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Extreme Cold Wave Invades Eastern Half of U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:33 PM GMT on January 07, 2014

A remarkable Arctic cold blast--the most severe since 1996 or 1994 in much of the U.S.--is smashing daily low temperature records across the Midwest, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast today. The counter-clockwise flow of air around powerful Winter Storm Ion, a 961 mb low centered just east of Hudson Bay at 9 am EST, is pushing frigid air from northern Canada deep into the U.S., bringing freezing temperatures as far south as Central Florida. Strong winds of 15 - 25 mph are accompanying the cold blast, and have brought dangerously cold wind chills of -30°F or lower to at least nineteen states. The coldest winds chills on Tuesday morning were over Southern Michigan, Northeast Indiana, Northwest Ohio, and Southern Ontario. The temperature in Detroit bottomed out at -14° on Tuesday morning--their 16th coldest day in recorded history--and the wind chill hit a remarkable -41°. The high temperature in Detroit on Tuesday is expected to remain below zero; the city's list of days with a high temperature below zero is a short one, with only three such days in recorded history. The cold air has eased some in Chicago, which had a low temperature Tuesday morning of -11°. Chicago's high temperature hit -1° on Monday; the noontime temperature on Monday was a remarkable -14°F, the 7th coldest noontime temperature ever measured in the Windy City. From the 10 EST Tuesday NWS Storm Summary, here are the coldest wind chill readings observed so far in the cold wave:

Comertown, MT: -63
Rolla, ND: -60
Glenwood, MN: -56
Summit, SD: -56
Waupaca, WI: -56
Ironwood, MI: -54
Mount Mitchell, NC: -50
Dubuque, IA: -49
Moline, IL: -46
Toledo, OH: -45
Ingalls Field, VA: -45
Valparaiso, IN: -44
Canaan Heights, WV: -44
Brownlee, NE: -43
Clarion, PA: -42
Oakland, MD: -41
Jamestown, NY: -38
Garden City, KS: -33
St. Charles, MO: -31


Figure 1. A frigid morning in the Windy City: Chicago seen from the air on January 7, 2014, after the low temperature hit -11°F. Image credit: Hank Cain

Worst weather of the day: Buffalo, NY
My vote for worst weather of the day goes to Buffalo, New York, where heavy snow was falling at 9 am with a temperature of -6°F. West winds of 24 mph gusting to 33 mph created a dangerously cold wind chill of -32°, and a wind gust of 60 mph was recorded at 3:26 am. West-southwest winds blowing along the length of Lake Erie are creating an epic lake effect blizzard in the Buffalo region, which may see snow accumulations of up to three feet before the storm ends on Wednesday. An ice jam has also formed on the Niagara River, leading to issuance of a flash flood warning for low-lying areas along the river.


Figure 2. A cold day on Lake Ontario. Sea smoke is visible over the lake in this shot taken three miles west of Pultneyville, NY, on January 7, 2014. The outside air temp was 1°F. Image credit: wunderphotographer JACKMAY52.


Figure 3. A cold day in the Great Lakes: Arctic air flowing over the Great Lakes on January 6, 2014 creates bands of lake-effect snow snows over and in the lee of the lakes. Image credit: NASA.

Weather whiplash in New York City
New York City is enduring a classic case of weather whiplash due to this week's wild weather. Freezing rain on Sunday morning caused a Delta flight to skid off a runway at JFK airport. But on Monday morning, a surge of warm air riding northeastwards in advance of Winter Storm Ion boosted the temperature in the Big Apple to 55°. The cold front associated with Ion passed though the city Monday afternoon, allowing the low temperature on Tuesday morning to plummet to 4°, beating the record for the date of 6° set in 1896.

The culprit: cold air from Canada and the polar vortex
In the winter, the 24-hour darkness over the snow and ice-covered polar regions allows a huge dome of cold air to form. This cold air increases the difference in temperature between the pole and the Equator, and leads to an intensification of the strong upper-level winds of the jet stream. The strong jet stream winds act to isolate the polar regions from intrusions of warmer air, creating a "polar vortex" of frigid counter-clockwise swirling air over the Arctic. The chaotic flow of the air in the polar vortex sometimes allows a large dip (a sharp trough of low pressure) to form in the jet stream over North America, allowing the Arctic air that had been steadily cooling in the northern reaches of Canada in areas with 24-hour darkness to spill southwards deep into the United States. In theory, the 1.5°F increase in global surface temperatures that Earth has experienced since 1880 due to global warming should reduce the frequency of 1-in-20 year extreme cold weather events like the current one. However, it is possible that climate change could alter jet stream circulation patterns in a way that could increase the incidence of unusual jet stream "kinks" that allow cold air to spill southwards over the Eastern U.S., a topic I have blogged about extensively, and plan to say more about later this week.


Video 1. I appeared on Democracy Now this morning to discuss the cold wave, the polar vortex, and possible linkages between climate change and wild jet stream behavior.


Figure 4. From wunderground's Jet Stream page, we see the large dip in the jet stream over the U.S. responsible for this week's extreme Arctic air outbreak.

Siberians agree: North American winters are impressive!
The last time I experienced weather this cold was on January 18, 1994. I walked across the University of Michigan campus in Ann Arbor that evening in bitter cold temperatures of ten below zero, driving winds, and lake effect snow--which the road salt had absolutely no effect on. I made it to Hill Auditorium to hear a concert by the Siberian throat singers of Tuva. After performing one of their songs that was sung in their native language, the singers explained through a translator that the lyrics described the story of their epic voyage that day from Dayton, Ohio northwards on I-75 to Michigan in a blinding snow storm with visibilities near zero and intensely cold temperatures. Their vehicle spun out into the ditch, but they were able to push it out and make it to the concert on time. "Siberia is known for its brutal winters," the translator said, "but North American winters are just as impressive!" The next morning the temperature bottomed out at -20° in Detroit, the third coldest reading in city history.

Winter storm Christina (formerly Hercules) pounds the UK with huge waves
The winter storm (dubbed "Hercules") that hit the U.S. last week morphed into a massive 950 mb low pressure system to the east of the UK on Monday. The storm, called "Christina" by the Free University of Berlin, generated huge waves of up to 8 meters (27 feet) that battered the southwest coasts of the UK on Monday, causing damaging coastal flooding, according to the BBC. Huge waves from the storm also battered Portugal, injuring four and damaging about two dozen cars. The unusually contorted jet stream pattern associated with Christina pulled warm air to the north over Western Europe on Monday. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Amsterdam had its warmest January day on record Monday: 14°C (57°F), and the temperature hit a sizzling 26.2°C (79°F) in Murcia, Tocino Bridge Station, Spain--not bad for the core of winter!


Video 2. Impressive waves from Winter Storm Christina (formerly "Hercules") pound the UK on Monday, January 6, 2014.

Jeff Masters
Natures Crystal
Natures Crystal
Frosted Glass backed-up by the sun.
Through Wonderland
Through Wonderland
At a nose-biting 2 degrees near the top of the mountain, the trees no longer have wisping hairs of snow brushing past, but are fully frosted over in decorative white. T'was a perfect day for skiing, and perfect views to accompany.
City Sundog
City Sundog
I have never seen as many sundogs in a whole winter as the amount I've seen thus far this winter! Temp was -19 but the windchill was only about -37 as comparison to yesterday's -54 for us! Need a weather category for sundogs!

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank you Dr. Masters
Thank you very much Dr. Masters for this update and thanks to all the bloggers who have been posting about the cold problems in their areas.
We find the whole weather events unfolding in North America fascinating.
Thanks Doc. More arctic cold in the works.
thanks for the update doc Brrrr is the word of the day
I have a question, How far back does Wunderground weather data go? Is it searchable? The reason for asking when I was young I remember some 20 below days and at least to blizzards. I find historical extreme weather of interest in general.

Thank you
Great post this morning Dr. Jeff...
Tuva Throat Singers from Siberia... did not see that one coming!
Quoting 3. hydrus:
Thanks Doc. More arctic cold in the works.
still a little over 30 days to go till the dead of winter
Quoting 6. JNTenne:
Great post this morning Dr. Jeff...
Tuva Throat Singers from Siberia... did not see that one coming!
Tried out for that....Had a bad case of Laryngitis..Just my luck
Thanks Dr. Masters
The PA Turnpike is now operating under a Winter Weather Advisory. Motorists who become disabled on the Turnpike should immediately call *11 from a cellular phone, 800-932-0586, or activate one of the emergency call boxes on your side of the roadway for immediate assistance.

Extra safety patrols are being conducted.
Quoting 7. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
still a little over 30 days to go till the dead of winter
We are have some problems here, but getting through it. -5 Here on the plateau in Warren County with 10 mph wind. All kennel heaters running for 48 hours and was still 45 degrees. The Irish Wolfhounds can take a bit of chilly weather tho...:)
From yesterday: anomalously deep cold across much of the US, along with a few smaller areas of not-quite-so anomalous cool in Asia. Meanwhile, most the rest of the planet stays warm. Note the especially warm temperatures across much of Europe:

Neapolitan image

I look forward to reading what Dr. Masters has to say later in the week regarding the cold blast vis-a-vis climate change. In my opinion, while no one can credibly state that the current US cold blast was "caused" by global warming, it is the type of outbreak that's entirely consistent with the kind of extreme events we'll continue to see as the planet warms up and what were long considered "normal" atmospheric patterns are disturbed, disrupted, and rerouted.
Quoting 96. no1der:
Stranded Antarctic ships finally break the ice

"The captain of the Shokalskiy told Russian media that a fortunate shift in wind direction had helped open the thick ice floes that had trapped his ship for 14 days.
"Finally the wind changed to the west and as a result a crack appeared in the ice. We went into it and we are now slowly moving north," Igor Kiselyov told Russia's Itar-Tass news agency. "We are going at a slow speed and by changing course we have moved forward already more than 20 miles.""

Thank You Dr. I would be curious (don't have a clue) as to how this particular Winter, so far, stacks up in the grand scheme of things when viewed through an Enso Neutral lens in terms of US climatology. Have similar events of late occurred in past neutral years or more or less likely to occur during a full-swing phase.

As I have noted a few times recently, we can see certain climatological winter patterns emerge for certain regions of the US when we are in a La Nina or El Nino phase but neutral years seem to bring a pretty mixed bag of weather for Conus.
Quoting 13. Neapolitan:
From yesterday: anomalously deep cold across much of the US, along with a few smaller areas of not-quite-so anomalous cool in Asia. Meanwhile, most the rest of the planet stays warm. Note the especially warm temperatures across much of Europe:

Neapolitan image

I look forward to reading what Dr. Masters has to say later in the week regarding the cold blast vis-a-vis climate change. In my opinion, while no one can credibly state that the current US cold blast was "caused" by global warming, it is the type of outbreak that's entirely consistent with the kind of extreme events we'll continue to see as the planet warms up and what were long considered "normal" atmospheric patterns are disturbed, disrupted, and rerouted.
How do you know all those big words Nea... I always have trouble spelling Drivers License
Thanks Doc!
I commented a bit on the price of wholesale electricity in the US this morning, when the price per megawatt was about $270, which if you divide it by a 1000 give you the kilowatt price of 27 cents and that's wholesale.
About an hour ago I saw electricity was selling wholesale for over $1500 or $1.50 a kilowatt.
As far as I can determine this seems to be about 10 times what consumers are paying for electricity?
I have no way to determine if what I am saying is true but the info I am using comes from:-

http://powerisknowledge.com/

Maybe somebody knows of a graph of this price scale as it looks like a bankruptcy scenario to me.
Please forgive me if I have got something wrong on this as I am only an observer in the US electricity market.
The price at this moment in time according to the site is:- $576 a megawatt!
Quoting 10. Doppler22:


Gonna say something hard ,how stoopid people can be , standing on a pier when warnings about surge and spring tides are out ...

I would have little sympathy if one of those peeps got swept out ...

Is that gulf effect snow near Port St Joe, FL?

Eric
Lowest wind chill in Pennsylvania last night, -50 degrees near Ulysses.
Here is nice discussion, and the link, as to the typical effects of an Enso neutral phase for the SW Conus as opposed to some of the more beneficial effect for them from a La Nina or El Nino phase:

Of the three ENSO phases—La Niña, neutral, and El Niño—La Niña tips its hand the most in terms of what it will bring to the Southwest. It nearly always ushers in below-average rain and snow to the region, making forecasts more accurate.

“We pretty much know by November if it is going to be a dry winter in a La Niña year,” said Gregg Garfin, deputy director for science translation and outreach at the University of Arizona’s Institute of the Environment. “The percent we’re wrong is in the single digits.”

In ENSO-neutral years, however, foresight is harder to come by, in part because the variability is higher. Neutral years have delivered scant rainfall—most recently in 2002, when Arizona and New Mexico together received only about 46 percent of average precipitation—as well as a dousing. In 1995, for example, both states received about 142 percent of average precipitation combined.

“During ENSO-neutral years, we have a tendency to be just below the average in many regions in the Southwest,” said Michael Crimmins, an associate professor and extension specialist in the UA’s department of soil, water and environmental science. “It’s also more variable and we can get really wet years or really dry years.”

This also holds true for part of the Rocky Mountains, where most of the water in the region’s two most important rivers—the Colorado and Rio Grande—originates (Figure 1). About 55 and 73 percent of the ENSO-neutral winters, for example, have delivered below-average rain and snow in the Upper Colorado River and Rio Grande basins, respectively. In neutral years, however, the tug of ENSO isn’t as strong, and other forces come into play.


Link

Post 18--PlazaRed

I am not sure what you are seeking for sure. Seems the concern as to what sort of power rates we pay here in US per kilowat hour.

I live on the S coast of NC--our rates for home use run $.11.75 per kilowatt hour. Thus if I use 700 this month, my bill would be $82.25.

The state holds rates in check and power companies have to apply for rike hikes----and why they are needed---and usually they don't get what they want:)

I sure hope this helps--or is at least sorta what you are looking for---

I don't know about the rest of you, but I think if global warming causes it to be so cold, we should start some global cooling now so the U.S. can thaw.
Can we please stop calling winter storms by name?
Quoting 21. Doppler22:
Lowest temperature in Pennsylvania last night, -50 degrees near Ulysses.
You do mean lowest wind chill reading, correct? Harrisburg reached 0F, while Williamsport reached -5F. Cold, to be sure, but -50 is not likely at all. In fact, the lowest wind chill reading I can find for Pennsylvania at all for the entire event is -42 at Clarion (the lowest wind chill reading in the nation for this event looks to be the -63 calculated at at Comertown, MT).
Thank you:-
23. Tigerosee
My point that I alone seem to be wondering about is that the normal price I have been used to seeing for wholesale electricity prices is about $40 a megawatt hour.
This if you divide it by 1000 gives you 4 cents a kilowatt hour.
So the price you pay is about 3 times what the power company pays the electricity generator for the "Raw," electricity.
Now my point is this.
If the wholesale price of electricity is say $500 a megawatt then the unit price of a kilowatt hour is 50 Cents.
This is about 4 times what you are paying for it, then you have to take their costs out of it all as well.
To put my argument/assumption into simple terms. Its like the gas station has to pay $12 a gallon for gas and sells it to you for $3.
The power company's must be making a huge loss out of supplying electricity at a fixed price to the consumers, when they are paying such massive prices to buy the electricity which they distribute.
I am also noting that the electricity generators are making a huge killing here.
Maybe I have missed something here of misunderstood what I am reading on:-

http://powerisknowledge.com/
Quoting 24. oracle28:
I don't know about the rest of you, but I think if global warming causes it to be so cold, we should start some global cooling now so the U.S. can thaw.

Just cool the Arctic. That will right f-upped general circulation patterns for a while and maybe set them amove again - what with average lifetime of such patterns having almost doubled this century.
Can we please stop calling winter storms by name?


many of us enjoy the names
Quoting ricderr:
Can we please stop calling winter storms by name?


many of us enjoy the names


Can we please stop calling me names then?

J/k
A US-centric look at today's Northern Hemisphere temperature anomalies:

Neapolitan image
Can we please stop calling me names then?



of course not
Good Day People, Still morning here, and 58.1F, low was 49.9F.
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters....
Quoting 30. Thunderfan:


Can we please stop calling me names then?

J/k
Hang in there Thunder....It will only get worse
Quoting 13. Neapolitan:
From yesterday: anomalously deep cold across much of the US, along with a few smaller areas of not-quite-so anomalous cool in Asia. Meanwhile, most the rest of the planet stays warm. Note the especially warm temperatures across much of Europe:

Neapolitan image

I look forward to reading what Dr. Masters has to say later in the week regarding the cold blast vis-a-vis climate change. In my opinion, while no one can credibly state that the current US cold blast was "caused" by global warming, it is the type of outbreak that's entirely consistent with the kind of extreme events we'll continue to see as the planet warms up and what were long considered "normal" atmospheric patterns are disturbed, disrupted, and rerouted.
Nea, this is a very interesting picture. The northern hemisphere has a very amplified two-peak (Pacific, Europe), two-trough (N.America, C.Asia) anomaly while the southern hemisphere has a less amplified 5-peak, 5-trough anomaly. I too look forward to Dr. Master's post that speaks to these events.
Quoting 13. Neapolitan:
From yesterday: anomalously deep cold across much of the US, along with a few smaller areas of not-quite-so anomalous cool in Asia. Meanwhile, most the rest of the planet stays warm. Note the especially warm temperatures across much of Europe:

Neapolitan image

I look forward to reading what Dr. Masters has to say later in the week regarding the cold blast vis-a-vis climate change. In my opinion, while no one can credibly state that the current US cold blast was "caused" by global warming, it is the type of outbreak that's entirely consistent with the kind of extreme events we'll continue to see as the planet warms up and what were long considered "normal" atmospheric patterns are disturbed, disrupted, and rerouted.



