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February 2014: Earth's 21st Warmest February on Record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:36 PM GMT on March 20, 2014

February 2014 was the globe's 21st warmest February since records began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), and 17th warmest, according to NASA. Relative to average, February 2014 was Earth's coolest month in two years. February 2014 global land temperatures were the 44th warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 7th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures in February 2013 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 13th or 9th warmest in the 36-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of February 2014 in his February 2014 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for February 2014, the 21st warmest February for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. The majority of the world's land surfaces experienced warmer-than-average monthly temperatures, with record warmth over Far East Russia, Southern Mexico, and Southern Europe. The Midwest U.S. had the largest area of much cooler than average temperatures for any place on the globe. The Northern Hemisphere land was 0.17°C (0.31°F) above average, the 53rd warmest February on record, and coolest February in the past two decades. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .



The two billion-dollar weather disasters of February 2014
Two billion-dollar weather-related disasters hit the Earth during February 2014: Winter Storm Tini in the U.K., which killed 1 and did $1.0 billion in damage, and winter weather and heavy snows in Japan that killed 37 and did $1.2 billion in damage. These two disasters bring the world-wide tally of billion-dollar weather disasters in 2014 to three, according to the February 2014 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield.


Disaster 1. Winter Storm Tini brought extreme winds gusting above 160 kph (100 mph) and flooding to Western Europe February 11 - 13, 2014, killing at least one person and causing $1 billion in damage. The worst damage was in Ireland, Wales and England as hurricane-force winds ripped off portions of roofs, blew down trees, and knocked out power to over 400,000 customers. In this photo, a car sits in flood water besides agricultural buildings on the Somerset Levels near Burrowbridge on February 14, 2014 in Somerset, England. (Photo by Matt Cardy/Getty Images)


Disaster 2. Pedestrians cross a street in the snow in Tokyo on February 15, 2014. The heaviest snow in decades fell across portions of Japan February 8 - 16, 2014, killing 37 and injuring 2,750, mostly in traffic accidents. Tokyo's 27 centimeters (10.6 inches) of snow was the most snow in 45 years. The heavy snow caused widespread residential and commercial damage while also severely disrupting transportation and causing production delays. Total economic losses were expected to approach $1.2 billion. Photo credit: KAZUHIRO NOGI/AFP/Getty Images.

Neutral El Niño conditions continue in the equatorial Pacific
February 2014 featured neutral El Niño conditions in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, but NOAA has issued an El Niño Watch for the summer and fall of 2014, giving a 50% chance that an El Niño event will occur this year. The March 6 El Niño discussion from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center noted that "While all models predict warming in the tropical Pacific, there is considerable uncertainty as to whether El Niño will develop during the summer or fall. If westerly winds continue to emerge in the western equatorial Pacific, the development of El Niño would become more likely. However, the lower forecast skill during the spring and overall propensity for cooler conditions over the last decade still justify significant probabilities for ENSO-neutral. The consensus forecast is for ENSO-neutral to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014, with about a 50% chance of El Niño developing during the summer or fall." None of the El Niño models (updated in mid-February 2014) predict La Niña conditions for peak hurricane season, August-September-October 2014, and 8 of 18 predict El Niño conditions. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C above average or warmer for three consecutive months for an El Niño episode to be declared; sea surface temperatures were -0.4°C from average as of March 17, and have been +0.1 to -0.7°C from average since April 1, 2013. El Niño conditions tend to make quieter than average Atlantic hurricane seasons, due to an increase in upper-level winds that create strong wind shear over the Tropical Atlantic. There have been two major Westerly Wind Bursts over the equatorial Pacific Ocean over the past two months that have helped pushed warm water eastwards towards South America. The most recent of these bursts has now diminished, and there will likely need to be at least one more Westerly Wind Burst in order for a full-fledged El Niño to develop.

Arctic sea ice falls to 4th lowest February extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during February was 4th lowest in the 36-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Temperatures in the Arctic were 4 - 8°C (7 - 14°F) above average for the month. Northern Hemisphere snow cover during February was the 17th largest in the 48-year record.


Figure 2. One of the most astonishing weather disasters of February 2014 was the February 3 ice storm in Slovenia, as seen in this wunderphoto of an ice storm-devastated forest made on February 4, 2014. The tree damage is incredible. Image credit: wunderphotographer domcek.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Not "first!"
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.
Hey Doc you may want to update your blog entry.

WOW!

Unusually Intense El Nino May Lie Ahead, Scientists SayLink

Tony Barnston, the chief forecaster at Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), told Mashable that the odds of an El Nino event developing during the next six months have increased to about 60%, which is up from just over 50% on March 6.

Roundy cautioned that this doesn't necessarily mean that the current event will be stronger than 1997-98 was, but it does raise red flags.
IRI increase chance of El Nino to 60% (Not 50%)
The pictures are funny!...Ironic how the "blue" car is submerged in water and most of the vehicles in the slush and snow are white! LMAO!!
Thanks for the Update Dr. Masters...
"since records began."

Case closed.
7-day tampa bay area................
Quoting 4. StormTrackerScott:
IRI increase chance of El Nino to 60% (Not 50%)




I love how dr m dos not look up new info on El Niño. Be for posting a blog. Has you said it's now up two 60% of El Niño from 50%
winter isnt over up north huh..........
Still Ahead of the Storm: Colorado State University Hurricane Forecast to Continue with Support from Interstate Restoration

Excerpt:

CSU’s Tropical Meteorology Project will issue its initial forecast for the 2014 season on Thursday, April 10. Researchers, who have provided the seasonal projections for 30 years, had announced in November that the forecast would end unless they could raise money to support the project.
Quoting 9. Tazmanian:




I love how dr m dos not look up new info on El Niño. Be for posting a blog. Has you said it's now up two 60% of El Niño from 50%


Maybe he writes his blogs a few days before he post them.
Quoting 8. LargoFl:
7-day tampa bay area................


Your temps are several degrees cooler than here in Orlando.

Quoting 12. StormTrackerScott:


Maybe he writes his blogs a few days before he post them.



May be
7. luvtogolf 3:51 PM GMT on March 20, 2014+0"since records began."

Case closed.



Nah,  mind closed.
first round of tourney starting in 15 minutes. My interest in anything other than basketball is about to disappear.
Quoting 15. Wyote:
7. luvtogolf 3:51 PM GMT on March 20, 2014+0"since records began."

Case closed.



Nah,  mind closed.


You have a closed mind. Too bad for you.
Quoting 17. luvtogolf:


You have a closed mind. Too bad for you.
I don't even know what case is being talked about. I feel left out until I know which dead horse we're beating.
"Doctors Seeing Increase in Vasectomies Ahead of NCAA Tournament
CLEVELAND -- March madness is not only taking place on the basketball court but in some doctor's offices as well.

Many urologists are overrun by patients this time of year because a lot of guys decide to get vasectomies during the basketball tournament.

They do it so they can recuperate over the weekend while watching basketball on TV.
"We see a lot of men who have held off scheduling this until a time of year when they know that they can have some down time when they can watch TV or do something else of interest,%u201D said Dr. Edmund Sabanegh with the Cleveland Clinic.

The procedure only takes about 15 minutes, and afterward the recovery is about 24-hours - just long enough to relax and enjoy some great college hoops. "

Link
Today's drought monitor.

Quoting 11. nrtiwlnvragn:
Still Ahead of the Storm: Colorado State University Hurricane Forecast to Continue with Support from Interstate Restoration

Excerpt:

CSU’s Tropical Meteorology Project will issue its initial forecast for the 2014 season on Thursday, April 10. Researchers, who have provided the seasonal projections for 30 years, had announced in November that the forecast would end unless they could raise money to support the project.


All that money and research and how accurate are their forecasts?
Quoting 20. wxmod:
Today's drought monitor.



I'm in the Red Now, wasn't last time this was posted.
Thanks Dr. Masters.

Note: the "National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)" link takes you to 2013/December. But you can easily select 2014/February on the page.


Thanks Jeff...
Long way to carry a bucket of water.

Quoting 21. Sfloridacat5:


All that money and research and how accurate are their forecasts?


You are free to ignore them.
Quoting 7. luvtogolf:
"since records began."

Case closed.


Let me ask you this, if you were looking to move into a new neighborhood that was built in 1940, but for some reason all records of crime were missing from 1940-1980, but from 1980 to current there was a significant crime increase, would this alarm you or not? Just because the data we have is limited, doesn't mean that data isn't useful.
Quoting 26. nrtiwlnvragn:


You are free to ignore them.


I'm all for research. I also enjoy seeing all the hurricane forecasts put out by different agencies.

But I don't put any trust or confidence in them.

On any given year, if you just go with the averages you'll do just as good or better than these long range forecasts.

IRI increase chance of El Nino to 60% (Not 50%)


Tony Barnston, the chief forecaster at Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), told Mashable that the odds of an El Nino event developing during the next six months have increased to about 60%, which is up from just over 50% on March 6.


i would guess that doc is quoting the official NOAA forecast which is as of now at 50 percent....



Quoting 27. pipelines:


Let me ask you this, if you were looking to move into a new neighborhood that was built in 1940, but for some reason all records of crime were missing from 1940-1980, but from 1980 to current there was a significant crime increase, would this alarm you or not? Just because the data we have is limited, doesn't mean that data isn't useful.


Really? Totally irrelevant.
Sierra ski area today.



Currently 62.5F, There is a layer of high clouds at 20K. The Sun is out right now but that maybe obscured again soon.
Thank you Dr. Masters
2013 Hurricane Season
Actual
13 named (or did the up it to 14?), 2 hurricanes, 0 majors
CSU forecast
18 named, 9 hurricanes, 5 majors

But to CSU's credit most agencies predicted a strong season last year and it ended up being very weak in the Atlantic Basin.



Thanks Doc.
We can measure the forcings that effect the climate. We measure the energy coming in, we measure the energy going out. Every shred of evidence points to AGW.

To quote the American Geophysical Union

"Human‐Induced Climate Change Requires Urgent Action
Humanity is the major influence on the global climate change observed over the past 50 years.
Rapid societal responses can significantly lessen negative outcomes.Human activities are changing Earth’s climate. At the global level, atmospheric
concentrations of carbon dioxide and other heat‐trapping greenhouse gases have increased sharply since the Industrial Revolution. Fossil fuel burning dominates this increase.
Human‐caused increases in greenhouse gases are responsible for most of the observed global average surface warming of roughly 0.8°C (1.5°F) over the past 140 years. Because natural processes cannot quickly remove some of these gases (notably carbon dioxide)from the atmosphere, our past, present, and future emissions will influence the climate
system for millennia.Extensive, independent observations confirm the reality of global warming. These observations show large‐scale increases in air and sea temperatures, sea level, and atmospheric water vapor; they document decreases in the extent of mountain glaciers,snow cover, permafrost, and Arctic sea ice. These changes are broadly consistent with longunderstood physics and predictions of how the climate system is expected to respond to
human‐caused increases in greenhouse gases. The changes are inconsistent with explanations of climate change that rely on known natural influences."
Link
Quoting 35. Sfloridacat5:
2013 Hurricane Season
Actual
13 named, 2 hurricanes, 0 majors
CSU forecast
18 named, 9 hurricanes, 5 majors

But to CSU's credit most agencies predicted a strong season last year and it ended up being very weak in the Atlantic Basin.





I agree that seasonal hurricane forecasts show little to no skill, however they do raise hurricane awareness somewhat and the science can't be advanced if you don't try.
Snow free Tahoe, dry reservoirs and a forest fire. CA drought.


Spring is here 12:57 PM EST!!!!!
Thanks Dr.; those pictures are stunning.

Just noting that it is amazing how much satellite technology has advanced in the last 50 years in terms of the quality and scope of the sensors and cameras.

The eyes in the sky cover the entire globe and we are currently using some of the same technology that is used to study weather, and take pictures and film of weather systems and storms, to locate potential crash debris from the Malaysian flight, in the middle of the Indian Ocean. This also goes for the oceanic current information in terms of tracing the flow of the potential debris.

Weather permitting (no cloud deck overhead to obscure the ocean surface), we will continue to see this type of use in the future to help locate crashes, survivors, missing outdoors men, etc. Amazing technology in our hands and nice to see the major powers (that can afford these type of birds) to lend a hand and "retask" their orbits to cover a particular search area. I think that NOAA uses stationary satellites for the GOES system but their cameras (as opposed to military ones) don't carry the military hardware grade optical systems (as opposed to a weather observation related package) for this type of detailed surface features.

Finally, a Big Thank You to the Aussies for their efforts with the Malaysia Flight.
Quoting 32. wxmod:
Sierra ski area today.

mud boarding season


thanks for lunchtime update
Quoting 40. weatherbro:
Spring is here 12:57 PM EST!!!!!



72 days till cane season
Quoting 39. wxmod:
Snow free Tahoe, dry reservoirs and a forest fire. CA drought.




Yeah. I hope that storm that NWS was writing about in their latest extended forecast amounts to something.
North pole in upper left. MODIS satellite image.


Quoting 45. wxmod:
North pole in upper left. MODIS satellite image.




Quick hitting, quick melting


still dont buy it but it's close




coldest 850mb temps plunge on back end or precip

where the line sets up before the initial precip will matter.
12z CMC is trying to take out the east coast..







and then another one



Quoting 32. wxmod:
Sierra ski area today.



Wish I was there and not here...
Quoting 52. wxmod:


A little shaking going on the west coast.

Keep - Spring got to you yet?
Dorset Park, Toronto, ONTARIO (PWS)
Updated: 1:19 PM EDT on March 20, 2014
Overcast
35.6 °F
Overcast
Windchill: 27 °F
Humidity: 63%
Dew Point: 24 °F
Wind: 12.8 mph from the SW
Wind Gust: 17.4 mph
Pressure: 29.75 in (Rising)
Visibility: 15.0 miles
UV: 2 out of 16
Clouds:
Overcast 2800 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 548 ft

This is Spring?
Quoting 54. PedleyCA:
Dorset Park, Toronto, ONTARIO (PWS)
Updated: 1:19 PM EDT on March 20, 2014
Overcast
35.6 °F
Overcast
Windchill: 27 °F
Humidity: 63%
Dew Point: 24 °F
Wind: 12.8 mph from the SW
Wind Gust: 17.4 mph
Pressure: 29.75 in (Rising)
Visibility: 15.0 miles
UV: 2 out of 16
Clouds:
Overcast 2800 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 548 ft

This is Spring?


It could be from now on...
Quoting 53. Dakster:


A little shaking going on the west coast.

Keep - Spring got to you yet?
its ok its above freezing that's a plus

35.4 but the chill makes it feel mid 20's
Quoting 56. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its ok its above freezing that's a plus

35.4 but the chill makes it feel mid 20's


Ya got till Sunday before it goes wrong again.
Quoting 54. PedleyCA:
Dorset Park, Toronto, ONTARIO (PWS)
Updated: 1:19 PM EDT on March 20, 2014
Overcast
35.6 °F
Overcast
Windchill: 27 °F
Humidity: 63%
Dew Point: 24 °F
Wind: 12.8 mph from the SW
Wind Gust: 17.4 mph
Pressure: 29.75 in (Rising)
Visibility: 15.0 miles
UV: 2 out of 16
Clouds:
Overcast 2800 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 548 ft

This is Spring?
going to try and get that outdoor weather cam up on the roof and working on Saturday
Quoting 21. Sfloridacat5:


All that money and research and how accurate are their forecasts?


Fairly accurate if you don't judge them off a single year. We all messed up that one.
68.8 F and rising.

Schweeet'

Quoting 57. PedleyCA:


Ya got till Sunday before it goes wrong again.
I know Monday morning sunrise temp should be at -15 c there sayin
62. Tirk

Hello everybody,
Since mid February we have a great spring here in Austria, but we sill remember the ice rain which hit our place and especially Slovenja, so thanks Mr. Masters for posting the picture. Here are some great pictures more taken by an Austrian firefighter, who helped out in Postojna/Slovenia:
Link

Quoting 54. PedleyCA:
Dorset Park, Toronto, ONTARIO (PWS)
Updated: 1:19 PM EDT on March 20, 2014
Overcast
35.6 °F
Overcast
Windchill: 27 °F
Humidity: 63%
Dew Point: 24 °F
Wind: 12.8 mph from the SW
Wind Gust: 17.4 mph
Pressure: 29.75 in (Rising)
Visibility: 15.0 miles
UV: 2 out of 16
Clouds:
Overcast 2800 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 548 ft

This is Spring?
its 51.5 F in new haven,conn
NOAA predicts moderate flood potential in Midwest, elevated risk of ice jams; California and Southwest stuck with drought


Excerpt:

According to NOAA’s Spring Outlook released today, rivers in half of the continental United States are at minor or moderate risk of exceeding flood levels this spring with the highest threat in the southern Great Lakes region due to above-average snowpack and a deep layer of frozen ground. Additionally, drought is expected to continue in California and the Southwest.






Video
Updated mid March update of plume of models and probabilities.





Link
Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 9:53 AM PDT on March 20, 2014
Clear
64 °F
Clear
Humidity: 34%
Dew Point: 35 °F
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 29.99 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 4 out of 16
Pollen: 9.20 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 817 ft

Normal is 72/47, 65.3 at my place.
12z JMA



Quoting 29. Sfloridacat5:


I'm all for research. I also enjoy seeing all the hurricane forecasts put out by different agencies.

But I don't put any trust or confidence in them.

On any given year, if you just go with the averages you'll do just as good or better than these long range forecasts.


For the early forecasts yes (Dec/Apr), for the late forecasts (Jun/Aug), not-so-much.
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/seasonal_fo recasts.asp
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Thanks Dr.; those pictures are stunning.

Just noting that it is amazing how much satellite technology has advanced in the last 50 years in terms of the quality and scope of the sensors and cameras.

The eyes in the sky cover the entire globe and we are currently using some of the same technology that is used to study weather, and take pictures and film of weather systems and storms, to locate potential crash debris from the Malaysian flight, in the middle of the Indian Ocean. This also goes for the oceanic current information in terms of tracing the flow of the potential debris.

Weather permitting (no cloud deck overhead to obscure the ocean surface), we will continue to see this type of use in the future to help locate crashes, survivors, missing outdoors men, etc. Amazing technology in our hands and nice to see the major powers (that can afford these type of birds) to lend a hand and "retask" their orbits to cover a particular search area. I think that NOAA uses stationary satellites for the GOES system but their cameras (as opposed to military ones) don't carry the military hardware grade optical systems (as opposed to a weather observation related package) for this type of detailed surface features.

Finally, a Big Thank You to the Aussies for their efforts with the Malaysia Flight.

We can only hope what has been spotted in the satellite is related to MH370. The last aviation weather reports I've been able to get out of the area (which are few and far between) is that there's a storm either in or about to be in the area of the possible debris. The Australian Orions are near the edge of their tactical range, so they won't be able to spend much time on station trying to locate what was seen on satellite, even if the weather was good. My understanding is the nearest ship (HMAS Success) is still three days out. It's a large 17,000 ton underway refueling and replenishment vessel, which is a good thing for staying on station in bad weather. It's also slow, at only about 16 knots normal cruising speed, and 19 knots maximum speed.

The whole issue of satellites is going to be coming to a head in the next five years. Many of the current US satellites are either ending their useful lives or their technology is so old that it's becoming unreliable. We have cut back so much on NASA funding that, whatever satellites we do build, are going to be launched by the Japanese, French, and Chinese. I can just see us going to crowdsourcing for satellite funds. :-(
Quoting Tirk:

Hello everybody,
Since mid February we have a great spring here in Austria, but we sill remember the ice rain which hit our place and especially Slovenja, so thanks Mr. Masters for posting the picture. Here are some great pictures more taken by an Austrian firefighter, who helped out in Postojna/Slovenia:
Link


I'd love to see more pictures of the aftermath of Slovenia's ice storm. My late wife's family is all from the Postanja and Stari trg pri Lo%u017Eu area, and I've been there several times. I couldn't even recognize many of the areas from the ice storm pictures, but I imagine it's much worse now that the ice has melted. Postanja is (was) a really beautiful area, and one a few US tourists have heard of because of the famous Postojna caves.
Updated mid March update of plume of models and probabilities.




wow...only one model showing a super el nino now
Quoting 65. Tropicsweatherpr:
Updated mid March update of plume of models and probabilities.





Link
If we don't get and el nino...
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
going to try and get that outdoor weather cam up on the roof and working on Saturday

At least it's finally above freezing, so those daffodils are getting ready to make their move soon. :-)
disregard
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Quick hitting, quick melting


still dont buy it but it's close




coldest 850mb temps plunge on back end or precip

where the line sets up before the initial precip will matter.

Stormz, give me your forecast for Destin FL for Monday to Friday of next week please. It's not looking like great beach weather to me....
Stormz, give me your forecast for Destin FL for Monday to Friday of next week please. It's not looking like great beach weather to me....
Action: Quote | Ignore User





low to mid 60's....rain on mon and tues.....great fishing weather....man oh man you're lucky :-)

REGARDING THE AMPLIFYING ERN NOAM TROUGH ALOFT AND DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE FCST OVER THE WRN ATLC... THERE ARE IMPORTANT SHRTWV
DETAILS YET TO BE DETERMINED. AT THE MOMENT IT APPEARS THAT A KEY
TIME TO WATCH WILL BE AROUND DAY 3 SUN WHEN SOME OF THE SUPPORTING
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO REACH NRN CANADA TO THE E OF A NWRN/NRN
ALASKA UPR HIGH. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY/SPREAD AS TO
EXACTLY WHAT PROPORTION OF THIS ENERGY CONTINUES SEWD INTO THE ERN
CONUS/SERN CANADA VERSUS CURLING WWD UNDER THE UPR HIGH. THIS
TYPE OF EVOLUTION SOMETIMES CAUSES SIGNIFICANT ISSUES/FCST ERRORS
DOWNSTREAM... SO CONFIDENCE IN PARTICULARS OF SFC DEVELOPMENT OFF
THE EAST COAST BY TUE-WED IS STILL FAIRLY MODEST. ON THE GOOD
SIDE THE CENTER OF ENSEMBLE LOW CLUSTERING HAS BEEN FAIRLY STABLE
OVER THE PAST 2-3 DAYS WITH LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE SERN
COAST BY EARLY DAY 5 TUE AND REACHING JUST E OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK BY WED. SOME CMC RUNS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT W OF THIS
TRACK. THE 00Z GFS MAY BE A LITTLE FAST WHILE THE 06Z GFS/00Z
ECMWF RUNS COMPARE FAIRLY WELL TO CURRENT CONSENSUS. AS A WHOLE
THE ECMWF MEAN HAS BEEN MOST CONSISTENT WITH THE GENERAL WRN ATLC
EVOLUTION WHILE 6-HRLY GEFS MEAN RUNS HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING IN
TRACK/DEFINITION. MOST OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN
SIGNALING POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG SYSTEM BUT HAVE LACKED
CONSISTENCY.

