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Heavy Rains Make Modest Dent in California Drought

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:05 PM GMT on February 27, 2014

A very moist “Pineapple Express” atmospheric river of moisture from the Hawaiian Islands is bringing much-needed rains to nearly all of California today. As of 7 am PST Thursday, Downtown Los Angeles had received 0.97" of rain since midnight. The last calendar day when Los Angeles received more than 1" of rainfall was over two years ago--Oct. 5, 2011, when 1.15” fell. Substantial rains also fell in Central California, and heavy rains triggered a rock slide that shut down Highway 1 in Big Sur Wednesday night.


Figure 1. Total precipitable water (TPW) for Thursday, February 27, 2014. TPW is how much rain (in inches) would fall at a given location if one condensed out all of the water vapor in a column above the location into rain. For reference, 1 inch = 25.4 mm. A narrow “Atmospheric River” of moisture is seen extending from the subtropics near Hawaii into Southern California. A larger pulse of moisture is curled up a few hundred miles offshore, and will arrive on Friday. Image credit: University of Wisconsin SSEC.


Figure 2. Rains that fell over California on February 8 - 9 raised water levels on the critical Central California reservoir Folsom Lake by twelve feet in one day, and boosted water levels above the record low levels set during 1977. Rainfall in the Folsom Lake drainage basin on February 26 - 27 has been about 0.5 - 1.5", which will raise the lake level even more. Image credit: California Department of Water Resources.

An even wetter storm coming Friday and Saturday to California
A second, stronger storm system will hit California on Friday and Saturday, generating 1 - 3" rainfall
totals for most coast and valley locations in Southern California, with 3 - 6" in the foothills and coastal mountain slopes. The powerful storm will be capable of spawning severe thunderstorms with wind gusts in excess of 58 mph, and a few waterspouts and weak tornadoes. The NWS office in Los Angeles is warning that Friday and Saturday's storm has the potential to bring rainfall rates of up to 1 - 2" per hour in the foothills and coastal mountain slopes, which will be capable of causing debris flows in areas recently burned by fires. About a foot of snow will likely fall from 6000 feet to 7000 feet, and 1 - 3' of snow is likely above 7000 feet. In the Sierras of Central California, 1 - 2' of snow is expected.

This storm, which has been named "Titan", will move eastwards over the weekend,and an Arctic front will combine with moisture associated with Titan to produce near-blizzard conditions across the northern Rockies Friday into Friday night. As it moves through the Central Plains, the storm will strengthen and begin to pull Gulf moisture northward into the cold air, triggering moderate to heavy snows across portions of Kansas, Nebraska and Missouri Saturday night into Sunday. The snow will spread across Illinois, Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia, and portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. on Monday, and along the southern side of the snow band, a significant ice storm is likely. The ice storm will affect Oklahoma through Southern Missouri, northern Arkansas and northern Kentucky Saturday night and Sunday, and by Sunday night, parts of the Mid-Atlantic across Virginia and Maryland may also see significant icing. Small changes in the track of the storm will move the areas of freezing rain tens of miles north or south of the current forecast, so stay tuned to the latest forecasts.


Figure 3. The February 25, 2014 U.S. Drought Monitor showed 95% of California in drought, with 26% of the state in the highest level of drought, "Exceptional." Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Drought situation in California still extreme despite today's rains
While this week's rains and snows in California are a welcome respite, they will put only a modest dent in what is one of the worst droughts in California history. Today's U.S. Drought Monitor showed that the portion of the state in "Exceptional Drought"--the worst category of drought--was 26%, nearly double the previous week's value. This year is the first year since the Drought Monitor product began in 2000 that portions of California have been in "Exceptional Drought". California's area experiencing the two highest categories of drought, extreme to exceptional, increased to 74% this week, and only 5% of the state was not in drought (the Mojave Desert region of Southeast California, where almost no agriculture happens anyway, since it is desert.) To break the drought, much of the state needs more than 12" of precipitation.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt discusses how this week's storm will affect California rainfall totals in his latest post.


Video 1. The new ‪Radius ‬hyper-local weather information app‪, powered by Weather Underground‬

Wunderground Releases New Hyper-Local Weather Information App
Weather Underground released today a new app for iPhone and iPod touch called Radius™. Using Radius™, users can set a designated radius from a desired location to receive free push notifications of NWS severe alerts, lightning, and precipitation heading into that area. Our new predictive radar tool can then be used to determine precisely when to take cover.

With thousands of weather apps available to smartphone users, we set out to build a completely new way for people to receive hyper-local weather information. Radius ensures that its users are the first to know about severe weather in their area, while also delivering an interactive experience that only Weather Underground’s community-sourced data can provide. We have an unrivaled network of personal weather stations--more than 21,000 across the U.S.--and images from over 12,000 webcams. Even when there isn’t active weather, Radius™ provides an engaging experience for users to browse community wunderphotos and webcam images.

The app can be downloaded at: ‪https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/radius-local-weather-alerts/id811351397?ls=1&mt=8‬

Jeff Masters

Drought

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

.27" of rain last night
Monthly total 1.33"
at my location in Fort Myers.
Current temp 53.9 degrees

7 day
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 35 degrees and feels like 35 degrees. It supposed to warm up to 64 this afternoon with a slight chance of rain. Today is Mardi Gras day and Dr. Suess day. It's going to be a crazy day at school. The Mardi Gras Parade will be a ton of fun with the kids and their floats, but it's going to still be cold while doing it as it's only going to be about 47 degrees by nine am. Hopefully parents will put coats on their kids today. You would not believe how many kids came to school yesterday with temps in the low 30's and no coats!

