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Dangerous Category 4 Hellen Nears Madagascar

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:14 PM GMT on March 30, 2014

Extremely dangerous Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Hellen is bearing down on Madagascar after an extraordinary burst of rapid intensification brought the cyclone from a 60 mph tropical storm to a high-end Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds in just 24 hours. That 90 mph increase in winds in 24 hours is not far below the record intensification rate of Hurricane Wilma in 2005, which was 110 mph in 24 hours. Official bulletins from La Réunion indicate the central pressure dropped 61 mb in 24 hrs, from 986mb at 1800 UTC Saturday to 925mb at 1800 UTC Sunday. They warn in their 18 UTC Sunday advisory:

HELLEN IS LIKELY TO BE ONE OF THE MOST POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONES EVER SEEN OVER THE NORTHERN CHANNEL SINCE THE SATELLITE ERA (1967). THE LIKELIHOOD IS INCREASING FOR AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COASTLINE OF MADAGASCAR BETWEEN CAPE SAINT-ANDRE AND MAHAJONGA. THE RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE STORM SURGE NWP HAS BEEN RUN AND SHOWS PHENOMENAL SEA ELEVATIONS IN THE AREA EXPOSED TO THE NORTHERLY WINDS (EAST OF THE FORECAST TRACK). THE STORM SURGE COULD REACH 2 - 4 METERS (7 - 13 FEET) IN THE ESTUARY OF THE BETSIBOKA RIVER (MAHAJONGA), AND MORE THAN 7 METERS (23 FEET) IN THE BAY OF BALY (SOALALA), AND 1 - 4 METERS ON THE COASTLINE EAST OF CAPE SAINT-ANDRE. ALL PREPARATIONS FOR A "WORST CASE" SCENARIO SHOULD BE UNDERWAY.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Hellen nearing Madagascar at 12 UTC March 29, 2014. At the time, Hellen was a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Doc !

A Dangerous storm indeed !
Thanks for the update Dr. Jeff Masters. Hope everyone in Madagascar stays safe from the path of the storm and have evacuated further inland.
Thank you Dr. Jeff Masters.
I was expecting the next blog to be about how to help California, but this is even better! (Sorry cali)

Thanks Doc!

First was Phailin, then Haiyan, now Hellen, hmm...seems to be traversing through basins, is the Atlantic next?
Wow. Yikes. Glad I am not in Madagascar right now.
Quoting Astrometeor:
I was expecting the next blog to be about how to help California, but this is even better! (Sorry cali)

Thanks Doc!


You can't help California, Astro. It's a lost cause. :-)
Quoting 5. GTstormChaserCaleb:
First was Phailin, then Haiyan, now Hellen, hmm...seems to be traversing through basins, is the Atlantic next?


Nah, not with a potential El Nino. Maybe E-Pac or C-Pac. Iniki Part 2 for Hawaii?
Quoting Dakster:
Wow. Yikes. Glad I am not in Madagascar right now.

Still can't find a reporting station in the area Hellen is supposed to impact. Anyone know of one? Nosy Be Island is off the air.
This is the kind of blog I've been waiting for! :-)


Eye starting to break down... That's good, I guess
Great blog Doc!
This is one amazing storm.
HELLEN Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator) Loop

Click image to run Loop

click loop to ZOOM

Looks like Hellen has stalled there.
Thanks Doc..I hope for some weakening before landfall.
Quoting 5. GTstormChaserCaleb:
First was Phailin, then Haiyan, now Hellen, hmm...seems to be traversing through basins, is the Atlantic next?
True...Isais...
Quoting 8. Astrometeor:


Nah, not with a potential El Nino. Maybe E-Pac or C-Pac. Iniki Part 2 for Hawaii?
I'm telling you this is the year man. I hope my instincts are wrong, but you know what they say go with the first choice and well one just has to go back to 1992 to see what can happen during an El Nino.
Yeah, that storm must have had a tight core...the ones that are quick to spin up/spin down...this one is definately spinning down fast.
Quoting 19. emguy:
Yeah, that storm must have had a tight core...the ones that are quick to spin up/spin down...this one is definately spinning down fast.
Might be going through an EWRC.
Thank You Dr. Masters,
Quoting 4. Astrometeor:
I was expecting the next blog to be about how to help California, but this is even better! (Sorry cali)

Thanks Doc!



Why does California need any help? Just curious...the earthquakes weren't bad (yet at least...fingers crossed), and there are no flood warnings, etc going on. Drought is something they are going to have to continue to manage and handle though.
Quoting 9. sar2401:

Still can't find a reporting station in the area Hellen is supposed to impact. Anyone know of one? Nosy Be Island is off the air.


I have nothing for Madagascar or Mozambique the closest I have anything on is reunion Island Meteo La Reunion Site

Quoting 18. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I'm telling you this is the year man. I hope my instincts are wrong, but you know what they say go with the first choice and well one just has to go back to 1992 to see what can happen during an El Nino.


Would you like Part Dos to both Andrew AND Iniki? They were the same year.
It looks that they expect it to be a CAT5 soon

Quoting 22. emguy:


Why does California need any help? Just curious...the earthquakes weren't bad (yet at least...fingers crossed), and there are no flood warnings, etc going on. Drought is something they are going to have to continue to manage and handle though.


Severe and long-term drought can't be managed with the crops they currently grow there. Where are they going to get their water from?

Unless they want to spend billions building Desalinization plants.
A very impressive storm indeed, but thankfully well into its weakening phase with the eyewall opening up. Still poses a major rain and surge threat though.

Quoting 20. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Might be going through an EWRC.


Not sure if I'm sold on that idea of an Eyewall Replacement Cycle...This storm is very compact, and while satellite is not as good as radar to monitor such trends...it looks like a true weakening phase with an eyewall collapse for sure and a completely open slot on the south side (arcing out to the southeast)...i.e. no hint of a secondary eyewall forming. So I'm gonna say it's not an ERC.
Quoting 25. Grothar:
It looks that they expect it to be a CAT5 soon

I think the storm already peaked short of Category 5 :)
Quoting 8. Astrometeor:


Nah, not with a potential El Nino. Maybe E-Pac or C-Pac. Iniki Part 2 for Hawaii?
Then Atlantic in 2015?

Hellen
I think interaction with land is now starting to weakening the system.
Quoting 31. Bluestorm5:
Then Atlantic in 2015?


Yeah. Maybe 2015. Especially if what CybrTeddy was saying about it collapsing into a La Nina during the winter headed into spring.

That's if I read him right.
Doesn't look related to an EWRC, no hint of a secondary eyewall. The sudden degraded satellite appearance looks to be related to land interaction.
Quoting 26. Astrometeor:


Severe and long-term drought can't be managed with the crops they currently grow there. Where are they going to get their water from?

Unless they want to spend billions building Desalinization plants.


Well, I'm meaning this as a constructive comment, but they may need to just totally re-evaluate what they grow there then...and how they do it. It's been known for a long time...long time...that California is an area of the country that is highly variable (either too wet, or too dry) and I bet as dry as they are now, they will be too wet next year with El Nino. Fortunately, this is not an absolute crisis...Farmers do carry crop insurance to cover such losses and they will be well covered...but I can assure you their preferance is to farm. Otherwise, we will still be able to eat as a country through thiis Cali drought. That said, as this Global Warming debate (something I have not bought into 100% until recently, despite a 29 year background in meteorology) continues, people gotta think, as I'm not conviced that California can sustain it's water resources in the long term either way. It's just grown too much out there...
Thanks Dr. Masters for the updated blog entry..
Storm surge in Madagascar could be devastating..
And in a stall, the wind and rain will be tremendous..
Thanks again
Quoting emguy:


Why does California need any help? Just curious...the earthquakes weren't bad (yet at least...fingers crossed), and there are no flood warnings, etc going on. Drought is something they are going to have to continue to manage and handle though.

That last blog was, in part, about using cloud seeding to help California's drought. The Doc said he'd have more about it in his next blog. Hellen apparently changed the schedule. Hence, the comment about California needing help...
Quoting 29. emguy:


Not sure if I'm sold on that idea of an Eyewall Replacement Cycle...This storm is very compact, and while satellite is not as good as radar to monitor such trends...it looks like a true weakening phase with an eyewall collapse for sure and a completely open slot on the south side (arcing out to the southeast)...i.e. no hint of a secondary eyewall forming. So I'm gonna say it's not an ERC.
On second look at that map Sfloridacat5 posted I think the mountainous terrain of Madagascar might be choking off inflow into the storm. Still a dangerous storm regardless.
Quoting 35. Astrometeor:


Yeah. Maybe 2015. Especially if what CybrTeddy was saying about it collapsing into a La Nina during the winter headed into spring.

That's if I read him right.


Recent history has shown that if an El Nino collapses into a La Nina, that season on the Atlantic side usually tends to be particularly active. From what I can see, most of the climate models are showing the ENSO leveling off at the end of the year, which could be seen as a sign for an El Nino collapse into early-2015 in time for hurricane season.

That being said, given that we're not even into the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season, it's pretty much useless to even begin to speculate about 2015. Even though this season looks pretty primed to be inactive, we should still provide it our undivided attention.
Quoting 40. sar2401:

That last blog was, in part, about using cloud seeding to help California's drought. The Doc said he'd have more about it in his next blog. Hellen apparently changed the schedule. Hence, the comment about California needing help...


I was just getting into the drone thing too



be great for property protection mobile cams
Someone be pluser 19 so I can be 20.Thanks Doc BTW.Been a long time since a tropical blog was posted.

Thanks wxchaser :).
thanks for the sunday update doc

Weakening Flag : ON

Typhoon 21S HELLEN

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 MAR 2014 Time : 213000 UTC
Lat : 15:20:17 S Lon : 45:03:11 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 943.2mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.3 5.3

Center Temp : -70.2C Cloud Region Temp : -74.2C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 115km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : MET7
Satellite Viewing Angle : 22.6 degrees



Quoting 44. washingtonian115:
Someone be pluser 19 so I can be 20.Thanks Doc BTW.Been a long time since a tropical blog was posted.

You're welcome.

Thanks for the update Dr. Masters!
Quoting 44. washingtonian115:
Someone be pluser 19 so I can be 20.Thanks Doc BTW.Been a long time since a tropical blog was posted.

Thanks wxchaser :).

I got you wash!

Hellen doesn't look as impressive as it did early with the eye filling in and the ring of -70C to -80C convection shrinking, but the storm will still bring serious impacts to NW Madagascar.
Quoting 49. wxchaser97:

I got you wash!

Hellen doesn't look as impressive as it did early with the eye filling in and the ring of -70C to -80C convection shrinking, but the storm will still bring serious impacts to NW Madagascar.

Oh really?
xD 48.
EDIT: On my screen it appeared that I was the 19th pluser. lol.
Oh well.
Quoting 50. TylerStanfield:

Oh really?
xD 48.
EDIT: On my screen it appeared that I was the 19th pluser. lol.
Oh well.
You helped get the pluses up Taylor.Don't doubt your self!.
Quoting 49. wxchaser97:

I got you wash!

Hellen doesn't look as impressive as it did early with the eye filling in and the ring of -70C to -80C convection shrinking, but the storm will still bring serious impacts to NW Madagascar.

Not just NW Madagascar.

Mozambique also has the potential to get the leftovers of the weakening tropical cyclone, and with the sheer size and strength of the storm, Mozambique could be in for it as well.
Quoting 50. TylerStanfield:

Oh really?
xD 48.
EDIT: On my screen it appeared that I was the 19th pluser. lol.
Oh well.

It said I was the 19th pluser, lol.

Quoting 52. TylerStanfield:

Not just NW Madagascar.

Mozambique also has the potential to get the leftovers of the weakening tropical cyclone, and with the sheer size and strength of the storm Mozambique could be in for it as well.
Oh they'll definitely get some gusty winds and heavy rain, just not to the degree that NW Madagascar will get.
Towns at the coast of Madagascar in the landfall area of Hellen:

1. Mahajanga (more than 135.000 inhabitants in 2001).

Google Earth screen shot.

2. Further to the west and even more exposed on a peninsula: Soalala (15.000 inhabitants in 2001)

Google Earth screen shot.

2008



VERSUS

2014



Remember the 2008 HS? Well, do not draw conclusions too quickly.
I think that Hellen reached 160 mph today...
Quoting 53. wxchaser97:

It said I was the 19th pluser, lol.

Oh they'll definitely get some gusty winds and heavy rain, just not to the degree that NW Madagascar will get.

