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Category 5 Super Typhoon Haiyan Headed Towards the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:05 PM GMT on November 06, 2013

Evacuations are underway in the Philippines Islands as extremely dangerous Category 5 Super Typhoon Haiyan heads west-northwest at 20 mph towards the islands. Haiyan, which is the Chinese word for a petrel seabird, is referred to as "Yolanda" in the Philippines, and became a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds at 12 UTC (7 am EDT) Wednesday. Haiyan became a Cat 5 at an unusually low latitude (7.9°N), but this is not a record. The most southerly Cat 5 on record was Super Typhoon Louise of 1964 (7.3°N), followed by 2012's Super Typhoon Bopha (7.4°N.) Haiyan is the fourth Category 5 storm in the Western Pacific and fifth on Earth so far in 2013. This is the highest number of Cat 5s since 2009, which had four Cat 5s in the Western Pacific and one in the Eastern Pacific. Since 2000, Earth has averaged 4.4 of these mightiest of tropical cyclones per year. The record for Cat 5s in a year is twelve, set in 1997, when an astonishing ten Cat 5s occurred in the Western Pacific. The Atlantic has not had a Category 5 storm since Hurricane Felix of 2007, making the past six years the longest stretch without a Cat 5 since 1981 - 1987.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Haiyan taken at 1:57 UTC November 6, 2013. The islands at the left are part of the Caroline Islands, which recorded sustained winds of 37 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 15 UTC November 7, 2013. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS.

Satellite loops show that Haiyan is a spectacular typhoon with a tiny pinhole eye just 9 miles in diameter. A buoy (station 52087) reported a pressure of 956 mb and sustained WNW winds of 67 mph at 1000 UTC (5 am EDT) Tuesday morning in the southern eyewall of Haiyan. With warm waters that extend to great depth, low wind shear, and excellent upper-level outflow, Haiyan will likely stay at Category 4 or 5 strength until landfall occurs between 03 - 06 UTC Friday in the central Philippine islands of Samar or Leyte. The only brake on Haiyan's strength over the next day might be an eyewall replacement cycle, which will be capable of causing a temporary weakening of perhaps 20 mph in the storm's winds.


Figure 2. Predicted rainfall from the 06Z November 6, 2013 run of the HWRF model, for the 126-hour period ending at 12Z November 11, 2013. A 100-mile wide swath of 8+ inches of rain (medium dark red colors) is predicted to cross the Central Philippines and Northern Vietnam. Image credit: NOAA/NCEP/EMC.

Haiyan a major storm surge threat
The storm surge potential for Haiyan is very concerning, if the typhoon maintains its current forecast track and makes landfall on Leyte Island. This track would push a dangerous storm surge into the funnel-shaped Leyte Gulf, which comes to a point in Tacloban, population 221,000, the capital of the province of Leyte. Much of Tacloban is at elevations less than ten feet, and the experimental storm surge forecasts from the European Commission's Joint Research Centre HyFlux2 model made on November 5 and November 6 have called for a storm surge of 5 - 10 feet (1.6 - 2.9 meters) to hit Tacloban. This model has not been verified for the Philippines, and it is not unreasonable to speculate that the storm surge could be higher along a 20-mile swath of the coast to the north of where the eye hits, if it indeed comes ashore in Leyte. If the eye strikes farther north on Samar Island, this would not generate as high of a storm surge, since there is no triangular-shaped bay there to funnel the waters to a peak. Storm surge forecasts made by the Philippines' Project NOAH at 00 UTC November 6, 2013, are calling for no more than 2 meters (6.6 feet) of surge throughout the Philippines from Haiyan.


Figure 3. Elevation map of Leyte Island (left) and Samar Island (top) in the Philippines. Much of the capital of Leyte, Tacloban, is at an elevation less than 4 meters (13'), red to dark red colors. The predicted path of Haiyan’s eye in the 21 UTC November 6, 2013 Joint Typhoon Warning Center advisory is shown. Image credit: Globalwarmingart.com.

Haiyan the fifth named storm to hit the Philippines in 2013
Haiyan will be the fourth typhoon and fifth named storm to hit the Philippines this year. The others were:

Tropical Storm Rumbia, which hit the island of Samar on June 29 as a tropical storm, killing six.
Typhoon Nari, which hit Luzon on October 11 as a Category 3 typhoon with 115 mph winds, killing five.
Typhoon Utor, which hit Luzon on August 12 as a Category 4 typhoon with 140 mph winds, killing fourteen and causing $25 million in damage.
Typhoon Krosa, which hit northern Luzon on October 31 as a Category 2 typhoon with 105 mph winds, killing five and doing $5 million in damage.

The Philippines lie in the most tropical cyclone-prone waters on Earth, and rarely escape a year without experiencing a devastating typhoon. Usually, these storms impact the northern Philippine island of Luzon, but last year, Earth's deadliest weather disaster of 2012 occurred on the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, where Super Typhoon Bopha struck as a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h), on December 3. Bopha made two additional landfalls in the Philippines, on central Visayas and on Palawan, on December 4. The typhoon left 1901 people dead, mostly on the island of Mindanao, making Bopha the 2nd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. With damages estimated at $1.7 billion, Bopha was the costliest natural disaster in Philippines history. However, that mark was eclipsed just over four months ago, when torrential rains in the wake of Typhoon Trami inundated the capital of Manila and large areas of Luzon, killing 27 people and causing damages estimated at $2.2 billion by Aon Benfield.


Figure 4. Torrential rains, due, in part, to moisture from Typhoon Trami, fell in the Philippines August 18 - 21, 2013, causing massive flooding on Luzon Island that cost $2.2 billion. Twenty-seven people were killed, and 60% of metro Manila was under water at the peak of the flood. According to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database, this flood would be the most expensive natural disaster in Philippine history. In this photo, pedicabs and makeshift rafts ferry office workers and pedestrians through flood waters that submerged parts of the financial district of Makati on August 20, 2013 in Makati City south of Manila, Philippines. Image credit: Dondi Tawatao/Getty Images)


Figure 5. Super Typhoon Bopha as seen from the International Space Station on December 2, 2012. At the time, Bopha had top sustained winds of 150 - 155 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Depression 30 a heavy rainfall threat for Southeast Asia
Tropical Depression 30 is making landfall over southern Vietnam, and will bring heavy rains of 8+ inches to portions of Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, and Thailand over the next few days. The storm is expected to dissipate over Southeast Asia by Thursday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

hr 168 00z gfs


Maybe the northern jet stream (and associated wintry weather) is a bit more west than depicted here, but otherwise, I agree with this forecast:

Link

hr 168 wet bulb temp

I have a small hotel in Southern Leyte.

It feels very weird here. Lots of people in less than ideal houses have moved either to relatives houses or evacuation centres. Some of our staff will sleep here.

There is ZERO wind at present but the rain is getting heavier (31mm per hr as I write).

The heavy rain expected, may become the biggest problem. There are parts of the province susceptible to landslides (the 2006 one buried a whole village of Guinsaugon).

400mm is expected in 24 hrs
Quoting 485. Climate175:
The Snow for DC


These events are rare but not unprecedented this early. That said, this is 150 hours out! A lot can change.

(GWV, with four snow shovels,[ learned my lesson in 2010] three teenagers, two cords of wood, and a woodstove :-) )
Quoting 505. georgevandenberghe:


These events are rare but not unprecedented this early. That said, this is 150 hours out! A lot can change.

(GWV, with four snow shovels,[ learned my lesson in 2010] three teenagers, two cords of wood, and a woodstove :-) )
Sounds like a interesting story :).
Quoting 504. Caimito:
I have a small hotel in Southern Leyte.

It feels very weird here. Lots of people in less than ideal houses have moved either to relatives houses or evacuation centres. Some of our staff will sleep here.

There is ZERO wind at present but the rain is getting heavier (31mm per hr as I write).

The heavy rain expected, may become the biggest problem. There are parts of the province susceptible to landslides (the 2006 one buried a whole village of Guinsaugon).

400mm is expected in 24 hrs


31W/MT/H/C5


TPPN12 PGTW 070312

A. SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN)

B. 07/0230Z

C. 8.9N

D. 131.9E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.5/7.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG SURROUNDED BY CMG ( 1.0 CMG)
YIELDS A DT OF 7.5. MET WAS 8.0; PT WAS 6.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LONG
TPPN12 PGTW 070312

A. SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN)

B. 07/0230Z

C. 8.9N

D. 131.9E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.5/7.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG SURROUNDED BY CMG (+1.0 CMG)
YIELDS A DT OF 7.5. MET WAS 8.0; PT WAS 6.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LONG
KOTG - See the spaceweather forecast for another X/M class CME?

High probabilties and these could be directed at Earth.

Source: www.spaceweather.com

Quoting 501. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
hr 168 00z gfs




That forecast for the precip can't possible be true. That would mean I would see flurries. In November. No way I can get that lucky.
Quoting 502. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Maybe the northern jet stream (and associated wintry weather) is a bit more west than depicted here, but otherwise, I agree with this forecast:

Link



Icy? No. No. And...no. The correct answer is snow for Tennessee.
Quoting 509. Dakster:
KOTG - See the spaceweather forecast for another X/M class CME?

High probabilties and these could be directed at Earth.

Source: www.spaceweather.com



i know activity seems to be picking up as ison flies in closer

I expect activity till at least 29 nov and ison's sling shot around the other side
Quoting 511. Astrometeor:


That forecast for the precip can't possible be true. That would mean I would see flurries. In November. No way I can get that lucky.


over done its only second run

it will change a thousand times

but its fun to watch
Quoting 507. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


31W/MT/H/C5


TPPN12 PGTW 070312

A. SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN)

B. 07/0230Z

C. 8.9N

D. 131.9E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.5/7.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG SURROUNDED BY CMG ( 1.0 CMG)
YIELDS A DT OF 7.5. MET WAS 8.0; PT WAS 6.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LONG



this think if this was in the gulf of MX right now i think the blog would be going nuts

so i was looking at the list at the 50 lowest pressure typhoon, and i noticed that only 2 are from the 2000s or 2010s.... does this mean that storms were overestimated back then, or what?
Quoting 506. washingtonian115:
Sounds like a interesting story :).


just for you wash





Quoting 508. TropicalAnalystwx13:
TPPN12 PGTW 070312

A. SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN)

B. 07/0230Z

C. 8.9N

D. 131.9E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.5/7.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG SURROUNDED BY CMG (+1.0 CMG)
YIELDS A DT OF 7.5. MET WAS 8.0; PT WAS 6.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LONG
I don't really understand these DT yields :(
GFS is giving me hopes for the first snowfall of season in Asheville next week... it's frustrating that you're not sure about the run because of elevation changes in the area.
Quoting 518. Caimito:
I don't really understand these DT yields :(


8.0 is the strongest possible strength estimated by satellites for tropical cyclones. I don't think I've seen it before.
While Haiyan is extremely intense, I think the Brits may be overdoing their intensity estimate a touch.
Quoting 516. nwobilderburg:

so i was looking at the list at the 50 lowest pressure typhoon, and i noticed that only 2 are from the 2000s or 2010s.... does this mean that storms were overestimated back then, or what?
Aerial recon was in operation in the WPac.

Even the most recent readings are derived from actual aerial recon data however such flights are not frequent.
Double post.
Quoting 520. Bluestorm5:


8.0 is the strongest possible strength estimated by satellites for tropical cyclones. I don't think I've seen it before.
Thank you for that. My personal weather station is ISOUTHER13

As you can see, the rain has stopped and virtually no wind. I won't be like that tomorrow. The EYE is predicted to pass 60KM north of here in about 24 hours
31W/MT/H/C5
Quoting 523. MoltenIce:




All I can say is wow.
8.0, wow.
Quoting 522. MoltenIce:
Aerial recon was in operation in the WPac.

Even the most recent readings are derived from actual aerial recon data however such flights are not frequent.

why do we not do aerial recon as much... didnt they fly 50 flights into tip
According to SAB,
TXPQ25 KNES 070304
TCSWNP

A. 31W (HAIYAN)

B. 07/0230Z

C. 9.0N

D. 131.9E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.5/7.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=7.5 BASED ON CMG RING WITH WMB EYE. PT=7.5. MET=7.5. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ
Quoting 530. Bobbyweather:
According to SAB,
TXPQ25 KNES 070304
TCSWNP

A. 31W (HAIYAN)

B. 07/0230Z

C. 9.0N

D. 131.9E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.5/7.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=7.5 BASED ON CMG RING WITH WMB EYE. PT=7.5. MET=7.5. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ
there is a conflict with the two I went with the higher reading

its very close to a perfect presentation for now
Quoting 525. Caimito:
Thank you for that. My personal weather station is ISOUTHER13

As you can see, the rain has stopped and virtually no wind. I won't be like that tomorrow. The EYE is predicted to pass 60KM north of here in about 24 hours
Well, there's one good news... you're on the weaker side of storm and maybe outside eyewall. Bad news? This is still very powerful storm with nasty surge. Hope you do well!
NOAA had for the peak a few hours ago.

2013NOV06 223000 7.7 875.3mb +4.7 161.0kts 7.6 7.7 7.7 NO LIMIT ON OFF 14.07 -80.57 EYE
The well marked low pressure area over southeast Arabian sea moved westwards and now lies over central parts of south Arabian sea and neighborhood.

Prediction of Meteorological Condition
======================================

The well mark low pressure would move west northwestwards and concentrate into a depression by afternoon of today
Quoting 533. Skyepony:
NOAA had for the peak a few hours ago.

2013NOV06 223000 7.7 875.3mb 4.7 161.0kts 7.6 7.7 7.7 NO LIMIT ON OFF 14.07 -80.57 EYE
We can disregard the pressure data but wow 160 knots.

Quoting 529. nwobilderburg:

why do we not do aerial recon as much... didnt they fly 50 flights into tip


Tip was in 1979. The USAF ended Hurricane Hunter ops in the WPac in late 80s or maybe the early 90s.
Quoting 533. Skyepony:
NOAA had for the peak a few hours ago.

2013NOV06 223000 7.7 875.3mb 4.7 161.0kts 7.6 7.7 7.7 NO LIMIT ON OFF 14.07 -80.57 EYE


Isn't this getting close to the lowest pressure ever recorded? I believe Wilma was 882 (lowest in Atlantic) and Tip was 870. I know intensity can fall rapidly, but it is hard to see how this storm is being overhyped as some suggest since it is getting close to landfall.
Quoting 537. LesBonsTemps:


Isn't this getting close to the lowest pressure ever recorded? I believe Wilma was 882 (lowest in Atlantic) and Tip was 870. I know intensity can fall rapidly, but it is hard to see how this storm is being overhyped as some suggest since it is getting close to landfall.
Reliable pressure data is from the JMA.
Quoting 537. LesBonsTemps:


Isn't this getting close to the lowest pressure ever recorded? I believe Wilma was 882 (lowest in Atlantic) and Tip was 870. I know intensity can fall rapidly, but it is hard to see how this storm is being overhyped as some suggest since it is getting close to landfall.