WITH THE ERN PAC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST... MODEL/ENSEMBLE
SPREAD HAS NARROWED SOMEWHAT COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. THE ECMWF
AND EVEN TO A SLIGHT DEGREE ECMWF MEAN HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE
FASTER WHICH IS HARD TO ARGUE WITH GIVEN THE PROGRESSION OF
UPSTREAM FLOW. ON THE OTHER HAND THE AMPLITUDE OF THE DOWNSTREAM
WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH AS WELL AS TENDENCY FOR GFS/GEFS GUIDANCE TO
BE TOO QUICK TO BREAK DOWN AMPLIFIED PATTERNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
A SOLN THAT LEANS MORE TOWARD THE CURRENT ECMWF/ECMWF MEAN. 00Z
CMC/CMC MEAN SOLNS AGREE WITH THIS IDEA. THUS BY DAY 7 THU EXPECT
SFC LOW PRESSURE TO REMAIN NEAR THE HIGH PLAINS RATHER THAN
EXTENDING AS FAR NEWD AS THE 00Z/06Z GFS.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

THE FCST REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR AN UNUSUALLY WINTRY PATTERN
OVER THE CNTRL-ERN STATES DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A BROAD
AREA OF TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES REACHING 10-25F BELOW NORMAL BEFORE
MODERATING BY DAY 7 THU. AT SOME LOCATIONS EXPECTED TEMPS WOULD
BE CLOSER TO MID-JANUARY NORMALS... AND COMPOSITE ANALOGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW FAVORABLE COMPARISONS TO OTHER MID MARCH TO EARLY APRIL
COLD EVENTS OVER RECENT DECADES. THIS COLD AIR WILL SUPPORT A
PERIOD OF WINTRY PCPN POTENTIAL FROM THE NRN/N-CNTRL PLAINS INTO
THE MID ATLC/NORTHEAST. AREAS FROM THE CNTRL APLCHNS/MID ATLC
INTO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR EXPECTED WRN ATLC DEVELOPMENT

TUE-WED FOR SNOW/STRONG WIND POTENTIAL. SMALL CHANGES IN TRACK
WILL MAKE BIG DIFFS IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS AND ORIGIN OF
SUPPORTING ENERGY ALOFT SUGGESTS IT MAY TAKE AT LEAST ANOTHER 2-3
DAYS TO GAIN MORE CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OF SYSTEM EVOLUTION.
BEFORE THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS... ONE AREA OF PCPN WILL CROSS THE
SERN THIRD OF THE CONUS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND SOME LOCATIONS
NEAR THE GULF/SERN COASTS MAY SEE LOCALLY HVY RNFL AROUND MON.
Quoting 32. wxmod:
Sierra ski area today.



Skiers in the East call this "good conditions"

Not quite like the east though in that I don't see a lot of clear hard ice!
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


I'm all for research. I also enjoy seeing all the hurricane forecasts put out by different agencies.

But I don't put any trust or confidence in them.

On any given year, if you just go with the averages you'll do just as good or better than these long range forecasts.


I'm surprised to see that CSU has decided to go with an April forecast. Since their funding is limited and April forecasts have zero precision, why not wait until June, when there's at least a chance that some skill will come into the forecast. I imagine that an April forecast has some media benefits in terms of media exposure, which is why I suspect they've decided to go with the early forecast. I hope it's even close to right, since CSU hurricane forecasts are not going to survive with another blown seasonal forecast.
Quoting 62. Tirk:

Hello everybody,
Since mid February we have a great spring here in Austria, but we sill remember the ice rain which hit our place and especially Slovenja, so thanks Mr. Masters for posting the picture. Here are some great pictures more taken by an Austrian firefighter, who helped out in Postojna/Slovenia:
Link



amazing photo's of a very bad storm ..

Skiers in the East call this "good conditions"

Not quite like the east though in that I don't see a lot of clear hard ice!



that looks like some fine sierra sludge....crusty on top and slushy underneath
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Fairly accurate if you don't judge them off a single year. We all messed up that one.

There are no accurate April forecasts.
Nate Silver's new site, 538, has an article up about billion dollar weather disasters.

Link

I agree with a lot of what Dr Masters writes, but I've long thought that the "billion dollar disasters" line of thought was a little off. It does not count for inflation correctly.
I'm surprised to see that CDU has decided to go with an April forecast. Since their funding is limited and April forecasts have zero precision, why not wait until June, when there's at least a chance that some skill will come into the forecast. I imagine that an April forecast has some media benefits in terms of media exposure, which is why I suspect they've decided to go with the early forecast. I hope it's even close to right, since CSU hurricane forecasts are not going to survive with another blown seasonal forecast.



cdu is praying they're close on this one


APRIL 14th-17th | ORLANDO
THE HILTON ORLANDO



The primary goal of the National Hurricane Conference is to improve hurricane preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation in order to save lives and property in the United States and the tropical islands of the Caribbean and Pacific. In addition, the conference serves as a national forum for federal, state and local officials to exchange ideas and recommend new policies to improve Emergency Management.

To accomplish these goals, the annual conference emphasizes:

Lessons Learned from Hurricane Strikes

State of the art programs worthy of emulation

New ideas being tested or considered

Information about new or ongoing assistance programs
The ABC's of hurricane preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation in recognition of the fact that there is a continual turnover of emergency management leadership and staff.
Quoting 83. Treehorn:
Nate Silver's new site, 538, has an article up about billion dollar weather disasters.

Link

I agree with a lot of what Dr Masters writes, but I've long thought that the "billion dollar disasters" line of thought was a little off. It does not count for inflation correctly.


This article has been heavily criticized already and it's only been out a day. Top climate scientists have pointed out errors in Pielke's article Link and Pielke has a bad history with this as well. Link

Personally, Pielke fails to account for better building design and strength in his data, which makes for a bad time.

It's a shame to see Silver choose Pielke as an author for his site. Given his track record, it is not a good choice, and not a good start for Nate, who I adore. :)
Quoting ricderr:

Skiers in the East call this "good conditions"

Not quite like the east though in that I don't see a lot of clear hard ice!



that looks like some fine sierra sludge....crusty on top and slushy underneath

That's Badger Pass ski area in Yosemite. They closed down on Saint Patrick's day. Badger Pass always has a tough time, even when there's not a drought. It's only at 7,200 feet and has no snowmaking equipment. It's a nice place to go with the family, since most of the mountain is fairly gentle, so a lot of the black diamond crowd doesn't show up. I've been there when there was 100" and when it looks like the picture today.
Quoting 72. Gearsts:
If we don't get and el nino...

Can you imagine if that occurs. But I think is a low chance that El Nino wont come.What is the pending question is how strong it will be.
That's Badger Pass ski area in Yosemite. They closed down on Saint Patrick's day. Badger Pass always has a tough time, even when there's not a drought. It's only at 7,200 feet and has no snowmaking equipment. It's a nice place to go with the family, since most of the mountain is fairly gentle, so a lot of the black diamond crowd doesn't show up. I've been there when there was 100" and when it looks like the picture today.


there's a lot of lesser known ski slopes like that....plus they can be a lot less crowded....i believe it's sugarloaf that grooms an old logging road....gives you about a 1.5 mile run.....just great for enjoying the view
Quoting 83. Treehorn:
Nate Silver's new site, 538, has an article up about billion dollar weather disasters.

Link

I agree with a lot of what Dr Masters writes, but I've long thought that the "billion dollar disasters" line of thought was a little off. It does not count for inflation correctly.
Yeah, we expect Pielke Jr. to put his foot in it quite often--the guy's practically made a career of doing so--but it's sad to see a guy like Silver pick someone with Jr's utter lack of climate science credibility given an audience to write on climate change.
Quoting 40. weatherbro:
Spring is here 12:57 PM EST!!!!!
That's astronomical spring.
Meteorological spring starts on March 1, although you might have a hard time convincing some midwestern and eastern Americans of that.
wow I just came back from Clearwater beach and its Packed...are there any people still up in the northern states and Canada? lol...if not they are all Here!....
Quoting 87. sar2401:

That's Badger Pass ski area in Yosemite. They closed down on Saint Patrick's day. Badger Pass always has a tough time, even when there's not a drought. It's only at 7,200 feet and has no snowmaking equipment. It's a nice place to go with the family, since most of the mountain is fairly gentle, so a lot of the black diamond crowd doesn't show up. I've been there when there was 100" and when it looks like the picture today.


Even if that resort is kind of minimal, it is a lot better than Dodge Ridge which is dirt surfing right now. That is where I used to ski back in the day.
Quoting 92. LargoFl:
wow I just came back from Clearwater beach and its Packed...are there any people still up in the northern states and Canada? lol...if not they are all Here!....


Spring break.
Keesler Hurricane Hunters adding important communication equipment

Excerpt:

Lt. Col. Jon Talbot said the 10 aircrafts are adding Iridium satellite phone systems to ensure constant communication air traffic control.
folks in the eastern coastal states,gfs has quite a storm going up along the coast next week....
The latest Euro shifted a little more westward. If this were to continue, they will likely put up advisories and watches.
On that missing plane story..if it WAS hijacked..is anyone wondering IF..it was the cargo on that plane that someone wanted?..
Quoting 86. Naga5000:


This article has been heavily criticized already and it's only been out a day. Top climate scientists have pointed out errors in Pielke's article Link and Pielke has a bad history with this as well. Link

Personally, Pielke fails to account for better building design and strength in his data, which makes for a bad time.

It's a shame to see Silver choose Pielke as an author for his site. Given his track record, it is not a good choice, and not a good start for Nate, who I adore. :)


Agreed. Pielke's work is not strong either. My point is that dollar figures for disasters are being improperly represented to show weather disasters are getting worse. I expect the cost of the same hurricane, hitting the same exact area, to do more damage today in relative dollars. That's because adjusting for inflation dollars doesn't adjust for increase in population (especially along coastal areas), number of homes, size of homes, vehicles per person, etc.

The insurance companies have incentive to show weather "disasters" are getting more expensive, that way they can reason an increase in premiums that accelerates beyond inflation.

The topic needs more research.
Quoting 97. hydrus:
The latest Euro shifted a little more westward. If this were to continue, they will likely put up advisories and watches.
yeah its going to be a storm up along the coast
Quoting 96. LargoFl:
folks in the eastern coastal states,gfs has quite a storm going up along the coast next week....
They may get a damaging storm. Just what they do not need.
Hey guys just saying that the ITCZ is now fully above 0N



Quoting 65. Tropicsweatherpr:
Updated mid March update of plume of models and probabilities.





Link


Lastly I think for storm season 2014 we will have near neutral ENSO conditions
I sure hope temps are above freezing next week there..
69. sar2401 1:45 PM EDT on March 20, 2014

The satellite issue that no one is discussing in the media (whether missed or at the request of DOD) related to the Malaysian flight is that our highest grade military satellites can actually "see" a person walking down the street/license tags on cars, etc. In other words, our military satts can certainly distinguish (if they get a clear pic) whether debris floating in the ocean is actually from the plane. The problem is that they can never release such pictures to the general public because of security/disclosure issues. Thus, if the military is sending ships or aircraft to the coordinates of the debris, and have released the current "lo-vis" shots to the media, chances are that they have looked up close at it want to take a closer look on the surface.............They probably already determined that it does not look like a cargo container floating out there.
Quoting Naga5000:


This article has been heavily criticized already and it's only been out a day. Top climate scientists have pointed out errors in Pielke's article Link and Pielke has a bad history with this as well. Link

Personally, Pielke fails to account for better building design and strength in his data, which makes for a bad time.

It's a shame to see Silver choose Pielke as an author for his site. Given his track record, it is not a good choice, and not a good start for Nate, who I adore. :)

Yeah, I was a little taken aback by Pielke's article as well. Why did he choose to start his graph in 1990? Munich Re has extremely good data going back to 1980, and data that's not quite as reliable, but good enough, going back to about 1965. Seems odd, to say the least.

On an unrelated but still cogent note, I was in an antique shop yesterday and found a mint condition Heathkit Mohican shortwave receiver. I was all excited because that's the first radio I ever built, way back in 1960. I paid 109.50 for the kit in 10960, a fortune for a 13 year old kid with a paper route, and managed to talk the shop owner down to $70. Just for the heck of it, I decided to check what $109.50 in 1960 is worth 2014 dollars. Guess how much.....


$872.00 ! :-)

It's not hard to understand why even relatively small disaster can rise to a billion dollars just considering replacement value.
Quoting 97. hydrus:
The latest Euro shifted a little more westward. If this were to continue, they will likely put up advisories and watches.
nc wants to build a snowman
Quoting 87. sar2401:

That's Badger Pass ski area in Yosemite. They closed down on Saint Patrick's day. Badger Pass always has a tough time, even when there's not a drought. It's only at 7,200 feet and has no snowmaking equipment. It's a nice place to go with the family, since most of the mountain is fairly gentle, so a lot of the black diamond crowd doesn't show up. I've been there when there was 100" and when it looks like the picture today.
Well, Badger averages 300" of snow a year, so I wouldn't say it "always has a tough time". In fact, over the years 2008-2012 (inclusive), it saw an average of about 150" fall just between January 1 and March 19. But over the past two years (2013 and 2014), it's averaged just 37".

This isn't normal.
The satellite issue that no one is discussing in the media (whether missed or at the request of DOD) related to the Malaysian flight is that our highest grade military satellites can actually "see" a person walking down the street/license tags on cars, etc. In other words, our military satts can certainly distinguish (if they get a clear pic) whether debris floating in the ocean is actually from the plane.


true...but those sats as i understand must be moved into posistion to do so....so then is it worth the cost and other peramiters to do so?....
well we get stormy weather also tues-wens.........
Fort Myers Beach is pretty crowded. We had a slow start today with cloud cover until about lunch time.
I'm off this week for Spring Break. Normally I'd be working hard in the classroom at this time of the day.
Quoting 108. ricderr:
The satellite issue that no one is discussing in the media (whether missed or at the request of DOD) related to the Malaysian flight is that our highest grade military satellites can actually "see" a person walking down the street/license tags on cars, etc. In other words, our military satts can certainly distinguish (if they get a clear pic) whether debris floating in the ocean is actually from the plane.


true...but those sats as i understand must be moved into posistion to do so....so then is it worth the cost and other peramiters to do so?....


You are correct; I do not know if the current satt shot is from a military or civilian bird. If a current military bird in orbit doe not cross that area, it would have to be re-tasked for a different orbit to get a clear shot; not the easiest thing to when you consider how tight it is up there with all the other ones and debris in orbit. However, they can always send up a U-2 over the specific area to get the same result which might be more cost-effective; the costs associated with the specific flight.
12Z Euro and 12Z GGEM models blast Florida with excessive rains Monday & Tuesday and then again Friday & Saturday next week. If this verifies their will likely be some flooding issues across C & N FL. Stay tuned!

The storm train across FL continues.

.
Quoting 99. Treehorn:


Agreed. Pielke's work is not strong either. My point is that dollar figures for disasters are being improperly represented to show weather disasters are getting worse. I expect the cost of the same hurricane, hitting the same exact area, to do more damage today in relative dollars. That's because adjusting for inflation dollars doesn't adjust for increase in population (especially along coastal areas), number of homes, size of homes, vehicles per person, etc.

The insurance companies have incentive to show weather "disasters" are getting more expensive, that way they can reason an increase in premiums that accelerates beyond inflation.

The topic needs more research.
The topic has had a lot of research. I mean, a ton. And the fact is that, completely separate from the dollar amount of resulting property damage, extreme weather events around the globe have been and are increasing in both frequency and severity. Period.
Hopefully we can get some of this rain into S FL next week.



Quoting weathermanwannabe:
69. sar2401 1:45 PM EDT on March 20, 2014

The satellite issue that no one is discussing in the media (whether missed or at the request of DOD) related to the Malaysian flight is that our highest grade military satellites can actually "see" a person walking down the street/license tags on cars, etc. In other words, our military satts can certainly distinguish (if they get a clear pic) whether debris floating in the ocean is actually from the plane. The problem is that they can never release such pictures to the general public because of security/disclosure issues. Thus, if the military is sending ships or aircraft to the coordinates of the debris, and have released the current "lo-vis" shots to the media, chances are that they have looked up close at it want to take a closer look on the surface.............They probably already determined that it does not look like a cargo container floating out there.

My own speculation is the over the horizon radar at Jindalee tracked MH370 and knows where it went below their radar. I'm almost certain it took at least three days of human and computer review to find the presumed track, since that OTH radar installation isn't normally looking for aircraft, but it has the range to do so. That still leaves a couple of thousand square miles to search. The satellite photo may or may not show anything, but the Australians and the US need a plausible way to explain how they've located what I hope is the crash site so relatively quickly. Jindalee is about as secret as a radar installation gets now, and they are not going to release anything that ties MH370 back to Jindalee if they can avoid it. I think (hope) that this data would have been examined and released a lot sooner if we were dealing with a rescue, but it's clearly a recovery operation now, and protecting Jindalee is a big national security issue.
Quoting 106. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
nc wants to build a snowman
PLEASE say it isn't so! It looks like it wants to be a gulf stream runner. Ug.
"tasked" Imaging is NEVER held back by any cost restraints.

Real or imagined.

As per the NRO, The Pentagon, NORAD and other.
Quoting 117. Chapelhill:
PLEASE say it isn't so! It looks like it wants to be a gulf stream runner. Ug.


You mean 2 Gulf runners next week. All with snow potential across NC.
Quoting 108. ricderr:
The satellite issue that no one is discussing in the media (whether missed or at the request of DOD) related to the Malaysian flight is that our highest grade military satellites can actually "see" a person walking down the street/license tags on cars, etc. In other words, our military satts can certainly distinguish (if they get a clear pic) whether debris floating in the ocean is actually from the plane.


true...but those sats as i understand must be moved into posistion to do so....so then is it worth the cost and other peramiters to do so?....


You mean is it worth moving the assets from watching what they are currently watching to go there. And can it get there BEFORE the sats can be moved there. Also do we really want to prove to the world just how high res we can get?
Quoting 114. Neapolitan:
The topic has had a lot of research. I mean, a ton. And the fact is that, completely separate from the dollar amount of resulting property damage, extreme weather events around the globe have been and are increasing in both frequency and severity. Period.


I think we agree then. Showing "billion dollar disasters" is an odd way to show extreme weather events are increasing. Just use the Climate Extreme Index or similar tools to more accurately represent the trend in frequency and severity of severe weather events.
Quoting 115. StormTrackerScott:
Hopefully we can get some of this rain into S FL next week.





A little would be nice... Not 24" in 24 hours though.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


You are correct; I do not know if the current satt shot is from a military or civilian bird. If a current military bird in orbit doe not cross that area, it would have to be re-tasked for a different orbit to get a clear shot; not the easiest thing to when you consider how tight it is up there with all the other ones and debris in orbit. However, they can always send up a U-2 over the specific area to get the same result which might be more cost-effective; the costs associated with the specific flight.

There are really only a few satellites with the kind of capabilities you're talking about. The are normally located in areas where there are high value targets. The South Indian Ocean isn't normally one of those places. I believe the chance of floating debris the size seen by the satellite is more consistent with a couple of containers that went overboard than parts of an aircraft that crashed two weeks ago. As I explained in a previous post, those shots will do to explain whey resources are being shifted into the area. Whether the satellite photo is really the reason for that is something only a few people will ever know...and one of them won't be me. :-)
116. sar2401 3:06 PM EDT on March 20, 2014

Yup; either way, they saw something that gives them a plausible lead. I had lunch yesterday with an old mentor of mine (Retired AF Fighter Pilot/Instructor) for his opinion. He thinks that it was either a fire/event on board that incapacitated the crew or intentional high jack (whether by crew or others)gone bad until the plane ran out of fuel. He thinks the plane is at the bottom of the Ocean somewhere at this point; now it's just a race to try to find the black box. Very sad tragedy all the way around and I hope they find some answers for the Families of the lost ones.
Quoting 119. StormTrackerScott:


You mean 2 Gulf runners next week. All with snow potential across NC.
Yea, NWS Raleigh is thinking that way too. At least we get a few nice day now before we get back into that past season. (I dare not say the word)
Two intern positions available at NHC.

Serves as an intern in the National Weather Service (NWS) Forecaster Development Program. Provides and coordinates weather information, NWS products and assists with warnings and forecasts for the National Hurricane Center.

This position is also being advertised as a Meteorologist Intern, GS-1340-5/7/9 under announcement number NWS-NCEP-2014-0005 (open to status candidates) and as a Meteorological Technician (HMT) GS-1341-11 under announcement number NWS-NCEP-2014-0006 (open to current National Weather Service employees and DOC CTAP only). You must apply separately under each announcement to be considered for each announcement.
127. NCstu
Quoting 99. Treehorn:


Agreed. Pielke's work is not strong either. My point is that dollar figures for disasters are being improperly represented to show weather disasters are getting worse. I expect the cost of the same hurricane, hitting the same exact area, to do more damage today in relative dollars. That's because adjusting for inflation dollars doesn't adjust for increase in population (especially along coastal areas), number of homes, size of homes, vehicles per person, etc.

The insurance companies have incentive to show weather "disasters" are getting more expensive, that way they can reason an increase in premiums that accelerates beyond inflation.

The topic needs more research.
The insurance industry is extremely competitive and prices in some areas are kepy artificially low through government policies. Florida in particular has had artificially low prices ever since Andrew. The same goes for government subsidized flood insurance. I agree that the insurance industry may overhype weather disasters, but I would argue that it is to gain market share. For insurance, more market share means more profits even if prices don't change. That may sound counterintuitive, but it is indeed the case. So when Allstate shows tornado aftermath they are advertising the service aspect of the insurance rather than the financial aspect, i.e. what they do when you actually have a covered loss.

As for what I mean about market share, you see a gazillion ads for car insurance even though car insurance is required. Therefore it isn't about people buying more policies. Same for homeowners insurance.

So in conclusion, all else equal the more insurance people buy, the lower prices are for everyone. Also, insurance companies have an incentive to overhype disasters but only to gain market share.
Quoting LargoFl:
On that missing plane story..if it WAS hijacked..is anyone wondering IF..it was the cargo on that plane that someone wanted?..

If someone wanted the cargo on the plane, it's a lot easier to locate it on the ground, get into the warehouse where it's at, shoot a couple of rent-a-cops, and make off with it. Trying to get a 777 successfully on the ground on some presumably abandoned airfield somewhere and not get caught is the hard way to do it.
Quoting 127. NCstu:
The insurance industry is extremely competitive and prices in some areas are kepy artificially low through government policies. Florida in particular has had artificially low prices ever since Andrew. The same goes for government subsidized flood insurance. I agree that the insurance industry may overhype weather disasters, but I would argue that it is to gain market share. For insurance, more market share means more profits even if prices don't change. That may sound counterintuitive, but it is indeed the case. So when Allstate shows tornado aftermath they are advertising the service aspect of the insurance rather than the financial aspect, i.e. what they do when you actually have a covered loss.

As for what I mean about market share, you see a gazillion ads for car insurance even though car insurance is required. Therefore it isn't about people buying more policies. Same for homeowners insurance.