With the topography of the country as well, and the large moisture field the storm is bringing with it, it will spell trouble for anything that it gets near.
But with the strong sustained winds with the storm right now with Hellen, Madagascar is the biggest area to be impacted by the system


Both of these nations are not quite considered "developed" either, which will be a large problem.
Quoting 55. CaribBoy:
2008



VERSUS

2014



Remember the 2008 HS? Well, do not draw conclusions too quickly.

As far as SST profiling, yeah, not a wise decision when trying to discern if a season will be active or not. But, keep in mind the ENSO phase was much different in 2008 than 2014.
Quoting 55. CaribBoy:
2008



VERSUS

2014



Remember the 2008 HS? Well, do not draw conclusions too quickly.
At this rate who knows man, only mother nature knows, and she has thrown us some curveballs lately. Just remember too sst aren't the only thing we look at. Wind shear, vertical instability, and relative humidity are just as if not even more important to a hurricane season. We have seen systems undergo rapid intensification in sub-80 degree sst. A prime example was Hurricane Michael of 2012.
Quoting 59. GTstormChaserCaleb:
At this rate who knows man, only mother nature knows, and she has thrown us some curveballs lately. Just remember too sst aren't the only thing we look at. Wind shear, vertical instability, and relative humidity are just as if not even more important to a hurricane season. We have seen systems undergo rapid intensification in sub-80 degree sst. A prime example was Hurricane Michael of 2012.
Take this winter for example.People kept declaring at the end of February it was over.Fast forward to March 30 and we've seen one of the snowiest March's.Today no one expected much if any snow.
It was them Bears, I tell ya......
Look at the water temps 10 days ago (map from WU): a real bathtub between Madagascar and continental Africa:


Quoting 61. PedleyCA:
It was them Bears, I tell ya......
Yes I got 1.5" of snow/slush.No one expected any accumulating snow today.
From CWG...
Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 4m
An impressive 1.87" of rain (and melted snow) this weekend at Reagan National, still raining:

Source: Tropical Storm Risk. Let's hope for the people down there, Hellen has already peaked.
Quoting 58. TylerStanfield:

As far as SST profiling, yeah, not a wise decision when trying to discern if a season will be active or not. But, keep in mind the ENSO phase was much different in 2008 than 2014.


Yep... EL NINO is eyeing us lol
Quoting 59. GTstormChaserCaleb:
At this rate who knows man, only mother nature knows, and she has thrown us some curveballs lately. Just remember too sst aren't the only thing we look at. Wind shear, vertical instability, and relative humidity are just as if not even more important to a hurricane season. We have seen systems undergo rapid intensification in sub-80 degree sst. A prime example was Hurricane Michael of 2012.


PLUS 100

I want a very high VI and RH xD... maybe with that I will get good rain lol
Winter Storm Xenia Ahead: Blizzard Warnings in Effect for 4 States
Expect more Indian Ocean activity as a strong MJO pulse moves into the region. If we can get it into the West Pacific without losing too much amplitude, it may aid in tropical cyclone development which would in turn accelerate equatorial Pacific westerlies and continue to propel us towards El Nino status.

Quoting 55. CaribBoy:
2008



VERSUS

2014



Remember the 2008 HS? Well, do not draw conclusions too quickly.
But 2008 didn't have and El nino.
Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 4:07 PM PDT on March 30, 2014
Clear
69.8 °F
Clear
Humidity: 37%
Dew Point: 42 °F
Wind: 9.0 mph Variable
Wind Gust: 13.0 mph
Pressure: 29.91 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 5 out of 16
Pollen: 8.80 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1070 ft

Just bit cooler here than at my place. I have 73.3 and that seems to be it for today. Forecast was 70, normal is 73/48....
Quoting 67. hurricanes2018:
Winter Storm Xenia Ahead: Blizzard Warnings in Effect for 4 States
Alright, two more names to go.
Quoting 69. Gearsts:
But 2008 didn't have and El nino.
Can you explain that graph you posted in the other blog.When you said this doesn't look good...
The warm pool has reached 7C. This is over 2C warmer than the 1997-98 warm pool at this time.

The 1997-98 warm pool peaked around 8C in November 1997. Will we surpass it? We've got a huge head start at the current time.

Final Four is set: Florida vs. UCONN & Kentucky vs. Wisconsin. I for see a rematch between Florida and Kentucky.
Quoting 73. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The warm pool has reached 7C. This is over 2C warmer than the 1997-98 warm pool at this time.

The 1997-98 warm pool peaked around 8C in November 1997. Will we surpass it? We've got a huge head start at the current time.

Please no.The winter of 1997-98 was pretty much useless.I'm not sure why everyone is ampted for a super el nino.
some severe thunderstorms, especially by Thursday.
Winter storm Xenia, a Dakotas blizzard
Mar .30, 2014 4:15 pm ET

Midwest |


- Overnight and Monday, any rain quickly changes to heavy snow across the Dakotas and western/northern Minnesota as strong cold northerly winds develop. Blizzard and white-out conditions are likely.

- Parts of western and northern South Dakota, southern and eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota could see 1 to 2 feet of snow, possibly more.

- A few showers or thundershowers may pop across the lower Missouri Valley, the upper and mid-Mississippi Valley and the western Great Lakes.

- Most of the region will be quite windy with north to northwest winds across the Plains, northeast winds across the Upper Midwest and southerly winds in the Mississippi Valley, southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Gusts could top 50 mph across eastern North Dakota and Nebraska.

- The storm exits into Ontario Tuesday with some snow and showers lingering around the Great Lakes. Strong winds will target the northern Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley.

- A new storm increases the rain and thunderstorm threat from the central Plains to the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Wednesday and Thursday. Missouri and the Ohio Valley could be dealing with heavy rain, possibly 1 to 4 inches, and
Quoting 72. washingtonian115:
Can you explain that graph you posted in the other blog.When you said this doesn't look good...
This look:

The Atlantic vs other oceans SST's are below normal, the atlantic is above normal in the subtropics vs the main development region and that causes sinking air i think.
Look at this:
Good

Bad

Is reverse basically. (My english is terrible)
Quoting 78. Gearsts:
This look:

The Atlantic vs other oceans SST's are below normal, the atlantic is above normal in the subtropics vs the main development region and that causes sinking air i think.
Look at this:
Good

Bad

Is reverse basically.
Oh okay.I don't have much hope for this season but things can change between now and August.I don't want to see another storm running up the coast this year.
Quoting 76. washingtonian115:
Please no.The winter of 1997-98 was pretty much useless.I'm not sure why everyone is ampted for a super el nino.

Because of it being a meteorological anomaly. If an El-Nino is going to occur then it might as well be "super". However, I'd hate a strong El-Nino for the same reason, there would be a boring winter. I know I've had a record-breaking winter, but I wouldn't be able to stand a very boring one right after this winter.

Quoting 74. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Final Four is set: Florida vs. UCONN & Kentucky vs. Wisconsin. I for see a rematch between Florida and Kentucky.

Looks like I got to take down my UoM avatar... :(
UoM, MSU, and Jimmie Johnson all didn't win today, not a good sports day for me.
Quoting 18. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I'm telling you this is the year man. I hope my instincts are wrong, but you know what they say go with the first choice and well one just has to go back to 1992 to see what can happen during an El Nino.

The 1992 El Nino faded in the first two months of the season, such that the tri-monthly values were already negative when Andrew formed in August. An El Nino doesn't seem to be the *main* player for reduced activity in 1992, though it might have aided somewhat.
How about 4/3/1 at least we would get a major. I mean it can't be any worst than last season.

Quoting 80. wxchaser97:

However, I'd hate a strong El-Nino for the same reason, there would be a boring winter. I know I've had a record-breaking winter, but I wouldn't be able to stand a very boring one right after this winter.


Omg, I would take much pleasure in watching you have a bad winter. ESPECIALLY after all of that gloating from you in chat, mister.

:D
Quoting 76. washingtonian115:
Please no.The winter of 1997-98 was pretty much useless.I'm not sure why everyone is ampted for a super el nino.

Strong El Ninos mean cold and snow here, so that's a plus. :)
Quoting 80. wxchaser97:

Because of it being a meteorological anomaly. If an El-Nino is going to occur then it might as well be "super". However, I'd hate a strong El-Nino for the same reason, there would be a boring winter. I know I've had a record-breaking winter, but I wouldn't be able to stand a very boring one right after this winter.


Looks like I got to take down my UoM avatar... :(
UoM, MSU, and Jimmie Johnson all didn't win today, not a good sports day for me.
I was rooting for UM, they have had some players in recent memories that I have liked that went onto the NBA. Who can forget the FAB 5.
Quoting 84. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Strong El Ninos mean cold and snow here, so that's a plus. :)
I remember it being lots of snow in some parts in Virginia.While they got almost 40 something inches we got 0.01".
The new changes to Storm Prediction Center outlooks are still set to roll out sometime next month. If you haven't heard, they will be added 2 new categories...Marginal and Enhanced.

For example, April 27, 2011:



I don't see the point honestly. It's just adding more confusing terms and it doesn't address the issue of what "Slight" means.
Quoting 83. Astrometeor:


Omg, I would take much pleasure in watching you have a bad winter. ESPECIALLY after all of that gloating from you in chat, mister.

:D

Should a strong El-Nino commence, then you'll see me start going crazy by January and full on insane in February.
Quoting 88. wxchaser97:

Should a strong El-Nino commence, then you'll see me start going crazy by January and full on insane in February.


Quoting 82. GTstormChaserCaleb:
How about 4/3/1 at least we would get a major. I mean it can't be any worst than last season.

If a track like T.S Dean were to happen again but stronger then we're screwed here in D.C.(This Dean was a far cry from the monster in 07).
Quoting 87. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The new changes to Storm Prediction Center outlooks are still set to roll out sometime next month. If you haven't heard, they will be added 2 new categories...Marginal and Enhanced.

For example, April 27, 2011:



I don't see the point honestly. It's just adding more confusing terms and it doesn't address the issue of what "Slight" means.
wow do I see pink is high!! I did not see that in a long time
very warm in the mid-west today I see 80"S and 70's
Quoting 53. wxchaser97:

.


Sorry about Michigan losing....not

#SEC4EVER
Haven't been on to say it but, it is pure chaos here. I have gotten more then 3" of rain. Wouldn't be surprised if I got around 4". Roads were flooding, there were water rescues all over the place and some places were evacuated due to flooding. And now it is snowing like crazy. I have probably around an inch on the ground, the roads are covered and very slippery. I saw some cars sliding and there has probably been more then 50 accidents in the past few hours. A car even slid way off a bridge. What a way to end March
Quoting 87. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The new changes to Storm Prediction Center outlooks are still set to roll out sometime next month. If you haven't heard, they will be added 2 new categories...Marginal and Enhanced.

For example, April 27, 2011:



I don't see the point honestly. It's just adding more confusing terms and it doesn't address the issue of what "Slight" means.


I guess it kinda fills the gap between low end and high end slights...

Just a little more to remember now....not sure marginal is needed.. Maybe just add enhanced.

Unless marginal fully replaces SEE TEXT
east haven,conn..Next 6 Hours:

Periods of rain. Cloudy and windy. Temperatures steady near 41F. Winds N at 20 to 25 mph
Quoting 87. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The new changes to Storm Prediction Center outlooks are still set to roll out sometime next month. If you haven't heard, they will be added 2 new categories...Marginal and Enhanced.

For example, April 27, 2011:



I don't see the point honestly. It's just adding more confusing terms and it doesn't address the issue of what "Slight" means.
It did get rid of the "See Text" though, which was also probably confusing for the public. Like you said, however, it does create additional problems and confusions. One thing I was just thinking was that marginal becomes slight and then slight becomes enhanced. Would help clear up some of the misconception with the term "slight".
Quoting 63. washingtonian115:
Yes I got 1.5" of snow/slush.No one expected any accumulating snow today.
From CWG...
Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 4m
An impressive 1.87" of rain (and melted snow) this weekend at Reagan National, still raining:


I only got a 3mm coating in Riverdale. My wife , with the twins in Cheltenham saw the first flakes at 4:30PM just north of there near Marlton and about 8 miles south of Upper Marlboro. For prudence reaons I brought the tomato plants inside although they will tolerate chilling to near freezing and I've brushed snow off of my potted transplants in years past.
Quoting 97. wxchaser97:
It did get rid of the "See Text" though, which was also probably confusing for the public. Like you said, however, it does create additional problems and confusions. One thing I was just thinking was that marginal becomes slight and then slight becomes enhanced. Would help clear up some of the misconception with the term "slight".


