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Intense Cold Blast Hits Midwest; Significant Winter Storm Expected in the Deep South

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:06 PM GMT on January 27, 2014

The intense winter of 2013 - 2014 over the Eastern U.S. adds another remarkable cold blast to its resume this week, as a new outbreak of Arctic air surges southwards from Canada. Temperatures of -24°F and colder were common in northern Minnesota on Monday morning, and strong winds were bringing dangerous below-zero wind chills to 23 states. The core of the cold air will thrust southeastward on Monday and Tuesday, and more than half of the contiguous U.S. will experience temperatures 15°F - 30°F below normal. This cold blast will be just as widespread as the cold wave three weeks ago, but about 5° warmer. In Chicago, where the winter of 2013 - 2014 ranked as the 13th coldest winter on record for the period December 1 - January 25, the temperature fell below zero at 6 am CST Monday morning, and may remain below zero until late morning on Wednesday, a period of up to 50 consecutive hours. This would rank near 4th place for the longest stretch of below-zero temperatures on record. The 36 consecutive hours Chicago was below zero three weeks ago was not quite a top-ten below zero streak.


Figure 1. Blizzard conditions in Woodbury, MN on Sunday, January 26, 2014. Image credit: Wunderphotographer 26mileman.

Nasty ice storm for the Deep South
An area of low pressure will track along the Gulf Coast over the next two days, moving east-northeast to a position off the coast of South Carolina on Tuesday night. With cold air firmly entrenched over the deep south, a significant winter storm is expected from Southern Louisiana to Eastern North Carolina. The anti-fun starts in New Orleans Monday night, when rain will change over to freezing rain. Ice accumulations of 1/4" - 1/2" are possible along a swath from Southeast Louisiana through Southern Mississippi, Southern Alabama, the Northwest Florida Panhandle, Southern Georgia, Southern South Carolina, and Eastern North Carolina though Wednesday morning. Snows of 2 - 4" are possible just to the north of the freezing rain swath. This storm has the potential to cause significant damage to trees and power lines, resulting in widespread power outages. Travel will be very dangerous in the areas affected by the heaviest freezing rain and snow.

Worst weather for Monday: Munising, Michigan
My nomination for worst weather of the day goes to Munising, Michigan, on the shores of Lake Superior. Munising had a temperature of -2°F at 8am EST, and the winds off of Lake Superior were 17 mph gusting to 22 mph, creating a wind chill of -23°. Heavy lake effect snow was creating whiteout conditions, and a blizzard warning is in effect for much of the Michigan shore of Lake Superior, for snowfall amounts of up to six inches. The snows would be much greater, but Lake Superior is mostly frozen over. Ice cover on the Great Lakes was at 48% on January 22, which was well above the 1980 - 2010 average of 18%. This ranks as the highest ice coverage since the winter of 1993 - 1994, and fifth highest since the winter of 1980 - 1981.

Links
Snowstorms in the Southeast and Deep South of the United States: An Historical Perspective, 2011 blog post by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt.

Report: Lake Ice Grows Safer To Venture Out On With Each Beer Consumed: news item from The Onion.

Jeff Masters
Minnesota Blizzard
Minnesota Blizzard
Blizzard conditions in Henning Mn
Crystal 'Nails'
Crystal 'Nails'
Itty bitty frozen tacks... a coating of fragile frosty shards on everything this morning, giving the glaze of ice a bit of crunchy texture.
Endless Winter
Endless Winter
I know it's much worse in other parts of the country, but I sure am looking forward to spring!

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 1805. Dakster:
Thanks Keep.

Can anyone show me how to embed a youtube into the blog. I copy the embed code, url and nothing seems to work?


Use the "Old embed" code and bypass the image button, post embed code directly in comment box, post.
thanks doc be back got to give it a read
Thanks Dr. Masters.

It is certainly going to be a very nasty couple of days for many of us.
Thanks KOTG and Patrap. I will try it. I didn't have that option in Chrome. Need to use IE for that?
Buckle up in Da South - this could be a wild ride.

At least most of the people I know in Michigan know how to deal with the cold and snow. I hope for the best for the too.
Thanks Doc. Its going to get stormy too.
Quoting 4. Dakster:
Thanks KOTG and Patrap. I will try it. I didn't have that option in Chrome. Need to use IE for that?


No, go to the video you want, and below the video, click "share". Select the embed tab, and then check the "use old embed code" checkbox. Paste that code into the message.

Here's a cute cat video


Thanks Doc !
Think you are having a bad day. Take a look at the only road in and out of Valdez after three Avalanches. I don't see this being cleared all that soon.

Quoting 7. MsZola:


No, go to the video you want, and below the video, click "share". Select the embed tab, and then check the "use old embed code" checkbox. Paste that code into the message.

Here's a cute cat video




Funny how I can't see your video or mine. I got the use old embed code part figured out. Obviously I am not a big youtube person...

On Edit: I see they finally came thru. Thanks everyone.
Thanks for the new blog, Dr. Masters.

On a related note, my nephew rescued a red tailed hawk that had its wings coated in ice after the ice storm in Houston area last week. They took it back to the animal shelter and thawed it out with a hair dryer. He said it was pretty feisty, but calmed down some once he thawed. Back in the wild now.
All Coming together now

Quoting 13. VR46L:
All Coming together now



Rain/snow headed my way in N. California. It's about time!
16. jpsb
Quoting 9. Dakster:
Think you are having a bad day. Take a look at the only road in and out of Valdez after three Avalanches. I don't see this being cleared all that soon.

Wow, that looks very bad.
GFS/NAM trending down with snowfall amounts for N GA... GFS gives me plenty snow but little moisture.
62.9F currently here, so to get to freezing tonight, that's going to be at least a 30F fall in temp.
in myrtle beach. we are concerned.
This could be nasty as it crosses the U.S.
That took awhile. Site seems slow this morning. I was on earlier on my laptop and it was fine.
Thanks for the new Post Dr.Masters.

54.9F/ 12.72C here (8:29PST)
Atlanta's discussion seems to sum up the situation well. We still need a few more hours to see how this is going to come toghther.
...MODELS ARE NO CLOSER WITH THE LATEST RUN IN HONING
IN ON A SOLUTION WITH THE EURO AND UKMET IN ONE CAMP WHILE THE GFS...NAM12 AND SREF REMAIN IN ANOTHER AND THERE EVEN SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS WITHIN EACH CAMP AS WELL. EURO DID TREND SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE GFS AND NAM12 WHICH GIVES CAUSE FOR CONCERN THAT NORTH GEORGIA WOULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED BUT WPC REMAINS COMMITTED TO THE DRIER 12Z SUITES WITH MOST ACCUMULATION ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER. HARD TO ARGUE EITHER WAY WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT BASED ON SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SO FAR THIS WINTER...WOULD PERSONALLY FAVOR
PRECIP SPREADING FURTHER NORTH THAN MODELS PROJECT WHICH WOULD IN THIS CASE BRING WINTER HAZARDS NORTHWARD AS WELL.

WHERE FORECAST COULD GO WRONG...THERE ARE VERY FEW ANALOGS FOR THIS SYSTEM WHICH MATCH UP WELL MEANING THIS IS NOT A PATTERN WE TYPICALLY SEE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WRT THE DRY AIR COMING IN WHICH IS LOWER THAN IS TYPICAL WITH THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR NORTHERN SEGMENT OF PRECIP SHIELD TO PRODUCE MUCH LESS PRECIP AND HENCE ACCUMULATIONS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE LEFT WATCH IN PLACE FOR NOW WHILE EXPANDING NORTHWARD AND ROW OF COUNTIES. WILL AWAIT 06Z RUN TO SEE IF UPGRADE TO WARNING IS JUSTIFIED.
Middle TN Monday.. Cold, windy and getting colder. Moisture staying south so our first precip forecast for Friday pm. Nice day yesterday, temps up into the mid 50's and sunny. How about those Grammy's??
Thanks Dr. While the prospect of snow for parts of the South seem exciting to some, getting in your car with the kids to drive around to see it and/or take pictures is a bad proposition. We are not used to driving in these conditions along the Gulf Coast and you do not want to endanger yourself, or your family, by driving around on roads, highways, and over bridges with icy patches in the road.

Do not drive in these conditions unless you have to and take your pictures in the yard or walking around in the neighborhood............... :)
Quoting 24. weathermanwannabe:
Do not drive in these conditions unless you have to and take your pictures in the yard or walking around in the neighborhood............... :)
Good advice...nobody drives on ice...lol
Last time we had ice patches on the road in Tallahassee about 5-6 years ago, I remember sliding around in the parking lot right after dropping my Daughter off at her Elementary School; thank God no car was in front of me when I drove around the curve and the car swung around (only going about 10 mph).

Black Ice is a very dangerous thing.
California: the fog has returned and the rain is coming...yay
And this could be real bad.
Quoting 28. hydrus:
And this could be real bad.




Thats no Moon'...
Quoting 21. PedleyCA:
That took awhile. Site seems slow this morning. I was on earlier on my laptop and it was fine.
Thanks for the new Post Dr.Masters.

54.9F/ 12.72C here (8:29PST)


Hot here Ped. Supposed to break 80F today. And the cold front isn't going to reach us this time - or at the forecasts have been changed to reflect it.

Anyone have the latest Euro snowfall map for Louisiana?

THanks in advance
Quoting 24. weathermanwannabe:
Thanks Dr. While the prospect of snow for parts of the South seem exciting to some, getting in your car with the kids to drive around to see it and/or take pictures is a bad proposition. We are not used to driving in these conditions along the Gulf Coast and you do not want to endanger yourself, or your family, by driving around on roads, highways, and over bridges with icy patches in the road.

Do not drive in these conditions unless you have to and take your pictures in the yard or walking around in the neighborhood............... :)


And even then - seen quite a few slip and fall. Breaking a hip is a big deal and fatal in come cases. (I have two elderly relatives that broke hips and never recovered). I doubt anyone in the south has crampons unless they came from a northern area where those are used.
Quoting 9. Dakster:
Think you are having a bad day. Take a look at the only road in and out of Valdez after three Avalanches. I don't see this being cleared all that soon.


Good thing they have a ferry boat to get food supplies in. They are now totally cut off, but it makes a good story.
Quoting 34. PedleyCA:


Good thing they have a ferry boat to get food supplies in. They are now totally cut off, but it makes a good story.


Yep -but that can get expensive too. And it usually takes longer to get something by barge then shipped by truck. And of course plane is ridiculously expensive.

I bet it will make people think twice when driving the road after it opens.
Interesting comment from the am Tally NWS discussion of the impacts of icing; this will be a big issue for our friends further to the North and those on the Southern Eastern Seaboard.

The disconcerting part of the forecast is the potential for significant ice accumulations. Much of
our forecast area could get between 0.05 and 0.25", with isolated higher amounts. In a part of the country with very little infrastructure to handle extreme cold and freezing/frozen precipitation, this could have as much of an impact as a tropicalcyclone...perhaps more. Downed power lines & large tree limbs would undoubtedly result in widespread power outages and impassable roads. Those who lack properly winterized shelter and true cold weather clothing risk hypothermia.


Also a good idea, to buy some pipe insulation from Loews-Home Deport (if they have any left) this evening and to cover any exposed pipes including lines going to your air-conditioning units if you will be running central heat during the event.
Second Winter Storm Advisory for the north shore of Lake Pontchartrain in 5 days. Anybody got an ETA on that warming stuff?
Quoting 26. weathermanwannabe:
Last time we had ice patches on the road in Tallahassee about 5-6 years ago, I remember sliding around in the parking lot right after dropping my Daughter off at her Elementary School; thank God no car was in front of me when I drove around the curve and the car swung around (only going about 10 mph).

Black Ice is a very dangerous thing.


Quoting 31. Dakster:


Hot here Ped. Supposed to break 80F today. And the cold front isn't going to reach us this time - or at the forecasts have been changed to reflect it.





Not even gonna be close today....
Quoting 35. hydrus:


Wow. The models have trended northwest a lot that past day. It looks like a big ice storm for Central/southern GA and Carolinas. Question now is will the cities - Atlanta, Greenville, Charlotte - get significant weather. At this point it looks like these cities are north enough where if any precipitation were to fall it would be in the form of snow. It seems as though this is the type of system where one could have a sharp cutoff point with precip. I.E., lots of snow in one location but a few miles north maybe a dusting. Just my observation.
Quoting 33. Dakster:


And even then - seen quite a few slip and fall. Breaking a hip is a big deal and fatal in come cases. (I have two elderly relatives that broke hips and never recovered). I doubt anyone in the south has crampons unless they came from a northern area where those are used.