So in conclusion, all else equal the more insurance people buy, the lower prices are for everyone. Also, insurance companies have an incentive to overhype disasters but only to gain market share.


It is really rare to get a home owners policy not backed by the government in Florida. I have State of Florida Home Owners Insurance.

The only reason now that different insurance companies are coming on board is because the State, right now, gaurantees them a bailout and a loan to get started.

Insurance is a mess in Florida. My policy used to under $3k a year including windstorm, after 2005 it steadily rose to $14k a year. My house haven't gone up that much in value and what they cover now is significantly less... They do not cover screened in patios or sheds. Even if the shed is a hurricane rated structure - only the primary residential building is covered.

Quoting Naga5000:


Spring break.

I just want one halfway decent five days in Destin next week where I don't need my parka....
131. NCstu
I should specify in 127 that my arguments do not necessarily apply to health and life insurance. I don't have any particular knowledge or insight into those industries.

I work in the property and casualty industry and with very few exceptions auto, homeowners, flood, etc. do a major public good, are competitive, and everyone wins when people buy the right amount of insurance.
Quoting 115. StormTrackerScott:
Hopefully we can get some of this rain into S FL next week.





I'll get right on that. We've had quite enough up in the NE corner lately.
I just want one halfway decent five days in Destin next week where I don't need my parka....



just grab a pole and go fishing....weather should be perfect for that.....
134. NCstu
Quoting 129. Dakster:


It is really rare to get a home owners policy not backed by the government in Florida. I have State of Florida Home Owners Insurance.

The only reason now that different insurance companies are coming on board is because the State, right now, gaurantees them a bailout and a loan to get started.

Insurance is a mess in Florida. My policy used to under $3k a year including windstorm, after 2005 it steadily rose to $14k a year. My house haven't gone up that much in value and what they cover now is significantly less... They do not cover screened in patios or sheds. Even if the shed is a hurricane rated structure - only the primary residential building is covered.

again, I should emphasise that it is in an insurance companies best interests to issue as many policies as possible. If the costs are high for you, then it is because the costs are high for them. In fact Solvency II requirements make insurance companies prove that they will be solvent after a catastrophic event. That means that even if they wanted to issue low rate policies they wouldn't be allowed to if the expected losses from the policy are too high.
Quoting 130. sar2401:

I just want one halfway decent five days in Destin next week where I don't need my parka....


Mine was last week. I spent most of it cleaning the house and painting a spare bedroom, but I did get one free day in St. Augustine.

I love working for the college and still getting spring break. I hate that I now have to do adult things during spring break. :)
Quoting 112. StormTrackerScott:
12Z Euro and 12Z GGEM models blast Florida with excessive rains Monday & Tuesday and then again Friday & Saturday next week. If this verifies their will likely be some flooding issues across C & N FL. Stay tuned!

The storm train across FL continues.

Wait until Nino arrives...Florida will look like that all the time during the fall and winter.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
116. sar2401 3:06 PM EDT on March 20, 2014

Yup; either way, they saw something that gives them a plausible lead. I had lunch yesterday with an old mentor of mine (Retired AF Fighter Pilot/Instructor) for his opinion. He thinks that it was either a fire/event on board that incapacitated the crew or intentional high jack (whether by crew or others)gone bad until the plane ran out of fuel. He thinks the plane is at the bottom of the Ocean somewhere at this point; now it's just a race to try to find the black box. Very sad tragedy all the way around and I hope they find some answers for the Families of the lost ones.

I'd place my money on a cascading electrical failure that led to a fire, plus some pilot error in terms of handling the emergency. For some reason, that southern flight path got entered into the FMS, and the plane flew on until it ran out fuel and crashed somewhere to the southwest of Australia. The flight data and cockpit voice recorder will have some really valuable information in terms of preventing something like this in the future.
Quoting Naga5000:


Mine was last week. I spent most of it cleaning the house and painting a spare bedroom, but I did get one free day in St. Augustine.

I love working for the college and still getting spring break. I hate that I now have to do adult things during spring break. :)

It's my fiance's mother's 80th birthday, so it will be fun no matter what. Everyone going down wants to know how warm the weather will be, and I haven't had the heart to tell them what the models are seeing. :-)
Quoting ricderr:
I just want one halfway decent five days in Destin next week where I don't need my parka....



just grab a pole and go fishing....weather should be perfect for that.....

I could grab a pole and pretend to go fishing. Fish know when I'm coming and line up to steal my bait. I swear it's the same fish that follow me no matter where I go. :-)
Quoting 137. sar2401:

I'd place my money on a cascading electrical failure that led to a fire, plus some pilot error in terms of handling the emergency. For some reason, that southern flight path got entered into the FMS, and the plane flew on until it ran out fuel and crashed somewhere to the southwest of Australia. The flight data and cockpit voice recorder will have some really valuable information in terms of preventing something like this in the future.
I was going to ask you what your thoughts were on the situation. The first week I thought it had more than enough red flags to confidently support a highjacking. It was a middle aged jet in my book, but its not the years, its the miles that can make all the difference.
Quoting 136. hydrus:
Wait until Nino arrives...Florida will look like that all the time during the fall and winter.
great my bananna tree's will love this lol
Quoting 137. sar2401:

I'd place my money on a cascading electrical failure that led to a fire, plus some pilot error in terms of handling the emergency. For some reason, that southern flight path got entered into the FMS, and the plane flew on until it ran out fuel and crashed somewhere to the southwest of Australia. The flight data and cockpit voice recorder will have some really valuable information in terms of preventing something like this in the future.
I believe the voice recorder only has a two hour loop, so odds are whatever happened got overwritten.
Quoting hydrus:
I was going to ask you what your thoughts were on the situation. The first week I thought it had more than enough red flags to confidently support a highjacking. It was a middle aged jet in my book, but its not the years, its the miles that can make all the difference.

I have never believed the hijacking scenario. The plane would have landed somewhere like a major airport, and the hijackers could negotiate their demands using the passengers as hostages. Flying it off into never-never land, with no group taking responsibility, just doesn't fit the pattern. I also don't believe that any reasonable amount of hijackers are going to control 200+ passengers. Everyone knows now that, if a plane you're on is hijacked, you're not going for a short vacation to Havana. If the passengers tried to take back control of the aircraft, the plane would have crashed within a half hour, and along the planned flight route. The days of aircraft hijacking are past.
Quoting AGWcreationists:
I believe the voice recorder only has a two hour loop, so odds are whatever happened got overwritten.

You're right, but even two hours of silence is evidence compared to some of the more bizarre theories floating around.
Quoting 134. NCstu:
again, I should emphasise that it is in an insurance companies best interests to issue as many policies as possible. If the costs are high for you, then it is because the costs are high for them. In fact Solvency II requirements make insurance companies prove that they will be solvent after a catastrophic event. That means that even if they wanted to issue low rate policies they wouldn't be allowed to if the expected losses from the policy are too high.


I agree... The risk is too high for private insurance companies, so they all ran away from Florida. For the same reason that you have a national Flood program there should be a national Hurricane Program and National Earthquake program too. However, the auto policy market makes them Billions and they write those policies. I have family in the insurance business too - they don't make money in Florida underwriting (even auto) they make money using your money until you need it. It takes money to make money.

Problem with paying for the risk is that it is forcing a lot of people to now foreclose, short sell, or just sell their houses. If we started out at the right rate, then those people wouldn't have gotten into the mess they are in now. (I am in a mess too, but since I bought low I can get out with a little bit of equity) For me, as much as I hate selling and leaving, I will be OK. However, I gradually see my neighbors bailing out.
Quoting 139. sar2401:

I could grab a pole and pretend to go fishing. Fish know when I'm coming and line up to steal my bait. I swear it's the same fish that follow me no matter where I go. :-)


And that is one of the many reasons why it's called "fishing" and not "catching" :-)

BTW it was either Herbert Hoover or Calvin Coolidge who asserted that the hours a man spent fishing were not subtracted from his allotted total on earth.
Quoting 146. georgevandenberghe:


And that is one of the many reasons why it's called "fishing" and not "catching" :-)

BTW it was either Herbert Hoover or Calvin Coolidge who asserted that the hours a man spent fishing were not subtracted from his allotted total on earth.


Wait you are supposed to put bait on the hook? I thought you dropped a pole in the water as an excuse to go out on a boat away from everyone. drink beer, and pee off the bow...

BTW - I feel the same way about fishing, they get my bait too - it is usually little tiny fish. Last time I got smart and bought special hooks, caught them, and used them for bait... I saw one guy catch a nice marlin that way. He does kill them, hooks the back of the fish so it still swims around.
My theory. yes, it's speculation, but it fits:

Anyone who's piloted aircraft for any length of time--say, someone with 18,000 hours gathered over 30 years such as the pilot of Flight 370 had--knows to always have a backup plan. Such a plan, of course, should include alternate airports in the event of an emergency. So it's no surprise that Captain Shah had programmed a safe alternate runway into the flight computer. And at the time some catastrophic electrical or mechanical event took place aboard the flight--my guess is a fire--he simply called up that alternate, probably Palau Langkawi, which at the time was some miles away at about the aircraft's 8 o'clock position. Thus the tight left hook. The crew began fighting the fire like mad on their way to the alternate: sharply upward to starve the flames of oxygen, then sharply downward to extinguish them with wind. They likely followed procedure by resetting every breaker in turn trying to isolate a bad one; thus the "switching off" of transponders, radios, and the like. But despite their best efforts, the crew almost certainly became incapacitated (my guess is by smoke), and the plane flew on and on over the lonesome southern Indian Ocean until, starved of fuel some hours later, it crashed far west of Australia. Why no passenger cell calls? There are no cell towers in the middle of the southern Indian Ocean. Why'd the ACARS go down? Probably fire.

So my overall guess is they'll find debris from the plane at some point, and that debris will contain evidence of a fire. Not an explosive one as from a bomb, but a slow-burning one from, say, an electrical short or a blown tire in a wheel well, etc. No, terrorism, no hijacking, no theft. No evil plot. Just, as is almost always the case in such incidents, a string of cascading and unfortunate events that culminated in a sad and tragic accident.
Here you go...All your questions about MH370 answered in 1 minute and three seconds...

Link
Quoting 104. weathermanwannabe:
69. sar2401 1:45 PM EDT on March 20, 2014

The satellite issue that no one is discussing in the media (whether missed or at the request of DOD) related to the Malaysian flight is that our highest grade military satellites can actually "see" a person walking down the street/license tags on cars, etc. In other words, our military satts can certainly distinguish (if they get a clear pic) whether debris floating in the ocean is actually from the plane. The problem is that they can never release such pictures to the general public because of security/disclosure issues. Thus, if the military is sending ships or aircraft to the coordinates of the debris, and have released the current "lo-vis" shots to the media, chances are that they have looked up close at it want to take a closer look on the surface.............They probably already determined that it does not look like a cargo container floating out there.


You watch too many movies. This may be true over Kabul or Moscow, but I highly doubt they have that sort of capability over a point a couple thousand km from any land mass. What would the point be?
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


And that is one of the many reasons why it's called "fishing" and not "catching" :-)

BTW it was either Herbert Hoover or Calvin Coolidge who asserted that the hours a man spent fishing were not subtracted from his allotted total on earth.

LOL. When I was sailing, I was actually pretty good at snaring things like Spanish Mackerel off the stern. I can do an undersea battle with a lobster that looks like a new episode of Sea Hunt. When it comes to shore or lake fish...forget it. I can't get anything to bite without taking my bait and swim off so his buddy can get the next meal. Do fish laugh? I swear I hear some kind gurgly laughing going on the whole time I have a pole in my hand. :-)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER TC GILLIAN (14U)
2:38 AM WIB March 21 2014
=============================================

At 1:00 AM WIB, Tropical Low, Former Gillian (1004 hPa) located at 10.2S 110.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The low is reported as moving west northwest at 17 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS 10.6S 108.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 11.0S 107.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS 12.2S 105.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
60 HRS 13.0S 104.9E - 40 knots (CAT 1)

Ex-tropical cyclone Gillian is an impact on the weather conditions in parts of Indonesia such as:

- The potential for moderate to heavy rainfall in Lampung, Banten, Jakarta, West Java, Central Java and East Java
- Potential light rain in Bengkulu, South Sumatra, Bangka Belitung, South Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, South Sulawesi, Bali and Lombok
- Ocean waves 2-3 meters likely to occur in the waters south of West Java - Lombok, Bali's southern Indian Ocean to NTB.
- Ocean waves 3-4 feet likely occurred in the Indian Ocean south of East Java
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #4
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER TC GILLIAN (14U)
2:40 AM WST March 21 2014
=============================================

Ex Tropical Cyclone Gillian is forecast to re-intensify into a tropical cyclone late on Saturday or during Sunday as it passes close to Christmas Island. Gales are not expected on the island during Friday but may develop as early as Saturday afternoon. The period of greatest risk will commence overnight on Saturday and continue into Sunday as the system passes close to Christmas Island.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
===================================

A Cyclone WATCH continues for for Christmas Island
Quoting largeeyes:


You watch too many movies. This may be true over Kabul or Moscow, but I highly doubt they have that sort of capability over a point a couple thousand km from any land mass. What would the point be?

I'm not sure of your point. We have satellites that can tell if your fly is zipped. As I said in a previous post, they are usually looking at high value targets. Countries like the US, Russia, and China have the ability to move satellites so they can look pretty much anywhere. I have no idea if this is already the case in the South Indian Ocean, but there's no technical reason why it can't be done.
Quoting 148. Neapolitan:
My theory. yes, it's speculation, but it fits:

Anyone who's piloted aircraft for any length of time--say, someone with 18,000 hours gathered over 30 years such as the pilot of Flight 370 had--knows to always have a backup plan. Such a plan, of course, should include alternate airports in the event of an emergency. So it's no surprise that Captain Shah had programmed a safe alternate runway into the flight computer. And at the time some catastrophic electrical or mechanical event took place aboard the flight--my guess is a fire--he simply called up that alternate, probably Palau Langkawi, which at the time was some miles away at about the aircraft's 8 o'clock position. Thus the tight left hook. The crew began fighting the fire like mad on their way to the alternate: sharply upward to starve the flames of oxygen, then sharply downward to extinguish them with wind. They likely followed procedure by resetting every breaker in turn trying to isolate a bad one; thus the "switching off" of transponders, radios, and the like. But despite their best efforts, the crew almost certainly became incapacitated (my guess is by smoke), and the plane flew on and on over the lonesome southern Indian Ocean until, starved of fuel some hours later, it crashed far west of Australia. Why no passenger cell calls? There are no cell towers in the middle of the southern Indian Ocean. Why'd the ACARS go down? Probably fire.

So my overall guess is they'll find debris from the plane at some point, and that debris will contain evidence of a fire. Not an explosive one as from a bomb, but a slow-burning one from, say, an electrical short or a blown tire in a wheel well, etc. No, terrorism, no hijacking, no theft. No evil plot. Just, as is almost always the case in such incidents, a string of cascading and unfortunate events that culminated in a sad and tragic accident.

The problem I have with that theory is there is a report that the turn was made before their last sign off. Assuming that report was accurate.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #4
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER TC GILLIAN (14U)
2:40 AM WST March 21 2014
=============================================

Ex Tropical Cyclone Gillian is forecast to re-intensify into a tropical cyclone late on Saturday or during Sunday as it passes close to Christmas Island. Gales are not expected on the island during Friday but may develop as early as Saturday afternoon. The period of greatest risk will commence overnight on Saturday and continue into Sunday as the system passes close to Christmas Island.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
===================================

A Cyclone WATCH continues for for Christmas Island

This might present some real problems for Australia. Thousands of asylum seekers arrive at Christmas Island each year by some shaky boats, mostly from Indonesia. The Australian Government has built a couple of detention camps on the island to hold these people, and I think there's over a thousand "guests" there now. In addition, the last thing Australia needs now is any more search and rescue problems.
gee i just saw on the web,something about florida fossils..if your digging a new garden or planting a tree..if you happen to find a shiny black looking ..what looks like a stone..but could be one of those ancient shark tooth...that tooth could be worth $5.000 dollars...guess this coming season i'll be planting more and looking harder at what i dig up lol...
Quoting 149. sar2401:
Here you go...All your questions about MH370 answered in 1 minute and three seconds...

Link


SMH at the person who said a small black hole would suck in our entire universe......so what happens in the supermassive black holes in the center of galaxies?

That said, all those theories were impossible.
Quoting 147. Dakster:


Wait you are supposed to put bait on the hook? I thought you dropped a pole in the water as an excuse to go out on a boat away from everyone. drink beer, and pee off the bow...

BTW - I feel the same way about fishing, they get my bait too - it is usually little tiny fish. Last time I got smart and bought special hooks, caught them, and used them for bait... I saw one guy catch a nice marlin that way. He does kill them, hooks the back of the fish so it still swims around.


In the Bahamas we use dead baitfish for bait (12" or so) to catch king Mackerel, wahoo, tuna, mahi, and marlin. It's mostly Mahi we get; in a good three days we'll get 30 -45 of them. We have honed our methods and have days when we have 100% gaff rates and over 60% bait to landed fish ratios. If we get tuna this rate is much lowered because we lose two thirds of our tuna strikes to sharks before landing. We always release marlin if we get them to the boat. We charter two boats for this BTW

We fillet the other fish fast on the boat, cut them into pieces, bag them in ziploc bags and put them on ice. Our goal is hook to ice in less than 90 minutes which is tough when we hit a school.

Once we get in we freeze the fish in the hotel kitchen freezer. Bahamian law limits us to 25 pounds at end of trip and the rest is left for the hotel's use gratis.

Other people fish better than we do. NO ONE has better quality fish coming off the boat.
Quoting tramp96:

The problem I have with that theory is there is a report that the turn was made before their last sign off. Assuming that report was accurate.

I absolutely agree with Nea on this one. It's not unusual for a pilot to preprogram alternate routes in the flight management system (FMS) at all. In some cases, the company computer does this for the pilot as part of the route loading so, in case of an emergency, you only have to choose one option in the FMS to turn the aircraft toward the nearest airfield.

When you learn to be a pilot, you're taught that you have three jobs : Aviate, Navigate, and Communicate. If the pilots were trying to isolate the cause of a fire and use the aircraft systems to fight the fire, they were doing job number one. The FMS did job number two. Neither of the pilots were even thinking about getting on the radio, assuming it was still working.

Fire is the most dangerous thing that can happen on an aircraft in flight. I was taught you have 20 minutes with an uncontrolled fire to get the plane on the ground or you lose the mechanicals, so the plane crashes, or everyone on board is dead from noxious fumes. 99% of the garbage I've seen on the web is from non-pilots who have no idea what they're talking about, and the timeline given by the Malaysians is so unreliable that I don't trust any of it. I believe, when this is all said and done, that we'll find out these two pilots were heroes that did everything they could to prevent their airplane from crashing. The fact that were apparently unsuccessful does not diminish their heroism.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


SMH at the person who said a small black hole would suck in our entire universe......so what happens in the supermassive black holes in the center of galaxies?

That said, all those theories were impossible.

It would be bad enough if this was on some paranormal web site, but this was on CNN, and they had the former director of the NTSB, who is apparently off her meds. I'm convinced the world is simply becoming more delusional.
Quoting 155. tramp96:

The problem I have with that theory is there is a report that the turn was made before their last sign off. Assuming that report was accurate.
No, the pilots told ATC good night--the conventional cockpit acknowledgement that control was being handed off--after the coordinates for the alternate runway had been entered in the computer for backup purposes, but several minutes before the event (again, likely a fire) grabbed the attention of the pilots.
Quoting LargoFl:
gee i just saw on the web,something about florida fossils..if your digging a new garden or planting a tree..if you happen to find a shiny black looking ..what looks like a stone..but could be one of those ancient shark tooth...that tooth could be worth $5.000 dollars...guess this coming season i'll be planting more and looking harder at what i dig up lol...

Do they have any of those things up here in Alabama? If so, I'm renting a backhoe. :-)
Quoting 163. sar2401:

Do they have any of those things up here in Alabama? If so, I'm renting a backhoe. :-)
lol florida was underwater..when you go to destin..start digging lol
Quoting 114. Neapolitan:
The topic has had a lot of research. I mean, a ton. And the fact is that, completely separate from the dollar amount of resulting property damage, extreme weather events around the globe have been and are increasing in both frequency and severity. Period.

Link
Quoting Dakster:


Wait you are supposed to put bait on the hook? I thought you dropped a pole in the water as an excuse to go out on a boat away from everyone. drink beer, and pee off the bow...

BTW - I feel the same way about fishing, they get my bait too - it is usually little tiny fish. Last time I got smart and bought special hooks, caught them, and used them for bait... I saw one guy catch a nice marlin that way. He does kill them, hooks the back of the fish so it still swims around.

I'm going to try hanging a line off the end of my .22 and shooting the dang things next time. I'd have a lot more success...and a lot more fun. :-)
Reports, Website Document Effects of and Need for Dialogue on Climate Change

Posted by Tim Profeta of Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions, Duke University on March 20, 2014

Last year, carbon dioxide briefly passed the 400 parts per million milestone. Now, says Ralph Keeling of the Scripps Institution for Oceanography, we’re on track to “see values dwelling over 400 in April and May. It’s just a matter of time before it stays over 400 forever.”

This pronouncement comes the same week the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) released a report and the White House, a website, that seek to illustrate the effects of climate change and advance dialogue about it.

“We believe we have an obligation to inform the public and policymakers about what science is showing about any issue in modern life, and climate is a particularly pressing one,” said AAAS CEO Alan Leshner. “As the voice of the scientific community, we need to share what we know and bring policymakers to the table to discuss how to deal with the issue.”

The AAAS report offers three messages about climate change: (1) it is happening, and humans are the cause; (2) risks posed by climate change are high and potentially damaging; and (3) the sooner we act, the lower the risks and costs. The report takes readers through a series of potential consequences of climate change that include accelerated sea level rise and food shortages as a result of the increasing difficulty of growing crops.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s next report, due out at the end of the month, is expected to touch on one of these topics. A leaked draft obtained by The Independent suggests that climate change will reduce crop yields by 2 percent per decade for the rest of the century. One study out now in the journal Nature Climate Change finds crop yields—specifically rice, corn and wheat—will decline more than 25 percent as a result of climate change.

Navy Tests Space Solar Idea

California and Texas topped a list of the 10 best states for clean energy jobs last year. The largest job creator? The solar industry.

Now, the impact of solar technology could extend into outer space. The United States Navy is working on a project that could, in theory, allow for the capture of enough solar power to run military bases and even cities. The Navy is working on “sandwich” modules or prototypes far larger than the International Space Station that would collect solar power while aboard an orbiting satellite. Specifically, a photovoltaic panel atop the satellite would absorb the sun’s energy. An electronics system would convert the energy into a radio frequency sent back to Earth.

“People might not associate radio waves with carrying energy, because they think of them for communications, like radio, TV, or cell phones,” said Paul Jaffe, a spacecraft engineer leading the project. “They don’t think about them as carrying usable amounts of energy.”

