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Mighty 955 mb Nor'easter Pounds Canadian Maritime Provinces

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:50 PM GMT on March 27, 2014

The strongest Nor'easter of 2014 blasted Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia on Wednesday with wind gusts over 100 mph and up to a half meter (19.5") of snow, bringing travel to a standstill and causing power outages that affected about 17,000 customers in Nova Scotia. The mighty storm intensified rapidly on Wednesday afternoon, "bombing" to a central pressure by 2pm EDT of 955 mb--similar to the central pressure of a Category 3 hurricane. The storm's pressure fall of 45 mb in 24 hours is among the greatest on record for a Nor'easter (for comparison, the 1978 Cleveland Superbomb had a pressure drop of 43 millibars in 24 hours, also to 955 mb.) The La Have Bank buoy south of Halifax, Nova Scotia measured a pressure of 957 mb as the center of the storm passed nearby, along with significant wave heights of 29 feet. A wind gust of 129 mph was measured on Wednesday at the Bay of Fundy, and sustained winds of 89 mph with a gust to 115 mph was recorded between 6:30 - 7:30 pm EDT in Wreckhouse, Newfoundland, beating the previous strongest gust of 112 mph set in 2007 (Wreckhouse is named for the terrain-enhanced winds that often cause destruction.) Grand Étangon the Gulf of St Lawrence side of Cape Breton in Nova Scotia recorded top sustained winds of 70 mph, gusting to 102 mph. This location is susceptible to strong "Les Suêtes" winds in this type of setup--"Suêtes" is a dialectal corruption of French "sud-est," or "southeast". These southeasterly winds travel up over Cape Breton and a funneling effect intensifies them as they blow downslope toward the Gulf of St Lawrence. As a result, these gusts are not truly representative of the storm, but rather the storm plus local terrain effects. Environment Canada has a special "Les Suêtes Wind Warning", and issued it for Wednesday's storm.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image taken at approximately 2pm EDT Wednesday March 26, 2014, of the powerful Nor'easter affecting Canda's Maritime provinces. At the time, the storm had a central pressure of 955 mb, and was generating winds over the water of Category 1 hurricane strength (at least 74 mph.) Image credit: NASA.

Thanks go to TWC's Nick Wiltgen, Stu Ostro, Mike Seidel, and Matt Crowther for some of the stats on this storm.

Jeff Masters

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 500. Doppler22:

None of those storms sound threatening to me. Not even the infamous "I" storm.


Edouard, Gonzalo, and Omar all sound threatening to me.

Is there anything wrong in me hoping we get to Teddy this year? :P
Quoting Patrap:


OK Aussie, good to see you again.

I know you have family in PI, so I hope all there is well.


All is well mate. I am just wondering what an El Nino season will bring for the WPAC and our family in PH. Last year was a weak La Nina and they got STY Haiyan, what will this year bring, if only we all knew.
Quoting 395. CybrTeddy:


IMO, if we get another season with a cool-ENSO then it'll be another 14-2-0 year like last season or less.

For what it's worth, I think just based on probability alone 2014 will be a more interesting season than 2013 was. It'll certainly be a more quality year at least, we may actually get a major hurricane.

If we do get an El Nino, it looks like it'll be around until late-Winter and collapse into a La Nina event which is a classic setup a active and destructive season (1998, 2010 for example).


I totally agree. There have been El Nino years with major canes with a couple of examples such as 1992 Andrew and 1997 Erika.
Quoting 501. CybrTeddy:


Edouard, Gonzalo, and Omar all sound threatening to me.

Is there anything wrong in me hoping we get to Teddy this year? :P
Booo :).
Quoting 502. AussieStorm:


All is well mate. I am just wondering what an El Nino season will bring for the WPAC and our family in PH. Last year was a weak La Nina and they got STY Haiyan, what will this year bring, if only we all knew.


West Pac was Brutal last year, Haiyan was jus a terrible impactor fer sure.

Hopefully the Impacts wont be anything like last years.
The oceanic kelvin wave is now sporting a peak anomaly of 6.3C around 150m below the Pacific surface. How much higher is it going to go?

Quoting 506. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The oceanic kelvin wave is now sporting a peak anomaly of 6.3C around 150m below the Pacific surface. How much higher is it going to go?



That's not even its final form!
Quoting 501. CybrTeddy:


Edouard, Gonzalo, and Omar all sound threatening to me.

Is there anything wrong in me hoping we get to Teddy this year? :P


Getting to the "A" storm in Mid August like in 92' would cause some Jumper's fer sure.

C'mon Man, 94L looks promising, don't you wanna see the GFS?



Quoting 493. Patrap:
Marco'


Polo
Quoting 508. Patrap:


Getting to the "A" storm in Mid August like in 92 would cause some Jumper's fer sure.



You know we would be hearing screams of "BUST! BUST!" before June was over...and then that A storm would come along...
Quoting 506. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The oceanic kelvin wave is now sporting a peak anomaly of 6.3C around 150m below the Pacific surface. How much higher is it going to go?



I am still looking for a large change in the thermocline off the South American coast. So far not much yet. It still seems as if the warming is still too far North!!!!

Quoting 510. Astrometeor:


You know we would be hearing screams of "BUST! BUST!" before June was over...and then that A storm would come along...


That sounds like a song from the musical Carousel.
During the last 4 weeks, equatorial SSTs were above average around the International
Date Line and near to below average across most of the eastern Pacific.

The Bomb knocked these two reporters from The Weather Network down..

Quoting 514. Skyepony:
The Bomb knocked these two reporters from The Weather Network down..



Are they related to Jim Cantore?
Quoting 498. Astrometeor:


Alright, I just gotta get this out of my system:

Kyle sounds like a weak storm.

:) And that's if we make it that far down the list.
Hey >:( Sadly, I agree with you...
Quoting 514. Skyepony:
The Bomb knocked these two reporters from The Weather Network down..



One day on a LIVE shot, someone is gonna wish they had a Helmet on,..and a Producer will faint.
Halifax, Nova Scotia had some fun.

Finally found news from Canada about the storm...had to go past announcements about the local senior cribbage game being canceled...


Edit:

SEL5

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 35
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
945 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 945 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF FLIPPIN ARKANSAS TO 25 MILES SOUTH OF POTEAU
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&
140 year old church point lighthouse, on the southwest side of Nova Scotia was destroyed.

The Bomb took it skye, seems it never had a chance once something opened up...

Sheeesh'



Before:
What a contrast to say, had this happened in Atlanta...

RCMP, Department of Transportation applaud Nova Scotian's blizzard common sense

The Nova Scotia RCMP and Nova Scotia Department of Transportation and Infrastructure Renewal would like to take this opportunity to thank Nova Scotians for using good judgement and staying off the roads during yesterday's blizzard.

Although heavy snowfall and high winds created hazardous driving conditions, there were minimal collisions and few people were reported near beaches and the water's edge. "With so few vehicles on our roads it was clear - people were listening to the watches and warnings,"says Supt. Darrell Beaton, of the RCMP.

"That kind of behavior makes the job of first responders and snow plow operators much easier during any winter storm."

Geoff MacLellan, Minister, Transportation and Infrastructure Renewal added "We’re very grateful to everyone who heeded the warnings to stay off the roads. It was not only helpful for our clean-up work, but went a long way toward keeping everyone safe.”
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



!!! Discoveries Challenge Beliefs on Humans' Arrival in the Americas

Shovel face: A new fossil reptile is unlike anything previously found



* Fracking's Earthquake Risks Push States to Collaborate

Drunk on Global Warming: Today's Top Reads (article list)

It's Crow Killing Time in Upstate New York, and Elsewhere

*** Crows Solve Aesop's Fable Puzzles, Offer Clues to Cognition

!!! Scientists hail synthetic chromosome advance


California goes nuts for water

*** New way to filter light: May provide first directional selectivity for light waves

!!! Computing with slime: Logical circuits built using living slime molds




*** In mapping feat, scientists pinpoint neurons where select memories grow

!!! Inspiration linked to bipolar disorder risk

*** First comprehensive atlas of human gene activity


* Smoke-free air policies seem to protect the heart

Controlling electron spins by light


* First ring system around asteroid: Chariklo found to have two rings



*** Don't forget F-type stars in search for life

*** Seasonal Arctic summer ice extent still hard to forecast, study says


* Targeting enforcement where needed most in Africa's heart of biodiversity

!!! Major increase in West Antarctic glacial loss

Alaska editorial roundup

* Colorado River begins flooding Mexican delta

South Africa and Lesotho move forward on mega water project

House of Representatives votes to limit president on public monuments

*** Discovery of Planetoid Hints at Bigger Cousin in Shadows

Guinea: Government Bans Bat Soup to Halt Ebola Outbreak



Most Chinese Cities Fail Minimum Air Quality Standards, Study Says

*** Galveston oil spill damage could be more than meets the eye

Climate change shifts the earth in Alaska

BP refinery spills oil into Lake Michigan

Touched by an Angel: Mummy's Thigh Has a Holy Tattoo
Quoting 510. Astrometeor:


You know we would be hearing screams of "BUST! BUST!" before June was over...and then that A storm would come along...
There was a June storm last year ;)

And are we talking Shirley Temple size bust or Dolly Parton size bust here?
Maritimes storm makes for terrifying landing at Halifax airport
It took 3 attempts and a 2-hour layover in Montreal to get one plane from Cuba safely on ground
Doubt Washi and the rest of the East Coast crew would agree, but March has been a reasonable month for us in Scotland at least :) Despite the same extreme cold pattern running off North America all winter the jet stream bizarrely faded to pretty much nothing, allowing us to appreciate some rapidly increasing sunlight after the near perpetual darkness of a Scottish winter. Sunday begins our Daylight Savings Time and in almost no time at all our 20-hour twilight days will be back again :) At the moment the UK is stuck in a fortnight's easterly pattern, which is quite unusual at any time of year and personally ideal. I'm walking the West Highland Way from Glasgow to Fort William next week so a weather pattern running down the mountains from the east will be perfect sheltered sunshine, as opposed to Atlantic storms battering against the hills of our route, which we are now likely to avoid throughout. Hope to post a good weather snap of Loch Lomond or similar for our wunderground lurkers!
Several cities in the Midwest and Northeast have had extremely snowy winters this year. The following cities are consolidated statistical areas of more than 2 million people. Let's take a closer look:

Chicago:

1) 89.7 IN. 1978-1979
2) 82.3 IN. 1977-1978
3) 80.6 IN. 2013-2014

Will Chicago get to #2?

Detroit:


1) 93.6 IN. 1880-1881 (Laura Ingalls Wilder's The Long Winter)
2) 91.7 IN. 2013-2014

Detroit has a decent shot at #1.

Indianapolis:

1) 58.2 IN. 1981-1982
2) 57.9 IN. 1977-1978
3) 55.4 IN. 2013-2014

I believe Indianapolis has missed their chance.

Philadelphia:


1) 78.7 IN. 2009-2010
2) 68.0 IN. 2013-2014

19.4" fell there on April 3-4 1915.

Note: The Mount Holly NWS office has not put in the 2009-2010 season in their archive. It's only been 4 years! I had to add the monthly totals together. Extremely unsatisfactory.

New York City:

1) 75.6 IN. 1995-1996
2) 63.2 IN. 1947-1948
3) 61.9 IN. 2010-2011
4) 60.4 IN. 1922-1923
5) 60.3 IN. 1872-1873
6) 57.8 IN. 1874-1875
7) 57.4 IN. 2013-2014

March was disappointing.

Cincinnati:

1) 53.9 IN. 1977-1978
2) 47.3 IN. 1976-1977
4) 46.9 IN. 2013-2014

#1 is doubtful but won't take much to take Cincinnati to #2

Columbus:

1) 67.8 IN. 1909-1910
2) 54.3 IN. 2013-2014

#1 highly unlikely.
Quoting 524. Skyepony:
What a contrast to say, had this happened in Atlanta...

RCMP, Department of Transportation applaud Nova Scotian's blizzard common sense

The Nova Scotia RCMP and Nova Scotia Department of Transportation and Infrastructure Renewal would like to take this opportunity to thank Nova Scotians for using good judgement and staying off the roads during yesterday's blizzard.

Although heavy snowfall and high winds created hazardous driving conditions, there were minimal collisions and few people were reported near beaches and the water's edge. "With so few vehicles on our roads it was clear - people were listening to the watches and warnings,"says Supt. Darrell Beaton, of the RCMP.

"That kind of behavior makes the job of first responders and snow plow operators much easier during any winter storm."

Geoff MacLellan, Minister, Transportation and Infrastructure Renewal added "We’re very grateful to everyone who heeded the warnings to stay off the roads. It was not only helpful for our clean-up work, but went a long way toward keeping everyone safe.”


Not just the South; had the same snowy weather impacted the UK or anywhere in NW Europe then there'd have been severe disruption. NW Europe can deal with the strong winds and waves from ocean storms just like Nova Scotia but rarely has to deal with blizzards on the roads as well: such a storm would cripple, say, the UK, regardless of the warnings heeded. Though the UK is probably comparable to the South in failing at winter weather warnings.
Quoting 500. Doppler22:

None of those storms sound threatening to me. Not even the infamous "I" storm.
Since 2008,we have seen every season with the I named storm was a least a hurricane.
Let's see what the Bufkit Warehouse has to say about future snow prospects.

Chicago:



Indianapolis:



Cincinnati:




Columbus, OH:



Detroit:



Philadelphia:




LaGuardia airport, NYC:


New blog for the severe weather reports.
Link
This an interesting news story about a company named Metron. They have developed several search and rescue algorithms using Bayesian probabilities, and it generally works well. Every clue or piece of evidence is assigned a number from 1 to 10, 1 being extremely unlikely and 10 being extremely likely. We start working our way down the 10's until they don't lead to more evidence. They then go down to 1 but they are never discarded, because it's still uncertain which piece of evidence was really a 10 until you find something like a lost person or a lost airplane. Any low probability evidence automatically moves up when it leads to other evidence or it definitely association with the missing person or object. We used their algorithms all the time and, since it's all processed by computer, it removes the human element of wanting to chase some clue based on a "hunch". It took an amazingly long time for the search and rescue community to accept that probability theory would produce better results than wandering around aimlessly hoping we'd find something. :-)

As the article says, they did quite a bit of work on the Steve Fossett search. I worked with them quite closely on that one, and it showed the limits of any probability theory. We had location he took off from and that was it. No other evidence or clues (well, at least legitimate evidence or clues) ever turned up after almost two months of searching. Without any evidence, the computers are stuck, and it was a hiker a year later who actually found Fossetts's plane and his remains. I'm fearful we have same situation with MH370.

I thought some of you college students taking probability might be interested.
Quoting 450. Dakster:



God must have liked it, so he put a ring on it.


ok...that is the sweetest thing
Also, it can't go without pointing out why we suddenly come to fully understand the original naming of American colonies:

2013-14 winter

New England: (relative) slight skiff of a major storm; disruption; panic
England: very slight skiff of a major storm; major disruption; panic and near political crisis

Nova Scotia: 955mb storm slamming the coast, relatively minor disruption, sturdy warnings and coping mechanisms
(Old) Scotia [Scotland] sub-950 mb storms slamming through December-February, relatively minor disruption etc...

Suddenly it all makes perfect sense... ;)


Quoting Skyepony:
Maritimes storm makes for terrifying landing at Halifax airport
It took 3 attempts and a 2-hour layover in Montreal to get one plane from Cuba safely on ground

I very surprised the airport was even open. Air Transat is a mostly charter airline that specializes in holiday flying. They pack you in like cattle, their fleet is old, and they are famous for the "Azores Glider" flight. Google it if you want to see how good their maintenance is. The had a couple of really good pilots on that flight, however, which is the only reason everyone on board didn't die. I would have stayed in Montreal last night and let that airplane give a try....just without me on board.
Quoting PedleyCA:


Before:

Didn't look like it was in real good shape before the storm, which probably explains why it collapsed.
***** BREAKING NEWS *****

Search operation for Malaysia Airlines aircraft: Update 23

The search area for missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 has been updated after a new credible lead
was provided to the Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA).

As a result today’s search will shift to an area 1,100 kilometres to the north east based on updated
advice provided by the international investigation team in Malaysia.


The Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB), Australia’s investigation agency, has examined this
advice and determined that this is the most credible lead to where debris may be located.

The new search area is approximately 319,000 square kilometres and around 1,850 kilometres west of
Perth.

The new information is based on continuing analysis of radar data between the South China Sea and the
Strait of Malacca before radar contact was lost.

It indicated that the aircraft was travelling faster than previously estimated, resulting in increased fuel
usage and reducing the possible distance the aircraft travelled south into the Indian Ocean.

ATSB advises the potential flight path may be the subject of further refinement as the international
investigative team supporting the search continues their analysis.

The Australian Geospatial-Intelligence Organisation is re-tasking satellites to image the new area.

Weather conditions have improved in the area and ten aircraft are tasked for today’s search.

They include two Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) P3 Orions, a Japanese Coast Guard jet, a
Japanese P3 Orion, a Republic of Korea P3 Orion, a Republic of Korea C130 Hercules, a Royal New
Zealand Air Force (RNZAF) P3 Orion, a Chinese military Ilyushin IL-76, a United States Navy P8
Poseidon aircraft, and one civil jet acting as a communications relay.

