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SnowedOutAtlanta: Extreme Travel Chaos in the Deep South

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:40 PM GMT on January 29, 2014

A dangerous winter storm swept through the Deep South on Tuesday, dumping 1 - 4" of snow and 1/4" - 1/2" of ice on a region unused to dealing with severe winter weather. Travel chaos resulted in many cities, and at least nine people died in storm-related accidents. Officially, 2.6" of snow fell at the Atlanta Airport from Winter Storm Leon, and snow amounts across the city ranged from 1.5" - 3.5". But with temperatures in the low 20s, and only 40 snow plows and 30 sand trucks to handle the snow, Atlanta streets and highways quickly turned into parking lots during the afternoon snow, as schools, businesses, and government offices all closed nearly simultaneously, sending a huge number of vehicles onto the roads. Atlanta experienced its worst traffic day of all-time, and thousands of motorists were forced to abandon their vehicles, with many spending the night sheltering in stores, stalled cars, or strangers' homes. A Facebook group dubbed SnowedOutAtlanta, meant to connect stranded motorists with people willing to put them up for the night, had thousands of members by Tuesday night. Thousands of children never made it home, and were forced to spend the night at their schools or at bus shelters. There were 1200 confirmed traffic accidents in Atlanta, with at least 130 injuries, according to media reports. It was Atlanta's worst driving day since the infamous Snow Jam of 1982, when 6" of snow also created traffic chaos, stranding thousands of motorists.

The Weather Channel's Paul Goodloe had this to say about his evening commute home Tuesday night:

"On my drive home tonight, I gave a ride to a school bus driver who was walking on a road that was littered with abandoned cars.  He said his bus got stuck with kids on it not far from the school. They walked back.  He told me there are several hundred kids spending the night at East Cobb Middle and several hundred high school kids spending the night at Wheeler High. He said several buses were involved in traffic accidents, usually with other people running into the buses.  One bus was hit on all 4 sides."


Figure 1. Traffic gridlock in Atlanta on Tuesday afternoon, January 28, 2014. Image credit: @beercontrol/twitter.


Figure 2. Snow began falling in Atlanta at 11:15 am on Tuesday, and the progression of traffic gridlock in the city was remarkably swift as everyone left school and work simultaneously and flooded area roads. Image credit: Kevin O. via Twitter.

Dangerous travel continues on Wednesday
After a morning low of 11° in Atlanta on Wednesday morning, the temperature will struggle to reach the freezing mark, resulting in little improvement in road conditions during the day. A Winter Storm Warning continues for Atlanta throughout this afternoon, even though skies are sunny, and no precipitation is expected. I don't think I've even seen a Winter Storm Warning issued with a forecast of clear skies, but if it helps keep people off the roads, it's a great idea:

"… Winter Storm Warning now in effect until 1 PM EST this afternoon...
* locations... northern Georgia.
* Hazard types... continued hazardous driving conditions due to snow and ice covered roads.
* Accumulations... no additional accumulations.
* Timing... now through this afternoon.
* Impacts... snow and ice covered roadways will make travel extremely treacherous. Numerous vehicle accidents have already been reported across northern Georgia. Stay off the roadways if possible."


At 1 pm, this Winter Storm Warning was replaced with a "Civil Emergency Message", which is the way situations like this should be handled in the future.
Atlanta was warned well in advance of the winter storm, but local officials failed to plan properly for the storm. Advances in weather forecasting won't help much if people don't use the information to make the right decisions. J. Marshall Shepherd, a University of Georgia professor who serves as the current head of the American Meteorological Society, had these points to make in his blog post, "An Open Thank You to Meteorologists in Atlanta":

1.  The public needs to clearly understand what Watch, Warning, and Advisory mean rather than what they “think” they mean. Also, they must understand that a Watch for a winter event has nuanced differences than tornado, hurricane, or other warnings.

2.  Should we develop “warnings” that are more clearly meaningful to the public like a number or index? Research and scholarly discussion will be required, but increasingly, social science research is revealing that how people consume information is as critical as giving them the right information.

3.  The public must watch the evolving forecast not a snapshot they saw 2  or so days ago. The forecasts change.

4.  A friend (not a meteorologist but an intelligent, attentive citizen) noted that a few media outlets, at times, showed 4 different model scenarios at times. She noted that this is confusing to the public. I agree. We, as meteorologists, use an array of model tools, diagnostics, or data. Does the public need to see “the sausage making” or the scenarios we weigh out?  When these scenarios are shown on TV or a website, we, as professionals, know how to consume them, but the public may be confused or misinterpret the message.

5. Forecasting capacity in the 1-5 day window is quite good, but as we get to local-to-regional scales and 1-24 hour time frame (“the mesoscale”), the processes are not as well-represented in the models. We know where improvements are needed. Budget cuts, travel restrictions, and other policy decisions hinder research and development that lead to improvements for citizens.

6.  We still have challenges in how weather information is consumed, interpreted, or viewed by policymakers and decision-makers. This is ultimately the root of the Atlanta mess from Tuesday, in my view. I don't believe "anyone" is necessarily to blame. The situation simply points out that we still have challenges in communicating across the science-decisionmaker-public "gap."  



Figure 3. People work to clear stranded vehicles on County Road 25, Tuesday Jan. 28, 2014 in Wilsonville, Ala. (AP Photo/Hal Yeager)

Freezing rain and snow end across the South
Though freezing rain and snow from Winter Storm Leon have ended across most of the South, temperatures well below freezing will continue to keep traffic paralyzed over a swath of the country from East Texas to Eastern North Carolina. Atlanta wasn't the only city with extreme traffic problems. Birmingham, Alabama looked much like Atlanta, with thousands of drivers stuck and hundreds of children unable to get home; Tuscaloosa, Alabama declared a state of emergency and ordered all non-emergency vehicles off the road; 124 miles of I-10 in the Florida Panhandle were closed on Wednesday morning due to ice. Fortunately, the freezing rain was not great enough to cause serious power outages, with ice accumulations generally under 1/4". Here are a few of the power outage numbers as of midnight on Tuesday:

NC: Two utilities reporting 2,528 without power
SC: Two utilities report 997 without electricity
GA: One utility reports 1,260 without power
TX: Three utilities report 914 without power
LA: Two utilities, 417 without power

Jeff Masters
Winter hits the South
Winter hits the South
Winter hits the South
Alabama Snow ? ! ? !
Alabama Snow ? ! ? !
Simple Alabama Snowman.
Snow Day
Snow Day
Winter Storm, blustery cold and snow!!

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 479. Dakster:


Do you get confused watching a weather forecast when the forecaster says here are three possible outcomes?

Not me personally, no. But I do not "watch" weather forecasts so much anymore, I'm usually involved with briefings and/or looking at data myself.

But again, this won't be about how I perceive the information provided by media/NWS... it will come down to how the public perceives it. Which is why I suggested that we defer to social scientists working in meteorology. Groups like WAS*IS attempt to deal with that overlap area between the physical side of the science and the social side of the science. We may have reached a point where we cannot make major improvements to the science side (in regards to reducing casualties and mitigating property loss), but we may be able to make improvements to how our forecasts are conveyed. I look at models everyday. So do many other operational forecasters and even enthusiasts on blogs. As such, our opinions can be biased on the question of "too many computer models on TV being confusing." Hence why I think Dr. Shephard's concern should be addressed by social scientists, not someone like me.
Quoting 481. Waltanater:
So much for "Global Warming." That "FREEZES" that theory!

Quoting 478. Waltanater:
This "Global Warming" is KILLING us!!!

This May help you Walt..
From NASA..
What's the Difference Between Weather and Climate?



" The difference between weather and climate is a measure of time. Weather is what conditions of the atmosphere are over a short period of time, and climate is how the atmosphere "behaves" over relatively long periods of time."

Quick Google search results..
503. txjac
Quoting 499. Drakoen:
I think that most people on this blog, or at least I hope, know that the models are just models and not actual official forecast. Then again, we had an incident today with someone complaining about the snow maps posted here contradicting what they actually got (even though it was stressed for the umpteenth time what the actual interpretation of the map should be but we won't get into that ;) ). Maybe we should have a system set up where we have to have our degrees scanned into an online system before we can look at the models LOL. Aside from that always heed to official (NWS) forecasts before anything on this blog. The Atlanta situation was a complete screw up and they should have prepared for the storm as they were warned and had ample time to prepare.


What I see missing now a days is a degree in "common sense"
Quoting 487. PedleyCA:


Not a clue, but it is nice on the West Coast (CA).


I would never complain about 70s and low humidity.
505. VR46L
Quoting 492. PedleyCA:


Not for us down here, but it puts the water where the Northern Half of Calif needs it to be. We have a 20% chance of rain for Thursday and Friday.

Here Comes The Rain Again


Love that tune !

I hope you get to splash in some puddles :)
Dakster if you're around, hi from Shula's, yeah I'm missing all the fun in NFla, posting is hard on an old cell phone so HI!!! And its 64 in Miami Lakes
507. txjac
Quoting 501. ScottLincoln:

Not me personally, no. But I do not "watch" weather forecasts so much anymore, I'm usually involved with briefings and/or looking at data myself.

But again, this won't be about how I perceive the information provided by media/NWS... it will come down to how the public perceives it. Which is why I suggested that we defer to social scientists working in meteorology. Groups like WAS*IS attempt to deal with that overlap area between the physical side of the science and the social side of the science. We may have reached a point where we cannot make major improvements to the science side (in regards to reducing casualties and mitigating property loss), but we may be able to make improvements to how our forecasts are conveyed. I look at models everyday. So do many other operational forecasters and even enthusiasts on blogs. As such, our opinions can be biased on the question of "too many computer models on TV being confusing." Hence why I think Dr. Shephard's concern should be addressed by social scientists, not someone like me.


Scott, based on the links that you sent to me and the nice email that I received could you please tell me the following:

If there is a meteorology social science that is looking to make improvements to the way that model details are explained to the general public, does the same type of "group" (for lack of a better word) exist to explain to the general public the models for climate change?

I havent totally reviewed all the information presented to me the other night but I am sure that I will probably need to step it down and research a bit more.

Thanks again
Quoting Climate175:
From Pcroton's blog, dang.... still a long way out but just wow.


This just makes me wicked cranky.

I hope it shifts a few hundred miles to the North. We need a good 2-3 footer.
most people understand that weather is dynamic and the fluid nature of it allows more then one static out come for a given weather event ..
Quoting 494. Dakster:


Doesn't water flow to the south in California?

Where do you need water for the drinking water reservoirs to be refilled? For example, in South Florida we typically use Lake Okeechobee as our benchmark.


They are in Dire Straits up in the North. We have Pyramid Lake and Castaic Lake which are doing fine.
Good afternoon y'all. In order to cope with the disappointment the last system was where I am, I decided to look ahead and ended up writing a blog about it (with a Texas slant, of course). Lots is subject to change considering the range of the forecast, but it looks like more interesting times may be ahead! As always, feel free to leave your own input, comments or questions.

More Significant Weather in the Medium Range
Quoting 505. VR46L:


Love that tune !

I hope you get to splash in some puddles :)


That was just for you....
Quoting ScottLincoln:

I can only assume that there was a miscommunication between what my comment was intended to convey and the way that you received it. Otherwise I'm really not sure what to say to your comment. It was not a pleasant nor cordial way to express yourself, that's for sure.

Sorry, Scott. Reread your post and see if you detect even the slightest hint of arrogance. If not, I apologize.
Quoting 504. HurrMichaelOrl:


I would never complain about 70s and low humidity.


I never complain when the weather is 70-80F and the humidity and DP are low. Goldilocks weather....
Quoting 499. Drakoen:
I think that most people on this blog, or at least I hope, know that the models are just models and not actual official forecast. Then again, we had an incident today with someone complaining about the snow maps posted here contradicting what they actually got (even though it was stressed for the umpteenth time what the actual interpretation of the map should be but we won't get into that ;) ). Maybe we should have a system set up where we have to have our degrees scanned into an online system before we can look at the models LOL. Aside from that always heed to official (NWS) forecasts before anything on this blog. The Atlanta situation was a complete screw up and they should have prepared for the storm as they were warned and had ample time to prepare.


Drakeon..

I see I have to be direct since you want to talk about me in the third person..yes I am the one that complain about the snow depth maps today on the blog. BUT lets keep it real shall we..the maps legitimacy accuracy wasnt stressed until Monday night on here .all day Monday you and several other bloggers who posted the maps were indicating copious amounts of snow to this board especially along the east coast..now while you were posting those maps at that time, you were not mentioning the fact of the 850mb temps until after the 12z run..now I dont know if you happen to remember to look at those temps and then state at the 18z run along with the 00z run that it wouldnt be all snow, I don't know..but since you want to go there, you did state that I would receive 3 inches of snow after the sleet and rain from the back end of the snow and I'm here to inform you were wrong..thats with your degree and all..

I'm not in meterology school..my career is in another field so I am in the "general" public who ventures these weather boards and meterologists pages for information on the weather. I also know to check my NWS page as well. The snow depth maps were posted by a lot of folks on here along with myself and I know I am not the only one on the east coast who saw those maps and were told to prepare for high amounts of snow. Twist all you may but the maps are irresponsible and need to be redone or communicated to the public and since you have the good judgement and the degree to back up your weather statements, when you do post those maps in the future that you correctly forecast that these maps are not factual and can be misleading;)..

(and thats a sarcastic face at the end of my comment in case you misinterpret my post like you did the snow depth maps)
516. VR46L
Quoting 512. PedleyCA:


That was just for you....


Thanks

;)

Pharrell Williams - Happy

No one could upset me tonight !

11P

RGB

Winter Storm Maximus named.
Quoting 515. ncstorm:


Drakeon..

I see I have to be direct since you want to talk about me in the third person..yes I am the one that complain about the snow depth maps today on the blog. BUT lets keep it real shall we..the maps legitimacy accuracy wasnt stressed until Monday night on here .all day Monday you and several other bloggers who posted the maps were indicating copious amounts of snow to this board especially along the east coast..now while you were posting those maps at that time, you were not mentioning the fact of the 850mb temps until after the 12z run..now I dont know if you happen to remember to look at those temps and then state at the 18z run along with the 00z run that it wouldnt be all snow, I don't know..but since you want to go there, you did state that I would receive 3 inches of snow after the sleet and rain from the back end of the snow and I'm here to inform you were wrong..thats with your degree and all..

I'm not in meterology school..my career is in another field so I am in the "general" public who ventures these weather boards and meterologists pages for information on the weather. I also know to check my NWS page as well. The snow depth maps were posted by a lot of folks on here along with myself and I know I am not the only one on the east coast who saw those maps and were told to prepare for high amounts of snow. Twist all you may but the maps are irresponsible and need to be redone or communicated to the public and since you have the good judgement and the degree to back up your weather statements, when you do post those maps in the future that you correctly forecast that these maps are not factual and can be misleading;)..

