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Dangerous 'High Risk' Midwest U.S. Tornado Outbreak Underway

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:30 PM GMT on November 17, 2013

A rare and very dangerous late-season severe weather outbreak is underway over the Midwest U.S., where NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is predicting a "High Risk" of severe weather--their highest level of alert--over most of Indiana and Illinois, plus portions of Southern Lower Michigan and Western Ohio. This is just the second "High Risk" forecast for 2013, and the area at risk of severe weather is unusually large. According to a list of all "High Risk" forecasts issued since 1984 maintained at Wikipedia, today's High Risk area is the farthest north such a forecast has been issued so late in the year. A 992 mb low pressure system that was over Northern Illinois on Sunday morning will move northeast and rapidly intensify to 965 mb by Monday morning, dragging a strong cold front across the "High Risk" area on Sunday afternoon. Isolated supercell thunderstorms--the kind most likely to produce strong and violent tornadoes--are expected to form ahead of the front, and the SPC is expecting multiple long-track strong tornadoes to form during the early afternoon. Any tornadoes that form will be moving at highway speed--50 to 60 mph--and will be under low cloud bases around 2,000 feet, making these storms difficult to see and react to, particularly in wooded or hilly areas. If the sirens sound, seek shelter!


Figure 1. Severe weather outlook for Sunday, November 17, 2013.

A dangerous day in Chicago
Most of Illinois, including Chicago, has been placed under a special "PDS" Tornado Watch: a "Particularly Dangerous Situation." Severe thunderstorms spawning tornado warnings have already erupted over Southern Wisconsin and Western Illinois as of 10:15 am CST. Severe thunderstorms are likely to sweep through Chicago in the early afternoon during today's Ravens - Bears game, which starts at noon CST. According to NBC 5 in Chicago, loose objects are being removed from the stadium in anticipation of high winds, and officials are prepared to evacuate fans, if necessary. An NFL game will stop if there is lightning, and cannot continue until 30 minutes afterwards.


Figure 2. Prior to Sunday's severe weather outbreak, there were seven billion-dollar weather disasters in the U.S. in 2013. Five of these disasters were severe weather outbreaks--the third highest such total in history.

A slow but very expensive tornado season
It's been an unusually slow severe weather season, with the 2013 preliminary tally of 818 tornadoes the lowest year-to-date count since the extreme drought year of 1988. However, when severe weather outbreaks have come, they have been unusually destructive. According to Aon Benfield, there have been five severe weather outbreaks topping $1 billion in damages this year. This is the third highest number of such disasters on record, going back to 1980. The record is shared by 2011 and 2012, with seven billion-dollar-plus severe weather outbreaks, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. The total damage from 2013's five billion-dollar severe weather outbreaks is $14 billion, which is the third highest on record, behind 2011 ($29.6 billion) and 2010 ($16.3 billion.) The most expensive and deadliest severe weather outbreak of 2013 hit on May 20, when Moore, Oklahoma was devastated by an Ef-5 tornado that killed 23 people and did $2 billion in damage.

Stay Safe!
November is a highly unusual time to be getting a dangerous severe weather outbreak, but people need to take this event seriously. The four previous November "High Risk" events (1989, 1994, 2002, and 2005) have resulted in a total of 148 tornadoes and 62 fatalities (thanks go to wunderground member Neapolitan for this stat). Stay Safe!

Jeff Masters

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters.

**Funnel Cloud spotted near Harvard, IL**
Thanks doc!

Should be one of the more active tornado events this year. Let's hope they're mostly all below EF-2.
Thanks Doc!
Thanks Dr. Masters.
Thanks Dr. Masters!

Two tornadoes are likely on the ground. One near Waterford, WI and the other near Harvard, IL.
Thank you for the updated post Dr. Jeff! Sorry that we all can't just be chillin' on a Sunday...
Thanks Doc.
thanks Doc..

and officials are prepared to evacuate fans

to where? anyone knows?
Quoting 8. ncstorm:
thanks Doc..

and officials are prepared to evacuate fans

to where? anyone knows?

Lockerooms, stairwells, those sort of places

With all those people tho, people will need to make friends taking cover because there will not be a personal bubble
@NWSIWX: The risk for tornadoes and EF2+ tornadoes is as high as it can be. Be safe everyone!
Thanks Dr. Masters.
Found this on the NHC floaters page... any thoughts?

Interesting CC signature for Milwaukee storm...

This newscast I am watching said they are getting more concerned for Chicago
Great to see the blogs back!

98L up to 50% in 48 hours.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 850 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING WINDS
TO GALE FORCE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR THIS
LOW TO ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT... OF
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.


$$
FORECASTER BROWN
We are back?
Disgraceful WU...
21. ADCS
Just saw pictures from Washington, IL. EF3-EF4 damage, at the least.
OMG! Dont ever do that again ...I was suffering withdrawl!

I'm seriously addicted to you people!

Happy to see the blogs back up!

Thanks WU
Quoting 20. VAbeachhurricanes:
Disgraceful WU...



i agree with you on that
Quoting 19. Gearsts:
We are back?



yep a little late how evere has most of the severe weather have this about warp up for today and it is winding on down
Comments not back yet on Dr. Rood's blog, but I'm more interested in what's happening with the severe weather outbreak up in the U.S.

I assume the regulars here will be commenting on the situation as they realize the the blog is back and live.
Seriously? In the middle of a tornado outbreak?
thanks too the long down time today i think dr m sould do a new blog on the recap on the severe weather today that happen


this blog was wasted thank too the down time
Really, could have used you a few hrs ago. Weather was horrible here in Chicago. The pictures coming out of Central Illinois are so sad! All is good now but windy here.
You all picked the WRONG TIME to start doing what ever the heck you all were doing.The wrong time indeed.Should have done it Saturday when nothing was happening.
Now that we're back up...

There have been 77 tornado reports today, though keep in mind that a lot of these are probably duplicate. There are 4 confirmed deaths...one in Washington, Illinois, 1 in Brookport, Illinois, and 2 in New Minden, Illinois. The tornado that caused the 2 deaths in New Minden is the only tornado that has been rated thus far, and it has been given a preliminary rating of at least an EF-4. Path length at least 3 miles.
Quoting 31. washingtonian115:
You all picked the WRONG TIME to start doing what ever the heck you all were doing.The wrong time indeed.Should have done it Saturday when nothing was happening.
it was not a regular main thing

it was a failure that needed attention ASAP

give em a break now

could of been worse and be down till Monday
@NWSLittleRock
Based on a PARTIAL survey, the NWS office in St. Louis has assigned a PRELIMINARY rating of EF4 to the Washington County, Ill. Tornado.
Quoting 33. jamesrainier:


Looks like Memphis to Nashville got a line of storms too

Kind of crosses over my route when I drive from Texas to Ohio. Always seem to manage a storm in either Mississippi or Tennesse
Back online... terrible timing on the outage.. we have the squall line due to passover us in 30 minutes... only one rotator at this point
Quoting 30. jazzygal:
Really, could have used you a few hrs ago. Weather was horrible here in Chicago. The pictures coming out of Central Illinois are so sad! All is good now but windy here.
We missed the most interesting part of the outbreak.
Quoting 25. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


ahh yes, the typical IT room that has had one too many "quick connections" time ti find someone that knows wiring and will work in the wee hours of the day
Alive... ALIVEEEEEEEEEE :p

But really that was bad timing to go out
what a wast of a blog there sould be overe 1000 commmets or more about today severe weather now the severe weather is this about overe
When websites have problems, not fixing them can lead to much more serious problems. Do you people really believe that this was just a casual maintenance shutdown?

I have much more faith in Dr. Masters and his crew than that. I expect that it was a seriously considered necessity that involved much discussion before deciding to shut it down during a severe weather outbreak.

Quoting 35. jamesrainier:
@NWSLittleRock
Based on a PARTIAL survey, the NWS office in St. Louis has assigned a PRELIMINARY rating of EF4 to the Washington County, Ill. Tornado.

If that report and the one from New Minden are accurate, we maybe have two EF4+ tornadoes thus far.
YAY! Blog is back. Haven't been around for a while, any big tornadoes?
image test

Glad to see WU back. But pics coming out from Illinois are horrible; sorry for these folks! Look at this video (though it would stop after some time).



Good evening and good night from Germany.
oh well nothing we can do about it gust its time too move on and get back too bloging
By: Aaron Cowdin, 5:58 PM CST on November 17, 2013 +0
I want to apologize for the outage today. It came at a terrible time with what looks to me to be a pretty nasty serve weather day for parts of the US. I've heard that some of our own members were near or in the outbreak today.

I know how much the blogs and photos are part of everyone's weekend and weekday life, and I know how much it means to everyone to be able to talk through these weather events and share information. I'm sorry that we failed today, and we'll do everything we can to stop these kinds of failures in the future.

Try as we might, sometimes bad things happen in our datacenter, and today we had a very important machine go down. It is the central data storage system for all community features, including blogs, photos, etc. We used to have an online backup for this system, but we've had to go without while we move and upgrade all of our hardware. A backup system for the machine in question is literally in the mail right now, along with a ton of other hardware to prop up our entire infrastructure. We always backup our data, in several locations, but the hardware itself was not, so it had to be repaired. Thus, the outage.

Fortunately any data loss was very minimal, resulting in a loss of only items that were sent while the outage occurred. No long terms loss of data is evident, and service should be fully restored.

I hope that everyone out there is safe after the storms and I hope that you'll continue to use the blogs to keep each other safe and informed.
Quoting 43. Tazmanian:
what a wast of a blog there sould be overe 1000 commmets or more about today severe weather now the severe weather is this about overe


Don't forget 98L that is at 50%/70%.
Quoting 46. Hurricane614:
YAY! Blog is back. Haven't been around for a while, any big tornadoes?




do you evere check the commets be for asking if there was any big tornados?
44. 34. You all can kiss my bear behind.Jumping on me as if I was the only one comlaining.I see where this is going and I'm out.
Quoting 38. washingtonian115:
We missed the most interesting part of the outbreak.


It was bad for about an hour. Storms were moving really fast.
Quoting 43. Tazmanian:
what a wast of a blog there sould be overe 1000 commmets or more about today severe weather now the severe weather is this about overe


I know! People are dead, homes gone, lives changed forever.....What a shame! I think the blog would have been at more than 2,000 posts! What a waste.
Quoting 44. Xulonn:
When websites have problems, not fixing them can lead to much more serious problems. Do you people really believe that this was just a casual maintenance shutdown?

I have much more faith in Dr. Masters and his crew than that. I expect that it was a seriously considered necessity that involved much discussion before deciding to shut it down during a severe weather outbreak.



I work in this type of environment ...you never take down unless their is a real need to. Consider yourselves lucky that there is an IT staff that maintains this almost downtime free application for us. The downtime was minimal. Thanks WU staff
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
648 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN BROWN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OHIO...
HIGHLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OHIO...

* UNTIL 715 PM EST.

* AT 644 PM EST...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A TORNADO LOCATED 10 MILES WEST OF MOUNT ORAB...MOVING
EAST AT 60 MPH. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOUNT ORAB...
HILLSBORO...

IN ADDITION...STATE ROUTE 32 AT US ROUTE 68...LAKE LORELEI...
GREENBUSH...CHASETOWN...FAYETTEVILLE...BUFORD...D ANVILLE AND RUSSELL
ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND
SUBMIT YOUR REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3904 8402 3918 8400 3931 8353 3909 8346
3900 8402
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 253DEG 55KT 3907 8403

$$
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
607 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
ROBERTSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
WESTERN SUMNER COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 645 PM CST

* AT 604 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD...AND
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPRINGFIELD...CROSS PLAINS...WHITE HOUSE...PORTLAND AND ORLINDA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING THAT
WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA.

TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3662 8647 3637 8657 3653 8708 3665 8703
3666 8672
TIME...MOT...LOC 0007Z 287DEG 36KT 3659 8693

$$

ROSE
Nov 17 2013 Central Illinois Tornado

Quoting 53. washingtonian115:
44. 34. You all can kiss my bear behind.Jumping on me as if I was the only one comlaining.I see where this is going and I'm out.
I was not attacking ya wash just informing ya that this was not a planned outage

that's all

Sorry for the downtime, we had some serious hardware issues. Murphy's Law definitely bit us today.

Jeff Masters
Take the time to read this blog,it explains the reason the Blogs went down.Considering the magnitude of this failure The site was back up in record time,you might consider thanking the Devs for working so hard to get it back online so fast.
Quoting 64. JeffMasters:
Sorry for the downtime, we had some serious hardware issues. Murphy's Law definitely bit us today.

Jeff Masters


I heard it was Pottery, snagged his foot on a cable and took the whole internet down.

It's all good. Stuff happens. We carry on.
Quoting 65. auburn:
Take the time to read this blog,it explains the reason the Blogs went down.Considering the magnitude of this failure The site was back up in record time,you might consider thanking the Devs for working so hard to get it back online so fast.


Already did ...see my earlier post.
Downtime is a drag, believe me IT hates it more than the users.
I love the WU, the blog people, the Dr.'s, the IT and its members
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
715 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN FLEMING COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 745 PM EST

* AT 714 PM EST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF CARLISLE...AND MOVING EAST
AT 70 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS
WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FLEMINGSBURG...COWAN...NEPTON...ELIZAVILLE...CRAIN TOWN...
DALESBURG...MOUNT CARMEL...WALLINGFORD...PLEASUREVILLE...FOXPORT...
FAIRVIEW...EWING AND FLEMINGSBURG JUNCTION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3851 8362 3850 8359 3846 8357 3843 8357
3840 8348 3838 8393 3842 8395 3844 8399
3845 8399 3849 8394 3846 8385 3853 8364
TIME...MOT...LOC 0015Z 260DEG 63KT 3842 8407

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...0.00IN

$$

KAS
Has anyone seen AtHomeinTexas lately? She seems to have been absent for quite some time.
Quoting 64. JeffMasters:
Sorry for the downtime, we had some serious hardware issues. Murphy's Law definitely bit us today.

Jeff Masters
Learned about that Law in my Tech Report Writing when my ink went dry as I was signing my Letter of Transmittal. :-P
Thanks Dr.Masters,I see we might get Melissa in the Atlantic before all is done.I feel sorry for the lives that were lost in the tornado outbreak my condolensces to their families.
Seriously people get a grip and stop attacking Wunderground. You know you can always rely on your news stations or better yet the National Weather Service for your updates on weather. The Weather Channel has been on top of things with the pictures coming in. The damages look really bad and I already see fatalities being reported. So prayers to those going through the violent weather tonight.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
720 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN MASON COUNTY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY...
ROBERTSON COUNTY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 745 PM EST.

* AT 717 PM EST...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A TORNADO LOCATED NEAR PIQUA...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF ROBERTSON
AND SOUTHERN MASON COUNTIES...INCLUDING BLUE LICKS BATTLEFIELD...
BURIKA...ALHAMBRA...PEED AND HELENA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND
SUBMIT YOUR REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3845 8407 3845 8409 3847 8411 3848 8411
3851 8372 3850 8372 3845 8385 3848 8394
3846 8397 3843 8399
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 274DEG 48KT 3843 8402

$$
well goody..the blog is back..how many of yall were going through withdrawal symptoms..I actually got to hang out in chat for a while and made the mistake of leaving and couldnt get back in..
Some steep mid level lapse rates are sparking a few thunderstorms almost directly below the strongest mid level vorticity.









