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IPCC: Climate Change Increasing Risk of Hunger, Thirst, Disease, Refugees, and War

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:42 AM GMT on March 31, 2014

Climate change is already having "widespread impacts", and has the potential to worsen global hunger, water availability, disease, drought, flooding, refugees, and war in the coming decades if we do nothing to reduce it, said the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) today, in the latest installment of their once-every-seven-year report on the climate. Today's report on climate change impacts and how we can adapt to them warned that "throughout the 21st century, climate-change impacts are projected to slow down economic growth, make poverty reduction more difficult, further erode food security, and prolong existing and create new poverty traps." Today's report by the Nobel-prize winning group of scientists was the second of four parts. Part 1, released in September 2013, covered the physical science behind climate change. Part 3 (due out in mid-April, 2014) will discuss how we can mitigate (reduce) climate change impacts. Part 4 (due out in early November, 2014) will present a grand summary of Parts 1, 2, and 3. Some key themes from today's report:

Food supplies will tighten. To me, the most important finding of the report is the climate change's threat to reduce global food supplies, which have already been negatively impacted, and are at risk to get much worse: “Based on many studies covering a wide range of regions and crops, negative impacts of climate change on crop yields have been more common than positive impacts. Climate change has negatively affected wheat and maize (corn) yields for many regions and in the global aggregate." For the future, the report acknowledges that some areas will likely see increases in food production, due to increased CO2 in the air and more favorable precipitation, but the overall global trend in food supplies will likely be downward (Figure 1.) This downward trend in yields will occur in the face of rapidly increasing demand, as the population grows by 2 billion, resulting in "increased likelihood of under-nutrition resulting from diminished food production in poor regions."


Figure 1. Summary of projected changes in crop yields, due to climate change over the 21st century. The figure includes projections for different emission scenarios, for tropical and temperate regions, and for adaptation and no-adaptation cases combined. Over the period 2010 - 2029, about as many scenarios predict an increase in global crop yields as predict a decrease. However, beyond 2030, more than twice as many scenarios predict a decrease versus an increase. Relatively few studies have considered impacts on cropping systems for scenarios where global mean temperatures increase by 4°C or more. For five time frames in the near-term and long-term, data (n=1090) are plotted in the 20-year period on the horizontal axis that includes the midpoint of each future projection period. Changes in crop yields are relative to late-20th-century levels. Data for each time frame sum to 100%. Image credit: IPCC.

Water availability to people will decrease, as wet areas get wetter and dry areas get drier. Not only does climate change pose huge risks to our food supply, it also threatens water availability. “The fraction of global population experiencing water scarcity and the fraction affected by major river floods increase with the level of warming in the 21st century.”

We're not adapting fast enough to avoid serious damage. The report talks about "adaptation deficits", as demonstrated by our relatively poor ability to respond to impacts from from recent extreme climatic events. "Climate-change-related risks from extreme events, such as heat waves, extreme precipitation, and coastal flooding, are already moderate (high confidence) and high with 1°C additional warming (medium confidence)." IPCC author and Princeton Professor Michael Oppenheimer put it more succinctly to the Associated Press: “We’re all sitting ducks.”

Poor people are most at risk from climate change. Climate-related hazards constitute an additional burden to people living in poverty, acting as a threat multiplier.

Climate change increases the risk of violence. For the first time, the IPCC lays out the case that climate change can add a destabilizing factor that can make violence more likely in countries with social and economic inequalities. "Climate change can indirectly increase risks of violent conflicts in the form of civil war and inter-group violence by amplifying well-documented drivers of these conflicts such as poverty and economic shocks."

Climate change increases the risk of more refugees. "Displacement risk increases when populations that lack the resources for planned migration experience higher exposure to extreme weather events."

Climate change will be costly. Though the uncertainties are high, the costs for an additional 2°C rise in temperature are thought to be between 0.2 and 2.0% of global GDP. "Losses are more likely than not to be greater, rather than smaller, than this range, since it is difficult to account for catastrophic changes, tipping points, and many other factors."

Human health will suffer. "Throughout the 21st century, climate change is expected to lead to increases in ill-health in many regions and especially in developing countries with low income…the magnitude and severity of negative impacts are projected to increasingly outweigh positive impacts. Examples include greater likelihood of injury, disease, and death due to more intense heat waves and fires; increased likelihood of under-nutrition resulting from diminished food production in poor regions; risks from lost work capacity and reduced labor productivity in vulnerable populations; and increased risks from food- and water-borne diseases and vector-borne diseases" (like malaria.)

We can take action to reduce these substantial risks. "Mitigation is considered essential for managing the risks of climate change." Mitigation refers to human actions to reduce climate change. Burning fewer fossil fuels and thus putting less CO2 in the air is essential to mitigating climate change. We should view the next few decades as the era of ‘climate responsibility’, when we can make a huge difference to keep our future climate livable. The report emphasizes that if greenhouse gases continue to rise, the world can expect an additional 6 - 7°F (3.5 - 4°C) of warming by 2100, instead of the international goal of keeping this rise less than 2°F (1.2°C). Princeton's Dr. Oppenheimer compared these two choices as "the difference between driving on an icy road at 30 mph versus 90 mph. It's risky at 30, but deadly at 90." Uncertainty is not a reason to delay climate action, and it is cheaper to act now on climate change than to delay. The International Energy Agency said in 2013 that in order to keep global warming less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels, "Delaying stronger climate action until 2020 would avoid $1.5 trillion in low-carbon investments up to that point, but an additional $5 trillion would then need to be invested through to 2035 to get back on track." The latest IPCC findings will be a key discussion topic for world leaders at a September 23, 2014 Climate Summit in New York City, hosted by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. The summit aims to mobilize political will to pave the way for an ambitious global legal climate agreement to be signed at the critical December 2015 Conference of Parties (COP) negotiations in Paris.

Links
Associated Press coverage of the IPCC Part 2 report.

New Blockbuster IPCC Climate Report: Comprehensive, Authoritative, Conservative, my September 2013 post on who the IPCC is, and how they write their reports.

Landmark 2013 IPCC Report: 95% Chance Most of Global Warming is Human-Caused, my September 2013 post on Part I of the 2013 - 2014 IPCC report.


Video 1. The IPCC released this video to accompany today's release of their 2014 Impacts and Adaptation report.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Anyone care to comment on the prediction of a 8.6 along the new Madrid Fault in the US?

don't really think the number can be predicted...but if it happen before it can always happen again.

December 16, 1811, 0815 UTC (2:15 a.m.); (M ~7.2 – 8.1

December 16, 1811, 1315 UTC (7:15 a.m.); (M ~7.2–8.1

January 23, 1812, 1515 UTC (9:15 a.m.); (M ~7.0–7.8

February 7, 1812, 0945 UTC (3:45 a.m.); (M ~7.4–8.0
1002. aquak9
Quoting 996. Patrap:
The ring of Fire is a complicated thing, to say the least.


that's what I said after I ate those jalepeno-chipotle potato chips
CNN Chile Link
huge fire breaks out in wake of quake


1008. Patrap
Quoting 997. hurricanehunter27:
Sky be careful about posting videos, a lot of them are actually of the 2010 8.8M just being reposted as the 8.0M

Looking at the posters/sources you may be right on a few of those.

I see TWC tweeting there are tsunami pics going around originally from here, a 2010 event.

Even some reputable news is throwing old pics up just to have a cover shot that looks like they have today's pics..
this is no street party really


Quoting 1000. Patrap:
All since the 8.2 in CHile

5.2
75km WNW of Iquique, Chile
2014-04-01 20:29:41 UTC-05:0010.0 km

5.3
111km NW of Iquique, Chile
2014-04-01 20:20:58 UTC-05:0010.0 km


5.4
46km WNW of Iquique, Chile
2014-04-01 19:37:49 UTC-05:0021.5 km

5.5
56km W of Iquique, Chile
2014-04-01 19:33:45 UTC-05:0012.6 km

5.6
70km WNW of Iquique, Chile
2014-04-01 19:24:45 UTC-05:0010.0 km

5.7
95km NW of Iquique, Chile
2014-04-01 19:06:44 UTC-05:0010.0 km

5.8
87km WNW of Iquique, Chile
2014-04-01 19:03:12 UTC-05:0010.0 km

6.2
88km N of Iquique, Chile
2014-04-01 18:58:00 UTC-05:0018.1 km

5.7
92km NW of Iquique, Chile


Foreshocks started with a 6.7 on March 16th. That's an awful lot of lead time for foreshocks.
Wonder what the strong Chilean earthquake sounded like? Check out the waveform audio here: Link



Tsunami travel times
8.2 is a big 'un

"According to researchers, the earthquake was violent enough to move the Chilean city of Concepcion at least 10 feet to the west and Santiago about 11 inches to the west-southwest."

LinkCNN

Quoting 1001. WaterWitch11:
Anyone care to comment on the prediction of a 8.6 along the new Madrid Fault in the US?

don't really think the number can be predicted...but if it happen before it can always happen again.

December 16, 1811, 0815 UTC (2:15 a.m.); (M ~7.2 – 8.1

December 16, 1811, 1315 UTC (7:15 a.m.); (M ~7.2–8.1

January 23, 1812, 1515 UTC (9:15 a.m.); (M ~7.0–7.8

February 7, 1812, 0945 UTC (3:45 a.m.); (M ~7.4–8.0
Where in the US is the new Madird Fault?
a clearer 3d image
purple circles are quakes largest is 8.3
red green line compass heading
dark blue up down
lite blue fault line
white line coastal area

1016. Patrap
Quoting 1013. Chicklit:
8.2 is a big 'un


Tree shaka'

Globe shaker' Cher..

Quoting 1009. Skyepony:

Looking at the posters/sources you may be right on a few of those.

I see TWC tweeting that these tsunami pics aren't from this event.

