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Washington Landslide Death Toll Grows to 14

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:03 PM GMT on March 25, 2014

The death toll has grown to fourteen from Saturday's massive landslide near Oso, Washington, located about 50 miles north-northeast of Seattle. At least seven were injured, and 176 are listed as missing, though this total is likely to decrease dramatically as missing people check in. The landslide was triggered by unusually heavy rains over the past 30 days in the region. A personal weather station located about ten miles west of the slide recorded 13.81" of precipitation in the 30 days prior to the slide, including 5.17" in the ten days just before. Precipitation imagery from NOAA's Advanced Hydrological Precipitation Service (Figure 2) shows that the 30-day precipitation amounts in the region were more than 8" above average--about double the usual amount of rain for this time of year.


Figure 1. The Oso, Washington area before the March 22, 2014 landslide as seen on Google Earth (top) and after the landslide, as photographed by the Washington Department of Transportation (bottom.) The landslide blocked the North Fork of the Stillaguamish River and Highway 530.


Figure 2. Precipitation for the 30-day period ending March 24, 2014, was 150% - 200% of average in Oso, Washington--about 8" above average. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.


Figure 3. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending on Tuesday, April 1, 2014. The landslide area to the northwest of Seattle is expected to receive 2 - 4" of precipitation, which will slow recovery efforts from the landslide. However, the rains over Northern California will be welcome, helping to fill drought-depleted reservoirs as that state's dry season approaches. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

A re-activation of an old landslide
According to Dave Petley, Professor of Hazard and Risk in the Department of Geography at Durham University in the United Kingdom, it is clear that major landslides have occurred here on many previous occasions, so much so that the landslide is known as either the Hazel landslide or the Steelhead landslide. In his excellent Landslide Blog, my go-to source of information for any landslide, he writes: "The landslide has been widely reported as a mudslide. In terms of the lower portion, which did the damage, this is correct, although in places it might have been more of a mudflow than a mudslide. However, the upper portion is a rotational landslide–the rotated block with the fallen trees is very clear. A working hypothesis would be that this block failed catastrophically, transferring load onto the block below, which in turn generated very high pore water pressures, causing fluidisation and a very rapid mudflow that struck the settlements across the river." He writes that the last event on a similar scale he knows of was the 25th December 2003 debris flow in San Bernadino County, California, which killed sixteen people. Weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a post about the worst landslides in U.S. history, which puts this week's landslide in context.

The Yakima Herald has a very nice article that details the chronology of events on the Oso landslide. This includes:
• 1949: A large landslide (1000 feet long and 2600 feet wide) affected the river bank
• 1951: Another large failure of the slope; the river was partially blocked
• 1967: Seattle Times published an article that referred to this site as “Slide Hill”
• 1997 report, by Daniel Miller, for the Washington Department of Ecology and the Tualialip Tribes
• 1999: US Army Corps of Engineers report by Daniel and Lynne Rodgers Miller that warned of “the potential for a large catastrophic failure”
• 25 January 2006: large movement of the Steelhead landslide blocked the river



When Will Spring Come For REAL? Join Me at 5:30pm EDT Tuesday for a Google Hangout Discussion
Spring has officially begun for those of us in the Northern Hemisphere, but it's still more like winter in the Midwest and Northeast U.S. In celebration of the new season, I'll host a 15-minute Google Hangout on Tuesday, March 25th at 5:30pm EDT to review where on Earth the most severe winter weather is occurring, and forecast when those of us still experiencing winter can expect to see Spring--for real! I'll focus on the forecast for four cities: Detroit, Boston, Seattle, and Moscow, and discuss some of the remarkable weather events those cities have seen this month. You can watch the hangout by visiting our Weather Underground Spring Forecast page.



Jeff Masters

Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. Patrap
A Herman Cain Post, 999..LOL
Back to blizzard here lol
Quoting 1002. Dragod66:
Back to blizzard here lol
winds out of the n nw yet
Quoting 1003. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
winds out of the n nw yet


Blowing North now! EC is saying they are waker, but I can tell that they are stronger right now. Add 4cm/hr snow and it looks white out!
Quoting 1004. Dragod66:


Blowing North now! EC is saying they are waker, but I can tell that they are stronger right now. Add 4cm/hr snow and it looks white out!


near Halifax it was clear half hour ago

the winds will make it look worse than it is now

EC says max gusts should be near 120kmh no higher

Peru’s official El Niño commission said last week that they are expecting an El Niño to start as soon as April. Peru tracks this closely because “El Nino threatens to batter the fishmeal industry by scaring away abundant schools of cold-water anchovy.”

Look at how far south the southern Jet is on the GFS. Expect a cold few weeks across most of the Country.

