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Super Typhoon Francisco Becomes Earth's 3rd Category 5 Storm of 2013

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:02 PM GMT on October 19, 2013

Mighty Super Typhoon Francisco has intensified to become Earth's third Category 5 storm of 2013. The other two Cat 5s were Cyclone Phailin, which hit India earlier this month at Category 3 or 4 strength, killing 44 and causing at least $1 billion in damage, and Super Typhoon Usagi, which hit China just east of Hong Kong as a Category 2 storm on September 22, killing 50 and causing at least $3.8 billion in damage. Satellite loops show a spectacular, well-organized storm with an impressive area of heavy thunderstorms and a prominent eye. With warm waters that extend to great depth and low wind shear, Francisco is likely to stay at Category 5 strength until an eyewall replacement cycle begins. Francisco is headed northwest towards Japan, and will likely stay at Category 4 or stronger intensity until Tuesday, when the storm will encounter higher wind shear and cooler waters. By the time Franciso makes its closest approach to Japan on Thursday, weakening to Category 2 or lesser strength is likely. In their Saturday morning runs, both the European model and GFS model predicted that Francisco would turn northeastwards on Wednesday, and hit Japan on Thursday. There is very high uncertainty in the storm's track that far into the future, though, since the timing of Francisco's turn the northeast is difficult to predict.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Francisco, taken at approximately 03 UTC on October 19, 2013. At the time, Francisco was a Category 5 storm with top winds of 160 mph. Image credit: NASA.

The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days.

Intriguing Tipping Points TV Series Begins Airing Saturday at 9pm EDT
How does one tell the most important story of our time--the emergence of our great Climate Disruption--without boring one's audience to tears, but at the same time, not resorting to over-hyped spinning of the science? “Tipping Points”, a landmark 6-part TV series that begins airing at 9 pm EDT Saturday, October 19 on The Weather Channel, aims to do just that. "Tipping Points" follows a group of preeminent scientists as they venture off the grid to explore the perilous tipping points making our weather systems more extreme and unpredictable. The first episode at 9 pm EDT/8 pm CDT this Saturday will be "Amazon Rainforest Risks". "Tipping Points" host Bernice Notenboom will join Peter Cox, Professor of Climate System Dynamics at the University of Exeter, on an expedition across the vast Amazon Rainforest to explore the mega droughts and tree deaths occurring that threaten the forest's survival this century.



Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

well good night folks..................
502. VR46L
Quoting 501. LargoFl:
well good night folks..................


Night Largo !

Have a good evening !
Quoting 494. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



2015

14 maybe spin rinse repeat
Every 10 years the Atlantic likes to mis-behave.For a example 1985,1995,and 2005 were all unfriendly hurricane seasons.
Quoting 500. FLWeatherFreak91:
I was thinking a lot earlier about weather modification and its effects on atmospheric modeling. Maybe you all can give some insight...

Let's just assume that there is some degree of weather modification being carried out. Either on a small scale such as chaff or on a large scale like HAARP.

The models use climatology to some degree to create their outcomes, so won't skewing natural phenomena provide an incorrect sample of the atmosphere for the models?

Basically, I'm wondering if the models will become confused in regards to the real way the atmosphere naturally works and slowly become unreliable due to weather modification?


Why is the Pacific having a robust season while the Alantic has been non-prolific lately?
Quoting 504. redwagon:


Why is the Pacific having a robust season while the Alantic has been non-prolific lately?
I would say el nino but that's not to happen till next season
New burst of convection in the southwest eyewall:

Quoting 504. redwagon:


Why is the Pacific having a robust season while the Alantic has been non-prolific lately?


Well up until this point the Pacific had been behaving like the Atlantic.
Quoting 500. FLWeatherFreak91:
... Basically, I'm wondering if the models will become confused in regards to the real way the atmosphere naturally works and slowly become unreliable due to weather modification?

If "weather modification" actually worked, then there might be grounds for concern. However, as it is, "weather modification" seems to be little more than a money pit into which groups like DoD and DARPA throw unconscionable amounts of cash that could be better spent elsewhere. So I'm more concerned about the distortion of research funding priorities than the possibility that weather models might become unreliable.
Looks like around the end of this month and start of next month we'll be looking at something in the Western Caribbean as the MJO likely pays us one last visit for the hurricane season.