Even some reputable news is throwing old pics up just to have a cover shot that looks like they have today's pics..
.......Media -__-.........


headin for Fort Worth
Quoting 1007. trHUrrIXC5MMX:
huge fire breaks out in wake of quake




Gasline breaks...in evacuations.
...enn city moova!
Quoting Tornado6042008X:

Where in the US is the new Madird Fault?


Quoting 1019. redwagon:


Gasline breaks...in evacuations.

Im not surprised.. this happened during the Tsunami of the Japan 2011 9.0 quake

Has there been any actual tsunami in Chile?
1024. Patrap
Powerful earthquake strikes off Chile Live

At least nine significant aftershocks -- one magnitude 6.2 -- follow 8.2-magnitude quake off Chile's coast, USGS says. Watch CNN Chile.
1025. Patrap
2 Pings from Chile in my inbox from ReliefWEB.

Blank, both save for time sent...in UTC
Quoting 1023. allancalderini:
Has there been any actual tsunami in Chile?

Yes, there are some reports of a wave just over 6-7 feet tall
Quoting 1023. allancalderini:
Has there been any actual tsunami in Chile?



If you read back in the commits you would no the answer two that
Link Geek Blog with Earthquake News

Wunderground data is being posted! yay...reliable news on this site.
Quoting 1026. Doppler22:

Yes, there are some reports of a wave just over 6-7 feet tall
I am not sure why Honduras is include if there are never waves that reach us. I believe is the position my country is in.
I am just looking at the NOAA National Data Buoy Centre and I see these blinking away.....

SOUTH PUERTO RICO - 230 NM South of San Juan, PR


NORTH SANTO DOMINGO - 328NM NNE of Santo Domingo, DO



This is near the quake zone.
Station 32401 - 260 NM West-Southwest of Arica Chile



1031. Patrap
Hashtag #earthquake




Quoting allancalderini:
Has there been any actual tsunami in Chile?


Tsunami
The maximum Tsunami wave height is 2.4m (7ft 10in) in Pisagua, Chile. This height is estimated for 1-Apr-2014 23:59:38.
1033. Patrap
A lotta water is on the move seems Aussie.

1035. Patrap
New


000
WEPA40 PHEB 020235
TSUPAC

TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 005
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 0235Z 02 APR 2014

THIS BULLETIN APPLIES TO AREAS WITHIN AND BORDERING THE PACIFIC
OCEAN AND ADJACENT SEAS...EXCEPT ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...
WASHINGTON...OREGON AND CALIFORNIA.

... A TSUNAMI WARNING AND WATCH ARE IN EFFECT ...

A TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR

CHILE / PERU

WARNING AND WATCH FOR ALL PREVIOUSLY NAMED AREAS ARE
CANCELLED

FOR ALL OTHER AREAS COVERED BY THIS BULLETIN... IT IS FOR
INFORMATION ONLY AT THIS TIME.

THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 2347Z 01 APR 2014
COORDINATES - 19.8 SOUTH 70.8 WEST
DEPTH - 10 KM
LOCATION - NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHERN CHILE
MAGNITUDE - 8.2

MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY

GAUGE LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL PER
------------------- ----- ------ ----- --------------- -----
CALLAO LA-PUNTA PE 12.1S 77.2W 0158Z 0.12M / 0.4FT 38MIN
SAN FELIX CL 26.3S 80.1W 0137Z 0.67M / 2.2FT 06MIN
ARICA CL 18.5S 70.3W 0116Z 1.83M / 6.0FT 18MIN
MATARANI PE 17.0S 72.1W 0127Z 0.58M / 1.9FT 08MIN
PAPOSO CL 25.0S 70.5W 0125Z 0.26M / 0.9FT 22MIN
PISAGUA CL 19.6S 70.2W 0055Z 2.01M / 6.6FT 12MIN
MEJILLONES CL 23.1S 70.5W 0103Z 0.86M / 2.8FT 34MIN
TOCOPILLA CL 22.1S 70.2W 0109Z 0.42M / 1.4FT 10MIN
DART 32402 26.7S 74.0W 0044Z 0.05M / 0.2FT 44MIN
ANTOFAGASTA CL 23.7S 70.4W 0034Z 0.25M / 0.8FT 18MIN
PATACHE CL 20.8S 70.2W 0015Z 1.51M / 5.0FT 10MIN
IQUIQUE CL 20.2S 70.1W 0005Z 2.11M / 6.9FT 12MIN

LAT - LATITUDE (N-NORTH, S-SOUTH)
LON - LONGITUDE (E-EAST, W-WEST)
TIME - TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT (Z IS UTC IS GREENWICH TIME)
AMPL - TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
IT IS ...NOT... CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).
PER - PERIOD OF TIME IN MINUTES(MIN) FROM ONE WAVE TO THE NEXT.

NOTE - DART MEASUREMENTS ARE FROM THE DEEP OCEAN AND THEY
ARE GENERALLY MUCH SMALLER THAN WOULD BE COASTAL
MEASUREMENTS AT SIMILAR LOCATIONS.

EVALUATION

SEA LEVEL READINGS INDICATE A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. IT MAY HAVE
BEEN DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER AND
COULD ALSO BE A THREAT TO MORE DISTANT COASTS. AUTHORITIES SHOULD
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION IN RESPONSE TO THIS POSSIBILITY. THIS
CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SEA LEVEL DATA TO DETERMINE THE
EXTENT AND SEVERITY OF THE THREAT.

FOR ALL AREAS - WHEN NO MAJOR WAVES ARE OBSERVED FOR TWO HOURS
AFTER THE ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OR DAMAGING WAVES HAVE NOT
OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS THEN LOCAL AUTHORITIES CAN ASSUME
THE THREAT IS PASSED. DANGER TO BOATS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES CAN
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO RAPID CURRENTS. AS LOCAL
CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE ACTION THE
ALL CLEAR DETERMINATION MUST BE MADE BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES AT FORECAST POINTS
WITHIN THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS ARE GIVEN BELOW. ACTUAL
ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN
SUCCESSIVE WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.

LOCATION FORECAST POINT COORDINATES ARRIVAL TIME
-------------------------------- ------------ ------------
CHILE IQUIQUE 20.2S 289.9E 0002Z 02 APR
ARICA 18.5S 289.7E 0011Z 02 APR
ANTOFAGASTA 23.3S 289.6E 0017Z 02 APR
CALDERA 27.1S 289.2E 0046Z 02 APR
COQUIMBO 29.9S 288.6E 0111Z 02 APR
VALPARAISO 33.0S 288.4E 0135Z 02 APR
TALCAHUANO 36.7S 286.9E 0219Z 02 APR
CORRAL 39.8S 286.5E 0251Z 02 APR
GOLFO_DE_PENAS 47.1S 285.1E 0403Z 02 APR
EASTER_ISLAND 27.1S 250.6E 0532Z 02 APR
PUERTO_MONTT 41.5S 287.0E 0546Z 02 APR
PERU MOLLENDO 17.1S 288.0E 0021Z 02 APR
SAN_JUAN 15.3S 284.8E 0039Z 02 APR
LA_PUNTA 12.1S 282.8E 0131Z 02 APR
TALARA 4.6S 278.5E 0218Z 02 APR
CHIMBOTE 9.0S 281.2E 0225Z 02 APR
PIMENTAL 6.9S 280.0E 0250Z 02 APR

BULLETINS WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.
THE TSUNAMI WARNING AND WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE.

THE U.S. NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER WILL ISSUE PRODUCTS
FOR ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...WASHINGTON...OREGON...CALIFORNIA.
1036. Grothar
Quoting 1014. Tornado6042008X:

Where in the US is the new Madird Fault?


In about one year, there were over 1800 aftershocks. If anything even close to that were to happen today, it would be a disaster affecting millions. Nothing none of use would ever want to see.
Quoting 1032. AussieStorm:


Tsunami
The maximum Tsunami wave height is 2.4m (7ft 10in) in Pisagua, Chile. This height is estimated for 1-Apr-2014 23:59:38.
thanks
1038. Patrap
EVALUATION

SEA LEVEL READINGS INDICATE A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. IT MAY HAVE
BEEN DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER AND
COULD ALSO BE A THREAT TO MORE DISTANT COASTS. AUTHORITIES SHOULD
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION IN RESPONSE TO THIS POSSIBILITY. THIS
CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SEA LEVEL DATA TO DETERMINE THE
EXTENT AND SEVERITY OF THE THREAT.

FOR ALL AREAS - WHEN NO MAJOR WAVES ARE OBSERVED FOR TWO HOURS
AFTER THE ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OR DAMAGING WAVES HAVE NOT
OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS THEN LOCAL AUTHORITIES CAN ASSUME
THE THREAT IS PASSED. DANGER TO BOATS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES CAN
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO RAPID CURRENTS. AS LOCAL
CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE ACTION THE
ALL CLEAR DETERMINATION MUST BE MADE BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES AT FORECAST POINTS
WITHIN THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS ARE GIVEN BELOW. ACTUAL
ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN
SUCCESSIVE WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.
Quoting Patrap:
A lotta water is on the move seems Aussie.



Seems that way, but the distance is unexplainable to me.
Quoting allancalderini:
thanks


no problemo
1041. aquak9
THIS BULLETIN APPLIES TO AREAS WITHIN AND BORDERING THE PACIFIC
OCEAN AND ADJACENT SEAS...EXCEPT ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...
WASHINGTON...OREGON AND CALIFORNIA.

... A TSUNAMI WARNING AND WATCH ARE IN EFFECT ...

A TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR

CHILE / PERU

WARNING AND WATCH FOR ALL PREVIOUSLY NAMED AREAS ARE
CANCELLED


does this mean, everything south of San Diego is now under a watch/warning? I'm not quite understanding this...is this a downgrade or an upgrade?
Quoting 1036. Grothar:


In about one year, there were over 1800 aftershocks. If anything even close to that were to happen today, it would be a disaster affecting millions. Nothing none of use would ever want to see.


id say total destruction of much of Memphis and St. Louis
NWS Fort Worth@ 10:43pm on April 01, 2014

Severe storm 8 miles E of Olney is moving E at 25 mph. Ping Pong ball size hail and wind gusts to 60 mph possible. #txwx #dfwwx

turning right, TVS on radar.
look out.