Breakfast's on the sideboard: creamed chipped beef over biscuits, Cajun Breakfast Casserole, Apple-Pecan Baked Oatmeal, Green Chili Breakfast Burrito Casserole, fluffy biscuits with sausage gravy, Cinnamon Pecan Rolls, Spinach & Dubliner Cheese Egg Cups, Red-Pepper omelet, Sausage Strata, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Peppermint White Hot Chocolate, regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
Can Neil de Grasse Tyson Bring His Own Magic To Sagan’s Cosmos? Oh Yes!

Posted by Dan Satterfield

The first episode of the new COSMOS airs on March 9th (worldwide on Fox, and National Geographic Channel in many countries). Neil de Grasse Tyson (Director of the Hayden Planetarium in New York) has been thought of by many of my fellow science geeks to be THE person to do a much-needed update of Carl Sagan’s epic tour of the Universe, and that means filling some big shoes. Sagan died in 1996, but he was perhaps the most famous American scientist of his time, and his PBS series COSMOS is the most watched PBS series ever. It’s still discovered anew every year by thousands of younger students who were not even alive when he died in 1996, but it is now seriously dated and new discoveries have rewritten the science text books since 1980.

The new Cosmos could not come at a more needed time. Let’s face it, we live in a country where the only people who understand the metric system are scientists and drug dealers, and 25% of the population believes the Sun revolves around the Earth! I won’t go so far as to say that the new version of Cosmos will turn around the seemingly precipitous decline in science literacy, but it sure can’t hurt, and Tyson will have the opportunity to share this amazing new knowledge with millions world-wide who know either nothing, or very little of these discoveries.

Episode One



[...]

The new series uses modern digital effects to make an updated version of Sagan’s “spaceship” (used as a mind vehicle to travel to the stars), but most of episode one is built around shrinking all of the 13,700 million years since the big bang into ONE calendar year of time. This means each month covers about 1,400 million years and each day 38 million years. It’s a superb way of helping people to get their head around the concept of deep time and how we humans are such a tiny blip in it (appearing only in the last hour of the last day of the year on New Year’s Eve).

Tyson illustrates the history of our universe using this calendar, and picks the day when our ancestors first crawled from the sea, then exploring how the mammals (that would eventually evolve into us) survived and thrived, after the giant asteroid doomed the dinosaurs. There is ample coverage in part one of scientists who were imprisoned by the church for their belief in a solar centric universe, and I was reminded of the efforts of Virginia’s Attorney General to prosecute Penn. State Climatologist Dr. Michael Mann, the creator of the most famous scientific graph of the last 25 years and perhaps the last 50.

I guess some things never change.


Michael Mann’s famous “Hockey Stick” reminds me of similar attacks on scientists who realized the Sun not the Earth was the center of our solar system.

One other thing caught my attention, and it illustrates the times we live in so very well. In the first episode, Tyson covers The big bang, biological evolution,and the greenhouse effect (all long accepted, and well understood scientific discoveries). Based on their statements, I wonder how many members of the U.S. Congress from Georgia, Oklahoma, or Texas would publicly admit to them. Things have indeed changed a lot since Cosmos premiered in 1980!

If the rest of the episodes are as good as the first one, then it will inspire countless students to want to learn more, and I suspect many of them will end up as future researchers. Some will probably make new world-changing discoveries, and perhaps a few will run for congress! I hope and highly recommend that science teachers around the world use these episodes as a way to inspire and educate!

Complete article >>
Whatever hits florida thurs/friday goes up the east coast...stay tuned......................THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 10AM FOR MUCH OF THE
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES.
wow off california today..............
Quoting 429. BaltimoreBrian:
Gotta give the rave face crater a space all by itself :)

This would make a good avatar for somebody!

Replace yours with it.
Quoting 478. sar2401:

I'm familiar with the Drake equation. Statistically, there's no doubt life exists somewhere in the universe. With all the talk about "hospitable" planets, I wonder what the chances are that we have a twin out there somewhere. It seems as like a planet that's a close double of Earth would have a form of life develop that was at least recognizable to use. Getting to other planets outside our solar system seems to be an insoluble problem though. Assuming Einstein is still right, we can never travel faster than the speed of light and we can't even get close the the speed of light except in particle accelerators. Unless future scientists come up with some kind of warp speed, this planet is pretty much it for us.


According to Einstein's special theory of relativity, a particle (that has rest mass) with subluminal velocity needs infinite energy to accelerate to the speed of light. It does not prohibit particles traveling faster than the speed of light.

The universe is expanding faster than the speed of light.

Our understanding of time and space is still in its infancy.
513. beell
ADDED: This may end up better than 5%

SPC Day 1 13Z Probabilistic Tornado (click image for discussion and additional Outlook graphics
Good Morning. Here are the current US temps.

Brrrrrrrr

Aviation Image
Quoting 512. PressureDrop:


According to Einstein's special theory of relativity, a particle (that has rest mass) with subluminal velocity needs infinite energy to accelerate to the speed of light. It does not prohibit particles traveling faster than the speed of light.

The universe is expanding faster than the speed of light.

Our understanding of time and space is still in its infancy.
...and...according to Wikipedia! LMAO.
I pay for the no-advertisement option on this site. Building the adds into the blog... that is cheating and uncool.
Quoting 515. Waltanater:
...and...according to Wikipedia! LMAO.


