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An Expensive Way to Ease California's Drought: Desalinization Plants

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:53 AM GMT on April 07, 2014

With the middle of April approaching, there is no significant precipitation in the forecast for California in the coming ten days, and there is a good chance that the California rainy season is at least 95% over. As wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, documents in his April 3 California Drought Update, the California rainy season lasts from October to mid-April, and typically only 10 - 15% of the rainy season precipitation falls after April 1. While enough precipitation fell over the past two months to prevent the current rainy season from hitting record low precipitation levels, the 2013 - 2014 rainy season was the third consecutive poor rainy season, leaving California in a dire drought situation. The winter of 2013 - 2014 had the most severe winter drought conditions since record keeping began in 1895, and California faces a long, dry summer with a Sierra snowpack that is only 33% of normal. The April 3, 2014 Drought Monitor is showing that 99.8% of California is in drought, with 95% of the state in Severe, Extreme, or Exceptional drought.


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending at 8pm EDT Sunday, April 13, 2014. No significant rain is expected to fall in California in the coming week. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Ways to Ease California's Drought
There is only one major river in the Southwest, the Colorado River, and in most years the flow in the river is far less than the amount of water allocated to stockholders drawing water from the great river. Over 30 million people depend on the Colorado River for their water, including much of Southern California, and the river irrigates farmland that produces 15% of the nation's food. Two major studies, one by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation in 2012, and one by the non-profit Pacific Institute in 2013, laid out five major ways that the Colorado River basin can get more water. As I outlined in Part 1 and 2 of this series last month, two ways to get more water for the thirsty Southwest are through conservation measures and cloud seeding. A much more expensive way--typically costing 2 to 20 times more than conservation techniques--is to make fresh water out of salt water using a desalinization plant.


Figure 2. Arizona's Yuma Desalting Plant, used to treat saline agricultural runoff and create fresh water. Image credit: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.

Desalinization Plants
Fresh water can be wrung out of the ocean by forcing it through filtration membranes used in the reverse osmosis process. The high pressures needed consume a lot of energy--even more energy than it takes to pump water from Northern California rivers to Los Angeles over a 2000'-high mountain obstacle. Desalinized water provides less than 1% of California's fresh water, and costs nearly double what water imported from Northern California rivers and the Colorado River costs. However, given that desalinized water is "drought-proof", there are efforts to greatly expand the creation of fresh water from the sea. The $734 million Carlsbad Desalination Project in San Diego County, California, scheduled to be completed in 2016, will generate about 56,000 acre-feet annually, at a projected cost of $2135 per acre-foot. This largest desalinization plant in the U.S. is projected to meet 7 percent of San Diego County’s demand in 2020, and will push up the typical home's water bill by $5 to $7 a month, according to the San Diego Water Authority. A sister plant has been proposed near Los Angeles. California currently has six operational desalinization plants, with three others that are partially or fully idled due to their high cost of operation. remains unused and has been partially dismantled, because the city found cheaper sources of water.

I’ll discuss several other ways California can get more water in future blogs posts in the coming weeks.

Jeff Masters

Drought

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I'm working on a blog on Ita. My first tropical weather blog on a specific storm in what seems like forever.



Btw, Cody, I will not be forecasting peak winds of 345mph.
Quoting 501. MAweatherboy1:
I'm working on a blog on Ita. My first tropical weather blog on a specific storm in what seems like forever.


Hey MA...

It seems to me that this storm has been sitting there like forever... sort of like Nadine... not going anywhere
Quoting 500. Jedkins01:



Me too, I had a dream an EF5 tornado tore through campus overnight and we had 18 inches of rain. The 18 inches of rain might happen, but not an EF5 tornado in Tallahassee. Well not impossible, but about the sane chance of a category 5 hurricane hitting D.C.


You kids dream of storms???? Boy, times have changed since I was 20.


Nice looking line of storms
Quoting 501. MAweatherboy1:
I'm working on a blog on Ita. My first tropical weather blog on a specific storm in what seems like forever.



Btw, Cody, I will not be forecasting peak winds of 345mph.


I seem to be the only one that churns them out on a consistent basis during Atlantic tropical season.

Well, maybe Levi too.

Just sayin'. :P
Quoting 502. trHUrrIXC5MMX:

Hey MA...

It seems to me that this storm has been sitting there like forever... sort of like Nadine... not going anywhere

Yeah, it's been a real slow mover. That's the big reason why the Solomon Islands made out so poorly.
507. beell
Quoting 390. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Meh.

That's two SPC busts in the matter of 5 days. They can't really be blamed, both Thursday and Sunday looked like potentially big days, but hopefully their verification gets better as we head farther into tornado season.


Curious how one qualifies a bust for Thursday. Which Outlook? 7AM, 8AM, 1130AM, 3PM. Do we only consider tornadoes or do we include hail and wind as well.

It is all rather subjective. I did not consider it a bust. Perfect? No. But I'm open to your thoughts.




Quoting 496. galvestonhurricane:
2 Miles East of Blanco public reports HAIL of half inch size (NWS)


You know there is some impressive forcing to see strong thunderstorms in a dry post frontal airmass. The air is very dry in that area, most of the reflectivity is probably hail rather than heavy rain:



San Ciriaco is also the longest lasting Atlantic hurricane in recorded history, lasting for 28 days (31 including subtropical time).

Longest lasting tropical cyclone. The longest lasting tropical cyclone lasted 31 days, it was named Hurricane/Typhoon John and traveled through the eastern Pacific Ocean from 11 August - 11 September 1994.
Quoting 509. Grothar:
San Ciriaco is also the longest lasting Atlantic hurricane in recorded history, lasting for 28 days (31 including subtropical time).

Longest lasting tropical cyclone. The longest lasting tropical cyclone lasted 31 days, it was named Hurricane/Typhoon John and traveled through the eastern Pacific Ocean from 11 August - 11 September 1994.


do you have a personal account from San Ciriaco...? you were around those days olde Gro!

lol
Quoting 507. beell:


Curious how one qualifies a bust for Thursday. Which Outlook? 7AM, 8AM, 1130AM, 3PM. Do we only consider tornadoes or do we include hail and wind as well.

It is all rather subjective. I did not consider it a bust. Perfect? No. But I'm open to your thoughts.




If it's not DOOM!!! it's a bust beell, just messing with you Cody. :)
Very interesting indeed.
513. txjac
Quoting 504. galvestonhurricane:



Nice looking line of storms



Do you think the southern part of that line will drop down in to Houston?
I would love to go to sleep with rain on the roof this evening

The southern part isnt shown in this image ...
Quoting 480. PensacolaDoug:


So now we're "sleep-casting"!!? That's a new one!!


Not to forecasters with new babies in the house :-)

Quoting 507. beell:


Curious how one qualifies a bust for Thursday. Which Outlook? 7AM, 8AM, 1130AM, 3PM. Do we only consider tornadoes or do we include hail and wind as well.

It is all rather subjective. I did not consider it a bust. Perfect? No. But I'm open to your thoughts.






I should note that I did not consider yesterday to be a bust either. The threat was known to be conditional several days in advance by the models; instability wasn't present, even though shear was.
Quoting 457. Dakster:


How about an ice storm then?


April 8 1972 DC area, ice pellets accumulated over a half inch.

Doesn't look like a repeat this year.
Quoting 512. Climate175:
Very interesting indeed.
Not interesting too me unless it shows up in a more realistic time frame. Quick who's on first?
LOL May Heat Wave.
Quoting 517. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Not interesting too me unless it shows up in a more realistic time frame. Quick who's on first?


Who's on 2nd.
Quoting 510. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


do you have a personal account from San Ciriaco...? you were around those days olde Gro!

lol



No, I don't smart aleck. I was still living in Greenland in 1899. :)
521. beell
Quoting 515. KoritheMan:


I should note that I did not consider yesterday to be a bust either. The threat was known to be conditional several days in advance by the models; instability wasn't present, even though shear was.


All under a SLGT risk. Complete with a 2AM EF2 in Mississippi. Possibly a good case for an ENHANCED risk-a 10% probability of a significant tornado
Quoting 521. beell:


All under a SLGT risk. Complete with a 2AM EF2 in Mississippi. Possibly a good case for an ENHANCED risk-a 10% probability of a significant tornado


Indeed.
I just want to say I got a score of 1050 in the PAA and I was accept to study the career of physics in the best university of Honduras. I am so happy I could make it,and now I am going to fight to be physicist.
I think we should have National Lurker Day this week. All lurkers should be required to at least say hello. It would be interesting to see how many there are. It must be in the thousands.

Duz yur blog bite????

Quoting 520. Grothar:



No, I don't smart aleck. I was still living in Greenland in 1899. :)
awwkay...
Quoting 523. allancalderini:
I just want to say I got a score of 1050 in the PAA and I was accept to study the career of physics in the best university of Honduras. I am so happy I could make it,and now I am going to fight to be physicist.
Congratulations Allan! :)
Quoting 486. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


what? you dream about this?

I did last night, lol. I was scrolling the blog right before I went to bed and I guess it translated into my sleep.

Quoting 507. beell:


Curious how one qualifies a bust for Thursday. Which Outlook? 7AM, 8AM, 1130AM, 3PM. Do we only consider tornadoes or do we include hail and wind as well.

It is all rather subjective. I did not consider it a bust. Perfect? No. But I'm open to your thoughts.





A hard question that I don't know how to translate into words. It really is subjective. I wouldn't consider less than a dozen "weak" tornadoes to verify a 15% hatched tornado outline. Moderate risks are supposed to signal more significant severe weather compared to a Slight risk, and I don't think Thursday's event was more significant.
Quoting 497. Grothar:


We're drier than Kori's sense of humor.


It takes a lot of talent to get this good.

I don't charge for lessons, either. :)
Quoting 524. Grothar:
I think we should have National Lurker Day this week. All lurkers should be required to at least say hello. It would be interesting to see how many there are. It must be in the thousands.

Duz yur blog bite????

Hopefully that will bring out some older members too.
Quoting 523. allancalderini:
I just want to say I got a score of 1050 in the PAA and I was accept to study the career of physics in the best university of Honduras. I am so happy I could make it,and now I am going to fight to be physicist.


Congrats Allan!!! Great job! :D
531. beell
Quoting 527. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I did last night, lol. I was scrolling the blog right before I went to bed and I guess it translated into my sleep.


A hard question that I don't know how to translate into words. It really is subjective. I wouldn't consider less than a dozen "weak" tornadoes to verify a 15% hatched tornado outline.


Fair enough. Hail and Wind?
Widespread reports of small hail (~.50") in south Austin
Quoting 527. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I did last night, lol. I was scrolling the blog right before I went to bed and I guess it translated into my sleep.


that tells me lots of freaky things...
534. txjac
Quoting 523. allancalderini:

I just want to say I got a score of 1050 in the PAA and I was accept to study the career of physics in the best university of Honduras. I am so happy I could make it,and now I am going to fight to be physicist.


Congratulations Allan! Your blog family is just as proud of you as your real family
Way to go!
Quoting 504. galvestonhurricane:


Nice looking line of storms

I just got hammered by those storms!
It's packing winds of 30 Mph and small hail. Heavy rains as well, already recorded 3/4 of an inch and I'm still smack dab in the middle of the storm.
Surprised the NWS wasn't all over this cell, pretty bad.
The first time I've experienced hail in a good while.
My power is out as well...
Quoting 523. allancalderini:
I just want to say I got a score of 1050 in the PAA and I was accept to study the career of physics in the best university of Honduras. I am so happy I could make it,and now I am going to fight to be physicist.


Awesome!
Quoting 523. allancalderini:
I just want to say I got a score of 1050 in the PAA and I was accept to study the career of physics in the best university of Honduras. I am so happy I could make it,and now I am going to fight to be physicist.



You're from Honduras?
Quoting 537. Jedkins01:



You're from Honduras?
San Pedro Sula to be exact... I think he told me once

Edit... La Ceiba
The line near Austin is definitely impressive for its environment - not much in the way of obvious forcing, and not much moisture to work with. That said, I don't see them making it to Houston (as much as I REALLY want the rain). Just too much dry air and lack of daytime heating to keep rolling.
540. beell
Quoting 535. TylerStanfield:

I just got hammered by those storms!
It's packing winds of 30 Mph and small hail. Heavy rains as well, already recorded 3/4 of an inch and I'm still smack dab in the middle of the storm.
Surprised the NWS wasn't all over this cell, pretty bad.
The first time I've experienced hail in a good while.



I'm surprised, analysis shows a a dry air mass with less than 1 inch PW and surface dewpoints in the 40's and 50's.

Whatever little total moisture is there must have pooled along a convergence zone, interesting to here from.
Quoting 537. Jedkins01:



You're from Honduras?
yep.
Quoting 538. trHUrrIXC5MMX:
San Pedro Sula to be exact... I think he told me once
Close,La Ceiba to be exact.
Quoting 536. KoritheMan:


Awesome!
Quoting 526. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Congratulations Allan! :)
Quoting 534. txjac:


Congratulations Allan! Your blog family is just as proud of you as your real family
Way to go!
Quoting 530. AtHomeInTX:


Congrats Allan!!! Great job! :D
Thanks everyone I really appreciate it. I just can't stop of smiling.I am really happy.The best part was when I told my mom and she told me she was really proud.
Quoting 542. allancalderini:
yep. Close,La Ceiba to be exact.Thanks everyone I really appreciate it. I just can't stop of smiling.I am really happy.The best part was when I told my mom and she told me she was really proud.


Nice! Congrats on the acceptance as well!

I always like seeing bloggers from other countries contributing, there are probably more international bloggers here than I'm aware of.
Quoting 543. Jedkins01:


Nice! Congrats on the acceptance as well!

I always like seeing bloggers from other countries contributing, there are probably more international bloggers here than I'm aware of.

you got another one right here
One time I was dreaming that a EF6 tornado with 400 mph winds 3 miles wide was slamming NYC and I was Ina bus watching.
Quoting allancalderini:
I just want to say I got a score of 1050 in the PAA and I was accept to study the career of physics in the best university of Honduras. I am so happy I could make it,and now I am going to fight to be physicist.

That's terrific news, Allan, I know you've been studying really hard for this. Are you going to university in Teguc?
Quoting 531. beell:


Fair enough. Hail and Wind?

Probably even harder. I don't know. How would you consider what a bust is?

How would you issue a Moderate risk for a long-lived QLCS that produces very few significant wind gusts?

Hey Txjac...
I totally missed your hurricane prediction... mind trying again?
Quoting 523. allancalderini:
I just want to say I got a score of 1050 in the PAA and I was accept to study the career of physics in the best university of Honduras. I am so happy I could make it,and now I am going to fight to be physicist.


Way to go. Good Luck in your Future.... Congrats..
Quoting 545. Haiyan2013:
One time I was dreaming that a EF6 tornado with 400 mph winds 3 miles wide was slamming NYC and I was Ina bus watching.


Glad that was just a dream.
Watch out for these now, that strong southerly flow as Jedkins alluded too, coupled with high surface CAPE are capapble of producing some strong downbursts.
Didn't notice any lighting with the cell that came throug here earlier, probably more back where the main line is.

552. txjac
Quoting 548. trHUrrIXC5MMX:

Hey Txjac...
I totally missed your hurricane prediction... mind trying again?



Such a nice guy to remember ...8-4-1
Quoting 550. Dakster:


Glad that was just a dream.
That's more like a nightmare.
Quoting 542. allancalderini:
yep. Close,La Ceiba to be exact.Thanks everyone I really appreciate it. I just can't stop of smiling.I am really happy.The best part was when I told my mom and she told me she was really proud.


AWESOME news. I wish you the best of luck. Don't forget about us little people on the blog when you make it big time.
Quoting 552. txjac:



Such a nice guy to remember ...8-4-1


Those sound like good numbers...

Getting any Rain????
556. txjac
Quoting 555. PedleyCA:



Those sound like good numbers...

Getting any Rain????



Sadly no rain as of yet ...and yesterday was a disappointment.
Still have my fingers crossed for later this evening



i hope nothing like this happens anytime soon...
Any rain in sight for South Florida. Gotta keep the pool filled and the grass watered. With a failing well it is fun to do both of those.

If this keeps up it will motivate me to drill a new well.. Well, take a sledge hammer to a piece of PVC pipe anyways. Only need to go down 15-20 feet at the most.
560. beell
Quoting 547. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Probably even harder. I don't know. How would you consider what a bust is?

How would you issue a Moderate risk for a long-lived QLCS that produces very few significant wind gusts?



Ok, that was bust in the other direction!

The guys here are funny

This is eyebrow raising stuff...

@UAHSWIRLL: There has not yet been an EF3 tornado in the U.S. this year! That's a record-breaker!

EDIT: This stat goes back to 1950 and no earlier.
Quoting 562. Bluestorm5:
This is eyebrow raising stuff...

@UAHSWIRLL: There has not yet been an EF3 tornado in the U.S. this year! That's a record-breaker!

EDIT: This stat goes back to 1950 and no earlier.


dat CAA
Quoting 561. Tazmanian:
The guys here are funny



Looks like the guy on the ground is peeing...
Quoting 564. Dakster:


Looks like the guy on the ground is peeing...


Cannot unsee.

Quoting 560. beell:


Ok, that was bust in the other direction!

Based on those reports just about the whole southeast US should have been under a moderate risk.
Quoting 565. KoritheMan:


Cannot unsee.

lol
568. txjac
Hmmph! Looks like I am going to miss out on rain ...the rain "circle" keeps getting smaller ...I am sitting here, ready to hear it on the roof ...come on now rain ...make my night

Quoting 568. txjac:
Hmmph! Looks like I am going to miss out on rain ...the rain "circle" keeps getting smaller ...I am sitting here, ready to hear it on the roof ...come on now rain ...make my night


Should I start doing my rain dances again?

We need some rain to bring up the plants we just put in. Just not too much.

Bring it.
Told ya I was working on a blog. It's not very long or technical tonight but if you're interested in information on Ita you might want to give it a read :)

Link

National Lurker Week! That's great, so here's a lurker popping in to say hello...
573. txjac
Quoting 569. Tornado6042008X:


And U am off to water my plants before going to bed ...that will make it rain! LOL



Should I start doing my rain dances again?




Go for it ...would love the rain
Quoting 520. Grothar:



No, I don't smart aleck. I was still living in Greenland in 1899. :)


How was the pollen there?
Quoting 572. EnufStorms:
National Lurker Week! That's great, so here's a lurker popping in to say hello...
I like the handle too. You joined after the busy '04, '05, '07, & '08 seasons.
Quoting 575. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I like the handle too. You joined after the busy '04, '05, '07, & '08 seasons.


I still very much lament that I didn't possess any real meteorological knowledge during 2004 and 2005. I relied on TWC, and little else.

Those seasons would have been even more exciting to me...
Quoting 546. sar2401:

That's terrific news, Allan, I know you've been studying really hard for this. Are you going to university in Teguc?
Yes Sar but it looks that all the work pay off,and yep I am going to take the generals in my city and then I will move to the capital to take the advance classes.Thanks everyone for congratulating I really really appreciate.
Quoting 574. georgevandenberghe:


How was the pollen there?



Pretty bad. Here is a picture of the first Viking landing on Greenland.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ITA, CATEGORY THREE (15U)
11:15 AM EST April 8 2014
================================

At 10:00 AM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita, Category Three (973 hPa) located at 11.8S 153.4E or 1080 km east of Lockhart River and 1000 km northeast of Cairns has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as stationary,

Hurricane Force Winds
=================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=============
70 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
100 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
100 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
70 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
================
12 HRS 11.6S 152.4E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS 11.7S 151.1E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS 12.5S 147.8E - 85 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS 13.7S 145.3E - 90 knots (CAT 4)

Additional Information
==================

Using EMBD Centre with a 1.1 degree LG surround, yielding a DT of 4.5. MET is also 4.5, though it is arguable that the 21Z image from 27 hours ago had a LG eye with a LG surround, though this was a very transient feature at the time. Now 12 hour-old Ascat data showed numerous values near the center of at least 50 knots, broadly consistent with the current DT.

TC Ita remains near stationary, trapped between mid level ridges over eastern Australia and to Ita's east. The mid level ridge over eastern Australia is expected to ridge zonally out into the southwestern reaches of the Coral Sea over the next few days, thereby inducing the forecast westward motion. Towards the end of the week global modelling varies in its treatment of an approaching upper trough, with some models introducing a low amplitude upper trough and thereby allowing Ita to move into the Gulf of Carpentaria, whilst other global models introduce an upper trough of sufficient amplitude that Ita remains in the Coral Sea or moves over northern Queensland.

Ita lies in a low shear environment with good upper level outflow. The system is expected to remain in an environment that ordinarily would be expected to be favorable for development, though allowances have been made for the high terrain over Papua New Guinea, which may hinder development over the short term.
Quoting 572. EnufStorms:
National Lurker Week! That's great, so here's a lurker popping in to say hello...


