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A Quiet But Deadly 2013 U.S. Fire Season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:00 PM GMT on December 23, 2013

It was an unexpectedly quiet and deadly year for wildfires in the U.S. in 2013. The 4.2 million acres burned ranked as the 2nd lowest amount in the past ten years, according to the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC.) The total number of wildfires was just over 43,100, which was well below the ten-year average of about 68,000 fires, and the lowest number since accurate record keeping began in the early 1980s. According to meteorologist Steve Bowen of Aon Benfield in an interview with USA Today, total wildfire economic damages during the year were approximately $700 million, or 46% below the 10-year average of $1.3 billion. However, 2013 was the third deadliest wildfire season for firefighters since records began in 1910, with 34 firefighters perishing.





The deadly Yarnell Hill, Arizona fire
On June 30, 2013, the third deadliest wildfire in U.S. history, Arizona's Yarnell Hill Fire, took the lives of 19 firefighters with the Prescott Fire Department's interagency Granite Mountain Hotshots. Close watch was on the weather during the fire, as temperatures hit 100° and winds gusted over 20 mph. However, a line of thunderstorms caused winds to increase and shift, gusting to over 40 mph, and changing direction from west-southwest to north-northeast. This rapid change in the winds caught the firefighters off guard, allowing the fire to quickly grow from 300 acres to 2,000 acres. It was this wind event with persistent hot temperatures and dry surface conditions that caused the erratic wildfire behavior and killed the 19 out of 20 Hotshots crew.


Video 1. The June 30, 2013 Yarnell Hill Fire in Arizona as seen from the air.


Figure 1. The Yarnell Hill Fire was the third deadliest wildfire in U.S. history. Image credit: ecowest.org.

Didn't they say something about a record-breaking fire year? What happened?!
During the winter of 2012 and 2013, the nation was in the worst drought conditions since 2000 due to below normal snow pack across the West, according to the US Drought Monitor. The snowfall maps below show the percent of average snow pack over the Four Corners and Great Basin, respectively, measured April 1st, 2013 by the NRCS.





The chart below shows percent of drought conditions across the Contiguous U.S, with Exceptional Drought in dark red, Extreme Drought in red, Severe Drought in orange, Moderate Drought in tan, and Abnormally Dry in yellow.



As you can see from this chart, we started off 2013 at nearly the driest conditions across the U.S. since 2000, with nearly 80% of the country abnormally dry and over 6% in exceptional drought conditions. Due to the dry conditions, fire management agencies were expecting an exceptionally active fire season, since dry conditions in 2011 and 2012 caused historic fire years. (For example, the massive Wallow Fire in 2011 burned 538,000 acres in AZ and NM; the Whitewater-Baldy fire in 2012 was the largest single fire in New Mexico's history, at 297,845 acres; and the devastating 2012 Waldo Canyon Fire in Colorado was the most destructive fire in state history, with 346 homes burned.)

So what happened? During the summer of 2013, the Southwest benefited from a much wetter and more active monsoon season than in previous two years, which led to one of their wettest summers on record. For example, Colorado and the Four Corners reported record to near record wet conditions from July - November. Additionally, an active weather pattern across the Southeast U.S. brought near record wet conditions to Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas. Traditionally, these two regions account for a large percentage of the annual acreage burned for the US. As you can see from the the NOAA statewide rank anomaly map below, for July - November, California was one of the few states that was dry during the peak part of fire season. This was a result of the quasi-stationary ridge of high pressure over the East Pacific for the majority of the year.



To a certain degree, luck was a significant component this year, as a major weather event like the 2008 Lighting Bust or the 2007 Santa Ana wind event simply did not occur in 2013. The Rim Fire, which burned into Yosemite National Park and ended up being the third largest wildfire in California history, was caused by a hunter's illegal campfire. The fire eventually consumed over a quarter million acres, and shows what the potential of the 2013 California wildfire season could have been if weather played a greater role.

Have a great Christmas, everyone, and I'll be back on Friday with a new post.

Jeff Masters, with major help from wunderground's fire weather expert, Kari Strenfel

Fire Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

One of my all time favorites....Turn The Page" Bob Seger
1002. Dakster
Quoting 1001. PalmBeachWeather:
One of my all time favorites....Turn The Page" Bob Seger


I like the Metallica version too.
I've done so little yet I feel like I've done so much...

How does this page appear to those who don't have an 1376x768 screen? Are the columns compressed to the point of looking awful? I've added a References column and a Damage total so readers know what tornado caused how much.
1004. Dakster
1280 x 1024 here and with Chrome it looks fine. It also looks OK in IE, but the page runs slow in IE.

I have a dual monitor setup.
Quoting 1003. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I've done so little yet I feel like I've done so much...

How does this page appear to those who don't have an 1376x768 screen? Are the columns compressed to the point of looking awful? I've added a References column and a Damage total so readers know what tornado caused how much.

Everything looks readable and neat to me, but I have a 22" LCD TV as my computer screen so that probably doesn't help you too much.
Quoting 1003. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I've done so little yet I feel like I've done so much...

How does this page appear to those who don't have an 1376x768 screen? Are the columns compressed to the point of looking awful? I've added a References column and a Damage total so readers know what tornado caused how much.


Well, I have 1376x768 screen but it does look wide.
Quoting 1004. Dakster:
1280 x 1024 here and with Chrome it looks fine. It also looks OK in IE, but the page runs slow in IE.

I have a dual monitor setup.

Yikes. The page will be over double its current size. IE users might have an issue with the page, but I can't do anything about it. Thanks.

Quoting 1005. wxchaser97:

Everything looks readable and neat to me, but I have a 22" LCD TV as my computer screen so that probably doesn't help you too much.

Quoting 1006. Bluestorm5:


Well, I have 1376x768 screen but it does look wide.

It's supposed to fill the width of the screen, so no issue there. Thanks Kyle/Isaac.
Yes ! Some snow on Tues and Wed.
I just want to let y'all know my sweet dog will be okay! He had not been tested positive for any life threatening diseases so that's good to hear! He just might have Cushing's Disease which is treatable if positive.

Quoting 1007. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yikes. The page will be over double its current size. IE users might have an issue with the page, but I can't do anything about it. Thanks.



It's supposed to fill the width of the screen, so no issue there. Thanks Kyle/Isaac.


Yeah, I'm not having any problems.

1010. txjac
I just want to let y'all know my sweet dog will be okay! He had not been tested positive for any life threatening diseases so that's good to hear! He just might have Cushing's Disease which is treatable if positive.


Blue that is truly good news. Give your baby lots of hugs. I had a kittie that developed diabetes. Had to give him insulin shots twice a day ...but he lived to be 18 years.
Quoting 953. washingtonian115:
It is 42 degrees outside.I went to CVS and brought me a ice creme cookie sandwich.I got weird stares but I don't care :).It was good.
Sorry for my ignorance but what is CVS? Is a store that only sells cones?
Quoting 881. barbamz:


Yes. Next year high pressure systems will get male names, and lows female names (changes every year). At least if there is someone who choses to buy the name "Erich" for the high(s) with the letter "E".
Thanks a lot :D.
Quoting 869. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Oh I didn't know that, well I should have added Kwanza for some African Countries. It just seems like every other country around the world is celebrating some kind of holiday after Christmas, but the US. It kind of sucks though if you think about it because it is back to work for some over here.
I beg to differ because in Honduras we don`t do nothing in the 26,its just a normal day to us.The majority stays at their homes the ones who have vacation and the others go to work.
Quoting 1000. PalmBeachWeather:
Turn the page lull


It's a dirty job but someone has to do it.

thank you for helping out....
Quoting 1003. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I've done so little yet I feel like I've done so much...