(and thats a sarcastic face at the end of my comment in case you misinterpret my post like you did the snow depth maps)


Since you want to go there. Let's go there.


The dynamics of the system changed which caused the interpretation of the snow maps to change. Weather, as whitewabbit mentioned, is not static which is something that many people fail to realize. Early on it appeared that 850mb temps would have been cold enough to support snow after the ice event. In a case where 850s are cold enough snow maps can be utilized, of course with an understanding that most snow maps have a fixed snow ratio, of course. Later on it became apparent that 850s would be too warm near the coast and even the NWS graphic for your area illustrated that. I'm here to inform you that I told you this would be a definite ice and sleet event for you as it became more apparent as we got closer to the event with the potential for backend snows of 1-3in. Like many on this board who are not complaining as much as you are, they got warm nosed for a longer duration so they saw more ice pellets.

I hope you, somehow, stumble upon some common sense and would have known by now with your nearly 8 years of being on this board that weather changes and the models change and that the forecast changes. Do not mistake my prowess in meteorology for your lack of understanding.


Hindsight is 20/20.
As I said yesterday: some people just like to complain. It's easy to sit back and take anonymous potshots at the NWS for not forecasting snowfall amounts with pinpoint accuracy, just as it's easy to do the same with the NHC and their tropical weather predictions. But while all of us here are just talking in an internet forum, professional forecasters know that public safety and taxpayer dollars--along with their own careers and credibility--are at stake, so they have no choice but to be conservative when it's called for. And, yes, it's also easy to constantly complain about TWC naming winter storms or broadcasting certain programs when you're not the one whose neck is on the line if ratings and revenue disappear. I suppose it's human nature to find fault. But ask yourself whether in your own life and work you would be able to handle the incessant criticism you so freely dish out to others.

Know what I mean? ;-)
Quoting 507. txjac:

If there is a meteorology social science that is looking to make improvements to the way that model details are explained to the general public, does the same type of "group" (for lack of a better word) exist to explain to the general public the models for climate change?

Certainly a good question, but unfortunately I am not sure that I have a good answer.

One unfortunate thing with social science efforts in meteorology is that they are under-funded when compared to the "hard sciences." After looking through the WAS*IS website, I learned for the first time tonight that they apparently have been having major budget difficulties, and no seminars or workshops have occurred in over a year. This certainly saddens me, as we've seen numerous service assessments that have hit hard on how our forecasts and warnings are perceived by the public. We may think we provide good information and good forecasts, but that does not always mean that the public will act how we expect them to. Just look at some of the recent tornadoes that have killed dozens or more, even in the context of a general downward trend in tornado fatalities. It's complicated, and I am not sure it gets enough push to keep funded, even if important.

As far as climate science in particular, I'm not sure. There are so many different sites and groups out there, on every level, from the science to the policy to the political advocacy. But as far as a group specifically with the goal of educating the public and understanding how they perceive climate? I am not sure. Another thing to consider is that people really do not "perceive" climate so much as they perceive weather and climate variablity. People are not going to perceive that their average precipitation over a 30yr period has changed, but they certainly will notice when they've had a major drought or a major flood.

Maybe some others that frequent the comment thread on Dr. Rood's blog will have a better answer. I must admit that I spend so much time on the science side of things that I do not know enough about the social science end. That's why in the Atlanta case I suggested we defer to mets with a social sciencce emphasis.
522. yoboi
Quoting 520. Neapolitan:
As I said yesterday: some people just like to complain. It's easy to sit back and take anonymous potshots at the NWS for not forecasting snowfall amounts with pinpoint accuracy, just as it's easy to do the same with the NHC and their tropical weather predictions. But while all of us here are just talking in an internet forum, professional forecasters know that public safety and taxpayer dollars--along with their own careers and credibility--are at stake, so they have no choice but to be conservative when it's called for. And, yes, it's also easy to constantly complain about TWC naming winter storms or broadcasting certain programs when you're not the one whose neck is on the line if ratings and revenue disappear. I suppose it's human nature to find fault. But ask yourself whether in your own life and work you would be able to handle the incessant criticism you so freely dish out to others.

Know what I mean? ;-)




edit:
Quoting 522. yoboi:




I can handle it...think I have proved that time and time again on here....The NWS blew the forecast with Hurricane Sandy and now with Winter Storm Leon....We need congressional hearings now!!!!! We need to get the politics out of weather and look at having the private sector providing weather forecast...enough is enough.....


What is wrong with you.
524. txjac
Quoting 521. ScottLincoln:

Certainly a good question, but unfortunately I am not sure that I have a good answer.

One unfortunate thing with social science efforts in meteorology is that they are under-funded when compared to the "hard sciences." After looking through the WAS*IS website, I learned for the first time tonight that they apparently have been having major budget difficulties, and no seminars or workshops have occurred in over a year. This certainly saddens me, as we've seen numerous service assessments that have hit hard on how our forecasts and warnings are perceived by the public. We may think we provide good information and good forecasts, but that does not always mean that the public will act how we expect them to. Just look at some of the recent tornadoes that have killed dozens or more, even in the context of a general downward trend in tornado fatalities. It's complicated, and I am not sure it gets enough push to keep funded, even if important.

As far as climate science in particular, I'm not sure. There are so many different sites and groups out there, on every level, from the science to the policy to the political advocacy. But as far as a group specifically with the goal of educating the public and understanding how they perceive climate? I am not sure. Another thing to consider is that people really do not "perceive" climate so much as they perceive weather and climate variablity. People are not going to perceive that their average precipitation over a 30yr period has changed, but they certainly will notice when they've had a major drought or a major flood.

Maybe some others that frequent the comment thread on Dr. Rood's blog will have a better answer. I must admit that I spend so much time on the science side of things that I do not know enough about the social science end. That's why in the Atlanta case I suggested we defer to mets with a social sciencce emphasis.


As far as your second paragraph goes ...it takes until you reach your 40's to realize or think you realize certain cycles. Take for instance, the snow that has been occurring in Northern Central Ohio is consistent to what I grew up with.

I need to understand more about the time allocated for certain climate change charts and graphs ...

Sometimes it's a good thing getting older ...stepping back and remembering how things used to be ...lol
525. yoboi
Quoting 523. Jedkins01:


What is wrong with you.


edit:
Quoting 522. yoboi:




I can handle it...think I have proved that time and time again on here....The NWS blew the forecast with Hurricane Sandy and now with Winter Storm Leon....We need congressional hearings now!!!!! We need to get the politics out of weather and look at having the private sector providing weather forecast...enough is enough.....


Same rant in another blog..#314..

I tried to help you with that but you blew me off and came here..
I hope you find whatever it is your looking for..
I really do..
Quoting 520. Neapolitan:
As I said yesterday: some people just like to complain. It's easy to sit back and take anonymous potshots at the NWS for not forecasting snowfall amounts with pinpoint accuracy, just as it's easy to do the same with the NHC and their tropical weather predictions. But while all of us here are just talking in an internet forum, professional forecasters know that public safety and taxpayer dollars--along with their own careers and credibility--are at stake, so they have no choice but to be conservative when it's called for. And, yes, it's also easy to constantly complain about TWC naming winter storms or broadcasting certain programs when you're not the one whose neck is on the line if ratings and revenue disappear. I suppose it's human nature to find fault. But ask yourself whether in your own life and work you would be able to handle the incessant criticism you so freely dish out to others.

Know what I mean? ;-)


Nea..I am a parent of several children. Any impending weather situation that involves me having to spend emergency funding for an event that failed to materialize, yes I am going to be a little peeved off. The NWS in my area used the words "Historical Ice Storm" in their discussion for the carolinas.. its easy for weather enthusiants like yourself to sit behind a computer and complain about people who do find fault with the forecasters but if I may use one of your famous references that if I went to a doctor and was told I had only three months to live, should I not be upset when I find out that the diagnosis was incorrect?

Yes, the snow maps were wrong along with the forecasts from many meterologists and agencies..if you think in your own little Weather Underground imaginary world that people outside this blog are thrilled about what they woke up to this morning instead of what was forecasted then you need to stop sitting behind your computer and face reality..

Grocery stores here in NC were cleaned out..tell your rant to a single mother/father or low income family why they should be thrilled that the money they spent for this storm was still necessary..

Yoboi that's false and a slander upon the NWS meteorologists in Atlanta. They forecast the storm accurately and well and issued winter storm warnings for the Atlanta metro area before 4 a.m. when there was plenty of time to act.

You're acting like you did when you posted from the "Zionist Occupied Government" site last summer in Rood's blog.
Quoting 522. yoboi:




I can handle it...think I have proved that time and time again on here....The NWS blew the forecast with Hurricane Sandy and now with Winter Storm Leon....We need congressional hearings now!!!!! We need to get the politics out of weather and look at having the private sector providing weather forecast...enough is enough.....

Source?
Anybody else announce the naming of Maximus before me???
531. yoboi
Quoting 529. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Source?




Link
532. yoboi
Quoting 527. ncstorm:


Nea..I am a parent of several children. Any impending weather situation that involves me having to spend emergency funding for an event that failed to materialize, yes I am going to be a little peeved off. The NWS in my area used the words "Historical Ice Storm" in their discussion for the carolinas.. its easy for weather enthusiants like yourself to sit behind a computer and complain about people who do find fault with the forecasters but if I may use one of your famous references that if I went to a doctor and was told I had only three months to live, should I not be upset when I find out that the diagnosis was incorrect?

Yes, the snow maps were wrong along with the forecasts from many meterologists and agencies..if you think in your own little Weather Underground imaginary world that people outside this blog are thrilled about what they woke up to this morning instead of what was forecasted then you need to stop sitting behind your computer and face reality..

Grocery stores here in NC were cleaned out..tell your rant to a single mother/father or low income family why they should be thrilled that the money they spent for this storm was still necessary..




Very good point...
Quoting 530. Haiyan2013:
Anybody else announce the naming of Maximus before me???


Post # 485..
Taz saw it first..Lol..
Quoting 531. yoboi:




Link

Giving a link to the National Weather Service website in no way validates your claim that they inaccurately forecast Hurricane Sandy and Winter Storm Leon. So I'll ask you again...source?

HINT: a source to the claim I bolded in the previous quote.
Quoting 525. yoboi:


Where in my post did I say anything that was wrong??? The facts speak for themselves.....
How will having congressional hearings help take the politics out of weather? Seems to me it just gives politicians more room to posture.

Private sector providing weather forecasts? They already do, using government data. Are you saying you think the private sector should be funding the satellites and weather buoys and other NWS stuff? You want to turn that all over to TWC, or maybe Rupert Murdock? Really?
Quoting 519. Drakoen:


Since you want to go there. Let's go there.


The dynamics of the system changed which caused the interpretation of the snow maps to change. Weather, as whitewabbit mentioned, is not static which is something that many people fail to realize. Early on it appeared that 850mb temps would have been cold enough to support snow after the ice event. In a case where 850s are cold enough snow maps can be utilized, of course with an understanding that most snow maps have a fixed snow ratio, of course. Later on it became apparent that 850s would be too warm near the coast and even the NWS graphic for your area illustrated that. I'm here to inform you that I told you this would be a definite ice and sleet event for you as it became more apparent as we got closer to the event with the potential for backend snows of 1-3in. Like many on this board who are not complaining as much as you are, they got warm nosed for a longer duration so they saw more ice pellets.

I hope you, somehow, stumble upon some common sense and would have known by now with your nearly 8 years of being on this board that weather changes and the models change and that the forecast changes. Do not mistake my prowess in meteorology for your lack of understanding.


Hindsight is 20/20.


Drakeon..I didnt even get 1 inch of snow with your 1-3 inch foreast..and I only wrote one post about it so I dont know why you think I am complaining about it so much..

Your prowess to my lack of understanding statement is correct but again, let keep it real I'm not the one on here predicting forecasts or telling people what they should expect..

You have a good one and will leave it at that..



Quoting 531. yoboi:




Link


The link goes to NWS Homepage..
Where's the info that NWS "Dropped" the ball on Sandy at?
Quoting 527. ncstorm:
Grocery stores here in NC were cleaned out..tell your rant to a single mother/father or low income family why they should be thrilled that the money they spent for this storm was still necessary..

You do realize that food can be consumed after a winter storm is over, right? Higher spending for food before the storm will be balanced by spending less for food after the storm. There's no net loss.
Quoting 510. PedleyCA:


They are in Dire Straits up in the North. We have Pyramid Lake and Castaic Lake which are doing fine.


Welp I hope they get rain...

I know Oregon and Washington State are also having some issues - or will when the snow pack that isn't there would normally melt.
Quoting 476. GeorgiaStormz:
The future is nice:





Methinks that is relative to where you might actually be on that map ;)
Quoting 527. ncstorm:


Nea..I am a parent of several children. Any impending weather situation that involves me having to spend emergency funding for an event that failed to materialize, yes I am going to be a little peeved off. The NWS in my area used the words "Historical Ice Storm" in their discussion for the carolinas.. its easy for weather enthusiants like yourself to sit behind a computer and complain about people who do find fault with the forecasters but if I may use one of your famous references that if I went to a doctor and was told I had only three months to live, should I not be upset when I find out that the diagnosis was incorrect?

Yes, the snow maps were wrong along with the forecasts from many meterologists and agencies..if you think in your own little Weather Underground imaginary world that people outside this blog are thrilled about what they woke up to this morning instead of what was forecasted then you need to stop sitting behind your computer and face reality..

Grocery stores here in NC were cleaned out..tell your rant to a single mother/father or low income family why they should be thrilled that the money they spent for this storm was still necessary..




?


Seriously, you're better than that. This thinking adopted by some here that "the NWS is government therefore they are corrupt" nonsense is getting a little old.


What has happened in the south with ice and South isn't even remotely close to being the NWS responsibility. They forecasted the event, what more do you want?


NWS does their job very well, I just don't understand where this angry thinking towards them comes from, because it certainly as heck isn't rooted in fact.


Quoting 538. DonnieBwkGA:


You do realize that food can be consumed after a winter storm is over, right? Higher spending before the storm will be balanced by spending less for food after the storm. There's no net loss.


True, but sometimes you only can afford to buy a little at a time, might stretch your budget to buy a large amount.
I can tell you from personal experience from this summer that the National Weather Service appears to be in no way politically motivated. At least in Norman, OK, I have never met a group of people so dedicated to informing and protecting the public as best as humanly possible, and I was there to witness one of the worst disasters they have ever faced.

The weather and climate side of broad organizations like NOAA, NCAR, etc., however, is another story.
Please don't play with the trolls....
On another note I wonder kind of precip this will turn out to be. 32.2 at home. Just north of the circle and plus symbol on the right side of the radar.

Quoting 541. Jedkins01:



?