Nothing severe should come from these storms, but they are quite interesting from an academic standpoint.
Quoting 71. allancalderini:
Thanks Dr.Masters,I see we might get Melissa in the Atlantic before all is done.I feel sorry for the lives that were lost in the tornado outbreak my condolensces to their families.


Last night I said to you it was going to be 91L because 90L was used for Lorenzo. But I don't know what happened that ATCF went to 98L.
Quoting 26. Xulonn:
Comments not back yet on Dr. Rood's blog, but I'm more interested in what's happening with the severe weather outbreak up in the U.S.

I assume the regulars here will be commenting on the situation as they realize the the blog is back and live.


I think they saving Rood's blog for last..LOL
Quoting 74. ncstorm:
well goody..the blog is back..how many of yall were going through withdrawal symptoms..I actually got to hang out in chat for a while and made the mistake of leaving and couldnt get back in..


same here. was really annoyed when i couldn't get back in.
Quoting RobDaHood:


I heard it was Pottery, snagged his foot on a cable and took the whole internet down.

It's all good. Stuff happens. We carry on.

Yeah, sorry 'bout that....

It's what happens when yer dancing the Limbo while trying not to spill yer beer.......

:):))
Check frequently over at Link for the number of confirmed tornadoes. Myself and a few others will keep it accurate and updated.
The outage was a test mandated by NSA:
Can the free world survive without the WU blogs during times of meterological unrest?

Early reports indicate it is possible.

Quoting 77. ncstorm:


I think they saving Rood's blog for last..LOL
They shouldn't even put it up tonight, got more important things to worry about like the Severe Weather going on across the Midwest that is affecting life and property as we speak.
From @USTornadoes:

New Minden IL (prelim EF4) is the first violent tornado in Illinois in Nov during modern record. Prior ones:

A ways out but interesting.
Quoting 77. ncstorm:


I think they saving Rood's blog for last..LOL
No need to LOL - climate is long term trends and this severe weather outbreak - current weather - is much more important.

As a former corporate IT guy, I would have made the same decision - to get the most important blog and comments section back online as quickly as possible.

Current Warnings, watches, and storm reports.
Click "hot-linked" images for details

College of DuPage-Severe Weather & Flash Flood Warnings

Active Weather Watches and Warnings
click graphic for Weather Watch details (page refresh for current warnings)






click image for storm reports.
Quoting 81. beell:
The outage was a test mandated by NSA:
Can the free world survive without the WU blogs during times of meterological unrest?

Early reports indicate it is possible.

The goys at the SPC did a fine job today.
NOAA issued 141 #tornado warnings so far today in Midwest http://www.nws.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/today.html …
Portlight Wunderblog


Picture of Tornado in Washington, Illinois (Posted on 11/17/13 at 12:58 pm)

www.portlight.org


Washington, Illinois Tornado Damage


We are monitoring the devastating situation in the Mid-west with Multiple towns and rural areas impacted by this Terrible Severe Tornado Outbreak.

We will be reaching out with our partners to see where best we can make a difference.

Our thoughts and prayers go out to those suffering this evening.

Thank you for your support and we will keep you updated on our progress



Portlight/FaceBook


Shawn Reynolds ‏@WCL_Shawn 1h

Wow | NEW VIDEO: POV walkthrough Washington, IL #tornado damage using Google Glass | http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZOpat7IV6f0&feature =youtu.be … |
Quoting 88. hydrus:
The goys at the SPC did a fine job today.


Yes they did. Their hi-risk verification will be spot-on when it is issued tomorrow.
Washington, IL looks like several bombs went off..
GT, your video keeps playing..I tried to hide it but everytime I refresh it keeps playing..anyway you can reload it without it playing everytime the blog refresh?
Why is everybody in Chat, but I can't access to it?
AL, 98, 2013111800, , BEST, 0, 266N, 527W, 35, 1001, LO, 34, NEQ, 200, 0, 0, 200, 1008, 400, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Quoting 80. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Check frequently over at Link for the number of confirmed tornadoes. Myself and a few others will keep it accurate and updated.

There is one thats wrong. It says Paducah area and then it says a tornado moved through Paducah and through Morganfield and Shawneetown areas. That was two different storms. One went through Morganfiled/Shawneetown and then the other storm went through Brooksport and areas North/east of Paducah.
Just nasty damage. I don't know sometimes I feel like I'm so lucky or blessed where I live to not have to put up with such violent weather. It sure is not the same for others unfortunately, which speaks volumes to why life is not fair sometimes.



Jacob Wycoff @4cast4you
Follow
Wow. RT @MaxTsaparis Just haunting... RT @stephereena An aerial photo of the destruction in #WashingtonIL #tornado



PHOTO: Unbelievable damage on Mackenzie Street in #WashingtonIL from #tornado http://bit.ly/1aLzJqL (AP)
Quoting 97. ncstorm:
GT, your video keeps playing..I tried to hide it but everytime I refresh it keeps playing..anyway you can reload it without it playing everytime the blog refresh?
I'll remove it and put a link up.
Quoting 97. ncstorm:
GT, your video keeps playing..I tried to hide it but everytime I refresh it keeps playing..anyway you can reload it without it playing everytime the blog refresh?
:-P
Am I the only one getting blocked out of chat?
00z Best Track for 98L.

AL, 98, 2013111800, , BEST, 0, 266N, 527W, 35, 1001, LO, 34, NEQ, 200, 0, 0, 200, 1008, 400, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M
Quoting 104. Bluestorm5:
Am I the only one getting blocked out of chat?
Nope, I can't get in either.
Watch what happens at 44 seconds into the clip -
This was 6 AM Nov. 8th at Harnani eastern Samar

Link
Quoting 105. Tropicsweatherpr:
00z Best Track for 98L.

AL, 98, 2013111800, , BEST, 0, 266N, 527W, 35, 1001, LO, 34, NEQ, 200, 0, 0, 200, 1008, 400, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M
On the right most edge of my cone.

Quoting 104. Bluestorm5:
Am I the only one getting blocked out of chat?


Nope. Can't get in either.
Quoting 104. Bluestorm5:
Am I the only one getting blocked out of chat?

No, chat is still screwy (and apparently the blog as it ate my last comment for dinner).
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
746 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
KNOX COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...

* UNTIL 830 PM EST

* AT 745 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES EAST OF CENTERBURG...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF MOUNT VERNON...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOUNT VERNON...FREDERICKTOWN...GAMBIER...DANVILLE...MART INSBURG...
NORTH LIBERTY...AMITY...BLADENSBURG AND GANN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. IF NO
BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR CLOSET.

&&

LAT...LON 4024 8248 4026 8249 4028 8276 4035 8275
4035 8265 4055 8264 4055 8237 4057 8218
4042 8218 4024 8220
TIME...MOT...LOC 0046Z 257DEG 50KT 4030 8254

$$

LAPLANTE
this was updated at 6:39..so I dont know how true this still is

ComEd spokeswoman Martha Arendt said 89,000 customers were without power in the Chicago area. That included 12,000 in the city, 40,000 in ComEd’s south region, 23,000 to the west and 14,000 to the north.
I did hear from whitewabit. That Peoria tornado came very, very close to him. It was rain wrapped & big. He had some property damage. His family & him are okay. No electricity. He said subdivisions & a large shopping center were hit really bad.
Tornadoes, severe storms blast Midwest


Washington, Ill., firefighters try to assess the damage after a tornado leveled at least 50 homes Nov. 17.
Quoting 107. ColoradoBob1:
Watch what happens at 44 seconds into the clip -
This was 6 AM Nov. 8th at Harnani eastern Samar




Yes, unbelievable (Hernani, Eastern Samar).



I'm out. Have a good start into the next week!
Quoting 100. Doppler22:

There is one thats wrong. It says Paducah area and then it says a tornado moved through Paducah and through Morganfield and Shawneetown areas. That was two different storms. One went through Morganfiled/Shawneetown and then the other storm went through Brooksport and areas North/east of Paducah.

Things like that will be sorted out once the ratings and more detailed information starts coming in, just so you know. I have fixed it.
Echo Tops:



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2026
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0631 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN INTO S-CNTRL KY / NRN MIDDLE AND WRN TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 563...565...

VALID 180031Z - 180130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 563...565...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO POSE MAINLY AN ISOLD DMGG WIND THREAT IN ADDITION TO
PERHAPS A TORNADO.

DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWS A SW-NE ORIENTED LINE OF STORMS WITH
EMBEDDED CELLULAR ELEMENTS EXHIBITING SOME WEAK SUPERCELL
STRUCTURE/ROTATION AS INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS MOVE EWD INTO S-CNTRL KY
AND NRN MIDDLE TN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN PV ANOMALY
MOVING RAPIDLY AWAY FROM THE DISCUSSION AREA AND NEWD TOWARDS THE
CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...A CORRESPONDING SLOW
WEAKENING TREND IN THE LARGE-SCALE SETUP IS ANTICIPATED.
ADDITIONALLY...MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY THE 00Z/18
BNA RAOB WILL CONTINUE TO HINDER UPDRAFT VIGOR. DESPITE THESE
CONCERNS...THE LOW-MID LEVEL WIND PROFILE REMAINS VERY STRONG /50-70
KT H85-H7 FLOW/ AND WILL SUPPORT A LEAST SOME ISOLATED DMGG WIND
POTENTIAL PRIMARILY WITH LEWPS/BOWING SEGMENTS/SUPERCELLS...AND
PERHAPS THE THREAT FOR A TORNADO WITH THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS.

FARTHER S ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE EXISTING TORNADO WATCHES...THE
POSSIBILITY FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE EWD INTO MIDDLE TN MAY YIELD AN
ACCOMPANYING WIND DAMAGE THREAT. IF THIS SCENARIO SEEMS LIKELY...A
NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE CONSIDERED.

..SMITH.. 11/18/2013


ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...MEG...

LAT...LON 35628969 36678671 37768489 38728413 38568354 36618498
36238529 35558651 35298908 35628969
An inactive tornado year capped off with a major November outbreak, and a non-season in the Atlantic that might be capped off with an unexpected November storm.



Classic weather cliché
Quoting 115. barbamz:



Yes, unbelievable (Hernani, Eastern Samar).
I'm out. Have a good start into the next week!


Everyone needs to rethink what "storm surge" means .

Welcome to the new normal.
Nasty line blowing over Cleveland right now, wouldn't be surprised there are some waterspouts over Lake Erie right now, just offshore of Cleveland.

seems like the olny thing not working right now is the chat room
Land Cane

WOW

Mesocyclone W3 54 dBZ 11,000 ft. 10 kg/m² 0% chance 0% chance 0.00 in. 97 knots WSW (246)
‘Starting over at age 75′ after tornado hits Washington, IL.



excerpt from the story:

After the storm passed and the congregation could emerge from their shelter, the damage was clear. When the Joneses returned home, their home was destroyed.

But all was not lost. The couple, who have lived in their home for 40 years, found their two Yorkshire terriers alive and well. “I found them under the bed … where good puppies belong,” Phil Jones said.

127. SLU
Quoting 115. barbamz:



Yes, unbelievable (Hernani, Eastern Samar).



I'm out. Have a good start into the next week!


That explains the dreadful tsunami-like destruction further south. Unbelievable.
Good Evening. Just a quick comment from me tonight.

It was a steamy 89 degrees here in the heart of Texas. Quite different from a few days ago when the high was 52, and the low was near freezing.

As for the tropics, Invest 98L is poised to become a Subtropical or Tropical Storm over the next 2-3 days as it heads Northward over the open Atlantic. The storm will likely peak at moderate tropical storm strength, but it may get a boost baroclinically as a front comes in and begins absorbing the system, resulting in the system getting a bit stronger before fully transitioning over to extra-tropical.

A lot is going on for me as of present time, but I just wanted to check in and say hi.
.
Tornadoes slam Midwest US: Tornado tearing through Minooka in Illinois

the videos are just incredible..huge tornados..
Quoting 124. VAbeachhurricanes:
Land Cane



Heading for WU headquarters!
Alright guys Im out..please stay safe and heed your local warnings

Meteorologist Tim Buckley
Over 400 reports of severe weather in the Midwest today. 77 reports of tornadoes, with Illinois and Indiana being hardest hit.

ABC News is reporting that at least 5 people are dead.

Serves as a grim reminder that severe weather can happen at any point in the year.
Quoting 124. VAbeachhurricanes:
Land Cane




Home reduced to a basement. Damage was done by the Washington tornado.
12z GFS, find the more intense low on the map.
Quoting 136. CybrTeddy:
12z GFS, find the more intense low on the map.
882mb? lol
Quoting 135. Ameister12:
Home reduced to a basement. Damage was done by the Washington tornado.



the basement is not the best place two be in that photo if any one was in that basement they could have been killed if you had no other safe area two go then trying two out run the nado would have been your best way two go
Quoting 124. VAbeachhurricanes:
Land Cane

And Michigan is in the "eye" of it.
Quoting 44. Xulonn:
When websites have problems, not fixing them can lead to much more serious problems. Do you people really believe that this was just a casual maintenance shutdown?

I have much more faith in Dr. Masters and his crew than that. I expect that it was a seriously considered necessity that involved much discussion before deciding to shut it down during a severe weather outbreak.

Even the message they had up while repairing implied it was like the WW3 Fukishima meltdown of the WunderYakuza's experience.

Nashville, TN (KOHX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)
Quoting 107. ColoradoBob1:
Watch what happens at 44 seconds into the clip -
This was 6 AM Nov. 8th at Harnani eastern Samar

Link

Well that certainly seems slightly unusual for what we typically expect of storm surge...
While Dr. Rood's blog is down during the partial blog outage, my blog, as always, is open for serious commentary and news-sharing.
Quoting 140. Tazmanian:



the basement is not the best place two be in that photo if any one was in that basement they could have been killed if you had no other safe area two go then trying two out run the nado would have been your best way two go

No!
That basement was still the safest bet! Even in the strongest of tornadoes, it is overwhelmingly likely that you will survive, if you follow the standard advice:
Sturdy structure, interior room, lowest floor.

Automobiles are one of the least safe locations.
Quoting 74. ncstorm:
well goody..the blog is back..how many of yall were going through withdrawal symptoms..I actually got to hang out in chat for a while and made the mistake of leaving and couldnt get back in..
[raises hand on the withdrawal]

I could get wx info, but no blogs or pictures. It was bad.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Seriously? In the middle of a tornado outbreak?

My thoughts exactly, especially with that snarky message and 4 hour missed timeframe.

The death toll seems to change between 2 and 4 depending on which account I read. It appears that the area around Washington IL really took it on the chin. Form the damage pictures, it looks like an EF-4 or high end EF-3. The survey teams will have some work to do tomorrow. The line seems to stretching out some into Tennessee but Alabama has nothing but a few showers, and SE AL hasn't even had that. I'm hoping for a little rain, but I'll be happy to not get any if it means this system is weakening.
Photos of Washington tornado damage

Tornado damage in Washington, Illinois.
Posted Nov. 17, 2013


DAVID ZALAZNIK/JOURNAL STAR A Washington resident begins to dig through the rubble of a house destroyed by a tornado in Washington Sunday.


