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Haiyan is Dead, Better Weather Ahead for the Philippines; 'We Can Stop This Madness'

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:44 PM GMT on November 12, 2013

Super Typhoon Haiyan is gone, but not before adding China to its list of ravaged nations in Asia. Haiyan made landfall on the northern Vietnam coast near the Chinese border as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds on Sunday, and spread torrential rains into southern China of up to 38 centimeters (15 inches) over some parts of Guangxi province, which caused up to $700 million in damage to agricultural, forestry, poultry and fishing industries there, said China National Radio. Seven people were killed in China on hard-hit Hainan Island, with three others missing. At least 13 people died and 81 were injured in Vietnam from the storm, said the Voice of Vietnam, the country's national radio broadcaster. Huge 26-foot waves from Haiyan swept 16 people out to sea in Taiwan on Sunday, killing 8 of them, the Chinese news agency Xinhua reported. The devastation wrought by Haiyan in the Philippines is among the most severe punishments ever inflicted by a tropical cyclone in modern history. With an official death toll of 1,774, Haiyan already ranks as the 3rd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. The deadliest typhoon in Philippine history was Typhoon Thelma of 1991, which killed between 5101 - 8000 people, reports wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt in his latest post on Philippines typhoon history.


Figure 1. Col John Sanchez, Central Command, AFP took these photos from a PAF Nomad aircracft over Guiuan, E. Samar, on November 10, 2013: "Guiuan bore the brunt of Super Typhoon Yolanda at its first landfall Friday. One hundred percent of the structures either had their roofs blown away or sustained major damage. Nearly all coconut trees fell. We saw people in the streets, seemingly dazed. Trucks and cars were left in the streets where they were stopped in their tracks as Yolanda struck. We were probably the first outsiders to fly over the area since Friday and obviously, no relief goods have arrived there yet. It was almost lunchtime but there was no smoke from cooking fires. The 2.4 km runway is clear of debris and could still be used by C130 aircraft." Image credit: Col John Sanchez , Central Command, AFP.

Tropical disturbance 90W leaving the Philippines; better weather ahead
A tropical disturbance that passed over the Philippines Island of Mindanao (Invest 90W), brought heavy rains of 82 mm (3.2 inches) of rain in the 24 hours ending 8am Philippines time Tuesday (7pm Monday EST) to Davao City on Mindanao. Heavy rains fell over the disaster area in the Central Philippines, as well, hampering relief efforts. However, the storm is now leaving the islands, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the east of the Philippines. This will bring several days of dryer weather, with only scattered afternoon thunderstorms, to the disaster zone. The GFS model is not predicting any new tropical cyclones forming in the Western Pacific over the coming seven days. The Japan Meteorological Agency is still classifying 90W as a tropical depression, but the Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has downgraded the depression (which they called Zoraida) to a remnant low, as of 3:30pm their time (2:30am EST.) The disturbance still has a high chance of development into a tropical depression, according to Tuesday's 06 UTC Western Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).

Haiyan's place in history
Haiyan hit Guiuan, on the Philippine island of Samar, at 4:40 am local time November 8, 2013 (20:40 UTC November 7.) Three hours before landfall, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) assessed Haiyan’s sustained winds at 195 mph, gusting to 235 mph, making it the 4th strongest tropical cyclone in world history. Satellite loops show that Haiyan weakened only slightly, if at all, in the two hours after JTWC’s advisory, so the super typhoon likely made landfall with winds near 195 mph. The next JTWC intensity estimate, for 00Z UTC November 8, about three hours after landfall, put the top winds at 185 mph. Averaging together these estimates gives a strength of 190 mph an hour after landfall. Thus, Haiyan had winds of 190 - 195 mph at landfall, making it the strongest tropical cyclone on record to make landfall in world history. The previous record was held by the Atlantic's Hurricane Camille of 1969, which made landfall in Mississippi with 190 mph winds.

With Angela Fritz' help, I've put together a list of most intense world tropical cyclones at landfall, using the advisories taken from the National Hurricane Center in the Atlantic and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in the rest of the world's oceans. Both agencies use 1-minute averaging times for their advisories, as opposed to the 10-minute averaging time used to report wind speeds by most international weather agencies and at most international airports. The list is unofficial and may have omissions; email me at jmasters@wunderground.com if you have suggestions for improvement:



"We can stop this madness"
At the annual United Nations talks on developing a global climate treaty, currently underway in Warsaw, Poland, Naderev Saño, the chief representative of the Philippines at the conference, said on Monday: “What my country is going through as a result of this extreme climate event is madness; the climate crisis is madness. We can stop this madness right here in Warsaw.” Saño promised to undergo a hunger strike in solidarity with the storm victims until “a meaningful outcome is in sight.”

I've blogged extensively about the links between hurricanes, typhoons, and climate change, most recently in my August 2013 post, Hurricanes and Climate Change: Huge Dangers, Huge Unknowns. Since hurricanes are heat engines that take heat energy from the oceans and convert it to the energy of their winds, rising ocean temperatures due to global warming should make the strongest storms stronger, though the poor quality and relatively short length of the global database of hurricanes and typhoons make it difficult to tell if this has already begun to occur. Hurricane scientists expect to see a 2% - 11% increase in the intensity of hurricanes and typhoons (aka tropical cyclones) by 2100. Later this week, I'll have a more detailed look at the conditions that helped fuel the incredible strength of Super Typhoon Haiyan, and discuss possible linkages to climate change.


Video 1. After Super Typhoon Haiyan ravaged the Philippines, climate change representative Yeb Sano pleaded with the world to take immediate, drastic action to reduce climate change-causing carbon dioxide emissions in an emotional speech at the UN's climate meeting in Warsaw, Poland.

The Philippine Red Cross is appealing for donations.

Portlight disaster relief charity is reaching out to disability organizations in the Philippines to provide durable medical equipment. and welcomes donations.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 492. hydrus:
Mother Nature opened the freezer door, and ya got some..It was 20 degrees here on the plateau this morning, and my barometer is 30.65 inches. That is the highest I have seen in quite some time.
yeah its cool here hydrus..would be great if the winds died down.
Today!!!:)
A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 65 by 5pm. Windy, with a northeast wind 20 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph.

Tonight!!:)
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. Breezy, with a northeast wind 18 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.
Quoting 394. WarmWind:
I don't have a scientific background, nor do I know much about meteorology but I saw a video on you tube that indicated microwave pulses were related to these huge storms like Typhoon Yolanda. It was fairly convincing. Does anyone know anything about this?


Do yourself a favor and read up on some elementary thermodynamics and physics. There are a number of legitimate sites online where you can get the basics. A little education can go a long ways towards filtering out worthless BS like that video.

Trying to claim that microwave pulses are somehow creating storms like Yolanda is the equivalent of saying that you can stop an oncoming speeding train by standing in front of it and farting in it's general direction. Tropical systems require orders of magnitude more energy than our most powerful terrestrial microwave transmitters, let alone any space based ones.
man vary cold air is comeing in for the upper mid W with highs by next week olny making it in two the upper teens and lower 20s for highs ouch
Quoting 454. Patrap:


Seems we have, thus the word "Global".

Do you ever read Dr. Masters entries ?, or do you jus use his platform for your Fla. focal point constant post?

I see you have 0 blog entries .

Maybe try that feature, it's all the "rage".
well one can post whats IMPORTANT to them patrap..I really dont care nor believe in global warming,and for sure I myself will not see any of its effects in MY lifetime,and futhermore I dont care for your tone..the way you spout that GW crap,are YOU making money off of it I wonder..dont tell me WHAT i can or cannot post..
The next system could be a high wind event.
Quoting 505. LargoFl:
well one can post whats IMPORTANT to them patrap..I really dont care nor believe in global warming,and for sure I myself will not see any of its effects in MY lifetime,and futhermore I dont care for your tone..the way you spout that GW crap,are YOU making money off of it I wonder..dont tell me WHAT i can or cannot post..



this put pat on your Ignore list and this like that his post are gone
next front could be stronger huh.............
Quoting 505. LargoFl:
..I really dont care nor believe in global warming,and for sure I myself will not see any of its effects in MY lifetime...

