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Dangerous Category 2 Typhoon Haiyan Headed For the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:14 PM GMT on November 05, 2013

Category 2 Typhoon Haiyan is rapidly intensifying as it steams west-northwest at 17 mph towards the Philippine Islands. Satellite loops show that Haiyan is a large and steadily organizing typhoon, with plenty of intense thunderstorms that are developing very cold cloud tops as they push high into the atmosphere. With warm waters that extend to great depth, low wind shear, and excellent upper-level outflow, there is nothing to keep Haiyan from growing into a 150 mph super typhoon by Thursday, and it may have a chance at becoming Earth's fifth Category 5 storm of 2013. Both the GFS and European models predict that Haiyan will hit the central Philippines between 3 - 6 UTC on Friday, and Haiyan will likely be the most dangerous tropical cyclone to affect the Philippines this year. This is particularly true since Tropical Depression Thirty dumped heavy rains over the central Philippines Monday, which helped saturate the soils. This morning's 06Z run of the HWRF model (Figure 2) predicted that Haiyan would hit the Philippines as a Category 3 storm, bringing a 200-mile wide swath of 4 - 8 inches of rain.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Haiyan taken just before sunset at 6:57 UTC November 5, 2013. Image credit: NOAA.


Figure 2. Predicted rainfall from the 06Z November 5, 2013 run of the HWRF model, for the 126-hour period ending at 12Z November 10, 2013. A 30-mile wide swath of 8+ inches of rain (medium dark red colors) is predicted to cross the Central Philippines, with a 200-mile wide swath of the islands receiving 4 - 8" (red colors.) Image credit: NOAA/NCEP/EMC.

Tropical Storm 30 a heavy rainfall threat for Southeast Asia
Tropical Storm 30 will hit southern Vietnam near 12 UTC on Wednesday, and bring heavy rains of 8+ inches to portions of Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, and Thailand over the next few days. By Friday, the storm will emerge in the North Indian Ocean, where it will likely regenerate and potentially threaten Myanmar, India, or Bangladesh early next week.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Philippines Population Map.

Haiyan's eye temperature is now 20 C, as per ADT.
Haiyan looking very healthy this am..

David Suzuki has issued a scary warning about Japan's Fukushima nuclear plant, saying that if it falls in a future earthquake, it's "bye bye Japan" and the entire west coast of North America should be evacuated.

The "Nature of Things" host made the comments in a talk posted to YouTube after he joined Dr. David Schindler for "Letting in the Light," a symposium on water ecology held at the University of Alberta on Oct. 30 and 31.

An excerpt of the talk shows Suzuki outlining a frightening scenario that would result from the destruction of the nuclear plant.

"Fukushima is the most terrifying situation I can imagine," he said.

"Three out of the four plants were destroyed in the earthquake and in the tsunami. The fourth one has been so badly damaged that the fear is, if there's another earthquake of a seven or above that, that building will go and then all hell breaks loose.

"And the probability of a seven or above earthquake in the next three years is over 95 per cent."

Suzuki said that an international team of experts needs to go into the Fukushima plant and help fix the problem, but said the Japanese government has "too much pride to admit that."


"I have seen a paper which says that if in fact the fourth plant goes under in an earthquake and those rods are exposed, it's bye bye Japan and everybody on the west coast of North America should evacuate," he said.

"If that isn't terrifying, I don't know what is."

Suzuki's warning came as radiation from the Fukushima plant has been detected in northern Alaska and along the west coast, CBC News reported.

Radiation in Alaskan waters could reach Cold War levels, said Douglas Dasher, a researcher at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, although John Kelley, a professor emeritus at the same university, doesn't seem as certain that it will reach dangerous levels for humans.

"The data they will need is not only past data but current data, and if no one is sampling anything then we won't really know it, will we," he told the network.


Published on Oct 31, 2013

David Schindler and David Suzuki talk about the threat of Fukushima. Now with multi-language Closed Captioning.

whats left of the moisture is being squeezed like one of those stress balls....its the death throws of the end of a season that may mark the beginning of a quiet period.
no one needs storms we just need rain but sadly the two go together. Have a nice winter all.
Quoting 504. Patrap:
David Suzuki has issued a scary warning about Japan's Fukushima nuclear plant, saying that if it falls in a future earthquake, it's "bye bye Japan" and the entire west coast of North America should be evacuated.

