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Rare November Tornado Outbreak Kills 6; Subtropical Storm Melissa Forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:23 PM GMT on November 18, 2013

A rare and deadly late-season tornado and severe weather outbreak blitzed the Midwest U.S. on Sunday, killing at least six people and leaving widespread significant damage. A tornado preliminarily rated as a violent EF-4 touched down in New Minden, Illinois, east of St. Louis, carving a path of destruction three miles long, killing two people, and blowing semi trucks off of I-64. The twister was one of only twenty EF-4s to occur in the U.S. in November dating back to 1950, and was the third most northerly November EF-4 ever observed, according to data from the Tornado History Project. The most widespread damage from Sunday's outbreak occurred in the town of Washington (population 16,000), about 140 miles southwest of Chicago, where another powerful EF-4 tornado destroyed or heavily damaged 250 - 500 homes and an apartment complex. A northern Illinois man says he discovered mail belonging to Washington residents on his property in Channahon, about 80 miles northeast Washington, according to the (Peoria) Journal-Star. Three other tornado deaths occurred in Massac County in the far southern part of Illinois, making Sunday the deadliest November tornado outbreak in Illinois history. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged 68 preliminary tornado reports, along with 412 reports of high wind gusts and 32 reports of hail. Sixteen of the wind gusts were in excess of 74 mph (hurricane strength.)


Figure 1. A view of part of Washington, Illinois from Mackenzie Street on Sunday, Nov. 17, 2013 after a tornado tore through the area. (AP Photo/Alex Kareotes)


Figure 2. Radar reflectivity image of the supercell thunderstorm that spawned the Washington, Illinois tornado of November 17, 2013.

A strange 2013 tornado season
Sunday's tornado outbreak is yet another anomaly in what has been a very unusual 2013 tornado season. The top three tornado outbreaks have occurred in November, January, and October--well outside the usual spring/summer peak of tornado season:

Top Five Tornado Days of 2013
------------------------------------------
01/29/13: 62 tornadoes
11/17/13: 68 (filtered) tornadoes, but likely to decrease once damage surveys completed
10/31/13: 42 tornadoes
05/20/13: 32 tornadoes
05/31/13: 30 tornadoes

It's been an unusually slow severe weather season, with the 2013 preliminary tally of 818 tornadoes before Sunday the lowest year-to-date count since the extreme drought year of 1988. However, when severe weather outbreaks have come, they have been unusually destructive. According to Aon Benfield, there have been five severe weather outbreaks topping $1 billion in damages this year. This is the third highest number of such disasters on record, going back to 1980. The record is shared by 2011 and 2012, with seven billion-dollar-plus severe weather outbreaks, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. According to Aon Benfield, "prior to Sunday’s outbreak, both economic and insured losses attributed to severe weather were slightly below the 10-year average in 2013. Thus far, economic losses from convective storm events were roughly USD15.7 billion and approximately USD9.2 billion of those losses were covered by insurance. The 2003-2012 averages are USD17 billion and USD11 billion, respectively. It remains too early to project losses from Sunday’s event." The most expensive and deadliest severe weather outbreak of 2013 hit on May 20, when Moore, Oklahoma was devastated by an EF-5 tornado that killed 23 people and did $2 billion in damage. Yesterday's damage was severe and widespread, and there is a good chance the outbreak will become the first-ever billion-dollar severe weather outbreak to hit in November.


Figure 3. Prior to Sunday's severe weather outbreak, there were seven billion-dollar weather disasters in the U.S. in 2013. Five of these disasters were severe weather outbreaks--the third highest such total in history.

November tornado outbreaks: how rare?
Since 1950, there have been 2211 November tornadoes, killing 251 and injuring 5060.

Deadliest: 24 killed, 11/06/2005, F-3 tornado near Evansville, Indiana
Longest path: 160 miles, 11/23/1992, F-3 tornado in North Carolina
Most November tornadoes: 154 in 2004 (both 2005 and 1992 had 153)

Here is a list of the largest November tornado outbreaks since 1950:

95 tornadoes: November 21–23, 1992, Texas to Mississippi and into the Ohio Valley. The most intense and largest November outbreak on record in U.S. history. Produced violent tornadoes from Texas to Mississippi and into the Ohio Valley, including six F4s and two extremely long-track tornadoes, 160 miles and 128 miles.
75 tornadoes: November 9–11, 2002, Southeast U.S. and Ohio Valley. Very large and deadly outbreak produced multiple killer tornadoes across the Ohio Valley and Southeastern United States. A violent F4 hit Van Wert, Ohio, killing four people. Deadly F3 also hit Mossy Grove, Tennessee, killing seven.
67 tornadoes: November 23–24, 2001, Southeast U.S. Thirteen people killed.
50 tornadoes: November 15, 2005, Central and Southeast U.S. One person killed.
50 tornadoes: November 15 - 16, 1987, Oklahoma, Texas, and Mississippi
46 tornadoes: November 27–28, 2005, Central and Southeast U.S. One person killed.
44 tornadoes: November 15, 1988, Central and Eastern U.S.
40 tornadoes: November 15 - 16, 1989, Produced a deadly F4 that struck Huntsville, Alabama, at rush hour. Strong tornadoes touched down as far north as Quebec.

Sunday's outbreak will probably rank as the fourth most prolific November tornado outbreak since 1950. But what was really remarkable about the outbreak was how far north it extended, with severe thunderstorms and tornado warnings issued in Wisconsin and Michigan. NWS Gaylord has confirmed an EF-0 at I-75 near Waters yesterday, which closed the highway. This is the farthest north there's been a tornado in Michigan in November or this late in the year in the period of modern tornado records (1950-present), and only the seventh November tornado recorded in Michigan. In Southeast Lower Michigan where I live, I've never seen such a powerful and long-lasting high wind event during the 40 years I've lived here. As I sawed up the downed tree blocking my street last night, accompanied by wild winds, flashing lightning, and the eerie orange glow of a nearby electrical transformer blowing, I reflected once again how the severe weather season has become increasingly noticeable in cold season months here. These events are rare enough and our database is so poor that we can't make any definitive statements on how climate change may be affecting them, but one would expect to see cold-season severe weather events become increasingly common farther to the north in a warming climate. According to the Chicago NWS, prior to Sunday’s tornado outbreak, there had been just twelve November tornadoes since 1950 in the 23-county region of Northeast Illinois and Northwest Indiana that they service (six of these twisters touched down on November 12, 1965.) Preliminary tornado reports indicate that as many as six tornadoes may touched down Sunday in the region (four in Will County, one in Grundy County, and one in Newton County.) November tornadoes tend to be strong and destructive, and any shift to a climate with more of these beasts will be unwelcome. The Chicago NWS wrote: "Eight of the twelve previous November tornadoes were EF-2 or stronger, showing that when tornadoes do occur in November, there is a decent likelihood they will be significant (EF-2 or stronger). The primary reason for this is strong dynamics and wind field that tend to be present in the cool season (late autumn and winter), which add to a greater amount of wind shear.  This is a key component to tornadoes, and the greater the wind shear the more likelihood for significant tornadoes."


Figure 4. MODIS image of Subtropical Storm Melissa, taken at 13:30 UTC (8:30 am EST) November 18, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Subtropical Storm Melissa forms
A large low pressure system centered about 740 miles east-southeast of Bermuda acquired enough organization to become Subtropical Storm Melissa, the 13th Atlantic named storm of 2013. The storm is generating sustained winds in excess of tropical storm force, as seen on the latest ASCAT satellite wind map. Ocean temperatures are near 27°C, which is about 1°C above average, and plenty warm enough to support tropical storm formation. While wind shear is currently a high 30 - 40 knots, it is expected to drop to the moderate range on Tuesday before increasing again on Wednesday. Satellite loops show that Melissa has a large band of heavy thunderstorms displaced more than 100 miles from the center of circulation, which is characteristic of a subtropical storm. Heavy thunderstorm activity near the center is beginning to build, so it is possible that NHC would classify this system as Tropical Storm Melissa on Tuesday. Melissa will not be a threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters

Tornado Hurricane Severe Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 453. VR46L:


No worky :)



Imgur fixed it ;)

See, wrong place.



By the way, thanks, Jeff Masters.
Thanks Doc

Thoughts to those who suffered yesterday!
Let me guess , no threat ! Thanks Dr.M.
As Melissa does not pose any threat to any land mass and only maritime interests, I'm gonna file her in the ol' "who cares" file.
check out the room prices vary cheap

Link
Quoting 4. OMGtheskyisfalling:
As Melissa does not pose any threat to any land mass and only maritime interests, I'm gonna file her in the ol' "who cares" file.


No, don't do that till after it dissipates.... Don't make it think that everyone expects nothing from it... ;)
Quoting 5. Tazmanian:
check out the room prices vary cheap

Link


$900-$1500..... That is too pricy for me. :|

Edit.... I would be afraid the glass keeping the water out would shatter... Too scary for me. :P
Roll cloud on video!

Link
Good morning Pcola. yep a lot of weather going on today.

How would you like to be in the underwater room during a hurricane?
Quoting 7. Torito:


$900-$1500..... That is too pricy for me. :|


Would be cool though ... maybe when I win the Lottery LOL
Quoting 10. VR46L:


Would be cool though ... maybe when I win the Lottery LOL


Put it on your bucket list for next year?

Anyways.... 91B's floater. :P

Thanks Doc! Thoughts and prayers for those affected by the tornado's yesterday
Quoting 9. Dakster:
Good morning Pcola. yep a lot of weather going on today.

How would you like to be in the underwater room during a hurricane?


No thanks, keep the flying houses for the future....



91W has been weakening in the last few hours....

Thank you, Dr. Masters, for this new entry with all the elaborate background data and the personal report about your own experiences last night.
Quoting 9. Dakster:
Good morning Pcola. yep a lot of weather going on today.

How would you like to be in the underwater room during a hurricane?

NOOooo Thank you very much Dak.. :)

Thanks for updated blog post Dr. Masters..
I realize that there are no conccuring comparisons for yesterdays outbreak, to tropical storms by the experts @ the moment..
It has been brought up though and I'm concerned..
I would like to you weigh in on the effect of naming,If you would please, as it seems to me a great "alarm bell"
Yet to be rung for these type of outbreaks..
In your opinion..
Do we need to take a step in this direction in the future?

(Don't know if you will weigh in on this..
You choose your replies carefully and I appreciate that..)

Thanks again for the post..
I go to look at goes east, and it blacked out. xD



Still can't get a hold of Family in Michigan... Probably they are still without power... (Not really worried as they are mostly down trees in their area according to the news) I only assume if houses were leveled that would be on the news and not a picture of a tree across a street..
Melissa looks like it fizzed out a little in the last few frames... :(

Melissa
Here is a very strange looking invest that I did not notice till now.

RIP. :P

Really tall Cloudtops ...... not!!!!

Quoting 18. Dakster:
Still can't get a hold of Family in Michigan... Probably they are still without power... (Not really worried as they are mostly down trees in their area according to the news) I only assume if houses were leveled that would be on the news and not a picture of a tree across a street..


Hoping for their safety Dak..
Quoting 19. Torito:
Melissa looks like it fizzed out a little in the last few frames... :(



I would say she is choking on air.... I can't and won't take her seriously ....

This is when I started watching SHF5, if anyone noticed that I talk about that model a lot when it comes to intensity.

It nailed Karen.

Hey what do you know, it actually made it! I was pretty skeptical it would for a while. GFS analysis shows the center on the warm side of the baroclinic zone by a bit, so subtropical looks like a good call.

Is STS included in ACE ?
Quoting 30. VR46L:
Is STS included in ACE ?

It depends on where you look and who is doing the calculations. They are often times not, but a few people who tally ACE will include them. I don't believe NOAA/NHC does though.
Thanks for the analysis and personal anecdotes Dr. Masters. I usually pull up the blog after significant weather events, hoping that you and the other-wise folks here have more (and technical) information on what happened.

Has to be especially terrifying to have that kind of weather where it rarely happens. Sorry for those who lost.

I asked some folks what the hardest thing to get used to, in the DFW area, after they moved here from Coastal Washington. There response was, "Thunder". It rains a lot there, but thunder and lightening they never had, and that was unnerving. I know you guys closer to the coast, like Houston and NOLA, get it worse than here. I grew up in Baton Rouge on a hill and remember lightening so close, that in the middle of the night the fluorescent lamp next to my bed lit up on its own repeatedly.
Subtropical cyclones do not contribute ACE.
Quoting 22. VR46L:
Really tall Cloudtops ...... not!!!!



You're not going to see -80C cloudtops in a subtropical cyclone at ~30N in November regardless of how anomalously warm the SSTs are.

If Melissa goes tropical, which is probable in my opinion, it'll likely make a run for hurricane status. It's only got 48 hours though to do so. Situation is similar to Shary 2010, Noel and Olga in 2001.
Quoting 29. tramp96:

BTW Skyepony very nice post on Dr. Rood's blog
a few days ago.


I saw this MEME and thought of that blog

 photo QC5CBWR_zps5bff334c.jpg
Quoting 34. CybrTeddy:


You're not going to see -80C cloudtops in a subtropical cyclone at ~30N in November regardless of how anomalously warm the SSTs are.

If Melissa goes tropical, which is probable in my opinion, it'll likely make a run for hurricane status. It's only got 48 hours though to do so. Situation is similar to Shary 2010, Noel and Olga in 2001.


She needs to shed these completely First...



As I said cant take her serious while she looks like a extrop storm.....
the wishcasters missed their chance with melissa...now looks like they'll have to be idle until next year
Quoting 33. CybrTeddy:
Subtropical cyclones do not contribute ACE.


Thanks but confused
Quoting 31. 1900hurricane:

It depends on where you look and who is doing the calculations. They are often times not, but a few people who tally ACE will include them. I don't believe NOAA/NHC does though.


Thanks I missed that reply ...


I guess if thats the case they are more an opinion than factual thing ,,,,
Quoting 37. VR46L:


She needs to shed these completely First...



As I said cant take her serious while she looks like a extrop storm.....


Most subtropical cyclones do look like extratropical storms, see Otto and Shary in 2010.
Quoting 4. OMGtheskyisfalling:
As Melissa does not pose any threat to any land mass and only maritime interests, I'm gonna file her in the ol' "who cares" file.


"who cares."

Myself, Dr. Masters, scientific interests as well as shipping interests, everyone on this blog with an interest in tropical cyclones as well as other blogs, etc.

:P
Thanks barb for that post on"Cleopatra" in the Med..
I hope you don't mind if I bring that forward from the last blog.. :)

Post # 451..

It is unusual..

Reports about more than 4 inches (100mm) rain and locally considerably more are out.







Thanks Doc. I made a new blog on STS Melissa.
I saw on Twitter that Washington, IL tornado is rated as EF4 at 170-190 mph.
Quoting 47. Bluestorm5:
I saw on Twitter that Washington, IL tornado is rated as EF4 at 170-190 mph.


Is that official Blue?
(Not trying to be a rear.. :)
Just asking..
Maybe a link to something official?)
TIA
Quoting 48. pcola57:


Is that official Blue?
(Not trying to be a rear.. :)
Just asking..
Maybe a link to something official?)
TIA

...PRELIMINARY NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 11/17/13 TORNADO EVENT IN WASHINGTON, IL...

.OVERVIEW...A brief, preliminary damage survey was done in
the City of Washington, Illinois in Tazewell County during
the evening of November 17th. A survey team from the NWS
Lincoln office will be doing a more complete survey of the
damage today.

At this time, there is one confirmed fatality. Many media
reports are indicating three. However, these reports are
confusing the fact that two fatalities also occurred in
Washington COUNTY near the town of New Minden, IL. See
www.weather.gov/LSX for information about this from the
St. Louis, MO NWS office.


.Washington, IL...

PRELIMINARY RATING: EF-4
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 170-190 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: Not determined at this time
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: Not determined at this time
FATALITIES: 1 confirmed
INJURIES: 75 (estimated)

START DATE: Nov 17 2013
START TIME: 11:05 am CST

EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES
TORNADOES INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES.

EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH
EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH

NOTE:
THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENTS AND PUBLICATION IN
NWS STORM DATA.

Link
Quoting 48. pcola57:


Is that official Blue?
(Not trying to be a rear.. :)
Just asking..
Maybe a link to something official?)
TIA


Link
Quoting 48. pcola57:


Is that official Blue?
(Not trying to be a rear.. :)
Just asking..
Maybe a link to something official?)
TIA
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php ?wfo=ilx&storyid=98208&source=0

You know, in case you needed a third. ;-)
Quoting 49. TropicalAnalystwx13:

...PRELIMINARY NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 11/17/13 TORNADO EVENT IN WASHINGTON, IL...

.OVERVIEW...A brief, preliminary damage survey was done in
the City of Washington, Illinois in Tazewell County during
the evening of November 17th. A survey team from the NWS
Lincoln office will be doing a more complete survey of the
damage today.

At this time, there is one confirmed fatality. Many media
reports are indicating three. However, these reports are
confusing the fact that two fatalities also occurred in
Washington COUNTY near the town of New Minden, IL. See
www.weather.gov/LSX for information about this from the
St. Louis, MO NWS office.


.Washington, IL...

PRELIMINARY RATING: EF-4
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 170-190 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: Not determined at this time
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: Not determined at this time
FATALITIES: 1 confirmed
INJURIES: 75 (estimated)

START DATE: Nov 17 2013
START TIME: 11:05 am CST

EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES
TORNADOES INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES.

EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH
EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH

NOTE:
THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENTS AND PUBLICATION IN
NWS STORM DATA.

Link


Quoting 50. Bluestorm5:


Link


OK thanks Blue and TA.. :)
It still has yesterday's date so trying to keep perspective..
Prelim..


Quoting 51. Neapolitan:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php ?wfo=ilx&storyid=98208&source=0

You know, in case you needed a third. ;-)


Thanks for the Link Nea..
Sneaking in and all like that.. :)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Subtropical cyclones do not contribute ACE.


Yeah, they do. As long as it has a name and it's anywhere in the Atlantic basin, it counts, even if it's subtropical for its entire existence. This has always seemed wrong to me, since we have many "subtropical" lows in the North Atlantic that form every year that are more powerful than many of our named storms this season. It seems like only tropical cyclones should be counted in the ACE score, but that's not the way the NHC sees it.
Quoting 54. sar2401:


Yeah, they do. As long as it has a name and it's anywhere in the Atlantic basin, it counts, even if it's subtropical for its entire existence. This has always seemed wrong to me, since we have many "subtropical" lows in the North Atlantic that form every year that are more powerful than many of our named storms this season. It seems like only tropical cyclones should be counted in the ACE score, but that's not the way the NHC sees it.


I guess they've changed it recently, because Beryl last year ACE total as a subtropical cyclone wasn't included in the final seasonal toll.
Quoting pcola57:




OK thanks Blue and TA.. :)
It still has yesterday's date so trying to keep perspective..
Prelim..



Doug, a brief, preliminary survey after dark means they drove around with local law enforcement or the National Guard and looked at the damage using spotlights. A daylight survey will be a lot more accurate. However, after seeing some of the pictures coming out of Washington, either the houses there are exceptionally poorly built or that tornado was an EF-5 for at least part of its life.
Quoting 44. Patrap:
Atlas Maven Mars Launch LIVE NASA TV



Thanks Pat..
T minus 1 hr.22 to go.as of now..
Quoting 57. sar2401:

Doug, a brief, preliminary survey after dark means they drove around with local law enforcement or the National Guard and looked at the damage using spotlights. A daylight survey will be a lot more accurate. However, after seeing some of the pictures coming out of Washington, either the houses there are exceptionally poorly built or that tornado was an EF-5 for at least part of its life.