They are called golf shoes....
All Coming together now



wow vr.....looks like rain for california and most importantly....snow
Something about that post just seems....wrong.Anyway I'm hoping the trend north continues.
Quoting 42. NyFan1:


Wow. The models have trended northwest a lot that past day. It looks like a big ice storm for Central/southern GA and Carolinas. Question now is will the cities - Atlanta, Greenville, Charlotte - get significant weather. At this point it looks like these cities are north enough where if any precipitation were to fall it would be in the form of snow. It seems as though this is the type of system where one could have a sharp cutoff point with precip. I.E., lots of snow in one location but a few miles north maybe a dusting. Just my observation.


Here in Charlotte the model trends have me hopeful... I'm not counting on getting anything but hoping for a couple inches!
Quoting 18. Patrap:
62.9F currently here, so to get to freezing tonight, that's going to be at least a 30F fall in temp.
35 degree drop over 24 hr period
Models aside, it is going to be hard to figure out exactly where the worst conditions (icing vs. snow) will occur but folks need to be prepared with adequate clothing, blankets, and alternative heat (fire wood or generators) if they lose electricity during the event.

It will be interesting to see how it all pans out but preparation is key to protect your family and property from this rather cold event and potential power loss.

Check back with Yall later after the PM updates and model runs.
Quoting 37. weathermanwannabe:
Interesting comment from the am Tally NWS discussion of the impacts of icing; this will be a big issue for our friends further to the North and those on the Southern Eastern Seaboard.

The disconcerting part of the forecast is the potential for significant ice accumulations. Much of
our forecast area could get between 0.05 and 0.25", with isolated higher amounts. In a part of the country with very little infrastructure to handle extreme cold and freezing/frozen precipitation, this could have as much of an impact as a tropicalcyclone...perhaps more. Downed power lines & large tree limbs would undoubtedly result in widespread power outages and impassable roads. Those who lack properly winterized shelter and true cold weather clothing risk hypothermia.


Also a good idea, to buy some pipe insulation from Loews-Home Deport (if they have any left) this evening and to cover any exposed pipes including lines going to your air-conditioning units if you will be running central heat during the event.


Two other bad options, but better than laying pipe after they burst are:

#1: Winterize your water system by shutting the water off, drain all of the water or as much as possible OUT of the pipes and leave valves open. Disconnect and bring in outside garden hoses (unless you don't care about them. Remember to turn off the water heater as you will need to drain this too. Not a great solution because you need and will want drinking water if at home. But if you were going to leave your house, this is what I would do.

Option #2: Let a small amount of water run through all the pipes. If it starts spitting ice turn up the water - remember to run the hot water too. Just because your tank is hot doesn't mean it keeps the pipes from freezing.

Option #3 - Expensive - and probably not easily doable is pipe heat tape. This also goes along with the insulation that weatherwannabe is recommending, at least the impossible to do and in time part.

Example of a Water pipe bursting:

Quoting 36. Dakster:


Yep -but that can get expensive too. And it usually takes longer to get something by barge then shipped by truck. And of course plane is ridiculously expensive.

I bet it will make people think twice when driving the road after it opens.


I saw a link yesterday that said the Market used the ferry to get there shipment in there or about now they would be up that creek, etc, etc..
Quoting 35. hydrus:

Everything looks to be lining up in exactly the wrong ways. Going to be interesting in the Houston area tomorrow...
Quoting 43. PedleyCA:


They are called golf shoes....


Good idea - never thought of that. Then again I don't golf.

Nothing more frustrating than trying to get a little ball into a dixie cup from 100's of yards awat.
In a part of the country with very little infrastructure to handle extreme cold and freezing/frozen precipitation, this could have as much of an impact as a tropicalcyclone...perhaps more. Downed power lines & large tree limbs would undoubtedly result in widespread power outages and impassable roads. Those who lack properly winterized shelter and true cold weather clothing risk hypothermia.

Also a good idea, to buy some pipe insulation from Loews-Home Deport (if they have any left) this evening and to cover any exposed pipes including lines going to your air-conditioning units if you will be running central heat during the event.


Another thing that can be useful is to turn up the heat a bit 24 hours before--the house will take longer to cool down if you lose power.
I'm going to try embedding this video, hope I don't shut down the blog!

My daughter shot this yesterday afternoon, and is about 15 miles north of Woodbury MN (Docs photo) The last 20 seconds are the best. The winds are still howling, temp is -18 and windchill is -45

Edit - sorry, does not look like it worked
Cold weather preparation

When the weather gets cold, elders especially may develop a reduction in their body temperature more easily as a result of decreased ability in temperature control and decrease in subcutaneous fat. Excessive drop in body temperature can lead to hypothermia. Elders with chronic illnesses, such as chronic respiratory diseases or asthma, are also vulnerable to disease deterioration in cold weather.



Put on adequate clothing. Wear several layers of not too tight or too bulky clothing. Always wear a hat and gloves, since ears and fingertips as well as noses are extremely susceptible to frost nip and frost bite.
Consume hot and easily digestible food and beverages with higher calories, like hot milk, soup, noodles and rice. Remember, alcohol actually accelerates the loss of body heat because it dilates blood vessels, so avoid alcoholic beverages.
Keep the home environment warm but well ventilated. Do not overload electricity supply.
Remain indoors or in places with sunlight. Continue with usual daily activities, but do more exercise to generate heat, improve blood circulation, and maintain flexibility of joints.
Exercise care and concern for the elderly. If you happen to know of a single elder living alone or with chronic illnesses, give him/her a call or pay a visit.
Stay off the ice. Determining the strength of ice is extremely difficult. Ice must be at least six inches thick to maintain the weight of a person and it takes weeks of freezing to get to that thickness.


What is hypothermia?

Hypothermia is defined as a fall in the core body temperature to below 35 degrees C (95 degrees F). Factors such as diabetes mellitus, hypothyroidism, use of hypnotics and alcohol predispose to the development of hypothermia. Anyone suspected to be suffering from hypothermia should be taken to see the doctor or taken to the hospital right away.

Mild - (body temp 90-95 degrees) The victim will have cold skin, especially of the hands and feet, pallor, excessive shivering, unsteady gait, difficulty in speaking or slurred speech and confusion. Some elders may not have the shivering response.
Moderate - (85-90 degrees) As the body temperature drops, victims become stuporous. Moderate hypothermia is characterized by loss of shivering, muscle rigidity, slowing down of heart beat, loss of voluntary movement and gradual loss of consciousness.
Severe - (less than 78 degrees) Victims become unresponsive with irregular heart beat, fall in blood pressure, total loss of consciousness and cardiac arrest.
Who is most susceptible?

Very old - May be unaware of their limitations. Due to limited mobility may be forced to spend increased amount of time exposed to the cold weather due to slow ambulation.
Very young - Thermoregulatory system is still immature. Babies rely on adults for warmth.
Infirmed - Due to illness or injury can't remove themselves from the cold source.

Indoors

Stay indoors and dress warmly.
Conserve fuel.
Lower the thermostat to 65 degrees during the day and 55 degrees at night. Close off unused rooms.
If the pipes freeze, remove any insulation or layers of newspapers and wrap pipes in rags.
Completely open all faucets and pour hot water over the pipes, starting where they were most exposed to the cold (or where the cold was most likely to penetrate).
Listen to the radio or television to get the latest information.
Residents need to be extra careful when using supplemental heating units. Make sure that all-combustible materials such as drapes or chairs are at least three feet away from any heating unit. Avoid using flammable liquids to start fireplaces and do not leave a fireplace unattended. Most importantly, check your smoke detector to make sure it is working properly

Outdoors

Dress warmly.
Wear loose-fitting, layered, lightweight clothing. Layers can be removed to prevent perspiration and chill. Outer garments should be tightly woven and water repellent. Mittens are warmer than gloves, due to the fact that fingers generate warmth when they touch each other.
Keep dry.
Change wet clothing frequently to prevent a loss of body heat. Wet clothing loses all of its insulating value and transmits heat rapidly
................................................. .....
well.....looks like we in el paso escape this cold front...temps dropped from the low 70's yesterday to a high of about 50 today...tomorrow will be 61 and wednesday a balmy 75...enjoy the cold folks
Nothing against the Doc but he should have picked towns along M28 between Munising and Marquette. My vote would be AuTrain...they got everything Munising did (wind up to 50mph, snow, whiteout conditions,ice covered roads) AND got the thrill of M28 being closed due to all of those conditions. And they will ticket anyone on there...first hand knowledge. Just in front of my house in Marquette this morning was a 2ft drift that wasn't there when I went to bed.
Valdez update:

The City of Valdez is aggressively working with the Marine Highway System to increase ferry traffic to Valdez while the road is closed. The airport and port facilities remain fully functional. The City of Valdez has confirmed that there is plenty of gasoline and heating fuel oil in town to serve local needs during an extended road closure. Should fuel run short at any time, it will be barged in as needed.

The City of Valdez has also confirmed with Providence Valdez Medical Center that they have sufficient staff and supplies on hand to maintain normal operations throughout this road closure period.

Safeway has confirmed that food trucks are in route to Valdez via barges arriving today (Sunday January 26th) and then again tomorrow (Monday January 27th). Safeway staff is prepared to work through the night to stock shelves as food and supplies arrive. If the road remains closed they will continue to barge food into Valdez as needed. Some items may take time to be restocked but food and supplies will be available on a regular basis.

This was taken from the KVAK Radio 93.3 website here.
I don't think the MS Gulf Coast is ready for something like this. Ice storms are very dangerous especially if they are large enough to bring down power lines. Stack up on wood if you have fireplace. It's all about staying warm. Very important to check on the Elderly and the young ones. Pets should be brought inside. And please, if you don't need to be driving then stay home. Shipyard is discussing shutting down as well as many other businesses in the area.
Quoting 47. Grothar:


My daughter will be very happy if this verifies, this is her forth year in Durham and she hasn't seen more than an occasional dusting, being from the Bahamas she is real excited about possibly seeing her first real snowfall
63. IKE
Rain moving in through the Florida panhandle...


Quoting 60. PedleyCA:
Valdez update:

The City of Valdez is aggressively working with the Marine Highway System to increase ferry traffic to Valdez while the road is closed. The airport and port facilities remain fully functional. The City of Valdez has confirmed that there is plenty of gasoline and heating fuel oil in town to serve local needs during an extended road closure. Should fuel run short at any time, it will be barged in as needed.

The City of Valdez has also confirmed with Providence Valdez Medical Center that they have sufficient staff and supplies on hand to maintain normal operations throughout this road closure period.

Safeway has confirmed that food trucks are in route to Valdez via barges arriving today (Sunday January 26th) and then again tomorrow (Monday January 27th). Safeway staff is prepared to work through the night to stock shelves as food and supplies arrive. If the road remains closed they will continue to barge food into Valdez as needed. Some items may take time to be restocked but food and supplies will be available on a regular basis.

This was taken from the KVAK Radio 93.3 website here.


Yep - you can do it. Just stinks that the normal ways of doing business have been interrupted. We don't have to worry about an Iditarod situation happening in Valdez.

Valdez population is 4,000 or so.

It does point to the fact that as a government, you always need to be prepared and as a citizen you SHOULD be prepared for something like this to happen. Can you today survive for a week or so without supplies?

My only concern is power - I don't have enough fuel on hand for the generator. But I have enough food and water.
Maybe we repeat this tight gradient




see how sharply snowfall declines on the edges

would give me between 0 and 15" of snow..

Most likely .5"
Accuweather for Daytona Beach:


Lo 42°
RealFeel® 34°
Precipitation 77%
Night

NESW
NNW 10 mph
Gusts: 14 mph
Chilly with rain
Max UV Index: N/A
Thunderstorms: 4%
Precipitation: 0.46 in
Rain: 0.46 in
Snow: 0 in
Ice: 0 in
Hours of Precipitation: 8.5 hrs
Hours of Rain: 8.5 hrs

I hope the temperatures can come down some and we get some winter weather out of this. Cold rain would just suck.
WECT TV 6 in Wilmington..

