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A Spectacular Tropical Storm-Like Meso-Low Over Lake Superior

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:46 PM GMT on December 16, 2013

A small-scale "meso-low" formed in the cold Arctic air flowing over the relatively warm waters of Lake Superior on Sunday, and had a remarkably spectacular tropical storm-like appearance on radar and satellite imagery. As the meso-low moved south over Michigan's Upper Peninsula, it brought sustained winds of 20 - 25 mph and bands of moderate snow that dumped 4 - 7 inches of snow across the region. The snow was dry and fluffy, with a ration of 25:1 between the depth of the snow and depth of the equivalent melted water (a 10:1 ratio is more common in major snowstorms.) The winds in Marquette, Michigan increased from 10 mph to 23 mph with gusts to 32 mph as the meso-low moved over at 4 pm. In nearby Munising, the pressure increased from 1005 mb to 1015 mb in four hours after the low moved through. As documented in a 1984 paper by Dr. Greg Forbes, "Mesoscale Vorticies over the Great Lakes in Wintertime", these type of lows are not uncommon over the Great Lakes in wintertime, with an average of three appearing each winter. They arise in response to the difference in heating between the land and the lake when there is a strong contrast in temperature, and do not occur when the lakes are ice-covered.


Figure 1. From the NWS Marquette Facebook page: "In this image a meso-low can be seen (shown in the blue circle), which is a smaller scale low pressure system that commonly forms on the Great Lake during the winter time. This is primarily what has been responsible for the strong gusty winds and heavy snow bands that have been pushing into areas along the Marquette and Alger county shorelines. The system even has sort of an awesome eye near the center of rotation. This image was take around 1:30 pm EST."


Figure 2. Radar image of the meso-low after it moved ashore over Michigan's Upper Peninsula.


Figure 3. The pressure trace (2nd graph) from Munising, Michigan showed a sharp rise in pressure from 1005 mb to 1015 mb in four hours after a meso-low moved through.

Links
A radar loop of the meso-low as it approached land. Thanks go to wunderground member StAugustineFL for saving this radar loop.

The University of Wisconsin CIMSS Satellite Blog has an in-depth discussion of the meso-low.

Jeff Masters

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

A Super Duper Low..
Thanks, Jeff Masters.


Is it possible that something could ever form in a small body of water like that?
wont stay cool for very long here...........
The system even has sort of an awesome eye near the center of rotation.



nice visual example there.....now we'll be scanning wintertime imagery in hopes of finding another
I was watching that meso yesterday afternoon and was able to snag a radar loop of it on approach.

Quoting 3. Torito:
Thanks, Jeff Masters.


Is it possible that something could ever form in a small body of water like that?


"Hurricane Huron"

Some debate over whether or not this was a non-tropical low, which is what I'm leaning towards it being, but it was still a strange occurrence.
Quoting 7. CybrTeddy:


"Hurricane Huron"

Some debate over whether or not this was a non-tropical low, which is what I'm leaning towards it being, but it was still a strange occurrence.


Thanks for this! It sure did look impressive on radar.

Thank you Dr. Masters
We should dubb the lil Fella, "Me-So-Low"


Thanks Dr.  If memory serves me correct, you have pointed out a few of these to us in recent years.  That and the "lake effect" as to snow issues makes the Great Lakes a unique geographic region weather wise during the Winter months.
largo fl us in south fla are waiting the big cold front dec 28
Quoting 12. eddye:
largo fl us in south fla are waiting the big cold front dec 28
yep
Thanks Doc
You can kinda see a similar swirl right now over Lake Michigan. Link
From Yesterdays CMISS Blog


Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 11 h
Wednesday Warm seclusion extratropical cyclone -- chevron shaped extreme winds > 100 knots along bent-back warm front Link


Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 11 h
Heavy duty explosive cyclone comes close to British Isles Wed & Thursday -- 950 mb then drops to 943 mb. Ireland potential major wind event


Quoting 12. eddye:
largo fl us in south fla are waiting the big cold front dec 28
yes christmas week might get interesting eddye..
palm beach weather look at the latest gfs
Quoting 17. Luisport:

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 11 h
Wednesday Warm seclusion extratropical cyclone -- chevron shaped extreme winds > 100 knots along bent-back warm front Link


Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 11 h
Heavy duty explosive cyclone comes close to British Isles Wed & Thursday -- 950 mb then drops to 943 mb. Ireland potential major wind event




I am so tired of the stormy weather ,



I will be as grumpy as CarribBoy
Quoting 20. VR46L:


I am so tired of the stormy weather ,



I will be as grumpy as CarribBoy
yeah one storm after another by you gee
Quoting 20. VR46L:


I am so tired of the stormy weather ,



I will be as grumpy as CarribBoy
AccuWeather.com ‏@breakingweather 1 h
At least 5 storm systems will impact the United Kingdom and Ireland through Christmas: Link

Quoting 20. VR46L:


I am so tired of the stormy weather ,



I will be as grumpy as CarribBoy



Send it two me we can use the. Stormy weather




Sent from iPad air
Quoting 20. VR46L:


I am so tired of the stormy weather ,



I will be as grumpy as CarribBoy
And a list of others VR....LOL
Quoting 21. LargoFl:
yeah one storm after another by you gee


Ah its nothing to get worried about , just have to be more careful . Just gets depressing ,go to bed and the wind is howling get up its the same story
Quoting 24. Tazmanian:



Send it two me we can use the. Stormy weather




Sent from iPad air


Your Welcome to them ...

Quoting 23. Luisport:
AccuWeather.com ‏@breakingweather 1 h
At least 5 storm systems will impact the United Kingdom and Ireland through Christmas: Link




Yeah , Last night Ryan Maue was asking for people to count the amount on Twitter ... Storm after Storm



Quoting 25. PalmBeachWeather:
And a list of others VR....LOL


LMAO!!!!!!!
Thanks Jeff...
Quoting 12. eddye:
largo fl us in south fla are waiting the big cold front dec 28


Don't hold your breath. Recent models have backed off the cold weather for Florida.
I don't see any real cold air coming down into S. Florida any time soon based on the GFS.
Quoting 10. Patrap:
We should dubb the lil Fella, "Me-So-Low"


>

Now that system deserves a name. Not all these common winter systems TWC keeps naming.
Quoting 28. NttyGrtty:
Thanks Jeff...
Will the Circle be Unbroken
Quoting 7. CybrTeddy:


"Hurricane Huron"

Some debate over whether or not this was a non-tropical low, which is what I'm leaning towards it being, but it was still a strange occurrence.


Could look at the wind speeds around the Low Pressure.
Tropical low will have its strongest winds consentrated around a tight center.
A non-tropical low will tend to have its strongest winds removed from the center (sometimes hundreds of mile from the center).
Models trending warmer with next weeks event...$@$&)&?'!!!!!!
Quoting 6. StAugustineFL:
I was watching that meso yesterday afternoon and was able to snag a radar loop of it on approach.

Thanks StAugustineFL and VR46L, I have posted the links to the images you pointed out.

Jeff Masters
Quoting 7. CybrTeddy:


"Hurricane Huron"

Some debate over whether or not this was a non-tropical low, which is what I'm leaning towards it being, but it was still a strange occurrence.


I personally think it may have been subtropical.
Quoting 34. washingtonian115:
Models trending warmer with next weeks event...$@$&)&?'!!!!!!


New avatar, Wash?
sfl catogry5 your wrong look at the latest gfs
Quoting 37. FunnelVortex:


New avatar, Wash?
Yes.Admin got rid of the old one.Our shot at having a white Christmas was minimal to non though so I shouldn't be all to surprised.
Quoting 39. washingtonian115:
Yes.Admin to rid of the old one.Our shot at having a white Christmas was minimal to non though so I shouldn't be all to surprised.


I still fail to understand why the admins hate your avatars.
New GFS pushes the shortwave energy through the arklatex region before flattening the trough in the SE

997mb low breifly and then the vort max ends up in a positively tilted elongated weak trough.

May make for one brief big severe wx episode.
Instability still seems good.

Watching mainly MS for the biggest threat, maybe parts of AL

Long way off and will change.

12ECMWF hopefully will give some agreement.
Quoting 40. FunnelVortex:


I still fail to understand why the admins hate your avatars.
They seem to not like my dark humor.Looks like I'll have to upload sparkly ones .
Quoting 41. GeorgiaStormz:
New GFS pushes the shortwave energy through the arklatex region before flattening the trough in the SE

997mb low breifly and then the vort max ends up in a positively tilted elongated weak trough.

May make for one brief big severe wx episode.
Instability still seems good.

Watching mainly MS for the biggest threat, maybe parts of AL

Long way off and will change.

12ECMWF hopefully will give some agreement.


Yep, late this weekend into early next week looks like a decent severe weather setup for us here in Mississippi. Hopefully, it won't materialize. However, sub-1000mb lows tracking through Arkansas/Tennessee with favorable instability levels are often favorable severe weather setups for us. Not good being right before Christmas.
Quoting 42. washingtonian115:
They seem to not like my dark humor.Looks like I'll have to upload sparkly ones .


lol....where do you get your avatars from


I can't wait to enjoy my 70s and storms.
Quoting 43. MississippiWx:


Yep, late this weekend into early next week looks like a decent severe weather setup for us here in Mississippi. Hopefully, it won't materialize. However, sub-1000mb lows tracking through Arkansas/Tennessee with favorable instability levels are often favorable severe weather setups for us. Not good being right before Christmas.


I'm actually hoping it materializes but not that far west..

Ive got 150 hrs to hope it trends east. If the shortwave would lift through GA/AL or if the trough wouldnt flatten out as much, it'd enjoy it.
Quoting 45. GeorgiaStormz:


I'm actually hoping it materializes but not that far west..

Ive got 150 hrs to hope it trends east. If the shortwave would lift through GA/AL or if the trough wouldnt flatten out as much, it'd enjoy it.


You can have it. We've had enough tornadoes this year. :-)
Quoting 46. MississippiWx:


You can have it. We've had enough tornadoes this year. :-)


As long as they dont hurt anything, I want them...
Only thing more fun would be snow.

Not like I control anything anyway.

It's funny how I want tornados now, but if I could control the weather, I wouldn't create tornado outbreaks because of the danger.
Quoting 42. washingtonian115:
They seem to not like my dark humor.Looks like I'll have to upload sparkly ones .


Well, there are a lot of oldies on this site who get easily offended by the tastes of our generation, lol.
Quoting 48. FunnelVortex:


Well, there are a lot of oldies on this site who get easily offended by the tastes of our generation, lol.


I find it interesting how you distance yourself from the "oldies", and think your generations tastes are more out there.

Then what of my generation and our tastes :)
Quoting 49. GeorgiaStormz:


I find it interesting how you distance yourself from the "oldies", and think your generations tastes are more out there.

Then what of my generation and our tastes :)


I personally think my tastes are not out there. It's just that there are quite a few 50+ people here who do think so, and quite overreact.

But nonetheless, the age where people start to say "kids these days" gets younger and younger.
Looking like a decent tornado outbreak this weekend across the southern US.

Quoting 51. StormTrackerScott:
.


If you are not gonna say anything then why post?
The Monthly Ocean Briefing introduced a new El Nino indice:





All flavours of El Niño have similar early subsurface origins

Excerpt:

Here we show that the subsurface process of discharging warm waters always begins in the boreal summer/autumn of the year before the event (up to 18 months before the peak) independent of regimes, identifying the discharge process as fundamental to the El Niño onset.
Quoting 53. FunnelVortex:


If you are not gonna say anything then why post?


My maps weren't loading properly.

Quoting 51. StormTrackerScott:
Looking like a decent tornado outbreak this weekend across the southern US.



Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't stormchasers usually dislike chasing in that area?
Quoting 48. FunnelVortex:


Well, there are a lot of oldies on this site who get easily offended by the tastes of our generation, lol.
Or even 60+
Quoting 48. FunnelVortex:


Well, there are a lot of oldies on this site who get easily offended by the tastes of our generation, lol.
Maybe "mature" would have worked out better for you than "oldies"
Quoting 56. FunnelVortex:


Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't stormchasers usually dislike chasing in that area?


Because of winding backrouds through trees and hills with obscured visibility, yes.
Quoting 47. GeorgiaStormz:


As long as they dont hurt anything, I want them...
Only thing more fun would be snow.

Not like I control anything anyway.

It's funny how I want tornados now, but if I could control the weather, I wouldn't create tornado outbreaks because of the danger.


GFS hodograph for us during that time. Not bad.

Quoting 57. PalmBeachWeather:
Or even 60+


I don't know. But the age where people say "kids these days" keeps getting younger and younger.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Maybe "mature" would have worked out better for you than "oldies"


These young whippersnappers.
Here some pics of the tornado damage north of me Saturday & Saturday night.




Quoting 61. FunnelVortex:


I don't know. But the age where people say "kids these days" keeps getting younger and younger.
Guess you have been classified as an "oldie" then Funnel
Quoting 63. StormTrackerScott:
Here some pics of the tornado damage north of me Saturday & Saturday night.




Saw that on the news Scott... Tried calling a friend that lives in Palm Coast this morning...I'm sure she is without power or phone.
Quoting 62. Thunderfan:


These young whippersnappers.
I sure don't want to see their underwear when they are trying to walk....
Quoting 64. PalmBeachWeather:
Guess you have been classified as an "oldie" then Funnel


The original comment I made was a joke anyways.
Quoting 53. FunnelVortex:


If you are not gonna say anything then why post?
I see a dot
Quoting 61. FunnelVortex:


I don't know. But the age where people say "kids these days" keeps getting younger and younger.


And I think we have Miley Cyrus to thank for this.
Quoting 68. PalmBeachWeather:
I see a dot


Nevermind. Scott said his maps wouldnt load.
Quoting 69. FunnelVortex:


And I think we have Miley Cyrus to thank for this.
And Kayne East
CAPE is rather impressive for late December too. Ugh. I don't want a severe wx outbreak.



Shear maps look healthy too.
Quoting 67. FunnelVortex:


The original comment I made was a joke anyways.
I know
Quoting 72. MississippiWx:
CAPE is rather impressive for late December too. Ugh. I don't want a severe wx outbreak.



Shear maps look healthy too.


Are you getting tired of storms or something?
Quoting 66. PalmBeachWeather:
I sure don't want to see there underwear when they are trying to walk....


That's only a select group of my generation.
And IMO it's slowly fading away.
Quoting 72. MississippiWx:
CAPE is rather impressive for late December too. Ugh. I don't want a severe wx outbreak.



