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Powerful St. Jude's Day Storm Pounding France and the UK

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:57 AM GMT on October 28, 2013

A mighty Atlantic gale, called the 2013 St. Jude's Day storm by the UK Met Office, and "Christian" by the Free University of Berlin, is battering Western Europe with hurricane-strength wind gusts, waves up to 25 feet high, and driving rains. As of 2 am local time, the peak wind gust from the storm in the UK according to a tweet from the UK Met Office (@metoffice) was 92 mph, at the Isle of Wight in the English Channel. Powerful winds have also swept the north coast of France; winds in Brest, France hit 41 mph, gusting to 67 mph at 2 am local time Monday, and gusted as high as 65 mph at Caen. With the trees still in leaf, winds this strong have the potential to cause heavy tree damage and large scale power outages. The storm is moving quickly, and sustained winds fo 35 - 45 mph will arrive along the coast of the Netherlands by 6 am local time Monday, by noon in Denmark, near 6 pm in Southern Sweden, and near midnight Monday night in Estonia and Southern Finland. You can check out the current winds in Southern Britain and Northern France using our wundermap zoomed into the region with the weather station layer turned on.


Figure 1. Waves crash against the sea barriers in Porthcawl, South Wales, on October 27, 2013, ahead of the arrival of the St. Jude's Day storm. Image credit: GEOFF CADDICK/AFP/Getty Images.

Last majorly destructive extratropical storm in Western Europe: 2011
October 28 is St. Jude's feast day, in honor of the Catholic saint who was one of Jesus' twelve apostles and is often appealed to as the patron saint of lost causes. His namesake storm has the potential to be one of the more destructive extratropical storms to hit Western Europe in the past decade, judging by a short history of these storms written by wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt back in 2011. The most recent storm of note to hit the region was Winter Storm Joachim of December 15 - 17, 2011, which has a central pressure of 964 mb and brought a peak wind gust of 131 mph to Auvergne, France. Damage was estimated at $325 million by Aon Benfield. Also in that year, ex-Hurricane Katia hit northern Scotland on September 12 when the trees were in full leaf, causing tree damage that was much higher than a winter or springtime storm of similar ferocity would have caused. One person was killed by a falling tree, and heavy tree damage and numerous power failures were reported throughout Britain, with a price tag of $158 million, according to Aon Benfield. Wind gusts experienced in Britain included 86 mph at Glen Ogle, Scotland, 76 mph at Edinburgh Blackford Hill, 75 mph at Capel Curig in Wales, 72 mph at Glasgow Bishopton, and 71 mph at Loftus, North Yorkshire.


Figure 2. Image of Hurricane Katia taken from the International Space Station at 15 GMT September 9, 2011, by astronaut Ron Garan. At the time, Katia was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Long Island, New York is visible at the lower left.

I'll have a new post by Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. VR46L
Quoting 493. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Too me this is enough evidence right here. Strong SAL outbreak after outbreak. I remember VR46L pointing this out and it seemed a lot of us were in denial myself included that eventually it would break up come the peak of the season.



Aw thanks ! Yeah it was a dry Atlantic season that just would not moisten up ... killed anything that formed within hrs .

Quoting 499. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Don't you just love cool stuff. Phailin back on Oct. 11.



Have another cool thing: Lekima performing an EWRC.

with shear it may NOT be able to move northward and survive..
Quoting 459. barbamz:


196kmh/121mph in Kegnaes/Denmark. - I hope, our Doc or Weatherhistorian can confirm this reading in a blog later on.


There have been some dicussion about the reliability of this data on Danish blogs. I have heard that the Danish Met Office (DMI)will make a check tomorrow. However I live only some 40 km from Kegnaes which is situated at the Flensburg Fjord in the Baltic Sea quite near the border German/Denmark. But indeed, it was really bad weather for only a few hours this afternoon in the southernmost Denmark.

Hard to believe anything decent could come out of this. No circulation left in the wave entering the Caribbean, at least right now.
Quoting 498. allancalderini:
But that was for August and September.What happen to October then? Sal might have supress activity in Aug and Sep but in October we can`t point fingers to it.
Actually we can, think about what does SAL do to the atmosphere and water temperatures, not cause the atmosphere to become stable and cool the water temperatures? It may have also messed up the mid levels of the atmosphere as well which could explain a lot as to why systems didn't grow with height. It all kind of makes sense if you piece together the puzzle on this season. Now I'm not saying there is other things too.
Quoting 493. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Too me this is enough evidence right here. Strong SAL outbreak after outbreak. I remember VR46L pointing this out and it seemed a lot of us were in denial myself included that eventually it would break up come the peak of the season.


Again, Saharan Air Layer was not anymore abundant than usual this season. There were only a handful of outbreaks that really could've hurt a cyclone...if there had been any in the first place.
509. VR46L
Quoting 485. redwagon:


I just learned today you are European... I thought you were Texan all this time :)


LOL ....I Got accused of that once before .. :) I guess its my open style of blogging ....
Quoting 508. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Again, Saharan Air Layer was not anymore abundant than usual this season. There were only a handful of outbreaks that really could've hurt a cyclone...if there had been any in the first place.
But didn't the outbreaks seem a little more stronger than usual? Or maybe it is just me not having enough seasons under my belt.
Quoting 505. krusaadk:


There have been some dicussion about the reliability of this data on Danish blogs. I have heard that the Danish Met Office (DMI)will make a check tomorrow. However I live only some 40 km from Kegnaes which is situated at the Flensburg Fjord in the Baltic Sea quite near the border German/Denmark. But indeed, it was really bad weather for only a few hours this afternoon in the southernmost Denmark.


Welcome! --- another European neighbour is showing up on WU, lol. Well, I'm curious myself whether this reading will be confirmed.
raymonds eyewall is showing very strong signs of rapid dissipation. RD happens easily when the eyewall becomes weaker than the rest of the system itself.

Water temps here have dropped to 73-74 degrees.

Water temps in the northern Gulf of Mexico are surprsingly (at least to me) warm. Still near 80.

42040

42039


Hehehe...
Quoting 510. GTstormChaserCaleb:
But didn't the outbreaks seem a little more stronger than usual? Or maybe it is just me not having enough seasons under my belt.

From my perspective, not really. It seemed like...barring the late July/early August outbreak...most were relatively minor and stayed north of where the waves were emerging. I know The Weather Channel interviewed someone from Colorado State University who said SAL was average to even a little below average.

I think it's going to take a lot of research to find out why this season underperformed. I've messaged Eric Blake, Lixion Avila, Chris Landsea, etc and nobody knows. Avila literally told me he had no idea why it has been so quiet.
Quoting 513. DonnieBwkGA:
Water temps here have dropped to 73-74 degrees.

Water temps in the northern Gulf of Mexico are surprsingly (at least to me) warm. Still near 80.

42040

42039


Keep in mind that is only surface temp...
GFS keeps a Big storm in the north atlantic run after run..
Oops, that was meant for my own blog...
LOL the epitome of the season. Remnants of Chantal should be replaced with Remnants of 2013.

What a BIG clash of Water Vapor over us....

Depth of 26C Isotherm



Quoting 483. DonnieBwkGA:
Models o' doom roundup

GEM at 240 hours



NAVGEM 180 hours



Seems to be just the GEM models--other models develop nothing.


Predicting all fourteen of the past two TC.

By the way I deep sea fish in the Bahamas in mid May and the GFS often
generates unnerving activity down there and south of there which fortunately rarely
verifies.
I think the real mystery is why all the storms stayed weak. We've had 12 storms but none over Cat 1 or below 980 mb. If we had had 12 storms 8 hurricanes and 4 majors we would not call the season quiet.

I'm calling the 2013 season weak not quiet.
Quoting 521. Patrap:
Depth of 26C Isotherm



needs to be 125 feet or greater for best conditions
Quoting 515. TropicalAnalystwx13:

From my perspective, not really. It seemed like...barring the late July/early August outbreak...most were relatively minor and stayed north of where the waves were emerging. I know The Weather Channel interviewed someone from Colorado State University who said SAL was average to even a little below average.

I think it's going to take a lot of research to find out why this season underperformed. I've messaged Eric Blake, Lixion Avila, Chris Landsea, etc and nobody knows. Avila literally told me he had no idea why it has been so quiet.
Its just and anomaly,This season had the perfect conditions but it never use it.Like someone who might go to Harvard but at the end decides to not going and go to a normal university.
Quoting 511. barbamz:


Welcome! --- another European neighbour is showing up on WU, lol. Well, I'm curious myself whether this reading will be confirmed.

There are probably quite a lot of us on here but most people don't post or pulse posts.
Looking at the base of the bloggers window you see that some people have been members for may years.
Amazing videos of the northern European storm on the European news. People being blown down the roads and trees down all over the place.
Quoting 519. GTstormChaserCaleb:
LOL the epitome of the season. Remnants of Chantal should be replaced with Remnants of 2013.

Forgettable season.
Quoting 488. GTstormChaserCaleb:
And what is even more weird is we are not even in an El Nino. Maybe a lack of 850 mb. vorticity in the Atlantic is to blame? While I do think the SAL had something to do with the lack of activity in the MDR that doesn't explain what went wrong in the Caribbean or does it, since TW move across the Atlantic and enter the Caribbean. Do we think that a lack of Cape-Verde season lend itself to a lack of a Caribbean season?
Think about '05. Almost everything blew up in the CAR because the rest of the MDR was not very welcoming. So that in and of itself can't be the answer. Some thing was working across the entire basin to keep storms suppressed. Some of the same waves that couldn't get their acts together in the ATL crossed the isthmus and almost immediately became named storms.
What was that TD that looked like a hurricane in the EPAC? It eventually got named but never became a hurricane I don't believe...
That "TD" looked nicer than anything in the Craplantic so far...

Best Storm Award has to go to Humberto or maybe Gabrielle when she reformed...
Quoting 528. BahaHurican:
Think about '05. Almost everything blew up in the CAR because the rest of the MDR was not very welcoming. So that in and of itself can't be the answer. Some thing was working across the entire basin to keep storms suppressed. Some of the same waves that couldn't get their acts together in the ATL crossed the isthmus and almost immediately became named storms.
One of the hardest words for me to say... I usually slober down my chin.... "Isthmus"
Hey everyone!

Took a few days off WU to play a tennis tournament representing the U, and I won. Whoop!!

Anyways, looks like the main focus for the next dew days will surprisingly be severe weather in the Central US... will keep an eye on that!

I'm back now and all is back to normal for me lol
Quoting 525. allancalderini:
Its just and anomaly,This season had the perfect conditions but it never use it.Like someone who might go to Harvard but at the end decides to not going and go to a normal university.
Not sure about perfect conditions. We had a lot of untimely ULLs.
Quoting 514. GTstormChaserCaleb:


Hehehe...


Using my digital magnifiying glass to inspect that post...

Did you notice the Monserrat Volcano fumes blowing over Martinica?
2013 never had the right Mojo.

Like with dance partners, she or he could be a looker, but with 2 left feet kinda.


The music may be right, but your not gonna win any Cat 3 or higher trophy.

Maybe the 2014 Mojo will have what it takes to make wunderblogger's cringe.

Quoting 528. BahaHurican:
Think about '05. Almost everything blew up in the CAR because the rest of the MDR was not very welcoming. So that in and of itself can't be the answer. Some thing was working across the entire basin to keep storms suppressed. Some of the same waves that couldn't get their acts together in the ATL crossed the isthmus and almost immediately became named storms.


It seemed like in 2005 every strong thunderstorm turned into a storm ..
Quoting 530. PalmBeachWeather:
One of the hardest words for me to say... I usually slober down my chin.... "Isthmus"


There once was a town on an isthmus
where they wanted to celebrate Christmas
They waited for snow
but it never got cold
So they grew red and green hibiscus.
Quoting 532. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Not sure about perfect conditions. We had a lot of untimely ULLs.


This has been the year of ULLs....

Could the deviated forecasts of Models be that they cant take in consideration ULL interaction with Invests?
Quoting 535. whitewabit:


It seemed like in 2005 every strong thunderstorm turned into a storm ..
Very stressful year for me. And thousands of others


One of the old twin mills in Greetsiel (northwestern Germany) was severly damaged by today's storm - it was built 150 years ago and usually was able to bear up to strong winds.


Photo from Wiki.

With that a good night!
The 3 most active Atlantic Hurricane Season:

2005:



1933:



1887:



The 3 least active Atlantic Hurricane Season:

1930:



1890:



1983:



Disclaimer: I chose to leave out 1914 because of WWI.
Quoting 522. georgevandenberghe:


Predicting all fourteen of the past two TC.

By the way I deep sea fish in the Bahamas in mid May and the GFS often
generates unnerving activity down there and south of there which fortunately rarely
verifies.
True. Usually nothing much happens before about the 20th.

Where do you fish, up near Grand Bahama and Abaco, or down near the Exumas?

And welcome to the blog, BTW...
Quoting 531. Thrawst:
Hey everyone!

Took a few days off WU to play a tennis tournament representing the U, and I won. Whoop!!

Anyways, looks like the main focus for the next dew days will surprisingly be severe weather in the Central US... will keep an eye on that!

I'm back now and all is back to normal for me lol
I am not at all surprised by the win ;o) but am pleased to hear about it... that's about the only really decent excuse for not being on the wunderblog.... lol

Still no real activity in the ATL, though; you didn't miss that much...
Quoting 541. GTstormChaserCaleb:
The 3 most active Atlantic Hurricane Season:

2005:



1933:



1887:



The 3 least active Atlantic Hurricane Season:

1930:



1890:



1983:



Disclaimer: I chose to leave out 1914 because of WWI.


Those were before he sattelite era to be fair. But what impact did WWI have on hurricane records?
Note no Cape Verde or east Atlantic storms in 1887. That we know of.
Quoting 460. 1900hurricane:

I believe a location in Denmark saw a wind gust of 193 km/h, or 120 m/hr or 105 kts.

Mainland Denmark 173 km/h, a rig near the Jutland beach with a measurement at 14m 194.4 km/h.
Holland had strongest Oktober gust at 152 km/h. Britain (I heard) and Germany in the 160 km/h range.

One station in Holland 20 mins of hurricane force, hourly average 11 Bft. Those German and Danish places will certainly have had sustained hurricane force winds, out at sea like up to 135-140 km/h.

Third storm this century achieving numbers like this.
Quoting 537. sunlinepr:


This has been the year of ULLs....