A further RAAF P3 Orion has been placed on standby at Pearce to investigate any reported sightings.

There are now six vessels relocating to the new search area including HMAS Success and five Chinese
ships.
Quoting Astrometeor:
Halifax, Nova Scotia had some fun.

Finally found news from Canada about the storm...had to go past announcements about the local senior cribbage game being canceled...

Hey, the cancellation of those cribbage games was the Big news. You just think it was the weather. :-)
Quoting 537. sar2401:

I very surprised the airport was even open. Air Transat is a mostly charter airline that specializes in holiday flying. They pack you in like cattle, their fleet is old, and they are famous for the "Azores Glider" flight. Google it if you want to see how good their maintenance is. The had a couple of really good pilots on that flight, however, which is the only reason everyone on board didn't die. I would have stayed in Montreal last night and let that airplane give a try....just without me on board.


I can only speak from experience going to Toronto from Glasgow last year, Transat wasn't the most pleasant experience, but far from a bad, genuinely budget flight. Can't comment on any specific maintenance issues but ultimately Transat and almost all Western and multinational airlines now enjoy a truly astounding safety record. Don't think it should have attempted this flight though, for obvious reasons.
Quoting AussieStorm:
***** BREAKING NEWS *****

Search operation for Malaysia Airlines aircraft: Update 23

The search area for missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 has been updated after a new credible lead
was provided to the Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA).

As a result today%u2019s search will shift to an area 1,100 kilometres to the north east based on updated
advice provided by the international investigation team in Malaysia.


The Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB), Australia%u2019s investigation agency, has examined this
advice and determined that this is the most credible lead to where debris may be located.

The new search area is approximately 319,000 square kilometres and around 1,850 kilometres west of
Perth.

The new information is based on continuing analysis of radar data between the South China Sea and the
Strait of Malacca before radar contact was lost.

It indicated that the aircraft was travelling faster than previously estimated, resulting in increased fuel
usage and reducing the possible distance the aircraft travelled south into the Indian Ocean.

ATSB advises the potential flight path may be the subject of further refinement as the international
investigative team supporting the search continues their analysis.

The Australian Geospatial-Intelligence Organisation is re-tasking satellites to image the new area.

Weather conditions have improved in the area and ten aircraft are tasked for today%u2019s search.

They include two Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) P3 Orions, a Japanese Coast Guard jet, a
Japanese P3 Orion, a Republic of Korea P3 Orion, a Republic of Korea C130 Hercules, a Royal New
Zealand Air Force (RNZAF) P3 Orion, a Chinese military Ilyushin IL-76, a United States Navy P8
Poseidon aircraft, and one civil jet acting as a communications relay.

A further RAAF P3 Orion has been placed on standby at Pearce to investigate any reported sightings.

There are now six vessels relocating to the new search area including HMAS Success and five Chinese
ships.

Which means that all the floating junk observed by all the satellites was just that - floating junk. This is the most amazing wild goose chase I've ever seen. Shifting a search 1100 km north brings into question how reliable the Inmarsat data was and is. That is a gigantic shift based on some new mathematical theory which is coming from eight handshakes that never showed more than the bearing from the satellite to the aircraft.

It's absolutely impossible to effectively search 319,000 square kilometers of ocean with 10 aircraft and six vessels, especially since some of the aircraft and vessels are of doubtful reliability. Each resource has to search about 20,000 square kilometers. This about equal to the surface area of New Jersey. The probability of detection of any object in the open ocean is the number of resources, type of resources, the size of the object, and the number passes or sweeps thought the search area. We won't even consider weather, visibility, or other variables.

For the sake of simplicity, we'll assume all resources have the same probability of detection (POD) of a 3 square meter (about 32 square feet) object, and that all resources are assigned an equal area. In order for a resource to cover the assigned area of 20,000 square kilometers and reach a 25% POD (which is considered unacceptably low for any normal search), the resource would have to make about 490 passes. Increasing POD by more passes is logarithmic, not arithmetic. Each additional pass increases the POD by a smaller amount as you get to a higher POD percentage. In order to get a 75% POD, which is generally about as high as you can get in real life, and still means you have a 25% chance you missed the object, each resource would need to make 12,472 passes. It would take about 11 years at 8 hours a day to complete the passes.

I'm not writing anything the Australian experts don't already know. I obviously have no idea what their plan is but, unless we can stop shifting the supposed last known point and come up with a smaller spatial area to search, this operation is absolutely hopeless. Only an amazing stroke of luck has a chance.
This is just rockin' my world.

Models continue to show solid precipitation Saturday and Saturday
night given the strong, deep forcing with the front. This has
prompted the issuance of a Winter Storm Watch for all of eastern
California (except the surprise valley) from Lassen to Mono
counties. It is becoming obvious that a solid High Sierra
snowfall is in the offing. The only remaining caveats appear to
be snow levels and snowfall intensity/timing. My gut feeling for
snow levels is that with such strong forcing/heavy precipitation
and only a modest rise in snow levels ahead of the front, snow
levels will come down fairly quickly as the front approaches the
northern Sierra. Regarding snowfall intensity, this will be
important during the daylight hours given the time of year. If
snow is heavy, it can accumulate on roads even in the daytime.
However, if it lightens up roads tend to melt off the snow quickly
so snow that falls in the evening or before late morning will have
the best shot at causing travel issues.


And this... I'm not going to begrudge the lost farm construction time.

Long term...Monday through Thursday...
a storm with low snow levels is expected for the start of the work
week. Computer models continue to show consistent timing for its
arrival, with snow in the northern Sierra and northeast California Monday
morning quickly spreading across northern Nevada Monday afternoon and
evening. Precipitation type is likely to be snow for most
locations, with the possible exception of western Nevada valleys where
rain or a rain/snow mix is possible Monday afternoon/evening. A
cold front passage Monday night will usher in even cooler air and
lower snow levels along with breezy or windy conditions. As such,
travel impacts are likely across the Sierra and western Nevada Monday
night and Tuesday morning.
Quoting 539. AussieStorm:
***** BREAKING NEWS *****

Search operation for Malaysia Airlines aircraft: Update 23

The search area for missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 has been updated after a new credible lead
was provided to the Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA).

As a result today’s search will shift to an area 1,100 kilometres to the north east based on updated
advice provided by the international investigation team in Malaysia.


The Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB), Australia’s investigation agency, has examined this
advice and determined that this is the most credible lead to where debris may be located.

The new search area is approximately 319,000 square kilometres and around 1,850 kilometres west of
Perth.

The new information is based on continuing analysis of radar data between the South China Sea and the
Strait of Malacca before radar contact was lost.

It indicated that the aircraft was travelling faster than previously estimated, resulting in increased fuel
usage and reducing the possible distance the aircraft travelled south into the Indian Ocean.

ATSB advises the potential flight path may be the subject of further refinement as the international
investigative team supporting the search continues their analysis.

The Australian Geospatial-Intelligence Organisation is re-tasking satellites to image the new area.

Weather conditions have improved in the area and ten aircraft are tasked for today’s search.

They include two Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) P3 Orions, a Japanese Coast Guard jet, a
Japanese P3 Orion, a Republic of Korea P3 Orion, a Republic of Korea C130 Hercules, a Royal New
Zealand Air Force (RNZAF) P3 Orion, a Chinese military Ilyushin IL-76, a United States Navy P8
Poseidon aircraft, and one civil jet acting as a communications relay.

A further RAAF P3 Orion has been placed on standby at Pearce to investigate any reported sightings.

There are now six vessels relocating to the new search area including HMAS Success and five Chinese
ships.
Hard to think that if they don't find anything in the next few weeks, it'll be YEARS before someone find the plane.
Check out this dust devil? or something we've been watching on ylee's blog. Left several captured images in the comments..
Quoting Skyepony:
The Bomb knocked these two reporters from The Weather Network down..



Hosers...:-)
Quoting Skyepony:
Check out this dust devil? or something we've been watching on ylee's blog. Left several captured images in the comments..

Hmm...did a cold front just go through there? It looks like a cold air funnel, and they tend to behave like what you guys have been describing on the blog.
Quoting nonblanche:
This is just rockin' my world.


Muh oh...sounds like one of those storms that give western Nevada a good pounding, especially out east along Highway 50. The latest "blizzard" I was ever in in Carson City was April 12, so it's still very possible to get a god snowstorm this late in the season.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Hard to think that if they don't find anything in the next few weeks, it'll be YEARS before someone find the plane.

Years may be optimistic. No matter what part of the south Indian Ocean the plane happens to be, once the beacon on the flight data recorder stops working, that's pretty much it. If it's down in 10,000 feet of water, way off the shipping lanes, and in an area without much commercial fishing, it's going to take technology not even developed yet to find it.
Quoting 549. sar2401:


Muh oh...sounds like one of those storms that give western Nevada a good pounding, especially out east along Highway 50. The latest "blizzard" I was ever in in Carson City was April 12, so it's still very possible to get a god snowstorm this late in the season.