Looks like an El-Nino pattern is beginning to dominate now.

Quoting 1005. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


near Halifax it was clear half hour ago

the winds will make it look worse than it is now

EC says max gusts should be near 120kmh no higher



Bedford!!! That is me!
I am beginning to wonder if we will have a tornado season.
Quoting 639. Xulonn:
You call 10" an "explosion" of rain? You ain't seen 'nuthin. C'mon down to the highlands of Western Panama where we average 32.5' in October with a high of 46" in recent years.

Our local WU station records only go back 7 years, and longer term records are generally not published on the internet. However, I'm confident the Canal Zone and large sugar cane, pineapple and coffee plantations have records that go further back.

After two low years of low rainfall ("only" 107 inches and 115 inches respectively in 2012 and 2013) we've had hit hydro-electric limits in the spring at the end of the dry season, and hydro is the bulk of Panama's electrical power. It will be interesting to see where the upcoming May-October rainy season takes us, especially if there is a big El Niño.

I also have not researched the effect of major ENSO events on Panama, but will do so sometimes soon and post my findings here as a comment - or write blog entry if it's a lot of info. I'm curious about the past El Nñio years here - especially the 1997-98 major one.


Yeah well, Panama doesn't count, that's in another league rainfall wise :)
East Coast Winter Storm: Blizzard Conditions Confirmed in Eastern New England; Hurricane-Force Winds Batter Canada Published: Mar 26, 2014, 7:36 PM EDT

•Powerful low pressure off the East Coast is moving northeastward

•Minimum central pressure: 955 millibars (28.20 inches) at 5 p.m. EDT Wednesday

•Snow ends Wednesday night in New England; major blizzard in Atlantic Canada

•Peak gusts of 83 mph reported in Massachusetts; 115 mph in Atlantic Canada; 119 mph offshore

New England and Canada

•New England timing: Snow ends in eastern Maine Wednesday evening.


•Snow totals: Additional amounts of 1 to 2 inches Wednesday evening in Downeast Maine. Much higher amounts in Atlantic Canada.


•Wind impact: Winds will be slow to diminish over eastern New England Wednesday night; parts of Cape Cod and Downeast Maine may still be gusting to 40 mph by Thursday morning.

•Canadian impacts: A major blizzard is underway across portions of the Canadian provinces of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, and Newfoundland. Sustained winds of 40 to 70 mph have been reported in many areas, and wind gusts of 60 to 80 mph are occurring in many places as well. Gusts over 100 mph have been reported in terrain-enhanced wind zones (the Cape Breton area of Nova Scotia and Wreckhouse


Quoting 1010. StormTrackerScott:
I am beginning to wonder if we will have a tornado season.
severe weather coming soon on Thursday and friday
Driest time of the year for FL but yet the models are showing this in April.

Wednesday, March 26: buzy day!!
•Wind gust to 82 mph reported on Nantucket Island Wednesday morning. Gust to 71 mph reported on Cape Cod in Harwichport, Mass.
•Heavy snow and 1/4 mile visibility reported on Cape Cod, Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard Wednesday morning.
•Blizzard conditions were achieved on Martha's Vineyard Wednesday morning.
•As of midday Wednesday, Nantucket reported 9.5 inches of snow.
•Coastal flooding in Plymouth, Mass. and on Nantucket Island.
•Tree branches and power lines down on Cape Cod and Nantucket as well as throughout the Boston metropolitan area.
•NOAA buoy 44027, located 23 miles southeast of Jonesport, Maine, reported a wind gusts of 119 mph at 1:49 p.m. EDT Wednesday.
•In Canada, a sustained wind of 70 mph and a gust of 107 mph was reported at Grand Etang, Nova Scotia, Wednesday afternoon.
•Wreckhouse, Newfoundland, reported a peak gust of 115 mph with sustained winds as high as 87 mph early Wednesday evening.
•Several other Nova Scotia locations reported sustained winds above 60 mph and gusts over 80 mph.
Quoting 796. HurricaneCamille:


A hurricane as intense as hurricane Camille would never make its way this far North though so i'm not exactly worried about it. Camille was such a compact little monster.

In my experience though a powerful Nor'Easter can be worse than a category 1 hurricane.



It depends on how you define "powerful Nor'Easter" which is too broad. If you are referring to a system this deep then ye, but there are many a number of powerful Nor'Easters that fall well short of even a lower hurricane.

Occasionally though you see these happen though, which happen more often in the northeast pacific and northeast Atlantic.
Quoting 1014. StormTrackerScott:
Driest time of the year for FL but yet the models are showing this in April.




Other sing of el Nino is coming
Quoting 974. washingtonian115:
I will ask for a return to warmer weather but not before seeing a record broken in April.