Could the deviated forecasts of Models be that they cant take in consideration ULL interaction with Invests?
I remember 2010 been the year of ULL's not this year.
Quoting 495. Andrebrooks:
Guys we need to talk about something serious,all in favor for Super Storm 093 to come back.I know he said nasty things and been down casting every storm this year,but we could at least give him one more chance.I say he's back in.




what? you are you nuts or some in? we dont want Super Storm 093 too come back hes a troll nothing but a troll


no more chs too the trolls
Quoting 546. FunnelVortex:


Those were before he sattelite era to be fair. But what impact did WWI have on hurricane records?
You got to ask SAR about that, he can explain it better.
Quoting 438. barbamz:


Yes, and moreover: a quite small windstorm like "Christian" is hard to predict.

This storm, including its sting jet ( Link ) was modelled by GFS from -5 days. It was perfectly and consistently on the charts by ECMWF (and the fine mesh Dutch model Hirlam that runs inside it) as of -3 days. I passed a warning 'storm force' to my colleaques on Friday afternoon.
There is a man coming out of a turned over truck...
Quoting 436. MPI88:


It's just a bit of wind, it is not even close to a hurricane. No thunderstorms, only a bit of rain.

We had some 100kmh winds, that's maybe 70mph. Most employers won't accept a "can't work because of storm" under these conditions. I cycled to the office today as I always do. Just use common sense and stay away from trees.

Risk perception is entirely different here. We do not understand the American practice of building on the coast, and continuously rebuilding after each storm.

And we do not want to understand :D

Otoh we are not used to this kind of winds with the trees in full leaf. So there are 13 dead and dozens wounded in the region and particularly railways quit on the thing. Nevertheless we who survive go to work yeah.
Updated.

Falling trees have been mortal

557. VR46L
I still want to know , why the blog says it was the met office who named the storm ....
Quoting 508. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Again, Saharan Air Layer was not anymore abundant than usual this season. There were only a handful of outbreaks that really could've hurt a cyclone...if there had been any in the first place.


Some would disagree:

African dust might subdue future storm seasons

Excerpt:

Phil Klotzbach, the Colorado State University climatologist who, along with William Gray, develops seasonal predictions, also thinks African dust is in part responsible for making this year a breeze, so far.

"Unfortunately, there's no nice database we can refer to say, exactly, how much dust was in the air this summer and fall," he said. "But, based on what I've seen, I would say that the Saharan dust outbreaks this year were stronger and penetrated farther south and west than normal."
Quoting 558. nrtiwlnvragn:


Some would disagree:

African dust might subdue future storm seasons

Excerpt:

Phil Klotzbach, the Colorado State University climatologist who, along with William Gray, develops seasonal predictions, also thinks African dust is in part responsible for making this year a breeze, so far.

"Unfortunately, there's no nice database we can refer to say, exactly, how much dust was in the air this summer and fall," he said. "But, based on what I've seen, I would say that the Saharan dust outbreaks this year were stronger and penetrated farther south and west than normal."
:D :D :D
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION VINTA
5:00 AM PhST October 29 2013
============================

The Tropical Depression outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility is expected to enter this morning and will be named “Vinta”.

At 4:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Vinta (1004 hPa) located at 14.5N 135.7E or 1,150 km east of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots.

Additional Information
===========================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 5–7.5 mm per hour (moderate ro occasionally heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression “VINTA” will not yet affect any part of the country.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
561. VR46L
Quoting 558. nrtiwlnvragn:


Some would disagree:

African dust might subdue future storm seasons

Excerpt:

Phil Klotzbach, the Colorado State University climatologist who, along with William Gray, develops seasonal predictions, also thinks African dust is in part responsible for making this year a breeze, so far.

"Unfortunately, there's no nice database we can refer to say, exactly, how much dust was in the air this summer and fall," he said. "But, based on what I've seen, I would say that the Saharan dust outbreaks this year were stronger and penetrated farther south and west than normal."


The only Forecast model that I completely trusted this season was the Tau dust cast LOL




The Atlantic version is unavailable at the moment
I had this conversation with one of my buds from another site who lives in the UK (because I was worried about him).

He said he lives somewhere northwest of London I believe, and his mother went out looking for damage but didn't find much. The storm didn't hit him so bad, it was just gusty winds and rain where he is. I'm glad he is alright. (Although he was hoping for the possibility to get off of college because of this, lol)
563. VR46L
Quoting 562. FunnelVortex:



LOL Your Avi here resembles a hedgehog ! Well a little to my eye ... a sonic fan ?
Quoting 558. nrtiwlnvragn:


Some would disagree:

African dust might subdue future storm seasons

Excerpt:

Phil Klotzbach, the Colorado State University climatologist who, along with William Gray, develops seasonal predictions, also thinks African dust is in part responsible for making this year a breeze, so far.

"Unfortunately, there's no nice database we can refer to say, exactly, how much dust was in the air this summer and fall," he said. "But, based on what I've seen, I would say that the Saharan dust outbreaks this year were stronger and penetrated farther south and west than normal."

We'll just have to agree to disagree. There has been a lot of dry, sinking air across the Atlantic (as Brian McNoldy pointed out in this great article), but that doesn't inherently mean there was a lot of SAL. As quoted in that article though, there's no SAL database to compare years to.
Dry stable air in the mid layers. I think SAL was an issue at times in the far eastern atl, but I don't think that's what affected storms in the central and western atl. It was strange how many systems with seemingly stable upper conditions, we would see the system decouple and never recover. It seemed the mid level vortex would simply stray another direction and the lower vortex would follow on as it should. I haven't been able to understand how exactly, but this seemed to be the case time in and out and certainly seemed prevalent to me. SAL just didn't look any worse on maps than seasons past. It was simply stable air that affected our season and whether it was influenced by the SAL or air from SA, I don't think anyone is certain of that yet. It will be interesting in a year or less when we start hearing conclusions regarding the lack of developed system in the atl. It was interesting, but also similar to an extent to '11 and '12.
Quoting 563. VR46L:



LOL Your Avi here resembles a hedgehog ! Well a little to my eye ... a sonic fan ?


Yes, and yes.

There are many other things you probably don't know about me. lol.
Hey, I found an opening at the NWS, this one at the WFO in Juneau, Alaska: NOAA Job Openings

Pretty cool I think. Hopefully one will open up for me in a few years.
Lowest ACE per hurricane season, going back to 1950:

10) 1968 - 35
9) 1970 - 34
8) 1987 - 34
7) 1991 - 34
6) 1994 - 32
5) 2013 - 30 (tentative)
4) 1982 - 29
3) 1972 - 28
2) 1977 - 25
1) 1983 - 17

Also of note - 2013 is currently tied with 1982 for least number of hurricanes in the satellite era (2).

Quoting 542. BahaHurican:
True. Usually nothing much happens before about the 20th.

Where do you fish, up near Grand Bahama and Abaco, or down near the Exumas?

And welcome to the blog, BTW...


I've got a house in Guana Cay Abaco...best fishing May thru June...No boats out off the north end and the ledge is only 3 miles out drops down to a 1,000 feet...it's so beautiful there...the bottom fishing is awesome to monster snapper...grouper...sharks...jacks the size of a small boat...
Quoting 552. cRRKampen:

This storm, including its sting jet ( Link ) was modelled by GFS from -5 days. It was perfectly and consistently on the charts by ECMWF (and the fine mesh Dutch model Hirlam that runs inside it) as of -3 days. I passed a warning 'storm force' to my colleaques on Friday afternoon.

It was indeed predicted, but the location and timing of it was off. Model forecasts generally developed the strongest winds in association with the likely sting jet much further west than what actually occurred. Instead of developing over the Atlantic Ocean and bringing the strongest winds along either side of the English Channel, the secondary low bombed while traversing the English Channel and brought the worst to locations along the southeastern North Sea, places such as The Netherlands, NW Germany, and Denmark.



571. VR46L
Quoting 566. FunnelVortex:


Yes, and yes.

There are many other things you probably don't know about me. lol.


I don't know much about you ..... But I like quite alot of your posts :)
Uh Oh. Dr. Greg Forbes has a TORCON of 4 for western TN/ western KY and a TORCON of 3 for other parts of the Midwest on Halloween.
Quoting 542. BahaHurican:
True. Usually nothing much happens before about the 20th.

Where do you fish, up near Grand Bahama and Abaco, or down near the Exumas?

And welcome to the blog, BTW...

I fish at Stella Maris off of Long Island Bahamas. A tradition with work associates for the past twenty years.
Quoting 560. HadesGodWyvern:
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION VINTA
5:00 AM PhST October 29 2013
============================

The Tropical Depression outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility is expected to enter this morning and will be named %u201CVinta%u201D.

At 4:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Vinta (1004 hPa) located at 14.5N 135.7E or 1,150 km east of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots.

Additional Information
===========================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 5%u20137.5 mm per hour (moderate ro occasionally heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression %u201CVINTA%u201D will not yet affect any part of the country.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.



:D :D :D

I knew it could do it!




Quoting 527. allancalderini:
Forgettable season.

Why forget a good mystery?
Atlantic Satellite...

VINIKI

Quoting 571. VR46L:


I don't know much about you ..... But I like quite alot of your posts :)


Thank you.
579. VR46L
Quoting 575. bappit:

Why forget a good mystery?


Its probably a historic and unprecedented season due to lack of severe weather in the Atlantic ... but I wonder if this past weekend is a sign for the coming season ..
Quoting 571. VR46L:


I don't know much about you ..... But I like quite alot of your posts :)


What about me. Same, eh? xD

581. JRRP
Quoting 568. wxgeek723:
Lowest ACE per hurricane season, going back to 1950:

10) 1968 - 35
9) 1970 - 34
8) 1987 - 34
7) 1991 - 34
6) 1994 - 32
5) 2013 - 30 (tentative)
4) 1982 - 29
3) 1972 - 28
2) 1977 - 25
1) 1983 - 17

Also of note - 2013 is currently tied with 1982 for least number of hurricanes in the satellite era (2).

In the year after some of those years featured a Category 5 Hurricane. '69, '88, and '92 to the name most notorious.
i can't find anything in the ATL that seems to want to develop nothing in the GOM or CARIB when are conditions expected to become favorable for development? where is this storm the FIM is predicting supposed to come from?
Quoting 579. VR46L:


Its probably a historic and unprecedented season due to lack of severe weather in the Atlantic ... but I wonder if this past weekend is a sign for the coming season ..


ThatsWhatWeSaidLastYear
Image of the day (5 hours early. LOL)

A rainbow is seen over calm waters. Beautiful image........
Quoting 566. FunnelVortex:


Yes, and yes.

There are many other things you probably don't know about me. lol.
Trust me, you're not the only Sonic fan on here...(wink, wink)
Quoting 581. JRRP:


is the low in the caribbean in that image even the same one the FIM develops and brings to FL as a hurricane?
588. VR46L
Quoting 580. Torito:


What about me. Same, eh? xD



LOL

I know nothing about ya either .. I don't really know many over on WU .. I like your posts too !
Quoting 585. Torito:
Image of the day (5 hours early. LOL)

A rainbow is seen over calm waters. Beautiful image........

It may be beautiful, but it's also fake.
Quoting 586. interstatelover7166:
Trust me, you're not the only Sonic fan on here...(wink, wink)


Yay!
Quoting 430. LargoFl:
something I just dont understand about coastal europe...Here in florida..when the NHC says a hurricane like storm is going to come in..people here stay home,if its a strong storm .....what i see in europe..and i could be wrong..but what i see there is people actually went to work like it is a normal stormy day????..so many killed by falling tree's etc...why?..why were they outside at all I ask?........if the winds were blowing 90-99 mph by me i surely would NOT be caught outside....i just dont understand..

I have been reading back and want to add to this comment.
Of the five killed in The UK, three were actually asleep in their beds.
One 17 year old asleep in a caravan when a tree fell on her and a couple killed when a falling tree fell and set off a gas explosion, blowing up the house.

And as to getting to work... Took my better half four hours to get to work, by train, across London, for a journey that usually takes 50 minutes!
Quoting 589. wxchaser97:
It may be beautiful, but it's also fake.


maybe it is, maybe it isnt. It is awesome, none the less. It is there as an inspiration. :D
Quoting 572. Doppler22:
Uh Oh. Dr. Greg Forbes has a TORCON of 4 for western TN/ western KY and a TORCON of 3 for other parts of the Midwest on Halloween.

The SPC is using some strong wording for Thursday's outlook.

GIVEN A
VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL/DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR...DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME TORNADOES /POTENTIALLY A FEW STRONG/
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
Quoting 588. VR46L:


LOL

I know nothing about ya either .. I don't really know many over on WU .. I like your posts too !


There should be an off-topic blog where we can discuss our interests besides weather. To get to know eatchother better.
Quoting 590. FunnelVortex:


Yay!


Mario. JKJK sonic is cool.

http://www.dep.state.fl.us/central/home/drinkingwater/permitting/rainbow.jp g

The image is a graphic design from the State of Fla.
Quoting 593. Torito:


maybe it is, maybe it isnt. It is awesome, none the less. It is there as an inspiration. :D


It's a 3D render. I know, because I do that sort of stuff.
Quoting 597. Patrap:
http://www.dep.state.fl.us/central/home/drinkingwater/permitting/rainbow.jp g

The image is a graphic design from the State of Fla.


ah well, it still is cool. :)
Quoting 596. Torito:


Mario. JKJK sonic is cool.



We can like both.
World series tied 2-2. Who will win tonight?

$10 on St.Louis...
Quoting 593. Torito:


maybe it is, maybe it isnt. It is awesome, none the less. It is there as an inspiration. :D
Merry Christmas
Quoting 585. Torito:
Image of the day (5 hours early. LOL)

A rainbow is seen over calm waters. Beautiful image........
Merry Christmas!
Quoting 602. Climate175:
Merry Christmas! Merry Christmas!
Quoting 602. Climate175:
Merry Christmas Merry Christmas!


And a happy Halloween.
Quoting 592. Civicane49:


Goodbye Raymond.
Quoting 568. wxgeek723:
Lowest ACE per hurricane season, going back to 1950:

10) 1968 - 35
9) 1970 - 34
8) 1987 - 34
7) 1991 - 34
6) 1994 - 32
5) 2013 - 30 (tentative)
4) 1982 - 29
3) 1972 - 28
2) 1977 - 25
1) 1983 - 17

Also of note - 2013 is currently tied with 1982 for least number of hurricanes in the satellite era (2).


So on the lowest ratings we had:-
1 in the 60s
3 in the 70s,
3 in the 80s,
2 in the 90s,
0 in the 2000s
1 in the 2010s- so far.

Over to Nea when he emerges for an analysis of all this for sure?
Quoting 604. FunnelVortex:


And a happy Halloween.


And a happy new year. MY GOSH HOW RANDOM CAN THIS BLOG GET!

Quoting 604. FunnelVortex:


And a happy Halloween.
Its the most dreadful and scary time of the year!! With bones clacking and clacking.
Quoting 607. Torito:


And a happy new year. MY GOSH HOW RANDOM CAN THIS BLOG GET!

Expect a interesting winter in MD
Quoting 590. FunnelVortex:


Yay!
When you said that, Silver instantly popped into my head. IDK why, but, yeah. :)
Quoting 609. Climate175:
Expect a interesting winter in MD


Yes, 4ft+ of snow on the ground at once here? Who knows, we are overdue for one of those systems.
Quoting 608. Climate175:
Its the most dreadful and scary time of the year!! With bones clacking and clacking.


No, I'm sure the most scary time of the year is probably a grandparent or in-law's birthday.
anyway..



cyclone name 22. Running out of names in this area.. think it's been awhile since the last time the Philippines named 25 "typhoon" systems (2004).
Quoting 613. HadesGodWyvern:
anyway..



cyclone name 22. Running out of names in this area.. think it's been awhile since the last time the Philippines named 25 "typhoon" systems (2004).


sorry for being offtopic, brah. Im sure everyone else is too. :D
it happens, I know. As long as the off-topic is short.
616. JRRP
Quoting MiamiHeat305:


is the low in the caribbean in that image even the same one the FIM develops and brings to FL as a hurricane?

well... i never trust in that model
Quoting 570. 1900hurricane:

It was indeed predicted, but the location and timing of it was off. Model forecasts generally developed the strongest winds in association with the likely sting jet much further west than what actually occurred. Instead of developing over the Atlantic Ocean and bringing the strongest winds along either side of the English Channel, the secondary low bombed while traversing the English Channel and brought the worst to locations along the southeastern North Sea, places such as The Netherlands, NW Germany, and Denmark.




Early days ECMWF put the 'sting' to SW of Ireland, yes. But by Saturday the thing was quite clear (still modelled about 5 hPa too deep as it exited into the North Sea).
While the relevant models were doing well in forecasting a fairly extreme event I do think warnings in Britain and to a lesser degree Holland were too conservative throughout notwithstanding modelling.
Never saw a low, btw, that I would identify as secondary. Just a trough on the core with perhaps a tiny suggestion of a split core on the analysis around 10:00 CET. Textbook vigorous low.
Timing was off a bit, the peak an hour or two earlier in realization.
(double)
I have clues Torito that MD will see an interesting winter. Here are a few clues.
1. Folklore has it a warm November means a severe winter and we could be in the 70s the first few days in November.
2. Hurricane Seasons with the lowest named storms usally mean more snow for us examples, 2002,2006,2009.
3. Goverment Shutdowns tend to lead to snowier winters in MD.
4. We usually get a big snowstorm every 3-4 years and Maryland is overdue.
It looks like Raymond's mid-upper level moisture has begun to be drawn into the trough.

Quoting 619. Climate175:
I have clues Torito that MD will see an interesting winter. Here are a few clues.
1. Folklore has it a warm November means a severe winter and we could be in the 70s the first few days in November.
2. Hurricane Seasons with the lowest named storms usally mean more snow for us examples, 2002,2006,2009.
3. Goverment Shutdowns tend to lead to snowier winters in MD.
4. We usually get a big snowstorm every 3-4 years and Maryland is overdue.


If #3 is indeed true, we are in a lot of trouble in the next few years. 0.0
Quoting 610. interstatelover7166:
When you said that, Silver instantly popped into my head. IDK why, but, yeah. :)



ITS NO USE!


Why do I think of the 2013 season when I hear that line now?
Quoting 614. Torito:


sorry for being offtopic, brah. Im sure everyone else is too. :D

Thunderstorm coming up to SW of Holland, flashes to be seen, this still around the back of St Jude/nameless/Christian/Simone is on topic then :)
Quoting 536. DonnieBwkGA:


There once was a town on an isthmus
where they wanted to celebrate Christmas
They waited for snow
but it never got cold
So they grew red and green hibiscus.
I remember when it snowed in Naples. Ma said it's snowing, and we said in unison "YEAH RIGHT". You are not going to pull the wool over our eyes. Then we walked outside and fuzzy white stuff was all over the tangelo tree. The tangelos and the fruit were fine. We could not even gather enough of the stuff to make a dirty snowball because it warmed up by 10:00 AM, but it did snow, and I would not have believed it if she did not taunt us outside.
Quoting 620. 1900hurricane:
It looks like Raymond's mid-upper level moisture has begun to be drawn into the trough.


And you're bouncing up and down in your chair in excitement. :)
Quoting 625. TropicalAnalystwx13:

And you're bouncing up and down in your chair in excitement. :)


Lets put that on wikipedia just to see how fast it goes away.....


^-^
Link
627. JRRP
Quoting Torito:
World series tied 2-2. Who will win tonight?

$10 on St.Louis...

$50 Boston
Quoting 627. JRRP:

$50 Boston


>:( $103 St. Louis.





Lol.^
how do you paste an image on here ?
Quoting 617. cRRKampen:

Early days ECMWF put the 'sting' to SW of Ireland, yes. But by Saturday the thing was quite clear (still modelled about 5 hPa to low as it exited into the North Sea).
While the relevant models were doing well in forecasting a fairly extreme event I do think warnings in Britain en to a lesser degree Holland were too conservative throughout notwithstanding modelling.
Never saw a low, btw, that I would identify as secondary. Just a trough on the core with perhaps a tiny suggestion of a split core on the analysis around 10:00 CET. Textbook vigorous low.

I identified the low that bombed out as the secondary low, with the primary low being the occlusion remaining north of Scotland. In this case, primary and secondary is merely a designation referencing the order of formation of the lows, as the low I designated secondary is the one that featured the probably sting jet and caused the damage.



Quoting 629. Climate175:
how do you paste an image on here ?


when you write a comment on here, above the box where you write in text, there are buttons named Bold,italic,link,image.

click image and then put the url of the image into the box that pops up.
Quoting 629. Climate175:
how do you paste an image on here ?


Right click on image. Click "copy image URL" and then click the comment box that says "image" and paste the URL in there.
Quoting 632. FunnelVortex:


Right click on image. Click "copy image URL" and then click the comment box that says "image" and paste the URL in there.


*Ninja'd the post. .-.
Quoting 625. TropicalAnalystwx13:

And you're bouncing up and down in your chair in excitement. :)

Little bit. :P
Quoting 634. Climate175:
Cross your fingers boys and girls
Quoting 634. Climate175:



Yes, like that. :P
We use probabilities in weather all the time! But do we understand them?

If the world series is tied at 2 apiece and St. Louis has a 60% chance of winning at home and Boston has a 60% chance of winning at home then what is the probability for each team to win the series?

Don't forget to account for the probability of each team winning the next two games in a row and omitting a 7th game.

Show your work :)
Quoting 639. Climate175:


Now just move that a few hundred miles more to the northwest. It's mine!
Quoting 639. Climate175:
Philly, Baltimore, and Washington DC are getting dumped with snow.
For my winter lovers.




Climate175 posting old radars is fine but posting false information on Master's blog like in comment 641 can get you into trouble.
Quoting 639. Climate175:
Quoting 640. FunnelVortex:


Now just move that a few hundred miles more to the northwest. It's mine!
Quoting 642. GTstormChaserCaleb:
For my winter lovers.





What about us here in Wisconsin? I want a couple good sub 999 lows. We usually get one or two per winter.
Quoting 643. BaltimoreBrian:
Climate175 posting old radars is fine but posting false information on Master's blog can get you into trouble.
Im just putting a caption of what the newscasters said what was going on that day.Sorry
Quoting 639. Climate175:
*Sees radar loop in Washington DC area...*WHOOOAAA!!!* runs for the window then *hey wait a minute*... *oh :( * I need to get more sleep y'all.
Quoting 642. GTstormChaserCaleb:
For my winter lovers.




Could that be the pattern hopefully for this year?
Quoting 619. Climate175:
I have clues Torito that MD will see an interesting winter. Here are a few clues.
1. Folklore has it a warm November means a severe winter and we could be in the 70s the first few days in November.
2. Hurricane Seasons with the lowest named storms usally mean more snow for us examples, 2002,2006,2009.
3. Goverment Shutdowns tend to lead to snowier winters in MD.
4. We usually get a big snowstorm every 3-4 years and Maryland is overdue.
I'm buying it. Your points are valid.
Quoting 645. FunnelVortex:


What about us here in Wisconsin? I want a couple good sub 999 lows. We usually get one or two per winter.
Quoting 647. Tornado6042008X:

*Sees radar loop in Washington DC area...*WHOOOAAA!!!* runs for the window then *hey wait a minute*... *oh :( *
Sorry lol
Quoting 639. Climate175:


That one was bad. Got almost 2 feet from it!
Quoting 650. GTstormChaserCaleb:


Clippers are okay, but I'm looking for a deeper low that comes up from the plains or out of the Rockies.
Quoting 646. Climate175:
Im just putting a caption of what the newscasters said what was going on that day.Sorry


It's cool. Just change it and you'll be fine.
Quoting 621. Torito:


If #3 is indeed true, we are in a lot of trouble in the next few years. 0.0
No, Congress will replace all the turncoats in 2014. There will be no bad bill passed, or even presented after midterms.
Quoting 652. Hurricane614:


That one was bad. Got almost 2 feet from it!
Quoting 656. Climate175:
Of course being from FL. I wouldn't mind seeing something like this again.

Quoting 651. Climate175:
Sorry lol
I did get 32 inches of snow from that storm in Herndon, VA. Just amazing. But I never thought that I would actually find myself tired of snow as a snow lover.

Of course this was after we had already gotten a big December 18-19, 2009 storm dumping nearly 2 feet of snow on me then.
Classic! And you all thought FL. doesn't get cold. :D

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON OCT 28 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
RECENTLY-DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND...LOCATED SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
LATER THIS WEEK WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
Quoting 659. Tornado6042008X:

I got 32 inches of snow from that storm in Herndon, VA. Just amazing. But I never thought that I would actually find myself tired of snow as a snow lover.
Of course this was after we had already gotten a big December 18-19, 2009 storm dumping nearly 2 feet of snow on me then.
Now this winter who knows what snow we will get
Quoting 660. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Classic! And you all thought FL. doesn't get cold. :D

Farmers Almanac is predicting some good chills down there in January.
Quoting 639. Climate175:

I remember there were back to back storms in February for me. After both of them I had around 45" of snow. That was the best time of my life XD

Feb 5-6 and then Feb 9-10
DECEMBER 2013
1st-3rd. Clearing, very cold.
4th-7th. Generally fair, followed by snow showers and scattered flurries.
8th-11th. Fair.
12th-15th. Increasing cloudiness, cold.
16th-19th. Major coastal storm with strong winds and heavy precipitation.
20th-23rd. Dry and tranquil.
24th-27th. Mild air overruns cold air, producing widespread wintry precipitation in time for Christmas.
28th-31st. Clear, turning colder.
JANUARY 2014
1st-3rd. Coastal system brings snow, rain for New England, extending into Mid-Atlantic region. Rain/sleet/snow for Mummers marching in Philly.
4th-7th. Unsettled.
8th-11th. Showers coastal locations rain and wet snow.
12th-15th. Storm moves out of Gulf of Mexico with moderate amounts of rain and snow. Turning very cold.
16th-19th. More rain, snow.
20th-23rd. Clear, cold.
24th-27th. Turning even colder.
28th-31st. Chance of snow.
FEBRUARY 2014
1st-3rd. Intense storm, heavy rain, snow, strong winds. This could seriously impact Super Bowl XLVIII on Feb. 2, which will be played for the 1st time at a cold weather site (New Jersey's MetLife Stadium).
4th-7th. A quiet spell, but unsettled weather returns by 7th.
8th-11th. Coastal snowstorm, cold.
12th-15th. Another storm moves along Appalachian Mountains: wintry mix. Flooding many coastal localities due to heavy rain.
16th-19th. Light snow/flurries.
20th-23rd. Rain, snow New England FROM FARMERS ALMANAC
Quoting 660. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Classic! And you all thought FL. doesn't get cold. :D



Bad for the oranges.
While the Atlantic has underperformed when compared to seasonal predictions, the East Pacific has overperformed (at least the number of tropical storms have). The 18z GFS indicates the development of "Sonia", storm number eighteen in the basin.

Also here is the Winter Outlook
Quoting 663. Climate175:
Farmers Almanac is predicting some good chills down there in January.
It would be crazy to see Gulf effect snow along the West Coast of FL. Similar to what Buffalo gets from lake effect snow. It would be fun to see everyone out of school throwing snowballs around and making snow man. Gosh I'm such a wishcaster, lol.
I'll wait until after the winter solstice to follow White Christmas forecasts. Hiding the solution to see if Astro can solve.

2013 White Christmas?

Quoting 660. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Classic! And you all thought FL. doesn't get cold. :D


I remember that day, I left davie around 1-2 p.m. and could see my breath in my heaterless truck the whole ride home to western Lake Worth. I don't remeber it leaving the fourties that day. brutal for south florida.
Quoting 671. GeoffreyWPB:
2013 White Christmas?

Hmm Mid-Atlantic has no snow hmm..
How many remember this blog Link

Colder in Florida than Alaska and Greenland

The sharp kink in the jet stream has brought record warm temperatures to a few stations in Alaska and the Pacific Northwest this week, making much of coastal Alaska warmer than Florida. Cold Bay, Alaska, set a record high yesterday of 47°F, after recording a low temperature of 30°F. This made Cold Bay warmer than Pensacola, Florida, which had a high of 47°F and a low of 24°F. In fact, most of Florida--including Jacksonville, Tampa, Melbourne, and Tallahassee--recorded lows at or below the 27°F low recorded in Anchorage, Alaska yesterday. The jet stream kink has also brought temperatures more than 30°F above average to Greenland. The temperature in Narsarsuaq, Greenland at 10am EST today was 46°F, far warmer than most of Florida.



Record Report

Statement as of 8:04 am EST on January 11, 2010

... Record low temperature set at Tallahassee...

A record low temperature of 14 degrees was set at Tallahassee this
morning. This breaks the previous record of 15 degrees set in 1982.

Record Report

Statement as of 7:21 am EST on January 11, 2010

... Record low temperature set at West Palm Beach...

a record low temperature of 33 degrees was set at West Palm Beach today.
This breaks the old record of 34 set in 1927.

Thank You Ike for posting this.
FWIW, there are genuine $3 bills in the Bahamas. Though the 15 cent piece is now only a curiosity piece.





With 2 of these you can buy a Frappuccino at a local Starbucks and use the free internet to check in on Wunderground... :o)
Quoting 665. Climate175:
DECEMBER 2013
1st-3rd. Clearing, very cold.
4th-7th. Generally fair, followed by snow showers and scattered flurries.
8th-11th. Fair.
12th-15th. Increasing cloudiness, cold.
16th-19th. Major coastal storm with strong winds and heavy precipitation.
20th-23rd. Dry and tranquil.
24th-27th. Mild air overruns cold air, producing widespread wintry precipitation in time for Christmas.
28th-31st. Clear, turning colder.
JANUARY 2014
1st-3rd. Coastal system brings snow, rain for New England, extending into Mid-Atlantic region. Rain/sleet/snow for Mummers marching in Philly.
4th-7th. Unsettled.
8th-11th. Showers coastal locations rain and wet snow.
12th-15th. Storm moves out of Gulf of Mexico with moderate amounts of rain and snow. Turning very cold.
16th-19th. More rain, snow.
20th-23rd. Clear, cold.
24th-27th. Turning even colder.
28th-31st. Chance of snow.
FEBRUARY 2014
1st-3rd. Intense storm, heavy rain, snow, strong winds. This could seriously impact Super Bowl XLVIII on Feb. 2, which will be played for the 1st time at a cold weather site (New Jersey's MetLife Stadium).
4th-7th. A quiet spell, but unsettled weather returns by 7th.
8th-11th. Coastal snowstorm, cold.
12th-15th. Another storm moves along Appalachian Mountains: wintry mix. Flooding many coastal localities due to heavy rain.
16th-19th. Light snow/flurries.
20th-23rd. Rain, snow New England FROM FARMERS ALMANAC
Can you also please provide horoscopes for everyone?
Quoting 672. kingcane:

I remember that day, I left davie around 1-2 p.m. and could see my breath in my heaterless truck the whole ride home to western Lake Worth. I don't remeber it leaving the fourties that day. brutal for south florida.
Oh trust me when I was on break from work that night I ran outside to see what was going on. And what did you know Ice pellets were falling from the sky and hitting against the windshield of my car. I ran back inside to tell everyone and they all dropped what they were doing to come witness what was happening. We got the sleet here in Pinellas County, some places around the Tampa Bay area I think it was Spring Hill or Zephryhills observed actual snow falling.
Quoting 671. GeoffreyWPB:
2013 White Christmas?



Probable is not good enough for me. Never experienced a white Christmas.
Quoting 671. GeoffreyWPB:
2013 White Christmas?

Talk about fantasy-land forecast... lol...
Quoting 677. Neapolitan:
Can you also please provide horoscopes for everyone?
Why ?
Quoting 681. Climate175:
Why ?
You must be new here....


LOL...


Welcome to the WUnderground... ;o)

Quoting 683. BahaHurican:
You must be new here....

Yes i am, well i read the commments even when i didn't make an account after i read Jeff Masters blogs and i know about Grothar and how he would also be the blob watcher and Superstorm03 which is hopefully history..
Quoting 641. Climate175:
Philly, Baltimore, and Washington DC are getting dumped with snow.
You should put this line with the date in your post with the radar.... the modify button under your original post should work.

That'll save some of us the whiplash from the double-take.... lol...
BRB
Quoting 683. BahaHurican:
You must be new here....


LOL...


Welcome to the WUnderground... ;o)

yeah laugh all you want but i was here since july, reading the blogs and comments and Chantal , Dorian, Erin , all made this blog go crazy i know.
Quoting 685. BahaHurican:
You should put this line with the date in your post with the radar.... the modify button under your original post should work.

That'll save some of us the whiplash from the double-take.... lol...
...
Quoting 681. Climate175:
Why ?

That was sarcasm.
Quoting 687. Climate175:
yeah laugh all you want but i was here since july, reading the blogs and comments and Chantal , Dorian, Erin , all made this blog go crazy i know.
Quoting 685. BahaHurican:
You should put this line with the date in your post with the radar.... the modify button under your original post should work.

That'll save some of us the whiplash from the double-take.... lol...
Just be a little polite please no need to laugh.
Quoting 689. TropicalAnalystwx13:

That was sarcasm.
I know im just asking a question and trying to tell some folks be polite.
Quoting 691. Climate175:
I know im just asking a question and trying to tell some folks be polite. I don't like how i'm being taken as a joke so i will leave before things go downhill , i was just trying to show what the farmers almanac says. I would show you some proof if you would let me.
Quoting 690. Climate175:
Just be a little polite please no need to laugh.


Keep posting climate..I personally post the almanac as well..it has been right and wrong as most bloggers on here as well..some people like to feel inferior by putting others down..comes with the blog sometimes..
Here lies the 2013 hurricane season..
Quoting 694. washingtonian115:
Here lies the 2013 hurricane season..
I hope the 2013 winter season is not as inactive or I do not know what I will do with myself. May have to find a new field of study all together or move to Japan or somewhere where the weather is active.
Has anyone been spamming the comment section lately?
Quoting 671. GeoffreyWPB:
2013 White Christmas?


I do not like that map so I will ignore it lol. Who knows, maybe a storm will come along and give us (Mid-Atlantic) some snow. I think it was two years ago that I was going to someone elses house on Christmas Eve and it was snowing pretty hard, almost got stuck once. :p
Farmers’ Almanac predicted Hurricane Andrew in 1992, as noted by then Florida Governor Lawton Chiles, Jr., on Larry King Live.
• Farmers’ Almanac predicted the Blizzard of 1996; a storm paralyzed much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on January 7 and 8 of that year. Between 1 and 2 feet of snow accumulated throughout the region, leaving 100 people dead. CBS News contacted us that week for our “secret formula,” which remains a secret even today.
Yeah i knows the Farmers Almanac even said to ignore the people who make fun of you because of what they say but we will see.
Quoting 693. ncstorm:


Keep posting climate..I personally post the almanac as well..it has been right and wrong as most bloggers on here as well..some people like to feel inferior but putting others down..comes with the blog sometimes..
Quoting 695. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I hope the 2013 winter season is not as inactive or I do not know what I will do with myself. May have to find a new field of study all together or move to Japan or somewhere where the weather is active.
What I've been doing GT is re-reading my old books,doing activities I thought I would have never liked (such as canoeing) and of course spending time with the fam.
Quoting 667. TropicalAnalystwx13:
While the Atlantic has underperformed when compared to seasonal predictions, the East Pacific has overperformed (at least the number of tropical storms have). The 18z GFS indicates the development of "Sonia", storm number eighteen in the basin.



Aye. That would be the first usage of the name since 1983.
Then I apologize for being here then and i guess i will go take some time out then.
Frank Strait Fan Club
New vlog! http://t.co/le7Y2B4zz8 Long, but lots to talk about ... possible #floods, #tornadoes, #Raymond, maybe even #Melissa in a week.
Houston-Galveston NWS office discussion:

THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG AT 40-50KTS. THIS WILL PROVIDE A GOOD STREAM OF MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTHWARD. LOOKING AT CURRENT GOES SOUNDER SATELLITE IMAGERY OF PRECIP WATER...VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS OVER NW CARIBBEAN. MODELS ADVECT THIS AIRMASS WEST INTO THE CAMPECHE AND THEN NORTHWARD INTO TX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS SUCH...PERCIP WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2-2.3 INCHES BY THUR MORNING. THESE VALUES ARE NEAR THE MAX PW VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...CERTAINLY IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE OR 2 STANDARD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. THUS A BUNCH OF MOISTURE AND A BUNCH OF LIFT FROM JET DYNAMICS AND SLOW MOVING FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA THUR EQUALS A VERY FAVORABLE SET UP FOR HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY WED NIGHT INTO THUR.

So a trough comes down and draws moisture out of the NW Carribean.
Quoting 668. Climate175:
Also here is the Winter Outlook

As someone else here asked, what is the difference between "biting cold", "bitterly cold", and "piercing cold?"
Quoting 699. washingtonian115:
What I've been doing GT is re-reading my old books,doing activities I thought I would have never liked (such as canoeing) and of course spending time with the fam.


Hell, I watch anime to pass the time. And nerd out on video games. Because I definitely fit that stereotype. ;)
I heard someone say that huge storms hitting Europe like the St. Jude storm right now are a sign of a strong positive NAO. Is that correct?
11F is cold,and I hope it never gets dat Low here ever again.
Quoting 701. Climate175:
Then I apologize for being here then and i guess i will go take some time out then.


'Sokay, it's just... Farmer's Almanac is not a particularly reliable source for disseminating weather information. My dad uses them every year, and I can't recall how many times they've predicted a hurricane strike on the Gulf Coast during X month only to have it fail to materialize. It can be fun to entertain those ideas, but they're really just energetic fantasies.
Quoting 707. Patrap:
11F is cold,and I hope it never gets dat Low here ever again.


Sorry bud, but I disagree. I've only ever experienced a low of about 18F. Would love to go to 10F or lower at least once in my lifetime. :)
Quoting 705. KoritheMan:


Hell, I watch anime to pass the time. And nerd out on video games. Because I definitely fit that stereotype. ;)

XD Nice to see a fellow video gamer :p
Quoting 706. Doppler22:
I heard someone say that huge storms hitting Europe like the St. Jude storm right now are a sign of a strong positive NAO. Is that correct?


I believe the going theory is that a positive NAO tends to feature a much stronger Bermuda/Azores ridge, but it is also not as westward-extending as during the negative phase. This allows the westerlies to funnel mid-latitude cyclones toward western Europe more easily.
Quoting 704. Birthmark:

As someone else here asked, what is the difference between "biting cold", "bitterly cold", and "piercing cold?"
Bitting cold is when it feels like someone is biting you,piercing cold feels like your skin is being..well pierced and bitterly cold is when the temperatures are being plain old down right cold (no pun intended) and nasty.
I'm mo a Speed Racer type I guess.

Or His sidekick Spritle as well.
Quoting 708. KoritheMan:


'Sokay, it's just... Farmer's Almanac is not a particularly reliable source for disseminating weather information. My dad uses them every year, and I can't recall how many times they've predicted a hurricane strike on the Gulf Coast during X month only to have it fail to materialize. It can be fun to entertain those ideas, but they're really just energetic fantasies.
The day will come..
Quoting 709. KoritheMan:


Sorry bud, but I disagree. I've only ever experienced a low of about 18F. Would love to go to 10F or lower at least once in my lifetime. :)


I suggest a Spring in Tromso, Norway.

Above the Arctic Circle.

Bring a coat and gloves.

Grothar and I was there in Spring 84, but we didn't know each other till we met here a few years back. Itsa small Planet ya now.
Quoting 709. KoritheMan:


Sorry bud, but I disagree. I've only ever experienced a low of about 18F. Would love to go to 10F or lower at least once in my lifetime. :)

So are you busy in January? If Mother Nature cooperates this year(which I doubt she will), then I should see some temps below 10F. In the mean time, I have a low chance of severe weather on Thursday. :/
Quoting 713. Patrap:
I'm mo a Speed Racer type I guess.

Or His sidekick Spritle as well.


I actually used to watch Speed Racer all the time. I was astonished when I found out it was actually anime.
Quoting 716. wxchaser97:

So are you busy in January?


Not really.
nevermind, I have to go back to see exactly what he said
Quoting 705. KoritheMan:


Hell, I watch anime to pass the time. And nerd out on video games. Because I definitely fit that stereotype. ;)
I remember In my 20's I use to watch anime like the one your character is from (street fighter) and other classics.Now that it (anime) has gone down hill these days with a few exceptions and being in my 20's was nearly 20 years ago I'm not really into watching that stuff.But that doesn't mean the child/nerd is still completely gone in me :).
Quoting 690. Climate175:
Just be a little polite please no need to laugh.
Sweetie, if you have been here as long as you say you have, you will know that I am a very cheerful sort, prone to laughing when I am making a joke, or even just when something makes me happy. If you think I'm being mean or cruel or impolite, you are thinking wrong. I meant my welcome sincerely and hope you will take it that way.

My suggestion regarding the whiplash was because of my reaction to the radar you posted in post # 639, which made me do a double-take because at first I thought it was a current radar and I couldn't figure out where the snow had suddenly come from. So the smiley face there was actually me laughing at my own reaction. As Brian noted, you might want to put information about past data like that in the post with the radar so some of us aren't confused by it. Otherwise people might think you are posting false data.

So if you feel I am attacking you, please stop. I'm always glad to see new members who are interested in wx and will post interesting stuff about it.
722. DDR
Good evening
Looks like the south eastern caribbean including Trinidad is in for a wet week,really nice to see normal to above average rains,really makes the dry season water problems that much easier :)
Quoting 716. wxchaser97:

So are you busy in January?
Preach it !
Quoting 715. Patrap:


I suggest a Spring in Tromso, Norway.

Above the Arctic Circle.

Bring a coat and gloves.


How about beach front property in Longyearbaeren in January?
Quoting 724. JohnLonergan:


How about beach front property in Longyearbaeren in January?


I haven't been there but I have been to Ny Alesund. But I had it easy. It was July.
Quoting 708. KoritheMan:


'Sokay, it's just... Farmer's Almanac is not a particularly reliable source for disseminating weather information. My dad uses them every year, and I can't recall how many times they've predicted a hurricane strike on the Gulf Coast during X month only to have it fail to materialize. It can be fun to entertain those ideas, but they're really just energetic fantasies.
Pretty much like just about every other long-range forecast model...
I'm not a big anime fan but I really did like the tv adaptation of Naoki Urasawa's Monster.
Quoting 721. BahaHurican:
Sweetie, if you have been here as long as you say you have, you will know that I am a very cheerful sort, prone to laughing when I am making a joke, or even just when something makes me happy. If you think I'm being mean or cruel or impolite, you are thinking wrong. I meant my welcome sincerely and hope you will take it that way.

My suggestion regarding the whiplash was because of my reaction to the radar you posted in post # 639, which made me do a double-take because at first I thought it was a current radar and I couldn't figure out where the snow had suddenly come from. So the smiley face there was actually me laughing at my own reaction. As Brian noted, you might want to put information about past data like that in the post with the radar so some of us aren't confused by it. Otherwise people might think you are posting false data.

So if you feel I am attacking you, please stop. I'm always glad to see new members who are interested in wx and will post interesting stuff about it.
Sure I am just gonna put the past behind me and going to go to the future where nobody can find me...
Quoting 726. BahaHurican:
Pretty much like just about every other long-range forecast model...


Yep.
Quoting 728. Climate175:
Sure I am just gonna put the past behind me and going to go to the future where nobody can find me.
Don't go back to the future!!!!

lol

[Just watched the original of this movie again for the first time in years...]
Geez... u know the blog is really slow when the big Monday night topic is anime and its relationship to wx blogging.... lol
I had this debate with Levi once [about long-range forecasting]. He told me that, as a collective whole, we'll never make progress in long-range forecasting if we don't continually attempt it.

I agree with him in principle, I just know I'm not going to be the one to assist in that. There has been no recent technological or academic advancement that leads me to believe we're anywhere close to making any sort of long-range forecasting progress.

Levi and I are pals, but we don't see eye to eye on everything. :)
The Almanac is anecdotal mostly, and climatology too.

It dosen't take a huge stretch of genius to state like, "A Strong Hurricane may impact the Gulf States the week of August 25th thru Sept 1st", as Id have a purty good chance of verifying on avg.

Or that a Blizzard will hit the Super Bowl Site in February 2014.

Although You may want to check dat date in dee Almanac as its a outdoor Stadium too.

Then get back to us.

Quoting 730. BahaHurican:
Don't go back to the future!!!!

lol

[Just watched the original of this movie again for the first time in years...]
That reminds me but a good scientific fiction movie was Honey I Strunk the Kids!
Quoting 720. washingtonian115:
I remember In my 20's I use to watch anime like the one your character is from (street fighter) and other classics.Now that it (anime) has gone down hill these days with a few exceptions and being in my 20's was nearly 20 years ago I'm not really into watching that stuff.But that doesn't mean the child/nerd is still completely gone in me :).


You tend to sport anime avatars from time to time. :)
climate..the almanac is frowned upon in this establishment (*etrade baby voice) because it denounces those ill fated initials..anyone that tells you they have been great at forecasting during this hurricane season must be really back in the future..
Yeah its not really that accurate but if there is a Blizzard on Superbowl i will be laughing so hard i'll be crying.
Do you have any idea how many times I had to dance to "Domo Arragato,Mr. Roboto" by Styx while in Okinawa in 83?


O Sugiro
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
Taken in Middletown, MD today.
Quoting 735. KoritheMan:


You tend to sport anime avatars from time to time. :)
I get random anime avatars from the net of shows that I don't even have any idea where they came from.But since their so bright and colorful and help me identify my post better I get.The inner nerd is also telling me to get them.lol.
Quoting 730. BahaHurican:
Don't go back to the future!!!!

lol

[Just watched the original of this movie again for the first time in years...]


Quoting 740. washingtonian115:
I get random anime avatars from the net of shows that I don't even have any idea where they came from.But since their so bright and colorful and help me identify my post better I get.The inner nerd is also telling me to get them.lol.

They are better then your clown avatars... (shutters at the thought of them) XD
Quoting 732. KoritheMan:
I had this debate with Levi once [about long-range forecasting]. He told me that, as a collective whole, we'll never make progress in long-range forecasting if we don't continually attempt it.

I agree with him in principle, I just know I'm not going to be the one to assist in that. There has been no recent technological or academic advancement that leads me to believe we're anywhere close to making any sort of long-range forecasting progress.

Levi and I are pals, but we don't see eye to eye on everything. :)
It's the same thing with the seasonal forecasts. I think there's a kind of bulky, cumbersome process of elimination value to doing them, but it's the progress we make that's valuable, much more so than the forecast themselves. Years like '05, '06, and '13 with their bust forecasts give us an opportunity to fine-tune our predictive skills in the long range. But I also agree with you on this; until we improve the technological aspects of our data collection or have an academic breakthrough in our understanding of how and why cyclones work, the season forecasts are not much better than the almanac.

But I agree with Levi that tweaking 10 and 14 day forecasts is one way to work towards that goal.
Quoting 732. KoritheMan:
I had this debate with Levi once [about long-range forecasting]. He told me that, as a collective whole, we'll never make progress in long-range forecasting if we don't continually attempt it.

I agree with him in principle, I just know I'm not going to be the one to assist in that. There has been no recent technological or academic advancement that leads me to believe we're anywhere close to making any sort of long-range forecasting progress.

Levi and I are pals, but we don't see eye to eye on everything. :)
The GFS has lied past Pinocchio so yes everyone cant predict the weather 100% accurately
Quoting 734. Climate175:
That reminds me but a good scientific fiction movie was Honey I Strunk the Kids!
Wow... haven't even thought of that one for years.... lol... I remember the ants certainly looked anatomically correct...
WeatherBrains 405 has Mike Bettes talking about Sandy and the May 31 Tornado that rolled his car and killed Tim Samaras and crew.

Quoting 703. bappit:
Houston-Galveston NWS office discussion:

THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG AT 40-50KTS. THIS WILL PROVIDE A GOOD STREAM OF MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTHWARD. LOOKING AT CURRENT GOES SOUNDER SATELLITE IMAGERY OF PRECIP WATER...VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS OVER NW CARIBBEAN. MODELS ADVECT THIS AIRMASS WEST INTO THE CAMPECHE AND THEN NORTHWARD INTO TX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS SUCH...PERCIP WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2-2.3 INCHES BY THUR MORNING. THESE VALUES ARE NEAR THE MAX PW VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...CERTAINLY IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE OR 2 STANDARD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. THUS A BUNCH OF MOISTURE AND A BUNCH OF LIFT FROM JET DYNAMICS AND SLOW MOVING FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA THUR EQUALS A VERY FAVORABLE SET UP FOR HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY WED NIGHT INTO THUR.

So a trough comes down and draws moisture out of the NW Carribean.

And there is a whole lot of it, to say the least.



With PWs well in excess of 2", it'll be up there with the highest PW airmass that has ever been observed this time of year (I'm using max November PWs because I'm operating under the assumption it better represents the max PWs of very late October than the October chart does).

Hey, Aussie... how do you? What's the situation with the fires?
Oh Stacy at least try to find something we can track before this blog get's out of control..
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, Aussie... how do you? What's the situation with the fires?

I'm going fine, just getting blown away by 85km/h gusts right now from a southerly change. This change is causing thunderstorms just north of Sydney.


The fires are all contained. There is still 50 fires burning around my state. Just need to watch this next burst of heat that is going to come through on Saturday.
Quoting 750. AussieStorm:

I'm going fine, just getting blown away by 85km/h gusts right now from a southerly change.

The fires are all contained. There is still 50 fires burning around my state. Just need to watch this next burst of heat that is going to come through on Saturday.
That sounds better than what was going on. I hope there aren't any new break outs with the next round of super-hot wx...

Little off topic but The Blacklist is coming on now... My new favorite show :p

Its currently 45 degrees outside, warmest temp for 10PM since last week
Raymond

Quoting 747. 1900hurricane:

And there is a whole lot of it, to say the least.



With PWs well in excess of 2", it'll be up there with the highest PW airmass that has ever been observed this time of year (I'm using max November PWs because I'm operating under the assumption it better represents the max PWs of very late October than the October chart does).


Some models have us pushing record PWs for October... on the last day of the month. Switch to the November climatology and the PW records would be broken by 0.1-0.3in. It looks like there could be plenty of moisture available for these next two systems moving across NE Texas/SE Oklahoma/S Arkansas/N Louisiana.
The Forecast for tonight was 68 but it is 67 now at 10:00PM lol
Accuweather really thinks that 45 day forcasts are good wow..
Quoting BahaHurican:
That sounds better than what was going on. I hope there aren't any new break outs with the next round of super-hot wx...



We haven't got to summer yet so....
Quoting 747. 1900hurricane:

And there is a whole lot of it, to say the least.



With PWs well in excess of 2", it'll be up there with the highest PW airmass that has ever been observed this time of year (I'm using max November PWs because I'm operating under the assumption it better represents the max PWs of very late October than the October chart does).



Actual precip expectations for Wed/Thurs just so all over the map. Some models show a huge dump over the lakes, others have it happening just NE of them. Sigh.
Quoting 743. BahaHurican:
It's the same thing with the seasonal forecasts. I think there's a kind of bulky, cumbersome process of elimination value to doing them, but it's the progress we make that's valuable, much more so than the forecast themselves. Years like '05, '06, and '13 with their bust forecasts give us an opportunity to fine-tune our predictive skills in the long range. But I also agree with you on this; until we improve the technological aspects of our data collection or have an academic breakthrough in our understanding of how and why cyclones work, the season forecasts are not much better than the almanac.

But I agree with Levi that tweaking 10 and 14 day forecasts is one way to work towards that goal.


At least he isn't twerking them.
TS Melissa 2007:

Time is going fast! Only 4 days until November starts ! 4 weeks until Thanksgiving and 8 weeks until Christmas!, we are approaching the Holiday Season as well as the end of the Hurricane Season.
Quoting 761. Climate175:
Time is going fast! Only 4 days until November starts ! 4 weeks until Thanksgiving and 8 weeks until Christmas!, we are approaching the Holiday Season as well as the end of the Hurricane Season.


Yep - Christmas lights going up in the 'hood already.

Quoting 760. GTstormChaserCaleb:
TS Melissa 2007:

Have you ever seen tropical systems decouple like this in the Western Pacific before?
Quoting Climate175:
Time is going fast! Only 4 days until November starts ! 4 weeks until Thanksgiving and 8 weeks until Christmas!, we are approaching the Holiday Season as well as the end of the Hurricane Season.

9 weeks till my Holiday to the Philippines for 4 weeks.
Quoting 763. Tornado6042008X:

Have you ever seen tropical systems decouple like this in the Western Pacific before?
Good question. No, but I'm sure tropical systems have decoupled in the WPAC.
Quoting 764. AussieStorm:

9 weeks till my Holiday to the Philippines for 4 weeks.
One hopes the tropical systems will be ready for a break by then....

Quoting 765. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Good question. No, but I'm sure tropical systems have decoupled in the WPAC.
I haven't seen it happen, though. We only watch the exciting ones that make landfall or transition to extra-tropical east of Japan....
Melissa replaced this beast.


Quoting 765. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Good question. No, but I'm sure tropical systems have decoupled in the WPAC.
For some reason I just cannot picture it happening in the Western Pacific.
If I saw a satellite image like that in the western pacific I would wonder whether the satellite is glitching lol.
Quoting BahaHurican:
One hopes the tropical systems will be ready for a break by then....



I hope not. Wouldn't mind joining James Reynolds.
Quoting 764. AussieStorm:

9 weeks till my Holiday to the Philippines for 4 weeks.


Counting down? Hope the weather is good for you.
Quoting 770. KoritheMan:
I don't know why I'm so mesmerized by a decaying tropical storm, but here's my 8th blog post on Raymond. Enjoy.

Because that's how exciting the Epac/Atlantic hurricane seasons have been.
Quoting 758. redwagon:


Actual precip expectations for Wed/Thurs just so all over the map. Some models show a huge dump over the lakes, others have it happening just NE of them. Sigh.

Best lift/dynamics look to be over NETX at the moment, so that'll probably be where the heaviest rain will fall. However, it is still completely possible to get some heavy rainfall totals over the lower Highland Lake drainage with precip backbuilding ahead of the cold front.

Quoting 773. wxchaser97:

Because that's how exciting the Epac/Atlantic hurricane seasons have been.
'Zackly...
Quoting 712. washingtonian115:
Bitting cold is when it feels like someone is biting you,piercing cold feels like your skin is being..well pierced and bitterly cold is when the temperatures are being plain old down right cold (no pun intended) and nasty.


I have spent many a winter month (usually in Feb),above the Artic Circle in Norway, trying to mount exercise air operations at a location called Bardufoss close to Tromso.

Cold to me personally was when the moisture (snot?) in your noise froze and crackled, every drop of moisture in every exhalation froze on your mouth cover.

Cold to me operationally was when rubber "o rings" in hydraulic systems hardened to such an extent that they failed - when undercarriage tires would freeze to the Ice unless aircraft were towed into heated Aircraft Shelters/"Rock Hanger" Pens within 3 minutes.

Mentally - IMHO - lack of colour in the landscape used to get me down - even our Jets were painted like Zebras - yet Tromso is a thriving, fun packed city (if you can get past how expensive it is and the smell of fish)

They used to say in Tromso that there were 2 main things to do ( and I mean NO disrespect to any Norwegians)- you could "Indulge in close intimate human activities [heavily censored to avoid being banned - but there is a word beginning with "f" and ending with "ing" that describes this activity] or you could fish - but in the winter you could not fish"

Joking asides, it actually truly made me realize the "hell on earth" that sailors and merchant seamen (including my Grandfather) underwent, with very basic/almost no existent artic kit, during WW II Artic Convoys to resupply Russia.

Whilst not for me - I have a huge respect for those that actually choose to live above the Artic Circle wherever it may be - I will stick with my current location in the Cayman Islands!!
Quoting 773. wxchaser97:

Because that's how exciting the Epac/Atlantic hurricane seasons have been.
In order from most exciting to least exciting.

1) WPAC
2) Indian Ocean
3) EPAC
4) CPAC
5) SPAC/Australian even though it didn't start yet
6) Atlantic

:P
October 28, 2012, 11pm EDT: Hurricane Sandy's gale (34kt ) diameter expands to an astonishing 930 miles, making it the largest Atlantic hurricane ever observed. It would later expand to 945 miles as the system reached its secondary peak as a Category 2 hurricane early on October 29, 2012.

The previous record was Igor's gale diameter of 920 miles.


TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 PM PDT MON OCT 28 2013

RAYMOND IS SHOWING THE AFFECTS OF 25-30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS DECREASED DURING THE
EVENING...WITH THE REMAINING CONVECTION NOW IN A RAGGED BAND ABOUT
50-80 N MI FROM THE CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF FINAL-T AND
CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...AS WELL AS CONTINUITY
FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/5. RAYMOND IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN
END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A LARGE
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE ADJACENT
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. WHILE RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR APART...
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO KEEP RAYMOND
MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE FORWARD SPEED...WITH THE ECMWF AND
GFS AGAIN BEING FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE NEW FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND REMAINS SLOWER THAN THE
ECMWF AND GFS.

THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES RAYMOND INTO INCREASING SHEAR...OVER COLDER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND INTO DRIER AIR. THE CYCLONE IS THUS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND
TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE REMNANTS DISSIPATING BY 96 HOURS...AND THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 17.2N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 17.9N 116.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 18.9N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 19.6N 115.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 20.1N 114.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/0000Z 20.5N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


CaribBoy look!
781. MZT
Sandy was an amazing size. I remember scouting weather forecasts in the midwest. Stations in Wisconsin and Missouri were describing the outlying effects of Sandy.
Quoting 774. 1900hurricane:

Best lift/dynamics look to be over NETX at the moment, so that'll probably be where the heaviest rain will fall. However, it is still completely possible to get some heavy rainfall totals over the lower Highland Lake drainage with precip backbuilding ahead of the cold front.



Although I certainly am not not complaining, I'm on-my-knees thankful for every tiny drop Manuel, Raymond, Ingrid and others have contributed to relieving our disaster. I love you EPAC!
Quoting 669. GTstormChaserCaleb:
It would be crazy to see Gulf effect snow along the West Coast of FL. Similar to what Buffalo gets from lake effect snow. It would be fun to see everyone out of school throwing snowballs around and making snow man. Gosh I'm such a wishcaster, lol.


Gulf effect snow may be extremely rare, but it has happened before!

The main reason is the gulf is an over-moderating body of water. If the gulf was a large lake to our west with the rest of the gulf landmass, it might still be rare but it would happen more often. A rare deep gulf low could even trigger heavy snow off the gulf.

The ultimate FL snow event would be a deep low like the 1993 super storm driving through the gulf in January with an arctic air mass being drawn down behind it with a substantial snow pack across the northern half of the U.S.

Such an event would be weird and rare, but not impossible. I suspect something of this nature could even allow for heavy snow on the west coast of Florida causing utter chaos.
Quoting 761. Climate175:
Time is going fast! Only 4 days until November starts ! 4 weeks until Thanksgiving and 8 weeks until Christmas!, we are approaching the Holiday Season as well as the end of the Hurricane Season.


There was a hurricane season?
WOW Levi and his website was just mentions on Weatherbrains. Way to go Levi!!!
Quoting 774. 1900hurricane:

Best lift/dynamics look to be over NETX at the moment, so that'll probably be where the heaviest rain will fall. However, it is still completely possible to get some heavy rainfall totals over the lower Highland Lake drainage with precip backbuilding ahead of the cold front.

C'mon, If you are a true Texas patriot, you will support all rain in your country.Even Moscow.
Nuclear Event in United Kingdom on Monday, 28 October, 2013 at 18:01 (06:01 PM) UTC.
Description
A nuclear power station automatically shut down its reactors after debris blown by hurricane-strength winds fell onto its power lines and led to a loss of supply. It could be up to a week before the two units at Dungeness B plant in Kent - one of Britain's nine nuclear power stations - are up and running again. But a spokeswoman for EDF Energy, which runs the site, said she hoped energy would be restored much sooner and that the public should "absolutely not" be concerned by the shut-down. The two units shut down safely and diesel generators within the site were providing power for essential systems to continue to operate, Sue Fletcher of EDF said. "This is an issue caused by the unusual weather, which led to a loss of power like many of the homes in the surrounding area," Ms Fletcher said. "We share the discomfort of people locally." The plant has the capacity to produce 1040 megawatts of energy, providing power for some 1.5 million homes. More than 200,000 homes across the country have experienced a loss of power because of what has been dubbed 'St Jude's' storm. Martin Pearson, station director at Dungeness B, added: "This is a scenario we are well prepared for and we quickly responded calmly and professionally to the loss of supply. "The reactors are safely shutdown and National Grid staff are now working to restore the supply and once that is done we'll bring both units back on line."
Quoting 785. AussieStorm:
WOW Levi and his website was just mentions on Weatherbrains. Way to go Levi!!!


What episode? I only see October 21st not today
Quoting 789. BaltimoreBrian:


What episode? I only see October 21st not today

The show is just now concluding.
I just found it Cody. I'm bookmarking it. Thanks. Who mentioned Levi, btw?
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


What episode? I only see October 21st not today


Link

He was mentioned by Bill Murray as his pick of the week and showed GEM model run

793. JRRP
Quoting Torito:


>:( $103 St. Louis.





Lol.^

Red Sox win
Quoting 780. Gearsts:
CaribBoy look!


As I said earlier today : I've been waiting for a real good weather event for months... Models did show promising weather several times this year, but it never materialized lol. The dry air won the game each time...

The wettest day of the year was last monday, when 2 inches fell. Honestly, that's pathetic.

Anyway here is the latest GFS regarding the rainfall accumulation potential... well... lol I call that GHOST RAIN



Quoting KoritheMan:


There was a hurricane season?
It seems that everything that even tried to develop, its been destroy by a mysterious force that not even experts like Dr.Gray, Dr. Masters, and others can't even decipher, judging by their remarks. Interesting Strange, indeed, to say the least....
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Melissa replaced this beast.

Nah...! Not this year...!!
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION VINTA
11:00 AM PhST October 29 2013
============================

Tropical Depression "VINTA" has slightly intensified as it continues to move west northwestward over the Philippine Sea

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Vinta (1000 hPa) located at 15.3N 134.2E or 1,000 km east of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 13 knots.

Additional Information
===========================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-7.5 mm per hour (moderate to occasionally heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression "VINTA" will not yet affect any part of the country.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Here lies the 2013 hurricane season..
You mean RIP models and weather forecast, tropical weather outlooks, etc. etc.
Quoting Patrap:
Raymond

POOR THING....


Does the NWS have a visibility number less than 1/4 of a mile? Because visibility at my house is at 100 yards, fog is as thick as the stuff in Scooby-Doo.


...DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT TUESDAY.

* VISIBILITY...LESS THAN 1/4 MILE.


* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING...SLOW DOWN...
USE YOUR HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU.
Quoting 783. Jedkins01:


I suspect something of this nature could even allow for heavy snow on the west coast of Florida causing utter chaos.


Why did those final two words give me a slight uptick in happiness? I must be really tropically depressed right now...
802. JRRP
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 3h
GFS 00z shows strong Azores high at 5-days. Watching Caribbean for possible tropical weather activity
Quoting 788. Skyepony:
Nuclear Event in United Kingdom on Monday, 28 October, 2013 at 18:01 (06:01 PM) UTC.
Description
A nuclear power station automatically shut down its reactors after debris blown by hurricane-strength winds fell onto its power lines and led to a loss of supply. It could be up to a week before the two units at Dungeness B plant in Kent - one of Britain's nine nuclear power stations - are up and running again. But a spokeswoman for EDF Energy, which runs the site, said she hoped energy would be restored much sooner and that the public should "absolutely not" be concerned by the shut-down. The two units shut down safely and diesel generators within the site were providing power for essential systems to continue to operate, Sue Fletcher of EDF said. "This is an issue caused by the unusual weather, which led to a loss of power like many of the homes in the surrounding area," Ms Fletcher said. "We share the discomfort of people locally." The plant has the capacity to produce 1040 megawatts of energy, providing power for some 1.5 million homes. More than 200,000 homes across the country have experienced a loss of power because of what has been dubbed 'St Jude's' storm. Martin Pearson, station director at Dungeness B, added: "This is a scenario we are well prepared for and we quickly responded calmly and professionally to the loss of supply. "The reactors are safely shutdown and National Grid staff are now working to restore the supply and once that is done we'll bring both units back on line."


its always amazed me why nuclear power plants electric feeds are not required to be buried to avoid such weather accidents .. and in turn a possible break down in reserve power ..
Quoting 776. SSideBrac:


I have spent many a winter month (usually in Feb),above the Artic Circle in Norway, trying to mount exercise air operations at a location called Bardufoss close to Tromso.

Cold to me personally was when the moisture (snot?) in your noise froze and crackled, every drop of moisture in every exhalation froze on your mouth cover.

Cold to me operationally was when rubber "o rings" in hydraulic systems hardened to such an extent that they failed - when undercarriage tires would freeze to the Ice unless aircraft were towed into heated Aircraft Shelters/"Rock Hanger" Pens within 3 minutes.

Mentally - IMHO - lack of colour in the landscape used to get me down - even our Jets were painted like Zebras - yet Tromso is a thriving, fun packed city (if you can get past how expensive it is and the smell of fish)

They used to say in Tromso that there were 2 main things to do ( and I mean NO disrespect to any Norwegians)- you could "Indulge in close intimate human activities [heavily censored to avoid being banned - but there is a word beginning with "f" and ending with "ing" that describes this activity] or you could fish - but in the winter you could not fish"

Joking asides, it actually truly made me realize the "hell on earth" that sailors and merchant seamen (including my Grandfather) underwent, with very basic/almost no existent artic kit, during WW II Artic Convoys to resupply Russia.

Whilst not for me - I have a huge respect for those that actually choose to live above the Artic Circle wherever it may be - I will stick with my current location in the Cayman Islands!!

Hmm yeah I having done a small bit of my military training in the cold it ain't pretty
Anyway I still love the cold it's better than me burning my skin off in cayman heat but I don't like cold cold freezing my bum off cold but anywhere between 36°F-65°F is very much good for me

Quoting 783. Jedkins01:


Gulf effect snow may be extremely rare, but it has happened before!

The main reason is the gulf is an over-moderating body of water. If the gulf was a large lake to our west with the rest of the gulf landmass, it might still be rare but it would happen more often. A rare deep gulf low could even trigger heavy snow off the gulf.

The ultimate FL snow event would be a deep low like the 1993 super storm driving through the gulf in January with an arctic air mass being drawn down behind it with a substantial snow pack across the northern half of the U.S.

Such an event would be weird and rare, but not impossible. I suspect something of this nature could even allow for heavy snow on the west coast of Florida causing utter chaos.


Hmm last I checked it had snowed in Cuba and Bahamas
But to be honest I would love wish and pray that one day Cayman can get snow
The closest thing we get in cayman is hail and hail doesn't come too often

Quoting 768. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Melissa replaced this beast.


That hurricane caused a good amount of damage here in Grand Cayman
Quoting 802. JRRP:
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 3h
GFS 00z shows strong Azores high at 5-days. Watching Caribbean for possible tropical weather activity

Aren't we all

Quoting 788. Skyepony:
Nuclear Event in United Kingdom on Monday, 28 October, 2013 at 18:01 (06:01 PM) UTC.
Description
A nuclear power station automatically shut down its reactors after debris blown by hurricane-strength winds fell onto its power lines and led to a loss of supply. It could be up to a week before the two units at Dungeness B plant in Kent - one of Britain's nine nuclear power stations - are up and running again. But a spokeswoman for EDF Energy, which runs the site, said she hoped energy would be restored much sooner and that the public should "absolutely not" be concerned by the shut-down. The two units shut down safely and diesel generators within the site were providing power for essential systems to continue to operate, Sue Fletcher of EDF said. "This is an issue caused by the unusual weather, which led to a loss of power like many of the homes in the surrounding area," Ms Fletcher said. "We share the discomfort of people locally." The plant has the capacity to produce 1040 megawatts of energy, providing power for some 1.5 million homes. More than 200,000 homes across the country have experienced a loss of power because of what has been dubbed 'St Jude's' storm. Martin Pearson, station director at Dungeness B, added: "This is a scenario we are well prepared for and we quickly responded calmly and professionally to the loss of supply. "The reactors are safely shutdown and National Grid staff are now working to restore the supply and once that is done we'll bring both units back on line."
Oh boy not another one nuke disaster
Well hope the home in Scotland will survive lol
EP, 17, 2013102906, , BEST, 0, 174N, 1170W, 50, 998, TS, 50, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 0, 1010, 170, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, RAYMOND, M,
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33
15:00 PM JST October 29 2013
==================================

Sea East of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 15.2N 133.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 15 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.0N 127.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East of The Philippines
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 29 2013

...RAYMOND MOVING NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 117.0W
ABOUT 590 MI...945 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 29 2013

THE RAPID WEAKENING OF RAYMOND APPEARS TO HAVE TEMPORARILY SLOWED
THIS MORNING AS A LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. OVERNIGHT MICROWAVE
DATA REVEALS THAT THE CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS DUE TO 25-30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FINAL-T AND
CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT MAINTAINING
AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 50 KT. THE WEAKENING PROCESS SHOULD RESUME
SHORTLY AND CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE RAYMOND
REMAINS IN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MOVES OVER DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW
SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

RECENT CENTER FIXES FROM SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THAT
RAYMOND IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST
TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES
BETWEEN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
MEXICO AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA.
THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IS
RATHER WEAK...SO ONCE RAYMOND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM IT IS
FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. THE NEW NHC
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE TVCE
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 17.6N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 18.3N 116.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 19.2N 116.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 19.8N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 31/0600Z 20.0N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/0600Z 20.0N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Lots of rain on tap for C & S FL the next 2 weeks.

Good Morning Folks!.................
Good morning, folks. News about the frightening wave off Portugal we've talked about yesterday:

Surfer takes on 'biggest wave ever ridden' after storm
The Telegraph (including a video), by Josie Ensor, 7:55AM GMT 29 Oct 2013
A surfer may have set the world record for the largest wave ever surfed after riding an estimated 100ft wave off the coast of Portugal
Quoting 706. Doppler22:
I heard someone say that huge storms hitting Europe like the St. Jude storm right now are a sign of a strong positive NAO. Is that correct?

