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U.S. Cold Blast WInds Down, Fails to Set Any All-Time Cold Records

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:00 PM GMT on January 08, 2014

The remarkable Arctic cold blast that brought dangerously cold wind chills of -30°F or lower to at least nineteen states is winding down today. Tuesday's high temperature in Detroit struggled to just -1°F. It was just the fourth time in recorded history that the high temperature had failed to reach zero. In Buffalo, New York, Tuesday's epic lake effect blizzard dumped 12.6" of snow on the city, with up to 25" falling in nearby regions. Another 2 - 3" are expected on Wednesday as the winds over Lake Erie wind down and temperatures warm up. Temperatures will moderate to levels about 10 - 20° below normal on Wednesday, in contrast to the 20 - 40° below normal temperatures commonly observed on Monday and Tuesday over large portions of the eastern half of the United States. By Friday, the majority of the U.S. will see above normal temperatures, and by Saturday, high temperatures will be up to 40°F warmer than Tuesday's highs over much of the Midwest.


Figure 1. Arctic air flowing over the Lake Erie on January 7, 2014 created two major bands of lake-effect snow snow near Buffalo, New York. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. For those of you who have to be texting out in the cold, there's always the texting mitt sold by FE Clothing.

Not a Historic Cold Wave
As notable as this week's cold wave was--bringing the coldest air seen since 1996 or 1994 over much of the nation--the event failed to set any monthly or all-time record low minimum temperature records at airports and cooperative observing stations monitored by NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. As wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt summed it up for me, "The only significant thing about the cold wave is how long it has been since a cold wave of this force has hit for some portions of the country--18 years, to be specific. Prior to 1996, cold waves of this intensity occurred pretty much every 5-10 years. In the 19th century, they occurred every year or two (since 1835). Something that, unlike the cold wave, is a truly unprecedented is the dry spell in California and Oregon, which is causing unprecedented winter wildfires in Northern California." Part of the reason that this week's cold wave did not set any all-time or monthly cold records is that it is becoming increasingly difficult to do so in a warming climate. As Andrew Freedman of Climate Central wrote in a blog post yesterday, "While the cold temperatures have been unusual and even deadly, climate data shows that intense cold such as this event is now occurring far less frequently in the continental U.S. than it used to. This is largely related to winter warming trends due to man-made global warming and natural climate variability." For example, in Detroit during the 1970s, there were an average of 7.9 nights with temperatures below zero. But this decade, that number has been closer to two nights.


Figure 3. Trend in frigid nights in Detoit from the 1970s to the most recent decade. Yellow line indicates linear trend since 1970. Image credit: Andrew Freedman, Climate Central

Jeff Masters
Frozen Lemonade Anyone?
Frozen Lemonade Anyone?
Some citrus that I didn't pick before the freeze
Iced blueberry farm... rare site in Florida!
Iced blueberry farm... rare site in Florida!
Sun Dogs
Sun Dogs
This cold spell is producing some amazing sights. Too bad it's too cold to go out anywere. I braved the cold for just a few seconds to get this one. We're not used to minus temps around here.
Iceberg Nebraska Style
Iceberg Nebraska Style
I went out to take sunset photos today. The clouds were gathering quite nicely. While I was waiting, I took a few
THE BIG DIG
THE BIG DIG
This is what I call a major snow drift!

Winter Weather Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Doc !
Thank you Dr. Masters.... A texting mitt? Got to be kidding
Thanks Doc.
Thanks Doc.........................
Short Term Forecast

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1021 AM EST WED JAN 8 2014

AMZ630-650-651-670-671-FLZ066>075-168-172>174-GMZ 656-657-081800-
BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-
METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-
METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-
COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
1021 AM EST WED JAN 8 2014

.NOW...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD ALONG THE EAST COAST BY
THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH.

$$
http://bostonherald.com/news_opinion/columnists/how ie_carr/2014/01/carr_hellish_cold_frosts_believers
Thanks Doctor Masters!
Good post, Doc. I actually blogged about the decrease in extreme cold in the lower Great Lakes region back in 2012: Link.

This cold snap saw temps at the regional airport drop to -12F, which drops the decadal average for annual minimum temperature (2010-2014) to -1.8F.

This compares to -7.9F (1960-1969), -8.6F (1970-1979), -11.3F (1980-1989), -3.5F (1990-1999), and -2.3F (2000-2009). The thirty-year average for the period 1960-1989 saw an average annual extreme minima of -9.3F, compared to the most recent 25 years (1990-2014) of -2.7F.

In the 1990 Plant Hardiness Map, northeast Ohio was zone 5B (denoting minimum temps of -10F to -15F). This was updated in 2012 to Zone 6A (denoting minimum temps of -5 to -10F), but really over the last 25 years, the data is solidly Zone 6B (minimum temps of 0 to -5F).

To really put this in perspective, however, consider that it's been 20 years since temps have reached or exceeded the current value of -12F. In the 18 years before that (1977-1994), each of the following winters had at least one occurrence (and in some cases multiple occurrences) of a minimum of -12F or lower: 1977, 1979, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1989, and 1994.
I just wonder what the global warming contrarians will say when the equatorial vortex shows up this summer :)
Quoting 6. MoeHoward:
http://bostonherald.com/news_opinion/columnists/h ow ie_carr/2014/01/carr_hellish_cold_frosts_believers
Sorry , Have to do it...Hey Moe, Hey Moe,... Yuk, Yuk, Yuk
Thank you Dr. Masters.

Cold front here in the Bahamas has officially become a warm front. It's gaining latitude
National Hurricane Center to use test storm surge maps during 2014 hurricane season

Excerpt:

The National Hurricane Center will issue maps showing potential flooding from storm surges during tropical storms and hurricanes on a trial basis during the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season that begins June 1, to warn residents of dangers other than wind associated with the storms, center Director Rick Knabb said Tuesday (Jan. 7).

Knabb made the announcement during a panel discussion on efforts by the center and the National Weather Service to move away from focusing on hurricane or tornado categories in public messages, and instead emphasizing information that helps the public understand specific risks posed by the weather systems.



Bolded part by me....
Thanks, Dr. Masters.
--

At this time, instability looks to be the biggest deterrent for a substantial severe weather risk this weekend, in part because better lapse rates will be located north and west of the risk area. With a few days of return flow, dewpoints should at least get into the 60s. The LLJ is quite strong with this trough, but they don't veer adequately with height for me to say there's the potential for supercells yet. Looks like a squall line with damaging winds as the main issue.
This could very well be the natural cyclical pattern.
Potential Winter Storm DJ(?) looking stronger this run.

Looking at the GFS, they might get some cool storms in the south this Friday through Saturday,
Quoting 14. opal92nwf:
This all seems very cyclical.


That will liven the blog up ;)


Anyway Ian

Cute Cyclone that doesn't want to hurt anyone



Thanks Dr. One source that you cited ("While the cold temperatures have been unusual and even deadly, climate data shows that intense cold such as this event is now occurring far less frequently in the continental U.S. than it used to) supports my layman's observation (for Florida anyway) I have mentioned on here about the much milder winters I have seen here in the 80s-90s-2000's as opposed to the colder ones we frequently experienced in the 60's and 70's.

Since moving to Tallahassee in 2001, our yard full of Azalia bushes has been blooming weeks earlier in recent years than when we first got here and the last few "winters" in North Florida have been a piece of cake until this current Arctic blast (that we normally don't get until around February).
thanks for the lunch time read doc like the sun dogs picture and that text mitt is pretty cool as well


see we can adapt
Quoting 14. opal92nwf:
This could very well be the natural cyclical pattern.
Yes, it is part of the natural cyclical pattern. However, as Dr. Masters and WU weather historian Christopher Burt pointed out, the "natural patterns" are changing/evolving as they always have, and AGW/CC may be influencing that process.

This all gets back to the necessity of not ascribing individual weather events to AGW/CC, but looking at the longer term trends. And the longer term trend seems to be fewer of these extremely cold polar vortex events - as might be expected from the influence of AGW/CC.
Quoting FunnelVortex:
Looking at the GFS, they might get some cool storms in the south this Friday through Saturday,


So maybe some snow and ice then?
next system

nam 12z sim rad fr hr 57 to hr 84

Flood Warning
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1105 AM EST WED JAN 8 2014

NJC021-PAC017-090900-
/O.CON.KPHI.FA.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140109T0900Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
MERCER NJ-BUCKS PA-
1105 AM EST WED JAN 8 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
SOUTHEASTERN BUCKS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MERCER COUNTIES...

AT 1100 AM EST...AN ICE JAM WAS REPORTED ON THE DELAWARE RIVER ABOUT
ONE MILE SOUTH OF THE ROUTE 1 BRIDGE. WATER LEVELS HAVE RISEN ABOUT
6 FEET IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. WHILE IT`S UNCERTAIN THAT THE TRENTON
RIVER GAGE, WHICH IS LOCATED ABOVE THE CALHOUN STREET BRIDGE, WILL
HIT FLOOD STAGE AT 20 FEET, FLOODING IS EXPECTED FROM THE JAM ITSELF
UP TO THE CALHOUN STREET BRIDGE.

FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED AT ROUTE 29 AND MARKET STREET. FLOODING
HAS ALSO BEEN REPORTED AT THE LOWER STATE HOUSE PARKING LOT ADJACENT
TO THE RIVER.

PRECAUTIONARY EVACUATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 4024 7485 4026 7482 4017 7471 4014 7472

$$

KRUZDLO
It's telling that the cold blast did not break any records, the climate was too warm to begin with.
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 12:00 PM EST Wednesday 8 January 2014
Condition:Partly Cloudy
Pressure:30.4 inches
Tendency:rising
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:13.3°F
Dewpoint:2.8°F
Humidity:63%Wind:SW 15 mph
Wind Chill: -2
Plenty of records were broken. I think he meant no all-time records broken?

List of record low temperatures set Tuesday
by the end of next week another cold blast in the winds

Quoting 21. Thunderfan:


So maybe some snow and ice then?


I meant the OTHER kind of cool.
Quoting 29. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
by the end of next week another cold blast in the winds



Not nearly as bad as the last one, though.
Quoting 28. Thunderfan:
Plenty of records were broken. I think he meant no all-time records broken?

List of record low temperatures set Tuesday

Yeah, that's what he noted.

"As notable as this week's cold wave was--bringing the coldest air seen since 1996 or 1994 over much of the nation--the event failed to set any monthly or all-time record low minimum temperature records at airports and cooperative observing stations monitored by NOAA's National Climatic Data Center."
I was looking at figure 1 of the lake affect snow bands covering the north east and south east portions of Lake Erie. I live in Port Colborne Ontario, right smack dab in the middle of that northern band of snow. My family and I were bored of being holed up in the house so for about 10 minutes we ventured out in the back yard. Here's some video's we took of what it was like out there yesterday afternoon.

Extreme winter disc golf

Quoting 32. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, that's what he noted.

"As notable as this week's cold wave was--bringing the coldest air seen since 1996 or 1994 over much of the nation--the event failed to set any monthly or all-time record low minimum temperature records at airports and cooperative observing stations monitored by NOAA's National Climatic Data Center."


You mean Global Warming is not over? I thought all the arguments were going to go away.
Quoting 12. nrtiwlnvragn:
National Hurricane Center to use test storm surge maps during 2014 hurricane season

Excerpt:

The National Hurricane Center will issue maps showing potential flooding from storm surges during tropical storms and hurricanes on a trial basis during the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season that begins June 1, to warn residents of dangers other than wind associated with the storms, center Director Rick Knabb said Tuesday (Jan. 7).

Knabb made the announcement during a panel discussion on efforts by the center and the National Weather Service to move away from focusing on hurricane or tornado categories in public messages, and instead emphasizing information that helps the public understand specific risks posed by the weather systems.



Bolded part by me....
this flood surge info may be a good idea for them to do if the oceans are indeed rising like some say they are
Estimates of how much the sea will rise vary, but even conservative projections point to mean sea level rising by about 3 feet by the end of the century, Chambers said.

That may sound far off, but the effects will likely be felt much sooner.

Higher tides will accelerate erosion of beaches and the deterioration of sea walls, raps and groins. Salt water will penetrate deeper into groundwater, making freshwater springs undrinkable and causing more backflows of sewage systems.

Flooding from storm surges and high-tide events will become more frequent, too.

“It’s not going to be an isolated event,” Chambers said. “It will be every single year.”
Quoting FunnelVortex:


I meant the OTHER kind of cool.


I prefer the other kind of cool. Much warmer.
Is YOUR city/town at risk with sea level rise??...cool site here..Link
Quoting 34. Grothar:


You mean Global Warming is not over? I thought all the arguments were going to go away.
Just one more year Gro...Almost over. Marking down on my calendar
Beginings of DJ?

You mean Global Warming is not over? I thought all the arguments were going to go away.



groth....we all know that this event was the signal of the new mini ice age..... :-)
well my house is safe even from a 10 foot sea rise...........but the beaches and the beach communitiies are gone...
Quoting 43. LargoFl:
well my house is safe even from a 10 foot sea rise...........but the beaches and the beach communitiies are gone...


Sometimes I am glad I live in the central area of the continent.
Quoting 42. ricderr:
You mean Global Warming is not over? I thought all the arguments were going to go away.



groth....we all know that this event was the signal of the new mini ice age..... :-)
dont laugh so hard, if GW gets too far gone it will make the jet stream AND ocean currents change scientists have said...hope everyone stayed warm..some places were bone chilling
Quoting 44. FunnelVortex:


Sometimes I am glad I live in the central area of the continent.
yes maybe all three coastlines will get hit, but its so far in the future..most of us here today posting wont be around to see it..3 foot rise by end of century..most area's can handle that, but now a hurricane coming in on tiop of that..oh boy
dont laugh so hard, if GW gets too far gone it will make the jet stream AND ocean currents change scientists have said.



if you get the chance spend some time looking at how many scientists think north america will fare.....we won't be the food producer that we are today
Thanks Dr. Masters...Good afternoon all!

I see that the temps are moving to the upside.

Quoting 11. Thrawst:
Thank you Dr. Masters.

Cold front here in the Bahamas has officially become a warm front. It's gaining latitude

Hi Thrawst!

I think that it's weakening. It has been stationary for sometime now due to the subtropical high and the high over eastern US.
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.

Cool here this morning, low was 45.7F and it is currently 54.5F. Forecast is 68 (WU)

Quoting 47. ricderr:
dont laugh so hard, if GW gets too far gone it will make the jet stream AND ocean currents change scientists have said.



if you get the chance spend some time looking at how many scientists think north america will fare.....we won't be the food producer that we are today
The Future of the Gulf Stream
Although there are no definitive answers, it is believed that the Gulf Stream could be in the future or is already being impacted by global warming and the melting of glaciers. Some studies suggest that with the melting of ice in places like Greenland, cold, dense water will flow into the ocean and disrupt the flow of the Gulf Stream and other currents that are part of the Global Conveyor Belt. If this were to happen, weather patterns worldwide could change.
Recently, there has been evidence that the Gulf Stream is weakening and slowing and there is growing concern about what impacts such a change would have on the world’s climate. Some reports suggest that without the Gulf Stream, temperatures in England and northwestern Europe could drop by 4-6°C.

These are the most dramatic of the predictions for the future of the Gulf Stream but they, as well as today’s climate patterns surrounding the current, show its importance to life in many places around the world.
Thanks Jeff. I've never need to text that bad...
The powerful ocean current that bathes Britain and northern Europe in warm waters from the tropics has weakened dramatically in recent years, a consequence of global warming that could trigger more severe winters and cooler summers across the region, scientists warn today.

Researchers on a scientific expedition in the Atlantic Ocean measured the strength of the current between Africa and the east coast of America and found that the circulation has slowed by 30% since a previous expedition 12 years ago.

The current, which drives the Gulf Stream, delivers the equivalent of 1m power stations-worth of energy to northern Europe, propping up temperatures by 10C in some regions. The researchers found that the circulation has weakened by 6m tonnes of water a second. Previous expeditions to check the current flow in 1957, 1981 and 1992 found only minor changes in its strength, although a slowing was picked up in a further expedition in 1998. The decline prompted the scientists to set up a £4.8m network of moored instruments in the Atlantic to monitor changes in the current continuously.

The network should also answer the pressing question of whether the significant weakening of the current is a short-term variation, or part of a more devastating long-term slowing of the flow.

If the current remains as weak as it is, temperatures in Britain are likely to drop by an average of 1C in the next decade, according to Harry Bryden at the National Oceanography Centre in Southampton who led the study. "Models show that if it shuts down completely, 20 years later, the temperature is 4C to 6C degrees cooler over the UK and north-western Europe," Dr Bryden said.

Although climate records suggest that the current has ground to a halt in the distant past, the prospect of it shutting down entirely within the century are extremely low, according to climate modellers.

The current is essentially a huge oceanic conveyor belt that transports heat from equatorial regions towards the Arctic circle. Warm surface water coming up from the tropics gives off heat as it moves north until eventually, it cools so much in northern waters that it sinks and circulates back to the south. There it warms again, rises and heads back north. The constant sinking in the north and rising in the south drives the conveyor.

Global warming weakens the circulation because increased meltwater from Greenland and the Arctic icesheets along with greater river run-off from Russia pour into the northern Atlantic and make it less saline which in turn makes it harder for the cooler water to sink, in effect slowing down the engine that drives the current.

The researchers measured the strength of the current at a latitude of 25 degrees N and found that the volume of cold, deep water returning south had dropped by 30%. At the same time, they measured a 30% increase in the amount of surface water peeling off early from the main northward current, suggesting far less was continuing up to Britain and the rest of Europe. The report appears in the journal Nature today.

Disruption of the conveyor-belt current was the basis of the film The Day After Tomorrow, which depicted a world thrown into chaos by a sudden and dramatic drop in temperatures. That scenario was dismissed by researchers as fantasy, because climate models suggest that the current is unlikely to slow so suddenly.

Marec Srokosz of the National Oceanographic Centre said: "The most realistic part of the film is where the climatologists are talking to the politicians and the politicians are saying 'we can't do anything about it'."

Chris West, director of the UK climate impacts programme at Oxford University's centre for the environment, said: "The only way computer models have managed to simulate an entire shutdown of the current is to magic into existence millions of tonnes of fresh water and dump it in the Atlantic. It's not clear where that water could ever come from, even taking into account increased Greenland melting."

Uncertainties in climate change models mean that the overall impact on Britain of a slowing down in the current are hard to pin down. "We know that if the current slows down, it will lead to a drop in temperatures in Britain and northern Europe of a few degrees, but the effect isn't even over the seasons. Most of the cooling would be in the winter, so the biggest impact would be much colder winters," said Tim Osborn, of the University of East Anglia climatic research unit.