WECT News
Liked · 2 minutes ago

We've been getting a lot of calls and emails about school delays/cancellations for tomorrow. There aren't many yet, but rest assure, we'll keep you updated. You can text WECTNEWS to 91066 to get text alerts when the closings start coming in. Until then, keep clicking this link to see what to expect...the school delays/sports schedule changes are on the left. Stay warm!!

WEATHER DETAILS: http://bit.ly/1gjLxKa

Watching Mike Seidle on TWC he's in Chicago and says the temperature where he is at is -3 to -5 depending on what thermometer you are reading. So what is the temperature or do we just pick one?
Quoting 68. luvtogolf:
Watching Mike Seidle on TWC he's in Chicago and says the temperature where he is at is -3 to -5 depending on what thermometer you are reading. So what is the temperature or do we just pick one?
Go with -4 it's the avg. :D
For those thinking eastern NC coast(Jacksonville to Newport to Morehead City area getting more mix of sleet than snow ...what are you thoughts in how the 0z Euro plays into it? It had it cold across ALL of NC pretty early on in the 0z run. Think it holds any weight?
Quoting 70. air360:
For those thinking eastern NC coast(Jacksonville to Newport to Morehead City area getting more mix of sleet than snow ...what are you thoughts in how the 0z Euro plays into it? It had it cold across ALL of NC pretty early on in the 0z run. Think it holds any weight?


this what Brad Panovih said on his FB page:

Buck Rains What do you think it will do in Morehead city ? We have been getting estimates all over the place ! Thanks
Like · Reply · 16 minutes ago

Brad Panovich WCNC 4-6"
Like · 1 · 11 minutes ago
Quoting 33. Dakster:


And even then - seen quite a few slip and fall. Breaking a hip is a big deal and fatal in come cases. (I have two elderly relatives that broke hips and never recovered). I doubt anyone in the south has crampons unless they came from a northern area where those are used.
I misread "crampons" lol!
Quoting 73. JNTenne:
I misread "crampons" lol!



Too funny, but I don't think that those would help walking on ice if you put them on the bottom of your shoes.
My school is closed due to Winter Weather.
Special weather statement for
City of Toronto issued

Reduced visibilities in local blowing today and possibly Tuesday.

A weather system that passed over Southern Ontario last night and this morning resulted in about 10 cm of fluffy snow in most locales.

Strong west to northwest winds in the wake of this system have developed and are thus resulting in localized blowing snow and associated poor visibilities. North south routes in exposed areas will be most susceptible to poor travel conditions.

The winds are expected to abate somewhat tonight, however may remain strong enough for local blowing snow to persist into Tuesday in some areas.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.


Wind chill warning for
City of Toronto continued

Cold wind chills developing today and tonight.

In the wake of a cold front, falling temperatures and strong winds will generate wind chill values into the minus thirties tonight and likely persisting into Tuesday in most areas.

.
Quoting 75. Andrebrooks:
My school is closed due to Winter Weather.
Go take pictures!
Quoting 78. JNTenne:
Go take pictures!
I will.
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 1:00 PM EST Monday 27 January 2014
Condition:Drifting Snow
Pressure:29.9 inches
Tendency:rising
Visibility:10 miles
Temperature:12.6°F
Dewpoint:-0.8°F
Humidity:55%
Wind:W 22 gust 34 mph
Wind Chill: -7
Quoting 52. jeffs713:

Everything looks to be lining up in exactly the wrong ways. Going to be interesting in the Houston area tomorrow...


What do you mean? I'm trying to get opinions about the Houston area for tomorrow.
Quoting 61. CaneHunter031472:
I don't think the MS Gulf Coast is ready for something like this. Ice storms are very dangerous especially if they are large enough to bring down power lines. Stack up on wood if you have fireplace. It's all about staying warm. Very important to check on the Elderly and the young ones. Pets should be brought inside. And please, if you don't need to be driving then stay home. Shipyard is discussing shutting down as well as many other businesses in the area.
yes indeed..if you can..stay home and off the roads, its going to be very dangerous driving
Does anyone have number totals for snow in Atlanta from the WRF?
pretty strange NC getting 6-8 inches of snow..this winter is a mean one
Quoting 80. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 1:00 PM EST Monday 27 January 2014
Condition:Drifting Snow
Pressure:29.9 inches
Tendency:rising
Visibility:10 miles
Temperature:12.6°F
Dewpoint:-0.8°F
Humidity:55%
Wind:W 22 gust 34 mph
Wind Chill: -7


Isn't that normal winter weather for you?
Pascagoula School District in Mississippi just anounced that Schools will be closed tomorrow and wednesday. Other school districts to follow suit soon. Ingalls Shipbuilding might shutdown as well as well as several other businesses to include Doctor's offices in the area.
Allan Huffman's thinking

I guess because it didn't happen in a major city, it's not even mentioned that this is round 2 for some areas. I'm in west central LA, and I had 6 inches on the snow on the ground Friday morning. We haven't seen snow like that in a very long time. And it wasn't a wet snow, it was very powdery. It stayed all day Friday and melted Saturday.
NCStorm, thanks for the updates. I wasn't thrilled with the worse case scenario for Cary... :>)


gfs


Quoting 90. LuvsStorms:
I guess because it didn't happen in a major city, it's not even mentioned that this is round 2 for some areas. I'm in west central LA, and I had 6 inches on the snow on the ground Friday morning. We haven't seen snow like that in a very long time. And it wasn't a wet snow, it was very powdery. It stayed all day Friday and melted Saturday.
yeah this year the south has a real winter.
Winter Storm Watch

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
952 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-272100-
/O.CON.KAKQ.WS.A.0002.140128T1800Z-140129T2100Z/
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-INLAND CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARGARETTSVILLE...AHOSKIE...
ELIZABETH CITY...EDENTON...COROLLA
952 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* AREAS AFFECTED: NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS: SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS: 3 INCHES OR MORE.

* WINDS: NORTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH...HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST.

* TIMING: LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
PERIOD OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS: ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL COULD CAUSE PERIODS OF
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ACROSS THE AREA.


Quoting 93. Grothar:


gfs







Reindeer pelts make excellent winter Garb when sewn correctly.

Laplander 101'
2 Bags or 120 lbs of Sand here for Steps and porches.


ECMWF 12z has in general increased the snowfall amounts from Baton Rouge to just north of Mobile, over to Macon, and Columbia continuing northeastward. It should also be noted that it shows some areas of the panhandle of Florida exceeding 3 inches of snow:

Winter Storm Watch
Statement as of 7:53 AM CST on January 27, 2014

... Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from Tuesday morning
through late Tuesday night...

* timing... a wintry mix of precipitation could begin as early as
late Monday night... with the heaviest precipitation expected
Tuesday into Tuesday night.

* Impacts... snow amounts of one to two inches and possibly higher
in snow bands as well as sleet and freezing rain accumulations
of a quarter inch to a half inch are possible across the entire
area. Travel conditions are expected to become difficult due to
icy roads and bridges during the day on Tuesday. In areas where
significant freezing rain occurs... sporadic power outages are
possible. The highest potential for freezing rain will be across
southeast Louisiana south of Lake Pontchartrain including the
city of New Orleans.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow... sleet... or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.



98/so
G'day all. I hope everyone had a nice weekend. Thursday night into Friday we were in the 20s with sleet, ice, freezing rain and snow in the Austin metro area with all the school districts closed on Friday. There was some residual frozen stuff on the roofs Saturday and yesterday I was in shorts and a t-shirt enjoying the 77 degree weather.

As they say in Texas, we have two seasons...and usually they are in the same week :)
Is it normal for so much model disagreement when talking about an event just 24-36 hours away?
At work offshore in the GOM and looks likely I wont be able to crew change tomorrow. Looking for like late Wednesday or Thursday.
The 850 levels are killing me here on the coast of NC. we are SO close to have a total blockbuster foot or more...but that darn 850 line will not move 20miles east
Quoting 86. Dakster:


Isn't that normal winter weather for you?
yep only thing missing is 6 foot snow banks

and that still could happen got feb and half of march to go till spring
Quoting 104. CarolinaHurricanes87:
Is it normal for so much model disagreement when talking about an event just 24-36 hours away?


It happens with the hurricane models often as well. I wouldn't call it usually, but not abnormal to see it.
Quoting 104. CarolinaHurricanes87:
Is it normal for so much model disagreement when talking about an event just 24-36 hours away?


I'm not an expert in weather, but I do know that when models are diverging rather than converging on solutions, it usually means that something is wrong with the models. I read on one site that the models aren't really intended for the scenario of this storm, and, as a result, aren't doing a good job of prediction for this scenario. What concerns me is that if the models aren't capable of doing a good job with the storm dynamics, what would make them better as the storm gets closer? I guess eventually they will sync up to what actually happened...
Quoting 104. CarolinaHurricanes87:
Is it normal for so much model disagreement when talking about an event just 24-36 hours away?


Sometimes it happens especially with winter weather. This may be some we have to nowcast and use our brains rather than relying so much on the models. Tomorrow we will have idea of where the setup will be as far as snow, sleet, ice, etc.
Quoting 104. CarolinaHurricanes87:
Is it normal for so much model disagreement when talking about an event just 24-36 hours away?


We can't trust models forecasting 24 hours out but we can trust models that forecast 100 years out. And I do understand the difference between weather and climate.
Quoting 109. snow2fire:


I'm not an expert in weather, but I do know that when models are diverging rather than converging on solutions, it usually means that something is wrong with the models.

Typically the biggest source of uncertainty is due to poor model input, not necessarily the models themselves. Our observations of anything above the surface are spaced hundreds of miles apart, and only taken twice daily. Think about how much weather isn't sampled and then, with that context, think again about how well the models do with such limited data.
Quoting 111. luvtogolf:


We can't trust models forecasting 24 hours out but we can trust models that forecast 100 years out. And I do understand the difference between weather and climate.

Clearly you don't or you wouldn't have posted a statement that directly contradicts it, one sentence prior.
Quoting 109. snow2fire:


I'm not an expert in weather, but I do know that when models are diverging rather than converging on solutions, it usually means that something is wrong with the models. I read on one site that the models aren't really intended for the scenario of this storm, and, as a result, aren't doing a good job of prediction for this scenario. What concerns me is that if the models aren't capable of doing a good job with the storm dynamics, what would make them better as the storm gets closer? I guess eventually they will sync up to what actually happened...



I believe in a previous post you said you're in Cary NC, right? I grew up and went to HS there. Forget which year but in the late 90s or near 2000 we had that snowstorm that was going to be 1-3 inches... then 3-6.... 4-8.... 8-12.... woke up to nearly 2 feet. Were you around Cary for that one? Maybe a similar situation here (albeit less precip to work with) with all the model uncertainty
Quoting 112. ScottLincoln:

Typically the biggest source of uncertainty is due to poor model input, not necessarily the models themselves. Our observations of anything above the surface are spaced hundreds of miles apart, and only taken twice daily. Think about how much weather isn't sampled and then, with that context, think again about how well the models do with such limited data.


+10000000000
Quoting 88. ncstorm:
Allan Huffman's thinking

Allan mentioned that "A" in Western NC is actually 1-2 inches.
Quoting 110. Drakoen:


Sometimes it happens especially with winter weather. This may be some we have to nowcast and use our brains rather than relying so much on the models. Tomorrow we will have idea of where the setup will be as far as snow, sleet, ice, etc.


lets hope it don't end up like this but iam sure it will be close in some areas to being the case

Southern Stream Upper level low entering Baja California

Bigtime snows are exciting,ain't they?



I believe in a previous post you said you're in Cary NC, right? I grew up and went to HS there. Forget which year but in the late 90s or near 2000 we had that snowstorm that was going to be 1-3 inches... then 3-6.... 4-8.... 8-12.... woke up to nearly 2 feet. Were you around Cary for that one? Maybe a similar situation here (albeit less precip to work with) with all the model uncertainty

I grew up in Chicago! Yep, there were snow predictions for central NC that were way off, especially with this set up. I think I'll make a quick run to the grocery store and stock up on a couple of things... not that I'm worried or anything like that. :>)
Quoting 100. Drakoen:
ECMWF 12z has in general increased the snowfall amounts from Baton Rouge to just north of Mobile, over to Macon, and Columbia continuing northeastward. It should also be noted that it shows some areas of the panhandle of Florida exceeding 3 inches of snow:




Sadly, it has continued to trim away from accumulating snow in Tallahassee, it seems the models have trended from light accumulations of 1 to 2 inches to flurries now at best...

