WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Groundhog Says: 6 More Weeks of Winter

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:34 PM GMT on February 03, 2014

Sunday had a Super mix of winter prognostications from North America’s bevy of rodent winter prognosticators, who emerged from their burrows on Groundhog Day to offer their predictions of an early or late end to winter. America’s most famous groundhog, Punxsutawney Phil, in Punxsutawney, PA had this to say:

“A Super Bowl winner I will not predict,
But my weather forecast, you cannot contradict,
That’s not a football lying beside me
It’s my shadow you see
So, six more weeks of winter it shall be!”



Figure 1. Canada's famous albino groundhog named Wiarton Willy from the town of Wiarton, Ontario. Image credit: wunderphotographer pincollector1.

Results of other groundhog forecasters
Wiarton Willie in Ontario, Canada saw his shadow, so 6 more weeks of winter.

General Beauregard Lee in Lilburn, GA, did not see his shadow, predicting an early end to winter.

Staten Island Chuck, AKA Charles G. Hogg, of the Staten Island Zoo, New York City saw his shadow, so six more weeks of winter. Chuck was dropped by New York City mayor Bill de Blasio, but was unharmed.

Buckeye Chuck in Ohio did not see his shadow, predicting an early end to winter.   

Shubenacadie Sam in Nova Scotia did not see his shadow, predicting an early end to winter.

Winnepeg Willow in Manitoba, Canada, did not see his shadow, predicting an early end to winter.

Dunkirk Dave in Dunkirk, NY, the world's second longest prognosticating groundhog, did not see his shadow, predicting an early end to winter. 

A quick look back at NOAA’s winter forecast issued in November
NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) analyzed Punxsutawney Phil’s forecasts over the past 26 years (thanks to Doyle Rice of USA Today for pointing this out.) If we evaluate just the eleven years both when the departure of February and March temperatures from average over the contiguous U.S. were both of the same sign, Phil had only three correct forecasts, and eight blown forecasts. NOAA concludes that “It really isn't a 'bright' idea to take a measure such as a groundhog's shadow and use it as a predictive meteorological tool for the entire United States.” But how well does NOAA forecast the winter weather? NOAA’s annual Winter Outlook, released on November 21, called for increased chances of a warmer than average winter across much of the Southern U.S. and New England, and a cooler than average winter across portions of the Northern Plains near the Canadian border. NOAA relied heavily on climate trends over the past fifteen years and long-range computer models such as their CFS forecast model to predict this year's winter weather. While winter is not yet over so we cannot yet fully verify this forecast, we can get a good idea of how well it is doing by taking a look at the actual departure of temperature from average for December and January (Figure 3.) The region NOAA gave the highest chance for a cold winter, the Upper Midwest, was indeed the area that experienced the coldest temperatures, relative to average. However, the two areas they predicted would have the best chances of above average temperatures—the South and New England—did not, so NOAA gets no points there so far. The latest NOAA 8 - 14 day outlook calls for a winter pattern very similar to what was observed in December and January: the east half of the national colder than average, and the west half warmer than average. We’ll call the verification of NOAA’s winter temperature forecast inconclusive at this point. Their forecast for precipitation, though, is right on so far over the Southwest U.S., where they called for drought to persist and intensify.


Figure 2. Forecast temperature and precipitation for the U.S. for the winter of 2013 - 2014 as predicted in the NOAA Winter Outlook, released on November 21, 2013.


Figure 3. Departure of temperature from a 1981 - 2010 average over the Contiguous U.S. during December 2013 and January 2014. An unusually kinked jet stream pattern brought colder than average temperatures to the eastern half of the country, and warmer than average conditions to the western half. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

I'm in Atlanta this week for the 94th annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society. I plan on being at Stu Ostro's poster on crazy jet stream shenanigans, being presented at 2:30pm Wednesday in Hall C3, if any of you reading this want to stop by and meet.

Jeff Masters

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Doc.
Thanks Dr. Masters
Thanks Doc !

Is it April First LOL!

I have to admit I find this groundhog myth very intriguing ...
Thank you, Doc. Snow starting to fall here along the coast. With temps now drifting south of freezing the flakes are getting smaller and accumulations have begun here. Have a safe day to all those who must travel. Fortunately for me work was outside today, so here I am on the couch!!
a little early today

thanks for the update doc have a good day at AMS get together
hydrus still showing those scary pictures iam not scare hydrus

ok maybe a little
Would this be scary too ?



LOL!!!
Quoting 8. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
hydrus still showing those scary pictures iam not scare hydrus

ok maybe a little
This system will have plenty of energy.
Quoting 9. VR46L:
Would this be scary too ?



LOL!!!
give up vr or I will send ya a hurricane force wind storm when its done with me
Quoting 9. VR46L:
Would this be scary too ?



LOL!!!
Hope that is not all ice...and there is the possibility.
not that you have had a few already this year
Quoting 12. hydrus:
Hope that is not all ice...and there is the possibility.
i have had all the ice I've ever wanted I don't need anymore
Quoting 14. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i have had all the ice I've ever wanted I don't need anymore
Middle Tennessee has not had a severe ice storm in 20 years. This pattern favors such an event...I hope we are spared.
Quoting 11. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
give up vr or I will send ya a hurricane force wind storm when its done with me


It usually happens anyway ! In for a bad bad week here

Quoting 12. hydrus:
Hope that is not all ice...and there is the possibility.


Now thats a scary thought LMAO ..... but it is to stay cold except in Florida for the next 10 days !
ya don't want that stuff hydrus I would not wish that on anybody
Cant say I like this either.
12z nam hr 30



looking like its getting its act together fast
Quoting 18. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ya don't want that stuff hydrus I would not wish that on anybody
Greetings Keep..I have mentioned before that the roads here are extremely dangerous even when the weather is good....Snow is problematic, ice is very dangerous.
Quoting 19. hydrus:
Cant say I like this either.


Neither do I .....
Valentine's Day, or
the vicinity therof
This has some moisture to work with..Thunderstorms will be in the forecast..
heavy snow and lightning at my house in new haven,conn 2 inches of snow in one hour
Models vary greatly in the medium range for the AO.
Quoting 25. hydrus:
This has some moisture to work with..Thunderstorms will be in the forecast..


Yeap



Nor,Easter possible..
Quoting 29. VR46L:


Yeap



We will probably get some of that. What a ride its been already.
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET February 3 2014
=====================================

Prospective cyclogenesis between 55E and 60E:
-----------------------------------------------

In this area, the MT axis is expected to be steered southward on Tuesday and Wednesday in relationship with a baroclinic low shipping between 30S and 40S in the south of La Réunion. Environmental conditions are expected to clearly improve only after Tuesday, intensification phase could occur to a relative proximity of Mascarenes (probably less than 400 km in the north or northeast). This prospective Low is expected to track southward until Wednesday morning then take a south southwestward or southwestward track from this moment and so could evolve near Mascarenes at a Tropical Depression or Moderate Tropical Storm stage. However, it is too early to precise the future intensity of this suspect low that does not exists nowadays and that is only expected to develop.

The likelihood that a Tropical Depression develops North of Mascarenes is moderate on Tuesday. It becomes high on Wednesday and Thursday.

Prospective cyclogenesis south of the Chagos (east of 65E):
-----------------------------------------------

In this area, the powerful subtropical highs (1030 hPa) limits southward the extension of the MT
that is expected to keep north of 15S until Wednesday. In relationship with a highly efficient low level inflow (especially from Wednesday) and very favorable environmental conditions aloft, a low is expected to deepen regularly from Tuesday. Undergoing competing steering flows, northwest monsoon flow and East trade winds, the low is expected to very slowly shift westward at first. From Friday, it should take a southward then southeastward.

The likelihood that a Tropical Depression develops over the central part of the basin (south of the Chagos archipelago) is moderate on Tuesday. It becomes high on Wednesday and Thursday.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER TC EDNA (10U)
11:14 PM EST February 3 2014
============================================

At 10:00 PM EST, Tropical Low, Former Edna (1000 hPa) located at 14.0S 155.6E or 1100 km east northeast of Cairns has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving east at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/2.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS 15.2S 158.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 17.4S 160.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 22.4S 162.5E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS 25.1S 162.7E - 55 knots (CAT 2)

Additional Information
========================
A relatively small sized system and embedded in the monsoon trough, Ex-TC Edna continued to maintain deep convection near its center in the last 12 hours. The system centre was located primarily with the latest ASCAT pass and has been moving eastwards but is expected to take a more southeastwards track in the next 12 to 24 hours and then curve towards the south due to an upper trough to its southwest.

Outflow remains very good in the northern and eastern quadrants. The system is currently in a moderate shear zone however movement over the next 24 hours will see the system in a reduced shear environment. This may enable the cloud structures to improve with gales wrapping around a little further than just the northeast quadrant. The current intensity is T=2.0 though a Dvorak analysis was not possible due to a lack of distinct convective features.

Some model guidance suggests the system will intensify as it moves past New Caledonia, despite an increase in shear.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #15
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER TC FLETCHER (08U)
11:05 PM EST February 3 2014
============================================

At 10:00 PM EST, Tropical Low, Former Fletcher (996 hPa) located at 17.0S 141.2E or 195 km east northeast of Burketown and 50 km south of Gilbert River Mouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving north northwest at 3 knots.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Fletcher crossed the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast between Karumba and Gilbert River Mouth earlier this evening, and has recently become slow moving over land, with the centre just inland from the coast.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is likely in the Gulf Country district, mainly in near coastal parts over the next couple of days. Kowanyama has recorded 147 mm of rain since 9am this morning.

Due to the weakening of the system over land, GALES are no longer expected between Burketown and Kowanyama this evening.

The system is forecast to remain below cyclone intensity over land tonight, but then recurve towards to the west during Tuesday, and re-enter southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters; if this occurs, the system may redevelop into a tropical cyclone. As a result GALES may again be possible between Gilbert River Mouth and Mornington Island on Tuesday, extending to coastal and island communities between the Northern Territory border and Mornington Island late Tuesday or Wednesday.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS 17.1S 140.9E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 17.5S 139.9E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 16.7S 136.5E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 16.5S 137.2E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
========================
Mornington radar shows a small and tight circulation now on the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast north of Karumba.

Convection rapidly developed earlier this morning and has persisted, although well defined curved bands have been transient, and generally wrapping a maximum of 0.5 Dvorak estimate of FT/CI of 2.5 based on ill-defined curved band signature [0.5 wrap] on infrared imagery, however Dvorak trend is not particularly applicable with the continued presence of nearby landmass.

The motion was easterly under the influence of the monsoonal flow to the north today, however as forecast this has changed during this evening, with the system becoming slow-moving. Numerical models are consistent in depicting a reversal of direction towards the west during Tuesday, as a mid-level ridge to the south builds. This may allow the system access to the warm waters to re-intensify it as a cyclone prior to moving over land once again and weakening. By Thursday it may interact with a second low approaching from the Top End of northern Australia. This interaction may be Fujiwara-like or even vortex merger, although the system will be overland.

The only restriction to intensification is the proximity of landmass; the broad scale environment is favorable for development if the system can place itself sufficiently over water - diffluent upper wind pattern, low wind shear and very warm sea surface temperatures of around 30-32C.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================
A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from the Mornington Island to Gilbert River Mouth.

A Cyclone WATCH remains current for coastal areas from Northern Territory/Queensland border to Mornington Island
This will likely include a slight risk tomorrow..

Day 2 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 am CST Monday Feb 03 2014


Valid 041200z - 051200z


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...


...
a shortwave trough will progress northeastward from the southern High Plains to
the Midwest. This will induce weak surface cyclogenesis along a warm
front moving inland from the central Gulf Coast. This cyclone should
be located over the Tennessee Valley Tuesday evening and will continue northeastward
towards the central Appalachians along an occluded front...as the warm
sector becomes pinched off S/east of the southern Appalachians. Trailing
portion of the front will advance eastward as a cold front by early Wednesday
as an expansive anticyclone builds along the Lee of The Rockies.


..parts of the deep south...
Uncertainty still lies over the degree of moisture recovery behind
the warm front advancing northward given a modified cp air mass intruding
into the Gulf on sun-Mon. With only a 2-day separation between
shortwave troughs...this short period usually supports a less
aggressive influx of Gulf moisture inland. But consensus of guidance
suggests lower 60s surface dew points will reach as far north as northern
MS/al. Poor to marginal tropospheric lapse rates...around 5-6 degree
c/km...may very well limit potential for charge separation from
surface-based parcels. Nevertheless...very strong low/deep-layer
wind profiles and modest strengthening of frontal convergence could
support a low-topped convective band along the developing cold front
in the late afternoon/evening. Even with near-neutral low-level
lapse rates...a risk for localized damaging winds may become
realized. Otherwise...low-level warm air advection with scant elevated buoyancy
should aid in isolated embedded thunderstorms within a broad swath of
precipitation.


.Grams.. 02/03/2014



...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL EVENT TODAY...
...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM POSSIBLE FOR ALL BUT EASTERN LONG
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

NJZ006-105>108-NYZ072>075-176>179-031715-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0002.140205T0500Z-140205T2300Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0003.140203T1000Z-140204T0000Z/
HUDSON-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-
SOUTHERN NASSAU-
410 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...NASSAU COUNTY AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW TODAY. SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 8 INCHES TODAY. 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW...ALONG WITH ICE ACCRETION OF A TENTH TO QUARTER
OF AN INCH OF ICE...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES TODAY.

* TIMING...A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL CHANGE QUICKLY TO ALL
SNOW AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES...IN PARTICULAR DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS TODAY. SNOW WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL TODAY.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 AM EST Mon Feb 03 2014

Valid 12Z Mon Feb 03 2014 - 12Z Wed Feb 05 2014

...Heavy rain possible over parts of the Northern Mid-Atlantic...

...Pockets of snow or sleet/freezing rain could develop across parts of
the Tennessee Valley...

...Temperatures will be 15 to 30 degrees below average over the Northern
High Plains...

Multiple waves of low pressure will move along a quasi-stationary boundary
across the Southeastern portion of the country. The first wave of low
pressure over Western North Carolina will move quickly out over the
Western Atlantic by Monday evening. The system will produce moderate snow
over parts of the Northern Mid-Atlantic moving into Southern New England
by Monday evening. Moderate to heavy rain will also develop over parts of
Southern Mid-Atlantic and Central/Southern Appalachians that will likewise
move eastward off the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Monday night. Pockets of
rain/freezing rain will develop over parts of the Tennessee Valley on
Monday morning. By Monday evening, light rain will be over parts of the
Southeast.

The second wave of low pressure will develop over parts of the
Western/Central Gulf Coast on Tuesday morning and move northeastward to
the Tennessee Valley by Tuesday evening. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico
will reach northward to the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. Showers and
thunderstorms will develop along the Central Gulf Coast Tuesday morning,
expanding northward into the Tennessee Valley by Tuesday evening.
Moderate snow will develop over parts of the Ohio Valley into parts of the
Northern Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday evening. Moderate to heavy rain will
develop over parts of the Southern Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic also
by Tuesday evening. Additionally on Tuesday evening, a pocket of
rain/freezing rain over southeastern portion of the Middle Mississippi
Valley.

Meanwhile, upper-level energy over the West Coast will move eastward to
the Middle Mississippi Valley/Central Plains by Tuesday. The energy will
produce snow over parts of the Intermountain Region into parts of the
Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains on Monday, with some coastal rain
along parts of the Pacific Northwest Coast. In addition, snow will
develop over parts of the Great Basin into the Central Rockies. The snow
will consolidate over the Central Rockies and onto the parts of the
Central/Southern Plains by Tuesday morning before reducing in areal
coverage to the Central Rockies by Tuesday evening. Rain will also
develop over parts of the Southern Plains on Tuesday morning, with a small
pocket of rain/freezing rain over parts of Southeastern Oklahoma.
Elsewhere, rain an embedded thunderstorms will develop over part of
Southern California Coast on Monday morning, due in part to an upper-level
low.


Ziegenfelder
Winter Storm Warning

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
738 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014

PAZ033>036-056-057-059-063>066-031800-
/O.CON.KCTP.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-140203T2100Z/
SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-PERRY-DAUPHIN-LE BANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOMERSET...BEDFORD...MCCONNELLSBURG...
CHAMBERSBURG...NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...L EBANON...
CARLISLE...GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER
738 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...EXTREME SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL THIS MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

Feb 12-13-14 for the big cities on the east coast, looks like.

Of course these can just be wind rain events, even at the last minute -- like today.

On my side of 95, heavy rain.

Just west and a tad north and they have thunder snow :-)
Thanks for another insightful update Dr. Jeff... have fun in Atlanta!
Quoting 31. hydrus:
We will probably get some of that. What a ride its been already.


At least, its probably too cold in TN at the moment for real severe event there
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
109 AM EST MON FEB 03 2014

VALID 12Z THU FEB 06 2014 - 12Z MON FEB 10 2014

...ACTIVE BUT COLD PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE...

...POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR ANOTHER EAST COAST STORM LATE IN THE
PERIOD...


...OVERVIEW...

POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES AT 500MB CONTINUE TO PERSIST IN THE HIGH
LATITUDES... STRETCHING FROM ITS CENTER JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
BERING STRAIT AS AN IMPRESSIVE +3 STD DEV CLOSED HIGH... >576 DM
HEIGHTS NORTH OF 70N BY FRI/D4 IS CERTAINLY IMPRESSIVE... ACROSS
THE NORTH POLE INTO ARCTIC RUSSIA. THIS TELECONNECTS TO CONTINUED
BROAD TROUGHING THROUGH THE CONUS AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND ONE
MORE DEFINED CLOSED LOW MAKE THEIR JOURNEYS FROM WEST TO EAST.



...PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE...

THE FORECAST EVOLUTION HINGES ON A COUPLE FEATURES THAT HAVE NOT
BEEN WELL-HANDLED BY THE MODELS IN RECENT CYCLES... SO A
CONSENSUS/ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH WAS PRUDENT. USED THE 12Z
ECMWF/UKMET/ECENS/GEFS MEANS WITH THE 18Z GFS DAYS 3-5. CONFIDENCE
IS ABOUT AVERAGE OVERALL DESPITE SOME LINGERING OUTLIERS... NAMELY
THE 12Z/02 CANADIAN AND MOST OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... THOUGH
SMALLER DIFFERENCES QUICKLY ESCALATE IN TIME. POTENTIAL UPSIDE IS
LARGE /I.E. SPREAD IS MORE THAN NORMAL/ AS ARE THE IMPACTS. FOCUS
WILL START IN THE WEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES INITIALLY AS A CLOSED
LOW DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE INTERIOR PAC NW. CANADIAN MODEL
HAS BEEN THE OUTLIER OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS BUT ITS 00Z/03
RUN... NOT SEEN BEFORE FINALIZING THE FRONTS/PRESSURES... FINALLY
JOINED THE CONSENSUS. THAT ENERGY SHOULD PUSH ONTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AND HEAD TOWARD THE EAST COAST SUN-MON/D6-7.
SFC REFLECTION WILL SHOW A COLD PUSH THROUGH THE ROCKIES...
REORGANIZING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND THEN MOVING EAST AND
NORTHEASTWARD. ENSEMBLES SHOW A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS FROM A
FLAT WAVE SHEARING QUICKLY EASTWARD TO A WELL-DEFINED NOR'EASTER.
AFTER DISMISSING THE CMC/CMCE AS TOO QUICK... OPTED TO SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SLIGHTLY QUICKER/WEAKER 12Z/02 ECENS MEAN
AND THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER/DEEPER 12Z/02 GEFS MEAN WHICH WERE FURTHER
BOOKENDED BY THEIR DETERMINISTIC RUNS. IN-HOUSE CLUSTERING
ALGORITHM ALSO FAVORS A COMPROMISE POSITION BETWEEN THESE TWO
MEANS. THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW THROUGH CANADA SHOWS MUCH LARGER
SPREAD THAN NORMAL AND WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT PART IN THE
FORECAST. FOR NOW... AN ENSEMBLE BLEND SUN-MON/D6-7 SEEMS
APPROPRIATE AND RECENT 90-DAY VERIFICATION SHOWS THE ECENS MEAN
AND GEFS MEAN ARE THE BEST PERFORMING MODELS AT DAY 7 OVER THE
CONUS.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET IN THE EAST
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WHILE THE WEST WILL COOL DOWN
BEHIND THE UPPER LOW AND SFC COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD BUT GENERALLY
LIGHT TO ENHANCED MODERATE RAIN/SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WEST. NEXT
SYSTEM BY SUN-MON/D6-7 SHOULD HAVE MUCH MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
AS THE MOISTURE CONNECTION EXTENDS BACK INTO THE SUBTROPICS.
PW
AXIS SHOULD AIM TOWARD NORCAL INITIALLY THEN SINK SOUTHWARD AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. IN THE EAST... MOISTURE RETURN OUT OF
THE GULF SAT/D5 WILL SUPPORT PRECIPITATION EXPANDING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC INTO SUN/D6. A STRONGER SYSTEM WOULD
LIKELY MEAN A SLOWER EXIT OF PRECIPITATION SUN/D6 FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC OR MON/D7 ACROSS THE NORTHEAST... BUT RANGE OF
IMPACTS ARE TOO BROAD TO GET INTO MUCH DETAIL YET.


FRACASSO
Thank you doc for this nice weather-animal entry, lol!

-----------------------------

Strong earthquake hit the island of Kefalonia in western Greece this morning - the second one in between a week! BTW, our doc spent his first european vacation on this very beautiful island maybe four years ago, and I went there the following year. People over there were concerned about a strong earthquake happening, as those quakes use to strike the island every some decades (1953 nearly every house on the island was destroyed).

Powerful 6.1-Magnitude Earthquake Strikes Kefalonia, Greece
TWC, Published: Feb 3, 2014, 9:05 AM EST


Harbour of Lixouri, Kefalonia

----------------

Edit: When I visited Kefalonia/Cephalonia I drove this coastal road above one of the lovely beaches (Myrtos Beach) several times. You can see in the video below the huge scar of a landslide, caused by the earthquake a week ago. Will be difficult to make the road safe again, I guess:

5.5" of snow now. :D
Folks in Texas might want to heed their local warnings friday....
Quoting VR46L:
Thanks Doc !

Is it April First LOL!

I have to admit I find this groundhog myth very intriguing ...

Its really just for a little bit of fun in early February :p
this coming weekend...midlantic states...
northeast,one storm after another wow.....
Like the official Superbowl predictions... NOAA's winter weather prediction this year, was a bust.

Not that I can do any better.

Hope everyone on Kefalonia is OK.
Quoting 49. ricderr:



Is that the Dr. McCoy groundhog, ricderr?
Is that the Dr. McCoy groundhog, ricderr



LMAO
Going to be a busy next week or so, checking in from south shore of Long Island, New York!

Winter storm warning for today, 5-8 inches, and a winter storm WATCH for Tuesday night into Wednesday.

School cancelled today for all 3 of my kids.
Barb
Quoting 54. longislander102:
Going to be a busy next week or so, checking in from south shore of Long Island, New York!

Winter storm warning for today, 5-8 inches, and a winter storm WATCH for Tuesday night into Wednesday.

School cancelled today for all 3 of my kids.
Barb
its going to be a crazy next 7 days
heavy snow and heavy rain off the coast
The zig-zag of ENSO continues.

CPC 2/3/14 update down to -0.7C<

It's practically pouring snow in New Jersey today. The snow is falling just as hard as the precipitation rates you see in the rain on the map. Very heavy, wet snow. Good for snowmen. Began accumulating over the rain right after changeover, very impressive sight.


This map is slightly outdated...as the R/S line has penetrated into Delaware and further south into NJ.
Phil was at least right for this week...
My back is killing me. XD That snow is quite heavy
Give me a break !




Quoting VR46L:
Give me a break !






Poor UK and Ireland. It seems like you guys have been brutally hit over and over this Winter.
Looking like the SE (eastern NC, SC, GA) is probably done with winter weather for the season...yall agree?
Only in America do we accept weather predictions by a rodent, but deny climate change evidence by scientists...

JR
Winter Weather Blamed for Pelican and Sea Turtle Deaths in Florida Panhandle

First Posted: Feb 03, 2014 10:19 AM EST

Wildlife along the Florida Panhandle has recently experienced significant injuries and deaths due to a winter storm that struck the area.

According to The Miami Herald, more than 130 cold-stunned endangered and threatened sea turtles were rescued Thursday and Friday with a dozen more found dead along the Gulf Islands National Seashore.
"With all the bridges being closed, we were not able to do what we really needed to do," Seashore biologist Mark Nicholas said, via the news organization. "Time is of the essence."
According to the Environmental Protection Agency lab on the Pensacola Beach, sea turtles go into a catatonic state after they suffer from the reptile version of hypothermia. Due to the dangerous weather conditions, rescue workers had difficulties getting to the animals in time.
"With all the bridges being closed, we were not able to do what we really needed to do," Nicholas said, via The Pensacola News Journal. "Time is of the essence."
Freezing rain and low tides were most likely to blame for the death of much wildlife near the area, according to FWC wildlife biologist Alley Foley, who adds that unlike marine mammals-including dolphins and manatees-sea turtles do not carry the ability to keep themselves warm.

At temperatures of less than 50 degrees Fahrenheit, researchers note that sea turtles may have had difficulty moving through water and were pushed to marsh areas that could cause death due to harsh floating conditions.
Foley also said that he saw dead lady fish, sea urchins and horseshoe crabs while searching for the sea turtles. Five pelicans were also rescued from hypothermia on the rescue mission.
The sanctuary staff remains prepared to take in any birds or wildlife suffering from the cold, according to Wildlife Sanctuary director of Northwest Florida, Dorothy Kaufman.
Quoting 63. Doppler22:


Poor UK and Ireland. It seems like you guys have been brutally hit over and over this Winter.


Yeah , hoping for a Quiet hurricane season , so that we can get a break from the wind and rain that comes to us when the tropics are busy ... last summer was beautiful LOL!
Quoting 65. ricderr:
Only in America do we accept weather predictions by a rodent, but deny climate change evidence by scientists...

JR

The rodents been around longer...maybe?
Special Weather Statement

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1005 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014

WVZ047-031745-
RANDOLPH WV-
1005 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NORTHERN RANDOLPH COUNTY UNTIL 1245
PM EST...

AT 942 AM EST...A REPORTED ICE JAM ON LEADING CREEK IN MONTROSE IS
CAUSING LEADING CREEK TO COME OUT OF ITS BANKS.

AN INCH OF RAIN FELL FROM YESTERDAY INTO THIS MORNING CAUSING SOME
RISES ON LEADING CREEK AND BREAKING UP ANY ICE THAT HAD FORMED. THE
JAM IS CURRENTLY AT THE BRIDGE IN MONTROSE WHICH IS NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF ROUTE 219 AND SALT LICK ROAD. WATER HAS BEEN
REPORTED IN FIELDS AND IN SOME YARDS AND NOT AFFECTING ANY
BUILDINGS. ALSO, WATER WAS RUNNING OVER THE ICE AND FLOWING
DOWNSTREAM. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE EXTENT OF THE CURRENT WATER
PROBLEMS.

THE RAIN HAS CHANGED TO SNOW AND ANY ADDITIONAL RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE
SLOW THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

YOU MAY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BY POSTING YOUR REPORT TO THE
CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR
BY USING THE TWITTER HASHTAG...NWSRLX.

LAT...LON 3881 7972 3890 8010 3895 8003 3898 7989
3908 7986 3912 7982 3909 7978 3904 7977
3900 7956 3898 7951


Phooey, 45.1F again.

Quoting ricderr:
Only in America do we accept weather predictions by a rodent, but deny climate change evidence by scientists...

JR

Just goes to prove something or the other…..

:)":))
3 inches of snow at 10am
Still lots of time for things to change, but at this point it looks like sleet/ice are going to be a bigger issue for the DC Metro area next weekend. Temps look to be in the mid 30's.
Quoting 21. hydrus:
Greetings Keep..I have mentioned before that the roads here are extremely dangerous even when the weather is good....Snow is problematic, ice is very dangerous.
Narrow roads, ditches instead of shoulders and this lovely guardrails which don't offer much in the way of impact cushioning.. when I first saw these I figured the TN DOT was trying to discourage anyone from even thinking about running off the road in the first place. Forget those nice water filled rubber trash cans that actually protect people from getting skewered, no, no, here in TN if you run off the road and hit one of these battering rams you better have your seat belt on, airbags, insurance and a will..
Quoting 14. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i have had all the ice I've ever wanted I don't need anymore


Haha we may be going on for another round at the end of this week in Central Texas for the third time in three weeks as well. UT is going to have to change their slogan from "Hook'em Horns" to "Tack'em Reindeer" if this keeps up.
Quoting 65. ricderr:
Only in America do we accept weather predictions by a rodent, but deny climate change evidence by scientists...

JR
hmmmmm.... define rodent?
Feb .3, 2014 11:40 am ET

Northeast | View Regional Video


- Maximus dumps snow from West Virginia to New Jersey and Delaware and as far north as New York City, Long Island and southern New England. The southern side of this snow band from northern Virginia to south Jersey and the Delmarva may initially start as rain. Southern Virginia will stay rain.

- Snow accumulations today could reach as high as 8 inches in New York City. Six to ten inches or more will fall across northeast West Virginia, the northern tip of Virginia, western and central Maryland and southern Pennsylvania.

- Philadelphia metro could pick up as much as 5 inches of snow.

- Accumulations in the greater Washington Metro will be less than 1" with the highest D.C. totals north and west of downtown.

- Highs today will range from the teens and 20s along the Canadian border to the middle 40s in southern Virginia. Under the snow, temperatures will mainly be in the low to middle 30s.

- Winter Storm Nika arrives Tuesday night and Wednesday with heavy snow across northern Pennsylvania, Upstate New York, northern Massachusetts and northern New England. The I-95 corridor from southern Connecticut southward will transition from snow and a wintry mix to rain.
Quoting 76. JNTenne:
Narrow roads, ditches instead of shoulders and this lovely guardrails which don't offer much in the way of impact cushioning.. when I first saw these I figured the TN DOT was trying to discourage anyone from even thinking about running off the road in the first place. Forget those nice water filled rubber trash cans that actually protect people from getting skewered, no, no, here in TN if you run off the road and hit one of these battering rams you better have your seat belt on, airbags, insurance and a will..



aren't those designed to shear off on impact?

pretty sure it meets Federal Standards for Guardrails
So that means The Ground Hog has better track record than NOAA as they have really blown this years forecast as well as the last several. The fact that Doc continues to post the NOAA forecast is besides me.

We just had one of the Coldest January's in years across the US and one of the wettest in years across Florida. Again time to give up on the NOAA forecast as they have really blown this years Winter Outlook.

Quoting 65. ricderr:
Only in America do we accept weather predictions by a rodent, but deny climate change evidence by scientists...

JR


I agree. Just silly.
Quoting 3. VR46L:
Thanks Doc !

Is it April First LOL!

I have to admit I find this groundhog myth very intriguing ...


You can blame this on the German people. They had a similar thing in the old country and when they came here all they could find to use was groundhogs...
This year was on of the biggest bust I have ever seen from NOAA as they weren,t even close to getting a forecast right this year.
Thanks for the new Post Dr. Masters.

Wishing nice weather for the people in Greece.
It's overcast and 72 degrees with wind gusts over 30 mph. A week ago, we were in the mid-20s with freezing rain. Who kicked out January and threw in April?
Quoting 88. TropicalAnalystwx13:
It's overcast and 72 degrees with wind gusts over 30 mph. A week ago, we were in the mid-20s with freezing rain. Who kicked out January and threw in April?
its your jan thaw enjoy

its but for a little while
Thank you Dr. Masters
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
951 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014

...TWO ROUNDS OF WINTRY WEATHER...

.TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEK.
THE FIRST WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY BUT BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOW SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE. THE SECOND
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
PASS NEAR OUR SOUTH COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SECOND STORM WILL
BRING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW AS WELL AS SOME SLEET
OR FREEZING RAIN.

MAZ020-021-RIZ003>007-032300-
/O.CON.KBOX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-140204T0000Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.WS.A.0004.140205T0500Z-140205T2300Z/
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-WESTERN KENT RI-
EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...
MATTAPOISETT...WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL...
NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...NEWPORT
951 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATION...SOUTH COASTAL RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* TIMING...THE ADVISORY IS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WATCH IS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

* IMPACTS...SLIPPERY TRAVEL THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH MAY LEAD TO DIFFICULT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ISSUED FOR RELATIVELY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. DRIVERS SHOULD ALLOW EXTRA TRAVEL TIME AND REMAIN
ALERT FOR ICY SPOTS ON ROADS...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
ICE ARE POSSIBLE. PLAN TO HAVE TRAVEL COMPLETED TUESDAY EVENING.
CONSIDER ALTERING TRAVEL PLANS FOR WEDNESDAY. STAY TUNED FOR
UPDATED INFORMATION.

&&

$$
80 degrees here in Boynton Beach... Only a few days in the 40's here..
.. I think the cold is over, for me a least...
7-day Tampa Bay area................
Quoting 92. PalmBeachWeather:
80 degrees here in Boynton Beach... Only a few days in the 40's here..
.. I think the cold is over, for me a least...


Good to see you again. We missed you....


6 more days of $%^#*
Quoting 85. PedleyCA:


You can blame this on the German people. They had a similar thing in the old country and when they came here all they could find to use was groundhogs...
In Germany, they used hedgehogs, but since hedgehogs went extinct in North America 10 million years ago, when those settlers came to America, they chose the groundhog, the closest living relative there.
Quoting 98. interstatelover7166:
In Germany, they used hedgehogs, but since hedgehogs went extinct in North America 10 million years ago, when those settlers came to America, they chose the groundhog, the closest living relative there.


Thanks, I remember seeing this a few days ago, but couldn't remember which animal they had in Germany.
Quoting 97. ricderr:



Quoting 76. JNTenne:
Narrow roads, ditches instead of shoulders and this lovely guardrails which don't offer much in the way of impact cushioning.. when I first saw these I figured the TN DOT was trying to discourage anyone from even thinking about running off the road in the first place. Forget those nice water filled rubber trash cans that actually protect people from getting skewered, no, no, here in TN if you run off the road and hit one of these battering rams you better have your seat belt on, airbags, insurance and a will..


TN is just adding some chlorine to the gene pool.

OR just general Population control.
Quoting 92. PalmBeachWeather:
80 degrees here in Boynton Beach... Only a few days in the 40's here..
.. I think the cold is over, for me a least...


Yep. Back to summer until next year.
Very summer-ish here in C FL today. We had heavy rain at 11:30am and picked up .26" of rain on the northside of Orlando. That's now 7 out of 8 days of rain here.

Giant Wave Impact in Spain on Monday, 03 February, 2014 at 04:02 (04:02 AM) UTC.
Description
The north coast of Spain was battered by storms which have left a trail of damage Saturday night and Sunday morning. Strong wind and high waves hit the entire north and northwest of the country from Galicia across to the Basque region, causing wide-scale material but fortunately no reported fatalities as waves of over 10 metres in height were reported. In the Basque region, the city of San Sebastian was badly affected as the city's famous old town suffered flooding with water over a metre and a half in depth. Police have recommended drivers to avoid the centre of town as bridges over the Urumea river, which passes through the city, have been closed as a result of the high water. Seven meter waves caused damage along the La Concha beach and residents in neighbourhoods close to the seafront were advised to move their cars out of low level garages because of the risk of flooding. Other towns such as Deba, Pasaia, Zarautz and Irun also saw waves cause flooding, while families needed to be moved in Erandio and the coastal towns of Bermeo, Bakio and Muskiz because of the risk of the rising waters. The town of Santander in Cantabria saw similar scenes with the area around the Sardinero beach hit by waves which flooded garages, shops and the bars in the region. Firemen have been working since early Sunday morning to pump out flooded basements and businesses, while they were employed in clearing the streets in nearby San Vicente de la Barquera. Similar scenes were witnessed in the far northwest region of Galicia, which bore the brunt of the weather, which came in from the Atlantic with local governments deciding to limit access to many beaches as the region was placed under red alert for the weather. The level of alert has since been lowered to orange as the weather front passes by, but with further strong wind and rain forecast for the coming days the north of Spain authorities will remain on guard.
Can someone tell me when the dry season will arrive here as the ground is really soaked now?



Getting hot combined with very high dewpoints.


PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
351 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014

...JANUARY 2014 WAS COOLER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL FOR EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA...


.RAINFALL...

BANDS OF SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGES
DURING JANUARY GENERALLY PRODUCED MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN A
QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH. HOWEVER A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW NORTH OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON THE 9TH HELPED GENERATE A
CLUSTER OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT PRODUCED VERY HIGH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST FROM NEAR VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES. LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO 10 TO
12 INCHES OCCURRED FROM THIS ACTIVITY FLOODING MUCH OF THE AREA
ROADWAYS. IN ADDITION, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
EVENT PRODUCED DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN HOBE SOUND. MORE
WIDESPREAD HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS OCCURRED TOWARD THE END OF
JANUARY. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAD
MOVED THROUGH THE REGION EARLY ON THE 29TH PRODUCED A LARGE AREA OF
PERSISTENT RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR THE LAST THREE DAYS
OF THE MONTH. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS ACTIVITY WERE AROUND 1 TO 2
INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 4
TO 5 INCHES OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY. MELBOURNE
ACTUALLY BROKE IT'S DAILY RAINFALL RECORDS ON ALL THREE OF THESE
DAYS.

THE PRECIPITATION FROM FRONTAL PASSAGES AND THESE TWO HEAVIER
RAINFALL EVENTS PRODUCED RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE MONTH THAT WERE
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ORANGE AND NORTHERN
BREVARD COUNTIES.

DAILY RECORD RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH:

MELBOURNE:
-JANUARY 29: RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.84 INCHES. PREVIOUS RECORD WAS
0.70 INCHES SET IN 1966.
-JANUARY 30: TIED RECORD RAINFALL OF 0.79 INCHES SET IN 2009.
-JANUARY 31: RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.98 INCHES. PREVIOUS RECORD WAS
1.34 INCHES SET IN 1999.

VERO BEACH:
-JANUARY 30: RECORD RAINFALL OF 0.83 INCHES. PREVIOUS RECORD WAS
0.45 INCHES SET IN 2009.

JANUARY 2014 RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ARE AS FOLLOWS (RANKINGS PROVIDED IF IN
THE TOP 10):

-DAYTONA BEACH RECEIVED 2.77 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE MONTH, WHICH WAS
0.03 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

-ORLANDO RECEIVED 2.92 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE MONTH, WHICH WAS 0.57
INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.

-MELBOURNE RECEIVED 5.78 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE MONTH, WHICH WAS
3.51 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS RANKS AS THE 3RD WETTEST JANUARY ON
RECORD FOR THIS SITE. THE WETTEST JANUARY ON RECORD OCCURRED IN 1979
WHEN 8.17 INCHES OF RAIN FELL DURING THE MONTH.


-VERO BEACH RECEIVED 4.49 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE MONTH, WHICH WAS
1.99 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS RANKS AS THE 9TH WETTEST JANUARY ON
RECORD FOR THIS SITE. THE WETTEST JANUARY ON RECORD OCCURRED IN 1957
WHEN 9.08 INCHES OF RAIN FELL DURING THE MONTH.


CO-OPERATIVE OBSERVER STATION RAINFALL RANKINGS:

-FORT PIERCE WATER PLANT HAD THEIR WETTEST JANUARY ON RECORD WITH A
TOTAL OF 13.56 INCHES. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 9.46 INCHES IN 1993.
RAINFALL RECORDS AT THIS SITE GO BACK TO 1901.

-STUART HAD THEIR 2ND WETTEST JANUARY ON RECORD WITH A TOTAL OF
10.66 INCHES. THE RECORD HOLDER FOR JANUARY AT THIS SITE IS 11.44
INCHES SET IN 1993. RAINFALL RECORDS AT STUART GO BACK TO 1935.


Quoting 80. redux:



aren't those designed to shear off on impact?

pretty sure it meets Federal Standards for Guardrails
If they shear off your car gets split in half by the guardrail so I'm pretty sure they just provide a wider area of momentum dispersal, which works great if you are moving slowly :/
109. VR46L
Quoting 92. PalmBeachWeather:
80 degrees here in Boynton Beach... Only a few days in the 40's here..
.. I think the cold is over, for me a least...


Good To See You , I have missed you !
High so far here in Melbourne, FL today is 89.6 °F. Had a trace of rain.
ESPI has come up to -0.25, long time since it's been this high. The next step up in ENSO (few weeks or more from now) should trend atleast a little warmer than the last.
46F and chilly
Quoting 110. Skyepony:
High so far here in Melbourne, FL today is 89.6 °F. Had a trace of rain.
I see that and I miss home....terribly
6 inches of snow in east haven,conn
NYC 6-8 inches today,one thing i remember from up there..NYC unlike atlanta..really knows how to plow the streets and keep traffic moving..my guess is its the same all over the NE huh...
still snowing heavy here in new haven
You Just Have to wonder HUH.........................ST. PETERSBURG --
Three people died in about a 12-hour period in three separate Bay area traffic accidents involving vehicles hitting trees.

According to the Florida Highway Patrol, Brian N. Winholtz, 26, of Indian Rocks Beach died early Monday when his Volvo sedan crashed into a tree just after 3 a.m. near Pelican Landing Boulevard in the Feather Sound area of St. Petersburg.

Troopers said Winholtz died at the scene.

Also, the Hillsborough County Sheriff's Office responded to a crash on Vilmont Green Drive in Sun City Center just after 11 p.m. Sunday.

Deputies said 70-year-old Paul A. Cardeau of Sun City Center died when his 2008 Toyota Prius went off the road for unknown reasons after collided with a tree at about 25 miles per hour. Cardeau was transported to Tampa General Hospital where he later died. A preliminary investigation indicates that the crash may have been caused by a medical condition.

And earlier Sunday, a 56-year-old man died after his car went off a road in Frostproof and hit multiple trees.

According to the Polk County Sheriff's Office, Billy Joe King was killed when his Dodge Neon went off US Highway 27 near Gum Road just before 5:30 p.m. Sunday.

Deputies said King's car went off the road for unknown reasons, continued down the shoulder, sideswiped one tree, spun around, collided with another tree and flipped onto its roof.

Officials said he was declared dead at the scene.

All of the crashes remain under investigation.
120. ARiot
Quoting 76. JNTenne:
Narrow roads, ditches instead of shoulders and this lovely guardrails which don't offer much in the way of impact cushioning.. when I first saw these I figured the TN DOT was trying to discourage anyone from even thinking about running off the road in the first place. Forget those nice water filled rubber trash cans that actually protect people from getting skewered, no, no, here in TN if you run off the road and hit one of these battering rams you better have your seat belt on, airbags, insurance and a will..


I lived in AL close to the TN border for about five years, and we enjoyed going to TN becuase the roads were better.

But I agree that parts of the TN mountain roads are absurd excuses for roads.

I do love the Dragon though, on 2 wheels or four.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WINTER STORM ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR HARFORD AND BALTIMORE
COUNTIES INCLUDING BALTIMORE CITY UNTIL 4 PM.
Quoting 112. Patrap:
46F and chilly
Still holding at 27 out here:( was supposed to get into the mid 30's whazzupwidat? if the cold remains with all that moisture heading this way tomorrow is could get interesting...
It's gonna be wet for much of the week.

78 here by me right now............
Temps up to 86 in Longwood and boy does it feel awfully hot with all of this humidity around.



Quoting 120. ARiot:


I lived in AL close to the TN border for about five years, and we enjoyed going to TN becuase the roads were better.

But I agree that parts of the TN mountain roads are absurd excuses for roads.

I do love the Dragon though, on 2 wheels or four.
We had a version of the Dragon back in SoCal.. the Ortega HWY. I periodically drove it and was amazed that there where not even more accidents than reported.. The weather was good year round of course, but wildfires would shut it down a few times a year.
9" of snow for me. Pretty productive :p only for 2 more storms to come after me. Fun week :p
130. flsky
Quoting 110. Skyepony:
High so far here in Melbourne, FL today is 89.6 °F. Had a trace of rain.

Wow! In Ponce Inlet, we made 79, but very, very humid.
Quoting 120. ARiot:


I lived in AL close to the TN border for about five years, and we enjoyed going to TN becuase the roads were better.

But I agree that parts of the TN mountain roads are absurd excuses for roads.

I do love the Dragon though, on 2 wheels or four.
I have seen roads on the plateau that are so deadly, I was surprised it was legal for people to drive on them.
The latest Euro..
Sabesp, as Brazil’s biggest water utility is known, is offering business and residential clients in the greater Sao Paulo area a 30 percent discount through August if they cut their monthly usage 20 percent below their average between February 2013 and January 2014, the Sao Paulo-based company said in a statement on its website. ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, The water utility said it announced the measures after the region’s lowest rainfall in the past two months since measurements began in 1930. Sabesp’s Cantareira water system, which supplies water to almost 10 million people, is at a “critical level,” according to the statement. The system is at 21.9 percent of capacity, its lowest level ever.

Link
Pakistan Has A Month’s Worth Of Water Left — And 5 Percent Of Its Tree Cover

Pakistan is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to the impacts of climate change due to its location, population and environmental degradation. According to a 2013 report from the Asian Development Bank, Pakistan has one month of water supply on hand. The recommended amount is 1,000 days. 80 percent of Pakistan’s agriculture relies on irrigation from the overstressed water system.

Pakistan’s average temperature is expected to increase around 3 degrees Celsius within the next 50 years — this will make food and water challenges even more taxing. A new study published in the journal Nature Climate Change concludes that people are already migrating out of the Pakistan for just these reasons.


Link
Quoting 136. Tropicsweatherpr:
Countdown towards the start of the 2014 North Atlantic Hurricane Season=117 days.


Are you saying its time to dust off one of these?



139. VR46L
Quoting 137. StormTrackerScott:


Are you saying its time to dust off one of these?





The Chart .....
Quoting 127. StormTrackerScott:
Temps up to 86 in Longwood and boy does it feel awfully hot with all of this humidity around.




It's crazy how hot it is in most of peninsular Florida. Weather patterns like this in FL are weird; another example of this was January of 2007 when I visited Orlando and it was around 80 degrees. Although I think it's a little more nice and refreshing when the winter is just cool enough that you actually feel like you deserve spring a little.

and wow, look at that defining line over the Panhandle!

Cloudy and wet here, with cool temps (relative to Central and South Florida)
Quoting 137. StormTrackerScott:


Are you saying its time to dust off one of these?





Not yet, several months left yet. Notice it doesn't start until May.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER TC EDNA (10U)
4:48 AM EST February 4 2014
============================================

At 4:00 AM EST, Tropical Low, Former Edna (998 hPa) located at 14.1S 156.9E or 1230 km east northeast of Cairns has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving east at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS 15.9S 159.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 18.3S 161.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 23.5S 163.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 25.6S 162.9E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
========================
Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with a 0.2 degree wrap and an added 0.5 for white band, giving a DT of 1.5. MT and PT give 1.5. FT based on MT as DT is not completely clear.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Edna is a midget system embedded in the monsoon trough with near gale force winds observed in the monsoon flow to the north of the system. Deep convection has persisted near the centre of the system overnight, though this convection may be slightly displaced to the east of the centre due to the westerly shear associated with an upper trough moving across the southern and central Coral Sea.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Edna should begin to be steered towards the southeast today under the influence of the upper trough situated over the southern and central Coral Sea. The system should develop slowly today, but it appears that the system will have a better chance of reforming tonight. Most of the computer model guidance intensify the system slightly tonight as the system heads towards New Caledonia.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #17
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER TC FLETCHER (08U)
4:52 AM EST February 4 2014
============================================

At 4:00 AM EST, Tropical Low, Former Fletcher (996 hPa) located at 16.5S 141.4E or overland about
240 km northeast of Burketown and 20 km east northeast of Gilbert River Mouthhas 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as slowly moving.

Dvorak Intensity: N/A

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Fletcher crossed the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast between Karumba and Gilbert River Mouth on Monday evening, and has recently become slow moving, with the center located just inland from the coast.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is likely in the Gulf Country district, mainly in near coastal parts over the next couple of days.

The system is forecast to remain below cyclone intensity over land in the short term, but then recurve towards the west later today, and re-enter southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters; if this occurs, the system may redevelop into a tropical cyclone. As a result GALES may develop between Gilbert River Mouth and the Northern Territory/Queensland border later today or early on Wednesday.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS 16.9S 140.9E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 17.6S 139.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 17.9S 137.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 17.1S 136.5E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
========================

Mornington radar shows a small and tight circulation in the mid levels now on the southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria coast between Karumba and Kowanyama. This circulation is thought to be displaced slightly to the north of the low level circulation center based on numerical weather prediction guidance and earlier positions, however the surface pressures at Kowanyama and Normanton suggest the low level circulation center is closer to this radar circulation than earlier.

Most deep convection is now displaced northward of the system center. Dvorak analysis not applicable as the system is over land with little significant convection near the center.

The motion was easterly under the influence of the monsoonal flow to the north on Monday, however as forecast this has changed during the last 12 hours, with the system becoming slow-moving. Numerical models are consistent in depicting a reversal of direction towards the west today, as a mid-level ridge to the south builds. This may allow the system access to the warm waters to re-intensify it as a cyclone prior to moving over land once again and weakening. By Thursday it may interact with a second low approaching from the Top End of northern Australia. This interaction may be Fujiwara-like or even vortex merger, although the system will be overland.

The only restriction to intensification is the proximity of landmass; the broadscale environment is favorable for development if the system can place itself sufficiently over water - diffluent upper wind pattern, low wind shear and very warm sea surface temperatures of around 30-32C.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Northern Territory/Queensland border order to Gilbert River Mouth.

The Cyclone WATCH between the Northern Territory/Queensland border and Mornington Island has been upgraded to a WARNING
With all the droughts going on, especially if the one in CA persists, it maybe a year to grow what ever produce you can.
Interesting scenario here..COULD it happen???..................Gulf Stream Collapse

The Gulf Stream has slowed by 6 million tonnes of water per second over the past 30 years. Many scientists are worried that this portends a collapse and have applied computer models to work out the alternatives. These show there is a 50% chance the current will collapse totally when global temperatures rise by 3C.

The waters that flow from the Antarctic to the north on the surface of the Atlantic are warm and lose water by evaporating, and therefore get saltier. Salt water is heavier than fresh water and when it reaches the north Atlantic it would sink were it not that the cold water from the arctic is denser still. The arctic water sinks under the warm and provides the force that drives the conveyor and creates the Gulf Stream.

One scenario presented recently to the Pentagon posits that a Gulf Stream collapse could begin in a few years. That massive current of warm water would no longer reach far into the North Atlantic. This would seriously disrupt the temperate climate of Europe and the east coast of North America. The probable outcome would be that the climate of the UK that is now 8C warmer than the same latitudes in other parts of the world would become closer to that in Russia.

The lesser impact would be a 500mm ocean rise as water heats up.

It is not clear what type of weather would follow a collapse. Some forecasters believe the globe would continue to heat, others predict a new ice age or a global drought. The best models suggest there would be a 5F drop over Asia and North America and up to 6F in Europe. On the other hand there would be an increase by up to 4F in Australia, South America, and south Africa.

Winter storms and cyclonic winds would intensify, amplifying the impact of the changes. Average annual rainfall in Europe and China could decrease by nearly 30%. Europe%u2019s climate would then become more like Siberia%u2019s bringing harsh conditions for agriculture.

No chance then for a reduction in heating loads, and so
CO2 emissions would increase further.
I think someone posted a fear of the gulf stream weakening a few months back...
Arctic Heat in Winter — February 2 Temperature Anomaly Hits +13 F For Entire Arctic

After a record warmth event shattered all time high temperatures across Alaska and resulted in melt-spurred avalanches that cut off Valdez from the mainland, heat in the high Arctic continued to intensify through late Sunday. According to reports from The Climate Change Institute, the Arctic temperature anomaly hit +7.07 C (nearly +13 F) above daily averages for the entire Arctic on February 2.

Link
Quoting 147. LargoFl:
Interesting scenario here..COULD it happen???..................Gulf Stream Collapse

The Gulf Stream has slowed by 6 million tonnes of water per second over the past 30 years. Many scientists are worried that this portends a collapse and have applied computer models to work out the alternatives. These show there is a 50% chance the current will collapse totally when global temperatures rise by 3�C.

The waters that flow from the Antarctic to the north on the surface of the Atlantic are warm and lose water by evaporating, and therefore get saltier. Salt water is heavier than fresh water and when it reaches the north Atlantic it would sink were it not that the cold water from the arctic is denser still. The arctic water sinks under the warm and provides the force that drives the conveyor and creates the Gulf Stream.

One scenario presented recently to the Pentagon posits that a Gulf Stream collapse could begin in a few years. That massive current of warm water would no longer reach far into the North Atlantic. This would seriously disrupt the temperate climate of Europe and the east coast of North America. The probable outcome would be that the climate of the UK that is now 8�C warmer than the same latitudes in other parts of the world would become closer to that in Russia.

The lesser impact would be a 500mm ocean rise as water heats up.

It is not clear what type of weather would follow a collapse. Some forecasters believe the globe would continue to heat, others predict a new ice age or a global drought. The best models suggest there would be a 5�F drop over Asia and North America and up to 6�F in Europe. On the other hand there would be an increase by up to 4�F in Australia, South America, and south Africa.

Winter storms and cyclonic winds would intensify, amplifying the impact of the changes. Average annual rainfall in Europe and China could decrease by nearly 30%. Europe%u2019s climate would then become more like Siberia%u2019s bringing harsh conditions for agriculture.

No chance then for a reduction in heating loads, and so
CO2 emissions would increase further.


Greenland's fastest glacier reaches record speeds

"We are now seeing summer speeds more than 4 times what they were in the 1990s on a glacier which at that time was believed to be one of the fastest, if not the fastest, glacier in Greenland," says Ian Joughin, a researcher at the Polar Science Center, University of Washington and lead-author of the study.

In the summer of 2012 the glacier reached a record speed of more than 17 kilometres per year, or over 46 metres per day. These flow rates are unprecedented: they appear to be the fastest ever recorded for any glacier or ice stream in Greenland or Antarctica, the researchers say.


Link
Feel like we need a Sharknado vs groundhog meme here..

Anyways..good news except the movie won't be out til July~

I'm happy to report that America has accomplished its two most important collective goals for 2014: Making a “Sharknado” sequel and keeping Tara Reid off the streets.

Syfy and The Asylum announced Friday that Reid and Ian Ziering — who are quickly becoming this century's Katharine Hepburn and Spencer Tracy — will reprise their roles as Fin and April in the eagerly awaited Sharknado sequel, “Sharknado 2: The Second One,” which is scheduled in begin filming Feb. 13 in New York City, according to USA Today.

There was some confusion last year over whether Reid would return. Which makes no sense at all because, as you know, there could never be a “Sharknado” film without Tara Reid.

Antioch native Anthony Ferrante will again direct a screenplay by Thunder Levin, who also wrote “Sharknado,” the pop culture TV movie that made people want to throw carnivorous fish into extreme weather.

In “Sharknado 2: The Second One,” a freak weather system descends on New York City which, naturally, unleashes a sharknado on its inhabitants, requiring Fin and April to save the city.

Quoting 150. ColoradoBob1:


Greenland's fastest glacier reaches record speeds

"We are now seeing summer speeds more than 4 times what they were in the 1990s on a glacier which at that time was believed to be one of the fastest, if not the fastest, glacier in Greenland," says Ian Joughin, a researcher at the Polar Science Center, University of Washington and lead-author of the study.

In the summer of 2012 the glacier reached a record speed of more than 17 kilometres per year, or over 46 metres per day. These flow rates are unprecedented: they appear to be the fastest ever recorded for any glacier or ice stream in Greenland or Antarctica, the researchers say.


Link
it sure seems like things are changing and changing fast
doc...i want to thank you for this topic today....gave me a chance to post cartoons all day and not get banned
Quoting 149. ColoradoBob1:
Arctic Heat in Winter %u2014 February 2 Temperature Anomaly Hits 13 F For Entire Arctic

After a record warmth event shattered all time high temperatures across Alaska and resulted in melt-spurred avalanches that cut off Valdez from the mainland, heat in the high Arctic continued to intensify through late Sunday. According to reports from The Climate Change Institute, the Arctic temperature anomaly hit 7.07 C (nearly 13 F) above daily averages for the entire Arctic on February 2.

Link
I read a few months ago..some scientists were deathly afraid of the artic ocean being ice free year round..it would add its moisture to the snows in northern canada..in effect creating glaciers over time..
some showers down in south florida.............
156. etxwx
Since someone posted The Chart...

After a big bust, an end to seasonal hurricane forecasting?
By Eric Berger - Houston Chronicle
February 2, 2014 | Updated: February 3, 2014 11:06am


The 2013 forecast busted. Badly.

No one need tell that to Phil Klotzbach, chief author of the most well-known seasonal hurricane forecast, originated by Colorado State University's William Gray three decades ago.

Klotzbach and Gray predicted nine hurricanes would form last year in the Atlantic. Just two did. By almost every measure, what was predicted to be a very active hurricane season was a dud.

"It was a massive error," Klotzbach said.

And now there's a chance the 2013 forecast, perhaps the worst one in the 30 years of seasonal forecasts issued by Gray dating back to 1984, could coincidentally be their last due to a lack of funding.

The irony is that the biggest seasonal forecast busts often provide the biggest insights about the nature of hurricanes and the environments in which they flourish.

"Last year's season will end up being a tremendous learning opportunity, and a lot of research is underway to track down signals that should have been accounted for but were unknown at the time," said Brian McNoldy, a hurricane scientist at the University of Miami.

A pioneer in the field of forecasting hurricanes, Gray, now 84, has students in prominent forecasting positions around the country.

One of them, Chris Landsea, chief science and operations officer at the National Hurricane Center, agreed that losing the forecasts would be unfortunate.

"If indeed Drs. Gray and Klotzbach stop their seasonal hurricane forecasting efforts, this would be a sad end of an era," Landsea said. "While these forecasts are not perfect, these investigations and real-time predictions have taught us quite a bit about the behavior of hurricanes on year-to-year and decade time scales."

Gray has subsidized the Colorado State forecasts for a decade, spending about $500,000 of his own money, Klotzbach said.

Insurance companies have paid for most of the costs, which come to about $150,000 annually for Klotzbach, an assistant, research and travel costs.

However, after their largest insurance backer fell through for 2014, Klotzbach has been scrambling.

"There are lots and lots of irons in the fire, but we don't have what we need yet," he said. The funds need to be raised by late February or March.

Learn from mistakes

In the meantime, Klotzbach said, scientists are working to understand how last year they could have been so wrong. And while hurricane scientists have heard the criticism that comes with bumbling a forecast like this, it has not deterred them.

"There are certainly folks who are anti-seasonal forecasting, claiming that it has no skill and no practical application," McNoldy said. "Well, historically, it does have skill. Seasonal forecasters are quite aware of its limitations and issues, much more so than the people criticizing it. They cannot predict individual storms or landfalls, and don't claim to."

For now the seasonal forecasts are probably of most value to the scientific community. Gray, Klotzbach and a growing number of seasonal forecasters study spring- and summer-time conditions to determine whether they correlate with observed hurricane activity.

Some do, some don't.

For the 2013 season, forecasters predicted that sea surface temperatures would be warm, and that atmospheric conditions would favor lots of tropical storms and hurricanes. The seas were warm, and most atmospheric conditions were favorable.

So what happened? Scientists don't know for sure, but clearly there are other meteorological variables they need to understand to better grasp hurricane formation and intensification.

"Every forecast group performed poorly in 2013, so something new will be learned as a result," McNoldy said.

Value of the research

So why publish the forecasts for public consumption?

According to Bill Read, a former director of the National Hurricane Center and now a hurricane consultant for KPRC, the main value to the general public of seasonal forecasts is human interest.

"People find the subject intriguing and always ask 'How many are we going to have?'" Read said.

The problem Read says he has with seasonal forecasts is that people will sometimes equate their own risk to the number of storms in a forecast. If there are few storms, he said, people would assume they could take a year off in their preparations.

However, like McNoldy, he believes researching the viability of long-range forecasts has value.

"The past season, colossal bust notwithstanding, there has been a reasonable track record," Read said. "I actually think the research work that Klotzbach and Gray and others conduct on seasonal aspects of hurricane activity is important. Through this longer range type of study we gain insight into the elements that impact seasonal activity and why."


Quoting 156. etxwx:
Since someone posted The Chart...

After a big bust, an end to seasonal hurricane forecasting?


Can you post the text of the article? My subscription to the Houston Chronicle is not working for some reason (I can't log in to my account).
Quoting 137. StormTrackerScott:


Are you saying its time to dust off one of these?





I know some are tired of winter and want to look ahead and that is why I posted the countdown. The big question will be how active the 2014 season will be.
159. etxwx
Quoting 157. galvestonhurricane:


Can you post the text of the article? My subscription to the Houston Chronicle is not working for some reason (I can't log in to my account).


See above...I added it to the original post. It's interesting where they talk about funding and that Dr. Gray used some of his own money over the years. Dang!
Quoting 21. hydrus:
Greetings Keep..I have mentioned before that the roads here are extremely dangerous even when the weather is good....Snow is problematic, ice is very dangerous.


Well, we did have some black ice this morning here hydrus, no snow, completely blown forecast by the NWS. MNPS closed schools for today...last night when they announced it, I was like "Huh. They closed schools for a little rain."

*rolls eyes*

I'm split on an actual ice storm. I know those things are really terrible to occur, but just like Kori and hurricanes...I kind of would like to witness one.
Unusually wet across FL this Winter. I bet the Forest Reserve folks are happy as this means low risk for wild fires this Spring.

Quoting 152. LargoFl:
it sure seems like things are changing and changing fast
faster and faster largo
SW US however stays very dry.

Quoting 123. JNTenne:
Still holding at 27 out here:( was supposed to get into the mid 30's whazzupwidat? if the cold remains with all that moisture heading this way tomorrow is could get interesting...


30 here. We were supposed to get to 36 today. I guess the NWS has had a really bad time last 24 hours.
8 inches of snow at my house in new haven,conn
Quoting 158. Tropicsweatherpr:


I know some are tired of winter and want to look ahead and that is why I posted the countdown. The big question will be how active the 2014 season will be.


This year could be interesting if we get an el-nino similar to that of 2004/2005 season. It seems as if we aren't in a hurry to get to El-Nino anytime soon.



Quoting 45. Doppler22:
5.5" of snow now. :D
BRING ON SPRING!!!!! Rain all day here for me and Washi... Also Bring on June 1! Need some tracking.
Quoting 159. etxwx:


See above...I added it to the original post. It's interesting where they talk about funding and that Dr. Gray used some of his own money over the years. Dang!


Thanks!
45 more days until Spring.
Quoting 162. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
faster and faster largo
When will it just warm up? This rain/ snow line is driving me crazy. 6 more weeks until Spring..
Seabreeze storms in S FL makes you get in the mood for hurricane season as you know its getting close now.

Quoting 154. LargoFl:
I read a few months ago..some scientists were deathly afraid of the artic ocean being ice free year round..it would add its moisture to the snows in northern canada..in effect creating glaciers over time..

I don't recall reading that. You have a source?
173. etxwx
Quoting 146. Skyepony:
With all the droughts going on, especially if the one in CA persists, it maybe a year to grow what ever produce you can.


It's a very good idea. It wasn't that long ago when most folks had small seasonal produce gardens in their back yards. Most of the folks in the neighborhood when I was growing up sure did - even if it was just a couple tomato plants and some lettuce - probably because there wasn't so much available in the stores like there is now. And anyway, fresh picked tastes sooo much better!
If folks need information on what grows best locally, google your state county extension service. They often have publications online that give specific information for your climate zone, best varieties, and basic "how to grow" stuff. They may also have information on local farmers markets if you don't want to grow it yourself.
Quoting 166. StormTrackerScott:


This year could be interesting if we get an el-nino similar to that of 2004/2005 season. It seems as if we aren't in a hurry to get to El-Nino anytime soon.



ya its in hurry up and wait mode it appears

175. VR46L
Quoting 159. etxwx:


See above...I added it to the original post. It's interesting where they talk about funding and that Dr. Gray used some of his own money over the years. Dang!


Thanks for posting it !
its snowing here
Quoting 166. StormTrackerScott:


This year could be interesting if we get an el-nino similar to that of 2004/2005 season. It seems as if we aren't in a hurry to get to El-Nino anytime soon.





You gave up on El Nino coming? I remember that you were bullish on El Nino.
Quoting 170. Climate175:
When will it just warm up? This rain/ snow line is driving me crazy. 6 more weeks until Spring..


soon just a little bit longer like a month and a half or so
who knows maybe mid april this year before warm up lots of flooding to
from ice jams
when all the ice starts breaking up

The PWS to the East of me said it collected .04 from the storm that rolled down the Coast last night and early this morning. Every little bit helps.

I'm really looking forward to what could be SW Ohio's biggest snow storm of 2013-2014. 6-8" of snow is forecasted for my area tomorrow evening into Wednesday.
Ummmm - really? From the WU front page "Weather Events"...


Valdosta Regional, GA set a record high temperature of 78 for Feb 03
Valdosta Regional, GA set a record low temperature of 1 for Feb 03
Charleston, SC set a record high temperature of 129 for Feb 03
154. LargoFl -

The researchers believe Jakobshavn Isbræ is in an unstable state, meaning it will continue to retreat further inland in the future. By the end of this century, its calving front could retreat as far back as the head of the fjord through which the glacier flows, about 50 km upstream from where it is today.

The current calving face is over water 1300 meters deep. This has the classic pulling the plug written all over it.
Quoting 178. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


soon just a little bit longer like a month and a half or so
who knows maybe mid april this year before warm up lots of flooding to
from ice jams
when all the ice starts breaking up

Can not wait till the trees start sprouting and starting seeing robins, the butterflies, the bees, flowers, ext. March is usually the transition period between warm and cold so i think late March we will get back to the 50's and 60's.
I just met levi32 today presenting his poster at the AMS conference
Quoting 177. Tropicsweatherpr:


You gave up on El Nino coming? I remember that you were bullish on El Nino.


I still am as the models back it up. I do believe we will have el-nino by mid summer but it maybe weak enough to cause problems for the US and Caribbean as a higher hurricane risk maybe possible more than some think on here. Something I'm watching right now.
Quoting 184. GeorgiaStormz:
I just met levi32 today presenting his poster at the AMS conference

That's really cool! Did you get to chat with him at all?
Quoting 183. Climate175:
Can not wait till the trees start sprouting and starting seeing robins, the butterflies, the bees, flowers, ext. March is usually the transition period between warm and cold so i think late March we will get back to the 50's and 60's.


march can bring some big ones from the gulf

Quoting 187. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


march can bring some big ones from the gulf

There goes the saying March comes in like a Lion, lol i would laugh if we got our big snowstorm in March that dumps 12 inches.
With winter storm number 1 exiting the picture, the focus shifts to winter storm number 2 beginning across the central Plains. It will work its way through the Ohio River Valley and into the Northeast by Wednesday, bringing up to a foot of snow in isolated locations.



An even bigger storm may be brewing for the start of next week.
Quoting 189. TropicalAnalystwx13:
With winter storm number 1 exiting the picture, the focus shifts to winter storm number 2 beginning across the central Plains. It will work its way through the Ohio River Valley and into the Northeast by Wednesday, bringing up to a foot of snow in isolated locations.



An even bigger storm may be brewing for the start of next week.
Nice Avatar.

I remember that one very well I was 13 at the time as we had some big tornadoes rolling thru here that night.


Quoting 185. StormTrackerScott:


I still am as the models back it up. I do believe we will have el-nino by mid summer but it maybe weak enough to cause problems for the US and Caribbean as a higher hurricane risk maybe possible more than some think on here. Something I'm watching right now.


There are many mixed signals right now on ENSO to cause things to stay Neutral for the time being. One of them is a warm pool of subsurface waters in WPAC but SOI is way positive.
Quoting 185. StormTrackerScott:


I still am as the models back it up. I do believe we will have el-nino by mid summer but it maybe weak enough to cause problems for the US and Caribbean as a higher hurricane risk maybe possible more than some think on here. Something I'm watching right now.


I don't think the hurricane season can possibly get any worse after last year. 2014 could very well be dismal, but it'll still be better than 2013.

P.S. Models don't do well with ENSO-neutral conditions like we've been having.
Connecticut

Many schools across Connecticut are closed and some flights at Bradley International Airport have been canceled because of Maximus, expected to bring up to 5 inches of snow to the state. Schools in Bridgeport, New Haven, Stamford and Waterbury are among those closed Monday. The National Weather Service is predicting 3 to 5 inches of snow in southern Connecticut and 1 to 3 inches in the northern part of the state. The Weather Service also says the state could see several more inches of snow Tuesday night. Bradley International Airport in Windsor Locks is reporting six cancelled departing flights and one cancelled arriving flight Monday.
Quoting 191. StormTrackerScott:

I remember that one very well I was 13 at the time as we had some big tornadoes rolling thru here that night.


it was the biggest storm of the season back then and the last one as well it warmed up a week later everything turned to water
Quoting 190. Climate175:
Nice Avatar.


Where is yours???
Quoting 186. Ameister12:

That's really cool! Did you get to chat with him at all?


yes, he was very nice in person


apparently gtsormchasercalebvsaw levi too but I didnt see gt

Head rumors that Jeff masters was here but I'm not sure if they are true
Quoting 197. GeorgiaStormz:


yes, he was very nice in person


apparently gtsormchasercalebvsaw levi too but I didnt see gt

Head rumors that Jeff masters was here but I'm not sure if they are true
he will be in hall c3 on wed mid week as per above at the bottom of his blog

may even be there today roaming around I am sure
Quoting 197. GeorgiaStormz:


yes, he was very nice in person


apparently gtsormchasercalebvsaw levi too but I didnt see gt

Head rumors that Jeff masters was here but I'm not sure if they are true


Read the blog Jordan, Dr. Masters has a section where he talks about where to find him.
Head rumors that Jeff masters was here but I'm not sure if they are true

From the blogpost:

I'm in Atlanta this week for the 94th annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society. I plan on being at Stu Ostro's poster on crazy jet stream shenanigans, being presented at 2:30pm Wednesday in Hall C3, if any of you reading this want to stop by and meet.

Does that clear that up!!!!
Only made it to 30...

Quoting 198. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
he will be in hall c3 on wed mid week as per above at the bottom of his blog

may even be there today roaming around I am sure


thanks, that's where i saw levi today. I'll check for him tomorrow and maybe take a picture
Via Twitter:

Quoting 203. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Via Twitter:




only thing missing is

. changes will occur faster and faster over time
Quoting 199. Astrometeor:


Read the blog Jordan, Dr. Masters has a section where he talks about where to find him.
Quoting 199. Astrometeor:


Read the blog Jordan, Dr. Masters has a section where he talks about where to find him.



I have been very busy with school and sports and ams and didnt notice what I should have. My bad
I'm in the 1-1.5, just across the river, it is 2.5 inches..

Very insignificant non event here in D.C.The kids went to school and I ran out and did multiple errands (whew very tired).Reporting from D.C.
Quoting 203. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Via Twitter:



The Earth is doomed to end in fire then ice.

Will humans be living underground or in space by then?
STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 01 FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS TO NORTHEAST WINTER
STORM
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EST MON FEB 03 2014

...BAND OF SNOW MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST...

WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME
NORTHERN MARYLAND...SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...NEW
YORK...RHODE ISLAND...AND MASSACHUSETTS.

FOR A DETAILED GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE LATEST
WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV

AT 300 PM EST...A SURFACE LOW WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1011
MB...29.85 INCHES OF MERCURY...WAS APPROXIMATELY 85 MILES EAST OF
WALLOPS ISLAND...VIRGINIA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THIS LOW
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A BAND
OF SNOW THAT WAS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHEAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
WAS MOSTLY BEING REPORTED...INCLUDING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN JUST
SOUTH OF THIS BAND IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.


...SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES FROM 700 AM EST SUN FEB
02 THROUGH 300 PM EST MON FEB 03...

...CONNECTICUT...
DARIEN 7.0
MILFORD 6.5
NEW CANAAN 6.0
STAMFORD 6.0
FAIRFIELD 5.9
NORTH HAVEN 5.5
NORWALK 5.5
GUILFORD 5.2
BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT 4.5
NEW HAVEN 4.0
DANBURY 3.1
BEACON FALLS 3.0
GROTON 3.0
NORWICH 3.0
OLD SARBROOK 3.0
LEDYARD CENTER 2.5
MERIDEN 2.5
COLCHESTER 2.3
WATERBURY 1.8
SOUTHBURY 1.5

...DELAWARE...
GREENVILLE 2.5
TALLEYVILLE 2.3
CLAYMONT 2.2
HOCKESSIN 2.2
WHITE CLAY CREEK 1.9
PRICES CORNER 1.3

...MASSACHUSETTS...
MARSTONS MILLS 3.8
CENTERVILLE 3.5
BOURNE 3.0
FAIRHAVEN 2.8
PLYMOUTH 2.5
NEW BEDFORD 2.3
NORTH FAIRHAVEN 2.3
SAGAMORE BEACH 2.3
FOXBORO 1.6
MASHPEE 1.5
SOUTH DENNIS 1.5
QUINCY 1.2
LUDLOW 1.1

...MARYLAND...
FRIENDSVILLE 10.0
ECKHART MINES 1 S 8.0
FROSTBURG 2 NNW 7.5
FLINTSTONE 7.0
LINEBORO 3 WSW 6.9
OAKLAND 6.5
KEYSVILLE 6.0
SABILLASVILLE 6.0
MILLERS 4 NE 5.2
RIDGELEY 1 SSE 4.8
CUMBERLAND 4.0
SMITHSBURG 4.0
CRESAPTOWN-BEL 1 SSE 3.0
OLDTOWN 2.0

...NEW JERSEY...
WHITEHOUSE STATION 8.6
CRANBURY 8.5
EAST BRUNSWICK 8.5
CHESTER 8.0
MORRIS PLAINS 8.0
CEDAR GROVE 7.9
EWING 7.5
HIGHLAND PARK 7.5
MERCERVILLE 7.5
NORTH CALDWELL 7.5
ELIZABETH 7.4
TEWKSBURY TWP 7.4
CALIFON 7.2
CLIFTON 7.0
EAST WINDSOR TWP 7.0
PRINCETON JUNCTION 7.0
WHITEHOUSE 7.0
BERGENFIELD 6.5
TENAFLY 6.3
BORDENTOWN 6.2
FLORENCE 6.2

...NEW YORK...
WOODMERE 7.2
BAYSIDE 7.0
LEVITTOWN 7.0
LINDENHURST 7.0
TARRYTOWN 7.0
KEW GARDENS 6.7
NEW DORP 6.7
BALDWIN 6.5
PLAINVIEW 6.5
STONY BROOK 6.5
ASTORIA 6.2
COMMACK 6.2
EASTCHESTER 6.2
HARTSDALE 6.1
YONKERS 6.1
CENTRAL PARK 6.0

...PENNSYLVANIA...
CRUCIBLE 12.5
FARMINGTON 9.1
EXTON 9.0
LOWER HEIDELBERG TWP 9.0
WEST CALN TWP 8.6
CONFLUENCE 1 SW DAM 8.5
MALVERN 8.3
HUFFS CHURCH 8.2
STEWARTSVILLE 8.1
DEVON 8.0
SINKING SPRING 8.0
MANNS CHOICE 5 W 7.7
HERSHEY 7.5
BREEZEWOOD 7.0
GAP 7.0

...RHODE ISLAND...
WARWICK 3.8
EAST PROVIDENCE 3.5
NORTH KINGSTOWN 3.0
RIVERSIDE 3.0
WESTERLY 3.0
NORTH SCITUATE 2.5
NORTH CUMBERLAND 2.2
LITTLE COMPTON 2.0
PAWTUCKET 2.0
WOONSOCKET 1.4

...WEST VIRGINIA...
SMITHFIELD 12.0
MORGANTOWN 10.0
FAIRMONT 8.0
BLOOMERY 1 SW 7.0
WILEYVILLE 7.0
THOMAS 6.0
FORT ASHBY 5.0
KEARNEYSVILLE 5.0
KLINE GAP 2 NE 5.0
NEW MARTINSVILLE 5.0
MARTINSBURG 10 W 4.0
FALLING WATERS 2 NW 3.6

THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BY MONDAY NIGHT...MOST
OF THE SNOWFALL WILL TAPER OFF. AN ADDITIONAL AMOUNT WILL BE 1 TO
2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

THE NEXT STORM SUMMARY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER AT 1000 PM EST. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT.

FANNING
EuroNews, collecting pics and videos, has done the work for me today :-)

[Watch] Spectacular waves crash on European Atlantic coast after stormy weekend
EuroNews, 03/02 12:15 CET
A new Atlantic storm and high tide have wreaked havoc along Europe’s Atlantic coast from Portugal to Ireland and the United Kingdom.
213. VR46L
Quoting 209. washingtonian115:
Very insignificant non event here in D.C.The kids went to school and I ran out and did multiple errands (whew very tired).Reporting from D.C.


Everything ok Wash ?

You seem to have your angry avi back !

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #18
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER TC FLETCHER (08U)
7:41 AM EST February 4 2014
============================================

At 7:00 AM EST, Tropical Low, Former Fletcher (996 hPa) located at 16.4S 141.4E or overland about 250 km northeast of Burketown and 25 km northeast of Gilbert River Mouth 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as slowly moving.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Fletcher remains slow moving near the Gilbert River Mouth on the western Cape York Peninsula coast.

The system is forecast to adopt a west-southwest track today and re-enter southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters; if this occurs, the system may redevelop into a tropical cyclone. As a result GALES may develop between Gilbert River Mouth and the Northern Territory/Queensland border later today or early on Wednesday.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is likely in the Gulf Country district, mainly in near coastal parts over the next couple of days.

People between the Northern Territory/Queensland border and Gilbert River Mouth should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 11 am.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Northern Territory/Queensland border to Gilbert River Mouth
Quoting 213. VR46L:


Everything ok Wash ?

You seem to have your angry avi back !

she is ok that was from yesterday when some were ranging her up a little or maybe a lot
216. VR46L
Quoting 212. barbamz:
EuroNews, collecting pics and videos, has done the work for me today :-)

[Watch] Spectacular waves crash on European Atlantic coast after stormy weekend
EuroNews, 03/02 12:15 CET
A new Atlantic storm and high tide have wreaked havoc along Europe’s Atlantic coast from Portugal to Ireland and the United Kingdom.


I am so lucky where I am , alot of the southern towns got flooded out RTE News BTW the part of the council in limerick unaware of the risk is inexcusable ...
While I didn't attend the EF scale townhall meeting, or the AMS meeting at all for that matter, there were some interesting tweets on Twitter that I read. One of the most interesting was during Tim Marshall's presentation who said that a recent Japanese study concluded that it takes winds of ~100 m/s (~195kt, ~225 mph, ~360 km/h) to cause pavement scouring:



If that's true, there's been an underestimation of the winds associated with many EF-5s over the past few years.

Makes you wonder how strong the winds have to be to do this:

Quoting 209. washingtonian115:
Very insignificant non event here in D.C.The kids went to school and I ran out and did multiple errands (whew very tired).Reporting from D.C.
Out in NW Montgomery County, PA, they forecast 4-8, we got 8 inches of heavy, wet snow. And they just issued a Winter Storm Watch for another 4-8 inches Tuesday night into Wednesday, and threw in a tenth of an inch of ice for good measure.

Rock salt is rapidly becoming a precious commodity around here.
big system still being shown by new 18z gfs for feb 10

Quoting 191. StormTrackerScott:

I remember that one very well I was 13 at the time as we had some big tornadoes rolling thru here that night.




I was 10, living with my parents near Tampa... and to this day, that was the scariest weather event I've ever been through. The wind screaming and the near-constant sound of branches and other things breaking in the middle of the night was pretty traumatic. The next morning we found out that one of the tornadoes hit about a mile away, so it could have been worse.
Quoting 212. barbamz:
EuroNews, collecting pics and videos, has done the work for me today :-)

[Watch] Spectacular waves crash on European Atlantic coast after stormy weekend
EuroNews, 03/02 12:15 CET
A new Atlantic storm and high tide have wreaked havoc along Europe’s Atlantic coast from Portugal to Ireland and the United Kingdom.

Quite a reasonable amount of spectacular devastation this weekend over the Iberian peninsula's Atlantic coasts to say the least.
Waves up to 40 foot or 13 meters wrecked all sorts of solid concrete things which were meant to stop waves, hence proving that nature and the general background elements will always win in the end.
Doubtless the rest of the European Atlantic coast defences got heavily devastated as well.
Quoting 218. AGWcreationists:
Out in NW Montgomery County, PA, they forecast 4-8, we got 8 inches of heavy, wet snow. And they just issued a Winter Storm Watch for another 4-8 inches Tuesday night into Wednesday, and threw in a tenth of an inch of ice for good measure.

Rock salt is rapidly becoming a precious commodity around here.
we have been under a salt shortage since second week of jan.
Ended up with 9" of wet snow. Just got out and had some fun in it :p

And once again I am under a Winter Storm Watch. A very interesting week.


Nor'Easter?
Quoting 217. TropicalAnalystwx13:
While I didn't attend the EF scale townhall meeting, or the AMS meeting at all for that matter, there were some interesting tweets on Twitter that I read. One of the most interesting was during Tim Marshall's presentation who said that a recent Japanese study concluded that it takes winds of ~100 m/s (~195kt, ~225 mph, ~360 km/h) to cause pavement scouring:



If that's true, there's been an underestimation of the winds associated with many EF-5s over the past few years.

Makes you wonder how strong the winds have to be to do this:



I wasnt there either. Ive been to a townhall on the fufure of nws modeling and now some specific forecasting ideas ans resesrch..such as on lljs, splitting super cells and cloud tops sd a parameter for forecasting possibly even without radar. Thats a small sample
I forgot to mention that I also met rob carver today
Quoting 219. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
big system still being shown by new 18z gfs for feb 10



That would be a dream storm right there. Nice pocket left behind over my head, and that occurring on a Monday....yes please. 7 days is a long time though.
2-4 inches of snow tomorrow!!!
Quoting 226. GeorgiaStormz:
I forgot to mention that I also met rob carver today

You should come over our side of the Atlantic and meet some of us!
Quoting 213. VR46L:


Everything ok Wash ?

You seem to have your angry avi back !

Yes and no.Yes because the kids wen tot school today so i was able to get things done around here.No because I'm coming down with some sickness.My body feels weak and sluggish.Like I just got hit by a whole football team of 300+ pound men.
231. VR46L
Quoting 224. nwobilderburg:


Nor'Easter?


Guess who has just watched the GFS 18z upto 192 hrs

Quoting 218. AGWcreationists:
Out in NW Montgomery County, PA, they forecast 4-8, we got 8 inches of heavy, wet snow. And they just issued a Winter Storm Watch for another 4-8 inches Tuesday night into Wednesday, and threw in a tenth of an inch of ice for good measure.

Rock salt is rapidly becoming a precious commodity around here.
Well for me the storms will be nothing more than rain storms.I don't have any worries.Lot's of people got free car washes today.
233. VR46L
Quoting 230. washingtonian115:
Yes and no.Yes because the kids wen tot school today so i was able to get things done around here.No because I'm coming down with some sickness.My body feels weak and sluggish.Like I just got hit by a whole football team of 300+ pound men.


Gel well soon Flu is rotten !
Quoting 218. AGWcreationists:
Out in NW Montgomery County, PA, they forecast 4-8, we got 8 inches of heavy, wet snow. And they just issued a Winter Storm Watch for another 4-8 inches Tuesday night into Wednesday, and threw in a tenth of an inch of ice for good measure.

Rock salt is rapidly becoming a precious commodity around here.


Hurmp, I thought winters in North Dakota were harsh. It got all the way up to 18 today, and low of only -13 tomorrow, and no snow.

Oh well.

Cheers
Qazulight
Kind of boring... ): (:
Quoting 235. CaribBoy:
Kind of boring... ): (:


CaribBoy be careful. I already associate St. Barts with "boredom", lol. PR guys of your island will go after you soon, sure! :-)
Based on the NWS forecast no snow for Washington D.C.

Yesterday they were forecasting 1-2" in the city and now there's no mention of snow
Quoting 218. AGWcreationists:
Out in NW Montgomery County, PA, they forecast 4-8, we got 8 inches of heavy, wet snow. And they just issued a Winter Storm Watch for another 4-8 inches Tuesday night into Wednesday, and threw in a tenth of an inch of ice for good measure.

Rock salt is rapidly becoming a precious commodity around here.


Out in Lower Bucks County, PA: Still Waiting for the Winter Storm Watch
Anybody want to talk about something tropical?!?!
VR46L Thanks!.

Quoting 237.
Sfloridacat5:

Based on the NWS forecast no snow for Washington D.C.

Yesterday they were forecasting 1-2" in the city and now there's no mention of snow
Of course not!.I knew that over zealous snow map of the Euro were over exaggerating on totals here in D.C.The warm wedge won out again.Something the models always have a hard time picking up on.It was just to warm yesterday and that arctic front just wasn't as strong as the ones back in January (oh how I miss thee).
Get Well soon Washi....
Quoting 211. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 01 FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS TO NORTHEAST WINTER
STORM
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EST MON FEB 03 2014

...BAND OF SNOW MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST...

WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME
NORTHERN MARYLAND...SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...NEW
YORK...RHODE ISLAND...AND MASSACHUSETTS.

FOR A DETAILED GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE LATEST
WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV

AT 300 PM EST...A SURFACE LOW WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1011
MB...29.85 INCHES OF MERCURY...WAS APPROXIMATELY 85 MILES EAST OF
WALLOPS ISLAND...VIRGINIA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THIS LOW
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A BAND
OF SNOW THAT WAS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHEAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
WAS MOSTLY BEING REPORTED...INCLUDING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN JUST
SOUTH OF THIS BAND IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.


...SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES FROM 700 AM EST SUN FEB
02 THROUGH 300 PM EST MON FEB 03...

...CONNECTICUT...
DARIEN 7.0
MILFORD 6.5
NEW CANAAN 6.0
STAMFORD 6.0
FAIRFIELD 5.9
NORTH HAVEN 5.5
NORWALK 5.5
GUILFORD 5.2
BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT 4.5
NEW HAVEN 4.0
DANBURY 3.1
BEACON FALLS 3.0
GROTON 3.0
NORWICH 3.0
OLD SARBROOK 3.0
LEDYARD CENTER 2.5
MERIDEN 2.5
COLCHESTER 2.3
WATERBURY 1.8
SOUTHBURY 1.5

...DELAWARE...
GREENVILLE 2.5
TALLEYVILLE 2.3
CLAYMONT 2.2
HOCKESSIN 2.2
WHITE CLAY CREEK 1.9
PRICES CORNER 1.3

...MASSACHUSETTS...
MARSTONS MILLS 3.8
CENTERVILLE 3.5
BOURNE 3.0
FAIRHAVEN 2.8
PLYMOUTH 2.5
NEW BEDFORD 2.3
NORTH FAIRHAVEN 2.3
SAGAMORE BEACH 2.3
FOXBORO 1.6
MASHPEE 1.5
SOUTH DENNIS 1.5
QUINCY 1.2
LUDLOW 1.1

...MARYLAND...
FRIENDSVILLE 10.0
ECKHART MINES 1 S 8.0
FROSTBURG 2 NNW 7.5
FLINTSTONE 7.0
LINEBORO 3 WSW 6.9
OAKLAND 6.5
KEYSVILLE 6.0
SABILLASVILLE 6.0
MILLERS 4 NE 5.2
RIDGELEY 1 SSE 4.8
CUMBERLAND 4.0
SMITHSBURG 4.0
CRESAPTOWN-BEL 1 SSE 3.0
OLDTOWN 2.0

...NEW JERSEY...
WHITEHOUSE STATION 8.6
CRANBURY 8.5
EAST BRUNSWICK 8.5
CHESTER 8.0
MORRIS PLAINS 8.0
CEDAR GROVE 7.9
EWING 7.5
HIGHLAND PARK 7.5
MERCERVILLE 7.5
NORTH CALDWELL 7.5
ELIZABETH 7.4
TEWKSBURY TWP 7.4
CALIFON 7.2
CLIFTON 7.0
EAST WINDSOR TWP 7.0
PRINCETON JUNCTION 7.0
WHITEHOUSE 7.0
BERGENFIELD 6.5
TENAFLY 6.3
BORDENTOWN 6.2
FLORENCE 6.2

...NEW YORK...
WOODMERE 7.2
BAYSIDE 7.0
LEVITTOWN 7.0
LINDENHURST 7.0
TARRYTOWN 7.0
KEW GARDENS 6.7
NEW DORP 6.7
BALDWIN 6.5
PLAINVIEW 6.5
STONY BROOK 6.5
ASTORIA 6.2
COMMACK 6.2
EASTCHESTER 6.2
HARTSDALE 6.1
YONKERS 6.1
CENTRAL PARK 6.0

...PENNSYLVANIA...
CRUCIBLE 12.5
FARMINGTON 9.1
EXTON 9.0
LOWER HEIDELBERG TWP 9.0
WEST CALN TWP 8.6
CONFLUENCE 1 SW DAM 8.5
MALVERN 8.3
HUFFS CHURCH 8.2
STEWARTSVILLE 8.1
DEVON 8.0
SINKING SPRING 8.0
MANNS CHOICE 5 W 7.7
HERSHEY 7.5
BREEZEWOOD 7.0
GAP 7.0

...RHODE ISLAND...
WARWICK 3.8
EAST PROVIDENCE 3.5
NORTH KINGSTOWN 3.0
RIVERSIDE 3.0
WESTERLY 3.0
NORTH SCITUATE 2.5
NORTH CUMBERLAND 2.2
LITTLE COMPTON 2.0
PAWTUCKET 2.0
WOONSOCKET 1.4

...WEST VIRGINIA...
SMITHFIELD 12.0
MORGANTOWN 10.0
FAIRMONT 8.0
BLOOMERY 1 SW 7.0
WILEYVILLE 7.0
THOMAS 6.0
FORT ASHBY 5.0
KEARNEYSVILLE 5.0
KLINE GAP 2 NE 5.0
NEW MARTINSVILLE 5.0
MARTINSBURG 10 W 4.0
FALLING WATERS 2 NW 3.6

THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BY MONDAY NIGHT...MOST
OF THE SNOWFALL WILL TAPER OFF. AN ADDITIONAL AMOUNT WILL BE 1 TO
2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

THE NEXT STORM SUMMARY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER AT 1000 PM EST. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS EVENT.

FANNING


I think that in the PA section, it's Stewartstown, not Stewartsville
Quoting 239. Haiyan2013:
Anybody want to talk about something tropical?!?!

No, it's February.
Quoting 232. washingtonian115:
Well for me the storms will be nothing more than rain storms.I don't have any worries.Lot's of people got free car washes today.


Sunday Night/Monday could be the kind of rain you shovel or scrape. Light icing potential exists tomorrow night also down to about the northern and western DC 'burbs.. not so light further north and west.

Update. 18Z GFS (still 7 days out!!) looks like a rain event with maybe some backlash snow. For the DC area backlash snow is one of those things that is promised but almost never delivers.



Quoting 239. Haiyan2013:
Anybody want to talk about something tropical?!?!
I wish it was May.Now that the pattern is looking like it has nothing more to offer D.C in the way of snow I will be looking forward to the trees blooming soon.
Quoting 230. washingtonian115:
Yes and no.Yes because the kids wen tot school today so i was able to get things done around here.No because I'm coming down with some sickness.My body feels weak and sluggish.Like I just got hit by a whole football team of 300+ pound men.
sounds like a flu hope not get flu now have it till start of spring
Quoting 239. Haiyan2013:
Anybody want to talk about something tropical?!?!


Not really, no. There's nothing in the tropics worth chatting about right now. Focus is on the Northern Hemisphere winter.
Quoting 243. TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, it's February.
maybe mid march start looking at sst's how things are responding and other things enjoy the off season
Quoting 247. Astrometeor:


Not really, no. There's nothing in the tropics worth chatting about right now. Focus is on the Northern Hemisphere winter.
There is five invests globally right now.. I just updated all that in my blog.
Quoting 230. washingtonian115:
Yes and no.Yes because the kids wen tot school today so i was able to get things done around here.No because I'm coming down with some sickness.My body feels weak and sluggish.Like I just got hit by a whole football team of 300+ pound men.


I think Denver feels the same way.
Quoting 239. Haiyan2013:
Anybody want to talk about something tropical?!?!


I can post for you the countdown. There is always the Southern Hemisphere to look at.

Link
252. yoboi
Quoting 172. Birthmark:

I don't recall reading that. You have a source?



Hope this helps you recall...let me know if you need additional information....


Link
Quoting 240. washingtonian115:
VR46L Thanks!.

Of course not!.I knew that over zealous snow map of the Euro were over exaggerating on totals here in D.C.The warm wedge won out again.Something the models always have a hard time picking up on.It was just to warm yesterday and that arctic front just wasn't as strong as the ones back in January (oh how I miss thee).


Where's the polar vortex when you need it?
Quoting 245. washingtonian115:
I wish it was May.Now that the pattern is looking like it has nothing more to offer D.C in the way of snow I will be looking forward to the trees blooming soon.
Do you think the southern hemisphere storms are interesting?
Quoting 249. Skyepony:
There is five invests globally right now.. I just updated all that in my blog.


I know Skye, I check up on every once in a while. Still nothing truly interesting.
Quoting 248. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
maybe mid march start looking at sst's how things are responding and other things enjoy the off season


The Bahamas often gets interesting (usually only in forecasts) in Mid May when I fish there offshore in a 40 foot boat.
Quoting 252. yoboi:
Hope this helps you recall...let me know if you need additional information....

Um, that actually says the opposite. (It's also nonsense.)
Quoting 245. washingtonian115:
I wish it was May.Now that the pattern is looking like it has nothing more to offer D.C in the way of snow I will be looking forward to the trees blooming soon.


Got a lot of seed starting to do between now and mid March for cool season stuff. Been busy and am behind. Late January is time for broccoli, onions, and snapdragons, also long growing seedlings like petunias. But I don't even have the orders in yet.. when you have three teens with activities.. stuff happens.

I never realized WINTER would get shorter as I got older. AGW is responsible for perhaps five days of this, the rest is perception. But yeah in DC it's increasingly the summers that drain the life out of me.
Aaahh, new date (Feb 4), new luck. Maybe our Alaskian Levi is staying in Atlanta right now (he does, as far as I understood?) to experience something like winter this year, lol.



Winter Heat Swamps Alaska
NASA Earth Observatory, February 4, 2014

While much of the continental United States endured several cold snaps in January 2014, record-breaking warmth gripped Alaska. Spring-like conditions set rivers rising and avalanches tumbling.

This map depicts land surface temperature anomalies in Alaska for January 23–30, 2014. Based on data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite, the map shows how 2014 temperatures compared to the 2001–2010 average for the same week. Areas with warmer than average temperatures are shown in red; near-normal temperatures are white; and areas that were cooler than the base period are blue. Gray indicates oceans or areas where clouds blocked the satellite from collecting usable data. ...


Whole article see link above. Good night with this!
Quoting 195. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
it was the biggest storm of the season back then and the last one as well it warmed up a week later everything turned to water


It took a week for the stuff to melt in the DC area taking us to late March before we saw decent Spring weather that year.
Hello All..just doing a drive by..stay warm, dry, or cool, where ever location you are in..

East Coast is looking at a lot of rain..

CMC




GFS


nothing but rain forecasted for my neck of the woods..



... Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 7 PM EST this
evening...
... Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from late Tuesday night
through Wednesday afternoon...

* locations... New York City... Nassau County and portions of
northeastern New Jersey.

* Hazard types... snow... sleet... freezing rain.

* Accumulations... an additional 1-2 inches of snow is expected
this evening... with storm total snowfall ranging from 6 to 8
inches. For Tuesday night through Wednesday... snow accumulation
of 4 to 8 inches... along with up to around one quarter of an
inch of ice.

* Visibilities... one quarter to one half mile at times.

* Timing... snow tapers off this evening. Snow late Tuesday
night... eventually mixing and changing to sleet and freezing
rain Wednesday morning and continuing through much of the day.
Away from the coast... snow remains longer before changing to
sleet and freezing rain.
263. txjac
I dont have time to plod through a hundred google search returns so if someone has the answer I would totally appreciate it.

Where would I go if I wanted to see the jet stream and the earth magnetic field wobbles? I'm curious to see if they mimic each other. Is there some place that I can see both at the same time

Thanks in advance
8 inches of snow today...4-8 tomorrow night with ice accumulations of up to 0.25 inches and a 980mb low on the way for Sunday. Long Island/northeast wins this winter.
Quoting 264. wilsongti45:
8 inches of snow today...4-8 tomorrow night with ice accumulations of up to 0.25 inches and a 980mb low on the way for Sunday. Long Island/northeast wins this winter.


Northeast wins most winters.
Snow in New England is like warm air in Florida. It's par for the course.
Does it look like that the low that is set to drench the Eastern US will produce severe weather anywhere in the Continental US? Time frame?
Nevermind...looks like a possible risk of severe weather for parts of Alabama and Mississippi, anyone there wants to share a forecast?
Last thing for tonight ... Go, Europe!!



British Surfer Andrew Cotton 'Rides World's Biggest Wave' in Portugal [VIDEO]
IBT, by Ewan Palmer | February 3, 2014 14:09 PM GMT
A British surfer may have broken a record for riding the world's biggest wave which he set himself just three months ago.
Andrew Cotton, from Devon, was filmed surfing on a wave on coast of Nazaré in Portugal which has the potential to be bigger than the estimated 80ft record breaking wave he rode in the same spot three months ago. ...

Quoting 267. hurricaneben:
Nevermind...looks like a possible risk of severe weather for parts of Alabama and Mississippi, anyone there wants to share a forecast?

Looks like a marginal damaging wind event tomorrow. Nothing too significant.
For West Palm Beach...Welcome to spring...

Quoting 245. washingtonian115:
I wish it was May.Now that the pattern is looking like it has nothing more to offer D.C in the way of snow I will be looking forward to the trees blooming soon.



We were in Chester yesterday, and my daughter noticed the trees were budding! In beginning of Feb! Problem is...if we get a late (and especially long freeze) freeze and late spring like last year, it does quite a bit of damage to those way, to early, budding plants. If it's going to be mild, really needs to be a mild winter all the way through! Something similar happened last year round this time, but not as extreme...as had at least had some winter showing on and off by now, but was mild in Febs, allowing Daffodils to start...but then went freezing for months. Will be interesting to see what happens anyway. Currently, still just rain rain rain. Southern England has obviously the worst of it, but N Wales and elsewhere in the region, only better cause are more used to totally loads of rain. But everything still floody and heavily saturated...but more built to deal with it I think.

Hope you're all well and hope is NOT the end of Wash's snow!
Winter ice season is now 24 days shorter than it was in 1950, study finds

Researchers utilized the Canadian Lake Ice Model to assess ice cover and lake ice thickness for those years before satellite images were available.

According to a University of Waterloo news release, Arctic lakes have been freezing up later in the year and thawing earlier, cutting the winter ice season by 24 days. The study also finds that climate change has dramatically impacted the thickness of lake ice at the coldest point in the season. In 2011, for example, Arctic lake ice was as much as 38 cm thinner than it was in 1950.

“We’ve found that the thickness of the ice has decreased tremendously in response to climate warming in the region,” noted lead author Cristina Surdu, a PhD student of Professor Claude Duguay in the University of Waterloo’s Department of Geography and Environmental Management. “When we saw the actual numbers we were shocked at how dramatic the change has been. It’s basically more than a foot of ice by the end of winter.”

This is the first time that researchers have been able to record the significance of lake-ice alterations in the region over such an extended period of time.

“Prior to starting our analysis, we were expecting to find a decline in ice thickness and grounded ice based on our examination of temperature and precipitation records of the past five decades from the Barrow meteorological station,” posited Surdu “At the end of the analysis, when looking at trend analysis results, we were stunned to observe such a dramatic ice decline during a period of only 20 years.”

The researchers utilized satellite radar imagery from the European Space Agency to figure out that 62 percent of the lakes in the region froze down to the bed in 1992. Nearly 20 years later, only 26 percent of lakes froze to the bottom.

Researchers were able to differentiate between a fully frozen lake and one that had not frozen all of the way down to its bed, because satellite radar signals act in a different manner, based on presence or lack of water beneath the ice.

For example, radar signals are absorbed into the sediment under the lake when it is frozen down to its bed. However, when water exists underneath the ice, the radar signal bounces back towards the radar system. As a result, lakes that are not frozen to the bottom are bright on satellite images.

Researchers utilized the Canadian Lake Ice Model to assess ice cover and lake ice thickness for those years before satellite images were available.

The model simulations reveal that lakes in the region froze nearly six days later and broke up approximately 18 days earlier in the winter of 2011 compared to the winter of 1950. The loss of 24 days to the winter season could significantly impact lake algal productivity as well as thawing of permafrost under lake beds.

“The changes in ice and the shortened winter affect Northern communities that depend on ice roads to transport goods,” explained Surdu. “The dramatic changes in lake ice may also contribute to further warming of the entire region because open water on lakes contribute to warmer air temperatures, albeit to a lesser extent than open sea water.”



Quoting 247. Astrometeor:
Not really, no. There's nothing in the tropics worth chatting about right now. Focus is on the Northern Hemisphere winter.


Except two named cyclone Fletcher and Edna that the JTWC are not issuing advisories for at the moment. =P
276. VR46L
Quoting 275. HadesGodWyvern:


Except two named cyclone Fletcher and Edna that the JTWC are not issuing advisories for at the moment. =P


Are they not just Tropical Lows Now ?



Quoting 275. HadesGodWyvern:


Except two named cyclone Fletcher and Edna that the JTWC are not issuing advisories for at the moment. =P


Why is that?

Edit: Great, Haiyan2013 has now inadvertently started a tropical discussion. >.<
Mega Weekend Snowstorm? Here's What We Know! on the end of the weekend
I forgot to mention that I also met rob carver today and greg forbes.
Also bernie rayno and I just took a picture and he tweeted it out
Quoting 276. VR46L:


Are they not just Tropical Lows Now ?





they are both forecast to become tropical cyclones again.
282. VR46L
Quoting 277. Astrometeor:


Why is that?

Edit: Great, Haiyan2013 has now inadvertently started a tropical discussion. >.<


Knock yourself out .... you might like this info Aus Met site
Quoting 263. txjac:
I dont have time to plod through a hundred google search returns so if someone has the answer I would totally appreciate it.

Where would I go if I wanted to see the jet stream and the earth magnetic field wobbles? I'm curious to see if they mimic each other. Is there some place that I can see both at the same time

Thanks in advance


I don't know where both are plotted together. By magnetic field wobbles you mean Chandler's wobble? Here's for the last year or so..



Had some significant deviations last month. The site says from El Nino but that appears wrote too hastily.. Lot of earthquakes~ that, tsunamis, maybe large surge & such can do that. Could see if the dates corresponds to crazy deep jet stream. Not totally sure but it may be the other way around where sudden shifts in earth orientation can sling the jet stream around..which I guess could cause some weird drag & surge affecting the orientation..hhmmm.
next snow storm is coming on Wednesday 6 to 10 inches for new haven to new York city storm 2 and storm 3 will be the big northeaster this weekend
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I forgot to mention that I also met rob carver today and greg forbes.
Also bernie rayno and I just took a picture and he tweeted it out


LOL - going to call you the shadow now.
Quoting 282. VR46L:


Knock yourself out .... you might like this info Aus Met site


Thanks for the newly bookmarked site! Lol, when I get a new computer and I transfer everything over, I am definitely going to make my stuff neater.
Winter Storm Watch for Southern New Haven, CT

From 12:00 AM EST, Wed., Feb 05, 2014 until 6:00 PM EST, Wed., Feb 05, 2014
ACCUMULATIONS... UP TO 1 ADDITIONAL INCH THIS EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... ALONG WITH AROUND A TRACE OF ICE.
Watching the sea ice on the edge of my seat. The forecast had thinner ice was to be drawn to the N Pole from east of Greenland but thicker was instead. The storm N of Greenland has been getting going & wrecking some ice. It also unexpectedly pulled in alot of warmer water & thinner ice from around Alaska. The ice lose to the west of Greenland was unexpected as well.

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
=================================

At 23:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Edna is currently located to the south of Solomon Island. It is forecast to enter RSMC Nadi area of responsibility at around 9:00 AM UTC.

Global models have picked up the system, move it southeastward and slightly deepens it in the next 24 hours.

Potential for this system to re-develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is MODERATE to HIGH.

290. VR46L
Quoting 286. Astrometeor:


Thanks for the newly bookmarked site! Lol, when I get a new computer and I transfer everything over, I am definitely going to make my stuff neater.


My bookmarks are so out of control its unreal currently moving them manually to pearltrees ... Can export them in one go but I am trying to weed and prune but instead they keep multiplying .
largest`wave towed in. but i give more respect for those surfers that are paddling into some monstersurf in maui
Quoting 288. Skyepony:
Watching the sea ice on the edge of my seat. The forecast had thinner ice was to be drawn to the N Pole from east of Greenland but thicker was instead. The storm N of Greenland has been getting going & wrecking some ice. It also unexpectedly pulled in alot of warmer water & thinner ice from around Alaska. The ice lose to the west of Greenland was unexpected as well.
Yes, 2014 may shape up to be yet another in a long line of by interesting and bizarre Arctic melt seasons...
Quoting 277. Astrometeor:


Why is that?

Edit: Great, Haiyan2013 has now inadvertently started a tropical discussion. >.<
What, do you not like tropical discussions in February?
I always liked Chuck, he was a Helo Man in the Service, "Royal Navy".

Climate change deniers are 'headless chickens' says Prince Charles

CLIMATE change deniers are nothing more than a "headless chicken brigade", Prince Charles claimed today.


The Prince of Wales, who has campaigned for years to reduce global warming, also spoke out against "the barrage of sheer intimidation" from powerful anti-climate change groups during an awards ceremony at Buckingham Palace last night.

The Prince made the comments as he presented leading young green entrepreneur Gamal Albinsaid with the inaugural Prince of Wales Young Sustainability Entrepreneur Prize.

His comments were met with scorn by climate change sceptic Dr Benny Peiser, of Lord Lawson’s Global Warming Policy Foundation, who argued "alarmist" predictions from people such as the Prince were more in keeping with headless chickens.

Prince Charles said: "It is baffling, I must say, that in our modern world we have such blind trust in science and technology that we all accept what science tells us about everything - until, that is, it comes to climate science.

"All of a sudden, and with a barrage of sheer intimidation, we are told by powerful groups of deniers that the scientists are wrong and we must abandon all our faith in so much overwhelming scientific evidence.

"So, thank goodness for our young entrepreneurs here this evening, who have the far-sightedness and confidence in what they know is happening to ignore the headless chicken brigade and do something practical to help."

He added: "Perhaps it has been too uncomfortable for those with vested interests to acknowledge, but we have spent the best part of the past century enthusiastically testing the world to utter destruction; not looking closely enough at the long-term impact our actions will have."

Dr Peiser accused the Prince of confusing people who against the policies being put forward to counter climate-change with those who do not believe it is happening.

He said: "I am not surprised. He has been speaking about this for many years.

"A headless chicken is normally someone who is running around panicking, who doesn't really understand what's happening.

"I think he really confuses people like us who are critical of the policies being advanced.

"We are sceptical about the alarmist prediction of what is going to happen."

Mr Albinsaid is the founder of the Indonesian social enterprise Garbage Clinical Insurance, an innovative project which helps the poorest communities gain access to health services and education through the collection and recycling of rubbish.
Quoting 239. Haiyan2013:
Anybody want to talk about something tropical?!?!


Why are people so fixated on the tropics? There's quite literally a myriad of weather to discuss not pertinent to tropical weather.
296. txjac
Quoting 283. Skyepony:


I don't know where both are plotted together. By magnetic field wobbles you mean Chandler's wobble? Here's for the last year or so..



Had some significant deviations last month. The site says from El Nino but that appears wrote too hastily.. Lot of earthquakes~ that, tsunamis, maybe large surge & such can do that. Could see if the dates corresponds to crazy deep jet stream. Not totally sure but it may be the other way around where sudden shifts in earth orientation can sling the jet stream around..which I guess could cause some weird drag & surge affecting the orientation..hhmmm.



Thanks much Skye. I want to see how or even if they affect each other.
Quoting 204. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



only thing missing is

. changes will occur faster and faster over time


Feedback loop?
Quoting 288. Skyepony:
Watching the sea ice on the edge of my seat. The forecast had thinner ice was to be drawn to the N Pole from east of Greenland but thicker was instead. The storm N of Greenland has been getting going & wrecking some ice. It also unexpectedly pulled in alot of warmer water & thinner ice from around Alaska. The ice lose to the west of Greenland was unexpected as well.



Having a hard time with this. So was it good or bad? I see thicker instead of thinner ice, but yet some was broken up?
Quoting 295. KoritheMan:


Why are people so fixated on the tropics? There's quite literally a myriad of weather to discuss not pertinent to tropical weather.

Yet you just posted in my group about how you want Arthur to be a hurricane instead of a tropical storm this season. :\
Quoting 292. Neapolitan:
Yes, 2014 may shape up to be yet another in a long line of by interesting and bizarre Arctic melt seasons...


With the PDO causing surface cooling through the equatorial Pacific, GW has slowed, but by no means gone away; as the warmest November globally on record and the third warmest December globally showed. The PDO is questionably the cause of the AGW slowdown and since this PDO phase should last another five to fifteen years, an ice free arctic is likely to not happen until 2025-2030 at the earliest. Clearly we're headed for this inevitability though and with it a jet stream that continues to kink and act even more unpredictably. The real question is what will the jet stream look like when the arctic ocean is ice free and just how soon the methane gets released from Greenland and other locals, which too is an inevitability. Earth has a fragile climate balance, and when things get out of whack, things tend to happen very quickly; like ice ages happening in years not centuries. Not imagining that, but we shouldn't be surprised to see wide ranging unexpected extremes in the next 25-75 years that are unimaginable now.
Quoting 299. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yet you just posted in my group about how you want Arthur to be a hurricane instead of a tropical storm this season. :\
Some people.
Quoting 299. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yet you just posted in my group about how you want Arthur to be a hurricane instead of a tropical storm this season. :\


What of it? :)
Quoting 302. KoritheMan:


What of it? :)


I want Big Bertha to be our first hurricane.
Quoting 303. VAbeachhurricanes:


I want Big Bertha to be our first hurricane.


She already was in 2008. Do you want to see it again for some reason?
Quoting 304. KoritheMan:


She already was in 2008. Do you want to see it again for some reason?



First hurricane I have ever been in, it'll be a sad day when it is retired.
Evening all, from the quite warm and very sunny by day Bahamas....

Oh... I'm going to miss the meet-n-greet on Wednesday.... I hope some of the other bloggers do get to meet each other, and the doc, this week, though.

And I bet most of the conference attendees are darned glad LAST week was the crazy ice/snow/other freezing precipitation week.... lol
Quoting 209. washingtonian115:
Very insignificant non event here in D.C.The kids went to school and I ran out and did multiple errands (whew very tired).Reporting from D.C.
You are already back from NY?
Quoting 306. BahaHurican:
Evening all, from the quite warm and very sunny by day Bahamas....

Oh... I'm going to miss the meet-n-greet on Wednesday.... I hope some of the other bloggers do get to meet each other, and the doc, this week, though.

And I bet most of the conference attendees are darned glad LAST week was the crazy ice/snow/other freezing precipitation week.... lol


What meet and greet? Did I miss something?

(Not like I can go anyway. But you know, curiosity)
Quoting 308. KoritheMan:


What meet and greet? Did I miss something?

(Not like I can go anyway. But you know, curiosity)


AMS conference.
Quoting 226. GeorgiaStormz:
I forgot to mention that I also met rob carver today
Sounds like you had a pretty good day so far....
Quoting 243. TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, it's February.
Hey, lots of tropical fun potential in the Southern hemisphere in February....

:o)
Quoting 300. DeepSeaRising:


With the PDO causing surface cooling through the equatorial Pacific, GW has slowed, but by no means gone away; as the warmest November globally on record and the third warmest December globally showed. The PDO is questionably the cause of the AGW slowdown and since this PDO phase should last another five to fifteen years, an ice free arctic is likely to not happen until 2025-2030 at the earliest. Clearly we're headed for this inevitability though and with it a jet stream that continues to kink and act even more unpredictably. The real question is what will the jet stream look like when the arctic ocean is ice free and just how soon the methane gets released from Greenland and other locals, which too is an inevitability. Earth has a fragile climate balance, and when things get out of whack, things tend to happen very quickly; like ice ages happening in years not centuries. Not imagining that, but we shouldn't be surprised to see wide ranging unexpected extremes in the next 25-75 years that are unimaginable now.
Mostly correct; global warming has not slowed. Surface warming, however, has, as the oceans have been warming at a greatly increased rate. So far as the Arctic, I don't believe an ice free year is so far away; I still believe 2016 - 2020 is completely within the realm of possibility.
World still suppose to melt this year?I know 5 or 6 years ago many on this site said the end was near.Nothing yet good news and nice and cool in chicago this winter and southern sea ice at record levels.Longer hurricae seasons and major hurricanes have just not happened according to experts on here,no major hurricanes to hit United States in 9 years.Lower tornado and fire seasons the last couple yrs have been welcome news.Florida was going to become a desert according too some and we see that did not work out.Hard to predict weather when the one who created the heavens and earth is still in control.Everyone have a great rest of the day and enjoy yourselves,god bless.
Quoting 282. VR46L:


Knock yourself out .... you might like this info Aus Met site
This and the Mauritius site are two I like to use a lot from Jan - April. Fiji's gotten better the last couple of years.
Quoting 306. BahaHurican:
Evening all, from the quite warm and very sunny by day Bahamas....

Oh... I'm going to miss the meet-n-greet on Wednesday.... I hope some of the other bloggers do get to meet each other, and the doc, this week, though.

And I bet most of the conference attendees are darned glad LAST week was the crazy ice/snow/other freezing precipitation week.... lol
AMS conference was a lot of fun when I was there for two days. Just wish I could have stayed longer and meet other bloggers.
Quoting 298. Dakster:


Having a hard time with this. So was it good or bad? I see thicker instead of thinner ice, but yet some was broken up?


Overall Arctic Basin (in the middle) took a little overall loss in ice the last few days. Bering sea lost big.. ~150,000sq km.

West of Greenland was more than I gestimated.. ~100,000sq km.

Oh even east of Greenland lost more extent than I eyeballed.

Looking at the hard numbers is even more depressing. I'll say bad.

All unstable like this it is just harder to predict weather patterns than most places, even like three days out. The ice & weather feed & destroy each other. I think I was more caught up in that than ice extent.
Quoting 295. KoritheMan:


Why are people so fixated on the tropics? There's quite literally a myriad of weather to discuss not pertinent to tropical weather.
It's a lerve thang...

Quoting 308. KoritheMan:


What meet and greet? Did I miss something?

(Not like I can go anyway. But you know, curiosity)
The doc said something about come by around some time on Wednesday [up above] and I'd like to think some of the others who got to go will at least go have a drink [even if only non-alcoholic] somewhere....

But what do I know....
Quoting 316. Bluestorm5:
AMS conference was a lot of fun when I was there for two days. Just wish I could have stayed longer and meet other bloggers.
May you have many other years of attendance... I think it's pretty cool you got your 2 days....
320. txjac
Quoting 319. BahaHurican:
May you have many other years of attendance... I think it's pretty cool you got your 2 days....


I agree. It's nice to see them realizing their dreams. And meeting like people that are living their dream.
Makes a second mom proud
Quoting 319. BahaHurican:
May you have many other years of attendance... I think it's pretty cool you got your 2 days....
Especially as a freshman. That's a huge advantage I will have over other meteorology students in the country.
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.

The following article is courtesy of nigel20:

!!! In the Caribbean, Fighting Climate Change With Entrepreneurship An excellent article! Short but about something I think will be important.

************************************************* ************************************************** *******

Keystone Foe Tom Steyer Urges Review of 'Defective' Analysis


* Graphene circuit's wireless promise


Warmth spurs plants to move or bloom earlier

!!! Dramatic thinning of Arctic lake ice cuts winter ice season by 24 days compared to 1950

*** Pesticides increase risk for Parkinson's disease: Certain people may be more susceptible

!!! Greenland's fastest glacier reaches record speeds


* Written all over your face: Humans express four basic emotions rather than six

* Greenhouse 'time machine' sheds light on corn domestication

Big chill to understand quark-gluon plasma of early universe

New understanding could result in more efficient organic solar cells

!!! Nature can, selectively, buffer human-caused global warming, say scientists Discuss.

To calculate long-term conservation pay off, factor in people

* GE misstated chemical harm to NY's Hudson River: federal trustees

Truck in the snow: Warming to hit future Winter Games

Georgia asks Supreme Court to reject Florida water suit

Alaska Editorials

White Houses' Chief of Staff Denis McDonough vague on Keystone next steps

To Study Male Aggression, a Fight Club for Flies


*** In the End, It All Adds Up to minus 1/12

TechKnow 123: A machine keeps lungs breathing, and tracking shark behavior

************************************************* ************************************************** *******

The following articles are courtesy of etxwx:

!!! In China's war on bad air, government decision to release data gives fresh hope

Anti-Regulation Politics May Have Hurt Energy Industry

*** Without Keystone, oil trains may cause six deaths per year: U.S. State Department report


Keystone Ardor Cools Among Producers With More Options

Old idea for new rail safety problem: slow down trains carrying crude

Proposed pipeline biggest in company history (and nope, it's not Keystone)

*** California farmers brace for drought, unemployment

Pennsylvania inventors work on 'radical reuse' for bottles

* South Texas ant variety may fend off invasive ants
Anybody remember Epsilon? My favorite storm of all time.
Roy Spencer reporting December & January were the 3rd coldest in the last 30 years. Of course, like the CEI and the National Review said about Dr. Mann, he's tortured and molested the data. So we'll have to wait and see for the official data.
Quoting 326. ClimateChange:
Roy Spencer reporting December & January were the 3rd coldest in the last 30 years. Of course, like the CEI and the National Review said about Dr. Mann, he's tortured and molested the data. So we'll have to wait and see for the official data.


I don't know about December & January (December was kinda warm), but Nashville had its coldest January in 29 years...Coldest since '85, and 15th coldest on record.


(see link for table)

JANUARY 2014 RANKS AS THE 15TH COLDEST ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 32.4 DEGREES. FROM THE TABLE ABOVE ONE CAN SEE THAT THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL JANUARIES MUCH COLDER THAN 2014.

EVEN THOUGH JANUARY 2014 WAS MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL THERE WERE NO RECORDS TIED OR SET.

RAINFALL TOTALED 2.61 INCHES WHICH IS 1.14 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.

SNOWFALL TOTALED 0.4 INCH...BRINGING THE TOTAL FOR THE WINTER SEASON TO 1.3 INCHES.

NO THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED DURING THE MONTH.

THE AVERAGE WIND SPEED WAS 8.5 MILES AN HOUR. THE FASTEST GUST WAS 43 MILES AN HOUR ON THE 5TH.

FOG OCCURRED ON 12 DAYS...NONE WITH DENSE FOG.

$$

BOYD
Quoting 317. Skyepony:


Overall Arctic Basin (in the middle) took a little overall loss in ice the last few days. Bering sea lost big.. ~150,000sq km.

West of Greenland was more than I gestimated.. ~100,000sq km.

Oh even east of Greenland lost more extent than I eyeballed.

Looking at the hard numbers is even more depressing. I'll say bad.

All unstable like this it is just harder to predict weather patterns than most places, even like three days out. The ice & weather feed & destroy each other. I think I was more caught up in that than ice extent.


thanks Skye.
Quoting 324. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Read about that sunspot on spaceweather. 50% chance of an x-class and aimed right at earth... That wouldn't be pretty... As long as there is no z-class.

The sunspot is wider than Jupiter and could swallow the Earth several times over, just to almost be able to wrap your mind around just how big it is.

Quoting 326. ClimateChange:
Roy Spencer reporting December & January were the 3rd coldest in the last 30 years. Of course, like the CEI and the National Review said about Dr. Mann, he's tortured and molested the data. So we'll have to wait and see for the official data.

I don't know how he arrives at that. Here's Spencer's own UAH data -which only goes through December, apparently.



Link
Quoting 313. Neapolitan:
Mostly correct; global warming has not slowed. Surface warming, however, has, as the oceans have been warming at a greatly increased rate. So far as the Arctic, I don't believe an ice free year is so far away; I still believe 2016 - 2020 is completely within the realm of possibility.


2016-2020 could happen as the ice present is very young and thin, while the aged thicker ice has plummeted in the last two decades. For the Arctic to be clear of ice in that short time frame, a point of no return which accelerates the melt and retards the winter growth will have to be reached. The Arctic has been well above average this year because of the blocking high off the NW coast which has been persistent all winter and it remains to be seen if following winters will have this phenomenon. With a warm winter, and the ice being more disconnected due to continuous storms, it makes one think this year could be similar to what we saw in 2012 in the amount of ice loss coming this summer, a record loss is possible if not likely. Lot of variables go into ice loss though, we'll have to wait and see what the Arctic Ocean looks like this summer; should go a long way to ballparking a likely end date for an open Arctic Ocean. As Skye pointed out what has just happened in the Bering Sea, loss can be rapid, and that total is startling.
Quoting 293. Haiyan2013:
What, do you not like tropical discussions in February?


No, they're fine if there is something to actually talk about. Currently, in my opinion, the world's oceans are quiet.

Plenty of other items of weather to talk about, from the snowstorms this week in the US to flooding in the UK, amongst other things.
No no really it's fine, I didn't want to have a spring break anyway.
Down to 60 days left for the rainy season in California. With the blocking high building back in off the NW coast, this does not bode well for the state. Need an inch of rain a week for the next eight weeks to offset this epic drought to any real extent. If this doesn't come to fruition, this story will be much bigger come summer as tens of billions in produce will be at real risk for 25-50% loss if not more and cities may run out of water. California's GDP is on par with Canada's or Italy's. The economic hurt will be devastating to the country as a whole. Put that on level with this possibly becoming a multiple year or decade or longer severe drought and you could see a mass exodus from the state and incredible measures taken for cities to maintain water; cities may run out of water all together; what then?
www.solarham.net

Updated 02/04/2014 @ 04:15 UTC

M-Flares Resume

Solar activity increased once again with a pair of M-Flares detected around sunspot 1967. The first event, an M3.8 flare, was detected at 01:23 UTC. This was followed up by a very impulsive M5.2 flare at 04:00 UTC. More flaring will be possible during the next 24 hours. So far none of the detected flares as of late have produced a noteworthy coronal mass ejection (CME). This could change if an even larger flare were to take place. Stay Tuned.

Quoting 335. DeepSeaRising:
Down to 60 days left for the rainy season in California. With the blocking high building back in off the NW coast, this does not bode well for the state. Need an inch of rain a week for the next eight weeks to offset this epic drought to any real extent. If this doesn't come to fruition, this story will be much bigger come summer as tens of billions in produce will be at real risk for 25-50% loss if not more and cities may run out of water. California's GDP is on par with Canada's or Italy's. The economic hurt will be devastating to the country as a whole. Put that on level with this possibly becoming a multiple year or decade or longer severe drought and you could see a mass exodus from the state and incredible measures taken for cities to maintain water; cities may run out of water all together; what then?


I heard that someone was building one of those saltwater conversion plants. Take sea water, get rid of the salt, treat it, and boom! Fresh, drinkable water. But that doesn't fight the problem, only a temporary treatment, and an expensive one at that.


This would be a heck of a blizzard.
737 PM CST MON FEB 3 2014

...FREEZING FOG AND SLICK AREA ROADS LIKELY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...

TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING OVER MOST
OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND BY 9 PM...EVERYONE WILL BE BELOW FREEZING.

WITH FOG DEVELOPING AND AREA ROADWAYS STILL WET FROM YESTERDAY`S
RAINFALL...MANY AREA ROADWAYS WILL BECOME SLICK TONIGHT. BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES WILL BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO ICING. SOME OF THIS
ICING MAY FORM AS A THIN COATING OF GLAZED ICE KNOWN AS BLACK
ICE...WHICH IS VIRTUALLY TRANSPARENT...AND OCCURS WITH LITTLE OR
NO WARNING. PLEASE EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT AND DURING THE TUESDAY
MORNING COMMUTE AS ANY ICE THAT FORMS WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.


*facepalm* We never got ABOVE freezing today, NWS, of course everyone is below freezing by 9.

*rolls eyes*

Edit: Actually, I am at the same temperature I have been at for the last 1,2,4,6,12 hours: 30.4 degrees F.
Quoting 337. Astrometeor:


I heard that someone was building one of those saltwater conversion plants. Take sea water, get rid of the salt, treat it, and boom! Fresh, drinkable water. But that doesn't fight the problem, only a temporary treatment, and an expensive one at that.


Yeah desalination plants are incredible. The are super expensive and to supply California with what they need it would take well over a trillion in spending to build enough of em. Who knows though, California is arguably the most important economic state in America, it may come to just that. Can't just let the state dry up completely and drag the rest of us down with it.
Good evening guys!
Quoting 340. DeepSeaRising:


Yeah desalination plants are incredible. The are super expensive and to supply California with what they need it would take well over a trillion in spending to build enough of em. Who knows though, California is arguably the most important economic state in America, it may come to just that. Can't just let the state dry up completely and drag the rest of us down with it.

The question also is of what to do with the salt, and how to fix the long-term trend (of increasing population/water use). And... desalinization of that scale would also place significant pressure on the power grid, to boot. (Cali gets a lot of their power from hydroelectric - which drops during droughts)
.DISCUSSION...

NOT A WHOLE LOT TO CHANGE AT UPDATE TIME TONIGHT. BIGGEST STORY
WILL BE THE PATCHY FREEZING FOG AROUND MIDDLE TENNESSEE. WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AND VISIBILITIES MAINLY IN THE 1 TO 4
MILE RANGE...WE DON`T NEED AN ADVISORY...BUT IF VISIBILITIES START
TO BECOME 1/4 OR 1/2 MILE ON A MORE WIDESPREAD BASIS...A FREEZING
FOG ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
ENOUGH TO KEEP THIS FROM HAPPENING BUT JUST KNOW IT`S A
POSSIBILITY LATER TONIGHT.

THE CONCERN WITH ANY FREEZING FOG WILL BE ELEVATED ROADWAYS AND
BRIDGES THAT COULD EASILY ICE OVER. PLEASE USE CAUTION TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING
UNTIL AT LEAST 9 AM.
Quoting 338. VAbeachhurricanes:


This would be a heck of a blizzard.


As if that's not enough


345. JRRP

14






A touch of late night nonsense
It's been two years since storm chaser Andy Gabrielson, one of the better photographers of the past few decades, lost his life to a wrong-way driver in Oklahoma. The weather community has lost too many people over the past few years...Matt Hughes, Andy, Tim/Paul Samaras, Carl Young, among many others...people that really changed how we view and understand storms. RIP.

My inherent nerdiness perpetuates as I slowly continue my drudgery through the National Hurricane Center tropical cyclone advisory archive. I've literally read every single advisory on every single storm encompassing the Atlantic and Pacific since 1998. I'm now up to 2007, reading about Ivo's gentle trajectory toward the southern Baja Peninsula.

Funny how lackluster the Atlantic was barring Dean, Felix, and Humberto.
Quoting 348. KoritheMan:
My inherent nerdiness perpetuates as I slowly continue my drudgery through the National Hurricane Center tropical cyclone advisory archive. I've literally read every single advisory on every single storm encompassing the Atlantic and Pacific since 1998. I'm now up to 2007, reading about Ivo's gentle trajectory toward the southern Baja Peninsula.

Funny how lackluster the Atlantic was barring Dean, Felix, and Humberto.

Why are we always the only two posting this late?
Quoting 349. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Why are we always the only two posting this late?


Because everyone hates us and doesn't want our company.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #21
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER TC FLETCHER (08U)
4:55 PM EST February 4 2014
============================================

At 4:00 PM EST, Tropical Low, Former Fletcher (995 hPa) located at 16.9S 141.2E or overland about 85 km north of Normanton and 35 km south of Gilbert River Mouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving west southwest at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: N/A

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS 17.4S 140.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 17.6S 138.1E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================
Rapid scan visible imagery shows an ongoing small, tight circulation near the southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria coast about 40 kilometers to the south of the Gilbert River mouth. Currently the circulation is poorly defined on radar due to a lack of significant convection and the distance of the system from the radar.

Most deep convection has been displaced northward of the system center associated with the monsoonal flow and strong upper level diffluent equatorward flow. Convection has been limited near the center during daylight hours.

After drifting to the south this morning, the circulation has taken a more west to southwesterly track in recent hours. The circulation will likely cross the coast and re-enter southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters during this evening. Numerical models are consistent in steering the system on the current west southwest track across the southern Gulf of Carpentaria. This may be sufficient to briefly redevelop the system to cyclone intensity. However, the negative impacts of land combined with increasing vertical wind shear reduce the chance of the system redeveloping.

The system is expected to cross the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast on Wednesday and weaken over land as it travels across far northwestern Queensland.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Northern Territory/Queensland border to Gilbert River Mouth
Quoting 350. KoritheMan:


Because everyone hates us and doesn't want our company.


Nah the rest of us are so exhausted that we can not contribute anything coherent to the conversation.

See?
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 10-20132014
10:00 AM RET February 4 2014
==========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance (1000 hPa) located at 15.8S 60.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving southeast at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS 16.8S 60.3E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS 18.3S 59.7E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS 22.0S 57.7E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS 27.6S 54.1E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
========================
The suspect area that has been monitored over the western part of the monsoon trough has shown some evident signs of intensification mainly during the last 12 hours. The low level circulation presentation, through still broad and ill-defined, is improving according to latest fix (SSMIS 0347z, partial ASCAT-A of 0545z). The available Dvorak analysis range from 1.0 to 1.5 in agreement with the winds shown on the ASCAT pass.

The system tracked south eastwards under the steering influence of the monsoon flow. It should gradually turn southwards and then south southwestwards over the northwestern edge of the subtropical ridge and ahead of a deep mid-lat trough located to the southeast of Madagascar. Numerical weather prediction guidance are in good agreement with that track showing just some long-track spread. Therefore, there is good confidence in the current track forecast that is adjusted with the first ECMWF outputs from 0000z.

Environmental conditions are good (low shear, good upper level divergence on both sides) with only a lack of low level inflow over the southern semi-circle as a negative factor. Gradual strengthening is therefore expected. South of 20.0S, the northerly shear is expected to increase, but Numerical weather prediction guidance also suggest a positive interaction with the upper level dynamics associated with the mid-lat trough that should maintain to the south-east of Madagascar.

The system show and should maintain a highly asymmetric circulation with all the significant weather located very close to the center and mainly extended in the eastern semi-circle.

Due to the expected track, the inhabitants of the Mascaregnes islands (particularly Mauritius island) should closely monitor the progress of the system.
Quoting 352. daddyjames:


Nah the rest of us are so exhausted that we can not contribute anything coherent to the conversation.

See?


I dunno; your vernacular seems to indicate that you are more alert than "exhausted". :)
Quoting 354. KoritheMan:


I dunno; your vernacular seems to indicate that you are more alert than "exhausted". :)


Ah, the caffeine finally kicked in - well, my eyes have yet to catch up with the brain.
Good Morning..NWS pegged this right..VERY Foggy here this morning on the coast..
Good morning everyone with an update about the weather around me, but not in my place in the mid of Germany fortunately.



Europe hit by severe blizzards
BBC video (see above), 1 hour ago
A quarter of Slovenians have been left without electricity, as parts of Europe battle some of the worst winter blizzards for decades.
Around 40% of the country's schools have been closed, transport is disrupted and residents in some areas have been advised not to drink tap water.
Parts of Croatia, Serbia, and Germany have also been severely affected by snow.
Alpa Patel reports.



Storm and giant waves - High waters - Ice
Map from wetteronline.

-------------------

Stormy year lands insurers 7-billion-Euros bill
The Local, published: 02 Jan 2014 16:42 GMT 01:00
German insurers had an expensive 2013, paying out an estimated 7 billion Euros to cover the damage caused by freak weather including the summer floods, heavy hail, and winter storms.
President of the German Insurers Association (GDV) Alexander Erdland said: "The accumulation of various weather extremes within just a few months made 2013 an exceptional year." ...
Near record heat expected across S.W. Fl
Record high for Fort Myers is 87 degrees.
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 39 degrees, wind chill of 35 with rain on and off. We're supposed to have rain most of the day, but temps are supposed to go up to 59, which means it'll get to about the low to mid 40's.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Slow-Poached Eggs with Shrimp and cheesy Grits, regular or whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, crepes filled with cream cheese and strawberries, topped with whipped cream, eggs and hash browns, Egg, bagels with cream cheese and jelly or lox, cinnamon streusel muffins, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
360. MahFL
Looking at the hard numbers is even more depressing.


Er, why is it depressing Earth is warming ? Do you really want glaciers to form and wipe out 1000's of cities ?
361. MahFL
Quoting 356. LargoFl:
Good Morning..NWS pegged this right..VERY Foggy here this morning on the coast..


Fog and low visibility ? I would have thought any fog would mean low visibility ?
Winter Storm Warning



Mobile & Email Alerts
Statement as of 4:36 AM EST on February 04, 2014


... Winter Storm Warning in effect from midnight tonight to 6 PM
EST Wednesday...

The National Weather Service in New York has issued a Winter
Storm Warning for snow and ice... which is in effect
from midnight tonight to 6 PM EST Wednesday. The Winter Storm
Watch is no longer in effect.

* Locations... southern Connecticut... northern portions of the New
York City metropolitan area and portions of northeast New Jersey.

* Hazard types... mainly snow along with some sleet and freezing
rain.

* Accumulations... snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches... along
with around a tenth of an inch of ice.

* Visibilities... one quarter to one half mile.

* Timing... snow late tonight through Wednesday morning... mixing
with and changing to sleet and freezing rain later Wednesday.

* Impacts... snow and ice on roads will create hazardous travel.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow
are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an
emergency. If you must travel... keep an extra flashlight... food...
and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

363. VR46L
Good Morning folks !

Quoting 361. MahFL:


Fog and low visibility ? I would have thought any fog would mean low visibility ?


LOL !! So would I ....


Quoting 362. hurricanes2018:
Winter Storm Warning



Mobile & Email Alerts
Statement as of 4:36 AM EST on February 04, 2014


... Winter Storm Warning in effect from midnight tonight to 6 PM
EST Wednesday...

The National Weather Service in New York has issued a Winter
Storm Warning for snow and ice... which is in effect
from midnight tonight to 6 PM EST Wednesday. The Winter Storm
Watch is no longer in effect.

* Locations... southern Connecticut... northern portions of the New
York City metropolitan area and portions of northeast New Jersey.

* Hazard types... mainly snow along with some sleet and freezing
rain.

* Accumulations... snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches... along
with around a tenth of an inch of ice.

* Visibilities... one quarter to one half mile.

* Timing... snow late tonight through Wednesday morning... mixing
with and changing to sleet and freezing rain later Wednesday.

* Impacts... snow and ice on roads will create hazardous travel.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow
are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an
emergency. If you must travel... keep an extra flashlight... food...
and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

gee they just had 5-8 inches wow
365. VR46L
Interesting Vapour Image today , has the storm been named yet .....

Quoting 361. MahFL:


Fog and low visibility ? I would have thought any fog would mean low visibility ?
yeah they want drivers to slow down so they give the warning..low visability..this week we had 3 people in 3 different accidents..crash into tree's and all died...amazing
cold front coming in 7 days..dont get used to this heat lol..
7-day tampa bay area...
Link

Another storm will hit Uk...I lost the number of storms this season...
Freezing Rain Advisory

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
410 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

DCZ001-MDZ013-014-VAZ025-026-036>039-051>054-502> 504-WVZ505-506-
041715-
/O.NEW.KLWX.ZR.Y.0003.140205T0000Z-140205T1100Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-AUGUSTA-
ROCKINGHAM-NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-CULPEP ER-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-
WESTERN HIGHLAND-EASTERN HIGHLAND-WESTERN PENDLETON-
EASTERN PENDLETON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...ANNAPOLIS...STAUNTON...
WAYNESBORO...HARRISONBURG...CHARLOTTESVILLE...CUL PEPER...
MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...
HIGHTOWN...MONTEREY...CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN
410 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM
THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO ONE-TENTH INCH OF ICE FROM FREEZING RAIN.

* TIMING...FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN CHANGE TO RAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...NEAR 30 THIS EVENING RISING INTO THE LOWER 30S
LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY
FROM ICE. TRAVEL MAY BECOME DIFFICULT DURING THIS TIME.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$
372. MahFL
Quoting 365. VR46L:
Interesting Vapour Image today , has the storm been named yet .....



Winter Storm Nika.
looks like we have a real winter this year huh...
Frost Advisory

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
328 AM PST TUE FEB 4 2014

CAZ036-044-041700-
/O.CON.KLOX.FR.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-140204T1700Z/
SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SANTA YNEZ...SOLVANG...SANTA PAULA...
FILLMORE...OJAI...PIRU
328 AM PST TUE FEB 4 2014

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING...

* TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE COLDEST LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING LOW
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 28 AND 32 DEGREES.

* IMPACTS...FROST CAN DAMAGE SENSITIVE PLANTS AND HARM PETS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS IMMINENT. MEASURES SHOULD BE
TAKEN TO PROTECT SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS. PETS SHOULD BE BROUGHT
INDOORS.

&&

$$

ASR
375. VR46L
Quoting 315. BahaHurican:
This and the Mauritius site are two I like to use a lot from Jan - April. Fiji's gotten better the last couple of years.


Yes I use the Aus site have also been using the New Caledonia one too I dont have the Mauritius one ... will be on a mission to find it now !
Quoting 355. daddyjames:


Ah, the caffeine finally kicked in - well, my eyes have yet to catch up with the brain.


Graduate student coffee has to pass the quarter test.

Brew the coffee.
Drop a quarter in the pot.
If it sinks the coffee is too weak.

377. VR46L
Quoting 370. matara28:
Link

Another storm will hit Uk...I lost the number of storms this season...


expecting four in the next 10 days ...sigh !
378. VR46L
Quoting 372. MahFL:


Winter Storm Nika.


Thanks , I don't know if its a snobish attitude I have but I rarely look at that site at all ...
Quoting 332. DeepSeaRising:


2016-2020 could happen as the ice present is very young and thin, while the aged thicker ice has plummeted in the last two decades. For the Arctic to be clear of ice in that short time frame, a point of no return which accelerates the melt and retards the winter growth will have to be reached. The Arctic has been well above average this year because of the blocking high off the NW coast which has been persistent all winter and it remains to be seen if following winters will have this phenomenon. With a warm winter, and the ice being more disconnected due to continuous storms, it makes one think this year could be similar to what we saw in 2012 in the amount of ice loss coming this summer, a record loss is possible if not likely. Lot of variables go into ice loss though, we'll have to wait and see what the Arctic Ocean looks like this summer; should go a long way to ballparking a likely end date for an open Arctic Ocean. As Skye pointed out what has just happened in the Bering Sea, loss can be rapid, and that total is startling.


2008-2013 were mostly above normal ice extent years in the Bering Sea in WINTER (not summer). 2008 and 2012 were record large extent years (in the Bering Sea only), again in WINTER as Alaska averaged unusually cold. These years (and all years since 2007) have continuously been below average total arctic extent except for a few days in March 2012 which were normal, followed by a record low extent six months later.

This year is obviously different in the Bering Sea as grossly anomalous warmth retards or reverses winter ice growth there. The rest of the Arctic is unusually low extent also but other years have been lower at this time of year.

