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Typhoon Haiyan Kills 1,200 in the Philippines, Heads for Vietnam

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 6:46 PM GMT on November 09, 2013

Typhoon Haiyan is headed across the South China Sea towards Vietnam as a much-weakened Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds after devastating the Philippines on Thursday and Friday as an extreme Category 5 storm with winds of 195 mph. With a preliminary death toll of 1,200, Haiyan already ranks as the 8th deadliest typhoon in Philippines history. Bloomberg Industries is estimating insured damages of $2 billion and total economic damages of $14 billion, making Haiyan the most expensive natural disaster in Philippines history. This is the third time in the past 12 months the Philippines have set a new record for their most expensive natural disaster in history. The record was initially set by Typhoon Bopha of December 2012, with $1.7 billion in damage; that record was beaten by the $2.2 billion in damage done by the August 2013 floods on Luzon caused by moisture associated with Typhoon Trami.


Figure 1. Typhoon Haiyan leaving the Philippines on November 9, 2013, as photographed by astronaut Karen Nyberg on the International Space Station.

Massive damage in the Philippines
It is still early in the rescue and recovery effort, and the death toll will undoubtedly rise significantly. Rescuers have not yet reached the south shore of Samar Island and the city of Guiuan (population 47,000), where Haiyan initially made landfall with winds estimated at 195 mph. Typhoon and hurricane maximum wind speed estimates are only valid for over water exposure, and winds over land are typically reduced by about 15%, due to friction. This would put Haiyan's winds at 165 mph over land areas on the south shore of Guiuan Island. This is equivalent to a high end EF-3 or low end EF-4 tornado, so the wind damage there must have been catastrophic--perhaps the greatest wind damage any place on Earth has endured from a tropical cyclone in the past century.


Figure 2. Damage from Super Typhoon Haiyan in Tacloban, Philippines on November 9, 2013. Image credit: NOEL CELIS/AFP/Getty Images.


Figure 3. Radar image of Super Typhoon Haiyan over Tacloban, on November 8, 2013. Tacloban was in the north (strongest) portion of Haiyan's eyewall, at a time when the typhoon's top sustained winds over water were estimated at 185 mph. Image credit: http://climatex.ph.

Haiyan's place in history
Haiyan hit Guiuan, on the Philippine island of Samar, at 4:40 am local time (20:40 UTC) November 8, 2013. Three hours before landfall, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) assessed Haiyan’s sustained winds at 195 mph, gusting to 235 mph, making it the 4th strongest tropical cyclone in world history. Satellite loops show that Haiyan weakened only slightly, if at all, in the two hours after JTWC’s advisory, so the super typhoon likely made landfall with winds near 195 mph. The next JTWC intensity estimate, for 00Z UTC November 8, about three hours after landfall, put the top winds at 185 mph. Averaging together these estimates gives a strength of 190 mph an hour after landfall. Thus, Haiyan had winds of 190 - 195 mph at landfall, making it the strongest tropical cyclone on record to make landfall in world history. The previous record was held by the Atlantic's Hurricane Camille of 1969, which made landfall in Mississippi with 190 mph winds.


Figure 4. Predicted rainfall from the 06Z November 9, 2013 run of the HWRF model, for the 66-hour period ending at 00Z November 12, 2013. A 100-mile wide swath of 8 - 16 inches of rain (medium dark red colors) is predicted to affect northern Vietnam. Rains of this magnitude are likely to cause a top-five most expensive natural disaster in Vietnamese history. Image credit: NOAA/NCEP/EMC.

Haiyan an extremely dangerous storm for Vietnam
Satellite loops show that Haiyan no longer has a well-defined eye, but the typhoon still has a huge area of intense thunderstorms which are already bringing heavy rains to Vietnam. Haiyan will continue to weaken until landfall, due to colder waters and higher wind shear, and will likely be a large and very wet tropical storm when it makes landfall in Vietnam on Sunday. Haiyan is expected to begin recurving to the northwest as it makes landfall, which means that a long 100+ mile stretch of the Vietnam coast will be receiving the punishing winds and peak storm surge of the strong northern portion of the storm. With part of its circulation still over water, Haiyan will be able to pull in a huge amount of moisture that will create prodigious rains over Vietnam. With the latest forecast track now expected take Haiyan farther north before landfall than previously expected, the extreme rainfall danger for Laos has diminished, but I expect that the 8+ inches of rain that the storm will dump on Vietnam will make it a top-five most expensive natural disaster in their history.

According to reliefweb.int, in the first two weeks of October, Central Vietnam was hit by two Category 1 storms, Typhoons Wutip and Nari, leaving behind significant damages in nine provinces. The total economic loss due to Nari was $71 million. Typhoon Wutip's damages were estimated at $663 million. According to EM-DAT, this makes Wutip the second most expensive natural disaster in Vietnamese history, behind the $785 million in damages caused by 2009's Typhoon Ketsana, which also killed 192 people in Vietnam.


Video 1. Storm chasers James Reynolds, Josh Morgerman and Mark Thomas of iCyclone.com were in the capital of Leyte Province, Tacloban, which received a direct hit from Super Typhoon Haiyan. Video includes the remarkable winds and storm surge of Haiyan, and the rescue of injured people from flood waters.

More heavy rain coming to the Philippines
A tropical disturbance located east of the Philippines near 3°N 141°E, (Invest 90W), has developed a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity as it heads west towards the Philippines. With moderate wind shear and a location too close to the Equator to leverage Earth's spin, the disturbance will be slow to develop, according to the latest Western Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The GFS model has been predicting for several days now that this disturbance will organize into a tropical depression by Monday and pass through the southern or central Philippines on Tuesday as a tropical storm. However, the latest 12Z run of the model no longer shows development, and keeps 90W as a tropical disturbance as it passes through the Philippines on Tuesday and Wednesday. I expect 90W will be organized enough to bring heavy rains of 2 - 4" to the area devastated by Super Typhoon Haiyan.

The Red Cross is appealing for donations.

Portlight disaster relief charity is reaching out to disability organizations in the Philippines to provide durable medical equipment. and welcomes donations.

New "Tipping Points" episode, "Africa Alarmed", airs Saturday at 9 pm EDT/8 pm CDT
“Tipping Points”, a landmark 6-part climate change TV series that began airing in October on The Weather Channel, airs for the fourth time on Saturday night, November 9, at 9 pm EDT. The new episode, "Africa Alarmed", goes on an expedition from the far north of the Sahara to the far south of the continent, in Cape Town, to explore the climate changes affecting Africa’s vital weather systems. The series is hosted by polar explorer and climate journalist Bernice Notenboom, the first woman to perform the remarkable triple feat of climbing Mt. Everest and walking to the North and South Poles. In each episode, Notenboom heads off to a far corner of the world to find scientists in the field undertaking vital climate research to try to understand how the climate system is changing and how long we have to make significant changes before we reach a tipping point--a point of no return when our climate system will be changed irreversibly.


Figure 5. "Tipping Points" host Bernice Notenboom visits the Gobabeb Research and Training Center in Africa's Namib Desert.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

With a 1044 mb High settling into Dixie, The Tropical frame O doom wont occur dis week.

National Weather Service New Orleans la
424 am CST sun Nov 10 2013

Synopsis...
latest surface analysis showed a 1029mb over eastern Nebraska
expanding southeast to the lower Mississippi Valley and maintaining
an east flow over the area this morning. Temperatures about 10 to
15 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Upper air analysis continue
to a west flow over eastern two thirds Continental U.S. With an embedded
positively tilted weak short wave from north Mississippi to
southeast Texas. Precipitable water field showed a one inch swath
from southeast Texas to central Mississippi...0.8 inch at
lix...dry exiting east. Our thinking from yesterday was the short
wave was pushing into confluent flow and lift would be too gentle.
However...latest radar revealed isolated showers from Baton Rouge
to central Alabama. Up north...a vigorous wave was located west of
Hudson Bay diving southeast.

&&

Discussion...
will have to insert isolated showers for this morning as lift
ahead of the short wave will be enough to create or maintain
isolated showers over the forecast area for this morning to noon.
Trough axis will track east and scour some the moisture
east...leaving precipitable water values around 0.7 inch over the area this
afternoon and tonight. Surface high to the north will build into the
lower Mississippi Valley and forecast area late today through
Monday.

Up north...the vigorous wave west of Hudson Bay will track
southeast across the northern part of the Great Lakes Monday. This
will allow an Arctic 1044mb high to dive south over the North
Plains Monday into Tuesday. Cold air and density associated with this
air mass may initially undercut the west flow aloft initially. This wave
will finally develop into a long wave with a sharp axis from New
Brunswick to Mississippi by Tuesday afternoon. The surface front
will have limited moisture and precipitation is not anticipated over the
forecast area. However...cold air advection will be the strongest
of season thus far...still showing 1000 to 700mb thickness values
below 2900m over the forecast Wednesday morning...a 100m drop from
Tuesday morning to Wednesday morning over the forecast area. A
frontal passage is expected Tuesday with two surges...wind shift
Tuesday morning and wind speed increase and cold air late Tuesday
afternoon. The second surge will likely prompt the issuance of
Lane and marine wind related advisories and warnings Tuesday night
and Wednesday. A possible freeze may occur across extreme northern
zones Wednesday morning...however lighter winds Thursday morning
will yield a more widespread light freeze across north zones of
the forecast area. Sharp trough will exit and thickness values
will increase through next weekend. 18
Quoting 500. RTSplayer:



If this storm did $14 Billion damage in the Philippines, then I can't imagine how much the monetary losses, and the loss of life, would be if it hit in the U.S. Everything is bigger, more elaborate, and more expensive here: Houses, cars, businesses, etc.

If a storm like that was to hit Miami or Tampa Bay with the right-front eye wall, it could break $200 Billion in damages relatively easily.
For sure RTS... Luckily for south Florida Andrew was south of downtown Miami.... Very bad.. but could have been much, much worse if only 15 miles north..
Quoting 496. BahaHurican:
It would be tres ironic if we get the strongest ATL storm of the season after all the eager beavers have given up.... lol... not saying I expect it, mind u...
With the dry air strong shear..and cooling of the sst and not mention the Artic front coming down soon I think we can pretty much say good-bye to 2013 unless it dose some crazy stuff like in 07 when Olga formed..For now...
Quoting 465. Sfloridacat5:


I was going to ask if there were any official reporting stations in the area where the center made landfall. From what I've seen, definately looks like some cat 5 damage in some areas.
Originally the storm was suppose to have winds approaching 200 mph with higher gusts. I just couldn't imagine the destruction from 200+ mph winds.

I've seen tornado damage from 200+ mph winds and even modern built structures are left with only a concrete slab.
Xenia Ohio...April 3rd, 1974... I was in the middle of it....
90W Rainbow Loop

Quoting 500. RTSplayer:



If this storm did $14 Billion damage in the Philippines, then I can't imagine how much the monetary losses, and the loss of life, would be if it hit in the U.S. Everything is bigger, more elaborate, and more expensive here: Houses, cars, businesses, etc.

If a storm like that was to hit Miami or Tampa Bay with the right-front eye wall, it could break $200 Billion in damages relatively easily.
Exactly.That day will eventually come.It's been said over and over again.."Everything changes nothing never remains the same for to long".If a storm were headed for a major U.S city i wonder if the local and state governments will have the funds and plans in place for a catastrophe like that.
Guiuan: Before & After Haiyan.

Bigger Image
Quoting 504. PalmBeachWeather:
Xenia Ohio...April 3rd, 1974... I was in the middle of it....
Bet that was pleasant. I remember watching the news and it was scary stuff.
Quoting 505. Patrap:
90W Rainbow Loop

Sadly here comes round two.
Images like these, to me, corroborate the estimated landfall intensity (sorry, can't seem to get the image itself to paste in here).

That looks like borderline EF-3/EF-4 tornado damage in my mind, as do a number of the pictures coming out of Guiuan. And of course, as we all know, tornado damage for any given windspeed will be usually be considerably higher than straightline hurricane damage. So if it looks like 160 mph tornado damage, it's going to be maybe 180 mph at least, and we wouldn't expect a 195 mph storm (sustained winds over water) to produce winds any stronger than that over land.

