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Super Typhoon Haiyan Finishes Pounding the Philippines, Headed for Vietnam

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:50 PM GMT on November 08, 2013

After spending 48 hours at Category 5 strength, the strongest landfalling tropical cyclone in world history, Super Typhoon Haiyan, has finally weakened to a Category 4 storm. With top sustained winds of 155 mph, Haiyan is still an incredibly powerful super typhoon, but has now finished its rampage through the Central Philippine Islands, and is headed across the South China Sea towards Vietnam. Satellite loops show that Haiyan no longer has a well-defined eye, but the typhoon still has a huge area of intense thunderstorms which are bringing heavy rains to the Central Philippines. I've never witnessed a Category 5 storm that made landfall and stayed at Category 5 strength after spending so many hours over land, and there are very few storms that have stayed at Category 5 strength for so long.


Figure 1. Super Typhoon Haiyan approaching the Philippines, as seen by the Japan Meteorological Agency's MTSAT at 0630Z on November 7, 2013. At the time, Haiyan had maximum sustained winds of 175 mph. Image credit: NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory.

Haiyan's place in history
Haiyan hit Guiuan, on the Philippine island of Samar, at 4:40 am local time (20:40 UTC) November 8, 2013. Three hours before landfall, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) assessed Haiyan’s sustained winds at 195 mph, gusting to 235 mph, making it the 4th strongest tropical cyclone in world history. Satellite loops show that Haiyan weakened only slightly, if at all, in the two hours after JTWC’s advisory, so the super typhoon likely made landfall with winds near 195 mph. The next JTWC intensity estimate, for 00Z UTC November 8, about three hours after landfall, put the top winds at 185 mph. Averaging together these estimates gives a strength of 190 mph an hour after landfall. Thus, Haiyan had winds of 190 - 195 mph at landfall, making it the strongest tropical cyclone on record to make landfall in world history. The previous record was held by the Atlantic's Hurricane Camille of 1969, which made landfall in Mississippi with 190 mph winds.

According to the official "best track" records from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, here are the strongest tropical cyclones in world history:

Super Typhoon Nancy (1961), 215 mph winds, 882 mb. Made landfall as a Cat 2 in Japan, killing 191 people.
Super Typhoon Violet (1961), 205 mph winds, 886 mb pressure. Made landfall in Japan as a tropical storm, killing 2 people.
Super Typhoon Ida (1958), 200 mph winds, 877 mb pressure. Made landfall as a Cat 1 in Japan, killing 1269 people.
Super Typhoon Haiyan (2013), 195 mph winds, 895 mb pressure. Made landfall in the Philippines at peak strength.
Super Typhoon Kit (1966), 195 mph winds, 880 mb. Did not make landfall.
Super Typhoon Sally (1964), 195 mph winds, 895 mb. Made landfall as a Cat 4 in the Philippines.

However, it is now recognized (Black 1992) that the maximum sustained winds estimated for typhoons during the 1940s to 1960s were too strong. The strongest reliably measured tropical cyclones were all 5 mph weaker than Haiyan, with 190 mph winds—the Western Pacific's Super Typhoon Tip of 1979, the Atlantic's Hurricane Camille of 1969, and the Atlantic's Hurricane Allen of 1980. All three of these storms had a hurricane hunter aircraft inside of them to measure their top winds. Haiyan's winds were estimated using only satellite images, making its intensity estimate of lower confidence. We don't have any measurements of Haiyan's central pressure, but it may be close to the all-time record of 870 mb set by Super Typhoon Tip. The Japan Meteorological Agency estimated Haiyan's central pressure at 895 mb at 18 UTC (1 pm EST) November 7, 2013. This would make Haiyan the 12th strongest tropical cyclone on record globally, as far as lowest pressure goes.


Figure 2. Damage from Super Typhoon Haiyan in Legazpi city, Albay province, Nov. 8, 2013, about 325 miles south of Manila, Philippines. (Twitter/Ritchel M. Deleon)

Massive damage in the Philippines
Wind damage on the south shore of Samar Island in Guiuan (population 47,000) must have been catastrophic, perhaps the greatest wind damage any place on Earth has endured from a tropical cyclone in the past century. A massive storm surge must have also caused great destruction along a 20-mile swath to the north of where the eye hit, where Project NOAH was predicting a 17’ (5.3 meter) storm tide. Wind and storm surge damage were heavy in Tacloban, population 221,000, the capital of the province of Leyte, according to preliminary media reports. Much of Tacloban is at elevations less than ten feet, and several videos posted on YouTube showed a storm surge of at least ten feet moving through the city. The northern (strong) part of Haiyan’s eyewall made a direct hit on the city. Storm Chaser Jim Edds was in Tacloban, and reported that at least ten crewed boats were in the harbor, attempting to ride out the storm. Haiyan’s winds, rains, and storm surge have caused widespread devastation throughout the Central Philippines, though we do not yet have reports from the worst-hit portions of the disaster zone, including the south shore of Samar Island. Fortunately, the storm’s fast forward speed of 25 mph cut down the amount of rain the storm dumped, compared to typical typhoons that affect the Philippines. Hopefully, this will keep the death toll due to flash flooding relatively low. Flash floods are usually the biggest killer in Philippine typhoons.


Figure 3. Predicted rainfall from the 06Z November 8, 2013 run of the HWRF model, for the 96-hour period ending at 06Z November 12, 2013. A 100-mile wide swath of 8 - 16 inches of rain (medium dark red colors) as well as a 30-mile wide swath of 16 - 24" (dark red colors) is predicted to affect Vietnam and Laos. Rains of this magnitude are likely to cause a top-five most expensive natural disaster in both nations. Image credit: NOAA/NCEP/EMC.

Haiyan an extremely dangerous storm for Vietnam and Laos
Haiyan will steadily decay over the next two days, due to colder waters and higher wind shear. However, it will still likely be a formidable Category 1 or 2 typhoon when it makes landfall in Vietnam near 06 UTC Sunday. Haiyan is expected to begin recurving to the northwest as it makes landfall, which means that a long 100+ mile stretch of the Vietnam coast will receiving the punishing winds and peak storm surge of the strong northern portion of the typhoon. With part of its circulation still over water, Haiyan will be able to pull in a huge amount of moisture that will create prodigious rains over Vietnam and Laos. I expect that the 12+ inches of rain that the storm will dump on those nations will make it a top-five most expensive natural disaster in their history.

Links
Visible satellite landfall loop from the Korean COMS-1 satellite, courtesy of Scott Bachmeier of the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group.
Damage videos from Tacloban from Marcjan Maloon
Twitter updates from Japan meteorologist Robert Speta.


Video 1. Damaging winds and a potent storm surge from Super Typhoon Haiyan are captured in this video from the capital of Leyte Province, Tacloban, which received a direct hit from Haiyan. Thanks to wunderground member GatorWX for posting this in my blog comments.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 491. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm going out on a limb (or maybe not so much) and saying that Haiyan was the strongest tropical cyclone ever observed. Its satellite presentation was unlike anything we've ever seen before. No Atlantic or East Pacific storm even comes close. Even some of the West Pacific typhoons that also scored T8.0 on the Dvorak scale -- Angela, Gay, Tip, etc -- looked pretty ragged compared to the monster we saw on satellite yesterday.

I'm going to say >200 mph, <880 millibars.


Haiyan yesterday was the strongest storm we've ever tracked without a doubt, much stronger than even Wilma.
Quoting 496. Tsovinar:
LesBonsTemps, a few minutes ago if you checked Google News it had the New York Times saying "....appeared not to live up to fears that it would be a particularly deadly storm," and right below that the Jerusalem Post quoting Reuters reports that at least 100 had died.

According to multiple reports cell phone towers and other communications are down, so I think it may take awhile to get a clearer picture.

This is another report:

http://www.rappler.com/nation/43285-initial-repor ts-damage-tacloban-city
its to live up to its claim just need time for info to get out
BTW, as there are some (bad!) news now coming in from Tacloban there is nothing yet to be heard from those twittering stormchasers Reynolds and Edds yet, and moreover any news from the landfalling area of Eastern Samar are lacking. Should be some helis in that area later, according to twitter news.

With this good night from Germany and best wishes for the Philippines!
Quoting 490. Patrap:
Even the Founding fathers were meticulous Weather recorders and Data keeper.

Esp Thomas Jefferson.

Weather Observations

For the more than fifty years that Thomas Jefferson was a systematic weather observer, Monticello was the focus of his efforts to understand the American climate. Well before 1776, the date of his earliest surviving meteorological diary, he was carefully assembling information on the weather of Virginia and making his own observations at Williamsburg and Monticello. The fruits of these endeavors appeared in the chapter on climate in his Notes on the State of Virginia, which, when published in 1785, established his membership in the international fraternity of scientists and natural philosophers.

From 1776 Jefferson kept a consistent and, with inevitable interruptions, continuous record of his weather observations, in America, in Europe, and even in the mid-Atlantic. His practices and those of National Weather Service observers today are basically the same: to measure precipitation and to record the daily temperature range. The modern station at Monticello requires one daily reading of two thermometers which indicate maximum and minimum temperatures for the preceding twenty-four hours. Jefferson had no need of a maximum-minimum thermometer because he rose every day at dawn, which he considered the coldest time of day.

He described his daily ritual, the results of which are illustrated in the page from his meteorological diary here reproduced, as follows: "My method is to make two observations a day, the one as early as possible in the morning, the other from 3. to 4. aclock, because I have found 4. aclock the hottest and day light the coldest point of the 24. hours. I state them in an ivory pocket book in the following form, and copy them out once a week.

The 1st. column is the day of the month.

The 2d. the thermometer in the morning. The 4th. do. in the evening.

The 3d. the weather in the morning. The 5th do. in the afternoon. The 6th is for miscellanies, such as the appearance of birds, leafing and flowering of trees, frosts remarkeably late or early, Aurora borealis, &c.

In the 3d. and 5th. columns, a. is after: c, cloudy: f, fair: h, hail: r, rain: s, snow. Thus c a r h s means, cloudy after rain, hail and snow.

Whenever it has rained, hailed or snowed between two observations I note it thus, f a r (i.e. fair after rain), c a s (cloudy after snow &c.) otherwise the falling weather would escape notation. I distinguish weather into fair or cloudy, according as the sky is more or less than half covered with clouds."
Oh Geese, now you are saying my yankee uncle invented weather prediction, and the primitive native Americans were oblivious to it's comings and goings. Were you Romney's campaign manager Pat?
Pardon this unrelated post but a major development is about to occur with that European satellite dropping from the sky. I will post altitude, others feel free to reply to this comment and post the altitude. There is a tracking page where you can see the current location of the satellite. They should be able to predict where it will fall now (which is likely to be the ocean) but who knows it could be a populated area as well:

-- tracking
http://www.n2yo.com/?s=34602

-- story of the satellite fall
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/07/science/space/s atellite-will-fall-to-earth-but-no-ones-sure-where .html

Quoting 505. leftlink:
Pardon this unrelated post but a major development is about to occur with that European satellite dropping from the sky. I will post altitude, others feel free to reply to this comment and post the altitude. There is a tracking page where you can see the current location of the satellite. They should be able to predict where it will fall now (which is likely to be the ocean) but who knows it could be a populated area as well:

-- tracking
http://www.n2yo.com/?s=34602

-- story of the satellite fall
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/07/science/space/s atellite-will-fall-to-earth-but-no-ones-sure-where .html

Thanks Left.
Quoting 505. leftlink:
Pardon this unrelated post but a major development is about to occur with that European satellite dropping from the sky. I will post altitude, others feel free to reply to this comment and post the altitude. There is a tracking page where you can see the current location of the satellite. They should be able to predict where it will fall now (which is likely to be the ocean) but who knows it could be a populated area as well:

-- tracking
http://www.n2yo.com/?s=34602

-- story of the satellite fall
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/07/science/space/s atellite-will-fall-to-earth-but-no-ones-sure-where .html

Depending on how much longer it holds up it might ruin the day of a clueless group of penguins perhaps. Outside of that it doesn't appear to pose much threat does it? :P
World waits to see powerful typhoon's devastation in the Philippines
By Michael Martinez and Jethro Mullen, CNN
updated 9:19 PM EST, Fri November 8, 2013


Are you in the affected area? Send us images and video, but please stay safe.
(CNN) -- As dawn broke Saturday in the Philippines, the devastation of Super Typhoon Haiyan was expected to become better known a day after the storm -- perhaps the strongest ever -- rampaged across the central isles of the archipelago.
An early report by the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council indicated at least three people were killed, but there were widespread fears of a much higher death toll. At least seven people were hurt, according the council's report on Friday.
The destruction is expected to be catastrophic. Storm clouds covered the entire Philippines, stretching 1,120 miles -- equal to a distance between Florida and Canada. The deadly wind field, or tropical storm force winds, covered an area the size of Montana or Germany.
The typhoon first roared onto the country's eastern island of Samar at 4:30 a.m. Friday, flooding streets and knocking out power and communications in many areas of the region of Eastern Visayas, and then continued its march, barreling into five other Philippine islands.
Then, predawn Saturday, it headed toward Vietnam.
HOW BAD WAS IT? | As weather calms, government races to reach Yolanda-battered areas

"The government, military and Red Cross said one of their top priorities was trying to re-establish contact or reach communities in Leyte and Samar, two regions that were hit when the typhoon was at its strongest.
The military began flying C-130 planes full of relief supplies to Tacloban, the capital of Leyte, on Saturday morning, amid fears the city of more than 220,000 people and surrounding areas had been devastated.
A journalist for a local television network GMA reported seeing dozens of bodies lined up along roads and piled up in a church in the city and also in the neighboring coastal town of Palo.
The area was believed to have been hit by huge storm surges while residents had reported 11 people being swept out to sea in Tacloban.
Asked about the damage in Tacloban, Cabinet Secretary Rene Almendras said they were bracing for the worst.
"It's difficult to say exactly what happened there. It was very bad. There are reports that there were people dead because of the surge," Almendras told reporters in Manila.
"We are very concerned about the situation there." "
Quoting 489. Chicklit:
Who pissed off Mother Nature?

just stating the obvious
Nature is not my mother,and it definitely wasn't the Philippines yesterday.
Quoting 501. CybrTeddy:


Haiyan yesterday was the strongest storm we've ever tracked without a doubt, much stronger than even Wilma.
I heard cyber reports of 230 MPH gusts. That is possible. We were not there, and that is definitely a monster storm. Where were our famous American storm chasers? They could have died at the airport in this one.
www.portlight.org

Portlight Featured wunderblog





Super Typhoon Hiayan ripped through the Pacific Ocean with devastating force equivalent to a category 5 hurricane. Yesterday the super typhoon made landfall thru the Philippine island Provence of Samar with sustained winds of 195 mph and gusts of 235 mph.

In addition to the strong winds, the super typhoon is dropping massive amounts of rain. To give you some perception of this storm, Super Storm Sandy's highest sustained winds were 115 mph making Hiayan almost twice as powerful.



Haiyan had winds of 190 - 195 mph at landfall, making it the strongest tropical cyclone on record to make landfall in world history. Dr. Jeff Masters, The Weather Underground


Hiayan is expected be a category 2 storm when it makes landfall in Vietnam and Laos with wind speeds 100 mph. It is estimated to drop 12 inches of rain when it makes landfall. The combination of extremely high winds and excessive rain fall could make this storm the most expensive natural disaster in their history.



Portlight has begun to reach out to disability organizations to provide durable medical equipment. International relief work is very expensive because of shipping costs. This storm has the potential to be one of the most expensive and disastrous typhoons ever.

We need your help to provide this aid to those affected by this super typhoon.


Thank you for your support and we will keep you updated on our progress




Tacloban was hit by the Northern eyewall while the storm was at 195 mph
Quoting 512. Pallis:
I heard cyber reports of 230 MPH gusts. That is possible. We were not there, and that is definitely a monster storm. Where were our famous American storm chasers? They could have died at the airport in this one.
airport is gone only the runway remains


South Dakota Severe Winter Storm, Snowstorm, and Flooding (DR-4155)

Incident period: October 3, 2013 to October 16, 2013
Major Disaster Declaration declared on November 8, 2013
Updates and Articles, Blogs, and News Releases

November 8, 2013
News Release
Federal Aid Programs for the State of South Dakota Declaration
Following is a summary of key federal disaster aid programs that can be made available as needed and warranted under President Obama's disaster declaration issued for the State of South Dakota.Assistance for Affected Individuals and Families Can Include as Required:
Quoting 501. CybrTeddy:


Haiyan yesterday was the strongest storm we've ever tracked without a doubt, much stronger than even Wilma.


Teddy, asking a question here but didnt you say countless times this season to not go off satellite presentation of a storm? There was no recon yesterday so how can we be certain that it was the strongest storm without a doubt?
Quoting 503. barbamz:
BTW, as there are some (bad!) news now coming in from Tacloban there is nothing yet to be heard from those twittering stormchasers Reynolds and Edds yet, and moreover any news from the landfalling area of Eastern Samar are lacking. Should be some helis in that area later, according to twitter news.

With this good night from Germany and best wishes for the Philippines!


I just heard on CNN that some StormChasers are part of the deceased. Not good news at all as reports of whole towns leveled. Nothing left for miles was a direct quote from a reporter.
Quoting 518. StormTrackerScott:


I just heard on CNN that some StormChasers are part of the deceased. Not good news at all as reports of whole towns leveled. Nothing left for miles was a direct quote from a reporter.


thats terrible..however thats the risk you take in chasing a storm..I pray they are alright though and just without communication..
Quoting 517. ncstorm:


Teddy, asking a question here but didnt you say countless times this season to not go off satellite presentation of a storm? There was no recon yesterday so how can we be certain that it was the strongest storm without a doubt?


nc it was what it was claimed to be

trust me when I say this

and over the coming days you will see as well
192hr GFS snowfall map. My buddy ncstorm will like this.



Euro
Quoting 521. StormTrackerScott:
192hr GFS snowfall map. My buddy ncstorm will like this.



we'll see..the models change their minds too much..however our NWS did put chances of snow in our forecast per TA post..thats saying a lot..
People on here were making light of this earlier on here saying that the damage wasn't that bad. Well that's because no one could get to the hardest hit areas.
Quoting 517. ncstorm:


Teddy, asking a question here but didnt you say countless times this season to not go off satellite presentation of a storm? There was no recon yesterday so how can we be certain that it was the strongest storm without a doubt?


I did, but that was for weak tropical storms. When observing the storms this season, it was difficult to determine whether or not they had a closed LLC (Dorian, Chantal, for example). Although they had a satellite signature of a stronger system, there wasn't much going down on the surface and they struggled to maintain status as a tropical cyclone for the various reasons this season dished out.

Haiyan however had a stronger satellite signature than anything we've ever seen before in the last 20-30 years. What's more, the damage being observed so far seems consistent with a tropical cyclone of exponential strength. That being said, we'll never know for sure. Recon wasn't sent into Haiyan at all, and we only knew the intensity of Super Typhoon Megi in 2010 from recon observations. Perhaps we'll know more when we get the data back in from storm chasers who ended up in the eye.

(btw, good question, I appreciate it! That does need to be clarified for some on here)
Quoting 515. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
airport is gone only the runway remains


Reports are stormchasers are among the deceased however don't know if they are Americans
I wonder if Jim Cantore is still salivating at the mouth to see if the models show a big snow storm for D.C again.
Quoting 525. StormTrackerScott:


Reports are stormchasers are among the deceased however don't know if they are Americans


Source? I really don't want another El Reno with this. This is a truly terrible situation.
This storm was incredible looking. Almost like a hybrid between regular and an annular cyclone (certainly the CDO was quite symmetric). It's too bad it didn't stay out at sea and we didn't have any reconnaissance inside it.
Quoting 528. CybrTeddy:


Source? I really don't want another El Reno with this. Beyond terrible situation.


CNN
I live in central North Carolina and snow this early in the year would be a very welcome sight. Knowing my location it will snow all day then be ninety degrees the next. Oh well you take what you can get I guess, I'll take this prediction lightly for now don't want to get my hopes up.
Quoting 528. CybrTeddy:


Source? I really don't want another El Reno with this. Beyond terrible situation.


May not be Americans. Lets hope.
Man, that is a shot for sure.

Quoting 527. washingtonian115:
I wonder if Jim Cantore is still salivating at the mouth to see if the models show a big snow storm for D.C again.


Thundersnow? Seems to always happen when Jim Cantore shows up.
I went thru 110mph winds with Charley and was deathly affraid. I couldn't imagine another 100mph being tacted onto that.
Quoting 534. StormTrackerScott:


Thundersnow? Seems to always happen when Jim Cantore shows up.
Right now the models aren't showing any snow for D.C.They track the storm to far off the coast and that leaves us high and dry in return.
Quoting 526. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
31W
Is that an eye I see perhaps trying to reform? Incredible that although not nearly as impressive as before it has held together so well.
Quoting 528. CybrTeddy:


Source? I really don't want another El Reno with this. This is a truly terrible situation.

Seconding that. Both Jim (@ExtremeStorms) and James (@typhoonfury) are very followed on Twitter and I have seen nothing on Twitter to suggest that there is any news on them yet.
The amazingly circular banding lets you know that this one was left to do what what it wished, with no adversity.
This should make for an interesting Winter season for the US.

Quoting 537. CloudyWithAChance:
Is that an eye I see perhaps trying to reform? Incredible that although not nearly as impressive as before it has held together so well.
I will let ya know the minute I see it winking at me
Nino regions are continuing to warm everyday.

It's a huge dream of mine to see Jim Cantore doing push ups in the Thundersnow. In fact that covers just about any weather event he happens to show up for.
MANILA, Philippines (UPDATED) – The outside world is slowly getting an idea of the extent of damage left in the wake of Typhoon Yolanda (international codename Haiyan), with reports of roughly a hundred dead and extensive damage to infrastructure.

While communication remains limited and reports remain sketchy and inaccurate, National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) spokesman Rey Balido told dzMM radio in an interview on Saturday morning, they have gotten "initial contact" from their team in the city Friday night, November 8.

"They said the damage inflicted by super typhoon Yolanda was severe," he said in the interview. "They said there are barely any houses [left] standing."

Balido said a few buildings reportedly remain intact but that most houses were crushed by fallen trees. He said they are still trying to determine the exact number of casualties.

"Our team there said many died but they were unable to tell us how many," he said.
Plenty of heat energy left in the W-Pac for more typhoons in the coming weeks.


CNN's Chad Myers said water rose to as high as 50 feet in the city of Tacloban; this is where the 100 dead bodies have been discovered and very little remains. I caution against using Chad Myers as a reliable source though. Or better yet, I caution against any water values right now.

What's terrifying to me is that Tacloban was grazed by the northern eyewall after the eye passed over Guiuan and weakened some. The devastation on Guiuan is probably beyond anything we've seen produced by a tropical cyclone before.
Quoting 547. TropicalAnalystwx13:
CNN's Chad Myers said water rose to as high as 50 feet in the city of Tacloban; this is where the 100 dead bodies have been discovered and very little remains.

What's terrifying to me is that Tacloban was grazed by the northern eyewall after the eye passed over Guiuan and weakened some. The devastation on Guiuan is probably going to be beyond anything we've seen before.


Where were the stormchasers in that city? Does anybody know?
Quoting 548. StormTrackerScott:


Where were the stormchasers in that city? Does anybody know?

According to their Facebook post, they moved from a beachside resort to an old hotel near the downtown of Tacloban. They cautioned that this was still only two blocks from the water though.

The team has been through many typhoons, but none of this magnitude. I hope they're okay.
Quoting 549. TropicalAnalystwx13:

According to their Facebook post, they moved from a beachside resort to an old hotel near the downtown of Tacloban. They cautioned that this was still only two blocks from the water though.

The team has been through many typhoons, but none of this magnitude. I hope they're okay.


Keeper said that some were stationed at an airport that was leveled. I couldn't imagine experiencing 230mph wind gust.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Where were the stormchasers in that city? Does anybody know?


If not mistaken at Tacloban
Quoting 548. StormTrackerScott:


Where were the stormchasers in that city? Does anybody know?

According to a poster on AmericanWx, this was their location.

I really love all my new tools from weatherbell! Thanks JB!

Any idea about the damage in Boracay? I was tuned into the live cams there for awhile until they either decided to take them down or they were knocked out.
Quoting 552. 1900hurricane:

According to a poster on AmericanWx, this was their location.



I really hope they made it out alive.
Typhoon "YOLANDA" continues to move over the West Philippine Sea and is expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility this afternoon

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Yolanda [HAIYAN] (948 hPa) located at 12.6N 116.0E or 549 km west of San Jose, Occidental Mindoro has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gustiness up to 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 18 knots.

Signal Warning #1

Luzon region
------------
1. Northern Palawan
2. Puerto Princesa City

Additional Information
=========================
Public Warning Signal elsewhere are now lowered.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 5.0-15.0 mm per hour (moderate to heavy) within the 400 km diameter out of 600 km diameter of the typhoon.

Sea travel is risky over the seaboards of northern Luzon, central Luzon and the Eastern seaboards of southern Luzon and Visayas.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
I think the India Meteorological Department has upgraded ARB01-2013 to a deep depression..

won't be confirmed until about 11:30 AM IST (their next advisory time)
understand the passion for chasing and collect data but for a storm of that magnitude it just is not worth putting your life in these extremely dangerous conditions. hope there ok
From AmericanWx:

"Reporter on CNN now has just arrived in Tacloban. She says every tree is either toppled or broken at the trunk, with the bark stripped off. The airport is completely gone, except for the runway. She has seen a couple of dead bodies, but also many people walking around looking for food and water."

I've never heard of tree debarking in a tropical cyclone. When dealing with tornadoes, we usually see that when winds cross the EF-4 threshold, 166-200 mph.

I can't imagine what the devastation looks like.
Quoting 559. TropicalAnalystwx13:
From AmericanWx:

"Reporter on CNN now has just arrived in Tacloban. She says every tree is either toppled or broken at the trunk, with the bark stripped off. The airport is completely gone, except for the runway. She has seen a couple of dead bodies, but also many people walking around looking for food and water."

I've never heard of tree debarking in a tropical cyclone. When dealing with tornadoes, we usually see that when winds cross the EF-4 threshold, 166-200 mph.

I can't imagine what the devastation looks like.


Damm! Tree debarking wow. Imagine an EF 4 tornado raging for 6 to 8 hours that is what these people went thru.
Directly NW of the eye in the pocket on the -125 line is where the chasers were.

Quoting 524. CybrTeddy:


I did, but that was for weak tropical storms. When observing the storms this season, it was difficult to determine whether or not they had a closed LLC (Dorian, Chantal, for example). Although they had a satellite signature of a stronger system, there wasn't much going down on the surface and they struggled to maintain status as a tropical cyclone for the various reasons this season dished out.

Haiyan however had a stronger satellite signature than anything we've ever seen before in the last 20-30 years. What's more, the damage being observed so far seems consistent with a tropical cyclone of exponential strength. That being said, we'll never know for sure. Recon wasn't sent into Haiyan at all, and we only knew the intensity of Super Typhoon Megi in 2010 from recon observations. Perhaps we'll know more when we get the data back in from storm chasers who ended up in the eye.

(btw, good question, I appreciate it! That does need to be clarified for some on here)


Thanks Teddy for the explanation :)..I'm not doubting the storm was terrible and catastrophic at all..I'm just being a little on the skeptical side about it being strongest storm on record when we didnt even have recon going in there..if anything good comes out of this maybe we can have a global hurricane hunter crew to assist the world and not just selected regions..
I will repeat this.
let us consider a new cyclone category
Category 6.
This storm has already shown to push the edge of this.

at landfall, about the only thing that could conceivably survive is a concrete bunker, if not for the storm surge.

I'm afraid this storm might make the Christmas Tsunami pale in death toll, even with the pre-storm preparations

How many more like this or stronger will appear?
Quoting 561. ProgressivePulse:
Directly NW of the eye in the pocket on the -125 line is where the chasers were.



So they took on the northern eyewall. That little notch in the coast where the stormchasers were located probably had atleast a 50' storm surge.
Quoting 563. WXColorado:
I will repeat this.
let us consider a new cyclone category
Category 6.
This storm has already shown to push the edge of this.

at landfall, about the only thing that could conceivably survive is a concrete bunker, if not for the storm surge.

I'm afraid this storm might make the Christmas Tsunami pale in death toll, even with the pre-storm preparations

How many more like this or stronger will appear?


.....I'm afraid this storm might make the Christmas Tsunami pale in death toll,

No.... every person in Tacloban and Guiuan would have to die for the toll to be that high. Its not likely... more likely to be a couple thousand
Quoting 563. WXColorado:
I will repeat this.
let us consider a new cyclone category
Category 6.
This storm has already shown to push the edge of this.

at landfall, about the only thing that could conceivably survive is a concrete bunker, if not for the storm surge.

I'm afraid this storm might make the Christmas Tsunami pale in death toll, even with the pre-storm preparations

How many more like this or stronger will appear?


Whats more sad was the lack of respect on here earlier as everyone seemed to wanna downplay this. I said earlier the hardest areas had no info coming in only from the areas that took an indirect hit. A storm of this magnitude has no safe place to be unless underground.
Quoting 563. WXColorado:
I will repeat this.
let us consider a new cyclone category
Category 6.
This storm has already shown to push the edge of this.

at landfall, about the only thing that could conceivably survive is a concrete bunker, if not for the storm surge.

I'm afraid this storm might make the Christmas Tsunami pale in death toll, even with the pre-storm preparations

How many more like this or stronger will appear?

There isn't a need for Category 6 for the exact same reason there isn't a need for an EF-6. After Category 5 (and EF-5; EF-4 really...) nothing is left. There would be no way to differentiate the damage between the categories.
568. xkcd
Can anyone suggest a good place to look back at recent model runs? Or to see the ECMWF/GFS initialization for a given time?

I have a friend who's trying to reach family in the Philippines, and he was asking me what conditions their island was likely to have experienced. I figured an easy way to see this would be to look at the 0h ECMWF wind layer for the time when the cyclone passed near their island. But I can't find an easy way to look at model data from anything other than the current or previous run.

This doesn't seem to be available on the Wundermap, and I can't find it anywhere else, either. Anyone have any suggestions? Or ideas for other ways I could get this information?
Quoting 559. TropicalAnalystwx13:
From AmericanWx:

"Reporter on CNN now has just arrived in Tacloban. She says every tree is either toppled or broken at the trunk, with the bark stripped off. The airport is completely gone, except for the runway. She has seen a couple of dead bodies, but also many people walking around looking for food and water."

I've never heard of tree debarking in a tropical cyclone. When dealing with tornadoes, we usually see that when winds cross the EF-4 threshold, 166-200 mph.

I can't imagine what the devastation looks like.

Only ever heard of a tropical cyclone debarking trees once before, and it happened a very long time ago.
Quoting 569. 1900hurricane:

Only ever heard of a tropical cyclone debarking trees once before, and it happened a very long time ago.


Camile?
I understand their reasoning in putting some land in front of them but unfortunately for them Haiyan seemed to avoid that.
Quoting 570. StormTrackerScott:


Camile?
If you hovered your cursor over the link, you could see that it was the Great Hurricane of 1780 without even following the link.
573. beell
Quoting 568. xkcd:
Can anyone suggest a good place to look back at recent model runs? Or to see the ECMWF/GFS initialization for a given time?

I have a friend who's trying to reach family in the Philippines, and he was asking me what conditions their island was likely to have experienced. I figured an easy way to see this would be to look at the 0h ECMWF wind layer for the time when the cyclone passed near their island. But I can't find an easy way to look at model data from anything other than the current or previous run.

This doesn't seem to be available on the Wundermap, and I can't find it anywhere else, either. Anyone have any suggestions? Or ideas for other ways I could get this information?


Over on the left side of the page after you select your model(s) of choice.

Tropical Tidbits
Quoting 568. xkcd:
Can anyone suggest a good place to look back at recent model runs? Or to see the ECMWF/GFS initialization for a given time?

I have a friend who's trying to reach family in the Philippines, and he was asking me what conditions their island was likely to have experienced. I figured an easy way to see this would be to look at the 0h ECMWF wind layer for the time when the cyclone passed near their island. But I can't find an easy way to look at model data from anything other than the current or previous run.

This doesn't seem to be available on the Wundermap, and I can't find it anywhere else, either. Anyone have any suggestions? Or ideas for other ways I could get this information?

For the GFS, Levi Cowan keeps a recent archive of model runs, and for the ECMWF, I suggest the main ECMWF page as they too have the last few model runs available.
There are 100+ fatalities in Tacloban City alone.

Via 28storms.com
Bad news out of the Philippines: Via @Kathy_Novak
and @CAAP_Operations's John Andrews 100+ fatalities in Tacloban City #haiyan
Quoting 572. Xulonn:
If you hovered your cursor over the link, you could see that it was the Great Hurricane of 1780 without even following the link.


Didn't even see that. Been up since 3:30am for work. I think my tank is on empty now.
Quoting 568. xkcd:
Can anyone suggest a good place to look back at recent model runs? Or to see the ECMWF/GFS initialization for a given time?

I have a friend who's trying to reach family in the Philippines, and he was asking me what conditions their island was likely to have experienced. I figured an easy way to see this would be to look at the 0h ECMWF wind layer for the time when the cyclone passed near their island. But I can't find an easy way to look at model data from anything other than the current or previous run.

This doesn't seem to be available on the Wundermap, and I can't find it anywhere else, either. Anyone have any suggestions? Or ideas for other ways I could get this information?


WeatherBell is the best IMO but it's costly. $185 a year or $20 a month.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #44
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON HAIYAN (T1330)
12:00 PM JST November 9 2013
===================================

South China Sea

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Haiyan (940 hPa) located at 12.9N 115.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 17 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
270 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.4N 108.9E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
45 HRS: 19.7N 105.6E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Overland Vietnam
69 HRS: 22.2N 104.1E - Tropical Depression Overland Vietnam
Quoting 576. StormTrackerScott:


Didn't even see that. Been up since 3:30am for work. I think my tank is on empty now.
And I thought I was a compulsive internet denizen!! Take a break and get some sleep, Scott.
Quoting 576. StormTrackerScott:


Didn't even see that. Been up since 3:30am for work. I think my tank is on empty now.


Its understandable Scott..no worries..some of us arent here to ping bloggers on every little mistake..
As far as the debarking goes. I never got out to inspect but there were many leading edges of forested areas along the Turnpike and I95 in Palm Beach County where the trunks were white for many years after 04 and 05. Superior cleansing or debarking?
My back is about to tank from sitting in this chair for several hours now. Think its time for a nice break go outside and enjoy the cold air. Good night everyone.
Quoting 579. Xulonn:
And I thought I was a compulsive internet denizen!! Take a break and get some sleep, Scott.


I just got on a an hour ago. Worked all day then came home and got my 2 kids feed, washed, and tucked into bed. Now it's blogging time. 16 month old and a 3 month old needless to say i don't sleep much.
Philippine Red Cross ‏@philredcross 8h

When the world no longer watches, we do what must be done.
585. flsky
Quoting 517. ncstorm:


Teddy, asking a question here but didnt you say countless times this season to not go off satellite presentation of a storm? There was no recon yesterday so how can we be certain that it was the strongest storm without a doubt?

Splitting hairs, but really, does anything like that matter at this point?? This is truly a tragedy.
Quoting 585. flsky:

Splitting hairs, but really, does anything like that matter at this point?? This is truly a tragedy.


I bet if recon was in there before landfall we probably would have found out that winds were in the 200mph range. Similar to the 1935 Great key West hurricane.
Quoting 585. flsky:

Splitting hairs, but really, does anything like that matter at this point?? This is truly a tragedy.


I think its a fair question..no one is denying the tragedy of the situation..
Quoting 587. ProgressivePulse:
Hopefully these chasers are ok?





Hearing reports of people walking 6 hours just to find electricity.
Quoting 458. DonnieBwkGA:
The Territory of Florida or Sketches of the Civil and Natural History of the Country, the Climate, and the Indian Tribes from the First Discovery to the Present Time with a Map, Views, Et C.

By John Lee Williams

(1837)


From the book

"During the month of February 1835 East Florida was visited by a frost much more severe than any before experienced. A severe north-west wind blew ten days in succession, but more violent for about three days. During this period East Florida [St. Augustine] sank seven degrees below zero. The St. Johns River was frozen several rods from the shore"


-7F in the St. Augustine area would have to be 500 year or 1000 year cold, considering the official record low for the entire state is -2 (in an area significantly colder than St. Augustine/Jax). It would likely outright kill most native vegetation. -7F in St. Augustine would likely equal, what 5F in orlando? That would be epic to say the least.

My thoughts are with all those in the Philippines who had to endure Yolanda. I couldn't have imagined it would become the record breaker that it did.
Quoting 590. HurrMichaelOrl:


-7F in the St. Augustine area would have to be 500 year or 1000 year cold, considering the official record low for the entire state is -2 (in an area significantly colder than St. Augustine/Jax). It would likely outright kill most native vegetation. -7F in St. Augustine would likely equal, what 5F in orlando? That would be epic to say the least.

My thoughts are with all those in the Philippines who had to endure Yolanda. I couldn't have imagined it would become the record breaker that it did.


Good evening friend. 67 here in Longwood but may get into the 40's next Thursday night before much needed rains move in next weekend.

Quoting 589. StormTrackerScott:


Hearing reports of people walking 6 hours just to find electricity.


Pic wouldn't post had to link it. That is a before and after of downtown Tacloban. Doesn't look like much is left.
Quoting 592. ProgressivePulse:


Pic wouldn't post had to link it. That is a before and after of downtown Tacloban. Doesn't look like much is left.

Believe it or not, those are both pre-eyewall pictures, not a before and after.
Quoting 592. ProgressivePulse:


Pic wouldn't post had to link it. That is a before and after of downtown Tacloban. Doesn't look like much is left.


they are not the same picture so you can't tell ..
Quoting 593. 1900hurricane:

Believe it or not, those are both pre-eyewall pictures, not a before and after.


LOL! Love the Johnny football avatar! However my Noles are gonna win it all this year.
Quoting 591. StormTrackerScott:


Good evening friend. 67 here in Longwood but may get into the 40's next Thursday night before much needed rains move in next weekend.



Good evening Scott. I'm loving the cooler weather. Have my fingers crossed for 40s next week!

03A could be named Helen

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
DEEP DEPRESSION ARB01-2013
5:30 AM IST November 9 2013
======================================

At 0:00 PM UTC, The depression over southwest Arabian sea moved westwards, intensified into deep depression and lay centered 8.0N 53.0E, about 400 km south southeast of Ras Binnah, Somalia, 510 km south southwest of Socotra Island Yemen (41494) and 2200 km west southwest of Minicoy, Lakshadweep (43369).

The system would intensify into a cyclonic storm during next 12 hrs. It would move nearly westwards and cross Somalia coast between 7.0N and 9.0N around Sunday evening.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T2.0. Associated broken low/medium cloud with embedded intense to very intense convection seen over the area between 5.0N to 10.0N and west of 55.0E and Somalia coast. The associated convection has increased gradually with respect to height and organization during past 12 hrs along the northern periphery. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -77C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The state of the sea is very rough around the center. The central pressure of the deep depression is 1002 hPa.

A ship located near 2.7N and 58.6E reported mean sea level pressure of 1007.8 hPa and surface wind of 230/23 knots at 0000 UTC November 9th. The OSCAT observation of 2000 UTC November 8th indicates surface wind 20-30 knots in the southern sector 25-35 knots in the northern sector. The upper tropospheric ridge runs along 13N and is providing poleward out flow in association with the anticyclonic circulation to the northeast of the system center. Hence upper level divergence is favorable for intensification.

The upper level divergence, low level convergence along with low level relative vorticity have have increased during past 12 hrs. The sea surface temperature is about 28-29C and ocean thermal energy is about 80-100 kj/cm2. The sea height anomaly is about 30 cm around system center. However the sea area close to Somalia coast is colder and ocean thermal energy is less than 50 kj/cm2. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind decreased and is about 5-10 knots (low). The Madden-Jullian Oscillation index lies over phase 2 with amplitude approximately 1. Numerical weather prediction models suggest that Madden-Jullian Oscillation would continue in phase 2 during next 3 days, but with lower amplitude.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 7.9N 51.6E - 40-45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 7.8N 50.6E - 45-50 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 7.8N 48.6E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
72 HRS: 8.0N 46.5E - 25 knots (Depression)
$185 a year?
Only an idiot would pay that....for what? Advance warning that only JB has?
Better to send the $185 to The Philippines and get your weather here.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y438d4VlGeQ&fe ature=youtu.be

Striking video of a church roof coming down at 1:00
(CNN) -- More than 100 people were killed in a major Philippine coastal city that took the brunt of Super Typhoon Haiyan, authorities said Saturday.

That death toll in Tacloban was the first significant casualty report in a day when authorities began surveying the devastation of a typhoon that has been described as perhaps the strongest storm ever to make landfall in recorded history.

Capt. John Andrews, deputy director of the Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines, told CNN that he received a radio report from the Tacloban airport station manager who said there are more than 100 bodies in the street in Tacloban and more than 100 people injured.

Traveling aboard a military cargo plane from Manila, CNN's Paula Hancocks was among the first journalists to see the catastrophe in Tacloban on Saturday.

"It looks as though a tsunami swept through here," she said by satellite phone.

The airport terminal was "completely destroyed," and shell-shocked Filipinos were gathering around the airport with the anticipation that the military was bringing food, water and medicine, Hancocks said.

Officials told her that the water surge reached the second story of structures, she said. There were at least two bodies at the airport, she added.


Every tree was flattened or snapped in half, and the timber landed on roads, blocking transportation, she said.

"You assume as you go inland you'll find more people who are injured or who have lost their lives," Hancocks said.

From the plane, she said, "you could see a lot of groundwater on the land itself, and pretty much every single tree was damaged.

"That showed the sheer force of the surge and the wind," she said. "On the ocean front, you can see the defenses were damaged."


Residents waded through waist-high water in the streets Saturday. Vehicles were turned over or piled on one another. Fallen utility poles were in the middle of roads.

Philippine officials feared the death toll would grow.

"Yes, we are worried about the eastern side, the Tacloban area," said Rene Almendras, secretary to the cabinet.

In a separate report earlier Saturday, as reports began coming in to authorities, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council indicated at least four people were killed. At least seven people were hurt, and four people were missing, the council also said Saturday.


The destruction is expected to be catastrophic. Storm clouds covered the entire Philippines, stretching 1,120 miles -- equal to a distance between Florida and Canada. The deadly wind field, or tropical storm force winds, covered an area the size of Montana or Germany.
Quoting 558. hurricane23:
understand the passion for chasing and collect data but for a storm of that magnitude it just is not worth putting your life in these extremely dangerous conditions. hope there ok


Agreed. I've seen videos of Charley, a storm that was violent in and of itself, but that pales significantly in comparison to the strength of Haiyan.

I can always chase a less violent storm.
Quoting 598. CosmicEvents:
$185 a year?
Only an idiot would pay that....for what? Advance warning that only JB has?
Better to send the $185 to The Philippines and get your weather here.


To you yes but me no I consider this my hobby.
603. xkcd
beell
Quoting 574. 1900hurricane:

For the GFS, Levi Cowan keeps a recent archive of model runs, and for the ECMWF, I suggest the main ECMWF page as they too have the last few model runs available.

Thank you for the links! Sadly, both of those seem to only provide low-resolution snapshots of the Pacific basin, so there's just a black mess of lines over the whole central Philippines, and it's impossible to tell whether a given island likely experienced catastrophic winds and surge or just a strong breeze.

There must be an easier way to figure this out ... I mean, the information was easily available on wundermap 24 hours ago. It must be archived somewhere ...
Quoting 598. CosmicEvents:
$185 a year?
Only an idiot would pay that....for what? Advance warning that only JB has?
Better to send the $185 to The Philippines and get your weather here.


The only site I subscribe to for weather data is Allan Huffman, because he does offer certain data I can't get anywhere else. But that's only $10 for a 30-day subscription, and I don't need them during the offseason. I don't use his site for severe weather; I use Twisterdata.

It's undoubtedly nice to have additional products no one else has, but I don't need it to make accurate forecasts. Never have.
Quoting 603. xkcd:
beell
Thank you for the links! Sadly, both of those seem to only provide low-resolution snapshots of the Pacific basin, so there's just a black mess of lines over the whole central Philippines, and it's impossible to tell whether a given island likely experienced catastrophic winds and surge or just a strong breeze.

There must be an easier way to figure this out ... I mean, the information was easily available on wundermap 24 hours ago. It must be archived somewhere ...


NCDC probably has what you're looking for.
I think this was posted earlier, but here it is again. The winds get fierce at 1:52 in.

00z GFS Snow map..
I echo Cody's statements above, I've never heard of wide scale total tree debarkment in a tropical cyclone.
Haiyan continues to slowly rebound.
Quoting 606. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think this was posted earlier, but here it is again. The winds get fierce at 1:52 in.



"Fierce" is an understatement. Wow.
Quoting 603. xkcd:
beell
Thank you for the links! Sadly, both of those seem to only provide low-resolution snapshots of the Pacific basin, so there's just a black mess of lines over the whole central Philippines, and it's impossible to tell whether a given island likely experienced catastrophic winds and surge or just a strong breeze.

There must be an easier way to figure this out ... I mean, the information was easily available on wundermap 24 hours ago. It must be archived somewhere ...

Maybe try FSU Cyclone Phase Analysis? Grid resolution is going to be a problem for every model available to choose, but it might be the closest to what you are looking for.



For the record, the GFS seems to be the only model they have that is able to resolve the small tropical cyclone core moderately well.
Quoting 554. CloudyWithAChance:
Any idea about the damage in Boracay? I was tuned into the live cams there for awhile until they either decided to take them down or they were knocked out.


I know, and just before there was much to see. It was getting breezy and cloudy, but the bad conditions were just a couple hours off.
http://instagram.com/p/geqSz0r30E/

(unverified report)
"Our latest report on Tacloban: numerous people are feared dead after the astrodome sports complex collapsed with lots of evacuees inside. There was a tsunami-like effect and it is reported that a ship of undetermined size was washed on top of the gaisano supermarket. Two truckloads of army soldiers from carb was met with surging flood, was washed away. Only two soldiers survived."


Edit: there is (was?) a 5,000 seat sports complex in Tacloban
Quoting 614. sunlinepr:

Some of this is copied from a video of a midwest derecho.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4zw5rtRlj4I
Quoting 613. no1der:
http://instagram.com/p/geqSz0r30E/

(unverified report)
"Our latest report on Tacloban: numerous people are feared dead after the astrodome sports complex collapsed with lots of evacuees inside. There was a tsunami-like effect and it is reported that a ship of undetermined size was washed on top of the gaisano supermarket. Two truckloads of army soldiers from carb was met with surging flood, was washed away. Only two soldiers survived."
the sea lifted as it tried to follow the storm as it moved forward
Quoting 551. hurricane23:


If not mistaken at Tacloban


I deeply hope that the death toll from this horrific typhoon is as low as Godly possible; although with a storm of this historic magnitude there will sadly be numerous deaths. Hopefully the rapid forward speed of the typhoon helped mitigate the potential loss of life; as with when Hurricane Andrew (a "low end" category #5 hurricane) hit S. Florida, and the death count from the actual storm event was "only" 19. Another 50 or so people died during the cleanup.

During the first hours after Andrew struck, several news organizations were shouting, "Homestead Florida was completely destroyed." Yes, there was much damage, but more like it took a severe beating in a barfight; certainly not destroyed.

I have to admit that tropical cyclones are amazing to me, and that the few who chase these storms for the "fun of it" can also be admired to a certain extent. And yes, all of these storm-chasers of today do it almost entirely for the "fun of it", and a couple more entirely as an act of attention seeking alone. "Look at me, I'm chasing!"

Although decades ago the weather observations they took (barometric pressure and film of the height of the tidal surge) were somewhat helpful to meteorologists; in recent years, the local people (ship captains, etc) have plenty of barometers, and every other citizen of the world has some sort of video capability (cellphone, videocam, etc.). I mention this because almost every interview with any kind of storm chaser these days has the interviewee claiming he does it for "science", or to "document" the event for mankind. Bolderdash!

It is for the fun and amazement of nature at its most dynamic and the fascination of the organization that nature unveils in its hurricanes and tornadoes; that drives storm-chasers. And sometimes for the few dollars they might make selling the video they shoot; that might just cover their travel expenses plus a steak dinner.

The several storm chasers mentioned in previous posts (James Reynolds and two companions) took refuge in the Alejandro Hotel; a 90 yr. a old extremely sturdy concrete structure, that is located 25 feet above sea level; and is at least 4 stories tall. I would hope and bet they they "survived" the storm.

As I noted earlier, I prey that the death toll is not too high for the residents of those islands that "had" to be there to ride out the typhoon; these people live there and fleeing these islands for most of them is simply not possible.

But any storm chaser that purposely places themselves in the path of a typhoon with maximum sustained winds of category #5 intensity (155 mph), and much less 190 mph sustained wind intensity, is behaving like an fool. Every textbook on the subject makes it clear that storms of category #5 intensity cause catastrophic destruction; and that construction standards in any part of the world do not meet standards to withstand 200 mph gusts of wind.

No different than a tornado chaser purposely driving his black Chevrolet Camero directly into the path of an F3-F4 tornado. Doing that displays their complete lack of understanding of the destructive power of the very "animal" they claim to be experts at. A category #3 or category #4 hurricane/typhoon interception has the understandable risks of brinksmanship. A 190 mph sustained wind typhoon is totally another story.



Among many other things, this storm is tenacious.

I know the focus is on Haiyan right now, but I can't help but be curious. I was browsing through Kiko's report from the NHC, and I noticed something interesting:

"The following day, the southern portion of a prolific tropical wave – one that had already contributed to the genesis of Atlantic Tropical Storms Erin and Fernand, and to the formation of eastern North Pacific Tropical Storm Juliette – approached the broad area of low pressure."

I wonder if this is perhaps the first instance of three separate instances of cyclogenesis occurring with the same tropical wave? I know having two is rather uncommon, but I've never heard of three.
Quoting 616. opal92nwf:

Some of this is copied from a video of a midwest derecho.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4zw5rtRlj4I


thanks, looks like we can't trust everything posted on the net...

have to do the homework of double, triple checking...


BREAKING NEWS
Bodies in the streets
Watch this video
Scores reported dead in typhoon

Super Typhoon Haiyan packed a wallop on Philippine structures 3.5 times more forceful than Hurricane Katrina did in New Orleans in 2005, said CNN's Chad Myers. FULL STORY
Quoting 622. sunlinepr:


thanks, looks like we can't trust everything posted on the net...

have to do the homework of double, triple checking...



That's something I've learned steadily over the last year.
This from the New York Times only a half hour ago:

"But because it moved across the country so rapidly, it may not have killed as many people as feared. Experts say that is because it did not linger long enough to deluge the islands with rain that can cause the widespread flooding and mudslides that often lead to very high death tolls."

So how many were feared, New York Times? Who are the experts?

But this is already less benign than what they were reporting 12 hours ago, namely that a major catastrophe had been averted. The NYT always backtracks slowly. I see other papers which were acting like nothing major had happened, because they only had reports of a few fatalities - the L.A. Times and the Edmonton Sun, among others - are now starting to backtrack.

Shameful (non-)reporting.

Can't find any new official posts, maybe due to fallen infraestructure in the media...


Over 100 dead, airport ruined in Tacloban after Yolanda onslaught
More than 100 bodies are lying in the streets in Tacloban City after the furious impact of Super Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan) on Friday, an aviation authority chief said Saturday. John Andrews, deputy director general of the Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines, said the Tacloban airport manager had radioed the head office in Manila to report "100-plus dead, lying in the streets, with 100 plus injured." He added that Tacloban airport is "completely ruined."
The death toll as best known currently stands at 112; 100 in Tacloban, 12 in Ormoc City. Both have been deemed reliable by officials.

EDIT: Can't do math apparently.
Quoting 459. ScottLincoln:

He just linked to the exact tweets. Others copied them verbatim. It's right there in the open that yes, Joe Bastardi is having difficulty understanding how ocean heat content works and no, Jim didn't "lie."
Bastardi either doesn't know what he is talking about, or chose to argue with Cullen just for the sake of arguing.


Yes he did. This is what he posted. I'm keeping the record straight.

358. Neapolitan 11:32 PM GMT on November 08, 2013

Did you happen to catch Bastardi's comments to Heidi Cullen on twitter? He vehemently disagrees with her that warm ocean waters and a low-shear environment fueled Haiyan's development. (He also believes the waters east of the Philippines are warm only because they haven't been "stirred" by any typhoons in the past five years. Yes, he really said that.)

The bolded part is false and is a smear.
Quoting 626. sunlinepr:
Can't find any new official posts, maybe due to fallen infraestructure in the media...


Over 100 dead, airport ruined in Tacloban after Yolanda onslaught
More than 100 bodies are lying in the streets in Tacloban City after the furious impact of Super Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan) on Friday, an aviation authority chief said Saturday. John Andrews, deputy director general of the Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines, said the Tacloban airport manager had radioed the head office in Manila to report "100-plus dead, lying in the streets, with 100 plus injured." He added that Tacloban airport is "completely ruined."


on the flip side is CNN, with all caps BODIES IN THE STREETS
Quoting 626. sunlinepr:
Can't find any new official posts, maybe due to fallen infraestructure in the media...


Over 100 dead, airport ruined in Tacloban after Yolanda onslaught
More than 100 bodies are lying in the streets in Tacloban City after the furious impact of Super Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan) on Friday, an aviation authority chief said Saturday. John Andrews, deputy director general of the Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines, said the Tacloban airport manager had radioed the head office in Manila to report "100-plus dead, lying in the streets, with 100 plus injured." He added that Tacloban airport is "completely ruined."
info is very limited so it gonna be a while before the true results get out

iam sure power and and other services are destroyed in high impact zones and sporatic outside of the less damaged regions beyond those areas


Typhoon ‘Yolanda’ leaves 100 dead in Leyte

MANILA, Philippines — One of the strongest storms on record slammed into the central Philippines, killing more than 100 people whose bodies lay in the streets of one of the hardest-hit cities, an official said Saturday.
Capt. John Andrews, deputy director general of the Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines, said more than 100 others were injured in the city of Tacloban on Leyte Island, where Typhoon Haiyan hit Friday.
With power and most communications knocked out a day after the typhoon ravaged the central region, Andrew told The Associated Press that the information about the deaths was relayed to him by his staff in Tacloban.
“The information is reliable,” he said.
Nearly 750,000 people were forced to flee their homes and damage was believed to be extensive.
Weather officials said ‘Yolanda’ had sustained winds of 235 kph (147 mph) with gusts of 275 kph (170 mph) when it made landfall. By those measurements, Haiyan would be comparable to a strong Category 4 hurricane in the U.S., nearly in the top category, a 5.
According to reports by the military, fatalities from the fury of ‘Yolanda’ where “too many” in Tacloban City in Leyte.
Armed Forces Central Command spokesman Lt. Jim Alagao said on Saturday that based on field reports from soldiers there, there were “too many” bodies scattered along the streets.
“We don’t have numbers yet but it’s many,”Alagao told INQUIRER.net in Filipino.
Alagao also said the troops were having a hard time to retrieve bodies because of fallen trees and posts that blocked the roads.
He said the city was described by the soldiers as “a total devastation” and that the soldiers in Tacloban City have already started their clearing operations and relief efforts.
Alagao said they were relying on military radios as of the moment to communicate with their troops there.
But in Samar, another area which was directly hit by ‘Yolanda,’ Alagao said they could not establish contact even through military radio.
Because of cut-off communications in the Philippines, it was impossible to know the full extent of casualties and damage. Officially, four people were listed as dead as of Saturday morning, before the latest information from Tacloban came in.
Southern Leyte Gov. Roger Mercado said the typhoon ripped roofs off houses and triggered landslides that blocked roads.
The dense clouds and heavy rains made the day seem almost as dark as night, he said.
“When you’re faced with such a scenario, you can only pray, and pray and pray,” Mercado told The Associated Press by telephone, adding that mayors in the province had not called in to report any major damage.
“I hope that means they were spared and not the other way around,” he said. “My worst fear is there will be massive loss of lives and property.”
Eduardo del Rosario, head of the disaster response agency, said the speed at which the typhoon sliced through the central islands — 40 kph (25 mph) — helped prevent its 600-kilometer (375-mile) band of rain clouds from dumping enough of their load to overflow waterways. Flooding from heavy rains is often the main cause of deaths from typhoons.
“It has helped that the typhoon blew very fast in terms of preventing lots of casualties,” regional military commander Lt. Gen. Roy Deveraturda said. He said the massive evacuation of villagers before the storm also saved many lives.
As of early Saturday, Yolanda was over West Philippine Sea and is expected to exit the Philippine area of responsibility in the afternoon.



Debris litter the road by the coastal village in Legazpi city following a storm surge brought about by powerful Typhoon Haiyan in Albay province Friday, Nov. 8, 2013, about 520 kilometers ( 325 miles) south of Manila, Philippines. The strongest typhoon this year slammed into the central Philippines on Friday, setting off landslides and knocking out power and communication lines in several provinces.
Quoting 622. sunlinepr:


thanks, looks like we can't trust everything posted on the net...

have to do the homework of double, triple checking...


I saw the same video pasted in some "footage from Cyclone Phailin in India"
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think this was posted earlier, but here it is again. The winds get fierce at 1:52 in.



The winds actually snaps a palm tree. One of the strongest trees. That just shows the awesome power of the winds.
Quoting 632. opal92nwf:

I saw the same video pasted in some "footage from Cyclone Phailin in India"
its rather cheesy thing to do no but I guess they do it to get the hits
Topo map of Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia

 photo Indochina-Hypsometry-Topographic-Map-19701_zps6d2eee5c.jpg

Elevations quickly go to 4000 feet and above, although current track means it could skirt along coast on east side of mountains and make almost a direct (inland) hit on Hanoi.

Conditions in southern Vietnam (Nha Trang): north breeze, 10-15 knots, mostly cloudy, hot. Still a perfectly good beach day.
Quoting 633. AussieStorm:


The winds actually snap a palm tree. One of the strongest trees. That just shows the awesome power of the winds.
I think there was a lot things snapped aussie

Quoting 630. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
info is very limited so it gonna be a while before the true results get out

iam sure power and and other services are destroyed in high impact zones and sporatic outside of the less damaged regions beyond those areas

It would be interesting if they took google earth pictures of that area shortly after the storm.
Quoting 637. opal92nwf:

It would be interesting if they took google earth pictures of that area shortly after the storm.



would be nice
Question: CNN keeps throwing around this bizarre statistic about how "Super Typhoon Haiyan packed a wallop on Philippine structures 3.5 times more forceful than Hurricane Katrina did in New Orleans in 2005"—it's now on their front page. How are they coming up with this?

Originally, I was thinking it was a crazy overstatement, since Katrina's landfall intensity was 130 or 140 mph (depending if you're talking the Pass Christian or the Buras landfall). 195 mph is 1.5 times 130 mph, so 2.25 as forceful. But then I realized the "in New Orleans" part of the quote (which proves it's a total gimmick—why would we compare the top winds in Haiyan to the winds fifty miles to the weak side of Katrina?). But winds in New Orleans were barely sustained at hurricane force. So 195 mph is 2.6 times 75 mph, or 6.76 times as forceful. What gives?
Looks like the eye popped back out. Wind shear is moderate in the South China Sea.
Quoting 639. FlyingScotsman:
Question: CNN keeps throwing around this bizarre statistic about how "Super Typhoon Haiyan packed a wallop on Philippine structures 3.5 times more forceful than Hurricane Katrina did in New Orleans in 2005"—it's now on their front page. How are they coming up with this?

Originally, I was thinking it was a crazy overstatement, since Katrina's landfall intensity was 130 or 140 mph (depending if you're talking the Pass Christian or the Buras landfall). 195 mph is 1.5 times 130 mph, so 2.25 as forceful. But then I realized the "in New Orleans" part of the quote (which proves it's a total gimmick—why would we compare the top winds in Haiyan to the winds fifty miles to the weak side of Katrina?). But winds in New Orleans were barely sustained at hurricane force. So 195 mph is 2.6 times 75 mph, or 6.76 times as forceful. What gives?


They're using "New Orleans" very loosely to mean wherever the strongest winds were, since they were reasonably close to N.O. See, Katrina "means" New Orleans, just like Andrew means Miami, etc. - it's just the way sloppy-minded people think.
Quoting 598. CosmicEvents:
$185 a year?
Only an idiot would pay that....for what? Advance warning that only JB has?
Better to send the $185 to The Philippines and get your weather here.
Although I'm not the customer, WeatherBell does have a nice colors on their models...


Oz Cyclone Chasers

Damage photos are starting to filter through social media from the impact zones in the Phillipines. I am completly unsure of where this photo is from, however I could probably say by looking at the damage that this area didnt get the 370kmhr wind gusts and 300kmhr sustained winds. I would have expected much more damage from that type of wind strength. Im sure at some stage today we will get some images filtering in from the worst impacted zones. At OCC we are expecting *moon landscapes*. A term used in the weather community that refers to a category 5 crossing point where trees are stripped bare, grass is ripped from the ground etc.

Also a point I may add as it is slightly concerning is that our mates who would have copped the full brunt of this system have made no connection to the internet for 24 hours. As we all remember James reynolds ( typhoon hunter ) and Josh from Icyclone chased this beast and set up directly in its path while giving us up to date info on conditions.

While we have full confidence that the boys are okay. They are veterens I may add! It would just be great news to know that they are okay and came unscathed through this storm. So lets hope we hear from the boys today and that they are okay!! We know as much as you guys are are itching to know they are okay:)


Are you kidding me
Quoting 607. ncstorm:
00z GFS Snow map..


I'm a Florida guy in Asheville at the moment , and I'm excited about this possibility . :)
Quoting 641. LesBonsTemps:


They're using "New Orleans" very loosely to mean wherever the strongest winds were, since they were reasonably close to N.O. See, Katrina "means" New Orleans, just like Andrew means Miami, etc. - it's just the way sloppy-minded people think.


Right, but in that case, 3.5 times is way too high. Did you read everything I wrote?
Quoting 644. nwobilderburg:


Are you kidding me


nope. the Philippines could have its last name (Zoraida) on their list of names next week. They might have to go into back-up names this year with a little over a month of the year left.
Quoting 645. weatherskink:


I'm a Florida guy in Asheville at the moment , and I'm excited about this possibility . :)
I'm in Asheville currently as well :)
Quoting 643. AussieStorm:


Oz Cyclone Chasers

Damage photos are starting to filter through social media from the impact zones in the Phillipines. I am completly unsure of where this photo is from, however I could probably say by looking at the damage that this area didnt get the 370kmhr wind gusts and 300kmhr sustained winds. I would have expected much more damage from that type of wind strength. Im sure at some stage today we will get some images filtering in from the worst impacted zones.


That picture is from Ormoc City. Was posted earlier today. They would've gotten max winds there of probably 145 mph, being on the SW side, and after passage across Leyte had already knocked down top winds a lot.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3A
DEEP DEPRESSION ARB01-2013
8:30 AM IST November 9 2013
======================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, The deep depression in the early morning lays centered near 8.0N 52.5E, about 390 km south southeast of Ras Binnah, Somalia, 520 km south southwest of Socotra Island, Yemen and 2250 km west southwest of Minicoy, Lakshadweep.

The system would intensify into a cyclonic storm during next 12 hrs. It would move nearly westwards and cross Somalia coast between latitude 7.5N and 8.5N by Sunday evening/night.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.0. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection seen over the area between 6.0N to 12.0N west of 54.0E and Somalia coast. The associated convection has increased gradually with respect to height and organization during the past 12 hours along the northern periphery. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -77C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The state of the sea is very rough around the center. The central pressure of the deep depression is 1002 hPa.
Quoting 649. FlyingScotsman:


That picture is from Ormoc City. Was posted earlier today. They would've gotten max winds there of probably 145 mph, being on the SW side, and after passage across Leyte had already knocked down top winds a lot.
because Haiyan was moving about 20 mph or so, the NE side should have 180 mph sustained. Myself, I don't think this is any stronger than 160 mph sustained at landfall.
Study Finds Climate Link to Atmospheric-River Storms
Animation of the atmospheric-river event.




Animation of the atmospheric-river event. This animation shows an atmospheric river event over Dec. 18-20, 2010. High-altitude winds pull large amounts of water vapor (yellow and orange) from the tropical ocean near Hawaii and carry it straight to California. Image Credit: Anthony Wimmers and Chris Velden, University of Wisconsin-CI
› Larger image

November 08, 2013

PASADENA, Calif. - A new NASA-led study of atmospheric-river storms from the Pacific Ocean may help scientists better predict major winter snowfalls that hit West Coast mountains and lead to heavy spring runoff and sometimes flooding.

Atmospheric rivers -- short-lived wind tunnels that carry water vapor from the tropical oceans to mid-latitude land areas -- are prolific producers of rain and snow on California's Sierra Nevada mountains. The finding, published in the journal Water Resources Research, has major implications for water management in the West, where Sierra runoff is used for drinking water, agriculture and hydropower.

The research team studied how two of the most common atmospheric circulation patterns in the Northern Hemisphere interact with atmospheric rivers. They found when those patterns line up in a certain way, they create a virtual freeway that leads the moisture-laden winds straight to the Sierras.

Bin Guan of the Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, a collaboration between NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., and UCLA, led a team of scientists from NASA, UCLA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on this research.

An atmospheric river is a narrow stream of wind, about a mile (1.6 kilometers) high and sometimes of hurricane strength. Crossing the warm tropical Pacific in a few days, it becomes laden with water vapor. A moderate-sized atmospheric river carries as much water as the Mississippi River dumps into the Gulf of Mexico in an average week. When the river comes ashore and stalls over higher terrain, the water falls as snow or rain.

"Atmospheric rivers are the bridge between climate and West Coast snow," said Guan. "If scientists can predict these atmospheric patterns with reasonable lead times, we'll have a better understanding of water availability and flooding in the region." The benefit of improving flood prediction alone would be significant. A single California atmospheric-river storm in 1999 caused 15 deaths and $570 million in damage................


More

Link
Quoting 646. FlyingScotsman:


Right, but in that case, 3.5 times is way too high. Did you read everything I wrote?


Well, working backwards, the square root of 3.5 is 1.87, so if we take 130 and multiply by 1.87 we get 243 mph for Haiyan - OK, that's a little high. And at 200, we go down to 107 for Katrina - a little low. So, yeah, there's a bit of fudging in there even allowing that Katrina "means" New Orleans - but not too much.

Also, F=MV^2, and even though that analyzes the V part I'm not sure how the M might differ.
I think this is an important point to make:

The maximum intensity of this phenomenal Typhoon was entirely derived from estimates based on the Dvorak technique. There were no recon missions to confirm the 195 mph MSW satellite derived estimates. Consequently, there is no way to know, definitively, whether that estimate was the actual intensity of the storm.

Furthermore, there have been countless instances of documented cases where there have been some relatively significant differences between the satellite derived estimates and those measured directly by recon observations. Even then, there are often times discrepancies between the advisory estimated intensity, based on actual in-situ recon data , and those observed and/or estimated on the ground.

The main point being that I think it's somewhat scientifically irresponsible to state unequivocally that this storm was the strongest land falling TC in world history. A more accurate, and more responsible statement, would be that it might have been the strongest land falling TC in world history. Of course, that doesn't even account for the lack of meteorological data and resources to even ascertain the peak intensity of the world's strongest TCs going back much further than the past 30 years.

Quoting 646. FlyingScotsman:


Right, but in that case, 3.5 times is way too high. Did you read everything I wrote?


It is a rule of thumb that the dynamic pressure of the wind on objects at hurricane strength and above doubles for every ten mile per hour increase in wind. So, a 190 mph wind would "compute" to exerting 3.5 times the air pressure as a 155 mph wind. (All other factors being equal.).

Now, with Yolanda, the northern eyewall crossed over land near Guiuan two hours before it hit Tacolban City; so it is possible (not certain, though) that the maximum winds decreased in that northern eyewall by 10, 20, or even 40 mph - but still of category #5 intensity.

Also, what occurred in downtown Tacloban might be 20-40 mph less than occurred just 5-8 miles south of there in the southern edge of the city. Each tropical cyclone is different: in one the max winds might be 1 mile from the edge of the eye (like Charley, 2004), or two miles (Andrew, 1992), in another, 5 miles from the edge of the eye. It is likely, though, that the town of Palo (six miles south of Tacloban) got the full force of what Yolanda had to offer at the time - on either side of the eye.

The aftermath surveys by engineers / meteorologists will provide the most accurate estimate of winds that occurred at each locale.
http://www.rappler.com/nation/43285-initial-repor ts-damage-tacloban-city

"According to the station manager the airport is completely ruined."
Andrews also told dzMM that clearing operations at the Tacloban City airport began at 5 am after airport operations there were completely down. "The news I received is there was nothing left of the Tacloban airport but the runway," he said.
Rappler's Rupert Ambil, who arrived at the Daniel Z. Romualdez airport, reported a lack of public transportation for relief workers. This forces everyone to walk from the airport to the provincial capitol, he said. It also makes relief efforts and supply deliveries more difficult.
While communication remains limited and reports remain sketchy and inaccurate, National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) spokesman Rey Balido told dzMM radio in an interview on Saturday morning, they have gotten "initial contact" from their team in the city Friday night, November 8.
"They said the damage inflicted by super typhoon Yolanda was severe," he said in the interview. "They said there are barely any houses [left] standing."
Balido said a few buildings reportedly remain intact but that most houses were crushed by fallen trees. He said they are still trying to determine the exact number of casualties.
"Our team there said many died but they were unable to tell us how many," he said. [...]
A journalist on the ground in Tacloban described chaos in the wake of Typhoon Yolanda, with "a lot of wounded" from the typhoon and hospitals unable to treat everyone due to the number of injured. The reporter also noted "looting everywhere" as people in Tacloban scramble for supplies, such as water.
The city was previously cut off completely from all contact to the outside world, and government officials were at a loss as to the extent of damage in the city.
In a separate interview with radio dzBB, Secretary to the Cabinet Rene Almendras backed Balido's statement saying he also received reports of massive damage in Tacloban City, which led to the government's decision to send a C-130 flight with relief goods to the city."

Barely any houses standing!!? That's a provincial capital with 220,000 people... 
In addition, one also needs to consider the very porous conditions of the vast majority of structures in this region-not remotely comparable to the building codes required for our coastal communities. With this in mind, it wouldn't take even a category four (theoretically even less) TC to completely demolish (not simply heavily damage) these shanties, so to speak.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST November 9 2013
====================================

The low pressure area over Andaman Sea and neighborhood persists.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #45
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON HAIYAN (T1330)
15:00 PM JST November 9 2013
===================================

South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Haiyan (940 hPa) located at 13.5N 114.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 17 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
270 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.9N 108.2E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
48 HRS: 20.3N 105.6E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Overland Vietnam
72 HRS: 22.7N 104.4E - Tropical Depression Overland Vietnam
Quoting 656. no1der:
http://www.rappler.com/nation/43285-initial-repor ts-damage-tacloban-city

"According to the station manager the airport is completely ruined."
Andrews also told dzMM that clearing operations at the Tacloban City airport began at 5 am after airport operations there were completely down. "The news I received is there was nothing left of the Tacloban airport but the runway," he said.
Rappler's Rupert Ambil, who arrived at the Daniel Z. Romualdez airport, reported a lack of public transportation for relief workers. This forces everyone to walk from the airport to the provincial capitol, he said. It also makes relief efforts and supply deliveries more difficult.
While communication remains limited and reports remain sketchy and inaccurate, National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) spokesman Rey Balido told dzMM radio in an interview on Saturday morning, they have gotten "initial contact" from their team in the city Friday night, November 8.
"They said the damage inflicted by super typhoon Yolanda was severe," he said in the interview. "They said there are barely any houses [left] standing."
Balido said a few buildings reportedly remain intact but that most houses were crushed by fallen trees. He said they are still trying to determine the exact number of casualties.
"Our team there said many died but they were unable to tell us how many," he said. [...]
A journalist on the ground in Tacloban described chaos in the wake of Typhoon Yolanda, with "a lot of wounded" from the typhoon and hospitals unable to treat everyone due to the number of injured. The reporter also noted "looting everywhere" as people in Tacloban scramble for supplies, such as water.
The city was previously cut off completely from all contact to the outside world, and government officials were at a loss as to the extent of damage in the city.
In a separate interview with radio dzBB, Secretary to the Cabinet Rene Almendras backed Balido's statement saying he also received reports of massive damage in Tacloban City, which led to the government's decision to send a C-130 flight with relief goods to the city."

Barely any houses standing!!? That's a provincial capital with 220,000 people... 


Not surprising given that it states that most houses were crushed by falling trees-biggest danger in high wind events. Of course, the storm surge is an entirely different matter.
How can one be certain how this storm ranks without pressure and anemometer readings at the height of the storm?
Quoting 661. SewaneeWeather:
How can one be certain how this storm ranks without pressure and anemometer readings at the height of the storm?

We can not be certain at this time that somebody may have some details of speeds and pressure.
There are millions of people involved there and some of them may have had equipment monitoring things.
It wont be official but it will be better than nothing as indications are always significant. Plus in future times who knows what type of analysis equipment will be available to sift through all the information which has been gathered by satellite's etc.
Investigatory science is full of people going over the past not just archaeologist's?
looks like the 2004 tsunami

Stormchaser James Reynolds @typhoonfury is ok
Mark, Josh & I are safe, evacced to Cebu on air force C130. Tacloban devastated, death & destruction everywhere #YolandaPH #Haiyan
664: just read that too on FB. At least one accounted for...must have been terrible.
Quoting 651. Bluestorm5:
because Haiyan was moving about 20 mph or so, the NE side should have 180 mph sustained. Myself, I don't think this is any stronger than 160 mph sustained at landfall.


It is not so simple as to add the forward motion to the advertised satellite estimation of max wind (or recon. measured wind in the Atlantic.). The max winds measured by aircraft, are NOT the max winds minus or plus the forward speed; they are the max. winds, period. In GENERAL, yes the winds are quite often stronger on the right front quadrant (about 2/3 of the time); but not mile for mile higher as a function of the forward motion. It is somewhere in the vicinity, on average, of about half that amount. This is from observational data; and might not conform to theory.

One of several factors is that here is often a vort. max that rotates around and around the eye in the wall cloud, and sometimes it doesn't happen to be in the NE quadrant when the eye makes landfall.

My statement is mostly derived from a detailed written explanation of this very phenomena from the NHC science advisor not long ago; and also from personally intercepting and observing over 70 hurricanes near the shoreline over the years.
Quoting 666. canebeard:


It is not so simple as to add the forward motion to the advertised satellite estimation of max wind (or recon. measured wind in the Atlantic.). The max winds measured by aircraft, are NOT the max winds minus or plus the forward speed; they are the max. winds, period. In GENERAL, yes the winds are quite often stronger on the right front quadrant (about 2/3 of the time); but not mile for mile higher based on the forward motion. It is somewhere in the vicinity, on average, of about half that amount. This is from observational data; and might not conform to theory.

One of several factors is that here is often a vort. max that rotates around and around the eye in the wall cloud, and sometimes it doesn't happen to be in the NE quadrant when the eye makes landfall.

My statement is mostly derived from a detailed written explanation of this very phenomena from the NHC science advisor not long ago; and also from personally intercepting and observing over 70 hurricanes near the shoreline over the years.


Agreed... friction definitely makes it more complicated than simply adding the two together.
Good Morning Folks!....................




I'm reading some of the tweets from James Reynolds. It's not painting a pretty picture. He's saying possibly 1000's dead in villages south of Tacloban City. Also surge water almost made it to 2nd floor.


@AstroKarenN Typhoon Haiyan.November 9
The scene of the destruction reminds me of the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake.
Quoting 607. ncstorm:
00z GFS Snow map..


That map makes me sad. I'm in NW NC and it's looking like a dusting or less for the majority of NC. The ECMWF model seems to be off to a pathetic start to winter season as well. This the latest from Blacksburg... TRENDS IN THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LESS SNOW FOR OUR AREA BEHIND
DEPARTING CLIPPER AND DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS
The WFP is now accepting donations for Haiyan.
Link
674. MPI88
Quoting 655. canebeard:

The aftermath surveys by engineers / meteorologists will provide the most accurate estimate of winds that occurred at each locale.


Given there still is something to survey. As a trained engineering professional I am rather confident these surveys are not going to beat the accuracy of satellite observations.

Post-surveys will give us a range. Perhaps a range like 180 - 200 mph. They won't be able to tell the difference between 190 and 195. Given the intensity of Haiyan, I doubt the hurricane-oriented satellite can.

Does it matter whether it was 190 or 195mph?

And we still use the 1/2 times forward velocity modifier in the initial guess these days.
Post from AmericanWX
(Josh was with James Reynolds)

quote:


Josh just posted this on his iCyclone page.

"First off, Tacloban City is devastated. The city is a horrid landscape of smashed buildings and completely defoliated trees, with widespread looting and unclaimed bodies decaying in the open air. The typhoon moved fast and didn't last long-- only a few hours-- but it struck the city with absolutely terrifying ferocity. At the height of the storm, as the wind rose to a scream, as windows exploded and as our solid-concrete downtown hotel trembled from the impact of flying debris, as pictures blew off the walls and as children became hysterical, a tremendous storm surge swept the entire downtown. Waterfront blocks were reduced to heaps of rubble. In our hotel, trapped first-floor guests smashed the windows of their rooms to keep from drowning and screamed for help, and we had to drop our cameras and pull them out on mattresses and physically carry the elderly and disabled to the second floor. Mark's leg was ripped open by a piece of debris and he'll require surgery. The city has no communication with the outside world. The hospitals are overflowing with the critically injured. The surrounding communities are mowed down. After a bleak night in a hot, pitch-black, trashed hotel, James, Mark, and I managed to get out of the city on a military chopper and get to Cebu via a C-130-- sitting next to corpses in body bags. Meteorologically, Super Typhoon HAIYAN was fascinating; from a human-interest standpoint, it was utterly ghastly. It's been difficult to process."
Just posted by James Reynolds....


Filipino news is currently on this link. Showing a lot of the damage done by Haiyan.

@twc_hurricane: Just spoke with @ExtremeStorms(Jim Edds) in Tacloban. "They need to park a ship off the coast. Relief is needed here. Now."
Good morning, but not a good morning at all with those horrible news from Tacloban.

Here once again is the twitter feed of James Reynolds (typhoonfury). I'm glad to hear that at least his team and other photographers survived.

BBL

Airport Tacloban


Cars and motorcycles were swept into a rice field



Source of the pics (BBC).
National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council deceased count now at 134.
Absolutely horrific news beginning to trickle out of the area - and unfortunately it was expected :/ And while Tacloban and the surrounding area are devastated and surely hundreds if not thousands are dead, I am even more concerned for the communities along the north coast of the gulf, which the eyewall skirted for at least an hour - and especially for the city of Guiuan (pop. 40,000), which was right on the eastern coast and got hit first with the full force of the storm... Potentially all gone
I'm glad James Reynolds and the other storm chasers are alive, of course, but then again, if you're going to chase a monster, you have to deal with the consequences of catching it, so it's really hard for me to be too concerned for them. No, it's not that group I was and am worried about; after all, they get to board boats or planes soon and head back to their homes, with their walls and roofs and electricity and running water and all. No, I'm far more concerned with the hundreds of thousands of Filipinos who now have no roofs, no walls; who have no homes at all and nowhere to go but, if they're lucky, eventually a cramped and dirty tent staked to the mud in the middle of a massive, storm-flattened moonscape.

Red Cross Haiyan page
It appears that the JMA is tracking a TD at the location below.

Awfully close to the equator isn't it?

I believe this is the system in mind. Is the Corilois effect strong enough to give the TD a spin? Only a few systems have formed close to the equator that intensified to at least TS strength. Typhoon Vamei is one of them in 2001.
Quoting 639. FlyingScotsman:
Question: CNN keeps throwing around this bizarre statistic about how "Super Typhoon Haiyan packed a wallop on Philippine structures 3.5 times more forceful than Hurricane Katrina did in New Orleans in 2005"—it's now on their front page. How are they coming up with this?

Originally, I was thinking it was a crazy overstatement, since Katrina's landfall intensity was 130 or 140 mph (depending if you're talking the Pass Christian or the Buras landfall). 195 mph is 1.5 times 130 mph, so 2.25 as forceful. But then I realized the "in New Orleans" part of the quote (which proves it's a total gimmick—why would we compare the top winds in Haiyan to the winds fifty miles to the weak side of Katrina?). But winds in New Orleans were barely sustained at hurricane force. So 195 mph is 2.6 times 75 mph, or 6.76 times as forceful. What gives?


It is a logrythmic function.. I don't recall the actual numbers, but something like for every 20 mph, the energy doubles.. I'm sure someone here can give you better numbers.
689. MPI88
Quoting 688. indianrivguy:


It is a logrythmic function.. I don't recall the actual numbers, but something like for every 20 mph, the energy doubles.. I'm sure someone here can give you better numbers.


It's even more simple than that: the energy increases with the square of the velocity. A 20m/s wind packs 4 times as much energy as a 10m/s wind.

130 -> 195 is 1.5 times as "fast" and thereby 1.5^2 = 2.3 times as powerful

As it is CNN statistics I suspect it is a Wikipedia based Guesstimate.
Quoting MoltenIce:
It appears that the JMA is tracking a TD at the location below.

Awfully close to the equator isn't it?

I believe this is the system in mind. Is the Corilois effect strong enough to give the TD a spin? Only a few systems have formed close to the equator that intensified to at least TS strength. Typhoon Vamei is one of them in 2001.


STY Bopha formed close to the EQ. 0.6N



No words needed for this image.
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 51 degrees with a drop finally in humidity which is only 77%.

My heart goes out to the people of the Philippines. I pray they can get the aid needed there to them as soon as possible.

Breakfast is on the sideboard: steak, eggs and hash browns, Belgian waffles with strawberries or powdered sugar, croissants, creamy oatmeal with blueberries, egg and sausage casserole, cinnamon streusel coffee cake, omelets with cheese, mushrooms, peppers and dice ham or bacon, cheesy grits and shrimp, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!

I only wish it were as simple to send real food and water to those who are so in need after Haiyan.
Jeff Gammons ‏@StormVisuals 9m
Update: Just got word from @ExtremeStorms(Jim Edds) still in Tacloban. Mass casualties from surge. People need food and water desperately. #Haiyan

...cont. Jim passed along via SatPhone he is still trying to get a boat out of Taclaban.
Quoting 691. aislinnpaps:
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 51 degrees with a drop finally in humidity which is only 77%.

My heart goes out to the people of the Philippines. I pray they can get the aid needed there to them as soon as possible.

Breakfast is on the sideboard: steak, eggs and hash browns, Belgian waffles with strawberries or powdered sugar, croissants, creamy oatmeal with blueberries, egg and sausage casserole, cinnamon streusel coffee cake, omelets with cheese, mushrooms, peppers and dice ham or bacon, cheesy grits and shrimp, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!

I only wish it were as simple to send real food and water to those who are so in need after Haiyan.


Good Morning aislin..
I also will send my breakfast on to Haiyan victims..
If it were possible..
52 degrees here with 68%rh..
Quoting pcola57:


Good Morning aislin..
I also will send my breakfast on to Haiyan victims..
If it were possible..
52 degrees here with 68%rh..


63.9°F here in Sydney with Relative Humidity: 73%
seeing lots of signs of cat 4 damage but cat 5? i thought cat 5 effects were like a bulldozer not just some tin flying around
Detailed article regarding Tacloban and the devastation there. It's quite sad. Not sure if it's already been posted.

Tacloban Diary: I saw death, I fear anarchy

From Rappler.com
View of the Airport Termninal in Tacloban.

Super typhoon Yolanda / Haiyan Aftermath Tacloban City 9th November 2013

Quoting 695. islander101010:
seeing lots of signs of cat 4 damage but cat 5? i thought cat 5 effects were like a bulldozer not just some tin flying around


WHAT are you talking about - either you have no idea on damage levels, or just simply trolling - in any case, spare us your thoughts
'Yolanda' kills hundreds in devastated Visayas

by Noel Celis, AFP
Posted at 11/09/2013 8:17 PM | Updated as of 11/09/2013 8:17 PM
TACLOBAN - One of the strongest typhoons on record likely killed hundreds of people as tsunami-like waves and savage winds flattened entire communities in the Philippines, authorities said Saturday.

Super Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan) tore into the eastern islands of Leyte and Samar on Friday with sustained winds of around 315 kilometres (195 miles) an hour, then tormented millions of people as it ripped across the Southeast Asian archipelago.

After reaching the devastated fishing town of Palo in Leyte by helicopter, Energy Secretary Jericho Petilla said he believed "hundreds" of people had died just in that area.

Petilla, a Palo native, was dispatched by President Benigno Aquino to survey the island and said there were similar scenes of carnage in three other cities or towns in Leyte.

"They all looked the same. The roofs were off all the buildings they were littered with fallen trees," he said.

But authorities said they had no idea just how many people had died, with Yolanda causing major damage across a 600-kilometre stretch of islands through the central Philippines.

Some of the worst-hit areas on Leyte and Samar, isolated by destroyed power and communication lines as well as damaged roads, had yet to be contacted.

More than four million people were affected across 36 provinces, the government said.

Aside from the ferocious winds, Yolanda generated storm surges that saw waves three metres (10 feet) high swamp coastal towns and power inland.

"This is destruction on a massive scale. There are cars thrown like tumble weed and the streets are strewn with debris," said Sebastian Rhodes Stampa, the head of a United Nations disaster assessment coordination team.

"The last time I saw something of this scale was in the aftermath of the Indian Ocean tsunami," he said, referring to the 2004 disaster that claimed about 220,000 lives.

Stampa made his comments after arriving in Tacloban, the destroyed capital of Leyte with a population of about 220,000 people that is about 10 kilometres from Palo.

More than 100 bodies were littered in and around Tacloban's airport, according to the facility's manager.

AFP journalists who arrived in Tacloban on a military aircraft encountered dazed survivors wandering amid the carnage who were asking for water, while others sorted through what was left of their destroyed homes.

One resident, Dominador Gullena, cried as he recounted to AFP his escape but the loss of his neighbours.

"My family evacuated the house. I thought our neighbours also did the same, but they didn't," Gullena said.

Eight bodies had been laid to rest inside Tacloban airport's chapel, which had also been badly damaged, according to an AFP photographer.

One woman knelt on the flood-soaked floor of the church while holding the hand of a dead boy, who had been placed on a wooden pew.

Race to reach devastated communities

The military, government officials and relief workers raced to survey and provide aid to dozens of other communities across the path of destruction.

One area of concern yet to be reached was Guiuan, a fishing town of about 40,000 people on Samar that was the first to be hit after Haiyan swept in from the Pacific Ocean.

Philippines Red Cross chief Gwendolyn Pang also said relief workers were trying to get to Capiz province, about 200 kilometres west of Tacloban, on Panay island.

She said most of Capiz's infrastructure had been destroyed and many houses "flattened to the ground".

Fifteen thousand soldiers were in the disaster zones and helping in the rescue effort, military spokesman Lieutenant-Colonel Ramon Zagala told AFP.

Zagala said helicopters were flying rescuers into priority areas, while infantry units deployed across the affected areas were also proceeding on foot or in military trucks.

Haiyan's wind strength, which remained close to 300 kilometres an hour throughout Friday, made it the strongest typhoon in the world this year and one of the most intense ever recorded.

It exited into the South China Sea on Saturday and tracked towards Vietnam, where more than 100,000 people had begun evacuating from vulnerable areas, Vietnamese state media reported.

Philippine authorities had expressed confidence on Friday that only a few people had been killed, citing two days of intense preparation efforts led by President Aquino.

Nearly 800,000 people in danger zones had been moved to evacuation centres, while thousands of boats across the archipelago were ordered to remain secured at ports. Hundreds of flights were also cancelled.

"The president is asking why there were still fatalities," Cabinet Secretary Rene Almendras told reporters.

An average of 20 major storms or typhoons, many of them deadly, batter the Philippines each year as they emerge from the Pacific Ocean.

The Philippines suffered the world's strongest storm of 2012, when Typhoon Bopha left about 2,000 people dead or missing on the southern island of Mindanao.
Quoting 686. Neapolitan:
I'm glad James Reynolds and the other storm chasers are alive, of course, but then again, if you're going to chase a monster, you have to deal with the consequences of catching it, so it's really hard for me to be too concerned for them. No, it's not that group I was and am worried about; after all, they get to board boats or planes soon and head back to their homes, with their walls and roofs and electricity and running water and all. No, I'm far more concerned with the hundreds of thousands of Filipinos who now have no roofs, no walls; who have no homes at all and nowhere to go but, if they're lucky, eventually a cramped and dirty tent staked to the mud in the middle of a massive, storm-flattened moonscape.

Red Cross Haiyan page


have to say I pretty much agree with you there. Though nice to see they do at least help while there. But yeah, more concern for those living there. Glad the chasers are ok though, and hope they at least got some scientific measurements than just thrill seeking.



Thanks much to Aussiestorm, Barb and CRC for all the links this morn, much appreciated! :)
Quoting islander101010:
seeing lots of signs of cat 4 damage but cat 5? i thought cat 5 effects were like a bulldozer not just some tin flying around


So you can tell from photo's and video's of which is cat 4 and which is cat 5 damage?? oh palease give it a rest. Cyclones are not like Tornadoes. Which you should know.
703. MPI88
Quoting 701. mitthbevnuruodo:


have to say I pretty much agree with you there. Though nice to see they do at least help while there. But yeah, more concern for those living there. Glad the chasers are ok though, and hope they at least got some scientific measurements than just thrill seeking.


These chasers do an invaluable and much appreciated job in communicating the impact of this event to the outside world. Time means lives under these circumstances, and the sooner the impact is know, the faster the international response.

I highly doubt the Philippines are able to provide short-term aid on such scale. Even large Westerly countries such as the USA, with virtually unlimited funds, are hardly able to do so by themselves.
CNN saying d toll going way up unfortunately.
WELL one thing humans have learned a good lesson here..when one of these monster storms is coming your way,dont ride it out,get to the shelters..AND..over there they really do need to strengthen building codes a whole lot..you dont ride out a monster cat-5 storm
Quoting 704. GatorWX:
CNN saying d toll going way up unfortunately.

1,200 per the Red Cross.

http://rt.com/news/typhoon-cyclone-dead-philippin es-463/
well here we are awaiting the cold front later next week..
All those news and pictures coming in from ground zero areas in the Philippines are the uttermost horror. I'm lacking words to comment on it. As well I see first numbers of hundreds of fatalities at the coast of Eastern Samar. I'm going to donate of course, as it's the only thing to help I can do.

Caritas Manila, Inc. @CaritasManila
USD BANK ACCTs: BPI #3064-0033-55 (swift code BOPI PH MM) PNB #10-856-660002-5 (swift code PNB MPH MM) Donate thru http://caritasmanila.org.ph

Twitter feed
winter this year is early and maybe brutal in the coming months..
From Miami NWS Disco...

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A STRONG COLD
FRONT COULD ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES FROM THE NORTH LATER ON
TUESDAY WITH A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WHICH WILL BRING A COLDER AIR MASS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES BY MID WEEK BUT THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE
THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE IMPACT ON
SOUTH FLORIDA ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THE LARGEST IMPACT WILL
LIKELY BE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BUILDING INTO THE REGION WITH AN
INCREASE IN THE GULF AND ATLANTIC SEAS.
James Reynolds ‏@typhoonfury
Evac out of Tacloban on Air Force C130 with injured team member Mark, his leg sliced open rescuing woman #YolandaPH

At least 1,200 dead in super-typhoon Haiyan - Philippines Red Cross (Russia Today)

Unfortunately looking at the photos and reading the first reports, this toll will likely rise further, especially as hard to reach communities south of Tacloban and especially along the coast are eventually reached... Note the photo with the bridge in the article above - I imagine the storm surge reached the road or maybe even came on top to do such tremendous damage to a reinforced concrete structure?
Based on the NHC's hurricane damage potential number--which have been normalized for the USA and do not apply to the Philippines--the 3.5 number actually understates Haiyan's destructive potential. To wit:

Katrina made landfall near Buras-Triumph at 125 mph, and on the mainland at 120 mph. Based on the NHC's numbers, a 120 mph storm has the potential to cause 43 times the damage of a 75 mph storm, while a 125 mph storm has the potential to cause 60 times the damage of a 75 mph storm.

The damage potential of a storm similar to Haiyan making US landfall at "just" 190 mph would have been around 1,696 times that of a 75 mph storm, or between roughly 28 and 39 times as great as Katrina at landfall, or around 1.9 times as great as Katrina at her peak of 175 mph.

(If a Haiyan-class cyclone hit the US at 200mph, the storm's potential would be 256 times that of a 100mph storm, and 2,560 times that of a 75mph storm.)

Not exact numbers, but it gives you a sense of what just happened...
Quoting Neapolitan:
I'm glad James Reynolds and the other storm chasers are alive, of course, but then again, if you're going to chase a monster, you have to deal with the consequences of catching it, so it's really hard for me to be too concerned for them. No, it's not that group I was and am worried about; after all, they get to board boats or planes soon and head back to their homes, with their walls and roofs and electricity and running water and all. No, I'm far more concerned with the hundreds of thousands of Filipinos who now have no roofs, no walls; who have no homes at all and nowhere to go but, if they're lucky, eventually a cramped and dirty tent staked to the mud in the middle of a massive, storm-flattened moonscape.

Red Cross Haiyan page


Neo, I am sure if it was safe for them to stay to help and document what was happening, I am sure they would. Remember, James Reynolds went into the tsunami hit areas of Japan to document the destruction.


The Philippines Red Cross are taking donations either money or goods. My wife and I sent money to our family there so they could buy at least 200kgs of rice to take. Every little bit helps so we are doing our little bit.
Quoting 706. TropicalAnalystwx13:

1,200 per the Red Cross.

http://rt.com/news/typhoon-cyclone-dead-philippin es-463/


Yeah, that's what CNN has. I didn't want to quote it. The few pictures and videos I've seen show very considerable damage. I'm not sure any assessment has been made on the towns and villages south of Tacloban. In the days to come we'll get a better idea I think. Seems kind of early. Just the fact it went into the 1000's is concerning. Very unfortunate situation in the Philippines. Also, likely tens of thousands are now homeless.
Published on Nov 9, 2013

Super Typhoon Yolanda / Haiyan Hits Tacloban Philippines Breaking News Footage 1 - for licensing please email James (at) EarthUncut (tv) Footage as super typhoon Tacloban devastated Tacloban Philippines on 8th November 2013. Footage includes severe eyewall winds and rescue of people from flood waters. Footage copyright Earth Uncut TV, shot alongside Josh Morgerman or iCylone.com and Mark Thomas.

Quoting 714. AussieStorm:


Neo, I am sure if it was safe for them to stay to help and document what was happening, I am sure they would. Remember, James Reynolds went into the tsunami hit areas of Japan to document the destruction.


The Philippines Red Cross are taking donations either money or goods. My wife and I sent money to our family there so they could buy at least 200kgs of rice to take. Every little bit helps so we are doing our little bit.
Oh, I'm saying nothing against the chasers, and I'm not doubting that their hearts are in the right place. Heck, I would have been there if I could. No, I'm just noting the many comments here and on other fora expressing concern for their safety and well-being while hundreds of thousands of Filipinos will be stuck in the devastated areas where they'll be facing extremely dire circumstances over the next many months. That's all...
Quoting 705. LargoFl:
WELL one thing humans have learned a good lesson here..when one of these monster storms is coming your way,dont ride it out,get to the shelters..AND..over there they really do need to strengthen building codes a whole lot..you dont ride out a monster cat-5 storm


Largo, I don't think you really understand how most of the world lives. Strengthen building codes, get to a storm shelter. Get a clue.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Oh, I'm saying nothing against the chasers, and I'm not doubting that their hearts are in the right place. Heck, I would have been there if I could. No, I'm just noting the many comments here and on other fora expressing concern for their safety and well-being while hundreds of thousands of Filipinos will be stuck in the devastated areas where they'll be facing extremely dire circumstances over the next many months. That's all...


Ok, I understand what you are saying now.
Quoting 712. skycycle:
At least 1,200 dead in super-typhoon Haiyan - Philippines Red Cross (Russia Today)

Unfortunately looking at the photos and reading the first reports, this toll will likely rise further, especially as hard to reach communities south of Tacloban and especially along the coast are eventually reached... Note the photo with the bridge in the article above - I imagine the storm surge reached the road or maybe even came on top to do such tremendous damage to a reinforced concrete structure?


Wow, incredible video. So sad.
721. NCstu
In my opinion, getting the most shocking footage possible is a great way to get the international community interested. I think that the hurricane hunters have done a great service to the people in that area. There's a difference between hearing "strongest landfalling storm ever" and seeing the destruction.
I spent 9 hours in Katrina's Western Eyewall in New Orleans, near the 17th Street Canal, and I can assure any Scottsman, Irishman, Nigerian, or other that the winds were well above hurricane force most of that time.

Case in Point, the Superdome Roof, as I'd maybe look up her specs before K, and after.




Or Maybe this Video from Chalmette..that morning and evening.

Quoting LargoFl:
WELL one thing humans have learned a good lesson here..when one of these monster storms is coming your way,dont ride it out,get to the shelters..AND..over there they really do need to strengthen building codes a whole lot..you dont ride out a monster cat-5 storm


Largo, what you say is all well and good as words but the Philippines is a poor country. People build there homes out of tin and 4x2. people with a little bit more money build out of cinder block and cement. What is needed is more evac centres and better earlier forecasting and also breaking the thought that prayer will protect you from 250 km/h winds and 10 meter storm surge.
If you want to help us help those in the Philippines, Portlight is reaching out to stakeholder groups to send Durable Disability Equipment to replace those lost to the Typhoon.

Portlight Haiyan Relief Status
By: Portlight, 9:29 AM CST on November 06, 2013




Super Typhoon Hiayan ripped through the Pacific Ocean with devastating force equivalent to a category 5 hurricane. Yesterday the super typhoon made landfall thru the Philippine island of Samar with sustained winds of 195 mph and gusts of 235 mph.

In addition to the strong winds, the super typhoon is dropping massive amounts of rain. To give you some perception of this storm, Super Storm Sandy’s highest sustained winds were 115 mph making Hiayan almost twice as powerful.



“Haiyan had winds of 190 - 195 mph at landfall, making it the strongest tropical cyclone on record to make landfall in world history.” – Dr. Jeff Masters, The Weather Underground



Hiayan is expected be a category 2 storm when it makes landfall in Vietnam and Laos with wind speeds 100+ mph. It is estimated to drop 12+ inches of rain when it makes landfall. The combination of extremely high winds and excessive rain fall could make this storm the most expensive natural disaster in their history.



Portlight has begun to reach out to disability organizations to provide durable medical equipment. International relief work is very expensive because of shipping costs. This storm has the potential to be one of the most expensive and disastrous typhoons ever.

We need your help to provide this aid to those affected by this super typhoon.



Thank you for your support and we will keep you updated on our progress
Quoting Patrap:
I spent 9 hours in Katrina's Western Eyewall in New Orleans, near the 17th Street Canal, and I can assure any Scottsman, Irishman, Nigerian, or other that the winds were well above hurricane force most of that time.

Case in Point, the Superdome Roof, as I'd maybe look up her specs before K, and after.




Or Maybe this Video from Chalmette..that morning and evening.



Pat, what would New Orleans had of been like if the canal and levee walls hadn't of failed? Would it of been a whole different story?
..you dont ride out a monster cat-5 storm

"Andrew"

End quote.

Super Typhoon Haiyan video
Link
It reminds me very much of the tsunami 2004. In the beginning some casualties, some more... and suddenly the unimagenable dimensions of the catastrophe are coming through and the numebrs don't stop rising for a long time.
So many towns, villages and stretches of land haven't been reached yet. Communications broken down, roads unpassable...
Absolute horror.

And still.. because we have some contacts, we know what happens now and can pray/help/spend money, instead of hearing about it weeks/months after it happened...

My heart is with all the people down there...Be they Philipine or others. It doesn't matter - they are people and they suffer...
Quoting 725. AussieStorm:


Pat, what would New Orleans had of been like if the canal and levee walls hadn't of failed? Would it of been a whole different story?


Indeed, thus the 14.5 Billion spent since on protecting the Main Port that feeds the globe, refines and ships Crude and their products so yes..indeed.


Isaac showed us well how the new System works, but those still outside the Flood Protection system still have to be concerned with a Lingering Cat 1 or Higher as Isaac flooded 20K Homes in St. Charles Parish to NOLA's west, and in Braithwaite to the south.



ReliefWEB

Viet Nam: Typhoon Haiyan Information Bulletin n° 1

Summary

Super Typhoon Haiyan, locally named storm number 13, is expected to hit Central Viet Nam on Sunday, 10 November, after hitting the Philippines on Friday as a category-5 storm and wind strength of 230 kilometres per hour. This is said to be one of the strongest storms ever recorded, with sustained wind strength of about 195 kilometres per hour and expected to hit Viet Nam was a category -2 or 3 typhoon. It is estimated that 6.5 million people will be affected by the storm.

The situation

Within the first two weeks of October, Central Viet Nam was hit by two category-1 storms, Typhoon Wutip (storm number 10) on 30 September and Nari (storm number 11) on 15 October, leaving behind significant damages in nine provinces of Thanh Hoa, Nghe An, Ha Tinh, Quang Binh, Quang Tri, Thua Thien-Hue, Da Nang, Quang Nam and Quang Ngai. Among these, Nghe An, Ha Tinh, Quang Binh, Quang Tri and Thua Thien-Hue are suffering from the dual impacts of both storms. The total economic loss due to Nari is estimated to be VND 1.5 trillion (USD 71 million), on top of the VND 13.5 trillion (USD 663.23 million) economic loss earlier caused by Wutip.

Following these storms, Viet Nam was hit by storm number 12, and Typhoon Haiyan is forecasted to hit the same provinces affected by the previous two major storms. An estimated 6.5 million people will be affected by this typhoon, specifically in the provinces of Ha Tinh, Quang Binh, Quang Nam, Da Nang, Quang Ngai, Quang Tri and Thua Thien-Hue, specifically as follows: (see tables)

- See more at: http://reliefweb.int/report/viet-nam/viet-nam-typh oon-haiyan-information-bulletin-n%C2%B0-1#sthash.u E9IiS6c.dpuf
Quoting Starwoman:
It reminds me very much of the tsunami 2004. In the beginning some casualties, some more... and suddenly the unimagenable dimensions of the catastrophe are coming through and the numebrs don't stop rising for a long time.
So many towns, villages and stretches of land haven't been reached yet. Communications broken down, roads unpassable...
Absolute horror.

And still.. because we have some contacts, we know what happens now and can pray/help/spend money, instead of hearing about it weeks/months after it happened...

My heart is with all the people down there...Be they Philipine or others. It doesn't matter - they are people and they suffer...


Actually this is like last December when STY Bopha hit Southern Mindanao. We knew it was going to be bad but until the reports/photos/video's came out, we could only guess.
Quoting 731. AussieStorm:


Actually this is like last December when STY Bopha hit Southern Mindanao. We knew it was going to be bad but until the reports/photos/video's came out, we could only guess.


This is far worse than Bopha.
It looks to me that a new typhoon will make landfall on the Phillipines on the afternoon on Tuesday. It will hit a little more south than Yolanda, but will also continue towards Vietnam next weekend.

Does this look likely?
erik, Norway
Quoting 703. MPI88:


These chasers do an invaluable and much appreciated job in communicating the impact of this event to the outside world. Time means lives under these circumstances, and the sooner the impact is know, the faster the international response.

I highly doubt the Philippines are able to provide short-term aid on such scale. Even large Westerly countries such as the USA, with virtually unlimited funds, are hardly able to do so by themselves.


?? Didn't think I was saying anything against them. But just the same, planety of footage before theirs even got out from people living there, so not like nothing would be seen without theirs. They chase storms as thrill seekers mainly it seems, with added scientific element that they track pressure and wind speed etc. But, said am glad that at least they do help those who need it while there, so whether thrill seeking at the base, they're ok guys. But, it's not like folkes there haven't been able to get footage out without them. I'd find them more invalueable if they did get pressure and wind speed as general folkes won't be having those instruments
90W

Quoting 733. Touchy2:
It looks to me that a new typhoon will make landfall on the Phillipines on the afternoon on Tuesday. It will hit a little more south than Yolanda, but will also continue towards Vietnam next weekend.

Does this look likely?
erik, Norway


Indeed, TPW shows something new developing nearly at the equator (!). Unbelievable und very troubling.

Click to enlarge. I hope it is too much south to endanger the Philippines or any other country.
Quoting 738. barbamz:


Indeed, TPW shows something new developing nearly at the equator (!). Unbelievable und very troubling.

Click to enlarge.
Indeed.

It's to the north of Papua, kind of an unusual location for tropical cyclogenesis.
I'm still steaming about Largo's comments about stronger building codes and getting to storm shelters.

Largo, there are islands strung all through the central Philippines where people live next to the open water in rudimentary villages where people are thankful just to have electricity. There are no roads, there is no money to speak of. The idea of evacuating to safer places is ludicrous. For those people, events like these are simply not survivable.

In Vietnam, the minimum wage is $3.20 a day, and many if not most people work for less. People work all day on dangerous construction sites for $2. People go out in rickety boats in all sorts of weather in the hopes of catching a few fish.

And you're talking about building codes and storm shelters?

Largo, even here people barely have the money to catch a bus across town, much less run off to some place they aren't familiar with to cower in fear of death - fortunately the fear of death hasn't been institutionalized the way it has in Western countries.
Invest very near the equator:

90W INVEST 131109 1200 1.9N 141.1E WPAC 15 1010



WTPN33 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 14.5N 113.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 113.2E

Reading the reports coming in this morning from the Philippines are leaving me speechless. It's heart-breaking.

Has there been any reports from Guiuan?
Quoting 695. islander101010:
seeing lots of signs of cat 4 damage but cat 5? i thought cat 5 effects were like a bulldozer not just some tin flying around

According to what? It is not as easy to assess damage over pictures/video for hurricanes as it is for tornadoes. And for tornadoes, using that method is prone to non-trivial uncertainty. And this assumes that the documented pictures/video were from the hardest-hit areas.
Considering that many of those assumptions in the chain are not applicable, perhaps we should keep our speculation in check.
from one of the chasers with James Reynolds:

Meteorologically, Super Typhoon HAIYAN was fascinating; from a human-interest standpoint, it was utterly ghastly. It's been difficult to process."
-Icyclone
Quoting 654. ncforecaster:
I think this is an important point to make:

The maximum intensity of this phenomenal Typhoon was entirely derived from estimates based on the Dvorak technique. There were no recon missions to confirm the 195 mph MSW satellite derived estimates. Consequently, there is no way to know, definitively, whether that estimate was the actual intensity of the storm.

Furthermore, there have been countless instances of documented cases where there have been some relatively significant differences between the satellite derived estimates and those measured directly by recon observations. Even then, there are often times discrepancies between the advisory estimated intensity, based on actual in-situ recon data , and those observed and/or estimated on the ground.

The main point being that I think it's somewhat scientifically irresponsible to state unequivocally that this storm was the strongest land falling TC in world history. A more accurate, and more responsible statement, would be that it might have been the strongest land falling TC in world history. Of course, that doesn't even account for the lack of meteorological data and resources to even ascertain the peak intensity of the world's strongest TCs going back much further than the past 30 years.


Exactly. All we had was a best-estimate at the time of landfall, and that best-estimate was based upon more limited data than we would have had for an Atlantic basin landfall. According to that best-estimate, it would likely be the strongest known tropical cyclone to make landfall.
Understanding how the media tends to take scientific estimates and best-estimate conclusions and mess them up royally - especially after laying off most science writer staffing - we should be cautious in how we treat this preliminary information, and use qualifiers when appropriate.
Reuters





A few examples of damage in Tacloban. Extreme and widespread. Just a horrible situation! Time is going to be very precious in the coming days and I hope the help they need arrives in abundance.
Quoting 743. Ameister12:
Reading the reports coming in this morning from the Philippines are leaving me speechless. It's heart-breaking.

Has there been any reports from Guiuan?


Unfortunately not, and that is adding to worries that the death toll will be much higher than what is currently known (1,200+) :/

Those pictures show the absolute power the storm packed as it made landfall around Tacloban, one can only imagine what happened at its initial landfall location near Guiuan... Where is the troll that was earlier saying "this looks like cat4 damage not cat5" as if we are talking tornadoes... comments like that should get you banned, IMO
Quoting 747. GatorWX:
Reuters





A few examples of damage in Tacloban. Extreme and widespread. Just a horrible situation! Time is going to be very precious in the coming days and I hope the help they need arrives in abundance.
The overturned cars just show the magnitude of the winds.
Imagine if a storm like Heiyan were to slam into Miami..Don't worry take your time..
Quoting 722. Patrap:
I spent 9 hours in Katrina's Western Eyewall in New Orleans, near the 17th Street Canal, and I can assure any Scottsman, Irishman, Nigerian, or other that the winds were well above hurricane force most of that time.

Case in Point, the Superdome Roof, as I'd maybe look up her specs before K, and after.




Or Maybe this Video from Chalmette..that morning and evening.



Everything anyone could possibly want to know about Katrina (Wind gusts, storm surge, etc for different locations)


http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/reports/tech-report-2 00501z.pdf
752. MPI88
Quoting 749. MoltenIce:
The overturned cars just show the magnitude of the winds.


Above pictures look like a combination of storm surge and wind damage to me. That's based on personal experience with floods. However I might be wrong, sometimes it is hard to tell the difference.

Is the location known? Geotag?

Quoting 746. ScottLincoln:

Exactly. All we had was a best-estimate at the time of landfall, and that best-estimate was based upon more limited data than we would have had for an Atlantic basin landfall. According to that best-estimate, it would likely be the strongest known tropical cyclone to make landfall.
Understanding how the media tends to take scientific estimates and best-estimate conclusions and mess them up royally - especially after laying off most science writer staffing - we should be cautious in how we treat this preliminary information, and use qualifiers when appropriate.
It's also interesting to note that even NOAA had to admit that Haiyan was too strong for Dvorak to correctly assess it:

REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED SLIGHTLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS
BASED ON A 19C EYE THAT IS MORE CIRCULAR AND EMBEDDED IN CDG BY AT
LEAST 1 DEGREE. THIS RESULTS IN A MET THAT IS 8.0. WMG EYE IS EMBEDDED
IN CDG WHICH RESULTS IN A DT OF 7.5 AFTER 1.0 IS ADDED AS AN EYE
ADJUSTMENT. THERE IS A VERY COLD BANDING FEATURE IN ADVANCE OF THE
CENTRAL FEATURE BUT THE WARM EDGE BETWEEN THE TWO IS TECHNICALLY TOO
COLD TO ADD FOR BF. DT IS DISCOUNTED BECAUSE DVORAK TECHNIQUE MAKES
NO ALLOWANCE FOR AN EYE EMBEDDED SO DEEPLY IN CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS
CDG
FURTHERMORE ADT V8.1.4 CURRENT INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN 8.0 SINCE
1230Z. FT IS BASED ON MET FOR THESE REASONS.

And for those making comparisons with the last two most destructive tropical cyclones to hit the US, there's this from the LA Times: Typhoon Haiyan makes Sandy, Katrina look like weak cousins

Many experts said Haiyan would be historic. No one can now dispute that they were right...
Quoting 752. MPI88:


Above pictures look like a combination of storm surge and wind damage to me. That's based on personal experience with floods. However I might be wrong, sometimes it is hard to tell the difference.

Is the location known? Geotag?



I think you're right. The debris bunching like that is usually storm surge and surge almost always deposits cars on their side.
Quoting 749. MoltenIce:
The overturned cars just show the magnitude of the winds.
Mmmm not really.Their were overturned cars in Miami after Wilma hit and even in Fay.Now the debarking of trees in a tropical cyclone has caught my interest.
756. VR46L
Haiyden approach to the Philippines


 photo rb_lalo-animated_zps3780dad3.gif


Landfall


landfall rb photo rb_lalo-animated_zpsb7022df1.gif


and overland


RB Overland photo rb_lalo-animated_zps94c7f122.gif
I've always wanted to say this...Hei yan (how ya'll) doing..Please don't run me off with Tomatoes.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST November 9 2013
====================================

A low pressure area lies over northern Andaman Sea.

According to satellite imagery, The Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.0 and is centered near 14.0N 96.0E.

Associated broken low/medium clouds embedded with moderate to intense convection is seen over northern Andaman Sea.

The system may become well marked during the next 24 hours.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #47
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON HAIYAN (T1330)
21:00 PM JST November 9 2013
===================================

South China Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Haiyan (950 hPa) located at 14.4N 113.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 19 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 18.0N 107.1E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Gulf of Tonkin
48 HRS: 20.5N 105.3E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Overland Vietnam
72 HRS: 23.3N 104.1E - Tropical Depression Overland South China
No longer forecast to become HELEN..

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4A
DEEP DEPRESSION ARB01-2013
17:30 PM IST November 9 2013
======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, The deep depression over southwest Arabian Sea moved further westward and now lays centered near 8.0N 51.5E about 350 km south southeast of Ras Binnah, Somalia, 560 km south southwest of Socotra Island, Yemen and 2380 km west southwest of Minicoy, Lakshadweep.

The system would move nearly westwards and cross Somalia coast between 7.5N and 8.5N around Sunday evening (IST).

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 7.8N 50.5E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
24 HRS: 7.8N 49.5E - 25 knots (Depression)
48 HRS: 7.9N 47.5E - Low Pressure Area
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:30 PM RET November 9 2013
==================================

Within the next 2-3 days, all available numerical guidance develop a weak low between 5.0S-10.0S
and 55.0E 65.0E. None of them, including the ECMWF ensemble forecast, show significant development. This system may bring some disturbed weather over part of the Seychelles archipelago and over Agalega early next week.

Development of a tropical depression is not likely within the next 72 hours.
look at how close to the equator this "depression" is located! :O

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
21:00 PM JST November 9 2013
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 1.0N 142.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.
Report here confirms earlier rumors that the city stadium in Tacloban, serving as the main evacuation center, collapsed, with mass casualties inside.

And we thought the Superdome was bad...
Quoting 717. Neapolitan:
Oh, I'm saying nothing against the chasers, and I'm not doubting that their hearts are in the right place. Heck, I would have been there if I could. No, I'm just noting the many comments here and on other fora expressing concern for their safety and well-being while hundreds of thousands of Filipinos will be stuck in the devastated areas where they'll be facing extremely dire circumstances over the next many months. That's all...


I think some people were considering the relationship between the safety of the chasers and the safety of the populace they were with. If experienced chasers were killed it would indicate much worse prospects for the rest of the population, conversely if they got through it it would suggest a little hope for others in the area.

Washingtonian's thought experiment about impact of such a storm on Miami or another exposed U.S. city is extremely relevant for us in the U.S. We saw what Andrew did and this would be much much worse.



I'm not trying to compare apples to oranges but this storm will most likely set a precedent on its own..different situation than in the US that most of have experienced..The Phillipinos not only had to deal with a destructive typhoon along but also combat it with its poverty and poor shelter structure...reminds me of Haiti where they are in the same situation of not having adequate shelter..these are issues more pressing if we want to combat a climate change problem that I would like to see the UN tackle and spend their resources..Initiatives need to be look at in helping those under develop countries in building the infrastructure for their residents to ride out these storms..The poor are left out there to fend for themselves and that just cant be tolerated anymore..
I've always wanted to say this...Hei yan (how ya'll) doing..Please don't run me off with Tomatoes.


Japan has the system pronounced as "hai En"
Quoting 766. HadesGodWyvern:


Japan has the system pronounced as "hai En"
I pronounce it has "Hai yahn".

Quoting 762. HadesGodWyvern:
look at how close to the equator this "depression" is located! :O

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
21:00 PM JST November 9 2013
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 1.0N 142.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.


It's Typhoon Vamei-redux!
Quoting 695. islander101010:
seeing lots of signs of cat 4 damage but cat 5? i thought cat 5 effects were like a bulldozer not just some tin flying around
Shame on you for saying that!
Quoting 767. MoltenIce:
I pronounce it has "Hai yahn".
I pronounce it that way too.
I will not comment on the scenes of devastation and death - the pictures are horrendously eloquent enough. What struck me most of all , and always does, is the traumatised look in childrens'eyes - as very young children their world has limited horizons and familiar elements - in many regions - those have gone!

And as callous as it may sound on paper, it is the time for those who can - to think clinically with their heads and not their hearts - the Relief & Recovery efforts are going to be massive and, given reports regarding Airports and Roads, major quantities of Immediate Relief Supplies may take a while to reach the Philippines, let alone the stricken areas. I just hope that US Navy and Australian Navy etc may have assets relatively close with Rotary Wing capabilities for immediate provision of water and Medevac and, perhaps the ability to get closer to Ports and provide some Desal Water distribution and even limited Electrical Power to Shore - big aircraft loads with bulk supplies may take longer.

At some stage also - the question of Liveliehoods has to be addressed - farmers with devastated crops, shops that have disappeared etc - a long arduous path lies ahead.







Any model runs on 90W?
Quoting 764. georgevandenberghe:
Washingtonian's thought experiment about impact of such a storm on Miami or another exposed U.S. city is extremely relevant for us in the U.S. We saw what Andrew did and this would be much much worse.
Indeed. Using the NHC's hurricane damage potential calculator, a 190mph storm following Andrew's path would be expected to cause roughly five times the damage that Andrew did, or about $181 billion in 2013 dollars, while a 200 mph storm would likely cause damage in the range of $275 billion.
Any word on Storm Chaser and Photographer Jim Edds, who was in Talcoban ? Was he with James Reynolds the other Storm Chaser that was mentioned here?
Pulled this from CNN video where they were having to rescue people trapped

Quoting 774. originalLT:
Any word on Storm Chaser and Photographer Jim Edds, who was in Talcoban ? Was he with James Reynolds the other Storm Chaser that was mentioned here?

I read that TWC was in contact with him. I'd have to dig up the tweet in question, but it appears that he is alright.
Quoting 774. originalLT:
Any word on Storm Chaser and Photographer Jim Edds, who was in Talcoban ? Was he with James Reynolds the other Storm Chaser that was mentioned here?


I was wondering that also. Jim's last Tweet right before landfall was that he was going out to take some pictures and would be right back... nothing since then
With all of the reports out of Tacloban City, people should keep in mind that it was likely not hit with the worst of the storm. Perhaps some of the worst storm surge due to it's location near the San Juanico strait and San Pedro Bay, but likely not the worst of the winds.
The worst winds in higher-end tropical cyclones typically are found on the inner side of the eyewall. Based upon satellite data, it appears that Tacloban City was on the northern edge of the eyewall in the central dense overcast, but probably not in the actual eyewall itself. Areas that took a direct hit from the eyewall appear to be:
-Guiuan... I'd be most concerned about due it being located on low-level peninsulas sticking out into the Leyte Gulf/Pacific Ocean, having only one escape route, and it being struck first before the storm began to interact with more mountainous terrain
-Marabut/Lawaan/Balangiga/Giporlos areas... closer to the eyewall than Tacloban City but further outside of the eye than Guiuan
-Tolosa/Dulag area... hit by the northern, inner eyewall area
-Mayorga/La Paz area... hit by the eye directly
-MacArthur... hit by the eye partially, but also by the southern, inner eyewall area

Anyone hear word from these areas yet? I'd imagine we are hearing tons from Tacloban City due to the population.

UPDATE: After subsequently looking at radar data from Cebu city, the landfall locations seem slightly different depending on which data you choose. The radar data appears to be a bit north of the satellite data. This could be due to a projection issue in either of the datasets, but I'd expect the radar data from the Phillipines meteorological agency to likely be more accurate when compared to satellite plopped on Google Maps via WeatherUnderground.
I haven't seen anyone mention this yet, but if the surge rose to nearly ten feet in Reynolds' hotel, 25 feet above sea level, then it looks like we finally have an accurate estimate of the surge.

35 feet would put it among the highest surges recorded on earth (and for all we know, it could've been slightly higher elsewhere), and way above the estimates PAGASA and Dr. Masters were putting out a couple days ago (which seemed way too low at the time).
Thanks 1900H. Hope you are right. Post#776
We've heard nothing from Guiuan, which was probably the hardest hit.
Quoting 778. ScottLincoln:
With all of the reports out of Tacloban City, people should keep in mind that it was likely not hit with the worst of the storm. Perhaps some of the worst storm surge due to it's location near the San Juanico strait and San Pedro Bay, but likely not the worst of the winds.
The worst winds in higher-end tropical cyclones typically are found on the inner side of the eyewall. Based upon satellite data, it appears that Tacloban City was on the northern edge of the eyewall in the central dense overcast, but probably not in the actual eyewall itself. Areas that took a direct hit from the eyewall appear to be:
-Guiuan... I'd be most concerned about due it being located on low-level peninsulas sticking out into the Leyte Gulf/Pacific Ocean, having only one escape route, and it being struck first before the storm began to interact with more mountainous terrain
-Marabut/Lawaan/Balangiga/Giporlos areas... closer to the eyewall than Tacloban City but further outside of the eye than Guiuan
-Tolosa/Dulag area... hit by the northern, inner eyewall area
-Mayorga/La Paz area... hit by the eye directly
-MacArthur... hit by the eye partially, but also by the southern, inner eyewall area

Anyone hear word from these areas yet? I'd imagine we are hearing tons from Tacloban City due to the population.


No word whatsoever from Guiuan (I've been following that search term on Twitter). Did see one (*very unconfirmed*) estimate of 500 dead in Palo alone (the town a few miles south of Tacloban where the famous Macarthur memorial is).
Quoting 777. HarryMc:


I was wondering that also. Jim's last Tweet right before landfall was that he was going out to take some pictures and would be right back... nothing since then


I just read on twitter that Jim is alive and ok.
Quoting 780. originalLT:
Thanks 1900H. Hope you are right. Post#776


I just pulled up Cantore's TWC Twitter feed, about an hour ago he said they had word Edds is OK. Good news
Haiyan from the ISS

The Weather Channel's Jim Edds, in Tacloban, said there was a desperate need for drinking water for survivors. "We need it now, we needed it 12 hours ago,"he said in a brief phone call via satellite phone

Edds added that there was a massive wall of water when the storm hit, and described the current situation as chaotic. "Relief is needed here. Now."


First estimates are ~1200 people died.
Quoting 776. 1900hurricane:

I read that TWC was in contact with him. I'd have to dig up the tweet in question, but it appears that he is alright.


epic Super Typhoon Haiyan
this is from an Ireport off of CNN

The Guiuan area was the first to have yolanda. there is no communication from this area. they are isolated now because of downed power lines and this is what the NDRRMC is seeing as a priority. this is not going to help these devastated people NOW!!!! There is an airport in Guiuan and from all the reports i have seen there is no mention of this either from CNN or any other network. it is imperative that this airport becomes a focus for assistance to over 50,000 people in this area. whoever is in authority must get proactive now to prevent further loss of life. this is critical and must be reported on CNN so other related agencies can be informed. i have informed the red cross but i have not received a confirmation of the email. please be advised that this is critical for the prevention of more pain and suffering. i would also reflect that the media focus seems to be tacloban however you must be advised there is a national highway to guiuan from tacloban. there are numerous towns along that highway including the historic town of Balangiga. this road will be a road of death if there is no attention given to guiuan and the other areas out of the loop. thank you for your attention. geoff teague. retired NYC teacher
Quoting 786. Patrap:
Haiyan from the ISS before Impacting the Philippines


That's actually from November 9th, or after Haiyan already crossed the Philippines.
Quoting 771. SSideBrac:
I will not comment on the scenes of devastation and death - the pictures are horrendously eloquent enough. What struck me most of all , and always does, is the traumatised look in childrens'eyes - as very young children their world has limited horizons and familiar elements - in many regions - those have gone!

And as callous as it may sound on paper, it is the time for those who can - to think clinically with their heads and not their hearts - the Relief & Recovery efforts are going to be massive and, given reports regarding Airports and Roads, major quantities of Immediate Relief Supplies may take a while to reach the Philippines, let alone the stricken areas. I just hope that US Navy and Australian Navy etc may have assets relatively close with Rotary Wing capabilities for immediate provision of water and Medevac and, perhaps the ability to get closer to Ports and provide some Desal Water distribution and even limited Electrical Power to Shore - big aircraft loads with bulk supplies may take longer.

At some stage also - the question of Liveliehoods has to be addressed - farmers with devastated crops, shops that have disappeared etc - a long arduous path lies ahead.







Very nice statement!
Quoting 783. FlyingScotsman:


No word whatsoever from Guiuan (I've been following that search term on Twitter). Did see one (*very unconfirmed*) estimate of 500 dead in Palo alone (the town a few miles south of Tacloban where the famous Macarthur memorial is).

The interesting thing when trying to figure out the relative size of these cities/towns is how different they appear on satellite when compared to cities/towns in the US. They appear to be settlements with several hundred to maybe a few thousand people based upon the road networks and number of buldings, then you read online that their populations are 10-50x that amount.
Any model runs on 90W?






Thailand Meteorological Department (69 hrs) outlook model image
Quoting 787. Skyepony:
The Weather Channel's Jim Edds, in Tacloban, said there was a desperate need for drinking water for survivors. "We need it now, we needed it 12 hours ago,"he said in a brief phone call via satellite phone

Edds added that there was a massive wall of water when the storm hit, and described the current situation as chaotic. "Relief is needed here. Now."


First estimates are ~1200 people died.


Great news that he is fine.


Thailand Meteorological Department (135 hrs) outlook image

again looks bad for Vietnam region..
Quoting washingtonian115:
Mmmm not really.Their were overturned cars in Miami after Wilma hit and even in Fay.Now the debarking of trees in a tropical cyclone has caught my interest.
Mine too.
It happened in Grenada during Ivan.
Ivan also demolished a Fort, built of stone with walls 24'' thick, that had stood there since the early 1800's.

No confirmation, but it was said that embedded tornados were frequent.
I want to qualify these remarks by stating that my initial opinion/best educated guess is based on all the video and damage photos I've seen to date. In addition, I have personally experienced or intercepted more than 18 land falling hurricanes, as well.

Looking at that video recorded by James Reynolds, there's no way Tacloban City experienced category five winds. Those are very poorly constructed buildings that are still standing. In category five winds, we should be seeing the complete demolition of virtually all those buildings, as we saw in Homestead after Andrew. Keeping in mind, the buildings completely destroyed in Andrew were much more structurally superior to what's seen in this video.Moreover, most of the buildings that have been destroyed are more like shanties than anything else. It appears that the frictional effects of land, both from the N eye wall continually scraping Samar Island from the point of it's initial landfall and the directional flow of wind into the City, made a pretty significant difference in the highest winds they encountered. I say this from the perspective that many more lives might've been lost if the winds had achieved an even greater intensity there.That said, those are still some very impressive wind gusts recorded in James' footage!

To me, it's the catastrophic category five storm surge that I find most astonishing. The magnitude of which is clearly seen in the damage it caused there. All said, it's certainly excellent footage from a Meteorological perspective, but an extremely heart-wrenching one on an emotional level. My heart truly goes out for those who are suffering so severely in the aftermath of this phenomenal Typhoon!
Short Term Forecast

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
938 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2013

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-091700-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
938 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2013

.NOW...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
TODAY. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME EASTERLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS OF 15-20 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND AROUND 15 MPH
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ALL LOCATIONS MAY SEE GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20S.
THIS ONSHORE TRAJECTORY WILL PUSH MORE MARINE STRATOCUMULUS INTO THE
COAST...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT
MOST OF THE DAY. IT WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE OR EVEN A LIGHT SHOWER MAY
OCCUR RIGHT AT THE COAST FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARDS.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO ROUGH SURF AT AREA
BEACHES...MAKING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS FOR ENTERING THE WATER. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE ATLANTIC WATERS...DUE TO
THE HIGH SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...INCLUDING GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/BLOG.PHP

$$
Quoting 795. HadesGodWyvern:






Thailand Meteorological Department (69 hrs) outlook model image


Good grief, they have it going over Leyte. Let's hope it fizzles/stays weak.
Glad Jim Edds is ok.
Now I can say it. His final tweet, "Be back in a bit", would have been outstanding as last words.
Quoting 796. Tropicsweatherpr:


Great news that he is fine.

Quoting 787. Skyepony:
The Weather Channel's Jim Edds, in Tacloban, said there was a desperate need for drinking water for survivors. "We need it now, we needed it 12 hours ago,"he said in a brief phone call via satellite phone

Edds added that there was a massive wall of water when the storm hit, and described the current situation as chaotic. "Relief is needed here. Now."


First estimates are ~1200 people died.

Thanks for that info Skye.
I do now sincerely hope that some of the people who posted on here, that things would not be that bad and that storm surge and wind damage would be limited, have now seen some of the full effects of what was being talked and speculated about on the blog a couple of days ago.
As we said yesterday, when you get photos from cameras on the ground the true horror of these things come to our vision.
The cyclones might look amazing from above, which is where almost everybody posts pictures of from but underneath there lies an ugly misery beyond most peoples comprehension.
I cant think of a single blogger who has posted a avatar based on a picture of the other side of the hurricane from underneath. I'll be corrected shortly no doubt.
I was intrigued by a comment related to Dr Masters about the hurricane hunters and how when inside the eye of a 190 MPH storm the whole nature of the sea surface changed from anything they had previously seen.
Well, the people on the ground in the Philippine's 2 days ago got to see what happens to communities when they are overridden by the same extreme winds.
Good morning from Central OK,

Wow the pictures and reports from the Philippines are disheartening. Hoping that the government, and international aid groups, are capable of organizing relief efforts effectively.

Thoughts and prayers for those folks. Please consider helping in whatever way you possibly can. Small donations do add up.

Cheers.
Definitely some turning near the equator with some help from a Mixed Rossby Gravity Wave.







Quoting 614. sunlinepr:

is that lightning?
If you are a tweeter (I am not) here is one way you may be able to assist in the efforts.

Social media, crisis mapping and the new frontier in disaster response
I would caution against any statements saying "there's no way X area experienced Cat 5 winds" and "X area absolutely experienced Cat 5 winds" based on the limited information we have at the moment.

In previous storms, the wind speed/storm surge/damage from hurricanes has absolutely varied from mile to mile. I see no reason why this storm would be any different. According to Google Maps, Tacloban covers about 78 square miles. Some of it is poorly constructed, some well constructed. I would expect, just from this, that damage would vary greatly. Also, if you look at the maps, you can see that the strip of land where the airport is sticks out into Cancabato Bay, presumably providing some protection to areas behind it but also being in the first target areas of wind. Given this, the airport may very well have recorded higher wind speeds than the downtown area with one area having category 5 winds and another area having category 4 winds. And the video suggests that the airport buildings did receive some major damage, possibly from category 5 winds, possibly from category 4 winds. I do assume the airport's instruments were at least trying to calculate wind speeds and eventually we will get those measurements.

TLDR: we should expect that concrete buildings might have survived in some areas of the city but not in others. Three concrete buildings did survive in Homestead when other concrete buildings were destroyed in Hurricane Andrew, for instance. No reason to believe this storm is different.
the storm was approximately 1000 miles wide..to put it in perspective from Canada to Florida ..per CNN..I'm just quoting from them
I saw a Charley video posted yesterday and thought it was a good example of extreme winds in the daytime. Obviously there are many others. Charley had winds of "only" 145 mph at landfall in Punta Gorda and higher gusts. Wind damage in both Port Charlotte and Port Charlotte was considerable and to a fair degree, similar to Homestead after Andrew. Skip ahead to around 3:45-4:00 for most intense portion of the video. Remember these winds are "only" 145. After viewing, try to comprehend 175-190.

For those of you with experience in evaluating damage - this effort could use your help.

The site indicated in the guardian article previously posted.

MicroMappers
Tag Tweets to Support Typhoon Relief Efforts in Philippines!

Also, if people are familiar with the locations affected.

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has requested assistance in responding to Typhoon Yolanda in the Philippines, one of the worst storms in recorded history. The UN wants to find tweets that refer to infrastructure damage as well as needs and requests for help. So we're collaborating with our UN colleagues and the Standby Volunteer Task Force (SBTF) to make this happen but we need all the help we can get from the World Wide Crowd, meaning you! More info here.
It's sickening to think that this may just be the deadliest typhoon in Philippines history.
90W same general area?


Quoting 813. daddyjames:

For those of you with experience in evaluating damage - this effort could use your help.

The site indicated in the guardian article previously posted.

MicroMappers
Tag Tweets to Support Typhoon Relief Efforts in Philippines!

Also, if people are familiar with the locations affected.

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has requested assistance in responding to Typhoon Yolanda in the Philippines, one of the worst storms in recorded history. The UN wants to find tweets that refer to infrastructure damage as well as needs and requests for help. So we're collaborating with our UN colleagues and the Standby Volunteer Task Force (SBTF) to make this happen but we need all the help we can get from the World Wide Crowd, meaning you! More info here.


Actually you don't need to tweet. You can do it at home on your computer. It simply allows for quick classification of tweets related to the disaster as relevant or not, and whether they are indirectly or directly relevant for need and assistance. You can do it at home right now.

I am.
Quoting 799. ncforecaster:
I want to qualify these remarks by stating that my initial opinion/best educated guess is based on all the video and damage photos I've seen to date. In addition, I have personally experienced or intercepted more than 18 land falling hurricanes, as well.

Looking at that video recorded by James Reynolds, there's no way Tacloban City experienced category five winds. Those are very poorly constructed buildings that are still standing. In category five winds, we should be seeing the complete demolition of virtually all those buildings, as we saw in Homestead after Andrew. Keeping in mind, the buildings completely destroyed in Andrew were much more structurally superior to what's seen in this video.�Moreover, most of the buildings that have been destroyed are more like shanties than anything else. It appears that the frictional effects of land, both from the N eye wall continually scraping Samar Island from the point of it's initial landfall and the directional flow of wind into the City, made a pretty significant difference in the highest winds they encountered. I say this from the perspective that many more lives might've been lost if the winds had achieved an even greater intensity there.�That said, those are still some very impressive wind gusts recorded in James' footage!

To me, it's the catastrophic category five storm surge that I find most astonishing. The magnitude of which is clearly seen in the damage it caused there. All said, it's certainly excellent footage from a Meteorological perspective, but an extremely heart-wrenching one on an emotional level. My heart truly goes out for those who are suffering so severely in the aftermath of this phenomenal Typhoon!
I believe they did...And we will find out.
Super storm seems to be uses freely when it comes to recent storms. If this storm was truly in the 200 mph range then it is a super storm. As for Sandy – give me a break – folks just looking for fed handouts. I know that climate change is hot and perhaps some profit by preaching gloom and doom, but let’s keep things in perspective.
Quoting 798. pottery:
Mine too.
It happened in Grenada during Ivan.
Ivan also demolished a Fort, built of stone with walls 24'' thick, that had stood there since the early 1800's.

No confirmation, but it was said that embedded tornados were frequent.

If we start to look into the possibilities of Embedded Tornados, the we might be entering a whole new ball game here.
I am sure that along with the airports and possibly the military there, along the path of the storm, that some information will emerge as to what the wind speeds probably were on the ground.
I agree with Pottery's statement that embedded tornadoes could have been present as bark stripping needs a bit more than hurricane force winds in most cases.
Having said that of course there will be quite a few recorded case of bark striping in hurricane force winds.
I'm just speculating on a Saturday afternoon here!
Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpts:

VALID 12Z TUE NOV 12 2013 - 12Z SAT NOV 16 2013


COLD/ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING IN THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
TO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS... WITH NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BUT PROBABLY NOT TO THE GULF
COAST. MIN/MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT 10-20F BELOW NORMAL BUT AT
LEAST RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED.


Quoting 811. ncstorm:
the storm was approximately 1000 miles wide..to put it in perspective from Canada to Florida ..per CNN..I'm just quoting from them

At least in terms of CDO coverage, this is a good comparison.

spinning in the western carib.
A link that has a compilation of reports from inside the Philippines

LINK

Additional Real time news feed for the Philippines

LINK
Quoting 814. Articuno:
It's sickening to think that this may just be the deadliest typhoon in Philippines history.

I hope not. That distinction goes to Tropical Storm Thelma of 1991, a system that, despite only reaching winds of 50 mph, brought along torrential rains that killed at least 5,081. If Haiyan's death toll surpasses 1,800, it will become the second-deadliest in Philippine history.
Quoting 818. Neponset:
Super storm seems to be uses freely when it comes to recent storms. If this storm was truly in the 200 mph range then it is a super storm. As for Sandy – give me a break – folks just looking for fed handouts. I know that climate change is hot and perhaps some profit by preaching gloom and doom, but let’s keep things in perspective.

"super storm" isn't a scientific classification and has no objective basis. It is hyperbole used by news media. It doesn't belong in the name of either storm.
Quoting 818. Neponset:
Super storm seems to be uses freely when it comes to recent storms. If this storm was truly in the 200 mph range then it is a super storm. As for Sandy %u2013 give me a break %u2013 folks just looking for fed handouts. I know that climate change is hot and perhaps some profit by preaching gloom and doom, but let%u2019s keep things in perspective.


Why do trolls like this get to be here? Utter idiocy. Largest storm to ever affect the US and second most expensive. Millions affected and thousands are still in the beginning recovery stage. Outside of Katrina, Sandy is the most damaging storm to ever hit the continental. Looking for fed handouts?? Callous, ignorant of what good people went through, and sad on many levels.
Quoting 825. ScottLincoln:

"super storm" isn't a scientific classification and has no objective basis. It is hyperbole used by news media. It doesn't belong in the name of either storm.

I really hate the term.
Why do trolls like this get to be here? Utter idiocy. Largest storm to ever affect the US and second most expensive. Millions affected and thousands are still in the beginning recovery stage. Outside of Katrina, Sandy is the most damaging storm to ever hit the continental. Looking for fed handouts?? Callous, ignorant of what good people went through, and sad on many levels.


while i agree with your viewpoint ithink the word troll is unnecessary.....each one to their own opinion even when ignorant....

In the night the typhoon hit someone on this blog (sorry that I don't remember, who exactly) posted this closeup of Haiyan's eye showing the eyewall right over Tacloban as far as I can see.
Quoting 828. ricderr:
Why do trolls like this get to be here? Utter idiocy. Largest storm to ever affect the US and second most expensive. Millions affected and thousands are still in the beginning recovery stage. Outside of Katrina, Sandy is the most damaging storm to ever hit the continental. Looking for fed handouts?? Callous, ignorant of what good people went through, and sad on many levels.


while i agree with your viewpoint ithink the word troll is unnecessary.....each one to their own opinion even when ignorant....


I agree with ya. Good point.
Quoting 818. Neponset:
Super storm seems to be uses freely when it comes to recent storms. If this storm was truly in the 200 mph range then it is a super storm. As for Sandy – give me a break – folks just looking for fed handouts. I know that climate change is hot and perhaps some profit by preaching gloom and doom, but let’s keep things in perspective.


Before you make comments like that - why don't you investigate where the federal aid that was provided has gone. Where has a good bit of the federal aid actually gone - to assist those that were directly affected? Why don't you direct that anger at those "managing" the money and have not effectively dispersed it to those truly in need.
Quoting 825. ScottLincoln:

"super storm" isn't a scientific classification and has no objective basis. It is hyperbole used by news media. It doesn't belong in the name of either storm.

And FEMA. And the National Weather Service. And NOAA.
Quoting 824. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I hope not. That distinction goes to Tropical Storm Thelma of 1991, a system that, despite only reaching winds of 50 mph, brought along torrential rains that killed at least 5,081. If Haiyan's death toll surpasses 1,800, it will become the second-deadliest in Philippine history.

Thing is, we still haven't seen the extent of devastation in Guiyan and in other small villages, and this is only in the first week of counting.
Just saying but Dr. Masters has used the term Superstorm Sandy..wouldnt as another poster like to state attacking the author here?
Someone just made a remark that Tacloban might only have received Cat 4 winds. This could be true in the northern part near city hall. I mapped out the path of the eye based on several infrared images and here is what I came up with for the swath of highest winds:

(Click for full size)


Looks like Palo and Balangiga, both of which had a lot of infrastructure, could have received 150-180mph winds.
super storm" isn't a scientific classification and has no objective basis. It is hyperbole used by news media. It doesn't belong in the name of either storm.


i believe it's relevant as it causes one to stop and pay attention....here on the blog "cat 5" is used as the holy grail of hurricanes...and while it is impressive....true meaning to a populace...is the damage inflicted regardless of the scientific classification
Quoting 832. TropicalAnalystwx13:

And FEMA. And the National Weather Service. And NOAA.


It still isn't an objective way to classify a storm.
Quoting 832. TropicalAnalystwx13:

And FEMA. And the National Weather Service. And NOAA.

I think the usage in those places should be avoided as well. Again, it has no objective basis. It was basically a made up term because people didn't know what to call it a transiting hurricane->extratropical cyclone at landfall. Now it has confused the public.
Quoting 834. ncstorm:
Just saying but Dr. Masters has used the term Superstorm Sandy..wouldnt as another poster like to state attacking the author here?

Dr. Masters and I will not always agree... that certainly would be more common for word choice rather than actual scientific data/analysis. This is also true of scientists that frequently work together closely. That's ok. Welcome to the science world.
Quoting 836. ricderr:
super storm" isn't a scientific classification and has no objective basis. It is hyperbole used by news media. It doesn't belong in the name of either storm.


i believe it's relevant as it causes one to stop and pay attention....here on the blog "cat 5" is used as the holy grail of hurricanes...and while it is impressive....true meaning to a populace...is the damage inflicted regardless of the scientific classification

If people are not going to pay attention when we tell them about a storm being a category 5, then we've done all we can for them. Inventing a new term doesn't solve the core of the problem. It does no service to anyone, and in fact, does more of a disservice, if we use exaggerations and needless hyperbole to try and get people to act.

I'm hopefully that additional research from the social impact side of meteorology will help us quantify the effect of "crying wolf" so we can find the right balance of planning for the worst but hoping for the best.
Good afternoon...well guess I learn something everyday. Never strictly count on the MJO just because it is in a certain basin to produce a storm or we would have had a tropical cyclone somewhere in the Atlantic Basin by now, on the other hand a storm can develop without the presence of the MJO as was with the case of Haiyan. In ending I would just like to express my condolences to the families who lost friends and loved ones in this horrific storm. I know the pain and suffering it must be bringing as I have been through it with my father. If there was a way I could reach out physically I would do it, so in place of that I plan on sending a donation to help the victims...and do me a favor and hug the ones closest to you and tell them you love them everyday and if they are not around keep them in your thoughts. Have a nice day everyone.

If people are not going to pay attention when we tell them about a storm being a category 5, then we've done all we can for them. Inventing a new term doesn't solve the core of the problem. It does no service to anyone, and in fact, does more of a disservice, if we use exaggerations and needless hyperbole to try and get people to act.

I'm hopefully that additional research from the social impact side of meteorology will help us quantify the effect of "crying wolf" so we can find the right balance of planning for the worst but hoping for the best.




how is the word superstorm....as in relationship to its impact hyperbole?
Really? Thay are "super storms" I don't care what a ragged old book says.
Quoting 838. ScottLincoln:

I think the usage in those places should be avoided as well. Again, it has no objective basis. It was basically a made up term because people didn't know what to call it a transiting hurricane->extratropical cyclone at landfall. Now it has confused the public.
Dr. Masters and I will not always agree... that certainly would be more common for word choice rather than actual scientific data/analysis. This is also true of scientists that frequently work together closely. That's ok. Welcome to the science world.


calling it superstorm sandy was because it was based on scientific observations..a rare occurence of the artic ice melting and influencing the jet stream hence the name..I personally dont agree with the name either but Im glad to hear someone say that if we dont agree with dr. masters that we arent attacking him..

thanks
Quoting 799. ncforecaster:



Looking at that video recorded by James Reynolds, there's no way Tacloban City experienced category five winds. Those are very poorly constructed buildings that are still standing. In category five winds, we should be seeing the complete demolition of virtually all those buildings, as we saw in Homestead after Andrew. Keeping in mind, the buildings completely destroyed in Andrew were much more structurally superior to what's seen in this video


I'm not so sure.

While I know some CBS structures were destroyed by Andrew, 95% of the pictures available by a Google search show the mobile home park (destroyed) and other homes that were built at the lowest level of standards possible. Other than the mobile homes, the frame houses were built on a junk level. Gable roofs with barely the nails to hold them in a thunderstorm, two car unreinforced garage doors and large sliding glass openings, all garbage built by low-ball builders from the northeast states. For the CBS homes not structurally destroyed, the tile roofs were stripped because poor workmanship of a small dab of mortar or 1 nail.

I've seen plenty of "3rd world" buildings in the Caribbean and Central America that looked like the Tacloban structures, but appeared to be built far stronger when viewed up close.

The pics of well built single story CBS homes in the Andrew strike zone are tough to find, but show the ability to withstand damage far better than the 3 little pigs stick homes common in the post Andrew pics.

I think I saw a study showing the biggest Andrew weakness was Garage doors and large door openings letting the wind blow everything else out.


































































Quoting 842. PanhandleChuck:
Really? Thay are "super storms" I don't care what a ragged old book says.


I see you got a little Tazmanian in you Panhandlechuck... with that 'thay' spelling.
Quoting 829. barbamz:

In the night the typhoon hit someone on this blog (sorry that I don't remember, who exactly) posted this closeup of Haiyan's eye showing the eyewall right over Tacloban as far as I can see.

Thanks for posting that. I saw a different image (but seems to be the same data) that seemed to contradict the archived satellite data I looked at plopped on to google maps. There are a few things that could cause this discrepancy... some kind of vertical tilt to the features displayed in each product that would cause issues comparing remote sensed data from different altitudes, a projection issue with the satellite data, a projection issue with the radar data, or some combination. I used that additional information to post the "UPDATE" to my original post.

No doubt that Tacloban City was on the worst side of the eye. I still worry for municipalities that may have been in even worse conditions.
Sandy being a hybrid storm that happens once in a 700 year span was truly unique to what we've ever seen. Calling it a "Super Storm" is at least accurate in many ways. Certainly was a catchy tag that helped capture the populace's interest in Sandy. Irritation on this tag is limited to those who have a real passion for storms who know that this tag could be used for many storms, Katrina, Andrew, Wilma, etc., where historic storms have uniquely impacted the US. Katrina, the worst ever, Andrew, the only cat. 5 to ever hit the US, and Wilma the strongest and lowest MB storm on record for our neck of the woods could also accurately be labeled "Super Storms". Lets remember TA13 called this a "Super Storm" before any news outlet ever got the idea to. Clearly he's responsible.
I wonder if Haiyan peaked or would have strengthened further before striking the Philipines. And as if this horror is not enough, there is yet another system forming ESE of where Haiyan hit..
Quoting 843. ncstorm:


calling it superstorm sandy was because it was based on scientific observations..a rare occurence of the artic ice melting and influencing the jet stream hence the name..

According to what scientific body or person is that the basis of calling a tropical cyclone a "superstorm?"
Quoting 843. ncstorm:


...Im glad to hear someone say that if we dont agree with dr. masters that we arent attacking him..

thanks

Entirely depends on the context. My comment was by no means intended to be a blanket statement that anyone can disagree with Dr. Masters on anything for any reason with widely varying amounts of evidence and not be referred to as "attacking.
if NOAA, NWS and NHC are calling it Superstorm Sandy then why is this listed in wikipedia?

"Hurricane Sandy (unofficially known as "Superstorm Sandy") was the deadliest and most destructive hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane "
Quoting 849. ScottLincoln:

According to what scientific body or person is that the basis of calling a tropical cyclone a "superstorm?"

Entirely depends on the context. My comment was by no means intended to be a blanket statement that anyone can disagree with Dr. Masters on anything for any reason with widely varying amounts of evidence and not be referred to as "attacking.


as I said Scott..I dont agree with the name..just stating why it was named as such..

Audio: Phone interview with someone from Red Cross.
Quoting 841. ricderr:


how is the word superstorm....as in relationship to its impact hyperbole?

An exaggeration...using a term to evoke emotion...describing something in a way that has no objective basis that could (and has been) applied to other situations equally. It's a literary device. It's not a term given to the system because of any objective scientific basis.

That's hyperbole.
Before you all classify me as a troll, consider, I lived thru Hugo, a cat 5 storm and while it was the greatest experience I my life, it was hell without cold beer. LOL.
Charleston SC
Quoting 829. barbamz:

In the night the typhoon hit someone on this blog (sorry that I don't remember, who exactly) posted this closeup of Haiyan's eye showing the eyewall right over Tacloban as far as I can see.
Palau was on the south side of Haiyan and received what appeared to be cat-4 damage. They were further from the eye than Tacloban City. I would bet there was not one anemometer that survived, but a thorough survey of the destruction should determine whether or not cat-5 winds were present.
Quoting 854. Neponset:
Before you all classify me as a troll, consider, I lived thru Hugo, a cat 5 storm and while it was the greatest experience I my life, it was hell without cold beer. LOL.
Charleston SC
Where were you during Hugo.?
Quoting 844. Mach80:


Other than the mobile homes, the frame houses were built on a junk level. Gable roofs with barely the nails to hold them in a thunderstorm, two car unreinforced garage doors and large sliding glass openings, all garbage built by low-ball builders from the northeast states.


Are more likely to be destroyed when the wind comes at them from two different directions? (i.e. northeast winds before the eye passes then southeast winds afterwards)?
Quoting 833. Articuno:

Thing is, we still haven't extent of devastation in Guiyan and in other small villages, and this is only in the first week of counting.


Haiyan might just give the 1991 cyclone a run for the #1 spot, sadly...
Quoting 850. ncstorm:
if NOAA, NWS and NHC are calling it Superstorm Sandy then why is this listed in wikipedia?

"Hurricane Sandy (unofficially known as "Superstorm Sandy") was the deadliest and most destructive hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane "


It is Hurricane Sandy.
On anything official, I'm sure it will be just Hurricane Sandy.

Quoting 854. Neponset:
Before you all classify me as a troll, consider, I lived thru Hugo, a cat 5 storm and while it was the greatest experience I my life, it was hell without cold beer. LOL.
Charleston SC


Don't think you're a troll, just think the anger is misplaced. Money was appropriated to help those directly impacted by the storm. Look at the record, and see how well, and for what purpose, that money has been distributed. Then judge those that genuinely need assistance and are frustrated with the process.
Quoting 852. barbamz:

Audio: Phone interview with someone from Red Cross.
That is about the most heartwrenching thing I have ever seen. This disaster will have changed that part of the country for generations, if not indefinitely.
Here is an area very vulnerable to surge. About 15 miles east-southeast of Tacloan City:

Quoting 854. Neponset:
Before you all classify me as a troll, consider, I lived thru Hugo, a cat 5 storm and while it was the greatest experience I my life, it was hell without cold beer. LOL.
Charleston SC


Sure, troll was not appropriate for one stating an uniformed opinion. I have no problem taking that back. Please just research a little bit the widespread suffering that happened. So many have not even begun to recover and the fact that this was the largest and second most expensive storm to ever hit the US made Sandy a disaster of epic magnitude. I hope you'll greatly consider the comment "looking for a federal handout". That's callous and a heartless way to express your opinion. So many lost everything, many firefighters, cops, and other service providers. Did some exploit the system, you bet, and it's not right, but by far that isn't the case. I'm sure many of us would like to hear about your Hugo experience; beast of a storm.
Friday November 8, 2013
SUPER TYPHOON HAIYAN STRIKES THE PHILIPPINES
TRMM captured this first image of Haiyan just as it was crossing the island of Leyte in the central Philippines. The image was taken at 00:19 UTC (8:19 am local) 8 November 2013 and shows the horizontal distribution of rain intensity within the Haiyan. Rain rates in the center of the swath are from the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR), and those in the outer swath are from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI). The rain rates are overlaid on infrared (IR) data from the TRMM Visible Infrared Scanner (VIRS). TRMM shows that Haiyan still has a well-defined eye surrounded by a symmetric area of moderate rain (green annulus with a blue center) with several rain bands wrapping in from the south (green arcs). The symmetric rain area around the eye is a testament to the storm's intensity--the stronger the storm, the more the features are smeared uniformly around the center. At the time of this image, Haiyan's sustained winds were estimated to have dropped slightly to 160 knots (~185 mph) from crossing Leyte.

The second image was taken about 10 hours later at 10:08 UTC (6:08 pm local) when Haiyan was passing south of Mindoro as it was beginning to exit the Philippines. The center is now less organized after having passed over the larger Philippines island of Panay, although a large area of heavy rain (shown in red) is now located just south of the center. At the time of this image, Haiyan's intensity was estimated to be 145 knots (~167 mph), still equivalent to a Category 5 hurricane. ...






Unfortunately in respect to metereology TRMM didn't catch Haiyan in its full strength before landfall.

Quoting 853. ScottLincoln:

An exaggeration...using a term to evoke emotion...describing something in a way that has no objective basis that could (and has been) applied to other situations equally. It's a literary device. It's not a term given to the system because of any objective scientific basis.

That's hyperbole.

A lot of these "media" terms are like the terms used by second hand car dealers.
After they have use the terms for a while "Joe public," gets used to them and as such they become normal speech in the streets, hence the term "Mega" all over the place.
The reality is that the media are both the allies and the enemy's in this as they are needed by the populace to supply information but they are a problem as well in that they constantly try to add sensationalism to news in order to sell their products and up their ratings so as to attract more cash based advertising.
The average member of the public is very susceptible to sensationalism and this is the reason we have to suffer so much of it!
This thing is ridiculously close to the equator and still wrapping up..What a year.
Hydrus
In Sumter, SC after a very long drive (things were very slow on I 26) and things were not much better there.
Charleston SC
Quoting 865. PlazaRed:

A lot of these "media" terms are like the terms used by second hand car dealers.
After they have use the terms for a while "Joe public," gets used to them and as such they become normal speech in the streets, hence the term "Mega" all over the place.
The reality is that the media are both the allies and the enemy's in this as they are needed by the populace to supply information but they are a problem as well in that they constantly try to add sensationalism to news in order to sell their products and up their ratings so as to attract more cash based advertising.
The average member of the public is very susceptible to sensationalism and this is the reason we have to suffer so much of it!


its not just the media..there are government agencies along with the science weather community using the term..some of these outlets are only quoting those scientific people who called it that in the first place..
Quoting 850. ncstorm:
if NOAA, NWS and NHC are calling it Superstorm Sandy then why is this listed in wikipedia?

"Hurricane Sandy (unofficially known as "Superstorm Sandy") was the deadliest and most destructive hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane "

TA13 might be responsible.
Quoting 869. bappit:

TA13 might be responsible.

Lol. Not solely.

There was a huge discussion concerning whether or not "Superstorm Sandy" should be added to the lead a few weeks ago. A scientific vs. common name thing. In the end, it was decided that the term was widely-used enough to be included.
An exaggeration...using a term to evoke emotion...describing something in a way that has no objective basis that could (and has been) applied to other situations equally. It's a literary device. It's not a term given to the system because of any objective scientific basis3



scott...thanks for stating your reasoning....we'll just have to disagree
Quoting 854. Neponset:
Before you all classify me as a troll, consider, I lived thru Hugo, a cat 5 storm and while it was the greatest experience I my life, it was hell without cold beer. LOL.
Charleston SC

Sorry to break it to you but I believe that Hugo was not a cat 5 during landfall, sure it was a cat 5 at one point but not at landfall.
874. VR46L
From the CMISS BLOG

Official Philippine government update.

LINK to the pdf report.

Further official reports can be found HERE and HERE.

Path and timeline of landfalls

Anyone have a long visible sat gif of Haiyan?
Quoting hydrus:
This thing is ridiculously close to the equator and still wrapping up..What a year.

Weird weather all over the place.
Now, here comes the Northern Winter.
I hope we don't see any Nasty Stuff with that. But I am sure we will see Strange and Unique events.
18z Best Track remains at 100kts.

31W HAIYAN 131109 1800 15.4N 111.5E WPAC 100 948
Quoting 874. VR46L:
From the CMISS BLOG



What an unbelievable display of Mother Nature. Prayers to everyone in the Philippines. My wife's mom is from Cebu and everyone is ok from what we have heard. Unfortunately not so lucky for many others. :(
Quoting 854. Neponset:
Before you all classify me as a troll, consider, I lived thru Hugo, a cat 5 storm and while it was the greatest experience I my life, it was hell without cold beer. LOL.
Charleston SC
Hugo was a Cat 4 at its strongest and just inside that category. Hugo was not a Cat 5 storm. To clarify, it was a Cat 4 when it made landfall in Charleston.

Hugo had been a much stronger storm earlier in its lifespan when it was in the Caribbean. When it pushed well west of there it weakened somewhat and then re-strengthened as it passed over the Gulf Stream just prior to its primary landfall on the SC coast. The maximum sustained winds at that time were estimated to be 134 mph, making Hugo just barely a Cat 4 storm.

This is not to suggest that Hugo was not devastating to those in its path in South Carolina, it most certainly was. A Cat 4 storm is all one needs to suffer greatly, in fact a Cat 3 will do the job just fine. Now try to imagine winds of close to 200 mph. and a storm surge of between 15 and 50 feet, such as happened with Haiyan.
Quoting 874. VR46L:
From the CMISS BLOG


Watching that animation in slow motion you just posted. Thank you.
The part of the animation I find disturbing over and above the overhaul image is that the top or north edge of the eye wall is running directly along the coastline.
Now as this part of the world will have a massive amount of settlement's on the coast I would hazard a guess that they have suffered a lot worse than the bigger cities as their construction methods will probably be generally of poor quality.
Taking a brief temporary break from Haiyan news, I thought I'd put up this pretty cool animation of last Sunday's hybrid solar eclipse racing across the Atlantic. The animation is composed of a string of EUMETSAT images taken 15 minutes apart:

Click for larger image:



(Photo by EUMETSAT / Meteosat 10 / CIMSS Satellite Blog)
883. VR46L
Quoting 879. DavidHOUTX:


What an unbelievable display of Mother Nature. Prayers to everyone in the Philippines. My wife's mom is from Cebu and everyone is ok from what we have heard. Unfortunately not so lucky for many others. :(


Yes an horrible but beautiful storm .. horrifying reprts coming out now




Image taken by Karen Nyberg on the International Space Station
Quoting 880. FLWaterFront:
Hugo was a Cat 4 at its strongest and just inside that category. Hugo was not a Cat 5 storm.

You, sir, are incorrect. Unless I am reading this incorrectly...
Link
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting FLWaterFront:
Hugo was a Cat 4 at its strongest and just inside that category. Hugo was not a Cat 5 storm.

You sure about that ?
887. VR46L
Quoting 881. PlazaRed:

Watching that animation in slow motion you just posted. Thank you.
The part of the animation I find disturbing over and above the overhaul image is that the top or north edge of the eye wall is running directly along the coastline.
Now as this part of the world will have a massive amount of settlement's on the coast I would hazard a guess that they have suffered a lot worse than the bigger cities as their construction methods will probably be generally of poor quality.


Thank you I saw it on this blog CMISS SAT blog There are a few good Images of it
Quoting 877. pottery:

Weird weather all over the place.
Now, here comes the Northern Winter.
I hope we don't see any Nasty Stuff with that. But I am sure we will see Strange and Unique events.
There is a possibility with the current pattern shift of some severe weather outbreaks later on, its just to early to say. The arctic outbreak is going to be cold but brief. If the moisture flow returns, my bet is there will be problems down the road. We here on the plateau will have wind and flurries. A bit early for us, but not rare Killer Super Typhoon Haiyan..

Quoting 886. pottery:

You sure about that ?
From Hugo's official TCR:

hugo

The 140 knot reading sums it up...
Quoting 888. hydrus:
There is a possibility with the current pattern shift of some severe weather outbreaks later on, its just to early to say. The arctic outbreak is going to be cold but brief. If the moisture flow returns, my bet is there will be problems down the road. We here on the plateau will have wind and flurries. A bit early for us, but not rare.

This is going to be a bit of a localised thing for a lot of us.
I speculated about 2 months ago on here that I did not think we in Southern Spain would have much to shout, moan or complain about this year.
Last winter it rained almost every day for months.
Now. Today Nov 9th. 8pm, the temp is 18/C mid 60s to the USA.
We have had almost no rain at all this winter here, maybe an inch, that's all.
(Winter which we consider starts in September from the rainy point of view.)
Although it normally doesn't get cold until Christmas.
Huge Atlantic highs have been coming over and stay all week, bringing calm warm weather, then we get a day of chilly winds then another big high.
I only remember on year, maybe it was 1995 when it didn't rain much until mid November.
Quoting 871. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Lol. Not solely.

There was a huge discussion concerning whether or not "Superstorm Sandy" should be added to the lead a few weeks ago. A scientific vs. common name thing. In the end, it was decided that the term was widely-used enough to be included.

Yeah, I noticed that Wiki includes redirects for some common misspellings like "limerance". I think "super storm" falls in that category.
Quoting 750. washingtonian115:
Imagine if a storm like Heiyan were to slam into Miami..Don't worry take your time..


It would cut down the horrendous crime rate in Miami for the next two years; as happened after Andrew.
Quoting 874. VR46L:
From the CMISS BLOG

Wow! sorry i took a hiatus lol! thats Yolanda?
.
GOCE altitude at most recent perigee 94.63 miles or 499,647 feet. At that altitude assuming atmospheric pressure halves every 18,000 feet and at a speed of 17,748 mph the wind has the same force as a breeze of 1.387 mph at sea level. Probably not enough to perceive if you were in a space suit.