Quoting 509. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Looks like around the end of this month and start of next month we'll be looking at something in the Western Caribbean as the MJO likely pays us one last visit for the hurricane season.

It's a little to late 2013.
Quoting 509. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Looks like around the end of this month and start of next month we'll be looking at something in the Western Caribbean as the MJO likely pays us one last visit for the hurricane season.



what MJO?? seems like the MJO been on vacation for all this season the MJO been in the E and W PAC most of hurricane season this year why you think the E PAC has 18 name storms and the W PAC 28 name storms
Quoting 510. washingtonian115:
It's a little to late 2013.
ya but we can or could get one little something maybe a big something but time is running out when the window opens it will be short then slam shut for what remains of the season

I wouldn't be sure of Raymond staying offshore. As I talked about yesterday, a deeper tropical cyclone will be able to feel the weakness over northern Mexico more and be pulled in that direction. The GFS and ECMWF, which keep the system offshore in the short term, did not pick up on this round of rapid intensification.

The NHC noted the uncertainty:

THE HWRF
AND GFDL NOW BOTH SHOW THE CYCLONE MOVING INLAND BY 36 HOURS...
WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BRING THE CENTER OF RAYMOND VERY CLOSE
TO THE COAST AROUND THAT TIME. THE NHC TRACK DOES NOT SHOW
LANDFALL...BUT HAS BEEN NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND IS FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF
THE TVCE CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE WEAKENING STEERING CURRENTS AND THE
LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE
TRACK...AND WHETHER THE CENTER OF RAYMOND WILL REACH THE COAST...
REMAINS QUITE LOW...AND ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

Quoting 509. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Looks like around the end of this month and start of next month we'll be looking at something in the Western Caribbean as the MJO likely pays us one last visit for the hurricane season.

can`t believe a system name Lorenzo to be strong.That name usually scream to name weak storm.
RAP model 21z forecast sfc temps lows tonight
Quoting 514. allancalderini:
can`t believe a system name Lorenzo to be strong.That name usually scream to name weak storm.
Sandy doesn't sound like a storm that would be strong to me. Look what it did. You never know :p


Typhoon 26W FANSISCO

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 OCT 2013 Time : 223000 UTC
Lat : 19:53:15 N Lon : 136:16:53 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 941.8mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.5 5.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : -12.5C Cloud Region Temp : -65.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 122km
- Environmental MSLP : 1002mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 25.3 degrees


Quoting 517. Doppler22:
Sandy doesn't sound like a storm that would be strong to me. Look what it did. You never know :p
Lol true but its a beautiful name for girls.When I have a daughter might consider that name.:P
Quoting 519. allancalderini:
Lol true but its a beautiful name for girls.When I have a daughter might consider that name.:P

Yeah, I prefer Isabel myself. Beautiful name, beautiful hurricane.
Quoting 514. allancalderini:
can`t believe a system name Lorenzo to be strong.That name usually scream to name weak storm.

Believe it or not but Lorenzo does sound like a name for a strong hurricane.
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013

RAYMOND HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY QUICKLY. THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH A BAND OF COLD CONVECTIVE
TOPS WRAPPING AROUND THE THE CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF T3.5
FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND AN ASCAT PASS FROM JUST BEFORE 1600 UTC
SUPPORTED AN INTENSITY OF 55 KT AT SYNOPTIC TIME. HOWEVER...AN EYE
FEATURE HAS SINCE BEEN DEVELOPING IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...AND
THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION...AND THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS RAYMOND REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH SOON...AND PEAKS
THE SYSTEM AT 85 KT FROM 24 THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT RAYMOND COULD GET STRONG THAN THIS IF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
CONTINUES. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM THROUGH 36 HOURS
AND NEAR A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM AFTER THAT TIME. THIS
FORECAST IS A QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
AIDS...SINCE THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS BOTH SHOW WEAKENING AFTER
MOVING THE CENTER OF RAYMOND INLAND.

