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California's Sierras Get Over 10 Inches of Precipitation; Snow, Ice Coming to South

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:46 PM GMT on February 10, 2014

California's biggest rainstorm since December 2012 brought much-needed moisture to the state over the weekend, thanks to a very moist “Pineapple Express” atmospheric river of moisture from the Hawaiian Islands. The storm brought more than 2" of precipitation to most of Northern California, and more than 10" to the Northern Sierra Mountains, where as much as six feet of snow fell above 9,000'. Some locations saw more rain in a four-day period than they had during the previous eight months. San Francisco got 2.58" of rain Thursday through Sunday, which isn't far below the 4.24” of rain it received during the previous thirteen months. The city averages about 20" of rain per year. Water levels on the critical Central California reservoir Folsom Lake rose by twelve feet in one day between February 8 and 9, 2014. However, the lake remains at just 41% of its average capacity for this time of year, and is well below the record low levels set during 1977. California probably needs at least five more storms like this to pull them out of drought. Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt discusses the amazing January 2014 California heat wave in his Saturday post, and has a detailed update on precipitation totals from the past weekend's Pineapple Express storm in his latest post.


Figure 1. Observed precipitation for the 7-day period ending at 12 UTC on Monday, February 10, 2014. Portions of the northern Sierra Mountains received more than ten inches of precipitation. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.


Figure 2. Water levels on the critical Central California reservoir Folsom Lake rose by twelve feet in one day between February 8 and 9, 2014. However, the lake remains at just 41% of its average capacity for this time of year, and is well below the record low levels set during 1977. Image credit: California Department of Water Resources.

The forecast: a return to mostly dry conditions this week
The persistent and intense ridge of high pressure that has dominated the West Coast since December 2012, bringing California's record dry spell, has broken down over the past week. While the models show generally dry conditions for the state during the coming ten days, the ridge is not forecast to build back at anywhere near its former intensity, giving me some hope that the state will experience more rainy weather during the last half of February.


Figure 3. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending on Monday, February 17, 2014. California will mostly be dry, with heavy rains confined to the far Northern Coast. Image credit: NOAA.

Significant winter storm takes aim at Southern U.S.
The Southern U.S. gets its second serious winter storm of 2014 this week, as Winter Storm Pax brings a dangerous mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain. The snow and freezing rain action begins Monday night over Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, Southern Arkansas, and Northern Louisiana, then spreads eastwards on Tuesday into northern portions of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina, and over much of North Carolina. Atlanta, Georgia, which was shut down by the 2.6" of snow Winter Storm Leon brought to the city on January 28, is under a Winter Storm Watch. Snow and sleet are expected to begin on Tuesday morning. After warming afternoon temperatures bring a period of plain rain on Tuesday afternoon, the rain may change to freezing rain on Tuesday night and Wednesday, making travel dangerous or impossible. The greatest accumulations of freezing rain may fall in Central South Carolina, where up to 3/4" of ice is predicted. However, this is a complex forecast, and just a slight shift in the track of the storm or atmospheric conditions could greatly alter the amount of snow and freezing rain this storm brings. The storm will move up the Eastern Seaboard Wednesday night into Thursday, potentially bringing snow to major East Coast cities.

Jeff Masters
rain in ca
rain in ca

Drought Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 497. VAbeachhurricanes:
Can you post the map plz?
Mikey no likey?



Click to expand


Quoting 501. BaltimoreBrian:


Mikey no likey?





No... It misses me mostly for snow :(
Quoting 501. BaltimoreBrian:


Mikey no likey?





NAM must be significantly colder to be showing that much snow over SC. GFS/WRF have been showing more freezing rain/sleet over central SC.
What snow totals does the 00Z ECMWF show for the foothills of NC?
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


rai wont help snow accums.... transition line needs to get moving . was hoping dry until wintery precip started

I think Wednesday and Wednesday night will be the time when you see all snow. Regardless of what has come before, snowfall rates of 2.0 to 2.5 inches per hour can boost the total pretty quickly. We had 2 inches in just three hours with the last event. The flakes were the size of dinner plates. :-)
Quoting 504. robert88:
What snow totals does the 00Z ECMWF show for the foothills of NC?
Around 10-14 inches.
Ryan maue bsdicaly said thec new ecmwf was colder amd very icy, and that he wrapsround couldcdropvs wuick 6 inch parting shot..any images you saw?
I <3 the latest Euro run
Atlanta has just purchased new equipment to deal with this snow event, they are ready this time!