150. beell

01Z Day 1 Probabalistic Tornado-(click for full Outlook graphics)

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF OH...WRN
PA...WRN NY AND WRN WV...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH
VALLEY...TN VALLEY...CNTRL AND NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND...

...UPPER OH VALLEY/TN VALLEY...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A 985 MB LOW IS
PRESENT IN THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND SWWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG THE AXIS
OF A 60 TO 75 KT LOW-LEVEL JET FROM LAKE ERIE SWD ACROSS OH INTO
SCNTRL KY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT INSTABILITY IS WEAK
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LINE WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG.
IN SPITE OF THIS...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A
WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS A NEARLY CONTINUOUS LINE OF STORMS MOVES EWD
ACROSS ERN OH AND ERN KY THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING.
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ROTATING CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE
LINE. AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS CNTRL
AND ERN OH BUT THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED BY
LATE THIS EVENING. MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT THE LINE OF STORMS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS NY...PA...WRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MID-ATLANTIC...THE THREAT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ISOLATED
ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

...TN VALLEY...
A NEARLY CONTINUOUS LINE OF STORMS IS ONGOING ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF
THE LOW-LEVEL JET FROM SRN KY INTO NRN AND WRN TN. AHEAD OF THIS
LINE OF STORMS...THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS IS ESTIMATING MLCAPE
IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE NASHVILLE
00Z SOUNDING WHICH ALSO SHOWS 70 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE
MORE INTENSE CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY IS MUCH WEAKER THAN FURTHER TO THE NORTH
SUGGESTING THAT ANY WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. DUE
TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES...A TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING OR DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

..BROYLES.. 11/18/2013
Quoting 145. BaltimoreBrian:
While Dr. Rood's blog is down during the partial blog outage, my blog, as always, is open for serious commentary and news-sharing.


Serious...lol.

Nice to see the blog back up, I had reserved today for WU storm tracking...yeah. Got more driving time in, our dryer broke a belt. Got back home just in time for that squall line to move through.

Location is north of Nashville.
Nothing too bad, some lightning, winds, a temp drop of 5 degrees in one minute, heavy rains, and medium winds.
Quoting wxgeek723:


Heading for WU headquarters!

WU headquarters have been in San Francisco for years. Dr. Masters lives in Ann Arbor.
Quoting 120. wxgeek723:
An inactive tornado year capped off with a major November outbreak, and a non-season in the Atlantic that might be capped off with an unexpected November storm.



Classic weather cliché
Watch it go an be a major.
Quoting 146. ScottLincoln:

No!
That basement was still the safest bet! Even in the strongest of tornadoes, it is overwhelmingly likely that you will survive, if you follow the standard advice:
Sturdy structure, interior room, lowest floor.

Automobiles are one of the least safe locations.


Yup, all one has to do is look towards earlier this year, with Bettes and Samaras. No automobiles for me ('cept for chasing, but I don't plan on getting hit).
Basement is definitely the best place to be.
Quoting 153. BahaHurican:
Watch it go an be a major.


That would be nice, it would fulfill my major hurricane prediction of 1 for this year.
Mackinac Island currently has the lowest pressure in the CONUS. Deep but not exceptionally low.
エラー
ooh.. the html coding broken.. my bad.
Quoting 138. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Looks like TN and KY are in for it tonight... ya'll stay safe out there...
Quoting 144. ScottLincoln:

Well that certainly seems slightly unusual for what we typically expect of storm surge...
Friend of mine here says the pple on the Philippines newscasts kept complaining about PAGASA and asking why they hadn't posted any warnings about the tsunami - "why didn't they tell us about the tsunami?"

Doesn't look like what we saw with Katrina.
Quoting 146. ScottLincoln:

No!
That basement was still the safest bet! Even in the strongest of tornadoes, it is overwhelmingly likely that you will survive, if you follow the standard advice:
Sturdy structure, interior room, lowest floor.

Automobiles are one of the least safe locations.
Under the highway, safe or not? Because my teacher in Climatology said it is not safe to hide under a highway, yet the movie "Twister" proved otherwise.

This is from wiki. yeah I know not a reliable source.

..it is thought by some people that taking shelter under highway overpasses or in the southwest corner of the building provides extra protection from a tornado, but both of these probably increase the danger of injury or death.

Which is right, I think my teacher is right, but I want to be 100% certain.

Link
Cody's prediction of 1-1200 seems to have come true, he might have a future in forecasting.


Quoting 144. ScottLincoln:

Well that certainly seems slightly unusual for what we typically expect of storm surge...


This is exactly what you should expect if you get the center of a strong storm, if you first get offshore winds it will drive the water away from the coast and as soon as the winds shift to onshore the water comes rushing in with devastating effect.
Sault Ste. Marie has had 4.35" of rain in the past 24 hours. That strikes me as very unusual and rare, during late fall so far from a rich moisture source like the Gulf of Mexico.
115. barbamz

Thanks for that crackerjack work on my comment . The map was perfect.

It means the storm surge was much higher up coast than what we first thought.
That's 25 feet in seconds over 50 miles north of the eye.

There was no "focusing" of the surge at Hernani. That's a direct east facing beach .

No one in any cyclone has ever recorded that kind of surge.
Are other people seeing comments truncated because the blog field is narrower than usual?
Quoting 155. Astrometeor:


That would be nice, it would fulfill my major hurricane prediction of 1 for this year.
I hope it doesn't become a major so your prediction fails.
Quoting 165. BaltimoreBrian:
Are other people seeing comments truncated because the blog field is narrower than usual?


Me, can't see the plus, minus, or flag signs.
Word wrap ib broken.
Plussing, minusing and reporting buttons are gone.

It ain't over yet!
Sirens did wail over Dayton Ohio a few hours ago. Parents are safe.
I can on my own blog Nathan. Truncated comments are annoying. I'll check in later to see if they have it sorted out.
Quoting 166. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I hope it doesn't become a major so your prediction fails.


Do you remember this GT?

Quoting 1024. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I'll make a proposition to you and anyone who sees this, there will be a major hurricane somewhere in the Atlantic after Labor Day. Save this comment and see if I am right when that time comes for me Astro. Edit. I forgot Labor Day falls a week early this year, it is usually the 2nd week of September. So disregard comment 1019. But my proposition still stands.
172. beell
Highway Overpasses as Tornado Shelters:
Fallout from the 3 May 1999
Oklahoma/Kansas Violent Tornado Outbreak


Abstract

During the late afternoon and evening hours of 3 May 1999, tornadic supercell thunderstorms produced several long-tracked violent tornadoes that struck parts of central Oklahoma and southern Kansas. During the course of this event, many people sought shelter from approaching tornadoes under highway overpasses. Over the past 20 years, public perception that highway overpasses offer sound shelter from tornado winds has increased substantially, mainly due to the events of 10 April 1979 in Wichita Falls, TX and, especially, a video from 26 April 1991 in southern Kansas that gained widespread distribution. However, it appears that highway overpasses offer, at best, questionable shelter not only from tornadoes, but severe storms in general: three people in Oklahoma lost their lives while seeking shelter near or under overpass bridges. Evidence will be presented from several severe weather episodes throughout the country, as well, to demonstrate that highway overpasses are not acceptable storm shelter areas, for a variety of reasons. Proposed ways will be presented to communicate this information to the public, in order to counteract the perception of overpasses as potential severe storm sheltering locations.
Quoting 168. Xulonn:
Word wrap ib broken.
Plussing, minusing and reporting buttons are gone.

It ain't over yet!


Yer right ... I don't see them either.
Quoting 171. Astrometeor:


Do you remember this GT?

HAHAHA Yep, the GFS had me eye candy. :P
Quoting BahaHurican:
Watch it go an be a major.

Nothing would surprise me this year. Today was a classic setup for severe storms in Alabama and, because of a persistent warm cap, we've had nothing, not even a shower. It's still 73 with a dewpoint of 69. Our pressure is 29.96 and the pressure in Bellaire MI. at the north end of lower Michigan, is 28.98. That should give us a tremendous pressure gradient, so we at least have some wind. My high wind speed has been 10 mph. To say this has been a weird weather year would be the understatement of this century, at least.
98L/INV/XX/XX
It is working now, I just plussed Astro's comment. :P
Quoting 167. Astrometeor:


Me, can't see the plus, minus, or flag signs.


Everything looks good here.

I see that it was a nasty day in the midwest today.
Quoting 167. Astrometeor:


Me, can't see the plus, minus, or flag signs.
just some kinks in the wire's is all
Quoting Astrometeor:


Me, can't see the plus, minus, or flag signs.

I'm also seeing units change when I look at city observations change from English to metric to a combination of the two, seemingly at random. Maybe the programmers from the healthcare web site are picking up some extra revenue working for WU today. :-)
We are approaching 3000 days since Florida has been struck by a full fledged Hurricane.

Link
Quoting 179. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
just some kinks in the wire's is all


nope.. it was all my fault.
Quoting 165. BaltimoreBrian:
Are other people seeing comments truncated because the blog field is narrower than usual?

Yes.
Quoting 182. HadesGodWyvern:


nope.. it was all my fault.
so it was you
Nestor and Olga ;) Thanksgiving Terror running amok!


Quoting 184. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
so it was you


yup
It's back! Good evening! Good afternoon or Good morning blog! Depending on where you are.

Its a horrible situation in Washington, IL right now. I haven't listened to too much news from there yet.

By the way did anyone check out Chicago at 12:45 pm cst?
Quoting 181. docrod:
We are approaching 3000 days since Florida has been struck by a full fledged Hurricane.

Link
Longest period since record keeping began.

20 years

Great Middle Florida 3 August 23 1851 100 Panama City
Unnamed 3 August 17 1871 100 Jupiter Island
Quoting 187. Tornado6042008X:

It's back! Good evening! Good afternoon or Good morning blog!Depending on where you are.
Its a horrible situation in Washington, IL right now. I haven't listened to too much news from there yet.
By the way did anyone check out Chicago at 12:45 pm cst?


Ya I remember the weather experts comment..

Live shot from Chicago..

"It appears to be midnight instead of 1:00 PM."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_American _tornadoes_and_tornado_outbreaks


Past outbreaks, St. Louis in Jan. 12th 1890, hope that is not a repeat this year.


Link
Quoting 185. BaltimoreBrian:
Nestor and Olga ;) Thanksgiving Terror running amok!




Canadians drinking too much eggnog, I see.
Quoting 188. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Longest period since record keeping began.

20 years

Great Middle Florida 3 August 23 1851 100 Panama City
Unnamed 3 August 17 1871 100 Jupiter Island


True but back in the 1800's there were more bears than people in Florida - Key West was the richest and largest city. Miami was a bump on the dirt road. Dunno if I trust that one.

;>)
- take care
Quoting 191. Astrometeor:


Canadians drinking too much eggnog, I see.


Bourbon or rum do you think?
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Sault Ste. Marie has had 4.35" of rain in the past 24 hours. That strikes me as very unusual and rare, during late fall so far from a rich moisture source like the Gulf of Mexico.

Look at the temperatures before the front passes through. For whatever reason, a strong gulf fetch developed early this morning and transported tropical air and moisture as far north as Ontario. The rapid deepening of the low, now pulling north into Canada, must have acted like a giant suction machine that had an unobstructed path from Illinois to the Gulf.
Quoting 192. docrod:


True but back in the 1800's there were more bears than people in Florida - Key West was the richest and largest city. Miami was a bump on the dirt road. Dunno if I trust that one.

;>)
- take care


I'll check HURDAT.
Quoting 185. BaltimoreBrian:
Nestor and Olga ;) Thanksgiving Terror running amok!


You what is going to be funny, the Canadian Model predicting storms till after the season.
Quoting 195. BaltimoreBrian:


I'll check HURDAT.
Yeah do that, 20 years does seem like a long time.
Quoting 193. BaltimoreBrian:


Bourbon or rum do you think?


Or both?? 8>)
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Nestor and Olga ;) Thanksgiving Terror running amok!



Those are just the two lost lows the GEM/CMC had in the Gulf, headed right for my house, every weekend since June. The CMC decided to move them east because people were not taking them seriously about the Gulf. :-)
Quoting 124. VAbeachhurricanes:
Land Cane


It definitely feels like a land cane, winds are really beginning to pick up in strength.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
just some kinks in the wire's is all

I can tell you've never been responsible for a major commercial website. Those Monday morning meetings with the boss after an outage required more explanation that "a kink in the wire"....that's assuming you kept your job. :-)
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport Lat: 42.67%uFFFDN Lon: 83.42%uFFFDW Elev: 1004 Last Update on Nov 17,
8:53 pm EST Overcast and Windy 52 %uFFFDF (11 %uFFFDC) Humidity: 66 % Wind Speed: SW 32 G 56 MPH Barometer: 29.27" (991.0 mb) Dewpoint: 41 %uFFFDF (5 %uFFFDC) Wind Chill: 44 %uFFFDF (7 %uFFFDC) Visibility: 10.00 mi. More Local Wx: 3 Day History:">

This low is no joke, stronger than anything this hurricane season had to offer, LOL
Quoting 199. sar2401:

Those are just the two lost lows the GEM/CMC had in the Gulf, headed right for my house, every weekend since June. The CMC decided to move them east because people were not taking them seriously about the Gulf. :-)


The GFS often makes the Caribbean south of the Bahamas suspiciously active from mid May on. I deep sea fish there in mid May in a 42 foot charter boat and wonder when someday one of these GFS fantasies will prove to be a reality
G'nite all. I post again when we hit 3000 days without a Florida Hurricane.

I love the quiet!
Continental U.S. Hurricanes (Detailed): 1851 to 1945, 1983 to 2012

9/12/1852 landfall 28.0 N 82.8 W 982 mb 70 kts
10/9/1852 landfall 29.9 N 84.4 W 965 mb 90 kts
8/31/1856 landfall 30.2 N 85.9 W 965 mb 90 kts
10/28/1859 landfall 27.7 N 82.8 W 974 mb 80 kts
10/23/1865 landfall 25.4 N 81.1 W 969 mb 90 kts
10/6/1867 landfall 29.6 N 83.4 W 982 mb 70 kts
6/10/1870 landfall 24.6 N 80.8 W 970 mb 70 kts

Several hurricanes hit Florida but no majors!
Quoting 202. Jedkins01:
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport Lat: 42.67%uFFFDN Lon: 83.42%uFFFDW Elev: 1004 Last Update on Nov 17,
8:53 pm EST Overcast and Windy 52 %uFFFDF (11 %uFFFDC) Humidity: 66 % Wind Speed: SW 32 G 56 MPH Barometer: 29.27" (991.0 mb) Dewpoint: 41 %uFFFDF (5 %uFFFDC) Wind Chill: 44 %uFFFDF (7 %uFFFDC) Visibility: 10.00 mi. More Local Wx: 3 Day History:">

This low is no joke, stronger than anything this hurricane season had to offer, LOL

Yep, and it's only getting stronger! Also can confirm that winds have been gusting 50-60mph.
Quoting wxchaser97:

It definitely feels like a land cane, winds are really beginning to pick up in strength.

Cleveland Hopkins reported a maximum gust of 59 mph, and Burke Lakefront reported 61 mph. I talked to my sister an hour ago. The front has moved through with no reports of any tornadoes but a fair number of trees down from straight-line winds. They are still getting 40 mph gusts behind the front and it looks like they will get lake effect snow tomorrow.
Pressure down to 979.0 mb at Sault Ste. Marie. Rainfall up to 4.57" for this storm, although now longer than 24 hours.

