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Australia Endures Another Dangerous Fire Weather Day; Lorenzo Dissipates

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:23 PM GMT on October 24, 2013

Sydney, Australia and the Blue Mountains have endured a second day of dangerous fire weather conditions without a devastating fire catastrophe ensuing. The high temperature in Sydney on Thursday hit 73°F, with sustained winds of 30 mph gusting to 41 mph, and a humidity as low as 7%. The temperature was nearly 20°F cooler than on Wednesday, but the strong winds and low humidity helped fan the 56 fires still burning across the state of New South Wales. Tragically, a fire-fighting aircraft crashed Thursday during a mission to douse one of the fires, killing the pilot and starting a new fire. The fires have burned more than 120,000 hectares (300,000 acres), and have a perimeter of about 1,600 km (990 miles), and are being blamed for two deaths and over $97 million in damage. Australia has just had its hottest September on record, and the 12-month period ending in August 2013 set a record for the hottest 12-month period in Australian history. Australia's warmest summer and 3rd warmest winter on record occurred during this 12-month period. It has also been quite dry in the fire region over the past few months, with sol moisture levels in the lowest 10% historically. However, the latest drought statement from the Bureau of Meteorology is not showing that long-term drought conditions exist.


Figure 1. Volunteer Christelle Gilmore cares for 'Phoenix', an orphaned baby Swamp Wallaby burned in the Springwood fires on October 22, 2013 in Castlereagh, Australia. Photo by Brendon Thorne/Getty Images.

Raymond weakens, moves away from Mexico
Tropical Storm Raymond continues to move away from the coast of Mexico, and will no longer bring heavy rains to the country. Recent satellite loops show that Raymond is a poorly-organized tropical storm, with just a modest area of heavy thunderstorms.


Figure 2. Rainfall over Mexico from October 15 - 23 from Hurricane Raymond totaled close to 10" near Acapulco, as estimated by NASA's TRMM satellite. Fortunately, Raymond did not move ashore, or else the 15+" inches of rain that fell offshore would have fallen over land. Image credit: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center.

Tropical Storm Lorenzo dies in the Middle Atlantic
Tropical Storm Lorenzo has died in the Middle Atlantic, done in by high wind shear. None of the reliable computer models for tropical cyclone genesis are predicting any new storms developing in the coming five days. During the first week of November, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, will bring rising air over the Caribbean, increasing the odds of a tropical storm developing then.

Typhoons Francisco and Lekima weaken
Typhoon Francisco has weakened to a tropical storm, and is bringing heavy rains to Japan as it stays offshore and heads northeast, parallel to the coast. Super Typhoon Lekima, which stayed at Category 5 status for a day and a half, has now weakened to a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds. Satellite loops show that Lekima is still an impressive typhoon with a prominent eye surrounded by a solid ring of eyewall clouds with very cold cloud tops. Lekima is predicted to recurve to the northeast without affecting any land areas. While Lekima was at peak strength between 12 and 18 UTC on Wednesday, its eye expanded greatly in size while the storm stayed at Category 5 strength, something that is very unusual to see (thanks to Scott Bachmeier of the University of Wisconsin CIMSS for the info and animation.)


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Super Typhoon Lekima, taken at approximately 01:05 UTC on October 24, 2013. At the time, Lekima was a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

Fire Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks, Dr. Masters.
Thanks Dr! But I'm still thirsty from the last blog!
Raymond

Thank you Dr. Masters...

Quoting 535. sdswwwe:
So when is the MJO estimated to hit the Caribbean again?


Quoted from the Doc. himself.

"Tropical Storm Lorenzo has died in the Middle Atlantic, done in by high wind shear. None of the reliable computer models for tropical cyclone genesis are predicting any new storms developing in the coming five days. During the first week of November, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, will bring rising air over the Caribbean, increasing the odds of a tropical storm developing then."
In the 70's today!:)
Thanks Doc!
I do think that Lekima got stronger than a 160mph storm at one point.But they don't have HH over there.
It appears that their was interesting weather in My region on this date...

Northeast (1969)
Early season chill... Albany, NY 16 degrees Philadelphia, PA 25 degrees Baltimore, MD (Aprt) 25 degrees Washington, DC 29 degrees

Mid-Atlantic Coast (1878)
Hurricane did extensive damage in NC, VA, MD, NJ and PA. "Philadelphia's worst" -- 84 mph wind gust at Cape May, NJ; 28.82" pressure at Annapolis, MD.
This is what the storm of 1878 would have looked like over my area...
Quoting 9. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



Hmm, is that a spectral image of a hurricane ghost?
(Who ya gonna call?...)
Quoting 5. SFLWeatherman:
In the 70's today!:)


I walked outside this morning (shorts and T shirt) and felt a nice chill in the air. My personal weather station was reading 66 degrees (currently 72 degrees).
Quoting 12. WalkingInTheSun:



Hmm, is that a spectral image of a hurricane ghost?
(Who ya gonna call?...)
I think there reloading the imager there seems everything is double
Oh yeah, I think the BOC things is looking more like it wants to sweep toward FL -- maybe the Bahamas. Lorenzo in the Atlantic also has models showing it could circle around like it might come in for a 2nd try, lol.

From lower Alabama, it's currently 70 degrees with crisp air and white trout everywhere.

Enjoy.
www.solarham.net
Added 10/24/2013 @ 10:55 UTC

PAIR OF M-FLARES

Solar activity continues on Thursday morning at moderate to high levels. Two more M-Class solar flares (M2.5 and M3.5) were observed around Sunspot 1875. Stay tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest information regarding any associated CMEs. A faint coronal mass ejection following the earlier M9.3 event looks to be Earth directed with an impact possible this upcoming weekend.

Stay tuned.




CME Update: A faint Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) appears to be leaving the Sun following the M9.3 flare event when viewing the latest STEREO Ahead COR2 imagery. It is possible that there will be an Earth directed component. This will need to be confirmed once new LASCO imagery becomes available.
QUOTE: "Australia has just had its hottest September on record, and the 12-month period ending in August 2013 set a record for the hottest 12-month period in Australian history."

That, of course, is a rather short time, all in all.
I wonder how much it beat the old record by, overall. If by little, that means it almost happened not all that long ago, meteorologically speaking. If by much, then perhaps a little more. :-))

Still, Kudos to Dr Masters for all his hard work & nice website!





Awesome picture.
With a little imagination, it could sort of look like angels fighting. Sort of like vivid 3D animation or something.

EDIT: actually, reminds me of some of the old Marvel comics -- stuff like X-men, Cable, etc. when you zoom in closer. Cool.
Thanks Dr.  Nice to see that the NHC forecast for Raymond to move away from the coast verified.

In terms of a comment on the earlier Blog as to predicting exact weather related outcomes 4 months out; pure lunacy and speculation......................
nice fall picture
Fortunately, Raymond gave dismal rain accumulations inland for a Cat 3 staying so close to the same location near land for so very long!
95S looking even better today..... A TC could form if this keeps up.

Francisco is about to undergo rapid dissipation... expect it to be gone within 2 days.

Raymond has strengthened slightly in the past few hours... However, expect any further strengthening to be slow for the next few days while it moves out to sea... once it gets out there a bit, it will have a chance to possibly make a run for minimal hurricane status.

As predicted, Lorenzo has degenerated into a post-tropical naked swirl...... Expect the remnants of this system to be absorbed by a front in the next 2 days.

Lekima appears to have strengthened slightly in the past few hours. However, conditions will soon deteriorate for TCF, expect wind speeds to slowly taper off over the next 24 hours followed by a rather quick round of weakening as it moves towards Japan.

Quoting 28. GTstormChaserCaleb:


Slow blog, eh? :/
Quoting 29. Torito:


Slow blog, eh? :/
I think we're all waiting for StormTrackerScott to analyze the situation.
www.portlight.org





Our friends at the Paying it Forward Foundation have taken on the huge task of rebuilding the Seaside American Legion Hall in New Jersey, which was badly damaged in Hurricane Sandy. The Veterans who are members of the hall do not have anywhere else to go, and continue to use the facility, often daily, despite the smell and the poor conditions.



There are no events being held there by the boy scouts or any other entity due to the uninhabitable conditions of the building. As some legion members stop by they are very discouraged and overwhelmed with no funds or resources not knowing where to turn.
Paying it Forward Foundation will be leading the project to accomplish multiple tasks with the help of various small grassroots organizations (including Portlight) and individual volunteers.

The work includes demo, sheetrock, flooring and painting. Outside, we will paint, clean the monument and flagpole area; and help install new electrical signage. We are in need of a heating system and new roof as well. The old roof was destroyed by Sandy and can no longer be patched.


In order to make this project successful, we need your help. The Paying it Forward Foundation's goal is to raise $15,000 for this project. This money will be used to purchase the wood, tools, and other equipment needed for this project. Portlight Strategies, Inc. supports this project and we ask you, our supporters, to consider making a donation to this project.


Visit our website at www.portlight.org and click on the PayPal button to make a donation to this project. Please indicate "Legion" in the memo field of your donation.

Thank you for supporting this worthy cause.

Portlight/FaceBook

DOOM!!!



And actually this seems reasonable believe it or not this MJO pulse has meant business since it started with Phaillin something to keep an eye on at the beginning of the month, and watch for pressures to lower and heat to build up in the Caribbean.
Quoting 31. Patrap:
www.portlight.org





Our friends at the Paying it Forward Foundation have taken on the huge task of rebuilding the Seaside American Legion Hall in New Jersey, which was badly damaged in Hurricane Sandy. The Veterans who are members of the hall do not have anywhere else to go, and continue to use the facility, often daily, despite the smell and the poor conditions.



There are no events being held there by the boy scouts or any other entity due to the uninhabitable conditions of the building. As some legion members stop by they are very discouraged and overwhelmed with no funds or resources not knowing where to turn.
Paying it Forward Foundation will be leading the project to accomplish multiple tasks with the help of various small grassroots organizations (including Portlight) and individual volunteers.

The work includes demo, sheetrock, flooring and painting. Outside, we will paint, clean the monument and flagpole area; and help install new electrical signage. We are in need of a heating system and new roof as well. The old roof was destroyed by Sandy and can no longer be patched.


In order to make this project successful, we need your help. The Paying it Forward Foundation's goal is to raise $15,000 for this project. This money will be used to purchase the wood, tools, and other equipment needed for this project. Portlight Strategies, Inc. supports this project and we ask you, our supporters, to consider making a donation to this project.


Visit our website at www.portlight.org and click on the PayPal button to make a donation to this project. Please indicate "Legion" in the memo field of your donation.

Thank you for supporting this worthy cause.

Portlight/FaceBook




Touching story, but alas... I have no spare cash. :'(
Quoting 29. Torito:


Slow blog, eh? :/
How do you like the sounds of a hurricane named Melissa?

Also, looks like a void that might be filled.

12Z GFS
Quoting 32. GTstormChaserCaleb:
DOOM!!!



And actually this seems reasonable believe it or not this MJO pulse has meant business since it started with Phaillin something to keep an eye on at the beginning of the month, and watch for pressures to lower and heat to build up in the Caribbean.

This MJO pulse isn't nearly as strong as it was in the West Pacfic. It might try to start something but I wouldn't expect anything of significance, especially if it enters the Gulf where cold fronts will inject dry air and shear it (*cough* Karen *cough*).
Quoting 37. TropicalAnalystwx13:

This MJO nearly as strong as it was in the West Pacfic. It might try to start something but I wouldn't expect anything of significance, especially if it enters the Gulf where cold fronts will inject dry air and shear it (*cough* Karen *cough*).
But this looks to develop more monsoonal in nature and looks like it steals moisture from the developing EPAC storm, so this might be bigger than Karen. I do agree there will likely be shear and dry air in the Gulf, but the system develops before reaching the Gulf unlike Karen. We will see this is 2013 anyways, so knowing the luck of the Atlantic the MJO might fall flat on its face before something can get going.
(Looks at date stamp,Sees Nov 2 and 300 hours+ out.Then proceeds to start laughing especially knowing this hurricane seasons luck).
Quoting 35. GTstormChaserCaleb:
How do you like the sounds of a hurricane named Melissa?

Also, looks like a void that might be filled.

I thought that was a record for storms that have formed in November.Then I start realizing "Where's wrong way Lenny and Kate?".Next thing I know I saw the file name and it was this years hurricane season...This is pretty d**n pathetic..
Thanks for the update,
Quoting 41. washingtonian115:
I thought that was a record for storms that have formed in November.Then I start realizing "Where's wrong way Lenny and Kate?".Next thing I know I saw the file name and it was this years hurricane season...This is pretty d**n pathetic..
I'm not holding my breath on this, until I see this model put together consecutive runs of showing a storm, better yet in the more shorter range say 3-5 days then I would get a little worried. Right now I'm just taking note on it and marked down Nov. 9.
Quoting 35. GTstormChaserCaleb:
How do you like the sounds of a hurricane named Melissa?

Also, looks like a void that might be filled.



seems too far out to really think about... ask me again on the 4th or 5th if models keep the system alive.... :)
Quoting 44. Torito:


seems too far out to really think about... ask me again on the 4th or 5th if models keep the system alive.... :)
You betcha...here is a look at things now.

GFS being 384 HRs out PLUS it's November... I won't bet a dime on this one. I know hurricanes can form in November, but that's pretty rare.
Quoting 45. GTstormChaserCaleb:
You betcha...here is a look at things now.



that blob south of the GOM looks interesting... it might have amounted to something if shear and frontal winds did not bother it like it is right now...
Quoting 46. Bluestorm5:
GFS being 384 HRs out PLUS it's November... I won't bet a dime on this one. I know hurricanes can form in November, but that's pretty rare.


In December and even January as well...........

Hurricane Alice spanned 2 calendar years.

Link
EPAC 228 hrs. see what the rest of the ensemble run shows.

Quoting 32. GTstormChaserCaleb:
DOOM!!!



And actually this seems reasonable believe it or not this MJO pulse has meant business since it started with Phaillin something to keep an eye on at the beginning of the month, and watch for pressures to lower and heat to build up in the Caribbean.


-- C'mon, where's Storm Tracker Scott on this? :-))
Da-dmp, da-dmp, da-dmp -- (Shark-Nado II?)
Quoting 51. WalkingInTheSun:


-- C'mon, where's Storm Tracker Scott on this? :-))
Da-dmp, da-dmp, da-dmp -- (Shark-Nado II?)


Not to mention, will it go to him??????? xD
Quoting 30. Llamaluvr:
I think we're all waiting for StormTrackerScott to analyze the situation.


Hey, I like that guy!
I don't mind his analyzing, but I do notice he watches for FL like I watch for TX, haha, so I ribbed him a little about the Low in the BOC yesterday.
54. josF
Thanks for keeping us updated Dr Masters.
Quoting 52. Torito:


Not to mention, will it go to him??????? xD


Okay -- when he comes on, I will probably be offline again, but people really need to get some good pics of Shark-nado-type stuff going for him, haha.
Quoting 55. WalkingInTheSun:


Okay -- when he comes on, I will probably be offline again, but people really need to get some good pics of Shark-nado-type stuff going for him, haha.


Here, happy now? :)




That UFO is still flying around lekima...

This might eventually need da yellow crayon.

THE END?



Quoting 19. WalkingInTheSun:





Awesome picture.
With a little imagination, it could sort of look like angels fighting. Sort of like vivid 3D animation or something.

EDIT: actually, reminds me of some of the old Marvel comics -- stuff like X-men, Cable, etc. when you zoom in closer. Cool.



I'll have what you're having. :)
000
ABNT20 KNHC 241717
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 24 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENZO...LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN WELL EAST OF BERMUDA.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FIVE DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

Quoting Torito:


In December and even January as well...........

Hurricane Alice spanned 2 calendar years.

Link

I hit two royal flushes on the same night...at the same video poker machine...and one was dealt to me! The odds of all three events happening in the same session are a little less than 3 million to 1. Although I remember that night 28 years ago fondly, and wish it would happen again, it never has and I don't go into a casino with any expectation that it will. That's about how I feel like the odds are of a new hurricane this season. :-)
Quoting 62. sar2401:

I hit two royal flushes on the same night...at the same video poker machine...and one was dealt to me! The odds of all three events happening in the same session are a little less than 3 million to 1. Although I remember that night 28 years ago fondly, and wish it would happen again, it never has and I don't go into a casino with any expectation that it will. That's about how I feel like the odds are of a new hurricane this season. :-)


Yea, my forecast of 16-3-1 was a little off.

right now we are at 12-2-0, so I need 4-1-1 more. :)


Still socked in here. (image will change). Wasn't supposed to be like this. Should have been in the 80's last two days. The 7 day I posted 2 days ago was all 80's except the 73(rain chance) at the end.



62.3 right now. Won't be warm today.
not much change to the 12z from 6z








little instability
nice surface low



Why can't we ever have nice things like instability
Conditions for the Caribbean disturbance are marginal at best. Low level vort is good, shear is low but expected to increase, lack of any convergence, and divergence is mainly responsible for ongoing convection. Conditions are marginal for a few days and then to the West it's death for any storm moving that direction. If this heads NE and then ENE it could have a chance at fish status but looking like this will never amount to anything. First couple weeks of November could be a very different story. GFS has been stubbornly showing a strong system in the Caribbean around that time frame for days and days now. Season could end with a bang, but a lot of things would have to line up for that to happen.
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
But this looks to develop more monsoonal in nature and looks like it steals moisture from the developing EPAC storm, so this might be bigger than Karen. I do agree there will likely be shear and dry air in the Gulf, but the system develops before reaching the Gulf unlike Karen. We will see this is 2013 anyways, so knowing the luck of the Atlantic the MJO might fall flat on its face before something can get going.

Caleb, the low here in SE Alabama was 39. Should go down to 34 Saturday. It's 72 with a dewpoint of 44. The water temperature off Panama City is 77. We'll have another cold front hit the Gulf Sunday.

The Gulf is a dead doornail when it come to stealing moisture from anywhere.
Quoting Torito:


Yea, my forecast of 16-3-1 was a little off.

right now we are at 12-2-0, so I need 4-1-1 more. :)

I nailed the total at 12 and got close with hurricanes at 3, but I guessed at 2 majors, and the chances of one are about the same as me having another night like the one I described. :-)
Sar two weeks ago said we were done for the season with his typical snarky reasoning. He was wrong then and he may well be wrong about a November cane. A lot would have to conditionally come together, but to call it 3 million to 1 is typical Sar superiority thinking and is really silly and way off what the real chance at a November hurricane is; which is closer to 15-20% this year.
Quoting 67. Tribucanes:
Conditions for the Caribbean disturbance are marginal at best. Low level vort is good, shear is low but expected to increase, lack of any convergence, and divergence is mainly responsible for ongoing convection. Conditions are marginal for a few days and then to the West it's death for any storm moving that direction. If this heads NE and then ENE it could have a chance at fish status but looking like this will never amount to anything. First couple weeks of November could be a very different story. GFS has been stubbornly showing a strong system in the Caribbean around that time frame for days and days now. Season could end with a bang, but a lot of things would have to line up for that to happen.
Here is something to think about, vorticity from one of these systems in the WPAC gets caught up in the mid-latitude upper level trough that sweeps across the Pacific and through the CONUS and breaks off and forms a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Basin. Also, correlation of Indian Ocean TC Phaillin and the current MJO Wave Propagation with the formation of a potential TC in the Atlantic Basin, lets see if we get a clone system as strong as Phaillin, wouldn't that be something remarkable and something to add to the study of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
Quoting washingtonian115:
This is what the storm of 1878 would have looked like over my area...


2,000,000 USD in 1878 equals about 46.9 million USD in 2012. But that just seems to be the financial toll in the mid-atlantic States, I wasn't able to quickly find cost estimates from Cuba. 71 dead and many homes destroyed. Quite the monster.
Maybe the snow will come down in OK

Quoting 68. sar2401:

Caleb, the low here in SE Alabama was 39. Should go down to 34 Saturday. It's 72 with a dewpoint of 44. The water temperature off Panama City is 77. We'll have another cold front hit the Gulf Sunday.