Thanks sar.. :)
I appreciate the perspective..
PS..
I'm not Doug.. :)
Thank You Dr. for the Update and the historical stats.  Most interesting comment from your entry was the following:

These events are rare enough and our database is so poor that we can't make any definitive statements on how climate change may be affecting them, but one would expect to see cold-season severe weather events become increasingly common farther to the north in a warming climate.

That is a logical statement but subject to the same related issues as to impacts on tropical storms and climate change issues (which is currently rejected by Dr. Gray). We are starting to see some unusual anomalies emerge in recent years (polar jet stream kinks also come to mind) weather wise and logic dictates that climate change, whether cooling or heating trends, will have an impact on the "normal" climatology of previously observed analog years.

Seems to me that tropical storms, on a global scale, will be much harder to quantify in terms of climate change issues because of the huge geographical area.  However, as far as the continental US, if we see a continued pattern, over the next two decades of events such as this one (much further to the North), an argument could be made, and supported, that a "regional" impact of climate change/warming in the US is this type of event.  Just making the observation that one such event does not make the case yet but we have to see what happens in the US in the coming decades.
Why isn't this a pleasant surprise. Nature had us all fooled that the season was done.

Quoting CybrTeddy:


I guess they've changed it recently, because Beryl last year ACE total as a subtropical cyclone wasn't included in the final seasonal toll.

I don't know when this change occurred but, like I wrote, it really doesn't make sense to me. Just because a subtropical storm gets a name, I can't see why it should be included in ACE scores. This storm will die when a larger and much more powerful (though unnamed) storm in the North Atlantic picks it up and it's carried eastward. If the NHC decides Melissa is tropical, then it makes sense to count it. This is the kind of thing that leads some to believe the NHC pads their ACE score numbers.
Quoting FunnelVortex:
Why isn't this a pleasant surprise. Nature had us all fooled that the season was done.


Maybe a surprise to you, but it's a rare November that doesn't have at least one named storm.
G'morning from Central OK,

Wow. Took the weekend off, and all heck breaks loose. Melissa, Tornadoes in the MidWest - geez.

Chilly today, with cold (and a potential for snow) later on this week.

Early Thanksgiving went off without a hitch.

You all play nice, I'm going to put on the heat.




This was through Nov 9



695 + 82(0.85) = 764.7...well short of 944..

I'm not sure how many of those 82 reports will be verified as individual tornados though.
A 0.85 ratio of reports to tornadoes may not be accurate in a situation with long tornadoes.
Quoting 63. sar2401:

Maybe a surprise to you, but it's a rare November that doesn't have at least one named storm.


You are forgetting that it is 2013
Quoting 62. sar2401:

I don't know when this change occurred but, like I wrote, it really doesn't make sense to me. Just because a subtropical storm gets a name, I can't see why it should be included in ACE scores. This storm will die when a larger and much more powerful (though unnamed) storm in the North Atlantic picks it up and it's carried eastward. If the NHC decides Melissa is tropical, then it makes sense to count it. This is the kind of thing that leads some to believe the NHC pads their ACE score numbers.


Not even a storm with 40 ACE points could save this season from being mediocre.
Quoting 67. ridikulous:


Not even a storm with 40 ACE points could save this season from being mediocre.


Pretty much, but I doubt the NHC would do that to pad ACE numbers. I distinctly remember being called out years ago by claiming that subtropical cyclones do in fact add to ACE, and I remember seeing storms like Otto not being added to the ACE count during their duration as a subtropical cyclone.

Where's TWAx13 when we need him? He's always here to set the record straight.
Don't think subtropical is included in ACE.
From MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY:

IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES
Quoting 60. weathermanwannabe:
Thank You Dr. for the Update and the historical stats.  Most interesting comment from your entry was the following:

These events are rare enough and our database is so poor that we can't make any definitive statements on how climate change may be affecting them, but one would expect to see cold-season severe weather events become increasingly common farther to the north in a warming climate.

That is a logical statement but subject to the same related issues as to impacts on tropical storms and climate change issues (which is currently rejected by Dr. Gray). We are starting to see some unusual anomalies emerge in recent years (polar jet stream kinks also come to mind) weather wise and logic dictates that climate change, whether cooling or heating trends, will have an impact on the "normal" climatology of previously observed analog years.

Seems to me that tropical storms, on a global scale, will be much harder to quantify in terms of climate change issues because of the huge geographical area.  However, as far as the continental US, if we see a continued pattern, over the next two decades of events such as this one (much further to the North), an argument could be made, and supported, that a "regional" impact of climate change/warming in the US is this type of event.  Just making the observation that one such even does not make the case yet but we have to see what happens in the US in the coming decades.


It could also be said that as our communication and information networks, including observations and data keeping, continue to increase in density; Finding an increasing number of 'rare-type' events would be expected to show up in the record, based simply on the data resolution of the observation dataset growing to encompass the new observed events.
Modis Imagery of "Melissa"

Quoting 67. ridikulous:


Not even a storm with 40 ACE points could save this season from being mediocre.


Welcome to the blog..
First post anyway..
Your welcome to your opinion.. :)
I think the word anomalysis fit's this changing climate..
JMO..
11/17/13 Gifford, IL Tornado Damage *Brett Adair HD*

Published on Nov 17, 2013
Several tornadoes ripped through parts of northern and central Illinois late Sunday morning to leave a trail of destruction that included leveled homes, overturned cars, several dozen injured and at least five fatalities.

Tornadoes were reported in Washington, Pekin, Peoria and other towns.

Illinois tornado caught on camera

Quoting 62. sar2401:

I don't know when this change occurred but, like I wrote, it really doesn't make sense to me. Just because a subtropical storm gets a name, I can't see why it should be included in ACE scores. This storm will die when a larger and much more powerful (though unnamed) storm in the North Atlantic picks it up and it's carried eastward. If the NHC decides Melissa is tropical, then it makes sense to count it. This is the kind of thing that leads some to believe the NHC pads their ACE score numbers.

Subtropical storms still display at least partial tropical characteristics, so
I think they should be included into the ACE count.

I'm not sure when the NHC began including them though; when I emailed this past spring, they weren't included into the ACE count (it's a common argument we have on wiki).
I hope people don't gloss over post #70, because it is a very simple stats concept that should be known/talked about more in the agw/cc/omg debate w.r.t records and extremes of weather.
Quoting 62. sar2401:

I don't know when this change occurred but, like I wrote, it really doesn't make sense to me. Just because a subtropical storm gets a name, I can't see why it should be included in ACE scores. This storm will die when a larger and much more powerful (though unnamed) storm in the North Atlantic picks it up and it's carried eastward. If the NHC decides Melissa is tropical, then it makes sense to count it. This is the kind of thing that leads some to believe the NHC pads their ACE score numbers.
Well, those of a conspiratorial, anti-government mindset who possess underdeveloped critical thinking skills may "...believe the NHC pads their...numbers", but I doubt the good people at the NHC lose a lot of sleep over worrying about what that crowd thinks. After all, their job is to do evidence-based science to keep the public safe, not waste their time mollifying the foil hat-wearing lunatic fringe.

FWIW, I, for one, believe ACE from STS's should be counted toward seasonal ACE.
Quoting 61. FunnelVortex:
Why isn't this a pleasant surprise. Nature had us all fooled that the season was done.

it is done just one last kick in the pants 2013 style
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Thank You Dr. for the Update and the historical stats.  Most interesting comment from your entry was the following:

These events are rare enough and our database is so poor that we can't make any definitive statements on how climate change may be affecting them, but one would expect to see cold-season severe weather events become increasingly common farther to the north in a warming climate.

That is a logical statement but subject to the same related issues as to impacts on tropical storms and climate change issues (which is currently rejected by Dr. Gray). We are starting to see some unusual anomalies emerge in recent years (polar jet stream kinks also come to mind) weather wise and logic dictates that climate change, whether cooling or heating trends, will have an impact on the "normal" climatology of previously observed analog years.

Seems to me that tropical storms, on a global scale, will be much harder to quantify in terms of climate change issues because of the huge geographical area.  However, as far as the continental US, if we see a continued pattern, over the next two decades of events such as this one (much further to the North), an argument could be made, and supported, that a "regional" impact of climate change/warming in the US is this type of event.  Just making the observation that one such event does not make the case yet but we have to see what happens in the US in the coming decades.

OK, using that reasoning, what does 2012 and this year, when we've had an unusually low number of tornadoes, mean in terms of climate change? You are confusing several large tornadoes in an otherwise below average season as being indicative of some kind of global change. Dr. Master's statement is self-contradictory. While admitting our records are so poor that we don't know how common "cold season" tornadoes are, he makes the jump to another unsupported statement that we should expect to see more "cold season" storms become increasingly common due to global warming. It is not possible statistically to say an event is becoming more common without a reasonable base line of events to compare. In another century, we'll have enough data to have a better idea of what "common" is. Until then, we're guessing about numbers and how they may or may not be affected by climate change.
Quoting 77. Neapolitan:
Well, those of a conspiratorial, anti-government mindset who possess underdeveloped critical thinking skills may "...believe the NHC pads their...numbers", but I doubt the good people at the NHC lose a lot of sleep over worrying about what that crowd thinks. After all, their job is to do evidence-based science to keep the public safe, not waste their time mollifying the foil hat-wearing lunatic fringe.

FWIW, I, for one, believe ACE from STS's should be counted toward seasonal ACE.


Some people get suspicious when they see a storm looking like this getting called a STS with fronts still attached to the system....



Quoting 63. sar2401:

Maybe a surprise to you, but it's a rare November that doesn't have at least one named storm.
Rare? I don't think so. In actuality, no named storms formed in the Atlantic in 2012, 2010, 2007, 2006, 2003, 2002, 2000, 1997, or 1995. That is, nine of the previous 18 Novembers--exactly half--have seen no November storms form. (There were, however, two in 2001, and three in 2005.)
(VIDEO) Large Hail Batters Town In Australia's Sunshine Coast Today!
Link
I read and read and read comments and I'm amazed beyond amazed.
Maybe the ENSO doesn't work the way that's accepted...then again south surface winds now evidently occur on the north side of surface lows in the Con US...but only into the hundreds of wrong forecasts not reality.
The change occurred on September 30th when a large CME/Solar Flare erupted from the sun. The energy found it's way to the Equitoral Atlantic Ocean were a Moderate La Nina had been taking place throughout the summer. That weekend it changed from a Moderate La Nina to a Weak El Nino...
...and over the past week it's changed back to a Weak La Nina. Could that be your connection? A lot of what everyone thought about ENSO be completely and utterly false. What I've learned is...
No Nino's don't exist
It doesn't take 3 months for the atmosphere to respond to an ENSO change it happens almost instantly.
The Atlantic ENSO has a great influence on daily weather
Both the Pacific ENSO and Atlantic ENSO's work in conjuction to influence the weather
Quite possibly the CME/Solar Flare caused energy to be transferred into the future in another dimension and then back into the present...maybe CME's/Solar flares alter time somehow.
If you think that's crazy then I'll remember your south winds on the north side of a surface low all winter long and watch your forecast goto the gutter...like it has so many times since 2011. I can't ever imagine why....
Quoting 80. VR46L:


Some people get suspicious when they see a storm looking like this getting called a STS with fronts still attached to the system....
I suppose. But then again, those same people "get suspicious" when they see pretty much anything.

As has been said before, there are two conspiracy theory groups here on WU. One side believes there exists an NOAA plot to name systems that shouldn't be named in order to "pad their numbers". The other side just as equivocally believes there's an NOAA plot to not name systems that should be named to "protect the insurance companies". Wouldn't it be great if the two sides could meet somewhere--maybe the local Sizzler--and hash things out? Imagine how much less time we'd have to waste debating such nonsense...
Quoting 80. VR46L:


Some people get suspicious when they see a storm looking like this getting called a STS with fronts still attached to the system....




The center of circulation is actually removed from the thermal gradient where the fronts are found by a small distance, which would support the subtropical storm classification.

Quoting SeALWx:


It could also be said that as our communication and information networks, including observations and data keeping, continue to increase in density; Finding an increasing number of 'rare-type' events would be expected to show up in the record, based simply on the data resolution of the observation dataset growing to encompass the new observed events.

Indeed. I responded to this point in another post. Alabama is a good example. Tornadoes are not rare at all in November. It's our third most active month for tornadoes, going back to 1950. Typically, the storms that occurred yesterday would have occurred in the Southeast, not Illinois. An unusually deep low further north and a strong and persistent warm cap here displaced our typical November storms further north. We now have radar coverage of the entire state, and anything that event remotely resembles a tornado is now picked up and classified. In the past, some farmer would have noticed a bunch of trees knocked down in his woods, but that would have been the end of it. 2011 was the worst tornado season here I've ever been through. Since then, the number of tornadoes in Alabama has been far below average. There is clearly a wide variability in the number of tornadoes in any one year, and it's impossible for anyone to state accurately that they are becoming more or less common until we have a much longer period of accurate records.

In what part of SE AL do you live? I'm in Eufaula.
Geez.... Has this thing been de-numbered as an invest yet?...

Total and Average Number of
Tropical Storms by Month (1851 to 2011)



-Month- -Number recorded- -Average per year-

January through April 5 <0.05
May 18 0.1
June 82 0.5
July 114 0.7
August 362 2.3
September 555 3.5
October 323 2.0
November 87 0.5
December 16 0.1

Source: NOAA FAQ

More like once every 10 years... Go back farther than a few decades.

Quoting 81. Neapolitan:
Rare? I don't think so. In actuality, no named storms formed in the Atlantic in 2012, 2010, 2007, 2006, 2003, 2002, 2000, 1997, or 1995. That is, nine of the previous 18 Novembers--exactly half--have seen no November storms form. (There were, however, two in 2001, and three in 2005.)
Quoting pcola57:


Thanks sar.. :)
I appreciate the perspective..
PS..
I'm not Doug.. :)

Whoops...sorry. I get you Pensacola guys mixed up sometimes. :-)
Yeah , it was labelled as an invest on the NOAA site, but it didn't have a number, now it's gone--strange.(Ans. to post # 87).
Quoting 90. originalLT:
Yeah , it was labelled as an invest on the NOAA site, but it didn't have a number, now it's gone--strange.(Ans. to post # 87).



Label was IN1... Whatever that means.
Quoting 91. Torito:



Label was IN1... Whatever that means.


And so the mystery begins.
AWCN11 CWTO 181654
Updated weather summary for all of Southern Ontario and the
National Capital Region issued by Environment Canada
At 11:54 AM EST Monday 18 November 2013.

------------------------------------------------- ------------
==weather event discussion==

A major low pressure system tracking through Northeastern Ontario
early this morning affected much of Southern Ontario with showers,
thunderstorms and gusty winds. Wind warnings are continued for
portions of Southern Ontario this morning.

In addition, several power outages were reported across the area due
to the high winds. At 11 A.M. the hydro one website indicated that
87,576 of their customers were still without power.

Below are maximum wind gusts associated with the storm system as of
11 A.M. EST Monday.

Location wind gust (in kilometre per hour)
Port Colborne 106
Long Point 100
Western island 104
Cove Island 95
Elora 89
Toronto Island 87
Kitchener-Waterloo 87
Wiarton 85
Sarnia 83
Goderich 83
Toronto Pearson 83
Windsor 82
Borden 82
London 82

This weather summary contains preliminary information and may not
constitute an official or final report.

END/OSPC

NWS Gaylord has confirmed an EF-0 in Otsego County yesterday, and this is the farthest north there's been a tornado in Michigan in November, or this late in the year, in the period of modern tornado records (1950-present). The tornado closed I-75.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php ?wfo=apx&storyid=98212&source=0

Jeff Masters
In fact... The total amount of tropical systems forming in November in the updated version here shows that they are, indeed, rare.



Link
Thanks Torito, yeah, never heard of that designation.
Quoting 94. JeffMasters:
NWS Gaylord has confirmed an EF-0 in Otsego County yesterday, and this is the farthest north there's been a tornado in Michigan in November, or this late in the year, in the period of modern tornado records (1950-present). The tornado closed I-75.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php ?wfo=apx&storyid=98212&source=0

Jeff Masters
weird 2013
Quoting 70. SeALWx:


It could also be said that as our communication and information networks, including observations and data keeping, continue to increase in density; Finding an increasing number of 'rare-type' events would be expected to show up in the record, based simply on the data resolution of the observation dataset growing to encompass the new observed events.


Not likely. A storm system of this magnitude would not have been missed within the last 100 years.
Quoting Torito:
Total and Average Number of
Tropical Storms by Month (1851%u20132011)



-Month- -Number recorded- -Average per year-

January %u2014 April 5 <0.05
May 18 0.1
June 82 0.5
July 114 0.7
August 362 2.3
September 555 3.5
October 323 2.0
November 87 0.5
December 16 0.1

Source: NOAA FAQ

More like once every 10 years... Go back farther than a few decades.


Thankfully, I don't normally see his posts, but his predilection for cherry picking numbers and time periods to support his point is well known.
Quoting 94. JeffMasters:
NWS Gaylord has confirmed an EF-0 in Otsego County yesterday, and this is the farthest north there's been a tornado in Michigan in November, or this late in the year, in the period of modern tornado records (1950-present). The tornado closed I-75.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php ?wfo=apx&storyid=98212&source=0

Jeff Masters


Fortunately.. Damage appears to be extremely limited, and likely caused no injuries, as the path of this thing missed the road.



Quoting 99. sar2401:

Thankfully, I don't normally see his posts, but his predilection for cherry picking numbers and time periods to support his point is well known.


Data is not worth looking at when you go back only a few years.... That is one of my peeves that I will constantly correct. :)

Hello from wind damaged S C IL. Some of the strongest straight line winds I've ever experienced yesterday. School ball fields lost all their relatively new scoreboards, my plant had the roof on our older rounded roof section peeled off - it directly faced the direction the winds came from. A major road out of town is still closed because most of the higher voltage lines were knocked over on to it. Unfortunately, someone's house burnt completely, because firefighters couldn't get to it due to downed lines. My neighbors and I had many downed limbs, fortunately we were luckier than they were, ours just fell in yard.

See now have a second EF-4, first ever Nov. ones in IL.
Hey Dr. Masters... Do you know what the label IN1 means when designating invests? You are probably the man to ask, considering you running in the hurricane hunters for years.

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

B. 18/1145Z

C. 13.2N

D. 58.1W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY DUE TO LACK OF
SUFFICIENT CONVECTION YIELDING A DT OF 0.0 BASED ON LESS THAN 2/10
BANDING. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LIDDICK

It could also be said that as our communication and information networks, including observations and data keeping, continue to increase in density; Finding an increasing number of 'rare-type' events would be expected to show up in the record


"rare" in this case is the timing and location.....past observation methods and networks were enough to confirm the rarity...if we were talking about judging size, intensity and such i would agree with you more....
Quoting 102. dabirds:
Hello from wind damaged S C IL. Some of the strongest straight line winds I've ever experienced yesterday. School ball fields lost all their relatively new scoreboards, my plant had the roof on our older rounded roof section peeled off - it directly faced the direction the winds came from. A major road out of town is still closed because most of the higher voltage lines were knocked over on to it. Unfortunately, someone's house burnt completely, because firefighters couldn't get to it due to downed lines. My neighbors and I had many downed limbs, fortunately we were luckier than they were, ours just fell in yard.

See now have a second EF-4, first ever Nov. ones in IL.


Yesterday, in MD, we had TS force winds rip through the area with a bit of heavy rain. It was very nerve-racking to see tree limbs nearly hitting the house every minute.

14L/STS/M/CX
Quoting ClimateChange:


Not likely. A storm system of this magnitude would not have been missed within the last 100 years.