Now that wasn't so bad, was it?
Quoting 523. allancalderini:
I just want to say I got a score of 1050 in the PAA and I was accept to study the career of physics in the best university of Honduras. I am so happy I could make it,and now I am going to fight to be physicist.


Big congrats, Allan. Now you can fight with Levi for real. Good Luck. We are all very proud of you.
582. beell
Hi, Gro! I'm a lunker here also!
583. beell
its sitting right there...someone should go for it.
Quoting 581. Grothar:


Big congrats, Allan. Now you can fight with Levi for real. Good Luck. We are all very proud of you.


I admire friendly competition.
Quoting 582. beell:
Hi, Gro! I'm a lunker here also!


yeah, sure!!!!! lol Quit bragging.
586. beell
Quoting 585. Grothar:


yeah, sure!!!!! lol Quit bragging.


You had a golden opportunity to call me a dumb bass...
Quoting 586. beell:


You had a golden opportunity to call me a dumb bass...


lmao
Quoting 586. beell:


You had a golden opportunity to call me a dumb bass...


I thought that was implied. :) At least that is what most lunkers are. Too funny, beel.
Quoting 551. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Watch out for these now, that strong southerly flow as Jedkins alluded too, coupled with high surface CAPE are capapble of producing some strong downbursts.
Didn't notice any lighting with the cell that came throug here earlier, probably more back where the main line is.



You're right. This rain shower now moving into the Orlando area has really caused the wind to pick up. It reminds me of the wind in a tropical storm's outer rain band-and this is not even a thunderstorm. I don't know if atmospheric conditions will be similar as the actual line moves through in a few hours, but it could get quite gusty.
Before, I was really serious about lurkers stopping by once in awhile. I go to a lot of blogs and see handles with which I am not at all familiar. Some are the nicest entries and seem to be just nice people. I would not want anyone to do anything they wouldn't want to however. After all, I lurked from 2005 until 2009 before I joined. And it was quite awhile before anyone even answered me, which is perfectly understandable. It is just that I do see such humorous entries and some with excellent information, that I wish some would share it here sometimes.

P.S. (Just don't ask them what they think of AGW)
** Chem 2 Study break post **

Florida Radar:



Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Outer Banks


Texas Radar:

From the Sun Sentinel


Hurricane facts: Florida hit more often in even years

Link
Pictures of damage from the microburst earlier today at school.







In case you haven't heard, a microburst occurred in the vicinity of KDAB around 6:45 pm. It caused some light damage to campus buildings, a few ERAU aircraft, and flipped a Pheonix East Cessna 172 operating on the ground. Reporter Zack Wilkinson provided this photo.

*credit of these pictures goes out to the wonderful students at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University.
Sitting here beercasting on a Monday Night.

Quoting 593. GTstormChaserCaleb:

In case you haven't heard, a microburst occurred in the vicinity of KDAB around 6:45 pm.
I didn't. But now I did.
Quoting 568. txjac:
Hmmph! Looks like I am going to miss out on rain ...the rain "circle" keeps getting smaller ...I am sitting here, ready to hear it on the roof ...come on now rain ...make my night


Bet your getting more than here. Since 1/1/14 (.69)...
Quoting 585. Grothar:


yeah, sure!!!!! lol Quit bragging.


What are the qualifications to be considered a lurker?
It's still hot outside even at 11:30pm.


Quoting 598. StormTrackerScott:
It's still hot outside even at 11:30pm.

10:30 PM*.
Quoting 598. StormTrackerScott:
It's still hot outside even at 11:30pm.



Yikes.... was 89.1 here, is 75.4 now and you all had a 3 hour head start.
Time to Bail - All you East Siders Stay Safe....
Quoting 600. PedleyCA:


Yikes.... was 89.1 here, is 75.4 now and you all had a 3 hour head start.


Dewpoints in the low 70's as well. These temps maybe as low as we go tonight.

Bandz a make Scott dance, bandz a make Scott dance...

Quoting 598. StormTrackerScott:
It's still hot outside even at 11:30pm.

Yeah it almost feels like a mid-summer night. You know that storm took me by surprise. I was following it on NEXRAD Base and Composite and was only expecting a brief heavy downpour. The winds really surprised me and a lot of my friends here. My roommate said it was raining sideways.
Quoting 604. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Yeah it almost feels like a mid-summer night. You know that storm took me by surprise. I was following it on NEXRAD Base and Composite and was only expecting a brief heavy downpour. The winds really surprised me and a lot of my friends here. My roommate said it was raining sideways.


We had a little shower here and winds gusted to 30 just not that long ago. Strange as it was only a light shower. Must be some dry air in the mid levels causing these winds to surface as showers move by.


SPC AC 080100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT MON APR 07 2014

VALID 080100Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR SERN GA AND NRN
FL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR ERN NC...

...SYNOPSIS...
EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 994 MB LOW OVER SWRN
OH...WITH THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
MIDDLE AND SRN ATLANTIC COASTS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SRN
EXTENT OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NRN FL BY 12Z TUESDAY.

...SERN GA/NRN FL...
A BAND OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM FAR SERN GA SWWD THROUGH NRN FL
TO THE NERN GULF WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE
INDIVIDUAL STORMS/LINES OF STORMS TEND TO TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THIS
REGION. DESPITE RELATIVELY MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER THIS
DISCUSSION AREA...40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT AN
ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR A
TORNADO THREAT REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
THIS REGION...AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W/NW.

...FAR ERN NC...
A CONTINUED INFLUX OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR INTO FAR ERN NC THIS
FORECAST PERIOD COMBINED WITH FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF SSWLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT PERSISTS ACROSS FAR ERN NC. THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR LATER TONIGHT SUCH THAT A
TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...AND SIMILARLY...STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...UPPER OH VALLEY...
ELEVATED MUCAPE OF 300-600 J/KG PER 00Z ILN/PIT SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE
UPPER OH VALLEY AND EWD INTO CENTRAL PA. WEAK INSTABILITY AND WEAK
BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER LIMIT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS.

..PETERS.. 04/08/2014

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0349Z (11:49PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
Quoting 599. KoritheMan:

10:30 PM*.

11:30 PM**
Caleb did the NWS get any obs from the mircoburst at KDAB?

Quoting 593. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Pictures of damage from the microburst earlier today at school.


In case you haven't heard, a microburst occurred in the vicinity of KDAB around 6:45 pm. It caused some light damage to campus buildings, a few ERAU aircraft, and flipped a Pheonix East Cessna 172 operating on the ground. Reporter Zack Wilkinson provided this photo.

*credit of these pictures goes out to the wonderful students at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University.
Quoting 607. TropicalAnalystwx13:

11:30 PM**
As always, I am 20 minutes ahead of Cody ;)
Had 0.05" in a quick rain earlier.

It was really humid & warm..taste of summer.

Quoting 609. BaltimoreBrian:
As always, I am 20 minutes ahead of Cody ;)
Everyone's always ahead of Cody in some fashion.

:)
Ita
For Zip Code 33199 (SW Miami)

"Overnight A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. South wind 3 to 6 mph.

Tuesday A chance of showers, mainly after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 91. Windy, with a south wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 16 to 21 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then a slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. West wind around 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%."

I'd like winter back please
TRMM of Ita. The red line isn't oriented straight like it usually is..

Quoting 602. StormTrackerScott:


Dewpoints in the low 70's as well. These temps maybe as low as we go tonight.



That's just ludacris.

They need to go lower...
Quoting 608. BaltimoreBrian:
Caleb did the NWS get any obs from the mircoburst at KDAB?

I'm not sure, just sent Scott Spratt, the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the Melbourne office an email to see what they got. I suspect it was a microburst from a collapsing thunderstorm as at the time there were other cells building. I think they call it back building if I'm not mistaken. Or it was outflow given off from the storm. Something along those lines.
Quoting 616. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I'm not sure, just sent Scott Spratt, the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the Melbourne office an email to see what they got. I suspect it was a microburst from a dying cell as at the time there were other cells building. I think they call it back building if I'm not mistaken.


I'm going with dry mid level air. Wet micro burst are very common when it's really hot outside and can catch you off guard. Hence what happened in Dallas in the 80's.

Delta Air Lines Flight 191 was an airline service from Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport, Florida to Los Angeles International Airport, California, by way of Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport. On the afternoon of August 2, 1985, Delta Air Lines Flight 191 crashed while on approach to Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport during a thunderstorm, killing 8 of 11 crew members, 126 of 152 passengers on board, and one person on the ground. Two people later died 30 days or more after the crash, bringing the total fatalities to 137.
A microburst is a very localized column of sinking air caused by a small and intense downdraft within a thunderstorm. There are two types of microbursts: wet microbursts and dry microbursts. They go through three stages in their life cycle: the downburst, outburst, and cushion stages. The scale and suddenness of a microburst makes it a great danger to aircraft due to the low-level wind shear caused by its gust front, with several fatal crashes having been attributed to the phenomenon over the past several decades.

Link

Delta Airlines flight 191 went down because of a microburst.

Link
Quoting 618. GTstormChaserCaleb:
A microburst is a very localized column of sinking air caused by a small and intense downdraft within a thunderstorm. There are two types of microbursts: wet microbursts and dry microbursts. They go through three stages in their life cycle: the downburst, outburst, and cushion stages. The scale and suddenness of a microburst makes it a great danger to aircraft due to the low-level wind shear caused by its gust front, with several fatal crashes having been attributed to the phenomenon over the past several decades.

Link

Delta Airlines flight 191 went down because of a microburst.

Link

Scott you might be right in a sense.


Scary how you and I made the same post at the sametime.
2 great minds think alike. :D
Have a goodnight Wunder friends. Don't let the bed bugs bite. :P
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Pictures of damage from the microburst earlier today at school.







In case you haven't heard, a microburst occurred in the vicinity of KDAB around 6:45 pm. It caused some light damage to campus buildings, a few ERAU aircraft, and flipped a Pheonix East Cessna 172 operating on the ground. Reporter Zack Wilkinson provided this photo.

*credit of these pictures goes out to the wonderful students at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University.

Pretty impressive damage. Is there a weather station at the school?
My wish for rain is here, next time, I'd rather my wish to win powerball was fulfilled. But I will take what I can get.
Quoting 623. Dakster:
My wish for rain is here, next time, I'd rather my wish to win powerball was fulfilled. But I will take what I can get.


The odds of that are about the odds of me getting my Gulf Coast major hurricane chase this year (El Nino). :)
It would be my luck to catch the flu after going all winter without it. Blah.
Quoting 625. TropicalAnalystwx13:
It would be my luck to catch the flu after going all winter without it. Blah.


I didn't go to the doctor, but what me and my brother had was symptomatic of it with back in January. I can confidently say I hadn't felt so bad in years.

Careful.
Quoting 624. KoritheMan:


The odds of that are about the odds of me getting my Gulf Coast major hurricane chase this year (El Nino). :)


I think my odds are slightly better, personally.

Quoting 625. TropicalAnalystwx13:
It would be my luck to catch the flu after going all winter without it. Blah.


You are supposed to catch and release the flu, not hang on to it. My son got a stomach flu, but it only lasted a couple of days. I got the Flu shot, and knock on wood, haven't had the Flu this year yet. (Until tomorrow, because I had to say that)
Quoting 625. TropicalAnalystwx13:
It would be my luck to catch the flu after going all winter without it. Blah.


Haven't had the flu since I was a wee lad.

Epic hand-washing skills for the win.
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 11:15 am EST on Tuesday 8 April 2014
At 10 am EST Tuesday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita (Category 3) with central
pressure 973 hPa was located over the northern Coral Sea near latitude 11.8
south longitude 153.4 east, which is about 1080 km east of Lockhart River and
1000 km northeast of Cairns.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ITA, CATEGORY 3, has stalled south of Papua New Guinea and is
about 1080 km east of Lockhart River, and 970 km east northeast of Cooktown.

Tropical Cyclone Ita is expected to remain too far offshore to have a
significant influence on the weather along the Queensland coast through until
the end of Wednesday; however later in the week the threat may increase over
Cape York Peninsula as the system moves closer to the coast.
The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 5 pm EST.





+72hr: 11/0000: 13.7S 145.3E: 145 [270]: 090 [165]: 955hPa
Quoting 613. FIUStormChaser:
For Zip Code 33199 (SW Miami)

"Overnight A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. South wind 3 to 6 mph.

Tuesday A chance of showers, mainly after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 91. Windy, with a south wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 16 to 21 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then a slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. West wind around 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%."

I'd like winter back please


Me too. 91F sucks.
Quoting 628. Astrometeor:


Haven't had the flu since I was a wee lad.

Epic hand-washing skills for the win.


And apparently you don't have kids... They seem to bring all kinds of stuff home with them and I don't care if you wash your hands until their red and sore, you will get whatever they come home with.
Quoting 631. Dakster:


And apparently you don't have kids... They seem to bring all kinds of stuff home with them and I don't care if you wash your hands until their red and sore, you will get whatever they come home with.


Probably why I get sick more often than others. My dad has four kids (I don't live with him) besides me and my brother. It's just statistical probability.
The cold front is finally making its way through SE AL. The temperature has dropped form 66 to 57 in the last hour, and the front kicked off a skinny little squall line that gave me 20 minutes of torrential rains, adding .39" inches to my previous total of 5.07", so 5.46" total now. This just has to be the end of the rain. Half the yard is still flooded. Our drainage is pretty good, and this is longest I've ever seen this much standing water.
Quoting 625. TropicalAnalystwx13:
It would be my luck to catch the flu after going all winter without it. Blah.


I managed to avoid norovirus outbreak here at UNCA this winter as well as a nasty strain of flu virus. Tough winter for school's health.
Quoting 631. Dakster:


And apparently you don't have kids... They seem to bring all kinds of stuff home with them and I don't care if you wash your hands until their red and sore, you will get whatever they come home with.


I am a kid Dak. I go to school with 1,200 kids, many willing to go to school sick just to keep their 100s intact.

I have a friend who sat for a AP test with pneumonia. She got a 4.
Quoting 604. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Yeah it almost feels like a mid-summer night. You know that storm took me by surprise. I was following it on NEXRAD Base and Composite and was only expecting a brief heavy downpour. The winds really surprised me and a lot of my friends here. My roommate said it was raining sideways.


There was no severe thunderstorm warning either, typically it takes at least minimal hurricane force winds to blow out windows like that. Especially at a University where windows are built to a higher standard. That thunderstorm brought serious wind.

I always say that some of the best weather events I've experienced is random severe thunderstorms in Florida that had little prior expectation.


I suspect the lack of a warning was that there was a sea breeze pinned right over Daytona Beach, the thunderstorm flared up dramatically in intensity as it hit the sea breeze leading to rapid severe level down drafts, I would say it happened and then moved offshore before the NWS could even react. A crazy an interesting event.

Also, there was deep moisture at the surface but dry air aloft, high dew points, a lot of heat, dry air aloft, and strong winds off the surface, and I think a sea breeze collision all came together within a couple minutes to cause that chaos at your school
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOMENG
11:00 AM PhST April 8 2014
================================================= ==========

Tropical Depression "DOMENG" has changed course to northwest as it continues to move slowly

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Domeng [Peipah] (1000 hPa) located at 7.5N 130.9E or 550 km east of Davao City has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 3 knots.

Additional Information
=================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 5.0–15.0 mm per hour (moderate to heavy) within the 400 km diameter of the tropical depression.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11PM tonight.


it doesnt look super powerful at the moment
This tornado outbreak passed a F3 within 1/2 mile of a little Astro in the tornado position. So exciting but really scary at the same time because everyone knew there was a tornado and it was destroying people's homes.

You could say it cemented my interest in weather.

On April 7, 2006...
The deadliest tornado outbreak since the Super Outbreak of 1974 strikes Middle Tennessee. Eleven tornadoes touch down across the mid state, including an F3 storm that kills 7 people in Gallatin, injuring another 128. Two separate tornadoes strike Warren County, killing 3. Widespread hail also occurs. Four-inch hailstones are reported in Ashland City, and 3¼ hail occurs in Hillsdale (Macon County). Three-inch hail is reported in Centerville, with baseball-size hail occurring in several other locations. This is the 9th largest tornado outbreak to ever hit Middle Tennessee.
Quoting 641. Astrometeor:
This tornado outbreak passed a F3 within 1/2 mile of a little Astro in the tornado position. So exciting but really scary at the same time because everyone knew there was a tornado and it was destroying people's homes.

You could say it cemented my interest in weather.

On April 7, 2006...
The deadliest tornado outbreak since the Super Outbreak of 1974 strikes Middle Tennessee. Eleven tornadoes touch down across the mid state, including an F3 storm that kills 7 people in Gallatin, injuring another 128. Two separate tornadoes strike Warren County, killing 3. Widespread hail also occurs. Four-inch hailstones are reported in Ashland City, and 3¼ hail occurs in Hillsdale (Macon County). Three-inch hail is reported in Centerville, with baseball-size hail occurring in several other locations. This is the 9th largest tornado outbreak to ever hit Middle Tennessee.


I'm craving a severe weather outbreak on my birthday (Friday).

If only yesterday's front was just a tad more amplified...
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ITA, CATEGORY THREE (15U)
5:15 PM EST April 8 2014
================================

At 4:00 PM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita, Category Three (978 hPa) located at 11.8S 152.9E or 1030 km east of Lockhart River and 920 km east northeast of Cooktown has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 2 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=============
70 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
100 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
100 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
70 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/S0.0/06 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
================
12 HRS 11.7S 151.7E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS 11.9S 150.2E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS 12.8S 146.4E - 90 knots (CAT 4)
72 HRS 14.1S 143.9E - 95 knots (CAT 4)

Additional Information
==================

Using EMBD Centre with a 0.7 degree LG surround, yielding a DT of 4.5. MET is also 4.5, with no development evident in the past 6 hours.

TC Ita has commenced its expected westward track over the past few hours, though the latest [06UTC] position fix is only fair. The mid level ridge over eastern Australia is expected to continue ridging zonally out into the southwestern reaches of the Coral Sea over the next few days, further inducing the westward motion. Towards the end of the week global modelling varies in its treatment of an approaching upper trough, with most models introducing a low amplitude upper trough and allowing a westward motion across Cape York Peninsula before capturing the system and dragging it southwards over land. A much smaller number of forecast models introduce the southward motion earlier in the forecast period, allowing the system to move southwards along the east coast of Queensland, though these scenarios are outliers at the moment.

Ita lies in a low shear environment with good upper level outflow. The system is expected to remain in an environment that ordinarily would be expected to be favorable for development, though allowances have been made for the high terrain over Papua New Guinea, which may hinder development over the short term and is unlikely to be well resolved by global models.
Good Morning!..no rain here yet but winds picking up...
rains should get to me later today.............
this Sig-Tornado says later today we may see some here..
well a stormy day ahead for us later today.......
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. A WIDESPREAD SEVERE OUTBREAK IS NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER A
FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE
HEAVY RAIN MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS THE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.
Does yur dog bite?








He's got teeth, don't he?


The only record high broken yesterday was Melbourne, as i suspected, Orlando and surrounding was def Hot but did not get to 92/93 degrees. Sorry Scotty, cant trust the radio forecasts you hear on the way to work. After today's soaking the weather will get back to average.

... Record high temperature set at Melbourne...

A record high temperature of 91 degrees was set at Melbourne today.
This breaks the old record of 90 last set in 1960.

Melbourne area records date back to August 1937.

Seems like the rain is moving in later than what was forecasted, is it just me?

Quoting 572. EnufStorms:
National Lurker Week! That's great, so here's a lurker popping in to say hello...


we have a week? a whole week of more non-posting :)
Quoting 652. StormWx:
Seems like the rain is moving in later than what was forecasted, is it just me?



I'm hoping so.
I'm down in Fort Myers and have some appointments the first half of the day. I would hate to have to run through the rain.
Local news is showing the rain getting into our area about mid day and lasting until this evening.
Quoting 578. Grothar:



Pretty bad. Here is a picture of the first Viking landing on Greenland.



I thought that picture was what they sent to the people in Iceland to make Greenland appear warmer than it really was.
Good Morning


Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

Our graphic indicates current idea and worry about as much/ more near US coast as deep tropics pic.twitter.com/mFUSX87QVK



Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning


Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

Our graphic indicates current idea and worry about as much/ more near US coast as deep tropics pic.twitter.com/mFUSX87QVK





I just get a feeling we are due for a major hurricane to hit the US. Looking at these numbers, its hard to think we aren't due.

The last major (category 3-5) hurricane to hit the US was Wilma, on October 24, 2005. It has been 3,088 days since then, the longest major hurricane free period in US history.

8 years, 5 months, 2 weeks, and 1 day

Total Weeks:441

Total Hours:74,112

Total Minutes:4,446,720

Total Seconds:266,803,200
storms almost to me,just sprikles and wind gusts so far..
once that stormy line moves thru doesnt look too bad afterwards,just some rain which we can always use here.
Quoting 651. StormWx:
The only record high broken yesterday was Melbourne, as i suspected, Orlando and surrounding was def Hot but did not get to 92/93 degrees. Sorry Scotty, cant trust the radio forecasts you hear on the way to work. After today's soaking the weather will get back to average.