The "Nature of Things" host made the comments in a talk posted to YouTube after he joined Dr. David Schindler for "Letting in the Light," a symposium on water ecology held at the University of Alberta on Oct. 30 and 31.

An excerpt of the talk shows Suzuki outlining a frightening scenario that would result from the destruction of the nuclear plant.

"Fukushima is the most terrifying situation I can imagine," he said.

"Three out of the four plants were destroyed in the earthquake and in the tsunami. The fourth one has been so badly damaged that the fear is, if there's another earthquake of a seven or above that, that building will go and then all hell breaks loose.

"And the probability of a seven or above earthquake in the next three years is over 95 per cent."

Suzuki said that an international team of experts needs to go into the Fukushima plant and help fix the problem, but said the Japanese government has "too much pride to admit that."


"I have seen a paper which says that if in fact the fourth plant goes under in an earthquake and those rods are exposed, it's bye bye Japan and everybody on the west coast of North America should evacuate," he said.

"If that isn't terrifying, I don't know what is."

Suzuki's warning came as radiation from the Fukushima plant has been detected in northern Alaska and along the west coast, CBC News reported.

Radiation in Alaskan waters could reach Cold War levels, said Douglas Dasher, a researcher at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, although John Kelley, a professor emeritus at the same university, doesn't seem as certain that it will reach dangerous levels for humans.

"The data they will need is not only past data but current data, and if no one is sampling anything then we won't really know it, will we," he told the network.


Published on Oct 31, 2013

David Schindler and David Suzuki talk about the threat of Fukushima. Now with multi-language Closed Captioning.



Thanks for that Pat..
Very important for those concerned about our planet..
90A is undergoing RI now.

From Storm2k

Enso 3.4 managed a little warming, 4 saw the biggest change.

If the stats weren't showing it, one would think some kind of Nino atmospherically was going on looking how vastly different the Atlantic and Wpac has performed.

509. 7544
Quoting 488. StormTrackerScott:
light to moderate showers this morning. Some areas last evening saw a good soaking especially over Cape Canaveral.



hey all hmmmm is that gulf blob suppose to move east toward fl tia
High and dry today for the FL Peninsula. Looks like we have hit the dry season.

Sea surface anomalies across Nino 4 are undergoing a rapid warming trend and it will be interesting to see this trend continues to spread east.
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
842 am EST Wednesday Nov 6 2013

Update...
high pressure ridging into the Gulf maintains NE and east winds
today....rather robust at times but less that yesterday. This flow
drags in some occasional cloudiness with isolated sprinkles
or showers from the east Florida coast. Temperatures on track to reach
highs in the Lower-Middle 80s with the coast slightly cooler.
Forecasts look good with no updates.

&&

Aviation...northeast flow currently across the peninsula will
become more easterly as the day progresses. Some cloud cover...and
a few light showers will move westward from the space coast during
the morning and these could serve to lower ceilings to MVFR briefly
this morning. Have tempo groups in at tpa...pie and srq to account
for the possible reduction in ceilings. Otherwise VFR expected
today...while winds will be much lighter than the previous couple
days.

&&

Marine...
high pressure over the Gulf dominates with NE or east winds
generally 15 knots or less. However...waters beyond 20 nm may
still be at 15-20 knots...caution headline criteria...for early
afternoon. Will fine tune this on the next issuance...out around
1030 am...but otherwise no change in the forecast.

&&

Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Gulf waters...none.
&&

$$

Update/marine...09/rude
aviation...11/mckaughan
data collection/upper air...74/Wynn
Geez. No weakening in sight.

Quoting 509. 7544:


hey all hmmmm is that gulf blob suppose to move east toward fl tia


It may move over S FL later this week. Looks wet (mainly light to moderate showers) for eastern FL over the next 2 weeks with atleast a slight chance of rain everyday over the next 10 days.

One can get a "real" NWS forecast by using the search box at the top of this and every wu page.

Just insert a city, zip, or State. Globally.

Central FL dry season forecast. Below normal precip and storminess.



Notice ENSO Neutral. No El Nino.
Orlando

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
17:30 PM IST November 6 2013
==================================

The low pressure area over southeast Arabian sea concentrated into a well marked low pressure and lies over the same area.