I'm 5 miles east of Fallon, about a mile off 50. :) I'm hoping to have some delightful pics to share. I am SO glad we got that solar greenhouse finished, it's loaded up with greens, sprouts, and our emergency back-up berry canes and crowns.

Also glad I haven't put the onion starts in the ground.

Who am I kidding? I'm as excited as I used to be listening to WOND, waiting to hear if they call our school.
Um, this escalated quickly? I didn't expect to be in a hatched area for hail.


Quoting nymore:
The KLM pilot never a permission to take off. He was running out of flight hours and tried to take off once when the co-pilot stopped him and said they don't have permission. After that arrogance and bad communications result in a deadly accident.

Indeed, but he thought he heard he had permission for takeoff from the tower. IIRC, it was the flight engineer that questioned him about if Pan Am was off the runway. He thought he heard the Pan Am had cleared the runway. A combination of poor English and an ancient radio system contributed to the crash, as well as a captain who didn't listen to his crew. As is usual with all crashes, it took more than one thing, occurring in just the right order fro a tragedy like this to occur.
Quoting SouthCentralTx:
Um, this escalated quickly? I didn't expect to be in a hatched area for hail.



Seems they've moved to 15% risk area further east over me as well.
Good Morning!...............................
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
353 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014

...RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START THE WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY-SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS AS THE PREVIOUSLY DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SERIES OF 500 MB PERTURBATIONS
WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE PENINSULA OF FLORIDA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE MAIN PORTION OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH THE PARENT LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WILL NEAR THE REGION TODAY. AMPLE MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE 500 MB DISTURBANCES SHOULD PRODUCE DECENT
CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY...INCREASING TONIGHT BEFORE CLEARING OUT
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

PERHAPS THE MOST DIFFICULT PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE TEMPERATURES.
CLOUD COVER HAS WREAKED HAVOC WITH TEMPERATURES AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO DO SO AGAIN TODAY. GUIDANCE SPREAD IS MINIMAL...THOUGH
THE COOLER 00Z NAM MET MOS BLENDED WITH THE 00Z NAM AND A LITTLE
INFLUENCE FROM THE 00Z GFS MAV MOS WAS PREFERRED. THE LARGER
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN GUIDANCE WERE IN THE POPS...FAVORED A WETTER
THAN CONSENSUS FORECAST FOR TODAY DUE TO AMPLE MOISTURE AND PLENTY
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION. SOME AREAS COULD SEE 2
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

HAVE INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...THANKS TO INCREASING SUPPORT FOR STORMS PROVIDED BY A
VIGOROUS 250 MB UPPER LEVEL JET AND A DEVELOPING 40 KT 700 MB LOW
LEVEL JET HEADING INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH OFFER MUCAPE
VALUES ABOVE 1500 J/KG AT 18Z SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...WHILE OFFERING 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES NEAR 100 M2/S2.

ONE INTERESTING NOTE IS THE ALMOST 200 M2/S2 ACROSS THE SUWANNEE
RIVER VALLEY AT 18Z SATURDAY IN THE 00Z ECMWF. THESE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT A FAVORABLE SEVERE STORM ENVIRONMENT COULD EXIST
ON SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS AN AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON DAY 2 THAT
INCLUDES LEVY COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF CITRUS COUNTY. THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS IS WIND...THOUGH TORNADO POTENTIAL
EXISTS IF THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WERE TO TRANSPIRE.

THE 00Z GFS...00Z NAM...AND 00Z ECMWF ALL MAINTAIN SIMILAR TIMING
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE WEAKENED FRONT
FINALLY EXITING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ALONG WITH ANOTHER SOLID SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AREA.
Updated!
Well tomorrow is going to get stormy around tampa bay..
SAR..heed your warnings tonight..stay safe ok...
good chance for supercell storms tomorrow......
564. VR46L
Good Morning Folks !!!

Anyone see the HRRR Composite Relativity Solution Nasty line
Quoting 559. Gearsts:
Updated!


Yikes! LOL.... There is no denying that. Incredible. Many are saying this is "one" of the strongest Kelvin Waves ever observed.



Yes! Lots of rain for the Sierra's

New England seems to get soaked as well
Quoting 565. StormTrackerScott:


Yikes! LOL.... There is no denying that. Incredible. Many are saying this is the strongest Kelvin Wave ever observed.


Jeez, that looks bad
Quoting 564. VR46L:
Good Morning Folks !!!

Anyone see the HRRR Composite Relativity Solution Nasty line


It's funny you post that as I have been wondering when SPC was going to pull the trigger and add FL into the Slight risk category today as heating will occur before that line arrives. Might get into the mid 80's today with dewpoints rising toward 70.
Zone of Disturbed Weather 14:
570. VR46L
Quoting 568. StormTrackerScott:


It's funny you post that as I have been wondering when SPC was going to pull the trigger and add FL into the Slight risk category today as heating will occur before that line arrives. Might get into the mid 80's today with dewpoints rising toward 70.


I think they update the map within the next hour . I see they have day 6 marked already for the Southern Plains !
Quoting 567. nwobilderburg:


Jeez, that looks bad


Yeah it's just a matter of time before all of those warm anomalies surface and when they do then get ready as we will be in for some fast warming across the nino regions.
It begins. With all the cold air spilling out of the Arctic, and down the east coast of the US (as well as Siberia), warm air has been moving north into the Arctic. Alaska was warmer than Alabama for much of the winter. So, Arctic Ocean ice melt appears to have got off to a quick start.

I wonder what climatic oddities would result from a record Arctic Ocean ice melt, combined with a record El Nino? Now, that really would be uncharted waters. We live in interesting times.

i read the new search area has even more garbage floating around. they be out there tonight looking around
record el nino? last i heard there was only a 50 % chance
Quoting 572. yonzabam:
It begins. With all the cold air spilling out of the Arctic, and down the east coast of the US (as well as Siberia), warm air has been moving north into the Arctic. Alaska was warmer than Alabama for much of the winter. So, Arctic Ocean ice melt appears to have got off to a quick start.

I wonder what climatic oddities would result from a record Arctic Ocean ice melt, combined with a record El Nino? Now, that would really be uncharted waters. We live in interesting times.



I agree with most of your post with the exception that "Alaska has been warmer than Alabama for most of the Winter". I think that is a bit of a stretch.
Quoting 574. islander101010:
record el nino?


It sure looks that way. Have you seen post# 559. All of those warm anomalies are beginning to surface and when they do then there is no stopping to how strong this El-Nino will get.
577. MTWX
Going to be a hail of a day in East Texas!!
What I can't get over is how much the 6C anomalies have spread over the last week beneath the surface of the Central Pacific. I think we might see Doc do another blog on this soon as there are some impressive things going on across the Pacific right now that are all pointing to a possible "Super El-Nino".
579. beell
With a 40-50 knot LLJ and backed surface winds there could be a couple of brief spin ups as this line propagates to the SE and nears the coast/Mobile.

Quoting 578. StormTrackerScott:
What I can't get over is how much the 6C anomalies have spread over the last week beneath the surface of the Central Pacific. I think we might see Doc do another blog on this soon as there are some impressive things going on across the Pacific right now that are all pointing to a possible "Super El-Nino".


ESPI is +70. Which is an indicator of El-Nino. Notice how dry the western Pacific have become.

581. MTWX
Quoting 579. beell:
With a 40-50 knot LLJ and backed surface winds there could be a couple of brief spin ups as this line propagates to the SE and nears the coast/Mobile.



Really nice mid level cyclonic spin just SE of Hattiesburg

Link
Lots of shear in place as this complex of thunderstorms slides down across FL later today. Also heating is occurring as the sun is out which should further increase instability.

Quoting 581. MTWX:


Really nice mid level cyclonic spin just SE of Hattiesburg

Link


GFS has this complex over C FL tonight.


to much rain
ouch..

A line of strong storms/heavy rain from Monroeville AL-Wiggins MS will track southeast toward the coast over next few hours.
Quoting 524. Skyepony:
What a contrast to say, had this happened in Atlanta...

RCMP, Department of Transportation applaud Nova Scotian's blizzard common sense

The Nova Scotia RCMP and Nova Scotia Department of Transportation and Infrastructure Renewal would like to take this opportunity to thank Nova Scotians for using good judgement and staying off the roads during yesterday's blizzard.

Although heavy snowfall and high winds created hazardous driving conditions, there were minimal collisions and few people were reported near beaches and the water's edge. "With so few vehicles on our roads it was clear - people were listening to the watches and warnings,"says Supt. Darrell Beaton, of the RCMP.