You missed the point. It's not only EF-3's or above that are included in the records for total number of tornadoes. The point was that a large but unknown number of EF-0 and EF-1 tornadoes occurred in the days before more or less complete radar coverage of the CONUS, and many of these only caused damage to places that were uninhabited or the damage was mostly confined to woods and farmlands, so it was never reported, or was only a local event. Although I don't know for certain, I think a search of newspapers before 1950 would reveal a much larger number of small "cyclones" being reported in the local news than the NWS has in their database.
Quoting 89. sar2401:

Whoops...sorry. I get you Pensacola guys mixed up sometimes. :-)


All good sar.. :)
Quoting 80. VR46L:


Some people get suspicious when they see a storm looking like this getting called a STS with fronts still attached to the system....







I see your point VR, but in this orientation that stationary front is mostly signifying an elongation of the low circulation, which is quite normal in a mixed baro/trop environment, r.e. STS.
Found an interesting book on naming of tropical systems, including invests...


It may have something on this strange numbering...

page 147.

Link
Quoting 99. sar2401:

Thankfully, I don't normally see his posts, but his predilection for cherry picking numbers and time periods to support his point is well known.
Given that only half of the Novembers since the start of the current "active period" in 1995 have seen tropical storms form in the Atlantic, it's highly inaccurate to claim, "it's a rare November that doesn't have at least one named storm". That is, an event that occurs 50% of the time isn't a rarity by any definition of that word. Agree or disagree. But facts are facts...
Quoting dabirds:
Hello from wind damaged S C IL. Some of the strongest straight line winds I've ever experienced yesterday. School ball fields lost all their relatively new scoreboards, my plant had the roof on our older rounded roof section peeled off - it directly faced the direction the winds came from. A major road out of town is still closed because most of the higher voltage lines were knocked over on to it. Unfortunately, someone's house burnt completely, because firefighters couldn't get to it due to downed lines. My neighbors and I had many downed limbs, fortunately we were luckier than they were, ours just fell in yard.

See now have a second EF-4, first ever Nov. ones in IL.

I was following the storms on radar and it looked like the area around Peoria was really the bullseye. Although the tornadoes were the big story, I've hardly see any mention in the media of the damage that straight line winds caused, unless they were showing pictures of obvious straight line wind damage and saying it was from a tornado. The straight line winds were at or above 60 mph all the way from your place to the East Coast yesterday, and I suspect the damage from those straight line winds will far exceed the tornado damage. Glad to hear you and your house are OK. I'm sorry you got a chance to live in Alabama for a day, since they are the types of storms we fear here.
Quoting 88. Torito:
Total and Average Number of
Tropical Storms by Month (1851 to 2011)



-Month- -Number recorded- -Average per year-

January through April 5 <0.05
May 18 0.1
June 82 0.5
July 114 0.7
August 362 2.3
September 555 3.5
October 323 2.0
November 87 0.5
December 16 0.1

Source: NOAA FAQ

More like once every 10 years... Go back farther than a few decades.

You've highlighted December, but we wereof course speaking of November. Now, the numbers you provide speak of a long-term average of 0.5 named storms per November. IOW, half of the years in the record saw no November storms. And that--again--makes it inaccurate to claim that it's rare to see a November without a storm in the Atlantic. That's all I'm saying.

Moving on...
Quoting 110. Torito:
Found an interesting book on naming of tropical systems, including invests...


It may have something on this strange numbering...

page 147.

Link


Brian Norcross..
Ebook..
Thanks Torito..:)
117. VR46L
Quoting 84. Neapolitan:
I suppose. But then again, those same people "get suspicious" when they see pretty much anything.

As has been said before, there are two conspiracy theory groups here on WU. One side believes there exists an NOAA plot to name systems that shouldn't be named in order to "pad their numbers". The other side just as equivocally believes there's an NOAA plot to not name systems that should be named to "protect the insurance companies". Wouldn't it be great if the two sides could meet somewhere--maybe the local Sizzler--and hash things out? Imagine how much less time we'd have to waste debating such nonsense...


It is nonsense ,if there weren't folk trying to make political statements out of every point of ACE

Quoting 91. Torito:



Label was IN1... Whatever that means.


I noticed this.

Lastnight it was a really cute, tight storm on Barbados radar.

And too from keeping floaters in my blog.. I think IN1 = Invest1. We've seen at times where NOAA declares an invest but NAVY doesn't & it is simply called invest. As they've upgraded their products all the addresses have become storm specific. Used to, that invest would be on what ever floater was available & the floater number would be encoded. Now the addresses don't have what floater # but which storm number. I think this naming system is to help start getting these invests to play better with the newer products, probably file better too...total guess.
Quoting JeffMasters:
NWS Gaylord has confirmed an EF-0 in Otsego County yesterday, and this is the farthest north there's been a tornado in Michigan in November, or this late in the year, in the period of modern tornado records (1950-present). The tornado closed I-75.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php ?wfo=apx&storyid=98212&source=0

Jeff Masters

I see nothing in the link to indicate I-75 was closed, but the damage from this tornado is a good example of the type that would have never been recorded before 1960 or even later, when that area got radar coverage. It destroyed no structures, injured no one, and just knocked over some trees. I can see two farmers from that area in 1920 down at the general store commenting that the wind sure was bad yesterday, and both had some trees down in the woods. If there was an enterprising small town newspaper reporter down having coffee with the boys, it might even have gotten a mention on the back page - but that's as far as the report would have gotten.
Quoting pcola57:


Brian Norcross..
Ebook..
Thanks Torito..:)

Thanks indeed. I had no idea Norcross had a book out by this name. A heck of a deal for $7.59.
Quoting 70. SeALWx:


It could also be said that as our communication and information networks, including observations and data keeping, continue to increase in density; Finding an increasing number of 'rare-type' events would be expected to show up in the record, based simply on the data resolution of the observation dataset growing to encompass the new observed events.
Your comment assumes that "data resolution" has increased quickly enough to account for the observed increases in both the severity and frequency of extreme weather events around the globe.

I don't think it has.

Of course, there's no doubt that many F-0 and F-1 tornadoes were missed in the decades leading up until now, with more missed the further back one looks. But it wasn't a sudden increase in resolution, for instance, that caused what in 2011 turned out to be the second largest tornado outbreak in Alabama history occur just twelve days before what turned out to be the first largest.No, those numbers werereal, and not simply non-reliable artifacts of improved observation; even if some of the listed tornadoes would have been missed, those outbreaks would still be listed as #1 and #2.

The atmosphere has changed, and the climate is changing. People may dispute the reasons for those changes, but they can't dispute that the changes themselves are happening.
123. VR46L
Quoting 109. SeALWx:




I see your point VR, but in this orientation that stationary front is mostly signifying an elongation of the low circulation, which is quite normal in a mixed baro/trop environment, r.e. STS.


Cheers Thanks !

I guess I belong to the school that unless its tropical it should not be named from the tropical list . But I hope for the wish casters, they get a decent fish out of it but I doubt it will last!
126. yoboi
Quoting 122. Neapolitan:
Your comment assumes that "data resolution" has increased quickly enough to account for the observed increases in both the severity and frequency of extreme weather events around the globe.

I don't think it has.

Of course, there's no doubt that many F-0 and F-1 tornadoes were missed in the decades leading up until now, with more missed the further back one looks. But it wasn't a sudden increase in resolution, for instance, that caused what in 2011 turned out to be the second largest tornado outbreak in Alabama history occur just twelve days before what turned out to be the first largest.No, those numbers werereal, and not simply non-reliable artifacts of improved observation; even if some of the listed tornadoes would have been missed, those outbreaks would still be listed as #1 and #2.

The atmosphere has changed, and the climate is changing. People may dispute the reasons for those changes, but they can't dispute that the changes themselves are happening.



Has the Climate ever been static?????
Too cloudy to see the launch from home. Had good sound.
Quoting 122. Neapolitan:
Your comment assumes that "data resolution" has increased quickly enough to account for the observed increases in both the severity and frequency of extreme weather events around the globe.

I don't think it has.

Of course, there's no doubt that many F-0 and F-1 tornadoes were missed in the decades leading up until now, with more missed the further back one looks. But it wasn't a sudden increase in resolution, for instance, that caused what in 2011 turned out to be the second largest tornado outbreak in Alabama history occur just twelve days before what turned out to be the first largest.No, those numbers werereal, and not simply non-reliable artifacts of improved observation; even if some of the listed tornadoes would have been missed, those outbreaks would still be listed as #1 and #2.

The atmosphere has changed, and the climate is changing. People may dispute the reasons for those changes, but they can't dispute that the changes themselves are happening.


That is some mighty fine tapdancing that does nothing to address my point.

If you have more detailed observations entering an ever growing dataset, the resolution of that dataset ABSOLUTELY MUST gain the ability to show a larger deviation from the mean for any singular observation.

It is simple math. Not an opinion of mine...
18z Best Track for Melissa continues as Subtropical at 50kts.

AL, 14, 2013111818, , BEST, 0, 295N, 540W, 50, 987, SS
It is simple math. Not an opinion of mine...



math is only simple when the answer is proven.....might you show your work so to speak and give us examples of how today's data set has improved and to what extent the identifying of tornadoes
Quoting 84. Neapolitan:
I suppose. But then again, those same people "get suspicious" when they see pretty much anything.

As has been said before, there are two conspiracy theory groups here on WU. One side believes there exists an NOAA plot to name systems that shouldn't be named in order to "pad their numbers". The other side just as equivocally believes there's an NOAA plot to not name systems that should be named to "protect the insurance companies". Wouldn't it be great if the two sides could meet somewhere--maybe the local Sizzler--and hash things out? Imagine how much less time we'd have to waste debating such nonsense...


You forgot the group that believes the US is using HAARP and weather modification to control these storms for political and financial advantage. Of course, the other two groups think they're crazy, but when your talking about conspiracy theorists you're basically just talking about different version of crazy. :)
Radar animation of the outbreak yesterday.

Quoting 128. SeALWx:


That is some mighty fine tapdancing that does nothing to address my point.

If you have more detailed observations entering an ever growing dataset, the resolution of that dataset ABSOLUTELY MUST gain the ability to show a larger deviation from the mean for any singular observation.

It is simple math. Not an opinion of mine...
I'd say the ones "tapdancing" are those looking desperately for some way--any way--to explain away the real observed increases in the number and severity of extreme weather events, as that allows them to more easily believe that we humans aren't gumming up the works.

Of course things must be looked at objectively and scientifically and mathematically. And, also of course, no one--including me--is in any way claiming that global warming "caused" yesterday's outbreak. But it's absolutely ludicrous to claim that that event only seemed extreme and unprecedented because more people are watching, and with better equipment--just as it's ludicrous to make the same claim about Haiyan, or Australia's insane heat wave, or this summer's Boulder flood event, or the 2010 Russian heat wave, or 2011's monstrous tornado outbreaks, or September's never-before-seen Black Hills Blizzard, or 2012's Sandy, or that year's derecho, or that spring's crippling March heat wave, or so on, and so on, and so on.

The fact is, none of these events are taking place inside a bubble; when looked as a whole, it's clear as I said earlier that the atmosphere has changed, and the climate is changing in response. So, again, people may dispute the causes of those changes if they wish--but none can credibly dispute the changes themselves, no matter how much they talk of deviations from the mean...
Well SAR, had a nice long answer for you, but for second time I mentioned New Minden EF-4, my post was ate by nonresponding WU. Anyway, damage from straight line more common in this area, even in peak season IL rarely sees EF-4s. This front came through, I heard, at 65mph. 30 - 50 would be more common. It was unfortunate the elderly brother and sister were caught in their farmhouse by it, but it did stay in more rural area. Had it formed a few miles further NE, or stayed on the ground longer, it would have been near Centralia, which is roughly the population of Washington. Would have been far worse damage from it.
Quoting 45. pcola57:
Thanks barb for that post on"Cleopatra" in the Med..
I hope you don't mind if I bring that forward from the last blog.. :)

Post # 451..

It is unusual..


Well, lol, I didn't want to post European weather, even when it's severe, right on the first page of doc's fresh blog about those terrible tornados in US' midwest. ...



But here a little update on cyclone Cleopatra over Sardinia right now. Unfortunately a woman has died when trapped in her home by floods, two persons are missing [edit according to a local tweet]: two persons dead now and more are missing]. Situation seems to be very severe on this island in the Mediterranean, an island which is quite large but nevertheless a bit overlooked in public attention. I've seen some unconfirmed (!!) news that locally up to 400mm (more than 15 inches) of accumulated rain were dumped by Cleopatra onto Sardegna (edit: some fresh data of 250mm/370mm here). - In any case: widespread (or even complete) power outages and floodings, destroyed roads and brigdes. And rain should persist at least over night. [Edit: looking at the satellites most of the precipation apparently is now offshore, but more should move in from the west tomorrow.]


Lightning over Sardinia (right corner below). Saved animation.


Foto di Pascaleddu Monni. Source.


Source.


Source: Twitter.



Edit: Wiki got some informations about Sardinia and average rainfall per anno over there, mentioning: "The climate is heavily influenced also by the vicinity of the Gulf of Genoa (barometric low) and the relative proximity of the Atlantic Ocean. Sardinia being relatively large and hilly, weather is not uniform; in particular the East is drier, but paradoxically it suffers the worst rainstorms: in Autumn 2009, it rained more than 200 mm (7.9 in) in a single day in Siniscola. ..."


Sardinia: average rainfall per anno.

Edit: New tweet abouth the xccumulated rainfall because of "Cleopatra":

3B Meteo %u200F@3BMeteo 2m
Impressionanti accumuli pluviometrici: 245mm a Seui, nuorese, 142mm a Monte Arci, 140mm a Sadali, nel cagliaritano
GFS looks cold for the mid Atlantic early next week (11/25 or so). Not unprecedented, just a seasonably intense arctic shot. The 12Z GFS also looks cold a week later Dec 3 or so but that's fortuneteller territory.
Haiyan,s circulation is expected to be a winter storm for the U.S. This is not it, but it looks like very cold temps for northern U.S.

It would be quite amusing if Melissa became the strongest storm of the season.
141. MTWX
Quoting 56. Patrap:


Curious if the Paducah Tornado's path was continuous, or multiple tornadoes spawned from the same storm...

Still a wicked outbreak, especially being just before Thanksgiving!
Quoting 119. sar2401:

I see nothing in the link to indicate I-75 was closed, but the damage from this tornado is a good example of the type that would have never been recorded before 1960 or even later, when that area got radar coverage. It destroyed no structures, injured no one, and just knocked over some trees. I can see two farmers from that area in 1920 down at the general store commenting that the wind sure was bad yesterday, and both had some trees down in the woods. If there was an enterprising small town newspaper reporter down having coffee with the boys, it might even have gotten a mention on the back page - but that's as far as the report would have gotten.


Like it really matters, but . . . SPC storm reports from 11/17/13:

2105; UNK; 1 SE WATERS; OTSEGO, MI; 4489 8469; BOTH SOUTHBOUND AND NORTHBOUND LANES OF I-75 CLOSED DUE TO TREES DOWN OVER INTERSTATE. BETWEEN MILE MARKER 269 AND 270. (APX)

2127; 2 S WATERS; OTSEGO, MI; 4487 8470; EF-0 CONFIRMED JUST SOUTH OF EXIT 270 ALONG INTERSTATE 75 IN EXTREME SOUTHERN OSTEGO COUNTY. TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN JUST PAST MILE MARKER 268 AND TRAVELED FOR JUST OVER O (APX)
Quoting 140. Halcyon19:
It would be quite amusing if Melissa became the strongest storm of the season.


Normally I'd find that disturbing and not amusing but over water, well forecast, and with ample time for shipping to avoid it, I'd have to agree this would be a better strongest storm of the season than most other
plausible scenarios.
Quoting 119. sar2401:

I see nothing in the link to indicate I-75 was closed, but the damage from this tornado is a good example of the type that would have never been recorded before 1960 or even later, when that area got radar coverage. It destroyed no structures, injured no one, and just knocked over some trees. I can see two farmers from that area in 1920 down at the general store commenting that the wind sure was bad yesterday, and both had some trees down in the woods. If there was an enterprising small town newspaper reporter down having coffee with the boys, it might even have gotten a mention on the back page - but that's as far as the report would have gotten.


My neighbor who was driving down from up north after deer hunting last night got detoured off of I-75 due to the tornado.

Jeff Masters
Got in touch with my family in Michigan and they are OK. Minor wind damage. Although a friend was in the same position as yours Dr. Masters. He got snowed in too and didn't make it back, yet.
How's your weather Keeper?
Quoting 139. hydrus:
Haiyan,s circulation is expected to be a winter storm for the U.S. ......




Wait, what?
Quoting JeffMasters:


My neighbor who was driving down from up north after deer hunting last night got detoured off of I-75 due to the tornado.

Jeff Masters


Yikes Dr. M., your neighbor must really enjoy hunting if they were willing to risk severe weather for some deer lol. Most of Michigan was under that slight to moderate risk. Glad they are ok though. Plenty of high wind reports across much of the state.

What happens if the Volcano scientists just found under Antarctica decides to become more active?

What kind of Ice is there? Is that land ice or just sea ice? Just wondering if it decided to get really active if that could precipitate a rise in sea levels?
Quoting 152. Dakster:
What happens if the Volcano scientists just found under Antarctica decides to become more active?

What kind of Ice is there? Is that land ice or just sea ice? Just wondering if it decided to get really active if that could precipitate a rise in sea levels?


Land Ice and it wouldn't be a big deal. See here: volcano
Quoting 148. PedleyCA:
How's your weather Keeper?


windy and slow cooling
maybe a few flurries overnight

soon it will just stay cold
Two working days left......Not like I'm counting
235,000 out in Michigan

available at www.ConsumersEnergy.com/outagemap.
Because of the magnitude of the damage, some customers who have been without electric service since Sunday afternoon will not have their power restored until late Friday. Harder hit areas may not have their electric service restored until Saturday. Estimates will be updated as assessment and repairs continue. Additional storm activity may prolong restoration times.

Quoting 152. Dakster:
What happens if the Volcano scientists just found under Antarctica decides to become more active?

What kind of Ice is there? Is that land ice or just sea ice? Just wondering if it decided to get really active if that could precipitate a rise in sea levels?


I read the article this morning

Link

I think it is land ice.
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
500 PM AST MON NOV 18 2013

...MELLISSA STRENGTHENS OVER THE OPEN CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 54.2W
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
Quoting 154. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


windy and slow cooling
maybe a few flurries overnight

soon it will just stay cold




Fall finally showed up here. No Rain yet here.
Quoting 156. tramp96:
235,000 out in Michigan

available at www.ConsumersEnergy.com/outagemap.
Because of the magnitude of the damage, some customers who have been without electric service since Sunday afternoon will not have their power restored until late Friday. Harder hit areas may not have their electric service restored until Saturday. Estimates will be updated as assessment and repairs continue. Additional storm activity may prolong restoration times.
tramp.....I feel you pain... I grew up in Ohio. Now south Florida. Been through the winter storms and hurricanes here... We don't appreciate "Power" until we don't have it... Hope you are restored soon.
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
500 PM AST MON NOV 18 2013

DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE CENTER OF MELISSA...ALBEIT
SOMEWHAT FRAGMENTED. WEAK ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAS BECOME
ESTABLISHED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE INNER-CORE REGION...
SUGGESTING THAT MELISSA IS TRYING TO MAKE THE TRANSITION TO A
TROPICAL STORM. IN ADDITION...EARLIER ASCAT OVERPASSES AT 1314Z AND
1408Z INDICATED THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS CONTRACTED
DOWN TO LESS THAN 80 NMI AND MAXIMUM WINDS WERE 50-51 KT IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. HOWEVER...BOTH OVERPASSES MISSED THE INNER
CORE WIND FIELD...WHICH MEANS THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS COULD
BE SMALLER AND THE PEAK WINDS COULD BE STRONGER. AFTER MELISSA
PASSED JUST EAST OF DRIFTING BUOY 41999 AT 1000Z...WHICH REPORTED A
PRESSURE OF 989.4 MB...THE PRESSURE AT THE BUOY HAS REMAINED AT OR
BELOW 993 MB SINCE ABOUT 1400Z AS MELISSA HAS MOVED FARTHER
AWAY...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE COULD STILL BE DEEPENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/08 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING THROUGH 36 H.
NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON MELISSA MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEN
ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD BY 36 H. MELISSA WILL LIKELY REMAIN A
SEPARATE ENTITY THROUGH 120 H AND NOT BE ABSORBED BY AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA. THE EXTRATROPICAL
TRACK IS BASED ON INPUT FROM THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

MELISSA HAS ABOUT 36 HOURS OR SO TO STRENGTHEN SOME MORE WHILE THE
CYCLONE REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER. ALTHOUGH SSTS WILL BE
DECREASING FROM THE CURRENT 27C TO AROUND 22-23C BY 36-48 H...THE
500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR -13C...WHICH IS MUCH COLDER THAN A
TYPICAL TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE...AND THAT SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND THE FORMATION OF ADDITONAL CONVECTION IN
THE INNER CORE REGION. AS A RESULT...MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE ON TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...THE
GFS-BASED SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS NOW INDICATING THAT THE 850-200
MB VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL DROP SHARPLY FROM THE CURRENT 30 KT TO
LESS THAN 10 KT IN THE 18-24 H TIME FRAME...AND THAT IS WHEN THE
CYCLONE COULD REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY...AND POSSIBLY EVEN OBTAIN
HURRICANE STRENGTH. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER 48 HOURS AS
MELISSA MOVES OVER SSTS LESS THAN 20C...INTO A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS...AND EXPERIENCE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR
AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE OFF OF THE EAST COAST
OF NORTH AMERICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 29.8N 54.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 30.7N 54.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 32.3N 53.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 34.9N 50.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 38.0N 46.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 44.5N 36.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/1800Z 50.0N 34.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 23/1800Z 57.0N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
162. VR46L
Quoting 155. PalmBeachWeather:
Two working days left......Not like I'm counting


LOL ! Enjoy it Your retirement :)

MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE ON TUESDAY.

Link
PalmBeachWeather T-2 DAYS
Us Americans have so many words that are are to spell, let alone pronounce... For example... November (Jim) salmon, February, Wednesday, Library, ....We need to get it together
Quoting 102. dabirds:
Hello from wind damaged S C IL. Some of the strongest straight line winds I've ever experienced yesterday. School ball fields lost all their relatively new scoreboards, my plant had the roof on our older rounded roof section peeled off - it directly faced the direction the winds came from. A major road out of town is still closed because most of the higher voltage lines were knocked over on to it. Unfortunately, someone's house burnt completely, because firefighters couldn't get to it due to downed lines. My neighbors and I had many downed limbs, fortunately we were luckier than they were, ours just fell in yard.

See now have a second EF-4, first ever Nov. ones in IL.



What a day yesterday, thoughts and prayers go out to all those impacted.

Tuscola, IL had a tornado yesterday about 3 miles to it's north. I was on the southern periphere of the storm were winds were anywhere from 70 - 100 mph, they got stronger as you moved to the north side of town, which was only 2 miles away from the core of tornado( which was on the ground from Route 45 to I-57. ( Easy EF3 damage along Hayes Rd. One 2 story brick house complete destroyed, another left standing with all trees uprooted and windows blown out and another wooden house lefts standing but had heavy EF1, light EF2 damage. Roof was gone, combine turned over. Numerous grain bins scattered all over. Gard rails off the interstate were striped off the ground and the utility poles were nearly all broken along the 1 mile path west to east.) No one was hurt or injured.

In the town of Tuscola itself the most north row of housing all had some sort of light siding damage, and there were large 2 to 3 foot diameter trees snapped in various places landing on a few trailers.

I watched this all from the porch at first, it looked like to me it was one giant Meso and I was on the south side of the tornado circulation as it moved northeast, but winds were I was at was easily 70mph, with maybe some 90 mph about .5 mile north of me were the siding was stripped. WHen it first rolled in sticks, leaves were falling from way up in the air as it started to rain , you could see the debris in the air being entrained into the storms circulation, I knew immediately then that it was not straight line winds in my area.

Numerous power lines down and Tuscola was the least affected community of the several mentioned with Washington, Gilford, Villa Grove, and numerous other small towns.



Quoting 164. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
PalmBeachWeather T-2 DAYS
YES...
Quoting 160. PalmBeachWeather:
tramp.....I feel you pain... I grew up in Ohio. Now south Florida. Been through the winter storms and hurricanes here... We don't appreciate "Power" until we don't have it... Hope you are restored soon.

I live further south than Michigan however I am headed to
Peoria Il to help get the power back on.
here comes the flurries ped

8 dead in Midwest storms; Brookport, Ill., was 'a sitting duck'
Latimes, by Matt Pearce, November 18, 2013, 1:00 p.m.

...For all the destruction in Washington, Ill., only one person had been reported killed there: The body of Steve Neubauer, 51, was found near his home.

About 200 miles south of Washington, an apparent tornado that killed area livestock also took the lives of Joseph Hoy, 80, and his sister Frances Hoy, 78, at their farmhouse.

To the north, in Michigan, where hundreds of thousands of residents lost power after intense winds swept the state, Ryan Allan Rickman, 21, of Dewey, Okla., was killed after his car was crushed by a tree, Jackson County Sheriff Steven Rand told the Chicago Tribune. Rickman was passing through the area when the tree toppled, crushing the roof of his car to the level of the doors, Rand said.

"He was in the wrong place at the wrong time," the sheriff said.

In Shiawassee County, about 75 miles north, the body of Philip Daniel Smith, 59, of Perry was found wrapped in high-voltage power lines, said Sheriff's Lt. David Kirk.


------------------------

Very sorry for all those who died and their families. But it's amazing that in all those rubble left in Washington IL only one fatality was found.
172. VR46L
I just want to say the GFS said on saturday it would be snowing in the Northern half of Ireland tonight ... It got it Right ... I can't prove it as its dark and the radar is showing rain here right now ...
Cold turkey, anyone? Here comes the coldest anomalies--and obviously the coldest weather--some parts of the nation have seen since the May cold snap that affected much of the same area:

CPC

Meanwhile, Alaska continues it's relative toastiness...
Quoting 173. Neapolitan:
Cold turkey, anyone? Here comes the coldest anomalies--and obviously the coldest weather--some parts of the nation have seen since the May cold snap that affected much of the same area:

CPC

Meanwhile, Alaska continues it's relative toastiness...


Great for the holidays..love it
Because Melissa is being fueled by atmospheric instability instead of sea surface temperatures, what we'll likely see over the next few days is it maintain in intensity or take on a slightly degraded appearance during the day (when SSTs are warm and the air temperature becomes warm => lowest instability) and intensify at night (when SSTs are warm and the air is cool). Think Chris 2012.

Quoting 173. Neapolitan:
Cold turkey, anyone? Here comes the coldest anomalies--and obviously the coldest weather--some parts of the nation have seen since the May cold snap that affected much of the same area:

CPC

Meanwhile, Alaska continues it's relative toastiness...

Check WXRISK on FB calling for a possible Great Lakes blizzard
Quoting 176. tramp96:

Check WXRISK on FB calling for a possible Great Lakes blizzard
no no no no no
I think its incredible looking at the pictures that only 8 people have died. Think that says so much about the advancements of weather warnings.
Thanks Sky for your post # 118 that may explain that "strange" invest # on the disturbance that was NE or East of Barbados .
18Z GFS running now here is hr 18 lets see what it shows for the thanksgiving weekend I guess

Quoting 178. VAbeachhurricanes:
I think its incredible looking at the pictures that only 8 people have died. Think that says so much about the advancements of weather warnings.
it would be nice to get it down to 0

one day it will
Quoting 173. Neapolitan:
Cold turkey, anyone? Here comes the coldest anomalies--and obviously the coldest weather--some parts of the nation have seen since the May cold snap that affected much of the same area:

CPC

Meanwhile, Alaska continues it's relative toastiness...


These temperature anomalies and position reminds me of some excellent setups for devestating Nor'Easters. 1993 Ring a bell? Lets see what spins up.
This was an F3 tornado that struck Riegelwood, NC on November 16, 2006..right up the road from me..I remember this very well..

Tornado kills at least eight in NC
Columbus County Tornado Damage (Nov. 16, 2006)
RELATED

Video From Mobile Home Park, Riegelwood, N.C.
March 28, 1984, Tornado Outbreak

[search] Site Search
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Raleigh — A tornado flipped cars, shredded trees and ripped mobile homes to pieces in the little riverside community of Riegelwood early Thursday, killing at least eight people, authorities said.

Kip Godwin, chairman of the Columbus County Board of Commissioners, said just before 5 p.m. that authorities have mostly concluded their search efforts, and they have accounted for everyone on their list of missing persons.

A total of 19 people, including four children, were treated for storm-related injuries and sent to hospitals in four counties, authorities said late Thursday afternoon.

"There is a full gamut of injuries that are involved -- head, chest, abdomen, extremities," said Dr. Sam Spicer with New Hanover Medical Center.

Two of the youngest children, ages 2 and 3, were transferred to Pitt Memorial Hospital in Greenville. A third child, age 2, was transferred to UNC Hospitals in Chapel Hill.

Rescue workers used heavy construction equipment to search for bodies amid the wreckage. Searchers had found eight bodies in the wreckage by late afternoon, and Godwin said, "We're still reserving the right that it may change."

The tornado hit a mobile home park on Holly Tree Lane and Pretty Branch Lane -- about a mile from the Cape Fear River -- and left an extensive area covered with debris. Godwin said tractors and backhoes were being brought into the area to help remove debris and search for survivors.

Gov. Mike Easley activated the State Emergency Response Team Thursday morning and dispatched emergency crews to assist affected counties. He said he likely wouldn't activate the National Guard because Highway Patrol and local authorities could secure the area.

"This devastating storm has resulted in loss of life and injuries in several communities," Easley said. "We have mobilized to make sure these cities and towns can fully respond to critical needs, that any disrupted basic services are rapidly restored and people can start recovery efforts as soon as possible."

As local officials are able to assess the situation in their areas, he said, damage assessment teams would be dispatched as requested by county officials. Information from the assessment teams would be used to determine what steps would be taken on a state level and whether a federal disaster declaration is needed, the governor said.

Small Community Had Little Warning

County commissioners said Riegelwood has no sirens to warn of severe weather.

"I'm sure it caught them off guard, and they didn't have a lot of time to take cover," Godwin said.

It is estimated that the tornado caused destruction in a path of about three-quarters of a mile long and about 300 yards wide, damaged up to 40 homes and destroyed many others.

"It would get several trailers and skip two, and get more," Alton Edwards, a member of the volunteer Acme-Delco-Riegelwood Fire and Rescue team, said of the early morning tornado that struck "with very little warning."

"It almost looked like the mobile homes had exploded," he said. "There were cars on top of one another. It's just about as bad as it gets."

Because of the extensive loss of life, the National Weather Service has personnel flying in from its headquarters in Oklahoma to do an aerial survey to try and determine the tornado's speed and size.

The Cape Fear Chapter of the American Red Cross and county emergency management officials opened a shelter at Acme-Delco Elementary School, at 16337 Old Lake Road in Riegelwood, which was closed for the day to assist evacuated residents. About 30 families had sought shelter at the school by mid-morning, said Vicki Chapman, the executive director of the Red Cross chapter.

About 100 people were expected to take shelter Thursday night.

"We're prepared to do what we need to do as long as we need to do it," Chapman said, noting Red Cross volunteers would provide food, clothing, shelter and health and mental health services for affected residents.
mid week wed building rtn flow

cold on the east coast

Quoting 177. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
no no no no no

por qué
red sky at night sailors delight
hr 48 shows warming trend on the rtn flow



BTW, death toll in the island of Sardinia/Italy due to torrential rains and thunderstorms by mediterranean cyclone Cleopatra (see post #137) is now at 6, some more persons are missing. --- All this from local Italian Twitter and some Italian newspapers. Residents are complaining, that even main Italy (TV) won't take much notice of the dire situation in Sardinia.

(Edit: Umm, as I post it I see news with 7 or even 9 storm related fatalities on Sardinia; moreover hundreds of evacuees. We'll see what's going on there tomorrow in daylight, I guess, but new rainfall will set in then.)


Olbia/Northeastern Sardinia.



One of the latest tweets from Sardinia, showing the frustration of the local people:

Jan ejajo @ 1m
This morning TG [= an Italian news station] reported about 6 deaths in 10 U.S. states due to the typhoon [= tornadoes]. Tonight in #Sardinia we have 9 deaths from a flooding, which was widely expected ... [means: and it wasn't even mentioned so far by Italian TV stations]

Edit edit: Finally (it's near midnight in Central Europe) main media, owned by "dear" Berlusconi, apparently take notice:

Robi @ PhoneutriaFera 3m
finally a special edition on RAI-3 # # # Sardinia # allertameteoSAR ciclonecleopatra
hr 72 nice up warm along western gulf coast with milder temps pushing into the ne

Here's a graphic of rotation tracks via CIMSS and NSSL. Note the length of some of the supercells!

Quoting 186. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
red sky at night sailors delight

Oh no another blog cop. May I call you Paul?
Has there ever been a sts Hurricane ?
Quoting 191. tramp96:

Oh no another blog cop. May I call you Paul?
but iam the type that every once in awhile ya come across that ya shouldn't of messed with
I saw the advanced warnings and the torcon of 6. I would not have seen this coming otherwise. It did not look like tornadoes on the satellite or the radar.

The barometric low was driving an extreme gradient.

I feel really bad for the people who have to experience this disaster.

If the person responsible for this was ever found I'd be the first in line to throw the switch.
by hr 96 next system taking shape warming continues aheah of dev system

lets see how strong 18z gfs makes it

Quoting 192. allancalderini:
Has there ever been a sts Hurricane ?

It's not possible to have a subtropical hurricane. A hurricane is fully tropical in nature. However, there has been a subtropical storm with winds of 75 mph.

Link
Any guesses on how strong Melissa's gonna peak at?

I think she can get to hurricane status. 65 knot peak
Quoting 173. Neapolitan:
Cold turkey, anyone? Here comes the coldest anomalies--and obviously the coldest weather--some parts of the nation have seen since the May cold snap that affected much of the same area:

CPC

Meanwhile, Alaska continues it's relative toastiness...
Nea... Many years ago my ex was stationed at Eielson AFB AK... I had the pleasure of spending one year up there when he finally got promoted... Not a fun place to be in the winter...Pretty much dark all the time... I experienced 67 degrees below zero... You had to be there.
Quoting 193. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
but iam the type that every once in awhile ya come across that ya shouldn't of messed with

: )

Link
hr 132 sun not much in the way of the storm dept some rain
but the cold is strong

Melissa! Already stronger than 6 of this year's storms and already the 3rd most intense..

Since this storm isn't heading toward land anytime soon, maybe she'll make hurricane status before weakening in 36 hours. Of course if she stays a STS, she won't become a hurricane...but a STS at hurricane status would be very interesting to see!
pretty weak in the precip dept at hr 132

Quoting 201. JrWeathermanFL:
Melissa! Already stronger than 6 of this year's storms and already the 3rd most intense..

Since this storm isn't heading toward land anytime soon, maybe she'll make hurricane status before weakening in 36 hours. Of course if she stays a STS, she won't become a hurricane...but a STS at hurricane status would be very interesting to see!
Yea imagine it. a Subtropical Hurricane Melissa
hr 144 next significant threat may be coming out of the desert sw heading east ne ward on the heels of the cold air and building rtn flow

The GFS has this pattern nailed.
206. VR46L
Image from the New York Times

Quoting 196. TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's not possible to have a subtropical hurricane. A hurricane is fully tropical in nature. However, there has been a subtropical storm with winds of 75 mph.

Link
Thanks that was what I was intending to say if there has been system that are sts with winds of 75mph.Btw how are they refer just sts even with those winds?
.500 server error
Quoting 203. weatherboy1251:
Yea imagine it. a Subtropical Hurricane Melissa

It would just remain Subtropical Storm Melissa, even with hurricane force winds. Only when it would transition to a fully tropical cyclone would the hurricane label be put in ---> Hurricane Melissa.
Is anyone else having internet problems? Having trouble with many of my sites...
Quoting 210. PalmBeachWeather:
Is anyone else having internet problems? Having trouble with many of my sites...
Yep, youtube is down. o_O...BTW has a subtropical storm ever featured an eye-like feature before or because of that was it automatically upgraded to a hurricane. The 2000 version of Hurricane Karen started out subtropical and transitioned to a Hurricane.
Quoting 211. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Yep, youtube is down. o_O...BTW has a subtropical storm ever featured an eye-like feature before or because of that was it automatically upgraded to a hurricane. The 2000 version of Hurricane Karen started out subtropical and transitioned to a Hurricane.
Google Chrome has crashed also
I've been out of it most of the day.I had to leave work early because my headache got terribly bad and it's still hurting.Felt dizzy a little earlier.I didn't even want to see the light.I can tolerate a little light now so that's why I have my computer on energy saving mode.I see we have Melissa..it would be funny seeing how this is 20 13 and the season ends up with 13 named storms.
Quoting 212. PalmBeachWeather:
Google Chrome has crashed also
Just now the lights are going to go out. Get ready.
Quoting 211. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Yep, youtube is down. o_O...BTW has a subtropical storm ever featured an eye-like feature before or because of that was it automatically upgraded to a hurricane. The 2000 version of Hurricane Karen started out subtropical and transitioned to a Hurricane.
Had to come in the "old fashioned way" Kinda scary when most everything is down
Quoting 212. PalmBeachWeather:
Google Chrome has crashed also
The government is up to something!.lol.
Quoting 207. allancalderini:
Thanks that was what I was intending to say if there has been system that are sts with winds of 75mph.Btw how are they refer just sts even with those winds?

They're still "storms" regardless of their designation.
Quoting 216. washingtonian115:
The government is up to something!.lol.
Something BIG is happening though
Quoting 216. washingtonian115:
The government is up to something!.lol.
Huffington Post jumped right on top of it.

YouTube Is Down And Replaced By Weird Code For Some

Link
Previous blog carry-over...
Quoting 459. DanBlum:



Scott,
Thanks for the reply. I did read through the paper, which was quite interesting and, fortunately, easily understood by a lay-person.

I guess I'm surprised that velocity inference from radar loops does not seem to be more widely used, given that seems to have been verified as pretty accurate. So why are we concluding that, "we will probably never know the true strength of Haiyan?" Seems like we should be able to determine it within 10-15% - not perfect, but better than the "dead reckoning" of Dvorak.

I also don't understand why this cannot be used to help with strength estimates of landfalling TCs, and therefore warnings, in areas not covered by hurricane hunters. I realize there is some additional uncertainty in how the winds translate to surface without other information from dropsondes, but...still, this is analysis that can be done from the other side of the world at extremely low cost, and, if it proves better than Dvorak, which is a pretty low bar, or even comparable in accuracy so the two could be averaged (an even lower bar) it could surely help places like the Philippines.

Anyway...thanks again for the comment and link.

Dan

Perhaps there hasn't been anyone around that has wanted to put forth the time and effort to do that kind of analysis. That's the thing... talk is cheap, effort isn't. I dont mean that to be accusatory toward anyone, I actually think it is kind of human nature that most do to some degree.

If someone wanted to do it, they would need the radar data for the closest radar to the landfall. Then that person would need to find the tilt angle of the radar to estimate the elevation of the scan through the eye. Next would be to geo-reference the imgagery, probably in a GIS program like ArcGIS. Then the person would need to track each individual point and connect them with lines, subjectively curving the lines between points. Then divide distance by the time. Then look to see what adjustment factors would be necessary to "correct" the estimate to the surface speeds.