A BLEND OF RECENT FIXES AND THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST AN
INITIAL MOTION OF 340/06...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. RAYMOND SHOULD TURN SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. AFTER THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT...STEERING
CURRENTS WILL WEAKEN ON DAYS 2 AND 3...WITH A SLOW AND ERRATIC
MOTION LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. CONSIDERABLE DETAIL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN IN THE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY CONCERNING HOW CLOSE THE CENTER
WILL GET TO THE COAST...AND WHETHER LANDFALL WILL OCCUR. THE HWRF
AND GFDL NOW BOTH SHOW THE CYCLONE MOVING INLAND BY 36 HOURS...
WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BRING THE CENTER OF RAYMOND VERY CLOSE
TO THE COAST AROUND THAT TIME. THE NHC TRACK DOES NOT SHOW
LANDFALL...BUT HAS BEEN NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND IS FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF
THE TVCE CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE WEAKENING STEERING CURRENTS AND THE
LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE
TRACK...AND WHETHER THE CENTER OF RAYMOND WILL REACH THE COAST...
REMAINS QUITE LOW...AND ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

GIVEN THE NEW NHC FORECAST AND THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF
RAYMOND...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FROM ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS.

REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE CENTER OF RAYMOND MOVES INLAND...HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 15.6N 101.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 15.9N 101.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 16.3N 101.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 16.6N 101.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 16.8N 101.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
Quoting 522. hurricanes2018:

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013

RAYMOND HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY QUICKLY. THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH A BAND OF COLD CONVECTIVE
TOPS WRAPPING AROUND THE THE CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF T3.5
FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND AN ASCAT PASS FROM JUST BEFORE 1600 UTC
SUPPORTED AN INTENSITY OF 55 KT AT SYNOPTIC TIME. HOWEVER...AN EYE
FEATURE HAS SINCE BEEN DEVELOPING IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...AND
THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION...AND THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS RAYMOND REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH SOON...AND PEAKS
THE SYSTEM AT 85 KT FROM 24 THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT RAYMOND COULD GET STRONG THAN THIS IF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
CONTINUES. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM THROUGH 36 HOURS
AND NEAR A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM AFTER THAT TIME. THIS
FORECAST IS A QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
AIDS...SINCE THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS BOTH SHOW WEAKENING AFTER
MOVING THE CENTER OF RAYMOND INLAND.

A BLEND OF RECENT FIXES AND THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST AN
INITIAL MOTION OF 340/06...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. RAYMOND SHOULD TURN SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. AFTER THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT...STEERING
CURRENTS WILL WEAKEN ON DAYS 2 AND 3...WITH A SLOW AND ERRATIC
MOTION LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. CONSIDERABLE DETAIL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN IN THE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY CONCERNING HOW CLOSE THE CENTER
WILL GET TO THE COAST...AND WHETHER LANDFALL WILL OCCUR. THE HWRF
AND GFDL NOW BOTH SHOW THE CYCLONE MOVING INLAND BY 36 HOURS...
WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BRING THE CENTER OF RAYMOND VERY CLOSE
TO THE COAST AROUND THAT TIME. THE NHC TRACK DOES NOT SHOW
LANDFALL...BUT HAS BEEN NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND IS FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF
THE TVCE CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE WEAKENING STEERING CURRENTS AND THE
LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE
TRACK...AND WHETHER THE CENTER OF RAYMOND WILL REACH THE COAST...
REMAINS QUITE LOW...AND ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

GIVEN THE NEW NHC FORECAST AND THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF
RAYMOND...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FROM ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS.

REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE CENTER OF RAYMOND MOVES INLAND...HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 15.6N 101.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 15.9N 101.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 16.3N 101.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 16.6N 101.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 16.8N 101.8W 85 KT 100 MPH


winds 100 mph!!
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CHILD ABDUCTION EMERGENCY
SOUTH CAROLINA LAW ENFORCEMENT DIVISION IN COLUMBIA SOUTH
CAROLINA
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
728 PM EDT SUN OCT 20 2013

...CHILD ABDUCTION EMERGENCY...

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA LAW ENFORCEMENT DIVISION IN COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA.