The final impact of any cooling effect will depend on whether it outweighs the global warming that, paradoxically, is driving it. According to climate modellers, the drop in temperature caused by a slowing of the Atlantic current will, in the long term, be swamped by a more general warming of the atmosphere.

"If this was happening in the absence of generally increasing temperatures, I would be concerned," said Dr Smith. Any cooling driven by a weakening of the Atlantic current would probably only slow warming rather than cancel it out all together. Even if a slowdown in the current put the brakes on warming over Britain and parts of Europe, the impact would be felt more extremely elsewhere, he said.
Hodographs with the next trough

Unfortunately instability is MIA

Central AL


Central GA
This image doesn't give it justice, but it has been a miserable, rainy. cold, gloomy, windy past few days. I guess we should consider ourselves lucky, but it is lousy. It is so overcast, it is like Trenton, NJ



so IF we keep reading about the gulf stream and its possible slow down or change in direction..Global Warming could indeed over time..make the northern hemisphere much colder in winter, cooler in summer,and IF that should continue...oh boy...people hear and think of GW as just the earth getting a bit warmer..in fact..it could turn out to be life changing over the decades to come..
well its over 50 here now..the slooooow warmup continues
Quoting 54. GeorgiaStormz:
Hodographs with the next trough

Unfortunately instability is MIA

Central AL


Central GA
It's just not spring yet. You need lot of surface heat energy to create good instability conditions and it haven't been warm that long yet.
53. LargoFl 6:06 PM GMT on January 08, 2014

I posted on this subject a couple years ago. One could even see the difference in the current and surrounding water. The Earths climate in my opinion is similar in complexity to a Swiss watch. The Gulf stream is vastly underestimated considering the amounts of water and energy.

Evolution of the Gulf Stream to the west of Ireland continuing as the North Atlantic Current
The Gulf Stream is typically 100 kilometres (62 mi) wide and 800 metres (2,600 ft) to 1,200 metres (3,900 ft) deep. The current velocity is fastest near the surface, with the maximum speed typically about 2.5 metres per second (5.6 mph). As it travels north, the warm water transported by the Gulf Stream undergoes evaporative cooling. The cooling is wind-driven: Wind moving over the water causes evaporation, cooling the water and increasing its salinity and density. When sea ice forms, salts are left out of the ice, a process known as brine exclusion. These two processes produce water that is denser and colder (or, more precisely, water that is still liquid at a lower temperature). In the North Atlantic Ocean, the water becomes so dense that it begins to sink down through less salty and less dense water. (The convective action is not unlike that of a lava lamp.) This downdraft of cold, dense water becomes a part of the North Atlantic Deep Water, a southgoing stream. Very little seaweed lies within the current, although seaweed lies in clusters to its east.
No surface low and and no instability = wonderful warm sector helicity going to waste



Quoting 52. NttyGrtty:
Thanks Jeff. I've never need to text that bad...
Got that right Mr. Bojangles....It's a young person's obsession
Quoting 59. Bluestorm5:
It's just not spring yet. You need lot of surface heat energy to create good instability conditions and it haven't been warm that long yet.


We really only need 500 j/kg... a good surface low pulling warmth from the tropics would help..

We shouldnt get more than 1000 in january very often.
Quoting 25. MahFL:
It's telling that the cold blast did not break any records, the climate was too warm to begin with.

That this event even happened is a sign of GW. That it didn't set any all time records is a sign of GW. Unreal.
Quoting 55. Grothar:
This image doesn't give it justice, but it has been a miserable, rainy. cold, gloomy, windy past few days. I guess we should consider ourselves lucky, but it is lousy. It is so overcast, it is like Trenton, NJ



Miserable, cloudy day here, just up the road from Gro
Quoting 55. Grothar:
This image doesn't give it justice, but it has been a miserable, rainy. cold, gloomy, windy past few days. I guess we should consider ourselves lucky, but it is lousy. It is so overcast, it is like Trenton, NJ



Not typical January weather for South Florida to be sure. I believe you folks will see more of this than usual for 2014..Greetings Gro
Quoting 57. LargoFl:
so IF we keep reading about the gulf stream and its possible slow down or change in direction..Global Warming could indeed over time..make the northern hemisphere much colder in winter, cooler in summer,and IF that should continue...oh boy...people hear and think of GW as just the earth getting a bit warmer..in fact..it could turn out to be life changing over the decades to come..


Yes, this would be a very catastrophic outcome for heavy populated Europe, if AGW/CC would stop the flow of the Gulf Stream (and that's one reason I would not like it to happen!!).


Source.

Look how far north (Western) Europe is on latitude in comparison to the US/Canada. That we can live f.e. in Germany quite comfortable since the last ice age (and the more in the UK) is due to the gulf stream.

Edit: My town Mainz and especially my flat is exactly on 50 degrees north. It's marked nearby in the center of the city (current weather: very, very balmy - too balmy - with birds already singing in the dark of early morning and evening, lol).

And yes, good evening everybody!
Quoting LargoFl:
so IF we keep reading about the gulf stream and its possible slow down or change in direction..Global Warming could indeed over time..make the northern hemisphere much colder in winter, cooler in summer,and IF that should continue...oh boy...people hear and think of GW as just the earth getting a bit warmer..in fact..it could turn out to be life changing over the decades to come..


In many ways, it sounds like Maw Nature healing itself. If we artificially warm up the planet, then Maw Nature's antibodies kick in and cool off man's infection.
EVEN WITH THE VERY IMPRESSIVE
140 KT 250 MB JET OVER THE MID STATE ON 12Z SATURDAY MORNING.
HEALTHY OMEGA FIELDS AND AMPLE MOISTURE (PWAT OF 1.47 ON 00Z GFS
FORECAST SOUNDING) SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST A HEAVY RAIN EVENT IF
NOTHING ELSE. RIGHT NOW...THE LOW LEVELS ARE ABOUT AS STABLE AS YOU
CAN GET
WHICH MAKES SEVERE POTENTIAL NEGLIGIBLE BUT ENOUGH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL LIFTING AND POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ADVECTION SHOULD GIVE US A SIGNIFICANT RAINER. RIGHT NOW...HAVE ONLY
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE QPF VALUES WHICH RANGE FROM 1-1.5 INCHES
ACROSS THE MIDSTATE FOR 00Z SAT TO 00Z SUN. IF THIS SYSTEM
SLOWS...GFS AND EURO SUGGEST THAT THIS MAY BE MORE LIKE 2-2.5
INCHES
Quoting 52. NttyGrtty:
Thanks Jeff. I've never need to text that bad...


It's about wants not needs.
Quoting 68. Thunderfan:


In many ways, it sounds like Maw Nature healing itself. If we artificially warm up the planet, then Maw Nature's antibodies kick in and cool off man's infection.
the currents are slowing because the arctic waters are warming

Quoting 70. GeorgiaStormz:


It's about wants not needs.


Well at least the person's phone will be protected when they slip and fall flat on their face or walk into a pole.
Quoting 32. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, that's what he noted.

"As notable as this week's cold wave was--bringing the coldest air seen since 1996 or 1994 over much of the nation--the event failed to set any monthly or all-time record low minimum temperature records at airports and cooperative observing stations monitored by NOAA's National Climatic Data Center."


Just remember Dr. M is a fierce promoter of Global Warming, and well, NOAA is a federal agency under the O administration, so you could expect for to say that, and still continue with their AGW argument to push their agenda. I respect their opinion, just don't subscribe to it. The problem s when regulation after regulation continue to be impose on this alreary frail country. and the EPA gaining more and more power is even more frightening. I don't see much of a good future for this country.
Quoting 63. GeorgiaStormz:


We really only need 500 j/kg... a good surface low pulling warmth from the tropics would help..

We shouldnt get more than 1000 in january very often.
looks nasty.
Quoting 66. hydrus:
Not typical January weather for South Florida to be sure. I believe you folks will see more of this than usual for 2014..Greetings Gro


Hey, hy! I hope not. We had one of the wettest years I can remember AND HOT! But by looking at the long range forecasting, you could very well be on the mark. Why is it that no one is really reporting on the situation in Australia? Where is Aussie when you need him. It is brutal down there. And to think, they have to endure this being upside down.

Quoting 58. LargoFl:
well its over 50 here now..the slooooow warmup continues


Just over 50. LOL It's 70 at my place. Not only is it warm but its getting humid as well. Also looks like some rain is forming near you Largo which maybe the cause of your temps being so low.

Sounds like MetOffice is attributing deep Jet Stream, possibly associated with Arctic amplification for cold wave, per report in New Scientist.
The AGW folks have been releasing a number of statements and articles explaining why AGW could have caused or on the opposite, reduced the occurrence of this type of Artic outbreak.

As my trusted financial advisor always says… hedge your bets.
71. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 6:41 PM GMT on January 08, 2014 +1

Quoting 68. Thunderfan:


In many ways, it sounds like Maw Nature healing itself. If we artificially warm up the planet, then Maw Nature's antibodies kick in and cool off man's infection.

the currents are slowing because the arctic waters are warming


Interesting. That is if one thinks of the ocean currents as the Earths circulatory system..



This map shows the pattern of thermohaline circulation also known as "meridional overturning circulation". This collection of currents is responsible for the large-scale exchange of water masses in the ocean, including providing oxygen to the deep ocean. The entire circulation pattern takes ~2000 years.
Quoting 75. Grothar:


Hey, hy! I hope not. We had one of the wettest years I can remember AND HOT! But by looking at the long range forecasting, you could very well be on the mark. Why is it that no one is really reporting on the situation in Australia? Where is Aussie when you need him. It is brutal down there. And to think, they have to endure this being upside down.



Hello Gro, hope you're well. Aussie is visiting his wife's family in the Philippines and tries to help in the aftermath of Haiyan. Sure Doc will have a blog about the record warm year in Australia soon (and it has been mentioned on the blog earlier, but not so often).
Quoting 75. Grothar:


Hey, hy! I hope not. We had one of the wettest years I can remember AND HOT! But by looking at the long range forecasting, you could very well be on the mark. Why is it that no one is really reporting on the situation in Australia? Where is Aussie when you need him. It is brutal down there. And to think, they have to endure this being upside down.

This has been going on down under with regularity for at least the past few years. Not like it has not happened before, but seems to be much more fierce as of lately.
I might finally see first snow of winter on January 15th/16th, although it'll be minor event. UNCA is located in 1 inch to 1.5 inches band on this map.

Quoting 64. PensacolaDoug:

That this event even happened is a sign of GW. That it didn't set any all time records is a sign of GW. Unreal.


Just be glad for GW Doug! Without it, over the past couple of days here in Pcola, we might have seen wind chills in the -40 range instead of 0 degrees.
This shows with detail what the worlds oceans do to climate.

Link
big warm up for the northeast this weekend
See, no matter what the weather is like, extremists will always find a way to attribute anomalies to Big Bad GW, caused by us mean evil humans. I think all GW scientists should go on a boat ride to the antarctic to investigate the climate and get stuck in ICE! LMBO
Quoting hydrus:
71. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 6:41 PM GMT on January 08, 2014 +1

Quoting 68. Thunderfan:


In many ways, it sounds like Maw Nature healing itself. If we artificially warm up the planet, then Maw Nature's antibodies kick in and cool off man's infection.

the currents are slowing because the arctic waters are warming


Interesting. That is if one thinks of the ocean currents as the Earths circulatory system..



This map shows the pattern of thermohaline circulation also known as "meridional overturning circulation". This collection of currents is responsible for the large-scale exchange of water masses in the ocean, including providing oxygen to the deep ocean. The entire circulation pattern takes ~2000 years.


Very good. That shows what I mean...
Rio de Janeiro basks in the heat
BBC weather video, 8 January 2014 Last updated at 16:29
In sharp contrast to the weather in North America, a heatwave has hit parts of South America with temperatures in Rio de Janeiro around the mid-30 Celsius.
Louise Lear has the details and explains why the United Kingdom won't be enduring the record breaking freezing conditions experienced in North America as the air mass crosses the Atlantic on its way to Europe.
Off Topic= Greg Maddux,Tom Glavine and Frank Thomas elected to Hall of Fame.
Quoting 91. Tropicsweatherpr:
Off Topic= Greg Maddux,Tom Glavine and Frank Thomas elected to Hall of Fame.


2013 Hall of Fame class might be the first class with players that I've seen on TV as a kid. Maddux was filthy when he was pitching for Cubs as 38 year old man. I saw both Glavine and Thomas still doing well in their late years... and of course I grew up seeing these three managers in the dugout during 2000s, especially Tony La Russa.
Yes, I am one of those 90% guys... 90% of the time. Lol

Quoting 62. PalmBeachWeather:
Got that right Mr. Bojangles....It's a young person's obsession

A VERY good point. I don't text much when it's 85 either...
"... the event failed to set any monthly or all-time record low minimum temperature records at airports and cooperative observing stations monitored by NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. "

Why is it that wunderground's own page pulling data from the NCDC lists 184 records lows set from 1/6 to 1/8?

Link
It is called a blue moon if there a second full moon in one month.

How often is there a month with NO NEW MOON? Feb. has none.
Quoting 91. Tropicsweatherpr:
Off Topic= Greg Maddux,Tom Glavine and Frank Thomas elected to Hall of Fame.


Braves :)


Quoting 99. GeorgiaStormz:


Braves :)




It looks like another Braves pitcher will get in next year. (John Smoltz)
Remarkable coastal change from the recent UK storms
Prof. Petley's landslide blog, 8 January 2014
102. ARiot
Quoting 97. definer:
"... the event failed to set any monthly or all-time record low minimum temperature records at airports and cooperative observing stations monitored by NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. "

Why is it that wunderground's own page pulling data from the NCDC lists 184 records lows set from 1/6 to 1/8?

Link


There are daily record lows and there are all-time record lows.

Daily records are sometimes noteworthy. All-time records are much more rare.

Long trends of all-time and daily records are statistically significant.
Quoting 73. CaneHunter031472:


Just remember Dr. M is a fierce promoter of Global Warming,


He's not "promoting" it. Dr. M is an atmospheric scientist. He is discussing and disseminating the research on the topic, which considering his scientific background and interests makes sense. As opposed to you Mr. Random Blogger, which casts aspersions at anything you disagree with without providing a shred of credible evidence to back up your claims.

and well, NOAA is a federal agency under the O administration, so you could expect for to say that, and still continue with their AGW argument to push their agenda.


Do you think everyone here is a complete idiot? NOAA has been around for decades, and has done plenty of climate research during those decades, regardless of which administration was in office. Their results and message has been the consistent. It doesn't change based on who is president.

I respect their opinion, just don't subscribe to it.


An opinion is "I don't like the color blue". A theory is a well supported argument. AGW won't go away just because YOU don't think it is happening.

And further more, if both private companies and large government organizations like the DoD think the science is solid enough for creating and implementing future plans, you might just want to rethink your position.

The problem s when regulation after regulation continue to be impose on this alreary frail country. and the EPA gaining more and more power is even more frightening. I don't see much of a good future for this country.


I think car engines are good because pineapples are tasty. That's how much sense your statement makes.

Myself and others have said this many times: CLIMATE SCIENTISTS ARE NOT GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. THEY DO NOT MAKE POLICY. THEY DO NOT MAKE LAWS. IF YOU DO NOT LIKE THE POLICIES AND LAWS ENACTED BY THE GOVERNMENT IT IS YOUR RESPONSIBILITY TO VOTE/LOBBY/BRIBE/ETC. YOUR REPRESENTATIVES TO GET THE POLICIES AND LAWS CHANGED.
Quoting 97. definer:
"... the event failed to set any monthly or all-time record low minimum temperature records at airports and cooperative observing stations monitored by NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. "

Why is it that wunderground's own page pulling data from the NCDC lists 184 records lows set from 1/6 to 1/8?

Link

Not all records and statistics are created equal.

Instead of telling you the answer, take a chance to ponder. Why might a monthly or all time record be more meaningful than a daily record?
What time is the expected plasma cloud (CME) predicted to arrive? Will I see the aurora?

Those are questions many sky watchers are asking. The timing of the arrival, your location, and local weather conditions, will determine if you have a chance to witness the aurora. Those located high enough in latitude, above 50 degrees magnetic latitude (northern tier USA, Canada, Alaska, Northern UK, Scotland, Scandinavia) will be in the best location. At least partially clear skies and an impact to our geomagnetic field as predicted while it is still dark outside will be crucial.

Both CME prediction models released by NASA / Goddard Space Flight Center, and NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center have been brought up to date with the latest tracking.

The NASA/Goddard model is calling for an impact at 06:00 UTC (12:00 am EST).

The NOAA/SWPC model is calling for an impact at 08:00 UTC (03:00 am EST).

These times are all estimated based on CME speed analysis and can be off by several hours on either side.

The latest report by the Solar Influences Data Center (SIDC) in Belgium, based on a interplanetary shock speed of near 1900 km/s, is predicting an arrival time between 02:00 UTC (09:00 pm EST) and 07:00 UTC (02:00 am EST).

Summarizing the above timing, it is looking like a overnight impact (very early morning) on January 9th for the eastern parts of North America, late night impact for those located out west, and predawn impact for anyone located in the northern UK or Scandinavia.

There is no guarantee with any CME impact, and tracking models are data based and subject to error, therefore strong G3 level storming is a best case scenario. With a little luck, and good timing, we might just witness the aurora.

For information on understanding your geomagnetic latitude, geomagnetic storm levels, and capturing the aurora, please visit the following links.

Link
67 - barb:  years ago I went to Churchill Manitoba to view the polar bears.  I wanted to send a postcard to my friends in Inverness Scotland saying "finally I'm further north than you are". But when I checked a map - I wasn't!  :-)
A year's wild weather - in two minutes
BBC video, 7 hours ago

BBC left out our historic "European flooding" (and sure more very severe stuff). Two minutes just are not enough :-(
Quoting 106. FLwolverine:
67 - barb: - years ago I went to Churchill Manitoba to view the polar bears. - I wanted to send a postcard to my friends in Inverness Scotland saying "finally I'm further north than you are". But when I checked a map - I wasn't! :-)


Yes, lol, that's true. Took some time that I've realized it. GW may turn out to continually warm our region (as it currently does) which will cause (a lot of) problems. But when in respect to the gulf stream a sudden tipping point will cool us down to somehow (near) artic climate very quickly, well, this would be even worse. Or do some of our bloggers like to have millions of European refugees living in a camp nearby? The more as climate in their own homeland should change very rapidly too?
Quoting 104. ScottLincoln:

Not all records and statistics are created equal.

Instead of telling you the answer, take a chance to ponder. Why might a monthly or all time record be more meaningful than a daily record?