And according to Einstein's special theory of relativity.
Einstein pretty much nailed it as many studies have shown over the years as verified through science since Relativity was published in 1916.

I was amazed about 20 years ago when they confirmed his theory that gravity can "bend" light and they confirmed this one with the solar studies with the star that should have been covered by the Sun, just before emerging over the solar horizon, became visible; the light from the star was bent around and over the horizon by the Sun's gravitational pull before actually becoming visible over the horizon.

He gets my vote for most brilliant scientist ever; about as close to Klaatu as we have ever gotten here on Earth.
Quoting 505. Xandra:
Did The Farmers Almanac Winter Forecast Verify?? Nope!
But the groundhog was dead on.
Quoting 519. floridaT:
But the groundhog was dead on.
He should be DEAD on the ground!
Wow! Lol
Quoting 519. floridaT:

But the groundhog was dead on.

Quoting 505. Xandra:
Did The Farmers Almanac Winter Forecast Verify?? Nope!


I think the important question you should be asking if NOAA Winter Forecast Verify?? Nope..
Quoting 516. biff4ugo:
I pay for the no-advertisement option on this site. Building the adds into the blog... that is cheating and uncool.
Who really cares!?
Quoting 524. ncstorm:


I think the important question you should be asking if NOAA Winter Forecast Verify?? Nope..


When does a NOAA weather forecast EVER verify. Can you guys see post# 521 as it shows up on my computer but it may not show up on others?
San Francisco, CA (KMUX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

Quoting 522. SFLWeatherman:
Wow! Lol
Looks like winter refuses to leave...lol.
While the rest of the Country in freezing C & S FL have had a non winter this year.

Quoting 529. washingtonian115:
Looks like winter refuses to leave...lol.


JB says long range models show snow on the ground from NC to New England in early April! If that were to verify then that would be very impressive.
Quoting 526. StormTrackerScott:


When does a NOAA weather forecast EVER verify. Can you guys see post# 521 as it shows up on my computer but it may not show up on others?


I see it
Quoting 529. washingtonian115:
Looks like winter refuses to leave...lol.
I love it! Constant bombardment! I hope NY/LI gets SLAMMED!
Quoting 532. ncstorm:


I see it


That system on the Euro is no joke huh. That would give you and I one heck of a storm. Question is will it hold on the models thru the weekend as southern stream system can be hard to model.
CMC














Quoting 534. Waltanater:
I love it! Constant bombardment! I hope NY/LI gets SLAMMED!


Great then I have a present for you.

Quoting 524. ncstorm:


I think the important question you should be asking if NOAA Winter Forecast Verify?? Nope..
The anti-science silliness never ends for some, does it? The Farmer's Almanac long-range forecasts are drawn up by some old feller sitting at a manual typewriter, and they're based on a combination of guesswork, superstition, and wishful thinking. NOAA's, on the other hand, are based on climatology, observation, and the work of dozens of dedicated professionals working with the most powerful tools available. The former have less validity than your average coin toss; the latter verify again and again and again.

It's so sad to watch this once great nation fall ever deeper into the dank pits of anti-intellectualism, don't you think?
Quoting 536. StormTrackerScott:


That system on the Euro is no joke huh. That would give you and I one heck of a storm. Question is will it hold on the models thru the weekend as southern stream system can be hard to model.


It can't locked down on tracking though as each run goes from winter precip to no winter precip for us..the ensemble memebers though have been increasing in numbers in showing winter precip for my area so the trend is my friend right now..I dont want ice..I want to see snow..
Euro Ensemble mean take the Gulf low across C FL and up the SE Coast.

nice looking storm
Quoting 539. Neapolitan:
The anti-science silliness never ends for some, does it? The Farmer's Almanac long-range forecasts are drawn up by some old feller sitting at a manual typewriter, and they're based on a combination of guesswork, superstition, and wishful thinking. NOAA's, on the other hand, are based on climatology, observation, and the work of dozens of dedicated professionals working with the most powerful tools available. The former have less validity than your average coin toss; the latter verify again and again and again.

It's so sad to watch this once great nation fall ever deeper into the dank pits of anti-intellectualism, don't you think?


I dunno...

When does American Idol start back up again? Anyone know?
Quoting 539. Neapolitan:
The anti-science silliness never ends for some, does it? The Farmer's Almanac long-range forecasts are drawn up by some old feller sitting at a manual typewriter, and they're based on a combination of guesswork, superstition, and wishful thinking. NOAA's, on the other hand, are based on climatology, observation, and the work of dozens of dedicated professionals working with the most powerful tools available. The former have less validity than your average coin toss; the latter verify again and again and again.

It's so sad to watch this once great nation fall ever deeper into the dank pits of anti-intellectualism, don't you think?


Whats your point..you seem to rant on anything in the mornings lately..I was just trying to state why post about some Farmers almanac weather forecast not verifying when he/she needs to be posting about NOAA's not verifying..shouldnt that be the important question and not some almanac that isnt in the business of saving lives?

I tell you what's sad..Its sad to see you come on here every morning and jump down someone's throat..

Quoting 539. Neapolitan:
The anti-science silliness never ends for some, does it? The Farmer's Almanac long-range forecasts are drawn up by some old feller sitting at a manual typewriter, and they're based on a combination of guesswork, superstition, and wishful thinking. NOAA's, on the other hand, are based on climatology, observation, and the work of dozens of dedicated professionals working with the most powerful tools available. The former have less validity than your average coin toss; the latter verify again and again and again.