The Gulf is a dead doornail when it come to stealing moisture from anywhere.
That means nothing if we see temperatures like this in the Southeast, a ridge over top is favorable for tropical development.





Halloween trick yet to come
asd of Halloween night

gets its act together at hr 144



wondering where it would go east or west after that?
either way it seems to be a 988 MB low thats a pretty good CAT 1
Quoting 78. MiamiHeat305:


wondering where it would go east or west after that?
either way it seems to be a 988 MB low thats a pretty good CAT 1
Climatology says East, caught up in the prevailing westerlies when it gets above 20-25 N.
Quoting 79. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Climatology says East, caught up in the prevailing westerlies when it gets above 20-25 N.



this is whats showing for precip and pressure for nov 3rd

Quoting 79. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Climatology says East, caught up in the prevailing westerlies when it gets above 20-25 N.


now we just have to wait and see if gfs keeps it and does not drop it next run lol
Quoting 72. 47n91w:


2,000,000 USD in 1878 equals about 46.9 million USD in 2012. But that just seems to be the financial toll in the mid-atlantic States, I wasn't able to quickly find cost estimates from Cuba. 71 dead and many homes destroyed. Quite the monster.


That takes into account inflation. It doesn't take into account economic growth. As a percentage of GDP $2,000,000 in 1878 would probably be in the billions today.
Kate was a beautiful November hurricane in the GOM.

Quoting 83. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Kate was a beautiful November hurricane in the GOM.



maybe this year will break the 8 yr streak of a hurricane for FL could you imagine out of all the years in 2013 and in November lol
EP, 17, 2013102418, , BEST, 0, 148N, 1063W, 45, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 20, 0, 40, 1008, 150, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, RAYMOND, D,
Quoting 84. MiamiHeat305:


maybe this year will break the 8 yr streak of a hurricane for FL could you imagine out of all the years in 2013 and in November lol
ya don't want a hurricane in November trust me if ya don't like the cold then ya don't want a cane
Fukushima readies for dangerous operation to remove 400 tons of spent fuel
Published time: October 23, 2013 19:34
Edited time: October 24, 2013 11:53


Fukushima operator TEPCO is getting ready for its toughest and the most dangerous clean-up operation. In November it will try to remove 400 tons of spent fuel from plant’s Reactor No. 4. But even a little mistake may result in a new nuclear disaster.

The operation is scheduled to start in the beginning of November and be completed by around the end of 2014.

Under normal circumstances, the operation to remove all the fuel would take about 100 days. TEPCO (Tokyo Electric Power Co) initially planned to take two years, but reduced the schedule to one year in recognition of the urgency, as even a minor earthquake could trigger an uncontrolled fuel leak.

During this period TEPCO plans to carefully remove more than 1,300 used fuel rod assemblies, packing radiation 14,000 times the equivalent of the Hiroshima nuclear bomb, from their cooling pool.

The base of the pool where the fuel assemblies are situated is 18 meters above ground and the rods are 7 meters under the surface of the water.

TEPCO’s first task is to remove the debris from the Reactor No. 4 fuel pool.

Then, one by one, the fuel rods will be removed from the top store of the damaged building using a crane suspended above the crippled reactor.

Previously a computer-controlled process, this time it has to be done completely manually. And this is what makes this removal operation extremely dangerous.

The fuel rods must be kept submerged and must not touch each other or break.

“The operation to begin removing fuel from such a severely damaged pool has never been attempted before. The rods are unwieldy and very heavy, each one weighing two-thirds of a ton,” fallout researcher Christina Consolo earlier told RT.

Should the attempt fail, a mishandled rod could be exposed to air and catch fire, resulting in horrific quantities of radiation released into the atmosphere. The resulting radiation will be too great for the cooling pool to absorb as it simply has not been designed to do so.

In the worst-case scenario, the pool could come crashing to the ground, dumping the rods together into a pile that could fission and cause an explosion many times worse than in March 2011.

“The worst-case scenario could play out in death to billions of people. A true apocalypse,” Consolo said.

Reactor No. 4 contains 10 times more Cesium-137 than Chernobyl did. This lets scientists warn that in case of another nuclear disaster, it will be the beginning of the ultimate catastrophe of the world and the planet.

“It will be one of the worst, but most important jobs anyone has ever had to do. And even if executed flawlessly, there are still many things that could go wrong,” Consolo said.

The World Nuclear Report, released in July 2013, said “the worst-case scenario” will require evacuation of up to 10 million people within a 250-kilometer radius of Fukushima, including a significant part of Tokyo.

Although some experts are skeptical, TEPCO is confident the operation will be a success. Last year two fuel rods were successfully removed from the pool in a test operation, but back then rod assemblies were empty and posed a far smaller threat.

The operation will be just one installment in the decommissioning process for the plant, and is forecast to take about 40 years and cost $11 billion.

TEPCO, responsible for the clean-up, is struggling to cope with the aftermath of the nuclear disaster, but with the crisis over radiation-contaminated water at the plant, it has been criticized for its ad hoc response to the disaster. In August TEPCO pleaded for overseas help to contain the radioactive fallout, after 18 months of trying to control it internally.

The Japanese government was also ordered to take a more active role in controlling the overflow of radioactive water being flushed over the melted reactors in Units 1, 2 and 3 at the plant.

Three of the Fukushima plant’s nuclear reactors were damaged by an earthquake-triggered tsunami on March 11, 2011, which led to a nuclear disaster. The plant has been accumulating radioactive water ever since. The government imposed a 20-kilometer ‘no-go’ zone around the plant area.
There aren't any official GDP figures from the 19th century. This private site says $8.379 billion for the USA in 1878. Can't vouch for it but I'll accept it for this exercise. The BEA has GDP last quarter at $16.661 trillion.

As a percentage of GDP $2 million in 1878 is like $4 billion now.
The ECMWF is now completely abaondoning the severe weather solution it had
Quoting 78. MiamiHeat305:


wondering where it would go east or west after that?
either way it seems to be a 988 MB low thats a pretty good CAT 1
. That looks omnious , probably Hurricane Melissa , and moving probably east towards west coast of Florida , could be stronger , all it takes is one bad storm , makes a season a bad on , just look at 92 ! The A storm ! And anyone who says the Gulf is dead as a doornail should reexamine there facts, nothing in the tropics is ever dead , remember hurricanes , tropical storms can happen at any time of the year , despite conditions !
Pat .. if there are 1300 spent fuel rods each weighing 2/3 of a ton .. how do they come up with the 400 tons ??
They are fuel rod assemblies, as I understand it.



Fukushima, Fuel Rods, and the Crisis of Divided and Distracted Governance

First the essential details. The roughly 1300 used fuel rod assemblies in the pool weigh in the neighbourhood of 300 kilograms and contain radiation equivalent to 14,000 times the amount released in the atomic bomb attack on Hiroshima 68 years ago. Being spent fuel, they contain cesium 137 and Strontium 90, with half-lives of about 30 years. They also contain plutonium 239, with a half-life of 24,000 years. Sheldrick and Slodkowski rightly describe the latter as one of the most toxic substances in the universe. The assemblies are to be removed from a concrete fuel pool 10 metres by 12 metres in area, and from within water 7 metres deep. The structure's base is 18 meters above ground level. Removing fuel assemblies is delicate enough at the best of times, but the pool itself may have been damaged by the quake, the explosion or corrosion from salt water that was poured into the pool when fresh supplies ran out during the crisis. - See more at: http://www.japanfocus.org/-Andrew-DeWit/3987#sthas h.hI7Yw0oc.dpuf
Quoting 91. EyEtoEyE:
. That looks omnious , probably Hurricane Melissa , and moving probably east towards west coast of Florida , could be stronger , all it takes is one bad storm , makes a season a bad on , just look at 92 ! The A storm ! And anyone who says the Gulf is dead as a doornail should reexamine there facts, nothing in the tropics is ever dead , remember hurricanes , tropical storms can happen at any time of the year , despite conditions !


I feel like florida hasnt had a direct hit from a major in forever, right?
Quoting 92. whitewabit:
Pat .. if there are 1300 spent fuel rods each weighing 2/3 of a ton .. how do they come up with the 400 tons ??


It's 'new math'. Just like what their engineers have used when computing the safety measures and the cleanup/recovery!
Quoting 88. Patrap:


--"In the worst-case scenario, the pool could come crashing to the ground, dumping the rods together into a pile that could fission and cause an explosion many times worse than in March 2011."

--"The worst-case scenario could play out in death to billions of people. A true apocalypse..."

--"... in case of another nuclear disaster, it will be the beginning of the ultimate catastrophe of the world and the planet."

--"The World Nuclear Report, released in July 2013, said “the worst-case scenario” will require evacuation of up to 10 million people within a 250-kilometer radius of Fukushima, including a significant part of Tokyo."

...but then there's this heartening bit of news:

--"TEPCO is confident the operation will be a success."

Now I feel better. After all, everything's gone off without a hitch for the company so far, right? I think we can trust them...

(You know, I've been planning a cross-country motorcycle trip for spring, but I might just move it up...)
• Reactor #4 contains 1,535 spent fuel rods which remain highly radioactive.

• These fuel rods currently hold the potential to emit 37 million curies of radiation.

• Those fuel rods are stored in a concrete pool located 100 feet above the ground, inside the structurally compromised reactor building, effectively making the pool open to the air.

• The pool holding these fuel rods is "structurally damaged."

• "If an earthquake or other event were to cause this pool to drain this could result in a catastrophic radiological fire involving nearly 10 times the amount of Cs-137 released by the Chernobyl accident." - Mr. Robert Alvarez, former Senior Policy Adviser to the Secretary and Deputy Assistant Secretary for National Security and the Environment at the U.S. Department of Energy.

• "The infrastructure to safely remove this material was destroyed as it was at the other three reactors." - Mr. Alvarez.

• Just 50 meters from reactor No. 4, a much larger pool of spent fuel rods contains 6,375 fuel rods, all of which remain highly radioactive.

• All these fuel rods are, astonishingly, exposed to the open air. They are not held inside any containment vessel.

• The total number of spent fuel rods across all six reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi site is 11,421.

• If reactor No. 4 suffers a structural failure, the release of radiation from the 1,535 spent fuel rods would make it virtually impossible for work to continue on the site, potentially resulting in an inability to halt a massive radiation release from all the other rods.

• In all, the 11,421 fuel rods held at the Fukushima Daiichi facility contain roughly 336 million curies of "long-lived radioactivity." Roughly 134 million curies of that is Cesium-137.


Learn more: http://www.naturalnews.com/035789_Fukushima_Cesium -137_Plume-Gate.html##ixzz2ifRyjafd
Quoting 97. Neapolitan:
--(You know, I've been planning a cross-country motorcycle trip for spring, but I might just move it up...)


Harley, Ducati or rice burner?
Looking since this morning the blob just west of Yucatan,I believe if this cluster get a little bit more East,North of the Yucatan Peninsula,we might see something going on,this front tail ends this time of year are dangerous!!!,just keeping and eye!.
WOAH. Raymond may become stronger than it was originally.... 0.0

RIP LORENZO >:]

One year ago today: Sandy hit Jamaica


And then totally shrugged it off.
Quoting 84. MiamiHeat305:


maybe this year will break the 8 yr streak of a hurricane for FL could you imagine out of all the years in 2013 and in November lol


Trying to get a hurricane to form in the Western Caribbean and then move north and make it all the way to Florida is difficult to do, in November.

There are so many potential obstacles in the pathway, such as plunging SSTs, increasing wind shear the further north it goes, dry air advection and so on.

Not saying it can't happen but it is rare. Kate in 1985 happened in a Fall season when the cold fronts mostly stayed away, prior to her arrival. November of 1985 was an unusually warm month in Florida. And 1985 was definitely a much different type of hurricane season than is 2013. There had already been at least one major hurricane (Elena) in the Gulf that year, for instance. The atmosphere over the Atlantic Basin was "storm friendly" during that season, unlike this one.
Quoting 100. DonnieBwkGA:


Harley, Ducati or rice burner?
Probably my Suzuki Intruder, a cruiser. It's a smooth ride on long trips...
Quoting 34. Torito:



Touching story, but alas... I have no spare cash. :'(


No worry Torito, I will double my donation to cover you. Thank you for your concern for our Veterans.

Navy 1976-1981


early cycle models are less bullish than the late cycle models, but still makes raymond run back at hurricane status again.
Quoting 78. MiamiHeat305:


wondering where it would go east or west after that?
either way it seems to be a 988 MB low thats a pretty good CAT 1


At 384 hours I wouldn't pay too much attention to it. Model forecasting is bad at best that far out.

But wait, models can accurately forecast what our climate will be like 100 years from now. Hmmm, what to believe?
Quoting 107. Pipejazz:


No worry Torito, I will double my donation to cover you. Thank you for your concern for our Veterans.

Navy 1976-1981


I feel so much better. :3

Eyewall replacement cycle almost complete. :)

This is what an eyewall replacement cycle looks like. A new eyewall forms outside of the old eyewall, and then the convection between the 2 eyewalls dissipates, leaving an entirely new eye to boot.

This is the first time I have captured the MIMIC models displaying this amazing feat of nature.

Notice the weakening occuring during this cycle (top left of the image). This is perfectly normal while an eyewall replacement cycle is in progress.



Look at the BOC!

Quoting 91. EyEtoEyE:
. That looks omnious , probably Hurricane Melissa , and moving probably east towards west coast of Florida , could be stronger , all it takes is one bad storm , makes a season a bad on , just look at 92 ! The A storm ! And anyone who says the Gulf is dead as a doornail should reexamine there facts, nothing in the tropics is ever dead , remember hurricanes , tropical storms can happen at any time of the year , despite conditions !


Most of your statement is generally correct, except for the last two words. When tropical cyclones happen at unusual times of the year, it is not despite conditions. It is because the conditions happen to be unusually favorable. When conditions are not favorable they don't happen.
Quoting 99. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
• Reactor #4 contains 1,535 spent fuel rods which remain highly radioactive.

• These fuel rods currently hold the potential to emit 37 million curies of radiation.

• Those fuel rods are stored in a concrete pool located 100 feet above the ground, inside the structurally compromised reactor building, effectively making the pool open to the air.

• The pool holding these fuel rods is "structurally damaged."

• "If an earthquake or other event were to cause this pool to drain this could result in a catastrophic radiological fire involving nearly 10 times the amount of Cs-137 released by the Chernobyl accident." - Mr. Robert Alvarez, former Senior Policy Adviser to the Secretary and Deputy Assistant Secretary for National Security and the Environment at the U.S. Department of Energy.

• "The infrastructure to safely remove this material was destroyed as it was at the other three reactors." - Mr. Alvarez.

• Just 50 meters from reactor No. 4, a much larger pool of spent fuel rods contains 6,375 fuel rods, all of which remain highly radioactive.

• All these fuel rods are, astonishingly, exposed to the open air. They are not held inside any containment vessel.

• The total number of spent fuel rods across all six reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi site is 11,421.

• If reactor No. 4 suffers a structural failure, the release of radiation from the 1,535 spent fuel rods would make it virtually impossible for work to continue on the site, potentially resulting in an inability to halt a massive radiation release from all the other rods.

• In all, the 11,421 fuel rods held at the Fukushima Daiichi facility contain roughly 336 million curies of "long-lived radioactivity." Roughly 134 million curies of that is Cesium-137.


Learn more: http://www.naturalnews.com/035789_Fukushima_Cesium -137_Plume-Gate.html##ixzz2ifRyjafd
In other words, one misstep and much of the northern half of Japan--becomes a more-or-less permanent ghost town.

Sounds like fun...
Quoting 109. luvtogolf:


At 384 hours I wouldn't pay too much attention to it. Model forecasting is bad at best that far out.

But wait, models can accurately forecast what our climate will be like 100 years from now. Hmmm, what to believe?
What to believe? Believe scientists--or, you know, the dictionary--when they tell you climate and weather aren't the same.
Quoting 114. Neapolitan:
In other words, one misstep and much of the northern half of Japan--becomes a more-or-less permanent ghost town.

Sounds like fun...


not to be mean but iam glad I live here

hopefully everything goes well hopefully
I am hearing people from towns nearby that they saw a mix of snow/sleet/rain earlier today...... :D :D :D :D :D Mood Boost: +10000000
Quoting 114. Neapolitan:
In other words, one misstep and much of the northern half of Japan--becomes a more-or-less permanent ghost town.

Sounds like fun...


Oooooooooh!

Quoting 119. DonnieBwkGA:
Oooooooooh!

I kind of want this to develop so the blog can get active again and your comment as soon as you post it end up on the next page. :D
Quoting 111. Torito:
Eyewall replacement cycle almost complete. :)

This is what an eyewall replacement cycle looks like. A new eyewall forms outside of the old eyewall, and then the convection between the 2 eyewalls dissipates, leaving an entirely new eye to boot.

This is the first time I have captured the MIMIC models displaying this amazing feat of nature.

Notice the weakening occuring during this cycle (top left of the image). This is perfectly normal while an eyewall replacement cycle is in progress.





I posted a blog about this, for those that wanted to comment about it.

Link
Quoting 119. DonnieBwkGA:
Oooooooooh!

Quoting 119. DonnieBwkGA:
Oooooooooh!



i thought it was a 988mb low on the same run at 384 hrs out lol is that a different gfs?
was larger in the other run i saw too ...
Quoting 122. MiamiHeat305:


i thought it was a 988mb low on the same run at 384 hrs out lol is that a different gfs?
was larger in the other run i saw too ...


yea that is the gfs full res. the normal model is just plain gfs. :)
Quoting 123. Torito:


yea that is the gfs full res. the normal model is just plain gfs. :)

oh okay thanks :)
Quoting 124. MiamiHeat305:

oh okay thanks :)


Normal GFS:

Link

GFS Full Res:

Link
Quoting 118. MrMixon:


At least the cat has nine lives.
Quoting 125. Torito:


Normal GFS:

Link

GFS Full Res:

Link

one question though always kind of wondered the different models.. are they fed the same info and come up with different solutions and apparently everyone likes the GFS seems to be the most reliable?
Lekima on modis.... added to my blog....



Blog is here.

Link
Quoting 127. MiamiHeat305:

one question though always kind of wondered the different models.. are they fed the same info and come up with different solutions and apparently everyone likes the GFS seems to be the most reliable?


As far as I know, yes, they are each based on different conditions/solutions. Also, many people use the GFS and NAM for the tropics.

:)
Quoting 111. Torito:
Eyewall replacement cycle almost complete. :)

This is what an eyewall replacement cycle looks like. A new eyewall forms outside of the old eyewall, and then the convection between the 2 eyewalls dissipates, leaving an entirely new eye to boot.

This is the first time I have captured the MIMIC models displaying this amazing feat of nature.

Notice the weakening occuring during this cycle (top left of the image). This is perfectly normal while an eyewall replacement cycle is in progress.





Nice concentric eyewalls!
Technical Attachment
AN OVERVIEW OF NHC PREDICTION MODELS

Bernard N. Meisner
Scientific Services Division
National Weather Service Southern Region


Introduction

Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) have a variety of prediction models available to provide guidance for their forecasts of tropical cyclone tracks and intensity. The intent of this paper is to provide a brief overview of each of the models. Forecasters may find this information helpful when considering NHC discussions which mention the performance of individual models. A primary reference is provided after the summary of each model for readers who desire more information. NOTE: All thumbnail graphics in this Web document are linked to larger version of the graphics. Just click the thumbnail to view the larger version.