You are seeing the effects now, of course, but reality can be the worst taboo :)
Quoting 499. NEFLWATCHING:

Yeah, I never had much luck photographing lightning myself.

Trick with taking photographs of lighting is this.
Assuming you have a good storm in the distance and not too close as it tends to bring bouts of profound wetness in some areas but not always in ours.
Keep well away from any artificial lights if possible.
You need a solid tripod.
You need at best an old type film camera of reasonable quality which nowadays can be got for peanuts.
Put a film in it of 100 ISO. don't use higher ISO if you can help it as they are too sensitive to light.
Set the "F" stop on the lens to the minimum, which could be "F" 16, 32 or better even lower.
Set the dial to "B".
Now pointing the camera in the general direction of the storm, either press down the shutter button, or better still have one of those remote shutter depressant things and open the shutter for about a minute, they cost almost nothing in camera shops.
Repeat this at one minute intervals for about 10 shots and as long as the storm is reasonably active when you develop the film you should have good lightning photos.
If you get a big flash in front of you close the shutter and move on to the next frame as the big flash will have made a sizable impression on the film.
The above technique works very well for fireworks as well. Main thing is to have a sturdy tripod. I find old astronomical tripods very good with the camera strapped into them with duct tape.
A good tip before doing this type of night photography is to take a couple of normal daytime shots on the film, this gives the developer of the film and idea where to start cutting the frames for printing.
Best of luck.
This coming weekend could get a bit interesting around here..
Plant more trees
WRF radar simulation

60hrs or Friday afternoon.


PWAT's exceeding 2"
for those who are so concerned about global warming, posting constantly..ok so YOU care...my question is..what have YOU yourself done to prevent it?..have you stopped driving your polluting cars etc..what exactly have YOU done?...you see me myself ive planted six tree's here which absorb CO2 and scrub the air..i drive a hybrid car,using less gasoline...and I am only one person..someone who has done something about this so called global warming crisis..what have YOU done?...its very easy to spout off this global warming crap, easy to make posts, easy to even write papers on it BUT..i dont see any doing anything about it but making money off of it and raising taxes which doesnt do a damn thing in PREVENTING global warming..im sorry for those I offend..but I see Ive done something about it in my own lil area and I dont appreciate just because I dont rant about global warming day in and day out,that i cannot post what I..care about..gulf weather and especially FLORIDA weather.
Quoting 394. WarmWind:
I don't have a scientific background, nor do I know much about meteorology but I saw a video on you tube that indicated microwave pulses were related to these huge storms like Typhoon Yolanda. It was fairly convincing. Does anyone know anything about this?

Something like this Yolanda Typhoon might be generating more energy than all the power plants on the planet combined, possibly over a very long space of time as well.
The only way any of these garbage hounds could claim any kind of possible link to their incessant and incandesant drivel would be if they could claim to have influenced a weather systems birth as a sort of atmospheric embryonic stage.
Some what far fetched for our lot on this world.
Maybe these people watch a lot of Star Wars?
Good Morning. Reading through the posts this morning, this section from Patrap's post below caught my eye:

But it is not that earthquakes and tsunamis and other such calamities have become stronger or more frequent. What has changed is where people live and how they live there, say many experts who study the physics of such events or the human responses to their aftermath.

As new technology allows, or as poverty demands, rich and poor alike have pushed into soggy floodplains or drought-ridden deserts, built on impossibly steep slopes, and created vast, fragile cities along fault lines that tremble with alarming frequency.

We tend to focus on weather on this blog and the impacts of weather on Man including global warming issues. But one issue, and perhaps the most important one we don't discuss too often, is the simple fact related to the population of the world/overpopulation.

While Mother Earth may be reaching certain tipping points related to weather/climate issues the fact of the matter is that "Man" has exacerbated these issues by virtue of increased global population struggling for the same diminishing resources (food/water/shelter) on a global scale.

Regardless of global weather/natural disaster issues, the Earth was probably not meant to sustain so many people and folks continue to crowd coastal areas, river valleys, island nations, mountains, woodlands etc. and other "desirable" locations around the world which tend to take the biggest hits from natural disasters. As long as we continue this pattern of overpopulation, and settlement locations, we will continue to see these types of devastating events in the years to come. "Safe havens" are becoming harder and harder to find.
Quoting 514. LargoFl:


Hey Largo..
Just post whatever you want to..
I may have a difference of opinion..
But that doesn't make me blind to your position on it..
If we didn't have different viewpoints then we would all be like cattle to the slaughter just because someone has the will to make their views,right or wrong, the loudest and most heard..
I think you've done well and I hope you continue to do so..
Carry on.. :)
PS..
Sometimes the blandness of the written text makes the wrong impression..
Seen it many times.. :)
*Sneaks in. Sees Wednesday Wrangle going on. Sneaks back out.*

:/
Quoting 517. pcola57:


Hey Largo..
Just post whatever you want to..
I may have a difference of opinion..
But that doesn't make me blind to your position on it..
If we didn't have different viewpoints then we would all be like cattle to the slaughter just because someone has the will to make their views,right or wrong, the loudest and most heard..
I think you've done well and I hope you continue to do so..
Carry on.. :)
PS..
Sometimes the blandness of the written text makes the wrong impression..
Seen it many times.. :)
ty i do understand, what pisses me off is when someone Complains about my posting florida weather concerns and not making GW posts..something I do not believe in,I am more concerned about the next ice age that WILL come sooner or later..and be worse than any effects from GW..so yes Im going to make my posts in what I care about..florida weather..as everyone can do here,post about their weather liike we always do here..some person here thinks he can control what people talk about..oh well enough of this and thanks.......
7-day for Tampa bay area..coolness wont last long this time..
Quoting 518. Torito:
*Sneaks in. Sees Wednesday Wrangle going on. Sneaks back out.*

:/


There you go, run away from the situation. It's best to be the play it safers
Quoting 514. LargoFl:
for those who are so concerned about global warming, posting constantly..ok so YOU care...my question is..what have YOU yourself done to prevent it?..have you stopped driving your polluting cars etc..what exactly have YOU done?...you see me myself ive planted six tree's here which absorb CO2 and scrub the air..i drive a hybrid car,using less gasoline...and I am only one person..someone who has done something about this so called global warming crisis..what have YOU done?...its very easy to spout off this global warming crap, easy to make posts, easy to even write papers on it BUT..i dont see any doing anything about it but making money off of it and raising taxes which doesnt do a damn thing in PREVENTING global warming..im sorry for those I offend..but I see Ive done something about it in my own lil area and I dont appreciate just because I dont rant about global warming day in and day out,that i cannot post what I..care about..gulf weather and especially FLORIDA weather.

Demanding attention for the problem to which we all do contribute, for one.
"have you stopped driving your polluting cars" - no driving license for me (built in 1967)... Cycle, walk, train does it for me. But I must be honest, this has nothing to do with AGW. Neither has the fact my heating bill is always extremely low, though part of this is compensated for by the airco as 25° C in Holland is already far to hot for me :)

Money is still primarily being made by the fossil energy industry. In Holland subsidies for that is near $400.- for every $12.- subsidy for green energy. Follow the money, then please get used to the really big numbers.

On the 3rd of October Germany did 59.1% with renewables (47% wind and 12% solar). Energy prices dropped like a rock. That is the real concern for Exxon, Koch and their moneypowered political bases. If Germany proves a feat like that in this stage, we know energy could be almost free. And totally green. I hope China will bury the planet under a flood of cheap mills and panels.
Quoting 521. RitaEvac:


There you go, run away from the situation. It's best to be the play it safers
Rita has the water situation eased somewhat now where you live?..rainwise?
I guess some people didn't wake up with Folgers in their cup.
Quoting 514. LargoFl:
for those who are so concerned about global warming, posting constantly..ok so YOU care...my question is..what have YOU yourself done to prevent it?..have you stopped driving your polluting cars etc..what exactly have YOU done?...you see me myself ive planted six tree's here which absorb CO2 and scrub the air..i drive a hybrid car,using less gasoline...and I am only one person..someone who has done something about this so called global warming crisis..what have YOU done?...its very easy to spout off this global warming crap, easy to make posts, easy to even write papers on it BUT..i dont see any doing anything about it but making money off of it and raising taxes which doesnt do a damn thing in PREVENTING global warming..im sorry for those I offend..but I see Ive done something about it in my own lil area and I dont appreciate just because I dont rant about global warming day in and day out,that i cannot post what I..care about..gulf weather and especially FLORIDA weather.
MANY people here on the blog that do there part ( including Dr.Masters ) to help remove there carbon footprint so to speak. I seldom post on the matter, but yesterday I put my two cents out there for who ever wanted to read it. You might consider putting the people that push there views about GW on ignore. The subject will come up on the blog quite often for the obvious reasons.