Scott..you guys pick and choose when to post daily and monthly lows or highs..just last night one of your members posted about Detroit breaking a daily high record..when is it ever correct to post about daily highs or lows??..when the situation fits the agenda?
Quoting 87. PanhandleChuck:
See, no matter what the weather is like, extremists will always find a way to attribute anomalies to Big Bad GW, caused by us mean evil humans. I think all GW scientists should go on a boat ride to the antarctic to investigate the climate and get stuck in ICE! LMBO

Did you ever figure out why the Earth's temperature is so warm? You never did answer. If we just do the math the Earth should be *much* colder.

Or maybe I can simplify even more. Why is the Earth warmer than the Moon, aside from the size difference?
time for some weather headlines.....


Latest storm and cold weather will cost airlines as much as $100 million in lost revenue and increased costs - @CNNMoney
Australia's heatwave blamed for causing 100,000 bats to drop from the sky - @Telegraph
Record cold spell that has half the country in the deep freeze could cost the US economy up to $5 billion - @NBCNews
Authorities report at least 21 cold-related deaths across the US as polar vortex begins to lighten - @AP
Tallahassee Airport has reached 35°, so this will go down as the coldest maximum temperature since Feb 4, 1996 - @NWSTallahassee, via @JimCantore
Tomorrow (CME)


Solar blast..
I have analyzed the lowest daily high and low temperature observed each year at MSP going back to 1940 (monday 1/6/2014 will likely be the MPS's coldest day of 2014). Although MSPs monday's daily high temperature of -13F was significantly colder than the long term average of -5F, the -23F daily low temperature was just slightly below the long term average of -21F. However, the long term averages have been modified by the mild winters of the last 15 years. Back in the 1970s, the 10 year average for annual low temperature was -26F.
MSP hasn't set any winter daily coldest temperature records since 1996 (the last daily low temperature record set was 9/16/2011). In 2012 MSP set 16 daily high temperature records, the most for any year. Only 3 daily high temperatyure record set in 2013.
Noting:-
103. Xyrus2000
104. ScottLincoln
The argument about this Global Warming/Climate change seems to go on endlessly!
Its a bit like we are arguing about the intensity of the rain, if its drizzling, or just spiting a bit.
Or if the wind will strengthen or might just get a bit stronger?
The fact that we, them, you, or us, are involved in an argument must be a sign that it is valid.
If things were stable then we could spend out time speculating on the possibility of hurricanes and other atmospheric anomalies.

Change is happening, be it almost unnoticed, or accelerating at a rapid pace.
Whatever could have been done about it, or stopping it can no longer be done as the time for doing it has passed.
Now we have to become observers and we will see if what is happening is an earth shattering event or simply a quiet evolution into steady climatic change.
One thing for sure is that there will be no turning the clock back and believe it or ignore it, reality will win in the end.
Whatever could have been done about it, or stopping it can no longer be done as the time for doing it has passed



no stopping it?....are you sure?
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN, CATEGORY THREE (07F)
6:00 AM FST January 9 2014
=========================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ian (975 hPa) located at 16.6S 176.8W has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots. Position fair based on hourly multispectral enhanced infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 5 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
======================
20 NM of the center

Storm Force Winds
===================
30 NM of the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
60 NM of the center in the northern semi-circle and within 45 NM of the center elsewhere

Organization has significantly improved in past 12 hours. Deep convection persistent in the last 12 hours. Primary bands tightly wrapping around the low level circulation center. The system remains in a low sheared environment under an upper diffluent region with fair outflow to the east and south. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. System is being moved eastward on the southern periphery of the mid level ridge situated to the north of the system.

Dvorak analysis is based on embedded center in LG surrounding yielding DT=4.5, PT=4.5, and MET=4.5.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24 HRS

The consensus of global models agree on a southwestward movement with gradual intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 16.8S 176.3W - 75 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 17.3S 175.5W - 90 knots (CAT 4)
48 HRS: 19.6S 173.7W - 85 knots (CAT 3)

Tropical Cyclone Ian Watches/Warnings (Tonga Island)
=================================================
A Tropical Cyclone Alert remains in force for the Ha'Apai an the Va'vau groups and Niuas

A Strong Wind Warning remains in force for Va'vau group and Niuas and is now in force for the Ha'apai group
Quoting 120. PlazaRed:
Noting:-
103. Xyrus2000
104. ScottLincoln
The argument about this Global Warming/Climate change seems to go on endlessly!
Its a bit like we are arguing about the intensity of the rain, if its drizzling, or just spiting a bit.
Or if the wind will strengthen or might just get a bit stronger?
The fact that we, them, you, or us, are involved in an argument must be a sign that it is valid.
If things were stable then we could spend out time speculating on the possibility of hurricanes and other atmospheric anomalies.

Change is happening, be it almost unnoticed, or accelerating at a rapid pace.
Whatever could have been done about it, or stopping it can no longer be done as the time for doing it has passed.
Now we have to become observers and we will see if what is happening is an earth shattering event or simply a quiet evolution into steady climatic change.
One thing for sure is that there will be no turning the clock back and believe it or ignore it, reality will win in the end.
Good point made there
Quoting 109. barbamz:


Yes, lol, that's true. Took some time that I've realized it. GW may turn out to continually warm our region (as it currently does) which will cause (a lot of) problems. But when in respect to the gulf stream a sudden tipping point will cool us down to somehow (near) artic climate very quickly, well, this would be even worse. Or do some of our bloggers like to have millions of European refugees living in a camp nearby? The more as climate change in their own homeland should change very rapidly too?

I think in Spain alone there are more than 3 million brand new built houses which are unoccupied.
The same will be true over most of the northern Mediterranean coasts.
Seriously though, most of the property will probably be bought up by the Russians and other eastern Europeans!
The prospects of a catastrophic drop in northern European temps would probably lead to an unsustainable environment over here very quickly, as no matter how much land we have there wont be enough for hundreds of millions of refugees.
Quoting 76. StormTrackerScott:


Just over 50. LOL It's 70 at my place. Not only is it warm but its getting humid as well. Also looks like some rain is forming near you Largo which maybe the cause of your temps being so low.

your lucky over there scott..its just 55 by me
still overcast and cool here....hopefully tomorrow its better..
Quoting 125. PlazaRed:

I think in Spain alone there are more than 3 million brand new built houses which are unoccupied.
The same will be true over most of the northern Mediterranean coasts.
Seriously though, most of the property will probably be bought up by the Russians and other eastern Europeans!
The prospects of a catastrophic drop in northern European temps would probably lead to an unsustainable environment over here very quickly, as no matter how much land we have there wont be enough for hundreds of millions of refugees.
Land is one thing but what will be the heat source? Good amount of forest up north but everyone will be heading south..
Quoting 55. Grothar:
This image doesn't give it justice, but it has been a miserable, rainy. cold, gloomy, windy past few days. I guess we should consider ourselves lucky, but it is lousy. It is so overcast, it is like Trenton, NJ





you remember yesterday?
The CME is already making snow on SOHO sensors.

Look at the Weekly Roundup... the end summarizes the US cold and hot records each week. The colds often beat the Hots by quite a lot. But that is just the US, not the globe.
Quoting 101. barbamz:
Remarkable coastal change from the recent UK storms
Prof. Petley's landslide blog, 8 January 2014


Thanks Barb! Great page.. copper mine landslide is pretty
Rhinelander, Wisconsin (PWS)
Updated: 3:46 PM EST on January 08, 2014
Clear
5.4 °F
Clear
Windchill: 5 °F
Humidity: 51%
Dew Point: -9 °F
Wind: 1.1 mph from the West
Pressure: 30.43 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles

better.....

Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 12:50 PM PST on January 08, 2014
Mostly Cloudy
64.2 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 26%
Dew Point: 28 °F
Wind: 5.0 mph from the NNE
Wind Gust: 5.0 mph
Pressure: 30.01 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles

65.3F here, forecast 68 (WU)
Quoting 110. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Link

Very good (but necessarily long) compilation of 2013 (around 90 percent weather related). Thanks for posting it! Though I've watched most of those events (not all) in the internet I've already forgotten quite a lot, sigh.
Quoting 132. indianrivguy:


Thanks Barb! Great page.. copper mine landslide is pretty


Yes, huuuge. If there had been loss of life, it would have been all over the media. Fortunately nobody died (and few noticed it).
Quoting 135. HadesGodWyvern:


both links refer to HUMBERTO's report, by the way. ;)


Fixed it.
Quoting 132. indianrivguy:


Thanks Barb! Great page.. copper mine landslide is pretty


BTW: This video from Malaysia I recently watched on the landslide blog for the very first time. Maybe the most frightening thing I've watched ever (and I've already seen a lot, in the internet or on TV of course). Little is known about this apocalyptic landslide in 1993. Caused some loss of life (and reshaped the coastline), but fortunately by far not as many victims as f.e. by Haiyan. But it really gives you the shudders:

Quoting 122. ricderr:
Whatever could have been done about it, or stopping it can no longer be done as the time for doing it has passed



no stopping it?....are you sure?

I'm sure.
I cant of course speak for anybody else.

UK rain satellite.
141. Kumo
Anyone know of a good resource containing statistics and charts of average atmospheric pressure trends over the last several decades?

Google has been unfruitful. TYIA

Quoting 128. JNTenne:
Land is one thing but what will be the heat source? Good amount of forest up north but everyone will be heading south..

30% of our electricity now comes from renewable sources in the form of wind and solar.
My heating bills for an average winter are about $50.
The problem in this hypothetical situation would be food. Not heating.
Its +20/C today and most days in the winter its not a problem to heat the house, or not even bother, except for very windy days with a lot of cloud cover, which are rare.
Food and feeding people is going to be the problem, as very little new agricultural land will be coming on stream, while the population increases.
Housing the masses is probably not the problem its going to be feeding them.
One of the biggest losses from a significant climate change in northern Europe would be the loss of food production, as the South of Europe has no room to expand food production much further.
On surface analysis the front stretches from Guatemala to Greenland.

Anyone know of a good resource containing statistics and charts of average atmospheric pressure trends over the last several decades?


gonna take you awhile but right here on WU...you can search back to each day in the almanac of local weather
Quoting 141. Kumo:
Anyone know of a good resource containing statistics and charts of average atmospheric pressure trends over the last several decades?

Google has been unfruitful. TYIA


What kind of trend? The CPC has some historical data on its teleconnections web pages (for instance daily NAO index since 1950), but I don't know what you are looking for.
Quoting 11. Thrawst:
Thank you Dr. Masters.

Cold front here in the Bahamas has officially become a warm front. It's gaining latitude
Looking at yet more rain until it's past going the other way... lol...

Quoting 132. indianrivguy:


Thanks Barb! Great page.. copper mine landslide is pretty
was just reading an article that the atlantic storms affecting northern europe could indeed becoming stronger and more severe in the years to come,also..more of them...we are witnessing climate changing..happening so slowly we average humans dont notice it..but the models and scientists are,even governments are finally waking up somewhat...kids being born today,may not recognize the weather we talk about in here today...amazing times we live in....our parents world was all about world wars etc.....we live in a beginning climate change world..wow
Quoting 138. barbamz:


BTW: This video I recently watched on the landslide blog for the very first time. Maybe the most frightening thing I've watched ever (and I've already seen a lot, in the internet or on TV of course). Little is known about this apocalyptic landslide in 1993. Caused some loss of life, but fortunately by far not as much as f.e. Haiyan. But it really gives you the shudders:



Wow.. hard to believe I have never seen that before.. awesome, thanks again Barb!
Quoting 116. ricderr:
Authorities report at least 21 cold-related deaths across the US as polar vortex begins to lighten - @AP
.
Quoting 111. ncstorm:
Scott..you guys pick and choose when to post daily and monthly lows or highs..just last night one of your members posted about Detroit breaking a daily high record..when is it ever correct to post about daily highs or lows??..when the situation fits the agenda?
You seem to have missed it, but Dr. Masters wrote of Detroit's high temperature in yesterday's blog entry:
Quoting Dr. Jeff Masters:
The high temperature in Detroit on Tuesday is expected to remain below zero; the city's list of days with a high temperature below zero is a short one, with only three such days in recorded history
I assumed that everyone read Dr. Masters' blog entries before commenting on them. I guess I was wrong...


How many of you remember this? And no wisecracks. This was unbelievable at the time. A very brief description from Wiki, but the other accounts are frightening


Located near the shore of the Saguenay River, Saint-Jean-Vianney was — unbeknownst to residents at the time — built atop a bed of unstable Leda clay, a type of subsoil which can liquefy under stress.

Following unusually heavy rains in April 1971, the clay soil bed at Saint-Jean-Vianney became saturated with water that had failed to run off, causing pockets of clay to gradually dissolve. Over the few weeks leading up to the landslide, cracks were reported in some of the town's streets and driveways, some house foundations dropped roughly six to eight inches into the soil, and some unusual noises — including underground thumps and an untraceable sound of running water — were reported.

At 10:45 p.m. on May 4, the earth at Saint-Jean-Vianney suddenly dropped approximately 100 ft (30 m), forming a canyon through which a river of liquefied clay flowed toward the Rivière du Petit-Bras below, swallowing houses in its path. Just before midnight, the clay finally stopped flowing and began to resolidify. By the time the landslide had ended, 41 homes had been destroyed and 31 people had been killed.

The landslide created a crater of approximately 324,000 square metres (3,490,000 sq ft) in area, varying from 15 m (49 ft) to 30 m (98 ft) in depth.
Aftermath

The Saint-Jean-Vianney site was subsequently declared unsafe for habitation, and over the next six months the survivors were resettled at Arvida. Through various municipal amalgamations, both the landslide site and Arvida are now within the municipal boundaries of Saguenay.

Subsequent research into the slide revealed that Saint-Jean-Vianney was in fact built directly atop the site of another landslide approximately 500 years earlier, long before any settlement had ever taken place in the area.

The site of Saint-Jean-Vianney remains uninhabited today, although a small park near Shipshaw and a museum exhibit at Saguenay's Place du Presbytère commemorate the event. Place du Presbytère also includes an exhibit dedicated to the Saguenay Flood of 1996.



FULL LINk

Link

Quoting 151. Grothar:
How many of you remember this? And no wisecracks. This was unbelievable at the time. A very brief description from Wiki, but the other accounts are frightening


Located near the shore of the Saguenay River, Saint-Jean-Vianney was — unbeknownst to residents at the time — built atop a bed of unstable Leda clay, a type of subsoil which can liquefy under stress.

Following unusually heavy rains in April 1971, the clay soil bed at Saint-Jean-Vianney became saturated with water that had failed to run off, causing pockets of clay to gradually dissolve. Over the few weeks leading up to the landslide, cracks were reported in some of the town's streets and driveways, some house foundations dropped roughly six to eight inches into the soil, and some unusual noises — including underground thumps and an untraceable sound of running water — were reported.

At 10:45 p.m. on May 4, the earth at Saint-Jean-Vianney suddenly dropped approximately 100 ft (30 m), forming a canyon through which a river of liquefied clay flowed toward the Rivière du Petit-Bras below, swallowing houses in its path. Just before midnight, the clay finally stopped flowing and began to resolidify. By the time the landslide had ended, 41 homes had been destroyed and 31 people had been killed.

The landslide created a crater of approximately 324,000 square metres (3,490,000 sq ft) in area, varying from 15 m (49 ft) to 30 m (98 ft) in depth.
Aftermath

The Saint-Jean-Vianney site was subsequently declared unsafe for habitation, and over the next six months the survivors were resettled at Arvida. Through various municipal amalgamations, both the landslide site and Arvida are now within the municipal boundaries of Saguenay.

Subsequent research into the slide revealed that Saint-Jean-Vianney was in fact built directly atop the site of another landslide approximately 500 years earlier, long before any settlement had ever taken place in the area.

The site of Saint-Jean-Vianney remains uninhabited today, although a small park near Shipshaw and a museum exhibit at Saguenay's Place du Presbytère commemorate the event. Place du Presbytère also includes an exhibit dedicated to the Saguenay Flood of 1996.



FULL LINk

Link



That is really scary...
Quoting 150. Neapolitan:
You seem to have missed it, but Dr. Masters wrote of Detroit's high temperature in yesterday's blog entry:I assumed that everyone read Dr. Masters' blog entries before commenting on them. I guess I was wrong...




yeah but that just proves my point..he posted it because of the situation fit the agenda..it purpose would serve as an extreme right and that more high temperatures outrank low temperatures?

The high temperature in Detroit on Tuesday is expected to remain below zero; the city's list of days with a high temperature below zero is a short one, with only three such days in recorded history.

there seems to be some discrepancy but the Weather Channel which owns this site is reporting that they met 0 degrees as a high and not subzero..I posted the link yesterday in the blog..I guess I assumed that you read that one..

is the Weather Channel reporting an error?
Quoting 55. Grothar:
This image doesn't give it justice, but it has been a miserable, rainy. cold, gloomy, windy past few days. I guess we should consider ourselves lucky, but it is lousy. It is so overcast, it is like Trenton, NJ



You ain't a-lie, fellow traveller... been like this seems like since Christmas...

Quoting 97. definer:
"... the event failed to set any monthly or all-time record low minimum temperature records at airports and cooperative observing stations monitored by NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. "

Why is it that wunderground's own page pulling data from the NCDC lists 184 records lows set from 1/6 to 1/8?

Link
They are DAILY records, i.e. set for that one day. In other words, it wasn't cold enough to be considered abnormally cold for this time of year, i.e. winter.

Quoting 111. ncstorm:


Scott..you guys pick and choose when to post daily and monthly lows or highs..just last night one of your members posted about Detroit breaking a daily high record..when is it ever correct to post about daily highs or lows??..when the situation fits the agenda?
It's always correct to post about them.

What matters after that is the conclusions being drawn. It's mismatched comparisons that become problematic, like comparing an orange to a baseball because they are both round, or saying South Carolina must be in South America or South Africa because they all have the word South in them.
Dr oz called the Polar vortex a arctic hurricane -_-.I'm done.So many things are happening for me the weekend of the 14-17th in February.I have to travel back and forth from N.Y.C to D.C.I just hope the weather doesn't go wrong.
Quoting 151. Grothar:
How many of you remember this? And no wisecracks.


No wisecracks? :(
Quoting 153. Bluestorm5:


That is really scary...
Makes me think about the potholes people living in limestone heavy areas like FL and the Bahamas sometimes find themselves dealing with. Only salvation is that it's difficult to slide 500 feet down...
Quoting 156. washingtonian115:
Dr oz called the Polar vortex a arctic hurricane -_-.I'm done.So many things are happening for me the weekend of the 14-17th in February.I have to travel back and forth from N.Y.C to D.C.I just hope the weather doesn't go wrong.


Okay, no snow for Washi, check. Just a clear, sunny, warm day coming.
Climate Change in Four Dimensions is starting on Coursera and is ten weeks long. Like all Coursera classes, it is free and you are not obligated to do any work you don't want to. You can unenroll any time you want. This course is taught by people associated with the Scripps Oceanographic Institution.

