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Super Typhoon Haiyan Closes in on the Philippines With 190 mph Sustained Winds

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:41 PM GMT on November 07, 2013

Super Typhoon Haiyan is one of the most intense tropical cyclones in world history, with sustained winds an incredible 190 mph, gusting to 230 mph, said the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in their 15 UTC (10 am EST) November 7, 2013 advisory. Officially, the strongest tropical cyclone in world history was Super Typhoon Nancy of 1961, with sustained winds of 215 mph. However, it is now recognized (Black 1992) that the maximum sustained winds estimated for typhoons during the 1940s to 1960s were too strong. Since 1969, only three tropical cyclones have equaled Haiyan's 190 mph sustained winds--the Western Pacific's Super Typhoon Tip of 1979, the Atlantic's Hurricane Camille of 1969, and the Atlantic's Hurricane Allen of 1980. All three of these storms had a hurricane hunter aircraft inside of them to measure their top winds, but Haiyan's winds were estimated using only satellite images, making its intensity estimate of lower confidence. Some interpretations of satellite intensity estimates suggest that there may have been two super typhoons stronger than Tip--Super Typhoon Gay of 1992, and Super Typhoon Angela of 1995. We don't have any measurements of Haiyan's central pressure, but it may be close to the all-time record of 870 mb set by Super Typhoon Tip. The Japan Meteorological Agency estimated Haiyan's central pressure at 895 mb at 12 UTC (7 am EST) November 7, 2013. Haiyan has the most spectacular appearance I've ever seen on satellite loops, with a prominent eye surrounded by a huge, impenetrable-looking mass of intense eyewall thunderstorms with tops that reach into the lower stratosphere. With landfall expected to occur by 21 UTC (4 pm EST) on Thursday, Haiyan doesn't have time to weaken much before landfall, and will likely hit the Philippines at Category 5 strength.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Super Typhoon Haiyan taken at 4:25 UTC November 7, 2013. At the time, Haiyan was a Category 5 storm with top winds of 175 mph. The Philippines are visible at the left of the image, and the Caroline Islands at the lower right. Image credit: NASA.

Haiyan will be the third Category 5 typhoon to make landfall in the Philippines since 2010. In 2010, Super Typhoon Megi peaked at 180 mph winds just east of Luzon Island in the Philippines, and made landfall in the Philippines as a Category 5 storm. Megi's landfall was proof that the Philippines can withstand a strike by a Category 5 storm without a catastrophe resulting, as Megi killed only 35 people, and did $276 million in damage. However, the last Category 5 storm to hit the Philippines--Super Typhoon Bopha, which hit the southern Philippine island of Mindanao on December 3, 2012--did cause a catastrophe. The typhoon left 1901 people dead, mostly on the island of Mindanao, making Bopha the 2nd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. With damages estimated at $1.7 billion, Bopha was the costliest natural disaster in Philippines history at the time.


Figure 2. Super Typhoon Megi as seen by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra satellite at 10:35 a.m. Philippine Time (02:35 UTC) on October 18, 2010. Megi was bearing down on Luzon Island in the Philippines as a Category 5 storm with 170 mph winds. Megi killed 35 and did $276 million in damage, making it the 6th most expensive typhoon in Philippines history. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Haiyan's deadliest danger: heavy rains, high winds
The deadliest threat from Philippine typhoons is usually heavy rains, since the islands are very mountainous, leading to very high rainfall amounts capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides. Deforestation of the mountainous slopes has contributed to this problem in recent decades. The latest rainfall forecast from the 06Z November 7, 2013 run of the HWRF model is not encouraging. A 50-mile wide swath of 8+ inches of rain is predicted to cross the Central Philippines. The soils are already very wet from the heavy rains that Tropical Depression 30 dumped over the region on Monday, so the rains from Haiyan will runoff quickly and create life-threatening flooding. Haiyan's winds are also a huge concern, particularly in Tacloban, population 221,000, the capital of the province of Leyte. Tacloban will likely receive a direct hit, and I expect the sustained winds from Haiyan will be at Category 4 strength in the city.


Figure 3. Predicted rainfall from the 06Z November 7, 2013 run of the HWRF model, for the 108-hour period ending at 18Z November 11, 2013. A 50-mile wide swath of 8+ inches of rain (medium dark red colors) is predicted to cross the Central Philippines and Northern Vietnam. This is likely an underestimate of the rains, since Haiyan is now stronger than what the HWRF model was predicting at 06Z. Image credit: NOAA/NCEP/EMC.

Haiyan a serious storm surge threat
Haiyan will cause much higher storm surge damage than is typical for a Philippines typhoon. A worst-case scenario now appears unlikely, as the current forecast track will keep the storm surge from building into the funnel-shaped Leyte Gulf, which comes to a point in Tacloban, population 221,000, the capital of the province of Leyte. Much of Tacloban is at elevations less than ten feet, and storm surge forecasts made earlier today by the Philippines' Project NOAH were calling for a storm tide (the combined height of the surge plus the tide) of 15' (4.5 meters) in Tacloban. With Haiyan now expected to push the waters out of Leyte Gulf upon approach, the storm tide will likely not get that high in Tacloban. The greatest storm tide will occur to the east of Tacloban on the east shore of Samar Island, where a massive 17' (5.3 meter) storm tide was predicted by Project NOAH. Many locations in the Central Philippines are expected to see storm tides in excess of 8' (2.5 meters), after Haiyan crosses Leyte and Samar Islands. To give you some idea of the size and power of Haiyan, a storm tide of 4.5' (1.4 meters) is predicted in the capital of Manila, even though the typhoon is expected to pass 180 miles to the south of the city. An experimental storm surge forecast from the European Commission's Joint Research Centre HyFlux2 model calls for a peak storm surge of 7.5 feet (2.3 meters) from Haiyan. This model has not been verified for the Philippines, and I expect the storm surges from a 190 mph Category 5 typhoon will be more in line with what Project NOAH is predicting. Here are the storm tide forecasts, which are updated every six hours on the the Philippines' Project NOAH website:




Figure 4. Elevation map of Leyte Island (left) and Samar Island (top) in the Philippines. Much of the capital of Leyte, Tacloban, is at an elevation less than 4 meters (13'), red to dark red colors. The predicted path of Haiyan’s eye in the 15 UTC November 7, 2013 Joint Typhoon Warning Center advisory is shown. Image credit: Globalwarmingart.com.

Haiyan the fifth named storm to hit the Philippines in 2013
Haiyan will be the fourth typhoon and fifth named storm to hit the Philippines this year. The others were:

Tropical Storm Rumbia, which hit the island of Samar on June 29 as a tropical storm, killing six.
Typhoon Nari, which hit Luzon on October 11 as a Category 3 typhoon with 115 mph winds, killing five.
Typhoon Utor, which hit Luzon on August 12 as a Category 4 typhoon with 140 mph winds, killing fourteen and causing $25 million in damage.
Typhoon Krosa, which hit northern Luzon on October 31 as a Category 2 typhoon with 105 mph winds, killing five and doing $5 million in damage.

Links
Storm Chaser James Reynolds on Twitter, from Tacloban, Leyte.
Storm Chaser Jim Edds on Twitter, from Tacloban, Leyte.
Webcam in Malay, Philippines
Webcam in Boracay, Philippines

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

James Reynolds ‏@typhoonfury 36s
Power just failed in Tacloban, hotel generator just kicked in. Bring on sunrise! #typhoon #YolandaPH #Haiyan
The sun is coming.