Quoting 1018. nwobilderburg:


headin for Fort Worth
NAM hodograph out of OKC. (27hr)

Looks pretty nasty.
1046. Grothar
4.8 near the coast of Tarapaca, Chile 2014-04-01 22:27:19 UTC-04:00 10.0 km
2.5 45km W of Valdez, Alaska 2014-04-01 22:24:30 UTC-04:00 0.1 km
2.5 38km NNE of Nikiski, Alaska 2014-04-01 21:51:05 UTC-04:00 65.5 km
4.8 97km SSW of Arica, Chile 2014-04-01 21:33:56 UTC-04:00 10.0 km
5.2 75km WNW of Iquique, Chile 2014-04-01 21:29:41 UTC-04:00 10.0 km
4.7 64km WNW of Iquique, Chile 2014-04-01 21:22:55 UTC-04:00 10.0 km
5.3 111km NW of Iquique, Chile
1047. ncstorm
Nightline ‏@Nightline 5m

JUST IN: Tsunami warning center drops Tsunami Warning for all countries, except for Chile and Peru; all other alerts canceled - @ABC
1049. Patrap
Quoting 1047. ncstorm:
Nightline ‏@Nightline 5m

JUST IN: Tsunami warning center drops Tsunami Warning for all countries, except for Chile and Peru; all other alerts canceled - @ABC


Post # 1035.

Was the official text ALert ABC used.

So they owe us residuals.

: P
ringing like a bell

1051. Patrap
Never doubt the Power of a Tsunami from a Large Quake,

From 3 years ago..


1052. ncstorm
ABC News ‏@ABC 2m

Chilean minister of interior: Tsunami Warning for Chile expected to be in place for hours; evacuations to continue - @JoshuaHoyos
Central Oklahoma might be in trouble tomorrow evening if the cap breaks.
1054. Patrap
ADO BHZ CI -- : Adelanto Receiving Station

Australia is all clear.


IDY68009
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

MEDIA:
NO USE OF STANDARD EMERGENCY WARNING SIGNAL (SEWS)
PLEASE BROADCAST THIS INFORMATION IF REFERRING TO THE EARTHQUAKE IN NEWS REPORTS.
************************************************* *******************************

NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO AUSTRALIA
Issued by the Joint Australian Tsunami Warning Centre (JATWC) at 11:04 AM EDT on
Wednesday 02 April 2014

************************************************* *******************************
SUMMARY:
An undersea earthquake of magnitude 8.0 has occurred at 10:46 AM EDT on Wednesday
02 April 2014 OFF COAST OF NORTHERN CHILE.

THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO THE AUSTRALIAN MAINLAND, ISLANDS OR TERRITORIES.

For further information check the Bureau's website www.bom.gov.au/tsunami or call
1300 TSUNAMI (1300 878 6264).

No further updates will be issued unless the situation changes.
************************************************* *******************************
DETAILS:
An undersea earthquake of magnitude 8.0 has occurred at 10:46 AM EDT on Wednesday
02 April 2014 OFF COAST OF NORTHERN CHILE (latitude 19.20S, longitude 71.40W).
The JATWC has assessed that there is NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO THE AUSTRALIAN
MAINLAND, ISLANDS OR TERRITORIES from this earthquake.

No further updates will be issued unless the situation changes.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION:
Call 1300 TSUNAMI (1300 878 6264)
Check the Bureau's web site: www.bom.gov.au/tsunami

************************************************* *******************************
The JATWC is operated by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and Geoscience
Australia
************************************************* *******************************


New Zealand also all clear.


Quoting 1053. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Central Oklahoma might be in trouble tomorrow evening if the cap breaks.
yeah its possible have to see what tomorrow brings I guess
Quoting 1053. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Central Oklahoma might be in trouble tomorrow evening if the cap breaks.

I agree. I think a moderate risk seems pretty likely tomorrow.
1059. sar2401
Quoting allancalderini:
I am not sure why Honduras is include if there are never waves that reach us. I believe is the position my country is in.

Hi Allen. It's because of the Gulf of Fonseca. A tsunami propagating from the south can enter the Gulf and cause damage to Honduras, El Salvador, and Nicaragua, since all have territory that touches the Gulf. Doesn't look like anything big up there though.
1060. Patrap
MCT BHZ CI -- : Marine Combat Center 29palms

1062. sar2401
Quoting AussieStorm:
Australia is all clear.


Glad to hear that you guys and New Zealand are clear. Have you heard anything about Fiji?
1063. sar2401
Weather station at Iquique, Chile airport is reporting again, so that's a good sign.
1065. ncstorm
PzFeed Top News ‏@PzFeed 1m

Massive Earthquake in Chile: - 2 dead - 3 injured - Mass blackouts - 300 Prisoners escaped - 3 large fires - Tsunami warning continues

Caution its Twitter
1066. sar2401
Quoting aquak9:
THIS BULLETIN APPLIES TO AREAS WITHIN AND BORDERING THE PACIFIC
OCEAN AND ADJACENT SEAS...EXCEPT ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...
WASHINGTON...OREGON AND CALIFORNIA.

... A TSUNAMI WARNING AND WATCH ARE IN EFFECT ...

A TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR

CHILE / PERU

WARNING AND WATCH FOR ALL PREVIOUSLY NAMED AREAS ARE
CANCELLED


does this mean, everything south of San Diego is now under a watch/warning? I'm not quite understanding this...is this a downgrade or an upgrade?

No, there are no watches or warnings for California or the West Coast.

Link
Quoting 1066. sar2401:

No, there are no watches or warnings for California or the West Coast.

Link
No there is not, even by your link.
Quoting 1065. ncstorm:
PzFeed Top News ‏@PzFeed 1m

Massive Earthquake in Chile: - 2 dead - 3 injured - Mass blackouts - 300 Prisoners escaped - 3 large fires - Tsunami warning continues

Caution its Twitter
The two deaths shall be missed, the three injured hope for speedy recovery, the hope for power restoration, they really need to get those prisoners back in their cells, and hope for those flames to stop.
1069. sar2401
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

Im not surprised.. this happened during the Tsunami of the Japan 2011 9.0 quake


That picture is from the Japan earthquake, not today. I don't know why that would be posted in today's news. In addition, that picture was clearly taken in daylight. It's dark in Chile.
Quoting 1053. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Central Oklahoma might be in trouble tomorrow evening if the cap breaks.
Yup. Everything look pretty but cap. We'll see if tomorrow might be enough to break the cap or not, but it's 50/50 IMO.
1071. Patrap

000
WEHW42 PHEB 020247
TIBHWX
HIZ001>003-005>009-012>014-016>021-023>026-020447 -

TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER 5
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
447 PM HST TUE APR 01 2014

TO - CIVIL DEFENSE IN THE STATE OF HAWAII

SUBJECT - TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT

THIS STATEMENT IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY. NO ACTION IS REQUIRED AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER... THE TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII IS STILL
BEING EVALUATED.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 0147 PM HST 01 APR 2014
COORDINATES - 19.8 SOUTH 70.8 WEST
LOCATION - OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CHILE
MAGNITUDE - 8.2 MOMENT

EVALUATION

A WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR CHILE AND PERU.
WE ARE STILL INVESTIGATING LEVEL OF TSUNAMI THREAT
FOR HAWAII.

IF TSUNAMI WAVES IMPACT HAWAII THEIR ESTIMATED EARLIEST ARRIVAL
TIME IS

0324 AM HST WED 02 APR 2014

FURTHER STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER AS CONDITIONS
WARRANT UNTIL THE THREAT TO HAWAII HAS PASSED.

$$
1072. sar2401
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, but I would be banned for two years. Let sar do it!

Thanks a lot, Gro! :-)
Evening all.

Sad to hear about the large earthquake off Chile this evening. Looking at Google Maps, it seems Iquique would be quite vulnerable to tsunami, since it is a lowlying peninsula at the base of steep cliffs. Hopefully there would have been enough daylight left at the time to allow people to get away from whatever wave resulted...

I was honestly expecting a big earthquake here. I posted a couple nights ago about there being a lot of 6.0 earthquakes in that region of Chile lately. Seemed suspicious to me, and indicatvie of high stress on the fault.
1075. sar2401
Quoting BahaHurican:
Evening all.

Sad to hear about the large earthquake off Chile this evening. Looking at Google Maps, it seems Iquique would be quite vulnerable to tsunami, since it is a lowlying peninsula at the base of steep cliffs. Hopefully there would have been enough daylight left at the time to allow people to get away from whatever wave resulted...


No, it happened just after dark. So far, it looks like the tsunami was relatively minor for Chile. Iquique airport weather station is reporting again after being off the air for two hours after the quake, so that's a good sign damage may not be too bad in that city, which is the largest closest to the epicenter. It always takes a while for the real conditions to get out, but Chile is well prepared to deal with earthquakes, since they happen so often.
Sar2401 will be pleased to learn that the snows last week in Cleveland pushed them up to their 8th snowiest season :)

Quoting 1070. Bluestorm5:
Yup. Everything look pretty but cap. We'll see if tomorrow might be enough to break the cap or not, but it's 50/50 IMO.
Negatively tilted trough would be more conducive to eliminating the cap.
1078. sar2401
Quoting nwobilderburg:
I was honestly expecting a big earthquake here. I posted a couple nights ago about there being a lot of 6.0 earthquakes in that region of Chile lately. Seemed suspicious to me, and indicatvie of high stress on the fault.