... Record high temperature set at Melbourne...

A record high temperature of 91 degrees was set at Melbourne today.
This breaks the old record of 90 last set in 1960.

Melbourne area records date back to August 1937.



Your an ass I mean really as most areas did get 92 or 93
On the edge of the wedge here in College Park. Definitely feels warm and humid although temps and dewpoints are only in the mid 50s. We were on the edge all night with much cooler (40s) to our west.

Garden is marginally too wet to work but I got onions, peas, broccoli, potatoes and lettuce in Friday and Sunday. Clear plastic covers have warmed the soil but another frost is still a near certainty this early. Nothing planted is vulnerable but potatoes will be in three weeks. Yields are better in cool weather though so there's the conundrum. need cool weather but not frost tolerant.

Local Bradford pears have STILL not bloomed but expect them finally today or tomorrow. And my oak is starting to show small (but pollen packed.. here it comes!) buds.
Quoting 657. StormWx:


I just get a feeling we are due for a major hurricane to hit the US. Looking at these numbers, its hard to think we aren't due.

The last major (category 3-5) hurricane to hit the US was Wilma, on October 24, 2005. It has been 3,088 days since then, the longest major hurricane free period in US history.

8 years, 5 months, 2 weeks, and 1 day

Total Weeks:441

Total Hours:74,112

Total Minutes:4,446,720

Total Seconds:266,803,200
Or 266.8 million billion nanoseconds...

Seriously, though, there is of course no such thing as "due" where hurricanes are concerned. Sure, the U.S. could be hit by five or six majors this year--but we could just as easily go another 20 years with nothing but the odd landfalling tropical storm. (And that last sounds pretty good, innit?)
Quoting Neapolitan:
Or 266.8 million billion nanoseconds...

Seriously, though, there is of course no such thing as "due" where hurricanes are concerned. Sure, the U.S. could be hit by five or six majors this year--but we could just as easily go another 20 years with nothing but the odd landfalling tropical storm. (And that last sounds pretty good, innit?)


I of course hope there would never be another major hurricane hit. Seeing as though we may have an El Nino this year we'll have to see how the hurricane season plays out.
You see D.C.We had our longest 2 inch snow free streak on record.That ended this winter with multiple snow storms exceeded 2 inches at R.N.A this year.I exceeded 5 inches on multiple occasions.This winter definitely made up for the others.

Point is I think that once we get our first major I suspect they won't stop coming to make up for lost time.

Point is.After the very dry 2012 we are now stuck in this never ending wet pattern.
Quoting 656. ncstorm:
Good Morning


Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

Our graphic indicates current idea and worry about as much/ more near US coast as deep tropics pic.twitter.com/mFUSX87QVK



I see weather bell is calling doom for my area (J.B still wants his cat 3+ storm to run up the east coast).What a way to start the morning...lol.I'm off.See ya.

Video of Belhaven NC tornado:

Link
Quoting 669. washingtonian115:
I see weather bell is calling doom for my area (J.B still wants his cat 3+ storm to run up the east coast).What a way to start the morning...lol.I'm off.See ya.


LOL..he loves the doom on the east coast..he wants that Cat 5 to hit NY for sure..have a good one..
Well we can see where the Front is.

Quoting 666. StormWx:


Only Fort Pierce reached 92 yesterday. No record of 93 anywhere in the state. Everywhere else was 88-90. Sorry Scott.

FLORIDA TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE
: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
: 830 PM EDT MON APR 07 2014

:...HIGHEST TEMPERATURE LAST 18 HOURS...LOWEST LAST 18 HOURS...
:...PRECIPITATION LAST 24 HOURS...DATA AS OF 0000 UTC
:
.B MFL 0407 E DH19/TAIRZS/TAIRZI/PPDRZZ
:
AAF : APALACHICOLA : 77 / 71 / 0.73
BKV : BROOKSVILLE : 89 / 60 / 0.00
CEW : CRESTVIEW : 75 / 67 / 1.23
CTY : CROSS CITY : 82 / 66 / 0.01
DAB : DAYTONA BEACH : 89 / 68 / 0.15
DTS : DESTIN : 72 / 70 / 1.19
FLL : FORT LAUDERDALE INTL : 87 / 76 / 0.00
FXE : FORT LAUDERDALE EXEC : 89 / 75 / 0.00
FMY : FORT MYERS : 89 / 70 / 0.00
RSW : FORT MYERS / SW REG AP : 89 / 68 / 0.00
FPR : FORT PIERCE : 92 / 61 / 0.00
GNV : GAINESVILLE : 87 / 64 / T
JAX : JACKSONVILLE : 82 / 61 / 0.03
EYW : KEY WEST : 84 / 77 / 0.00
LEE : LEESBURG : 89 / 71 / 0.00
MTH : MARATHON : 86 / 77 / 0.01
MAI : MARIANA : 73 / 66 / 2.50
MLB : MELBOURNE : 91 / 68 / 0.11
MIA : MIAMI : 85 / 75 / 0.00
APF : NAPLES : 88 / 70 / 0.00
OPF : OPA LOCKA : 87 / 74 / 0.00
MCO : ORLANDO INTL : 91 / 69 / T
ORL : ORLANDO EXEC : 90 / 70 / 0.00
ECP : PANAMA CITY : 75 / 68 / 1.69
HWO : PEMBROKE PINES : 88 / 73 / 0.00
PNS : PENSACOLA : 78 / 68 / 1.03
PMP : POMPANO BEACH : 86 / 76 / 0.00
PGD : PUNTA GORDA : 91 / 68 / 0.00
SFB : SANFORD : 91 / 71 / 0.00
SRQ : SARASOTA / BRADENTON : 84 / 66 / 0.00
SPG : ST. PETERSBURG : 83 / 71 / 0.00
PIE : ST. PETERSBURG/CLEARWATER: 86 / 68 / 0.00
TLH : TALLAHASSEE : 79 / 68 / 1.17
TPA : TAMPA : 83 / 70 / 0.00
VRB : VERO BEACH : 88 / 64 / 0.09
GIF : WINTER HAVEN : 90 / 68 / 0.00
TMB : W KENDALL TAMIAMI AP : 90 / 72 / 0.00
PBI : WEST PALM BEACH : 87 / 75 / 0.00

High Temps 04/07/14
Good morning everyone. Immokalee Regional Airport reached a high of 93 yesterday.

Link
Hmm.. yesterday's intensity models for ITA were not too off... with many predicting cat 4 in a few days....

They remain near the same today, with about half the models peaking at moderate cat 4 strength.





loop here.
Quoting 670. Chapelhill:

Video of Belhaven NC tornado:

Link


Nice video - wish I could hear the wind/storm vs. the music though.
Quoting Torito:
Hmm.. yesterday's intensity models for ITA were not too off... with many predicting cat 4 in a few days....

They remain near the same today, with about half the models peaking at moderate cat 4 strength.





loop here.


But the BOM and the JTWC have 2 different tracks
Who will be right, only time will tell.



Ita:

Link
well just rain by me,hardly any wind,line must have weakend....
Quoting 665. Neapolitan:
Or 266.8 million billion nanoseconds...

Seriously, though, there is of course no such thing as "due" where hurricanes are concerned. Sure, the U.S. could be hit by five or six majors this year--but we could just as easily go another 20 years with nothing but the odd landfalling tropical storm. (And that last sounds pretty good, innit?)
I am with you on that..
should be over in a few hours...............
no el nino as enso values are dropping?.... ausies don't think so

modoki el nino?.....not according to the aussies

spring time el nino?....aussies say nope


super el nino?....aussies are mum on the subject


Here's their wrap up.....


El Niño likely to develop in winter
Issued on Tuesday 8 April 2014 |
It is now likely (estimated at a greater than 70% chance) that an El Niño will develop during the southern hemisphere winter. Although the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral, surface and sub-surface ocean temperatures have warmed considerably in recent weeks, consistent with a state of rapid transition. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate continued warming of the central Pacific Ocean in coming months. Most models predict sea surface temperatures will reach El Niño thresholds during the coming winter season.
El Niño is often, but not always, associated with below normal rainfall across large parts of southern and inland eastern Australia during the second half of the year. The strength of an El Niño does not always indicate how much it will influence Australian rainfall. Historically there are examples where weak events have resulted in widespread drought across large parts of Australia, while at other times strong events have resulted in relatively modest impacts. It is too early to determine the strength of this potential El Niño. Daytime temperatures tend to be above normal over southern Australia during El Niño.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently in a neutral state. Model outlooks indicate the IOD will remain neutral through late autumn and early winter. The chance of a positive IOD event occurring will increase if an El Niño develops.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ITA, CATEGORY THREE (15U)
10:41 PM EST April 8 2014
================================

At 10:00 PM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita, Category Three (978 hPa) located at 11.7S 152.5E or 1010 km east of Lockhart River and 890 km east northeast of Cooktown has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 4 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=================
25 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=============
80 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
130 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
130 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
80 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.5/W0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
================
12 HRS 11.8S 151.1E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS 12.1S 149.3E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS 13.0S 145.9E - 95 knots (CAT 4)
72 HRS 14.3S 143.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1) - overland south of Coen, Queensland

Additional Information
==================

DT obtained using center embedded by 0.9 deg in white is 5.0. MET considering a 24 hour W- trend is 3.0. PAT is 3.5. PAT used as final T since embedded center pattern not considered repesentative with the cloud structure has weakening slightly. Final T held at 4.0 due to constraints on weakening. CI held at 4.5 for initial weakening.

TC Ita has commenced its expected westward track. The mid level ridge over eastern Australia is expected to continue ridging zonally out into the southwestern reaches of the Coral Sea over the next few days, further inducing the westward motion. Towards the end of the week global modelling varies in its treatment of an approaching upper trough, with most models introducing a low amplitude upper trough and allowing a westward motion across Cape York Peninsula before capturing the system and dragging it southwards over land. A much smaller number of forecast models introduce the southward motion earlier in the forecast period, allowing the system to move southwards along the east coast of Queensland, though these scenarios are outliers at the moment.

Ita lies in a low shear environment with good upper level outflow. The system is expected to remain in an environment that ordinarily would be expected to be favorable for development, though allowances have been made for the high terrain over Papua New Guinea, which may hinder development over the short term and is unlikely to be well resolved by global models.
6Z GFS..far out BUT................
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #45
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM PEIPAH (T1404)
21:00 PM JST April 8 2014
====================================

Sea East Of Mindanao

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Peipah (1000 hPa) located at 8.8N 130.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 9 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
210 NM from the center in north quadrant
120 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS 9.6N 129.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East of Mindanao
48 HRS 10.3N 128.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East of the Philippines
72 HRS 11.1N 127.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East of the Philippines
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Good morning everyone. Immokalee Regional Airport reached a high of 93 yesterday.

Link


Good morning, Caleb. I asked yesterday but I think it got lost in the noise. Does your school have a weather station that might have captured any of the data from yesterday's storm? Was that 172 at your school or an airport? Was it tied down when the storm hit? Any of those high wing Cessna's seem to have a unique aerodynamic quality of being able to catch wind under the wings during a storm and flip. Back in the days when I was still flying and was part owner of a 172, I never left it unless it was well tied down, regardless of the forecast. I've probably seen 10 of those planes turned turtle over my flying life, and it always happened when an unexpected storm came up.
Quoting 682. ricderr:
no el nino as enso values are dropping?.... ausies don't think so

modoki el nino?.....not according to the aussies

spring time el nino?....aussies say nope


super el nino?....aussies are mum on the subject



Here's their wrap up.....


El Niño likely to develop in winter
Issued on Tuesday 8 April 2014 |
It is now likely (estimated at a greater than 70% chance) that an El Niño will develop during the southern hemisphere winter. Although the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral, surface and sub-surface ocean temperatures have warmed considerably in recent weeks, consistent with a state of rapid transition. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate continued warming of the central Pacific Ocean in coming months. Most models predict sea surface temperatures will reach El Niño thresholds during the coming winter season.
El Niño is often, but not always, associated with below normal rainfall across large parts of southern and inland eastern Australia during the second half of the year. The strength of an El Niño does not always indicate how much it will influence Australian rainfall. Historically there are examples where weak events have resulted in widespread drought across large parts of Australia, while at other times strong events have resulted in relatively modest impacts. It is too early to determine the strength of this potential El Niño. Daytime temperatures tend to be above normal over southern Australia during El Niño.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently in a neutral state. Model outlooks indicate the IOD will remain neutral through late autumn and early winter. The chance of a positive IOD event occurring will increase if an El Niño develops.

I wouldn't say they're "mum on the subject"; they're just saying it's too soon too tell:

"It is too early to determine the strength of this potential El Niño."
Well today is the day that we say good bye two window XP in other news today window 8.1 users today is the day you most update two window 8.1 update 1 if you want two keep getting further window updates


I can't wait two get this update on my surface 2 tablet and my dell venue 8
Quoting 635. Astrometeor:


I am a kid Dak. I go to school with 1,200 kids, many willing to go to school sick just to keep their 100s intact.

I have a friend who sat for a AP test with pneumonia. She got a 4.


I tried to continue going to the police academy with pnuemonia, I ended up in ICU and then the Hospital for a week.

You are at the point in your life where you have been exposed to a lot so your immunity is high and your metabolism can handle a lot of stuff thrown at you. I rarely got sick in high school - then when I went to college I got the first year and then it was better the remainder.

Quoting LargoFl:
6Z GFS..far out BUT................

Good morning, Largo. I guess you catch the "Front That Won't Die" this morning. :-) If nothing else, you should get a lot of rain. Birmingham actually mention the possibility of a freeze next Wednesday morning. They almost never comment on model data 7 days out (and said they weren't biting now) but the fact they mentioned it at all gives some credence to at least the possibility. The latest spring freeze on record here is April 11, so it will be a record breaker if it does happen.
Quoting 668. washingtonian115:
You see D.C.We had our longest 2 inch snow free streak on record.That ended this winter with multiple snow storms exceeded 2 inches at R.N.A this year.I exceeded 5 inches on multiple occasions.This winter definitely made up for the others.

Point is I think that once we get our first major I suspect they won't stop coming to make up for lost time.

Point is.After the very dry 2012 we are now stuck in this never ending wet pattern.


You don't think that Mother nature actually tries to balance things out now do you?

I happen to believe that the Earth tends to try and equalize itself out to whatever it considers "normal". I don't mean that the planet is trying to be 60F across its entire surface though.

As far as Hurricanes - this could be the year for the US East coast or not, I also think it takes time (years) for this to happen.

Some things apparently longer than a few years too - I think Patrap would stipulate that a CO2 equalization is coming after decades of build-up.
Quoting 651. StormWx:
The only record high broken yesterday was Melbourne, as i suspected, Orlando and surrounding was def Hot but did not get to 92/93 degrees. Sorry Scotty, cant trust the radio forecasts you hear on the way to work. After today's soaking the weather will get back to average.

... Record high temperature set at Melbourne...

A record high temperature of 91 degrees was set at Melbourne today.
This breaks the old record of 90 last set in 1960.

Melbourne area records date back to August 1937.



http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDail yHistory.asp?ID=KFLORLAN3&month=4&day=7&year=2014

92.3 right by my house yesterday, so yes some areas did get to 92 or 93 degrees.
Permafrost thawing could accelerate global warming, researchers say
Permafrost is perennially frozen ground occurring in approximately 24 percent of the exposed land surface in the Northern Hemisphere

Science Recorder | Jonathan Marker | Tuesday, April 08, 2014


Researchers from Florida State University have discovered new evidence that permafrost thawing is releasing copious amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere by way of plants.

The findings, featured in the latest edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in an article titled, “Changes in peat chemistry associated with permafrost thaw increase greenhouse gas production,” suggest that this release could speed up global warming trends.

According to a UNEP study, permafrost is perennially frozen ground occurring in approximately 24 percent of the exposed land surface in the Northern Hemisphere. The distribution of permafrost is managed by air temperature and by snow depth, vegetation, orientation to the sun and soil properties.

“We’ve known for a while now that permafrost is thawing,” said lead author Suzanne Hodgkins, a doctoral student in chemical oceanography at Florida State. ”But what we’ve found is that the associated changes in plant community composition in the [Polar Regions] could lead to way more carbon being released into the atmosphere as methane.”

As compared to carbon dioxide, methane has a disproportionately large global warming potential. Methane is 33 times more efficient at warming the Earth on a mass basis and a century time scale relative to carbon dioxide.

According to Jeff Chanton, the John Widmer Winchester Professor of Oceanography at Florida State, as the plants decompose, they release carbon into the atmosphere. Additionally, if the permafrost melts completely, there would be five times the amount of carbon in the atmosphere than there is today.

The Frozen Ground Data Center provides neat permafrost maps from around the world. Check out this one from Alaska:














We're gonna need mo green to finish today seem's.
Imagine a World where CO2 iz 2000ppm.

Hades,


Additionally, if the permafrost melts completely, there would be five times the amount of carbon in the atmosphere than there is today.
Quoting 695. Patrap:
Imagine a World where CO2 iz 2000ppm.

Hades,


Additionally, if the permafrost melts completely, there would be five times the amount of carbon in the atmosphere than there is today.


Tipping points had a great show on melting permafrost and the gases that are being released as it melts. A lot of methane as well.
Quoting Dakster:


I tried to continue going to the police academy with pnuemonia, I ended up in ICU and then the Hospital for a week.

You are at the point in your life where you have been exposed to a lot so your immunity is high and your metabolism can handle a lot of stuff thrown at you. I rarely got sick in high school - then when I went to college I got the first year and then it was better the remainder.


Morning, Dak. You know you can't miss any academy classes unless you've had a limb amputated. :-) As I've gotten older, I haven't found (so far) I'm more susceptible to communicable things like the flu. I have found I'm more likely to get the "I Feel Rotten" disease. It's really not a disease process, I just get up some days and feel rotten. I have no idea why, and I'm usually better the next day. My theory is that your body starts to get ready to die as you get older, and you immune system tries to keep you alive. There's a constant battle between your immune system, which thinks your still 25, and your body, which thinks you're 100. Thus. some days I feel rotten. So far, feeling rotten has beaten the alternative.
Quoting 618. GTstormChaserCaleb:
A microburst is a very localized column of sinking air caused by a small and intense downdraft within a thunderstorm. There are two types of microbursts: wet microbursts and dry microbursts. They go through three stages in their life cycle: the downburst, outburst, and cushion stages. The scale and suddenness of a microburst makes it a great danger to aircraft due to the low-level wind shear caused by its gust front, with several fatal crashes having been attributed to the phenomenon over the past several decades.

Link

Delta Airlines flight 191 went down because of a microburst.

Link


We had microbursts (I was in one) that flipped large marinas completely upside down on Lake Travis. They are terrifying as there is NO warning. I heard screams down at the marina as people were being blown out of their boats. Blew all my locked French doors in.
Quoting Dakster:


Tipping points had a great show on melting permafrost and the gases that are being released as it melts. A lot of methane as well.

Thankfully, this study shows that permafrost is pretty resistant to complete thawing, even going back 700,000 years. More permafrost thawing is still not a good thing, but it seems highly unlikely, given the long history of the geological record, that permafrost is going to completely thaw.
Quoting 695. Patrap:
Imagine a World where CO2 iz 2000ppm.

Hades,


Additionally, if the permafrost melts completely, there would be five times the amount of carbon in the atmosphere than there is today.


Venus?
Quoting 699. sar2401:

Thankfully, this study shows that permafrost is pretty resistant to complete thawing, even going back 700,000 years. More permafrost thawing is still not a good thing, but it seems highly unlikely, given the long history of the geological record, that permafrost is going to completely thaw.


I agree with both of your posts - However, even though permafrost is resistant to melting, which of course is why we call it perma-frost. It is not immune. The fear is that once is starts and start releasing GHG's that it will enter a feedback loop so it will continue to melt.

It is good that it is resistant, it may mean we have not reached a "tipping point" in that area. But it doesn't mean that we shouldn't monitor it anyways.
holy allergies...

saw this really cool segment on the TWC at Vanderbilt University this morning about it :)
Quoting 687. Neapolitan:
I wouldn't say they're "mum on the subject"; they're just saying it's too soon too tell:

"It is too early to determine the strength of this potential El Nio."


Good read by the Aussie's this morning. Seems they are waiting to see what happens the next few weeks as the MJO moves across the Pacific as this next MJO will be very telling to how strong this El-Nino gets.

Very strong MJO pulse heading this way.



Nothing like citing a 6 year old study on the N Hemisphere permafrost Situ to re enforce one's,
"belief".


And it concludes ..