It's so sad to watch this once great nation fall ever deeper into the dank pits of anti-intellectualism, don't you think?



No coffee yet?
546. NCstu
why hello Dixie Alley. Right on time this year I see.
Quoting 545. StormTrackerScott:



No coffee yet?


Its every morning now..I'm thinking of sending him a gift certificate to Starbucks through email..I know its hot in florida..maybe the heat getting to him?
548. ARiot
Well thanks to ncstorm and his CMC post, I won't take the top and doors off my Jeep for a while, even if tempted by the supposed 30/50 average temps we're supposed to be having into March.

Dang buzzkiller. :-P
Quoting 548. ARiot:
Well thanks to ncstorm and his CMC post, I won't take the top and doors off my Jeep for a while, even if tempted by the supposed 30/50 average temps we're supposed to be having into March.

Dang buzzkiller. :-P


JB says not even in early April.
all snow in the northeast no more mix on the coast.
A local met said we have had snow accumulation in mid april and snow falling as late as may 4 here in eastern nc
552. VR46L
Good Morning Folks!


Quoting 548. ARiot:
Well thanks to ncstorm and his CMC post, I won't take the top and doors off my Jeep for a while, even if tempted by the supposed 30/50 average temps we're supposed to be having into March.

Dang buzzkiller. :-P


I thought Buzz Killers show the possibility of good conditions, show the going out to sea type posts..... Not Nasty storms ....



553. NCstu
Quoting 551. absurfer:
A local met said we have had snow accumulation in mid april and snow falling as late as may 4 here in eastern nc
is there a "skeptical" emoticon. I feel like I need that one.
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2h

Sick Joke??? 00z CFSV2 has its 3 runs with deep snowcover still in ne corridor. IN FIRST WEEK OF APRIL pic.twitter.com/2bRCarDdW0


Off the coast of CA...



STS,

I get two red X's for 521.

504:
The new Cosmos series is a profound confusion for me. I trust National Geographic and Neil DGT has a solid background that often impresses and I generally support. The ROCK STAR SCIENCE is totally the way to go and may require Neil to put on a Geordi Visor.

But on FOX????!!!!!???? Which side of the animations burning scientists at the stake are they going to be on?
Quoting 537. ncstorm:
CMC














looks like a cold nor'easter like storm up the east coast wow
558. flsky
I imagine they're beginning to lose viewers. This is probably an attempt to get some "from the other side."
Quoting 556. biff4ugo:
STS,

I get two red X's for 521.

504:
The new Cosmos series is a profound confusion for me. I trust National Geographic and Neil DGT has a solid background that often impresses and I generally support. The ROCK STAR SCIENCE is totally the way to go and may require Neil to put on a Geordi Visor.

But on FOX????!!!!!???? Which side of the animations burning scientists at the stake are they going to be on?
then nam gives washi a lot of snow and ice..




wow
560. flsky
I feel your pain. It is very sad, isn't it.

Quoting 539. Neapolitan:
The anti-science silliness never ends for some, does it? The Farmer's Almanac long-range forecasts are drawn up by some old feller sitting at a manual typewriter, and they're based on a combination of guesswork, superstition, and wishful thinking. NOAA's, on the other hand, are based on climatology, observation, and the work of dozens of dedicated professionals working with the most powerful tools available. The former have less validity than your average coin toss; the latter verify again and again and again.

It's so sad to watch this once great nation fall ever deeper into the dank pits of anti-intellectualism, don't you think?
GFS/ECMWF also agree that a big gulf low will pass the SE in 7 or 8 days, bringing a miserable cold and windy rain. could set the stage for a noreaster later down the road if it were to materialize
562. flsky
This looks more and more like "be careful what you wish for."

Just realized today is our best chance for a sharknado :)




Quoting 560. flsky:
I feel your pain. It is very sad, isn't it.



This nation isnt falling any deeper into anything than it has forever been. Opinions and counter-opinions on this and many other subjects have existed since our nation's founding. We are not more "anti-intellectual" than we were before
565. VR46L
Quoting 521. StormTrackerScott:




Scott If you want to share Weatherbell stuff you need to use Imgur or other photo hosting site to post the stuff

For example



Most will see that image

but few will see this one



566. flsky
Depending on your browser, there is an app that blocks all ads. It's wonderful. I have Chrome.

Quoting 516. biff4ugo:
I pay for the no-advertisement option on this site. Building the adds into the blog... that is cheating and uncool.
567. yoboi
Quoting 544. ncstorm:


Whats your point..you seem to rant on anything in the mornings lately..I was just trying to state why post about some Farmers almanac weather forecast not verifying when he/she needs to be posting about NOAA's not verifying..shouldnt that be the important question and not some almanac that isnt in the business of saving lives?

I tell you what's sad..Its sad to see you come on here every morning and jump down someone's throat..



He might be upset with the Greenpeace person testifying how AGW was a hoax.....
This nation isnt falling any deeper into anything than it has forever been. Opinions and counter-opinions on this and many other subjects have existed since our nation's founding. We are not more "anti-intellectual" than we were before


i would agree with this.....i think it's just think it's easier to hear them now
Quoting 564. GeorgiaStormz:


This nation isnt falling any deeper into anything than it has forever been. Opinions and counter-opinions on this and many other subjects have existed since our nation's founding. We are not more "anti-intellectual" than we were before


That's debatable. It may be the voices are louder and it may be there are more voices, and it may be a combination. One thing is for certain, the voices are more organized thanks to mass communication.
Quoting 567. yoboi:


He might be upset with the Greenpeace person testifying how AGW was a hoax.....


Hardly, that story was quickly torn apart by reality. He wasn't really a co-founder of Greenpeace, he really isn't an expert on anything climate related, but lo and behold, he did write a book about it!
he did write a book about it!


i wrote a song about it...like to hear it...here it goes



Quoting 544. ncstorm:


Whats your point..you seem to rant on anything in the mornings lately..I was just trying to state why post about some Farmers almanac weather forecast not verifying when he/she needs to be posting about NOAA's not verifying..shouldnt that be the important question and not some almanac that isnt in the business of saving lives?

I tell you what's sad..Its sad to see you come on here every morning and jump down someone's throat..



It's sad isn't it? Don't ya think?
Quoting 512. PressureDrop:


According to Einstein's special theory of relativity, a particle (that has rest mass) with subluminal velocity needs infinite energy to accelerate to the speed of light. It does not prohibit particles traveling faster than the speed of light.

The universe is expanding faster than the speed of light.

Our understanding of time and space is still in its infancy.


Correct, it doesn't prohibit it but makes it practically impossible, not to mention all the other complications that come from traveling at such speeds (hitting a pebble in space would be like hitting a nuclear bomb, for example).

Exotic matter (negative mass) and warp drives ("trick" the universe into thinking you have no mass) could also get you there, but we are no where close that.

Universal expansion is also completely different than travelling in a spaceship. It's not actually faster than the speed of light. Wikipedia has a decent entry on universal expansion, and a few google searches can give a more detailed explanation.
OK guys, I am going to go to the real weather experts. The members of Weather Underground. My daughters High school band has been invited to be in the Boston ST Patrick's day parade. they all worked and saved to go on this trip. They will be there from March 13th through the 16 th . would love to see your weather predictions for there trip. Closest forecast wins my admiration for best weather forecaster. Thanks T
575. NCstu
anyone have a nice high res image of haiyan at its peak strength. Visible would be best but any would be cool, especially if you can see the "annular" shape

(sorry I'm off topic)
the drive down hwy 1 in southern California is gorgeous even the oil rigs at night are beautiful. but parts of it have been closed due to potential landslides. the one that hit in 2005 was so sad. always fires always landslides.
577. VR46L
Quoting 575. NCstu:
anyone have a nice high res image of haiyan at its peak strength. Visible would be best but any would be cool, especially if you can see the "annular" shape

(sorry I'm off topic)






I have alot of Images on it but if you want the bucket Album address Mail me
Quoting 575. NCstu:
anyone have a nice high res image of haiyan at its peak strength. Visible would be best but any would be cool, especially if you can see the "annular" shape

(sorry I'm off topic)


Quoting 574. floridaT:
OK guys, I am going to go to the real weather experts. The members of Weather Underground. My daughters High school band has been invited to be in the Boston ST Patrick's day parade. they all worked and saved to go on this trip. They will be there from March 13th through the 16 th . would love to see your weather predictions for there trip. Closest forecast wins my admiration for best weather forecaster. Thanks T


The current Boston forecast is only good through next Week:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
646 AM EST FRI FEB 28 2014

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...

EXPECT UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. FEEL STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL DESPITE A POTENTIAL REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION AROUND WEDNESDAY. NOT EVEN GOING TO GO NEAR THE WEEKEND FORECAST.


And here is the GFS at 180 hours:



I am thinking it will still be cold for her trip and no way to know exactly if there will be another polar kink around that time dropping down.

Have her bring a heavy jacket and layers underneath; might be in the 20's at day break and up to the 50's by noon; she can wrap the big jacket around her waist by then as she works up a sweat walking.

That's my best guess...................


581. NCstu
Thanks everyone! All these pictures are bringing it back for me.
Quoting 554. ncstorm:
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2h

Sick Joke??? 00z CFSV2 has its 3 runs with deep snowcover still in ne corridor. IN FIRST WEEK OF APRIL pic.twitter.com/2bRCarDdW0


Well we've barely had a spring and summer last year...and The cold looks like it wants to stay with us with your occasional warm spells thrown in there.I remember back in April of 07 it was sleeting outside.
Euro still has a possible gale center in the gulf.
Quoting 573. Xyrus2000:


Correct, it doesn't prohibit it but makes it practically impossible, not to mention all the other complications that come from traveling at such speeds (hitting a pebble in space would be like hitting a nuclear bomb, for example).

Exotic matter (negative mass) and warp drives ("trick" the universe into thinking you have no mass) could also get you there, but we are no where close that.

Universal expansion is also completely different than travelling in a spaceship. It's not actually faster than the speed of light. Wikipedia has a decent entry on universal expansion, and a few google searches can give a more detailed explanation.


In terms of a space ship that our extremely limited knowledge of science allows us to imagine, you are likely correct.

I was trying to emphasize my belief that our current concept of how things work, including our climate and how it drives our weather, is just the beginning.

We're a long way from figuring out how to hitch a ride on a neutrino.
Quoting 575. NCstu:
anyone have a nice high res image of haiyan at its peak strength. Visible would be best but any would be cool, especially if you can see the "annular" shape

(sorry I'm off topic)
Reported.!.:)
Quoting 539. Neapolitan:
The anti-science silliness never ends for some, does it? The Farmer's Almanac long-range forecasts are drawn up by some old feller sitting at a manual typewriter, and they're based on a combination of guesswork, superstition, and wishful thinking. NOAA's, on the other hand, are based on climatology, observation, and the work of dozens of dedicated professionals working with the most powerful tools available. The former have less validity than your average coin toss; the latter verify again and again and again.