It's a sad state of affairs, oh well, with the dividing line between a few inches of snow and none at all being so short of a distance, that along with a lack of forecast confidence means we still have hope of some snow.
Sometimes a heavy band of snow can train over a certain area and really pile up,and fast! Even if you are in a 3 to 6inch prediction area! Yeap,seen it happen.
One thing to note is the arctic front is moving lot slower than models are putting it. We're supposed to have high around 40, but it's up to 51 degrees here now. This could be good thing for us in Western NC in term of overrunning, but this might be a disaster for snow lovers along the coast.
4km NAM: Snow mostly inland for Georgia and the Carolinas. Ice/sleet at the coast.

Pine Belt School Closings

Posted: Jan 27, 2014 10:15 AM CST
Updated: Jan 27, 2014 12:12 PM CST

The following is a list of schools in the Pine Belt that will be closed because of freezing weather conditions including ice and snow during the week starting on Monday, January 27, 2014.

Hattiesburg
• Sacred Heart - Closed Tuesday, pending rest of week
Colleges and Universities
• William Carey University - Closed Tuesday, pending rest of week
• PRCC - Closed Tuesday and Wednesday
Laurel
• Laurel Schools - Closed Tuesday, pending rest of week.
Lamar County
• All Schools - Closed Tuesday, pending rest of week.
Jones County
• All Schools - Closed Tuesday, pending rest of week.
Forrest County
• All Schools - Closed Tuesday, pending rest of week.
Lumberton
• Closed Tuesday, pending rest of week.
Quoting 96. owenowen:
Global cooling. When will those data fakers be held accountable? Ice age in the 70's from these same idiots. Got to get that "grant money" to keep their "careers alive, right? #pathetic


I wonder how this kind of comment is not moderated, since it is ad hominem and wrong.
127. etxwx
I've got a couple cows due to have their little ones sometime soon...let's hope it's after this latest blast passes on by because we are in the "wintry mix" mode again in Southeast Texas:




Here's a practical idea for keeping water running through your system, if you have a washer or dishwasher with delayed start, program it to run in the middle of the night to keep water moving. Also please pay attention to local water supply information, sometimes too many people letting their pipes drip causes problems for the water supplier - especially if there are power outages.

In the meantime, take care and stay warm.
Quoting 96. owenowen:

That's a wonderful story! Make sure you retain the movie rights. That's where the big money is.

Meantime, there's a terribly interesting snow storm a-brewin'.
A GOES-EAST SUPER RAPID SCAN...SRSO...WILL BE IN OPERATION
BEGINNING 1800Z TODAY ..THROUGH 0000Z 28 JAN 2014...IN
SUPPORT OF CIRA`S LAKE EFFECT SNOW RESEARCH.


Loops
Wow! NWS reporting 64 degrees at Raleigh Airport – prediction was 59 degrees.

I have no idea of what that means relative to winter storm forecast.
Quoting 126. drg0dOwnCountry:


I wonder how this kind of comment is not moderated, since it is ad hominem and wrong.


I wonder how your opinions and posts are the only ones that are valid. I guess everyone else should have their opinions quashed by the mods. reductio ad absurdum
Quoting 123. Bluestorm5:
One thing to note is the arctic front is moving lot slower than models are putting it. We're supposed to have high around 40, but it's up to 51 degrees here now. This could be good thing for us in Western NC in term of overrunning, but this might be a disaster for snow lovers along the coast.


How dare you speak of such things - it will be nothing but nice fluffy poweder all along the coast of NC #wishing #denial
Quoting 130. snow2fire:
Wow! NWS reporting 64 degrees at Raleigh Airport – prediction was 59 degrees.

I have no idea of what that means relative to winter storm forecast.
No impact for the future event, but it makes for a great day outside today!
Here is the current updated precip forecast for the Tallahassee/Big Bend Region:

Tuesday Night: Rain. Low around 35. North northeast wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Wednesday: Rain likely, possibly mixed with freezing rain and sleet before 1pm, then sleet, possibly mixed with rain, snow, and freezing rain. High near 38. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24.


With a day time high of 38 and 80% chance of precipitation during the day, looking like a very good chance of frozen rain-snow mix on Wednesday if this forecast pans out. That would be the day to stay off of the roads and unless they decide to close down State Offices and Schools on Wednesday, rush hour driving on Wednesday morning and again in the afternoon is going to be tough.
Quoting 107. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yep only thing missing is 6 foot snow banks

and that still could happen got feb and half of march to go till spring


That is what I thought. Thanks.

Hotter here than forecast too, but I rarely find temp forecasts to be accurate. Although they are typically in the ball park.

When we were forecasting to get the "polar vortex" we were not supposed to break 40F, it ended up being mid-30s. Just means that the forecast was busted by 5F-7F.
Quoting 132. air360:


How dare you speak of such things - it will be nothing but nice fluffy poweder all along the coast of NC #wishing #denial
Aww, don't give up on this storm yet :)
Quoting 127. etxwx:
I've got a couple cows due to have their little ones sometime soon...let's hope it's after this latest blast passes on by because we are in the "wintry mix" mode again in Southeast Texas:




Here's a practical idea for keeping water running through your system, if you have a washer or dishwasher with delayed start, program it to run in the middle of the night to keep water moving. Also please pay attention to local water supply information, sometimes too many people letting their pipes drip causes problems for the water supplier - especially if there are power outages.

In the meantime, take care and stay warm.


Stay warm out there as well.
My garden has taken a beating this year and is almost non existent. Even with taking the proper precautions covering the plants. The kicker has been the constant pendulum of deep freeze for a few days on end followed by much warmer than average temps. Rinse wash repeat. I kid you not but the plants had been confused thinking that a seasonal change was in store, started producing their canopies and bam frozen. I'm hoping that some have had enough of an established root system (namely my artichokes) to come back. I'm going to build a couple of greenhouses in March this time.
From the NWS, Wilmington, NC..I dont see anything in their 1pm discussion about the front slowing down..

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM MONDAY...TODAY CONTINUES THE "CALM BEFORE THE STORM" AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...CREATING A
PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED
INTO THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA BENEATH BRIGHT SUNSHINE...AND
WITH INCREASING SW FLOW...THEY WILL BE SLOW TO FALL THIS EVE. ARCTIC
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ENTERING WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL RACE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
...CROSSING OFFSHORE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AS THIS
FEATURE APPROACHES...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO
TIGHTEN...FORCING SW WINDS TO INCREASE THIS EVE AND TONIGHT. THIS
WARM WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS ELEVATED WITH ONLY A SLOW NOCTURNAL
DECREASE...AND THUS A PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS STILL
AROUND 50 A FEW HOURS AFTER DARK.

BIG CHANGES OCCUR WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT HOWEVER...WHICH IS PROGGED
TO CROSS FROM NW TO SE TONIGHT. THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT IS QUITE SHALLOW...REACHING ONLY TO AROUND
925MB...OR 2500 FT AGL. HOWEVER...THE CAA WITHIN THIS LAYER IS VERY
STRONG...WITH 950MB TEMPS FALLING NEARLY 20C BETWEEN 7PM TONIGHT AND
7AM TUESDAY! THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR WHAT WILL BE A PROLONGED WINTER
WEATHER EVENT BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...SURFACE WINDS VEER TO THE NE...AND SLOW
MOISTENING OF THE 1000-800MB LAYER BEGINS. AT THE SAME
TIME...INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT CAUSES THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE
COLUMN TO SATURATE AS WELL...AND IT APPEARS THAT SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIP WILL BEGIN BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY...FOCUSED PRIMARILY WITHIN
THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES OF THE CWA. WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE AN HOUR OF
TWO OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE (LIQUID ONLY) MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE GRAND STRAND...MUCH OF THE PRECIP THAT WILL FALL BEFORE
7AM TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SLEET. THIS IS ECHOED BOTH BY
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AND FROM LOCAL TOP-DOWN WEATHER PROCEDURES.
FULL LOW-LEVEL SATURATION DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD...AND THUS PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND HAVE CARRIED NO
SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATION TONIGHT. HOWEVER...HAVE TEMPORALLY EXPANDED
THE WSW...NOW BEGINNING AT 5AM TUESDAY...TO BETTER ENCOMPASS ALL OF
THE FROZEN PRECIP EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENT.

IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TONIGHT AND ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD 50 DEGREE READINGS ARE STILL LIKELY AFTER DARK...THE
STRONG CAA BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL DROP MINS INTO THE
20S NEAR I-95...AND TO 32 OR LESS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE
IMMEDIATE GRAND STRAND COAST TONIGHT.
Hey Levi good to see you! :)
Quoting 124. Levi32:
4km NAM: Snow mostly inland for Georgia and the Carolinas. Ice/sleet at the coast.

luvto: you expressed your views about climate models. What's your opinion of the data from last month, the month before, and the month before that, etc., as well as the data being collected this month?
Quoting 134. weathermanwannabe:
Here is the current updated precip forecast for the Tallahassee/Big Bend Region:

Tuesday Night: Rain. Low around 35. North northeast wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Wednesday: Rain likely, possibly mixed with freezing rain and sleet before 1pm, then sleet, possibly mixed with rain, snow, and freezing rain. High near 38. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24.


With a day time high of 38 and 80% chance of precipitation during the day, looking like a very good chance of frozen rain-snow mix on Wednesday if this forecast pans out. That would be the day to stay off of the roads and unless they decide to close down State Offices and Schools on Wednesday, rush hour driving on Wednesday morning and again in the afternoon is going to be tough.


The chance of seeing at least a little looks good, but models have decreased overall snow totals for TLH down to around a quarter inch falling with the backside of the precip shield during the afternoon on Wednesday.

Still though, we will have to just watch it closely as it unfolds. with heavier accumulations not far to the northwest, A colder atmospheric profile with depth than currently depicted by the models could easily occur over our area given the tight gradient and lack of forecast confidence.
In the 70's Baton Rouge lost water pressure mainly because of people running water. It wasn't really that cold--so there shouldn't have been many busted pipes--but there was some icing on trees. Maybe that made it seem colder. Ice did not affect driving. Still lost water pressure. Sigh.
BTW, it is not lost on me that folks living up North and particularly this Winter, are going through a terrible time this Winter..........This event is going to give many of us in the South a few days of what folks up North often put up with for weeks at a time during Winter.

Just hoping that folks in the South not used to these conditions will take this seriously and try to stay safe. Just talked to my Bud at work who used to live in Chicago and he says he is staying off the road because he is worried that his "snow driving" skills are 10 years old.

He just told me; if caught driving in these conditions, DO NOT slam on your brakes (and skid away)........Pump them to slow down and stop. Good Tip........... :)
that is an interesting discussion Ncstorm.

So NWS Wilmington is not set on it being a major ice event...they think the column will cool sooner than later (like mid-day tuesday instead of late tue night)? At least that is why I get. They dont talk about it because it is not in the near term period...but it does sound like it.

"MUCH OF THE PRECIP THAT WILL FALL BEFORE
7AM TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SLEET. THIS IS ECHOED BOTH BY
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AND FROM LOCAL TOP-DOWN WEATHER PROCEDURES.
FULL LOW-LEVEL SATURATION DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD"
Quoting 131. HeinrichFrogswatter:


I wonder how your opinions and posts are the only ones that are valid. I guess everyone else should have their opinions quashed by the mods. reductio ad absurdum

There are opinions and there are facts. So then let's break this down. Show me the validity of the comment (we leave out the ad hominem for now).

Show me the validity for the claim "data has been faked" and that the same guys said something about it's cooling in the 70's or that they only want grant money.


Actually all these talking points are from the denial playbook, paid for by people such as the Koch Brothers.

And yes i have facts to back that up, you can google all these from reliable sources. And private or industry funded blogs are not reliable sources.
Local met is saying for central florida tues-wens..we get rain BUT..it will be a very cold rain,and fog etc..he says my area probably wont get out of the 40's although early morning wens it will be mid 50's..then the temp crash comes..good thing its only a day or so..mid 70's for the weekend.
Quoting 144. air360:
that is an interesting discussion Ncstorm.

So NWS Wilmington is not set on it being a major ice event...they think the column will cool sooner than later? At least that is why I get. They dont talk about it because it is not in the near term period...but it does sound like it.