How does this page appear to those who don't have an 1376x768 screen? Are the columns compressed to the point of looking awful? I've added a References column and a Damage total so readers know what tornado caused how much.


looks OK @1280/768 on a 19" WS Firefox
CVS is like Thrifty or Rite-Aid or Walgreens.
Quoting 1001. PalmBeachWeather:
One of my all time favorites....Turn The Page" Bob Seger


Mine too!
Quoting 998. washingtonian115:
Those cicadas were horrible.I don't grow fruit.But I do grow flowers.The cicadas ruined my garden that year as well.When I herd they were come back this year I kinda had a panic because 2012 was un-friendly with the constant heat and dryness.Luckly the cicadas were hardly none and this spring and summer were wet.


They'll be back in 2021
Quoting 994. PedleyCA:


Just so happens I have some leftover Prime Rib from the party last night. I will savor some of it on your behalf.


It is a family joke that in our house beef is contraband, smuggled in when my wife is away. Kids appreciate it
Quoting 975. washingtonian115:
The link I posted in the post from CWG said that Chicken Alaska will be getting down to -58 degrees.I'm surprised the population hasn't tripled in Alaska.Their really isn't much to do on cold nights like those.People down here sure take advantage.


How about feeding the woodstove, chopping wood, splitting wood and otherwise maintaining heat in the house? This keeps me busier during cold spells
Quoting 1019. georgevandenberghe:


How about feeding the woodstove, chopping wood, splitting wood and otherwise maintaining heat in the house? This keeps me busier during cold spells


Been there, done that....
Totally irrelevant to the weather, but check this out.

On this day in 1919, Red Sox sold George H. Ruth's contract to the Yankees. You may know him as "Babe."

The Curse of the Bambino was born.

25,000 dollars back then would be worth approximately 336,000 USD.



You can calculate the inflation index right here. Link
Quoting 834. StAugustineFL:


The St Johns River in FL flows north and empties into the ATL east of downtown Jacksonville.


The three major rivers that drain Siberia all flow North.
Quoting 1015. PedleyCA:
CVS is like Thrifty or Rite-Aid or Walgreens.
Don't forget Eckerd. Which was headquartered right here in Largo, FL. :D
The Upper Peninsula has had quite a bit of snow this year...here is the link for the snowfort I built for the kids a couple days ago.
Quoting 1017. georgevandenberghe:


They'll be back in 2021
Ick! What about those Japanese beetles that eat your roses and other flowering plants.
1026. Patrap
There are more Tanning salons in Fla. than all Drug Store Chains combined.

: )

Crazy, no?

On the local news, I slipped a disc again in the Lower back, so typing prone is a challenge no doubt.
What will it be Mr. Groundhog? Groundhog Groundhog what do you see ? Groundhog Groundhog please tell me.
Quoting 1025. Climate175:
Ick! What about those Japanese beetles that eat your roses and other flowering plants.


Every year in late June and July. Their grubs also destroy lawns.
Quoting 1021. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Totally irrelevant to the weather, but check this out.

On this day in 1919, Red Sox sold George H. Ruth's contract to the Yankees. You may know him as "Babe."

The Curse of the Bambino was born.

25,000 dollars back then would be worth approximately 336,000 USD.



You can calculate the inflation index right here. Link


And I was there when "The Curse of the Bambino" ended. I was at Game 4 of 2004 World Series, where I saw Red Sox celebrating the Series over my Cardinals.
Quoting 1010. txjac:
I just want to let y'all know my sweet dog will be okay! He had not been tested positive for any life threatening diseases so that's good to hear! He just might have Cushing's Disease which is treatable if positive.


Blue that is truly good news. Give your baby lots of hugs. I had a kittie that developed diabetes. Had to give him insulin shots twice a day ...but he lived to be 18 years.


Thank you so much, sir :) I will make sure he's close to me for now and on whenever I get home from college. He's almost 12 now, but he is still pretty active except for last few weeks.
1031. txjac
Quoting 1030. Bluestorm5:


Thank you so much, sir :) I will make sure he's close to me for now and on whenever I get home from college. He's almost 12 now, but he is still pretty active except for last few weeks.


Blue ....

Gotta question for you ...how many men do you know that call their animals baby? And tell another person to hug them? I'm 100% female. lol
Quoting 1031. txjac:


Blue ....

Gotta question for you ...how many men do you know that call their animals baby? And tell another person to hug them? I'm 100% female. lol
Not many, lol. I'm still pretty emotional attached to him, though! I spent all morning crying because he was so sick (he barely made it overnight) until the good news started to come in once he got tested and treated.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #4
TROPICAL LOW 04U
9:10 AM WST December 27 2013
==========================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Low (999 hPa) located at 13.8S 122.3E or 295 km north northwest of Cape Leveque and 465 km north of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving southwest at 3 knots parallel to the coast.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS

A tropical low lies well to the north of Broome and is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone on Saturday. The system is expected to move southwest roughly parallel to the coast in the next few days.

Gales with gusts to 100 km/h may develop on the coast between Kuri Bay and Broome during Saturday and then extend further southwest to De Grey by Sunday morning.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS 14.3S 121.6E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 14.9S 120.9E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 16.2S 119.3E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS 18.2S 117.6E - 70 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
======================

Convection has increased somewhat overnight but it still lacks organization. Dvorak analysis of FT/CI=2.0 is at the upper end of what convection indicates and is biased towards MET, as DT=1.5 based on a weak 0.3 curved band. NESDIS ADT is analyzing unrealistically higher T numbers of 3.4. The center location has been indistinct overnight, and the latest analysis has shifted the location further to the east than previous policy influenced by Browse Island observations being easterly and the first visible images of the day.

The steering is likely to be towards the southwest influenced by a persisting mid-level ridge to the south. This will take it sufficiently close to the northwest Kimberley coast to suggest coastal gales are possible on Saturday. Thereafter the system will track over open waters until it approaches the Pilbara coast on Monday.

The environment is conducive to development: strong upper level outflow both poleward and equatorward, high SST above 31C, and the shear, although having been moderate easterly is now likely to reduce. Model guidance suggests a broad, monsoonal like, structure in the development phase, which is consistent with its gradual development phase currently. Once the system reaches cyclone intensity the radius of maximum winds is likely to contract and a faster development rate is then forecast.

All guidance suggest a large gale area on the eastern flank, greater than the climatological norm. This may be significant when storm surge and wind impacts are considered later in the system life cycle.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
====================================
A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal areas from Kuri Bay to Broome

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for the coastal areas from Broome to De Grey

The Cyclone WATCH from Troughton Island to Kuri Bay has been cancelled
Quoting 1003. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I've done so little yet I feel like I've done so much...