By Dvorak technique this is a very scary storm. Dvorak might not be perfect. I take these as estimates based on storm presentation. But take in the perimeters that could make these readings more apt to be wrong, it's maintained like this for hours, trying for pinwheel..
Quoting 543. Skyepony:


By Dvorak technique this is a very scary storm. Dvorak might not be perfect. I take these as estimates based on storm presentation. But take in the perimeters that could make these readings more apt to be wrong, it's maintained like this for hours, trying for pinwheel..
To be honest I wouldn't be surprised if the actual pressure is close to the NOAA estimation.

What we need is a WC-130 flying around the eye right now.
Quoting 543. Skyepony:


By Dvorak technique this is a very scary storm. Dvorak might not be perfect. I take these as estimates based on storm presentation. But take in the perimeters that could make these readings more apt to be wrong, it's maintained like this for hours, trying for pinwheel..
Problem is that recons haven't gone into storms in WPAC for a while. I think we might have couple of storms stronger than Tip, but there wasn't a plane in place to measure :(
Reliable pressure data is from the JMA.


take your pick on the which pressure to believe, but ya the JMA is the one that will get documented.

JMA = 905 hPa
CMA = 900 hPa
KMA = 900 hPa
CWB = 905 hPa
PAGASA = 927 hPa
Quoting 545. Bluestorm5:
Problem is that recons haven't gone into storms in WPAC for a while. I think we might have couple of storms stronger than Tip, but there wasn't a plane in place to measure :(
This is one prime candidate.

Last WPac storm recon went through is Megi in 2010 which they reported a pressure of 885 mbar.
Quoting 532. Bluestorm5:
Well, there's one good news... you're on the weaker side of storm and maybe outside eyewall. Bad news? This is still very powerful storm with nasty surge. Hope you do well!
Thank you. We are on the Ocean (south-west side, in Maasin). One consolation is that the daytime high and low tides are on the very low side. We also have a concrete seawall, and the grounds are elevated.
Having said that, we are taking many precautions.

As I see it, the current track will make landfall between Dulag and Abuyog
Trough over Asian Seaboard might be strong enough to cause this Typhoon to turn due north toward China after coming through the Philippines.
I think it's safe to say that Haiyan no longer has any issues with outflow restriction.



The convection in the eyewall....not much more perfect than that is possible. Looks even better than Monica!
That's what you call a warm core.

I have got to admit it look pretty in the above shots.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON HAIYAN (T1330)
15:00 PM JST November 7 2013
===================================

Sea East Of Mindanao

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Haiyan (905 hPa) located at 9.3N 131.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots with gusts of 165 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 18 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T7.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 11.4N 123.8E - 110 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Overland Visayas region
48 HRS: 13.1N 115.2E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
72 HRS: 15.3N 108.3E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Overland Vietnam
895 hPa from China Meteorological Administration now

** WTPQ20 BABJ 070600 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SUPERTY HAIYAN 1330 (1330) INITIAL TIME 070600 UTC
00HR 9.3N 131.1E 895HPA 70M/S
30KTS 380KM
50KTS 160KM
I searched all the research recon & such. Didn't find anything.

Quoting 554. Caimito:
I have got to admit it look pretty in the above shots.


Best of luck to you & your PWS. I put a sticker of it in my blog comments to watch.

NOAA dvorak has slight strengthening.



http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/

wow that is quite the glitch

(There are no active tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific/Northern Indian Ocean/Central Pacific/ or Southern Hemisphere)
what the heck happened?!
Quoting 561. Civicane49:

wow...thats nearly perfect
2013NOV07 065700 7.6 879.2 +4.4 158.0 7.6 7.8 7.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 17.54 -81.99 EYE 27 IR 84.2 9.53 -130.72

the raw Dvorak is getting closer.. and closer to that 8.0 number.
Quoting 563. HadesGodWyvern:
2013NOV07 065700 7.6 879.2 +4.4 158.0 7.6 7.8 7.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 17.54 -81.99 EYE 27 IR 84.2 9.53 -130.72

the raw Dvorak is getting closer.. and closer to that 8.0 number.
So that is good for you guys, and bad for me :)
Quoting 564. Caimito:
So that is good for you guys, and bad for me :)


lol

Are you in Haiyan's path?
Quoting 565. KoritheMan:


lol

Are you in Haiyan's path?
About 30 miles south of the predicted track ISOUTHER13 is my PWS location.
JTWC
2013NOV07 073000 7.7 898.6 161.0 7.7 7.9 7.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 19.23 -82.59 EYE 28 IR 86.2 9.72 -130.48 COMBO MTSAT1 15.9

JMA
2013NOV07 073000 7.7 875.0 +4.4 161.0 7.7 7.9 7.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 19.23 -82.57 EYE 28 IR 84.2 9.73 -130.56 COMBO MTSAT1 15.8

Truly a strong system.
CIMSS
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 NOV 2013 Time : 073000 UTC
Lat : 9:43:02 N Lon : 130:29:01 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.2 / 914.7mb/146.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.2 7.4 7.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 28 km

Center Temp : +19.2C Cloud Region Temp : -82.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 113km
- Environmental MSLP : 1005mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT1
Satellite Viewing Angle : 15.9 degrees

About 0.5 lower than the JTWC and JMA for at least a couple of hours now.
Too bad we don't have a globalhawk to fly in there....
Quoting 569. largeeyes:
Too bad we don't have a globalhawk to fly in there....
I think we have a Skyhawk (172) :)
Still no active cyclones message from the JTWC website..
parts of the Visayas region of the Philippines under Signal warning #4 now

Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #4
TYPHOON YOLANDA
5:00 PM PhST November 7 2013
===================================

Typhoon "Yolanda" has accelerated slightly while maintaining its strength as it continues to threaten eastern Visayas

At 4:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Yolanda [HAIYAN] (927 hPa) located at 9.7N 130.5E or 543 km southeast of Guiuan eastern Samar has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots with gustiness up to 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 18 knots.

Signal Warnings
==================

Signal Warning #4

Visayas region
----------------
1. Eastern Samar
2. Samar
3. Leyte
4. Southern Leyte
5. Biliran Island

Signal Warning #3

Visayas region
--------------
1. Northern Samar
2. Masbate
3. Northern Cebu
4. Bantayan island

Mindanao region
-------------------
1. Siargao Island
2. Dinagat Province

Signal Warning #2

Luzon region
--------------
1. Romblon
2. Sorsogon
3. Albay
4. Burias Island

Visayas region
--------------
1. Bohol
2. Negros Occidental
3. Negros Oriental
4. Aklan
5. Capiz
6. Antique
7. Iloilo
8. Guimaras

Mindanao region
-----------------
1. Surigao Del Norte,
2. Surigao Del Sur
3. Agusan del Norte

Signal Warning #1

Luzon region
------------
1. Camarines Norte
2. Camarines Sur
3. Catanduanes
4. Mindoro Provinces
5. Marinduque
6. Northern Palawan including Group
7. Calamian Group of Island
8. Southern Quezon

Visayas region
---------------
1. Siquijor

Mindanao region
---------------
1. Misamis Oriental
2. Agusan del Sur

Additional Information
=========================
Yolanda, after hitting Guiuan or Abuyog, Leyte, is expected to traverse the provinces of Leyte, Biliran, Northern tip of Cebu, Iloilo, Capiz, Aklan, Romblon, Semirara Island, southern part of Mindoro then Busuanga and will exit the Philippine landmass (Friday Night) towards the West Philippine Sea.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10.0-30.0 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 600 km diameter of the typhoon.

Sea travel is risky over the seaboards of northern Luzon and over the eastern seaboard of central Luzon.

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under signal #3,#2 & #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under signal #3 and #2 are alerted against storm surges which may reach up to 7 meters wave height.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
*low whistle* Every time I check back on this storm, I think it's gotten as strong as I'm ever going to see it get (as strong as I've seen any storm get in a very long time), only to be proved wrong the next time I check back.

The next few hours are extremely crucial for Haiyan's effect on the Philippines. It has moved a little north of the forecast track lately, and if there's much more northward component to the motion, its initial landfall will be on the SE coast of Samar, rather than on Leyte. This means way less surge potential, lower population density, and a little mountain range (not huge, but enough to be disruptive) to traverse before it impacts any other islands.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #30
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON HAIYAN (T1330)
18:00 PM JST November 7 2013
===================================

Sea East Of Mindanao

At 9:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Haiyan (905 hPa) located at 9.8N 130.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots with gusts of 165 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 18 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T7.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 11.7N 122.7E - 110 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Overland Visayas region
45 HRS: 13.1N 115.2E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
69 HRS: 15.3N 108.3E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Overland Vietnam
TXPQ25 KNES 070944
TCSWNP
A. 31W (HAIYAN)
B. 07/0857Z
C. 9.9N
D. 130.0E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T8.0/8.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...WMG EYE (18 C) SURROUNDED BY CDG AND EMBEDDED IN CDG
MAXES OUT THE CF NUMBER AT 7.5 AFTER A PLUS 1.0 ADJUSTMENT. THERE IS A
CLEAR CUT VERY COLD BANDING FEATURE BUT THE WARM EDGE IS TECHNICALLY TOO
COOL TO ADD FOR BF. THEREFORE DT IS HELD AT 7.5. MET AND PT ARE CLEARLY
8.0. FT IS BASED ON MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...RAMIREZ
Quoting 566. Caimito:
About 30 miles south of the predicted track ISOUTHER13 is my PWS location.


Well, at least you'll be on the southern side. Probably.

Good luck either way.
Wow.

07/0857 UTC 9.9N 130.0E T8.0/8.0 HAIYAN
Good Morning Folks!.............
165-170 knot winds.. how terrible.
Hayian has made this blog surprisingly active for this time of year at this time of the day.

Hayian at 175 mph right now I believe.
Hayian has made this blog surprisingly active for this time of year at this time of the day.

Hayian at 175 mph right now I believe.


ya. that is what NWS Tiyan gave for wind speed.
Time is running out for Haiyan to be anything but a Category 5 at landfall.

An eyewall replacement cycle might weaken it (no, it will), but not only do we not know when another one is going to transpire, it will also increase the size of the cyclone significantly and -- ultimately -- lead to greater flood potential over Vietnam in a few days.
Good morning, Folks!

Unbelievable... I don't think it gets more organized than this.
This is insane.

Quoting 586. Civicane49:
This is insane.



It actually looks better than it did six hours ago. If that's even possible.
06z GFS has a snowstorm for North Carolina to Virginia. Infact some snow may reach the North Carolina coast.
GFS brings heaviest snow to North Carolina since 2010 in 6 days
Good morning. Scary times for the poor Philippines! Although Haiyan's current track is more to the north, the latest forecast tracks seem to have shifted to the south. Odd:






James Reynolds (aka typhoonfury), who is "chasing" Haniyan, on Twitter:

James Reynolds %u200F@typhoonfury 1h
Doing recon south of Tacloban, lots of extremely vulnerable coastal communities with no signs of evacuating residents #YolandaPH #Haiyan


Location of Tacloban (very prone to storm surge)Source Wikipedia
Hello JeffMasters, I am Dave from San Jose, CA. I do like the tropical weather maps you have on your blog.
Raleigh would infact be shut down if this occurs as shown on the latest GFS. I mean 6 to 10 inches snow with snow reaching the coast!!!


Incredible perfect and dangerous!


Quoting 591. DaveFive:
Hello JeffMasters, I am Dave from San Jose, CA. I do like the tropical weather maps you have on your blog.


Dave, I see, you've got an avatar now. Nice pic!
Adjusted and Raw T-numbers have now reached the limit T8.0:
JTWC:
2013NOV07 095700 7.9 891.8 167.0 7.9 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 18.07 -84.13 EYE 27 IR 93.0 10.03 -129.56 COMBO MTSAT1 16.9

JMA:
2013NOV07 095700 7.9 866.5 4.3 167.0 7.9 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 18.07 -84.10 EYE 27 IR 95.9 10.05 -129.63 COMBO MTSAT1 16.9

Except the CIMSS, which has it about 0.5 lower.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.4 / 908.3mb/152.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.4 7.5 7.5

Very strong storm indeed.
What I would do for a reconnaissance aircraft or two.
Quoting 585. Ameister12:
Good morning, Folks!

Unbelievable... I don't think it gets more organized than this.


What was it Jeff Morrow said during one of the hurricane coverage tidbits during Katrina?

"It doesn't get any bigger than this."

I would like to reiterate his statement this morning.
GFS then developes a strong gulf low at 228 to 240 hrs. This certainly looks like El Niño on the Euro and GFS models. Looks as if the southern us and eastern us is trading hurricanes for snowstorms this year
Such beautiful imagery!

But on the other hand I feel sorry for the Philippines, as they are going to get hit by a CAT5.
It looks like a big Crispy Cream doughnut
Basically all of North Carolina and Virginia would get heavy snow in 6 days if the GFS has it's say on this
Good news from Palau and Kayangel in so far that there are no fatalities. Major damage though:

Palau assesses damage after Super Typhoon Haiyan
Updated 1 hour 47 minutes ago

Emergency crews have been sent to Kayangel, the northernmost state of Palau, to assess the damage after a super typhoon struck overnight.

Super Typhoon Haiyan pounded Palau and parts of Micronesia early Thursday morning, packing winds of up to 250 kilometres per hour.

Kayangel is located 24 kilometres away from Palau's capital, Koror, and was in the eye of the typhoon.

A helicopter pilot who flew to Kayangel on Thursday afternoon reported the island had received major damage to structures and trees, the Palau National Emergency Committee (NEC) said.

Earlier local journalist Bernadette Carreron told Radio Australia's Pacific Beat most of the people living on Kayangel had ignored a mandatory evacuation order ahead of the storm.

The NEC says all 69 residents on the island have now been accounted for and had no significant injuries.

"Another helicopter has been dispatched to provide any needed medical treatment and to supply the people with food, water and shelter until they can be evacuated," it added in a statement.

The government says assessments are ongoing, with the Bureau of Public Health reporting no fatalities from the storm.

However, it says many homes have been destroyed or damaged, especially in the northern states and the populated districts of Koror.

Koror, Babeldaob and Kayangel is without power and some areas are without water. ...


Map with initial damage reports from Palau and Kayangel
603. SLU
Easily the storm of the decade. I hope the Philippines are taking this seriously.

Mass evacuations in Philippines ahead of super typhoon
Agence France-Presse, Posted at 11/07/2013 1:19 PM | Updated as of 11/07/2013 2:54 PM

MANILA - Survivors of a deadly earthquake fled their tent shelters Thursday as mass evacuations got under way in the Philippines ahead of a super typhoon that was strengthening in the Pacific Ocean.

Authorities warned Typhoon Haiyan, with wind gusts exceeding 330 kilometres (200 miles) an hour, could cause major damage across a vast area of the central and southern Philippines when it made landfall on Friday.

"This is a very dangerous typhoon, local officials know where the vulnerable areas are and have given instructions on evacuations," state weather forecaster Glaiza Escullar told AFP.

"There are not too many mountains on its path to deflect the force of impact, making it more dangerous."