Good morning from Central OK,

Well, like many others - we're freezing. But expected to be a balmy 50 degrees later this afternoon. Rain possible this weekend, and then another blast from the north. Blah.

On a more interesting and fun fact note, an interesting fact slipped by the other day.

11/11/11 - the daily record high and low for Oklahoma City were set on the same day, a result of the "Great Blue Norther".

Temps from around the state on that day:



So, although this cold snap is extremely strong, it is not entirely unprecedented.

Have a good one, and continue to count your blessings.
PlazaRed - Thanks for the tips. Back to lurking.
Quoting 525. hydrus:
MANY people here on the blog that do there part ( including Dr.Masters ) to help remove there carbon footprint so to speak. I seldom post on the matter, but yesterday I put my two cents out there for who ever wanted to read it. You might consider putting the people that push there views about GW on ignore. The subject will come up on the blog quite often for the obvious reasons.




hydrus whats getting to me is not GW posts,its someone who wants ME to post that GW crap and NOT post about my florida weather concerns..but i need to stop this,anger doesnt go good in here..he's on ignore now anyway so i'll stop..lets get back to the weather like always.
Quoting 523. LargoFl:
Rita has the water situation eased somewhat now where you live?..rainwise?


Slightly, but I'd say temporarily. Since Hurricane Ike in 08' Houston is 50+ inches behind in rain. So even with the wetting rains, from a grand standpoint we aren't out of the woods by a long shot. They have to keep coming, and as much as folks don't want to hear it or want, some floods are going to have to happen to get things back up to par.
Earthquake in Virginia... About a 2.0 on the Richter scale, but only about 5km under the ground, so still able to be felt.

"Did you feel it" responses show mag 2 readings.


for those who are so concerned about global warming, posting constantly..ok so YOU care...my question is..what have YOU yourself done to prevent it


i don't post a lot about climate change but i am proactive in doing my part....my recycle bin is fuller than my garbage bin....my home is weatherized and even paid the cost of adding ridge vent so as a result my energy usage is about a third less than my neighbors....we drive fuel efficient cars and i practice driving techniques that has my mpg 12 percent over the epa averages...we've looked into solar power...but need the costs to come down some before it is a viable option
Quoting 524. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I guess some people didn't wake up with Folgers in their cup.
I am on my second pot. The next cold wave. Courtesy of the ECMWF..

One in OK That was measured at about 3 and a half.

"DYFI" responses showed readings as high as mag 5, however.

Quoting 508. LargoFl:
next front could be stronger huh.............
Looks like spring..:)
TSUNAMI SEISMIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NWS NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER PALMER AK
1002 PM AKST TUE NOV 12 2013 (7:02 UTC, NOV 13)

...THIS IS A TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT...


EVALUATION
----------
*AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED - A TSUNAMI IS NOT EXPECTED.


PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
---------------------------------
* MAGNITUDE 5.7
* COORDINATES 51.5 NORTH 178.7 WEST
* DEPTH 24 MILES
* LOCATION 100 MILES E OF AMCHITKA ALASKA
90 MILES SW OF ADAK ALASKA


NEXT UPDATE AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
--------------------------------------
* THIS WILL BE THE ONLY U.S. NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER
MESSAGE ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT.

* THE EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS ARE BASED ON PRELIMINARY INFORMATION.

* FURTHER INFORMATION WILL BE ISSUED BY THE UNITED STATES
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY - EARTHQUAKE.USGS.GOV - OR THE APPROPRIATE
REGIONAL SEISMIC NETWORK.

$$



In terms of Conus and Atlantic season tropical storms, we have had several Cat 2-3's impact the US in the past decade, but the Haiyan issue of "peak" intensity at landfall is, thankfully, not repeated that often with long stretches of time in-between such a peak Cat 5 at landfall. Using Camille (69) and Andrew (92) as examples, there was a stretch of 23 years between those two storms and it has been 21 years since Andrew.

We are "overdue" at the moment and have to see what the next few years deliver in terms of the Atlantic seasons although lesser storms, such as Katrina, Wilma, Sandy, etc. can give us equally devastating blows (Cat 5 winds aside for the moment) in terms of storm surge, flooding, and other damage.
hydrus whats getting to me is not GW posts,its someone who wants ME to post that GW crap and NOT post about my florida weather concerns


largo...by the rules set forth is doc's blog....local non tropical weather reports are a violation of those rules...not that they're enforced...even the mods violate this rule and typically only enforce them when these types of posts disrupt the blogs...typically over two thirds of the posts are in some violation of the rules...oh well...my advice...live your life...if you get censored for it...either accept it or adapt...but as i agree that hydrus can make his comment....well..his comment on this blog..is no less a violation than yours....LMAO
Haiyan hit Guiuan, on the Philippine island of Samar, at 4:40 am local time November 8, 2013 (20:40 UTC November 7.) Three hours before landfall, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) assessed Haiyan%u2019s sustained winds at 195 mph, gusting to 235 mph, making it the 4th strongest tropical cyclone in world history. ( Dr Masters )

So Dr Masters if Haiyan is only the fourth strongest cyclone in history than why didn't you post the other three in your chart above?

I'll tell you what I think sir and it's all a matter of perception. For example if you state storms like Labor Day Hurricane - Florida Keys, 1935 with winds of 200mph it destroys the sense of urgency that these monster storms are all created by man. I would have liked to see the other three storms posted in your chart by wind speed and date.
Quoting 514. LargoFl:
for those who are so concerned about global warming, posting constantly..ok so YOU care...my question is..what have YOU yourself done to prevent it?..have you stopped driving your polluting cars etc..what exactly have YOU done?...you see me myself ive planted six tree's here which absorb CO2 and scrub the air..i drive a hybrid car,using less gasoline...and I am only one person..someone who has done something about this so called global warming crisis..what have YOU done?...its very easy to spout off this global warming crap, easy to make posts, easy to even write papers on it BUT..i dont see any doing anything about it but making money off of it and raising taxes which doesnt do a damn thing in PREVENTING global warming..im sorry for those I offend..but I see Ive done something about it in my own lil area and I dont appreciate just because I dont rant about global warming day in and day out,that i cannot post what I..care about..gulf weather and especially FLORIDA weather.

I see you posting weather bulletins and warnings for other areas of the country all the time. Not just Florida...
GEM is wishcasting again at 162 hours. -.-

GEM is wishcasting again at 162 hours.


by god man!!!!...that's not wishcasting...that's absolute fact....you darn denialists.....you can't accept a late season cat 5 widowmaker is gonna be knocking on your door.....LOL
542. ARiot
Quoting 514. LargoFl:
for those who are so concerned about global warming, posting constantly..ok so YOU care...my question is..what have YOU yourself done to prevent it?..have you stopped driving your polluting cars etc..what exactly have YOU done?...you see me myself ive planted six tree's here which absorb CO2 and scrub the air..i drive a hybrid car,using less gasoline...and I am only one person..someone who has done something about this so called global warming crisis..what have YOU done?...its very easy to spout off this global warming crap, easy to make posts, easy to even write papers on it BUT..i dont see any doing anything about it but making money off of it and raising taxes which doesnt do a damn thing in PREVENTING global warming..im sorry for those I offend..but I see Ive done something about it in my own lil area and I dont appreciate just because I dont rant about global warming day in and day out,that i cannot post what I..care about..gulf weather and especially FLORIDA weather.


That's exactly the problem. The science of AGW is solid and easy.

However, humanity has never pulled collectively in the same direction.

What I do about AGW isn't a quesiton of science.

Likewise, what I do has no impact, other than leading by example.

What is important is asking ourselves if we are ready to pull in the same direction, away from a carbon based global economy, away from a global food caravan of high-impact meat and grains, away from short-sighted growth-only econommic policy.