But admittedly the images we've got so far are still way too sketchy to tell.
Quoting 508. hydrus:
Bet that was pleasant. I remember watching the news and it was scary stuff.
hydrus... I was a very young girl just getting out of school....I made it home and all hell let loose... At that time I lived near the Greene County Fairgrounds... Just on the edge of the terrible damage... Lost friends at ground zero at A&W Root Beer stand..... 35 killed..Luckily it was a time when people were not on the roads or walking.. Xenia still has not recovered fully.
Death toll now?... I would look but I'm on mobile right now and the number must be terrible...
Quoting 512. Torito:
Death toll now?... I would look but I'm on mobile right now and the number must be terrible...
I don't think we will get an accurate total until weeks from now....
Quoting 513. PalmBeachWeather:
I don't think we will get an accurate total until weeks from now....


I heard rumors of 10000, please tell me that that isn't true... :(
Quoting 511. PalmBeachWeather:
hydrus... I was a very young girl just getting out of school....I made it home and all hell let loose... At that time I lived near the Greene County Fairgrounds... Just on the edge of the terrible damage... Lost friends at ground zero at A&W Root Beer stand..... 35 killed..Luckily it was a time when people were not on the roads or walking.. Xenia still has not recovered fully.
Friend of mine went through the Xenia Tornado. He never discussed it much.
Quoting 507. Ameister12:

Guiuan: Before & After Haiyan.

Bigger Image

I made another one. This one has a wider view of the city.

Click image for a bigger view
Quoting 514. Torito:


I heard rumors 10000, please tell me that that isn't true... :(


I remember right after Hurricane Katrina estimates were 50,000+ killed. Then slowly over time the number of killed decreased.

Hopefully that will be the case.
Quoting 514. Torito:


I heard rumors of 10000, please tell me that that isn't true... :(
If the death toll is only 10,000. It would be miraculous. Some estimates are much higher.
Just looked at any news for the first time today. My fears are seemingly being justified. Such a horrible situation over there. There is no reason to throw out any figures as they will only change. We all know and realize the direction this is headed. Please, anyone with the means to do so, do anything you can to help. Find a reliable agency and give a little. These people are suffering beyond our realm of imagination. The only comparison I can make is the Indian Ocean Earthquake and the Haitian Earthquake based on all images and videos I've seen. It truly does look to be on a whole other scale than Bopha or similar typhoon. The days to come will be dire indeed.
To any of the British forecasters here, I know its Remembrance Sunday there. RIP to all the British troops in past wars. US Americans deeply appreciate your friendship with us.


On a weather note, Another storm possibly heading towards the Philippines? I hope it dies :/
Quoting 515. hydrus:
Friend of mine went through the Xenia Tornado. He never discussed it much.
hydrus.... I probably know your friend...Small town.. You can email me....
Quoting 518. hydrus:
If the death toll is only 10,000. It would be miraculous. Some estimates are much higher.


:'(
Quoting 510. FlyingScotsman:
Images like these, to me, corroborate the estimated landfall intensity (sorry, can't seem to get the image itself to paste in here).

That looks like borderline EF-3/EF-4 tornado damage in my mind, as do a number of the pictures coming out of Guiuan. And of course, as we all know, tornado damage for any given windspeed will be usually be considerably higher than straightline hurricane damage. So if it looks like 160 mph tornado damage, it's going to be maybe 180 mph at least, and we wouldn't expect a 195 mph storm (sustained winds over water) to produce winds any stronger than that over land.

But admittedly the images we've got so far are still way too sketchy to tell.
Agree. The downed coconuts are for me the final marker. Other damage might have been done by tornadic vortices in the eyewall, but the palms laid down with such thoroughness suggest the straight-line winds had to be in the cat 5 range.
One cannot use the EF Tornado scale for Typhoon damage, as it doesn't relate well at all.

The impact count's, as all other is numbers.

The concern is for saving those left without shelter, food and water and those who need expedient Medical Attention.

90 W is forming and time iz critical.
Quoting 523. BahaHurican:
Agree. The downed coconuts are for me the final marker. Other damage might have been done by tornadic vortices in the eyewall, but the palms laid down with such thoroughness suggest the straight-line winds had to be in the cat 5 range.


True. I haven't seen pics like that yet, but I've seen them snap in videos. It really does take incredible force to break their trunks in half. Even seeing the entire frond crown ripped off is a feat.
Quoting 514. Torito:


I heard rumors of 10000, please tell me that that isn't true... :(
Some officials have been saying that, but that is very much an estimate. So far I've been seeing 200 here, 57 there, and so on. Unfortunately the 1200 figure the doc used in his blog is extremely likely to be verified within the next 48, and I expect the toll to go higher. 10000? I'd wait on something more official.

I have a feeling there are going to be quite a few missing and presumed dead due to storm surge.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Agree. The downed coconuts are for me the final marker. Other damage might have been done by tornadic vortices in the eyewall, but the palms laid down with such thoroughness suggest the straight-line winds had to be in the cat 5 range.

Takes a massive blast of wind to push coconut trees over.
The 10K figure is extracted from Sampling during the assessment flights, recons on the ground, and official Body counts determined to be valid.

As the days of assessment go by, the figure will become better resolved, and unfortunately, much higher is expected from the info we have been garnering to help in Disabled Medical Equipment to be replaced.

Left foreground are the ruins of the 1718 Church of the Immaculate Conception.







http://heritageconservation.wordpress.com/2008/01 /14/guiuan-church/
Wind damage, apparently. How much wind brings down a stone building that's been there for 300yr!?
Quoting 507. Ameister12:
Guiuan: Before & After Haiyan.

Bigger Image

Quoting 495. LargoFl:
GFS likes to keep the storm watchers here Happy huh..


Interesting how the GFS forms a storm on the tail end of a front in the middle of the Atlantic. Then the storm just sits there and slowly dies over time. Too bad we can't get that in the Caribbean or GOM.

Are you having any issue running the GFS model? When I run the model it stops for some reason.
hello Everyone..what a beautiful sunday morning it is here in eastern NC..I'm so glad I was awoken to see another day unfortunately a lot of our Filipino friends wont be able to say the same..appreciate the time you have here on this earth and never miss a chance to tell your love ones that you love them..

From NWS, Wilmington, NC--small chance but I will take it..

ONE OF THE CONCERNS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WAS THE CHANCE FOR SOME
WINTRY PRECIPITATION HERE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE...ALTHOUGH SMALL...FOR SNOWFLAKES ACROSS THIS AREA.
ALTHOUGH TEMPS COOL RAPIDLY BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...AND MOISTURE
ACTUALLY INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID-LEVELS (THUS PARTIALLY
SATURATING THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE) THANKS TO MOIST ADVECTION AND
PVA AHEAD OF THE MAIN VORT...SUB-CLOUD LAYERS REMAIN DRY. SLOPED
900-800MB FGEN DOES APPEAR TUESDAY NIGHT BENEATH A REGION OF
ISOTHERMAL THETA-ES AND WEAK MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE. THIS
IS FOCUSED WEST OF I-95...AND IS A SIGNAL THAT AT LEAST SOME
COMBINATION OF LIFT/INSTABILITY WILL TAP THE MOIST -12C TO -20C
LAYER AS SURFACE TEMPS COOL. HOWEVER...THESE FGEN SIGNATURES AND
THETA-E FOLDS ARE MUCH WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS SUGGESTS
WEAKER OMEGA...THUS ANY PRECIP THAT WILL TRY TO FALL WILL OCCUR
WITH VERY LIGHT RATES.

ALTHOUGH PRECIP FALLING INTO THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WOULD LEAD TO
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND 32F...FEEL TOO
MUCH EVAPORATION WILL BE REQUIRED TO SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS
SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR SNOWFLAKES TO REACH THE GROUND. TOP-DOWN
METHODS THIS MORNING DO PAINT A SLIVER OF R-/S- ACROSS EXTREME NW
ZONES...BUT HAVE OPTED TO KEEP OUT MENTION OF ANY SNOW AT THIS TIME.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW LOCATIONS DO SEE SNOWFLAKES TOWARDS
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE DRYING OCCURS ALOFT...BUT EXPECT
PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE TO BE A VERY LIGHT...AND CHILLY RAINFALL.
HAVE CONTINUED SCHC POP WITH R- FOR NOW...AND QPF WILL BE LIGHT.
Quoting 529. no1der:
Left foreground are the ruins of the 1718 Church of the Immaculate Conception.







http://heritageconservation.wordpress.com/2008/01 /14/guiuan-church/
Wind damage, apparently.



Hopefully people didn't go there for shelter.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Hopefully people didn't go there for shelter.

Pretty sure they would have done.
It was a substantial structure.
Hard to imagine stone walls that have stood for 300 years being pushed over.....
Quoting 520. Doppler22:
To any of the British forecasters here, I know its Remembrance Sunday there. RIP to all the British troops in past wars. US Americans deeply appreciate your friendship with us.


On a weather note, Another storm possibly heading towards the Philippines? I hope it dies :/
Also to all Commonwealth countries, which, like mine, had fallen warriors in the Great War and WW2 as part of the British Empire...

We shall not forget.
Quoting 524. Patrap:
One cannot use the EF Tornado scale for Typhoon damage, as it doesn't relate well at all.

The impact count's, as all other is numbers.

The concern is for saving those left without shelter, food and water and those who need expedient Medical Attention.

90 W is forming and time iz critical.


Indeed a very problematic issue, the possibility of another cyclone.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Also to all Commonwealth countries, which, like mine, had fallen warriors in the Great War and WW2 as part of the British Empire...

We shall not forget.


Indeed.
and Cowboys..GO TO WORK TONIGHT!!..Panthers are counting on you to hand that L to those "aints" so we can tie when we beat the 49ers..

G'morning from Central OK,

Cool here, with the Arctic front forming expected to chill us out on Tuesday. Temps in the 40's with wind chills in the 20's - brrrr!

It looks as if the current track of Haiyan may spare Vietnam the worst, with more of an impact on those in China. The fact that it did not appreciably strengthen is good.

Unfortunately, the pictures coming out of Eastern Samar confirm what was expected based on intensity estimates of Haiyan.

A couple of links,, and a plug, for most recent information.

Official Philippine government figures: NDRRMC

RAPPLER.COM has been particularly useful for providing reliable information relatively more quickly than some of the other media sources.

Their "What we know" list

And if you missed this previous post, it includes footage of Yolanda as it was impacting Giporlos in Eastern Samar. The winds are absolutely astounding.
Giporlos, Eastern Samar in ruins after Yolanda

I hope you all have a fantastic day. Thoughts and prayers (as well as more meaningful direct contributions) for those in the Philippines.

Count your blessings.
Quoting 465. Sfloridacat5:
[...]
I've seen tornado damage from 200+ mph winds and even modern built structures are left with only a concrete slab.
I've seen the same from an F5 tornado that approached 0.5 mile wide. It went through many residential neighborhoods. Clean slabs were in the minority, most houses were left in a shattered state with maybe 1-2 walls standing or the top story gone. The amount and type of debris is a big variable on the resulting damage, so trying to assess wind-speed in this manner is unreliable.
Quoting 504. PalmBeachWeather:
Xenia Ohio...April 3rd, 1974... I was in the middle of it....


Holy cow! That must have been terrifying off the scale!

Serious sphincter factor.
Quoting 529. no1der:
Left foreground are the ruins of the 1718 Church of the Immaculate Conception.







http://heritageconservation.wordpress.com/2008/01 /14/guiuan-church/
Wind damage, apparently. How much wind brings down a stone building that's been there for 300yr!?

Entirely possible, perhaps BECAUSE it's been there 300 years...

The thing is, had that building ever gone through winds that high before? I'd guess no. I keep looking at how the entire 3rd story of the bell tower is just... gone...