What public people use SPC for their weather guide? The only people that I know that check the SPC are weather geeks and hobbyists like people here on the blog and elsewhere.

Sometimes I feel like Forbes %-scale does better than the SPC's slight-high scale. But it varies.
Quoting 99. Astrometeor:


What public people use SPC for their weather guide? The only people that I know that check the SPC are weather geeks and hobbyists like people here on the blog and elsewhere.

Sometimes I feel like Forbes %-scale does better than the SPC's slight-high scale. But it varies.

News stations show the SPC graphics when there is the threat of severe weather, just with their own graphical approach.

Quoting 93. GeorgiaStormz:


Sorry about Michigan losing....not

#SEC4EVER

Lol ok.
Quoting barbamz:
Towns at the coast of Madagascar in the landfall area of Hellen:

1. Mahajanga (more than 135.000 inhabitants in 2001).

Google Earth screen shot.

2. Further to the west and even more exposed on a peninsula: Soalala (15.000 inhabitants in 2001)

Google Earth screen shot.


One of the most exposed places on Madagascar is Nosy Be Island. I was there on a dive trip about 10 years ago and remember thinking this would be a bad place if a cyclone hit. The island is pretty rough and not low lying, so the storm surge shouldn't be much of a risk to life, although it will take out the the resorts on the beach. They usually have a fairly reliable weather station (for Madagascar) at the airport but it hasn't been reporting for hours. I hope the people on the island come out OK.

Quoting 99. Astrometeor:


What public people use SPC for their weather guide? The only people that I know that check the SPC are weather geeks and hobbyists like people here on the blog and elsewhere.

Sometimes I feel like Forbes %-scale does better than the SPC's slight-high scale. But it varies.


News 13 here in Orlando used the SPC graphics on Saturday morning ahead of our approaching front.
Quoting 102. Naga5000:


News 13 here in Orlando used the SPC graphics on Saturday morning ahead of our approaching front.


Quoting 100. wxchaser97:

News stations show the SPC graphics when there is the threat of severe weather, just with their own graphical approach


Huh. They don't do that here.

Still, your local meteorologists give their own input, correct?

I would think the real issue would've been if anyone actually knew about the website and got confused there...but then again, I don't know of anyone who does who isn't in some way well-versed in weather.
Quoting Astrometeor:


What public people use SPC for their weather guide? The only people that I know that check the SPC are weather geeks and hobbyists like people here on the blog and elsewhere.

Sometimes I feel like Forbes %-scale does better than the SPC's slight-high scale. But it varies.

Really, unless the SPC is predicting severe weather for an area and it gets on the news, hardly anyone I know has ever heard of or uses it regularly. That being said, why can't they use a simple 1-10 scale, with 10 being the highest risk? The whole text thing doesn't make any sense, and the average person doesn't think moderate means really bad.
Quoting 99. Astrometeor:


What public people use SPC for their weather guide? The only people that I know that check the SPC are weather geeks and hobbyists like people here on the blog and elsewhere.

Sometimes I feel like Forbes %-scale does better than the SPC's slight-high scale. But it varies.

A lot of people check the SPC site for outlooks according to the Greg Carbin (WCM of the SPC). Additionally, many news organizations share it online and during their broadcasts. It gets around.
Quoting 105. sar2401:

Really, unless the SPC is predicting severe weather for an area and it gets on the news, hardly anyone I know has ever heard of or uses it regularly. That being said, why can't they use a simple 1-10 scale, with 10 being the highest risk? The whole text thing doesn't make any sense, and the average person doesn't think moderate means really bad.


It's taken and repasted onto a lot of news stations graphics often.
Quoting 104. Astrometeor:




Huh. They don't do that here.

Still, your local meteorologists give their own input, correct?

I would think the real issue would've been if anyone actually knew about the website and got confused there...but then again, I don't know of anyone who does who isn't in some way well-versed in weather.

Not on the outlook graphic, it's just a copy-and-paste from the SPC. Some stations have their own indexes/input, but they usually use the SPC graphic along side it.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The new changes to Storm Prediction Center outlooks are still set to roll out sometime next month. If you haven't heard, they will be added 2 new categories...Marginal and Enhanced.

For example, April 27, 2011:



I don't see the point honestly. It's just adding more confusing terms and it doesn't address the issue of what "Slight" means.

Or "Enhanced". Enhanced over what? Based on what? Is that worse the slight but less than moderate, which is actually bad? Why do meteorologists not get training in how to communicate in words most people use and understand?
Quoting 104. Astrometeor:




Huh. They don't do that here.

Still, your local meteorologists give their own input, correct?

I would think the real issue would've been if anyone actually knew about the website and got confused there...but then again, I don't know of anyone who does who isn't in some way well-versed in weather.


Here multiple stations use SPC graphics, just with different colors and backgrounds etc. They might mention their own thinking but it's the SPC map they show. They also reference that it came from the Storm Prediction Center.

I don't think any stations here make their own risk maps
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


It's taken and repasted onto a lot of news stations graphics often.

When there's no severe weather forecast? I've never seen it happen once.
Quoting 104. Astrometeor:




Huh. They don't do that here.

Still, your local meteorologists give their own input, correct?

I would think the real issue would've been if anyone actually knew about the website and got confused there...but then again, I don't know of anyone who does who isn't in some way well-versed in weather.



Yes, they still give their own input. The meteorologists here in Central Florida are very good overall.
Quoting 101. sar2401:

One of the most exposed places on Madagascar is Nosy Be Island. I was there on a dive trip about 10 years ago and remember thinking this would be a bad place if a cyclone hit. The island is pretty rough and not low lying, so the storm surge shouldn't be much of a risk to life, although it will take out the the resorts on the beach. They usually have a fairly reliable weather station (for Madagascar) at the airport but it hasn't been reporting for hours. I hope the people on the island come out OK.



Island is further out to the northeast, but apparently just got hit by some trouble in the outer banding of Helen:




Saved image.

Good night everyone, have a nice start of the new week, and best thoughts for Madagascar!
I saw about 2 to 3 inches of snowfall today, but about 0.5 inches of grassy accumulations and slushy roadway accumulations.

It also snowed on this day, March 30th, 2003. I was in Falls Church, VA, an even closer DC suburb than Herndon, and I got a good coating to half an inch of snow from that event. 
Quoting 111. sar2401:

When there's no severe weather forecast? I've never seen it happen once.


usually it's only when severe wx is in the region. That could include as far as Arkansas or Ohio.
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
How about 4/3/1 at least we would get a major. I mean it can't be any worst than last season.


Sure it can. We could beat 1914. :-)
Quoting 109. sar2401:

Or "Enhanced". Enhanced over what? Based on what? Is that worse the slight but less than moderate, which is actually bad? Why do meteorologists not get training in how to communicate in words most people use and understand?
Couldn't they just say "slight/moderate" risk if they really want to make this change?

EDIT: Nevermind that may be confusing as well.
Quoting 87. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The new changes to Storm Prediction Center outlooks are still set to roll out sometime next month. If you haven't heard, they will be added 2 new categories...Marginal and Enhanced.

For example, April 27, 2011:



I don't see the point honestly. It's just adding more confusing terms and it doesn't address the issue of what "Slight" means.


Marginal and Enhanced can stay but from a communication standpoint I just don't understand the usage of "Slight". SPC uses the term to describe an area under an increased threat for severe weather, but uninformed people that see the Slight Risk category on the news like that aren't going to equate "Slight" with "Increased" risk during severe weather. They will interpret it literally and dismiss. At least "Enhanced" and "Marginal" convey some sense of threat, especially Enhanced. Happy to see them moving in the right direction nonetheless. Though it doesn't help that Marginal represents a lesser risk than Slight.
Think IPCC report is out now...
Quoting 104. Astrometeor:




Huh. They don't do that here.

Still, your local meteorologists give their own input, correct?

I would think the real issue would've been if anyone actually knew about the website and got confused there...but then again, I don't know of anyone who does who isn't in some way well-versed in weather.


Then there's the other issue (at least down here) which is, even if severe weather is forecasted for the day, and warnings are issued, a lot of people want to see it with their own eyes before they believe it.

Maybe this is why Tennessee has a high fatality rate with tornadoes...

Anyways, I don't understand the enhanced part. Isn't kind of understood that the closer one gets to a moderate or a high shaded area, the higher one's odds are? Seems kinda pointless to me. Might as well move straight into a 1-10 point system like sar suggested.

Quoting 105. sar2401:

That being said, why can't they use a simple 1-10 scale, with 10 being the highest risk?
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


usually it's only when severe wx is in the region. That could include as far as Arkansas or Ohio.

They are more oriented west here. If there's a risk in the ArlLaTex, it will usually get on the weather, since those systems usually affect Alabama. They could have a raging blizzard in Ohio and never show it. Heck, even severe weather in Tennessee rarely makes the news.
Here's the link to IPCC's report that comes out once every few years...

http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/
Quoting Astrometeor:


Then there's the other issue (at least down here) which is, even if severe weather is forecasted for the day, and warnings are issued, a lot of people want to see it with their own eyes before they believe it.

Maybe this is why Tennessee has a high fatality rate with tornadoes...

Anyways, I don't understand the enhanced part. Isn't kind of understood that the closer one gets to a moderate or a high shaded area, the higher one's odds are? Seems kinda pointless to me. Might as well move straight into a 1-10 point system like sar suggested.


Seriously, imagine if the HPC used the same terminology. Marginal hurricane, slight hurricane, enhanced hurricane, moderate hurricane, high hurricane. Do you think the average person would have a clue what that meant for a hurricane that might be headed for them? We use a numerical scale for hurricanes and tornadoes. Why can't the SPC just follow the same pattern and get rid of the text labels?
Quoting 112. Naga5000:



Yes, they still give their own input. The meteorologists here in Central Florida are very good overall.


Alright. I would be concerned if the TV just put up some SPC graphic with no explanation, especially with the new changes that TA announced.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Think IPCC report is out now...

Give me the executive summary. Are we all going to die and, if so, how soon? :-)
Quoting 110. GeorgiaStormz:


Here multiple stations use SPC graphics, just with different colors and backgrounds etc. They might mention their own thinking but it's the SPC map they show. They also reference that it came from the Storm Prediction Center.

I don't think any stations here make their own risk maps


I mean, we don't make risk maps at all, really. Just: "Some severe weather today, chances for the usual. Remember to tune-in at these times (if there's a specific timing expected) or tune-in immediately when the sirens go."

Otherwise, a lot of it is watching the sky and reacting. Like seeing mammatus clouds and getting away really fast by car...I avoided massive hail storm.
Quoting 126. sar2401:

Give me the executive summary. Are we all going to die and, if so, how soon? :-)
How about 6-11 Celsius increase from average for Arctic by 2100 at worst case. That's just way too extreme IMO ._.

I think IPCC is way overdone as usual, but that doesn't mean I don't believe in climate change either. Just overdone.
Quoting 119. wxgeek723:


Though it doesn't help that Marginal represents a lesser risk than Slight.


Makes sense to me. Marginal is a lot smaller than slight.

From Google:

Marginal, adj.:of, relating to, or situated at the edge or margin of something.

Explains why the SPC has it on the edge of the threat zone.

:-)
Quoting 81. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The 1992 El Nino faded in the first two months of the season, such that the tri-monthly values were already negative when Andrew formed in August. An El Nino doesn't seem to be the *main* player for reduced activity in 1992, though it might have aided somewhat.
But alot of the videos from that time mention high shear when talking about Andrew.
Quoting 128. Bluestorm5:
How about 6-11 Celsius increase from average for Arctic by 2100 at worst case. That's just way too extreme IMO ._.

I think IPCC is way overdone as usual, but that doesn't mean I don't believe in climate change either. Just overdone.
Funny you should say that. The 'funny' thing is, however, most clinate scientists are of the opinion that, due to political interference, the IPCC report actually understates the direness of the situation...
Aha! I knew this had to be about Hellen.... only way I could see the doc starting a new entry on Sunday.... lol..

Evening all.

I was reading the discussion on the previous blog re: cloud seeding with some interest.




York County PA water rescue and flooded roadways
134. beell
From Roger Edwards/SPC-who was kind enough to quickly respond to my inquiry in January and forward the Q&A sheet.
(emphasis added by beell)

...In short, the actual forecast (the probability numbers) wouldn't change at all--just the way it is translated to two categorical outlook lines. Here is a Q&A on the enhancements put together by our Warning-Coordination Meteorologist, Greg Carbin...

Here is a Q&A about the proposal to add resolution to the descriptions used for SPC Outlooks. -Greg

Q: What is this change?