As noted by Neumann (1979), models for the prediction of tropical cyclone motion and intensity may be classified as either statistical or dynamical. Statistical models rely on what has happened-the climatology of past storms, for example. Dynamical models can be classified as either barotropic or baroclinic. Statistical-dynamical models are an intermediate class that incorporate numerically forecast data into a statistical prediction framework, similar to the Model Output Statistics used to provide guidance for specific parameters such as temperature and probability of precipitation.
Quoting 130. GatorWX:


Nice concentric eyewalls!


Indeed, I have not seen anything like this in a LONG time....... :P
GFS - NCEP's Global Forecast System

The numerical model used for NCEP's global data assimilation system and for the aviation (AVN) and medium-range forecasts (MRF) is the global spectral model, now known as the Global Forecast System (GFS). As one might guess from its name, the "aviation model" was not specifically developed to predict hurricane motion or intensity. Rather, one of the primary uses of the GFS is to produce forecasts for aviation guidance worldwide. The GFS model is run four times each day at the primary and intermediate synoptic times (0000, 0600, 1200 and 1800 UTC) with a wait of 2.75 hr for data arrival. Forecasts are made out to Day 16.

The GFS is a baroclinic-dynamical model. Like the GHM, the model is a primitive equation model which predicts winds, temperature, surface pressure, humidity, and precipitation. The prediction equations include the divergence and vorticity equations, the hydrostatic equation, the thermodynamic equation, a mass continuity equation, and a conservation equation for water vapor.

The GFS differs from the GFDL Hurricane Model (GHM) model in that it has a global domain, and the fields within the model are represented by a set of mathematical (sine and cosine) functions rather than values at discreet grid points. The forecast equations are solved for the coefficients of the mathematical functions.

The GFS currently is configured to handle 382 triagular waves across the globe (comparable resolution to a grid point model with a grid spacing of 37 km) and has 64 vertical levels. For integrations between 7 1/2 and 16 days the horizontal resolution is reduced to 190 triangular waves.

In July, 2000, a numerical scheme was implemented to change how tropical cyclone vorticies are initialized in the global spectral model (Technical Procedure Bulletin). In the past, bogus observations based on the National Hurricane Center's estimates of storm location, intensity and size were input to the model's analysis scheme. This has been replaced by a procedure that relocates the vortex in the "first guess" field (the forecast from the previous run of the model) to the correct location.

The relocation procedure takes the model guess field and moves the hurricane vortex to the correct location before the model's analysis is completed. The steps can be briefly summarized as:

Use a spectral filter to separate the total wind field into Basic and Disturbance fields. (Long waves predominate in the Basic wind field while short waves predominate in the Disturbance wind field.)

Locate the hurricane vortex center in the Disturbance wind field,

Separate the hurricane model's vortex from the non-hurricane component in the Disturbance wind field,

Combine the Basic wind field and non-hurricane component of the Disturbance wind field into the Environmental wind field.

Move the extracted hurricane vortex to the NHC official position.

If the vortex is too weak in the guess field, add bogus observations to the model analysis.

The data assimilation scheme uses the revised guess field and all available observations to produce the final analysis for input to the forecast model.

This animated GIF Vortex replacement procedure flow chart depicts the vortex relocation procedure in a flow-chart format.

The vortex is not relocated if the center of the hurricane is over a major land mass or if the topography in the filtered domain is greater than 500 m in elevation. When the procedure was tested in retrospect on the 1999 hurricane season forecasts, the average track forecasts improved by approximately 30% over that of the operational AVN model. The skill of the AVN track forecasts during the 2000 Atlantic season were significantly better than those of previous years.


Skill of AVN track forecasts for 1995-2000

In May, 2001, momentum mixing was included in GFS model's cumulus parameterization scheme. Tests showed this reduces tropical storm false alarm forecasts. Additional changes made to the model at that time were expected to improve the skill in tropical circulation forecasts at all time ranges.

In July, 2006, the vertical coordinate of the GFS was changed from terrain following sigma to a hybrid sigma-pressure coordinate system. The hybrid coordinate is being adopting by modeling centers around the globe and provides improved performance in upper troposphere and stratosphere. Retrospective runs made of some 2005 hurricanes suggest the forecast track skill will not change, while forecast strength may be better than before for hurricanes. Reference: Kanamitsu, M., 1989: Description of the NMC global data assimilation and forecast system. Wea. Forecasting, 4, 335-342.
Quoting 95. nwobilderburg:


I feel like florida hasnt had a direct hit from a major in forever, right?
. Since 1921 ! For the Tampa Bay Area.
Quoting 129. Torito:


As far as I know, yes, they are each based on different conditions/solutions. Also, many people use the GFS and NAM for the tropics.

:)

...who uses the NAM for the tropics?
Quoting 135. wxchaser97:

...who uses the NAM for the tropics?


ME, for one. LOL xD

It is actually pretty good for short range model runs, as well as NE Coast landfall locations.
Quoting 136. Torito:


ME, for one. LOL xD

It is actually pretty good for short range model runs, as well as NE Coast landfall locations.
It also nailed the track of Lee.
Bay of Campeche,getting very interesting!!
Quoting 138. Hurricane1956:
Bay of Campeche,getting very interesting!!

how?
Quoting 118. MrMixon:




My question is not "Can the kitty get the pretty balloon?".
My question is,"How in the world did the kitty get up on top of the door in the first place?"

(I will guess via some clever photo-shopping.)
Quoting 139. MiamiHeat305:

how?


probably this...



:P
Quoting 140. WalkingInTheSun:


My question is not "Can the kitty get the pretty balloon?".
My question is,"How in the world did the kitty get up on top of the door in the first place?"

(I will guess via some clever photo-shopping.)


or, someone put it there. xD
Quoting 97. Neapolitan:
--"In the worst-case scenario, the pool could come crashing to the ground, dumping the rods together into a pile that could fission and cause an explosion many times worse than in March 2011."

--"The worst-case scenario could play out in death to billions of people. A true apocalypse..."

--"... in case of another nuclear disaster, it will be the beginning of the ultimate catastrophe of the world and the planet."

--"The World Nuclear Report, released in July 2013, said “the worst-case scenario” will require evacuation of up to 10 million people within a 250-kilometer radius of Fukushima, including a significant part of Tokyo."

...but then there's this heartening bit of news:

--"TEPCO is confident the operation will be a success."

Now I feel better. After all, everything's gone off without a hitch for the company so far, right? I think we can trust them...

(You know, I've been planning a cross-country motorcycle trip for spring, but I might just move it up...)


After 3-mile Island,....I never did care much for nuclear energy nor for all the schemes to dump the spent, radioactive waste in "other people's backyards" -- states & counties FAR from those who created the nasty stuff, by govt decision dominating the locals who often don't want it.
If you look at these 2 images, you will see that at 3 AM Sunday, as far as the cones of uncertainties are concerned, these 2 storms can get rather close to each other. 2 questions, how close do 2 tropical systems have to be before they start interacting? And do the models take this interaction factor into account when they forecast track?



Quoting 136. Torito:


ME, for one. LOL xD

It is actually pretty good for short range model runs, as well as NE Coast landfall locations.

It may be good for North America, but for predicting tropical cyclone genesis and intensity it is pretty useless. Pretty much it's in the same category as the CMC and NAVGEM.
Quoting 140. WalkingInTheSun:


My question is not "Can the kitty get the pretty balloon?".
My question is,"How in the world did the kitty get up on top of the door in the first place?"

(I will guess via some clever photo-shopping.)


The kitty got there by putting a nuclear power plant just above sea-level in an earthquake and tsunami-prone area...

(If you mean the actual kitty, not the symbolic kitty - a book shelf out of frame to the right could explain it...)
Quoting 99. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
• "If an earthquake or other event were to cause this pool to drain this could result in a catastrophic radiological fire involving nearly 10 times the amount of Cs-137 released by the Chernobyl accident." - Mr. Robert Alvarez, former Senior Policy Adviser to the Secretary and Deputy Assistant Secretary for National Security and the Environment at the U.S. Department of Energy.




Learn more: http://www.naturalnews.com/035789_Fukushima_Cesium -137_Plume-Gate.html##ixzz2ifRyjafd


IMO, this sounds like a job for our beloved politicians. What say we all vote to immediately send them there to fix the problem! Even if they fail, we still come out winners, right?
Quoting 68. sar2401:

Caleb, the low here in SE Alabama was 39. Should go down to 34 Saturday. It's 72 with a dewpoint of 44. The water temperature off Panama City is 77. We'll have another cold front hit the Gulf Sunday.

The Gulf is a dead doornail when it come to stealing moisture from anywhere.


With the notable exception of the Southern/SE Gulf currently south of the front and south of the shear. Florida Straits and S. FL are still in the zone for potential cyclones.
Quoting 134. EyEtoEyE:
. Since 1921 ! For the Tampa Bay Area.


I've lived in the Tampa area for a very long time. We have not had a direct land falling hurricane of any strength in Tampa since - well I can't remember.

Jeanne and Francis came from the East. Elena came close. Gladys gave us a scare. Lot's of weak tropical storms with good rains. Josephine was a pretty good TS. A ton of hurricane threats but they always seem to hit somewhere else. So, sustained hurricane force winds? Just about never.
Quoting 139. MiamiHeat305:

how?
A lot moisture! and a big blob!,in my opinion if this blob continue to move East and get into the Yucatan Channel it my by the genesis for something,this is the area that we have to keep a eye this time of year for some tropical development,we have to wait and see what happens the next 24 hours.
Quoting 145. wxchaser97:

It may be good for North America, but for predicting tropical cyclone genesis and intensity it is pretty useless. Pretty much it's in the same category as the CMC and NAVGEM.


hence, i also said, hurricane landfall locations. :)
Quoting 96. DonnieBwkGA:


It's 'new math'. Just like what their engineers have used when computing the safety measures and the cleanup/recovery!


What can go wrong?
Maybe their govt will get the same top-notch kind of crew on that as the USA got for making the Obamacare website!
Quoting 151. Torito:


hence, i also said, hurricane landfall locations. :)

Should've clarified that when I said NA, I meant more for mesoscale/winter weather events.
Quoting 145. wxchaser97:

It may be good for North America, but for predicting tropical cyclone genesis and intensity it is pretty useless. Pretty much it's in the same category as the CMC and NAVGEM.
The CMC nailed Andrea, NAVGEM nailed Ingrid. Every model has their moments and flops. It's just the way the weather works sometimes and how one model sees something different than the others.
Quoting 154. GTstormChaserCaleb:
The CMC nailed Andrea, NAVGEM nailed Ingrid. Every model has their moments and flops. It's just the way the weather works sometimes and how one model sees something different than the others.

True, just saying that generally the CMC, NAVGEM, and NAM are not as reliable as the ECMWF, UKMET, and GFS. And yeah, no model is near perfect.
Just read Dr. Master's post today.

What caught my attention was Lekima's "eye expanded greatly in size while the storm stayed at Category 5 strength". What I found odd about this is that it sounded as if the old eye itself grew, as opposed to a new, larger eye replacing the old smaller eye as the old collapses in on itself, effectively meaning that the eyewall replacement cycle was skipped entirely.

If a tropical system can pull this feat, why don't all do so? What made this possible?

Also, if the eyewall replacement cycle can be skipped, how strong can a tropical system actually become? To my understanding, the EWRC is a major hindrance to a storm's power, because it takes time to complete, and the absolute ideal conditions for strengthening tend to fade away.

This is truly fascinating, and frightening.

Hurricane Juan near peak intensity

Formed October 26, 1985

Dissipated November 1, 1985

Highest winds 1-minute sustained:

85 mph (140 km/h)

Lowest pressure 971 mbar (hPa); 28.67 inHg

Fatalities 24 direct, 50 indirect

Damage $2.8 billion (1985 USD)

(Includes indirect losses)

Areas affected Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida Panhandle

Part of the 1985 Atlantic hurricane season

Hurricane Juan was a hurricane that formed in October 1985 and looped twice near the Louisiana coast, causing torrential flooding for several days. Juan was the costliest hurricane of the 1985 Atlantic hurricane season, and at the time was among the costliest of all historical U.S. hurricanes.
Juan was the last of three hurricanes to affect Louisiana during the season, including Danny in August and Elena in early September.

An upper level low pressure system combined with a tropical wave developed a broad trough of low pressure over the central Gulf of Mexico on October 24. A rapid increase in cloudiness and convection led to the formation of a tropical depression on October 26. A high pressure system to its northeast forced it westward, where it became Tropical Storm Juan later on October 26.

At the time and throughout its lifetime, Juan was very disorganized, and resembled a subtropical cyclone with its winds well away from the center. A developing trough brought the storm northward, where it became better organized. Early on October 28, Juan reached hurricane strength, and hours later it reached a peak of 85 mph (140 km/h) winds.

Under the influence of a large scale upper-level low pressure area, Juan executed a cyclonic loop off the Louisiana coast later on October 28. It turned northward, and hit near Morgan City, Louisiana on the morning of October 29. Still under the influence of the low, Juan again looped to the southeast, and weakened to a tropical storm over land on October 29, and emerged into the Gulf of Mexico on October 30 over Vermilion Bay.

Juan paralleled the southern Louisiana coastline and crossed the extreme southeast portion of the state on October 31. Over the open waters of the Gulf, Juan restrengthened to a 70 mph (110 km/h) storm, just before hitting near the Alabama/Florida border that night. Once over land, Juan rapidly weakened, and became extratropical over Tennessee on November 1. Its remnants accelerated northward into Canada by the morning of November 3.

Of interest, an upper level low closed off in the wake of Juan, forming a new occluded cyclone, which added to the rainfall totals across Virginia and West Virginia. The combined impact of Juan and the occluded cyclone that formed in its wake led to a flood of record size across West Virginia.


Aftermath[edit]

On October 28, Governor of Louisiana Edwin Edwards declared a state of emergency. By the following day, Governor Edwards requested that Louisiana's United States House of Representatives delegation ask President of the United States Ronald Reagan for a disaster declaration.

President Reagan responded and issued a disaster declaration on November 1, which included the parishes of Ascension, Jefferson, Lafourche, Livingston, Plaquemines, Saint Bernard, Saint Charles, Saint John the Baptist, Saint Tammany, Tangipahoa, and Terrebonne, as well as the Lower Ninth Ward of New Orleans.

WIND SHEAR OVER 70 KNOTS IN THE GOM!!
Quoting 156. AldreteMichael:
Just read Dr. Master's post today.

What caught my attention was Lekima's "eye expanded greatly in size while the storm stayed at Category 5 strength". What I found odd about this is that it sounded as if the old eye itself grew, as opposed to a new, larger eye replacing the old smaller eye as the old collapses in on itself, effectively meaning that the eyewall replacement cycle was skipped entirely.

If a tropical system can pull this feat, why don't all do so? What made this possible?

Also, if the eyewall replacement cycle can be skipped, how strong can a tropical system actually become? To my understanding, the EWRC is a major hindrance to a storm's power, because it takes time to complete, and the absolute ideal conditions for strengthening tend to fade away.

This is truly fascinating, and frightening.


I believe it shows us well that we don't understand RI, nor eyewall replacement cycles as well as previously mentioned.

Katrina was going into a uptick from a new eyewall cycling upwards as it came ashore.



I believe Camille came ashore at a peak uptick and sustained static thru impact inland 20 miles or so as well.

Each storm presents a challenge as to eyewall cycling status as it has a great deal of importance to landfall impacts.

Interesting thoughts.

Quoting 156. AldreteMichael:
Just read Dr. Master's post today.

What caught my attention was Lekima's "eye expanded greatly in size while the storm stayed at Category 5 strength". What I found odd about this is that it sounded as if the old eye itself grew, as opposed to a new, larger eye replacing the old smaller eye as the old collapses in on itself, effectively meaning that the eyewall replacement cycle was skipped entirely.

If a tropical system can pull this feat, why don't all do so? What made this possible?

Also, if the eyewall replacement cycle can be skipped, how strong can a tropical system actually become? To my understanding, the EWRC is a major hindrance to a storm's power, because it takes time to complete, and the absolute ideal conditions for strengthening tend to fade away.

This is truly fascinating, and frightening.


read my blog for more on that EWRC... I recently wrote one here about it.....
I have lived with a cat who could jump that high all by himself, levitating cat. No power plant nuclear or otherwise involved but they do love sleeping in the Sunshine so maybe Solar powered.
Quoting 146. MrMixon:


The kitty got there by putting a nuclear power plant just above sea-level in an earthquake and tsunami-prone area...

(If you mean the actual kitty, not the symbolic kitty - a book shelf out of frame to the right could explain it...)

Radioactive Water Leaking From Fukushima: Why Millions Of Lives Are At Stake

In lieu of the Japanese government doing the right thing and finally coming clean about the epic environmental catastrophe that is Fukushima, which it hopes to simply dig under the rug even as the inconvenient reality gets worse and thousands of tons of radioactive water make their way into the ocean, one is forced to rely on third-party sources for information on this tragedy. We present a useful primer from Scientific American on Fukushima "water retention" problem and "what you need to know about the radioactive water leaking from Japan's Fukushima nuclear plant into the Pacific Ocean."

Once the integrity of the pool is compromised that will likely lead to more criticalities, which then can spread to other fuel. The heat from this reaction would weaken the structure further, which could then collapse and the contents of the pool end up in a pile of rubble on the ground. This would release an enormous amount of radioactivity, which Arnie Gundersen has referred to as a Gamma Shine Event without precedence, and Dr. Christopher Busby has deemed an "Open-air super reactor spectacular".
Quoting 162. Patrap:
Radioactive Water Leaking From Fukushima: Why Millions Of Lives Are At Stake

In lieu of the Japanese government doing the right thing and finally coming clean about the epic environmental catastrophe that is Fukushima, which it hopes to simply dig under the rug even as the inconvenient reality gets worse and thousands of tons of radioactive water make their way into the ocean, one is forced to rely on third-party sources for information on this tragedy. We present a useful primer from Scientific American on Fukushima "water retention" problem and "what you need to know about the radioactive water leaking from Japan’s Fukushima nuclear plant into the Pacific Ocean."

Once the integrity of the pool is compromised that will likely lead to more criticalities, which then can spread to other fuel. The heat from this reaction would weaken the structure further, which could then collapse and the contents of the pool end up in a pile of rubble on the ground. This would release an enormous amount of radioactivity, which Arnie Gundersen has referred to as a “Gamma Shine Event” without precedence, and Dr. Christopher Busby has deemed an “Open-air super reactor spectacular.”


Just plain lovely, Patrap...

I keep waiting for the international community to demand something be done about Fukushima. Unfortunately, it will take that 'Gamma Shine' event for that to happen.
Eeeek you would think it should be more important to all countries just perhaps not all political entities.
Quoting 163. Dakster:


Just plain lovely, Patrap...

I keep waiting for the international community to demand something be done about Fukushima. Unfortunately, it will take that 'Gamma Shine' event for that to happen.


I'm afraid you may be correct.

And when that "Godzilla is Born", well, Australia will have company seems.

The industry is spending millions a day keeping the Media from the facts in play. But the intranets is killing them as the operation to remove the Fuel rod assemblies starts in November.

That, well, that or a Large EQ will spill it all out like the 3rd Vial from Hades.

Still looks much better than anything the atl has produced through the last three years.



Ophelia, meh, maybe.
Quoting 166. GatorWX:
Still looks much better than anything the atl has produced through the last three years.



Ophelia, meh, maybe.



Here gator. MIMIC image...

Link
Fukushima readies for dangerous operation to remove 400 tons of spent fuel
Published time: October 23, 2013 19:34
Edited time: October 24, 2013 11:53


Fukushima operator TEPCO is getting ready for its toughest and the most dangerous clean-up operation. In November it will try to remove 400 tons of spent fuel from plant’s Reactor No. 4. But even a little mistake may result in a new nuclear disaster.

The operation is scheduled to start in the beginning of November and be completed by around the end of 2014.