Here is the new snow clearing equipment ready for action:

Model A:


Heavy duty variant 2.0 for heavy snow applications:


I think they are ready now.
Temp here is falling steadily. 34.8f dewpoint 30f.. rain..

based off spc, 0c 850 mb line moved north not souh..might end up all rain like nam, said
Quoting 506. Bluestorm5:
Around 10-14 inches.


Thanks... looks like the W areas of NC are going to get slammed! Blacksburg is going with a ECMWF/NAM forecast and i believe Spartanburg as well. The thinking is more W than the GFS out of those offices. Blacksburg has been with the ECMWF since the start. They seem to think it has matched up very well with current atmospheric conditions than any other model.
Quoting 509. Jedkins01:
Atlanta has just purchased new equipment to deal with this snow event, they are ready this time!

Here is the new snow clearing equipment ready for action:

Model A:


Heavy duty variant 2.0 for heavy snow applications:


I think they are ready now.


What's the Tallahassee snow removal equipment? ;)
Quoting 511. robert88:


Thanks... looks like the W areas of NC are going to get slammed! Blacksburg is going with a ECMWF/NAM forecast and i believe Spartanburg as well. The thinking is more W than the GFS out of those offices. Blacksburg has been with the ECMWF since the start. They seem to think it has matched up very well with current atmospheric conditions than any other model.

I believe the ECMWF has been the most consistent with the storm. Yes?
Each HRRR run still gives you snow GS, in about 6 hours.

Quoting 508. Doppler22:
I <3 the latest Euro run

I can't see Cody's pic
Quoting 512. BaltimoreBrian:


What's the Tallahassee snow removal equipment? ;)



We go big or go home, we had to break out the muscle for our winter storm a couple weeks ago:





Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
DEPRESSION SUBTROPICALE FOBANE (11-20132014)
10:00 AM RET February 11 2014
==========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Subtropical Depression Fobane (980 hPa) located at 24.0S 66.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=======================
110 NM radius from the center, extending up to 140 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 160 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 180 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: NIL

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS 25.5S 66.0E - 50 knots (Depression Subtropicale)
24 HRS 27.5S 65.4E - 50 knots (Depression Subtropicale)
48 HRS 31.5S 63.9E - 50 knots (Depression Subtropicale)
72 HRS 31.0S 61.7E - 45 knots (Depression Subtropicale)

Additional Information
======================
Mean sea level pressure has been adjusted slightly lower in relationship with peripheral winds extensions (1650z ASCAT), with estimated RMW and environmental sea level pressures.

The low/mid level subtropical ridge situated in the southeast currently steers Fobane west southwestward. A col is coming to the south and Fobane is therefore expected within the next hours to track southwestward then south southwestward on Wednesday. On Thursday, a new subtropical ridge is rebuilding by the west and then the system is expected to re-curve again westward until Friday. The available numerical weather prediction models, ECMWF, UKMO, GFS, NAVGEM and GFDN are in general good agreement about this scenario despite variances about the latitude up to 3/4 degrees from one to the others from Thursday.

From Saturday, numerical weather prediction models show a large spread of possibilities and confidence in the forecast track is therefore lower than usual. The current forecast track is based on the ECMWF numerical weather prediction model. On Saturday a new strong subtropical ridge will build south of Madagascar and the system is therefore expected to be steered very slowly northward then northeastward.