From WGN Chicago's Tom Skilling,

There's just been a satellite estimate that Super Typhoon Haiyan's central pressure has reached 858 mb (25.34"). If true, that would make it the most intense tropical cyclone ever recorded. Stay tuned on that! Meantime--check out another satellite perspective on the storm from CIMSS at the Univ of Wisconsin in Madison. Typhoon Bopha, which struck the southern Phillipine island of Mindanao in December 2012 resulted in 1,900 deaths--so Haiyan represents a devastating threat to the region.
Quoting barbamz:


Eyewall Replacement Cycle was finished shortly after clearing Palau (and it has been a very smooth one).

True, but there was none today.
Storm has kept it's symmetry and shows no sign of losing that.
Incredible.
Jim Edds ‏@ExtremeStorms 4m
Huge gust of wind, loud bang . . Something went flying

Jim Edds ‏@ExtremeStorms 2m
Power out, time to get the hell out of the restaurant back to the room and get the gear !! It's on !!!!

Jim Edds ‏@ExtremeStorms 1m
They are trying told hold the door shut pic.twitter.com/XLLi298m8G



Source
Quoting 504. pottery:

True, but there was none today.
Storm has kept it's symmetry and shows no sign of losing that.
Incredible.


This is what I was trying to say, lol.
Quoting 502. 1900hurricane:
The sun is coming.



Should be spectacular to see once daylight reaches.
James Reynolds ‏@typhoonfury 36s
Power just failed in Tacloban, hotel generator just kicked in. Bring on sunrise! #typhoon #YolandaPH #Haiyan



oh yes...when the power goes out at night....things and thoughts change dramatically
Typhoon Haiyan is beginning to affect the Philippines in earnest, with no signs of weakening. Maximum sustained winds are at least 195 mph...probably stronger. The minimum barometric pressure? We'll find out soon as we've got some chasers near the landfall location...I'd venture to say sub-870 millibars. Haiyan is probably the strongest tropical cyclone ever observed on this planet; I can only hope residents are as prepared as possible. The devastation along coastal regions in the path of this storm will be complete; if the 15-25ft storm surge does not do such, the 195 mph+ winds will. It will be utter hell (no, that's not a bad word) for those riding the storm out.

Quoting 500. Andrebrooks:
Hurricane question:What is it when a hurricane gets strong but has some issues, what is that called.


Emotionally unstable?

Detrimental factors?

Mitigating factors?
Hello all, first post from me, but I do follow comments here very often when there's active weather going on. A couple of comments that occur to me about Haiyan: 1) Up until just about this point in time, the storm has been over extremely deep water, 25,000' to even 30,000' in depth right up to the transition point into the Leyte Gulf, where it quickly goes to the 100'-300' depth range, and even more shallow near Tacloban. I'm very curious if we'll see any sudden shift in track path, intensity, or eye size and shape during the next hour or two when that sudden decrease in water depth happens. 2) I'm afraid there's still a *lot* of danger to the Tacloban area from storm surge despite the path looking to have circulation winds coming more from the N and NE so there may not be a "funnel buildup" effect in the city's bay like there would be if the eye path were, as a guess, 10 or 20 miles south of where it appears to be going right now. My thinking runs along the lines of, look at that eye and image a dome or cylinder of water inside it, likely 10 or 15 feet elevated over sea level. If that eye moves mostly west without running halfway over the coast east of Tacloban, it seems to me there could literally be a mound of water some 10' high and, what, 5 miles wide?, run up onshore right in the middle of the city before the eye's low pressure can't keep carrying it and lets it all flow out from there.
An outer eyewall may have started to develop, but it has started coming on too late to affect intensity prior to landfall.

I'd advise staying off the 1st floor.


A Interior Room up a few stories would not be a bad choice now.
Quoting 489. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

seems as if it has warmed just a teen
Guiuan, Philippines
5:09 AM PHT

Sunrise iz 5:30 Local
858mb is mind-boggling if true.
Quoting 511. ArizDryHeat:
Hello all, first post from me, but I do follow comments here very often when there's active weather going on. A couple of comments that occur to me about Haiyan: 1) Up until just about this point in time, the storm has been over extremely deep water, 25,000' to even 30,000' in depth right up to the transition point into the Leyte Gulf, where it quickly goes to the 100'-300' depth range, and even more shallow near Tacloban. I'm very curious if we'll see any sudden shift in track path, intensity, or eye size and shape during the next hour or two when that sudden decrease in water depth happens. 2) I'm afraid there's still a *lot* of danger to the Tacloban area from storm surge despite the path looking to have circulation winds coming more from the N and NE so there may not be a "funnel buildup" effect in the city's bay like there would be if the eye path were, as a guess, 10 or 20 miles south of where it appears to be going right now. My thinking runs along the lines of, look at that eye and image a dome or cylinder of water inside it, likely 10 or 15 feet elevated over sea level. If that eye moves mostly west without running halfway over the coast east of Tacloban, it seems to me there could literally be a mound of water some 10' high and, what, 5 miles wide?, run up onshore right in the middle of the city before the eye's low pressure can't keep carrying it and lets it all flow out from there.


Welcome to the blog, first poster!
This is nothing like Megi IMO. Haiyan is hitting much further south, in a much more vunerable area. I would love to be wrong, but I would be very surprised if the the death toll was as low as it was with Megi.
Guiuan has not updated yet. Giving them another 10 minutes.
Quoting 513. Patrap:
I'd advise staying off the 1st floor.


A Interior Room up a few stories would not be a bad choice now.


Any floor is not a good idea if you are in the path of this beast unless you are in a steel bunker.
A warming World, with a rising Sea height from that warming due to expansion, and with more WV available, and with the trend no where ending...


One has to pause.

400ppm CO2 and rising.





Quoting 518. SomersetSquall:
This is nothing like Megi IMO. Haiyan is hitting much further south, in a much more vunerable area. I would love to be wrong, but I would be very surprised if the the death toll was as low as it was with Megi.


Many cities and towns are going to be leveled down to the foundations. Nothing will be left in the path of this Typhoon.
Quoting 520. StormTrackerScott:

Any floor is not a good idea if you are in the path of this beast unless you are in a steel bunker.


Take a sec and realize Pat was giving some sound advice Scott..
This is no time for pettiness..
TIA.. :)
Jim Edds ‏@ExtremeStorms 1m
Made it out of the restaurant back to the room. Advised everyone to shut down & get out of there fast. I know what can happen trust me.
Quoting 509. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Typhoon Haiyan is beginning to affect the Philippines in earnest, with no signs of weakening. Maximum sustained winds are at least 195 mph...probably stronger. The minimum barometric pressure? We'll find out soon as we've got some chasers near the landfall location...I'd venture to say sub-870 millibars. Haiyan is probably the strongest tropical cyclone ever observed on this planet; I can only hope residents are as prepared as possible. The devastation along coastal regions in the path of this storm will be complete; if the 15-25ft storm surge does not do such, the 195 mph+ winds will. It will be utter hell (no, that's not a bad word) for those riding the storm out.



Wow, isn't that the power of a small twister...magnified & sustained by many times?!?
Take a sec and realize Pat was giving some sound advice Scott..
This is no time for pettiness..



thank you...much better than i was going to say it
This is scary

and beautiful

all at the same time.
Brian McNoldy has radar loops of Haiyan. Cebu one is getting good.

"These loops were all created by me, and anyone may feel free to link to or use them,
but I'd appreciate if credit is given (Brian McNoldy, RSMAS/Univ of Miami)."
Quoting 525. WalkingInTheSun:


Wow, isn't that the power of a small twister...magnified & sustained by many times?!?