Anyone want to get your feet wet with some radar analysis?
Quoting 218. PalmBeachWeather:
Something BIG is happening though


im on west coast.. everything works... so maybe a ddos or the east coast of the us is being invaded
A rare view of a tornado's footprint is revealed in this aerial photograph of Washington, Ill., the day after an EF-4 tornado tore through town. (Zbigniew Bzdak/Chicago Tribune)

Quoting 221. nwobilderburg:


im on west coast.. everything works... so maybe a ddos or the east coast of the us is being invaded
Yep, just checked the latest satellite images a Category 5 Hurricane is approaching Washington, DC. :-P
Utube aint down in NOLA as I'm down on some Daft Punk Currently.

Sip'

With Sweet Melissa'


Quoting 223. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Yep, just checked the latest satellite images a Category 5 Hurricane is approaching Washington, DC. :-P
GT.... The ignorant may actually believe you... Be careful what you wish for...
226. VR46L
Quoting 218. PalmBeachWeather:
Something BIG is happening though


Probably some people are attacking Google and Microsofr because of this....

Google and Microsoft agree steps to block abuse images
Quoting 225. PalmBeachWeather:
GT.... The ignorant may actually believe you... Be careful what you wish for...


cmon... i dont think a category 5 could survive that far north anyways... especially not on November 18th
Quoting 206. VR46L:
Image from the New York Times

November 18, 2013 – ANTARCTICA – A volcano may be stirring more than a half-mile beneath a major ice sheet in Antarctica, raising the possibility of faster base melting that could ultimately affect climate. Oceans Could Absorb Much More CO2
http://dsc.discovery.com/news/2009/09/01/oceans-c arbon-absorb.html. Those things have been documented to cause miserable conditions for the whole earth when they are big enough, I couldn't imagine living next to one.
Quoting 225. PalmBeachWeather:
GT.... The ignorant may actually believe you... Be careful what you wish for...
That's why I ended with a :-P...ok {sarcasm flag: on}
230. VR46L
By people I am being polite .....Regarding #226
Quoting 227. nwobilderburg:


cmon... i dont think a category 5 could survive that far north anyways... especially not on November 18th
nwo....GT was joking... That's how we keep our sanity sometimes.
Quoting 223. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Yep, just checked the latest satellite images a Category 5 Hurricane is approaching Washington, DC. :-P
Why it gotta be my city? :p
233. VR46L
Quoting 228. Pallis:
November 18, 2013 – ANTARCTICA – A volcano may be stirring more than a half-mile beneath a major ice sheet in Antarctica, raising the possibility of faster base melting that could ultimately affect climate. Oceans Could Absorb Much More CO2
http://dsc.discovery.com/news/2009/09/01/oceans-c arbon-absorb.html. Those things have been documented to cause miserable conditions for the whole earth when they are big enough, I couldn't imagine living next to one.


Shame the Address didnt work for me :(
Quoting 219. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Huffington Post jumped right on top of it.

YouTube Is Down And Replaced By Weird Code For Some

Link


highly trained monkeys....
Quoting 232. washingtonian115:
Why it gotta be my city? :p
"We built this city...We built this city, We built this city on Rock and Roll"
Quoting 234. Hurricane614:


highly trained monkeys....


Quoting 235. PalmBeachWeather:
"We built this city...We built this city, We built this city on Rock and Roll"
Only thing that will be rolling if a cat 5 were to hit D.C would be the Capital dome.Hahah.
Folks, I hope I don't bore you with these very fresh weather news (post #137, #188) about cyclone Cleopatra (which has devastated - or let's say: damaged many regions in - Sardinia in the last hours, with 9 fatalities so far). I try to translate them for you from Italian language. In the moment impacts of this weather system are more severe for people than from Melissa far out in the Atlantic.
It's a quite large system, comparatively:





Translated from Italian:

Weather Alert: violent squall-line is about to strike the Tyrrhenian regions after hitting Sardinia
Posted about 17 minutes

The deep depression which is moving from Sardinia towards the Tyrrhenian Sea has given life to a squall line (line of thunderstorm) of considerable size. Earlier it has crossed the Sardinia from north to south in the last 24 hours causing violent storms in the provinces of Olbia , Oristano, Cagliari and Ogliastra.
The passage of thunderstorms over the island was devastating enough to cause casualties, missing, extensive flooding and untold damage. ...



Saved image. Source
Quoting 224. Patrap:
Utube aint down in NOLA as I'm down on some Daft Punk Currently.

Sip'

With Sweet Melissa'




The problems with YT, are mostly due to adobe flash player plugin....
Quoting 221. nwobilderburg:


im on west coast.. everything works... so maybe a ddos or the east coast of the us is being invaded



Uh, skies are clear here NORAD.
YouTube works fine, See
Quoting 228. Pallis:
November 18, 2013 – ANTARCTICA – A volcano may be stirring more than a half-mile beneath a major ice sheet in Antarctica, raising the possibility of faster base melting that could ultimately affect climate. Oceans Could Absorb Much More CO2
http://dsc.discovery.com/news/2009/09/01/oceans-c arbon-absorb.html. Those things have been documented to cause miserable conditions for the whole earth when they are big enough, I couldn't imagine living next to one.

Those damn republicans. Will they stop at nothing
Kinda slow, must be chow time in the East.
Quoting 235. PalmBeachWeather:
"We built this city...We built this city, We built this city on Rock and Roll"


We probably don't want to know what they built THIS city on!! :-)

(another DC metro resident)

By the way cold lovers in DC metro, you're about to get your wish for chill if the GFS verifies; this weekend and the first few days of Dec in separate shots.

Quoting 243. PedleyCA:
Kinda slow, must be chow time in the East.

we are eating
Well, this is interesting...

Good night from Germany, fellow bloggers. As it is 1 a.m. right now not many news will be available for some hours - regardless of language (Italian, French, Spanish --- sigh). If there are more severe news to report I'll let you know sometimes tomorrow. Have a nice evening! And best wishes to Sardinia and every region which is affected by dangerous weather right now.



Translated tweet from Italy:

Julius Daughter @ GFG84 12m
70 tornadoes in USA: 7 dead --- 1 water bomb in Sardinia #: 9 dead and dozens missing .... here is one of the benchmarks of the Italian Bankruptcy
Quoting 247. barbamz:
Good night from Germany, fellow bloggers. As it is 1 a.m. right now not many news will be available for some hours - regardless of language (Italian, French, Spanish --- sigh). If there are more severe news to report I'll let you know sometimes tomorrow. Have a nice evening! And best wishes to Sardinia and every region which is affected by dangerous weather right now.



Translated tweet from Italy:

Julius Daughter @ GFG84 12m
70 tornadoes in USA: 7 dead --- 1 water bomb in Sardinia #: 9 dead and dozens missing .... here is one of the benchmarks of the Italian Bankruptcy



Looks subtropical

Sat 24
384 HR out look at the cold!
Quoting barbamz:
Good night from Germany, fellow bloggers. As it is 1 a.m. right now not many news will be available for some hours - regardless of language (Italian, French, Spanish --- sigh). If there are more severe news to report I'll let you know sometimes tomorrow. Have a nice evening! And best wishes to Sardinia and every region which is affected by dangerous weather right now.



Translated tweet from Italy:

Julius Daughter @ GFG84 12m
70 tornadoes in USA: 7 dead --- 1 water bomb in Sardinia #: 9 dead and dozens missing .... here is one of the benchmarks of the Italian Bankruptcy


What's a ''water bomb'' ???

A deluge ?
Quoting tramp96:

Those damn republicans. Will they stop at nothing


LOLOL
Quoting 249. SFLWeatherman:
384 HR out look at the cold!

That far out is a forecasting eon, but it would be quite a McFarland Event if it were to verify.

Quoting 252. 1900hurricane:

That far out is a forecasting eon, but it would be quite a McFarland Event if it were to verify.



I am from out of the U.S so I ask what is the McFarland event that you mention?
Quoting 250. pottery:


What's a ''water bomb'' ???

A deluge ?


Lol. Usually what bad kids (in Europe) would throw onto innocent people ... But I'm really in bed now, bye Pottery.

Quoting barbamz:


Lol. Usually what bad kids (in Europe) would throw onto innocent people ...


LOL, OK, thanks.

Have a Great evening everyone, and stay safe.
Quoting 236. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Nice family photo there...


Incredible ground scar/spiral pattern from the Washington tornado. Such scarring is indicative of a very strong tornado. Photo from the Chicago Tribune.
Quoting 253. Tropicsweatherpr:


I am from out of the U.S so I ask what is the McFarland event that you mention?

Basically, it is a pattern that allows very cold polar air to dive south down the plains just to the east of the spine of the Rockies. Extreme cold often occurs very far south during such an event.

Useful Relationships Between 500 mb Features and Major Freeze Events in the Lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas
Quoting 257. AussieStorm:


Incredible ground scar/spiral pattern from the Washington tornado. Such scarring is indicative of a very strong tornado. Photo from the Chicago Tribune.


I don't see how diving in a ditch would have helped if that came over you.
Down to 985 millibars.

AL, 14, 2013111900, , BEST, 0, 299N, 546W, 50, 985, SS, 50, NEQ, 0, 90, 90, 90, 1007, 400, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MELISSA, M,
Quoting Dakster:


I don't see how diving in a ditch would have helped if that came over you.


only if that ditch led to a mine.


Stephanie_Sullivan30@Weathermob

My town got hit HARD today. Luckily, my family is safe...others weren't so lucky. #kokomoindiana #indiana #kokomo #kokomotornado #chaos
We got this here in Sydney yesterday.

Quoting 262. AussieStorm:


only if that ditch led to a mine.


That *might* work, as long as the mine didn't collapse.

--

Something looks wrong with the photo of the house you posted. Is it supposed to be in the middle of the street?
Quoting 251. pottery:


LOLOL



It's all George Bush's fault.

so where did Doc Roods blog go?
Quoting Dakster:


That *might* work, as long as the mine didn't collapse.

--

Something looks wrong with the photo of the house you posted. Is it supposed to be in the middle of the street?


Yeah, the roof is now in the middle of the street. Not a normal place for a roof to be.
Aussie - Interesting mini-tornado. No one seemed to panic all that much.

Watching the person drive on the wrong side of the road was interesting. (I know it is the correct side of the road for you) Not so sure I could easily adapt to that.

I noticed that fuel prices are not posted? What is a gallon or liter of petrol going for in the land down under?
Quoting Dakster:
Aussie - Interesting mini-tornado. No one seemed to panic all that much.

Watching the person drive on the wrong side of the road was interesting. (I know it is the correct side of the road for you) Not so sure I could easily adapt to that.

I noticed that fuel prices are not posted? What is a gallon or litre of petrol going for in the land down under?


The fuel price is per litre. I am going to the Philippines in just under 6 weeks, they drive and the same side as you guys, It will be something I'll have to get used to.

Yeah, most people are not sure what a tornado is as they are rare here, waterspouts aren't though.
You know hurricane season is pitiful when the strongest storm isn't even tropical.

(potentially)
Quoting 261. Civicane49:
Down to 985 millibars.

AL, 14, 2013111900, , BEST, 0, 299N, 546W, 50, 985, SS, 50, NEQ, 0, 90, 90, 90, 1007, 400, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MELISSA, M,
Melissa might become the strongest of the season at this rate.
Quoting 271. AussieStorm:


The fuel price is per litre. I am going to the Philippines in just under 6 weeks, they drive and the same side as you guys, It will be something I'll have to get used to.


The danergous part is having to switch yielding to traffic when you turn. Your left turns are like our right turns. No to mention I know I would get in on the wrong side of the car a few times...
275. SLU
Quoting 213. washingtonian115:
I've been out of it most of the day.I had to leave work early because my headache got terribly bad and it's still hurting.Felt dizzy a little earlier.I didn't even want to see the light.I can tolerate a little light now so that's why I have my computer on energy saving mode.I see we have Melissa..it would be funny seeing how this is 20 13 and the season ends up with 13 named storms.


Get well soon Wash.
Amazing video of the power of Haiyan's storm surge.




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R2bFduW7Z Lo
So... bitcoins are now 800 dollars each.... wow
Quoting 261. Civicane49:
Down to 985 millibars.

AL, 14, 2013111900, , BEST, 0, 299N, 546W, 50, 985, SS, 50, NEQ, 0, 90, 90, 90, 1007, 400, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MELISSA, M,
I hope it rapidly intensifies and at least end this season with a major hurricane that is only a threat to the shipping lanes on the North Atlantic. After that the season could be history for all I care because there has been enough death and destruction from extreme weather globally this year.
Quoting 275. SLU:


Get well soon Wash.
Thanks.I had to take some strong pain relief medicine.
I hear we got Melissa now.
Quoting 266. SFLWeatherman:
Thanks. I am so friggen tired,I can't believe I did not halfway expect this because it was pretty warm today. Been working full days for over a month now. You probably just saved me 180$
Quoting 280. Andrebrooks:
I hear we got Melissa now.
Nah we had Melissa since last year. ;)
Scott Sims

Published on Nov 18, 2013

First let me say, I was NOT really chasing this storm, I was just on the way home from chasing other storms. My radar updates had not yet shown the possible tornado on my screen, so I didn't even know it was coming.

I had been chasing earlier West of Champaign, near Lincoln, and had decided to head East to I-57 and south towards home. The line of warned cells was dragging back to the southwest and I was still out front of it. So I knew that I may be able to see one more cell on the way home, or would have to stop to get run over by a wind/hail storm. Nearing Tuscola, I saw a huge storm core with a wall of rain and started to get hit by small hail. I decided to pull under an overpass to ride out the hail storm and not be an almost invisible car trudging along the interstate waiting to be hit by a speeding driver. So, I pulled into the center median and as close to the concrete pylon under the center of the bridge. This is looking South and happened at 12:48PM.

Quoting 279. washingtonian115:
Thanks.I had to take some strong pain relief medicine.
Last time I had a headache that was not associated with alcohol or flu like symptoms, it actually turned out to be something in my stomach. I stopped eating at mcdonalds well over 10 years now and I do not miss it one bit. Just in case though,drink some water(not tap water!), and lie down.
Quoting 279. washingtonian115:
Thanks.I had to take some strong pain relief medicine.


Feel better and I can't believe you are blogging with a headache...
Quoting 273. allancalderini:
Melissa might become the strongest of the season at this rate.


That's not exactly notable.
Quoting 287. KoritheMan:


That's not exactly notable.


Sad, but could be reality.


She will be transitioning into a tropical storm tomorrow and possible a Hurricane by tomorrow night.
Quoting 283. hydrus:
I'm waiting for that cold air Hydrus.Due to the weather pattern reminding me of spring I wasn't surprised about yesterdays tornado outbreak.Now I'm ready for winter.Come Jack frost! (Now that I see it let's think positive people about that last sentence :))
Illinois Tornado Survivor Kris Lancaster

Shocking footage

Quoting 268. indianrivguy:
so where did Doc Roods blog go?


I see the prior entry but I'm not spending my time in the past.
Quoting 285. Pallis:
Last time I had a headache that was not associated with alcohol or flu like symptoms, it actually turned out to be something in my stomach. I stopped eating at mcdonalds well over 10 years now and I do not miss it one bit. Just in case though,drink some water(not tap water!), and lie down.
I go to the store and by baby water.I've had cashiers ask me many times "So when is the baby due".
Quoting 286. Dakster:


Feel better and I can't believe you are blogging with a headache...
I took some strong relief medicine but it should start to wear off so you will not see me on tonight.
Quoting Dakster:


Feel better and I can't believe you are blogging with a headache...


I do it all the time. I write better stuff then. I get headaches from a trigger point in my neck, I can feel when it goes off as it's like a vibrating sensation, that's the muscles and tendons beginning to tighter. That's when I take my anti-inflammatory medication.
Quoting 272. wxgeek723:
You know hurricane season is pitiful when the strongest storm isn't even tropical.

(potentially)

Was just thinking the exact same thing.

I like these late-season storms though. They're really photogenic eventually, and they also give me something to track.
Quoting 280. Andrebrooks:
I hear we got Melissa now.



late
Quoting 287. KoritheMan:


That's not exactly notable.
Lol depends on your the personal view of everyone because I find it amusing that a sts might become the strongest of the season.What is the lowest pressure a sts has reach?
I think Melissa will be a hurricane by tomorrow afternoon.
Quoting 213. washingtonian115:
I've been out of it most of the day.I had to leave work early because my headache got terribly bad and it's still hurting.Felt dizzy a little earlier.I didn't even want to see the light.I can tolerate a little light now so that's why I have my computer on energy saving mode.I see we have Melissa..it would be funny seeing how this is 20 13 and the season ends up with 13 named storms.


Sorry to hear you're under the weather...get well soon!
Quoting 268. indianrivguy:
so where did Doc Roods blog go?

I wonder if they thought the pro GW crowd was losing
the battle.
Quoting 293. washingtonian115:
I go to the store and by baby water.I've had cashiers ask me many times "So when is the baby due". I took some strong relief medicine but it should start to wear off so you will not see me on tonight.
Do you are affect by migraines constantly Washi? Because my mom have migraines constantly.
Quoting 296. Tazmanian:



late


Gosh I hope my wife isn't late. I am too old for another kid.

I suffer from migraines too, but sometimes she leaves me alone.
Quoting 62. sar2401:

I don't know when this change occurred but, like I wrote, it really doesn't make sense to me. Just because a subtropical storm gets a name, I can't see why it should be included in ACE scores. This storm will die when a larger and much more powerful (though unnamed) storm in the North Atlantic picks it up and it's carried eastward. If the NHC decides Melissa is tropical, then it makes sense to count it. This is the kind of thing that leads some to believe the NHC pads their ACE score numbers.


I think the change was made in 2003 or 2004.
Quoting 259. Dakster:


I don't see how diving in a ditch would have helped if that came over you.
Diving in a root cellar maybe. Out there it is so flat, I doubt that it would be water free all year. Even if you hooked up a snorkel system it would probably end up with a nest of black widows in it. The National Data Buoy Center is experiencing network issues, so that means we have no idea if a TSUNAMI EVENT IS HAPPENING, so I want everyone who lives 300 ft or lower to sleep with one arm firmly wrapped around a life preserver tonight, and then take it to work with you tomorrow. Dak, you are too low and on the Atlantic side, just sleep in your neighbors boat, and tie two life preservers to your wrists. If your neighbor asks what you are doing, just tell him that you noticed some kids snooping around his boat and want to scare them with a flare gun. Then ask him where the flare gun is.
Quoting 304. Pallis:
Diving in a root cellar maybe. out there it is so flat, I doubt that it would be water free all year. Even if you hooked up a snorkel system it would probably end up with a nest of black widows in it. The National Data Buoy Center is experiencing network issues, so that means we have no idea if a TSUNAMI EVENT IS HAPPENING, so I want everyone who lives 300 ft or lower to sleep with one arm firmly wrapped around a life preserver tonight, and then take it to work with you tomorrow. Dak, you are too low and on the Atlantic side, just sleep in your neighbors boat, and tie two life preservers to your wrists. If your neighbor asks what you are doing, just tell him that you noticed some kids snooping around his boat and want to scare them with a flare gun. Then ask him where the flare gun is.


Yeah, there is no where for me to run to, that is for sure. Since I can just about see the ocean from my house, it wouldn't be a good thing to get a Tsunami.

I guess if the boat rocks I know there is trouble. (Although if its a rocking on dry land, don't come a knocking)
Doom.

Don't run into the fruit cellar! NOOOOOO!!!!

*puts on some tea and begins to blog about Melissa*
In this installment of Miss the Cyclone...

Not bad, could see 30s as far south as Tampa.
Quoting 306. BaltimoreBrian:
Doom.


The center is around me :p

Quoting 310. CybrTeddy:
Not bad, could see 30s as far south as Tampa.


Chilly
Quoting 305. Dakster:


Yeah, there is no where for me to run to, that is for sure. Since I can just about see the ocean from my house, it wouldn't be a good thing to get a Tsunami.

I guess if the boat rocks I know there is trouble. (Although if its a rocking on dry land, don't come a knocking)
Right on, but I really do not like when the buoys are not available for us to monitor. Most things in Florida would just get smashed, but there is a chance of survival if you float. We paid for that stuff with our tax dollars, and I wonder why it is not working right now. Going to check out what the sun is up to if that is up and running.
Quoting 309. TropicalAnalystwx13:
In this installment of Miss the Cyclone...


Oooh, I love this series!... :P
14L/STS/M/CX
The Washington, Illinois tornado has been given a more specific (but still preliminary) rating of EF-4 with maximum sustained winds of 190 mph. It was on the ground for 46.2 miles and reached a half mile wide.

EDIT to add italicized.
Shear decreasing significantly over Melissa:

Quoting 315. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Washington, Illinois tornado has been given a final rating of EF-4 with maximum sustained winds of 190 mph. It was on the ground for 46.2 miles and reached a half mile wide.


The injuries went way up from last night. 75 to now 122.
Sorry for this off topic post -
Quoting 294. AussieStorm:


I do it all the time. I write better stuff then. I get headaches from a trigger point in my neck, I can feel when it goes off as it's like a vibrating sensation, that's the muscles and tendons beginning to tighter. That's when I take my anti-inflammatory medication.


Have you tried occiptal release for those headaches? It's a miracle. It works well for my migraines too. If I do it early enough I can sometimes avoid having to take the harsher drugs.
Quoting 306. BaltimoreBrian:
Doom.

The "eye" is right over my house!.Day after tomorrow all over again!.lol.
Quoting 307. BaltimoreBrian:
Don't run into the fruit cellar! NOOOOOO!!!!

Quoting 307. BaltimoreBrian:
Don't run into the fruit cellar! NOOOOOO!!!!

Yes, that would be a great T.V. ad to show school kids about the dangers of hiding in the root cellar. Unfortunately, the latest problem is that the town of Washington that got hit by the tornado is real close to the latest tremor readings. It seems like the New Madrid Fault line is acting up recently. You might remember that instigator from such hijinks as the Mississippi River running backwards and triggering shakes as far away as N. Florida in 1811/12. They really are not safe out there. Lets hope it is just a burp for their sake.
Quoting 315. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Washington, Illinois tornado has been given a final rating of EF-4 with maximum sustained winds of 190 mph. It was on the ground for 46.2 miles and reached a half mile wide.

Saw this on Twitter earlier. My guess is that they don't find anything to upgrade and this ranking ends up being final final, but you never know...

Quoting 318. entrelac:
Sorry for this off topic post -


Have you tried occiptal release for those headaches? It's a miracle. It works well for my migraines too. If I do it early enough I can sometimes avoid having to take the harsher drugs.
That is certainly not off topic. You can not concentrate on the weather if you have a headache. It is amazing what things in your body can give you a headache though. I used to get them rarely in my mid 20s from thinking about the same thing, like I couldn't defeat it in my mind, and then I would wake up and defeat whatever the challenge was, and it went away, but that was obviously self induced.
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
1100 PM AST MON NOV 18 2013

...MELISSA CONTINUES AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM OVER THE OPEN CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 54.7W
ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
1100 PM AST MON NOV 18 2013

DEEP CONVECTION IN MELISSA REMAINS QUITE ASYMMETRIC WITH A NARROW
BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER AT A RADIUS OF ABOUT 60-90 NM ALONG
WITH A LARGER BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE A FEW HUNDRED MILES
FROM THE CENTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MELISSA REMAINS
INTERTWINED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...THUS A SUBTROPICAL STORM
STATUS STILL APPEARS WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. A TIMELY 0030 UTC
PARTIAL ASCAT-A PASS PROVIDED PEAK WINDS OF ABOUT 45 KT. THIS
ALONG WITH THE TAFB HEBERT-POTEAT SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATION OF
3.0...45-50 KT...HELPED TO DETERMINE THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50
KT.

MELISSA IS MOVING AT 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD VEER
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA CURRENT HELPS KICK OUT MELISSA
INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HR...BUT THEN DIVERGES DEPENDING IN PART ON
HOW MUCH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCURS. THE GFS AND DEPENDENT
MESOSCALE HURRICANE MODELS INDICATE AN EARLIER TRANSITION...WHICH
THEN WRAPS MELISSA NORTHWARD QUICKER. THE ECMWF AND NAVGEM KEEP
MELISSA FARTHER EAST IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE APPROACHING
EXTRATROPICAL LOW AND DISSIPATE IT BEFORE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS AND IS CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH THREE DAYS...BUT THEN FASTER AND
FARTHER EAST THEREAFTER. THE EXTRATROPICAL TRACK IS BASED IN LARGE
PART UPON INPUT FROM THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

MELISSA HAS A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. THE SHEAR IS PROJECTED TO LESSEN FOR ABOUT A DAY
WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER LUKEWARM WATERS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
ENOUGH CONVECTION TO FORM OVER THE CENTER AND A DEEP WARM CORE TO
DEVELOP FOR TROPICAL TRANSITION TO OCCUR...AS ALSO INDICATED BY THE
FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS. IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS...THE
RAPIDLY DROPPING SSTS THAT MELISSA WILL ENCOUNTER COUPLED WITH MUCH
STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE THE DEEP CONVECTION TO CEASE.
THUS A TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL LOW IS INDICATED AT 48
HOURS...EVEN THOUGH A FULL EXTRATROPICAL STAGE IS PREDICTED TO
OCCUR AROUND THREE DAYS. BY DAY FIVE...MELISSA IS ANTICIPATED TO
BECOME ABSORBED BY THE LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS ALSO ALLOWED FOR A MORE CONFIDENT
ASSESSMENT OF THE 34 AND 50 KT WIND RADII.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 30.3N 54.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 31.3N 54.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 33.6N 52.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 36.4N 48.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 39.8N 43.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 22/0000Z 46.0N 33.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 23/0000Z 53.5N 33.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
Quoting 321. 1900hurricane:

Saw this on Twitter earlier. My guess is that they don't find anything to upgrade and this ranking ends up being final final, but you never know...


In the past, they used to assemble teams to assess damage in the EF4/5 range to have better confidence in the higher-end ratings. I think some offices still do, but I dont think it's required like it used to be. I'm not 100% on that. I would lean toward having extra sets of eyes for the higher end tornadoes, as it requires a bit more expertise to determine the quality of construction for "EF-5 candidates."
I read somewhere (don't remember if it was this blog or not) that someone was skeptical about yesterday's tornadoes lofting debris and moving them many miles downwind (checks and such). I think this should put that skepticism to rest.



Quoting 315. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Washington, Illinois tornado has been given a final rating of EF-4 with maximum sustained winds of 190 mph. It was on the ground for 46.2 miles and reached a half mile wide.


I should have caught this earlier. That is another Preliminary NWS Damage Survey..

Quoting 327. Skyepony:


I should have caught this earlier. That is another Preliminary NWS Damage Survey..


Interesting. I assume the survey team tomorrow will be final then? Three surveys for one tornado seems weird.
Quoting 317. Skyepony:


The injuries went way up from last night. 75 to now 122.


there was some confusion yesterday evening on the number of people transported to the local hospitals by first aid responders from some of the out lying communities that rushed to help Washington residents ..

from my vantage point yesterday there was almost a continuous line of ambulances and emergency respnders coming from the south into Washington !!
Quoting 328. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Interesting. I assume the survey team tomorrow will be final then? Three surveys for one tornado seems weird.

Not so weird if it's a cat 5 & time of day of the first.. The first one was near dark, first glimpse/guess. They usually look extra hard at those cat 5s before declaring them.
Quoting 330. Skyepony:

Not so weird if it's a cat 5 & time of day of the first.. The first one was near dark, first glimpse/guess. They usually look extra hard at those cat 5s before declaring them.


From the pictures I have seen on the local TV channels it wouldn't surprise me if it was rated F5 .. there is a large area where there are no standing walls of any kind where one houses ruble is on someone else's property ..
Evening everybody. What a doozy of a day! Just about the best thing about it was the wx, and I didn't even get to look in on STS Melissa until just now...

I would also like to say that reading Chris Landsea's discussions is almost like reading poetry.... lol...
wx haiku...
Mmmhmm! Snow coming for Wisconsin and portions of the Great Lakes.

Also for any photographers in the blog, the worldview page for this week is, in a word, spectacular.
EDIT:
Disreguard post info until re-verified..
Quoting 331. whitewabit:


From the pictures I have seen on the local TV channels it wouldn't surprise me if it was rated F5 .. there is a large area where there are no standing walls of any kind where one houses ruble is on someone else's property ..

Saw one on YouTube, I have to agree. Wouldn't be surprised by EF5.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
DEPRESSION BOB06-2013
5:30 AM IST November 19 2013
=====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Latest satellite imagery and observations indicate that a depression has formed over west central Bay of Bengal and lays center near 14.5N 86.5E, about 700 km east northeast of Chennai, 600 km east southeast of Machilipatnam, and 500 km southeast of Vishakhapatinam.

The system would intensify into a deep depression and move west northwestwards towards Andhra Pradesh Coast during next 72 hours.
.
This is what happened to the internet, maybe.

All three sunspot groups are facing Earth, more or less, so any eruptions today would likely be geoeffective. NOAA forecasters estimate a 60% chance of M-class flares and a 15% chance of X-flares on Nov. 18th
Quoting 326. 1900hurricane:
I read somewhere (don't remember if it was this blog or not) that someone was skeptical about yesterday's tornadoes lofting debris and moving them many miles downwind (checks and such). I think this should put that skepticism to rest.





I'm surprised, that wouldn't be something I would be skeptical of. If there's one weird thing I've learned about tornadoes, never underestimate their ability to do things which cause one to scratch one's head...
Quoting 315. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Washington, Illinois tornado has been given a more specific (but still preliminary) rating of EF-4 with maximum sustained winds of 190 mph. It was on the ground for 46.2 miles and reached a half mile wide.

EDIT to add italicized.


That's crazy for late November, I'm not surprised though given everything that came together, the situation was just as impressive as any epic severe weather setup in the southern plains during the Spring. I always tell people to always look at the math over what time of year it is, weather patterns don't care about climatology. When everything is necessary for severe weather, people better be prepared for it.
Quoting 1900hurricane:
I read somewhere (don't remember if it was this blog or not) that someone was skeptical about yesterday's tornadoes lofting debris and moving them many miles downwind (checks and such). I think this should put that skepticism to rest.




According to my handy-dandy Pilot's Atlas, it's about 89 air miles from Washington to Romeoville. I don't know why anyone, given the light debris, the high winds and hefty updrafts, would be surprised to find things from an EF-4/5 at that distance. There are well documented reports of paper debris from the Tuscaloosa area tornadoes of 2011 being found almost 300 air miles away.

I was flying one of those rubber band powered model airplanes when I was a kid and watched it get caught in an updraft on an otherwise sunny day. I had my name and phone number written on the wing because people a few blocks away would find them when they got away from me and they cost about $3, which was a lot of money for a 10 year old in 1956. I never expected to see that one again, but I got a call from a farmer 45 miles away after about a week, who found it while he was out plowing his field. There was some talk at the time about it being a record for a balsa wood and paper airplane flight record, although I'm sure that wasn't true. I even made my small town newspaper.

Things can travel a long way in the air given the right conditions.



There is plenty of scientific research that deserves all the funding it can get, and then some I think needs far more in many cases.

However, some scientific research really makes me scratch my head as to why it gets any support, or why it exists in the first place, this I think is one such example, lol.
Quoting 291. BaltimoreBrian:
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.

Why promiscuous female mice have sexier sons



Quoting Pallis:
This is what happened to the internet, maybe.

All three sunspot groups are facing Earth, more or less, so any eruptions today would likely be geoeffective. NOAA forecasters estimate a 60% chance of M-class flares and a 15% chance of X-flares on Nov. 18th

I certainly hope so. Amateur radio conditions on HF (3 Mhz-54 Mhz) have been terrible lately. We've all been waiting for the supposed sunspot peak that was supposed to hit this year and it hasn't happened yet. Sunspot activity has been lower than average for almost 9 years now. I have no idea if this anything to do with the weather, but it's sure frustrating sitting in my radio shack and listening to nothing but static.
Quoting Jedkins01:



There is plenty of scientific research that deserves all the funding it can get, and then some I think needs far more in many cases.

However, some scientific research really makes me scratch my head as to why it gets any support, or why it exists in the first place, this I think is one such example, lol.

I kind of thought all mice were promiscuous. I'm just wondering how they judged which females were "monogamous". I hope my taxes didn't pay for this study.
We could make you monogamous just like they made they mice monogamous, but it would require a bigger cage.
Quoting whitewabit:


there was some confusion yesterday evening on the number of people transported to the local hospitals by first aid responders from some of the out lying communities that rushed to help Washington residents ..

from my vantage point yesterday there was almost a continuous line of ambulances and emergency respnders coming from the south into Washington !!

Injuries are now being reported from all those first responders who provided things like a band-aid for a small cut. Many of those first responders are volunteer rescue squads and ambulance companies, and field treatment almost never gets counted as "injured" unless a patient is transported to a hospital. Since they are volunteers, most of the funding comes from the community, so they do want whatever work they did in a large scale disaster to be counted, since it helps fund raising.
Quoting bappit:
We could make you monogamous just like they made they mice monogamous, but it would require a bigger cage.

And no internet access....:-)
Wunderground makes you promiscuous?
- as they say on Monty Python - and now for something completely different .... (mice free content - I assure you)


some weather history from the Key West NWS


.CLIMATE...NOVEMBER 18TH...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER
HISTORY...IN 1923...THE LOW TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST FELL TO 56
DEGREES...SETTING THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
How bout them Panthers..
Quoting 352. ncstorm:
How bout them Panthers..


I've not dog in this fight. Difficult call at the end. Glad they were real refs and not the substitutes used a while back. I generally agree with the final call but the dude was messed with ... nite
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
I hope it rapidly intensifies and at least end this season with a major hurricane that is only a threat to the shipping lanes on the North Atlantic. After that the season could be history for all I care because there has been enough death and destruction from extreme weather globally this year.

Nah. It's got about a 24 hour window to turn tropical and maybe get to 70 mph. After that, the cold water and a low in the North Atlantic will swallow it whole. Melissa is a good end to the season though. Off it will go into the North Atlantic to die, not injuring anyone and at least getting our ACE score over 30. I wonder what the ACE score would be for the tornadoes in Moore and Washington? I don't know if there's any direct way to translate it, but I imagine that, while the tornado is on the ground, there's nothing else in nature that can match that energy output, except maybe lightning.
Quoting 335. BahaHurican:
Also for any photographers in the blog, the worldview page for this week is, in a word, spectacular.

beautiful
Quoting bappit:
Wunderground makes you promiscuous?

Well, not WU, but I understand there are sites that can assist in making you promiscuous. I don't really know for sure, but I keep getting e-mails from outfits that claim that's the case. :-)
This is from my Aunt who lives just north of Kokomo, IN in a town called Walton:

We are fine. No damage on the west side of Kokomo where the gym is. The damage is mainly up US 31. Several businesses and homes were hit.
In Walton, we have no power. 8 telephone poles were snapped in 2. The house is cold around 50 degrees. I am spending my day at the gym.


Whew. Close one.
Quoting 354. sar2401:

Nah. It's got about a 24 hour window to turn tropical and maybe get to 70 mph. After that, the cold water and a low in the North Atlantic will swallow it whole. Melissa is a good end to the season though. Off it will go into the North Atlantic to die, not injuring anyone and at least getting our ACE score over 30. I wonder what the ACE score would be for the tornadoes in Moore and Washington? I don't know if there's any direct way to translate it, but I imagine that, while the tornado is on the ground, there's nothing else in nature that can match that energy output, except maybe lightning.


Earthquakes
Quoting 346. sar2401:

I kind of thought all mice were promiscuous. I'm just wondering how they judged which females were "monogamous". I hope my taxes didn't pay for this study.


lol, and since when do mice know or care, I didn't know a mouse was capable of being "promiscuous". Do they have a moral compass now too? lol.

The scary part is, I wouldn't be surprised if our taxes do pay for that study. It seems the government money often pays for the most wasteful useless crap, but yet it takes exceeding effort to gather additional funding for important tasks and/or scientific research.

Believe it or not, I've seen a list of many expensive studies that are even more useless and silly than this one and HAVE been paid through taxes. We are talking in the cost of millions, millions that could be used for medical research, or the NWS for example.

I wish I could find the list again, but it was so bad I laughed hard but also felt like crying at the same time knowing it wasn't information from the Onion...
Quoting 359. Jedkins01:


I wish I could find the list again, but it was so bad I laughed hard but also felt like crying at the same time knowing it wasn't information from the Onion...


Don't cry over cut onions, not fun at all.


system after 90B/BOB06-2013
Quoting 289. washingtonian115:
I'm waiting for that cold air Hydrus.Due to the weather pattern reminding me of spring I wasn't surprised about yesterdays tornado outbreak.Now I'm ready for winter.Come Jack frost! (Now that I see it let's think positive people about that last sentence :))


I am ready for some chill down here too. The weather lately has been kind of bland and muggy.
Two Tornadoes Confirmed in Tennessee:
Weak and Short Lived
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION BOB06-2013
8:30 AM IST November 19 2013
=====================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, The depression over west central Bay of Bengal moved westward and now lays center near 14.5N 86.0E, about 650 km east northeast of Chennai, 550 km east southeast of Machilipatnam, and 450 km southeast of Vishakhapatnam.

The system would intensify into a deep depression and move west-northwestwards towards Andhra Pradesh Coast during next 72 hours.
AL, 14, 2013111906, , BEST, 0, 307N, 547W, 50, 985, SS, 50, NEQ, 120, 120, 50, 90, 1008, 400, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MELISSA, M,
Quoting nwobilderburg:


Earthquakes

Getting ready to hit the hay but stopped back to see if anyone else was up. You are quite correct. If were talking about the just the release of raw energy in a short period time, nothing beats an earthquake. Having lived through a few of them in my 35 years in California, I should have thought of that. I don't think there's anything scarier than being in a large quake either, wondering when it's going to stop.
Quoting 343. sar2401:

According to my handy-dandy Pilot's Atlas, it's about 89 air miles from Washington to Romeoville. I don't know why anyone, given the light debris, the high winds and hefty updrafts, would be surprised to find things from an EF-4/5 at that distance. There are well documented reports of paper debris from the Tuscaloosa area tornadoes of 2011 being found almost 300 air miles away.

I was flying one of those rubber band powered model airplanes when I was a kid and watched it get caught in an updraft on an otherwise sunny day. I had my name and phone number written on the wing because people a few blocks away would find them when they got away from me and they cost about $3, which was a lot of money for a 10 year old in 1956. I never expected to see that one again, but I got a call from a farmer 45 miles away after about a week, who found it while he was out plowing his field. There was some talk at the time about it being a record for a balsa wood and paper airplane flight record, although I'm sure that wasn't true. I even made my small town newspaper.

Things can travel a long way in the air given the right conditions.


Neat story...

And politicians travel a long, long way on hot air... So it doesn't really surprise me.
Quoting 366. sar2401:

Getting ready to hit the hay but stopped back to see if anyone else was up. You are quite correct. If were talking about the just the release of raw energy in a short period time, nothing beats an earthquake. Having lived through a few of them in my 35 years in California, I should have thought of that. I don't think there's anything scarier than being in a large quake either, wondering when it's going to stop.


Yeah I was in San Diego when a 7.2 hit about 150 miles away a few years ago... and it still felt really powerful. Crazy stuff
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
500 AM AST TUE NOV 19 2013

...MELISSA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AND TURNS NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 54.6W
ABOUT 605 MI...970 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
Come on Melissa... Give us one more low end 'cane for the 2013 record books...

Just DON'T hit land, especially CONUS.
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
500 AM AST TUE NOV 19 2013

MELISSA APPEARS TO HAVE STRENGTHENED A LITTLE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH
THE CYCLONE IS NOT PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION...A FEW
BANDS HAVE BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER
DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS NUDGED UPWARD
TO 55 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. THE CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE CIRCULAR AND THE CLOUD PATTERN APPEARS TO BE
CONTRACTING WHILE IT SEPARATES FROM THE NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A
DECREASE IN SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS COULD ALLOW
MELISSA TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE AND TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. ANY STRENGTHENING SHOULD COME TO AN END IN 24 TO 36 HOURS
WHEN THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WATER
AND INTO A DRIER AIRMASS. MELISSA IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME
POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS WHEN IT IS FORECAST TO BE OVER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 18 C.

THE SUBTROPICAL STORM HAS TURNED TO THE NORTH...WITH THE LATEST
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BEING 360/8 KT. A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE
MOVING CLOSER TO MELISSA...AND WILL HELP ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE
NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BEYOND A COUPLE OF
DAYS...THERE IS A NOTABLE DISAGREEMENT IN HOW THE POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT OF MELISSA INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CYCLONE ROTATING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE TROUGH OR LOW...WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW THE CYCLONE
MOVING MORE EASTWARD IN THE WESTERLIES. THE NHC FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES CLOSE
TO THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH IS IN BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIOS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 31.2N 54.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 32.6N 53.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 35.3N 50.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 38.4N 45.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 41.3N 39.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 22/0600Z 46.5N 30.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 23/0600Z 52.0N 27.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Good morning everybody.


Raw-Video with aerial views.

Very bad news emerge from Sardinia (Italy) in the Mediterranean Sea (I've posted last night about the developing situation over there):

Sardinia hit by deadly cyclone and flooding
BBC News, 19 November 2013 Last updated at 09:11 GMT

At least 16 people have been killed in flooding prompted by a cyclone and heavy rain that swept through the Italian island of Sardinia.

A number of people are reported missing after rivers burst their banks, sweeping cars away and causing bridges to collapse.

The worst-hit area appears to be in and around the north-eastern city of Olbia.

Prime Minister Enrico Letta has spoken of a "national tragedy" and a state of emergency is expected to be declared.

"We're at maximum alert," Giorgio Cicalo, an official from Sardinia's civil protection authority, told Italy's Rai TV.

"We haven't seen a situation as extreme as this, perhaps for decades. Especially because it's been across the whole island."

Hundreds of people across the Mediterranean island have been moved from their homes because of the flooding caused by Cyclone Cleopatra.

Sardinian Governor Ugo Cappellacci told Italian TV that the situation on the island was "dramatic".

Olbia Mayor Gianni Giovanelli was quoted by Sky TG24 as saying that the city had been hit by an "apocalyptic"' storm.

Cyclones are extremely rare in the Mediterranean. ...


Whole article see link above.

And "Cleopatra" keeps on dumping rain onto Sardinia:




Cleopatra (saved image). Source.
Another footage from Sardinia by EuroNews. The term "mini-tornado" is strange though.




(Saved image)


(Saved image). Source.

Death toll still is rising:
Sardinia storms: At least 17 dead
Olbia and Torpe' most affected areas, thousands evacuated
AnsaMed, 19 November, 11:07

Rainfall measurements in Sardinia (P = accumulated rainfall during the last day in mm).

Google-Earth map.

Other areas in Italy are hit too with torrential and still ongoing rains. I'll look deeper into it later. BBL.
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. A cooler 54 degrees with a big drop in humidity for us to 53%, wind gusts of 17 mph with a high of 66 expected later today. Looks like some parts of the US will be getting ice in the next few days. If you have a fireplace, I'd stack up the wood.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Andouille sausage and shrimp scramble, Eggs Benedict with asparagus and a creamy low fat shrimp sauce, regular or whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, egg burritos with cheese and chorizo, banana fritters, fluffy scrambled eggs with and without cheese, bacon or sausage links, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
Quoting 375. aislinnpaps:
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone.
Breakfast's on the sideboard:

Some day you're going to find a bunch of us on your doorstep for breakfast, and what are you gonna do then?
The sun cranked out a nice solar flare a little while ago, an X1.0 that erupted from sunspot 1893. As you can see from the top image, 1893 is rotating out of sight on the sun's southwest limb, so this morning's flare shouldn't be geoeffective. There was a CME associated with the flare, but it's not directed our way, so all is fine...

1893

1893

After 1893 is gone around the bend, the sun's activity should die down for a few days--until the next round begins.
Quoting 376. lhwhelk:

Some day you're going to find a bunch of us on your doorstep for breakfast, and what are you gonna do then?


That made me laugh aloud. That's not a bad idea, actually. If ever there is a WU meetup, Aislynn should host it.

64 yesterday, 39 this morning, won't get a whole lot warmer. November in Maine.
calm last night the ocean looked cool with the moon it was almost like the ocean was steaming pt canaveral florida
took along time to get this M storm
rainy season is almost over in latin america it is incredible how dry that part of the world can get. their electric prices have alot to do as most of the energy is hydroelectric
Quoting 374. barbamz:
Another footage from Sardinia by EuroNews. The term "mini-tornado" is strange though.




(Saved image)


(Saved image). Source.

Death toll still is rising:
Sardinia storms: At least 17 dead
Olbia and Torpe' most affected areas, thousands evacuated
AnsaMed, 19 November, 11:07

Rainfall measurements in Sardinia (P = accumulated rainfall during the last day in mm).

Google-Earth map.

Other areas in Italy are hit too with torrential and still ongoing rains. I'll look deeper into it later. BBL.


I think he meant mini hurricane or typhoon?
Melissa is about to become the strongest of the season and the awkward thing is she haven`t contribute in anything for the Ace.What a weird season,Might be the first time the strongest of the season haven+t contribute in the Ace.


Sardinia hit by heavy rain and flooding
BBC weather video, 19 November 2013 Last updated at 09:59
Heavy rain, strong winds and flash flooding. BBC Weather's Tomasz Schafernaker has the details on the stormy weather in the Mediterranean.

With an outlook at storm surge in the Adriatic Sea.
Quoting 384. allancalderini:
Melissa is about to become the strongest of the season and the awkward thing is she haven`t contribute in anything for the Ace.What a weird season,Might be the first time the strongest of the season haven t contribute in the Ace.
Why do you say Melissa isn't contributing ACE? The NHC (and WU) count ACE from named storms--that is, tropical storms, hurricanes, and subtropical storms.
Quoting 383. Sfloridacat5:


I think he meant mini hurricane or typhoon?


Yes, I think so, although it isn't a real tropical storm either (a subtropical cyclone I guess). But there is a lot of confusion in the European news with their different languages how to call this sort of weather system.

Current SST in the Mediterranean (in Celsius). Way too cold to sustain a hurricane:

Source.
Comet ISON.

Link

Link
12z Best Track remains as Subtropical.

AL, 14, 2013111912, , BEST, 0, 315N, 547W, 55, 982, SS, 50, NEQ, 100, 100, 50, 60, 1010, 450, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MELISSA, M
Good Morning Everyone:

S.S. Melissa is looking "more tropical," this morning. Convection is increasing, and tightening up, and also beginning to wrap around the center. Wind speeds are up to 65MPH, and it might become our 3rd hurricane of the 2013 Atlantic season!

Will Melissa be the last tropical cyclone of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season?

Looking back at recent climatology: 1994 was a slow season, but the Atlantic had 2 November hurricanes form. 2003 was a busier year, with 2 tropical storms forming in December, but that year had no named storms form in November. 2005 and 2007 also had late-season tropical storms forming in December.

Just a side-note: Since 1994, we have had a total of 18 named Atlantic tropical cyclones (including Melissa) forming in the months of November and December. Although 2005 was an exceptionally busy year for late-season storm formation, it can still happen in slower years.

The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season has not produced many strong or major hurricanes, but the numbers are there - 13 named storms so far!



Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 19 Nov 2013 06:00 to Wed 20 Nov 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 19 Nov 2013 01:25
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for Scotland and N-UK mainly for strong to severe wind gusts.

A level 2 area was issued for the N-Adriatic Sea, SE Italy, the E part of the Adriatic Sea and the E-coast of the Ionian Sea mainly for excessive rain and an isolated tornado/large hail event.

A level 1 surrounds the level 2 areas mainly for an isolated tornado risk, excessive rain and strong to severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for S Sardinia mainly for an isolated tornado risk.

...

DISCUSSION

Regarding the strong depression over the far W-Mediterranean:

00Z data confirms that the surface pressure is down to 998 hPa over NE Spain, 997 hPa over the Balearic Islands and 995 hPa just south of France (offshore data). With westerly boundary layer winds still present over the Balearic Islands, the depression's center is still located to the north, which is supported by latest IR loops (although thick cloud shield lowers confidence regarding the exact position). Latest phase diagrams now agree in a shallow warm-core structure with that feature, so we would not be surprised if the expected pressure of some high resolved models verifies (just shy above 990 hPa). Expected forecast track of this vortex takes it over increasingly warmer SSTs of 19-20C next to the Balearic Islands and up to 22C further to the SE. Hence I would not be surprised if this vortex bottoms out below 990 hPa while crossing the Islands. Despite aforementioned supportive ingredients, much needed cold air at mid-levels seems to be a bit diplaced to the north and east of the depression's core, and a marginal warm-up trend continues at mid-layers through the forecast. However, it would be a surprise if this feature won't keep its strength (at least) until it approaches Sardinia from the west during the afternoon hours. A gradual weakening trend is then forecast due to a rapid drop of SSTs west of that Island and also during the passage over Sardinia before regaining some strength over the Tyrrhenian Sea, where SSTs increase once again. Another landfall is anticipated over S-C Italy around midnight before entering the cooler C-Adriatic Sea during the end of the forecast period.

The main risk with that feature will be a confined area with strong to severe wind gusts, which runs from south of Sardinia to the Tyrrhenian Sea to S-C Italy. Strength of LL winds, LCLs below 800 m and some SBCAPE/LLCAPE also points to a somewhat enhanced tornado risk with onshore moving showers/thunderstorms. The tornado risk seems to be maximized over S-Sardinia (noon and afternoon) and around Napoli (Italy, 00-06Z). An isolated strong event can't be ruled out. For now a level 1 was issued due to ongoing uncertainties regarding strength and final track of that depression. ...


Whole discussion and forecast for the Adriatic area with level 2 on estofex.org.
Quoting 387. barbamz:


Yes, I think so, although it isn't a real tropical storm either (a subtropical cyclone I guess). But there is a lot of confusion in the European news with their different languages how to call this sort of weather system.

Current SST in the Mediterranean (in Celsius). Way too cold to sustain a hurricane:


Common type cut off low, shallow convective warm core below a deep pool of cold. Typical winter half year constellation there. The precipitation said to have been 450mm/12h is less typical, of course.
Quoting 326. 1900hurricane:
I read somewhere (don't remember if it was this blog or not) that someone was skeptical about yesterday's tornadoes lofting debris and moving them many miles downwind (checks and such). I think this should put that skepticism to rest.



the "Welcome to Washington" sing was found 15-20 miles away in Roanoke. glad to see whiewabbit on. my internet was out till mid afternoon yesterday, couldn't get on to get blog news. back to lurking.........
Sun's magnetic flip: 5 facts and myths about solar activity.
Sun will soon reverse its magnetic field.

Link
Quoting 392. cRRKampen:

Common type cut off low, shallow convective warm core below a deep pool of cold. Typical winter half year constellation there. The precipitation said to have been 450mm/12h is less typical, of course.


Thank you for helping out :) I'm no weather expert at all and struggeling with all those foreign languages to boot, lol.

BTW: 450mm = more than 17 inches.


Webcam of Zakynthos, Island off the westcoast of Greece, Ionian Sea (some years ago I've spent my vacation at this spot with nearly the same view from our terrace :).

Maybe interesting to watch for the next hours. Estofex about this area: Ongoing extensive cluster of storms keeps going from the overnight hours and approaches the E coast of the Adriatic Sea during the afternoon hours and the E coast of the Ionian Sea during the evening hours.


Sibenik, Croatia, Adriatic Sea.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA AT 19/0900 UTC IS NEAR
31.2N 54.6W...ABOUT 970 KM/524 NM...TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA.
MELISSA IS MOVING NORTHWARD 8 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 55 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34
KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24
KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4. LARGE SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...SECTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE REFER TO STATEMENTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 31N TO 34N
BETWEEN 52W AND 56W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 23N
TO 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS THAT ACCOMPANY
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM A 31N55W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 19N56W 14N57W...
BEYOND 10N60W INTO VENEZUELA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 47W AND 80W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW IS STREAMING FROM SOUTHERN VENEZUELA...ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA AND GUYANA BEYOND 14N56W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 12N TO 32N BETWEEN 43W AND 54W...WITHIN 300 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 12N50W 24N47W BEYOND 32N46W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES ACROSS COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 8N13W TO
5N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N18W TO 4N28W 8N37W AND 8N42W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 2N TO 4N
BETWEEN 18W AND 23W...FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 33W AND 36W...AND
FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 41W AND 45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 22W AND 30W...AND FROM
8N TO 10N BETWEEN 47W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
BEYOND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE BASE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 32N72W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 30N82W IN
NORTHERN FLORIDA...TO 28N90W...TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST NEAR
27N98W...TO NORTHERN MEXICO 29N102W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN
60 TO 120 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN
75W AND 84W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM
23N TO 27N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF
22N98W 23N90W 26N82W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND
TROUGH. A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N92W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KVAF...KEMK...KGU L...KHQI...
KEHC.....KEIR...KSPR...AND K9FW. MIDDLE LEVEL CEILINGS ARE BEING
OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS KEHC...KGBK...KIPN...
KMDJ...KDLP...AND KAXO.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER TEXAS FROM GALVESTON SOUTHWARD TO THE
DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN
THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
COASTAL LOUISIANA. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
ARE BEING OBSERVED AND/OR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN IN LOUISIANA DURING THE LAST FEW
HOURS. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS IN VALPARAISO IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA COAST FROM
BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA...TO SARASOTA...AND
IN MARATHON KEY. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN PUNTA GORDA
AND NAPLES.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE COLD FRONT FROM 29N83W TO 28N98W. EXPECT NORTHEAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE
NORTH OF THE FRONT TO THE WEST OF 85W.

...HISPANIOLA...

LARGE SWELLS FROM SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...SECTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
PLEASE REFER TO STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH THAT IS PART OF
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR...APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALSO COVERS HISPANIOLA.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER HISPANIOLA.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 12N TO 18N
BETWEEN 71W AND 80W.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WITH TIME.
THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST
24 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN
NEARLY A COL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AFTER
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES. THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH REMAINS INTACT...FROM 19N59W BEYOND
23N56W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB STARTS
WITH NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS OR
SO. HISPANIOLA ALSO ENDS UP NEARLY IN A COL FOR MOST OF THE REST
OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ENDS UP
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS OR SO.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 12N TO 18N
BETWEEN 71W AND 80W...AND FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 80W AND 88W.
BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
COVER THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 70W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 75W. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND SUBTROPICAL STORM
MELISSA IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE
WEST OF 75W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N74W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH 8N81W
IN PANAMA...BEYOND 8N83W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 76W. NUMEROUS
STRONG IS ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA AND
TO THE SOUTH OF PANAMA FROM 5N TO 7N TO THE EAST OF 80W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 10N
TO THE EAST OF 80W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE WESTERN SAHARA...TO A 21N23W DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 10N24W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO 23N34W 17N37W...TO
10N46W. THIS RIDGE IS TO THE EAST OF SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 20N
TO 32N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W. THIS PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS
BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS THAT ACCOMPANY
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF
THE 6 HOUR FORECAST OF A COLD FRONT FROM 31N72W TO 27N81W.
EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
Good morning everyone.

Good Morning All..
Melissa looking..
Well something to watch anyway..
Eventually I'd say that energy will be absorbed..
And move towards our European friends..
Maven is one it's way to Mars..
Swarm Project soon to put in space..
Cold morning for those without shelter/recovery efforts in the tornado affected ares..
And most assuredly Dr. Masters will post today..

This new release will be included.
04B about to make landfall.

Melissa looks slightly better this morning...... But needs more convection over the COC to become tropical.

Worldwide tropics are set to take a breather very soon.

Barely too warm for snow in the SE and up the E Coast





A little windy though




And a lot of precip (even for Texas)







Pitiful snow amounts
Evidence Found for Granite On Mars: Red Planet More Geologically Complex Than Thought.


Large amounts of a mineral found in granite, known as feldspar, were found in an ancient Martian volcano. Further, minerals that are common in basalts that are rich in iron and magnesium, ubiquitous on Mars, are nearly completely absent at this location. The location of the feldspar also provides an explanation for how granite could have formed on Mars. Granite, or its eruptive equivalent, rhyolite, is often found on Earth in tectonically active regions such as subduction zones. This is unlikely on Mars, but the research team concluded that prolonged magmatic activity on Mars can also produce these compositions on large scales.

See full article for more information.

Waterspout today in the harbour of Gallipoli at the southeastern tip of Italy (Ionian Sea). Pretty wild!


Probably the same one when developing.

Good, Melissa is curving out to sea now, instead of creeping towards the US.

Ships predicts Melissa to peak at 63KT, or 72.5MPH, at 36 hours from now.

Link
I am going to stick with Melissa peaking at 60KT, or 70MPH winds.

Cold front is right on top of us. Trof has pushed south into Central FL.

Quoting 410. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Cold front is right on top of us. Trof has pushed south into Central FL.



Yea, its very chilly here in MD too from a cold front........ 38 degrees right now.
12 hr. 500 mb. height change for the US.



Loop back 7 days
413. MahFL
Quoting 330. Skyepony:

Not so weird if it's a cat 5 & time of day of the first.. The first one was near dark, first glimpse/guess. They usually look extra hard at those cat 5s before declaring them.


You mean EF5 right ? Cat5 is a hurricane.....
Not much weather is going on in the US... I mean, there's some rain heading into Washington and Oregon, but that's about it.

Having taken calculus, I finally understand dProg/dt

Now I wonder what:
antideriv( (Prog)dx )


would be
Victor Gensini ‏@gensiniwx 17 Nov
Initial stage of tornado. Taken near East Peoria. pic.twitter.com/LHERGDfv2L

Quoting 416. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Victor Gensini ‏@gensiniwx 17 Nov
Initial stage of tornado. Taken near East Peoria. pic.twitter.com/LHERGDfv2L



Is that a kite I see in the sky? 0_0
Quoting 414. Torito:
Not much weather is going on in the US... I mean, there's some rain heading into Washington and Oregon, but that's about it.




hey you for got CA
Tex-Mex snow

Rare downpours and floods hit Saudi capital
by Agence France-Presse
Rappler, posted on 11/18/2013 7:30 AM | Updated 11/18/2013 7:31 AM

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia - Rare heavy downpours triggered flash floods in the Saudi capital on Sunday, November 17, forcing schools and universities to close and prompting calls by the authorities for citizens to remain indoors.

At least three people were reported missing, the state news agency SPA said quoting civil defense spokesman Colonel Abdullah al-Harithi.

He added that authorities assisted dozens of people trapped by the floods, a rare phenomenon to hit the capital of the desert kingdom.

Heavy rains, accompanied by thunderstorms, have lashed Riyadh since late Saturday, November 16, triggering flash floods in several districts and cutting off power in the city's north, according to residents.

Harithi urged Riyadh citizens, estimated at more than five million people, to stay away from rivers, valleys and flooded tunnels while the education ministry ordered schools and university closed Sunday.

Saudi Arabia, like other desert countries, rarely sees heavy rainfall and religious leaders often organize prayers for rain.

But in May last year around 20 people were killed in flooding that swept parts of Saudi Arabia, which had not experienced such a high volume of rainfall for 25 years.

And in 2011, around 10 people were killed in floods in the western city of Jeddah, where 123 people also perished in floods in 2009. ...


Saudi Arabia floods kill four
November 19, 2013 04:53 PM (Last updated: November 19, 2013 05:00 PM)




Crazy!!
Quoting 418. Tazmanian:



hey you for got CA



LOL... Here you go taz... A genuine radar from CA...



By the way... What happened to the thought of no more storms in the Atlantic?..

Told ya to wait till the 30th. ;)
Quoting 421. Torito:



LOL... Here you go taz... A genuine radar from CA...



By the way... What happened to the thought of no more storms in the Atlantic?..

Told ya to wait till the 30th. ;)




dont be a smarty pants now plzs

this is a better rader i ues all the time

Link
Quoting 422. Tazmanian:




dont be a smarty pants now plzs

this is a better rader i ues all the time

Link



That radar doesn't work for me. :( Just a big blue screen.

This one does though.

Link
Quoting 413. MahFL:


You mean EF5 right ? Cat5 is a hurricane.....


Thanks Maha.. :)
I understand Skyes point though..
How ya'll this am?
SpinSpinSpinSpin...

Quoting 423. Torito:



That radar doesn't work for me. :( Just a big blue screen.

This one does though.

Link


Morning Torito.. :)
Taz's link worked for me..
And yours too.. :)

SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
1100 AM AST TUE NOV 19 2013

VARIOUS SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF MELISSA
IS LOCATED ABOUT 20 NMI SOUTHEAST OF THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS. HOWEVER...SOME WEAK ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IN THE INNER
CORE REGION HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THE
CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE SEPARATING FROM THE ELONGATED PARENT CLOUD
BAND THAT IS LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST OF MELISSA. THESE INDICATORS
SUGGEST THAT MELISSA IS TRYING TO MAKE TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 55 KT BASED
ON A 55-KT SUBTROPICAL SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/09 KT. A STRONG COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING BERMUDA FROM THE
WEST SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE MELISSA NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE
NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO...AND CONTINUE THAT MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS. BY
96-120 HOURS...THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT OF MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHWARD AND MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND CEASE TO EXIST
AS A SEPARATE ENTITY. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS DEVELOPING TRACK SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
TVCA AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL.

THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
JUXTAPOSED DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS WHEN THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO BE AT ITS LOWEST VALUE OF AROUND 10 KT. THIS SHOULD
HELP MELISSA TO TRANSITION FROM A SUBTROPICAL TO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...AND ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. IT IS
STILL POSSIBLE THAT MELISSA COULD OBTAIN HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE
THE CYCLONE REACHES SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WATER AND MOVES INTO A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN 24-36 HOURS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS
THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL ICON.

TRACK...INTENSITY...AND WIND RADII FORECASTS DURING THE
EXTRATROPICAL STAGE AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND WERE COORDINATED WITH
THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 31.9N 54.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 33.9N 52.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 36.6N 48.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 39.5N 43.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 42.2N 37.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/1200Z 46.5N 29.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 23/1200Z 53.2N 26.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Quoting 426. pcola57:


Morning Torito.. :)
Taz's link worked for me..
And yours too.. :)


I think my browser didn't like the "11101111" in Taz's link.

Morning, Pcola.
Quoting 410. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Cold front is right on top of us. Trof has pushed south into Central FL.



And it's very nice here now where I'm at..
56Degrees and for us a low humidity of 66%..
Morning GT.. :)
Global carbon emissions set to reach record 36 billion tonnes in 2013!

Link
Quoting 373. barbamz:
Good morning everybody.


Raw-Video with aerial views.

Very bad news emerge from Sardinia (Italy) in the Mediterranean Sea (I've posted last night about the developing situation over there):

Sardinia hit by deadly cyclone and flooding
BBC News, 19 November 2013 Last updated at 09:11 GMT

At least 16 people have been killed in flooding prompted by a cyclone and heavy rain that swept through the Italian island of Sardinia.

A number of people are reported missing after rivers burst their banks, sweeping cars away and causing bridges to collapse.

The worst-hit area appears to be in and around the north-eastern city of Olbia.

Prime Minister Enrico Letta has spoken of a "national tragedy" and a state of emergency is expected to be declared.

"We're at maximum alert," Giorgio Cicalo, an official from Sardinia's civil protection authority, told Italy's Rai TV.

"We haven't seen a situation as extreme as this, perhaps for decades. Especially because it's been across the whole island."

Hundreds of people across the Mediterranean island have been moved from their homes because of the flooding caused by Cyclone Cleopatra.

Sardinian Governor Ugo Cappellacci told Italian TV that the situation on the island was "dramatic".

Olbia Mayor Gianni Giovanelli was quoted by Sky TG24 as saying that the city had been hit by an "apocalyptic"' storm.

Cyclones are extremely rare in the Mediterranean. ...


Whole article see link above.

And "Cleopatra" keeps on dumping rain onto Sardinia:




Cleopatra (saved image). Source.


Sad news, 17 inches of rain in a Mediterranean climate...
I would imagine that is close to the average YEARLY rainfall( correct me if I'm wrong).

Flooding is always the biggest killer, I think partly it is because people always take more risks with it and underestimate it despite the emphasis on flooding danger.

Many people survive tornadoes because the deafening roar and buildings and other objects getting ripped apart around them cause people to go into survival mode, in such instances, people think much smarter and are much better and knowing how to survive.

However with flooding, you ALWAYS here of people driving through flooded roadways that clearly are putting one's life at risk when it is completely unnecessary. People just don't take the destructive power of water seriously enough.

That's why as a whole, we still focus on winds too often with hurricanes, like with Sandy "but its only a category 1 how could it be that dangerous?".

Even with powerful wind storms like Haiyan, I'm sure that when all is said and done, most of the thousands who were killed was from flooding due to surge and rain.

I've heard that many have said in the Philippines about Haiyan something along these lines: " Nobody told us a tsunami was coming."

While a great job was done in evacuating a massive amount of people, I suspect the government focused too much on the 190 mph winds rather than the violent and destructive surge which I was most worried about. We have not in recent history seen how powerful the surge can be of a tropical cyclone at that power. Now we know...
Um.....BRRRRRRRRRR


...MELISSA STILL MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 54.6W
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.6 WEST. THE
STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED...AND MELISSA IS
ANTICIPATED TO TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM...FROM THE
CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.

VARIOUS SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF MELISSA
IS LOCATED ABOUT 20 NMI SOUTHEAST OF THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS. HOWEVER...

SOME WEAK ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IN THE INNER
CORE REGION HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THE
CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE SEPARATING FROM THE ELONGATED PARENT CLOUD
BAND THAT IS LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST OF MELISSA. THESE INDICATORS
SUGGEST THAT MELISSA IS TRYING TO MAKE TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE.


THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 55 KT BASED
ON A 55-KT SUBTROPICAL SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/09 KT. A STRONG COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING BERMUDA FROM THE
WEST SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE MELISSA NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE
NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO...AND CONTINUE THAT MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS. BY
96-120 HOURS...THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT OF MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHWARD AND MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND CEASE TO EXIST
AS A SEPARATE ENTITY. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS DEVELOPING TRACK SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
TVCA AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL.

THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
JUXTAPOSED DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS WHEN THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO BE AT ITS LOWEST VALUE OF AROUND 10 KT. THIS SHOULD
HELP MELISSA TO TRANSITION FROM A SUBTROPICAL TO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...AND ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. IT IS
STILL POSSIBLE THAT MELISSA COULD OBTAIN HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE
THE CYCLONE REACHES SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WATER AND MOVES INTO A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN 24-36 HOURS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS
THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL ICON.

TRACK...INTENSITY...AND WIND RADII FORECASTS DURING THE
EXTRATROPICAL STAGE AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND WERE COORDINATED WITH
THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

Quoting 413. MahFL:


You mean EF5 right ? Cat5 is a hurricane.....


I totally meant EF5. LOL, I was blogging overtired.. Think I was going to post about Melissa & got in the tornado discussion.

Melissa..
Why Dr Maue is counting ACE units for Melissa being Subtropical?

Link
Quoting 436. Tropicsweatherpr:
Why Dr Maue is counting ACE units for Melissa being Subtropical?


Some people do, others don't.
Quoting 430. HildeAndJohn:
Global carbon emissions set to reach record 36 billion tonnes in 2013!

Link


Good Morning Hilde..
Can anyone here give me an area conversion for the 36 billion tonnes?
Quoting 404. barbamz:

Waterspout today in the harbour of Gallipoli at the southeastern tip of Italy (Ionian Sea). Pretty wild!


Probably the same one when developing.



I know we have had a few screwball Warm-Core Cyclones in the Mediterranean. Was Cleopatra one of them.
Quoting 438. pcola57:


Good Morning Hilde..
Can anyone here give me an area conversion for the 36 billion tonnes?


That is not very easy to do..... Air temperature.... Pressure.... Many other things affect the amount of area that 36 billion tonnes would take up.
Quoting 430. HildeAndJohn:
Global carbon emissions set to reach record 36 billion tonnes in 2013!

Link
Aw, c'mon; that's only 4.1 million metric tons of the stuff--or 2.28 billion cubic meters--per hour. So we should be worried only if we think that the 55 cubic kilometers (or so) of excess CO2 we're pumping into the atmosphere every single day can possibly have an adverse effect on things.
Quoting 436. Tropicsweatherpr:
Why Dr Maue is counting ACE units for Melissa being Subtropical?

Link
Probably because the NHC does. And so does WU, for that matter...
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
DEPRESSION BOB06-2013
17:30 PM IST November 19 2013
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, The depression over west central Bay of Bengal moved northwestward and now lays center near 15.0N 85.0E, about 550 km east-northeast of Chennai, 430 km east-southeast of Machilipatnam and 350 km south-southeast of Vishakhapatnam.

The system would intensify into a deep depression during next 12 hours. It would move west northwestwards for some time, then west southwestward and cross south Andhra Pradesh and adjoining north Tamil Nadu coast between Chennai and Ongole around Thursday night.


According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. Associated broken low/medium cloud embedded with moderate to intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 13.5N to 18.5N and 83.0E to 88.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -75C. Convective banding is more pronounced in northeast sector of the system. Convection near the center has organized and consolidated during the past 6 hours.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center. The central pressure of the depression is 1004 hPa.

A buoy located near 14.7N and 86.0E reported mean sea level pressure of 1009.3 hPa, 24 hour pressure change of -2.4 hPa and a ship near 16.0N and 87.0E reported mean sea level pressure of 1010.5 hPa, wind of 21 knots at 1200 UTC November 19th.

The depression lies to the south of the upper tropospheric ridge which runs along 17.0N. The low level convergence along with low level relative vorticity are favorable for intensification and they have increased during past 12 hours. The sea surface temperature is about 28-29C. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind is moderate to high (15-25 knots). The Madden= Jullian oscillation index lies over phase 1 with amplitude less than 1. Numerical weather prediction models suggest that Madden-Jullian oscillation index would continue in phase 1 during next 3 days with amplitude less than 1. The current phase and amplitude are not very supportive for intensification.

Divergence in numerical weather prediction models guidance continues with respect to landfall point and time, as the track forecast varies from west southwest to northwest direction. With respect to intensification, there is more consensus suggesting slow intensification or no intensification. Current forecast is based on consensus numerical weather prediction and synoptic analysis.
Quoting 443. Neapolitan:
Probably because the NHC does. And so does WU, for that matter...


Actually, I am pretty sure that the NHC does not count Subtropical systems in ACE....

But it doesn't matter.... The NHC says that Melissa will become tropical soon.

This is from NOAA..

The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Index is calculated by summing the squares of the estimated 6-hourly maximum sustained wind speed in knots (Vmax2) for all periods in which the tropical cyclone is a tropical storm or greater intensity (sustained winds of 34 kt or greater). Note that the official NOAA definition of the ACE Index does not include those periods when the system is characterized as sub-tropical. However, we are including this information to allow for comparison between individual cyclones across all basins, many of which contain records which inadequately distinguish between tropical and subtropical cyclones. For a complete description of the ACE Index see Bell and Chelliah (2006), Journal of Climate (19) 590-612.

Link

From this, we get the impression that unnoficial numbers include subtropical systems, but official summaries do not.
Quoting 442. Neapolitan:
Aw, c'mon; that's only 4.1 million metric tons of the stuff--or 2.28 billion cubic meters--per hour. So we should be worried only if we think that the 55 cubic kilometers (or so) of excess CO2 we're pumping into the atmosphere every single day can possibly have an adverse effect on things.


Thanks for that Nea..
sorry about the late response..
Dog needed to go out..
What I'm trying to visualize is how many times over will that in a gaseous state would cover the surface of the Earth..
A common man's comparison..
Would that be as tall as a skyscraper from sea level? ect..
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
21:00 PM JST November 19 2013
====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 3.0N 105.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.
Quoting 438. pcola57:


Good Morning Hilde..
Can anyone here give me an area conversion for the 36 billion tonnes?


A lot.

The Warming continues on the High side of the climate models, as the Climate models as a whole have underplayed the warming collectively for a decade.

We stay on the High side of most if not all the trend lines upward.

The tipping points are closer, and some..here already,

as the Grand Experiment continues, unabated.



But awareness of it doubles every day.

Food fo thought.



Quoting 446. pcola57:


Thanks for that Nea..
sorry about the late response..
Dog needed to go out..
What I'm trying to visualize is how many times over will that in a gaseous state would cover the surface of the Earth..
A common man's comparison..
Would that be as tall as a skyscraper from sea level? ect..

No way.
Air at the density of water covers with 10 metres, 13 centimetres (cf unit of atmosphere).
Water 2700m.

A few tenths of ppm were added to the air this year. An almost two inch layer of CO2 got closer to two inches, say.
Quoting 439. HrDelta:


I know we have had a few screwball Warm-Core Cyclones in the Mediterranean. Was Cleopatra one of them.


I can only quote estofex.org (see post #391):
"Latest phase diagrams now agree in a shallow warm-core structure with that feature."
Quoting 442. Neapolitan:
Aw, c'mon; that's only 4.1 million metric tons of the stuff--or 2.28 billion cubic meters--per hour. So we should be worried only if we think that the 55 cubic kilometers (or so) of excess CO2 we're pumping into the atmosphere every single day can possibly have an adverse effect on things.


Go to China and ask them politely to stop, I'm sure they will.
Mag 6.3 in Indonesia!



Food for thought: "Is AGW man's slow slide into extinction?". If so the problem is going to be self-correcting.
Very wide area of high seas are associated with Melissa.

Quoting 448. Patrap:


A lot.

The Warming continues on the High side of the climate models, as the Climate models as a whole have underplayed the warming collectively for a decade.

We stay on the High side of most if not all the trend lines upward.

The tipping points are closer, and some..here already,

as the Grand Experiment continues, unabated.



But awareness of it doubles every day.

Food fo thought.





Hey Pat..
I'm in total agreement with ya..

It's so hard for me to wrap my head around the 36 Billion tonne record carbon pollution data ..
It's in a gaseous state as we all know..
And seems to be invisible to the naked eye when mixed with the other gases present in the atmosphere..
I think a visualization would be so much better way to put that figure for those of us (as you know.. :)
That have a lacking ability to comprehend the figures without the comparison..

The chart is one way..
I was hoping for an common man's comparison for another way of understanding that figure..
Quoting 453. standurground:
Food for thought: "Is AGW man's slow slide into extinction?". If so the problem is going to be self-correcting.


We will not go extinct from it, could drive the population down a bit.
I hope GFDL does not play out here.

Potential severe weather for the northeast 132 hours out.

Dr. Ricky Rood's Climate Change Blog

Change in the Weather: Climate Change and Arctic Oscillation (7)
By: Dr. Ricky Rood, 11:14 PM CST on November 18, 2013


I will come back to this below, but first a reminder of the other ideas I introduced in the middle part of the series. Most importantly, there is a stream of air that wants to flow around the North Pole. Likely in a world that has no mountains, no land and water sitting next to each other, then that air would actually circulate with the pole in the center. We live in a world with mountains and oceans and continents, which distort this stream of air. It’s a little like boulders in a creek, and water going around the boulders. The stream becomes wavy. There are other factors that also cause the air to be wavy, but I have introduced enough to make my points, and you can go back to the earlier blogs linked at the bottom for words and pictures. What causes the air to spin around the North Pole? The first thing to consider is the rotation of the Earth. The Earth’s atmosphere wants to line up with the rotation. Another important factor in determining the details of the air circulating around the North Pole is heating and cooling. The patterns of heating and cooling contribute to setting up high-pressure and low-pressure systems. Air flows from high to low pressure and as it flows towards low pressure it does its best to line up with the rotation of the Earth. This relation between high and low pressure and the Earth’s rotation is one of the most important features of the motion of the air in the atmosphere and the water in the ocean.
Quoting 460. Patrap:
Dr. Ricky Rood's Climate Change Blog

Change in the Weather: Climate Change and Arctic Oscillation (7)
By: Dr. Ricky Rood, 11:14 PM CST on November 18, 2013


I will come back to this below, but first a reminder of the other ideas I introduced in the middle part of the series. Most importantly, there is a stream of air that wants to flow around the North Pole. Likely in a world that has no mountains, no land and water sitting next to each other, then that air would actually circulate with the pole in the center. We live in a world with mountains and oceans and continents, which distort this stream of air. It’s a little like boulders in a creek, and water going around the boulders. The stream becomes wavy. There are other factors that also cause the air to be wavy, but I have introduced enough to make my points, and you can go back to the earlier blogs linked at the bottom for words and pictures. What causes the air to spin around the North Pole? The first thing to consider is the rotation of the Earth. The Earth’s atmosphere wants to line up with the rotation. Another important factor in determining the details of the air circulating around the North Pole is heating and cooling. The patterns of heating and cooling contribute to setting up high-pressure and low-pressure systems. Air flows from high to low pressure and as it flows towards low pressure it does its best to line up with the rotation of the Earth. This relation between high and low pressure and the Earth’s rotation is one of the most important features of the motion of the air in the atmosphere and the water in the ocean.



Pat...... No Tuesday tussles, alright? ;)

Current rain rate in the Mediterranean area with "Cleopatra".
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 446. pcola57:


Thanks for that Nea..
sorry about the late response..
Dog needed to go out..
What I'm trying to visualize is how many times over will that in a gaseous state would cover the surface of the Earth..
A common man's comparison..
Would that be as tall as a skyscraper from sea level? ect..
Well, the numbers I gave were for an atmosphere of 100% gaseous CO2 at standard pressure. A year's worth of our CO2 emissions would yield more than 20,000 cubic kilometers of pure CO2 at that pressure. That's a cube roughly 27 kilometers on a side. But, of course, CO2 in our atmosphere isn't anywhere close to 100% it's a well-mixed gas that just this past year briefly reached 400 parts per million for the first time in hundreds of thousands of years. That doesn't sound like much, but it's far more than enough to cause the heating we've been seeing.

Yes, the earth's atmosphere is a big place, and encompasses a vast volume. But at the current rate of around 4.1 million metric tons of CO2 per hour, we're doing our best to fill it up as quickly as we can... :-\