So that's the hard part. We've not even begun to address the problem, partially becuase the leading economy on the planet is run partly by people who can't accept basic science.

What do I do? Plant trees, donate tress, buy carbon credits, rarely eat meat, move close to work. But that is only for me.

The question is what are we going to do, as a collective.

Asking what I do is like asking a sodlier how he won the war.
Quoting 538. whatsup99037:
Haiyan hit Guiuan, on the Philippine island of Samar, at 4:40 am local time November 8, 2013 (20:40 UTC November 7.) Three hours before landfall, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) assessed Haiyan%u2019s sustained winds at 195 mph, gusting to 235 mph, making it the 4th strongest tropical cyclone in world history. ( Dr Masters )

So Dr Masters if Haiyan is only the fourth strongest cyclone in history than why didn't you post the other three in your chart above?

I'll tell you what I think sir and it's all a matter of perception. For example if you state storms like Labor Day Hurricane - Florida Keys, 1935 with winds of 200mph it destroys the sense of urgency that these monster storms are all created by man. I would have liked to see the other three storms posted in your chart by wind speed and date.


Those other storms were stronger, over water, but not at LANDFALL which is clearly indicated in the chart.

Take your outrage elsewhere please, nothing is being misrepresented as you are trying to insinuate.
Quoting 541. ricderr:
GEM is wishcasting again at 162 hours.


by god man!!!!...that's not wishcasting...that's absolute fact....you darn denialists.....you can't accept a late season cat 5 widowmaker is gonna be knocking on your door.....LOL



999.... Whats 999? The power of the storm? AHHHHH THE HUMANITY!!!!!

Joking. :)
Navgem shows it earlier and stronger! AHHHH ATTACK OF THE WISHCASTING MODELS!

138 hours

999.... Whats 999? The power of the storm? AHHHHH THE HUMANITY!!!!!



well as pat robertson would easily tell you......999 is simply 666 backwards...meaning that this storm is a curse from god from all of man's sins.....
GFS ENS Shows it too! even earlier!

120 hours
Quoting 533. Torito:
One in OK That was measured at about 3 and a half.

"DYFI" responses showed readings as high as mag 5, however.



You'll be busy posting:

Oklahoma, United States has had:

2 earthquakes today
21 earthquakes in the past 7 days
48 earthquakes in the past month

Apparently, this has now become so common they are calling for people to check and see if they have earthquake coverage on their homeowner's insurance.
GEM ENS shows it too.

120 hours

Here is a good global seismic activity monitoring site:

Link

If you point your cusor on the red circle noted in the Alaskan Aleutian Islands, you can see today's 5.7 quake there. Please note on this link that there have been several 4-5 quakes around the world in the past two days. This is a regular and common occurrence around the world every day but the NW Pacific Rim (from Japan to Alaska) has been pretty active the last few weeks.

Quoting 548. daddyjames:


You'll be busy posting:

Oklahoma, United States has had:

2 earthquakes today
21 earthquakes in the past 7 days
48 earthquakes in the past month

Apparently, this has now become so common they are calling for people to check and see if they have earthquake coverage on their homeowner's insurance.


At least I don't have to post tsunami information for that state! ;D
Quoting 546. ricderr:
999.... Whats 999? The power of the storm? AHHHHH THE HUMANITY!!!!!



well as pat robertson would easily tell you......999 is simply 666 backwards...meaning that this storm is a curse from god from all of man's sins.....


Only if your looking at that map with the south pole a the bottom ;)
Quoting 545. Torito:
Navgem shows it earlier and stronger! AHHHH ATTACK OF THE WISHCASTING MODELS!

138 hours



It's extratropical anyways ;)
Quoting 551. Torito:


At least I don't have to post tsunami information for that state! ;D


LOL - we don't often hear the cries of "surf's up" that's for sure.
Post 543
Those other storms were stronger, over water, but not at LANDFALL which is clearly indicated in the chart.

Take your outrage elsewhere please, nothing is being misrepresented as you are trying to insinuate.

No out rage here sir...cool as a cucumber. I mean no disrespect to anyone and certainly not the good Doctor which I am sure is a very brilliant man.

The question here are we scientist or alarmists? Not very scientific if we don't list all the data to be analysed. I know both sides of this debate cherry pick their data, but we can't have a logical debate with out all data presented.

What chart...where?
Quoting 555. whatsup99037:
The question here are we scientist or alarmists? Not very scientific if we don't list all the data to be analysed. I know both sides of this debate cherry pick their data, but we can't have a logical debate with out all data presented.

All the data analyzed was listed. The dataset that was being considered was storms that make landfall. According to the NHC and JTWC (also known as the "analysis sources"), Haiyan was the strongest known tropical cyclone making landfall. That is clearly explained above, with all of the necessary qualifiers. "Landfalling storms" is arguably more relevant, as we have more information contributing to the strength estimate when storms hit land rather than staying in open sea.

If you are concerned that 3 non-landfall storms are not in such a plot, but should be, perhaps you could put forth the effort to make a plot of "Strongest known tropical cyclones" that includes those other storms. Until that happens, or until you can indicate that a landfall storm is missing, the plot stands as valid according to the title, description, and qualifiers provided.
This is one heck of a cold blast coming next week!

Post 556

So educate me here. A stronger storm inland is tied to climate change how? And if there is a correlation between the two shouldn't we see this in a gradual trend upwards...not a in an all at once type of action? Seems to be we are grasping at straws here?

Also do you know the other two storms and there dates?
Anyone ready to declare the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season over?
Quoting 546. ricderr:
999.... Whats 999? The power of the storm? AHHHHH THE HUMANITY!!!!!



well as pat robertson would easily tell you......999 is simply 666 backwards...meaning that this storm is a curse from god from all of man's sins.....

Simple for the British who might be on here!
The 999 number is the number that you call in the British Isles to report an emergency.
So you would call 999 for assistance from the police, ambulance or fire service.
If you were at or near the coastal regions of which they have many, you could also call 999 for the coast guard to report anything which might need their attention.
As for 999 being reverse of 666, then if you times 666 mathematically by 3 which is its base then you get
1998 a sort of entrance to the global warming/ climate change/what the hell's next scenario.
Then again you could always watch soap operas and things like Dallas for an open minded opinion of what the future holds for us.
I personally prefer some of the comments here on these blogs!
Quoting 555. whatsup99037:
Post 543

No out rage here sir...cool as a cucumber. I mean no disrespect to anyone and certainly not the good Doctor which I am sure is a very brilliant man.

The question here are we scientist or alarmists? Not very scientific if we don't list all the data to be analysed. I know both sides of this debate cherry pick their data, but we can't have a logical debate with out all data presented.

What chart...where?


In his blog post above. If you cannot see it then maybe you need to check some settings on your browser?

The other more powerful storms have been mentioned in previous blog posts by Dr. M (at least some of them). But the chart is clearly labeled:

Earth's Strongest Tropical Cyclones at Landfall.
For those who think nothing is being done about the burning of fossil fuel, I would point out that the US Virgin Islands is burning 15 percent less oil than it was two years ago. Nobody died because we burned less fossil fuel. Solar is becoming a booming industry and three major solar installations are to be completed within the next two years. We are also burning methane from the landfill for energy and we are hoping soon to have a dispatch-able source of energy with King Grass. Of course those who make huge profits selling fossil fuel don't want people to know we can live without their product, but we can.
Quoting 555. whatsup99037:
Post 543
Those other storms were stronger, over water, but not at LANDFALL which is clearly indicated in the chart.

Take your outrage elsewhere please, nothing is being misrepresented as you are trying to insinuate.

No out rage here sir...cool as a cucumber. I mean no disrespect to anyone and certainly not the good Doctor which I am sure is a very brilliant man.

The question here are we scientist or alarmists? Not very scientific if we don't list all the data to be analysed. I know both sides of this debate cherry pick their data, but we can't have a logical debate with out all data presented.

What chart...where?

Quoting 448. PensacolaDoug:




Well then, You need to tell that guy!


Im surprised it got a "unprecedented"..there were no millions/billions of dollars in damage associated with our trace of snow..

a couple of snowman didnt fare well but i think its safe to say Wilmington can rebuild..
as far as Typhoon Haiyan, has the numbers of 10,000 people deceased been confirmed yet?