Look at the earthquake history in that region. It's one of the most active in the world, with some of the biggest earthquakes in the world being recorded in the region. There are 5.0 magnitude earthquakes almost monthly in the region, and it's a rare a year passes without a 6.0 and above. If you had to predict the next 7.5 or above quake, the Nazca Plate Region would be a good bet.
Quoting 1078. sar2401:

Look at the earthquake history in that region. It's one of the most active in the world, with some of the biggest earthquakes in the world being recorded in the region. There are 5.0 magnitude earthquakes almost monthly in the region, and it's a rare a year passes without a 6.0 and above. If you had to predict the next 7.5 or above quake, the Nazca Plate Region would be a good bet.


yep...
you know a lot about Seismology and disasters... what did u do for your career?
Quoting 1070. Bluestorm5:
Yup. Everything look pretty but cap. We'll see if tomorrow might be enough to break the cap or not, but it's 50/50 IMO.

It broke today, so that's give me a little more confidence it'll go tomorrow, but only in a localized area again. Regardless, the cap holding until afternoon will allow the atmosphere to become incredibly unstable for early April--how about 4000 to 4500 j/kg of SBCAPE?! Couple that with dewpoints in the 60s, backed winds and an intensifying low-level jet past 21z, and any storm that does form tomorrow could be very impressive.

Quoting 1080. TropicalAnalystwx13:

It broke today, so that's give me a little more confidence it'll go tomorrow, but only in a localized area again. Regardless, the cap holding until afternoon will allow the atmosphere to become incredibly unstable for early April--how about 4000 to 4500 j/kg of SBCAPE?! Couple that with dewpoints in the 60s, backed winds and an intensifying low-level jet past 21z, and any storm that does form tomorrow could be very impressive.
Wish I could chase...
1082. sar2401
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Sar2401 will be pleased to learn that the snows last week in Cleveland pushed them up to their 8th snowiest season :)

Hooray! If my poor relatives had to suffer through this winter, at least they can say it was a top 10. It's a good thing Lake Erie froze over or it would have been a number one year for sure. Dick Goddard, whose 83 and has been doing weather on Cleveland TV since 1960, talked about the possibility of more cold weather and snow last week and got hundreds of angry e-mails and phone calls...and he's about the best loved weather guy in America! I tell you, people are on their last nerve there when it comes to any more cold or snow.
Tsunami advisory is issued for Hawaii.

No destructive tsunami is expected for Hawaii. But sea level changes and currents are possible along all coasts. First wave is expected to arrive at 3:24 am HST.
1084. sar2401
Quoting nwobilderburg:


yep...
you know a lot about Seismology and disasters... what did u do for your career?

Emergency management and search and rescue in California for 27 years. I had to learn a lot about earthquakes and disasters, since it seemed like we got some kind of disaster about once a month. :-)
The 0z GFS looks as nice as the 0z NAM, but winds are even more backed. QPF fields suggest a handful of supercells along the dryline by 0z. Low-level jet is 25-30kt increasing to 30-35kt by 03z. Not terribly impressive, but sufficient.
Quoting 1077. KoritheMan:

Negatively tilted trough would be more conducive to eliminating the cap.


Really hot here in TX - Austin almost 90o today. CAPE accumulating from both GOM and EPAC. OK, head up.
Quoting 1084. sar2401:

Emergency management and search and rescue in California for 27 years. I had to learn a lot about earthquakes and disasters, since it seemed like we got some kind of disaster about once a month. :-)



cool... im hoping to do GIS mapping with some local agencies after i graduate... should be interestign




I could be tired, but something doesn't look right here.
Trough deepens by 0z Friday according to the GFS/NAM:

NAM:



GFS:



If I get in on the action Friday, it had better be better than the last garbage front we had that failed to deliver even 35 kt of wind in the pre-frontal squall line.
Does anyone like the new beta?
Quoting 1077. KoritheMan:

Negatively tilted trough would be more conducive to eliminating the cap.


I see. I'll write it down in my severe weather notebook :P

Quoting 1080. TropicalAnalystwx13:

It broke today, so that's give me a little more confidence it'll go tomorrow, but only in a localized area again. Regardless, the cap holding until afternoon will allow the atmosphere to become incredibly unstable for early April--how about 4000 to 4500 j/kg of SBCAPE?! Couple that with dewpoints in the 60s, backed winds and an intensifying low-level jet past 21z, and any storm that does form tomorrow could be very impressive.


Yup, tomorrow could be insane if we get the cap to break again. Tonight's storms were pretty impressive despite not much spinning going on.

1093. sar2401
Quoting nwobilderburg:



cool... im hoping to do GIS mapping with some local agencies after i graduate... should be interestign

GIS is a great career choice. In addition to new mapping projects, there are literally millions of existing maps that need to be digitized and indexed so you'll never lack for work. I started back in the days of paper topos and plastic overlays. Digital maps were really amazing, especially in helping keep information about large operations current and in one place. We literally saved 500 pounds of weight in our main mobile command post when we were finally able to get rid of all the paper maps.
1094. sar2401
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Does anyone like the new beta?

NO...but I'm a Luddite. :-)
And the band keeps playing the same ol propaganda song. You know why I know this is B.S.? NPR,NBC, and this site, the purchased left wing arm of TWC/NBC says it's so.
Try this, Kyle. Not everyone here acclaims him as much as I do, but for the most part, I find he's pretty helpful.

Link
Quoting 1095. owenowen:
And the band keeps playing the same ol propaganda song. You know why I know this is B.S.? NPR,NBC, and this site, the purchased left wing arm of TWC/NBC says it's so.


Are you denying global warming or the purported terrestrial challenges proposed by the IPCC?
On the subject of negatively-tilted troughs...

Positive tilt:



Negative tilt:



Link
1099. sar2401
Quoting KoritheMan:
Trough deepens by 0z Friday according to the GFS/NAM:

NAM:



GFS:



If I get in on the action Friday, it had better be better than the last garbage front we had that failed to deliver even 35 kt of wind in the pre-frontal squall line.

The boys in Birmingham are starting to get on board with this system after that last couple of runs of the Euro and GFS showing a ~990 mb low and a strengthening LLJ. They were downplaying it pretty much until this evening. All depends on the CAPE and how much elevation we get in dewpoints, but it looks like it will come through here after midnight Friday/Saturday morning, just the right time to make the dog psycho all night. Whatever happened to daytime squall lines?
Quoting 1096. KoritheMan:
Try this, Kyle. Not everyone here acclaims him as much as I do, but for the most part, I find he's pretty helpful.

Link


Thanks man. I know the basics like negative or positive tilts, but it's the deep stuff that I haven't learn yet :)
1101. sar2401
Quoting KoritheMan:


Are you denying global warming or the purported terrestrial challenges proposed by the IPCC?

I think he's been nipping at the joy juice again. :-)
Quoting 1099. sar2401:

Whatever happened to daytime squall lines?


Maybe the same thing that happened to daytime hurricanes? :)
No pretty photos tonight, but I can say that a boned out leg of goat, brined for 3 days in 1/2c canning salt, 1/4 c. brown sugar, 4 tbsp pickling spices to four quarts water, rinsed then braised in a venison recipe after being rubbed all over with prepared mustard and Kirkland brand no-salt seasoning (that stuff's amazing) 30 min. per pound in a covered dutch oven, roasted uncovered for the last 30 minutes... utterly amazing.

We also got a lot of the cold, damp edges of the squalls that danced around us but no precip.

I think all the water displaced by the quake was sucked up by the black hole that ate the Malaysian Airlines jet. Thus minimal tsunami warnings.

Be well, everyone. G'night.

Edit: What I did today
I do know that we need good amount of convergence to break the cap. Someone just tweeted that short range models are looking promising for that so far.
Quoting 1104. Bluestorm5:
I do know that we need good amount of convergence to break the cap. Someone just tweeted that short range models are looking promising for that so far.


Upper divergence also helps.
Quoting 1098. KoritheMan:
On the subject of negatively-tilted troughs...

Positive tilt:



Negative tilt:



Link


Just like a graph in school. / is positive, \ is negative on graphs in math class.
@WxGabe 3m
Hodos in 00zGFS are almost ideal for tornadic supes - in a strongly unstable air mass. If the a.m. runs keep it, sound the alarms.
Hey guys don't know if you are getting this but this is what I'm getting from the NHC site

ERROR

The requested URL could not be retrieved

The following error was encountered while trying to retrieve the URL: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/

Unable to forward this request at this time.

This request could not be forwarded to the origin server or to any parent caches. The most likely cause for this error is that the cache administrator does not allow this cache to make direct connections to origin servers, and all configured parent caches are currently unreachable.

Your cache administrator is noaa.web.edge@noaa.gov.

Quoting 1108. wunderkidcayman:
Hey guys don't know if you are getting this but this is what I'm getting from the NHC site

ERROR

The requested URL could not be retrieved

The following error was encountered while trying to retrieve the URL: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/

Unable to forward this request at this time.

This request could not be forwarded to the origin server or to any parent caches. The most likely cause for this error is that the cache administrator does not allow this cache to make direct connections to origin servers, and all configured parent caches are currently unreachable.

Your cache administrator is noaa.web.edge@noaa.gov.



Not working here either.
1110. sar2401
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Hey guys don't know if you are getting this but this is what I'm getting from the NHC site

ERROR

The requested URL could not be retrieved

The following error was encountered while trying to retrieve the URL: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/

Unable to forward this request at this time.

This request could not be forwarded to the origin server or to any parent caches. The most likely cause for this error is that the cache administrator does not allow this cache to make direct connections to origin servers, and all configured parent caches are currently unreachable.

Your cache administrator is noaa.web.edge@noaa.gov.


Same thing here. Looks like the parent server is down and the URL was trying to access the cache. Probably some maintenance work. Always happens around this time.

EDIT: Uh oh. Same error at the SPC. Looks like this may a bigger failure at the parent NOAA server farm.
Yup, can't reach NHC's page. Interesting.
Quoting 1110. sar2401:

Same thing here. Looks like the parent server is down and the URL was trying to access the cache. Probably some maintenance work. Always happens around this time.