Maybe.. then again we were overdue for the factors to come together for that kind of cold.

Neapolitan how does your image appear in quotes...
Rain coming

Quoting 37. GeorgiaStormz:
Neapolitan how does your image appear in quotes...


Must have some code programmed ... The bandwidth wastage will not go down well with some folks!
Yuck




Another winter low with no snow.
Quoting 39. VR46L:


Must have some code programmed ... The bandwidth wastage will not go down well with some folks!


I'm not sure about all that... I think it could be useful.
Just have to make sure it's not copied over and over and over.
Hard Freeze Warning

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
905 AM EST TUE JAN 7 2014

...FREEZE AND HARD FREEZE WARNINGS WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH
COLD DRY AIR SPREADING INTO FLORIDA.

FLZ139-142-239-242-248-081200-
/O.EXP.KTBW.HZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140107T1400Z/
/O.CON.KTBW.HZ.W.0002.140108T0200Z-140108T1200Z/
COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL CITRUS-INLAND LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-
INLAND HERNANDO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDAR KEY...YANKEETOWN...
CRYSTAL RIVER...HOMOSASSA...CHIEFLAND...BRONSON...WILLISTO N...
INVERNESS...BROOKSVILLE...SPRING HILL
905 AM EST TUE JAN 7 2014

...HARD FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
...HARD FREEZE WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

* TEMPERATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 22 TO 27 DEGREES FOR
A FEW HOURS TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE TO COLD SENSITIVE PLANTS. PLAN TO
COVER OR BRING THESE PLANTS INDOORS AND BRING PETS INSIDE AS
WELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HARD FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND
OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$
Quoting 31. Neapolitan:
A US-centric look at today's Northern Hemisphere temperature anomalies:

Neapolitan image
Quoting 39. VR46L:


Must have some code programmed ... The bandwidth wastage will not go down well with some folks!
There's no "bandwidth wastage"; once a particular image--any particular image--is downloaded to your browser's cache, it's there until it expires. All subsequent appearances pull from the cache; it needn't be downloaded again. (About the only way this isn't true is if someone has set their browser to not cache images or other content; if that's the case, they're already downloading every image on every page with each reload/refresh, so that's on them.)
Quoting 26. Neapolitan:
You do mean lowest wind chill reading, correct? Harrisburg reached 0F, while Williamsport reached -5F. Cold, to be sure, but -50 is not likely at all. In fact, the lowest wind chill reading I can find for Pennsylvania at all for the entire event is -42 at Clarion (the lowest wind chill reading in the nation for this event looks to be the -63 calculated at at Comertown, MT).

Yes the lowest wind chill. I saw it on a map posted by the NWS in State College.

Quoting 41. GeorgiaStormz:


I'm not sure about all that... I think it could be useful.
Just have to make sure it's not copied over and over and over.


I don't know some people give out over in Dr Roods blog about Bandwidth waste ... I could care less ,40 G in 28 days usually hav 10 G left over
Quoting 44. Neapolitan:
There's no "bandwidth wastage"; once a particular image--any particular image--is downloaded to your browser's cache, it's there until it expires. All subsequent appearances pull from the cache; it needn't be downloaded again. (About the only way this isn't true is if someone has set their browser to not cache images or other content; if that's the case, they're already downloading every image on every page with each reload/refresh, so that's on them.)


Trying to figure how it works.... All I've been able to do is shade posts..
Quoting 44. Neapolitan:
There's no "bandwidth wastage"; once a particular image--any particular image--is downloaded to your browser's cache, it's there until it expires. All subsequent appearances pull from the cache; it needn't be downloaded again. (About the only way this isn't true is if someone has set their browser to not cache images or other content; if that's the case, they're already downloading every image on every page with each reload/refresh, so that's on them.)


Thanks for replying ... I thought you were ignoring me !
Thanks Jeff...
Looking at that chart which Nea put up at post 31 without using "bandwidth" to cite it.
31. Neapolitan
The central North American continent seems to be holding an island of extreme cold.
While almost all the areas surrounding the cold "blob," appear to be showing a warmer than normal anomaly.
We are very concerned that you people over there don't get any power cuts in this kind of cold as its very dangerous.
Keep alternative heating and warm clothes and blankets around at all times.
From USA TODAY

Solar Flare M8.7 and rising... Link
Hundreds of Manatee's are flocking to the tampa warm springs refuge in tampa natl park.....
Quoting 52. Luisport:
Solar Flare M8.7 and rising... Link
X1.0!!!
Quoting 13. Neapolitan:
From yesterday: anomalously deep cold across much of the US, along with a few smaller areas of not-quite-so anomalous cool in Asia. Meanwhile, most the rest of the planet stays warm. Note the especially warm temperatures across much of Europe:

Neapolitan image

I look forward to reading what Dr. Masters has to say later in the week regarding the cold blast vis-a-vis climate change. In my opinion, while no one can credibly state that the current US cold blast was "caused" by global warming, it is the type of outbreak that's entirely consistent with the kind of extreme events we'll continue to see as the planet warms up and what were long considered "normal" atmospheric patterns are disturbed, disrupted, and rerouted.


I don't what you have to look forward to...Dr Master's will spin this some how this is all consistent with global warming theory. There is no suspense...he'll do it. I'm not going to open myself to additional abuse by trying to predict WHAT Dr. Masters will say, I just know he'll spin it. Looking forward to this is kind of like looking forward to sunrise tomorrow...I know it will happen I just don't know if it will be cloudy or partly cloudy or clear out.

While I do like Dr Master's observations, as unlike 90% of the people on this blog, I do like to read opposing views.

What I like even more is how most bloggers on this site impugn anybody who disagrees with conventional AGW theory...whether by just name calling or treating that poster's comments as nonsense.

There is no point on this blog of posting any links or opinion contrary to AGW regardless of how educated or eminent that person is. Doing this simply turns up the froth and the negative comments. Any scientist who disagrees with AGW is a quack/loon/insane and doesn't know what they are talking about. That seems to be the way our society has gone today....to belittle and impugn those we disagree with.

And the moderator(s) of this group are more than happy to let it happen.
If GFS were to be believed, "polar vortex" is going to visit the area again pretty soon.

Quoting 54. Luisport:
X1.0!!!
X1.1!!!
As others have noted, this could be something: the sun is near the peak of a long-duration X-Class (c.1.2) flare almost smack in the middle of the disc, and therefore likely earth-directed (and capable of a CME):

sun

sun

Like a big ol' flashlight, no?
Quoting 57. Bluestorm5:
If GFS were to be believed, "polar vortex" is going to visit the area again pretty soon.


XD Brief warm up and then
Old man winter: "HA I was just kidding!! Here you go again!!"
CRYSTAL RIVER, Florida (AP) - Hundreds of heat-seeking manatees are packing the warm water springs at a Tampa Bay-area national wildlife refuge.

That's prompted officials to close those waters to humans to safeguard the protected marine mammals.

Roughly 300 manatees have packed into the canal leading to the Three Sisters Springs at the Crystal River National Wildlife Refuge. On Tuesday, officials instituted an emergency closure of the springs to activities such as swimming and kayaking so that the manatees would not be disturbed.

The closure may continue through Wednesday afternoon or longer. Visitor services specialist Ivan Vicente tells the Tampa Bay Times that the closure will continue to keep the manatees "undisturbed for as long as possible during this cold spell."

Manatees seek out warm waters when temperatures drop.
Quoting 58. Luisport:
X1.1!!!
X1.2!!!
Quoting 60. Doppler22:

XD Brief warm up and then
Old man winter: "HA I was just kidding!! Here you go again!!"


And I'm going to get caught by this in the coldest area of NC in Asheville... uh-oh.

Good evening folks.

Surfers flock to ride the 'black swell' in Ireland
BBC Video, 6 hours ago
The series of low pressure systems in the Atlantic that have caused storms in the UK, have led to big waves off the coast of Ireland.
Mullaghmore Head, in Sligo in the north-west of Ireland is reckoned to be the best spot in Europe at the moment for professional surfers.
They headed into the teeth of the storm on Tuesday to ride the giant "black swell".
David Eades reports.


Too cold for polar bears
BBC video, 7 January 2014 Last updated at 16:32
This is Anana. You would have thought that she would be in her element. But her zookeepers in Chicago say it's so cold there the polar bears and penguins are being kept indoors.
Quoting Luisport:
X1.2!!!


What's it all mean?
Quoting 63. Bluestorm5:


And I'm going to get caught by this in the coldest area of NC in Asheville... uh-oh.


Well... we shall see if it happens.
Quoting 62. Luisport:
X1.2!!!


Mmm, that's quite strong (fortunately receding now)! And moreover fully earth directed:


(Saved image). Source.

HUGE SUNSPOT AR1944 TARGETS EARTH: One of the biggest sunspots in years is crossing the center of the solar disk, putting Earth in the way of potential eruptions.

---------------

Wikipedia about sun flares.
Quoting 59. Neapolitan:
As others have noted, this could be something: the sun is near the peak of an X-Class (c.1.2) flare almost smack in the middle of the disc, and therefore likely earth-directed:

sun

sun

Like a big ol' flashlight, no?


That's bad for Earth this time, right?
Quoting 62. Luisport:
X1.2!!!
Just top on X1.2
Quoting 69. Bluestorm5:


That's bad for Earth this time, right?
Remains to be seen, but it's the best candidate for earthbound shenanigans the sun has put out in a while...
Quoting 70. Luisport:
Just top on X1.2
Link
Quoting 71. Neapolitan:
Remains to be seen, but it's the best candidate for earthbound havoc the sun has put out in a while...


So if this hit Earth, it could get very bad for our technologies right?
Quoting 12. hydrus:
We are have some problems here, but getting through it. -5 Here on the plateau in Warren County with 10 mph wind. All kennel heaters running for 48 hours and was still 45 degrees. The Irish Wolfhounds can take a bit of chilly weather tho...:)


I had to go adjust the heat in the rabbit barn this morning- they can take some cold, but the water lines were freezing up.

A friend who drives a bread truck told me the temp in Keyser, WV was -17 on the bank thermometer at 3:30 am this morning, but I got up at 5 it was -12 just a few miles away were I live. The record low for January in Keyser is -25, but for this date it is -2 so I feel pretty certain that record was broken. Right now it is a balmy 5 degrees, with a wind chill of -10 up here on the mountain were I work. Cold, but not as cold as some places :)


Surfer Shane Dorian flies from Hawaii to catch 20-metre monster French wave
Big-wave specialist makes 20,000-mile round trip from Pacific island for chance to surf Belharra break during winter storms
The Guardian, Jan 7, 2014

One of the best big-wave surfers in the world has made a 20,000-mile round trip from Hawaii to ride the massive waves that recent storms have brought to the shores of Europe.

Shane Dorian caught just two of the 20-metre waves off the French coast, but that was enough to justify the trip for his sponsors, seeking exposure for the increasingly high-profile sport of big-wave riding. ...


Well, I wouldn't even go near those waves for a million dollars or euros, brrr!
Quoting 73. Bluestorm5:


So if this hit Earth, it could get very bad for our technologies right?
Again, it could, but we won't know until the flare has been thoroughly analysed over the next few hours. Keep your fingers crossed; any possible flare-induced outage across, say, the Northeast US would obviously be extremely unwelcome right now...

(Keep in mind that the 1989 flare that knocked Quebec's power grid offline was an X15, which is substantially larger than this one.)
How do you photograph cold? 14 pictures documenting the polar vortex
The Guardian, Jan 7, 2014 (photo gallery)

Sure, this is more a challenge than taking dramatic photos or videos of big waves (at least as long as those waves won't take you out to sea, hmmm).
Saw this on twitter

img src="">
Sure "Christina" is something for the books (thanks for mentioning it, doc). VR was right to be kind of afraid of this storm many days before it hit.



Portland homes evacuated as sirens sound for first time
BBC, 7 January 2014 Last updated at 18:29 GMT

Residents in Portland remain on standby after flood sirens sounded for the first time in 30 years on Monday night.

The area around Chiswell was abandoned by many as the warning signal sounded at about 22:30 GMT.
...

A rock stack off the coast, known locally as Pom Pom rock, has been washed away, according to locals.

Local historian Stuart Morris, who photographed the rock before and after its collapse, said: "You are talking about a natural stack that was hundreds of tonnes, totally demolished and broken to pieces by the storm.
...


I think it's here.
Quoting 76. Neapolitan:
Again, it could, but we won't know until the flare has been thoroughly analysed over the next few hours. Keep your fingers crossed; any possible flare-induced outage across, say, the Northeast US would obviously be extremely unwelcome right now...

(Keep in mind that the 1989 flare that knocked Quebec's power grid offline was an X15, which is substantially larger than this one.)


Yeah, I was wondering how big the solar flare got to be to be damaging. Thanks.
X1.2 flare directed right at Earth, nasty. If it wasn't for our magnetosphere we'd be sterilized. I doubt though that it'll cause a blackout, unless it's rated higher.

Imagine a Z-flare hitting the Earth however.
Toronto Pearson Int'L. Ont., Canada (Airport)
Updated: 1:00 PM EST on January 07, 2014
Scattered Clouds
-1 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 45%
Dew Point: -12 °F
Wind: 28 mph from the WSW
Wind Gust: -
Pressure: 30.06 in (Falling)
Visibility: 15.0 miles
Elevation: 568 ft

When you gonna warm up again?
Quoting 71. Neapolitan:
Remains to be seen, but it's the best candidate for earthbound shenanigans the sun has put out in a while...
I wanted to see the northern lights during the cold lets see if it delivers
Quoting 85. PedleyCA:
Toronto Pearson Int'L. Ont., Canada (Airport)
Updated: 1:00 PM EST on January 07, 2014
Scattered Clouds
-1 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 45%
Dew Point: -12 °F
Wind: 28 mph from the WSW
Wind Gust: -
Pressure: 30.06 in (Falling)
Visibility: 15.0 miles
Elevation: 568 ft

When you gonna warm up again?
saturday forecast highs of 41f

have to wait till it gets dark maybe I will get complaints of strange lights in the sky

to go along we strange noises
Link


What is this on radar these streaks or bands of snow near Panama City? I've been seeing these echos all morning and now early afternoon?

Eric
Quoting 84. CybrTeddy:
X1.2 flare directed right at Earth, nasty. If it wasn't for our magnetosphere we'd be sterilized. I doubt though that it'll cause a blackout, unless it's rated higher.

Imagine a Z-flare hitting the Earth however.


Is there a list of events above X class somewhere?

EDIT: Nvm. Found it.
management called iam not allowed to tell peeps its the Leprechauns making the noise under there beds anymore
Quoting 71. Neapolitan:
Remains to be seen, but it's the best candidate for earthbound shenanigans the sun has put out in a while...


At least it's not X20 or anything.
Quoting 90. Bluestorm5:


Is there a list of events above X class somewhere?

EDIT: Nvm. Found it.


Want to share that link?
Quoting 91. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
management called iam not allowed to tell peeps its the Leprechauns making the noise under there beds anymore


I thought it was monsters under our beds and we were supposed to be in love with tehm
Quoting 94. GeorgiaStormz:


I thought it was monsters under our beds and we were supposed to be in love with tehm


I only said it to one guy after calling me about noise

so I said don't worry about it its just the Leprechaun's hiding under your bed

I knew I was it for it when he's replied was

what we have Leprechaun's hiding under our bed
17 calls about nosies overnight

all because of the cold

I got 140 units here so 17 calls is not bad not good either but its the job
Quoting 93. PedleyCA:


Want to share that link?


http://www.spaceweather.com/solarflares/topflares .html
Quoting 101. Bluestorm5:


http://www.spaceweather.com/solarflares/topflares .html


Thanks Blue....
NY declares state of emergency due to 'Polar vortex' winter storm

Well, in Germany (as in other countries) every year the "word of the year" (Wort des Jahres) is chosen by a society of language. "Polar vortex" might be a good choice for 2014 (if memory will preserve it for 12 months, lol). (BTW Germany's word of the year 2013 has been the shortening GroKo for "Grosse Koalition" = grand coalition).
Quoting 96. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
17 calls about nosies overnight

all because of the cold



Were they running?
105. flsky
Quoting 77. barbamz:
How do you photograph cold? 14 pictures documenting the polar vortex
The Guardian, Jan 7, 2014 (photo gallery)

Sure, this is more a challenge than taking dramatic photos or videos of big waves (at least as long as those waves won't take you out to sea, hmmm).

It's just so hard to understand why people don't wear hats in these conditions. Guess they just don't understand anatomy.
Quoting 104. Grothar:


Were they running?
who running
Quoting 105. flsky:

It's just so hard to understand why people don't wear hats in these conditions. Guess they just don't understand anatomy.
you be surprize at what they don't understand it truly is frightening
Quoting 72. Luisport:
Link
Link
Quoting 103. barbamz:
NY declares state of emergency due to 'Polar vortex' winter storm

Well, in Germany (as in other countries) every year the "word of the year" (Wort des Jahres) is chosen by a society of language. "Polar vortex" might be a good choice for 2014 (if memory will preserve it for 12 months, lol). (BTW Germany's word of the year 2013 has been the shortening GroKo for "Grosse Koalition" = grand coalition).


I knew they wouldn't forget about me. :)
Winterstorm "Ion" in the US and tropical cyclone "Ian" in the South Pacific around at the same time, is quite exhilarating (and a bit confusing). Would be even better if comet ISON was still with us now (poor guy ;-).

