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New Blast of Cold Air Invades Midwest U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:31 PM GMT on February 26, 2014

A frigid blast of Arctic air will bring some of the coldest late February temperatures seen in decades to the eastern 2/3 of the U.S. this week, with temperatures 15 - 30° below normal commonplace. The cold air isn't going anywhere fast, and will stick around through early next week. The cold blast is due to an extreme jet stream pattern we have seen before this winter--a sharp ridge of high pressure over California, and a large trough of low pressure over Eastern North America. This upper air pattern was described by the National Weather Service in Buffalo, New York on Tuesday as one that occurs less than once every 30 years in late February. The intense cold is already affecting the Upper Midwest this Wednesday morning. My vote for worst winter weather of the day goes to Central Minnesota at Alexandria, where a temperature of -8°F this morning combined with winds of 14 mph to make a wind chill of -28°. The winds are expected to increase to 25 - 30 mph Wednesday afternoon with higher gusts, creating blizzard conditions. In Chicago, the intense cold is expected to put the December - February average temperature for this winter below 19°, making the winter of 2013 - 2014 the 3rd coldest winter in the Windy City's history. Only the winters of 1978 - 1979 and 1903 - 1904 were colder.


Figure 1. Great Lake ice cover as seen on February 19, 2014, by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite. Ice cover on North America’s Great Lakes reached 88 percent in mid-February 2014—levels not observed since 1994. The average maximum ice extent since 1973 is just over 50 percent. It has surpassed 80 percent just five times in four decades. The lowest average ice extent occurred in 2002, when only 9.5 percent of the lakes froze. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Rain coming to California
Unlike previous versions of this extreme jet stream pattern, though, the ridge over the Western U.S. will not be very persistent. The ridge of high pressure over California, which brought numerous record high temperatures for the date on Tuesday, will get broken down by a weak low pressure system on Wednesday and Thursday. On Friday and Saturday, a more intense storm system will smash through the ridge, bringing moderate to heavy rain to much of drought-parched California. This storm will then track eastwards, potentially bringing a major snowstorm and destructive ice storm on Monday to Illinois, Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia, and portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S.


Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average at 2 meters (6.6') as diagnosed by the GFS model at 00 UTC February 26, 2014. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) created a sharp kink in the jet stream (Figure 3), which allowed cold air to spill southwards out of the Arctic over the Eastern U.S. Compensating warm air flowed northwards into the Arctic underneath ridges of high pressure over Alaska and Europe. Data/image obtained using Climate Reanalyzer™ (http://cci-reanalyzer.org), Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, Orono, Maine.


Figure 3. Winds at a height where the pressure is 250 mb show the axis of the jet stream, seen here at 00 UTC February 26, 2014. A sharp trough of low pressure was present over the Eastern U.S., and unusually strong ridges of high pressure were over the Western U.S. and the North Atlantic. Data/image obtained using Climate Reanalyzer™ (http://cci-reanalyzer.org), Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, Orono, Maine.

Wanted: professionals willing to speak about climate change to local groups
If you are a professional or graduate student with a strong background in climate science, the world needs you to reach out to local audiences at schools, retirement homes, the Chamber of Commerce, etc., and share your expertise. A new initiative by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) and the United Nations Foundation called climatevoices.org is launching a Science Speakers Network this spring, with the goal of bringing scientists and their local communities together for real dialogue on climate science that speaks to citizens’ current and future well-being and responsibility as members of a community and democracy. Materials for context-setting presentations will be offered as will coaching regarding how to begin conversations about climate change with fellow citizens. If you are interested in volunteering for this network, please go to climatevoices.org and create a profile.  Profiles will “go public” when the full web site is launched in April. Once you create a profile, you will be kept up to date on Climate Voices progress including construction of the full web site, availability of presentation materials, webinar coaching, and plans for project launch. For any questions, please contact: Cindy Schmidt (UCAR), cschmidt@ucar.edu. I have my own set of slides I use for such talks that anyone is welcome to borrow from, available at http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/2013/climatetalk.ppt.

Jeff Masters
Snowy Friday
Snowy Friday
After a major winter storm in the Twin Cities area, I spent Friday afternoon capturing a glimpse of the beauty left in the aftermath of the storm.

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 495. TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is a map of the amount of time (in %) that the United States has spent below freezing since December 1, 2013. Almost all of the lower 48 has spent at least 5/100th of that time below freezing. I've spent 1/10th of the time below 32F. Northern Minnesota has spent 95/100th of their time below 32F. Most of Florida, the extreme Gulf Coast, southeastern Texas, and the southern coasts of Nevada and California have been "spared".


I've been below freezing for 3/4th of the time according to that map. Going to stay below freezing for the foreseeable future with a few more low temps below zero possible. Looking at breaking the record low of -1F on Friday by several degrees. Also tied at 2nd for the snowiest winter on record, with more snow expected before 00z Saturday (end of meteorological winter). I'm still not tired of this winter.
Is Nino here already.?



whoo....you just excited a few on here
Quoting 495. TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is a map of the amount of time (in %) that the United States has spent below freezing since December 1, 2013. Almost all of the lower 48 has spent at least 5/100th of that time below freezing. I've spent 1/10th of the time below 32F. Northern Minnesota has spent 95/100th of their time below 32F. Only [a good portion of] Florida, the extreme Gulf Coast, southeastern Texas, southwestern California, and southern Nevada have been "spared".

Edited for beell.



30% of winter in Asheville? That's pretty dang impressive...
Quoting 492. MississippiWx:


Omg. It's the polar vortex. Run fer yer lives!

Looks like is building and eyewall already. RI?!!
Quoting 497. beell:
Sea level rise has been rough on Nevada.

;)
Quoting 504. Gearsts:
Looks like is building and eyewall already. RI?!!

The McTavish numbers are off the charts.
Quoting 495. TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is a map of the amount of time (in %) that the United States has spent below freezing since December 1, 2013. Almost all of the lower 48 has spent at least 5/100th of that time below freezing. I've spent 1/10th of the time below 32F. Northern Minnesota has spent 95/100th of their time below 32F. Only [a good portion of] Florida, the extreme Gulf Coast, southeastern Texas, southwestern California, and southern Nevada have been "spared".

Edited for beell.



Interesting. Either they took that colorbar from Ryan Maue or the other way around.
Quoting 485. hydrus:
Holy fricken moly..Cal is getting some big numbers...Is Nino here already.?


Nope, but this incoming storm is very El Nino-ish. If we can get a couple more of these(not back-to-back, plz) before the dry season, we should be OK.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03
9:00 AM JST February 27 2014
====================================

Tropical Depression Near Caroline Islands

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 9.5N 149.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 9.1N 147.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Caroline Islands
Quoting 507. Levi32:


Interesting. Either they took that colorbar from Ryan Maue or the other way around.
Levi any chance for and El nino video from you? ;)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is a map of the amount of time (in %) that the United States has spent below freezing since December 1, 2013. Almost all of the lower 48 has spent at least 5/100th of that time below freezing. I've spent 1/10th of the time below 32F. Northern Minnesota has spent 95/100th of their time below 32F. Most of Florida, the extreme Gulf Coast, southeastern Texas, and the southern coasts of Nevada and California have been "spared".


There has to be some data error in that map. I'm is SE Alabama, where the color code shows 5-10 hours below freezing. We were below freezing for 53 hours during the January 29-30 snow and ice storm alone. We have had 7 nights below freezing in February that resulted in another 21 hours at or below freezing. I haven't even looked at earlier in January and into December, but my own unscientific "chatter factor" and dead plants tells me that we spent more than 10% of the time below freezing. The amount of time spent below freezing in the Sierra Nevada mountains also doesn't look right.
For West Palm Beach...Rain tomorrow, then back to comfortable...

Quoting 510. Gearsts:
Levi any chance for and El nino video from you? ;)


Soon :)
Quoting 511. sar2401:

There has to be some data error in that map. I'm is SE Alabama, where the color code shows 5-10 hours below freezing. We were below freezing for 53 hours during the January 29-30 snow and ice storm alone. We have had 7 nights below freezing in February that resulted in another 21 hours at or below freezing. I haven't even looked at earlier in January and into December, but my own unscientific "chatter factor" and dead plants tells me that we spent more than 10% of the time below freezing. The amount of time spent below freezing in the Sierra Nevada mountains also doesn't look right.


We had more than 5 to 10 hours below freezing during a single cold outbreak in Tallahassee. We had a high of 34 and it was only above freezing for 3 hours, we spent over 24 hours below freezing during that 2 day period.
Quoting 417. Patrap:
How do we get off Oil?

Well, let's see. I don't drive any more, I sold my car. My heat is from oil, but I have an efficiency in a remodeled home, so I don't use that much. The bus I ride uses diesel, but I am sharing the ride. The train I ride uses electricity generated by coal and nuclear power. The groceries I buy and carry home by transit in a backpack and duffle bag are delivered there by diesel-powered trucks. I do travel by air twice a year to visit my elderly parents.

So even someone with a small carbon footprint like me still needs oil.

And that will not change anytime soon that I can see.

Most Americans are energy hogs. And a lot of them bewail global warming as they have a big suburban home and have two vehicles and drive to work and drive all over suburbia on errands and take vacations that require flight.

So they are not serious if they truly believe in AGW. Actions speak a lot louder than words.

The irony is, I am a skeptic and I have a very small carbon footprint, mainly because I believe in conservation - those that can, should.
517. beell
sar, the map is calculated in percent of time below freezing based on hourly metar observations.

Somewhere around 2,088 hrs total. You're up to about 3.5% based on what you have looked at.
Quoting 449. Grothar:
This map was compiled by NOAA designer John Nelson of 60 years of tornado activity in the US.

Wow significant drop off when you get West of Texas and points north. May explain how huge the Gulf of Mexico plays apart in tornadoes.
Quoting 511. sar2401:

There has to be some data error in that map. I'm is SE Alabama, where the color code shows 5-10 hours below freezing. We were below freezing for 53 hours during the January 29-30 snow and ice storm alone. We have had 7 nights below freezing in February that resulted in another 21 hours at or below freezing. I haven't even looked at earlier in January and into December, but my own unscientific "chatter factor" and dead plants tells me that we spent more than 10% of the time below freezing. The amount of time spent below freezing in the Sierra Nevada mountains also doesn't look right.

Look carefully--the map isn't showing the number of hours below-freezing, it's showing the percentage of time from December 1, 2013 to 8am this morning below-freezing. So...