Winds are now west at Sault Ste. Marie and the low center has moved into Ontario.

Quoting 207. sar2401:

Cleveland Hopkins reported a maximum gust of 59 mph, and Burke Lakefront reported 61 mph. I talked to my sister an hour ago. The front has moved through with no reports of any tornadoes but a fair number of trees down from straight-line winds. They are still getting 40 mph gusts behind the front and it looks like they will get lake effect snow tomorrow.

The squall line gave me just some heavy rain and breezy conditions, wasn't impressive. Sounds like it was interesting where she was.
strange thing.. this blog is actually running better for me, no issues, no word wrap drops, no +s & -'s dropping and its actually running smoother than it has since I started reading this blog

running on firefox

land cane?

eerie feeling that this is a few weeks after that Derecho hit Europe. the sat images almost looks the same
I was curious, being a fair tyro at this, is there a pattern similar to the MJO near the poles?



211. beell
Quoting 202. Jedkins01:
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport Lat: 42.67%uFFFDN Lon: 83.42%uFFFDW Elev: 1004 Last Update on Nov 17,
8:53 pm EST Overcast and Windy 52 %uFFFDF (11 %uFFFDC) Humidity: 66 % Wind Speed: SW 32 G 56 MPH Barometer: 29.27" (991.0 mb) Dewpoint: 41 %uFFFDF (5 %uFFFDC) Wind Chill: 44 %uFFFDF (7 %uFFFDC) Visibility: 10.00 mi. More Local Wx: 3 Day History:">

This low is no joke, stronger than anything this hurricane season had to offer, LOL


Nice example of the pressure fall/rise couplet here and the isallobaric wind (crossing the isobars at a right angle). Saw several reports in western IL after the front of westerly winds of 40/G70 earlier today.


Current RAP 2 hrs surface pressure change-click for full image

Major correction in Sault Ste. Marie rainfall total!

I was double-counting some readings and the actual total is 2.90" now.
AL, 98, 2013111800, , BEST, 0, 266N, 527W, 40, 1001, LO
Quoting 160. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Under the highway, safe or not? Because my teacher in Climatology said it is not safe to hide under a highway, yet the movie "Twister" proved otherwise.

This is from wiki. yeah I know not a reliable source.

..it is thought by some people that taking shelter under highway overpasses or in the southwest corner of the building provides extra protection from a tornado, but both of these probably increase the danger of injury or death.

Which is right, I think my teacher is right, but I want to be 100% certain.

Link

How did Twister "prove" that it was safe to seek shelter under a highway overpass?
Quoting 162. NasBahMan:


This is exactly what you should expect if you get the center of a strong storm, if you first get offshore winds it will drive the water away from the coast and as soon as the winds shift to onshore the water comes rushing in with devastating effect.

Do you have an storm tide elevation traces that support this? I've seen none that show a sudden wave like a tsunami. A quick rise perhaps, but we are talking a quick rise over minutes to a few hours, not a single, rushing wave.
I'm seeing "the overpass is safe comments". Um... did we not learn from May 3, 1999 tragedy?
Quoting 214. ScottLincoln:

How did Twister "prove" that it was safe to seek shelter under a highway overpass?


Well, you know, the movies... They never lie or stretch the laws of physics.

BTW, anyone ever find that cow that was in the preview but not the movie?
218. beell
Quoting 214. ScottLincoln:

How did Twister "prove" that it was safe to seek shelter under a highway overpass?


It proved that if you got to go, you might as well be chained to (a young) Helen Hunt and some pump house piping.
Quoting 214. ScottLincoln:

How did Twister "prove" that it was safe to seek shelter under a highway overpass?


Movies are always real. Duh.
Quoting 201. sar2401:

I can tell you've never been responsible for a major commercial website. Those Monday morning meetings with the boss after an outage required more explanation that "a kink in the wire"....that's assuming you kept your job. :-)
Leave Crypt Keeper alone. He gives the important information for you to digest in your own time, and leaves everyone alone to bicker. I hang on his every post, and when I disagree, words are flying!
BTW, being under an underpass is actually worse, the wind moves faster under it, causing a low pressure suction. That unless you are very lucky will suck you out right into the tornado. Do not ever do that.
Quoting 214. ScottLincoln:

How did Twister "prove" that it was safe to seek shelter under a highway overpass?


Well The Day After Tomorrow proved that hurricanes come from the arctic and The Wizard of Oz proved that tornadoes create color.
Quoting 216. Bluestorm5:
I'm seeing "the overpass is safe comments". Um... did we not learn from May 3, 1999 tragedy?


No, we didn't. And we don't learn from Major Hurricane hits either. Unless they happen without gaps.

To be honest, in the middle of 'nowhere', with nothing around you, where is "safe"? The open corn field? Even a Ditch, of which there may not be one, isn't that great either.
Quoting 223. Dakster:


No, we didn't. And we don't learn from Major Hurricane hits either. Unless they happen without gaps.

To be honest, in the middle of 'nowhere', with nothing around you, where is "safe"? The open corn field? Even a Ditch, of which there may not be one, isn't that great either.


Lie down flat flat flat flat.
Quoting 222. wxgeek723:


Well The Day After Tomorrow proved that hurricanes come from the arctic.

Also proved that a major city can get hit by dozens of EF-5's at once.
Quoting 216. Bluestorm5:
I'm seeing "the overpass is safe comments". Um... did we not learn from May 3, 1999 tragedy?

My understanding is that during the May 1999 tornado event, someone died at every location where a tornado intercepted a highway overpass.
Quoting 224. VAbeachhurricanes:


Lie down flat flat flat flat.


I am overweight, flat isn't really an option.
Quoting 188. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Longest period since record keeping began.

20 years

Great Middle Florida 3 August 23 1851 100 Panama City
Unnamed 3 August 17 1871 100 Jupiter Island


in the 2000s 55 storms affected florida
in the 2010s its 3
Quoting 225. wxchaser97:

Also proved that a major city can get hit by dozens of EF-5's at once.


And that they can all merge into one at the same time an earthquake is occurring.


Lol I consider that movie a comedy.
5 years before Twister there was this infamous video in Kansas on April 26, 1991

Quoting 226. ScottLincoln:

My understanding is that during the May 1999 tornado event, someone died at every location where a tornado intercepted a highway overpass.


To be fair it had 300 mph winds, those people weren't in great position regardless if there was a overpass or not.

However for 100-150 mph tornadoes, it can increase the winds to 125-175. Which can be much greater a danger.
Quoting 217. Dakster:


Well, you know, the movies... They never lie or stretch the laws of physics.

BTW, anyone ever find that cow that was in the preview but not the movie?

There is also a scene with a flying wheel or something similar that was in the trailer but not the movie. They joked about it in the MTV movie awards parody.
Quoting 227. Dakster:


I am overweight, flat isn't really an option.


You'll be harder to pick up though... So thats a plus
Quoting 231. VAbeachhurricanes:


To be fair it had 300 mph winds, those people weren't in great position regardless if there was a overpass or not.

However for 100-150 mph tornadoes, it can increase the winds to 125-175. Which can be much greater a danger.

Only one tornado had radar-estimated 300mph winds... they were not at ground level, and were only for a brief period in a single location. We very very likely did not have 300mph winds hitting the highway overpasses as described in my earlier post.
Quoting 230. BaltimoreBrian:
5 years before Twister there was this infamous video in Kansas on April 26, 1991


They didn't get a direct hit from the tornado.
Their situation was also somewhat unique in that the girders underneath some overpasses might offer some protection. The widely accepted advice still remains a lowering or ditch face down.
OVERPASSES AND TORNADO SAFETY

Not a Good Mix.....

Many people mistakenly think that a highway overpass provides safety from a tornado.
In reality, an overpass may be one of the worst places to seek shelter from a tornado.
Seeking shelter under an overpass puts you at greater risk of being killed or seriously
injured by flying debris from the powerful tornadic winds.

The idea that overpasses offer safety probably began in 1991, when a television news crew and
some citizens rode out a very weak tornado under an overpass along the Kansas Turnpike. The
resulting video continues to be seen by millions, and appears to have fostered the idea that
overpasses are preferred sources of shelter, and should be sought out by those in the path of a
tornado. In addition, news magazine photographs of people huddled under an overpass with an
approaching tornado imply that this is the correct safety procedure. Nothing can be further
from the truth!


Read more >>



NOAA report on April 26, 1991 Overpass Tornado (Slide 4 or a 25-slide report)

The tornado had an official intensity of F1, but the report indicates it may have been of F2 intensity.
237. beell
So...I'll post it again.

Highway Overpasses as Tornado Shelters:
Fallout from the 3 May 1999
Oklahoma/Kansas Violent Tornado Outbreak


Abstract

During the late afternoon and evening hours of 3 May 1999, tornadic supercell thunderstorms produced several long-tracked violent tornadoes that struck parts of central Oklahoma and southern Kansas. During the course of this event, many people sought shelter from approaching tornadoes under highway overpasses. Over the past 20 years, public perception that highway overpasses offer sound shelter from tornado winds has increased substantially, mainly due to the events of 10 April 1979 in Wichita Falls, TX and, especially, a video from 26 April 1991 in southern Kansas that gained widespread distribution. However, it appears that highway overpasses offer, at best, questionable shelter not only from tornadoes, but severe storms in general: three people in Oklahoma lost their lives while seeking shelter near or under overpass bridges. Evidence will be presented from several severe weather episodes throughout the country, as well, to demonstrate that highway overpasses are not acceptable storm shelter areas, for a variety of reasons. Proposed ways will be presented to communicate this information to the public, in order to counteract the perception of overpasses as potential severe storm sheltering locations.
Brian,

Two things about that. One that bridge had girders and place for you to hide. Second,notice it didn't destroy/throw the vehicles underneath. So, however it hit the overpass, the tornado didn't create the same effect that killed the people in the 1999 one.

I'm too lazy to research how strong the 1991 was.

Still scary as all heck though. Not a big tornado fan - and I have seen my share of them. (Not F5s, maybe an F2)
Quoting 233. VAbeachhurricanes:


You'll be harder to pick up though... So thats a plus


I see them suckers pick up things a whole lot heavier than I am and throw them like they are nothing.
I'm cheering for Florida to go 10 years without a major.Wouldn't that be awesome for them?.
Kokomo, Indiana was hit very hard today.
Quoting 241. Ameister12:
Kokomo, Indiana was hit very hard today.


Dang... That is bad...

Funny thing, everytime I hear/read Kokomo, Indiana I can't help but think of the beach boys. Even though I know it has nothing to do with him.
243. beell
Shields Blvd Overpass-May 3rd, 1999

...There were approximately 12 people under the bridge (the exact number is not known). Perhaps it's possible to argue that since there were 12 there and only 1 died, that's not bad. Unfortunately, what has not been well-publicized are the horrific injuries suffered by all but one of the survivors under the bridge. The casualties all had serious injuries, some life-threatening, from the effects of flying debris. Their injuries included, but are not limited to: compound fractures and shattered bones, missing fingers, missing ears, missing noses, and being impaled by pieces of shingles, 2x4s, etc...
I feel the best thing to do would be to stop by a guardrail, and get under it and hang on for dear life.
Quoting 241. Ameister12:
Kokomo, Indiana was hit very hard today.


I have relatives that live north of there, I hope they are okay.

Central Indiana is a real bad place to be during a storm, the place is flat...and not many basements.
Quoting 244. VAbeachhurricanes:
I feel the best thing to do would be to stop by a guardrail, and get under it and hang on for dear life.


Hmmm perhaps there should be designated shelters along interstates in the Midwest and Southeast, similar to rest stops except just underground storm shelters on the side of the road. Or double rest stops as storm shelters.
Quoting 215. ScottLincoln:

Do you have an storm tide elevation traces that support this? I've seen none that show a sudden wave like a tsunami. A quick rise perhaps, but we are talking a quick rise over minutes to a few hours, not a single, rushing wave.
Charts? Man, have you been under a rock while people are describing nature to you? This stuff is real, and is hard to describe. The next day at starbucks Yankees talk about "Wow, Ive never seen that before, the water rose over the seawall and inundated our house. Unprecedented, in the very short time that we have been here". We do not understand anything. We receive the information as it comes crashing down upon us, and then, and only then can we make sense of it, if we live. This guy is telling you 101,basic,even a house cat can figure it out stuff, and you ask him that? Are you N.G. from fracking central?
Quoting 240. washingtonian115:
I'm cheering for Florida to go 10 years without a major.Wouldn't that be awesome for them?.

That would be really good. Although I can't help but think about how Florida has just sat quietly watching all these disasters occurring around them while the clock is ticking for the next cane (or other disaster) there.

Come to think of it, nothing extremely significant has happened in FL since Wilma. Probably the two most significant events since Wilma were the 2007 Central FL February Tornado outbreak, and Fay in 08.

Since this has been a very long stretch since the last FL cane, people must be the most complacent they have been in a long time. Not good. Might get slammed with a Cat 4 when people will just expect it to fizzle like Karen or be relatively minimal like Ernesto.
Quoting 226. ScottLincoln:

My understanding is that during the May 1999 tornado event, someone died at every location where a tornado intercepted a highway overpass.


Two tornadoes hit three overpasses. One death at each overpass I believe.

Guess what? One was F5 while the other was only F2. It doesn't matter the strength because the winds under overpass will be much stronger than tornado itself because of tunnel effect.
Quoting 223. Dakster:


No, we didn't. And we don't learn from Major Hurricane hits either. Unless they happen without gaps.

To be honest, in the middle of 'nowhere', with nothing around you, where is "safe"? The open corn field? Even a Ditch, of which there may not be one, isn't that great either.


Lying flat in the ditch is safer than overpass because the winds are much less inside ditch with all of those strong winds going over you. The friction also slow down the winds very close to the ground.
Quoting 241. Ameister12:
Kokomo, Indiana was hit very hard today.
God bless America.
Quoting 213. Tazmanian:
AL, 98, 2013111800, , BEST, 0, 266N, 527W, 40, 1001, LO
I see a renumber coming up.
Quoting 247. Pallis:
Charts? Man, have you been under a rock while people are describing nature to you? This stuff is real, and is hard to describe. The next day at starbucks Yankees talk about "Wow, Ive never seen that before, the water rose over the seawall and inundated our house. Unprecedented, in the very short time that we have been here". We do not understand anything. We receive the information as it comes crashing down upon us, and then, and only then can we make sense of it, if we live. This guy is telling you 101,basic,even a house cat can figure it out stuff, and you ask him that? Are you N.G. from fracking central?


Uhh... Lay off the reefer dude.
Quoting 253. VAbeachhurricanes:


Uhh... Lay off the reefer dude.


who still calls it a reefer
Quoting 254. nwobilderburg:


who still calls it a reefer


Supertroopers.
Quoting 255. VAbeachhurricanes:


Supertroopers.


such a good movie...
Quoting 215. ScottLincoln:

Do you have an storm tide elevation traces that support this? I've seen none that show a sudden wave like a tsunami. A quick rise perhaps, but we are talking a quick rise over minutes to a few hours, not a single, rushing wave.