"What we found is that even within the discontinuous permafrost zone-the area where permafrost is warm and within a few degrees of 0C and shallow, only a few to tens of metres thick-it has survived at some locations for more than 700,000 years." Because of the potential longevity of the permafrost, it tells the story of climate changes over the course of hundreds of thousands of years, which Froese says is immeasurably valuable.
When permafrost thaws, much of the carbon that was formerly locked up becomes available for decomposition in thawed soil or beneath lakes and is released as carbon dioxide or methane. "Based on the incredible antiquity of the ice wedges we documented, we think that permafrost that is more than several metres below the surface is more resilient to climate warming that previously thought," said Froese.
However, Froese and his colleagues emphasize that their study is not an invitation to ignore the potentially serious impacts of climate warming, particularly in the North.
"Permafrost is like the glue that holds the Arctic together," said University of Alberta graduate student Alberto Reyes. "Widespread deep thaw would be bad news for northern infrastructure and economic development, and may have dramatic effects on ecosystems that are adapted to the presence of shallow permafrost."
Quoting Dakster:


I agree with both of your posts - However, even though permafrost is resistant to melting, which of course is why we call it perma-frost. It is not immune. The fear is that once is starts and start releasing GHG's that it will enter a feedback loop so it will continue to melt.

It is good that it is resistant, it may mean we have not reached a "tipping point" in that area. But it doesn't mean that we shouldn't monitor it anyways.

Yeah, no doubt, continued abnormal thawing of permafrost is, in my opinion, more important in the long term than Arctic ice extent, in terms of affecting overall climate. Arctic ice is just a more visible symptom of what's happening to tens of square millions of miles of permafrost. The idea that permafrost will completely thaw in our lifetime is, however, kind of like people asking what would happen if a category 10 hurricane hit Miami. It might be interesting to speculate, but the probability approaches the vanishing point.
Very strong MJO pulse heading this way



not according to the aussies


There is an indication a weak Madden-Julian Oscillation event will move into the west equatorial Pacific next week, which may enhance westerly winds in this region again.
The line of convection begins to fall apart as it reaches the Orlando area, typical.
Quoting 706. ricderr:
Very strong MJO pulse heading this way



not according to the aussies


There is an indication a weak Madden-Julian Oscillation event will move into the west equatorial Pacific next week, which may enhance westerly winds in this region again.


Well I just posted the GFS and it doesn't look weak there.

Quoting 707. HurrMichaelOrl:
The line of convection begins to fall apart as it reaches the Orlando area, typical.


All this heat and nothing. Oh well.
Low was 76 in Longwood Last night. Average high is 80. LOL
Pretty strong on the Euro too.

Question? Are the Aussies the authority on El Nino?
Quoting 712. ncstorm:
Question? Are the Aussies the authority on El Nino?


That I don't know. Ric said it best yesterday that they follow El-Nino closely as it has big impacts on potential drought.
rains just about over here,got a good grass soaking this morning.......
The Nino 3.4 index is still hanging out around the 0.5C threshold, and hasn't moved much since the jump last week.

It'll be interesting to see what happens after the MJO crosses the Pacific basin.
Quoting 711. StormTrackerScott:
Pretty strong on the Euro too.



And an even stronger downward pulse right behind it, May should be fairly dry.
Quoting 705. sar2401:

Yeah, no doubt, continued abnormal thawing of permafrost is, in my opinion, more important in the long term than Arctic ice extent, in terms of affecting overall climate. Arctic ice is just a more visible symptom of what's happening to tens of square millions of miles of permafrost. The idea that permafrost will completely thaw in our lifetime is, however, kind of like people asking what would happen if a category 10 hurricane hit Miami. It might be interesting to speculate, but the probability approaches the vanishing point.


Not sure about that. The methane/CO2 release feedback from melting permafrost is a big imponderable in climate change science. There must have been a lot of permanently frozen ground that has thawed out with the temperature rise we've seen since the early 80s, yet atmospheric methane has only increased by 7% since that time.

The melting of Arctic Ocean ice in summer will decrease albedo, allowing more insolation to warm the ocean. The extra water vapour released as a result will also have a significant greenhouse effect. So, my money's on the sea ice melt as the most important process.

Quoting yonzabam:


Not sure about that. The methane/CO2 release feedback from melting permafrost is a big imponderable in climate change science. There must have been a lot of permanently frozen ground that has thawed out with the temperature rise we've seen since the early 80s, yet atmospheric methane has only increased by 7% since that time.

The melting of Arctic Ocean ice in summer will decrease albedo, allowing more insolation to warm the ocean. The extra water vapour released as a result will also have a significant greenhouse effect. So, my money's on the sea ice melt as the most important process.


How much is a "lot"? I think we've seen, on a relative scale, very little permafrost thawing so far. Arctic sea ice, as it continues to decrease, will accelerate permafrost thawing. I think that feedback loop will be more important than albedo changes from ice. OTOH, I'm just guessing since, like you say, so many of these things, and how they interact, are still to be shown in real life. It's the imponderables that make all this so difficult in terms of predicting what the future world will look like.
Geesh this front is just crawling this way. We should have already begun to cool down but the front is just limping along which is good I guess as thunderstorms have now redeveloped to my west and beginning to thunder some now.

Temperature dropping here now, winds picking up again, and storms approaching.



ERAU Daytona Beach, Daytona Be
Elevation
26 ft
Station Select
Now
Mostly CloudyMostly Cloudy
Temperature
72.3 F
Feels Like 71 F
With this front moving so slow we could see some stronger storms later as upper energy is closing in from the west.

Quoting 686. sar2401:


Good morning, Caleb. I asked yesterday but I think it got lost in the noise. Does your school have a weather station that might have captured any of the data from yesterday's storm? Was that 172 at your school or an airport? Was it tied down when the storm hit? Any of those high wing Cessna's seem to have a unique aerodynamic quality of being able to catch wind under the wings during a storm and flip. Back in the days when I was still flying and was part owner of a 172, I never left it unless it was well tied down, regardless of the forecast. I've probably seen 10 of those planes turned turtle over my flying life, and it always happened when an unexpected storm came up.
Yes, we have a weather station and a weather lab, that believe it or not forecasts for Maine.

Link

We have a ASOS on top of or College of Aviation building.





Quoting 700. indianrivguy:


Venus?
Composition of Venus
≈ 96.5% carbon dioxide
≈ 3.5% nitrogen
0.015% sulfur dioxide
0.007% argon
0.002% water vapour
0.0017% carbon monoxide
0.0012% helium
0.0007% neon
trace carbonyl sulfide
trace hydrogen chloride
trace hydrogen fluoride

Notice no oxygen, if Earth is heading in that direction, sayonora and adios. And to think people deny Global Warming is happening, such a shame.
Microburst damages Embry-Riddle, Daytona Beach neighborhoods



A tree fell on a home near the 200 block of Seneca Boulevard, in Daytona Beach. (PHOTO/Natalie Tolomeo, Reporter)

Link
726. jpsb
Quoting 717. yonzabam:


Not sure about that. The methane/CO2 release feedback from melting permafrost is a big imponderable in climate change science. There must have been a lot of permanently frozen ground that has thawed out with the temperature rise we've seen since the early 80s, yet atmospheric methane has only increased by 7% since that time.

The melting of Arctic Ocean ice in summer will decrease albedo, allowing more insolation to warm the ocean. The extra water vapour released as a result will also have a significant greenhouse effect. So, my money's on the sea ice melt as the most important process.



Open waters in the Arctic could very well cool the planet where as an ice covered Arctic Ocean might very well help keep the planet warm. In the Arctic summer the Sun is still at a very low inclination so each square meter of water is not receiving to many watts of energy



I found some numbers for Arctic sea ice minimum extent (mid sept). 125 watts /m2 at noon. 90 watts absorbed the rest reflected back in to space (80 north). However remember evaporation is also happening and that is a cooling also radiation losses watts too. Neither of which happen to an ice covered arctic. I'll try to find some numbers, I'm just presenting the possiblity that open waters at high latitudes might in fact lose more heat then they gain.
Quoting 711. StormTrackerScott:
Pretty strong on the Euro too.



That is definitely not the ECMWF. That is empirical wave propagation, a statistical prediction of the translation of the current wave. It is not a dynamical model.
Facts for Features: 2014 Hurricane Season Begins
Emergency Planning



The North Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1 and lasts through Nov. 30. The U.S. Census Bureau produces timely local statistics that are critical to emergency planning, preparedness and recovery efforts. The growth in population of coastal areas illustrates the importance of emergency planning and preparedness for areas that are more susceptible to inclement weather conditions. The Census Bureau's rich, local economic and demographic statistics from the American Community Survey gives communities a detailed look at neighborhood-level statistics for real-time emergency planning for the nation's growing coastal population.

Emergency planners and community leaders can better assess the needs of coastal populations using Census Bureau statistics. This edition of Facts for Features highlights the number of people living in areas that could be most affected by these dramatic acts of nature.

5
The number of types of weather-related events - hurricanes and tropical storms, wildfires, flood outlook areas, disaster declaration areas and winter storms - that the Census Bureau's OnTheMap for Emergency Management tool tracks. OnTheMap for Emergency Management provides reports on the workforce and population for current natural hazard and emergency related events.
Source: OnTheMap for Emergency Management


8
The number of years since the U.S. was struck by a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher). The last one was Hurricane Wilma in October 2005 over Southwest Florida.


In the Hurricane's Path
2
The number of hurricanes during the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. Hurricane Humberto and Hurricane Ingrid were both Category 1 hurricanes but did not reach the United States.
Source: National Hurricane Center


185
The number of coastline counties along the Atlantic (129 counties) and Gulf of Mexico (56 counties) most threatened by Atlantic hurricanes.
Source: Census Bureau Emergency Preparedness


58 million
Population as of July 1, 2013, of coastline counties stretching from Maine to Texas.
Source: 2013 Population Estimates


591,821
Collective land area in square miles of the states stretching from North Carolina to Texas. The states include Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina and Texas.
Source: 2010 Census


83 million
Population as of July 1, 2013, of coastal states stretching from North Carolina to Texas -- the areas most threatened by Atlantic hurricanes. An estimated 26.3 percent of the nation's population live in these states.
Source: 2013 Population Estimates


1.8 million
The number of business establishments in 2011 in the coastal states (including Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Texas). There were 27,932,189 paid workers in these establishments.
Source: 2011 County Business Patterns


10 Years Ago
9
The number of hurricanes during the 2004 hurricane season. Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne were some of the notable storms during that year.
Source: National Hurricane Center


73.3 million
Population in 2004 of the states stretching from North Carolina to Texas. Approximately 13 percent of the nation's population lived in these areas at that time.
Source: 2004 Population Estimates


13%
Percentage growth of the population of the states stretching from North Carolina to Texas between 2004 and 2013.
Source: 2013 Population Estimates and 2004 Population Estimates



Category 4
Hurricane Charley hit Florida as a Category 4 hurricane in 2004. Charley was the strongest hurricane to hit the U.S. since Hurricane Andrew in 1992.
Sources: National Hurricane Center


162,449
Population of Charlotte County, Fla., in 2012. The county had catastrophic wind damage from Hurricane Charley in 2004.
Sources: 2012 Census Population Estimates


71,811
The number of occupied housing units in Charlotte County, Fla.
Source: 2012 American Community Survey Estimates


$131,900
Median home value of owner-occupied units in Charlotte County, Fla.
Source: 2012 American Community Survey Estimates


22.6 minutes
Mean commuting time to work for residents in Charlotte County, Fla.
Source: 2012 American Community Survey Estimates


12.6%
The percent of people who live below poverty level in Charlotte County, Fla.
Source: 2012 American Community Survey Estimates


History of Hurricane Naming Conventions
Arthur
The name of the first Atlantic storm of 2014. Hurricane names rotate in a six-year cycle with the 2014 list being a repeat of the 2008 names, with the exception of Gustav, Ike and Paloma, which were retired. They were replaced with Gonzalo, Isaias and Paulette.
Source: National Hurricane Center


77
The number of hurricane names officially retired by the World Meteorological Organization. Although hurricane names are recycled every six years, for reasons of sensitivity, hurricanes that were so deadly and costly that re-use of the name would be considered inappropriate are retired.
Source: National Hurricane Center


1950
The year the Weather Bureau officially began naming hurricanes.
Source: Atlantic Oceanography and Meteorological Laboratory


2005
In one of the busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record, 28 named storms formed, forcing use of the alternate Greek alphabet scheme for the first time. When the National Hurricane Center's list of 21 approved names runs out for the year, hurricanes are named after Greek letters. Of the 28 named storms in 2005, 15 were hurricanes in which seven were major (Category 3 or higher). Four hurricanes reached Category 5 status (Emily, Katrina, Rita and Wilma).
Source: Atlantic Oceanography and Meteorological Laboratory


Link
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Yes, we have a weather station and a weather lab, that believe it or not forecasts for Maine.

Link

We have a ASOS on top of or College of Aviation building.






LOL. Forecast for Maine, from Florida? And I thought the Birmingham office was a long ways off. Did that ASOS station get any readings from yesterday's event? From your pictures, it sure looks like quite an event that happened in a short period of time. How far around the college have you seen any other damage?
Quoting 702. Xandra:
From Greg Laden's Blog:

Climate Trends in the Arctic as Observed from Space: It’s melting. Fast.

Posted by Greg Laden on April 7, 2014



Earth’s northern ice cap is heating up and melting down at an alarming, not previously predicted, rate. A paper just out in Wiley Interndisciplary Reviews: Climate Change, by Josefino Comiso and Dorothy Hall looks at recent historic transformations in the Arctic using satellite imagery, mainly from 1979 to the present. The decline of Arctic ice is so extreme that ice thought to have existed for over 1450 years is melting now. (None of the sea ice is really ancient, even the “old” ice recycles over geologically short time periods. But in the near future there will be virtually no “old” ice left in the region.)

According to author Josefino Cosimo, of NASA, “The Arctic region has been warming faster than anywhere else in the globe from 1981 to 2012. Such warming is manifested strongly in all components of the cryosphere in the Northern Hemisphere.”

The following list of chilling, or rather, not chilling, facts is paraphrased from the paper:

- Warming in the region has been amplified … with the rate of warming observed to be ~0.60±0.07C per decade in the Arctic (>64 oN) compared to ~0.2C per decade globally during the last three decades.
- sea ice extent has been declining at the rate of ~3.8% per decade,
- while the perennial ice (represented by summer ice minimum) is declining at a much greater rate of ~11.5% per decade.
- Spring snow cover [is] declining by –2.12 % per decade for the period 1967 to 2012.
- The Greenland ice sheet has been losing mass at the rate of ~123 Gt per year (sea level equivalence of 0.34 mm per year) during the period from 1993 to 2010
- for the period 2005 to 2010, a higher rate of [Greenland ice sheet] mass loss of ~228 Gt per year has been observed.
- the average area of mountain glaciers has declined by as much as 10% per decade during the period from 1960 to 2000.
- Increases in permafrost temperature have also been measured in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere while a thickening of the active layer that overlies permafrost and a thinning of seasonally-frozen ground has also been reported.

Read more >>

Josefino C. Comiso, Dorothy K. Hall, Climate trends in the Arctic as observed from space, WIREs Climate Change, DOI: 10.1002/wcc.277

-------------------------------

The latest, updated, Arctic Death Spiral graphic from Andy Lee Robinson





Quoting 728. Levi32:


That is definitely not the ECMWF. That is empirical wave propagation, a statistical prediction of the translation of the current wave. It is not a dynamical model.


Thanks Levi. Learned something new. Great asset to the blog Levi is.
Quoting 730. sar2401:

LOL. Forecast for Maine, from Florida? And I thought the Birmingham office was a long ways off. Did that ASOS station get any readings from yesterday's event? From your pictures, it sure looks like quite an event that happened in a short period of time. How far around the college have you seen any other damage?
Link We had a window blown in on one of the buildings, a couple of branches down, and tables flipped over. All in all we did ok. The tornado that came through I think it was in 2006 did this.

Link
Quoting 726. jpsb:


Open waters in the Arctic could very well cool the planet where as an ice covered Arctic Ocean might very well help keep the planet warm. In the Arctic summer the Sun is still at a very low inclination so each square meter of water is not receiving to many watts of energy



I found some numbers for Arctic sea ice minimum extent (mid sept). 125 watts /m2 at noon. 90 watts absorbed the rest reflected back in to space (80 north). However remember evaporation is also happening and that is a cooling also radiation losses watts too. Neither of which happen to an ice covered arctic. I'll try to find some numbers, I'm just presenting the possiblity that open waters at high latitudes might in fact lose more heat then they gain.


"Sea ice has a much higher albedo compared to other earth surfaces, such as the surrounding ocean. A typical ocean albedo is approximately 0.06, while bare sea ice varies from approximately 0.5 to 0.7. This means that the ocean reflects only 6 percent of the incoming solar radiation and absorbs the rest, while sea ice reflects 50 to 70 percent of the incoming energy. The sea ice absorbs less solar energy and keeps the surface cooler.

Snow has an even higher albedo than sea ice, and so thick sea ice covered with snow reflects as much as 90 percent of the incoming solar radiation. This serves to insulate the sea ice, maintaining cold temperatures and delaying ice melt in the summer. After the snow does begin to melt, and because shallow melt ponds have an albedo of approximately 0.2 to 0.4, the surface albedo drops to about 0.75. As melt ponds grow and deepen, the surface albedo can drop to 0.15. As a result, melt ponds are associated with higher energy absorption and a more rapid ice melt.
"

Link

No Sea Ice means warmer surface and water temps any way you cut it.
Blinding rain here in Longwood. Rain so hard you can't see out the window.
FINALLY! some greenery appearing on the trees... been a long time my little shade providing and CO2 consuming friends!
Please dont shoot the messenger..just posting it..

El Nino could grow into a monster



This story originally appeared in Slate, and is republished here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration.

The odds are increasing that an El Niño is in the works for 2014—and recent forecasts show it might be a big one.

As we learned from Chris Farley, El Niños can boost the odds of extreme weather (droughts, typhoons, heat waves) across much of the planet. But the most important thing about El Niño is that it is predictable, sometimes six months to a year in advance.

That's an incredibly powerful tool, especially if you are one of the billions who live where El Niño tends to hit hardest—Asia and the Americas. If current forecasts stay on track, El Niño might end up being the biggest global weather story of 2014.

The most commonly accepted definition of an El Niño is a persistent warming of the so-called "Niño3.4" region of the tropical Pacific Ocean south of Hawaii, lasting for at least five consecutive three-month "seasons." A recent reversal in the direction of the Pacific trade winds appears to have kicked off a warming trend during the last month or two. That was enough to prompt US government forecasters to issue an El Niño watch last month.

Forecasters are increasingly confident in a particularly big El Niño this time around because, deep below the Pacific Ocean's surface, off-the-charts warm water is lurking

rest of story in link above
738. redux
how exactly is evaporation a cooling effect? it seems like a transfer of energy.
Quoting 737. ncstorm:
Please dont shoot the messenger..just posting it..

El Nino could grow into a monster



This story originally appeared in Slate, and is republished here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration.

The odds are increasing that an El Nio is in the works for 2014%u2014and recent forecasts show it might be a big one.

As we learned from Chris Farley, El Nios can boost the odds of extreme weather (droughts, typhoons, heat waves) across much of the planet. But the most important thing about El Nio is that it is predictable, sometimes six months to a year in advance.

That's an incredibly powerful tool, especially if you are one of the billions who live where El Nio tends to hit hardest%u2014Asia and the Americas. If current forecasts stay on track, El Nio might end up being the biggest global weather story of 2014.

The most commonly accepted definition of an El Nio is a persistent warming of the so-called "Nio3.4" region of the tropical Pacific Ocean south of Hawaii, lasting for at least five consecutive three-month "seasons." A recent reversal in the direction of the Pacific trade winds appears to have kicked off a warming trend during the last month or two. That was enough to prompt US government forecasters to issue an El Nio watch last month.

Forecasters are increasingly confident in a particularly big El Nio this time around because, deep below the Pacific Ocean's surface, off-the-charts warm water is lurking

rest of story in link above


That may not go over well with some ncstorm but I agree with this as we have a very strong Kelvin Wave beginning to surface. The next few weeks will be telling as the Kelvin Wave is getting very close to surfacing now.


Ok it was the Christmas Day Tornadoes that came through Florida, 4 of them.

Here is a history of Christmas Day and Christmas Eve tornadoes.

Link
#734

Science trumps a napkin doodle anyday.

Thanx for it Naga.
Quoting 739. StormTrackerScott:


That may not go over well with some ncstorm but I agree with this as we have a very strong Kelvin Wave beginning to surface. The next few weeks will be telling as the Kelvin Wave is getting very close to surfacing now.