The idea of capturing solar power in space is not a new idea. The International Academy of Astronautics recently suggested that space solar technology would be viable in the next 30 years.

Decision on U.S. Oil Exports Complex

In 2013, crude oil production in the United States reached its highest level since 1989—a roughly 15 percent increase from 2012, according the Energy Information Administration.

The Ukrainian crisis and record-setting levels of U.S. oil production have some policymakers and industry officials calling for the reversal of a ban on most crude oil exports. Opponents and proponents disagree about the impact to consumers should the ban be lifted.

“I think it is realistic that the U.S. could be energy self-sufficient by the end of this decade,” said Exxon Mobil CEO Rex Tillerson. “We’re already the world’s largest natural gas producer (and) last year crude oil production surpassed levels not seen since the 1980s.”

The topic’s varying angles dominated discuss at the annual IHS CERAWeek energy conference in Houston recently.

The Climate Post offers a rundown of the week in climate and energy news. It is produced each Thursday by Duke University’s Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions.
Quoting 162. Neapolitan:
No, the pilots told ATC good night--the conventional cockpit acknowledgement that control was being handed off--after the coordinates for the alternate runway had been entered in the computer for backup purposes, but several minutes before the event (again, likely a fire) grabbed the attention of the pilots.


Looking more and more like that is a distinct possibility as when you extend the Southwest track over that 18K runway he programmed for the fastest OCEAN approach,it continues down into that debris area.

And when the 45K Oxygen deprived climb, did not extinguish the fire, their Smoke Hoods would only last 15-20 at best.

Then "George" would fly until flameout from fuel exhaustion and then the uncontrolled final descent would have been quick.

It's making mo sense by the hour.

Quoting 162. Neapolitan:
No, the pilots told ATC good night--the conventional cockpit acknowledgement that control was being handed off--after the coordinates for the alternate runway had been entered in the computer for backup purposes, but several minutes before the event (again, likely a fire) grabbed the attention of the pilots.

I heard one pilot who was an "expert" on CNN or Fox say that is conventional for North America but they are more formal over there again just what I'm hearing on the tube.
Quoting 168. Patrap:


Looking more and more like that is a distinct possibility as when you extend the Southwest track over that 18K runway he programmed for the fastest OCEAN approach,it continues down into that debris area.

And when the 45K Oxygen deprived climb, did not extinguish the fire, their Smoke Hoods would only last 15-20 at best.

Then "George" would fly until flameout from fuel exhaustion and then the uncontrolled final descent would have been quick.

It's making mo sense by the hour.


The thing that gets me is as soon as they lost the transponders why nothing was done by ground personal.
Quoting 166. sar2401:

I'm going to try hanging a line off the end of my .22 and shooting the dang things next time. I'd have a lot more success...and a lot more fun. :-)


Dynomite works better.. But I hear the local law enforcement agencies frown upon doing that. Dip netting is also good if you get into a school.
Quoting 159. georgevandenberghe:


In the Bahamas we use dead baitfish for bait (12" or so) to catch king Mackerel, wahoo, tuna, mahi, and marlin. It's mostly Mahi we get; in a good three days we'll get 30 -45 of them. We have honed our methods and have days when we have 100% gaff rates and over 60% bait to landed fish ratios. If we get tuna this rate is much lowered because we lose two thirds of our tuna strikes to sharks before landing. We always release marlin if we get them to the boat. We charter two boats for this BTW

We fillet the other fish fast on the boat, cut them into pieces, bag them in ziploc bags and put them on ice. Our goal is hook to ice in less than 90 minutes which is tough when we hit a school.

Once we get in we freeze the fish in the hotel kitchen freezer. Bahamian law limits us to 25 pounds at end of trip and the rest is left for the hotel's use gratis.

Other people fish better than we do. NO ONE has better quality fish coming off the boat.


Sounds good to me... You got the system down and the fish keep coming.
Quoting tramp96:

I heard one pilot who was an "expert" on CNN or Fox say that is conventional for North America but they are more formal over there again just what I'm hearing on the tube.

Nah, signing off with "Good night", "See you next trip", "Hope the new baby's doing well", "Merry Christmas"....all very common when you get handed off. Many of the pilots know the controllers, either personally or just by talking to them so many times, kind of like a lot of us here. The international language of flying is English, and non-native English speakers tend to be more formal just to make sure they get it right. Everything I've heard from the pilot and copilot indicated to me that they spoke English a lot better than their Transport Minister.
Quoting Dakster:


Dynomite works better.. But I hear the local law enforcement agencies frown upon doing that. Dip netting is also good if you get into a school.

LOL. Churches up here make money with fish frys, and we have about the tastiest bass in the world. I've heard tell, but cannot confirm, that explosives real early in the morning, before the game wardens come around, has been used occasionally to make sure there's enough fish to satisfy everyone's appetite. :-)
Gillian
Quoting 173. sar2401:

Nah, signing off with "Good night", "See you next trip", "Hope the new baby's doing well", "Merry Christmas"....all very common when you get handed off. Many of the pilots know the controllers, either personally or just by talking to them so many times, kind of like a lot of us here. The international language of flying is English, and non-native English speakers tend to be more formal just to make sure they get it right. Everything I've heard from the pilot and copilot indicated to me that they spoke English a lot better than their Transport Minister.

Tell that to the pilot who the quote came from. English is the standard but that doesn't mean you need to be casual.
Mike is now just a naked swirl
Quoting 159. georgevandenberghe:


In the Bahamas we use dead baitfish for bait (12" or so) to catch king Mackerel, wahoo, tuna, mahi, and marlin. It's mostly Mahi we get; in a good three days we'll get 30 -45 of them. We have honed our methods and have days when we have 100% gaff rates and over 60% bait to landed fish ratios. If we get tuna this rate is much lowered because we lose two thirds of our tuna strikes to sharks before landing. We always release marlin if we get them to the boat. We charter two boats for this BTW

We fillet the other fish fast on the boat, cut them into pieces, bag them in ziploc bags and put them on ice. Our goal is hook to ice in less than 90 minutes which is tough when we hit a school.

Once we get in we freeze the fish in the hotel kitchen freezer. Bahamian law limits us to 25 pounds at end of trip and the rest is left for the hotel's use gratis.

Other people fish better than we do. NO ONE has better quality fish coming off the boat.


Good afternoon

George, I have a question for you. Are you speaking as a commercial or recreational fisherman?

Lindy
Quoting 168. Patrap:


Looking more and more like that is a distinct possibility as when you extend the Southwest track over that 18K runway he programmed for the fastest OCEAN approach,it continues down into that debris area.

And when the 45K Oxygen deprived climb, did not extinguish the fire, their Smoke Hoods would only last 15-20 at best.

Then "George" would fly until flameout from fuel exhaustion and then the uncontrolled final descent would have been quick.

It's making mo sense by the hour.


If the plane is on fire why would you go with the slow assent and go above the safety ceiling risking catastrophic failure instead of taking the dive right away?
Quoting 181. tramp96:

If the plane is on fire why would you go with the slow assent and go above the safety ceiling risking catastrophic failure instead of taking the dive right away?


Maybe the anxiety of being on a burning plane...
Quoting 148. Neapolitan:
My theory. yes, it's speculation, but it fits:

Anyone who's piloted aircraft for any length of time--say, someone with 18,000 hours gathered over 30 years such as the pilot of Flight 370 had--knows to always have a backup plan. Such a plan, of course, should include alternate airports in the event of an emergency. So it's no surprise that Captain Shah had programmed a safe alternate runway into the flight computer. And at the time some catastrophic electrical or mechanical event took place aboard the flight--my guess is a fire--he simply called up that alternate, probably Palau Langkawi, which at the time was some miles away at about the aircraft's 8 o'clock position. Thus the tight left hook. The crew began fighting the fire like mad on their way to the alternate: sharply upward to starve the flames of oxygen, then sharply downward to extinguish them with wind. They likely followed procedure by resetting every breaker in turn trying to isolate a bad one; thus the "switching off" of transponders, radios, and the like. But despite their best efforts, the crew almost certainly became incapacitated (my guess is by smoke), and the plane flew on and on over the lonesome southern Indian Ocean until, starved of fuel some hours later, it crashed far west of Australia. Why no passenger cell calls? There are no cell towers in the middle of the southern Indian Ocean. Why'd the ACARS go down? Probably fire.

So my overall guess is they'll find debris from the plane at some point, and that debris will contain evidence of a fire. Not an explosive one as from a bomb, but a slow-burning one from, say, an electrical short or a blown tire in a wheel well, etc. No, terrorism, no hijacking, no theft. No evil plot. Just, as is almost always the case in such incidents, a string of cascading and unfortunate events that culminated in a sad and tragic accident.


I saw this same comment on ABC News blog last night..was that you?
Quoting 183. ncstorm:


I saw this same comment on ABC News blog last night..was that you?

Duh!
Quoting 182. Dakster:


Maybe the anxiety of being on a burning plane...

Don't know about you but if I'm anxious I'm going fast not slow.
Quoting 185. tramp96:

Don't know about you but if I'm anxious I'm going fast not slow.


Instinct may have been to pull up. Maybe Sar can expand on this since he is a pilot.

And who knows when the pilots passed out from smoke inhalation and what they were trying to do.

All of this is very very speculative. Hopefully the black box sheds some light on what happened.
Quoting 186. Dakster:


Instinct may have been to pull up. Maybe Sar can expand on this since he is a pilot.

And who knows when the pilots passed out from smoke inhalation and what they were trying to do.

All of this is very very speculative. Hopefully the black box sheds some light on what happened.


If they ever find it
Quoting 178. VirginIslandsVisitor:


Good afternoon

George, I have a question for you. Are you speaking as a commercial or recreational fisherman?

Lindy


Strictly recreational. Commercial fishermen process their product better than we do including using brine solutions for immediate chilling.

I have used brine for demonstrations of what we could do if we had the facilities but we don't have enough ice or salt to cool all of our fish this way (unless we have one of those days where we didn't catch enough fish to feed the cat.)
Quoting 187. VAbeachhurricanes:


If they ever find it


Yup. Gotta find the darn thing first.
Quoting 179. ZacWeatherKidUK:
94W


Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

At 4:00 PM PhST, the Low Pressure Area was estimated based on all available data at 320 km east southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao Del Sur 7.3ºN, 129.2ºE.
Hi, all. Concerning MH370 but on a more familiar aspect for weather observers: I found the below linked effort of a weather site to locate the missing flight by contrails (hey, wxmood!), and think it's at least interesting and a good idea. Article is two days old. Maybe at the end - if they can verify the debris findings - the sighting may match?

Malaysia Airlines Flight 370
Investigation of a possible southern arc contrail
by Tim Vasquez / Weather Graphics
March 18, 2014


Source article above.

And sorry if this article already has been posted.
Quoting 183. ncstorm:


I saw this same comment on ABC News blog last night..was that you?
No. I'm sure a number of others--especially those with years of piloting experience, like me--have looked at all the clues and all the evidence, and have come up with the same (or a very similar) explanation. In fact, it's kind of obvious, if you think about it...
Quoting 176. tramp96:

Tell that to the pilot who the quote came from. English is the standard but that doesn't mean you need to be casual.
"Good day" (or in this case "good night") is recognized by all civil air authorities as officially-accepted shorthand. ATC tells you, "Piper 7-6-8-Papa-Zulu, maintain 7,000. Contact Jacksonville Center at 1-2-5-point-7-5. Good day." And you, as a pilot, respond with something like, "Papa-Zulu, 1-2-5-point-7-5. Good day." It's shorthand, but it prevents clutter, and it's widely accepted.
Quoting 192. Neapolitan:
No. I'm sure a number of others--especially those with years of piloting experience, like me--have looked at all the clues and all the evidence, and have come up with the same (or a very similar) explanation. In fact, it's kind of obvious, if you think about it...


Its not obvious... every theory is just pure speculation until we find the plane.
Quoting 166. sar2401:

I'm going to try hanging a line off the end of my .22 and shooting the dang things next time. I'd have a lot more success...and a lot more fun. :-)
We would catch fish with a bow and arrow with a zebco real attached to it..For those who think it is a crazy idea its not, and works very well with medium size fish..:)
Quoting 188. georgevandenberghe:


Strictly recreational. Commercial fishermen process their product better than we do including using brine solutions for immediate chilling.

I have used brine for demonstrations of what we could do if we had the facilities but we don't have enough ice or salt to cool all of our fish this way (unless we have one of those days where we didn't catch enough fish to feed the cat.)


Sorry, had to step away from the computer for a few minutes.

We, my other half and I, are commercial fishermen. We don't target the fish that you catch though. We leave those to the charter boats and those that do the deep sea fishing.

We rarely go out more than 11 miles from the island and target the yellowtail snapper. We ice the fish down all night long to keep them fresh for that morning. (Makes mental note to get on with her fishing blog...)

Lindy
In respect to the blog subject with February's temperatures, here are the measurements for Germany, where it has been the 7th warmest since records began in 1881 (source DWD):


Temperature anomalies in Germany for February 2014. Source.

Wouldn't be surprised if March will exceed this ranking by far. Today it has been another brillant day with full scale sunshine and temps above 68F (20C). We're expecting a little cold snap at the weekend, though, and would welcome some rain in most regions.


Pic I took today during lunchbreak (Mainz). Good night, folks!
The GFS has slowly but surely been coming south and east with the snow..good trend..I hope it keeps with it..

Quoting 194. hydrus:
We would catch fish with a bow and arrow with a zebco real attached to it..For those who think it is a crazy idea its not, and works very well with medium size fish..:)


Laughing over here. My Canadian family thinks I'm crazy enough as it is because I handline. Can't imagine what they'd think if I told them I was using a bow and arrow!!
Quoting 192. Neapolitan:
No. I'm sure a number of others--especially those with years of piloting experience, like me--have looked at all the clues and all the evidence, and have come up with the same (or a very similar) explanation. In fact, it's kind of obvious, if you think about it..."Good day" (or in this case "good night") is recognized by all civil air authorities as officially-accepted shorthand. ATC tells you, "Piper 7-6-8-Papa-Zulu, maintain 7,000. Contact Jacksonville Center at 1-2-5-point-7-5. Good day." And you, as a pilot, respond with something like, "Papa-Zulu, 1-2-5-point-7-5. Good day." It's shorthand, but it prevents clutter, and it's widely accepted.


I dont think anything is obvious with this story..so many theories and experts..

I feel terrible for the families who can't get a straight answer..
Quoting 193. VAbeachhurricanes:


Its not obvious... every theory is just pure speculation until we find the plane.


exactly
Happy First Day of Spring.
From spaceweather.com, in case it hasn't been posted yet: SOLAR 'SUPERSTORM' NARROWLY MISSES EARTH: The heliophysics communitty is buzzing today in response to an article in Nature Communications, which describes an intense solar storm that narrowly missed Earth almost two years ago. On July 23, 2012, a CME rocketed away from the sun at 2000 km/s, almost four times faster than a typical eruption. The storm tore through Earth orbit, but fortunately Earth wasn't there. Instead it hit the STEREO-A spacecraft, which experienced the most intense solar proton storm since 1976. Researchers have been analyzing the data ever since, and they have concluded that the storm was akin to the Carrington Event of 1859. ...

NASA Earth Observatory, March 21, 2014, Image of the day: Dust Storm Blows Across Texas
Quoting 203. barbamz:

NASA Earth Observatory, March 21, 2014, Image of the day: Dust Storm Blows Across Texas

I never knew we had a state named dust...

Quoting 193. VAbeachhurricanes:


Its not obvious... every theory is just pure speculation until we find the plane.
Ever heard of Occam's Razor? Hence my use of the term "obvious". At any rate, it's common for knowledgeable types to be able to connect the dots that easily escape the notice of the average layperson.

Having said all that, if I'm widely off the mark with my theory, I'll admit it like always...
This model run was even colder:




Still dont think much of it.. surface temps are 40s anyway (falling into upper 30s at night, and quickly rebounding the next morning)
Quoting 207. Gearsts:
What's happening.
Quoting 194. hydrus:
We would catch fish with a bow and arrow with a zebco real attached to it..For those who think it is a crazy idea its not, and works very well with medium size fish..:)


I think I remember the North Carolina State Record channel catfish being taken with a Barbie rod a few years ago. 21 pounds!
Looks like I'll have to answer my own question.A modoki?.I see colder temperatures off the S.A coast and warmer than normal temperatures in the central pacific.
Quoting 186. Dakster:


Instinct may have been to pull up. Maybe Sar can expand on this since he is a pilot.

And who knows when the pilots passed out from smoke inhalation and what they were trying to do.

All of this is very very speculative. Hopefully the black box sheds some light on what happened.

I thunked about this in my travels and the reasoning to pull up and then descend would to extinguish an external fire. If the fire came from the breakers and there was smoke in the cockpit then that would be an internal fire and the breaker room is below the cockpit I believe and would need to be part of the pressurized part of the cabin.
Quoting 210. washingtonian115:
What's happening.


Haven't seen that show in a long time...

Quoting 213. tramp96:

I thunked about this in my travels and the reasoning to pull up and then descend would to extinguish an external fire. If the fire came from the breakers and there was smoke in the cockpit then that would be an internal fire and the breaker room is below the cockpit I believe and would need to be part of the pressurized part of the cabin.


I don't know the internals of a 777. And do the pilot have portable Oxygen containers so they can move around? Is there a way to purposely lose pressure to lose oxygen? The masks could keep the passengers with oxygen. But you can't really move around.
Quoting 210. washingtonian115:
What's happening.
El nino?
World Water Day: Droughts across the globe
BBC, 20 March 2014 Last updated at 01:56 GMT
People around the world will be encouraged to turn their taps off this Saturday to mark World water day.
Four BBC correspondents explain the lack of water in their areas - in the US, Australia, Pakistan and Kenya.

Quoting 215. Gearsts:
El nino?
We know one is happening.Whether it's a classic or modoki is what question I was getting at.Meanwhile from NWS

THIS COLD AIR WILL SUPPORT A
PERIOD OF WINTRY PCPN POTENTIAL FROM THE NRN/N-CNTRL PLAINS INTO
THE MID ATLC/NORTHEAST. AREAS FROM THE CNTRL APLCHNS/MID ATLC
INTO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR EXPECTED WRN ATLC DEVELOPMENT
TUE-WED FOR SNOW/STRONG WIND POTENTIAL.
Quoting 210. washingtonian115:
What's happening.


From me, just fish stories. Nothing in the garden and anything expressing my sentiments about snow now would be properly intercepted and blocked by reasonable moderators.
Quoting 217. washingtonian115:
We know one is happening.Whether it's a classic or modoki is what question I was getting at.Meanwhile from NWS

THIS COLD AIR WILL SUPPORT A
PERIOD OF WINTRY PCPN POTENTIAL FROM THE NRN/N-CNTRL PLAINS INTO
THE MID ATLC/NORTHEAST. AREAS FROM THE CNTRL APLCHNS/MID ATLC
INTO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR EXPECTED WRN ATLC DEVELOPMENT
TUE-WED FOR SNOW/STRONG WIND POTENTIAL.


Do you think you are you going to get some more snow Washi?

Quoting 219. Dakster:


Do you think you are you going to get some more snow Washi?

I think their is going to be snow.How much is the question


Jeff-CapitalWeatherGang
5:46 PM EDT
One other aspect the GFS and Euro have been consistently doing is taking that east coast system and blowing it up off New England, with central pressures in the low 960's mb. Suffice it to say....the models are dancing with the idea of a significant east coast snowstorm for someone between the Carolinas and Maine.
Quoting 217. washingtonian115:
We know one is happening.Whether it's a classic or modoki is what question I was getting at.Meanwhile from NWS

THIS COLD AIR WILL SUPPORT A
PERIOD OF WINTRY PCPN POTENTIAL FROM THE NRN/N-CNTRL PLAINS INTO
THE MID ATLC/NORTHEAST. AREAS FROM THE CNTRL APLCHNS/MID ATLC
INTO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR EXPECTED WRN ATLC DEVELOPMENT
TUE-WED FOR SNOW/STRONG WIND POTENTIAL.


We don't have a large sample size but modoki El Nino is associated with cold winters in the East, different from the other more heavily described ones. Think 1977 and 2010.

For a rotten cold spring in recent times look at 1983. The two classic nationwide outlier cold springs are 1907 and 1961 but 1967 in New England was also remarkably cold.
Quoting 220. washingtonian115:
I think their is going to be snow.How much is the question


Jeff-CapitalWeatherGang
5:46 PM EDT
One other aspect the GFS and Euro have been consistently doing is taking that east coast system and blowing it up off New England, with central pressures in the low 960's mb. Suffice it to say....the models are dancing with the idea of a significant east coast snowstorm for someone between the Carolinas and Maine.


Almost like saying the next Atlantic Hurricane to hit the US east coast will be somewhere between Texas and Maine.
Quoting 192. Neapolitan:
No. I'm sure a number of others--especially those with years of piloting experience, like me--have looked at all the clues and all the evidence, and have come up with the same (or a very similar) explanation. In fact, it's kind of obvious, if you think about it..."Good day" (or in this case "good night") is recognized by all civil air authorities as officially-accepted shorthand. ATC tells you, "Piper 7-6-8-Papa-Zulu, maintain 7,000. Contact Jacksonville Center at 1-2-5-point-7-5. Good day." And you, as a pilot, respond with something like, "Papa-Zulu, 1-2-5-point-7-5. Good day." It's shorthand, but it prevents clutter, and it's widely accepted.

Quoting 162. Neapolitan:
No, the pilots told ATC good night--the conventional cockpit acknowledgement that control was being handed off--after the coordinates for the alternate runway had been entered in the computer for backup purposes, but several minutes before the event (again, likely a fire) grabbed the attention of the pilots.

Things have been fluid but this is the last thing that I have heard as far as the timeline goes.

Link

As far as the language that was used I'm going by what a pilot said on one of the news station however I will say several of them(other pilots) said they saw nothing wrong with how the the crew signed off.
224. etxwx
Evening reading with a focus on energy and the environment:

Down the Drain: Who’s Watching Chemicals Used in Oil Drilling?
By Dave Fehling - Texas Tribune March 20, 2014
A case of alleged dumping of possibly thousands of gallons of chemicals into Odessa’s sewer system has local officials wondering who’s supposed to police the drilling industry.

New technology for uninterrupted power supply in India could end rolling blackouts

Texas refinery agrees to cut air pollution, pay fine

Under pressure, Exxon Mobil agrees to disclose risks of carbon rules

25 years later, Exxon Valdez spill effects linger (photos)

While the seas rise in the Outer Banks and elsewhere in NC, science treads water
Quoting 214. Dakster:


Haven't seen that show in a long time...



I don't know the internals of a 777. And do the pilot have portable Oxygen containers so they can move around? Is there a way to purposely lose pressure to lose oxygen? The masks could keep the passengers with oxygen. But you can't really move around.