How does this page appear to those who don't have an 1376x768 screen? Are the columns compressed to the point of looking awful? I've added a References column and a Damage total so readers know what tornado caused how much.
Looks great to me. I have to page across to read any given line, but that's because I like res on this small laptop screen at 800x600(stretched). Works for me.
1035. Dakster
Quoting 1023. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Don't forget Eckerd. Which was headquartered right here in Largo, FL. :D


Wow. Haven't heard or seen an Eckerd Drugs in a long time. I thought it went the way of Pantry Pride.
1036. Dakster
Quoting 1026. Patrap:
There are more Tanning salons in Fla. than all Drug Store Chains combined.

: )

Crazy, no?

On the local news, I slipped a disc again in the Lower back, so typing prone is a challenge no doubt.


Ouch Patrap... Feel better. Is this going to require surgery?
North Carolina snow fans got some hope for the next 10 days. New Year Eve look like there's something worth watching. 18z GFS is suggesting 1-2 inches for NC (increasing each run) while 12z Euro is little farther north into Virginia and less snow. It'll be cool to see flurries to light coating for me to end a great year of 2013 :) January 3/4 could be a decent to major East Coast snowstorm from NC/SC border all the way to New England as result of cold blast. The odds look like it's in winter lovers' favor the next 8-9 days, but it is a long range model still. We'll see.

Here's 18z GFS:

1038. pottery
Greetings and belated Happy Christmas to all.

Just returned from Tobago, where floating in the warm sea, lounging on beach-chairs, eating, drinking and making Merry were the Orders of the days……

Had an incredible lightening storm early on Christmas morning over Tobago.
Torrential rains killed 18 people in StVincent, StLucia and Dominica islands on Christmas eve night/Christmas morning.
Not sure if this was posted before.

Sad stuff there.

1039. pottery
Quoting Patrap:
There are more Tanning salons in Fla. than all Drug Store Chains combined.

: )

Crazy, no?

On the local news, I slipped a disc again in the Lower back, so typing prone is a challenge no doubt.

BAH !

Thats a dread way to spend Christmas…….

Keep strong !
Quoting 1004. Dakster:
1280 x 1024 here and with Chrome it looks fine. It also looks OK in IE, but the page runs slow in IE.

I have a dual monitor setup.


I once thought that I had a dual monitor set up. It turned out to be double vision.
1041. Dakster
Quoting 1040. Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I once thought that I had a dual monitor set up. It turned out to be double vision.


LOL.. In that case, I really have quad monitors. I will probably do that one day...
Quoting 1035. Dakster:


Wow. Haven't heard or seen an Eckerd Drugs in a long time. I thought it went the way of Pantry Pride.
They went defunct in 2007. For some reason I love the word defunct even though it has bad meaning.
1043. Patrap
Quoting 1036. Dakster:


Ouch Patrap... Feel better. Is this going to require surgery?


The VA wants to do that as the injury is a old one from my USMC days in Norway during a NATO Winter Training Exercise that Grothar was in as well.

But I'll be fine as it takes a few days of heat and ice and the bulging disc returns to position.

Been almost a year since it did this. If not, the VA will send me to Tulane for imaging.

Thanx Dak'
Quoting 1026. Patrap:
There are more Tanning salons in Fla. than all Drug Store Chains combined.

: )

Crazy, no?

On the local news, I slipped a disc again in the Lower back, so typing prone is a challenge no doubt.
Sounds crazy to me. I'm surrounded by nursing homes and assistant living facilities. However, Florida's coastline is primarily made up of beaches and tourism is the # 1 industry, so it makes sense.
Quoting 1003. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I've done so little yet I feel like I've done so much...

How does this page appear to those who don't have an 1376x768 screen? Are the columns compressed to the point of looking awful? I've added a References column and a Damage total so readers know what tornado caused how much.

Looks great in 1360x768.
1048. LemieT
Quoting 1038. pottery:
Greetings and belated Happy Christmas to all.

Just returned from Tobago, where floating in the warm sea, lounging on beach-chairs, eating, drinking and making Merry were the Orders of the days……

Had an incredible lightening storm early on Christmas morning over Tobago.
Torrential rains killed 18 people in StVincent, StLucia and Dominica islands on Christmas eve night/Christmas morning.
Not sure if this was posted before.

Sad stuff there.



I contacted a few of my friends in these islands. Bad scenes. One of my friends in St. Vincent reported hail in the north of the island. It doesn't take a named storm to ruin everyone's day. It's been wet here in Barbados for the last 3 days, but nothing like the other islands.
Quoting 1043. Patrap:


The VA wants to do that as the injury is a old one from my USMC days in Norway during a NATO Winter Training Exercise that Grothar was in as well.

But I'll be fine as it takes a few days of heat and ice and the bulging disc returns to position.

Been almost a year since it did this. If not, the VA will send me to Tulane for imaging.

Thanx Dak'
Get well soon. That sounds like a really bad injury. I know the older you get the longer it takes those things to heal and you probably get constant pains. Hopefully, it will stay in position and not require surgery, but if does good luck with it.
1050. Dakster
Quoting 1043. Patrap:


The VA wants to do that as the injury is a old one from my USMC days in Norway during a NATO Winter Training Exercise that Grothar was in as well.

But I'll be fine as it takes a few days of heat and ice and the bulging disc returns to position.

Been almost a year since it did this. If not, the VA will send me to Tulane for imaging.

Thanx Dak'


Personally, I would do everything I could to avoid surgery. But that is just me. The least number of times someone else is inside you the better - and unfortunately, I have had a few "invasions" already as well.

Now when the pain is so bad you can't stand it, then it's time to give the surgery a try.
Somebody really is messing with us here ... Who took our snow... NC, DC/Baltimore is waiting for a real good snowstorm. Ugh now i am about to go bonkers and explode with posts of snowmageddon... lol
Yes Yes Yes...
1054. VR46L
Quoting 1053. Climate175:
Yes Yes Yes...


When Harry Met Sally?


:)
Quoting 1053. Climate175:
Yes Yes Yes...

Calm. You want it as much as I do. But posting about it all the time does not help. :p I like the effort though. Try making up a new snow dance. I have been trying one but it hasn't been working so time for a new one :)
1057. VR46L
Wish the wind would stop howling! Could be wors I suppose Check out the Scottish Highlands

Might as well get in on the act. You know I wish it would just snow everywhere in the US all at one time. :D

Quoting 1058. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Might as well get in on the act. You know I wish it would just snow everywhere in the US all at one time. :D

LOL
Quoting 1053. Climate175:
Yes Yes Yes...
Oh that's what Daniel Bryan said. :P
Lets hope the 2014 hurricane season is not pathetic.
1062. beell
South Texas Snow, Christmas Day, 2004.



Quoting 1060. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Oh that's what Daniel Bryan said. :P
LOL hmm
Quoting 1061. Climate175:
Lets hope the 2014 hurricane season is not pathetic.
Uh Oh get ready for some mix reactions to this post. It will come around again. I'm interested to see what kind of activity if any we will see in the GOM. Major Hurricanes are becoming quite rare there recently, but you know what I don't really mind.
1065. pcola57
NVM
1066. Dakster
Quoting 1055. Doppler22:

Calm. You want it as much as I do. But posting about it all the time does not help. :p I like the effort though. Try making up a new snow dance. I have been trying one but it hasn't been working so time for a new one :)


What are we talking about?
Why everybody do the snow dance! :)
This one was boss! Notice the time of the year too.