It's so sad to watch this once great nation fall ever deeper into the dank pits of anti-intellectualism, don't you think?
And they are making a decent amount of money, for what, I,m not sure.
Deep derp?
According to the GFS, looks like this outbreak will moderate rather quickly, with some nice warmth building into the southwestern US, and mostly near-normal temperatures elsewhere:

GFS loop
one would think..

Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 7:08 AM PST on February 28, 2014
Freezing Rain
55.3 °F
Freezing Rain

Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 54 °F
Wind: 7.0 mph Variable
Wind Gust: 11.0 mph
Pressure: 29.75 in (Rising)
Visibility: 5.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Pollen: 1.60 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 2700 ft
Mostly Cloudy 4100 ft
Overcast 5000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1070 ft

Is WU freaking out?
Quoting 591. PedleyCA:
Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 7:08 AM PST on February 28, 2014
Freezing Rain
55.3 °F
Freezing Rain

Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 54 °F
Wind: 7.0 mph Variable
Wind Gust: 11.0 mph
Pressure: 29.75 in (Rising)
Visibility: 5.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Pollen: 1.60 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 2700 ft
Mostly Cloudy 4100 ft
Overcast 5000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1070 ft

Is WU freaking out?

Must Be from what I'm "Reading :o)

Taco :o)
Quoting 504. Xandra:
Can Neil de Grasse Tyson Bring His Own Magic To Sagan%u2019s Cosmos? Oh Yes!

Posted by Dan Satterfield

. . .
In the first episode, Tyson covers The big bang, biological evolution,and the greenhouse effect (all long accepted, and well understood scientific discoveries). Based on their statements, I wonder how many members of the U.S. Congress from Georgia, Oklahoma, or Texas would publicly admit to them. Things have indeed changed a lot since Cosmos premiered in 1980!


. . .
I hope and highly recommend that science teachers around the world use these episodes as a way to inspire and educate!

Complete article >>


Good morning from Central OK,

I can't speak for the others, but in Oklahoma - well they may admit that it is happening eventually, but then say that it is "all God's plan" and there is nothing we can do about it. "God would never let anything bad happen to us" :D. I'm sure this was a common refrain among the populace as one old man and his family started hammering away at creating the world's largest floating animal sanctuary . . .

Speaking of which - Yea for the rain in CA!

As for here, we got a good soaking this morning - but it appears to have largely missed those that need it most.

This weekend promises to full of surprises - freezing rain, ice, followed by a dose of sleet and snow. Accumulation amounts yet to be determined. Good news though, the time we have our cookie booth scheduled looks to be chilly, but precipitation free. Who Hoo!

Have a fabulous Friday, and make the best you can of this weekend. Cheers.

Edit: Although, a year's worth of rain all at once perhaps is not what was best for portions of CA!
MesoWest Jurupa Valley CA US SGXWFO, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 5:49 AM PST on February 28, 2014
Light Rain
52 °F
Light Rain Mist
Humidity: 96%
Dew Point: 51 °F
Wind: 4 mph from the North
Wind Gust: 7.0 mph
Pressure: 29.75 in (Rising)
Visibility: 5.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Pollen: 1.60 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 2700 ft
Mostly Cloudy 4100 ft
Overcast 5000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 794 ft

This station reported .22for precip.
595. VR46L
Quoting 588. Neapolitan:
According to the GFS, looks like this outbreak will moderate rather quickly, with some nice warmth building into the southwestern US, and mostly near-nromal temperatures elsewhere:

GFS loop


Can't see your Image
Titan to unleash snow from coast to coast


Feb .28, 2014 5:41 am ET

West |

- Winter Storm Titan slams into California with heavy rain, very gusty winds and heavy mountain snow today.

- Saturday the storm moves inland and wraps up in California and Oregon.

- Widespread 2-5" rains will fall from San Francisco to San Diego with higher amounts possible in foothill locations.

- Beneficial snowfall of 1 to 2 feet, locally 3-4 feet above 8000 ft is possible in the southern Sierras and LA and Ventura county mountains.

- Flooding and mudslides are possible especially in recent burn areas across California.

- Strong winds, thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes are also possible in California from Titan on Saturday as the main upper-level low moves in from the Pacific.

- Locally heavy rain could cause flash flooding in the deserts Saturday.

- The storm spreads rain and mountain snow across the central Rockies and Southwest Friday night and Saturday.

- Gusty winds across the Southwest, as well.

- First significant rain of the winter season for Phoenix, AZ

- Temperatures will become much cooler in the Southwest by Saturday.

- In addition, as arctic air rushes in, widespread snow breaks out today for much of Montana, northern Idaho into northern Wyoming.

- Significant accumulations are likely, generally 6-12", higher amounts in the mountains.

Midwest |

- Scattered light snow today from South Dakota and Nebraska to Wisconsin and parts of Illinois.

- A few light showers southern parts of Missouri.

- Today's highs in the single digits and teens from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes as arctic air continues to dominate.

- Highs in the 40s from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley.

- The unrelenting cold will stay in place at least through mid next week.

- Winter Storm Titan moves into the arctic air mass producing a significant snow and ice threat from Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma to the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes Sunday and Monday.

Northeast |

- Much of the region will enjoy a dry Friday.

- It turns much colder from eastern New England to Virginia with highs in the 20s and 30s today.

- Today's highs only in the teens from much of Upstate New York to northern New England.