One of the "experts" said the pilot could depressurize the cabin and cut off the oxygen and they would be fine in the cockpit.
I'm inclined to go with mechanical failure but a lot of things don't add up.
226. yoboi
Quoting 148. Neapolitan:
My theory. yes, it's speculation, but it fits:

Anyone who's piloted aircraft for any length of time--say, someone with 18,000 hours gathered over 30 years such as the pilot of Flight 370 had--knows to always have a backup plan. Such a plan, of course, should include alternate airports in the event of an emergency. So it's no surprise that Captain Shah had programmed a safe alternate runway into the flight computer. And at the time some catastrophic electrical or mechanical event took place aboard the flight--my guess is a fire--he simply called up that alternate, probably Palau Langkawi, which at the time was some miles away at about the aircraft's 8 o'clock position. Thus the tight left hook. The crew began fighting the fire like mad on their way to the alternate: sharply upward to starve the flames of oxygen, then sharply downward to extinguish them with wind. They likely followed procedure by resetting every breaker in turn trying to isolate a bad one; thus the "switching off" of transponders, radios, and the like. But despite their best efforts, the crew almost certainly became incapacitated (my guess is by smoke), and the plane flew on and on over the lonesome southern Indian Ocean until, starved of fuel some hours later, it crashed far west of Australia. Why no passenger cell calls? There are no cell towers in the middle of the southern Indian Ocean. Why'd the ACARS go down? Probably fire.

So my overall guess is they'll find debris from the plane at some point, and that debris will contain evidence of a fire. Not an explosive one as from a bomb, but a slow-burning one from, say, an electrical short or a blown tire in a wheel well, etc. No, terrorism, no hijacking, no theft. No evil plot. Just, as is almost always the case in such incidents, a string of cascading and unfortunate events that culminated in a sad and tragic accident.




Have you ever flown something bigger than a Cessna????
I have an early morning flight from RDU-BWI-SAN Tuesday morning. Wondering if I should just go ahead and move it up and leave Monday evening?
Quoting 227. ecupirate:
I have an early morning flight from RDU-BWI-SAN Tuesday morning. Wondering if I should just go ahead and move it up and leave Monday evening?
Keep a eye out for it but if the Euro is indeed right if I were you I would move it up to Monday night.Tuesday it looks like all hell breaks loose around here according to the model.
Quoting tramp96:

Tell that to the pilot who the quote came from. English is the standard but that doesn't mean you need to be casual.

I'm not saying they "need" to casual. I'm saying that it's very typical. It was first raised as either some kind of signal something was wrong or not "formal" enough to be the real pilot. My point was that both those theories are wrong. I've had probably hundreds of handoff and listened to many thousands of others. They range from being very formal to very casual. The language used by the parson now assumed to be the co-pilot seems quite typical to me.

If you're not familiar with aeronautical communications, you can listen to any of hundreds of feeds of tower and air traffic control traffic from all over the world at LiveATC.com. For example, you can listen to Kuala Lumpur (KUL) at this feed now. It's currently 9941 there, so there's not going to be a lot of traffic, but this was about the same time MH370 left KUL en route to Beijing. This might give you a feel for how things sound if you're a pilot or controller.

Ooops...sorry, I meant 0041 at KUL at the time of my post. 9941 doesn't make much sense. :-)
Quoting 225. tramp96:

One of the "experts" said the pilot could depressurize the cabin and cut off the oxygen and they would be fine in the cockpit.
I'm inclined to go with mechanical failure but a lot of things don't add up.


Mechanical failure - but then the pilot could cause a depressurization to try and put out an internal fire?

I am grabbing at straws here. I don't have a good working theory.
Quoting 229. sar2401:

I'm not saying they "need" to casual. I'm saying that it's very typical. It was first raised as either some kind of signal something was wrong or not "formal" enough to be the real pilot. My point was that both those theories are wrong. I've had probably hundreds of handoff and listened to many thousands of others. They range from being very formal to very casual. The language used by the parson now assumed to be the co-pilot seems quite typical to me.

If you're not familiar with aeronautical communications, you can listen to any of hundreds of feeds of tower and air traffic control traffic from all over the world at LiveATC.com. For example, you can listen to Kuala Lumpur (KUL) at this feed now. It's currently 9941 there, so there's not going to be a lot of traffic, but this was about the same time MH370 left KUL en route to Beijing. This might give you a feel for how things sound if you're a pilot or controller.

Thanks
Did the 12Z EURO show any accumulating snow for Wesern NC? The EC storm for next week.
Quoting 232. robert88:
Did the 12Z EURO show any accumulating snow for Wesern NC? The EC storm for next week.
According to DT yes.It showed a all snow event for you guys.This is still 4 days away (Not counting Thursday since it's just about over).So keep checking back in for updates and forecast tuning.
So it's "obvious" what happened to the missing plane. It must be nice to be right about everything.
Quoting yoboi:




Have you ever flown something bigger than a Cessna????

I think Nea actually has a multi-engine rating, IIRC. I'm just a private pilot that has an instrument rating. I've done quite a bit of cross country flying, but it was just for fun. I do have a lot of years of search and rescue experience, which is one of the reasons MH370 is so interesting to me. I have never been involved in a missing aircraft search where, 14 days later, we still don't even have a clue about what direction to search, let alone where it may have crashed.

I'm not saying flying a private plane is the same as a 777, but being a pilot involves the same basic training and principles. With the exception of a few things I know as absolute facts, almost everything Nea, me, or any other pilot is going to say is based on those facts, experience, and theories. I have never been involved in a search that had much more than those three things at the start of the search.

I happen to agree with Nea's theory, but I've heard substantially similar theories from other pilots as well. Either a fire, which the plane could have survived and flew on by automatic pilot, or some kind of major mechanical failure, seem to be the only two reasonable explanations for MH370's disappearance. If it was a major mechanical failure, the plane should have crashed within a relatively short period of time, and Malaysian military radar should have seen that. A fire that produced enough gasses to incapacitate and subsequently asphyxiate the pilots, crew, and passengers seems like the only way the plane could have kept flying until fuel exhaustion. The more time that has gone by, the less likely alternate theories like hijacking, terrorism, or some kind of plot to steal the airplane seem.

Everything I've written is based on what I think the likely outcome of MH370's flight has been. I have no idea if I'm right. No one has any idea if they're right. Still, when you're running a search, you take the best data you have, the best experience you can get, and then theorize. You pick one as high probability and execute that search first. If that doesn't produce results, it on to the next best, always trying to prove or disprove the theories. It seems like there should be a better way to do all this but, in 35 years as a pilot and 27 years in search and rescue, every missing aircraft starts the same way. The thing that's really different about this one is that we're now two weeks into it and know very little more than we learned in the first 24 hours.
Pop up storm?
Quoting sar2401:

This might present some real problems for Australia. Thousands of asylum seekers arrive at Christmas Island each year by some shaky boats, mostly from Indonesia. The Australian Government has built a couple of detention camps on the island to hold these people, and I think there's over a thousand "guests" there now. In addition, the last thing Australia needs now is any more search and rescue problems.


Since the new government has come into control down here. There has only been a handful of boat arrivals. Yes there is about 1500-2000 people in the immigration detention centre there.
Goodevening Wunder friends. Search planes in the air now en-route to possible debris field from MH-370. A lady that graduated from Embry-Riddle is on CNN now. :D
Malaysia Airlines MH370: Planes resume search for possible debris off Western Australian coast.



"The weather conditions were such that we were unable to see for very much of the flight today but the other aircraft that are searching, they may have better conditions," Flight Lieutenant Chris Birrer told reporters.
The weather bureau has forecast improved conditions today.
Spring Snowstorm Next Week?

We are looking at a system that could bring snow to the East Coast next week
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Goodevening Wunder friends. Search planes in the air now en-route to possible debris field from MH-370. A lady that graduated from Embry-Riddle is on CNN now. :D


There is a search plane there right now (P3-Orion), and another has just taken off. There is also a Gulfstream there also. The RAAF sends a plane out every 2 hours so that there is a plane searching every day light hour. We have not been told how long the search will continue, whether it will be a few days or until the debris spotted by satellite has been found.

MH370 Search - Media kit
Some P-3 Orion's from the Navy will be assisting as well to augment the P-8's

They can dropsonde for the Pingers too.

Its a Big area..now almost a half month out.



P-8 Poseidon

Senator Saxby Chambliss just said the transponder was turned off intentionally and then the plane stayed on course for a while before turning. He was on Megan Kelly's show.
Quoting 230. Dakster:


Mechanical failure - but then the pilot could cause a depressurization to try and put out an internal fire?

I am grabbing at straws here. I don't have a good working theory.
Mechanical failure after that fact the plane turned around and ran out of fuel, but not mechanical failure beforehand or the plane wouldn't have made it that far into the Indian Ocean. So no repeat of Air France like some have been saying, this incident is one of a kind. Never seen anything like it. A pre-programmed plane, sounds like it was tampered with, somebody involved on the ground crew or refueling crew? So much to investigate with this, we may not get an answer for years to come.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION "CALOY"

At 8:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Depression "CALOY" was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 340 km east northeast of Davao City (7.5N, 128.8E). Maximum winds: 45kph near the center. Forecast to move West slowly.

On these type Flights a Experienced Pilot always has a Return execute Pkg on Standby for a direct return, so it is not unusual in any sense.

Think of it with the Shuttle Abort Modes post Launch and climb out, Trans Atlantic, TAL, ATO, RTLS, etc.

The no knowledge Media guys are yakking that to ,er..."death".



And if you extrapolate that Sw turns Heading it leads to a 18k foot runway ocean approach, and extend the path Southwest into the Indian, guess where the impact from fuel exhaustion leads too?

Not far from the Search Area now.

Food fo thought
Quoting tramp96:

One of the "experts" said the pilot could depressurize the cabin and cut off the oxygen and they would be fine in the cockpit.
I'm inclined to go with mechanical failure but a lot of things don't add up.

Both pilots have two separate sources of oxygen. One is from a dedicated oxygen generator separate from the oxygen generators that feed the masks that drop down in the cabin. The other is bottled oxygen that has no connection to the airplane oxygen generators at all. The pilots are supposed to be on oxygen above about 15,000 feet but that's almost never the case. It's a pain to communicate if your mask is strapped on, and it's really uncomfortable for long periods of time. A fighter pilot has no choice, since the cockpit isn't pressurized, but a commercial cockpit is. The masks are generally loosely draped across your chest so you can grab it if you need to. Pilots also have access to smoke hoods, generally located in the seat side or armrest, so they can maneuver in a smoky, low visibility environment. A smoke hood generally gives you about 5-7 minutes of breathable air. I don't know the exact cockpit layout on MH370 or Malaysian Airlines policies, so those are just general rules and equipment. Some airlines also provide "pony" tanks, small oxygen tanks that can be strapped to your leg if you need to leave the cockpit for any reason.

One of the possible fire-fighting procedures is to reduce bleed air to the cabin and cockpit to provide a less oxygen rich environment for the fire. You can lower the oxygen concentration from a normal 17-19% to about 10-12% for a short time without causing passengers to become unconscious. It's not high up on the list of fire fighting procedures, but it can be used. I don't know where the 45,000 foot altitude figure came from, but I can't see why taking the plane up would help fight a fire or correct a mechanical failure. A 777 has a "never to exceed" ceiling of 43,000 feet, but that's for long term flying, so the skin of the fuselage doesn't get constantly overstressed. There's no reason a 777 couldn't fly safely at 45,000 feet, and oxygen supply to the passengers and pressurization wouldn't be adversely affected.
Winter weather coming back soon


Mar .20, 2014 9:19 am ET

Northeast

- After rain and snow showers Thursday, Friday will be mainly dry across the region.

- Some snow showers will linger over higher elevations of northern New York and northern New England overnight into Friday.

- A few scattered showers Friday across parts of western Pennsylvania.

- Friday highs will mainly range from the 40s to near 60 across the region.

- Possible East Coast winter storm by the middle of next week but details are still to be determined


Sunset near Cool Springs KY
@jrdusmc
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER TC GILLIAN (14U)
8:02 AM WIB March 21 2014
=============================================

A Cyclone WATCH continues for Christmas Island

A Cyclone WATCH continues for Lampung

A CYCLONE WARNING continues for East Java

A CYCLONE WARNING continues for Central Java

A Cyclone WARNING continues for West Java


At 7:00 AM WIB, Tropical Low, Former Gillian (1004 hPa) located at 10.0S 109.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The low is reported as moving west northwest at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS 10.2S 108.1E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 10.7S 106.9E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS 12.3S 105.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
60 HRS 13.9S 103.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1)

Ex-tropical cyclone Gillian is an impact on the weather conditions in parts of Indonesia such as:

- The potential for moderate to heavy rainfall in Lampung, Banten, Jakarta, West Java, Central Java and East Java
- Potential light rain in Bengkulu, South Sumatra, Bangka Belitung, South Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, Southern, South Sulawesi, Bali and Lombok
- Ocean waves 2-3 meters likely to occur in the waters south of Java, Indian Ocean south of Bali to NTB
- Ocean waves 3-4 feet likely occurred in the Indian Ocean south of Central Java to East Java
Quoting tramp96:
Senator Saxby Chambliss just said the transponder was turned off intentionally and then the plane stayed on course for a while before turning. He was on Megan Kelly's show.

There is no way to distinguish a transponder being turned off manually from one that fails for any number of causes when you're not on the plane, sitting in the cockpit. I don't see any evidence from his biography that he has previous experience as a pilot. He sat out the Vietnam War with a deferment for a bad knee. His most famous political statement was right after 9/11, when he told group of first responders that homeland security would be improved by turning the sheriff loose to "arrest every Muslim that crosses the state line." I personally wouldn't pay a lot of attention to him as an expert, even though he does sit on the Senate Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.
Quoting 247. sar2401:

Both pilots have two separate sources of oxygen. One is from a dedicated oxygen generator separate from the oxygen generators that feed the masks that drop down in the cabin. The other is bottled oxygen that has no connection to the airplane oxygen generators at all. The pilots are supposed to be on oxygen above about 15,000 feet but that's almost never the case. It's a pain to communicate if your mask is strapped on, and it's really uncomfortable for long periods of time. A fighter pilot has no choice, since the cockpit isn't pressurized, but a commercial cockpit is. The masks are generally loosely draped across your chest so you can grab it if you need to. Pilots also have access to smoke hoods, generally located in the seat side or armrest, so they can maneuver in a smoky, low visibility environment. A smoke hood generally gives you about 5-7 minutes of breathable air. I don't know the exact cockpit layout on MH370 or Malaysian Airlines policies, so those are just general rules and equipment. Some airlines also provide "pony" tanks, small oxygen tanks that can be strapped to your leg if you need to leave the cockpit for any reason.

One of the possible fire-fighting procedures is to reduce bleed air to the cabin and cockpit to provide a less oxygen rich environment for the fire. You can lower the oxygen concentration from a normal 17-19% to about 10-12% for a short time without causing passengers to become unconscious. It's not high up on the list of fire fighting procedures, but it can be used. I don't know where the 45,000 foot altitude figure came from, but I can't see why taking the plane up would help fight a fire or correct a mechanical failure. A 777 has a "never to exceed" ceiling of 43,000 feet, but that's for long term flying, so the skin of the fuselage doesn't get constantly overstressed. There's no reason a 777 couldn't fly safely at 45,000 feet, and oxygen supply to the passengers and pressurization wouldn't be adversely affected.

I don't know if you have watched CNN or not but they have a pilot in a simulator and they took it up to 45k and the thing went nuts. They said if the aircraft stayed at that altitude for very long it would result in disaster.
"he does sit on the Senate Senate Select Committee on Intelligence."

I think that is the main point
Quoting opal92nwf:
Pop up storm?

Radar artifact or chaff launch.
Quoting tramp96:

I don't know if you have watched CNN or not but they have a pilot in a simulator and they took it up to 45k and the thing went nuts. They said if the aircraft stayed at that altitude for very long it would result in disaster.

I almost never watch CNN. What do you mean by "it went nuts"? 45,000 feet would set off alarms, since that's above the "never-to-exceed" altitude of 43,00 feet. That means a 777 is only certified to 43,000 feet, so normal operation wouldn't be above that altitude. It can safely fly at 45,000. There's a reasonable story about the supposed ascent to 45,000 feet here.
Megan was interviewing a rep from Inmarsat. He said that they got seven pings from the plane. The satellite pings the plane when the transponder is off to see if it wants to communicate. The only way they can ping it is with the power turned on. The power comes from the engines.
Of course I don't know the inner workings of a 777 but that seems like a very selective power outage.
They didn't get an eight ping
Quoting tramp96:
"he does sit on the Senate Senate Select Committee on Intelligence."

I think that is the main point

Does not give him one whit of insight as to what happened in the cockpit. Intelligence agencies are speculating as much as everyone else. Senator Chambliss is not high up on the need to know ladder.
Quoting 256. sar2401:

I almost never watch CNN. What do you mean by "it went nuts"? 45,000 feet would set off alarms, since that's above the "never-to-exceed" altitude of 43,00 feet. That means a 777 is only certified to 43,000 feet, so normal operation wouldn't be above that altitude. It can safely fly at 45,000. There's a reasonable story about the supposed ascent to 45,000 feet here.

Yeah the alarms went nuts and they(pilot/trainer) said the plane would not last at that altitude for very long.
Quoting tramp96:
Megan was interviewing a rep from Inmarsat. He said that they got seven pings from the plane. The satellite pings the plane when the transponder is off to see if it wants to communicate. The only way they can ping it is with the power turned on. The power comes from the engines.
Of course I don't know the inner workings of a 777 but that seems like a very selective power outage.
They didn't get an eight ping

The transponder used in the 777 for Inmarsat pings is passive. It needs no power to respond to handshake requests. If the person being interviewed is an Inmarsat engineer, I'd expect that person to know that bit of information. If the person wasn't an engineer, that may be a different story.
Quoting 260. sar2401:

The transponder used in the 777 for Inmarsat pings is passive. It needs no power to respond to handshake requests. If the person being interviewed is an Inmarsat engineer, I'd expect that person to know that bit of information. If the person wasn't an engineer, that may be a different story.

Thats not what he said
Quoting tramp96:

Yeah the alarms went nuts and they(pilot/trainer) said the plane would not last at that altitude for very long.

Please read the story in the link I gave. There's a difference between flying for a long period of time at 45,000 and being able to fly at all at 45,000. If the plane wasn't able to fly at 45,000 at all, we should have seen immediate explosive decompression and the plane in pieces. That obviously did not happen.
Quoting 262. sar2401:

Please read the story in the link I gave. There's a difference between flying for a long period of time at 45,000 and being able to fly at all at 45,000. If the plane wasn't able to fly at 45,000 at all, we should have seen immediate explosive decompression and the plane in pieces. That obviously did not happen.

I didn't say that I said they couldn't stay up there for very long. If I remember correctly the main problem would have been engine failure.
Quoting 262. sar2401:

Please read the story in the link I gave. There's a difference between flying for a long period of time at 45,000 and being able to fly at all at 45,000. If the plane wasn't able to fly at 45,000 at all, we should have seen immediate explosive decompression and the plane in pieces. That obviously did not happen.


And apparently it at least made it hundreds if not over a thousand miles from that point.
Quoting 260. sar2401:

The transponder used in the 777 for Inmarsat pings is passive. It needs no power to respond to handshake requests.


Sorry, but sure, Sar?

Understanding ‘satellite pings’ – Tim Farrar
"...These are the “satellite pings” that have shown that MH370 was still powered on and active after the ACARS messages and radar transponder were turned off, because the terminal was responding to the requests from the Inmarsat network to confirm it was still connected...."

Malaysia Airlines didn’t buy computer upgrade that could have given data on missing flight
When is severe season? Neat graph from a tweet by SPC's Dr. Patrick Marsh.


Mets and social science working together to better communicate the level of danger.
Five Southern Region NWS offices will switch to impact-based warnings in a week or so - don't remember the exact date - Jackson, MS, San Angelo, Lubbock, Norman, and Tulsa. Used experimentally in Central Region offices for a year or two, the new wording in these warnings came out of focus groups and interviews done after 2011's devastating Joplin and Tuscaloosa tornadoes.
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



Jurassic mark: an ancient fern



* Spring in the air: Bonds tied to green investments are booming

* Air Pollution May Cause Genetic Harm in Kids, China Study Finds

Wildcatters Rush Spindletop in Return to East Texas Oil

*** Not Into Fracking? How About Some Nuclear Waste?


Giant pythons have 'homing instinct'

*** Warmer freshwater emits more methane

!!! Goldilocks principle: Earth's continued habitability due to geologic cycles that act as climate control

* Nanopores underlie our ability to tune in to a single voice: Inner-ear membrane uses tiny pores to mechanically separate sounds





*** Plankton make scents for seabirds and a cooler planet


!!! Animals losing migratory routes? Devasting consequences of scarcity of 'knowledgeable elders'

* Eyes are windows to the soul and evolution

* Tiny transistors for extreme environs: Engineers shrink plasma devices to resist radiation


Loblolly pine genome is largest ever sequenced: Seven times bigger than the human genome

Moon of Saturn: Surface of Titan sea is mirror smooth



*** Wind farms can provide society a surplus of reliable clean energy


!!! Algae may be a potential source of biofuels and biochemicals even in cool climate

* Dry future climate could reduce orchid bee habitat

!!! Ocean's carbon budget balanced: Supply of food to midwater organisms balanced with demands for food


Los Alamos lab turns to Texas to temporarily store radioactive waste

World Bank approves funds to study Congo's Inga dam


Regulators say Duke pumped coal ash into NC's Cape Fear River: eighth violation uncovered in last month.

* Desalination plant to be built in Gaza


Texas Fishing Report

*** Report: Climate change stunting fish

Big Bang Theory: More Bangs May Be Coming (But They Won't Hurt)

* Scientists Say Our Noses Can Sense at Least a Trillion Scents
Excellent article by Rober Pielke from the University of Colorado.



Disasters Cost More Than Ever — But Not Because of Climate Change

By Roger Pielke Jr.

In the 1980s, the average annual cost of natural disasters worldwide was $50 billion. In 2012, Superstorm Sandy met that mark in two days. As it tore through New York and New Jersey on its journey up the east coast, Sandy became the second-most expensive hurricane in American history, causing in a few hours what just a generation ago would have been a year’s worth of disaster damage.

Sandy’s huge price tag fit a trend: Natural disasters are costing more and more money. See the graph below, which shows the global tally of disaster expenses for the past 24 years. It’s courtesy of Munich Re, one of the world’s largest reinsurance companies, which maintains a widely used global loss data set. (All costs are adjusted for inflation.)

pielke-disaster-v3-1

In the last two decades, natural disaster costs worldwide went from about $100 billion per year to almost twice that amount. That’s a huge problem, right? Indicative of more frequent disasters punishing communities worldwide? Perhaps the effects of climate change? Those are the questions that Congress, the World Bank and, of course, the media are asking. But all those questions have the same answer: no.