At least "Ian" looks a bit confused with its track. Hope it doesn't do too much damage meandering near those islands.



Quoting 111. Grothar:


I knew they wouldn't forget about me. :)


Sure, GroTho, lol.
114. ARiot
Quoting 105. flsky:

It's just so hard to understand why people don't wear hats in these conditions. Guess they just don't understand anatomy.


Yes, hats are good, but unless you are a child, you don't lose any more body heat from your scalp than you do from other exposed areas. Even less heat is lost if you have hair, or thick hair.

http://www.yalemedicalgroup.org/stw/Page.asp?Page ID=STW001875

I shave my head so I wear a hat in the cold, unless I'm working. Then I take it off for a little natural AC.
Speaking of weather whiplash, impressive warm-up for the Front Range of Colorado last night.


Source: NCAR Foothills Lab, Boulder, Colorado

~30 degrees (F) in ~30 minutes.
Quoting 109. Luisport:
Link
UPDATE 19:30 UTC:
A bright and fast CME can be seen leaving the blast site. Our first measurements indicate the CME left the Sun at a speed around 2.000 km/s, which is fast for a CME. Link
Quoting 116. Luisport:
UPDATE 19:30 UTC:
A bright and fast CME can be seen leaving the blast site. Our first measurements indicate the CME left the Sun at a speed around 2.000 km/s, which is fast for a CME. Link
Our first measurements indacte this CME is extremly (around 2.000 km/s) fast. This means the CME could arrive in less than 36 hours.
The CME will arrive at Earth in about 36 hours or so.
Quoting 118. CybrTeddy:
The CME will arrive at Earth in about 36 hours or so.
Yes, huge and brutal!
Quoting 118. CybrTeddy:
The CME will arrive at Earth in about 36 hours or so.


Hi Teddy. Based on what is known at this time what implications this will have on communications and the ISS?
hey...in case anyone missed it...the cme will arrive in about 36 hours
That's a fairly impressive CME.
proton flux start to rise ...


From the Solar Terrestrial Activity report

Minor update added at 19:10 UTC: A relatively weak solar wind shock was observed arriving at ACE near 14:20 UTC. Although Bz has been southwards, the total field of the IMF has been unimpressive. Two major flares have been observed so far today. AR 11944 produced an M7.2/2B flare at 10:13 UTC. Only a minor CME was observed after this event. Then, beginning just after 18h and peaking at 18:32 UTC, AR 11943 and 11944 both contributed to an X1.2 long duration event. The event apparently began in AR 11943 and quickly spread to AR 11944. A fast CME was observed in STEREO-A at the time. This CME could reach Earth on January 9 and cause active to major storm conditions, possibly with severe storm intervals.

Quoting 121. ricderr:
hey...in case anyone missed it...the cme will arrive in about 36 hours
I will be sitting up on the roof waiting
Quoting 119. Luisport:
Yes, huge and brutal!


Why Thankyou.
128. etxwx
Ready.gov has a info section on Space Weather
2979Km/s!!! Link
I will be sitting up on the roof waiting


wear your foil hat
Sweet relief is coming to the Midwest this weekend. Temperatures are expected to reach the 30s by Friday and Saturday in Minneapolis and Milwaukee and will flirt with 40 on Sunday. Chicago will be even milder. I'm told that temperatures in the upper 30s feel exhilarating after you've endured several days with single digit/subzero temperatures.
132. VR46L
Ice, Ice Baby



Tweet from Earth Pics
Brrrrrrr!!!!!!!!

It got down to 17 in my area of Charleston last night. We're not going to get above freezing today. I am at work in a heated factory and I STILL cannot get warm!

Doesn't help that there is no hot water in the restrooms either. Ugh.
Good afternoon everyone. It is currently 68 degrees with light rain here, a rain that's been falling pretty much all day. I think we hit 64 around 11 a.m., but it's warmed slightly since then. I wore a sweater AND a jacket today... okay, the jacket was mostly for the rain, but still... lol

I'm hoping we get one more day of sub- 70 temps tomorrow, but if the skies clear during the day, we may not see that.
135. etxwx
Quoting 130. ricderr:
I will be sitting up on the roof waiting


wear your foil hat


Capt. Jack Underfoot is ready... :)
Doesn't help that there is no hot water in the restrooms either. Ugh



just wash hand and face and go outside and let the air dry it
Capt. Jack Underfoot is ready... :)




smart doggie
Quoting 129. Luisport:
2979Km/s!!! Link
17H!!!
Quoting 136. ricderr:
Doesn't help that there is no hot water in the restrooms either. Ugh



just wash hand and face and go outside and let the air dry it


LOL! It is brutal today. I'm hearing 56,000 without power, MANY pipes bursting, etc.... All this over a temp of 17 degrees. Good god. I can't imagine what Chicago/Detroit temps of -15 would do to the grid and infrastructure in Charleston. We'd be fubared. Lol.
They did not close...... Nature is about to strike back hard!
LOL! It is brutal today. I'm hearing 56,000 without power, MANY pipes bursting, etc.... All this over a temp of 17 degrees. Good god. I can't imagine what Chicago/Detroit temps of -15 would do to the grid and infrastructure in Charleston. We'd be fubared. Lol.



oh yes indeed...i enjoy hearing the floridians whine about their weather....not even freezing and they are dying
Quoting 131. wxgeek723:
Sweet relief is coming to the Midwest this weekend. Temperatures are expected to reach the 30s by Friday and Saturday in Minneapolis and Milwaukee and will flirt with 40 on Sunday. Chicago will be even milder. I'm told that temperatures in the upper 30s feel exhilarating after you've endured several days with single digit/subzero temperatures.
41f saturday everything will be running in water
Quoting 129. Luisport:
2979Km/s!!! Link


SW of Hawaii???
I did find it rather silly, however, having my kid delayed for 3hrs today for school. When I was a kid, I was living in the Detroit Metro area (Novi to be exact.) I had to stand outside in the dark, in 8 inches of blowing snow, with temps hovering around 0. We still had to go to school. We couldn't feel our fingers or toes, but no one died. We dealt with it. Not here....

Oh well. I guess times and toughness change.
Quoting 144. nash36:
I did find it rather silly, however, having my kid delayed for 3hrs today for school. When I was a kid, I was living in the Detroit Metro area (Novi to be exact.) I had to stand outside in the dark, in 8 inches of blowing snow, with temps hovering around 0. We still had to go to school. We couldn't feel our fingers or toes, but no one died. We dealt with it. Not here....

Oh well. I guess times and toughness change.


Hey Nash..we are on another two hour delay here as well for tomorrow..Brad Panovich made some good points yesterday in why the delay for schools..I posted it yesterday but thought I would repost for those who hadn't seen it..makes sense in what he says..

Brad Panovich WCNC
Just a quick note about the cold, school delays, closures and other aspects of cold in the Carolinas. Many transplants from up North and even locals kinda scoff and laugh at this but a few things to remember. #1 Don't assume every student has the proper attire for 7°. There's a reason we do Coats for Kids drives. Let alone hats, gloves or scarfs. #2 Don't assume everyone has proper heating sources. I know many people that only use space heaters in their homes around Charlotte. #3 Our building codes aren't the same as up north. Insulation and depth of water lines are much different here than let's say Minnesota. #4 School buses here don't have Block Heaters they do up north. Some school delays are more for the buses than the kids. #5 This is a rare event, once every 10-20 years so better safe than sorry.
Good evening everyone!
Very tough day at school here , 2 exams in 1 day:(
At least the weather is abit nicer :)

UK rain radar
Oh well. I guess times and toughness change.


17 here this morning.....no delays for anything....it's all a matter of what you are use to dealing with
time for some weather headlines.....

All 50 states had somewhere that was below freezing Tuesday morning, including Florida, the Gulf Coast and Hawaii - @NWSWPC
Quoting 134. BahaHurican:
Good afternoon everyone. It is currently 68 degrees with light rain here, a rain that's been falling pretty much all day. I think we hit 64 around 11 a.m., but it's warmed slightly since then. I wore a sweater AND a jacket today... okay, the jacket was mostly for the rain, but still... lol

I'm hoping we get one more day of sub- 70 temps tomorrow, but if the skies clear during the day, we may not see that.
you are on the quick end of the rebound pretty much as soon as the sun comes out
Quoting 145. ncstorm:


Hey Nash..we are on another two hour delay here as well for tomorrow..Brad Panovich made some good points yesterday in why the delay for schools..I posted it yesterday but thought I would repost for those who hadn't seen it..makes sense in what he says..

Brad Panovich WCNC
Just a quick note about the cold, school delays, closures and other aspects of cold in the Carolinas. Many transplants from up North and even locals kinda scoff and laugh at this but a few things to remember. #1 Don't assume every student has the proper attire for 7°. There's a reason we do Coats for Kids drives. Let alone hats, gloves or scarfs. #2 Don't assume everyone has proper heating sources. I know many people that only use space heaters in their homes around Charlotte. #3 Our building codes aren't the same as up north. Insulation and depth of water lines are much different here than let's say Minnesota. #4 School buses here don't have Block Heaters they do up north. Some school delays are more for the buses than the kids. #5 This is a rare event, once every 10-20 years so better safe than sorry.


Thanks for that NC. Puts it into a bit better perspective. My kid rides his bike, as we live literally across the street from the middle school, but I certainly understand the reasons. Good points made.
Jan 7, 2014 marks 1st time a record low was 'broken' at New York City's Central Park since March 9, 1996 - @NWSNewYorkNY
At 1 pm CT, Chicago hit 0 degrees and Minneapolis 2 degrees, ending subzero streaks of 37 hours and 62 hours, respectively
Authorities say 2 of the 3 duck hunters who fell into the frigid waters of Westport River in Massachusetts after their vessel capsized have died - @AP
Maryland, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and West Virginia all reach wind chills below -40 degrees - @NWSWPC via @EricHolthaus
Cars at a standstill in Buffalo, New York, with heavy blowing snow, zero visibility and 4 degree temperature - @wxdude
Atlanta sees record low of 6 degrees - @AP
Check out this spread for Jan. 5.

124 degree spread from lowest to highest temp in the lower 48

High Temperature for Sunday, January 5, 2014
(As received by 18 UTC January 6)
84 at Hollywood, FL
84 at Punta Gorda, FL

Low Temperature for Sunday, January 5, 2014
(As received by 06 UTC January 6)
-40 at Embarrass, MN
-40 at Babbitt, MN
New Jersey utility PSE&G asks customers to conserve electricity due to frigid weather conditions, especially from 3 to 7 p.m. ET Tuesday evening - via @NBCNews
At least 6 deaths reported in Illinois after snow, cold - @nbcchicago
47 here now,feels colder with the breeze..it will be over tomorrow..then warm up begins..
Thurs and Fri event, interesting...
funny thing, my daughter had to go to denver today on business, she says its warmer in denver than it is in maryland..wow
Fri event, interesting...



shows rain for el paso......we'll take it
funny thing, my daughter had to go to denver today on business, she says its warmer in denver than it is in maryland..wow



friend of mine south of jacksonville said todays high was 39.....we beat that here....gotta love cold fronts
Wind Chill Warning

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1211 PM EST TUE JAN 7 2014

MDZ501-VAZ503-504-WVZ501-503-505-506-080115-
/O.CON.KLWX.WC.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140108T1100Z/
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-WESTERN HIGHLAND-EASTERN HIGHLAND-
WESTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FROSTBURG...HIGHTOWN...MONTEREY...
BAYARD...MOUNT STORM...ELK GARDEN...CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN
1211 PM EST TUE JAN 7 2014

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WIND CHILL...20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...AS LOW AS 35 BELOW ABOVE 2000
FT.

* TIMING...THROUGH TONIGHT.

* TEMPERATURES...RISING TO AROUND ZERO THIS AFTERNOON. ZERO TO 10
BELOW ZERO TONIGHT.

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...
DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS COULD LEAD TO FROSTBITE
AND HYPOTHERMIA THROUGH TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL WARNING MEANS THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR AND
STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA OR DEATH IF
PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

$$
Quoting 144. nash36:
I did find it rather silly, however, having my kid delayed for 3hrs today for school. When I was a kid, I was living in the Detroit Metro area (Novi to be exact.) I had to stand outside in the dark, in 8 inches of blowing snow, with temps hovering around 0. We still had to go to school. We couldn't feel our fingers or toes, but no one died. We dealt with it. Not here....

Oh well. I guess times and toughness change.



The "wussification" of America marches on.
Quoting 147. ricderr:
Oh well. I guess times and toughness change.


17 here this morning.....no delays for anything....it's all a matter of what you are use to dealing with


its been a while since temps such as these

been warmer as of late the last few winters or so

Quoting 116. Luisport:
UPDATE 19:30 UTC:
A bright and fast CME can be seen leaving the blast site. Our first measurements indicate the CME left the Sun at a speed around 2.000 km/s, which is fast for a CME. Link
WOW!!! Link
Quoting 169. Luisport:
WOW!!! Link
faster and faster
Thursday at 1pm - back to above normal temps for most of Fl. I really did not like going to work with it raining and 41 degrees this morning (that I could not live with for very long).
Quoting 167. PensacolaDoug:



The "wussification" of America marches on.

Especially anecdotally.
Quoting 169. Luisport:
WOW!!! Link
Space Weather Message Code: ALTPC0
Serial Number: 41
Issue Time: 2014 Jan 07 2041 UTC

ALERT: Proton Event 100MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1pfu
Begin Time: 2014 Jan 07 2015 UTC
Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact.

This movie shows imagery from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory as the sun emitted an X-class flare on Jan. 7, 2014. The movie shows light in the 1600 Angstrom wavelength showing both sunspots visible on the sun's surface and the flare in the solar atmosphere. NOTE: This video loops 4 times.
This video can be downloaded at http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/...

Credit: NASA/SDO/Goddard Space Flight Center
Here is the latest image from SOHO/LASCO C3. A clear majority of the plasma cloud looks to be heading west and south of us and away from Earth. Part of the CME is for sure Earth-directed based on the response we saw on ACE EPAM but it is still not possible to exactly tell how strong the Earth-directed part is, but it is clear that we are missing out on the biggest effects. More imagery is needed to determine what kind of effects the cloud will have on Earth and when to expect it's arrival. Link
Quoting 134. BahaHurican:
Good afternoon everyone. It is currently 68 degrees with light rain here, a rain that's been falling pretty much all day. I think we hit 64 around 11 a.m., but it's warmed slightly since then. I wore a sweater AND a jacket today... okay, the jacket was mostly for the rain, but still... lol

I'm hoping we get one more day of sub- 70 temps tomorrow, but if the skies clear during the day, we may not see that.


This weather is border-line freezing lol
I am going home early from the office; the heat ain't working right and the 32 degree temps all day are coming right through my windows and driving me crazy; hands too cold to type.

I have lived in Florida all my life; I admit it; I am a cold "wimp" after more that 24 hours of below 40 temps; I could NEVER live up North. God Bless All of You who Do................................ :)
Quoting 176. Thrawst:


This weather is border-line freezing lol


my daytime high

Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 4:00 PM EST Tuesday 7 January 2014
Condition:Mostly Cloudy
Pressure:30.1 inches
Tendency:rising
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:0.7°F
Dewpoint:-9.2°F
Humidity:63%
Wind:WSW 24 gust 32 mph
Wind Chill: -23
so excited at a 30% chance of rain :) seems so odd to me that it snows at the ocean.
End of the day here for me now, with temps at 10/C and not a cloud in the sky.
An interesting thing to note from our weather tonight which I saw on the TV about 5 minutes ago is that we at 36 degrees north will be having +21/C tomorrow and a long way north of us in Extramadura, which means hard earth, a sort of Spanish version of Death Valley, they will be getting a temp of about 19/C in Merida, which was the ancient capital of Spain in Roman times.
If you had asked me out of the blue, what I thought the normal temp in Merida in January would be? {Say back in September,} I would have said about +3/C.
Its all swings and roundabouts and I have been in minus -18 here in January as well as basking in the sun.
As Dr. Masters wrote in the blog heading,"the temperature hit a sizzling 26.2°C (79°F) in Murcia, Tocino Bridge Station, Spain--not bad for the core of winter!"
Stay safe over in the North Americas.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #11
TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN, CATEGORY ONE (07F)
6:00 AM FST January 8 2014
======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Ian (990 hPa) located at 17.1S 176.8W has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots. Position poor based on hourly multispectral/GOES infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 5 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
55 NM of the center

Organization has improved slightly and deep convection remains persistent in past 12 hours. System remains in a low sheared environment under an upper ridge. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. System is slow moving as it is located in a weak steering environment between a near-equatorial ridge to the north and a subtropical ridge to the south.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.60 wrap yielding DT of 3.0. PT=3.0 and MET=3.5. Final Dvorak intensity based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a slow northwestward movement then recurving it southeastward after 12-18 hours with gradual intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 17.0S 176.9W - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 17.2S 176.8W - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 18.2S 175.5W - 50 knots (CAT 2)
Very impressive video from Morocco showing the huuuge waves of Christina. This is pretty far south for a system whose center scratched the northwestern side of the British Isles! Location of Safi/Morocco, where the video was taken.




Another good one from Morocco (Rabat). Atlantic was really furious (and did a lot of damage to beaches and coastlines by the way!).

-----------------------

Useful EuroNews video about the record swell due to (Hercules)-Christina including a map:

Europe's coastline hit by more giant waves
Euronews video 07/01 16:18 CET
Quoting 61. LargoFl:
CRYSTAL RIVER, Florida (AP) - Hundreds of heat-seeking manatees are packing the warm water springs at a Tampa Bay-area national wildlife refuge.