Better now than during hurricane duress.
1113. sar2401
Quoting KoritheMan:


Better now than during hurricane duress.

Definitely looks like a high level failure of all NOAA long range products sites. HPC site returns the same error. Lots of cellphones must be going off with the NOAA server teams.
1114. Thrawst
Quoting 1111. Astrometeor:
Yup, can't reach NHC's page. Interesting.


Also the SPC website is down.
1115. sar2401
All the tsunami watches and warnings have been cancelled except for Hawaii. It's just an advisory for Hawaii.
Quoting 1114. Thrawst:


Also the SPC website is down.

Quite a few NOAA sites are down right now, including the main NOAA website.
1117. sar2401
Quoting Thrawst:


Also the SPC website is down.

Yes. Check #1110. Big trouble in NOAA city this morning.
Quoting 1101. sar2401:

I think he's been nipping at the joy juice again. :-)


Well, the only times I've seen that guy post is to complain. And it's not even constructive criticism!
All NOAA sites are down.

SPC stuff can be accessed here in the meantime.
Quoting 1114. Thrawst:


Also the SPC website is down.


Boo! It was up right up until I saw sar's post! Then I re-fresh...and...poof! There it goes!

>:(
Quoting 1119. TropicalAnalystwx13:
All NOAA sites are down.

SPC stuff can be accessed here in the meantime.


I still have the NWS.
1122. sar2401
Seems to have spread to every NOAA site except the WSO's, since they are run off a completely different server farm and high level domain. Every other NOAA site I've checked returns a variant of the same error. Something big blew up.
Most, but not all NOAA sites are down right now. I can still access the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, and Central Pacific Hurricane Center websites, as well as a few others.

Hopefully it's just maintenance, but it they're having some kind of bigger issue, I can't imagine it taking too long to get resolved.
1124. sar2401
Quoting Astrometeor:


Well, the only times I've seen that guy post is to complain. And it's not even constructive criticism!

And it's usually late at night. That's what happens you and Jack Daniel's are good buddies. :-)
1125. sar2401
Quoting Ameister12:
Most, but not all of them are down right now. I can still access the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, and Central Pacific Hurricane Center websites, as well as a few others.

Weather.gov site look OK. It's the high level NOAA domain and all branches that appear to have bit the big one.
1126. sar2401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
All NOAA sites are down.

SPC stuff can be accessed here in the meantime.

Something funny going on there too. All the graphics show as issued at 0229 CDT Tuesday, April 2....time travel?
1127. sar2401
Quoting Ameister12:
Most, but not all NOAA sites are down right now. I can still access the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, and Central Pacific Hurricane Center websites, as well as a few others.

Hopefully it's just maintenance, but it they're having some kind of bigger issue, I can't imagine it taking too long to get resolved.

It's sure not maintenance. Has the look of a software upgrade gone wrong. That could mean 10 minutes to 10 hours, depending on how fast they can track it down and how long it takes to fix. Could also be some bad hardware failure, but there are usually enough mirror sites to keep things running in that case. Oh well, the network guys get paid to be woken up at midnight with screams of distress. :-)
Quoting 1126. sar2401:

Something funny going on there too. All the graphics show as issued at 0229 CDT Tuesday, April 2....time travel?

That's a 1. ;)
Quoting 1127. sar2401:

It's sure not maintenance. Has the look of a software upgrade gone wrong. That could mean 10 minutes to 10 hours, depending on how fast they can track it down and how long it takes to fix. Could also be some bad hardware failure, but there are usually enough mirror sites to keep things running in that case. Oh well, the network guys get paid to be woken up at midnight with screams of distress. :-)

Somebody is a gonna get a fired
1130. sar2401
Quoting Astrometeor:


Boo! It was up right up until I saw sar's post! Then I re-fresh...and...poof! There it goes!

>:(

Sure....blame it on me. :-)
1131. sar2401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's a 1. ;)

What looks like 0229 to me here is actually a 1? If so, they have the worlds worst graphics...or I have the world's worst monitor. :-)
Whelp, I shall make like NOAA's servers and go to bed. Night y'all.

Quoting 1131. sar2401:

What looks like 0229 to me here is actually a 1? If so, they have the worlds worst graphics...or I have the world's worst monitor. :-)

It says "0229 AM CDT TUE APR 01 2014" which was almost 24 hours ago.
1134. sar2401
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Somebody is a gonna get a fired

Nah. A stern talking to and no free candy bars for a week. This is the government and public employees union we're talking about here. Now, if it's being run by a contractor...everyone gets fired. :-)
Quoting 1131. sar2401:

What looks like 0229 to me here is actually a 1? If so, they have the worlds worst graphics...or I have the world's worst monitor. :-)


It says 0229 April 1 2014.

So, 2:29 April 1, not 2:29 on the 2nd.
1136. sar2401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It says "0229 AM CDT TUE APR 01 2014" which was almost 24 hours ago.

Oh, yes....that kind of "1"...I see now...really, I'm an old guy, TA, have pity on me. :-)
Quoting 1135. Astrometeor:


It says 0229 April 1 2014.

So, 2:29 April 1, not 2:29 on the 2nd.

Shh, I got this.
1138. sar2401
Quoting Astrometeor:
Whelp, I shall make like NOAA's servers and go to bed. Night y'all.


GN, Astro.
Quoting 1134. sar2401:

Nah. A stern talking to and no free candy bars for a week. This is the government and public employees union we're talking about here. Now, if it's being run by a contractor...everyone gets fired. :-)

Lol yeah true dat
Quoting 1136. sar2401:

Oh, yes....that kind of "1"...I see now...really, I'm an old guy, TA, have pity on me. :-)


You're a lovable old guy, though. :)
1141. sar2401
Quoting KoritheMan:


You're a lovable old guy, though. :)

Thank you, Kori. Now, if I could just tell what day it is. It always takes me about a month to catch up since they started this daylight saving thing in March. :-)
Day 2 Moderate Risk (in blue outline):

Quoting 1141. sar2401:

Thank you, Kori. Now, if I could just tell what day it is. It always takes me about a month to catch up since they started this daylight saving thing in March. :-)


I think it's Wednesday... Not sure. I get confused a lot too, and I'll be 23 in a week.

Hopefully it's just a subconscious defense mechanism to make my weekly Walmart hiatus seem longer than it actually is. Or maybe I'm just getting old. My dad and his good friend from Garden Center always said I would. I never believed them, though.

:)
1144. sar2401
It's been over 45 minutes now. More than a "Just push that reboot switch over there" kind of problem. Makes me wonder about how bad a really concentrated cyber attack by really smart bad guys could be. I also sometimes wonder if these smaller failures are just test runs. But I usually only think of these things late at night. :-)
1145. sar2401
Quoting KoritheMan:


I think it's Wednesday... Not sure. I get confused a lot too, and I'll be 23 in a week.

Hopefully it's just a subconscious defense mechanism to make my weekly Walmart hiatus seem longer than it actually is. Or maybe I'm just getting old. My dad and his good friend from Garden Center always said I would. I never believed them, though.

:)

Ya know, it wasn't until I was about 25 that I really, really understood I'd never be 16 again, I was going to get older, and I was going to die someday. It just didn't seem real before that. I wonder if all young people think like that or I'm just demented?
1146. sar2401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Day 2 Moderate Risk:


Is that the "new" significant? And what's "cyan"? :-)
Quoting 1145. sar2401:

Ya know, it wasn't until I was about 25 that I really, really understood I'd never be 16 again, I was going to get older, and I was going to die someday. It just didn't seem real before that. I wonder if all young people think like that or I'm just demented?


I can't speak for all young people, but I'm realizing my mortality more and more as time goes on.

Doesn't help that our previous store manager died in a motorcycle accident last week. Coupled with the near-death accident I had myself last year, I realize it could happen anytime.

I still try and take the notion of mortality and nonexistence nonchalantly, though. Wouldn't be me without that lethargy, would I? :)
Server issue, whatever it was, appears to be fixed now.
1149. sar2401
Quoting KoritheMan:


I can't speak for all young people, but I'm realizing my mortality more and more as time goes on.

Doesn't help that our previous store manager died in a motorcycle accident last week. Coupled with the near-death accident I had myself last year, I realize it could happen anytime.

I still try and take the notion of mortality and nonexistence nonchalantly, though. Wouldn't be me without that lethargy, would I? :)

Yeah, those near death experiences are a wake up call at any age, but especially where you're young, and dying seems as a far away as the IPCC predictions of when we reach 200 degrees. Even though I'm a lot closer (statistically) to crossing that Stygian river than you, I really don't spend a lot of time worrying about it. I happen to be a Christian and hope I've been a good one so I can go to heaven just because it sounds like a really cool place, but I won't know if I made the right choice until about 3 seconds after it all turns to black. Maybe the Buddhists got it right...Mormons....atheists? I think I know , but I really don't know that I know. It's that faith thing.

So, the act of leaving the earth is kind of an adventure. It's the dying part I don't like. I hope I'm run over by a bus I never see coming. If not, I really hate pain, so just fill me up with enough narcotics that I have an easy ride across.
1150. sar2401
Quoting KoritheMan:
Server issue, whatever it was, appears to be fixed now.

Not bad. Just over an hour. Maybe they'll still get one or two free candy bars...but that's it...and don't ever let it happen again. :-)

EDIT: Actually, I was being generous...more like an hour and forty-five minutes...OK, only one free candy bar and they get a nasty note put in their files.
i would not be surprised in a few yrs we find out alot of the equip used to study earth is flawed. technology is nice but lets face it. the companies that are make these technical devices do so for a profit. do you really know what the water temp. is worldwide? the finding that are used on this blog are based on these machines. i dont trust them
Morning form wet and windy southern Europe.
Meanwhile heavy air pollution and Saharan dust is forecast for the UK for the next few days:-

"People should be braced for "very high" levels of air pollution over the next few days, experts have warned.

The East of England and Midlands are the worst-affected areas today but large swathes of England and Wales will see high levels of pollution tomorrow, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) said."