24 hours in a day * 31 days in December = 744 hours
24 hours in a day * 31 days in January = 744 hours
24 hours in a day * 25 full days in February = 600 hours
And 9 hours (midnight to 8am) today

Total - 2,097 hours

Adding up the number of hours you've estimated your location has spent below freezing, that's 74/2097 which equals...0.035% of time below freezing (3.5/100th). It looks like you may have spent a few more hours than you think below freezing.
Quoting JohnLonergan:
EDITORIAL in NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE

I emboldened the last two paragraphs which are the most important things to take from the editorial.

Scientist communicators

The slowdown in Earth's surface temperature increase has made headlines worldwide %u2014 but mainly to dismiss climate science. My bold



I think the problem is worse than that portrayed in the article. The response of many scientists was first to deny that a {pause, slowdown, flattening out, choose your poison} even happened. I've seen it here when Levi posted about the temperature flat lining and was immediately attacked because he didn't include ocean heat. That's not what he posted about, it was air temperature. That has been used in graphs for a long time to depict the warming of the globe. I'm absolutely certain that's what the public thinks about when it comes to global warming, not total heat. Same thing with the cold winter. People were falling all over themselves to prove it really wasn't cold. What climate scientist need to communicate is that a decrease in the rate of increase of global air temperature doesn't prove or disprove global warming. A cold winter doesn't prove or disprove global warming. It's the trend that matters. Climate predictions are never going to get every wiggle right when it comes to things like global air temperactures. If the pause continues long enough, we then have a different trend line. If the next 10 or so winters are this cold, something else is going on with climate other than what was predicted. None of the models are infallible but they are the best science we have now. Stop saying what happened didn't happen and concentrate on the point that the general trends are still intact.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Look carefully--the map isn't showing the number of hours below-freezing, it's showing the percentage of time from December 1, 2013 to 8am this morning below-freezing. So...

24 hours in a day * 31 days in December = 744 hours
24 hours in a day * 31 days in January = 744 hours
24 hours in a day * 25 full days in February = 600 hours
And 9 hours (midnight to 8am) today

Total - 2,097 hours

Adding up the number of hours you've estimated your location has spent below freezing, that's 72/2097 which equals...0.034% of time below freezing (3.4/100th). It looks like you may have spent a few more hours than you think below freezing.

Right after I hit "Post Comment" I thought, "Dang, it's not total hours". :-) Yep, I got that wrong. As I said, I didn't look at my records going all the way back to December. I'll add them up and calculate the percentage. I still think we were above 10% but I understand the limitations of a shaded chart too. Thanks for the correction.

EDIT: I ran my weather station numbers through Excel and came out with 13% of the hours below freezing. Higher than 10% but close enough for a shaded map. I also had Excel parse the number of hours at or above 70. That came out to 9%. Compared to everyone up north, I really have nothing to complain about.
Quoting 465. help4u:
Enjoy the rest of the day after all god made it for you.For god so loved the world he gave his only son that who so ever believes in him will not perish but have eternal life!Good news!

You need to capitalize God.
Quoting beell:
sar, the map is calculated in percent of time below freezing based on hourly metar observations.

Somewhere around 2,088 hrs total. You're up to about 3.5% based on what you have looked at.

Thanks, Beell, I think you and TA must have posted at the same time.
img src="http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif"


Uhhhh... That's a tornadic symbol
like 10 minutes from my family
Quoting 508. TimSoCal:


Nope, but this incoming storm is very El Nino-ish. If we can get a couple more of these(not back-to-back, plz) before the dry season, we should be OK.
I was kiddin about the Nino thing. I know it is far from being here, but half a foot forecast in some areas of California is a great thing.

Sorry
Kept posting wrong image
Quoting 497. beell:
Sea level rise has been rough on Nevada.
Yep. I heard tarpon are hitting south of Las Vegas.
529. beell
Quoting 518. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Wow significant drop off when you get West of Texas and points north. May explain how huge the Gulf of Mexico plays apart in tornadoes.


Throw in the mid-level troughs and attendant vorticity which stretch out (the bottom drops out) and increase the "spin" (and ascent) as they crest the Rockies. End result is a steady supply of lee surface lows or surface troughs that play a critical role in tornadogenesis.
Quoting 463. TroutMadness:


True, but racing fueled a lot of the development of the "infernal" :) combustion engine, lots of money wuz/is spent on refinement, way more i would think than electrical car systems
and Zug Island was once considered the "dirtiest square mile on the planet"


Good points too...but think about it...the physics and chemistry of the internal combustion engine and the variability of each in connection with...are what drove and allowed those improvements. For example..you can increase hp with very small changes..that changes the physics of the engine. For example, you can increase the hp of an engine by simply increasing the size of a bore....

Electric batteries and their charging systems and not quite as susceptible to such tweaking...otherwise, there would be some good ole' country boys who would have been able to UNDERSTAND and make those changes...however physics and chemistry won't let them.

Look...all of us on this blog want a cleaner planet. What we essentially disagree as to the how and why. My assertion is there is no clean solution outside of nuclear fusion because physics and chemistry won't allow it.

Bert

Bert
Quoting 516. AGWcreationists:
Well, let's see. I don't drive any more, I sold my car. My heat is from oil, but I have an efficiency in a remodeled home, so I don't use that much. The bus I ride uses diesel, but I am sharing the ride. The train I ride uses electricity generated by coal and nuclear power. The groceries I buy and carry home by transit in a backpack and duffle bag are delivered there by diesel-powered trucks. I do travel by air twice a year to visit my elderly parents.

So even someone with a small carbon footprint like me still needs oil.

And that will not change anytime soon that I can see.

Most Americans are energy hogs. And a lot of them bewail global warming as they have a big suburban home and have two vehicles and drive to work and drive all over suburbia on errands and take vacations that require flight.

So they are not serious if they truly believe in AGW. Actions speak a lot louder than words.

The irony is, I am a skeptic and I have a very small carbon footprint, mainly because I believe in conservation - those that can, should.

Good for you but I seriously doubt if 10% of the people over on Rood's blog try as hard as you do
but they sure can whine about it.
Quoting 529. beell:


Throw in the mid-level troughs and attendant vorticity which stretch out (the bottom drops out) and increase the "spin" (and ascent) as they crest the Rockies. End result is a steady supply of lee surface lows or surface troughs that play a critical role in tornadogenesis.

beell, I don't think I've ever asked before--are you a degreed meteorologist?
534. beell
Quoting 533. TropicalAnalystwx13:

beell, I don't think I've ever asked before--are you a degreed meteorologist?


No. I got kicked out for being disagreeable.
Quoting 531. tramp96:

Good for you but I seriously doubt if 10% of the people over on Rood's blog try as hard as you do
but they sure can whine about it.


Yay let's generalize and jump to conclusions about people.

It's like you just enjoy hearing yourselves complain.


Here comes Storm #1 on stage left.
Quoting 535. Naga5000:


Yay let's generalize and jump to conclusions about people.

It's like you just enjoy hearing yourselves complain.

Stay here awhile it sounds like they use common sense here and it's more relaxed. I can tell from this morning that you could use some of that,your BP was up.


Tornado symbol in SF
Is Jolly Good stuff !






Quoting 640. JohnLonergan:



Climate Change: Evidence & Causes

Climate change is one of the defining issues of our time. It is now more certain than ever, based on many lines of evidence, that humans are changing Earth's climate. The atmosphere and oceans have warmed, accompanied by sea-level rise, a strong decline in Arctic sea ice, and other climate-related changes.

Greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) absorb heat (infrared radiation) emitted from Earth's surface. Increases in the atmospheric concentrations of these gases cause Earth to warm by trapping more of this heat. Human activities - especially the burning of fossil fuels since the start of the Industrial Revolution - have increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations by about 40%, with more than half the increase occurring since 1970. Since 1900, the global average surface temperature has increased by about 0.8 C (1.4 F). This has been accompanied by warming of the ocean, a rise in sea level, a strong decline in Arctic sea ice, and many other associated climate effects. Much of this warming has occurred in the last four decades. Detailed analyses have shown that the warming during this period is mainly a result of the increased concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. Continued emissions of these gases will cause further climate change, including substantial increases in global average surface temperature and important changes in regional climate. The magnitude and timing of these changes will depend on many factors, and slowdowns and accelerations in warming lasting a decade or more will continue to occur. However, long-term climate change over many decades will depend mainly on the total amount of CO2 and other greenhouse gases emitted as a result of human activities.

Project background

The Royal Society and the US National Academy of Sciences, with their similar missions to promote the use of science to benefit society and to inform critical policy debates, offer this new publication as a key reference document for decision makers, policy makers, educators, and other individuals seeking authoritative answers about the current state of climate change science. The publication makes clear what is well established, where consensus is growing, and where there is still uncertainty. It is written and reviewed by a UK-US team of leading climate scientists. It echoes and builds upon the long history of climate-related work from both national science academies, as well as the newest climate change assessment from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

This work was kindly supported by the Raymond and Beverly Sackler US-UK Scientific Forum.

Link to the report:
Climate Change Evidence & Causes(PDF)
Quoting 536. PedleyCA:


Here comes Storm #1 on stage left.


Doesn't look like you are going to get wet with that one.
Quoting 537. tramp96:

Stay here awhile it sounds like they use common sense here and it's more relaxed. I can tell from this morning that you could use some of that,your BP was up.


No thanks. I was here earlier, contributing to the conversation, not throwing insults and making generalizations about groups of people I know nothing about.

Have fun storming the castle!
Quoting 540. Dakster:


Doesn't look like you are going to get wet with that one.


Looks like maybe just the toes.....lol
Quoting 541. Naga5000:


No thanks. I was here earlier, contributing to the conversation, not throwing insults and making generalizations about groups of people I know nothing about.

Have fun storming the castle!

As I have said in the past my conclusions are based on experience.
Where did all that water go?

Link

Quoting 538. nwobilderburg:


Tornado symbol in SF


Your Storm is way meaner than mine.....
Quoting 545. PedleyCA:


Your Storm is way meaner than mine.....


Not mine... I'm central coast... Only light to moderate rain here
Half inch or less if I could guess
Quoting 544. Dakster:
Where did all that water go?

Link



Agriculture is 80% of the usage, bet it went there.
Quoting 546. nwobilderburg:


Not mine... I'm central coast... Only light to moderate rain here
Half inch or less if I could guess


Have yet to see anything here. Friday should be good though.
Quoting beell:


No. I got kicked out for being disagreeable.

Arf! You too,huh?
Pedley - Is this the schoolnight slow down, now?