The lectures from David Archers basic climatology class are posted online here. There are two versions, live and Coursera. I like the live lectures better though they are longer (more info). The Coursera version was 13 weeks long. Archer is with the University of Chicago.

Another Coursera class Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4C Warmer World Must be Avoided is starting January 27. It is four weeks long. It is taught by people from The World Bank which I find interesting.

There is no excuse for ignorance!
Just want to say what stands out for me about this current "cold blast":
1) It seems like it's really bad, but only because it's been so warm for so long that this much cold at once seems weird.

2) I don't associate these cold fronts with these days of continuous drippy rain. Normally one would see a short blast of rain with the leading edge of the front, a shorter period sometimes with the back edge, and then we'd be into a period where the skies would clear and the temps would fall, especially overnight. Recently the best we've seen is 66 at 11 a.m., followed by a warmup, and a return of the cold front as a warm front, all accompanied by this rain.

Whatever else you want to say, I don't think you can argue the climate isn't changing. What's causing it, what to do about it [especially the latter] - have at it! We need to look forward as well as backward.

Gotta run. Back later.
A chilly day. 25/48. Sometimes cloudy and sometimes clear, clear right now. Dewpoint up more than 30 degrees from yesterday. Winds are stronger out of the NNE.

The island, St. Simons, had colder lows than the mainland, Brunswick airport for the past 2 days. Unusual. Buoy 41008 30 miles offshore fell to 24.6 degrees air temperature yesterday. The first time I remember seeing the air temp there fall below freezing.
Quoting 156. washingtonian115:
Dr oz called the Polar vortex a arctic hurricane -_-.I'm done.So many things are happening for me the weekend of the 14-17th in February.I have to travel back and forth from N.Y.C to D.C.I just hope the weather doesn't go wrong.


arctic hurricane? Oh brother!
The high temperature in Detroit on Tuesday is expected to remain below zero; the city's list of days with a high temperature below zero is a short one, with only three such days in recorded history.

is expected* is key here, Dr. Masters' words were a forecast for the high, so he didn't make any mistake in wording. However, the forecast didn't pan out.

Quoting 154. ncstorm:


yeah but that just proves my point..he posted it because of the situation fit the agenda..it purpose would serve as an extreme right and that more high temperatures outrank low temperatures?

The high temperature in Detroit on Tuesday is expected to remain below zero; the city's list of days with a high temperature below zero is a short one, with only three such days in recorded history.

there seems to be some discrepancy but the Weather Channel which owns this site is reporting that they met 0 degrees as a high and not subzero..I posted the link yesterday in the blog..I guess I assumed that you read that one..

is the Weather Channel reporting an error?


Eh, not sure where TWC gets their data from, Detroit City Airport measured a high temperature yesterday of 3F right before midnight, or 11:53 pm yesterday.
So, Detroit managed to scrape their way above zero, albeit in the middle of the night.
Quoting 164. Astrometeor:
The high temperature in Detroit on Tuesday is expected to remain below zero; the city's list of days with a high temperature below zero is a short one, with only three such days in recorded history.

is expected* is key here, Dr. Masters' words were a forecast for the high, so he didn't make any mistake in wording. However, the forecast didn't pan out.



Eh, not sure where TWC gets their data from, Detroit City Airport measured a high temperature yesterday of 3F right before midnight, or 11:53 pm yesterday.
So, Detroit managed to scrape their way above zero, albeit in the middle of the night.
our temps passed 0f at 9 last night to 0.3 degrees then to 1 degree just before midnight
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 4:00 PM EST Wednesday 8 January 2014
Condition:Mostly Cloudy
Pressure:30.4 inches
Tendency:falling
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:15.4°F
Dewpoint:5.0°F
Humidity:63%
Wind:WSW 14 mph
Wind Chill: 1
From the Business Insider

Central Park was 5 degrees Tuesday morning, the coldest it's been on a Jan. 7 since 1896, according to NBC New York.

This blast of frigid air comes after Central Park reached a high temperature of 55 degrees on Monday.

The coldest temperature ever recorded at Central Park was -15 degrees on Feb. 9, 1934.




But, how do we know it wasn't colder on Jan. 7 1895?

How do we know the temperature of 55 degrees in Central Park wasn't taken next to the restaurant heating vent?

And how do we know the -15 degrees on Feb. 9, 1934 wasn't actually -16 degrees and in 1750 O.S., it wasn't even colder?

(Not that I'm nitpicking or anything?
Quoting 164. Astrometeor:
The high temperature in Detroit on Tuesday is expected to remain below zero; the city's list of days with a high temperature below zero is a short one, with only three such days in recorded history.

is expected* is key here, Dr. Masters' words were a forecast for the high, so he didn't make any mistake in wording. However, the forecast didn't pan out.



Eh, not sure where TWC gets their data from, Detroit City Airport measured a high temperature yesterday of 3F right before midnight, or 11:53 pm yesterday.
So, Detroit managed to scrape their way above zero, albeit in the middle of the night.


yeah I said yesterday it makes a difference where your thermostat is placed at maybe? I mean you got the owner of WU saying a temperature is higher than forecast than what the author of this blog says..so if we throw out the weather channel forecast, then shouldnt we be throwing out that blog? in all, it all falls under TWC umbrella..
Quoting 167. Grothar:
From the Business Insider

Central Park was 5 degrees Tuesday morning, the coldest it's been on a Jan. 7 since 1896, according to NBC New York.

This blast of frigid air comes after Central Park reached a high temperature of 55 degrees on Monday.

The coldest temperature ever recorded at Central Park was -15 degrees on Feb. 9, 1934.




But, how do we know it wasn't colder on Jan. 7 1895?

How do we know the temperature of 55 degrees in Central Park wasn't taken next to the restaurant heating vent?

And how do we know the -15 degrees on Feb. 9, 1934 wasn't actually -16 degrees and in 1750 O.S., it wasn't even colder?

(Not that I'm nitpicking or anything?


We know that on January 7 the coldest temperatures in Central Park were 6 in 1896, 7 in 1884, and 8 in 1912.
Quoting 168. ncstorm:


yeah I said yesterday it makes a difference where your thermostat is placed at maybe? I mean you got the owner of WU saying a temperature is higher than forecast than what the author of this blog says..so if we throw out the weather channel forecast, then shouldnt we be throwing out that blog? in all, it all falls under TWC umbrella..


No, you're going to an extreme. So what that Dr. Masters' forecast didn't pan out? It's weather, and everyone (especially meteorologists in winter) makes mistakes. Nobody's throwing out anyone's forecast (well, you might be), the forecast was only off a few degrees that just so happened to occur right before midnight. A couple of hours made a huge difference in this instance. Just one of those things that happens, nothing to get into a big deal about.
Well the Detroit Metropolitan airport stayed below zero all day yesterday with a high of -1
Quoting 167. Grothar:
From the Business Insider

Central Park was 5 degrees Tuesday morning, the coldest it's been on a Jan. 7 since 1896, according to NBC New York.

This blast of frigid air comes after Central Park reached a high temperature of 55 degrees on Monday.

The coldest temperature ever recorded at Central Park was -15 degrees on Feb. 9, 1934.




But, how do we know it wasn't colder on Jan. 7 1895?

How do we know the temperature of 55 degrees in Central Park wasn't taken next to the restaurant heating vent?

And how do we know the -15 degrees on Feb. 9, 1934 wasn't actually -16 degrees and in 1750 O.S., it wasn't even colder?

(Not that I'm nitpicking or anything?


There are accounts of -16 in Manhattan in January 1780. The narrows between Brooklyn and Staten Island froze enough for people to cross, the only time that has occurred.
NBC -2 news just said the Polar Vortex was the coldest air in 100 years for the North East.

And I've heard the term "historic cold wave" since last week.

The main stream media (including TWC) need to read this blog, because they won't stop mentioning how "historic" the Polar Vortex has been across the nation.

But I guess that's the news. It's not alway accurate. It's what's best for business or what increases viewers.











There've been a lot of cold waves in the NE colder than this one in the past 100 years.
Quoting 173. Sfloridacat5:
NBC news just said the Polar Vortex was the coldest air in 100 years for the North East.

And I've heard the term "historic cold wave" since last week.

The main stream media (including TWC) need to read this blog, because they won't stop mentioning how "historic" the Polar Vortex has been across the nation.

But I guess that's the news. It's not alway accurate. It's what's best for business or what increases viewers


Historic: famous or important in history, or potentially so.
Synonyms:significant, notable, important, momentous, consequential, memorable, newsworthy, unforgettable, remarkable.

^That's Google's definition of "historic". I think the media is well within their rights to talk about the cold wave. But, I guess that's just my opinion.
Quoting 163. DonnieBwkGA:


arctic hurricane? Oh brother!


here are dual stratospheric super hurricanes

:)

Link
Quoting 172. DonnieBwkGA:


There are accounts of -16 in Manhattan in January 1780. The narrows between Brooklyn and Staten Island froze enough for people to cross, the only time that has occurred.


Maybe that's why they named the Bridge, the Verrazano-Narrows.


From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search
Year Without a Summer
1816 summer.png
1816 summer temperature anomaly compared to average temperatures from 1971–2000
Volcano Mount Tambora
Date April 10, 1815
Type Ultra Plinian
Location Lesser Sunda Islands, Dutch East Indies
8°15′S 118°0′E
VEI 7
Impact Caused a volcanic winter that dropped temperatures by 0.4 to 0.7 °C worldwide
This article is about the year 1816. For the Byron poem, see Darkness (poem).

The Year Without a Summer (also known as the Poverty Year, The Summer that Never Was, Year There Was No Summer, and Eighteen Hundred and Froze to Death[1]) was 1816, in which severe summer climate abnormalities caused average global temperatures to decrease by 0.4–0.7 °C (0.7–1.3 °F),[2] resulting in major food shortages across the Northern Hemisphere.[3][4] Evidence suggests that the anomaly was caused by a combination of a historic low in solar activity with a volcanic winter event, the latter caused by a succession of major volcanic eruptions capped by the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora, in the Dutch East Indies (Indonesia), the largest known eruption in over 1,300 years. The Little Ice Age, then in its concluding decades, may also have been a factor.[attribution needed]
As the eastern US digs itself out of this week's deep freeze, Australia, Europe, and Eastern Europe continue their balmy ways. Even now, deep into the evening hours, parts of Scandinavia are completely snow- and ice-free, with temperatures in the mid 40s in many locations. Today's anomalies can be seen on these maps:

Neapolitan image

Neapolitan image

Neapolitan image

Meanwhile, it looks like the next two weeks will turn toasty for the US West--unwelcome news for ski operations and those who rely on winter's snows for summer's waters:

Neapolitan image

Neapolitan image

Northern Hemisphere snow cover remains above normal in parts of the eastern US and a few spots in Asia. However, the western US is in trouble, while the snow drought over eastern Europe/western Asia is very evident:

Neapolitan image

Note the much lower than normal snowpack in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, which supplies water to tens of millions of Californians:

Neapolitan image
and here are the triplets






Link
Overview
2013 was the New Zealand region’s second warmest year since reliable records commenced in 1870. Mean temperatures across the New Zealand region have been well above average in the months of March, July, August and November.

Link

Extreme high temperatures fan forest fires in Chile

As the northern hemisphere shivers, Chile's capital city Santiago has been cloaked in smoke by forest fires - exacerbated by soaring temperatures - sweeping the southern and central regions of the country

Link
Scientists to examine Pacific's 'global chimney'

Even though few people live in the western tropical Pacific Ocean, these remote waters affect billions of people by shaping climate and air chemistry worldwide. Next week, leading scientists will head to the region to better understand its influence on the atmosphere—including how that may change in coming decades if storms over the Pacific become more powerful with rising global temperatures.

With the warmest ocean waters on Earth, the western tropical Pacific fuels a sort of chimney whose output has global reach. The region feeds heat and moisture into huge clusters of thunderstorms that loft gases and particles into the stratosphere, where they spread out over the entire planet and influence the climate.


Read more at: Link
only one day was cold so far this winter e cen florida
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
236 PM EST WED JAN 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COLD WEATHER
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THE LAST DAY IS RETREATING NORTHWARD
TODAY. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOUTH OF ITS INFLUENCE...DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE /EVIDENCED BY PWATS BETWEEN 1.5-2.O INCHES/ IS DRAPED
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
ALLOWED FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN OVER THE EASTERN
PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. EAST/NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS BRINGING
INLAND WARMER MARINE AIR...AND TEMPERATURES HAVE GRADUALLY RISING
INTO THE UPPER 60S MOST AREAS.

THE MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAIN LODGED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
AT LEAST LATE THURSDAY...MEANING HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE.
THE EASTERLY FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO PERSIST...AND
AFTER TEMPERATURES FALL LITTLE/NONE OVERNIGHT...READINGS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO RISE WELL INTO THE 70S ON THURSDAY.

BY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE INTO
THE ATLANTIC...TURNING FLOW A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY AND PULLING THE
DEEPER-MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE TO THE NORTH OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. RAIN CHANCES WILL LOWER ACCORDINGLY. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE TO WELL ABOVE NORMALS...WITH MINIMA IN THE 60S/LOW 70S AND
MAXIMA MAINLY IN LOW 80S.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DESPITE SOME RECENT TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE EXTENDED MODEL
SOLUTIONS IN PREVIOUS CYCLES...THE 00Z PACKAGE BETWEEN THE GFS/GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE ECMWF HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROJECTED TO DIG ESE FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHEASTERN REGION
THROUGH THIS TIME. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP
EASTWARD AND PASS THROUGH THE STATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY (LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA). ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER
AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY FORECAST TO
DIP BACK TO AROUND NORMAL ACROSS THE INLAND LOCATIONS. FOR THE
EAST COAST LOCATIONS...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING EASTWARD IN
ITS WAKE WILL TRANSLATE TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING BACK TO THE
EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
AVERAGE.
NBC World News (that just started) is going to discuss Global Warming and the Polar Vortex.
It was mentioned as one of their main stories at the introduction.

I wonder if they will get it right?
Interesting weather today...Cloudy, coolish and misty showers.

ADT for Ian anomaly..more dateline issues.

Subject: Product Outage/Anomaly: ADT Output for Ian and 07P,
This is a multi-part message in MIME format.
--------------040505060508090502070200
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1; format=flowed
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit

*Topic: *ADT Output for Ian and 07P*
*

*Date/Time**Issued:***January 08, 2014 2205 UTC*
*

*Product(s) or Data Impacted:*ADT for Ian and 07P*
***

*Date/Time of Initial Impact:*January 06, 2014 0000 UTC*
*

*Date/Time of Expected End:*Unknown**

*Length of Outage:*TBD

*Details/Specifics of Change:*ADToutput intensities for Ian and
07P have
no microwave score adjustment due to an issue which has been identified
by CIMSS for tropical cyclones in the vicinity of the dateline. As a
result the ADT estimated intensities may be underestimated until or
unless an eye becomes resolved by the ADT algorithm.**//**

*Contact Information for Further Information:* ESPC Operations at
ESPCOperations@noaa.gov at 301-817-3880 **

Yesterday in Mt. Airy, Maryland
Quoting 185. GeoffreyWPB:
Interesting weather today...Cloudy, coolish and misty showers.



Cold, wet, damp, dark, windy,overcast and depressing. Other than that, how have you been, Geoff?
No mention of GW even though it was their main topic (GW and the Polar Vortex) on the into to the NBC World News.

If you missed it, you didn't miss much. They discussed the billions of money lost due to the cold.

Then discussed the warming trend.

Still called it "record" cold wave.

Don't know why no mention of GW?
Nice wind link Keeper, thanks.. is there a legend, all I can get is windfield.

Jim, nice graphs, thanks. The warm areas that have intruded and are trying to entrench into the flattened vortex body scare the hell out of me. One is on top of Greenland, which makes me glad all that ice is in a hole and not a hill. The other over methane rich tundra, and Alaska. Areas that should be stocking up on below freezing "cold" so to speak, are flannel shirt warm. Clathrates are warming.

The lessening of the temperature differential, slowdown of the jetstream and therefore unbalancing and deforming of the once rather consistent vortex pattern, might be able be feeding itself. This pattern seems to me to be advancing slower than years ago and with the deformation it is nearly cutting our winter lens in two. This entrenches VERY warm air into areas I cannot recall it ever reaching.

It not so much the surface melt, as it is the overall intrusion of warmth into the ice. The cold deep below the surface warms as it staves off melting at the surface. This adjustment in heat is bringing great enormous volumes of ice, ever closer to the melting. My fear is that the ice will deplete its reserve "coldness" nearly all at once and melt wholesale.

The sudden displacement of so many millions of coastal citizens worldwide, much of them into places that have no room, nor enough food would be catastrophic. Even me. My current residence would be unlivable with just a meter of rise. At the least, today's current sea level rise rates are leaving time to find some solutions, though we will waste it.
Edit to post 189

Story still to come.
They (NBC World News) just mentioned the story again. It's comming up.

"Where does GW stand with this recent cold wave?"

They are going to try to set the record straight.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NEW JERSEY...MERCER AND NORTHWESTERN
BURLINGTON. IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...LOWER BUCKS AND
PHILADELPHIA.

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* AN ICE JAM CONTINUES ON THE DELAWARE RIVER NEAR TRENTON. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN FLOODING UPSTREAM TO THE NORTH OF THE ICE JAM.
WHEN THIS ICE JAM BREAKS...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WATER BEHIND THE
JAM TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING DOWNSTREAM.

* TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...THE ICE JAM MAY NOT BREAK UNTIL
LATER THURSDAY...AT THE EARLIEST.

* OUTLOOK...THIS FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED EXTENSION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY IF THE ICE JAM IS STILL CAUSING
FLOODING AT 6 AM THURSDAY.
It's on right now.
Quoting 188. Grothar:


Cold, wet, damp, dark, windy,overcast and depressing. Other than that, how have you been, Geoff?


Pretty much sums it up!
Dr. Masters was on the NBC World News trying to set the record straight.
Did you see it?
Quoting 195. Sfloridacat5:
Dr. Masters was on the NBC World News trying to set the record straight.
Did you see it?

Saw it.. He did good.
197. flsky
Quoting 189. Sfloridacat5:
No mention of GW even though it was their main topic (GW and the Polar Vortex) on the into to the NBC World News.

If you missed it, you didn't miss much. They discussed the billions of money lost due to the cold.

Then discussed the warming trend.

Still called it "record" cold wave.

Don't know why no mention of GW?

Did you watch the whole segment. It was mentioned a number of times. Dr Masters spoke twice.
**Not weather related but important**

The first fatal case of the Bird Flu (H5N1 strain) reported in North America. A person in Alberta, Canada died from the disease after returning from China. Its not known whether the disease spread from him in Canada or not. This disease is not easily transmitted from human to human, however it is very deadly if caught.