"That kind of behavior makes the job of first responders and snow plow operators much easier during any winter storm."

Geoff MacLellan, Minister, Transportation and Infrastructure Renewal added "We’re very grateful to everyone who heeded the warnings to stay off the roads. It was not only helpful for our clean-up work, but went a long way toward keeping everyone safe.”



I think it needs to be pointed out that despite a near record number of snow events including some nasty ones with well below freezing temperatures freezing slush layers, the DC area did not have any severe traffic disasters due to snow this year. We were very proactive about closing down and minimizing commerce and activity. We learned our lesson perhaps from the January 2011 crippling when a burst of heavy (5") snow struck at evening rush hour causing many 12+ hour commutes (I saw the radar at 3"PM and bugged out,
a luxury many other workers did not have)


Quoting 559. Gearsts:
Updated!


To quote Charlie Brown, "good grief". One more Westerly Wind Burst and that monster will probably surface. That 6C anomaly zone is ridiculously large.
have not seen any post by evac in along time
?. characters sometime just fade away
Quoting 589. TimSoCal:


To quote Charlie Brown, "good grief". One more Westerly Wind Burst and that monster will probably surface. That 6C anomaly zone is ridiculously large.


The planet is about to burp and this one stinks.
592. Spazi
Really don't know where else on this site to post this but I had a quick question about the Wundermap and how to interpret MSL intervals for ECMWF


The bubble help for MSL ...

"The MSL charts show mean sea-level pressure (blue contours, 4 mb interval), 1000 to 500 mb thickness (yellow contours, 60 m interval), and accumulated precipitation (color fill, see colorbar for intervals). The NAM shows the next 6 hours; the GFS shows the previous 6 hours if the forecast time is even (e.g., 6, 12, 18, 24 hour forecasts), and the previous 3 hours if the forecast time is odd (e.g., 3, 9, 15, 21 hour forecasts; and the RUC shows the previous 1 hour for the forecast times 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, and 8, and the previous 3 hours for forecast times 3, 6, and 9."

No mention of ECMWF, and not sure how to interpret the time intervals. Is it the same as GFS?

thxs
593. VR46L
Quoting 590. islander101010:
have not seen any post by evac in along time
?. characters sometime just fade away


I haven't either , I guess he may show up during the season when /if it starts !
Quoting 589. TimSoCal:


To quote Charlie Brown, "good grief". One more Westerly Wind Burst and that monster will probably surface. That 6C anomaly zone is ridiculously large.


It looks as if a large portion of the warmth that the ocean has 'borrowed' from the surface may be about to be repaid. This will probably result in a record global temperature record in 2015.

Whatever will the 'it hasn't warmed since 1998' brigade do then?
Quoting 595. yonzabam:


It looks as if a large portion of the warmth that the ocean has 'borrowed' from the surface may be about to be repaid. This will probably result in a record global temperature record in 2015.

Whatever will the 'it hasn't warmed since 1998' brigade do then?


They'll claim its a one-off, never to be repeated weather extreme. The more it's hyped, the more they're likely to get away with it.



Day 1 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 am CDT Friday Mar 28 2014


Valid 281300z - 291200z


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms portions central Texas to
middle-south region and Gulf Coast states...


...
Downstream from large northestern Pacific cyclone...progressive/quasi-zonal
flow will persist across Continental U.S.. shortwave trough associated with
convection over MO/Iowa yesterday is moving east-northeastward across upper Great
Lakes at this time...and will continue to weaken as it accelerates eastward over
southern ont...southern Quebec and New England. Meanwhile...shortwave troughs
now over Black Hills and southern High Plains are separate but moving
nearly in step with each other. By 00z...these perturbations should
reach fsd-Oma and dfw-vct corridors...respectively. Southern-stream
trough should eject northeastward across Tennessee Valley region by daybreak
tomorrow morning...as initially weak/intermediary trough amplifies
over Ozarks. Moisture-channel imagery also indicates precursory
shortwave trough has developed in association with -- and probably
resulting from -- persistent/disorganized mesoscale convective system over la/MS/al. This
feature should track eastward across central-eastern Gulf coastal plain and
Georgia through remainder period.


At surface...frontal zone associated with departing northern-stream trough
has stalled across southwestern Arkansas...southeastern OK...N-central Texas between
metroplex and Red River and northwest Texas...to weak surface cyclone centered
between abi-sps-cds. As middle-upper level wave moves over central
Texas...cold front will move southward over that region while surface low
migrates east-southeastward to E-central/southeast Texas. Overnight...low should
shift/redevelop east-northeastward over northern MS...deepening and reaching
middle-eastern Tennessee by 12z. At that time...cold front should extend southwestward
through western Alabama..sern MS...southeastern la and northwestern Gulf.
Dryline...currently analyzed from northern coahuila northeastward across bwd
area...should mix eastward by middle-late afternoon to I-35/US-77 corridor before
being overtaken from north-S by cold front.


..central Texas to middle-south region and Gulf Coast states...
Broad...messy and somewhat conditional severe threat is evident over
this region. Big 15%/slight area actually is aggregated from three
somewhat distinct threats that overlap spatially...


1. Lower Delta to southern Alabama and Florida Panhandle today --
ongoing/persistent mesoscale convective system over this region is expected to translate
slowly eastward...offering risk of sporadic damaging downdrafts...mainly
from outflow driven by precipitation loading in small bows. Hail threat
appears marginal and tied to any sustained supercell structures...given
weak ambient lapse rates. Tornado potential from any
embedded/transient supercells cannot be ruled out but is very
dependent on mesoscale-Beta to storm-scale effects.


2. S Texas to arklatex and mid-south...morning through evening --
scattered...initially elevated thunderstorms have developed between sjt-mwl
in regime of low-level warm air advection and moisture transport above strong
inversion layer evident in 12z forward/drt radiosonde observations. This or more likely
subsequent/afternoon convection near dryline should move eastward into
diabatically destabilizing air mass. Timing...duration...coverage
and evolution of convection across this area remains very uncertain.
As such...probabilities in this area are adjusted little from prior
outlook.


Very steep midlevel lapse rates are likely...such that maximum
cloud-layer Li of -13 to -16 and 2000-3000 j/kg MLCAPES are possible
even with reduction in surface dew points due to boundary-layer mixing.
That mixing will produce inverted-v thermodynamic profiles suitable
for damaging gusts as well as for maintenance to surface of large hail
generated aloft. Forecast soundings indicate supercell-supportive
low-middle level wind profiles...and presence of large cape aloft in
ideal hail-generation zones. As such...significant/damaging hail is
quite possible from any sustained/discrete storms. Activity may
undergo cold-pool-driven aggregation into one or more bands or arcs
moving east-northeastward to eastward over this area with damaging winds and large
hail possible.


3. MS Delta Region tonight --
another round of thunderstorms may develop in vicinity of surface cold front...offering
damaging winds and isolated hail. Any such activity would move eastward
over air mass that...by then...should have recovered sufficiently
from current mesoscale convective system activity to support renewed severe potential.
Meanwhile deep shear and large-scale ascent each will be enhanced by
approach of shortwave trough...amidst surface dew points middle-60s f.


.Edwards/Smith.. 03/28/2014
Apparently I missed all the fun yesterday.. We get to clean the air out today before next weeks warmth brings tons of pollen
Looks like an interesting show at 8pm tonight on the National Geographic Channel:

Worst Weather Ever



The climate system is driven by heat coming in from the sun, and by heat streaming back out into space.When the system exists with more heat, temperatures, rainfall, clouds and more all change. Scientists are in a race against time to discover what effect the warming world is having on our weather, which is getting wilder and weirder by the moment. The past decade has seen historic hurricanes and tornadoes that even storm chasers aren't prepared for. It seems like the weather is out of control, but severe droughts, storms and floods have happened throughout history. Is the weather actually worse, or does advanced technology just allow us to see more of it?

http://channel.nationalgeographic.com/channel/epi sodes/worst-weather-ever/

Jeff Masters
Quoting 595. yonzabam:


It looks as if a large portion of the warmth that the ocean has 'borrowed' from the surface may be about to be repaid. This will probably result in a record global temperature record in 2015.

Whatever will the 'it hasn't warmed since 1998' brigade do then?


You can't argue that warming has slowed recently. As it is fact that global temps have halted some but I agree with this strong of an El-Nino about to surface that 2015 will likely be the warmest year ever.
Thanks doc..NGC is one of the best channels T.V. has to offer.
Quoting 590. islander101010:
have not seen any post by evac in along time
?. characters sometime just fade away


Chicklit also long time no post.....

Why is climate change different?

By: Dr. Ricky Rood, 5:25 PM CDT on March 27, 2014
Why is climate change different?

This blog was motivated by a question on piece that I posted in the Michigan Journal of Sustainability, The Conversation: Climate Change: A Fundamental Shift of Our Place in the World.