It is the same rather trivial thing.
A westerly jet flow over the ocean is simply equal to positive NAO.
Seems to me NAO is often used for mystifications and speculations... One can do entirely without this number to characterize a circulation pattern.
Zonal, meridional, blocked are terms that are so much more interesting.
Quoting 630. 1900hurricane:

I identified the low that bombed out as the secondary low, with the primary low being the occlusion remaining north of Scotland. In this case, primary and secondary is merely a designation referencing the order of formation of the lows, as the low I designated secondary is the one that featured the probably sting jet and caused the damage.




Clarified, thanks.
For an analysis with some nice pics: Link.
Text is Dutch but the pics say a lot :)

Analysis 10:00 CET:
BTW, watch the sun today. 30% or even 35% chance of strong X-flares. More on spaceweather.com.
Bye for now. Have a nice day everybody.



Six storey scaffolding collapses during storm in Copenhagen, Denmark


Map with average winds/top gales in meters per second yesterday in Denmark. Source.
Good morning, afternoon and evening everyone. It's 64 degrees, wind chill of 64, dew point of 64, winds at 6 mph. At least they're not 64!

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Berry Stuffed French Toast with Vanilla Yogurt Sauce, Ricotta Stuffed French Toast with Caramelized Bananas, Boston Cream Pie Pancakes, bacon, egg and cheese Breakfast Cupcakes, Cinnamon Breakfast Bites, omelets with cheese, mushrooms, peppers and dice ham or bacon, cheesy grits and shrimp, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
Good morning everybody!

1 year ago today:



Wow. I understood Sandy was big, but not until now did I realize just how huge this monster was!
Lots of rain and wind the past 24 hours here with some breaks. Watching the NW Caribbean closely for development with the front dissipating and high expected to build in...
Quoting 810. StormTrackerScott:
OUCH!





That would bring hurricane conditions to most of Florida including Tampa Bay with winds of 100 mph if that verifies.
Morning, Yiniki.



Cat 1 typhoon? It can do it.

St Croix this morning is getting the heaviest rain this season, which is great. Most of us depend on our cisterns. Does the absence of Cape Verde storms this year possibly mean that currents are changing because of AGW. I write a blog on energy issues in the Caribbean, but the last one was on AGW effects on the Virgin Islands http://vienergycarpool.blogspot.com/
I am working on a paper about how changing to a low carbon society is not near as difficult as the owners of fossil fuel products would like their customers to think.Link
Quoting 821. GrandCaymanMed:
Lots of rain and wind the past 24 hours here with some breaks. Watching the NW Caribbean closely for development with the front dissipating and high expected to build in...

That would bring hurricane conditions to most of Florida including Tampa Bay with winds of 100 mph if that verifies.
14 days out in a season like this is very unlikely. Any TS approaching Fla from the west is a highly sheared system. Fall has a stronghold on us and the season may have one or two left so as a native Floridian I'm not letting my guard down but I'm not too worried.
The Forecast was for me to get down to 68 but i got down to 62!:)
leewards system has alittle twist to it. action might be shifting to the atlantic region shortly
Did you all look at the 00Z GFS Ensemble?
Link
Atlantic Satellite...

Quoting 828. OneDrop:
14 days out in a season like this is very unlikely. Any TS approaching Fla from the west is a highly sheared system. Fall has a stronghold on us and the season may have one or two left so as a native Floridian I'm not letting my guard down but I'm not too worried.


I hope, for Florida's sake, that shear rips apart whatever gets into the Gulf.

Link
The wave that was in the Atlantic a few days ago is now moving through the Eastern Caribbean. Watching it closely as it will collide with troughiness over the W. Carib.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
OUCH!





Ouchies Scotty that will hurt Florida!!!! I REALLY hope it doesnt Verify!

On a happy note, FL looks dry the next 5 days.



Quoting GrandCaymanMed:


I hope, for Florida's sake, that shear rips apart whatever gets into the Gulf.

Link
The wave that was in the Atlantic a few days ago is now moving through the Eastern Caribbean. Watching it closely as it will collide with troughiness over the W. Carib.


What would you put the odds at for this wave becoming a monster/major hurricane barreling towards the Gulf of Mexico/Florida? Just curious, hope the models do NOT verify as Scott seems to think!
lotta ifs but it might follow the gulf stream ne. florida keys could be under the gun
Quoting 837. StormWx:


What would you put the odds at for this wave becoming a monster/major hurricane barreling towards the Gulf of Mexico/Florida? Just curious, hope the models do NOT verify as Scott seems to think!


Chance of a "monster" barreling towards Florida in the next week or two is extremely low (<5%).

I haven't seen any indication based on the GFS (the model I trust) that anything is expected in the next 5-7 day range. Beyond that, the models are not reliable.

Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Chance of a "monster" barreling towards Florida in the next week or two is extremely low (<5%).

I haven't seen any indication based on the GFS (the model I trust) that anything is expected in the next 5-7 day range. Beyond that, the models are not reliable.



Thanks, thats what i was thinking too. This year is toast when it comes to any storm in the Gulf. Besides SST's are decreasing quickly and wont support much of anything.



I will for certain be writing a huge blog post for Sandy's anniversary when I get home later today. What made it so unique, the forecast successes and failures, etc.
Quoting 837. StormWx:


What would you put the odds at for this wave becoming a monster/major hurricane barreling towards the Gulf of Mexico/Florida? Just curious, hope the models do NOT verify as Scott seems to think!
I dont know..models keep suggesting a storm but i dont see anything so far..Im watching what they say..hmmm sunday...we'll see what happens
I've just waited for second-guesses of the handling of severe weather warnings yesterday in Germany because of "Christian". As much as I was able to see, this storm for a change was "underhyped" by weather services and media, and a lot of people were taken by surprise of the strength of the storm.

Here my try to translate a note in a live report about the aftermaths of "Christian" in Hamburg, found in "Hamburger Abendblatt":

Was warning in time ?

13.12h : After severe aftermaths of storm depression "Christian" discussions arose by meteorologists on Tuesday whether there had been enough warnings of the extent of the storm in Hamburg. The German Weather Service (DWD) has pointed out impending dangers two days ahead, said DWD meteorologist Lars Kirchhuebel. 24 hours before "Christian" arrived in Germany, there had been warnings for Northern Germany, but not specifically for Hamburg. There had been a warning on Monday morning of gusts up to 103 kmh and in the afternoon a storm warning of hurricane force winds with more than 104 kmh. At that time in Hamburg-Finkenwerder gusts up to 120 kmh already had been measured.

Meteorologist Dominik Jung on wetter.net says: "The intense low was foreseeable for a few days. At the latest at Monday morning, when damage and wind forces from England and France were known, appropriate severe weather warnings should have been issued in order to warn people and first responders." For Jung it is incomprehensible why a severe weather warning was delayed "until to the middle of the hurricane [orig.: orkan] chaos" in Hamburg.


Link to the assessment of Dominik Jung (in German)
well GEM suggests something mid week..it will have to fight the front.....
Quoting 843. barbamz:
I've just waited for second-guesses of the handling of severe weather warnings yesterday in Germany because of "Christian". As much as I was able to see, this storm for a chance was "underhyped" by weather services and media, and a lot of people were taken by surprise of the strength of the storm.

Here my try to translate a note in a live report about the aftermaths of "Christian" in Hamburg, found in "Hamburger Abendblatt":

+ + + Was warning in time ? + + +

13.12h : After severe aftermaths of storm depression "Christian" discussions arose by meteorologists on Tuesday whether there had been enough warnings of the extent of the storm in Hamburg. The German Weather Service (DWD) has pointed out impending dangers two days ahead, said DWD meteorologist Lars Kirchhübel. 24 hours before "Christian" arrived in Germany, there had been warnings for Northern Germany, but not specifically for Hamburg. There had been a warning on Monday morning of gusts up to 103 kmh and in the afternoon a storm warning of hurricane force winds with more than 104 kmh. At that time in Hamburg-Finkenwerder gusts up to 120 kmh already had been measured.

Meteorologist Dominik Jung on wetter.net says: “The intense low was foreseeable for a few days. At the latest at Monday morning, when damage and wind forces from England and France were known, appropriate severe weather warnings should have been issued in order to warn people and first responders." For Jung it is incomprehensible why a severe weather warning was delayed "until to the middle of the hurricane chaos" in Hamburg.

yes i noticed that also yesterday,folks over there were caught by surprise on how strong the winds really turned out to be..
Quoting 840. StormWx:


Thanks, thats what i was thinking too. This year is toast when it comes to any storm in the Gulf. Besides SST's are decreasing quickly and wont support much of anything.





I honestly thought we'd see at least one Tropical Storm down in the Caribbean before the end of the season. The GFS was hinting at a system towards the end of its run (8-10 day range) for weeks but nothing ever materialized. Now the GFS has even dropped that.

But we will need to watch the wave getting ready to move though the Caribbean. There is an outside chance something could spin up. But as of right now, I don't see much coming from it.

But we'll need to keep watching the models to see if things change. Sometimes things can change quickly.
Quoting 827. cruzanrum:
St Croix this morning is getting the heaviest rain this season, which is great. Most of us depend on our cisterns. Does the absence of Cape Verde storms this year possibly mean that currents are changing because of AGW. I write a blog on energy issues in the Caribbean, but the last one was on AGW effects on the Virgin Islands http://vienergycarpool.blogspot.com/
I am working on a paper about how changing to a low carbon society is not near as difficult as the owners of fossil fuel products would like their customers to think.Link


No, the absence does not imply anything climatologically one way or the other. If this keeps happening more frequently over the coming years then it would be possible to build a stronger case, but a single event does not provide enough evidence in and of itself to indicate anything. That's weather, not climate.
I just dont see a storm getting thru this shear.......
The Weather Channel will be rolling out their new suite of graphics either Friday or next Monday. Meh...

Link
Quoting 834. GeoffreyWPB:
Atlantic Satellite...

That area of thunderstorms near Bermuda look interesting but it probably won't amount to much.
Quoting 837. StormWx:


What would you put the odds at for this wave becoming a monster/major hurricane barreling towards the Gulf of Mexico/Florida? Just curious, hope the models do NOT verify as Scott seems to think!
I am already in my safe room.
Quoting 843. barbamz:
I've just waited for second-guesses of the handling of severe weather warnings yesterday in Germany because of "Christian". As much as I was able to see, this storm for a change was "underhyped" by weather services and media, and a lot of people were taken by surprise of the strength of the storm.

Here my try to translate a note in a live report about the aftermaths of "Christian" in Hamburg, found in "Hamburger Abendblatt":

Was warning in time ?

13.12h : After severe aftermaths of storm depression "Christian" discussions arose by meteorologists on Tuesday whether there had been enough warnings of the extent of the storm in Hamburg. The German Weather Service (DWD) has pointed out impending dangers two days ahead, said DWD meteorologist Lars Kirchhuebel. 24 hours before "Christian" arrived in Germany, there had been warnings for Northern Germany, but not specifically for Hamburg. There had been a warning on Monday morning of gusts up to 103 kmh and in the afternoon a storm warning of hurricane force winds with more than 104 kmh. At that time in Hamburg-Finkenwerder gusts up to 120 kmh already had been measured.

Meteorologist Dominik Jung on wetter.net says: "The intense low was foreseeable for a few days. At the latest at Monday morning, when damage and wind forces from England and France were known, appropriate severe weather warnings should have been issued in order to warn people and first responders." For Jung it is incomprehensible why a severe weather warning was delayed "until to the middle of the hurricane chaos" in Hamburg.


Little warning on this Jung - he is a climate revisionist and nothing he says should be taken seriously, even where he's right.
Quoting 853. Llamaluvr:
I am already in my safe room.


I would give the chances of a major storm a low, very low probability. However, with a strong MJO in the offing, I would not rule anything out. It has been one heck of a year.
Storm death toll rises across northern Europe
Associated Press in Copenhagen, theguardian.com, Tuesday 29 October 2013 11.07 GMT
One of the worst storms to hit northern and western Europe in recent years claims the lives of at least 15 people

The Europe storm death toll has risen to 15 after Danish police said a driver was killed when he crashed into a tree knocked down by violent gusts.

Monday's storm was one of the worst in years in northern and western Europe.

Authorities said on Tuesday that dozens of people had been injured in Denmark as gusts of wind up to 120mph (194km/h) swept across the country. Train passengers spent the night in a sports facility because fallen trees had blocked tracks. The storm left a trail of uprooted trees, damaged buildings and collapsed scaffoldings across the country.

There were six deaths in Germany, five in Britain, two in Denmark and one in France and the Netherlands.

Tens of thousands of people were without power on Tuesday in Britain, Sweden, Denmark, Estonia and Latvia.

Quoting rmbjoe1954:


I would give the chances of a major strom a low, very low probability. However, with a strong MJO in the offing, I would not rule anything out. It has been one heck of a year.


True, the MJO looks to be favorable in the Caribbean. We'll have to see how the wind shear plays out and the dry air. But considering the models have been developing storms so far out in advance then never materializing I would put a low probability on anything of significance forming.
Quoting 649. Pallis:
I'm buying it. Your points are valid.


Heavy (15" over large areas) snows in my memory are Jan 1966, Feb 1979, Feb, 1983, Jan 1987, Nov 1987, March 1993, Jan 1996, Feb 2003, Dec 2009, Feb 2010 (twice in six days). The DC area is frustratingly almost snowless many winters but we also get fairly frequent big dumps.

I have no idea what the winter will bring but statistically it should be snowier than the past three.


Oh Wait!! we still have 33 days of Atlantic TC season left. It ain't over till it's over.

I'm appropriately afraid of thunderstorms, downbursts, tornadoes, tropical cyclones, and lightning. I am not afraid of anything a DC winter
can do to me. Four feet of snow (return period 250 years) is not
enough to crush my roof, I have heat that does not require power and winds here in winter won't cause structural damage. But a TC could flood me out, and drop trees on my roof and anything above an F2 tornado would cause substantial damage to my home.
The season has the fewest number of hurricanes since 1982. The last time a season produced no major hurricanes, or category 3 storms packing winds of 111 miles per hour or higher, was 1994. The last time a season came and went without a storm stronger than a category 1 (winds of up to 95 miles per hour) was 1968.

We are witnessing a historically calm year for sure, and November will likely be dead as well.
This could be a significant event. Especially if the CAPE increases..

Day 3 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 am CDT Tuesday Oct 29 2013


Valid 311200z - 011200z


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from the arklatex/lower MS
River Valley to the Ohio River valley...