Seriously, you're better than that. This thinking adopted by some here that "the NWS is government therefore they are corrupt" nonsense is getting a little old.


What has happened in the south with ice and South isn't even remotely close to being the NWS responsibility. They forecasted the event, what more do you want?


NWS does their job very well, I just don't understand where this angry thinking towards them comes from, because it certainly as heck isn't rooted in fact.




They do do their job very well, doesn't mean they aren't protected from criticism or improvement responsibilities.
Quoting 536. ncstorm:


Drakeon..I didnt even get 1 inch of snow with your 1-3 inch foreast..and I only wrote one post about it so I dont know why you think I am complaining about it so much..

Your prowess to my lack of understanding statement is correct but again, let keep it real I'm not the one on here predicting forecasts or telling people what they should expect..

You have a good one and will leave it at that..





Continue to spell my username wrong. Okay.

It is too bad you did not get an inch of snow. Oh well. You've done more than your fair share of complaining and it wasn't just that one post. I'm not going to let anyone on here come here and marginalize meteorologist for their efforts.

You are just mad you did not get snow. Move on. It's okay to do so................................


There are many on here that come here seeking answers and ask questions and I try to help them understand to the best of my ability. If there were not people like me, Scott, 1900hurr, Levi, Blizz, etc. There would be many questions and no answers.
Quoting 544. PedleyCA:
Please don't play with the trolls....
Who is the troll ?
Quoting 541. Jedkins01:



?


Seriously, you're better than that. This thinking adopted by some here that "the NWS is government therefore they are corrupt" nonsense is getting a little old.


What has happened in the south with ice and South isn't even remotely close to being the NWS responsibility. They forecasted the event, what more do you want?


NWS does their job very well, I just don't understand where this angry thinking towards them comes from, because it certainly as heck isn't rooted in fact.




Jed..I am better than that and I never said anything about about the NWS being corrupt..thats unfair and not true and please dont implied as if I did..I'm also not bashing the NWS..my original posts if you look back in the blog was the bad modeling/snow depth maps that led to the forecasts and that information was posted by meterologists for the general public to view..NWS is a great organization and they do a great job. I only stated better modeling was needed to make better forecasts..



Quoting Drakoen:

The dynamics of the system changed which caused the interpretation of the snow maps to change. Weather, as whitewabbit mentioned, is not static which is something that many people fail to realize. Early on it appeared that 850mb temps would have been cold enough to support snow after the ice event. In a case where 850s are cold enough snow maps can be utilized, of course with an understanding that most snow maps have a fixed snow ratio, of course. Later on it became apparent that 850s would be too warm near the coast and even the NWS graphic for your area illustrated that. I'm here to inform you that I told you this would be a definite ice and sleet event for you as it became more apparent as we got closer to the event with the potential for backend snows of 1-3in. Like many on this board who are not complaining as much as you are, they got warm nosed for a longer duration so they saw more ice pellets.

.

I'm certainly not shy about criticizing the NWS when they get it wrong, but BMX got SE AL right on the money. The forecast was for a prolonged period of freezing rain followed by a quick inch of snow. We actually got two inches of snow, but that fine a detail is just too hard to predict. The ice was the major problem, and is still a problem tonight. The warnings were sufficient to convince schools to close all day on Tuesday along with many private businesses and government offices. Thus, we avoided many of the problems seen further north. Now, if BMX only did as a good a job with the Birmingham forecast, it would have been a real feather in their cap.
A pattern shift is on the way as the PNA transitions to its negative state. This will shift the northeastern Pacific ridge westward (giving Alaska a break from its record-breaking warmth hopefully), and the central Plains trough will retrograde into the west as a result. While southwestern portions of the country will remain largely dry and warm, northwestern portions of the USA will get much-needed rainfall and cooler temperatures. Us in the Southeast will be influenced by a ridge off the coastline, keeping it largely warm. Passing systems will offer heavy rainfall threats into early-mid February.



Now's probably the best time of any for the Ohio River Valley/Northeast to see at least one snowstorm. In the graphic above, you can see how the mean storm track consists of one through the central Plains and aforementioned locations. Moisture should be quite abundant as the subtropical jet becomes charged. You can thank the developing MJO signal in the West Pacific for that. Cold shouldn't be much of an issue.

the definition of Forecast - to calculate or predict (some future event or condition) usually as a result of study and analysis of available pertinent data; especially : to predict (weather conditions) on the basis of correlated meteorological observations
Dover, DE: 32"
Cumberland, MD: 17"
Toms River, NJ: 37"
Philadelphia, PA: 36"
Atlantic City, NJ: 38"
New York City, NY: 31"
Staten Island, NY: 32"
Middletown, NJ: 34"
Monroe Township, NJ: 34"
Freehold, NJ: 36"
Bethany Beach, DE: 22"
Wilmington, DE: 37"
Boston, MA: 18"
Baltimore, MD: 30"
Washington, DC: 26"
Totals of snow from the Euro model for Feb 9th, if it verifies, dreamland.
Quoting 547. Drakoen:


Continue to spell my username wrong. Okay.

It is too bad you did not get an inch of snow. Oh well. You've done more than your fair share of complaining and it wasn't just that one post. I'm not going to let anyone on here come here and marginalize meteorologist for their efforts.

You are just mad you did not get snow. Move on. It's okay to do so................................


There are many on here that come here seeking answers and ask questions and I try to help them understand to the best of my ability. If there were not people like me, Scott, 1900hurr, Levi, Blizz, etc. There would be many questions and no answers.



I had move on but you felt it right to talk about me in the third person and I felt I had the right to respond to you directly..

and yes, all those people are good at what they do but most of them are kind when answering people's questions..

You have a good one..again..

I know where this is leading so if you would like to continue this discussion, my PM is welcome..



Quoting DonnieBwkGA:
On another note I wonder kind of precip this will turn out to be. 32.2 at home. Just north of the circle and plus symbol on the right side of the radar.


We continued to get freezing rain last night all the way down to 27.6 before the change over finally happened. If there's not enough cold air already in place, you may just get a cold rain. Well, I hope so, because the alternatives aren't pleasant.
Quoting 519. Drakoen:


Since you want to go there. Let's go there.


The dynamics of the system changed which caused the interpretation of the snow maps to change. Weather, as whitewabbit mentioned, is not static which is something that many people fail to realize. Early on it appeared that 850mb temps would have been cold enough to support snow after the ice event. In a case where 850s are cold enough snow maps can be utilized, of course with an understanding that most snow maps have a fixed snow ratio, of course. Later on it became apparent that 850s would be too warm near the coast and even the NWS graphic for your area illustrated that. I'm here to inform you that I told you this would be a definite ice and sleet event for you as it became more apparent as we got closer to the event with the potential for backend snows of 1-3in. Like many on this board who are not complaining as much as you are, they got warm nosed for a longer duration so they saw more ice pellets.

I hope you, somehow, stumble upon some common sense and would have known by now with your nearly 8 years of being on this board that weather changes and the models change and that the forecast changes. Do not mistake my prowess in meteorology for your lack of understanding.


Hindsight is 20/20.




That's the problem, people will treat weather like its a statistic, and treat climate which is statistics like weather.

For those who really are ignorant of such things, there of course is nothing wrong with that. However, naturally, when someone is ignorant of something and asks a question, that should mean that person is trying to learn.


However, there are many that have had the differences between weather, climate, and other meteorology material explained simply numerous times before. Yet instead of learning, they just insist on defending their ignorance which doesn't make sense.

What I don't understand is, for those who do this, they clearly don't actually want to learn, Why then do they keep acting like they want to know but really just are asking a question to argue?

If someone wants to believe things that just aren't scientifically true, that's their business, but why harass people by acting like their is interest to learn when ts really just to argue?

People need to make up there mind and determine if they want to actually learn something or not. If not stop trying to debate these things when there is no debate or sound argument from the start. It just causes strife in the community, and of you are wrong about something, simply apologize and learn. Its something we all need to do more of anyway because we all need to learn and apologize.
A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
STAY TUNED TO THE LATER FORECASTS FOR UPDATES.- NWS Sterling
Quoting 485. Tazmanian:




I saw it 1st
Lol.
Quoting 548. Climate175:
Who is the troll ?


Figure it out, who is causing trouble. It isn't you.... lol
For all who got some time: here's the satellite summary of weather events in 2013:



The Year in Weather Like Never Seen Before
ClimateCentral, published: January 27th, 2014

---------------------------

For all who got less time, here is the same in just one minute and without comments, lol:

2013's weather systems in 60 seconds – video
How exactly does a school bus get "stuck" in 2 inches of snow, does it have a 1 cylinder engine?
Quoting 553. Climate175:
Dover, DE: 32"
Cumberland, MD: 17"
Toms River, NJ: 37"
Philadelphia, PA: 36"
Atlantic City, NJ: 38"
New York City, NY: 31"
Staten Island, NY: 32"
Middletown, NJ: 34"
Monroe Township, NJ: 34"
Freehold, NJ: 36"
Bethany Beach, DE: 22"
Wilmington, DE: 37"
Boston, MA: 18"
Baltimore, MD: 30"
Washington, DC: 26"
Totals of snow from the Euro model for Feb 9th, if it verifies, dreamland.


Not for me, 3 feet of snow
Quoting 551. TropicalAnalystwx13:
A pattern shift is on the way as the PNA transitions to its negative state. This will shift the northeastern Pacific ridge westward (giving Alaska a break from its record-breaking warmth hopefully), and the central Plains trough will retrograde into the west as a result. While southwestern portions of the country will remain largely dry and warm, northwestern portions of the USA will get much-needed rainfall and cooler temperatures. Us in the Southeast will be influenced by a ridge off the coastline, keeping it largely warm. Passing systems will offer heavy rainfall threats into early-mid February.



Now's probably the best time of any for the Ohio River Valley/Northeast to see at least one snowstorm. In the graphic above, you can see how the mean storm track consists of one through the central Plains and aforementioned locations. Moisture should be quite abundant as the subtropical jet becomes charged. You can thank the developing MJO signal in the West Pacific for that. Cold shouldn't be much of an issue.


The airmass in the warm sector of next week's system looks like it might originate from the Caribbean Sea. It's hard to say with what at this point, but I'm thinking someone is going to get slammed.
Quoting 554. ncstorm:



I had move on but you felt it right to talk about me in the third person and I felt I had the right to respond to you directly..

and yes, all those people are good at what they do but most of them are kind when answering people's questions..

You have a good one..again..

I know where this is leading so if you would like to continue this discussion, my PM is welcome..





You were a prime example and you could have shrugged it off, but did not.

I have been very patient with answering your questions and the questions of others. Be grateful.

The road ends here with this "discussion".
Possible Ice Storm Coming ?
Quoting 556. Jedkins01:




. . .they clearly don't actually want to learn, Why then do they keep acting like they want to know but really just are asking a question to argue?

If someone wants to believe things that just aren't scientifically true, that's their business, but why harass people by acting like their is interest to learn when ts really just to argue?



You've already answered your own question, and if you think this is spirited, try teaching biology and geology in certain sections of the world.

Beliefs are difficult to overcome, as they are not necessarily dependent upon factual evidence. And when beliefs are challenged, the response is generally emotional and not not necessarily based on rationale.

Some here believe that anything done by the government is inherently bad, and that "the free market" is the answer for everything.

and they will take each and every moment to make sure that message is trumpeted again and again.
Quoting 563. 1900hurricane:

The airmass in the warm sector of next week's system looks like it might originate from the Caribbean Sea. It's hard to say with what at this point, but I'm thinking someone is going to get slammed.


Now that I've gotten my snow after 3 years, and after the early january surprise squall line, I'm ready for a real severe wx event. Hard to say, but it's not a bad pattern.
Quoting 561. Methurricanes:
How exactly does a school bus get "stuck" in 2 inches of snow, does it have a 1 cylinder engine?


It's the ICE under the snow..... no traction.
Quoting Methurricanes:
How exactly does a school bus get "stuck" in 2 inches of snow, does it have a 1 cylinder engine?

1. Have 1/4 to 1/2" of ice fall on roads that were already at or below freezing

2. Add in this happens in states with less plow and sand trucks than a large county north of the Ohio River.

3. Mix in steep hills and school busses that have never heard of chains.

4. Top off with everyone rushing out of work and school at once, there by adding an entire evening rush hour of traffic at one time. Sprinkle with jackknifed 18 wheelers and cars overturned and blocking the interstate.

There's your recipe. Get it now?
Quoting 551. TropicalAnalystwx13:
A pattern shift is on the way as the PNA transitions to its negative state. This will shift the northeastern Pacific ridge westward (giving Alaska a break from its record-breaking warmth hopefully), and the central Plains trough will retrograde into the west as a result. While southwestern portions of the country will remain largely dry and warm, northwestern portions of the USA will get much-needed rainfall and cooler temperatures. Us in the Southeast will be influenced by a ridge off the coastline, keeping it largely warm. Passing systems will offer heavy rainfall threats into early-mid February.



Now's probably the best time of any for the Ohio River Valley/Northeast to see at least one snowstorm. In the graphic above, you can see how the mean storm track consists of one through the central Plains and aforementioned locations. Moisture should be quite abundant as the subtropical jet becomes charged. You can thank the developing MJO signal in the West Pacific for that. Cold shouldn't be much of an issue.



Certainly a step in the right direction if it comes to fruition.
Quoting 569. sar2401:

1. Have 1/4 to 1/2" of ice fall on roads that were already at or below freezing

2. Add in this happens in states with less plow and sand trucks than a large county north of the Ohio River.

3. Mix in steep hills and school busses that have never heard of chains.

4. Top off with everyone rushing out of work and school at once, there by adding an entire evening rush hour of traffic at one time. Sprinkle with jackknifed 18 wheelers and cars overturned and blocking the interstate.

There's your recipe. Get it now?
no icing in the City of Atlanta.
Quoting 538. DonnieBwkGA:

You do realize that food can be consumed after a winter storm is over, right? Higher spending for food before the storm will be balanced by spending less for food after the storm. There's no net loss.


Monies thats taken away from bills to pay for food not needed, how will that will be replaced? but lets eat our excess food in the dark as the lights or water have been turned off..the world is different than what some of yall think on this blog..

there are many people who live paycheck to paycheck in case you didn't realize..I knew once the "struggle of financial insecurity" and I can relate with many who are still going through it

and to state before I leave I never bashed the NWS..

and Drak..(abbreviated since I'm not able to spell your name correctly on the internet) I will take a lesson from James Spann about humility and admit when I am wrong and I shouldn't have called you out about your forecast..

Good night all..



Quoting 571. Methurricanes:
no icing in the City of Atlanta.