Typhoon Haiyan's toll: More than 1,800 dead
By Paula Hancocks. Nick Paton Walsh and Chelsea J. Carter, CNN
updated 3:44 AM EST, Wed November 13, 2013
Quoting 559. DrBobLade:
Anyone ready to declare the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season over?

I think most did a month ago.
Quoting 558. whatsup99037:
Post 556

So educate me here. A stronger storm inland is tied to climate change how?

My post was not related to climate change. My post was about your concerns that the plot was "cherry picking" and "not showing all the data." The plot was specifically titled and specifically described as showing the strengths of known landfalling tropical systems. It is accurate in doing what it was intended to do, and you have provided no evidence to the contrary.
Quoting 558. whatsup99037:

And if there is a correlation between the two shouldn't we see this in a gradual trend upwards...not a in an all at once type of action?

No. If we were talking about weather events related to or affected by climate change, we wouldn't necessarily expect a gradual upward trend. If.
Quoting 558. whatsup99037:

...do you know the other two storms and [their] dates?

I guess I would have thought that you knew of these storms, as you were the one that suggested they were left out due to cherry picking.
Quoting 558. whatsup99037:
Post 556

So educate me here. A stronger storm inland is tied to climate change how? And if there is a correlation between the two shouldn't we see this in a gradual trend upwards...not a in an all at once type of action? Seems to be we are grasping at straws here?

Also do you know the other two storms and there dates?
things are changing faster and faster than ever before what normally takes 1000's of years to change now change in 10's of years instead always have been changes but we are helping to increase those changes

how big of an event will be needed to make you see is the question

Quoting 557. StormTrackerScott:
This is one heck of a cold blast coming next week!

I hope so.I want the cold.Spring part two has to come to an end!.
Post 562

For those who think nothing is being done about the burning of fossil fuel, I would point out that the US Virgin Islands is burning 15 percent less oil than it was two years ago. Nobody died because we burned less fossil fuel. Solar is becoming a booming industry and three major solar installations are to be completed within the next two years. We are also burning methane from the landfill for energy and we are hoping soon to have a dispatch-able source of energy with King Grass. Of course those who make huge profits selling fossil fuel don't want people to know we can live without their product, but we can.

I applaud getting away from the burning of fossil fuels all that we can, but I think we need to be realistic here. We need fossil fuels in a lot of ways still. Try flying a commercial airliner with solar...just isn't going to happen.

I think we need to be realistic that wind and solar are going to fall way short of our energy needs. I would say go nuclear, but I don't like nuclear either. I really think we should go back to the drawing board and go with thorium reactors "big time". The problem is the nuclear industry is protected by the big boys who run things. After all you can't make bombs from thorium. If you guys really want to save the planet imho that should be your focus.
Post 568

things are changing faster and faster than ever before what normally takes 1000's of years to change now change in 10's of years instead always have been changes but we are helping to increase those changes

how big of an event will be needed to make you see is the question


I'm sorry I am not convinced of that. Climate can change very quickly and has in the past. Just ask the wooly mammoths found frozen in Siberia.
Quoting 570. whatsup99037:
Post 562

For those who think nothing is being done about the burning of fossil fuel, I would point out that the US Virgin Islands is burning 15 percent less oil than it was two years ago. Nobody died because we burned less fossil fuel. Solar is becoming a booming industry and three major solar installations are to be completed within the next two years. We are also burning methane from the landfill for energy and we are hoping soon to have a dispatch-able source of energy with King Grass. Of course those who make huge profits selling fossil fuel don't want people to know we can live without their product, but we can.

I applaud getting away from the burning of fossil fuels all that we can, but I think we need to be realistic here. We need fossil fuels in a lot of ways still. Try flying a commercial airliner with solar...just isn't going to happen.

I think we need to be realistic that wind and solar are going to fall way short of our energy needs. I would say go nuclear, but I don't like nuclear either. I really think we should go back to the drawing board and go with thorium reactors "big time". The problem is the nuclear industry is protected by the big boys who run things. After all you can't make bombs from thorium. If you guys really want to save the planet imho that should be your focus.


Yes, in total agreement there. And agree, regarding why thorium reactors were not further pursued. Although thorium is a nuclear reactor also.
Post 570,

if people were always "realistic" the jet plane would not have coming into being in the first place.

Practically any family should get enough energy for its needs from a 5K solar installation. No. solar and wind won't do it all, but they can do an awful dam lot and if we keep chipping away, who knows what other inventions might pop up to help us.
Quoting 335. Climate175:
The Good Old Days....


yeah. THey just don't make 'em like they used to :-)
Post 573

Yes, in total agreement there. And agree, regarding why thorium reactors were not further pursued. Although thorium is a nuclear reactor also.

I stand corrected:)
580. SLU
Quoting 559. DrBobLade:
Anyone ready to declare the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season over?


Very few on the blog are complaining again about the 2013 season again so they've all declared the season over.


Quoting 579. Xandra:


Sustained nuclear fusion and room temperature super conductivity, if they can progress past the theoretical, are the greatest hopes for mankind's insatiable need of inexpensive and reliable energy.
582. jpsb
Quoting 528. LargoFl:
hydrus whats getting to me is not GW posts,its someone who wants ME to post that GW crap and NOT post about my florida weather concerns..but i need to stop this,anger doesnt go good in here..he's on ignore now anyway so i'll stop..lets get back to the weather like always.

People, Global Warming is going to happen no matter what we humans do. Every day the Sun gets a tiny bit more energetic. While changes in the Sun's magnetic field mask this for us Earthling as does our atmosphere, none the less the Sun is getting Hotter. Given an ever hotter Sun there is going to be an ever hotter Earth.

It is estimated that life on Earth will no longer be possible in 400 million to 1 billion years. Our oceans will boil and the solar winds will blow our atmosphere into space. This is because the Sun primary fuel H is running out and more energy is required to turn the remaining H into He. So yes global warming it going to happen. Humans have zero to say about it.

What we humans should remember is that the Earth is currently in an Ice Age. We have far more to fear from a short term cooling event than a little warming. Only once (perhaps twice) has the Earth experienced run away warming do to green house gases and those events required massive volcanism to released green house gases 100's of times higher then we have now. However run away freezing (Ice ages) is far more common. All in all I view this current worry about AGW as extreme foolishness. Particularly as I freeze my butt off in South East Texas!
Not sure if anyone is aware - Amazon is now hosting Climate model info etc from NASA

http://aws.amazon.com/datasets/Climate?browse=1

I do not have any additional details as I have not had a full chance to check this functionality out - but it would appear they are doing this to open up more research into climate shifts etc.

Apparently this very recently came out. Sorry for not linking it - however I put it in plain text to avoid anyone getting scared of malware links etc


-MWS

The Weakest Solar Cycle in 100 Years
Scientists are struggling to explain the Sun's bizarre recent behavior. Is it a fluke, or a sign of a deeper trend?



The Sun is acting weird. It typically puts on a pageant of magnetic activity every 11 years for aurora watchers and sungazers alike, but this time it overslept. When it finally woke up (a year late), it gave the weakest performance in 100 years.

What's even weirder is that scientists, who aren't usually shy about tossing hypotheses about, are at a loss for a good explanation. Three scientists, David Hathaway (NASA / Marshall Space Flight Center), Giuliana de Toma (High Altitude Observatory), and Matthew Penn (National Solar Observatory) presented possible explanations at this month's meeting of the American Astronomical Society's Solar Physics Division, but their results sparked a lively debate rather than a scientific consensus.

A Weak and Weird Cycle

Sun's magnetic field
The Sun rotates faster at its equator, which stretches the magnetic field lines around the solar surface.

Addison Wesley

A well-behaved Sun flips its north and south magnetic poles every 11 years. A cycle starts when the field is weak and dipolar basically, a giant bar magnet. But the Sun's rotation is faster at its equator than at its poles, and this difference soon stretches the field lines like distended rubber bands around the solar surface. Frenetic activity ensues, with magnetic tangles producing sunspots, prominences, and sometimes flares and plasma explosions. All of that dies down when the Sun-wide magnetic field lines finally snap into simpler configurations, re-establishing the dipole field and beginning the next cycle.