A: The SPC is expanding the number of risk categories from 4 to 5 and clarifying the risk previously labeled "SEE TEXT".

Previous:
1. See Text
2. Slight (SLGT)
3. Moderate (MDT)
4. High (HIGH)

New:
1. Marginal (MRGL replaces the current SEE TEXT)
2. Slight (SLGT)
3. Enhanced (ENH will replace upper-end SLGT risk probabilities, but is not a MDT risk.)
4. Moderate (MDT)
5. High (HiGH)

Q: Why is the SPC proposing to do this?

A: The purpose is to achieve better consistency and resolution between SPC's probabilistic outlooks and the descriptive (categorical) outlooks. These changes are being made based on customer feedback and to better meet users' needs.

"See Text" does not currently convey a threat (due to the lack of a contour in any "See Text" categorical forecast).

The current "Slight Risk" category covers too broad a range of severe weather probability values.

Example: Currently, a 10 percent risk of a significant tornado is categorized as a SLGT Risk which is the same category used for a "low end" risk of severe thunderstorm wind and hail events at 15%.

A primary goal of these changes is to bring better consistency to the risks communicated in SPC outlooks, from the short-range Day 1 Outlooks through the extended range Day 4-8 Outlooks.

Q: How has the SPC decided to make this change?

A: The change is based on many years of feedback and interactions with users, customers and social scientists.

Q: Why not a more comprehensive overhaul of all categorical outlook words (i.e. SLGT, MDT, HIGH)?

A: The category words SLGT, MDT, and HIGH are generally understood by the weather risk communication community. Making measured changes to the current system, we believe, is more effective than a wholesale change.

Q: When will this change occur?

A: SPC forecasters will begin to incorporate the new categories on or about April 8, 2014, for an experimental period of 60 days, during which feedback will be solicited.
Soooooo close

Guys in my personal opinion, I think that the season will be normal with 14/7/3.
Quoting 14. Patrap:
Looks like Hellen has stalled there.
I think it only got as close to Madagascar as it has because of the rapid deepening which allowed it to move further east than originally anticipated. I think they were expecting this stall, then a turn to the west, to take place earlier today, IIRC. I hope pple along Madagascar's west coast have actually been paying attention to Hellen. [though I am sure it's been hard to ignore it the last couple days...]

Quoting 135. BaltimoreBrian:
Soooooo close

Yet so far........
Quoting 133. Doppler22:




York County PA water rescue and flooded roadways
More rain on Thursday-Friday and a impressive storm on the 9th (They show that possibly being snow but models can't be trusted this far out).
Quoting 140. washingtonian115:
More rain on Thursday-Friday and a impressive storm on the 9th (They show that possibly being snow but models can't be trusted this far out).
is it still snowing wash
Quoting 140. washingtonian115:
More rain on Thursday-Friday and a impressive storm on the 9th (They show that possibly being snow but models can't be trusted this far out).

Oh my. I just hope the Susquehanna stays in her banks.
Quoting 29. emguy:


Not sure if I'm sold on that idea of an Eyewall Replacement Cycle...This storm is very compact, and while satellite is not as good as radar to monitor such trends...it looks like a true weakening phase with an eyewall collapse for sure and a completely open slot on the south side (arcing out to the southeast)...i.e. no hint of a secondary eyewall forming. So I'm gonna say it's not an ERC.
Wouldn't be surprised. IIRC there is supposed to be some increase in adverse atmospheric conditions in this area along with a shift in steering. Additionally the channel there as it nears Madagascar is supposed to be shallower, with a bit of an underwater plateau, which would tend to make fuel problematic for a smaller system.

Quoting 129. Astrometeor:


Makes sense to me. Marginal is a lot smaller than slight.

From Google:

Marginal, adj.:of, relating to, or situated at the edge or margin of something.

Explains why the SPC has it on the edge of the threat zone.

:-)


Forgive me for not knowing the specific root meaning to the word Marginal. "Space for a chance" vs "small chance" still isn't doing any layperson reading a SPC outlook much justice.
145. beell
Again...

Example: Currently, a 10 percent risk of a SIGNIFICANT tornado is categorized as a SLGT Risk which is the same category used for a "low end" risk of severe thunderstorm wind and hail events at 15%.
Giant hailstones batter Hong Kong as the Observatory hoists Black Rainstorm warning
PUBLISHED : Sunday, 30 March, 2014, 9:22pm
Violent hail storms struck Hong Kong late on Sunday shattering windows at a Kowloon Tong shopping mall as the Observatory raised the first black rainstorm warning of the year ...

Candace Chan %u200F@candycyt
Black rainstorm signal, hail, broken roofS, flooded shopping malls and mtr stations in #hongkong... pic.twitter.com/3S1Q4QEP8P







Quoting 140. washingtonian115:
More rain on Thursday-Friday and a impressive storm on the 9th (They show that possibly being snow but models can't be trusted this far out).
I would have posted it but I am taking the same grains of salt. Been watching it for days now.
Quoting 147. Tornado6042008X:

I would have posted it but I am taking the same grains of salt. Been watching it for days now.
Late April, Early May is the time. I really am gonna be rocking the beats. MR. FLAVOUR. :)
Quoting 61. PedleyCA:
It was them Bears, I tell ya......
Ayup... u notice she put the bears up again and we got more snow...
flooding in east haven,conn today u comment this picture on here to
Quoting 62. barbamz:
Look at the water temps 10 days ago (map from WU): a real bathtub between Madagascar and continental Africa:


No doubt why she explode. At least it looks the beauty is weakening.
Quoting 84. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Strong El Ninos mean cold and snow here, so that's a plus. :)
At least you get something from El Niño.Honduras typically see drought when there an El Niño.
Watching the show Cosmos tonight, I think Tyson is a good fit for it, and the show seems to have intended to reach the entire age range of audience, which I think is a good idea.


This neighborhood had to be evacuated in Dover Township, York County because of the rising flood waters.
Quoting Doppler22:


This neighborhood had to be evacuated in Dover Township, York County because of the rising flood waters.

Oh, man that looks like lots of fun, with snow still on the ground. :-(
Quoting 69. Gearsts:
But 2008 didn't have and El nino.


Indeed...

But for 2014, we will see xD I pray for interesting weather in the NE Caribbean regardless of the tropical cyclone activity in the MDR.
Quoting 126. sar2401:

Give me the executive summary. Are we all going to die and, if so, how soon? :-)


Waiting for the newscast version of the report as well.

Of course I have to read Fox, CNN, and MSNBS so I get all points of view.
Ok, I hate it when this happens because I don't know which to believe. Winds at ground level (the ones blowing the flag on our flagpole) are blowing south-southwest. But radar is showing the cell to the north of us and some of the cumulus I see to our southeast moving _north._

If you look at the radar for 89406 you'll see what I mean. It feels like snow even though the temp on our weather station is 47°F.
this morning!!
Quoting 158. hurricanes2018:
this morning!!


Yep. The caldera's getting ready to blow. Although they tell you otherwise... Move along folks, nothing to see here...
Quoting 141. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
is it still snowing wash
No.Precipitation is tapering off and should be out of here by Dawn.While others are paying attention to the drought in California as Doppler and hurricanes18 have posted Flooding will be a big issue this spring for the mid-atlantic and north east.
Quoting 160. washingtonian115:
No.Precipitation is tapering off and should be out of here by Dawn.While others are paying attention to the drought in California as Doppler and hurricanes18 have posted Flooding will be a big issue this spring for the mid-atlantic and north east.


You mean your kids will have to go to school tomorrow?
Quoting beell:


1. Marginal (MRGL replaces the current SEE TEXT)
2. Slight (SLGT)
3. Enhanced (ENH will replace upper-end SLGT risk probabilities, but is not a MDT risk.)
4. Moderate (MDT)
5. High (HiGH)

There. Now you have an easy to understand 1-5 scale, just like the hurricane scale, just like the Fujita scale. Simply add the numbers to the text, since it seems like they really want to keep it. Solves the "weather communications community" issue, that only understands text, and the rest of the world, that understands numerical scales.
Quoting 161. Dakster:


You mean your kids will have to go to school tomorrow?
they were upset in hoping for another three day weekend from old man winter.Lol.We now have a wind advisory for gust up to 50mph.Way to add insult nature...
Doing some reading on the Madagascar region likely to be impacted by Hellen... seems they've had a lot of deforestation in order to create farms along the Betsiboka River, which is the one that flows into a delta just south of Mahajanga. So there is definitely some potential for catastrophic flash flooding, depending on how long and heavy the rainfall is there.
Quoting 163. washingtonian115:
they were upset in hoping for another three day weekend from old man winter.Lol.We now have a wind advisory for gust up to 50mph.Way to add insult nature...


Hopefully you don't have bring any poster sized projects in to school tomorrow with 50 mph winds...

Welp I hope your wish for us both to win powerball comes true, just as your wish for snow has.
Quoting 165. Dakster:


Hopefully you don't have bring any poster sized projects in to school tomorrow with 50 mph winds...

Welp I hope your wish for us both to win powerball comes true, just as your wish for snow has.
Lol Dak I'm not a kid no more.My old aching body and the bottle of advil have proved that.I'll have to have on a hat though I just got my hair done and refuse to have it ruined (Nature usually wins during the summer thanks to humidity).

P.S This isn't the first time someone has mistaken me for a kid.,It's nice to know I still have a young spirit.
167. beell
Deja Vu all over again, and again regarding surface synoptics and severe weather this week. Lee low, dryline, warm front. A strong cap all three days.


Valid 12Z Tuesday, 04/01


Valid 12Z Wednesday, 04/02


Valid 12Z Thursday, 04/03
up to two feet of snow on the last day of march
Quoting 168. hurricanes2018:
up to two feet of snow on the last day of march

Mother Nature goes by her own calendar
I see Largo has left the building.Why?.Because we're not talking about Florida?.No one was stopping him from talking about the weather in his state.He had all yesterday to as well during Florida's server weather episode.
171. beell
Quoting 162. sar2401:


1. Marginal (MRGL replaces the current SEE TEXT)
2. Slight (SLGT)
3. Enhanced (ENH will replace upper-end SLGT risk probabilities, but is not a MDT risk.)
4. Moderate (MDT)
5. High (HiGH)

There. Now you have an easy to understand 1-5 scale, just like the hurricane scale, just like the Fujita scale. Simply add the numbers to the text, since it seems like they really want to keep it. Solves the "weather communications community" issue, that only understands text, and the rest of the world, that understands numerical scales.


Most of the NWS hazard products regarding severe weather are at least, in part backed up by the SPC. These NWS products in turn, make their way into more accesible media feeds fit for public consumption.

SPC must also assign a probability to the type of severe weather event (wind, hail, tornado). A simple 1-5 scale may fall short in that requirement.

As already stated by others, most of the populace does not rely on the technical discussions of severe weather risks published by the SPC.

I think the SPC could no longer accept an EF 2 on a SLGT risk day, lol! So a change was needed-just not a complete makeover. It works for me. Your results may vary.
@ Brian, if u r still on... did u post something about the earthquakes?

Edit: NVR mind...
Quoting 150. hurricanes2018:
flooding in east haven,conn today u comment this picture on here to


You change your icon so much, you are going to use up your yearly allowance of them.
Quoting beell:
Deja Vu all over again, and again regarding surface synoptics and severe weather this week. Lee low, dryline, warm front. A strong cap all three days.


Valid 12Z Tuesday, 04/01


Valid 12Z Wednesday, 04/02


Valid 12Z Thursday, 04/03

That's good. Keep that cap all the way to Alabama and we'll just get some more rain and not tornadoes.
Quoting 167. beell:
Deja Vu all over again, and again regarding surface synoptics and severe weather this week. Lee low, dryline, warm front. A strong cap all three days.


Valid 12Z Tuesday, 04/01


Valid 12Z Wednesday, 04/02


Valid 12Z Thursday, 04/03


Mother Nature wants to wait for the new SPC charts before doing anymore severe weather?
Looks like the storm line faded before any rain got to the SE Bahamas / TCI....



It's still hanging around down there... and looks like the Oriente part of Cuba got some serious wx this after- noon.

I'm more or less out for the evening... may catch the second part of the night shift later on...
177. beell
Quoting 174. sar2401:

That's good. Keep that cap all the way to Alabama and we'll just get some more rain and not tornadoes.


Sooner or later, the trough will eject out into the plains and the warm sector will advance east ahead of the cold front. Good chance for severe over Mississippi and at least northern Alabama. Although the greater tornado risk may migrate towards the Ohio Valley on Friday (TN, KY, IN, and OH).
You look mahvelous Washi!