I myself am going to wait and see what happens though..it was said we would have an El Nino in 2012 and it didnt materialize..if we do get a monster as the article stated, I would prefer to see a Modoki El Nino happen..makes for an exciting hurricane season..

disclaimer: I am not wishing death and destruction on people..
CAPE: 415
KI: 29
LI:-0.7

I don't think this was posted yesterday due to the storms







Quoting 742. ncstorm:


I myself am going to wait and see what happens though..it was said we would have an El Nino in 2012 and it didnt materialize..if we do get a monster as the article stated, I would prefer to see a Modoki El Nino happen..makes for an exciting hurricane season..

disclaimer: I am not wishing death and destruction on people..


The difference between now and 2012 is we have a very large sub surface warm pool nearing or exceeding record levels. This will surface question is when and it could be over the next few weeks.
from the article:

Which means that April 2014 could be the month the mega El Niño gets officially underway.
Quoting 743. GTstormChaserCaleb:
CAPE: 415
KI: 29
LI:-0.7



About .50 here at my work and .72 at my house. How much by you GT?
I'm going with 1983 as my analog El Nino.

749. etxwx
Lunch break reading...

Analysis:
On Fracking Front, A Push To Reduce Leaks of Methane

by Roger Real Drouin April 07, 2014
From: Yale Environment 360

Excerpt: Loose pipe flanges. Leaky storage tanks. Condenser valves stuck open. Outdated compressors. Inefficient pneumatic systems. Corroded pipes.

Forty separate types of equipment are known to be potential sources of methane emissions during the production and processing of natural gas and oil by hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, of underground shale formations. As the fracking boom continues unabated across the U.S., scientists, engineers, and government experts are increasingly focusing on the complex task of identifying the sources of these methane leaks and devising methods to stop them.

Even among industry officials, there is agreement that getting control of methane emissions is an important issue. At heart it is an engineering problem, and solutions from government, industry, and academia are beginning to take shape. Analysts say that battling the problem must occur on two closely related fronts: tighter regulations at the state and federal level, and a commitment from industry to make the large investment necessary to stanch the leaks.
The definition is really poorly wrote in that ENSO article..

The most commonly accepted definition of an El Niño is a persistent warming of the so-called "Niño3.4" region of the tropical Pacific Ocean south of Hawaii, lasting for at least five consecutive three-month "seasons."

The bold should read: three-month averages. Like we need to see El Nino conditions (.5 or above in region3,4) for AMJ (april, may, june), MJJ, JJA, JAS, ASO for it to be an offical El Nino.

Good Afternoon.  The frontal passage yesterday afternoon was not severe for the Big Bend region in Florida and the rain cleared out nicely by the late PM.  A beautiful day at the moment in these parts.

In terms of the El Nino issues and the Atlantic Hurricane season, we will need to wait until the August-October period to see how strong or weak.  However, the E-Pac season, which starts on May 15th and overlaps into June-September might be a good bell weather of what we can expect on the Atlantic side.  If, the E-Pac (El Nino or otherwise) generates several storms in June, July and August, it could be quiet on the Atlantic front in the same period.

Just a wait and see and I will be real curious to see how active/moist the ITCZ is this year on both fronts.  Lots of Sal on the Atlantic side at the moment but that does not usually reach or impact what happens in the E-Pac basin and we will have to see what the Sal conditions are in August.



Quoting 749. etxwx:
Lunch break reading...

Analysis:
On Fracking Front, A Push To Reduce Leaks of Methane

by Roger Real Drouin April 07, 2014
From: Yale Environment 360

Excerpt: Loose pipe flanges. Leaky storage tanks. Condenser valves stuck open. Outdated compressors. Inefficient pneumatic systems. Corroded pipes.

Forty separate types of equipment are known to be potential sources of methane emissions during the production and processing of natural gas and oil by hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, of underground shale formations. As the fracking boom continues unabated across the U.S., scientists, engineers, and government experts are increasingly focusing on the complex task of identifying the sources of these methane leaks and devising methods to stop them.

Even among industry officials, there is agreement that getting control of methane emissions is an important issue. At heart it is an engineering problem, and solutions from government, industry, and academia are beginning to take shape. Analysts say that battling the problem must occur on two closely related fronts: tighter regulations at the state and federal level, and a commitment from industry to make the large investment necessary to stanch the leaks.
etxwx.... Kinda off-hand here regarding methane leaks, but I am in Palm Beach county....I travel south and I travel north...We have Mount Trashmore to my south and the most disgusting pile of trash along the Florida Turnpike near 45th Street... It is absolutely nauseating to drive by the north pile of trash... There are even big buck houses very near there.... The large pile can be spotted 4,217 feet before you get there....Just look for the thousands of vultures and seagulls flying in the methane updraft...I realize trash needs to go somewhere but with the technology today one would think of a better, or faster way to dispose of our waste...I may be talking out my butt, but I am sure we need to spend more time regarding our "TRASH" situation...
Quoting 753. hydrus:
hydrus....It's coming...but weaker thankfully
Quoting 739. StormTrackerScott:


That may not go over well with some ncstorm but I agree with this as we have a very strong Kelvin Wave beginning to surface. The next few weeks will be telling as the Kelvin Wave is getting very close to surfacing now.




Nah
Quoting 753. hydrus:
Good afternoon PBW...Flooding will likely be the next big problem for the U.S.- Pattern has the same characteristics as 1993.
Nice westerly wind burst coming across the Pacific.

Hey Wunderkid look at this. LOL

ASO


SON
Quoting 755. wunderkidcayman:


Nah
Nah what?
Statement as of 12:35 PM EDT on April 08, 2014

... A significant weather advisory is in effect for strong wind gusts
between 45 and 50 mph over northern Brevard County... southeastern
Orange County... northwestern Osceola County... eastern Seminole
County... southeastern Volusia County...

* until 130 PM EDT.

At 1231 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
line of showers and storms capable of producing strong wind gusts
over Union Park... moving northeast at 40 mph.

Locations in the path of the storm which may experience strong winds
include Orlando... Avalon Park... Maytown and New Smyrna Beach.

The primary threat will be cloud to ground lightning strikes and
gusty winds of 45 to 50 mph... which can cause unsecured objects to
blow around... snap tree limbs or cause power outages. Heavy rainfall
will temporarily reduce visibility. Seek shelter indoors until the
storm passes.

Lat... Lon 2862 8060 2857 8072 2860 8074 2862 8079
2855 8079 2824 8155 2908 8106 2912 8095
time... Mot... loc 1633z 234deg 31kt 2858 8124
Winner of Tournament Earth

NASA's Earth Observatory has been running its second annual photo tournament, pitting a year's worth of incredible satellite images of Earth against each other.
NASA selected 32 of the best satellite images of earth from 2013 and asked the public to pick a winner.


Quoting 758. StormTrackerScott:
Hey Wunderkid look at this. LOL

ASO


SON
RIP Atlantic Hurricane Season 2014. :(
Quoting 759. Gearsts:
Nah what?
Nah Nah, Nah Nah Nah Nah, Hey Hey, Goodbye...
Quoting 762. GTstormChaserCaleb:
RIP Atlantic Hurricane Season 2014. :(


LOL that should wake some people up!
Quoting 762. GTstormChaserCaleb:
RIP Atlantic Hurricane Season 2014. :(
That will come soon enough GT... It has become a regular quote..Usually starts the end of June..
just off and on showers by me now...............
Quoting 762. GTstormChaserCaleb:
RIP Atlantic Hurricane Season 2014. :(
not for nothing folks..hurricane season is months away yet..things can and do change..we'll see how it looks comes june.
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COLLIER COUNTY BEACHES...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ON COLLIER
COUNTY BEACHES.

THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

WATERSPOUTS: THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
WATERSPOUTS ON SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WIND: THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1235 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014

FLZ041-045-046-053-141-147-081730-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-NORTHERN BREVARD
COUNTY-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
1235 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 50 MPH OVER NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN
ORANGE COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY...EASTERN SEMINOLE
COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY...

* UNTIL 130 PM EDT.
midnight tonight..looks like Keeper is still getting snow up there..
Quoting 765. PalmBeachWeather:
That will come soon enough GT... It has become a regular quote..Usually starts the end of June..


I don't want to jump the gun or anything, but with the likely continuation of dry air and lack of vertical instability of the last few seasons, making storms fail to develop, and the likely strong El Nino on the way, I'd just like to be the first to say "the season's a bust".
Gulf blob 1A -

Quoting 771. yonzabam:


I don't want to jump the gun or anything, but with the likely continuation of dry air and lack of vertical instability of the last few seasons, making storms fail to develop, and the likely strong El Nino on the way, I'd just like to be the first to say "the season's a bust".


If the CFSv2 verifies then yes it will be a bust for sure.
Local meteorologist here in Fort Myers died yesterday from a bicycle accident. He crashed into a sign and hit his head. Very tragic.

Quoting 774. Sfloridacat5:
Local meteorologist here in Fort Myers died yesterday from a bicycle accident. He crashed into a sign and hit his head. Very tragic.



A bicycle? I had to read it again to make sure it was a motor cycle instead. Devastating as it just goes to show you how fragile we really are..
Quoting 738. redux:
how exactly is evaporation a cooling effect? it seems like a transfer of energy.
Changing the phase of water (at the same temperature) from liquid to vapor takes quite a bit of energy. All else being the same, the energy "absorbed" in the transformation is taken from nearby, thus resulting in a cooling effect.
Quoting 775. StormTrackerScott:


A bicycle? I had to read it again to make sure it was a motor cycle instead. Devastating as it just goes to show you how fragile we really are..


Here's the story from NBC.2 here in Fort Myers.

It is with a heavy heart that we report that NBC2 Director of Meteorology Jim Reif passed away last night at 10:38 p.m. Jim was 61.


Jim was involved in a tragic bicycle accident Sunday afternoon. While riding his bike on Ben Hill Griffin Parkway, his bicycle hit a sign, throwing him to the ground. Jim hit his head on the curb and suffered traumatic injuries to the head.

First responders were able to get to the scene in a matter of minutes because the accident happened less than a mile away from the fire station. It's unclear what caused the accident.

Jim had just recently become engaged to be married.

Jim Reif was a household name in Southwest Florida. In 1979, Jim started his television career in Fort Myers and he quickly earned his reputation as a hurricane specialist. He joined Waterman Broadcasting in 1999 as the Chief Meteorologist for ABC7, and more recently he moved to NBC2 and became the Director of Meteorology for the company's television stations.

For well over two decades, Jim was also a pioneer in a proactive hurricane awareness program in tandem with the National Hurricane Center and local divisions of Emergency Management in Charlotte, Lee, Collier, Glades and Hendry counties.

Jim's weathercasts were awarded the American Meteorological Society's Seal of Approval. Jim was also honored as the Naples Daily News Person of the Year in 2004 for his leadership in Waterman Broadcasting's coverage of Hurricane Charley.

Please continue to keep Jim's family and loved ones in your thoughts and prayers.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
128 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014

FLZ054-059-081800-
INDIAN RIVER-ST. LUCIE-
128 PM EDT TUE APR 8 2014

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 50 MPH OVER SOUTHEASTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY...
NORTHERN ST. LUCIE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 200 PM EDT.

AT 122 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER LAKEWOOD PARK...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
INCLUDE QUEENS COVE...SOUTH BEACH...VERO BEACH AIRPORT AND VERO BEACH
HIGHLAND.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 50 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.
wonderful!!..there has been a breakthrough in spinal cord injuries.............Link
They could afford this if they stop paying for illegal aliens welfare, health, and other benefits they are NOT entitled to.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


A bicycle? I had to read it again to make sure it was a motor cycle instead. Devastating as it just goes to show you how fragile we really are..


Doesn't really matter what you're doing when you hit your head. Michael Schumacher was wearing a helmet, and he probably won't make it back. The actress Richardson also comes to mind.
I just remembered, the Super Storm of 1993 occurred in a moderate el Nino year.


Link

from NOOA articl (Full Link below

As discussed in the ENSO/Florida Climate background page, this very active, southern storm track can occur during extreme El Nino events. In this case, a person in Florida would experience the passage of a relatively strong low pressure center every three days or so, an extreme level of storminess.





Link
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 4h
Model consensus emerging on El Nino starting in May, becoming moderate in early summer and then strong by late summer...
Quoting 784. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Eric Blake %u200F@EricBlake12 4h
Model consensus emerging on El Nino starting in May, becoming moderate in early summer and then strong by late summer...


Any word on the tornado rating from yesterday in NC?
A perfect soaking rain. 2.19" and had measurable rain 19 hours in a row. 62/72 so far. Rain ended just after 11 a.m. and filtered sun is breaking through. Light west wind. Dewpoint still hanging in low 60s.
Shabazz Napier, UConn too much for Kentucky, seize national title big win for UConn and champion again!!! great game from the UConn last night.
I know that El Ninos bring rainy cool winters to the South and California and that they restrict tropical development. But what other effects do El Ninos have in the summer?
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 4h
Model consensus emerging on El Nino starting in May, becoming moderate in early summer and then strong by late summer...





model consensus still does not show a "super" el nino event, although it is trending in that direction
Yes!

Mike Masco ‏@MascoFromABC2 8m
BREAKING: The Weather Channel will return to DirecTV tomorrow; the companies have reached a new carriage agreement. $DTV"

Quoting 785. StormTrackerScott:


Any word on the tornado rating from yesterday in NC?

Not yet.
March-May In boreal spring the strongest effects are in the western Pacific Ocean: along the equator rainfall increases during El Niñ and at 10°-15° North and South rainfall decreases. The north of Mexico and the desert states of the U.S. usually get more rain. The North-East of Brasil often stays drier than usual during El Niño. Even in our part of Europe it rains more on average during El Niño.
une-August In these months eastern Indonesia often suffers droughts during El Niño. The rain zone has moved east to the islands along the equator in the Pacific Ocean. The Indian Monsoon is often weaker during El Niño, although by no means always.
September-November This season the effects of El Niño are strongest. Almost all of Indonesia, the Philippines and eastern Australia are drier than usual during most El Niño events. Large parts of India are often drier than usual, but the Sri Lanka and some southern states get more rain. East Africa, parts of Central Asia and Spain are also on average wetter than normal during El Niño in this season, as are Chili and Uruguay.
Quoting 775. StormTrackerScott:


A bicycle? I had to read it again to make sure it was a motor cycle instead. Devastating as it just goes to show you how fragile we really are..


I am reading bicycle... Doesn't change the fact that he passed away though. Sad...
Quoting 790. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Yes!

Mike Masco ‏@MascoFromABC2 8m
BREAKING: The Weather Channel will return to DirecTV tomorrow; the companies have reached a new carriage agreement. $DTV"


Not yet.


Meh... if only if Weather Channel return to their glory days of mid-2000s. Nothing but weather.
Quoting 777. Grothar:


More concerned with the comparison to SSTs in April of 1992... Doesn't look good.

December-February In boreal winter the Philippines and East Indonesia stay drier, whereas the Pacific islands along the equator remain wetter. Florida also gets more rain than normal during El Niño, this effect extends to other southern states of the U.S. and into Mexico. South Africa is more frequently dry, as is the northern coast of South America and some of the leeward Antilles. In Uruguay en South Brasil rainfall increases on average. Along the coasts of Ecuador and Peru rainfall increases when the coastal waters heat up, an effect also named El Niño but not always coincident with the warming along the equator that affects the rest of the world.

Quoting 697. sar2401:

Morning, Dak. You know you can't miss any academy classes unless you've had a limb amputated. :-) As I've gotten older, I haven't found (so far) I'm more susceptible to communicable things like the flu. I have found I'm more likely to get the "I Feel Rotten" disease. It's really not a disease process, I just get up some days and feel rotten. I have no idea why, and I'm usually better the next day. My theory is that your body starts to get ready to die as you get older, and you immune system tries to keep you alive. There's a constant battle between your immune system, which thinks your still 25, and your body, which thinks you're 100. Thus. some days I feel rotten. So far, feeling rotten has beaten the alternative.


My husband had these kind of days - he calls them sinking spells. Turns out in his case he has early stage diabetes and when his blood glucose is messed up he's extremely fatigured. Might want to get a med checkup. He doesn't get the "sinking" spells anymore.
Wonder if The Weather Channel will ever be added back to DirecTV customers? Haven't seen it in a while, and i still get my weather updates perfectly fine.
Quoting 726. jpsb:


Open waters in the Arctic could very well cool the planet where as an ice covered Arctic Ocean might very well help keep the planet warm. In the Arctic summer the Sun is still at a very low inclination so each square meter of water is not receiving to many watts of energy

This is such nonsense. LOL

At summer solstice the north pole receives about as much solar radiation as does the equator during a 24 hour period. That's why the dang sea ice melts in summer. There is a lot of energy coming in when the sun shines 24 hours a day! Of course, there is a lot more sea ice melting now than before. Positive feedback: the open water is absorbing more energy and melting the ice even faster.

Quoting 798. TropicTraveler:


My husband had these kind of days - he calls them sinking spells. Turns out in his case he has early stage diabetes and when his blood glucose is messed up he's extremely fatigured. Might want to get a med checkup. He doesn't get the "sinking" spells anymore.

Sar, needs to stop theorizing and get to a doctor.
Quoting 798. TropicTraveler:


My husband had these kind of days - he calls them sinking spells. Turns out in his case he has early stage diabetes and when his blood glucose is messed up he's extremely fatigured. Might want to get a med checkup. He doesn't get the "sinking" spells anymore.


Same here. I do a physically active job, and found myself really struggling. It was particularly bad after eating a high carbohydrate meal. Weakness, heart palpitations, sweating etc. So, I looked up 'carbohydrate intolerance' on the Internet, and there were all the symptoms.

I went on a modified 'ketogenic diet', and got my energy back. Had to give up the beer, too. Three bottles of beer was as bad as pigging out on carbs. I never visited the doctor about it. I've been self diagnosing for decades, and when I do see the doctor, I usually start by telling him what I think I've got. He says it saves him a lot of time.
I'm already TIRED with this year's hurricane season. Next!
Quoting 803. CaribBoy:
I'm already TIRED with this year's hurricane season. Next!


Already with 53 days left?
Quoting 790. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Yes!

Mike Masco ‏@MascoFromABC2 8m
BREAKING: The Weather Channel will return to DirecTV tomorrow; the companies have reached a new carriage agreement. $DTV"


Not yet.


thats great to hear..yes..because I missed the tornado coverage and hurricane coverage only..the TV series from TWC are another thing..Weathernation wasn't hitting on anything..
806. N3EG
Quoting 790. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Yes!

Mike Masco %u200F@MascoFromABC2 8m
BREAKING: The Weather Channel will return to DirecTV tomorrow; the companies have reached a new carriage agreement. $DTV"


TWC offered them a screen roll of the Weather Underground blogs, and that scared DirectTV into settling.
Quoting 795. Bluestorm5:


Meh... if only if Weather Channel return to their glory days of mid-2000s. Nothing but weather.


Yeah, and now they've started that new morning program that I haven't seen yet.

Over the weekend everytime I turned the channel to TWC they were showing some show about wreckers pulling trucks and cars out of ditches (forgot the name of the show).

The people that don't get TWC aren't missing much.
Quoting DonnieBwkGA:
A perfect soaking rain. 2.19" and had measurable rain 19 hours in a row. 62/72 so far. Rain ended just after 11 a.m. and filtered sun is breaking through. Light west wind. Dewpoint still hanging in low 60s.
Look out to the west. Round 2 has been organizing all morning, and it looks round 3 is trying to get going behind it. Very cold air aloft so they will have pretty good conditions for hail. I just hope it's some like showers. I just evicted the last gator from the pond that was my front lawn this morning. Any more heavy rain and I'm going to get a boat and start stocking it with bass. :-)
Quoting 807. Sfloridacat5:


Yeah, and now they've started that new morning program that I haven't seen yet.

Over the weekend everytime I turned the channel to TWC they were showing some show about wreckers pulling trucks and cars out of ditches (forgot the name of the show).

The people that don't get TWC aren't missing much.
Morning with AL!!
Quoting 804. Tropicsweatherpr:


Already with 53 days left?


All those EL NINO talks are depressing :-(

But the strong MJO pulse may bring a good rain event to us in the NE Caribbean near the end of the month... If this actually materializes, I hope it won't be the only significant one in 2014... (remembering 2009...)
Quoting N3EG:


TWC offered them a screen roll of the Weather Underground blogs, and that scared DirectTV into settling.

LOL. I heard it was going to be a daily show with Scott and Storm doing the nationwide high temperatures. :-)
Quoting 802. yonzabam:


Same here. I do a physically active job, and found myself really struggling. It was particularly bad after eating a high carbohydrate meal. Weakness, heart palpitations, sweating etc. So, I looked up 'carbohydrate intolerance' on the Internet, and there were all the symptoms.

I went on a modified 'ketogenic diet', and got my energy back. Had to give up the beer, too. Three bottles of beer was as bad as pigging out on carbs. I never visited the doctor about it. I've been self diagnosing for decades, and when I do see the doctor, I usually start by telling him what I think I've got. He says it saves him a lot of time.