OK a mild April with record low standard deviation for temperature fit to a line with a slope of 1F/3days.
Quoting 966. washingtonian115:

As you can see in the shade of darker blue near my house I had recorded 4 inches and it seems others in N.W D.C did as well.Which brings my seasonal snow to 64 inches.I talked to my neighbor and they said they can't believe they recorded so much for the winter.I would have never imagine the same if you'd asked me in December.Because the winter didn't look very promising then.I was hoping for a switch and the switch happened in early January.


I noticed quite a bit more (another inch) in Takoma Park than at my own home in Riverdale MD
Quoting 1010. StormTrackerScott:
I am beginning to wonder if we will have a tornado season.


Yes.


I'm here to answer all of the tough questions :-)
Quoting 983. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


to be honest the latest acc. snow I have seen in Toronto is mid april so it can happen

only good thing it normally melts 2 days after it happens which will be good


April 6 1982, classic Northeaster Princeton NJ 6" increasingly dry powder. 28F for high April 7 under full sun.

April 19, 1983 Central NJ (Plainsboro, 4 miles east of Princeton). Slush on roads

April 27, 1978 Blacksburg VA. 4" heavy dense slop (18" of
real snow above 3000 feet. (This survived to May 1)



1022. ncstorm
Good evening..

Dr. Greg Forbes
2 hours ago
I've changed TORCON for tomorrow, keeping a 5 for Missouri, but dropping to 3 to 4 for south IA. It looks like the instability might not be enough to give a tornado in south IA.



1023. ncstorm
Day 3

Hey guys! Try to come up with a name for this storm.
Quoting 1014. StormTrackerScott:
Driest time of the year for FL but yet the models are showing this in April.




FL and CA all most have the same kind of weather other then FL dos not have MT.and they don't get snow So I was wanting two no if this storm that the gfs is showing. For FL in the driest time of year in FL with a super strong EL Nino coming could we se some in simmer two CA in AUG or SEP? CA may have a vary short summer this season


Pic: Tornado warned storm in California via @buttewxspotter


Pic: funnel cloud north of Sacramento airport via @laffeyc #cawx
At 5:43pm PDT, spotters confirmed a "dangerous tornado" in a rural area between Willows and Glenn, CA drifting ESE

@weatherchannel
Quoting 896. Skyepony:

Looking at that ascat posted back there the strongest winds are on the backside or SW quadrant pretty close to center...


That ascat didn't come out to the public normal. The evening one had a broader area of white than normal too. Nothing new on oscat~ that is still down. Been a bad winter for our scattermeters..




Yes the strongest winds are by far on the backside, that is because strong high pressure is quickly building in up against it forming a dramatic pressure gradient.What most people forget is the difference between wind maximum in a tropical cyclone as apposed to a non-tropical one.

Tropical cyclones deepen in a warm secluded near or entirely saturated atmospheric column such that deep convection can release tremendous latent heat with little heat loss due to the lack of evaporative cooling found in typical convective situations. This energy release provides more energy for more convection, the rising air from the repetitive deep convection causes air pressure to drop, while simultaneously the latent being release allows an upper anticyclone to form providing upper divergence for the convection and the mechanism for the sinking descending air in the eye and thus forming an organized eyewall.

Because of this, winds will be strongest where convection is the strongest in a tropical system, while areas that remain rain free long enough will see a spin-down through friction(known as Fdissipation in meteorology terms).
Given this, the wind maximum will predictably be in the tight inner core with hurricanes.


This is not so with extra-tropical cyclones. Where the wind maximum will be is complicated, and variable. An extratropical cyclone, since it develops and deepens due to a divergence max aloft from jet dynamics above a strong temperature gradient at the surface, winds are not strongest near the center. In fact winds also can vary substantially with the same level pressure between different systems depending on how the low interacts with other pressure systems, is there sufficient mixing from winds to mix down to the surface, etc.


Even though this is a very deep low, not every extratropical low will have winds so amazingly strong, we can thank a strong arctic high quickly building in to its west, leading to an insanely tight pressure gradient.

The lack of wind to the east shows how this is the case, as the pressure gradient is much weaker here given the lack of a high being approached. If a strong high was to the east, the wind maximum would instead be to the east. Likewise, if there was no substantial high anywhere near the low, winds overall would be much weaker.

Tropical systems wind field size can be enhanced also due to a nearby high. However, tropical systems usually don't interact with strong surface highs in tropical regions, and they don't depend on such situations to produce very tight pressure pradients, given that they are not frontal systems, that and a number of a other reasons I won't get into.
Still though, my post is a but lengthy, but my goal is point out that how we expect and understand of wind produced by hurricanes and Nor'Easters is substantially different and have to be approached differently.