Here's the link:-

Link
Quoting 1151. islander101010:
i would not be surprised in a few yrs we find out alot of the equip used to study earth is flawed. technology is nice but lets face it. the companies that are make these technical devices do so for a profit. do you really know what the water temp. is worldwide? the finding that are used on this blog are based on these machines. i dont trust them


So... what do you trust? Human intuition, which is intrinsically more flawed?
Quoting 202. ColoradoBob1:
NOVOSIBIRSK, Russia, April 2 (RIA Novosti) – Record-setting temperatures topping 71 degrees Fahrenheit (22 Celsius) were recorded Tuesday in several cities in Russia’s Siberia, a representative of the Novosibirsk meteorological service told RIA Novosti Wednesday.

“It was the hottest April 1 on record for several western Siberian cities, including Novosibirsk, Tomsk, Kemerovo, Barnaul and Gorno-Altaysk,” Renad Yagudin said.

“The average temperature in Russia has increased 0.4 degrees every ten years. Overall, the temperature in the area is 6.5-16.2 degrees Fahrenheit (2-9 Celsius) higher than the record set in 1989,” he added.

Wednesday was also expected to be a record-breaking day for western Siberia.

According to Aleksander Frolov, the head of Russia’s Agency on Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring, global warming will have a greater impact on Russia than any other region in the world.

Link


In the last 35 years, the average temperature in Russia increased by 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit), while the average figure worldwide is 0.8 degrees Celsius (1.4 Fahrenheit), government meteorologists have said.

Some parts of Russia have shown even more extreme warming. In the Arctic, south Chukotka and Kamchatka regions temperatures have risen 150 to 200 percent more than in the rest of the country.

In October last year, Norwegian and Russian scientists said that surface water in the Barents Sea was 5 degrees Celsius warmer than normal. They linked the peak-temperatures with the unusually warm summer in the northernmost parts of mainland Norway and on Russia's northern Kola Peninsula.
Quoting 1151. islander101010:
i would not be surprised in a few yrs we find out alot of the equip used to study earth is flawed. technology is nice but lets face it. the companies that are make these technical devices do so for a profit. do you really know what the water temp. is worldwide? the finding that are used on this blog are based on these machines. i dont trust them


If the Koch Brothers made them would you feel better ? Or maybe the Russians ?
The weather appeared to be playing something of an April fool’s joke across much of South Australia, Victoria and parts of Tasmania on Tuesday. Many parts had their hottest April day in nine years with temperatures generally reaching the low to mid 30’s Celsius.

Meanwhile, some centres actually had their hottest April day in history. Hobart, Tasmania broke a 120 year old record with an afternoon temperature of 31 Celsius. This is 14 degrees above the monthly record and beats the previous April maximum set in 1941.


Link
Australia experiencing more extreme heat, high fire danger days, says the latest State of the Climate report


Australia is being hit by more days of extreme heat and high fire danger, trends that may accelerate as the planet heats up, says the latest State of the Climate report by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO.

The biennial survey found mean temperatures nationwide had risen 0.9 degrees since 1910 and will be another 0.6 to 1.5 degrees warmer by 2030, compared with the 1980-99 average. Further, southern Australia is drying out.

By 2050, if greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow at the pace of the past decade, temperatures will rise between 2.2 and 5 degrees above the 1980-99 average, the agencies said. "We expect there to be a continuation of (the) warming and probably an acceleration … in the decades to come," said Penny Whetton, a climate projection expert at CSIRO.


Link
Quoting 1157. ColoradoBob1:
Australia experiencing more extreme heat, high fire danger days, says the latest State of the Climate report


Australia is being hit by more days of extreme heat and high fire danger, trends that may accelerate as the planet heats up, says the latest State of the Climate report by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO.

The biennial survey found mean temperatures nationwide had risen 0.9 degrees since 1910 and will be another 0.6 to 1.5 degrees warmer by 2030, compared with the 1980-99 average. Further, southern Australia is drying out.

By 2050, if greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow at the pace of the past decade, temperatures will rise between 2.2 and 5 degrees above the 1980-99 average, the agencies said. "We expect there to be a continuation of (the) warming and probably an acceleration %u2026 in the decades to come," said Penny Whetton, a climate projection expert at CSIRO.


Link


The report makes for some grim reading for farmers reliant on cool season rains. Since the mid-1990s, rainfall in south-east Australia has fallen 25 per cent for April and May, and 15 per cent for the late-autumn, early-winter period.

South-west Western Australia, Australia's main source of wheat exports, has seen average winter rainfall sink 17 per cent since 1970, while run-off into streams has dropped by more than half.



Hey jus a heads up to you guys new TWO 5 day graphics example is shown on here
Link
Bob's comments from 1154 to 1158, show a dramatic change in marginal regions.
Both are experiencing temp rises and in the case of Australia the area is already marginal desert and probably on it way to becoming real desert within the next few years.
A big area of food production taken out of the equation, meanwhile with increased populations the food demand is going to increase rapidly.
The Russian heat problem has an even more sinister aspect to it, in that there is a lot of permafrost up in those areas which will not only cause problems to the ground stability by melting but in itself also contribute's more greenhouse gases which are presently locked up in the frozen areas.
Meanwhile stable climatic areas with little climatic problems may start to experience changes soon leading to concern.
There certainly seems to be a lot more interest in climate change than there was a few years ago amongst the general background masses!
1161. VR46L
Good Morning folks!!!




1162. LargoFl
Good Morning!.......................
1163. LargoFl
7day tampa bay,doesnt look like the cold gets here so far anyway...
1164. ncstorm
Good Morning







1165. LargoFl
sunny and warm here in my area supposedly today......
1166. barbamz
Hi folks. As PlazaRed already has stated an exceptional high concentration of dust aka SAL is forecast to be advected to southwestern and western Europe, especially to the Mediterranean coast of Spain:


Saved image. Source: SKIRON.

Culprit is low "Karola":


1167. VR46L
Quoting 1166. barbamz:
Hi folks. As PlazaRed already has stated an exceptional high concentration of dust aka SAL is forecast to be advected to southwestern and western Europe, especially to the Mediterranean coast of Spain:


Saved image. Source: SKIRON.

Culprit is low "Karola":




Its been around here since sunday ... horrible



1168. barbamz
Quoting 1167. VR46L:


Its been around here since sunday ... horrible





At least it's very unlikely that a hurricane could develop and hit UK, lol.
1169. ncstorm
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1h

After the lowest March Tornado count in at least 10 years, April looks active. Next 3 days, esp tomorrow, start it pic.twitter.com/9WK20By8ch

1170. hydrus
Quoting 1151. islander101010:
i would not be surprised in a few yrs we find out alot of the equip used to study earth is flawed. technology is nice but lets face it. the companies that are make these technical devices do so for a profit. do you really know what the water temp. is worldwide? the finding that are used on this blog are based on these machines. i dont trust them
Machines are about as good as the humans that make and program them..It seems that its trial and error, then process of elimination.
1171. LargoFl
I think people forget..earths climate is always changing,never stays the same for long..no different in these so called modern times..we humans just need to adjust to the changes,something most other animals find hard to do..but we are somewhat different..we can
1172. LargoFl














WWW.GLOBALINCIDENTMAP.COM

Type: EarthQuake
4 hours ago
Magnitude: 4.2
DateTime: 2014-04-02 03:51:38
Region: Oaxaca, Mexico
Depth: 121
Source: CSEM-EMSC Feed
Quoting 1170. hydrus:
Machines are about as good as the humans that make and program them..It seems that its trial and error, then process of elimination.


Machines are BETTER than the humans that make and program them for the tasks they're made for. That's why we make them. They do the tasks more efficiently, consistently, and with far less error than a human could.
1174. LargoFl
DOC...the new Beta site looks great!!
1175. beell
Quoting 1173. Xyrus2000:


Machines are BETTER than the humans that make and program them for the tasks they're made for. That's why we make them. They do the tasks more efficiently, consistently, and with far less error than a human could.


but can they fart to the tune of "Yankee Doodle Dandy"?
Quoting 956. Patrap:

000
WEPA40 PHEB 020131
TSUPAC

TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 004
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 0131Z 02 APR 2014

THIS BULLETIN APPLIES TO AREAS WITHIN AND BORDERING THE PACIFIC
OCEAN AND ADJACENT SEAS...EXCEPT ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...
WASHINGTON...OREGON AND CALIFORNIA.

... A TSUNAMI WARNING AND WATCH ARE IN EFFECT ...

A TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR

CHILE / PERU / ECUADOR / COLOMBIA / PANAMA

A TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR

COSTA RICA / NICARAGUA / EL SALVADOR / GUATEMALA / MEXICO /
HONDURAS

FOR ALL OTHER AREAS COVERED BY THIS BULLETIN... IT IS FOR
INFORMATION ONLY AT THIS TIME.

THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 2347Z 01 APR 2014
COORDINATES - 19.8 SOUTH 70.8 WEST
DEPTH - 10 KM
LOCATION - NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHERN CHILE
MAGNITUDE - 8.2

MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY

GAUGE LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL PER
------------------- ----- ------ ----- --------------- -----
MEJILLONES CL 23.1S 70.5W 0103Z 0.86M / 2.8FT 32MIN
MATARANI PE 17.0S 72.1W 0108Z 0.56M / 1.8FT 10MIN
TOCOPILLA CL 22.1S 70.2W 0109Z 0.42M / 1.4FT 10MIN
PISAGUA CL 19.6S 70.2W 0055Z 1.96M / 6.4FT 12MIN
ARICA CL 18.5S 70.3W 0021Z 0.98M / 3.2FT 36MIN
ANTOFAGASTA CL 23.7S 70.4W 0034Z 0.25M / 0.8FT 18MIN
PATACHE CL 20.8S 70.2W 0015Z 1.51M / 5.0FT 10MIN
IQUIQUE CL 20.2S 70.1W 0005Z 2.11M / 6.9FT 12MIN

LAT - LATITUDE (N-NORTH, S-SOUTH)
LON - LONGITUDE (E-EAST, W-WEST)
TIME - TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT (Z IS UTC IS GREENWICH TIME)
AMPL - TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
IT IS ...NOT... CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).
PER - PERIOD OF TIME IN MINUTES(MIN) FROM ONE WAVE TO THE NEXT.

