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Snowstorm Kills 21, Drops 2' of Snow; January U.S. Temperatures Near Average

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:47 PM GMT on February 14, 2014

The latest blow from the Eastern United States' endless winter of 2013 - 2014 is winding down, as Winter Storm Pax scoots northeastward into Canada. Pax was the biggest Nor'easter of the winter so far, and dumped more than two feet of snow in the higher elevations of Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland, and New York. Snowfall rates as high as 6" per hour were observed in an intense band that accompanied the storm over portions of New Jersey and New York. As of 9 am EST Friday, over a foot of snow (12.5") had fallen in New York City's Central Park, 12.3" in Baltimore, 11.9" at Newark, 9.8" at Philadelphia, and 6" in Washington D.C. at Reagan Airport. The storm dumped 5.8" on Knoxville, Tennessee--the city's first 5"+ snowfall since Jan. 17, 1996. Columbia SC recorded snow for the third day in a row on Thursday, marking the first time since January 1940 that had occurred.

From the 10 am EST Friday NWS storm report, here are the top snowfall totals by state from Pax:

Virginia: 28.5", Pilot
West Virginia: 27.5", Mount Storm
Maryland: 26", Glyndon
New York: 25.8", Jewett
Pennsylvania: 22.5", Glencoe
North Carolina: 21", Boones Hill
Vermont: 20", Mt. Holly
New Jersey: 19.2", Highland Lakes
Massachusetts: 16", Ludlow
Delaware: 14.4", Greenville
Maine: 14", Farmington
Connecticut: 14", Fairfield
Kentucky: 14", Jenkins
New Hamshire: 11.6", Washington
Tennessee: 11.3", Jonesborough
Alabama: 10", Cullman, Hunstville
Georgia: 10", Batesville
South Carolina: 10", Clover
Rhode Island: 9.6", West Glocester


Figure 1. Can you find the car? Image taken on Thursday, February 13, 2014 from Frostburg, Maryland, where 21.5" of snow fell. Image credit: wunderphotographer ftaccino1.

Twenty-one Deaths, 400,000 Without Power
At least 21 deaths are being blamed on the storm, including three people who died of heart attacks while shoveling heavy snow in Maryland on Thursday. As of 9 am EST on Friday, approximately 400,000 customers were without power, almost entirely in the states that received the worst freezing rain: Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina. At the ice storm's peak on Thursday, about 700,000 customers were without power.


Figure 2. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for January 2014. A persistent trough of low pressure over the East brought a top-ten coldest January on record to eight states, but an equally strong ridge of high pressure over the West Coast brought a top-ten warmest January on record to California, Arizona, and Nevada. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

A slightly cooler than average January for the U.S.
January of 2014 saw the most severe cold in twenty years over much of the Eastern half of the U.S., but no states had their coldest January on record, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in their latest State of the Climate report. A persistent trough of low pressure over the East brought a top-ten coldest January on record to eight states, but an equally strong ridge of high pressure over the West Coast brought a top-ten warmest January on record to California, Arizona, and Nevada. As a result, the January temperature over the entire contiguous U.S. was only slightly cooler than average, ranking as the 53rd coolest January in the past 120 years. According to the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, January snow cover extent across the contiguous U.S. was the 16th smallest in the 48-year period of record. Above-average snow cover was observed across the Northern Plains, Midwest, and Northeast where numerous winter storms brought heavy snowfall during the month, but below-average snow cover was observed for most of the West and Southern Rockies.

According to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, January extremes were below average, with 12% of the nation experiencing top-10% extreme conditions, compared to an average of 18%.


Figure 3. Drought conditions in California in January 2014 were the most severe ever observed in January, dating back to 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Dry in the west
January was a very dry month, ranking as the fifth driest January on record for the contiguous U.S., with eight states having a top-ten driest January. New Mexico had its driest January on record, with just 0.03" of precipitation, averaged over the entire state. The 0.02" of precipitation for Arizona ranked as their 2nd driest January on record. Drought conditions in California in January 2014 were the most severe ever observed in January, dating back to 1895. California had its driest 3rd driest January. It was the state's driest December-January on record, with 0.94 inch of precipitation, 7.35 inches below average. The previous record dry December-January occurred in 1975/76, when the two-month precipitation total was 1.32 inches. The December-February period is typically the wettest three months for California, and is an important time for the state's water resources. Winter precipitation is vital to replenish reservoirs and builds mountain snowpack that melts during the spring and summer. Last week's "Pineapple Express" storm over Northern California helped reduce the area of California in extreme drought from 67% to 61%, but the drought situation remains dire.

Warm again in Sochi
Friday was the warmest day yet of the Winter Olympics in sunny Sochi, Russia, where the temperature rose to 64° at 12:30 pm local time. We can expect continued issues with excessive warmth as high temperatures rise into the low 60s again on Saturday, before cooling off to more seasonable highs in the low 50s on Sunday. Temperatures at the mountain venues are typically 10 - 20° cooler than in Sochi, but have still been well above freezing during the daytime hours. According to an article in the USA Today, more than 100 winter Olympians have signed a petition urging world leaders to fight climate change. "The once-consistent winters that I saw as a young kid are no more, especially near my home in Vermont," U.S. cross country skier Andrew Newell, 30, says in a statement seeking support. At least 105 Olympians from 10 countries have signed on, including 85 Americans. They're asking countries to reduce heat-trapping carbon dioxide emissions, embrace "clean energy" and prepare for a global agreement at the United Nations' climate convention in Paris next year.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters
Winter Storm Pax
Winter Storm Pax
Screven County Georgia was hit hard by Winter Storm Pax. An estimated 80% of households lost power. We missed three days of school due to the power outages and trees across country roads.
What a Mess
What a Mess
Snow changing over to sleet and rain.
For the Birds!
For the Birds!
Yup, we are getting slammed once again, but there are still berries left on the shrubs for the birds Their Valentine's treat!
Frozen Wonderland
Frozen Wonderland
Taken at the height of the ice storm in Summerville, SC on 02/12/14 - beautiful, but dangerous weather!

Winter Weather Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

A Building Sheds its Skin


This building has apparently lost its Ivy League status. There’s no word on where the building is, or whether the “vertical garden” was removed deliberately or just fell by its own weight. I’m also not sure if this vine is some kind of ivy or euonymus or creeping fig or ficus. But it’s a certainly an a-peeling picture! The downside is all the birds and bugs and spiders that are now looking for a new home.
Quoting 998. Grothar:


Have you told him that the comparative endings are also declined? lol

We will keep the plurals to ourselves for awhile, too :)
Hey, I'm just starting to get the pronouns and verbs and plural nouns.... don't start with adjectives yet... and did I mention I can count only to [I think] six?

Like I said, much, much more practice needed... lol
1003. LargoFl
It seems that most of the winter storms have come in outbreaks. Like the Boreas through Ion outbreak. And the Janus through ? outbreak. Going on right now.
1005. wxmod
Quoting 996. guygee:
With all the talk of a potential El Nino and the PDO going positive it is worth pointing out this change as well, from Arctic Sea Ice News, January 2014 summary:
...Sea ice extent remains below average in the Barents Sea, the Sea of Okhotsk, and the Bering Sea. While recent winters have seen more extensive sea ice in the Bering Sea, this is the first January since 2005 for which below average conditions have been observed there....


Ice extent doesn't tell the whole story. Here's a MODIS satellite photo from yesterday north of Alaska.

1006. Grothar
Quoting 1002. BahaHurican:
Hey, I'm just starting to get the pronouns and verbs and plural nouns.... don't start with adjectives yet... and did I mention I can count only to [I think] six?

Like I said, much, much more practice needed... lol


I'm proud of you, Baha. Trust me, it isn't easy. Just remember word of advice. Always, always, learn the gender of the noun, not just the noun itself.
58 for a high today...feels sooooo warm already.
Heck yesterday's 48 felt wonderful..
68F by wednesday, then at or near 70F for some time...
All you people up north who dont like the cold, it's nice and toasty down here.

Quoting 1001. GeorgiaStormz:
A Building Sheds its Skin


This building has apparently lost its Ivy League status. There%u2019s no word on where the building is, or whether the %u201Cvertical garden%u201D was removed deliberately or just fell by its own weight. I%u2019m also not sure if this vine is some kind of ivy or euonymus or creeping fig or ficus. But it%u2019s a certainly an a-peeling picture! The downside is all the birds and bugs and spiders that are now looking for a new home.


Oh my word! You showed a nekked building! Don't you know there are kids on here???
1009. help4u
We all need to move to Kansas where we do not have to believe big government lies. Still people who believe in freedom and not robot think. Enjoy gods day he made it for your enjoyment.
FWIW, there is a five percent chance of an X-Flare or higher within the next 48 hours that could be Earth facing.
Quoting 1006. Grothar:


I'm proud of you, Baha. Trust me, it isn't easy. Just remember word of advice. Always, always, learn the gender of the noun, not just the noun itself.
Thanks for the support and the advice. I will take advice, and go back to my little lexical notebook to reorganize along those lines. I prolly should have done it that way to begin with, considering that I have studied Spanish, but I am only beginning to grasp the greater extent to which a knowledge of the gender is useful in German...
Quoting 928. wxgeek723:


I actually live in Camden County, but there's no sense in explaining the whole North/South thing so I just wrote it from an outsider's perspective. Though I don't think the smell gets bad until you hit Trenton.


Think you're right about Trenton, I was exaggerating a bit. And I thought people were exaggerating about the smells of New Jersey, what with growing up in Atlantic City, visiting relatives summertime in Brighton Beach - until the Secaucus Fidocon in the early 1990's. So THAT'S what a paper mill smells like.

The difference between North and South Jersey isn't just weather patterns (to make this at least a tiny bit on topic.) Funny - I never thought about how different where I was from the rest of the US, didn't everyone live where they could walk to a beach, or bike to the largest single virgin forest in the US? Some things I definitely do NOT miss - but sitting on a dock in February with 35mph salty freezing gusts whistling in my ears - or drinking Boone's Farm Apple with friends on the banks of the brackish tidal creeks in Port Republic, late at night...

and now I'm getting deep into my cups... of morning coffee. Never thought I'd end up on a ranch in Barsoom, dead sea bottoms and all. Before I vacate the meat wagon I'm riding, who knows? A friend in the bush up in the Yukon has an open invitation extended, might be I'll spend some time there someday.
1013. Patrap
1014. wxmod
Hawaii storm winding up.

1015. hydrus
Hmmm.... Is winter normally this stormy in Hawaii? I thought they did the summer thing the way we do...
Quoting 1012. nonblanche:


Think you're right about Trenton, I was exaggerating a bit. And I thought people were exaggerating about the smells of New Jersey, what with growing up in Atlantic City, visiting relatives summertime in Brighton Beach - until the Secaucus Fidocon in the early 1990's. So THAT'S what a paper mill smells like.

The difference between North and South Jersey isn't just weather patterns (to make this at least a tiny bit on topic.) Funny - I never thought about how different where I was from the rest of the US, didn't everyone live where they could walk to a beach, or bike to the largest single virgin forest in the US? Some things I definitely do NOT miss - but sitting on a dock in February with 35mph salty freezing gusts whistling in my ears - or drinking Boone's Farm Apple with friends on the banks of the brackish tidal creeks in Port Republic, late at night...

and now I'm getting deep into my cups... of morning coffee. Never thought I'd end up on a ranch in Barsoom, dead sea bottoms and all. Before I vacate the meat wagon I'm riding, who knows? A friend in the bush up in the Yukon has an open invitation extended, might be I'll spend some time there someday.
Wonder how many got the John Carter reference... it's not just geography....
1018. wxmod
Quoting 1015. hydrus:



Not good for California and food prices.
1019. Patrap
A Happy Birthday to Jim Cantore.



1020. LargoFl
Quoting 1015. hydrus:
Kinda scary looking huh hydrus..
1021. LargoFl
Quoting 1007. GeorgiaStormz:
58 for a high today...feels sooooo warm already.
Heck yesterday's 48 felt wonderful..
68F by wednesday, then at or near 70F for some time...
All you people up north who dont like the cold, it's nice and toasty down here.

yeah we'll be 80 here in florida real soon this week..
1022. LargoFl
1023. sar2401
Quoting CybrTeddy:
FWIW, there is a five percent chance of an X-Flare or higher within the next 48 hours that could be Earth facing.

Those are always interesting for us ham radio operators since a big flare has amazing effects down in the HF bands. Best contact I ever made was the day after a big flare when I was able to talk to Japan on 5 watts. I usually use 500 watts. Of course, a really big flare can also do things like knock out the power grid so we'll hope we don't see that.
1024. wxmod
Quoting 1016. BahaHurican:
Hmmm.... Is winter normally this stormy in Hawaii?


I don't think so.

This storm seems to be moving north into cooler water, so it probably won't be a problem, but...
weather patterns seem to set up early in the year and stay that way through the summer, so... this standing wave could be roughly in the same location and spawn hurricanes all summer. Imagine if it moved a little to the east!
1025. Grothar
I haven't been to Nevada [yet] but I've traveled through some of the wide open spaces of other states out west, and I have a deep appreciation for the sheer size. I was just thinking last night about how one can fly from coast to coast in 4-5 hours, and wondering how long it would take to walk from, say Jersey to Oregon. Even the early settlers had horses, oxen etc. and were able to make quite a few miles a day. All our "instant" modern conveniences make it much harder for us to understand the distance.

Plus the maps we see generally tend to distort the size of states in favor of the northern states, IIRC... something to do with a view that makes the Northern Hemisphere look bigger than it is...


Walking would take long enough that you want to pick and choose carefully what time of year to set out. I've driven across country, between friends offering a stop and the end-point, plus driving with a 12 year old (NT) girl and a 9 year old autie Radio Disney addicted girl, I chose the following:

Jamestown, VA. (friends who took us to old town JT)
(town in western VA I can't remember, near Polyface Farm. His chicken is as good as the reputation it carries.)
Morehead, KY (Bob Sloan, the Appalachian folklorist)
Another city in Kentucky, Motel 6
Germantown, TN (cousin Rachel)
Plano, TX (friend Dart took us to the Grassy Knoll)
San Antonio, TX (we had a driving contest with points for spotted cowboy hats. The first hotel I picked had a retired cowboy convention. I walked in to the lobby ahead of the girls and said "Cowboy Hats I Win.")
Albuquerque, NM. Driving through NM was bittersweet, I lost a cousin to a heroin overdose there years before, and it's STILL the most beautiful state in the lower 48.
Between NM and Arizona, we pulled off to check out the Ice Cave/Banderas Crater. The white pines there are actually black-barked from the iron content in the soil, and so iron-rich that they are frequent targets for lightning strikes. They look like bonsai, but full-sized not in miniature.
Driving through AZ, seeing thunderstorms and counting the rainbows in the distance.
Southern Nevada, creepy from all the abandoned farmhouses probably dating back to the Dust Bowl.
Vegas to stay with my brother,
and finally on to OC and my mom.

We left in November, and overall - aside from heavy rains that broke my wipers in western VA, the weather was as good as it could be.

So, I suggest, if you're going to walk across country? Fall, after the tornado and hurricane season is done, and track Radio Disney affiliates. :) And figure out water supplies once you get to Texas. There's a LOT of flatness with nothing in between.
Quoting 1017. BahaHurican:
Wonder how many got the John Carter reference... it's not just geography....


I know. The long-term prospects for drought make living here an interesting thing to watch, for sure. Don't think we're going to have egg wars, though. :)

The dried milk plant a couple miles away is supposed to open some time 2014 I think. I'm hoping it's not going to be a failed venture.
1028. Patrap
WATCH: Bill Nye Tells Marsha Blackburn to Be a "Leader" and Stop Denying Climate Change

—By Chris Mooney| Sun Feb. 16, 2014 9:05 AM GMT

Bill Nye is getting good at this.

Fresh off a mega-debate that embarrassed Young Earth creationists and led to none other than Pat Robertson denouncing their views, Nye appeared on Meet the Press today to debate Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), a global warming "skeptic."

On the air, Blackburn, who is vice-chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, denied that there is a scientific consensus on climate change and argued that "you don't make good laws, sustainable laws, when you're making them on hypotheses, or theories, or unproven sciences." (There is indeed such a scientific consensus; at one moment, host David Gregory had to correct Blackburn on this point.)

But Nye rebutted her with some simple science lessons that made a lot of sense—noting that going from 320 to 400 parts per million of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, something Blackburn called "very slight," is actually a very big change in percentage terms (Nye said 30 percent; it is actually a 25 percent increase). At the same time, Nye also hammered home a compelling message centered on patriotism. "As a guy who grew up in the US," he said, "I want the US to lead the world in this....The more we mess around with this denial, the less we're going to get done."

The key gotcha moment in the debate came when Nye called out Blackburn for failing to lead on the climate issue. "You are our leader," he said to Blackburn. "We need you to change things, not deny what's happening."

"Neither he nor I are a climate scientist," Blackburn noted during the debate. But as Nye observed, only one of them is a politician, whose job is to use the best information that we have at our disposal to make the world work better.
Quoting 1026. nonblanche:


Walking would take long enough that you want to pick and choose carefully what time of year to set out. I've driven across country, between friends offering a stop and the end-point, plus driving with a 12 year old (NT) girl and a 9 year old autie Radio Disney addicted girl, I chose the following:

Jamestown, VA. (friends who took us to old town JT)
(town in western VA I can't remember, near Polyface Farm. His chicken is as good as the reputation it carries.)
Morehead, KY (Bob Sloan, the Appalachian folklorist)
Another city in Kentucky, Motel 6
Germantown, TN (cousin Rachel)
Plano, TX (friend Dart took us to the Grassy Knoll)
San Antonio, TX (we had a driving contest with points for spotted cowboy hats. The first hotel I picked had a retired cowboy convention. I walked in to the lobby ahead of the girls and said "Cowboy Hats I Win.")
Albuquerque, NM. Driving through NM was bittersweet, I lost a cousin to a heroin overdose there years before, and it's STILL the most beautiful state in the lower 48.
Between NM and Arizona, we pulled off to check out the Ice Cave/Banderas Crater. The white pines there are actually black-barked from the iron content in the soil, and so iron-rich that they are frequent targets for lightning strikes. They look like bonsai, but full-sized not in miniature.
Driving through AZ, seeing thunderstorms and counting the rainbows in the distance.
Southern Nevada, creepy from all the abandoned farmhouses probably dating back to the Dust Bowl.
Vegas to stay with my brother,
and finally on to OC and my mom.

We left in November, and overall - aside from heavy rains that broke my wipers in western VA, the weather was as good as it could be.

So, I suggest, if you're going to walk across country? Fall, after the tornado and hurricane season is done, and track Radio Disney affiliates. :) And figure out water supplies once you get to Texas. There's a LOT of flatness with nothing in between.
Yowsa... that's quite a trip... sounds interesting, though. I'm a "trainie" [not trainee, lol] and have come out to the Rockies by train four times in the last 10 or so years. I agree with the NM assessment, even though I haven't had the pleasure - yet - of getting into the SW corner of the state. Course I might think different after seeing the west coast, but I doubt it. First train trip I took was on the train from FL to El Paso, and that segment from Orange to El Paso took longer than the entire rest of the trip... lol... Walking would prolly take 3-4 times the driving, and I suppose fall would be best seeing it's likely the driest time of year for most of the country....

An interesting concept.
Hmmm.... if you averaged 30 miles a day, you'd still take 3 months to walk from Asbury Park to Crescent City.

EDIT: Minimum 3 months...
Lol


What's the difference between bird flu and swine flu?
If you have bird flu, you need tweetment. If you have swine flu, you need oink-ment.
Quoting 1016. BahaHurican:
Hmmm.... Is winter normally this stormy in Hawaii? I thought they did the summer thing the way we do...
Winter is Hawaii's very pleasant "rainy season." Just add a slicker to normal garb. Rarely, long pants. Summers, humid and hot along the west coasts, cooler at higher elevations and on windward sides.
1033. sar2401
Quoting BahaHurican:
Thanks for the support and the advice. I will take advice, and go back to my little lexical notebook to reorganize along those lines. I prolly should have done it that way to begin with, considering that I have studied Spanish, but I am only beginning to grasp the greater extent to which a knowledge of the gender is useful in German...

Reminds me of my four horrific years studying Latin. Everything had a gender unless it was neuter. A table is female, a story is male, and the ocean is neuter. It made no sense at all so I just had to memorize everything. I asked the teacher why the Romans thought this was a good idea and he told me to shut up and get back to memorizing. :-)
Quoting 1033. sar2401:

Reminds me of my four horrific years studying Latin. Everything had a gender unless it was neuter. A table is female, a story is male, and the ocean is neuter. It made no sense at all so I just had to memorize everything. I asked the teacher why the Romans thought this was a good idea and he told me to shut up and get back to memorizing. :-)
One thing I do know is that European languages, generally speaking, have been moving away from inflected endings based on gender. I suppose it's a reflection of social trends away from gender-specific roles.
Information from AOL charts, definite rainy season, but rainfall varies greatly based on location.


1036. sar2401
Quoting BahaHurican:
Yowsa... that's quite a trip... sounds interesting, though. I'm a "trainie" [not trainee, lol] and have come out to the Rockies by train four times in the last 10 or so years. I agree with the NM assessment, even though I haven't had the pleasure - yet - of getting into the SW corner of the state. Course I might think different after seeing the west coast, but I doubt it. First train trip I took was on the train from FL to El Paso, and that segment from Orange to El Paso took longer than the entire rest of the trip... lol... Walking would prolly take 3-4 times the driving, and I suppose fall would be best seeing it's likely the driest time of year for most of the country....

An interesting concept.

I'm glad to see a young person is still into trains. I've been a railfan my whole life. I took the Super Chief from LA to Chicago back when it was still the Super Chief and the food was actually good. Rode the California Zephyr, 20th Century Limited, and the Sunset Limited. All gone now, so we're stuck with Amtrak. Still, I'd take a train going anywhere just to be on a train.
We're having an absolutely perfect day down here in S.W. Fl.
Live shot of Fort Myers Beach Fl.

1038. LargoFl
ready for some more snow DC?...............HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
130 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014

MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-042 -050-051-501>504-
WVZ050>053-055-501>506-171330-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-
ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-
ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORA NGE-CULPEPER-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY -
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-
130 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH MINIMAL
ACCUMULATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ACCUMULATING SNOW...MIXED WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$
1039. LargoFl
Oh boy..next weekend.......................
1040. LargoFl
well so far it looks like rain as the temps will be ok..
1041. LargoFl
far out in time.............
We now have winter storm Rex and I said it 1st
Quoting 1036. sar2401:

I'm glad to see a young person is still into trains. I've been a railfan my whole life. I took the Super Chief from LA to Chicago back when it was still the Super Chief and the food was actually good. Rode the California Zephyr, 20th Century Limited, and the Sunset Limited. All gone now, so we're stuck with Amtrak. Still, I'd take a train going anywhere just to be on a train.
I missed all those great trains, so I guess I'm stuck with being an Amtrak fan.... lol.... I'm glad they're holding on to those intra-coastal trains. I've done the Sunset Limited, the Zephyr [most recently out to Salt Lake], the SW Chief and even the Empire Builder. I still want to do the Canada train across the northern plains and Rockies, but even in Amtrak's limited version rail travel gives one an experience not obtainable in other ways, especially out west where distances are so vast and some locations are otherwise inaccessible.
1044. Dakster
Quoting 1021. LargoFl:
yeah we'll be 80 here in florida real soon this week..


What do you mean going to be 80... I have been seeing 80s for quite sometime now. Every once in a while we don't...

BTW, anyone catch how clean the bricks are behind the ivy falling of the building? Makes me wonder if someone didn't purposely remove the vines with something.
Quoting 1036. sar2401:

I'm glad to see a young person is still into trains. I've been a railfan my whole life. I took the Super Chief from LA to Chicago back when it was still the Super Chief and the food was actually good. Rode the California Zephyr, 20th Century Limited, and the Sunset Limited. All gone now, so we're stuck with Amtrak. Still, I'd take a train going anywhere just to be on a train.
Totally... I once took a train to Savannah, turned around and came back less than six hours later, just so I could have the pleasure of the ride.... lol... been to Maine that way one Sunday afternoon... and a few years ago when the Zephyr was running over UP's Wyoming tracks due to track work in CO, I booked an extra round trip from Den to SLC just so I could have that not oft repeated experience...

IMO it's a great way to see the US without driving, plus I find the ride itself both relaxing and energizing...
Quoting 1044. Dakster:


What do you mean going to be 80... I have been seeing 80s for quite sometime now. Every once in a while we don't...

BTW, anyone catch how clean the bricks are behind the ivy falling of the building? Makes me wonder if someone didn't purposely remove the vines with something.
That did indeed catch my eye.
1047. Dakster
Quoting 1045. BahaHurican:
Totally... I once took a train to Savannah, turned around and came back less than six hours later, just so I could have the pleasure of the ride.... lol... been to Maine that way one Sunday afternoon... and a few years ago when the Zephyr was running over UP's Wyoming tracks due to track work in CO, I booked an extra round trip from Den to SLC just so I could have that not oft repeated experience...

IMO it's a great way to see the US without driving, plus I find the ride itself both relaxing and energizing...


I love riding a train.

Too bad alot of times it can be expensive.
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 2:00 PM EST Sunday 16 February 2014
Condition:Partly Cloudy
Pressure:30.1 inches
Tendency:falling
Visibility:10 miles
Temperature:16.5°F
Dewpoint:7.3°F
Humidity:67%
Wind:N 15 mph
Wind Chill: 1
Quoting 1047. Dakster:


I love riding a train.

Too bad alot of times it can be expensive.
Well, I usually stick with coach, and buy tickets as early as possible. Additionally Amtrak has some "excursion" type deals if you are going to make an extended trip that I can sometimes take advantage of. However, it seems these days that travel is costly no matter which way you do it... :o/
Quoting 1042. Tazmanian:
We now have winter storm Rex and I saw it 1st

you saw nothing 1st
1052. wxmod
The arctic sea ice anomaly recorded today is more negative than the sea ice anomaly recorded at any time before 2006.


Its about to start snowing... again.... Mother Nature can melt this snow herself. I am tired of shoveling :p
Winter Storm Rex has been named.
Quoting 1053. Doppler22:
Its about to start snowing... again.... Mother Nature can melt this snow herself. I am tired of shoveling :p
Yep Warm Up is coming and hey Daylight Saving Time is not far off from now.
Quoting 1052. wxmod:
The arctic sea ice anomaly recorded today is more negative than the sea ice anomaly recorded at any time before 2006.




Quoting 1025. Grothar:



Eastern PA should be included too. With the rain, all the snow melting and the possible ice jams on creeks and streams and even the Susquehanna it will be very possible for flooding.
Quoting 1053. Doppler22:
Its about to start snowing... again.... Mother Nature can melt this snow herself. I am tired of shoveling :p


lot's of fun no


We are supposed to have 76 today. Currently it is 68.9 here in Jurupa Valley.

Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 10:53 AM PST on February 16, 2014
Scattered Clouds
70 °F/21.11 °C
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 27%
Dew Point: 34 °F/1.11 °C
Wind: 4 mph Variable
Pressure: 30.01 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 4 out of 16
Pollen: 8.60 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 20000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 817 ft
Do not want.



The warm-up coming this week will be significant (2m temperature departures 20-25F above average over a large area) but brief. Back to cold to end the month and start March.
Quoting 1060. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Do not want.



The warm-up coming this week will be significant (2m temperature departures 20-25F above average over a large area) but brief. Back to cold to end the month and start March.

A little taste of Spring and then Mother Nature is like haha you fools and she returns us to Winter. Fun.
Quoting 1054. Climate175:
Winter Storm Rex has been named.



Your late I said it 1st
1064. nigel20
Good afternoon guys! Not showing up on the surface chart, but i think that a weak surface trough is to our east.





Winter Storm Rex named.
Quoting 1060. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Do not want.



The warm-up coming this week will be significant (2m temperature departures 20-25F above average over a large area) but brief. Back to cold to end the month and start March.


gfs does not seem as strong with the warm air push as previous models depicted

Quoting 1044. Dakster:


What do you mean going to be 80... I have been seeing 80s for quite sometime now. Every once in a while we don't...

BTW, anyone catch how clean the bricks are behind the ivy falling of the building? Makes me wonder if someone didn't purposely remove the vines with something.


Largo is stuck in a cold spot. He's got all the cool water around or near his location. He averages at least 5-10 degrees colder than just down the highway here in Fort Myers.
Note the cold wedge up there by Largo.
Quoting 1065. Haiyan2013:
Winter Storm Rex named.



Your late I said it 1st
by hr 144 back to colder temps as winter holds on just a little longer

Quoting 1063. Tazmanian:



Your late I said it 1st
I don't think i was trying to race anybody, this is not the Kentucky Derby. Haiyan Either
Quoting 1070. Climate175:
I don't think i was trying to race anybody, this is not the Kentucky Derby.
taz is just playing C175
Tomorrow the 80s are back for Southern Fl.
1073. nigel20
I have a question. Can the warm subsurface water/s in the central pacific, make it to the eastern pacific without inducing an El Nino?



Or would the walker circulation (conventional), pull the warmer SSTs to the surface?
1074. wxmod
Kerry calls for more action on climate

John Kerry said in a speech that military gas consumption would be cut in half, NSA computers would be turned off, government vehicles would be all electric, government garbage production (tools,food,etc) would be cut by 90 percent, paper use would drop to zero, government buildings would all be covered with solar panels, surfing porn sites and drinking coffee would be outlawed.
1075. Grothar
Quoting 1034. BahaHurican:
One thing I do know is that European languages, generally speaking, have been moving away from inflected endings based on gender. I suppose it's a reflection of social trends away from gender-specific roles.


Not really, the word for girl in German is neuter and the word for Miss is also neuter. Sometimes it depends on the suffix of the word. In some cases, a noun may be masculine and the suffix would grammatically make it neuter of feminine. For instance, all plurals of any noun in German are feminine.

That is why languages are like the weather; changeable and unpredictable.
Quoting 1060. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Do not want.



The warm-up coming this week will be significant (2m temperature departures 20-25F above average over a large area) but brief. Back to cold to end the month and start March.


If that happens we'd better do '93..

Now that I've got my 2 snows, I don't care for the cold unless it brings snow.

Im enjoying the 61F right now. (2 degrees above projected high)
1077. Grothar
Quoting 1068. Tazmanian:



Your late I said it 1st


You said nothing first. :)
1078. Grothar
From TWC.




Northeast

How much snow: Generally 1 to 5 inches in the affected areas (see inset map).
Timing: Beginning Monday night in most areas, except Tuesday morning in New England. Snow will generally last 6 to 12 hours in most locations before ending.
Cities affected: New York City, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Washington, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Syracuse
Winter weather alerts: Northeast
1079. nigel20
Latest Southern Oscillation Index values

SOI values for 16 Feb 2014

Average for last 30 days 5.3
Average for last 90 days 6.1
Daily contribution to SOI calculation 7.5

My guess is a mid to late summer El Nino. Maybe even neutral conditions. What do you guys think?
1080. Grothar
Quoting 1057. Doppler22:

Eastern PA should be included too. With the rain, all the snow melting and the possible ice jams on creeks and streams and even the Susquehanna it will be very possible for flooding.


Susquehanna????? ......slowly I turned, step by step.

I don't like to mention the Susquehanna, because our home is right at the confluence of the Chemung and the Susquehanna. We've already had enough floods.
We are about to have a showdown. Winter vs. Spring. Get ready.
Quoting 1080. Grothar:


Susquehanna????? ......slowly I turned, step by step.

I don't like to mention the Susquehanna, because our home is right at the confluence of the Chemung and the Susquehanna. We've already had enough floods.

Yeah, I said Susquehanna. She can be a beast if she wants to be. I hope she is not. I have a lot of friends along the Susquehanna.
Quoting 1074. wxmod:
Kerry calls for more action on climate

John Kerry said in a speech that military gas consumption would be cut in half, NSA computers would be turned off, government vehicles would be all electric, government garbage production (tools,food,etc) would be cut by 90 percent, paper use would drop to zero, government buildings would all be covered with solar panels, and drinking coffee would be outlawed.


tipping point we already are there
the point of no return
that occurs as soon as 70 percent of Greenland ice disappears

and that's to happen so fast it will be unbelievable
it will melt from below and above all at the same time

1084. hydrus
Quoting 1066. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


gfs does not seem as strong with the warm air push as previous models depicted

Good.
Quoting 1025. Grothar:




Hmm, that's funny. The NWS only has a slight chance for storms on that day.

1086. Grothar
Quoting 1082. Doppler22:

Yeah, I said Susquehanna. She can be a beast if she wants to be. I hope she is not. I have a lot of friends along the Susquehanna.


The first line was a joke for the over 50 crowd about Susquehanna.
Quoting 1084. hydrus:
Good.



Bad... I want to wear full shorts in 70s.

Doesnt appear to pose a significant severe wx threat regardless of warmth, the Shear is not aligned for it.
1089. barbamz
Quoting 1075. Grothar:


Not really, the word for girl in German is neuter and the word for Miss is also neuter. Sometimes it depends on the suffix of the word. In some cases, a noun may be masculine and the suffix would grammatically make it neuter of feminine. For instance, all plurals of any noun in German are feminine.

That is why languages are like the weather; changeable and unpredictable.



Grothar teaching languages in WU-class, lol.
Quoting 1083. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


tipping point we already are there
the point of no return
that occurs as soon as 70 percent of Greenland ice disappears

and that's to happen so fast it will be unbelievable
it will melt from below and above all at the same time



Kansas is a good band.

*Astro whistles away*
Quoting 1086. Grothar:


The first line was a joke for the over 50 crowd about Susquehanna.


You meant over 500*, correct?
1092. Dakster
Quoting 1083. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


tipping point we already are there
the point of no return
that occurs as soon as 70 percent of Greenland ice disappears

and that's to happen so fast it will be unbelievable
it will melt from below and above all at the same time



If that happens Baha won't have to worry about falling int a sinkhole. (of course I won't have a house either)
Quoting 1076. GeorgiaStormz:


If that happens we'd better do '93..

Now that I've got my 2 snows, I don't care for the cold unless it brings snow.

Im enjoying the 61F right now. (2 degrees above projected high)


You've had more snow this season in one storm than I have total in my 4 or 5 storms...

I want a good 6" before this season is out...is that too much to ask for?
1094. Dakster
Quoting 1091. Astrometeor:


You meant over 500*, correct?


50 Centuries old crowd.
Figure 1. Cumulative surface melt days for July 21 to August 19, 2013 (30 days). This period spans the peak melt extents seen this year. Note that the color scale is 0 to 30 days, rather than 0 to 100 days for the daily figure. Data are from the Greenland Daily Surface Melt 25km EASE-Grid 2.0 Climate Data Record.
About the data

Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center/Thomas Mote, University of Georgia
High-resolution image


Quoting 1093. Astrometeor:


You've had more snow this season in one storm than I have total in my 4 or 5 storms...

I want a good 6" before this season is out...is that too much to ask for?


I've only gotten 5" snow,1" sleet,.2" ice. So I don't have THAT much. 2 5" snow events isn't huge, besides the fact that you've more than made up for getting more snow than me in previous years...
I can't count all the times TN has gotten 1-3", 2-5", and GA has gotten flurries..

But TN is in a snow lull, so I am rooting for you to get snow. With Mother Nature it probably is too much to ask.
1097. wxmod
Quoting 1083. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


tipping point we already are there
the point of no return
that occurs as soon as 70 percent of Greenland ice disappears

and that's to happen so fast it will be unbelievable
it will melt from below and above all at the same time



What I really meant to say is that Kerry has outlined no plan at all except:

The internet and all cities will cease to function when they are flooded with sea water. All nuclear plants will be catastrophically contaminated when they are flooded with sea water. All food production will cease because of no climate predictability. Most houses that survive rising tides will be obliterated by civil war. The population problem will be solved, in a nutshell. That's the plan!
Quoting 1086. Grothar:


The first line was a joke for the over 50 crowd about Susquehanna.

Oh :p
1099. Grothar
Quoting 1085. Astrometeor:


Hmm, that's funny. The NWS only has a slight chance for storms on that day.



That is because I posted the wrong image. Are you happy now that you embarrassed an old man on the blog? :):)

Here, do you like this better?


Quoting 1094. Dakster:


50 Centuries old crowd.


50 millenia crowd
Quoting 1079. nigel20:
Latest Southern Oscillation Index values

SOI values for 16 Feb 2014

Average for last 30 days 5.3
Average for last 90 days 6.1
Daily contribution to SOI calculation 7.5

My guess is a mid to late summer El Nino. Maybe even neutral conditions. What do you guys think?


Hi nigel.

If there is a sustained moderate to strong +PDO and that gulf of Alaska warm water anomalies spreads down the west coast of North America then odds will favor a strong east based Nino. If we get a weaker +PDO signal then it may be the weaker central Pacific Nino (modoki). I wouldn't favor modoki at this time if there is a Nino since they tend to occur more during the decadal +PDO regime.But let's not be carried away with El Nino talk because there isn't an El Nino at this time.In fact the surface SST's look more like neutral to La Nina if anything else. But the stage is being set and things are changing and the possibility continues to grow over just dominant neutral. If there were to be an El Nino the earliest it could be declared is mid to late summer and that's if we were talking about a strong one. In summary is early to say with precision what will happen with ENSO later this year. But it will be fascinating to watch how all the players are evolving as time goes ahead.
Quoting 1099. Grothar:


That is because I posted the wrong image. Are you happy now that you embarrassed an old man on the blog? :):)

Here, do you like this better?





WxChaser97 better not come back bragging again.. :D
Quoting 1099. Grothar:


That is because I posted the wrong image. Are you happy now that you embarrassed an old man on the blog? :):)

Here, do you like this better?




No, I don't live there. Make it come down here.

Quoting 1102. GeorgiaStormz:



WxChaser97 better not come back bragging again.. :D


Seriously...lol.

Quoting 1096. GeorgiaStormz:


I've only gotten 5" snow,1" sleet,.2" ice. So I don't have THAT much. 2 5" snow events isn't huge, besides the fact that you've more than made up for getting more snow than me in previous years...
I can't count all the times TN has gotten 1-3", 2-5", and GA has gotten flurries..

But TN is in a snow lull, so I am rooting for you to get snow. With Mother Nature it probably is too much to ask.


True.

Last 6"+ storm was in Feb. of 2003 around this time. That was the best snowstorm I remember, I had so much fun. And it was even better that I was younger, the snow looked like 2' drifts to little Astro.
Quoting 1092. Dakster:


If that happens Baha won't have to worry about falling int a sinkhole. (of course I won't have a house either)


well it will be best to get out of her way cause its going to be done
1105. Grothar
Quoting 1089. barbamz:



Grothar teaching languages in WU-class, lol.


And there is Taz in the background saying he taught it first!

(Good one, Barb)
OK,this is just a clipper.Its not going to transform into a Nor'easter, so why name it?
1107. nigel20
Quoting 1101. Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi nigel.

If there is a sustained moderate to strong +PDO and that gulf of Alaska warm water anomalies spreads down the west coast of North America then odds will favor a strong east based Nino. If we get a weaker +PDO signal then it may be the weaker central Pacific Nino (modoki). I wouldn't favor modoki at this time if there is a Nino since they tend to occur more during the decadal +PDO regime.But let's not be carried away with El Nino talk because there isn't an El Nino at this time.In fact the surface SST's look more like neutral to La Nina if anything else. But the stage is being set and things are changing and the possibility continues to grow over just dominant neutral. If there were to be an El Nino the earliest it could be declared is mid to late summer and that's if we were talking about a strong one. In summary is early to say with precision what will happen with ENSO later this year. But it will be fascinating to watch how all the players are evolving as time goes ahead.

Hey Luis!

Wonderful summary, couldn't agree more. The atmosphere is also favoring neutral conditions for the time being. The 90 day SOI is just above 6, still far from -8 or lower.

We'll just have to see what pans out in the medium to long term. :)
Quoting 1086. Grothar:


The first line was a joke for the over 50 crowd about Susquehanna.


Must be an East coast joke??
Quoting 1102. GeorgiaStormz:



WxChaser97 better not come back bragging again.. :D

Oh...
I'm getting several more inches of snow and you aren't! :P
1110. Dakster
Quoting 1108. PedleyCA:


Must be an East coast joke??


Yup. But more North on the East Coast then where I am.
Has anyone seen WxChase97 Around?

I can't seem to see comment 1109..... Wonder if it had anything to say :P
This is what I don't like about the local met's...They talk about whats to come but not whats after.They're talking about the warm up but not the cold that will quickly follow.For example.You go to college and have a good time however your not prepared for those student loans about to hit you.
1113. Dakster
Quoting 1112. washingtonian115:
This is what I don't like about the local met's...They talk about whats to come but not whats after.They're talking about the warm up but not the cold that will quickly follow.For example.You go to college and have a good time however your not prepared for those student loans about to hit you.


Good analogy...
Quoting 1113. Dakster:


Good analogy...
By this weekend I expect to see people in their shorts and shorts sleeves while winter is behind the corner and laughing like it's a sick joke.Just like earlier this month.That weekend where it was in it's 50's..the cold came as a shock.
Quoting 1112. washingtonian115:
This is what I don't like about the local met's...They talk about whats to come but not whats after.They're talking about the warm up but not the cold that will quickly follow.For example.You go to college and have a good time however your not prepared for those student loans about to hit you.


Agree 100%. They have to talk about the big picture ahead not the near term timeframe.
1116. Grothar
My family told me it is time for my walk. It is a nice day so it should be nice. I just wish this collar wasn't so tight.

Play nicey nice.
Quoting 1111. GeorgiaStormz:
Has anyone seen WxChase97 Around?

I can't seem to see comment 1109..... Wonder if it had anything to say :P

GAStormz pls.
Don't worry, you'll still manage to get more severe weather than me.
Early morning Tuesday


NAM 48 hour snow totals
1120. Dakster
Quoting 1116. Grothar:
My family told me it is time for my walk. It is a nice day so it should be nice. I just wish this collar wasn't so tight.

Play nicey nice.


I'll by her a wireless shock collar for you to wear instead.
1121. Dakster
Quoting 1114. washingtonian115:
By this weekend I expect to see people in their shorts and shorts sleeves while winter is behind the corner and laughing like it's a sick joke.Just like earlier this month.That weekend where it was in it's 50's..the cold came as a shock.


This brings up memories/nightmares. When I was little living in Arkansas - there was a cold front coming that I didn't know about. I went to school in shorts and a t-shirt and by lunch it was snowing, by the time school let out it was too cold to snow... I didn't even have a LIGHT jacket with me.
Quoting 1116. Grothar:
My family told me it is time for my walk. It is a nice day so it should be nice. I just wish this collar wasn't so tight.

Play nicey nice.


well have a good walk see ya when ya get back

is that one of them there electric collars you know the one that zaps ya every time ya try and take off
I can not believe some of the stupidity I'm hearing right now.."Perhaps a early spring coming with these temps?.Looks like winter will come to a end next week"..I can't.I've turn the channel.Anyone in D.C DO NOT! listen to this bafoonery.
1124. LargoFl
Starting to feel like spring in florida huh......
1125. LargoFl
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
336 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-06 2-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-172045-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SU SQUEHANNA-
NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
336 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS LIKELY LATE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION...HOWEVER A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$
1126. sar2401
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


well have a good walk see ya when ya get back

is that one of them there electric collars you know the one that zaps ya every time ya try and take off

Or when he starts barking. I hear the neighbors are getting really annoyed, especially with all the barking in German. :-)
1127. sar2401
Quoting LargoFl:
Starting to feel like spring in florida huh......

70 degrees in Eufaula after a low of 29. Quite a diurnal spread.
Quoting 1127. sar2401:

70 degrees in Eufaula after a low of 29. Quite a diurnal spread.


We hit a low of 30, and I am currently reading 55.8

Not as big as your swing, but still 8 degrees above what the NWS expected. When will they learn...
74.0 here, slowly creeping up to the forecast high of 76.
What ya got on your end Dakster?
Tornado season is just around the corner.


Kernel density estimations of total annual tornado initiation points per decade within 40 km of a point using a 70-km bandwidth.


Source - AMS Online Journal
1131. Dakster
Quoting 1129. PedleyCA:
74.0 here, slowly creeping up to the forecast high of 76.
What ya got on your end Dakster?


76F at the moment.
1132. LargoFl
thousands will be here tonight..Clearwater fl blues festival..beautiful weather for it too..
Quoting 1123. washingtonian115:
I can not believe some of the stupidity I'm hearing right now.."Perhaps a early spring coming with these temps?.Looks like winter will come to a end next week"..I can't.I've turn the channel.Anyone in D.C DO NOT! listen to this bafoonery.


what a lovely spring day it will be

1134. nigel20
Developing showers over central and western (south) Jamaica.

This area is Farming intensive (Mostly vegetable), so they are very much happy for the rain.
1135. Dakster
Quoting 1132. LargoFl:
thousands will be here tonight..Clearwater fl blues festival..beautiful weather for it too..


With as nice as Clearwater is, you shouldn't be singing the blues... just saying.
Some more AMS pics i dont think i ever posted.

I have one of Levi32 as well, but I don't know if he'd want me to post it or not so I won't.

Me and Marshall Shepherd (Outgoing AMS President, UGA!)


Me and Rick Knabb (NHC)


Me and Bernie Rayno (Accuweather)


Math


1137. LargoFl
Quoting 1135. Dakster:


With as nice as Clearwater is, you shouldn't be singing the blues... just saying.
lol with THIS weather aint no one crying lol..man this is one great festival..tons of sea food and music..
31 days until Spring.
Quoting 1117. wxchaser97:

GAStormz pls.
Don't worry, you'll still manage to get more severe weather than me.


True. Although even michigan has had EF-5 tornadoes and Georgia hasnt.




All those in AL, not much in GA
Quoting 1138. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Temps just gonna have to warm up when they want to warm up.
M 3.2 Earthquake near Edgefield, SC likely aftershock from Friday. #scquake
Quoting 1130. Sfloridacat5:
Tornado season is just around the corner.


Kernel density estimations of total annual tornado initiation points per decade within 40 km of a point using a 70-km bandwidth.


Source - AMS Online Journal



Tampa Bay is not just a lightning capital, but nearly a tornado capital too, which makes sense because we get a very large number of strong to severe thunderstorms.

The good thing is, the majority of tornadoes and strongest thunderstorms occur in Florida when wind shear is weak, thus long tracked super cells and stronger tornadoes are few and far between.

If we had a high shear environment in the summer, it would be tornado nightmare.
1144. Dakster
Quoting 1142. GeorgiaStormz:
M 3.2 Earthquake near Edgefield, SC likely aftershock from Friday. #scquake


Wow. That's the third one in that area in the past couple of weeks. Maybe the past week, but I gotta look up when the 2.4 hit the area earlier.
Quoting 1141. Climate175:
Temps just gonna have to warm up when they want to warm up.
it will warm up maybe after march 15th
1146. Dakster
Quoting 1145. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
it will warm up maybe after march 15th


I know the rest of the Country needs/wants to warm-up but for me that means scorching heat...
Quoting 1131. Dakster:


76F at the moment.


74.7 here now. Off to Costco to pickup a printer cartridge refill. Their machine was down when I was shopping there yesterday. Big waste of gas just for that so I will get a few more items. BBL
1148. LargoFl
Quoting 1146. Dakster:


I know the rest of the Country needs/wants to warm-up but for me that means scorching heat...
yeah the scorching heat is getting closer..maybe even next month..
Central Oklahoma - I graduated from Moore High School just South of OKC.


The deadly day for the Southern Gulf Coast/S.E.


1150. LargoFl
1151. Dakster
I hope no one was in that pickup... Cause. Damn.
Quoting 1145. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
it will warm up maybe after march 15th
Yep around St. Patrick's Day. I think it has to do with seasonal lag.
Quoting 1075. Grothar:


Not really, the word for girl in German is neuter and the word for Miss is also neuter. Sometimes it depends on the suffix of the word. In some cases, a noun may be masculine and the suffix would grammatically make it neuter of feminine. For instance, all plurals of any noun in German are feminine.

That is why languages are like the weather; changeable and unpredictable.
Well, I just want to clarify that I wasn't including German in that list of languages moving away from inflections.... lol... I think I got the basic stuff down, but keeping the genders right is likely to be an ongoing challenge... die and English the obviously share a root, but obviously also English has gotten rid of all the other stuff... same thing with verbs endings, English is down to, what, four, compared to hundreds in German??? [a bit of hyperbole, I agree].

The language changes are usually slow to occur; climate shift is also.... day to day wx is more like "slang"... lol... of course you've seen a lot more linguistic change than just about everybody...

Quoting 1092. Dakster:


If that happens Baha won't have to worry about falling int a sinkhole. (of course I won't have a house either)
Yah... I'll be underwater anyway... so I think the inflatable pillow might be a good idea either way....

Quoting 1104. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


well it will be best to get out of her way cause its going to be done
...maybe keep a raft under the bed???
Quoting 1144. Dakster:


Wow. That's the third one in that area in the past couple of weeks. Maybe the past week, but I gotta look up when the 2.4 hit the area earlier.


Quoting 1136. GeorgiaStormz:
Some more AMS pics i dont think i ever posted.

I have one of Levi32 as well, but I don't know if he'd want me to post it or not so I won't.

Me and Marshall Shepherd (Outgoing AMS President, UGA!)


Me and Rick Knabb (NHC)


Me and Bernie Rayno (Accuweather)


Math


Nice pics... I was wondering if u'd remember 2 post them... and u should WUmail Levi and see what he says about posting.
First Day of Spring, March 20th, what the Sunlight Map will look like.
Quoting 1153. BahaHurican:
Yah... I'll be underwater anyway... so I think the inflatable pillow might be a good idea either way....

...maybe keep a raft under the bed???


Haven't you ever wanted a water bed, Baha?
Quoting 1140. GeorgiaStormz:


True. Although even michigan has had EF-5 tornadoes and Georgia hasnt.




All those in AL, not much in GA

Well I hope I don't see an EF-5 in my area as if one struck the Metro Detroit area, the disaster would in unbelievable.
I'll take large hail and straight-line winds, but tornadoes can stay over open fields.
Snow Depth from last year on this day.
Quoting 1160. wxchaser97:

Well I hope I don't see an EF-5 in my area as if one struck the Metro Detroit area, the disaster would in unbelievable.
I'll take large hail and straight-line winds, but tornadoes can stay over open fields.


that's what I fear here in Toronto and if one was to form it would likely follow the 401 nice straight path right over the highest populated area of Canada
and well we have not had one that I am aware of except for ef3 in barrie many years ago

I fear it would be deadly as well cause well most here don't think it can happen but over the last little while the occurrences are increasing slowly but surely

never rule anything out
Quoting 1160. wxchaser97:

Well I hope I don't see an EF-5 in my area as if one struck the Metro Detroit area, the disaster would in unbelievable.
I'll take large hail and straight-line winds, but tornadoes can stay over open fields.


Aren't you going storm chasing this year or something?
Earlier there was a discussion about using radar to indicate wind speeds in a tornado.

In the data I printed about central Oklahoma, out of 846 total tornadoes, only 2 were classified as F5s (now EF5s).

The WPAC has new Invest 93W well SE of Guam.

1166. Thrawst
Quoting 1130. Sfloridacat5:
Tornado season is just around the corner.


Kernel density estimations of total annual tornado initiation points per decade within 40 km of a point using a 70-km bandwidth.


Source - AMS Online Journal


Very interesting maps. Can't wait to storm chase in the plains in late May.
2013 tornado map - It was a below average year for tornadoes.
Quoting 1166. Thrawst:


Very interesting maps. Can't wait to storm chase in the plains in late May.







Would love to join you. I used to chase when I lived in central Oklahoma (just S.W. of Oklahoma City) I've been planning to setup a vehicle to chase with. I just need to try to make it work with my current job. I know another teacher that chases when there's a big event planned. He also takes out tours when school lets out at the end of may.
But I would hate to miss April which is a prime month.
1169. Thrawst
Quoting 1168. Sfloridacat5:


Considering my current location (Miami)... the only time I would be storm chasing before I fly to KC in May would be significant events in the eastern half of Dixie Alley, which would include Alabama, east Mississippi, and Georgia. Those setups can occur in anytime of the winter and spring seasons, but peak usually in the late March to the late April range.

Quoting 1163. Astrometeor:


Aren't you going storm chasing this year or something?

I don't think so...
Quoting 1169. Thrawst:


Considering my current location (Miami)... the only time I would be storm chasing before I fly to KC in May would be significant events in the eastern half of Dixie Alley, which would include Alabama, east Mississippi, and Georgia. Those setups can occur in anytime of the winter and spring seasons, but peak usually in the late March to the late April range.



Yep, I'm down in Fort Myers. So we are a long way from the main show.
But I would take off a couple weeks in April and set up in an area where the SPC is expecting severe weather.
I've got an 8 day break at the end of March beginning of April this season, but I'm not setup to chase. I need some mobile equipment to get setup first.
Quoting 1170. wxchaser97:

I don't think so...


? What! Sheesh...

I must be getting some sort of disease from Grothar or something, I can't remember anything about anyone anymore.

I could've sworn you were talking about storm chasing with your father or somethin'.
1173. sar2401
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
2013 tornado map - It was a below average year for tornadoes.

It was really quiet in Alabama with just 23 tornadoes total, 3 EF-2's and none higher, and no tornadoes of any size in SE Alabama, all records. 2012 was more active but still only had 55 tornadoes with 2 EF-3's and 12 EF-2's but even that was below average, just not a record. A striking difference in the last two years have been the increase in tornadoes occurring between 0100 and 0500 with almost 23% of all the tornadoes occurring during those hours and 26% occurring between 1600 and 2200 hours. Typically, there are about twice as many tornadoes occurring during the late afternoon compared to very early morning. I don't know what all this means but I'm sure those that know about such things will figure it all out at some point in the future.
1174. barbamz
UK storms: Footage shows deadly waves from cruise ship
BBC video, 1 minute ago
Footage has emerged a cruise ship being rocked by a severe storm, around 45 minutes before a passenger on board was killed.
James Swinstead, 85, of Colchester, Essex, died when a huge wave crashed into the British vessel, Marco Polo, on Friday.
His widow, Helen, praised the crew but criticised the vessel as "badly maintained".
Operator Cruise and Maritime Voyages (CMV) said the ship was fully compliant with "strict" maritime regulation.


Nice cruise! I would have been really scared. Good night and a nice week!

Edit: And this one from earlier is worth to have a look, too:

Stunning new film shows power of stormy seas
The Local, published: 13 Feb 2014 12:07 GMT 01:00
The storms that have lashed the French coast this year have caused widespread damage, but they have also created some stunning sights, that have been captured by a film crew behind a new movie. Watch an extract here. WARNING: You may never want to get in a boat again. ...
1176. sar2401
Quoting Dakster:


Wow. That's the third one in that area in the past couple of weeks. Maybe the past week, but I gotta look up when the 2.4 hit the area earlier.

It is the third one in a week but the area around Edgefield can expect to get 10 or so 2.0+ magnitude aftershocks and about 100 1.5+ aftershocks from the 4.1 magnitude quake several days ago.
Whats interesting is that Florida is pretty high up on the tornado frequency list.
The tornadoes in Florida are so unpredictable its extremely hard to chase. The tall trees in many areas around here make visibility difficult.

But I've seen at least 6 tornadoes in the past 15 years in the Fort Myers/Cape Coral area. But these were all EF0 in strength. Some roof damage and a few cars flipped over, but no serious injuries or deaths that I am aware of.
If any one looking for a good 8" window 8.1 tablet I would look in two a dell I got the dell venue 8 pro and I love it
S.W. Florida tornado - I didn't take the picture. I wish I had seen this one. It was seen by a lot of people and did cause some damage to homes and property.


Florida tornado map
At least Daylight Saving Time is coming soon. More Daylight!
Quoting 1148. LargoFl:
yeah the scorching heat is getting closer..maybe even next month..
I'm sure the snowbound East would be quite willing to trade off with the super-dry west for the few remaining weeks of winter... unfortunately for the west, it doesn't look like much of a pattern change is in the works...

1182. sar2401
Quoting barbamz:
UK storms: Footage shows deadly waves from cruise ship
BBC video, 1 minute ago
Footage has emerged a cruise ship being rocked by a severe storm, around 45 minutes before a passenger on board was killed.
James Swinstead, 85, of Colchester, Essex, died when a huge wave crashed into the British vessel, Marco Polo, on Friday.
His widow, Helen, praised the crew but criticised the vessel as "badly maintained".
Operator Cruise and Maritime Voyages (CMV) said the ship was fully compliant with "strict" maritime regulation.


Nice cruise! I would have been really scared. Good night and a nice week!

Edit: And this one from earlier is worth to have a look, too:

Stunning new film shows power of stormy seas
The Local, published: 13 Feb 2014 12:07 GMT 01:00
The storms that have lashed the French coast this year have caused widespread damage, but they have also created some stunning sights, that have been captured by a film crew behind a new movie. Watch an extract here. WARNING: You may never want to get in a boat again. ...

In regards to the Marco Polo, those were some pretty big waves although, in my summer and fall on a Great Lakes ore boat, I saw two storms on Lake Superior with 30 foot waves that were breaking amidships over the ore deck of our boat. It sounds like terrible luck for the man killed to have been sitting in the wrong place in the restaurant when a rogue wave crashed through four windows but I'm not sure why the widow thinks the Marco Polo wasn't properly maintained. It's an old (1965) and small (578 feet) vessel but it's an ex-Russian vessel that was built as a ice strengthened troopship that was only secondarily built for cruising. Like most things Russian, it's built like a tank. The only thing I can find in the story was her reference to rust and leakage on some window somewhere on the ship. Every ship I've been on has rust. It's the nature of steel and saltwater. She has nothing bad to say about the crew but standard procedure when there's that kind of storm is to seat guests away from any windows that could be affected by waves. If I had to pick a smaller vessel to be on in that kind of storm, the Marco Polo wouldn't have been a bad choice.
Quoting 1180. Climate175:
At least Daylight Saving Time is coming soon. More Daylight!


March 9
Quoting 1180. Climate175:
At least Daylight Saving Time is coming soon. More Daylight!


You know, the Sun and the Earth don't really care what we do with our clocks.

Northern Hemisphere is getting more sun regardless of what pointless changes we do with our clocks.
Quoting 1181. BahaHurican:
I'm sure the snowbound East would be quite willing to trade off with the super-dry west for the few remaining weeks of winter... unfortunately for the west, it doesn't look like much of a pattern change is in the works...



Unfortunately, I feel that in the long run (long term trend), the western half of the United States is going to just get drier and drier over time.
1186. sar2401
Quoting Climate175:
At least Daylight Saving Time is coming soon. More Daylight!

That's for sure. I'm on the edge (literally about a mile) of the Eastern and Central time zones, and the wrong side of Eastern so, when it's 7:00 at night, it really should be 6:00. Sunset today is still only 5:32 pm and, even in summer, sunset is still 8:00 pm. I'm really sick of darkness.
Quoting 1184. Astrometeor:


You know, the Sun and the Earth don't really care what we do with our clocks.

Northern Hemisphere is getting more sun regardless of what pointless changes we do with our clocks.


I love seeing video of people playing golf at 11 pm at night up in Alaska during the summer. That would be a trip.
1188. ncstorm
ABC News
"Climate change can now be considered another weapon of mass destruction, perhaps the world' most fearsome weapon of mass destruction," John Kerry said. http://abcn.ws/1nF3RM1

well we all know what happened the last time someone said there was weapons of mass destructon..smh..
Whelp, looks like no Ultimate Frisbee practice Thursday, lmao:

Quoting 1186. sar2401:

That's for sure. I'm on the edge (literally about a mile) of the Eastern and Central time zones, and the wrong side of Eastern so, when it's 7:00 at night, it really should be 6:00. Sunset today is still only 5:32 pm and, even in summer, sunset is still 8:00 pm. I'm really sick of darkness.


Florida panhandle all the way to West Texas are in the same time zone. It would be totally dark in the Florida Panhandle while the sun would still be shinning bright in West Texas at the same time.
Quoting 1187. Sfloridacat5:


I love seeing video of people playing golf at 11 pm at night up in Alaska during the summer. That would be a trip.


I like that car commercial that shows the young couple getting up at 3 AM to go driving.

My parents say they have really thick blinds/curtains up there...because the lack of sun/or too much of it can really affect a human's sleeping cycle and state of sanity.
Quoting 1123. washingtonian115:
I can not believe some of the stupidity I'm hearing right now.."Perhaps a early spring coming with these temps?.Looks like winter will come to a end next week"..I can't.I've turn the channel.Anyone in D.C DO NOT! listen to this bafoonery.


The only year spring came in February and even halfway stayed (not counting the several inch snowstorm March 9 or so) was 1976. The last brutal winter weather really was the first week in February that year. The last two weeks of February 1976 had departures from normal comparable to March 2012 but it was like April in February rather than May in March.

But yeah this looks to be a typical late winter warm spell of a few days duration followed by typical late winter chill.



1193. sar2401
Quoting Astrometeor:
Speaking of severe weather:



Edit: It's Severe Weather Awareness Week in Tennessee!

Skywarn is a really good thing to join for all us weather geeks. You only have to take one 2 hour class which, for most of us, goes over things we already know. There's also a longer "graduate" course that is more in-depth and quite interesting if you want to take it. You don't have to be a ham radio operator (although anyone who is an active ham really should be in Skywarn), just have a pair of eyes and a cell phone. You have more credibility with the NWS as a trained spotter and your reports will be acted on more quickly than just a member of the general public. As we all know, radar doesn't always show what's happening on the ground, so the more spotters the better
Quoting 1180. Climate175:
At least Daylight Saving Time is coming soon. More Daylight!


And dark an hour later in the morning. I do prefer having more evening daylight.
Quoting 1133. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


what a lovely spring day it will be

Lol keep.I'm not sure why they aren't discussing what will be waiting for people after the "warmth".
Quoting 1193. sar2401:

Skywarn is a really good thing to join for all us weather geeks. You only have to take one 2 hour class which, for most of us, goes over things we already know. There's also a longer "graduate" course that is more in-depth and quite interesting if you want to take it. You don't have to be a ham radio operator (although anyone who is an active ham really should be in Skywarn), just have a pair of eyes and a cell phone. You have more credibility with the NWS as a trained spotter and your reports will be acted on more quickly than just a member of the general public. As we all know, radar doesn't always show what's happening on the ground, so the more spotters the better


Yeah, I took both classes. Yay me!

Although...I did develop a "food coma" during the second one during the technology and programming aspects of tracking severe weather due to the organizers putting the lunch break in between the two sessions.
Quoting 1192. georgevandenberghe:


The only year spring came in February and even halfway stayed (not counting the several inch snowstorm March 9 or so) was 1976. The last brutal winter weather really was the first week in February that year. The last two weeks of February 1976 had departures from normal comparable to March 2012 but it was like April in February rather than May in March.

But yeah this looks to be a typical late winter warm spell of a few days duration followed by typical late winter chill.



Spring will be coming and going like a house guest until it's finally ready to move in completely and get accommodated.For now it's just crashing on winter's couch every once and a while.lol.

EDIT.Stupid spell check is screwing me up.
Quoting 1195. washingtonian115:
Lol keep.I'm not sure why they aren't discussing what will be waiting for people after the "warmth".


Psychology and time. It's still too far out for the public to really care. Besides, you don't want to bum them out too much, just tell them to focus on the week ahead, and then we'll deal with the consequences later.
1199. ncstorm
The stores are full of spring apparel..winter time apparel is on clearance..lets advertise spring so people can go spend..spend..spend..
Quoting 1165. Tropicsweatherpr:
The WPAC has new Invest 93W well SE of Guam.

When I was looking there it looked like a S. Hemisphere storm on the equator.
CGP Grey explains Daylight Saving Time:

Quoting 1198. Astrometeor:


Psychology and time. It's still too far out for the public to really care. Besides, you don't want to bum them out too much, just tell them to focus on the week ahead, and then we'll deal with the consequences later.
No you see the local met's are basically telling people that winter is over and they can bring our the short sleeves and hang up the big coats.That is when you have a problem.Their advertising a warm up and all the while falsely advertising winter is done around here.Which is not true at all.
Quoting 1202. washingtonian115:
No you see the local met's are basically telling people that winter is over and they can bring our the short sleeves and hang up the big coats.That is when you have a problem.Their advertising a warm up and all the while falsely advertising winter is done around here.Which is not true at all.
I really think they should not be promoting that "winter is over" when we have not even reached March yet. It is not prudent and very dumb if you ask me.
Quoting 1202. washingtonian115:
No you see the local met's are basically telling people that winter is over and they can bring our the short sleeves and hang up the big coats.That is when you have a problem.Their advertising a warm up and all the while falsely advertising winter is done around here.Which is not true at all.


Well, if you want to get technical, their kinda right. Spring is the bipolar season of hot and cold, and even though we are less than 2 weeks from spring (meteorological calendar), we are already seeing the edge effects of our approach. Winter, meanwhile, is constant cold (relatively speaking), and that IS drawing to a close.

Do you not like spring, Washi?
its snowing at my house again in new haven,conn
Quoting 1201. Astrometeor:
CGP Grey explains Daylight Saving Time:

I was just watching that video, the days get longer by 2 minutes each day as of now.
So Meteorological Spring is the turning point for temps?
Quoting 1207. Climate175:
So Meteorological Spring is the turning point for temps?


No. Not at all. For instance, summer lasts from June to August or from June 21 to Sept. 21 depending on your calendar choice, but my hottest temps are around mid-late August.

However, in winter, at least for me, my temps begin to uptick in mid-January, and, by this time, I have risen (climatology wise) 6 degrees above our winter low.

And all this fluctuates on where you live exactly.
Quoting 1204. Astrometeor:


Well, if you want to get technical, their kinda right. Spring is the bipolar season of hot and cold, and even though we are less than 2 weeks from spring (meteorological calendar), we are already seeing the edge effects of our approach. Winter, meanwhile, is constant cold (relatively speaking), and that IS drawing to a close.

Do you not like spring, Washi?
so you are saying that on march first when I wake up all the snow will be melting and it will turn to water and I can start going outside in shorts and tee shirts having a BBQ and not worry about anymore acc snowstorms tll dec 2014
new winter storm name now..
Quoting 1210. hurricanes2018:
new winter storm name now..
Sorry dude,to late for that. :\
Hit 80F/26.67C at the Airport (KRAL) and it got to 77.8F/25.44C here at my place.... and now for the cooldown.
1213. Dakster
We are cooling down as the sun is down. CUrrently, 70F out.
Quoting 1204. Astrometeor:


Well, if you want to get technical, their kinda right. Spring is the bipolar season of hot and cold, and even though we are less than 2 weeks from spring (meteorological calendar), we are already seeing the edge effects of our approach. Winter, meanwhile, is constant cold (relatively speaking), and that IS drawing to a close.

Do you not like spring, Washi?
Cold is cold and snow is snow point blank period.I'm not putting up the winter gear yet until I see temps rise consistently above 55 degrees.
Quoting 1214. washingtonian115:
Cold is cold and snow is snow point blank period.I'm not putting up the winter gear yet until I see temps rise consistently rise above 55 degrees.
Yea as of now it is like a roller coaster.
1216. Dakster
Quoting 1214. washingtonian115:
Cold is cold and snow is snow point blank period.I'm not putting up the winter gear yet until I see temps rise consistently rise above 55 degrees.


Considering I've had FROST in Miami-Dade in mid-March, I agree.
10 day forecast for NW FL indicates a cool down about a week from now.
I don't want to hear any talk of Spring. I just declared Winter a few weeks ago. What's wrong with you people....lol
It has even snowed in April, but it is very rare, we just gotta let nature take it's course.
1220. Dakster
Quoting 1219. Climate175:
It has even snowed in April, but it is very rare, we just gotta let nature take it's course.


You mean Mother Nature doesn't follow our Calendar?

1221. ncstorm
what happened to all that red..with the above average temps in the east??...you mean to tell me the CPC was wrong..I was looking forward to that :(



Quoting 1221. ncstorm:
what happened to all that red..with the above average temps in the east??...you mean to tell me the CPC was wrong..I was looking forward to that :(



Ah winter and it's tricks...
Here is an interesting picture: all tropical cyclone tornadoes generated during the 1995 to 2010 period:




You can find the source here which is also a very interesting article via the SPC on tropical cyclone tornadoes:
Link
Quoting 1220. Dakster:


You mean Mother Nature doesn't follow our Calendar?

Nope she follows the Natureorian Calender. :) XD
1225. Thrawst
Pretty decent hodograph shows up per 12z GFS for Memphis, Tennessee at 18z Thursday, February 20th, 2014. If temperatures are a little bit warmer, more like 70-75 instead of the current 60-65 the GFS is projecting, then there would be a greater tornado threat. But for right now the main threat looks to be damaging winds, with brief spinups possible.



Quoting 1221. ncstorm:
what happened to all that red..with the above average temps in the east??...you mean to tell me the CPC was wrong..I was looking forward to that :(



I guess nature just had other plans..
Quoting 1221. ncstorm:
what happened to all that red..with the above average temps in the east??...you mean to tell me the CPC was wrong..I was looking forward to that :(






Lol lol lol oh well they gave two CA now
Quoting 1226. washingtonian115:
I guess nature just had other plans..
What local news station said that anyway ?
1229. yoboi
Quoting 1227. Tazmanian:



Lol lol lol oh well they gave two CA now




poof....;)
UGH!
There will be a warmup in the East this week, but definitely briefer than originally thought. Friday looks like the warmest day for many:



Nothing but more cold behind that though.

Quoting 1229. yoboi:




poof....;)



Lol
1233. ncstorm
well as long as California and Alaska are still in the red thats all that matter..sorry taz :)..stay cool over there..
Quoting 1231. MAweatherboy1:
There will be a warmup in the East this week, but definitely briefer than originally thought. Friday looks like the warmest day for many:



Nothing but more cold behind that though.



What do you think about the Euro model showing another coastal storm at 144 hours ? More heavy snow ?
Quoting 1233. ncstorm:
well as long as California and Alaska are still in the red thats all that matter..sorry taz :)..stay cool over there..
.


This has been vary good working weather wish is vary rare for this time of year where it sould be wet and cold weather yuck oh wants two work in that
Quoting 1221. ncstorm:
what happened to all that red..with the above average temps in the east??...you mean to tell me the CPC was wrong..I was looking forward to that :(





That's because the warmth comes before 6th day from today.
Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 6 am to 6 PM CST Monday...

Tonight

Mostly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of snow and sleet... possibly mixed with freezing rain and after midnight. Lows around 18. Temperature steady or slowly rising after midnight. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Monday - Washingtons Birthday

Snow...possibly mixed with sleet and freezing rain in the morning...then snow likely...possibly mixed with freezing rain in the afternoon. Snow and sleet accumulation of 4 to 5 inches. Highs in the lower 30s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

Monday Night

Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 20s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Quoting 1228. Climate175:
What local news station said that anyway ?
CBS.BS at the end should stand for B.S
Quoting 1223. Jedkins01:
Here is an interesting picture: all tropical cyclone tornadoes generated during the 1995 to 2010 period:

You can find the source here which is also a very interesting article via the SPC on tropical cyclone tornadoes:
Link
That one in northwest Indiana is a surprise!
Quoting 1234. weatherlover94:


What do you think about the Euro model showing another coastal storm at 144 hours ? More heavy snow ?

The 12z run today had a pretty good storm in around the 168 hour timeframe. Most of the snow stayed in NY and northern New England. I think that period bears watching as we transition back from a brief warmup into the cold pattern that has dominated the winter, but it's way too early to try to determine whether the storm will impact parts of the East, and if so what form the precipitation would take.
Quoting 1235. Tazmanian:
.


This has been vary good working weather wish is vary rare for this time of year where it sould be wet and cold weather yuck oh wants two work in that


Farmers and the men who operate your water supply.
Quoting 1238. washingtonian115:
CBS.BS at the end should stand for B.S
It's all about ratings. Al Roker and the polar vortex hurricane, this winter is going in the history book as the most funniest winter you have ever seen.
Proud Family even showed it accurately.
Quoting 1235. Tazmanian:
.


This has been vary good working weather wish is vary rare for this time of year where it sould be wet and cold weather yuck oh wants two work in that
1249. sar2401
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Florida panhandle all the way to West Texas are in the same time zone. It would be totally dark in the Florida Panhandle while the sun would still be shinning bright in West Texas at the same time.

Yeah, the whole thing is nutty. You can see that Michigan and most of Indiana are in the same latitude as Alabama yet they are in Eastern time. Even though all of Alabama is supposed to be in Central, Phenix City, about 50 miles north of me, is in Eastern because all their commercial connections are with Columbus GA (in Eastern) and not with Alabama. My fiance lives across the river in Georgetown GA but works in Eufaula so she has two different time zones to contend with just for work.
Quoting 1243. Climate175:
It's all about ratings. Al Roker and the polar vortex hurricane, this winter is going in the history book as the most funniest winter you have ever seen.
Exactly!.Dr Oz came on fox 5 taking about health issues in the winter.The news anchor asked him about the cold weather currently going on "The Arctic hurricane is going to come down and cause huge problems.Stay inside and keep warm and take necessary precautions for your skin".Does anybody have a picture of this arctic hurricane?.I still don't know what it looks like..must be invisible.
Quoting 1250. washingtonian115:
Exactly!.Dr Oz came on fox 5 taking about health issues in the winter.The news anchor asked him about the cold weather currently going on "The Arctic hurricane is going to come down and cause huge problems.Stay inside and keep warm and take necessary precautions for your skin".Does anybody have a picture of this arctic hurricane?.I still don't know what it looks like..must be invisible.
The NHC has not named Arctic Hurricane Arthur so i would not assume so.
Here is Stacy working hard.
Quoting 1247. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
We are on the edge of possible heavy snow.
1254. Dakster
Hey BB - How's your weather been?

When you left work on Friday, did you tell your boss, See you next Tuesday?
Quoting 1253. washingtonian115:
We are on the edge of possible heavy snow.
ya there just general maps iam sure a finer detail one will follow

all I know after a week break looks like I got to break out the shovel and snowblower again
Quoting 1221. ncstorm:
what happened to all that red..with the above average temps in the east??...you mean to tell me the CPC was wrong..I was looking forward to that...
No, the CPC wasn't wrong. I think the problem is that you're still misunderstanding these maps--what they're for, what they show, and how they're designed. As has been explained before, they cover a range of future days (6-10 and 8-14, respectively). That means a 6-10 day forecast one week doesn't cover the same dates a week later, or even a day later. Like this:

Last Sunday's 6-10 day forecast covered February 15-19.

Monday's 6-10 day forecast covered February 16-20.

And so on, until today's 6-10 day forecast covers February 22-26.

Now, on top of the shifting date ranges, of course, there's also the fact that any 5-day date range can encompass days that are both above and below normal. As such, they're not the same as a one-day forecast.

At any rate, you can see that the CPC has done pretty well with most of the nation over the past 30 days. Their only real failure was in parts of the Southwest (where they underestimated how warm it would be).

cpc

I hope that helps clear things up for you...
Quoting 1254. Dakster:
Hey BB - How's your weather been?
When you left work on Friday, did you tell your boss, See you next Tuesday?
Something like that :)
The 12z ECMWF brought back the possible severe wx threat with the trough @ 144-168hrs





big noreaster
Quoting 1259. GeorgiaStormz:
The 12z ECMWF brought back the possible severe wx threat with the trough @ 144-168hrs





big noreaster
Another snow storm?.I'm not really believing anything until we're 3 days from the event.
Quoting 1260. washingtonian115:
Another snow storm?.I'm not really believing anything until we're 3 days from the event.


I wouldnt either.. the models have no consistensy at 6-7 days right now.. It's depressing.
Winter Storm Rex is a jets fan and get new York city more snow on Tuesday!!
ECMWF is pushing up to 1500j/kg cape in the SE on friday....would be interesting ...no cross model support
Quoting 1260. washingtonian115:
Another snow storm?.I'm not really believing anything until we're 3 days from the event.
How's your garden doing so far this winter? Has any of your plants died completely?
1265. yoboi
Quoting 1257. Neapolitan:
No, the CPC wasn't wrong. I think the problem is that you're still misunderstanding these maps--what they're for, what they show, and how they're designed. As has been explained before, they cover a range of future days (6-10 and 8-14, respectively). That means a 6-10 day forecast one week doesn't cover the same dates a week later, or even a day later. Like this:

Last Sunday's 6-10 day forecast covered February 15-19.

Monday's 6-10 day forecast covered February 16-20.

And so on, until today's 6-10 day forecast covers February 22-26.

Now, on top of the shifting date ranges, of course, there's also the fact that any 5-day date range can encompass days that are both above and below normal. As such, they're not the same as a one-day forecast.

At any rate, you can see that the CPC has done pretty well with most of the nation over the past 30 days. Their only real failure was in parts of the Southwest (where they underestimated how warm it would be).

cpc

I hope that helps clear things up for you...





I hope this helps.....





Purpose:To present a general picture of the overall drought tendency during the valid period. This is designated for a non-technical audience and is not designed to be a scientific contribution.


Overall CPC is designated for a non-technical audience and is not designed to be a scientific contribution.....By no means am I discouraging you to not link the maps multiple times a day particular during the summer months.....Just wanted to make sure you understand their intended purpose......


Link
BTW spring is coming, my day lilies are beginning to resprout
"show all" suddenly reverted to "show average" and wont stop going back after I change it...is this just me?
Quoting 1266. GeorgiaStormz:
BTW spring is coming, my day lilies are beginning to resprout
By the second half of March nature should really get rock and rolling.
I took insanely amount of pictures from this snowstorm last few days, so I guess here's one of them. I took a hike in Asheville Botanical Garden in 8 inches of snow and took these 4 pictures.

Quoting 1264. Climate175:
How's your garden doing so far this winter? Has any of your plants died completely?
The old ones are completely dead but new ones are beginning to sprout and the crazy trees have full buds beginning to come out on some trees.
A (very) late hello here from miserable old England!
Finally cleaned up the mess made by wednesday's storm today, farewell greenhouse! Things have been more settled this weekend, tomorrow looks a little nasty though. But I think things have started to die down now as temps start to get a little bit warmer, Spring is on the way (not that we even had a proper winter anyway), even saw some Flowers starting to bloom.
Check out this forecast for Mt. Rainier from the NWS, absolutely insane amounts of snow:


Link

If I'm reading that correctly, that's an average forecast around 150 inches of snow tonight through Wednesday night....

That's hard to imagine.
Quoting 1270. washingtonian115:
The old ones are completely dead but new ones are beginning to sprout and the crazy trees have full buds beginning to come out on some trees.
Some of my trees are starting to show dark red buds now.
Quoting 1265. yoboi:





I hope this helps.....





Purpose:To present a general picture of the overall drought tendency during the valid period. This is designated for a non-technical audience and is not designed to be a scientific contribution.


Overall CPC is designated for a non-technical audience and is not designed to be a scientific contribution.....By no means am I discouraging you to not link the maps multiple times a day particular during the summer months.....Just wanted to make sure you understand their intended purpose......


Link


Don't bother, he's a denialist.
Quoting 1030. BahaHurican:
Hmmm.... if you averaged 30 miles a day, you'd still take 3 months to walk from Asbury Park to Crescent City.

EDIT: Minimum 3 months...


Minimum is right, 'cause you know you'd run into someone now and then who wants to buy you drinks and listen to stories...

(When I was heavy training in hapkido out west, I always wanted - if I got a blackbelt - to do the $99 Greyhound special across country partly to celebrate, partly for rite of passage. Someday I'm going to live in one place long enough to get a black belt in *something.*)
1277. yoboi
Quoting 1274. luvtogolf:


Don't bother, he's a denialist.



I figured it was worth a try......
1278. Thrawst
Quoting 1263. GeorgiaStormz:
ECMWF is pushing up to 1500j/kg cape in the SE on friday....would be interesting ...no cross model support


I'm telling you! Its happening. lol
Quoting 1240. BaltimoreBrian:


That one in northwest Indiana is a surprise!



Yeah sometimes the remnant systems can maintain vorticity and shear well inland, although overall the map shows that the tornado danger is highest closer to the coast like many of its other impacts. What's very interesting the startling amount of tornadoes and stronger tornadoes clustered near D.C. along with the lack of tornadoes in Texas.

Interesting for sure. The map also shows that hurricanes do produce stronger tornadoes as well noted by the blue circles.


The SPC study found that the ratio is still lower than non-tropical systems, you can read the study that found about 20% of non-tropical tornadoes are stronger F2 or worse vs about 11% for tropical cyclones. The rate violent tornadoes F4 to F5 is 2% for non-tropical systems and 1% for tropical.


It is remarkable any tornadoes stronger than EF0 to EF1 occur when you consider the fact that tropical cyclone shear is almost all low level shear, and that they do not posses the cold air aloft or CAPE normally required for strong tornadoes.


What's also odd is that it found that while stronger tropical cyclones on average produce more tornadoes, especially stronger ones compared to weaker tropical cyclones, there is very little way of determining which hurricanes will produce many and which ones won't

It noted that some potent hurricanes have produced very few while some hurricanes like Ivan produced tornado outbreaks of over 100.

Definitely interesting I think.
1280. txjac
Quoting 1269. Bluestorm5:
I took insanely amount of pictures from this snowstorm last few days, so I guess here's one of them. I took a hike in Asheville Botanical Garden in 8 inches of snow and took these 4 pictures.



Thanks for sharing. These remind me of the town I grew up in. Thanks for the peaceful memories
Quoting 1036. sar2401:

I'm glad to see a young person is still into trains. I've been a railfan my whole life. I took the Super Chief from LA to Chicago back when it was still the Super Chief and the food was actually good. Rode the California Zephyr, 20th Century Limited, and the Sunset Limited. All gone now, so we're stuck with Amtrak. Still, I'd take a train going anywhere just to be on a train.


There's still a California Zephyr. I took it from Sacramento (I think) to connect with the Coast Starlight (aka Coast StarLate, thank you Southern Pacific) when I was going from Davis to Seattle a few years back. LOVED it. If time wasn't an issue (and someday WHEN time isn't an issue) I shall do more travel by train. Flying, you're all but strip-searched - training, you get tablecloths and real metal flatware in the dining car. And somehow nobody ever goes on a butterknife-stabbing rampage.
Quoting 1108. PedleyCA:


Must be an East coast joke??


Not sure myself.

Besides, I thought it was Niagara Falls.
Quoting 1281. nonblanche:


There's still a California Zephyr. I took it from Sacramento (I think) to connect with the Coast Starlight (aka Coast StarLate, thank you Southern Pacific) when I was going from Davis to Seattle a few years back. LOVED it. If time wasn't an issue (and someday WHEN time isn't an issue) I shall do more travel by train. Flying, you're all but strip-searched - training, you get tablecloths and real metal flatware in the dining car. And somehow nobody ever goes on a butterknife-stabbing rampage.
Haven't ridden the Zephyr all the way to the coast so far, but it's my regular mode of transport to Denver from FL... Only train I like better is SW Chief... the Chief is special...

I was just looking at Denver's inter-modal transport hub in progress and thinking it would be cool to get out there and be able to walk from bus to train to light rail all in a block or so. That is one western city that is taking the transportation challenge seriously and trying to provide its citizens with decent and reliable alternatives to gasoline powered individual transport. People also seem a lot more willing to walk places than we are here in the Sweaty South and the Islands...
Quoting 1283. BahaHurican:
Haven't ridden the Zephyr all the way to the coast so far, but it's my regular mode of transport to Denver from FL... Only train I like better is SW Chief... the Chief is special...

I was just looking at Denver's inter-modal transport hub in progress and thinking it would be cool to get out there and be able to walk from bus to train to light rail all in a block or so. That is one western city that is taking the transportation challenge seriously and trying to provide its citizens with decent and reliable alternatives to gasoline powered individual transport. People also seem a lot more willing to walk places than we are here in the Sweaty South and the Islands...


My only ride on a train was from Burbank to Riverbank and this route isn't all train. Since there is no train over the Ridge route (I-5 corridor) you have to take a bus to Bakersfield or Hanford and then the train from there to Riverbank, I did that a couple of times. Not very glamorous but it was amusing. I hate riding buses so that part wasn't all that much fun. The train part was cool as I had never been on one. The scenery wasn't there and I had seen it all by car anyways.
1285. flsky
Quoting 1283. BahaHurican:
Haven't ridden the Zephyr all the way to the coast so far, but it's my regular mode of transport to Denver from FL... Only train I like better is SW Chief... the Chief is special...

I was just looking at Denver's inter-modal transport hub in progress and thinking it would be cool to get out there and be able to walk from bus to train to light rail all in a block or so. That is one western city that is taking the transportation challenge seriously and trying to provide its citizens with decent and reliable alternatives to gasoline powered individual transport. People also seem a lot more willing to walk places than we are here in the Sweaty South and the Islands...

I love train travel. I've taken the train from CO to Ca and also up and down the CA coast. Especially nice to have your own stateroom.
Quoting 1275. Jedkins01:


Hopefully this will be the start of the battery breakthrough that the electric vehicle industry needs.


BURNING UP ELECTRIC CARS ON LIVE NATIONAL TELEVISION ISN'T THE WAY TO SELL UM!
1287. flsky

Kinda looks like Max Mayfield. Remember him?
Quoting 1286. trunkmonkey:


BURNING UP ELECTRIC CARS ON LIVE NATIONAL TELEVISION ISN'T THE WAY TO SELL UM!



Ok?...
Quoting 1240. BaltimoreBrian:
That one in northwest Indiana is a surprise!


Probably Ike related.
Quoting 1202. washingtonian115:
No you see the local met's are basically telling people that winter is over and they can bring our the short sleeves and hang up the big coats.That is when you have a problem.Their advertising a warm up and all the while falsely advertising winter is done around here.Which is not true at all.


When I lived up there I saw the TV mets were stupid so I never paid any attention to them. I know winter is hard to fcst but I have no idea who such a large market like the District had so many bad mets.
Here's a cool map to me. I'm especially impressed that any tropical cyclone - one from the Pacific no less - could survive all the way to Minnesota with that much moisture.

1292. Dakster
Quoting 1287. flsky:

Kinda looks like Max Mayfield. Remember him?


Kinda, sorta. Although I don't think it is Max Mayfield. (I could be wrong, it isn't like I see him everyday)
Quoting 1291. wxgeek723:
Here's a cool map to me. I'm especially impressed that any tropical cyclone - one from the Pacific no less - could survive all the way to Minnesota with that much moisture.



I bet Alaska is way up on the list when typhoon remnants hit the southern panhandle rainforest.
1294. Dakster
Quoting 1290. CanesfanatUT:


When I lived up there I saw the TV mets were stupid so I never paid any attention to them. I know winter is hard to fcst but I have no idea who such a large market like the District had so many bad mets.


Because all of the good ones or ones that become good get assignments in warm places.
Quoting 1290. CanesfanatUT:


When I lived up there I saw the TV mets were stupid so I never paid any attention to them. I know winter is hard to fcst but I have no idea who such a large market like the District had so many bad mets.


You should read Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise. Has a very informative chapter which goes into how inaccurate local tv 'mets' are.
Meh. Miami is easy.

Hot and Humid, afternoon thunderstorms.
Hot and Humid, afternoon thunderstorms.
Hot and Humid, afternoon thunderstorms.
Hot and Humid, afternoon thunderstorms.
1297. Dakster
Quoting 1296. BaltimoreBrian:
Meh. Miami is easy.

Hot and Humid, afternoon thunderstorms.
Hot and Humid, afternoon thunderstorms.
Hot and Humid, afternoon thunderstorms.
Hot and Humid, afternoon thunderstorms.


Hey hey hey... It's a little more than that. Sometimes we have morning showers too now.
1298. sar2401
Quoting Bluestorm5:
I took insanely amount of pictures from this snowstorm last few days, so I guess here's one of them. I took a hike in Asheville Botanical Garden in 8 inches of snow and took these 4 pictures.


Nice pictures. I used to hike in the Metropolitan Parks in Cleveland after a snowfall when I was young.It was especially nice on a night like this with a full moon. I always wanted to see the snow when it was still white. In those days, the steel mills were running 24 hours a day and pumping out smoke like no young person has ever seen. After about a day, the snow would turn pink...and then green...then black. The amazing thing was we all accepted it as normal.
Pretty much sums up any disagreements.
Quoting 1291. wxgeek723:
Here's a cool map to me. I'm especially impressed that any tropical cyclone - one from the Pacific no less - could survive all the way to Minnesota with that much moisture.


Ahhh Agnes... how I have been told stories of Agnes...
1301. Dakster
And then at 3:55pm it's sunny again.
Quoting 1299. Climate175:
Pretty much sums up any disagreements.
Someone on here about 3 years ago compared Florida's weather to a women's emotions.I remember them saying this

"Their unpredictable and when they get angry they get scary like the weather down here".
1303. Dakster
Quoting 1302. washingtonian115:
Someone on here about 3 years ago compared Florida's weather to a women's emotions.I remember them saying this

"Their unpredictable and when they get angry they get scary like the weather down here".


I heard something a little different, but I can't post it on the open forum...
1304. sar2401
Quoting Jedkins01:
Check out this forecast for Mt. Rainier from the NWS, absolutely insane amounts of snow:


Link

If I'm reading that correctly, that's an average forecast around 150 inches of snow tonight through Wednesday night....

That's hard to imagine.

It happens. This kind of snow occurs in the whole Sierra Nevada/Cascade range. In 1952, the Southern Pacific's crack passenger train, the City of San Francisco, was trapped on Donner Pass, even though it was led by a rotary snow plow. The plow and the train were stuck in 9-12 foot high drifts caused by 90 mph winds and avalanches ahead of and behind them. It took a massive three day rescue effort to remove the passengers and another three days to clear the tracks. The official total for this one storm was 206 inches at Norden, about three miles west of where the train got trapped. This kind of snowfall is one reason why California water shortages can end very rapidly.

1305. nigel20
Good evening/night guys!
1306. nigel20
Quoting 1297. Dakster:


Hey hey hey... It's a little more than that. Sometimes we have morning showers too now.

What about night showers? :)
1307. sar2401
Quoting nonblanche:


There's still a California Zephyr. I took it from Sacramento (I think) to connect with the Coast Starlight (aka Coast StarLate, thank you Southern Pacific) when I was going from Davis to Seattle a few years back. LOVED it. If time wasn't an issue (and someday WHEN time isn't an issue) I shall do more travel by train. Flying, you're all but strip-searched - training, you get tablecloths and real metal flatware in the dining car. And somehow nobody ever goes on a butterknife-stabbing rampage.

Yes, but it's the Amtrak version of the Zephyr. You would have had to ride the real Zephyr, run by the Western Pacific and Denver & Rio Grande, to understand what I mean. Take a look at this 1957 menu to get an idea of what it was like to eat in the diner then.

1308. Rondack
Sobered by near 30 yrs. INside the "IPCC," this "newbie" here wunders:

1) I can't be alone here in seeing a wake-up call in what expert bloggers Burt & Uemura termed "staggering" new ALL-time snow records in Japan, especially as annals start in the 1800'S --- can I?

2) Why would ANY true scientist deny CONUS temps in ALL 9 U.S. climate regions have been COOLING for 20 years? Even NOAA/NCDC data show it, though upward-”adjusted” 'cuz “inconvenient”!

3) “Duh: It's da CYCLES!” From solar to seasonal to tidal to menstrual, etc., they're Nature's #1 trait. Philadelphia & Chicago now are getting buried by record snows. So is Detroit. The '70's bottom of the last cold cycle I see picked here to start a “fewer frigid nights” graph for Detroit. Isn't it ironic a a bankrupt snow-job is dumped while the bankrupt demo town gets record snow dumped on it?

R.
What's this system north of Hawaii? Was this recently tropical, or is it just a very organized subtropical cyclone?



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/flash-vis .html
1311. Thrawst
Quoting 1309. Doom2pro:
What's this system north of Hawaii? Was this recently tropical, or is it just a very organized subtropical cyclone?



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/flash-vis .html


Its an organized extratropical cyclone. Sure is a pretty one though!
Quoting 1308. Rondack:
Sobered by near 30 yrs. INside the "IPCC," this "newbie" here wunders:

1) I can't be alone here in seeing a wake-up call in what expert bloggers Burt & Uemura termed "staggering" new ALL-time snow records in Japan, especially as annals start in the 1800'S --- can I?

2) Why would ANY true scientist deny CONUS temps in ALL 9 U.S. climate regions have been COOLING for 20 years? Even NOAA/NCDC data show it, though upward-”adjusted” 'cuz “inconvenient”!

3) “Duh: It's da CYCLES!” From solar to seasonal to tidal to menstrual, etc., they're Nature's #1 trait. Philadelphia & Chicago now are getting buried by record snows. So is Detroit. The '70's bottom of the last cold cycle I see picked here to start a “fewer frigid nights” graph for Detroit. Isn't it ironic a a bankrupt snow-job is dumped while the bankrupt demo town gets record snow dumped on it?

R.

Tell me more about how winter weather in the winter disproves man-made global warming.

"Saying climate change doesn't exist because it's snowy is like saying the sun doesn't exist because it's night"
Quoting 1285. flsky:

I love train travel. I've taken the train from CO to Ca and also up and down the CA coast. Especially nice to have your own stateroom.
I have been fortunate to have had some very good experiences riding coach on that Zephyr... I've met some decent and interesting folk.

One of these days I'll work up enough gumption to go out there in the winter, so I can see the snow on the mountains.

Quoting 1307. sar2401:

Yes, but it's the Amtrak version of the Zephyr. You would have had to ride the real Zephyr, run by the Western Pacific and Denver & Rio Grande, to understand what I mean. Take a look at this 1957 menu to get an idea of what it was like to eat in the diner then.



Quoting 1308. Rondack:
Sobered by near 30 yrs. INside the "IPCC," this "newbie" here wunders:

1) I can't be alone here in seeing a wake-up call in what expert bloggers Burt & Uemura termed "staggering" new ALL-time snow records in Japan, especially as annals start in the 1800'S --- can I?

2) Why would ANY true scientist deny CONUS temps in ALL 9 U.S. climate regions have been COOLING for 20 years? Even NOAA/NCDC data show it, though upward-”adjusted” 'cuz “inconvenient”!

3) “Duh: It's da CYCLES!” From solar to seasonal to tidal to menstrual, etc., they're Nature's #1 trait. Philadelphia & Chicago now are getting buried by record snows. So is Detroit. The '70's bottom of the last cold cycle I see picked here to start a “fewer frigid nights” graph for Detroit. Isn't it ironic a a bankrupt snow-job is dumped while the bankrupt demo town gets record snow dumped on it?

R.
Member Since: February 15, 2014 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
Quoting 1307. sar2401:

Yes, but it's the Amtrak version of the Zephyr. You would have had to ride the real Zephyr, run by the Western Pacific and Denver & Rio Grande, to understand what I mean. Take a look at this 1957 menu to get an idea of what it was like to eat in the diner then.

For those of us who never had the good fortune, there's still a little wafting of ambiance on the Zephyr... especially if you can have lunch coming through Gore Canyon...

Somehow, though, the Chief makes them look dusty... and this is the Amtrak version of the Chief... ;o)
A pity that iced draught Munich lager is no longer available for 3 pence. Or even 6.
Quoting 1304. sar2401:

It happens. This kind of snow occurs in the whole Sierra Nevada/Cascade range. In 1952, the Southern Pacific's crack passenger train, the City of San Francisco, was trapped on Donner Pass, even though it was led by a rotary snow plow. The plow and the train were stuck in 9-12 foot high drifts caused by 90 mph winds and avalanches ahead of and behind them. It took a massive three day rescue effort to remove the passengers and another three days to clear the tracks. The official total for this one storm was 206 inches at Norden, about three miles west of where the train got trapped. This kind of snowfall is one reason why California water shortages can end very rapidly.




I think the severe weather that occurs in the Northwest is highly downplayed. I've often noticed that its also not uncommon to see 60 to 70 mph winds and 3 to 6 inches of rain along coastal Oregon and Washington. I've seen them get it quite often from strong low pressure systems. Yet its hardly ever covered in media. If it was happening all the time on the gulf coast or up the northeast coast people would be going nuts.
Quoting 1315. BaltimoreBrian:


Hmmm... Amtrak's version of this particular train DEFinitely doesn't live up to its predecessor's rep....
Quoting 1291. wxgeek723:
Here's a cool map to me. I'm especially impressed that any tropical cyclone - one from the Pacific no less - could survive all the way to Minnesota with that much moisture.




Yeah it is amazing, its also amazing that the Pacific Northwest and and Mountain West also have had any from a tropical cyclone.

Florida and Texas for the win, 40 inches in one event, good grief.
There was a pretty healthy tornado in the Willamette Valley of Oregon a few years ago.



The NWS report
1323. KalainH
Quoting 1321. Jedkins01:



Yeah it is amazing, also that the Pacific Northwest and Mountain west and Mountain West also have.

Florida and Texas for the win, 40+ inches in one event, good grief.


Tropical Storm Allison in 2001, Houston, Texas. I wasn't in Texas at the time, but such an extraordinary event. And the only tropical storm name to be retired.


That's approximately 20 feet of water that filled US 59.



And it just was using all this abundant moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and dumping it across south east Texas for about 48 hours.
Quoting 1321. Jedkins01:



Yeah it is amazing, its also amazing that the Pacific Northwest and and Mountain West also have had any from a tropical cyclone.

Florida and Texas for the win, 40 inches in one event, good grief.


Most definitely...looking at the Florida record, can anyone even tell where this storm moved?

Quoting 1324. wxgeek723:
Most definitely...looking at the Florida record, can anyone even tell where this storm moved?



Isn't it easy to tell ;) It's a good thing they had radar tracking by then. You have to wonder how the storm track would have been described if it happened in 1930.
Quoting 1319. Jedkins01:



I think the severe weather that occurs in the Northwest is highly downplayed. I've often noticed that its also not uncommon to see 60 to 70 mph winds and 3 to 6 inches of rain along coastal Oregon and Washington. I've seen them get it quite often from strong low pressure systems. Yet its hardly ever covered in media. If it was happening all the time on the gulf coast or up the northeast coast people would be going nuts.


I agree .. I have between 23 and 26 inches of snow on the ground here and are expecting another 4-5 inches of freezing rain and snow tonight and tomorrow .. has any one heard about it ??

but if it was Washington or NY it would be the talk of the town !!!
Quoting 1321. Jedkins01:



Yeah it is amazing, its also amazing that the Pacific Northwest and and Mountain West also have had any from a tropical cyclone.

Florida and Texas for the win, 40 inches in one event, good grief.
I was just thinking it's gonna be really hard [on TX] to beat that 48 inch record... and what storm was Amelia again???

Quoting 1327. BahaHurican:
I was just thinking it's gonna be really hard [on TX] to beat that 48 inch record... and what storm was Amelia again???



Tropical Storm Amelia (1978)
1329. nigel20
Quoting 1321. Jedkins01:



Yeah it is amazing, its also amazing that the Pacific Northwest and and Mountain West also have had any from a tropical cyclone.

Florida and Texas for the win, 40 inches in one event, good grief.

Yes, amazing. Not uncommon here in Jamaica, but the island is relatively mountainous.
There was a Claudette in 1979 that caused insane rain in TX too, right?
Quoting 1328. wxgeek723:


Tropical Storm Amelia (1978)
Tropical Storm Amelia (1978)
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Tropical Storm Amelia was a weak, poorly organized tropical storm that formed during the 1978 Atlantic hurricane season. It caused a severe flooding disaster in Texas after it dissipated. Amelia developed from a tropical wave that moved through the Atlantic Ocean uneventfully. The disturbance then entered an area of the Gulf of Mexico that was conducive to tropical cyclogenesis and became the first tropical depression of the season, after which it was forecast to make landfall before any significant intensification. However, the tropical depression defied predictions, quickly strengthening into a weak tropical storm just hours before making landfall in Corpus Christi. The storm lasted roughly a day over land before becoming unidentifiable after being active for just under 48 hours.

Amelia affected the Texas coast for two days, causing several shipping incidents and minor damage in Corpus Christi and South Padre Island. While active, there were no deaths linked to the storm. However, the biggest impact from the storm followed its dissipation, when its remnants contributed to record rainfall totals over the state. The state, already suffering from a previous drought, believed that the rain would help alleviate the conditions. However, the dry ground aided the flooding from the storm. The rainfall caused several rivers and creeks to flood, especially around the Texas Hill Country and northern Texas, leading to severe damage. Following the storm, President Jimmy Carter declared six counties in the state as federal disaster areas, allowing residents to seek aid from the government. Additional aid was brought in from as far away as New York. Overall, Amelia caused 33 fatalities with an estimated $110 million in damages in what then-governor Dolph Briscoe called one of the worst floods in the history of the state.
Quoting 1330. BaltimoreBrian:
There was a Claudette in 1979 that caused insane rain in TX too, right?


You betcha
1333. KalainH
Quoting 1330. BaltimoreBrian:
There was a Claudette in 1979 that caused insane rain in TX too, right?


Another one of those slow movers
1334. Dakster
for slow movers what about Faye?
A plane has reportedly been hijacked over Geneva and they won't land until their requests have been given. Only 10 minutes of fuel left.

No media coverage from what I've seen yet.
1336. Gearsts
1337. Dakster
Quoting 1335. TropicalAnalystwx13:
A plane has reportedly been hijacked over Geneva and they won't land until their requests have been given. Only 10 minutes of fuel left.

No media coverage from what I've seen yet.


source?
Quoting 1335. TropicalAnalystwx13:
A plane has reportedly been hijacked over Geneva and they won't land until their requests have been given. Only 10 minutes of fuel left.

No media coverage from what I've seen yet.
Yikes!
1339. nigel20
TS Nicole brought up to 37 inches to Negril (western Jamaica)


Flora in 1963 brought up to 60 inches to Jamaica
Quoting 1334. Dakster:
for slow movers what about Faye?


Don't even
Quoting 1335. TropicalAnalystwx13:
A plane has reportedly been hijacked over Geneva and they won't land until their requests have been given. Only 10 minutes of fuel left.

No media coverage from what I've seen yet.


No major* media coverage. A simple Google search returns dozens of hits, all recent. Let's see what comes of this.
1342. KalainH
Quoting 1335. TropicalAnalystwx13:
A plane has reportedly been hijacked over Geneva and they won't land until their requests have been given. Only 10 minutes of fuel left.

No media coverage from what I've seen yet.


Link

Its currently just circling Geneva. That's extremely unnerving.
We'll see what comes of this Cody :( Astro and I sharing a brainwave.
1344. wxmod
Near Hawaii a few minutes ago. MODIS Aqua satellite photo.

1345. KalainH
The plane landed safely.

"Aircraft apparently cleared for an ILS approach. What could be a hostage negotiator has been heard on the radio
Response to the request will be given by Swiss Authorities on Short Final for landing on Runway 05 (via LiveATC)
AIRCRAFT HAS LANDED SAFELY"

Link
1346. nigel20
Our wettest TC was 1909 Greater Antilles hurricane


up to 135 inches in Silver Hill Plantation.
On the good news note, I will head off to bed...

Sleep tight everyone...
1348. Dakster
glad the plane landed safely.
2008 was such an epic season, whether you were in Brownsville or Bar Harbor, ME you got some kind of action.



Not to mention anomalous systems like Bertha and Marco.
Quoting 1347. BahaHurican:
On the good news note, I will head off to bed...

Sleep tight everyone...


How is that good news?!

P.S. Night Baha.
Quoting 1346. nigel20:
Our wettest TC was 1909 Greater Antilles hurricane


up to 135 inches in Silver Hill Plantation.


Interesting Jamaica was on the left side of the storm, typically the weaker half.
1352. nigel20
Quoting 1347. BahaHurican:
On the good news note, I will head off to bed...

Sleep tight everyone...

Have great night, Baha! I'm also looking forward to the inaugural staging of the world relays. :)
There are reports of an hijacking of an Ethiopian plane which has landed and pilots are coming out the plane's window, it is blowing up all over the social networks. Not Sure what is going on. Just heard it from a meteorologist..
Glad that plane landed safely...
1355. nigel20
Quoting 1351. BaltimoreBrian:


Interesting Jamaica was on the left side of the storm, typically the weaker half.

I wasn't around, so maybe Grothar can provide more info. :)
Quoting 1351. BaltimoreBrian:


Interesting Jamaica was on the left side of the storm, typically the weaker half.


But often the wetter half.
1357. nigel20
Quoting 1349. wxgeek723:
2008 was such an epic season, whether you were in Brownsville or Bar Harbor, ME you got some kind of action.



Not to mention anomalous systems like Bertha and Marco.

The Caribbean was hit hard as well, especially Turks and Caicos, Cayman Islands, Cuba and Hispaniola.
1358. KalainH
Update on the Hijacking of ET702

- Pilots heard on radio stating they will be exiting via the aircraft flight deck window. (via LiveATC)
- Airport/Airspace around Geneva is now closed (via LiveATC)
- Unconfirmed reports the aircraft is parked at the end of Runway 05.
Quoting 1344. wxmod:
Near Hawaii a few minutes ago. MODIS Aqua satellite photo.


Very nicely organized extratropical cyclone. I bet that thing is able to kick up some incredible swells, especially on the North Shore.
Quoting 1357. nigel20:

The Caribbean was hit hard as well, especially Turks and Caicos, Cayman Islands, Cuba and Hispaniola.


A very bad year for Cuba indeed.
1361. sar2401
Quoting KalainH:
The plane landed safely.

"Aircraft apparently cleared for an ILS approach. What could be a hostage negotiator has been heard on the radio
Response to the request will be given by Swiss Authorities on Short Final for landing on Runway 05 (via LiveATC)
AIRCRAFT HAS LANDED SAFELY"

Link

There's no confirmation of a hijacking yet although the flight path makes it clear something is going on. Ethiopian has an unfortunate history with hijackings so at least it's on the ground. The Geneva Cantonal Police has a very effective hostage rescue detail if negotiations fail.
Winter Storm Rex is being a sneaky one.
Quoting 1361. sar2401:

There's no confirmation of a hijacking yet although the flight path makes it clear something is going on. Ethiopian has an unfortunate history with hijackings so at least it's on the ground. The Geneva Cantonal Police has a very effective hostage rescue detail if negotiations fail.


The communication between pilots and tower made it obvious that it was hijackers controlling the pilots so we'll see...
Extreme Weather in Japan on Sunday, 16 February, 2014 at 16:36 (04:36 PM) UTC.
Description
Hundreds of passengers rested on benches and floors under blankets at Haneda airport as public transport services were suspended. Japan’s road, rail and air travel services faced further disruptions on Saturday, reports and officials said, after a fresh snowstorm killed three people and injured 850 others following last week’s deadly blizzard. Snow began falling on Friday morning in the capital Tokyo and piled up to 26cm by early Saturday, a week after the heaviest snowfall in decades left at least 15 people dead and more than 1,200 injured across the nation. A driver was killed on Friday in a crash involving his car and a truck on an icy road in Shiga, central Japan, while a farmer died after a tractor overturned on a snow-covered road in southwestern Oita, local media said. In a separate snow-related accident, a driver was killed and three others injured on an expressway in central Shizuoka, the news reports said. Public broadcaster NHK said some 850 people, including one in a coma, have been injured in snow-related accidents across the nation since snow hit western Japan late on Thursday.

Drivers were struggling to move their cars in the capital’s residential district of Setagaya, while snow started melting and flooding some roads in downtown Tokyo. Television footage showed hundreds of passengers resting on benches and floors under blankets at Haneda airport in Tokyo as public transport services were suspended due to heavy show. At least 628 flights, mostly on domestic routes, were cancelled on Saturday at Haneda and other airports in eastern Japan, NHK said, a day after more than 260 flights were grounded due to heavy snow. Two commuter trains collided at Motosumiyoshi station in Tokyo early on Saturday leaving 19 passengers injured, officials said. The accident occurred as train services were disrupted due to the storm but it was not immediately clear if the collision was directly related to the bad weather. Transport authorities are investigating the case. The storm also caused delays and suspensions on the “shinkansen” bullet train services and the closure of a number of highways across the country. Some 187,000 households lost power mainly in eastern Japan due to snow and strong winds, NHK said. The meteorological agency continued warning of heavy snow in eastern Japan as well as strong winds and high waves along coastal areas, which may cause snowslides. Last week, as much as 27cm of snow was recorded in Tokyo, the capital’s worst snowfall for 45 years. While much of that snow had melted, the remains of larger piles as well as some slightly diminished snowmen were still in evidence across the city.
Quoting 1361. sar2401:

There's no confirmation of a hijacking yet although the flight path makes it clear something is going on. Ethiopian has an unfortunate history with hijackings so at least it's on the ground. The Geneva Cantonal Police has a very effective hostage rescue detail if negotiations fail.

So does the Swiss Army. (yes, they actually have a standing army)
Environment Pollution in USA on Sunday, 16 February, 2014 at 16:38 (04:38 PM) UTC.

Back
Updated: Monday, 17 February, 2014 at 04:19 UTC
Description
An alarm late Friday night indicating higher than usual levels of airborne radiation led to a first-of-its-kind response at a nuclear disposal facility outside of Carlsbad, New Mexico, an Energy Department spokesman said. An air monitor at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant detected the spike in an isolated area half a mile below the ground. The incident prompted an immediate shutoff of filtered air from the facility into the environment around it. "This is the first time we had to close off air filtered by the facility to the outside," Energy Department spokesman Gregory Sahd told CNN. Investigators from the Department of Energy expect test results this week to help determine whether there was a radiation leak. Officials believe there is no danger to the community because it was quickly contained. The radiation was first detected at 11:30 p.m., according to Sahd. He said the facility's ventilation system monitors air quality in real time and automatically switched to "filtration mode" when the possible leak was discovered. Due to the late hour and the location of the incident, Sahd said there was little risk to employees. Those who were inside the above-ground area of the facility responded quickly and remained quarantined until radiological control technicians cleared them to go home. "No one was underground when the alarm went off," Sahd said. "And everyone that was in the facility (at the time), we know where they are and we've tested them." Sahd said there have been no injuries reported, and the area officials believe was affected has been closed off. "We're pretty sure we know where it's at."
1367. sar2401
Quoting Jedkins01:



I think the severe weather that occurs in the Northwest is highly downplayed. I've often noticed that its also not uncommon to see 60 to 70 mph winds and 3 to 6 inches of rain along coastal Oregon and Washington. I've seen them get it quite often from strong low pressure systems. Yet its hardly ever covered in media. If it was happening all the time on the gulf coast or up the northeast coast people would be going nuts.

That's quite true. The infamous "Big Blow" , or Columbus Day strom of 1962 started with a remnant of Typhoon Freda off the Oregon coast. As has happened several times before and since, the low underwent what would be RI if it was a hurricane, and had an official central pressure of 970 mb. There were sustained winds of 130 mph and gusts around 170 mph. The damage to structures and forests in northern California, Oregon, and Washington were about what you'd expect from a cat 3 hurricane, with almost 2 million acres of prime forestland completely destroyed. There was massive flooding, mudslides, and damage to utilities that took weeks and, sometimes months to repair. If this had occurred anywhere on the East Coast, it would be an epic storm still talked about today. Once you get away from the Northwest, this storm is almost completely unknown.
1368. sar2401
Quoting jeffs713:

So does the Swiss Army. (yes, they actually have a standing army)

Yes, they do, and a very large army when need be. However, the police services in each canton are very protective of their territory and will generally handle things like this on their own with perhaps some help from the Federal Police. Switzerland has a long history of the Army staying out of civilian affairs so I'd be surprised if the Army was used in this case.
Pilots did squawked a hijack code (7500) and that can be seen on public site...

http://www.flightradar24.com/ETH702/2ba40ab
1370. sar2401
Quoting Skyepony:
Environment Pollution in USA on Sunday, 16 February, 2014 at 16:38 (04:38 PM) UTC.

Back
Updated: Monday, 17 February, 2014 at 04:19 UTC
Description
An alarm late Friday night indicating higher than usual levels of airborne radiation led to a first-of-its-kind response at a nuclear disposal facility outside of Carlsbad, New Mexico, an Energy Department spokesman said. An air monitor at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant detected the spike in an isolated area half a mile below the ground. The incident prompted an immediate shutoff of filtered air from the facility into the environment around it. "This is the first time we had to close off air filtered by the facility to the outside," Energy Department spokesman Gregory Sahd told CNN. Investigators from the Department of Energy expect test results this week to help determine whether there was a radiation leak. Officials believe there is no danger to the community because it was quickly contained. The radiation was first detected at 11:30 p.m., according to Sahd. He said the facility's ventilation system monitors air quality in real time and automatically switched to "filtration mode" when the possible leak was discovered. Due to the late hour and the location of the incident, Sahd said there was little risk to employees. Those who were inside the above-ground area of the facility responded quickly and remained quarantined until radiological control technicians cleared them to go home. "No one was underground when the alarm went off," Sahd said. "And everyone that was in the facility (at the time), we know where they are and we've tested them." Sahd said there have been no injuries reported, and the area officials believe was affected has been closed off. "We're pretty sure we know where it's at."

This happened two days ago. The apparent leak was underground and none of the radiation reached the surface. It now appears there was a fault with the air monitoring system. All the employes were cleared to leave last night and the waste site is shut down until officials can confirm what happened.
1371. KalainH
Is "forced to proceed" the subtle way of saying we were hijacked?

Press release from Ethiopian Airlines:

"Ethiopian Airlines flight 702 from Addis Ababa to Rome - 17 February, 2014

Ethiopian Airlines flight 702 on scheduled service departing from Addis Ababa at 00:30 (local time) scheduled to arrive in Rome at 04:40 (local time) was forced to proceed to Geneva Airport. Accordingly, the flight has landed safely at Geneva Airport. All passengers and crew are safe at Geneva Airport.

Ethiopian Airlines is making immediate arrangements to fly its esteemed customers on-board the flight to their intended destinations."

Link

Update: They deleted this press release.
1372. sar2401
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Pilots did squawked a hijack code (7500) and that can be seen on public site...

http://www.flightradar24.com/ETH702/2ba40ab

The 7500 code has been activated in error a number of times since the system was instituted. I don't know what happened this time, but the crew does not know when the 7500 code is being squawked, since that would defeat the purpose if hijacker were on the flight deck. The first the crew knows if it was activated in error is when they see a bunch of guys dressed in black with automatic weapons on the tarmac. :-)
Quoting 1361. sar2401:

There's no confirmation of a hijacking yet although the flight path makes it clear something is going on. Ethiopian has an unfortunate history with hijackings so at least it's on the ground. The Geneva Cantonal Police has a very effective hostage rescue detail if negotiations fail.


One of these days sar...you will have to explain how you know so much.

Age and experience doesn't extend this far.
1374. sar2401
Quoting KalainH:
Is "forced to proceed" the subtle way of saying we were hijacked?

Press release from Ethiopian Airlines:

"Ethiopian Airlines flight 702 from Addis Ababa to Rome - 17 February, 2014

Ethiopian Airlines flight 702 on scheduled service departing from Addis Ababa at 00:30 (local time) scheduled to arrive in Rome at 04:40 (local time) was forced to proceed to Geneva Airport. Accordingly, the flight has landed safely at Geneva Airport. All passengers and crew are safe at Geneva Airport.

Ethiopian Airlines is making immediate arrangements to fly its esteemed customers on-board the flight to their intended destinations."

Link

Don't know but that's a very odd press release. It's the first I've seen that the crew and passengers are safe. If true, that would indicate something other than a hijacking or very swift action by the Swiss police, something that's normally not done.
Quoting 1312. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Tell me more about how winter weather in the winter disproves man-made global warming.

"Saying climate change doesn't exist because it's snowy is like saying the sun doesn't exist because it's night"


do not trouble yourself that is what they seek
Quoting 1372. sar2401:

The 7500 code has been activated in error a number of times since the system was instituted. I don't know what happened this time, but the crew does not know when the 7500 code is being squawked, since that would defeat the purpose if hijacker were on the flight deck. The first the crew knows if it was activated in error is when they see a bunch of guys dressed in black with automatic weapons on the tarmac. :-)
Well, we got press release from Ethiopian Airlines saying the place was forced to Switzerland... at least no one is hurt this time.
1378. sar2401
Quoting Astrometeor:


One of these days sar...you will have to explain how you know so much.

Age and experience doesn't extend this far.

LOL. Age and experience count for something, you know. In this case, I was part of a training course to learn Swiss methods of search and rescue, since they are among the world's best. I had two Geneva officers bunk with me for several days and I learned a lot about how Swiss police operate, especially when we were comparing the merits of Swiss vs. US beer. :-)
1379. KalainH
Quoting 1374. sar2401:

Don't know but that's a very odd press release. It's the first I've seen that the crew and passengers are safe. If true, that would indicate something other than a hijacking or very swift action by the Swiss police, something that's normally not done.


It's such a strange situation. All the official channels out of Geneva are mum about it. Pretty much all details are from Twitter. For them to say everyone is safe is abnormal in itself given that they've shut the airspace and diverted all flights. I guess we'll have to wait and see the outcome.
Quoting 1339. nigel20:
TS Nicole brought up to 37 inches to Negril (western Jamaica)


Flora in 1963 brought up to 60 inches to Jamaica


Geeze that's a lot of rain, and note the 100 inches in Cuba, holy crap...

Yes its mountainous down there but part of it is being right in the tropics.

The northeast Yucatan of Mexico had over 60 inches from hurricane Wilma and there are no mountains in that area. The tropics are crazy that way.
And now Ethiopian Airlines removed the press release so who knows...
Quoting 1382. Bluestorm5:
And now Ethiopian Airlines removed the press release so who knows...


I know a lot more will be known in the morning. Get some sleep! I am :)
Hmmmm...

Agnes


Sandy
1385. sar2401
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:



Ah, North by Northwest...great movie. Did anyone else notice as the diner jostled down the track that those flowers in the vase never moved? :-)
Quoting 1385. sar2401:

Ah, North by Northwest...great movie. Did anyone else notice as the diner jostled down the track that those flowers in the vase never moved? :-)
maybe they were glued to the table
1387. nigel20
I have a quick question before bed. I know that the Walker circulation is altered during a warm ENSO phase (El nino). Warmer SSTs in the eastern Pacific and cooler SSTs in the western. Warm moist air and lower pressure in the eastern Pacific. While there is dry dense air and higher pressure in the western Pacific. The westerly trades are also weaker.

Now to the question. Is the Hadley cell also altered in the north Atlantic during a warm ENSO phase?
Quoting 1367. sar2401:

That's quite true. The infamous "Big Blow" , or Columbus Day strom of 1962 started with a remnant of Typhoon Freda off the Oregon coast. As has happened several times before and since, the low underwent what would be RI if it was a hurricane, and had an official central pressure of 970 mb. There were sustained winds of 130 mph and gusts around 170 mph. The damage to structures and forests in northern California, Oregon, and Washington were about what you'd expect from a cat 3 hurricane, with almost 2 million acres of prime forestland completely destroyed. There was massive flooding, mudslides, and damage to utilities that took weeks and, sometimes months to repair. If this had occurred anywhere on the East Coast, it would be an epic storm still talked about today. Once you get away from the Northwest, this storm is almost completely unknown.



Yeah, I'm not really sure I understand why that is, I guess for the same reasons Justin Beaber, a 40 mph tropical storm in Florida, and the "polar vortex" got 100K times the coverage in media as Haiyan in the Philippines did...
Quoting 1367. sar2401:

That's quite true. The infamous "Big Blow" , or Columbus Day strom of 1962 started with a remnant of Typhoon Freda off the Oregon coast. As has happened several times before and since, the low underwent what would be RI if it was a hurricane, and had an official central pressure of 970 mb. There were sustained winds of 130 mph and gusts around 170 mph. The damage to structures and forests in northern California, Oregon, and Washington were about what you'd expect from a cat 3 hurricane, with almost 2 million acres of prime forestland completely destroyed. There was massive flooding, mudslides, and damage to utilities that took weeks and, sometimes months to repair. If this had occurred anywhere on the East Coast, it would be an epic storm still talked about today. Once you get away from the Northwest, this storm is almost completely unknown.


Evidence of this storm is easily visible once you get out of the city and into the woods, especially the virgin forests. There are fallen giants scattered about, with bright gaping holes above them that allow the sun to reach the forest floor. The trails weave around the moss covered behemoths. This storm was so epic it is firmly embedded in the folklore of the region...

In other news, I'm under a Wind Advisory with some pretty reasonable winds (Gusts around 40) but not what was forecasted (Gusts to 55). I'll deal with the rain any day, it's way better than the feet of snow falling in the mountains!
Quoting 1380. sunlinepr:


Look at puny California...I bet they're wishing for that monster to come to them.
1391. sar2401
Quoting Bluestorm5:
And now Ethiopian Airlines removed the press release so who knows...

It's almost as if that was a canned press release that posted before the incident ended. Certainly, it would be highly unusual for any hostage rescue to happen that fast. Now there are about a million theories being circulated as fact on Twitter and the official outlets are saying nothing. We'll just have to wait on this one.
Quoting 1389. Seattleite:


Evidence of this storm is easily visible once you get out of the city and into the woods, especially the virgin forests. There are fallen giants scattered about, with bright gaping holes above them that allow the sun to reach the forest floor. The trails weave around the moss covered behemoths. This storm was so epic it is firmly embedded in the folklore of the region...

In other news, I'm under a Wind Advisory with some pretty reasonable winds (Gusts around 40) but not what was forecasted (Gusts to 55). I'll deal with the rain any day, it's way better than the feet of snow falling in the mountains!



Do you guys ever get sick of the cold rain up there?

I love rain and wet weather, but not when its cold. We get a lot of rain here in Florida but most of it falls during warm tropical weather in the from of heavy showers and thunderstorms that brings relief to muggy air.

We've had quite a few days here this winter with highs in the 40's and 50's and steady rain all day, and I couldn't help but think of how its what goes on the Pacific Northwest all winter and Spring.

I think cold rain is miserable, on the bright side, it leads to beautiful dense forests at least.
1393. sar2401
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
maybe they were glued to the table

Maybe, but the flowers in a vase still jiggle regardless of how the vase is secured.
Quoting 1392. Jedkins01:



Do you guys ever get sick of the cold rain up there?

I love rain and wet weather, but not when its cold. We get a lot of rain here in Florida but most of it falls during warm tropical weather in the from of heavy showers and thunderstorms that brings relief to muggy air.

We've had quite a few days here this winter with highs in the 40's and 50's and steady rain all day, and I couldn't help but think of how its what goes on the Pacific Northwest all winter and Spring.

I think cold rain is miserable, on the bright side, it leads to beautiful dense forests at least.


So Seattle's big secret is that a significant portion of the time our "rain" isn't real rain. It's a mist. Just enough to make wearing glasses annoying. Also, it's only in the 40's from Nov through about Feb. It's 50's from March/April, 60's from May/June, 70's in July then it starts to go back down again. Having said that, there are powerful winter storms that do bring driving heavy rain with strong winds. Which is why only tourists use umbrellas here =)

But no, I really don't mind the weather here. It's consistent, and when you have the proper waterproof gear it's really not bad at all. Also, when it's raining it isn't snowing!

I lived in Tallahasse for 2 years and I must say I do love Florida weather, hurricane parties, and food. However, I do not miss Florida bugs, drivers, culture, and fried UPC's.
Good night everyone.

1396. sar2401
Quoting Seattleite:


Evidence of this storm is easily visible once you get out of the city and into the woods, especially the virgin forests. There are fallen giants scattered about, with bright gaping holes above them that allow the sun to reach the forest floor. The trails weave around the moss covered behemoths. This storm was so epic it is firmly embedded in the folklore of the region...

In other news, I'm under a Wind Advisory with some pretty reasonable winds (Gusts around 40) but not what was forecasted (Gusts to 55). I'll deal with the rain any day, it's way better than the feet of snow falling in the mountains!

I was up there in 2002, almost 40 years to the day, doing a training with the Washington State Explorer Search and Rescue and that's where I first heard about this storm. We had a practice search in the Cascades and, as you say, the forest was amazingly uniform in size since it had all regrown after the storm. We had a near repeat of the 1962 storm in 1995, and I thought that was bad until I saw the size of all those fallen trees.
1397. nigel20
Quoting 1381. Jedkins01:


Geeze that's a lot of rain, and note the 100 inches in Cuba, holy crap...

Yes its mountainous down there but part of it is being right in the tropics.

The northeast Yucatan of Mexico had over 60 inches from hurricane Wilma and there are no mountains in that area. The tropics are crazy that way.

Yes, no doubt! Have a good night and great week, I'm off to bed.
'Snake Salvation' star dies of snakebite
Pentecostal pastor Jamie Coots had said that a passage in the Bible suggests poisonous snakebites would not harm believers as long as they are anointed by God.

Well, I guess he found out that he wasn't. Me, I'll just wait to see if anyone opens the Pearly White Gates after ringing the bell.

On the Ethiopian airline, its in the news too . . .

Weather here in OK has been beautiful the past couple of days. Winter's on hiatus.
Winter Storm Warning just issued for metro Chicago from 9am to 9pm central for 6+ inches of snow with the potential for 2-3 inch per hour rates and thundersnow
1400. sar2401
Quoting daddyjames:
'Snake Salvation' star dies of snakebite
Pentecostal pastor Jamie Coots had said that a passage in the Bible suggests poisonous snakebites would not harm believers as long as they are anointed by God.

Well, I guess he found out that he wasn't. Me, I'll just wait to see if anyone opens the Pearly White Gates after ringing the bell.

On the Ethiopian airline, its in the news too . . .

Weather here in OK has been beautiful the past couple of days. Winter's on hiatus.

Hey, DJ, how have you been? Now the flow of confusing reports is that either the pilot or a hijacker has been arrested and everyone is OK. The same press release is back up on the Ethiopian Air site, so I don't really have a clue about what's happening.

There was another preacher in West Virginia who died last week from snake bite. He was the third generation in his family to die from snake bite. You'd think, after three strikes, the next in line would suspect maybe he wasn't so anointed after all. :-)
Quoting 1390. Astrometeor:


Look at puny California...I bet they're wishing for that monster to come to them.

pretty much
Quoting 1349. wxgeek723:
2008 was such an epic season, whether you were in Brownsville or Bar Harbor, ME you got some kind of action.



Not to mention anomalous systems like Bertha and Marco.


I know a lot of people are going to kill me for this (or maybe not, I dunno), but I would love to see a repeat of that kind of steering pattern set up in 2014. Even if El Nino does develop, if we had 500 mb ridging to the level experienced in 2008, we'd probably still get at least one decent hurricane slip into the lower 48.

Yes I went there. Extreme weather is every weather enthusiast's biggest fantasy. :P
1403. Nimitz
Quoting 1402. KoritheMan:


I know a lot of people are going to kill me for this (or maybe not, I dunno), but I would love to see a repeat of that kind of steering pattern set up in 2014. Even if El Nino does develop, if we had 500 mb ridging to the level experienced in 2008, we'd probably still get at least one decent hurricane slip into the lower 48.

Yes I went there. Extreme weather is every weather enthusiast's biggest fantasy. :P


On the other hand if you happen to live in the direct path of said weather event, fantasy can become nightmare. Just ask the people of the Gulf Coast and New Orleans.
GLOBAL WARMING FOR INDIANAPOLIS IS SURE WORKING!

Feb 16, 2014 3:12 PM
INDIANAPOLIS -

It's now the snowiest winter season on record in Indianapolis.

The National Weather Service says 1.1 inches of snow fell Saturday night and early Sunday in Indianapolis, giving the city a total of 51.6 inches of snow since Dec. 1. The weather service says that make this the snowiest December through February on record in Indianapolis, surpassing the 51 inches of snow recorded in 1981-82.

For the Indianapolis snow year that runs from July 1 to June 30, the weather service says this year is tied for third at 51.7 inches, a mark also recorded in 1995-96. That's 6½ inches off the record of 58.2 inches in 1981-82. The 1977-78 snow year was the second snowiest at 57.9 inches.
1406. LargoFl
Good Morning!!..........................
1407. LargoFl
Quoting 1405. trunkmonkey:
GLOBAL WARMING FOR INDIANAPOLIS IS SURE WORKING!

Feb 16, 2014 3:12 PM
INDIANAPOLIS -

It's now the snowiest winter season on record in Indianapolis.

The National Weather Service says 1.1 inches of snow fell Saturday night and early Sunday in Indianapolis, giving the city a total of 51.6 inches of snow since Dec. 1. The weather service says that make this the snowiest December through February on record in Indianapolis, surpassing the 51 inches of snow recorded in 1981-82.

For the Indianapolis snow year that runs from July 1 to June 30, the weather service says this year is tied for third at 51.7 inches, a mark also recorded in 1995-96. That's 6½ inches off the record of 58.2 inches in 1981-82. The 1977-78 snow year was the second snowiest at 57.9 inches.
yes and FEB isnt over with maybe more snow tonight..stay safe
1408. LargoFl
1409. LargoFl
Happy Presidents Day folks!.........................
1410. MahFL
Quoting 1372. sar2401:

..since that would defeat the purpose if hijacker were on the flight deck. ...


Not all hijackers are familiar with squawk codes lol.
1411. beell


Buoy 41010 went adrift one year ago today. It was just found washed ashore in Carnota, Spain. You can read about it in this link to their paper: bit.ly/1gOWLCe May need to use Google Translate to convert language. Image compliments NWS Melbourne, FL
Link

NDBC/Buoy 41010-120NM East of Cape Canaveral
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailp age&v=7fqCS7Y_kME#t=0
Quoting 1403. Nimitz:


On the other hand if you happen to live in the direct path of said weather event, fantasy can become nightmare. Just ask the people of the Gulf Coast and New Orleans.


Oh that's exactly what he wants...sans the inevitable tragedy
involved. Hit the nail right on the head. Kori lives in Louisiana.
Tomorrow - Feb. 18, what happened to winter?
1416. SuzK
Quoting 1282. nonblanche:


Not sure myself.

Besides, I thought it was Niagara Falls.
Link

Comedy routine from Abbott and Costello, from the 40's
Well it appears Spring/Summer has arrive in FL as temps are expected to rise thru the 80's this week. The come Friday thru early next week the pattern looks more of a early Summer one for FL as afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected. Infact the Euro is showing several inches of rain across C & N FL. So we will need to see if this Euro actually verifies as we could be in for some flooding issues with day after day of torrential rains.

This is a very impressive Kelvin Wave. Looks like what the Euro is showing for a strong El-Nino by the time August arrives may just verify.

1420. Patrap
Iz the ice age over,or jus started ?

TIA.
1421. Patrap
Quoting 1366. Skyepony:
Environment Pollution in USA on Sunday, 16 February, 2014 at 16:38 (04:38 PM) UTC.

Back
Updated: Monday, 17 February, 2014 at 04:19 UTC
Description
An alarm late Friday night indicating higher than usual levels of airborne radiation led to a first-of-its-kind response at a nuclear disposal facility outside of Carlsbad, New Mexico, an Energy Department spokesman said. An air monitor at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant detected the spike in an isolated area half a mile below the ground. The incident prompted an immediate shutoff of filtered air from the facility into the environment around it. "This is the first time we had to close off air filtered by the facility to the outside," Energy Department spokesman Gregory Sahd told CNN. Investigators from the Department of Energy expect test results this week to help determine whether there was a radiation leak. Officials believe there is no danger to the community because it was quickly contained. The radiation was first detected at 11:30 p.m., according to Sahd. He said the facility's ventilation system monitors air quality in real time and automatically switched to "filtration mode" when the possible leak was discovered. Due to the late hour and the location of the incident, Sahd said there was little risk to employees. Those who were inside the above-ground area of the facility responded quickly and remained quarantined until radiological control technicians cleared them to go home. "No one was underground when the alarm went off," Sahd said. "And everyone that was in the facility (at the time), we know where they are and we've tested them." Sahd said there have been no injuries reported, and the area officials believe was affected has been closed off. "We're pretty sure we know where it's at."



"We're pretty sure we know where it's at."
1422. hydrus
1423. pcola57
Quoting 1420. Patrap:
Iz the ice age over,or jus started ?

TIA.


Kinda hard to see Pat..
But since 2007 all has been way below the norm..

Here's the link for Ice extent from Daily Artic ROOS..



1424. ncstorm
Good Morning..

Will check back later for model runs..seems a lot of you guys on here called this last week..great forecasting!!

1425. ncstorm
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 170958
SPC AC 170958

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CST MON FEB 17 2014

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE CENTRAL/ERN U.S. TROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH
THE INITIAL PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. DAY 4 /THU. 2-20/. AS THIS INITIAL TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO PROGRESS QUICKLY NWD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION...WHILE ALLOWING A STRONG/TRAILING COLD FRONT TO MOVE
EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH TIME.

WITHIN A MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR...EXPECT STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON -- FROM SRN IL/ERN MO
SSWWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION...IN A LINEAR CONFIGURATION
NEAR/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GIVEN VERY STRONG FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...IT APPEARS THE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME
RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD BY LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE CONVECTIVE LINE ROLLS EWD. IN ADDITION...A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE -- MAINLY WITH EMBEDDED VORTICES
WITHIN THE LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.

WITH THE FRONT NOW PROGGED TO ADVANCE MORE SLOWLY THAN IN PRIOR
RUNS...SEVERE RISK APPEARS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST
STATES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF DAY 5 /FRI. 2-21/. WHILE THE
STRONGEST ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD SHIFT
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. -- WELL REMOVED FROM THE GREATER
MOISTURE/DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL FARTHER S -- THE STRENGTH OF THE
FLOW FIELD ALOFT SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WIND RISK WILL SPREAD EWD TO
THE MIDDLE AND SRN ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION AS THE CONVECTIVE LINE
DIURNALLY RE-INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

WITH THE BOUNDARY APPEARING LIKELY TO MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY
EARLY EVENING AND THE UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO EXPAND/PERSIST ACROSS
THE ERN U.S. THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...APPRECIABLE SEVERE RISK IS NOT EXPECTED BEYOND DAY 5 OVER
THE CONUS.

..GOSS.. 02/17/2014

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Quoting 1403. Nimitz:


On the other hand if you happen to live in the direct path of said weather event, fantasy can become nightmare. Just ask the people of the Gulf Coast and New Orleans.


So you want a deadly storm to wreak havoc on the young and elderly to satisfy your thirst for extreme weather...let's see how you feel when one slips through to your house where your children are and watch in horror as your roof blows off due to the extreme weather...
Quoting 1424. ncstorm:
Good Morning..

Will check back later for model runs..seems a lot of you guys on here called this last week..great forecasting!!



Spring is here but not for long as long range models plunge the cold air back south next week. Here in FL we should escape it but points north I am sorry.

AQI for the U.S.
From yesterday -if you missed it.
2013 Tornado season
Where's Washi at as she said Mets in Washington DC were saying Winter is done. OUCH!



More snow for NC?
1431. hydrus
Quoting 1427. StormTrackerScott:


Spring is here but not for long as long range models plunge the cold air back south next week. Here in FL we should escape it but points north I am sorry.
GFS is showing up to 8" of snow across western Tennessee.

Cold air (possible winter precip) coming back in 10 days based on the GFS. That could change significantly by then.
Quoting 1430. StormTrackerScott:
Where's Washi at as she said Mets in Washington DC were saying Winter is done. OUCH!



More snow for NC?


Yep, freezing temps coming back to north Fl. towards the end of the month.
Enjoy the balmy weather while it last - which is at least the next 7 days or so.
7 day for Fort Myers
Pretty remarkable for February,even for S.W. FL.
Quoting 1430. StormTrackerScott:
Where's Washi at as she said Mets in Washington DC were saying Winter is done. OUCH!



More snow for NC?


That's just irresponsible meteorology, one should not say winter is over at that latitude until the end of March into April.
Quoting 1436. Jedkins01:


That's just irresponsible meteorology, one should not say winter is over at that latitude until the end of March into April.


Hi Jed, the Euro has an interesting pattern setting up for FL starting on Friday going thru atleast early next week. Looking very stormy. I would post the images but Weatherbell won't allow them to be posted on this blog.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
354 AM EST MON FEB 17 2014

THU-SUN...
ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY WX FEATURE AS THE JET
PATTERN ACRS ERN CONUS ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS TO LIFTING ORIENTATION THRU
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. BOTH GFS/ECMWF MODELS DVLP INDEPENDENT
LOW PRES CELLS OVER THE PLAINS/UPR MIDWEST BY DAYBREAK THU AND
MERGES THEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK FRI. THE RESULTING
STORM SYSTEM WILL CRANK A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE FL PANHANDLE BY
FRI NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS DRAPED OVER
THE S FL PENINSULA AND THE LIFTING JET PUSHING THE STORM CENTER
RAPIDLY INTO NRN CANADA...THE FRONT HAS LITTLE PROSPECT OF MAKING A
CLEAN OR RAPID PASSAGE THRU THE STATE.

INDEED...BOTH GFS/ECMWF MODELS STALL THE FRONT OVER THE FL BIG BEND
BY 00Z SAT BEFORE MEANDERING IT ACRS THE PANHANDLE AND THE NRN
PENINSULA THRU THE WEEKEND. ECMWF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SRN MOST PUSH OF THE FRONT...RESULTING IN POPS
THAT ARE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THE GFS: 40-60PCT
FOR THE FORMER
VS 20/30 FOR THE LATTER. GIVEN THE DLVPG WX PATTERN...AM INCLINED TO
LEAN TOWARD THE MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS SOLUTION WRT POPS AS THE
ANTICIPATED STORM SYSTEM HAS YET TO PINCH OFF FROM THE LARGE LOW
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.

PREVAILING SRLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABV AVG THRU THE WEEKEND...MIN
TEMPS IN THE U50S/M60S WILL BE 10-15F ABV CLIMO...MAX TEMPS IN THE
U70S/M80S WILL BE 5-10F ABV AVG.

&&

Quoting 1417. StormTrackerScott:
Well it appears Spring/Summer has arrive in FL as temps are expected to rise thru the 80's this week. The come Friday thru early next week the pattern looks more of a early Summer one for FL as afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected. Infact the Euro is showing several inches of rain across C & N FL. So we will need to see if this Euro actually verifies as we could be in for some flooding issues with day after day of torrential rains.




What I think is interesting is that nature seems to be pretty good at anticipating such changes. I noticed that here in Tallahassee we've really recently started to look like spring in just the past several days.

Obvious signs of this are sudden flowers blooming everywhere with bees buzzing around them, I've also seen butterflies and carpenter bees around the apartment, something I haven't seen since November. Also some green leaf buds are showing up now on deciduous trees.


What's interesting about this is that I did not see this happen this early here last winter. Much of these signs didn't pop up until March. Its funny because overall this winter has been quite a bit cooler here than last winter. The difference is last winter arrived really late and actually peaked in February.

I wonder if its that after thousands of years and beyond that for survival purposes, biology has become accustomed to responding to certain observable surface conditions that are associated with long term weather patterns. Its interesting because it seems both wild life and plants all over the world are known for having some what of an ability to predict coming pattern changes unintentionally.

Maybe its just coincidence or false correlation, I don't really know for sure.
Here's an update of the severe weather that rolled thru C FL on 2/12/2014

Link
Quoting 1430. StormTrackerScott:
Where's Washi at as she said Mets in Washington DC were saying Winter is done. OUCH!



More snow for NC?
I didn't believe them.I turn the channel after that.I thought the models showed a storm for the 23rd?.They moved in back?.
Thursday next week - storms moving down the state of Fl.
Good morning everybody!

Today: freezing rain and snow; in four days: 60 degree temperatures and severe thunderstorms. Gotta love Ohio weather.


Quoting 1437. StormTrackerScott:


Hi Jed, the Euro has an interesting pattern setting up for FL starting on Friday going thru atleast early next week. Looking very stormy. I would post the images but Weatherbell won't allow them to be posted on this blog.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
354 AM EST MON FEB 17 2014

THU-SUN...
ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY WX FEATURE AS THE JET
PATTERN ACRS ERN CONUS ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS TO LIFTING ORIENTATION THRU
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. BOTH GFS/ECMWF MODELS DVLP INDEPENDENT
LOW PRES CELLS OVER THE PLAINS/UPR MIDWEST BY DAYBREAK THU AND
MERGES THEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK FRI. THE RESULTING
STORM SYSTEM WILL CRANK A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE FL PANHANDLE BY
FRI NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS DRAPED OVER
THE S FL PENINSULA AND THE LIFTING JET PUSHING THE STORM CENTER
RAPIDLY INTO NRN CANADA...THE FRONT HAS LITTLE PROSPECT OF MAKING A
CLEAN OR RAPID PASSAGE THRU THE STATE.