1069. beell
Quoting 1065. pcola57:


Hey beell..
Looks like Cuero,Goliad,Victoria got in the action in 2004..
Interesting..


It was! Kinda get spoiled by these one-in-a-hundred year snows. We think every deep digging trough will produce the same.

Waiting. lol.
This video shows what the 2013 hurricane season would have looked like if it was active by using models. Take a look. Link
Then again, I think this one was the biggest and the baddest of them all with blizzard conditions felt all the way down into the peninsula of FL.

Quoting 1070. Climate175:
This video shows what the 2013 hurricane season would have looked like if it was active by using models. Take a look. Link
LOL I remember this, it goes all the way up to Wendy, with Wendy being a Cat 5 taking a track like the 1932 Cuba Hurricane.
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
This one was boss! Notice the time of the year too.



I heard this storm with accumulating snow caused more panic for Mobile, AL than an approaching hurricane in the Gulf!
Quoting 1072. GTstormChaserCaleb:
LOL I remember this, it goes all the way up to Wendy, with Wendy being a Cat 5 taking a track like the 1933 Cuba Hurricane.
LOL i was laughing my pants off.
Quoting 1057. VR46L:
Wish the wind would stop howling! Could be wors I suppose Check out the Scottish Highlands



There's been a bunch of 80mph+ gusts across parts of Wales too, including a 109mph gust at 12am at Aberdaron. Link

Quoting 1075. Envoirment:


There's been a bunch of 80mph+ gusts across parts of Wales too, including a 109mph gust at 12am at Aberdaron. Link




Why is wales using imperial units?
1077. flsky
Quoting 1026. Patrap:
There are more Tanning salons in Fla. than all Drug Store Chains combined.

: )

Crazy, no?

On the local news, I slipped a disc again in the Lower back, so typing prone is a challenge no doubt.

Gotta stop doing those sneaux dances....
I saw a meteorologist in Charlotte pointing out faulty readings at Charlotte-Douglas International Airport once again tonight. He also pointed out a blog post back in 2011 as well.

http://wxbrad.com/charlotte-douglass-odd-temperat ure-readings/

Pretty impressive that he investigated this issue and gave his readers a detailed idea what he think is occurring with ASOS at Charlotte-Douglas. As a data nerd, there's nothing I hate more than the data having faulty results.
People move aboard a makeshift boat in a flooded street, in Vila Velha, state of Epirito Santo, Brazil, on Dec. 26, 2013. At least 44 people have died and more than 60,000 have been left homeless following torrential rain in southeast Brazil over the past few weeks, officials said Thursday. (Xinhua/Alex Gouvea/FUTURA PRESS/AGENCIA ESTADO)
1080. Dakster
Gonna be a shame if NPS gets its way and airboats (actually all mechanical propulsion, including bicycles) are banned in the everglades.

Link

http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/12/27/3838829/ico nic-airboats-wont-be-part-of.html

--

I was a little worried it was all over the state.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #6
TROPICAL LOW 04U
2:59 PM WST December 27 2013
==========================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Low (997 hPa) located at 14.1S 122.0E or 430 km north of Broome and 780 km north northeast of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving southwest at 4 knots parallel to the coast.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24 HRS

A tropical low, located to the north of Broome, is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone on Saturday as it moves southwest roughly parallel to the coast.

Gales with gusts to 100 km/hr may develop on the Kimberley coast between Kuri Bay and Broome during Saturday and then extend further southwest to De Grey by Sunday morning. Heavy rain is expected on Saturday in coastal areas of the Kimberley north of Broome.

As the system begins to approach the coast later on Sunday, gales are expected to develop further west to Port Hedland and then to Mardie including Karratha overnight or Monday morning. The system should steadily intensify before reaching the coast.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS 14.6S 121.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 15.3S 120.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 16.7S 119.0E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS 19.0S 117.4E - 75 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
======================
Recent scatterometry indicates a broad elongated trough-like circulation so the center position is based on the location most likely to become defined in the next 12 hours. Browse Island observations also suggests the trough has slipped a bit further south since the OSCAT pass. Development is likewise being constrained by convection being strung out along the trough line.

Dvorak analysis of FT/CI of 2.0 is at the upper end of what convection indicates and is biased towards MET, as DT=1.5 based on a weak 0.3 curved band. NESDIS ADT is analyzing unrealistically higher T numbers of 3.4. The strongest winds are likely to be in the southeast quadrant coincident with the convection. The steering is likely to be towards the southwest influenced by a persisting mid-level ridge to the south. This will take it sufficiently close to the northwest Kimberley coast to suggest coastal gales are possible on Saturday. Thereafter the system will track over open waters until it approaches the Pilbara coast on Monday.

The environment is conducive to development: strong upper level outflow both poleward and equatorward, high SST above 31C, and the shear, although having been moderate easterly is now likely to reduce. Although the system is only slowly developing currently it may intensity at a more standard rate once it reaches cyclone intensity.

All guidance suggest a large gale area on the eastern flank, greater than the climatological norm. This may be significant when storm surge and wind impacts are considered later in the system life cycle.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
====================================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Kuri Bay to Broome.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for the coastal areas from Broome to Mardie, including Port Hedland and Karratha
1082. pcola57
Quoting 1079. Skyepony:
People move aboard a makeshift boat in a flooded street, in Vila Velha, state of Epirito Santo, Brazil, on Dec. 26, 2013. At least 44 people have died and more than 60,000 have been left homeless following torrential rain in southeast Brazil over the past few weeks, officials said Thursday. (Xinhua/Alex Gouvea/FUTURA PRESS/AGENCIA ESTADO)


Thanks for that Skye..
Disheartening..
I wonder why RSOE EDIS doesn't update like it should..??

Link
1083. barbamz
Good morning and hello with "some" (*cough*) snow in the Alps:




24h snow accumulation in Madesimo, at the border of Italy to Switzerland, Alps.

1084. barbamz

"Erich" north of Ireland.


Source.


Streamlines 10m GFS for 00z (= some hours ago).


Storms return to batter the UK as Met Office warnings put in place
BBC News, 7 December 2013 Last updated at 09:25 GMT

Gales and rain have returned to the UK, causing further disruption to transport and the power network.

There are currently around 14-15,000 homes without power in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, the Energy Networks Association said.

The Met Office has issued an amber "be prepared" warning of gusts up to 80mph in north Wales and northern England.

More than 75 flood warnings have been issued in England, Wales and Scotland, with rain falling on saturated ground.

Rail services have been disrupted, while road closures have been reported around the UK because of uprooted trees.

The Met Office's Emma Sharples says conditions have already cleared eastwards through southern England, with concern focussed on northern parts of Wales, north-west England and north-east England and moving into the Borders of Scotland.

"We will see gusts of around 80 mph particularly in coastal areas, inland probably gusts of 50 to 60 mph, with some quite squally conditions too as showers pass through," she said. ...


Whole article see link above.


Webcam Pembrokeshire, Abermawr Beach (pic is updating every minute), Wales.

BBC weather video from this morning.
1085. VR46L
Good Morning Folks



Greetings and belated Happy Christmas to allJust returned from Tobago, where floating in the warm sea, lounging on beach-chairs, eating, drinking and making Merry were the Orders of the days Had an incredible lightening storm early on Christmas morning over Tobago Torrential rains killed 18 people in StVincent, StLucia and Dominica islandson Christmas eve night/Christmas morning Not sure if this was posted before Sad stuff there


Can anyone give me a layman's explanation as to what really caused this horrific storm in the islands? I am in Grenada and could not believe the intensity of lightning and thunder. Have spent the past 40 years on this island and, aside from IVAN, have never experienced anything close to this. It raged for over 4 hours non-stop. My bed shook several times as the thunder rumbled overhead and the lightning made it look like daylight. They say Grenada was at the bottom end of the storm and that we did not receive the full force. Unfortunately the people of St. Vincent, St Lucia and Dominica were not so fortunate. Numerous dead and lots of damage. This was not a normal thunderstorm so just looking for an explanation. Thanks.
1087. LargoFl
Good Morning...................
1088. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY ON THE OUTER WATERS FROM
ENGLEWOOD TO SUWANNEE RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE FOR WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KNOTS.

...DENSE FOG IMPACT...
AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY
DENSE WITH VISIBILITY OF LESS THAN ONE MILE. MOTORISTS ARE URGED
TO DRIVE WITH CAUTION TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO SATURDAY AND TRACK OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG...MAINLY OVER THE NATURE
COAST...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED WITH WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS
AND BUILDING SEAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

OGLESBY
1089. VR46L
Last nights highest gusts in my country



Edit ~ source Irish weather News
Quoting 1076. VAbeachhurricanes:



Why is wales using imperial units?

Because England, Wales and Scotland still measure speed in mph...whereas Ireland, (Eire), who are part of the European group, measure in km/h.
Not too bad now, here in central UK, but had a trip to North Yorkshire booked for today...cancelled, as the wind up there is supposed to gust up to 80-90mph!

If the storm predicted for Monday is as bad as the two that have already crossed the UK, that will make three 100 mph storms in eight days!

Give us a break, do!!

1092. VR46L
Quoting 1091. sandiquiz:
Not too bad now, here in central UK, but had a trip to North Yorkshire booked for today...cancelled, as the wind up there is supposed to gust up to 80-90mph!

If the storm predicted for Monday is as bad as the two that have already crossed the UK, that will make three 100 mph storms in eight days!

Give us a break, do!!



Supposed to be near me on Sunday night , Monday Morning ... At the moment I would be grateful for a frosty week with no wind , these storms are getting old quickly !

I think my problem is that I was spoilt this past summer early autumn with great weather and cant take the usual winter weather as it seems so much worse !
G'morning from Central OK,

Wow. Across the pond you guys are getting a pretty good blow. Hold on to you hats (and anything else not tied down).

Caribboy got more than he wished for in the Antilles, with an outcome that no one really wanted.

Here, chilly and clear. Ice-free at last (pretty much), with decent weather expected for the next few days.

Will wish everyone a happy New Year, as my break is over after today.

Cheers, stay safe and warm, and celebrate responsibly!

Cheers.
Quoting 1090. sandiquiz:

Because England, Wales and Scotland still measure speed in mph...whereas Ireland, (Eire), who are part of the European group, measure in km/h.


Though use celcius instead of farenheit, and use both cm and inches usually...it's a bit of a mismash :P

Def a bit of a mess in N Wales. i think all these repeated wind storms and saturating rains, are finally wearing down trees and poles etc. We've had plenty storms, but seems the biggest mess with this one round here. I had to leave my car at job #2 last night and get a lift from a co-workers lift, as a gigantoid tree came down, uprooted across their long driveway. We all had to climb up, over and around it to get to the main road. Luckily they keep some very big flashlights onhand! Only live 5 min drive away, but saw many uprooted ones this time round, usually just see branches.

Anyway, need to think about getting over there to see if they've managed to find a place with equipment big enough to move it on such short notice. Dunno what to do after, but my boss at job #1 doesn't want me to even try coming in even if I get my car out. But managers on at night shift might not agree LOL So will see. Don't mind it off, as am full of cold and just want some UK equiv of Nytol and my blankie! LOL Oh, and both sides of garden fences taken down now, the fixed side ended up not holding through it LOL No power outage here though. Were a few flashes at work last night, but managed to stay on and my daughter said she didn't even have any flashes, so will be happy for the power to hold!
So, pretty harsh, but still nowhere near as harsh as a lot of storms elsewhere! Will get back to you if we get an ice storm or 4 feet of snow or proper floods LOL But part of why I like it here, even severe weather isn't usually 'that' severe incomparison to a lot of places! Cheers all
hope 2014 hurricane is pathetic sorry doomsdayers but 1992 and 2004 were enough. as for the everglades. not so sure its such a bad idea. the navigational channels have a caddyshack feel to them. we have no engine designated water areas here in the southern mosquito lagoon and its surprising how fast the life came back in these areas. the same could happen in the everglades.. good luck in 2014
Bring on the rain. Only .03 for the month at my location.
Thursday's rain never materialized. Next chance is Sunday. I've got my fingers crossed.
7 Day for Fort Myers
Anyone else having computer issues this morning? My computer is acting weird this morning.
Follow the Rabbit Neo.
Quoting 1097. Sfloridacat5:
Bring on the rain. Only .03 for the month at my location.
Thursday's rain never materialized. Next chance is Sunday. I've got my fingers crossed.
7 Day for Fort Myers


Looking like FL has finally entered a stormy pattern now as the southern jet looks rather strong over the coming weeks. Hopefully this pans out as this semi permanent Sub Tropical Ridge seems to be finally breaking down.

Quoting 1096. barbamz:

Location Whitehaven.


That' my kind of weather. Love to watch waves smashing against stuff. Even when I was younger I would always want to go watch the waves whenever there was a storm. Probably why I ended up becoming a surfer and loving the Ocean.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Anyone else having computer issues this morning? My computer is acting weird this morning.
Follow the Rabbit Neo.


No, but my watch is slow about one minute per week...
Quoting 1099. StormTrackerScott:


Looking like FL has finally entered a stormy pattern now as the southern jet looks rather strong over the coming weeks. Hopefully this pans out as this semi permanent Sub Tropical Ridge seems to be finally breaking down.



Love to see it. Just seems like we've got a rain shield around my location. The last time we had rain/storms coming in from the Northwest they just went around us.
Need some rain coming in from the S.W., that will get us.
All of the GEFS ensembles agree that FL is heading for a very wet pattern!

Quoting 1102. Sfloridacat5:


Love to see it. Just seems like we've got a rain shield around my location. The last time we had rain/storms coming in from the Northwest they just went around us.
Need some rain coming in from the S.W., that will get us.


C & S FL not just you. The problem has been this Sub Tropical High which has been stubborn on not breaking down. Cross your fingers though as it looks like a pattern change is setting up across the SE US toward a more stormy and cooler pattern.

Quoting 1101. Thunderfan:


No, but my watch is slow about one minute per week...


Just becareful of any 'deja vu' moments. That's when they are making changes to the Matrix.
Quoting 1102. Sfloridacat5:


Love to see it. Just seems like we've got a rain shield around my location. The last time we had rain/storms coming in from the Northwest they just went around us.
Need some rain coming in from the S.W., that will get us.