When you read that the cost of disasters is increasing, it’s tempting to think that it must be because more storms are happening. They’re not. All the apocalyptic “climate porn” in your Facebook feed is solely a function of perception. In reality, the numbers reflect more damage from catastrophes because the world is getting wealthier. We’re seeing ever-larger losses simply because we have more to lose — when an earthquake or flood occurs, more stuff gets damaged. And no matter what President Obama and British Prime Minister David Cameron say, recent costly disasters are not part of a trend driven by climate change. The data available so far strongly shows they’re just evidence of human vulnerability in the face of periodic extremes.

To identify changes in extreme weather, it’s best to look at the statistics of extreme weather. Fortunately, scientists have invested a lot of effort into looking at data on extreme weather events, and recently summarized their findings in a major United Nations climate report, the fifth in a series dating back to 1990. That report concluded that there’s little evidence of a spike in the frequency or intensity of floods, droughts, hurricanes and tornadoes. There have been more heat waves and intense precipitation, but these phenomena are not significant drivers of disaster costs. In fact, today’s climate models suggest that future changes in extremes that cause the most damage won’t be detectable in the statistics of weather (or damage) for many decades.

On Earth, extreme events don’t happen in a vacuum. Their costs are rising, sure, but so is overall wealth. When we take that graph above and measure disaster cost relative to global GDP, it changes quite a bit.1

pielke-disaster-v3-2

Occasionally, big disasters bring outsize costs — especially the Kobe earthquake in 1995, Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the Honshu earthquake in 2011 — but the overall trend in disaster costs proportional to GDP since 1990 has stayed fairly level. Of course, wealthy countries hold all of the sway in worldwide cost estimates, which tips the scales when we’re looking for a “global” perspective on extreme events. U.S. hurricanes, for example, are responsible for 58 percent of the increase in the property losses in the Munich Re global dataset.

That’s just the property bill. There’s a human toll, too, and the data show an inverse relationship between lives lost and property damage: Modern disasters bring the greatest loss of life in places with the lowest property damage, and the most property damage where there’s the lowest loss of life. Consider that since 1940 in the United States 3,322 people have died in 118 hurricanes that made landfall. Last year in a poor region of the Philippines, a single storm, Typhoon Hayain, killed twice as many people.

We can start to estimate how countries may weather crises differently thanks to a 2005 analysis of historical data on global disasters. That study estimated that a nation with a $2,000 per capita average GDP — about that of Honduras – should expect more than five times the number of disaster deaths as a country like Russia, with a $14,000 per capita average GDP.2 (For comparison, the U.S. has a per capita GDP of about $52,000.)

In the 20th century, the human toll of disasters decreased dramatically, with a 92 percent reduction in deaths from the 1930s to the 2000s worldwide. Yet when the Boxing Day Tsunami struck Southeast Asia in 2004, more than 225,000 people died.

So the frequency of disasters still matters, and especially in countries that are ill-prepared for them. After 41 people died in two volcanic eruptions in Indonesia last month, a government official explained the high stakes: “We have 100 million people living in places that are prone to disasters, including volcanoes, earthquakes and floods. It’s a big challenge for the local and central governments.”

When you next hear someone tell you that worthy and useful efforts to mitigate climate change will lead to fewer natural disasters, remember these numbers and instead focus on what we can control. There is some good news to be found in the ever-mounting toll of disaster losses. As countries become richer, they are better able to deal with disasters — meaning more people are protected and fewer lose their lives. Increased property losses, it turns out, are a price worth paying.
Quoting 258. sar2401:

Does not give him one whit of insight as to what happened in the cockpit. Intelligence agencies are speculating as much as everyone else. Senator Chambliss is not high up on the need to know ladder.

Seriously. Do really think the US govt. has no clue to what is going on.
Several cities in the Midwest and Northeast have had extremely snowy winters this year. The following cities are consolidated statistical areas of more than 2 million people. Let's take a closer look:

Chicago:

1) 89.7 IN. 1978-1979
2) 82.3 IN. 1977-1978
3) 80.0 IN. 2013-2014

Will Chicago get to #2?

Detroit:


1) 93.6 IN. 1880-1881 (Laura Ingalls Wilder's The Long Winter)
2) 90.7 IN. 2013-2014

Detroit has a decent shot at #1. With a little luck will get to Isaac's 100" dream winter!

Indianapolis:


1) 58.2 IN. 1981-1982
2) 57.9 IN. 1977-1978
3) 55.1 IN. 2013-2014

Titan, Vulcan, and Wiley underperformed. I believe Indianapolis has missed their chance.

Philadelphia:


1) 78.7 IN. 2009-2010
2) 67.6 IN. 2013-2014

Will Philly get to #1? Next week may be the last chance. 19" fell there on April 3 1915.

Note: The Mount Holly NWS office has not put in the 2009-2010 season in their archive. It's only been 4 years! I had to add the monthly totals together. Extremely unsatisfactory.

New York City:

1) 75.6 IN. 1995-1996
2) 63.2 IN. 1947-1948
3) 61.9 IN. 2010-2011
4) 60.4 IN. 1922-1923
5) 60.3 IN. 1872-1873
6) 57.8 IN. 1874-1875
7) 57.4 IN. 2013-2014

It won't take a whole lot to move NYC up several spots. We'll see what next week's storm does.

Cincinnati:

1) 53.9 IN. 1977-1978
2) 47.3 IN. 1976-1977
3) 46.3 IN. 1950-1951
4) 46.1 IN. 2013-2014

#1 is doubtful but won't take much to take Cincinnati to #2

Columbus:

1) 67.8 IN. 1909-1910
2) 54.1 IN. 1995-1996
2) 54.1 IN. 1977-1978
4) 53.9 IN. 2013-2014

Won't take much to get Columbus OH to #2. #1 highly unlikely.
Let's see what the Bufkit Warehouse shows for the next week. Right click on images to expand.

Chicago:



Detroit:



Indianapolis:



Cincinnati:



Columbus, OH:




LaGuardia aiport, NY:



Philadelphia:

Quoting tramp96:

Seriously. Do really think the US govt. has no clue to what is going on.

I'm certain they do. I'm not certain that this Senator does.
Quoting 260. sar2401:

The transponder used in the 777 for Inmarsat pings is passive. It needs no power to respond to handshake requests. If the person being interviewed is an Inmarsat engineer, I'd expect that person to know that bit of information. If the person wasn't an engineer, that may be a different story.
What, no power is needed to ping back to the bird. Think again
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Several cities in the Midwest and Northeast have had extremely snowy winters this year. The following cities are consolidated statistical areas of more than 2 million people. Let's take a closer look:

Chicago:

1) 89.7 IN. 1978-1979
2) 82.3 IN. 1977-1978
3) 80.0 IN. 2013-2014

Will Chicago get to #2?

Detroit:


1) 93.6 IN. 1880-1881 (Laura Ingalls Wilder's The Long Winter)
2) 90.7 IN. 2013-2014

Detroit has a decent shot at #1. With a little luck will get to Isaac's 100" dream winter!

Indianapolis:


1) 58.2 IN. 1981-1982
2) 57.9 IN. 1977-1978
3) 55.1 IN. 2013-2014

Titan, Vulcan, and Wiley underperformed. I believe Indianapolis has missed their chance.

Philadelphia:


1) 78.7 IN. 2009-2010
2) 67.6 IN. 2013-2014

Will Philly get to #1? Next week may be the last chance. 19" fell there on April 3 1915.

Note: The Mount Holly NWS office has not put in the 2009-2010 season in their archive. It's only been 4 years! I had to add the monthly totals together. Extremely unsatisfactory.

New York City:

1) 75.6 IN. 1995-1996
2) 63.2 IN. 1947-1948
3) 61.9 IN. 2010-2011
4) 60.4 IN. 1922-1923
5) 60.3 IN. 1872-1873
6) 57.8 IN. 1874-1875
7) 57.4 IN. 2013-2014

It won't take a whole lot to move NYC up several spots. We'll see what next week's storm does.

Cincinnati:

1) 53.9 IN. 1977-1978
2) 47.3 IN. 1976-1977
3) 46.3 IN. 1950-1951
4) 46.1 IN. 2013-2014

#1 is doubtful but won't take much to take Cincinnati to #2

Columbus:

1) 67.8 IN. 1909-1910
2) 54.1 IN. 1995-1996
2) 54.1 IN. 1977-1978
4) 53.9 IN. 2013-2014

Won't take much to get Columbus OH to #2. #1 highly unlikely.


I'm really surprised that, with Cincinnati and Columbus both near #1 or #2 winters for winter snowfall that Cleveland isn't even in the running. My relatives there tell me it's basically been snowing since about Thanksgiving. The only variables has been light snow, moderate snow, or heavy snow. The last two weeks have finally moderated and people there were running around in shorts, happy as calms. Now they're about to go back into the deep freeze again. They said this winter has been quite the test of people's mental health.
Quoting nymore:
What, no power is needed to ping back to the bird. Think again

You apparently know more about passive transponders than I do. I'll leave it at that. I'm sure the blog is getting sick of this discussion.
Cleveland has had 77.0" of snow this season. Here is a list of the top 10 snowiest seasons. (scroll down to page 5).

They may be at #11. It wouldn't take a whole lot to get to #8.

Quoting luvtogolf:
Excellent article by Rober Pielke from the University of Colorado.



Disasters Cost More Than Ever — But Not Because of Climate Change

By Roger Pielke Jr.


Go back in the blog and take a look at some posts about this piece. There were what I consider some valid criticisms of Dr. Pielke's statistical methods used in this article. I'd like to know, for example, why he stopped his graph at 1990 when Munich Re has good data going back to 1980. I'm not convinced the only reason why disaster are bigger and cost more is due just to global worming but there are some compelling correlations.
Sar I suspect that what has gone wrong with Cleveland's snow season is that Lake Erie has been frozen for so long and cut off heavy lake effect snow events. A quick eyeball reading shows lots of days in Jan/Feb with snow but not a lot with heavy snow. The light snows kept piling up because it was so cold.
Look everyone... until the debris is found and the flight data recorder retrieved, anything anyone government or civil says, it is just speculation.

Please stop bickering
Quoting 243. tramp96:
Senator Saxby Chambliss just said the transponder was turned off intentionally and then the plane stayed on course for a while before turning. He was on Megan Kelly's show.


Does he get his intelligence delivered by turtles?
Could someone convert mph to kps.
Aussiestorm the world appreciates Australia's outstanding efforts to locate the wreckage of Flight 370. 3,000 mile round-trip flights are more difficult than most people realize in a search operation.
Quoting Andrebrooks:
Could someone convert mph to kps.

1mile = 1.6km
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CALOY
11:00 AM PhST March 21 2014
=================================================

Tropical Depression "CALOY" has slightly accelerated as it moves closer to Surigao del Sur and Davao Oriental area

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Caloy (1004 hPa) located at 7.7N 128.7E or 330 km east northeast of Davao City has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Signal Warnings
=================

Signal Warning #1

Mindanao region
----------------
1. Davao Oriental
2. Davao del Norte
3. Compostela Valley
4. Northern part of Davao del Sur
5. Davao City
6. Surigao del Sur
7. Surigao del Norte
8. Agusan del Sur
9. Agusan del Norte
10. North Cotabato
11. Bukidnon
12. Misamis Oriental

Additional Information
==========================

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Estimated rainfall amount is from 5–15 mm per hour (moderate to heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the tropical depression.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the northern seaboard of northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of northern and central Luzon due to the Northeast Monsoon.

The public and local DRRMCs concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
Quoting 206. Neapolitan:
Ever heard of Occam's Razor? Hence my use of the term "obvious". At any rate, it's common for knowledgeable types to be able to connect the dots that easily escape the notice of the average layperson.

Having said all that, if I'm widely off the mark with my theory, I'll admit it like always...


Yes... The simplest explanation is the most likely. Doesn't mean that's the case. If that's not the plane then what? Back to square one.


Hahahahahahaha, don't pat yourself on the back too hard you might pull something
Quoting 269. tramp96:

Seriously. Do really think the US govt. has no clue to what is going on.


I'm sure the US Govt has a clue, tramp.

However, if I was in the intelligence business, I wouldn't be telling someone like Senator Chambliss anything factual quite yet.

There's a difference between the US Govt agencies and personnel that are doing actual work and the Senator who wants to look as if he's responsible.
Chris Christie's State Agencies Are Worried About Climate Change, Even If He Isn't

Posted: 03/20/2014 6:29 pm EDT Updated: 03/20/2014 6:59 pm EDT

When it comes to climate change, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) has been wishy-washy, at the least.

"Climate change is real…[and] impacting our state," he said in August 2011. "Human activity plays a role in these changes."

But when asked about climate change's role in Hurricane Sandy, which ravaged his state in 2012, Christie was dismissive. "It's not a main concern for me," he said. "Now maybe, in the subsequent months and years, after I get done with trying to rebuild the state and put people back in their homes, I will have the opportunity to ponder the esoteric question of the cause of this storm."

Christie has also pulled his state out of a Northeastern regional plan to cut carbon emissions and eliminated the Office of Climate Change and Energy within the state's Department of Environmental Protection.

And yet his state officials are more than willing to acknowledge the reality of climate change, and plan for the threats it poses to New Jersey.

The state's new draft Hazard Mitigation Plan, which the New Jersey Office of Emergency Management released on March 11, includes a section on climate change impacts. It notes that the state has seen an increase in average annual temperatures of 1.2 degrees Fahrenheit (above the baseline average between 1970 and 2000), and anticipates that the average annual temperature in the state will increase of 3 to 5 degrees above that baseline by 2050. It also notes that average precipitation in the state increased five inches in the period of 1971 to 2000, which is 12 percent higher than the average from 1895 to 1970. The frequency of heavy precipitation events has also increased. The plan warns that these changes mean the state "may experience more flooding events."

"Future climate change may also lead to sea level rise which could lead to more frequent and extensive flooding," the plan says.

It continues:

Sea level rise increases the risks coastal communities face from coastal hazards (floods, storm surges, and chronic erosion). It may also lead to the loss of important coastal habitats. The historical rate of sea level rise along the New Jersey coast over the past 50 years was 0.12 to 0.16 inches per year. Future rates are predicted to increase to 0.5 inches/year (Miller and Kopp 2013). By 2050, the sea level is expected to rise 16 inches from the current mean (Rutgers 2013).
The plan also states that, "According to NASA, warmer temperatures may lead to an increase in frequency of storms, thus leading to more weather events that cause coastal erosion."

Every state has to submit a hazard mitigation plan to the Federal Emergency Management Agency in order to be eligible for disaster recovery assistance and mitigation funds. New Jersey's last plan was released in 2012, but was put together before the state was hit by Hurricane Irene in 2011 and Sandy in 2012.

The fact that the state's plan even acknowledges climate change at all might be a surprise to some Christie watchers. But some environmentalists in the state say that the plan falls far short of what's needed. The document "offers no plan to address flooding that will inundate some of the most populous Jersey Shore stretches," the group Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility said in a statement. "The plan is studded with obligatory references to scientific findings on the effects of climate change but does not integrate that science into state planning or changes in building codes, project designs, regulations, or plans to spend billions of federal aid dollars."

A public comment period on New Jersey's Hazard Mitigation Plan is open until April 11.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
When is severe season? Neat graph from a tweet by SPC's Dr. Patrick Marsh.


Mets and social science working together to better communicate the level of danger.
Five Southern Region NWS offices will switch to impact-based warnings in a week or so - don't remember the exact date - Jackson, MS, San Angelo, Lubbock, Norman, and Tulsa. Used experimentally in Central Region offices for a year or two, the new wording in these warnings came out of focus groups and interviews done after 2011's devastating Joplin and Tuscaloosa tornadoes.

This is a step in the right direction, but it's still too immersed in "correct" meteorology terms. For example, rather than saying "Tornado...observed", why not say "Tornado...seen on the ground by (add in who...law enforcement, trained spotters, etc). Instead of "Tornado...Radar Indicated", use "Tornado...seen on radar". Use "Tornado Danger...Substantial". Instead of "Catastrophic", use "Disastrous". I don't know how the focus groups were done, but one of the project goals was to "Better meet societal needs in the most life-threatening weather events." To me, that means using words that are as short as possible, to the point, and easily understood by people that don't have an extensive vocabulary.
Quoting 284. AussieStorm:

1mile = 1.6km
Thanks.
Quoting 197. ncstorm:
The GFS has slowly but surely been coming south and east with the snow..good trend..I hope it keeps with it..

On April 3, 1915 Raleigh NC had 10" of snow.

Some April snow events in North Carolina outside the Appalachian Mountains
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Aussiestorm the world appreciates Australia's outstanding efforts to locate the wreckage of Flight 370. 3,000 mile round-trip flights are more difficult than most people realize in a search operation.

Indeed. Australia only has 18 Orions, although their upgrades make them among the best maritime patrol aircraft in the world. They are being flown to the very edge of their range for every mission, and the pilots and crews are enduring 17 hour round trip flights. I get pretty miserable flying for three hours - I can't imagine 17 hours, and still having to be alert for the two hours they spend on station.
I guess I should mention this:

I got an e-mail from UNC-A today saying that I got accepted to their university.

First things first...they are the only university to not tell me via fat package of stuff through the mail. Disappointing? Yeah...

Second. They are the last college I was waiting to hear from. My first acceptance came months ago...I have to make my decision before May 1. Talk about crunch time.

Anywho, I have a college visit next week with OU. Might go to the college visit in April at UNC-A, but I didn't particularly care for their itinerary list.

Edit: Added clarification.
I do believe increasing wealth is partially to blame for a string of costlier natural disasters, though the prices are further exacerbated by climate change.

I mean, tell me if a storm exactly like Hugo hit South Carolina today (even with the onshore winds narrowly missing Charleston) that it wouldn't be at least $20-30 billion? I will admit that my understanding of the topic is limited but I do not believe that Hugo's price, even if adjusted for today's inflation, would be that severe.

*Spits drink out*

Quoting 295. TropicalAnalystwx13:
*Spits drink out*



*cleans shirt off after getting spit on*

Nice storm, btw.
Sweet snow dreams for everyone! :)



Quoting 295. TropicalAnalystwx13:
*Spits drink out*

How's calculus going Cody?

Flies That Do Calculus With Their Wings
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Sar I suspect that what has gone wrong with Cleveland's snow season is that Lake Erie has been frozen for so long and cut off heavy lake effect snow events. A quick eyeball reading shows lots of days in Jan/Feb with snow but not a lot of heavy snow. The light snows kept piling up because it was so cold.

I'm sure you're right, Brian. All the heavy snow seasons I remember weren't all the cold, so the lake never froze to any great extent, and the lake effect snows just kept piling up. I remember the 62-63 winter, when I was the human snow blower, that the lake finally froze about mid-February, and shoveling snow stopped being a daily task. My relatives say that, even with "only" 77" of snow, the combination of snow and cold this year is the worst they've ever had. Every single street already has potholes big enough to swallow a Fiat 500, and the thaw of the last two weeks has made that even worse. Yuck!
wxgeek723 the economy is now about 3 x as big in nominal dollars as it was in 1989. Dollar amount damages would triple on average vs the same storm 25 years ago.
Quoting 288. Patrap:
Chris Christie's State Agencies Are Worried About Climate Change, Even If He Isn't

Posted: 03/20/2014 6:29 pm EDT Updated: 03/20/2014 6:59 pm EDT

When it comes to climate change, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) has been wishy-washy, at the least.

"Climate change is real%u2026[and] impacting our state," he said in August 2011. "Human activity plays a role in these changes."

But when asked about climate change's role in Hurricane Sandy, which ravaged his state in 2012, Christie was dismissive. "It's not a main concern for me," he said. "Now maybe, in the subsequent months and years, after I get done with trying to rebuild the state and put people back in their homes, I will have the opportunity to ponder the esoteric question of the cause of this storm."

Christie has also pulled his state out of a Northeastern regional plan to cut carbon emissions and eliminated the Office of Climate Change and Energy within the state's Department of Environmental Protection.

And yet his state officials are more than willing to acknowledge the reality of climate change, and plan for the threats it poses to New Jersey.

The state's new draft Hazard Mitigation Plan, which the New Jersey Office of Emergency Management released on March 11, includes a section on climate change impacts. It notes that the state has seen an increase in average annual temperatures of 1.2 degrees Fahrenheit (above the baseline average between 1970 and 2000), and anticipates that the average annual temperature in the state will increase of 3 to 5 degrees above that baseline by 2050. It also notes that average precipitation in the state increased five inches in the period of 1971 to 2000, which is 12 percent higher than the average from 1895 to 1970. The frequency of heavy precipitation events has also increased. The plan warns that these changes mean the state "may experience more flooding events."

"Future climate change may also lead to sea level rise which could lead to more frequent and extensive flooding," the plan says.

It continues:

Sea level rise increases the risks coastal communities face from coastal hazards (floods, storm surges, and chronic erosion). It may also lead to the loss of important coastal habitats. The historical rate of sea level rise along the New Jersey coast over the past 50 years was 0.12 to 0.16 inches per year. Future rates are predicted to increase to 0.5 inches/year (Miller and Kopp 2013). By 2050, the sea level is expected to rise 16 inches from the current mean (Rutgers 2013).
The plan also states that, "According to NASA, warmer temperatures may lead to an increase in frequency of storms, thus leading to more weather events that cause coastal erosion."

Every state has to submit a hazard mitigation plan to the Federal Emergency Management Agency in order to be eligible for disaster recovery assistance and mitigation funds. New Jersey's last plan was released in 2012, but was put together before the state was hit by Hurricane Irene in 2011 and Sandy in 2012.

The fact that the state's plan even acknowledges climate change at all might be a surprise to some Christie watchers. But some environmentalists in the state say that the plan falls far short of what's needed. The document "offers no plan to address flooding that will inundate some of the most populous Jersey Shore stretches," the group Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility said in a statement. "The plan is studded with obligatory references to scientific findings on the effects of climate change but does not integrate that science into state planning or changes in building codes, project designs, regulations, or plans to spend billions of federal aid dollars."

A public comment period on New Jersey's Hazard Mitigation Plan is open until April 11.


Sadly the Christie administration has left the NJ shoreline wide open for another hurricane to wipe the barrier islands clean again. The rush to rebuild the shore towns in time for the summer tourist season resulted in a faulty storm defense system and infrastructure that is exactly as it was prior to Sandy. At least state officials are concerned, that's a start.

There are actually some fishing towns in southern areas of the state along the Delaware Bay shoreline that are facing relocation due to sea level rise. But since the area is largely rural and impoverished, it is very seldom given any attention.
Quoting 299. BaltimoreBrian:
How's calculus going Cody?

Flies That Do Calculus With Their Wings

Quoting Astrometeor:
I guess I should mention this:

I got an e-mail from UNC-A today saying that I got accepted to their university.

First things first...they are the only university to not tell me via fat package of stuff through the mail. Disappointing? Yeah...

Second. They are the last college I was waiting to hear from. My first acceptance came months ago...I have to make my decision before May 1. Talk about crunch time.

Anywho, I have a college visit next week with OU. Might go to the college visit in April at UNC-A, but I didn't particularly care for their itinerary list.

Edit: Added clarification.