An EF5 has winds of 200mph+. Mind you, those aren't the typical straight line winds associated with a hurricane, but 200mph is 200mph when you're at that point. What we're looking at is tantamount to a gigantic EF4 tornado.
Quoting 525. WalkingInTheSun:


Wow, isn't that the power of a small twister...magnified & sustained by many times?!?

A 195 mph hurricane would fit in as a strong EF-4 (almost EF-5) on the Enhanced Fujita scale. Like a Tuscaloosa. Problem is, the ~190 mph winds in Tuscaloosa lasted for but a minute or two; in Haiyan, they will last about half an hour. Everything that experiences these winds will be leveled.
The eye begins to appear on Doppler Radar

Guiuan weather station appears to be inoperative.
Quoting 521. Patrap:
A warming World, with a rising Sea height from that warming due to expansion, and with more WV available, and with the trend no where ending...


One has to pause.

400ppm CO2 and rising.







Quoting 523. pcola57:


Take a sec and realize Pat was giving some sound advice Scott..
This is no time for pettiness..
TIA.. :)


Wasn't being petty I was just stating this is so powerful that there is no safe place.
Quoting 518. SomersetSquall:
This is nothing like Megi IMO. Haiyan is hitting much further south, in a much more vunerable area. I would love to be wrong, but I would be very surprised if the the death toll was as low as it was with Megi.
You are right. We are not used to Typhoons on Leyte, Eastern Samar have had experience in the past, but here we only get the edge.

-Brad Panovich
There really are no words for this...

SevereStudios ‏@severestudios 29 s
RT @EricHolthaus: Typhoon #YolandaPH has made landfall in Guiuan, Eastern Samar, Philippines at 4:40am local time, multiple sources confirm.

Quoting 523. pcola57:


Take a sec and realize Pat was giving some sound advice Scott..
This is no time for pettiness..
TIA.. :)


I surely don't need advice from you on how to write a post;) TIA.



63James Reynolds %u200F@typhoonfury 1m
First light, so so welcome!! #typhoon #YolandaPH #Haiyan pic.twitter.com/O3vvqmn3L2
Quoting 536. Caimito:
You are right. We are not used to Typhoons on Leyte, Eastern Samar have had experience in the past, but here we only get the edge.


Caimito! Still up? How are conditions at your place now?
Quoting 531. GBguy88:


An EF5 has winds of 200mph+. Mind you, those aren't the typical straight line winds associated with a hurricane, but 200mph is 200mph when you're at that point. What we're looking at is tantamount to a gigantic EF4 tornado.


From what I've seen on latest data, it looks like EF3+ for a diameter of over 100 miles. That would be one heck of a tornado
Link

From the Manila Bulletin earlier today:

Signal No. 4 (with winds of more than 185 kph is expected in at least 12 hrs) was raised over Eastern Samar, Samar, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Biliran Province, extreme Northern Cebu including Bantayan Island, Capiz, Aklan, and Northern Antique.

The super typhoon is also expected to make landfall earlier than expected. From an initial forecast of between 8 and 10 a.m. Friday, it is now expected to hit Guiuan, Eastern Samar or Abuyog, Leyte at around 5-6 a.m. Friday.

After it reaches the landmass of Eastern Samar of Leyte Friday morning, Yolanda is expected to traverse Biliran, northern tip of Cebu, Iloilo, Capiz, Aklan, Romblon, Semirara Island, southern part of Mindoro then Busuanga, Palawan and will exit landmass early Saturday toward the West Philippine Sea.

Has there been any news from Palau after yesterdays very close encounter with the Cyclone to the north of the island?
I have so far heard nothing on the news in Europe.
Interestingly there has also be no mention of the cyclone and its dangers on the European news I have seen on the TV and Internet!
Quoting 544. HarryMc:


From what I've seen on latest data, it looks like EF3+ for a diameter of over 100 miles. That would be one heck of a tornado


Nothing left including all animals will likely suffer due to this typhoon.
548. VR46L
Webcam

Saw this posted earlier by another user, figured I would repost as it is beginning to get light out now. Thoughts are with everyone in the effected area, I fear that this will be a very tragic event.
Latest from SSD Analyst, 8.0 across the board:
MET, PT, DT, FT and CI

20131107 | 2030 | W-PAC | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 10.8 | -125.9 | 858 | 170




Link

Quoting 546. PlazaRed:
Has there been any news from Palau after yesterdays very close encounter with the Cyclone to the north of the island?
I have so far heard nothing on the news in Europe.
Interestingly there has also be no mention of the cyclone and its dangers on the European news I have seen on the TV and Internet!


Link
Quoting VR46L:

Nice image.
Especially with that Demon Cat crouching on top the spinning wheel......
Quoting 513. Patrap:
I'd advise staying off the 1st floor.


A Interior Room up a few stories would not be a bad choice now.
Pat... Been through many, seen Andrew damage... My opinion. No safe place in this storm.
Guiuan is in the eye. I hope people were able to get out of the way. Pity there is no observation.
Quoting 553. PalmBeachWeather:
Pat... Been through many, seen Andrew damage... My opinion. No safe place in this storm.


My point exactly and someone took it as being petty. Been through many hurricanes and there really is no safe place to be.
I made a GIF of raw MTSAT data from Unidata. Eyewall structure is less than perfect now as low-level inflow gets disrupted.

Quoting DonnieBwkGA:
Guiuan is in the eye. I hope people were able to get out of the way. Pity there is no observation.


My friend is in there, well, that is where she lives, I hope she isn't in there right now though
Quoting Patrap:

Post 555.
170 knots is plenty wind......
Quoting 547. StormTrackerScott:


Nothing left including all animals will likely suffer due to this typhoon.
Speaking of Dogs. I have my two here inside the house. Took them ages to settle. Wind is only about 20km/hr, but the don't like it. There are lots of short gust bursts of maybe 35, but I think my WS only measure sustained for 10 secs.
Typhoon Yolanda bulletin.

Typhoon Yolanda has made landfall over Guiuan.
Unbelievable bomb on the EURO. Not happening. Would be historic here in North Carolina.

Quoting 553. PalmBeachWeather:
Pat... Been through many, seen Andrew damage... My opinion. No safe place in this storm.


Quoting 556. StormTrackerScott:


My point exactly and someone took it as being petty. Been through many hurricanes and there really is no safe place to be.


Hey, all friends here but no need to add more stress to those already in harms way. There are many people in the the path of this storm coming here for info. The best thing we all can do is to advise all to stay calm and find the safest place from wind, surge, flash flooding and mudslides and hunker down there.
Here are a few sections of the Navy discussion from a few hours ago:

WDPN33 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN) WARNING NR
19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)REVEALS A NEARLY ANNULAR EYEWALL HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 170 KNOTS BASED ON THE 8.0/8.0 DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EYEWALL HAS STARTED TO TRACK OVER THE EASTERN ISLANDS OF THE PHILIPPINES WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS PROVIDING VERY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW TO THE SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL INFLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS VERY LOW (LESS THAN 5 KNOTS), ALLOWING GOOD VERTICAL TRANSPORT AND IS SUPPORTING THE RECENT INTENSITY INCREASES OBSERVED IN EIR. STY 31W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.