Nearby Airports its getting cold in the northeast to

New Haven | Clear | 19 °F
Chester | Clear | 18 °F
Meriden | Clear | 16 °F
Nearby Weather Stations

Bishops Orchards-Meadow Ridge | 17.4 °F
Orcutt | 14.2 °F
Bishops Orchards-LHR | 16.7 °F
Quoting 550. Dakster:
Pedley - Is this the schoolnight slow down, now?


Watching the Krewe of Nyx parade.
Quoting 553. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Yikes...
I'm getting really tired of the cold... I used to be winter person back in Central NC annoyed with the warmth, but these mountains are teaching me a lesson that I should be better off a warm weather person :\

On additional note, NC State/UNC games are always fun to watch. One GREAT thing about living in NC is those Tobaaco Road Rivalry games (Duke, UNC, NC State) :)
Going to need to move the docks.
Quoting 557. Dakster:
Going to need to move the docks.
naw just wait till the rains come
Wow, LA/Oxnard NWS serious about this weekend. El Nino starts early.

Link
UNC Vs NC State game..that was the craziest last 2 minutes of regulation

State is taking names right now in overtime..
snow storm for the northeast here
Quoting 560. ncstorm:
UNC Vs NC State game..that was the craziest last 2 minutes of regulation

State is taking names right now in overtime..
This might be the best UNC/NC State game I've ever seen in last few years...

Quoting 556. Bluestorm5:
I'm getting really tired of the cold... I used to be winter person back in Central NC annoyed with the warmth, but these mountains are teaching me a lesson that I should be better off a warm weather person :\

On additional note, NC State/UNC games are always fun to watch. One GREAT thing about living in NC is those Tobaaco Road Rivalry games (Duke, UNC, NC State) :)
I used to contemplate moving to Jamaica a few years back. And tbh, I still think I'm more suited/adaptive to a tropical climate.
Quoting 559. Chucktown:
Wow, LA/Oxnard NWS serious about this weekend. El Nino starts early.

Link



Hey, What's up Chuck?
Here is the San Diego Offices take on it. Link
We are in the 1-00-1.50 range - that circle NW of Riverside.
San Francisco, CA (KMUX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

I can't believe how cold it has been in the north this winter! Lansing, MI, for example is supposed to reach -14F tomorrow night. Most winters in recent history the city does not get within several degrees of that in an entire winter. This must be close to a record cold winter as far as averages go for many areas. I admit, I am a bit jealous as I am a winter weather/sports enthusiast. The weather should be quite pleasant here for the next several days, as a front is now moving through.

Regarding the Great Lakes, why is Lake Michigan and Lake Huron almost entirely ice free (as a percentage of the total lake surface)? The other lakes are almost entirely covered. I could see the aforementioned two being a bit less covered than the others due to a combination of depth and geographic location, but why the stark difference? I would think Lake Michigan would be at least as ice covered as Lake Ontario.
Quoting 563. KoritheMan:

I used to contemplate moving to Jamaica a few years back. And tbh, I still think I'm more suited/adaptive to a tropical climate.
Bahamas'll give you the best of both worlds, though I don't know if we would be laid-back enough 4 u... also JA is more populated, which may or may not be to your liking....
It's raining on the Streets of San Francisco!!!

Quoting 561. hurricanes2018:
snow storm for the northeast here


The model is wrong on snow in nyc and philladelphia...ice in those areas snow confined to ny state/nw nj and ct/mass.
I am watching for a huge winter storm March 6 - 8 right now so will need to watch it closely.


Nice View Keeper, Storm is get closer....
Quoting 520. sar2401:

I think the problem is worse than that portrayed in the article. The response of many scientists was first to deny that a {pause, slowdown, flattening out, choose your poison} even happened. I've seen it here when Levi posted about the temperature flat lining and was immediately attacked because he didn't include ocean heat. That's not what he posted about, it was air temperature. That has been used in graphs for a long time to depict the warming of the globe. I'm absolutely certain that's what the public thinks about when it comes to global warming, not total heat. Same thing with the cold winter. People were falling all over themselves to prove it really wasn't cold. What climate scientist need to communicate is that a decrease in the rate of increase of global air temperature doesn't prove or disprove global warming. A cold winter doesn't prove or disprove global warming. It's the trend that matters. Climate predictions are never going to get every wiggle right when it comes to things like global air temperactures. If the pause continues long enough, we then have a different trend line. If the next 10 or so winters are this cold, something else is going on with climate other than what was predicted. None of the models are infallible but they are the best science we have now. Stop saying what happened didn't happen and concentrate on the point that the general trends are still intact.
So, we should discuss how the planet is heating up without actually discussing all the ways the planet is heating up, because to do otherwise might confuse the public? Gee, I have to tell you that the 'logic' escapes me. Care to elucidate?

You wrote, "if the next 10 or so winters are this cold, something else is going on with the climate other than what was predicted." As a look at any global temperature map will show, this winter has been anything but cold. In fact, with the exception of the eastern US and parts of. Siberia, February has followed in January'sfootsteps by being normal to above normal. So for your statement to have any chance at validity, you should rephrase it thusly: "if next winter and the ten or so that follow it somehow stop the long -term trend of increasing global temperatures, something else might be happening."

Quoting 568. BahaHurican:
Bahamas'll give you the best of both worlds, though I don't know if we would be laid-back enough 4 u... also JA is more populated, which may or may not be to your liking....
The Bahamas are a bit milder than Jamaica during the winter, but hey, you guys are a notorious hurricane magnet, which is right up my alley.

Can we be neighbors if I move? :]
Quoting 563. KoritheMan:

I used to contemplate moving to Jamaica a few years back. And tbh, I still think I'm more suited/adaptive to a tropical climate.


Wow, really? The year round heat might be a bit much, though I think one could get used to just about any climate. I remember checking the weather in the summer and seeing the forecast for Kingston like this: 86/97, 85/96, 86/96... The lows are particularly notable for a non-desert region, a result of the steaming bath water the island is surrounded by.

Quoting 576. HurrMichaelOrl:


Wow, really? The year round heat might be a bit much, though I think one could get used to just about any climate. I remember checking the weather in the summer and seeing the forecast for Kingston like this: 86/97, 85/96, 86/96... The lows are particularly notable for a non-desert region, a result of the steaming bath water the island is surrounded by.
Wouldn't the daily seabreeze/thunderstorm largely mitigate the heat, though? Especially along coastal areas.
Quoting 568. BahaHurican:
Bahamas'll give you the best of both worlds, though I don't know if we would be laid-back enough 4 u... also JA is more populated, which may or may not be to your liking....


We have better beaches. Enough said.
Wednesday 26 February 2014
Efforts to depoliticise climate change are welcome
There are those who claim climate change can somehow be seen as a political position


To the rational majority, climate change is not an article of faith but an unwelcome statement of fact. Not because of the anecdotal evidence of unprecedented “weather events” – Australian heatwaves, Philippines typhoons, European flooding – battering the globe with steadily increasing regularity. Rather, because scientific study after scientific study has proved beyond all reasonable doubt that not only is the Earth’s temperature rising, but those alterations are almost certainly the result of human activities. Indeed, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded last year that it is now as sure that we are behind global warming as it is that cigarettes cause cancer.
Yet still there are those who claim climate change can somehow be seen as a political position, instead of the demonstrably measurable reality that it is. And even among policymakers who do not quibble with the evidence, there is a reluctance to face up to the expensive, unpopular choices that must be made to solve the problem. It is against such a backdrop that two of the world’s most august scientific institutions – the US National Academy of Sciences and the Royal Society in London – today set out their summation of the proof that climate change exists and that human activities are the cause. The motivation could not be more explicit. “We have enough evidence to warrant action being taken,” Sir Paul Nurse, the President of the Royal Society, says. “It is now time for the public debate to move forward.”

How right he is. Yes, there are still any number of questions as to the scale and implications of a rising global temperature. But what is irrefutable is that atmospheric carbon dioxide in now at levels not seen for 800,000 years and, regardless of the recent pause, temperatures have been on the up since the mid-19th century. The politicisation of climate change is one of the more dangerous developments of recent years, with the potential to put a real check on our ability to tackle perhaps the trickiest problem that the human race has ever faced. It can only be hoped that the National Academy and the Royal Society can help tip the balance back towards science.
Quoting 577. KoritheMan:

Wouldn't the daily seabreeze/thunderstorm largely mitigate the heat, though? Especially along coastal areas.


I must say, the daily thunderstorm over Nassau in the summer can be particularly INTENSE, and also photogenic.

One thing I noticed about Nassau-born thunderstorms is that 50-75% of them end up only producing 1-3 lightning strikes before they wash/rain themselves out.

Over Andros (the big island to the west of Nassau), the storms are MUCH MUCH larger and more intense. This is because of a larger and more effective sea breeze and its basically like the east-coast seabreeze in southeast Florida. One day I would love to be under one of those thunderstorms to see how hard it is raining and how much lightning is occurring, because at night, the lightning over there are non-stop.
From Quark Soup:

The Pause That Ain't


Tamino has been making a strong case that the trend of surface temperatures isn't any different than it has been since 1975, except for some ordinary fluctuations about the trend. He's giving away his graphs for free, and they're worth reproducing.

Here, in 5 short steps, is his proof that there is no pause.

First, take the Cowtan & Way data for surface temperatures, which is HadCRUT4 infilled by kriging. (This has a nice introduction to kriging, if you 're looking for one.)

Plot the annual value from 1975 to 2000:



Determine the linear trend:




and the uncertainty of that trend:




In this chart, the first dashed line on either side of the trendline (which is the solid line) is the 1-standard deviation value, and the second dashed line outside it is the 2-standard deviation value.

Project these trend lines to the present:





Add in the annual Cowtan & Way anomalies up to 2013:





What you see is that the present (last) anomaly is not even one standard deviation below the 1975-2000 trend. No different than it's often before.

It's hard to make it more clear than this. By calculating the trend only "since 1998" or only "for the last 17 years" or the like, with nonkriged data, you're only presenting a piece of the picture -- a highly selected piece -- a picture where the early data is above the long-term trendline, and the later data is below the long-term trendline. (And not even below it by that much.) It's the SkS escalator graph but looking just at the last step.

By the way, the C&W trend since 1975 is 0.166 ± 0.017 °C/decade (1-sigma, OLS uncertainty, R2 = 0.83). Tamino's value for sigma includes autocorrelation, which is why it's larger than the one here.

As tamino wrote, "If that’s what you call a pause,' then it’s not a very impressive one."

Just some hurricane hitting some place
There's something a happening here,
what it is, is perfectly clear.