The Sun has been doing all of that, just to a lesser degree. Not only is this the smallest cycle we've seen in the space age, it's the smallest cycle in 100 years, says Hathaway, who took part in the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel back in 2007.

Sun's asymmetric poles
The current cycle isn't just weak. Starting in 2006, the Sun's poles became asymmetric, with the south pole lagging behind the north for the past 7 years. Asymmetric poles are common enough, but they usually synchronize within a year or so.
G. de Toma / USAF / NOAO

The panel members were split at the time on whether the next solar activity cycle would be strong or weak, but their middle-of-the-road estimate anticipated 90 sunspots as a peak value near August 2012. Instead, the peak sunspot number seems to be less than 70, and the maximum arrived later than expected. Cycle 24 should have peaked in 2012, 11 years after its last minimum in 2001, but the Sun overslept by a full year, waking up in 2013 instead.

And its waking has been asymmetric: the north pole has led the cycle since 2006, with the south pole lagging behind. It's not uncommon to see hemispheres going out of phase . . . Usually this [asymmetry] lasts a year or so and then the hemispheres synchronize, de Toma explains. We don't know why this is lasting for so long.

Explaining Weirdness

Sun cycle history

Cycle 24 is the weakest cycle in 100 years. This might be part of a centennial tapering of magnetic activity known as the Gleissberg cycle.

D. Hathaway / NASA / MSFC

It's possible that, weak and weird as it is, Cycle 24 is still part of the Sun's normal variation, even if it's one of the weakest cycles yet recorded.

In fact, both Hathaway and de Toma think the 11-year cycle might be part of a larger one. Historical records show weak cycles at the turn of the 19th and 20th centuries, so it could be that the solar cycle tapers every 100 years or so in what's known as the Gleissberg Cycle. It's not easy to establish the existence of a cycle that turns over on such a long timescale, and even Hathaway admitted, Certainly I don't understand how it works.

Doug Biesecker (NOAA), chair of the most recent prediction panel, says, I remain highly skeptical . . . [Even] if you believe there is a 100-year cycle, then that still doesn't tell us why. Just that it is.

Penn offered another, more catastrophic option: the sunspot cycle might die altogether. His team uses sunspot spectra to measure their magnetic fields, and his data show a clear trend: the magnetic field strength in sunspots is waning.

Sunspots' magnetic field

Penn's research shows that sunspots' magnetic field strength is declining over time. Sunspots can only form if the magnetic field is greater than around 1,500 Gauss, so if the trend continues, we could be headed for a time where no spots appear on the Sun's surface.

M. Penn

If this trend continues, there will be almost no spots in Cycle 25, and we might be going into another Maunder Minimum, Penn states. The first Maunder Minimum occurred during the second half of the 17th century. Almost no spots were seen on the Sun during this time, which coincided with Europe's Little Ice Age.

But Penn acknowledges that magnetic field measurements from other studies don't always see the same trend he sees. Some observations show that sunspots magnetic field strength varies with the solar cycle, and others (including de Toma's) show that sunspots magnetic fields aren't changing with time. De Toma was even able to reproduce Penn's results by excluding small sunspots, suggesting Penn's trend might result from the way his team selects the sunspots they measure.

Another word of caution came from Hathaway, who notes that the Maunder Minimum might have been a catastrophic event rather than a gradual trend. Many of my colleagues are poring over historical records to find out . . . what did lead up to the Maunder Minimum? he says. New observations suggestion that the cycle before the Maunder Minimum wasn't particularly small.

Regardless of what's causing the Sun's strange behavior, Hathaway and Penn, who are both in the solar prediction business, anticipate that Cycle 25, expected to peak in 2024, will be the weakest yet.

Penn's prediction is based on the weakening magnetic field he sees within sunspots; Hathaway's are instead based on measurements of the Sun's polar field and the meridional flow, the flow of magnetic flux from the Sun's equator to the poles. A stronger flow would help strengthen weak fields, but meridional flows have been completely absent in Cycle 24 so far. We might have a long wait ahead of us to see if and when the Sun recovers.
Quoting 580. SLU:


Very few on the blog are complaining again about the 2013 season again so they've all declared the season over.


Not that I want to be different, but this has a shot if it does not move ashore.
Quoting 559. DrBobLade:
Anyone ready to declare the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season over?


I think 99% of us have already wrapped it up and said "better luck next season" weeks ago.
Quoting 584. Patrap:
O lordy,

i,m tellin ya...
Quoting 585. hydrus:
Not that I want to be different, but this has a shot if it does not move ashore.


All I see is dry air.
just thought I'd find out if anyone here has ever seen what I captured on veteran's day.
Along with a halo & 2 sundogs there was an arc that intersected the top of the halo (doesn't look quite like an upper tangent because it is not winging outwards after it touches the halo). It is not a circumzenithal. Might be a parry, because I noticed that the higher the halo is the closer the parry is to it (but I just didn't see images of the parry touching the halo).
Site I was given for more info.

Looking at the landfall chart above, I have noticed the omission of at least one notable storm. The best track data forTyphoon Karen (you're going to have to scroll some) has the storm crossing Guam with winds of 150 kt, or 175 mph, which would place it comfortably on the chart.

Quoting 474. StormTrackerScott:
Rest of November & December looks extremely cold for the US. As major blocking is beginning to set up across the US & Europe.

So far in November and December looks much colder than this per the Euro


December forecast. Brrrr!!

Notice the ridging over Alaska. Gonna be long harsh Winter folks!
The last time I saw a pattern like that was 09-010 for so early.I'm not saying it'll be a repeat.
With every new run of the GFS, the troughs become larger and further south. The last trough at 240 has some serious dynamics if it were to materialize.
Quoting 588. FunnelVortex:


All I see is dry air.
The little ball of convection north of Panama....it could...if it doesnt move ashore...form.
Quoting 592. hydrus:
With every new run of the GFS, the troughs become larger and further south. The last trough at 240 has some serious dynamics if it were to materialize.
Hydrus I'm hoping your forecast for the east this winter comes true.It's been a while since I've seen 6+ inches...Sure seems hard to come by these days.
Quoting 589. llpj04:
just thought I'd find out if anyone here has ever seen what I captured on veteran's day.
Along with a halo & 2 sundogs there was an arc that intersected the top of the halo (doesn't look quite like an upper tangent because it is not winging outwards after it touches the halo). It is not a circumzenithal. Might be a parry, because I noticed that the higher the halo is the closer the parry is to it (but I just didn't see images of the parry touching the halo).
Site I was given for more info.



While walking Nola Roux along Bayou St. John here in NOLA I saw the 2 Sun Dogs, but the Halo that you got, was much obscured by Jet Contrails here.

Was impressive though, esp with the Polaroid Sunglasses at the time.

Great capture of the images.

Thanks.
Quoting 584. Patrap:

The Weakest Solar Cycle in 100 Years
Scientists are struggling to explain the Sun's bizarre recent behavior. Is it a fluke, or a sign of a deeper trend?



The Sun is acting weird. It typically puts on a pageant of magnetic activity every 11 years for aurora watchers and sungazers alike, but this time it overslept. When it finally woke up (a year late), it gave the weakest performance in 100 years.

What's even weirder is that scientists, who aren't usually shy about tossing hypotheses about, are at a loss for a good explanation. Three scientists, David Hathaway (NASA / Marshall Space Flight Center), Giuliana de Toma (High Altitude Observatory), and Matthew Penn (National Solar Observatory) presented possible explanations at this month's meeting of the American Astronomical Society's Solar Physics Division, but their results sparked a lively debate rather than a scientific consensus.

A Weak and Weird Cycle

Sun's magnetic field
The Sun rotates faster at its equator, which stretches the magnetic field lines around the solar surface.

Addison Wesley

A well-behaved Sun flips its north and south magnetic poles every 11 years. A cycle starts when the field is weak and dipolar basically, a giant bar magnet. But the Sun's rotation is faster at its equator than at its poles, and this difference soon stretches the field lines like distended rubber bands around the solar surface. Frenetic activity ensues, with magnetic tangles producing sunspots, prominences, and sometimes flares and plasma explosions. All of that dies down when the Sun-wide magnetic field lines finally snap into simpler configurations, re-establishing the dipole field and beginning the next cycle.