Climate change, that the average surface temperature of planet will warm, that ice will melt, that sea level will rise and that the weather will change, is a unique the environmental challenge. One aspect of its uniqueness is that we have knowledge with adequate certainty that we can anticipate and plan for climate change. This type of knowledge the climate of the Earth is knowledge that generations which preceded us have not had. It is knowledge that we can use or that we can squander.

1) As I stated in Climate Change: A Fundamental Shift of Our Place in the World, the science-based reality of climate changes stands as a fundamental breakthrough of human knowledge. We have the ability to transform the very nature of the planet – and we are doing so. Our individual and group perception of our place in the world is changed. We have to assume the responsibility of what we are doing to the planet. There is the responsibility of how we use the knowledge that we have generated of the ways the planet will change.

2) There is no going back. We should strive to make the best future possible. Returning to the climate that we grew up with is not possible. Ecosystems are changing rapidly, and they will continue to change. When there are ecosystem disruptions such as fires and storms, the recovery will be in a different climate. The familiar idea of conservation to protect and conserve is challenged at its foundation. Our agriculture will need to adapt. How we build the things that we build will need to change.

3) Compared to the classic problems of air and water pollution, the scale of climate change is truly global. We’re melting ice (takes a lot of energy). We’re warming the ocean (takes a lot of energy). We’re heating the surface air temperature. We’re changing ecosystems.

4) Compared to the classic problems of air and water pollution, the length of time that the carbon dioxide pollutant remains with us is long. If we were to turn off the carbon dioxide pollution today, the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere would not just go away. If you turned off carbon dioxide pollution, then the Earth will continue to warm.

5) Carbon dioxide pollution is a measure of societal success. When we think of air and water pollution we think of a contaminant such as mercury that is trace element from burning coal - or a spill of something bad into the water. We, immediately, think we can remove the contaminant, turn off the spill or contain the bad chemicals. Carbon dioxide pollution is different, because our economic success comes from the use of energy and our use of energy remains linked to burning fossil fuels. Release of carbon dioxide is, therefore, a measure of societal success. Carbon dioxide is not a trace contaminant of a bigger process; carbon dioxide pollution is the process.

6) Climate change is not a problem that we can fix and then forget about. The success of our billions on the Earth requires us to alter our environment. With climate change our environment becomes global. Therefore, our success requires us to alter our environment, to manage our pollution and, hence, to manage the climate. We are too many and too consuming to live the fantasy that the Earth is large enough that the spoor of our enterprise is safely absorbed by the ground, the rivers and lakes, the air and the oceans. The more we pollute, the greater the change, the more difficult the adaptation.

We have never lived in a time when the future was without peril. The knowledge that the climate will change gives us an idea of what some of the peril will be. We have the ability to anticipate and adapt to that peril. We can lessen the peril. For all the generations we can imagine, the climate will be changing. Some would say that has always been true. Now we know how it will be changing.
WE may see it all in FL next year tornadoes, floods, followed by record heat/fires in May, then hurricanes come August.
Picture from Crosby, MS earlier this morning. Still considerable flooding ongoing in the area


DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

VALID 311200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT MAINTAINING A PROGRESSIVE AND
ACTIVE PATTERN IN THE 4-8 PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF RELATIVELY
LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVES TRAVERSING THE COUNTRY.

WED /DAY 6/...SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS
DAY 4 AND EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES DAY 5 WILL BE STARVED OF
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AS A NEUTRAL TILT OR
SLIGHTLY POSITIVE TILT FEATURE LATER DAY 6. MODELS INCLUDING MOST
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE DEMONSTRATED RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AS WELL AS
CONSISTENCY AMONG THEMSELVES REGARDING THIS FEATURE. AN AXIS OF
PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL LIKELY RETURN NWD BENEATH STEEP
LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AREA AS A
LLJ DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ATTENDANT LEE CYCLONE. MEANWHILE WIND PROFILES
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. IT APPEARS THAT CLOUDS AND
EARLY CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONVEYOR BELT. HOWEVER
IN WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ADDITIONAL MORE
ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE...ESPECIALLY FROM OK
INTO NRN TX AND SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE THROUGH WARM SECTOR. GIVEN
SLIGHTLY POSITIVE TILT NATURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...CAPPING COULD BE
A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY WITH SRN EXTENT INTO TX. THOUGH MESOSCALE
DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME...OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS
SUFFICIENT FOR A HIGHER END SEVERE THREAT FROM A PART OF THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY REGION.

MODELS BECOME INCREASINGLY DISPERSIVE AND UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
BEYOND DAY 6.

..DIAL.. 03/28/2014
Intense.
Quoting 608. CybrTeddy:
Intense.
It appears that it is growing and picking up speed.
Quoting 608. CybrTeddy:
Intense.


Frighteningly so. I'm starting to agree with Scott on the intensity of the (extremely likely) coming El Nino.
Wow!!
Quoting 609. hydrus:
It appears that it is growing and picking up speed.


With each passing week the Kelvin Wave is getting more and more intense. We may need a bigger scale to accommodate this years El-Nino.
Like years past when this has gone off the scale (like 1997 when the T-depth anomaly chart only went to +4).. I'd bet the core of that is greater than 6, from the size of +6 compared to temp gradient in the rest of it..

Upping some of my odds...

85% of El Nino conditions occurring in the next 7-11weeks. 75% chance this gets declared an offical EL Nino (that persists for 5 months) & 45% chance it becomes a Super El Niño..
Chance of El Nino by winter increases
ABC Rural By Catherine McAloon
PrintEmailFacebookMore services
10
Updated Wed 26 Mar 2014, 12:51pm AEDT
Sun sets over Mount Gambier
PHOTO: Chances of an El Nino, which brings hotter and drier conditions to eastern Australia, have increased for 2014. (Kate Hill: ABC South East)
RELATED STORY: US atmospheric scientists predict intense El Nino

AUDIO: Weather bureau releases EL Nino update, seasonal outlook (ABC Rural)
MAP: Melbourne 3000
The Bureau of Meteorology says the chances of an El Nino event, which brings drier and warmer conditions to eastern and northern Australia, occurring later this year have increased.

Andrew Watkins, manager of climate prediction services at the Bureau of Meteorology, says most of the models the bureau monitors are now indicating El Nino thresholds could be met later this year.

"They're ramping up their probabilities of El Nino through the winter, and indeed most of the models we survey now are saying El Nino thresholds should be met around about August," Dr Watkins said.

And the bureau's long-term outlook is forecasting the big dry to continue in Queensland and parts of New South Wales.

The outlook for April to June is also forecasting drier than normal conditions in the Top End.

In contrast, south-west W.A, and western parts of South Australia, can expect a wetter than usual start to winter.

Daytime temperatures are expected to be warmer in much of south-eastern Australia, while night time temperatures will be warmer than normal across the country.

Dr Watkins, says the climate in eastern Australia is being influenced by increasing temperatures in the tropical pacific ocean - often a pre-cursor to an El Nino.

"That tends to give drier conditions through eastern Australia and northern Australia as well.

"But over in the west what we are seeing is the impact of relatively warm conditions out in the central Indian Ocean.

"That central Indian Ocean warming up is tending to give greater evaporation over the ocean, giving greater moisture of Western Australia, and hence the chance of wetter than normal conditions."

Dr Watkins says in the last couple of weeks there have been significant changes observed in the temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean.

"It's really the temperature in the tropical Pacific Ocean that drives El Nino and La Nina events.

"The tropical Pacific has been warming up over the last couple of weeks, by about 0.4 of a degree."

He says while an El Nino increases the odds of dry conditions in Australia, it doesn't necessarily guarantee them.

"We've seen about 26 El Nino events over the past century or so. About 17 of them have resulted in drought."

Dr Watkins says it's too early to predict whether it could be a weak, or strong, El Nino, and the strength of an El Nino doesn't necessarily equate to the level of impact for Australia.

"We've seen very strong El Ninos, such as 1997-98, still have dry conditions, but not as strong as you may have expected, given the strength of the event.

"We've also had relatively weak El Ninos, such as 2006-07, have quite strong impacts for Australia."
So can someone explain to me the difference between a super El Nino and a Modoki El Nino..couldn't find much on what a "super" El Nino is..

Please be gentle..
Quoting 615. ncstorm:
So can someone explain to me the difference between a super El Nino and a Modoki El Nino..couldn't find much on what a "super" El Nino is..

Please be gentle..


An El Niño Coming in 2014?
By: Michael Ventrice, 8:58 AM CST on February 21, 2014
Quoting 595. yonzabam:


It looks as if a large portion of the warmth that the ocean has 'borrowed' from the surface may be about to be repaid. This will probably result in a record global temperature record in 2015.