Link
Quoting 197. flsky:

Did you watch the whole segment. It was mentioned a number of times. Dr Masters spoke twice.


Yep, saw Dr. Masters trying to explain things.
Current temp. in Lake Worth,
Fl...66.6°. Staying inside for a while.
Quoting 164. Astrometeor:
The high temperature in Detroit on Tuesday is expected to remain below zero; the city's list of days with a high temperature below zero is a short one, with only three such days in recorded history.

is expected* is key here, Dr. Masters' words were a forecast for the high, so he didn't make any mistake in wording. However, the forecast didn't pan out.



Eh, not sure where TWC gets their data from, Detroit City Airport measured a high temperature yesterday of 3F right before midnight, or 11:53 pm yesterday.
So, Detroit managed to scrape their way above zero, albeit in the middle of the night.

The official high temperature reading at Detroit Metro Airport (DTW) yesterday was a balmy -1F. That is a tie for 3rd on the all-time lowest high temperature. The record low of -5 was also broken on the 7th when DTW hit -14F. This was not in the top-5 all-time lowest lows. The lowest recorded wind chill was -41F early on the 7th at DTW. All of these were taken directly off the NWS Detroit/Pontiac website. This is on top of the 10.6" of snow from the January 4-5th winter storm and the 11.1" from the December 312st-January 2nd winter storm.

You are using Detroit City Airport and Detroit Metro Airport is Detroit's official climate site, not City Airport.
They're saying that I might be able to see the northern lights tonight, if I stay up until 12:30, is it worth it?
Big props to Masters who got some face time on NBC nightly news, he lay the smack down on the AGW denial crowd who have come out screaming that this cold snap disproves AGW. He pointed out this is a global issue, measured in decades and pointed out the contrasting far above temps in so many other places on Earth. With man driven climate change we can expect extremes, this cold snap is just one example. Nea, as par for the course, posted images on the prior page that highlight the points the good Doc made.
Also, Accuweather has a article about a snowy owl invasion to the northeast. Would be so cool to see one. Check it out!


Link
Quoting 201. wxchaser97:

The official high temperature reading at Detroit Metro Airport (DTW) yesterday was a balmy -1F. That is a tie for 3rd on the all-time lowest high temperature. The record low of -5 was also broken on the 7th when DTW hit -14F. This was not in the top-5 all-time lowest lows. The lowest recorded wind chill was -41F early on the 7th at DTW. All of these were taken directly off the NWS Detroit/Pontiac website. This is on top of the 10.6" of snow from the January 4-5th winter storm and the 11.1" from the December 312st-January 2nd winter storm.


Why does the official come from Detroit Metro but the data for Detroit comes from Detroit City Airport?
Quoting 202. ZacWeatherKidUK:
Their saying that the I might be able to see the northern lights tonight, if I stay up until 12:30, is it worth it?


Not til nearly morning if at all Zac
Quoting 202. ZacWeatherKidUK:
They're saying that I might be able to see the northern lights tonight, if I stay up until 12:30, is it worth it?


12:30's not that late Zac, go for it! Although, if you have a camera that can do exposure shots (exposure means that the camera collects light for multiple seconds), then take that camera out with you. Camera eyes are a lot more adept than human eyes at seeing the lights. My mother has caught the Northern Lights on her camera all the way down here in Tennessee.
Quoting 205. Astrometeor:


Why does the official come from Detroit Metro but the data for Detroit comes from Detroit City Airport?

What do you mean by the data for Detroit?
Quoting 202. ZacWeatherKidUK:
They're saying that I might be able to see the northern lights tonight, if I stay up until 12:30, is it worth it?

I would. I have stayed up before but didn't get to see them. I saw them when I was little, as I was traveling to an old cabin in Northern Michigan, but I don't remember it :/
Quoting 208. wxchaser97:

What do you mean by the data for Detroit?


When I ask the NWS for the forecast for Detroit, MI, they give me this page. So, for the data, I click on the "3-Day History" link over under Detroit City Airport (KDET) on the right half of the page. KDET data
Quoting 210. Astrometeor:


When I ask the NWS for the forecast for Detroit, MI, they give me this page. So, for the data, I click on the "3-Day History" link over under Detroit City Airport (KDET) on the right half of the page. KDET data

Why? I don't have the knowledge to answer that question. All I know is that Metro is the official station and City is not. Maybe I can ask that at my next NWS Detroit job shadow.
Quoting 211. wxchaser97:

Why? I don't have the knowledge to answer that question. All I know is that Metro is the official station and City is not. Maybe I can ask that at my next NWS Detroit job shadow.


Okay. Thanks Isaac. Tell them they have created a very confused Nashvillian.
Tropical Cyclone Ian is looking great!
Quoting 202. ZacWeatherKidUK:
They're saying that I might be able to see the northern lights tonight, if I stay up until 12:30, is it worth it?


Been looking through the evening. Seems the best, lowest place is in Edinburgh area/region. But being hard to predict, it 'could' reach further south. Would take me 10 hours to drive to the areas in good sects, all things perfect, I'd set out. But too far if a shaky guarantee....may do it anyway, if the promise went above the doubts. For here, seems more on the 9th in the evening if any best chance
Quoting 212. Astrometeor:


Okay. Thanks Isaac. Tell them they have created a very confused Nashvillian.

You're welcome and I will. :P
The local mets threw the term "warm" around very lose today.Warm is when I'm not able to see my breath,and my hands aren't near frozen during the first 10 minutes outside.Ice was every where.I'm glad I didn't really see none where I was.I left some bottles of water in the car.Big mistake.They were completely frozen hard as a rock.
Quoting 167. Grothar:
From the Business Insider

Central Park was 5 degrees Tuesday morning, the coldest it's been on a Jan. 7 since 1896, according to NBC New York.

This blast of frigid air comes after Central Park reached a high temperature of 55 degrees on Monday.

The coldest temperature ever recorded at Central Park was -15 degrees on Feb. 9, 1934.




But, how do we know it wasn't colder on Jan. 7 1895?

How do we know the temperature of 55 degrees in Central Park wasn't taken next to the restaurant heating vent?

And how do we know the -15 degrees on Feb. 9, 1934 wasn't actually -16 degrees and in 1750 O.S., it wasn't even colder?

(Not that I'm nitpicking or anything?
Best not to look at these things as one day events. According to Dr. Masters on NBC tonite we should look over the entire history of the last umm... 30 years.
Quoting 200. GeoffreyWPB:
Current temp. in Lake Worth,
Fl...66.6°. Staying inside for a while.


Same temp it is here. Today's high was 68.9....


I want more snow. I want it to look like this again :p
Quoting 219. Doppler22:


I want more snow. I want it to look like this again :p


Logan, I want that kind of snow. Send it down here please via Fedex Express pronto.


This is what 2" of snow looks like, Putnam County, TN. From the January 5-6 Snowstorm of 2014.
Quoting 195. Sfloridacat5:
Dr. Masters was on the NBC World News trying to set the record straight.
Did you see it?


Didn't see him. Was he saying that this cold wave could have, may have, or probably cause by GW?
The latest cold wave, the first real one in almost two decades, invites comparison with two seasons, those of 1983-84 and 1984-85, which I remember:

December 23-25, 1983: widespread temperatures below -30F in the northern Rockies and Plains; five consecutive days continuously below 0F in Denver; inversion-prone areas posted more impressive numbers, with -55F in Wisdom, MT and -52 in Bozeman.

And the next year was more impressive. A cold wave broke out in late January and early February with widespread temperatures below -20F recorded as far south as Tennessee. Temperatures even in thermal-belt areas of the Rockies approached -30F. Four stations in inversion-prone valleys posted temperatures below -60F on February 1: Maybell, CO (-61F), Middle Sinks, UT (-64F), Milner, CO (-65F), and Peter's Sink, UT (-69F).

This latest outbreak, by comparison, did cause one reading of -42F in International Falls; but they don't make them the way they used to.
Quoting 218. PedleyCA:


Same temp it is here. Today's high was 68.9....


Temps going up. Now 67.3°.
Quoting 217. CosmicEvents:
Best not to look at these things as one day events. According to Dr. Masters on NBC tonite we should look over the entire history of the last umm... 30 years.
most of the changes have taken place the last 25yrs or more

that's what I've notice anyway

before that it was pretty well what to expect for normal

then we had a couple of abnormal's
then the abnormal's became the normal

so that when we get a normal we fail to recognize it

just like the storms and ice and cold and long winter so far

its almost normal

only thing missing is 4 feet of snow


but we are doing good with a foot and and a half


like I been telling peeps this is normal winter weather it is suppose to be cold with four feet of snow and a storm every other day

It has been two months since Super Typhoon Haiyan, regarded as the strongest landfalling tropical cyclone on Earth in recorded history and the deadliest Philippines typhoon on record, made landfall in the central Philippines, leaving catastrophic damage. Though the effects of the storm are hardly mentioned in the mainstream media these days, it remains a terrible situation there -- and the death toll is still rising. Today's update from the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) lists 6,190 individuals as deceased, with an additional 40 fatalities across Taiwan, China, and Vietnam. A total of 28,626 people were injured, and 1,785 remain missing to this day.

Photo from James Reynolds:

BaltimoreBrian, is that Grothar's long lost cousin there in post #222?
I've never seen your picture Nathan ;)
Quoting 228. BaltimoreBrian:
I've never seen your picture Nathan ;)


I don't have any pictures of myself on my computer. And, I don't own anything that takes pictures, so...yeah.

I guess I could probably find one floating on the internet, but I'm too lazy.
Grothar may remember the Lawrence Welk intro.
Going to watch PBS Nova & Shackleton programs.
Quoting 230. BaltimoreBrian:
Grothar may remember the Lawrence Welk intro.


I do, fondly. Every time I see a bubble, I get melancholy.

Quoting 210. Astrometeor:


When I ask the NWS for the forecast for Detroit, MI, they give me this page. So, for the data, I click on the "3-Day History" link over under Detroit City Airport (KDET) on the right half of the page. KDET data
Detroit Metro is in Romulus, so when you ask for Detroit, you get Detroit City because it's within the city limits.  If you enter Chicago, you get Midway, not O'Hare, for the same reason.
Quoting 68. Thunderfan:


In many ways, it sounds like Maw Nature healing itself. If we artificially warm up the planet, then Maw Nature's antibodies kick in and cool off man's infection.



What are you talking about? The weather almost everywhere but the northeast US is abnormally warm and dry including here in the Southwest. Nothing is healing to my knowledge.
I'm no Obama fanboy, I disagree with a lot of what he has done. However, give him credit where its due. He did support this, and surprisingly, we are indeed moving away from foreign oil dependence, a great sign.

Link

Now all we need to do is gradually replace domestic oil with alternative environmentally friendly solutions. However, I feel that "home grown" oil is the best way to go until we do. Because that way, investing in alternatives becomes easier if we become mostly energy independent.

The scary part is, will we ACTUALLY work towards a boom in alternative energy, or will we stick to just new American oil, only time will tell. We can always hope for better.


Quoting 233. FLwolverine:

Detroit Metro is in Romulus, so when you ask for Detroit, you get Detroit City because it's within the city limits.  If you enter Chicago, you get Midway, not O'Hare, for the same reason.


Just like San Francisco airport. I don't even think it is in the same county
Quoting 203. Tribucanes:
Big props to Masters who got some face time on NBC nightly news, he lay the smack down on the AGW denial crowd who have come out screaming that this cold snap disproves AGW. He pointed out this is a global issue, measured in decades and pointed out the contrasting far above temps in so many other places on Earth. With man driven climate change we can expect extremes, this cold snap is just one example. Nea, as par for the course, posted images on the prior page that highlight the points the good Doc made.


I believe in climate change, it's been changing since time began, humans contribute some, nature contributes the majority, IMO!

With that said why is it OK for the GW crowd, to raid my pocketbook with taxes to re-distribute my hard earned money!
If the GW crowd is honest, and say,read my lips NO new taxes, I'd be more in favor of it.
But with the Corrupt EPA, skipping money to their friends, grants, congress funneling money to their cronies for pet projects that make them rich, while I'm getting poorer, I ain't for it one bit!!
Ian at 60kts. Forecast to go to 100kts by NOAA.

Good evening everyone after a bone chilling cold night here in Daytona Beach, today's weather turned out to be absolutely gorgeous, and now we are heading for a big time warm up. I just hope I don't get sick. Imagine my roommate from NY said it was cold here last night.
Quoting 235. Jedkins01:
I'm no Obama fanboy, I disagree with a lot of what he has done. However, give him credit where its due. He did support this, and surprisingly, we are indeed moving away from foreign oil dependence, a great sign.

Link

Now all we need to do is gradually replace domestic oil with alternative environmentally friendly solutions. However, I feel that "home grown" oil is the best way to go until we do. Because that way, investing in alternatives becomes easier if we become mostly energy independent.

The scary part is, will we ACTUALLY work towards a boom in alternative energy, or will we stick to just new American oil, only time will tell. We can always hope for better.




President Obama's scheme to bomb Syria, and to topple the Syrian government failed, if this happened the Saudi Government and Qatar, would have built an oil pipeline from Saudi Arabia, to the Mediterranean Sea.
If this was done, Russia and Iran would be left out in the cold for oil profits in Europe, Putin Stopped this scheme, because Russia wants all the profits for them. So goes the red line in the sand for the President.
Nuclear Event in USA on Wednesday, 08 January, 2014 at 04:38 (04:38 AM) UTC.
Description
A frigid arctic air mass that brought record low temperatures to Pennsylvania, closing schools, courts and even some ski slopes is also being investigated as the possible cause of a nuclear reactor shutdown. The dense mass of ultra-cold air began moving into the state on Monday afternoon, which is when one of two reactors shut down at FirstEnergy Corp.'s Beaver Valley Nuclear Power Station in Shippingport, about 25 miles northwest of Pittsburgh. "There are many potential reasons this could happen and the cold weather is one of them," FirstEnergy spokeswoman Jennifer Young said. "But there are hundreds of other causes we're considering." Western Pennsylvania temperatures were in the mid-20s Monday before dipping precipitously after noon. The temperature in Pittsburgh fell to minus-7 degrees late Monday night - a record low for that date - and continued falling to minus-9 on Tuesday, another record. The previous record low for Jan. 7 was minus-5, in 1884. (The all-time low of 22 degrees below zero was set on Jan. 19, 1994.) The reactor shut down about 5 p.m. Monday when the National Weather Service said temperatures had fallen to about zero. Nuclear Regulatory Commission spokesman Neil Sheehan called the shutdown "uneventful" and safe, but noted a fire suppression system was activated, dousing an electrical transformer with water. The transformer remained frozen Tuesday. The transformer converts power created by the reactor to electrical voltage. The transformer's failure prompted the reactor to shut down. The reactor remained shut Tuesday as an investigation into the cause continues, Young said. The NRC has an inspector at the plant, who will oversee FirstEnergy's investigation, any repairs and the reactor's eventual return to service, Young said. That could take several days, if the transformer must be replaced, Sheehan said.

Nuclear Event in USA on Wednesday, 08 January, 2014 at 11:01 (11:01 AM) UTC.
Description
Two nuclear power plants automatically tripped within hours of each other Jan. 6. About four hours later, Unit 3 at the Indian Point nuclear power plant in New York automatically tripped due to “33 Steam Generator Steam flow/Feed flow Mismatch,” the NRC said. Plant operator Entergy (NYSE: ETR) said in a release that a controller device failed to regulate the flow of water into one of the plant’s four steam generators, which led to lowered water levels. Backup systems at the plant deployed as designed and the unit was safely shut down. Unit 2 continued to run at full power.
Non-categorized event in USA on Wednesday, 08 January, 2014 at 04:27 (04:27 AM) UTC.
Description
Police and firefighters in Colonial Heights were called out to three different parts of the city Sunday for reports of mysterious sounds. Some call them booms while others referred to them as explosions. Some said the noises were so intense that they rattled their homes. "It's a loud, loud boom," Clint Lanier, who lives in Chesterfield County, told CBS 6 senior reporter Wayne Covil. "It' ain't no shotgun and it ain't no kind of gun. It's like an explosion." Sgt. Rob Ruxer with Colonial Heights police said dispatchers received at least three calls just before 5:30 p.m. Sunday from citizens in separate areas of the city about a loud noise. "There was a large boom. I thought it was thunder," Kelsey Barnes of Colonial Heights said. "It kind of shook the house a little bit, but I have no idea what it was." Officials have not been able to tie the booms to one specific area, but they have been reported for the past several weeks. "Well it definitely grabs your attention and you think, 'why on earth is that going on at this time?" said Carolyn Thompson of Colonial Heights. Those who have heard the boom said it does not happen again for several days - and the sound varies. John Thompson, who heard the boom In Colonial Heights, said it sounded like a Sonic Boom from a jet. He said he did not think it was fireworks because there was only one boom. Colonial Heights residents Susan Crane, who also lives in, said she was watching TV when she heard the boom Sunday. "I've heard it numerous times," Crane said. "I usually get up and look out my door, like I'm going to see something, but there's nothing to see." CBS 6 News checked area surveillance cameras across the city and could not find sign of the boom. With every recurrence, there has been no revelation about what or who is behind them. Colonial Heights Fire Chief A.G. Moore said his department does not have any additional leads about what is actually the noise folks are hearing from Chester to southern Chesterfield and Colonial Heights. On social media there is a lot of speculation about what could be causing the booms.
243. flsky
Quoting 238. Skyepony:
Ian at 60kts. Forecast to go to 100kts by NOAA.


Nice looking storm.
Quoting 224. GeoffreyWPB:


Temps going up. Now 67.3.


Topped out here at 68.9F Oops think I already said that....lol
Does anyone have a link to storm damage reports from the NE blizzard?

Thx
Quoting 237. trunkmonkey:


I believe in climate change, it's been changing since time began, humans contribute some, nature contributes the majority, IMO!