Low wind sheer and 85 degree ssts............... :(
Jim Edds %u200F@ExtremeStorms 7m
987.3mb at 5:29 am handheld barometer was calibrated before the trip so should be close

Tacloban


Weatherstation
This is where the twittering stormchasers (see blog entry) are staying.
Multiplatform Tropical Cyclone MSLP and Maximum Winds

Quoting 563. ChillinInTheKeys:




Hey, all friends here but no need to add more stress to those already in harms way. There are many people in the the path of this storm coming here for info. The best thing we all can do is to advise all to stay calm and find the safest place from wind, surge, flash flooding and mudslides and hunker down there.
Chillin... Good point, but I think it's too late now
Witnessing this storm has been both fascinating and horrifying. Haiyan really exemplifies the term "perfect storm". 195 mph sustained winds would make it the strongest of the modern era in terms of winds wouldn't it? As Dr. Masters said estimates form the 1960's were inaccurate.

This would also be only the 2nd storm I know of that has 8.0/8.0 ADT ratings, joining Cyclone Monica from Australia's 2006 season.
Levi32 what's your best guess for the typhoon's lowest pressure?
Quoting 563. ChillinInTheKeys:




Hey, all friends here but no need to add more stress to those already in harms way. There are many people in the the path of this storm coming here for info. The best thing we all can do is to advise all to stay calm and find the safest place from wind, surge, flash flooding and mudslides and hunker down there.


I agree but this is like a EF-5 rolling thru.
Quoting 567. PalmBeachWeather:
Chillin... Good point, but I think it's too late now



True. I'm was just sayin' no one wants to here "There's no safe place to be" when you're staring this beast down!

Find the safest place you can and stay there if possible!!!


Jim Edds ‏@ExtremeStorms 5m
This is going to be awfully close http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/31W/image ry/rbtop_lalo-animated.gif … pic.twitter.com/alcip1mhEe
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #6
TYPHOON YOLANDA
5:00 AM PhST November 8 2013
===================================

Typhoon "YOLANDA" has made landfall over Guiuan, Eastern Samar

At 4:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Yolanda [HAIYAN] (914 hPa) located at 10.8N 126.2E or 62 km southeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar has 10 minute sustained winds of 125 knots with gustiness up to 150 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 21 knots.

Signal Warnings
==================

Signal Warning #4

Luzon region
--------------
1. Masbate
2. Ticao Island
3. Southern Sorsogon
4. Romblon

Visayas region
----------------
1. Northern Samar
2. Eastern Samar
3. Samar
4. Leyte
5. Southern Leyte
6. Biliran
7. Northern Cebu
8. Cebu City
9. Bantayan
10. Camotes Islands
11. Northern Negros Occidental
12. Capiz
13. Aklan
14. Antique
15. Iloilo
16. Guimaras

Mindanao region
----------------
1. Dinagat Province

Signal Warning #3

Luzon region
-------------
1. Rest of Sorsogon
2. Burias Island
3. Albay
4. Marinduque
5. Occidental Mindoro
6. Oriental Mindoro
7. Calamian Group of Islands

Visayas region
--------------
1. Rest of Negros Occidental
2. Negros Oriental
3. Rest of Cebu
4. Bohol

Mindanao region
-------------------
1. Surigao del Norte
2. Siargao Island

Signal Warning #2

Luzon region
--------------
1. Catanduanes
2. Camarines Sur
3. Southern Quezon
4. Laguna
5. Batangas
6. Rizal
7. Metro Manila
8. Cavite
9. Bataan
10. Lubang Islands
11. Northern Palawan
12. Puerto Princesa

Visayas region
--------------
1. Siquijor

Mindanao region
----------------
1. Camiguin
2. Surigao Del Sur
3. Agusan Del Norte

Signal Warning #1

Luzon region
------------
1. Camarines Norte
2. Rest of Quezon
3. Polilio Island
4. Bulacan
5. Pampanga
6. Zambales

Mindanao region
---------------
1. Misamis Oriental
2. Agusan del Sur

Additional Information
=========================
"YOLANDA", after hitting Guiuan ( Eastern Samar), is expected to traverse the provinces of Biliran, the Northern tip of Cebu, Iloilo, Capiz, Aklan, Romblon, Semirara Island, the southern part of Mindoro then Busuanga and will exit the Philippine landmass (on Saturday early morning) towards the west Philippine Sea.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10.0-30.0 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 400 km diameter of the typhoon.

Sea travel is risky over the seaboards of northern Luzon and over the eastern seaboard of central Luzon.

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under signal #4, #3 and #2 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under signal #4, #3 and #2 are alerted against storm surges which may reach up to 7 meters wave height.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
Quoting 557. Levi32:
I made a GIF of raw MTSAT data from Unidata. Eyewall structure is less than perfect now as low-level inflow gets disrupted.




hey levi!
Tacloban City is next up. Pressure readings are screwed.
Perfection

Wouldn't be shocked if winds were near 180 knots.


Quoting 562. Walshy:
Unbelievable. Not happening.



I hope it does, though :) Temperatures will be freezing, though...
579. VR46L

Quoting 552. pottery:

Nice image.
Especially with that Demon Cat crouching on top the spinning wheel......


Yeah it kind of struck me as one that is a keeper so I bucketed for future reference ... Yeah I know I am a sad weeny ...... I need help!

Saved image. Source for updating
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Perfection

Wouldn't be shocked if winds were near 180 knots.



Fantastic.
Especially at 11n.
Unbelievable.
Quoting 581. pottery:

Fantastic.
Especially at 11n.
Unbelievable.


What is so special about 11n?
James Reynolds %u200F@typhoonfury 4m
Large tree branch crashed down 6ft in front of me, made for interesting voice over I was doing! #YolandaPH #Haiyan pic.twitter.com/RFlcsc5WB1

Obviously he is outside, recording video ;-)
Should be near Thailand now maybe even the Gulf of Thailand..

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
3:00 AM JST November 8 2013
=================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression [35] (1008 hPa) located at 12.0N 101.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 10 knots.
Quoting Dodabear:


What is so special about 11n?

It's very seldom that storms can become this strong, so close to the equator.
Quoting 585. pottery:

It's very seldom that storms can become this strong, so close to the equator.


I thank you sir.
90A

Quoting 573. barbamz:


Jim Edds ‏@ExtremeStorms 5m
This is going to be awfully close http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/31W/image ry/rbtop_lalo-animated.gif … pic.twitter.com/alcip1mhEe
Stop moving that line southwards. You are making me nervous
Quoting 582. Dodabear:


What is so special about 11n?


Coriolis forces isn't strong at 11 N and you need good amount of Coriolis forces to make strong storms which can be found at 20 N to 30 N range.
no report of landfall yet.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #34
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON HAIYAN (T1330)
6:00 AM JST November 8 2013
===================================

Sea East Of The Philippines

At 21:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Haiyan (895 hPa) located at 10.8N 125.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 125 knots with gusts of 175 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 20 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
180 NM from the center in north quadrant
150 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T8.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 12.4N 117.4E - 120 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) South China Sea
45 HRS: 14.6N 111.1E - 105 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) South China Sea
69 HRS: 16.8N 105.0E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Overland Laos
Anyone have some comparable windspeed numbers for storms at 10n-11n ?

I dont recall anything like this so far south....
This storm is unbelievable!!! Yikes
Quoting 587. Torito:
90A



The well marked low pressure area over southwest & adjoining southeast Arabian sea persists.

Prediction of Meteorological Condition
-------------------------------------

The well marked low pressure would move west northwestwards and may concentrate into a depression during next 24 hours.
Nov 07, 2013

Deep, Warm Water Fuels Haiyan Intensification

The intensification of Super Typhoon Haiyan is being fueled by "ideal" environmental conditions - namely low wind shear and warm ocean temperatures. Maximum sustained winds are currently at 195 mph, well above the Category 5 classification used for Atlantic and East Pacific hurricanes.