Quoting 583. nwobilderburg:

Just some hurricane hitting some place


What am I supposed to feel?
So glad to see California is getting some substantial rain. We received almost an inch at my location in Central Florida. Keep it coming all around.
Quoting JohnLonergan:
From Quark Soup:

The Pause That Ain't


Tamino has been making a strong case that the trend of surface temperatures isn't any different than it has been since 1975, except for some ordinary fluctuations about the trend. He's giving away his graphs for free, and they're worth reproducing.

Here, in 5 short steps, is his proof that there is no pause.

First, take the Cowtan & Way data for surface temperatures, which is HadCRUT4 infilled by kriging. (This has a nice introduction to kriging, if you 're looking for one.)

Plot the annual value from 1975 to 2000:



Determine the linear trend:




and the uncertainty of that trend:




In this chart, the first dashed line on either side of the trendline (which is the solid line) is the 1-standard deviation value, and the second dashed line outside it is the 2-standard deviation value.

Project these trend lines to the present:





Add in the annual Cowtan & Way anomalies up to 2013:





What you see is that the present (last) anomaly is not even one standard deviation below the 1975-2000 trend. No different than it's often before.

It's hard to make it more clear than this. By calculating the trend only "since 1998" or only "for the last 17 years" or the like, with nonkriged data, you're only presenting a piece of the picture -- a highly selected piece -- a picture where the early data is above the long-term trendline, and the later data is below the long-term trendline. (And not even below it by that much.) It's the SkS escalator graph but looking just at the last step.

By the way, the C&W trend since 1975 is 0.166 ± 0.017 °C/decade (1-sigma, OLS uncertainty, R2 = 0.83). Tamino's value for sigma includes autocorrelation, which is why it's larger than the one here.

As tamino wrote, "If that’s what you call a pause,' then it’s not a very impressive one."

Very impressive. Seriously. I've seen that chart progression before and it does a good job of explaining the "pause". I also minored in stat. Now, please come up with cogent explanation for someone who as no clue what kriging is and probably doesn't understand why one or two standard deviations are important. That's the challenge for science today.
Rain Finally Returns, Californians Rejoice?

February 26, 2014
The relief hasn't been enough to squash the drought, however. As of Wednesday's measurements, California's snow water equivalent is just 22 percent of normal for this time of year, according to the California Department of Water Resources. Central portions of the Sierra are reporting 29 percent of normal, the highest snow water equivalent of any region in the mountain range.

Good news is on the way as a more active pattern of storm systems will begin rushing into California this week and is expected continue through the weekend. Rain will fall on most of the state, while much-needed snow will reach the higher elevations.

While the precipitation will be welcomed by a parched state that desperately needs it to keep the water supply flowing through the summer months, serious concerns remain about a lingering drought that will require far more rain to kill. If the rain doesn't come in the next few weeks, it would have to fall in months that are traditionally dry.
589. OCF
Someone upthread expressed wonderment at the notion that there were tornadoes on the West Coast. Well, admittedly, they're not that big of a hazard. But still: I spend the first 18 years of my life in Oklahoma and yet somehow the closest any tornado has ever come to a house I lived in happened in Southern California. Happened maybe 15 or 20 years ago, in January or February. The track of the tornado was less than half a mile from my house. Someone's backyard sheet metal shed was ripped up and deposited across utility wires and trees a block or two away. A fast-food place's standing sign had its flat surfaces shredded. A grocery store had a 10 foot or so hole punched in its flat roof. (They stayed open during repairs, just roping off the bad aisles.) The worst damage was a block or two further on, to the roof of a school library. All told, I suppose that sounds like EF0; maybe the school library was EF1. There was a power failure over several square miles.

Tonight: not raining where I am yet. Still waiting for it to start.
Quoting Thrawst:


I must say, the daily thunderstorm over Nassau in the summer can be particularly INTENSE, and also photogenic.

One thing I noticed about Nassau-born thunderstorms is that 50-75% of them end up only producing 1-3 lightning strikes before they wash/rain themselves out.

Over Andros (the big island to the west of Nassau), the storms are MUCH MUCH larger and more intense. This is because of a larger and more effective sea breeze and its basically like the east-coast seabreeze in southeast Florida. One day I would love to be under one of those thunderstorms to see how hard it is raining and how much lightning is occurring, because at night, the lightning over there are non-stop.

I was under one of those off Andros. A 67 foot mast make a great lightning rod. I was struck three times in 15 minutes. I saw the storm coming, grabbed my 4 sets of jumper cable, hooked them to the stays, and threw them overboard. All hands proceeded to the "salon", such as it was, and cowered until the cell passed. It took me about a half-hour until I could hear again due to the continuous thunder. You really don't want to be under one of those.
Good Night Peeps - Stay Dry - Stay Warm - Heater working tonight has been off for weeks. Just in case.
93W~ 9.3N 148.9E 20kts Click pic to watch the loop of this swirl forming.
GFS forecast wind swath

Quoting KoritheMan:

I used to contemplate moving to Jamaica a few years back. And tbh, I still think I'm more suited/adaptive to a tropical climate.

Jamaica is a pretty nice place generally. Cost of living is high but the beaches are good, diving is excellent, and you can always go up into the mountains for a break. Just avoid Kingston. I've been there twice. The first time was 40 years ago. It was starting to slide but not bad. I was there 15 years ago and got caught n a crossfire between what I assume were Jamaican special forces and some drug kingpins right in the center of downtown Kingston. I doubt it has gotten better.
Quoting PedleyCA:
Good Night Peeps - Stay Dry - Stay Warm - Heater working tonight has been off for weeks. Just in case.

GN, Pedley. Hope you get some rain.
Link
without balance we fall...but its ok ponyo will fix it
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Keep, did you check out the web site those pictures came from? Some pretty strange stuff there. Luckily, you're in Canada, so no need to worry about being interned in a FEMA camp. :-)
Quoting WaterWitch11:
Link
without balance we fall...but its ok ponyo will fix it

Did you ever notice that Japanese animators make everyone look Japanese, even when they're not supposed to be?
Choo!! Choo!! All aboard the Pacific wave train to California!

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Choo!! Choo!! All aboard the Pacific wave train to California!


Give it about two weeks and all the news from California will be mudslides and flooding. Never fails.
Got .35" in Melbourne so far..

Today is Tornado and Thunderstorm Awareness Day

At midnight Tornado Drill Day begins for the entire state of FL..

General Information: At approximately 1010am EST on Thursday, February 27, all National Weather Service Forecast Offices serving Florida will transmit a practice Tornado Warning. The warning will be transmit
ted via NOAA Weather Radio Drill in place of the normal Routine Weekly Test (RWT). The Routine Weekly Test normally conducted each Wednesday will NOT take place on February 26. Local Radio and TV stations and Emergency Management offices may also choose to
broadcast this warning drill in some areas. The practice Tornado Warning will be cancelled at 1030
am EST. The drill this year was moved from Wednesday to Thursday, due to a conflict with the Florida Public Schools. If severe weather threatens Florida on Thursday, the test will be postponed to Friday, Feburary 28.

Please note that while the Tornado Warning Drill will trigger an audible alarm on some brands of
NOAA Weather Radio, other radios (i.e. Midland WR-
100) will only display a yellow advisory light on
the console.
The NWS Melbourne Tornado Warning Drill will be issued for the following east central Florida counties:
Brevard, Indian River, Lake, Martin, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, St. Lucie, Seminole and Volusia.

Additionally, all other Florida counties will receive
practice Tornado Warning Drills from their local
NWS offices
Low off Greenland weakened a little..from 958 to 963mb.

17.2 currently:

Oceansat fail..

Quoting Astrometeor:
17.2 currently:


Still 38 and overcast with high clouds down here. Winds are still 5-10 so we're not going to reach the upper 20's if this continues.
Quoting 598. sar2401:

Keep, did you check out the web site those pictures came from? Some pretty strange stuff there. Luckily, you're in Canada, so no need to worry about being interned in a FEMA camp. :-)


just more bat boy news



609. flsky
Looks like a picket fence after storm surge.
Quoting 569. BahaHurican:
It's raining on the Streets of San Francisco!!!



Hey, don't bogart that weather, pass some our way. :)
Good Gosh..that is one huge storm by Florida








Nearby Airports very cold here

New Haven | Clear | 12 °F
Chester | Clear | 14 °F
Meriden | Clear | 9 °F

Bishops Orchards-Meadow Ridge | 11.1 °F
Orcutt | 10.6 °F
Bishops Orchards-LHR | 11.0 °F
LOL hey please help speak up about climate change to the seniors. Desperation is pathetic
Hi ncstorm, yes the GFS and Euro have it as well. Looks like we really need to follow these trends on the nodels.

Good Morning!......
this massive blob Mar-7 goes into the big bend of florida on the ooz GFS..wow...
gee.................
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE AT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS OVER THE MARINE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE LATEST
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

SEVERAL HOURS OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
ACROSS LEVY COUNTY. SEE THE LATEST NON-PRECIPITATION STATEMENT FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THE FREEZE WATCH.
i KNOW SAR has the heat on tonight..wow.....
Quoting 620. LargoFl:
i KNOW SAR has the heat on tonight..wow.....


Got it on here, 37 right now. That would be 23 degrees below the Florida 60 degree standard for freezing.
Quoting 618. LargoFl:
gee.................


Last night was a disappointment. I've been waiting all week for the rain and all I got was .02
Just barely enough to wet the ground.

Everytime it rains its up around Central Fl or further North. South Florida continues with its dry season.
Good morning everyone. Bad times for seabirds. At first the storms in the Atlantic this winter (see below) and later this year maybe a strong El Nino in the Pacific which means lack of food as well, as far as I know.

France: storms leave thousands of dead seabirds on beaches
EuroNews Video, 27/02 07:14 CET
More than 21,000 dead birds have been found on France’s Atlantic beaches since the beginning of the year.
Huge storms meant they couldn’t catch fish that dive deeper to escape the storms.
After not eating for at least fifteen days, they died of malnutrition.
Experts say the death toll is unprecedented for at least a century.


Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 29 degrees and I'm going to have to go out early and warm up/defrost the suv before I head off to teach my little ones today. We have a high of 56 expected, so we'll probably be in the high 40's. But tomorrow the high is ten degrees warmer, 66 and Saturday another ten degrees higher, mid-seventies. Louisianans are ready for spring to get here.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: steak, eggs and hash browns, Belgian waffles with strawberries or powdered sugar, croissants, creamy oatmeal with blueberries, cinnamon streusel coffee cake, omelets with cheese, mushrooms, peppers and diced ham or bacon, Oversize Breakfast Biscuits with sausage patties and strawberry jelly on the side, bagels with cream cheese and jelly, thick slices of fried honey ham, cheesy grits and shrimp, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
Winter Storm Titan!!!

Nearby Airports cold morning here

New Haven | Clear | 7 °F
Chester | Partly Cloudy | 10 °F
Meriden | Clear | 4 °F
Bishops Orchards-Meadow Ridge | 3.9 °F
Orcutt | 4.8 °F
Bishops Orchards-LHR | 4.7 °F
Gradual clearning followed by another week of dry weather. I love the nice weather but we're setting our self up for a bad fire season for our area if this dry weather continues.
1.06" of rain for the month of February at my location in Fort Myers.




Quoting 626. hurricanes2018:

Nearby Airports cold morning here

New Haven | Clear | 7 °F
Chester | Partly Cloudy | 10 °F
Meriden | Clear | 4 °F
Bishops Orchards-Meadow Ridge | 3.9 °F
Orcutt | 4.8 °F
Bishops Orchards-LHR | 4.7 °F


Just don't know how you guys/gals do it. I guess you just need to wear the proper clothes when you go outdoors.
I've gotten to the point whenever the temperature drops below 60 degrees I think its chilly outside (reaching for a sweater or light jacket).

Quoting 628. Sfloridacat5:


Just don't know how you guys/gals do it. I guess you just need to wear the proper clothes when you go outdoors.
I've gotten to the point whenever the temperature drops below 60 degrees I think its chilly outside (reaching for a sweater or light jacket).



Apparently your body regulator needs things warm. I am the opposite. I can't take it when the temps break about 75 - I flee to an area that has A/C.

I get my neighbors riled up when it's in the 40's and 50's outside (You know both days this year) and I am walking around my yard with shorts and a t-shirt on, while they look like Nanook of the North. They ask aren't you cold and I ask aren't you ridiculous looking in that parka. (or if I want to be nice, aren't you hot?)

dry season?? not in WPB!
Quoting 622. Sfloridacat5:


Last night was a disappointment. I've been waiting all week for the rain and all I got was .02
Just barely enough to wet the ground.

Everytime it rains its up around Central Fl or further North. South Florida continues with its dry season.
the weather radio in my house
Quoting 628. Sfloridacat5:


Just don't know how you guys/gals do it. I guess you just need to wear the proper clothes when you go outdoors.
I've gotten to the point whenever the temperature drops below 60 degrees I think its chilly outside (reaching for a sweater or light jacket).



Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 8:00 AM EST Thursday 27 February 2014
Condition:Partly Cloudy
Pressure:29.5 inches
Tendency:falling
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:10.2°F
Dewpoint:2.8°F
Humidity:72%
Wind:WSW 12 gust 19 mph
Wind Chill: -5
Winter Storm Titan: Ice Storm Possible for Ohio Valley; Snowstorm for West, Midwest, Northeast

Major storm begins in California late Thursday night and Friday with heavy rain and mountain snow
Modest Midwest snow Saturday turns into potentially major winter storm for Midwest Sunday, Northeast later Sunday into Monday
Ice storm possible for Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, mid-Mississippi Valley, Ozarks
Heavy snowfall expected from Central Plains to Northeast



Ice Threat.....Winter Storm Titan.

There is a threat of significant, damaging ice accumulation Sunday across the Ohio Valley, and potentially parts of the mid-Mississippi Valley and Ozarks as well. It is too early to pinpoint the exact area that will be affected %u2013 reasonable scenarios range from just north of the Ohio River to just south of the Ohio River. The ultimate location of any ice storm will depend on exactly how far south the sub-freezing air near the ground reaches.

For Sunday, the northern scenario would target cities such as Indianapolis, Dayton, and Columbus (Ohio), and Cincinnati. The southern scenario could affect cities such as Memphis, Nashville, Paducah, Louisville, and Lexington.

On Monday, the ice accumulation zone is likely to be situated across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states. Again, depending on exactly where cold ground temperatures and warm air aloft line up, the ice threat could range from Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Washington, D.C., to a more southerly zone that might include Richmond and Norfolk, Va.

If you live in any of these areas, you should prepare for the possibility of a significant ice storm. We have some tips on things you may want to do now while the storm is still several days away.




The winter that won't end!.It won't even hit freezing tomorrow and winds we'll make it feel like near 0 at times.Not looking forward to ice.I would rather have heavy wet snow.
Year To Date Rain for SE FL
Looks like nature is going to repay me for mocking it about the March 6 fail storm and instead send me a ice storm XD.Ahh nature you sure are a joker...
Quoting 630. SFLWeatherman:
dry season?? not in WPB!
YEAH sure seems that way,but in the tropical season,you'll get your rains then..not too far away,we here had some rain but not the deluge i was expecting.
At 5:30 am, temperature at my house in Truckee, CA is 32 F.
Snowing, with about one inch on the ground, after raining well into the wee hours of the morning. Probably several more inches in the high country - my house sits at 5900 ft.
I really cant do another ice storm..

we along the western gulf coast need to keep a very good eye on this possible system the next week..already gfs is calling for 40-49mph winds,lets see if this verifies..rain waise its going to be a Huge system ..again if this verifies march 7th on..
march 7th...
Quoting 614. StormTrackerScott:
Hi ncstorm, yes the GFS and Euro have it as well. Looks like we really need to follow these trends on the nodels.



wave after wave of low pressures riding up the east coast..in that instance it looks like its heading out to sea and only affects Florida and Georgia..
Good morning from Central OK,

Here things are good, a bit chilly again - but not altogether too bad, yet.

Weekend promises to be interesting as the series of storms dumping rain on CA promises to bring some "wintery" weather to our area. All-in-all, looking as if the worst will pass just to the north of me. The moisture is much needed for some sections of the state as dry weather has persisted.

As for the GS cookie update: the little one looks as if she surpass the 500 box count! Woo hoo for her! Although the weather this weekend will impact prime cookie-selling time. :(

Hope all is well with you. Cheers.
well GFS has changed already,now the march7th storm goes into south florida..heavy rains...
here's the 00Z GFS.....a rainmaker for sure IF it verifies..models more that 2 days out often wrong..
Quoting 640. ncstorm:
I really cant do another ice storm..

The east coast has been in a wet pattern since April of last year.The only dry month I can remember was September.But what ever drought we had was taken away in October thanks to Karen and some other storm that merge and spun off the coast for 4 days (Karen really is a lost girl).We did have a dry week or two in November..but that was it!.
my 7-day is starting to pick up on it wenesday..
I am going outside to have a chat with old man winter
and while I am at it I will give jack frost a kick in the snowballs for ya all
Quoting 649. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
I am going outside to have a chat with old man winter
and while I am at it I will give jack frost a kick in the snowballs for ya all
LOL TY keeper,i think everyone wants this winter to end already..
funny thing is..IF this were in the ice age..what they are experiencing now in the northern states would be summer?..imagine if you will..what a Winter would be like?..wow..no thank you
WWW.GLOBALINCIDENTMAP.COM

Type: EarthQuake
3 hours ago
Magnitude: 3.7
DateTime: 2014-02-27 04:14:02
Region: Oklahoma
Depth: 5
Source: CSEM-EMSC Feed
Jack frost has been nipping at my nose all winter!.
Well..... I see the global warming talk seems to have slowed, and the focus now is back on climate change.....

I find the term "climate change" so laughable..... since the climate has be changing on the earth for Billions of years.....

I wonder why Greenland was named Greenland?

Oh well..... when your heating bill and and electric bill doubles or more..... all in the name of climate change,guess we will see how excited you are to spread the word then.....
AGW, sadly, is the wrong ball to be keeping our eye on. We are running out of cheap fossil fuels (specifically cheap abundant crude oil, our most flexible energy source, the one our society needs most to keep going). In order to merely maintain our flatlining production of crude oil we are having to take advantage of unconventional methods like tar sands, deep offshore, and shale oil, which are very expensive, even considering that crude oil is over $100 a barrel. Despite record investments by oil companies, very little increase in production has been seen and major oil companies are starting to cutback there investment in production. this is not good. There are many good articles and much good discussion at the blog Our Finite World by Gail Tverberg.
Quoting 656. Tazmanian:
Don't worry Taz.Relief is on the way.
Good morning guys. A good crew is on this am. Picked up .91" since yesterday in Longwood.
Quoting 655. thelmores:
Well..... I see the global warming talk seems to have slowed, and the focus now is back on climate change.....

I find the term "climate change" so laughable..... since the climate has be changing on the earth for Billions of years.....

I wonder why Greenland was named Greenland?

Oh well..... when your heating bill and and electric bill doubles or more..... all in the name of climate change,guess we will see how excited you are to spread the word then.....


Well, that's the worst attempt at trolling I've seen for a while.
661. NCstu
yea I would say unequivically that we are headed for another ice age. The Milankovitch cylce is about to switch, the maunder minimum is about to happen, and ummm... volcanoes I guess. Global cooling is right around the corner. Plus, carbon emissions don't account for nearly as much warming as people think. All those papers are the result of grant grabbing faux scientists who make their living off of fixing the data into something alarming. That's about as much BS as I can fit into one paragraph.
Now, this is interesting.....


Computer simulations by Professor Mark Z. Jacobson have shown that offshore wind farms with thousands of wind turbines could have sapped the power of three real-life hurricanes, significantly decreasing their winds and accompanying storm surge, and possibly preventing billions of dollars in damages...

...So he went about developing the model further and simulating what might happen if a hurricane encountered an enormous wind farm stretching many miles offshore and along the coast. Amazingly, he found that the wind turbines could disrupt a hurricane enough to reduce peak wind speeds by up to 92 mph and decrease storm surge by up to 79 percent.


full article.


5 words.... This guy is a genius.
Quoting 655. thelmores:
Well..... I see the global warming talk seems to have slowed, and the focus now is back on climate change.....

I find the term "climate change" so laughable..... since the climate has be changing on the earth for Billions of years.....

I wonder why Greenland was named Greenland?

I don't like the term either, because, yes, the climate does tend to change over time. AGW is extremely rapid climate change. It is not normal for the climate to change as much has it has over the last few generations. The climate change you're referring to happens over geological timescales.
If you'd like to know more about the name of the country Greenland (which has nothing to do with the climate) you can read up here: http://www.straightdope.com/columns/read/1965/sho uldnt-greenland-be-known-as-iceland-and-vice-versa
Quoting 658. washingtonian115:
Don't worry Taz.Relief is on the way.




Lol to late for that we will get march needed relief next fall and winter from are strong el Nino
Good morning to all..GFS 240 hours. Sry for the double image, this is better.

Quoting 664. Tazmanian:




Lol to late for that we will get march needed relief next fall and winter from are strong el Nino
maybe not taz the march of systems is yet to arrive
Quoting 635. washingtonian115:
The winter that won't end!.It won't even hit freezing tomorrow and winds we'll make it feel like near 0 at times.Not looking forward to ice.I would rather have heavy wet snow.


Maybe we can give 1978 a run for miserable duration. First 9 days of March that year had highs in the 30s every day. Average that time of year is low 50s
Quoting 520. sar2401:I think the problem is worse than that portrayed in the article. The response of many scientists was first to deny that a {pause, slowdown, flattening out, choose your poison} even happened. I've seen it here when Levi posted about the temperature flat lining and was immediately attacked because he didn't include ocean heat. That's not what he posted about, it was air temperature. That has been used in graphs for a long time to depict the warming of the globe.


He wasn't attacked. Scott countered Levi's arguments in a logical manner by pointing out several weaknesses. Global warming is the result an imbalance between incoming and outgoing radiation. Not including the largest heat sink on the planet in a discussion about whether the planet is warming or cooling is leaving out a rather large factor, don't you think?

Quoting 520. sar2401:I'm absolutely certain that's what the public thinks about when it comes to global warming, not total heat.


They also don't think about solar irradiance, optical thickness, aerosols, albedo, and numerous other factors that go into climate research. That's why climate scientists are the experts while the general public is not.

Quoting 520. sar2401:Same thing with the cold winter. People were falling all over themselves to prove it really wasn't cold.


It wasn't cold. It was cold in a region or two while most other regions were unusually warm (take the issues they were having in Sochi, for example).

Quoting 520. sar2401:What climate scientist need to communicate is that a decrease in the rate of increase of global air temperature doesn't prove or disprove global warming. A cold winter doesn't prove or disprove global warming. It's the trend that matters. Climate predictions are never going to get every wiggle right when it comes to things like global air temperactures. If the pause continues long enough, we then have a different trend line.


They try to. But scientists don't have billions of dollars to spend on massive PR campaigns to counteract all the idiocy being trotted out from groups like the Heartland Institute. It's same reason it took so long for scientists to finally get through to the public about smoking, asbestos, and numerous other issues in the past.

Quoting 520. sar2401:If the next 10 or so winters are this cold, something else is going on with climate other than what was predicted.


This winter wasn't cold globally.

Quoting 520. sar2401:None of the models are infallible but they are the best science we have now. Stop saying what happened didn't happen and concentrate on the point that the general trends are still intact.


What didn't happen? Temperatures are still rising. Choosing arbitrary high points, outliers, etc. to try and prove a point is dishonest. Choosing short timescales is dishonest. Leaving out important information is dishonest. If you want to make a solid argument then include solid research.

Quoting 667. georgevandenberghe:


Maybe we can give 1978 a run for miserable duration. First 9 days of March that year had highs in the 30s every day. Average that time of year is low 50s
It's been a while since we had a winter like this for sure.I just knew nature would make it up somehow.We couldn't have three whack winters in a row.
Quoting 662. Torito:
Now, this is interesting.....


Computer simulations by Professor Mark Z. Jacobson have shown that offshore wind farms with thousands of wind turbines could have sapped the power of three real-life hurricanes, significantly decreasing their winds and accompanying storm surge, and possibly preventing billions of dollars in damages...

full article.

Hello T. That was on the blog yesterday. At a cost of 235 billion dollars for the 78,000 wind turbines needed, and the fact that wind turbines would have to be modified to withstand winds in excess of 100 mph, the likelihood of that type of project is nil. If it could be done, just think of the energy that could possibly be produced from such a wind farm.
671. NCstu
On a serious note, someone in the blog gave me some great links to current research on ocean tempartures at depth. I just became aware of this awesome program. That could be a big step forward for research in that area. Excerpt:

Argo is a globalarray of 3,000 free-drifting profiling floats that measures thetemperature and salinity of the upper 2000 m of the ocean. This allows, for the first time, continuous monitoring of thetemperature, salinity, and velocity of the upper ocean, with all databeing relayed and made publicly available within hours aftercollection.
Quoting 670. hydrus:
Hello T. That was on the blog yesterday. At a cost of 235 billion dollars for the 78,000 wind turbines needed, and the fact that wind turbines would have to be modified to withstand winds in excess of 100 mph, the likelihood of that type of project is nil. If it could be done, just think of the energy that could possibly be produced from such a wind farm.



Yea. However, if the energy was stored, we could potentially make up that money in damages and energy to be used later. But, as you said, the cost to start it will be a major issue.
Quoting 672. Torito:



Yea. Then if the energy was stored, we could potentially make up that money in damages and energy to be used later. But, as you said, the cost to start it will be a major issue.


Electricity has to be used as it's made. It can't be 'stored'.
674. VR46L
Bit of Hail Just Passed through




Morning Afternoon Folks !
Quoting 673. yonzabam:


Electricity has to be used as it's made. It can't be 'stored'.


Perhaps, but that issue itself is being solved as well....


Finding ways to store millions of watts of excess electricity for times when the wind does not blow and the sun does not shine is the new Holy Grail. And there are signs that this goal- the day when large-scale energy storage becomes practical and cost-effective- might be within reach, as well. Some technologies that can store sizeable amounts of intermittent power are already deployed. Others, including at least a few with great promise, lie somewhere over the technological horizon.

Full article
Quoting 667. georgevandenberghe:


Maybe we can give 1978 a run for miserable duration. First 9 days of March that year had highs in the 30s every day. Average that time of year is low 50s
From my standpoint, the winters of the 1970,s were brutal. Even though I was living in South Florida, we made many trips to N.J. and New England. I was born in the mid 60,s, but my Father told me that winter in the early 60,s in New England and N.J.was much worse than the late 60,s. The 40,s and 50,s were bad virtually every single year. I realize that this is from 2 peoples standpoint, but many other folks I have spoken with agree on this.
Quoting 666. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
maybe not taz the march of systems is yet to arrive




Ok
Quoting 672. Torito:



Yea. However, if the energy was stored, we could potentially make up that money in damages and energy to be used later. But, as you said, the cost to start it will be a major issue.
If they can build such a wind farm, they most likely can find a way to store it. In fact, I bet it would be easier and much less costly to find ways to store the energy as it is to build a colossal wind farm.jmo
679. VR46L
Quoting 675. Torito:


Perhaps, but that issue itself is being solved as well....

Link

Finding ways to store millions of watts of excess electricity for times when the wind doesn’t blow and the sun doesn’t shine is the new Holy Grail. And there are signs that this goal — the day when large-scale energy storage becomes practical and cost-effective — might be within reach, as well. Some technologies that can store sizeable amounts of intermittent power are already deployed. Others, including at least a few with great promise, lie somewhere over the technological horizon.


This windmill thing is cracking me up .. we have loads of wind turbines here ,up in the mountains .. any time there is a gale ,they are switched off ...cos wind over 55 miles can damage the turbines ....
Oh well..... when your heating bill and and electric bill doubles or more..... all in the name of climate change,guess we will see how excited you are to spread the word then.


kind of makes me feel its all important to spread the word now
Quoting 679. VR46L:


This windmill thing is cracking me up .. we have loads of wind turbines here ,up in the mountains .. any time there is a gale ,they are switched off ...cos wind over 55 miles can damage the turbines ....


Yes, thats another issue... According to that article I posted earlier, the wind farms will break in wind speeds over 110 MPH... However, if many are built in many places, there could be a chance that the storm would not have time to become that strong in the first place. Just something to look out for...
Quoting 668. Xyrus2000:
Choosing arbitrary high points, outliers, etc. to try and prove a point is dishonest. Choosing short timescales is dishonest. Leaving out important information is dishonest. If you want to make a solid argument then include solid research.

I don't get why SAR has not grasped this fallacy yet. Choosing 16-years versus 15- or 17-years results in vastly different slopes. 1998 was an outlier-warm year. If you start at a high point, of course your graph will have less slope. Dishonest and highly uninformative.
Quoting 679. VR46L:


This windmill thing is cracking me up .. we have loads of wind turbines here ,up in the mountains .. any time there is a gale ,they are switched off ...cos wind over 55 miles can damage the turbines ....


I'm not understanding why anyone would want to turn on giant blades during a hurricane..do we not have enough projectiles during a hurricane..we want to add giant blades to make it more interesting?
Yes, thats another issue... According to that article I posted earlier, the wind farms will break in wind speeds over 110 MPH... However, if many are built in many places, there could be a chance that the storm would not have time to become that strong in the first place. Just something to look out for.


torito....the scale needed...is impossible...the amount for just one area as shown in the article i read is more than already in places after decades in the US...now multiply that number by the entire gulf coast...not to mention the east coast.....turbines as a means of eletric generation i agree with...turbines as storm control...doesn't work for me
Quoting 617. LargoFl:
this massive blob Mar-7 goes into the big bend of florida on the ooz GFS..wow...
That is the beginning of a serious storm....If it does pan out...And it might not...Notice the 1034 high to the N.E...
Quoting 669. washingtonian115:
It's been a while since we had a winter like this for sure.I just knew nature would make it up somehow.We couldn't have three whack winters in a row.


1976-77 1977-78 1978-79, all notable for severity of different kinds; the first was bitter and dry but ended early, the second was snowy and cold but not extreme but went on into the first third of March, the third was less remarkable for the East Coast but very cold and snowy for the midwest (and in February the East also)

The fourth in the series was the unremarkable winter of 1979-80 except for tidewater VA and NC which had record snow accumulations.

Nearby Airports

New Haven | Mostly Cloudy | 25 °F
Chester | Scattered Clouds | 23 °F
Meriden | Mostly Cloudy | 15 °F




Nearby Weather Stations

Bishops Orchards-Meadow Ridge | 27.3 °F
Orcutt | 33.8 °F
Bishops Orchards-LHR | 27.2 °F
Quoting 659. StormTrackerScott:
Good morning guys. A good crew is on this am. Picked up .91" since yesterday in Longwood.


.73" here in Waterford Lakes in East Orlando.
Quoting 655. thelmores:
I wonder why Greenland was named Greenland?

Hint...not because the continent was predominantly green.
Quoting 673. yonzabam:


Electricity has to be used as it's made. It can't be 'stored'.


