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Dangerous Ice Storm Hitting Southern U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:10 PM GMT on February 11, 2014

A state of emergency has been declared for all of Alabama, Northern Georgia, Northern Mississippi, and Northern Louisiana as the South's second serious winter storm of 2014 spreads snow, sleet, and freezing rain across the region on Tuesday and Wednesday. Freezing rain at a temperature of 29° was falling at 9 am EST Tuesday morning in northern Mississippi in Columbus, and in Birmingham, Alabama, where it was 32°. The storm, called Winter Storm Pax, begins its most dangerous phase Tuesday night into Wednesday, when rain changes to freezing rain from Eastern Georgia through Central South Carolina. As much as 1" of freezing rain is expected in Augusta, Georgia and Columbia, South Carolina, and widespread power outages would result if these ice amounts materialize. Atlanta, Georgia, which was shut down by the 2.6" of snow Winter Storm Leon brought to the city on January 28, is expected to receive a nasty mix of freezing rain, snow, and sleet Tuesday night and Wednesday from the new storm, making travel dangerous or impossible. Just a slight shift in the track of the storm or atmospheric conditions could greatly alter the amount of snow and freezing rain this storm brings, and residents impacted by this storm should follow the latest forecast updates. One positive aspect: the cold air behind this storm will be short-lived, and high temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 40s by Thursday across South Carolina and Northern Georgia.


Figure 1. Predicted freezing rain amounts for the period ending at 6 pm CST Wednesday, February 12, 2014. Image credit: National Weather Service Southern Region.

Heavy snow for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast Wednesday night and Thursday
The storm will move up the Eastern Seaboard Wednesday night into Thursday, potentially bringing six or more inches of snow to major East Coast cities, including Washington D.C., Baltimore, New York City, and Philadelphia. However, depending upon the exact track of the storm, rain may mix with the snow near the coast, resulting in snowfall amounts under six inches in New York City. The winds from the storm are not going to be strong by Nor'easter standards, and only minor coastal flooding is expected from the storm. In Philadelphia, where 6 - 10" of snow are predicted, the storm could set a bit of history. If Philadelphia International Airport receives 6 inches or more of snow from this system, it would be the first time since record keeping began during the winter of 1884-5 that Philadelphia has had four separate six inch or greater snowstorms in a winter.


Figure 2. Remote-controlled robot snowplow, available for $7,900 from superdroidrobots.com.

Robot snow shoveling help?
For those of you with a little extra disposable income who are sick of shoveling this winter's epic snows, check out this 393-pound remote-controlled robot snowplow, available for $7,900 from superdroidrobots.com. I like my robot vacuum cleaner, but I have my doubts that I'll be buying a robot snowplow!


Video 1. An avalanche sweeps down a mountainside in the South Tyrol region of the Alps on February 6, 2014. Thomas Ennemoser, a farmer from Orsteil Pill, filmed from a safe distance on a hill. The avalanche damaged several buildings, and 15 people were forced to evacuate.

Jeff Masters

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

We are getting light freezing rain/pellets. Got a call to reschedule my husbands surgery till next Wednesday. Starting to get light outside and you can see the ice everywhere. I was supposed to be off work for his surgery and work has been cancelled till 11:00 today. Don't think it will be much better by then.
Quoting 1000. sar2401:

I can tell this has never happened to you before.
Indeed. I suppose when the primary side effect of an extreme weather event impacting your area is a day or two home from school, your perspective is likely to be a little skewed. It's when you're the one who has to work--who has to drive, who has to pay insurance on vehicles and homes and businesses, who has to keep a family sheltered and fed and safe, etc.--that you start crossing your fingers in the hopes that things won't be as bad as they're forecast to be..
1003. VR46L
I don't think I can take much more of this

Two days time




Presently



But My what a beauty
I think this may be the last big snowstorm for the winter for me. It is gonna warm up dramatically in the coming weeks.
Quoting 995. afweatherguy86:
Augusta Regional now reporting a total of 0.41" of freezing rain already... unbelievable.

KAGS 121121Z AUTO 05012KT 5SM FZRA BR SCT014 BKN021 OVC034 M01/M02 A3026 RMK AO2 P0005 I1002 T10061022

KAGS 121053Z AUTO 06011KT 5SM FZRA BR SCT016 OVC035 M01/M02 A3026 RMK AO2 UPB47E51FZRAE47B51 SLP247 P0009 I1003 T10061022

KAGS 120953Z AUTO 05009KT 5SM FZRA BR FEW015 OVC036 M01/M02 A3026 RMK AO2 SLP247 P0012 I1004 T10061022

KAGS 120853Z AUTO 07012KT 5SM FZRA BR FEW014 OVC036 M01/M02 A3026 RMK AO2 RAE09UPB09E21FZRAB21 SLP247 P0015 60025 I1002 I3002 T10061022 56009




Still dark out, but I can see the layer of ice on the tops of the tall trees in Augusta. Definitely going to be power outages.
1006. sar2401
Quoting NEWilmNCTP:
We are getting light freezing rain/pellets. Got a call to reschedule my husbands surgery till next Wednesday. Starting to get light outside and you can see the ice everywhere. I was supposed to be off work for his surgery and work has been cancelled till 11:00 today. Don't think it will be much better by then.

Given that you are right on the edge of ice and the low in the Gulf will be moving north toward you later today and tonight, I hope you can just not go to work today. If you do, you might get stranded there.
1007. Dakster
Quoting 993. daddyjames:


Week? At least, perhaps longer. Espsecially the amounts they were forecasting.


And as widespread as the outages could be, crews are going to be stretched thin and be really busy.

I wish all in the path of this good luck and that they stay safe.
Morning all.

I decided to bring the live feed up for a while from Charleston SC, where we've already had more ice than expected.

Areas to our north are getting hammered.
Quoting 1001. NEWilmNCTP:
We are getting light freezing rain/pellets. Got a call to reschedule my husbands surgery till next Wednesday. Starting to get light outside and you can see the ice everywhere. I was supposed to be off work for his surgery and work has been cancelled till 11:00 today. Don't think it will be much better by then.


You are right, will likely continue to deteriorate before improving sometime Thursday.
Quoting 1005. Thunderfan:


Still dark out, but I can see the layer of ice on the tops of the tall trees in Augusta. Definitely going to be power outages.