Plotted here is the average Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential product for October 28 - November 3, 2013, taken directly from NOAA View.

This dataset, developed by NOAA/AOML, shows the total amount of heat energy available for the storm to absorb, not just on the surface, but integrated through the water column. Deeper, warmer pools of water are colored purple, though any region colored from pink to purple has sufficient energy to fuel storm intensification. The dotted line represents the best-track and forecast data as of 16:00 UTC on November 7, 2013.

To explore this data in NOAA View, select Ocean>>Temperature>>Heat Content>>Energy for Hurricanes

The image won't hot embed… here is the link
http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/MediaDetail2.php?MediaID =1452&MediaTypeID=1
Quoting 590. HadesGodWyvern:
no report of landfall yet.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #34
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON HAIYAN (T1330)
6:00 AM JST November 8 2013
===================================

Sea East Of The Philippines

At 21:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Haiyan (895 hPa) located at 10.8N 125.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 125 knots with gusts of 175 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 20 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
180 NM from the center in north quadrant
150 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T8.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 12.4N 117.4E - 120 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) South China Sea
45 HRS: 14.6N 111.1E - 105 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) South China Sea
69 HRS: 16.8N 105.0E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Overland Laos


Center did not quite make it to the peninsula.
Quoting 591. pottery:
Anyone have some comparable windspeed numbers for storms at 10n-11n ?

I dont recall anything like this so far south....


Not comparable by a longshot, but Ivan became a Cat-4 at 10.6N and a Cat-5 at about 13N. That's the best I've got.
Quoting 588. Caimito:
Stop moving that line southwards. You are making me nervous


Looks like as you will be spared of the worst in Southern Leyte :)
This animation is delayed for -hmm- half an hour, or so? So the eye should already be quite to your north.

30W..

a low pressure area may develop around November 9th over Andaman Sea.
Quoting 592. stormchaser19:
This storm is unbelievable!!! Yikes


It's warming up in CDO and eyewall. It's safe to say it'll be about 150 knots at landfall from 170 knots.


Center did not quite make it to the peninsula.


ah, conflicting in reports then.

PAGASA already has landfall.
Quoting 591. pottery:
Anyone have some comparable windspeed numbers for storms at 10n-11n ?

I dont recall anything like this so far south....

Bopha last year achieved Super Typhoon status below 10*N (think around 7*N if I remember correctly). WPac has done it a few times, although it's pretty rare. The only intense low riders I can think of off the top of my head in the Atlantic is Ivan '04 and Joan '88, and neither of these were as far south.
Quoting GBguy88:


Not comparable by a longshot, but Ivan became a Cat-4 at 10.6N and a Cat-5 at about 13N. That's the best I've got.

Yeah Ivan was a beast down here.
Demolished Grenada.
Killed a couple people here in landslides as we were under feeder bands for hours. (Trinidad)


30W in the Gulf of Thailand
Quoting 566. Patrap:
Multiplatform Tropical Cyclone MSLP and Maximum Winds



This thing is literally off the charts
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 1 min
The pressure drop at Tacloban should be impressive. Now 982.7mb as of 5:45am local (15 minutes ago) and dropping at 14 mb/hour.

Quoting 600. Bluestorm5:


It's warming up in CDO and eyewall. It's safe to say it'll be about 150 knots at landfall from 170 knots.

I disagree. Cloud tops may be warming a touch, but not enough to appreciably affect intensity prior to landfall, and certainly not a 20 kt crash.

Sunrise begins to illuminate one of the worst landfalling storms in history.

Still 8.0, but this was at 21z. It's 22z now. I'm expecting a drop to 7.8 due to warming CDO and eyewall.

2013NOV07 205700 8.0 884.6 170.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 19.13 -84.09 EYE 23 IR 101. 10.85 -125.76 COMBO MTSAT1 20.9
Quoting 608. 1900hurricane:

I disagree. Cloud tops may be warming a touch, but not enough to appreciably affect intensity prior to landfall, and certainly not a 20 kt crash.



I was just going by this:

613. VR46L
Quoting 609. Levi32:
Sunrise begins to illuminate one of the worst landfalling storms in history.



Can't wait to see it in an hour when it is fully illuminated.
Quoting 609. Levi32:
Sunrise begins to illuminate one of the worst landfalling storms in history.




Hey bro! How is your career going now?
Quoting 603. pottery:

Yeah Ivan was a beast down here.
Demolished Grenada.
Killed a couple people here in landslides as we were under feeder bands for hours. (Trinidad)


Ivan was a beast in the Florida panhandle even...we rode it out in coastal Gulf Breeze. I'm trying to imagine sustained winds easily 70-80mph higher, and it gives me chills.
Quoting 601. HadesGodWyvern:


ah, conflicting in reports then.

PAGASA already has landfall.


Maybe they have different criteria than the NHC?
Quoting barbamz:

Appreciate those Radar images. Thanks.
Quoting 603. pottery:

Yeah Ivan was a beast down here.
Demolished Grenada.
Killed a couple people here in landslides as we were under feeder bands for hours. (Trinidad)


Typhoon Haiyah/Yolanda ranks 3rd for being closest to the equator for reaching Cat 5. From Dr. Masters' blog yesterday at the top:

"Haiyan became a Cat 5 at an unusually low latitude (7.9 N), but this is not a record. The most southerly Cat 5 on record was Super Typhoon Louise of 1964 (7.3 N), followed by 2012's Super Typhoon Bopha (7.4 N)"
James Reynolds ‏@typhoonfury 15m

Large tree branch crashed down 6ft in front of me, made for interesting voice over I was doing! #YolandaPH #Haiyan pic.twitter.com/RFlcsc5WB1
It really doesn't matter the strength. This thing is still hitting Philippines as a Category 5 our scale and will be the strongest landfalling storm ever in modern history.
Quoting DonnieBwkGA:


Typhoon Haiyah/Yolanda ranks 3rd for being closest to the equator for reaching Cat 5. From Dr. Masters' blog yesterday at the top

"Haiyan became a Cat 5 at an unusually low latitude (7.9°N), but this is not a record. The most southerly Cat 5 on record was Super Typhoon Louise of 1964 (7.3°N), followed by 2012's Super Typhoon Bopha (7.4°N.)"

OK, thanks for that.
This typhoon is absolutely obscene! My prayers to all of those in its path.
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

Quoting 611. Bluestorm5:


I was just going by this:


Just because the extent of the CDO retracted a little in the SW quadrant does not mean cloud tops are warming across the entire CDO. That requires the use of a higher temperature scale than the one the AVN enhancement provided (like Rainbow).
Quoting 13. Ameister12:
Thanks Dr. Masters!

There really needs to be recon in the Western Pacific, so we can get accurate data from monster cyclones, like Haiyan.
I'm curious as to why there isn't? I assume that it's primarily political due to the various air spaces involved and that the nations involved can't come to an agreement on funding. But I'm basing this on just my gut feeling.
Bad Idea

Tiny Klout Flag58Jim Edds @ExtremeStorms 4m
981.4 mb at 6:05am, going out to shoot. Be back in a bit.
Jim Edds %u200F@ExtremeStorms 5m
981.4 mb at 6:05am, going out to shoot. Be back in a bit.

From Tacloban.
Quoting 629. Patrap:
Bad Idea

Tiny Klout Flag58Jim Edds %u200F@ExtremeStorms 4m
981.4 mb at 6:05am, going out to shoot. Be back in a bit.