Rain chance is up to 70 percent on Sunday in Orlando!
Quoting 1103. StormTrackerScott:
All of the GEFS ensembles agree that FL is heading for a very wet pattern!


Scott. You should be in your glory coming up. I am so JEALOUS. Look at all that moisture!!!

Good morning from the rolling wooded hills in Southern Illinois. Another beautiful start here. Highs will sour in the mid-40's. The farming season is just weeks away. Getting excited!!! :)

Natalie

Quoting 1106. StormTrackerScott:


Rain chance is up to 70 percent on Sunday in Orlando!


Sunday's the day. 60% chance here. Then Sunday night rain isn't even in the forecast.
Here comes a cold front at 159 hrs. Looks like things could get stormy.

6z interesting at hr 162

1112. LargoFl
come on rain..you can do it..come to papa lol.....
1113. LargoFl
1114. LargoFl
folks from Tampa northward,stay alert sat-sunday..could be some strong storms..
sys in gulf lifting up and out over the next 36 hrs or so




Quoting 1108. RainDanceGirl:
Good morning from the rolling wooded hills in Southern Illinois. Another beautiful start here. Highs will sour in the mid-40's. The farming season is just weeks away. Getting excited!!!



Yeah but below zero temps are on the way for you so take cover up there as bitter cold air is coming south.



Quoting 1110. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Here comes a cold front at 159 hrs. Looks like things could get stormy.



That's the strongest squall line I've seen so far this season on the GFS coming across the Gulf right toward FL.

This is what I hope doesn't happen. But this has been the case with a lot of systems. But NWS definately thinks its going to rain Sunday with 60% chance. But we had a 50% chance of rain Thursday (in the forecast earlier in the week) and it never materialized.
NAM has the rain breaking up over S.Fl.
Quoting 1118. Sfloridacat5:
This is what I hope doesn't happen. But this has been the case with a lot of systems. But NWS definately thinks its going to rain Sunday with 60% chance. But we had a 50% chance of rain Thursday (in the forecast earlier in the week) and it never materialized.
NAM has the rain breaking up over S.Fl.


We can thank this stubborn ridge but again hopefully this pattern is changing for a more cooler and wetter one as it has been one heck of a hot December here in C & S FL. Water temps at Melbourne were 71 on Tuesday when I was there and that is very unusual for late December.
Quoting 1116. StormTrackerScott:


Yeah but below zero temps are on the way for you so take cover up there as bitter cold air is coming south.




KILLER map!! That is SO neat. I am ready. Plenty of Oak and Chestnut firewood to burn to keep my warm and snuggly. :) Plus let's get the cold out of the way now so planting season comes a couple weeks early!!

Natalie/RainDanceGirl
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
758 AM EST FRI DEC 27 2013

AMZ630-651-671-FLZ071>074-172>174-271500-
BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-INLAND BROWARD-
METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
758 AM EST FRI DEC 27 2013

.NOW...
THROUGH 10 AM...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ALONG AND AROUND A BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM MIAMI BEACH EAST NORTHEAST TO WELL OVER 40 MILES
OFFSHORE. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO AFFECT COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF
NORTHEAST MIAMI DADE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAIN CONCERN BEING
BRIEF DOWNPOURS. THERE IS ALSO A CONCERN FOR ISOLATED WATERSPOUTSACROSS THE ADJACENT WATERS OF MIAMI DADE AND BISCAYNE BAY.

Quoting 1019. georgevandenberghe:


How about feeding the woodstove, chopping wood, splitting wood and otherwise maintaining heat in the house? This keeps me busier during cold spells
You obviously fail at getting the damn joke.And just like that models go back to all rain on January 4...
Link
1123. LargoFl
GFS has slacked off on a big rain event for Tampa area..rain moves out in just a few hours :(
nam 30hr 12z sim rad

1125. LargoFl
1126. LargoFl
gulf low will be a very fast mover..72 hours its up in Maine already..wow
1127. LargoFl
1128. LargoFl
Hope the temps in the midlantic states are above freezing monday..
1129. LargoFl
1130. LargoFl
Another nice beach day on Fort Myers Beach.
NAM 57 hours rain north and central Fl.
nam 18 z to hr 60

First planting act of the new season is to start my tomatoes a day or two after Christmas. Normal time is late Feb for early May setting out but my basement is cold and the cats and dogs prowl the surfaces upstairs. I'll also be ready if there is another March warm spell like 2012.

I'm not paying much attention to precip forecasts a week out unless there is several model run consistency. But yeah, hoping for more snow than past few pathetic winters in DC.
NAM 72 hours - thin line of rain/storms moving through Southern Fl.
Quoting 1134. georgevandenberghe:
First planting act of the new season is to start my tomatoes a day or two after Christmas. Normal time is late Feb for early May setting out but my basement is cold and the cats and dogs prowl the surfaces upstairs. I'll also be ready if there is another March warm spell like 2012.

I'm not paying much attention to precip forecasts a week out unless there is several model run consistency. But yeah, hoping for more snow than past few pathetic winters in DC.

Sounds exciting, George. And did I mention I am a bit jealous you can get that early of a start? :) Hopefully there is no Black Walnut trees near your tomato patch. They produce the toxic substance called juglone that kills them. I garden as well, but keep the walnuts, pecans, chestnuts, and hickories far along the parameter of the land thousands of feet away from the tomatoes. Then I know they are safe. Haha.

Nat
1137. hydrus
1138. hydrus
Quoting 1131. Sfloridacat5:
Another nice beach day on Fort Myers Beach.
That pier looked a lot different in the 1970,s. The one before that one was wooden. I cannot remember which storm destroyed it.
1139. hydrus
Quoting 1138. hydrus:
That pier looked a lot different in the 1970,s. The one before that one was wooden. I cannot remember which storm destroyed it.

Wow. Take me there!!
Quoting 1115. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
sys in gulf lifting up and out over the next 36 hrs or so




First the warm front, then the cold front, with a potential squall line accompanying the cold front.
Quoting 1143. GeorgiaStormz:

Looks like a double shot for you. The other one a week ago and now this one coming up!

Nat
snow for MS/LA?
1146. hydrus
Quoting 1140. RainDanceGirl:

Wow. Take me there!!
The entire west coast of Florida has a lot to offer. I grew up on the barrier islands of S.W.Florida.
Quoting 1146. hydrus:
The entire west coast of Florida has a lot to offer. I grew up on the barrier islands of S.W.Florida.

You must have some incredible memories!! The white sandy beaches are to die for!! Going to Marco Island in a few weeks become the field/forest season gets going here in the Heartland. I'll try to snap some pics!! :)
Our chance of snow is gone...
It turned into a weak excuse for a severe weather threat



Basically a boring rain.
Quoting 1148. GeorgiaStormz:
Our chance of snow is gone...
It turned into a weak excuse for a severe weather threat



Basically a boring rain.