Tornado near Willows CA RT @ButteWxSpotter: @NWSSacramento
Quoting 959. bluenosedave:


Well it's no White Juan as far as snowfall is concerned. It's hard to tell with all the drifting, but I'd say we have 30cm here in Yarmouth; we got just over 100cm from Juan (Someone on Twitter came up with the hashtag #Juanabe, which is now my official name for the storm.)

OTOH, the winds have been just as strong as 10 years ago, and my barometer bottomed out at 960mb around 3pm; it's just now starting to rise again.



Be careful what you ask for......
strongest winds right now! :\
Quoting 1025. Tazmanian:



FL and CA all most have the same kind of weather other then FL dos not have MT.and they don't get snow So I was wanting two no if this storm that the gfs is showing. For FL in the driest time of year in FL with a super strong EL Nino coming could we se some in simmer two CA in AUG or SEP? CA may have a vary short summer this season


FL and CA most certainly don't have same kind of weather Taz :)

Also, weather in each state varies from place to place quite a bit, for example, the northwest panhandle of FL is a decent amount different than south Florida.

California weather varies dramatically as well, most of Southern California is arid desert or nearly so. Central CA is dry to average, depending on location, and northern CA is much different, cool, and quite wet.
Hmmm.... Storm just north of Sacramento looks like it might try to pull something as its headed towards more populous areas
Link
Live coverage from Sacramento
Quoting 1034. Doppler22:
Hmmm.... Storm just north of Sacramento looks like it might try to pull something as its headed towards more populous areas
any reports of hail the size of melons yet

Quoting 1032. Dragod66:
strongest winds right now! :\


Hope you don't lose power

Quoting 1037. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
any reports of hail the size of melons yet



Haven't heard any sizes yet
Quoting 1019. georgevandenberghe:


I noticed quite a bit more (another inch) in Takoma Park than at my own home in Riverdale MD
How much snow did you measure at your house for the season?.
Quoting 1038. Doppler22:


Hope you don't lose power



Haven't heard any sizes yet


I hope I do! A tech break would be nice! Plus Im prepared!
Beale AFB, CA (KBBX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)
Sacramento, CA (KDAX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

Just watched the funnel near Sacramento get close to the ground and then die again. Kind of cool :p
NFL news!! Rule changes


1. The New England Patriots' proposal to extend the goal posts five feet has passed. Let's just call this "The Adam Carolla Rule."

"It just made sense," Dallas Cowboys coach Jason Garrett told Around the League's Marc Sessler. It passed "relatively easily."

2. The "NaVorro Bowman Rule" was passed. That allows the officials to make the recovery of a loose ball in the field of play a reviewable call. This loophole was exposed when Bowman clearly recovered a ball in the NFC Championship Game last year, but the play couldn't be under review.

3. The game clock will now continue after a quarterback sack outside of two minutes
Lol I like the trolliness of mother nature, giving Cali the torns! oh well, next month is a whole different story!
0.5" hail Keep
1048. Dakster
Quoting 1037. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
any reports of hail the size of melons yet



I hope not. That would leave a mark if you got hit by one.


St. John's Int'l Airport
Date: 10:52 PM NDT
Wednesday 26 March 2014
Condition:Light Freezing Rain
Pressure:29.7 inches
Tendency:falling
Visibility:0.7 miles
Temperature:29.3°F
Dewpoint:28.6°F
Humidity:97%
Wind:ESE 36 gust 46 mph
Wind Chill: 13
Roseville Fire Company is responding to possible damage from tornado
Quoting 1037. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
any reports of hail the size of melons yet



okay ill bite...

I think they are a decent C cup! :P
xx/xx/xx


From n'ern cell SW of Chico CA MT @MIDSCAR Picture shot earlier from David Plank as it tore through an orchard!

@USTornadoes
Interesting day, the day started off with the most powerful Nor'Easter ever (If we can even call it a Nor'Easter)...and ends with Tornadoes :P
Quoting 1054. RyanSperrey:
Interesting day, the day started off with the most powerful Nor'Easter ever (If we can even call it a Nor'Easter)...and ends with Tornadoes :P

I don't know about most powerful Nor'Easter ever but def a strong one
Quoting 1047. Doppler22:


is that shopped
*sorry for my very active posting* :p

Not tornado related but,

A RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 33 DEGREES WAS SET AT
WASHING DULLES DC TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 35 SET IN
1971.
Quoting 1052. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
xx/xx/xx


kinda breaking down
Quoting 1056. nwobilderburg:


is that shopped

i don't know
Quoting 1059. Doppler22:

i don't know


probably not... just unexpected from california
Quoting 1058. nwobilderburg:


kinda breaking down
holding steady getting push along see the shift across west new Brunswick sw nova scotia

clearing by dawn
Wu still has me somewhere out in Kansas xD.
April begins next week.Pouring Rain. Beginning this Friday. Coming to a theater near you.
1065. Dakster
Quoting 1064. Climate175:
April begins next week.