With that said why is it OK for the GW crowd, to raid my pocketbook with taxes to re-distribute my hard earned money!
If the GW crowd is honest, and say,read my lips NO new taxes, I'd be more in favor of it.
But with the Corrupt EPA, skipping money to their friends, grants, congress funneling money to their cronies for pet projects that make them rich, while I'm getting poorer, I ain't for it one bit!!
I look at it from a different perspective, being a minority with roots from South America I believe in C02 enhanced AGW mainly because the reality is that when you look at the production of vehicles what do vehicles release into the atmosphere? Really ever since steamships and locomotives CO2 levels have increased. It just makes sense and all of those were produced from the human hands. It's a beautiful and ugly thing at the same time. However, I don't think we are doomed and the Earth will cool again, just probably not in the near term.
Quoting 242. Skyepony:
Non-categorized event in USA on Wednesday, 08 January, 2014 at 04:27 (04:27 AM) UTC.
Description
Police and firefighters in Colonial Heights were called out to three different parts of the city Sunday for reports of mysterious sounds. Some call them booms while others referred to them as explosions. Some said the noises were so intense that they rattled their homes. "It's a loud, loud boom," Clint Lanier, who lives in Chesterfield County, told CBS 6 senior reporter Wayne Covil. "It' ain't no shotgun and it ain't no kind of gun. It's like an explosion." Sgt. Rob Ruxer with Colonial Heights police said dispatchers received at least three calls just before 5:30 p.m. Sunday from citizens in separate areas of the city about a loud noise. "There was a large boom. I thought it was thunder," Kelsey Barnes of Colonial Heights said. "It kind of shook the house a little bit, but I have no idea what it was." Officials have not been able to tie the booms to one specific area, but they have been reported for the past several weeks. "Well it definitely grabs your attention and you think, 'why on earth is that going on at this time?" said Carolyn Thompson of Colonial Heights. Those who have heard the boom said it does not happen again for several days - and the sound varies. John Thompson, who heard the boom In Colonial Heights, said it sounded like a Sonic Boom from a jet. He said he did not think it was fireworks because there was only one boom. Colonial Heights residents Susan Crane, who also lives in, said she was watching TV when she heard the boom Sunday. "I've heard it numerous times," Crane said. "I usually get up and look out my door, like I'm going to see something, but there's nothing to see." CBS 6 News checked area surveillance cameras across the city and could not find sign of the boom. With every recurrence, there has been no revelation about what or who is behind them. Colonial Heights Fire Chief A.G. Moore said his department does not have any additional leads about what is actually the noise folks are hearing from Chester to southern Chesterfield and Colonial Heights. On social media there is a lot of speculation about what could be causing the booms.


Cryoseisms or frost quake???

Link

Edit: Probably hasn't been cold enough long enough though.
Quoting 246. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I look at it from a different perspective, being a minority with roots from South America I believe in C02 enhanced AGW mainly because the reality is that when you look at the production of vehicles what do vehicles release into the atmosphere? Really ever since steamships and locomotives CO2 levels have increased. It just makes sense and all of those were produced from the human hands. It's a beautiful and ugly thing at the same time. However, I don't think we are doomed and the Earth will cool again, just probably not in the near term.


I 'believe' in AGW because of a thing called "physics".
Quoting 230. BaltimoreBrian:
Grothar may remember the Lawrence Welk intro.


Hey, I remember that intro, the Parents used to have that on.
Quoting 248. Astrometeor:


I 'believe' in AGW because of a thing called "physics".
Well that too. I forgot to add smokestacks as a another producer of CO2.
Quoting 138. barbamz
Wow, all I can say from a long time lurker is thanks for that video. Absolutely amazing and something I have never heard or seen before...
Is there any place on the globe that's been consistently cooler than average over the last, say 25 - 30 years?
Quoting 247. ChillinInTheKeys:


Cryoseisms or frost quake???

Link

Edit: Probably hasn't been cold enough long enough though.


Checked at that facebook page. The only thing worth noting was the locals had said it's has been much too warm for frost quakes. It's been on their local CBS news for a few weeks.
Quoting 252. BahaHurican:
Is there any place on the globe that's been consistently cooler than average over the last, say 25 - 30 years?
Antarctica?

Antarctica is the coldest of Earth's continents. The coldest natural temperature ever recorded on Earth was −89.2 °C (−128.6 °F) at the Soviet (now Russian) Vostok Station in Antarctica on 21 July 1983.[45] For comparison, this is 11 °C (20 °F) colder than subliming dry ice. Antarctica is a frozen desert with little precipitation; the South Pole itself receives less than 10 cm (4 in) per year, on average. Temperatures reach a minimum of between −80 °C (−112 °F) and −90 °C (−130 °F) in the interior in winter and reach a maximum of between 5 °C (41 °F) and 15 °C (59 °F) near the coast in summer. Sunburn is often a health issue as the snow surface reflects almost all of the ultraviolet light falling on it
As severe winter weather begins to subside, the American Red Cross is asking all eligible blood and platelet donors to help offset a weather-related shortfall in donations. Residents in the unaffected areas of Oregon and Washington can help to boost donations immediately.

Approximately 280 blood drives across 25 states were canceled across the U.S. due to snow and extreme cold. The blood drive cancellations resulted in a shortfall of nearly 8, 400 blood and platelet donations since Jan. 2.
Dr. Masters should have invited Bill Nye on NBC news tonight..the science guy said recently the cold snap was in part due to Global Warming and we should see many more polar vortex frequently in the future..

and then you wonder why there are skeptics..

Bill Nye on polar vortex: Weather of the future?
Text Size
Published: Tuesday, 7 Jan 2014 | 2:23 PM ET


Quoting 212. Astrometeor:


Okay. Thanks Isaac. Tell them they have created a very confused Nashvillian.
The airport prolly moved as the city expanded. That's almost certainly true of the other cities people have mentioned, and certainly is true even here in Nassau, where what used to be the airport in the 1930s is now the site of the National Sporting Complex.

Quoting 234. VAstorms:



What are you talking about? The weather almost everywhere but the northeast US is abnormally warm and dry including here in the Southwest. Nothing is healing to my knowledge.
This was part of a discussion about the slowdown / halting of the Gulf Stream and resultant cooling in Europe. I think what he was implying was that the cooling of Europe and the Northern Atlantic in general would be a way of "healing" the planet by offsetting the overheating caused by AGW.

Quoting 254. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Antarctica?

Antarctica is the coldest of Earth's continents. The coldest natural temperature ever recorded on Earth was −89.2 °C (−128.6 °F) at the Soviet (now Russian) Vostok Station in Antarctica on 21 July 1983.[45] For comparison, this is 11 °C (20 °F) colder than subliming dry ice. Antarctica is a frozen desert with little precipitation; the South Pole itself receives less than 10 cm (4 in) per year, on average. Temperatures reach a minimum of between −80 °C (−112 °F) and −90 °C (−130 °F) in the interior in winter and reach a maximum of between 5 °C (41 °F) and 15 °C (59 °F) near the coast in summer. Sunburn is often a health issue as the snow surface reflects almost all of the ultraviolet light falling on it
I see all that, but do we have a record there long enough to say there's been a cooling trend? I'm not being facetious or tongue-in-cheek. I'm really curious.
BTW, anybody else looking at the beta forecast page? I'm going to try to get it on my phone right now...
Quoting 257. ncstorm:

Why are there skeptics?
Quoting 260. BahaHurican:
BTW, anybody else looking at the beta forecast page? I'm going to try to get it on my phone right now...


I looked at it earlier, I thought it looked pretty good and I gave them my input on what I wanted to see added.
Quoting 237. trunkmonkey:

I haven't gotten my cut of the "GW crowds" pocket-picking. Please Wumail me with how you plan to rectify this oversight. TIA

The rest of your screed was pretty much fantasy and needs no rebuttal.

...but I wants my money.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #16
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN, CATEGORY THREE (07F)
12:00 PM FST January 9 2014
======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ian (970 hPa) located at 16.7S 176.7W has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots. Position good based on hourly multispectral visible/enhanced infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 3 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
======================
20 NM of the center

Storm Force Winds
===================
30 NM of the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
60 NM of the center in northern semi-circle and within 45 NM of the center elsewhere

Organization has significantly improved in past 12 hours. Deep convection persistent in the last 15 hours. Cloud tops cooling. Primary bands tightly wrapping around the low level circulation center. Eye partially discernible on visible imagery. The system remains in a low sheared environment under an upper diffluent region with fair outflow to the east and south. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. System is moving eastward on the southern periphery of the near equatorial ridge situated to the north of the system.

Dvorak analysis based on embedded center B surrounding yielding DT=5.0, MET=5.0, and PT=4.5. Final Dvorak intensity based on PT.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24 HRS

The consensus of global models agree on a southeastward movement with gradual intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 17.0S 176.0W - 80 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 17.7S 175.1W - 90 knots (CAT 4)
48 HRS: 20.2S 173.3W - 80 knots (CAT 3)

Tropical Cyclone Ian Watches/Warnings (Tonga Island)
=================================================
A Tropical Cyclone Alert remains in force for Ha'apai and Va'vau group and Niuas

A Strong Wind Warning remains in force for Va'vau and Ha'apai group and Niuas
This is for Chucktown.

The Greenhouse Effect
2014-01-09 00:03 UTC S3 (Strong) Solar Radiation Storm In Progress

The ongoing S2 (Moderate) Solar Radiation Storm has intensified to an S3 (Strong) event as of 2320 UTC (6:20 p.m. EST) today, January 8. Protons should stay at this same approximate level for the next few hours, then likely take another jump with the passage of the shock ahead of the CME, expected to occur around 0900 UTC (4:00 a.m. EST) tomorrow, January 9. However, this increase is not expected to exceed the S3 level. The CME is forecast to set off G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm activity through January 9 and 10. Aurora watchers should be ready; updates here as things unfold.


Source
Quoting 252. BahaHurican:
Is there any place on the globe that's been consistently cooler than average over the last, say 25 - 30 years?

A couple of spots, actually.

Quoting 257. ncstorm:
Dr. Masters should have invited Bill Nye on NBC news tonight..the science guy said recently the cold snap was in part due to Global Warming and we should see many more polar vortex frequently in the future..

and then you wonder why there are skeptics..

Bill Nye on polar vortex: Weather of the future?
Text Size
Published: Tuesday, 7 Jan 2014 | 2:23 PM ET



Are you saying that there are "skeptics" because some people don't know what a question mark means?

That would be an interesting explanation...if it holds up to scrutiny.
XD Seeing local news talk about Baltimore... their pipes are soo old, it might be better if all of them burst so the city can get modern pipes. Surprised more haven't burst.
Quoting 269. Doppler22:
XD Seeing local news talk about Baltimore... their pipes are soo old, it might be better if all of them burst so the city can get modern pipes. Surprised more haven't burst.


Makes me wonder what would happen if we had a cold snap like Jan 1994.
Quoting 266. Astrometeor:
2014-01-09 00:03 UTC S3 (Strong) Solar Radiation Storm In Progress

The ongoing S2 (Moderate) Solar Radiation Storm has intensified to an S3 (Strong) event as of 2320 UTC (6:20 p.m. EST) today, January 8. Protons should stay at this same approximate level for the next few hours, then likely take another jump with the passage of the shock ahead of the CME, expected to occur around 0900 UTC (4:00 a.m. EST) tomorrow, January 9. However, this increase is not expected to exceed the S3 level. The CME is forecast to set off G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm activity through January 9 and 10. Aurora watchers should be ready; updates here as things unfold.


Source


I think a G4 geomagnetic storm would be the best bet for me to see the Northern Lights.
It's almost time for me to go back to Western North Carolina...

Quoting 270. BaltimoreBrian:


Makes me wonder what would happen if we had a cold snap like Jan 1994.

The city might have been shut down due to all the bursts. Some family of mine travel through Baltimore on a daily basis and all the road closures from pipe bursts can get annoying. So they should just replace the whole thing. Expensive, yes... but it may save more $ in the long run.
you know..you guys are smart..I'm sure you were able to interpret my meaning but for those who seem to have some confusion as to understanding of why I said there were skeptics..below is my explanation..have a good night..talk to you all tomorrow..

you have two doctors in Science who are both advocate for global warming and informing the masses..Both have national platforms to broadcast their beliefs to millions of people..

Dr. Masters was on NBC tonight disputing the claim from denialists that the cold air received in the US was proof that global warming didn't exist..

Bill Nye was on MSNBC the other night stating just the opposite..

If I was someone on the fence of believing in global warming and hearing two different theories of what is a product of global warming and what isn't..I would be one confuse soul and would doubt due to the conflicting explanations coming from the global warming side..



The source of all this activity is AR1944, one of the biggest sunspots of the past decade. The sprawling active region is more than 200,000 km wide and contains dozens of dark cores. Its primary core, all by itself, is large enough to swallow Earth three times over. To set the scale of the behemoth, Karzaman Ahmad inserted a picture of Earth in the corner of this picture he took on Jan. 7th from the Langkawi National Observatory in Malaysia:



More flares are in the offing. The sunspot has an unstable 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that is likely to erupt again today. NOAA forecasters estimate an 80% chance of M-class flares and a 50% chance of X-flares on Jan. 8th.

www.spaceweather.com
Quoting 271. Doppler22:


I think a G4 geomagnetic storm would be the best bet for me to see the Northern Lights.


Here is what a G3 does:

G 3 Strong
Power systems: voltage corrections may be required, false alarms triggered on some protection devices.

Spacecraft operations: surface charging may occur on satellite components, drag may increase on low-Earth-orbit satellites, and corrections may be needed for orientation problems.

Other systems: intermittent satellite navigation and low-frequency radio navigation problems may occur, HF radio may be intermittent, and aurora has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon (typically 50° geomagnetic lat.)

I think you would only need a G3 (maybe upper-end). G4s aren't pretty.

Geomagnetic storms
Quoting 272. Bluestorm5:
It's almost time for me to go back to Western North Carolina...


Thanks for posting that. I miss the place -not Asheville specifically, but western NC.

I'll probably go up there this summer for a couple of weeks.
Quoting 274. ncstorm:
Dr. Masters was on NBC tonight disputing the claim from denialists that the cold air received in the US was proof that global warming didn't exist..

Bill Nye was on MSNBC the other night stating just the opposite..

If I was someone on the fence of believing in global warming and hearing two different theories of what is a product of global warming and what isn't..I would be one confuse soul and would doubt due to the conflicting explanations coming from the global warming side..




I don't watch TV news, so I saw neither interview. However, I think that you are thoroughly confused by what was said.
Quoting 277. Birthmark:

Thanks for posting that. I miss the place -not Asheville specifically, but western NC.

I'll probably go up there this summer for a couple of weeks.
I personally don't care much for Asheville, but the whole region of Western NC is beautiful...
Nathan #275--those sunspots look strikingly like some kinds of melanomas. No I won't post a comparison pic ;)
Nathan what would the Carrington Event have rated?
Quoting 281. BaltimoreBrian:
Nathan what would the Carrington Event have rated?


Um...I think that goes beyond the Space Weather Prediction Center's rating system. That was a nasty storm. We're lucky it didn't happen today, we'd be hurting really badly. History says it was so bad, telegraph operators' paper caught fire.
Quoting 276. Astrometeor:


Here is what a G3 does:

G 3 Strong
Power systems: voltage corrections may be required, false alarms triggered on some protection devices.

Spacecraft operations: surface charging may occur on satellite components, drag may increase on low-Earth-orbit satellites, and corrections may be needed for orientation problems.

Other systems: intermittent satellite navigation and low-frequency radio navigation problems may occur, HF radio may be intermittent, and aurora has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon (typically 50° geomagnetic lat.)

I think you would only need a G3 (maybe upper-end). G4s aren't pretty.

Geomagnetic storms


I saw the scale, I am just saying it would be more guaranteed with a G4. Although you are probably right I might see one with a G3.
Quoting 267. Birthmark:

A couple of spots, actually.



its really interesting how the north pole is getting so much hotter than the south pole
90W is gone & 91W is new. The intensify blob on the east side of that moisture rich area seems to be winning now. Last gfs run really brought this up through most of Philippines, weak but probably moist. Tempted to throw all that out since the model doesn't look initiated in the right spot.
Quoting 282. Astrometeor:


Um...I think that goes beyond the Space Weather Prediction Center's rating system. That was a nasty storm. We're lucky it didn't happen today, we'd be hurting really badly. History says it was so bad, telegraph operators' paper caught fire.


"In June 2013, a joint venture from researchers at Lloyd's of London and Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) in the United States used data from the Carrington Event to estimate the current cost of a similar event to the world economy at $2.6 trillion"
287. flsky
Quoting 253. Skyepony:


Checked at that facebook page. The only thing worth noting was the locals had said it's has been much too warm for frost quakes. It's been on their local CBS news for a few weeks.

Any fracking going on there? Maybe underground bunkers are collapsing?
Quoting 287. flsky:

Any fracking going on there? Maybe underground bunkers are collapsing?

There is a military base. The media confirmed it wasn't them.
Ian..Looking east of his forecast points..

Quoting 286. Doppler22:


"In June 2013, a joint venture from researchers at Lloyd's of London and Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) in the United States used data from the Carrington Event to estimate the current cost of a similar event to the world economy at $2.6 trillion"


That's an interesting cost estimate since the world infrastructure could be near-destroyed due to massive surge loads on our electrical grid.

They say in a Carrington event, you would have to put your electronics either in a lead bunker or a microwave to keep the dangerous energized particles out. I forget where I heard that from, though.


RSMC Nadi track for Severe Tropical Cyclone Ian
Quoting Astrometeor:


Um...I think that goes beyond the Space Weather Prediction Center's rating system. That was a nasty storm. We're lucky it didn't happen today, we'd be hurting really badly. History says it was so bad, telegraph operators' paper caught fire.


Some amazing descriptions of the northern lights, this from Scientific American:

Seventeen hours later in the Americas a second wave of auroras turned night to day as far south as Panama. People could read the newspaper by their crimson and green light. Gold miners in the Rocky Mountains woke up and ate breakfast at 1 a.m., thinking the sun had risen on a cloudy day.
Quoting 284. nwobilderburg:


its really interesting how the north pole is getting so much hotter than the south pole


Does it surprise you that Seattle is so much hotter than Minneapolis?
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Nathan what would the Carrington Event have rated?


I was wondering the same thing BB. I was only able to find this from The 1895 space weather event: Then and now, published by EW Cliver in Advances in Space Research, 2006:

Recently, quantitative estimates have been made for both the soft X-ray and solar energetic proton (SEP) output of the 1859 event. Cliver and Svalgaard (2004) used the amplitude of the SFE associated with the Carrington flare to infer a peak flare soft X-ray class of >X1O (intensity >10-3 W m-2 ), placing it conservatively within the largest 100 flares of the past 150 years.

If anyone has more perspective on the Carrington Event, I'd love to read it. To quote a favorite series of mine, "All this has happened before, and all of it will happen again".
Ian is being far underestimated. I'd venture to say it's 95-100kt at this moment.

Ian warning update for the island of Tonga

Fiji Meteorological Services
Special Weather Bulletin Number TWELVE for Tonga
Severe Tropical Cyclone IAN
5:05 AM UTC January 9 2014
==============================================

At 4:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ian, Category 4 (960 hPa) located at 16.8S 176.6W or about 185 NM northwest of Va'vau and 220 NM northwest of Ha'apai has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with momentary gusts up to 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 3 knots.