I've also seen pictures of churches of similar construction here [in Nassau] severely damaged by cat 4 storms in the 1880s... I think a lot depend on individual characteristics of both storm and church...
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
DEEP DEPRESSION ARB01-2013
17:30 PM IST November 10 2013
==============================

At 12:00 PM UTC, The deep depression over southwest Arabian Sea remained practically stationary and lays center near 8.0N 51.0E, about 350 km south of Ras Binnah, Somalia, 590 km south southwest of Socotra Island, Yemen, and 2430 km west southwest of Minicoy, Lakshadweep.

The system would continue to move slowly west northwestward and cross Somalia coast near 8.2N at around 5:30 AM IST (0:00 AM UTC), Monday.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.0. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense convection seen over Arabian Sea between 5.0N and 11.0N west of 53.0E and adjoining Somalia coast. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -70C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The state of the sea is very rough around the center. The central pressure of the deep depression is 1002 hPa.

Socotra island reported mean sea level pressure of 1007 hPa and surface wind of 26 knots at 1200 UTC, Sunday. The upper tropospheric ridge runs along 14n and is providing poleward out flow. However upper level divergence, low level convergence along with low level relative vorticity have remained same during past 12 hrs. The lower level convergence is maximum in the southwest sector. The sea area close to Somalia coast is colder and ocean thermal energy is less than 50 kj/cm2. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind is about 10-20 knots (low to moderate). As the system has already entered colder sea and interacting with the land surface, there is no possibility of further intensification. Most of the numerical weather prediction models suggest slow west-northwestward movement during next 24 hrs and gradually decreases. India Meteorological Department's dynamical statistical model also suggests gradual weakening of the system. Current forecast is based on consensus numerical weather prediction and dynamical statistical guidance and synoptic analysis.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 8.2N 50.2E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
24 HRS: 8.3N 49.4E - 25 knots (Depression)
Quoting 540. PensacolaDoug:


Holy cow! That must have been terrifying off the scale!

Serious sphincter factor.
LOL Doug... Never heard it put that way... But very accurate
Quoting 530. Sfloridacat5:


Interesting how the GFS forms a storm on the tail end of a front in the middle of the Atlantic. Then the storm just sits there and slowly dies over time. Too bad we can't get that in the Caribbean or GOM.

Are you having any issue running the GFS model? When I run the model it stops for some reason.
yes not only the gfs but other places on the web this morning..web must be having troubles today.
90W Dvorak numbers

2013NOV10 145700 3.2 988.2 +0.0 49.0 3.2 3.3 3.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -65.70 -65.74 UNIFRM N/A N/A 3.90 -136.81
98S.INVEST

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
12:47 PM WST November 10 2013
===========================================

A low pressure system near 3.0S 94.0E, which is well north of the Region, is showing signs of increased convection. Conditions conducive to development become slightly more favorable during the week. Even if the system does develop into a tropical cyclone, it is expected to move southwest and NOT enter the Western Region.
Quoting 538. daddyjames:
G'morning from Central OK,

Cool here, with the Artic front forming expected to chill us out on Tuesday. Temps in the 40's with wind chills in the 20's - brrrr!

It looks as if the current track of Haiyan may spare Vietnam the worst, with more of an impact on those in China. The fact that it did not appreciably strengthen is good.

Unfortunately, the pictures coming out of Eastern Samar confirm what was expected based on intensity estimates of Haiyan.

A couple of links,, and a plug, for most recent information.

Official Philippine government figures: NDRRMC

RAPPLER.COM has been particularly useful for providing reliable information relatively more quickly than some of the other media sources.

Their "What we know" list

And if you missed this previous post, it includes footage of Yolanda as it was impacting Giporlos in Eastern Samar. The winds are absolutely astounding.
Giporlos, Eastern Samar in ruins after Yolanda

I hope you all have a fantastic day. Thoughts and prayers (as well as more meaningful direct contributions) for those in the Philippines.

Count your blessings.
The Rappler.com interview was quite interesting. Despite the fact that he was not speaking very much English, the reporter seemed to be commenting on a certain amount of complacency in Guiuan's population, despite reports and warnings in the media and from PAGASA that this would be very bad - the worst this year or maybe even ever. People he spoke to afterwards seemed to be saying "we never expected anything as bad as this".

Guess people are people wherever they are. And let's get real. Aside from wx nuts like us, how many in any average population ever expect it to be this bad - before it happens? [sigh]
Quoting 548. HadesGodWyvern:
90W Dvorak numbers

2013NOV10 145700 3.2 988.2 +0.0 49.0 3.2 3.3 3.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -65.70 -65.74 UNIFRM N/A N/A 3.90 -136.81


Is organizing in a rapid pace and is also gaining latitude. It was almost in the Equator a couple of days ago.

Quoting 551. Tropicsweatherpr:


Is organizing in a rapid pace and is also gaining latitude. It was almost in the Equator a couple of days ago.

I really hope this stays south of the ravaged area. Enough.
Quoting 550. BahaHurican:
The Rappler.com interview was quite interesting. Despite the fact that he was not speaking very much English, the reporter seemed to be commenting on a certain amount of complacency in Guiuan's population, despite reports and warnings in the media and from PAGASA that this would be very bad - the worst this year or maybe even ever. People he spoke to afterwards seemed to be saying "we never expected anything as bad as this".

Guess people are people wherever they are. And let's get real. Aside from wx nuts like us, how many in any average population ever expect it to be this bad - before it happens? [sigh]


I would think it would be impossible to imagine winds like that, and their impact,unless you have been through it before.

BTW - he did catch the storm at its height. If you listen carefully (when the wind is at the worst) you hear him saying that it is 6:30(?) am.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Is organizing in a rapid pace and is also gaining latitude. It was almost in the Equator a couple of days ago.



Looks pretty potent right now.
This is a must read:

http://www.rappler.com/move-ph/issues/disasters/t yphoon-yolanda/43373-guiuan-eastern-samar-damage-p hotos


Doppler radar damaged

Guiuan is the site of a PAGASA weather station, where a newly-installed Doppler radar and other weather forecasting equipment are located.

In a January 10 report by SunStar Tacloban, the P450-million Doppler radar would be ready for operation "before the start of the typhoon season," according to Department of Science and Technology (DOST) Regional Director Edgardo Esperancilla. However, the radar was never operated, according to Roy Badilla of PAGASA.

Photos from the aerial survey show the radar tower but without the radar dome. (READ: PAGASA station struggles despite upgrades)


So if they had gotten that radar online as they were supposed to, we might have had imagery showing the storm's approach and more accurate confirmation of wind speeds and rain rates...
The big high up a notch at 1047 MB.
ooofh'

Brrrrrrrrrr
Quoting 557. hydrus:
The big high up a notch at 1047 MB.
Geez no storm is getting through that.That's why I have thrown the storm idea for the east coast out the window..
PAGASA is not concerned about this..?

Quoting 541. Patrap:
Happy 238th Birthday to the United States Marine Corps

Semper Fidelis
Thank goodness for you guys...... Makes me feel better knowing we have guys like the Marines.
First pictures from Guiuan, majority of the city has been completely destroyed. Remember, these guys faced the brunt of the 195mph winds even if Haiyan weakened before its second landfall.
Link
Link
Link
I just realized why we are not ready for snow just yet... 1. The trees are not finished losing their leaves yet. 2. It is still November 3. The average first snow date for Baltimore is Dec 14 and the first average snow date for DC is Dec 18.. Heck why don't i give a list of the first snow dates for the Mid-Atlantic cities.
Richmond VA- Dec 26
Philadelphia PA- Dec 18
NYC- Dec 15
Quoting 563. Climate175:
I just realized why we are not ready for snow just yet... 1. The trees are not finished losing their leaves yet. 2. It is still November 3. The average first snow date for Baltimore is Dec 14 and the first average snow date for DC is Dec 18.. Heck why don't i give a list of the first snow dates for the Mid-Atlantic cities.
Richmond VA- Dec 26
Philadelphia PA- Dec 18
NYC- Dec 15
90w might just be a ts when it reach the Philippines but remember than even them can be killers,Washi comes into mind hope they are preparing,Even a td can be deadly.Winnie comes to my mind.
The December pattern should be a bit more interesting...
Quoting 562. CybrTeddy:
First pictures from Guiuan, majority of the city has been completely destroyed. Remember, these guys faced the brunt of the 195mph winds even if Haiyan weakened before its second landfall.
Link
Link
Link
The second picture shows people running and waving there hands, trying to get the pilots attention.
the I-95 corridor from Providence, R.I. to Virginia typically waits until December to see their first plowable snowfall of the season. - Weather.com
Quoting 565. allancalderini:
90w might just be a ts when it reach the Philippines but remember than even them can be killers,Washi comes into mind hope they are preparing,Even a td can be deadly.Winnie comes to my mind.


Washi was a retired tropical storm even.
Quoting 565. allancalderini:
90w might just be a ts when it reach the Philippines but remember than even them can be killers,Washi comes into mind hope they are preparing,Even a td can be deadly.Winnie comes to my mind.
If they are hit, the misery will be incomprehensible. It will hamper rescue efforts and set back missions to give aid to the survivors.
Not Surprised Pittsburgh is gonna see snow around the 14th , since their average first snow date is Nov 15th.
Quoting 562. CybrTeddy:
First pictures from Guiuan, majority of the city has been completely destroyed. Remember, these guys faced the brunt of the 195mph winds even if Haiyan weakened before its second landfall.
Link
Link
Link
It surprise me they are still roofs in some houses.
Quoting 539. guygee:
I've seen the same from an F5 tornado that approached 0.5 mile wide. It went through many residential neighborhoods. Clean slabs were in the minority, most houses were left in a shattered state with maybe 1-2 walls standing or the top story gone. The amount and type of debris is a big variable on the resulting damage, so trying to assess wind-speed in this manner is unreliable.

It is an apples/oranges comparison. A small vortex can have strong winds moving from opposite directions. That creates a torque that a more uniform wind does not produce. Also, a tornado is declared to be F5 if there are any instances of F5 damage. The damage from a tornado can vary greatly. Then there is the far longer duration of a TC and larger areal extent. Just a silly comparison.
IMHO I think it is likely that the death toll is over 10,00, and for the survivors, there is literally nothing left. Just to make matters worse, we throw 90W into the mix, and even if it is just a tropical storm, it could be catastrophic for the now vulnerable Philippines. These people really are in need right now, so if there is anything you can do, please try.
Quoting 569. HadesGodWyvern:


Washi was a retired tropical storm even.
Yeah the Phillippines have been hit by the past two years with deadly storms between November and December Washi and Bopha and now Haiyan.This means three years in a row hope 2014 don`t continue the curse.
Quoting 570. hydrus:
If they are hit, the misery will be incomprehensible. It will hamper rescue efforts and set back missions to give aid to the survivors.
I also hope it weaken and pass north of the Philippines and it spare them,just a little bit of rain in this case can rise the devastation left by Haiyan.
Also another snow date could be Dec 5 if some agree with me.
90w .... here we go again..
Quoting 572. allancalderini:
It surprise me they are still roofs in some houses.
The roofs that have survived are likely fastened with screws as opposed to nails. The screws have much more holding power..As I found out in Charley. Almost all metal roofs with regular nails failed, while roofs screwed down were not ripped off.
It appears the misleading information implying that Haiyan had 147 mph winds at landfall originated with the AP. Newspapers around the US are repeating the story without the important 10-minute wind clarification or the conversion to 1-minute sustained winds.

So far most sites I've seen just repeat the report without assigning a SSHS designation, the way some Fox News reporters seem to have done earlier today...

I think the AP needs to fix that.
Quoting hydrus:
The roofs that have survived are likely fastened with screws as opposed to nails. The screws have much more holding power..As I found out in Charley. Almost all metal roofs with regular nails failed, while roofs screwed down were not ripped off.

Virtually all Galv Iron roofs that have been renewed here in the past 10 years have been replaced with steel beams with welded joints, galvanised purlins and the sheets screwed down with self-tapping screws.