Stay safe, it's gonna be a long day.



Winter Storm Warning



Mobile & Email Alerts
Statement as of 3:28 AM EST on February 12, 2014


... Winter Storm Warning in effect from midnight tonight to 6 am
EST Friday...

The National Weather Service in New York has issued a Winter
Storm Warning for heavy snow... which is in effect from midnight
tonight to 6 am EST Friday. The Winter Storm Watch is no longer in
effect.

* Locations... southern Fairfield... southern New Haven.

* Hazard types... snow and sleet.

* Accumulations... 6 to 10 inches.

* Winds... northeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Temperatures... in the upper 20s.

* Visibilities... one quarter mile or less at times.

* Timing... snow will develop late tonight and continue during the
day Thursday before tapering off Thursday night. Sleet and rain
will likely mix with the snow on Thursday.

* Impacts... snowfall will make travel treacherous. In
addition... heavy... wet snow may cause some weak... flat roof
structures to collapse and trees will be susceptible to falling.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow
are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an
emergency. If you must travel... keep an extra flashlight... food...
and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

1012. sar2401
Quoting VR46L:
I don't think I can take much more of this

Two days time




Presently



But My what a beauty

Sure looks like the UK gets pounded by low after low. The one that's going to be moving up the east coast later today and then over to you in a couple of days is a real doozy. I hope you stay safe.

Partly Cloudy

Guilford, CT

3.9 °F Partly Cloudy


New Haven | Partly Cloudy | 8 °F
Chester | Clear | 9 °F
Meriden | Clear | 5 °F


Nearby Weather Stations

Bishops Orchards-Meadow Ridge | 7.2 °F
Orcutt | 3.9 °F
Bishop's Orchards | 9.1 °F

I am happy the snow storm is not coming this morning its so cold in the northeast we will have 30 inches of snow!!
Joanne Feldman FOX 5 ‏@JoanneFOX5 6m
One more indication of how unusual this is: per @NWSAtlanta, their weather balloon iced up too much and they lost it at 600mb. #fox5storm
wraparound on gfs and ecwmf was great, nam not so much.. should get a better handle on the coming snow through the day.
Quoting 992. GeorgiaStormz:


wouldn't mind losing power for a long time


LOL - said until one experiences a long period of cold showers, no heat, not being able to make coffee (gasp! Oh the humanity . . . ), or cook anything warm to eat . . .
So I decided to go out and be adventurous this morning when a strong gust came and knocked down a bunch of tree limbs and one big tree limb right in front of me. I guess I can say I will be inside and watching this ice storm do it's business. Stay safe guys I'm just waiting for the power outage that I'm sure I'm gonna get.
6z gave 3-6" wraparound with up to 10"




about half of 12" is probably ice


about 10k power outages now
Quoting 1016. daddyjames:


LOL - said until one experiences a long period of cold showers, no heat, not being able to make coffee (gasp! Oh the humanity . . . ), or cook anything warm to eat . . .


This is why I bought a french press, a kettle to boil water and a camping stove with several tanks: I'm not sure I, or anyone else, would survive with out the coffee!!
Good morning

It's 77, going for a high of 85 today. Busy day here on the island with 5 ships in so I think I'll just stay in my little corner and not go anywhere!

With reference to all the weather happening, I'd just like to say that I lived through the Ice Storm of '98. Two weeks without power was an absolute nightmare, especially with two little ones to deal with. For years after, every time I heard "freezing rain" in the forecast, my heart would start pounding and I'd feel the onset of what I believe was a panic attack happening.

The damage that was done was beyond comprehension and to this day I still shake my head in disbelief.

To all those who are going to be affected by this storm, especially the freezing rain, I'll be thinking about you and HOPING that you heeded the warnings and are as ready as you can possibly be for the days ahead.

Take care everyone

Lindy
1021. LargoFl
Quoting 999. GeorgiaStormz:
Looks fun in fl

I do hope NO waterspouts decide to come ashore today when this bad line of storms hits us later today
1022. MahFL
"IF RESIDENTS HAVE NOT COMPLETED THEIR PREPARATIONS IT MAY BE
TOO LATE."


In other words, your screwed to living in misery for a day or 3...
1023. Dakster
Quoting 1016. daddyjames:


LOL - said until one experiences a long period of cold showers, no heat, not being able to make coffee (gasp! Oh the humanity . . . ), or cook anything warm to eat . . .


Living without power stinks... Camping it's expected, living at home not so much.

Unless you have the coin for a whole house generator. And the coin to run it. Until you do, you really don't appreciate how cheap "grid" power really is.
1024. nash36
Made it to work. What a freaking mess it is out there in North Charleston this morning!

Thankfully, as was the case two weeks ago, the ground isn't cold enough for the water to freeze.

The bridges, on the other hand, are screwed. Most are closed now.
Outside is torrential sleet, 1/10" ice, .5" sleet, and winds gusting to 50mph... occasional snowflakes mixing with the sleet, but no liquid precip that i can tell.

Icing isnt increasing then.
I was suppose to be preparing to go up north by now..THANKS nature -_-.
1027. sar2401
Quoting LargoFl:
I do hope NO waterspouts decide to come ashore today when this bad line of storms hits us later today

I don't think it's going to be later this evening. More like 1:00 this afternoon. This low is racing NE at a good clip so I can't see how this mess will take 12 more hours to get to Florida.
1028. LargoFl
Quoting 1024. nash36:
Made it to work. What a freaking mess it is out there in North Charleston this morning!

Thankfully, as was the case two weeks ago, the ground isn't cold enough for the water to freeze.

The bridges, on the other hand, are screwed. Most are closed now.
I hope you dont get stranded there tonight..its only going to get worse as the day rolls on and that Low gets closer
1029. JNTenne
Quoting 1017. GAWeather09:
So I decided to go out and be adventurous this morning when a strong gust came and knocked down a bunch of tree limbs and one big tree limb right in front of me. I guess I can say I will be inside and watching this ice storm do it's business. Stay safe guys I'm just waiting for the power outage that I'm sure I'm gonna get.
Thank God you where not underneath those branches! (did you get pictures??)
1030. sar2401
Quoting washingtonian115:
I was suppose to be preparing to go up north by now..THANKS nature -_-.