A Gale Warning is now in force for Va'vau group

A Tropical Cyclone Alert remains in force for Ha'apai group

A Strong Wind Warning remains in force for the Ha'apai group and Niuas
There shouldn't be confusion. Confusion is only there because some refuse to look at the irrefutable proof of AGW. There will be extremes more often on all accounts due to what we've done. That means more severe drought, flooding, storms, and outbreaks of extreme cold as we witnessed in Europe two years ago and now this year here. Globally it's a much different story, November was the warmest globally ever; while we had our coldest November nationally in twenty years. As the jet stream is changing and will do so more dramatically in the future, these extremes can only amplify. Strong opinions against AGW based on ego, fantasy, and agenda, will never trump science; except in legislation. Unfortunately, legislation is the machine to bring change and moneyed interests keep real change but a dream at this point.
Quoting 267. Birthmark:

A couple of spots, actually.

Thank you very much. This is the kind of thing I was thinking about.

So. The EPac cooling seems in line with the negative PDO phase we've entered into relatively recently.

The cooling around the Antarctic fits what Caleb was thinking. It also fits the reports we keep getting about increased sea ice extent at that pole.

If we are looking at Polar oscillating pattern similar the PDO, we should be able to see some kind of evidence that when the North Pole was heavily ice blocked 150 years ago, the South Pole was experiencing a period of relative warmth. This would be a longer pattern, but still discernible, yes? If we don't see such a pattern reflected, that localized cooling might have some other implications...

OK Dr. Masters, why don't you go ahead and rename this blog "man made global warming blog"?
When a paragraph header reads "Not a historical
cold wave", that's pretty telling. A little cold weather and all are on the defensive.
This blog has become so obviously agenda driven.
Really disappointing.
Quoting 289. Skyepony:
Ian..Looking east of his forecast points..

East of track is good, yes?

Quoting 299. SkulDouggery:
OK Dr. Masters, why don't you go ahead and rename this blog "man made global warming blog"?
When a paragraph header reads "Not a historical
cold wave", that's pretty telling. A little cold weather and all are on the defensive.
This blog has become so obviously agenda driven.
Really disappointing.


This was not a historical cold snap. Pre 1990, cold snaps like this occurred once every five or ten years. It's notable because we've not experienced cold like this in the last twenty years. If truth is the agenda then this is a blog where Jeff tries hard to convey that truth. The real agenda is the entrenched interests spending through the roof to stop any legislation to really confront AGW. The agenda against the truth is dangerous. The agenda of truth Jeff presents is righteous.
Quoting 301. Tribucanes:


This was not a historical cold snap. Pre 1990, cold snaps like this occurred once every five or ten years. It's notable because we've not experienced cold like this in the last twenty years. If truth is the agenda then this is a blog where Jeff tries hard to convey that truth. The real agenda is the entrenched interests spending through the roof to stop any legislation to really confront AGW. The agenda against the truth is dangerous. The agenda of truth Jeff presents is righteous.


what does Bill Nye truth represent?
Quoting 278. Birthmark:

I don't watch TV news, so I saw neither interview. However, I think that you are thoroughly confused by what was said.


maybe you should take up watching news because you have two different interpretations coming from your side..how can you offer an opinion on my comment if you haven't even watch either one..

but I'm the one confused..okay
Quoting 302. ncstorm:


what does Bill Nye truth represent?


Bill Nye may well be right, and I believe he is. More extremes will occur and this doesn't exclude cold. We'll see extreme cold in places in the world in the future, mostly the US and Europe. Globally we are still warming and far above historical averages. Hence November being the warmest globally ever, while we were the coldest here in the the US that we've been in twenty years. More regular polar vortex's are not out of the question and we may even see parts of the US and Europe become far more cold in the winter. It still all ties into AGW and GW. Extremes is the new game in town and cold is a player no doubt.
There are multiple opinions on this subject. Bill Nye is only one. Follow the link quoted here.

Quoting 133. Naga5000:


Well, I'll post one of those articles because it's an interesting read. :) Link "Polar Vortex in U.S. May be Example of Global Warming"


It seems you have trouble with ambiguity. Other people don't.
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 05-20132014
10:00 AM RET January 9 2014
==========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (997 hPa) located at 22.0S 42.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving southeast at 12 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
========================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 200 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Dvorak intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS 25.0S 43.2E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropical Modérée
24 HRS 30.0S 43.4E - Depression Post-Tropicale
48 HRS 35.5S 45.6E - Depression Post-Tropicale

Additional Information
=========================

For the last 18 hours, the system has clearly organized. A convective band wraps on a 1/4 wrap within the north-eastern part of the system and the clouds tops has cooled. For the latest hours, a cluster persists in the vicinity of the low level center. The system has reached the tropical depression stage. The pressure shows a fall of 3 to 4 hPa on 24 hours at Morombe and Europa. The strongest winds are located within the northeastern quadrant.

Undergoing the monsoon flow steering influence, the system is expected to track south southeastward over the next 12 hours then southward towards a transiting polar trough in the southwest. So, today and tonight, it should go along the southwestern coasts of Madagascar and bring heavy rains and strong winds over the western frontage of the large island (137 mm on 6 hours have been measured at Morombe).

Now, in relationship, with upper level ridge aloft, the system is situated within a low sheared environment. Poleward upper level divergence is well sustained by an upper level cut-off located south of Madagascar. The system may deepen during the day and should reach the minimal stage of moderate tropical storm.

Friday, as the system will track southward towards the aforementioned polar trough, the interaction with the upper level cut-off is expected to become negative ("bad trough") in relationship with a strengthening northerly then northwesterly vertical wind shear. The system is expected to weaken. Saturday, it should merge with a depression moving in the south within the subtropical area.
Quoting 303. ncstorm:


maybe you should take up watching news because you have two different interpretations coming from your side..how can you offer an opinion on my comment if you haven't even watch either one..

but I'm the one confused..okay


Here are the statements that you wrote concerning Nye and Masters:

"Dr. Masters was on NBC tonight disputing the claim from denialists that the cold air received in the US was proof that global warming didn't exist.."

"Bill Nye was on MSNBC the other night stating just the opposite.."


Dr. Masters' statement was to point out that cold weather doesn't disprove AGW (particularly in winter when we expect cold weather.)

Bill Nye's statement was really a question, several really, based on the link you provided. Nye in no way conflicted with Dr. Masters. I think that maybe you are confused about a rhetorical question contained in the Nye interview.
Quoting 284. nwobilderburg:


its really interesting how the north pole is getting so much hotter than the south pole

They are vastly different places with vastly different geographies. Their only real similarities are how far they are from the Equator and, as a consequence, their remarkable cold.
Quoting 299. SkulDouggery:
OK Dr. Masters, why don't you go ahead and rename this blog "man made global warming blog"?
When a paragraph header reads "Not a historical
cold wave", that's pretty telling. A little cold weather and all are on the defensive.
This blog has become so obviously agenda driven.
Really disappointing.

Your disappointment aside, is that paragraph header inaccurate?
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #17
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN, CATEGORY FOUR (07F)
18:00 PM FST January 9 2014
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ian (960 hPa) located at 16.8S 176.4W has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots. Position good based on hourly multispectral enhanced infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 2 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
======================
20 NM of the center

Storm Force Winds
===================
40 NM of the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
70 NM of the center

Organization has improved significantly in the past 12 hours. Deep convection persistent. Cloud top cooling in past 6 hours. Eye discernible in visible/infrared imagery but is partially cloud filled. The system remains in a low sheared environment under an upper ridge with fair outflow to the east and south. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. System is currently located in a weak steering environment, between a subtropical ridge located to the south and near-equatorial ridge located to the north of the system.

Dvorak analysis based on eye pattern with B eye and W surround, subtracting 0.5 for eye adjustment yielding DT=5.5, MET=5.5 and PT=5.5. Final Dvorak intensity based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D2.0/24 HRS

The consensus of global models agree on a southeastward movement with gradual intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 17.3S 175.6W - 90 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS: 18.1S 174.8W - 90 knots (CAT 4)
48 HRS: 20.6S 173.3W - 80 knots (CAT 3)

Tropical Cyclone Ian Watches/Warnings (Tonga Island)
=================================================
A Gale Warning is now in force for Va'vau group

A Tropical Cyclone Alert remains in force for Ha'apai group

A Strong Wind Warning remains in force for the Ha'apai group and Niuas
Still Waiting.

As of this update at 09:30 UTC (4:30am EST). the expected coronal mass ejection (CME) has yet to be detected. The solar wind speed as measured by the ACE space craft is currently steady near 400 km/s. Low energy proton levels measured by the EPAM (Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor) instrument on board the ACE spacecraft have been slowly increasing over the past 6 hours. This indicates that the expected arrival of the plasma cloud past ACE could still be in the works. Typically when a shock front approaches, particle levels will spike or swell before an impact, and will then gradually decrease in the aftermath.

Stay tuned to www.solarham.com for the latest information regarding the potential CME impact. Link
Quoting 270. BaltimoreBrian:


Makes me wonder what would happen if we had a cold snap like Jan 1994.


How bout the cold snap of 1977?

Lets see, cold snap of 1977, 1981, 1983, 1994, 2914,
Humm, I see a cycle here of changing weather.
I wonder if we had warm years too?

And how bout drought year?
And maybe severe storm years?
And flooding years?
Then there's the normal weather years that just don't make the news or blogs!!!
We must not forget the active Hurricane years, and last year where we didn't have any hurricanes.
Weather is interesting, and always changing, I love weather change, or Could this mean, maybe our weather comes in cycles?
I just don't want Government re-distributing wealth in the name of weather!!!
Scientists to examine Pacific's 'global chimney'.

Even though few people live in the western tropical Pacific Ocean, these remote waters affect billions of people by shaping climate and air chemistry worldwide. Next week, leading scientists will head to the region to better understand its influence on the atmosphere—including how that may change in coming decades if storms over the Pacific become more powerful with rising global temperatures.

With the warmest ocean waters on Earth, the western tropical Pacific fuels a sort of chimney whose output has global reach. The region feeds heat and moisture into huge clusters of thunderstorms that loft gases and particles into the stratosphere, where they spread out over the entire planet and influence the climate.


Link
Quoting trunkmonkey:


?
I just don't want Government re-distributing wealth in the name of weather!!!


And Government giving tax breaks to the energy commpanies in the name of ......?
Good Morning....................
Maybe some showers today here................
7-day Tampa Bay area.....................
Quoting 306. HadesGodWyvern:
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 05-20132014
10:00 AM RET January 9 2014
==========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (997 hPa) located at 22.0S 42.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving southeast at 12 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
========================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 200 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Dvorak intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS 25.0S 43.2E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropical Modérée
24 HRS 30.0S 43.4E - Depression Post-Tropicale
48 HRS 35.5S 45.6E - Depression Post-Tropicale

Additional Information
=========================

For the last 18 hours, the system has clearly organized. A convective band wraps on a 1/4 wrap within the north-eastern part of the system and the clouds tops has cooled. For the latest hours, a cluster persists in the vicinity of the low level center. The system has reached the tropical depression stage. The pressure shows a fall of 3 to 4 hPa on 24 hours at Morombe and Europa. The strongest winds are located within the northeastern quadrant.

Undergoing the monsoon flow steering influence, the system is expected to track south southeastward over the next 12 hours then southward towards a transiting polar trough in the southwest. So, today and tonight, it should go along the southwestern coasts of Madagascar and bring heavy rains and strong winds over the western frontage of the large island (137 mm on 6 hours have been measured at Morombe).

Now, in relationship, with upper level ridge aloft, the system is situated within a low sheared environment. Poleward upper level divergence is well sustained by an upper level cut-off located south of Madagascar. The system may deepen during the day and should reach the minimal stage of moderate tropical storm.

Friday, as the system will track southward towards the aforementioned polar trough, the interaction with the upper level cut-off is expected to become negative ("bad trough") in relationship with a strengthening northerly then northwesterly vertical wind shear. The system is expected to weaken. Saturday, it should merge with a depression moving in the south within the subtropical area.
Hmmm... that's the dry side of the island... could cause some flooding conditions there...
Morning everybody, btw. It's been raining here, which is not happy-making, but expected given the forecasts we have been seeing.

When's the next cold supposed to arrive? Monday again?
Quoting 299. SkulDouggery:
OK Dr. Masters, why don't you go ahead and rename this blog "man made global warming blog"?
When a paragraph header reads "Not a historical
cold wave", that's pretty telling. A little cold weather and all are on the defensive.
This blog has become so obviously agenda driven.
Really disappointing.



Looks like your on the wrong Blog- No climate deniers wanted here. Go away.
Quoting 308. Birthmark:

They are vastly different places with vastly different geographies. Their only real similarities are how far they are from the Equator and, as a consequence, their remarkable cold.
So even more interesting that one is heating up so much relative to the other. One is assuming their different geographies are contributing to their differing reactions to changes in the atmosphere?
Gotta run. I hope everyone has a good day today.

Later!
Seems to be a hostile climate in this blog...
325. VR46L
I am not the greatest user or the most knowledgeable regarding Radar, have you seen Ireland Radar images But what is going on here ???? Is there Snow at East area of Panhandle ?





326. VR46L
Quoting 324. Thunderfan:
Seems to be a hostile climate in this blog...


Whenever Climate comes up it is LOL!!

Good Morning Folks!
Quoting 324. Thunderfan:
Seems to be a hostile climate in this blog...


If you're not "all-in" with the AGW theory, there is hostility from some quarters. Mostly subtle, occasionally overt.
GFS for this afternoon.................
Terrible weather down here in Fort Myers. Yesterday consisted of drizzle and light rain all day.

Where's my liquid sunshine?
allman brothers are disbanding after 2014 guess 45 yrs is enough for them. praying for good weather at wanne music festival to see them for the last time.
Quoting 321. meanpete:



Looks like your on the wrong Blog- No climate deniers wanted here. Go away.


Are you the blog police Pete?
Quoting 327. PensacolaDoug:


If you're not "all-in" with the AGW theory, there is hostility from some quarters. Mostly subtle, occasionally overt.


Agree
You should be able to agree or disagree with GW and submit your comments, information, or opinions without fear of being ganged up on or attacked.

I'm a science teacher and teach GW in my classroom, but I also question some of the comments or information supporting it.

But on the other hand, if a member is just trying to cause trouble by making crazy statements, then I can understand the frustration with some members about their comments.

I'm off to work. Be back later. You guys play nice.
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 42 degrees and supposed to warm up to 58, which I'll believe when I see it as they haven't been close to being right lately.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Slow-Poached Eggs with Shrimp and cheesy Grits, regular or whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, crepes filled with cream cheese and strawberries, topped with whipped cream, eggs and hash browns, Egg, Cheese and chorizo Quesadillas, Apple Pie Breakfast Cakes, bagels with cream cheese and jelly or lox, cinnamon streusel muffins, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!

Quoting 327. PensacolaDoug:


If you're not "all-in" with the AGW theory, there is hostility from some quarters. Mostly subtle, occasionally overt.
And of course there's never hostility from the deniers side!
ROFL
Quoting 335. FLwolverine:

And of course there's never hostility from the deniers side!
ROFL


Anybody with a modicum of impartiality that follows this forum recognizes that the preponderance of abuse comes from the pro-AGW side of the debate.
Regardless, it's never appropriate to justify bad behavior by pointing to other bad behavior.
Interesting set up for day 3



good morning everyone
another day another 50 cents
Comma on NAM

Quoting 340. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


whats wrong V you not like that run
Quoting 342. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
whats wrong V you not like that run


It puts me in the freezer again. I was hoping for an average temperatured snowy winter. Not constant cold snaps.
Quoting 343. FunnelVortex:


It puts me in the freezer again. I was hoping for an average temperatured snowy winter. Not constant cold snaps.
its only jan we still got all of feb yet normally the coldest month of winter
Quoting 345. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its only jan we still got all of feb yet normally the coldest month of winter


I know Jan is the coldest moth, but I expected more snow action this winter. All the big systems have been in the east for some reason.

We had a promising snowy december, then it pretty much quit after Christmas.
Quoting 347. FunnelVortex:


I know Jan is the coldest moth, but I expected more snow action this winter. All the big systems have been in the east for some reason.

We had a promising snowy december, then it pretty much quit after Christmas.
march maybe a snowy month that's the transition month

and it don't snow when its bitter cold needs temps just below freezing mark for lots of snow



and at the moment forecast calls for a little snow tomorrow then whole lotta rain and warm temps for sat

they are now calling for a high of near 50 on sat for me can't see it but maybe it will be that warm

that will take away lots of the snow
57,chilly and raining here now..not warming up much,this rain and overcast needs to leave and the sun to come out here..maybe later huh...
Quoting 348. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
march maybe a snowy month that's the transition month

and it don't snow when its bitter cold needs temps just below freezing mark for lots of snow



and at the moment forecast calls for a little snow tomorrow then whole lotta rain and warm temps for sat

they are now calling for a high of near 50 on sat for me can't see it but maybe it will be that warm

that will take away lots of the snow


My forecast actually calls for 4 inches tomorrow. Hopefully it doesn't get too warm.
Latest Euro 168 hours.
Quoting 349. LargoFl:
57,chilly and raining here now..not warming up much,this rain and overcast needs to leave and the sun to come out here..maybe later huh...
Quoting 352. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yeah keeper real damp and chilly here,probably going on here for awhile
rain is needed here..this is our DRY season,so i guess the rain is a good thing..
Strong Great Lakes storm.?
Quoting 355. hydrus:
Strong Great Lakes storm.?


Hope so
Euro putting you back in freezer....


Quoting 358. 81611tbass:
Euro putting you back in freezer....




NAAAHHHH
East coast faces rising sea's and Gulfstream slows down................Link
Quoting 359. FunnelVortex:


NAAAHHHH

yea euro is most correct and putting u back in igloo. it be too cold for snow.
my best guess from what ive been reading is..all eyes should be on that gulfstream thru the next decade or so..especially north america and northern Europe...things could get interesting climate wise..
The Gulf Stream

The world's oceans move constantly. Ocean currents flow in complex patterns and are affected by the wind, the water's salinity and temperature, the shape of the ocean floor, and the earth's rotation.

The Gulf Stream is one of the strongest ocean currents in the world. It is driven by surface wind patterns and differences in water density. Surface water in the north Atlantic is cooled by winds from the Arctic. It becomes more salty and more dense and sinks to the ocean floor. The cold water then moves towards the equator where it will warm slowly. To replace the cold equator-bound water, the Gulf Stream moves warm water from the Gulf of Mexico north into the Atlantic.

the oceanThe Gulf Stream brings warmth to the UK and north-west Europe and is the reason we have mild winters. Without this steady stream of warmth the British Isles winters are estimated to be more than 5C cooler, bringing the average December temperature in London to about 2C.

At the end of the last Ice Age, when the ice sheet covering North America melted, the sudden increase in fresh water reduced the salinity of the north Atlantic surface water and therefore less 'dense water' sank and moved towards the equator. This reduced, or even shut-down completely, the warm Gulf Stream. Temperatures in north-west Europe fell by 5C in just a few decades.