It has become more cost effective, because of high prices of good quality wood, and the relative cheapness of steel.

Much stronger than wood/nails.

I wonder if the same applies there?
Quoting 565. allancalderini:
90w might just be a ts when it reach the Philippines but remember than even them can be killers,Washi comes into mind hope they are preparing,Even a td can be deadly.Winnie comes to my mind.


The current run of the GFS does not look particularly encouraging, for the Philippines



Or for Vietnam

New video on damage in Tacloban City (AFP)

Warning - Graphic Content

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DqK8snpE1RE
So I was reading a page of ST Haiyan and I found this.The Western Pacific Ocean Basin has been far more active than the Atlantic Hurricane Season this year. Haiyan is the fourth Category 5 storm in the Western Pacific this year. There was also a Category 5 storm in the Eastern Pacific this year.http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/11/07/supe r-typhoon-haiyan-philippines_n_4235250.html?utm_hp _ref=mostpopular Did someone found the mistake?;)
Quoting 579. BahaHurican:
It appears the misleading information implying that Haiyan had 147 mph winds at landfall originated with the AP. Newspapers around the US are repeating the story without the important 10-minute wind clarification or the conversion to 1-minute sustained winds.

So far most sites I've seen just repeat the report without assigning a SSHS designation, the way some Fox News reporters seem to have done earlier today...

I think the AP needs to fix that.


I have noticed that figure. I'm surprised how foolish and novice they sound when first they say the most powerful tropical cyclone to make landfall and then with 147 mph winds (etc., heard many differing figures)
Quoting 584. GatorWX:


I have noticed that figure. I'm surprised how foolish and novice they sound when first they say the most powerful tropical cyclone to make landfall and then say with 147 mph winds (etc., heard many differing figures)


A lot of people were saying that on here Friday and I told them the pics you are seeing where from outer edges of the typhoon not in the hardest hit areas. A reporter on CNN said that whole towns are gone and still people can't get into some of the hardest hit areas. The fear is the death toll will likely near 20,000 over the coming days as rescue workers reach the hardest hit areas.
Quoting 584. GatorWX:


I have noticed that figure. I'm surprised how foolish and novice they sound when first they say the most powerful tropical cyclone to make landfall and then say with 147 mph winds (etc., heard many differing figures)
Understandably so, I see where figures regarding death tolls and winds are mis-combogulated in disasters such as this.... I listen and read after day one knowing totals will change back and forth. But I do believe the death totals (sadly) will be very high, and higher than we are hearing now considering the conditions we are seeing.... Very sad, Very sad
Quoting 583. allancalderini:
So I was reading a page of ST Haiyan and I found this.The Western Pacific Ocean Basin has been far more active than the Atlantic Hurricane Season this year. Haiyan is the fourth Category 5 storm in the Western Pacific this year. There was also a Category 5 storm in the Eastern Pacific this year.http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/11/07/supe r-typhoon-haiyan-philippines_n_4235250.html?utm_hp _ref=mostpopular Did someone found the mistake?;)
At least the huffpost has a corrections page... still looking for one on the AP site... :o/
Quoting 586. PalmBeachWeather:
Understandably so, I see where figures regarding death tolls and winds are mis-combogulated in disasters such as this.... I listen and read after day one knowing totals will change back and forth. But I do believe the death totals (sadly) will be very high, and higher than we are hearing now considering the conditions we are seeing.... Very sad, Very sad


Easily 20 to 30 thousand. a reporter from CNN said rescue workers are having a hard time getting to the hardest hit areas. The fear is many coastal towns and villages are wiped out per CNN.
I'm surprised not a lot of people have commented about the looting situation going on in the Philippines. It's absolutely awful. I've seen reports of people destroying ATM machines and fighting each other over stolen food and supplies.
TCFA issued for 90W.

WTPN21 PGTW 101700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.2N 138.0E TO 9.6N 129.1E WITHIN
THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 101630Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 136.8E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.3N
140.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 136.8E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 101158Z METOP-A 89 GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MORE DEFINED LLCC. A 101200Z ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS AND
SOME ISOLATED 25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM KOROR INDICATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 10
KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 1006 MB AND A 24-HOUR SLP DECREASE OF 1.5 MB.
THE 10/12Z UPPER-AIR SOUNDING FROM KOROR SHOWS 20 TO 25 KNOT
GRADIENT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES IMPROVED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INTO A NARROW TUTT POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
(ALONG 10N LATITUDE) WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
111700Z.//

EF5 damage from Jarrell Tx. Most the homes in this small neighborhood where completely destroyed with nothing but the slab left.



18 wheeler shreaded by the tornado.
Winds supposed to reach 50 mph this afternoon! Already picking up! Maybe it will get the rest of the leaves of the trees.
593. VR46L
Haiyden

594. jpsb
Quoting 464. BahaHurican:
wish I knew how to screenshot the Google map page to show exactly where this is...
Get the free version of Screen Hunter. Works great.
Watts&Co. hit a new low this morning with a particularly despicable post about Haiyan having been over-hyped, based on a twisted interpretation of these numbers. (edit) They sent letters of complaint to the BBC etc. for 'inaccurate reporting'  of higher wind speeds.
I was going to risk losing my breakfast and have another look at that post, but their site seems to be offline. Probably just a temporary glitch, but it gave me the happy thought that 'Anonymous' had taken them down.


Quoting 579. BahaHurican:
It appears the misleading information implying that Haiyan had 147 mph winds at landfall originated with the AP. Newspapers around the US are repeating the story without the important 10-minute wind clarification or the conversion to 1-minute sustained winds.

So far most sites I've seen just repeat the report without assigning a SSHS designation, the way some Fox News reporters seem to have done earlier today...

I think the AP needs to fix that.

Quoting 588. StormTrackerScott:


Easily 20 to 30 thousand. a reporter from CNN said rescue workers are having a hard time getting to the hardest hit areas. The fear is many coastal towns and villages are wiped out per CNN.
Scott.... As I said. Many ,many more.. But would not make a guess at how many. Remember .. Even one death has a family, kids, mothers, ...So sad.
Quoting Ameister12:
I'm surprised not a lot of people have commented about the looting situation going on in the Philippines. It's absolutely awful. I've seen reports of people destroying ATM machines and fighting each other over stollen food and supplies. It's absolutely terrible.


I'm not condoning it, but the looting started with a need for food and medicines, and went on from there.

These are people that have lost absolutely EVERYTHING, including loved ones.
They see no real assistance coming in.
They are driven to absolute desperation.
Survival is a natural instinct.

I have no idea how I would behave under those circumstances.
Estimates, estimates..! Has anyone yet found a bonefide pressure or anemometer reading? How can Jeff Masters write in bold type "Haiyan had winds of 190 - 195 mph at landfall, making it the strongest tropical cyclone on record to make landfall in world history."

Data please?
Quoting 595. no1der:
Watts&Co. hit a new low this morning with a particularly despicable post about Haiyan having been over-hyped, based on a twisted interpretation of these numbers. Letters of complaint to the media for inaccurate reporting...
I was going to risk losing my breakfast and have another look at that post, but their site seems to be offline. Probably just a temporary glitch, but it gave me the happy thought that 'Anonymous' had taken them down.





Good... At least be factual and up front about what you are reporting.

No1der, no one trusts the media any more.
At day 2 since the typhoon's passage in the affected areas, they are going to be in need of a major air-lift of crucial supplies - a military air-lift. This should accomodate the immediate need for water,food & medical.Due to the sheer numbers of people involved in the aftermath,this is going to pose some significant obstacles in the days ahead.
Quoting 597. pottery:


I'm not condoning it, but the looting started with a need for food and medicines, and went on from there.

These are people that have lost absolutely EVERYTHING, including loved ones.
They see no real assistance coming in.
They are driven to absolute desperation.
Survival is a natural instinct.

I have no idea how I would behave under those circumstances.
Pottery... Right... Diapers, food, medicine... But don't show me videos of the HD 52" Sony TV being looted...Pissed me off to the max during one hurricane we all remember
Quoting 583. allancalderini:
So I was reading a page of ST Haiyan and I found this.The Western Pacific Ocean Basin has been far more active than the Atlantic Hurricane Season this year. Haiyan is the fourth Category 5 storm in the Western Pacific this year. There was also a Category 5 storm in the Eastern Pacific this year.http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/11/07/supe r-typhoon-haiyan-philippines_n_4235250.html?utm_hp _ref=mostpopular Did someone found the mistake?;)
Anybody wanting to see the depth of scientific ignorance out there need only read the comments in this huffpost article... there are pple over there saying the news reporters are wrong because they've been report KPH as MPH.... that climate scientists are misrepresenting info to make things seem more dire than they really are.... all this while not even having a CLUE that 10 minute winds are not 1 minute winds....

[sigh] If it wasn't so serious I'd be killing myself laughing...
Quoting 586. PalmBeachWeather:
Understandably so, I see where figures regarding death tolls and winds are mis-combogulated in disasters such as this.... I listen and read after day one knowing totals will change back and forth. But I do believe the death totals (sadly) will be very high, and higher than we are hearing now considering the conditions we are seeing.... Very sad, Very sad


I think the magnitude of this is just being realized. Perhaps the most powerful landfalling tropical cyclone in recorded history just directly affected over 275,000 people in cities and villages composed of mostly poorly built structures, poor drainage, antiquated infrastructure, ect. Although I do think the Philippines would be better equipped for something like this than Bangladesh or Burma, we've likely not realized the scope of total devastation along the entire coast. What I would point out with regarding this system is how fast the surge came in and afterwards retreated due to the forward speed and extreme intensity. Add 180 mph winds and you have well...
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Pottery... Right... Diapers, food, medicine... But don't show me videos of the HD 52" Sony TV being looted...Pissed me off to the max during one hurricane we all remember


Yeah, I understand and feel the same way.

But I just dont know what moves people to do that.
The GFS has another large and cold high pressure area at 240 hrs.
Quoting 597. pottery:


I'm not condoning it, but the looting started with a need for food and medicines, and went on from there.

These are people that have lost absolutely EVERYTHING, including loved ones.
They see no real assistance coming in.
They are driven to absolute desperation.
Survival is a natural instinct.

I have no idea how I would behave under those circumstances.

I agree. I don't think it's right, but there's nothing left for those people to do. The looters probably have families that are starving and sick and this is what they have to resort to, to keep their family from dying.

It's really heartbreaking.
Quoting 598. SewaneeWeather:
Estimates, estimates..! Has anyone yet found a bonefide pressure or anemometer reading? How can Jeff Masters write in bold type "Haiyan had winds of 190 - 195 mph at landfall, making it the strongest tropical cyclone on record to make landfall in world history."

Data please?

Not much if any data but a lot of photos and videos of what's left.
I'm sure that a lot of highly experienced bloggers on here will find it hard to find something worse than this and plenty of them have been through massive hurricanes more than one time.
Piles of matchwood on one hand and stone churches reduced to mountains of rubble.
Its not hard to speculate that this was a long way past damage at any understandable levels.
There's a lot more to come in yet from the other island's that were in the typhoons path.
Quoting 598. SewaneeWeather:
Estimates, estimates..! Has anyone yet found a bonefide pressure or anemometer reading? How can Jeff Masters write in bold type "Haiyan had winds of 190 - 195 mph at landfall, making it the strongest tropical cyclone on record to make landfall in world history."

Data please?


Dr. Masters can write that in bold because that's how it officially stands via JTWC. He's not pulling it out of his hat when he says that. It's like criticizing Dr. Masters over an NHC official estimate for a hurricane.

And you're expecting immediate data from cities that have just lost thousands of people? There are more immediate issues to deal with right now for these people. Data can wait.

From what I can tell anyways, any reliable anemometer and pressure stations were destroyed fairly early on in the storm. Wait until the cleanup begins and we may find some data from stormchasers on the ground.
Quoting 598. SewaneeWeather:
Estimates, estimates..! Has anyone yet found a bonefide pressure or anemometer reading? How can Jeff Masters write in bold type "Haiyan had winds of 190 - 195 mph at landfall, making it the strongest tropical cyclone on record to make landfall in world history."