179. beell
Quoting 175. Astrometeor:


Mother Nature wants to wait for the new SPC charts before doing anymore severe weather?


LOL, Astro. Mother Nature likes to watch the ECMWF and GFS battle over when the trough exits the Rockies. Both have trended slower over the last couple days.

But each day may be similar with an advancing dryline during the day, retreating in the evening. Wash, rinse, repeat.
Quoting 177. beell:


Sooner or later, the trough will eject out into the plains and the warm sector will advance east ahead of the cold front. Good chance for severe over Mississippi and at least northern Alabama. Although the greater tornado risk may migrate towards the Ohio Valley on Friday (TN, KY, IN, and OH).


Yay! TN! Finally, some action!

I mean...uh-oh...

;)
Quoting beell:


Most of the NWS hazard products regarding severe weather are at least, in part backed up by the SPC. These NWS products in turn, make their way into more accesible media feeds fit for public consumption.

SPC must also assign a probability to the type of severe weather event (wind, hail, tornado). A simple 1-5 scale may fall short in that requirement.

As already stated by others, most of the populace does not rely on the technical discussions of severe weather risks published by the SPC.

I think the SPC could no longer accept an EF 2 on a SLT risk day, lol! So a change was needed-just not a complete makeover. It works for me. Your results may vary.

Look at the Birmingham Hazardous Weather Outlook page. They use a 1-5 scale of confidence for various type of weather. Makes sense. Directly below that, there are pictures of the SPC outlooks, where the wording bears no relationship to the 1-5 scale being used by the local weather office. I realize I'm beating a dead horse here but, in most forms of communication, you want things the public looks at to reasonably match up if they are coming from two branches of the same business.
Quoting beell:


Sooner or later, the trough will eject out into the plains and the warm sector will advance east ahead of the cold front. Good chance for severe over Mississippi and at least northern Alabama. Although the greater tornado risk may migrate towards the Ohio Valley on Friday (TN, KY, IN, and OH).

It certainly looks, at this point in time, that trough is going to be too far north to be a threat in SE Alabama. Some strong storms, maybe, but I doubt (hope) we'll see anything worse. We are long overdue for severe weather. Our last tornado was in April, 2012, and that can't last forever. As usual, the threat looks greatest in Dixie Alley, from Tuscaloosa NE to Huntsville.
Quoting 166. washingtonian115:
Lol Dak I'm not a kid no more.My old aching body and the bottle of advil have proved that.I'll have to have on a hat though I just got my hair done and refuse to have it ruined (Nature usually wins during the summer thanks to humidity).

P.S This isn't the first time someone has mistaken me for a kid.,It's nice to know I still have a young spirit.


I was more talking about your kids -- but I always thought you were somewhere in your 20s.
184. beell
Quoting 181. sar2401:

Look at the Birmingham Hazardous Weather Outlook page. They use a 1-5 scale of confidence for various type of weather. Makes sense. Directly below that, there are pictures of the SPC outlooks, where the wording bears no relationship to the 1-5 scale being used by the local weather office. I realize I'm beating a dead horse here but, in most forms of communication, you want things the public looks at to reasonably match up if they are coming from two branches of the same business.


That's a great product, sar. But...the inconsistencies come from the local NWS WFO's, not the SPC.

Not everyone (NWS) does it like Birmingham.
There is a very good chance that it will Rain Tues-Weds in SoCal and it appears that it will be a good rain maker. They are saying .25-1.0" for the Inland Empire(my area)and seeing as I got .01-.05 last storm, this will be like a cloudburst.
Time will tell. Today hit 74.0F, forecast at the Airport was 72F.
.
187. beell
There ya' go, sar...
Birmingham
Quoting 185. PedleyCA:
There is a very good chance that it will Rain Tues-Weds in SoCal and it appears that it will be a good rain maker. They are saying .25-1.0" for the Inland Empire(my area)and seeing as I got .01-.05 last storm, this will be like a cloudburst.
Time will tell. Today hit 74.0F, forecast at the Airport was 72F.


I hope you get it.
Quoting 182. sar2401:

It certainly looks, at this point in time, that trough is going to be too far north to be a threat in SE Alabama. Some strong storms, maybe, but I doubt (hope) we'll see anything worse. We are long overdue for severe weather. Our last tornado was in April, 2012, and that can't last forever. As usual, the threat looks greatest in Dixie Alley, from Tuscaloosa NE to Huntsville.


Yeah.

A few days ago models were showing a potentially significant severe weather event in your area as the trough was way further south.

Dodged another bullet!
Quoting 185. PedleyCA:
There is a very good chance that it will Rain Tues-Weds in SoCal and it appears that it will be a good rain maker. They are saying .25-1.0" for the Inland Empire(my area)and seeing as I got .01-.05 last storm, this will be like a cloudburst.
Time will tell. Today hit 74.0F, forecast at the Airport was 72F.


For me in Oxnard, we will be lucky to get a quarter inch, according to the latest discussion. I hope for more.
3 people have been killed today in York and Lancaster Counties, Pennsylvania due to weather related crashes. A 52yr old woman, another unknown person and an 11yr old girl. Several other people are in critical condition. :( I may usually love snow, but sometimes I really hate it and this is one of those times.

EDIT: I added due to weather related crashes in case the original post was unclear.
192. beell
Quoting 189. Thrawst:


Yeah.

A few days ago models were showing a potentially significant severe weather event in your area as the trough was way further south.

Dodged another bullet!


Still possibly 5 days out. Wouldn't plan the picnic yet.
Rain mixing with snow now.
Wow. York, PA got 3.78" of rain today.
east haven got 4.56 inches of rain today
Quoting 190. oxnardprof:


For me in Oxnard, we will be lucky to get a quarter inch, according to the latest discussion. I hope for more.


I see what you mean. You would think it would be first come, first served. Maybe you will get lucky.
Quoting beell:


Still possibly 5 days out. Wouldn't plan the picnic yet.

Indeed. It's not as bad as Florida, but severe weather forecasts here are sometimes accompanied by "Duck!". We've had days it was supposed to be bad and saw nary a drop of rain and others that didn't even qualify as the (soon to be obsolete) "See Text" and walloped us good. As much as I hassle the boys in Birmingham, I'd really hate to be a forecaster here. I can't think of very many states where weather conditions can vary as much in less than a 200 mile range. We were packing up our radios and other gear getting ready to head north the night of the April, 20011 outbreak, breathing a sigh of relief that we had dodged the bullet then. At 8:30 in the evening, literally out of nowhere, a cell formed that spawned an EF3 in less than 10 minutes just miles from us. Another 10 minutes and it was all over. I'm never not nervous until I see a clear sky again.
Quoting Doppler22:
3 people have been killed today in York and Lancaster Counties, Pennsylvania due to weather related crashes. A 52yr old woman, another unknown person and an 11yr old girl. Several other people are in critical condition. :( I may usually love snow, but sometimes I really hate it and this is one of those times.

EDIT: I added due to weather related crashes in case the original post was unclear.

Sorry to hear that. No matter what part of the country I've been in, people will just not slow down when it rains. It seems the increase in SUV's has made that worse, as if they're immune because they have all wheel drive. We have a highway that's high crowned by all the log trucks that use it, and you'll hydroplane on that road if you're going over 40 in any kind of rain. It's rare I travel that road in the rain and don't see at least one vehicle spun out.
Quoting Thrawst:


Yeah.

A few days ago models were showing a potentially significant severe weather event in your area as the trough was way further south.

Dodged another bullet!

As beell wrote, we'll have to wait a few days to find out, but it looks good right now. I've seen far too many severe storms in my many years on earth to get depressed if we miss one.
Quoting 197. sar2401:

Indeed. It's not as bad as Florida, but severe weather forecasts here are sometimes accompanied by "Duck!". We've had days it was supposed to be bad and saw nary a drop of rain and others that didn't even qualify as the (soon to be obsolete) "See Text" and walloped us good. As much as I hassle the boys in Birmingham, I'd really hate to be a forecaster here. I can't think of very many states where weather conditions can vary as much in less than a 200 mile range. We were packing up our radios and other gear getting ready to head north the night of the April, 20011 outbreak, breathing a sigh of relief that we had dodged the bullet then. At 8:30 in the evening, literally out of nowhere, a cell formed that spawned an EF3 in less than 10 minutes just miles from us. Another 10 minutes and it was all over. I'm never not nervous until I see a clear sky again.


Mother has told me time and time again that the 1998 Nashville tornado was nailed within an hour by the meteorologists working at the time...the night before.

As a result, not a single life was lost. Unless you count the Vanderbilt student that took shelter beneath a tree and was struck by lightning.

Most times we generally see what is forecasted. There are more busts than surprises, though. 4/27/11 was a bust (from my view). We were on the edge of the moderate risk, and we didn't see any storms that day I don't think. I did get to see a live shot of Tuscaloosa being ripped to shreds, though. :-)
It looks like tomorrow may be bad. I am watching the natives batten down the hatches. Fargo schools closed. 45 to 50 mph winds and blowing snow. Depending how for south the storm moves, Fargo can expect 6-12 inches of snow.

Hard to believe, this afternoon was shirt sleeve weather.

Cheers
Qazulight
Time to Call it a Night - Stay Safe - Stay Warm - "Night"
Quoting beell:
There ya' go, sar...
Birmingham

I love that song! Actually, I like almost every Randy Newman song. He's one of the worst singers ever, but also one of the best. Strange guy. :-)
Quoting PedleyCA:
Time to Call it a Night - Stay Safe - Stay Warm - "Night"

GN, Ped. Get wet. :-)
Quoting beell:


That's a great product, sar. But...the inconsistencies come from the local NWS WFO's, not the SPC.

Not everyone (NWS) does it like Birmingham.

Which brings up another rant - why don't all WFO's do it the same? But I'll save that for another night. :-)
Winter Storm Xenia: How Much Snow Ahead?
Quoting 205. sar2401:

Which brings up another rant - why don't all WFO's do it the same? But I'll save that for another night. :-)


This. I love that confidence graphic that yours puts out in its Hazardous Weather Outlook. Mine should do it as well, its a great tool. Easy to read than scanning technical info.

I'm used to how Nashville's page is all neat and orderly (to me at least). Nashville!

Most of the rest in the nation look like a jumbled mess of code, especially the NE.

And, a lot of them are switching to the new website, check out Philly. Personally, I despite it. No real sense of order, looks too similar to Windows 8.
Quoting Astrometeor:


Mother has told me time and time again that the 1998 Nashville tornado was nailed within an hour by the meteorologists working at the time...the night before.

As a result, not a single life was lost. Unless you count the Vanderbilt student that took shelter beneath a tree and was struck by lightning.

Most times we generally see what is forecasted. There are more busts than surprises, though. 4/27/11 was a bust (from my view). We were on the edge of the moderate risk, and we didn't see any storms that day I don't think. I did get to see a live shot of Tuscaloosa being ripped to shreds, though. :-)

You're lucky to be living relatively closer to the true "middle of the East", so to speak. Most of the time, the track of systems is pretty consistent through Nashville, and you're far enough away from any large bodies of water that the influences are all Continental. I'm only 120 miles from the Gulf and kind off the beaten track for storms unless it takes a far southern track. Anything coming from the Plains is more likely to head for you than me. Sometimes, however, when the Gulf is warm, and we get a good southerly flow, everything can change, and fronts that look like nothing suddenly blow up into bad squall lines. OTOH, I'll often look at squall lines with a history of tornadoes coming from Mississippi that look bad and completely fizzle when it gets here. If there's too much convection in the Panhandles, we can get completely cut off from any moisture. Some of these things occur over a couple hours period, even less. Then we had this winter, where Montgomery got an inch of snow and we got a half-inch of ice and two inches of snow. Except for being able to say it's going to be cold, hot, or there's a chance of storms, anything more specific and my reputation as the neighborhood forecaster really suffers. :-)
Quoting 18. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I'm telling you this is the year man. I hope my instincts are wrong, but you know what they say go with the first choice and well one just has to go back to 1992 to see what can happen during an El Nino.