- Milder temperatures move in over the weekend before another big cold blast next week.

- Winter Storm Titan will blast the region with heavy snow and ice late Sunday into Monday.

- Significant snow accumulations are possible for New York City and Philadelphia, possibly as far south as Washington DC on Monday.
Quoting 591. PedleyCA:
Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 7:08 AM PST on February 28, 2014
Freezing Rain
55.3 °F
Freezing Rain

Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 54 °F
Wind: 7.0 mph Variable
Wind Gust: 11.0 mph
Pressure: 29.75 in (Rising)
Visibility: 5.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Pollen: 1.60 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 2700 ft
Mostly Cloudy 4100 ft
Overcast 5000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1070 ft

Is WU freaking out?


A little cold there Pedley?



Quiet for now...
Event into space in USA on Friday, 28 February, 2014 at 06:03 (06:03 AM) UTC.
Description
Arturo Seleme shared a dashcam video from Falls Church, Va which appears to show the meteor streaking by earlier this evening. A meteor described by many as very bright, and quite colorful, streaked across the sky around 7:08 p.m. this evening. Information is still streaming in, but as of 8 p.m., more than two dozen reports have been logged by the American Meteor Society.


Had to go full screen to get a good look at it in the upper left.

Quoting 597. Dakster:


A little cold there Pedley?



It's Winter...lol
If we can just match the vibration frequency/temperature of the universe {[(gravity waves)]}then we could have FTL warp drive. Perhaps the vehicle may need to be made out of condensates, like the ones that will be made on the SSI in 2016...see the coldest temperature in the universe, experiments.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embed ded&v=J9_LmSTtpkI

Quoting 600. PedleyCA:


It's Winter...lol


I know, but you usually don't see freezing rain, do you?
Nuclear Event in South Korea on Friday, 28 February, 2014 at 06:02 (06:02 AM) UTC.
Description
One of Korea's nuclear reactors shut down suddenly this Friday morning. The 950,kilowatt Hanbit 2 reactor in Yeonggwang , Jeollanam-do province, came to a halt at around 10:50 a.m. State-run plant operator Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power said it is investigating the exact cause of the shutdown, but added that the incident will not interfere with electricity production. This is the first time in seven years the reactor has shut down and the second nuclear reactor shutdown this year, following one reported late last month in Uljin , Gyeongsangbuk-do province. Korea has 23 nuclear reactors. With the shutdown today, six are now off line.
Muses Parade NOLA, Uptown last night.

St. Augustine High School Marching 100

Muses Walking Neon and other.



Lets hope(east coast) that the temps are above freezing when this gets there..
7-day Tampa bay..thurs may change,stay tuned lol..
I mean, Bose-Einstein condensates that show some quantum atoms disappearing. I think this may be FTL motion and not some phenomena that breaks the matter energy conservation laws.

Oh, it has gone from freezing to high 60's here.
Quoting 570. Naga5000:


Hardly, that story was quickly torn apart by reality. He wasn't really a co-founder of Greenpeace, he really isn't an expert on anything climate related, but lo and behold, he did write a book about it!


Kind of an Al Gore then?

Al Gore: Supporting Corn-Based Ethanol Subsidies Was A Mistake
"Now he tells us. Al Gore says his support for corn-based ethanol subsidies while serving as vice president was a mistake that had more to do with his desire to cultivate farm votes in the 2000 presidential election than with what was good for the environment."

"Gore now favors second-generation ethanol, using farm waste and switchgrass to produce the fuel."
Wildfire got in a coal mine in AU..


Environment Pollution in Australia on Friday, 28 February, 2014 at 08:38 (08:38 AM) UTC.
Description
Young, elderly and pregnant residents of a Australian town cloaked in smoke from a coal mine ablaze for three weeks were on Friday urged to leave over mounting air quality concerns. Morwell has been shrouded in haze since a nearby open cut coal mine ignited during a spate of wildfires in Victoria state earlier this month, prompting respiratory health fears. Victoria state's chief health officer Rosemary Lester issued evacuation advice Friday, encouraging anyone over 65, young children, pregnant women or anyone with heart or lung conditions to "temporarily relocate" from the southern part of the town of 14,000 people. Fire officials said the challenging, complex blaze was likely to burn for at least 10 more days, with a massive fuel and heat supply. Residents have complained of breathlessness, headaches, difficulty sleeping and coughing up phlegm or blood. "We're now into the third week and we know that continued exposure to the smoke increases the risk of bad health outcomes," Lester told reporters. "What I'm advising today is that people who are in the particular at risk groups... temporarily relocate outside the area." She stressed that it was "precautionary advice only". "The air quality has not gone up significantly, there is no significant increase in danger today," she said. "But the longer the vulnerable people spend in the fine particles from the smoke, then that's a continuing risk to them."

Victoria state Premier Denis Napthine backed Lester's evacuation notice. "As premier of the state I urge people to follow the advice of the chief medical officer," he said. Hazardous PM 2.5 particulate matter in the air around the south of Morwell reached 280 micrograms per cubic metre on Thursday, which is more than 11 times Australia's daily threshold level. The World Health Organisation's safe limit for the small airborne particles which easily penetrate the lungs and have been linked to hundreds of thousands of premature deaths is 25. Morwell's levels compare with 501 micrograms per cubic metre seen in Beijing on Wednesday, the sixth day of a "orange" smog alert -- the second-highest level -- which saw a rush on face-masks. Lester defended the decision to delay an evacuation until Friday, some three weeks after the blaze first started, saying her upgrade to the health notice reflected the fact it was likely to continue burning for some time.
..How can we sleep while our bed's are burning?
NOAA, FEMA: Be a Force of Nature
National Severe Weather Preparedness Week March 2-8


Excerpt:

Our severe weather safety message is simple: know your risk, take action, be an example.