Incredibly bad idea. I guess we'll know just how bad if we no longer get reports... :-\
Quoting 600. Bluestorm5:


It's warming up in CDO and eyewall. It's safe to say it'll be about 150 knots at landfall from 170 knots.


Yolanda made landfall at Guiuan at 4 p.m. EST according to the Philippines weather office.


Detailed Imagery of Super Typhoon Haiyan's Eye

The Suomi NPP satellite captured an incredibly detailed infrared image of Super Typhoon Haiyan's eye as it orbited over the storm at approximately 05:25 UTC on November 7, 2013. The entirety of the storm is actually cut-off by this and the previous orbit. This situation would normally result in reduced satellite data quality at the edges of the sensor scan. However, the VIIRS instrument has minimal data quality degradation at the scan edges, resulting in such highly detailed images.


The eye is almost fully visible on radar.
Link Click Doppler then select Cebu
Quoting Patrap:
Bad Idea

Tiny Klout Flag58Jim Edds @ExtremeStorms 4m
981.4 mb at 6:05am, going out to shoot. Be back in a bit.

Hope he has on his bullet-proof clothes........
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 4 min
@RyanMaue The western eyewall is structurally weaker than before - can tell from radar and extended warm region in IR image towards the west

Quoting 633. AussieStorm:


Detailed Imagery of Super Typhoon Haiyan's Eye

The Suomi NPP satellite captured an incredibly detailed infrared image of Super Typhoon Haiyan's eye as it orbited over the storm at approximately 05:25 UTC on November 7, 2013. The entirety of the storm is actually cut-off by this and the previous orbit. This situation would normally result in reduced satellite data quality at the edges of the sensor scan. However, the VIIRS instrument has minimal data quality degradation at the scan edges, resulting in such highly detailed images.


The eye is almost fully visible on radar.
Link Click Doppler then select Cebu


Good morning, Aussie. :)
Quoting 628. dogsgomoo:
I'm curious as to why there isn't? I assume that it's primarily political due to the various air spaces involved and that the nations involved can't come to an agreement on funding. But I'm basing this on just my gut feeling.


We had recon in the west pac until 1979. That's how we know about Typhoon Tip. It was cut as part of a spending reduction measure in 1980 and never restored.
Quoting Torito:


Good morning, Aussie. :)


Morning, I haven't slept much. I think you can understand why :-(
Sounds and images from Haiyan

Boracay Island CAM



Quoting pottery:

Hope he has on his bullet-proof clothes........


And his life jacket.
Quoting 639. AussieStorm:


Morning, I haven't slept much. I think you can understand why :-(


I will probably be the same tonight. With something like this on my mind, I likely won't get much sleep either.
I simply cannot Imagine..Living on one of those islands,no where to run to,and have that Monster storm coming in..prayers for those in its path.
Quoting 638. DonnieBwkGA:


We had recon in the west pac until 1979. That's how we know about Typhoon Tip. It was cut as part of a spending reduction measure in 1980 and never restored.
Interesting. Thanks for the added historical context. I would think that it would be a priority for the nations routinely impacted by West Pac storms like China, Taiwan, Japan, Indonesia, S. Korea, Philippines etc. Especially China. I assume China flies it's own, closed/military, recon missions into these storms?

Quoting 609. Levi32:
Sunrise begins to illuminate one of the worst landfalling storms in history.

Haiyan is as strong as they get(195 mph). Now I know that people hype a lot of these storms but I seriously doubt that anyone can come up with words or adjectives dramatic enough to overhype this one. My heart goes out to all of the people in this storms path. I pray for the best and pray that everyone there prepared very well for the worst.
Quoting 594. CaicosRetiredSailor:
Nov 07, 2013

Deep, Warm Water Fuels Haiyan Intensification

The image won't hot embed… here is the link
http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/MediaDetail2.php?MediaID =1452&MediaTypeID=1
Haiyan
Quoting 629. Patrap:
Bad Idea

Tiny Klout Flag58Jim Edds @ExtremeStorms 4m
981.4 mb at 6:05am, going out to shoot. Be back in a bit.

hope that "Be back in a bit" isn't hinting any irony. :(
2nd cold front here will be stronger next week......
Quoting 644. dogsgomoo:
Interesting. Thanks for the added historical context. I would think that it would be a priority for the nations routinely impacted by West Pac storms like China, Taiwan, Japan, Indonesia, S. Korea, Philippines etc. Especially China. I assume China flies it's own, closed/military, recon missions into these storms?


I don't know.
Quoting 646. Neapolitan:
Haiyan


Nea, please enlighten us with a new lightning map, would you?
Quoting 611. Bluestorm5:


I was just going by this:



That looks like a land fall, because you can see a sliver of the edge of the peninsula inside the eye on satellite. Even if it isn't an "official" landfall, that is probably where the highest on-land winds will have been experienced, since the storm will be weakening now, and that is clearly well inside the eye-wall. If anyone received 195mph sustained TC winds, that is probably the location to film to see what that looks like. I doubt anything will be standing in the area unless it's made of steel and concrete, which they don't have a lot of over there.

I can only hope that people were appropriately evacuated.
First full visible image from MTSAT:

Quoting Patrap:
Sounds and images from Haiyan

Boracay Island CAM





Those winds don't sound like they have reached down to far. This cam shows relatively calm.

Red Coconut Beach Hotel Cam.
Quoting 647. Articuno:

hope that "Be back in a bit" isn't hinting any irony. :(


Been 15 min on the feed now
Quoting 646. Neapolitan:
Haiyan


Thanks Neo
Tacloban with 22kmh/13 mph: broken or in the eye?
Maybe this is why the stormchasers are out.
Quoting 655. Patrap:


Been 15 min on the feed now


I can't believe he would have gone outside with the eyewall nearly on top of him in Tacloban. A foolish move in a weaker storm, let alone one of the strongest ever observed.
Must be hunkered down now Mr Reynolds.

Been awhile



63James Reynolds @typhoonfury 36min ago

Large tree branch crashed down 6ft in front of me, made for interesting voice over I was doing! #YolandaPH #Haiyan pic.twitter.com/RFlcsc5WB1
Quoting 654. LargoFl:


you think it's going to weaken that quickly?

JMA has 90 knots (115 knots) as it is overland Laos.
Quoting 658. barbamz:
Tacloban with 22kmh/13 mph: broken or in the eye?
Maybe this is why the stormchasers are out.



i think those data machines are decently sealed up to keep the storms from destroying them (as quickly) which might explain low winds.
Quoting dogsgomoo:
Interesting. Thanks for the added historical context. I would think that it would be a priority for the nations routinely impacted by West Pac storms like China, Taiwan, Japan, Indonesia, S. Korea, Philippines etc. Especially China. I assume China flies it's own, closed/military, recon missions into these storms?


The Hong Kong Weather Observatory does fly recon but only in there territorial waters. That is the problem now in that part of the world, China is trying to flex it's muscles and claim regions already claimed by other countries. There is currently a dispute over an island region in the South China Sea.
Quoting 662. HadesGodWyvern:


you think it's going to weaken that quickly?

JMA has 90 knots (115 knots) as it is overland Laos.
we'll see what happens,over land it should weaken some...i'd be looking at a cat 2 or cat 3 there..but it could weaken even more,we just have to wait and see.


Mother Nature at it's full wrath.
Visible mode now working. (without IR enhancements)

669. VR46L
Sun up and land fall shortly

if thyis was coming to florida,I'd be in NYC geez...
I said this would be bad a week ago. But I had no idea this would be a practical Category 6. Say a prayer for the people in the way of it.

