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NHC Adds Unnamed Subtropical Storm to 2013's Atlantic Tally

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:19 PM GMT on February 17, 2014

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) announced last week that the hurricane season of 2013 had one more storm that should have been named--a short-lived low that developed south of the Azores during early December, which became a subtropical storm on December 5. "Should-Have-Been-Named-Subtropical-Storm-Nestor" reached top sustained winds of 45 mph. The storm formed over unusually cool waters of 22°C (72°F), and brought sustained 10-minute winds of 37 mph with a gust to 54 mph near 00 UTC December 7 to Santa Maria in the southeastern Azores. With this addition, the 2013 Atlantic season ended with 14 tropical and subtropical storms. Two, Ingrid and Humberto, became hurricanes, but neither became a major hurricane.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Unnamed Subtropical Storm Fourteen at 15:30 UTC December 6, 2013, as it approached the Azores Islands. At the time, "Should-Have-Been-Named-Subtropical-Storm-Nestor" had 45 mph sustained winds. Image credit: NASA.

December named storms are rare
The unnamed 2013 subtropical storm is the Atlantic's first December tropical or subtropical storm since Tropical Storm Olga of 2007. There have been eighteen Atlantic tropical or subtropical storms that have formed in the month of December since record keeping began in 1851. Only four have hit land. Eight of the eighteen storms have occurred since 1995. Eight have been hurricanes, with a Category 2 hurricane in 1925 being the only December storm to hit the mainland U.S.

December named storms have higher than usual odds of being subtropical in nature, since the ocean temperatures required to create a fully tropical system are typically lacking. The NHC began naming subtropical storms in 2002. Between 1968 and 2001, subtropical storms were simply given numbers ("One", "Two", etc). Before 1968, subtropical storms were never classified as such, but were sometimes called "Unnamed storm". A landmark study performed by Herbert and Poteat (1975) led to a substantial increase in the identification and naming of subtropical storms in the late 1970s and early 1980s. However, when Bob Sheets became director of the National Hurricane Center between 1987 and 1995, he declared that subtropical storms should not be recognized, and very few subtropical storms were classified during this period. Prior to 1968, there are many systems that were subtropical in the Atlantic that should have been included in the official HURDAT database. I've seen estimates that 5-10 storms were missed in the 1950s, and ten between 1969 and 1999. A reanalysis effort is underway to include these "missed" storms into the database. However, it will be several years before this process is complete. Here are all of the tropical and subtropical storms that have formed in December in the Atlantic since 1995:

2013: Unnamed Subtropical Storm Fourteen, December 5
2007: Tropical Storm Olga, December 11
2005: Tropical Storm Zeta, December 30
2003: Tropical Storm Odette, December 4
2003: Tropical Storm Peter, December 7

Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters titled, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is an "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high".

Mexican National Hurricane Agency formed
The president of Mexico announced in mid-January the creation of a new National Hurricane Agency. The new institution may begin operations as soon as this summer, and will study how to generate and communicate hurricane and severe weather forecasts.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. sar2401
Quoting Haiyan2013:
I meant 2005 season because I would be exhausted.

Yes, I know. I imagine Max was pretty exhausted when retired.
1002. Levi32
Quoting 967. Gearsts:
Levi will you keep making videos this year for hurricane season?


Yes. I hibernate during the winter, writing code in my cave.
1003. wxmod
Quoting 999. sar2401:

"Before we get too excited about the prospect of burying all of our CO2 in the form of zeolites, however, we need to realize how much we're talking about. The US produces almost 6 billion tons per year of CO2 from the combustion of fossil fuels. At 83 liters of CO2 stored per liter of UCLA's zeolite, we're still talking about 9 cubic miles of material, every year. And in terms of your car's exhaust, it would take about 175 gallons of the stuff to soak up the CO2 produced from burning 12 gallons of gasoline. In other words, while it could be used as a sort of "catalytic converter" for automotive CO2, your car would need a zeolite tank ten times larger than its fuel tank, and you'd have to empty it at every fill-up."

More here.


I always wonder why you have all this info at your finger tips. Your link: energyoutlook.blogspot.com Do you work for the petro chemical industry?
1004. wxmod
Quoting 1000. DonnieBwkGA:
Sounds like zeolites are a zilly idea.


2 comments about zeolites so far, instantly. Who would ever have thought?
1005. beell
Quoting 992. DonnieBwkGA:


Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 I believe.

And Allison down in Galveston
somehow lost her sanity...


And Dimples who now lives in Temple's got the law lookin' for me.
1006. sar2401
Quoting DonnieBwkGA:


Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 I believe.

And Allison down in Galveston
somehow lost her sanity...

Oops, forgot about Allison. The only real
TS that got retired. I still consider Sandy a hurricane, regardless of the technical details. If 2011 Philippe was a hurricane, so was Sandy.
1007. Pallis
Quoting 984. sar2401:

Those are probably good things to do every day...well, except for flying to the mainland. However, do you know of Dr. Joan Latchman? She was the acting (now permanent) director of of the Seismic Research Centre at the UWI when she made the rather rash prediction that a magnitude 8 earthquake was about to strike Barbados. Fortunately for Barbados, this was in December, 2010, and that earthquake has yet to strike. She has been making these kinds of predictions for years. People always continue their normal routine after an earthquake and deal with another one as it occurs. While meteorology still has a way to go before long range predictions become more accurate, they are already more accurate than seismic predictions by a large factor.
Agreed to a point. South Florida Wells Record Japanese Earthquake - WaterWired
aquadoc.typepad.com/.../south-florida-wells-recor d-japanese-earthquake. The entire earth is connected, and quoting anything in the last couple hundred years as being status quo does not impress anyone, not even in meteorology, which claims to be a new science if you cherrypick all the records before October 3, 1970.
Interesting. It's well within viewing distance of my location, so I went out and looked with what little light there was but didn't really see anything except maybe some cloudiness.

Very odd raincloud if it is one
1009. barbamz
Snowy owls invade ‘south’; cold affects waterfowl
WP, by Associated Press, Updated: Wednesday, February 19, 1:10 AM
ALBANY, N.Y. — Reports from tens of thousands of bird-counting volunteers show a southern invasion of Arctic-dwelling snowy owls has spread to 25 states, and frigid cold is causing unusual movements of waterfowl.
Results are still coming in from the four-day annual Great Backyard Bird Count sponsored by the Cornell Lab of Ornithology, National Audubon Society and Bird Studies Canada. Sponsors say the event, which ended Monday, drew participants from a record 127 countries, surpassing last year’s 110. Most were from the U.S. and Canada. ...


More see link above, and have a good night from Germany where winter is said to be over (German National weatherservice)!

BTW new blog from weatherhistorian:
January 2014 Global Weather Extremes Summary
Man, the more I think about the "almost Arthur" the more I wished it happened and did you guys notice I said not Nestor and the almost Arthur:-).
1011. sar2401
Quoting wxmod:


I always wonder why you have all this info at your finger tips. Your link: energyoutlook.blogspot.com Do you work for the petro chemical industry?

Yes, I do. Plus the CIA, NWO, and the Illuminati. I'm sure that's the answer you were looking for. Otherwise, it takes about 30 seconds to do a google search and read an article.
Quoting 920. FLWaterFront:
It took the NHC and the NWS at least a decade to admit that Andrew was in fact a Cat 5 hurricane, even though it was quite obvious to a great many of us from all the available evidence.

The Hurricane Center, perhaps NOAA and the NWS as well did not want to highlight the fact that they failed to send any reconnaissance flights into the storm right when it was most needed.. right when Andrew was crossing the Gulf Stream and heading straight for Southern (Miami)Dade county. I distinctly remember them saying on that night that the last recon flight finished around 11PM when Andrew was still a steady and strong Cat 4 over the Bahamas. On that night, the next day and for years afterwards all of the media and the weather authorities blithely referred to Andrew as a Cat 5 storm, in spite of the spectacular satellite presentation which showed Andrew going through a most obvious rapid intensification phase immediate prior to landfall in South Florida. Additionally, because Andrew was a rapidly strengthening storm at landfall, the winds were more efficiently brought down to the surface, increasing the destructive potential even further.

There was a LOT of evidence that Andrew was a strong Cat 5 and NOT a Cat 4, right from the beginning and for years afterwards. Claiming that taking a decade or so to admit this, after a more thorough review of the wind damage and whatnot was an honest mistake is stretching things beyond the breaking point, in my opinion. They simply screwed up by not having reconnaissance fly in during the passage over the Gulf Stream. And to top it off, even on that night, Bob Sheets at the NHC reported that their wind measuring instrumentation failed and was blown clean off the roof of the NHC building after measuring a 164 mph wind gust! This was in Coral Gables, more than 25 miles north of the center of the smaller than average Andrew. So clearly the max winds in the strongest part of the storm further south were far higher than just Cat 4 strength. But with no aircraft measurements there was no concrete data to prove this and so that is how it stood for so long before the real truth was revealed.