Know Your Risk: The first step to becoming weather-ready is to understand the type of hazardous weather that can affect where you live and work, and how the weather could impact you and your family. Sign up for weather alerts and check the weather forecast regularly.

Take Action: Make sure you and your family are prepared for severe weather. Your family may not be together when a storm strikes, so plan how you will contact one another by developing your family communication plan. Make sure you put together an emergency kit and store important papers and valuables in a safe place. Visit Ready.gov/severe-weather to learn more about how to be better prepared and how you can protect your family when severe weather strikes.

Be an Example: Once you have taken action, tell family, friends, and co-workers to do the same. Share the resources and alert systems you discovered through your social media network. Share these new videos to help your friends and families to prepare.

Get Weather Ready: Before a Tornado
Get Weather Ready: During a Tornado
Get Weather Ready: After a Tornado
Wow, got to 27 this morning here (NW FL) when they only were predicting 31 or 30 as the low.

A couple weeks ago after we entered a warmer spell after the ice storm, I was saying how a late freeze could very well be on the table for later winter.

I wonder how the summer and tropical plants that they put in the stores weeks ago in early/mid February did. It's way to risky to be selling/buying them so early with multiple freezes possible through early March. This is definitely not central or south FL.

Bad move, a lot of them are probably burned now.
Wow we've already had over 1.5 inches of rain from this storm, and still more than 24 hours to go.
Quoting 602. Dakster:


I know, but you usually don't see freezing rain, do you?


That is a malfunction. It would have to be below 32F for that to occur. I saw that on one station (KCARIVER12) and I was on classic. But it did the same thing on the regular WU site. Must be a software glitch.

Sun just came out!!!!
Quoting 611. Patrap:
..How can we sleep while our bed's are burning?


Wow... A Ronald Reagan reference.

Some people go through life wondering whether they made a difference or not. The US Marines don't have that problem. (Ronald Reagan).
Quoting 615. PedleyCA:


That is a malfunction. It would have to be below 32F for that to occur. I saw that on one station (KCARIVER12) and I was on classic. But it did the same thing on the regular WU site. Must be a software glitch.

Sun just came out!!!!


Someone may be doing maintenance and set their glass of ice water next to the instrument. 94% Humidity too.

(I know I used to freeze water and take it with me when I worked out in the field).
How does Reagan come into play in a song about returning the Outback to the Aborigine Tribes?

The time has come
To say fair's fair
To pay the rent
To pay our share
The time has come
A fact's a fact
It belongs to them
Let's give it back

How can we dance when our earth is turning
How do we sleep while our beds are burning
How can we dance when our earth is turning
How do we sleep while our beds are burning
Quoting 616. Dakster:


Wow... A Ronald Reagan reference.

Some people go through life wondering whether they made a difference or not. The US Marines don't have that problem. (Ronald Reagan).


Hmm, i thought that was a Midnight Oil reference . . .
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 619. daddyjames:


Hmm, i thought that was a Midnight Oil reference . . .


Maybe Reagan was a fan, lol.
With all this cold gripping the Mid West, no surprise that records continue to be broken in N.A.

Year to date:
Hi Max: 2358
Hi Min: 1929
total = 4287

Low Max: 5003
Low Min: 3718
total = 8721

Record lows out pacing highs by over a 2:1 margin. Not seeing any signs of this pattern changing anytime soon. That's why I live in warm Florida.

Quoting 614. TimSoCal:
Wow we've already had over 1.5 inches of rain from this storm, and still more than 24 hours to go.


We are not nearly as lucky so far. Think we got .18 yesterday and .33 so far today.
625. flsky
East Pacific hurricane heading toward San Francisco???

You're welcome..

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281609
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI FEB 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A POWERFUL AND DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE CONTINUES N OF THE AREA NEAR
36.5N132.5W 969 MB THIS MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
THROUGH 30N122W TO 19N133W THEN DISSIPATING FRONT TO 16.5N140W.
OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASSES REVEALED WINDS TO 55 KT IN THE W
SEMICIRCLE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...WELL N OF THE AREA...WHILE
GALES TO 40 KT WERE OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXTENDED S
INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA TO 27N. THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS STORM HAS DRIVEN SEAS TO 25 FT THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR
NW PORTIONS...WITH SEAS TO 15 FT AND HIGHER ACROSS THE NW
PORTIONS AND ASSOCIATED NW SWELL YIELDING SEAS AT OR ABOVE 8 FT
W OF LINE FROM 30N118W TO 25N121W TO 08N130W. THIS CYCLONE WILL
MOVE SE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND DIE
ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SUN. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY THEN INTO N
PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA EARLY SAT THEN MOVE ACROSS N
PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SAT THROUGH SAT EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS SUN. GALE WINDS
OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS N
PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA LATE TONIGHT AND END BY SAT
MORNING. LARGE NW SWELL WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND PRODUCE VERY
LARGE AND POWERFUL SURF ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTLINES AND
OFFSHORE REEFS...INDUCING DANGEROUS LIFE THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS.
Doc's got a new blog up People !!!
GFS now takes Thurs low pressure system thru north florida..we need to watch this one in the days to come for any changes in track etc..it is now March,the month where storms can get strong huh...