That's prompted officials to close those waters to humans to safeguard the protected marine mammals.

Roughly 300 manatees have packed into the canal leading to the Three Sisters Springs at the Crystal River National Wildlife Refuge. On Tuesday, officials instituted an emergency closure of the springs to activities such as swimming and kayaking so that the manatees would not be disturbed.

The closure may continue through Wednesday afternoon or longer. Visitor services specialist Ivan Vicente tells the Tampa Bay Times that the closure will continue to keep the manatees "undisturbed for as long as possible during this cold spell."

Manatees seek out warm waters when temperatures drop.
I used to dive Three Sisters Spring Many years ago ..One of the coolest things I have ever done.
Quoting 176. Thrawst:


This weather is border-line freezing lol

It's not gotten warmer than around 34-35 today in my location in the FL Panhandle. Reminds me of living back in Illinois lol.

In comparison, usually the lowest high we have in the winter here at my location is something like 48-49 degrees!

If only we had a few inches of snow on the ground, most of it probably would have stayed throughout the day...
Quoting 176. Thrawst:


This weather is border-line freezing lol
Yeah... best cold in 12 months...
Looks like Earth won't be getting the full force of an X class event, which is good.
As Dr. Master alluded to above, it doesn't appear as though Detroit climbed above -2F today, which would make today only the sixth time in that city's recorded history that the high temp has stayed below zero, and the first time since 1994 (when the high was -4F). Meanwhile, Flint reached at least 2F today, so it won't be making the same claim.
Here's an early track prediction of that CME. These aren't always super accurate, especially on the first run, but it looks pretty well Earth-directed here.

S-SE winds doing wonders here in S C IL, almost to 15 after starting out around -10 (this a.m. had widely varying lows around C IL, -6 to -12, colder where more snow). 7-21 mph winds have wind chill even above 0 when not gusting. Press down slightly to 30.13".

Should be mid 40s by weekend after slight snow chance tomorrow, cold rain Thurs./Fri., so most the snow should be disappearing. If CME coming that quickly, won't be able to see if rare chance visible this far S. Oh well!

Edit: Just noticed StL has made it above 20, we won't, already has started to drop as we get w/in an hour of sunset.
Meanwhile in Tampa a 122 year old record was just broken.

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY FL
0345 PM EST TUE JAN 07 2014

...RECORD COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR JAN 7TH SET AT TAMPA...

A RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 49 DEGREES WAS OBSERVED AT TAMPA
SO FAR TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD OF
50 SET ON THIS DATE IN 1892.
A bit of perspective on the current cold blast:

Neapolitan image

"This is not meant to diminish the very real danger and suffering associated with the current cold air outbreak, but to put the recent cold air outbreak in a longer-term perspective. The single digit value was chosen because that's the forecast low for tonight." (Deke Arndt, Facebook)
Good night everybody,
Stay safe and warm.
I'm still bothered about the cost of a megawatt being $320 US as of this moment in time. A lot better than $1500 at 5 pm my time but still enough to be concerned by!
That's 32 cents a kilowatt and that's seriously costly to say, {whisper,} the least.

Thanks for all the local updates everybody has contributed today.
193. VR46L
I actually feel sorry for lobbyists on the subject of AGW yesterday and today , they sure are earning their cash downplaying the Polar Vortex ....
Quoting 192. PlazaRed:
Good night everybody,
Stay safe and warm.
I'm still bothered about the cost of a megawatt being $320 US as of this moment in time. A lot better than $1500 at 5 pm my time but still enough to be concerned by!
That's 32 cents a kilowatt and that's seriously costly to say, {whisper,} the least.

Thanks for all the local updates everybody has contributed today.
That's spot market prices Plaza, most usage is already contracted at lower rates, so not losing on vast majority of demand. However, I'm sure many SE utilities don't have current demand fully covered, so hoping for quick warm up
Record Rain Floods Brazil
January 7, 2014, Image of the Day, NASA Earthobservatory



December 2013 was an extremely wet month for at least three states in southeastern Brazil: Espirito Santo, Minas Gerais, and Bahia. By December 27, at least seven cities set new records for the most rain received in a single month, according to a preliminary analysis conducted by Marcia Seabra, chief meteorologist in the analysis and forecast division of Brazil's National Meteorology Institute (INMET). Aimores, Minas Gerais, received 852.4 millimeters (32.8 inches) of rain from December 1-27, more than 400 percent of the average December rainfall. The previous record, set in November 2010, was 350.4 mm (13.8 in). ...

More details see link above.

Good night from still very mild Germany, stay safe in the cold if there is one at your place!

Postscript: Several wave and swell videos from "Christina" in the last days are saved in the comment section of my blog, in case someone is interested to look at them.
197. VR46L
Sun is up on Ian

Hmmm I'm not sure if a connection can be made from this..but here goes..
The last time the Atlantic saw more than 2 majors was 011 and more than 4 was 010.Those winters were cold for part of the country.What I'm saying is that perhaps the balance of a cold winter/pattern can help balance out the problems in the Atlantic being so moisture starved.
Quoting 175. Luisport:
Here is the latest image from SOHO/LASCO C3. A clear majority of the plasma cloud looks to be heading west and south of us and away from Earth. Part of the CME is for sure Earth-directed based on the response we saw on ACE EPAM but it is still not possible to exactly tell how strong the Earth-directed part is, but it is clear that we are missing out on the biggest effects. More imagery is needed to determine what kind of effects the cloud will have on Earth and when to expect it's arrival. Link
Looking at 1944 after the flare, it hasn't change much. The 4 delta spots remain stable with the southeastern spot in the trailing area close to a spot of the opposite polarity so that's the most important delta spot. A strong flare is still possible and because of the flares from today and the magnetic complexity we again raise our flare expectations for tomorrow:
M-class flare probability: 80% chance
X-class flare probability: 35% chance
Link
Well... I made it to 9F today! Woo! Its 7F out right and feels like -6F right now. Highlight was the -21F wind chill last night. Brrrrrrrr
Space Weather Message Code: WATA30
Serial Number: 109
Issue Time: 2014 Jan 07 2127 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Jan 08: None (Below G1) Jan 09: G2 (Moderate) Jan 10: G1 (Minor)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
We have to see how things play out for this server weather season.If we have a server weather season where the GOM was to cold asin 010 to produce much in terms of server weather.Or will it be like 2011 where we still have healthy cold fronts clashing with warm moist air from the gulf.That's if the gulf doesn't cool off to much this winter.
Low of 20 and a high of 35 here today. Very cold. Mid level clouds moving across sky, probably will not go below 25, although it is already below freezing.
We got above freezing at 2:30 p.m. this afternoon, fell back below at 4:45 p.m.
This is what happens when you have a high of 34 and a low of 19:





Today was truly a cold day, the ice remained frozen all day on the fountains as it only has been above freezing for a couple hours despite full sun!

It will likely plummet below freezing soon:


Walking to class this morning it was 22 with a wind chill of 10, we didn't even get out of the 20's until 1 PM today, amazingly cold day for North Florida!

One more very cold night and cold day tomorrow before a big warmup.
Mostly Cloudy

33F

1C

Humidity28%
Wind SpeedN 8 mph
Barometer30.50 in (1032.9 mb)
Dewpoint3F (-16C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Wind Chill26F (-3C)

Last Update on 7 Jan 4:53 pm EST

Current conditions at

Tallahassee Regional Airport (KTLH)

Lat: 30.4N Lon: 84.35W Elev: 69ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather



Today was a wild weather day in Tallahassee after a historic night of football. I went running in a t shirt and shorts when temps were in the upper 20's after the game last night lol.
Very similiar to us Jedkins!
Where was the 19 recorded Jedkins? Tallahassee airport obs show a low of 22.
Quoting 203. DonnieBwkGA:
Low of 20 and a high of 35 here today. Very cold. Mid level clouds moving across sky, probably will not go below 25, although it is already below freezing.
We got above freezing at 2:30 p.m. this afternoon, fell back below at 4:45 p.m.


Greetings from the Great White North

Just for the record, except for 7 hours on Nov 24th and 5 hours on Dec 15 we have been below freezing since Nov 15th, 2013

Should see some melting by end of March.

Stay warm, stay safe, remember that if your head hurts, get some fresh air immediately, carbon monoxide kills.
Quoting 204. CybrTeddy:


that little uptick is on the outer limb

"
The morning low was 15F and we made it to a whopping 28F for a high. There was plenty of ice in my neighborhood this morning where the rain from yesterday froze but the sun melted it for a bit. Already back down to 23F, with a low of 10-12F tonight.

I'm kind of sad to see the cold weather go after tomorrow. It feels like winter for a change. Warm and sunny gets boring after a while.
Currently 29.7F on da Bayou Grande!
Unreal cold for us here in P'cola!
Quoting 207. DonnieBwkGA:
Where was the 19 recorded Jedkins? Tallahassee airport obs show a low of 22.



You're right!

Even though Tallahassee regional which is the public official for Tallahassee is usually a bit colder than on campus, the campus temp at the campus weather center fell below 20.


Regardless though, whether 22 or 19, the wind was blowing strong this morning with those numbers. I had to park a half mile from class this morning. Needless to say these numbers with the wind was colder than anything I'm used to growing up in Tampa Bay.

Anyone who was in this today knows it was very cold. Even me roommate who just transferred from Michigan State last semester said it was shockingly cold, lol.
Quoting 211. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The morning low was 15F and we made it to a whopping 28F for a high. There was plenty of ice in my neighborhood this morning where the rain from yesterday froze but the sun melted it for a bit. Already back down to 23F, with a low of 10-12F tonight.

I'm kind of sad to see the cold weather go after tomorrow. It feels like winter for a change. Warm and sunny gets boring after a while.



I completely agree, a couple months of real cold weather is a great change from the same old steamy weather here in Florida as well. It makes me appreciate Spring and summer more when it comes back around as well due to the change.
Did you get one of these shirts Jedkins?

Could be a collectors item ;) Probably best not to wear on campus though.
I've been waiting but I still haven't heard any of the talkin' heads say "Get out the Gore Tex, here comes the vortex".




Link
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 6:00 PM EST Tuesday 7 January 2014
Condition:Mostly Cloudy
Pressure:30.2 inches
Tendency:rising
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:-0.6°F
Dewpoint:-8.9°F
Humidity:68%
Wind:WSW 19 gust 30 mph
Wind Chill: -23
Just had a pipe burst experience here at my house...
not good opal got it turned off
Quoting 216. ChillinInTheKeys:
I've been waiting but I still haven't heard any of the talkin' heads say "Get out the Gore Tex, here comes the vortex".



Good one!
Quoting 219. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
not good opal got it turned off

Plumbers are leaving now. There is a shower head on the side of the house, and although we had it covered with two cup insulators, it burst probably a little over an hour ago. Luckily though, it broke just on the faucet handle (from what I understand), so it was a much easier fix than it could have been if had broke inside the wall.
Very last european wave post for tonight as more tragic and very creepy news emerge. Good night for good now, stay well!

Waves in Spain sweep family out to sea, one dead
Jan. 7, 2014 at 9:57 AM
MEIRAS, Spain, Jan. 7 (UPI) -- Massive waves in Meiras, Spain, killed a man who was on the beach holding a vigil over the ashes of his late father, rescue workers said.
The body of Juan Bedoya Lopez, 50, was found on the shore. Three others were also swept out to sea.
Two are still missing, while one made it safely back to shore, TheLocal.es reported.
Poor weather conditions are making the search for the two missing family members difficult, Meiras Mayor Jose Antonio Vigo Lago said.



Waves even made it into towns as this blurry video shows:


Santander/Spain
Quoting 192. PlazaRed:
Good night everybody,
Stay safe and warm.
I'm still bothered about the cost of a megawatt being $320 US as of this moment in time. A lot better than $1500 at 5 pm my time but still enough to be concerned by!
That's 32 cents a kilowatt and that's seriously costly to say, {whisper,} the least.

Thanks for all the local updates everybody has contributed today.


These prices will probably only last a day or so. They are due to very high demand and a shortage of supply and under these conditions spot market prices can spike to very high levels.

The worst power crises in the Eastern half of the U.S. happen during deep arctic outbreaks that cover large regions e.g. Jan 17, 1977 and Jan 19, 1994. There is not enough capacity grid wide to meet demand and providers are desperate to import more. In the 1994 outbreak, the District of Columbia shut down gov't and many private businesses preventing the entire region from having to endure rolling blackouts.
I am cold here in Spring Hill, FL. So I just made a big pot of homemade chicken soup!
I hope that everyone is safe and warm tonight!
225. txjac
Quoting 224. mermaidlaw:
I am cold here in Spring Hill, FL. So I just made a big pot of homemade chicken soup!
I hope that everyone is safe and warm tonight!


Chicken soup sounds good ....I'm making white chiken chili ...great time of the year for it!
Quoting 224. mermaidlaw:
I am cold here in Spring Hill, FL. So I just made a big pot of homemade chicken soup!
I hope that everyone is safe and warm tonight!
had chicken soup for lunch
Looks like Old Man Winter/Mother Nature will give me a break for a while. Maybe some cold rain later but thats easily handled. Glad to see both are happy again :p
WU should do a section for food.Weather can affect your mood on what food you want to eat.
Quoting 225. txjac:


Chicken soup sounds good ....I'm making white chiken chili ...great time of the year for it!
I just made chicken and rice w/ veggies and sage..very good when frigid.
232. txjac
Geneva Ohio family builds giant igloo

GENEVA — One dad, three kids, lots of snow, and 20 hours of work in single-digit temperatures produced one impressive igloo Monday.

Link

Looks like fun
Even though the high at my house was only 15 I still had ice creme.Haha.
10 degrees was the observed low yesterday for my town from a COOP station... got to wonder how colder it was this morning.
boy that red keeps getting smaller and smaller



We continue to hear Klimate Klowns like James "I believed in Global Warming until I learned how much it would cost to mitigate it" Inhofe cater to the naive, gullible, and willfully ignorant by blathering on and on about how the current US cold snap is 'proof' that the planet isn't warming, and that GW no longer exists.

Sigh...

I earlier posted a graph showing how, despite occasional outbreaks such as the current one, extremely cold temperatures have become increasingly rare across most of the US. Here are a couple more, courtesy of Climate Central (many cities listed near the bottom of the page) (The solid yellow lines indicate the linear trend since 1970. All graphs courtesy of Climate Central):

Neapolitan image

Neapolitan image

Neapolitan image

Bottom line: if you think it's gotten warmer where you live, you're not mistaken...
strange..when I went to post the 6-10 day outlook from the CPC..there was an image there with a fraction of the east coast in Red..but now I get a message saying it cannot be displayed because it contains errors..good luck with that skill set CPC..
Quoting 237. ncstorm:
strange..when I went to post the 6-10 day outlook from the CPC..there was an image there with a fraction of the east coast in Red..but now I get a message saying it cannot be displayed because it contains errors..good luck with that skill set CPC..
Works well for me; it would appear top be user error. Feel free to WU-mail me if you'd like some help...
Quoting 236. Neapolitan:
We continue to hear Klimate Klowns like James "I believed in Global Warming until I learned how much it would cost to mitigate it" Inhofe cater to the naive, gullible, and willfully ignorant by blathering on and on about how the current US cold snap is 'proof' that the planet isn't warming, and that GW no longer exists.

Sigh...

I earlier posted a graph showing how, despite occasional outbreaks such as the current one, extremely cold temperatures have become increasingly rare across most of the US. Here are a couple more, courtesy of Climate Central (many cities listed near the bottom of the page) (The solid yellow lines indicate the linear trend since 1970. All graphs courtesy of Climate Central):

Neapolitan image

Neapolitan image

Neapolitan image

Bottom line: if you think it's gotten warmer where you live, you're not mistaken...


Nea..I agree with you completely..the cold snap we are having is not proof of any global warming even though the US has more low temps than high temps in 2013..

I also believe that Klimate Clowns who try to use the same explanation of a heatwave in fairbanks, Alaska or death valley high temps as proof of GW can be put in the same category..

Quoting 238. Neapolitan:
Works well for me; it would appear top be user error. Feel free to WU-mail me if you'd like some help...


can you post it then..must be on my end..:) TIA..
Neapolitan,

I may have something to add. I created this graph myself and it shows that cold temperatures are becoming increasingly rare here in Montreal, Quebec as well.

I think this speaks for itself.

Quoting 236. Neapolitan:

We continue to hear Klimate Klowns like James "I believed in Global Warming until I learned how much it would cost to mitigate it" Inhofe cater to the naive, gullible, and willfully ignorant by blathering on and on about how the current US cold snap is 'proof' that the planet isn't warming, and that GW no longer exists.

Sigh...



Sen. James Inhofe is certain it’s all a hoax. His big money contributors in the oil industry verify his findings.
Quoting 242. Xandra:



Sen. James Inhofe is certain it’s all a hoax. His big money contributors in the oil industry verify his findings.
only thing that's a hoax is the senator himself
hocus-pocus
Quoting 236. Neapolitan:
We continue to hear Klimate Klowns like James "I believed in Global Warming until I learned how much it would cost to mitigate it" Inhofe cater to the naive, gullible, and willfully ignorant by blathering on and on about how the current US cold snap is 'proof' that the planet isn't warming, and that GW no longer exists.

Sigh...

I earlier posted a graph showing how, despite occasional outbreaks such as the current one, extremely cold temperatures have become increasingly rare across most of the US. Here are a couple more, courtesy of Climate Central (many cities listed near the bottom of the page) (The solid yellow lines indicate the linear trend since 1970. All graphs courtesy of Climate Central):

Neapolitan image

Neapolitan image

Neapolitan image

Bottom line: if you think it's gotten warmer where you live, you're not mistaken...


I can confirm the data for St. Louis. It only got below zero once in 8 years I lived in a suburb town of St. Louis from 2001-2009 that I can remember.
Quoting 230. washingtonian115:
WU should do a section for food.Weather can affect your mood on what food you want to eat.


I have a soft-spot for ice cream year round, no matter the temperature.
We achieved a low of -2.6F here in Goodlettsville, TN this morning at 6:30 AM and a high of 21.2F at 1:20 PM.

Oh, and I just received an e-mail:

Good evening, this is an important message from Metro Nashville Public Schools. Metro Schools will be closed tomorrow, Wednesday, Jan. 8. This closure is due to mechanical issues with many of our buses and heating and plumbing issues in buildings and portable classrooms brought on by the extremely cold temperatures of the past few days. Please check our website, www.mnps.org or follow us on Facebook or Twitter for updates. Thank you.
And, here is Da Map of Awesomeness:

School Closings

Blue with animation means the county is closed, green means delay(s).
Quoting 246. Astrometeor:


I have a soft-spot for ice cream year round, no matter the temperature.

I had some last night and it was as good as ever :p
250. VR46L
Quoting 236. Neapolitan:
We continue to hear Klimate Klowns like James "I believed in Global Warming until I learned how much it would cost to mitigate it" Inhofe cater to the naive, gullible, and willfully ignorant by blathering on and on about how the current US cold snap is 'proof' that the planet isn't warming, and that GW no longer exists.

Sigh...

I earlier posted a graph showing how, despite occasional outbreaks such as the current one, extremely cold temperatures have become increasingly rare across most of the US. Here are a couple more, courtesy of Climate Central (many cities listed near the bottom of the page) (The solid yellow lines indicate the linear trend since 1970. All graphs courtesy of Climate Central):

Neapolitan image

Neapolitan image

Neapolitan image

Bottom line: if you think it's gotten warmer where you live, you're not mistaken...


Wow thats alot of work you put in ..... Boxs shadowing etc ... Did you write the code yourself , I guess if folks quote more of what you are telling us , it will sink in ... I used to do a trick like that when I was at school ... flash cards it goes in subliminally,
Quoting 248. Astrometeor:
And, here is Da Map of Awesomeness:

School Closings

Blue with animation means the county is closed, green means delay(s).

Haha. I think that is a better idea then where I am. Decisions are made by the county mostly. Its the same in Maryland. I will see that Baltimore County schools are closed or Harford County schools are closed. I wish it was like that here. Here, every school district decides if they are going to school or not. That makes for a much longer list of closings that you have to scroll through to find your school district.
How many times do we have to see those same graphs over and over? Can you imagine if we have to do that with the TWO during Hurricane season.
Quoting 251. Doppler22:

Haha. I think that is a better idea then where I am. Decisions are made by the county mostly. Its the same in Maryland. I will see that Baltimore County schools are closed or Harford County schools are closed. I wish it was like that here. Here, every school district decides if they are going to school or not. That makes for a much longer list of closings that you have to scroll through to find your school district.


Well, down here the school districts take up the entire county. So, only one decision has to be made. Only Memphis (I think) had two school districts in Shelby County...but they merged two years ago.
Chilly today in Lake Worth/West Palm. Wind made it feel worse than what it was. Dog loved it! Currently @53°. Forecast to hang around that through out the evening and morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
711 PM EST TUE JAN 7 2014

.UPDATE...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS HAS ALLOWED SCATTERED FAST MOVING
SHOWERS TO PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IS STILL PARKED ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH RESULTING IN
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. 00Z TEMPERATURES THIS
EVENING ARE HOVERING IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS WHICH IS ALREADY A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN OVERNIGHT LOWS
DEPICTED BY MAV GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...WITH LOW LEVEL OVERCAST CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT...DO NOT THINK LOWS WILL DIP DOWN
MUCH FURTHER. SO DECIDED TO DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES AND
UPDATED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS.
Quoting 253. Astrometeor:


Well, down here the school districts take up the entire county. So, only one decision has to be made. Only Memphis (I think) had two school districts in Shelby County...but they merged two years ago.

Ah okay. There are 16 school districts in my county.
It never ceases to amaze me when there's a cold snap, in winter mind you, people come out and say, "if the Earth's warming why is it so *expletive* cold outside. They can't even get the weather two weeks in advance right, how do they know what it will be like in 50 years?" I feel like I'm the only one who understands the difference between weather and climate sometimes whilst scrolling on Facbeook.
Quoting 252. Grothar:
How many times do we have to see those same graphs over and over? Can you imagine if we have to do that with the TWO during Hurricane season.
Gro I've discovered that some things are a tradition on Wu and likely won't go away any time soon :).
Quoting 256. CybrTeddy:
It never ceases to amaze me when there's a cold snap, in winter mind you, people come out and say, "if the Earth's warming why is it so *expletive* cold outside. They can't even get the weather two weeks in advance right, how do they know what it will be like in 50 years?" I feel like I'm the only one who understands the difference between weather and climate sometimes whilst scrolling on Facbeook.

Forget it, Teddy. It's Facebook. (Apologies to Jack Nicholson and co.)
I know i'm a bit late for the solar flare, but i think this should point out it's expected impact on earth.

Space Weather Message Code: WATA30
Serial Number: 109
Issue Time: 2014 Jan 07 2127 UTC
WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Jan 08: None (Below G1) Jan 09: G2 (Moderate) Jan 10: G1 (Minor)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

NOAA's Space Weather Alerts
Sometimes I love living in Honduras and others I hate it.This coldfront have leave flash floods all over the northern coast + many have lost electricity.Today I was suppose to come back to school but classes were cancelled for today and it looks for tomorrow to, and its just not my city San Pedro sula, Tela and Progreso are suffering the same.Link
Quoting 256. CybrTeddy:
It never ceases to amaze me when there's a cold snap, in winter mind you, people come out and say, "if the Earth's warming why is it so *expletive* cold outside. They can't even get the weather two weeks in advance right, how do they know what it will be like in 50 years?" I feel like I'm the only one who understands the difference between weather and climate sometimes whilst scrolling on Facbeook.
It's facebook.What did you expect?.Haven't you seen the picture TWA13 posted a few days ago that was from that site?.They said the current invest in the west pacific would be the next Heiyan.
Quoting 259. JTDailyUpdate:
I know i'm a bit late for the solar flare, but i think this should point out it's expected impact on earth.

Space Weather Message Code: WATA30
Serial Number: 109
Issue Time: 2014 Jan 07 2127 UTC
WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Jan 08: None (Below G1) Jan 09: G2 (Moderate) Jan 10: G1 (Minor)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

NOAA's Space Weather Alerts


I've never known much about the solar storms that affect Earth. It says Category G2 storm expected. What is the scale for solar storms??
Quoting 259. JTDailyUpdate:
I know i'm a bit late for the solar flare, but i think this should point out it's expected impact on earth.

Space Weather Message Code: WATA30
Serial Number: 109
Issue Time: 2014 Jan 07 2127 UTC
WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Jan 08: None (Below G1) Jan 09: G2 (Moderate) Jan 10: G1 (Minor)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

NOAA's Space Weather Alerts
so I may get to see the northern lights good enough for me
Temps are dropping at a pretty impressive rate across central and North Florida. I wonder how long it'll be until the wind veers around to the NE and the warmer air starts to flow back in... I barely touch freezing this morning, but am sitting at 35 right now.
Also speaking about the cold from my neck of the woods:



PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
246 PM EST TUE JAN 07 2014

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES SET THIS MORNING...

ACTUAL MORNING LOWS 1/7 RECORD LOWS
/NEW RECORD LOWS/ /PREVIOUS/

PHILADELPHIA, PA... 4 DEGREES 7 DEGREES IN 1988
WILMINGTON, DE..... 4 DEGREES 10 DEGREES IN 1988/1942
GEORGETOWN, DE..... 8 DEGREES 9 DEGREES IN 1988
READING, PA........ 1 DEGREE 6 DEGREES IN 1988
TRENTON, NJ........ 2 DEGREES 6 DEGREES IN 1912
MOUNT POCONO, PA... -8 DEGREES -5 DEGREES IN 1988

...PHILADELPHIA...
THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE ON RECORD IS 5 DEGREES, WHICH OCCURRED
ON FEBRUARY 10, 1899.

FOR JANUARY 7TH, THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 20 DEGREES, WHICH
OCCURRED WAY BACK IN 1878.

THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE ON RECORD IS -11 DEGREES, WHICH OCCURRED
ON FEBRUARY 9, 1934.


...ALLENTOWN...
THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE ON RECORD IS 2 DEGREES, WHICH OCCURRED
ON JANUARY 19, 1994.

FOR JANUARY 7TH, THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 14 DEGREES, WHICH
OCCURRED BACK IN 1942.

THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE ON RECORD IS -15 DEGREES, WHICH OCCURRED
ON JANUARY 21, 1994.

...ATLANTIC CITY...
THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE ON RECORD IS 7 DEGREES, WHICH OCCURRED
ON JANUARY 17, 1977.

FOR JANUARY 7TH, THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 22 DEGREES, WHICH
OCCURRED IN 1988.

THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE ON RECORD IS -10 DEGREES, WHICH OCCURRED
ON JANUARY 17, 1977.


Quoting 262. Doppler22:


I've never known much about the solar storms that affect Earth. It says Category G2 storm expected. What is the scale for solar storms??


seven
Quoting 261. washingtonian115:
It's facebook.What did you expect?.Haven't you seen the picture TWA13 posted a few years ago that was from that site?.They said the current invest in the west pacific would be the next Heiyan.
Hahaha then you should come to Honduras that the majority believe that everything that happens is because we are disobeying God.
Quoting 262. Doppler22:


I've never known much about the solar storms that affect Earth. It says Category G2 storm expected. What is the scale for solar storms??


Here is the link for you doppler

NOAA Space Weather Scales
Quoting 264. FLWeatherFreak91:
Temps are dropping at a pretty impressive rate across central and North Florida. I wonder how long it'll be until the wind veers around to the NE and the warmer air starts to flow back in... I barely touch freezing this morning, but am sitting at 35 right now.
till the paling of the sky sunrise
Quoting 264. FLWeatherFreak91:
Temps are dropping at a pretty impressive rate across central and North Florida. I wonder how long it'll be until the wind veers around to the NE and the warmer air starts to flow back in... I barely touch freezing this morning, but am sitting at 35 right now.
Quoting 252. Grothar:
How many times do we have to see those same graphs over and over? Can you imagine if we have to do that with the TWO during Hurricane season.


Do you not like 6 or 7 bloggers posting the next TWO simultaneously and taking up a lot of room? Isn't that like, nostalgic?
Rhinelander, Wisconsin (Airport)
Updated: 6:53 PM CST on January 07, 2014
Clear
-14 °F
Clear
Windchill: -26 °F
Humidity: 79%
Dew Point: -19 °F
Wind: 5 mph from the West
Pressure: 30.22 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles

Better than yesterday high -17 low -30 +wind chill
allancalderini ~ CIMSS Satellite blog made an entry on the Tehuano wind event the other day. That just further funneled the moist air at you.
VR.."Fewer Frigid Nights..Fewer Frigid Nights..Fewer Frigid Nights"....


I see the light now...
I do trust that climate change and global warming are occurring, but I wonder how much of a contribution to the lack of sub-zero evenings are due to contrails. A LOT more of them around now than in the recent past.

Keep tossing a blanket over the sky, especially city centers, and I am not surprised it keeps things a little warmer. A contrail has to be at least significant as CO2.
Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 5:18 PM PST on January 07, 2014
Clear
62.5 °F
Clear
Humidity: 22%
Dew Point: 23 °F

Wind: 3.0 mph from the SSW
Wind Gust: 4.0 mph
Pressure: 30.04 in (Steady)
Visibility: 10.0 miles

low 49.9 high 67.5 ... 6.1F less than yesterday...
Quoting 256. CybrTeddy:
It never ceases to amaze me when there's a cold snap, in winter mind you, people come out and say, "if the Earth's warming why is it so *expletive* cold outside. They can't even get the weather two weeks in advance right, how do they know what it will be like in 50 years?" I feel like I'm the only one who understands the difference between weather and climate sometimes whilst scrolling on Facbeook.


same as people exclaiming when its 110 degrees in death valley in the middle of August.."must be global warming"..first its a desert and second its in the middle of summer..duhhh..

I agree wholeheartedly Teddy..
Quoting 268. JTDailyUpdate:


Here is the link for you doppler

NOAA Space Weather Scales

Thanks!!
Quoting 264. FLWeatherFreak91:
Temps are dropping at a pretty impressive rate across central and North Florida. I wonder how long it'll be until the wind veers around to the NE and the warmer air starts to flow back in... I barely touch freezing this morning, but am sitting at 35 right now.

Tell me about it.. the low was forecast at 48. It's 40.1ºF. The other night it was like this. Warmed up with the wind shift from the ocean but then unexpectedly shifted back for an hour putting the low well under forecast..
Quoting 276. PedleyCA:
Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 5:18 PM PST on January 07, 2014
Clear
62.5 °F
Clear
Humidity: 22%
Dew Point: 23 °F

Wind: 3.0 mph from the SSW
Wind Gust: 4.0 mph
Pressure: 30.04 in (Steady)
Visibility: 10.0 miles

low 49.9 high 67.5 ... 6.1F less than yesterday...
cooling off a little
Quoting 279. Skyepony:

Tell me about it.. the low was forecast at 48. It's 40.1ºF. The other night it was like this. Warmed up with the wind shift from the ocean but then unexpectedly shifted back for an hour putting the low well under forecast..
how low ya think it will go

looks to me like 35 to 37 maybe

Euro shows a lot of rain for C FL Thursday thru Monday next week.



Here's Thursday's rainmaker for FL.

Quoting 281. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
how low ya think it will go

looks to me like 35 to 37 maybe



Last night the expected low temps busted and a freeze never materialized but tonight appears to be a different story as I am at 35 right now which was my low last night.
Here come the NE winds.

Maybe some severe weather Sunday afternoon? Temps are forecast to hit 86 with dewpoints near 70.


Quoting 198. washingtonian115:
Hmmm I'm not sure if a connection can be made from this..but here goes..
The last time the Atlantic saw more than 2 majors was 011 and more than 4 was 010.Those winters were cold for part of the country.What I'm saying is that perhaps the balance of a cold winter/pattern can help balance out the problems in the Atlantic being so moisture starved.
Africa is gonna produce good storms lets hope.
Quoting 287. Climate175:
Africa is gonna produce good storms lets hope.


They did last year. Chantal was a fine wave, Dorian was a good wave, there were lots of nice-looking storms that rolled off the African continent.

They just all died...
Quoting 271. Astrometeor:


Do you not like 6 or 7 bloggers posting the next TWO simultaneously and taking up a lot of room? Isn't that like, nostalgic?


Did we even have a TWO this past season. All I can remember it moaning and groaning.
Link, Looks like a Hurricane Game.
Africa is as dry as a bone right now. I think it is because it is dry season right now. When does Africa start getting a little more active with waves? April ?
Quoting 288. Astrometeor:


They did last year. Chantal was a fine wave, Dorian was a good wave, there were lots of nice-looking storms that rolled off the African continent.

They just all died...
Who knows..Maybe Dorian could have lived up to the GFS lies of being a monster ravaging the caribbean if it was't for SAL.Thank goodness for SAL.
Quoting Grothar:


Did we even have a TWO this past season. All I can remember it moaning and groaning.

Should have taken your painkillers……

:):))

Greetings, Old Fellow.
Quoting 292. washingtonian115:
Who knows..Maybe Dorian could have lived up to the GFS lies of being a monster ravaging the caribbean if it was't for SAL.Thank goodness for SAL.
SAL looks very strong right now.
Quoting Climate175:
Africa is as dry as a bone right now. I think it is because it is dry season right now. When does Africa start getting a little more active with waves? April ?

June.
LOL
Quoting 295. pottery:

June.
Ya by June waves start rolling off but do not turn into hurricanes since it is still too early in the Hurricane Season. Sometimes waves can roll off good in July like Chantal and Dorian did.
Latest WRF model is showing heavy rain moving across S FL tonight. Also shows temps warming after midnight across eastern FL.

Quoting Climate175:
Ya by June waves start rolling off but do not turn into hurricanes since it is still too early in the Hurricane Season. Sometimes waves can roll off good in July like Chantal and Dorian did.

OK, didn't realised you meant ''waves that had a chance at TS status''
I'm at 11n 61w, so I look for those early waves to start our rainy season in earnest.
The ITCZ has kind of played hide-and-seek these past 2 years down here.
Quoting 294. Climate175:
SAL looks very strong right now.
Well it's January xD.
Rain also increases near Tampa around 8am tomorrow and then spreads over orlando later in the day.

PWAT's dramatically increase across FL in 12 hours.

Quoting 300. washingtonian115:
Well it's January xD.
LOL you didn't know it was a joke LOL
Quoting 252. Grothar:
How many times do we have to see those same graphs over and over? Can you imagine if we have to do that with the TWO during Hurricane season.
Yes, imagine it. I've never seen the same model run or TWO or satellite loop posted more than once during hurricane season... ;-)
The EPS weeklies show a piece of the polar vortex dropping into southern Canada again by week 2.

Back into the freezer if this occurs.
The famous smiley is back!.
Quoting 306. washingtonian115:
The famous smiley is back!.
Here they come ! Get ready for the cakes Washi ! :)
A follow-up to an earlier comment: Detroit officially climbed to -1F today for a high. Detroit hasn't had a sub-zero high since January 19, 1994, and if that stands, it'll be only the sixth time in the city's recorded history that the high has failed to reach above 0F. However, the temperature there has actually risen a few degrees over the past several hours, so it's possible the high might still reach 0F before midnight; we'll have to see.
Quoting 224. mermaidlaw:
I am cold here in Spring Hill, FL. So I just made a big pot of homemade chicken soup!
I hope that everyone is safe and warm tonight!


I about live on soup through the winters here in N Wales!

Seeing and watching clips from Europe, some awesome seas. I did go out to Anglesey today, and the waves were definitely hammering, but didn't get any photos near as dramatic as some I've seen (and some I just wouldn't have risked going out to take TBH!). Had to wash the car when I came back, as was so covered in sea foam and spray though...musta looked very silly doing so at night LOL

I keep looking, but doesn't look like anywhere I could get to in decent time here, will be clear for some possible auroras..as usual bleh.

Hope everyone can stay warm and safe! Some incredible photos from the big freeze over there!
Quoting 233. washingtonian115:
Even though the high at my house was only 15 I still had ice creme.Haha.


When I was in Colorado Springs...the ice cream aisle was always surprisingly busy at times when it was well below freezing! We seemed to crave it then too! LOL
Quoting 308. Neapolitan:
A follow-up to an earlier comment: Detroit officially climbed to -1F today for a high. Detroit hasn't had a sub-zero high since January 19, 1994, and if that stands, it'll be only the sixth time in the city's recorded history that the high has failed to reach above 0F. However, the temperature there has actually risen a few degrees over the past several hours, so it's possible the high might still reach 0F before midnight; we'll have to see.
our forecasted low is 0 for tonight we have fallen just slightly below at the moment winds are now out of the sw that's a warming wind

Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 9:00 PM EST Tuesday 7 January 2014
Condition:Drifting Snow
Pressure:30.2 inches
Tendency:rising
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:-0.4°F
Dewpoint:-8.3°F
Humidity:69%
Wind:SW 24 gust 31 mph
Wind Chill: -24

Quoting 304. Neapolitan:
Yes, imagine it. I've never seen the same model run or TWO or satellite loop posted more than once during hurricane season... ;-)


So I guess a designated blogger can only quote you once from now on as we try to do the twos for hurricane season..

remember guys..when Nea posts with graphs from now on, a designated blogger will have to be allocated to quote Nea once where all questions will sent to said blogger and then posted in the quote.

those who take on this task, I can't promise your comment count will go up with the new position but you can see a lot of emails in the future :)

313. txjac
Quoting 309. mitthbevnuruodo:


I about live on soup through the winters here in N Wales!

Seeing and watching clips from Europe, some awesome seas. I did go out to Anglesey today, and the waves were definitely hammering, but didn't get any photos near as dramatic as some I've seen (and some I just wouldn't have risked going out to take TBH!). Had to wash the car when I came back, as was so covered in sea foam and spray though...musta looked very silly doing so at night LOL

I keep looking, but doesn't look like anywhere I could get to in decent time here, will be clear for some possible auroras..as usual bleh.

Hope everyone can stay warm and safe! Some incredible photos from the big freeze over there!


Love watching waves crash ...I dont take good pictures of them either. My mind takes awesome pictures though
314. yoboi
Quoting 308. Neapolitan:
A follow-up to an earlier comment: Detroit officially climbed to -1F today for a high. Detroit hasn't had a sub-zero high since January 19, 1994, and if that stands, it'll be only the sixth time in the city's recorded history that the high has failed to reach above 0F. However, the temperature there has actually risen a few degrees over the past several hours, so it's possible the high might still reach 0F before midnight; we'll have to see.



Can you link to where you are getting the temps???? TIA
Quoting 314. yoboi:



Can you link to where you are getting the temps???? TIA
Sure.

Detroit hourly temperature record

Flint hourly temperature record

Cold temperature stats for Detroit and Flint

Quoting 314. yoboi:



Can you link to where you are getting the temps???? TIA


the weather channel said 0 was a high today..I guess it depends where the thermostat was placed at..

interlude


000
FXUS62 KTAE 080229
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
929 PM EST Tue Jan 7 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Tallahassee only reached a high of 35 this afternoon. Although
this didn`t break any records, it came very close. The all time
record for coldest maximum temperature in Tallahassee on January
7th was 34 set back in 1924, but an observed high of 35 ties the
second coldest maximum temperature observed on this day. This was
the lowest maximum temperature observed in almost 18 years. The
last time a high temperature of 35 was observed in Tallahassee was
February 4th, 1996. This is also the coldest temperature ever recorded
following a Seminole victory in the National Championship.

Current forecast remains on track for the rest of this evening.
Current infrared satellite loop indicates upper level cirrus moving
over our forecast area. Despite upper level cloud cover, surface
observations indicate steadily falling temperatures over the past
couple of hours therefore decided to keep previous minimum
temperature forecast. Surface high pressure will continue to slide
eastward overnight gradually transitioning our low level flow
northeasterly, so this will be the last night of frigid
temperatures with a widespread hard freeze expected everywhere.

&&
I know this is laughable to you guys up north, but to those of us who live in Louisiana, it's not exactly common, so just... shush, okay? Okay. :)

... Record low temperatures set across the area this morning...

A number of record low temperatures were established today.

At Baton Rouge... the low temperature this morning was 19 degrees.
This breaks the previous record of 20 degrees that occurred in 1970.

At Slidell... the low temperature this morning was 17 degrees. This
breaks the previous record of 20 degrees that occurred in 1970.

At Gulfport... the low temperature this morning was 19 degrees. This
breaks the previous record of 25 degrees that occurred in 2006.

At McComb... the low temperature this morning was 14 degrees. This
breaks the previous record of 16 degrees that occurred in 1970.

Quoting 311. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
our forecasted low is 0 for tonight we have fallen just slightly below at the moment winds are now out of the sw that's a warming wind

Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 9:00 PM EST Tuesday 7 January 2014
Condition:Drifting Snow
Pressure:30.2 inches
Tendency:rising
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:-0.4°F
Dewpoint:-8.3°F
Humidity:69%
Wind:SW 24 gust 31 mph
Wind Chill: -24




Only that far north could you have a temp of 0 with gusty SW winds. Down here that means relatively warm and humid even in winter.
Quoting 318. Jedkins01:

000
FXUS62 KTAE 080229
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
929 PM EST Tue Jan 7 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Tallahassee only reached a high of 35 this afternoon. Although
this didn`t break any records, it came very close. The all time
record for coldest maximum temperature in Tallahassee on January
7th was 34 set back in 1924, but an observed high of 35 ties the
second coldest maximum temperature observed on this day. This was
the lowest maximum temperature observed in almost 18 years. The
last time a high temperature of 35 was observed in Tallahassee was
February 4th, 1996. This is also the coldest temperature ever recorded
following a Seminole victory in the National Championship.

Current forecast remains on track for the rest of this evening.
Current infrared satellite loop indicates upper level cirrus moving
over our forecast area. Despite upper level cloud cover, surface
observations indicate steadily falling temperatures over the past
couple of hours therefore decided to keep previous minimum
temperature forecast. Surface high pressure will continue to slide
eastward overnight gradually transitioning our low level flow
northeasterly, so this will be the last night of frigid
temperatures with a widespread hard freeze expected everywhere.

&&


A few more hours of cold left here as high PWAT is surging north from the FL Straits now. Our is occuring now and temps will rise after 1am.


Snow/cold day #5

Berkley School District will be closed Wednesday, January 8.


This will be the last cancellation as a more southerly flow develops and temperatures begin to moderate.
Quoting 319. KoritheMan:
I know this is laughable to you guys up north, but to those of us who live in Louisiana, it's not exactly common, so just... shush, okay? Okay. :)

... Record low temperatures set across the area this morning...

A number of record low temperatures were established today.

At Baton Rouge... the low temperature this morning was 19 degrees.
This breaks the previous record of 20 degrees that occurred in 1970.

At Slidell... the low temperature this morning was 17 degrees. This
breaks the previous record of 20 degrees that occurred in 1970.

At Gulfport... the low temperature this morning was 19 degrees. This
breaks the previous record of 25 degrees that occurred in 2006.

At McComb... the low temperature this morning was 14 degrees. This
breaks the previous record of 16 degrees that occurred in 1970.



I am wondering...what does the leader of the Republican Party Rush Limbaugh think about this polar vortex thing? I wish there was some video.
Quoting 319. KoritheMan:
I know this is laughable to you guys up north, but to those of us who live in Louisiana, it's not exactly common, so just... shush, okay? Okay. :)

... Record low temperatures set across the area this morning...

A number of record low temperatures were established today.

At Baton Rouge... the low temperature this morning was 19 degrees.
This breaks the previous record of 20 degrees that occurred in 1970.

At Slidell... the low temperature this morning was 17 degrees. This
breaks the previous record of 20 degrees that occurred in 1970.

At Gulfport... the low temperature this morning was 19 degrees. This
breaks the previous record of 25 degrees that occurred in 2006.

At McComb... the low temperature this morning was 14 degrees. This
breaks the previous record of 16 degrees that occurred in 1970.

43 years ago
Quoting 320. Jedkins01:



Only that far north could you have a temp of 0 with gusty SW winds. Down here that means relatively warm and humid even in winter.


does that in the summer here
winter too but warm to me is likly cold for you
Quoting 322. wxchaser97:
Snow/cold day #5

Berkley School District will be closed Wednesday, January 8.


This will be the last cancellation as a more southerly flow develops and temperatures begin to moderate.
dang..
Ian looks alright:


Quoting 323. GeoffreyWPB:


I am wondering...what does the leader of the Republican Party Rush Limbaugh think about this polar vortex thing? I wish there was some video.
:]
Quoting 328. KoritheMan:

:]


Why are you smiling?

*creeped out look*

You never smile.

;-)
Quoting 327. Astrometeor:
Ian looks alright:

faint cdo taking shape there its small

Quoting 327. Astrometeor:
Ian looks alright:

I thought you said "airtight" at first, and I was like o_O
Ian's 5-day:

Edit: See post 345.
This is a statistical graphic by Charles Minard, and is considered by some to be the greatest graph ever created. The width of the invasion represents the number of Napoleon's surviving troops. At the bottom is the temperature below zero in Celsius. 422,000 troops invaded Russia. 10,000 survived.

Don't mess with "General Winter"!

I thought the current cold snap would increase interest in "General Winter"

Click to expand.

Down to 50° in West Palm. On a side note...Larry Mann passed away yesterday. Who was Larry Mann? Pat would know...

16F currently.

First truly arctic day here in a long time. At my window low was 2.8 and high was 15.4 degrees. Bracing!
Quoting 323. GeoffreyWPB:


I am wondering...what does the leader of the Republican Party Rush Limbaugh think about this polar vortex thing? I wish there was some video.


Rush
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #12
TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN, CATEGORY TWO (07F)
12:00 PM FST January 8 2014
======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Ian (985 hPa) located at 16.8S 177.0W has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots. Position fair based on hourly multispectralGOES visible/infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 5 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===================
30 NM of the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
60 NM of the center

Organization has improved and deep convection remains persistent in past 24 hours. System remains in a low sheared environment under an upper ridge. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. System is slow moving as it is located in a weak steering environment between near-equatorial ridge to the north and sub-tropical ridge to the south.

Dvorak analysis is based on 0.80 wrap yielding DT=3.5. PT=3.5 and MET=3.5. Final Dvorak intensity based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a slow north northwestward movement then recurving it southeastward after 12-18 hours with gradual intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 16.8S 176.9W - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 17.1S 176.5W - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 18.3S 175.2W - 55 knots (CAT 2)

Tropical Cyclone Ian Watches/Warnings (Tonga Island)
================================================= ===

A Tropical Cyclone Alert is now in force for Va'vau group and Niuas

A Strong Wind Warning is now in force for Va'vau group and Niuas
Quoting 320. Jedkins01:



Only that far north could you have a temp of 0 with gusty SW winds. Down here that means relatively warm and humid even in winter.


Nashville TN set their all time record low of -17 on January 21, 1985, while SSW winds were blowing ;)
Observed at: Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 10:24 PM EST Tuesday 7 January 2014
Condition:Light Snow
Pressure:30.3 inches
Tendency:rising
Visibility:10 miles
Temperature:0.3°F
Dewpoint:-7.2°F
Humidity:70%
Wind:SW 22 gust 31 mph
Wind Chill: -22

temps on the rise from last hr
Quoting 340. BaltimoreBrian:


Nashville TN set their all time record low of -17 on January 21, 1985, while SSW winds were blowing ;)
must of been at the start of a rtn flow
Evening, all....

Finally @ home and in a position to check on the wx...

So the front went through Nassau between 2 and 3 a.m. as marked by a 6 degree drop. Temps fell steadily to a low of 66 around 11 a.m., and it's stayed below 70 all day. It rained pretty much the entire day, though never heavily, and winds were mostly from the NNE at 15 - 20 mph with gusts as high as 35 mph. While we never hit our average high today, our average low for 7 Jan is 62, and we're not likely to see that before midnight...

There's a slight chance we'll go below 64 around dawn, but I think the rain and overcast skies are more likely to inhibit a serious temperature drop.

Overall it's been a nasty day wx-wise, as the wet conditions make the cold seem more penetrating than usual. This is the sort of day one wants to curl up in bed with a nice hot cup of soup and read a good book, not get out there gung ho to save the world, or at least the day...

Tomorrow looks like more of the same, only warmer. With the front due to hang around and eventually return as some sort of warm front, we could be having miserably wet January wx for most of the week.
Quoting 342. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
must of been at the start of a rtn flow


It was. The high was sliding east overnight. I think I remember that the coldest location in the lower 48 that day was Knoxville, TN. The west was very warm
Quoting 332. Astrometeor:
Ian's 5-day:



Weather underground map for IAN looks broken. as the track does not go west of the international dateline.

Quoting 230. washingtonian115:
WU should do a section for food.Weather can affect your mood on what food you want to eat.
Beef stew, that's what I felt like eating tonight, with some hearty homemade whole wheat bread... unfortunately I had to settle for "fire engine", which is the local name for steamed corned beef and white rice.... a local "delicacy" of sorts...

No, Knoxville wasn't the coldest place. Mount Mitchell NC was -34

But Knoxville was -24 with calm to light SSW winds.
Quoting 233. washingtonian115:
Even though the high at my house was only 15 I still had ice creme.Haha.
Ice cream always tastes better to me when the wx is cold out... lol

Quoting 247. Astrometeor:
We achieved a low of -2.6F here in Goodlettsville, TN this morning at 6:30 AM and a high of 21.2F at 1:20 PM.

Oh, and I just received an e-mail:

Good evening, this is an important message from Metro Nashville Public Schools. Metro Schools will be closed tomorrow, Wednesday, Jan. 8. This closure is due to mechanical issues with many of our buses and heating and plumbing issues in buildings and portable classrooms brought on by the extremely cold temperatures of the past few days. Please check our website, www.mnps.org or follow us on Facebook or Twitter for updates. Thank you.
Can't believe Nashville is using portable classrooms. Why aren't they building proper buildings where they are needed?

Quoting 260. allancalderini:
Sometimes I love living in Honduras and others I hate it.This coldfront have leave flash floods all over the northern coast + many have lost electricity.Today I was suppose to come back to school but classes were cancelled for today and it looks for tomorrow to, and its just not my city San Pedro sula, Tela and Progreso are suffering the same.Link
I didn't realize how far south the tail of this thing got. I knew the Cubans got some of it..

Quoting 323. GeoffreyWPB:


I am wondering...what does the leader of the Republican Party Rush Limbaugh think about this polar vortex thing? I wish there was some video.


The Polar Vortex is a HOAX!
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CHILD ABDUCTION EMERGENCY
TEXAS DIVISION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
917 PM CST TUE JAN 7 2014

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE TEXAS
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

THE BRAZORIA COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE IS SEARCHING FOR ELIZABETH
CATHERINE SMITH...WHITE...FEMALE...13 YEARS OLD...DATE OF BIRTH...
JUNE 5...2000...5 FEET...5 INCHES...200 POUNDS...BROWN HAIR...
BROWN EYES...AND WEARING A BLACK HOODIE...JEANS...GRAY SHOES...
WITH A PURPLE/BLACK BACKPACK.

POLICE ARE LOOKING FOR JOSE ANGEL PONCE...HISPANIC...MALE...
38 YEARS OLD...DATE OF BIRTH...OCTOBER 21...1975...5 FEET...
7 INCHES...165 POUNDS...BROWN HAIR...BROWN EYES...IN CONNECTION
WITH HER ABDUCTION.

THE SUSPECT IS DRIVING A BLACK...2010 CHEVROLET C1500...WITH A
TEXAS LICENSE PLATE NUMBER OF...AT22261.

THE SUSPECT WAS LAST HEARD FROM IN ALVIN TEXAS.

LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS BELIEVE THIS CHILD TO BE IN GRAVE OR
IMMEDIATE DANGER.

IF YOU HAVE ANY INFORMATION REGARDING THIS ABDUCTION, CALL THE
BRAZORIA COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE AT 979-864-2392.

$$
Hi Baha. Mainly money and political reasons. Schools have to compete for money against city building projects, like the new convention center that no one wanted.

My school has been owed $15M for the last ten years for repair...now it's going to get the money, but for expansion.
More loss in the waves battering Spain. A family was swept out while spreading ashes.
353. flsky
Quoting 298. StormTrackerScott:
Latest WRF model is showing heavy rain moving across S FL tonight. Also shows temps warming after midnight across eastern FL.


Thank goodness
>As temperatures around Toronto and across Ontario drop to -20 Celsius (-4 Fahrenheit), residents are reporting frost quakes that are powerful enough to shake houses and rattle nerves.

Usually found in extreme polar regions, the recent outbreak of frost quakes, known to meteorologists as cryoseisms, are now affecting many residents of Toronto, Canada%u2019s most populous city.

The weather-related phenomenon, which can feel like an earthquake, happens when water and moisture deep underground freeze as the temperature drops.

Frost quakes typically occur between midnight and dawn, the coldest part of the night, thus many residents are being jolted awake by the booming sounds.
Quoting 353. flsky:

Thank goodness

Still falling here. 38.1ºF. Just not looking like I'll get my clouds.
A (very rough) translation of the text in the French invasion of Russia graphic.

Presented by Mr. Minard, Paris, November 20, 1869 Inspector General of bridges and paved roads, done while on leave

Figurative chart of the march of men in the French army in the Russian campaign 1812-1813. The number of men is represented by the width of the colored zone representing 1 millimeter per 6,000 men. The figure shows those who entered Russia and those who left and returned on subsidiary (side) campaigns. The figures are based on the works of Mr. Thiers, Mr. de Segur, Mr. de Fezensac, and the journal of Mr. Jacob, pharmacist for the army from October 28 (1812)

To better visualize the reduction of the army (for reasons of simplicity) I depicted the side campaigns of Prince Jerome and Marshal Davous which went to Minsk and Mokilow as marching with the main army throughout


Graph of the temperature in degrees (Celsius) below zero according to the thermometer kept by Reaummur. (during the retreat)
The temperature here is down to 37 F and while not falling rapidly, are decreasing steadily. I could tell when I left work at just after 7 pm and it was already 40F, that it would have to get colder than forecast unless the wind suddenly shifted east and/or thick clouds moved in. The forecast discussion for our area admits that the temperature drop this evening was underestimated, due to less cloud cover than expected. It does predict, however, that the temps will bottom out around midnight, then stay steady or even rise a bit the rest of the night.

I totally buy this as this is extremely common on our coldest nights. This effect alone, in my observation, seems to keep Orlando from freezing quite often on nights when one is forecast.
Quoting 340. BaltimoreBrian:


Nashville TN set their all time record low of -17 on January 21, 1985, while SSW winds were blowing ;)



Very odd, it must have occurred after the arctic high had passed to the southeast but was too potent yet to bring any moderation from SW winds. That and the SW flow was more of a local return flow around the high rather than warm moist advection from the gulf.


Otherwise, that would seem nearly impossible lol.
Good Night Peeps - Stay Warm - Stay Safe - Dress Properly (layers)
Rest Well - The End is Near (that's a good thing)
Quoting 358. HurrMichaelOrl:
The temperature here is down to 37 F and while not falling rapidly, are decreasing steadily. I could tell when I left work at just after 7 pm and it was already 40F, that it would have to get colder than forecast unless the wind suddenly shifted east and/or thick clouds moved in. The forecast discussion for our area admits that the temperature drop this evening was underestimated, due to less cloud cover than expected. It does predict, however, that the temps will bottom out around midnight, then stay steady or even rise a bit the rest of the night.

I totally buy this as this is extremely common on our coldest nights. This effect alone, in my observation, seems to keep Orlando from freezing quite often on nights when one is forecast.



Yeah its likely that your lows will be achieved fairly early, its likely temps will begin warming slowly or hold steady after midnight.


Its a wee bit nippy here despite high clouds:

Mostly Cloudy

29°F

-2°C

Humidity41%
Wind SpeedNE 6 mph
Barometer30.53 in (1033.9 mb)
Dewpoint8°F (-13°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Wind Chill23°F (-5°C)

Last Update on 7 Jan 10:53 pm EST
Temperature outside my window has been stuck between 11 and 12 for the last 3 hours.
With nothing better to do, I've started going through Record Event Reports and am compiling a table of record lows/record low highs from this brutal cold snap. So far, I've completed Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania with 67 records tied or smashed. I'll share the word document when I'm done.
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 12:00 AM EST Wednesday 8 January 2014
Condition:Drifting Snow
Pressure:30.3 inches
Tendency:rising
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:0.7°F
Dewpoint:-6.3°F
Humidity:72%
Wind:SW 8 mph
Wind Chill: -13
Just as predicted, the temp at the nearest wunderground personal weather station bottomed out at 36.1 F just before midnight and is now rising.  Up to 36.5 and now 36.7F.  The wind is now NE.
Quoting 347. BaltimoreBrian:
No, Knoxville wasn't the coldest place. Mount Mitchell NC was -34

But Knoxville was -24 with calm to light SSW winds.


Mt. Mitchell got down to -24 last night.



0.5 here now should hold there for the night or very slow rise till sunrise
Now that LASCO data is near complete it's time for a deeper analysis on the CME from the X1.2 flare. LASCO data indicate a full halo CME with most of the ejecta headed towards the southeast of the ecliptic with a fair part of the CME Earth directed. CME speed varies a bit but there are sufficient datapoints to know that the CME had a speed of about 2000km/sec, which means we can expect an arrival tomorrow.
An exact impact time can never be given as it is one of the hardest to forecast, an impact seems plausible around 6 UTC time on january 9th with + and - 6 hours impact window and can cause moderate geomagnetic storming up to G2 level (Kp6).

More updates will follow during the day.

Due to the ongoing Space Radiation Storm the ACE data is currently unreliable and effects the solar wind speed and density measurements. This will prevent to interpret the arrival of the CME impact. Link
Not wanting to interrupt the cold fest, but it looks like we're up for some serious Heat Records in my home state.
good morning!..37 right now by my area..........
once the sun comes out,this cold snap is over here....
Good morning, Largo.


Nassau (MYNN)
Elevation
23 ft
Now
Light Rain
Temperature
68.0 °F
Feels Like 68 °F
Wind(mph)
17.3
NE

Been pretty much the same since before midnight, and it's rained for pretty much the last 24 hours. Today is supposed to be more of the same, which is rather dreary...


Quoting 371. chimera245:
Not wanting to interrupt the cold fest, but it looks like we're up for some serious Heat Records in my home state.
That's some serious heat!
No freeze again today. 40 in Orlando with moisture increasing fast right now from south to north. light rain and drizzle developing south of Tampa as we speak as well.

Quoting 373. LargoFl:
once the sun comes out,this cold snap is over here....



What cold snap? This was a bust here. No freeze anywhere to speak of. Anyways expect very heavy rain tonight & tomorrow across C FL.

Euro


Euro precip accum for the next 36 hours. impressive.
Meanwhile, down on da Bayou Grande...

22.6F and 21.6 on my two sensors this morning.
Front and back yards.
Quoting 377. StormTrackerScott:



What cold snap? This was a bust here. No freeze anywhere to speak of. Anyways expect very heavy rain tonight & tomorrow across C FL.

Euro


Euro precip accum for the next 36 hours. impressive.
WELL By me im glad no freeze,costs alot to replace all those plants,bananna tree's etc..so far i came out on top.
Quoting 374. BahaHurican:
Good morning, Largo.


Nassau (MYNN)
Elevation
23 ft
Now
Light Rain
Temperature
68.0 °F
Feels Like 68 °F
Wind(mph)
17.3
NE

Been pretty much the same since before midnight, and it's rained for pretty much the last 24 hours. Today is supposed to be more of the same, which is rather dreary...


good morning Baha
up to 38 now here...................
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 29 degrees with a 23 degree wind chill. My smoke detectors didn't go off as much last night. I was told to take out the battery for two hours and then replace it. The night before it was going off about every thirty seconds. For someone who has had a house fire, that's a nightmare and impossible to get sleep. You have no idea how much I just want to sleep.

Breakfast's on the table: cheesy grits and shrimp, regular or whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, whole wheat pancakes with fruit sauce, egg burritos with cheese and chorizo, Belgian waffles with strawberries or powdered sugar, croissants, bagels with cream cheese and strawberry jelly or lox, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
G' morning wunderland 31.5 F

The Ice Age seems well underway, totally.

: )
G'mornin Largo.

A little early for folks to be pushing buttons, don't cha think?
385. beell
Quoting 377. StormTrackerScott:



What cold snap? This was a bust here. No freeze anywhere to speak of.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
343 PM EST TUE JAN 7 2014


...TONIGHT...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS WITH LOW TEMPS OVER THE FAR INTERIOR AND WHETHER FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE REACHED ONCE AGAIN. LOW LEVEL FLOW ABOVE THE SFC IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY THE DRY AND COLD AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. IN ADDITION...INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUILDING OVER THE NORTH AND MARINE STRATOCU BUILDING ONTO THE COAST WILL HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. THIS IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THAT ARE NOT AS COLD AS EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER OVER THE FAR INTERIOR...WEAKER NORTHERLY WINDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS SHOULD LEAD TO RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD
SEE TEMPS ACROSS LAKE AND NW VOLUSIA COUNTY FALL TO THE MID 30S BY LATE EVENING AND CONTINUING TO DROP TO NEAR TO JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR THESE AREAS EVEN THOUGH IT LOOKS SLIGHTLY ON THE
MARGINAL SIDE. OVER THE REST OF THE AREA LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR TO UPPER 40S/LOW 50S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST WHERE FLOW BEGINS TO VEER MORE ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE ONTO THE TREASURE
COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THIS ONSHORE FLOW...

Wasn't that bad of a forecast was it?

Leesburg, Lake County FL 33°


Weather Extremes

2013: Australia’s Warmest Year on Record
By: Christopher C. Burt, 2:46 PM CST on January 06, 2014

As the most intense cold wave to envelop a large portion of the U.S. since 1996 unfolds, record warmth has been the story for much of the rest of the world, including California, but especially in Australia where 2013 has been determined to be the continent’s warmest calendar year on record. This year has begun with yet more records. Here are some details.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a special statement on January 3rd confirming that 2013 was the nation’s warmest year on record (since 1910) so far as annual average temperature. The average was 21.8°C (71.2°F) which surpassed the previous warmest year of 21.63°C (70.9°F) set in 2005. 2013 was 1.2°C (2.2°F) above the long-term normal.
Quoting 385. beell:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
343 PM EST TUE JAN 7 2014


...TONIGHT...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS WITH LOW TEMPS OVER THE FAR INTERIOR AND WHETHER FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE REACHED ONCE AGAIN. LOW LEVEL FLOW ABOVE THE SFC IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY THE DRY AND COLD AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. IN ADDITION...INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUILDING OVER THE NORTH AND MARINE STRATOCU BUILDING ONTO THE COAST WILL HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. THIS IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THAT ARE NOT AS COLD AS EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER OVER THE FAR INTERIOR...WEAKER NORTHERLY WINDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS SHOULD LEAD TO RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOULD
SEE TEMPS ACROSS LAKE AND NW VOLUSIA COUNTY FALL TO THE MID 30S BY LATE EVENING AND CONTINUING TO DROP TO NEAR TO JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR THESE AREAS EVEN THOUGH IT LOOKS SLIGHTLY ON THE
MARGINAL SIDE. OVER THE REST OF THE AREA LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR TO UPPER 40S/LOW 50S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST WHERE FLOW BEGINS TO VEER MORE ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE ONTO THE TREASURE
COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THIS ONSHORE FLOW...

Wasn't that bad of a forecast was it?

Leesburg, Lake County FL 33°




Last night no but Monday night yes as temps stayed up 5 to 7 degrees from forecast. Gotta laugth at some on here. Every post is a battle
Quoting 381. LargoFl:
up to 38 now here...................


We had a hard time breaking free of the clouds yesterday. In the afternoon, the sun did come out.
Currently already 48 degree at my location.

Cloud cover could keep temps down today, but any sun that comes out will warm us up quickly.
389. VR46L
Good Morning Folks!!!


Lots of Maybe in the Indian Ocean

img src="">

Actually - just starting raining lightly outside. That could definately keep temps down today if this weather continues into the afternoon.
Morning everyone, from MD. 6 Degrees here this morning with a wind chill of 1 degree. Certainly better than the -23 wind chill we had yesterday.


Ian looks better this morning.

-19 and calm here. Funny, it doesn't hit its low until 9 am. Should be -24.

The we warm through the week end we might even get above freezing. I don't like that because all the snow drips off the roofs and makes ice sheets on the parking lots.

Cheers
Qazulight
393. beell
Quoting 387. StormTrackerScott:


Last night no but Monday night yes as temps stayed up 5 to 7 degrees from forecast. Gotta laugth at some on here. Every post is a battle


Ok, Monday. It's cool. I'll go bother someone else!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1025 AM EST SUN JAN 5 2014

MONDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT MON NIGHT WITH BREEZY NW WINDS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S FAR NRN AREAS MAINLY NW OF I-4 AND INTO THE 30S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. COORD WITH TAMPA AND JAX AND WILL ISSUE A HARD FREEZE WATCH FOR INLAND VOLUSIA AND LAKE COUNTIES AND FREEZE WATCH FOR NRN BREVARD/SEMINOLE/ORANGE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES. VERY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE ALSO EXPECTED DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
TEENS FAR NORTH AND INTO THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF E CENTRAL FL DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME PASSING UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

Good morning, everyone

It's a 78 going for a high of 78 (it's finally winter here), clear kind of day over here on the island today.

For anyone who might be interested, the wee hours of 9-10 January are supposed to show some gorgeous Northern Lights. This is the site that I use but there are many others out there:

Link

Enjoy them if you get the chance!

Have a great day

Lindy
395. Xeloi
Quoting 236. Neapolitan:
We continue to hear Klimate Klowns like James "I believed in Global Warming until I learned how much it would cost to mitigate it" Inhofe cater to the naive, gullible, and willfully ignorant by blathering on and on about how the current US cold snap is 'proof' that the planet isn't warming, and that GW no longer exists.

Sigh...

I earlier posted a graph showing how, despite occasional outbreaks such as the current one, extremely cold temperatures have become increasingly rare across most of the US. Here are a couple more, courtesy of Climate Central (many cities listed near the bottom of the page) (The solid yellow lines indicate the linear trend since 1970. All graphs courtesy of Climate Central):

Neapolitan image

Neapolitan image

Neapolitan image

Bottom line: if you think it's gotten warmer where you live, you're not mistaken...


While science says that Global Warming is for real and I believe it... this plot doesn't real show andthing meaningful. Firstly, errors... when you fit a straight line, you get an error bar on the slope. This isn't shown, so we have no idea how significant the slope is. Moreover, it is REALLY hard to calculate this error bar, because the algorithms that fit straight lines are developed for Gaussian distributions of measurement errors, while for small numbers like these, we have Poisson distributions. Furthermore, values less than zero are not possible, which also skews the errors. Also... global warming predictions an INCREASE in extreme events, not a decrease -- cold snaps should be are included in that.

Maybe if we could see a map of the shift of number of sub-zero days, year-by-year, you might be able to assemble a statistically meaningful sample.

It might be more interesting to look at how the leaves are change later each year and the average snow line shifting northward.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Rain also increases near Tampa around 8am tomorrow and then spreads over orlando later in the day.



Its just light rain lol. You sure do get excited about some rain dont ya bud! It's Florida, we are surrounded by water. Pretty typical to get rain more than other places.
44 & climbing and temps are already 60 plus at the coast. Warm moist air is rapidly filling in right now.

slowly warming up, 41 now by me..........
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...EXCESSIVE COLD IMPACT...
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY
AS EASTERLY FLOW DRAWS IN WARM ATLANTIC AIR. BE SURE TO DRESS
WARMLY AND IN LAYERS THIS MORNING.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS AS WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS AND UP TO 5 FEET. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN IMPROVE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
NEAR-RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

With this jet streak overhead and warm moist air filling in at the surface and aloft it's just a matter of time before rain starts breaking out across the area. PWAT's already around 2" across the Keys and that air is spreading north.

Quoting 398. LargoFl:
slowly warming up, 41 now by me..........
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...EXCESSIVE COLD IMPACT...
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN TO MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY
AS EASTERLY FLOW DRAWS IN WARM ATLANTIC AIR. BE SURE TO DRESS
WARMLY AND IN LAYERS THIS MORNING.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS AS WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS AND UP TO 5 FEET. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN IMPROVE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
NEAR-RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$



47 here now and 63 at Cape Canaveral. That warm air is marching across the state right now. Thank Goodness!!
When I made my Winter Storm Naming System, for some reason I felt Cloe was going to be significant. And then the weather system froze most of the nation creating lows unseen for decades.

And this looks like it could possibly be Winter Storm DJ on the way really soon,

A deeper, but broad system. May produce a few inches.

We will see.
403. ARiot
Quoting 395. Xeloi:


br>
It might be more interesting to look at how the leaves are change later each year and the average snow line shifting northward.


I'm not much of a chart guy, but I do think an overlooked impact of AGW in North America (and in some other areas) is the increase of overnight temperatures throughout the year. I think that has a greater impact than we've reckoned.

I don't think leaf turning is a good measure of warming. Trees as far south as USDA zone 8 change color prior to frost. A better indication of AGW impact on trees would be to chart the beetles or to look at the migration of tree species.
Quoting 401. StormTrackerScott:


47 here now and 63 at Cape Canaveral. That warm air is marching across the state right now. Thank Goodness!!
Morning crew, I had 34 again last night IN ZEPHYRHILLS FL. not to bad.I must say STScott you were good with your forcastfor last night. The temp fell like a rock till 8 pm then rose a few degrees after that. NICE :)
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CST WED JAN 08 2014

VALID 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE/INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE REGIME WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 00Z-BASED ECMWF/UKMET/GEFS ARE IN
COMPARATIVELY BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE HANDLING OF AN INITIAL
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ON DAY 4/SATURDAY
INTO DAY 5/SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MUCH GREATER VARIABILITY EXISTS WITH
DEPICTIONS OF A SUBSEQUENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CONUS SOUTHERN TIER
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE INITIAL/PRIMARY SEVERE CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES ON DAY 4/SATURDAY...POTENTIALLY INCLUDING A GENERAL CORRIDOR
FROM AL/NORTHERN FL TO THE CAROLINAS.
WHILE AMPLE FORCING FOR
ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THE SOUTHEAST STATES UPPER
TROUGH...THE EXACT DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN/DESTABILIZATION WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR IS QUESTIONABLE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A
CATEGORI
CAL SLIGHT RISK IS PROBABLE ON DAY 4/SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDE A 30 PERCENT CALIBER SEVERE
HIGHLIGHT AT THIS TIME.

AN ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE RISK CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE GULF
COAST REGION/SOUTHEAST STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...SPECIFIC PREDICTABILITY IS LIMITED REGARDING THE
SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.
Quoting 404. severstorm:
Morning crew, I had 34 again last night IN ZEPHYRHILLS FL. not to bad.I must say STScott you were good with your forcastfor last night. The temp fell like a rock till 8 pm then rose a few degrees after that. NICE :)


Thank you! We might see some rain late today breaking out across your area and spreading this way as deep tropical air is pushing north. Very drastic air mass change underway this morning from one of Polar orgins to that of a more tropical-like airmass.
Thanks Dr. M. particularly for the Democracy now video that spells out "drunken jet" meandering.

Xeloi, isn't the graph type your are describing a time map of exactly the change in number of nights below zero that you are asking for?

Are you surprised there are no years with less than zero nights below a given temperature? Yes this is a 1 tail statistic.

P.S. so glad to be below the frost line today.
Temp just went from 47 to 51 in 25 minutes. Temp was 37 at 11:30pm last night and has been rising ever since.
Quoting 395. Xeloi:


While science says that Global Warming is for real and I believe it... this plot doesn't real show andthing meaningful. Firstly, errors... when you fit a straight line, you get an error bar on the slope. This isn't shown, so we have no idea how significant the slope is. Moreover, it is REALLY hard to calculate this error bar, because the algorithms that fit straight lines are developed for Gaussian distributions of measurement errors, while for small numbers like these, we have Poisson distributions. Furthermore, values less than zero are not possible, which also skews the errors. Also... global warming predictions an INCREASE in extreme events, not a decrease -- cold snaps should be are included in that.

Maybe if we could see a map of the shift of number of sub-zero days, year-by-year, you might be able to assemble a statistically meaningful sample.

It might be more interesting to look at how the leaves are change later each year and the average snow line shifting northward.
Folks are certainly free to disbelieve or downplay solid scientific evidence if they wish; that's the beauty of being an American. Besides, they're definitely not alone (see: "Representatives, US House of"). But as those three graphs show--along with the other 63 at the Climate Central link, plus hundreds of others elsewhere--there can be little no denying that over the past forty-plus years Americans everywhere are experiencing fewer frigid nights. Or to put it another way, the USA is warming (along with, of course, the rest of the planet). If that's not "meaningful", I'm not sure what is.

So far as error bars--and the relative value of using linear (Order 1 polynomial) trendlines to show "jaggy" non-zeroable data, and Gaussian/Poisson distributions, and smoothiness, and R2 values-, and so on-climate communicators have found over the years that including all those in simple graphics tends to muddle the message, and turn people off. Such graphics certainly exist, and they obviously tell the same story in finer, more accurate detail. But for a general public still trying to come to grips with what's really happening while being whispered constant and soothing lies by a fossil fuel industry intent on keeping things as they are, images like these are, it's been found, invaluable.

And, yes, GW theory does predict an increase in both the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. That, as any scientist--or even a casual glance at the headlines--is happening. But as the entire planet warms up, a severe cold snap such as the current US one needn't necessarily be as deep as those that happened in the past to be considered just as, if not more, severe.
Wow, first of all, they said the high yesterday was 38, and in reality, it only got as warm as 34-35 degrees here in the FL Panhandle.

And then, last night/this morning they said it would get to 23, and well, it got to 19 instead.
Wouldn't be surprised if the sun shot out another powerful X-flare today from AR1944.
Quoting 410. opal92nwf:
Wow, first of all, they said the high yesterday was 38, and in reality, it only got as warm as 34-35 degrees here in the FL Panhandle.

And then, last night/this morning they said it would get to 23, and well, it got to 19 instead.
yes my local met said yesterday it was really hard determining just how cold it would get,moisture,cloud cover,winds all play a part in how cold it would get..they were right by my area..didnt get a freeze but with the moisture this morning sure feels colder..solid cloud cover so the sun cant warm things up, hopefully it will break later today..hard to see right now how it will get into the 60's today..just walked the dogs in the park and my fingers are frozen lol..i know its colder in other states but here we are used to the 70's and 80's..so i guess we feel the cold more..no time to get used to the cold here..
A seemingly innocuous 10 day forecast

It will be a nice break, but here in North Florida, you can't rest easy from getting a freeze or even a hard freeze until probably mid-late March.
Next cold wave according to the GFS at 240 hours.
I left my nook in the commuter van overnight and the cold killed the battery. That hasn't happened to me in Florida before.

Yikes Hydrus! That is some fierce wind AND temps!
Quoting hydrus:
Next cold wave according to the GFS at 240 hours.


Looks familiar. Looks like flu season will really get going with roller coaster temps.
From the Miami NWS Disco...

SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH THAT MOVED THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO USHERING
IN THE COOLER AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH
TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND THE POTENTIAL OF
A FEW WEAK SRN STREAM IMPULSES ALOFT WITHIN THE SW FLOW PASSING
OVERHEAD WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES UP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA. MODEL PRECIPITABLE
WATER OUTPUT REFLECTS THIS TREND AND INDICATES VALUES NEARING THE 2"
MARK OVER THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST BY THE END OF THE DAY. A BLEND
OF THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE OUTPUT THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
PROBABILITIES ALONG THE EAST COAST AND ATLANTIC WATERS...THEN
TAPERING OFF WESTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS
PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES EARLY...A
FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS EMBEDDED WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS AND COASTAL
LOCATIONS. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IT IN THIS PACKAGE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
HAVE REMAINED STEADY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S (BRIEFLY)/LOWER
40S IN GLADES/INTERIOR AREAS TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE EAST
COAST/METRO AREAS. AS THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH TODAY...THE
PERSISTENT OFFSHORE/DRAINAGE FLOW ALONG THE EAST COAST IS
PROJECTED TO SHIFT ONSHORE...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE WARMER AIR OFF
THE ADJACENT GULF STREAM WATERS TO SPREAD ASHORE. A BLEND OF THE
LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS HAS AFTERNOON HIGHS RETURNING TO THE LOWER
70S ALONG EAST COAST TODAY. HOWEVER...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD AND RAIN COVERAGE ANTICIPATED AND THE RECENT POOR
MODEL PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WE WILL SLIGHTLY
UNDERCUT THIS BY A FEW DEGREES WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN PALM BEACH
COUNTY REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW THE 70 DEG MARK THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION NORTH OF OUR LOCAL AREA AND THE
BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LIFT NORTHWARD. A COMBINATION OF
RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND WEAK SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
TRANSLATE TO TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO AROUND 15 DEG WARMER THAN
AVERAGE EACH NIGHT.
42 here now..............
Quoting 411. CybrTeddy:
Wouldn't be surprised if the sun shot out another powerful X-flare today from AR1944.
how strong today is the question maybe x4 today
Quoting 417. Thunderfan:


Looks familiar. Looks like flu season will really get going with roller coaster temps.
roller coaster temps ya I say 48 if the forecasted high for sat with rain holds
some people in those zero temps might warm up tomorrow..
Tampa Nws.............HARD FREEZE AND FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED...

.TEMPERATURES ARE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY RISE EARLY THIS MORNING AND
MOST PLACES ARE NOW ABOVE FREEZING.

FLZ139-142-239-242-081315-
/O.EXP.KTBW.HZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-140108T1200Z/
COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL CITRUS-INLAND LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDAR KEY...YANKEETOWN...
CRYSTAL RIVER...HOMOSASSA...CHIEFLAND...BRONSON...WILLISTO N...
INVERNESS
711 AM EST WED JAN 8 2014

...HARD FREEZE WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THIS MORNING CLIMBING INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 THIS AFTERNOON.

$$
Got you Flu Shot Yet??...................................BREVARD COUNTY --
Brevard health officials are urging residents to get a flu shot. A recent spike in cases has them concerned a possible outbreak could be on the horizon.

Friday we learned of some serious cases on the Space Coast. Leaders are worried this could become a repeat of 2009. That's when tens of millions of people were infected during a flu pandemic.
Quoting 417. Thunderfan:


Looks familiar. Looks like flu season will really get going with roller coaster temps.
Pneumonia, colds, respiratory infections, and possibly some severe weather..
Quoting 427. hydrus:
Pneumonia, colds, respiratory infections, and possibly some severe weather..


hr 69 of the 12z nam looks interesting

now that the bitter cold is ending we begin the focus on the next features


Quoting 395. Xeloi:


While science says that Global Warming is for real and I believe it... this plot doesn't real show andthing meaningful. Firstly, errors... when you fit a straight line, you get an error bar on the slope. This isn't shown, so we have no idea how significant the slope is. Moreover, it is REALLY hard to calculate this error bar, because the algorithms that fit straight lines are developed for Gaussian distributions of measurement errors, while for small numbers like these, we have Poisson distributions. Furthermore, values less than zero are not possible, which also skews the errors. Also... global warming predictions an INCREASE in extreme events, not a decrease -- cold snaps should be are included in that.

Maybe if we could see a map of the shift of number of sub-zero days, year-by-year, you might be able to assemble a statistically meaningful sample.

It might be more interesting to look at how the leaves are change later each year and the average snow line shifting northward.


So charts are posted showing that we are having fewer frigid nights since 1070 in Detroit, Minneapolis and St. Louis. REALLY! Since 1970? And we because of that we say scream global warming. How old is the earth. I don't know, maybe billions of years old. That sample of time is so irrelevant it is irresponsible to post.
Quoting 428. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


hr 69 of the 12z nam looks interesting

now that the bitter cold is ending we begin the focus on the next features


A large portion of the North American Continent is in for a rough winter..
Quoting hydrus:
A large portion of the North American Continent is in for a rough winter..


Sigh, I ain't got all the sleds running yet. I actually broke out the snoblower, haven't used in a couple of years(i normally like to shovel snow)
Quoting 431. luvtogolf:


So charts are posted showing that we are having fewer frigid nights since 1070 in Detroit, Minneapolis and St. Louis. REALLY! Since 1970? And we because of that we say scream global warming. How old is the earth. I don't know, maybe billions of years old. That sample of time is so irrelevant it is irresponsible to post.
so what will it take how large an event do you require for you to even consider climate change is behind it

ya want 200 mm of rain in an hr 100 cm of snow in 6 hrs

5 ef5 tornadoes on the ground at the same time

hail the size of small melons to fall on a city the size of dallas

whats it to take maybe 60 percent melt out of Greenland would be best that way it will really get the message out

I like the Greenland choice myself if its going to change us that will without a doubt do it
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
so what will it take how large an event do you require for you to even consider climate change is behind it

ya want 200 mm of rain in an hr 100 cm of snow in 6 hrs

5 ef5 tornadoes on the ground at the same time

hail the size of small melons to fall on a city the size of dallas

whats it to take maybe 60 percent melt out of Greenland would be best that way it will really get the message out

I like the Greenland choice myself if its going to change us that will without a doubt do it


100 cm of snow? Is that a lot? Never good with metric system. Maybe 100 cm of snow in Cuba would do it for me.
I took the windspeed and temp data from a nearby weather station and plotted out wind chill values since Sunday, far northern Wisconsin:



I typo-ed the year on graph's title. 2014 still seems strange to write and type!
Quoting 431. luvtogolf:


So charts are posted showing that we are having fewer frigid nights since 1070 in Detroit, Minneapolis and St. Louis. REALLY! Since 1970? And we because of that we say scream global warming. How old is the earth. I don't know, maybe billions of years old. That sample of time is so irrelevant it is irresponsible to post.
I don't see anyone screaming. I simply see a large set of charts showing warming across the US, and many others showing warming around the globe. Thus, "global warming". You can debate, if you wish, about the reasons why it's happening, and you can debate about just how bad it will get. But there's no credible debating that it's happening; to do so would be the very definition of "irresponsible".
Space Weather Message Code: WATA50
Serial Number: 48
Issue Time: 2014 Jan 08 1214 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G3 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Jan 08: None (Below G1) Jan 09: G3 (Strong) Jan 10: G3 (Strong)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.
Quoting 433. TroutMadness:


Sigh, I ain't got all the sleds running yet. I actually broke out the snoblower, haven't used in a couple of years(i normally like to shovel snow)
Tennessee has had 3 mild winters in a row. 2010 did have a couple of snow events. Two of those winters were so mild, long time residents a typical autumn season has more winter weather. I am from Florida, and I am learning how difficult winter can be.
And one wrong word from Dennis Rodman could get many innocent people killed....Not the brightest bulb on the tree. He needs to come home and stay
Quoting hydrus:
Tennessee has had 3 mild winters in a row. 2010 did have a couple of snow events. Two of those winters were so mild, long time residents a typical autumn season has more winter weather. I am from Florida, and I am learning how difficult winter can be.


I'm in the Detroit Metro Area(Downriver) and will be moving to our place in Grayling in Northern Michigan this year. Winters have been mild in southern Michigan too, I haven't ice fished down here in a while.. last winter was one of the best snowmobiling seasons in the Grayling area in years tho.
The wife's Dad is from Clarkesville, Tn
Quoting 435. Thunderfan:


100 cm of snow? Is that a lot? Never good with metric system. Maybe 100 cm of snow in Cuba would do it for me.
it would be if it all fell in 6 hrs
Quoting 440. PalmBeachWeather:
And one wrong word from Dennis Rodman could get many innocent people killed....Not the brightest bulb on the tree. He needs to come home and stay
I never found Rodman to be intelligent, and if he is, he is a strange one.
Quoting 440. PalmBeachWeather:
And one wrong word from Dennis Rodman could get many innocent people killed....Not the brightest bulb on the tree. He needs to come home and stay


I think they should keep him...

445. VR46L
Quoting 440. PalmBeachWeather:
And one wrong word from Dennis Rodman could get many innocent people killed....Not the brightest bulb on the tree. He needs to come home and stay


I don't understand what the **** he is doing there !

That country leader is clearly a megalomaniac, did you hear what he did to his uncle ?

I don't think any right minded person is comfortable with the North Korea issue !

Absolutely beautiful day here saw the Golden disc all day !But a cooler air is around today !
Quoting 441. TroutMadness:


I'm in the Detroit Metro Area(Downriver) and will be moving to our place in Grayling in Northern Michigan this year. Winters have been mild in southern Michigan too, I haven't ice fished down here in a while.. last winter was one of the best snowmobiling seasons in the Grayling area in years tho.
The wife's Dad is from Clarkesville, Tn
I have been on the Detroit River many times while working as a merchant marine during the early and mid 80,s. It is rough in some areas to say the least, while across the river in Windsor seems clean and tranquil...go figure..:)
Quoting 442. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
it would be if it all fell in 6 hrs
10 inch per hr snowfall rate

I've never seen or heard of that amount nor no one else

be a quick 5+
feet of snow
Quoting 444. indianrivguy:


I think they should keep him...

We said the same thing over breakfast this morning..
Quoting 443. hydrus:
I never found Rodman to be intelligent, and if he is, he is a strange one.
Now he may put a life in danger.
Quoting 445. VR46L:


I don't understand what the **** he is doing there !

That country leader is clearly a megalomaniac, did you hear what he did to his uncle ?

I don't think any right minded person is comfortable with the North Korea issue !

Absolutely beautiful day here saw the Golden disc all day !But a cooler air is around today !
I heard about all of the hungry dogs VR... It hasn't been proven yet
Quoting hydrus:
I have been on the Detroit River many times while working as a merchant marine during the early and mid 80,s. It is rough in some areas to say the least, while across the river in Windsor seems clean and tranquil...go figure..:)


lol you have gone by me many times then (Zug Island)
12z gfs just coming out...
438. Luisport 10:24 AM EST on January 08, 2014
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.


Fascinating; I guess I will know that we are really trouble if I start to see Auroras in the skies over Florida..................
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 452. TroutMadness:


lol you have gone by me many times then (Zug Island)
Yep. Have fueled up near there, and always saw ya on the radars..:)
Quoting 411. CybrTeddy:
Wouldn't be surprised if the sun shot out another powerful X-flare today from AR1944.


Happened last night. BIG one -- seven times the size of earth. NASA says Northern lights may be as far south as Colorado in a day or so!

"Solar astronomers have been keeping an eye on giant sunspot AR1944, and as it turned towards Earth today, the sunspot erupted with a powerful X1.2-class flare. NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center said the flare sparked a “strong radio blackout” today, and they have issued a 24 hour “moderate” magnetic storm watch indicating a coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the flare may be heading towards Earth."

Read more: http://www.universetoday.com/107864/monster-sunspo t-erupts-with-an-x-class-flare/#ixzz2pqfwJruw