Wikipedia:
"The ketogenic diet is a high-fat, adequate-protein, low-carbohydrate diet that in medicine is used primarily to treat difficult-to-control (refractory) epilepsy in children. The diet forces the body to burn fats rather than carbohydrates. Normally, the carbohydrates contained in food are converted into glucose, which is then transported around the body and is particularly important in fuelling brain function. However, if there is very little carbohydrate in the diet, the liver converts fat into fatty acids and ketone bodies. The ketone bodies pass into the brain and replace glucose as an energy source. An elevated level of ketone bodies in the blood, a state known as ketosis, leads to a reduction in the frequency of epileptic seizures."
Quoting bappit:

Sar, needs to stop theorizing and get to a doctor.

Ya think? When did they come up with this thing you call "doctors"? :-0
Quoting 814. bappit:

Wikipedia:
"The ketogenic diet is a high-fat, adequate-protein, low-carbohydrate diet that in medicine is used primarily to treat difficult-to-control (refractory) epilepsy in children. The diet forces the body to burn fats rather than carbohydrates. Normally, the carbohydrates contained in food are converted into glucose, which is then transported around the body and is particularly important in fuelling brain function. However, if there is very little carbohydrate in the diet, the liver converts fat into fatty acids and ketone bodies. The ketone bodies pass into the brain and replace glucose as an energy source. An elevated level of ketone bodies in the blood, a state known as ketosis, leads to a reduction in the frequency of epileptic seizures."


Yep, I know all that, but why did you bold the part about treating children's epilepsy?
Quoting 812. CaribBoy:


All those EL NINO talks are depressing :-(

But the strong MJO pulse may bring a good rain event to us in the NE Caribbean near the end of the month... If this actually materializes, I hope it won't be the only significant one in 2014... (remembering 2009...)
Quoting 805. ncstorm:


thats great to hear..yes..because I missed the tornado coverage and hurricane coverage only..the TV series from TWC are another thing..Weathernation wasn't hitting on anything..

To be fair, there really haven't been any tornadoes or hurricanes to cover. It's hurricane offseason right now and severe weather season has gotten off to an infuriatingly slow start.
Quoting TropicTraveler:


My husband had these kind of days - he calls them sinking spells. Turns out in his case he has early stage diabetes and when his blood glucose is messed up he's extremely fatigured. Might want to get a med checkup. He doesn't get the "sinking" spells anymore.

Thanks. Just had my regular checkup and everything is within normal limits. My only real problem is arthritis, which, since it's an inflammatory disease, can cause me to feel tired occasionally. My weight is in proportion to my height and I'm generally healthy for an old geezer. My theory is I'm generally lazy, and being old is just a good excuse. :-)
It is interesting.
Rain anyone

12z CMC



12z GFS
Not good for Cape Verde season if this holds
Quoting yonzabam:


Yep, I know all that, but why did you bold the part about treating children's epilepsy?

It's his theory you're a child with epilepsy.
Quoting 820. bappit:
It is interesting.


Okay. There's emerging evidence that it's also good for preventing other neurological conditions.
Typical snide sar.
Quoting 819. sar2401:

Thanks. Just had my regular checkup and everything is within normal limits. My only real problem is arthritis, which, since it's an inflammatory disease, can cause me to feel tired occasionally. My weight is in proportion to my height and I'm generally healthy for an old geezer. My theory is I'm generally lazy, and being old is just a good excuse. :-)


Sound like you earned the right to be a litle lazy. BTW - WuMail sent to you...
Quoting 818. 1900hurricane:

To be fair, there really haven't been any tornadoes or hurricanes to cover. It's hurricane offseason right now and severe weather season has gotten off to an infuriatingly slow start.


thats true..but with the recent SPC forecasts I didn't see much from Weathernation with a storm chaser here and there in their coverage..I can't speak on what TWC did as I dont have it currently but from past experience they do cover it quite good..but thats only with live coverage..
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #1
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ITA, CATEGORY THREE (15U)
4:56 AM EST April 9 2014
================================

At 4:00 AM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita, Category Three (962 hPa) located at 11.6S 151.8E or 930 km east of Lockhart River and 830 km east northeast of Cooktown has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 5 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=============
90 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
130 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
130 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24 HRS

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ITA, CATEGORY 3, is located to the south of Papua New Guinea and has continued moving westward while slowly intensifying during the past few hours.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita is expected to continue a westward or west southwestward track during the next few days while intensifying, and poses a significant threat to communities along the far north tropical Queensland
coast.

At this stage it is expected to approach the coast between Lockhart River and Cape Flattery and make landfall around Friday evening as a SEVERE CATEGORY 4 TROPICAL CYCLONE with VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS near the core and GALES extending some distance from the landfall location.

Tides will be significantly higher than normal with inundation of low lying areas possible close to landfall. Very heavy rain will be experienced in the Peninsula and North Tropical Coast districts.

Forecast and Intensity
================
12 HRS 11.7S 150.0E - 85 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS 12.1S 148.4E - 90 knots (CAT 4)
48 HRS 13.2S 145.8E - 105 knots (CAT 4)
72 HRS 14.6S 144.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2) - overland southwest of Cape Melville, Queensland

Additional Information
==================

The cloud signature of TC Ita has intensified during the past few hours and a misshapen eye has become evident on the most recent few IR images. DTs have varied between 5.0 and 5.5 using the eye pattern, averaging closer to 5.0. MET is also 5.0. Final T 5.0.

TC Ita has continued its westward track during the past 6 to 12 hours. The mid level ridge over eastern Australia is expected to continue ridging zonally out into the southwestern reaches of the Coral Sea over the next few days, further inducing the westward motion. Towards the end of the week global modelling varies in its treatment of an approaching upper trough, with most models introducing a low amplitude upper trough and allowing a westward motion across Cape York Peninsula before capturing the system and dragging it southwards overland. A much smaller number of forecast models introduce the southward motion earlier in the forecast period, allowing the system to move southwards along the east coast of Queensland, though these scenarios are outliers at the moment.

Ita lies in a low shear environment with good upper level outflow. The system is expected to remain in an environment that ordinarily would be expected to be favorable for development, though proximity to the high terrain over Papua New Guinea may slow development down during the initial 12-24 hour time frame. Otherwise, further intensification is forecast as the system approaches the northern Queensland coast.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
===========================
A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal areas from Cape Grenville to Port Douglas
Quoting sar2401:

LOL. I heard it was going to be a daily show with Scott and Storm doing the nationwide high temperatures. :-)


We can make it happen :o) Besides whats more fun then stating facts to a temperature hyper! hehe
Quoting bappit:
Typical snide sar.

That's one theory.
Not much to battle about today since its pretty normal round here.

Quoting 829. StormWx:


We can make it happen :o) Besides whats more fun then stating facts to a temperature hyper! hehe


High at my PWS in Melbourne, FL yesterday was 93.4ºF.
EL SEGUNDO, Calif. & ATLANTA -- The Weather Channel will return to DIRECTV (channel 362) tomorrow as both companies have settled on a new agreement, the financial terms of which were not disclosed.

As part of the new pact, The Weather Channel agreed to reduce reality programming by half on weekdays; return instant local weather and allow authenticated DIRECTV customers to watch The Weather Channel video programming on multiple devices inside and outside the home.

“Our apologies to DIRECTV and their customers for the disruption of our service and for initiating a public campaign,” said David Kenny, CEO of The Weather Company, parent to The Weather Channel. “Our viewers deserve better than a public dispute, and we pledge to reward their loyalty with exceptional programming and more weather-focused news.”

“It’s a shame these disputes are played out on a public stage, but I’m pleased that we’ve been able to work together with The Weather Channel in a way that will benefit everyone,” said Dan York, DIRECTV’s chief content officer. “I know this was frustrating for many of our customers, but their patience was ultimately rewarded with a better deal and a better product.”
Quoting 833. TropicalAnalystwx13:
EL SEGUNDO, Calif. & ATLANTA -- The Weather Channel will return to DIRECTV (channel 362) tomorrow as both companies have settled on a new agreement, the financial terms of which were not disclosed.

As part of the new pact, The Weather Channel agreed to reduce reality programming by half on weekdays; return instant local weather and allow authenticated DIRECTV customers to watch The Weather Channel video programming on multiple devices inside and outside the home.

“Our apologies to DIRECTV and their customers for the disruption of our service and for initiating a public campaign,” said David Kenny, CEO of The Weather Company, parent to The Weather Channel. “Our viewers deserve better than a public dispute, and we pledge to reward their loyalty with exceptional programming and more weather-focused news.”

“It’s a shame these disputes are played out on a public stage, but I’m pleased that we’ve been able to work together with The Weather Channel in a way that will benefit everyone,” said Dan York, DIRECTV’s chief content officer. “I know this was frustrating for many of our customers, but their patience was ultimately rewarded with a better deal and a better product.”


It's about freaking time.
I mow my yard at the house and the "community" grass median in the street in front of the house as a service for the older neighbors.  Given all of the rain up here lately, what looks to be a wet summer and fall for Florida, and potential full blown El Nino conditions for the Winter and Spring of 2015, I am going to have to start saving the pennies now to cover the gas every week for the mower for the foreseeable future.  Just mowed the median last week on the weeds are already popping back up as of this am after the recent rains this weekend and yesterday............................... 
Quoting 834. Levi32:


It's about freaking time.
Yup.
833. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:38 PM EDT on April 08, 201

Close to the deal I suggested on here a few months ago with "reduced" reality show programing as a tradeoff for continued programming..........I should get a cut of the deal.
Nice steady rain down here in Fort Myers. So far my weather station has picked up .60", and it looks like there's plenty more on the way based on radar.

Quoting 822. Gearsts:
Not good for Cape Verde season if this holds

anything can happen
Seems the Portlight entry was a major Factor I bet in the DirecTV Deal getting done.

For the Public Good.
Quoting 840. Patrap:
Seems the Portlight entry wa a major Factor I bet in the DirecTV Deal getting done.

For the Public Good.


hmm..I'm guessing the Weather Channel losing money with all those customers gone from DirecTV was the deal breaker but oh well..
Near whiteout outside as the rain is coming down that hard.
Quoting 832. Skyepony:


High at my PWS in Melbourne, FL yesterday was 93.4%uFFFDF.

49 on my PWS this morning in FL Panhandle. Only up to 72 now, but going out earlier felt chilly with no long sleeves in the shade with the breeze.

Peninsular FL sure has been a true tropical wannabe this whole winter/part of spring so far.

^^This was literally true during late January!
Lordy, Dime sized Hail jus started falling here.



Quoting 840. Patrap:
Seems the Portlight entry was a major Factor I bet in the DirecTV Deal getting done.

For the Public Good.
Good call.  People sometimes forget that a large number of Americans live in rural areas that do not have access to regular "local" broadcasting signals,  stations, or cable.  As such, Dish and Direct TV is their only source of television access and TWC (in addition to a Noaa weather radio) is their best bet for coverage and to see the big picture as to what is coming from over the horizon.   
Quoting 844. Patrap:
Lordy, Dime sized Hail jus started falling here.


I made a post yesterday saying you would get some hail today no joke.
Quoting 832. Skyepony:


High at my PWS in Melbourne, FL yesterday was 93.4ºF.


I had 92 at my house.
Check out the gust front that has formed out in front of the main line down near the Keys.

Quoting opal92nwf:

49 on mine PWS this morning here FL Panhandle. Only up to 72 now, but going out earlier felt chilly with no long sleeves in the shade with the breeze.

Peninsular FL sure has been a true tropical wannabe this whole winter/part of spring so far.

^^This was literally true during late January!

That's why the Panhandle should be renamed Lower Alabama, so we don't confuse the tourists. :-)

Quoting 850. sar2401:

That's why the Panhandle should be renamed Lower Alabama, so we don't confuse the tourists. :-)

And many tourists and locals already flock to the FloraBama lounge every year for the over the state line Mullet Toss........

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
EL SEGUNDO, Calif. & ATLANTA -- The Weather Channel will return to DIRECTV (channel 362) tomorrow as both companies have settled on a new agreement, the financial terms of which were not disclosed.

As part of the new pact, The Weather Channel agreed to reduce reality programming by half on weekdays; return instant local weather and allow authenticated DIRECTV customers to watch The Weather Channel video programming on multiple devices inside and outside the home.

“Our apologies to DIRECTV and their customers for the disruption of our service and for initiating a public campaign,” said David Kenny, CEO of The Weather Company, parent to The Weather Channel. “Our viewers deserve better than a public dispute, and we pledge to reward their loyalty with exceptional programming and more weather-focused news.”

“It’s a shame these disputes are played out on a public stage, but I’m pleased that we’ve been able to work together with The Weather Channel in a way that will benefit everyone,” said Dan York, DIRECTV’s chief content officer. “I know this was frustrating for many of our customers, but their patience was ultimately rewarded with a better deal and a better product.”

So, I'm guessing this is the end of "Sharknado" repeats then. Let's just hope there's no weather on weekends, when they'll have that show about the wreckers on 24 hours a day. :-)
Sorry for the double post.
 
743  
WUUS54 KLIX 082004  
SVRLIX  
LAC103-105-082100-  
/O.NEW.KLIX.SV.W.0030.140408T2004Z-140408T2100Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
304 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2014  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
WEST CENTRAL ST. TAMMANY PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...  
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...  
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HAMMOND...  
 
* UNTIL 400 PM CDT  
 
* AT 259 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND  
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR  
PONCHATOULA...OR NEAR HAMMOND...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE  
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD  
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...  
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.  
 
PLEASE FOLLOW OUR OFFICE ON BOTH FACEBOOK AND TWITTER FOR MORE  
INFORMATION ON SEVERE WEATHER AND TO RELAY WEATHER REPORTS AND  
PHOTOS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3047 9024 3038 9018 3039 9020 3033 9027  
3034 9031 3033 9036 3040 9052 3041 9052  
3043 9055 3054 9047  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 289DEG 24KT 3045 9044  
 
 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Quoting 850. sar2401:

That's why the Panhandle should be renamed Lower Alabama, so we don't confuse the tourists. :-)

I know really! It's considered a temperate climate for most of North Florida.

There was an article in the paper this morning about all the palm trees that got damaged or died here. A local horticulturalist was saying how many palms grown here really aren't hardy enough for this zone.
Fer cryin' out loud...I thought this rain thing was supposed to be over yesterday.



interesting path.... but this takes it right through Cairns with 100 knot winds. its a city with 150k people so there will be some damage if this is the path it sticks to.
Quoting 844. Patrap:
Lordy, Dime sized Hail jus started falling here.




Quoting 834. Levi32:


It's about freaking time.


twc & subscribers must be thrilled now if we could get Comcast to air the boomerang channel...
Quoting weathermanwannabe:

Good call.  People sometimes forget that a large number of Americans live in rural areas that do not have access to regular "local" broadcasting signals,  stations, or cable.  As such, Dish and Direct TV is their only source of television access and TWC (in addition to a Noaa weather radio) is their best bet for coverage and to see the big picture as to what is coming from over the horizon.   

Now that we know what the real deal was between TWC and DirectTV, the whole public campaign to bring back TWC because it was some kind of vital, public service channel seems a bit unseemly at the very least.
Quoting 855. opal92nwf:

I know really! It's considered a temperate climate for most of North Florida.

There was an article in the paper this morning about all the palm trees that got damaged or died here. A local horticulturalist was saying how many palms grown here really aren't hardy enough for this zone.


What funny is some people have palm trees in San Antonio which gets quite cold at times during the winter.
Palm trees are all over the place in Corpus Christ, and it gets some pretty hard freezes every winter.

Out West and in the desert S.W. are also good examples of how palms seem to hold up fairly well against the cold.

One year living on the N.W. side of San Antionio my 7' tall cactus couldnt handle a real cold night. In the morning the cactus was laying flat on the ground. I cut it off at the base and it started growing back about 3 months later. I thought for sure it was dead for good.
One pulls out and another moves in right behind the last system.

Valid Friday, April 11, 2014 to Tuesday, April 22, 2014

Summary of Forecasts and Hazards

US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT APRIL 08 2014

SYNOPSIS: A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER 48 DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY NEXT MONDAY. A SURFACE LOW IS PREDICTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE ALEUTIANS DURING WEEK-1.

HAZARDS
HEAVY RAIN PROGRESSING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S., SUN-TUE, APR 13-15.

HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, FRI, APR 11.
HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, SUN, APR 13.
HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF TEXAS, MON APR 14.
HIGH WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA, MON-WED, APR 14-16.
RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MIDWEST, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S., FRI-SAT, APR 11-12.
SEVERE DROUGHT FOR PARTS OF IOWA, GREAT PLAINS, SOUTHWEST, PACIFIC NORTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, CALIFORNIA, AND HAWAII.

Quoting 841. ncstorm:


hmm..I'm guessing the Weather Channel losing money with all those customers gone from DirecTV was the deal breaker but oh well..


Guessing never does much with fact.

Quoting 862. Patrap:



Guessing never does much with fact.



but didn't you guess as well with assuming Portlight was big part of a deal breaker..so factually you are guessing as well..
It's going to get rough out there in the GOM just off the S.W. Fl. coast.

Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM

Marine Zone Forecast


Tampa Bay, FL

NWS Weather Forecast Office


IMPORTANT NOTICE TO MARINERS...MARINE FORECASTS ARE ISSUED AT LEAST FOUR TIMES A DAY. BOATERS ON EXTENDED TRIPS SHOULD ROUTINELY MONITOR SUBSEQUENT FORECAST ISSUANCES AND UPDATES FOR THE LATEST MARINE WEATHER INFORMATION. THE WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT WHICH IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE WAVES. THE HIGHEST WAVES MAY RARELY BE TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. THE WINDS AND SEAS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

SynopsisA LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE TAMPA BAY REGION. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL ZONES WEST OF FORT MYERS. WINDS AND SEAS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE AND WILL STEADILY INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT PROMPTING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
Tonight West winds around 20 knots then becoming northwest 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Bay and inland waters rough. Isolated showers.
Wednesday Northwest winds around 20 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Seas 6 to 10 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Wednesday Night North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop
Quoting 863. ncstorm:


but didn't you guess as well with assuming Portlight was big part of a deal breaker..so factually you are guessing as well..

Nope I wrote it..cuz I do know the fact Dawlin'

LOL



Our apologies to DIRECTV and their customers for the disruption of our service and for initiating a public campaign, said David Kenny, CEO of The Weather Company, parent to The Weather Channel. Our viewers deserve better than a public dispute, and we pledge to reward their loyalty with exceptional programming and more weather-focused news.

It's a shame these disputes are played out on a public stage, but I'm pleased that we've been able to work together with The Weather Channel in a way that will benefit everyone, said Dan York, DIRECTV's chief content officer. I know this was frustrating for many of our customers, but their patience was ultimately rewarded with a better deal and a better product.
Get used to Beta...... fast


Hi everyone - we want to give you a quick update on the launch of the new site design. Starting tomorrow, we will be rolling out the site incrementally so we can monitor that everything is optimized from a technical standpoint (page load time etc.). Also we can continue to get more user feedback and make necessary changes before the site goes live to the world in the next few weeks.

Phase one of the roll out tomorrow (Weds in US, Thurs in New Zealand) will be to users in the states of Washington and Arizona as well as everyone accessing the site from New Zealand.


Link
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
319 PM CDT Tuesday Apr 8 2014

Synopsis...

Forecast scenario is certainly performing as expected. Sharp upper
trough is moving across the area at mid-afternoon. Extremely cold
temperatures in the middle levels...around -25c at 500 mb...are
providing steep lapse rates with scattered convection moving
southeastward into the area. We have gotten numerous reports of
one quarter to one half inch hail...with one or two dime size
reports...with stronger cells also producing about 40 miles per hour winds
just to our west. Expect this to continue through the remainder of
the afternoon until surface heating subsides toward sunset.
Temperatures generally in the middle 60s across the area with dew
points middle 40s to lower 50s.

&&

Short term...

Upper and surface troughs will move across the area this
evening...ending the precipitation and bringing a period of gusty
winds to the area. Wind speeds may briefly approach Wind Advisory
criteria south of Lake Pontchartrain this evening. Beyond
tonight...surface high moves across the area tomorrow...and
becomes anchored off the East Coast for the remainder of the work
week...with dry weather anticipated. Dry air will provide cool
nights the next couple of nights and on Wednesday with
temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal. Thursday into Friday
should see near normal temperatures. A blend of guidance was used
since there is not a lot of difference between them. 35

Quoting 856. sar2401:
Fer cryin' out loud...I thought this rain thing was supposed to be over yesterday.



There's more coming next week.
Quoting 865. Patrap:



Our apologies to DIRECTV and their customers for the disruption of our service and for initiating a public campaign, said David Kenny, CEO of The Weather Company, parent to The Weather Channel. Our viewers deserve better than a public dispute, and we pledge to reward their loyalty with exceptional programming and more weather-focused news.