"MUCH OF THE PRECIP THAT WILL FALL BEFORE
7AM TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SLEET. THIS IS ECHOED BOTH BY
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...AND FROM LOCAL TOP-DOWN WEATHER PROCEDURES.
FULL LOW-LEVEL SATURATION DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD"


Air..its so many opinions out there right now..I'm just preparing for the worst and that would be ice..I rather see all snow though..

All I know is that it wont be sunny come tuesday afternoon..LOL..thats my now cast..

Nearby Airports

New Haven | Mostly Cloudy | 44 °F
Chester | Scattered Clouds | 43 °F
Meriden | Clear | 42 °F

Wrong location?


Nearby Weather Stations

Bishops Orchards-Meadow Ridge | 41.2 °F
Orcutt | 43.0 °F
Bishops Orchards-LHR | 41.7 °F
Quoting 143. weathermanwannabe:
Just talked to Bud at work who used to live in Chicago and he says he is staying off the road because he is worried that his "snow driving" skills are 10 years old.


I feel exactly the same - my sister and I are both planning on staying indoors for this storm as we haven't exercised our snow-driving skills in about 12 years now (moved from NW Rhode Island to SE South Carolina)! It was scary enough when we were used to it... not taking any chances now. ;)
150. wxmod
Another day of heavy smog in China. MODIS satellite photo. This view takes in about 2500 miles in both directions.

Quoting 148. hurricanes2018:

Nearby Airports

New Haven | Mostly Cloudy | 44 °F
Chester | Scattered Clouds | 43 °F
Meriden | Clear | 42 °F

Wrong location?


Nearby Weather Stations

Bishops Orchards-Meadow Ridge | 41.2 °F
Orcutt | 43.0 °F
Bishops Orchards-LHR | 41.7 °F
the cold weather is not here yet!!
I know it won't be bad here. Too many birds chirping and flying around.

When it is going to get cold it is eerily silent out.
Quoting 143. weathermanwannabe:
BTW, it is not lost on me that folks living up North and particularly this Winter, are going through a terrible time this Winter..........This event is going to give many of us in the South a few days of what folks up North often put up with for weeks at a time during Winter.

Just hoping that folks in the South not used to these conditions will take this seriously and try to stay safe. Just talked to my Bud at work who used to live in Chicago and he says he is staying off the road because he is worried that his "snow driving" skills are 10 years old.

He just told me; if caught driving in these conditions, DO NOT slam on your brakes (and skid away)........Pump them to slow down and stop. Good Tip........... :)
add to that..increase the distance between cars..with frozen roadway it takes longer to stop
Quoting 150. wxmod:
Another day of heavy smog in China. MODIS satellite photo. This view takes in about 2500 miles in both directions.



Btw

Delhi's Air Pollution is Even Worse Than Beijing's Smog
Quoting 152. Dakster:
I know it won't be bad here. Too many birds chirping and flying around.

When it is going to get cold it is eerily silent out.

That's because the snow on the ground muffles all the noise.
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:



I believe in a previous post you said you're in Cary NC, right? I grew up and went to HS there. Forget which year but in the late 90s or near 2000 we had that snowstorm that was going to be 1-3 inches... then 3-6.... 4-8.... 8-12.... woke up to nearly 2 feet. Were you around Cary for that one? Maybe a similar situation here (albeit less precip to work with) with all the model uncertainty


Well, that would be awesome....yes, it was January, 2000. I was in Wilmington, came back to Raleigh to see my parents a week later and there was still over a foot of snow on the ground and the roads in the neighborhood were almost impassable.
Dense Fog Advisory

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1244 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014

GULF COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE
SUWANNEE RIVER OUT TO 60 NM.

IMPORTANT NOTICE TO MARINERS...MARINE FORECASTS ARE ISSUED AT LEAST
FOUR TIMES A DAY. BOATERS ON EXTENDED TRIPS SHOULD ROUTINELY MONITOR
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST ISSUANCES AND UPDATES FOR THE LATEST MARINE
WEATHER INFORMATION.

THE WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT WHICH
IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE WAVES.
THE HIGHEST WAVES MAY RARELY BE TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.
THE WINDS AND SEAS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

GMZ830-272215-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-
1244 PM EST MON JAN 27 2014

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY...


Quoting 142. bappit:
In the 70's Baton Rouge lost water pressure mainly because of people running water. It wasn't really that cold--so there shouldn't have been many busted pipes--but there was some icing on trees. Maybe that made it seem colder. Ice did not affect driving. Still lost water pressure. Sigh.

So basically what happened is everyone got together to shut off the water to everybody and drain the pipes.
Quoting 145. drg0dOwnCountry:

There are opinions and there are facts. So then let's break this down. Show me the validity of the comment (we leave out the ad hominem for now).

Show me the validity for the claim "data has been faked" and that the same guys said something about it's cooling in the 70's or that they only want grant money.


Actually all these talking points are from the denial playbook, paid for by people such as the Koch Brothers.

And yes i have facts to back that up, you can google all these from reliable sources. And private or industry funded blogs are not reliable sources.


I guess I should have just put it a little more simply. This isn't your blog, you are merely posting comments, just like everyone else. So for you to decide who should or shouldn't be allowed to post to it is rather ridiculous, whether or not you like their facts, opinions, pants size or choice of breakfast cereals.
Quoting 111. luvtogolf:


We can't trust models forecasting 24 hours out but we can trust models that forecast 100 years out. And I do understand the difference between weather and climate.

Are you sure?
Quoting 121. Jedkins01:



Sadly, it has continued to trim away from accumulating snow in Tallahassee, it seems the models have trended from light accumulations of 1 to 2 inches to flurries now at best...

It's a sad state of affairs, oh well, with the dividing line between a few inches of snow and none at all being so short of a distance, that along with a lack of forecast confidence means we still have hope of some snow.
The panhandle will get snow, I'm even thinking Jacksonville will get in on the action as well. I'm interested to see how far south the sleet precipitation will get.
Quoting 156. MoosetacheCanes:


Well, that would be awesome....yes, it was January, 2000. I was in Wilmington, came back to Raleigh to see my parents a week later and there was still over a foot of snow on the ground and the roads in the neighborhood were almost impassable.
Here's the event summary from NWS Raleigh. That was quite a fun storm! Link
Quoting 161. LargoFl:


I may be wrong, but is that saying there will still be stuff coming down in south LA wednesday afternoon?!
167. IKE
Event:Hard Freeze WatchAlert:...A HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT...


.A VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

...HARD FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A HARD FREEZE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

* TEMPERATURE...TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20 DEGREES OVERNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...TEMPERATURES THIS COLD CAN CAUSE EXPOSED...
UNPROTECTED WATER PIPES TO BURST...AND CAN BRING AN INCREASED
RISK TO THE WELL BEING OF PEOPLE...OUTDOOR PETS AND LIVESTOCK.
THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR THE LOSS OF UNPROTECTED... COLD
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR VEGETATION.Instructions:A HARD FREEZE WATCH MEANS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO
20 DEGREES OR LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE
CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER COLD SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
TEMPERATURES SUCH AS THESE CAN CAUSE EXPOSED WATER PIPES TO
BURST. MAKE PLANS TO CHECK ON ELDERLY NEIGHBORS TO MAKE SURE THEY
HAVE ADEQUATE HEAT. AREA SHELTERS SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR
EXTRA DEMAND.
EVERYONE SHOULD TAKE ADEQUATE SAFETY PRECAUTIONS WITH THEIR
HEATING SYSTEMS...AND MAKE SURE TO UTILIZE CARBON MONOXIDE
DETECTORS IN ENCLOSED SPACES. EXTRA CAUTION SHOULD BE USED WITH
PORTABLE SPACE HEATERS. MAKE SURE SPACE HEATERS ARE NOT LEFT
UNATTENDED AND ARE NOT USED NEAR FLAMMABLE MATERIALS SUCH AS
CURTAINS OR BED COVERINGS. LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR
LOCAL NEWS MEDIA OUTLETS FOR LATER UPDATES ON THE DEVELOPING COLD
WEATHER SITUATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.Target Area:Butler
Conecuh
Crenshaw
Escambia
Upper Baldwin
Upper Mobile
Up to 4F degrees at the airport .. forecast was only for 3F .. but still only 1F here at the house..
wind-chill up to -10 ..


Peoria, Illinois (Airport)

4 °F

Overcast
Windchill: -10 °F
Humidity: 55%
Dew Point: -9 °F
Wind: 9 mph from the WNW
Wind Gust: 23 mph
Pressure: 30.42 in (Steady)
170. yoboi
Quoting 163. GTstormChaserCaleb:
The panhandle will get snow, I'm even thinking Jacksonville will get in on the action as well. I'm interested to see how far south the sleet precipitation will get.


I hope Miami gets some...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE GEORGIA WATERS TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WINTER STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR JEFF DAVIS...COFFEE...BACON...APPLING...
AND WAYNE COUNTIES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ICE ACCUMULATION WITH THIS
WINTER WEATHER EVENT.

A RAIN AND SLEET MIX IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. A COLD RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
RAINFALL AND THE WINTRY MIX WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS EXPECTED INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH RECENT
RAINFALL...THERE IS CONCERN THAT WET ROADS...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES
COULD FREEZE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAKING FOR POCKETS OF DANGEROUS ROAD
ICE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

A NORTHERLY SURGE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED TO BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL WATERS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.
Is there really a westward trend or not? Seems that for the past 24 hours everyones saying its trending west, but the forecast for Charlotte has remained the same: flurries / dusting
Just in case it does happen for Tallahassee, and I take pictures with the I-phone, does anyone on here know how to upload I-phone pictures to this Blog (i.e email them to myself and copy or another procedure)?

Thanks in advance.
Quoting 159. HeinrichFrogswatter:


I guess I should have just put it a little more simply. This isn't your blog, you are merely posting comments, just like everyone else. So for you to decide who should or shouldn't be allowed to post to it is rather ridiculous, whether or not you like their facts, opinions, pants size or choice of breakfast cereals.


Now is a good time to make yourself comfortable with the board rules.

"Keep it civil. Personal attacks, bickering, flaming, and general trollish behavior will not be tolerated. Disagreements are fine, but keep them civil and short."

Calling people "idiots" is considered a personal attack. Further is repeated ignoring of provided facts and the science considered trolling.

You claim the points made in comment 96 are valid, but you didn't provided any prove to back up your sensational claims.
Quoting 170. yoboi:


I hope Miami gets some...
Won't go that far south, they will be in the warm sector.
Quoting 126. drg0dOwnCountry:


I wonder how this kind of comment is not moderated, since it is ad hominem and wrong.


One~ I think you misread it.. I took it as a rant against people claiming global cooling is happening. Same side as you just angrier.

This is still a very self moderated community. Moderators are mostly here to keep the really harmful people out & the peace in general, not so much to moderate opinions that aren't attacking people here specifically. That wasn't breaking any community rules. Sometimes the community has tighter standards.. If you don't like it ! the comment, not quote it.
Quoting 173. weathermanwannabe:
Just in case it does happen for Tallahassee, and I take pictures with the I-phone, does anyone on here know how to upload I-phone pictures to this Blog (i.e email them to myself and copy or another procedure)?

Thanks in advance.
u could upload em to gmail then copy and paste them or email to yourself and do it

I use gmail myself only problem it takes a bit of time for it to show up
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
140 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014

...SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TOMORROW...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TODAY
AND IS SITUATED SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION
BACK INTO THE AREA. WITH A VERY COLD AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE...
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO FALL AS FREEZING RAIN...SLEET OR SNOW ACROSS
MOST OR ALL OF THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS FROM ICING DUE TO FREEZING RAIN AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT
PROBLEMS WITH TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES FALLING.