On this forecast track, from today until Friday, Fobane is expected to evolve under a broad upper level trough in which a new cut-off is expected to isolate on the northwest of the system from Thursday. Fobane is therefore expected to keep its hybrid subtropical structure and stay until Friday near an intensity between 45-50 knots before extra-tropicalization and weakening from Saturday undergoing a strengthening northwesterly wind shear constraint.
518. 882MB
HEY GUYS, ONE QUICK QUESTION OUT OF THE MIAMI NWS DISCUSSION TALKED ABOUT POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER BY THE NAPLES, AND FORT MYERS AREA, USUALLY THEY TEND TO DISSSIPATE WHEN THESE CELLS MOVE INLAND, BUT THERE IS GOING TO BE THAT MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING BY WHICH WILL PUT US IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE SECTION OF THE JET WHICH IN TURN HAS DIVERGENCE CREATING MORE LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE, I JUST THINK WE MAY HAVE A FEW STRONG STORMS, BUT HERE IN THE MIAMI AREA I JUST SEE PROBABLY AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN WHICH WILL ADD, TO WHAT I CAN SAY HAS BEEN A VERY WET PATTERN FOR FLORIDA THESE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS, WITH FRONTS STALLING AND DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT, MORE TYPICAL OF EL NIO TYPE PATTERN, JUST LIKE THIS SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM AFFECTING US ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANYBODY AGREES OR HAS AN OPINION? ALSO THESE TWO MONSOON LOWS 98P AND 95S HAVE BEEN LOOKING LIKE TROPICAL CYCLONES BUT OVERLAND, USUALLY THEY MAKE LANDFALL AND SHEAR KILLS THEM AND DRY AIR, IN THIS CASE, THESE LOWS HAVE BEEN HAVING EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND PRETTY TIGHT CIRCULATIONS, WITH INTENSE CONVECTION. THIS HAPENED LIKE 2 WEEKS AGO WITH ANOTHER INVEST, PRETTY IMPRESSIVE ALL I CAN SAY!!
Quoting 518. 882MB:
HEY GUYS, ONE QUICK QUESTION OUT OF THE MIAMI NWS DISCUSSION TALKED ABOUT POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER BY THE NAPLES, AND FORT MYERS AREA, USUALLY THEY TEND TO DISSSIPATE WHEN THESE CELLS MOVE INLAND, BUT THERE IS GOING TO BE THAT MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING BY WHICH WILL PUT US IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE SECTION OF THE JET WHICH IN TURN HAS DIVERGENCE CREATING MORE LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE, I JUST THINK WE MAY HAVE A FEW STRONG STORMS, BUT HERE IN THE MIAMI AREA I JUST SEE PROBABLY AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN WHICH WILL ADD, TO WHAT I CAN SAY HAS BEEN A VERY WET PATTERN FOR FLORIDA THESE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS, WITH FRONTS STALLING AND DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT, MORE TYPICAL OF EL NI�O TYPE PATTERN, JUST LIKE THIS SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM AFFECTING US ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANYBODY AGREES OR HAS AN OPINION? ALSO THESE TWO MONSOON LOWS 98P AND 95S HAVE BEEN LOOKING LIKE TROPICAL CYCLONES BUT OVERLAND, USUALLY THEY MAKE LANDFALL AND SHEAR KILLS THEM AND DRY AIR, IN THIS CASE, THESE LOWS HAVE BEEN HAVING EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND PRETTY TIGHT CIRCULATIONS, WITH INTENSE CONVECTION. THIS HAPENED LIKE 2 WEEKS AGO WITH ANOTHER INVEST, PRETTY IMPRESSIVE ALL I CAN SAY!!
yes wenesday might be trouble for us here in central florida,scott was warning about that yesterday..we'll see what happens..
Good morning!.................
if THIS model is right..wens night and thursday is the trouble time...
It has been snowing here in Calhoun,Ga since 4am. It is a wet snow and we now have about an inch on the ground with the temperature around 30 degrees.

Nearby Airports

New Haven | Clear | 7 °F
Chester | Clear | 14 °F
Meriden | Partly Cloudy | 1 °F

Wrong location?


Nearby Weather Stations

Bishops Orchards-Meadow Ridge | 12.7 °F
Orcutt | 8.4 °F
Bishops Orchards-LHR | 8.9 °F


cold weather
Good morning. The Aussies released their new ENSO update.

Issued on Tuesday 11 February 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state is neutral, with climate models suggesting neutral conditions will persist at least until the end of the austral autumn. However, some warming of the Pacific is likely in the coming months.

Most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean will warm through the austral autumn and winter. Some, but not all, models indicate central Pacific Ocean temperatures may approach El Niño levels by early winter. Model outlooks that span autumn tend to have lower skill than outlooks made at other times of the year, hence long-range outlooks should be used cautiously at this point. Neither neutral nor El Niño states can be discounted for the second half of 2014.