Haiyan's near 200 mph winds means that this is like a 15 mile wide EF-4/EF-5 tornado plowing into land
James Reynolds ‏@typhoonfury 4m

Strong winds starting to hammer Tacloban, this lady praying... #yolandaPH #Haiyan #typhoon pic.twitter.com/5amhEQhcjW
Quoting VR46L:
Sun up and land fall shortly



We've already had landfall.
pat, can you get the earthcam up again?
Looks like the northern eyewall will pass over Tacloban City.
Wow one of my clients is there right now , hope he stays safe
679. VR46L
Quoting 674. AussieStorm:


We've already had landfall.


Would that be considered landfall it was only half the eye ....
Quoting 672. iTrollTheTrolls:
I said this would be bad a week ago.




This is an image I saved about a week ago (November 2).
Hourly observation for Tacloban is 30 minutes late.

Strong winds starting to hammer Tacloban, this lady praying... #yolandaPH #Haiyan #typhoon pic.twitter.com/5amhEQhcjW"

https://twitter.com/typhoonfury
The eastern islands of the Philippines are being slammed right now by 200+ mph wind gusts. I hope that everyone there treated this storm as the people in India did with Phailin last month by evacuating the whole landfall, path, and storm surge area.
Quoting 679. VR46L:


Would that be considered landfall it was only half the eye ....


I think so. Guiuan, a town of 48,000 was inside the eye. That sounds like landfall to me.

And I'm sure it sounded like hell to them.
http://www.earthcam.com/world/philippines/boracay/

Boracay webcam
Storm is still East of that location.
Just can't see a storm getting stronger than what it was at few hours ago. What was the lowest official pressure for this storm? Monica looked very similar and it had an un-official measurement of 869, tip was 870, what was Nancy's pressure when it was allegedly at 215 mph. I feel like all of us are watching something that will be a part of the history books for a long time.
Landfall is jus a point in a Large Super storm as Half the System and all the surge is inland.


The impact is overall, not a single point.

FULL VIZ


Quoting VR46L:


Would that be considered landfall it was only half the eye ....


I don't think it was half an eye,


from PAGASA twitter

The eye of Typhoon “YOLANDA” was located at 35 km west of Guiuan, Eastern Samar (10.9°N, 125.4°E) with maximum sustained winds of 235 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 275 km/h.

Quoting 688. kingcane:
Just can't see a storm getting stronger than what it was at few hours ago. What was the lowest official pressure for this storm? Monica looked very similar and it had an un-official measurement of 869, tip was 870, what was Nancy's pressure when it was allegedly at 215 mph. I feel like all of us are watching something that will be a part of the history books for a long time.
This will indeed be in the history books for a long time especially considering the intensity that it is hitting land with.
Unbelievable
Lagging behind from first light on the Western Eyewall Stadium,

Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery
Quoting 685. Civicane49:
Amazing the force of mother nature, aye Civic? This may very well be one of the strongest storms ever to make landfall. Up there with Andrew, Camille, Mitch, Cyclone Bopha, Cyclone Nargis, 1780 Great Hurricane, and 1900 Galveston Hurricane. Hey do they retire Typhoons because if they do this one is on that list?
So, the next time you think you're having a bad morning because you spilled your coffee, bring this image to mind. Poor folks along the coast.

Never have I ever seen a storm quite like this. I am truly at a loss for words. I'm sure that we will be telling our grandchildren about this storm. Something tells me that this probably is the strongest storm ever recorded. Remember this day folks.
Quoting 694. Patrap:
Lagging behind from first light on the Western Eyewall Stadium,

Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery
I try to imagine but cannot..And I have witnessed a 4...
Storm Relative 16 km Geostationary Water Vapor Imagery

I don't think I'll ever see a storm this perfect ever again in my lifetime. Hopefully everyone is out of harm's way.
Quoting 695. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Amazing the force of mother nature, aye Civic? This may very well be one of the strongest storms ever to make landfall. Up there with Andrew, Camille, Mitch, Cyclone Bopha, Cyclone Nargis, 1780 Great Hurricane, and 1900 Galveston Hurricane. Hey do they retire Typhoons because if they do this one is on that list?


yeah they do retire typhoon names:
Link

Super Typhoon Bopha is on that list.
It's frightening when evac centres, hospitals and command posts are located so very close to the Leyte Gulf.





Street level, Tacloban, Leyte. (Video)
..were gonna need a bigger graph scale


Multiplatform Tropical Cyclone MSLP and Maximum Winds
Quoting 695. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Amazing the force of mother nature, aye Civic? This may very well be one of the strongest storms ever to make landfall. Up there with Andrew, Camille, Mitch, Cyclone Bopha, Cyclone Nargis, 1780 Great Hurricane, and 1900 Galveston Hurricane. Hey do they retire Typhoons because if they do this one is on that list?


Names in the western Pacific do get retired also if they caused significant damage and deaths.
Oooofffph'

Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
from PAGASA twitter

The eye of Typhoon “YOLANDA” was located at 35 km west of Guiuan, Eastern Samar (10.9°N, 125.4°E) with maximum sustained winds of 235 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 275 km/h.

As expected. Under forecasting again. How come we can see it's much stronger and they can't?
Quoting 706. hurricanes2018:

By: Benjamin Hart
It seems the the rumors were true after all! StarWars.com has official announced the release date for Star Wars Episode VII, which will be December 18th, 2015! The official press release is as follows:
"With pre-production in full-swing, a confirmed release date of December 18, 2015, has been set for Lucasfilm's highly anticipated Star Wars: Episode VII.
"We're very excited to share the official 2015 release date for Star Wars: Episode VII, where it will not only anchor the popular holiday filmgoing season but also ensure our extraordinary filmmaking team has the time needed to deliver a sensational picture," said Alan Horn, chairman of The Walt Disney Studios."
Well that settles it folks, Star Wars fans are going to have a very merry Christmas in 2015!

BIG NEWS HERE!!!



???????
Quoting 702. AussieStorm:
It's frightening when evac centres, hospitals and command posts are located so very close to the Leyte Gulf.





Street level, Tacloban, Leyte. (Video)

Impressed by the lunatic on the motorcycle
Mactan, Cebu radar site has a nice view of Haiyan, but don't expect it to be up for much longer.
Quoting 706. hurricanes2018:

By: Benjamin Hart
It seems the the rumors were true after all! StarWars.com has official announced the release date for Star Wars Episode VII, which will be December 18th, 2015! The official press release is as follows:
"With pre-production in full-swing, a confirmed release date of December 18, 2015, has been set for Lucasfilm's highly anticipated Star Wars: Episode VII.
"We're very excited to share the official 2015 release date for Star Wars: Episode VII, where it will not only anchor the popular holiday filmgoing season but also ensure our extraordinary filmmaking team has the time needed to deliver a sensational picture," said Alan Horn, chairman of The Walt Disney Studios."
Well that settles it folks, Star Wars fans are going to have a very merry Christmas in 2015!

BIG NEWS HERE!!!


Umm.. uhh

okay???

I think your in the wrong blog dude.
Quoting 706. hurricanes2018:

By: Benjamin Hart
It seems the the rumors were true after all! StarWars.com has official announced the release date for Star Wars Episode VII, which will be December 18th, 2015! The official press release is as follows:
"With pre-production in full-swing, a confirmed release date of December 18, 2015, has been set for Lucasfilm's highly anticipated Star Wars: Episode VII.
"We're very excited to share the official 2015 release date for Star Wars: Episode VII, where it will not only anchor the popular holiday filmgoing season but also ensure our extraordinary filmmaking team has the time needed to deliver a sensational picture," said Alan Horn, chairman of The Walt Disney Studios."
Well that settles it folks, Star Wars fans are going to have a very merry Christmas in 2015!