LAZ034>037-039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ06 8>071-077-080>082-280345-
/O.UPG.KLIX.WS.A.0001.140128T1200Z-140129T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KLIX.WS.W.0001.140128T1200Z-140129T1200Z/
POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-WASHINGTON-
ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-
LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-
UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-
UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW ROADS...LIVONIA...
ST. FRANCISVILLE...JACKSON...CLINTON...GREENSBURG...MO NTPELIER...
BOGALUSA...FRANKLINTON...SLIDELL...MANDEVILLE...C OVINGTON...
LACOMBE...PLAQUEMINE...WHITE CASTLE...PORT ALLEN...ADDIS...
BRUSLY...BATON ROUGE...GONZALES...DONALDSONVILLE...
DENHAM SPRINGS...WALKER...PIERRE PART...LABADIEVILLE...
PAINCOURTVILLE...LUTCHER...GRAMERCY...LAPLACE...R ESERVE...
THIBODAUX...RACELAND...LAROSE...DESTREHAN...NORCO ...METAIRIE...
KENNER...NEW ORLEANS...BELLE CHASSE...CHALMETTE...VIOLET...
HOUMA...BAYOU CANE...CHAUVIN...DULAC...MONTEGUT...GALLIANO...
CUT OFF...GOLDEN MEADOW...PORT SULPHUR...EMPIRE...YSCLOSKEY...
AMITE...KENTWOOD...HAMMOND...PONCHATOULA...CENTRE VILLE...
WOODVILLE...GLOSTER...LIBERTY...CROSBY...MCCOMB.. .TYLERTOWN...
PICAYUNE...BAY ST. LOUIS...WAVELAND...DIAMONDHEAD...GULFPORT...
BILOXI...PASCAGOULA...OCEAN SPRINGS...MOSS POINT...GAUTIER...
ST. MARTIN
140 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS
NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS
DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO
SLEET AND SNOW GENERALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED IN ALL LOCATIONS WITH
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLY NEARING ONE HALF INCH SOUTH OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AND IN THE METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AREA. SNOW
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT
LOUISIANA PARISHES. ELSEWHERE IN THE WARNED AREA...SNOW AMOUNTS
OF NEAR TO LESS THAN ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...A HARD
FREEZE IS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT...DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME ESPECIALLY
HAZARDOUS BEGINNING BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH MID-
MORNING. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE
ABOVE FREEZING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF TIME...HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. IN
ADDITION...ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS WITH POWER LINES AND
TREE LIMBS BECOMING TOO HEAVY TO MAINTAIN THEIR INTEGRITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...SLEET...
AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

$$

98/SO
Winter storm warning for south Mississippi..
180. yoboi
Quoting 175. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Won't go that far south, they will be in the warm sector.



I know.....but I would still like to see Miami get snow....
but sometimes when one don't listen well it gets taken care of

Quoting Chapelhill:
Here's the event summary from NWS Raleigh. That was quite a fun storm! Link


Thanks! That was a good read...hadnt seen that before. My dad has a picture at their house of him with a tape measure on our deck the morning after...just over 24" on the deck table. They are about 15-20 min east of RDU.
Quoting 155. bappit:

That's because the snow on the ground muffles all the noise.


NO snow in Miami... So that isn't it. I think they all fly to the Bahamas or Cuba where it is warm. (or hunker down somehwere)
Quoting 121. Jedkins01:



Sadly, it has continued to trim away from accumulating snow in Tallahassee, it seems the models have trended from light accumulations of 1 to 2 inches to flurries now at best...

It's a sad state of affairs, oh well, with the dividing line between a few inches of snow and none at all being so short of a distance, that along with a lack of forecast confidence means we still have hope of some snow.


True. If you really want to see snow you could always go north of 75 into Georgia.
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS
NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS
DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

Quoting 156. MoosetacheCanes:


Well, that would be awesome....yes, it was January, 2000. I was in Wilmington, came back to Raleigh to see my parents a week later and there was still over a foot of snow on the ground and the roads in the neighborhood were almost impassable.


I moved to NC in 2001 (from Illinois) and missed the big snowstorms and Fran! I heard it was pretty bad in the 2000 storm as well as in some other prior storms.
Quoting 117. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


lets hope it don't end up like this but iam sure it will be close in some areas to being the case




What's scarier, and it does take a bit of freezing rain to pull off , is when the Pine Trees take on the ice. Those needles hold a lot of water, and pines are not able to hold all that weight up top.
Snap, crackle, pop.

That was one of the biggest issues in Raleigh in 2002.
Quoting 185. Patrap:
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS
NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS
DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.



Apparently the Lake Charles office has frozen in fear. The NWS map doesn't show Western part of LA even having a watch. I expect a warning here soon too..

LOL "Winter Storm Watch in effect from January 28, 06:00 AM CST until January 29, 06:00 AM CST"

I thought a watch was supposed to warn that something may be coming..not when it already is beginning...
I think the NWS at Peachtree City should have upgraded some of the watches to warnings by now. They seem to be quite nervous about the forecast.
190. IKE
And the warnings begin. Here we go.
Having lived in Atlanta for about 40 years, I recall that the worst winter weather was usually an ice storm. Then, there was Snow Jam '82 on 12 January, when a snow storm blew in after lunch and people were caught at work. The commute home rapidly became impossible as the freeways shutdown. Atlanta is rather hilly and one fool with the wrong tires trying to ascend a snow covered hill could block the road for everyone else. People simply abandoned their cars on the freeway and looked for shelter. It was all over by around midnight.

At the moment, from my present vantage point at 3,000 feet above sea level near the corner of NC, TN and VA, the temperature at 2:45 PM is 34F and slowly dropping. The forecasters are calling for single digits by tomorrow morning.


What is happening now is that Arctic air is penetrating much farther south than it used to be a couple of years ago. Yes, there are colder Winter's in the past but now we can almost see this kind of extreme cold every winter. And so far colds are not really record breaking, but it wouldn't surprise me if they were during this kind of cold outbreaks. And it affects the entire Northern Hemisphere and another result is that warmer air is taken place in parts of the Arctic instead.



A dangerous and weather-wrecking polar heat amplification in the Arctic set off by human-caused global warming keeps kicking into higher and higher gear…

What models predicted earlier this week and what we reported on Thursday has finally happened. A major influx of record-breaking winter warmth has flooded into the high Arctic, disrupting the polar vortex to the point that it is currently ripped in twain
.


Better find some warmer clothes Pat....
really fridged air temps coming down the pike....
Wow! NWS reporting 64 degrees at Raleigh Airport – prediction was 59 degrees.

I have no idea of what that means relative to winter storm forecast.
Quoting 164. Chapelhill:
Here's the event summary from NWS Raleigh.

There was an interesting summary pic in the link: forecast at 48 hours (no snow) and what actually happened (almost 2 feet of snow) in the Raleigh storm. Yikes!
Plenty of down Jackets and gloves in my go bag.
Quoting 195. PedleyCA:
Better find some warmer clothes Pat....


He said that he blogged naked? Shouldn't he just find clothes? (and not just for a winter storm?)
200. IKE

12m
Deep snowcover means Wilimington NC all time record Jan low of 5 set in Reagan outbreak 1985 may be challenged wed night
Quoting 143. weathermanwannabe:
BTW, it is not lost on me that folks living up North and particularly this Winter, are going through a terrible time this Winter..........This event is going to give many of us in the South a few days of what folks up North often put up with for weeks at a time during Winter.

Just hoping that folks in the South not used to these conditions will take this seriously and try to stay safe. Just talked to my Bud at work who used to live in Chicago and he says he is staying off the road because he is worried that his "snow driving" skills are 10 years old.

He just told me; if caught driving in these conditions, DO NOT slam on your brakes (and skid away)........Pump them to slow down and stop. Good Tip........... :)


NEVER PUMP if you have ABS brakes !!
Winter Storm LEON is the Systems name via TWC.

I'm wondering why the Charleston nws hasn't issued a warning yet? So they know something we don't ?
Quoting 191. EricGreen:
Having lived in Atlanta for about 40 years, I recall that the worst winter weather was usually an ice storm. Then, there was Snow Jam '82, when a snow storm blew in after lunch and people were caught at work. The commute home rapidly became impossible as the freeways shutdown.


I lived in Peachtree City for that storm. Schools let out early, but not early enough as the sleet made driving poor in a hurry. By the time the busses got to my high schools there was 2" of sleet on the roads and we slid all over the roads getting home. Lots of fun for a teenager, but would never want my children in that situation. My Dad was FIC NWS in Atlanta then. Precip moved/developed a few hours faster than expected. Forecasting winter weather in the South is tough.
Potentially Major Winter Storm to Bring Snow, Ice to Gulf Coast, Georgia and Carolinas

January 27, 2014

A disruptive winter storm is possible this week from the Gulf Coast to the coastal Carolinas.
Quoting 201. FLGatorCaneNut:


NEVER PUMP if you have ABS breaks !!


No kidding and how many cars percentwise do you think are on the road WITHOUT ABS brakes anyways?

With the exception of my work car, I don't think I have had a car without ABS brakes in over 20 years.
Quoting 201. FLGatorCaneNut:


NEVER PUMP if you have ABS brakes !!


Thanks; I do................(My Chicago Bud used to be in fledgling unsigned rock bands and I suppose they used to drive old clunkers with no ABS now that I think about it)....
Quoting 194. drg0dOwnCountry:
What is happening now is that Arctic air is penetrating much farther south than it used to be a couple of years ago. Yes, there are colder Winter's in the past but now we can almost see this kind of extreme cold every winter. And so far colds are not really record breaking, but it wouldn't surprise me if they were during this kind of cold outbreaks. And it affects the entire Northern Hemisphere and another result is that warmer air is taken place in parts of the Arctic instead.



A dangerous and weather-wrecking polar heat amplification in the Arctic set off by human-caused global warming keeps kicking into higher and higher gear…

What models predicted earlier this week and what we reported on Thursday has finally happened. A major influx of record-breaking winter warmth has flooded into the high Arctic, disrupting the polar vortex to the point that it is currently ripped in twain
.





Source | GFS / NCEP / US National Weather Service
Date | 2014-01-27 16:00 Local ⇄ UTC

Data | Wind @ 70 hPa + Temp @ 70 hPa


Link
Quoting 209. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



Source | GFS / NCEP / US National Weather Service
Date | 2014-01-27 16:00 Local ⇄ UTC

Data | Wind @ 70 hPa + Temp @ 70 hPa


Link


Quoting 200. IKE:

12m
Deep snowcover means Wilimington NC all time record Jan low of 5 set in Reagan outbreak 1985 may be challenged wed night


well thats comforting..
Quoting 207. Dakster:


No kidding and how many cars percentwise do you think are on the road WITHOUT ABS brakes anyways?

With the exception of my work car, I don't think I have had a car without ABS brakes in over 20 years.


When your tires start to slide you can really feel the abs take over, they will pump much faster than you ever could. Really wonderful piece of engineering.
I have a 70% chance of .5" of snow...depressing. I suppose it'd be nice to see real snowflakes instead of flurries but it's boring without accumulation.

Should be really light being on the northern fringe too, if it even materializes.
214. wxmod
Quoting 154. drg0dOwnCountry:


Btw

Delhi's Air Pollution is Even Worse Than Beijing's Smog


This may be true, but China has a million square miles covered in thick smog on a regular basis. The global damage from this is enormous. India smog never quite compares. Close though!
Quoting 184. Drakoen:


True. If you really want to see snow you could always go north of 75 into Georgia.


And I could go south. But i have school.
Quoting 202. Patrap:
Winter Storm LEON is the Systems name via TWC.

2 straight named winter storms affecting the south.
Quoting 212. VAbeachhurricanes:


When your tires start to slide you can really feel the abs take over, they will pump much faster than you ever could. Really wonderful piece of engineering.
I always take the foot off the gas and put the gear stick in neutral

if all else fails turn the wheel take yerself out brace for impact
Quoting 215. GeorgiaStormz:


And I could go south. But i have school.
That move to Midtown is looking pretty good now! My school is in Collage Park so I have a chance of seeing 1 1/2 inches.
Quoting 218. hurricanehunter27:
That move to Midtown is looking pretty good now! My school is in Collage Park so I have a chance of seeing 1 1/2 inches.


I'm not sold on this even reaching ATL
Quoting 219. GeorgiaStormz:


I'm not sold on this even reaching ATL
I'm not either, but always good to remain optimistic. We should, or at least I hope so, by tonight know what we can hope for.
Quoting 207. Dakster:


No kidding and how many cars percentwise do you think are on the road WITHOUT ABS brakes anyways?

With the exception of my work car, I don't think I have had a car without ABS brakes in over 20 years.


ABS was optional on Toyota Corolla's until the 2009 model year, when it became standard. Toyota sells a lot of Corolla's but I do not know how many without ABS. My daughter's 2006 does not.
Raleigh's afternoon package is out. They are going with a faster moving system, with mor snow futher west into the Piedmont. About 3" for all the Piedmont, and 5" or more for the Western Coastal Plain of NC.
Quoting 212. VAbeachhurricanes:


When your tires start to slide you can really feel the abs take over, they will pump much faster than you ever could. Really wonderful piece of engineering.