Shear maps look healthy too.


I'ts by far the best model depiction this fall/winter by nearly 1000j/kg

none of the other "events" evens showed any CAPE at all 150hrs out.
Quoting 74. FunnelVortex:


Are you getting tired of storms or something?


This coming through your town might give you that feeling towards severe wx. ;-)

storm tracker scott do u see the cold air dec 28
Quoting 77. MississippiWx:


This coming through your town might give you that feeling towards severe wx. ;-)




No matter what you try on me I will always like severe weather ;)
Quoting 48. FunnelVortex:


Well, there are a lot of oldies on this site who get easily offended by the tastes of our generation, lol.
You'll be surprised that I'm a old head :).I am a child at heart.
Quoting 65. PalmBeachWeather:
Saw that on the news Scott... Tried calling a friend that lives in Palm Coast this morning...I'm sure she is without power or phone.


Still a good number without phone & electric service due to trees down across the county. Also Just 15 minutes north of me in Deltona there are a good number of trees & powerlines down.

Quoting 80. washingtonian115:
You'll be surprised that I'm a old head :).I am a child at heart.


I thought you were in your 20s
Quoting 79. FunnelVortex:



No matter what you try on me I will always like severe weather ;)


I doubt that.

Quoting 83. GeorgiaStormz:


I doubt that.



Whatever.
Quoting 77. MississippiWx:


This coming through your town might give you that feeling towards severe wx. ;-)



Given the look at this storms rolling across C & N FL Saturday Night I"m beginning to get worried that we are in for a lot of severe weather this Winter across the South given the fact that the Southern Jet has been active the last couple of months.
Quoting 82. FunnelVortex:


I thought you were in your 20s



Quoting 80. washingtonian115:
You'll be surprised that I'm a old head :).I am a child at heart.



she's miley cyrus at heart.
storm tracker scott wats the latest with the models with the cold air for fl
Quoting 84. FunnelVortex:


Whatever.


I mean if an EF-5 destroyed your house and left you paralyzed, would you be so optimistic about it anymore?
Quoting 82. FunnelVortex:


I thought you were in your 20s
Heh yeah like 20+ years ago.Haha.My daughter turned 18 in October.I had reassured my self how old I was then.
Quoting 88. GeorgiaStormz:


I mean if an EF-5 destroyed your house and left you paralyzed, would you be so optimistic about it anymore?


1. That is a very unlikely scenario and a "gottcha" tactic.

2. There is a big difference between liking severe weather and liking the devastation that can be caused by it.
Quoting 86. GeorgiaStormz:






she's miley cyrus at heart.
Be careful....She can be quite the wrecking ball
Quoting 87. eddye:
storm tracker scott wats the latest with the models with the cold air for fl


There is no cold air for FL anymore on the latest sweep of the models. It does look wet though across FL Monday thru maybe Wednesday next week. Maybe a severe element as well.
Quoting 88. GeorgiaStormz:


I mean if an EF-5 destroyed your house and left you paralyzed, would you be so optimistic about it anymore?
Been there....April 3, 1974....4:40 PM...I was very young
I can see where FunnelVortex is coming from.It's just like hurricanes.I like tracking them but don't like the devastation they bring.
Also, where has Cariboy been latley?
Quoting 91. PalmBeachWeather:
Be careful....She can be quite the wrecking ball
I have no energy for that now:).Each year the "youth" is being taken out of me.Everytime a birthday comes I cringe a little.Lol.
Quoting 90. FunnelVortex:


1. That is a very unlikely scenario and a "gottcha" tactic.

2. There is a big difference between liking severe weather and liking the devastation that can be caused by it.


I'm not trying to get you.
I'm just saying that you mighn't be so optimistic about severe wx "no matter what"

After that I know I probably wouldnt be.
As of right now I still like severe weather.

I love severe weather, just not so much the devastation, same as you.
Quoting 94. washingtonian115:
I can see where FunnelVortex is coming from.It's just like hurricanes.I like tracking them but don't like the devastation they bring.


That's what I don't get about the mentality of some of the bloggers here. If you like severe wx then you are automatically a stupid/ignorant person.
Quoting 98. FunnelVortex:


That's what I don't get about the mentality of some of the bloggers here. If you like severe wx then you are automatically a horrible/stupid/ignorant person.


I didn't say that.

I've defended against that label before (especially after being put under it)
Quoting 97. GeorgiaStormz:


I'm not trying to get you.
I'm just saying that you mighn't be so optimistic about severe wx "no matter what"

After that I know I probably wouldnt be.
As of right now I still like severe weather.

I love severe weather, just not so much the devastation, same as you.


There is no telling if I would be or not, to be fair.
Thanks for the Post Doc,
That is just North of where my Sister lives.
Quoting 99. GeorgiaStormz:


I didn't say that.

I've defended against that label before (especially after being put under it)


I was not aiming at you with this comment, sorry if it looked that way.
Quoting 102. FunnelVortex:


I was not aiming at you with this comment, sorry if it looked that way.


it's all good.
Dig deep

Quoting 104. GeorgiaStormz:
Dig deep



Holey moley.
Quoting 104. GeorgiaStormz:
Dig deep



And guess what this means for me.... cold..dry..cold.... >.<
Quoting 96. washingtonian115:
I have no energy for that now:).Each year the "youth" is being taken out of me.Everytime a birthday comes I cringe a little.Lol.
I'm trying to hang in there myself wash... I walk 2 miles every morning trying to keep my Cindy Crawford look... Not going so well...
Quoting 106. FunnelVortex:


And guess what this means for me.... cold..dry..cold.... >.<


Better than cold wet cold......
Quoting 108. PedleyCA:


Better than cold wet cold......


Trust me. Cold wet cold beats cold dry cold.

We havent gotten any major winter storms this year... ugh.

Hopefully the pattern shifts in January.
Quoting 107. PalmBeachWeather:
I'm trying to hang in there myself wash... I walk 2 miles every morning trying to keep my Cindy Crawford look... Not going so well...


Yeah aging must be terrible.
To slowly lose your youthfulness and energy..

Maybe i'll just park in the way of a tornado at 45 .. ;(

Quoting 110. GeorgiaStormz:


Yeah aging must be terrible.
To slowly lose your youthfulness and energy..

Maybe i'll just park in the way of a tornado at 45 .. ;(



I'm still young yet... Better enjoy it...
Quoting 110. GeorgiaStormz:


Yeah aging must be terrible.
To slowly lose your youthfulness and energy..

Maybe i'll just park in the way of a tornado at 45 .. ;(

GS........... It's so much better than the alternative..
Good lord



that's an increase in strength AND width of the LLJ
Quoting 110. GeorgiaStormz:


Yeah aging must be terrible.
To slowly lose your youthfulness and energy..

Maybe i'll just park in the way of a tornado at 45 .. ;(

Hate to say this GS...It doesn't matter how old you are....Every day you are aging
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Trust me. Cold wet cold beats cold dry cold.

We havent gotten any major winter storms this year... ugh.

Hopefully the pattern shifts in January.


Seems like you have around 7" of snow on the ground. That ain't bad for the middle of December. I belive several wundermembers would kill for that much!

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mkx/hydanalysis.php?loc=w i&element=SnowDpt&yearmonthday=20131216&submit=Sub mit

I've still got 28 years until I hit the dreaded age of 45... Better enjoy ever last moment of it... And maybe donate money to life extension research...
Quoting 101. PedleyCA:
Thanks for the Post Doc,
That is just North of where my Sister lives.
Ped....What city does sis live in?...I love the UP
Quoting 115. 47n91w:


Seems like you have around 7" of snow on the ground. That ain't bad for the middle of December. I belive several wundermembers would kill for that much!



I live in Wausau, where we do have that ammount of snow. It's just that the snow piled up gradually, and after Ceaser and Draco last December, this one seems wimpy.
Saving grace is that the winds have not too much veer from surface to 500mb..

500mb jet streak is still very SSW.
Still get this



I cant wait till this is in NAM range.

The helicity map would be much easier to analyze.
Quoting 117. PalmBeachWeather:
Ped....What city does sis live in?...I love the UP


NE Wisconsin-Rhinelander
Quoting 115. 47n91w:


Seems like you have around 7" of snow on the ground. That ain't bad for the middle of December. I belive several wundermembers would kill for that much!

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mkx/hydanalysis.php?loc=w i&element=SnowDpt&yearmonthday=20131216&am p;submit=Sub mit




Mother nature needs to watch her back.
Quoting 110. GeorgiaStormz:


Yeah aging must be terrible.
To slowly lose your youthfulness and energy..

Maybe i'll just park in the way of a tornado at 45 .. ;(



Tell me about it. I used to be able to do anything (snow ski, snow board, race motocross, tae kwon do, surf, rock climbing, etc).
Now I'm trying to heal up after 3 back surgeries. Last year I had surgery on both my ankles.

I'm hoping 2014 (jumped one too many years) is my year and I can get back to the things I love.

Quoting 118. FunnelVortex:


I live in Wausau, where we do have that ammount of snow. It's just that the snow piled up gradually, and after Ceaser and Draco last December, this one seems wimpy.


There doesn't seem to be a reliable CoCoRaHS reporter right in Wausau, but the occasional reports from Weston add up to 23" of snow so far in December.

The WI State Climatology Office (link) lists average December snowfall around 14"

You're not doing too bad, especially with a couple more weeks to go.
Quoting 116. FunnelVortex:
I've still got 28 years until I hit the dreaded age of 45... Better enjoy ever last moment of it... And maybe donate money to life extension research...


Kelly Slater is 41 years old and he's still one of the best surfers in the world.
I beleive he came in 2nd this year in the World Championships.
Good evening. Interesting weather feature over Lake Superior for sure!
Weather in Germany is calm and mostly dry, but should be rainy at Christmas (ummm).
Different thing in Vietnam (!) right now:

Snow and floods in China and Vietnam
BBC weather video, 6 December 2013 Last updated at 15:50
Rare snowfall has brought disruption to Vietnam. Forecasters say the weather system responsible for the snow has also brought unusual weather to China. Chris Fawkes has more.



With photo gallery from Vietnam: Heavy snowfall caused a traffic jam that extended nearly 5 km on the top of O Quy Ho mountain pass in Sa Pa town in the northern province of Lao Cai on Sunday morning.
Many roads and trees have been blanketed by 5 to 10cm thick snow.



Quoting 125. Sfloridacat5:


Kelly Slater is 41 years old and he's still one of the best surfers in the world.
I beleive he came in 2nd this year in the World Championships.


Yep, & he's from Cocoa Beach,FL.
Quoting 116. FunnelVortex:
I've still got 28 years until I hit the dreaded age of 45... Better enjoy ever last moment of it... And maybe donate money to life extension research...


You are a teenager?
Cocoa is a great place to surf just on the southside of the Pier is where the wave are always the best!
Quoting 114. PalmBeachWeather:
Hate to say this GS...It doesn't matter how old you are....Every day you are aging



At least as a child you are going up hill and maturing, and not declining.

you don't even stop growing till 21.
Afternoon all. Cool blog topic. I kinda like the sort of "off the wall" topics we get in the winter. It's mind expanding.
Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 10:40 AM PST on December 16, 2013
Clear
79.6 °F
Clear
Humidity: 12%
Dew Point: 23 °F

Wind: 11.0 mph from the SE
Wind Gust: 22.0 mph

75.4 here. (10:52PST)
cold and rain for christmas eve/day..GFS has been all over the place showing either too warm for snow or cold enough for snow..I guess I'll find out when Christmas eve roll around and I look out the window and see either snow or rain..








christmas eve........................
looks like a strong front for the whole east coast the 23rd..
Quoting 129. StormTrackerScott:
Cocoa is a great place to surf just on the southside of the Pier is where the wave are always the best!


I usually get a beach house on Cocoa Beach every summer. My daughter and I both love to surf.
I previously lived on Padre Island near Corpus Christi Tx. Pretty consistant surf there even though its on the GOM.
Quoting 131. BahaHurican:
Afternoon all. Cool blog topic. I kinda like the sort of "off the wall" topics we get in the winter. It's mind expanding.


Anything goes in december.
Quoting 139. Sfloridacat5:


I usually get a beach house on Cocoa Beach every summer. My daughter and I both love to surf.
I previously lived on Padre Island near Corpus Christi Tx. Pretty consistant surf there even though its on the GOM.
cocoa beach is a great place alright
Quoting 134. ncstorm:
cold and rain for christmas eve/day..GFS has been all over the place showing either too warm for snow or cold enough for snow..I guess I'll find out when Christmas eve roll around and I look out the window and see either snow or rain..











With a front like that, I'd bet 90% rain.
THE COOLEST NIGHT WILL BE TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 40S WEST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND AROUND 60 OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THESE
LOWS TONIGHT ARE ACTUALLY NEAR THE NORMAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BUT WILL FEEL COOLER COMPARED TO THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS AS
THE LOWS HAVE BEEN IN THE 60S EXCEPT AROUND 70 ALONG THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS.

THE FORECAST LOWS WILL THEN SLOWLY WARM UP AND SHOULD BE AROUND 60
OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE 50S WEST
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND MID TO UPPER 60S EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TODAY WHICH WILL ALSO BE THE COOLEST
HIGHS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING UP INTO
THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EXCEPT AROUND 80
EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
Quoting 141. LargoFl:
cocoa beach is a great place alright
Love the Rock Shrimp... Hate the Ron Jons.....
I wish you would all stop talking about age. It is just a state of mind. I don't feel any different now than I did when I was 20 and still sharp.

I wish you would all stop talking about age. It is just a state of mind. I don't feel any different now than I did when I was 20 and still sharp.

Besides, this is an Antique Car blog.


Quoting 145. PalmBeachWeather:
Love the Rock Shrimp... Hate the Ron Jons.....
yeah guess the surfer folks like ron johns..i stay clear lol..
Quoting 145. PalmBeachWeather:
Love the Rock Shrimp... Hate the Ron Jons.....


Coconuts on the Beach is my place to dine and drink.
S. Padre Island - north side of the Jetty. To get to the south side of the Jetty is a PIA (long drive).
Occasionally, Texas gets some real good surf.
anyone ever go see the Manatee river boat parade?..must be beautiful with all the boats lit for xmas...
It has been a wet 2013 in Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands. 2013 ranks as the 4th most wettest year in Puerto Rico. In the U.SVI it ranks at #6.