Whatever will the 'it hasn't warmed since 1998' brigade do then?


I think we as a group spend too much attention to every specific detail of whatever the next event or series of events to occur that will immediately support or contradict human induced climate change.

The correlation between increasing CO2 vs. it's capability of trapping heat in earths system is a FACT.

But your not going to see a 1 to 1 relationship between the two on such ridiculous small time scales and the 30 year time scale is easily included within that analysis. It's not accurate enough. You need to get the bigger picture to filter out the small forces.

So it's important to not tie this event specifically to the theory, other than that frequency of the intensity of events WILL increase over time in world that continues to trap more energy within it's system. How long it takes for that system to catch up to the C02 concentrations is the only question left need answering, not "if". Whether it's 50 years, 100 years, or 1,000 years, we can't be sure, but what we are sure of is that it WILL most definitely catch up with it as evident with the larger time scales as shown below.

I really think that is the biggest issue in communicating the difficulty we have in the comprehension of the science itself.



Jared
Quoting 615. ncstorm:
So can someone explain to me the difference between a super El Nino and a Modoki El Nino..couldn't find much on what a "super" El Nino is..

Please be gentle..


I don't think there's a true definition, but I'd probably say when the official Nino 3.4 3-month average goes above +2.0C. This has only happened twice since measurements began, 1982-83 and 1997-98.
The El Niño Modoki

El Niño Modoki is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon in the tropical Pacific. It is different from another coupled phenomenon in the tropical Pacific namely, El Niño. Conventional El Niño is characterized by strong anomalous warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific (see figure below). Whereas, El Niño Modoki is associated with strong anomalous warming in the central tropical Pacific and cooling in the eastern and western tropical Pacific (see figure below). Associated with this distinct warming and cooling patterns the teleconnections are very different from teleconnection patterns of the conventional El Niño. Hence, the new phenomenon is of interest to the climate community.
Quoting 615. ncstorm:
So can someone explain to me the difference between a super El Nino and a Modoki El Nino..couldn't find much on what a "super" El Nino is..

Please be gentle..


Super only refers to the strength and is not an actual term. Similar to 1998 in strength.
heary rain moving in soon
That was a "Guest entry" here and a well written and informative one fer sure.
Yay!
Greater Lake Tahoe Area


Winter Storm Watch


Statement as of 2:22 AM PDT on March 28, 2014



... Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from late tonight through
late Saturday night...

A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from late tonight through
late Saturday night.

* Timing: light snow Friday night will intensify by early Saturday
morning and continue into Saturday night.

* Snow accumulations: 1 to 2 feet above 7000 feet... with 6 to 10
inches down to lake level are possible.

* Winds: southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Snow levels: 6500 to 7000 feet Saturday morning falling to
lake level Saturday afternoon.

* Impacts: heavy snow may create low visibility along with
hazardous travel conditions. Be prepared for possible delays
and chain controls... especially over Sierra passes.
CA may have one of the most wettest Rainey season on record this coming fall if we do get a super el Nino in fact I think CA rainy season may start has early has Sep with rain ch likely in June-AUGUST from lift over TS and hurricanes that make. It this way from the E PAC all so monsoon season could be nuts this year
627. VR46L
Quoting 615. ncstorm:
So can someone explain to me the difference between a super El Nino and a Modoki El Nino..couldn't find much on what a "super" El Nino is..

Please be gentle..


I think its just one of those hype terms that are bandied around to illustrate how bad some people think its going to be ....

Smoke billowing from a plant in Tokyo Bay, Japan. Government officials and scientists are gathered in Yokohama this week ahead of the launch of the IPCC report. Photograph: Franck Robichon/EPA

IPCC report: climate change felt 'on all continents and across the oceans'
Leaked text of blockbuster report says changes in climate have already caused impacts on natural and human systems


Suzanne Goldenberg in Yokohama

theguardian.com, Friday 28 March 2014 08.28 EDT

Climate change has already left its mark "on all continents and across the oceans", damaging food crops, spreading disease, and melting glaciers, according to the leaked text of a blockbuster UN climate science report due out on Monday.

Government officials and scientists are gathered in Yokohama this week to wrangle over every line of a summary of the report before the final wording is released on Monday – the first update in seven years.

Nearly 500 people must sign off on the exact wording of the summary, including the 66 expert authors, 271 officials from 115 countries, and 57 observers.

But governments have already signed off on the critical finding that climate change is already having an effect, and that even a small amount of warming in the future could lead to "abrupt and irreversible changes", according to documents seen by the Guardian.

"In recent decades, changes in climate have caused impacts on natural and human systems on all continents and across the oceans," the final report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will say.

Some parts of the world could soon be at a tipping point. For others, that tipping point has already arrived. "Both warm water coral reef and Arctic ecosystems are already experiencing irreversible regime shifts," the approved version of the report will say.

This will be the second of three reports on the causes, consequences of and solutions to climate change, drawing on researchers from around the world.

The first report, released last September in Stockholm, found humans were the "dominant cause" of climate change, and warned that much of the world's fossil fuel reserves would have to stay in the ground to avoid catastrophic climate change.

This report will, for the first time, look at the effects of climate change as a series of risks – with those risks multiplying as temperatures warm.

The thinking behind the decision was to encourage governments to prepare for the full range of potential consequences under climate change.

"It's much more about what are the smart things to do then what do we know with absolute certainty," said Chris Field, one of the co-chairs overseeing the report. "If we want to take a smart approach to the future, we need to consider a full range of possible outcomes and that means not only the more likely outcomes, but also outcomes for truly catastrophic impacts, even if those are lower probability," he said.

The gravest of those risks was to people in low-lying coastal areas and on small islands, because of storm surges, coastal flooding and sea-level rise.

But people living in large urban areas would also be at risk from inland flooding that wipes out homes and businesses, water treatment centres and power plants, as well as from extreme heatwaves.

Food production was also at risk, the report said, from drought, flooding, and changing rainfall patterns. Crop yields could decline by 2% a decade over the rest of the century.

Fisheries will also be affected, with ocean chemistry thrown off balance by climate change. Some fish in the tropics could become extinct. Other species, especially in northern latitudes, are on the move.

Drought could put safe drinking water in short supply. Storms could wipe out electricity stations, and damage other infrastructure, the report is expected to say.

Those risks will not be borne equally, according to draft versions of the report circulated before the meeting. The poor, the young and the elderly in all countries will all be more vulnerable to climate risks.

Climate change will slow down economic growth, and create new "poverty traps". Some areas of the world will also be more vulnerable – such as south Asia and south-east Asia.

The biggest potential risk, however, was of a number of those scenarios unfolding at the same time, leading to conflicts and wars, or turning regional problem into a global crisis, said Saleemul Haq, a senior fellow of the International Institute for Environment and Development and one of the authors of the report.

"The really scary impacts are when things start getting together globally," he said. "If you have a crisis in two or three places around the world, suddenly it's not a local crisis. It is a global crisis, and the repercussions of things going bad in several different places are very severe."

There was controversy in the run-up to the report's release when one of the 70 authors of a draft said he had pulled out of the writing team because it was "alarmist" about the threat. Prof Richard Tol, an economist at Sussex University, said he disagreed with some findings of the summary. But British officials branded his assessment of the economic costs of climate change as "deeply misleading".

The report argues that the likelihood and potential consequences of many of these risks could be lowered if ambitious action is taken to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change. It also finds that governments – if they act now – can help protect populations from those risks.

But the report also acknowledges that a certain amount of warming is already locked in, and that in some instances there is no way to escape the effects of climate change.

The 2007 report on the effects of climate change contained an error that damaged the credibility of the UN climate panel, the erroneous claim that Himalayan glaciers could melt away by 2035.

This year's report will be subject to far more rigorous scrutiny, scientists said. It will also benefit from an explosion of scientific research. The number of scientific publications on the impacts of climate change doubled between 2005 and 2010, the report will say.

Researchers said they also hoped to bring a fresh take on the issue. They said they hoped the reframing of the issue as a series of risks would help governments respond more rapidly to climate change.

"Previously the IPCC was accused of being very conservative," said Gary Yohe, professor of economics and environmental studies at Wesleyan University, one of the authors of the report. "This allows them to be less conservative without being open to criticism that they are just trying to scare people to death."
Quoting 615. ncstorm:
So can someone explain to me the difference between a super El Nino and a Modoki El Nino..couldn't find much on what a "super" El Nino is..

Please be gentle..

As others have said, there's no official criteria for a "Super El Nino", it was dubbed much like "Superstorm Sandy" was. Anyways, in a traditional El Nino, the warmest waters (relative to average) are focused off the coast of South America. In a Modoki El Nino, the warmest waters are focused in the central Pacific, somewhere south of Hawaii.