WE HAVE JUST RECEIVED THIS IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT REGARDING AN
ABDUCTED CHILD IN SIMPSONVILLE SOUTH CAROLINA.

THE SOUTH CAROLINA STATE LAW ENFORCEMENT DIVISION IS LOOKING FOR
JUSTIN SANTIAGO PEREZ...A 2 FOOT 5 INCH TWO YEAR OLD HISPANIC MALE
WITH SHORT BLACK HAIR AND BROWN EYES WEIGHING 30 POUNDS. THE
CHILD WAS LAST SEEN WEARING RED ELMO PAJAMAS AND A WHITE GUESS
SHIRT. THE CHILD WAS LAST SEEN AT 729 SOUTHEAST MAIN STREET IN
SIMPSONVILLE AND IS BELIEVED TO BE IN EXTREME DANGER.

AUTHORITIES ADVISE THE CHILD WAS LIKELY ABDUCTED BY WBERNEL
PEREZ A 5 FOOT 6 INCH 35 YEAR OLD HISPANIC MALE WITH BROWN BLACK
HAIR AND BROWN EYES WEIGHING 140 POUNDS. THEY MAY BE TRAVELING IN
A BLACK 2010 HYUNDAI ELANTRA WITH SOUTH CAROLINA PLATE HLX-732.

IF YOU HAVE ANY INFORMATION REGARDING THIS ABDUCTION, CALL LAW
ENFORCEMENT IMMEDIATELY.

Possible Suspect:


winds 100 mph in 72 hours.
Quoting 514. allancalderini:
can`t believe a system name Lorenzo to be strong.That name usually scream to name weak storm.
Well not many "L" named storms have been retired. Only 3 "L" named storms have been retired: Luis, Lili, and Lenny.


Cloudtops as a whole are rapidly warming, sort of odd if you ask me.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 20 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE
FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD...THEN TURNS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.
Quoting 527. Jedkins01:


Cloudtops as a whole are rapidly warming, sort of odd if you ask me.

Ocean Heat Content has dropped to nothing. That's probably the reason.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 20 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE
FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD...THEN TURNS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.

&&
something to watch
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
9:00 AM FST October 21 2013
====================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 02F (1005 hPa) located at 5.3S 171.5E is reported as moving west southwest at 10 knots. Position poor based on multispectral visible imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Convection persistent in the past 24 hours. Organization has not improved past 24 hours. System lies under an upper diffluent region in a low sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500hpa.

Global models have picked up the system and move it southwest with slight intensification.

The potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is low.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAYMOND INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
500 PM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013

...RAYMOND BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 101.9W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES
...RAYMOND BECOMES A HURRICANE...
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAYMOND INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
500 PM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013

...RAYMOND BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 101.9W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAYMOND WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.9 WEST. RAYMOND IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A NORTHWARD MOTION WITH
A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

RAYMOND IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WIND EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 15 MILES...25 KM FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATE
OF GUERRERO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
UP TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ADJACENT BORDERING STATES OF
OAXACA AND MICHOACAN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA BY LATE MONDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAYMOND ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

Quoting 529. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Ocean Heat Content has dropped to nothing. That's probably the reason.


Oh I didn't know, I assumed it was pretty uniform for a while, that is probably why then.


National Weather Service New Orleans la
357 PM CDT sun Oct 20 2013

Short term...

A region of enhanced baroclinicity across the northwest Gulf of Mexico...combined with broad region of enhanced forcing beneath the right rear quadrant of 120 knot jet streak will allow for the formation of a surface low over the northwest Gulf tonight into
tomorrow morning.

At the same time...a broad region of increased positive vorticity advection in advance of an approaching short- wave trough currently diving southward through the Central Plains will produce strong middle to upper level Omega values and resultant forcing across the Gulf south tomorrow. As the surface low strengthens tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening...warm
frontal processes will develop with isentropically induced showers developing over the coastal waters and immediate Louisiana coast by early afternoon.

These showers will continue to spread inland
as the warm front moves onshore late Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Have included a chance of probability of precipitation for areas south of
the Interstate 10 corridor. There will be a very sharp gradient in terms of precipitation...as the moisture gradually builds down from the mid-levels. As a result...expect to see increasing clouds but no shower activity over the northern zones in southwest Mississippi.