Haiyan had maximum sustained winds on Thursday morning of 278 kilometres per hour, and gusts of 333 kilometres per hour, according to the US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Centre.

The Philippines is battered by an average of 20 major storms or typhoons each year, many of them deadly, but Haiyan's wind strenth would make it the strongest for 2013.

The state weather service also warned the typhoon was continuing to intensify.

Escullar said the typhoon, which was advancing with a giant, 600-kilometre front, was expected to hit areas still recovering from a deadly 2011 storm and a 7.1-magnitude quake last month.

They include the central island of Bohol, the epicentre of the earthquake that killed more than 200 people, where a local official said at least 5,000 people were still living in tents while waiting for new homes.

"The provincial governor has ordered local disaster officials to ensure that pre-emptive evacuations are done, both for those living in tents as well as those in flood-prone areas," the official, Bohol provincial administrator Alfonso Damalerio, told AFP.

The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council also said local governments had ordered evacuations and class suspensions in low-lying and landslide-prone areas on the southern island of Mindanao.

The region includes the ports of Cagayan de Oro and Iligan, where flash floods induced by Tropical Storm Washi killed more than 1,000 people in December 2011.

However Escullar said Haiyan was likely to spare Mindanao's southeast, where Typhoon Bopha left about 2,000 people dead or missing in December last year.

Haiyan is set to hit Samar Island, about 600 kilometres southeast of Manila, around 9:00am (0100 GMT) on Friday and cross over to the South China Sea to the north of the island of Palawan late Saturday, Escullar said.

Some of the country's most popular islands for tourists, including world-famous Boracay as well as Bohol, are in the typhoon's path.

oh no storm trackers doing snow storms my character only does hurricanes. hoping hiayan slowly weakens before landfall.

Haiyan approaching the Philippines (last daylight pic).

Quoting 603. SLU:
Easily the storm of the decade. I hope the Philippines are taking this seriously.

We are, I can assure you.
Any ideas on what the central pressure currently is - and what the final official estimate will be for lowest pressure and highest 1-min sustained winds? Are they are 175 now? Just wondering how low this can go on the all-time most intense chart for the West Pacific...
Quoting 573. HadesGodWyvern:
parts of the Visayas region of the Philippines under Signal warning #4 now

Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #4
TYPHOON YOLANDA
5:00 PM PhST November 7 2013
===================================

Typhoon "Yolanda" has accelerated slightly while maintaining its strength as it continues to threaten eastern Visayas

At 4:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Yolanda [HAIYAN] (927 hPa) located at 9.7N 130.5E or 543 km southeast of Guiuan eastern Samar has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots with gustiness up to 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 18 knots.

Signal Warnings
==================

Signal Warning #4

Visayas region
----------------
1. Eastern Samar
2. Samar
3. Leyte
4. Southern Leyte
5. Biliran Island

Signal Warning #3

Visayas region
--------------
1. Northern Samar
2. Masbate
3. Northern Cebu
4. Bantayan island

Mindanao region
-------------------
1. Siargao Island
2. Dinagat Province

Signal Warning #2

Luzon region
--------------
1. Romblon
2. Sorsogon
3. Albay
4. Burias Island

Visayas region
--------------
1. Bohol
2. Negros Occidental
3. Negros Oriental
4. Aklan
5. Capiz
6. Antique
7. Iloilo
8. Guimaras

Mindanao region
-----------------
1. Surigao Del Norte,
2. Surigao Del Sur
3. Agusan del Norte

Signal Warning #1

Luzon region
------------
1. Camarines Norte
2. Camarines Sur
3. Catanduanes
4. Mindoro Provinces
5. Marinduque
6. Northern Palawan including Group
7. Calamian Group of Island
8. Southern Quezon

Visayas region
---------------
1. Siquijor

Mindanao region
---------------
1. Misamis Oriental
2. Agusan del Sur

Additional Information
=========================
Yolanda, after hitting Guiuan or Abuyog, Leyte, is expected to traverse the provinces of Leyte, Biliran, Northern tip of Cebu, Iloilo, Capiz, Aklan, Romblon, Semirara Island, southern part of Mindoro then Busuanga and will exit the Philippine landmass (Friday Night) towards the West Philippine Sea.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10.0-30.0 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 600 km diameter of the typhoon.

Sea travel is risky over the seaboards of northern Luzon and over the eastern seaboard of central Luzon.

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under signal #3,#2 & #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under signal #3 and #2 are alerted against storm surges which may reach up to 7 meters wave height.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Oh. So I am Signal 4. Not really. That would be the North-East part of Southern Leyte, around Silago.
Quoting 587. KoritheMan:


It actually looks better than it did six hours ago. If that's even possible.
Does 'Better' mean 'Worse'?
Normally calm and clear South China Sea during mid-afternoon at Nha Trang, Vietnam during late stages of TD 30:

 photo IMG_4405_zps02c03d9d.jpg

More southerly track now indicated for Haiyan toward area in Vietnam south of former DMZ is more worrisome for Vietnam, where population is heavier and recent rainfalls have been greater.
Caimito, I've read back in the blog, and you've mentioned, ISOUTHER13 would be your personal weatherstation? Here is the link to the data on WU (including a map):

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDail yHistory.asp?ID=ISOUTHER13&PWSOnAir=1

Keep us updated as long as you can. And good luck!


Leyte, Philippines
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It'[s 50 degrees with a wind chill of 45 and a high of only 63 expected. It's the first windy day in months that wasn't associated with rain.

My thoughts and prayers with the people of the Philippines with super typhoon Haiyan. Interesting that the Philippines call the storm Yolanda. I was reading that it's 174 mph now and expected to still be around 149 when it hits there tomorrow.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Crawfish Breakfast Enchiladas with and without cheese, traditional omelet with crawfish Étouffée to pour over it, whole wheat pancakes with fruit sauce, crepes filled with cream cheese and strawberries, topped with whipped cream, crepes filled with cream cheese and strawberries, topped with whipped cream, egg and sausage casserole, Canadian bacon, sausage links, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
Quoting 612. barbamz:
Caimito, I've read back in the blog, and you've mentioned, ISOUTHER13 would be your personal weatherstation? Here is the link to the data on WU (including a map):

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDail yHistory.asp?ID=ISOUTHER13&PWSOnAir=1

Keep us updated as long as you can. And good luck!
Yeah. That is my station. Was afraid to put up a link because I am new on this blog.
It is very Eerie here with anticipation, and it is so calm. My station will probably under-read the winds, because it has become partially sheltered/affected.
Quoting 615. Caimito:
Yeah. That is my station. Was afraid to put up a link because I am new on this blog.
It is very Eerie here with anticipation, and it is so calm. My station will probably under-read the winds, because it has become partially sheltered/affected.


Thank you. Now I've found your city Maasin (southwestern Leyte) :-)



Wiki:
Maasin City is the capital city of Southern Leyte, Philippines. A fourth class city with 70 barangays, it is located on the western part of the province with land area of 21,171 hectares (52,310 acres). According to the 2010 census, it has a population of 81,250.
Maasin City is the commercial and religious center of Southern Leyte and the south western part of Leyte Island. On August 10, 2000, Maasin was converted into a city. The Diocese of Maasin was founded on August 14, 1968.


Nice city! Source.
Big snowstorm for Maryland, Virginia, and North Carolina next week the GFS says
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 NOV 2013 Time : 111500 UTC
Lat : 10:08:18 N Lon : 129:11:02 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.4 / 908.3mb/152.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.4 7.5 7.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 26 km

Center Temp : +18.6C Cloud Region Temp : -84.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 113km
- Environmental MSLP : 1005mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT1

Satellite Viewing Angle : 17.3 degrees
Latest Microwave image of Haiyan.
Taken by me in Maasin two days ago. (We are overlooking Bohol)
what does the lastest euro say about snow ?
I wish I didn't have school today so I could write a blog on this monster. Hopefully all the people in the Philippines, that are going to get impacted, are prepared.
Quoting 621. Climate175:
what does the lastest euro say about snow ?


00z Euro





Quoting 624. ncstorm:


00z Euro





So DC and Baltimore gets the heaviest snow.
Quoting 621. Climate175:
what does the lastest euro say about snow ?

Gives me a solid November snowstorm, but doubt that will happen.
EDIT: That was yesterday's 00z run, here is today's.
Quoting 625. Climate175:
So DC and Baltimore gets the heaviest snow.


the blue is not indicative of snow..just cold air in place..
Tuesday Night
nt_chancesnow
Overcast with a chance of snow. Low of 30F. Winds from the NNE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 50% with accumulations up to 1 in. possible.
Wednesday
chancesnow
Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. High of 45F. Breezy. Winds from the NNE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 70%.
Wednesday Night
nt_chancesleet
Overcast with a ice pellets. Fog overnight. Low of 30F with a windchill as low as 19F. Breezy. Winds from the NNE at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation 70% with heavy snow possible.
Thursday Looks like i will get the heaviest snow wed night
Quoting 620. Caimito:
Taken by me in Maasin two days ago. (We are overlooking Bohol)


Wow, very beautiful!!!
Quoting 627. ncstorm:


the blue is not indicative of snow..just cold air in place..
you have not heard yet... DC/Baltimore maybe historic storm next week.....
Super Typhoon Haiyan
Last Updated: Thursday, November 07, 2013, 1:00:00 AM T

Wind: 175 MPH

Location: 9.3N 228.9E

Movement: WNW at 20 mph

winds up to 175 mph.
Quoting 631. hurricanes2018:
Super Typhoon Haiyan
Last Updated: Thursday, November 07, 2013, 1:00:00 AM T

Wind: 175 MPH

Location: 9.3N 228.9E

Movement: WNW at 20 mph

winds up to 175 mph.


Really speeding west now at 20mph...
I'am VERY skeptical on snow next week.What happened in 1987 was very rare.I remember having to shovel very wet snow and some tree branches even snapped because of the weight.I don't think we'll be seeing that next week.This winter in the GFS has made so many ghost blizzards for D.C.Why believe it now?.
Quoting 588. StormTrackerScott:
06z GFS has a snowstorm for North Carolina to Virginia. Infact some snow may reach the North Carolina coast.
I love big snow storm!! lets hope it come soon
Quoting 633. washingtonian115:
I'am VERY skeptical on snow next week.What happened in 1987 was very rare.I remember having to shovel very wet snow and some tree branches even snapped because of the wait.I don't think we'll be seeing that next week.This winter in the GFS has made so many ghost blizzards for D.C.Why believe it now?.
DOnt you see the consistency though ?!
Quoting 635. Torito:
What are your thoughts on the possible snowstorm next week ?
Image of the day:

Ice is seen covering everything in Lake Geneva (don't ask where that is because I don't know the place.)

This particular system that did this dropped nearly 1 foot of ice onto the ground!









Date: 2/8/12


EDIT: I think this place was in Amsterdam, but that could be false.
Latest from typhoonfury on Twitter:

James Reynolds ‏@typhoonfury 10m
Storm so severe we're making adjustments to our plan, found more solid building, nervous to say the least #YolandaPH #Haiyan #typhoon

Umm, when even the main stromchaser gets frightened ... Hope he won't regret travelling towards the eye of that storm!
Quoting 636. Climate175:
DOnt you see the consistency though ?!
The GFS is famous for consistency early on in the game only to drop it and flip flop to a non event when you get closer to the time frame.For Example...Dorian this year.Had it as a huge major plowing through the Antilies.End results in reality? it never happened.
Haiyan could very well be one of the strongest cyclones in recorded history. Satellite presentation is textbook definition of perfection. Easily in the >160kt threshold.
Quoting 637. Climate175:
What are your thoughts on the possible snowstorm next week ?



I don't think it will be as strong as the GFS predicts, but I still think we will see something out of it... Maybe 2-4 inches at the most. :)
Quoting 642. Torito:



I don't think it will be as strong as the GFS predicts, but I still think we will see something out of it... Maybe 2-4 inches at the most. :)
ya not snowmaggedon xd
Quoting 638. Torito:
Image of the day:

Ice is seen covering everything in Lake Geneva (don't ask where that is because I don't know the place.)

This particular system that did this dropped nearly 1 foot of ice onto the ground!



Torito, photo was taken February 6, 2012 in Switzerland, here, during a cold snap in that year (nothing very current).
WED NIGHT
Quoting 644. barbamz:


Torito, photo was taken February 6, 2012 in Switzerland, here, during a cold snap in that year (nothing very current).


Yea, I know. See the bottom of the post. :)

It still looks epic!
Snow in my forecast! Yay!!!

I think that the Euro model is more then likely overdoing the amount, but a good 5 inches is possible in the highest totals
Climate175, this is the forecast for where I live.




Tuesday Night

Overcast with a chance of snow. Low of 30F. Winds from the NNE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 40% with accumulations up to 2 in. possible.


Wednesday

Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. High of 43F. Winds from the NNE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 70%.


Wednesday Night

Overcast with a chance of snow. Fog overnight. Low of 27F with a windchill as low as 18F. Breezy. Winds from the NE at 15 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 70% with heavy snow possible.
Easily the worst storm in this decade.

It will be interesting to see the intensity in the 12z update. Could very well be a 190mph+ storm. It certainly looks impressive!

Fingers crossed it won't be another Bopha situation.
Quoting 650. Envoirment:
It will be interesting to see the intensity in the 12z update. Could very well be a 190mph+ storm. It certainly looks impressive!

Fingers crossed it won't be another Bopha situation.


190+ MPH will unfortunately likely be as bad as bopha..... :(
Quoting 649. Torito:
Easily the worst storm in this decade.



It's looking...better.... if that's possible.

Haiyan: Eerie!

barbamz - "Live streaming webcam with audio in Boracay / Philippines, a tourist destination right in the path of Haiyan. Big party is going on, according to the noise ;)"

That is too eerily reminiscent of what happened during Camille in Mississippi in 1969. I had to save the link with the sound turned off - I'm almost afraid to turn it back on tomorrow morning (I'm GMT plus 7) when I wake up.
CI 7.9, 167 kts







Link
Quoting 654. LesBonsTemps:
"Live streaming webcam with audio in Boracay / Philippines, a tourist destination right in the path of Haiyan. Big party is going on, according to the noise ;)"

That is too eerily reminiscent of what happened during Camille in Mississippi in 1969. I had to save the link with the sound turned off - I'm almost afraid to turn it back on tomorrow morning (I'm GMT plus 7) when I wake up.


On this webcam is party all the time; I've already watched it during some typhoons earlier. But I doubt there will be a party tomorrow.

BTW: Here is another livestreaming webcam with audio, overlooking the bay of Boracay (Bolabog), without any party noise. At present nothing to see, as it's night (as you know in Vietnam, lol).


Location of Boracay

Quoting 638. Torito:
Image of the day:

Ice is seen covering everything in Lake Geneva (don't ask where that is because I don't know the place.)

This particular system that did this dropped nearly 1 foot of ice onto the ground!









Date: 2/8/12


EDIT: I think this place was in Amsterdam, but that could be false.


Middle photo definitely is from Amsterdam - confirmed by a current resident :)
Holy shit.