And that means what?

April showers bring May flowers?
1066. Gearsts
Quoting 1065. Dakster:


And that means what?

April showers bring May flowers?
NOPE THINK AGAIN!
1068. Dakster
Quoting 1067. Climate175:
NOPE THINK AGAIN!


NOAH, the movie comes out?
Apparently the rear windows of some homes and a fence have been blown apart/blown down in the city of Roseville. NWS will confirm whether it was a tornado or not. Nobody was injured.
Quoting 1068. Dakster:


NOAH, the movie comes out?
Got your animals two by two i see.
1071. Dakster
Quoting 1070. Climate175:
Got your animals two by two i see.


I just hope someone smacks those two mosquitos this time around.
Models latching on to possible snow event next week (This up coming Sunday to be exact).Spring may be here but Jack frost refuses to leave.
Quoting 1063. washingtonian115:
Wu still has me somewhere out in Kansas xD.


You have Sprint?
I think I am done with the tornado postings now. All warnings have expired and with the sun going down the storms are losing energy. Sorry if my posts got annoying :)
It was kind of fun to watch that station and follow their vehicle and copter. Well, it was till the Station flaked out....
So, tonight had been a good one. Two senior employees from AccuWeather came to Asheville, NC tonight just to talk to me and few others about maybe working for AccuWeather one day. I got to say AccuWeather earned a lot of respect from me for what they are actually doing other than forecasting for individual cities. Even though their products can be questionable, you got to admit they do work very hard on what they are doing. Also, AccuWeather is much, much bigger than I realized too...
Quoting 1072. washingtonian115:
Models latching on to possible snow event next week (This up coming Sunday to be exact).Spring may be here but Jack frost refuses to leave.
wet
snow and rain in the forecast with temps rising too 50f on fri with periods of rain and a spring push
1078. Patrap
Can you translate dat for us Cajuns,

thanx
Quoting 1078. Patrap:
Can you translate dat for us Cajuns,

thanx
typing to fast the keyboard missed a few letters
Quoting 1053. Doppler22:


From n'ern cell SW of Chico CA MT @MIDSCAR Picture shot earlier from David Plank as it tore through an orchard!

@USTornadoes


Severe thunderstorms and Tornadoes in California, but none in the southern plains or the deep south, and its the end of March?

A wee bit atypical, I'd say.
Quoting 1039. washingtonian115:
How much snow did you measure at your house for the season?.


I haven't added it up because I didn't record all of it.
Sorry. However I did not get nearly as much as you did.
1082. SuzK
Link

With the talk here and everywhere about the 'sudden' re-appearance of El Nino, this article reminds us that the original build up of heat was in the spawning grounds of Typhoon Haiyan last fall. The winds that brought and held that heat in place have subsided, and what is emerging is a monster kelvin wave...and perhaps a 'super' El Nino. Stay tuned, it only gets better from here!
Quoting 1076. Bluestorm5:
So, tonight had been a good one. Two senior employees from AccuWeather came to Asheville, NC tonight just to talk to me and few others about maybe working for AccuWeather one day. I got to say AccuWeather earned a lot of respect from me for what they are actually doing other than forecasting for individual cities. Even though their products can be questionable, you got to admit they do work very hard on what they are doing. Also, AccuWeather is much, much bigger than I realized too...


Accuweather may be a little bold with their forecasts, but as a private company I don't see it as a problem.

The NWS as the weather authority has a responsibility or almost a burden to provide the most sound forecast to keep the public safe, and so they don't have the freedom a private company could because of this responsibility. They don't have any real forecast rules, as you notice, individual offices do disagree. However, working for the NWS, it would be hard to not to take on that perspective of forecasting, knowing what's at stake.

I sometimes laugh at Accuweather's bold predictions, but again they are a company, so there's nothing wrong with going outside of the consensus a little. Sometimes it is a good call with fringe forecasts when the models are in low confidence. Debby is such an example where bold, non-consensus forecasting tends to prevail, well at least one solution of many possible outcomes anyway, lol.
Quoting 1068. Dakster:


NOAH, the movie comes out?


it was the aliens
1085. Patrap
2014, the Year the Warmer Global Climate Strikes Back

Quoting 1051. Dragod66:


okay ill bite...

I think they are a decent C cup! :P



Nope!
1087. Patrap
..and all this Peace has been deceiving,...

Quoting 1083. Jedkins01:


Accuweather may be a little bold with their forecasts, but as a private company I don't see it as a problem.

The NWS as the weather authority has a responsibility or almost a burden to provide the most sound forecast to keep the public safe, and so they don't have the freedom a private company could because of this responsibility. They don't have any real forecast rules, as you notice, individual offices do disagree. However, working for the NWS, it would be hard to not to take on that perspective of forecasting, knowing what's at stake.

I sometimes laugh at Accuweather's bold predictions, but again they are a company, so there's nothing wrong with going outside of the consensus a little. Sometimes it is a good call with fringe forecasts when the models are in low confidence. Debby is such an example where bold, non-consensus forecasting tends to prevail, well at least one solution of many possible outcomes anyway, lol.
Also, they are private forecasters which could do a lot better for companies than looking up NWS forecast anyway. NWS got to focus on large amount of area while AccuWeather could use a forecaster to focus on one area at the time and gives the forecast to companies.
Quoting 989. MAweatherboy1:

As a follow-up to this, sadly, two very brave Boston firefighters lost their lives in the line of duty battling that massive blaze this afternoon.


as always nothing but love & respect for them all
Quoting 1072. washingtonian115:
Models latching on to possible snow event next week (This up coming Sunday to be exact).Spring may be here but Jack frost refuses to leave.
You didn't think it would end Sunday, did you? Washi, Washi, Washi.... ;)

Right click on image to expand.

Time to Close UP Shop. Stay Safe - Stay Warm - Spring is Coming Soon as the order comes in.
Let's take a closer look. Right click on images to expand.















can we get it within 190 hours before giving it any weight please??? tomorrows 12z will be completely different...
Oh, c'mon. It's fun!
Quoting 1050. Doppler22:
Roseville Fire Company is responding to possible damage from tornado


I lived in Roseville a few years back. Hope everybody's OK.
Quoting 1071. Dakster:


I just hope someone smacks those two mosquitos this time around.



The big, late night philosophical question is...

drum rolls...

How were social insects brought on the ark, like bees, wasps and ants?

2 colonies, or just two queens? Or one Queen and a Drone each?

:)
Quoting 933. hurricanes2018:
I bet watch for the Super El Nino this summer
This year is going to get interesting.
Quoting 1037. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
any reports of hail the size of melons yet


Honorable Estranged Husband lives just off the US50 Bradshaw exit. I just pinged him to ask what he got out of the storm.
Quoting 1096. Jedkins01:



The big, late night philosophical question is...

drum rolls...

How were social insects brought on the ark, like bees, wasps and ants?

2 colonies, or just two queens? Or one Queen and a Drone each?

:)


'Social' insects had wings, didn't need a boarding pass.

Even queens and drones. But humanity itself was crimped to about 15,000 people not too many millenia go. It's really quite amazing we made it through.
Not our pasture (note the open gate) but about a smidge over a mile from ours. Our specific area is dry-slotted nearly all the time when storms swing through, but long as the precip makes it into the water table we're happy enough.



There was a real solid-looking storm cell a few miles north-northeast of the farm, but I didn't get a shot of that. It looked like a nice monsoon for whoever was getting it, and the winds around it were brushing by, really yanking all the pollen tufts off the cottonwoods.

Beautiful stars overhead, but looks like more rain clouds moving in from the west. Mr. Crazyhead the rooster is pretty quiet, I think he feels it coming too.
Quoting 1099. redwagon:


'Social' insects had wings, didn't need a boarding pass.

Even queens and drones. But humanity itself was crimped to about 15,000 people not too many millenia go. It's really quite amazing we made it through.


Not ants :)

1102. guygee
Quoting 934. wxmod:


I believe that whole country was clearcut over a hundred years ago. It is very close to a mill town and it is unlikely that it was not cut over because nobody (almost) talked about the environment a hundred years ago. There is an old road base to the north directly next to the slide. The whole area is known for intense landslides. The whole area for miles around has been modified from it's pre-logging condition. That has changed all the water flow and holding characteristics of the soil, the silt content of the river, the water level in the river, etc. On top of the old clearcutting, more recent clearcuts are evident all over the place along with their access roads. From the pre-slide satellite photo, I believe there is an access road right at the bottom of the landslide. I'm sure the locals will be talking about this at length.
From the Seattle Times:
State allowed logging on plateau above slope

"In recent decades the state allowed logging — with restrictions — on the plateau above the Snohomish County hillside that collapsed in last weekend’s deadly mudslide."

Hypothesis: If a steep slope is clear-cut it will de-stabilize the mountainside and may set up a chain of events where repeated slides prevent sufficient reforestation to re-stabilize the area.

Another anecdotal story recently reprinted from a 1996 article co-authored by the late journalist Alexander Cockburn: "Logging and Landslides: When Clearcuts Kill"
Excerpt:
"When the first big winter rains hit Humboldt County in 1996, the Mattole River, which runs past Cockburn’s door, rose like a rocket. Within a couple of days, his house was cut off. To the west, the river was two feet over the road; 200 yards to the east, a landslide poured 30-feet of dirt over the road.

It’s the landslide that concerns us here. The steep slope above the road was logged in 1993. Many of us had protested that taking the trees would cause slides.

The California Department of Forestry said there was nothing it could do because the owner, a man from Oregon, had invoked emergency salvage regulations after the 1992 Petrolia earthquake. The only recourse would be to sue the owner after he had logged. The logging went ahead. The owner picked up his money, sold the property and returned to Oregon. The hillside has been sliding ever since. Last week, most of the hill-face came down. The bill for the county will probably add up to several hundred thousand dollars."
[...]


norcal gets some drought relief, i guess
:/


long range

Quoting 1103. nwobilderburg:


norcal gets some drought relief, i guess
:/


Oh heckyeah. Not just NorCal; I'm hoping the next two waves after this get enough snowpack that Northern Nevada's TCID* bumps up our irrigation from its current 40% of water rights.

*Truckee-Carson Irrigation District
Quoting 1101. Jedkins01:


Not ants :)



Yes, ants drone, too. When the carrying capacity ratio goes negative, potential queens and drones are forced out of the hives, flying off. They drop their wings as soon as they find a nice spot. Usually in your pool.
Quoting 1106. redwagon:


Yes, ants drone, too. When the carrying capacity ratio goes negative, potential queens and drones are forced out of the hives, flying off. They drop their wings as soon as they find a nice spot. Usually in your pool.



Of course, but its only temporary.

I used to collect and study social insects heavily when I was a kid, you don't want to debate me about insects, trust me :)


looks pretty good... seems like Washington had been taking all the rain that California would have got
1109. Gearsts
Quoting 1109. Gearsts:


well looks like super el-nino is here
1112. LargoFl
Good Morning!...............................
1113. LargoFl
7-day Tampa bay area...........................
1114. barbamz
Short hello from sunny Germany. I hope all the Canadians in the East of their country are still alive, safe and well despite of the amazing blizzard!

Not sure whether this has been posted already: TRMM got a better rival:



--------------------

Sideglance to the Mediterranean (Greece), dealing with low "Jutta":

From the discussion of Estofex:

During the day, the Mediterranean trough will slowly approach from the west. A strong mid-level jet streak will spread into central Greece and later into the central Aegean Sea. DCVA and warm air advection will provide QG lift. At low levels, south-easterly winds will continue to advect moisture into Greece and the northern Aegean Sea region. Best moisture with mixing ratios near 9 g/kg according the GFS will be located in a narrow band just ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. Within this band, GFS indicates almost no capping due to strong lift and rich low-level moisture. Thunderstorms have already formed along the cold front over southern Italy.

Current thinking is that the storms ahead of the cold front will continue eastward today, affecting Greece in the noon hours and the central and northern Aegean Sea in the afternoon or evening. East of this convection, capping is expected to limit thunderstorm potential. Best chances will remain over the north Aegean region, where current storms may go on until the afternoon.

Strong vertical wind shear will result in well-organized convection. A line of storms is expected in the western portions, whereas multicells and supercells are forecast across the Aegean Sea that will merge to a cluster or MCS later on. Main threat will be severe winds with the convective line across western Greece, whereas large hail will be most likely in the southern portions due to the steeper lapse rates in the hail growth zone. Due to the strong low-level vertical wind shear, tornadoes are forecast as well, with the highest potential across the north Aegean region and north-western Turkey, and even a strong event is not ruled out. Convective activity will go on until the morning hours across western Turkey.






I think we are done with the 70s (I hope not) for highs for the rest of the year down here.
It felt so nice yesterday afternoon with those cool breezes and temps in the 70s with low humidity.

7 Day for Fort Myers
Quoting 1035. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Thanks for your maps, I look forward to viewing them daily!!
1117. VR46L
Good Morning Folks !!!

Storm moving into the Mid Atlantic now ,
Quoting 1073. PedleyCA:


You have Sprint?
I have comcast.
Quoting 1093. watchingnva:
can we get it within 190 hours before giving it any weight please??? tomorrows 12z will be completely different...
I'm not saying it'll happen.What I'm saying is that the pattern is supporting more cold even into April.It's not uncommon to get snow in April...
1119. StormWx
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Driest time of the year for FL but yet the models are showing this in April.



Cant complain about the wet weather during our dry season. I'd rather have lush green grass than a bad fire season. No drought here in FL either which is a good thing brah.