Under normal circumstances, the operation to remove all the fuel would take about 100 days. TEPCO (Tokyo Electric Power Co) initially planned to take two years, but reduced the schedule to one year in recognition of the urgency, as even a minor earthquake could trigger an uncontrolled fuel leak.

During this period TEPCO plans to carefully remove more than 1,300 used fuel rod assemblies, packing radiation 14,000 times the equivalent of the Hiroshima nuclear bomb, from their cooling pool.

The base of the pool where the fuel assemblies are situated is 18 meters above ground and the rods are 7 meters under the surface of the water.

TEPCO’s first task is to remove the debris from the Reactor No. 4 fuel pool.

Then, one by one, the fuel rods will be removed from the top store of the damaged building using a crane suspended above the crippled reactor.

Previously a computer-controlled process, this time it has to be done completely manually. And this is what makes this removal operation extremely dangerous.

The fuel rods must be kept submerged and must not touch each other or break.

“The operation to begin removing fuel from such a severely damaged pool has never been attempted before. The rods are unwieldy and very heavy, each one weighing two-thirds of a ton,” fallout researcher Christina Consolo earlier told RT.

Should the attempt fail, a mishandled rod could be exposed to air and catch fire, resulting in horrific quantities of radiation released into the atmosphere. The resulting radiation will be too great for the cooling pool to absorb as it simply has not been designed to do so.

In the worst-case scenario, the pool could come crashing to the ground, dumping the rods together into a pile that could fission and cause an explosion many times worse than in March 2011.

“The worst-case scenario could play out in death to billions of people. A true apocalypse,” Consolo said.

Reactor No. 4 contains 10 times more Cesium-137 than Chernobyl did. This lets scientists warn that in case of another nuclear disaster, it will be the beginning of the ultimate catastrophe of the world and the planet.

“It will be one of the worst, but most important jobs anyone has ever had to do. And even if executed flawlessly, there are still many things that could go wrong,” Consolo said.

The World Nuclear Report, released in July 2013, said “the worst-case scenario” will require evacuation of up to 10 million people within a 250-kilometer radius of Fukushima, including a significant part of Tokyo.

Although some experts are skeptical, TEPCO is confident the operation will be a success. Last year two fuel rods were successfully removed from the pool in a test operation, but back then rod assemblies were empty and posed a far smaller threat.

The operation will be just one installment in the decommissioning process for the plant, and is forecast to take about 40 years and cost $11 billion.

TEPCO, responsible for the clean-up, is struggling to cope with the aftermath of the nuclear disaster, but with the crisis over radiation-contaminated water at the plant, it has been criticized for its ad hoc response to the disaster. In August TEPCO pleaded for overseas help to contain the radioactive fallout, after 18 months of trying to control it internally.

The Japanese government was also ordered to take a more active role in controlling the overflow of radioactive water being flushed over the melted reactors in Units 1, 2 and 3 at the plant.

Three of the Fukushima plant’s nuclear reactors were damaged by an earthquake-triggered tsunami on March 11, 2011, which led to a nuclear disaster. The plant has been accumulating radioactive water ever since. The government imposed a 20-kilometer ‘no-go’ zone around the plant area.

Bye, francisco.

waiting to see what the 18z gfs brings..
o.o patrap..... if the rods touch.... BOOM. :'(
Posts on Fukushima are hard to vet on this site because we have even less knowledge of that subject. Maybe it is true, maybe not. I'd have to go to a more knowledgeable forum to find out.
.
Quoting 172. bappit:
Posts on Fukushima are hard to vet on this site because we have even less knowledge of that subject. Maybe it is true, maybe not. I'd have to go to a more knowledgeable forum to find out.


With TEPCO and Japan keeping everything to themselves, how can anyone vet the information?

All I need to know is a total meltdown and release of all nuclear fuel at the site- all 6 reactors -wouldn't be good.

Hopefully whatever plan they have - works.
Quoting 167. Torito:



Here gator. MIMIC image...

Link


I saw someone post that earlier. Bet it'd look nice on radar.
More snow falling on Beech Mountain, North Carolina.

Link
Is this going to be another Halloween to remember in South Florida?
I agree that the Fukushima disaster is ongoing. It will continue for years. I am disappointed that the Wikipedia article is written in the past tense. They have a separate article giving a timeline of the disaster with the last entry being for August 26, 2013.

People knowledgeable about the general subject should be able to tell what sounds reasonable and what is sensationalism. They would also be able to say what is well-understood about the situation and what is not well understood. I can't tell what is what for the comments posted here. I don't think anyone else on this blog can tell either. Phrases like "open-air super reactor spectacular" do make me leery.
the wind shear in the GOM needs to go down for a tropical storm
National Weather Service New Orleans la
409 PM CDT Thursday Oct 24 2013

Discussion...

fairly benign weather continues across southern Louisiana and
Mississippi. The area still remains under the influence of deep
trough well to the northeast. Another impulse along that feature
will send a cold front through the area overnight. This boundary
will be dry in terms of rain due to the lack of moisture return.
Only effects will be breezy winds overnight through middle morning
Friday and cold air advection. Highs will struggle to reach lower
70s during the day as cooler air mass moves in. These conditions
will continue Friday night/Saturday morning as winds weaken and
strong radiational cooling ensues. The coldest temperatures this
fall are expected with lows dipping into the upper 30s in southwest
Mississippi and lower 40s for the northern half of the County Warning Area.

Quoting 143. WalkingInTheSun:


After 3-mile Island,....I never did care much for nuclear energy nor for all the schemes to dump the spent, radioactive waste in "other people's backyards" -- states & counties FAR from those who created the nasty stuff, by govt decision dominating the locals who often don't want it.


The main reason we even have waste in significant quantities is because ludicrous regulations prevent us from reprocessing it into more fuel. It's a policy problem, not a science or technology problem.

What we do now with nuclear wastes would be the equivalent of filling up your gas tank, driving until you use an 1/8th of it, then throwing out your gas tank as "waste".

The best way to take care of waste of any kind is to recycle as much of it as you can. If we did this with nuclear waste, not only would we get more energy but we would have far less waste products than we do now.
Looks like the Mid-Atlantic may be in for a snowstorm around December 16-19 and Feb 1-3 and Feb 8-11 according to the Farmers Almanac. It also says for a chance of snow in the Mid-Atlantic Area in Mid-November and around Thanksgiving. The Old Farmers Almanac agrees saying the snowiest periods will be in early and mid December and in early to mid Feb. Now people in the Mid-Atlantics feelings may be down for snow but its been at least four years since we got a decent and major snowstorm in this area and i think we could see the major snowstorms in Feb. Now for the cities the urban heat effect is kind of confusing to me a little to me can someone explain how it works and when the temp starts to decline in a city such as Baltimore , Washington DC, Philly , ext. I know the Chesapeake Bay moderates the temps, should i pay attention to the bay temp to know what the temps in the long term might be ? Please reply anyone in the Mid-Atlantic region or anywhere.
Aw, yall know the GFS always tries to scare us with a monster before halloween. I think it's happened before ;)
FEBRUARY 2014
1st-3rd. Intense storm, heavy rain, snow, strong winds. This could seriously impact Super Bowl XLVIII on Feb. 2, which will be played for the 1st time at a cold weather site (New Jersey's MetLife Stadium).
4th-7th. A quiet spell, but unsettled weather returns by 7th.
8th-11th. Coastal snowstorm, cold.
12th-15th. Another storm moves along Appalachian Mountains: wintry mix. Flooding many coastal localities due to heavy rain.
16th-19th. Light snow/flurries. FOR THE NORTHEAST and MID-ATLANTIC
Quoting 179. bappit:
I agree that the Fukushima disaster is ongoing. It will continue for years. I am disappointed that the Wikipedia article is written in the past tense. They have a separate article giving a timeline of the disaster with the last entry being for August 26, 2013.

People knowledgeable about the general subject should be able to tell what sounds reasonable and what is sensationalism. They would also be able to say what is well-understood about the situation and what is not well understood. I can't tell what is what for the comments posted here. I don't think anyone else on this blog can tell either. Phrases like "open-air super reactor spectacular" do make me leery.


I can agree that some of the terms sound like embellishment. But 300-400 tons of radioactive water leaking every day can't be good. A bigger containment breach can't be good and ignoring it won't make it go away either.

Finally! 42 for the next 2 nights and around 75 for the next 3 days! I'm ready for this.
Quoting 187. JrWeathermanFL:
Finally! 42 for the next 2 nights and around 75 for the next 3 days! I'm ready for this.


Where is that at?
Chiefland Florida
The UK government has recently decided to build another nuclear power plant. The media remain silent regarding Fukushima, of course, they don't want to upset the new deal... so if I had relied on the media in my country, I wouldn't have known about the dangerous removal of spent fuel rods.

In other news, a round of very interesting weather is coming to the UK on Monday, gale to storm force winds with gusts up to 80 mph.

BBC weather forecast
the hurricane 384 hrs out no longer in the new gfs run lol
Hurricane Sandy was beginning a period of rapid intensification...following its first landfall in Jamaica...this time last year. It would later attain major hurricane intensity for a short period of time prior to striking Cuba.

I think October 24 was the most exciting day on the blog.

2012OCT24 231500 5.6 952.8 104.6 5.6 6.4 6.7 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF -46.26 -77.44 EYE -99 IR 74.3 18.51 76.36 COMBO GOES13 21.7

Quoting 156. AldreteMichael:
Just read Dr. Master's post today.

What caught my attention was Lekima's "eye expanded greatly in size while the storm stayed at Category 5 strength". What I found odd about this is that it sounded as if the old eye itself grew, as opposed to a new, larger eye replacing the old smaller eye as the old collapses in on itself, effectively meaning that the eyewall replacement cycle was skipped entirely.

If a tropical system can pull this feat, why don't all do so? What made this possible?

Also, if the eyewall replacement cycle can be skipped, how strong can a tropical system actually become? To my understanding, the EWRC is a major hindrance to a storm's power, because it takes time to complete, and the absolute ideal conditions for strengthening tend to fade away.

This is truly fascinating, and frightening.

Lekima's eye did in fact expand because of an eyewall replacement cycle, albeit on a small and discreet scale.



The Eyewall Replacement Cycle in this instance came and went in a short enough time period that the storm's intensity was not affected much and was able begin strengthening again just as soon as the cycle completed. If you go back and look at IR loops before yesterday's sunrise, you'll even see the inner eyewall dissipate and the outer take over.

This is a bit of an overgeneralization, but the longer a storm has been at a higher intensity, each successive Eyewall Replacement Cycle tends to involve an even larger outer eyewall and take longer to complete.
Quoting 166. GatorWX:
Still looks much better than anything the atl has produced through the last three years.



Ophelia, meh, maybe.


Ophelia pain.
Quoting 190. taistelutipu:
The UK government has recently decided to build another nuclear power plant. The media remain silent regarding Fukushima, of course, they don't want to upset the new deal... so if I had relied on the media in my country, I wouldn't have known about the dangerous removal of spent fuel rods.

In other news, a round of very interesting weather is coming to the UK on Monday, gale to storm force winds with gusts up to 80 mph.

BBC weather forecast

Uk and France are safe places for nuke plants..... Japan and a lot of America is not
Hmm... interesting; setup for a severe weather event?

500mb winds (144 hrs)


Surface Temps (144 hrs)


Surface Dew Points (144 hrs)
Quoting 194. islander44:


Ophelia pain.

I see what you did there... :P
The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season had a total of 66 category 5 hours. The 2013 Western Pacific typhoon season has had 84...with Lekima having the longest time accumulated at 36 total hours (Rita wins at 24 hours in the ATL).



And to think the WPAC is an average season this year....
Quoting 156. AldreteMichael:
Just read Dr. Master's post today.

What caught my attention was Lekima's "eye expanded greatly in size while the storm stayed at Category 5 strength". What I found odd about this is that it sounded as if the old eye itself grew, as opposed to a new, larger eye replacing the old smaller eye as the old collapses in on itself, effectively meaning that the eyewall replacement cycle was skipped entirely.

If a tropical system can pull this feat, why don't all do so? What made this possible?

Also, if the eyewall replacement cycle can be skipped, how strong can a tropical system actually become? To my understanding, the EWRC is a major hindrance to a storm's power, because it takes time to complete, and the absolute ideal conditions for strengthening tend to fade away.

This is truly fascinating, and frightening.


Take a look at my blog.... you can see the discreet eyewall replacement cycle on there...

Link
Quoting 199. yqt1001:
The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season had a total of 66 category 5 hours. The 2013 Western Pacific typhoon season has had 84...with Lekima having the longest time accumulated at 36 total hours (Rita wins at 24 hours in the ATL).



And to think the WPAC is an average season this year....
In name storms I believe is above average right now but in typhoons or major typhoons they are average.
Quoting 174. Dakster:


With TEPCO and Japan keeping everything to themselves, how can anyone vet the information?

All I need to know is a total meltdown and release of all nuclear fuel at the site- all 6 reactors -wouldn't be good.

Hopefully whatever plan they have - works.
Lest us not forget that they have already admitted to releasing a large amount of contaminated water into the sea, which by circular flow will end up everywhere eventually. We already had cor exit oil wash up south of Jacksonville this year. That means it moved from Horizon, all the way around the Keys and crept up the gulf stream. Next stop Coney island, Yay!
Quoting 202. Pallis:
Lest us not forget that they have already admitted to releasing a large amount of contaminated water into the sea, which by circular flow will end up everywhere eventually. We already had cor exit oil wash up south of Jacksonville this year. That means it moved from Horizon, all the way around the Keys and crept up the gulf stream. Next stop Coney island, Yay!


Yes, the Earth is round and the Oceans connect.
Quoting 189. JrWeathermanFL:
Chiefland Florida


Thanks -
Sorry but... Where the heck is Dr Masters getting his 7% humidity reading from? Yesterday there was only 13% and that was at Sydney Airport which is 110km away from the fire grounds. I wish Dr Masters would get his information correct.
Quoting 205. AussieStorm:
Where the heck is Dr Masters getting his 7% humidity reading from? Yesterday there was only 13% and that was at Sydney Airport which is 110km away from the fire grounds. I wish Dr Masters would get his information correct.

Those days of careful deliberation are over.
Link

Numerous strong thunderstorms blowing up in the SW Caribbean, Caribbean, and Yucatan, due to a front interacting with a ULL and pulling moisture up from Central America. I expect outflow boundaries from storms over the SW Caribbean and the Yucatan to produce additional areas of convection over the NW Caribbean. The resulting disturbance over the NW Caribbean will be in a pocket of virtually no shear. That is what I expect to develop into a late season tropical cyclone. This process should take a few days, but MARK MY WORDS, the 2013 Hurricane Season is far from over.


Good Morning!
Quoting 207. GrandCaymanMed:
Link

Numerous strong thunderstorms blowing up in the SW Caribbean, Caribbean, and Yucatan, due to a front interacting with a ULL and pulling moisture up from Central America. I expect outflow boundaries from storms over the SW Caribbean and the Yucatan to produce additional areas of convection over the NW Caribbean. The resulting disturbance over the NW Caribbean will be in a pocket of virtually no shear. That is what I expect to develop into a late season tropical cyclone. This process should take a few days, but MARK MY WORDS, the 2013 Hurricane Season is far from over.


Some of the ensembles are showing a major hurricane in the NW Caribbean the first week of November.
Quoting 209. StormTrackerScott:


Some of the ensembles are showing a major hurricane in the NW Caribbean the first week of November.


I would not be surprised. FL and Cuba should keep a close eye on whatever forms.
Quoting 205. AussieStorm:
Sorry but... Where the heck is Dr Masters getting his 7% humidity reading from? Yesterday there was only 13% and that was at Sydney Airport which is 110km away from the fire grounds. I wish Dr Masters would get his information correct.



from the last blog


Quoting 504. JeffMasters:


METARS at YSSY (which is called Sidney NW in our database) had an RH of 4% on the 23rd:

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/YSSY/ 2013/10/23/DailyHistory.html

This is the station I was quoting.

Jeff Masters
Quoting 210. GrandCaymanMed:


I would not be surprised. FL and Cuba should keep a close eye on whatever forms.


Here's the 12Z GFS


Last year it was Mayan Calendar End of The World...

This year it is Fukushima...

What will it be next year?


Quoting 212. StormTrackerScott:


Here's the 12Z GFS




Wow. Needless to say, I'm going to be watching the tropics very closely.
NW Caribbean is about to get active folks!

Quoting 183. Climate175:
Looks like the Mid-Atlantic may be in for a snowstorm around December 16-19 and Feb 1-3 and Feb 8-11 according to the Farmers Almanac. It also says for a chance of snow in the Mid-Atlantic Area in Mid-November and around Thanksgiving. The Old Farmers Almanac agrees saying the snowiest periods will be in early and mid December and in early to mid Feb. Now people in the Mid-Atlantics feelings may be down for snow but its been at least four years since we got a decent and major snowstorm in this area and i think we could see the major snowstorms in Feb. Now for the cities the urban heat effect is kind of confusing to me a little to me can someone explain how it works and when the temp starts to decline in a city such as Baltimore , Washington DC, Philly , ext. I know the Chesapeake Bay moderates the temps, should i pay attention to the bay temp to know what the temps in the long term might be ? Please reply anyone in the Mid-Atlantic region or anywhere.
The march 6 fail storm of this year is a perfect example of the heat island effect.You see days leading up to the storm weren't cold so the roads and soil was warm and when you combined that with a high sun angle for that time of year your not going to get much accumulation here in the cities,and the temps staying above 32 degrees made it turn into a all rain event.Unless the temperatures are cold prior to a snow event especially that late in the year don't expect a quick pile up of snow...
Quoting 212. StormTrackerScott:


Here's the 12Z GFS



hey scott, check out this crazy EWRC from lekima earlier...

Link
When you this type of upward motion in the Caribbean then watchout. We could have a big one to track soon.

Usually here in FL a dry & hot October is usually followed by a wet November. Well see.
Quoting 217. Torito:


hey scott, check out this crazy EWRC from lekima earlier...

Link


Geesh!
Quoting 218. StormTrackerScott:
When you this type of upward motion in the Caribbean then watchout. We could have a big one to track soon.



The winds have kicked up a bit here today with that outflow boundary from storms in the SW Caribbean. Some people in FL/Cuba may be in for a nasty surprise if some of these ensembles verify...
Quoting 220. StormTrackerScott:


Geesh!


one of the best ones i have seen right there. :) You seen better?
64 lovely degrees here in Orlando!
Quoting 223. StormTrackerScott:
64 lovely degrees here in Orlando!


38.5 here and falling. :P

Link
Raymond up to 50kts.

EP, 17, 2013102500, , BEST, 0, 147N, 1073W, 50, 998, TS
Quoting 222. Torito:


one of the best ones i have seen right there. :) You seen better?


No I haven't. The W-Pac seems to be popping off typhoons that are on steriods lately.
Quoting 223. StormTrackerScott:
64 lovely degrees here in Orlando!


One thing I would watch closely is the return of warmer air to Florida next week. Depending on how strong the high gets that is providing that return flow, and when the next cold front arrives in 8+ days, that will determine where all this mess in the Caribbean is going to go. By that time, we may be dealing with something much stronger.
What does one do with 4 melted reactor cores that have breached their respective containment vessels, and also the Spent Fuel rod assemblies in the spent fuel pools, which are damaged themselves and that have MOX fuel and have to be removed manually with a crane,one by one?

Japanese and US nuclear experts warn that another earthquake hitting Fukushima could spark a disaster worse than Chernobyl.




Radioactive waste water storage

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



from the last blog



Thanks


LOL That's Sydney Airport... Come on Dr Masters, you should know Sydney Airport which is in the suburb of Mascot is only a few km's from the coast.


The red dot is Sydney Airport(Mascot)

Quoting 226. StormTrackerScott:


No I haven't. The W-Pac seems to be popping off typhoons that are on steriods lately.