Hey Wash, you wanted to see a winter storm in DC. Mother Nature is just giving you what you wanted. :-)
1031. LargoFl
Quoting 1027. sar2401:

I don't think it's going to be later this evening. More like 1:00 this afternoon. This low is racing NE at a good clip so I can't see how this mess will take 12 more hours to get to Florida.
well right now here its solid overcast and foggy..you can just tell something is coming
1032. MahFL
SCEG outages just about doubled on the 7:31 am update.

SCEG outages
according to hrrr, precip will take a break as precip from al moves east.

dry slot moves in at 13:30 utc (1 hour away)


then we move towards wraparound





Quoting 1016. daddyjames:


LOL - said until one experiences a long period of cold showers, no heat, not being able to make coffee (gasp! Oh the humanity . . . ), or cook anything warm to eat . . .


Or when the pipes freeze and you can't get water, and then to add to the misery, the sump pump in your basement can't work and you have to bail water for hours at a time, three or four times a day, for weeks.....oh, my... *shakes head*

Lindy
1035. LargoFl
Thurs morning you folks will be dealing with a strong Nor'easter..wow...
Quoting 980. Sfloridacat5:


Sleet is 100% better than freezing rain. Sleet also accumulates if its heavy.


In January 1979 at Penn State (State College) we got three inches of ice pellets. They stung one's face outside and walking in them was like walking in sticky wet sand. Cars dug in and got stuck in semisolid ruts on the road. The best analogy is getting stuck in beach sand.
Getting reports of sleet changing to snow in Woodstock and Canton right nonw..... and WSB maps are showing 4-6" across ATL north, with some areas to the southwest and north receiving 7+. 9" bullesye near Rome
Quoting 1030. sar2401:

Hey Wash, you wanted to see a winter storm in DC. Mother Nature is just giving you what you wanted. :-)
Well nature can take this snow storm and shove it (Censored due to blog rules)
1039. LargoFl
Midlantic to the northeast the time to prepare is right now...
1040. MahFL
In downtown JAX it's foggy and windy, which is never a good sign. The wind is coming from the NE.
1041. LargoFl
Just look at the size of this Nor'easter wow.....
1042. nash36
Quoting 1028. LargoFl:
I hope you dont get stranded there tonight..its only going to get worse as the day rolls on and that Low gets closer


I'll be off at 2:30 and the temp will be above freezing in a few hrs. If anything refreezes tonight, I'll be home and safe anyhow. It's all good. :-)
Quoting 1037. TheOnlyBravesFan:
Getting reports of sleet changing to snow in Woodstock and Canton right nonw..... and WSB maps are showing 4-6" across ATL north, with some areas to the southwest and north receiving 7+. 9" bullesye near Rome


snowflakes mixing in here a little.

prob will wait till wraparound
Quoting 1034. VirginIslandsVisitor:


Or when the pipes freeze and you can't get water, and then to add to the misery, the sump pump in your basement can't work and you have to bail water for hours at a time, three or four times a day, for weeks.....oh, my... *shakes head*

Lindy


I had the sump pump part happen in 1994 due to a frozen discharge. Never lost power in the house long enough though to worry about frozen pipes. I now have a battery backup pump. My current house has a woodstove so we still have heat and cooking if we lose power.
Quoting 1036. georgevandenberghe:


In January 1979 at Penn State (State College) we got three inches of ice pellets. They stung one's face outside and walking in them was like walking in sticky wet sand. Cars dug in and got stuck in semisolid ruts on the road. The best analogy is getting stuck in beach sand.


Yeah, except the beach sand doesn't semi-melt then refreeze overnight into a solid block of ice :D.
1046. LargoFl
qpf on rap after precip changes to snow in N GA



great wraparound.. cant wait
1048. LargoFl
Quoting 1000. sar2401:

I can tell this has never happened to you before.


we got ice before, but i dont remember much of it since I was little, and we did lose power. will only be 27F tonight, 60s by the weekend.

I'm not overly dramatic though, I can handle losing power.
I just have a strange enjoyment of things that others consider not fun.
1050. sar2401
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
according to hrrr, precip will take a break as precip from al moves east.

dry slot moves in at 13:30 utc (1 hour away)


then we move towards wraparound






The HRRR is already wrong. What it shows for 15:30 UTC is already happening. The evolution shown by that model is at least five hours too slow.
1051. ncstorm
Ice Everywhere here..
1052. sar2401
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


we got ice before, but i dont remember much of it since I was little, and we did lose power. will only be 27F tonight, 60s by the weekend.

I'm not overly dramatic though, I can handle losing power.
I just have a strange enjoyment of things that others consider not fun.

You'll have fun then. Be sure to write when you get your internet back and your cell phone starts working again.
1053. LargoFl
Quoting 1042. nash36:


I'll be off at 2:30 and the temp will be above freezing in a few hrs. If anything refreezes tonight, I'll be home and safe anyhow. It's all good. :-)


Latest discussion says we will be popping in and out of the magic freeze number most of the day, except for a couple hours in the afternoon. Going to be interesting to see how much ice we get. Tonight could be worse; it's all going to depend on temps. So far, they have over shot temps just a hair.

You stop by the live feed?
1056. LargoFl
1057. sar2401
Quoting LargoFl:

Look at the current radar, Largo. What's supposed to happen on the simulated radar at 1:00 EST is happening right now.
Beth McLeod ‏@BethHMcLeod 2m
“@drbTV: @BethHMcLeod .25" ice / .50" sleet so far in city of #Atlanta #11Alive #gawx” oh my! That's awful!
View conversation Reply Retweet Favorite More


MGM ‏@mmorrison2626 2m
“@wxbrad: Eastern GA upgraded to a SPI Ice Strom index of 5/5. #gawx” ~ Not good!!
1059. ncstorm
I am still having issues with this terrible view I am getting on WU..emailed admin and havent heard anything..

anyway, the WRF is showing snow for me on the back end..woohoo..hope it happens


Quoting 1052. sar2401:

You'll have fun then. Be sure to write when you get your internet back and your cell phone starts working again.


love to.
1061. nash36
Quoting 1055. StormJunkie:


Latest discussion says we will be popping in and out of the magic freeze number most of the day, except for a couple hours in the afternoon. Going to be interesting to see how much ice we get. Tonight could be worse; it's all going to depend on temps. So far, they have over shot temps just a hair.