In hurricane Andrew the settlement of Current North Eleuthera went from on offshore wind that pushed the water away from the coast for an estimated 2 to 3 miles and then when the wind shifted it created a storm surge of 26' in a matter of minutes
Quoting 257. NasBahMan:


In hurricane Andrew the settlement of Current North Eleuthera went from on offshore wind that pushed the water away from the coast for an estimated 2 to 3 miles and then when the wind shifted it created a storm surge of 26' in a matter of minutes


Do you have evidence?
Quoting 250. Bluestorm5:


Lying flat in the ditch is safer than overpass because the winds are much less inside ditch with all of those strong winds going over you. The friction also slow down the winds very close to the ground.


Some areas don't have ditches... I guess the best way is to avoid being around one in the first place.
Quoting 253. VAbeachhurricanes:


Uhh... Lay off the reefer dude.
I only smoke American grown tobacco dude. Senaca nation.
Quoting 252. Andrebrooks:
I see a renumber coming up.



i think its still A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE so you wont be seeing a renumber any time sooon un less the nhc says it has ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS wish i dont think it has yet
Quoting 258. VAbeachhurricanes:


Do you have evidence?
Well documented at the time. You'd have to dig into ZNS's camera footage; the Bahamas Met Office would have some documentation. You could come to The Bahamas and interview survivors for yourself.

However, I still don't think the surge during Andrew ran up in a matter of SECONDS, the way that surge seems to have done in the footage we just looked at. I wasn't in Current, though.
Quoting 258. VAbeachhurricanes:


Do you have evidence?


Here you go http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1992andrew.html,
maybe you could do a little research of your on to find these thing out and by the way the evidence I have is that it was related to me two days after the storm by over one hundred residents of the Current when I was doing a damage assessment and relief work in Eleuthera and I saw the water marks inside the structures that survived the storm, and by the way the British Destroyer HMS Cardiff was six miles off of Harbour Island during Andrew's passage and they recorded wind gusts in excess of 225 M.P.H.
Quoting 252. Andrebrooks:
I see a renumber coming up.

I couldn't find 40 kt on the ATCF, only 35 kt.
Quoting 263. BahaHurican:
Well documented at the time. You'd have to dig into ZNS's camera footage; the Bahamas Met Office would have some documentation. You could come to The Bahamas and interview survivors for yourself.

However, I still don't think the surge during Andrew ran up in a matter of SECONDS, the way that surge seems to have done in the footage we just looked at. I wasn't in Current, though.


Were there no tide gauges at the coast? I would love to see that if they are available.
Quoting 264. NasBahMan:


Here you go http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1992andrew.html,
maybe you could do a little research of your on to find these thing out and by the way the evidence I have is that it was related to me two days after the storm by over one hundred residents of the Current when I was doing a damage assessment and relief work in Eleuthera and I saw the water marks inside the structures that survived the storm, and by the way the British Destroyer HMS Cardiff was six miles off of Harbour Island during Andrew's passage and they recorded wind gusts in excess of 225 M.P.H.
I'm just about to go make 999 more login names so I can plus this 1000 times...
Quoting 261. Pallis:
I only smoke American grown tobacco dude. Senaca nation.


thats actually much worse for you...
Quoting 266. VAbeachhurricanes:


Were there no tide gauges at the coast? I would love to see that if they are available.
Did u look at the Andrew report from NHC? They have most if not all the data in there.
Quoting 263. BahaHurican:
Well documented at the time. You'd have to dig into ZNS's camera footage; the Bahamas Met Office would have some documentation. You could come to The Bahamas and interview survivors for yourself.

However, I still don't think the surge during Andrew ran up in a matter of SECONDS, the way that surge seems to have done in the footage we just looked at. I wasn't in Current, though.


Actually Baha I was told that it came rushing in with a thunderous roar, they went from no water to the water rising to ceiling height within 5-10 minutes and this was in structures that had an elevation of 12'-15' above sea level, some people went into there attics to escape the water, luckily most of the attics had dormer windows so they were able to escape when they had to
Quoting 259. Dakster:


Some areas don't have ditches... I guess the best way is to avoid being around one in the first place.
That's what I was saying last night. Storm chasing is great if you have a team of Maseratis with a fail safe escape plan, and a bat cave to hide in just in case, but for the normal adventure scientists, it is a bad idea. One minute you are chasing the storm and the next the storm is closing in on you with no exit, and no time to find one.
Quoting 270. NasBahMan:


Actually Baha I was told that it came rushing in with a thunderous roar, they went from no water to the water rising to ceiling height within 5-10 minutes and this was in structures that had an elevation of 12'-15' above sea level, some people went into there attics to escape the water, luckily most of the attics had dormer windows so they were able to escape when they had to
This is what I heard also. I didn't get to see the water marks like you did, but I have friends who ended up there post-storm [Defence Force, BEC] who saw the damage first-hand and like you spoke to residents. I never forget the goodness of God that Andrew did not pass closer to New Providence.
Quoting 266. VAbeachhurricanes:


Were there no tide gauges at the coast? I would love to see that if they are available.


I may be wrong but I don't think we have any tide gauges even today much less in 1992.
Quoting 253. VAbeachhurricanes:


Uhh... Lay off the reefer dude.
Quoting 261. Pallis:
I only smoke American grown tobacco dude. Senaca nation.


Well you sure coulda fooled me...
Quoting 264. NasBahMan:


Here you go http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1992andrew.html,
maybe you could do a little research of your on to find these thing out and by the way the evidence I have is that it was related to me two days after the storm by over one hundred residents of the Current when I was doing a damage assessment and relief work in Eleuthera and I saw the water marks inside the structures that survived the storm, and by the way the British Destroyer HMS Cardiff was six miles off of Harbour Island during Andrew's passage and they recorded wind gusts in excess of 225 M.P.H.


That says nothing about a surge rising that fast... OR about the 225mph wind gust. The report says a 120kt gust was recorded on harbor island, before the anemometer stopped working...
Quoting 272. BahaHurican:
This is what I heard also. I didn't get to see the water marks like you did, but I have friends who ended up there post-storm [Defence Force, BEC] who saw the damage first-hand and like you spoke to residents. I never forget the goodness of God that Andrew did not pass closer to New Providence.


Actually the southern eyewall past just 25 miles to the north of Nassau, fortunately Andrew was extremely compact, if it had been the size of Floyd we would have been in trouble
Quoting 272. BahaHurican:
This is what I heard also. I didn't get to see the water marks like you did, but I have friends who ended up there post-storm [Defence Force, BEC] who saw the damage first-hand and like you spoke to residents. I never forget the goodness of God that Andrew did not pass closer to New Providence.


At the Deering Estate there is a water mark 18' up that shows the storm surge that hit there...

I went to a presentation that Max Mayfield put on there a couple of years ago and he mentioned it.
NBC bought NewsVine, NBC bought The Weather Channel , NBC bought this .

Watch the best site on the web crash.
Quoting 276. NasBahMan:


Actually the southern eyewall past just 25 miles to the north of Nassau, fortunately Andrew was extremely compact, if it had been the size of Floyd we would have been in trouble
That's my point. 25 miles further south, and Nassau would have been in deep doodoo.
Quoting 265. Bobbyweather:

I couldn't find 40 kt on the ATCF, only 35 kt.



AL, 98, 2013111800, , BEST, 0, 266N, 527W, 40, 1001, LO,


its there you this need too look harder
Quoting 268. nwobilderburg:


thats actually much worse for you...
That's what people say. I eat steak 3 times a week, breath poisonous vapors continuously, and drink Mountain dew all day, and yet I am still alive. Oh, and I have smoked 2 packs a day for 15 years and a pack for 12. I certainly do not credit my long life to these habits, but for another factor. Revenge. Everyone has to have a reason to live. I suggest you pick one now before you die.
Quoting 211. beell:


Nice example of the pressure fall/rise couplet here and the isallobaric wind (crossing the isobars at a right angle). Saw several reports in western IL after the front of westerly winds of 40/G70 earlier today.


Current RAP 2 hrs surface pressure change-click for full image



That will do some damage, 40 mph sustained with gusts to 70 is not childs play, there will be trees and power lines down from that, and even minor structural damage. This great lakes low is proving to be be like a sold tropical storm in its impact.
Quoting 281. Pallis:
That's what people say. I eat steak 3 times a week, breath poisonous vapors continuously, and drink Mountain dew all day, and yet I am still alive. Oh, and I have smoked 2 packs a day for 15 years and a pack for 12. I certainly do not credit my long life to these habits, but for another factor. Revenge. Everyone has to have a reason to live. I suggest you pick one now before you die.


I had a uncle that drank a gallon of moonshine a day. We kept telling him it was going to kill him. It finally did, at 102...

When I go, I want to die peacefully in my sleep like my grandfather did, unlike the people riding in his car at the time.
Quoting 275. VAbeachhurricanes:


That says nothing about a surge rising that fast... OR about the 225mph wind gust. The report says a 120kt gust was recorded on harbor island, before the anemometer stopped working...


Unfortunately just like in the Philippines we will never have the 'verified instrument readings' in the Bahamas or for that matter most island nations some people want to verify the intensity of storms because we don't have the weather instruments in place like are available in the USA. For hundred of years we have relied on eyewitness accounts and if we are lucky barometric pressure reports to document the strength of cyclones all over the globe
Quoting 282. Jedkins01:


That will do some damage, 40 mph sustained with gusts to 70 is not childs play, there will be trees and power lines down from that, and even minor structural damage. This great lakes low is proving to be be like a sold tropical storm in its impact.

Definitely a good case of cyclogenesis with a classic PV hook and tropopause folding.

Just for contrast, here is what it looked like today in Nassau.



I don't think I would feel comfortable in a house this close to the water [and I definitely don't want to pay the homeowner's insurance on it], but can you understand how people can get so complacent?


My turn to be under a watch. Just went outside to clear the yard of stuff because 70+mph gusts possible. And to be honest, it doesn't feel half bad outside for a November night :P
Quoting 264. NasBahMan:


Here you go http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1992andrew.html,
maybe you could do a little research of your on to find these thing out and by the way the evidence I have is that it was related to me two days after the storm by over one hundred residents of the Current when I was doing a damage assessment and relief work in Eleuthera and I saw the water marks inside the structures that survived the storm, and by the way the British Destroyer HMS Cardiff was six miles off of Harbour Island during Andrew's passage and they recorded wind gusts in excess of 225 M.P.H.
Sorry man, but here on the mainland it is like that movie armed and dangerous with John Candy, but in real life, everyday. Weather deniers everywhere on this blog.
wxchaser97 - Did you get any nasty storms today?
Quoting 288. Pallis:
Sorry man, but here on the mainland it is like that movie armed and dangerous with John Candy, but in real life, everyday. Weather deniers everywhere on this blog.


I'm a weather denier because I want evidence of a claim?
Quoting 288. Pallis:
Sorry man, but here on the mainland it is like that movie armed and dangerous with John Candy, but in real life, everyday. Weather deniers everywhere on this blog.


I hear you, I try not to get caught up in it, just present the facts as I know them, people are free to choose to believe them or not it's no skin off my back as I have no agenda although with that said I would prefer that the sea level doesn't rise by 100' over the next century, just saying
Quoting 286. BahaHurican:
Just for contrast, here is what it looked like today in Nassau.



I don't think I would feel comfortable in a house this close to the water [and I definitely don't want to pay the homeowner's insurance on it], but can you understand how people can get so complacent?

With weather like today down here it's easy to get complacent.


Here's complacent.. warning, there is some cursing in this one. Suppose it could be necessary to save your comrade transfixed by the tornado.. Another from today in Washington, Ill.

A tad close..



SEL2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 572
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MARYLAND PANHANDLE
NORTHWEST VIRGINIA
THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 1130 PM
UNTIL 400 AM EST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF MARTINSBURG WEST VIRGINIA TO 10 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST
OF STAUNTON VIRGINIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 568...WW 569...WW
570...WW 571...

DISCUSSION...A LOW-TOPPED LINE OF CONVECTION STILL APPEARS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS WHILE IT PROGRESSES EWD
TOWARD NW VA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...GIVEN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL
FLOW IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 300. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27040.


...THOMPSON
Quoting 280. Tazmanian:



AL, 98, 2013111800, , BEST, 0, 266N, 527W, 40, 1001, LO,


its there you this need too look harder

This is what I found on the NHC:
AL, 98, 2013111800, , BEST, 0, 266N, 527W, 35, 1001, LO, 34, NEQ, 200, 0, 0, 200, 1008, 400, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

and Computer Hurricane Guidance:
914
WHXX01 KWBC 180041
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0041 UTC MON NOV 18 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982013) 20131118 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
131118 0000 131118 1200 131119 0000 131119 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.6N 52.7W 28.2N 52.5W 31.0N 53.0W 33.3N 54.7W
BAMD 26.6N 52.7W 29.6N 53.7W 31.1N 55.9W 31.2N 57.1W
BAMM 26.6N 52.7W 28.9N 53.1W 31.0N 54.6W 32.0N 56.2W
LBAR 26.6N 52.7W 29.0N 52.7W 31.7N 53.3W 34.4N 53.3W
SHIP 35KTS 45KTS 57KTS 65KTS
DSHP 35KTS 45KTS 57KTS 65KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
131120 0000 131121 0000 131122 0000 131123 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 34.4N 54.9W 34.9N 46.6W 36.6N 34.7W 39.0N 27.6W
BAMD 31.4N 55.1W 36.1N 45.0W 43.0N 31.7W 51.1N 27.4W
BAMM 32.4N 54.9W 35.5N 45.0W 40.0N 31.1W 44.0N 24.6W
LBAR 38.0N 51.5W 45.7N 41.8W 46.7N 30.6W 0.0N 0.0W
SHIP 70KTS 79KTS 74KTS 56KTS
DSHP 70KTS 79KTS 74KTS 56KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.6N LONCUR = 52.7W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 25.1N LONM12 = 52.9W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 23.8N LONM24 = 52.3W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1001MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 400NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 200NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 200NM

$$
NNNN

Where did you find it?
Some personal good news .... several hours ago my parents in Dayton Ohio with sirens screaming are ok (very sorry to hear about people in Kokomo).

Also an amateur astronomer buddy of some note (Christopher Go) living in Cebu City Philippines I recently heard from and he is ok - the center of the hurricane passed 50 miles to the north as he said and said that he and his family are ok.

Chris discovered "red spot jr" on Jupiter several years ago.

Here is his web site

Link
Quoting 283. Dakster:


I had a uncle that drank a gallon of moonshine a day. We kept telling him it was going to kill him. It finally did, at 102...

When I go, I want to die peacefully in my sleep like my grandfather did, unlike the people riding in his car at the time.


My place in hell is reserved for laughing at that last bit :')
Down to 995 millibars.

AL, 98, 2013111806, , BEST, 0, 278N, 527W, 40, 995, LO, 34, NEQ, 200, 0, 0, 240, 1006, 425, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Quoting 300. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Down to 995 millibars.

AL, 98, 2013111806, , BEST, 0, 278N, 527W, 40, 995, LO, 34, NEQ, 200, 0, 0, 240, 1006, 425, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,


I think this has good odds of becoming our deepest tropical/subtropical system of the year.
98L is becoming better organized. Banding is still not particularly well-defined, but there is evidence of a very gradual cyclonic wrapping of the thunderstorms in the direction of the surface low. A recent ASCAT pass suggests that the radius of maximum winds has decreased compared to yesterday:



However, notice the large latitudinal stretch of opposing winds on either side of the circulation; this suggests that the low is still decidedly non-tropical. In addition, satellite imagery, in combination with the ASCAT data, insinuates that the system is still embedded within a very broad cyclonic circulation encompassing much of the central Atlantic. Given the still notable radius of maximum winds (albeit contracting), marginal water temperatures, and the cyclonic circulation in which the system is embedded, initial development will likely be subtropical. However, remember that the typical sea surface temperature/convection relationship is not inherently applicable to tropical cyclones embedded in subtropical latitudes over cool waters; this is because the temperature gradient between the surface and the upper troposphere tends to be extremely steep this time of year. In these instances, tropical cyclones forming developing from baroclinic sources are never really truly tropical, with fairly shallow warm cores (and thus convection), so the primary impetus for intensification of such storms to hurricane strength over sub-26C SSTs appears primarily due to vertical temperature gradients, not 100% latent heat release.
Quoting 297. Bobbyweather:

This is what I found on the NHC:
AL, 98, 2013111800, , BEST, 0, 266N, 527W, 35, 1001, LO, 34, NEQ, 200, 0, 0, 200, 1008, 400, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

and Computer Hurricane Guidance:
914
WHXX01 KWBC 180041
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0041 UTC MON NOV 18 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982013) 20131118 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
131118 0000 131118 1200 131119 0000 131119 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.6N 52.7W 28.2N 52.5W 31.0N 53.0W 33.3N 54.7W
BAMD 26.6N 52.7W 29.6N 53.7W 31.1N 55.9W 31.2N 57.1W
BAMM 26.6N 52.7W 28.9N 53.1W 31.0N 54.6W 32.0N 56.2W
LBAR 26.6N 52.7W 29.0N 52.7W 31.7N 53.3W 34.4N 53.3W
SHIP 35KTS 45KTS 57KTS 65KTS
DSHP 35KTS 45KTS 57KTS 65KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
131120 0000 131121 0000 131122 0000 131123 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 34.4N 54.9W 34.9N 46.6W 36.6N 34.7W 39.0N 27.6W
BAMD 31.4N 55.1W 36.1N 45.0W 43.0N 31.7W 51.1N 27.4W
BAMM 32.4N 54.9W 35.5N 45.0W 40.0N 31.1W 44.0N 24.6W
LBAR 38.0N 51.5W 45.7N 41.8W 46.7N 30.6W 0.0N 0.0W
SHIP 70KTS 79KTS 74KTS 56KTS
DSHP 70KTS 79KTS 74KTS 56KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.6N LONCUR = 52.7W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 25.1N LONM12 = 52.9W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 23.8N LONM24 = 52.3W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1001MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 400NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 200NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 200NM

$$
NNNN

Where did you find it?


here

Link
Quoting 299. KalainH:


My place in hell is reserved for laughing at that last bit :')


Me too... But look at this way, at least we will have plenty of company.
Quoting 301. BaltimoreBrian:


I think this has good odds of becoming our deepest tropical/subtropical system of the year.


This season is stupid.

Enough said.
Quoting 304. Dakster:


Me too... But look at this way, at least we will have plenty of company.


Every single troll this blog has ever banned? Nice company.
Quoting 305. wxgeek723:


This season is stupid.


I reaffirmed that at work [even if Melissa formed] to the one guy who actually likes to talk about this stuff with me. He didn't deny.
Quoting 304. Dakster:


Me too... But look at this way, at least we will have plenty of company.


You all know how evil I am. ;)
Astro - No, there is a SPECIAL place in hell for them.

Is chat working? I can't get in - it freezes at connecting to server.
500+ reports, wow.



Remaining watches:

Fresh OSCAT of 98L

Quoting 302. KoritheMan:
98L is becoming better organized. Banding is still not particularly well-defined, but there is evidence of a very gradual cyclonic wrapping of the thunderstorms in the direction of the surface low. A recent ASCAT pass suggests that the radius of maximum winds has decreased compared to yesterday:



However, notice the large latitudinal stretch of opposing winds on either side of the circulation; this suggests that the low is still decidedly non-tropical. In addition, satellite imagery, in combination with the ASCAT data, insinuates that the system is still embedded within a very broad cyclonic circulation encompassing much of the central Atlantic. Given the still notable radius of maximum winds (albeit contracting), marginal water temperatures, and the cyclonic circulation in which the system is embedded, initial development will likely be subtropical. However, remember that the typical sea surface temperature/convection relationship is not inherently applicable to tropical cyclones embedded in subtropical latitudes over cool waters; this is because the temperature gradient between the surface and the upper troposphere tends to be extremely steep this time of year. In these instances, tropical cyclones forming developing from baroclinic sources are never really truly tropical, with fairly shallow warm cores (and thus convection), so the primary impetus for intensification of such storms to hurricane strength over sub-26C SSTs appears primarily due to vertical temperature gradients, not 100% latent heat release.

Quoting 310. Astrometeor:
500+ reports, wow.



Remaining watches:



Even if they're to be revised (which they will be after a more collective data sample is compiled), we're still talking about a very significant severe weather event occurring at an unusual location at an unusual time of year.
Quoting 309. Dakster:
Astro - No, there is a SPECIAL place in hell for them.

Is chat working? I can't get in - it freezes at connecting to server.


Good, I don't want to have to deal with those people...

I haven't been able to get in either...Adobe gives me a security warning and then denies me a connection. I already commented that on WunderYakuza's blog.
Quoting 312. TropicalAnalystwx13:



I thought about Epsilon, but I suppose sexy little Chris will suffice too.
Quoting 315. Astrometeor:


Good, I don't want to have to deal with those people...

I haven't been able to get in either...Adobe gives me a security warning and then denies me a connection. I already commented that on WunderYakuza's blog.


Yep...

And Thanks.

BTW, Hell must have frozen over, since the Dolphins won today. I need to remember my jacket now.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST MON NOV 18 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
SATELLITE AND SHIP DATA INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING GALE
FORCE WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE
FOR THE LOW TO ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD. AFTER THAT TIME...CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS....AND A HIGH CHANCE...
70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
chat was taken out by the blog fail today

its frozen with the names of members there at the time the blogs went down

chat worked for about 15 mins or so then it failed or got turned off one of the two


seems its to be down for a bit maybe till tomorrow when its a regular day

lucky its even working and yak could be around to patch it back up
Quoting 319. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
chat was taken out by the blog fail today

its frozen with the names of members there at the time the blogs went down

chat worked for about 15 mins or so then it failed or got turned off one of the two


seems its to be down for a bit maybe till tomorrow when its a regular day

lucky its even working and yak good be around to patch it back up


thanks KOTG...

I figured there was no way that many people were in chat at midnight on a Sunday.
06Z ATCF already out, 40 kt 995 mb

237
WHXX01 KWBC 180446
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0446 UTC MON NOV 18 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982013) 20131118 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
131118 0600 131118 1800 131119 0600 131119 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.8N 52.7W 29.3N 53.0W 31.3N 54.0W 32.7N 54.7W
BAMD 27.8N 52.7W 30.6N 54.1W 31.5N 56.4W 30.9N 56.4W
BAMM 27.8N 52.7W 30.1N 53.4W 31.7N 55.1W 32.2N 55.6W
LBAR 27.8N 52.7W 30.4N 52.7W 33.1N 53.1W 36.0N 52.6W
SHIP 40KTS 50KTS 60KTS 65KTS
DSHP 40KTS 50KTS 60KTS 65KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
131120 0600 131121 0600 131122 0600 131123 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 33.2N 53.0W 33.0N 44.3W 33.9N 34.5W 34.9N 26.7W
BAMD 30.9N 53.3W 33.6N 43.3W 39.3N 29.0W 41.3N 18.6W
BAMM 32.3N 53.2W 33.6N 43.5W 37.0N 30.9W 39.6N 21.5W
LBAR 40.0N 50.7W 47.0N 38.5W 47.5N 29.5W 37.0N 24.4W
SHIP 69KTS 77KTS 71KTS 67KTS
DSHP 69KTS 77KTS 71KTS 67KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.8N LONCUR = 52.7W DIRCUR = 5DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 25.8N LONM12 = 52.8W DIRM12 = 7DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 24.4N LONM24 = 52.8W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 995MB OUTPRS = 1006MB OUTRAD = 425NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 200NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 240NM

$$
NNNN
end of the season out to sea system seems likely now
98L/INV/XX
chat box is working
Quoting 299. KalainH:


My place in hell is reserved for laughing at that last bit :')
LOL... the Daxter does have that effect....

Welcome to the blog.
Events like today always make me wonder why so many people still consider weather modification as valid or credible. If we can't even stop a severe weather outbreak from occurring (you could argue that the spatial distribution/location specific orientation of the storm reports during such events spare more localized areas from devastation as a direct result of the technology, but Occam's Razor demands that that is reaching), what makes everyone (including me at one time, sadly) assume that weather modification technology suffices as a legitimate explanation for the relative tropical cyclone landfall dearth the United States has been experiencing ever since 2009?
Quoting 316. KoritheMan:


I thought about Epsilon, but I suppose sexy little Chris will suffice too.


And people think I'm kidding when I describe to them what WU members do when we get a decent hurricane to track.
Vietnam keeps getting hit too.

Flood in Vietnam on Sunday, 17 November, 2013 at 06:19 (06:19 AM) UTC.
Description
Flooding in Vietnam has killed at least 28 people since Friday, with nine others missing and nearly 80,000 displaced, state media and government reports said, after a tropical depression dumped heavy rains across central regions of the country. In Quang Ngai province, where nine were killed and four people are missing, flood waters rose above a previous peak measured in 1999, submerging many houses, the official Thanh Nien (Young People) newspaper reported on Sunday. Flood waters rose quickly after 15 hydro power plants in the central region opened their sluice gates to release water in reservoir protection, the newspaper reported. Around 100,000 houses were submerged and nearly 80,000 people have been evacuated, the government-run committee on floods and storm protection said in a report. Roads have been closed due to floods and some national train services canceled. The central region, incorporating the Central Highlands coffee belt, often suffers from floods and storms between July and October. Rain since Friday disrupted the coffee harvest and bean drying in central highland provinces, thus delaying the bean flow to sea ports. Vietnam is the world's top robusta producer, accounting for around 17 percent of the world's output. More rain was forecast in the coffee-growing region on Sunday, state forecasters said.
Quoting 301. BaltimoreBrian:


I think this has good odds of becoming our deepest tropical/subtropical system of the year.
... not that it'd be that difficult to get this spot...
Quoting 323. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
98L/INV/XX
Slowly coalescing. Maybe named by Tuesday?

Quoting 324. jamesrainier:
Looks like whatever the South gets of this system will be overnight... next 6 hrs or so.
here we go.
Quoting 329. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Uhh?


Thats been there all day, even has a floater!



possible disturbance that tracks towards India by November 24th as a tropical cyclone?



Warning issued by JMA

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
9:00 AM JST November 18 2013
===================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 5.0N 113.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Quoting 333. VAbeachhurricanes:


Thats been there all day, even has a floater!




May have been a tropical depression earlier when it was sustaining convection. It's still bursting tonight.

I emailed the NHC about it.

Quoting 334. HadesGodWyvern:
possible disturbance that tracks towards India by November 24th as a tropical cyclone?



Warning issued by JMA

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
9:00 AM JST November 18 2013
===================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 5.0N 113.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.



To my immediate periphery of vision, I would assume the large size of the circulation would prevent rapid intensification even after the system consolidates.

But, like I said, just from a cursory glance.
Quoting 335. TropicalAnalystwx13:

May have been a tropical depression earlier when it was sustaining convection. It's still bursting tonight.


Not with that kind of wind:

Quoting 293. Skyepony:

With weather like today down here it's easy to get complacent.


Here's complacent.. warning, there is some cursing in this one. Suppose it could be necessary to save your comrade transfixed by the tornado.. Another from today in Washington, Ill.




This is some particularly scary footage, has a doom feel to it, maybe its because the tornado is tracked from its earliest stages, temporarily looks as though it will miss, only to make a direct course towards the filmer's location.
Quoting 337. KoritheMan:


Not with that kind of wind:


There is no wind criteria for a tropical depression. Winds were probably stronger this morning when the storm was firing deep convection.



Radar is picking up on ~15kt right now:

Quoting 335. TropicalAnalystwx13:

May have been a tropical depression earlier when it was sustaining convection. It's still bursting tonight.

I emailed the NHC about it.




cool went me no what the nhc say in the email if they email you back
Quoting 342. Tazmanian:



cool went me no what the nhc say in the email if they email you back


Yeah Cody, I wanna see it too.
Quoting 339. TropicalAnalystwx13:

There is no wind criteria for a tropical depression. Winds were probably stronger this morning when the storm was firing deep convection.



Radar is picking up on ~15kt right now:


How can this be real? If that was a TD it could break the record for smallest storm.
Also, 98L looking amazing...
Of course this happens the week after I give up on the season!
The NHC is identifying it as a small surface trough on their surface map. Unfortunately, westerly shear is forecast to increase markedly over the ensuing 24 hours, likely getting up to at least 30 kt, and quite possibly a little bit above that value.

I'd love to see it develop though, just due to the time of year and the location.
Quoting 343. KoritheMan:


Yeah Cody, I wanna see it too.


Cody, if you're still up, you might as well make a blog post of it so we can all see the response.
Quoting 329. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Uhh?


I was keeping an eye on this for like the past 72 hours. So Friday night, it was a 1009MB upper level low with exactly the same banding there is now but it was directly south of Barbados and east of Tobago. Then on Saturday, the NHC 105PM EST Tropical Weather Discussion said it this particular low should move westward over Trinidad and Tobago producing near gale force winds and showers. It looked pretty impressive on the Barbados Doppler Radar for such a late season low this south. Instead however, it remained stationary and today, it began moving eastward back into the Atlantic without affecting any land. My thoughts were that the frontal boundary associated with 98L intensified more south than anticipated and interacted with the surface trough/upper level low pushing it eastward instead of westward but that's just me using the limited knowledge I've got about this whole tropical weather thing.

Link
Quoting 335. TropicalAnalystwx13:

May have been a tropical depression earlier when it was sustaining convection. It's still bursting tonight.

I emailed the NHC about it.



Its been bustling since Friday, just no one has taken notice and I would have posted about it but I only joined the blog today!
If you don't mind my asking, Kalain, where r u posting from?
Quoting 339. TropicalAnalystwx13:

There is no wind criteria for a tropical depression. Winds were probably stronger this morning when the storm was firing deep convection.



Radar is picking up on ~15kt right now:



Since I've been keeping an eye on it, the strongest I've seen it was 22 kts and that was about 10AM CST
Quoting 350. BahaHurican:
If you don't mind my asking, Kalain, where r u posting from?


I'm from Trinidad and Tobago originally and I co-run a FB Weather page for Trinidad and Tobago but I currently live in Houston, Texas.
Quoting 352. KalainH:


I'm from Trinidad and Tobago originally and I co-run a FB Weather page for Trinidad and Tobago but I currently live in Houston, Texas.
Kewl... nice to have another "Trini" on the blog, even if a transported one.... It helps keep the Caribbean posse going .... :o)
Quoting 352. KalainH:


I'm from Trinidad and Tobago originally and I co-run a FB Weather page for Trinidad and Tobago but I currently live in Houston, Texas.