INDEED...BOTH GFS/ECMWF MODELS STALL THE FRONT OVER THE FL BIG BEND
BY 00Z SAT BEFORE MEANDERING IT ACRS THE PANHANDLE AND THE NRN
PENINSULA THRU THE WEEKEND. ECMWF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SRN MOST PUSH OF THE FRONT...RESULTING IN POPS
THAT ARE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THE GFS: 40-60PCT
FOR THE FORMER
VS 20/30 FOR THE LATTER. GIVEN THE DLVPG WX PATTERN...AM INCLINED TO
LEAN TOWARD THE MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS SOLUTION WRT POPS AS THE
ANTICIPATED STORM SYSTEM HAS YET TO PINCH OFF FROM THE LARGE LOW
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.

PREVAILING SRLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABV AVG THRU THE WEEKEND...MIN
TEMPS IN THE U50S/M60S WILL BE 10-15F ABV CLIMO...MAX TEMPS IN THE
U70S/M80S WILL BE 5-10F ABV AVG.

&&



Yeah I've been watching this as well, hopefully it will happen, rainfall is especially appreciated this time of year, even more so given that its been unusually dry this time of year for the past few years in much of Florida. It seems this year is breaking away from that.


In general I've noticed an overall uptick in precip for Florida over the past few years, more like we used to have rather than what seemed like near constant drought for a while several years ago.
when did man made global warming become climate change? All 4 Sunday news shows talked about climate change not global warming. I'm confused. Are humans destroying the earth or not? Seems like there is a debate going on but one side of the debate says there is no debate while debating. The other side of the debate seems to believe this is a government conspiracy to centralize global government. i try to be objective and my head keeps spinning. My objective conclusion is that of course there is climate change (always has been) but how much humans are affecting it is debatable.
Sydney's wettest weekend, in one of its driest summers

Over the past 48 hours, Sydney copped 28mm of rain making it the city's wettest weekend so far this summer. A summer that unfortunately is already doomed with only 12 days left.
The heaviest falls were observed overnight across the North Shore and the Northern Beaches with widespread rainfall reaching 20-30mm. Hornsby registered the wettest 24 hour period throughout the basin with 41mm, accumulating a total of 52mm throughout the weekend. The 22mm at Observatory Hill to 9am this morning adds to the 6mm the previous day, taking the weekend total to 28mm, the wettest weekend since late November.

Although many of us have been complaining how wet it has been and have been praying to the weather gods to bring back summer, we have to put this rainfall in perspective (summer/Autumn is Sydney's wettest period). So far Sydneysiders have had one of the greatest summers on record (unless your livelihood depends on rain!). This summer is comparable to the summer of 2004-2005 which had above average sunshine and more rain, but spread throughout less rainy days.

So far, this summer to date has seen 87mm of rainfall which is only 30% of the seasonal average of 297mm. The 2013-2014 summer has been dry, in fact the driest since 1952 and the 10th driest to date since records began 155 years ago.

Over the next two weeks, these figures could change slightly as showers are on the cards again tomorrow with another low pressure system bringing some more rainfall on Wednesday. One thing is certain, however, the season has now turned.


© Weatherzone 2014
Quoting 1440. washingtonian115:
I didn't believe them.I turn the channel after that.I thought the models showed a storm for the 23rd?.They moved in back?.


Looks like the system on Feb. 23/24 will move out to sea and not up the coast. That would limit any significant snowfall for the mid Atlantic.
It should be too warm in the S.E. for any wintery precipitation.

We'll have to wait for the next system around the end of the month. Looks like some cold air for the Eastcoast.
Weather Observations Website calls for input

Attention all weather buffs.



The call is out for you to contribute to an international weather site - WOW.



The Weather Observation Website is a collaboration between the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the UK's Met office.

It's an online weather community where you can share real time weather observations and photos - very handy if you are planning to go sailing, or want to check on the farm when you are away.

To see for yourself, go here, you'll see a map. Just zoom in to wherever you want to see the weather.
1448. pottery
Quoting toddbizz:


So you want a deadly storm to wreak havoc on the young and elderly to satisfy your thirst for extreme weather...let's see how you feel when one slips through to your house where your children are and watch in horror as your roof blows off due to the extreme weather...


I don't think he said that……...
1449. Patrap
Portlight Disaster Relief

Charleston Conference Review

January 30, Portlight successfully hosted it's second "Getting It Right" event in Charleston, South Carolina. Even with the threat of winter storm Leon, the workshop had a great crowd of emergency management representatives and disability stakeholder organizations. The winter storm reduced the amount of attendees however it served as the perfect framework for the workshop.

The workshop started out with Susan Dooha from CIDNY. Susan discussed her experiences with Hurricane Irene and Sandy, and her recently victory in the lawsuit against the City of New York. Mike Patterson from the Salvation Army discussed his Emergency Planning Committee for People with Functional Needs (EPCPFN) is doing to educate and help people with disabilities. Next we heard Elliot Harkavry who discuss how to get accessibility grants for shelters. Anita Cameron then discussed her personally experiences on a CERT team as a person with a disability. Sue Pniewski, Portlight's New Jersey Coordinator, shared what Portlight has done in New Jersey since hurricane Sandy. Next Marcie Roth, FEMA Office of Disability Integration, spoke about what FEMA does to include people with disabilities. Lastly, Mary Casey-Lockyer and Valerie Cole from the American Red Cross discussed how their shelter accommodate people with disabilities.

Thank you to all who attended the workshop and presented! We will announce the next "Getting It Right" conference soon!


Holly Kasper

Portlight Strategies, Inc.

Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone! It's 61 degrees with a high of 74 later, Spring is sprung!

Breakfast's on the sideboard: beignets smothered in powdered sugar, banana or corn fritters, Pain perdu (French toast) also smothered in powdered sugar, smoked sausage, broiled boudin patties, frittatas with spinach, bacon and cheddar, Eggs Sardou, toast or bagels with creole cream cheese, cheesy grits with shrimp, grillades and grits, crawfish, cheese and mushroom omelets, scrambled eggs with crawfish Étouffée to pour over it, big fluffy biscuits with sausage gravy, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Creole coffee. Enjoy!
We've been over all of this many times; it helps to pay attention.
Quoting 1444. rickdove:
when did man made global warming become climate change?
The two terms are not interchangeable. Global warming is one manifestation of climate change. There are others. But both terms have been used for many, many decades now.
Quoting 1444. rickdove:
All 4 Sunday news shows talked about climate change not global warming.
It's surprising any of the four talked about climate at all; they usually spend 45 minutes each week talking about pretend scandals.
Quoting 1444. rickdove:
I'm confused. Are humans destroying the earth or not?
Yes. Or so say tens of thousands of scientists.
Quoting 1444. rickdove:
Seems like there is a debate going on but one side of the debate says there is no debate while debating.
There is no scientific debate. There are, however, political ideologues and fossil fuel profiteers who wish to stall any change, so they throw up one roadblock after another. These roadblocks are the "debate" you see.
Quoting 1444. rickdove:
The other side of the debate seems to believe this is a government conspiracy to centralize global government.
It's a fantastic conspiracy. Look how the government convinced the ice caps and glaciers to melt, global temperatures to rise, oceans to acidify, extreme weather to worsen, the very seasons to change. Dr. Evil would be envious.
Quoting 1444. rickdove:
i try to be objective and my head keeps spinning. My objective conclusion is that of course there is climate change (always has been) but how much humans are affecting it is debatable.
To some extent. Our burning of fossil fuels--which pumps about 4 million metric tons of pure CO2 into the atmosphere every hour of every day--is contributing to the fastest climate change on record.
1452. Patrap
Quoting 1264. Climate175:
How's your garden doing so far this winter? Has any of your plants died completely?


Unknown till spring (which isn't later this week!).
I lost two "hardy" gardenias that were in pots. But the in ground parent I got the cuttings from in a neighbor's yard which is 10 years old also looks dead. Two others that I followed citrus protocol with along with all of my tender gardenias and all of my citrus are fine. Broccoli and lettuce were killed. Brussels sprouts may have been crushed to death this week by snow. Spinach should do fine. Rosemary in my front yard looks beat up. This is over 20 years old also. My porch pansies were either killed or severely damaged.

1454. LargoFl
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
851 AM EST MON FEB 17 2014

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-172000-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
851 AM EST MON FEB 17 2014

.NOW...THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...A PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR ALL OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S AREAWIDE..

A LOW TO MODERATE RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL EXIST AT AREA BEACHES...
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. IF YOU ENTER THE CHILLY SURF DO SO IN SIGHT
OF A LIFEGUARD AND NEVER SWIM ALONE.

&&

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...INCLUDING GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/BLOG.PHP

$$

TES
Quoting 1202. washingtonian115:
No you see the local met's are basically telling people that winter is over and they can bring our the short sleeves and hang up the big coats.That is when you have a problem.Their advertising a warm up and all the while falsely advertising winter is done around here.Which is not true at all.


It is a matter of perception. The first sign is that an all out Mc Farland Signature arctic outbreak just doesn't have the punch of earlier season ones and my unscientific observation is that happens the last week in February. Cold season crops are vulnerable to -5C so I can't plant transplants of them out until late March unless I want to take a chance. (They can be seeded in late February or early March if the soil can be worked {yeah fat chance this year!!})

None of the epic arctic outbreaks I remember happened in February, all were in January or December but the DC POR record of -15F was set in mid February 1899.

I see the trolls are out again this morning.
NWS Twin Cities ‏@NWSTwinCities · 21 h
Sunshine is allowing for a nice satellite view of a frozen Lake Superior today. #MODIS Link

1458. ncstorm
I posted this yesterday but I want to hear the advocates for GW chime in on this..if you agree with John Kerry?

Is Climate Change a weapon of mass destruction? as I wrote yesterday, it didnt work out so well for the last person who used the saying of weapons of mass destruction to fool the American public..is this fear mongering?


ABC News shared a link.
15 hours ago
"Climate change can now be considered another weapon of mass destruction, perhaps the world’s most fearsome weapon of mass destruction," John Kerry said. http://abcn.ws/1nF3RM1
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 1458. ncstorm:
I posted this yesterday but I want to hear the advocates for GW chime in on this..if you agree with John Kerry?

Is Climate Change a weapon of mass destruction? as I wrote yesterday, it didnt work out so well for the last person who used the saying of weapons of mass destruction to fool the American public..is this fear mongering?


ABC News shared a link.
15 hours ago
"Climate change can now be considered another weapon of mass destruction, perhaps the world%u2019s most fearsome weapon of mass destruction," John Kerry said. http://abcn.ws/1nF3RM1


If the most dire predictions are accurate and we face food shortages, massive societal upheaval and migration from rising sea levels, this is hardly "fear mongering".


1461. Patrap
Really ?

As a USMC Veteran,

I think that's a slight to those Good Americans and the civilians in Country we lost to the Wars created by those who Pushed/Lied, and obfuscated to allow it to occur.

Your False equivalency of words are muted by your intent.


AGW is a Globally shared challenge,and if neglected, will pale any War's.

Dr. Masters timing was excellent once again.
Quoting 1461. Patrap:
AGW is a Globally shared challenge,and if neglected, will pale any War's.
Will pale all wars...combined.
1463. ncstorm
Quoting 1460. Naga5000:


If the most dire predictions are accurate and we face food shortages, massive societal upheaval and migration from rising sea levels, this is hardly "fear mongering".




I thought this was proven science..why would there be an if?..if there is uncertanity then this is fear mongering..
1464. Patrap
You should read mo, and watch TV less maybe.

: )

The Pentagon dosen't think so, as they are moving to prepare as it worsens.

As are the Global Insurance INdustry

Maybe you should do a blog on it?

You know, prove the Consensus wrong and win a Prize.
1465. ncstorm
Quoting 1461. Patrap:
Really ?

As a USMC Veteran,

I think that's a slight to those Good Americans and the civilians in Country we lost to the Wars created by those who Pushed/Lied, and obfuscated to allow it to occur.

Your False equivalency of words are muted by your intent.


AGW is a Globally shared challenge,and if neglected, will pale any War's.

Dr. Masters timing was excellent once again.


no one said anything slighting Americans dying in the Iraq War..so you can calm down..you can be quite dramatic sometimes..

I have family that fought in the Iraq war as well and I take insult at you implying I said something ill towards our veterans..

I was referring to the statement itself as Bush used that as a reason to go in Iraq when there weren't any Weapons of mass destruction..in the same context, Kerry is saying the same thing for the white house to spend billions of dollars for climate change/GW that isnt accepted or agreed upon by all..you don't see the irony in that?

Of course not..why i even asked..


1466. ncstorm
Quoting 1464. Patrap:
You should read mo, and watch TV less maybe.

: )

The Pentagon dosen't think so, as they are moving to prepare as it worsens.

As are the Global Insurance INdustry

Maybe you should do a blog on it?

You know, prove the Consensus wrong and win a Prize.


Or maybe I'll post endless posts with links to GW music videos and appear like I know everything about science..

is there a prize for that?





Quoting 1444. rickdove:
when did man made global warming become climate change?

It's incorrect to imply "global warming became climate change."

Global warming is generally used to refer to the accumulations of heat energy in the climate system (the air, oceans, and ice).

Climate change is generally used to describe changes to climatic averages of various aspects of weather, which is being caused by global warming. The most notable and frequently discussed change is the increase in global average temperature.

The term "climate change" has been used for just as long as "global warming," so implying that there was a "change" is just not accurate:

Google Scholar search results.

NASA also has a write-up discussing climate science terminology.
Skeptical science also discusses the terms climate change and global warming, and why some politicians choose "climate change" over "global warming" for specific reasons.
Quoting 1465. ncstorm:
I was referring to the statement itself as Bush used that as a reason to go in Iraq when there weren't any Weapons of mass destruction..in the same context, Kerry is saying the same thing for the white house to spend billions of dollars for climate change/GW that isnt accepted or agreed upon by all..you don't see the irony in that?
The phantom Iraqi WMDs were dreamt up by a handful of warmongering neocons beginning with Presidents Cheney and Bush. AGW, on the other hand, is a real and serious threat that's corroborated by mountains of solid evidence. There is no comparison whatsoever...
1469. yoboi
Quoting 1468. Neapolitan:
The phantom Iraqi WMDs were dreamt up by a handful of warmongering neocons beginning with Presidents Cheney and Bush. AGW, on the other hand, is a real and serious threat that's corroborated by mountains of solid evidence. There is no comparison whatsoever...



Not really the whole story neap.....they used intel from the clinton administration and UN intel as well....
1470. jpsb
Quoting 1451. Neapolitan:
Our burning of fossil fuels--which pumps about 4 million metric tons of pure CO2 into the atmosphere every hour of every day--is contributing to the fastest climate change on record.


The end of the Younger Dryas, about 11,500 years ago, was particularly abrupt. In Greenland, temperatures rose 10° C (18° F) in a decade

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/abrupt/data4.html


The Younger Dryas saw a rapid return to glacial conditions in the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere between 12,900–11,500 years before present (BP)[5] in sharp contrast to the warming of the preceding interstadial deglaciation. It has been believed that the transitions each occurred over a period of a decade or so,[6] but the onset may have been faster.[7] Thermally fractionated nitrogen and argon isotope data from Greenland ice core GISP2 indicate that the summit of Greenland was ~15°C colder during the Younger Dryas[6] than today. In the UK, coleopteran fossil evidence (from beetles) suggests that mean annual temperature dropped to approximately 5°C,[8] and periglacial conditions prevailed in lowland areas, while icefields and glaciers formed in upland areas.[9] Nothing of the size, extent, or rapidity of this period of abrupt climate change has been experienced since.[5]

http://www.princeton.edu/~achaney/tmve/wiki100k/d ocs/Younger_Dryas.html
Quoting 1463. ncstorm:


I thought this was proven science..why would there be an if?..if there is uncertanity then this is fear mongering..


The science behind AGW is sound. Do not twist my words. If we continue to do nothing the most dire predictions WILL come true. If we do something to curb emissions and try to correct the energy imbalance, maybe not.

You do understand that the future is not set in stone, right?

1472. yoboi
Quoting 1471. Naga5000:


The science behind AGW is sound. Do not twist my words. If we continue to do nothing the most dire predictions WILL come true. If we do something to curb emissions and try to correct the energy imbalance, maybe not.

You do understand that the future is not set in stone, right?




Naga we are still trying to figure out what happened in the past......
Quoting 1472. yoboi:



Naga we are still trying to figure out what happened in the past......


You may be trying to figure things out, but that's because you get your information from Watts, Goddard, hockeyschtick, and Spencer.
1474. Dakster
Another beautifully hot as heck day down here in South Florida...

When is that cold front coming? Is it gonna get us some relief from the heat?
1475. ncstorm
Quoting 1471. Naga5000:


The science behind AGW is sound. Do not twist my words. If we continue to do nothing the most dire predictions WILL come true. If we do something to curb emissions and try to correct the energy imbalance, maybe not.

You do understand that the future is not set in stone, right?



how can i twist your words..you said IF..not I..

I know the future is not set in stone but your climatology models seem to think so..
1476. VR46L
Quoting 1475. ncstorm:


how can i twist your words..you said IF..not I..

I know the future is not set in stone but your climatology models seem to think so..


NC , I think they are missing you on Dr Roods Blog .....
Quoting 1475. ncstorm:


how can i twist your words..you said IF..not I..

I know the future is not set in stone but your climatology models seem to think so..


Then you don't understand the difference between the science behind climate change and future scenario predictions. So you either A) don't comprehend what I said or B) are purposely misrepresenting what I said.

Quoting 1476. VR46L:


NC , I think they are missing you on Dr Roods Blog .....


Not at all, NC is displaying another outstanding lack of reading comprehension. We don't need any more of that on the blog. If you can't distinguish between the science that AGW is based on and future scenario prediction you probably shouldn't be discussing the science.
1479. VR46L
Quoting 1478. Naga5000:


Not at all, NC is displaying another outstanding lack of reading comprehension. We don't need any more of that on the blog. If you can't distinguish between the science that AGW is based on and future scenario prediction you probably shouldn't be discussing the science.


Could have fooled me , BTW are you still calling me a fascist.....
Quoting 1479. VR46L:


Could have fooled me , BTW are you still calling me a fascist.....


Never did, I merely pointed out the group you share an opinion with. see: reading comprehension
1481. VR46L
Quoting 1480. Naga5000:


Never did, I merely pointed out the group you share an opinion with. see: reading comprehension


Really ?

I think you would be better not trying to judge me as you know nothing about my political thinking ....


when you point a finger how many are pointing back at you Just saying .

Quoting 1481. VR46L:


Really ?

I think you would be better not trying to judge me as you know nothing about my political thinking ....


when you point a finger how many are pointing back at you Just saying .



What are you talking even talking about? Have you changed your mind on climate change or do you still share the opinion with those great links Yoboi posted? As for any other opinions you may share, well that's up in the air, as you are right, I don't know anything about you, besides your opinion on climate science.

Man, you sure do read into things too much.
1483. VR46L
Quoting 1482. Naga5000:


What are you talking even talking about? Have you changed your mind on climate change or do you still share the opinion with those great links Yoboi posted? As for any other opinions you may share, well that's up in the air, as you are right, I don't know anything about you, besides your opinion on climate science.

Man, you sure do read into things too much.


I haven't changed my mind ..... But I don't infer anyone is a fascist by reading something on the internet , fascism is a political ideology. I dont run around inferring such things about people I know nothing about unlike some others ...

Anyway bored now ...
1484. DFWdad
Quoting 1471. Naga5000:


The science behind AGW is sound. Do not twist my words. If we continue to do nothing the most dire predictions WILL come true. If we do something to curb emissions and try to correct the energy imbalance, maybe not.

You do understand that the future is not set in stone, right?



I am sad for all of those who believe that the most dire predictions will come true. Not even the scientists believe the most dire predictions will come true. In fact, I am certain they do not call them predictions at all.

Scientists give a range of possibilities, with probabilities that they will occur.

Those, who want to affect policy, who think massive change needs to occur, grab the most dire possibilities and trumpet them. But's that policy making, not science.









1485. yoboi
Quoting 1482. Naga5000:


What are you talking even talking about? Have you changed your mind on climate change or do you still share the opinion with those great links Yoboi posted? As for any other opinions you may share, well that's up in the air, as you are right, I don't know anything about you, besides your opinion on climate science.

Man, you sure do read into things too much.


Glad you think that I share great links.....For a time I had the feeling that you disagreed with them....I am glad that we are learning science together.....