1992 was notable for cold in summer in many regions esp at high latitudes. The May 1991 Mt Pinatubo eruption's dust and sulfates ejected into the stratosphere reduced insolation for two years following with 1992 the peak chilling year. It's a prime example of what a volcanic eruption can do short term.
Blizzard potential: The combination of high pressure over the Canadian Prairies and moderately strong low pressure tracking from the Corn Belt to the Great Lakes will likely produce blizzard or near-blizzard conditions in parts of the Dakotas, southeast Montana, and western and northern Minnesota Monday and Monday night, possibly into early Tuesday.
Quoting 18. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I'm telling you this is the year man. I hope my instincts are wrong, but you know what they say go with the first choice and well one just has to go back to 1992 to see what can happen during an El Nino.
Wasn't it "the year" in 2009? No wait, that was El Nino, so we gave up. How about 2010? Strong La Nina and a June (almost) major hurricane? Wait, nah. Trough. How about 2011? Trough. 2012 is up for interpretation because of Sandy, but otherwise trough and shear. 2013? Well...
Quoting 204. sar2401:

GN, Ped. Get wet. :-)


wat...

Quoting 212. Jedkins01:


wat...
I am not above a "That's what she said joke".

I'm not.
Quoting Astrometeor:


This. I love that confidence graphic that yours puts out in its Hazardous Weather Outlook. Mine should do it as well, its a great tool. Easy to read than scanning technical info.

I'm used to how Nashville's page is all neat and orderly (to me at least). Nashville!

Most of the rest in the nation look like a jumbled mess of code, especially the NE.

And, a lot of them are switching to the new website, check out Philly. Personally, I despite it. No real sense of order, looks too similar to Windows 8.

So what exactly does the red on the 4-7 day mean? Maybe, kinda, could be bad...? I wouldn't have a clue looking at that HWO. I have to see that little "help" line and click on it to find out. At least have a big "legends" button or something. And Philly's headline is -
Weather Briefing and Other Information for Emergency Managers
Working Together To Save Lives

So, whoa, did I get to the wrong page...where's the one for the public...oh, this is the one for the public. Lots of cool icons though.

One more thought before I get off this for the night. Imagine if you went to the Walmart web site and it was somewhat to completely different for each store. Do you think maybe there's a reason why Walmart doesn't do that?
Quoting KoritheMan:

I am not above a "That's what she said joke".

I'm not.

That's what she said...;-)
Quoting Jedkins01:


wat...

I mean, like I hope it rains. I probably could have worded that better. :-)
Quoting KoritheMan:
Wasn't it "the year" in 2009? No wait, that was El Nino, so we gave up. How about 2010? Strong La Nina and a June (almost) major hurricane? Wait, nah. Trough. How about 2011? Trough. 2012 is up for interpretation because of Sandy, but otherwise trough and shear. 2013? Well...

Yes, it's been "THE YEAR" for quite a while now. I was thinking that we have 16 and 17 year olds here who are not old enough to really remember the last big hurricane season we had...actually, 19 or 20, depending on when they developed an interest in weather. Certainly not old enough to have watched it live and remember it. That's really quite an amazing thing when you think about it.
Quoting 171. beell:


Most of the NWS hazard products regarding severe weather are at least, in part backed up by the SPC. These NWS products in turn, make their way into more accesible media feeds fit for public consumption.

SPC must also assign a probability to the type of severe weather event (wind, hail, tornado). A simple 1-5 scale may fall short in that requirement.

As already stated by others, most of the populace does not rely on the technical discussions of severe weather risks published by the SPC.

I think the SPC could no longer accept an EF 2 on a SLGT risk day, lol! So a change was needed-just not a complete makeover. It works for me. Your results may vary.



That depends on where you live.

Traditional tornado alley, they will round up to the next highest risk for marginal events, the farther you get away from where the SPC is centered, its harder to see anything more than a slight risk unless its going to be almost certainly a day of death and destruction.

Heck if the SPC ever issues anything more than a slight risk in Florida, I'm expecting one of the worst outbreaks in U.S. history, not just state history, and many dead.
Quoting 214. sar2401:

So what exactly does the red on the 4-7 day mean? Maybe, kinda, could be bad...? I wouldn't have a clue looking at that HWO. I have to see that little "help" line and click on it to find out. At least have a big "legends" button or something.


I just realized that's there, lol. I've never clicked on half of the things listed in the bar. Hmm...maybe I should.

Yeah, Walmart is nice for keeping things pretty standard and not up to some creative store manager who might have a passion for conceptual ideas with my shopping items.
Quoting 216. sar2401:

I mean, like I hope it rains. I probably could have worded that better. :-)


Well at first I just didn't realize the context, I really did think it was a weather non-related innuendo for a minute, lol.
Quoting 217. sar2401:

Yes, it's been "THE YEAR" for quite a while now. I was thinking that we have 16 and 17 year olds here who are not old enough to really remember the last big hurricane season we had...actually, 19 or 20, depending on when they developed an interest in weather. Certainly not old enough to have watched it live and remember it. That's really quite an amazing thing when you think about it.
Isidore sparked my weather interest when it hit in 2002; I was outside with my dad (who also has an interest in weather) and I was all like "OMG THIS IS SO COOL DAD". Good times.

Fast forward a bit and I remember 2004 and 2005 quite well.

EDIT to add: the only thing I regret is that I lacked actual meteorological knowledge during those years. I watched the TWC tropical updates all the time, especially during 2005, but I didn't know enough to carve my own forecasts. Would have made it better.
Quoting 206. severeweatherman15:
Winter Storm Xenia: How Much Snow Ahead?
30 inches of snow!!
Quoting 221. KoritheMan:
Isidore sparked my weather interest when it hit in 2002; I was outside with my dad (who also has an interest in weather) and I was all like "OMG THIS IS SO COOL DAD". Good times.

Fast forward a bit and I remember 2004 and 2005 quite well.

EDIT to add: the only thing I regret is that I lacked actual meteorological knowledge during those years. I watched the TWC tropical updates all the time, especially during 2005, but I didn't know enough to carve my own forecasts. Would have made it better.


Kori in 2005: "I predict Cat. 6 with sustained winds of 200 mph, 50/50 chance for flying sharks, and a good chance of multi-vortex F4s rotating about within the landfalling storm known as TS Bret (TS???, lol NHC)."
Quoting 222. iloveweather15:
30 inches of snow!!
very funny both s/n end with 15!!

Quoting 223. Astrometeor:


Kori in 2005: "I predict Cat. 6 with sustained winds of 200 mph, 50/50 chance for flying sharks, and a good chance of multi-vortex F4s rotating about within the landfalling storm known as TS Bret (TS???, lol NHC)."
I remembering jumping on a fading convective burst and declared Gamma dead. True story.

Quoting 206. severeweatherman15:
Winter Storm Xenia: How Much Snow Ahead?

Quoting 226. KoritheMan:




Hey, that doesn't look *anything* like Lucy Lawless.

Quoting 227. nonblanche:


Hey, that doesn't look *anything* like Lucy Lawless.
That was my aunt's Xenia of choice.

I like Famke Jannsen better. :]
Not weather related but...
BREAKING: North and South Korea exchanged fire across maritime border, S.Korea's semi-official Yonhap news agency said.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Isidore sparked my weather interest when it hit in 2002; I was outside with my dad (who also has an interest in weather) and I was all like "OMG THIS IS SO COOL DAD". Good times.

Fast forward a bit and I remember 2004 and 2005 quite well.

EDIT to add: the only thing I regret is that I lacked actual meteorological knowledge during those years. I watched the TWC tropical updates all the time, especially during 2005, but I didn't know enough to carve my own forecasts. Would have made it better.

There are a lot of people in your age range who , even if they remember watching the hurricanes in 2004-2005, really hadn't a developed the interest in weather to seek out a place like this. After thinking tonight we are going on year 10 of seasons completely unlike those, and counting backwards, how many young people just don't know much about a season where every two weeks, here comes another one. I can't help but think that we'll have a more active season this year than last, since last year was about as bad as we've had since 2004-2005, but that's more a gambler's fallacy than it is anything scientific. The old "If I sit here long enough, this machine is bound to hit", which is true, but "long enough" can be a very long time. I was very surprised at how cold it was at the beach last week, and how cold the water at Destin was. I realize that's not much of an indicator, but I've been going to the beach for a while in winter, and this is the only time I couldn't wait to get back to the condo and warm up. :-)
Quoting 217. sar2401:

Yes, it's been "THE YEAR" for quite a while now. I was thinking that we have 16 and 17 year olds here who are not old enough to really remember the last big hurricane season we had...actually, 19 or 20, depending on when they developed an interest in weather. Certainly not old enough to have watched it live and remember it. That's really quite an amazing thing when you think about it.


Well, a lot of us were around for 2008, which I would call our last big year. I actually joined the blog in the midst of Hurricane Gustav and was still just an embryo handle during Ike. Definitely haven't had as much of an excitement level on the blog since those days. Even the posting rates during Irene and Sandy couldn't compare to the some 5000 comments Dr. Masters was getting on some of his Ike entries.
The next significant threat of severe weather will be Wednesday and Thursday as the next storm system ejects into the Plains states.Tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be a possibility from the mid-week system, which coincides with the traditional uptick in severe weather activity across the central and south-central U.S. in early April. here we go again round two coming soon
Quoting 229. Doppler22:
Not weather related but...
BREAKING: North and South Korea exchanged fire across maritime border, S.Korea's semi-official Yonhap news agency said.


I did read earlier tonight that NoKo had a "no sailing zone" in place as they were going to be doing some shooting exercises.
Quoting Jedkins01:



That depends on where you live.

Traditional tornado alley, they will round up to the next highest risk for marginal events, the farther you get away from where the SPC is centered, its harder to see anything more than a slight risk unless its going to be almost certainly a day of death and destruction.

Heck if the SPC ever issues anything more than a slight risk in Florida, I'm expecting one of the worst outbreaks in U.S. history, not just state history, and many dead.

The SPC does a pretty good job of picking out severe events for central Florida but you're right, I rarely remember a greater than 5% probability for tornadoes. Maybe it's because the vast majority will always be EFo's or EF1's. It's a lot easier to predict a tornado in Mississippi has a chance of being an EF2 or above because they are so relatively common. Maybe Florida needs its own scale, where "moderate" mean the risk of just about any tornado.
Quoting 217. sar2401:

Yes, it's been "THE YEAR" for quite a while now. I was thinking that we have 16 and 17 year olds here who are not old enough to really remember the last big hurricane season we had...actually, 19 or 20, depending on when they developed an interest in weather. Certainly not old enough to have watched it live and remember it. That's really quite an amazing thing when you think about it.


Very true. Starting in 2006, it's been wind shear, dry air, SAL, troughs (troughs are certainly nothing new) and mysterious failures for tropical cyclones to develop/intensify, despite apparently favorable conditions. This is the case in the Atlantic basin, at least.

Water temperatures are of course prerequisite for development and strengthening, but the last 8 years have shown that in the main development region during the peak season, it takes more than warm water for a cyclone to take off.
Quoting 233. nonblanche:


I did read earlier tonight that NoKo had a "no sailing zone" in place as they were going to be doing some shooting exercises.

Some of their shots hit in South Korean Waters so South Korea retaliated and the North responded. Residents of a nearby island have been taken to shelters
I don't remember much about hurricanes, most of my knowledge has come from the last two years from here.

2004 doesn't register at all. 2005, only Katrina and something about a traffic jam and Rita. 2008...there was a period when the local gas shot to above $4...strange.

2010, I remember Alex and people on TWC seemed excited, but I was so confused, it didn't seem that exciting. I mean, seriously, when has there ever been a 'cane to hit TN? Yeah...bad geography for me.

The spring of 2006 happened yesterday, I even have some ghosty dreams of '98...which my mind probably made up.

I didn't know about 9/11 until a couple years later...even though I had already begun to have memories at the time...

Now I'm glad to be here, introduced by a former science teacher.

Edit: Night everyone.
Quoting 230. sar2401:

There are a lot of people in your age range who , even if they remember watching the hurricanes in 2004-2005, really hadn't a developed the interest in weather to seek out a place like this. After thinking tonight we are going on year 10 of seasons completely unlike those, and counting backwards, how many young people just don't know much about a season where every two weeks, here comes another one. I can't help but think that we'll have a more active season this year than last, since last year was about as bad as we've had since 2004-2005, but that's more a gambler's fallacy than it is anything scientific. The old "If I sit here long enough, this machine is bound to hit", which is true, but "long enough" can be a very long time. I was very surprised at how cold it was at the beach last week, and how cold the water at Destin was. I realize that's not much of an indicator, but I've been going to the beach for a while in winter, and this is the only time I couldn't wait to get back to the condo and warm up. :-)
It's interesting you note the pattern, because the cold air in the southern United States is an indication that we have been underneath a trough rather than a ridge. While sitting underneath either may not be situationally favorable for US hurricane landfalls, I would say that on average a trough over the southern US is more conducive to westward-moving hurricanes approaching the US coastline.