Sure there was. When snow falls and lands on the highways, it melts because the surface temperature of the road is often above-freezing (because of the persistent traffic atop it). The snow becomes slush or pure water which then cools and freezes as the air temperature in Atlanta struggled to reach 20F.
Quoting 574. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Sure there was. When snow falls and lands on the highways, it melts because the surface temperature of the road is often above-freezing (because of the persistent traffic atop it). The snow becomes slush or pure water which then cools and freezes as the air temperature in Atlanta struggled to reach 20F.
I am well aware, but that does not cause a sheet of ice, like freezing rain, it causes icy shoulders on the road.
Quoting 575. Methurricanes:
I am well aware, but that does not cause a sheet of ice, like freezing rain, it causes icy shoulders on the road.

It does and it did when snow falls for several hours.
Quoting Methurricanes:
no icing in the City of Atlanta.

Do you live in Atlanta or are you just reading things on the internet?
Quoting 567. GeorgiaStormz:


Now that I've gotten my snow after 3 years, and after the early january surprise squall line, I'm ready for a real severe wx event. Hard to say, but it's not a bad pattern.

Yep, not a ton is clear yet, but it could certainly happen! Next weeks's system certainly looks like it might be a multifaceted and (from a forecasting perspective) very fun one.
Quoting 475. ScottLincoln:

Perhaps Dr. Shephard's comment/concern is one best left to social scientists to research, rather than those of us on a blog. As someone who deals with weather and hydro models daily, it is hard for me to say what confuses (or doesn't confuse) the public. I would imagine that it is a similar story for weather enthusiasts on a weather blog.
I was thinking that his point supports his main idea, which is that there is still a lot of work to be done to improve the COMMUNICATION of information to the general public.

I also don't think the majority of bloggers here can be described as "general public users". The problems the real general public might have are less likely to impact us.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #14
TROPICAL LOW 07U
11:03 AM EST January 30 2014
================================================

At 10:00 AM EST, a Tropical Low (990 hPa) located at 17.5S 148.5E or 265 km northeast of Townsville and 325 km north of Proserpine has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving west southwest at 8 knots towards the coast.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24 HRS

The tropical low is expected to move in a general southwest direction and develop before crossing the Queensland coast between Lucinda and Proserpine on Friday morning.

The low and a strong ridge of high pressure further south are combining to generate GALES at times along much of the east coast between Cardwell and St Lawrence. Winds are expected to increase further between Lucinda and St Lawrence, and particularly about the Central Coast and Whitsundays district, during today with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h possible.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop about coastal and adjacent inland areas of the North Tropical Coast and Tablelands, Herbert and Lower Burdekin and the Central Coast and Whitsundays districts during today.

Coastal residents between Lucinda and St Lawrence, including Townsville are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide, particularly on the high tide today and on Friday. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

A storm tide is expected between Cardwell and Lucinda, particularly on the high tide on Thursday and Friday. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbors.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS 18.7S 148.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 20.2S 146.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS 21.5S 142.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 22.9S 138.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================

The system is continuing to transition into a more classical tropical cyclone structure, with convecting banding continuing to develop on the western and southern flanks. Surface observations and scatterometry show gales in the northwest monsoonal flow to the north and in the SE flow to the south. Convection has developed on the southwest flank near the center during the past three hours with curvature increasing at -0.55 wrap resulting in Dvorak analysis of 2.5.

Vertical wind shear is low with strong outflow to the south associated with a jet from an upper level trough situated across the central Coral Sea. With gales evident in different sectors, forecasting cyclone intensity is somewhat problematic as models generally persist with a broad system through to landfall. Being such a broad system means that rapid intensification is not likely even though models are generally consistent in developing a more symmetric and vertically stacked system prior to landfall.

Enhanced low to mid-level northerly flow to the east of the system associated with the monsoon and a ridge building in the southern Coral sea should allow the system to maintain a general southwest track over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Persistent strong to gale force southeasterly trade winds are causing a positive anomaly of around 0.5 meters on top of the predicted tides along parts of the Queensland east coast between around Cooktown to St Lawrence. This positive anomaly along with the potential increase as the system approaches land will lead to tides exceeding the Highest Astronomical Tide of the year along these parts of the coast on Thursday and Friday particularly on the high tide.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
======================================
A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from Cardwell to St Lawrence
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02
9:00 AM JST January 30 2014
=====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Caroline Islands

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 8.4N 139.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS 9.5N 132.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Caroline Islands
Quoting 546. VAbeachhurricanes:


They do do their job very well, doesn't mean they aren't protected from criticism or improvement responsibilities.
Fair criticism.

I think NWS is trying to work harder to solve one real problem they do have, which is communicating their message effectively to the public in emergency situations. They seem to respond fairly well to comments and suggestions from the public, from what I've seen.

Blaming the NWS for what government officials or private company managers do with their forecast is not IMO fair criticism. That's like blaming a 12th grade English teacher because a HS senior doesn't recognise the letters of the alphabet [because the student is blind].
What was the Temp in Miami-Dade today....
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
9:00 AM FST January 30 2014
=================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 11F (1000 hPa) located at 23.3S 178.9E is reported as moving east southeast at 12 knots. Position poor based on multispectral infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Organization is poor. Deep convection detached from low level circulation center. System lies east of an upper trough in a high sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA.

Most global models have picked up the system and move it southeastward with some intensification.
Quoting 585. CybrTeddy:


sadly this is true .. this winter here in the mid-west is what I remember as a child .. now everyone thinks its way to cold !! its just how winters use to be back in the .. ah well lets just say back when ..
Quoting 585. CybrTeddy:
This.... THIS is why I absolutely freaking LOVE xkcd... lol
If the heat keeps up, my grandkids are going to be asking me about what it was like to live in an area they used to call Florida, before it went under the sea.
How hot you get today?
Quoting 549. ncstorm:


Jed..I am better than that and I never said anything about about the NWS being corrupt..thats unfair and not true and please dont implied as if I did..I'm also not bashing the NWS..my original posts if you look back in the blog was the bad modeling/snow depth maps that led to the forecasts and that information was posted by meterologists for the general public to view..NWS is a great organization and they do a great job. I only stated better modeling was needed to make better forecasts..






Alright well sorry if I misinterpreted your comment, I thought you were doing so indirectly. I just am a little upset over this issue as other bloggers are blaming the NWS along with a lot of people on facebook.

Quoting 589. PedleyCA:
How hot you get today?


we were warmer then Atlanta at 31 degrees here in central Illinois ..
Thanks for the xkcd, Ted... I'm posting that at my workplace 2morrow..
In regards to the NWS, I think the saying goes, "get it right and everyone will forget, screw up once and everyone will remember."
Quoting PedleyCA:
How hot you get today?


32 F
Quoting 594. Thunderfan:


32 F


Where are you again?
Quoting PedleyCA:


Where are you again?


Augusta, GA - where no one was in a traffic jam despite 2 inches of snow.
Fair

19°F

-7°C

Humidity92%
Wind SpeedCalm
Barometer30.36 in (1028.5 mb)
Dewpoint17°F (-8°C)
Visibility10.00 mi

Last Update on 29 Jan 7:53 pm CST

Current conditions at

Crestview, Sikes Airport (KCEW)

Lat: 30.79°N Lon: 86.52°W Elev: 190ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather


geeze
Quoting 588. Dakster:
If the heat keeps up, my grandkids are going to be asking me about what it was like to live in an area they used to call Florida, before it went under the sea.


Where did you go??
Quoting 564. Drakoen:


You were a prime example and you could have shrugged it off, but did not.

I have been very patient with answering your questions and the questions of others. Be grateful.

The road ends here with this "discussion".
did you sleep yet
I just went for a nice long walk. Something about the cold (especially wet cold) is just so invigorating to me, I don't know why. I heard a transformer blow at one point, but that must have been random, as there is nothing frozen here whatsoever.
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 9:00 PM EST Wednesday 29 January 2014
Condition:Cloudy
Pressure:30.2 inches
Tendency:rising
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:12.2°F
Dewpoint:2.5°F
Humidity:65%
Wind:SW 17 mph
Wind Chill: -5

Quoting 586. whitewabit:


sadly this is true .. this winter here in the mid-west is what I remember as a child .. now everyone thinks its way to cold !! its just how winters use to be back in the .. ah well lets just say back when ..


K, I'm a believer in the climate changing and not against AGW beliefs, but just because it has been "warm" in between does not mean it's due to global warming. We have cycles and pattern changes like the PDO, AMO, EPO, WPO, etc., etc. etc. that majorly dictate our sensible weather. Some of these cycles last decades.

C'mon, WU. If you're going to throw science around with all of your pro-AGW arguments, use science in this way too. Thanks.
603. beell
Posted on January 11, 2014

With crucial public safety and severe weather preparedness programming at risk of being dropped by DIRECTV, campaign asks consumers to speak out

ATLANTA, GA Today The Weather Channel launched a nationwide campaign to alert DIRECTV customers that they are at risk of losing access to its critical weather programming, and asking them to contact Congress about this public safety issue. The Weather Channel and DIRECTV are involved in negotiations to renew The Weather Channel's carriage agreement, but to date an agreement has not been reached. If an agreement is not reached by Tuesday, January 14 at 12:01 a.m. ET, DIRECTV viewers will lose access to the 24/7/365 national and hyperlocal weather information that The Weather Channel provides to consumers and communities across the country.

For DIRECTV to take us off their lineup would be deeply irresponsible to its customers who not only count on The Weather Channel on a day-to-day basis, but depend on us before, during and after severe weather events. As the most trusted source of weather news and information in America, The Weather Channel is there when it matters most. If we are not available to DIRECTV's 20 million viewers, they will miss the accurate and life-saving information we have been providing for more than 30 years, said David Kenny, chairman and CEO of The Weather Company, parent company of The Weather Channel. We have offered the industry's best rate for our programming and are committed to reaching an agreement.
Quoting 597. Jedkins01:
Fair

19°F

-7°C

Humidity92%
Wind SpeedCalm
Barometer30.36 in (1028.5 mb)
Dewpoint17°F (-8°C)
Visibility10.00 mi

Last Update on 29 Jan 7:53 pm CST

Current conditions at

Crestview, Sikes Airport (KCEW)

Lat: 30.79°N Lon: 86.52°W Elev: 190ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather


geeze


Already 19F, wow. There is a reason why Crestview is often called the icebox of FL. I drove through the city one time, and it looked very temperate. More like Central Georgia and Alabama.
Quoting 590. Jedkins01:



Alright well sorry if I misinterpreted your comment, I thought you were doing so indirectly. I just am a little upset over this issue as other bloggers are blaming the NWS along with a lot of people on facebook.



Would people be upset with the NWS here in the south if no snow was forecasted and they got 3"? Personally, I dont.
Quoting 602. MississippiWx:


K, I'm a believer in the climate changing and not against AGW beliefs, but just because it has been "warm" in between does not mean it's due to global warming. We have cycles and pattern changes like the PDO, AMO, EPO, WPO, etc., etc. etc. that majorly dictate our sensible weather. Some of these cycles last decades.

C'mon, WU. If you're going to throw science around with all of your pro-AGW arguments, use science in this way too. Thanks.


I was referring to a personal experience I have seen in my life time .. never said anything about a pro-AGW argument ..
Quoting 598. PedleyCA:


Where did you go??


I am still here. but may be chased out by flood waters in my lifetime.
This next winter storm that is being predicted for the south by some models isn't including the gulf coast on them runs are they? This ice is a pure mess
Quoting 589. PedleyCA:
How hot you get today?


82F to answer that question. Hot, humid muggy. This is by my own thermometer, I don't know what the official high was.
Got to 77.2 here. Downhill from here. Winter arrives tomorrow.
Quoting 606. whitewabit:


I was referring to a personal experience I have seen in my life time .. never said anything about a pro-AGW argument ..


You said, "Sadly, this is true." Sorry for assuming you believed in the whole caption.
Quoting 610. PedleyCA:
How hot you get today in Miami?


82F. Hot enough.
Quoting 610. PedleyCA:
How hot you get today in Miami?
Judging by Thunder/Heat game tonight, I'll say it got pretty hot in Miami... hot with anger, frustration, and embarrassment lol.
Quoting 613. Bluestorm5:
Judging by Thunder/Heat game tonight, I'll say it got pretty hot in Miami... hot with anger, frustration, and embarrassment lol.


SO bad even the Miami Herald didn't post that score on the homepage like they normally do.
Quoting 551. TropicalAnalystwx13:
A pattern shift is on the way as the PNA transitions to its negative state. This will shift the northeastern Pacific ridge westward (giving Alaska a break from its record-breaking warmth hopefully), and the central Plains trough will retrograde into the west as a result. While southwestern portions of the country will remain largely dry and warm, northwestern portions of the USA will get much-needed rainfall and cooler temperatures. Us in the Southeast will be influenced by a ridge off the coastline, keeping it largely warm. Passing systems will offer heavy rainfall threats into early-mid February.



Now's probably the best time of any for the Ohio River Valley/Northeast to see at least one snowstorm. In the graphic above, you can see how the mean storm track consists of one through the central Plains and aforementioned locations. Moisture should be quite abundant as the subtropical jet becomes charged. You can thank the developing MJO signal in the West Pacific for that. Cold shouldn't be much of an issue.



Good! So long as the pattern shift helps to stop the endless monster Atlantic troughs and storms rolling over the UK, then we might enjoy a reasonable end to the winter. Snowless winters at low levels aren't too rare here, but I can't recall a winter until this year that has lacked both snow and any spells of brilliant cold, sunny weather under a high... those are both perfect winter conditions to me. The constant zonal rain/wind/hill snow pattern since November makes the short days rather more miserable than usual. Especially when the Deep South gets more snow for the season than us squinting for daylight at 56N!
Quoting 602. MississippiWx:


We have cycles and pattern changes like the PDO, AMO, EPO, WPO, etc., etc. etc. that majorly dictate our sensible weather. Some of these cycles last decades.

C'mon, WU. If you're going to throw science around with all of your pro-AGW arguments, use science in this way too. Thanks.

So-called "cycles" or "oscillations" cannot create nor destroy heat energy. They also cannot cause an increase in heat energy in all parts of the climate system at the same time. Although they cause apparent warmer and cool periods over portions of the globe (which sometimes can show up in global temperature records), that's not the same as a change in the climate.

Natural climate variability has most certainly been taken into account by scientists, and continues to be studied, I assure you.
A friend from Atlanta told me the municipality didn't spread salt to the roads in anticipation of the snowy/icy conditions.
She complains about the situation was handled , despite the early warnings from the NOAA.
Quoting 611. MississippiWx:


You said, "Sadly, this is true." Sorry for assuming you believed in the whole caption.


yes I do .. I believe some people believe that .. but no one was throwing science around .. its a cartoon !!
620. beell
Interesting comment at about the 1:30-1:50 mark.