In the last fortnight, a westerly wind event over the far western tropical Pacific led to some warming beneath the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean, though surface temperatures remain close to average. The current high values of the SOI are expected to reduce as recent volatile weather near Darwin and Tahiti eases.

The Indian Ocean Dipole is typically too weak to have a significant influence on the Australian climate from December to April.

Link
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST GULF ON
WEDNESDAY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

$$
inter Storm Warning
Statement as of 5:30 AM EST on February 11, 2014

... Winter Storm Warning now in effect until 7 am EST Thursday...
... Winter Storm Watch is cancelled...

The National Weather Service in Peachtree City has cancelled the
Winter Storm Watch and the Winter Storm Warning has been extended
through 7am EST Thursday.

* Locations... north of a line from Rome to Dawsonville to Cleveland.

* Hazard types... primarily snow with minor sleet and freezing rain
accumulations.

* Accumulations... up to one inch of snow through Tuesday afternoon
then an additional 5 to 7 inches Tuesday night through Wednesday
night with isolated amounts up to 9 inches.

* Timing... snow and sleet is already occurring across north
Georgia. This trend will continue into the morning and a
transition to rain is possible this afternoon for a brief period
of time. This will transition back to snow and sleet tonight
into Wednesday and then primarily all snow Wednesday night.

* Impacts... snow will accumulate on roads making for hazardous
driving conditions today and tonight. As the more significant
snowfall occurs Wednesday and Wednesday night... travel will be
nearly impossible given high snowfall amounts.

* Winds... northeast 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.

* Temperatures... in the mid to upper 30s today... upper 20s to
lower 30s tonight... lower to mid 30s Wednesday and upper 20s
Wednesday night.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of
mainly snow are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only
travel in an emergency. If you must travel... keep an extra
flashlight... food... and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency.







Winter Weather Statement - Winter Weather Statement


Cities Affected
Calhoun
Fairmount
Oakman
Plainville
Ranger
Resaca
Sugar Valley
Forecasts for Georgia
GA-SC,,Heed your Local warnings............Ice Storm Warning

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
428 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

...DANGEROUS WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS INLAND
PORTIONS OF GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

GAZ087-088-SCZ040-042>045-111730-
/O.CON.KCHS.IS.W.0002.140212T0500Z-140213T1500Z/
JENKINS-SCREVEN-ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-
INLAND BERKELEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MILLEN...SYLVANIA...ALLENDALE...
HAMPTON...WALTERBORO...ST. GEORGE...SUMMERVILLE...MONCKS CORNER
428 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

...ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
10 AM EST THURSDAY...

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH.

* TIMING...RAIN IS FORECAST TO MIX OR CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN CONTINUE INTO
AS LATE AS THURSDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD CREATE DANGEROUS
OR IMPOSSIBLE DRIVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES...
OVERPASSES AND UNTREATED ROADS. DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER
LINES ARE LIKELY AS WELL AS POWER OUTAGES ACROSS THE AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE OR WALK. ICE ACCUMULATION
WILL DAMAGE TREES AND POWER LINES. IF YOU ENCOUNTER DOWNED POWER
LINES...DO NOT TOUCH THE LINES BECAUSE YOU COULD BE ELECTROCUTED.
REPORT DOWNED POWER LINES TO LAW ENFORCEMENT OR THE POWER
COMPANY. PREPARE TO REMAIN IN A SAFE SHELTER WITHOUT ELECTRICITY
FOR MANY HOURS. OBTAIN VITAL SUPPLIES SUCH AS POTABLE WATER...NON-
PERISHABLE FOOD...MEDICINE...BATTERIES...FLASHLIGHTS AND A
BATTERY POWERED RADIO.