Data please?


He states that due to the current "official" statistics we have. Until these are proven otherwise, that's what it is officially. He also explained how he came to that conclusion regarding 190-195 mph.
Quoting 604. pottery:


Yeah, I understand and feel the same way.

But I just dont know what moves people to do that.
Pot... There is a large group of people that take advantage of everything they can. (IE)I will be retiring from work in 10 days. One person tried to give me a work item worth over $300 as a retirement present which he stole thinking it was ok... I pissed him off but I said hell no. I am not bragging but I wish everyone was as honest as I am... It is freekin' scary .
Quoting 589. Ameister12:
I'm surprised not a lot of people have commented about the looting situation going on in the Philippines. It's absolutely awful. I've seen reports of people destroying ATM machines and fighting each other over stolen food and supplies.
Criminal, yes. But entirely understandable. When something catastrophic has happened--when familiar landscapes become suddenly unrecognizable, when the bodies of our neighbors are lying in the streets, when stores aren't open (and may not be open or stocked for weeks), when government is absent, when there's no police presence to impose order--it's frighteningly easy to panic. Society breaks down; civilization is relegated to the distant and hazy Time Before. Ordinarily good citizens see their friends, their family hoarding what little food or cash is left, and realize there'll be none left for them and theirs if they don't themselves join in. So they do. Mob rule takes over; violence becomes the norm. Thus it has always been; thus it will always be.

We humans like to believe we've been imbued from on high with some advanced level of moralistic behavior that separates us from pack animals. But as history has demonstrated a thousand times, that belief is a fantasy. A canard. It's a frail chimera held together by the thinnest of threads. And anything that causes major disruption obliterates those tenuous threads in an instant, and we become no different that starving wolves.

So perhaps that's why few are speaking of the ongoing looting: in our hearts, we know that we'd be forced to respond no differently if faced with the same.

It's just our nature...
There was a quote from a survivor, posted to @TyphoonHaiyan earlier this morning:
"I am a decent person. But if you have not eaten in 3 days you do shameful things to survive."
Quoting 606. Ameister12:

I agree. I don't think it's right, but there's nothing left for those people to do. The looters probably have families that at starving and sick and this is what they have to resort to, to keep their family from dying.

It's really heartbreaking.

Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Pot... There is a large group of people that take advantage of everything they can. (IE)I will be retiring from work in 10 days. One person tried to give me a work item worth over $300 as a retirement present which he stole thinking it was ok... I pissed him off but I said hell no. I am not bragging but I wish everyone was as honest as I am... It is freekin' scary .


Understood.

But what would you have done, if before he approached you, you had lost your house, members of your family, every single possession you had yesterday ?

As I said before, I have no idea what I would do in the shock of the moment.

And I honestly hope I never have to face that situation.
Quoting 606. Ameister12:

I agree. I don't think it's right, but there's nothing left for those people to do. The looters probably have families that at starving and sick and this is what they have to resort to, to keep their family from dying.

It's really heartbreaking.
Very well worded. We were fortunate during Charley. The National Guard, FPL, Law Enforcement, and Fire and Rescue teams were there almost immediately. Things would have been much worse if they were long in coming.
Quoting 611. Neapolitan:
Criminal, yes. But entirely understandable. When something catastrophic has happened--when familiar landscapes become suddenly unrecognizable, when the bodies of our neighbors are lying in the streets, when stores aren't open (and may not be open or stocked for weeks), when government is absent, when there's no police presence to impose order--it's frighteningly easy to panic. Society breaks down; civilization is relegated to the distant and hazy Time Before. Ordinarily good citizens see their friends, their family hoarding what little food or cash is left, and realize there'll be none left for them and theirs if they don't themselves join in. So they do. Mob rule takes over; violence becomes the norm. Thus it has always been; thus it will always be.

We humans like to believe we've been imbued from on high with some advanced level of moralistic behavior that separates us from pack animals. But as history has demonstrated a thousand times, that belief is a fantasy. A canard. It's a frail chimera held together by the thinnest of threads. And anything that causes major disruption obliterates those tenuous threads in an instant, and we become no different that starving wolves.

So perhaps that's why few are speaking of it: in our hearts, we know that we'd be forced to respond no differently if faced with the same.

It's just our nature...
A 52" is a necessity? As a stated in post 610.... (Going to go to Barnes & Nobles this afternoon and buy me a updated THESAURUS) Seems a few use it extensively
Quoting 601. PalmBeachWeather:
Pottery... Right... Diapers, food, medicine... But don't show me videos of the HD 52" Sony TV being looted...Pissed me off to the max during one hurricane we all remember
Said tv can be traded for other stuff. Or used to watch the next storm come in, provided you have a house left and power running to it.

:o/

People.
Quoting 613. pottery:


Understood.

But what would you have done, if before he approached you, you had lost your house, members of your family, every single possession you had yesterday ?

As I said before, I have no idea what I would do in the shock of the moment.

And I honestly hope I never have to face that situation.
I have had a taste of what they are going through. No power for 17 days in oppressive heat. Water was hard to come by first few days. More rain and very high humidity was stifling. Then Frances and Jeanne was the final blow for many.
Quoting 611. Neapolitan:
Criminal, yes. But entirely understandable. When something catastrophic has happened--when familiar landscapes become suddenly unrecognizable, when the bodies of our neighbors are lying in the streets, when stores aren't open (and may not be open or stocked for weeks), when government is absent, when there's no police presence to impose order--it's frighteningly easy to panic. Society breaks down; civilization is relegated to the distant and hazy Time Before. Ordinarily good citizens see their friends, their family hoarding what little food or cash is left, and realize there'll be none left for them and theirs if they don't themselves join in. So they do. Mob rule takes over; violence becomes the norm. Thus it has always been; thus it will always be.

We humans like to believe we've been imbued from on high with some advanced level of moralistic behavior that separates us from pack animals. But as history has demonstrated a thousand times, that belief is a fantasy. A canard. It's a frail chimera held together by the thinnest of threads. And anything that causes major disruption obliterates those tenuous threads in an instant, and we become no different that starving wolves.

So perhaps that's why few are speaking of the ongoing looting: in our hearts, we know that we'd be forced to respond no differently if faced with the same.

It's just our nature...
You say "OUR" nature... You seem to know "MY" nature" Speak for yourself....Not me.
Quoting 616. BahaHurican:
Said tv can be traded for other stuff. Or used to watch the next storm come in, provided you have a house left and power running to it.

:o/

People.
Been there
Quoting 617. hydrus:
I have had a taste of what they are going through. No power for 17 days in oppressive heat. Water was hard to come by first few days. More rain and very high humidity was stifling. Then Frances and Jeanne was the final blow for many.
hydrus.... 2004 Francis then Jeanne... Then Wilma 2005... The worst
Quoting 611. Neapolitan:
Criminal, yes. But entirely understandable. When something catastrophic has happened--when familiar landscapes become suddenly unrecognizable, when the bodies of our neighbors are lying in the streets, when stores aren't open (and may not be open or stocked for weeks), when government is absent, when there's no police presence to impose order--it's frighteningly easy to panic. Society breaks down; civilization is relegated to the distant and hazy Time Before. Ordinarily good citizens see their friends, their family hoarding what little food or cash is left, and realize there'll be none left for them and theirs if they don't themselves join in. So they do. Mob rule takes over; violence becomes the norm. Thus it has always been; thus it will always be.

We humans like to believe we've been imbued from on high with some advanced level of moralistic behavior that separates us from pack animals. But as history has demonstrated a thousand times, that belief is a fantasy. A canard. It's a frail chimera held together by the thinnest of threads. And anything that causes major disruption obliterates those tenuous threads in an instant, and we become no different that starving wolves.

So perhaps that's why few are speaking of the ongoing looting: in our hearts, we know that we'd be forced to respond no differently if faced with the same.

It's just our nature...
The terror of going through such a disaster can cause a lifetime of mental and physical anguish. Most people are honest, and would never loot or steal. If they knew who the necessities for survival belonged to, the would gladly reimburse them.
Quoting 620. PalmBeachWeather:
hydrus.... 2004 Francis then Jeanne... Then Wilma 2005... The worst
Bad stretch to be sure.
Quoting 621. hydrus:
The terror of going through such a disaster can cause a lifetime of mental and physical anguish. Most people are honest, and would never loot or steal. If they new who the necessities for survival belonged to, the would gladly reimburse them.


Before we are quick to judge from our armchairs, perhaps we should recognize the primary motivation of most people

From Tormented typhoon victims scour for food

Edward Gualberto accidentally stepped on bodies as he raided the wreckage of a home.

Wearing nothing but a pair of red basketball trousers, the father-of-four and village councillor apologized for his shabby appearance and for stealing from the dead.

"I am a decent person. But if you have not eaten in 3 days, you do shameful things to survive," Gualberto told AFP as he dug canned goods from the debris and flies swarmed over the bodies.

"We have no food, we need water and other things to survive."

After half a day's work, he had filled a bag with an assortment of essentials including packs of spaghetti, cans of beer, detergent, soap, canned goods, biscuits and candies.

"This typhoon has stripped us of our dignity... but I still have my family and I am thankful for that."



As well as the fact, that criminal organizations are always a problem


Nearby, pastry shop owner Emma Bermejo described the widespread looting as "anarchy,"

"There is no security personnel, relief goods are too slow to arrive. People are dirty, hungry and thirsty. A few more days and they will begin to kill each other," she said.

"This is shameful. We have been hit by a catastrophe and now our businesses are gone. Looted. I can understand if they take our food and water, they can have it. But TV sets? Washing machines?" (READ: Aquino asked to declare 'martial law' in Tacloban)

Philippine Red Cross chairman Richard Gordon described some of the looters as "mobsters," after one of his organisation's convoys was ransacked near Tacloban.
Quoting 618. PalmBeachWeather:
You say "OUR" nature... You seem to know "MY" nature" Speak for yourself....Not me.
I think it's cool to be able to say 'THIS is something I would never do.' The vast majority of us are fortunate enough to never experience the desperation that these people are experiencing. A lot of us blog here so we can be as prepared as possible because we never want to be in that situation. If anything, we want to be the ones fighting off the looters because we still have stuff worth fighting for, or benevolently sharing what we have with neighbours because we had the foresight to plan sufficiently.

Unfortunately life doesn't always turn out that way. I prefer to take the less arrogant route, which is to thank God for letting this cup [Haiyan type landfall] pass from me, and to pray for those who have to suffer through these circumstances. I really want to feel I would never loot for anything [I would rather starve, fate worse than death, etc etc]. But I pray I never, ever have to find out what I would do. And I know God is able to forgive those who are doing terrible things to survive in the Philippines tonight... even as we converse here.

I gotta run... have a 2 p.m. appointment. Ya'll stay safe out there.
627. CoolB
Quoting 618. PalmBeachWeather:
You say "OUR" nature... You seem to know "MY" nature" Speak for yourself....Not me.


There are 7 billion of you and me on this earth. Why get upset at what PalmBeachWeather wrote? Personally I think he hit the nail on the head.

Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
hydrus.... 2004 Francis then Jeanne... Then Wilma 2005... The worst

I have never had to face such Dread.

But I think it is wrong to compare what you experienced with what is currently going on in the Philipines.

Some basic differences....

The US is a large/rich country with massive back-up in every department.
The Philipines is a relatively small/poor Island Nation with very few available options right now.

In the US, assistance can be sent in to disaster areas very quickly.
Not so in the Philipines.

The American people are generally more able to access help/assistance/funds than Philipinos.

American people earn a vast amount of money every month, compared to the Philipinos.
After a disaster, many Americans can find an IBM and get some cash.
Not so, in the Philipines.

Philipino national services are virtually at a standstill right now NATIONWIDE. And we can assume that many of the local management officials are either dead, wounded or trying to survive as best they can.

Disaster is a Relative thing.
Quoting 618. PalmBeachWeather:
You say "OUR" nature... You seem to know "MY" nature" Speak for yourself....Not me.


The difference in looting and surviving are one takes what they dont need and the other takes to live.
Post 625, Baha.

Well said.

What a dreadful tragedy.
afternoon people

Quoting 633. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
afternoon people

Greetings..
Hurricane Preparation

SIGNS OF HURRICANE/Disaster RELATED STRESS:

* Difficulty communicating thoughts.
* Difficulty sleeping.
* Difficulty maintaining balance in their lives.
* Low threshold of frustration.
* Increased use of drugs/alcohol.
* Limited attention span.
* Poor work performance.
* Headaches/stomach problems.
* Tunnel vision/muffled hearing.
* Colds or flu-like symptoms.
* Disorientation or confusion.
* Difficulty concentrating.
* Reluctance to leave home.
* Depression, sadness.
* Feelings of hopelessness.
* Mood-swings and easy bouts of crying.
* Overwhelming guilt and self-doubt.
* Fear of crowds, strangers, or being alone.

EASING HURRICANE RELATED STRESS:

* Talk with someone about your feelings - anger, sorrow, and other emotions - even though it may be difficult.
* Seek help from professional counselors who deal with post-disaster stress.
* Do not hold yourself responsible for the disastrous event or be frustrated because you feel you cannot help directly in the rescue work.
* Take steps to promote your own physical and emotional healing by healthy eating, rest, exercise, relaxation, and meditation.
* Maintain a normal family and daily routine, limiting demanding responsibilities on yourself and your family.
* Spend time with family and friends.
* Participate in memorials.
* Use existing support groups of family, friends, and religious institutions.
* Ensure you are ready for future events by restocking your disaster supplies kits and updating your family disaster plans.
Quoting 591. Sfloridacat5:
EF5 damage from Jarrell Tx. Most the homes in this small neighborhood where completely destroyed with nothing but the slab left.



18 wheeler shreaded by the tornado.


I think there was at least one death in each home destroyed in Jarrell tornado, but I could be wrong.
Very beautiful place Guiuan..

Small Lagoon on Tubabao Island, Guiuan, Eastern Samar.
Date 13 March 2008, 12:34
Quoting 635. Patrap:
Hurricane Preparation

SIGNS OF HURRICANE/Disaster RELATED STRESS:

* Difficulty communicating thoughts.
* Difficulty sleeping.
* Difficulty maintaining balance in their lives.
* Low threshold of frustration.
* Increased use of drugs/alcohol.
* Limited attention span.
* Poor work performance.
* Headaches/stomach problems.
* Tunnel vision/muffled hearing.
* Colds or flu-like symptoms.
* Disorientation or confusion.
* Difficulty concentrating.
* Reluctance to leave home.
* Depression, sadness.
* Feelings of hopelessness.
* Mood-swings and easy bouts of crying.
* Overwhelming guilt and self-doubt.
* Fear of crowds, strangers, or being alone.

EASING HURRICANE RELATED STRESS:

* Talk with someone about your feelings - anger, sorrow, and other emotions - even though it may be difficult.
* Seek help from professional counselors who deal with post-disaster stress.
* Do not hold yourself responsible for the disastrous event or be frustrated because you feel you cannot help directly in the rescue work.
* Take steps to promote your own physical and emotional healing by healthy eating, rest, exercise, relaxation, and meditation.
* Maintain a normal family and daily routine, limiting demanding responsibilities on yourself and your family.
* Spend time with family and friends.
* Participate in memorials.
* Use existing support groups of family, friends, and religious institutions.
* Ensure you are ready for future events by restocking your disaster supplies kits and updating your family disaster plans.


too be honest I feel a few of those pat and I was not even there in body but in spirit alone

my misses even told me ya got to stop watching that stuff it takes the good right out of ya
As many as 10,000 people are believed dead in one Philippine city alone after one of the worst storms ever recorded unleashed ferocious winds and giant waves that washed away homes and schools. Corpses hung from tree branches and were scattered along sidewalks and among flattened buildings, while looters raided grocery stores and gas stations in search of food, fuel and water.

Officials projected the death toll could climb even higher when emergency crews reach areas cut off by flooding and landslides. Even in the disaster-prone Philippines, which regularly contends with earthquakes, volcanoes and tropical cyclones, Typhoon Haiyan appears to be the deadliest natural disaster on record. (AP)
are we all forgetting the chaos after Katrina? or how about the miles and miles of destruction that is still not cleaned up entirely from that storm.
While I can't condone looting, I do understand it.
those people are in a fight for their very lives right now, one does what one needs to to survive
Quoting hydrus:
Very beautiful place Guiuan..

Small Lagoon on Tubabao Island, Guiuan, Eastern Samar.
Date 13 March 2008, 12:34

Nice.
I wonder what it looks like today ?
Quoting 641. pottery:

Nice.
I wonder what it looks like today ?
not like that
Saw this from a reporter on Twitter...



Btw, if you're acting like Americans are so perfect enough to not do bad stuff to survive aftermath of a disaster, you forgot what happened in New Orleans after Katrina...

I suggest y'all to watch Inside Hurricane Katrina by National Geographic. That's what we've been watching last few atmospheric sciences classes. The aftermath was horrible to watch with 100,000 people causing chaos waiting for food and water that didn't come for days.
Quoting 638. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


too be honest I feel a few of those pat and I was not even there in body but in spirit alone

my misses even told me ya got to stop watching that stuff it takes the good right out of ya
I sent a post to you last night stating that I did not even want to see Guiuan or East Samar because it would make me sick....it did...to be expected from many folks.
Quoting 639. sunlinepr:
As many as 10,000 people are believed dead in one Philippine city alone after one of the worst storms ever recorded unleashed ferocious winds and giant waves that washed away homes and schools. Corpses hung from tree branches and were scattered along sidewalks and among flattened buildings, while looters raided grocery stores and gas stations in search of food, fuel and water.

Officials projected the death toll could climb even higher when emergency crews reach areas cut off by flooding and landslides. Even in the disaster-prone Philippines, which regularly contends with earthquakes, volcanoes and tropical cyclones, Typhoon Haiyan appears to be the deadliest natural disaster on record. (AP)
img src="http://l2.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/oTjnorofsKO 73UCF
pZSiQQ--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7Zmk9ZmlsbDtoPTYxNjtweW9m Zj0wO3E9NzU7dz05MjQ-/http://l.yimg.com/os/publish- images/news/2013-11-10/721e1f20-bf0e-416b-8b9e-00d a2a7403a5_AP105577603447.jpg" style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px;">


OMG, those pictures are unbelievable....
Quoting 641. pottery:

Nice.
I wonder what it looks like today ?
May not even exist today.
Philippines Doppler radar is destroyed near Guiuan.

Quoting pottery:

I have never had to face such Dread.

But I think it is wrong to compare what you experienced with what is currently going on in the Philipines.

Some basic differences....

The US is a large/rich country with massive back-up in every department.
The Philipines is a relatively small/poor Island Nation with very few available options right now.

In the US, assistance can be sent in to disaster areas very quickly.
Not so in the Philipines.

The American people are generally more able to access help/assistance/funds than Philipinos.

American people earn a vast amount of money every month, compared to the Philipinos.
After a disaster, many Americans can find an IBM and get some cash.
Not so, in the Philipines.

Philipino national services are virtually at a standstill right now NATIONWIDE. And we can assume that many of the local management officials are either dead, wounded or trying to survive as best they can.

Disaster is a Relative thing.

Unfortunately, I vastly overestimated the improvement in the Philippine government as headed by Benigno Aquino. In a statement issused today he said:

"With other rampant looting being reported, President Benigno Aquino III said Sunday that he was considering declaring a state of emergency or martial law in Tacloban, as city officials have proposed. The national disaster agency can recommend such a measure if the local government is unable to carry out its functions, Aquino said."

This after a statement in the same article:

"A massive relief operation was underway, but the Philippine National Red Cross said its efforts were being hampered by looters, including some who attacked trucks of food and other relief supplies the agency was shipping Sunday from the southern port city of Davao to Tacloban."

AP News Link

He's considering a declaration of a state of emergency? This should have been done before the storm even made landfall. The United States has provided helicopters and training for Philippine Army rapid reaction forces for just such a disaster - where are they? Whatever you do, don't send money to the Philippines to anyone but the Red Cross, and make sure it's really the Red Cross. There are already sites being set up by Filipino scammers with links to the government appealing for money for "relief". The people will never see this money. I was really hoping Aquino was an efficient and honest President. So much for that idea. :-)


Katrina



Sandy



Andrew
Plus, there is an active (although relatively low level) rebellion in that region. So, there are some elements of the population that are motivated to ensure that the current government "fails". And this certainly complicates relief efforts.

Communist Party of Philippines launches mobilization to assist super typhoon victims

The CPP said that among the areas which were devastated by the strong winds are revolutionary base areas which are within the scope of authority of the provisional revolutionary government, and in the areas of operation of the New People's Army and other revolutionary mass organizations.

PH gov't, NDFP urged to declare ceasefire in typhoon-ravaged areas

MANILA, Philippines - Bayan Muna Rep, Carlos Isagani Zarate is calling for a temporary suspension of fighting between the military and the New People's Army in Leyte and Samar provinces following the wide swath of devastation left by typhoon "Yolanda".
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Philippines Doppler radar is destroyed near Guiuan.


It had never been completed or commissioned, apparently.
Quoting 648. Bluestorm5:
Philippines Doppler radar is destroyed near Guiuan.

Looks like it would have been safe shelter from wind and surge if people were able to access the building.
A survivor of the Haiyan put the situation in perspective. She said "it is worse than hell."

Quoting 651. daddyjames:
Plus, there is an active (although relatively low level) rebellion that is active in that region. So, there are some elements of the population that are motivated to ensure that the current government "fails". And this certainly complicates relief efforts.

Have I seen that tactic somewhere closer to home recently? Ooooops, shouldn't have mentioned that. Off topic. Shame, shame.
Quoting WXColorado:
are we all forgetting the chaos after Katrina? or how about the miles and miles of destruction that is still not cleaned up entirely from that storm.
While I can't condone looting, I do understand it.
those people are in a fight for their very lives right now, one does what one needs to to survive

It's more than that. Armed thugs are attacking Red Cross food convoys, stealing not just the food, but the trucks themselves. No one starves to death after 2 days. I understand the idea of breaking into a store and stealing things like water, which is hard to come by. Just like after Katrina in New Orleans, a complete breakdown in social order brings out the worst in some people, and leaves the weak to be preyed upon by the strong. The type of looting being reported cannot be condoned under any circumstances. The Philippine Army and National police should have been on scene in force before landfall. It's not like they had no warning. Once again, the corruption and inefficiencies of the Philippine government are being exposed.
Quoting 655. Xandra:
How Strong Is Super Typhoon Haiyan? Compare It to This Pic of Katrina

Katrina


Haiyan
if a storm of haiyan intensity was to hit Orleans iam afraid Orleans would not exist no more
Quoting 656. bappit:

Have I seen that tactic somewhere closer to home recently? Ooooops, shouldn't have mentioned that. Off topic. Shame, shame.


Perhaps off topic, but I would agree with your assessment.
Quoting 654. unknowncomic:
A survivor of the Haiyan put the situation in perspective. She said "it is worse than hell."

If there is a devil, i am sure he is enjoying the suffering and carnage.
Quoting 658. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
if a storm of haiyan intensity was to hit Orleans iam afraid Orleans would not exists no more
I do not believe there is a city that could withstand such a force. Didnt I say that I am glad we had a slow season..?...affirmative.
I think he misused chimera.

Edit: PBW, get Webster's Synonym Dictionary if you do go that route.
well now we all have learned a great lesson..IF a cat-5 is heading your way...get OUT...dont hunker down and try to live thru it.....if you do..even though maybe..you and your family survive..the aftermath is horrific..a cat-5 is hell..just ask the survivors over there...
It was like a tornado....

Quoting daddyjames:
Plus, there is an active (although relatively low level) rebellion in that region. So, there are some elements of the population that are motivated to ensure that the current government "fails". And this certainly complicates relief efforts.