Sounds like a lot of post ice stress in here tonight...
Quoting 616. ScottLincoln:

So-called "cycles" or "oscillations" cannot create nor destroy heat energy. They also cannot cause an increase in heat energy in all parts of the climate system at the same time. Although they cause apparent warmer and cool periods over portions of the globe (which sometimes can show up in global temperature records), that's not the same as a change in the climate.

Natural climate variability has most certainly been taken into account by scientists, and continues to be studied, I assure you.



And what does this have to do with anything I just posted? The subject at hand is St. Louis's days below zero. I said this is cannot be proven to be directly related to global warming, but that cycles/oscillations can and do cause such things.
Quoting 617. maxcrc:
A friend from Atlanta told me the municipality didn't spread salt to the roads in anticipation of the snowy/icy conditions.
She complains about the situation was handled , despite the early warnings from the NOAA.


I;m gonna ask a stupid question, but since I don't know the answer it shouldn't be that bad.

Does Atlanta even have road salt to put down?

That new brine they use in the NE is awesome at keeping the roads clear and LOVES to turn your cars to rust buckets too.
Quoting 623. Dakster:


I;m gonna ask a stupid question, but since I don't know the answer it shouldn't be that bad.

Does Atlanta even have road salt to put down?

That new brine they use in the NE is awesome at keeping the roads clear and LOVES to turn your cars to rust buckets too.


I read some where yesterday that they had around 60 trucks, and think it said they only had sand to spread but they never said how many of those trucks were capable to do that ..
Quoting 618. whitewabit:


yes I do .. I believe some people believe that .. but no one was throwing science around .. its a cartoon !!


And the way you stated your post made it seem like you believed it. My fault.
Quoting 616. ScottLincoln:

So-called "cycles" or "oscillations" cannot create nor destroy heat energy. They also cannot cause an increase in heat energy in all parts of the climate system at the same time. Although they cause apparent warmer and cool periods over portions of the globe (which sometimes can show up in global temperature records), that's not the same as a change in the climate.

Natural climate variability has most certainly been taken into account by scientists, and continues to be studied, I assure you.


And while energy is (roughly) conserved in the Earth system on human timescales, the atmosphere is only one part of the climate system, and thus can fluctuate greatly while energy is exchanged with parts of the system we don't observe well (e.g. deep ocean).

Also, an example of a natural cycle which does change the total heat energy in the climate system is any kind of solar cycle, since the sun is what maintains energy balance for the Earth system.
Quoting 624. whitewabit:


I read some where yesterday that they had around 60 trucks, and think it said they only had sand to spread but they never said how many of those trucks were capable to do that ..


It was 40 trucks and sand, from what I "heard". But sand isn't salt and doesn't melt ice. Some areas use sand because they get too cold for salt. Salt doesn't work well at a certain temp. I don't remember it, but it is in the below zero F range. KOTG may be able help out as Canada sands a lot of their roads for that reason.
Quoting 623. Dakster:


I;m gonna ask a stupid question, but since I don't know the answer it shouldn't be that bad.

Does Atlanta even have road salt to put down?

That new brine they use in the NE is awesome at keeping the roads clear and LOVES to turn your cars to rust buckets too.


they have some bridges that spray a brine out on the road from a tank mounted near them .. computer controlled by temp I think .. it seems to work well on the one near me ..
We plan to go with the wunderblogger's forecast on wundergroud.com for the next Weather event,

..yes.

Next question ?

Quoting 626. Levi32:


And while energy is (roughly) conserved in the Earth system on human timescales, the atmosphere is only one part of the climate system, and thus can fluctuate greatly while energy is exchanged with parts of the system we don't observe well (e.g. deep ocean).

Also, an example of a natural cycle which does change the total heat energy in the climate system is any kind of solar cycle, since the sun is what maintains energy balance for the Earth system.



The Sun has not had a significant effect on the warming as per studies beaucoup.

The Latest solar cycle has Under performed and with no net cooling observed, period.


Like the past ones observed since 78'.

From NOAA


Energy from the Sun Has Not Increased


Global surface temperature (top, blue) and the Sun's energy received at the top of Earth's atmosphere (red, bottom). Solar energy has been measured by satellites since 1978.


The amount of solar energy received at the top of our atmosphere has followed its natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs, but with no net increase. Over the same period, global temperature has risen markedly. This indicates that it is extremely unlikely that solar influence has been a significant driver of global temperature change over several decades.
Quoting 628. whitewabit:


they have some bridges that spray a brine out on the road from a tank mounted near them .. computer controlled by temp I think .. it seems to work well on the one near me ..


In Atlanta or Illinois?
Just went to feed my outside Cats and went back inside to get them some water and when I went back out here is a fat Raccoon waddling down the top of the fence. I threw the water on it and it bailed off into the neighbors yard. I know they like cat food because my brother has them at his place and they come up and beg for food. The neighbor on the other side of me got pictures of a couple of them one night on the fence on the other side of the house.
Quoting 632. PedleyCA:
Just went to feed my outside Cats and went back inside to get them some water and when I went back out here is a fat Raccoon waddling down the top of the fence. I threw the water on it and it bailed off into the neighbors yard. I know they like cat food because my brother has them at his place and they come up and beg for food. The neighbor on the other side of me got pictures of a couple of them one night on the fence on the other side of the house.


Time to go coon hunting.
Quoting 630. Patrap:



The Sun has not had a significant effect on the warming as per studies beaucoup.

The Latest solar cycle has Under performed and with no net cooling observed, period.


Like the past ones observed since 78'.

From NOAA


Energy from the Sun Has Not Increased


Global surface temperature (top, blue) and the Sun's energy received at the top of Earth's atmosphere (red, bottom). Solar energy has been measured by satellites since 1978.


The amount of solar energy received at the top of our atmosphere has followed its natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs, but with no net increase. Over the same period, global temperature has risen markedly. This indicates that it is extremely unlikely that solar influence has been a significant driver of global temperature change over several decades.


Yeah, I wasn't talking about global warming - I was adding to a specific comment by Scott.

Quoting 620. beell:
Interesting comment at about the 1:30-1:50 mark.



I think it's premature for Jim to suggest that even the NWS gets its first hint of future weather events from TWC. Again, I was at an NWS office this summer, and they were always looking ahead. The difference is that while TWC may vocalize the distant future first, the NWS is slower to speak about uncertain future events to the public. But believe me, they look at the 240-hour GFS and ECMWF as much as any of us.
Quoting 631. Dakster:


In Atlanta or Illinois?


Illinois .. don't think Atlanta has anything like that ..
You know...here in southeast TX...I have a feeling that the last two winter storms were only paving the way for a third severe winter storm. February is our coldest month...i wonder what will happen.
Quoting 633. Dakster:


Time to go coon hunting.


That would be NO. They frown on firing a weapon inside City Limits.
Besides I am out of ammo and or powder..... different guns.
Quoting 630. Patrap:



The Sun has not had a significant effect on the warming as per studies beaucoup.

The Latest solar cycle has Under performed and with no net cooling observed, period.


Like the past ones observed since 78'.

From NOAA


Energy from the Sun Has Not Increased


Global surface temperature (top, blue) and the Sun's energy received at the top of Earth's atmosphere (red, bottom). Solar energy has been measured by satellites since 1978.


The amount of solar energy received at the top of our atmosphere has followed its natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs, but with no net increase. Over the same period, global temperature has risen markedly. This indicates that it is extremely unlikely that solar influence has been a significant driver of global temperature change over several decades.


Yes, we have all seen you post that graph 10000 times.
639. txjac
Quoting 632. PedleyCA:
Just went to feed my outside Cats and went back inside to get them some water and when I went back out here is a fat Raccoon waddling down the top of the fence. I threw the water on it and it bailed off into the neighbors yard. I know they like cat food because my brother has them at his place and they come up and beg for food. The neighbor on the other side of me got pictures of a couple of them one night on the fence on the other side of the house.


They are hungry and cold and are seeking out easy food. We are pushing in on their hunting grounds.
I get my first hints/looks from the NWS, on any event locally.

Not WU, not TWC fer sure.


If one takes a lil time, esp near a event,it dosen't take long or too much brain matter to follow the discussions.

They beat Model worship, denial, Drama, and coolness of ego anyday.
Quoting 626. Levi32:


And while energy is (roughly) conserved in the Earth system on human timescales, the atmosphere is only one part of the climate system, and thus can fluctuate greatly while energy is exchanged with parts of the system we don't observe well (e.g. deep ocean).

...and the atmosphere is actually the smallest of those parts. The cyrosphere and oceans gain far more heat for the same increase in temperature.
Quoting 626. Levi32:
Also, an example of a natural cycle which does change the total heat energy in the climate system is any kind of solar cycle, since the sun is what maintains energy balance for the Earth system.

It's one of the things that maintains that balance. Of course the closer to home equivalent is the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

One of these forcings is causing a net drop in the energy received at the earth's surface. Another is causing a net gain. The natural "oscillations" and "cycles" are along for the ride.
Quoting maxcrc:
A friend from Atlanta told me the municipality didn't spread salt to the roads in anticipation of the snowy/icy conditions.
She complains about the situation was handled , despite the early warnings from the NOAA.

No municipality, to my knowledge, puts down salt or calcium chloride before a storm. The material is light and will easily be blown off the roadway by traffic. In addition, there are environmental restrictions on how much of either of these chemicals can be applied, so they are only used once there's sufficent snow on the pavement surface to trap the granules.
Quoting 639. txjac:


They are hungry and cold and are seeking out easy food. We are pushing in on their hunting grounds.


Plenty of open dumpsters to dive in around here.
Quoting 638. VAbeachhurricanes:


Yes, we have all seen you post that graph 10000 times.


Your welcome, and thanx.

It's not mine by the way, its from NOAA.



You know, da Scienc'ey folks
Quoting 635. whitewabit:


Illinois .. don't think Atlanta has anything like that ..


I was gonna say about Atlanta...

Quoting 637. PedleyCA:


That would be NO. They frown on firing a weapon inside City Limits.
Besides I am out of ammo and or powder..... different guns.


Wimpy if you need a gun to go coon hunting. I prefer a knife in my teeth as I stalk them. (just kidding)

However, I had huskies that would eat them. They also climbed trees and ate birds and squirrels.
Quoting 642. sar2401:

No municipality, to my knowledge, puts down salt or calcium chloride before a storm. The material is light and will easily be blown off the roadway by traffic. In addition, there are environmental restrictions on how much of either of these chemicals can be applied, so they are only used once there's sufficent snow on the pavement surface to trap the granules.


The northern states use a liquid brine now, it stops the snow from sticking to the road....

I know from first hand experience. It can be and is put down beforehand. It, too, has a point where it doesn't work as far as cold is concerned. IIRC, -30F or more.
647. beell
@Levi/634
I think it's premature for Jim to suggest that even the NWS gets its first hint of future weather events from TWC.

You are most gracious, Levi!

FWIW, I like Jim!
648. skook


(gif from gizmodo)

Link



A storm filled timelapse with amazing shots of the night sky, to watch the full video which i recommend, visit Huelux
Okay, we're in the 50s here in ECFL again tomorrow and Friday and then 60s and 70s by Saturday and Sunday. Good enough for me!
Quoting 641. ScottLincoln:

It's one of the things that maintains that balance. Of course the closer to home equivalent is the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

One of these forcings is causing a net drop in the energy received at the earth's surface. Another is causing a net gain. The natural "oscillations" and "cycles" are along for the ride.


Sure. My point is that if you consider the atmosphere by itself, which is where humans live, it is possible for these natural oscillations/cycles to cause a net energy loss or gain (in the atmosphere). Of course, changes in greenhouse gases can do the same.
Quoting 642. sar2401:

No municipality, to my knowledge, puts down salt or calcium chloride before a storm. The material is light and will easily be blown off the roadway by traffic. In addition, there are environmental restrictions on how much of either of these chemicals can be applied, so they are only used once there's sufficent snow on the pavement surface to trap the granules.


in central Illinois .. as soon as it starts to snow a salt/sand mix is applied to bridges and hills if a brine is not used before hand .. once snow starts accumulating salt/sanding is stopped and only applied at intersections after being plowed .. the rest is just plowed ..
Quoting Dakster:


The northern states use a liquid brine now, it stops the snow from sticking to the road....

I know from first hand experience. It can be and is put down beforehand. It, too, has a point where it doesn't work as far as cold is concerned. IIRC, -30F or more.

Dak, liquid brine can be applied before the snow on asphalt surfaces as long as the snow starts within an hour or so of application. All the studies suggest it's much less effective on concrete roadways but some cities still use it as a pre-treatment. Cities using brine in excessive amounts is what prompted regulations by the EPA regarding total quantities used per mile, especially near waterways.
Quoting whitewabit:


in central Illinois .. as soon as it starts to snow a salt/sand mix is applied to bridges and hills if a brine is not used before hand .. once snow starts accumulating salt/sanding is stopped and only applied at intersections after being plowed .. the rest is just plowed ..

Indeed. Salt and brine can't melt snow fast enough when there is more than about one inch of snow on the roadway surface and the rate of snowfall is more than one inch per hour. Plows need to remove the snow before any of the road treatment chemicals can be effective. One of the issues with snow and ice in the South is that there essentially no snow plows. Sand is used on grades and bridge but otherwise traffic clears the snow. Since so many roads were officially closed today, there wasn't enough traffic to clear things at all. Anyone that had to drive today faced much worse road conditions than normal after a snowstorm here.
Good Night Peeps - Stay Warm - Stay Safe - Don't play in the ICE....
Quoting 620. beell:
Interesting comment at about the 1:30-1:50 mark.



When severe weather comes for my area, these are the tools I use:

1. NWS Weather Radio
2. Local News Channels
3. This blog (if I have time).

The one thing that I don't pay attention to? TWC. Why? Because they don't offer me anything especially useful. By the time they notice there's a tornado warning, the sirens have been wailing for a minute. They don't get local for most of us, they will say "Nashville is under a tornado warning." Cool beans, but where? If it's Brentwood, peachy, I live 15 miles north of that. If it's Millersville/Goodlettsville, I am in my basement. Local news channels provide that, TWC does not. Never have. Never will by the looks of it.

Anyways, got to do homework, shall be on really late.
656. beell
The decision to pre-treat roads is made 24-48 hours in advance of a storm. If it is around 32 degrees and forecasted to be frozen precipitation, roads are typically pre-treated. Brine, however has to be applied to the road when it is not raining because the rain will dilute the solution and wash it off the road. If an event starts as rain and then freezes, the effectiveness of pre-treating may be lost. Brine can be used to pretreat down to 18 degrees.

NCDOT
Quoting beell:
@Levi/634
I think it's premature for Jim to suggest that even the NWS gets its first hint of future weather events from TWC.

You are most gracious, Levi!

FWIW, I like Jim!

LOL. I don't much care for Cantore but he did an excellent side kick to the groin to a college student running through his live shot yesterday. :-)
Quoting 640. Patrap:
I get my first hints/looks from the NWS, on any event locally.