1120. ncstorm
today..






1121. ncstorm
Day 2


Day 3


look to be an active day 3 days for severe weather..
1122. beell
From a link contained in a link posted in Doc's post.

‘Unforeseen’ risk of slide? Warnings go back decades/Yakima Herald 03/24/14
1123. ncstorm
Dr. Greg Forbes Torcon Index

Thursday, March 27

Severe thunderstorms in southern Iowa, eastern Kansas, Missouri, west-central and southern Illinois, Arkansas, northern and western Louisiana, east Texas (east of I-35). TOR:CON - 5 MO; 4 AR, northeat TX, southeast OK, northwest LA; 2 to 3 rest of area mentioned

TOR:CON details:
AR - 4
IA south - 3 to 4
IL west-central, south - 3
KS east - 2 to 3
LA northwest - 4
LA southwest - 2 to 3
LA northeast - 3
MO - 5
OK northeast - 2 to 3
OK southeast - 4
TX northeast - 4
TX upper coastal - 2 to 3
Friday, March 28

Scatttered severe thunderstorms in southwest Tennessee, northwest and west-central Alabama, north, central and southwest Mississippi, north, central and southwest Louisiana, east Texas, Arkansas, and southeast Oklahoma. TOR:CON - 4 southwest AR, northeast TX, northwest LA; 3 for areas of MS, AL mentioned above

TOR:CON details:
AL northwest, west-central - 3
AR southwest - 4
AR southeast, central - 3
AR north - 2
LA northwest - 4
LA northeast, central, southwest - 3
MS north, central, southwest - 3
OK southeast - 2 to 3
TN southwest - 2 to 3
TX northeast - 4
TX southeast - 3
Saturday, March 29

Isolated severe thunderstorms in south and east-central North Carolina, South Carolina, northeast, central and south Georgia, Florida panhandle, and northeast Florida. TOR:CON - 3 SC, southeast NC; 2 rest of area mentioned
1125. beell

(click for larger image)

....There have been and is ongoing debate regarding clear cut harvest and water infiltration into deep-seated glacial sediments in part triggered by this slide but also another set of slides in deep steep canyons elsewhere nearby. In this case, I will offer an opinion that the river erosion at the toe is the big driver of slope instability...

...LiDAR is a great tool for assessing landslides. The bare earth images have made mapping large landslides and large landslide deposits an office exercise with focused field trips.

The smallish red marked area on the right is my estimate of the active slide area. I did not include the deposition area of the slide as I don't have a good image yet, but can say that the deposit extended clear across SR530 on the map.

The larger red outlined area in the central portion of the image is from a much larger slide. The deposit area from that slide was even bigger than what is indicated, but the southern end has been eroded and removed by the river. It would be very interesting to know how old this slide is. And also might be informative to look at the geometry of the headwall area...


Dan McShane is an engineering geologist with Stratum Group, a geology and environmental consulting company based in Bellingham, Washington.
If the trees had a good 2 week warm spell they would be fully bloomed by now.Instead it looks like they're fighting a losing battle.I kinda feel sorry for these allergy causing leeches.
1127. LargoFl
Quoting 1119. StormWx:


Cant complain about the wet weather during our dry season. I'd rather have lush green grass than a bad fire season. No drought here in FL either which is a good thing brah.

YES Rain wise its been great during our dry season.
1128. LargoFl
1129. LargoFl
wet weekend for the east coast states..........


This is a contour plot of helicity which is the amount of storm relative rotation/shear in the atmosphere. Helicity is used to indicate where rotation/shear is high enough to allow thunderstorms to organize into severe or supercell storms. In the lack of helicity, storms develop vertically and the precipitation will snuff out the updraft killing the thunderstorm. Severe storms need helicity to maintain an organized structure allowing the storm to develop to severe limits. A value of 400-500 is often needed to produce severe storms. Often this is used in conjunction with CAPE to determine severe storm location.
I'm hoping for a moderate el nino..A strong one will pretty much kill any chance of a meaningful snowy winter.
Quoting 1131. washingtonian115:
I'm hoping for a moderate el nino..A strong one will pretty much kill any chance of a meaningful snowy winter.
next winter we will need an umbrella instead of a shovel
Here was the forecast from the Farmers Almanac..

If you believe it, residents of the Plains to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast may want to start stocking up on warm weather gear, snow shovels, and salt right now! The Farmers%u2019 Almanac is calling for a %u201Cbitterly cold%u201D winter for much of the region.

It was cold..it was snowy..and salt and shovels around the area were very hard to find as stores ran short.I mean a broken clock is right twice a day..right?.
1134. StormWx
Hot off the press.



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