Communist Party of Philippines launches mobilization to assist super typhoon victims

The CPP said that among the areas which were devastated by the strong winds are revolutionary base areas which are within the scope of authority of the provisional revolutionary government, and in the areas of operation of the New People's Army and other revolutionary mass organizations.

PH gov't, NDFP urged to declare ceasefire in typhoon-ravaged areas

MANILA, Philippines - Bayan Muna Rep, Carlos Isagani Zarate is calling for a temporary suspension of fighting between the military and the New People's Army in Leyte and Samar provinces following the wide swath of devastation left by typhoon "Yolanda".

Indeed, this is a much more complicated effort than a normal disaster. The NPA has already mobilized (unlike the legitimate Philippine Army), and they are the ones stealing incoming supplies and passing them out in the name of the CPP. Without a pitched battle between the NPA and the Philippine Army, I don't see how the government can do anything but send in supplies and essentially turn them over to the Communists.
WIKI-History

Guiuan is widely known for two significant events in history 423 years apart. In 1521, Ferdinand Magellan first European to set foot on Philippine soil in Homonhon on his way to discover the Philippines for the Western World. In 1944, the American Forces landed on the island of Suluan where they fought their first battle in the Philippine territory three days before Gen. Mac Arthur stormed the beaches of Leyte.

The name of the town originated from its geographical location. The first settlers named the town “Guibang” when they discovered a sharp break in the mountain range (Tenigbang – partly chiseled off) which screens the town from the Pacific Ocean in the East. Subsequently, settlers modified its name to Guiuan.

The occurrence of World War II shook the town and people moved to the mountains to find comfort. On June 28, 1943, several Japanese soldiers set foot on Guiuan soil. Not as fearful and brutal as they were thought of by the local populace, a cordial relation soon existed between the conquered and the conquerors. Evacuees came down from the mountains and resumed a normal urban life.

Except for a few killings of suspected traitors by both Japanese, Filipino soldiers and local guerillas, not a drop of blood was shed needlessly. This made Guiuan one of the few places in the islands where World War II did not leave so many tragic memories.

The first sign of liberation of the town came on November 27, 1944, when a US Navy submarine chaser steamed the harbor for reconnaissance duty. On December 1, 1944, a fleet of LCTs, Liberty ships and barges poured into the Guiuan Bay to unload machines that was to transform Guiuan into one of the biggest Naval Base in the Far East that time.

In 1952, the sitios of Talisay, Bagambang, Calamrisan, Lo-ok and Barawalti, belonging to Barrio Tubabao, were separated and created into the barrio of Trinidad.[4]

On November 10, 1978, Proclamation No. 1801 was issued declaring Guiuan as a Tourist Zone and Marine Reserve under the administration and control of the Philippine Tourism Authority (PTA).

On November 8, 2013, the city suffered heavy damage and numerous casualties as it was hit by the eye of supertyphoon Haiyan (Philippine name Yolanda) with peak winds near 350 km per hour.
Quoting 658. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
if a storm of haiyan intensity was to hit Orleans iam afraid Orleans would not exist no more
Or any place in the US
Not in English.... But has some crude scenes...

well looks like the USA has survived another tropical system season..hope next year is the same...its maybe fun to track and talk about these storms but they are killers and home destroyers huh..no one needs to go thru what they bring..geez the pics being posted are horrible...maybe 6 months from now those people will STILL be suffering the aftermath...geez...no words can fully describe what those poor people are going thru now....medical is probably crushed there,hospital wise..hope the red cross etc can get in to help..
Here's the before picture of that Doppler radar destroyed in Haiyan that I show few posts ago.

Quoting 660. hydrus:
If there is a devil, i am sure he is enjoying the suffering and carnage.
Are you speaking of my ex hydrus?.. didn't know you were aware of him. LOL
Quoting 657. sar2401:

It's more than that. Armed thugs are attacking Red Cross food convoys, stealing not just the food, but the trucks themselves. No one starves to death after 2 days. I understand the idea of breaking into a store and stealing things like water, which is hard to come by. Just like after Katrina in New Orleans, a complete breakdown in social order brings out the worst in some people, and leaves the weak to be preyed upon by the strong. The type of looting being reported cannot be condoned under any circumstances. The Philippine Army and National police should have been on scene in force before landfall. It's not like they had no warning. Once again, the corruption and inefficiencies of the Philippine government are being exposed.


They were - two members of the Air Force were killed in the storm surge. The mayor of Tacloban was rescued off his own roof. Your outrage is understandable given the devastation, but misplaced - again, given the level of devastation.
Why do some of you all type like Americans are spoiled brats?.Have you all seen the documentary of what happened after Katrina?.People were looting and fighting for survival and trying to find clean water.Yes the government eventually came but in the mean time people were fighting to survive.Yes we know the Philippines are a poor country yes we know the government is corrupt over there as well and doesn't have all the necessary supplies for their people.And they will have to suffer for weeks and months to come after this tragic event.
Quoting sar2401:

It's more than that. Armed thugs are attacking Red Cross food convoys, stealing not just the food, but the trucks themselves. No one starves to death after 2 days. I understand the idea of breaking into a store and stealing things like water, which is hard to come by. Just like after Katrina in New Orleans, a complete breakdown in social order brings out the worst in some people, and leaves the weak to be preyed upon by the strong. The type of looting being reported cannot be condoned under any circumstances. The Philippine Army and National police should have been on scene in force before landfall. It's not like they had no warning. Once again, the corruption and inefficiencies of the Philippine government are being exposed.


So you are saying that the looting in New Orleans exposed the corruption and inefficiencies of the American Government at the time ?
Or does that only apply to 'foriegn' places?

Your comment is smug and self gratifying.
Disaster such as this are terrible, and there are always people who find ways to make political mileage out of them.
Quoting 665. sar2401:

Indeed, this is a much more complicated effort than a normal disaster. The NPA has already mobilized (unlike the legitimate Philippine Army), and they are the ones stealing incoming supplies and passing them out in the name of the CPP. Without a pitched battle between the NPA and the Philippine Army, I don't see how the government can do anything but send in supplies and essentially turn them over to the Communists.


It certainly makes it understandable why relief agencies are having difficulty, given that this must be accounted for - until there is a formal agreement to suspend hostilities.
Quoting 671. PalmBeachWeather:
Are you speaking of my ex hydrus?.. didn't know you were aware of him. LOL


Nah, he was talking about my ex . . . ;)
All I'm saying is that corruption and society collapse can happen anywhere and any time no matter where it is or what type of government is in place.
Quoting 655. Xandra:
How Strong Is Super Typhoon Haiyan? Compare It to This Pic of Katrina

Katrina


Haiyan


Can't use cloud tops to compare Western Pacific and Atlantic Tropical Cyclone.
Quoting washingtonian115:
All I'm saying is that corruption and society collapse can happen anywhere and any time no matter where it is or what type of government is in place.

True.
The Weather Channel just aired Jim Edds' video from Tacloban in the height of the storm. Those winds are absolutely insane. Hopefully they interview him later.
Quoting 657. sar2401:

The Philippine Army and National police should have been on scene in force before landfall. .


This is always a debate in the emergency response community. Do you put your first responders and assets at high risk by putting them directly in the path of these storms. I

Quoting 678. washingtonian115:
All I'm saying is that corruption and society collapse can happen anywhere and any time no matter where it is or what type of government is in place.
Power tends to corrupt, absolute power corrupts absolutely...Lord Acton I believe..
Quoting GatorWX:


If you look at the map, you can see that the Guiuan Peninsula looks like a small scale version of Florida, with Guiuan itself located about when Miami is located in Florida. Imagine for a moment this storm would have hit Miami instead of Guiuan. I suspect we would be better prepared to send in relief, but what would the situation be like on the ground? I hope Florida and Federal government is taking notes, because it's just a matter of time before another storm like this hits a highly populated urban area in the US that's barely under civil control on a daily basis.
Quoting 678. washingtonian115:
All I'm saying is that corruption and society collapse can happen anywhere and any time no matter where it is or what type of government is in place.


True, and it will keep on happening whenever you have such a catastrophic event.... Even in iron dictatorships
You never put your rescuers in the position of having to be rescued (at best) or killed.
I wonder what the design spec for windspeed is for these units? 
It hadn't been finished yet, but the 'after' photo seems to show a substantially complete installation, and even bits of the dome. How far into Haiyan would it have survived?
Quoting 670. Bluestorm5:
Here's the before picture of that Doppler radar destroyed in Haiyan that I show few posts ago.


Quoting 675. pottery:


So you are saying that the looting in New Orleans exposed the corruption and inefficiencies of the American Government at the time ?
Or does that only apply to 'foriegn' places?

Your comment is smug and self gratifying.
Disaster such as this are terrible, and there are always people who find ways to make political mileage out of them.
My observations... I was a volunteer working in Miami in 1992 after Andrew destroyed much of the area... Looters, Thieves, Aholes, were preying on people that were desperately trying to get their lives back to normal, or as much as they could... Chainsaws for $2000, A case of water for $30. It's a disgrace and an embarrassment to the human race...I will never get it. I hope when I am gone I am not included in history that I was a member of that low life group of people...
Quoting 688. PalmBeachWeather:
My observations... I was a volunteer working in Miami in 1992 after Andrew destroyed much of the area... Looters, Thieves, Aholes, were preying on people that desperate trying to get their lives back to normal, or as much as they could... Chainsaws for $2000, A case of water for $30. It's a disgrace and an embarrassment to the human race...I will never get it. I hope when I am gone I am not included in history that I was a member of that low life group of people...


They were true believers that "the market" is best for everything.

I was there too . . .
Quoting 681. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Weather Channel just aired Jim Edds' video from Tacloban in the height of the storm. Those winds are absolutely insane. Hopefully they interview him later.
Is it one of those Youtube videos or a new one TWC brought?
Quoting 685. sunlinepr:


True, and it will keep on happening whenever you have such a catastrophic event.... Even in iron dictatorships


If you think youre gonna die if you dont get food or water, getting killed isnt a deterrent.
Looting After a Hurricane
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Hurricane Sandy has battered the East Coast. In New York City, 375,000 people were ordered to evacuate . Public schools are closed, the transit system shut down, businesses shuttered.

Sandy has been called a "super storm" because it has gobbled up other storm systems along the Atlantic seaboard, creating a storm swath visible from the space station . While many have made preparations to leave, I can only imagine some people are taking a different tact; they aren't preparing to leave, they're preparing to loot. With arguably millions of dollars of merchandise relatively unprotected (except for gale force winds, rain, flooding, tidal surges, etc.), some may conclude the time is ripe for a little shopping.

Looting has become part and parcel of large storms. I remember the stories that came out after Hurricane Katrina of people unabashedly looting stores right in front of National Guardsmen. I also remember seeing video of people wading out in thigh-high floodwaters with armloads of clothing and trashcans full of goods. The collective sentiment of the looters at the time appeared to be all that stuff was up for grabs because of the emergency. Sociologists call this a breakdown in the social order.

I wonder how much of a breakdown in the social order will occur over this latest storm. According to stories I saw just starting to percolate on some Internet sites, people were already tweeting their plans to loot. It wouldn't be the first time. Twitter appears to have been used to coordinate looting in England , even without the cover of a natural disaster. In the U.S., this activity of coordinated, multiple-participant theft is called flash mob robbery or flash rob for short. The tactic is to make sure enough people show up to overwhelm whatever security is on hand or to cause a limited, targeted breakdown in the social order -- long enough for you to take whatever you can.

Interestingly, such a breakdown in the social order did not occur after the Japanese tsunami in 2011. According to one story, people lined up in front of stores "patiently standing" for hours and "despite the line's length everyone remained calm and polite." The juxtaposition of one group of people standing quietly, calm and polite vs. another group of people wracking havoc and grabbing whatever they could is startling and, frankly, disturbing.