.CLIMATE...2013 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE 6TH AND 4TH WETTEST YEAR ON
RECORD AT THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTL AIRPORT(TJSJ) AND THE CYRIL E.
KING AIRPORT(TIST) WITH 82.69" AND 53.58" RESPECTIVELY. THE WETTEST
YEAR ON RECORD AT BOTH STATIONS WAS 2010 WITH 89.50" AT TJSJ AND
61.36" AT TIST.
Quoting 148. StormTrackerScott:


Coconuts on the Beach is my place to dine and drink.
Lots of good restaurants there Scott... 3 or 4 by the port...Fishlips and a few others.
top 10 Christmas events in florida.........Link
Hurricane Rita - South Padre Island Tx. South side of the Jetty
9 inches of snow on the ground after 1.8 inches last night ..

Peoria, Illinois (Airport)
Overcast
20 °F
Overcast
Humidity: 78%
Dew Point: 14 °F
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 30.08 in (Falling)
Visibility: 7.0 miles

Hey Gro,does this mean you are getting Bi-Coastal?
It has been a wet Christmas period here with above normal rainfall and it looks like it will continue until the end of 2013.

Quoting 156. PedleyCA:
Hey Gro,does this mean you are getting Bi-Coastal?


Nobody ever posts the weather in Yakima or Walla Walla. I got tired of seeing South Florida all the time.
Good Point Sensei....
160. VR46L


Quoting 160. VR46L:



Are you saying there are actual cycles to the weather?
Afew years ago Georgia was in a bad drought but seems to have recovered nicely.
Funny isn't it how things change
Quoting 71. PalmBeachWeather:
And Kayne East

The story I heard was that prisoners do not like prison food so they lose weight. That makes their pants fall off. So it becomes cool because "everyone is doing it," ummmm, in prison.

Doesn't sound so far fetched when you consider that:

"According to the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS), 2,266,800 adults were incarcerated in U.S. federal and state prisons, and county jails at year-end 2011 – about 0.7% of adults in the U.S. resident population.[7] Additionally, 4,814,200 adults at year-end 2011 were on probation or on parole.[11] In total, 6,977,700 adults were under correctional supervision (probation, parole, jail, or prison) in 2011 – about 2.9% of adults in the U.S. resident population."

It gets worse when you consider what portion of the population has been in prison--not just people in prison at the current time.





Where do the oldies fit in?

"The percentage of prisoners in federal and state prisons aged 55 and older increased by 33% from 2000 to 2005 while the prison population grew by 8%. The Southern Legislative Conference found that in 16 southern states the elderly prisoner population increased on average by 145% between 1997 and 2007. The growth in the elderly population brought along higher health care costs, most notably seen in the 10% average increase in state prison budgets from 2005 to 2006."

FWIW My pants are falling down and I've never been in prison!
Quoting 97. GeorgiaStormz:


I'm not trying to get you.
I'm just saying that you mighn't be so optimistic about severe wx "no matter what"

After that I know I probably wouldnt be.
As of right now I still like severe weather.

I love severe weather, just not so much the devastation, same as you.

I don't know why not. Many people go through the aftermath of a major hurricane. Just because they're terrified of it hitting their house doesn't mean they don't enjoy tracking it out to sea or somewhere else other than their location. Same for tornadoes.
If you go to the Barrow Ice Radar you can watch the movie of the ice flow.
On the last day, Barrow gets pretty much iced in with ice stretching several miles off shore.

The image shows land on the right with ice to the left.
165. eddye
hey guys largo fl u see that cold air with it
166. VR46L
Quoting 161. tramp96:

Are you saying there are actual cycles to the weather?
Afew years ago Georgia was in a bad drought but seems to have recovered nicely.
Funny isn't it how things change


I just saw it in my Twitter feed and thought it was a map that showed some good news for a change!

Yeah there are quite a few places in drought reversal at the moment , which is great !

Remember when this map was that really dark colour



Quoting 165. eddye:
hey guys largo fl u see that cold air with it


eddye - We need to watch and wait. There's definately no cold air coming down into S. Florida over the next 7 -10 days.
After that, it really an unknown. The models were showing freezing temperatures over a large part of Florida. But as of today, the models aren't showing any real cold air dropping down into S. Fl all the way through Jan. 1

But that could definately change. So we need to just wait and watch the models for any changes.
This is the 2014 hurricane forecast from the GWO

Press Release (Dec. 13): 2014 Hurricane Predictions - (for the Atlantic Basin by GWO)

The Global Weather Oscillations "Climate Pulse Technology" and CEO David Dilley predicts the 2014 Atlantic Basin hurricane season will have:


1. Above average number of named storms (17 ) hurricanes and tropical storms

2. Above average number of hurricanes ( 8 )

3. Near average number of major hurricanes ( 3 )
CNTV released a more detailed video of the landing taken from a descent camera on Change-3. YouTube user SpaceOperaFR has handily turned the frame upside-down so we appear to be looking down at the surface as we descend. The scene ends with the one-ton lander's footpad on the surface

Quoting 166. VR46L:


I just saw it in my Twitter feed and thought it was a map that showed some good news for a change!

Yeah there are quite a few places in drought reversal at the moment , which is great !

Remember when this map was that really dark colour




I lived there for 18 years and it always seemed feast or famine. San Antonio is a great place in the spring or fall but the summers, forget about it. Man do I miss the food though.
172. VR46L
Off - Topic but rather interesting Newspaper article

When Seattle shakes from quakes, it’s going to slide, too
Quoting 110. GeorgiaStormz:


Yeah aging must be terrible.
To slowly lose your youthfulness and energy..

Maybe i'll just park in the way of a tornado at 45 .. ;(



Oh please! You are a babe in the woods yet- you don't find any wisdom until you're at least 60ish or so :)) and precious little then. I am old enough to have seen Hare Krishna followers giving out flowers at Dulles and I am far from chasing tornadoes. Life will move fast enough, don't give any away :)
174. NCstu
Quoting 169. Grothar:
This is the 2014 hurricane forecast from the GWO

Press Release (Dec. 13): 2014 Hurricane Predictions - (for the Atlantic Basin by GWO)

The Global Weather Oscillations "Climate Pulse Technology" and CEO David Dilley predicts the 2014 Atlantic Basin hurricane season will have:


1. Above average number of named storms (17 ) hurricanes and tropical storms

2. Above average number of hurricanes ( 8 )

3. Near average number of major hurricanes ( 3 )

He is putting a lot of weight on ENSO conditions. I think part of the problem with long range forecasting is that even if all of the indicators point one way, all it takes is one thing to prevent or weaken a storm. It could be dry air, shear, cooler water, etc. This past year it seemed like there were quite a few Cape Verde storms that simply couldn't make the trip. And then the BOC storms couldn't get into the northern gulf. I don't think there is a way to know if that will or won't happen again next year. Some of the depression estimates could be reasonable (if anyone makes them) but guessing larger storms so far in advance is unrealistic.

I believe that this naxt system will have some severe weather with it. Arklatex, Tennessee, and possibly Ohio valley.



but guessing larger storms so far in advance is unrealistic



i think the whole thing is unrelaistic this far out......
Issued by The National Weather Service
New York City, NY

Mon, Dec 16, 2013, 3:09 PM EST

Prepare for Winter Storms
Keep Safe During the Storm
Driving in Snow & Ice
Are You at Risk For Winter Storms?
Get Live Traffic Reports

... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY.

* LOCATIONS... SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NORTHERN LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES... SNOW

* ACCUMULATIONS... SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES.

* VISIBILITIES... VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO 1/2 MILES OR LESS FOR BRIEF PERIODS TUESDAY MORNING.

* TIMING... SNOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING RUSH HOUR... AND BECOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES BY MID MORNING. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE START OF THE AFTERNOON RUSH HOUR.

* IMPACTS... ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CREATE SLIPPERY ROADWAYS AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS... ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON COMMUTES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW... SLEET... OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES... AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
178. NCstu
Quoting 176. ricderr:
but guessing larger storms so far in advance is unrealistic



i think the whole thing is unrelaistic this far out......

the same guy is predicting a 7.0 or higher earthquake in California by March. He predicted the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season almost perfectly, but even a broken clock is right twice a day...
Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 12:11 PM PST on December 16, 2013
Mostly Cloudy
82.6 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 11%
Dew Point: 23 °F

Wind: 16.0 mph from the SSE
Wind Gust: 25.0 mph

WU has the forecast at 83, I have 80.8 here (12:26PST)
Issued by The National Weather Service
New York City, NY

Mon, Dec 16, 2013, 3:09 PM EST

Prepare for Winter Storms
Keep Safe During the Storm
Driving in Snow & Ice
Are You at Risk For Winter Storms?
Get Live Traffic Reports

... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY.

* LOCATIONS... SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NORTHERN LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES... SNOW

* ACCUMULATIONS... SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES.

* VISIBILITIES... VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO 1/2 MILES OR LESS FOR BRIEF PERIODS TUESDAY MORNING.

* TIMING... SNOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING RUSH HOUR... AND BECOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES BY MID MORNING. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE START OF THE AFTERNOON RUSH HOUR.

* IMPACTS... ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CREATE SLIPPERY ROADWAYS AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS... ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON COMMUTES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW... SLEET... OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES... AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
Quoting 169. Grothar:
This is the 2014 hurricane forecast from the GWO

Press Release (Dec. 13): 2014 Hurricane Predictions - (for the Atlantic Basin by GWO)

The Global Weather Oscillations "Climate Pulse Technology" and CEO David Dilley predicts the 2014 Atlantic Basin hurricane season will have:


1. Above average number of named storms (17 ) hurricanes and tropical storms

2. Above average number of hurricanes ( 8 )

3. Near average number of major hurricanes ( 3 )


Very different from the forecast posted by Scott this morning.
I believe Dr. Gray's team is only predicting 11 named storms.
They were completely wrong last year, so this year they're going with another slow season.

Watch next year be a record breaking season.
Quoting 179. PedleyCA:
Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 12:11 PM PST on December 16, 2013
Mostly Cloudy
82.6 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 11%
Dew Point: 23 °F

Wind: 16.0 mph from the SSE
Wind Gust: 25.0 mph

WU has the forecast at 83, I have 80.8 here (12:26PST)


humidity 11%, that's extremely dry.
Anything under 40% is real dry for us.
We're currently sitting at 54% humidity and it feels great outside with temps in the 70s.
183. VR46L
Quoting 175. hydrus:

I believe that this naxt system will have some severe weather with it. Arklatex, Tennessee, and possibly Ohio valley.





When I looked at the models this morning I got the feeling of severe as well ,
Quoting 51. StormTrackerScott:
Looking like a decent tornado outbreak this weekend across the southern US.

If the trough takes on a negative tilt ( which is not what the latest models show ) there could be some tornadoes, but for now it looks like heavy rain and high winds.There are indications that some areas will have dew points in the 60,s and that would increase instability. It is that time of year, and this pattern will only become more conducive for severe weather as time goes by. I dont doomcast, and is my opinion only.
Well this resembles the GFS

ECMWF




finally some agreement.

After the shortwave rotates through (sub 1000mb low), everything weakens after that and the trough becomes strung out and positive.
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #3
TROPICAL LOW 03U
2:35 AM WST December 17 2013
============================================

At 1:00 AM WST, Tropical Low (1002 hPa) located at 8.4S 98.1E or 445 km north northeast of Cocos Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving west southwest at 2 knots.

The low is moving west southwest and may develop into a tropical cyclone on Wednesday as it passes to the northwest of Cocos Islands.

GALES are not expected on the Cocos Islands during Tuesday, however GALES with gusts to 100 km/h are possible during Wednesday and may persist into Thursday morning.

Heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected to increase later Tuesday as the system moves closer. Depending on the movement of the low, the rain and thunderstorms should continue through Wednesday then ease on Thursday.

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS 8.5S 97.5E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 9.2S 96.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS 11.2S 93.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 12.5S 89.9E - 55 knots (CAT 2)

Additional Information
=========================
The low has been located with a combination of animated satellite imagery, microwave imagery and scatterometer winds. However, due to the broad circulation there is some uncertainty as to its exact position.

The system has recently moved west southwest, however this movement is expected to slow over the next 12-24 hours before resuming a more southwesterly track later on Tuesday. While the current position is uncertain, there is a reasonable amount of confidence in the forecast motion as there is strong agreement between the models.

Shear at 06Z was moderate [15 to 25 knots] with lighter shear to the south of the system. With the system moving into lighter shear, development is likely. Model guidance indicates the system strengthens and 90% or greater of the EC ensemble members have a greater than 34 knot system during Thursday and Friday.

Current intensity is based on scatterometer winds. Unable to assign T1.0 as yet. The forecast intensity is based on conditions being moderately favorable with shear decreasing as the system moves south. sea surface temperatures are high and there is no dry the system.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
====================================
A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for the Cocos Islands

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE AMARA (02-20132014)
22:30 PM RET December 16 2013
============================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Amara (995 hPa) located at 15.8S 72.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
40 NM from the center in the southwest quadrant and up to 70 NM in the northwest quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
========================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the northeast quadrant and up to 105 NM in the western semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS 15.8S 71.5E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS 15.8S 70.3E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS 15.9S 68.1E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS 16.3S 64.8E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
==========================
The system has been named Amara by the Mauritius Meteorological Services at 1330 PM UTC.

ASCAT-B data at 1706 PM UTC was useful to precise the current position. The system seems to have bend westwards during the last 6 hours.

The microwave presentation continue to improve with a better defined low level signature (cf SSMIS 37 ghz channel at 1447 PM UTC) embedded within deep convection. However, deep convection is still fluctuating and appears somewhat ragged on infrared imagery. The upper level divergence is better defined in the eastern semi-circle as the shear is abating.

The system should continue moving westwards, under the steering influence of the lower levels subtropical high pressures. A weakness of the ridge should leave the system within a weak steering environment, that will cause a slow down of the forward motion until Wednesday. From Thursday, the system should accelerate again on a west southwestward track. At the end of the forecast period, an upper level trough may do to decelerate the system again and even do it curve clearly southward.

Over this expected track, the easterly to northeasterly vertical wind shear should gradually decrease and allow the system to deepen progressively. The sea surface temperatures are favorable on the forecast track. According to the improvement of the microwave presentation seen on recent microwave pass, the present intensity forecast has been raised upwards.

The current forecast track is close to the two last available ECMWF deterministic outputs (16/0000z and 16/0600z) along with the mean of the 51 tracks of the ECMWF ensemble outputs. The latest output from the ECMWF ensemble forecast (16/0000z) still shows some significant spread in the tracks at medium and longer range of the forecast that induces a rather low confidence in both track and intensity forecast.
Shortwave lifts through TX/OK/AR on the ECMWF, little west of the ECMWF

Very Warm day.