Sorry for the language, but that's just about the only thing to accurately describe Haiyan. It has reached the top of the Dvorak technique scale.

07/0857 UTC 9.9N 130.0E T8.0/8.0 HAIYAN -- West Pacific

Quoting 638. Torito:
Image of the day:

Ice is seen covering everything in Lake Geneva (don't ask where that is because I don't know the place.)

This particular system that did this dropped nearly 1 foot of ice onto the ground!









Date: 2/8/12


EDIT: I think this place was in Amsterdam, but that could be false.
Lake Geneva? Wouldn't be that Geneva, Switzerland?
Just want to say that it is so nice to see bloggers posting from the Phillipines and from Europe. We welcome the diversity and appreciate that you share weather evens from your neck of the woods.

Back to lurking. Good luck to the folks facing Haiyan.

"EVENTS" sorry - darn this keyboard...
661. beell
Very efficient upper level exhaust system in place to the north of Haiyan. The storm is situated just south of a 100 knot zonal jet. In the jet entrance region. A bit unusual.


11/07 06Z GFS 200 mb winds-Valid 12Z
Quoting 659. MoltenIce:
Lake Geneva? Wouldn't be that Geneva, Switzerland?


The first photo is from Lake Geneva in Switzerland, the second one is from the inner canal circle here in beautiful Amsterdam, The Netherlands... Not sure where the third one is from, could be either :)
Meanwhile two twitter accounts that anyone interested in Haiyan should follow:

twitter.com/typhoonfury
twitter.com/extremestorms

Unfortunately, both James and Jim have been posting worrying stuff like people sheltering in churches just 200 meters from the water, or the lack of apparent evacuations in many low-lying coastal communities in the Leyte Gulf :/ Both of them seem genuinely worried about themselves and everyone else in the region, and you don't see that too often with people who essentially chase typhoons...
Quoting 660. NEFLWATCHING:
Just want to say that it is so nice to see bloggers posting from the Phillipines and from Europe. We welcome the diversity and appreciate that you share weather evens from your neck of the woods.

Back to lurking. Good luck to the folks facing Haiyan.

"EVENTS" sorry - darn this keyboard...
Irishman living here am I. My PWS
Haiyan's near-analogue, Bopha in 2012.


According to Wikipedia on rapid deepening, we have seen 5 instances of explosive intensification in the Western Pacific this year.
666. SLU
The only thing missing to make this the "prefect" hurricane is for it to be in the middle of the ocean far away from land.

I really hope they are prepared for this one.

Quoting 663. skycycle:
Meanwhile two twitter accounts that anyone interested in Haiyan should follow:

twitter.com/typhoonfury
twitter.com/extremestorms

Unfortunately, both James and Jim have been posting worrying stuff like people sheltering in churches just 200 meters from the water, or the lack of apparent evacuations in many low-lying coastal communities in the Leyte Gulf :/ Both of them seem genuinely worried about themselves and everyone else in the region, and you don't see that too often with people who essentially chase typhoons...


Both seem to be in Tacloban right now:



Edit:

James Reynolds %u200F@typhoonfury 10m
JMA warning #YolandaPH / #Haiyan at 125kts (10 min) gusts 175kts 895hPa, staggering strength. On track to hit Tacloban.
Quoting 666. SLU:
The only thing missing to make this the "prefect" hurricane is for it to be in the middle of the ocean far away from land.

I really hope they are prepared for this one.



That is one scary beast! IMO the only way to prepare for something like Haiyan is to GET OUT
MODIS view of Haiyan.


JMA has Haiyan at 895 mbar now and this is from satellite estimates.
Quoting 663. skycycle:
Meanwhile two twitter accounts that anyone interested in Haiyan should follow:

twitter.com/typhoonfury
twitter.com/extremestorms

Unfortunately, both James and Jim have been posting worrying stuff like people sheltering in churches just 200 meters from the water, or the lack of apparent evacuations in many low-lying coastal communities in the Leyte Gulf :/ Both of them seem genuinely worried about themselves and everyone else in the region, and you don't see that too often with people who essentially chase typhoons...


Good Morning All..

000

wtpn33 pgtw 070900
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/ tropical cyclone warning//
rmks/
remarks:
070900z position near 9.6n 130.2e.
Super typhoon 31w (Haiyan), located approximately 673 nm
east-southeast of Manila, Philippines, has tracked west-
northwestward at 18 knots over the past six hours.
Maximum significant wave height at 070600z is 46 feet.
Next warnings at 071500z, 072100z, 080300z and 080900z.
//

Nnnn

Folks there are looking at a overwhelming storm surge..
Super Typhoon Haiyan is deadly in every sense of the word.. :(
Quoting 658. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Sorry for the language, but that's just about the only thing to accurately describe Haiyan. It has reached the top of the Dvorak technique scale.

07/0857 UTC 9.9N 130.0E T8.0/8.0 HAIYAN -- West Pacific



Truly Amazing. You are right not too many words can describe a storm like this.

Has it been said or has anyone read about the mysterious/phantom "Halo" that only seemed to appear this year on IR. Very curious as to what or "WHOM" (j/k) is causing that.
Quoting 664. Caimito:
Irishman living here am I. My PWS


Wow, from Ireland to the Philippines! While waiting for Haiyan you may have a look into the great blog from WatchinTheSky with a lot of recent pics from your homeland.
Quoting 669. MoltenIce:
MODIS view of Haiyan.


JMA has Haiyan at 895 mbar now and this is from satellite estimates.


What does the JTWC have the storm at?
674. ARiot
Talked to our family in the RP last night.

They're up in the mountains of Luzon.

Only concern is saturation / mudslides / rural roads closed for a week or so. (Sadly that's normal for them)

There's not much you can do to get out of the way on Leyte. Folks aren't very mobile, most transportation is shared-private, like Jeepneys, taxi's and in the more urban areas, modern bus lines.

I hope they mobilized enough to move folks back.

Racing towards the Philippines.
Our blogger Caimito on Leyte should experience the outer bands already.
To post 658

It's okay. This storm is just like Wilma 2005. It is a bomb.


Typhoon 31W HAIYAN


UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 NOV 2013 Time : 123000 UTC
Lat : 10:14:22 N Lon : 128:35:52 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.5 / 904.5mb/155.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.5 7.5 7.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 27 km

Center Temp : +18.0C Cloud Region Temp : -84.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 118km
- Environmental MSLP : 1005mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT1
Satellite Viewing Angle : 17.9 degrees


ADT has reached T8.0 from two agencies.
JTWC
2013NOV07 123000 8.0 887.7 170.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 17.96 -84.64 EYE 27 IR 101. 10.24 -128.60 COMBO MTSAT1 17.9

JMA
2013NOV07 123000 8.0 862.2 4.2 170.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 17.96 -84.64 EYE 27 IR 103. 10.28 -128.64 COMBO MTSAT1 17.9
Foul Language is a direct violation of the Community Standard rule here as well as quoting it.

A lot of Children come here to learn about the weather.

Modify and Grow up.

Rules of The Road

5. Foul or obscene language or content of any kind is not allowed.

Quoting 673. FunnelVortex:


What does the JTWC have the storm at?
JTWC doesn't do pressure estimates.

JMA is the official RSMC for the WPac.

I'm not sure if it's my browser cache at fault but the last JTWC advisory is from 0900 UTC.
Wow. Look at North Carolina & Virginia!

Quoting 658. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Holy shit.

Sorry for the language, but that's just about the only thing to accurately describe Haiyan. It has reached the top of the Dvorak technique scale.

07/0857 UTC 9.9N 130.0E T8.0/8.0 HAIYAN -- West Pacific



You can express yourself without this type of language. Time to grow up and put up great post as you normally do.
I hope AussieStorms family is ok. That is one nasty looking storm.
Next JTWC advisory would be on 1500Z. I expect them to bump up the wind speeds to 190 mph or 305 kph.
687. NCstu
Quoting 681. StormTrackerScott:
Wow. Look at North Carolina & Virginia!



Hmmm... I'm in North Carolina right now and I must say that your graphic is a little suspect
This is one strong eyewall.

Gulf low at 252hrs NOT Tropical!

Quoting 686. FunnelVortex:
The scary thing is, Haiyan is forecasted to trek across the Philippines, weaken to a Category 4 and enter the South China Sea with that intensity, putting Vietnam at risk from a strong typhoon.
Does anyone else think we could be looking at one of the strongest storms ever?
Quoting 672. barbamz:


Wow, from Ireland to the Philippines! While waiting for Haiyan you may have a look into the great blog from WatchinTheSky with a lot of recent pics from your homeland.
Now that was refreshing.
Quoting 691. sdswwwe:
Does anyone else think we could be looking at one of the strongest storms ever?
Quite possible. Since JMA managed to extrapolate 895 mbar of pressure solely from satellite data, who knows what the actual pressure is.

I could assume recon went in but I'm not sure where to acquire such data. I know they're public however.
Quoting 691. sdswwwe:
Does anyone else think we could be looking at one of the strongest storms ever?


Yes. I just hope it at least makes landfall during daylight, nightime landfalls are generally more dangerous.

Screenshot from WU-Sat-Map.
Official readings now suggest pressure is down to at least 895mb (from satellite readings), 10-minute winds are 145mph/125kts, while 1-minute sustained winds are 190mph/165kts - which would equal the winds measured in Typhoon Tip!

A shame that there is no recon in the West Pacific, I would say this is definitely lower in pressure than 895, probably 10mb less or so! Incredible wind speeds mean that the portion of the coast where the eye makes landfall will be obliterated :/

We might be looking at not only one of the strongest storms ever, but also a potential MEGA disaster for the Philippines
Apart from extreme SE FL, dry weather is taking over in the south the next 7 days.



Looks pretty normal for the south 8-14 days out. Temps look like they'll be above normal.



698. PTXer
Quoting 683. StormTrackerScott:


You can express yourself without this type of language. Time to grow up and put up great post as you normally do.

Nor was there any reason for you to fully quote him for all of us to see again.
Quoting 675. barbamz:

Racing towards the Philippines.
Our blogger Caimito on Leyte should experience the outer bands already.
No winds yet. Only 30mm of rain.
Can see lots of lightning north of here.

Was down on the beach 10 minutes ago. The wave don't look normal. High tide is at 1am (3.5 hours from now) @ about 1.75M.
Quoting 699. Caimito:
No winds yet. Only 30mm of rain.
Can see lots of lightning north of here.

Was down on the beach 10 minutes ago. The wave don't look normal. High tide is at 1am (3.5 hours from now) @ about 1.75M.
There does, indeed, seem to be quite a bit of lightning with this one, both in the NW quadrant and around the eye:

lightning
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


You can express yourself without this type of language. Time to grow up and put up great post as you normally do.


From the guy who called Hydrus a 'Jackwagon' LOL. How's El Nino today bubba?
Quoting 683. StormTrackerScott:


You can express yourself without this type of language. Time to grow up and put up great post as you normally do.


And yet, you keep it going with the full quote.

Why give advice all the while going against that same advice in the meadst of preaching it. I would think common sense would prevail among most. Maybe im just dillusional.

This is in the same league as Megi, Monica, and Wilma right now.


Quoting 665. MoltenIce:
Haiyan's near-analogue, Bopha in 2012.


According to Wikipedia on rapid deepening, we have seen 5 instances of explosive intensification in the Western Pacific this year.


Haiyan is stronger in winds and has a lower pressure than Bopha does. This is a worse situation.
704. NCstu
The JMA has windspeeds at 125kt right now. JTWC says 150. What accounts for the difference?
Quoting 700. Neapolitan:
There does, indeed, seem to be quite a bit of lightning with this one, both in the NW quadrant and around the eye:

lightning
Is lightning a normal occurrence for a tropical cyclone?
Quoting 704. NCstu:
The JMA has windspeeds at 125kt right now. JTWC says 150. What accounts for the difference?

The main difference is that while JMA uses 10-minute sustained winds, the JTWC uses 1-min winds.
Also, lay off TWAx13, there was plenty of foul language being thrown around during Wilma. A significant amount of people are about to be hit by an impossibly strong super typhoon, I challenge you guys to find better words to describe the situation.

Let's get back on topic instead of giggling at a swear word.
Quoting 704. NCstu:
The JMA has windspeeds at 125kt right now. JTWC says 150. What accounts for the difference?

JMA is 10-min, JTWC is 1-min.

The JTWC best track is up to 165 kt (190 mph).
Quoting 705. MoltenIce:
Is lightning a normal occurrence for a tropical cyclone?


It is definitely not, especially in the eyewall.
Quoting 709. CybrTeddy:


It is definitely not, especially in the eyewall.
Thank you!


Would really like to see it in VIS. However, my thoughts are with the people in the Philippines.
165kt sustained winds is comparable to being in the Tuscaloosa tornado for nearly a half an hour, just so you guys can understand the magnitude of the situation the people of the Philippines are facing. Haiyan doesn't look like it wants to weaken either as the CDO continues to become more symmetrical and the eye continues to clear out, so I think a 170-175kt peak isn't out of the question before landfall.

I don't think I've ever given a forecast of a 200mph peak before.
It is incredible that this system still is strengthening.....


Haiyan reaching even warmer waters before landfall.
Gusts to 200 kts!
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 10.2N 129.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 165 KT, GUSTS 200 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2N 129.1E
Quoting 715. Bobbyweather:
Gusts to 200 kts!
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 10.2N 129.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 165 KT, GUSTS 200 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2N 129.1E
That's the highest I've ever seen.
717. NCstu
Quoting 715. Bobbyweather:
Gusts to 200 kts!
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 10.2N 129.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 165 KT, GUSTS 200 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2N 129.1E


I know with Tip there were a lot of recons. How credible are these numbers by comparison?
Quoting 717. NCstu:


I know with Tip there were a lot of recons. How credible are these numbers by comparison?
Satellite estimates? I would assume not as good as actual recon.
Quoting 711. CybrTeddy:
165kt sustained winds is comparable to being in the Tuscaloosa tornado for nearly a half an hour, just so you guys can understand the magnitude of the situation the people of the Philippines are facing. Haiyan doesn't look like it wants to weaken either as the CDO continues to become more symmetrical and the eye continues to clear out, so I think a 170-175kt peak isn't out of the question before landfall.

I don't think I've ever given a forecast of a 200mph peak before.
We are on the verge of witnessing one of the strongest storms to ever make landfall since record keeping began. This is Mother Nature at her Finest. No hype here. ALl we can do is hope and pray for the best.
Quoting 717. NCstu:


I know with Tip there were a lot of recons. How credible are these numbers by comparison?

Well, not that credible compared to Tip, as the numbers are estimations.
Cloud tops associated with Haiyan are still cooling down.

Incredible.
Quoting 707. CybrTeddy:
Also, lay off TWAx13, there was plenty of foul language being thrown around during Wilma. A significant amount of people are about to be hit by an impossibly strong super typhoon, I challenge you guys to find better words to describe the situation.

Let's get back on topic instead of giggling at a swear word.


I got ban for less for not following the "rules of the road"..it should apply to everyone..
Philippine Satellite Loop.