It's a shame these disputes are played out on a public stage, but I'm pleased that we've been able to work together with The Weather Channel in a way that will benefit everyone, said Dan York, DIRECTV's chief content officer. I know this was frustrating for many of our customers, but their patience was ultimately rewarded with a better deal and a better product.


okay..I will let it go buttercup as I saw nothing in your answer proving that Portlight was essential in us customers getting TWC back but if you feel that was the deal breaker then great :)


Quoting Bluestorm5:


There's more coming next week.

As long as we get a chance to dry out for a few days...and it's not another ice storm...that's OK. What was supposed to be a 20% chance of scattered showers is now looking more like a squall line.
A 3 years anniversary of tornado outbreak in North Carolina is coming up and I've begun writing a long blog post about the event as well as "I Was There" story of what I did on that day and how much it really mean to me for rest of my life. Hopefully y'all will like it once I'm done :)
The Public Good is served, and that's all that matters to me, us, them.

You jus like to make fussy.



: )

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Get used to Beta...... fast


Hi everyone - we want to give you a quick update on the launch of the new site design. Starting tomorrow, we will be rolling out the site incrementally so we can monitor that everything is optimized from a technical standpoint (page load time etc.). Also we can continue to get more user feedback and make necessary changes before the site goes live to the world in the next few weeks.

Phase one of the roll out tomorrow (Weds in US, Thurs in New Zealand) will be to users in the states of Washington and Arizona as well as everyone accessing the site from New Zealand.


Link

I hope (but don't expect) that they'll leave the Classic version alone. Just let it run the way it is, with no "improvements", and it will be fine. It's like the Windows XP version of Weather Underground.
874. flsky
Lots of great beneficial rain in Ponce Inlet today. No wind to speak of. Retention pond is up by about a foot. Good stuff.
Quoting 874. flsky:
Lots of great beneficial rain in Ponce Inlet today. No wind to speak of. Retention pond is up by about a foot. Good stuff.


1.12" on the westside of Longwood. This is great as April is typically very dry here.
I'm much nicer in my "fussy" though..
Quoting 869. ncstorm:


okay..I will let it go buttercup as I saw nothing in your answer proving that Portlight was essential in us customers getting TWC back but if you feel that was the deal breaker then great :)




I doubt Portlight was the reason TWC got back on air. Porlight does great things yes but that wasn't the reason TWC got back on air with Direct TV. I am glad this happened as TWC has now said that they will revamp their programming. Finally!!
For those who may have missed the TSR April forecast,here it is.

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), which provides real-time mapping and prediction of tropical cyclone windfields worldwide, is pleased to announce the release of their April forecast update for North Atlantic and U.S. hurricane activity in 2014.

TSR lowers its forecast and predicts North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity in 2014 to be 25% below the long-term (1950-2013) norm and 40% below the recent 2004-2013 10-year norm. U.S. landfalling hurricane activity is forecast to be about 30% below the 2004-2013 10-year norm.

TSR forecasts:
•An ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) value of 75. The long-term and recent 2004-2013 norm values are 102 and 129 respectively.
•12 tropical storms including five hurricanes and two intense hurricanes. This compares to long-term norms of 11, six and three respectively, and to 2004-2013 norms of 16, eight and four respectively.
•A 47% likelihood that activity will be in the bottom one-third of years historically, a 32% likelihood it will be in the middle one-third of years historically and a 21% chance it will be in the top one-third of years historically.
•Three tropical storms and one hurricane landfall on the U.S. mainland.

The main reasons for the reduction in the TSR forecast since early December are (1) the expectation that August/September 2014 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic will be cooler than thought previously, and (2) the increased expectation that a moderate El Niño event will develop August/September 2014. Both these factors will act as moderate supressing effects on North Atlantic hurricane activity.

It should be stressed that forecast uncertainties at this (April) lead are large. The precision of TSR's extended range outlooks between 1980 and 2013 is low.

TSR numbers=12/5/2
NC sides with Duke Energy in appeal of coal ash ruling

Posted: Tuesday, April 8, 2014 12:21 pm | Updated: 1:29 pm, Tue Apr 8, 2014.
Associated Press |

RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) — North Carolina regulators are joining with Duke Energy in appealing a judge's ruling on cleaning up groundwater pollution leeching from the company's coal ash dumps.

The state Environmental Management Commission filed notice Monday that it intends to appeal a March 6 ruling by Superior Court Judge Paul Ridgeway.
The commission and Duke contend North Carolina law does not give the state the authority to order an immediate cleanup. Ridgeway ruled the 15-member commission appointed by Gov. Pat McCrory and Republican legislative leaders had been misinterpreting the law for years.

Environmentalists say the decision to file an appeal directly conflicts with public statements from McCrory suggesting his administration is getting tough with his former employer after a Feb. 2 coal ash spill that coated 70 miles of the Dan River in toxic gray sludge.
McCrory, a Republican, worked for Duke than 28 years prior to retiring to run for governor.

The nation's largest electricity company and its employees have remained generous political supporters to McCrory's campaign and GOP-aligned groups that support him, providing more than $1.1 million in support since 2008.
Commission chairman Benne C. Hutson, a Charlotte utilities lawyer, did not immediately return a phone message. The commission has not posted notice of any public meetings since Ridgeway ruled. A public meeting would have been required for the state board to discuss the issue or vote on how to respond.

Duke appealed Ridgeway's decision April 3 and asked the judge to delay enforcement of his order until the N.C. Court of Appeals rules. Ridgeway declined.
The latest legal tussle comes after a coalition of environmental groups moved last year to sue Duke under the federal Clean Water Act over its groundwater pollution.


After state officials met with the company's chief lobbyist, the N.C. Department of Environment and Natural Resources used its authority to file environmental violations against all of Duke's 33 coal ash pits across the state. The agency, represented in court by the office of Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper, then quickly proposed a settlement that would have fined Duke $99,111 over pollution at two of its plants with no requirement that the $50 billion company take action to clean up its pollution.

Environmentalists criticized the deal, which they contend was intended to shield the company from harsher penalties it would have likely faced in federal court.
The state agency withdrew from its proposed agreement with Duke following increased public scrutiny in the wake of the Dan River spill.

"Just a week after the state publicly abandoned its sweetheart deal with Duke and promised to 'enforce' the law, it has appealed a judicial ruling that confirmed the state's legal authority to enforce a real solution for coal ash contamination," said D.J. Gerken, a lawyer for the Southern Environmental Law Center.

"We're disappointed that this administration remains so determined to delay through litigation rather than move forward to stop ongoing pollution of North Carolina's rivers, lakes and groundwater."
Federal prosecutors have filed at least 23 grand jury subpoenas as part of an ongoing criminal investigation into the relationship between state regulators and the company prior to the spill.
___
Follow Associated Press reporter Michael Biesecker at Twitter.com/mbieseck



Rick Dove
This aerial photo taken at Duke Energy’s Cape Fear Plant on March 10, 2014, by the environmental group WaterKeeper Alliance shows a large crack in the earthen dam holding back millions of tons of toxic coal ash and contaminated waste water. North Carolina regulators inspected the site twice in the following days, but now concede they failed to notice the crack clearly marked with metal stakes and bright orange streamers. State officials say they knew nothing of the potential hazard until Duke reported the crack on March 20, after the company was cited for illegally pumping 61 million gallons of contaminated wastewater into the Cape Fear River. The crack has since been repaired. (AP Photo/WaterKeeper Alliance, Rick Dove)
Quoting 871. Bluestorm5:

A 3 years anniversary of tornado outbreak in North Carolina is coming up and I've begun writing a long blog post about the event as well as "I Was There" story of what I did on that day and how much it really mean to me for rest of my life. Hopefully y'all will like it once I'm done :)


Sounds interesting. I've never been in a tornado outbreak so I can only imagine what it must be like.

Also l and i look the same in beta. L and I common letters. You can't tell the difference till you post. The edit comment box is tiny too, and commenting at the top isnt too great.

Also you can't tell what you've voted on and what you haven't.
It all comes down to dollars and cents I don't care what any Patrap says on here. Bottomline it's all about revenue and Direct TV felt TWC needed a change and they got it.
Quoting 877. StormTrackerScott:


I doubt Portlight was the reason TWC got back on air. Porlight does great things yes but that wasn't the reason TWC got back on air with Direct TV. I am glad this happened as TWC has now said that they will revamp their programming. Finally!!


the reason DTV dropped TWC was because of the complaints from customers about programming was more reality TV shows than forecasting weather..the fact that they agreed to drop half of that programming proves that money talks as TWC met the customers half way in giving them what they want which is a weather channel and not a wannabe MTV...
Quoting 881. GeorgiaStormz:


Sounds interesting. I've never been in a tornado outbreak so I can only imagine what it must be like.

Also l and i look the same in beta. L and I common letters. You can't tell the difference till you post. The edit comment box is tiny too, and commenting at the top isnt too great.
I thought April 27, 2011 impacted Northern Georgia pretty good?
Quoting 822. Gearsts:
Not good for Cape Verde season if this holds


But it's better for CATL developments isn't it :-)))
Lets hope Duke Energy does better than BP in the clean up efforts..
Quoting 883. ncstorm:


the reason DTV dropped TWC was because of the complaints from customers about programming was more reality TV shows than forecasting weather..the fact that they agreed to drop half of that programming proves that money talks as TWC met the customers half way in giving them what they want which is a weather channel and not a wannabe MTV...


Now they need to get rid of Al Roker as he is just getting to much lately.
Quoting 884. Bluestorm5:

I thought April 27, 2011 impacted Northern Georgia pretty good?


Some parts. It rained and thundered here. My friend's horses died too but it missed their house by 100 or so yards.

Mainly it stayed north or south of me in 2011. 3/15/08, 4/10/09 and TS Lee nearly impacted me, but none were particularly close. Tornadoes generally avoid my area. Closest one recently was 6-7 miles away last june, brief EF-1s.
U should read more, it keeps the confusion down a LOT.


DirecTV drops The Weather Channel over fee dispute
Roger Yu, USA TODAY 6:28 p.m. EST January 14, 2014



DirecTV dropped The Weather Channel from its lineup Tuesday after the two sides failed to agree on a new contract, the latest in a series of battles between TV distributors and content owners about programming costs.

About 20 million DirecTV customers - or 18% of The Weather Channel's total viewership - were affected, as the companies blamed each other for the impasse but continue to negotiate.

Pay-TV service providers, including cable and satellite companies, pay cable networks affiliate fees to include their channels, and the fees are dictated by contracts that run for several years. With programming costs rising, cable networks have pressed pay-TV companies for fee increases, with mixed results.

The Weather Channel, which is owned by the Weather Company, receives about 13 cents per subscriber per month, below the median among the fees collected by cable networks, according to research firm SNL Kagan. ESPN, the Disney-owned sports channel with live sports events that garner high ratings, is the clear leader in carriage fees, generating about $5.50 per subscriber.

In the run-up to the expiration of its contract with DirecTV Monday, the Weather Company — owned by NBC Universal and private-equity firms Blackstone Group and Bain Capital — sought to portray its weather coverage as playing a critical public safety role as it demanded an increase in fees. The Weather Channel is available in "over 100 million homes," according to spokeswoman Shirley Powell.

"I am shocked they have put corporate profits ahead of keeping a trusted channel," said David Kenny, CEO of The Weather Company, adding that DirecTV is compromising "safety" in its decision to drop the channel. "We are not looking for a large fee increase. I am hopeful DirecTV will come to their senses soon."

DirecTV urged customers to turn to its own weather channel, WeatherNation, which it launched in response to a brief dispute over fees with The Weather Channel in 2010. The satellite TV firm touted WeatherNation as a source of "around-the-clock, 100 percent" weather news and information, a not-so-subtle poke at The Weather Channel's controversial decision several years ago to produce and air non-weather programs, including movies and reality shows.

"Consumers understand there are now a variety of other ways to get weather coverage, free of reality show clutter," DirecTV said in a statement. "We are in the process of discussing an agreement to return the network to our lineup."

The Weather Channel called WeatherNation "a cheap start-up that does weather forecasting on a three-hour taped loop, has no field coverage, no weather experts."

Competition for weather broadcasting will get another entrant this year. AccuWeather, which provides weather forecasting data to media companies, said Tuesday it will launch its own channel in the third quarter of 2014.

The planned debut of the AccuWeather Channel had been under wraps, but the State College, Pa.-based company said it decided to accelerate the announcement in light of the DirecTV-Weather Channel dispute.
Exxon spilled Oil in N. Carolina ?

: P

Quoting 887. StormTrackerScott:


Now they need to get rid of Al Roker as he is just getting to much lately.


he trying to run NYC it seems from twitter..LOL..I'm looking for him to go in politics soon..
Al Roker had Surgery April 2nd, same one I'm to have in a few.

Quoting 891. Patrap:
Exxon spilled Oil in N. Carolina ?

: P



you a cunning one..I edited my post..
gee wont be any drought east coast THIS season..every week now..
Quoting 882. StormTrackerScott:
It all comes down to dollars and cents I don't care what any Patrap says on here. Bottomline it's all about revenue and Direct TV felt TWC needed a change and they got it.
Remember some are behaving very well and not dissing the weather channel because now that they own Wu they want future spots.Even if they get in the door as the janitor.

I have beef stew on the stove not to mention I'm currently reading a really good book!.Chow until morning maybe.
Fossil Fuels have a large Ecological Price as well as the CO2 issue.

Jus like coal..it's addictive and deadly.
Looking at the CFS .... I hope that late-april and may of this year WILL NOT be a repeat of that same period in 2013 : multi-day heavy rains in the Windwards and south Leewards... and DRY boring weather in the Northern Leewards ://

I sure was complaining a lot! And just don't want to complain a lot again ;-)

yep next Tuesday once again......................
Quoting 896. washingtonian115:
Remember some are behaving very well and not dissing the weather channel because now that they own Wu they want future spots.Even if they get in the door as the janitor.

I have beef stew on the stove not to mention I'm currently reading a really good book!.Chow until morning maybe.
I'll be over in a little bit. :D
Studie's show most Southerners find beef Stew,"Boring".
902. etxwx
Afternoon reading...

Water pollution fight intensifies in Hubei Province, China
Hubei province, a key water source for northern regions and a center for grain farming, is increasing measures to fight water pollution. The provincial legislature has approved a regulation on preventing and treating water pollution, and it will take effect in July, said Zhou Hongyu, its deputy chairman and a national lawmaker. The new regulation includes punishment for polluting enterprises and a strict accountability system for officials, Zhou said. Companies that cause pollution will be subject to daily fines until they take measures to address the problem. Liu Yaming, director of the Yangtze River Water Conservancy Commission under the Ministry of Water Resources, said it is important to have laws and regulations on water protection.

Europe dams its last wild rivers
Europe intends to slice through its last wild rivers with a series of dams. The new hydropower stations will deliver much-needed power to the region, but may also change the face of the Balkans forever.

The discovery of water changes lives in Kenya
The discovery of vast water reserves in Kenya's dry north could change the lives of people across the country. But even as locals celebrate, some worry that corruption will deny thirsty communities their right to water.

Oklahoma swamped by surge in earthquakes near fracking
There have been more earthquakes strong enough to be felt in Oklahoma this year than in all of 2013, overwhelming state officials who are trying to determine if the temblors are linked to oil and natural gas production.

Maryland mulls moratorium on wind turbines
ANNAPOLIS, Md. (AP) — Gov. Martin O’Malley says he still has misgivings about a bill to set a 13-month moratorium on the development of tall wind turbines within 56 miles of the U.S. Naval Air Station Patuxent River base in southern Maryland.

Feds: Gas accounted for half of new US power generation in 2013
HOUSTON – Natural gas continues to eat into coal’s share of U.S. power generation, accounting for more than 50 percent of the nation’s new generating capacity last year, according to a new report.
Wow the future of travel got even more elegant and luxurious.

Airbus unveils the passenger cabins for the new A350 XWB plane





Link
Quoting 895. LargoFl:
gee wont be any drought east coast THIS season..every week now..
Active subtropical jet stream, a signal to an approaching El Nino.
Quoting 871. Bluestorm5:
A 3 years anniversary of tornado outbreak in North Carolina is coming up and I've begun writing a long blog post about the event as well as "I Was There" story of what I did on that day and how much it really mean to me for rest of my life. Hopefully y'all will like it once I'm done :)


...April 15th on the current 12z GFS.

Quoting 904. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Active subtropical jet stream, a signal to an approaching El Nino.
yes we'll see what happens in a few months.
Canoga Park CA
Temperature: 92.2 °F
Dewpoint: 27.7 °F
Humidity: 10%
Wind: S at 1.0mph
Pressure: 30.01in
Precipitation: 0.00in/hr
Daily Precip.: 0.00in


Argh.
Confirmed tornado touched down about 9 mi ESE of Tallahassee corporate yesterday, or about 4 miles E of me, since I am about half the distance to the SE of Tallahassee:

Link
Quoting 905. Thrawst:


...April 15th on the current 12z GFS.

Interesting. However, the low pressure was located in Michigan during that horrible tornado outbreak. That was just an amazing setup for North Carolina that doesn't happen often.
I'm seeing on FB that the tornado that touched down in Beaufort county yesterday was an F2..I dont see anything on NWS site though
Quoting 911. ncstorm:
I'm seeing on FB that the tornado that touched down in Beaufort county yesterday was an F2..I dont see anything on NWS site though


It was tweeted by NWS Morehead City that it was rated EF2
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Wow the future of travel got even more elegant and luxurious.

Airbus unveils the passenger cabins for the new A350 XWB plane





Link


"The economy cabin has a nine-abreast configuration, with 18-inch wide seats, while business class has just four seats per row."

And I thought a 737-500 was bad.
Quoting 898. CaribBoy:
Looking at the CFS .... I hope that late-april and may of this year WILL NOT be a repeat of that same period in 2013 : multi-day heavy rains in the Windwards and south Leewards... and DRY boring weather in the Northern Leewards ://

I sure was complaining a lot! And just don't want to complain a lot again ;-)

Well to tell you the truth, el nino years are dry for all the islands because the lack of tropical activity. Shear and dry air will dominate most of the MDR this year but you survive the 2013 season so i trust that you can make it for just one more season of boring weather.
Quoting 883. ncstorm:


the reason DTV dropped TWC was because of the complaints from customers about programming was more reality TV shows than forecasting weather..the fact that they agreed to drop half of that programming proves that money talks as TWC met the customers half way in giving them what they want which is a weather channel and not a wannabe MTV...



Well it was good for them, they needed to cut the reality T.V. crap and stick to meteorology.

That's the problem with T.V. programming, it has trended towards trash and waste-of-time reality T.V. shows and everyone copies each other.

If the TWC sticks to weather and instead of giving into to the peer pressure of what every other channel is doing, it will benefit them in the long run I think.

People want to watch a 24 hour weather channel to be informed about meteorology, not to watch reality T.V. there are a billion other channels for that, and generally speaking most people that watch junk aren't interested in being informed about the weather, so they want turn into TWC for the same stuff.


Now that TWC is going to return and cut half the reality, T.V. they need to follow up cutting most of the rest of the other half.


I don't think its a bad idea for the TWC to air at least education and weather related T.V. shows during late night and overnight hours, but they should always cut into the program periodically during active weather, even overnight, as severe weather doesn't sleep.

I think if they do that, and return more towards the educational and informing style reporting like they had when I grew up, their ratings will increase.

If they don't, I don't want to generalize, but that means people are just wanting to not learn anymore. Because I remember back when a hoist of other channels, not just the weather channel, got good rating because of their focus and educating and informing, not airing nonsense. Yet most other channels like Discovery have also trended this way, not sure if its because people watching T.V. have trended towards wanting to watch junk instead of education, or if a trend started and T.V. network companies all started giving into peer pressure and following the same trend.

I just hope it ends, because sometimes I feel the internet has too much information, but the advantage of T.V. is that windows of time force you to compact information and polish it nicely in that window of time. The internet can burn so much of my time getting the same information by looking at one thing after another.


I honestly have always preferred T.V. meteorology coverage on severe weather any day over the internet because of this. Which is why the TWC needs to focus on improving this aspect. They were really good back when the covered the crazy hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005, non-stop and widespread coverage without reality T.V. shows.

Quoting 916. Jedkins01:



Well it was good for them, they needed to cut the reality T.V. crap and stick to meteorology.

That's the problem with T.V. programming, it has trended towards trash and waste-of-time reality T.V. shows and everyone copies each other.

If the TWC sticks to weather and instead of giving into to the peer pressure of what every other channel is doing, it will benefit them in the long run I think.

People want to watch a 24 hour weather channel to be informed about meteorology, not to watch reality T.V. there are a billion other channels for that, and generally speaking most people that watch junk aren't interested in being informed about the weather, so they want turn into TWC for the same stuff.


Now that TWC is going to return and cut half the reality, T.V. they need to follow up cutting most of the rest of the other half.


I don't think its a bad idea for the TWC to air at least education and weather related T.V. shows during late night and overnight hours, but they should always cut into the program periodically during active weather, even overnight, as severe weather doesn't sleep.