I'm also expecting an almost totally ice free late summer Arctic within ten years. A small amount will persist on the Canadian side near the coast long after the pole is ice free and Santa is swimming
To far out but look at the GFS! look at FL!
Quoting 377. VR46L:


expecting four in the next 10 days ...sigh !

I think that this season had broken a record. Too many storms...
Hello Everyone,

I am sure happy about the results on Ground Hog Day, that most areas will have six more weeks of winter. That means my location in Central California will have ten more weeks of winter.

Sincerely,
Dave
383. JRRP
dr masters only got 39 likes for this blog. jeez jerry garcia got thousands and hes dead. kinda cloudy maybe a few showers and warm 68f e cent fl
385. ARiot
lower end of the mid atlantic I95 area dodged a bullet yesterday, we mostly got rain followed by about an inch of snow and ice pellets over on my side of Harford CO.

Here's a daily rain record for B'more:

Statement as of 12:22 am EST on February 04, 2014



... Record daily maximum rainfall set at Baltimore MD...

a record rainfall of 1.34 inch(es) was set at Baltimore MD yesterday.
This breaks the old record of 1.3 set in 1939.

In other news, The set up is in for Freezing Rain tonight. When I lived in MD before (two tours) I don't recall any significant freezing rain, but I suspect they deal with it as well as snow, at least on the main roads. Growing up down south, I learned to hate freezing rain, it always made the power go out :D
Quoting 384. islander101010:
dr masters only got 39 likes for this blog. jeez jerry garcia got thousands and hes dead. kinda cloudy maybe a few showers and warm 68f e cent fl


As long as I can remember, Jeff rarely gets over 100 likes here. Strange, huge disconnect between what people should care and be interested in and what they are. Sports, Justin Beber, etc, and people can't get enough. Top twenty searches on the internet are usually for pop stars, movie stars, and the like. People just want their daily forecasts, and in a society that is increasingly anti intellectual; deeply caring about climate and weather just isn't all that important. Ask someone what's going on in Homs (Syria) or with AGW, and usually you'll get a confused look. Sad.
Quoting 379. georgevandenberghe:


2008-2013 were mostly above normal ice extent years in the Bering Sea in WINTER (not summer). 2008 and 2012 were record large extent years (in the Bering Sea only), again in WINTER as Alaska averaged unusually cold. These years (and all years since 2007) have continuously been below average total arctic extent except for a few days in March 2012 which were normal, followed by a record low extent six months later.

This year is obviously different in the Bering Sea as grossly anomalous warmth retards or reverses winter ice growth there. The rest of the Arctic is unusually low extent also but other years have been lower at this time of year.

I'm also expecting an almost totally ice free late summer Arctic within ten years. A small amount will persist on the Canadian side near the coast long after the pole is ice free and Santa is swimming
the summer peak of 2015 will have next to nothing if nothing at all for ice cover


Quoting 385. ARiot:
lower end of the mid atlantic I95 area dodged a bullet yesterday, we mostly got rain followed by about an inch of snow and ice pellets over on my side of Harford CO.

Here's a daily rain record for B'more:

Statement as of 12:22 am EST on February 04, 2014



... Record daily maximum rainfall set at Baltimore MD...

a record rainfall of 1.34 inch(es) was set at Baltimore MD yesterday.
This breaks the old record of 1.3 set in 1939.

In other news, The set up is in for Freezing Rain tonight. When I lived in MD before (two tours) I don't recall any significant freezing rain, but I suspect they deal with it as well as snow, at least on the main roads. Growing up down south, I learned to hate freezing rain, it always made the power go out :D


You are correct. We can deal with it here, mostly with salt and pretreatment. Tonight's event looks like a hassle but not a crippling (power loss or surprise icing e.g. Feb 2008) event in the metro areas. North and West of us looks much worse.
Quoting 389. DeepSeaRising:


As long as I can remember, Jeff rarely gets over 100 likes here. Strange, huge disconnect between what people should care and be interested in and what they are. Sports, Justin Beber, etc, and people can't get enough. Top twenty searches on the internet are usually for pop stars, movie stars, and the like. People just want their daily forecasts, and in a society that is increasingly anti intellectual; deeply caring about climate and weather just isn't all that important. Ask someone what's going on in Homs (Syria) or with AGW, and usually you'll get a confused look. Sad.
And once the worst effects of climate change are upon us, those celebrity-worshiping anti-intellectuals will be the ones most loudly crying, "Why weren't we warned?!"

Sad, indeed...
This could get interesting.
Posted by Dan Satterfield, 31 January 2014,

The Great Facebook Blizzard- Storms and Rumors of Storms

This image posted on a Facebook page went viral this week and caused thousands to think a blizzard was coming.



Another piece of model output was posted online by an Alabama newspaper reporter.



One forecaster expressed his frustration at the whole episode this way…



A Basic Guide To Any Forecast You See Online.

1. Is it from the NWS or a local broadcast meteorologist you trust? If not, disregard.

2. Is the forecast calling for snow or a specific storm to hit beyond 3-5 days from now. If so, disregard and if it is a broadcast meteorologist who is doing it, change the channel. No professional forecaster with a real science background would likely do this.

3. Did you get the forecast from a friend or did you see it on the NWS or a TV Station website/ smart phone App.?? If it was from a friend, and you cannot verify where it came from, ignore it and for my sake, please do not share it!

4. Disregard ANY forecast that is making a determinate forecast of snow/tropical storms or specific temperatures beyond 7 days. No exceptions.

Complete post >>
398. VR46L
West Indian Ocean

A lot of people are quite concerned about the icing potential in PA tonight/tomorrow. I would like snow not ice.
400. VR46L
Quoting 397. Xandra:
Posted by Dan Satterfield, 31 January 2014,

The Great Facebook Blizzard- Storms and Rumors of Storms

This image posted on a Facebook page went viral this week and caused thousands to think a blizzard was coming.



Another piece of model output was posted online by an Alabama newspaper reporter.



One forecaster expressed his frustration at the whole episode this way…



A Basic Guide To Any Forecast You See Online.

1. Is it from the NWS or a local broadcast meteorologist you trust? If not, disregard.

2. Is the forecast calling for snow or a specific storm to hit beyond 3-5 days from now. If so, disregard and if it is a broadcast meteorologist who is doing it, change the channel. No professional forecaster with a real science background would likely do this.

3. Did you get the forecast from a friend or did you see it on the NWS or a TV Station website/ smart phone App.?? If it was from a friend, and you cannot verify where it came from, ignore it and for my sake, please do not share it!

4. Disregard ANY forecast that is making a determinate forecast of snow/tropical storms or specific temperatures beyond 7 days. No exceptions.

Complete post >>



I am sorry , but I will post models that interest me . I dont care if I see a cloud in Africa that Coresponds with a storm predicted in the Atlantic I will post It .
No I know I cant post Weatherbell . Its a hobby to us weather nuts posting finding similarities and differences !and if anyone has the lack of knowledge to believe one run of the GFS or Euro then they need help .,,, Its a form of interest and entertainment to the weather enthusiasts which most people here are ...
The sun is out and it is currently 28 at my location.Apparently I have moved to Seattle without my knowing as it has been very rainy as another rain storm is on the horizon.The ground is soggy and saturated but thanks to cold temps it has harden.
Quoting 399. Doppler22:
A lot of people are quite concerned about the icing potential in PA tonight/tomorrow. I would like snow not ice.
yes all the folks up there driving, be very careful the next few days..stay alert and safe ok
Quoting 380. SFLWeatherman:
To far out but look at the GFS! look at FL!
my local met is dropping the temps here on day 7..we'll see what happens.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
854 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

AMZ650-FLZ067-068-071-072-168-172-041600-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-
COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
854 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

.NOW...
A FEW SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A FEW SHOWERS
OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST BROWARD AND SOUTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTIES
THAT WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR AS THEY ALSO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST.

$$
406. NCstu
Quoting 396. hydrus:
This could get interesting.

Ignorance time! What are the NAO and AO? Is that sea temperatures?
Quoting 406. NCstu:

Ignorance time! What are the NAO and AO? Is that sea temperatures?
Has to do with the polar vortex and blocking in the Atlantic. Negative NAO with a negative AO spells trouble for the eastern third of U.S.
NJ Gov has declared a state of emergency due to snowfall etc...NYC got 8 inches and this new storm is predicted to dump 9 inches and an even bigger storm this weekend will dump more snow....read that on cnn...when i lived up there I always was watchful for feb..some years that month gets heavy snowstorms..looks like this year it does once again..
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
436 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

CTZ005>008-NJZ002-NYZ067>070-041745-
/O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0002.140205T0500Z-140205T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0004.140205T0500Z-140205T2300Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
436 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM
EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND ICE...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...INTERIOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...MAINLY SNOW ALONG WITH SOME SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...ALONG
WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE.

* TIMING...SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...MIXING
WITH AND CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY.

* IMPACTS...SNOW AND ICE ON ROADS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...
AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$
410. VR46L
Quoting 408. LargoFl:
NJ Gov has declared a state of emergency due to snowfall etc...NYC got 8 inches and this new storm is predicted to dump 9 inches and an even bigger storm this weekend will dump more snow....read that on cnn...when i lived up there I always was watchful for feb..some years that month gets heavy snowstorms..looks like this year it does once again..


The Famous Snow Map of the euro is shaping up to have some truth in it !
Quoting 410. VR46L:


The Famous Snow Map of the euro is shaping up to have some truth in it !
yes indeed
all them scary maps

by the time its done
6 foot snow banks all around
Can anyone post one of those temperature anomaly maps for the 6-10 and 11-14 day time frames. And maybe a surface weather map or two for next week. Would be curious to see what is in store for Chicago. Already 52.6 inches of snow has fallen this season and i made a bet at work with a colleague that the area would finish the winter with at least 70 inches of snow. He disagrees :)

Day 1 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 am CST Tuesday Feb 04 2014


Valid 041300z - 051200z


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...


..Lower MS valley region today...
a midlevel shortwave trough over northwest Texas this morning will eject
quickly northeastward to the Ohio Valley by tonight...as associated surface
cyclogenesis occurs from la this afternoon to southeast Ohio by 05/12z.
Elevated convection is expected within a weakly unstable warm
conveyor belt originating over the northwest Gulf Coast. The inland
penetration of the surface warm sector will be limited as a result
of the path of the shortwave trough and cyclogenesis displaced well
to the N-NW...leaving only a small warm sector late today across southern
la/MS. Even though boundary layer dewpoints will increase into the
low and perhaps middle 60s...buoyancy will be limited within the warm
sector as a result of poor midlevel lapse rates and marginal surface
heating/residual cool air. Thus...despite an increase in low-level
flow and vertical shear...the prospects for surface-based storms in
the warm sector appear limited at best...with most of the convection
expected to remain slightly elevated above the residual cool surface
layer and immediately west of the sharpening cold front.


.Thompson/Mosier.. 02/04/2014
Quoting 415. lobdelse81:
Can anyone post one of those temperature anomaly maps for the 6-10 and 11-14 day time frames. And maybe a surface weather map or two for next week. Would be curious to see what is in store for Chicago. Already 52.6 inches of snow has fallen this season and i made a bet at work with a colleague that the area would finish the winter with at least 70 inches of snow. He disagrees :)
sun getting stronger winter might be over for us saw a bald eagle flying around yesterday a sign of spring e cen fl.
Man, what would it take for the Chicago area to see a blockbuster storm like the Groundhog Day Blizzard, Blizzard of 1999, or some of those blizzards like they had in the late 1970s?
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TROPICAL CYCLONE EDNA, CATEGORY ONE (12F)
0:00 AM FST February 5 2014
===========================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Edna, Category One (995 hPa) located at 17.1S 161.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared radar imagery and peripheral surface reports. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 20 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
60 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
30 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
45 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Overall organization has improved significantly in past 24 hours. Deep convection around low level circulation center persistent in the past 12 hours. System lies in a low to moderate sheared environment east of an upper trough. Outflow good to the east and south. Sea surface temperature is around 28C. System is being steered to the southeast by deep layer mean northwesterly.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.6 wrap yielding DT=3.0, MET=3.0, and PT=3.0. Final Dvorak intensity based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24 HRS

Global models agree on a southeastward movement with gradual weakening after 6-12 hours.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS 19.8S 163.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 22.3S 164.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS 26.4S 165.6E - 20 knots (Tropical Depression)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #23
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER TC FLETCHER (08U)
10:56 PM EST February 4 2014
============================================

At 10:00 PM EST, Tropical Low, Former Fletcher (998 hPa) located at 16.7S 141.2E or overland about 105 km north of Normanton and 15 km south southwest of Gilbert River Mouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving northwest at 2 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Fletcher is continuing to be slow-moving in the past 6 hours, centered about 15 km south of the Gilbert River Mouth, near the western Cape York Peninsula coast.

The system is forecast to resume a west-southwest movement during Wednesday, re-entering southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters, where the system may briefly redevelop into a minimal tropical cyclone, before recrossing the southern Gulf coast later on Wednesday. As a result GALES may develop between Gilbert River Mouth and the Northern Territory/Queensland border during Wednesday.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is likely in the Gulf Country district, mainly near coastal parts, over the next couple of days.

People between the Northern Territory/Queensland border and Gilbert River Mouth should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 2 am Wednesday.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS 17.1S 140.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 17.3S 138.8E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================
Rapid scan visible imagery showed an ongoing small, tight circulation near the southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria coast this afternoon, and this evening a convective bloom has developed near and on the northern flank of this center. With this development, some ability to track the mid level circulation on Mornington Island radar has returned. This suggests that the system has remained slow-moving, but very recently it may be just commencing its westwards track.

The recent convective bloom shows some curvature, allowing a 0.3 to maybe 0.4 wrap, giving a DT of 2.0 to 2.5 although this is not strictly relevant given the system's location over land.

The circulation will likely cross the coast and re-enter southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters during this evening. The environment is characterized by very warm sea surface temperatures, but moderate SSE shear. Outflow is good to the north, but restricted to the south. On balance, it appears possible the system may re-strengthen into a minimal tropical cyclone over the southern Gulf on Wednesday.

The system is expected to cross the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast on Wednesday and weaken over land as it travels across far northwestern Queensland.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Northern Territory/Queensland border to Gilbert River Mouth
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 10-20132014
16:00 PM RET February 4 2014
==========================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (999 hPa) located at 16.1S 59.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 4 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
230 NM from the center in eastern semi-circle (the strongest winds are located far away from the center)

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS 17.3S 59.3E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS 19.0S 58.8E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS 23.3S 56.8E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS 29.4S 51.8E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
========================
The system shows since this afternoon a classical monsoon low structure on satellite imagery with weak convective activity near the center and some banding features far away from the center within the monsoon inflow. The overall structure has improved since this morning and it is now estimated that max winds of 30 kt are present far away from the center in the eastern semi-circle. Dvorak estimates (ranging from CI of 1.0 to 2.0 at 1130z) is not well suited for this kind of system.

The system has been re-localized at 0600z near 15.9S 59.8E and moved little since that time (slow southwestwards drift). It should gradually resume on a southwards and then south southwestwards track over the northwestern edge of the subtropical ridge and ahead of a deep mid-lat trough located to the southeast of Madagascar. Numerical weather prediction guidance remains in good agreement with that track showing just some long-track spread. Therefore, there is good confidence in the current track forecast.

Environmental conditions are good (low shear, good upper level divergence on both sides) with only a lack of low level inflow over the southern semi-circle as a negative factor. Gradual strengthening is therefore expected. However the current monsoon low pattern prevents from any rapid intensification for the next 24 hours. Numerical weather prediction models suggest that the structure could be a bit more classical as the system will approach 20s. It is expected to maintain a highly asymmetric circulation with all the significant weather located very close to the center and mainly extended in the eastern semi-circle.

South of 20.0S, the northerly shear is expected to increase, but Numerical weather prediction guidance also suggest a positive interaction with the upper level dynamics associated with the mid-lat trough that should maintain to the southeast of Madagascar.

Due to the expected track, the inhabitants of the Mascaregnes islands (particularly Mauritius island) should closely monitor the progress of the system.
Quoting 419. lobdelse81:
Man, what would it take for the Chicago area to see a blockbuster storm like the Groundhog Day Blizzard, Blizzard of 1999, or some of those blizzards like they had in the late 1970s?
We may get one or two...Those blizzards from the 1970,s are hard to match.
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET February 4 2014
====================================

Disturbed weather area south of the Chagos archipalago:

Since this morning, the convective activity show some signs of organization. Scatt data from this
morning do not allow to detect a closed surface circulation but recent satellite data suggest at least that, at least, a mid to low level circulation may be centered near 13.4S 73.4E.

Currently, environmental conditions are not so conducive as suggested previously: the low level
inflow is rather limited to the north as the monsoon flow is trapped in the circulation of Tropical
Disturbance 10-20132014. Furthermore, Wednesday afternoon, the southeasterly shear is expected to increase somewhat. Thursday, the improvement of the equatorward inflow combined with an easing of the shear should result in a more significant deepening and potentially a rapid intensification.

Undergoing competing steering flows, northwest monsoon flow and East trade winds, the low is expected to slowly shift westward at first. From Friday and beyond, it should take a southwards then southeastwards track under the steering influence of a deep upper to mid-level trough coming from the southeast.

The likelihood that a Tropical Depression develops over the central part of the basin (south of the Chagos archipelago) is moderate on Wednesday. It becomes high on Thursday and Friday.
Quoting 335. DeepSeaRising:
Down to 60 days left for the rainy season in California. With the blocking high building back in off the NW coast, this does not bode well for the state. Need an inch of rain a week for the next eight weeks to offset this epic drought to any real extent. If this doesn't come to fruition, this story will be much bigger come summer as tens of billions in produce will be at real risk for 25-50% loss if not more and cities may run out of water. California's GDP is on par with Canada's or Italy's. The economic hurt will be devastating to the country as a whole. Put that on level with this possibly becoming a multiple year or decade or longer severe drought and you could see a mass exodus from the state and incredible measures taken for cities to maintain water; cities may run out of water all together; what then?


Never mind the restrictions on watering your lawn. The drought is drying up California’s supply of hydroelectricity, prompting SMUD and other utilities around the state to scramble.

With summer’s peak electricity demand season looming, officials who oversee California’s power supply say they don’t expect blackouts but are getting nervous about the meager snowpack. Few states rely on hydro as much as California, where water accounts for about 15 percent of the total power supply in a normal year.


Read more here: Link
Chistopher Landsea and me here just before we met.

Good morning folks tornado season is just about here. Time for people that live in tornado prone areas to take an assessment of what they would do if they were caught in the path of a tornado.



Gonna be a hot one in Orlando as dewpoints in in the low 70's today.


Water temps are warming fast off the east coast of FL. Several days of 85 to 90 degree temps are really warming sea surface temps quick.

actually near the beach air temp. never got much over 80 today we will be lucky to get above 75f acc/ to my rain gauge we got over 4 inches on the last two day event. well needed
Quoting 432. StormTrackerScott:
Gonna be a hot one in Orlando as dewpoints in in the low 70's today.


Very warm here also
Quoting 408. LargoFl:
NJ Gov has declared a state of emergency due to snowfall etc...NYC got 8 inches and this new storm is predicted to dump 9 inches and an even bigger storm this weekend will dump more snow....read that on cnn...when i lived up there I always was watchful for feb..some years that month gets heavy snowstorms..looks like this year it does once again..
My last hope for an honest politician has vanished
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Water temps are warming fast off the east coast of FL. Several days of 85 to 90 degree temps are really warming sea surface temps quick.



Where was there 90 degree temperatures? None.
Quoting 433. StormTrackerScott:
Water temps are warming fast off the east coast of FL. Several days of 85 to 90 degree temps are really warming sea surface temps quick.



90? Haven't seen temps that warm.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 415. lobdelse81:
Can anyone post one of those temperature anomaly maps for the 6-10 and 11-14 day time frames. And maybe a surface weather map or two for next week. Would be curious to see what is in store for Chicago. Already 52.6 inches of snow has fallen this season and i made a bet at work with a colleague that the area would finish the winter with at least 70 inches of snow. He disagrees :)


The ones from CPC are probability of anomaly, not maginitude of anomaly.