Aug 2004 (Modoki):



Nov 1997 (Traditional, Super):

What was the Nor'easter's name? How can we possibly keep safe without knowing the storms name???
Well, they did not name the Bomb for the simple reason not enough Millions in the US would be affected,and that alone kept many from the "jitter's" one could say maybe?

: P
CIPS Analog Guidance of St. Louis University have been getting my attention lately with the last few severe events. Today, this popped up on their Twitter feed suggesting something severe around April 3rd. Last time we had the pink in analog, moderate risk was issued for Tennessee on February 20/21.

Quoting 630. jitterboy:
What was the Nor'easter's name? How can we possibly keep safe without knowing the storms name???
Quoting 631. Patrap:
Well, they did not name the Bomb for the simple reason not enough Millions in the US would be affected,and that alone kept many from the "jitter's" one could say maybe?

: P


Yawn. :)
California hauls young salmon
30 million chinook trucked toward sea due to drought
Now this is a little early look what I found its at 10N at. 100W

Remember you can go to my blog to record any severe weather.
severe weather!!
Its in a area of 5 two 20kt of wind shear wounder if it has a Ch

I don't want a "super el nino".My weather around here will be super boring.Like I'm living in California and not D.C.I know the 2013 atlantic hurricane season was a bore fest but at least the winter made up for that.If the el nino is to strong we'll have a warm rainy winter.Bleh!.
Quoting 635. Tazmanian:
Now this is a little early look what I found its at 10N at. 100W

Tropical Storm Amanda?
Quoting 639. opal92nwf:
Wow, tornado in California



Your late two the party we had a EF0 tornado in California back on Wednesday
Orleans Parish

Special Statement

Statement as of 10:06 AM CDT on March 28, 2014

... Line of strong thunderstorms moving east affecting St. Charles
Parish... upper Jefferson Parish... Orleans Parish... upper St. Bernard
Parish...

At 958 am CDT... National Weather Service meteorologists were
tracking a line of strong thunderstorms from near New Orleans to 13
miles southwest of Avondale... moving east at 20 mph.

The line of strong thunderstorms will affect areas in and around...
Bridge City... Lakefront Airport... New Orleans... Westwego... Marrero...
Gretna... Terrytown... Chalmette and Lake Catherine.

These storms are capable of producing wind gusts to near 40
mph... which could down tree limbs and blow around unsecured small
objects. Additionally... frequent lightning is occurring. Seek
shelter in a safe home or building until these storms have passed.

Heavy rainfall of one to two inches in a short period of time will
also be possible with these storms. These rainfall totals could
result in ponding of water around low lying roadways. Remember... do
not drive your vehicle into water covered roadways. The depth may be
too great to allow a safe crossing.

Heavy rain will also result in reduced visibility along area
roadways including interstates 10... 610 and 510. Drivers traveling
through the impacted areas should exercise caution.

Quoting 643. Tazmanian:



Your late two the party we had a EF0 tornado in California back on Wednesday
Yep.:)
Quoting 632. Bluestorm5:
CIPS Analog Guidance of St. Louis University have been getting my attention lately with the last few severe events. Today, this popped up on their Twitter feed suggesting something severe around April 3rd. Last time we had the pink in analog, moderate risk was issued for Tennessee on February 20/21.


Very early April on my birthday, Severe weather seems to have a higher propensity to strike. (for me, usually with a tornado warning)

1999: Experienced a tornado warning near Montgomery, AL. (took shelter in bathroom for a long time)
2006: Tornado warning with actual tornado striking nearby (Close to St. Louis!)
2009: Tornado warning with green skies observed near Ft. Walton Beach, FL. (most scary/serious tornado warned storm I've experienced in FL Panhandle)
Quoting 642. Andrebrooks:
Tropical Storm Amanda?



Vary unlikely still a bit early yet but with a strong el Nino coming we may see a lot of name storm in May this year the E Pac hurricane season may all ready be showing sings of a early start
Good Morning. Very strong squall line moving off-shore of Pensacola at the moment. Hopefully, the stronger t-storms will stay off-shore of the Panhandle. Will let yall know later this afternoon how we fare later in the Tallahassee region.

These type of squall lines usually fall apart just before reaching the Big Bend (because of the stabilizing effect of Appalachee Bay) and then they ramp up again East of us on the way to I-75 and Jacksonville.
Quoting 648. weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Very strong squall line moving off-shore of Pensacola at the moment. Hopefully, the stronger t-storms will stay off-shore of the Panhandle. Will yall know later this afternoon how we fare later in the Tallahassee region.

These type of squall lines usually fall apart just before reaching the Big Bend (because of the stabilizing effect of Appalachee Bay) and then they ramp up again East of us on the way to I-75 and Jacksonville.

Mobile had a severe t'storm warning.
Quoting 649. opal92nwf:

Mobile had a severe t'storm warning.


It's looking pretty nasty at the moment along the coast and just off-shore in those parts.
The fire devil throwing flaming tumbleweeds is a must see..nice Rod Burgundy in there too.
Quoting 643. Tazmanian:



Your late two the party we had a EF0 tornado in California back on Wednesday


I saw it first...
These storms look just as or more intense than the big severe events they forecast, which usually turns out to be a less than hugely impressive/barely severe t'storm limit squall line with not even 60 mph winds experienced here.

I find that the worst storms we get usually occur when the mets aren't heavily predicting a big severe storm event.

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
1027 am EDT Fri Mar 28 2014

Near term [through today]...
active mesoscale convective system across southern Alabama will continue to move slowly
east southeastward today across the Florida Panhandle and adjacent
coastal waters. Local hi-resolution guidance shows the bulk of the
rain associated with this mesoscale convective system moving across our Alabama and
Florida Panhandle zones before spreading offshore. Surface data
show that a rather stable airmass is in place across the region,
so the potential for severe weather is very low.
Quoting 651. Skyepony:
The fire devil throwing flaming tumbleweeds is a must see..nice Rod Burgundy in there too.



Awesomeness, always cool when unexpected.

Its been rumblin and stumblin thru all morn here.

Yes!!!!

Statement as of 10:31 AM CDT on March 28, 2014

... A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect until 1115 am CDT
for southeastern Escambia... southeastern Santa Rosa and Okaloosa
counties...

At 1022 am CDT... a line of severe thunderstorms capable of producing
quarter size hail and damaging winds over 60 mph were located along a
line extending from 6 miles southeast of Gulf Breeze to 10 miles
southeast of Bagdad to 10 miles northwest of Crestview... moving east
at 30 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Pensacola international Airport... midway...
Ocean City... Fort Walton Beach... Woodlawn Beach...
Tiger Point... Navarre Beach... Holley...
Shalimar...

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 14 and 66.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

These are dangerous storms. Prepare for destructive hail and damaging
winds. People outside should move inside a strong building but away
from windows.


Lat... Lon 3027 8755 3053 8717 3043 8717 3038 8726
3033 8726 3039 8687 3037 8711 3045 8695
3054 8703 3043 8709 3043 8710 3060 8703
3092 8682 3092 8640 3045 8639 3048 8646
3042 8659 3038 8639 3037 8640 3038 8682
time... Mot... loc 1530z 290deg 19kt 3031 8702 3053 8683 3085 8663
Quoting 637. hurricanes2018:
severe weather!!


Doesn't really seem enough cape to allow supercells but they're already firing to the North and West.

OTOH the birds are suddenly real noisy, males herding their families around.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 658. redwagon:


Doesn't really seem enough cape to allow supercells but they're already firing to the North and West.

OTOH the birds are suddenly real noisy, males herding their families around.


Quoting 625. oldnewmex:
Yay!
Greater Lake Tahoe Area


Winter Storm Watch


Statement as of 2:22 AM PDT on March 28, 2014



... Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from late tonight through
late Saturday night...

A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from late tonight through
late Saturday night.

* Timing: light snow Friday night will intensify by early Saturday
morning and continue into Saturday night.

* Snow accumulations: 1 to 2 feet above 7000 feet... with 6 to 10
inches down to lake level are possible.

* Winds: southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Snow levels: 6500 to 7000 feet Saturday morning falling to
lake level Saturday afternoon.

* Impacts: heavy snow may create low visibility along with
hazardous travel conditions. Be prepared for possible delays
and chain controls... especially over Sierra passes.


I know, right? Here just east of Fallon it's high clouds, breeze picking up, looks like from the flag out front that wind's blowing to the northeast. We'll probably still get some sunshine here and there - but I think tomorrow's going to be mostly an indoor chores day with bored, irritable goats blaming it all on me.

The neat thing about a dry climate like this is how little rain it takes to spike more green. Meanwhile 240 miles to the west, Honorable Estranged Spouse is grumbling about how El Nino means he has to cut the patch of grass behind his townhouse, and is wishing I could sneak a goat or two into his yard. :)
What's up with the WU Logo today??