Here are the 500 mb geopotential height anomalies for the January 1 through March 25 period:







By no means is this a perfect pattern, but it puts the east coast at a precarious risk from passing tropical cyclones, particularly those coming north of the Caribbean. If the longwave pattern retrogrades just a little bit westward in the coming months, the pattern for landfalls will become much more perilous.

Gray/Klotzbach mentioned in one of their publications a few years ago that there is a medium positive correlation between spring 500 mb heights along the eastern United States and Atlantic Canada persisting into the summer. I have not found this correlation to generally hold, but that's admittedly based only on the last few years.

I have no interest in long-range forecasting, especially on magnitudes demanded by seasonal analogs. Just showing you.
Quoting 229. Doppler22:
Not weather related but...
BREAKING: North and South Korea exchanged fire across maritime border, S.Korea's semi-official Yonhap news agency said.





i finally get a chance to use this
I'm young enough to never have tracked a Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic before. Nor have I seen a major hurricane landfall on the United States.
Quoting wxgeek723:


Well, a lot of us were around for 2008, which I would call our last big year. I actually joined the blog in the midst of Hurricane Gustav and was still just an embryo handle during Ike. Definitely haven't had as much of an excitement level on the blog since those days. Even the posting rates during Irene and Sandy couldn't compare to the some 5000 comments Dr. Masters was getting on some of his Ike entries.

Yeah, 2008 was a decent year with both Ike and Gustav, although it wasn't much of a season after Ike. Still, even that's now going on 6 years of relative inactivity. This is already an unprecedented stretch with no majors making landfall in the US, and the history is even big ones like Ike weakened before landfall. It's hard to imagine this stretch can continue but, if we have a combination of a strong El Nino and conditions otherwise similar to last year, it every well may.
Quoting 240. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm young enough to never have tracked a Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic before. Nor have I seen a major hurricane landfall on the United States.


i watched Katrina and most of 2005 on the news when i was 10... i havent tracked anything, yet!
Quoting 241. sar2401:

Yeah, 2008 was a decent year with both Ike and Gustav, although it wasn't much of a season after Ike. Still, even that's now going on 6 years of relative inactivity. This is already an unprecedented stretch with no majors making landfall in the US, and the history is even big ones like Ike weakened before landfall. It's hard to imagine this stretch can continue but, if we have a combination of a strong El Nino and conditions otherwise similar to last year, it every well may.


Irene and Sandy were pretty bad though, so theres still a lot of storm damage
Quoting Astrometeor:
I don't remember much about hurricanes, most of my knowledge has come from the last two years from here.

2004 doesn't register at all. 2005, only Katrina and something about a traffic jam and Rita. 2008...there was a period when the local gas shot to above $4...strange.

2010, I remember Alex and people on TWC seemed excited, but I was so confused, it didn't seem that exciting. I mean, seriously, when has there ever been a 'cane to hit TN? Yeah...bad geography for me.

The spring of 2006 happened yesterday, I even have some ghosty dreams of '98...which my mind probably made up.

I didn't know about 9/11 until a couple years later...even though I had already begun to have memories at the time...

Now I'm glad to be here, introduced by a former science teacher.

Edit: Night everyone.

GN, Astro. Every generation's time will come as will yours.
Quoting 241. sar2401:

Yeah, 2008 was a decent year with both Ike and Gustav, although it wasn't much of a season after Ike. Still, even that's now going on 6 years of relative inactivity. This is already an unprecedented stretch with no majors making landfall in the US, and the history is even big ones like Ike weakened before landfall. It's hard to imagine this stretch can continue but, if we have a combination of a strong El Nino and conditions otherwise similar to last year, it every well may.


Ike was rebounding when it made landfall.

Relative to peak intensity, yeah, but...
Quoting 243. nwobilderburg:


Irene and Sandy were pretty bad though, so theres still a lot of storm damage


The SSHS needs a serious refinement.
update on severe weather!! new weather maps are up
Quoting nwobilderburg:


Irene and Sandy were pretty bad though, so theres still a lot of storm damage

Yes, there was, although it would have been less from Sandy if the East Coast had learned more lessons from Irene.
anytime a hurricane makes a more or less direct hit on the East Coast, especially New York and New Jersey, there's going to be a lot of damage because the area is so densely populated and there is so much high value property there. The rains that accompany these storms always overwhelm the drainage systems in the New England area because they just aren't geologically prepared to handle tropical rainfall amounts. I'm hoping (but not holding my breath) that these two storms will at least change beachfront zoning and improve building codes.
Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy was the last Major Storm that sparked a lot of interest in Meteorology in the United States.  In fact, the build-up to Sandy had waaaaaaaaaaaaay more press and publication than any of the 2004-2005 storms.  Simply because of how huge and weird the storm was + the amount of time we KNEW where the storm was going to hit. 

Even last year, the severe lack of storms was a big attraction for this site.  I remember seeing a ton of new faces here wondering why there was nothing going on in the hurricane season.  Most of those faces were probably people that were introduced to awesome weather events in 2012 via Sandy.  Most were probably even North Easterners. 

Other than Sandy and Katrina, I'd say that the Ivan/Charley double whammy were the most impactful storms in recent memory...in terms of attracting people to the meteorology world. 

Quoting 249. RyanSperrey:
Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy was the last Major Storm that sparked a lot of interest in Meteorology in the United States.  In fact, the build-up to Sandy had waaaaaaaaaaaaay more press and publication than any of the 2004-2005 storms.  Simply because of how huge and weird the storm was + the amount of time we KNEW where the storm was going to hit. 

Even last year, the severe lack of storms was a big attraction for this site.  I remember seeing a ton of new faces here wondering why there was nothing going on in the hurricane season.  Most of those faces were probably people that were introduced to awesome weather events in 2012 via Sandy.  Most were probably even North Easterners. 

Other than Sandy and Katrina, I'd say that the Ivan/Charley double whammy were the most impactful storms in recent memory...in terms of attracting people to the meteorology world. 
I still say Isidore and Lili should qualify, but that's probably because I'm biased to those storms, living in the same areas they impacted.

Lili scared us ****less for awhile, though.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Ike was rebounding when it made landfall.

Relative to peak intensity, yeah, but...

That's what I mean. When we've had this long stretch, we get into shoulda, coulda, woulda with storms. Hurricane Ophelia in 2005 hung around for what seemed like forever, flirted with cat 3 for a little while, and fluctuated between a cat 1 and TS several times while never actually made landfall until Nova Scotia, and still was pretty healthy as an extratropical storm when it went over Newfoundland. IN any other season, Ophelia would have been a well remembered hurricane. In 2005, it was a footnote. That's what happens when it's really an active season. :-)
Quoting nwobilderburg:





i finally get a chance to use this

The North Koreans are holding live fire naval drills near the DMZ hoping to provoke the South Koreans. No shots have been exchanged.

Edit: It appears the South Koreans are now firing shells of their own into the ocean off the DMZ. Neither side is firing at specific targets, just killing a few fish. Just the usual fun and games over there.
Quoting 240. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm young enough to never have tracked a Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic before. Nor have I seen a major hurricane landfall on the United States.
I was pretty young during 2003-2005 seasons, but I still remember tracking storms like Isabel, Charley, Frances, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma by watching Weather Channel. I'll never forget what I was doing the morning Katrina made her landfall and what kind of breakfast my mom cooked up for me (it was grits) so I can eat and watch Weather Channel. Of course I've never seriously tracked a Category 5 on computer with all of those datas or major hurricane landfalling in USA yet.
Hailstorm in Australia on Sunday, 30 March, 2014 at 11:43 (11:43 AM) UTC.
Description
Golf-ball sized hail has smashed parts of Sydney's west as two fast moving severe thunderstorm cells swept northeast across the city. The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) on Sunday night issued a severe thunderstorm warning for Sydney, the Blue Mountains, the Hawkesbury and Central Coast, advising people to prepare for large hailstones and heavy rainfall. The cell is "extremely quickly moving," rumbling across the greater Sydney area at between 60-80 km/h, a BOM spokesman told AAP. "Severe thunderstorms were detected on weather radar near Parramatta, Katoomba and Richmond. These thunderstorms are moving towards the north," the BOM's warning, issued at 8.20 pm (AEDT), says. "Large hailstones and heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding are likely." In 30 minutes 35mm of rain fell at Box Hill and the largest downpour was recorded at Wilmot, where 46mm came down in about the same time. At Erskine Park 20mm reportedly fell in 10 minutes. The storm is expected to pass by midnight on Sunday. No storms are expected around Sydney on Monday but the BOM is predicting some very light showers. Roofing on the Blue Mountains hospital and the Katoomba sports and aquatic centre collapsed during the storm but no one was hurt, NSW Fire and Rescue Superintendent Paul Johnstone said. Evacuation wasn't necessary but four fire crews were sent to the hospital to help relocate ten patients. No one was at the swimming centre. Fire & Rescue NSW received about 50 calls for help.
Quoting 230. sar2401:

There are a lot of people in your age range who , even if they remember watching the hurricanes in 2004-2005, really hadn't a developed the interest in weather to seek out a place like this. After thinking tonight we are going on year 10 of seasons completely unlike those, and counting backwards, how many young people just don't know much about a season where every two weeks, here comes another one. I can't help but think that we'll have a more active season this year than last, since last year was about as bad as we've had since 2004-2005, but that's more a gambler's fallacy than it is anything scientific. The old "If I sit here long enough, this machine is bound to hit", which is true, but "long enough" can be a very long time. I was very surprised at how cold it was at the beach last week, and how cold the water at Destin was. I realize that's not much of an indicator, but I've been going to the beach for a while in winter, and this is the only time I couldn't wait to get back to the condo and warm up. :-)
You'll be surprised Isabel was the first hurricane I tracked by watching Weather Channel when I was 8. Tracking Katrina on Weather Channel the whole time remain very clear in my memory (heck, I remember telling the class that Tropical Storm Katrina was just named off coast of Miami...). I'm 19 years old now entering my 12th hurricane season of tracking.
Forest / Wild Fire in KS USA on Monday, 31 March, 2014 at 03:27 (03:27 AM) UTC.
Description
A massive grass fire spreading approximately 1,500 acres damaged at least four homes and numerous other outbuildings northwest of Topeka on Sunday afternoon, but no injuries were reported, Shawnee County authorities said. The cause of the massive fire just south of Shawnee County State Park was unknown and under investigation, Silver Lake Fire Department Captain Graig Brummer said Sunday evening. The blaze, which traveled north and east at a quick rate of speed, was one of at least 20 grass fires reported Sunday in Shawnee County, a county dispatcher told The Topeka Capital-Journal. Authorities said the first reports of the large fire came out around 12:30 p.m. in the 5700 block of N.W. Humphrey, and it quickly spread north to N.W. 78th with Humphrey being the eastern border. The blaze went west as far as Hodges Road. Shawnee County Sheriff Herman Jones said one house was destroyed and at least three others had significant damage. Brummer said the outbuildings damaged or destroyed were still being counted but numbed at least a handful. No one was in the destroyed house on N.W. 66th that neighbors described as a newly remodeled vacant modular home. Brummer added he hadn’t seen a grass fire "quite to this extent," and it ranked on the "upper end" of fires he has dealt with. "(Authorities) were able evacuate as many of these homes as possible, therefore no injuries," Jones said, adding the strong winds crews battled had gusts up to an estimated 30 mph. "The quick response saved a lot of those structures. You just really got to be careful with these types of conditions." While firefighters were still dealing with the fire well into the afternoon, it was relatively under control when Jones gave his report around 3 p.m. "I got to say because of our quick response we were able to mitigate, or at least minimize what we have," Jones said. As of 5:30 p.m., Brummer said the majority of the fire was out and under control, but they were still working spot fires, doing cleanup work and collecting information. Crews were still on scene at 8 p.m. A cost estimate to the damage done wasn’t known Sunday night.
Quoting KoritheMan:
It's interesting you note the pattern, because the cold air in the southern United States is an indication that we have been underneath a trough rather than a ridge. While sitting underneath either may not be situationally favorable for US hurricane landfalls, I would say that on average a trough over the southern US is more conducive to westward-moving hurricanes approaching the US coastline.

Here are the 500 mb geopotential height anomalies for the January 1 through March 25 period:







By no means is this a perfect pattern, but it puts the east coast at a precarious risk from passing tropical cyclones, particularly those coming north of the Caribbean. If the longwave pattern retrogrades just a little bit westward in the coming months, the pattern for landfalls will become much more perilous.