As concerning as it is to view the lawlessness and looting that sometimes occurs after a natural disaster, it is even more concerning to realize this kind of activity no longer requires a natural disaster; it merely requires enough people of like mind to connect via social media and decide to take what someone else has.

When I was growing up, I was taught it was wrong to take what didn't belong to me. Period. As I got older, I understood the dilemma of being hungry and stealing bread. But the vast majority of looting I've seen over the past decade since Katrina doesn't seem to me to be about bread. It's about using a breakdown in the social order for personal enrichment at the expense of others.

There are always a plethora of excuses and rationales for the looting after a natural disaster. If it's for bread, I get that. If it's for a flat screen TV or designer jeans or the latest sneakers, I don't. If you overlook a group of people trashing someone else's property because they can, what will you say if the next person they target is you?

Some may look askew at the calm and patiently-waiting Japanese, thinking them foolish for not taking advantage of an opportunity for some personal enrichment. I don't think so. When their society was stretched and stressed by a natural disaster, they didn't turn on each other, they turned to each other. When we don't find a way do the same, we create our own disaster.

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Quoting 682. airmet3:


This is always a debate in the emergency response community. Do you put your first responders and assets at high risk by putting them directly in the path of these storms. I

Having them ready is logical, putting them in the path of a supertyphoon is absurd .
Quoting 689. daddyjames:


They were true believers that "the market" is best for everything.

I was there too . . .

Sounds like a highly efficient market.
Quoting 689. daddyjames:


They were true believers that "the market" is best for everything.

I was there too . . .
daddy.....Maybe we crossed paths.... Tamiami Airport here.
Quoting 690. Bluestorm5:
Is it one of those Youtube videos or a new one TWC brought?


Link
in fact, there seems to have been a concerted effort to ensure that the Philippines government would fail, even before the disaster unfolded.

Philippine government sites hacked by Anonymous in support of “million mask march” movement

Website of Philippines Disaster Information Project Hacked, Visitors Led to Adult Site
Landfall of Haiyan in Vietnam at 65kts.

31W HAIYAN 131110 1800 20.5N 107.3E WPAC 65 974
ever since the storm hit I've been trying to find the right words to sum this tragedy up... I can't. I want to cry for the Filipino people and I'm not a person who ever feels that way.

I have several long-time friends who live in Tacloban, when I messaged them about Haiyan they said "we've dealt with storms before, we're riding this one out". Haven't heard anything since.
Are you kidding me?? This has to be a joke
Quoting 701. stormchaser19:
Are you kidding me?? This has to be a joke
Unfortunately..no.
Quoting pottery:


So you are saying that the looting in New Orleans exposed the corruption and inefficiencies of the American Government at the time ?
Or does that only apply to 'foriegn' places?

Your comment is smug and self gratifying.
Disaster such as this are terrible, and there are always people who find ways to make political mileage out of them.

Of course that's what I'm saying. NOPD was already known as one of the most corrupt and inefficient in the US. The State of Louisiana was a total loss as to how to deal with this disaster. FEMA was a joke. I was on a FEMA Urban Search and Rescue Team at the time, and we spent three days sitting around a hanger at McClellan AFB waiting to be dispatched because FEMA couldn't find enough armed security to send with us, and those of us who were peace officers were not allowed to be armed. There was the same type of looting in New Orleans that we're now seeing in the Philippines, only this time it's being aided and abetted by a revolutionary Communist armed force that's making it harder, if not impossible for even a well-organized relief effort to take place. For all I know, the Communist revolutionary provisional government may be doing a better job that the "legitimate" Philippine government.

We were finally dispatched to the Mississippi coast, Waveland area exactly, and the damage was many times worse than New Orleans. There was no looting at all, but that's because the Mississippi was normally under good civil control, whereas New Orleans lived on the edge of chaos any day of the week.

Contrary to your assertion, I am not being smug. I've seen a disaster of comparable proportions, but with a different cultural, social, and political system. I am not criticizing the Filipino people, just the political and economic system they are forced to endure.
704. MahFL
Now they say 10,000 or more people could have died. Last I heard it was 1200 :(.

Why not included in WUmap?
Quoting 696. PalmBeachWeather:
daddy.....Maybe we crossed paths.... Tamiami Airport here.


I was in the North Miami region, helping to clear debris (trees) from neighborhood roads - not part of the organized effort, but more of helping friends.

You may have run into my pop, although he was assigned to Homestead as part of the Fed response (when it finally got into gear).

Edit: Catch you all later, gotta run.
Quoting sar2401:

Of course that's what I'm saying. NOPD was already known as one of the most corrupt and inefficient in the US. The State of Louisiana was a total loss as to how to deal with this disaster. FEMA was a joke. I was on a FEMA Urban Search and Rescue Team at the time, and we spent three days sitting around a hanger at McClellan AFB waiting to be dispatched because FEMA couldn't find enough armed security to send with us, and those of us who were peace officers were not allowed to be armed. There was the same type of looting in New Orleans that we're now seeing in the Philippines, only this time it's being aided and abetted by a revolutionary Communist armed force that's making it harder, if not impossible for even a well-organized relief effort to take place. For all I know, the Communist revolutionary provisional government may be doing a better job that the "legitimate" Philippine government.

We were finally dispatched to the Mississippi coast, Waveland area exactly, and the damage was many times worse than New Orleans. There was no looting at all, but that's because the Mississippi was normally under good civil control, whereas New Orleans lived on the edge of chaos any day of the week.

Contrary to your assertion, I am not being smug. I've seen a disaster of comparable proportions, but with a different cultural, social, and political system. I am not criticizing the Filipino people, just the political and economic system they are forced to endure.

OK, thanks for that.

It's easy to misread things at times like these.
And easy to to become angry.
My apologies.
Quoting 700. ExumaMET:
ever since the storm hit I've been trying to find the right words to sum this tragedy up... I can't. I want to cry for the Filipino people and I'm not a person who ever feels that way.

I have several long-time friends who live in Tacloban, when I messaged them about Haiyan they said "we've dealt with storms before, we're riding this one out". Haven't heard anything since.
I still have a hard time figuring out why people do not evacuate coastal areas subject to storm surge. It has been said over and over again for decades, if not centuries, that survival chances are virtually nil at the or near the coast. The " We have rode other storms out " excuse is just a step above suicide.
Partial answer:
"The tower, made of thin fiberglass plates bolted together, can withstand winds of up to 450 kilometers per hour"
http://technology.inquirer.net/7903/doppler-radar s-using-new-tech-ready-by-march

The Guiuan tower doesn't seem to show any major damage, but the dome tore off at some unknown windspeed.
Quoting 687. no1der:
I wonder what the design spec for windspeed is for these units? 
It hadn't been finished yet, but the 'after' photo seems to show a substantially complete installation, and even bits of the dome. How far into Haiyan would it have survived?

So, according to the Looting article, we could experience non catastrophic looting events....


All that is needed is

..........merely requires enough people of like mind to connect via social media and decide to take what someone else has.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
The JTC has issued a tropical storm formation alert for a disturbance far southeast of the Philippines. The remarkable thing is the mention of circulation since this disturbance is located by them between 4 and 9 degrees north. Is this a record southerly position for a cyclonic formation in the northern hemisphere?
Quoting airmet3:


This is always a debate in the emergency response community. Do you put your first responders and assets at high risk by putting them directly in the path of these storms. I


Big difference between first responders, as in SAR and medical teams, and the army and the police. When you raised your hand in the military or police, one of the things you swore was to give up your life, if need be, in the defense of citizens and your country. With the amount of warning on this storm, it wouldn't have been difficult to position a rapid reaction force and helicopters (both paid for y the US, I might add) just ourside the storm area, and respond with helicopter inertions when the strom had passed. The strom was moving at 40 mph, so we're talking a bout less than 10 hours before it would have been an acceptable risk to send in the Army and national police. The Communist Revolutionary Provisional Government evacuated and returned with the people and, from my contacts over there, they are the ones who are hijacking Red Cross trucks and then distributing supplies to the people, rather than stealing them like the government does on a routine basis. This is a much more complicated rescue and recovery effort than after a storm in a country which does not have the affected area involved in an active military revolution.
Quoting 713. sar2401:

Big difference between first responders, as in SAR and medical teams, and the army and the police. When you raised your hand in the military or police, one of the things you swore was to give up your life, if need be, in the defense of citizens and your country. With the amount of warning on this storm, it wouldn't have been difficult to position a rapid reaction force and helicopters (both paid for y the US, I might add) just ourside the storm area, and respond with helicopter inertions when the strom had passed. The strom was moving at 40 mph, so we're talking a bout less than 10 hours before it would have been an acceptable risk to send in the Army and national police. The Communist Revolutionary Provisional Government evacuated and returned with the people and, from my contacts over there, they are the ones who are hijacking Red Cross trucks and then distributing supplies to the people, rather than stealing them like the government does on a routine basis. This is a much more complicated rescue and recovery effort than after a storm in a country which does not have the affected area involved in an active military revolution.

I certainly don't know enough to comment directly on this situation other than to speculate. I am sure you feel the same way.
Quoting 657. sar2401:

It's more than that. Armed thugs are attacking Red Cross food convoys, stealing not just the food, but the trucks themselves. No one starves to death after 2 days. I understand the idea of breaking into a store and stealing things like water, which is hard to come by. Just like after Katrina in New Orleans, a complete breakdown in social order brings out the worst in some people, and leaves the weak to be preyed upon by the strong. The type of looting being reported cannot be condoned under any circumstances. The Philippine Army and National police should have been on scene in force before landfall. It's not like they had no warning. Once again, the corruption and inefficiencies of the Philippine government are being exposed.
These people [in bold] were being described not as looters but as bandits by some aid workers. It seems they are seizing the goods as a means to make money and achieve power in this desperate situation.

Earlier we were talking about how most people just wouldn't take what they didn't desperately need. Unfortunately there are always the scavenging hyenas of any disaster, the ones who see their own survival as a sign that they should take what is not theirs and cause pain to those they can overpower. Such people will take advantage of any breakdown in order and civilization to "get ahead".

Quoting 663. LargoFl:
well now we all have learned a great lesson..IF a cat-5 is heading your way...get OUT...dont hunker down and try to live thru it.....if you do..even though maybe..you and your family survive..the aftermath is horrific..a cat-5 is hell..just ask the survivors over there...
This is what Andrew's survivors have been saying for 20 years.

Quoting 708. hydrus:
I still have a hard time figuring out why people do not evacuate coastal areas subject to storm surge. It has been said over and over again for decades, if not centuries, that survival chances are virtually nil at the or near the coast. The " We have rode other storms out " excuse is just a step above suicide.


It's just not that simple. Some people - perhaps not in Tacloban, but certainly in some of the remoter places - simply can't evacuate. It would be like telling somebody with a rickety boat to evacuate the Florida Keys.

Some people are infirm, or are sheltering an invalid.

Information in some areas may be very bad, and subject to wild rumor and exaggeration - the crying wolf syndrome.

Importantly, for others, abandoning their homes is abandoning their livelihood. Many people have no money and survive by the implements or area they have around their little shacks. Once they leave they are essentially throwing that away, and going on without may be as much a hardship as dying. It is almost like a captain going down with his ship.

I think a lot of this hand-wringing about people not evacuating in an extremely poor faraway country totally different than America is very misplaced.
Also, I think a lot of this hand-wringing about people not evacuating in an extremely poor faraway country totally different than America is very misplaced.

It's just not that simple. Some people - perhaps not so much in Tacloban, but certainly in some of the remoter places - simply can't evacuate. It would be like telling somebody with a rickety boat to evacuate the Florida Keys.

Then, some people are infirm, or are sheltering an invalid, and would have to leave somebody behind

Further, information in some areas may be very bad, and subject to wild rumor and exaggeration and inaccuracies - the crying wolf syndrome.

Perhaps most importantly, for others, abandoning their homes is abandoning their livelihood. Many people have no money and survive by the implements or area they have around their little shacks. Once they leave they are essentially throwing that away, and going on without may be as much a hardship as dying. It is almost like a captain going down with his ship.