The Sun has been doing all of that, just to a lesser degree. Not only is this the smallest cycle we've seen in the space age, it's the smallest cycle in 100 years, says Hathaway, who took part in the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel back in 2007.

Sun's asymmetric poles
The current cycle isn't just weak. Starting in 2006, the Sun's poles became asymmetric, with the south pole lagging behind the north for the past 7 years. Asymmetric poles are common enough, but they usually synchronize within a year or so.
G. de Toma / USAF / NOAO

The panel members were split at the time on whether the next solar activity cycle would be strong or weak, but their middle-of-the-road estimate anticipated 90 sunspots as a peak value near August 2012. Instead, the peak sunspot number seems to be less than 70, and the maximum arrived later than expected. Cycle 24 should have peaked in 2012, 11 years after its last minimum in 2001, but the Sun overslept by a full year, waking up in 2013 instead.

And its waking has been asymmetric: the north pole has led the cycle since 2006, with the south pole lagging behind. It's not uncommon to see hemispheres going out of phase . . . Usually this [asymmetry] lasts a year or so and then the hemispheres synchronize, de Toma explains. We don't know why this is lasting for so long.

Explaining Weirdness

Sun cycle history

Cycle 24 is the weakest cycle in 100 years. This might be part of a centennial tapering of magnetic activity known as the Gleissberg cycle.

D. Hathaway / NASA / MSFC

It's possible that, weak and weird as it is, Cycle 24 is still part of the Sun's normal variation, even if it's one of the weakest cycles yet recorded.

In fact, both Hathaway and de Toma think the 11-year cycle might be part of a larger one. Historical records show weak cycles at the turn of the 19th and 20th centuries, so it could be that the solar cycle tapers every 100 years or so in what's known as the Gleissberg Cycle. It's not easy to establish the existence of a cycle that turns over on such a long timescale, and even Hathaway admitted, Certainly I don't understand how it works.

Doug Biesecker (NOAA), chair of the most recent prediction panel, says, I remain highly skeptical . . . [Even] if you believe there is a 100-year cycle, then that still doesn't tell us why. Just that it is.

Penn offered another, more catastrophic option: the sunspot cycle might die altogether. His team uses sunspot spectra to measure their magnetic fields, and his data show a clear trend: the magnetic field strength in sunspots is waning.

Sunspots' magnetic field

Penn's research shows that sunspots' magnetic field strength is declining over time. Sunspots can only form if the magnetic field is greater than around 1,500 Gauss, so if the trend continues, we could be headed for a time where no spots appear on the Sun's surface.

M. Penn

If this trend continues, there will be almost no spots in Cycle 25, and we might be going into another Maunder Minimum, Penn states. The first Maunder Minimum occurred during the second half of the 17th century. Almost no spots were seen on the Sun during this time, which coincided with Europe's Little Ice Age.

But Penn acknowledges that magnetic field measurements from other studies don't always see the same trend he sees. Some observations show that sunspots magnetic field strength varies with the solar cycle, and others (including de Toma's) show that sunspots magnetic fields aren't changing with time. De Toma was even able to reproduce Penn's results by excluding small sunspots, suggesting Penn's trend might result from the way his team selects the sunspots they measure.

Another word of caution came from Hathaway, who notes that the Maunder Minimum might have been a catastrophic event rather than a gradual trend. Many of my colleagues are poring over historical records to find out . . . what did lead up to the Maunder Minimum? he says. New observations suggestion that the cycle before the Maunder Minimum wasn't particularly small.

Regardless of what's causing the Sun's strange behavior, Hathaway and Penn, who are both in the solar prediction business, anticipate that Cycle 25, expected to peak in 2024, will be the weakest yet.

Penn's prediction is based on the weakening magnetic field he sees within sunspots; Hathaway's are instead based on measurements of the Sun's polar field and the meridional flow, the flow of magnetic flux from the Sun's equator to the poles. A stronger flow would help strengthen weak fields, but meridional flows have been completely absent in Cycle 24 so far. We might have a long wait ahead of us to see if and when the Sun recovers.


Given our increasing dependence on power and electronics of all kinds, lessening solar activity is probably a fortuitous good thing. An intense flare directed towards us could cause failure of our power infrastructure with disastrous disruptive consequences.

Quoting 594. washingtonian115:
Hydrus I'm hoping your forecast for the east this winter comes true.It's been a while since I've seen 6+ inches...Sure seems hard to come by these days.
Much better pattern this year for it to happen....The past two winters were more like spring. We had our but handed to us the two years before tho. Lots of wind damage. Lightening too.
The cold front is now south of me!!:)
Quoting 592. hydrus:
With every new run of the GFS, the troughs become larger and further south. The last trough at 240 has some serious dynamics if it were to materialize.


I guess my thanksgiving lettuce and Christmas Broccoli in DC is at risk:-)

(Last year broccoli overwintered and the last half of winter had normal temps including a 3 year return period arctic outbreak in late January)
How do you like it?!:)
Quoting 597. hydrus:
Much better pattern this year for it to happen....The past two winters were more like spring. We had our but handed to us the two years before tho. Lots of wind damage. Lightening too.
CWG just put out their forecast..

In short, we favor yet another warm winter with below normal snowfall. However, all winters take on their own character. If we can deconstruct winter into a theme, the theme this winter will be incongruity between temperatures and snow.
Link
Quoting 593. hydrus:
The little ball of convection north of Panama....it could...if it doesnt move ashore...form.


For now, let's just say it has a >1% chance of forming in the next 5 days.
GFS 147 hours. TS in the ATL. (Not like that will actually happen.)

*chirp chirp chirp chirp*

Quoting 604. Torito:
GFS 147 hours. TS in the ATL. (Not like that will actually happen.)



If it does it will be extratropical.
Quoting 606. FunnelVortex:


If it does it will be extratropical.


Subtropical, It is attached to the end of a front, it appears.

Still, it will probably not form. :)
*reads post 603*

I know where this is going *hides*
Quoting 603. whatsup99037:
Post 584

I recently wrote an article for our church newspaper for our Christmas edition and it relates directly to your comments about the sun. Hopefully I am not out of place publishing it here and if it's deleted I will understand.

[snip}


In the future I might suggest summarizing, then linking to the rest. Both for the sake of not clogging the forum comment thread and for the sake of copyright/plagiarism concerns.

UPDATE: Yikes... that goes for a few previous posts, as well, not just the quoted one.
Quoting 608. FunnelVortex:
*reads post 603*

I know where this is going *hides*



Post 609

Noted.
Quoting 582. jpsb:

People, Global Warming is going to happen no matter what we humans do. Every day the Sun gets a tiny bit more energetic.

[snip]

Let me go ahead and stop you there. I might suggest that you catch up on current events... like, say, the data on solar activity post-1950?
Quoting 610. Torito:



LMAO! and for that I'm heading off.
Quoting 610. Torito:





lol, wheres that from?
Quoting 614. FunnelVortex:


lol, wheres that from?


Lol, its a user created gif. :)


Someone made it, it isn't off a movie or something. :)
It's weird in here today.

Look, snow:


(Click to embiggen)

I'm not sure I believe the GFS on those 20" totals for Colorado...
Quoting 582. jpsb:

What we humans should remember is that the Earth is currently in an Ice Age. We have far more to fear from a short term cooling event than a little warming.

Dumb humans, I got four wings, order odonata and I don't remember for I just know. Now hide from this:



Btw all the volcanoes of the world manage to emit at most 3% of CO2 that those remembering humans of yours do.

Btw2, you are writing that GW is going to happen no matter what, and that we have to fear coolings at the same time.
Is CAGW-denial that severe an affliction that it puts the brain into a state generating antitheses wholesale?
Quoting 595. Patrap:


While walking Nola Roux along Bayou St. John here in NOLA I saw the 2 Sun Dogs, but the Halo that you got, was much obscured by Jet Contrails here.

Was impressive though, esp with the Polaroid Sunglasses at the time.

Great capture of the images.

Thanks.