&&

$$
wens nite thurs morning is central florida's trouble time..
some area's of the south might get heavy snowfall totals...
wash dc area..........................WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW

* ACCUMULATIONS...THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE TEENS AND 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY
RISING INTO THE LOWER 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...BECOMING NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* IMPACTS...ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. TRAVEL
MAY BE DANGEROUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HEAVY WET SNOW
COULD LEAD TO SOME POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$
Off Topic=Sad news to post as Shirley Temple has died at 85. Rest in peace her soul.

from Tampa NWS.....................AS FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYERED SHEAR INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION (GREATEST
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AND POINTS NORTH) WHICH WOULD FAVOR ORGANIZED
AND ROTATING UPDRAFTS...HOWEVER MARGINAL MOISTURE RETURN AND MUCAPE
(AOB 700 J/KG) WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR ANY ORGANIZED OR SEVERE
STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND OR HAIL LIKELY TO
BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHERE THE GREATEST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
BULK SHEAR...AND INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE.

DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS SOME POSSIBLY
STRONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE EAST
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY IN THE NIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES
WILL THEN DIMINISH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION ON AN INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH THE
CONVECTION FINALLY ENDING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.
Currently light rain over most of Georgia, but there is light snow falling over extreme north Ga.
AVALANCHE WARNING
COLORADO AVALANCHE INFORMATION CENTER
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
639 AM MST MON FEB 10 2014

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
COLORADO AVALANCHE INFORMATION CENTER.

...AVALANCHE WARNING FOR PARK RANGE...FLAT TOP MOUNTAINS...FRONT
RANGE...GORE RANGE...TEN MILE RANGE...GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS...RUBY
RANGE...WEST ELK MOUNTAINS...MOSQUITO RANGE...SAWATCH RANGE

THE COLORADO AVALANCHE INFORMATION CENTER HAS EXTENDED AN AVALANCHE
WARNING FOR MOUNTAIN RANGES IN THE STEAMBOAT...FRONT RANGE...VAIL
SUMMIT...SAWATCH...ASPEN... AND GUNNISON FORECAST ZONES. VERY STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS DRIFTED SNOW NEAR AND ABOVE TREELINE. THE BACKCOUNTRY
AVALANCHE DANGER IS HIGH. AVALANCHE CONDITIONS ARE VERY DANGEROUS.
NATURAL AND HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES ARE LIKELY. SOME AVALANCHES
MAY BE VERY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE. BACKCOUNTRY TRAVELERS ARE ADVISED
TO STAY WELL CLEAR OF ALL AVALANCHE TERRAIN. AVOID TRAVELING ON OR
UNDER STEEP SLOPES.

FOR ADDITIONAL AVALANCHE INFORMATION CALL...303-275-5360 IN
DENVER...970-668-0600 IN SUMMIT COUNTY...970-920-1664 IN ASPEN...
970-247-8187 IN DURANGO...OR VISIT THE COLORADO AVALANCHE
INFORMATION CENTER`S WEB PAGE AT COLORADO.GOV/AVALANCHE

LAZAR

$$
Almost 2 inches of snow here in Calhoun. Roads are snow covered.
well Moisture IS there..all depends on Temps now....
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6
PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET AT TIMES.

* TIMING...MAINLY LIGHT SNOW WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME HEAVIER EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING
OFF THURSDAY MORNING. MAINLY SNOW IS EXPECTED...BUT WITH SLEET
MIXING IN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF
INTERSTATE 85. THE SNOW WILL END FROM THE WEST THURSDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 8 INCHES...ALONG WITH
AROUND A TRACE OF ICE. A FEW HIGHER SNOW TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE
CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS.

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND OCCASIONAL SLEET
WILL MAKE TRAVEL TREACHEROUS. THE ACCUMULATIONS MAY ALSO CREATE
NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

Good morning everyone.

Guess tonight is the night to batten down the hatches. Ice storm warning remains in effect and now the progged low for this area is below freezing. That'll change things.
Winter Storm Watch - Ladson, SC

Ice Storm Warning - Summerville, SC

Distance between those two points - 4.45 miles...Think the Charleston NWS office may have their hands full trying to figure out where that freezing line will set up.
Quoting 542. nash36:
Good morning everyone.

Guess tonight is the night to batten down the hatches. Ice storm warning remains in effect and now the progged low for this area is below freezing. That'll change things.