Not WU, not TWC fer sure.


If one takes a lil time, esp near a event,it dosen't take long or too much brain matter to follow the discussions.

They beat Model worship, denial, Drama, and coolness of ego anyday.
Agreed. Much as I love Wunderground, I always check in w/ Bahamas Met Office for what's the final say.
Quoting 652. sar2401:

Dak, liquid brine can be applied before the snow on asphalt surfaces as long as the snow starts within an hour or so of application. All the studies suggest it's much less effective on concrete roadways but some cities still use it as a pre-treatment. Cities using brine in excessive amounts is what prompted regulations by the EPA regarding total quantities used per mile, especially near waterways.


Gotcha and yes I agree that the amount of chemicals put on a road can be a hazard when they will end up in our drinking water sooner or later. But I also understand that you have to do something to be able to keep the roads open.

I've seen pre-brining in action when a couple of years ago we drove from SFL to CT in the winter. PA was doing the roads in anticipation of a snow event we were luckily outdriving.

I didn't think salt by itseld beforehand would be all that effective.

And of course the Cheese Brine they put on the roads in Wisconsin has got to be interesting. I wonder if the obseity rate increased when they started doing that?
Screams big storm.
Quoting beell:
The decision to pre-treat roads is made 24-48 hours in advance of a storm. If it is around 32 degrees and forecasted to be frozen precipitation, roads are typically pre-treated. Brine, however has to be applied to the road when it is not raining because the rain will dilute the solution and wash it off the road. If an event starts as rain and then freezes, the effectiveness of pre-treating may be lost.
Brine can be used to pretreat down to 18 degrees.


NCDOT

Assuming we had any salt/brine trucks in central/south Alabama or Georgia (which we don't), it would have been fruitless to pre-treat since the storm started as freezing rain. Further north, in Birmingham at least, the elapsed time between the WSW and the first snow was only about 4 hours, not near enough time to organize any kind of road treatment down here, where a storm like we've had occurs once every 20 or so years.
Quoting 660. Climate175:
Screams big storm.



maybe a really really big storm


we shall see
Quoting 661. sar2401:

Assuming we had any salt/brine turck in central/south Alabama or Georgia (which we don't), it would have been fruitless to pre-treat since the storm started as freezing rain. Further north, in Birmingham at least, the elapsed time between the WSW and the first snow was only about 4 hours, not near enough time to organize any kind of road treatment down here, where a storm like we've had occurs once every 20 or so years.


I agree and the last statement is the most important. Are you supposed to buy and maintain a fleet a trucks for a once in a 20 yr event. (or potentially longer than that?) that is a question that maybe the citizens should answer by ballot, since it will be THEIR tax dollars that buy it.
664. beell
Quoting 661. sar2401:

Assuming we had any salt/brine turck in central/south Alabama or Georgia (which we don't), it would have been fruitless to pre-treat since the storm started as freezing rain. Further north, in Birmingham at least, the elapsed time between the WSW and the first snow was only about 4 hours, not near enough time to organize any kind of road treatment down here, where a storm like we've had occurs once every 20 or so years.


I thought the event began with snow that fell on roadways with a surface temp above freezing. Compacted into a slush by vehicle traffic-in tandem with falling temperatures. Leaving an ice base with snow on top.

But I agree, it was too late to "pre-treat".
Quoting 658. BahaHurican:
Agreed. Much as I love Wunderground, I always check in w/ Bahamas Met Office for what's the final say.
Yup, Much as I appreciate the skills of many many of you's on this blog, I feel it would just be foolish to follow the advice of absolute strangers on matters that would affect me or my loved ones. Please don't take this as insult, because I do learn lots on this blog. Bob
Quoting 658. BahaHurican:
Agreed. Much as I love Wunderground, I always check in w/ Bahamas Met Office for what's the final say.


I always check with my local NWS and news stations too. I love coming here to pick apart the forecasts and discuss them though.
00Z GFS HR 69 SFC THETAE /700MB HUM


Quoting Dakster:


Gotcha and yes I agree that the amount of chemicals put on a road can be a hazard when they will end up in our drinking water sooner or later. But I also understand that you have to do something to be able to keep the roads open.

I've seen pre-brining in action when a couple of years ago we drove from SFL to CT in the winter. PA was doing the roads in anticipation of a snow event we were luckily outdriving.

I didn't think salt by itseld beforehand would be all that effective.

And of course the Cheese Brine they put on the roads in Wisconsin has got to be interesting. I wonder if the obseity rate increased when they started doing that?

Cheese brine..hehe.

Places like PA that deal with snowstorms all the time enlist garbage trucks as both plows and spreaders. They are able to organize an impressive amount of resources in a short period of time because they have them and it's standard drill for them. We don't have the resources in the South, and anyone who dealt with a storm this large and intense in the past has already retired. We here in SE AL have yet to see our first DOT sand truck because they are all in Birmingham trying to clear that mess. We had cops and firefighters out speading sand with shovels from the back of pickups this morning. The real key to preventing this kind of thing in the future is EMA's and politicians who are ready to make decisons based, not on odds, but the stake. I don't see that happening anytime soon.
Quoting beell:


I thought the event began with snow that fell on roadways with a surface temp above freezing. Compacted into a slush by vehicle traffic-in tandem with falling temperatures. Leaving an ice base with snow on top.

But I agree, it was too late to "pre-treat".

That was only true in places like Birmingham and Atlanta, where cold air was already in place. From Montgomery south, it was almost 10 hours of freezing rain before it finally changed to snow. If the freezing rain would have continued for maybe two more hours, the second biggest story today would have widespread power outages.
670. beell
Quoting 669. sar2401:

That was only true in places like Birmingham and Atlanta, where cold air was already in place. From Montgomery south, it was almost 10 hours of freezing rain before it finally changed to snow. If the freezing rain would have continued for maybe two more hours, the second biggest story today would have widespread power outages.


Ok, gotcha. The comment was limited to the Atlanta event.
Potential vorticity is calculated on constant pressure surfaces and averaged through the 400%u2013250mb layer. Potential vorticity units (PVU%u2019s) reduce to 10-6%uFFFF K %uFFFF m2 %uFFFF kg-1 %uFFFF s-1 . Potential vorticity maxima are commonly associated with regions of cyclogenesis.




00 GFS HR 174 POTENIAL VORTICITY
00 GFS HR 174 SFC PRESS SIM RAD

SFC THETAE HR 174

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #15
TROPICAL CYCLONE DYLAN, CATEGORY ONE (07U)
1:49 PM EST January 30 2014
================================================

At 1:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Dylan, Category One (987 hPa) located at 17.8S 148.4E or 235 km northeast of Townsville and 290 km north of Proserpine has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 7 knots towards the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Dylan has formed off the north Queensland coast and is expected to continue moving in a general southwesterly direction and gradually intensifying, before crossing the Queensland coast between Lucinda and Proserpine in the early hours of Friday morning.

The cyclone and a strong ridge of high pressure further south are combining to generate GALES at times along much of the east coast between Cardwell and St Lawrence. Winds are expected to increase further between Lucinda and St Lawrence, particularly about the Central Coast and Whitsundays district, during the remainder of today and extending to adjacent inland areas on Friday morning with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h possible.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop about coastal and adjacent inland areas of the Herbert and Lower Burdekin and the Central Coast and Whitsundays districts during today.

Coastal residents between Lucinda and St Lawrence, including Townsville are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide, particularly on the high tide today and on Friday. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

A storm tide is expected between Cardwell and Lucinda, particularly on the high tide on Thursday and Friday. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbors.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
======================================
A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from Cardwell to St Lawrence extending to adjacent inland areas, including Collinsville
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02
12:00 PM JST January 30 2014
=====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Caroline Islands

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 8.5N 138.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS 9.6N 131.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of Mindanao
92W~ Looks like the original low ran off as a new one formed. Now it's waltzed out from under the clouds too. Click pic for loop.


Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.

Enlightened Power: New Eco Warriors Are Really Well Armed

* With Energy, Little Is Black or White. Here Come the Grey Hats.

*** Climate change is 'killing penguin chicks' say researchers

!!! Elusive magnetic 'monopole' seen in quantum system

*** Stem cell 'major discovery' claimed

*** Secrets of flying snakes revealed (with video)

!!! Sea level variations escalating along eastern Gulf of Mexico coast

Large, deep magma chamber discovered below Kilauea volcano: Largely unknown internal plumbing of volcanoes

Paleolithic humans from the north of Spain moved to dwellings with better logistics

*** Neanderthal lineages excavated from modern human genomes

*** First weather map of brown dwarf: Surface of nearest brown dwarf charted

*** Warmer winters may be pushing raptors northward

Active power control of wind turbines can improve power grid reliability

*** Bats bounce back in Europe

!!! EPA, Texas reach deal on clean air plan

*** California bans fishing in drought-stricken streams

Texas Fishing Report

Endangered fish delays raising water level

New Missouri website shows hazardous waste sites

!!! Monarch butterflies drop, migration may disappear

Why Obama's push for climate means trouble ahead for coal (with video)

State of the Union: Is Obama's 'all-of-the-above' energy working? (with video)

* Industry in North Dakota to Cut Flared Natural Gas



*** A Mafia Legacy Taints the Earth in Southern Italy

Obama's failure to mention water crisis disappoints West Virginians

* State of the Union leaves Obama's environmental policy in a haze

************************************************* ************************************************** *******

The following articles are courtesy of astrometeor:

!!! Rising Sea Levels Threatens Solomon Islands

* Map: Publicly Funded Schools That Are Allowed to Teach Creationism

************************************************* ************************************************** *******

The following article is courtesy of wxgeek723:

!!! Biting cold could exterminate a pesky invader in NJ Pinelands
Hello TC Dylan



going to hit just south of Townsville


loop

My Brother lives in Townsville. This will his first TC.
@NWSWilmingtonNC
Today's high temperature in Wilmington was only 28 degrees, the coldest daytime high in nearly 18 years! #ilmwx #ncwx #scwx
Quoting 680. TropicalAnalystwx13:
@NWSWilmingtonNC
Today's high temperature in Wilmington was only 28 degrees, the coldest daytime high in nearly 18 years! #ilmwx #ncwx #scwx


Nice! Had a low of 0.5 degrees F this morning, with a high of 27 in the afternoon.
Quoting 680. TropicalAnalystwx13:
@NWSWilmingtonNC
Today's high temperature in Wilmington was only 28 degrees, the coldest daytime high in nearly 18 years! #ilmwx #ncwx #scwx


Chill out, Cody :)
URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
234 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014

...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON THURSDAY...

.A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS STRONG SOUTH WINDS OF
10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES UP
INTO THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS FALLING INTO THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE IN THE
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH RECENT COLD AND DRY WEATHER...CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP TO GROW AND
SPREAD RAPIDLY.

TNZ501-502-301200-
/O.NEW.KOHX.FW.A.0001.140130T1800Z-140131T0000Z/
HIGHLAND RIM DISTRICT (NORTH)-HIGHLAND RIM DISTRICT (SOUTH)-
234 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GALLATIN TO
SHELBYVILLE...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 501. FIRE WEATHER ZONE 502.

* WIND...SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...10 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

* THUNDERSTORMS...NONE.

THE HIGHEST THREAT AREA IS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST MIDDLE
TENNESSEE...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LINDEN TO
SPRINGFIELD.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$

55
One year ago today:





Time does fly.
Quoting 684. wxgeek723:
One year ago today:





Time does fly.

Largest January tornado outbreak in Tennessee history, 2nd largest tornado outbreak ever in Tennessee, surpassed only by the 4/3-4/74 outbreak.
Quoting 686. nwobilderburg:

wow


Lol definitely contrasts the Euro forecast for 3 feet of snow in the Northeast at that time
Brian, care for chat?
Sure Nathan.
Quoting 680. TropicalAnalystwx13:
@NWSWilmingtonNC
Today's high temperature in Wilmington was only 28 degrees, the coldest daytime high in nearly 18 years! #ilmwx #ncwx #scwx


#nexticeage
Quoting 661. sar2401:

Assuming we had any salt/brine trucks in central/south Alabama or Georgia (which we don't), it would have been fruitless to pre-treat since the storm started as freezing rain. Further north, in Birmingham at least, the elapsed time between the WSW and the first snow was only about 4 hours, not near enough time to organize any kind of road treatment down here, where a storm like we've had occurs once every 20 or so years.


Ga Dot has some brine trucks and Atlanta has 30 plows and 40 spreader trucks that they bought after the 2011 fiasco.
The problem was it hit fast and they couldn't get to the roads for all the vehicles. Had to laugh at the people on TV standing in a wall to wall traffic jam on the freeway saying they hadn't seen a spreader when nothing had moved in hours.
How much snow did you get Mike?
Quoting NorthofAtlanta:


Ga Dot has some brine trucks and Atlanta has 30 plows and 40 spreader trucks that they bought after the 2011 fiasco.
The problem was it hit fast and they couldn't get to the roads for all the vehicles. Had to laugh at the people on TV standing in a wall to wall traffic jam on the freeway saying they hadn't seen a spreader when nothing had moved in hours.

That was really the issue, wasn't it? I can't help but think that with earlier warning or better action by those in charge of the schools (take your pick of who you want to beat up) that tremendous traffic jam could have been avoided. Added to all the moms picking up the kids you had all the businesses releasing employees early. That gridlock was almost inevitable. I didn't realize GA DOT had all that equipment available. Did they do any pretreating at all or were they just too far behind the power curve? I live in Eufaula and the bridge and causeway going from Eufaula to Georgetown had nothing applied at all, at least as of 3:00 pm today. The bridge deck, which is quite a steep grade coming out of Georgetown, was completely covered in snow and ice. If I didn't have good tires and four wheel drive I never would have attempted that bridge.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #16
TROPICAL CYCLONE DYLAN, CATEGORY ONE (07U)
4:57 PM EST January 30 2014
================================================

At 4:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Dylan, Category One (980 hPa) located at 18.1S 148.3E or 205 km northeast of Townsville and 260 km north of Proserpine has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 6 knots towards the coast.

Gale Force Winds
==================
60 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24 HRS

Tropical Cyclone Dylan is expected to continue moving in a general southwesterly direction and further intensify before crossing the Queensland coast between Townsville and Bowen in the early hours of Friday morning.

The cyclone and a strong ridge of high pressure further south are combining to generate GALES at times along much of the east coast between Cardwell and St Lawrence. Winds are expected to increase further between Lucinda and St Lawrence during the remainder of today and extending to adjacent inland areas on Friday morning with DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 150 km/h possible.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop about coastal and adjacent inland areas of the Herbert and Lower Burdekin and the Central Coast and Whitsundays districts during today.