Please trend east.

Double Post
189. NCstu
I haven't seen a text version of Scott's forecast. Anyone have a link?
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 7 m
UK news hyping Wed-Thurs storm yet? Sustained hurricane force winds look likely. Link
Quoting 182. Sfloridacat5:


humidity 11%, that's extremely dry.
Anything under 40% is real dry for us.
We're currently sitting at 54% humidity and it feels great outside with temps in the 70s.


We are still in the midst of a Santa Ana Wind event and that is temps a few degrees higher than forecast yesterday and the wind is pushing the humidity way down. I like it when its dry. Good water cooler conditions but not hot enough to have to use it. Was a bit warm last night.
Quoting 183. VR46L:


When I looked at the models this morning I got the feeling of severe as well ,
The ingredients are there. It would depend on what type of major pattern change for the U.S.The jet has been amplified a lot recently. I hope that the NAO does not go negative, especially with that high pressure area that has persisted off the south eastern coast. If that were to happen, there could be a significant outbreak.
193. VR46L
Quoting 190. Luisport:
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 7 m
UK news hyping Wed-Thurs storm yet? Sustained hurricane force winds look likely. Link


Not too enamoured with that Image sending 6O KTS to me .... But No no real hype !

Kind of used to it ! Been there done that !
Quoting 189. NCstu:
I haven't seen a text version of Scott's forecast. Anyone have a link?

Quoting 189. NCstu:
I haven't seen a text version of Scott's forecast. Anyone have a link?


This is what Scott posted this morning. I thought it was Dr. Gray's forecast. My mistake.

Scott's post
Dr. Scott has released his 2014 Hurricane Predictions. Combination of a potential strong El-Nino building in causing lots of shear across the Atlantic and Caribbean Basins should really put a cap on 2014's season. SE US may have 2 threats next year though one in May or June then again in September.

11 named storms
4 hurricanes
1 major
Quoting 194. Sfloridacat5:



This is what Scott posted this morning. I thought it was Dr. Gray's forecast. My mistake.

Scott's post
Dr. Scott has released his 2014 Hurricane Predictions. Combination of a potential strong El-Nino building in causing lots of shear across the Atlantic and Caribbean Basins should really put a cap on 2014's season. SE US may have 2 threats next year though one in May or June then again in September.

11 named storms
4 hurricanes
1 major

Who's Dr. Scott?
Quoting 195. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Who's Dr. Scott?


Your guess is as good as mine.
It's from post #995 in the previous blog.
Quoting 163. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't know why not. Many people go through the aftermath of a major hurricane. Just because they're terrified of it hitting their house doesn't mean they don't enjoy tracking it out to sea or somewhere else other than their location. Same for tornadoes.


Maybe, then again, maybe not.

You just might lose some enthusiasm if it was bad enough to you.

Either way, enjoying finals week?
198. NCstu
Quoting 194. Sfloridacat5:



SE US may have 2 threats next year though one in May or June then again in September.

11 named storms
4 hurricanes
1 major


hmmm... that's rather specific. The sole basis for that is the Nino is potentially coming back?
It could be this guy in Orlando. I know Scott's from Orlando.

Hurricane forecasts: Full of hot air

December 3, 2013|Scott Maxwell, TAKING NAMES

Congratulations, everyone!

You just survived one of the most tumultuous hurricane seasons in recent memory.

Or so we were told last April, anyway.

That was back when the nation's infamous "hurricane forecasters" were whipping up Category 5-level hype over the impending storm season.

"Batten down," warned the headlines.

"Scientists predict busy hurricane season."

"Hurricane season gets ready to heat up."

It was our annual, overhyped exercise in premature evacuation.

This year, we were told to brace ourselves for four %u2014 that's right, FOUR!!! %u2014 major storms.

Only, it turns out we had slightly fewer major storms %u2026 like zero.

We also had fewer than the nine hurricanes predicted. Try two. And anemic ones at that.

Faced with the reality that, once again, hurricane forecasting looked more like dart-throwing, the barristers of barometric pressure began explaining all the reasons they got things wrong.

There was dust in the Sahara. There was surprisingly dry air over the Atlantic. The moon was in the seventh house, and Jupiter aligned with Mars.

In hindsight, it all made perfect sense. The science was sound, they said. It was just everything else that went wrong.

I was reminded of the degenerate gambler who walks out the casino broke %u2014 but is still convinced he has a winning "system."

I used to wonder whether monkeys couldn't do just as good of a job predicting storm seasons.

So a few years ago, I got myself some monkeys and decided to see.

Spider monkeys at the Central Florida Zoo smacked random numbers on a page (in exchange for fruit cups). And we put their picks up against those of the famed forecaster Dr. William Gray.

At the end of the season, we had a close contest. In four prediction categories, the monkeys beat Gray once, tied him once and lost to him twice.

In other words, Gray eked out a 2-1 win ... over monkeys.

Now, Gray and the other hurricane forecasters %u2014 yes, there are more %u2014 have done better some years. Sometimes they even nailed it.


Even when they're way off the mark, they have found a splendidly creative way to amend that: the notorious midseason "update."

This is when they change their forecasts halfway through the season.

Um, that's not forecasting. That's watching. Let me watch the first half of a football game, and I guarantee I'll do better job predicting the winner.

Still, each and every year, the media go bonkers about the predictions. We love hyping things in general. And things that can kill you? Well, it doesn't get more tantalizing than that.

But here's the thing: Even when these preseason picks were generally accurate ... so what?

Telling me that 25 storms might hit somewhere between Nova Scotia and Nicaragua doesn't do me a lick of good.

We can have a super-light season with only one major storm %u2014 but if that major storm wipes my cul de sac off the grid, that's all that matters.

The lesson should be the same every year: Be prepared.

Gray and other forecasters say that has always been their goal, which is laudable. But wildly errant predictions actually undermine the cause.

Predict a few Armageddons that never come, and folks stop paying attention.

That may be why the end truly is nigh ... for the hurricane-predicting program anyway.

Just last week, The Associated Press reported that the funding was running out for Gray's Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University. (Yes, they watch the tropics from the Rockies.) One of the last big private donors %u2014 an insurance company %u2014 pulled out this past summer.

It looks like the end of an error.

To be fair, Gray and his counterparts made valuable contributions beyond these forecasts. They conducted pioneering research that helped us better understand how storms work, how they form and even their short-term predicted paths.

We need all of that.

What we don't need, though, are overhyped, far-out predictions that fall flat so frequently that people stop paying attention to the science altogether.

smaxwell@tribune.com or 407-420-6141
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 2h
@Ryan_Wichman @bryanwx little tricky to see 32° & 35°F isotherms -- 995 mb low w/2'' QPF of sub-freezing precip


This possible severe wx system is loaded with moisture on the cold side.

Reminds me of last year's christmas and winter storm euclid.

Resembles it in shape and threat area too.
well the Euro has flopped..it was showing warmer temps and is now showing cold for Christmas day for the south

00z


12z
Quoting 193. VR46L:


Not too enamoured with that Image sending 6O KTS to me .... But No no real hype !

Kind of used to it ! Been there done that !


Hi, VR. Just saw in a German weatherblog, that ECMWF model has a severe storm in store for Germany with temps up to 15 or 16 degrees Celsius (60F) for Christmas. Chances to catch our new very nice Christmas illumination in town with snow on a photo are gone I guess, sigh.

Stay safe and bright in all the winds. And good night everyone. Still some work to do and no Christmas shopping yet.


View from one of my office windows this evening, *howl*, lol.
wow that's pushing it so far out

Saturday, Dec. 21

Severe thunderstorms, isolated tornadoes, and heavy rain in east TX, east of a line roughly from San Antonio to Texarkana, LA, south and east AR, west TN, MS, northwest AL. TOR:CON - 5 east TX, west LA, southwest AR; 4 - northeast LA, southeast AR, west MS; 3 rest of area.

Severe thunderstorms weaken somewhat overnight as they move into less-unstable air, but may push across the west half of AL and the western FL panhandle. TOR:CON - 3.

TOR:CON Values Saturday
AL northwest - 3
AL southwest, night - 3
AR southwest - 5
AR southeast - 4
AR northeast - 3
FL west panhandle night - 3
LA west half - 5
LA east half - 4
MS west half - 4
MS east half - 3
TN west third - 3
TX east from Longview to Waco to Victoria - 5
TX south-central near San Antonio - 3
other areas - 1 or less

Sunday, Dec. 22

The core of the upper-air forcing slides northeast toward the Great Lakes, and the cold front moves east into less-unstable air, but still some isolated severe thunderstorms and a chance of a few tornadoes in southeast LA, southeast MS, central and south AL, central and south GA from Atlanta and Athens southward, FL panhandle. TOR:CON - 2 to 3 these areas.
Quoting 146. Grothar:
I wish you would all stop talking about age. It is just a state of mind. I don't feel any different now than I did when I was 20 and still sharp.

I wish you would all stop talking about age. It is just a state of mind. I don't feel any different now than I did when I was 20 and still sharp.

Besides, this is an Antique Car blog.




ahhh, so good to see you my friend.. yea, Doc's last blog was a real Duesy... :)
Quoting 197. GeorgiaStormz:


Maybe, then again, maybe not.

You just might lose some enthusiasm if it was bad enough to you.

Either way, enjoying finals week?

Finals week was last week here. Glad it's over with.
206. VR46L
Edit

Georgia Storms Beat me to it :)
Crisp cool day with upper 50s after a cool start in mid 30s. No frost at my house.

34/59 or 1C / 15C
BTW, Grothar speaking of antique cars:

In Germany we use term "oldtimer" especially for old cars. I know it's different in English speaking countries, lol. German-English is funny.


Source of the pic; I've looked for one somehow weather related, lol. Bye now.
Quoting 205. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Finals week was last week here. Glad it's over with.


Ahh... regular high schoolers here have it this week.
wow, quiet
Winter Storm Falco has been named.

Quoting 210. GeorgiaStormz:


Ahh... regular high schoolers here have it this week.
My daughter's CC finals didn't begin until this week while, I believe, most the U's were done last week.

Was supposed to hit 37 today, but 29 is high. Satellite shows no clouds, prob why forecast that high, but had a fog all day. From snow I guess. Around 4" as forecast, arriving mostly Sat a.m..

Very light N-NW winds, 28 dewpt, 29.93". High 40s forecast for mid week, so will need another round from weekend storm for a white Christmas in S C IL(unless bust like today!).
Quoting 212. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Winter Storm Falco has been named.


Better start panicking and buy up all the bread and milk since a clipper got named.
215. VR46L
Quoting 212. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Winter Storm Falco has been named.



The devil gonna get me .... when I hear falco I think

Falco - Rock Me Amadeus (Original Single Version) NDW

Quoting 212. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Winter Storm Falco has been named.



Seeing another snowstorm for the same place and a big warm up coming for GA makes me feel some type of way.
BMX

OBVIOUSLY THIS FAR OUT THE DETAILS ARE HAZY...BUT THE 12Z GFS AND
12Z ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING THAT SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR
THE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/WIND SHEAR COMBINATIONS NEEDED TO PROMOTE
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. BASED OFF FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND HELICITIES WOULD SUPPORT
ROTATING STORMS SUNDAY...WHICH MEANS ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD BE
POSSIBLE. BOTH EXTENDED MODELS HAVE THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR
NORTHWEST/NORTH SUNDAY MOVING NORTHEAST WITH TIME. NEITHER MODEL
DEEPENS THE SURFACE LOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BUT WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW CLOSELY...AS IT WILL HAVE A
LARGE INFLUENCE OVER THE AMOUNT OF BACKING AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS...AND CORRESPONDING TORNADO THREAT.
THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT ALSO LOOKS TO PASS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH A SQUALL LINE
IN TOW...SUGGESTING DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING
THE TIMING OF THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA. AT THIS
POINT BASED OFF THE FORECAST EVOLUTION AND EJECTION OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA...OUR TIMING COULD EASILY BE OFF BY 12-24 HOURS
IN EITHER DIRECTION. FOR EXAMPLE...SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE
GFS KEEP THE UPPER LOW CUTOFF OVER MEXICO THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. BUT
CONCEPTUALLY THERE IS ENOUGH OF A THREAT...AND LOOKING AT HOW THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING THE PAST FEW DAYS...TO ADD A
MENTION OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES TO THE HWO FOR
SUNDAY. WE WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND DATA
THROUGH THE WEEK...AND WILL PROVIDE REFINEMENTS TO THE FORECAST
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.
Quoting 212. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Winter Storm Falco has been named.

Link

According to CWG the system is a weak clipper or disturbance in the atmosphere.
Quoting 218. washingtonian115:
Link

According to CWG the system is a weak clipper or disturbance in the atmosphere.



Yeah not sure the name is worth it.
But it's not a big deal either way.
Return flow appears to be sufficient on this run for some decent convection. Time will tell.

Quoting 218. washingtonian115:
Link

According to CWG the system is a weak clipper or disturbance in the atmosphere.

I don't even agree with them on this one.

Link

Oh well..
This is why I believe there will be strong thunderstorms.
Quoting 212. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Winter Storm Falco has been named.



Another named system.
So basically every week until April we'll have a named system.
Quoting 221. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't even agree with them on this one.

Link

Oh well..


Weather Channel been hustlin'
Tryna make them somethin'
Ain't no tellin' what they'll do for the paper
No negative tilt yet.
A clipper.... really.... Woo! A whopping 1-3"!!!!!!!!!! Soo scared right now -_-

** Sarcasm Flag raised very high**
Quoting 225. hydrus:
No negative tilt yet.


The negative tilt is briefly in the shortwave



It is gone after that

That's why there is a window, and not a progressive event.
Ugh. I'm sick of these clippers.

I want a big winter storm or blizzard.
18z virtually is the same as the 12z... maybe a tad weaker.


Shortwave still lifts through AR/OK/TX/MO
Quoting 225. hydrus:
No negative tilt yet.


greatest super cell threat

Best rule of thumb in terms of hurricane prediction lately, for pros and amateurs alike, would seem to be to go with the standard above-average, below-average, or above-average predictions for the late-summer and August updates depending on the real-time set up at that time; then taking it one storm at a time.

We are getting too hung up on the potential numbers and ranges in an effort the "verify" our forecasts at the end of season but Mother Nature has been throwing curve balls lately. 

We are not playing the Lotto or Powerball here....................
Talk about a snow storm for one Seattle Car Dealer. Gotta love it. A long shot pays off for the little guys.

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/car-dealership -on-the-hook-for-420k-in-promotion-after-seahawks- throttle-giants-121613


Working on the final page of my 2014 McTavish Numbers.
234. VR46L
Quoting 218. washingtonian115:
Link

According to CWG the system is a weak clipper or disturbance in the atmosphere.


Ryan Maue says it dont develop a low pressure until out to sea past Long Island




LMAO !!
Quoting 234. VR46L:


Ryan Maue says it dont develop a low pressure until out to sea past Long Island




LMAO !!


For a system to be a named winter storm it should have a low pressure center and produce enough snow and a hazardous threat.

I don't see that with this one.
236. VR46L
Courtesy of NWS Tallahassee

Snow still Visable in Middle east

237. VR46L
Quoting 235. FunnelVortex:


For a system to be a named winter storm it should have a low pressure center and produce enough snow and a hazardous threat.

I don't see that with this one.


Yeah its probably gonna be a bigger issue for me next weekend when it gets a shape in the Atlantic !
Quoting 234. VR46L:


Ryan Maue says it dont develop a low pressure until out to sea past Long Island




LMAO !!


Quoting 236. VR46L:
Courtesy of NWS Tallahassee

Snow still Visable in Middle east



Winter Storm Moses?
more snow coming
Quoting 228. FunnelVortex:
Ugh. I'm sick of these clippers.

I want a big winter storm or blizzard.

Sure, you say that now, but when you get one you probably won't even play with it, let alone clean up after it. :)
Quoting 241. Birthmark:

Sure, you say that now, but when you get one you probably won't even play with it, let alone clean up after it. :)
Sounds like a baby your taking about.
The National Weather Service Refuse to Acknowledge Dumb Winter Storm Names.

This was the title of an article I was reading from last season.
Quoting 241. Birthmark:

Sure, you say that now, but when you get one you probably won't even play with it, let alone clean up after it. :)


Who do you think you're talking too?
In conclusion the weather channel really needs to develop their naming system more.
Quoting 241. Birthmark:

Sure, you say that now, but when you get one you probably won't even play with it, let alone clean up after it. :)
Unlike me being I'm Floridian and we have to travel up north to see a snow storm, I played in it and cleaned up after it, after Suffolk County police came around and warned us about shoveling the snow or else we would have gotten locked up. :P
Quoting 246. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


That band of snow that came through my area and is now over Lake Michigan. TWC named it. For no reason.
Quoting 233. Patrap:
Working on the final page of my 2014 McTavish Numbers.
:D Oh yeah I remember that, PLANFALF Model always has it hitting Charleston, SC. :D :D
Quoting 247. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Unlike me being I'm Floridian and we have to travel up north to see a snow storm, I played in it and cleaned up after it, after Suffolk County police came around and warned us about shoveling the snow or else we would have gotten locked up. :P


we got same rule in Toronto all sidwalks walkways driveways must be cleared and free of ice 12 hrs after a storm if not fines for homeownwers start at 120 dollars

high rise building owners superintendents can get up too a 1000 dollar fine property management can get up to a 10000 fine

and city will send in a clean up crew to clean your property and bill ya on top of your fine as well

Quoting 248. FunnelVortex:


That band of snow that came through my area and is now over Lake Michigan. TWC named it. For no reason.
its to bomb out once its just off east coast tracking towards nova scotia



A winter storm approaches Mainland Nova Scotia for Tuesday night and continues into Wednesday.

A low pressure system will develop near Cape Cod on Tuesday and track northeastward towards Nova Scotia Tuesday night. This storm will bring snow for most of Mainland Nova Scotia beginning Tuesday evening over southwestern areas with a change over to rain along the Atlantic coastline overnight.

Snowfall amounts of 10 to 15 centimetres is expected over southwestern areas with amounts near 5 centimetres for Northern Nova Scotia by Wednesday morning. The snow will persist throughout much of Wednesday as the storm moves towards Newfoundland with further snowfall amounts possible on Wednesday.

Those planning travel or other weather sensitive activities on Wednesday are advised to monitor the forecast and road conditions before travelling.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.

In the RGB image, surface snow and ice (as well as glaciated cloud tops) appear as varying shades of red in contrast, supercooled water droplet clouds appear as shades of white.

Quoting 252. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its to bomb out once its just off east coast tracking towards nova scotia



A winter storm approaches Mainland Nova Scotia for Tuesday night and continues into Wednesday.

A low pressure system will develop near Cape Cod on Tuesday and track northeastward towards Nova Scotia Tuesday night. This storm will bring snow for most of Mainland Nova Scotia beginning Tuesday evening over southwestern areas with a change over to rain along the Atlantic coastline overnight.

Snowfall amounts of 10 to 15 centimetres is expected over southwestern areas with amounts near 5 centimetres for Northern Nova Scotia by Wednesday morning. The snow will persist throughout much of Wednesday as the storm moves towards Newfoundland with further snowfall amounts possible on Wednesday.

Those planning travel or other weather sensitive activities on Wednesday are advised to monitor the forecast and road conditions before travelling.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.



It's not gonna bomb out in time to affect the US (the country where TWC airs) severely though. Why name it?
Quoting 245. FunnelVortex:
In conclusion the weather channel really needs to develop their naming system more.


Torcon index for tornadoes. Names for winter systems.
What else will they come up with?
Quoting 205. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Finals week was last week here. Glad it's over with.


Two weeks for me, but AMEN.
257. ARiot
anyone up to date on the little clipper coming through the mid-Atlantic?

WU says 1 inch tonight and up to one inch in AM for my area at the top of the bay in Maryland.

I guess those are max numbers. I didn't expect any where near an inch, based on the local mets calls.
Quoting 254. FunnelVortex:


It's not gonna bomb out in time to affect the US (the country where TWC airs) severely though. Why name it?
its a clipper those things do weird things sometimes

they are calling for 5 cm for my area from it that's just over 2.5 inches on the American scale
Quoting 250. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


we got same rule in Toronto all sidwalks walkways driveways must be cleared and free of ice 12 hrs after a storm if not fines for homeownwers start at 120 dollars

high rise building owners superintendents can get up too a 1000 dollar fine property management can get up to a 10000 fine

and city will send in a clean up crew to clean your property and bill ya on top of your fine as well

Well I exaggerated about the locked up part, but fines yes, anyways it was during the 2010 Christmas/Boxing Day Nor'Easter. That was so fun, I was outside playing around in it as the storm was coming through.
Chicago

22.1F

Light Snow

Quoting 230. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


greatest super cell threat

Yep. Tomorrow we should have a handle on this system as far as any severe threat.
Quoting 250. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


we got same rule in Toronto all sidwalks walkways driveways must be cleared and free of ice 12 hrs after a storm if not fines for homeownwers start at 120 dollars

high rise building owners superintendents can get up too a 1000 dollar fine property management can get up to a 10000 fine

and city will send in a clean up crew to clean your property and bill ya on top of your fine as well


What if one is on vacation?
Weather History for Cunderdin Airfield WE, WesternAustralia

Monday, December 16, 2013 — View Current Weather Conditions


DailyWeeklyMonthlyCustom
Actual Average Record

Temperature

Mean Temperature 88 °F -

Max Temperature 111 °F - - ()

Min Temperature 66 °F - - ()
Cooling Degree Days 22
Growing Degree Days 38 (Base 50)
Quoting 263. Birthmark:

What if one is on vacation?
not to worry the city will clean it for ya I think after 3 days

and they will leave ya a note in the mailbox for ya as well
Quoting 227. GeorgiaStormz:


The negative tilt is briefly in the shortwave



It is gone after that

That's why there is a window, and not a progressive event.
Quoting 257. ARiot:
anyone up to date on the little clipper coming through the mid-Atlantic?

WU says 1 inch tonight and up to one inch in AM for my area at the top of the bay in Maryland.

I guess those are max numbers. I didn't expect any where near an inch, based on the local mets calls.


One inch tonight, one to two inches tomorrow in MD and WV east of Garrett Co. In far western MD in the mountains, it is 1-3 tonight and another 1-2 tomorrow. I am getting tired of snow already, and it isn't Christmas yet.
Quoting 228. FunnelVortex:
Ugh. I'm sick of these clippers.

I want a big winter storm or blizzard.

Well, if you believe the ECMWF, then somebody is going to get a historic snowfall. :D

I doubt, however, that this verifies.
Quoting 268. wxchaser97:

Well, if you believe the ECMWF, then somebody is going to get a historic snowfall. :D

I doubt, however, that this verifies.


Someone let me know when the City Of Wausau is in the sights of a big storm/blizzard.

The ECMWF is showing me with another pathetic light snow there.
Quoting 268. wxchaser97:

Well, if you believe the ECMWF, then somebody is going to get a historic snowfall. :D

I doubt, however, that this verifies.


That isn't from one storm. That map is showing total snow accumulation from 12Z 12/16 through 12Z 12/23, so about a weeks worth of snow.
I didn't know it but NOAA ranks snowstorms with a numbered system.

SNOWFALL IMPACT SCALE
DERIVED FROM NORTHEAST STORM
SNOWFALL DISTRIBUTIONS


1 = notable
2 = significant
3 = major
4 = crippling
5 = Extreme

I like that. It's like the system for hurricanes.
You could have a category 3, snowstorm. That would let people know how severe the winter storm is forecast to be.

Giving every winter system a name (without specific strength information) doesn't tell people how severe the storm is going to be.
Quoting 270. Chucktown:


That isn't from one storm. That map is showing total snow accumulation from 12Z 12/16 through 12Z 12/23, so about a weeks worth of snow.

I'm pretty sure most of that snow comes from one storm, as neither these clippers or the Thursday-Friday storm are supposed to lay down much snow.
Quoting 268. wxchaser97:

Well, if you believe the ECMWF, then somebody is going to get a historic snowfall. :D

I doubt, however, that this verifies.
Most of it is later this week if I remember correctly from looking up earlier today.
Example from pervious post. March 12th 1993 storm was a category 5 on the snowstorm impact scale.
Quoting 272. wxchaser97:

I'm pretty sure most of that snow comes from one storm, as neither these clippers or the Thursday-Friday storm are supposed to lay down much snow.


Sure about that? Tomorrows and Wednesday's clipper will produce a significant 6-12 inch snowfall downeast Maine and a solid 3-5 through the Poconos, Catskills, and Bershires.

Link

Link
Quoting 275. Chucktown:


Sure about that? Tomorrows and Wednesday's clipper will produce a significant 6-12 inch snowfall downeast Maine and a solid 3-5 through the Poconos, Catskills, and Bershires.

Link

Link

I was talking about Michigan, which won't get much significant snow from the clippers.

Although I understand that NASA also recorded the lowest temperature in history this year in Antarctica?

A single day measurement in a bowl on top of the Transantarctic Mountains some of which rise 14,800 ft above sea level.

Meanwhile at the South Pole station >


Another month at the South Pole. Another month of record high temperatures at the bottom of the world.

The 2013 winter – the months of June, July and August – will already go down as the warmest such season at the South Pole since records began in 1957. That trend continued into September – now the warmest on record – with four new daily maximum record temperatures falling in the middle of the month.

“Saying that it has been a warm winter this year is a bit of an understatement at this point,” said Phillip Marzette, senior meteorologist at the South Pole Station .

Link
McMurdo Station Webcams usap.gov


December 17, 2013 10:05 AM GMT

Temperature 0 C 32 F
Wind Chill -4 C 24 F
Wind Speed 8 knots
Air Pressure 29.11 inches
Quoting 278. ColoradoBob1:

Although I understand that NASA also recorded the lowest temperature in history this year in Antarctica?

A single day measurement in a bowl on top of the Transantarctic Mountains some of which rise 14,800 ft above sea level.

Meanwhile at the South Pole station >


Another month at the South Pole. Another month of record high temperatures at the bottom of the world.

The 2013 winter – the months of June, July and August – will already go down as the warmest such season at the South Pole since records began in 1957. That trend continued into September – now the warmest on record – with four new daily maximum record temperatures falling in the middle of the month.

“Saying that it has been a warm winter this year is a bit of an understatement at this point,” said Phillip Marzette, senior meteorologist at the South Pole Station .

Link


looks pretty mild to me
Hi everyone, Can I please have some cold weather in Spring Hill FL. for Christmas eve? I have six daughters, five son in laws and seventeen grandkids coming. I will be cooking a
lot! I wish I could have some snow flurries here on that day! It sure gets hot in the kitchen:)
Wuvs ya all!
I hope everyone has a wonderful holiday season!
Quoting 278. ColoradoBob1:

Although I understand that NASA also recorded the lowest temperature in history this year in Antarctica?

A single day measurement in a bowl on top of the Transantarctic Mountains some of which rise 14,800 ft above sea level.

Meanwhile at the South Pole station >


Another month at the South Pole. Another month of record high temperatures at the bottom of the world.

The 2013 winter – the months of June, July and August – will already go down as the warmest such season at the South Pole since records began in 1957. That trend continued into September – now the warmest on record – with four new daily maximum record temperatures falling in the middle of the month.

“Saying that it has been a warm winter this year is a bit of an understatement at this point,” said Phillip Marzette, senior meteorologist at the South Pole Station .

Link

The NASA satellite-derived estimate was very overblown on a number of fronts.
RAP 21Z RUN HR 1-18 SIM RAD

Quoting 286. mermaidlaw:
Hi everyone, Can I please have some cold weather in Spring Hill FL. for Christmas eve? I have six daughters, five son in laws and seventeen grandkids coming. I will be cooking a
lot! I wish I could have some snow flurries here on that day! It sure gets hot in the kitchen:)
Wuvs ya all!
I hope everyone has a wonderful holiday season!


60's Christmas eve evening
Christmas morning sunrise low 50's

that good

sorry snow flurries are kinda not likely for now
Quoting 286. mermaidlaw:
Hi everyone, Can I please have some cold weather in Spring Hill FL. for Christmas eve? I have six daughters, five son in laws and seventeen grandkids coming. I will be cooking a
lot! I wish I could have some snow flurries here on that day! It sure gets hot in the kitchen:)
Wuvs ya all!
I hope everyone has a wonderful holiday season!


I was at Spring Lake for the 83 freeze.. moved back east and south :)
Quoting 287. ScottLincoln:

The NASA satellite-derived estimate was very overblown on a number of fronts.