Link
Quoting 703. CybrTeddy:
This is in the same league as Megi, Monica, and Wilma right now.




Haiyan is stronger in winds and has a lower pressure than Bopha does. This is a worse situation.

Imagine this moving through the Bahamas towards FL. (Can you imagine the media!?!) That would be unbelievable. A true worst case scenario for anyone.
Quoting 724. Torito:
Philippine Satellite Loop.

Link


Just frightening!!!
Quoting 720. GTstormChaserCaleb:
We are on the verge of witnessing one of the strongest storms to ever make landfall since record keeping began. This is Mother Nature at her Finest. No hype here. ALl we can do is hope and pray for the best.
I wish all the best for the people in the Philippines.
Let's not do the double standard people....I I have to face concequences for cursing then so should the next guy..I don't care what situation is...

Anywho I'm sure the Phillippines have been hit with cyclones like this in the past.It won't be the first and it won't be the last.
Quoting 728. washingtonian115:
Let's not do the double standard people....I I have to face concequences for cursing then so should the next guy..I don't care what situation is...

Anywho I'm sure the Phillippines have been hit with cyclones like this in the past.It won't be the first and it won't be the last.
Typhoon Zeb in 1998 comes to mind.

But it made landfall in a less-populated part of Luzon.
Super typhoon Haiyan, likely the strongest storm to form on the planet this year, is heading toward a Friday morning landfall in the Philippines, posing an extremely serious threat to the central part of the archipelago.

The storm is near its theoretical maximum strength, with sustained winds of 290 kph, and is not expected to weaken significantly, due to very warm water temperatures along its path, reports the Washington Post.

Haiyan, known as Yolanda in the Philippines, is likely to push a storm surge of at least two or three meters along the eastern coast of southern Luzon and Samar islands, and will impact the area that was ravaged by the 7.1 magnitude earthquake in mid-October.
Quoting 711. CybrTeddy:
165kt sustained winds is comparable to being in the Tuscaloosa tornado for nearly a half an hour, just so you guys can understand the magnitude of the situation the people of the Philippines are facing. Haiyan doesn't look like it wants to weaken either as the CDO continues to become more symmetrical and the eye continues to clear out, so I think a 170-175kt peak isn't out of the question before landfall.

I don't think I've ever given a forecast of a 200mph peak before.

Megi also really slowed down before landfall when it weakened. Same with Phailin
Can it prove this 'maximum strength theory' wrong? I guess we will find out.

733. NCstu
I read on Wikipedia that the deadliest storm on record (for the Philippine) was a tropical storm with 45 mph winds. I'm not sure what to make of that given that they get hit by like 6 named storms every year.
TPN33 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/ TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 10.2N 129.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 165 KT, GUSTS 200 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2N 129.1E
07/0857 UTC 9.9N 130.0E T8.0/8.0 HAIYAN -- West Pacific
Quoting 735. Tazmanian:
07/0857 UTC 9.9N 130.0E T8.0/8.0 HAIYAN -- West Pacific


The rare #8 T-Number.
I think this is one of the only times the US has dealt with an approaching storm with such a stead, solid intensity.

Haiyan is likely one of the strongest storms ever, and is likely to have winds close to 200 mph. This is a very dangerous situation for the people in the path. Prayers for those people.

With respect to local weather, a trough over the NW Caribbean is interacting with a cold front approaching the GOMEX to produce scattered strong thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean and SE GOMEX. No development expected, but heavy rains and strong winds possible in thunderstorms feeding off high octane waters will be likely, which is a typical situation when there is an approaching front.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-rb.h tmlLink
Quoting NCstu:
I read on Wikipedia that the deadliest storm on record (for the Philippine) was a tropical storm with 45 mph winds. I'm not sure what to make of that given that they get hit by like 6 named storms every year.

Water kills more people than wind. By a long way.
Heavy rainfall in mountains is really dangerous.


190MPH SUSTAINED

230MPH GUSTS
Can you imagine the calmness in that eye?
Quoting opal92nwf:
Can you imagine the calmness in that eye?

The winds would likely be calm.
But the sea conditions would be INCREDIBLE.
Just posting one the latest loop clips. Completely speechless looking at the structure, strength and trajectory:


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/31W/imagery/ft0-lalo.jpg
Quoting 728. washingtonian115:
Let's not do the double standard people....I I have to face concequences for cursing then so should the next guy..I don't care what situation is...

Anywho I'm sure the Phillippines have been hit with cyclones like this in the past.It won't be the first and it won't be the last.


Very true and hopefully the constant media coverage here the last 3 days, all the way to a presidential broadcast earlier this evening, will have increased awareness and reduced the potential casualties, although the info posted earlier about people sheltering close to the coast has me worried.

I have a fairly sick feeling about this one and am honestly expecting horrific news over the next 24 hours. I hope I am wrong.
Pressures could become the lowest ever recorded in a tropical system!

Their are plenty of non cursing words to describe this situation..

cataclysm
catastrophe.
2013NOV07 T8.0 P 862.2


I think that is the lowest pressure ever recorded right now...
Quoting washingtonian115:
Their are plenty of non cursing words to describe this situation..

cataclysm
catastrophe.

Hypocrites at their finest.

Move on>>>>>>>>>>>>
200kt gusts.

I.. wow.

I'm totally speechless.
31W/MT/H/C5


IT BROKE TIP'S RECORDS! Here is tip's record.

Highest winds 10-minute sustained:
260 km/h (160 mph)

1-minute sustained:
305 km/h (190 mph)

Lowest pressure 870 mbar (hPa); 25.69 inHg
Quoting NCstu:
I read on Wikipedia that the deadliest storm on record (for the Philippine) was a tropical storm with 45 mph winds. I'm not sure what to make of that given that they get hit by like 6 named storms every year.



You'd be surprised how quickly places flood even in a short thunderstorm, and orographic lift in a cyclone can be deadly. We saw it this year in Taiwan.
Interesting to note with the current structure of Haiyan that the Western quadrant, headed inland, has the strongest outer banding as opposed to what we normally see (the NE quadrant)............... The core of the storm regardless is remarkable.
Quoting 749. pottery:

Move on>>>>>>>>>>>>
Yeah you can delete that post.You don't quote me any other time.Moving on>>>>>>>
Quoting CybrTeddy:
200kt gusts.

I.. wow.

I'm totally speechless.

The rain-drops would behave like a high-pressure washer.
It will take the paint from the walls......
Quoting 748. Torito:
2013NOV07 T8.0 P 862.2


I think that is the lowest pressure ever recorded right now...


862.2mb, that's insane.
Back in the states, frost advisories in TX



190mph Cane with 230mph gust gonna BLOW some things away over there
Quoting Torito:
IT BROKE TIP'S RECORDS! Here is tip's record.

Highest winds 10-minute sustained:
260 km/h (160 mph)

1-minute sustained:
305 km/h (190 mph)

Lowest pressure 870 mbar (hPa); 25.69 inHg


Yep. WOW. I am so nervous right now.

Cebu Radar
Quoting 756. pottery:

The rain-drops would behave like a high-pressure washer.
It will take the paint from the walls......


Many of the people there live at the base in mountains, it'll act as a wind accelerator.
Quoting 757. CybrTeddy:


862.2mb, that's insane.


Nothing like this has ever been recorded. It smashed Tip's pressure and is still heading lower!
Witnessing history here I believe, to see the eye pass thru those islands tomm, is gonna be a sight to behold from satellite
Quoting 759. AussieStorm:


You mean it has equalled STY Tip's record.


Same wind speed, LOWER pressure. I would consider haiyan to be stronger because of that.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Many of the people there live at the base in mountains, it'll act as a wind accelerator.

Incredible.
How much energy are we looking at here?
Quoting 764. pottery:

Incredible.
How much energy are we looking at here?


It's ACE is probably more than the whole Atlantic season ACE
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:

Tacloban City will get the strongest winds, high surge, up to 12'' rain per hour.
there is not going too be nothing lift in the Philippines when this is over
Quoting 764. pottery:

Incredible.
How much energy are we looking at here?


I don't even know, but probably something absolutely staggering.
Quoting 764. pottery:

Incredible.
How much energy are we looking at here?


I dont know, I can't find the ACE numbers. :/

EDIT: found it;


16.015

AND this data is a day old.... :/
Godspeed to the folks in the path of this. That could be an extremely intense hot tower to the east of the eye...Which may mean some intensification..if that is even possible at its current strength.
Quoting 772. hydrus:
Godspeed to the folks in the path of this. That could be an extremely intense hot tower to the east of the eye...Which may mean some intensification..if that is even possible at its current strength.

Yeah I've been wondering what that is
774. keenu
WOW..SUSTAINED WIND 190 MPH, GUSTS 230 MPH !! I've never seen something like this monstrum !
When lightning is surrounding the entire eyewall, you know something is going on, powerhouse machine in full throttle.

Tweet from Tacloban

Jim Edds ‏@ExtremeStorms 5m
“@senorpepr: @ExtremeStorms 190 mph or 305 km/h” ok, there is no safe place in 190 mph wind anywhere I went today. #YolandaPH

Follow on Twitter (you can do that without being a member of Twitter):

Jim Edds (ExtremeWeather)

James Reynolds (typhoonfury)

Both are in Tacloban.
862 mbar?

That can't be...we need recon now!

JMA still has it at 895 mbar and I suggest sticking to that as they are the official warning centre for the Wpac.

Also, dead centre.
Still has a ways till the islands, it's bound to weaken by the time it gets there

Beautiful and scary at the same time!!!Woww


the philippines are in front of a catastrophe..
780. NCstu
Quoting 777. MoltenIce:
862 mbar?

That can't be...we need recon now!

JMA still has it at 895 mbar and I suggest sticking to that as they are the official warning centre for the Wpac.


will there be recon? It was the US Navy with Tip right?
Also just realized it's moving 25mph, that's unheard of to be that strong and moving that fast. Add 25mph wind to the NE quadrant of the eyewall with the gusts.
Quoting 777. MoltenIce:
862 mbar?

That can't be...we need recon now!

JMA still has it at 895 mbar and I suggest sticking to that as they are the official warning centre for the Wpac.


Scroll down to the bottom of this page if you don't believe me. :P

Link
Quoting 780. NCstu:


will there be recon? It was the US Navy with Tip right?
USAF.

Recon? Now? Unlikely.

Unless the Hurricane Hunters are in a trip to Guam, no recon at all.
not ever storm you see this

07/0857 UTC 9.9N 130.0E T8.0/8.0 HAIYAN -- West Pacific
Somewhere over a small area of the ocean there will be a 250mph gust, but we'll never confirm it or know about it.
Quoting 785. RitaEvac:
Somewhere over a small area of the ocean there will be a 250mph gust, but we'll never confirm it or know about it.
Maybe the waves near the centre are at 100+ feet or so.

Unsettling thought.
I would be very scared for any recon flying into that monster right now. I'm somehow glad there isn't any available, as far as I know.
Quoting 784. Tazmanian:
not ever storm you see this

07/0857 UTC 9.9N 130.0E T8.0/8.0 HAIYAN -- West Pacific


Yes, Taz. This is the strongest typhoon in history, if these data numbers turn out to be accurate.

:/
few hours ago.. PAGASA released an intermediate bulletin to raise the sustained winds to 120 knots.

Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #4-A
TYPHOON YOLANDA
8:00 PM PhST November 7 2013
===================================

Typhoon "YOLANDA" has accelerated and intensified slightly as it continues to threaten eastern Visayas

At 7:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Yolanda [HAIYAN] (hPa) located at 9.9N 129.7E or 453 km southeast of Guiuan, eastern Samar has 10 minute sustained winds of 120 knots with gustiness up to 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 20 knots.

Signal Warnings
==================

Signal Warning #4

Visayas region
----------------
1. Eastern Samar
2. Samar
3. Leyte
4. Southern Leyte
5. Biliran province
6. extreme northern Cebu
7. Bantayan island
8. Capiz
9. Aklan
10. northern Antique

Signal Warning #3

Luzon region
-------------
1. Masbate
2. Ticao Island
3. Sorsogon
4. Romblon
5. Calamian Group of Island

Visayas region
--------------
1. Northern Samar
2. rest of Antique
3. Iloilo
4. Guimaras
5. northern Negros Occidental
6. northern Negros Oriental
7. northern Cebu including Cebu City
8. Bohol Northern Samar

Mindanao region
-------------------
1. Siargao Island
2. Dinagat Province

Signal Warning #2

Luzon region
--------------
1. Mindoro Provinces
2. Marinduque
3. Albay
4. extreme northern Palawan
5. Burias island

Visayas region
--------------
1. rest of Negros Occidental
2. rest of Negros Oriental
3. Siquijor
4. Rest of Cebu

Mindanao region
-----------------
1. Camiguin
2. Surigao Del Norte
3. Surigao Del Sur
4. Agusan Del Norte

Signal Warning #1

Luzon region
------------
1. Metro Manila
2. Camarines Norte
3. Camarines Sur
4. Catanduanes
5. southern Quezon
6. Laguna
7. Rizal
8. Cavite
9. Batangas
10. Lubang Island
11. Rest of Northern Palawan
12. Puerto Princesa

Mindanao region
---------------
1. Misamis Oriental
2. Agusan del Sur

Additional Information
=========================
Yolanda, after hitting Guiuan or Abuyog, Leyte, is expected to traverse the provinces of Biliran, the Northern tip of Cebu, Iloilo, Capiz, Aklan, Romblon, Semirara Island, the southern part of Mindoro then Busuanga and will exit the Philippine landmass (on Saturday early morning) towards the west Philippine Sea.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10.0-30.0 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 600 km diameter of the typhoon.

Sea travel is risky over the seaboards of northern Luzon and over the eastern seaboard of central Luzon.

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under signal #4, #3, #2 & #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under signal #3 and #2 are alerted against storm surges which may reach up to 7-meter wave height.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Still has a ways till the islands, it's bound to weaken by the time it gets there


I'm not sure about that.
Lightening tends to demonstrate strong updrafts. Normal in tropical systems yes, but in this case there is a vast area of increasing energy going on.
Quoting 752. Torito:
IT BROKE TIP'S RECORDS! Here is tip's record.

Highest winds 10-minute sustained:
260 km/h (160 mph)

1-minute sustained:
305 km/h (190 mph)

Lowest pressure 870 mbar (hPa); 25.69 inHg


A category 6?????? wow!!!
Quoting 787. barbamz:
I would be very scared for any recon flying into that monster right now. I'm somehow glad there isn't any available, as far as I know.
I would be thrilled!

You know, Hurricane Hunters have a near impeccable safety record.

Tip's reading is verified because HH flew 50 sorties into the system. As for Haiyan...
Damn that's a powerful storm, really hope people in the Philippines are prepared for the incredibly strong winds, very heavy rain, and storm surge.
Quoting 791. stormchaser19:


A category 6?????? wow!!!


If there was a Cat 6, this would probably be one.
The 862mb pressure is unconfirmed until one of the forecasting agencies confirm it. Tip's record was only verified due to recon, Haiyan needs a recon for confirmation of that intensity.
Quoting 795. CybrTeddy:
The 862mb pressure is unconfirmed until one of the forecasting agencies confirm it. Tip's record was only verified due to recon, Haiyan needs a recon for confirmation of that intensity.

^^ This.
797. NCstu
Wish we could scramble some NASA drones and get some real data. I'm reluctant to proclaim that this storm is the strongest with nothing but satellite estimates.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
The 862mb pressure is unconfirmed until one of the forecasting agencies confirm it. Tip's record was only verified due to recon, Haiyan needs a recon for confirmation of that intensity.

Is Recon a possibility?
Quoting 798. pottery:

Is Recon a possibility?


If there is no recon, we would probably have to go with that pressure reading...
Quoting 799. Torito:


If there is no recon, we would probably have to go with that pressure reading...
Or JMA's 895 mbar.

Which is still the lowest verified (albeit still via satellite estimates) pressure.
Quoting NCstu:
Wish we could scramble some NASA drones and get some real data. I'm reluctant to proclaim that this storm is the strongest with nothing but satellite estimates.

You would need an aircraft with an airspeed of close to 300 mph to even attempt an eyewall penetration with this one.
Quoting 797. NCstu:
Wish we could scramble some NASA drones and get some real data. I'm reluctant to proclaim that this storm is the strongest with nothing but satellite estimates.


Just my thought: To sacrifice a drone would be the right idea.
Ouch in phillippines....it's still looks to be strenghtening



but it might snow in the Mid atlantic soon :D
I'm not seeing weakening anytime soon from eyewall replacement. Structure is flawless.

JTWC ADT

2013NOV07 123000 8.0 887.7 170.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 17.96 -84.64 EYE 27 IR 101. 10.24 -128.60

890 hPa

The only ADT that about 3 agency agree with this pressure
Quoting 730. Torito:
Super typhoon Haiyan, likely the strongest storm to form on the planet this year, is heading toward a Friday morning landfall in the Philippines, posing an extremely serious threat to the central part of the archipelago.

The storm is near its theoretical maximum strength, with sustained winds of 290 kph, and is not expected to weaken significantly, due to very warm water temperatures along its path, reports the Washington Post.

Haiyan, known as Yolanda in the Philippines, is likely to push a storm surge of at least two or three meters along the eastern coast of southern Luzon and Samar islands, and will impact the area that was ravaged by the 7.1 magnitude earthquake in mid-October.
Wunderground map had it at 306 km/hr in last update, with guests of 370 km/hr in their last update
Hardly a breeze here yet
Haiyan is a perfect example of what is possible with the right conditions. Right now my prayers are for the people in the path of this vicious monster. This a disaster of the highest order about to take place. History happening now.
Quoting 806. Caimito:
Wunderground map had it at 306 km/hr in last update, with guests of 370 km/hr in their last update
Hardly a breeze here yet



Any rain yet? By the way, try to get some photos of this! We all would love to see it!
Dvorak has this looking stronger every minute..
The US Navy/Air Force (JTWC) and the JMA should come together and restart aerial recons in the WPac.

Info gathered on site is valuable as proved by the experiences of the Hurricane Hunters in the Atlantic and EPac.

It's frightening to see that it's still strengthening.
Ok for my wx page i need the official info

Is this really 190mb / 862mb?

And is it officially the strongest storm ever?
(Based on official estimates, not opinions)
Quoting 806. Caimito:
Wunderground map had it at 306 km/hr in last update, with guests of 370 km/hr in their last update
Hardly a breeze here yet


Caimito, I hope your hotel is a strong building? I'm really worried for you!
G' morning from Central OK,

Back in Business. Repairs complete and everything is a-ok.

Well, everything is quiet here, a bit on the chilly side.

The only good thing regarding Yolanda (Haiyan) is the speed that it is moving. Hopefully this keeps up, as it is the only thing residents of the Philippines have going for them. Thoughts and prayers for those that will be experiencing the fury of the storm.

Good news, relatively speaking, from Palau where all residents have been accounted for on the island which the eye passed over.

Link

Hope all has been good, and hope all have a fantastic day. Count your blessings today. But for the grace of weather . . .
Quoting 806. Caimito:
Wunderground map had it at 306 km/hr in last update, with guests of 370 km/hr in their last update
Hardly a breeze here yet


I see your PWS is logged at 10ft elevation, hope you will be above that height significantly over the next 24 hours or so.

Take care (and stay away from the beach).
Quoting 1900hurricane:
I'm not seeing weakening anytime soon from eyewall replacement. Structure is flawless.


Reminds me of the Eye of Sauron.......
Boracay webcam via earthcam.com

They are still partying away. Crazy.
817. NCstu
Quoting 809. hydrus:
Dvorak has this looking stronger every minute..


what is making it so asymmetrical?
Quoting 811. GeorgiaStormz:
Ok for my wx page i need the official info

Is this really 190mb / 862mb?

And is it officially the strongest storm ever?
(Based on official estimates, not opinions)
Pressure is sketchy.

3 agencies (including the JTWC) has it at 890 mbar.
Storms like this are once a decade.



It's truly perfect. Amazing really.
Quoting 811. GeorgiaStormz:
Ok for my wx page i need the official info

Is this really 190mb / 862mb?

And is it officially the strongest storm ever?
(Based on official estimates, not opinions)


Dvorak page says 862 MB.....

That is lower than tip's 870 MB pressure..

Wind speeds are the same as tip's.

Here is a data page if you need it.

Link
WOW! This is incredible, as perfectly symmetrical as you can get.

Quoting 820. Torito:


Dvorak page says 862 MB.....

That is lower than tip's 870 MB pressure..

Wind speeds are the same as tip's.

Here is a data page if you need it.

Link


Is the Dvorak estimate being used as official?
Quoting 822. GeorgiaStormz:


Is the Dvorak estimate being used as official?
862 mbar is an unofficial estimate.

JMA has it at 895 mbar. Though later ADTs from the JTWC has it a 890 mbar.
825. SLU
Quoting 711. CybrTeddy:
165kt sustained winds is comparable to being in the Tuscaloosa tornado for nearly a half an hour, just so you guys can understand the magnitude of the situation the people of the Philippines are facing. Haiyan doesn't look like it wants to weaken either as the CDO continues to become more symmetrical and the eye continues to clear out, so I think a 170-175kt peak isn't out of the question before landfall.

I don't think I've ever given a forecast of a 200mph peak before.


Oh my @#%&#*& goodness!

The best case scenario now is for the northern eyewall to make landfall along a forested coastline.

826. NCstu
Quoting 822. GeorgiaStormz:


Is the Dvorak estimate being used as official?


my understanding is that a recon is required to make the numbers official which isn't going to happen.
Quoting 822. GeorgiaStormz:


Is the Dvorak estimate being used as official?


Depends on the situation.... Usually it is pretty accurate, I believe it is correct because it has 3 readings in a row now of sub 870 pressure ratings.
Appears to be taking the worst possible path.
Awesome, scary....wow! Godspeed Filipinos! Praying for you all.

Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
WOW! This is incredible, as perfect asymmetrically as you can get.



Yeah, the main body of the typhoon is asymmetric



30W latest update

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
21:00 PM JST November 7 2013
====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression [35](1006 hPa) located at 12.0N 103.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 10 knots.
If there is any good news, it's basically as strong as it can get. It is impossible for it to be any stronger, and if it does, it can't be official since Dvorak doesn't go higher than T8.0.
Incredible satellite representation.


Hopefully Haiyan would lead to the reinstating of aerial recon in the WPac by the relevant authorities.
I went on the safe side and used the 890
Quoting 832. yqt1001:
If there is any good news, it's basically as strong as it can get. It is impossible for it to be any stronger, and if it does, it can't be official since Dvorak doesn't go higher than T8.0.



The "IMPOSSIBLE TO BECOME STRONGER" statement is actually a theory, which is considered an unproven scientific law.

So, it could potentially be stronger.
Quoting 833. GatorWX:
Incredible satellite representation.




We have seen many a person mention annularity here - Yolanda (Haiyan) is really the only system that looks as if it will acheive that rare structure. We shall see in a few hours.
Quoting 830. AussieStorm:


Yeah, the main body of the typhoon is asymmetric



I meant symmetrical, lol always get those confused for some reason.
Quoting 837. Torito:



The "IMPOSSIBLE TO BECOME STRONGER" statement is actually a theory, which is considered an unproven scientific law.

So, it could potentially be stronger.
That's a scary thought, it's so close to land.
Quoting MoltenIce:
Hopefully Haiyan would lead to the reinstating of aerial recon in the WPac by the relevant authorities.


Problem is, so many countries have territorial waters and one won't allow the other to fly military aircraft into it's airspace. Especially China and Philippines.
perfect storm

CIMSS ADT

More areas placed under storm signal No. 4 due to "Yolanda"



Our blogger Caimito is in Southern Leyte (Sign.4).
Quoting 818. MoltenIce:
Pressure is sketchy.

3 agencies (including the JTWC) has it at 890 mbar.


I doubt it's that high..
Quoting 840. MoltenIce:
That's a scary thought, it's so close to land.


Yea, I wish it was a proven fact, but unfortunately, it is not. :[
Quoting 842. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
perfect storm

It's so...so round.

It's mesmerising.

Quoting 845. Thrawst:


I doubt it's that high..


So do I.
Seeing as Tip was a much larger storm if in fact Haiyan does have a lower pressure it may have much stronger winds then Tip did. Tip's record breaking size really helped it break the pressure record. Haiyan would be achieving a lower pressure in a smaller storm.
Quoting 832. yqt1001:
If there is any good news, it's basically as strong as it can get. It is impossible for it to be any stronger, and if it does, it can't be official since Dvorak doesn't go higher than T8.0.


That's not actually true regarding wind speed. I believe Typhoon Nancy had sustained wind speeds of up to 215mph.
Quoting 842. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
perfect storm




this may be a little two perfect storm
Structure is absolutely perfect. Only the most intense of storms take on this pattern with the perfectly round CDO and the one feeder band emerging from the southwest.



Tip



Phailin



Nida
Quoting yqt1001:
If there is any good news, it's basically as strong as it can get. It is impossible for it to be any stronger, and if it does, it can't be official since Dvorak doesn't go higher than T8.0.


So just cause a scale doesn't go any higher, it can't get any stronger??
Only storm out there as well.

Quoting 817. NCstu:


what is making it so asymmetrical?
The storm is not asymmetrical...At least not the part with the 190 mph winds...
Quoting 812. barbamz:


Caimito, I hope your hotel is a strong building? I'm really worried for you!
Sure. I built it myself. Safety glass in all the windows. We have a few guests from Europe staying.
Only 37.8mm of rain so far. It is coming in lunges lasting a minute or two. No real wind yet. Will go down near the beach at 1am (two hours) and see if there is a surge.
Some lightning north east of here, with distant thunder. We don't expect the worst here till about 11am or 1 pm tomorrow.
Quoting 850. Tazmanian:



this may be a little two perfect storm
yeah pretty to look at but a monster too see
Quoting 854. hydrus:
The storm is not asymmetrical...At least not the part with the 190 mph winds...
That's the highest recorded in recent years.

Last storm to have 190 mph winds was Hurricane Allen. I could be wrong though.
Quoting 853. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Only storm out there as well.

last one as well for a bit
Wow! What an incredible storm. I hope the people of the Leyte region weather typhoon Haiyan/Yolanda o.k.

WU is a website based on science, and Dr. masters and his associates certainly demonstrate that - even though the comments are peppered with unsupported "beliefs" and speculations.

So, does anyone know about scientific studies comparing satellite pressure data with aircraft recon pressure readings for given hurricanes/cyclones/typhoons?

NASA and NOAA are surely working to constantly improve acccuracy and correlation.
Quoting 859. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
last one as well for a bit
When does the Southern Hemisphere seasons start?
Quoting 855. Caimito:
Sure. I built it myself. Safety glass in all the windows. We have a few guests from Europe staying.
Only 37.8mm of rain so far. It is coming in lunges lasting a minute or two. No real wind yet. Will go down near the beach at 1am (two hours) and see if there is a surge.
Some lightning north east of here, with distant thunder. We don't expect the worst here till about 11am or 1 pm tomorrow.


I'm relieved to read that. Yes, tomorrow will be the day. Hope you can get some sleep before, and your guests will too! Greetings to them from Europe!
Only storm out there as well.



only storm that the JTWC is monitoring.. =P

There are actually 2 cyclone active in the world

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 12N 103E WEST 10 KT.

TYPHOON 1330 HAIYAN (1330) 895 HPA AT 10.2N 129.1E
When does the Southern Hemisphere seasons start?


October normally

November for Australia
Quoting 849. Envoirment:


That's not actually true regarding wind speed. I believe Typhoon Nancy had sustained wind speeds of up to 215mph.


Source Please.. :)

I am waiting for Dr. Masters to weigh in on a new blog post..
He's the expert in my opinion.. :)
866. NCstu
Quoting 854. hydrus:
The storm is not asymmetrical...At least not the part with the 190 mph winds...


I was referring to the part on the west side. What is allowing that to stay there?
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Only storm out there as well.



TD 30W (Wilma) is still dumping rains over Vietnam, Thailand, Laos.



Loop
Haiyan is heading straight for Tacloban City, with a population of 221,174 people.
Quoting 865. pcola57:


Source Please.. :)

I am waiting for Dr. Masters to weigh in on a new blog post..
He's the expert in my opinion.. :)
Link
What a beautiful looking storm. Wish it was not headed toward land because I know I certainly would not want to be anywhere near this thing. I sure hope someone is able to get video of the eye passing directly over them as I would love to see the experience of going from beyond crazy to completely calm and then back again.
I've never seen anything like this. What fascinates me is how long it has managed to not only maintain Cat 5 intensity, but to just keep strengthening. I have lot of satellite pics to save.
THis storm reminds me of Monica when it was at its peak intensity.
Quoting 851. 1900hurricane:
Structure is absolutely perfect. Only the most intense of storms take on this pattern with the perfectly round CDO and the one feeder band emerging from the southwest.



Tip



Phailin



Nida
I still think the IMD (Indian Meteorological Department) grossly underestimated Phailin's intensity, pressure-wise.
Quoting 865. pcola57:


Source Please.. :)

I am waiting for Dr. Masters to weigh in on a new blog post..
He's the expert in my opinion.. :)



Nancy did have "215 MPH winds", However, data readings back then were known to overestimate wind speeds, so the wind speeds were considered unofficial.

Link

And yes, I am also waiting for Jeff Masters, as well.
Quoting 869. MoltenIce:
Link


Thank you very much for that Link MoltenIce..
I couldn't confirm Nancy's strength with what links I have..
Thanks again..
Quoting 874. Torito:



Nancy did have "215 MPH winds", However, data readings back then were known to overestimate wind speeds, so the wind speeds were considered unofficial.

Link


Ah, all I remember is Nancy + 215mph winds.

Also, highest non-tornadic gust was recorded by Tropical Cyclone Olivia in 1996, at an astounding 253mph!

Link
10 ft. above sea level. Didn't I read that this storm is pushing some 46 foot waves?
Quoting 874. Torito:



Nancy did have "215 MPH winds", However, data readings back then were known to overestimate wind speeds, so the wind speeds were considered unofficial.

Link


Thank you also Torito..
I just don't trust wiki that much..
Thanks for the feed back my friend.. :)
Quoting 877. NEFLWATCHING:
10 ft. above sea level. Didn't I read that this storm is pushing some 46 foot waves?

Yea, right here.

Link
Fortified itself against EWRC....althouth strong winds are probably spread out anyway




Quoting 849. Envoirment:


That's not actually true regarding wind speed. I believe Typhoon Nancy had sustained wind speeds of up to 215mph.

It was later determined that the windspeeds recorded during that time were inflated above reality.

Link
Quoting 878. pcola57:


Thank you also Torito..
I just don't trust wiki that much..
Thanks for the feed back my friend.. :)


No problem :)
Quoting 879. Torito:

Yea, right here.

Link


Okay, folks - enough storm chasers have died. Leave. Now.
Quoting 880. GeorgiaStormz:
Fortified itself against EWRC....althouth strong winds are probably spread out anyway




The ring of convection around the eye is still getting darker and darker.
Sure. I built it myself. Safety glass in all the windows. We have a few guests from Europe staying.
Only 37.8mm of rain so far. It is coming in lunges lasting a minute or two. No real wind yet. Will go down near the beach at 1am (two hours) and see if there is a surge.
Some lightning north east of here, with distant thunder. We don't expect the worst here till about 11am or 1 pm tomorrow.





stay safe
I guess our doc is searching the dictionary right now for strongest ever wording, just shy of foul language ...

Quoting 866. NCstu:


I was referring to the part on the west side. What is allowing that to stay there?
Not sure yet..I have not had much time to make any observations, but this could be the strongest typhoon in many years..Will wait and see.
Quoting 877. NEFLWATCHING:
10 ft. above sea level. Didn't I read that this storm is pushing some 46 foot waves?


Maxium wave height has gone up to 50'..

000

wtpn33 pgtw 071500
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/ tropical cyclone warning//
rmks/
remarks:
071500z position near 10.4n 128.1e.
Super typhoon 31w (Haiyan), located approximately 543 nm east-
southeast of Manila, Philippines, has tracked west-
northwestward at 22 knots over the past six hours. Maximum
significant wave height at 071200z is 50 feet.
Next warnings
at 072100z, 080300z, 080900z and 081500z.
//
190mph? am i seeing right? this cyclone cant be serious O_o
Quoting 889. Josihua2:
190mph? am i seeing right? this cyclone cant be serious O_o


Yep, 190.
Quoting 889. Josihua2:
190mph? am i seeing right? this cyclone cant be serious O_o
Unfortunately, there's nothing wrong with your vision. :O
Quoting 860. Xulonn:
Wow! What an incredible storm. I hope the people of the Leyte region weather typhoon Haiyan/Yolanda o.k.

WU is a website based on science, and Dr. masters and his associates certainly demonstrate that - even though the comments are peppered with unsupported "beliefs" and speculations.

So, does anyone know about scientific studies comparing satellite pressure data with aircraft recon pressure readings for given hurricanes/cyclones/typhoons?

NASA and NOAA are surely working to constantly improve acccuracy and correlation.

Here is a good starting point.

The Advanced Dvorak Technique: Continued Development of an Objective Scheme to Estimate Tropical Cyclone Intensity Using Geostationary Infrared Satellite Imagery
How far is the storm from shore?
Typhoon Ida (1958)
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
325 km/h (200 mph)
Lowest pressure 877 mbar (hPa); 25.9 inHg

The eye became increasingly well-defined,[3] and near 0500 UTC on September 24, a reconnaissance aircraft deployed a dropsonde in the typhoon about 600 mi (970 km) northwest of Guam. The instrument recorded a barometric pressure of 877 mbar (25.9 inHg), which made Ida the strongest tropical cyclone on record at the time as measured by pressure.[4]
Around the time of its lowest pressure, the Hurricane Hunters estimated sustained winds in Ida of 345 km/h (215 mph).[4] The reconnaissance flight observed a surface temperature in the eye of 33 °C (92 °F) with 50% humidity; such a warm and dry eye was rather unusual for being located over the open ocean.
This is not good. Looks like Tacloban City is the target.

Quoting 880. GeorgiaStormz:
Fortified itself against EWRC....althouth strong winds are probably spread out anyway






That is a superb looking cyclone. I am amazed. You don't see too many that are this impressive too often. What a core! If it could shake that western band, I think we could safely and effectively use that term. I believe it starts with an "a" and ends with "r".
Quoting 857. AussieStorm:


Loop
That black bit on the bottom left is my house :(
Quoting 891. MoltenIce:
Unfortunately, there's nothing wrong with your vision. :O

how does one prepare for that? relocated from the entire island?
Quoting 888. pcola57:


Maxium wave height has gone up to 50'..

000

wtpn33 pgtw 071500
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/ tropical cyclone warning//
rmks/
remarks:
071500z position near 10.4n 128.1e.
Super typhoon 31w (Haiyan), located approximately 543 nm east-
southeast of Manila, Philippines, has tracked west-
northwestward at 22 knots over the past six hours. Maximum
significant wave height at 071200z is 50 feet.
Next warnings
at 072100z, 080300z, 080900z and 081500z.
//
Thank You pcola for posting the advisory.
Quoting 898. Josihua2:

how does one prepare for that? relocated from the entire island?


Well, you cant dig a hole. The typhoon would flood the place.... You cant go up high, mudslides will destroy the place.

The only option appears to be hiding inside of a superbly built building or getting the heck out of there.
Quoting 900. Torito:


Well, you cant dig a hole. The typhoon would flood the place.... You cant go up high, mudslides will destroy the place.

The only option appears to be hiding inside of a superbly built building or getting the heck out of there.
Getting the heck out of there would be the best course of action.
Quoting 897. Caimito:
That black bit on the bottom left is my house :(


Copied from a post this morning. Where Caimito is living (Maasin):



Wiki:
Maasin City is the capital city of Southern Leyte, Philippines. A fourth class city with 70 barangays, it is located on the western part of the province with land area of 21,171 hectares (52,310 acres). According to the 2010 census, it has a population of 81,250.
Quoting 901. MoltenIce:
Getting the heck out of there would be the best course of action.

Plus a thousand times.
904. NCstu
Quoting 897. Caimito:
That black bit on the bottom left is my house :(


do you have food and water for a couple of weeks? Batteries, flashlights, fuel?
Quoting Caimito:
That black bit on the bottom left is my house :(


Where are you located?
So if this maintains its current strength would this be the strongest storm ever at landfall?
Quoting 906. sdswwwe:
So if this maintains its current strength would this be the strongest storm ever at landfall?


Probably.
Quoting 892. 1900hurricane:

Here is a good starting point.

The Advanced Dvorak Technique: Continued Development of an Objective Scheme to Estimate Tropical Cyclone Intensity Using Geostationary Infrared Satellite Imagery
Thanks - you regulars who apply cfritical thinking, logic and science to your comments here are pretty incredible. I mostly lurk here and comment about GW when it is appropriate, but I really appreciate the input and contributions you folks make to the weather and storm discussions!
Philippines population density:

Quoting 895. unknowncomic:
This is not good. Looks like Tacloban City is the target.

I think it may move further south, to MacAthur or even Abuyog
For those of you lamenting about the lack of an actual pressure reading, there is still a way we could get some actual pressure readings from Haiyan, albeit it is somewhat morbid. It is still possible to get pressure readings at landfall.
The big picture:

Quoting 905. AussieStorm:


Where are you located?
Maasin, Southern Leyte
Quoting Torito:


Well, you cant dig a hole. The typhoon would flood the place.... You cant go up high, mudslides will destroy the place.

The only option appears to be hiding inside of a superbly built building or getting the heck out of there.


all of these things are hard to do. My friend on Samar island has gone to the mountain caves. They go far into the mountain but not just straight in. She told me there is a cliff above and a slight cliff below. She also told me they have been to this cave many times from when she was a little girl to hide from the typhoons.
The third bulletin of T/CI8.0!

TPPN12 PGTW 071518

A. SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN)

B. 07/1430Z

C. 10.4N

D. 128.0E

E. TWO/MTSAT

F. T8.0/8.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT OF
7.5. MET YIELDS 8.0. PT YIELDS 6.5. DBO MET.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
07/0932Z 9.8N 130.0E SSMS
07/1100Z 10.1N 129.3E SSMS
07/1215Z 10.2N 128.8E MMHS
07/1301Z 10.2N 128.6E MMHS


UEHARA
Nothing going on here thru saturday..prayers for those in the pacific..
Is CIMSS ADT Version 8.1.5 even capable of reading higher than 7.5?

Haiyan CIMSS ADT

I wonder what it's looking for in an 8.0. A Unicorn?
Quoting sdswwwe:
So if this maintains its current strength would this be the strongest storm ever at landfall?

Yes cause Tip weakened before landfall by about half if not more.


Compare Tip


with Haiyan.


I see similarities. Tip had TS Sarah in the South China sea and Haiyan has TD 30W(Wilma) over Vietnam. Also not they are similarly the same distance apart
Quoting 904. NCstu:


do you have food and water for a couple of weeks? Batteries, flashlights, fuel?
No. We do have a generator, and lots of extra fuel. We also have our own deep well.

There will be fish in the market on Monday for sure, and I cannot see the mall closing down
Quoting Caimito:
Maasin, Southern Leyte


Thanks, Stay safe. If you are scared, you are not alone. Even the pro's are scared.

Jim Edds ‏@ExtremeStorms 3m
Somebody asked me if I was scared? I was scared at 145 mph. Seriously. #TyphoonYolanda #YolandaPH #TyphoonHaiyan
talcoban is a seting duck right now i dont thin there will be any thing lift of that town when Super Typhoon Haiyan is done
Guiuan is first city on the island of Samar to fell the wrath of Haiyan.

Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5
TYPHOON YOLANDA
11:00 PM PhST November 7 2013
===================================

Typhoon "Yolanda" has maintained its course and intensity and continues to threaten eastern Visayas

At 10:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Yolanda [HAIYAN] (922 hPa) located at 10.3N 128.3E or 290 km east Southeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar has 10 minute sustained winds of 120 knots with gustiness up to 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 21 knots.

Signal Warnings
==================

Signal Warning #4

Luzon region
--------------
1. Masbate

Visayas region
----------------
1. Northern Samar
2. Eastern Samar
3. Samar
4. Leyte
5. Southern Leyte
6. Biliran Province
7. extreme Northern Cebu
8. Bantayan Island
9. Capiz
10. Aklan
11. Northern Antique

Signal Warning #3

Luzon region
-------------
1. Ticao Island
2. Sorsogon
3. Romblon
4. Calamian Group of Islands

Visayas region
--------------
1. Rest of Antique
2. Iloilo
3. Guimaras
4. Northern Negros Occidental
5. Northern Negros Oriental
6. Bohol
7. Northern Cebu
8. Cebu City
9. Camotes Island

Mindanao region
-------------------
1. Siargao Island
2. Dinagat Province

Signal Warning #2

Luzon region
--------------
1. Mindoro Provinces
2. Marinduque
3. Albay
4. Extreme Northern Palawan
5. Burias islands

Visayas region
--------------
1. Rest of Negros Occidental
2. Rest of Negros Oriental
3. Siquijor
4. Rest of Cebu

Mindanao region
----------------
1. Camiguin
2. Surigao Del Norte
3. Surigao Del Sur
4. Agusan del Norte

Signal Warning #1

Luzon region
------------
1. Metro Manila
2. Bataan
3. Camarines Norte
4. Camarines Sur
5. Catanduanes
6. Southern Quezon
7. Laguna
8. Rizal
9. Cavite
10. Batangas
11. Lubang Island
12. Rest of Northern Palawan
13. Puerto Princesa

Mindanao region
---------------
1. Misamis Oriental
2. Agusan del Sur

Additional Information
=========================
Yolanda, after hitting Guiuan or Abuyog, Leyte, is expected to traverse the provinces of Biliran, the Northern tip of Cebu, Iloilo, Capiz, Aklan, Romblon, Semirara Island, the southern part of Mindoro then Busuanga and will exit the Philippine landmass (on Saturday early morning) towards the west Philippine Sea.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10.0-30.0 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 600 km diameter of the typhoon.

Sea travel is risky over the seaboards of northern Luzon and over the eastern seaboard of central Luzon.

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under signal #4, #3, #2 & #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under signal #4, #3 and #2 are alerted against storm surges which may reach up to 7 meters wave height.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Quoting 923. HadesGodWyvern:
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5
TYPHOON YOLANDA
11:00 PM PhST November 7 2013
===================================

Typhoon "Yolanda" has maintained its course and intensity and continues to threaten eastern Visayas

At 10:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Yolanda [HAIYAN] (922 hPa) located at 10.3N 128.3E or 290 km east Southeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar has 10 minute sustained winds of 120 knots with gustiness up to 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 21 knots.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.


That pressure is so wrong.... :/
This is like a car crash happening in super slo-mo and unable to do anything to stop it.
** WTPH20 RPMM 071200 ***
T T T TYPHOON WARNING 05

AT 1200 07 NOVEMBER TYPHOON (HAIYAN) (1330) WAS LOCATED BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA INCLUDING GUIUAN DOPPLER RADAR AT ONE ZERO POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT ONE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ONE ZERO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE TWO TWO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS SIX TWO METERS PER SECOND NEAR THE CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 081200 ONE TWO POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT TWO EAST AND AT 091200 ONE THREE POINT THREE NORTH AND ONE ONE ONE POINT SEVEN EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO WEATHER MANILA PD

WEATHER MANILA=
927. NCstu
Quoting 924. Torito:


That pressure is so wrong.... :/


I hope not. And I hope that the storm surge estimate is wrong in the opposite direction. 7m is no joke.
So we complain about a horribly corrupting four letter word, but we're OK with bloggers expressing their opinion that another blogger will be gone when Haiyan comes through?

Think before you post folks.

And stay safe Caimito.
So we complain about a horribly corrupting four letter word, but we're OK with bloggers expressing their opinion that another blogger will be gone when Haiyan comes through?

Think before you post folks.

And stay safe Caimito.





well said!
930. NCstu
Quoting 910. Caimito:
I think it may move further south, to MacAthur or even Abuyog


I recommend stocking up on all of the non-perishables you can transport. If not for you and your group, then for others who live nearby but may not have the resources.
Quoting 921. Tazmanian:
talcoban is a seting duck right now i dont thin there will be any thing lift of that town when Super Typhoon Haiyan is done


Looks like they'll avoid the NW quadrant because the eye is going to pass directly over them, but any deviation south will cause them to get 190mph sustained winds.

Prays to these people.
Quoting 921. Tazmanian:
talcoban is a seting duck right now i dont thin there will be any thing lift of that town when Super Typhoon Haiyan is done

The end of the bay, inlet, estuary is the target and there is a lot of water to build up there.
With these kinds of winds surface water may not take much notice of gravity, hence it will not be able to find its own level
We might be looking at a tsunami type event here where normal records do not really apply.
For a few days it been speculated by some of us on here that this storm would be a record breaker but there will be a lot of people who will think it will just pass.
Come Saturday a lot of the towns and villages in this inlet are going to be in a very bad way.
Needless to say after that, this is not a bullet hitting a wall, its going to pass over and carry on to the next piece of land in its path.
with this storm packing 50 foot seas they sould all so have tsunami warnings in place be come that is not this storm sugres any more its now call a tsunami
We might be looking at a tsunami type event here where normal records do not really apply.



this cannot happen as a wind generated event has the energy above the water and a tsunami event the energy travels through the water.....


high and damaging waves and surge should be expected, however a tsunami effect should not...
That Atlantic comparison that keeps popping up in my head is Mitch, although Haiyan would be Mitch on steroids.



Quoting 930. NCstu:


I recommend stocking up on all of the non-perishables you can transport. If not for you and your group, then for others who live nearby but may not have the resources.
It is almost midnight. Nowhere open now. Anyway, we are a small hotel with lots of stock.
Any live feeds from Leyte?
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Looks like they'll avoid the NW quadrant because the eye is going to pass directly over them, but any deviation south will cause them to get 190mph sustained winds.

Prays to these people.


WOW

Quoting 919. Caimito:
No. We do have a generator, and lots of extra fuel. We also have our own deep well.

There will be fish in the market on Monday for sure, and I cannot see the mall closing down


Caimito, as you are new on this blog: you've got WU-post (the red alarm on top of your WU-page) :)
Quoting 939. barbamz:


Caimito, as you are new on this blog: you've got WU-post (the red alarm on top of your WU-page) :)



AKA WUMAIL! :)
Quoting 926. HadesGodWyvern:
** WTPH20 RPMM 071200 ***
T T T TYPHOON WARNING 05

AT 1200 07 NOVEMBER TYPHOON (HAIYAN) (1330) WAS LOCATED BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA INCLUDING GUIUAN DOPPLER RADAR AT ONE ZERO POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT ONE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ONE ZERO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE TWO TWO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS SIX TWO METERS PER SECOND NEAR THE CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 081200 ONE TWO POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT TWO EAST AND AT 091200 ONE THREE POINT THREE NORTH AND ONE ONE ONE POINT SEVEN EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO WEATHER MANILA PD

WEATHER MANILA=
Still converts to 922 mb. which seems high to me.
Quoting 941. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Still converts to 922 mb. which seems high to me.


Yea, it is too high... :/
Quoting 931. CybrTeddy:


Looks like they'll avoid the NW quadrant because the eye is going to pass directly over them, but any deviation south will cause them to get 190mph sustained winds.

Prays to these people.
Haiyan is moving at 21 KTS. This may increase the windspeeds within the northern quadrant. It would be nice to have a big fat eyewall regeneration cycle just before landfall.
Quoting 941. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Still converts to 922 mb. which seems high to me.
I though the same.
Anybody notice that now, HAIYAN NHAS 190 MPH WINDS, AND 230 MPH WIND GUST, even CNN admits it, it has a possible 370 mph gust, whcich could possibly beat Wilma or Tip as the strongest storm in the wold, not in pressure, Linkbut in wind, I copied this from Wikipedia, it says.





Haiyan (Yolanda)

TY



Haiyan 2013-11-07 0420Z.jpg
Satellite image JTWC wp3113.gif
Storm track


Current storm status
Typhoon (JMA)


Current storm status
Category 5 super typhoon (1-min mean)


As of:
15:00 UTC November 7

Location:
10.4°N 128.0°E
About 543 nmi (1,006 km; 625 mi) ESE of Manila, Philippines

Winds:
125 knots (230 km/h; 145 mph) sustained (10-min mean)
165 knots (305 km/h; 190 mph) sustained (1-min mean)
gusting to 175 knots (325 km/h; 200 mph)

Pressure:
895 hPa (26.43 inHg)

Movement:
WNW at 20 kn (37 km/h; 23 mph)
Anyone have a Live Stream Link?
PAGASA probably has a fixed pressure estimate but the numbers are so odd at times.
Quoting stormchaser19:
Anyone have a Live Stream Link?


Link to earthcam Philippines page.
Quoting 945. weatherboy1251:
Anybody notice that now, HAIYAN NHAS 190 MPH WINDS, AND 230 MPH WIND GUST, even CNN admits it, it has a possible 370 mph gust, whcich could possibly beat Wilma or Tip as the strongest storm in the wold, not in pressure, Linkbut in wind, I copied this from Wikipedia, it says.





Haiyan (Yolanda)

TY



Haiyan 2013-11-07 0420Z.jpg
Satellite image JTWC wp3113.gif
Storm track


Current storm status
Typhoon (JMA)


Current storm status
Category 5 super typhoon (1-min mean)


As of:
15:00 UTC November 7

Location:
10.4°N 128.0°E
About 543 nmi (1,006 km; 625 mi) ESE of Manila, Philippines

Winds:
125 knots (230 km/h; 145 mph) sustained (10-min mean)
165 knots (305 km/h; 190 mph) sustained (1-min mean)
gusting to 175 knots (325 km/h; 200 mph)

Pressure:
895 hPa (26.43 inHg)

Movement:
WNW at 20 kn (37 km/h; 23 mph)




your late
even CNN admits it, it has a possible 370 mph gust,


370.......this storm is bad enough without having to unrealistically hype what may happen
The Philippines are getting ZERO breaks this week.
Quoting 943. hydrus:
Haiyan is moving at 21 KTS. This may increase the windspeeds within the northern quadrant. It would be nice to have a big fat eyewall regeneration cycle just before landfall.
sir they need 5 simultaneous EWRC to do anything
Quoting 951. biff4ugo:
The Philippines are getting ZERO breaks this week.

They are getting breaks, just the wrong kind of breaks.
Here is a good one from Boracay
Link

Quoting 946. stormchaser19:
Anyone have a Live Stream Link?
230MPH gust... That is an EF5 Tornado
Good night guys, heading off for the night.

Expect VIS images of Haiyan in 6-7 hours or so.
Quoting 950. ricderr:
even CNN admits it, it has a possible 370 mph gust,


370.......this storm is bad enough without having to unrealistically hype what may happen
Not even hype. Completely false. A 370 mph gust would make this the strongest wind ever recorded on earth. Even beating out the EF-5's. Not going to happen in a tropical cyclone. Maybe he meant 370 km/h and that is still unlikely though possible. Best to just disregard that post.
I'm out. Brain is fried,
. Goodnight
never mind
The Atlantic has not produced a storm comparable to Haiyan in the satellite era...

With the 170kt/862mb estimates along with a perfect 8.0, it really doesn't get better than this.

2013NOV07 125700 8.0 862.2 +4.2 170.0 8.0 8.0 8.0
190mph; (less than) 895mb

This is surreal...
Kind of a neat perspective of what it's working with:



I'd say the pressure is somewhere near 900 mb, perhaps even sub-900 mb.




SO symmetrical and great satellite presentation/very deep convection tells me this is certainly stronger than 922mb. Just my opinion, but I've been watching these awhile and you don't get ones that appear this perfect very often.
Quoting 878. pcola57:


Thank you also Torito..
I just don't trust wiki that much..
Thanks for the feed back my friend.. :)


BTW here is a link to all officially recognized weather extremes.

LINK
Quoting 950. ricderr:
even CNN admits it, it has a possible 370 mph gust,


370.......this storm is bad enough without having to unrealistically hype what may happen


They say 370kph, which is 230mph. He/She just mis-quoted them. :)
They say 370 kph, which is 230mph. He just mis-quoted them. :)



ok...that's makes better since seeing that's about 230 MPH
Quoting 960. Stormchaser2007:
The Atlantic has not produced a storm comparable to Haiyan in the satellite era...

With the 170kt/862mb estimates along with a perfect 8.0, it really doesn't get better than this.

2013NOV07 125700 8.0 862.2 +4.2 170.0 8.0 8.0 8.0


170Kts = 195mph!
That is just about/is the most intense CDO that's I've witnessed. Very large and very chilly cloud tops.

It's amazing though. The white pixels (which indicate -90C cloud tops) just continue to expand in size around the eyewall. I'm going on a limb here and say that this is a 200mph cyclone.

970. NCstu
Quoting 967. jambev:


170Kts = 195mph!


that same source was giving estimates in the 880s for Phailin. Not credible in my opinion.
PAGASA twitter link

you can read people's comments with hashtag YolandaPH
Quoting 964. daddyjames:


BTW here is a link to all officially recognized weather extremes.

LINK


Thanks DJ..
I appreciate it..
Waiting for Dr. Masters new post..
Quoting 960. Stormchaser2007:
The Atlantic has not produced a storm comparable to Haiyan in the satellite era...

With the 170kt/862mb estimates along with a perfect 8.0, it really doesn't get better than this.

2013NOV07 125700 8.0 862.2 +4.2 170.0 8.0 8.0 8.0


Assuming the satellite estimates are correct. The eye on the storm is large compared to some other powerful category 5 hurricanes.
Oh my gosh...

Quite potentially the strongest cyclone recorded that might likely make landfall at the strongest intensity for a cyvlone that has made landfall.

This is insane.

I would daresay, even though it is formideable - what a gorgeous tropical cyclone. Perhaps the best looking I've ver seen.
975. NCstu
"It is well that hurricanes are so terrible. We should grow too fond of them." - Robert E. Lee
We are witnessing a piece of modern-era tropical cyclone history with this one in terms of pressures and strength at landfall.
SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 543 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) REVEALS STY 31W HAS MAINTAINED A SHARPLY DEFINED EYE WITH
MULTIPLE CONCENTRIC RINGS AND A DEEP CONVECTIVE EYEWALL. A 071100Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A STRONG FEEDER BAND WRAPPING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS A DARK RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION OUTLINING THE COLD CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE EYEWALL.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR ANIMATION
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON RECENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES INDICATING AN INTENSITY NEAR 170 KNOTS. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ALONG THE TRACK REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE
PROVIDING AMPLE SURFACE HEATING, SUPPORTING THE SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. STY 31W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), WHICH IS ENTRENCHED TO THE
NORTH.
Almost and certainly not outside the realm of possibilities:




Philippine's geographic map:



Really no good location at this point with a storm of this magnitude (in reference to the map above), but we can hope it makes landfall in a sparsely populated area. Another thing is it's moving fast, increasing chances of stronger winds at landfall and also a lesser degree of weakening during its trek across the island nation. I think these folks will remember this one for awhile even with the number of systems that affect them. This one will likely stand out for years.
Wow.. Haiyan looks incredible. Been a while since I've seen a cyclone like this! And is there any news from Palau? And ofcourse I wish the best for the Philipines, but it's looking very bad.. :(
Quoting 977. Stormchaser2007:


JTWC is going with 170 knots now...

Officially 195 mph or the highest sustained winds ever during the satellite era for a cyclone.


Oh we're going by winds...okay.
So, in otherwords, about a 10mile wide F4 tornado is about to hit the Philipines....
The eye is large, but also sustainable. Storms of this intensity are usually entering a new eyewall replacement cycle almost as soon as the previous one is completed. Haiyan hasn't had one in nearly 24 hours.
Quoting 980. Gino99:
Wow.. Haiyan looks incredible. Been a while since I've seen a cyclone like this! And is there any news from Palau?


Fortunately no fatalities, but a lot of damage.

Palau assesses damage after Super Typhoon Haiyan
ABC-News, updated 2 hours 12 minutes ago (including a video report!)
Quoting 973. Drakoen:


Assuming the satellite estimates are correct. The eye on the storm is large compared to some other powerful category 5 hurricanes.


Not Katrina huge though. I was thinking it would make a decent comparison, but upon looking at past sat pics of the storm, was amazed at the size of the eye when it blew up over the central GOM. Same with Wilma after that ewrc. I'll add too that I couldn't find a single shot of Katrina with as cold of cloud canopy/cdo. This is an historical system I'd say. Wishing for recon, although and unfortunately we could get those accurate readings upon landfall. I'm betting scientists will be on hand for this one or will have at least placed instruments in its path. Seems like a good candidate.
So, in otherwords, about a 10mile wide F4 tornado is about to hit the Philipines....


no...it's nothing like a tornado....two very distinctly different wind effects
12Z GFS still bringing heavy snow to NC & Virginia even all the way to the coast!


If folks remember, after Hurricane Andrew, Dr. Fujita did post-storm analysis and speculated that there will "mini-vortices" in the eye wall probably closing in on 200 mph in spite of the Cat 5 designation with sustained winds in the 140 mph range,

This storm looks like it is going to beat those records at "first" landfall; I don't think that the Phillipine Islands are going to slow this one down too much on it's way to the second landfall location near Vietnam................. This is a great calamity for that region.
When was the last time you have seen an eyewall THIS intense!?!



This is easily the strongest storm I've ever tracked since I first started tracking them in 2011.
Quoting 985. GatorWX:


Not Katrina huge though. I was thinking it would make a decent comparison, but upon looking at past sat pics of the storm, was amazed at the size of the eye when it blew up over the central GOM. Same with Wilma after that ewrc. I'll add too that I couldn't find a single shot of Katrina with as cold of cloud canopy/cdo. This is an historical system I'd say. Wishing for recon, although and unfortunately we could get those accurate readings upon landfall. I'm betting scientists will be on hand for this one or will have at least placed instruments in its path. Seems like a good candidate.


The tropopause is higher in the Western Pacific than in the Atlantic so the cloud tops are allowed to naturally extend higher and thus colder.
Can the Atlantic Basin ever produce a storm like this?
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


That has to be one of the most beautiful yet scary images of a cyclone i've ever seen. I can only imagine what the fury will be like. Unimaginable, and no one will be able to record it because lets face it, absolutely everything will be leveled in its path. 200mph winds, 50 foot waves. Nothing stands a chance.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
995. NCstu
Is the doc on TWC?
A LINK to NOAH website for the Philippines. Click on the appropriate tools to see the Doppler radar, storm surge information, etc.

Quoting 992. eyewallblues:
Can the Atlantic Basin ever produce a storm like this?


It would be unlikely with the limitations of the Altantic Basin. Wilma is about as good as it gets over here.
Quoting 939. barbamz:


Caimito, as you are new on this blog: you've got WU-post (the red alarm on top of your WU-page) :)
Yeah. Got ya.
Am indeed new to the blogs, but been uploading weather to WU since May 2012 every 5 mins. :)
Quoting 984. barbamz:


Fortunately no fatalities, but a lot of damage.

Palau assesses damage after Super Typhoon Haiyan
ABC-News, updated 2 hours 12 minutes ago (including a video report!)


Thanks alot man!
Quoting 581. Tornado6042008X:
Hayian has made this blog surprisingly active for this time of year at this time of the day.

Hayian at 175 mph right now I believe.
Now it has 195 mph wind (NOT gusts)
Haiyan now to the northeast of Palawan. Still a dangerous Category 5.