Coastal residents between Lucinda and St Lawrence, including Townsville are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide, particularly on the high tide today and on Friday. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

A storm tide is expected between Cardwell and Lucinda, particularly on the high tide on Thursday and Friday. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbors.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS 19.6S 147.3E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS 20.8S 145.4E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS 22.0S 141.1E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 23.1S 136.4E - 15 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================
The system is continuing to transition from a monsoon depression into a more classical tropical cyclone structure, with convecting banding continuing to develop and tighten on the western and southern flanks. Surface observations and scatterometry show strong gales wrapping considerably around the system. Convection has developed on the southwest flank near the center during the past three hours with curvature increasing at -0.7 wrap resulting in Dvorak analysis of 3.0

Vertical wind shear remains weak with strong outflow to the south associated with a jet from an upper level trough situated across the central Coral Sea. the environment appears conjucive to further intensification up until landfall.

the main steering influence should remain the sub-tropical ridge to the system, and this should maintain a general southwest track over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Persistent strong to gale force southeasterly trade winds are causing a positive anomaly of around 0.5 meters on top of the predicted tides along parts of the Queensland east coast between around Cooktown to St Lawrence. This positive anomaly along with the potential increase as the system approaches land will lead to tides exceeding the Highest Astronomical Tide of the year along these parts of the coast on Thursday and Friday particularly on the high tide.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
======================================

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from Cardwell to St Lawrence extending to adjacent inland areas, including Collinsville.
Quoting 590. Jedkins01:



Alright well sorry if I misinterpreted your comment, I thought you were doing so indirectly. I just am a little upset over this issue as other bloggers are blaming the NWS along with a lot of people on facebook.

In the Atlanta gridlock case, it is clear that it was politicians who dropped the ball, not meteorologists.

As for the weather in this storm not turning out as it was originally predicted, several of us on this blog pointed out right from the beginning that this particular storm was going to be awfully difficult to predict, in terms of precisely where what type of frozen precipitation was going to fall, how much was going where and so on. It was clear even to some of us who are not professional meteorologists but study the weather nonetheless that the dynamics with this event were unusually fluid and unpredictable.

In any case it is clearly better to be safe than sorry. In the sorry example of what happened with the city government of Atlanta and the state government of Georgia, officials gambled on the chance that nothing significant was going to happen in Metro Atlanta so they did not need to expend funds and resources in preparation for that. But they gambled and lost, big time.
Quoting 695. FLWaterFront:
In the Atlanta gridlock case, it is clear that it was politicians who dropped the ball, not meteorologists.

As for the weather in this storm not turning out as it was originally predicted, several of us on this blog pointed out right from the beginning that this particular storm was going to be awfully difficult to predict, in terms of precisely where what type of frozen precipitation was going to fall, how much was going where and so on. It was clear even to some of us who are not professional meteorologists but study the weather nonetheless that the dynamics with this event were unusually fluid and unpredictable.

In any case it is clearly better to be safe than sorry. In the sorry example of what happened with the city government of Atlanta and the state government of Georgia, officials gambled on the chance that nothing significant was going to happen in Metro Atlanta so they did not need to expend funds and resources in preparation for that. But they gambled and lost, big time.
Result?? egg on face. Hopefully no fatalities resulted...
Good Morning folks!..cold and a light rain here......


Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Cardwell and St Lawrence and
adjacent inland areas are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning
Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 17
Issued at 8:08 pm EST on Thursday 30 January 2014


A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from
Cardwell to St Lawrence extending to adjacent inland areas, including
Collinsville..

At 7:00 pm EST Tropical Cyclone Dylan, Category 2 was estimated to be 185
kilometres east northeast of Townsville and 225 kilometres north of Proserpine
and moving south southwest at 12 kilometres per hour towards the coast.


Tropical Cyclone Dylan is expected to continue moving towards the coast
crossing between Townsville and Bowen on Friday morning.

The cyclone and a strong ridge of high pressure further south are combining to
generate GALES at times along much of the east coast between Cardwell and St
Lawrence. Winds are expected to increase further between Lucinda and St
Lawrence overnight and extending to adjacent inland areas later Friday morning.
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 150 kilometres per hour are possible near the centre.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected about coastal and
adjacent inland areas of the Herbert and Lower Burdekin and the Central Coast
and Whitsundays districts.

Coastal residents between Lucinda and St Lawrence, including Townsville are
specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide, particularly on the high tide
on Friday. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the
normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to
the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding
should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be
prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to
do so by the authorities.

A storm tide is expected between Cardwell and Lucinda, particularly on the high
tide on Friday. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore.
People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take
measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help
their neighbours.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for remaining coastal and island
communities from Cooktown to Cardwell and from St Lawrence to Gladstone,
extending inland to the northern Central Highlands and eastern parts of the
Central West districts on Friday.

People between Cardwell and St Lawrence should complete preparations quickly
and be prepared to shelter in a safe place.
- Boats and outside property should be secured [using available daylight
hours/before nightfall].
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on
132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage).

Details of Tropical Cyclone Dylan at 7:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 18.4 degrees South 148.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 12 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 140 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 975 hectoPascals


The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Thursday 30 January.
lets see if this changes in a few days,but here's next wens..
Fort Myers
54 degrees
1.96" of rain over night on my weather station.
Setting a new record low for the winter on my back porch in central VA as I write, 4 degrees. But the wood stove is doing fine and it's quite nice inside.

Breakfast will be onion, sausage, and sweet potato omelet with plenty of coffee. Y'all come on by.
S.W. Fl if we can get through today's rainy weather Spring time is going to kick in.
Quoting 703. Sfloridacat5:
Fort Myers
54 degrees
1.96" of rain over night on my weather station.
Morning, I have 39 and mod. rain this morning. so far .72 in of rain.Zephyrhills fl.
Quoting 704. percylives:
Setting a new record low for the winter on my back porch in central VA as I write, 4 degrees. But the wood stove is doing fine and it's quite nice inside.

Breakfast will be onion, sausage, and sweet potato omelet with plenty of coffee. Y'all come on by.
Hi, Coffee threw the drive threw please. running alittle behind.
Quoting 706. severstorm:
Morning, I have 39 and mod. rain this morning. so far .72 in of rain.Zephyrhills fl.


That's cold
Rain still coming down moderately. Up to 2.01" of rain over night.
Expecting another 1" of rain today.

This is the most rain in months down here. We need it. Help with the fire season which is soon to come.
Tel Aviv Marks Driest January on Record

Rain hits a record low in the Tel Aviv area. Jordan Valley without rainfall for the first time in nearly 60 years

Link

Parts of England see wettest January since records began

Area of England from east Devon to Kent and inland to Midlands has seen twice its average monthly rainfall, with more forecast
Link
Cold this morning! My front yard sensor, which is attached to a tree surrounded by Azaleas 15 feet from the house 3 feet above the ground, reads 20.1F and my backyard sensor located on a mast about 3 feet above the roof of my garage reads 16.7F. 1 mile sw of my location is the runway at Sherman Field. Pensacola NAS Home of the World Famous Blue Angels. Currently reporting 19F. Brrrr...
The ground is still ice covered and yesterdays high was 27F. That's the 2nd time this year our high did not freezing. That has never happened before that I remember. It's also the lowest high I ever rememberer.

Edit front yard down to 19.9F
Back down to 16.5F

nice rain and we need it e cen florida 55f
712. MahFL
Quoting 664. beell:


I thought the event began with snow that fell on roadways with a surface temp above freezing. ..


No, it was freezing rain.
Quoting 711. islander101010:
nice rain and we need it e cen florida 55f
Yes indeed. Most people make the mistake of planting one winter crop. You have to keep planting before you harvest for constant yield, as things grow quickly in the winter. Once the sun takes hold then you know the season is over ,but all you have to do is let one head of lettuce go to seed and you have enough for the next two years.
Quoting 710. PensacolaDoug:
Cold this morning! My front yard sensor, which is attached to a tree surrounded by Azaleas 15 feet from the house 3 feet above the ground, reads 20.1F and my backyard sensor located on a mast about 3 feet above the roof of my garage reads 16.7F. 1 mile sw of my location is the runway at Sherman Field. Pensacola NAS Home of the World Famous Blue Angels. Currently reporting 19F. Brrrr...
The ground is still ice covered and yesterdays high was 27F. That's the 2nd time this year our high did not freezing. That has never happened before that I remember. It's also the lowest high I ever rememberer.

Edit front yard down to 19.9F
Back down to 16.5F

I have the same issue. back yard is always colder than the front
much warmer weather for the superbowl this weekend in new York ciy around 45F
waking up to -6f outside here in Salisbury, MD this morning. Thankfully wind is calm.
heavy rain in Miami,fl!!!
our kale is growing like weeds now yumming e.cen florida
719. VR46L
The storm is now in the central Atlantic will probably be a beautiful image in a day or two ... but with a nasty bite !



2 degrees here in Calhoun..Low was projected to be 10.
A nice soaking rain for East Central Florida in a typical midwinter overrunning scenario, I am enjoying it.
It was 1 degree here....coldest of the year. Was supposed to be 11F
The updated drought maps are out, and the verdict is in: things are getting worse in California, with nearly 1/10th of the state now considered to be in 'exceptional drought'. Just 1.43% of the state is unaffected by drought--though that's small consolation, as that tiny fraction is in the Mojave Desert anyway:

drought

drought
Cold rainy morning in Atlantic Beach, Florida. one of the many beaches of Jacksonville, Fl. Backyard sensor located on my covered back porch, about 5 feet above the ground is reading 39 deg. No ice in the area yet, with the main concern being all of the many bridges here. It seems Jax and the Beaches dodged an icy bullet in the last 2 days. The temperatures will remain in the 40's today and then tonight temps on the rise. So far it has been an interesting winter. Hopefully the rain will be done by this evening, although new rain moving in as we are supposed to warm up to high 70's. Go figure !!!!!
Quoting 723. Neapolitan:
The updated drought maps are out, and the verdict is in: things are getting worse in California, with nearly 1/10th of the state now considered to be in 'exceptional drought'. Just 1.43% of the state is unaffected by drought--though that's small consolation, as that tiny fraction is in the Mojave Desert anyway:

drought

drought

Incredible. Simply Incredible. Things are only going to get worse. Much, much worse. As long as the globe keeps rapidly warming and we keep belching CO2 into the air like we are. This has got to be one of California's worst droughts ever, Jim. I only hope they have some relief.

We have a long way to go.
Quoting 722. GeorgiaStormz:
It was 1 degree here....coldest of the year. Was supposed to be 11F
Looks like that "Global Warming" proof is indeed EVAPORATING! Ah ha ha ha!
44 on the northside of Orlando with 1.06" of rain since yesterday. Melbourne,FL is near 2.50" so far with much more on the way as a strong mid level disturbance pushes toward the west coast of FL tonight.



A dent in the California drought - a good rain yesterday afternoon and evening; woke up to a 4:30am phone call telling teacher wife of an official snow day. 4-1/2 inches so far in the yard.
precip gage in Tahoe City
My earlier report caught the temp still going down and we bottomed this morning at 2 degrees down 4 from the previous low of this winter. This is quite low enough and this Arctic mass can leave anytime.

As I write this at 5 till 9 we're back up to a balmy 8. And for the record I'll take this cold over California's problem any day.

Past few GFS runs support 1900 hurricanes idea that after next weeks possibly stormy episode, the ensuing cold airmass could support more wintery wx





Could support snow but with the shallow arctic air maybe ice? for the Northern gulf coast states.. too far out to tell if it verifies.. good pattern though.

Reminds me of the turnaround from christmas 2010 to jan 2011

Nearby Airports

New Haven | Clear | 18 °F
Chester | Clear | 19 °F
Meriden | Clear | 15 °F

Wrong location?


Nearby Weather Stations

Bishops Orchards-Meadow Ridge | 12.9 °F
Bishops Orchards-LHR | 3.6 °F
Jefferson Park, Madison, CT | 15.3 °F
After a rather boring episode of weather sets in another exciting week lies ahead for D.C.CWG is hinting at multiple snow chances next week even if they aren't measurable.
Quoting 734. washingtonian115:
After a rather boring episode of weather sets in another exciting weeks lies ahead for D.C.CWG is hinting at multiple snow chances next week even if they aren't measurable.


They lowered our possible snowfall amount for early next week from 12-18 inches to 6-12 inches..... however.. The end of next week now has chances for a foot of snow as well.
736. VR46L
Quoting 734. washingtonian115:
After a rather boring episode of weather sets in another exciting weeks lies ahead for D.C.CWG is hinting at multiple snow chances next week even if they aren't measurable.


There is a small chance of severe in the south and Mid west too next week
Quoting 726. Waltanater:
Looks like that "Global Warming" proof is indeed EVAPORATING! Ah ha ha ha!


Quoting 481. Waltanater:
So much for "Global Warming." That "FREEZES" that theory!

Quoting 478. Waltanater:
This "Global Warming" is KILLING us!!!

This May help you Walt..
From NASA..
What's the Difference Between Weather and Climate?



" The difference between weather and climate is a measure of time. Weather is what conditions of the atmosphere are over a short period of time, and climate is how the atmosphere "behaves" over relatively long periods of time."

Quick Google search results..
Quoting 735. Torito:


They lowered our possible snowfall amount for early next week from 12-18 inches to 6-12 inches..... however.. The end of next week now has chances for a foot of snow as well.
Well it's impossible to pin point snow totals this far out.We'll first have to see if any storm materializes before we can do that.
Quoting 736. VR46L:


There is a small chance of severe in the south and Mid west too next week
I'm not really a server weather professional so I'll leave that to the pro's.But server weather is possible in the south and mid-west with a cold front clashing with a warm air mass.That's only one ingredient though to h=get things going.
Lots of snow is supposed to fall from "winter storm maximus" in the next 2 days.

Pink is 18-24 inches, by the way.
ECMWF by end of run

sharp gradient

10" for parts N GA...none south of atlanta





and all the snow washi could ever hope for... This would cripple such a large swath of the US




big snow for dallas starts at reasonable 160-170hrs


not complete fantasy
Quoting 742. GeorgiaStormz:
ECMWF by end of run

sharp gradient

10" for parts N GA...none south of atlanta





and all the snow washi could ever hope for... This would cripple such a large swath of the US






30 inches south of MD. I won't believe it till i see it, but it's something to look out for.
Quoting 742. GeorgiaStormz:
ECMWF by end of run

sharp gradient

10" for parts N GA...none south of atlanta





and all the snow washi could ever hope for... This would cripple such a large swath of the US




Yeesh..Still 10 days away though.If that happens 2013-2014 will be one of the most memorable winters in D.C's/mid-atlantic's history.
Quoting 741. hydrus:


Shows ice for dc...

from their forecast discussion

BUT MODELS HINT THAT A SURFACE WEDGE/CAD SCENARIO MAY
BE IN PLACE WHILE WARMING ENSUES ALOFT AND THAT MEANS THAT
FREEZING PRECIPITATION MAY BE A LEGITIMATE P-TYPE/CONCERN FOR THIS
POTENTIAL EVENT.