Recent observations have shown that since 1950 there has been a decrease of 20% in the flow of cold water in the Faeroe Bank channel between Greenland and Scotland. This is one source of cold dense water that drives the density-based component of the Gulf Stream. There may be an increase in flow from other cold water sources, but, if not, it could be the start of the slow down of the Gulf Stream.

The IPCC believe it is very likely that the Gulf Stream will slow down during the 21st Century but very unlikely it will undergo a ‘large abrupt transition’. The average reduction predicted by the various models used is 25%. This slowing will have a cooling effect but the temperature will still increase in the region overall.

It suggests that the British Isles, especially western regions, will see a significantly smaller temperature increase than other areas of land mass.
Quoting 358. 81611tbass:
Euro putting you back in freezer....


we are coming out of the freezer into slightly chilled
Mike DeFino long range forecast. He is quite good.....Link
Quoting 355. hydrus:
Strong Great Lakes storm.?
thats good like that track puts it to my west iam on the warm side
everything starts to melt after today
Quoting 364. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we are coming out of the freezer into slightly chilled

you might correct. tigerosee agree with you . and better it get warmer for farmer.
Nice Job with the cherry pick of the Detroit numbers!

Using Wundergrounds OWN database of historical records, I went back to the first year I could find full year data and took the 10 years from that point.

1959-1968 winters.

Years Detroit hit below zero:

1959:2
1960:3
1961:3
1962:2
1963:11
1964:0
1965:1
1966:2
1967:2
1968:2

Average is 2.6 per year from 1959 to 1968 winter years.

Virtually not change and remember, this is without as much UHI as today.
Hello everyone, Low-temperature broken Tuesday morning:
14 in Mobile,Al: Previous record low 18
Quoting 371. jonger1150:
Nice Job with the cherry pick of the Detroit numbers!

Using Wundergrounds OWN database of historical records, I went back to the first year I could find full year data and took the 10 years from that point.

1959-1968 winters.

Years Detroit hit below zero:

1959:2
1960:3
1961:3
1962:2
1963:11
1964:0
1965:1
1966:2
1967:2
1968:2

Average is 2.6 per year from 1959 to 1968 winter years.

Virtually not change and remember, this is without as much UHI as today.
a most excellent point. it convenient to use their time frame 1970-2013 as it shows a arrow going down to bolster their agw arguement. but going back further it indicates that the numbers below 0 before 1970 were very scarce. bottom line yet another example of these cold times being cycles...but everyone like to spin numbers to illustrate agw trend to make better headline to get more people to read and click on article.
Quoting 81611tbass:
a most excellent point. it convenient to use their time frame 1970-2013 as it shows a arrow going down to bolster their agw arguement. but going back further it indicates that the numbers below 0 before 1970 were very scarce. bottom line yet another example of these cold times being cycles...but everyone like to spin numbers to illustrate agw trend to make better headline to get more people to read and click on article.


1969:1 time...

So the average leading up to that chart is a flat 2 times per year on average using 1959 to 1969.
Quoting jonger1150:
Nice Job with the cherry pick of the Detroit numbers!

Using Wundergrounds OWN database of historical records, I went back to the first year I could find full year data and took the 10 years from that point.

1959-1968 winters.

Years Detroit hit below zero:

1959:2
1960:3
1961:3
1962:2
1963:11
1964:0
1965:1
1966:2
1967:2
1968:2

Average is 2.6 per year from 1959 to 1968 winter years.

Virtually not change and remember, this is without as much UHI as today.


Quoting 375. jonger1150:


i know the doc don't think agw started in 1975...he got some splaing to do.
Quoting 371. jonger1150:
Nice Job with the cherry pick of the Detroit numbers!

Using Wundergrounds OWN database of historical records, I went back to the first year I could find full year data and took the 10 years from that point.

1959-1968 winters.

Years Detroit hit below zero:

1959:2
1960:3
1961:3
1962:2
1963:11
1964:0
1965:1
1966:2
1967:2
1968:2

Average is 2.6 per year from 1959 to 1968 winter years.

Virtually not change and remember, this is without as much UHI as today.
Are you hypothesizing that number of below zero days can be correlated to positive or negative PDO? because that would fit the years you pulled, IIRC...

Quoting 373. 81611tbass:
a most excellent point. it convenient to use their time frame 1970-2013 as it shows a arrow going down to bolster their agw arguement. but going back further it indicates that the numbers below 0 before 1970 were very scarce. bottom line yet another example of these cold times being cycles...but everyone like to spin numbers to illustrate agw trend to make better headline to get more people to read and click on article.



And then they wonder why the majority of the country doesn't believe them.
Quoting 364. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we are coming out of the freezer into slightly chilled


What about the closet? Are you coming out of that too?

--

If I hear one more, the "Grass is greener" jokes about Colorado... I'm gonna scream...
Quoting 353. LargoFl:
yeah keeper real damp and chilly here,probably going on here for awhile
Largo...Same here. I haven't seen a stretch of gloomy weather that lasted for so in years.
Quoting 381. PalmBeachWeather:
Largo...Same here. I haven't seen a stretch of gloomy weather that lasted for so in years.
You will have this on and off through the winter. Good morning PBW.
Quoting 382. hydrus:
You will have this on and off through the winter. Good morning PBW.
Good morning hydrus.
BTW, the sun is out, the cold is pretty much done for the time being, and it looks like we are back to the high of 84 regimen of last month.

This is a good weekend to come to Nassau if you are in one of those colder "nether" regions up north... lol
Quoting 382. hydrus:
You will have this on and off through the winter. Good morning PBW.
Where is "my" sun?
Quoting 381. PalmBeachWeather:
Largo...Same here. I haven't seen a stretch of gloomy weather that lasted for so in years.
Maybe the sun will come your way later today...
Quoting 379. Dakster:


What about the closet? Are you coming out of that too?

--

If I hear one more, the "Grass is greener" jokes about Colorado... I'm gonna scream...
Dak............Did ya hear the one about.......Nevermind
Quoting 385. PalmBeachWeather:
Where is "my" sun?
93 million or so miles away.
Quoting 388. hydrus:
93 million or so miles away.
Right...But I just need to rise about 3500 ft. and I will see it again....Damn Cumulous
Quoting 387. PalmBeachWeather:
Dak............Did ya hear the one about.......Nevermind


AAAAAAAAAAAaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhh!

I feel better now.

I guess it is the dreary days we have been having. Feels very tropical out too. A light rain ALL day long. High humidity. At least it isn't HOT out. Warm, but not HOT.
Have you heard the one about the recently retired FPL worker?

She was shocked when her first pension check came in the mail.
Quoting 388. hydrus:
93 million or so miles away.


91 million atm, we just hit perihelion.
Bring it

Quoting 297. Tribucanes:
There shouldn't be confusion. Confusion is only there because some refuse to look at the irrefutable proof of AGW. There will be extremes more often on all accounts due to what we've done. That means more severe drought, flooding, storms, and outbreaks of extreme cold as we witnessed in Europe two years ago and now this year here. Globally it's a much different story, November was the warmest globally ever; while we had our coldest November nationally in twenty years. As the jet stream is changing and will do so more dramatically in the future, these extremes can only amplify. Strong opinions against AGW based on ego, fantasy, and agenda, will never trump science; except in legislation. Unfortunately, legislation is the machine to bring change and moneyed interests keep real change but a dream at this point.


So you're saying that 2013, one of the least extreme weather years in recent history, is just an anomaly?
MAIN THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE WIND AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THE
ECMWF IS SUGGESTIVE OF AN OVERNIGHT HSLC SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBILITY AND THEN THE THREAT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
00Z.


I'm not sure I agree with them but here's to hoping
Quoting 394. aburttschell:


So you're saying that 2013, one of the least extreme weather years in recent history, is just an anomaly?
i would doubt he would be saying that. but they argue that least extreme is also indicator of agw. in other words least extreme means most extreme to them. you can't win. once you have sights set on way you want things to go with climate that is it.
Mans contribution to climate change started at the dawn of the industrial revolution. The Earths decay has excelerated in the last 50 years. The Atomosphere and our life giving troposphere are changing. The oceans marine life is dying from the over fertilizing of our land. 1 billion people rely on our oceans for food. Last year they started transfering over to land food. For the first time last year, we consumed more food on the Earth than we produced.
Quoting 334. aislinnpaps:
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 42 degrees and supposed to warm up to 58, which I'll believe when I see it as they haven't been close to being right lately.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Slow-Poached Eggs with Shrimp and cheesy Grits, regular or whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, crepes filled with cream cheese and strawberries, topped with whipped cream, eggs and hash browns, Egg, Cheese and chorizo Quesadillas, Apple Pie Breakfast Cakes, bagels with cream cheese and jelly or lox, cinnamon streusel muffins, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!


Well I'm hungry now!
Quoting 397. scott39:
Mans contibution to climate change started at the dawn of the industrial revolution. The Earths decay has excelerated in the last 50 years. The Atomosphere and our life giving troposphere are changing. The oceans marine life is dying from the over fertilizing of our land. 1 billion people rely on our oceans for food. Last year they started transfering over to land food. For the first time last year, we consumed more food on the Earth than we produced.

the troposhere and atmosphere is the same thing being that most weather takes place there. why would you say life giving troposphere AND atmosphere?
Quoting 399. 81611tbass:

the troposhere and atmosphere is the same thing being that most weather takes place there. why would you say life giving troposphere AND atmosphere?
Read that sentence again.
Quoting 400. scott39:
Read that sentence again.
the troposhere and atmosphere is the same thing being that most weather takes place there. why would you say life giving troposphere AND atmosphere?
Quoting 381. PalmBeachWeather:
Largo...Same here. I haven't seen a stretch of gloomy weather that lasted for so in years.
yeah just came back from shopping, steady light rain but for a few seconds the sun popped thru..then vanished again..rains back..
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
as far as land food goes, we really need to keep an eye on Canada's temps and weather..they ARE one of the worlds Top food producers..should their temps and weather go down hill the world is in big trouble.
big warm for the east coast this weekend with rain with temp around 50s to 60s
ECMWF certainly is more robust.
Quoting 394. aburttschell:


So you're saying that 2013, one of the least extreme weather years in recent history, is just an anomaly?
I would say that 2013 was absolutely not "one of the least extreme weather years in recent memory". Anyone who told you that is either a) unfamiliar with the meaning of the word "extreme", or b) lying.
Quoting 375. jonger1150:


You seem confused. Allow me to help:

Neapolitan image

(quote from jonger1150)

Virtually not change and remember, this is without as much UHI as today.

Number of inhabitants of Detroit worse than halved since 1960.
Also some good 'UHI'checking actually led some climate revisionists to accept the reality of CAGW, most notably Richard Fuller: Link
That also caused the decomposition of Curry :)
I offer the following quotes as cold showers to all Wunderfolk still enthralled by the AGW Mega-Hoax which yours truly saw concocted up-close-'n-personal inside the Global Hot House so revered by ignoramuses, fools, bought-'n-paid-for shills and, of course, axe-grinding fanatics. The quotes illustrate - to rational readers - just HOW cynical a fraud "Man-Made Global Warming" is:

"We need to get some broad based support, to capture the public's imagination... So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts... Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest." - Stephen Schneider, Stanford Professor of Climatology, lead author of many IPCC reports

"Unless we announce disasters no one will listen." - Sir John Houghton, first chairman of IPCC

"It doesn't matter what is true, it only matters what people believe is true." - Paul Watson, co-founder of Greenpeace

"We've got to ride this global warming issue. Even if the theory of global warming is wrong, we will be doing the right thing in terms of economic and environmental policy." - Timothy Wirth, President of the UN Foundation

"No matter if the science of global warming is all phony... climate change provides the greatest opportunity to bring about justice and equality in the world." - Christine Stewart, fmr Canadian Minister of the Environment

"The only way to get our society to truly change is to frighten people with the possibility of a catastrophe." - emeritus professor Daniel Botkin

"We require a central organizing principle - one agreed to voluntarily. Minor shifts in policy, moderate improvement in laws and regulations, rhetoric offered in lieu of genuine change - these are all forms of appeasement, designed to satisfy the public’s desire to believe that sacrifice, struggle and a wrenching transformation of society will not be necessary." - Al Gore, Earth in the Balance

"Isn't the only hope for the planet that the industrialized civilizations collapse? Isn't it our responsiblity to bring that about?" - Maurice Strong, founder of the UN Environment Programme

"A massive campaign must be launched to de-develop the United States. De-development means bringing our economic system into line with the realities of ecology and the world resource situation." - Paul Ehrlich, Professor of Population Studies

"The only hope for the world is to make sure there is not another United States. We can't let other countries have the same number of cars, the amount of industrialization, we have in the US. We have to stop these Third World countries right where they are." - Michael Oppenheimer, Environmental Defense Fund

"Global Sustainability requires the deliberate quest of poverty, reduced resource consumption and set levels of mortality control." - Professor Maurice King

"Current lifestyles and consumption patterns of the affluent middle class - involving high meat intake, use of fossil fuels, appliances, air-conditioning, and suburban housing - are not sustainable." - Maurice Strong, Rio Earth Summit

"Complex technology of any sort is an assault on human dignity. It would be little short of disastrous for us to discover a source of clean, cheap, abundant energy, because of what we might do with it." - Amory Lovins, Rocky Mountain Institute

"The prospect of cheap fusion energy is the worst thing that could happen to the planet." - Jeremy Rifkin, Greenhouse Crisis Foundation

"Giving society cheap, abundant energy would be the equivalent of giving an idiot child a machine gun." - Prof Paul Ehrlich, Stanford University

"The big threat to the planet is people: there are too many, doing too well economically and burning too much oil." – Sir James Lovelock, BBC Interview

"My three main goals would be to reduce human population to about 100 million worldwide, destroy the industrial infrastructure and see wilderness, with it’s full complement of species, returning throughout the world." -Dave Foreman, co-founder of Earth First!

"A total population of 250-300 million people, a 95% decline from present levels, would be ideal." - Ted Turner, founder of CNN and major UN donor

"... the resultant ideal sustainable population is hence more than 500 million but less than one billion." - Club of Rome, Goals for Mankind

"If I were reincarnated I would wish to be returned to earth as a killer virus to lower human population levels." - Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh, patron of the World Wildlife Fund

"I suspect that eradicating small pox was wrong. It played an important part in balancing ecosystems." - John Davis, editor of Earth First! Journal

"The extinction of the human species may not only be inevitable but a good thing." - Christopher Manes, Earth First!

"Childbearing should be a punishable crime against society, unless the parents hold a government license. All potential parents should be required to use contraceptive chemicals, the government issuing antidotes to citizens chosen for childbearing." - David Brower, first Executive Director of the Sierra Club
I offer the following quotes as cold showers to all Wunderfolk still enthralled by the AGW Mega-Hoax which yours truly saw concocted up-close-'n-personal inside the Global Hot House so revered by ignoramuses, fools, bought-'n-paid-for shills and, of course, axe-grinding fanatics. The quotes illustrate - to rational readers - just HOW cynical a fraud "Man-Made Global Warming" is:

"We need to get some broad based support, to capture the public's imagination... So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts... Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest." - Stephen Schneider, Stanford Professor of Climatology, lead author of many IPCC reports

"Unless we announce disasters no one will listen." - Sir John Houghton, first chairman of IPCC

"It doesn't matter what is true, it only matters what people believe is true." - Paul Watson, co-founder of Greenpeace

"We've got to ride this global warming issue. Even if the theory of global warming is wrong, we will be doing the right thing in terms of economic and environmental policy." - Timothy Wirth, President of the UN Foundation

"No matter if the science of global warming is all phony... climate change provides the greatest opportunity to bring about justice and equality in the world." - Christine Stewart, fmr Canadian Minister of the Environment

"The only way to get our society to truly change is to frighten people with the possibility of a catastrophe." - emeritus professor Daniel Botkin

"We require a central organizing principle - one agreed to voluntarily. Minor shifts in policy, moderate improvement in laws and regulations, rhetoric offered in lieu of genuine change - these are all forms of appeasement, designed to satisfy the public’s desire to believe that sacrifice, struggle and a wrenching transformation of society will not be necessary." - Al Gore, Earth in the Balance

"Isn't the only hope for the planet that the industrialized civilizations collapse? Isn't it our responsiblity to bring that about?" - Maurice Strong, founder of the UN Environment Programme

"A massive campaign must be launched to de-develop the United States. De-development means bringing our economic system into line with the realities of ecology and the world resource situation." - Paul Ehrlich, Professor of Population Studies

"The only hope for the world is to make sure there is not another United States. We can't let other countries have the same number of cars, the amount of industrialization, we have in the US. We have to stop these Third World countries right where they are." - Michael Oppenheimer, Environmental Defense Fund

"Global Sustainability requires the deliberate quest of poverty, reduced resource consumption and set levels of mortality control." - Professor Maurice King

"Current lifestyles and consumption patterns of the affluent middle class - involving high meat intake, use of fossil fuels, appliances, air-conditioning, and suburban housing - are not sustainable." - Maurice Strong, Rio Earth Summit

"Complex technology of any sort is an assault on human dignity. It would be little short of disastrous for us to discover a source of clean, cheap, abundant energy, because of what we might do with it." - Amory Lovins, Rocky Mountain Institute

"The prospect of cheap fusion energy is the worst thing that could happen to the planet." - Jeremy Rifkin, Greenhouse Crisis Foundation

"Giving society cheap, abundant energy would be the equivalent of giving an idiot child a machine gun." - Prof Paul Ehrlich, Stanford University

"The big threat to the planet is people: there are too many, doing too well economically and burning too much oil." – Sir James Lovelock, BBC Interview

"My three main goals would be to reduce human population to about 100 million worldwide, destroy the industrial infrastructure and see wilderness, with it’s full complement of species, returning throughout the world." -Dave Foreman, co-founder of Earth First!

"A total population of 250-300 million people, a 95% decline from present levels, would be ideal." - Ted Turner, founder of CNN and major UN donor

"... the resultant ideal sustainable population is hence more than 500 million but less than one billion." - Club of Rome, Goals for Mankind

"If I were reincarnated I would wish to be returned to earth as a killer virus to lower human population levels." - Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh, patron of the World Wildlife Fund

"I suspect that eradicating small pox was wrong. It played an important part in balancing ecosystems." - John Davis, editor of Earth First! Journal

"The extinction of the human species may not only be inevitable but a good thing." - Christopher Manes, Earth First!

"Childbearing should be a punishable crime against society, unless the parents hold a government license. All potential parents should be required to use contraceptive chemicals, the government issuing antidotes to citizens chosen for childbearing." - David Brower, first Executive Director of the Sierra Club