I hope you go to the school you think you'll really like the most. That will be more important than any other criteria 20 years from now.
Cody you better work on that study plan!

Cody's smart enough to post images. But can he beat a fruit fly in calculus? ;)
Snow?

sNOw?

sNOW?
Quoting 302. wxgeek723:


Sadly the Christie administration has left the NJ shoreline wide open for another hurricane to wipe the barrier islands clean again. The rush to rebuild the shore towns in time for the summer tourist season resulted in a faulty storm defense system and infrastructure that is exactly as it was prior to Sandy. At least state officials are concerned, that's a start.

There are actually some fishing towns in southern areas of the state along the Delaware Bay shoreline that are facing relocation due to sea level rise. But since the area is largely rural and impoverished, it is very seldom given any attention.



But since the area is largely rural and impoverished, it is very seldom given any attention.

That would really make a great 80th entry for ya wxgeek723.


Quoting 305. BaltimoreBrian:
Cody you better work on that study plan!

Cody's smart enough to post images. But can he beat a fruit fly in calculus? ;)


You should've asked him to calculate the rate at which his fly swatter needs to move in order to swat the fly, assuming that the fly may be able to perform evasive maneuvers as the fly swatter is swishing through the air.

:-)
Quoting 306. BaltimoreBrian:
Snow?

sNOw?

sNOW?


After spring, Sneaux is of the Devil they say here.
After spring? Snow after June 21st would be pretty devilish in New Orleans ;)

Has New Orleans ever had snow flurries after the spring equinox?
Quoting 307. Patrap:



But since the area is largely rural and impoverished, it is very seldom given any attention.

That would really make a great 80th entry for ya wxgeek723.




An interesting suggestion. I can only imagine the horror WU bloggers will feel when I explain to them the emulation of Southernlike culture down there, in a place so misconceived to be entirely urbanized and Northern.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
wxgeek723 the economy is now about 3 x as big in nominal dollars as it was in 1989. Dollar amount damages would triple on average vs the same storm 25 years ago.

Not just that, but many more homeowners have replacement value insurance. That basically didn't exist in 1989. Damage estimates were just that...estimates. Now the insurance company is paying to replace your home more or less like it was before the disaster. It's actual expenditures for the insurance companies, so the estimates plus actuals are way higher than they used to be.
Quoting wxgeek723:


An interesting suggestion. I can only imagine the horror WU bloggers will feel when I explain to them the emulation of Southernlike culture down there, in a place so misconceived to be entirely urbanized and Northern.

Yes, but can you get decent cheese grits for breakfast? :-)
Quoting 314. sar2401:

Yes, but can you get decent cheese grits for breakfast? :-)


Key word: Southernlike :)

Definitely can't boast the cuisine pros.
Quoting 308. Astrometeor:


You should've asked him to calculate the rate at which his fly swatter needs to move in order to swat the fly, assuming that the fly may be able to perform evasive maneuvers as the fly swatter is swishing through the air.

:-)



The Pink Panther Super Fly Episode comes to mind.

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz,,Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz'


Quoting Astrometeor:


You should've asked him to calculate the rate at which his fly swatter needs to move in order to swat the fly, assuming that the fly may be able to perform evasive maneuvers as the fly swatter is swishing through the air.

:-)

Or how much wood could woodchuck chuck if a woodchuck could chuck wood? I'm sure there's some calculus in there. 8^)
Quoting 312. wxgeek723:


An interesting suggestion. I can only imagine the horror WU bloggers will feel when I explain to them the emulation of Southernlike culture down there, in a place so misconceived to be entirely urbanized and Northern.
But you have scrapple :)
Quoting 310. BaltimoreBrian:
After spring? Snow after June 21st would be pretty devilish in New Orleans ;)

Has New Orleans ever had snow flurries after the spring equinox?


Closet I member was the March 12th 93'Superstorm

Had "Thundersleet"

In some weird very strong backside storms as it pulled away and the cold wedge dug n to the Convective mass

Quoting 318. BaltimoreBrian:
But you have scrapple :)


Oh yes. Endemic to the area.

I consider the Mid Atlantic to be a sort of awkward transitioning phase between the South and New England, with a strange hybrid of both Northern culture and Southern culture. This is especially prevalent on the Delmarva. Though there are major cultural facets of the South, like the cuisine, that are absent.
Haven't seen anything like it since I reckon'
I grilled some bkfst scrapple filling in for a sick friends diner in Salsbury,Maryland in 87.

Man it was like grillin Hogs Head cheese.

That with sage and sausage Gravy.

I was stunned. LOL
I've gotten to like scrapple :)
Quoting 323. BaltimoreBrian:
I've gotten to like scrapple :)


I sometimes forget that you are a transplant Brian.

Why Baltimore? Wasn't your choice?
Quoting 323. BaltimoreBrian:
I've gotten to like scrapple :)


Night everyone.

Someone shoot me a wu-mail or leave a comment in my blog explaining to me what "scrapple" is. Neva' heard of it before.
Quoting wxgeek723:


Key word: Southernlike :)

Definitely can't boast the cuisine pros.

Ah, OK. There's no way any region can claim too much Southerness without good cheese grits...and deep fried squash, and sweet tea with enough sugar to curl your toes. :-) I don't know if you've ever read the history of the Mason-Dixon line but Delaware and southern New Jersey almost got included over the southern edge of the line. Delaware was a traditional slave state and, even though slavery was illegal in New Jersey, slave traders in Delaware had a lucrative business providing "apprentices" to farms in southern New Jersey. If it wasn't for shifts away from an agricultural economy based largely on tobacco to truck farming to feed the growing metropolises around them, there's a good chance that Delaware and South New Jersey would have been states in the Confederacy.
I like Baltimore, and wanted to have a home to come back to from various deployments. I'm within walking distance of the Inner Harbor and M&T Bank Stadium. I bought my condo here the first week of August 2001.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I've gotten to like scrapple :)

I thought scrapple was a game...or something...maybe pet food. :-)
Quoting Astrometeor:


Night everyone.

Someone shoot me a wu-mail or leave a comment in my blog explaining to me what "scrapple" is. Neva' heard of it before.

You don't want to know. :-)

GN, Astro.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Other than China, the big powers are going all out, aren't they?

Quoting 310. BaltimoreBrian:
After spring? Snow after June 21st would be pretty devilish in New Orleans ;)

Has New Orleans ever had snow flurries after the spring equinox?
Not to my knowledge. Would be awesome as hell if we did, though.
Quoting 326. sar2401:

Ah, OK. There's no way any region can claim too much Southerness without good cheese grits...and deep fried squash, and sweet tea with enough sugar to curl your toes. :-) I don't know if you've ever read the history of the Mason-Dixon line but Delaware and southern New Jersey almost got included over the southern edge of the line. Delaware was a traditional slave state and, even though slavery was illegal in New Jersey, slave traders in Delaware had a lucrative business providing "apprentices" to farm in southern New Jersey. If it wasn't for shifts away from an agricultural economy based largely on tobacco to truck farming to feed the growing metropolises around them, there's a good chance that Delaware and South New Jersey would have been states in the Confederacy.


Very interesting. That explains a lot about why the area behaves the way it does, actually. A lot of natives in rural areas of southern NJ and Delaware fly Confederate flags. Not sure if they understand the disconnect though, lol. Many people argue over the boundaries of the south. I believe that true Southern culture begins around Richmond, but you will spot the accent draw in rural areas as far north as the NJ Pinelands. There's a reason they call it South Jersey.
Terra pass of 94W.


Quoting 334. BaltimoreBrian:
Snow Climatology in New Orleans
3 snow events for Baton Rouge in 1973 in less than a month? Lemme at 'em!
Quoting barbamz:


Sorry, but sure, Sar?

Understanding %u2018satellite pings%u2019 %u2013 Tim Farrar
"...These are the %u201Csatellite pings%u201D that have shown that MH370 was still powered on and active after the ACARS messages and radar transponder were turned off, because the terminal was responding to the requests from the Inmarsat network to confirm it was still connected...."

Malaysia Airlines didn%u2019t buy computer upgrade that could have given data on missing flight

OK, one last time, and that's it. The Inmarsat passive transponders on the 777 can receive a ping, or handshake, and reflects it back, like shining a flashlight in a mirror. If Malaysian Airlines had purchased the Boeing Airplane Heath Maintenance system, which they did not, the handshake would have been the signal to turn on the active transponder, which does need power, and transmit a data stream. The only thing the response from the passive transponder told Inmarsat was the relative bearing from the geostationary satellite, again, much like shining a flashlight in a mirror at different angles will make the reflection escape at a different angle.

Since the satellite is stationary, a change in bearing from one hour to the next inferred that the airplane was still in the air, flying. It's a simple middle school geometry problem that tells searchers the plane was flying along a route shown by the changing bearings. Other than inference, Inmarsat has no idea if the airplane's engines were still running or the airplane was still moving because it was being carried along by geese. :-)
Quoting wxgeek723:


Very interesting. That explains a lot about why the area behaves the way it does, actually. A lot of natives in rural areas of southern NJ and Delaware fly Confederate flags. Not sure if they understand the disconnect though, lol. Many people argue over the boundaries of the south. I believe that true Southern culture begins around Richmond, but you will spot the accent draw in rural areas as far north as the NJ Pinelands. There's a reason they call it South Jersey.

Yep, really. Delaware and Kentucky were the only two Union states that also had organized units fighting on the Confederate side. Delaware did organize a secessionist vote, but a strong Unionist Governor and a Unionist majority in the Legislature, along with a few questionable changes in legislative procedure, assured that Delaware remained in the Union. The old saw about brother fighting brother was never more true than in Delaware. There were more members of families killed per thousand in Delaware fighting each other in the Civil War than any state other than Virginia, which is quite amazing, considering that Delaware, which, as slave state, never had the extensive slave holdings of states further south. South Jersey has been trying to get away from Trenton for the past 150 years, and would probably do so today if they weren't so heavily outvoted by the urban areas. The whole secessionist mood of that area of the country makes very interesting reading if you're into political and social science. So yes, many of those Confederate flags aren't just decorations. :-)
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:

Now that one should sell well up there, Brian.
Quoting Patrap:
I grilled some bkfst scrapple filling in for a sick friends diner in Salsbury,Maryland in 87.

Man it was like grillin Hogs Head cheese.

That with sage and sausage Gravy.

I was stunned. LOL

scrapple brings back memories, but shouldn't you be cooking boudian?
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #6
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER TC GILLIAN (14U)
2:37 PM WST March 21 2014
=============================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Low, Former Gillian (1004 hPa) located at 9.4S 108.4E or 320 km east northeast of Christmas Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving west at 14 knots.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Gillian has shown signs of intensification during the last 6 hours and is forecast to re-intensify into a tropical cyclone later today or during Saturday as it approaches Christmas Island. This has increased the risk of damaging winds (gale force winds) at Christmas Island. It is now also possible that destructive wind gusts (wind gusts in excess of 125 km/h) could occur on Christmas Island if the system continues to intensify and passes close to Christmas Island.

Gales are not expected on the island during Friday but they could develop early Saturday morning. The period of greatest risk is now expected to commence during Saturday and continue into Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
===================================

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for Christmas Island
F unny
story, the ECWMF weather model is predicting a 952mb weather system
sitting on the coast of Maine in 204 hours! (That's a long way out, so
both intensity and position could be quite wrong)

But if that does happen, the storm would be the strongest storm to EVER hit Maine!
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER TC GILLIAN (14U)
14:59 PM WIB March 21 2014
=============================================

At 13:00 PM WIB, Tropical Low, Former Gillian (1004 hPa) located at 9.6S 107.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving west northwest at 16 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS 10.0S 106.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 10.8S 105.1E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS 12.7S 103.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 14.5S 102.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1)

Ex-tropical cyclone Gillian is an impact on the weather conditions in parts of Indonesia such as:

- The potential for moderate to heavy rain in Bengkulu, Lampung, Banten, Jakarta, West Java, Central Java and East Java
- Potential light rain in South Sumatra, Bangka Belitung, South Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, Southern, South Sulawesi, Bali and Lombok.
- Ocean waves 2-3 meters likely to occur in the waters south of Java, Indian Ocean south of Bali to NTB
- Ocean waves 3-4 feet likely occurred in the Indian Ocean south of Central Java to East Java.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
====================================

A Cyclone WATCH continues for Lampung

A CYCLONE WARNING continues for East Java

A CYCLONE WARNING continues for Central Java

A Cyclone WARNING continues for West Java
Weather update from Sky News Australia and Sky News Weather from earlier today for the search area.



You might need to turn the volume up, sorry.
Nice. So it looks like a very 'cool' month particularly over the NH because the heat hid in the Arctic, which is where climate revisionists will not find it.
Good Morning!...............................
GFS is sticking to that..storm here on tuesday...
beach was packed here yesterday..should be today also..
Quoting 331. KoritheMan:

Not to my knowledge. Would be awesome as hell if we did, though.


It snowed on 7 April 2007, the day before Easter, in west central Louisiana. It snowed, big fat flakes, for several hours.
350. VR46L
Good Morning Folks!
Quoting 335. Skyepony:
Terra pass of 94W.

TD Caloy.
352. yoboi
Quoting 350. VR46L:
Good Morning Folks!



good fri morn......
Quoting 303. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I take Mathxl too.
354. VR46L
Bit of a storm expected to run up the east Coast

Quoting 325. Astrometeor:


Night everyone.

Someone shoot me a wu-mail or leave a comment in my blog explaining to me what "scrapple" is. Neva' heard of it before.
Breakfast sausage is the stuff that's too gross to sell as regular meat; scrapple is the stuff that's too gross to sell as breakfast sausage. And my Mid-Atlantic relatives somehow can't get enough of the stuff...
Al Roker just said "blizzard" for the Eastcoast next week.
357. VR46L
Quoting 352. yoboi:



good fri morn......


You too Yoboi !
Good morning.

Snow should be flying in the mid Atlantic with this setup.
Quoting 356. Sfloridacat5:
Al Roker just said "blizzard" for the Eastcoast next week.



I don't see a Blizzard on the models this morning. Storm seems to be too far offshore to produce much in the way of significant impacts. Maybe some rain and wind over Cape Cod but that's about it.
Quoting 354. VR46L:
Bit of a storm expected to run up the east Coast

Does it show any meaningful impacts to D.C?
Quoting 361. StormTrackerScott:



I don't see a Blizzard on the models this morning. Storm seems to be too far offshore to produce much in the way of significant impacts. Maybe some rain and wind over Cape Cod but that's about it.


I don't see "blizzard" either, but I do see snow for many areas of the Mid Atlantic region.

Quoting 362. washingtonian115:
Does it show any meaningful impacts to D.C?


I don't see any washi.

Quoting 363. Sfloridacat5:


I don't see "blizzard" either, but I do see snow for many areas of the Mid Atlantic region.



Very very light snow infact less than 3" in most areas again though these models can change but it appears there is some "hyping" going on at TWC this morning. Again on the 0Z and 06Z runs the storm is to far offshore but a shift west could mean much more in the way of significant impacts.

Quoting 356. Sfloridacat5:
Al Roker just said "blizzard" for the Eastcoast next week.
Everything is about ratings.Way to early to make that call.
Quoting 359. AussieStorm:


Link



Good morning to the man down under.
Quoting 365. StormTrackerScott:


Very very light snow infact less than 3" in most areas again though these models can change but it appears there is some "hyping" going on at TWC this morning.



Definately won't be a "blizzard" for most regions because temperatures will not be all that cold, especially around the D.C. area.
Probably be a wet snow that melts soon after its over.

But I would expect to see some snow in the D.C. area.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Al Roker just said "blizzard" for the Eastcoast next week.


lol... he should know that models can change, especially 1 week out. Just wants to create a headline.
370. VR46L
Quoting 362. washingtonian115:
Does it show any meaningful impacts to D.C?


Just seems to be a rainy



Storm very windy off shore



06 GFS
Quoting 369. AussieStorm:


lol... he should know that models can change, especially 1 week out. Just wants to create a headline.


Yeah, but don't forget it's really not that far out. Today is Friday and the snow is expected on Tuesday/Tuesday night.
He probably wanted to the the 1st to say it just in case there is a storm. He can say "you heard it hear first."

Here's the forecast for Baltimore for next Tuesday from the NWS.
Tuesday Rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Tuesday Night A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Quoting 365. StormTrackerScott:


Very very light snow infact less than 3" in most areas again though these models can change but it appears there is some "hyping" going on at TWC this morning. Again on the 0Z and 06Z runs the storm is to far offshore but a shift west could mean much more in the way of significant impacts.
Not saying whether there will or won't be a blizzard next week--I would guess probably not--but remember that the official definition of "blizzard" has nothing to do with the amount of snow that falls, but rather the strength of the wind and the depth of the temperature. And judging by the forecast maps, both could exceed the official threshold...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1253 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014

VALID 12Z MON MAR 24 2014 - 12Z FRI MAR 28 2014


...NOR`EASTER BOMB INDICATED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...


Excerpt:

SOME OF THE DEEPEST EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONES IN MODERN
RECORD-KEEPING HAVE AFFECTED THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES DURING
THE MONTH OF MARCH--THEIR GENESIS AFFORDED BY THE MONTH`S NATURAL
BAROCLINIC INSTABILITY.

ONCE SUCH PERTURBATION IS PROGGED TO GROW VIGOROUSLY AS IT LIFTS
UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING, THEN BOMB OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE JET STRENGTHENS VIA AN
INJECTION OF ARCTIC AIR FROM THE MIDWEST.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Good morning to the man down under.


Good evening Scott.

Will anyone be watching the L.A Dodgers v Arizona Diamondback over the weekend?

Weather is meant to be pretty fine for Saturdays games with the slight chance of Thunderstorms, high of 82°F. Sunday is meant to be partly cloudy with the possibility of a few passing showers, high 81°F . Both days are sold out.
For West Palm Beach...

Quoting 373. nrtiwlnvragn:
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1253 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014

VALID 12Z MON MAR 24 2014 - 12Z FRI MAR 28 2014


...NOR`EASTER BOMB INDICATED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...


Excerpt:

SOME OF THE DEEPEST EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONES IN MODERN
RECORD-KEEPING HAVE AFFECTED THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES DURING
THE MONTH OF MARCH--THEIR GENESIS AFFORDED BY THE MONTH`S NATURAL
BAROCLINIC INSTABILITY.

ONCE SUCH PERTURBATION IS PROGGED TO GROW VIGOROUSLY AS IT LIFTS
UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING, THEN BOMB OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE JET STRENGTHENS VIA AN
INJECTION OF ARCTIC AIR FROM THE MIDWEST.
Sounds like something out of a Hollywood sci-fi movie.
Quoting 372. Neapolitan:
Not saying whether there will or won't be a blizzard next week--I would guess probably not--but remember that the official definition of "blizzard" has nothing to do with the amount of snow that falls, but rather the strength of the wind and the depth of the temperature. And judging by the forecast maps, both could exceed the official threshold...


Temps are only marginal and whatever snow that falls may not stick.

Quoting 373. nrtiwlnvragn:
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1253 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014

VALID 12Z MON MAR 24 2014 - 12Z FRI MAR 28 2014


...NOR`EASTER BOMB INDICATED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...


Excerpt:

SOME OF THE DEEPEST EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONES IN MODERN
RECORD-KEEPING HAVE AFFECTED THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES DURING
THE MONTH OF MARCH--THEIR GENESIS AFFORDED BY THE MONTH`S NATURAL
BAROCLINIC INSTABILITY.

ONCE SUCH PERTURBATION IS PROGGED TO GROW VIGOROUSLY AS IT LIFTS
UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING, THEN BOMB OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE JET STRENGTHENS VIA AN
INJECTION OF ARCTIC AIR FROM THE
MIDWEST.


Sit back and watch how things develop over the weekend.
Can someone tell KXAN News in Austin Texas that this is not where Perth is located. What a Mega fail. Wouldn't know geography if their head was a world globe.



thanks to @TheWAWG
380. VR46L
Quoting 377. StormTrackerScott:


Temps are only marginal and whatever snow that falls may not stick.



Scott , It appears as though hyperbole is very popular with NBC and NBC fans .....
Now if the Canadian verifies then watchout.

382. VR46L
Quoting 379. AussieStorm:
Can someone tell KXAN News in Austin Texas that this is not where Perth is located. What a Mega fail. Wouldn't know geography if their head was a world globe.



thanks to @TheWAWG


LMAO .... Thats Hobart !
Quoting 380. VR46L:


Scott , It appears as though hyperbole is very popular with NBC and NBC fans .....


I agree. Canadian does have the storm much further west and the Canadian has been pretty good since the upgrade maybe even better than the GFS.



Quoting VR46L:


LMAO .... Thats Hobart !


It's Perth, Tasmania, a suburb of metro Hobart. But you'd think they would know the Indian Ocean is on the west side of Australia. Why would planes be flying from Perth, Tasmania.
Quoting 379. AussieStorm:
Can someone tell KXAN News in Austin Texas that this is not where Perth is located. What a Mega fail. Wouldn't know geography if their head was a world globe.



thanks to @TheWAWG


LOL!! Again this is Austin. If you have been there then you would know.
Orlando. No threat of Winter weather here.

Gonna be a steamy day on the northside of Orlando today.

Quoting 379. AussieStorm:
Can someone tell KXAN News in Austin Texas that this is not where Perth is located. What a Mega fail. Wouldn't know geography if their head was a world globe.



thanks to @TheWAWG


Wiki is your friend.
They probably have maps of the U.S. with Washington D.C. where San Deigo is located.

Remember everything is opposite (right is left and left is right) when they're using the green-screen.

Extreme Weather in India on Friday, 21 March, 2014 at 04:14 (04:14 AM) UTC.
Description
At least four persons, including a child, were killed and 41 injured when a storm hit Meghalaya's West Khasi Hills district leaving over 190 houses damaged and several people homeless in at least ten villages, officials said today. "Four persons, including a five-month-old baby, have died and 41 others were hospitalised with seven of them in serious condition due to the storm which struck parts of West Khasi Hills district last night, about 40 minutes drive from the district headquarter Nongstoin," Deputy Commissioner S Kharlyngdoh told PTI. He said the storm struck at around 7.30 PM and wreaked havoc in ten villages in the Nongstoin and Mawthadraishan blocks, affecting more than 130 families. Among those who were injured in the cyclone, seven were taken to the state capital Shillong for better treatment, Kharlyngdoh said, adding while many were left homeless, the district administration has rushed essential commodities like food, water and tarpaulin to the affected villages. Special camps have been set up in school buildings. Power supply has been badly affected across most parts of the district as electric posts were damaged. Field officers were ascertaining the loss incurred in the disaster, he added. State Revenue and Disaster Management Minister R C Laloo, who convened an emergency meeting in Shillong, announced an ex-gratia payment of Rs. 1.5 lakh to the next of kin of those killed in the storm.