Could shutdown dc if they get enough
Quoting 746. GeorgiaStormz:


Shows ice for dc...

from their forecast discussion

BUT MODELS HINT THAT A SURFACE WEDGE/CAD SCENARIO MAY
BE IN PLACE WHILE WARMING ENSUES ALOFT AND THAT MEANS THAT
FREEZING PRECIPITATION MAY BE A LEGITIMATE P-TYPE/CONCERN FOR THIS
POTENTIAL EVENT.

Could shutdown dc if they get enough
Snow I can tolerate.Ice..no.Well I'm off.I'll check in later for the models.
Quoting 742. GeorgiaStormz:
ECMWF by end of run

sharp gradient

10" for parts N GA...none south of atlanta





and all the snow washi could ever hope for... This would cripple such a large swath of the US




big snow for dallas starts at reasonable 160-170hrs


not complete fantasy


This has no chance right? I mean not even the 93' Super storm covered that much area with more than 6". I have never seen anything remotely even close to this type of scenario in my lifetime. Even if this is a combination of 2 systems it would be impressive in scale.
superbowl weather in the 40's and ice storm by next week!
Quoting 746. GeorgiaStormz:


Shows ice for dc...

from their forecast discussion

BUT MODELS HINT THAT A SURFACE WEDGE/CAD SCENARIO MAY
BE IN PLACE WHILE WARMING ENSUES ALOFT AND THAT MEANS THAT
FREEZING PRECIPITATION MAY BE A LEGITIMATE P-TYPE/CONCERN FOR THIS
POTENTIAL EVENT.

Could shutdown dc if they get enough
Good morning GS. It is going to be an interesting February weather wise.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #18
TROPICAL CYCLONE DYLAN, CATEGORY TWO (07U)
11:08 PM EST January 30 2014
================================================

At 11:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Dylan, Category Two (975 hPa) located at 18.9S 148.2E or 125 km north of Bowen and 155 km east northeast of Townsville has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 7 knots towards the coast.

Storm Force Winds
===================
40 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
30 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
20 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
20 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
==================
40 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
220 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
80 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0D1.5/24 HRS

Tropical Cyclone Dylan is expected to cross the coast between Ayr and Bowen on Friday morning around sunrise.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are possible between Cardwell and St Lawrence Friday morning extending to adjacent inland areas later Friday morning. DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 150 km/h are possible in coastal areas near the center.

Winds are expected to ease by the afternoon.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected about coastal and adjacent inland areas of the Herbert and Lower Burdekin and the Central Coast and Whitsundays districts.

Coastal residents between Ayr and St Lawrence are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide, particularly on the high tide on Friday morning. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

A storm tide is expected between Cardwell and Ayr, particularly on the high tide on Friday morning. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbors.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS 20.4S 147.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 21.7S 145.3E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS 23.1S 141.1E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================

Tropical Cyclone Dylan has developed during the day - the max wind estimate of 55 knots based on Flinders Reef observations between 0700-1000 UTC north the of center. There is evidence of some easterly shear with convection largely constrained to the western flank limiting the extent of curvature. Dvorak estimates remain lower at -3.0 based on curved band of 0.6 wrap.

Landfall is expected within 12 hours and the system should weaken quickly thereafter although a convergent band to the south of the center may cause severe gusts and heavy rainfall that could extend well inland during the day. A separate severe weather warning has been issued to that effect.

Astronomical tides are close to the highest yearly tides, thus increasing the vulnerability to any storm surge. Based on the current track the cyclone should cross a few hours before the expected high tide but nevertheless inundation remains an ongoing concern as the southeasterly flow is already causing a positive anomaly of around 0.5 meters.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
======================================

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from Cardwell to St Lawrence extending to adjacent inland areas, including Collinsville.
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BASYANG
5:00 PM PhST January 30 2014
===================================

The Tropical Depression east of Mindanao is about to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility and is named "BASYANG"

At 4:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Basyang (1004 hPa) located at 8.6N 136.4E or 1,108 km east of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 15 knots.

Signal Warnings
=====================

Signal Warnings #1

Visayas region
---------------
1. Southern Leyte

Mindanao region
----------------
1. Surigao del Norte
2. Siargao Island
3. Surigao del Sur
4. Dinagat Province
5. Misamis Oriental

Additional Information
========================
Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-15 mm per hour (moderate to heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the tropical depression.

Expected to make landfall over Surigao Provinces late Friday evening or early Saturday morning.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the eastern seaboards of central and southern Luzon and of Visayas due to Tropical Depression "Basyang" and the Northeast Monsoon.

The public and local DRRMCs concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Quoting 742. GeorgiaStormz:
ECMWF by end of run

sharp gradient

10" for parts N GA...none south of atlanta





and all the snow washi could ever hope for... This would cripple such a large swath of the US




big snow for dallas starts at reasonable 160-170hrs


not complete fantasy


Is the euro model or those images available for free anywhere? I used to be able to run the 10 day animated simulation from this site but haven't seen it for the last year. Is it pay only now? Any help appreciated for a weather novice. Thanks
Quoting 753. grappler71:


Is the euro model or those images available for free anywhere? I used to be able to run the 10 day animated simulation from this site but haven't seen it for the last year. Is it pay only now? Any help appreciated for a weather novice. Thanks


Yeah, ECMWF precipitation maps are really hard to find now for free, most places require payments to view them now.
755. beell
Quoting 712. MahFL:


No, it was freezing rain.


I would have to admit to a certain amount of ignorance to the weather in Atlanta on Tuesday morning-as my attention was elsewhere.

Three sites in the Atlanta area reporting snow only. That is not to say there was not any freezing rain.

Date / Time / Winds / Visibility / Weather

Atlanta, DeKalb-Peachtree Airport
28 12:53 NW 6 0.75 Light Snow Fog/Mist
28 11:53 NW 7 10.00 Overcast

Atlanta, Fulton County Airport-Brown Field
28 11:53 NW 8 2.50 Light Snow
28 10:53 N 6 10.00 Overcast

Hartsfield-Jackson/Atlanta International Airport
28 10:52 NW 10 10.00 Light Snow
28 09:52 NW 13 10.00 Overcast

NWS Local Obs History



Quoting 742. GeorgiaStormz:
ECMWF by end of run

sharp gradient

10" for parts N GA...none south of atlanta





and all the snow washi could ever hope for... This would cripple such a large swath of the US




big snow for dallas starts at reasonable 160-170hrs


not complete fantasy



LOL I think the ECW. Is broken
Umm... This 327MPH wind gust is a glitch, right?...

Link
Many in the U.S will like this to arrive.


Quoting 693. sar2401:

That was really the issue, wasn't it? I can't help but think that with earlier warning or better action by those in charge of the schools (take your pick of who you want to beat up) that tremendous traffic jam could have been avoided. Added to all the moms picking up the kids you had all the businesses releasing employees early. That gridlock was almost inevitable. I didn't realize GA DOT had all that equipment available. Did they do any pretreating at all or were they just too far behind the power curve? I live in Eufaula and the bridge and causeway going from Eufaula to Georgetown had nothing applied at all, at least as of 3:00 pm today. The bridge deck, which is quite a steep grade coming out of Georgetown, was completely covered in snow and ice. If I didn't have good tires and four wheel drive I never would have attempted that bridge.



They had resources, but most to all of them were allocated south of the city.
All they did was pretreat some bridges in and around atlanta, and if they never return to them, that doesnt do much. North of atlanta nearly nothing at all was done

Quoting 695. FLWaterFront:
In the Atlanta gridlock case, it is clear that it was politicians who dropped the ball, not meteorologists.

As for the weather in this storm not turning out as it was originally predicted, several of us on this blog pointed out right from the beginning that this particular storm was going to be awfully difficult to predict, in terms of precisely where what type of frozen precipitation was going to fall, how much was going where and so on. It was clear even to some of us who are not professional meteorologists but study the weather nonetheless that the dynamics with this event were unusually fluid and unpredictable.

In any case it is clearly better to be safe than sorry. In the sorry example of what happened with the city government of Atlanta and the state government of Georgia, officials gambled on the chance that nothing significant was going to happen in Metro Atlanta so they did not need to expend funds and resources in preparation for that. But they gambled and lost, big time.


I don't know if it was a gamble in that sense.. many on here thought the GFS was crazy and the consensus even among mets was south of atlanta with the NAM/ECMWF..Still could have prepared more.
Quoting 755. beell:


I would have to admit to a certain amount of ignorance to the weather in Atlanta on Tuesday morning-as my attention was elsewhere.

Three sites in the Atlanta area reporting snow only. That is not to say there was not any freezing rain.

Date / Time / Winds / Visibility / Weather

Atlanta, DeKalb-Peachtree Airport
28 12:53 NW 6 0.75 Light Snow Fog/Mist
28 11:53 NW 7 10.00 Overcast

Atlanta, Fulton County Airport-Brown Field
28 11:53 NW 8 2.50 Light Snow
28 10:53 N 6 10.00 Overcast

Hartsfield-Jackson/Atlanta International Airport
28 10:52 NW 10 10.00 Light Snow
28 09:52 NW 13 10.00 Overcast

NWS Local Obs History





There was never any freezing rain..

The 0C 850mb line for exmple, was well south of atlanta.

It snowed, turned to slush as people squashed it/it melted on roads, and to ice as it froze. wherever tire tracks had passed it was solid ice up to 1/2" thick or more.
Quoting 748. ILwthrfan:


This is has no chance right? I mean not even the 93' Super storm covered that much area with more than 6". I have never seen anything remotely even close to this type of scenario in my lifetime. Even if this is a combination of 2 systems it would impressive in scale.


I doubt it verifies.. compared to ensembles it's a bit much
It also is the result is two systems. (maybe 3)
Either way, it will be fun to watch.
762. beell
Quoting 760. GeorgiaStormz:


There was never any freezing rain..

The 0C 850mb line for exmple, was well south of atlanta.

It snowed, turned to slush as people squashed it/it melted on roads, and to ice as it froze. wherever tire tracks had passed it was solid ice up to 1/2" thick or more.


That was my understanding, GS. 2m air temps were below freezing and falling for all three locations at the onset of reported snow.
763. VR46L
Quoting 757. Torito:
Umm... This 327MPH wind gust is a glitch, right?...

Link


Umm I think we would have heard about it ,if it was not an error ....
One year ago today.




also somebody had some fun with the atlanta traffic map

Quoting 759. GeorgiaStormz:
I don't know if it was a gamble in that sense.. many on here thought the GFS was crazy and the consensus even among mets was south of atlanta with the NAM/ECMWF..Still could have prepared more.


I think the local was really de-emphasizing it. I talked to someone just north of Atlanta that morning. I'd looked up his forecast and said "wow, it looks like you guys are going to get hit."

He said "nah, going to be to our south."

I referred him to his local page here and read it out loud to him. "A couple of inches of snow and an inch of sleet/ice".

"We'll see," he said.
'
He ended up one of the thousands whose drive home took hours rather than minutes.

So locally they apparently weren't disseminating NWS info or taking it seriously.
Quoting 763. VR46L:


Umm I think we would have heard about it ,if it was not an error ....


USGS reported a 22 mag earthquake that went unnoticed for too long a period of time.
Quoting 757. Torito:
Umm... This 327MPH wind gust is a glitch, right?...

Link


It has been removed from that link, unless I am missied it. The only field that says wind/gust is blank.
768. VR46L
Quoting 766. Dakster:


USGS reported a 22 mag earthquake that went unnoticed for too long a period of time.


LMAO !!!

I love typos ,that just are so obviously typos ...
T/C 11P (Dylan)..





SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 003
WTPS31 PGTW 300300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 17.6S 148.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 148.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 18.6S 147.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 19.8S 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 21.0S 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 148.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 301500Z AND 310300Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN
Strong upper ridge building towards FL. With this in play it is going to be hard to get rid of rain chances across C & S FL as it is keeping a band of deep moisture overhead.

Orlando

Quoting 768. VR46L:


LMAO !!!

I love typos ,that just are so obviously typos ...


Me too, it was like, well, is anything left it the area?

Is the Earth splitting in two?
300 evacuated due to fire in Norway
SMAVAERET, Norway, Jan. 30 (UPI) -- More than 300 people were evacuated from the island of Froya in Norway due to a brushfire sweeping through the villages on the island, officials said.
The fire broke out Wednesday, destroying about 90 buildings in Hasvag and Smavaeret, forcing the evacuation of 33 residents from those villages, TheLocal.no reported.


Read more: Link



Firefighters face 'a new reality'
January 30, 2014
UPDATED: As firefighters struggled to gain control over the second major brushfire this week, experts were warning that Norway faces a new seasonal reality regarding fire danger. Emergency crews simply didn't expect they'd need to fight such fires in the middle of winter, but a changing climate with unpredictable weather is now sparking calls for new levels of preparedness.
"Just a month ago, no one would have said there was a threat of brushfires in Trøndelagime at this of year," Dagfinn Kalheim, director of the Norwegian fire prevention association


Link
774. VR46L
Quoting 772. Dakster:


Me too, it was like, well, is anything left it the area?

Is the Earth splitting in two?


Yeah that really would be doomsday !
Quoting 773. ColoradoBob1:
300 evacuated due to fire in Norway
SMAVAERET, Norway, Jan. 30 (UPI) -- More than 300 people were evacuated from the island of Froya in Norway due to a brushfire sweeping through the villages on the island, officials said.
The fire broke out Wednesday, destroying about 90 buildings in Hasvag and Smavaeret, forcing the evacuation of 33 residents from those villages, TheLocal.no reported.


Read more: Link



Firefighters face 'a new reality'
January 30, 2014
UPDATED: As firefighters struggled to gain control over the second major brushfire this week, experts were warning that Norway faces a new seasonal reality regarding fire danger. Emergency crews simply didn't expect they'd need to fight such fires in the middle of winter, but a changing climate with unpredictable weather is now sparking calls for new levels of preparedness.
"Just a month ago, no one would have said there was a threat of brushfires in Trøndelagime at this of year," Dagfinn Kalheim, director of the Norwegian fire prevention association


Link


The villages in question =
Link
Cyclone Dylan bears down on North Queensland as locals brace for destructive winds
Friday January 31, 2014 - 01:34 EDT



"Residents in North Queensland are gearing up for destructive winds as Cyclone Dylan is expected to make landfall early this morning."

Winter 2013-2014 has entered the top 15 for number of days below zero prior to February in the Twin Cities.


Records date back to the 1870s.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
If another winter storm hits ATL next week, the result would be the same except that mayor would blame it on all the people that tried to go home when he ORDERED them to stagger going home according to his master plan.

There is so much wrong with this...