My assistant manager (who oddly isn't much older than me) is from Trinidad. Since you probably don't know, I'm 22 and I live in Louisiana.

Good to meetcha.


Should have a (sub?)tropical storm later today.
Good Morning:

98L is firing up more convection near its center, and is also gradually looking more impressive!

If we get Subtropical or Tropical Storm Melissa form out this system, it will become our 13th named Atlantic storm of the season. This will also confirm that although the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season has been slow, we are still keeping up with the cycle of increased average number of named storms! This trend began in 1995, and is still continuing.....

The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season is not over yet!

Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 66 degrees and the humidity's going back up, 97%.

My thoughts and prayers to all involved in the tornados in Il. From the pictures I've seen it was really bad. So far six deaths.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: bacon and grill cheese sandwich, baked egg in an avocado with and without crumbled bacon, egg and sausage casserole, Belgian waffles with strawberries or powdered sugar, Egg, Cheese and chorizo Quesadillas, Andouille sausage and shrimp over cheesy grits, cinnamon streusel coffee cake, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
Quoting 359. aislinnpaps:
Breakfast's on the sideboard: bacon and grill cheese sandwich, baked egg in an avocado with and without crumbled bacon, egg and sausage casserole, Belgian waffles with strawberries or powdered sugar, Egg, Cheese and chorizo Quesadillas, Andouille sausage and shrimp over cheesy grits, cinnamon streusel coffee cake, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!


looks like a full course enjoy
361. SLU
Quoting 335. TropicalAnalystwx13:

May have been a tropical depression earlier when it was sustaining convection. It's still bursting tonight.

I emailed the NHC about it.



If it was, it rivals Marco for one of the smallest tropical cyclones ever. I've certainly never seen such a small-scale system of any strength near the islands before.

Quoting 361. SLU:


If it was, it rivals Marco for one of the smallest tropical cyclones ever. I've certainly never seen such a small-scale system of any strength near the islands before.



Good morning. The strange 2013 continues to have events that never had occurred before. Being mid November is very odd to have something spinning just east of the islands.
363. SLU
Quoting 362. Tropicsweatherpr:


Good morning. The strange 2013 continues to have events that never had occurred before. Being mid November is very odd to have something spinning just east of the islands.


Yes and it was remarkably well defined. The low looked even better than Chantal at times.
98L up to 90%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST MON NOV 18 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
INCREASED AND BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER
OF A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...LOCATED ABOUT 740 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. SATELLITE AND SHIP DATA INDICATE THAT
THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL STORM TO FORM LATER TODAY OR ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS....AND A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Quoting 364. Civicane49:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST MON NOV 18 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
INCREASED AND BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER
OF A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...LOCATED ABOUT 740 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. SATELLITE AND SHIP DATA INDICATE THAT
THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL STORM TO FORM LATER TODAY OR ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS....AND A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Is a matter of time that Melissa is here.
Quoting 364. Civicane49:
98L up to 90%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST MON NOV 18 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
INCREASED AND BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER
OF A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...LOCATED ABOUT 740 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. SATELLITE AND SHIP DATA INDICATE THAT
THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL STORM TO FORM LATER TODAY OR ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS....AND A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


FORECASTER STEWART, lol, of course. Now the question, tropical or subtropical.
367. beell
Quoting 356. KoritheMan:


Should have a (sub?)tropical storm later today.


Kinda looks that way (sub). Still a little bit of a tilt back into cooler air based on 500-1000 mb thickness gradient. But perhaps some improvement noted in the AMSU cross section.



AMSU Cross Section-Valid 11/18 0508Z


AMSU Cross Section-Valid 11/18 0715Z


11/18 00Z GFS 500-1000 mb Thickness

368. SLU
Quoting 365. Tropicsweatherpr:


Is a matter of time that Melissa is here.


Non-tropical lows don't tend to develop that fast. They can take days to take shape but this one has progressed rather quickly ... mainly because of this persistent warm water all season long in the CATL.

98L might become a weak hurricane if it gets its act together quickly its winds are already 40 knots.
nice surf outback e cen florida a rare morning of recent
Quoting 361. SLU:


If it was, it rivals Marco for one of the smallest tropical cyclones ever. I've certainly never seen such a small-scale system of any strength near the islands before.

Before the blog went down yesterday I suggested that it may have been a brief tropical depression before shear came and blasted it.It's still going on right now so it may have been one.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST MON NOV 18 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
INCREASED AND BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER
OF A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...LOCATED ABOUT 740 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. SATELLITE AND SHIP DATA INDICATE THAT
THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL STORM TO FORM LATER TODAY OR ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS....AND A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

FORECASTER STEWART

This might fail..
I see that the convection is slowly wrapping around the center. I think this will be Melissa (whether it be tropical or subtropical) by the end of the day.
Estimating land-falling TC velocities

Hi all.

New to this blog and have a question. I was recently reading about Dvorak estimates and was struck that our system of indirect wind velocity estimation has not improved since the 1980s.

My question is simple: why can't we infer wind-speed from the radar loops of land-falling hurricanes? Even to the naked eye it is easy to see the difference between a tropical storm and cat 2 hurricane, and easy to see them spin down after landfall. The eye is looking at specific cells of more intense rains as they rotate around the core, and "filling in the blanks" to ascribe an overall circulation. Surely pattern-recognition software could be developed that could do the same. And once we know the speed these cells are moving, we also altitude the radar beam is crossing at any point, so it should be easy to infer surface speed, or at the very least, parameterize any error based on back-testing with radar loops of storms of known velocities.

The method is more difficult for the strongest storms, as the movement from frame to frame is the greatest. The eye struggles to determine the movement. But I would bet that an algorithm could still be developed for a computer to do this with some accuracy.

I did a couple of searches and did not see anyone researching this. But I could very easily have missed this.

It seems like we do have a pretty good loop for Haiyan. So maybe someday we will have a better estimate of wind-speed?

The same approach might also work for satellite loops...although Haiyan on satellite was so uniform that it might be hard to find enough anomalies to get any sense of how they move between frames?
Looks like a cold, rainy Thanksgiving week ahead for most of the US.



I really thought Cane season was over.

379. VR46L
Hmmm

I see lots of Dry air!!!



Never mind , its Extropical shape ....a COMMA

Quoting 376. StormWx:
Looks like a cold, rainy Thanksgiving week ahead for most of the US.



The GFS has been consistent with this..
Good morning, and no (!), below this is not a recent or real sat pic of Europe. It's only that BBC wants to provide a feeling for Europeans what the extent of Haiyan was like. Well, if something like this would happen, little would be left in the Netherlands ...

How Super Typhoon Haiyan would stretch if placed over Northern Europe

Quoting 367. beell:


Kinda looks that way (sub). Still a little bit of a tilt back into cooler air based on 500-1000 mb thickness gradient. But perhaps some improvement noted in the AMSU cross section.



AMSU Cross Section-Valid 11/18 0508Z


AMSU Cross Section-Valid 11/18 0715Z


11/18 00Z GFS 500-1000 mb Thickness

Its covering a large area.
G'morn wunderland

70F and Storms in NOLA.

We are getting strong winds in my area, some gusts clearly TS-force, due to the pressure gradients at the back of the low pressure system that tracked through yesterday and caused the storms in Illinois.
AL, 98, 2013111812, 01, CARQ, 0, 290N, 533W, 45, 988, LO, 64, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 425, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, X, 335, 11, INVEST, M ,
Morning All..
I'm just going to take a moment and post my feelings on the situation yesterday..
Weather wise..
After reviewing photos and reports from known sources..
And taking time to check updates..
I have to say I agree with those of the "Land Caine" opinion/evaluation..
This opinion is from what I personally have been through At my place in the world..
Not to be-little ANY storm..
But this brought to mind the Hurricaine Ivan experience..
Once again..
119 tornado's that were fast moving and short to medium duration..
Longest was reported to be 11 miles..
Have never been able to vairify that figure however..
( I have a blog post Here if one is so inclined to read it)
(Please note: This isn't about pushing my blog)

If there were ever a case to name a storm..
Yesterday was one..
I believe that..
And I'm one not for the idea that much..
But possibly,just possibly..
Those who perished may have been spared..
I think Dr. Forbes did all he could short of that..
Sending out thanks to NWS..SPC..TWC..Dr. Forbes
And WU for trying to deal with an un-timely IT failure..
Take a bow WU..
You deserve it..


I know I for one take for granted the dependability here at WU..
Hats off to ALL the bloggers who stayed the course with Tweets and social postings..
A great example of folks who care..
We are the best at sharing and informing..
It's what we do..

I cannot express in words of the destruction of yesterday..
Other than a Gods speed and recovery for so many..
Including those Not directly affected..
Extended families..
First responders..
Police and firefighters..
Hospitals..
And those whom are in the shadows..

Thats all for me..
Will hang and post for awhile this am..
Pcola57..



Haiyan had the most impressive MIMIC signature I have ever seen.
People have to become aware, as the watches were posted in due time and alerts/warnings were timely.

Sometimes the Storms are jus too powerful and if your die is up, well..best have a plan of action and a safe place to go.

Even the best chasers/researcher's are lost to the Big ones, as we saw so sadly with the Reno Storm.
Weird weather extremes in the countries of the southern part of Africa.



South Africa: 18 000 People Affected By Floods in Cape Town
17 November 2013

Namibia: Drought Devastates Epukiro Farmers
By Kuzeeko Tjitemisa, 14 November 2013
morning everyone

==weather event discussion==

A major low pressure system tracking through Northeastern Ontario
early this morning affected much of Southern Ontario with showers,
thunderstorms and gusty winds. Wind warnings are continued for
portions of Southern Ontario this morning.

In addition, several power outages were reported across the area due
to the high winds.

Below are maximum wind gusts associated with the storm system as of
4 AM EST Monday.

Location wind gust (in kilometers per hour)
Windsor 82
Sarnia 83
Wiarton 85
London 82
Cove Island 95
Long Point 100
Port Colborne 106
Toronto Pearson 83
Toronto Island 87
Elora 89




This weather summary contains preliminary information and may not
constitute an official or final report.

END/OSPC


Quoting 388. Patrap:
People have to become aware, as the watches were posted in due time and alerts/warnings were timely.

Sometimes the Storms are jus too powerful and if your die is up, well..best have a plan of action and a safe place to go.

Even the best chasers/researcher's are lost to the Big ones, as we saw so sadly with the Reno Storm.


Morning Pat..
That was very sad..

One comment though..
Not everyone is weather savvy as we are..
My elderly mom for one..

So many of the elderly just "turn on the TV"
Without any purpose and off to "movie land " they go..
Alerts are great for those whom are more aware than others..

DMSP SSMIS 85 GHz microwave brightness temperature image. From CIMMS.

This shows the extent of power outages caused by Haiyan..
courtesy of William Straka, SSEC/CIMSS)
Quoting 391. pcola57:


Morning Pat..
That was very sad..

One comment though..
Not everyone is weather savvy as we are..
My elderly mom for one..

So many of the elderly just "turn on the TV"
Without any purpose and off to "movie land " they go..
Alerts are great for those whom are more aware than others..


Purchase her a NOAA Weather Alert Radio with Battery Back up and she will hear or See it if she is Hearing impaired.

Those models are available as well.

No one should be without a TONE APP for their phone too.

Every home should have at least one weather alert radio.

Midland WR-100

Walgreens, Radio Shack

$29.99 or less.









Quoting 376. StormWx:
Looks like a cold, rainy Thanksgiving week ahead for most of the US.



This is awesome.I've said for the last couple of days that the pattern has reminded me of Spring.Where is winter?.This morning when I walked outside it was 56 degrees.A morning I would expect in April.
Quoting 378. FunnelVortex:
I really thought Cane season was over.



Told ya it would form, diddn't I? you don't get that much model agreement so close to the time it is supposed to form just for nothing to happen. ;)


It looks great for a November system!
Quoting 393. Patrap:


Purchase her a NOAA Weather Alert Radio with Battery Back up and she will hear or See it if she is Hearing impaired.

Those models are available as well.

No one should be without a TONE APP for their phone as well.

Every home should have at least one weather alert radio.

Midland WR-100

$29.99



Thank you for that..
Possibly may motivate others to make the decision to Aquire the radios..
My thinking is in line with the frail/infirm..
We have the set-up here..
I still have to motivate her to action however..
pcola57 I kinda of saw this coming.I've noticed that when something bad happens on one side of the world a few days or two weeks later it happens on another side of the world.I'm to lazy to type my full theory but I've noticed that.I've also noticed a pattern in terms of storms in the Atlantic.I'll go into further detail later on.
Quoting 397. washingtonian115:
pcola57 I kinda of saw this coming.I've noticed that when something bad happens on one side of the world a few days or two weeks later it happens on another side of the world.I'm to lazy to type my full theory but I've noticed that.I've also noticed a pattern in terms of storms in the Atlantic.I'll go into further detail later on.


Please do Washi..
I for one will give it a read.. :)
399. VR46L
Quoting 395. Torito:


Told ya it would form, diddn't I? you don't get that much model agreement so close to the time it is supposed to form just for nothing to happen. ;)


It looks great for a November system!


Yeah is a great Extrop system .... needs to get rid of them fronts ;)



Quoting 397. washingtonian115:
pcola57 I kinda of saw this coming.I've noticed that when something bad happens on one side of the world a few days or two weeks later it happens on another side of the world.I'm to lazy to type my full theory but I've noticed that.I've also noticed a pattern in terms of storms in the Atlantic.I'll go into further detail later on.


I believe it has something to do with teleconnections..
Hammer down rain earlier..
Very localized..
NAS reporting 0.08" at this hour..
I know we got at least 2" this am..


Quoting 400. ncstorm:


I believe it has something to do with teleconnections..
I can't wait to explain why 2014 (If it's not a full blown El nino year) might throw some curve balls at us in the western Atlantic.Well come to think about it..even if it is Modoki El nino that would still not impede tropical development in the Atlantic.
NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards

NOAA, u know, the folks who bring you Climate change data too.
Morning.   Came on yesterday in the afternoon during the outbreak and the site was down for IT.....It was rather unnerving to see all of the tornadoes in progress on the doppler loops and to not to be able to share the concerns with the Blog.

Prayers and condolences to all in the Mid-West; two destructive weather events in recent weeks, this outbreak and Haiyan, underscore the fact the Mother Nature knows no geo-political boundry.  Also underscores how much better our own warning and rescue, aid, and recovery resources are in the US.  I am sure that all available resources will be engaged to help folks in the Midwest.

Dr. M will be on later this am with a breakdown of the causes of the severe tornadoes and the aftermath and I am sure that he will address the fact that we did the best that we could, in terms of the warnings from SPC, which unfortunately came to pass.  In spite of the outlooks and warnings, a sudden tornado touchdown provides the least potential lead time perhaps than many natural disasters with the exception of a sudden earthquake or related tsunami in quick succession.    
It looks a lot like Andrea....... Starting and ending the season on the same note, I guess. =P

The ATCF says it's a subtropical storm, surprising absolutely no one:

invest_RENUMBER_al982013_al142013.ren

AL, 14, 2013111812, , BEST, 0, 290N, 533W, 45, 988, SS, 34, NEQ, 200, 0, 90, 240, 1006, 425, 90, 55, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
It is 59 degrees out already this morning.......