You have a lot of misconceptions and half-truths in your post... too many to call out individually. To improve your understanding of Hurricane Andrew, why it was originally called a Cat4, and why it was later upgraded to a Cat5 from re-analysis, I might suggest reading "A Reanalysis of Andrew's Intensity."

One figure that I think you should really take a look at is Figure 4. It shows numerous methods of estimating hurricane intensity operationally. The majority did not show Andrew as a category 5 (137 kts) at Florida landfall.
Quoting 1008. opal92nwf:
Interesting. It's well within viewing distance of my location, so I went out and looked with what little light there was but didn't really see anything except maybe some cloudiness.

Very odd raincloud if it is one

Could also be something else, maybe smoke from a fire.
Isn't there an air force base near there? That could offer some possibilities as well.
Quoting 1011. sar2401:

Yes, I do. Plus the CIA, NWO, and the Illuminati. I'm sure that's the answer you were looking for. Otherwise, it takes about 30 seconds to do a google search and read an article.


Don't be modest. You're the grand poobah of the NSA ;)
1015. sar2401
Quoting ScottLincoln:

You have a lot of misconceptions and half-truths in your post... too many to call out individually. To improve your understanding of Hurricane Andrew, why it was originally called a Cat4, and why it was later upgraded to a Cat5 from re-analysis, I might suggest reading "A Reanalysis of Andrew's Intensity."

One figure that I think you should really take a look at is Figure 4. It shows numerous methods of estimating hurricane intensity operationally. The majority did not show Andrew as a category 5 (137 kts) at Florida landfall.

So it took two years, not "almost a decade". Seems like a fatal and primary misunderstanding for someone who wants to berate the NHC, not to mention the incorrect assertion about the recon flight.
1016. Gearsts
Quoting 1002. Levi32:


Yes. I hibernate during the winter, writing code in my cave.
lol
Guys, the dome of heat was broken last Wednesday here in Brazil. Here in Porto Alegre we had storms, but we had awesome and menacing clouds. Friday it rained hard, and since then every day has been windy due to a large area of ​​high pressure that is bringing much wind and enough moisture. The prediction is that from tomorrow the temperatures begin to rise more and the wind tends to weaken. Over the weekend wait temperatures around 95 º F/35 º C. Good night for you.
1018. Grothar
Quoting 983. PalmBeachWeather:
And while we are on the subject of weather, I think Fallon will do a wonderful job, No Johnny Carson, but a great entertainer...


I still miss Jack Paar
The negative PDO pattern doesn't look as muddled today. Warmer waters are back northeast of Japan and a cooler tongue is becoming more apparent off the WC.

The Atlantic has a very negative AMO look to it. Cooler tropics, warm subtropics. Just a temporary thing.

1020. Gearsts
Quoting 1019. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The negative PDO pattern doesn't look as muddled today. Warmer waters are back northeast of Japan.

The Atlantic has a very negative AMO look to it. Cooler tropics, warm subtropics. Just a temporary thing.

The atlantic is looking very ugly for hurricane season with that setup.
Quoting 1018. Grothar:
I still miss Jack Paar
Was he a star? ;)
Quoting 1020. Gearsts:
The atlantic is looking very ugly for hurricane season with that setup.

Well, it is mid-February after all. Plenty of time for changes. It's a good thing it's not August though. :)
SOI continues to go down now for ten days in a row from +14.5 to +5.2.

Quoting 1008. opal92nwf:
Interesting. It's well within viewing distance of my location, so I went out and looked with what little light there was but didn't really see anything except maybe some cloudiness.

Very odd raincloud if it is one
Looks like another case of radar chaff. The military is messing with weather buffs again.
1025. Pallis
Quoting 1014. DonnieBwkGA:


Don't be modest. You're the grand poobah of the NSA ;)
That is funny Donnie. I fear no CO2.Dr. Vincent Gray on historical carbon dioxide levels | Watts Up With ...
wattsupwiththat.com/.../dr-vincent-gray-on-histor ic...‎
The graph is all over the place. This place that is.
Quoting 991. DonnieBwkGA:


Has Mexico petitioned for Ingrid to be retired? Canada got Juan retired after heavy lobbying.
I'm not sure...I wouldn't put it past them that they didn't petition.Mexico has a bad record when it comes to retiring storms unless they're really bad (Gilbert Wilma Isadore ect).
Quoting 1026. washingtonian115:
I'm not sure...I wouldn't put it past them that they didn't petition.Mexico has a bad record when it comes to retiring storms unless they're really bad (Gilbert Wilma Isadore ect).


I wonder where we could find that out--if the WMO had any requests for tropical cyclone name retirements for the past season.
1028. sar2401
Quoting Grothar:


I still miss Jack Paar

I do too. The last of the intellectual comedians.
Quoting 1027. DonnieBwkGA:


I wonder where we could find that out--if the WMO had any requests for tropical cyclone name retirements for the past season.
We'll have to wait until April to see any information about retiring storms.
They're doing radar chaff again across florida, mostly off keywest, and, oddly, a single smudge of it up in the panhandle where Opal92nwf is. It must be lots of fun, seeing as they do it so often.
1031. sar2401
Quoting opal92nwf:
Interesting. It's well within viewing distance of my location, so I went out and looked with what little light there was but didn't really see anything except maybe some cloudiness.

Very odd raincloud if it is one

Probably chaff. There's a NOTAM out for KDTS (Destin-FWB) about military operations through 2/19 and the area west of Interstate 10 is a military operations area on the sectional. The boys out of Eglin are probably doing some night practice.
1032. sar2401
Quoting DonnieBwkGA:


Don't be modest. You're the grand poobah of the NSA ;)

I'm sorry, Donnie, but that's a need-to-know basis, and you don't need to know. :-)
Quoting 1008. opal92nwf:
Interesting. It's well within viewing distance of my location, so I went out and looked with what little light there was but didn't really see anything except maybe some cloudiness.

Very odd raincloud if it is one

Weather radar out of Tallahassee has been showing smoke from controlled burns on and off this week. It's that time of year around here.
The government of Mexico has a very erratic retirement record--they retired 2002's Kenna, a storm that killed 4, but did not request retirement for 2010's Alex or Karl, among other storms. The chances of Ingrid being retired are probably low. Manuel might stand a chance given 169 deaths.
Eglin AFB encompasses most of Okaloosa county south of I-10, so looking at where it originated, I'd be really surprised if it was anything else.

*edit*
thanks for everyone answering that as I was typing :)

Quoting 1024. Forsaken:
Looks like another case of radar chaff. The military is messing with weather buffs again.

Quoting 1008. opal92nwf:
Interesting. It's well within viewing distance of my location, so I went out and looked with what little light there was but didn't really see anything except maybe some cloudiness.

Very odd raincloud if it is one
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE GUITO (12-20132014)
4:00 AM RET February 19 2014
======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Guito (994 hPa) located at 19.8S 40.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 11 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
70 NM radius from the center in the southwestern quadrant and up to 120 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
90 NM radius from the center, extending up to 150 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 160 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 190 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS 21.9S 39.9E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS 23.9S 39.5E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS 29.3S 38.9E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS 33.8S 43.2E - Depression Post-Tropicale

Additional Information
========================

2120z OSCAT and very partial 1907z ASCAT swaths shows with a rather good confidence that gale force winds exist over a significant portion of the low level circulation. System has therefore been named at 2100z by Madagascar Meteorological Services. Windfield pattern keeps characteristics of a monsoon depression, with strongest winds far from the low level center that is however not easy to locate precisely and the current location is based on an extrapolation of the estimated center of 2120z OSCAT one. Deep convective activity shows now a curved band pattern wrapping around the center at about 7 tens (KNES at T3.0 and PGTW at T2.5). Environmental conditions are favorable in the low layers (good inflow on the both sides of the system and very good ocean heat content). They are rather favorable in upper levels (weak to moderate vertical wind shear south of the upper level ridge, and good polar outflow).

System is expected to keep on tracking globally southwards within the next 48 hours under the steering influence of a mid level ridge located eastward. Along-track environmental conditions remains favorable until Thursday and system is therefore expected to intensify regularly within the next two days.

On and after Thursday late, the upper north-westerly flow is expected to strengthen aloft in relationship with an approaching subtropical westerly jet but as the system is tracking southeastwards by this lead time, it should weaken slowly at first. Then over marginal heat oceanic contents south of 30.0S and undergoing a strengthening northwesterly wind shear, system is expected to keep on weakening. From Saturday, the system in weakening phase could begin its extratropical transition.

Available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement about the track with however some discrepancies about the chronology.

Quoting 1023. Tropicsweatherpr:
SOI continues to go down now for ten days in a row from +14.5 to +5.2.

Stupid question, I know, but what does that indicate?
1038. txjac
Quoting 1037. Tornado6042008X:

Stupid question, I know, but what does that indicate?


Not a stupid question ...I often wonder when I see things posted. Thanks for asking
Quoting 1037. Tornado6042008X:

Stupid question, I know, but what does that indicate?


The SOI gives an indication of the development and intensity of El Niño or La Niña events in the Pacific Ocean. The SOI is calculated using the pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin. The following graphic has the typical fluctuations in SOI over a period of 11 years. Positive SOI values are shown in blue, with negative in orange. Sustained positive values are indicative of La Niña conditions, and sustained negative values indicative of El Niño conditions.