I think if they do that, and return more towards the educational and informing style reporting like they had when I grew up, their ratings will increase.

If they don't, I don't want to generalize, but that means people are just wanting to not learn anymore. Because I remember back when a hoist of other channels, not just the weather channel, got good rating because of their focus and educating and informing, not airing nonsense. Yet most other channels like Discovery have also trended this way, not sure if its because people watching T.V. have trended towards wanting to watch junk instead of education, or if a trend started and T.V. network companies all started giving into peer pressure and following the same trend.

I just hope it ends, because sometimes I feel the internet has too much information, but the advantage of T.V. is that windows of time force you to compact information and polish it nicely in that window of time. The internet can burn so much of my time getting the same information by looking at one thing after another.


I honestly have always preferred T.V. meteorology coverage on severe weather any day over the internet because of this. Which is why the TWC needs to focus on improving this aspect. They were really good back when the covered the crazy hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005, non-stop and widespread coverage without reality T.V. shows.
+55378008 for you ;)
Quoting 908. TimSoCal:
Canoga Park CA
Temperature: 92.2 °F
Dewpoint: 27.7 °F
Humidity: 10%
Wind: S at 1.0mph
Pressure: 30.01in
Precipitation: 0.00in/hr
Daily Precip.: 0.00in


Argh.


Yikes, was supposed to be 95 here by yesterdays forecast, but it was reeled back to 91, and I just checked and it was moved back up to 92 recently.

Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 2:52 PM PDT on April 08, 2014
Mostly Cloudy
90.2 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 11%
Dew Point: 29 °F
Wind: 3.0 mph from the NNW
Wind Gust: 5.0 mph
Pressure: 30.01 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 86 °F

This PWS in just North of me, maybe a 1/2 mile.

Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 2:53 PM PDT on April 08, 2014
Mostly Cloudy
92 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 9%
Dew Point: 24 °F
Wind: 6 mph Variable
Pressure: 29.99 in (Falling)

Your heat index is only 87.
Storms EXPLODING just to my west
We just got hit with 10-15 minutes of intense rain and pea to dime size hail on the MS coast here in Ocean Springs. Enough to accumulate. Very weird. Never seen that here before.
Quoting 920. oceanspringsMS:

We just got hit with 10-15 minutes of intense rain and pea to dime size hail on the MS coast here in Ocean Springs. Enough to accumulate. Very weird. Never seen that here before.




...A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. VERY COLD
MID LEVEL TEMPS (-26C AT 500MB) ARE CREATING STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO OUR
WEST THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE SFC TEMPS COOL AND INSTABILITY DECREASES. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. --NWS Mobile
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 42m
@webberweather Fast GFS bias or not, this El Nino is coming on very fast. Weekly details matter little.
Quoting 901. Patrap:
Studie's show most Southerners find beef Stew,"Boring".


Like hurricane and severe weather seasons, boring is good!
Quoting 921. GeorgiaStormz:




...A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. VERY COLD
MID LEVEL TEMPS (-26C AT 500MB) ARE CREATING STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO OUR
WEST THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE SFC TEMPS COOL AND INSTABILITY DECREASES. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. --NWS Mobile


At least it will be through here and clear up for the the French Quarter Festival starting Thursday.

Laissez les bons temps rouler!
Quoting 923. georgevandenberghe:


Like hurricane and severe weather seasons, boring is good!
I don't listen to the haters.Fresca is like the stale version of Sprite that comes in other various flavors.Don't come for my stew and I won't come for your stale fresca.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I doubt Portlight was the reason TWC got back on air. Porlight does great things yes but that wasn't the reason TWC got back on air with Direct TV. I am glad this happened as TWC has now said that they will revamp their programming. Finally!!

It was quite simple. TWC wanted a penny increase per subscriber views. They also refused to provide the local forecasts because they didn't want to upset relations with cable carriers, including Comcast, part owner of TWC, and the United State's largest cable provider, even though there was no technical reason TWC couldn't provide zipcode level updates. The sticking point was really wanting DirecTV to pay TWC every time a subscriber watched TWC on another device other than what came through the set top box. With the proliferation of mobile devices, DirecTV had to make a stand on this one, since they got no more revenue from a customer regardless of what device they used. DirecTV has to compete with all the internet streaming and over the air offerings today, and subscribers want lower rates to stick with them. That means dropping some networks that subscribers felt offered the least value. In DirecTV's own surveys, only 8% rated TWC as an "essential" channel that would influence their choice of services. Combined with TWC's revenue and subscriber control demands, DirecTV decided TWC was going to be the example to the rest of the providers about what was coming.

TWC's direct public campaign trying to get this decision reversed was a disastrous tactical error. Portraying DirecTV as threatening public safety for the sake of profits, even to the point of asking people to contact Congress about TWC being dropped, blindsided DirecTV and made them really dig their heels in. The language used in the Portlight letter was essentially a rewrite of what had already been written by TWC as part of this campaign.

The LA Times has probably the best summary of what finally led to a deal.

The sign that a new agreement between the Weather Channel and DirecTV was potentially in the works came Monday when the satellite broadcaster and the hotel chain Hilton Worldwide announced a deal that will get DirecTV's service into half a million guest rooms in the United States.
Hilton Worldwide Holdings is owned by the private equity firm Blackstone Group, which also has a large stake in the Weather Channel. Other Weather Channel owners include Bain Capital and Comcast Corp.'s NBCUniversal.


So, the whole deal was the usual quid pro quo usually part of business deals done in private. Today's statement by TWC was a rather humiliating apology for a misguided campaign that went horribly wrong.

Link
Quoting 711. StormTrackerScott:
Pretty strong on the Euro too.

Omg I hope that downward phase pass fast,I can surivive more days with temperatures in the 30s.
Quoting 925. washingtonian115:
I don't listen to the haters.Fresca is like the stale version of Sprite that comes in other various flavors.Don't come for my stew and I won't come for your stale fresca.


I can no longer drink Fresca even if I liked it. It contains grapefruit juice which conflicts with my meds. Grapefruit juice actually conflicts with a lot of meds.
Quoting 915. Gearsts:
Well to tell you the truth, el nino years are dry for all the islands because the lack of tropical activity. Shear and dry air will dominate most of the MDR this year but you survive the 2013 season so i trust that you can make it for just one more season of boring weather.


xD
I got 2 cases of Cracker Jack with the Fresca delivery diz year.

: )




Quoting 928. Dakster:


I can no longer drink Fresca even if I liked it. It contains grapefruit juice which conflicts with my meds. Grapefruit juice actually conflicts with a lot of meds.
Fresca was never "popping" for me a "studie's" show that it's not very popular with the young crowd...Okay I'am done now talking about stale fresca.I would have never seen Pat's comment if 923 didn't quote him.The beef stew was delicious.I'm going to read out on the porch while the sun is still out and temps mild.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't listen to the haters.Fresca is like the stale version of Sprite that comes in other various flavors.Don't come for my stew and I won't come for your stale fresca.

Do they actually still make Fresca? I thought it gave you cancer or something.
Quoting 928. Dakster:


I can no longer drink Fresca even if I liked it. It contains grapefruit juice which conflicts with my meds. Grapefruit juice actually conflicts with a lot of meds.


Me either, and I never liked the stuff either.

Stuck on 90F here, 92 at the Airport.
Quoting 933. PedleyCA:


Me either, and I never liked the stuff either.

Stuck on 90F here, 92 at the Airport.


86F and feels like 92F with Rain... Which of course upped the humidty to like 90%+...

Not nice to be outside that is for certain.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 512 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2014
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SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 355 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 304 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2014


Severe Warnings Issued More Than Three Hours Ago

SVR T-STORM WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 200 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 153 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 152 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 127 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1235 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1158 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 652 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 611 PM EDT MON APR 7 2014
The worst drink ever made.
Folks, I just want you to know that today is the -10 year anniversary of a really unique event that happened. Just amazing to see.
That's the Hook, but then again, youluvtogolf.
Only 4 people know the Fresca saga.
We know who, do you?
: P

Quoting luvtogolf:
The worst drink ever made.

I don't know. I think that stuff they make me drink before a colonoscopy is even worse. :-)
Quoting Tornado6042008X:
Folks, I just want you to know that today is the -10 year anniversary of a really unique event that happened. Just amazing to see.

Let me guess...The Indians won the World Series...no, that can't be it...wait, the Browns won the Super Bowl...no, that's not right either. I'm stumped.
Quoting 939. sar2401:

I don't know. I think that stuff they make me drink before a colonoscopy is even worse. :-)


Thanks for that dinnertime post. :(
Quoting 901. Patrap:
Studie's show most Southerners find beef Stew,"Boring".
Studies show in my house...I love beef stew
Quoting 921. GeorgiaStormz:




...A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. VERY COLD
MID LEVEL TEMPS (-26C AT 500MB) ARE CREATING STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO OUR
WEST THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE SFC TEMPS COOL AND INSTABILITY DECREASES. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. --NWS Mobile


It has hailed here 4 or 5 times today, even when the radar only showed greens. The atmosphere is definitely very cold.
Quoting 928. Dakster:


I can no longer drink Fresca even if I liked it. It contains grapefruit juice which conflicts with my meds. Grapefruit juice actually conflicts with a lot of meds.
Dak....Messes with my meds also...It's ok anyway... Always hated grapefruit...Makes it worse when you take a shot of milk..
Quoting 944. PalmBeachWeather:
Dak....Messes with my meds also...It's ok anyway... Always hated grapefruit...Makes it worse when you take a shot of milk..


why..... would you ever do that
Quoting 936. luvtogolf:
The worst drink ever made.
"TAB" sucked pretty much also...
Quoting 946. PalmBeachWeather:
"TAB" sucked pretty much also...



Don't forget Crystal Pepsi...
Quoting 945. VAbeachhurricanes:


why..... would you ever do that
As my 5 year old granddaughter would say "Just because"
The 'M' storm on the Atlantic list is Marco and the 'P' storm on the E. PAC. list is Polo this year=-O
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Thanks for that dinnertime post. :(

Speaking of nausea, thank goodness I didn't mention Fresca too...oh, shoot...OK, never mind. :-)
Quoting Haiyan2013:
The 'M' storm on the Atlantic list is Marco and the 'P' storm on the E. PAC. list is Polo this year=-O

If the Atlantic season goes as being prognosticated by some, Marco will never make before Polo goes sailing past. :-)
Quoting 939. sar2401:

I don't know. I think that stuff they make me drink before a colonoscopy is even worse. :-)


The results of drinking that stuff are worse, for sure..

Needed a seatbelt on the toilet.
Quoting 871. Bluestorm5:
A 3 years anniversary of tornado outbreak in North Carolina is coming up and I've begun writing a long blog post about the event as well as "I Was There" story of what I did on that day and how much it really mean to me for rest of my life. Hopefully y'all will like it once I'm done :)


Middle TN has three tornado outbreak anniversaries this week. 1974, 2006, 2009. Whew.
Quoting Naga5000:



Don't forget Crystal Pepsi...

Holy cow! I had forgotten all about that disaster. Then Coke fought back with "Tab Clear". It was quite a tussle in the soft drink market before both company's executives realized consumers hated them and they tasted awful. Then they were gone. Who says the free market doesn't work? :-)
Quoting 939. sar2401:

I don't know. I think that stuff they make me drink before a colonoscopy is even worse. :-)


Yes, that is true, thoroughly nasty stuff....
Quoting Dakster:


The results of drinking that stuff are worse, for sure..

Needed a seatbelt on the toilet.

Now you've really got Geoff upset.

I've often thought the entire procedure was developed by Hitler's doctor's because they were mad that they were going to have to commit suicide and wanted to get back at the world. :-)
Quoting Astrometeor:


Middle TN has three tornado outbreak anniversaries this week. 1974, 2006, 2009. Whew.

Well then, that pretty much puts the kibosh on the deal for that middle Tennessee flimsy modular home I was looking at.
Quoting 932. sar2401:

Do they actually still make Fresca? I thought it gave you cancer or something.


THe old Fresca, sweetened with cyclamates was really good. Cyclamates were found to be cancer causing and Fresca was taken off the market. It revived about a year later but I didn't like the new product.

I'm getting too old if I remember this stuff.

I used to like Pepsi also. Then I turned 12.
Quoting 958. georgevandenberghe:


THe old Fresca, sweetened with cyclamates was really good. Cyclamates were found to be cancer causing and Fresca was taken off the market. It revived about a year later but I didn't like the new product.

I'm getting too old if I remember this stuff.

I used to like Pepsi also. Then I turned 12.


RC Cola was my sugar of choice.
Boy it looked as if we were going to have a bust rain event here in Orlando and right at the last second thunderstorms with very heavy rain formed in lake County and rolled into the Orlando area not once but twice. Picked up a solid 1" of rain at my place which is a lot for one day in April as this is our driest time of year before the wet season kicks in late May.

Roughly 13" of rain at my location so far this year. Highest since 1998 going into mid April.
what ever happened to water?
I think its funny how TWC bashed Direct TV on air and all Direct TV wanted was more weather. Funny how the real truth comes out after the fact.
963. jpsb
Quoting 800. bappit:

This is such nonsense. LOL

At summer solstice the north pole receives about as much solar radiation as does the equator during a 24 hour period. That's why the dang sea ice melts in summer. There is a lot of energy coming in when the sun shines 24 hours a day! Of course, there is a lot more sea ice melting now than before. Positive feedback: the open water is absorbing more energy and melting the ice even faster.

do the math it is not nonsense!
Quoting 963. jpsb:
do the math it is not nonsense!


Sigh..
Try saying that to yourself when you visit "The Other Blog"
Nice week coming up for West Palm Beach...

Link

Another storm line with hail a little bigger than what we got an hour ago.
Quoting 940. sar2401:

Let me guess...The Indians won the World Series...no, that can't be it...wait, the Browns won the Super Bowl...no, that's not right either. I'm stumped.
It happened negative 10 years ago today.
Little cooldown then comes the heat and storms again.

*gulp*


The consensus compared to just a few weeks ago is astounding.
Quoting 962. StormTrackerScott:
I think its funny how TWC bashed Direct TV on air and all Direct TV wanted was more weather. Funny how the real truth comes out after the fact.


I can't remember the last time I turned on the TV to get "real-time" weather. Haven't watched the local weather forecast on TV in years. Only time I watch TWC is if there is a major event on the coast. I think TWC is trying to combat that lost of viewership with weather "documentaries", etc. I am 57 so it isn't like I'm just use to getting my news by internet. Still enjoy reading the paper on the throne every morning. :)
Quoting 969. TimSoCal:
*gulp*



That has 'Super El-Nino" written all over it.
And once again... today's storms go right over my head... Literally.



All that dry mid-level air looked promising for promoting damaging wind gusts, too. Oh well.
Quoting 954. sar2401:

Holy cow! I had forgotten all about that disaster. Then Coke fought back with "Tab Clear". It was quite a tussle in the soft drink market before both company's executives realized consumers hated them and they tasted awful. Then they were gone. Who says the free market doesn't work? :-)


Remember Pepsi Free?

New Coke?

Funny thing, in one of the Back to the Future Movies, Michael J. Fox (Marty) goes back to 1950 and asks the Diner Bar tender for a Pepsi Free. NONE of my kids or their friends get that joke. And he replies, you can have a pepsi, but it isn't free.

Yeah - that colonoscopy procedure is really crappy, from beginning to end.
Quoting 969. TimSoCal:
*gulp*


The consensus compared to just a few weeks ago is astounding.


I think it's time to seppuku.
TimSoCal - That could be some HOT HOT water... Super El Nio if that happens...
Alright I see that no one knows what happened negative ten years ago today.

Well it looks like I'm just going to have to tell you about it. 
977. MahFL
Quoting 903. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Wow the future of travel got even more elegant and luxurious...


That is not coach class, so don't get your hopes up, at best you might get seats that are 1/2 inch wider than a 777, but the airlines, not Airbus, are going to pack you in like sardines, that is where the profit is.


interesting path
Quoting oceanspringsMS:
Link

Another storm line with hail a little bigger than what we got an hour ago.

Your first line if going to fold up before it gets over to me. We'll see what the second line does. So much for the 20% chance of scattered showers" thing. I guess they forgot about the hail part. :-)
Quoting MahFL:


That is not coach class, so don't get your hopes up, at best you might get seats that are 1/2 inch wider than a 777, but the airlines, not Airbus, are going to pack you in like sardines, that is where the profit is.

Like the article said, nine abreast with 18" wide seats in the cattle car section. I hope the whole world goes on a diet before I get stuffed into one of those things. I'm waiting for the "steerage" class seats in the baggage hold next.
Quoting Tornado6042008X:
Alright I see that no one knows what happened negative ten years ago today.

Well it looks like I'm just going to have to tell you about it. 

Isn't 10 years ago today always negative (in terms of time), or is this one of those riddles I never get?

Quoting 981. sar2401:

Isn't 10 years ago today always negative (in terms of time), or is this one of those riddles I never get?
When I say ten years ago, the ago is in the past (negative). 

So I said negative ten years ago today. A negative and a negative make.....
Quoting 978. nwobilderburg:


interesting path


I have a friend that's going to chase this storm. He's native to Australia anyways.

I told him to get pictures/video. Hopefully he listens.
Quoting 982. Tornado6042008X:

When I say ten years ago, the ago is in the past (negative). 

So I said negative ten years ago today. A negative and a negative make.....


A negative and a negative make a pessimist. Or a Kori, depending on context.

:-)
Quoting 984. Astrometeor:


A negative and a negative make a pessimist. Or a Kori, depending on context.

:-)


My pessimism is not dependent on context, Nathan. It's uniform. Get with the program, young lad.
Quoting 983. KoritheMan:


I have a friend that's going to chase this storm. He's native to Australia anyways.

I told him to get pictures/video. Hopefully he listens.


nice. I wonder what a hurricane is like. I havent even been in a strong thunderstorm.
Quoting 986. nwobilderburg:


nice. I wonder what a hurricane is like. I havent even been in a strong thunderstorm.


Wind/rain, and a very delicate love/hate relationship.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
I think its funny how TWC bashed Direct TV on air and all Direct TV wanted was more weather. Funny how the real truth comes out after the fact.

In another press release today, it was announced that Barney Fife (no relation), manager of the TWC "If You Don't Get The Weather Channel You Could Die" public outreach campaign, is being flown to Australia for a special, behind the scenes look at the hunt for MH370. After a few shots of the sky, Barney will be loaded into a Chinese rubber boat and motor out to the approximate site of the pings, and be dressed in a special Jim Cantore (tm) All Weather Parka/Dive Suit, have a long rope tied around his waist, and be pushed overboard, in an attempt to be the first TWC staffer to actually see the black boxes. The Cantore (tm) outfit has a special underwater camera that will broadcast live video until the battery runs out. TWC has announced this documentary will probably only be shown one time, so be looking for this exciting special, called "Dope on a Rope", on TWC very shortly after your next Local on the 8's.
Quoting 985. KoritheMan:


My pessimism is not dependent on context, Nathan. It's uniform. Get with the program, young lad.


No, I meant pessimism as in another person entirely. In rare cases a double negative can lead to a you.
990. beell
Quoting 979. sar2401:

Your first line if going to fold up before it gets over to me. We'll see what the second line does. So much for the 20% chance of scattered showers" thing. I guess they forgot about the hail part. :-)


You need some new weather guys, sar!
The first Day 1 Outlook for Monday and today.


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT MON APR 07 2014

...KS/OK/TX...
A WEAK SURFACE WIND SHIFT AND A N-S ORIENTED MIDLEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM W-E ACROSS KS...OK AND TX TODAY. SURFACE HEATING BENEATH COLD 500 MB TEMPERATURES /RANGING FROM -22 TO -26 C/ WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL TEND TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION...THOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS TX. WEAK INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 300-700 J PER KG/ SHOULD GENERALLY LIMIT THE NEED TO INTRODUCE HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME...BUT A FEW STRONGER CORES COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR STRONGER WIND GUSTS.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM CDT MON APR 07 2014

...LOWER MS VALLEY...
A SIMILAR CONVECTIVE THREAT /LOW-TOPPED TSTMS/ THAT OCCURRED ACROSS OK INTO CENTRAL TX ON MONDAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THIS AFTERNOON. COLD 500 MB TEMPERATURES /-24 TO -26 C/ WITHIN THE SRN EXTENT OF THE FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS AR/LA INTO WRN TN AND MS. THE COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES ATOP SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INVOF AN EWD MOVING WIND SHIFT. WEAK INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND A GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THOUGH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting Tornado6042008X:

When I say ten years ago, the ago is in the past (negative). 

So I said negative ten years ago today. A negative and a negative make.....

OK, this is one of those riddles. So a negative and a negative make zero...no, that's not right...let's see, a -10 + -10 = -20...that's it...what happened 20 years ago today. Did I get it?
Quoting 987. KoritheMan:


Wind/rain, and a very delicate love/hate relationship.


but you know what life is