I'm going to consider this "Fall's last gasp".
Link
Quoting 407. Neapolitan:
AL, 14, 2013111812, , BEST, 0, 290N, 533W, 45, 988, SS, 34, NEQ, 200, 0, 90, 240, 1006, 425, 90, 55, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,


Subtropical storm?

Edit: ok, I see now.
It's about time... It's strange to see an invest with 50-55mph sustained winds....
Models are confused.

Sweet Melissa


AL, 14, 2013111812, , BEST, 0, 290N, 533W, 45, 988, SS
417. SLU
Quoting 371. washingtonian115:
Before the blog went down yesterday I suggested that it may have been a brief tropical depression before shear came and blasted it.It's still going on right now so it may have been one.


Fair statement.
418. VR46L
Quoting 411. Torito:
Models are confused.



I Guess the Arctic High that is Coming down prevents this one going where they usually do :)

Still don't get how a frontal system can be deemed Sub tropical *shrug*
Quoting 413. Torito:


The intensity models were more wide spread yesterday as Skye pointed out..
The forecast tracks however look rather good in agreement actually..
I go with 5 days outlook..
Quoting 418. VR46L:


I Guess the Arctic High that is Coming down prevents this one going where they usually do :)

Still don't get how a frontal system can be deemed Sub tropical *shrug*



Meh. The NHC is just bored of having nothing to do for months straight. ;)
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
1500 UTC MON NOV 18 2013

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 53.6W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......200NE 0SE 90SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE 400SE 400SW 400NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
Quoting 422. nrtiwlnvragn:
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
1500 UTC MON NOV 18 2013

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 53.6W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......200NE 0SE 90SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE 400SE 400SW 400NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.


See, NHC being pronto with their first system in weeks.... ;)
425. VR46L
Quoting 421. Torito:



Meh. The NHC is just bored of having nothing to do for months straight. ;)


Looks like Padding to me :)

LMAO
Wind swaths of subtropical systems look cool. :)


Link
Quoting 375. DanBlum:
Estimating land-falling TC velocities

Hi all.

New to this blog and have a question. I was recently reading about Dvorak estimates and was struck that our system of indirect wind velocity estimation has not improved since the 1980s.

My question is simple: why can't we infer wind-speed from the radar loops of land-falling hurricanes? Even to the naked eye it is easy to see the difference between a tropical storm and cat 2 hurricane, and easy to see them spin down after landfall. The eye is looking at specific cells of more intense rains as they rotate around the core, and "filling in the blanks" to ascribe an overall circulation. Surely pattern-recognition software could be developed that could do the same. And once we know the speed these cells are moving, we also altitude the radar beam is crossing at any point, so it should be easy to infer surface speed, or at the very least, parameterize any error based on back-testing with radar loops of storms of known velocities.

The method is more difficult for the strongest storms, as the movement from frame to frame is the greatest. The eye struggles to determine the movement. But I would bet that an algorithm could still be developed for a computer to do this with some accuracy.

I did a couple of searches and did not see anyone researching this.

Dan,

Sometimes scientists do try to infer winds in tropical cyclones using the method you suggest above. Have you read the paper detailing why Hurricane Andrew was changed to a category 5 after reanalysis? One of the lines of evidence came from tracking individual eyewall features as they rotated around the eye, then estimating the height of those features and making the necessary wind adjustments. If the radar system is doppler, one can also use the velocity data for wind going directly up/down radial for an estimate.
To my knowledge, these techniques are used in combination with other techniques and not by themselves.

Landsea et al. (2004):
Radar-derived wind vectors.
Low-altitude radar feature tracking presented by P. Dodge to the committee suggested surface winds similar to those implied by applying a 90% adjustment factor to the flight-level data.
...This technique has been demonstrated to provide lower-tropospheric wind vectors in the circulation of a hurricane that are comparable to those measured by aircraft. Tuttle and Gall (1999) reported agreement with 700-mb flight-level winds to within 10%, though the radar-derived winds have a relatively noisy signal and must be quality controlled before use.


In Landsea et al. (2004), they reference the following papers in regards to the radar tracking:
Tuttle and Gall (1999)
union and Powell (2002)
...SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 53.6W
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.6 WEST. THE
STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SLOW TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL STORM BY
TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445
KM...MAINLY NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND MELISSA
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE SWELLS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
DANGEROUS SWELLS GENERATED BY MELISSA ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THESE
AREAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS
429. VR46L
Quoting 426. Torito:



Wind swaths of subtropical systems look cool. :)


Just like your avi looks cool ... great comma shape but thats an Extropical storm...
14L/STS/M/XX
Quoting 427. ScottLincoln:
This technique has been demonstrated to provide lower-tropospheric wind vectors in the circulation of a hurricane that are comparable to those measured by aircraft. Tuttle and Gall (1999) reported agreement with 700-mb flight-level winds to within 10%, though the radar-derived winds have a relatively noisy signal and must be quality controlled before use.In Landsea et al. (2004), they reference the following papers in regards to the radar tracking:
Tuttle and Gall (1999)
union and Powell (2002)


Thanks for that Scott..
Despite the noise thats pretty darn good for a Re-analysis..
Standard Time NHC, Standard Time
Hello Melissa... Please follow the models and go out to sea. The NE US Coast doesn't need another 'super storm Sandy' at this time.
goes out the way it come in

12 days remain
Quoting 434. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
goes out the way it come in

12 days remain


Like a Baby kitten?
Quoting 431. pcola57:


Thanks for that Scott..
Despite the noise thats pretty darn good for a Re-analysis..

The entire paper is a good read. The radar estimates were just a part of the entire argument for re-classification. They came at it from a few different angles, which all were fairly consistent.
Morning Dak.. :)
Weather weather everywhere!!
Not boring..
13-2-0

Good morning Melissa, good morning everyone.

...SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
11:00 AM EDT Mon Nov 18
Location: 29.3°N 53.6°W
Moving: NW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 987 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

Already lower pressure.

HOWEVER...IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT MELISSA COULD ATTAIN HURRICANE STATUS IN
36-48 HOURS WHEN THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS AT A MINIMUM.


Link
DO NOT CURVE.



Compared to six hours ago....

SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013
1100 AM EDT MON NOV 18 2013

DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS NEAR THE
WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF A LARGE GALE-AREA LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WELL TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
NEAR THE CENTER APPEAR TO HAVE DISSIPATED AND SO ADVISORIES ARE
BEING INITIATED AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE HINTS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAVING RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE INNER CORE
CONVECTION...THE SYSTEM IS STILL WELL-EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA SUGGEST
THAT THE CYCLONE MAY STILL HAVE A LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS.
AS A RESULT...THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM
RATHER THAN A TROPICAL STORM...AT LEAST FOR NOW.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTHWESTWARD...OR 320/08 KT. NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON MELISSA MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY SLOWING DOWN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO AS IT MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE
RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN THE CYCLONE AND THE AZORES. THE CYCLONE COULD
POSSIBLY BECOME STATIONARY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ON TUESDAY WHEN THE
SYSTEM MOVES UNDERNEATH A 200 MB LOW/TROUGH. HOWEVER...BY 48 HORUS
AND BEYOND...A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CANADA AND THE UNITED SATES IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE MELISSA TO
THE NORTHEAST. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...MELISSA IS FORECAST OT INTERACT
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEPENING TROUGH AND TURN BACK TOWARD THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.

MELISSA HAS ABOUT 48 HOURS OR SO TO STRENGTHEN...AND THE SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL INDICATES THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY 36 HOURS. THE WEAKENING SHEAR SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR WHILE THE
CYCLONE REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER...BUT ALSO ALLOW FOR THE
TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE ICON INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT MELISSA COULD ATTAIN HURRICANE STATUS IN
36-48 HOURS WHEN THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS AT A MINIMUM.
INIT 18/1500Z 29.3N 53.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 30.2N 54.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 31.3N 54.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 33.6N 52.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 36.6N 48.9W 60 KT 70 MPH

72H 21/1200Z 42.8N 39.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/1200Z 50.0N 35.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 23/1200Z 55.0N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
NEAR THE CENTER APPEAR TO HAVE DISSIPATED AND SO ADVISORIES ARE
BEING INITIATED AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE HINTS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAVING RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE INNER CORE
CONVECTION...THE SYSTEM IS STILL WELL-EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA SUGGEST
THAT THE CYCLONE MAY STILL HAVE A LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS.

BUT ALSO ALLOW FOR THE
TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

A perfect example of a Tropical Transition.

NHC gives Melissa about a 30% chance of strengthening to a hurricane per this chart.

Remember, Andrea had max winds near 70mph.... Much like the forecast for this system.




Link if image doesn't show up.
Link
Quoting 441. Torito:
DO NOT CURVE.



Compared to six hours ago....

By that time it will already have become an extratropical storm.
HEHE wrong location... Heck, that's the African coast!



Once again, link if the image doesn't work.

Link
Melissa says lets dance.

449. VR46L
Quoting 446. GTstormChaserCaleb:
By that time it will already have become an extratropical storm.


I don't think it was ever not.....
Quoting 448. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Melissa says lets dance.



Squished vortex at 15W 35N.... :P
Sideglance to the Mediterranean: Another circulating cut-off low - called cyclone "Cleopatra" by the Italian Med Office - is dumping torrential rains to the coastlines of the western part of this Sea. Ongoing special alerts for Sardinia which is already severely affected by flooding and heavy winds, causing damage and evacuations. Reports about more than 4 inches (100mm) rain and locally considerably more are out.


Clouds over Sardinia (left side).




GFS 06Z. Accumulating precipitation forecast from today until Wednesday.
Quoting 448. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Melissa says lets dance.



Attack of the mustached storms..... ;)
453. VR46L
Quoting 447. Torito:
HEHE wrong location... Heck, that's the GOM! (Or the EPAC....)



Once again, link if the image doesn't work.

Link


No worky :)
Ships calls this system fully tropical.... Shame on you, SHIPS.

Link
Quoting 453. VR46L:


No worky :)


RRRRRR.... See, wrong place. ;)

Hang on, I'm going to imgur this crap.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
check out the room prices vary cheap

Link
Quoting 457. Tazmanian:
check out the room prices vary cheap

Link


Wrong blog, and what is that? xD
Quoting 427. ScottLincoln:

Dan,

Sometimes scientists do try to infer winds in tropical cyclones using the method you suggest above. Have you read the paper detailing why Hurricane Andrew was changed to a category 5 after reanalysis? One of the lines of evidence came from tracking individual eyewall features as they rotated around the eye, then estimating the height of those features and making the necessary wind adjustments. If the radar system is doppler, one can also use the velocity data for wind going directly up/down radial for an estimate.
To my knowledge, these techniques are used in combination with other techniques and not by themselves.

Landsea et al. (2004):

Radar-derived wind vectors.
Low-altitude radar feature tracking presented by P. Dodge to the committee suggested surface winds similar to those implied by applying a 90% adjustment factor to the flight-level data.
...This technique has been demonstrated to provide lower-tropospheric wind vectors in the circulation of a hurricane that are comparable to those measured by aircraft. Tuttle and Gall (1999) reported agreement with 700-mb flight-level winds to within 10%, though the radar-derived winds have a relatively noisy signal and must be quality controlled before use.


In Landsea et al. (2004), they reference the following papers in regards to the radar tracking:
Tuttle and Gall (1999)
union and Powell (2002)



Scott,
Thanks for the reply. I did read through the paper, which was quite interesting and, fortunately, easily understood by a lay-person.

I guess I'm surprised that velocity inference from radar loops does not seem to be more widely used, given that seems to have been verified as pretty accurate. So why are we concluding that, "we will probably never know the true strength of Haiyan?" Seems like we should be able to determine it within 10-15% - not perfect, but better than the "dead reckoning" of Dvorak.

I also don't understand why this cannot be used to help with strength estimates of landfalling TCs, and therefore warnings, in areas not covered by hurricane hunters. I realize there is some additional uncertainty in how the winds translate to surface without other information from dropsondes, but...still, this is analysis that can be done from the other side of the world at extremely low cost, and, if it proves better than Dvorak, which is a pretty low bar, or even comparable in accuracy so the two could be averaged (an even lower bar) it could surely help places like the Philippines.

Anyway...thanks again for the comment and link.

Dan
Quoting 459. DanBlum:



Scott,
Thanks for the reply. I did read through the paper, which was quite interesting and, fortunately, easily understood by a lay-person.

I guess I'm surprised that velocity inference from radar loops does not seem to be more widely used, given that seems to have been verified as pretty accurate. So why are we concluding that, "we will probably never know the true strength of Haiyan?" Seems like we should be able to determine it within 10-15% - not perfect, but better than the "dead reckoning" of Dvorak.

I also don't understand why this cannot be used to help with strength estimates of landfalling TCs, and therefore warnings, in areas not covered by hurricane hunters. I realize there is some additional uncertainty in how the winds translate to surface without other information from dropsondes, but...still, this is analysis that can be done from the other side of the world at extremely low cost, and, if it proves better than Dvorak, which is a pretty low bar, or even comparable in accuracy so the two could be averaged (an even lower bar) it could surely help places like the Philippines.

Anyway...thanks again for the comment and link.

Dan

Perhaps there hasn't been anyone around that has wanted to put forth the time and effort to do that kind of analysis. That's the thing... talk is cheap, effort isn't. I dont mean that to be accusatory toward anyone, I actually think it is kind of human nature that most do to some degree.

If someone wanted to do it, they would need the radar data for the closest radar to the landfall. Then that person would need to find the tilt angle of the radar to estimate the elevation of the scan through the eye. Next would be to geo-reference the imgagery, probably in a GIS program like ArcGIS. Then the person would need to track each individual point and connect them with lines, subjectively curving the lines between points. Then divide distance by the time. Then look to see what adjustment factors would be necessary to "correct" the estimate to the surface speeds.

Want to get your feet wet with some radar analysis?
Quoting 460. ScottLincoln:

Perhaps there hasn't been anyone around that has wanted to put forth the time and effort to do that kind of analysis. That's the thing... talk is cheap, effort isn't. I dont mean that to be accusatory toward anyone, I actually think it is kind of human nature that most do to some degree.

If someone wanted to do it, they would need the radar data for the closest radar to the landfall. Then that person would need to find the tilt angle of the radar to estimate the elevation of the scan through the eye. Next would be to geo-reference the imgagery, probably in a GIS program like ArcGIS. Then the person would need to track each individual point and connect them with lines, subjectively curving the lines between points. Then divide distance by the time. Then look to see what adjustment factors would be necessary to "correct" the estimate to the surface speeds.

Want to get your feet wet with some radar analysis?



Scott,
I doubt I would be qualified. Although I do have some background in computer science, and purely as a software/pattern recognition problem / sorting the signal from the noise / etc., I would think it would be pretty interesting. I have friends in that branch of computer science and they're frustrated that the only research that gets funded is thru DoD. Maybe I should mention this to them. In any case, please don't misunderstand, i don't mean to come off like an armchair critic. Obviously, there are a ton of important problems to solve and there aren't enough people to do it all.

Dan