Quoting 1030. Forsaken:
They're doing radar chaff again across florida, mostly off keywest, and, oddly, a single smudge of it up in the panhandle where Opal92nwf is. It must be lots of fun, seeing as they do it so often.

It's also fun when they're testing bombs. Our sliding glass doors will visibly shake.
Quoting 1039. Tropicsweatherpr:


The SOI gives an indication of the development and intensity of El Niño or La Niña events in the Pacific Ocean. The SOI is calculated using the pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin. The following graphic has the typical fluctuations in SOI over a period of 11 years. Positive SOI values are shown in blue, with negative in orange. Sustained positive values are indicative of La Niña conditions, and sustained negative values indicative of El Niño conditions.



What exactly does that indicate in terms of potential weather events? Does it mean that there is a better/worse chance of tropical storms? Or does it indicate the potential for more immediate winter/wet weather?
M 6.5 - 170km NNE of Bathsheba, Barbados

PAGER - GREENShakeMap - IVDYFI? - VTsunami Warning Center
Time2014-02-18 01:27:13 UTC-08:00Location14.651°N 58.948°WDepth16.9km

when its on a plate boundary there is no range that can be predetermined.
(edited -- image failed to link)
I remember F-15s setting off car alarms in my neighborhood. That would drive me nuts nowadays, but as a little kid, it was AWESOME.

Quoting 1040. opal92nwf:

It's also fun when they're testing bombs. Our sliding glass doors will visibly shake.
Quoting 1040. opal92nwf:

It's also fun when they're testing bombs. Our sliding glass doors will visibly shake.


you must be near a bombing range .. was in TAC we would bomb Ft Polk, La ..
1046. Gearsts
1047. Dakster
Quoting 1040. opal92nwf:

It's also fun when they're testing bombs. Our sliding glass doors will visibly shake.


That's what I heard flying by. It sounded big, mean, and fast.
Heavy thunderstorms drench eastern inland

Torrential thunderstorms have continued to soak inland New South Wales and Queensland over the past 24 hours, as some places saw their heaviest rain in more than two decades.

A broad trough lying over the nation's eastern inland is continually being fed by very humid northeasterly winds sourced from the Coral Sea, leading to heavy thunderstorms over the region.

As one saying goes in the outback, when it rains, it rains hard.

Thargomindah in QLD's southwest recorded a remarkable fall of 123mm(4.84in) in the 24 hours to 9am, its biggest total since 1991 and more rain than the last ten months combined. At times, the rain was extremely heavy with 21mm(0.82in) falling in just 10 minutes around 8pm last night, even heavy for tropical standards.

Large totals were also recorded in QLD's northern inland with Georgetown collecting 123mm(4.84in)to 9am today, its heaviest rain since January 2009.

In NSW falls were not quite as heavy however useful totals were still recorded over the state's parched north. Coonabarabran picked up 45mm(1.77in) to 9am, its best rain in almost a year. Glen Innes recorded 30mm(1.18in), its heaviest fall since September.

The trough will gradually edge west over the coming days, but continue to generate widespread showers and thunderstorms over NSW's northern inland and the QLD interior. Between today and Friday will see the heaviest falls, with isolated totals of more than 100mm(3.93in) possible each day under thunderstorms.

From late in the weekend or very early next week, a high pressure ridge will take over causing drier and sunnier conditions. However, by then many places would have seen their best rain in a few years, providing significant relief to some drought affected areas.


© Weatherzone 2014

March is gonna come in like this.
Thargomindah downpour lifts spirits in parched Queensland outback

A south-west Queensland mayor says a massive storm last night in Thargomindah, south of Longreach, has given locals hope for more widespread rain across the drought-affected inland.

The weather bureau says 123 millimetres(4.84inches) has fallen in the town and there is the chance of more rain and storm activity through the central and southern interior today.

Thargomindah resident Guy Muller says the rain is a glorious change.

"It just came down and it was a big downpour and it kept raining heavily overnight," he said.

"Just ecstatic - very, very happy because it was getting very, very dry.

"I had been watching some stations trucking cattle out.

"I had seen 14 triple road trains go through Thargomindah in the last week."



Bulloo Mayor John Ferguson says he has not seen since a downpour like last night's in years.

"It was massive actually - I have never seen water like it for years and years," he said.

"I don't know - the whole town got flooded, it is still flooded this morning actually - like not in people's houses but all the gutters and everything are full and the water just can't get away.

"The gutters couldn't handle it on the roofs and in the streets - it was just unbelievable."

Meanwhile, Georgetown in the state's northern Gulf region has recorded 122mm(4.80in) since 9:00am (AEST) yesterday.

There has been another 25mm(0.98in) at Julia Creek, 30mm(1.18in) near Cloncurry and 54mm(2.12in) near Blackall.


© ABC 2014
Tree patiently waiting for Spring. That's how i see the picture.
1052. sar2401
Quoting WaterWitch11:
M 6.5 - 170km NNE of Bathsheba, Barbados

PAGER - GREENShakeMap - IVDYFI? - VTsunami Warning Center
Time2014-02-18 01:27:13 UTC-08:00Location14.651°N 58.948°WDepth16.9km

when its on a plate boundary there is no range that can be predetermined.

That was almost 24 hours ago.
Quoting 966. Haiyan2013:
Question of the day:
Where would you rather work?: Twc or nhc?
The Weather Channel,totally.
1054. pottery
Quoting sar2401:

That was almost 24 hours ago.

Was early this morning.
Was felt in Tobago as well. And the French islands, Guadeloupe.
Who is like ready for spring? My snow expected to come has come. Now time to move on to the next season since that's nature's plan.
1056. sar2401
Quoting decaturgarden:


What exactly does that indicate in terms of potential weather events? Does it mean that there is a better/worse chance of tropical storms? Or does it indicate the potential for more immediate winter/wet weather?

If we have an El Nino, it's thought that the southeast will have cooler and wetter seasons and the chances for Pacific tropical cyclones increase, while Atlantic tropical cyclones tend to decrease. The opposite is true during an La Nina, or cool phase. Right now we're in a neutral phase, so things should tend to average. All of this is under study and some of the linkages between the two phases and climate are still being debated.
1057. sar2401
Quoting pottery:

Was early this morning.
Was felt in Tobago as well. And the French islands, Guadeloupe.

Did you feel it, Pot? I can't find a shake map that covers the southern Caribbean.
1058. pottery
Quoting sar2401:

Did you feel it, Pot? I can't find a shake map that covers the southern Caribbean.

No, I didn't.
But a friend in Tobago did.

I was asleep anyway…… :)_:))
1059. GBguy88
I'm tempted to try and post a video here, but I don't want to violate any blog policies (...and maybe I can't figure out how to post it). I took a short clip of the windstorm we had here the other night in the foothills of the Rampart Range. Not since a hurricane have I heard the wind roar like that, and you can really hear it in the video, but the footage is dark. Even still, I thought maybe a handful of you would enjoy hearing the wind.
Beautiful early spring warmth here, had a high of 78 here today with more to come.
Quoting 1024. Forsaken:
Looks like another case of radar chaff. The military is messing with weather buffs again.



Real weather buffs aren't bothered as they quickly know the difference ;)
1063. sar2401
Quoting whitewabit:

Nice map but no shaking reports noted. It's hard to get the information from the Caribbean.
1064. Dakster
Quoting 1062. Jedkins01:



Real weather buffs aren't bothered as they quickly know the difference ;)


Amen...
1065. sar2401
Quoting GBguy88:
I'm tempted to try and post a video here, but I don't want to violate any blog policies (...and maybe I can't figure out how to post it). I took a short clip of the windstorm we had here the other night in the foothills of the Rampart Range. Not since a hurricane have I heard the wind roar like that, and you can really hear it in the video, but the footage is dark. Even still, I thought maybe a handful of you would enjoy hearing the wind.

There's no problem with posting a personal video. This site doesn't handle videos well so the easiest thing is to post it on YouTube and then embed the video here. Sounds like it would be interesting to listen to at least.
1066. sar2401
Quoting pottery:

No, I didn't.
But a friend in Tobago did.

I was asleep anyway%u2026%u2026 :)_:))

Hey, if it's big enough, you'll feel it anyway. I went through one in California that literally tossed me out of bed. When I moved to Alabama I though that at least I wouldn't have to worry about earthquakes any longer...then we had an earthquake. I also thought I wouldn't have to worry about snow, and it's snowed 6 out of the 8 years I've lived here. I'm almost certain I've seen my neighbors with those real big ropes doing something with them in their garages. :-)
Found this on Twitter. The red shade represents the total area covered by tornado warnings during the 2008-2012 period. The yellow shade represents the area covered by all tornadoes during the period.

Quoting 1067. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Found this on Twitter. The red shade represents the total area covered by tornado warnings during the 2008-2012 period. The yellow shade represents the area covered by all tornadoes during the period.




Which is good, because if tornado damage covered much larger areas of land we'd all be screwed, thousands would die and the nation would go bankrupt.
NAM HI RES 00Z HR 30
NAM HI RES 00Z HR 33
NAM HI RES 00Z HR 39
NAM HI RES 00Z HR 42
NAM HI RES 00Z HR 45
NAM HI RES 00Z HR 48
NAM HI RES 00Z HR 51
NAM HI RES 00Z HR 54
NAM HI RES 00Z HR 57
NAM HI RES 00Z HR 60 FINAL
1079. Dakster
KOTG - Got snow fall probs handy for the next couple of days?


Major winter storm threatening Thursday and Friday.

An Alberta clipper and a Texas low are expected to develop by Wednesday evening and then both will track towards the Great Lakes Thursday. Latest indications suggest both of these weather systems may merge into a major winter storm by Friday which may then track across the Great Lakes and Northern Ontario into Hudson Bay.

This may set the stage for quite a potent and large winter storm by Friday. Significant amounts of snow are possible for Northwestern Ontario which should remain in the cold Arctic air throughout the storm.

Over Northeastern Ontario, precipitation will probably start out as snow then may change through ice pellets and freezing rain to rain, with the greatest chance of a changeover to rain near the north shore of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay as milder air tries to move in for a short visit by Friday morning.

Much colder Arctic air will quickly return to all districts by Friday evening as very strong and gusty winds blast a cold front quickly through to the east of the province.

This winter storm has the potential for significant impact on travel beginning Thursday as snow from the Alberta clipper spreads into Northwestern Ontario. Such winter storms typically produce 15 to 30 cm of snow on their cold northwestern side. On the milder eastern side of the storm, a coating to 10 cm of snow plus 10 to 20 mm of rain along with ice pellets and some freezing rain often appear. Very strong winds in the wake of this winter storm centre may also be an issue to deal with by Friday. There is still some uncertainty as to the exact track of the storm centre. This will affect the location of the heaviest snow and how far north the freezing precipitation and rain reach into Northern Ontario.

Environment Canada is closely monitoring this developing situation and will update this statement accordingly.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended.




Significant weather expected late Thursday and Friday.

Two weather systems, one from Alberta and the other from Texas, are expected to develop in the coming days and track toward the Great Lakes, where they are forecast to merge and rapidly intensify on Thursday.

This intense system will bring rising temperatures to Southern Ontario, but also significant precipitation and strong winds.

Rain is expected to reach Southwestern Ontario Thursday afternoon, then spread eastward to the Golden Horseshoe by evening. As the precipitation spreads further north and eastward through the overnight hours, it will encounter colder air and likely begin as snowfall before changing to rain. Some freezing rain and ice pellets will also be possible as the snow transitions to rain.

While considerable uncertainty still exists regarding the details of Thursday and Friday's weather, current indicators suggest the following:

From Southwestern Ontario to the Golden Horseshoe and eastward along the Lake Ontario shore toward Kingston, rainfall amounts could be in the 30 to 40 mm range, with much of the precipitation falling Thursday night through Friday morning. Thunderstorms are also a possibility in these areas, and may result in locally higher rainfall amounts. Significant snow melt due to the rising temperatures will also be a concern.

For regions north of a line from about Kincardine eastward to Ottawa, snowfall ranging anywhere between a trace to 10 cm Thursday night may be followed by 10 to 20 mm of rain. A few hours of freezing rain and ice pellets are also possible, but is most likely to occur in Eastern Ontario, especially near the Ottawa Valley.

Strong winds will also be a concern in some areas, especially regions along the Great Lakes shores. Southerly winds in the 30 to 60 km/h range will veer to southwesterly on Friday and increase, with gusts 70 or 80 km/h possible.

Meteorologists continue to monitor the development of these weather systems. Weather watches or warnings may be required.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.


1081. Dakster
Do you have one for the NE USA?
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



*** China Exceeds U.S. on Energy-Efficiency Spending for First Time

Obama Sets Timetable for New Truck Fuel Efficiency Rules

Seeking the Strategy Behind Kerry's Climate Speech in Indonesia

*** Farmland butterflies bounce back

!!! Master monkey's brain controls sedated 'avatar' Creepy!

*** Tree roots 'are natural thermostat'


* When a black hole shreds a star, a bright flare tells the story

*** Rife with hype, exoplanet study needs patience and refinement

*** Increase in Arctic cyclones is linked to climate change

!!! Artificial leaf jumps developmental hurdle Weird.

*** World's most powerful terahertz laser chip

*** Frequent school moves can increase the risk of psychotic symptoms in early adolescence Discuss.

!!! Einstein's conversion from a belief in a static to an expanding universe

Infected Tasmanian devils reveal how cancer cells evolve in response to humans

*** Los Angeles' vulnerability to future sea level rise projected

* Harvesting light, the single-molecule way: Molecular mechanism of light harvesting may illuminate path forward to future solar cells

*** Conserving potato agrobiodiversity: Top-down and bottom-up approach needed


Mount Hood magma called nearly solid stuff

*** Toxins leaking from 2nd pipe at NC coal ash dump

Alaska Editorials

Wild weather puts climate back on global agenda before 2015 deadline

North Carolina editorial roundup

Georgia editorial roundup

Climate change forcing Vermont farmers to think ahead


!!! Global warming: Ice loss makes Arctic itself a bigger climate changer (with video)

Tom Steyer planning $100 million climate change campaign push

*** German Village Resists Plans to Strip It Away for the Coal Underneath


*** Devious and Fierce, but Call It Honey: PBS's 'Nature' Highlights Honey Badgers


North Carolina: Duke Energy Ordered to Stop Waste

*** Color My World: Cats and Dogs May See in Ultraviolet Hmmmm. Surprised this wasn't determined a long time ago.

Space or Bust: The Science of Kate Upton's Zero-G Lift Will I directly link the image from this story? No, I've pushed things enough for one night ;)

************************************************* ************************************************** *******

The following articles are courtesy of etxwx:

*** Hydraulic Fracturing & Water Stress: Water Demand by the Numbers

Visualization: Water for Fracking in Ten Texas Counties

Denton Group Seeks Local Fracking Ban

Exxon-backed system to curb gas leaks at plants

Duke earnings rise 58 percent in 4th quarter So they can afford to beef up protection against waste spills.

West Coast apocalypse: How "earthquake storms" could devastate California I think this could be hype.
Quoting 1032. sar2401:

I'm sorry, Donnie, but that's a need-to-know basis, and you don't need to know. :-)


fnord
Quoting 1040. opal92nwf:

It's also fun when they're testing bombs. Our sliding glass doors will visibly shake.


Living in the flight path of Fallon NAS gets exciting too. Few months back, one of my cleaning clients had a glass shower door shatter from the scream of a low-flying jet. And when the unfortunate pilot crashed while landing during a windstorm a year or two ago, it shook the house like whoever was showering at the time took a hard fall and kicked the shower door out.

(They do cheerfully reimburse the neighbors for similar damage, you need to show an insurance report I think. Mostly they're good neighbors, and it's fun to watch the jets f@rt flame during night activity.)
I love these lists. They are well done and I find that they increase my knowledge and I appreciate them greatly. Just want you to know that there are people that appreciate the work you put into this. Btw, you are very good lookin.

Quoting 1082. BaltimoreBrian:
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



*** China Exceeds U.S. on Energy-Efficiency Spending for First Time

Obama Sets Timetable for New Truck Fuel Efficiency Rules

Seeking the Strategy Behind Kerry's Climate Speech in Indonesia

*** Farmland butterflies bounce back

!!! Master monkey's brain controls sedated 'avatar' Creepy!

*** Tree roots 'are natural thermostat'


* When a black hole shreds a star, a bright flare tells the story

*** Rife with hype, exoplanet study needs patience and refinement

*** Increase in Arctic cyclones is linked to climate change

!!! Artificial leaf jumps developmental hurdle Weird.

*** World's most powerful terahertz laser chip

*** Frequent school moves can increase the risk of psychotic symptoms in early adolescence Discuss.

!!! Einstein's conversion from a belief in a static to an expanding universe

Infected Tasmanian devils reveal how cancer cells evolve in response to humans

*** Los Angeles' vulnerability to future sea level rise projected

* Harvesting light, the single-molecule way: Molecular mechanism of light harvesting may illuminate path forward to future solar cells

*** Conserving potato agrobiodiversity: Top-down and bottom-up approach needed


Mount Hood magma called nearly solid stuff

*** Toxins leaking from 2nd pipe at NC coal ash dump

Alaska Editorials

Wild weather puts climate back on global agenda before 2015 deadline

North Carolina editorial roundup

Georgia editorial roundup

Climate change forcing Vermont farmers to think ahead


!!! Global warming: Ice loss makes Arctic itself a bigger climate changer (with video)

Tom Steyer planning $100 million climate change campaign push

*** German Village Resists Plans to Strip It Away for the Coal Underneath


*** Devious and Fierce, but Call It Honey: PBS's 'Nature' Highlights Honey Badgers


North Carolina: Duke Energy Ordered to Stop Waste

*** Color My World: Cats and Dogs May See in Ultraviolet Hmmmm. Surprised this wasn't determined a long time ago.

Space or Bust: The Science of Kate Upton's Zero-G Lift Will I directly link the image from this story? No, I've pushed things enough for one night ;)

************************************************* ************************************************** *******

The following articles are courtesy of etxwx:

*** Hydraulic Fracturing & Water Stress: Water Demand by the Numbers

Visualization: Water for Fracking in Ten Texas Counties

Denton Group Seeks Local Fracking Ban

Exxon-backed system to curb gas leaks at plants

Duke earnings rise 58 percent in 4th quarter So they can afford to beef up protection against waste spills.

West Coast apocalypse: How "earthquake storms" could devastate California I think this could be hype.
Hey keeper, looks like a lot of rain for us. I'm in Cleveland so def looking forward to that mild air.
Thanks Krycek :) etxwx also helps!
1088. sar2401
Quoting Jedkins01:



Which is good, because if tornado damage covered much larger areas of land we'd all be screwed, thousands would die and the nation would go bankrupt.

Well, it's good from that point of view but no so good from a public awareness view. The map shows that the NWS is issuing way too many tornado warnings. Either they just enjoy issuing warnings (which I doubt) or we simply don't have the skill to only issue warnings when there's actually a tornado. The other possibility is "CYA", with the idea it's better to over warn than miss one. I saw this very clearly in Alabama after out deadly tornado outbreak in 2011. During severe weather season in 2012, Birmingham had the highest false alarm rate in the nation. I'm a Skywarn amateur radio net controller and we are activated whenever there's a severe storm warning in our coverage area. We had times when we were on the radio for 12-14 hours straight because we've get a new warning just when the previous warning would expire or get cancelled. All of us are volunteers who have a life outside of Skywarn, and it got to the point where we just couldn't scare up any more net controllers because we had to go to work or, in my case, since I'm a retired bum, I just got worn out. Some observations didn't get to the NWS because we ran out of people to man the radios, computers, and phones to relay reports.

Now, expand this fatigue to the public. It got to the point where severe thunderstorms were almost routine and tornado warnings didn't set off more alertness. The tornado sirens were going off so frequently that they just became background noise. The NWS needs to find a way to reduce these false alarms consistent with public safety.

All that being said, the Twitter map is clearly incorrect for the period 2008-2012 since there should be a lot of yellow in Alabama with the 50 tornadoes we had in 24 hours in 2011. I suspect the overall intent of the map is correct but the details are surely not.
1089. sar2401
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Thanks Krycek :) etxwx also helps!

I rarely get a chance to read them all, Brian, but they are great late night reading fodder, so I appreciate your efforts as well. Now, that "good lookin" part... :-)
1090. sar2401
Quoting nonblanche:


Living in the flight path of Fallon NAS gets exciting too. Few months back, one of my cleaning clients had a glass shower door shatter from the scream of a low-flying jet. And when the unfortunate pilot crashed while landing during a windstorm a year or two ago, it shook the house like whoever was showering at the time took a hard fall and kicked the shower door out.

(They do cheerfully reimburse the neighbors for similar damage, you need to show an insurance report I think. Mostly they're good neighbors, and it's fun to watch the jets f@rt flame during night activity.)

I imagine it got a lot more exciting when the Navy moved the Top Gun school up there in 1996. The guys who get to go to that school are some of the best (and also craziest) pilots in the Navy. There have been two crashes at Fallon in the past three years. One involved a contractor from Airborne Tactical Advantage Company that flying an Israeli built Kfir fighter. The ATAC pilots are hired to fly the "dissimilar" aircraft like the Kfir to give Navy pilots experience in fighting non-US aircraft. That was the one that crashed right on the runway in 2012. The pilot did not make it in that crash. Another crash occurred in 2011 involving an F/A-18 but that one occurred further out in the desert and the two crew members were able to eject safely before the crash. Unfortunately, pilots flying high performance aircraft at the limits of their design will sometimes have a bad outcome. :-(
If you've seen this image circulating anywhere...



...just ignore it. It's nothing but hyperbole from a very ignorant weather enthusiast.
6:57 AM UTC 19FEB2014

REAL TIME AURORA BOREALIS PREDICTION:

Here is the prediction of storm intensity for the next few minutes (the higher the Kp number, the larger the Aurora):


The Space Environment Center's Neural Net Program estimates that . . .

in 10 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 5.67 -- at STORM LEVEL!
in 27 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 5.67 -- at STORM LEVEL!
in 42 minutes, the Geomagnetic Activity level (Kp number) will be 6.67 -- at STORM LEVEL! (It is On!!)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE GUITO (12-20132014)
10:00 AM RET February 19 2014
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Guito (989 hPa) located at 20.0S 39.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 7 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
90 NM radius from the center, extending up to 140 NM in the south

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS 22.5S 39.8E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS 25.0S 39.4E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS 30.8S 39.9E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS 35.5S 45.1E - Depression Post-Tropicale

Additional Information
========================
For the last 6 hours, Guito has clearly intensified. The convection is wrapping on a 0.8 wrap and the tops of clouds have cooled. 0302z microwave pictures show an eye completely closed on 37ghz and a rmw that has narrowed. Dvorak analysis is in good agreement with PGTW and KNES (T3.5). The low level center is still difficult to locate. The intensity of the system is close to the severe tropical storm stage.

Environmental conditions are favorable in the low layers (good inflow on the both sides of the system and very good ocean heat content). They are rather favorable in upper levels (weak to moderate vertical wind shear south of the upper level ridge and good polar outflow).

The system is expected to keep on tracking southward within the next 48 hours under the steering influence of a mid level ridge located in the east. Along track environmental conditions remains favorable until Thursday during the day and the system is therefore expected to intensify regularly. It is not excluded that Guito may reach the tropical cyclone stage. From Thursday late, the upper northwesterly flow is expected to strengthen aloft in relationship with an approaching subtropical westerly jet but as the system is tracking southeastward by this lead time, it should weaken rather slowly at first.

Friday, when heat oceanic contents will become marginal south of 30.0S and undergoing the strengthening northwesterly wind shear, the system is expected to continue on weakening and take a post-tropical structure. From Saturday, the system in weakening phase could begin its extra-tropical transition.

Available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement about the forecast track with however some discrepancies about the chronology.
Quoting 1067. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Found this on Twitter. The red shade represents the total area covered by tornado warnings during the 2008-2012 period. The yellow shade represents the area covered by all tornadoes during the period.




How accurate is the yellow area? I'm questioning this because this is a 4 year period and if you think about it, add 40 years which basically x10 the yellow area and you have quite a impressive spot. Even though it's still quite small compared to the whole US, it kinda surprises me how much land Tornados have gone through with how small they are comparatively.
1095. LargoFl
Good Morning!!....................
1096. LargoFl
1097. Guysgal
Scary prediction from Haverlock Link
1098. Dakster
Good Morning Everyone. Happy Hump Day. (please, no camel pictures...)

Nice and breezy out at the moment.
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 62 degrees and supposed to be a high of 77 later. We're under a severe fog advisory. Tomorrow we have the possibility of severe storms. This morning the kids have a fire drill, perhaps we should be having a bad weather drill.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Fruity Baked Oatmeal, Spicy Scrambled Egg Sandwiches, apple cinnamon waffles, Corned Beef Hash with Fried Eggs, Glazed Cinnamon Rolls with Pecan Swirls, Omelet Soufflé, Oversize Breakfast Biscuits with sausage patties and strawberry jelly on the side, sweet and spicy bacon, Apple-Pecan Baked Oatmeal, Cajun Breakfast Casserole, cheesy grits and shrimp, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Special treat of flavored cappuccinos, cinnamon, Irish cream, white chocolate caramel or French vanilla . Enjoy!
Quoting 1091. TropicalAnalystwx13:
If you've seen this image circulating anywhere...



...just ignore it. It's nothing but hyperbole from a very ignorant weather enthusiast.


Now he has added a timeline to his graph.


The sites meteorolgist listed at the bottom of the page.
TheWeatherSpace.com CEO and Senior Meteorologist Kevin Martin has 18 years professional experience in forecasting the weather, fluent in winter, severe, tropical, long range, and other types of forecasting, including the Western USA.


SPC forecast
1101. barbamz
Short (morning) hello from Germany. Funny looking low "Violetta II" over the western Mediterranean right now, pushing warm and moist air from the south to the north, including some SAL. Reports say that Munich got brown rain this night, soiling precious German cars, lol.


Saved image.




SAL (Saharan Air Layer).

Last week way too warm in most parts of Europe (map in Celsius):


Have a nice day everyone!
Quoting 1088. sar2401:

Well, it's good from that point of view but no so good from a public awareness view. The map shows that the NWS is issuing way too many tornado warnings. Either they just enjoy issuing warnings (which I doubt) or we simply don't have the skill to only issue warnings when there's actually a tornado. The other possibility is "CYA", with the idea it's better to over warn than miss one. I saw this very clearly in Alabama after out deadly tornado outbreak in 2011. During severe weather season in 2012, Birmingham had the highest false alarm rate in the nation. I'm a Skywarn amateur radio net controller and we are activated whenever there's a severe storm warning in our coverage area. We had times when we were on the radio for 12-14 hours straight because we've get a new warning just when the previous warning would expire or get cancelled. All of us are volunteers who have a life outside of Skywarn, and it got to the point where we just couldn't scare up any more net controllers because we had to go to work or, in my case, since I'm a retired bum, I just got worn out. Some observations didn't get to the NWS because we ran out of people to man the radios, computers, and phones to relay reports.

Now, expand this fatigue to the public. It got to the point where severe thunderstorms were almost routine and tornado warnings didn't set off more alertness. The tornado sirens were going off so frequently that they just became background noise. The NWS needs to find a way to reduce these false alarms consistent with public safety.

All that being said, the Twitter map is clearly incorrect for the period 2008-2012 since there should be a lot of yellow in Alabama with the 50 tornadoes we had in 24 hours in 2011. I suspect the overall intent of the map is correct but the details are surely not.


That's an assumption not backed by any evidence. The map posted is designed to make you see it that way. Let's take a step back and really think about it.

If there is a confirmed spotted tornado, funnel, or doppler indicated tornado NWS will issue a warning. The average forward motion of a tornado is roughly 30 mph, ranging from 0 - 70, the length of time a tornado may be onthe ground averages roughly 15 minutes, but can range from 0 min to 2 hours. If you do the math of averages alone, it's obvious the NWS would have to issue huge swaths of tornado warning to accommodate the inherent features of a tornadic storm.

Edit: I would be willing to bet that the disconnect between tornado warnings and people following them may have more to do with mistrust of governmental agencies in the parts of the country mainly effected by tornadoes. (Just my opinion, I haven't really looked into it)
Tornado Warning at 6AM? Eww. Hope nothing happened down in TN as a bad wake up call
Anybody think this next storm reminds you of Gemini.?
Quoting 1063. sar2401:

Nice map but no shaking reports noted. It's hard to get the information from the Caribbean.
Well, to be fair, you did ask for the shake map--which was provided--and not the DYFI. So here you are. And as you can see, it's not that hard to get info from the area--not even for a moderate offshore earthquake:

quake

1106. LargoFl
7-day Tampa Bay area...........
1107. LargoFl
WWW.GLOBALINCIDENTMAP.COM

Type: EarthQuake
8 hours ago
Magnitude: 2.9
DateTime: 2014-02-18 22:09:20
Region: Puerto Rico region
Depth: 37
Source: USGS Feed
Morning all... another beautiful day in Nassau, and likely to continue so all day... cool temps are still out there, but by the weekend our local met is suggesting we'll be having afternoon "pop-up" showers due to daytime heating.... and it's not even March yet... lol ... only got down to 68 F last night, so the cold is moderating, but I'm hoping it'll stay cooler until the weekend. I didn't expect this cold snap to last as long, but it's been fun while it lasted...

Good morning bahahurricane,I was wondering what is it like in a hurricane? I live in Nebraska so I was just wondering.
Good morning I know it's the Dry Season but the pattern resembles that of a summer-like regime starting Friday. Also as some said this event will be just showers or even light showers as some suggested.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 AM EST WED FEB 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...WARM/DRY WITH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

FRIDAY...LOW LVL SW FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...INCREASING MOISTURE
LVLS AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH CAPE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG IN THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD SPELL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. H5 TEMPS AROUND -11 DEG C AND 35-40
KNOTS OF WSW FLOW AT H5 MAY HELP ORGANIZE A FEW STRONGER STORMS THAT
COULD CONTAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
SHORT RANGE
MODELS FOCUSING ON TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION...A PREFRONTAL LINE
MOVING INTO NRN SECTIONS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS SRN SECTIONS IN THE WARM SECTOR THAT
SHOULD MOVE NE-ENE TOWARD THE EAST COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL
INCREASE POPS TO AROUND 40 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FL.


SATURDAY-SUNDAY...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IN STORE AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND ADDITIONAL MID LVL IMPULSES
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND. INCREASING MID LAYER
FLOW TO 50 KNOTS AT H5...AFTERNOON CAPE TO 1500-1800 J/KG AND COLD
TEMPS AT H5 FROM -10 TO -12 DEGS C KEEP THE CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING
STORMS IN THE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. ECMWF HAS WETTER SOLUTION AND WILL NOT GO QUITE
AS HIGH AS ECMWF WITH RAIN CHANCES...BUT HAVE ADDED THUNDER WITH GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR SOME AFTERNOON LIGHTNING
STORMS BOTH DAYS.
00Z GFS GUID TEMPS HAVE WARMED AND WILL FORECAST
LOWER TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS...WITH THE CAVEAT THAT CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS COULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPS A BIT ACROSS NRN SECTIONS.

MON-WED...GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE SE
ATLC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES AS
ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE ERN CONUS TROUGH. ECMWF HAS A AB
BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING DOWN THE PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK (LOWERING
RAIN CHANCES) WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SE ATLC COAST AND
PULLING A FRONT TOWARD THE AREA WED MORNING. GFS MOVES A SFC LOW
PRESSURE AREA UP THE SE ATLC COAST TUESDAY AND BRINGS A FRONT
THROUGH E CENTRAL FL WED AFTERNOON. BOTH SOLUTIONS KEEP SHOWER
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WITH GFS INDICATING DRYING BEHIND THE NEXT
FRONT BY WED NIGHT. AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP LOW END SHOWER CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK AND MAY NEED TO ADD
THUNDER IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WITH LATER FORECASTS. HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S MON-TUE...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WED.

1111. Dakster
Barbamz - Looking like Northern Europe is going to have to invest in A/C if that warming trend keeps up.
1112. Dakster
Quoting 1109. Haiyan2013:
Good morning bahahurricane,I was wondering what is it like in a hurricane? I live in Nebraska so I was just wondering.


Like a really, really big Tornado. Only the winds are not typically as strong. But the damage is more widespread. And the wind and rain can last for hours on end.
Looks like Winter went poof in FL and now comes Summer. I guess our 3 weeks of Winter was good while it lasted.

I'm wondering why TWC is not naming the winter storm.
All of this wet weather coming to FL maybe the result of a pretty intense MJO for (Winter standards) moving into our basin.



1116. Dakster
Quoting 1113. StormTrackerScott:
Looks like Winter went poof in FL and now comes Summer. I guess our 3 weeks of Winter was good while it lasted.



I am jealous, you got three weeks. I got three days.
Quoting 1114. Haiyan2013:
I'm wondering why TWC is not naming the winter storm.


Does it really matter if it has a name or not?
1118. StormWx
Does it get any nicer?



Quoting 1116. Dakster:


I am jealous, you got three weeks. I got three days.


LOL! I would say we had a solid 3 weeks in Orlando of temps near 70 with some days in the 50's for highs.

Quoting 1117. StormTrackerScott:


Does it really matter if it has a name or not?
I know some of you don't like winter storm naming but I do so yeah.
Quoting 1067. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Found this on Twitter. The red shade represents the total area covered by tornado warnings during the 2008-2012 period. The yellow shade represents the area covered by all tornadoes during the period.


A graphic very similar to that was shown at the TESSA Conference a couple of weeks back.
Quoting 1114. Haiyan2013:
I'm wondering why TWC is not naming the winter storm.



They will name it when they are ready to do so
Looks like a wall of higher sea surface anomalies spreading east across the Pacific right now.

1124. StormWx
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Looks like Winter went poof in FL and now comes Summer. I guess our 3 weeks of Winter was good while it lasted.



Yes average temps for Orlando this time of year is 75/53 so you are about 8 degrees above average this week. Enjoy it while it lasts. This weekend into next week it will be back to normal winter/spring weather for FL, however the mid-section of the US will see an intense cooldown going into March.



Quoting 1123. StormTrackerScott:
Looks like a wall of higher sea surface anomalies spreading east across the Pacific right now.



The warm pool at subsurface continues to move eastward.

1126. ricderr
Yes average temps for Orlando this time of year is 75/53 so you are about 8 degrees above average this week. Enjoy it while it lasts. This weekend into next week it will be back to normal winter/spring weather for FL, however the mid-section of the US will see an intense cooldown going into March.



looks like they will be below average end of next week.....
Quoting 1108. BahaHurican:
Morning all... another beautiful day in Nassau, and likely to continue so all day... cool temps are still out there, but by the weekend our local met is suggesting we'll be having afternoon "pop-up" showers due to daytime heating.... and it's not even March yet... lol ... only got down to 68 F last night, so the cold is moderating, but I'm hoping it'll stay cooler until the weekend. I didn't expect this cold snap to last as long, but it's been fun while it lasted...



Morning Baha…

We FINALLY got some rain…

YAY!
anyone in grt lakes area and the ne make sure any storm drains near your home or business get clear off today to help drain away the water tomorrow and Friday
1129. hydrus




Day 2 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 am CST Wednesday Feb 19 2014


Valid 201200z - 211200z


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the eastern half
of the U.S. From the MS valley eastward to the Appalachians...and the
Great Lakes southward to the Gulf Coast...


...
A strong middle-level trough initially moving into the plains states is
forecast to shift eastward across the plains through the afternoon...and
then across the MS/Ohio valleys/upper Great Lakes overnight as it
begins to take on a negative tilt.


At the surface...a deepening low is forecast to move north-northeastward from the
southeastern Kansas vicinity to Lake Superior by the end of the period...while a
strong/trailing cold front sweeps quickly eastward -- crossing the MS
valley through the afternoon and then across the Appalachians
through the end of the period. This front will focus a line of
strong/severe storms from afternoon into the overnight hours.


..OH/middle and lower MS valleys across Tennessee into the deep south...
Similar to the forecast over the past couple of days...a fairly
widespread severe weather episode appears likely day 2 -- primarily
Thursday afternoon and evening and into the early morning hours of
Friday -- as a strong cold front and associated/powerful upper storm
system move across the central and into the eastern Continental U.S..


Strong southerly low-level winds advecting moisture northward will support
modest destabilization /generally around 500 j/kg mixed-layer cape/
along the front...leading to eventual initiation/expansion of a
frontal line of thunderstorms. By late afternoon...a nearly
solid/fast-moving line of convection should stretch from the southern
upper Great Lakes vicinity south-southwestward into the central/western Gulf coastal
region -- accompanied by a risk for fairly widespread damaging wind
gusts. In addition...given winds expected to increase
rapidly/significantly above the surface...a few embedded tornadoes
will be possible within the line -- particularly within a zone in
the middle Ohio/Tennessee Valley vicinity. Limited instability should limit
severe hail risk however...particularly north of the Gulf Coast states.


Overnight...storms should remain well organized/severe as they move
quickly eastward toward/into the Appalachians -- after which some
disruption of overall storm intensity/severe risk may occur.


.Goss.. 02/19/2014



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1142. Patrap
Quoting 1448. JohnLonergan:
How we ended up paying farmers to flood our homes
This government let the farming lobby rip up the rulebook on soil protection – and now we are suffering the consequences

It has the force of a parable. Along the road from High Ham to Burrowbridge, which skirts Lake Paterson (formerly known as the Somerset Levels), you can see field after field of harvested maize. In some places the crop lines run straight down the hill and into the water. When it rains, the water and soil flash off into the lake. Seldom are cause and effect so visible.

That's what I saw on Tuesday. On Friday, I travelled to the source of the Thames. Within 300 metres of the stone that marked it were ploughed fields, overhanging the catchment, left bare through the winter and compacted by heavy machinery. Muddy water sluiced down the roads. A few score miles downstream it will reappear in people's living rooms. You can see the same thing happening across the Thames watershed: 184 miles of idiocy, perfectly calibrated to cause disaster.

Two realities, perennially denied or ignored by members of this government, now seep under their doors. In September the environment secretary, Owen Paterson, assured us that climate change "is something we can adapt to over time and we are very good as a race at adapting". If two months of severe weather almost sends the country into meltdown, who knows what four degrees of global warming will do?

The second issue, once it trickles into national consciousness, is just as politically potent: the government's bonfire of regulations.

Read more in The Guardian ...
NAM HIRES SIM RAD 06Z RUN HR60 FINAL

Quoting 1105. Neapolitan:
Well, to be fair, you did ask for the shake map--which was provided--and not the DYFI. So here you are. And as you can see, it's not that hard to get info from the area--not even for a moderate offshore earthquake:

quake

Oh wow right near Barbados.
ATL

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF WITH A BANG AS MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE
ON A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM FRIDAY MORNING... ACROSS THE ATLANTA METRO AREA
BETWEEN 3 AM AND 6 AM... AND THEN ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA BETWEEN
6 AM AND NOON ON FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW A HIGH SHEAR... LOW CAPE
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT... WITH A DEEP/STRONG UPPER
TROUGH DRIVING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM QUICKLY EASTWARD. THE RESULTING
FRONTAL FORCING INTO 300-600 J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE AND 35-45 KNOT
0-1KM BULK SHEAR SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS FROM BOWING ECHOES EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SQUALL LINE THAT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER... A FEW EMBEDDED TORNADOES LOOK TO ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE RAPIDLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT... COURTEOUS OF A STRONG 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO PLACE NORTH AND PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL GEORGIA IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA... WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE
THREAT LIKELY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND 9 AM FRIDAY
MORNING. ALL INTEREST ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA ARE
STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SYSTEM AS WE GO
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
Jackson, MS

A SOLID WARM
SECTOR WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTN WITH SOME POINTS
AT FORECAST RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH OTHERS AT LEAST WITHIN
1-2F DEGREES REACH OF THEM AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S.
MODIFIED SOUNDING WITH THESE READINGS SUGGEST HIGHER INSTABILITY
VALUES THEN CURRENT MODELED VALUES.
THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A STRONG CONVERGENT FRONT THROUGH THE REGION INTO THIS
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AS HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR. THIS WILL ACT TO ERODE THE
CAP BUT ENOUGH CIN LOOKS PRESENT TO KEEP ANY ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE
LINE AT BAY AND ALL CONVECTION WILL BE ORIENTED ALONG A SW/NE TILTED
LINE. THIS ANGLE OF TILT ALONG WITH THE 0-3 KM SHEAR /40-45KT/
VECTOR ANGLE MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR BOWING SEGMENTS TO FORM AND
THUS TAKE AWAY SUPPORT FOR MESO-VORTICY DEVELOPMENT IN THE LINE.

OVERALL...THIS COULD LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL WITHIN THE LINE.
HOWEVER, WITH WIND FIELDS AT STRONG AS THEY ARE...DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH SOME SEVERE HAIL ALSO
POSSIBLE.
the return of lightning :)

Huntsville AL

BUFR SOUNDINGS AND SHEAR PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE HIGH PROB
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...TO GO ALONG WITH FREQUENT CG LIGHTNING
AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
Memphis:
BOWING SEGMENTS AND SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN ADVANCE
OF THE COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER INITIATION.

THIS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO THE WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S RESULTING IN
LOW LCLS...WINDS SLIGHTLY BACKED AT THE SURFACE...BULK SHEAR ON
THE ORDER OF 70 KTS...SRH 0-1 KM VALUES IN EXCESS OF 300
M2/S2...AND LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM WILL BE A PRIME ENVIRONMENT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THIS REGION. SBCAPE VALUES ARE MARGINAL WITH
READINGS FROM 400 TO 800 J/KG...BUT ALL OTHER PARAMETERS ARE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER. DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS INITIALLY DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT INCREASING AS THE
STORM MODE BECOMES MORE LINEAR LATER IN THE EVENING.
THURSDAY FORECAST MAP

72 HR PRECIP TOTALS

1151. hydrus
Moisture return is limited. This would have been a major event if return flow was plentiful.
1152. Patrap
...shoulda,woulda,coulda'
Quoting 1118. StormWx:
Does it get any nicer?



StormWx.....Absolutely beautiful....Spent the last 3 days in Mt. Dora and went to the Rennigers Extravaganza...Couldn't have asked for a more wonderful weekend....Love it.
Quoting 1151. hydrus:
Moisture return is limited. This would have been a major event if return flow was plentiful.


big enough as it is we don't need anything major

just want some snow melt that's all
1155. Patrap
Ann Arbor finally above freezing after weeks below.

Ann Arbor Weather at a Glance
Weather Station
Marra Drive, Ann Arbor
Elevation925 ft

Now
Overcast
Temperature

34.9 °F

Feels Like 35 °F
Special weather statement for
City of Toronto continued

Major storm expected late Thursday and Friday.

Two developing weather systems, one from Alberta and the other from Texas, will be tracking towards the Great Lakes, where they are forecast to merge and rapidly intensify Thursday. This intense system will bring rising temperatures to Southern Ontario, but also significant precipitation and strong winds.

Rain is expected to reach Southwestern Ontario near midday Thursday, then spread eastward to the Golden Horseshoe Thursday afternoon. As the precipitation spreads further north and eastward through the evening and overnight hours, it will encounter colder air and likely begin as snowfall before changing to rain. Freezing rain and ice pellets will also be likely as the snow transitions to rain.

While considerable uncertainty still exists regarding the details of Thursday and Friday's weather, current indicators suggest the following:

From Southwestern Ontario to the Golden Horseshoe and eastward along the Lake Ontario shore toward Kingston, rainfall amounts could be in the 30 to 40 mm range, with much of the precipitation falling Thursday night through Friday morning. Thunderstorms are also a possibility in these areas, and may result in locally higher rainfall amounts. Significant snow melt due to the rising temperatures will also be a concern.

For regions north of a line from about Kincardine eastward to Ottawa, snowfall ranging anywhere from a trace to 10 cm Thursday night may be followed by 10 to 20 mm of rain. A brief period of freezing rain and ice pellets is likely during the transition from snow to rain, however, freezing rain could persist for several hours in Eastern Ontario, especially over the Ottawa Valley.

Strong winds will also be a concern in some areas, particularly for regions along the Great Lakes shores. Southerly winds in the 30 to 60 km/h range will veer to southwesterly Friday and increase, with gusts 70 or 80 km/h possible.

Meteorologists continue to monitor the development of these weather systems. Weather watches or warnings will likely be required.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.


1157. ricderr
City of Toronto continued

Major storm expected late Thursday and Friday.





wow keep...is this the first one of the year for you?...LOL
1158. Patrap
Quoting 1157. ricderr:
City of Toronto continued

Major storm expected late Thursday and Friday.





wow keep...is this the first one of the year for you?...LOL



Hows the Mayor doing ?, I hope he hasn't "cracked" over the Weather as of late keep.

; )
1159. hydrus
Quoting 1154. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


big enough as it is we don't need anything major

just want some snow melt that's all
Next couple of model runs should show what we are going to deal with.
1160. ricderr
I hope he hasn't "cracked" over the Weather as of late keep.


crack killed apple jack
he just jumped in and never jumped back
he was just to blind to see that
death lives in the rock house
1161. LargoFl
1162. LargoFl
mucape is kinda High around here fri-sat............
Quoting 1158. Patrap:



Hows the Mayor doing ?, I hope he hasn't "cracked" over the Weather as of late keep.

; )
I don't follow that circus pat
1164. Patrap


GOP Lawmaker Claims We 'Could Use' Twice As Much Carbon Dioxide In The Atmosphere

The Huffington Post | by Mollie Reilly


A Utah lawmaker has proposed a bill that would limit the state's ability to regulate greenhouse gas emissions, claiming that the atmosphere "could use twice as much carbon dioxide" as it has now.

State Rep. Jerry Anderson (R-Price) introduced H.B. 229, which would change the definition of an air contaminant to exclude "natural components of the atmosphere," such as carbon dioxide, from being defined as contaminants. As the Salt Lake Tribune notes, the legislation would also restrict the state from establishing standards for acceptable atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases below 500 parts per million.

"The carbon dioxide level back in the days of the dinosaurs was considered to be about 600 parts per million. And they seemed to thrive quite well ... The vegetation back in those times was lush," Anderson said during a Tuesday committee hearing on the bill. "I'm thinking we could double the carbon dioxide rate and not have any adverse effects that I can tell. In Nebraska, they did a study and said basically that in our dry climates out here, we would be very much benefited by having more carbon dioxide than we have now."

According to Utah Public Radio, Anderson said he doesn't see carbon dioxide levels as a factor in climate change.

“The climate, always, is changing and the weather is never the same from one day to the next," Anderson said. "So, carbon dioxide has been a real culprit but I don't see it that way. We actually could use twice as much carbon dioxide as we’ve got.”

He continued, "I hate to think how cold it would have been a couple of months ago if we didn't have some global warming, it’s been a good thing to keep us from freezing to death."

Anderson's remarks stand at odds with the findings of the vast majority of climate scientists. A 2013 survey found that 97 percent of climate science papers agree that global warming is due to human activity, including carbon dioxide emissions. Those scientists have also found a number of harmful effects that would come as a result of higher carbon dioxide emissions, including worse heat waves, loss of sea ice and rapidly rising sea levels.

Matt Pacenza of the Healthy Environmental Alliance of Utah described the bill to KCPW last month as a stunt.

“We read this, plain and simple, as a bid from someone who, you know, probably thinks that climate change is a myth and is opposed to any efforts to be energy-efficient and move away from dirty coal and embrace mass transit and do all the things that so many folks think are a good idea," he said.

Members of the state's House Natural Resources, Agriculture, and Environment Committee voted to hold the bill.

Quoting 1157. ricderr:
City of Toronto continued

Major storm expected late Thursday and Friday.





wow keep...is this the first one of the year for you?...LOL


first thunder if it happens
1166. Torito
Quoting 1137. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
NAM HIRES SIM RAD 06Z RUN HR45



That squall attached to that system is picture perfect.. Might be some really rough weather coming from that.
Quoting 1113. StormTrackerScott:
Looks like Winter went poof in FL and now comes Summer. I guess our 3 weeks of Winter was good while it lasted.


Although it is interesting to note that the Panhandle got winter by tenfold compared to central and southern FL.

While we were covered in ice and in the 20's in the daytime, most of peninsular FL was in the 70's in late January.
What a beautiful day, gorgeous weather, bills are all paid, grandkids are back in school, and 1.5 Qt. of chocolate almond ice cream in the freezer....Nothing better.
1169. Patrap


2014 Mardi Gras Parade Schedule

Click on the Mardi Gras Krewes below for further information and interactive routes for each parade.


FRIDAY | Feb 21

Route

French Quarter
Krewe of Cork 3:00pm

Uptown
Krewe of Oshun 6:00pm

Krewe of Cleopatra 6:30pm

Metairie
Krewe of Excalibur 7:00pm

Mandeville
Krewe of Eve 7:00pm
I heard thunder about a hour ago.Weird.
1171. Torito
Quoting 1170. washingtonian115:
I heard thunder about a hour ago.Weird.


It's up here in Manchester now, about to cross into PA..... Just heard some about 10 minutes ago. First thunderstorm of the year, eh?
Quoting 1171. Torito:


It's up here in Manchester now, about to cross into PA..... Just heard some about 10 minutes ago. First thunderstorm of the year, eh?
Yeah in February..Perhaps a sign of a interesting spring to come.
1173. Torito
Quoting 1172. washingtonian115:
Yeah in February..Perhaps a sign of a interesting spring to come.


Probably a rather dangerous one.... Might have to weather-proof our house again. It got pretty damaged through all this snow and ice.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 1164. Patrap:


GOP Lawmaker Claims We 'Could Use' Twice As Much Carbon Dioxide In The Atmosphere

The Huffington Post | by Mollie Reilly


A Utah lawmaker has proposed a bill that would limit the state's ability to regulate greenhouse gas emissions, claiming that the atmosphere "could use twice as much carbon dioxide" as it has now.

State Rep. Jerry Anderson (R-Price) introduced H.B. 229, which would change the definition of an air contaminant to exclude "natural components of the atmosphere," such as carbon dioxide, from being defined as contaminants. ...


This goes far beyond just CO2. Many things that are harmful to humans and other species could be defined as "natural components of the atmosphere." In fact, this would pretty much change the fundamental definition of pollution or contamination, which has more to do with effect and concentration than whether or not the material can be found naturally.
1176. sar2401
Quoting Naga5000:


That's an assumption not backed by any evidence. The map posted is designed to make you see it that way. Let's take a step back and really think about it.

If there is a confirmed spotted tornado, funnel, or doppler indicated tornado NWS will issue a warning. The average forward motion of a tornado is roughly 30 mph, ranging from 0 - 70, the length of time a tornado may be onthe ground averages roughly 15 minutes, but can range from 0 min to 2 hours. If you do the math of averages alone, it's obvious the NWS would have to issue huge swaths of tornado warning to accommodate the inherent features of a tornadic storm.

Edit: I would be willing to bet that the disconnect between tornado warnings and people following them may have more to do with mistrust of governmental agencies in the parts of the country mainly effected by tornadoes. (Just my opinion, I haven't really looked into it)

It appears to me (without any real knowledge of how that map was produced) that the yellow may be the total area affected by tornados compared to the total area affected by tornado warnings. I don't know how that was calculated but it seems like a non-trivial task to somehow come up with the total area of all tornadoes in a five year period. I'd have to see some more details of how this was done before I put credence in that map.

As to the opinion in your last sentence, I won't dignify that with a response.
Quoting 1090. sar2401:

I imagine it got a lot more exciting when the Navy moved the Top Gun school up there in 1996. The guys who get to go to that school are some of the best (and also craziest) pilots in the Navy. There have been two crashes at Fallon in the past three years. One involved a contractor from Airborne Tactical Advantage Company that flying an Israeli built Kfir fighter. The ATAC pilots are hired to fly the "dissimilar" aircraft like the Kfir to give Navy pilots experience in fighting non-US aircraft. That was the one that crashed right on the runway in 2012. The pilot did not make it in that crash. Another crash occurred in 2011 involving an F/A-18 but that one occurred further out in the desert and the two crew members were able to eject safely before the crash. Unfortunately, pilots flying high performance aircraft at the limits of their design will sometimes have a bad outcome. :-(


It was the pilot flying the Israeli jet that I was thinking about. Windy morning, worse than a couple days ago (when Reno recorded a 100mph gust.) That was a really sad incident - a combination of bad weather, a very hard gust, and directions from the ground that all came together.

And yes - we trust the people in the air and on the ground to be safe as they can.

(A good friend took his son to the Reno Air Show, left to come home about a half hour before THAT crash a couple years ago. He was 8 at the time, and we didn't tell him what happened until a year later, when he was older enough to handle the news.)

Sometimes I wonder how the flyers and crew can manage in the windstorms we get around here, but I also understand their need to be ready for all kinds of conditions. And yep - we're getting a crazy windfront from Pyramid Lake blowing through right now, and a jet just flew over our farm.