Prediction of Meteorological Condition
--------------------------------------

The well mark low pressure would move west northwestwards and concentrate into a depression by tomorrow.

Extended Weather Outlook
--------------------------

Under the influence of an upper air cyclonic circulation which emerge over Andaman Sea from Pacific ocean, a low pressure area may develop around over Andaman Sea around November 9th.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35
21:00 PM JST November 6 2013
===================================

South China Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 11.3N 109.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 13 knots.

This is the final tropical cyclone advisory from the Japan Meteorological Agency..

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON HAIYAN (T1330)
21:00 PM JST November 6 2013
===================================

Caroline Islands

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Haiyan (920 hPa) located at 7.9N 136.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 110 knots with gusts of 155 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 16 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T7.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 9.8N 129.9E - 120 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) East Of Mindanao
48 HRS: 12.0N 122.4E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Overland Visayas Region
72 HRS: 13.6N 114.2E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
2013NOV06 133000 7.6 879.7 +4.9 158.0 7.6 7.7 7.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 13.96 -82.22 EYE 18 IR 72.8 8.06 -135.45

Dvorak 7.5 from Tokyo ADT
Quoting 516. StormWx:
Central FL dry season forecast. Below normal precip and storminess.



Notice ENSO Neutral. No El Nino.
YES Maybe dry weather ahead for us,we'll see what happens.
One can get a "real" NWS forecast by using the search box at the top of this and every wu page.

Just insert a city, zip, or State. Globally.




perfectly stated
Snow totals in MN this morning..

The winner of most snow goes to..

0630 AM SNOW 5 S BARNES 46.33N 91.51W
11/06/2013 M5.0 INCH BAYFIELD WI PUBLIC

30 DEGREES AT OBSERVATION TIME
Fresh M3.8 flare. More see solarham.net


Would be bad if active sunspot 1890 when now turning more into earth direction would do something to disturb satellites, when a Cat5 is threatening the Philippines.
Quoting 507. Torito:
90A is undergoing RI now.



90A in the Indian Ocean:

Quoting Ameister12:
Good morning, everybody!

It's a safe bet that Haiyan has probably reached category 5 intensity. It doesn't get much more intense than this.


The eye has grown, I guess that means the EWRC is complete
Haiyan is one of those beautiful classic super typhoons. However, it should be noted that the CDO is weighted to the west side slightly and the outflow to the east is slightly restricted. It looks like there may be a touch of easterly shear affecting Haiyan, and while it does not appear to be very significant, it'll probably keep him just short of his max potential (at least according to dvorak and other satellite estimates).



For the record, max potential dvorak intensity in this case is probably 8.0, so yeah, I'm being a bit nit-picky. :P
I often wonder why the Philippines doesn't have recon...

530. NCstu
does anyone know what the terrain is like in the central islands? Do people live close to sea level or on mountainsides? Will this storm be a nuisance or a major catastrophe?
Quoting barbamz:

Screenshot from Ocean swell tracker: Hayian with swells/waves up to 38ft (and more) in the center. Palau gets around 30ft in the moment.


That would be Caroline Islands, Hayian hasn't made it to Palau just yet.

Rainfall is off the charts right now.








No words can describe how I am feeling right now. The sadness and the sorrow the people of Central Philippines and also the Caroline Islands and the Republic of Palau will go through and also the absolute raw power Nature can deal.


Could it be possible the reason there has been so many Super Typhoons this year is because the Atlantic season has been non-existent??
Quoting NCstu:
does anyone know what the terrain is like in the central islands? Do people live close to sea level or on mountainsides? Will this storm be a nuisance or a major catastrophe?


This is going to be bad.





Population


32W...
Haiyan


JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Been wanting to visit Palau....wish them the best.
Re: Port #504
Thanks for sharing that, Patrap. Dark days ahead. I thought they just had a 7.0 in that same region less than a week ago.
Quoting 487. barbamz:
Haiyan will pass very close to the northern tip of Palau. Eye is as large as the whole little island:


(Saved image. Source to enlarge)
One small wobble could mean a big difference for those folks.
Quoting 474. Sfloridacat5:
Wunderground shows 0% chance of precipitation with high of 55 degrees for next Thursday for Baltimore MD.