By tomorrow night

...widespread isentropic lift will be in place
across areas north of Interstate 10...with light to moderate rain showers expected. Forcing will be additionally enhanced by the approaching short wave trough and attendant surface boundary.
The warm frontal boundary in advance of the surface low will be draped along the Interstate 10 corridor...allowing for a bit more instability across coastal Louisiana and metropolitan New Orleans.

Have included a slight chance of thunderstorms for these areas...including the offshore waters. The threat of strong convection will be limited...due to fairly weak lapse rates aloft.

The surface low will quickly shift to the east on
Tuesday...allowing the surface front to sweep through the forecast area.

Expect to see early morning precipitation to quickly end by late morning for most areas. Only a few lingering showers are expected by Tuesday afternoon along the immediate coast. An elevated inversion tied in with the frontal passage should keep a lingering stratus deck in place through the day...with rapid
clearing during the overnight hours as the main upper level trough axis sweeps through and a much colder and drier airmass begins to advect in.
How intense do you guys think Raymond could get?
LBAR still likes my living room.
Hmm finally something in the Atlantic
Yellow on the TWO

000
ABNT20 KNHC 202335
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 20 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE
FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD...THEN TURNS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 20 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE
FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD...THEN TURNS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

FORECASTER BROWN
18z gfs shows snow for washi and me and other folks in the Maryland area finally amem
Quoting 542. wunderkidcayman:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 202335
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 20 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE
FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD...THEN TURNS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...


Oh, didn't see that. It actually looks somewhat healthy. I don't think will do anything, and if it does, it won't last long most likely. At least it's something to watch.
Quoting 544. Climate175:
18z gfs shows snow for washi and me and other folks in the Maryland area finally
Dang please verify GFS.. snow snow snow
Quoting 544. Climate175:
18z gfs shows snow for washi and me and other folks in the Maryland area finally amem


could you post something,(a link is fine to) so I can see if I will get any snow?
Quoting 548. Hurricane614:


could you post something,(a link is fine to) so I can see if I will get any snow?
Ok where are you at ?

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 3h

http://Weatherbell.com 5 pm Sun Oct 21,2012 map sent to clients, saying tropical wave would become hurricane, hit NE pic.twitter.com/3NmJi6aqWs

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/ 2013102018/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us.html
starting at 252 hours





Woo... 3 inches!
Quoting 508. EstherD:

If "weather modification" actually worked, then there might be grounds for concern. However, as it is, "weather modification" seems to be little more than a money pit into which groups like DoD and DARPA throw unconscionable amounts of cash that could be better spent elsewhere. So I'm more concerned about the distortion of research funding priorities than the possibility that weather models might become unreliable.
The Navy actually spent the first black money on the Alaska project. If you are still on the fence as to whether it is real, I suggest you do some more research. It is based on Tesla tech. It can either bounce off the ionosphere or blast a hole in it, small or wide. If you make a hole then it heals ... slowly, but the cold travels down and the scar travels as it normally would. I liken that to an amateur thrown bowling ball spinning down an uneven lane. There are more than one HAARP stations now,and they interact with each other and devices on Navy ships. No one is sure what they are doing with the pulses, but given the nature of the program, and the history of the military experimenting on Americans, I really would not put anything past them.
Quoting 550. ncstorm:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 3h

http://Weatherbell.com 5 pm Sun Oct 21,2012 map sent to clients, saying tropical wave would become hurricane, hit NE pic.twitter.com/3NmJi6aqWs



That seriously scared me for a couple seconds, before I realized it was from last year.
Quoting 551. Climate175:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gf s/ 2013102018/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us.html


Thanks!
Quoting 553. Hurricane614:
Woo... 3 inches!
Which area are you from ?
Quoting 557. Climate175:
Which area are you from ?


Although it's later in the run, at like 252 hours, I live in southeastern NY
Quoting 558. Hurricane614:


Although it's later in the run, at like 252 hours, I live in southeastern NY
Im in Maryland i think i get 2 inches wohoo ! Hopefully it will be on the 00z run..
Quoting 559. Climate175:
Im in Maryland i think i get 2 inches wohoo ! Hopefully it will be on the 00z run..