Nash, you are about 2.5 miles away from being in a Winter Storm Watch zone...lol
Quoting 544. StormJunkie:


Nash, you are about 2.5 miles away from being in a Winter Storm Watch zone...lol


I know man. It's nuts. You can spit and end up in a different zone.
wow its coming soon
folks stay alert and safe driving the next few days,ice underneath snow is dangerous...
funny..we are getting More severe weather in the south this winter than we did all thru the last hurricane season lol..
On a happy note, after this system clears out it will begin to warm up and stay dry for the SE, especially FL.



For central NC, just issued:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
706 AM EST TUE FEB 11 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* HAZARDS...SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HEAVY
SNOW IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT INCLUDING THE TRIAD...WITH A COMBINATION OF SNOW AND
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING ICE ACCUMULATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE TRIANGLE AND INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR.

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT OF NORTH
CAROLINA.

* TIMING...WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOW...THEN
TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...ALONG WITH
A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* IMPACTS...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICING COULD SEVERELY DISRUPT
TRAVEL ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. POWER
OUTAGES AND PROPERTY DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

* WINDS...FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH TODAY... INCREASING
WEDNESDAY TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
Quoting 486. wxgeek723:


Ah thanks for reminding me, left out a couple

Derecho may have caused tsunami in New Jersey

Small asteroid behind East Coast meteor
Quoting 484. Astrometeor:


tsunami, epic drought, volcanic eruption, asteroid strike, Congress working, a lot of things actually.



Congress working, Hell freezing over, flying pigs.

Rsined all night
Finally seeing snowflakes mixing in with the rain
Some peple reporting up to 3" of snow accumulations not 20 miles to my north. power of the 850mb line
despite the radar, it's been raining until just now at my area. some people reporting slick roads up in north ga





heavy snow now..previous rains making accumulation hard
Almost 3 inches of snow on the ground now at Calhoun. The meteorologists at the TV stations in Atlanta are useless. They still are saying maybe one inch possible. We look to have 4-5 inches from the 1st round....
It's a nice steady cold rain here right now but I'm watching the birds and squirrels eating as much as they can. Virtual traffic jam at the feeders! Already having trees starting to come down. Should be interesting later!
One killed on Hwy 53 this morning just east of Calhoun... Roads soon turned into a mess quickly with temps near 30 and heavy wet snow.
dinnerplate flakes now... lol ok maybe not but THAT big and earlier rain is really hampering accums.
goodness, i really would like snow, no ice storm, oh well, back to back U.S.GOLF open happens in 4 months, hope the pine trees make it!!! on a serious thought, does anyone think this could be a worst case for an ice storm here in central nc??? thanks
Hi over there with a short hello from sunny Germany; hope everybody is fine despite the winter threat (and the ongoing flooding in UK).

Sea level threat to force retreat of communities in Wales
BBC, 11 February 2014 Last updated at 11:50 GMT, by Rhidian Thomas
Coastal communities in Wales face being abandoned as rising sea levels mean the cost of maintaining defences can no longer be justified, BBC Wales can reveal.
A 2010 report found £135m must be spent annually on defences by 2035 just to maintain the current level of risk.
Councils across Wales are now planning for a "managed retreat".
Natural Resources Minister Alun Davies said it was not currently part of Welsh government policy.
But BBC Wales' Week In Week Out has found local authorities around Wales are already making preparations. ...
ahh..the Euro put me in some great wintry precip totals..actually increased amounts for me..I'm now in a Winter Weather advisory but I have a feeling the Euro is going to win on this one due to my wishcast sixth sense..even the deterministic means for the ensembles is showing at least 6 inches of snow for Wilmington..

GFS vs the Euro..
Wow! The storm total ice forecast for central SC is quite scary... and what's crazy is that some of these areas are only an hour away from me or less and we're only expected to get .10 at the most... gonna have to watch that freezing line very carefully!




It's really interresting to look at the surface pressure trends over the last 12 hours... A slow, steady rise across central SC as the low level riding and associated cold air continue to move in. I'm thinking NWS under forecast the totals across northern midlands, snow already accumulating north of I-20 with sleet now being reported in Columbia.
snow lightened up.. per hrrr and nam, this will continue to become more and more snowy through the morning... Eventuallly will leave. ECMWF has nice wraparound
Quoting 564. carolinabelle:
Wow! The storm total ice forecast for central SC is quite scary... and what's crazy is that some of these areas are only an hour away from me or less and we're only expected to get .10 at the most... gonna have to watch that freezing line very carefully!