NOTE - DART MEASUREMENTS ARE FROM THE DEEP OCEAN AND THEY
ARE GENERALLY MUCH SMALLER THAN WOULD BE COASTAL
MEASUREMENTS AT SIMILAR LOCATIONS.

EVALUATION

SEA LEVEL READINGS INDICATE A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. IT MAY HAVE
BEEN DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER AND
COULD ALSO BE A THREAT TO MORE DISTANT COASTS. AUTHORITIES SHOULD
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION IN RESPONSE TO THIS POSSIBILITY. THIS
CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SEA LEVEL DATA TO DETERMINE THE
EXTENT AND SEVERITY OF THE THREAT.

FOR ALL AREAS - WHEN NO MAJOR WAVES ARE OBSERVED FOR TWO HOURS
AFTER THE ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OR DAMAGING WAVES HAVE NOT
OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS THEN LOCAL AUTHORITIES CAN ASSUME
THE THREAT IS PASSED. DANGER TO BOATS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES CAN
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO RAPID CURRENTS. AS LOCAL
CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE ACTION THE
ALL CLEAR DETERMINATION MUST BE MADE BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES AT FORECAST POINTS
WITHIN THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS ARE GIVEN BELOW. ACTUAL
ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN
SUCCESSIVE WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.

LOCATION FORECAST POINT COORDINATES ARRIVAL TIME
-------------------------------- ------------ ------------
CHILE IQUIQUE 20.2S 289.9E 0002Z 02 APR
ARICA 18.5S 289.7E 0011Z 02 APR
ANTOFAGASTA 23.3S 289.6E 0017Z 02 APR
CALDERA 27.1S 289.2E 0046Z 02 APR
COQUIMBO 29.9S 288.6E 0111Z 02 APR
VALPARAISO 33.0S 288.4E 0135Z 02 APR
TALCAHUANO 36.7S 286.9E 0219Z 02 APR
CORRAL 39.8S 286.5E 0251Z 02 APR
GOLFO_DE_PENAS 47.1S 285.1E 0403Z 02 APR
EASTER_ISLAND 27.1S 250.6E 0532Z 02 APR
PUERTO_MONTT 41.5S 287.0E 0546Z 02 APR
PERU MOLLENDO 17.1S 288.0E 0021Z 02 APR
SAN_JUAN 15.3S 284.8E 0039Z 02 APR
LA_PUNTA 12.1S 282.8E 0131Z 02 APR
TALARA 4.6S 278.5E 0218Z 02 APR
CHIMBOTE 9.0S 281.2E 0225Z 02 APR
PIMENTAL 6.9S 280.0E 0250Z 02 APR
ECUADOR LA_LIBERTAD 2.2S 278.8E 0239Z 02 APR
ESMERELDAS 1.2N 280.2E 0327Z 02 APR
BALTRA_ISLAND 0.5S 269.7E 0429Z 02 APR
COLOMBIA TUMACO 1.8N 281.1E 0346Z 02 APR
BAHIA_SOLANO 6.3N 282.6E 0417Z 02 APR
BUENAVENTURA 3.8N 282.8E 0433Z 02 APR
PANAMA PUERTO_PINA 7.4N 282.0E 0427Z 02 APR
PUNTA_MALA 7.5N 280.0E 0429Z 02 APR
PUNTA_BURICA 8.0N 277.1E 0441Z 02 APR
BALBOA_HEIGHTS 9.0N 280.4E 0645Z 02 APR
COSTA RICA CABO_MATAPALO 8.4N 276.7E 0441Z 02 APR
PUERTO_QUEPOS 9.4N 275.8E 0514Z 02 APR
CABO_SAN_ELENA 10.9N 274.0E 0531Z 02 APR
NICARAGUA SAN_JUAN_DL_SUR 11.2N 274.1E 0557Z 02 APR
PUERTO_SANDINO 12.2N 273.2E 0609Z 02 APR
CORINTO 12.5N 272.8E 0609Z 02 APR
EL SALVADOR ACAJUTLA 13.6N 270.2E 0628Z 02 APR
GUATEMALA SIPICATE 13.9N 268.8E 0642Z 02 APR
MEXICO PUERTO_MADERO 14.8N 267.5E 0649Z 02 APR
ACAPULCO 16.9N 260.1E 0711Z 02 APR
SALINA_CRUZ 16.5N 264.8E 0713Z 02 APR
HONDURAS AMAPALA 13.2N 272.4E 0655Z 02 APR

BULLETINS WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.
THE TSUNAMI WARNING AND WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE.

THE U.S. NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER WILL ISSUE PRODUCTS
FOR ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...WASHINGTON...OREGON...CALIFORNIA.
Nice try on that April Fools' joke! LOL Good one.
Quoting 1176. Waltanater:
Nice try on that April Fools' joke! LOL Good one.
IT WAS NOT A JOKE THERE WAS A 8.3 OFFSHORE QUAKE LAST NIGHT WHICH GENERATED LOCAL WAVE ACTION
Quoting 1175. beell:


but can they fart to the tune of "Yankee Doodle Dandy"?


You better believe it, brother! :)
clearer 3d image
purple circles are quakes largest is 8.3
red green line compass heading
dark blue up down
lite blue fault line
white line coastal area

Good Morning!

Boring, Repetitive, Precise...that is what machines are for.
With the quake that big and shallow, have there been any waves? I saw the warnings last night but all I heard about today were landslides.
Quoting 1171. LargoFl:
I think people forget..earths climate is always changing,never stays the same for long..no different in these so called modern times..we humans just need to adjust to the changes,something most other animals find hard to do..but we are somewhat different..we can


No one is "forgetting" that climate changes, least of all the climatologist and paleoclimatologists who actually research in these areas. Even in recent history regional climate changes have destroyed civilizations.

But it is different this time around. WE are changing the climate through a combination of our actions. WE are inducing changes at a rate not seen except during extinction level events. These changes are having and will continue to have consequences.

The planet will be fine. Life will adapt as it always does. The problem here is how WE will adapt. At this moment, we aren't even trying. The longer we don't do anything, the more costly it will become to actually address the issues when they do occur.

Short of the extremely unlikely event of a runaway greenhouse effect, humans will survive a warmer globe. How we survive is a different matter entirely.

Quoting 1181. biff4ugo:
With the quake that big and shallow, have there been any waves? I saw the warnings last night but all I heard about today were landslides.



Plzs read back in the commits and you will no what took place
1184. beell
Quoting 1178. Naga5000:


You better believe it, brother! :)


Truth be told, half a measure is the best I can do.
Have a good one Naga.
Interesting plot between 1997 and 2014 in regards to the enso regions as both 1997 and 2014 are featuring a little dip the 1st week in April only to go up again by the end of the month. Although most enso regions are holding steady or falling slightly that still doesn't mean that a "Super El-Nino" isn't on the way.



We should see significant warming occur after April 10th as the MJO moves back in. Also the models are now showing lowering pressures in the Caribbean suggesting we may see early season development in the Caribbean.



One last thing all of this warm water has no where to go but to surface and it should begin to do so in earnest come the second half of April.

Quoting biff4ugo:
With the quake that big and shallow, have there been any waves? I saw the warnings last night but all I heard about today were landslides.


Yes. The Tsunami wave height was 2.4m or 7ft 10inches in Pisagua, Chile.

Chile earthquake: 6 dead, thousands evacuated

Quoting Tazmanian:



Plzs read back in the commits and you will no what took place


See Taz,,, it's as simple as that.
Quoting 1151. islander101010:
i would not be surprised in a few yrs we find out alot of the equip used to study earth is flawed. technology is nice but lets face it. the companies that are make these technical devices do so for a profit. do you really know what the water temp. is worldwide? the finding that are used on this blog are based on these machines. i dont trust them

You're right, it is difficult to get ocean temperatures below clouds, but I'm pretty sure they wouldn't spend so much money to launch these sensors into orbit to not get testable and verifiable results. You can literally fact check these things by taking a boat out into the ocean and taking surface temperatures with an infrared or even one of those good old mercury thermometers.
Quoting 1176. Waltanater:
Nice try on that April Fools' joke! LOL Good one.
Wasn't a joke.
1191. Patrap
Quoting 1171. LargoFl:
I think people forget..earths climate is always changing,never stays the same for long..no different in these so called modern times..we humans just need to adjust to the changes,something most other animals find hard to do..but we are somewhat different..we can


I think you need to study mo'

Thats what I tink.
1192. barbamz

Live Webcam London

Air pollution: High levels to spread across England
BBC News, 2 April 2014 Last updated at 13:07 GMT
Government health advice has been issued amid warnings pollution spreading across England will again hit high levels later.
Defra issued warnings as high pollution levels were recorded on Tuesday.
The pollution - a mix of local and European emissions and dust from the Sahara - is forecast in parts of south England, the Midlands and East Anglia.
The elderly and those with lung or heart disease are urged to avoid strenuous exercise outside. ...

Whole article with forecasts and videos see link above.


Air pollution lowered levels of visibility in London
Looks like our system that the GFS has latched onto is starting to form in the W-Pac now.


1194. Patrap
Quoting 1192. barbamz:

Live Webcam London

Air pollution: High levels to spread across England
BBC News, 2 April 2014 Last updated at 13:07 GMT
Government health advice has been issued amid warnings pollution spreading across England will again hit high levels later.
Defra issued warnings as high pollution levels were recorded on Tuesday.
The pollution - a mix of local and European emissions and dust from the Sahara - is forecast in parts of south England, the Midlands and East Anglia.
The elderly and those with lung or heart disease are urged to avoid strenuous exercise outside. ...