BIG NEWS HERE!!!


We can talk about the new (and most likely crappy) Star Wars movie sometime else. We have a deadly typhoon wreaking havoc right now.
This dude is live for one of the local Philippine TV stations. I'm looking for a live feed, but here is his twitter account for now.

Link
Quoting 708. AussieStorm:

As expected. Under forecasting again. How come we can see it's much stronger and they can't?

Are they using 10-minute winds instead of 1-minute winds?
Quoting Patrap:
Oooofffph'


Glory be !
That's a big hole.
Quoting 713. Articuno:


Umm.. uhh

okay???

I think your in the wrong blog dude.


I'm a huge Star Wars fan, and I'm hyped about Episode VII, but I really don't care about Star Wars right now in the face of a horrendous Super Typhoon making landfall.
we could have two record storms in a short time here...when will they start naming Solar storms...just saying
Here we go: first forecast getting down in the 30's here in the FL Panhandle!

Link

Quoting 714. AussieStorm:



save that image. :)
Quoting 720. FIVEPOINTO:
we could have two record storms in a short time here...when will they start naming Solar storms...just saying


You are talking about two totally separate things here.
I'm going to assume that the barometers have all been destroyed as I haven't seen an accurate pressure reading in a while.
Boracay Beach webcam totally dark. Says it is/was number 7 of top ten beaches in the world.
Quoting Torito:



save that image. :)

...another radar bites the dust.
Jim Edds ‏@ExtremeStorms 47min ago

981.4 mb at 6:05am, going out to shoot. Be back in a bit.
Reply Retweet
Quoting 724. Patrap:
What is that "second eye", is it an echo?
Found a live feed of one of the morning newscasts. Don't forget, its 6:55 AM Friday over there right now. I believe this is from Manila.

Link
Quoting 729. weatherboy1251:
What is that "second eye", is it an echo?



Just a glitched up reflection. It happens often in strong storms.
732. Kumo
Quoting 726. unknowncomic:
Boracay Beach webcam totally dark. Says it is/was number 7 of top ten beaches in the world.


This one is still active.

Link
Quoting Patrap:
Jim Edds ‏@ExtremeStorms 47min ago

981.4 mb at 6:05am, going out to shoot. Be back in a bit.
Reply Retweet


Lets hope he comes back soon and hasn't been blown away.


Another video from Tacloban City.
Quoting 708. AussieStorm:

As expected. Under forecasting again. How come we can see it's much stronger and they can't?


they follow JMA alternative 10 min average scale instead of giving 150 knots... they might as well compare it with other agencies.
Quoting 729. weatherboy1251:
What is that "second eye", is it an echo?


I believe so, as the Night IR Sensor tracks the Storms Center along, and that artifact,as your nicely stated is a Negative "echo".

We have seen it before, as late as the last Typhoon .
We have one of the Strongest storms of the season here on Earth and could get hit simultaneously buy the strongest solar storm from AR1890 which is facing directly towards earth...the poles are lighting up as we speak.
Quoting 726. unknowncomic:
Boracay Beach webcam totally dark. Says it is/was number 7 of top ten beaches in the world.

This one still active
http://www.earthcam.com/world/philippines/boracay /
Waves are picking up.

Link
Quoting 729. weatherboy1251:
What is that "second eye", is it an echo?

Could be. Latest Microwave image shows what possibly could be the beginning of an EWRC.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Star Wars nerds are like Ninja's. You never know when or where they'll show up.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


they follow JMA alternative 10 min average scale instead of giving 150 knots... they might as well compare it with other agencies.


yeah, that's what I mean.
Quoting 737. medicroc:

This one still active
http://www.earthcam.com/world/philippines/boracay /

Looks like a few people came down to the beach to watch the excitement

2 km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve
Quoting 730. Chucktown:
Found a live feed of one of the morning newscasts. Don't forget, its 6:55 AM Friday over there right now. I believe this is from Manila.

Link



... I dont understand philippenisan language.... or however you would say it....
Things don't look so bad on that Boracay webcam
Why is there a guy swimming or something there?


Idiot. :/


Link
Quoting 745. Torito:



... I dont understand philippenisan language.... or however you would say it....


Then don't watch. I don't care.
I mean... borocay isn't even under the edges of the CDO yet. Though it'll be getting slammed later today.
Here's a list of storms which had winds over 190MPH and their pressures. Just so we can get an idea of what we are dealing with.

1. Nancy (1961) - 215 MPH - 882mbar
2. Violet (1961) - 205 MPH - 895 mbar
3. Ida (1958) - 200 MPH (allegedly 215) - 877 mbar
4. Kit (1966) - 195 MPH - 880 mbar
4. Joan (1959) - 195 MPH - 885 mbar
4. Haiyan (2013) - 195 MPH - 895 mbar
4. Sally (1964) - 195 MPH - 895 mbar
4. Opal (1964) - 195 MPH - 900 mbar

Please take note that most of these storms occurred before 1970. I really think that the pressure for Haiyan is way too high for wind speed it has. Even based on the Dvorvak technique its too high. For winds of 195 it should have a pressure of 858 not 895. I know 858 is sounds crazy, which is why I complied all the actual recordings above into an average. That average dis including Haiyan is:

215 - 882 mbar
205 - 895 mbar
200 - 877 mbar
195 - 891 mbar

overall 200+ - 880 mbar
overall 195 - 891 mbar

Also lets add 190 storms from the western pacific. There's 6 from the western pacific.

1. Tip (1979) - 190 MPH - 870 mbar
2. Vanessa (1984) - 190 MPH - 880 mbar
3. Vera (1959) - 190 MPH - 895 mbar
4. Grace (1958) - 190 MPH - 905 mbar
5. Sarah (1959) - 190 MPH - 905 mbar
6. Louise (1964) - 190 MPH - 915 mbar

*Notice that the storms after 1970 have a lower pressure than storms before 1970.

The average for 190 MPH storms is: 894.8

Just for kicks lets get the average for storms before and after 1970 and compare (this will include 190 MPH storms)

before 1970 - 893 mbar
after 1970 - 882 mbar (875 mbar not counting Haiyan)

It seems rather obvious to me that storms after 1970 are have lower pressure reading than storms before 1970. In this case, why does Haiyan have such a high pressure!?

***I may have missed some storms, please let me know if I have!***
Quoting 597. barbamz:


Looks like as you will be spared of the worst in Southern Leyte :)
This animation is delayed for -hmm- half an hour, or so? So the eye should already be quite to your north.

The track has once again moved slightly southwards. Between Dulag & Abuyog should be where it (centre) makes real landfall in an hour or so. So it will track at 60km from us. The wind is changing to SW and getting stronger
752. VR46L
Incredible cloud tops.. peircing the sphear
almost sucking space cold
*repost

Take a look at that two satellites and you'll see what I was getting at...

The Philippines are indeed hit very very often. The size, strength and magnitude of this one will likely exceed that of any other landfalling system they've had, at least for some time. I don't think Bopha or Megi ever had an appearance quite like this. These islands are small and likely won't induce the amount of weakening as Luzon would. Wind, surge and rainfall will be extreme. Although the death toll could be very high or we will be surprised and they'll weather this thing out fairly well, the potential is certainly there for this being an absolute catastrophe. I doubt it will or even could rival some of the Indian Ocean cyclones due to the geography, but as far as the Philippines go, this is likely to be storm they're talking about and comparing to for a very long time.

Bopha landfall:



Haiyan: