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Dangerous Category 1 Lehar Headed for India; Wet Winter Storm for U.S. East Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:52 PM GMT on November 25, 2013

Dangerous Category 1 Cyclone Lehar is intensifying as it heads west-northwest at 8 mph towards India's Bay of Bengal coast. Satellite images show that Lehar--which is the Hindustani word for "wave"--has developed a large Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of high cirrus clouds over its center, which is characteristic of intensifying tropical cyclones approaching hurricane strength. With wind shear a moderate 10 - 20 knots and ocean temperatures a very warm 28 - 29°C, Lehar is expected to continue to intensify to a major Category 3 storm until just before landfall, which is expected to occur near 03 UTC Thursday, November 28 in the Andhra Pradesh state of India. This is the same portion of the coast that Cyclone Helen hit on Friday as a tropical storm with 40 mph winds. Helen's heavy rains killed eleven people, caused widespread severe agricultural damage, and left the soils saturated, which will make the rains from Lehar doubly dangerous. Also of concern is the storm surge, which will impact a portion of the coast that is heavily populated and low-lying. The India Meteorological Agency (IMD) is predicting that Lehar will generate a storm surge of up to 1.6 - 2.9 meters (5.2 - 9.5 feet) to the right of where the eye makes landfall.


Figure 1. Cyclone Lehar over the Andaman Islands in the Bay of Bengal at 04:25 UTC November 25, 2013. At the time, Lehar was at Category 1 strength with top winds of 75 mph. Image credit: NASA.

An unusually active tropical cyclone season for India
In addition to Cyclone Helen, India's Bay of Bengal coast also was hit this year by Tropical Cyclone Phailin, a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds, which killed 44 people and did $1.1 billion in damage on October 12, 2013. It's unusual for India to get hit by so many named storms in one year; the last time three or more named storms did so was in 1996, when six storms of at least tropical storm intensity hit. Only four Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones have hit India at hurricane strength since 2000, if we include Cyclone Phailin from 2013. The others were:

Category 1 Cyclone Aila of May 25, 2009, which hit near Kolkata, killing 96, causing $553 million in damage.
Category 1 Cyclone Thane, of December 30, 2011, which hit Southeast India, killing 48, causing $376 million in damage.
Category 1 Cyclone 05B, which hit Southern India on November 29, 2000, killing six.

The last major tropical cyclone to hit the portion of the coast that Lehar is threatening occurred on June 14 1996, when Category 4 Tropical Cyclone 07B struck, killing 731 people. Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a detailed post on India's tropical cyclone history. During the past two centuries, 42 percent of Earth's tropical cyclone-associated deaths have occurred in Bangladesh, and 27 percent have occurred in India (Nicholls, R.J.N., N. Mimura, J.C. Topping, 1995, "Climate change in south and south-east Asia: some implications for coastal areas," J Glob Environ Eng 1995;1:137–54.)


Figure 2. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Monday, December 2, 2013. This week's storm is expected to dump heavy rains of 2+ inches along a long swath of the U.S., from Louisiana to Maine. Image credit: NOAA.

Winter Storm Boreas a heavy rain event for the coast
A powerful and very wet winter storm will slog across the Southeast U.S. Monday and Tuesday and up the Mid-Atlantic coast on Wednesday. The models have come into fair agreement that the storm, dubbed "Boreas", will be a heavy rain event for coastal New England and the Mid-Atlantic, with snow falling inland at higher elevations. The greatest snows of 6+ inches will likely fall on Tuesday through Wednesday in Southwest New York and Northwest Pennsylvania. Pittsburgh and Buffalo are under Winter Storm Watches, and could see 3 - 5" of snow, snarling travel on the busiest travel day of the year.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 482. 1900hurricane:

Very interesting that you should mention the possibility of an arctic outbreak in December, as mid-range ensembles are hinting at the possibility of a cross-polar flow developing as we move into the two week plus range. (from Ryan Maue's twitter)



Now, this is a very long way out and such forecasts have busted spectacularly before, but the prospect is very intriguing and may be something to keep an eye on down the road.




Thanx 1900/ryan, Im gonna save this one.
Quoting 489. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Mid-December 1989 comes up as one of the 500mb analogs via the 18z GFS.


Not to mention a few other days of note (at least for my area).

Quoting 493. washingtonian115:
What does that mean for the east.

It might get cold.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM LEHAR (BOB07-2013)
2:30 AM IST November 26 2013
=====================================

Cyclone Alert for Andhra Pradesh coast (Yellow Alert)

At 21:00 PM UTC, the severe cyclonic storm LEHAR over southeast Bay of Bengal remains practically stationary and intensified into a very severe cyclonic storm over southeast Bay of Bengal near 12.5N 91.0E, about 200 km west northwest of Port Blair, 1100 km east southeast of Machillipatnam, 1050 km east southeast of Kakinada and 980 km southeast of Kalingapatnam.

The system would move west northwestwards and cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Machillipatnam and Kalingapatnam near Kakinada around noon Thursday.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.0. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection is seen over Andaman & Nicobar islands, adjoining Bay of Bengal between 9.0N to 15.5N & 87.5E to 93.5E and Andaman & Nicobar islands. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -89C. The convection has organized into a central dense overcast pattern. There is also a deep convective banding to the north of system center.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 65 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The state of the sea is very high to phenomenal around the center. The central pressure of the very severe cyclonic storm is 984 hPa.

The cyclonic storm LEHAR lies to the south of the upper tropospheric ridge which runs along 16n. The low level convergence along with low level relative vorticity increased during past six hrs and are favorable for further intensification. The sea surface temperature is about 28-29C. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind is low to moderate (10-20 knots). The wind shear is likely to further reduce over southern and central bay helping intensification of the system. The Madden Jullian oscillation index lies over phase 3 with amplitude less than 1. Numerical weather prediction models suggest that Madden Jullian oscillation would continue in phase 3 and 4 during next 5 days with amplitude less than 1. These are supportive for intensification.

The consensus among the numerical weather prediction models has increased with respect to track and intensification up to 60 hours. After 60 hours there is divergence in the numerical weather prediction models track forecast guidance as a few models suggest recurvature of the system towards northeast direction, under the influence of the expected mid latitude westerly trough over north India. The numerical weather prediction models suggest west northwestward to northwestward movement and intensification of the system during this period. However some models suggest slight weakening of system before landfall over Andhra Pradesh. However considering the possible impact of mid latitude westerly trough which roughly runs along 60N to the north of 25N, the forecast track beyond 60 hours increases the northerly component.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 13.5N 88.7E - 65-70 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 14.6N 86.2E - 75-80 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 15.8N 83.6E - 90-100 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS: 17.3N 81.6E - 60-65 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
These guys are usually pretty reliable:

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE ON TUESDAY AND SWING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...WITH A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS STARTING DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS...POSSIBLY A SQUALL LINE...WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH MAY ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO ACQUIRE ROTATION.

THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE OVERNIGHT AS THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT BRINGS A THREAT FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS.

MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA IN MANY LOCATIONS AS WELL AS INLAND LOCATIONS SOUTHWARD THROUGH AT LEAST OSCEOLA COUNTY BY DAYBREAK THANKSGIVING MORNING.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD AND WIND WILL POSSIBLY BRING WIND CHILL READINGS TO THE MID 30S OVER TRADITIONALLY COLDER AREAS BY DAYBREAK ON THANKSGIVING.

I finally got recordings of Tipping points. Can't wait to watch them!


It Is Raining Rocks In Sicily, Italy Mount Etna Volcano Eruption, Volcanic Rocks Rain Down
Quoting 502. 1900hurricane:

Not to mention a few other days of note (at least for my area).


It might get cold.
Should keep spring part two at bay for now.
Sunlinepr - that is just bizarre... thanks for sharing.
The National Institude of Standards and Technology (Dept. of Commerce) released a detailed report on the Joplin, MO, tornado back on November 21st. The current "final draft" report includes a large amount of information and is worth the read for folks interested in technical details about how people survived, why people died, how different buildings were damaged, etc.

This is in additional to reports already issued by the NWS WFO Springfield (initial damage survey), NWS Central Region (service assessment), the American Society of Civil Engineers, and the Structural Engineers Association of Kansas and Missouri.

Some highlights I found interesting:
The estimated population of the portion of the city impacted by the tornado was 20,820. Of the affected area, 155 persons were directly killed from the tornado. 135 inside of structures.95 fatalities in the EF4-5 wind speed range. Approximately 10% of the area experienced EF4-5 winds.

It still seems pretty clear even from these few pieces of information that if you follow the advice for the threat of a tornado impact, the chance of you surviving a EF4-5 tornado is very high.

Sturdy structure, lowest floor, interior room.
510. MahFL
Quoting 506. sunlinepr:


It Is Raining Rocks In Sicily, Italy Mount Etna Volcano Eruption, Volcanic Rocks Rain Down


It's more like lightweight pumice, if it was rocks people would not be using umbrellas.
Quoting 510. MahFL:


It's more like lightweight pumice, if it was rocks people would not be using umbrellas.


Not to split hairs, but I thought Pumice was a rock...
Not incredibly impressive, which is good news considering all the recent monsters this region of the world has been pumping out.
Convection along the pre-frontal trough looks like it may be starting to subside a bit with warming cloud tops, but storms are starting to get more numerous near the warm front and just ahead of the lead shortwave SE of the Mississippi River Delta. The cold front remains dry and one lone storm cell is on the warm front very near the surface low.

Quoting 499. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
NAM 00Z SIM RAD HR36


Squall develops over interior part of state than proceeds east into Eastern metro areas?
Going to get cold!!:)
Wednesday Night
Low of 46F. Winds from the NW at 10 to 15 mph.
Quoting 515. SFLWeatherman:
Going to get cold!!:)
Wednesday Night
Low of 46F. Winds from the NW at 10 to 15 mph.


WHERE?
Loxahatchee,FL!:)
Link

Quoting 516. Dakster:


WHERE?
Quoting 517. SFLWeatherman:
Loxahatchee,FL!:)
Link



I was going to say, not here. It will be chilly for here at 54F overnight, but that still isn't the 40's. (Miami - South Dade)
Quoting 518. Dakster:


I was going to say, not here. It will be chilly for here at 54F overnight, but that still isn't the 40's. (Miami - South Dade)

HR 60 LOOKS TO BE COOLEST
And it's sleeting here at UNCA. Most of it are melting though, so ground could be too warm still. However, this also mean the moisture on ground could freeze later tonight.

KOTG and that graphic shows me still in the 50's...
Quoting 512. CybrTeddy:
Not incredibly impressive, which is good news considering all the recent monsters this region of the world has been pumping out.

I'm impressed by the outflow, particularly to the SW. Looks nice.
Quoting 521. Dakster:
KOTG and that graphic shows me still in the 50's...
that's about as low as it will get rebounds slowly after hr 60
Quoting 489. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Mid-December 1989 comes up as one of the 500mb analogs via the 18z GFS.



funny JB mentioned this yesterday..

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 24 Nov

Number 1 day 11 analog is Dec 21,1983...just before one of most severely cold Christmas's in US history pic.twitter.com/fyt10m6km1

someone wrote on twitter that more than half of the US household pipes would freeze over..

An Astounding 11-15 day ECWMF control OUCH! pic.twitter.com/V0lGpyTfXz
Quoting 523. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
that's about as low as it will get rebounds slowly after hr 60


Thanks... Nice to know -

Did you get snow Today in Toronto?
It is gusty out. I see white caps in my swimming pool.
Washi Precip is getting close with cold air but it depends on how dry it is
530. beell
Vertical ascent at the mid-levels via SW flow in advance of the trough over the eastern western gulf coast on the latest NAM.


11/26 00Z NAM 500 mb Vort-Valid 18Z Tuesday

As the mid-level system moves east, perhaps a slight chance that this flow will back slightly in the mid levels. Which could be somewhat disruptive to deep rotation.

Should be a 100 knot upper level jet streak over SE LA and nosing into the AL/MS border area.


11/26 00Z NAM 200 mb height, winds-Valid 18Z


11/26 00Z NAM 850 mb heights, winds-Valid 18Z


11/25 21Z SREF ML CAPE-Valid 18Z

CAPE nosing a little farther inland than last night's SREF. Fairly impressive dynamics to go with this High Shear/Low CAPE perhaps. Cells may not have time to really get going but it could get interesting early tomorrow afternoon.


531. DDR
Currently raining light with periods of heavy rain inbetween in Trinidad,with 3-5 inches from the 0z gfs over the next 3 days things couldn't get any worse.
Quoting 525. Dakster:


Thanks... Nice to know -

Did you get snow Today in Toronto?
few flurries cold and windy actually milder near or just above freezing but the winds made it feel colder
Our first real cold front approaches the Florida Keys Wed night . I actually welcome it - I've got 6 varieties of heritage tomatoes ready for planting. Take care all

From the KWS NWS discussion

095
FXUS62 KKEY 252051
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
345 PM EST MON NOV 25 2013

...THE INITIAL STRONG COLD FRONT OF THIS AUTUMN SEASON TO SWEEP
THROUGH OUR ENTIRE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...
535. beell
Station 42012 - ORANGE BEACH - 44 NM SE of Mobile, AL

34, gusting to 42 knots.


42012
No snow for south Louisiana, it appears. Surface low too far south. Almost like watching a hurricane.

*seppuku*
Had 1/4" to 1/2" of snow accumulation that fell between 2-4 pm, today. Caught the NWS here completely by surprise.

Location: Nashville.

Snow is evaporating/melting away slowly, temp is at 33, up from 32 just 20 minutes ago.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM LEHAR (BOB07-2013)
5:30 AM IST November 26 2013
=====================================

Cyclone Alert for Andhra Pradesh coast (Yellow Alert)

At 0:00 AM UTC, the very severe cyclonic storm LEHAR over southeast Bay of Bengal moved slightly westward and now lays center near 12.5N 90.5E, about 240 km west northwest of Port Blair, 1100 km east southeast of Machillipatnam, 1000 km east southeast of Kakinada and 940 km southeast of Kalingapatnam.

The system would intensify, move west northwestwards and cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Machillipatnam and Kalingapatnam near Kakinada around noon Thursday.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.0. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection is seen over Andaman & Nicobar islands, adjoining Bay of Bengal between 9.0N to 15.5N and 87.5E to 93.5E and Andaman & Nicobar islands. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -89C. The convection has organized into a central dense overcast pattern. There is also a deep convective banding to the north of system center.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 70 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The state of the sea is high to phenomenal around the center. The central pressure of the very severe cyclonic storm is 982 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
====================
12 HRS: 13.0N 88.8E - 70-75 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 13.9N 87.1E - 85-90 (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 15.5N 83.3E - 90-100 (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS: 17.3N 80.5E - 35-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
Quoting 535. beell:
Station 42012 - ORANGE BEACH - 44 NM SE of Mobile, AL

34, gusting to 42 knots.


42012


We are near gale force as well - probably will exceed it in the next day.
Quoting 536. KoritheMan:
No snow for south Louisiana, it appears. Surface low too far south. Almost like watching a hurricane.

*seppuku*


I had to look that up, eww. At first I was going to go with "self-puke", a little bit off in level of eww.
Quoting 535. beell:
Station 42012 - ORANGE BEACH - 44 NM SE of Mobile, AL

34, gusting to 42 knots.


42012


That doesn't look good for the pies.
Unknown/ice falling here in the higher elevations of Wilkes County, NC.

Cold rain went to chunky sleet, melted then froze, now to freezing rain. Anymore heavier returns will likely send it back to IP.
I'd argue today was probably the most dreary and nasty day I've witnessed since my family moved to the Bahamas 6 years ago.

Ew, never again.

70 degrees (felt like 55), measured 38 knots of wind gusts, and continuous spray from the ocean and rain from clouds mixed together in the air.

No likey.
544. beell
Quoting 541. aquak9:


That doesn't look good for the pies.


Oh well, they didn't have long to live, anyway.
Can't believe I didn't go online the past 2 hours studying calculus... just this exam and I'm done with classes until next semester. Got three exams in first week of December, though. I'll post again when I get back to Raleigh 24 hours from now (my laptop broken). Be safe, y'all.
Quoting 545. Bluestorm5:
Can't believe I didn't go online the past 2 hours studying calculus... just this exam and I'm done with classes until next semester. Got three exams in first week of December, though. I'll post again when I get back to Raleigh 24 hours from now (my laptop broken). Be safe, y'all.


Have fun Kyle, see you later, too.
Hello? Helloooo-o.
Where did everyone go?

Great, it seems as if Kori ran everyone off. Now I'm all alone.

:(
Quoting 547. Astrometeor:
Hello? Helloooo-o.
Where did everyone go?

Great, it seems as if Kori ran everyone off. Now I'm all alone.

:(
I have a knack for running people off with my boundary-less self. :P
Quoting 545. Bluestorm5:
Can't believe I didn't go online the past 2 hours studying calculus... just this exam and I'm done with classes until next semester. Got three exams in first week of December, though. I'll post again when I get back to Raleigh 24 hours from now (my laptop broken). Be safe, y'all.

Have a safe trip.
stonvolcano
Quoting sunlinepr:


It Is Raining Rocks In Sicily, Italy Mount Etna Volcano Eruption, Volcanic Rocks Rain Down
Here's the sad thing ..........
One night in 2010 Natalia Shakhova thought she was doing down. 11 Russian sailors set out to save her. They all died, and she lived.
Quoting 551. ColoradoBob1:
Here's the sad thing ..........
One night in 2010 Natalia Shakhova thought she was doing down. 11 Russian sailors set out to save her. They all died, and she lived.


Her paper -
Arctic Seafloor Methane Releases Double Previous Estimates


Nov. 25, 2013 — The seafloor off the coast of Northern Siberia is releasing more than twice the amount of methane as previously estimated, according to new research results published in the Nov. 24 edition of the journal Nature Geoscience.

Link
Non-categorized event in New Zealand on Tuesday, 26 November, 2013 at 04:05 (04:05 AM) UTC.
Description
A suspected mini tsunami that surged onto Papamoa Beach over the weekend knocked a fisherman off his feet and washed up kontiki fishing lines. Tauranga real estate salesman Grahame Lindsey was fishing with his kontiki at 5.30am on Saturday morning when he was rocked by a one metre high surge. The surge at low tide swept up the beach to reach the high tide line, stayed for several minutes and then drained out in a big vacuum. It was up to the waist of a nearby surf caster and swept another fisherman off his feet. "It was a hell of a volume of water. I have never seen anything like it, it was unbelievable." Mr Lindsey said it did not behave like a freak wave because of the way the way remained up the beach for so long. There was so much force that several kontiki lines washed up parallel to the beach and broke his line on his winch. However the Bay of Plenty's Civil Defence emergency management group controller Clinton Naude said nothing was detected by GNS Science that could have contributed to a tsunami hitting Tauranga's coastline. What was described would have needed a magnitude six distant source and GNS Science registered nothing that could have contributed to it."We would have still have picked it up on seismograph earthquake monitoring, even if it was a close-in source."GNS Science have monitoring buoys that detect incoming tsunami and are linked to the Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre. Mr Naude noted that some big swells were running in the weekend. He agreed the Mr Lindsey's description of the surge did sound like a tsunami.
Technological Disaster in China on Tuesday, 26 November, 2013 at 04:21 (04:21 AM) UTC.
Description
The roof of a factory building has collapsed in northeast China, killing nine people. On Monday's lunchtime collapse was probably caused by blizzards, citing the emergency response office. The nine people were buried by the collapse in Mudanjiang city in Heilongjiang province. A man from the local emergency response rescue command office confirmed the report and said that it was a food processing factory. Snow has closed roads and led to flight cancellations in the northeast this week.
Natalia Shakhova honored the 11 dead with her study. It was their effort not hers that made the study.

No science in the history of the world has ever thanked 11 dead Russians.
The SPC still bitter on the new outlook.. expanded the area but still did not put the whole peninsula under a slight risk. This is really going to look bad on their part if the local Mets are to be right.
Quoting 556. reedzone:
The SPC still bitter on the new outlook.. expanded the area but still did not put the whole peninsula under a slight risk. This is really going to look bad on their part if the local Mets are to be right.


Seems to me that the SPC and all of the coastal NWS(s) agree on the forecast: Thunderstorms for the peninsula with a slight chance of severe.



Edit: Good night.
In 2010 Natalia Shakhova was in a fishing boat , off the Levan delta doing science. A storm came up 11 Russian sailors died coming to their rescue .
Somehow, her boat made it. The 11 men on the Russian tug coming to save them all died.
Quoting 559. ColoradoBob1:
In 2010 Natalia Shakhova was in a fishing boat , off the Levan delta doing science. A storm came up 11 Russian sailors died coming to their rescue .
Somehow, her boat made it. The 11 men on the Russian tug coming to save them all died.


I bet there are some guilty feelings there. That is just horrible.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM LEHAR (BOB07-2013)
8:30 AM IST November 26 2013
=====================================

Cyclone Alert for Andhra Pradesh coast (Orange Alert)

At 3:00 AM UTC, the very severe cyclonic storm LEHAR over southeast Bay of Bengal moved westward at about 8 knots during the past 6 hours and now lays center near 12.5N 90.0E, about 300 km west northwest of Port Blair, 1030 km east southeast of Machillipatnam, 970 km east southeast of Kakinada and 900 km southeast of Kalingapatnam.

The system would intensify further and move west northwestwards and cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Machillipatnam and Kalingapatnam near Kakinada around noon Thursday.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.0. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 9.0N to 15.0n and 86.0E to 92.5E. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -89C. The central dense overcast pattern persists and has further organized. There is also a deep convective banding to the northeast of system center.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 70 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The state of the sea is very high to phenomenal around the center of the system. The central pressure of the very severe cyclonic storm is 982 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
9 HRS: 13.0N 88.8E - 75-80 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
21 HRS: 13.9N 87.1E - 85-90 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
45 HRS: 15.5N 83.3E - 90-100 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
69 HRS: 17.3N 80.5E - 35-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)

Storm Surge Guidance
==========================
Storm surge of height about 2.0-3.0 meters above astronomical tide would inundate low lying areas of west and east Godavari, Vishakhapatnam and Krishna districts at the time of landfall
Quoting 556. reedzone:
The SPC still bitter on the new outlook.. expanded the area but still did not put the whole peninsula under a slight risk. This is really going to look bad on their part if the local Mets are to be right.



Seems this one from Ruskin is a bit more representative of how things are unfolding rather than the SPC:




The surface low is a bit further south than original model progs, which is why the heaviest precip remains over the gulf currently instead of the Central Gulf coast.

Not really that big of a deal though, at least the SPC did put up the slight risk, although Central Florida I would think should have it as well and NWS Ruskin and Melbourne are treating it locally as one.

South Florida should be too far removed from the strongest dynamics to warrant a slight risk, although a potent LLJ and decent SB could still support an outside chance of a severe cell.

Again, not anything to fuss over too much, its just fun to discuss. I'm almost on break which starts tomorrow after my last day of class, hence my ability to blab more now after being really busy :)
As the man said about the thaw in Churchill , it's out of the freezer , and setting on the counter.
Local met just said there could be a couple of strong tornadoes this afternoon and people in C FL need to heed all warnings and take shelter if a tornado warning is issued.
Good morning and a safe day everyone - for Ison too, if it's still existent ...

NASA Comet ISON Observing Campaign
Comet ISON's Current Status
Latest Update: November 25th, 2013

In our November 23, the overall message was that not much had changed, and the comet appeared to be keeping it all together as it approached the Sun.

That situation may now have changed.

We are seeing reports online that molecular emission from the comet has fallen dramatically, meanwhile dust production seems to be enormous. What this could indicate is that the nucleus has completely disrupted, releasing an enormous volume of dust while significantly reducing emission rates. Fragmentation or disruption of the nucleus has always been the highest risk factor for this comet so if this has indeed happened then while unfortunate, it would not be a surprise.

However, these reports are new, and while they are undoubtedly valid, we do still need to keep observing the comet to be sure what it happening. Remember: Comet ISON is a dynamically new sungrazing comet, fresh in from the Oort Cloud, and the last time we saw an object like this was never! Furthermore, a sungrazing comet just three days from perihelion has never been studied in this kind of detail - we're breaking new ground here! When we factor in your standard "comets are unpredictable" disclaimer, what we have is a huge recipe for the unknown. ...



Latest stereo image of the comet form today. Source.



Source: Live-Tracker.

Yahoo-thread collecting very bad news about ISON.

Lehar. Maybe an eye clearing out soon?
US snow causing travel chaos
BBC Video report, 3 hours ago
A winter storm has blanketed large areas of the US in a thick covering of snow, disrupting Thanksgiving travel plans.
Millions of Americans are expected to brave the conditions, with forecasters predicting further widespread snowfall.
Emily Thomas reports.


Water vapor:


Radar:

Quoting 566. barbamz:

Lehar. Maybe an eye clearing out soon?
The transition from banding to a more uniform central dense overcast structure could also be a precursor to intensification.
2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season - June/November - GOES East Infrared Hurricane Sector Animation

The 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season was the quietest in 30 years. Do you remember how many hurricanes there were? Do you remember the dire predictions for 2013? All this information and more is in the video.

This animation, created from NASA imagery via the GOES East satellite, provides valuable insight into the strangely quiet hurricane season of 2013.

View six months of weather in fifteen minutes!



G'mornin Brian.
Good Morning All..
Lots of moisture heading NE..
Mucho..
A wet system for sure..





SPC AC 260600

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CST TUE NOV 26 2013

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF FL AND ADJACENT
AL/GA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE CONUS
WITH INITIALLY SPLIT UPPER FLOW EAST OF THE ROCKIES. A POSITIVE-TILT
TROUGH OVER TX EARLY TODAY WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EAST/EVENTUALLY
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BECOMES MORE NEUTRAL/SLIGHT NEGATIVE-TILT OVER
THE GULF COAST STATES IN CONCERT WITH A SIGNIFICANTLY STRENGTHENING
UPPER JET /110+ KT AROUND 300 MB/. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL
INCREASINGLY PHASE TONIGHT WITH A SOUTHEAST-MOVING/AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. A QUICKLY
MODIFYING COLD/CONTINENTAL AIRMASS OVER FL/COASTAL SOUTHEAST STATES
AND A STEADY MOIST INFLUX WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.

...SOUTHEAST AL AND GA/MUCH OF FL...
IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/STRENGTHENING
JET...THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY DEEPEN/SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AL/FL PANHANDLE INTO
GA...ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/BROAD WARM SECTOR WITH 60S
F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/SOME TSTMS AND
WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL TEND TO HINDER THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT ACROSS AL/GA NEAR
THE ADVANCING SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE FL PANHANDLE/COASTAL NORTH FL AND
EVENTUALLY WEST FL WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO AN INLAND-DEVELOPING
STRONG/SEVERE TSTM RISK DURING THE DAY. WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND
RELATIVELY STRONG SHEAR/LOW-LEVEL SRH WOULD SUPPORT BOTH
SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH AN ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO RISK. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MOST ORGANIZED
SEVERE RISK MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS FL. GIVEN THE APPROACHING/AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM TROUGH
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING FORCING FOR ASCENT/DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO AN INLAND/EASTWARD-MOVING SQUALL LINE WITH POSSIBLE
PRECEDING SEMI-DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FL
PENINSULA. THIS WOULD INCLUDE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/SOME TORNADO
RISK.

...CAROLINAS...
A SEVERE RISK MAY DEVELOP/INCREASE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
COASTAL/PERHAPS PIEDMONT PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...ALTHOUGH
QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING THE DEGREE OF INLAND
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EXPECTED PREVALENCE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT IN VICINITY OF THE
PROBABLE PIEDMONT FRONTAL ZONE...WITH AN INCREASINGLY BROAD/MOIST
WARM SECTOR WITH 60+ F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND WEAK
CAPE WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED/CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR/SOUTHEAST OF THE ADVANCING SURFACE LOW
WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION COULD SUPPORT A
SURFACE-BASED SEVERE TSTM RISK. INCREASINGLY LONG
HODOGRAPHS...ACCENTUATED BY 50-65 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS WITHIN THE
LOWEST 1-2 KM...COULD SUPPORT A COMBINATION OF LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED INSTANCES OF WIND
DAMAGE AND TORNADOES.

..GUYER/GARNER.. 11/26/2013

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1112Z (5:12AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
Quoting 570. PensacolaDoug:
G'mornin Brian.


Hi Doug,

I am hoping that my video gets shown as a link on the Drudge Report.

We'll see! :)
Oh boy here we go!!! About to start snowing any second according to radar!!
Quoting 572. Patrap:


Morning Pat..
Looks like your getting quite a bit your way..
More lightening as well..
Up early this am..
Today is roux and gumbo day here.. :)
Be done tomorrow and ready for Thanksgiving day.. :)

Quoting 576. Hurricane614:
Oh boy here we go!!! About to start snowing any second according to radar!!


Hope you get a couple of inches or more!
Quoting 574. CycloneOz:


Hi Doug,

I am hoping that my video gets shown as a link on the Drudge Report.

We'll see! :)


Good luck! That'd be very cool.
Where are the tornadoes across central Florida around 6-7 am this morning?
Quoting 564. StormTrackerScott:
Local met just said there could be a couple of strong tornadoes this afternoon and people in C FL need to heed all warnings and take shelter if a tornado warning is issued.
Which "local met" was that? NWS Melbourne says this, which sounds far more squally than anything that might induce "a couple of strong tornadoes":

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. TURNING IN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND
FIELDS AND STRENGTHENING ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS WILL POSE A RISK OF
STORMS WITH ROTATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
TO 45 MPH.

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE TOWARD EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE
LATE EVENING HOURS AND SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. EVENING STORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO 55 TO 55 MPH...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.
582. beell

(click for discussion)
Quoting 581. Neapolitan:
Which "local met" was that? NWS Melbourne says this, which sounds far more squally than anything that might induce "a couple of strong tornadoes":

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. TURNING IN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND
FIELDS AND STRENGTHENING ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS WILL POSE A RISK OF
STORMS WITH ROTATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
TO 45 MPH.

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE TOWARD EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE
LATE EVENING HOURS AND SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. EVENING STORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO 55 TO 55 MPH...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.


The "local met" was hyping tornadoes across central Florida by 6-7am. Some could me long track, violent tornadoes:)
None that I'm aware of so far..

Quoting 580. luvtogolf:
Where are the tornadoes across central Florida around 6-7 am this morning?

Hourly Weather reports for Florida found HERE..NWS
585. beell

(click for discussion)
Good Morning..Stay Safe out there..........................
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL PUSH A STRONG
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60
MPH...HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. TIMING OF
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BEGIN DURING THE EVENING ALONG THE
NATURE COAST...AFTER SUNSET FOR THE TAMPA BAY AREA...AND THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

Quoting 584. pcola57:
None that I'm aware of so far..

Quoting 580. luvtogolf:
Where are the tornadoes across central Florida around 6-7 am this morning?

Hourly Weather reports for Florida found HERE..NWS


I was being sarcastic because our resident hype caster was calling for tornadoes early this morning and we were idiots for not listening to him .
Quoting 588. luvtogolf:


I was being sarcastic because our resident hype caster was calling for tornadoes early this morning and we were idiots for not listening to him .


Gotcha luvto.. :)
I guess I'm an idiot too !!..
I think it's an ego trip for..
Anyway stay aware and safe your way.. :)
This video uses over 8,000 still images that I had to manually obtain...one at a time.

Quoting 591. CycloneOz:
This video uses over 8,000 still images that I had to manually obtain...one at a time.



Well done CycloneOz !!.. :)
Quoting 428. Thrawst:
Nassau Weather Live
Bahamas Ministry of Transport Statement on Cancellations of Cruise Ships to Port of Nassau by Ministry of Transport and Aviation Bahamas
Nov 25, 2013 - 5:20:39 PM


The Port Controller, Commander Patrick McNeil, wishes to clarify the circumstances surrounding today’s cancellation of the visits of the cruise ships, Allure of the Seas, Carnival Conquest and the Disney Dream, to the Port of Nassau.

Commander Mcneil has reported that the Allure of the Seas, the Carnival Conquest, and the Disney Dream were scheduled to call at the Port of Nassau on Monday, 25th7am, and 8am, respectively. However, according to the Port Controller, the captains of the Allure and the Conquest decided to cancel in advance the visits to Prince George Wharf, due to a weather system which had entered the Northwest Bahamas late Sunday evening.

The Port Controller has also advised that the Disney Dream did enter Nassau Harbour at 8am, assisted by the tug “Snapper” and two private tug boats. However, as the vessel was attempting to dock, it was unable to complete the maneuver, due to wind gusts of approximately 38 knots, and the Captain of that vessel made the decision to leave the Port of Nassau. November, 2013, at 6am,
It was pretty windy here yesterday. Also rainy. For a cruise tourist, yesterday in Nassau would have been a rather drippy experience... and today looks like more of the same, only perhaps not so windy since winds have shifted easterly....

Lehar's COC. Hmm.


Intensity forecast weakened.
Currently here
7:00 AM Temp 73.4 %uFFFDF Dewpoint 73.4 %uFFFDF Humidity 100% Pressure 30.02 in Visibility 6.2 mi Winds from ESE at 11.5 mph - Conditions Mostly Cloudy



I gotta run... want to get out in between the showers. Ya'll have a great day!
Quoting 593. pcola57:


Well done CycloneOz !!.. :)


It's something to do in retirement... :)
Quoting 589. pcola57:


Gotcha luvto.. :)
I guess I'm an idiot too !!..
I think it's an ego trip for..
Anyway stay aware and safe your way.. :)


I think we'll see some strong to severe storms late this afternoon and tonight. Straight line winds of 50-60 mph winds and a couple of spin up twisters.
issued by NWS for: Share |
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------


Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
513 AM EST TUE NOV 26 2013

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-271015-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
513 AM EST TUE NOV 26 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL PUSH A STRONG
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60
MPH...HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. TIMING OF
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BEGIN DURING THE EVENING ALONG THE
NATURE COAST...AFTER SUNSET FOR THE TAMPA BAY AREA...AND THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.


...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
BREEZY WINDS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST TODAY WILL INCREASE
THE RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
AREA BEACHES.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
SEAS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
WEST AND GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH. SEAS IN THE NEAR AND OFF SHORE
WATERS WILL BUILD ABOUT 5 TO 7 FEET BY THIS EVENING. ALONG THE
BEACHES A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
STRONG ON SHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SEAS TO THE 8 TO 10
FOOT RANGE THROUGH TOMORROW. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY ALONG WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

$$

BARRON

Quoting 599. luvtogolf:


I think we'll see some strong to severe storms late this afternoon and tonight. Straight line winds of 50-60 mph winds and a couple of spin up twisters.


Be safe over ..Wherever your at..
One thing I do note..
Is mention of discrete supercell formation was mentioned
In the synopsis..
Short lived and low ceiling..
North in Alabama/Georgia..
SPC..
Tomorrow's TCFP.

Winter mix is approaching me now.

Quoting 601. pcola57:


Be safe over ..Wherever your at..
One thing I do note..
Is mention of discrete supercell formation was mentioned
In the synopsis..
Short lived and low ceiling..
North in Alabama/Georgia..
SPC..


I'm in the Tampa area.
Quoting 576. Hurricane614:
Oh boy here we go!!! About to start snowing any second according to radar!!
Where are you located?.It's just very dark skies here.
IF i am reading this right..danger for supercell storms in central florida..12-15 hours..tonight i guess..
NWS, Wilmington, NC

HAZARDS...WHILE RAINFALL IS WELCOMED...A DYNAMIC WIND-FIELD WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STRONG OR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION AS DEPICTED IN THE
LATEST SPC "SLIGHT RISK" SWATH PAINTED ACROSS OUR ERN ZONES THAT
INCLUDES...A 15 PERCENT WIND-THREAT RISK AND A 5 PERCENT TORNADO
DESIGNATION. LATEST MODEL DATA SHOWS 0-1 KM AND 0-2 KM HELICITY
IS MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 03Z/10PM-09/4AMZ
TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MIXED LAYER AND SURFACE BASED
CAPES ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES APPEAR ADEQUATE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THESE PARAMETERS AS SUGGESTED BY SPC POSE A SLIGHT
RISK OF LOW-TOPPED SUPER-CELLS. ENHANCED SEVERE WORDING WILL
REMAIN IN THE GRIDS/ZFP/HWO TO CONVEY THIS HAZARD.
Quoting 606. washingtonian115:
Where are you located?.It's just very dark skies here.


Morning Washi,Torito,Largo,Baha,John and All..
Gumbo Day Washi..!!
Thanks for the advice.. :)
IF i understand what the nws is saying..the real danger for us in central florida..is that a warm air mass with lots of humidity is being pulled northward up florida..and a Strong cold front is headed right for it..when the 2 meet..boom..there's our danger time..tonight might get interesting indeed,especially here along the west coast line..
Quoting 609. pcola57:


Morning Washi,Torito,Largo,Baha,John and All..
Gumbo Day Washi..!!
Thanks for the advice.. :)
Good morning Pcola :) your welcome.Do you mind sending a bowl of Gumbo up here?.Which type is it?.Sausage,chicken or seafood?.
Quoting 611. washingtonian115:
Good morning Pcola :) your welcome.Do you mind sending a bowl of Gumbo up here?.Which type is it?.Sausage,chicken or seafood?.


Going with chicken and sausage..
Looks like you could use a bowl up there later..
(Hoping for ya..No ice though..just snow..)
By the by..
I found my recipe..
Matted and stuck together..
Makes me remember back when life was simplier and carefree..For me anyway :)
Mmmm gumbo. Good stuff.
Quoting 565. barbamz:
Good morning and a safe day everyone - for Ison too, if it's still existent ...

NASA Comet ISON Observing Campaign
Comet ISON's Current Status
Latest Update: November 25th, 2013

In our November 23, the overall message was that not much had changed, and the comet appeared to be keeping it all together as it approached the Sun.

That situation may now have changed.

We are seeing reports online that molecular emission from the comet has fallen dramatically, meanwhile dust production seems to be enormous. What this could indicate is that the nucleus has completely disrupted, releasing an enormous volume of dust while significantly reducing emission rates. Fragmentation or disruption of the nucleus has always been the highest risk factor for this comet so if this has indeed happened then while unfortunate, it would not be a surprise.

However, these reports are new, and while they are undoubtedly valid, we do still need to keep observing the comet to be sure what it happening. Remember: Comet ISON is a dynamically new sungrazing comet, fresh in from the Oort Cloud, and the last time we saw an object like this was never! Furthermore, a sungrazing comet just three days from perihelion has never been studied in this kind of detail - we're breaking new ground here! When we factor in your standard "comets are unpredictable" disclaimer, what we have is a huge recipe for the unknown. ...



Latest stereo image of the comet form today. Source.



Source: Live-Tracker.

Yahoo-thread collecting very bad news about ISON.
I thought JPL moved the status to returning yesterday? I think the number was 400,867 years till return if it makes it through. I will check it out later, gotta go to work. Absolute perfect weather here in Siesta Key. Light drizzle with a humid 70. I wish it would last forever.
I am very thankful for this rain..by me everything is soaking wet..hasnt been like this in many many weeks now..if the strong winds dont come..this is a very good thing for my area...we really needed this rain.
Quoting 612. pcola57:


Going with chicken and sausage..
Looks like you could use a bowl up there later..
(Hoping for ya..No ice though..just snow..)
By the by..
I found my recipe..
Matted and stuck together..
Makes me remember back when life was simplier and carefree..For me anyway :)
I'm getting a plane ticket and going down there then!.Some of the eateries up here try to do it but it's always meh.
Quoting 616. washingtonian115:
I'm getting a plane ticket and going down there then!.Some of the eateries up here try to do it but it's always meh.


Making 2 batches..
"mon down here!!.. :)
(Looking forward to ladelling over fresh rice..allowing for the steam to hit my face..deep inhale..
dash of Sassafrass/Gumbo File'..shot of tabasco..ahh!!..
It's almost like..



Anyway.. :)
Weather Wise..
Yes the pressure graidient from this is gonna be key..

Mercury Probe Captures ISON

Pretty cool. Fast trip around the sun...and then what?

Anyone here in far north ga..? Maybe south TN?

It says it is snowing there on the NWS website.

If so it would be quite heavy possibly but should turn to rain shortly.

34F there, 36F here. ....

I so want to do this again in winter
Ohh so close Washi..


Check out your WU page..

Click "Show Severe"
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Local met just said there could be a couple of strong tornadoes this afternoon and people in C FL need to heed all warnings and take shelter if a tornado warning is issued.


The local met shouldnt say 'strong' because honestly there are not even any tornado watches. Strong/Severe storms yes. You are all hype Scotty boy!



Quoting 615. LargoFl:
I am very thankful for this rain..by me everything is soaking wet..hasnt been like this in many many weeks now..if the strong winds dont come..this is a very good thing for my area...we really needed this rain.
Too bad the NWS radar died :/
623. MahFL
Quoting 615. LargoFl:
I am very thankful for this rain..by me everything is soaking wet..hasnt been like this in many many weeks now..if the strong winds dont come..this is a very good thing for my area...we really needed this rain.


Been dry in NE FL too, the rain will help with decaying the fallen leaves some.
Good Morning from the Florida Big Bend.

So far so good in terms of the low and rain event for these parts. Dark and rainy conditions but little in terms of wind gusts at the moment.  The huge rain shield ahead of the low should moderate solar heating later today so I am thinking that SPC should keep us in the slight risk category.  Not much in the way of sheer and forcing in these parts today per the chart below:






In terms of this year's Atlantic Hurricane Season (coming to an end) heard some numbers this morning on the local NPR news.  The two Atlantic Hurricanes this year are the lowest number of seasonal hurricanes for the Atlantic since 1994 and Florida has not had a direct impact from a Hurricane in eight years.  Don't know what that will mean for the future but as noted on here the past two seasons, the Atlantic has spawned a huge number of tropical storms the last two years and little in the form of majors.  Interesting times ahead over the next several seasons in terms of whether this pattern will continue or whether we are approaching the tipping point in terms of converting back to a less active multi-decadal signal for the Atlantic......Regardless, one "peak" intensity storm strike on Florida in the coming years can offset the benefits of recent years; Florida continues the current lucky streak for the moment.

 
Here comes the rain.

Quoting 619. GeorgiaStormz:
Anyone here in far north ga..? Maybe south TN?

It says it is snowing there on the NWS website.

If so it would be quite heavy possibly but should turn to rain shortly.

34F there, 36F here. ....

I so want to do this again in winter


Good morning GS and all others.
We are in N Georgia this week North of Ellijay 1 mile east of 515. I heard some ice pellets a few times overnight but right now we just have light rain and 40 degrees.
Have to get some work done and will check back later as conditions here warrant and particularly in the PM once heating gets going.  Will leave yall with the following lyrics from the Eurythmics:

Here comes the rain again
Falling on my head like a memory
Falling on my
head like a new emotion
I want to walk in the open wind
I want to talk
like lovers do
I want to dive into your ocean
Is it raining with
you


Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. A 'warmer' 38 degrees this morning, but under a freeze alert til nine. Tonight it's supposed to be around 29 degrees, and so many people don't think it gets cold in Louisiana. It's still raining and supposed to continue all day. I do love going to bed at night listening to the rain which I've been able to enjoy the last two nights. The rain is supposed to stop before the 29 degrees hit.

Breakfast's on the table: cheesy grits and shrimp, regular or whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, whole wheat pancakes with fruit sauce, egg burritos with cheese and chorizo, Belgian waffles with strawberries or powdered sugar, croissants, bagels with cream cheese and strawberry jelly or lox, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
A VERY COLD NIGHT...
Wednesday night/Thursday morning will be cold. We could hit the upper 30s inland around Lake Okeechobee.
Quoting 629. SFLWeatherman:
A VERY COLD NIGHT...
Wednesday night/Thursday morning will be cold. We could hit the upper 30s inland around Lake Okeechobee.
Possibly--though the lowest inland temperatures I've seen forecasted for tomorrow night are the low 40s, with mid-40s on the Gulf coast side of South Florida...
631. beell
Lead vort max from the strong southern stream shortwave approaching the TX/LA border. Trough is centered over S central TX. Probably 3-4 hours before it begins to have an influence over the weather in the FL Panhandle.




11/26 06Z NAM 500 mb Vorticity-Valid 12Z
Almost here.

Bufkit shows snow accumulation potential at birmingham ranging from 0.2" to 1.6"

Likely just a melting dusting.
634. ARiot
Co-worker fun, unless you work with weather geeks:

Greater DC area / Mid-Atlantic people know how badly the weather is hyped, and they know how much fun it can be when the "OPM" lets people stay home.

Anyway, last week or whenever the EU model first came out for this storm (maybe 10 days ago?) I said.

"Next week, right before Thanksgiving, we'll get a big storm, and if it pulls in enough cold air, it'll be snow."

They started chatting about it, and I said, "Most likely a big rain storm, so don't worry too much."

Today they wanted to know how I knew :D

Fun! I first told them about how the birds and squirels were behaving tipped me off early. Then I admitted it was "from a computer model-- a guess with data."

Lehar is finally starting to move again..



Sinkhole swallows up pond in Bosnian village
BBC 1 hour ago
Residents of the Bosnian village of Sanica have been left shocked after a sinkhole swallowed up their village pond overnight.
The pond was about 20 metres in wide and eight metres deep, but the sinkhole - which villagers are calling the "abyss," - is around 50 metres wide and 30 metres deep and still growing.
Geeta Guru-Murthy reports.

640. eddye
looks like broward county will hit the low 40
You'd think NASA would publish such a compilation of weather imagery, but they've missed the mark. This is something they may provide later on at some time. Right now, this is the only long play animation of the entire 2013 hurricane season.

The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season was the quietest in 30 years. Do you remember how many hurricanes there were? Do you remember the dire predictions for 2013? All this information and more is in the video.

This animation, created from NASA imagery via the GOES East satellite, provides valuable insight into the strangely quiet hurricane season of 2013.

There are over 8,000 individual images used to create the animation. The NASA server requires manual download of each image, one at a time. Then, after 3 weeks on their server, the images of the Atlantic Hurricane Sector are no longer offered.

The informational graphics include important information about the season, A running total of storms is compared to the dire predictions from NOAA NWS and Colorado State. How did the predictions fare?

Finally, acknowledgment of the 4th largest typhoon in history is also included.

View six months of weather in fifteen minutes!
Quoting 634. ARiot:
Co-worker fun, unless you work with weather geeks:

Greater DC area / Mid-Atlantic people know how badly the weather is hyped, and they know how much fun it can be when the "OPM" lets people stay home.

Anyway, last week or whenever the EU model first came out for this storm (maybe 10 days ago?) I said.

"Next week, right before Thanksgiving, we'll get a big storm, and if it pulls in enough cold air, it'll be snow."

They started chatting about it, and I said, "Most likely a big rain storm, so don't worry too much."

Today they wanted to know how I knew :D

Fun! I first told them about how the birds and squirels were behaving tipped me off early. Then I admitted it was "from a computer model-- a guess with data."




I guess you have to leave some room for error.

Dallas Tx. was supposed to have a historic ice storm and they didn't get any ice at all.
SouthCentral Tx (Hill Country) had a forecast of
1-3" of snow and they ended up with wet roads and temps above freezing.

Western Tx and Oklahoma got the significant ice and snow.
Actually, Western Oklahoma got more snow than forecast.
Double Post
NAVGEM 24 hours.

646. eddye
geoffrey wpb when we geting the rain in south fla
gfs 180 hours.



Oh hey, coast hugger.
From the Miami NWS Disco...

DISCUSSION...
MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING THE AREA OF CLOUDS PUSHING EAST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE GULF
AS THE LOW GETS GOING.

OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, THERE ARE SOME VERY QUICK MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS
THAT ARE MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND HAVE FINALLY
PUSHED INLAND. THESE SHOWERS ARE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE
AND ARE BRINGING VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN THIS MORNING. THE HRRR
SHOWS THIS TREND CONTINUING FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY TODAY.
GIVEN THIS, TRIMMED POPS BACK TO SCATTERED RANGE FOR THIS MORNING.
THROUGH THE DAY, AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES CLOSER, THERE WILL
BE AREAS OF WEAK TO MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFE AHEAD OF IT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WITH THE MODELS COMING INTO MUCH BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, HAVE BEEN ABLE TO FINE TUNE THE HIGHEST
POPS TONIGHT. MODELS ARE SWEEPING THE FRONT THROUGH FAIRLY
QUICKLY, CURRENTLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE BIGGER
QUESTION THE NEEDS TO BE ANSWERED IS WHAT TYPE OF WEATHER WILL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BRING? THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE, AND
INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT TO HAVE A LEAST A LINE OF SHOWERS JUST
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. MODELS ARE SHOWING CONTINUED CLOUDINESS
TODAY, WHICH WILL INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
HOWEVER, STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPING. AS
FOR TONIGHT, THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF CAPE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. BUT, GIVEN NOTHING HAS EVEN GOTTEN GOING AS OF YET, IT IS
HARD TO KNOW IF IT WILL INDEED BE A LINE OF SHOWERS OR A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, THE FRONT
LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO POSSIBLE PRODUCE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

LOOKING AT THE 500MB VORT ADVECTION, THERE IS SOME DECENT PVA
ALONG THE FRONT, BUT THE BETTER ADVECTION IS ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. LOOKING AT THE 200MB WIND SPEEDS, THERE IS A NICE
120/130KT JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. BUT, AGAIN,
THE JET IS MORE OVER NORTH FLORIDA, PUTTING CENTRAL FLORIDA MORE
IN THE AREA FOR THE STRONGEST OF STORMS, WITH WEAKER STORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, STILL CANT RULE OUT
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT, WITH
WINDS ALONG A SQUALL LINE BEING THE LARGEST THREAT. THERE WILL BE
0-3KM HELICITY OF OVER 100 AND UP TO 160 OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING, SO ALSO CAN NOT RULE OUT A RISK OF AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WITH THESE STORMS EITHER, WHICH IS IN LINE WITH SPC
THOUGHTS.
For West Palm Beach...

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #22
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM LEHAR (BOB07-2013)
14:30 PM IST November 26 2013
=====================================

Cyclone Warning for Andhra Pradesh coast (Orange Message)

At 9:00 AM UTC, the very severe cyclonic storm LEHAR over southeast Bay of Bengal moved west northwestward at about 8 knots during the past 6 hours and now lays center near 13.0N 89.0E, about 430 km west northwest of Port Blair, 920 km east southeast of Machillipatnam, 850 km east southeast of Kakinada and 780 km southeast of Kalingapatnam.

The system would intensify further and move west northwestwards and cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Machillipatnam and Kalingapatnam near Kakinada around noon Thursday.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.0. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 10.0N to 16.0N and 86.0E to 91.5E The lowest cloud top temperature is about -89C The central dense overcast pattern persists and has further organized. There is also a deep convective banding to the northeast of system center.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 70 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center of the system. The central pressure of very severe cyclonic storm LEHAR is 982 hPa.

The cyclonic storm LEHAR lies to the south of the upper tropospheric ridge which runs along 16.0N. The low level convergence along with low level relative vorticity has increased during past six hours and are favorable for further intensification. The sea surface temperature is about 28-29C. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind is low to moderate (10-20 knots). The wind shear is likely to further reduce over southern and central Bay of Bengal helping intensification of the system. The Madden Jullian oscillation index lies over phase 3 with amplitude less than 1. Numerical weather prediction models suggest that Madden Jullian oscillation would continue in phase 3 and 4 during next 5 days with amplitude less than 1. These are supportive for intensification.

Under the influence of upper level anticyclonic circulation over west central bay and adjoining India the cyclone has tracked more westward. The system would move west northwestwards for next 24 hours and after that the northerly component would increase and the direction of movement would gradually shift from west northwest to northwest as the system would come nearer on November 28th near Andhra Pradesh coast, it would experience colder sea surface temperature and also there is a possibility of increase in wind shear. All these may lead to slight weakening of the system before landfall and rapid weakening after the landfall.

The consensus among the numerical weather prediction models has increased with respect to track and intensification up to 60 hours. After 60 hours there is divergence in the numerical weather prediction models track forecast guidance as a few models suggest recurvature of the system towards northeast direction, under the influence of the expected mid latitude westerly trough over north India. The numerical weather prediction models suggest west-northwestward to northwestward movement and intensification of the system during this period. However some models suggest slight weakening of system before landfall over Andhra Pradesh. However considering the possible impact of mid-latitude westerly trough, the forecast track beyond 48-hours increases the northerly component.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
9 HRS: 13.5N 87.9E - 80-85 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
21 HRS: 14.3N 86.2E - 85-90 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
45 HRS: 16.0N 82.3E - 90-100 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
69 HRS: 17.8N 80.6E - 35-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)

Storm Surge Guidance
===========================
Storm surge of height about 2.0-3.0 meters above astronomical tide would inundate low lying areas of west and east Godavari, Vishakhapatnam and Krishna districts oa Andhra Pradesh and Yanam district of Puducherry at the time of landfall.
NWS is forecasting my neck of the woods to get down to 34 degrees the night before Thanksgiving. Coldest one in years!
654. eddye
cyber teddy it dosent go out that far nws it only goes out a week
655. MahFL
Is there a second low forming in east TX ?
NOAA jumped the gun and forced me to release my long play animation before the official end of the season.

I worked very hard on this video all season long, and I want to ask a favor of you all.

One of my dreams is to create a viral video, and this might be a candidate.

Please go to "The Drudge Report", scroll down, look on the right, and submit the following as a news item:

CNN iReport: Animation of 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-1063971
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
846 AM CST TUE NOV 26 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
NORTHERN GULF COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 915 AM CST/1015 AM EST/

* AT 844 AM CST...A DEVELOPING TORNADO HAS BEEN DETECTED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEAR OVERSTREET...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
DALKEITH...HONEYVILLE...WEWAHITCHKA...CHIPOLA CUTOFF...RED HILL...
WILMA...LEWIS AND KERN
Why experts blew the 2013 hurricane forecasts

Excerpts:

"Pretty much everyone who tried to forecast the number of hurricanes bombed," said Jeff Masters, chief meteorologist of Weather Underground, an online weather site.


"I think the magnitude of the cooling that occurred in the Atlantic was somewhat overlooked by ourselves and others," said Phil Klotzbach, who along with William Gray initially forecast 18 named storms, including nine hurricanes. "It was one of the largest busts for our research team in the 30 years we've been issuing this report."


"A combination of conditions acted to offset several climate patterns that historically have produced active hurricane seasons," said Gerry Bell, NOAA's lead hurricane forecaster. "As a result, we did not see the large numbers of hurricanes that typically accompany these climate patterns."
From my amateur eyes, a squall line is forming off in the gulf near the western part of the panhandle and moving east. This will become severe. Anyone else see the line forming to the west of the large shower cluster?
664. Spazi
Hi, I have a quick question about the Wundermap. Under the buble help popup for model data, Map Type, ....

The MSL charts show mean sea-level pressure (blue contours, 4 mb interval), 1000 to 500 mb thickness (yellow contours, 60 m interval), and accumulated precipitation (color fill, see colorbar for intervals). The NAM shows the next 6 hours; the GFS shows the previous 6 hours if the forecast time is even (e.g., 6, 12, 18, 24 hour forecasts), and the previous 3 hours if the forecast time is odd (e.g., 3, 9, 15, 21 hour forecasts; and the RUC shows the previous 1 hour for the forecast times 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, and 8, and the previous 3 hours for forecast times 3, 6, and 9."


There is no mention of ECMWF. How I am suppose to interpret the data (same as GFS?)
"It was one of the largest busts for our research team in the 30 years we've been issuing this report."





duhhhhhhh
go here http://www.ecmwf.int/products/data/archive/data_fa q.html
Looking nasty for AL/Panhandle/GA atm

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
955 AM EST TUE NOV 26 2013

FLC045-077-261515-
/O.CON.KTAE.TO.W.0021.000000T0000Z-131126T1515Z/
GULF FL-LIBERTY FL-
955 AM EST TUE NOV 26 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 AM EST/915 AM CST/
FOR SOUTHWESTERN LIBERTY AND NORTHERN GULF COUNTIES...

AT 853 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR HONEYVILLE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WEWAHITCHKA...CHIPOLA CUTOFF...RED HILL...WILMA...LEWIS AND KERN

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR SAFER STRUCTURES.
GET TO THE LOWEST FLOOR AND PUT AS MANY WALLS BETWEEN YOU AND THE
TORNADO AS POSSIBLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3005 8533 3020 8517 3020 8512 3022 8511
3021 8510 3022 8509 3025 8506 3008 8488
2997 8519
TIME...MOT...LOC 1456Z 227DEG 31KT 3005 8520

$$

Here, we, go!
Quoting 662. FIUStormChaser:
From my amateur eyes, a squall line is forming off in the gulf near the western part of the panhandle and moving east. This will become severe. Anyone else see the line forming to the west of the large shower cluster?


front
Quoting 662. FIUStormChaser:
From my amateur eyes, a squall line is forming off in the gulf near the western part of the panhandle and moving east. This will become severe. Anyone else see the line forming to the west of the large shower cluster?


cold front is dev in western gom

670. beell
Active Weather Watches and Warnings
click graphic for Weather Watch details (page refresh for current warnings)

Quoting 657. GeorgiaStormz:
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
846 AM CST TUE NOV 26 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
NORTHERN GULF COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 915 AM CST/1015 AM EST/

* AT 844 AM CST...A DEVELOPING TORNADO HAS BEEN DETECTED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEAR OVERSTREET...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
DALKEITH...HONEYVILLE...WEWAHITCHKA...CHIPOLA CUTOFF...RED HILL...
WILMA...LEWIS AND KERN
so its begun..tornado wise..stay safe folks
Quoting 651. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
geez thanks for this keeper,might be a rough night around here.
673. MahFL
Tornado damage reported in FL panhandle.
EVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC037-129-261545-
/O.NEW.KTAE.SV.W.0202.131126T1506Z-131126T1545Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1006 AM EST TUE NOV 26 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
CENTRAL WAKULLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SAINT MARKS...CRAWFORDVILLE...

* UNTIL 1045 AM EST

* AT 1003 AM EST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 22 MILES SOUTH OF CRAWFORDVILLE...OR
NEAR ALLIGATOR POINT...AND MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SAINT
TERESA...BALD POINT...PANACEA-WAKULLA AIRPORT...PANACEA...
BUCKHORN...SHELL POINT...MEDART...LIVEOAK ISLAND...SPRING CREEK...
TULLY...WAKULLA BEACH...PORT LEON...ARRAN...HYDE PARK...PLUM
ORCHARD...WAKULLA SPRINGS...WAKULLA...SHADEVILLE AND NEWPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY.

&&

LAT...LON 2992 8447 2990 8449 2991 8450 3026 8443
3023 8412 3007 8418 3008 8419 3007 8426
3000 8435 2998 8433 2996 8435 2994 8433
2990 8433 2989 8438
TIME...MOT...LOC 1506Z 195DEG 30KT 2988 8440

$$

42-DVD


Things are getting dicey here around Tallahassee, had to walk a half mile to class in the heavy rain and wind, today is the last day of classes before break, and both of my classes let are meteorology classes. We shall see who the REAL weather warriors are by the class attendance today :)
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 AM EST/945 AM CST/
FOR NORTHERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN FLORIDA...AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND
SOUTHEASTERN CALHOUN COUNTIES IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...

...TORNADO CONFIRMED WITH DEBRIS IN THE AIR...

AT 1013 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR CONFIRMED A TORNADO
WITH DEBRIS IN THE AIR. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR RED
HILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. DAMAGE HAS ALSO BEEN REPORTED
WITH THIS STORM.
676. Spazi
Quoting 666. ricderr:
go here http://www.ecmwf.int/products/data/archive/data_fa q.html


Thxs for the quick reply but your link does not work. I searched for FAQ on the ECMWF site but I cannot find my answer.
(clip)..from the Miami nws discussion..........THE JET IS MORE OVER NORTH FLORIDA, PUTTING CENTRAL FLORIDA MORE
IN THE AREA FOR THE STRONGEST OF STORMS.....stay alert and heed local warnings folks
678. Spazi
Quoting 676. Spazi:


Thxs for the quick reply but your link does not work. I searched for FAQ on the ECMWF site but I cannot find my answer.


I fixed the link and found the FAQ but I still cannot find my answer. I am new to this so I apologize for wasting blog space on a usage issue.
so far ok here..clouds flying northward,alot of moisture for the storms to feed off of im afraid..
Quoting 678. Spazi:


I fixed the link and found the FAQ but I still cannot find my answer. I am new to this so I apologize for wasting blog space on a usage issue.



you aren't wasting space

Unfortunately at this time I can't find your answer..

Hopefully you will.
cut and pate...my apologies



http://www.ecmwf.int/products/data/archive/data_f aq.html
... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 1045 am EST/945 am CST/
for northern Liberty County in Florida... and north central Gulf and
southeastern Calhoun counties in the Panhandle of Florida...

... Tornado confirmed with debris in the air...

At 1021 am EST... National Weather Service radar confirmed a tornado
with debris in the air. This tornado was located near Red
Hill... moving northeast at 40 mph. Damage has also been reported
with this storm.


Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to
Lewis... Wilma... Marysville... Orange... Central City... Estiffanulga...
Nixon garden... Jensen Place... Vilas... Woods... Liberty... Bristol...
Clio and Telogia

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Take cover now! Leave Mobile homes and vehicles for safer structures.
Get to the lowest floor and put as many walls between you and the
tornado as possible.

1020 am EST Tue Nov 26 2013

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
north central Franklin County in Florida...
southeastern Liberty County in Florida...

* until 1045 am EST

* at 1017 am EST... a developing tornado has been detected by the
National Weather Service near Fort Gadsden... moving northeast at 45
mph.
*

Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to Owens
bridge... Morgan Place... Twin Pole... East Camp... Poplar Camp and
jewel fire tower

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Take cover now! Leave Mobile homes and vehicles for safer structures.
Get to the lowest floor and put as many walls between you and the
tornado as possible.

Quoting 682. Torito:
... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 1045 am EST/945 am CST/
for northern Liberty County in Florida... and north central Gulf and
southeastern Calhoun counties in the Panhandle of Florida...

... Tornado confirmed with debris in the air...

At 1021 am EST... National Weather Service radar confirmed a tornado
with debris in the air. This tornado was located near Red
Hill... moving northeast at 40 mph. Damage has also been reported
with this storm.

Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to
Lewis... Wilma... Marysville... Orange... Central City... Estiffanulga...
Nixon garden... Jensen Place... Vilas... Woods... Liberty... Bristol...
Clio and Telogia

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Take cover now! Leave Mobile homes and vehicles for safer structures.
Get to the lowest floor and put as many walls between you and the
tornado as possible.

1020 am EST Tue Nov 26 2013

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
north central Franklin County in Florida...
southeastern Liberty County in Florida...

* until 1045 am EST

* at 1017 am EST... a developing tornado has been detected by the
National Weather Service near Fort Gadsden... moving northeast at 45
mph.

* Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to Owens
bridge... Morgan Place... Twin Pole... East Camp... Poplar Camp and
jewel fire tower

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Take cover now! Leave Mobile homes and vehicles for safer structures.
Get to the lowest floor and put as many walls between you and the
tornado as possible.



Well say it ain't so.
684. eddye
keeper of the gate look at that weather in the gulf coming towards south fl

Storm #K7 is the danger area.

Local mets still saying C FL could see a strong tornado or 2 as the jet is stronger than anticipated over C FL also the sun is coming out adding more instability into the air. Nearing 80 already in Orlando with dewpoints in the 70's

687. Spazi
Quoting 680. GeorgiaStormz:



you aren't wasting space

Unfortunately at this time I can't find your answer..

Hopefully you will.


I should probably post what I am trying to do with ECMWF. I wanted to see how much precipitation that model is predicting over a given run. I read the FAQ item 8 on data seems to tell me the answer, but I really don't understand it.

Stay safe everyone who is in the path of the storm. I hope it doesn't do too much damage/causes too much disruption for everyone travelling for thanksgiving!
This is not the day for the Tampa radar to be down!

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
good night to keep the cars in the garage,especially with possible hail...Orlando can remember what happened last time huh...................................
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL PUSH A STRONG
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60
MPH...HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. TIMING OF
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BEGIN DURING THE EVENING ALONG THE
NATURE COAST...AFTER SUNSET FOR THE TAMPA BAY AREA...AND THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

Had to come up to Durham this morning -- upper 30s and rain. The warm front went through the house...up to the lower 60s. Cold front comes through tomorrow night...back to 40s for highs.

Bipolar weather continues.
suns out in east bay area of tampa... didnt someone say the more sun the warmer it gets and the better chances for bigger storms or at least better rain ?
Quoting 637. Torito:


It's cold rain here in the DC suburbs since 10:AM or so. Some ice pellets when it began but no road accumulation at all. The map showing estimated mixed precip (purple) is misleading.

Expecting heavy rain tonight and possibly a light coating of snow tomorrow.