You stop by the live feed?


Yeah. I've seen lows progged anywhere from 36 (too high in my opinion) to 30 and 31 again tonight. If we end up at 30 again all night, we're in deep caca tomorrow morning.

Not yet with the feed. Trying to get through 5,000 emails AND keep up with you guys:-) Glad you got through your night safely SJ.
1062. JNTenne
NOAA's GOES-East satellite captured this image of a storm over the southeastern U.S. on Feb. 11, 2014 at 1:15 p.m. EST (1815 UTC).
Credit: NOAA
Quoting 1050. sar2401:

The HRRR is already wrong. What it shows for 15:30 UTC is already happening. The evolution shown by that model is at least five hours too slow.


no the dry slot moves in at 13:30...i just posted 15:30 as the first frame of note
Went for a walk around the house and got sandblasted...winds have got to be up near 30mph gusting. feels colder than when it was 2F with the sleet and wind
1065. sar2401
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


no the dry slot moves in at 13:30...i just posted 15:30 as the first frame of note

OK, it's 13:09 now. Let me know how dry you get.
TWC Breaking ‏@TWCBreaking 6m
Heavy, blowing snow reported by emergency management in Dawson County, Ga. (north-central Ga.). #Pax

2 tiers of counties to my north
1067. LargoFl
Quoting 1065. sar2401:

OK, it's 13:09 now. Let me know how dry you get.


Dry slot isnt that dry..there is still light precip

matches up quite well, note in N AL

precip developing there falls apart in a couple hours per hrrr before more develops

Quoting 979. yonzabam:
UK Met Office has issued a rare 'red alert' warning for 100 mph winds on coastal Wales.


Just saw that before coming on here. Will see if it ends up anything worse than the last huge one like that, as they didn't put red warning and was gusting 100+ at the worst spots (and that isn't terribly uncommon TBH) I think with all the storm after storm and now media attention for the flooding in the South, they actually feel like they need to up the warnings maybe? As just like Scotland, is pretty much par for course here in N Wales. Just wish could get a few weeks long dry out, these leaks are getting SO bad and dunno when builder will be back around :/ 3rd attempt lucky hopefully as nothing he's done has made them better, just worse really! LOL

Internet going on and off, so if not on later, hope everyone round these parts and out with the snow and ice in the US have as smooth a ride of it as possible...sans any smooth sliding in your car obvs!

Guess, long ago now are the days when the Doc's blog was quiet during the winter! Cheers all
1070. LargoFl
Schools maybe getting out early today in Orlando in preparation for this weather moving in.


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014

VALID 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF FL PENINSULA...

...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL/ERN CONUS...AND ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC REGIME ACROSS
W COAST. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY
FROM AR TO SE TX AND NERN MEX...AS WELL AS FROM ERN SD SSWWD
ACROSS-CENTRAL NEB AND WRN/CENTRAL KS. FASTER MOVEMENT OF TRAILING
PERTURBATION WILL RESULT IN ESSENTIALLY PHASED/STRONGER TROUGH
MOVING EWD ACROSS SERN CONUS THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...THOUGH
ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMA MAY REMAIN DISTINCT. BY 12Z...500-MB
LOW MAY DEVELOP OVER SRN APPALACHIANS REGION WITH HIGH-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS GA...ERN PORTIONS FL
PANHANDLE...ERN NERN GULF.

AT SFC...11Z ANALYSIS INDICATED FRONTAL-WAVE LOW JUST OFF WRN FL
PANHANDLE COAST...AND COLD FRONT SWWD OVER CENTRAL/SWRN GULF. THIS
LOW SHOULD TRAVEL ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN FL PANHANDLE THEN
OFFSHORE GA...AS ANOTHER CYCLONE DEEPENS FARTHER NE ALONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE OVER ATLC. BY END OF PERIOD...ERN LOW SHOULD BECOME
PREDOMINANT INVOF NC OUTER BANKS..WITH COLD FRONT SSWWD ACROSS
ERN/SRN FL PENINSULA. AT 11Z TWO WARM FRONTS WERE DRAWN--
1. SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY DEMARCATING COLDEST CONTINENTAL AIR FROM PARTLY
MODIFIED C.P. TRAJECTORIES THAT FOLLOWED PRIOR FROPA. THIS BOUNDARY
EXTENDED FROM LOW ESEWD NEAR BUOY 42036...BECOMING WEAK COLD FRONT
FOLLOWED BY NLY/NELY FLOW OVER CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. OVERLAND PART
OF THIS FRONT IS DECELERATING...AS WINDS TO ITS N VEER TOWARD MORE
ELY COMPONENT WITH DEPARTURE OF WEAK ATLC LOW AND APCH OF
FRONTAL-WAVE SYSTEM.
2. MARINE FRONT DENOTING NRN EDGE OF MOST COMPLETELY MODIFIED
MARITIME AIR...EXTENDING SEWD FROM LOW ACROSS E-CENTRAL GULF THEN
EWD OVER PORTIONS KEYS/STRAITS. THIS BOUNDARY AND RELATED AIR MASS
MAY REACH PORTIONS WRN/SRN FL FROM LATE AFTN INTO EVENING...PRIOR TO
PASSAGE OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND AND COLD FRONT.

...FL...
SVR THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT GREATER AND BETTER-ORGANIZED THAN IN
PRIOR OUTLOOKS...WARRANTING UPGRADED PROBABILITIES. PRIMARY THREAT
IS DAMAGING GUSTS...BUT TORNADO POTENTIAL NOW APPEARS AT LEAST MRGL
IN NATURE OVER MUCH OF PENINSULA.


MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE WELL-ORGANIZED OVER NERN GULF FOR
MANY HOURS BEFORE MOVING ASHORE AND INTO STILL-MOISTENING AIR MASS
OVER FL PENINSULA...AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT. MAIN UNCERTAINTY...AND
MOST LIMITING FACTOR FOR SVR RISK...REMAINS RATE OF PRECONVECTIVE
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY NE OF AFOREMENTIONED MARINE
FRONT. STILL...ONCE DAYTIME MIXING/DRYING EFFECTS OF INLAND
BOUNDARY LAYER ARE QUELLED BY COMBINATION OF MOIST ADVECTION AND
LOSS OF INSOLATION...NARROW WEDGE OF MID-UPPER 60S F SFC DEW POINTS
ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR N AS CENTRAL FL PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF MAIN TSTM
LINE
. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS WOULD SUPPORT SFC-BASED
INFLOW...WITH MINIMALLY INHIBITED MLCAPE TO 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE.
VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH TIME WILL MITIGATE GREATER VERTICAL
SHEAR...THOUGH SUPPORTIVE LOW-LEVEL SRH IS INDICATED FOR BOW/LEWP
FORMATION AND AT LEAST TRANSIENT SUPERCELL ORGANIZATION WITH ANY
SUSTAINED/DISCRETE TSTMS. VEERING SFC FLOW ALSO WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH PROXIMITY TO SRN/MARINE FRONT..AND MAY ADVECT RICHER SERN-GULF
MOISTURE INLAND.

AHEAD OF MAIN TSTM AREA...SEPARATE CLUSTER OR BAND OF CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP OVER ERN GULF AND OFFSHORE SWRN FL/KEYS...MOVING NEWD TO EWD
OVER CENTRAL/S FL. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR EACH ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT FROM S-CENTRAL PENINSULA THROUGH
KEYS/STRAITS...SOME ACTIVITY THAT FAR S MAY PRODUCE GUSTS APCHG SVR
LIMITS.

FARTHER N ACROSS NRN PENINSULA AND COASTAL BEND REGION...SUBSTANTIAL
SFC DESTABILIZATION APPEARS LESS PROBABLE...SO SVR NUMBERS ARE KEPT
MRGL THERE.
Good morning / afternoon everyone!
I'm just popping in for a minute to report what is going on on the weather front in the UK. We face the worst storm for this winter with the highest wind speeds expected to 107 mph. The met office has issued a red warning, the highest warning level (read BBC article). I'm sitting in my office, listening to the deafening roar of the wind and the rattling of the single glazing windows (seriously, why?! in a country as windy as this, why not have double glazing? especially in buildings on top of a hill). I hope it won't be blown in.

Stay safe all my fellow wunderbloggers in the UK. I've cancelled my training run tonight and I'll batten down the hatches once I get out from work, gas cooker and battery radio at hand in case of power outages.
NWS Atlanta ‏@NWSAtlanta 8m
air outside filled with the smell of pine and can hear the cracks of trees in the distance. be careful out there. #icestorm2014 #gawx


here liquid is beginning to mix with the sleet.

glaze ice will begin accumulating again
1074. ncstorm
The 00z GFS and WRF are showing two different things for me..NWS is calling for an end to wintry weather here at noon but the WRF/CMC/and06z GFS has winter weather through thursday..




According to Georgia Power:

Active Outages: 471
Affected Customers: 39,615

http://outagemap.georgiapower.com/external/defaul t.html

25,000 around the Atlanta area, 10,000 or so around Augusta, but with the amount of freezing rain they've been getting, I'm sure that number will go up a lot.
Daily Post for North Wales:

North Wales weather: Violent gales and rain batter coastline
12 Feb 2014 12:55

A red warning for wind is in place across Wales with speeds expected to hit 107mph

High winds will hit North Wales today

Coastguards warned "violent" gales will hit the North Wales today as Storm Tini batters the coastline.

People living on the Llyn Peninsula, the rest of Gwynedd, Anglesey and Ceredigion were told to brace themselves for winds of up to 100mph.Read more

Schools are closing early today, bridges are closed and everybody is advised not to travel unless absolutely necessary. Power cuts are also expected, in three locations, power is already out.

Storm number 8 and counting for this winter and probably the most violent to date. I find the name quite funny, Tini, no, it's not tiny at all!
SREF gave Asheville the mean of 15 inches! Glad UNCA cancelled classes today...
1078. ncstorm
Looks like New Hanover County (Wilmington) has the biggest power outages in NC..4400 customers without power right now..and to think we werent even under a winter weather watch
1079. GoWVU
Lots of Ice on the trees and vehicles in my neighborhood this morning. Seems like a mix of sleet and freeing rain at this moment for me. Stay safe low country if you are out in this mess.
1080. CCkid00
Quoting 1073. GeorgiaStormz:
NWS Atlanta ‏@NWSAtlanta 8m
air outside filled with the smell of pine and can hear the cracks of trees in the distance. be careful out there. #icestorm2014 #gawx


here liquid is beginning to mix with the sleet.

glaze ice will begin accumulating again
are you in Cherokee County? my sister is in northern Ackworth. wondering if there are power outages there yet?
Jim Loznicka WGCL ‏@jimwxgator 6m
Power outages seemingly growing exponentially across Georgia. Now some 39K without power on the GA Power grid system #iceATL
Quoting 1080. CCkid00:


i have power in acworth.. about 1/10" ice.. it is still mainly sleet.

big wind gust just went by, not sure who has lost power
Getting heavy sleet mixed with a few flakes now in ATL.
1084. CCkid00
Quoting 1082. GeorgiaStormz:


i have power in acworth.. about 1/10" ice.. it is still mainly sleet.

thank you!
As of 8am it's officially an ice storm in Atlanta; 0.27" of ice reported at #ATL airport from 0.71" of liquid equivalent precipitation. #Pax



I barely have .15"
1086. VR46L
Lots of weather about


Quoting 1071. StormTrackerScott:
Schools maybe getting out early today in Orlando in preparation for this weather moving in.

Do you really think that they will close schools early for a slight risk of a severe thunderstorm over the peninsula?
Got ice pellets hitting here in Brunswick County in Southeast NC. I am 14 miles south of Wilmington. Supposed to go into work at 11, but may not try it. Car is covered in a very thick ice. Lots of trees line Hwy 133 here. Have heard of lots of limbs coming down. Does anyone know if we are going to turn to rain or does the ice keep coming down. The local TV Mets are all over to board on what is to happen. Thanks
Quoting 1082. GeorgiaStormz:


i have power in acworth.. about 1/10" ice.. it is still mainly sleet.

big wind gust just went by, not sure who has lost power


SCE&G just updated and now showing about 1200 in Charleston county without power... was 0 about 10 minutes ago.

Link
1092. sar2401
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Dry slot isnt that dry..there is still light precip

matches up quite well, note in N AL

precip developing there falls apart in a couple hours per hrrr before more develops


It's raining in Huntsville, Aniston, and Decatur, as well as every station in South Alabama. I don't think you're going to see much in the way of a dry slot in your neck of the woods.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0089
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH/CENTRAL GA AND SC/WESTERN NC

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 121344Z - 121815Z



SUMMARY...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PARTS OF GA/CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. CONSIDERABLE ICE ACCUMULATIONS
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL GA
INTO THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN OF SC...WHILE AT LEAST MODERATE SNOW
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY COMMON IN UPSTATE AREAS AND NEAR THE
APPALACHIANS.

DISCUSSION...IN GENERAL ASSOCIATION WITH AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE/RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATE AN EVOLVING BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE AND EXTENSIVE
MID-HIGH CLOUD/PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM PARTS OF AL/GA INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN/NORTH OF A STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL JET/WARM CONVEYOR IMPLIED PER WSR-88D VWP/12Z RAOB DATA.
AS SIGNIFICANT UVV/S OVERSPREAD THE REGION...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN GA INTO THE CAROLINAS. AS A ROUGH
SOUTHERN DEMARCATION OF THE MOST IMPACTFUL ICE/SNOW THIS
MORNING...THE SURFACE WET BULB 32F LINE AS OF 13Z CONTINUES TO MAKE
A SLOW/STEADY SOUTHWARD ADVANCEMENT /APPROX 25 MILE CHANGE PER HR/.
AT 13Z...THE 32F WET BULB LINE EXTENDS FROM W/SW OF THE ATLANTA
METRO AREA...SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL GA...PARALLELING
I-16 TO NEAR MACON/STATESBORO GA TO NEAR-IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF
THE CAROLINAS.

THE 12Z OBSERVED /PARTIAL/ SOUNDING FROM ATLANTA GA SAMPLED A WARM
LAYER AROUND 850 MB/1200 M AGL CONDUCIVE FOR FULL/PARTIAL MELTING
ATOP A SUB-FREEZING /AROUND -4C AT 500 M/ NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. THIS
SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN/SOME SLEET WITHIN A
CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL GA INCLUDING
I-20 INTO THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN OF SC
. THE 12Z OBSERVED
SOUNDING FROM CHARLESTON SC FEATURED A FULL-MELTING CONDUCIVE LAYER
BASED AROUND 500 M ATOP A VERY SHALLOW NEAR/SUB-FREEZING LAYER.

TO THE NORTH...SNOW /WITH SOME SLEET MIXED IN/ SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST
MODERATE SNOW BECOMING MORE COMMON PARTICULARLY ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHEAST GA/FAR NORTHERN SC INTO NC INCLUDING THE I-85 CORRIDOR.
GIVEN INCREASING SATURATION/UVV AND A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE DENDRITIC
GROWTH PROFILE...LOCALIZED SNOW RATES COULD REACH 1 IN/HR BY LATE
MORNING.

1094. ncstorm

Quoting 1088. NEWilmNCTP:
Got ice pellets hitting here in Brunswick County in Southeast NC. I am 14 miles south of Wilmington. Supposed to go into work at 11, but may not try it. Car is covered in a very thick ice. Lots of trees line Hwy 133 here. Have heard of lots of limbs coming down. Does anyone know if we are going to turn to rain or does the ice keep coming down. The local TV Mets are all over to board on what is to happen. Thanks

Hey Wilmington here..the NWS says all this should turn to rain by noon today but I have seen in some of the model runs where this goes into Thursday..however still follow the NWS and their alerts and see if anything changes

also please stay off the roads if you can..there have been numerous traffic accidents in Leland already this morning..



1095. sar2401
Quoting NEWilmNCTP:
Got ice pellets hitting here in Brunswick County in Southeast NC. I am 14 miles south of Wilmington. Supposed to go into work at 11, but may not try it. Car is covered in a very thick ice. Lots of trees line Hwy 133 here. Have heard of lots of limbs coming down. Does anyone know if we are going to turn to rain or does the ice keep coming down. The local TV Mets are all over to board on what is to happen. Thanks

Just assume it's going to stay the same or worse and don't try to drive anywhere. No one really knows how bad it will get there. That's why the forecasts are all over the board. This is a real good day to be "sick". :-)
Quoting 1087. luvtogolf:


My Father-In-Law is a principle at Tuskawilla Middle and they had a briefing this morning that if this line of storms moves in faster than anticipated then they will consider letting kids leave a little early but for sure all after school activities are cancelled across Seminole County.
Quoting 1092. sar2401:

It's raining in Huntsville, Aniston, and Decatur, as well as every station in South Alabama. I don't think you're going to see much in the way of a dry slot in your neck of the woods.


ok, lighter precip slot.
Upper level energy now diving into the western Gulf. As that happens storms will continue to intensify across the Gulf. Looking nasty especially across C & S FL later this afternoon.



Lightning is really increasing in the Central Gulf as this strong disturbance moves in from the west.
Quoting 579. ILwthrfan:
Bad, bad, bad...From Atlanta NWS

click to zoom



I'm sitting herre in athens and I can tell you that there is already 2-3" of snow/sleet on the ground. Everything is white, and we have allllll day to go.
Extreme weather keeps battering Viet Nam
Viet Nam is forecast to continue being battered by extreme weather this year after a range of unusual weather phenomena appeared recently.

"We'd rarely seen dense frequency of storms and tropical low-pressure systems attacked the country like last year," said director of the National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting Bui Minh Tang.
According to the centre, as many as 14 storms and five tropical low-pressure systems were reported in Viet Nam in 2013. This was the highest number within five decades.
A rarely-seen snowfall blanketed northern mountainous Lao Cai Province's Sa Pa Town in the middle of last December with thick snow of up to 50cm – the thickest within 50 years, Tang said.
Local residents in northern provinces sometimes suffered daily temperatures of 32 degree Celsius during Tet (Lunar New Year), the summer-season temperature during the winter-spring time, he added.
The unusual hot weather caused disruption to the country's forestry production, he said.
Findings from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development showed that over 13ha of forest were set on fire nationwide only in January, 47 per cent higher than the same period last year.
Tang said that this year the forecasting centre would multiply a very short range forecasting system to predict approaching rainstorms several hours before they reach Ha Noi and Hai Phong City after a model was piloted to forecast every one hour when strong storms battered the country in 2013.
Nguyen Van Hiep, head of the Centre of Meteorological and Climate Prediction said that drought, strong storm, torrential rain and sea-level rise would hit the country with higher frequency as well as with strong intensity in the future.
The number of hot days was predicted to rise from 30 to 45 each year, especially, in southern region, he added.
Icy weather was forecast to hit northern provinces this month...
West of Atlanta here -- so far we've been lucky. There's about a 1/4" of ice on the trees, but the ground's stayed warm enough that the road surfaces haven't iced...yet.

No accumulation on the roads or the grass. Nothing like we're seeing on TV and online from points just a little east or north.

Not that I'm complaining...
1103. JNTenne
Stone Mountain webcam
power outage map

Quoting 1102. schistkicker:
West of Atlanta here -- so far we've been lucky. There's about a 1/4" of ice on the trees, but the ground's stayed warm enough that the road surfaces haven't iced...yet.

No accumulation on the roads or the grass. Nothing like we're seeing on TV and online from points just a little east or north.

Not that I'm complaining...


nw of atlanta, youve got waaay more ice than us.
Sleet is covering the roads here though.
Quoting 1034. VirginIslandsVisitor:


Or when the pipes freeze and you can't get water, and then to add to the misery, the sump pump in your basement can't work and you have to bail water for hours at a time, three or four times a day, for weeks.....oh, my... *shakes head*

Lindy


Wow - you've brought back a lot of memories. In Maine January 1998. Ten days no power, several nights below zero and a couple of snow storms. Two wood stoves and a kerosene heater - take out food. Baseboard hot water heat - oil furnace, had to drain the system to prevent freezing.

Central Maine Power was completely unorganized. Never forget day 10 - National Guard came up the road escorting a Utility Crew from No Carolina. Took about 2 hours and the power was back - an unreal feeling.

Now have an automatic generator that runs on propane - self test every Friday AM at 6 - never want to go through that again. Good Luck all!
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 30 degrees with freezing drizzle which is almost out of the area. Our winter advisory was extended to 9 but after that the sky should be clear if cloudy. I have no idea what the roads are like, if they're okay or if they're icy. And I plan to keep it that way. *G*


Breakfast's on the sideboard: berry breakfast pizza, Cinnamon French Toast Casserole, French Toast Roll-Ups, Cheesecake Burritos with strawberry topping, Apple slices dipped in pancake batter & cooked on the griddle with cinnamon & nutmeg, omelets with cheese, mushrooms, peppers and dice ham or bacon, Canadian bacon, sausage links, cheesy grits and shrimp, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Special treat of flavored cappuccinos, cinnamon, Irish cream, white chocolate caramel or French vanilla . Enjoy!
1108. hydrus
1109. ricderr
LMAO...no need to worry...i just called the orange county school district..(407) 317-3200....there are no plans to close schools today....in fact the woman i spoke with laughed at the idea
Thundersnow reported NNE of Columbia, SC

KCDN 121435Z AUTO 03015G20KT VCTS -SN M02/M03 A3031 RMK A02 LTG DSNT E AND W P040
Just a little something the Houston forecast office posted this morning:

Quoting 1045. daddyjames:


Yeah, except the beach sand doesn't semi-melt then refreeze overnight into a solid block of ice :D.


Oh yeah.. That happened too.

Quoting 1108. hydrus:


you can see it turning.. precip should develop in the drier area in SE AL, SW GA as the low turns towards horizontal. then the big event with more ice, and possibly big snows.


should keep light freezing drizzle through the day
1115. sar2401
Quoting nofailsafe:
Just a little something the Houston forecast office posted this morning:


How interesting. Record cold winters tend to be followed by cool, wet summers with landfalling tropical storms. I wonder if 2014 will follow the pattern?
1116. hydrus
Quoting 1114. GeorgiaStormz:


you can see it turning.. precip should develop in the drier area in SE AL, SW GA as the low turns towards horizontal. then the big event with more ice, and possibly big snows.


should keep light freezing drizzle through the day
Yep. The faster this storm moves the better. If for some reason movement slows before the usual acceleration to the N.E., more problems will arise.
Quoting 1109. ricderr:
LMAO...no need to worry...i just called the orange county school district..(407) 317-3200....there are no plans to close schools today....in fact the woman i spoke with laughed at the idea


You sir have to much time on your hands, but I have lived in the Tampa area all my life and never have they sent kids home early from school for a cold front moving thru. I remember back in the 80's a tropical depression moved over the Tampa area and I was at school. Yes they may cancel after school activities but highly doubt they will be sending kids home early.
1118. maeko
Good morning! CHARLESTON,SC...West of the Ashley...Woke up 7:30am to 32%u02DAF and Freezing rain with ice on surfaces. Temp up to 33.3%u02DAF and rain con't as of 9:30am. Most area bridges reopened but Ravenel remains closed. Gov't EOC at OPCON 4.
1119. sar2401
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


you can see it turning.. precip should develop in the drier area in SE AL, SW GA as the low turns towards horizontal. then the big event with more ice, and possibly big snows.


should keep light freezing drizzle through the day

What? It's been raining hard in SE AL with thunderstorms since midnight. My gauge shows 2.30" since midnight. There haven't been any dry areas in SE AL.
Quoting 1116. hydrus:
Yep. The faster this storm moves the better. If for some reason movement slows before the usual acceleration to the N.E., more problems will arise.


it's not supoosed to leave till early tomorrow morning...
the wraparound will put down a lot of ice and snow and be here for a long time... counted nearly 10hours on the hrrr, and that doesnt even show when it leaves.
1121. ricderr
You sir have to much time on your hands, but I have lived in the Tampa area all my life and never have they sent kids home early from school for a cold front moving thru. I remember back in the 80's a tropical depression moved over the Tampa area and I was at school. Yes they may cancel after school activities but highly doubt they will be sending kids home early.


yes sir...i do....actually though it took less than two minutes...i just feel that when a subject like this is hyped...it needs to be factually looked at as a parent if i might be affected such an announcement would be cause for concern
1122. StormWx
Quoting ricderr:
LMAO...no need to worry...i just called the orange county school district..(407) 317-3200....there are no plans to close schools today....in fact the woman i spoke with laughed at the idea


Yes there are currently no plans at any school to close early because of rain today. For some reason Scott wants to hype this mass of wet rain coming to Florida. *SMH*
1123. MahFL
The icing in Louisiana on the back edge looks ominous.

Quoting 1119. sar2401:

What? It's been raining hard in SE AL with thunderstorms since midnight. My gauge shows 2.30" since midnight. There haven't been any dry areas in SE AL.


i mean this area

1125. MahFL
That's an odd feature.

Johnny Kelly ‏@stormchaser4850 3m
Developing: Power outages continue to mount in Georgia with power companies reporting 78,000+ without electricity (9:45 am ET) #WinterStorm


when the next part comes in, this will continue to balloon again
nws

Note that that it doesn't say driving conditions will be "hazardous" or "difficult" or "dangerous". It says "impossible".

Now, how many Atlanta-area drivers, having seen the above and similar messages for the past three days, will shrug and say, "Meh. I got this,", then head out this afternoon or evening, wind up in a ditch or a pond or wrapped around a light pole or bridge abutment or crashed into the back of someone's else's car, and start complaining that no one told them how bad it was going to be?

A show of hands?
1128. ricderr
Yes there are currently no plans at any school to close early because of rain today. For some reason Scott wants to hype this mass of wet rain coming to Florida. *SMH*



for the most part i don't mind scott's hype....in fact to a degree i give him credit that he makes these long range predictions knowing that he's going to be held accountable...he has skills....but when there's outright lying involved...i begin to lose respect
1129. MahFL
@Neopolitan Downtown Atlanta looks deserted, I think most people heeded the warnings this time.
1130. ricderr
How many Atlanta-area drivers, having seen the above and similar messages for the past three days, will shrug and say, "Meh. I got this,", then head out this afternoon or evening, wind up in a ditch or a pond or wrapped around a light pole or bridge abutment or crashed into the back of someone's else's car, and start complaining that no one told them how bad it was going to be?


more than i can count...especially during today's climate of non personal responsibility
1131. sar2401
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


i mean this area


Don't put too much faith in radar showing up areas of rain. It's currently raining in Mobile, Evergreen, Ozark, Troy, Dothan, and Eufaula. There aren't any dry areas in south Alabama.
Quoting 1126. GeorgiaStormz:
Johnny Kelly ‏@stormchaser4850 3m
Developing: Power outages continue to mount in Georgia with power companies reporting 78,000+ without electricity (9:45 am ET) #WinterStorm


when the next part comes in, this will continue to balloon again


Outages are mounting quickly in SC too with SCE&G alone reporting over 25,000.
Much more ice than predicted in this area. Can't imagine areas to the north!
Quoting 1129. MahFL:
@Neopolitan Downtown Atlanta looks deserted, I think most people heeded the warnings this time.
I hope that's the case. o. Maybe getting burned just two weeks ago knocked a little sense into people. But you can never go wrong underestimating the amount of common sense some people possess... ;-)
Still completely dry in Charlotte. Looks like western NC is getting missed bigtime unless I'm missing something
1136. hydrus
Quoting 1115. sar2401:

How interesting. Record cold winters tend to be followed by cool, wet summers with landfalling tropical storms. I wonder if 2014 will follow the pattern?
I have noticed tropical cyclones tend to make landfall when Florida suffers drought conditions...2004 is a good example.The early 2000,s were very dry.
1137. nash36
Quoting 1133. StormJunkie:
Much more ice than predicted in this area. Can't imagine areas to the north!


Ground never got to freezing, thank god. We certainly got more than we bargained for. And it isn't over for us either. Tonight is another wait and see with temps. That cold pocket is awfully strong and the backside of this low will prob knock us down to or below freezing again.
1138. ricderr
Much more ice than predicted in this area. Can't imagine areas to the north!


so...are we talking ice on bridges only...or on the surface streets themselves?...is this just patchy ice or will they be holding a hockey game by your front yard?
1139. Patrap
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1141. MahFL
Quoting 1134. Neapolitan:
I hope that's the case. o. Maybe getting burned just two weeks ago knocked a little sense into people. But you can never go wrong underestimating the amount of common sense some people possess... ;-)


Well it started from the top the last time, the Gov was at a dinner for the Mayor and they tweeted all was ok, when it wasn't ok, then they held the first news conference the day after it hit.
Our temps got down to -1 this am, all the way up to 8 now so anything that falls, will fall as snow. Our prediction is up to 10 inches now for the Potomac Highlands in WV. We are on the western edge of the storm, but we are also on the windward side of storms coming from the east. It would be nice to wish this thing away, but I have a feeling we will get more snow than 10 inches before it's over.

Link

All I will say is yuck, and hurry up March.
1143. sar2401
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:
Still completely dry in Charlotte. Looks like western NC is getting missed bigtime unless I'm missing something

Where do live in Charlotte? It's snowing and 27 degrees at the airport and has been snowing on and off for most of the night. At any rate, the heaviest snow should start this afternoon and continue for most of the night and into Thursday morning. It's hard to imagine you haven't seen any snow at all.
Quoting 1143. sar2401:

Where do live in Charlotte? It's snowing and 27 degrees at the airport and has been snowing on and off for most of the night. At any rate, the heaviest snow should start this afternoon and continue for most of the night and into Thursday morning. It's hard to imagine you haven't seen any snow at all.


Flurries have begun in the last few minutes. I'm on the northern fringe of Charlotte. Was already skeptical about 6+ ever really happening here and the slow start certainly isn't helping! I'd take nothing over an ice storm though, so guess I'll just enjoy the day off :)
Quoting 1101. StormTrackerScott:



Interesting, I can already see that the line is intensifying and getting deeper as the line is beginning to weaken further north here near Tallahassee. This is common when a squall line/MCS gets deep enough to effectively "block" much of the inflow further north, which causes a weak zone to the north of it.

Looks as if we are going to see a pretty impressive line here moving through as 500 mb flow looks as though it should take the vort max(upper disturbance) right over north Florida placing Central Florida in the greatest ascent quadrant later today. That should allow a solid line of substantial convection to move through.
1146. hydrus
Snow in Charlotte has changed to sleet. Any chance changing back to snow, or more likely to continue sleet or warming to freezing rain?
I heard one newscaster make reference to the low that is causing the moisture moving more eastward which will bring the cold further south and east...can anyone confirm or deny this happening?