One man's bore is another woman's excitement. I know you want your storms, but I am actually the opposite. I HATE big winds. A gentle rain is just fine and dandy. lol
1150. hydrus
1151. ricderr
a nice and tropical 23 degrees this morning....cold...crisp...and not a cloud in the sky....high again of around 52....typical wintertime in the high desert...
Quoting 1147. RainDanceGirl:

You must have some incredible memories!! The white sandy beaches are to die for!! Going to Marco Island in a few weeks become the field/forest season gets going. I try to snap some pics!! :)


A pic to get you ready. A chair is waiting for you.
1153. hydrus
Quoting 1147. RainDanceGirl:

You must have some incredible memories!! The white sandy beaches are to die for!! Going to Marco Island in a few weeks become the field/forest season gets going here in the Heartland. I'll try to snap some pics!! :)
Marco is alright. Goodland is the place to go if ya party...Goodland is just inland from Marco.
Quoting 1152. Sfloridacat5:


A pic to get you ready. A chair is waiting for you.

Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh :)
1155. hydrus
Quoting 1152. Sfloridacat5:


A pic to get you ready. A chair is waiting for you.
We would go to the Lanai Kai right after it was built " it was a present for his wife " and Times Square was completely different. Anyone that was there in the 60,s and 70,s would not recognize the place. We lived out there for a stint when the swing bridge was still there.:)
Quoting 1153. hydrus:
Marco is alright. Goodland is the place to go if ya party...Goodland is just inland from Marco.

Totally. Not only gonna sit in my chair with my toes in the sand but will wanna have FUN too!! Going to look that one up. Thanks Hydrus!

Now this song is in my head because of this topic. haha!!

Toes by Zac Brown Band
Quoting 1153. hydrus:
Marco is alright. Goodland is the place to go if ya party...Goodland is just inland from Marco.


I spent some Christmas holidays on Fort Myers Beach with my parents in the late 70s and early 80s. I remember one time calling a friend in PA and reminding him how many thickness lines there were between his location and mine. Its a relaxing place and except for the Christmas freeze in 1983, the weather is usually pretty nice in winter but I don't have to tell you that.

But (and sometimes I ask WHY!!) I do prefer a four season climate including winter.
Quoting 1149. RainDanceGirl:

One man's bore is another woman's excitement. I know you want your storms, but I am actually the opposite. I HATE big winds. A gentle rain is just fine and dandy. lol


in 1980 When I was 22 and working at MDL in Silver Spring a big line of summer thunderstorms approached one eveningand I found it interesting and exciting. A boss and mentor told me
"George when you have a home and family, your attitude towards severe weather's gonna change"
He was right!
Quoting 1158. georgevandenberghe:


in 1980 When I was 22 and working at MDL in Silver Spring a big line of summer thunderstorms approached one eveningand I found it interesting and exciting. A boss and mentor told me
"George when you have a home and family, your attitude towards severe weather's gonna change"
He was right!

SO TRUE!!
1160. hydrus
Quoting 1157. georgevandenberghe:


I spent some Christmas holidays on Fort Myers Beach with my parents in the late 70s and early 80s. I remember one time calling a friend in PA and reminding him how many thickness lines there were between his location and mine. Its a relaxing place and except for the Christmas freeze in 1983, the weather is usually pretty nice in winter but I don't have to tell you that.

But (and sometimes I ask WHY!!) I do prefer a four season climate including winter.
We may have met, who knows. The Freezes of the early and mid 80,s were brutal. I was on Captiva then, and lived on an old Chris*Craft. The water on the bay was much warmer than the air, so we did not have low temps like the inland areas. The frost was on the pilings tho...a very rare event..:)
I like this. It would probably get me a snow day on Thursday as I'm about the only school district in the area that goes back on the 2nd instead of the 6th.
Good morning,

It's an 85, feeling like 92, with a few clouds kind of day around here.

Nice to see you back, Natalie!

Hope all is well with everyone.

Lindy
Quoting 1161. wxchaser97:
I like this. It would probably get me a snow day on Thursday as I'm about the only school district in the area that goes back on the 2nd instead of the 6th.
Sigh
Quoting 1162. VirginIslandsVisitor:
Good morning,

It's an 85, feeling like 92, with a few clouds kind of day around here.

Nice to see you back, Natalie!

Hope all is well with everyone.

Lindy

Thanks Lindy!! :) Nice to see you too! Hope you had a great Christmas! 85 degrees...oh man. And here I thought my weather was lovely. haha.
AHHHHHH! We are under a curse !
Quoting 1161. wxchaser97:
I like this. It would probably get me a snow day on Thursday as I'm about the only school district in the area that goes back on the 2nd instead of the 6th.



lucky.
Quoting 1164. RainDanceGirl:

Thanks Lindy!! :) Nice to see you too! Hope you had a great Christmas! 85 degrees...oh man. And here I thought my weather was lovely. haha.


Christmas on the island, was forecasted to be a rainy, miserable day but turned out to be absolutely beautiful. Spent the day on the beach, along with 18,000 tourists off six ships, and a great bunch of friends. Hung paper snowflakes in the palm trees around us. That got a few giggles from the tourists! ;-)
1168. LargoFl
real light rain here now,just enough to slightly wet the street but any rain is good rain here..just read my county is under stage 2 water restrictions..
1169. LargoFl
1170. LargoFl
cool overcast dreary day here...............
1171. Patrap
We dint get many Cali Fire posts and such in this entry seems.

We should see Dr. Masters pop up a new entry anytime now.

1172. ricderr
cali?...is that in florida? :-)
1173. Patrap
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
823 am CST Friday Dec 27 2013



Sounding discussion...

Most recent sounding shows slightly more moisture with a precipitable water of 0.59in.
Moisture mainly contained above 15kft. Temperature profile similar
to previous sounding but warmer from from h800 to h680. Winds north
from the surface to 6700ft then SW flow peaking over 50kt above
24000ft. Freezing level is 11619ft.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 405 am CST Friday Dec 27 2013/

Short term...
current synopsis shows upper level trough swinging across the
northeastern Continental U.S. And an area of low pressure cutoff over West
Texas near the Permian Basin. The County Warning Area is caught between these
features with surface ridge to the north thats keeping northern flow
in place. This in combination with increasing cloud cover will keep
cooler temperatures in place again today with highs around 60 despite a
slight increase in 500mb heights.

An upper level trough will be quickly diving south across the
northern rockies on Saturday. This will cause the cutoff low
currently west of the area to start moving east-northeast across Texas and
Arkansas. A surface low will develop over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico and race northeastward ahead of the trough with the center
passing across coastal waters Saturday afternoon
. The combination of
falling heights and pressure drop from the low will promote
widespread shower development. Latest model runs indicate high
coverage across the area... especially the southeastern half of the
County Warning Area as the surface low tracks across the north-central Gulf. Have
increased probability of precipitation into the 70-90 percent range for Saturday afternoon
and evening as run to run consistency continues to be good. The
system will be moving at a steady rate with 12-24 hours of impact.
Overall rainfall totals look to be around 1 to 2 inches with
possibly higher amounts along the coast. Temperatures on Saturday
will not moderate too much with extensive rain coverage...so have
kept highs in the lower to middle 50s.
1174. Patrap
Naw, not many Fla posters here ric.

: P
The GFS model is just flip flopping i still think we will get some good snow soon.
Quoting 1170. LargoFl:
cool overcast dreary day here...............


Still lots of liquid sunshine down here. 76 degrees and clear. Looking for a high of 84.
HERE WE GO AGAIN!!
There we go.
Good morning all. I hope everyone had a nice Christmas. Cheers and glasses raised wishing y'all a great 2014.
Quoting 1179. Climate175:
There we go.

I approve :p
Quoting 1181. Doppler22:

I approve :p
I want you and me to get some good snow at the same time lol
All local weatherman and women say there is a chance of snow showers Jan 2. I believe we will get it first week of Jan still.
1184. LargoFl
Quoting 1176. Sfloridacat5:


Still lots of liquid sunshine down here. 76 degrees and clear. Looking for a high of 84.
we are getting light rain now..we sure need this soaking in kinda rain...
1185. LargoFl
looks like the light rain will be sticking around here for awhile..
1186. LargoFl
1187. LargoFl
looks like the showers are going north of Orlando so far....
1188. LargoFl
1189. LargoFl
not much going on in south florida just yet.........
1190. ricderr
http://radar.weather.gov/Legend/N0R/EPZ_N0R_Legen d_0.gif
Quoting 1183. Climate175:
All local weatherman and women say there is a chance of snow showers Jan 2. I believe we will get it first week of Jan still.
I still don't have hope for anything.I highly doubt that snow amounts to much anyways besides what we've been getting in the D.C/Baltimore area so far this winter.Just skip to spring this winter is hopeless.
1192. Patrap
The wu radars work a lot better here as one can zoom, animate, or use a lot of "Modes".

Quoting 1191. washingtonian115:
I still don't have hope for anything.I highly doubt that snow amounts to much anyways besides what we've been getting in the D.C/Baltimore area so far this winter.Just skip to spring this winter is hopeless.
Let me rephrase that, Im Done, I guess Spring has won.
1194. ricderr
The wu radars work a lot better here as one can zoom, animate, or use a lot of "Modes".



i like mine...posts the edges but nothing else....that way one can make up their own weather
1195. ncstorm
from facebook Wxrisk.com


***ALERT ** in this DIFFICULT weather pattern ** IGNORE ALL the operational Models and ONLY use the ENSEMBLE means past PAST DAY

AFTER SUNDAY RAINS... AFTER ... ON JAN 1-2 at least a few inches of snow VERY possible over a good portion of NC all of VA ... yes even into Hampton Roads ... all of Richmond Metro area into Charlottesville up to DC and yes into northern neck and Lower MD eastern shore

WHAT AM I LOOKING AT ?

There are 3 maps. The FIRST map is the European Model ENSEMBLE mean -- an average of 51 verizons of the european Model. Right now the " regular " euro does NOT show this snow but the ensemble does. Since it is 6 days away the % is VERY HIGH that 51 model mean is going to be far more accurate than 1 Model. ( for those of you that have trouble with math google it ... 51 is much bigger number than 1 ... really ) . The SECOND map shows snow fall from European Model ensemble. Its a few inches. NOT big deal. but something... The THIRD map is the 6Z GFS precip for JAN 2... and it shows 0.25 to 0.50" ... which would be something like 2-4 or 3-6"... Notice the dark Blue over far eastern NC and over Va Beach ... that shows precip up to 0.75" which could be SIGNIFICANT snow for that area

Quoting 1195. ncstorm:
from facebook Wxrisk.com


***ALERT ** in this DIFFICULT weather pattern ** IGNORE ALL the operational Models and ONLY use the ENSEMBLE means past PAST DAY

AFTER SUNDAY RAINS... AFTER ... ON JAN 1-2 at least a few inches of snow VERY possible over a good portion of NC all of VA ... yes even into Hampton Roads ... all of Richmond Metro area into Charlottesville up to DC and yes into northern neck and Lower MD eastern shore

WHAT AM I LOOKING AT ?

There are 3 maps. The FIRST map is the European Model ENSEMBLE mean -- an average of 51 verizons of the european Model. Right now the " regular " euro does NOT show this snow but the ensemble does. Since it is 6 days away the % is VERY HIGH that 51 model mean is going to be far more accurate than 1 Model. ( for those of you that have trouble with math google it ... 51 is much bigger number than 1 ... really ) . The SECOND map shows snow fall from European Model ensemble. Its a few inches. NOT big deal. but something... The THIRD map is the 6Z GFS precip for JAN 2... and it shows 0.25 to 0.50" ... which would be something like 2-4 or 3-6"... Notice the dark Blue over far eastern NC and over Va Beach ... that shows precip up to 0.75" which could be SIGNIFICANT snow for that area

PARTY !!!!!
1197. LargoFl
scotts area may get some rain later this afternoon..
7 day GFS precip accum. I sure hope this pans out.



1199. ricderr
12,523 still without power in Maine after severe weather -
1200. ricderr
57,750 still without power in Michigan after severe weather
1201. ricderr
Nearly 10,000 homes in western France without power as rain and wind return
1202. ricderr
Around 70,000 without power in Ireland after 'worst storm in many years,' state-owned electricity company says
1203. Patrap
Typhoon Haiyan, one month later
By Johnny Simon, Clare Kim and Olivia Kestin



Filipino groom Earvin Nierva, left, lifts the leg of his bride Riza as they pose for their wedding pictures beside damaged homes and a ship that was washed ashore when Typhoon Haiyan hit Tacloban city, central Philippines on Dec. 7, 2013.
Aaron Favila/AP
1204. txjac
The Russian spacewalk is being streamed on Fox News if anyone is interested. They are repairing telemetry cables on this walk. Totally different perspective then the one I watched the other day.
Quoting 1191. washingtonian115:
I still don't have hope for anything.I highly doubt that snow amounts to much anyways besides what we've been getting in the D.C/Baltimore area so far this winter.Just skip to spring this winter is hopeless.


not even a week into Wwinter and you are folding....
1206. LargoFl
Quoting 1202. ricderr:
Around 70,000 without power in Ireland after 'worst storm in many years,' state-owned electricity company says
yes they were getting 80mph winds wow..hurricane force winds
1207. txjac
Quoting 1205. PedleyCA:


not even a week into Wwinter and you are folding....


LOL ...Washi will never fold ..
1208. LargoFl
TornadoTitans posted a picture of the Luther-Carney tornado on May 19, 2013. This was before the Shawnee tornado. The one that Reed Timmer and Jim Cantore intercepted live. TornadoTitans said the motion on this tornado was more insane than any other tornado they'd ever seen, and it would've been rated as a very violent tornado if it hit structures. In the NCDC database, it will go down as an EF-3.

May was a crazy time.

1210. Patrap
Published on Sep 12, 2012

A musical investigation into the causes and effects of global climate change and our opportunities to use science to offset it. Featuring Bill Nye, David Attenborough, Richard Alley and Isaac Asimov. "Our Biggest Challenge" is the 16th episode of the Symphony of Science series by melodysheep.

Quoting 1200. ricderr:
57,750 still without power in Michigan after severe weather
32,000 here
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1213. ARiot
Quoting 1196. Climate175:
PARTY !!!!!


I'll call it 4-6 in Harford County Maryland.

Put my dollar on that.

Not a party though for us.

Just shovel the driveway.

I'm hoping for 12" on a workay in our winter of 14.
Lol this is interesting. The nam keeps showing a surprise system for VA , DC/Baltimore.
1215. pingon