Thanks for your interest. Do you know of a site to send the photo to for further review by anyone that might be interested in seeing it?
Quoting 617. cRRKampen:

Dumb humans, I got four wings, order odonata and I don't remember for I just know. Now hide from this:



Btw all the volcanoes of the world manage to emit at most 3% of CO2 that those remembering humans of yours do.


Link
Quoting 616. MrMixon:
It's weird in here today.

Look, snow:


(Click to embiggen)

I'm not sure I believe the GFS on those 20" totals for Colorado...


What, are you a climate-data deniar?
Are you denying science?? :-))
Quoting 602. Torito:


For now, let's just say it has a >1% chance of forming in the next 5 days.
10%
It's weird in here today.

Today?

Quoting 618. llpj04:

Thanks for your interest. Do you know of a site to send the photo to for further review by anyone that might be interested in seeing it?


Upload it here in wunderphotos and you might just get a "Approver's Choice", or send it to Astronomy today as well.
Anybody that uses coconut oil may want to stock up because the word is it is going up a bunch due to the disaster in the Philippines.
Quoting 621. hydrus:
10%


.10%.
Quoting 620. WalkingInTheSun:


What, are you a climate-data deniar?
Are you denying science?? :-))


The GFS predicts weather, not climate. But I bet you knew that.
Quoting 623. Patrap:


Upload it here in wunderphotos and you might just get a "Approver's Choice", or send it to Astronomy today as well.
I did that and it got into VIP lol :)
Quoting 592. hydrus:
With every new run of the GFS, the troughs become larger and further south. The last trough at 240 has some serious dynamics if it were to materialize.


is this severe weather or winter weather implications?
Quoting 619. Torito:


Link

Smell something, too? -
Quoting 628. ncstorm:


is this severe weather or winter weather implications?
/both.
Quoting 600. SFLWeatherman:
How do you like it?!:)


So,...if we got a tropical cyclone in from the south by then, it would make giant snowballs & hailstones and be officially designated a "superstorm" like Cat. 1 Sandy? Hmm. We'd have to blame it on global warm-colding or something like that.

The Philippines? ("We can stop this madness")
Ah, well, they have been getting bashed by many storms every year, for many years. It is part of their normal weather. The fact that one is a bit larger this year is no big thing, or have you not seen the huge size on W-Pac typhoons over the years compared to what we have been getting here in the states, often times?

Btw, I don't suppose those HONEST "weather-criers" will admit to the big lack of data on the W-Pac storms in past years compared to those in the Americas & Atlantic, will they? -- Figures. Uhm, what about how many weather recon plane-flights went dashing out over all the many typhoons that hurtled in at the numerous poverty-stricken nations of SE Asia during all the past years, also? -- Oh, yeah,...probably not, ...while we got used to having such luxuries loaded with immense weather-data in comparison. Happy end of hurricane season, people!

Maybe links can be posted for legit ways to help the poor & suffering in the wake of the recent storm in SE Asia if anyone knows of some good sites where the $$ get spent properly & such.
Quoting 628. ncstorm:


is this severe weather or winter weather implications?
Both. It is not uncommon to have severe weather followed by winter weather conditions. Sadly, many times after tornadoes in the mid west they have to deal with winter weather while picking up the shattered pieces of there homes. If the return flow can establish itself, there will be severe weather events. The models are already hinting at severe weather next week.
Quoting 625. Torito:


.10%.
lol.
Quoting 631. WalkingInTheSun:


So,...if we got a tropical cyclone in from the south by then, it would make giant snowballs & hailstones and be officially designated a "superstorm" like Cat. 1 Sandy? Hmm. We'd have to blame it on global warm-colding or something like that.

The Philippines? ("We can stop this madness")
Ah, well, they have been getting bashed by many storms every year, for many years. It is part of their normal weather. The fact that one is a bit larger this year is no big thing, or have you not seen the huge size on W-Pac typhoons over the years compared to what we have been getting here in the states, often times?

Btw, I don't suppose those HONEST "weather-criers" will admit to the big lack of data on the W-Pac storms in past years compared to those in the Americas & Atlantic, will they? -- Figures. Uhm, what about how many weather recon plane-flights went dashing out over all the many typhoons that hurtled in at the numerous poverty-stricken nations of SE Asia during all the past years, also? -- Oh, yeah,...probably not, ...while we got used to having such luxuries loaded with immense weather-data in comparison. Happy end of hurricane season, people!

Maybe links can be posted for legit ways to help the poor & suffering in the wake of the recent storm in SE Asia if anyone knows of some good sites where the $$ get spent properly & such.

No worries, he just needs one of those record breaking storms. Used to it every year anyway. Or three times a year, like the Philippines.

/cRR
Quoting 626. MrMixon:


The GFS predicts weather, not climate. But I bet you knew that.


C'mon, now, I was talking about the data, and we all know that snow, ice, etc. are counted as data in the GW discussions, or why else would people be scratching their heads over all the ice at the S-Pole when Santa doesn't even live there?

So, if the snow goes south, maybe - just maybe, we should all start blaming Santa for relocating his magical fairyland - er, elf kingdom? - down south in the wake of the nuclear disaster in Japan? Hey, the fallout is drifting now, right? Would YOU want all the kids to possibly get nuclear-radiation-contaminated toys for Christmas? Thought not! So, we will all have to get used to Santa flying in from down below for awhile.

Edit
(Psst -- that wasn't too technical for everyone, was it?) :-))
Ho, ho, hoooo!
Rainfall deficit for OCTOBER is 40%...

2013's total will most likely be 2 TIMES LOWER than what 2010 or 2011 brought. GREAT PERFORMANCE!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 592. hydrus:
With every new run of the GFS, the troughs become larger and further south. The last trough at 240 has some serious dynamics if it were to materialize.


I don't want to sound weird or anything (lol), but being down south, I have a photo-request for those facing more severe cold weather.
Can someone up north post me a pic of a doc taking a whiz on a fire-hydrant or tree in extreme cold weather...and the stream instantly turning into a yellow icicle that sort of "leashes" the doggie to the tree or hydrant by his unmentionables?

No, nothing graphic, just the sad look on his face showing it is real. I just never have seen such a pic, so I have no proof that it really gets that cold up north. Hey, it might all be talk & a conspiracy to keep the population down & to prevent overcrowding, big sell-out runs on the best gadgets for Christmas, or something.
Januuary 19th 1977 it snowed in Miami...It hasnt snowed there since, could This be the year in which it does again?
Hmm, got a peek at that new post by the Doc.
Thanks Doc Masters!
Let's see, here - nice data.
Yep.
Uhum.
Yeah.
-- Eureka!

Okay, people, here we go.
Notice how Haiyan was a perfectly normal storm & not too big as long as it kept going West and didn't head NW. We might need to get climate & weather data on this to see how many really big storms in the W-Pac were on a NW trajectory as compared to how many only kept going West. I might speculate there could be something to this. If ALL the truly big storms happened only after they began heading to the NW, then we will have to have a global conference to decide what the world can do to prevent all W-Pac storms from straying from a due-West trajectory. Hey, we are talking DATA, here -- serious, pure data, and you cannot argue with science, right?
:-)


EDIT:
The opinions of this poster are not necessarilly the opinions of this station -- er, blog, and are not aimed or intended to poke fun at anyone in particular, especially not Doc Masters. (You have a great site, Doc. Just spoofing with others, here, nothing at you. lol.)
Quoting 642. WalkingInTheSun:Hey, we are talking DATA, here -- serious, pure data, and you cannot argue with science, right?
:-)


EDIT:
The opinions of this poster are not necessarilly the opinions of this station -- er, blog, and are not aimed or intended to poke fun at anyone in particular, especially not Doc Masters. (You have a great site, Doc. Just spoofing with others, here, nothing at you. lol.)

Totally spoofed, :D
644. ARiot
I know and am related to many people who have the same views as those expressed in post 603.

It's a tragedy no matter how you slice it huh?

Either science is correct, and we're on the tipping point of some bad climate forcing.

Or

The supernatural forces are coming back to save their followers and send the rest of us to hell.

Dang.

I was just feeling good about things in general.

What a bummer.

I'm off to read about the new bacertia colony discovery that throws down proof of billion year old life on Earth. Those dudes had it figured out man. That bacteria should be running this joint, not us. :-)