Extreme Weather in India on Friday, 21 March, 2014 at 04:18 (04:18 AM) UTC.
Description
As many as 23 Maharashtra farmers ended their lives after unseasonal rain and hailstorm damaged their crop recently. While 10 victims belonged to Aurangabad, six each hailed from the underdeveloped Vidarbha region and Nashik and one from Sangli. The incident has rattled the ruling Congress-Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) combine in the run-up to the Lok Sabha polls, as it feared the opposition would make it a political issue. Nearly 1.5 to 1.7 million hectares in 165 talukas in the state had been severely damaged. A state government official, who is currently involved in the preparation of relief package for the farmers, told Business Standard: "Farmers have committed suicides in areas where standing crops, including wheat, jowar, pomegranate, grapes, mangoes, were damaged. In some cases, farmers had already tied up with traders for their returns but were left to see the damaged crop the next day." Opposition parties, including the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Shiv Sena, have slammed the state government for the alleged apathy towards farmers and the way it handled the crisis. BJP's prime ministerial candidate, Narendra Modi, will, on Thursday, meet farmers from the affected areas and also hold Chai pe Charcha with farmers across the country during his maiden visit to Vidarbha, the epicentre of farmer suicides. Proposed visit of Modi has put the government on the defensive. However, Union Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar, who had extensively travelled in the affected villages last week, swung into action and said the central and state governments will provide assistance in the best possible way. Besides, Chief Minister Prithviraj Chavan has made an appeal to farmers not to take any extreme step. He said his government was committed to provide all assistance despite model code of conduct was in place for the Lok Sabha elections. Chavan said the government has already appealed to the Centre to provide Rs 5,000 crore for relief and rehabilitation.
Flash Flood in Vanuatu on Friday, 21 March, 2014 at 04:22 (04:22 AM) UTC.
Description
In Vanuatu, a custom chief from Puarante Village in South Santo says it was not a landslide that wiped his village out but a flash flood measuring about 17 metres high. The chief made the clarification to Prime Minister Moana Carcasses and the Acting Director General Albert William who visited the village by helicopter this week. The chief says several days earlier an entire hill crumbled into the river bed, three kilometres behind the village in the mountains. A huge body of water started collecting behind the walls and he says he sent his son to Puarante Village many times to warn the villagers to move to higher ground, but they refused to move. A flash flood swept away the village at night killing at least eight people. Two of the bodies have not been found. Meanwhile the Australian High Commission, World Vision, Sanma Province, the police and local communities and businesses have provided assistance to the victims of the flood as well as Cyclone Lusi.
391. ARiot
Quoting 381. StormTrackerScott:
Now if the Canadian verifies then watchout.



I'm not a model geek yet, but I'm working on it.

One guy I follow on facebook is in full-on, all-caps, snowpocalypse, Miller B mode for the 25-26 event. He's a Euro fan I think.

It's loaves, milk and rolls from DC to Boston.

This early, that's a bit of a wishcast.

But even the NWS has a note within the Bay wind warnings today about the impending doom and/or "light wintry precipitation event".



Disasters Cost More Than Ever — But Not Because of Climate Change
By Roger Pielke Jr.


In the 1980s, the average annual cost of natural disasters worldwide was $50 billion. In 2012, Superstorm Sandy met that mark in two days. As it tore through New York and New Jersey on its journey up the east coast, Sandy became the second-most expensive hurricane in American history, causing in a few hours what just a generation ago would have been a year’s worth of disaster damage.

Sandy’s huge price tag fit a trend: Natural disasters are costing more and more money. See the graph below, which shows the global tally of disaster expenses for the past 24 years. It’s courtesy of Munich Re, one of the world’s largest reinsurance companies, which maintains a widely used global loss data set. (All costs are adjusted for inflation.)



In the last two decades, natural disaster costs worldwide went from about $100 billion per year to almost twice that amount. That’s a huge problem, right? Indicative of more frequent disasters punishing communities worldwide? Perhaps the effects of climate change? Those are the questions that Congress, the World Bank and, of course, the media are asking. But all those questions have the same answer: no.

When you read that the cost of disasters is increasing, it’s tempting to think that it must be because more storms are happening. They’re not. All the apocalyptic “climate porn” in your Facebook feed is solely a function of perception. In reality, the numbers reflect more damage from catastrophes because the world is getting wealthier. We’re seeing ever-larger losses simply because we have more to lose — when an earthquake or flood occurs, more stuff gets damaged. And no matter what President Obama and British Prime Minister David Cameron say, recent costly disasters are not part of a trend driven by climate change. The data available so far strongly shows they’re just evidence of human vulnerability in the face of periodic extremes.

To identify changes in extreme weather, it’s best to look at the statistics of extreme weather. Fortunately, scientists have invested a lot of effort into looking at data on extreme weather events, and recently summarized their findings in a major United Nations climate report, the fifth in a series dating back to 1990. That report concluded that there’s little evidence of a spike in the frequency or intensity of floods, droughts, hurricanes and tornadoes. There have been more heat waves and intense precipitation, but these phenomena are not significant drivers of disaster costs. In fact, today’s climate models suggest that future changes in extremes that cause the most damage won’t be detectable in the statistics of weather (or damage) for many decades.

On Earth, extreme events don’t happen in a vacuum. Their costs are rising, sure, but so is overall wealth. When we take that graph above and measure disaster cost relative to global GDP, it changes quite a bit.1



Occasionally, big disasters bring outsize costs — especially the Kobe earthquake in 1995, Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the Honshu earthquake in 2011 — but the overall trend in disaster costs proportional to GDP since 1990 has stayed fairly level. Of course, wealthy countries hold all of the sway in worldwide cost estimates, which tips the scales when we’re looking for a “global” perspective on extreme events. U.S. hurricanes, for example, are responsible for 58 percent of the increase in the property losses in the Munich Re global dataset.

That’s just the property bill. There’s a human toll, too, and the data show an inverse relationship between lives lost and property damage: Modern disasters bring the greatest loss of life in places with the lowest property damage, and the most property damage where there’s the lowest loss of life. Consider that since 1940 in the United States 3,322 people have died in 118 hurricanes that made landfall. Last year in a poor region of the Philippines, a single storm, Typhoon Hayain, killed twice as many people.

We can start to estimate how countries may weather crises differently thanks to a 2005 analysis of historical data on global disasters. That study estimated that a nation with a $2,000 per capita average GDP — about that of Honduras – should expect more than five times the number of disaster deaths as a country like Russia, with a $14,000 per capita average GDP.2 (For comparison, the U.S. has a per capita GDP of about $52,000.)

In the 20th century, the human toll of disasters decreased dramatically, with a 92 percent reduction in deaths from the 1930s to the 2000s worldwide. Yet when the Boxing Day Tsunami struck Southeast Asia in 2004, more than 225,000 people died.

So the frequency of disasters still matters, and especially in countries that are ill-prepared for them. After 41 people died in two volcanic eruptions in Indonesia last month, a government official explained the high stakes: “We have 100 million people living in places that are prone to disasters, including volcanoes, earthquakes and floods. It’s a big challenge for the local and central governments.”

When you next hear someone tell you that worthy and useful efforts to mitigate climate change will lead to fewer natural disasters, remember these numbers and instead focus on what we can control. There is some good news to be found in the ever-mounting toll of disaster losses. As countries become richer, they are better able to deal with disasters — meaning more people are protected and fewer lose their lives. Increased property losses, it turns out, are a price worth paying.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #8
TROPICAL CYCLONE GILLIAN. CATEGORY ONE (14U)
9:03 PM WST March 21 2014
=============================================

At 7:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Gillian, Category One (999 hPa) located at 9.6S 107.2E or 190 km east northeast of Christmas Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 13 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===================
30 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
40 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
30 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Tropical Cyclone Gillian has re-intensified into a tropical cyclone in the last 6 hours and is expected to intensify further as it approaches Christmas Island. Damaging winds (gale force winds) are expected to affect Christmas Island from early Saturday morning and possibly persist into Sunday.

It is also possible that destructive wind gusts (wind gusts in excess of 125 km/h) could occur on Christmas Island if the system continues to intensify and passes closer to Christmas Island than currently forecast. The period of greatest risk is expected to commence early on Saturday and continue into Sunday.

Heavy rainfall is likely on Christmas Island during Saturday and Sunday.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS 10.0S 105.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 10.7S 104.2E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS 13.3S 102.6E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS 15.5S 101.9E - 60 knots (CAT 2)

Additional Information
========================

Analysis position is based on infrared satellite imagery and microwave imagery. Confidence remains relatively low due to the rapid translation of the system and lack of good scatterometer passes. Shear has dropped over the last 24 hours and system organization has markedly improved.

Curved band analyses have given 0.6 wrap for most images in the last 6 hours, giving a DT average of 3.0. MET is 2.5 based on a D trend and PAT is 3.0 and FT and CI at 3.0.NESDIS ADT has CI 2.8 & CIMMS ADT is 2.5. Analyzed intensity is set to 35 knots.

Environmental conditions will remain unfavorable for the next 48 hours and a steady intensification trend is forecast. Based on current forecast, system will encounter unfavorable shear conditions and cooler SST, with a weakening trend expected to commence from Monday morning. There is, however, some divergence in forecast intensity among model members.

The system is being steered towards the west by a mid-level ridge to the south. A developing middle level cut-off low to the south will cause a break in the ridge and help steer the system towards the southwest on Saturday and Sunday close to Christmas Island. Model guidance is in reasonable agreement on the forecast track.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
===================================

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for Christmas Island
Gillian:
Al Roker just said "blizzard" for the Eastcoast next week. NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!
396. VR46L
Quoting 395. hurricanes2018:
Al Roker just said "blizzard" for the Eastcoast next week. NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!


Its a bit early yet , Th forecast will change over the next 4-5 days . Question is ,will it get cool enough,and will it stay off shore far enough not to effect you .
Given model consensus, saying New England...at least the coastal sections of New England...may be getting a blizzard is not exaggerating. In fact, if model guidance is right, the conditions on Cape Cod may exceed blizzard criteria by a wide margin.
398. NCstu
Quoting 397. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Given model consensus, saying New England...at least the coastal sections of New England...may be getting a blizzard is not exaggerating. In fact, if model guidance is right, the conditions on Cape Cod may exceed blizzard criteria by a wide margin.
Good thing I'm not moving to Boston until April.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL CYCLONE GILLIAN, CATEGORY ONE (14U)
20:39 PM WIB March 21 2014
=============================================

Ex-tropical cyclone Gillian is an impact on the weather conditions in parts of Indonesia such as:
- The potential for moderate to heavy rain in Bengkulu, Jambi, South Sumatra, Central Java, eastern, Yogyakarta, and East Java.
- Potential light rain in Lampung, Banten, Jakarta, West Java, Central Java to the west and north, Bali, and NTB
- Ocean waves 2-3 meters likely to occur in the southern part of the Sunda Strait, and the waters to the south Banten Central Java
- Ocean waves 3-4 feet likely occurred in the Indian Ocean to the south Banten Central Java.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
====================================
A Cyclone WATCH continues for Southern Sumatra

A Cyclone WATCH continues for East Java

A Cyclone WARNING continues for Lampung

A CYCLONE WARNING continues for Central Java

A Cyclone WARNING continues for West Java
Quoting 395. hurricanes2018:
Al Roker just said "blizzard" for the Eastcoast next week. NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!



I am drawing ... my line .. in the sand (or mud) and saying,

I will plant broccoli, potatoes, and lettuce in my DC area
garden no later than Thursday March 27!


So there Boreas!!
Quoting 397. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Given model consensus, saying New England...at least the coastal sections of New England...may be getting a blizzard is not exaggerating. In fact, if model guidance is right, the conditions on Cape Cod may exceed blizzard criteria by a wide margin.


You mean model consensus staying well offshore. Not that I don't agree with you but right now most models are well offshore with this system. Again they could shift back west to early though to make the "Blizzard call". Just saying.
Euro a week out. Severe weather possible if it pans out..
must be a strong cold front coming next week......
hopefully south florida gets some of this rain.....
alot of sheer,yeah going to be stormy once again when it gets here..gee..
Stay safe and enjoy the weather Largo.
guess the warnings monday will mention slight risk of tornado's here again..
Quoting 406. Dakster:
Stay safe and enjoy the weather Largo.
yes TY..beautiful day or two ahead for us.
Some Vacation this young man got..do NOT hit wild birds.......................CLEARWATER --
An Illinois man was arrested Wednesday on a felony animal cruelty charge for striking a seagull twice with an umbrella pole on Clearwater Beach, according to police.

Ryan Lesle, 21, told officers that he was trying to disperse a flock of seagulls and connected with one bird by striking it on the left wing, according to an arrest affidavit. Lesle said he struck the seagull again to "take it out of it's misery", according to the report. A veterinarian had to euthanize the bird.


A Clearwater Beach lifeguard witnessed part of the incident near Pier 60 and called police. Lesle initially took off running but later returned to the scene and admitted to the crime, according to police.

Barbara Walker with the Clearwater Audubon Society said seagulls swarm beach goers because people either leave food out or purposely feed the birds.

"I could say it a hundred times over, do not feed the birds, do not feed the birds," she said. "It will create unwanted behavior."

Chiron Williams, 22, traveled from Land O' Lakes to Clearwater Beach on Thursday and said tourists feeding seagulls is a problem.

"They just swarm everywhere and they (tourists) don't understand that causes chaos for everybody," she said. "It frustrates people that actually live here and already know how to handle all the seagulls."


Walker said it's against the law to kill any wild bird and if one is accidentally injured help should be sought out immediately.

"I understand he was not from this area but he could have sought local help nearby," said Walker. "It sounds like a very poor choice was made."

Lesle was released from the Pinellas County jail Thursday on a $5,000 surety bond. Bay News 9 called Lesle's cell phone but was unable to reach him for comment.
Quoting 409. LargoFl:
Some Vacation this young man got..do NOT hit wild birds.......................CLEARWATER --
An Illinois man was arrested Wednesday on a felony animal cruelty charge for striking a seagull twice with an umbrella pole on Clearwater Beach, according to police.

Ryan Lesle, 21, told officers that he was trying to disperse a flock of seagulls and connected with one bird by striking it on the left wing, according to an arrest affidavit. Lesle said he struck the seagull again to "take it out of it's misery", according to the report. A veterinarian had to euthanize the bird.


A Clearwater Beach lifeguard witnessed part of the incident near Pier 60 and called police. Lesle initially took off running but later returned to the scene and admitted to the crime, according to police.

Barbara Walker with the Clearwater Audubon Society said seagulls swarm beach goers because people either leave food out or purposely feed the birds.

"I could say it a hundred times over, do not feed the birds, do not feed the birds," she said. "It will create unwanted behavior."

Chiron Williams, 22, traveled from Land O' Lakes to Clearwater Beach on Thursday and said tourists feeding seagulls is a problem.

"They just swarm everywhere and they (tourists) don't understand that causes chaos for everybody," she said. "It frustrates people that actually live here and already know how to handle all the seagulls."


Walker said it's against the law to kill any wild bird and if one is accidentally injured help should be sought out immediately.

"I understand he was not from this area but he could have sought local help nearby," said Walker. "It sounds like a very poor choice was made."

Lesle was released from the Pinellas County jail Thursday on a $5,000 surety bond. Bay News 9 called Lesle's cell phone but was unable to reach him for comment.
Poor guy... even more, ah, poor bird...

Morning all. Great wx here today... currently 77 and breezy, with temps expected to hit 82 before the day is out... Wish I could go sit on the beach instead of being at work... lol...

Later, all.
Quoting 385. StormTrackerScott:


LOL!! Again this is Austin. If you have been there then you would know.


I live in Austin, so please Scott, tell me what I should know? There are lots of highly educated individuals in this area. Just because a mistake was made in a local broadcast, probably by someone who makes less than $25k/year doing their job, doesn't condemn an entire metropolitan area.

Mistakes happen, even at larger networks. Although that is a rather large geographic mistake.
Quoting 379. AussieStorm:
Can someone tell KXAN News in Austin Texas that this is not where Perth is located. What a Mega fail. Wouldn't know geography if their head was a world globe.



thanks to @TheWAWG
This looks like software error. Amazing that nobody picked it up, tho...

I keep telling people around me to pay attention to the details... lol...
Quoting 411. IUCramer:


I live in Austin, so please Scott, tell me what I should know? There are lots of highly educated individuals in this area. Just because a mistake was made in a local broadcast, probably by someone who makes less than $25k/year doing their job, doesn't condemn an entire metropolitan area.

Mistakes happen, even at larger networks. Although that is a rather large geographic mistake.


It's not merely the fact that it's a howler of a mistake, it's a very odd one to make. How do you confuse Hobart, in Tasmania, with Perth in Western Australia?

If there was a town in Tasmania called Perth, you could understand it, but otherwise . . .
It's not merely the fact that it's a howler of a mistake, it's a very odd one to make. How do you confuse Hobart, in Tasmania, with Perth in Western Australia?

If there was a town in Tasmania called Perth, you could understand it, but otherwise . . .




once again though.....one person made a mistake....criticize a whole city for it?....bet we could find idiots in any city any of us live in without much of a problem
415. NCstu
Quoting 409. LargoFl:
Some Vacation this young man got..do NOT hit wild birds.......................CLEARWATER --
An Illinois man was arrested Wednesday on a felony animal cruelty charge for striking a seagull twice with an umbrella pole on Clearwater Beach, according to police.

Ryan Lesle, 21, told officers that he was trying to disperse a flock of seagulls and connected with one bird by striking it on the left wing, according to an arrest affidavit. Lesle said he struck the seagull again to "take it out of it's misery", according to the report. A veterinarian had to euthanize the bird.


A Clearwater Beach lifeguard witnessed part of the incident near Pier 60 and called police. Lesle initially took off running but later returned to the scene and admitted to the crime, according to police.

Barbara Walker with the Clearwater Audubon Society said seagulls swarm beach goers because people either leave food out or purposely feed the birds.

"I could say it a hundred times over, do not feed the birds, do not feed the birds," she said. "It will create unwanted behavior."

Chiron Williams, 22, traveled from Land O' Lakes to Clearwater Beach on Thursday and said tourists feeding seagulls is a problem.

"They just swarm everywhere and they (tourists) don't understand that causes chaos for everybody," she said. "It frustrates people that actually live here and already know how to handle all the seagulls."


Walker said it's against the law to kill any wild bird and if one is accidentally injured help should be sought out immediately.

"I understand he was not from this area but he could have sought local help nearby," said Walker. "It sounds like a very poor choice was made."

Lesle was released from the Pinellas County jail Thursday on a $5,000 surety bond. Bay News 9 called Lesle's cell phone but was unable to reach him for comment.
I eat chicken. Not quite sure how this is any worse than that. I also kill any number of other living things during the course of a day.. insects, bacteria, plants, etc. Obviously we need to draw a line on what animals are ok to mercilessly kill, but I draw my line above non-endangered birds.
416. NCstu
Quoting 411. IUCramer:


I live in Austin, so please Scott, tell me what I should know? There are lots of highly educated individuals in this area. Just because a mistake was made in a local broadcast, probably by someone who makes less than $25k/year doing their job, doesn't condemn an entire metropolitan area.

Mistakes happen, even at larger networks. Although that is a rather large geographic mistake.
I would hasten to mention that Australia is roughly the size of enormous, has a population less than the NYC metro area, is 10,000 miles away and is not even tangentially relevant to the lives of most Americans. It's like if you added the populations of North Carolina and Virginia, spread them out over most of the US, made their exports negligible, and then snarked at some news person somewhere near the moon because he wasn't up on his geography.
417. NCstu
Quoting 416. NCstu:
I would hasten to mention that Australia is roughly the size of enormous, has a population less than the NYC metro area, is 10,000 miles away and is not even tangentially relevant to the lives of most Americans. It's like if you added the populations of North Carolina and Virginia, spread them out over most of the US, made their exports negligible, and then snarked at some news person somewhere near the moon because he wasn't up on his geography.
Although, I'm still not sure how you mislabel a map given the technology available today.
M 6.5 - 113km E of Mohean, India

PAGER - GREENShakeMap - VDYFI? - I
Time2014-03-21 06:41:07 UTC-07:00Location7.769N 94.325EDepth10.0km

thought things were calming down
I eat chicken. Not quite sure how this is any worse than that. I also kill any number of other living things during the course of a day.. insects, bacteria, plants, etc. Obviously we need to draw a line on what animals are ok to mercilessly kill, but I draw my line above non-endangered birds.



i think though what is important...is that he purposely harmed...and then tried to kill this bird...not for consumption...but because it was reported as an annoyance to him
Quoting 417. NCstu:
Although, I'm still not sure how you mislabel a map given the technology available today.


It could be one of a litany of reasons. I would wager that it was a graphic made in photoshop. I'd also speculate that the person who made it perhaps didn't take the time to double check the image as they should have. Why? Perhaps they were running behind, perhaps they were up against a deadline and had something else that they were asked to create on top of this graphic as well. Local news can be a circus atmosphere at times and things get by and on air that are cringe-worthy on a semi-regular basis.

I would imagine that this graphic was only used once before it was corrected.
Sounds like how we treat children today not wanted kill them.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
423. NCstu
Quoting 419. ricderr:
I eat chicken. Not quite sure how this is any worse than that. I also kill any number of other living things during the course of a day.. insects, bacteria, plants, etc. Obviously we need to draw a line on what animals are ok to mercilessly kill, but I draw my line above non-endangered birds.



i think though what is important...is that he purposely harmed...and then tried to kill this bird...not for consumption...but because it was reported as an annoyance to him
He was definitely being a richard, but boo for involving law enforcement. In other news, my cat has been apprehended for a lifelong killing spree involving rabbits, birds, mice, moles, and bats. Not only did he fail to eat most of them, but he intentionally prolonged their demise for his own amusement. He is now serving 36 consecutive life sentences in a local animal shelter.
Quoting 417. NCstu:
Although, I'm still not sure how you mislabel a map given the technology available today.
Had to be software error. Something wasn't entered right... I can easily see just a wrong keystroke causing something like this... but it is the lack of checking that caused the real problem.

Quoting 419. ricderr:
I eat chicken. Not quite sure how this is any worse than that. I also kill any number of other living things during the course of a day.. insects, bacteria, plants, etc. Obviously we need to draw a line on what animals are ok to mercilessly kill, but I draw my line above non-endangered birds.



i think though what is important...is that he purposely harmed...and then tried to kill this bird...not for consumption...but because it was reported as an annoyance to him
Impression I got from the article is that he was treating it like a horse... the wing was injured [not on purpose, more like collateral damage] so the bird couldn't fly anymore... why not just kill it so it wouldn't feel any more pain...

Sigh.

Some bad choices for sure...
Boston NWS.......THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE A COASTAL STORM WILL
DEVELOP...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON ITS EXACT TRACK. IMPACTS ON
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE THIS STORM
TRACKS TO OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST RISK FOR STRONG
WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS. A SUBTLE SHIFT IN STORM TRACK OF LESS THAN 100 MILES
FARTHER WEST WOULD MEAN A GREATER IMPACT ACROSS MORE OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.
Quoting 72. Gearsts:

If we don't get and el nino...

...