I'm glad the US has been spared so far... but I don't know how long this peace will last..... 2 weeks, 2 years, who knows.

Quoting 225. Tropicsweatherpr:
Raymond up to 50kts.

EP, 17, 2013102500, , BEST, 0, 147N, 1073W, 50, 998, TS

Hey Luis, can I get the link to the ATCF database for the globe (including WPAC, EPAC, ATL storms, etc.)?
Quoting 228. Patrap:
What does one do with 4 melted reactor cores that have breached their respective containment vessels, and also the Spent Fuel rod assemblies in the spent fuel pools, which are damaged themselves and that have MOX fuel and have to be removed manually with a crane,one by one?

Japanese and US nuclear experts warn that another earthquake hitting Fukushima could spark a disaster worse than Chernobyl.




Radioactive waste water storage



....Bury it in 100 feet of concrete.... :P

For those that dont understand sarcasm... thats what this is.^ This is what the world thinks we should do... not the right thing to do.
Quoting 209. StormTrackerScott:


Some of the ensembles are showing a major hurricane in the NW Caribbean the first week of November.

Highly doubt we get a major. With this being 2013, it just isn't going to happen, especially as conditions get less favorable as we get farther into fall.
Mid-level relative humidity values across the MDR have been on a steady decline for the past several decades. Not quite sure what the cause is...maybe global warming? Higher mid-level temperatures create a drier environment.



Even more apparent looking at global RH values:



Both graphs are off AmericanWx.
Quoting 231. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Hey Luis, can I get the link to the ATCF database for the globe (including WPAC, EPAC, ATL storms, etc.)?


Here you go!

Link
Like I was saying earlier this season, the optimism of some people on this blog will persist until the calendar change forcibly squashes them.
Quoting 229. AussieStorm:

Thanks


LOL That's Sydney Airport... Come on Dr Masters, you should know Sydney Airport which is in the suburb of Mascot is only a few km's from the coast.


The red dot is Sydney Airport(Mascot)



SPECI YSSY 230443Z 27023G33KT CAVOK 33/M07 Q1002 WS RWY25 RMK FU FM0700 24015G25KT CAVOK FM0443 MOD/SEV TURB BLW 5000FT
4:00 PM 91 °F - 22 °F 4% 29.62 in - WNW 21.9 mph - -
Evening all, from cool and breezy Nassau... it was quite windy out at the coast as I drove home this evening, and the clouds from the passing front are still hanging fairly low. We've had rain off and on the whole day, quite heavy in some places. It surely does make a welcome change from the 100-degree heat index wx of earlier this week due to the debilitating humidity we have been experiencing.

I hope this cold spell lasts a while...

I will try to post a photo or two later..
Quoting 236. wxgeek723:
Like I was saying earlier this season, the optimism of some people on this blog will persist until the calendar change forcibly squashes them.


Historically, only about 5% of all Atlantic tropical storm activity occurs after November 1. Between 1871 and 2007, 60 tropical storms formed in November. Of these, 29 became hurricanes, and four of these, major hurricanes. There have also been two major hurricanes that formed in October and continued on into November. On average, one tropical storm forms in November every other year, and we can expect a November hurricane about one year in five.
Quoting 233. wxchaser97:

Highly doubt we get a major. With this being 2013, it just isn't going to happen, especially as conditions get less favorable as we get farther into fall.
Completely agree!
Quoting 236. wxgeek723:
Like I was saying earlier this season, the optimism of some people on this blog will persist until the calendar change forcibly squashes them.


Anything to back that statement up lol? I have repeatedly provided multiple reasons for my forecasts, and I don't expect to always be right. But reasoning is better than generalized statements like that any day.
Quoting 215. StormTrackerScott:
NW Caribbean is about to get active folks!





too late in the season now
Quoting 206. snowballing:

Those days of careful deliberation are over.


All the forecast maps are in fantasy time frame land...I don't buy it -for two reasons. 2013 and the time of the year. But it doesn't hurt to watch just in case.

Second, I am confused by your nick, snowballing. Your avatar is of the desert - so I can only assume you partake in the other activity known as snowballing?

(and before the uneducated mod thinks it is a drug reference, it isn't)
Quoting 205. AussieStorm:
Sorry but... Where the heck is Dr Masters getting his 7% humidity reading from? Yesterday there was only 13% and that was at Sydney Airport which is 110km away from the fire grounds. I wish Dr Masters would get his information correct.
You know, Dr. Masters politely responded to your earlier complaint about this same subject. Perhaps instead of trying again to make him look foolish (and--also again--failing), you could read back? That might be the proper thing do. Just saying...


Here is this evening's cold front.

More interesting for me is the forecast models suggesting this front might be the germ of a storm next week... the dreaded #13???

Quoting 203. Dakster:


Yes, the Earth is round and the Oceans connect.
Sorry if I caught you in a bad mood. The idea that Americans are taxed by an uncaring bureaucracy to protect the seas, which in turn spit in their faces bothers me to no end. I also considered safe to eat wild caught American seafood was one of the things that could never be taken away by those B4$=^rds. Especially in Florida. Wrong I was. Nothing is safe. I have actually taken up Bass/Brim fishing as a safe alternative.
Quoting 243. Tazmanian:




too late in the season now


It's not too late in the season. There are dozens of storms that have formed in November.
Quoting 246. BahaHurican:


Here is this evening's cold front.

More interesting for me is the forecast models suggesting this front might be the germ of a storm next week... the dreaded #13???

It is looking a little bit strange down there. I noticed the blowup/low over Lake Manacaraibo as of last night, is traveling swiftly towards the Yucatan.
Quoting 247. Pallis:
Sorry if I caught you in a bad mood. The idea that Americans are taxed by an uncaring bureaucracy to protect the seas, which in turn spit in their faces bothers me to no end. I also considered safe to eat wild caught American seafood was one of the things that could never be taken away by those B4$=^rds. Especially in Florida. Wrong I was. Nothing is safe. I have actually taken up Bass/Brim fishing as a safe alternative.


I agreed with you then and I agree with you now. Sorry if you took it that I was upset with you.

If you want something safe, nowadays, you gotta grow/raise it yourself. And hope that the land, water, fertilizer, etc... is safe too. After finding out that most of the parks in the City of Miami/Coconut Grove Area were toxic waste dumps before they became parks and are hundreds to thousands of times above the allowable limits for toxins,not so sure where 'safe' is anymore.

I am not paranoid though, just pointing some other atrocities that should have been addressed that were not.
Quoting whitewabit:


SPECI YSSY 230443Z 27023G33KT CAVOK 33/M07 Q1002 WS RWY25 RMK FU FM0700 24015G25KT CAVOK FM0443 MOD/SEV TURB BLW 5000FT
4:00 PM 91 °F - 22 °F 4% 29.62 in - WNW 21.9 mph - -



That is at Sydney Airport. 110 km away from the fires
Quoting 205. AussieStorm:
Sorry but... Where the heck is Dr Masters getting his 7% humidity reading from? Yesterday there was only 13% and that was at Sydney Airport which is 110km away from the fire grounds. I wish Dr Masters would get his information correct.

Quoting 504. JeffMasters:


METARS at YSSY (which is called Sidney NW in our database) had an RH of 4% on the 23rd:

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/YSSY/ 2013/10/23/DailyHistory.html

This is the station I was quoting.

Jeff Masters


At this station I get a min humidity of 12, 22, 18%:
http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/YSDU/ 2013/10/24/CustomHistory.html
Maybe not 7%, but at that point, does it really matter? It's dry enough for fires and then some. Sure, it's like 70 mi from the fires, but it still is indicative of the weather pattern in the area.
Quoting 250. Dakster:


I agreed with you then and I agree with you now. Sorry if you took it that I was upset with you.

If you want something safe, nowadays, you gotta grow/raise it yourself. And hope that the land, water, fertilizer, etc... is safe too. After finding out that most of the parks in the City of Miami/Coconut Grove Area were toxic waste dumps before they became parks and are hundreds to thousands of times above the allowable limits for toxins,not so sure where 'safe' is anymore.

I am not paranoid though, just pointing some other atrocities that should have been addressed that were not.
Just because u r paranoid doesn't mean u r not right...

Seriously, what is with all the typhoons wanting to become partially, or in Lekima's case...fully, annular this year?

Quoting Neapolitan:
You know, Dr. Masters politely responded to your earlier complaint about this same subject. Perhaps instead of trying again to make him look foolish (and--also again--failing), you could read back? That might be the proper thing do. Just saying...


Sorry but Dr. Masters is wrong, I am just pointing that out. Is that wrong too???





See what I mean by wrong????

I guess if the blog and website owner is wrong, then we should all go along with it and not say anything.

I'm OUT!!!!

Quoting 255. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Seriously, what is with all the typhoons wanting to become partially, or in Lekima's case...fully, annular this year?

They are all so jealous about how good Hurricane Isabel looked 10 years ago in the Atlantic so 10 years later they are trying to score a 10/10 in the beauty contest to be as good as Isabel was.
Quoting ScottLincoln:



At this station I get a min humidity of 12, 22, 18%:
http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/YSDU/ 2013/10/24/CustomHistory.html
Maybe not 7%, but at that point, does it really matter? It's dry enough for fires and then some. Sure, it's like 70 mi from the fires, but it still is indicative of the weather pattern in the area.


That is Dubbo Airport, 270km from the fire.

So the weather pattern at sea level is the same at almost 4000ft? And the Blue Mountains(where the fires are) has an area of 4400sq miles.

As I said... I'm OUT!!!

I'll be back when I feel like it.
261. SLU
Fool's gold.

Aussie --Calm down. Might be better to take this to WuMail with Doctor Masters.

You've made your point and I all for being accurate, but I don't think you will get anywhere further on the public blog. (just my.02)
Quoting 260. AussieStorm:


That is Dubbo Airport, 270km from the fire.

So the weather pattern at sea level is the same at almost 4000ft? And the Blue Mountains(where the fires are) has an area of 4400sq miles.

As I said... I'm OUT!!!

I'll be back when I feel like it.
are there even any stations close to the fires
Quoting Dakster:
Aussie --Calm down. Might be better to take this to WuMail with Doctor Masters.

You've made your point and I all for being accurate, but I don't think you will get anywhere further on the public blog. (just my.02)

As I said, people don't care about accuracy especially from Dr Masters. Cause it's his blog and website so he can do and say whatever the heck he wants.

I'm OUT!!!

Bye
Quoting 262. Dakster:
Aussie --Calm down. Might be better to take this to WuMail with Doctor Masters.

You've made your point and I all for being accurate, but I don't think you will get anywhere further on the public blog. (just my.02)
Wuz thinkin the same thing... U might do better to use wumail so doc can see it. On the comment section it might get overlooked.
Quoting 255. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Seriously, what is with all the typhoons wanting to become partially, or in Lekima's case...fully, annular this year?

Actually, annulars are more common in the WPac.

It appears that Lekima has completed its EWRC. Would like to see the end result when the eye clears up.


Francisco still snuggling. Looks a bit extratropical now.

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 PM PDT THU OCT 24 2013

RAYMOND HAS MADE A COMEBACK TONIGHT. A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP
CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR THE CENTER...AND THE OVERALL CLOUD
PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 50 KNOTS...BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE
T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND OBJECTIVE NUMBERS FROM THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN. THE GLOBAL MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF...HAVE DONE A REMARKABLY GOOD JOB IN FORECASTING THE
CHANGE FROM UNFAVORABLE TO FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. NOW THAT
THIS FAVORABLE PATTERN HAS MATERIALIZED...AS SEEN BY A WESTWARD
EXPANSION OF THE OUTFLOW...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR RAYMOND TO
REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH AGAIN IN A DAY OR SO OVER OPEN WATERS.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND WITH THE UPWARD
INTENSITY TREND SHOWN BY GUIDANCE TONIGHT. THE HWRF APPEARS TO BE
ALONE IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE...KEEPING RAYMOND ON A GRADUAL STEADY
DECAY OR WITH NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WHEN THE SHEAR INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER WATERS...WEAKENING
SHOULD THEN BEGIN.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF RAYMOND HAS CONTINUED TO
EXPAND AND IS FORCING THE CYCLONE TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 265
DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THIS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE
DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO...AND THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL KEEP
RAYMOND ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK AWAY FROM MEXICO. BY DAY 4
AND BEYOND...THE SAME APPROACHING TROUGH WHICH WILL INDUCE THE
SHEAR WILL ALSO ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
THEN SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE WESTWARD MOTION TROUGH DAY 3 OR
SO...BUT AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRACK BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN WITH
SOME MODELS KEEPING THE CYCLONE MEANDERING...AND OTHERS MOVING IT
NORTHWARD A LITTLE FASTER. THE FIRST SOLUTION IS THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO TO OCCUR SINCE BY THAT TIME...RAYMOND SHOULD BE WEAKER AND
STEERED BY A MUCH LIGHTER LOW-LEVEL FLOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 14.6N 107.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 14.5N 109.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 14.0N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 13.7N 113.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 13.5N 116.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 14.0N 119.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 15.5N 120.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 17.0N 120.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Australia has just had its hottest September on record, and the 12-month period ending in August 2013 set a record for the hottest 12-month period in Australian history.

Quoting 264. AussieStorm:

As I said, people don't care about accuracy especially from Dr Masters. Cause it's his blog and website so he can do and say whatever the heck he wants.

I'm OUT!!!

Bye

its not that big of a deal
Does any one have water temps and ocean heat content for the WPac?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
are there even any stations close to the fires


Mt Boyce which is just outside of Blackheath

BOM Mt Boyce

Weatherzone Mt Boyce obs for 23/10
Winter Storm Boreas in the making???

(I know some of you guys don't like the TWC names but idc :p I find it a little easier to identify the storms sorta. If you respectfully disagree thats fine but I will use them throughout the season)

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
312 PM MDT THU OCT 24 2013

MTZ008>015-044>055-251200-
/O.NEW.KTFX.WS.A.0008.131027T1800Z-131029T1200Z/
BEAVERHEAD-NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN GLACIER-HILL-
CASCADE-CHOUTEAU-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK-MADISON-
TOOLE-LIBERTY-EASTERN PONDERA-BLAINE-
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT-EASTERN TETON-JUDITH BASIN-FERGUS-
JEFFERSON-BROADWATER-MEAGHER-GALLATIN-
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...BIG HOLE PASS...
CHIEF JOSEPH PASS...DILLON...MONIDA PASS...BROWNING...
MARIAS PASS...LOGAN PASS...CUT BANK...HAVRE...GREAT FALLS...
KINGS HILL PASS...BIG SANDY...FORT BENTON...FLESHER PASS...
HELENA...LINCOLN...MACDONALD PASS...ROGERS PASS...ENNIS...
NORRIS HILL...RAYNOLDS PASS...TWIN BRIDGES...SHELBY...CHESTER...
CONRAD...CHINOOK...CHOTEAU...FAIRFIELD...STANFORD ...LEWISTOWN...
LEWISTOWN DIVIDE...BOULDER...BOULDER HILL...ELK PARK PASS...
HOMESTAKE PASS...WHITEHALL...TOWNSEND...WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS...
BATTLE RIDGE PASS...BOZEMAN...BOZEMAN PASS...TARGHEE PASS...
WEST YELLOWSTONE
312 PM MDT THU OCT 24 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREAT FALLS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

* TIMING AND MAIN IMPACTS: HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST
MONTANA SUNDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION. SNOW
WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AND BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: OVER 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR
THE PLAINS AND VALLEYS. 10 TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.

* WINDS AND VISIBILITY: VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO ONE HALF MILE AT
TIMES IN HEAVY SNOW. A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY RESULTING IN AREAS OF BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT WHERE WINDS GUSTING OVER 40 MPH COULD RESULT IN
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

* OTHER IMPACTS: THE WEATHER LEADING UP TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY MILD. THOSE TRAVELING OR RECREATING OUTSIDE NEED
TO BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
HUNTERS HEADING INTO THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS WEEKEND SHOULD HAVE
A PLAN TO SAFELY EXIT MOUNTAIN AND REMOTE AREAS AS THE WEATHER
WORSENS.

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE: FAIRFIELD...CHOTEAU...CHESTER...
WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS...BATTLE RIDGE PASS...BOZEMAN... BOZEMAN
PASS...TARGHEE PASS...WEST YELLOWSTONE...STANFORD...
LEWISTOWN...LEWISTOWN DIVIDE...BOULDER...BOULDER HILL...ELK PARK
PASS...HOMESTAKE PASS...WHITEHALL...SHELBY...CHINOOK... BIG
SANDY...FORT BENTON...BROWNING...MARIAS PASS...LOGAN
PASS...CONRAD...HAVRE...CUT BANK...TOWNSEND...GREAT FALLS...
KINGS HILL PASS...BIG HOLE PASS...CHIEF JOSEPH PASS...
DILLON...MONIDA PASS...FLESHER PASS...HELENA...LINCOLN...
MACDONALD PASS...ROGERS PASS...ENNIS...NORRIS HILL... RAYNOLDS
PASS...TWIN BRIDGES.


* TO SEE A GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION OF THE DEGREE OF STRESS ON
YOUNG LIVESTOCK PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/TFX/CANL/CANL.PHP?WFO=TFX:


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

There was frost all over the car this morning. Already down to the lower 40s here.

Gotta get used to this.
Having a truck is better. So is having a garage :)
I hope this accident at NC State Fair *DOESN'T* turn into a tragedy... 5 people are fighting for their lives with massive brain injuries after falling from a ride when they get upside down. Few of my friends witnessed it :(

edit: So sorry for leaving out "doesn't"! I'm not a cold person.
Arctic temperatures at 44,000-year high

Plenty of studies have shown that the Arctic is warming and that the ice caps are melting, but how does it compare to the past, and how serious is it?

New research shows that average summer temperatures in the Canadian Arctic over the last century are the highest in the last 44,000 years, and perhaps the highest in 120,000 years.

"The key piece here is just how unprecedented the warming of Arctic Canada is," Gifford Miller, a researcher at the University of Colorado, Boulder, said in a joint statement from the school and the publisher of the journal Geophysical Research Letters, in which the study by Miller and his colleagues was published online this week. "This study really says the warming we are seeing is outside any kind of known natural variability, and it has to be due to increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere."
Quoting 242. GrandCaymanMed:


Anything to back that statement up lol? I have repeatedly provided multiple reasons for my forecasts, and I don't expect to always be right. But reasoning is better than generalized statements like that any day.


Lol what is it with the science community that you guys just don't take well to mild sarcasm?
Quoting 276. Bluestorm5:
I hope this accident at NC State Fair turn into a tragedy... 5 people are fighting for their lives with massive brain injuries after falling from a ride when they get upside down. Few of my friends witnessed it :(

you could have worded that much better....you mean that u hope it gets attention
Quoting 280. nwobilderburg:

you could have worded that much better....you mean that u hope it gets attention


Holy crap, I didn't mean to leave out "doesn't"! I'm sorry guys!
Quoting 270. MoltenIce:
Does any one have water temps and ocean heat content for the WPac?





36 outside with slushy raindrops
Quoting 274. TropicalAnalystwx13:
There was frost all over the car this morning. Already down to the lower 40s here.

Gotta get used to this.
You better get used to it man. Next stop is black ice. :O
Quoting 270. MoltenIce:
Does any one have water temps and ocean heat content for the WPac?




Quoting 285. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


36 outside with slushy raindrops
I know where that is at. It's in Scarborough. Haven't been to Canada in 3 years. I used to go like every year. Sure miss my relatives up there.
Quoting 283. wxgeek723:


Wow. You can get your license at 12 in North Carolina?

;)


LOL
Quoting 288. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I know where that is at. It's in Scarborough. Haven't been to Canada in 3 years. I used to go like every year. Sure miss my relatives up there.
us locals like to refer too it as scarbriera
Quoting 283. wxgeek723:


Wow. You can get your license at 12 in North Carolina?

;)

Quoting 291. TropicalAnalystwx13:



Except they are.
Cape-Verde Season not done yet?



RAWWRRR! :) SAL outbreak back in August.

Freeze warnings for me, hydrus, and JNTenne tonight:
Quoting 255. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Seriously, what is with all the typhoons wanting to become partially, or in Lekima's case...fully, annular this year?


Fully annular is a bit of a stretch. Yes, it is the closest we have gotten all year, but we're not there yet. If Lekima can finish out the Eyewall Replacement Cycle before conditions get too hostile, we are probably there.

Annular Hurricanes
Quoting 254. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Probably nothing. The radars have not been re tuned for the fall air yet, so they are picking up the least amount of atmospheric moisture to be precipitation, and just because most of the actual tropical moisture from northern South America is gravitating towards the Yucatan tip does not mean we should check what kinds of batteries our flashlights actually take. Just so happens that I was going to several home depots right now to stock up for next season. Do you know how many 3 inch tapcons make a ton? I don't want to overload my springs.
Quoting 289. KoritheMan:


LOL
So weird that in the states you can get your license at one age and in another state at other age.Is so confusing.
If I lived in the W coast of N America I would be very concerned about children... Mix Fukushima's contamination with the Nevada Nuke cementery and get worried....

Fukushima update - North American food supply poisoned along Pacific Coast

Sunday, July 14, 2013 by: Carolanne Wright

(NaturalNews) If you live on the West Coast of the U.S. or Canada, you may want to reconsider your water filtration method as well as how you select and prepare food. Evidently, the nightmare of Fukushima is far from over - another 16 million years to be exact. Due to the astonishingly long half-life of iodine-129, the whole ecosystem of the Pacific Coast will be contaminated pretty much forever.

Lifespan of radioactive isotopes and other trivia
Among other dangerous radioactive isotopes released from the Fukushima meltdown, iodine-129 also spewed forth from the damaged reactor. Incredibly, this isotope has a half-life of 16 million years. Essentially, the entire West Coast food supply of North America will be contaminated with radiation for unlimited generations. We have fundamentally entered into a new way of life - one that takes a giant leap toward illness, disease and heightened mortality rates.

Consider the water supply. Not only does it provide drinking water for humans and animals, but it also irrigates crops. When the supply is contaminated, it influences everything. According to a public health statement made by the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR):

"Iodine in the oceans enters the air from sea spray or as iodine gases. Once in the air, iodine can combine with water or with particles in the air and can enter the soil and surface water, or land on vegetation when these particles fall to the ground or when it rains. Iodine can remain in soil for a long time because it combines with organic material in the soil. It can also be taken up by plants that grow in the soil. Cows or other animals that eat these plants will take up the iodine in the plants. Iodine that enters surface water can reenter the air as iodine gases."

The question is, does radioactive iodine spread in the same manner as its natural counterpart? Unfortunately, the answer is an unequivocal "yes." The agency continues:

"Radioactive iodine also forms naturally from chemical reactions high in the atmosphere. Most radioactive forms of iodine change very quickly (seconds to days) to stable elements that are not radioactive. However, one form, 129I, changes very slowly (millions of years), and its levels build up in the environment."

Before packing up and relocating to Antarctica, a few options are available that can drastically reduce exposure to these harmful elements.

Protect and detoxify
Here are several precautions that can help shield individuals from a radioactive food supply:

- View all fish and crustaceans from the Pacific Ocean as tainted.

- Always use filtered water for cooking and drinking.

- Pay attention to the origin of dairy.

- Wash any produce thoroughly with natural soap and rinse with purified water.

- Avoid meat from contaminated regions (including wild game).

Another level of defense is explained in the article, Remove radiation from your produce with Calcium Bentonite Clay:

"You can add Calcium Bentonite Clay to your milk and drinking water if you're concerned about the possibility of contamination there as well. Add approximately 1 ounce of liquid Calcium Bentonite Clay to a gallon of organic raw milk or water. Some people prefer to let the clay settle to the bottom of the liquid and discard that portion, while others prefer to shake it up and drink them together. Either is fine."

All in all, it truly is a sad state of affairs when the idea of donning a hazmat suit simply to handle our food is not as outrageous as it once had been.

Learn more: http://www.naturalnews.com/041200_Fukushima_radiat ion_poisoning_contaminated_food.html#ixzz2ihgB1Tfe




Just like Chernobyl

Radioactive iodine that enters the human body typically gathers in the thyroid, which releases growth hormones. Radiation exposure can, therefore, stunt the growth of a child’s body and brain. Exposure can have lifelong effects, as scientists studying the Chernobyl nuclear power plant meltdown in 19896 have found.

Decades after the accident, a 2011 study by the National Institutes of Health found that higher absorption of I-131 radiation led to an increased risk for thyroid cancer among victims of Chernobyl radiation – a risk that has not diminished over time.

The children who were unfortunate enough to be exposed to Fukushima radiation on the US West Coast, as well as in Alaska and Hawaii could now face similar risks.

Link


Fallout link to thyroid cancer gets boost
If cancer victim lived in '50s, Nevada tests could be to blame


Almost anyone diagnosed with thyroid cancer who was a child in the United States during open-air nuclear testing at the Nevada Test Site, and drank fresh milk from stores or farms, could make a case that development of the disease likely was influenced by radioactive fallout.

That's the belief of F. Owen Hoffman, one of the authors of a new report summarizing impacts of fallout on thyroid cancer. The report is "Thyroid Doses and Risk of Thyroid Cancer from Exposure to I-131 from the Nevada Test Site," prepared by SENES Oak Ridge Inc., consultants based in Oak Ridge, Tenn.

Link

Study: Thyroid Disorder Increased 20% Among Newborns in U.S. West Coast States after Arrival of Fallout from Fukushima
Author: Radiation and Public Health Project
Published on Apr 3, 2013 - 7:02:26 AM

March 29, 2013 - Newborns with under-active thyroid glands in the five Pacific/West Coast states rose 28% in the four months after fallout from the Fukushima meltdown arrived in the U.S., according to a new article in the Open Journal of Pediatrics.

Link

US National Cancer Institute I-131 Thyroid Dose Calculator for Nevada Test Site Fallout

For readers in the US who were born before 1971, there is an online calculator available from the National Cancer Institute to assess your radioactive iodine (I-131) exposure (thyroid dose equivalent) from nuclear tests in Nevada:

Link

Click to enlarge.



P2=Pewa (Central Pacific)
U=Unala (Central Pacific)
Quoting 299. allancalderini:
So weird that in the states you can get your license at one age and in another state at other age.Is so confusing.


They've also made it now to where education is required in Louisiana. Found that out recently. Apparently you need at least a high school diploma or GED to be eligible for a driver's license, I think if you're under the age of 20, but I might be mistaken there.
Quoting 300. sunlinepr:
If I lived in the W coast of N America I would be very concerned about children... Mix Fukushima's contamination with the Nevada Nuke cementery and get worried....

Fukushima update - North American food supply poisoned along Pacific Coast

Sunday, July 14, 2013 by: Carolanne Wright

(NaturalNews) If you live on the West Coast of the U.S. or Canada, you may want to reconsider your water filtration method as well as how you select and prepare food. Evidently, the nightmare of Fukushima is far from over - another 16 million years to be exact. Due to the astonishingly long half-life of iodine-129, the whole ecosystem of the Pacific Coast will be contaminated pretty much forever.

Lifespan of radioactive isotopes and other trivia
Among other dangerous radioactive isotopes released from the Fukushima meltdown, iodine-129 also spewed forth from the damaged reactor. Incredibly, this isotope has a half-life of 16 million years. Essentially, the entire West Coast food supply of North America will be contaminated with radiation for unlimited generations. We have fundamentally entered into a new way of life - one that takes a giant leap toward illness, disease and heightened mortality rates.

Consider the water supply. Not only does it provide drinking water for humans and animals, but it also irrigates crops. When the supply is contaminated, it influences everything. According to a public health statement made by the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR):

"Iodine in the oceans enters the air from sea spray or as iodine gases. Once in the air, iodine can combine with water or with particles in the air and can enter the soil and surface water, or land on vegetation when these particles fall to the ground or when it rains. Iodine can remain in soil for a long time because it combines with organic material in the soil. It can also be taken up by plants that grow in the soil. Cows or other animals that eat these plants will take up the iodine in the plants. Iodine that enters surface water can reenter the air as iodine gases."

The question is, does radioactive iodine spread in the same manner as its natural counterpart? Unfortunately, the answer is an unequivocal "yes." The agency continues:

"Radioactive iodine also forms naturally from chemical reactions high in the atmosphere. Most radioactive forms of iodine change very quickly (seconds to days) to stable elements that are not radioactive. However, one form, 129I, changes very slowly (millions of years), and its levels build up in the environment."

Before packing up and relocating to Antarctica, a few options are available that can drastically reduce exposure to these harmful elements.

Protect and detoxify
Here are several precautions that can help shield individuals from a radioactive food supply:

- View all fish and crustaceans from the Pacific Ocean as tainted.

- Always use filtered water for cooking and drinking.

- Pay attention to the origin of dairy.

- Wash any produce thoroughly with natural soap and rinse with purified water.

- Avoid meat from contaminated regions (including wild game).

Another level of defense is explained in the article, Remove radiation from your produce with Calcium Bentonite Clay:

"You can add Calcium Bentonite Clay to your milk and drinking water if you're concerned about the possibility of contamination there as well. Add approximately 1 ounce of liquid Calcium Bentonite Clay to a gallon of organic raw milk or water. Some people prefer to let the clay settle to the bottom of the liquid and discard that portion, while others prefer to shake it up and drink them together. Either is fine."

All in all, it truly is a sad state of affairs when the idea of donning a hazmat suit simply to handle our food is not as outrageous as it once had been.

Learn more: http://www.naturalnews.com/041200_Fukushima_radiat ion_poisoning_contaminated_food.html#ixzz2ihgB1Tfe




Just like Chernobyl

Radioactive iodine that enters the human body typically gathers in the thyroid, which releases growth hormones. Radiation exposure can, therefore, stunt the growth of a child’s body and brain. Exposure can have lifelong effects, as scientists studying the Chernobyl nuclear power plant meltdown in 19896 have found.

Decades after the accident, a 2011 study by the National Institutes of Health found that higher absorption of I-131 radiation led to an increased risk for thyroid cancer among victims of Chernobyl radiation – a risk that has not diminished over time.

The children who were unfortunate enough to be exposed to Fukushima radiation on the US West Coast, as well as in Alaska and Hawaii could now face similar risks.

Link


Fallout link to thyroid cancer gets boost
If cancer victim lived in '50s, Nevada tests could be to blame


Almost anyone diagnosed with thyroid cancer who was a child in the United States during open-air nuclear testing at the Nevada Test Site, and drank fresh milk from stores or farms, could make a case that development of the disease likely was influenced by radioactive fallout.

That's the belief of F. Owen Hoffman, one of the authors of a new report summarizing impacts of fallout on thyroid cancer. The report is "Thyroid Doses and Risk of Thyroid Cancer from Exposure to I-131 from the Nevada Test Site," prepared by SENES Oak Ridge Inc., consultants based in Oak Ridge, Tenn.

Link

Study: Thyroid Disorder Increased 20% Among Newborns in U.S. West Coast States after Arrival of Fallout from Fukushima
Author: Radiation and Public Health Project
Published on Apr 3, 2013 - 7:02:26 AM

March 29, 2013 - Newborns with under-active thyroid glands in the five Pacific/West Coast states rose 28% in the four months after fallout from the Fukushima meltdown arrived in the U.S., according to a new article in the Open Journal of Pediatrics.

Link

US National Cancer Institute I-131 Thyroid Dose Calculator for Nevada Test Site Fallout

For readers in the US who were born before 1971, there is an online calculator available from the National Cancer Institute to assess your radioactive iodine (I-131) exposure (thyroid dose equivalent) from nuclear tests in Nevada:

Link


Well, now im freaked out about it
Quoting 305. nwobilderburg:

Well, now im freaked out about it


All of that was obvious already, I would think.
Quoting 303. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Click to enlarge.



P2=Pewa (Central Pacific)
U=Unala (Central Pacific)
How about WPac ACE values?
It was a good year for leafing. Also took Wooly Worm pics & put together a WNC Woolly Worm Winter Forecast in my blog.



Quoting 305. nwobilderburg:

Well, now im freaked out about it


We all could freak about it.... Take preventive action, that's all.... We have to Get informed specially if we have children... and then we have to filter the data resources looking for trustable info.... something difficult these days due to the avalanche of information and disinformation, conspiracy theories...

LIVE video tonight of the snow falling in Boone, North Carolina.

Link

Just sprinkles here in the foothills tho. Rain/Snow line is lost somewhere in the western foothills.

Quoting 310. Walshy:
LIVE video tonight of the snow in Boone, North Carolina.



Just sprinkles here in the foothills tho. Rain/Snow line is lost somewhere in the western foothills.


I bailed the other night when the woolly worms started climbing the trees & tent.

Snow is really coming down on that web cam.
Quoting 309. sunlinepr:


We all could freak about it.... Take preventive action, that's all.... We have to Get informed specially if we have children... and then we have to filter the data resources looking for trustable info.... something difficult these days due to the avalanche of information and disinformation, conspiracy theories...



Not mentioned on that can do list..It's important that everyone, especially kids gets 100% of their daily Iodine..
Quoting 305. nwobilderburg:



One thing is for sure, if I lived in the W coast, I would spend some money on a good Geiger counter and would test food and water before shopping.. Also I would consider moving if I found detectable radiation in my area... So that means that I would have to travel and take readings to compare...




All these systems coming into N America are and would be the leftovers of Wipha, Francisco, Lekima etc.. or whaever system that went over Japan... over Fukushima were there are used rods exposed to the air... Traces of radioactive materials come along.... and will keep on coming until corrective action is taken....


Quoting 312. Skyepony:


Not mentioned on that can do list..It's important that everyone, especially kids gets 100% of their daily Iodine..


True... very important...

Too bad that nuclear venom affects the little ones that are in formation...
Quoting 304. KoritheMan:


They've also made it now to where education is required in Louisiana. Found that out recently. Apparently you need at least a high school diploma or GED to be eligible for a driver's license, I think if you're under the age of 20, but I might be mistaken there.
By the first summer kids get pregnant or knocked someone up, with no car, with that plan. The Church is always there to console you as they steal your child. Thank God I started driving when I was 13, otherwise I would never have gotten the concept of going to work and would have had kids with 4 child mommies by 16. Heck I didn't even bother to get a license till I was 25 because I was always on the jobsite. What is the opposite of prevention? Could one of you post a low site in the AM? Good night. I sleepy late .
Quoting 312. Skyepony:


Not mentioned on that can do list..It's important that everyone, especially kids gets 100% of their daily Iodine..
But never feed your children iodized salt.
Quoting 306. KoritheMan:


All of that was obvious already, I would think.

well... im nervous about the spent fuel removal... i live on the west coast.. so it make me nervous
Many good stories about the Pacific being a changed ocean now too with huge amounts of junk and waste everywhere like never before. Some who have traveled there throughout their careers have horrifying stories of no fish to be caught anymore, no birds circling, and having to be very careful of running the outboard motor because the Pacific is that congested now with so much stuff. The shear amount of refuse that got ejected into the Pacific after the tsunami is hard to fathom. A good research if your interested. Here's to hoping another large quake doesn't happen anywhere near Fukushima anytime soon.
Quoting 306. KoritheMan:


All of that was obvious already, I would think.


What I have found is that all these accidents and their effects have been minimized by the powerful interests behind the nuclear industry... The Nevada fallout, Chernobyl, Bikini Atoll, Fukushima and many other accidents in current operating plants, the truth behind has been minimized or hidden...
Its a fact that The Russian gov. has burried behind lies, the real effects and number of deaths after Chernobyl... the same situation repeats in the other...

Take for example the Nevada Fallout effects..

A 1979 study reported in the New England Journal of Medicine concluded that:

A significant excess of leukemia deaths occurred in children up to 14 years of age living in Utah between 1959 and 1967. This excess was concentrated in the cohort of children born between 1951 and 1958, and was most pronounced in those residing in counties receiving high fallout.[14]

In a report by the National Cancer Institute, released in 1997, it was determined that ninety atmospheric tests at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) deposited high levels of radioactive iodine-131 (5.5 exabecquerels) across a large portion of the contiguous United States, especially in the years 1952, 1953, 1955, and 1957 doses large enough,

they determined, to produce 10,000 to 75,000 cases of thyroid cancer.

The Radiation Exposure Compensation Act of 1990 allowed for people living downwind of NTS for at least two years in particular Nevada, Arizona or Utah counties, between 21 January 1951 and 31 October 1958, or 30 June and 31 July 1962, and suffering from certain cancers or other serious illnesses deemed to have been caused by fallout exposure to receive compensation of $50,000.

By January 2006, over 10,500 claims had been approved, and around 3,000 denied, for a total amount of over $525 million in compensation dispensed to "downwinders"
.[16] Additionally, the Energy Employees Occupational Illness Compensation Program Act of 2000 provides compensation and medical benefits for nuclear weapons workers who may have developed certain work-related illnesses.[17]



The same story like GMO seeds from Monsanto... the round-up coctel that many of us consume every day...
Quoting 316. Pallis:
But never feed your children iodized salt.


Why? Iodized salt has been a major medical breakthrough for the world, reducing mental retardation by a significant percentage.
Quoting 320. KoritheMan:
Blog update on Raymond if anyone's interested.


If anyone's still up, you mean.
Quoting 321. Astrometeor:


Why? Iodized salt has been a major medical breakthrough for the world, reducing mental retardation by a significant percentage.




Don't Eat Table Salt For Radiation Protection! It Can Kill You!

People are still talking about taking iodized table salt as an effective anti-radiation antidote, but the World Health Organization specifically warned everyone outside of Japan against self-medicating at this time with any iodine-containing substance as protection from radiation exposure. As I was saying yesterday, people would need dozens of tablespoons of salt each day to reach the proper and proven dose of potassium iodide. And you absolutely can die from ingesting such large amounts of salt.
Quoting 322. Astrometeor:


If anyone's still up, you mean.


That's not going to be the case starting next week. I requested Monday through Wednesday off each week and my manager approved it. No more blogging to the dead. :)
Quoting 323. sunlinepr:




Don't Eat Table Salt For Radiation Protection! It Can Kill You!

People are still talking about taking iodized table salt as an effective anti-radiation antidote, but the World Health Organization specifically warned everyone outside of Japan against self-medicating at this time with any iodine-containing substance as protection from radiation exposure. As I was saying yesterday, people would need dozens of tablespoons of salt each day to reach the proper and proven dose of potassium iodide. And you absolutely can die from ingesting such large amounts of salt.


Well...if you eat/drink anything to excess, it will kill you. Including pure water.

But there's no denying the benefits it has given to humans with regards to maintaining a healthy level of iodine in your thyroid.

Moderation is key, as always.
Quoting 275. DonnieBwkGA:
Having a truck is better. So is having a garage :)


I have both, but the truck won't fit in the garage... Garage is too low and too short.
Quoting 324. KoritheMan:


That's not going to be the case starting next week. I requested Monday through Wednesday off each week and my manager approved it. No more blogging to the dead. :)


Oh, that's excellent news for you Kori!

Good night everyone. Got to get my 5 hours of sleep out of the 8 that is recommended, woot!

Quoting 325. Astrometeor:


Well...if you eat/drink anything to excess, it will kill you. Including pure water.

I've actually heard that water toxicity is only applicable in instances where it is consumed in excess without proper urination. Which, I'm not sure who would be masochistic enough to do that...

Night, Nathan.
329. flsky
I think I heard somewhere that filming in those test sites contributed to John Wayne's and another actress' (I can't think of her name at the moment) cancer deaths.

Quoting 319. sunlinepr:


What I have found is that all these accidents and their effects have been minimized by the powerful interests behind the nuclear industry... The Nevada fallout, Chernobyl, Bikini Atoll, Fukushima and many other accidents in current operating plants, the truth behind has been minimized or hidden...
Its a fact that The Russian gov. has burried behind lies, the real effects and number of deaths after Chernobyl... the same situation repeats in the other...

Take for example the Nevada Fallout effects..

A 1979 study reported in the New England Journal of Medicine concluded that:

A significant excess of leukemia deaths occurred in children up to 14 years of age living in Utah between 1959 and 1967. This excess was concentrated in the cohort of children born between 1951 and 1958, and was most pronounced in those residing in counties receiving high fallout.[14]

In a report by the National Cancer Institute, released in 1997, it was determined that ninety atmospheric tests at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) deposited high levels of radioactive iodine-131 (5.5 exabecquerels) across a large portion of the contiguous United States, especially in the years 1952, 1953, 1955, and 1957 doses large enough,

they determined, to produce 10,000 to 75,000 cases of thyroid cancer.

The Radiation Exposure Compensation Act of 1990 allowed for people living downwind of NTS for at least two years in particular Nevada, Arizona or Utah counties, between 21 January 1951 and 31 October 1958, or 30 June and 31 July 1962, and suffering from certain cancers or other serious illnesses deemed to have been caused by fallout exposure to receive compensation of $50,000.

By January 2006, over 10,500 claims had been approved, and around 3,000 denied, for a total amount of over $525 million in compensation dispensed to "downwinders"
.[16] Additionally, the Energy Employees Occupational Illness Compensation Program Act of 2000 provides compensation and medical benefits for nuclear weapons workers who may have developed certain work-related illnesses.[17]



The same story like GMO seeds from Monsanto... the round-up coctel that many of us consume every day...
Quoting 328. KoritheMan:

I've actually heard that water toxicity is only applicable in instances where it is consumed in excess without proper urination. Which, I'm not sure who would be masochistic enough to do that...

Night, Nathan.
I only drink a glass of water when I am going to sleep the rest of the day is coke or pepsi or even fanta.
Snow tonight in Boone, NC. I bet the higher elevations/ski resorts have 1-2". West Virginia checking in with 2-8".

-triadwx from Americanwx

Quoting 330. allancalderini:
I only drink a glass of water when I am going to sleep the rest of the day is coke or pepsi or even fanta.
I used to do that... until I realized how unhealthy it is.

Not to knock your preferences there, though. <3
Quoting 328. KoritheMan:

I've actually heard that water toxicity is only applicable in instances where it is consumed in excess without proper urination. Which, I'm not sure who would be masochistic enough to do that...

Night, Nathan.


Not neccessarily true. If you are extremely dehydrated and drink only water you could die. This has happened to long distance runners in the past, which is why they now drink water with electrolytes added. Also, if you are dehydrated and drink a bunch of water it will cause you to vomit, further dehydrating you...

But, this is a weather forum... So -- what do the new runs say about an early November storm?

Quoting 334. Dakster:


 Also, if you are dehydrated and drink a bunch of water it will cause you to vomit, further dehydrating you...

Could explain why I've felt that way more than once when doing that.
...Who reported my avatar as copyright infringement? This place is beginning to bore me.

I'll put one of Hurricane Mitch up so the babies will stop crying. But if I find out that image was not in the copyright domain, I will contest it in a New York minute.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 AM PDT FRI OCT 25 2013

...RAYMOND A LITTLE WEAKER BUT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 108.5W
ABOUT 435 MI...695 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 AM PDT FRI OCT 25 2013

THE INTENSITY OF RAYMOND IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN TONIGHT. WHILE
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION...A PAIR OF ASCAT PASSES BETWEEN
04Z AND 05Z INDICATE THAT RAYMOND IS WEAKER THAN WOULD BE SUGGESTED
BY A BLEND OF THE LATEST SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS. THE HIGHER OF
THE TWO ASCAT PASSES SHOWED ONLY A FEW 35-40 KT WIND BARBS EAST OF
THE CENTER...AND BASED ON THESE DATA THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 45 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY. DESPITE THE WEAKER INITIAL INTENSITY...
CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT
2 TO 3 DAYS...AS RAYMOND WILL BE MOVING OVER SUFFICIENTLY WARM
WATERS IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY...
BUT STILL SHOWS RAYMOND REACHING HURRICANE STATUS IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS. BY DAYS 4 AND 5 RAYMOND WILL MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND
SHEAR WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHWARD OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING.
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE IVCN
INTENSITY CONSENSUS AID.

THE CENTER OF RAYMOND HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN GEOSTATIONARY
IMAGERY. HOWEVER...MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT
PASSES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED A LITTLE SOUTH OF
PREVIOUS ESTIMATES WITH A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION
OF 260/09. THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO HAS NOT CHANGED IN THE SHORT
TERM...AND THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
RAYMOND WILL MOVE WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. DURING THIS TIME...THE NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE TVCE CONSENSUS...BUT A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST DUE TO THE
ADJUSTMENT IN INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. LATER IN THE PERIOD THE
TRACK FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES...WITH LARGE RUN-TO-RUN
VARIABILITY SEEN IN THE MODELS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
ABOVE-MENTIONED MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
ECMWF AND GFS MOVE THIS TROUGH EASTWARD MORE QUICKLY AND RECURVE
RAYMOND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH BY DAY 5. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY
IN THE GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND THE EXPECTATION THAT RAYMOND
WILL BE A SHALLOWER SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...I HAVE
ADJUSTED THE TRACK ONLY A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. THE NHC
TRACK AT THESE TIMES IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS AND IS CLOSE
TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 14.2N 108.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 13.9N 110.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 13.5N 112.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 13.4N 114.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 13.4N 116.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 14.5N 119.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 16.5N 119.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 18.0N 119.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Good Morning Folks!.............
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 55 degrees and the humidity is down to 75%.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Andouille sausage and shrimp scramble, Eggs Benedict with asparagus and a creamy low fat shrimp sauce, egg burritos with cheese and chorizo, steak, eggs and hash browns, spinach, lean ham and cheese egg white omelet, Warm grapefruit and orange with toasted coconut, Scrambled Egg Pockets, Belgian waffles with strawberries or powdered sugar, sausage links, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
UKMET Office


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 14.3N 71.4W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 30.10.2013 14.3N 71.4W WEAK

00UTC 31.10.2013 14.3N 74.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

0.0

He guys hmm looks like Lorenzo maybe be making comeback
Hmm that seems to be the trend this season storms develop then weaken then die then redevelop again
So far it's been
Dorian
Gabrielle
Humberto
And maybe Lorenzo
Quoting 336. KoritheMan:
...Who reported my avatar as copyright infringement? This place is beginning to bore me.

I'll put one of Hurricane Mitch up so the babies will stop crying. But if I find out that image was not in the copyright domain, I will contest it in a New York minute.

A similar thing happened to me in March. I had a University of Michigan block M as my avatar since Michigan was looking really good in the tournament. Then 5-7 days after I had it up, it was taken down for copyright infringement. All I did is put up another block M afterward, lol.
Quoting 342. nrtiwlnvragn:
UKMET Office


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 14.3N 71.4W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 30.10.2013 14.3N 71.4W WEAK

00UTC 31.10.2013 14.3N 74.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


Wow even the UKMET is jumping on board with the carib storm development
Quoting 328. KoritheMan:

I've actually heard that water toxicity is only applicable in instances where it is consumed in excess without proper urination. Which, I'm not sure who would be masochistic enough to do that...

Night, Nathan.
I love water, but not that much.
Quoting 331. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:






The little jet max in there is where some severe weather could be...Especially if we get some neg tilt..Good morning Keep..
brr 60f and freezing e cen fl.
Quoting 351. islander101010:
brr 60f and freezing e cen fl.
25 frostydegrees here on the plateau and me grass is bright white..Mornin Largo..:)
The GFS has the next system beind much larger than the first.
Frost advisory in effect from 4 am to 9 am EDT Saturday...

The National Weather Service in New York has issued a frost
advisory... which is in effect from 4 am to 9 am EDT Saturday.

* Locations... southern Fairfield... southern New Haven... southern
Middlesex... southern New London... eastern Passaic... western
Bergen... western Essex... western Union... Rockland and northern
Westchester counties.

* Hazards... areas of frost.

* Temperatures... in the mid 30s.

* Timing... late tonight into early Saturday morning.

* Impacts... sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left
uncovered or unprotected.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A frost advisory means that frost is possible. Sensitive outdoor
plants may be killed if left uncovered.

Frost advisory in effect from 4 am to 9 am EDT Saturday...

The National Weather Service in New York has issued a frost
advisory... which is in effect from 4 am to 9 am EDT Saturday.

* Locations... southern Fairfield... southern New Haven... southern
Middlesex... southern New London... eastern Passaic... western
Bergen... western Essex... western Union... Rockland and northern
Westchester counties.

* Hazards... areas of frost.

* Temperatures... in the mid 30s.

* Timing... late tonight into early Saturday morning.

* Impacts... sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left
uncovered or unprotected.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A frost advisory means that frost is possible. Sensitive outdoor
plants may be killed if left uncovered.

Arctic temperatures at 44,000-year high Douglas Main LiveScience - 12 hours ago artic temps Gifford Miller As ice caps like this one, nicknamed Sputnik, melt, they expose tiny plants that have been frozen there for millennia, giving clues to the past climate. Plenty of studies have shown that the Arctic is warming and that the ice caps are melting, but how does it compare to the past, and how serious is it? New research shows that average summer temperatures in the Canadian Arctic over the last century are the highest in the last 44,000 years, and perhaps the highest in 120,000 years. "The key piece here is just how unprecedented the warming of Arctic Canada is," Gifford Miller, a researcher at the University of Colorado, Boulder, said in a joint statement from the school and the publisher of the journal Geophysical Research Letters, in which the study by Miller and his colleagues was published online this week. "This study really says the warming we are seeing is outside any kind of known natural variability, and it has to be due to increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere." The study is the first to show that current Arctic warmth exceeds peak heat there in the early Holocene, the name for the current geological period, which began about 11,700 years ago. During this "peak" Arctic warmth, solar radiation was about 9 percent greater than today, according to the study. Miller and his colleagues gauged Arctic temperatures by looking at gas bubbles trapped in ice cores (cylinders drilled from the ice that show layers of snow laid down over time) taken from the region, which allows scientists to reconstruct past temperature and levels of precipitation. They paired this with radiocarbon dating of clumps of moss taken from a melting ice cap on Canada's Baffin Island. Their analysis shows that these plants have been trapped in the ice for at least 44,000 years, and perhaps as long as 120,000 years. Taken together, that data suggest temperatures in the region haven't been this high since perhaps as long as 120,000 years ago, according to the study. The Arctic has been heating up for about a century, but the most significant warming didn't start until the 1970s, Miller said in the statement. "And it is really in the past 20 years that the warming signal from that region has been just stunning," he added. "All of Baffin Island is melting, and we expect all of the ice caps to eventually disappear, even if there is no additional warming.

As ice caps like this one, nicknamed Sputnik, melt, they expose tiny plants that have been frozen there for millennia, giving clues to the past climate.
Quoting 356. hydrus:
Arctic temperatures at 44,000-year high Douglas Main LiveScience - 12 hours ago artic temps Gifford Miller As ice caps like this one, nicknamed Sputnik, melt, they expose tiny plants that have been frozen there for millennia, giving clues to the past climate. Plenty of studies have shown that the Arctic is warming and that the ice caps are melting, but how does it compare to the past, and how serious is it? New research shows that average summer temperatures in the Canadian Arctic over the last century are the highest in the last 44,000 years, and perhaps the highest in 120,000 years. "The key piece here is just how unprecedented the warming of Arctic Canada is," Gifford Miller, a researcher at the University of Colorado, Boulder, said in a joint statement from the school and the publisher of the journal Geophysical Research Letters, in which the study by Miller and his colleagues was published online this week. "This study really says the warming we are seeing is outside any kind of known natural variability, and it has to be due to increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere." The study is the first to show that current Arctic warmth exceeds peak heat there in the early Holocene, the name for the current geological period, which began about 11,700 years ago. During this "peak" Arctic warmth, solar radiation was about 9 percent greater than today, according to the study. Miller and his colleagues gauged Arctic temperatures by looking at gas bubbles trapped in ice cores (cylinders drilled from the ice that show layers of snow laid down over time) taken from the region, which allows scientists to reconstruct past temperature and levels of precipitation. They paired this with radiocarbon dating of clumps of moss taken from a melting ice cap on Canada's Baffin Island. Their analysis shows that these plants have been trapped in the ice for at least 44,000 years, and perhaps as long as 120,000 years. Taken together, that data suggest temperatures in the region haven't been this high since perhaps as long as 120,000 years ago, according to the study. The Arctic has been heating up for about a century, but the most significant warming didn't start until the 1970s, Miller said in the statement. "And it is really in the past 20 years that the warming signal from that region has been just stunning," he added. "All of Baffin Island is melting, and we expect all of the ice caps to eventually disappear, even if there is no additional warming.

As ice caps like this one, nicknamed Sputnik, melt, they expose tiny plants that have been frozen there for millennia, giving clues to the past climate.
morning hydrus
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 8:00 AM EDT Friday 25 October 2013
Condition:Partly Cloudy
Pressure:30.2 inches
Tendency:rising
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:35.8°F
Dewpoint:32.5°F
Humidity:88%
Wind:WNW 7 mph
Quoting 356. hydrus:
Arctic temperatures at 44,000-year high Douglas Main LiveScience - 12 hours ago artic temps Gifford Miller As ice caps like this one, nicknamed Sputnik, melt, they expose tiny plants that have been frozen there for millennia, giving clues to the past climate. Plenty of studies have shown that the Arctic is warming and that the ice caps are melting, but how does it compare to the past, and how serious is it? New research shows that average summer temperatures in the Canadian Arctic over the last century are the highest in the last 44,000 years, and perhaps the highest in 120,000 years. "The key piece here is just how unprecedented the warming of Arctic Canada is," Gifford Miller, a researcher at the University of Colorado, Boulder, said in a joint statement from the school and the publisher of the journal Geophysical Research Letters, in which the study by Miller and his colleagues was published online this week. "This study really says the warming we are seeing is outside any kind of known natural variability, and it has to be due to increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere." The study is the first to show that current Arctic warmth exceeds peak heat there in the early Holocene, the name for the current geological period, which began about 11,700 years ago. During this "peak" Arctic warmth, solar radiation was about 9 percent greater than today, according to the study. Miller and his colleagues gauged Arctic temperatures by looking at gas bubbles trapped in ice cores (cylinders drilled from the ice that show layers of snow laid down over time) taken from the region, which allows scientists to reconstruct past temperature and levels of precipitation. They paired this with radiocarbon dating of clumps of moss taken from a melting ice cap on Canada's Baffin Island. Their analysis shows that these plants have been trapped in the ice for at least 44,000 years, and perhaps as long as 120,000 years. Taken together, that data suggest temperatures in the region haven't been this high since perhaps as long as 120,000 years ago, according to the study. The Arctic has been heating up for about a century, but the most significant warming didn't start until the 1970s, Miller said in the statement. "And it is really in the past 20 years that the warming signal from that region has been just stunning," he added. "All of Baffin Island is melting, and we expect all of the ice caps to eventually disappear, even if there is no additional warming.

As ice caps like this one, nicknamed Sputnik, melt, they expose tiny plants that have been frozen there for millennia, giving clues to the past climate.
Radiocarbon 44,000 years? Pshht. Dismissed as fraud right there.
Conditons at the South Pole
Weather Blowing snow
Mist
Temperature -50 F (-46 C)
Windchill -83 F (-64 C)

No ice melting there.

Need to find the conditions at the north pole.
361. RWT
Quoting 359. Pallis:
Radiocarbon 44,000 years? Pshht. Dismissed as fraud right there.

Read something similar this morning that said that Arctic is well on it's way to being the coldest in 40 years. The ice should recover by 2025.

I think you must take these two extremes and throw them out.
Expect raymond to undergo a bit of strengthening through the next 48 hours.... It may have a decent shot of returning to hurricane status.

GOES has some techincal difficulties right now, but you can see that 95S continues to strengthen.....

Expect it to make a run at TC status.

Francisco will likely dissipate within the next 24 hours.... It is currently being absorbed by a front.

Lekima has weakened a bit overnight. It is likely a strong cat 2 right now, and is starting to weaken a little bit faster now.


It was 38 degrees this morning where I was.Brr,but at least it's a sign winter will be here in about two months.I however expect this winter to suck bad eggs.
Quoting 367. washingtonian115:
It was 38 degrees this morning where I was.Brr,but at least it's a sign winter will be here in about two months.I however expect this winter to suck bad eggs.


It dropped to 25 here in MD last night. Right now, it is 36 degrees outside.

Link
Quoting 359. Pallis:
Radiocarbon 44,000 years? Pshht. Dismissed as fraud right there.
Fraud.? How so.?
Quoting 361. RWT:

Read something similar this morning that said that Arctic is well on it's way to being the coldest in 40 years. The ice should recover by 2025.

I think you must take these two extremes and throw them out.
Shame on me for bringin up the GW topic..The Earth is going to turn into a fireball rivaling the Suns heat energy...:)
Pocamocca What in the hell!. - !
Quoting 374. washingtonian115:
Pocamocca What in the hell!. - !
that was so disgusting. why was he talking about his sack. OMG. this blog is funny sometimes.
Quoting 368. Torito:


It dropped to 25 here in MD last night. Right now, it is 36 degrees outside.

Link
What part of MD are you from?.Are you in the elevations?
Quoting 372. Torito:
Scientists Find Gold in Tree Leaves!!!


EUREKA!
Good Morning All.  Outside of the cooler temps in many parts of the Northern US, looks like beautiful football weather this weekend for the College Football games.

Fall is here in earnest but a very dry one so far with little in the form of fronts with considerable precipitation whether rain for the South or snow in the North.  Nothing brewing yet, precipitation-wise,  in the short-term out of the NW where many of the Conus Winter fronts and big lows originate:



 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/wv-l.jpg
Quoting 376. washingtonian115:
What part of MD are you from?.Are you in the elevations?


Carroll county, its not mountains, but it is much higher than the bay area which is swampy during rainy parts of the year.
Quoting 377. MoltenIce:
EUREKA!


Im going to start growing those trees now.... Time for me to make bank. ;)
Quoting 378. weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning All.  Outside of the cooler temps in many parts of the Northern US, looks like beautiful football weather this weekend for the College Football games.

Fall is here in earnest but a very dry one so far with little in the form of fronts with considerable precipitation whether rain for the South or snow in the North.  Nothing brewing yet, precipitation-wise,  in the short-term out of the NW where many of the Conus Winter fronts and big lows originate:



 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/wv-l.jpg
Expect a bit of rain and winds when Lekima and Francisco become extratropical.

I think...
Quoting 379. Torito:


Carroll county, its not mountains, but it is much higher than the bay area which is swampy during rainy parts of the year.
Okay.Yeah I drove past that area and it's not exactly flat.It does have "slight" elevation.
This is carroll county. :P

what was francisco.....dissipating now.

Quoting 382. washingtonian115:
Okay.Yeah I drove past that area and it's not exactly flat.It does have "slight" elevation.


You are in maryland too, right?
Quoting 369. hydrus:
Fraud.? How so.?
For C-14 dating the conditions are:

1)The material to be dated must be organic
2)The organism to be tested must have gotten its C-14 from the atmosphere
3)The sample has remained chemically and physically a closed system since its
emplacement.
4) That we know what the atmospheric concentration of C-14 was when the
organism lived.
5) Must not have had contact with any form of radioactivity.
6) Must be earlier than 20,000 years to even be considered for semi accurate dating by this young science.
As we can see to equate a C-14 year with a calendar year depends on the uniformity of C-14 in the atmosphere for many thousands of years into the past. Measurements were done on organic sedimentary layers worldwide showing that radiocarbon ages do not increase at a steady rate as one goes down layer by layer but, instead, they increase at an accelerated rate. That means that the concentration of C-14 decreased rapidly with depth. This shows that the atmospheric concentration of C-14 was not stable in the past and such dating methods may not be as reliable as we first thought.
At least they got 1 and 2 right, huh?
Quoting 385. Torito:


You are in maryland too, right?
D.C.
IMAGE OF THE DAY WITH ARTICLE:



At a cosmologically crisp one degree Kelvin (minus 458 degrees Fahrenheit) ,the Boomerang Nebula is the coldest known object in the Universe -- colder, in fact, than the faint afterglow of the Big Bang, which is the natural background temperature of space.

The Boomerang Nebula, called the "Coldest place in the Universe", reveals its true shape with ALMA. The background blue structure, as seen in visible light with the Hubble Space Telescope, shows a classic double-lobe shape with a very narrow central region. ALMA's resolution and ability to see the cold molecular gas reveals the nebula's more elongated shape, as seen in red.

Full article here....



Link

Quoting 381. MoltenIce:
Expect a bit of rain and winds when Lekima and Francisco become extratropical.

I think...
Never thought of that since I don't follow West Pacific systems as closely.....Do they typically transition and move poleward across the Northern Pacific towards the NW Conus and/or Canada and Alaska?
Quoting 389. weathermanwannabe:

Never thought of that since I don't follow West Pacific systems as closely.....Do they typically transition and move poleward across the Northern Pacific towards the NW Conus and/or Canada and Alaska?
Depends on the track of the storms. Northbound storms tend to transition and will tend to affect Alaska and occasionally the Northwest CONUS.

I believe Ioke (CPAC turn WPAC system) caused a bit of damage in Alaska back in 2006.

Edit: Oops, northwest. Silly me.
Quoting 386. Pallis:
For C-14 dating the conditions are:

1)The material to be dated must be organic
2)The organism to be tested must have gotten its C-14 from the atmosphere
3)The sample has remained chemically and physically a closed system since its
emplacement.
4) That we know what the atmospheric concentration of C-14 was when the
organism lived.
5) Must not have had contact with any form of radioactivity.
6) Must be earlier than 20,000 years to even be considered for semi accurate dating by this young science.

At least they got 1 and 2 right, huh?
were all goona die..
despite the record cold down into Georgia and southern Alabama, we are continuing to warm as a whole as a globe. Rapidly. We are rapidly warming at the poles, and Antarctica, and everywhere. don't be fooled be the recent record cold right now and all the freeze warmings. When you pump trillions of tons of CO2 in the atmosphere in a year there will be consequences.

some sea fog on the pond in my backyard. steam rising and the water are quiet...no fish jumping up for bugs. bugs have died. 27 degrees will kill them.

Quoting 390. MoltenIce:
Depends on the track of the storms. Northbound storms tend to transition and will tend to affect Alaska and occasionally the Northeast CONUS.

I believe Ioke (CPAC turn WPAC system) caused a bit of damage in Alaska back in 2006.
Thanks; if memory serves me correct, I think that Levi (near Anchorage) was blogging about that event back in 2006.
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT FRI OCT 25 2013

VALID 281200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE/MULTI-DAY SEVERE RISK WILL BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY FOR
AT LEAST PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS ESPECIALLY AROUND DAYS 5-6
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AND PERHAPS INTO DAY 7/THURSDAY. WHILE AT LEAST
CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISKS SEEM POSSIBLE ON ONE OR MORE
DAYS...CONSIDERABLE GUIDANCE VARIABILITY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SOUTHWEST STATES UPPER TROUGH PRECLUDES ANY SPECIFIC DELINEATION
OF 30 PERCENT EQUIVALENT SEVERE RISK AREAS. IN GENERAL...THE 00Z
ECMWF FEATURES A MUCH SLOWER SOLUTION AS COMPARED TO THE FASTER/MORE
POSITIVE-TILT 00Z GFS/UKMET GUIDANCE.

THAT SAID...CURRENT SPECULATIONS ARE THAT SOME SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUCH AS WEST/NORTHWEST TX
INTO WESTERN OK ON DAY 5/TUESDAY...WITH STRONGER TSTMS POTENTIALLY
ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF AZ/NM. A MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE RISK COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO DAY
6/WEDNESDAY...WITH ALL SEVERE FACETS POTENTIALLY POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OK/TX AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF KS/ARKLATEX.



After that it hopefully comes to the Southeast
Quoting 394. GeorgiaStormz:
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT FRI OCT 25 2013

VALID 281200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE/MULTI-DAY SEVERE RISK WILL BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY FOR
AT LEAST PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS ESPECIALLY AROUND DAYS 5-6
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AND PERHAPS INTO DAY 7/THURSDAY. WHILE AT LEAST
CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISKS SEEM POSSIBLE ON ONE OR MORE
DAYS...CONSIDERABLE GUIDANCE VARIABILITY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SOUTHWEST STATES UPPER TROUGH PRECLUDES ANY SPECIFIC DELINEATION
OF 30 PERCENT EQUIVALENT SEVERE RISK AREAS. IN GENERAL...THE 00Z
ECMWF FEATURES A MUCH SLOWER SOLUTION AS COMPARED TO THE FASTER/MORE
POSITIVE-TILT 00Z GFS/UKMET GUIDANCE.

THAT SAID...CURRENT SPECULATIONS ARE THAT SOME SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUCH AS WEST/NORTHWEST TX
INTO WESTERN OK ON DAY 5/TUESDAY...WITH STRONGER TSTMS POTENTIALLY
ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF AZ/NM. A MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE RISK COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO DAY
6/WEDNESDAY...WITH ALL SEVERE FACETS POTENTIALLY POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OK/TX AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF KS/ARKLATEX.



After that it hopefully comes to the Southeast

You want destruction?
Quoting 389. weathermanwannabe:

Never thought of that since I don't follow West Pacific systems as closely.....Do they typically transition and move poleward across the Northern Pacific towards the NW Conus and/or Canada and Alaska?


this general direction.

Quoting 396. Torito:


this general direction.

I think there had been a few systems that had affected the NW CONUS years back.

Quoting 396. Torito:


this general direction.

Interesting how these transitioning tropical systems often get caught up in trade winds, and related ocean currents, whether moving from Africa to the Caribbean, or like in this example moving from Asia towards the NW; almost riding the same same ocean currents that brought debris from the Fukashima reactor tsunami towards the Pacific NW Coast of Canada/US.
Quoting 397. MoltenIce:
I think there had been a few systems that had affected the NW CONUS years back.


Yea, but it has become a bit less frequent..... That's a mystery that I would like to know the reason behind.
Looks mostly like a heavy rain event for the SE possibly.

The trough axis is now further north on both the GFS and ECMWF and the surface low is over the ohio valley and near the great lakes rather than over the cumberland plateau area.

Although shear profiles remain good over the SE on the GFS, with such a distanced surface low and little CAPE, I'm not optimistic about a severe weather threat, nor am I confident that the models will trend south again now that the event is at 144-168hrs.

Time will tell however, and other areas are in the threat zone.
Quoting 395. EPAsupporter56:

You want destruction?


no.
Quoting 361. RWT:

Read something similar this morning that said that Arctic is well on it's way to being the coldest in 40 years. The ice should recover by 2025.

I think you must take these two extremes and throw them out.
Can you please provide a link to where you read that? Thanks in advance...
One of the underlying causes of much of the severe weather associated with Conus frontal systems is the current location of the jet stream relative to the low location and mid-level sheer profiles.  This is a good chart (link below) to keep an eye on for an indication of where tornados and or strong straight-line winds might be an issue:



 
Quoting 391. hydrus:
were all goona die..


I disagree. In memory or Gro.
Those accusing Neapolitan of using multiple handles in Ricky Rood's blog has really got a lot of nerve.

Link
Lorenzo may have regenerated into a TD...

Quoting 407. Torito:
Lorenzo may have regenerated into a TD...



don't beg!!!!!!!
Raymond looks a bit better than earlier.

the t-wave is getting huge now.

invest 95S:



No closed circulation yet, but its working on it.


Quoting 408. NaplesWebDesigner56:

No? Why am I under the impression you are not being honest with me?




Name Change?

I don't know why you are under that impression.
I am not you, and so I am unable to answer that question.
Quoting 402. Neapolitan:
Can you please provide a link to where you read that? Thanks in advance...


We could be waiting awhile seeing no credible scientific study suggests either.
Quoting 412. Torito:
invest 95S:



No closed circulation yet, but its working on it.



For an invest, that's quite the convective burst. Pretty impressive.
This might get interesting! Lekima and Francisco could merge eventually, look at the crossing tracks!

Good morning all. It is a bright and warm 5778K on the surface of the sun this morning.

Breakfast is in the fridge. Cold left over thin crust Pizza Hut pepperoni and sausage pizza with ranch dressing and a two-liter bottle of coke zero. Enjoy!
Quoting 415. mickharp:

For an invest, that's quite the convective burst. Pretty impressive.


As you can see, it has TD force winds now (Green), however I don't think the storms in the Indian ocean are declared TD.. I think they skip right to TC status when it hits 40MPH.
Quoting 413. GeorgiaStormz:




Name Change?

I don't know why you are under that impression.
I am not you, and so I am unable to answer that question.

Then let me simplify that for you:

You said you want severe weather in your area. You seemed very excited at the possibility of this taking place. Why would you want roofs torn off people's homes when it's getting cold out? Why would you wish for folks to be without power in 20 degree nights this time of year in the mountains?
Quoting 413. GeorgiaStormz:




Name Change?

I don't know why you are under that impression.
I am not you, and so I am unable to answer that question.


Just and ignore that guy, no use fighting with him........
Quoting 386. Pallis:
For C-14 dating the conditions are:

1)The material to be dated must be organic
2)The organism to be tested must have gotten its C-14 from the atmosphere
3)The sample has remained chemically and physically a closed system since its
emplacement.
4) That we know what the atmospheric concentration of C-14 was when the
organism lived.
5) Must not have had contact with any form of radioactivity.
6) Must be earlier than 20,000 years to even be considered for semi accurate dating by this young science.
As we can see to equate a C-14 year with a calendar year depends on the uniformity of C-14 in the atmosphere for many thousands of years into the past. Measurements were done on organic sedimentary layers worldwide showing that radiocarbon ages do not increase at a steady rate as one goes down layer by layer but, instead, they increase at an accelerated rate. That means that the concentration of C-14 decreased rapidly with depth. This shows that the atmospheric concentration of C-14 was not stable in the past and such dating methods may not be as reliable as we first thought.
At least they got 1 and 2 right, huh?
The study looked at gas bubbles trapped in ice cores, and paired those with carbon dating of clumps of moss trapped in the ice for at least 44 millennia, and as long as 120,000 years. Now, I'm not sure where you got your 20,000 year limit for accuracy in carbon dating, though based on the wording, I suspect it's from one of those "scientists are wrong about everything" Young Earth/Intelligent Design websites. At any rate, it's incorrect; carbon-14 dating is actually limited to about 50,000 years by counting techniques alone, and that can be extended to around 100,000 years by using additional accelerator techniques.
Quoting 419. NaplesWebDesigner56:

Then let me simplify that for you:

You said you want severe weather in your area. You seemed very excited at the possibility of this taking place. Why would you want roofs torn off people's homes when it's getting cold out? Why would you wish for folks to be without power in 20 degree nights this time of year in the mountains?


I already said no I don't want that.

Though I enjoy severe weather, I do not wish for any damage to occur, but regardless, I have no control over the weather anyway.

When people clamor for a beautiful recurving major hurricane, does that mean they mean harm to all ships that may be sailing in the open sea or that they want to cause disruptions in shipping lanes?
Quoting 305. nwobilderburg:

Well, now im freaked out about it


There's no reason to freak out. That article is pretty much fact free fear mongering.

We are constantly bombarded by nuclear radiation every day. Everything from your smoke detector to bananas to salt substitute to the dirt in your backyard to the occasional cosmic ray (and even more if you happen to live next to a coal plant). Every life form on earth has evolved coping mechanisms to handle radiation exposure (some more than others), even humans. We wouldn't be here if it didn't.

In order for exposure to radiation to be a threat, you need three things: the rate of radioactivity, the type of radiation, and the rate of bio-accumulation in the body.

For example, take a look at Iodine-131. It has a half-life of 8 days, a biological half-life of 80-100 days (if you aren't getting enough iodine), and is a beta emitter. The short half-life means it is extremely radioactive. The relatively short biological half-life means accumulation is harder, and the beta radiation means that the isotope would need to get inside the body before any damage could take place.

Taken altogether, Iodine-131 is only a short term threat, mainly to those without proper nutrition. After a few weeks it's almost all decayed, and if you have proper nutrition, any that gets in your system will be flushed out quickly. Since it is a beta emitter there isn't a danger from direct external exposure.

Now take a look at iodine-129. It has the same properties as iodine-131, except that it's half-life is about 16 million years and can also emit low energy gamma radiation. It is several orders of magnitude less radioactive than iodine-131, so requires a much much higher accumulation to achieve the same damage potential. Since iodine has a relatively short biological half-life, someone would need persistent high exposure over a long period of time before it increased the risks of something like cancer. However, unlike iodine-131, iodine-129 is an external threat as well since it emits gamma radiation so you wouldn't want to go wallowing in a vat of it.

Now compare these with a really dangerous isotope like strontium-90. Strontium-90 is arguably one of the most dangerous by-products of nuclear activity. It has a half-life of 28 years (highly radioactive), is a beta emitter, and has a biological half-life on average of 18 years (it can bind to bone in place of calcium). You don't want to be exposed to Strontium-90, even at low levels due to the way it can bio-accumulate. Fortunately it is usually produced in much lower quantities than other by-products.

It takes a lot of radiation to increase cancer risks by even 1%, let alone make you sick or kill you. Radiation exposure does not mean you'll get cancer and die. Radiation exposure does not mean you'll grow a third arm out of your head. Radiation exposure is not some magical demon that has the power to kill everyone and everything on earth. Humans, and life in general, are not that fragile.

Whenever you see a story like this, research it. The science is much more informative and a hell of a lot less FUD.


gfs seems to be hinting on something trying to develop at 150 hrs near the leewards aint no joe b but thats what is looks to me
Good morning...Vigorous tropical wave riding very low, may be able to develop if it can shed some of that meat as it nears the Lesser Antilles in a few days.

Quoting 425. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Good morning...Vigorous tropical wave riding very low, may be able to develop if it can shed some of that meat as it nears the Lesser Antilles in a few days.



it needs a yellow crayon, 10%.
Chilly here in GA

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST WITH TEMPS
POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK IN ATL THE EARLIEST SINCE
1968


It's been so warm the trees and grass are still mostly green. Leaves are beginning to fall slowly though.
Quoting 426. Torito:


it needs a yellow crayon, 10%.


Quoting 422. GeorgiaStormz:


I already said no I don't want that.

Though I enjoy severe weather, I do not wish for any damage to occur, but regardless, I have no control over the weather anyway.

When people clamor for a beautiful recurving major hurricane, does that mean they mean harm to all ships that may be sailing in the open sea or that they want to cause disruptions in shipping lanes?
Don't bother with him. He is obviously trying to pick a fight. Getting real tired of the morality police on this blog.
most of the south might get Frost tonight..........
Cat 4 Raymond?

Freeze Watch

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
211 AM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013

...COLD TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR SATURDAY MORNING...

NCZ087-096-099-105-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-252000-
/O.NEW.KILM.FZ.A.0005.131026T0600Z-131026T1300Z/
ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-INLAND PENDER-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-
FLORENCE-MARION-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LUMBERTON...ELIZABETHTOWN...
WHITEVILLE...BURGAW...BENNETTSVILLE...DARLINGTON. ..DILLON...
FLORENCE...MARION
211 AM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* TIMING...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPERIENCED JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE ON SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE
VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE. COLD
SENSITIVE PLANTS SHOULD BE PROTECTED OR MOVED INDOORS.


&&

$$

Latest forecast map for Lekima from the JMA.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 01-20132014
16:30 PM RET October 25 2013
=============================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 1 (1004 hPa) located at 9.2S 69.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/D 0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=============================
12 HRS: 10.1S 67.6E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 11.1S 66.0E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 12.8S 62.6E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 13.5S 59.4E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
============================
The system is located at about 200 NM in the southwest of Diego Garcia. It is moving west southwestward at 8 knots. The cloud organization has improved again for the last night, but convection remains fluctuating. The trade inflow supplies the low, but the low level convergence is weak equatorward. Upper level conditions are rather good under the northwestern edge of high pressures.

Within the next 36-48 hours, available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement to forecast a west southwestward track towards a weakness in the subtropical high pressures belt. On this track, the upper level environment will be good with weak wind-shear and good divergence poleward. However, the lower layers environment should remain rather unfavorable with a decreasing convergence equatorward and cooler sea surface temperatures (26-27C). Nether the less the low should deepen during this two day window.

From Sunday evening, upper level conditions should deteriorate with a strengthening northward to northwestward wind shear. Then the low is expected to fill up on a westward track.

Intensity of this system does not justify issuance of regular warnings
This thing actually has a broad circulation....




IMAGE OF THE DAY:



At a cosmologically crisp one degree Kelvin (minus 458 degrees Fahrenheit) ,the Boomerang Nebula is the coldest known object in the Universe -- colder, in fact, than the faint afterglow of the Big Bang, which is the natural background temperature of space.

The Boomerang Nebula, called the "Coldest place in the Universe", reveals its true shape with ALMA. The background blue structure, as seen in visible light with the Hubble Space Telescope, shows a classic double-lobe shape with a very narrow central region. ALMA's resolution and ability to see the cold molecular gas reveals the nebula's more elongated shape, as seen in red.

Full article here....



Link
Quoting 438. HadesGodWyvern:
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 01-20132014
16:30 PM RET October 25 2013
=============================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 1 (1004 hPa) located at 9.2S 69.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/D 0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=============================
12 HRS: 10.1S 67.6E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 11.1S 66.0E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 12.8S 62.6E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 13.5S 59.4E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
============================
The system is located at about 200 NM in the southwest of Diego Garcia. It is moving west southwestward at 8 knots. The cloud organization has improved again for the last night, but convection remains fluctuating. The trade inflow supplies the low, but the low level convergence is weak equatorward. Upper level conditions are rather good under the northwestern edge of high pressures.

Within the next 36-48 hours, available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement to forecast a west southwestward track towards a weakness in the subtropical high pressures belt. On this track, the upper level environment will be good with weak wind-shear and good divergence poleward. However, the lower layers environment should remain rather unfavorable with a decreasing convergence equatorward and cooler sea surface temperatures (26-27C). Nether the less the low should deepen during this two day window.

From Sunday evening, upper level conditions should deteriorate with a strengthening northward to northwestward wind shear. Then the low is expected to fill up on a westward track.

Intensity of this system does not justify issuance of regular warnings


Is it this guy?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 405. Tribucanes:


I disagree. In memory or Gro.
I kid, i kid..:)..I know the Earth is warming..Some day they will determine how much of it mankind is responsible for. If the Earths temperature rose 50 degrees, there would still be someone out there saying that it is a sign of an impending Ice Age, and its a natural cycle unaffected by man....some folks are simply addicted to arguing regardless of the evidence that proves there wrong..:)
Quoting 372. Torito:
Scientists Find Gold in Tree Leaves!!!




So money does grow on trees.
Last call to read my blog on somewhat historical cold outbreak as well as first snowfall of season for surrounding area:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Bluestorm5/show. html