..arklatex/lower MS River Valley to the Tennessee/Ohio River valleys...
A Low Cape/high shear regime is expected to bring at least an
isolated severe risk to a broad regional extent on Thursday. A
considerable upper trough over the plains early Thursday seems
likely to take on an increasingly negative tilt...especially by
Thursday night as it crosses the Midwest/Ohio River valley. Very
strong south-southwesterly winds in the lowest few km will quickly
transport a seasonally moist airmass north-northeastward ahead of a
cold front...which will accelerate eastward especially Thursday
night across the Tennessee/Ohio River valleys and Midwest. By late
afternoon/early evening Thursday...lower 60s f surface dewpoints may
exist as far north as portions of Illinois/Indiana and Ohio.


While early convection ahead of the cold front will be a
complicating factor across parts of the arklatex and Lower/Middle MS
River Valley...the most favorable /or certain/ combination of modest
instability/strong vertical shear Thursday afternoon into evening
should materialize generally across portions of the arklamiss/Tennessee
Valley...although middle-level lapse rates will be weaker with
south-southwestward extent. Given a very moist low-level airmass and
ample low-level/deep-layer shear...damaging winds and some tornadoes
will be possible with what should be a complex storm Mode including
line-embedded bowing structures/some semi-discrete supercells. In
fact...a strong tornado risk cannot be discounted across parts of
the lower MS valley/Tennessee Valley given the robust magnitude of the
low-level winds /50-65 knots in lowest 1-2 km/...very strong srh...and
the moist boundary layer.


While the exact degree of destabilization is uncertain with
northward extent into the Ohio River valley...low-level
moisture/meager instability may be sufficient for the development of
a fast-moving/accelerating low-topped convective line Thursday
evening/overnight across Tennessee/Ohio River valleys. As such...it appears
that at least isolated damaging wind gusts will nocturnally be
possible...even if there is a relative absence of
lightning-producing convection.


.Guyer.. 10/29/2013
Quoting 856. barbamz:
Storm death toll rises across northern Europe
Associated Press in Copenhagen, theguardian.com, Tuesday 29 October 2013 11.07 GMT
One of the worst storms to hit northern and western Europe in recent years claims the lives of at least 15 people

The Europe storm death toll has risen to 15 after Danish police said a driver was killed when he crashed into a tree knocked down by violent gusts.

Monday's storm was one of the worst in years in northern and western Europe.

Authorities said on Tuesday that dozens of people had been injured in Denmark as gusts of wind up to 120mph (194km/h) swept across the country. Train passengers spent the night in a sports facility because fallen trees had blocked tracks. The storm left a trail of uprooted trees, damaged buildings and collapsed scaffoldings across the country.

There were six deaths in Germany, five in Britain, two in Denmark and one in France and the Netherlands.

Tens of thousands of people were without power on Tuesday in Britain, Sweden, Denmark, Estonia and Latvia.


Two fatalities in Holland (Amsterdam a young woman by falling tree, Veenendaal a young man of 24 struck on the head by a branch).
The tropical wave at 15N 70W is looking pretty scary....

Turning clouds north of Puerto Rico...

Could this be the storm?
Quoting 847. Xyrus2000:


No, the absence does not imply anything climatologically one way or the other. If this keeps happening more frequently over the coming years then it would be possible to build a stronger case, but a single event does not provide enough evidence in and of itself to indicate anything. That's weather, not climate.


Thanks, I would agree that it is probably more a weather event than some indicator of climate change. It was brought up, where I work, if the failure of the Cape Verde train to run this year might mean we were reaching some tipping point. Still, I don't consider the statement from a person who has lived 55 years in the islands observing storms wondering about this changes as just ignorance of the difference between weather and climate. It was just an observance on her part. I think you comment indicates what I think -- we will just have to see what happens next.
3 potential tropical systems at 168 hours...



1. 15n 100w
2. 15n 75w
3. 35n 55w
132 hour. TS at 25n 65w



210 hour. TD at 20n 80w, hurricane at 15n 105w



Also a 939MB LOW at 25W 65N!
168 hours. hinting at a nor'easter?

I hope it isn't a sandy type hybrid.

navgem 84 hours. Nor'easter?

Looks like one.

Quoting 868. Torito:
navgem 84 hours. Nor'easter?

Looks like one.


Nor'easters are so named because of the wind that comes out of the northeast on the back side of the storm systems. Your case above would not be a nor'easter (complete opposite, in fact).
It is so quiet here.....






*Cricket... Cricket...*


Short storm video from Norderney (German island in the Northern Sea).
Quoting 869. 1900hurricane:

Nor'easters are so named because of the wind that comes out of the northeast on the back side of the storm systems. Your case above would not be a nor'easter (complete opposite, in fact).


Southwester. :)
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
426 am CDT Tuesday Oct 29 2013



Heading into tomorrow and tomorrow night...the middle to upper level
ridge axis will begin to slide to the east as very strong upper
level trough and vorticity maxima lifts out of the southern
rockies. As the trough moves into the plains states...strong
surface based cyclogenesis will take place during the day
tomorrow over the Central Plains. A strong low level jet will
develop over the Southern Plains and arklatex by tomorrow
night in response to this deepening system. On the backside of the
low...a strong cold front will develop over the central rockies
and High Plains. In our region...increased onshore flow can be
expected...which will pump in deeper moisture. However...enough
capping will linger through tomorrow night to inhibit
convection...and will keep a dry forecast in place through
tomorrow night. Temperatures will be significantly warmer tomorrow
night due to the surge of low level moisture into the region...with
overnight lows only cooling into the upper 60s and lower 70s.



Conditions will deteriorate rapidly on Thursday...as the trough
continues to lift into the Midwest...and the strong cold front
slides into the lower Mississippi Valley by Thursday afternoon and
evening. Have went with likely probability of precipitation for northwest zones Thursday
afternoon as the front and a potential line of convection move
into the area. This band of convection will then spread eastward
across the forecast area Thursday night. The convection will be
ongoing along the coast by Friday morning. Have went with likely
probability of precipitation for the entire forecast area Thursday night as the front
moves through the area. The front will briefly hang up along the
coast Friday morning...as a second upper level vorticity maxima
and associated trough axis slide through the Southern Plains. This
secondary surge of energy will finally push the front offshore
Friday afternoon.

Concerning the potential for severe thunderstorms...the overall
threat looks to be fairly low even though shear values will be
very favorable for stronger convection and Omega values will be
very high along the frontal boundary. Fortunately...the overall
instability in the atmosphere will be greatly limited as the
entire atmospheric profile becomes moisture loaded and precipitable water values
push above 2 inches. A strong 50 knot low level jet will be
positioned across the area Thursday evening...with 0-3km shear
values exceeding 40 knots. These very high shear values will
produce helicity indices in excess of 400 m2/s2 over much of the
forecast area Thursday evening into Thursday night. However...a
nearly moist adiabatic lapse rate and cape values of 500 j/kg or
less in the middle to upper levels will greatly inhibit the
potential for sustained deep updrafts in any convection...and this
will greatly limit the severe potential. The most favorable region
for any isolated strong to severe convection will be over the far
northern zones of southwest Mississippi where middle-level cooling
will be slightly stronger and lapse rates will be slightly more
favorable. If any severe convection does develop...the main
threats will be isolated tornadoes and strong straight line winds.
Given the high precipitable water values expected Thursday night and the slow
movement of the frontal boundary...locally heavy rainfall will be
possible. Rainfall values of 1 to 3 inches cannot be ruled out
with the heavier convection.
Might as well see if the bots in Ricky roods blog are here right now.....
Surface trof forms near Barbados trop wave moves further in Caribbean 24hrs


Surface trof moves into Caribbean and continues Westward 48hrs and 72hrs


Surface trof turns into low and continues to develop there after day 5


This is what NOAA sees with this tropical system that models are showing



FALL SEVERE WEATHER TEST WARNING

...FALL SEVERE WEATHER SEASON APPROACHING... ...REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES... THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER AND ASSOCIATED HAZARDS OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS INCREASES DURING LATE OCTOBER AND NOVEMBER


A BATTERY OPERATED NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS AN EXCELLENT MEANS TO RECEIVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WARNINGS. WEATHER RADIOS CAN BE PROGRAMMED TO AUTOMATICALLY ALERT IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR YOUR PARISH OR COUNTY. ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AROUND 915AM...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL ISSUE A TEST TORNADO WARNING MESSAGE ON NOAA WEATHER RADIO. THE TEST WARNING WILL ONLY BE TRANSMITTED AS A TEST MESSAGE AND BE DISPLAYED ON YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO AS A TEST MESSAGE
GFS 240 hours. Hello, typhoon.

I never noticed that wobble on Raymonds track till now.

I wonder when Dr.Masters will post a new blog...

It has been 1 and a half days now.


Crazy folks, lol. Yesterday in Eckwarderhoerne (near Bremerhaven, I think). Gales up to 140 km/h, caption says.
Quoting 881. Torito:
I wonder when Dr.Masters will post a new blog...

It has been 1 and a half days now.




when he is ready too do so
Tornado in Germany on Tuesday, 29 October, 2013 at 09:34 (09:34 AM) UTC.
Description
A tornado tore through a campsite belonging to a church in southern German on Monday afternoon, injuring 27 people, including 16 children aged between 10 and 13 years old. Triggered by unusually humid weather, the tornado hit the campsite in the Aalen area in the state of Baden-Württemberg. It ripped up two large tents belonging to a local diocese, and damaged eight others. Roofs came off five buildings and trees were uprooted. There were around 100 children and adults at the campsite, 27 of whom were injured badly enough to need medical help. One 10-year-old girl had such bad back injuries that she was taken to a Stuttgart hospital by air ambulance. Five others, including three supervising adults, also sustained more serious injuries �" mostly broken arms. The tornado caused an estimated €200,000 of damage to the site. Those who were not physically injured were looked after in a local sports hall, where they were treated for shock.
Quoting 881. Torito:
I wonder when Dr.Masters will post a new blog...

It has been 1 and a half days now.



Besides the European Storm and the one year anniversary of Sandy, not much to talk about weather wise
Power Outage in Russia [Asia] on Tuesday, 29 October, 2013 at 11:46 (11:46 AM) UTC.
Description
Gale-force winds have disrupted power supplies to five districts of the Leningrad region, the Russian Emergency Situations Ministry's local branch said in a press release. "As of noon, a power outage was reported in the Kingisepp, Slantsy, Lomonosov, Luzhki and Volosovo districts - 217 electrical substations and 238 localities with a population of over 13,000 people," it said. Power supplies were also disrupted to 13 towns and villages in the Olonets district of Karelia, the ministry's branch for the republic said. As many as 1,500 people in the Novgorod region were affected by a power blackout caused by the St. Jude's storm on Tuesday morning. The St. Jude's storm, which first hit the southern UK, swept through Russia's northwestern regions on Tuesday. Neva water levels 75 cm up due to St. Jude's storm, dam gates closed. The water level in the Neva River is 75 centimeters higher than usual due to the approach of St. Jude's storm. The ship and water gates of the dam in the Gulf of Finland were closed, and the water level rose by 75 centimeters in the Mining Institute hydro-post area as of 11 a.m., the city emergency situations department said on Tuesday.
Here is today's relative position of the 300mb jet stream over Conus; something to keep in mind over the next few days as the trof passes trough the Central Plains.  Lots of potential there for strong straight line winds and possible tornado watches................The shot of warm air across the Gulf States over the next few days will add to the atmospheric instability as well:


JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 881. Torito:
I wonder when Dr.Masters will post a new blog...

It has been 1 and a half days now.

He just did. :P
Quoting 884. Skyepony:
Tornado in Germany on Tuesday, 29 October, 2013 at 09:34 (09:34 AM) UTC.
Description
A tornado tore through a campsite belonging to a church in southern German on Monday afternoon, injuring 27 people, including 16 children aged between 10 and 13 years old. Triggered by unusually humid weather, the tornado hit the campsite in the Aalen area in the state of Baden-Württemberg. It ripped up two large tents belonging to a local diocese, and damaged eight others. Roofs came off five buildings and trees were uprooted. There were around 100 children and adults at the campsite, 27 of whom were injured badly enough to need medical help. One 10-year-old girl had such bad back injuries that she was taken to a Stuttgart hospital by air ambulance. Five others, including three supervising adults, also sustained more serious injuries �" mostly broken arms. The tornado caused an estimated €200,000 of damage to the site. Those who were not physically injured were looked after in a local sports hall, where they were treated for shock.


Skye, this has happened in August. Look here:
Tornado rips up church campsite, injures 27
Published: 20 Aug 2013 09:32 GMT+02:00
Quoting 776. SSideBrac:


I have spent many a winter month (usually in Feb), trying to mount exercise air operations at a location called Bardufoss close to Tromso.

Cold to me personally was when the moisture (snot?) in your noise froze and crackled, every drop of moisture in every exhalation froze on your mouth cover.

Cold to me operationally was when rubber "o rings" in hydraulic systems hardened to such an extent that they failed - when undercarriage tires would freeze to the Ice unless airctaft6 were towed into heated Aircraft Shelters/Rock hanger Pens within 3 minutes.

Mentally - IMHO - lack of colour in the landscape used to get me down - even our Jets were painted like Zebras - yet Tromso is a thriving, fun packed city (if you can get past how expensive it is and the smell of fish)

They used to say in Tromso that there were 2 main things to do ( and I mean NO disrespect to nay Norwegians)- you could "Indulge in close intimate human activities [heavily censored to avoid being banned - but there is a word beginning with "f" and ending with "ing" that describes this activity] or you could fish - but in the winter your could not fish"

Joking asides, it actually truly made me realize the "hell on earth" that sailors and merchant seamen (including my Grandfather) underwent, with very basic/almost no existent artic kit, during WW II Artic Convoys to resupply Russia.

Whilst not for me - I have a huge respect for those that actually choose to live above the Artic Circle wherever it may be - I will stick with my current location in the Cayman Islands!!


Or so cold steel shatters....

I love it when they throw a bowl of water or a cup of coffee in the air and it freezes before it hits the ground.

Not even sure if that close quarters conduct not in an inside heated place would be all that pleasant.
Quoting 890. barbamz:


Skye, this has happened in August. Look here:
Tornado rips up church campsite, injures 27
Published: 20 Aug 2013 09:32 GMT+02:00

That's why it looked so familiar. I was running out & didn't double check..


sar..lol..there ya go. That site finally made me wrong:)
FIM 8

288hrs