These totals are actually conservative... GFS and WRF have been showing 2+ inches along I-20 corridor for the past 3 or 4 runs... This could be a VERY bad storm for central SC
I would lol if the ecmwf was to verfy... i mean we can hope but
Quoting 559. lostinohio:
One killed on Hwy 53 this morning just east of Calhoun... Roads soon turned into a mess quickly with temps near 30 and heavy wet snow.


yeah it's cold and snowy up there... im jelly of their 3" of snow already...some places could push 5" first round
Quoting 568. GeorgiaStormz:
I would lol if the ecmwf was to verfy... i mean we can hope but


I'm hoping..
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone! It's just barely 31 degrees with a wind chill of 20 degrees. Expected high today is 33. The rain has temporarily stopped but it looks like ice heading our way from Texas. Deck outside is iced in places, DIL almost fell coming in my back door.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Fruity Baked Oatmeal, Spicy Scrambled Egg Sandwiches, apple cinnamon waffles, Corned Beef Hash with Fried Eggs, Glazed Cinnamon Rolls with Pecan Swirls, Omelet Soufflé, Oversize Breakfast Biscuits with sausage patties and strawberry jelly on the side, sweet and spicy bacon, Apple-Pecan Baked Oatmeal, Cajun Breakfast Casserole, cheesy grits and shrimp, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Special treat of flavored cappuccinos, cinnamon, Irish cream, white chocolate caramel or French vanilla . Enjoy!
Quoting 572. aislinnpaps:
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone! It's just barely 31 degrees with a wind chill of 20 degrees. Expected high today is 33. The rain has temporarily stopped but it looks like ice heading our way from Texas. Deck outside is iced in places, DIL almost fell coming in my back door.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Fruity Baked Oatmeal, Spicy Scrambled Egg Sandwiches, apple cinnamon waffles, Corned Beef Hash with Fried Eggs, Glazed Cinnamon Rolls with Pecan Swirls, Omelet Souffl, Oversize Breakfast Biscuits with sausage patties and strawberry jelly on the side, sweet and spicy bacon, Apple-Pecan Baked Oatmeal, Cajun Breakfast Casserole, cheesy grits and shrimp, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Special treat of flavored cappuccinos, cinnamon, Irish cream, white chocolate caramel or French vanilla . Enjoy!
Can you please WU-Mail me some Apple-Pecan Baked Oatmeal..Sounds healthy and delicious.
I hate nature with a passion.Stink'in snowstorm has to just so happen Wens-Thurs.
This ones for you Wash...And many other folks..

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 AM EST Tue Feb 11 2014

Valid 12Z Tue Feb 11 2014 - 12Z Thu Feb 13 2014

...A major winter storm will impact locations from Texas to the Southeast
coast on Tuesday before it moves up the Eastern Seaboard on Wednesday...

...Heavy rains and mountain snows expected across the Pacific Northwest
and Northern Rockies...

Widespread precipitation will continue to develop to the north of a
frontal boundary stalled out in the northern Gulf and off the Southeast
coast on Tuesday. A fresh supply of Arctic air in place will allow for
snow within the northern fringe of the precipitation shield...and warm
Gulf air overrunning the boundary should also cause a wide swath of
freezing rain to the south of the snow axis. Conditions will really begin
to deteriorate Tuesday night into Wednesday as a vigorous piece of energy
ejecting out of the Plains helps spin up a surface low along the stalled
frontal boundary. The deepening low will draw additional moisture out of
the Gulf...which will fuel heavier precipitation across the Southeast and
Carolinas...including significant ice and snow accumulations. Once the
intensifying surface low moves off the Southeast coast and begins its
track up the Eastern Seaboard Wednesday night...winter weather will start
lifting northward into the northern Mid-Atlantic states. Please refer to
the Winter Weather Desk's Heavy Snow Discussion (QPFHSD) for more details
on this event.

Active weather will continue across the Pacific Northwest and Northern
Rockies the next few days...where persistent onshore flow...weak impulses
of energy aloft...and orographics will combine to produce widespread
moderate to heavy precipitation over the northwestern corner of the
Nation. Snow levels will be relatively high across the region...but heavy
accumulations are still expected along the higher elevations of the
Cascades and Rockies.

Light snows will be possible with a cold front dropping through the north
central U.S. Tuesday and Wednesday. Limited moisture should keep
accumulations to a minimum.


Gerhardt
2-3 inches of ice for Central SC would be utterly crippling. You only need 1/4-1/2 inch to cause serious problems.

Quoting 575. hydrus:
This ones for you Wash...And many other folks..

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 AM EST Tue Feb 11 2014

Valid 12Z Tue Feb 11 2014 - 12Z Thu Feb 13 2014

...A major winter storm will impact locations from Texas to the Southeast
coast on Tuesday before it moves up the Eastern Seaboard on Wednesday...

...Heavy rains and mountain snows expected across the Pacific Northwest
and Northern Rockies...

Widespread precipitation will continue to develop to the north of a
frontal boundary stalled out in the northern Gulf and off the Southeast
coast on Tuesday. A fresh supply of Arctic air in place will allow for
snow within the northern fringe of the precipitation shield...and warm
Gulf air overrunning the boundary should also cause a wide swath of
freezing rain to the south of the snow axis. Conditions will really begin
to deteriorate Tuesday night into Wednesday as a vigorous piece of energy
ejecting out of the Plains helps spin up a surface low along the stalled
frontal boundary. The deepening low will draw additional moisture out of
the Gulf...which will fuel heavier precipitation across the Southeast and
Carolinas...including significant ice and snow accumulations. Once the
intensifying surface low moves off the Southeast coast and begins its
track up the Eastern Seaboard Wednesday night...winter weather will start
lifting northward into the northern Mid-Atlantic states. Please refer to
the Winter Weather Desk's Heavy Snow Discussion (QPFHSD) for more details
on this event.

Active weather will continue across the Pacific Northwest and Northern
Rockies the next few days...where persistent onshore flow...weak impulses
of energy aloft...and orographics will combine to produce widespread
moderate to heavy precipitation over the northwestern corner of the
Nation. Snow levels will be relatively high across the region...but heavy
accumulations are still expected along the higher elevations of the
Cascades and Rockies.

Light snows will be possible with a cold front dropping through the north
central U.S. Tuesday and Wednesday. Limited moisture should keep
accumulations to a minimum.


Gerhardt
I don't care for this storm.All plans have to be put off until another month now.
Quoting 576. nash36:
2-3 inches of ice for Central SC would be utterly crippling. You only need 1/4-1/2 inch to cause serious problems.

Very true..There will likely be slush and snow on that, making a already bad situation worse. I hope people heed warnings and prepare.
Current conditions:

Boulevard Neighborhood, Athens
Elevation
700 ft
Station Select
Now
RainRain Mist
Temperature
34.3 °F
Feels Like 34 °F

Buckhead Forest, Atlanta
Elevation
1010 ft
Station Select
Now
Light RainLight Rain Mist
Temperature
35.9 °F

I wonder how the mid-levels are behaving, do we have a warm inversion layer, or is it cooling up there?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Very light snow beginning here in north Charlotte. Wasn't expecting anything from this 1st part of the system so I'll take whatever we can get :)
Hi From Southern Europe on a wild and windy day but not too bad really, simple gales and rain but nothing out of the ordinary.

For tomorrow up in Great Britain they should be getting a very nasty storm and I have the projection link for it here:-


Link

The news yesterday was saying that some of the houses affected by the flooding have been de water since Christmas!
No end in sight yet to the storms but the public are screaming for government resignations concerning their problems.
Long way out, but interesting.
Quoting 578. hydrus:
Very true..There will likely be slush and snow on that, making a already bad situation worse. I hope people heed warnings and prepare.


Yeah, that much ice is almost unthinkable...
Quoting 551. georgevandenberghe:



Congress working, Hell freezing over, flying pigs.



You forgot about peace in the middle east.
586. jpsb
Quoting 584. afweatherguy86:


Yeah, that much ice is almost unthinkable...



this is what it looks like

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WI41yWgqglg&featur e=share

if the above does not work google

Snowstorm disaster in Slovenia
Tree limbs coming down now in the Charleston area. Power flickering. Still have the live feed up for now.