Been there, done that... Traction and yaw control as well. Most on an off public road course that was setup to be slick.

Had to do it again with a vehicle without ABS, ended up plowing for potatoes.

Only situations that not having ABS provides a shorter stopping distance is a dry hard stop or stop on pebbles on a dry surface. Unfortunately, I know the road debris on dry pavement part first hand - wrecked a car when someone cut me off and I slammed on the brakes. ABS actually prevented the vehicle from slowing down.
Quoting 209. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



Source | GFS / NCEP / US National Weather Service
Date | 2014-01-27 16:00 Local ⇄ UTC

Data | Wind @ 70 hPa + Temp @ 70 hPa


Link

This is very cool but i think you need to use 250 or 500 for height(I'm not entirely sure why).
Quoting 219. GeorgiaStormz:


I'm not sold on this even reaching ATL


I think Atlanta is in a good spot to get 1-3 in.
Quoting 221. DFWdad:


ABS was optional on Toyota Corolla's until the 2009 model year, when it became standard. Toyota sells a lot of Corolla's but I do not know how many without ABS. My daughter's 2006 does not.


Toyota is really behind the times then. I thought Ford was bad in the Taurus, considering I have a 2001 that doesn't have the ABS option. FWIW, a year later it was standard.
A widespread winter storm for the South
Jan .27, 2014 2:06 pm ET

South |


- Arctic air invades the region Monday night and sets the stage for a widespread and messy Winter Storm Leon.

- Light snow Tuesday morning will spread from parts of eastern Texas across parts of northern Louisiana and on to northern Georgia my early afternoon (generally 1"-3").

- Light snow moves into the western Carolinas by Tuesday afternoon.

- Look for heavier snow (5"-8" with locally heavier amounts) from northeast South Carolina to eastern North Carolina (away from the immediate coast) to extreme southeast Virginia.

- Light sleet and freezing rain from southeast Texas early Tuesday then spreading quickly through southern Louisiana to southern Alabama, southern Georgia and the far western panhandle of Florida.

- Road and air travel delays are expected.

- More significant freezing rain from south central to southeast Georgia to eastern South Carolina (including areas around savannah and Charleston.

- There could be enough ice to create significant travel problems and power outages (in areas where freezing rain is rare).

- Dry conditions are expected from northeast Texas through much of Kentucky and Tennessee Tuesday.

- Tuesday highs in the 20s and 30s across much of the southeast.

- warm highs in the 70s to low 80s across southern Florida

- Highs in the 40s to low 40s across much of Texas to Louisiana
..you did say Winter Storm Warning for Dixie, right ?

Well, it's already started - a bunch of Charleston school districts have already announced half-days tomorrow and a few have already closed for Wednesday. I'm glad they're choosing to be cautious with this weather setup! ...expecting to see weather warnings posted in our area soon.
231. PTXer
Quoting 221. DFWdad:


ABS was optional on Toyota Corolla's until the 2009 model year, when it became standard. Toyota sells a lot of Corolla's but I do not know how many without ABS. My daughter's 2006 does not.

My 2007 Nissan does not have ABS. The last year it was optional. I assumed it had ABS when I bought it used. came to find out it didn't.
NWS Tallahassee updated with an 80% chance of freezing rain and then a 60% chance of a wintry mix. No watches up.
Atlanta IS in the warned area..........................URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1101 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014

GAZ025-027-031>039-041>062-066>076-078>084-089>09 6-102>107-280015-
/O.CON.KFFC.WS.A.0002.140128T1500Z-140129T1800Z/
JACKSON-MADISON-PAULDING-COBB-NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-
OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS -SOUTH FULTON-
DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIA FERRO-HEARD-
COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-JASPE R-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-
WARREN-TROUP-MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-J ONES-BALDWIN-
WASHINGTON-GLASCOCK-JEFFERSON-HARRIS-TALBOT-TAYLO R-CRAWFORD-BIBB-
TWIGGS-WILKINSON-MUSCOGEE-CHATTAHOOCHEE-MARION-SC HLEY-MACON-PEACH-
HOUSTON-BLECKLEY-STEWART-WEBSTER-SUMTER-DOOLY-CRI SP-PULASKI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...LAWRENCEVILLE...
ATHENS...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...DECATUR...
CONYERS...COVINGTON...NEWNAN...PEACHTREE CITY...GRIFFIN...
MILLEDGEVILLE...MACON...COLUMBUS...WARNER ROBINS...LUMPKIN...
AMERICUS...CORDELE
1101 AM EST MON JAN 27 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HARALSON TO NORTH
FULTON TO MADISON COUNTY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND SLEET.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1/2 INCH TO 2 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS EARLY AS MID MORNING
TUESDAY AND LAST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ICE
ACCUMULATION ON TREES AND POWER LINES MAY DOWN LARGE LIMBS AND
CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE FOR THIS WINTER STORM. BE SURE TO BUY
NON PERISHABLE FOODS. MAKE CONTINGENCY PLANS IF YOU PLAN ON
TRAVELING DURING THIS PERIOD. IF YOU CAN CHANGE YOUR TRAVEL...DO
SO BEFORE THE EVENT STARTS. NOW IS THE TIME TO PLAN...DO NOT WAIT
FOR THE WARNING!

&&

$$
Every local NWS office in the South-SE will have their localized-individual take on the models and local impacts in their pm and evening discussions later on this evening as we get closer to the event. It will be interesting to see how they differ slightly and what the actual outcome is. We will not really know exactly how the boundry layers, precipitation, and temps will shift and fall into place as the front passes through each region.

It will boil down to a timing issue and for me (in the Big Bend), and I will have to see how conditions are unfolding on an hourly basis to our West in the Panhandle and Southern Georgia to see if we can expect the same here further East. Lots of factors in play including topography, proximity to water, and timing of conditions that make the difference between the possible winter mixes. Basically a wait and see what happens.

Many of the normal Fall and Spring fronts in this area (in terms of strong t-storms and squall lines) lose their punch after crossing the Apalachicola river headed east towards the Big Bend due to the stabilizing effect of Apallachee Bay. Don't know how this type of unusual event will be affected by the same factors and whether the frozen precip will be enhanced or diminished by the Bay effect after crossing the River on the way here.
NAM 18z even more bullish with the precipitation as the northern stream dives southward.
Largo: please check your source. The map of Europe you posted claiming to show the highs for today is actually showing the lows for Rome, Paris, and Madrid, and probably other locations as well
Does anyone have a good link to a page with recent model runs for this storm?
Quoting 237. ACSeattle:
Largo: please check your source. The map of Europe you posted claiming to show the highs for today is actually showing the lows for Rome, Paris, and Madrid, and probably other locations as well
ok ty..that was from a local cable news outlet.
Not sure what CHS is waiting for here.....

New Orleans is under a WSW, but we're still under a watch?? Today guys....pretty sure this warrants a warning.
Quoting 240. nash36:
Not sure what CHS is waiting for here.....

New Orleans is under a WSW, but we're still under a watch?? Today guys....pretty sure this warrants a warning.


South central LA is not even under a watch till tomorrow morning. Talk about difference between jumping the gun and falling asleep at the desk. Lol
WSW to my south

btw anyone heard of Aweather? Cool radar program, seems like whoever started it stopped working on it halfway through.

Link

From NWS Raleigh Office 2 hours ago:

Last set of morning model guidance is in and models continue to converge on a wetter (actually whiter) solution. Will likely be increasing snow amounts slightly and expanding accumulations a bit further west. More details soon...
Would give me a dusting


i think you all are making a big deal out of nothing...come on guys...toughen up......says someone who will have decent temps the next few days and will suffer through none of it....LOL




in other words.....stay happy...stay warm..and most of all....stay safe
Quoting 238. carolinabelle:
Does anyone have a good link to a page with recent model runs for this storm?



Next Generation Weather Lab

Link
Quoting 240. nash36:
Not sure what CHS is waiting for here.....

New Orleans is under a WSW, but we're still under a watch?? Today guys....pretty sure this warrants a warning.


Not sure what TLH is waiting for here, when the models are showing significant freezing rain for our area.
Quoting 241. neonlazer:


South central LA is not even under a watch till tomorrow morning. Talk about difference between jumping the gun and falling asleep at the desk. Lol


My company just sent a site-wide email stating that operations will be running as normal Tues and Wednesday. They're out of their minds!!!! Did they miss the part of the forecast saying "MAJOR ICE STORM?!?!?!"

My bet is they are seeing Winter Storm Watch, so they're not worried. Needs to change to a warning. Maybe harsher language will make the difference.
Quoting 247. Drakoen:


Not sure what TLH is waiting for here, when the models are showing significant freezing rain for our area.


Agreed Drak. Makes me shake my head.
Quoting 235. Drakoen:
NAM 18z even more bullish with the precipitation as the northern stream dives southward.


Bully, jus Bully ol Man !

Quoting 246. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



Next Generation Weather Lab

Link


Thank you! Much appreciated :)
So Drakoen how do you think this storm will compare to the 1973 snow storm? This track looks very similar I live in Columbia SC and I'm just wondering if this one will be in the same ballpark?
Winter storm warnings up in Georgia
Quoting 247. Drakoen:


Not sure what TLH is waiting for here, when the models are showing significant freezing rain for our area.
maybe they just refuse to accept that its to happen
Quoting 214. wxmod:


This may be true, but China has a million square miles covered in thick smog on a regular basis. The global damage from this is enormous. India smog never quite compares. Close though!

Surface area of the earth in Square miles:-

196,940,400 square miles

Based on your statement about half of one per cent of the Earth's surface its therefore often covered in snog solely from China.
Or another way of putting it is, China produces enough snog in 200 days to cover the whole surface of the Earth.
Quoting 247. Drakoen:


Not sure what TLH is waiting for here, when the models are showing significant freezing rain for our area.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
332 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2014


Excerpt:

Although our forecast snow and ice amounts are mostly below our
local criteria for a Winter Storm Warning, we have decided to go
with a warning to avoid confusion (between neighboring WFOs and
from our previously worded watch). It`s also possible that
isolated amounts (either ice or snow) may exceed our local warning
criteria. The main impact appears to be hazardous travel, but if
there as heavier icing than forecast, power outages could become a
problem. This would make people in non-winterized shelters (and
without true winter clothing) vulnerable to a prolonged period of
cold temperatures and low wind chills.


Link
Winter storm warnings up for SE LA including NOLA metro
Quoting 252. scCane:
So Drakoen how do you think this storm will compare to the 1973 snow storm? This track looks very similar I live in Columbia SC and I'm just wondering if this one will be in the same ballpark?


That is actually one of the closets analogs we have for this upcoming storm. Thinking it will be fairly similar to that.
nash on the way to work tomorrow



Orleans Parish

Winter Storm Warning

Statement as of 1:40 PM CST on January 27, 2014

... Winter Storm Warning in effect from 6 am Tuesday to 6 am CST
Wednesday...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a Winter
Storm Warning for ice and snow accumulations... which is in effect
from 6 am Tuesday to 6 am CST Wednesday. The Winter Storm Watch is
no longer in effect.

* Timing... a wintry mix of precipitation could begin as early as
daybreak Tuesday morning... with the heaviest precipitation
expected from midday Tuesday into Tuesday night.

* Impacts... precipitation will begin in the form of freezing rain
across the entire area. Precipitation will slowly transition to
sleet and snow generally north of the Interstate 10 corridor
during the afternoon and evening. Ice accumulations of one
quarter of an inch can be expected in all locations with
accumulations possibly nearing one half inch south of Lake
Pontchartrain and in the metropolitan New Orleans area. Snow
amounts of one to three inches with locally higher amounts are
possible especially in southwest Mississippi and the adjacent
Louisiana parishes. Elsewhere in the warned area... snow amounts
of near to less than one inch are expected. In addition... a hard
freeze is likely on Wednesday morning across the entire area and
wind chill values in the single digits are possible on Tuesday
night and early Wednesday morning.