The 4 month string new all time records at the South Pole station was not . Since they were all set in the dark.
From the Miami NWS Disco...:(

THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP THE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. LOWS EACH NIGHT SHOULD BE RUNNING IN THE
60S...EXCEPT LOWER TO MID 70S EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THESE LOWS
WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE HIGHS WILL ALSO BE RUNNING IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WHICH
IS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE HEAT INDEX COULD EVEN GET UP INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
THIS WEEKEND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
GFS is showing highs near 85 next week around Tampa. Not heat index mind you, actual temperature.
UGH Forsaken, I sure was hoping for cool weather!
Hey Keeper, what local time will it start snowing? Thx!
Quoting 292. GeoffreyWPB:
From the Miami NWS Disco...:(

THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP THE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. LOWS EACH NIGHT SHOULD BE RUNNING IN THE
60S...EXCEPT LOWER TO MID 70S EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THESE LOWS
WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE HIGHS WILL ALSO BE RUNNING IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WHICH
IS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE HEAT INDEX COULD EVEN GET UP INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
THIS WEEKEND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
It's been similarly unseasonably warm here, with no relief in sight. We've got a FROPA going on, which, it seems, will result in some rain, a temporary wind shift, and right back to overnight lows in the low 70s. Makes me wonder if I should invest in a scarf and gloves for January...
Quoting 292. GeoffreyWPB:
From the Miami NWS Disco...:(

THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP THE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. LOWS EACH NIGHT SHOULD BE RUNNING IN THE
60S...EXCEPT LOWER TO MID 70S EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THESE LOWS
WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE HIGHS WILL ALSO BE RUNNING IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WHICH
IS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE HEAT INDEX COULD EVEN GET UP INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
THIS WEEKEND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.


This heat is getting old.
Evening BahaHurican et al

I plan to be at the Marina tomorrow when these folks arrive after Kite Boarding across the atlantic. Each Kite Boarder takes a two hour shift and they sail throughout the night, in the company of their support boat.

http://enablepassion.com

Pretty amazing
Quoting 297. Grothar:


This heat is getting old.


Send it over here, ya can scrape off the humidity though.
Was 81.7 here today and is still warm.....

Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 5:11 PM PST on December 16, 2013
Mostly Cloudy
76.1 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 14%
Dew Point: 23 °F

Wind: 10.0 mph from the SSE
Wind Gust: 21.0 mph
Well, this looks exciting (or alarming, depending on your point of view).



Looking at it from a Texas perspective, that's a setup that is usually seen a few hundred miles further north...and in May.
I hope that storm and cold air is timed right so I could see some snow on the ground come Christmas.
CWG says we'll see some flakes tomorrow but nothing major.
Link
Quoting 297. Grothar:


This heat is getting old.


Quoting 295. hurricanehunter5753:
Hey Keeper, what local time will it start snowing? Thx!
got to know your general area to tell ya that
Hi everyone, Can I please have some cold weather in Spring Hill FL. for Christmas eve? I have six daughters, five son in laws and seventeen grandkids coming. I will be cooking a
lot! I wish I could have some snow flurries here on that day! It sure gets hot in the kitchen:)
Wuvs ya all!
I hope everyone has a wonderful holiday season
!



MERMAID!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting 305. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
got to know your general area to tell ya that
That would be North York.
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #4
TROPICAL LOW 03U
8:46 AM WST December 17 2013
============================================

At 7:00 AM WST, Tropical Low (1002 hPa) located at 8.6S 97.9E or 415 km north northeast of Cocos Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving southwest at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/D0.5/12 HRS

The low is moving southwest and may develop into a tropical cyclone on Wednesday as it passes to the northwest of Cocos Islands.

GALES are not expected on the Cocos Islands during Tuesday, however GALES with gusts to 100 km/h are possible during Wednesday and may persist into Thursday morning.

Heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected to increase later Tuesday as the system moves closer. Depending on the movement of the low, the rain and thunderstorms should continue through Wednesday then ease on Thursday.

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS 9.0S 97.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 10.2S 96.7E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS 12.2S 94.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 13.6S 90.9E - 65 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
=========================
The low has been located by animated satellite imagery over the last 6 hours and a recent microwave pass. However, due to the broad circulation there is some uncertainty as to its exact position.

The system has recently moved southwest and this motion is expected to continue until Wednesday when a more westerly motion is indicated by the models. While the current position is uncertain, there is a reasonable amount of confidence in the forecast motion as there is strong agreement between the models.

Shear is light to moderate [10 to 20 knots] and this is expected to persist making development into a tropical cyclone likely in the next 24 to 35 hours. Model guidance indicates the system strengthens and 90% or greater of the EC ensemble members have a greater than 34 knot system during Thursday and Friday.

Current intensity is based on scatterometer winds. Some curved banding is evident on the 2230 UTC IR image and a DT of 1.5 to 2.0 is possible based on a wrap of 0.3. The forecast intensity is based on conditions being favorable. sea surface temperatures are high and there is no dry air expected to effect the system.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
====================================
A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for the Cocos Islands
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE AMARA (02-20132014)
4:30 AM RET December 17 2013
============================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Amara (995 hPa) located at 15.8S 72.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 4 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
30 NM radius from the center in western semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
========================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 95 NM in the northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS 15.8S 71.2E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS 15.8S 69.9E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS 15.9S 67.2E - 75 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS 16.2S 63.8E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
==========================
The system has changed little in organization over the past 6 hours based on ir imagery. The center is embedded within the deep convection, but this thunderstorm activity is still rather fluctuating and without a clear cut cloud pattern ...so far. TRMM pass at 2044z show that the low level microwave pattern is still improving. Current intensity is in good agreement with all latest Dvorak estimates from PGTW and KNES (2330 PM UTC).

During the next 3 to 4 days, the system should continue moving generally westwards, under the steering influence of the subtropical high pressures. A weakness of the ridge should leave the system within a weak steering environment, that will cause a slow down of the forward motion until Wednesday. From Thursday, a subtropical ridge located to the south-east of the system, tends to built westwards, allowing the system to slightly accelerate ... most likely still on a westwards track. Saturday, an upper to mid-level trough is forecast to pass to the south of the system. As the subtropical ridge is expected to weaken by that time, a significant slow down of the forward motion should occur. The impact of this trough on the track (in term of direction mainly) at this extended lead time (day 5) is, today, mostly unknown, depending on the exact location of the storm by that time and on the real meridional extension of the trough. Even if the majority of available dynamical aids tend to show a slow southwards motion (and so the current forecast track), the extreme spread on the ECMWF ensemble output (1200z run) mainly from Saturday and beyond still put a low confidence on the track forecast at the extended lead times (day4 / day 5)

The environment becomes gradually more favorable: the shear is weakening, improvement of the upper level divergence with a equatorward channel outflow, sea surface temperatures ranging from 27C to 28C and no dry air that could wrap into the circulation. Environmental conditions could even be conducive for rapid intensification Wednesday as a dual channel outflow pattern (one to the north and one to the southeast) can be seen on ECMWF 200 MB winds charts. At the extended lead times, if the quasi-stationary motion occurs, a weakening trend due to tropical cyclone self-induced up-welling is possible.
I visited my grandparents in Sanford, but I also stopped by Lowe's and Tractor Supply Company as well. If you don't remember, both stores were destroyed by high end EF3 tornado on April 16, 2011 that eventually hit Raleigh 40 miles northeast. Lowe's took the charge in rebuilding the area including a brand new store that opened few months after the tornado while Tractor Supply Company took almost a year and half to rebuild their store. The area behind Tractor Supply Company was the site of mass destruction from this tornado including couple of fatalities. I did visited the damaged area with my grandfather few weeks after the tornado, but my pictures is now gone because my old laptop without backup died. I had memories of going to the old Lowe's store to help my grandfather with the wood few months before tornado took the store down. Small world, right? I took two pictures on the right side just today to show y'all how Sanford is one strong Southern town. That day helps me decided to become a meteorologist one day over other interests I had.

Quoting 308. hurricanehunter5753:
That would be North York.

North York, PA???
Quoting 301. 1900hurricane:
Well, this looks exciting (or alarming, depending on your point of view).



Looking at it from a Texas perspective, that's a setup that is usually seen a few hundred miles further north...and in May.


SE TX may start off the severe weather outbreak
Quoting 63. StormTrackerScott:
Here some pics of the tornado damage north of me Saturday & Saturday night.






I'm far from qualified for giving a tornado damage survey, but that looks like solid EF1 damage, I'd have to see worse damage to homes before I would think any worse though.
Quoting 314. Jedkins01:


I'm far from qualified for giving a tornado damage survey, but that looks like solid EF1 damage, I'd have to see worse damage to homes before I would think any worse though.

Was rated a 95-105 mph EF1.
We just took a walk and the moon is so bright it looks like a flood light. There is also a large halo around it.
Assuming model solutions remain relatively unchanged the next few days, it looks like a significant severe weather event may be setting up for eastern Texas on Saturday. Plenty of moisture, plenty of instability, shear is strong. One could question how favorable the wind directions are (S at 1000-850mb, SSW at 500mb), but it would suffice given the other parameters. Very high Storm Relative Helicity.

There seems to be a pattern of getting a major severe weather outbreak in the final week of December the past few years.
Full Moon Today. Let me go check that out.

Edit... Yes that is very Nice big Halo...
Meteorologists on WeatherBrains talked about a survey about El Reno tornado from earlier this year for storm chasers to do... interesting project going on.

http://el-reno-survey.net/

EDIT: Meteorologists on WeatherBrains are giving that project a very high praise.
Quoting 316. Grothar:
We just took a walk and the moon is so bright it looks like a flood light. There is also a large halo around it.


Interesting life you have there Gro, I can't seem to think of a light and funny pun for you.
Followup: Sea stars (starfish) still dying, still mysteriously

Link

2 days ago off Seattle, watch the clip, and tell me that's not a dying ocean.
I forgot about weatherbrains tonight.
Quoting 318. PedleyCA:
Full Moon Today. Let me go check that out.

Edit... Yes that is very Nice big Halo...


Edit: Forget about the halo. It was our neighbor's Christmas display with an angel in it. Kind of took me back for a minute.
Quoting 321. ColoradoBob1:
Followup: Sea stars (starfish) still dying, still mysteriously

Link

2 days ago off Seattle, watch the clip, and tell me that's not a dying ocean.


There is also a big kill on the east coast. I can't find the link.
Oh em gee. Gro is back. Hi, Grothar!
Star fish kills link



Link
Quoting 325. MississippiWx:
Oh em gee. Gro is back. Hi, Grothar!
And you're back after like a month or two, lol.
Hey Gro! It's very nice to see you on the blog :) I know that you have been on the blog for at least a week or two now but I have never had the time to say hello. How has your life been?
Quoting 325. MississippiWx:
Oh em gee. Gro is back. Hi, Grothar!


Hey, MW. Not back for good. Just dropping in between seasons.
Quoting 327. Bluestorm5:
And you're back after like a month or two, lol.


Yeah, briefly, I guess. The weather gets lame around here for the most part this time of the year unless a severe wx episode comes up. This weekend looks interesting for sure anywhere from East Texas to Mississippi or West Alabama. Not really thinking a major outbreak will happen, but the system certainly bears watching. Even without a full negative tilt, it could be a decent severe wx producer. Plenty of time to model watch.
Quoting 330. Tornado6042008X:
Hey Gro! It's very nice to see you on the blog :) I know that you have been on the blog for at least a week or two now but I have never had the time to say hello. How has your life been?


Actually, miserable. How about yours?
From a Houston-Galveston discussion:

INGREDIENTS FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS LOOK LIKE A POSSIBILITY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN HERE AND N TX DEPENDING UPON HOW FINER DETAILS PLAY OUT. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS AS THIS S/W MIGHT TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT APPROACHES N TX LATE SAT WITH OTHER FAVORABLE PARAMETERS IN PLACE (SFC BOUNDARY, STRONG LLVL JET, RRQ OF UPPER JET, LOW LI`S, ETC, ETC). BEST CHANCES LOOK TO OCCUR JUST N OF SE TX ATTM BUT WE`RE STILL TALKING SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND MODEL GUESSES ARE BOUND TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
Quoting 286. mermaidlaw:
Hi everyone, Can I please have some cold weather in Spring Hill FL. for Christmas eve? I have six daughters, five son in laws and seventeen grandkids coming. I will be cooking a
lot! I wish I could have some snow flurries here on that day! It sure gets hot in the kitchen:)
Wuvs ya all!
I hope everyone has a wonderful holiday season!


Parents lived in Fort Myers early 80s. December 1981 started off cool and my mother decided to prepare a goose for Christmas dinner.

Christmas itself though was hot and humid. The goose took too long to cook, house got hot(ter) and in the heat goose was not as appealing as it had been a few (cool) days prior. I thought it was okay but did note the fat did not solidify as it usually does at room temperature.

She told stories about that goose for the rest of her years.
The pill tray is coming around. Got to go.
Quoting 333. Grothar:


Actually, miserable. How about yours?
funny guy you
Quoting 335. georgevandenberghe:


Parents lived in Fort Myers early 80s. December 1981 started off cool and my mother decided to prepare a goose for Christmas dinner.

Christmas itself though was hot and humid. The goose took too long to cook, house got hot(ter) and in the heat goose was not as appealing as it had been a few (cool) days prior. I thought it was okay but did note the fat did not solidify as it usually does at room temperature.

She told stories about that goose for the rest of her years.


A good goose is hard to find.
That arctic blast keeps getting delayed.
:(
Edit: Used to be scheduled for this weekend, now nowhere in sight.

Quoting 303. washingtonian115:
I hope that storm and cold air is timed right so I could see some snow on the ground come Christmas.
CWG says we'll see some flakes tomorrow but nothing major.
Link


Big warmup is coming first. January and February are snowier than December here in DC.. hope for that. The only really reliably snowy months here are the ones with Q in them :-)
Quoting 333. Grothar:


Actually, miserable. How about yours?
Hang tough...Your to young to be jaded..:)
Quoting 321. ColoradoBob1:
Followup: Sea stars (starfish) still dying, still mysteriously

Link

2 days ago off Seattle, watch the clip, and tell me that's not a dying ocean.



ok its not a dead ocean yet
Quoting 335. georgevandenberghe:


Parents lived in Fort Myers early 80s. December 1981 started off cool and my mother decided to prepare a goose for Christmas dinner.

Christmas itself though was hot and humid. The goose took too long to cook, house got hot(ter) and in the heat goose was not as appealing as it had been a few (cool) days prior. I thought it was okay but did note the fat did not solidify as it usually does at room temperature.

She told stories about that goose for the rest of her years.
There was plenty of rough weather for Florida in the early 80,s. We had one episode where the wind was blowing at 35 knots, gusting over 50 for 3 days straight. It caused a considerable amount of damage to many vessels and marinas. I wish I had a video camera back then. I myself did not get one until 89.
Quoting 336. Grothar:
The pill tray is coming around. Got to go.
do they make ya take em dry or do ya get a little water with that
Ravens 15 Lions 10 - lions have the ball and moving to score

Lions 16-Ravens 15 2 point conversion failed. 2:21 left Q4
Quoting 344. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
do they make ya take em dry or do ya get a little water with that


Geritol
Quoting 333. Grothar:


Actually, miserable. How about yours?
My life has been very busy lately finishing up my college applications. Thank God I am on a 16 day winter break from school after this Friday. But it seems like mother nature wants to bring me spring this weekend with temperatures getting into the 60's in my area, Herndon VA.
Special weather statement for
City of Toronto issued

10 cm of snow possible near Lake Ontario overnight through Tuesday morning.

An Alberta clipper with an area of snow is quickly approaching from the northwest and will arrive overnight. Meanwhile a lake effect snow band has developed over Lake Ontario and will move northwest to reach locales near the lakeshore overnight.

This snow band will have areas of briefly heavier snow resulting in total snowfall amounts near 10 cm overnight and into Tuesday morning. Snowfall amounts will drop off quickly to near 2 cm as one heads inland away from the lake.

There is potential for the Tuesday morning commute to be impacted from this event, due to low visibility in heavier snow in the snow band and accumulating snow on untreated roads. Motorists should be prepared for poor winter driving conditions and allow for extra time to reach their destination.

The snow will come to an end by noon Tuesday as the clipper sails away to the east.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended.


Quoting 346. Grothar:


Geritol


yeah I be miserable too

think they give ya a shot of orange juice or somem
Quoting 347. Tornado6042008X:
My life has been very busy lately finishing up my college applications. Thank God I am on a 16 day winter break from school after this Friday. But it seems like mother nature wants to bring me spring this weekend with temperatures getting into the 60's in my area, Herndon VA.


I'm in the same boat. Common App is being a *insert choice word here*. Major technical failures on their part everywhere, its as if the gov't is running the site.
Geritol's bad for most men--we have more iron in our blood than we should.
here comes a little more snow




Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 11:00 PM EST Monday 16 December 2013
Condition:Mainly Clear
Pressure:30.2 inches
Tendency:falling
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:6.1°F
Dewpoint:0.7°F
Humidity:78%
Wind:N 3 mph
Wind Chill: 1
NEW RECORD: The 11pm reading at Bradford, PA of -3F breaks the previous record of 0F set back in 1961.

Evening Gro
Quoting 346. Grothar:


Geritol
This one is good too, Grothar, don't even ask how I know about all these things, my dad used to buy all of these things.

Astrometeor, that would explain the problems perfectly.
Ravens 18- Lions 16 00:43 left in Q4
Quoting 353. Doppler22:
NEW RECORD: The 11pm reading at Bradford, PA of -3°F breaks the previous record of 0°F set back in 1961.


I bet that temperature will jump up as the clouds roll in and the wind turns to the south.
Quoting 357. BaltimoreBrian:


I bet that temperature will jump up as the clouds roll in and the wind turns to the south.

Yeah the NWS said it could have gone lower if the clouds weren't approaching.
I must say that was a lucky kick by the Ravens kicker. Had no business winning that game. Neither team going anywhere this year anyways.
Ravens intercepted a pass. That will do it.

Here is is 69.3F (20:44PST)
OK, Time to Bail - Stay Safe - stay Warm - Be Careful of the ICE (if any)
Ravens have Pats and Bengals next while Dolphins have Bills and Jets.
CPC's Monday update brought Nino region 3.4 down to 0.0C, straight Neutral. Not seeing any trends towards an El Nino despite what the models are forecasting.

Quoting 346. Grothar:


Geritol
CVS has buy one get one free.
Quoting 316. Grothar:
We just took a walk and the moon is so bright it looks like a flood light. There is also a large halo around it.


Uh, Grothar. That is your porch light. You are still in your back yard!
Quoting 368. BaltimoreBrian:
Cockroach farming a booming business in China Used in pharmaceutical products!


......

That's disturbing.
Quoting 369. Astrometeor:


......

That's disturbing.


Good night Astro. Night me. Night blog.
Morning here in Europe and cloudy for a change.
Interesting storm in the Indian ocean,I was watching it last night on the earth wind map thing.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobari c/1000hPa/orthographic=-280.34,-20.65,466

They have named it Amara, it seem to be perfectly circular.
A bit south of the Equator and to the east of Madagascar.
I don't know if anybody else saw it in the middle of the late night sports reports on here?
Good Morning!..45 degrees here by me.....
Quoting 298. CaicosRetiredSailor:
Evening BahaHurican et al

I plan to be at the Marina tomorrow when these folks arrive after Kite Boarding across the atlantic. Each Kite Boarder takes a two hour shift and they sail throughout the night, in the company of their support boat.

http://enablepassion.com

Pretty amazing
That's pretty cool.

Looks like they're almost there...
Good morning to all.
Quoting 326. Grothar:
Star fish kills link



Link
East Coast Story on this
Link
Good morning all. Going outside to see if it's cooled off much. Then I gotta go get ready for work. I'm taking some time off next week so I can enjoy Christmas, but it means getting my "desk cleared" by Friday...

Enjoy your day.
Well the mercury indicates 47 . First day of the season I have to wear long pants. brrrrrrrrr
It's cool out, but still only feels like 71 or so. Airport temp at 5 a.m. was 73. Will see if it cooled off some in the last hour at 6.

I'm eating soup for breakfast... lol ... feeling too lazy this a.m. to cook a real breakfast...
Ha! Airport is now reporting 75 degrees, which is supposed to be the high for today... will be interesting to see if it only gets colder as the day progresses....

I'm out for now. Depending on how hectic it gets later, I may check in during the day.
Special Weather Statement

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
443 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2013

NYZ080-081-178-179-171900-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHERN QUEENS-
SOUTHERN NASSAU-
443 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2013

SNOW WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. TOTAL SNOWFALL IS FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES.

WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AT THE ONSET...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE
ON ANY UNTREATED SURFACES. THIS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS EVEN WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ROAD.
VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO DROP TO BETWEEN 1 AND 2 MILES AND COULD
OCCASIONALLY FALL BELOW ONE MILE. MOTORISTS SHOULD PROCEED WITH
EXTRA CAUTION WHEN ENCOUNTERING THESE CONDITIONS TODAY.

$$
Winter Weather Advisory

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
447 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2013

...MODERATE SNOWFALL OVER MOST OF THE TRI-STATE TUESDAY...

NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-176-171800-
/O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0017.131217T1000Z-131217T2100Z/
WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-
EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-
EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-
447 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
MOST OF NEW YORK CITY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW DEVELOPS TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF THE MORNING
RUSH HOUR...BECOMING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES TOWARDS
THE END OF RUSH HOUR. SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CREATE SLIPPERY ROADWAYS AND
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

Winter Weather Advisory

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
401 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2013

...LIGHT SNOW AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO LEAD TO TRAVEL CONCERNS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE SNOWFALL TO THE ADVISORY
AREA FROM MID MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON. OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES IN MOST AREAS...MAINLY NORTH
OF ROUTE 6. AS THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH. THIS
WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE FRESHLY FALLEN
SNOW AND ALREADY EXISTING SNOW PACK IN MAINLY RURAL AREAS.
SECONDARY AND SOME PRIMARY ROADS COULD BECOME PARTIALLY IMPASSABLE
IN SPOTS DUE TO THE DRIFTING SNOW AS WELL AS LOCALLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN STRONGER WIND GUSTS DUE TO BLOWING. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...BUT SOME DRIFTING SNOW COULD LINGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 36 degrees with a wind chill of 35. By the day after tomorrow it's supposed to be in the mid seventies.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: creamed chipped beef over biscuits, Cajun Breakfast Casserole, Apple-Pecan Baked Oatmeal, Green Chili Breakfast Burrito Casserole, Nutty Buckwheat Buttermilk Pancakes, fluffy biscuits with sausage gravy, Cinnamon Pecan Rolls, Pumpkin Pie Coffee Cake with Pecan Crumble, Spinach & Dubliner Cheese Egg Cups, cinnamon oatmeal with bruleed Bananas, Red-Pepper omelet, Sausage Strata, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Peppermint White Hot Chocolate, regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side along with crushed peppermint to add to your coffee if you like to try it. It's delicious! Enjoy!
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 36 degrees with a wind chill of 35. By the day after tomorrow it's supposed to be in the mid seventies.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: creamed chipped beef over biscuits, Cajun Breakfast Casserole, Apple-Pecan Baked Oatmeal, Green Chili Breakfast Burrito Casserole, Nutty Buckwheat Buttermilk Pancakes, fluffy biscuits with sausage gravy, Cinnamon Pecan Rolls, Pumpkin Pie Coffee Cake with Pecan Crumble, Spinach & Dubliner Cheese Egg Cups, cinnamon oatmeal with bruleed Bananas, Red-Pepper omelet, Sausage Strata, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Peppermint White Hot Chocolate, regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side along with crushed peppermint to add to your coffee if you like to try it. It's delicious! Enjoy!

Aaaahh%u2026.
Delcious !

Nothing like a Proper Breakfast on a Clear, Cold, Winter morning.
Got down to 75 this morning early. Brrrr !
Had to haul the blanket up to my chinny-chin-chin.
Even put on a T-Shirt for a while when I got up.

Isn't Winter lovely ?
Rough Sea Bulletin still in effect here
North and East coasts, waves in open water to 12 feet, with high surf conditions along the coastlines.
-10F here at my house, might get a couple, three inches of snow today.

The moon on the fresh snow is lovely, but does not make for a restful night! May be hitting the coffee at work today.

And thanks, Aislinnpapps, but I think I'll pass on the SOS for breakfast ;)
Baha! You got it goin' on!
Quoting 369. Astrometeor:


......

That's disturbing.


Remind me to never try any Chinese folk remedies.

Or toothepaste.
Henry Margusity Fan Club
I am surprised to see no severe risks out from SPC yet for the storm this weekend. Looks nasty. Flood threat across the TN Valley.
Quoting 391. PensacolaDoug:


Remind me to never try any Chinese folk remedies.

Or toothepaste.


I've been trying to take these little round black pills that my Chinese Acupuncturists gave me.

These little round black pills are supposed to be very good for my kidneys, which he says aren't working properly.

He did give me some tea dating back to the 15th century and it cured my stomach pain (in 1 day) I'd been dealing with for a couple weeks. I couldn't believe how well it worked.

Morning, Everyone.



Last night, we got a dusting of snow here in MD.
Quoting 342. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



ok its not a dead ocean yet

Our oceans are dying and if our oceans die we die - captain Paul Watson
morning another 2 or 3 inches of snow this am

Quoting 396. hurricaneivan:

Our oceans are dying and if our oceans die we die - captain Paul Watson
well not rightaway we still get to eat each othe first then once that's exhausted then we are gone

mmmm somebody pass me that leg bone
I posted this late yesterday. Giving winter storms categories (1-5) based on their impacts. This is from NOAA website.

Cat 1.Notable

Cat 2.Significant

Cat 3. Major

Cat 4.Crippling

Cat 5. Extreme

Here's an example of a category 5 snowstorm.


What bothers me is TWC names winter systems. A system that gives 1" of snow gets a name just the same as a blizzard. There's no distiquishing the strength of the system with their system.

Maybe TWC could name winter systems and also give them a category based on their strength. I think that would help.
Quoting 399. Sfloridacat5:
I posted this late yesterday. Giving winter storms categories (1-5) based on their impacts. This is from NOAA website.

Cat 1.Notable

Cat 2.Significant

Cat 3. Major

Cat 4.Crippling

Cat 5. Extreme

Here's an example of a category 5 snowstorm.


What bothers me is TWC names winter systems. A system that gives 1" of snow gets a name just the same as a blizzard. There's no distiquishing the strength of the system with their system.

Maybe TWC could name winter systems and also give them a category based on their strength. I think that would help.


or maybe TWC should stop naming storms period..
Quoting 400. ncstorm:


or maybe TWC should stop naming storms period..



I love when twc names winter storms
Quoting 401. Tazmanian:



I love when twc names winter storms


Yeah. Let them keep it. It helps people be more aware of the storm coming anyways.
Quoting 399. Sfloridacat5:
I posted this late yesterday. Giving winter storms categories (1-5) based on their impacts. This is from NOAA website.

Cat 1.Notable

Cat 2.Significant

Cat 3. Major

Cat 4.Crippling

Cat 5. Extreme

Here's an example of a category 5 snowstorm.


What bothers me is TWC names winter systems. A system that gives 1" of snow gets a name just the same as a blizzard. There's no distiquishing the strength of the system with their system.

Maybe TWC could name winter systems and also give them a category based on their strength. I think that would help.


I think Blizzard strength starts at 34 MPH sustained. Or is it higher?
warm air so close but yet far away

Quoting 400. ncstorm:


or maybe TWC should stop naming storms period..


Ding Ding
By just giving a system a name without some sort of system to determine its strength is worthless.

That's why tropical systems have categories to inform the public of the storm's strength.
T.D.
T.S.
Hurricane (cat 1-5)

Quoting 368. BaltimoreBrian:
Cockroach farming a booming business in China Used in pharmaceutical products!


Oh goodness....
Quoting 405. Sfloridacat5:



Ding Ding
By just giving a system a name without some sort of system to determine its strength, it's worthless.

That why tropical systems have categories to inform the public of the storm's strength.
T.D.
T.S.
Hurricane (cat 1-5)


Quoting 403. FunnelVortex:


I think Blizzard strength starts at 34 MPH sustained. Or is it higher?


Wiki
A blizzard is a severe snowstorm characterized by strong sustained winds of at least 56 km/h (35 mph) and lasting for a prolonged period of time %u2014 typically three hours or more. A severe blizzard has winds over 72 km/h (45 mph), near zero visibility, and temperatures of %u221212 %uFFFDC () or lower. A ground blizzard is a weather condition where snow is not falling but loose snow on the ground is lifted and blown by strong winds

I like calling a storm a "Blizzard."
That's a lot better than calling it Winter Storm Mary, which means nothing to most people.
Quoting 405. Sfloridacat5:


Ding Ding
By just giving a system a name without some sort of system to determine its strength is worthless.

That why tropical systems have categories to inform the public of the storm's strength.
T.D.
T.S.
Hurricane (cat 1-5)



I personally like to classify and track winter storms under my own personal system.

Behold, the FunnelVortex Winter System.

Winter low- 0-14 MPH, 1-3"
Winter storm- 15-30 MPH, 4-8"
Major winter storm- anything that produces 8+" but does not meet wind requirements.
Blizzard- 30-45 MPH, 8-10+"
Major Blizzard- 45+ MPH, 10+"

Double Post.

Amara:

Quoting 408. FunnelVortex:


I personally like to classify and track winter storms under my own personal system.

Behold, the FunnelVortex Winter System.

Winter low- 0-14 MPH, 1-3"
Winter storm- 15-30 MPH, 4-8"
Major winter storm- anything that produces 8 " but does not meet wind requirements.
Blizzard- 30-45 MPH, 8-10 "
Major Blizzard- 45 MPH, 10 "



That I like.
Luckily the National Weather Service refuses to name winter storms.
They continue to use the system we all know.
Winter Storm Advisories
Winter Storm Watch
Winter Storm Warning
Blizzard Watch and Warnings


94S is looking more like a TS every hour.


Quoting 387. pottery:

Aaaahh%u2026.
Delcious !

Nothing like a Proper Breakfast on a Clear, Cold, Winter morning.
Got down to 75 this morning early. Brrrr !
Had to haul the blanket up to my chinny-chin-chin.
Even put on a T-Shirt for a while when I got up.

Isn't Winter lovely ?
Ayup! Had to exchange the thin T-shirt for the thick T-shirt... lol...

Quoting 390. PensacolaDoug:
Baha! You got it goin' on!
LOL... well, soup is supposed to be cold wx food... maybe I'll get some cold wx to go along with the soup... :o)

Quoting 411. Sfloridacat5:


That I like.
Luckily the National Weather Service refuses to name winter storms.
They continue to use the system we all know.
Winter Storm Watch
Winter Storm Warning
Winter Storm Advisories



Yeah, maybe I should come up with my own naming system too. Just for the heck of it.

Because TWC's system is clearly broken...
Tomorrow's TCFP for the Indian Ocean.

A mess of blobs are all partying down there.

GFS 87 hours.

Interesting feature at 30N 20W.

its snowing in the northeast again
Quoting 418. hurricanes2018:
its snowing in the northeast again


yea, flurries here in MD... too light for the radar to pick up, however.

See.. Nothing where the marker is.

420. NCstu
my winter storm naming system is:

Winter weather of some sort - "Something to do with snow happening somewhere else"
Quoting 414. FunnelVortex:


Yeah, maybe I should come up with my own naming system too. Just for the heck of it.

Because TWC's system is clearly broken...


I bet TWC changes their system or gives their named storms categories.

I have noticed that TWC has recently started using a system similar to the Torcon Index for tornadoes.
Along with naming the Winter Systems they give Index numbers for specific regions (like they do for tornadoes).
I think they've been listening to me.
This is one county above me...

... Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 10 am EST this
morning...

* locations... the Susquehanna valley and east-central mountains.

* Hazard types... snow.

* Accumulations... around one inch of additional snow.

* Timing... periods of light snow will come to an end by early
afternoon. However... most of the accumulation will be over by
late morning.

* Impacts... snow covered roads and hazardous travel.

* Temperatures... in the lower 20s.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Hazardous winter weather conditions are expected or occurring.
Use caution if traveling. For the latest weather information... go
to weather.Gov/ctp or stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio.

Report snow or ice accumulation to the National Weather Service
State College by sending an email to ctp.Stormreports@noaa.Gov...
posting to the NWS State College facebook Page... or tweet
@nwsstatecollege with the hashtag #ctpwx.


423. NCstu
The 5 day track for Amara is pretty awesome. Watch out Mauritius... err wait I mean Yemen!
Quoting 423. NCstu:
The 5 day track for Amara is pretty awesome. Watch out Mauritius... err wait I mean Yemen!


Haha... glitch xD


The issue was whoever made this forgot to put a negative sign in front of the 16 degree mark... making it go to positive 16 instead of -16.

Cat 1 - light dusting -can still see the grass
Cat 2 - can no longer see grass can make snowballs
Cat 3 - covers ground fully and can make snowman.
Cat 4 - can't find my car because the snow is so deep.
Cat 5 - Ice Age has set in.
Quoting 421. Sfloridacat5:


I bet TWC changes their system or gives their named storms categories.

I have noticed that TWC has recently started using a system similar to the Torcon Index for tornadoes.
Along with naming the Winter Systems they give Index numbers for specific regions (like they do for tornadoes).
I think they've been listening to me.


Well, I used to support the naming of winter storms. Then they named a clipper....
Quoting 424. Torito:


Haha... glitch xD



It teleported. lol
Quoting 391. PensacolaDoug:


Remind me to never try any Chinese folk remedies.

Or toothepaste.
yeah after reading that, Im with you on that one..ugh
429. NCstu
Quoting 424. Torito:


Haha... glitch xD



actually it looks like it's headed for Oman. Hmm, Oman? Well they've probably never heard of me either...
Quoting 427. FunnelVortex:


It teleported. lol


The people who make these should check their work to avoid this from happening.... one missed negative sign and the map is all screwy. :P
slow warm-up then another front comes sun-mon.....
Quoting 430. Torito:


The people who make these should check their work to avoid this from happening.... one missed negative sign and the map is all screwy. :P


It could be an error. Or the government did it.
Possibly a lil stormy for Christmas eve..central florida..
if you switch those positives to negatives like they should be.. the path looks like this.

possible wet Christmas for Florida,especially south..
gee Christmas day..stormy in alot of states huh...
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #7
TROPICAL LOW 03U
8:56 PM WST December 17 2013
============================================

At 7:00 PM WST, Tropical Low (998 hPa) located at 9.5S 97.0E or 305 km north of Cocos Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving southwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS

The low is moving southwest and may develop into a tropical cyclone on Wednesday as it passes to the northwest of Cocos Islands.

GALES are not expected on the Cocos Islands during Tuesday evening, however GALES with gusts to 100 km/h may develop during Wednesday morning and may persist into Thursday morning. Gales with gusts to 120 km/h are possible on the Cocos Islands during Wednesday if the system moves closer to the island than expected.

Heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected for the remainder of Tuesday as the system moves closer. Depending on the movement of the low, the rain and thunderstorms should continue through Wednesday then ease on Thursday.

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS 10.4S 96.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 11.4S 95.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 12.7S 92.0E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS 13.9S 88.3E - 75 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
=========================
The low has been located by animated infrared and microwave imagery.

The system has recently moved southwest and this motion is expected to continue during Wednesday. During Thursday a more westerly motion is indicated by the models. There is a reasonable amount of confidence in the forecast motion as there is strong agreement between the models.

Shear is moderate [around 20 knots] however upper winds look favorable for development with good outflow aloft indicated. This makes development into a tropical cyclone likely in the next 12 to 18 hours. Model guidance indicates the system strengthens and 90% or greater of the EC ensemble members have a greater than 34 knot system during Thursday and Friday.

Current intensity is based on Dvorak analysis. Curved banding is evident on recent infrared imagery and a wrap of 0.3 can be obtained giving a DT of around 2.0. The forecast intensity is based on conditions being favorable. Sea surface temperatures are high and there is no dry air expected to effect the system.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
====================================
A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for the Cocos Islands

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE AMARA (02-20132014)
16:30 PM RET December 17 2013
============================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Amara (990 hPa) located at 15.8S 71.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 2 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 40 NM in the southwestern and northeastern quadrant, and up to 50 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
========================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 80 NM in the northwestern quadrant, up to 120 NM in the northeastern quadrant, and up to 150 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS 15.9S 70.8E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS 15.9S 69.6E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS 16.3S 66.2E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS 16.8S 63.1E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
==========================
Satellite feature has improved for the next 06 hours and Amara hows now a curved band wrapping a little bit more than an half tour around. 1010 AM UTC F15 microwave imagery confirms feature's improvement as an eye is forming thanks to 85ghz channel. Amara is a small system rather concentrating with dry air around it that cuts humid air advection equator-ward (refer to tpw map from CIMSS at 0600z). This humid air feeding is therefore indirect and limited to the eastern semi-circle. Despite good environmental conditions with the upper level ridge aloft, Amara has trouble to intensify. We can also notice unfavorable elements with a lack of trade winds inflow and a slow motion. Last scatterometry data (ASCAT 17/0458z and OSCAT 17/0637 AM UTC) reveals that winds structure has changed within the next 24 hours with strongest winds now existing in the eastern semi-circle due to the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures existing in the southeast. In relationship with competing steering flows between southern weak ridge effect and strong monsoon flow, system has clearly slow down within the recent past hours. This weak steering environment is expected to exist until Thursday, system is however expected to keep on moving generally westwards, under the steering influence of the subtropical high pressures. From Thursday, a subtropical ridge located to the southeast of the system, tends to built westwards, allowing the system to slightly accelerate ... most likely still on a westwards track. Saturday, an upper to mid-level trough is forecast to pass to the south of the system. As the subtropical ridge is expected to weaken by that time, a significant slow down of the forward motion should occur. The impact of this trough on the track (in term of direction mainly) at this extended lead time (day 5) is, today, mostly unknown, depending on the exact location of the storm by that time and on the real meridional extension of the trough. Even if the majority of available dynamical numerical weather predictionmodels tend to show a slow southwards motion (and so the current forecast track), the extreme spread on the ECMWF ensemble output (00z run) mainly from Saturday and beyond still put a low confidence on the track forecast at the extended lead times (day4/day 5).

The environment becomes gradually more favorable: the shear is weakening, improvement of the upper level divergence with a equatorward channel outflow, sea surface temperatures ranging from 27C to 28C. Environmental conditions could even be conducive for rapid intensification Wednesday as a dual channels outflow pattern (one to the north and one to the southeast) can be seen on ECMWF 150 MB winds maps. At the extended lead times, if the quasi-stat motion occurs, a weakening trend due to tropical cyclone self-induced up-welling is possible.
One of the most hard-hitting songs I ever heard..phil Collins...Link
Quoting 431. LargoFl:
slow warm-up then another front comes sun-mon.....


Christmas Day forecast is Partly Cloudy with a high near 80 for Fort Myers.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Ayup! Had to exchange the thin T-shirt for the thick T-shirt... lol...

LOL... well, soup is supposed to be cold wx food... maybe I'll get some cold wx to go along with the soup... :o)



Yep. If this keeps up, we gonna have to find our socks……..

Climate Change leads to Clothes Changes.
Who would have thunk it, eh ???
441. ARiot
Quoting 267. goosegirl1:


One inch tonight, one to two inches tomorrow in MD and WV east of Garrett Co. In far western MD in the mountains, it is 1-3 tonight and another 1-2 tomorrow. I am getting tired of snow already, and it isn't Christmas yet.


Yeah I'm in Harford.

Just moved up here but was in MD a few times before over at Ft. Meade.

Was here in the big snow of 2000. Twenty-something inches.

That was epic.

Missed the more recent ones as work had me elsewhere.

We barely have a dusting so far. They did salt the hell out of the roads last night though.
Quoting 439. Sfloridacat5:


Christmas Day forecast is Partly Cloudy with a high near 80 for Fort Myers.

I hope gfs is wrong..alot of folks traveling xmas eve for family get togethers
AMARA TRACK AND SST.



Square colors show pressure readings.
The numbers are track locations by day.
A=Beginning of the cyclone's life.
C=Current Location.
Z=Ending location.

According to this, Amara currently has a pressure reading of around 1000MB and is sitting in water with temperature readings of 26.5 Degrees Celsius. It looks like it will get close to the islands off Madagascar near the beginning of next week.

Currently, maximum wind speeds at the 925MB level are analyzed to be 48KTS, or 55Mph.



Pressure verifies the above chart with a pressure reading of 998.
Amara should develop a very warm and deep core in the near future compared to the moderately warm but somewhat shallow core right now, which can signal strengthening in the cyclone.

Here is the latest true color image of AMARA.
Amara intensity forecast...... Other note.. Slow blog today.


Time   LAT         LON    INTENSITY

0        -15.6        72.2          35
12      -15.6        71.3          40
24      -15.6        69.9          40
36      -15.6        68.6          45
48      -15.7        67.3          50
72      -16.2        64.2          60
96      -16.6        61.9          65
120    -17.2        61.1          70   


Quoting 448. 1900hurricane:


yes its supposed to be one strong front coming..we'll see in a few days if it still verifies about friday.....
Quoting 351. BaltimoreBrian:
Geritol's bad for most men--we have more iron in our blood than we should.


Speak for yourself. I went to the gym to "pump" some iron and all I got was rust.

I don't know why there is such a difference in the forecast models for South Florida. Some show the 80's and others show the 70's.




Both the 00Z ECMWF and 06Z GFS are in pretty good agreement with the setup by 00Z Sunday (6 pm CST Saturday). Potent negative tilt shortwaves like that are always something that has to be watched.



Quoting 448. 1900hurricane:


it comes with a roar
Quoting 436. LargoFl:
gee Christmas day..stormy in alot of states huh...
good stay home and eat turkey for Christmas day
Quoting 453. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
good stay home and eat turkey for Christmas dayQuoting 453. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
good stay home and eat turkey for Christmas day
Christmas meal this year will be Grouper fingers... My grandson caught a very large Red Grouper in Islamorada over Thanksgiving....
Quoting 436. LargoFl:
gee Christmas day..stormy in alot of states huh...


Same thing happened last night. A lot of folks don't "read" these maps correctly. That 192 hr GFS is showing total precip from initialization (6 Z 12/17) through 192 hours. Most of the at precip will occur this weekend with the strong southern stream system. Actually Christmas Day will be very quiet across the US. This is what you should be looking at.

Link
Quoting 450. Grothar:


Speak for yourself. I went to the gym to "pump" some iron and all I got was rust.

I don't know why there is such a difference in the forecast models for South Florida. Some show the 80's and others show the 70's.




I love geritol. I call her Geri for short. We are tying the knot come spring.
Quoting 456. hydrus:
I love geritol. I call her Geri for short. We are tying the knot come spring.
I hear ya hydrus...Now that I am older I have many house plants (And can't smoke any of them)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
GFS, Christmas Day, weather doesn't look too bad across the country.