Gray/Klotzbach mentioned in one of their publications a few years ago that there is a medium positive correlation between spring 500 mb heights along the eastern United States and Atlantic Canada persisting into the summer. I have not found this correlation to generally hold, but that's admittedly based only on the last few years.

I have no interest in long-range forecasting, especially on magnitudes demanded by seasonal analogs. Just showing you.

I have no interest in long range forecasting either, mainly because I think it's a bunch of bunk. I don't care how good Gray et al are as meteorologists, we just don't have the kind of tools to make those kinds of forecast with any precision until way later in the season. I do think the northern Gulf being so cold, and the anomalies on the chart means something. What they mean, I have no idea, bu the situation is unusual enough that it's going to lead to other unusual things. Once we start to learn how to connect the dots, it will all mean something. Right now, they are just data points open to speculation.
Quoting 257. sar2401:

I have no interest in long range forecasting either, mainly because I think it's a bunch of bunk. I don't care how good Gray et al are as meteorologists, we just don't have the kind of tools to make those kinds of forecast with any precision until way later in the season. I do think the northern Gulf being so cold, and the anomalies on the chart means something. What they mean, I have no idea, bu the situation is unusual enough that it's going to lead to other unusual things. Once we start to learn how to connect the dots, it will all mean something. Right now, they are just data points open to speculation.
I agree about them being bunk. Which is exactly what I meant.

As far as the unknowns, we DO know that wherever a trough exists, a ridge will exist downstream, enhanced by the trough. And vise versa.

That's why I suggested that a ridge over the southern United States is not all that conducive to US hurricane landfalls. Recall 2010, which had an exceptionally large semipermanent ridge situated over the southern United States for much of the summer, which steered otherwise dangerous US hurricanes smack dab into Mexico or Central America. The northerly flow on the backside of that ridge helped to enhance the persistent east coast trough that year.

We don't possess the knowledge base needed for long-range forecasting, particularly months in advance. But we know enough to know that troughs pump ridges, and ridges pump troughs. It's why you'll see storms like Danielle and Karl (2004) recurve east of 60W, while hurricanes situated west of there tend to continue moving toward the US at the same time. The pattern essentially becomes east coast ridge > central Atlantic trough > eastern Atlantic ridge.

The height anomalies I delineated above probably don't mean anything for the summer, but if the trough remained over the southern US, we would expect a downstream ridge over the western Atlantic and potentially US east coast.

We have knowledge of teleconnection.

Hellen Wind..

Quoting Bluestorm5:
You'll be surprised Isabel was the first hurricane I tracked by watching Weather Channel when I was 8. Tracking Katrina on Weather Channel the whole time remain very clear in my memory (heck, I remember telling the class that Tropical Storm Katrina was just named off coast of Miami...). I'm 19 years old now entering my 12th hurricane season of tracking.

You're quite unusual. Most 8 year olds don't spend much time watching the Weather Channel. :-) I'm trying to remember how young I was when I had a real interest in weather. Since I'm 68, that was a long time ago. I think I was about 10. I don't even remember what kicked it off, just something I seemed to develop a growing interest in. I built my own weather station when I was 11, and was tracking hurricanes on paper charts you'd buy from the weather bureau before the season when I was 12. I remember the 1958 season was a complete bust, but I learned how to use my grease pencil on the map's plastic overlay and calculate lat/long from the hourly updates I'd pick up on the hurricane net on shortwave. 1959 bought Gracie, the first cat 4 I tracked, and it survived long enough inland that it bought some flooding to the Cleveland area, where I grew up. I remember '58 and '59 as being hotter than blue blazes, with a lot of thunderstorms and some tornadoes, but it's all pretty hazy at this juncture. In my wildest, Buck Rogers type imagination, I never thought we'd have the tools we have today, with me being able to communicate instantly with people across the world, and getting real time updates on weather via a computer and satellites. My news on a hurricane's progress, other than my own tracking came from the newspaper that came the next day. In many ways, we live in the most wonderful times ever experienced by humans.
Quoting KoritheMan:
I agree about them being bunk. Which is exactly what I meant.

As far as the unknowns, we DO know that wherever a trough exists, a ridge will exist downstream, enhanced by the trough. And vise versa.

That's why I suggested that a ridge over the southern United States is not all that conducive to US hurricane landfalls. Recall 2010, which had an exceptionally large semipermanent ridge situated over the southern United States for much of the summer, which steered otherwise dangerous US hurricanes smack dab into Mexico or Central America. The northerly flow on the backside of that ridge helped to enhance the persistent east coast trough that year.

We don't possess the knowledge base needed for long-range forecasting, particularly months in advance. But we know enough to know that troughs pump ridges, and ridges pump troughs. It's why you'll see storms like Danielle and Karl (2004) recurve east of 60W, while hurricanes situated west of there tend to continue moving toward the US at the same time. The pattern essentially becomes east coast ridge > central Atlantic trough > eastern Atlantic ridge.

The height anomalies I delineated above probably don't mean anything for the summer, but if the trough remained over the southern US, we would expect a downstream ridge over the western Atlantic and potentially US east coast.

We have knowledge of teleconnection.

I agree about the ridge and trough locations being absolutely vital to landfall probabilities when a tropical cyclone forms and gets on the move. What has been extraordinary over the past nine years is how few tropical cyclones of any kind have affected the Gulf coast. Southeast agriculture depends on summer rains from tropical storms and, except for a few weak storms, there haven't been any. That's one of the reasons why Alabama was in such a long-term drought until recently. During that time, we've had both troughs and ridges, but their relative positions haven't resulted in anywhere near the usual tropical cyclone landfalls in the Gulf. There are some other teleconnections we don't understand happening, at least with what affects the Gulf. I will be pushing up daisies long before we get this figured out but, I hope, you're on whatever version of this blog is in 2060, telling newbies how all this works. :-)
Quoting Skyepony:

Hellen Wind..


Looks like it's starting to weaken a bit.


this thing fell apart quickly... thats good for Madagascar... though it seemed to be a pretty unpopulated region

Good morning. Another video of the storms yesterday in Hong Kong with excessive rains and hail.
This video however is quite hilarious :-)

------------------------------

Cannot find any news about impacts of Hellen on Madagascar yet.
@sar2401 post 260- I spent most of my free time watching the Weather Channel since I was 5-6 years old. I was very engrossed in it in fact. I don't watch TWC as much now as I used to but now I'm always on the computer, learning more about meteorology. I can better see how storms are going to affect us on the weather models.
Good Morning!...............



, what's going on!!!
Nice warm week. Actually a little too warm towards the end of the week.
7 Day for Fort Myers

Quoting 267. nwobilderburg:



, what's going on!!!


I think this is a glitch
Or something weird is going on with the weather

Cause 55 dbz storms are definitely not ripping through New Jersey right now
Quoting 269. nwobilderburg:


I think this is a glitch
Or something weird is going on with the weather

Cause 55 dbz storms are definitely not ripping through New Jersey right now

Looks like bright banding. As the snowflakes precipitate from the clouds, the air column they are in is warming as height decreases. As the snowflakes fall into a layer that is above freezing, they being to melt. For a period of time, especially if the temperature isn't much above 0C, the the snowflake will only partially melt. This leaves a smaller snowflake surrounded by melted water. A higher reflectivity is seen on radar as this snow/melt water combination reflects more of the radar beam back compared to a solid snowflake or a regular raindrop. Once the snowflake melts completely and there is now just liquid rain, the reflectivity looks normal again.

Very intense tropical cyclone Hellen struck Madagascar at about 00:00 GMT on 31 March.




Very intense tropical cyclone Hellen struck Madagascar at about 00:00 GMT on 31 March. Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point of landfall was near 15.3 S, 45.4 E. Hellen brought 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 240 km/h (149 mph). Wind gusts in the area may have been considerably higher.

According to the Saffir-Simpson damage scale the potential property damage and flooding from a storm of Hellen's strength (category 4) at landfall includes: Storm surge generally 4.0-5.5 metres (13-18 feet) above normal. Curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the centre of the storm. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 3 metres (10 feet) above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 10 km (6 miles). There is also the potential for flooding further inland due to heavy rain.
Mayotte will remember Hellen



The least we can say is 'Hellen' remain rooted in their minds. Meteorological phenomenon that nobody expected, has unleashed elements for nearly 72 hours, causing relatively minor damage compared to what would have been reported.

While prefectural authorities, according to information from the weather station France Pamandzi had reassured people Friday night, ensuring that the effects of what was still a tropical storm would be minimal, Hellen was a surprise to all levels. First, because it is strongly intensified unlike announced forecasts, taking over motorists on the roads Mayotte Saturday during the day. Indeed, with heavy rains and winds, fallen trees and mudslides have cut roads on the island, causing serious traffic problems. Prefecture had established the strong vigilance rain on Thursday evening and a departmental operational unit on Saturday to coordinate security and emergency. Orange alert has been declared in the evening, while the elements raged for the past few hours. rivers, swollen by water spouts - there were 239 mm of precipitation Mt samboro - are out of their beds, as M'tsangmouji, where an impressive video filmed by firefighters in action shows a car getting carried away by the waves, such a vulgar wooden board. wave intensified rapidly and waves up to 5 meters have caused serious damage in marinas Mamoudzou Dzaoudzi Hagnoudrou where skiffs broke away and smashed against the rocks or stranded. flights from Saturday afternoon and Sunday were canceled and postponed to Monday by the airlines. seaside, the passage between the Little and Great Earth, vessel traffic service of maritime transport (ST M) is disrupted since Saturday. For safety reasons and because of the winds and rains, schedules and amphidromous barges are not respected. Hellen, part of the Mozambican coast and strengthening in the warm waters of the canal became so intense tropical cyclone that he approached closer to our island in the night from Saturday to Sunday at around 3am. floods, falling trees, mudslides, power outages, collapse of the floor and wind gusts nearly 100 km / h so many side effects that have worried Mayotte , most remained locked safely home. Our island has escaped the worst, because the meteor was not expected arrival has caught the prefectural authorities. Intervention and emergency services were in great demand all over the island, including clear roads. Malicious people did not fail to take advantage of this disruption to commit burglary, as was the case in the capital. Voting in the second round of municipal elections was, however, maintained the general surprise. Hellen, continuing his race to Madagascar, moved away gradually during the day Sunday, leaving some visible marks of its passage, though, and can be welcomed, no casualties were reported. Sunday evening, the hurricane was located 200 km south of Mayotte and dangerously close to the west coast of Madagascar. The meteor should then initiate a turn south and head towards Juan de Nova. For today, the weather should be rainy and gloomy and storms are still awaited. Swell is still very strong and the greatest caution is required at sea

Translated from: Link
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
275. beell
Quoting 205. sar2401:

Which brings up another rant - why don't all WFO's do it the same? But I'll save that for another night. :-)


Another "but". I kinda like the individual freedom still remaining to the NWS forecasters at each office to develop their own style. Makes your local bunch more like friends and family. I am familiar with the style and tone of the boyz and girlz here at HGX. To the point of being able to recognize when a newb/intern is producing some of the text products.
Again, as an African, I must raise my concern with listers apparent lack of engagement with Hellen which will have a massive impact on an extremely poverty stricken part of the world. I have been fortunate enough to visit this area, sailing through the Mahajunga to Cap St Andre area which this cyclone has hit, in 1995. It is generally low lying with primarily subsistence farmers on the land. As it is the end of summer rice harvests will be hard hit as will anyone living on the flats, especially with storm surges of around 7m predicted in some bays, which are shallow and deep, a disaster for surge!
I doubt we will get much news out of this area - even the largest local town Mahajunga is a relative backwater. The area is severely degraded by slash and burn agriculture so flooding and silting will also add to the misery and woes.
I am unsure as to how we as outsiders can assist in this but I have put out calls here in SA to alert news services of the pending disaster in this area and motivating for support from the region.
It also looks like this storm will shift across the channel and dump a significant amount of rain in Mozambique where there is already heavy ground saturation. I hope it does not go too far inland as there are reportedly serious problems with the massive Kariba dam wall
https://www.zambianwatchdog.com/govt-official-iss ue-contradictory-statements-on-state-of-kariba-dam /comment-page-1/
http://harare24.com/index-id-news-zk-12168.html
https://www.newsday.co.zw/2014/03/20/kariba-dam-w all-faces-collapse/

So please people, I know there are many good networkers on this list - please motivate some assistance to these pending and unfolding crises in my particular backyard.
Thanks
Glenn