* Main impact... driving conditions will become especially
hazardous beginning by daybreak tomorrow morning through mid-
morning. Hazardous conditions will persist throughout the day on
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Since temperatures will not rise
above freezing for any significant period of time... hazardous
driving conditions are likely to persist into Wednesday. In
addition... ice accumulations of a quarter of an inch has the
potential to cause significant problems with power lines and
tree limbs becoming too heavy to maintain their integrity.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow... sleet...
and ice are expected or occurring. Strong winds are also possible.
This will make travel very hazardous or impossible.



98/so
Quoting 225. Drakoen:


I think Atlanta is in a good spot to get 1-3 in.




even the NAM keeps the 1" line barely at atlanta so I'm not sold though I think it could happen



unfortunately I'm north of Atlanta
Quoting 259. ricderr:
nash on the way to work tomorrow





LOL!! Yeah Ric. That would pretty much be accurate were I dumb enough to trot out in an ice storm.
Quoting 258. Drakoen:


That is actually one of the closets analogs we have for this upcoming storm. Thinking it will be fairly similar to that.
I better get a shovel ready then.......
wouldnt it be great to see severe wx in 9 days?



not great right now but has potential
Quoting 261. GeorgiaStormz:




even the NAM keeps the 1" line barely at atlanta so I'm not sold though I think it could happen



unfortunately I'm north of Atlanta


Hey Stormz, Macon, Ga here, will keep you posted as to what happens here. :)
Quoting 256. nrtiwlnvragn:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
332 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2014


Excerpt:

Although our forecast snow and ice amounts are mostly below our
local criteria for a Winter Storm Warning, we have decided to go
with a warning to avoid confusion (between neighboring WFOs and
from our previously worded watch). It`s also possible that
isolated amounts (either ice or snow) may exceed our local warning
criteria. The main impact appears to be hazardous travel, but if
there as heavier icing than forecast, power outages could become a
problem. This would make people in non-winterized shelters (and
without true winter clothing) vulnerable to a prolonged period of
cold temperatures and low wind chills.


Link


Under a winter storm warning now
267. IKE
Event:Winter Storm WarningAlert:...WINTER STORM WARNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH GEORGIA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...

...COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING
AN ABRUPT END TO TODAYS WARM TEMPERATURES. COLD LIGHT RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE TEMPERATURE FALLS TO FREEZING. THE FREEZING LINE
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A THIN GLAZE OF
ICE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SLEET OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS...WHICH WILL BE WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM TIFTON TO DOTHAN
NORTHWARD. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE THE CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE LOWER...THOUGH A
TRACE OF SLEET OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS FLORIDA. THE
MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS EVEN WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE FREEZING
RAIN...AS EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS CAN SERIOUSLY DISRUPT LOCAL TRAVEL.

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EST /NOON CST/
TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EST /NOON CST/
TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH
IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF
AN INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SLEET OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM GENEVA
TO TIFTON. ELSEWHERE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH.

* MAIN IMPACT...ICY ROADS AND BRIDGES WILL MAKE DRIVING HAZARDOUS.
EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS OF ICING CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL IN THE DEEP SOUTH.

* OTHER IMPACTS...IF THERE IS MORE FREEZING RAIN THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...POWER OUTAGES COULD BECOME A CONCERN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.Instructions:A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE...SLEET...OR
SNOW ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY
HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.Target Area:Central Walton
Holmes
Jackson
North Walton
Washington
NWS, Wilmington, NC..from their latest briefing..

Forecast challenge: Many model scenarios exist. A lot will come down to the strength of a “warm nose” of low level air (yellow arrow) that will stream into the area from the Gulf of Mexico

guys..basically if you are in the warning or advisory areas....prepare for the worst and hope for the best..
Quoting 194. drg0dOwnCountry:
What is happening now is that Arctic air is penetrating much farther south than it used to be a couple of years ago. Yes, there are colder Winter's in the past but now we can almost see this kind of extreme cold every winter. And so far colds are not really record breaking, but it wouldn't surprise me if they were during this kind of cold outbreaks. And it affects the entire Northern Hemisphere and another result is that warmer air is taken place in parts of the Arctic instead.



A dangerous and weather-wrecking polar heat amplification in the Arctic set off by human-caused global warming keeps kicking into higher and higher gear…

What models predicted earlier this week and what we reported on Thursday has finally happened. A major influx of record-breaking winter warmth has flooded into the high Arctic, disrupting the polar vortex to the point that it is currently ripped in twain
.





Point 1. This kind of jet stream amplification and deep penetration of arctic air south and tropical air north, has happened in the past and is a reliable and often repeating part of boreal winter climatology. Superimposed on an undeniable warming trend and reduction of meridional temperature gradient, we've also been somewhat lucky in not having such an amplified and persistant pattern for some years. (although for
Florida. both 2009010 and 2010-11 were worse) This winter our luck has run out.

Point 2. I am increasingly coming to the conclusion that we just can't get the kind of intense arctic outbreak with -40 at 850mb penetrating the CONUS., that we got in the 20'th century (Jan 10 1982 for example) any more. We are pretty much getting the best Siberia and Canada can send our way now. (Counterargument, both regions have been tapped for export elsewhere, to us, all winter and arctic air has not built up as much as some winters)
Winter storm warnings up in Georgia!!! here we go!! its time to go shopping people if you live in Georgia my friends
Raleigh Wx Office has issued winter storm warning for old watch zone + 1-2 counties west and north.
Quoting 264. GeorgiaStormz:
wouldnt it be great to see severe wx in 9 days?



not great right now but has potential

What is this? Another winter weather event??
Quoting 271. snow2fire:
Raleigh Wx Office has issued winter storm warning for old watch zone + 1-2 counties west and north.


I just spoke to some friends in Raleigh and they had no idea of a potential winter storm..I fear this may catch a lot of people off guard..
i got some pics im posting in a few to show you guys the last ice storm we had on friday in Nola
275. VR46L
CPC 6 -10 days looks like winter is keeping its grip on much of US ...




and even more for the 8 -14 day one


Ice Storm Warnings being issued in South Carolina now...
Quoting 273. ncstorm:


I just spoke to some friends in Raleigh and they had no idea of a potential winter storm..I fear this may catch a lot of people off guard..


Yep. I knew I didn't like the look of that last NAM model. Greg Fischel was right about his concerns in the days leading up to this - again.
Here we go! Got this email: my college is canceled!!

Northwest Florida State College Cancels Tuesday, January 28th Classes

NICEVILLE, FL- Due to an expected winter storm, Northwest Florida State College will cancel day and evening classes and close administrative offices at all locations on Tuesday, January 28th.

The administration will monitor weather conditions and make a decision about classes and operations by 4pm tomorrow, concerning classes and operations for Wednesday, January 29th.

Updates will be made available through www.nwfsc.edu and the colleges social media outlets- Facebook and Twitter.
279. VR46L
Quoting 274. bigwes6844:
i got some pics im posting in a few to show you guys the last ice storm we had on friday in Nola


Hiya Wes Long Time no see .! Thought you hibernate for winter ?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 279. VR46L:


Hiya Wes Long Time no see .! Thought you hibernate for winter ?
lol i been lurking ill see u on the new blog
Quoting 269. georgevandenberghe:



Point 1. This kind of jet stream amplification and deep penetration of arctic air south and tropical air north, has happened in the past and is a reliable and often repeating part of boreal winter climatology. Superimposed on an undeniable warming trend and reduction of meridional temperature gradient, we've also been somewhat lucky in not having such an amplified and persistant pattern for some years. (although for
Florida. both 2009010 and 2010-11 were worse) This winter our luck has run out.

Point 2. I am increasingly coming to the conclusion that we just can't get the kind of intense arctic outbreak with -40 at 850mb penetrating the CONUS., that we got in the 20'th century (Jan 10 1982 for example) any more. We are pretty much getting the best Siberia and Canada can send our way now. (Counterargument, both regions have been tapped for export elsewhere, to us, all winter and arctic air has not built up as much as some winters)


This is a very new phenomena when the jet stream weakens. Today the polar vortex is behaving differently. Because of less sea ice. If we look at today sea ice...




The big question is, what happens with more sea ice lost? More persistence - more anomalies (cold in the south, warm in the north during winter and more blocking -stalled weather systems in summer?)?
tstorm over puerto rico on aweather

doesnt work well, but it seems like a good starting point to build a program on if someone wanted to.



Winter storm warning in effect for Southeast TX ans SW Louisiana.

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR...WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES FORECAST ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THIS CORRIDOR. ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A QUARTER-
INCH ARE FORECAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. NORTH OF THIS
CORRIDOR...LESSER ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

* IMPACTS...ANY ICE ACCUMULATION WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES. EXTREME CAUTION IS URGED IF TRAVEL IS NECESSARY
DURING THE WARNING PERIOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.
Quoting 264. GeorgiaStormz:
wouldnt it be great to see severe wx in 9 days?



not great right now but has potential
No.
Quoting 277. snow2fire:


Yep. I knew I didn't like the look of that last NAM model. Greg Fischel was right about his concerns in the days leading up to this - again.


Another name from the past. I knew him as an older (compared to me) undergraduate at Penn State and he was a superb forecaster back then,
much better than I ever turned out. I bailed on forecasting two years later realizing others were better at it and I was better at other things.

No regrets. I've done all right.
Quoting 141. Jedkins01:


The chance of seeing at least a little looks good, but models have decreased overall snow totals for TLH down to around a quarter inch falling with the backside of the precip shield during the afternoon on Wednesday.

Still though, we will have to just watch it closely as it unfolds. with heavier accumulations not far to the northwest, A colder atmospheric profile with depth than currently depicted by the models could easily occur over our area given the tight gradient and lack of forecast confidence.
We have a tendency to get caught up in forecast models during unfolding weather events.

With a generally low confidence situation (in this case it might be very low confidence) you can expect the "windshield wiper effect" to continue right up to the last minute. For you know (and all anyone knows) Tallahassee could wind up with several inches of snow on the ground by Wednesday morning, it could wind up with not a trace of anything frozen at all, a little bit of a wintry mix or all freezing rain.

If I were you, I would picture myself wearing one of those T-shirts that they sell at ski resorts: "Think Snow!" And then I would just hope for the best and give the forecast models a rest. Otherwise it can cause one to go crazy. Just sayin'
Quoting 240. nash36:
Not sure what CHS is waiting for here.....

New Orleans is under a WSW, but we're still under a watch?? Today guys....pretty sure this warrants a warning.

It's more about timing than it is certainty.
Quoting 241. neonlazer:


South central LA is not even under a watch till tomorrow morning. Talk about difference between jumping the gun and falling asleep at the desk. Lol

That's normal for these longer duration watches. The times that the watch is in effect for correspond to the estimated time of inclement weather.
Quoting 242. GeorgiaStormz:
WSW to my south

btw anyone heard of Aweather? Cool radar program, seems like whoever started it stopped working on it halfway through.

Link

Quoting 283. GeorgiaStormz:
tstorm over puerto rico on aweather

doesnt work well, but it seems like a good starting point to build a program on if someone wanted to.




You get what you pay for, or in this case, don't pay for. As a free application, it probably works, but won't work as well as the for-pay radar applications like GR2Analyst.
Afternoon all.

Quoting 201. FLGatorCaneNut:


NEVER PUMP if you have ABS brakes !!
Fascinating. I do know that if you slam, you will aquaplane on 1/8 inch of water. [Speaking from experience] I am assuming the same happens on ice. I am assuming a gentle pressing action is in order?
"Munising had a temperature of -2°F at 8am EST, and the winds off of Lake Superior were 17 mph gusting to 22 mph, creating a wind chill of -23°. Heavy lake effect snow was creating whiteout conditions, and a blizzard warning is in effect for much of the Michigan shore of Lake Superior, for snowfall amounts of up to six inches. The snows would be much greater, but Lake Superior is mostly frozen over."

I read this this morning and chuckled to myself that this sounds so much like a New England viewpoint: "Could be worse!" ;-)
it is a dark and foggy night in the suwannee river valley. temperture, 58f.
Entergy sent a text this evening saying to prepare for outages that could last 3-5 days. I'm in Baton Rouge, and I just can't comprehend that it's really going to get that bad?! Will there really be that much ice that the power goes out?
Quoting 293. truecajun:
Entergy sent a text this evening saying to prepare for outages that could last 3-5 days. I'm in Baton Rouge, and I just can't comprehend that it's really going to get that bad?! Will there really be that much ice that the power goes out?
They are probably telling people there to prepare for it just in case it does happen..this way folks dont get caught off guard..