Whole article with forecasts and videos see link above.


Air pollution lowered levels of visibility in London





I don't "trust" dem pictures, folks can easily photoshop in Pollution.

Plus, Man cannot affect the earth's atmosphere, were too small.
Quoting 712. sar2401:

Ebola is very difficult to spread unless you're in direct contact with bodily fluids. It occurs so frequently in Africa because infection control methods are generally poor. This is way down on the list of infectious diseases we should be worrying about becoming a problem in the developed world.


Ebola also has the property, that secondary and tertiary cases
are not as virulent or deadly as primary cases and the index case. In other words it tends to damp out as it spreads through a human population. This is observed behaviour in outbreaks so far and may not occur in future epidemics with another strain of it.

New bugs we don't have resistance to or slightly mutated versions of bugs we did, scare me a lot, in particular new flus or something similar to the common cold, similarly incurable, and deadly.

1196. ncstorm
Event: Severe Weather Statement
Alert:

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
WARREN...MONTGOMERY AND WESTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL 930 AM CDT...

AT 847 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BELLFLOWER...

AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN
MONTGOMERY CITY WITH THIS STORM.
IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BELLFLOWER...HAWK POINT...DAVIS...TRUXTON...OLNEY...CAVE AND SILEX.
THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES...
INTERSTATE 70 IN MISSOURI NEAR EXIT 179.

...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

Instructions: FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING.
Target Area:
Lincoln
Warren
Forecast Office: NWS Saint Louis (Eastern Missouri and West Central Illinois
Quoting 1194. Patrap:





I don't "trust" dem pictures, folks can easily photoshop in Pollution.

Plus, Man cannot affect the earth's atmosphere, were too small.



We really can't build structures to match natural formations either and it's clear the buildings were photoshopped in also. Rumors that London is a major city should be put to rest

(oops, wait it's April 2,.. sorry)
1198. Patrap
Anyone notice the clouds fell out the wunderground logo top left?

The new Logo to come on board this week me tinks too.
Quoting 713. WaterWitch11:
love the fact that the article I found yesterday I can no longer find. googled fracking in CA. holy cow seems a lot do it. there is a bill SB4 that goes into effect in 1/2015 that they will have disclose ingredients used in the process currently 78 of the 10,000 report what is used.
don't quote me...all from memory

but here is the part that I did not realize until just now...we the brilliant creatures that we are put oil rigs on top of fault lines.

happy fools day



We also build condos in front of seawalls in places like Galveston since of
course they will never ever have another TC lanfall..

ever.
Quoting 1175. beell:


but can they fart to the tune of "Yankee Doodle Dandy"?


With appropriate hardware and a device driver, yes. But I'll stick with NWP for my work motivation
1201. pcola57


Three Atmospheric 'Dragons': Low Pressure Areas Around the U.S.
March 31, 2014





There are three low pressure systems around the U.S. and they resemble dragons on satellite imagery. NOAA's GOES-13 and GOES-15 satellite image from March 31, 2014 shows the low pressure systems in the eastern Pacific Ocean, over the nation's Heartland, and in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. All three lows have the signature comma shape that make them appear to be curled up dragons.

According to the National Weather Service, the low pressure area approaching the northwestern U.S. is expected to bring rainfall to the coast and areas of snow that stretch from western Washington state south toward the four corners region. The low in the middle of the country is located over Nebraska and dropping snow to the north and west of it. That same low is bringing rain from southern Minnesota south to eastern Texas. Meanwhile, the third low pressure system is bringing rain and snow to parts of New England.

NOAA's GOES-East satellite sits in a fixed orbit in space capturing visible and infrared imagery of all weather over the eastern U.S. and Atlantic Ocean.
1202. barbamz
Quoting 1194. Patrap:

I don't "trust" dem pictures, folks can easily photoshop in Pollution. Plus, Man cannot affect the earth's atmosphere, were too small.


Changing sides, Pat, lol?


Forecast map about air quality by the University of Koeln. Red is bad.
1203. JRRP
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Interesting plot between 1997 and 2014 in regards to the enso regions as both 1997 and 2014 are featuring a little dip the 1st week in April only to go up again by the end of the month. Although most enso regions are holding steady or falling slightly that still doesn't mean that a "Super El-Nino" isn't on the way.



We should see significant warming occur after April 10th as the MJO moves back in. Also the models are now showing lowering pressures in the Caribbean suggesting we may see early season development in the Caribbean.



One last thing all of this warm water has no where to go but to surface and it should begin to do so in earnest come the second half of April.




1204. Patrap
Quoting 1202. barbamz:


Changing sides, Pat, lol?


Forecast map about air quality by the University of Koeln. Red is bad.


I like to throw a curve ball jus to see um flinch every now and den.

Plus I have a detailed L shoulder MRI scheduled for 11:30 here so If I don't return, they can chew on dat one fer a spell.

The 5C anomaly is much larger this time around.

Quoting 1201. pcola57:


Three Atmospheric 'Dragons': Low Pressure Areas Around the U.S.
March 31, 2014





There are three low pressure systems around the U.S. and they resemble dragons on satellite imagery. NOAA's GOES-13 and GOES-15 satellite image from March 31, 2014 shows the low pressure systems in the eastern Pacific Ocean, over the nation's Heartland, and in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. All three lows have the signature comma shape that make them appear to be curled up dragons.

According to the National Weather Service, the low pressure area approaching the northwestern U.S. is expected to bring rainfall to the coast and areas of snow that stretch from western Washington state south toward the four corners region. The low in the middle of the country is located over Nebraska and dropping snow to the north and west of it. That same low is bringing rain from southern Minnesota south to eastern Texas. Meanwhile, the third low pressure system is bringing rain and snow to parts of New England.

NOAA's GOES-East satellite sits in a fixed orbit in space capturing visible and infrared imagery of all weather over the eastern U.S. and Atlantic Ocean.


Viewed from north to south.. thats the evil debbil number....

Good luck on the MRI Pat.. hope they can fix ya!
1207. VR46L
Quoting 1194. Patrap:





I don't "trust" dem pictures, folks can easily photoshop in Pollution.

Plus, Man cannot affect the earth's atmosphere, were too small.


Shrug

Air pollution: High levels to spread across England

Government health advice has been issued amid warnings pollution spreading across England will again hit high levels later.

Defra issued warnings as high pollution levels were recorded on Tuesday.

The pollution - a mix of local and European emissions and dust from the Sahara - is forecast in parts of south England, the Midlands and East Anglia.

The elderly and those with lung or heart disease are urged to avoid strenuous exercise outside.

Defra has a 10-point scale for measuring air quality - with 1 meaning there is a "low" risk of air pollution and 10 warning of "very high" level


Maybe this is photoshopped .... dust emerging from the Sahara effecting UK and Ireland



Quoting 1207. VR46L:


Shrug

Air pollution: High levels to spread across England

Government health advice has been issued amid warnings pollution spreading across England will again hit high levels later.

Defra issued warnings as high pollution levels were recorded on Tuesday.

The pollution - a mix of local and European emissions and dust from the Sahara - is forecast in parts of south England, the Midlands and East Anglia.

The elderly and those with lung or heart disease are urged to avoid strenuous exercise outside.

Defra has a 10-point scale for measuring air quality - with 1 meaning there is a "low" risk of air pollution and 10 warning of "very high" level


Maybe this is photoshopped .... dust emerging from the Sahara effecting UK and Ireland





methinks Pat was tongue in cheek there Liz...
1209. VR46L
Quoting 1208. indianrivguy:


methinks Pat was tongue in cheek there Liz...


I never can tell ....
Quoting 1209. VR46L:


I never can tell ....


When I finished reading it, I went and looked to make sure I was reading right.... "I" bit... :)Good afternoon to you!
1211. JNTenne

What is going on the WU Logo today????
severe weather later in the day
Quoting 1211. JNTenne:

What is going on the WU Logo today????
we are under construction until the logo rtns normal I guess its a work in progress

1215. VR46L
Quoting 1210. indianrivguy:


When I finished reading it, I went and looked to make sure I was reading right.... "I" bit... :)Good afternoon to you!


Don't see you around much these days , Is the Lake O issue any better at the moment !
new wunderground preview


http://preview.wunderground.com/
Quoting 1215. VR46L:


Don't see you around much these days , Is the Lake O issue any better at the moment !


Well there not draining it right now like last summer which is good but the worry is the Lake level is high for this time of year and the rainy season is just several weeks away which means there will likely be more lowering of the Lake level into the estuaries.

U. S. Army Corps of Engineers, Jacksonville District
Lake Okeechobee and Navigation Depth Report

Data Ending 2400 hours 01 APR 2014


Today's Lake Okeechobee Stage = 13.58 (Feet-NGVD29)

Today's Route 1 Navigational Depth %u2248 7.52 Feet

13.58' is very high for early April.

Here's one of the spill way's web cams.



Here's a link below of where the water goes once released.
Link
1218. pcola57
Quoting 1216. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
new wunderground preview


http://preview.wunderground.com/


Pretty cool..
I like it..
My only issue is I couldn't find where to sign in and out at..

Edit:
I found it..
1219. Patrap
No keep, the old logo is on its way out and the new Logo is to come into being this week...or soon
Quoting 1218. pcola57:


Pretty cool..
I like it..
My only issue is I couldn't find where to sign in and out at..


Get your glasses then
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Earthquake damage.
Quoting 1211. JNTenne:

What is going on the WU Logo today????

Quoting 1215. VR46L:


Don't see you around much these days , Is the Lake O issue any better at the moment !


I lurk here most of the time.. I spend more time on Ricky Roods spamfest more than here until we get back into "be scared" season.

Wellll, the "lake" is fine.. but those that manage it, and who is protected first have not changed. The Florida Legislature is selling our protections, environment and future for financial considerations as I write...
:
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 728 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014
hello