Hence why battery technology is the major long term barrier to most renewables becoming mainstream in the U.S.
692. NCstu
Quoting 690. ScottLincoln:

Hint...not because the continent was predominantly green.
It was indisputably greenER due to the medieval warm period.
693. mati
Quoting 678. hydrus:
If they can build such a wind farm, they most likely can find a way to store it. In fact, I bet it would be easier and much less costly to find ways to store the energy as it is to build a colossal wind farm.jmo


The idea i have seen is to convert the extra electricity to either hydrogen or methane and then to ship the methane via conventional gas pipelines to whomever needs it...

Link

Quoting 676. hydrus:
From my standpoint, the winters of the 1970,s were brutal. Even though I was living in South Florida, we made many trips to N.J. and New England. I was born in the mid 60,s, but my Father told me that winter in the early 60,s in New England and N.J.was much worse than the late 60,s. The 40,s and 50,s were bad virtually every single year. I realize that this is from 2 peoples standpoint, but many other folks I have spoken with agree on this.


The 40's and the 50's were bad virtually every year??

In what way? In terms of winter weather? If so then you were mistaken because the winters of 1948-49 through 1953-54 were six winters in a row of anomalous warmth still unrivaled in the temperature record.
Quoting 685. hydrus:
That is the beginning of a serious storm....If it does pan out...And it might not...Notice the 1034 high to the N.E...
this one we need to watch huh hydrus..whatever it becomes its got florida written all over it
happening now: climate change presentation/conference on a NAS/Royal Society Q&A put together recently


Link
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
DEPRESSION SUBTROPICALE 13-20132014
16:00 PM RET February 27 2014
===========================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Subtropical Depression (997 hPa) located at 32.7S 37.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving south southwest at 7 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
45 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the northwestern quadrant, up to 165 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 240 NM in the southeastern quadrant. Gale force winds locally present in the southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: NIL

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS 33.2S 37.7E - 40 knots (Depression Subtropicale)
24 HRS 34.4S 37.8E - 40 knots (Depression Subtropicale)
48 HRS 40.6S 42.4E - Depression Extratropicale

Additional Information
========================
The non tropical low pressure area that formed Monday night close to the south-eastern coasts of southern Africa has gained some tropical characteristics during the last 24 hours as deep convection has flared up close to the center and wrapped half the way around the center. This situation has been possible as the environmental shear is easing as the system is currently close to the upper level trough axis.

The system has hybrid characteristics with both latent heat release and baroclinic process involved for sustaining its strength. As usual for this kind of low, the cloud tops are rather warm and the system is over marginal sea surface temperatures in the 24-25C range. The current intensity is based on scatt data of this morning that is showing 30 knots winds over the whole circulation and even 30-35 knots in the southwestern quadrant.

Within the next few days, the system should continue to round the low to mid-level subtropical highs located to its southeast that tend to move eastwards. Friday night, the system should accelerate southwards and merge within a the mid-lat westerlies Saturday night.

This system should still be within a weak vertical wind shear environment for the next 24 hours. After that (Friday night), north to north-westerly shear is expected to strengthen. The system should therefore undergo its extratropical transition.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03
21:00 PM JST February 27 2014
====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Caroline Islands

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 9.0N 148.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 8.8N 148.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Caroline Islands

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15F
0:00 AM FST February 28 2014
=======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 15F (998 hPa) located at 15.7S 179.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports. The depression is reported as moving north northeast at 7 knots.

Convection remains persistent along the southern flank in past 24 hours. Organization has not improved much in past 24 hours. System lies under an upper ridge, east of an upper trough in a moderate sheared environment. Outflow good to the south but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.2 wrap on LOG10 spiral yielding DT=2.0, MET=2.0 and PT=2.0.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Global models agree on a northeast movement and then a southeast movement with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS 15.8S 179.7W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS 16.8S 178.5W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS 20.3S 176.9W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
905 AM EST THU FEB 27 2014

.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
14Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
DOMINATED BY RIDGING OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...FOLLOWED
DOWNSTREAM BY A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN CONTROL OF MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. A POTENT AND VERY COLD LOBE OF ENERGY
WITHIN THIS TROUGH IS PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH
H5 HEIGHTS OF 485-490DM AND 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -30. THAT IS COLD
FOR THIS LATE IN FEBRUARY...EVEN FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WE WILL
SEE JUST A QUICK GLANCING COOL DOWN THE NEXT DAY OR 2 BEFORE A QUICK
REBOUND IN TEMPS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK COLD FRONT IS NOW ANALYZED OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA...THROUGH ALL OF OUR FORECAST ZONES. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED
NORTH AND NORTHWEST ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH A COOLER AIRMASS
FILTERING SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 40S TO THE
NORTH OF I-4...RANGING TO THE 50S THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND IN THE
60S DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER WILL SLOW THE DIURNAL TEMP RISE AND MAKE TODAY THE COOLEST DAY
OF THE WEEK FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

OUR REGION RESIDES ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
WITHIN A FAST WESTERLY FLOW CONTAINING SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES
STREAMING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. PLENTY OF LEFT OVER COLUMN
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW THESE IMPULSES ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE DIVERGENT
UPPER JET STRUCTURE TO PROVIDE A FEW PERIODS LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST IMPULSE THIS MORNING
WILL ALIGN WITH THIS JET TO PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...WITH THE SUBSEQUENT
FOLLOWING IMPULSES TRENDING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA BY
THE EVENING HOURS ALONG WITH THE MORE EFFICIENT UPPER DIVERGENCE.
THIS TREND IS SHOWN BY THE LATEST RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH THE
GLOBAL GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE. DUE TO THIS CONSENSUS AND SUPPORTING
SATELLITE TRENDS...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDED TOWARD THIS
PHILOSOPHY. THE WEAKNESS OF EACH IMPULSE...MEANS THAT THEIR SYNOPTIC
INFLUENCES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW WELL EACH OF THE NWP
GUIDANCE MEMBERS INITIALIZE. WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY THROUGH THE
DAY TO FIND THOSE MEMBERS INITIALIZING THE CENTRAL GULF REGION THE
BEST...AND CONTINUE TO TREND TIMING/LOCATION OF THE SHOWER BATCHES
THROUGH THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.

BY THE SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT...MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR
LIFT ALONG WITH THE BEST COLUMN MOISTURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WILL SHOW ANY LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES ENDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH WITH A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS BECOMING STRONGLY
ESTABLISHED FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD. A FAVORABLE DRAINAGE FLOW
PATTERN LOOKS TO BRING ENOUGH COLD AIR SOUTHWARD THAT WE ARE
CONCERNED WITH TEMPS LATE NIGHT APPROACHING...OR EVEN DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF LEVY COUNTY. A FREEZE WATCH
IS CURRENTLY UP FOR LEVY COUNTY...AND WILL BE LOOKING CLOSELY AT THE
12Z GUIDANCE LATER THIS MORNING TO DETERMINE IF THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SUB-FREEZING TEMPS IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT AND UPGRADE TO A FREEZE
WARNING. IN TERMS OF FROST...THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IN THE MOS
GUIDANCE IS ALMOST TOO GREAT (5-7 DEGREES) TO SUPPORT MUCH FROST
FORMATION ACROSS LEVY COUNTY. HOWEVER...IF WE END UP DE-COUPLING THE
BOUNDARY LAYER LATE AT NIGHT...THEN THIS DIFFERENCE MAY END UP BEING
LESS. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR PATCHY FROST MAY ACTUALLY EXIST
SOUTH OF THE FREEZE WATCH ACROSS CITRUS/SUMTER AND HERNANDO COUNTIES
WHERE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING...BUT THE DRY
AIR INTRUSION WILL BE LESS. WILL ALSO LOOK AT THIS POTENTIAL...AND
WILL LIKELY ADD FROST INTO THE GRIDS FURTHER SOUTH THAN IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE
LOWER/MID 50S DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES.

AFTER THE COOL START...FRIDAY WILL BEGIN A SEVERAL DAY STRETCH OF
FAIR WEATHER AND QUICKLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A GREAT LOOKING
WEEKEND IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER APPEARS IN STORE.

&&
699. VR46L
Quoting 690. ScottLincoln:

Hint...not because the continent was predominantly green.


When did Greenland become a continent ?I thought it was like India a sub continent .....
700. mati
Quoting 692. NCstu:
It was indisputably greenER due to the medieval warm period.


maybe maybenot Groenland was named as such, according to the norse saga's, in the hope of attracting more settlers from Island

Link
Quoting 659. StormTrackerScott:
Good morning guys. A good crew is on this am. Picked up .91" since yesterday in Longwood.


Another disappointing rain event in Clearwater. I got about .25" at my house which seems to be about the normal for the Bay Area. I am getting more interested in what the models are saying around the 7th. Could be a big weather event for Florida.
6Z GFS for Monday......................
Not the expert on GW or climate change but I always say the same mantra; the single biggest short-term threat facing Man from climate issues is fresh water to drink and for agriculture. To the degree that climate change impacts this issue (remember that 1 billion people on Earth get their water for drinking and agriculture from snow pack melt) we might be in some serious trouble at the moment.

Also remember that the effects of climate change are "regional" in nature. If we do get a "super" El Nino over the next year, we have to think beyond the impacts of a shortened Atlantic hurricane season; California might get a lot of rain recovery the next Winter as a result, but we could also see some brutal drought conditions in the mid-west for the spring and summer of 2015.

Just Sayin.....................
was all of Greenland green and warm, or just some areas along certain coasts?
How Greenland got its Name...........Link
In regards to the wind turbines... has anybody considered that disrupting the hurricane may be a bad thing? Hurricanes have been forming on earth for billions of years. I believe that they are necessary for earth's balance. Screwing with mother nature is not necessarily a good thing. I'm all for ways of manufacturing ways for us to protect ourselves from the storms, but not thinking eliminating the storm is the best way to go about that.
Quoting 673. yonzabam:


Electricity has to be used as it's made. It can't be 'stored'.

Check out several technologies to store the energy of electricity -- it's the energy you store. Batteries store electricity as chemical energy, pumped storage stores it as potential energy, as does compressed air storage. They're all in use to "store electricity" and when they're used the electricity becomes available at a different time than when it was generated.
709. NCstu
Professor Jeffrey Park, from Yale University, responds:


It is easy to overinterpret terminology. The phrases “Medieval Warm Period,” “Little Ice Age,” and even “Greenland” have some history behind them. Near the year 1000AD the Norse Vikings established farming settlements in Greenland. Subsistence farming would have been impossible in Greenland in 1900AD, so this is clear evidence of unusual warmth in the North Atlantic region at that time. Similarly, anecdotal evidence of unusually cold winters in the early-modern period in Northern Europe (roughly during the Protestant Reformation) and of temporary advances of glaciers in the European Alps suggested a period of cooler climate there. How large were these climate excursions? How long did they last? How widespread were they? Because we don’t have eyewitnesses at all places in all centuries, scientists have tried to answer these questions with climate-proxy data.
I never knew..the USA wants to BUY Greenland?..did you??....................There are other theories as to how Greenland got its name. One theory is that the “green” in Greenland is actually a translation error. The word “grunt” actually means ground and it could be that Greenland was meant to be named Gruntland (or ground land).

The island has never been heavily populated. Much of it is covered by a sheet of ice. The only area that is not covered in ice is only clear because the air is so dry that ice cannot form. Many Native cultures have used the island as a hunting ground and several nations have used the island as a strategic launching point or a base during various conflicts and wars.

The island is currently owned by Denmark despite previous attempts by the United States to purchase the island.
Quoting 706. fire635:
In regards to the wind turbines... has anybody considered that disrupting the hurricane may be a bad thing? Hurricanes have been forming on earth for billions of years. I believe that they are necessary for earth's balance. Screwing with mother nature is not necessarily a good thing. I'm all for ways of manufacturing ways for us to protect ourselves from the storms, but not thinking eliminating the storm is the best way to go about that.


they are already doing it with the drones according to some bloggers on here..
712. VR46L
.

Correct image now
RAP model says rain for south florida Tomorrow...
716. NCstu
Quoting 713. LargoFl:
its interesting to note..that once the panama canal was finished, the two continents..north and south america were indeed seperated.
there is a bit of an ecological crisis in Nicaragua as the Chinese are quickly making way in creating a new canal.
Link

Then it will be 3 continents!!!
717. VR46L
Quoting 706. fire635:
In regards to the wind turbines... has anybody considered that disrupting the hurricane may be a bad thing? Hurricanes have been forming on earth for billions of years. I believe that they are necessary for earth's balance. Screwing with mother nature is not necessarily a good thing. I'm all for ways of manufacturing ways for us to protect ourselves from the storms, but not thinking eliminating the storm is the best way to go about that.


I believe you are right too , with last year bust season we had very little rain in the summer . Hurricanes bring rain to mid latitudes that would not get as much rain with out them .(ok at times in the British Isles that would be a good thing but others not so much .) I hate the Idea of man ,interfering with nature like that , A step to far ....
Quoting 716. NCstu:
there is a bit of an ecological crisis in Nicaragua as the Chinese are quickly making way in creating a new canal.
Link

Then it will be 3 continents!!!
hmmm north south and central..lol...geez
lucky




ECMWF shows a major swath of up to a foot of wintery stuff as well
Interesting tropical forecast for 2014 here..with 4 possibilities..................Link
Quoting 719. GeorgiaStormz:
lucky




ECMWF shows a major swath of up to a foot of wintery stuff as well
this winter just does NOT want to give up..its almost March!!
Quoting 685. hydrus:
That is the beginning of a serious storm....If it does pan out...And it might not...Notice the 1034 high to the N.E...


Yeah not just a big rain event but a big wind event as well with a tight pressure gradient across N FL up to NC.
Quoting 662. Torito:
Now, this is interesting.....


Computer simulations by Professor Mark Z. Jacobson have shown that offshore wind farms with thousands of wind turbines could have sapped the power of three real-life hurricanes, significantly decreasing their winds and accompanying storm surge, and possibly preventing billions of dollars in damages...

...So he went about developing the model further and simulating what might happen if a hurricane encountered an enormous wind farm stretching many miles offshore and along the coast. Amazingly, he found that the wind turbines could disrupt a hurricane enough to reduce peak wind speeds by up to 92 mph and decrease storm surge by up to 79 percent.


full article.


5 words.... This guy is a genius.


Would love to see a real world trial on this. Double bonus. Wind electricity and hurricane protection.

Somehow, when things sound too good to be true...
what happens IF..no el-nino this year?
Quoting 710. LargoFl:
I never knew..the USA wants to BUY Greenland?..did you??....................There are other theories as to how Greenland got its name. One theory is that the “green” in Greenland is actually a translation error. The word “grunt” actually means ground and it could be that Greenland was meant to be named Gruntland (or ground land).

The island has never been heavily populated. Much of it is covered by a sheet of ice. The only area that is not covered in ice is only clear because the air is so dry that ice cannot form. Many Native cultures have used the island as a hunting ground and several nations have used the island as a strategic launching point or a base during various conflicts and wars.

The island is currently owned by Denmark despite previous attempts by the United States to purchase the island.


Yep. and if you want to emigrate to Greenland, they are trying to make that easier, but for now I think it is the same as if you wanted to emigrate to Denmark. They need skilled and unskilled labor like crazy. The catch, you have to live on Greenland.
Quoting 706. fire635:
In regards to the wind turbines... has anybody considered that disrupting the hurricane may be a bad thing? Hurricanes have been forming on earth for billions of years. I believe that they are necessary for earth's balance. Screwing with mother nature is not necessarily a good thing. I'm all for ways of manufacturing ways for us to protect ourselves from the storms, but not thinking eliminating the storm is the best way to go about that.


Just look up "Yellowstone mismanagement". Mankind has a penchant for knowing everything there is to know...and then being shown that we are a bunch of idiots.
Quoting 692. NCstu:
It was indisputably greenER due to the medieval warm period.

"Indisputably" is probably not the term you were looking for.
We do not have objective precipitation records, vegetation indeces, or objective temperature records back that far, so we can only infer through anecdotes and proxies. We also have to be careful to talk about the same parts of Greenland; many of our proxies are for the ice cap, not the warmer coastal areas, and the coastal areas tend to be where we only have anecdotes. "Greener" is also highly subjective and has little scientific meaning. I will assume that "more natural flora and higher crop suitability" is close to what you meant.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that Greenland was more supportive of some flora during the regional warming of the medieval warm period. Temperature reconstructions are not as conclusive; this one from NOAA shows temperatures in the southern portion of Greenland at comparable levels to today.




To my knowledge, almost all of the Norse settlements (and thus, almost all of our anecdotal evidence) was in southern Greenland.

Be careful not to be led astray by looking at proxies alone, however. Proxies respond to climate over several years to decades, and the current change in climate is moving at a rate that will not yet show up accurately. When you look at the instrumental record compared to the proxies, the picture becomes quite clear - Greenland is quickly becoming warmerwarming to the same level as the medieval warm period, and it is looking likely that we've already surpassed that with no end in sight.

"Indisputably greener" (warmer) is starting to look in dispute.


Quoting 724. LargoFl:
what happens IF..no el-nino this year?


another Neutral or La Nina year? I don't understand the question.
What a mess

730. wxmod
Scientists liken Chinese smog to ‘nuclear winter’

"Air pollution in parts of China is now so extreme it could lead to conditions similar to a “nuclear winter,” scientists say. The smog that covers the country has become so thick it is impeding photosynthesis, potentially disrupting China’s food supply."

http://rt.com/news/chinese-smog-nuclear-winter-00 8/
our northern states here could use This energy This winter huh..................Currently geothermal power heats 89%[6] of the houses in Iceland and over 54% of the primary energy used in Iceland comes from geothermal sources. Geothermal power is used for many things in Iceland. 57.4% of the energy is used for space heat, 15.9% is used for electricity, and the remaining amount is used in many miscellaneous areas: swimming pools, fish farms, and greenhouses, for example.[6]
Quoting 721. LargoFl:
this winter just does NOT want to give up..its almost March!!


We good down here. Just a lil chilly... no winter precip :'(
Quoting 730. wxmod:
Scientists liken Chinese smog to ‘nuclear winter’

"Air pollution in parts of China is now so extreme it could lead to conditions similar to a “nuclear winter,” scientists say. The smog that covers the country has become so thick it is impeding photosynthesis, potentially disrupting China’s food supply."

http://rt.com/news/chinese-smog-nuclear-winter-00 8/
one note on this..Milk prices in the USA will go up because China is buying so much of Our domestic milk production
Quoting 728. Dakster:


another Neutral or La Nina year? I don't understand the question.
yes could be another lack luster storm season like 2013..which is OK with me..we really dont need any hurricanes hitting the usa
735. mati
Quoting 704. CuriousAboutClimate:
was all of Greenland green and warm, or just some areas along certain coasts?


just the coast lines and fjords

History of Greenland


Temperature Record of Greenland
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 703. weathermanwannabe:
the single biggest short-term threat facing Man from climate issues is fresh water to drink and for agriculture.


I dont think you'd be the only way saying this as I've read many scientists discussing these issues. Seems very reasonable to me.

Quoting 703. weathermanwannabe:
Also remember that the effects of climate change are "regional" in nature. If we do get a "super" El Nino over the next year, we have to think beyond the impacts of a shortened Atlantic hurricane season; California might get a lot of rain recovery the next Winter as a result, but we could also see some brutal drought conditions in the mid-west for the spring and summer of 2015.

I think what's more accurate is to say that climate is global in nature, but what humans tend to feel (and be most impacted by) is weather and climate variability. Humans do not really notice climate changes, but we do notice longer term droughts/wet periods (climate variability) or short term floods, heat waves, and storms (weather). We won't necessarily notice sea level rise, but we will notice when that next storm comes that it causes more flooding than the same storm 20 years prior.

This is one area where we certainly need to do better. Unfortunately our understanding of teleconnections beyond ENSO are still weak. Forecasts for this recent winter across the CONUS are one example.
738. JEL
Why are Lakes Michigan and Ontario relatively open while Superior, Huron, and Erie are practically frozen over? I base this on the photo in this article. It can't be east-west orientation (relative to wind, for example), because Michigan and Ontario are perpendicular (roughly), and Superior is a deep lake while Erie is relatively shallow.
Quoting 639. oldnewmex:
At 5:30 am, temperature at my house in Truckee, CA is 32 F.
Snowing, with about one inch on the ground, after raining well into the wee hours of the morning. Probably several more inches in the high country - my house sits at 5900 ft.


I know, right? We got maybe a quarter inch of rain overnight (I was just hauling my you-know-what into the main house to start breakfast about when you posted.) If you look at the pasture not-quite-edge-on, it's starting to look green. (Which is a little early, but the goats aren't complaining. It isn't so much that they're getting more than a nibble, as it is giving them something to DO.)

We're at just about 4000 feet here, no snow, just rain. It woke me up twice during the night, ahhhh.