I hope so to! Anyway long day ahead tomorrow so I'm going to try and get some sleep. Hope you get some snow.
EP, 17, 2013102100, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1019W, 65, 989, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 15, 0, 15, 1007, 150, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, RAYMOND, D,
Quoting 540. Patrap:
LBAR still likes my living room.


Oh come on. You know we'd only get a very diffuse mid-level center interacting with a front. :P
So let me get this Correct the GFs is saying snow from another Rare October Snow Event for Baltimore and DC very soon ok lets go !!
Quoting 550. ncstorm:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 3h

http://Weatherbell.com 5 pm Sun Oct 21,2012 map sent to clients, saying tropical wave would become hurricane, hit NE pic.twitter.com/3NmJi6aqWs



Whoa. At first I read that as October 21, 2013. I was about to completely discredit Bastardi as a forecaster.

Whew.
Both are impressive. The second trough will probably have high winds associated with the low..
Kinda hoping Raymond becomes a major hurricane, just so we don't end the season with none.

Lord knows there probably won't be one in the Atlantic.
Quoting 362. TropicalAnalystwx13:

A lot of meteorologists have attributed a warm subtropical Atlantic to the bust. I guess it's possible but years in the past had the same feature with no issues in terms of activity or strength. Others have attributed a switch to the negative AMO but monthly indices have been even higher than last year. For whatever reason, the MJO has vanished several times upon entering the Atlantic this year despite model projections.

Lots of research needs to be done. I don't think we will know the answer anytime soon.
This season is weird.

In the global tropics, we don't have an El Nino, the Indian ocean and SE Asia region (monsoon) is not anomalous in a bad way, the African monsoon is very healthy, and SSTAs in the tropical Atlantic are above average. All the things we normally look for as problems are not problems. This means we have to look in places we wouldn't normally look. Here are a few problems I have found in plotting at PSD for Jul-Sep:

1. There is a large zonal band of upward motion over the Pacific just off the equator. This upward motion band is not indicative of an El Nino, but such a large band of upward motion right next door to our basin can't be good.




2. Broad Hadley cell in the North Atlantic (meridional overturning). A lack of convergence coming into the MDR from the subtropical high in the NATL at the low levels. The lowest levels of the atmosphere (from 850-sfc) experienced lower (anomalous) pressures in the subtropics than the deep tropics, robbing the tropics of their convergence. In the upper levels the problem is also evident by a higher height anomalies over the deep tropics and lower height anomalies over the subtropics. The subtropical SSTA profile and PDO are responsible for this.

3. Subtropical ridging in the South Atlantic (image). Ridging persisted in the central subtropical South Atlantic all season long. Strong subsidence was created on the backside of the ridge (positive omega off Africa below) advecting large amounts of anomalously dry air directly into the tropical Atlantic (second image).

Omega Anomaly




Vector Wind Anomaly

Quoting 565. hydrus:
Both are impressive. The second trough will probably have high winds associated with the low..
Does that mean snow in Maryland ?????
Quoting 550. ncstorm:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 3h

http://Weatherbell.com 5 pm Sun Oct 21,2012 map sent to clients, saying tropical wave would become hurricane, hit NE pic.twitter.com/3NmJi6aqWs


???
Are we all somewhat agreeing that a lack of an El-Nino caused this Atlantic Hurricane Season to be a dud, just in the overall sense of things?
Quoting 540. Patrap:
LBAR still likes my living room.
Always better to have a BAR in your living room rather then Katrina or Betsy....
Quoting 570. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Are we all somewhat agreeing that a lack of an El-Nino caused this Atlantic Hurricane Season to be a dud, just in the overall sense of things?


Not really. Why do you say that?
Quoting 572. KoritheMan:


Not really. Why do you say that?
Well the season behaved like as if it was an El-Nino. We had strong Southwesterly Windshear from a persistent trough from the Central Caribbean northeastward towards the Central Atlantic along that trough we had ULL's or cut-off lows breaking off from it, not only inducing shear, but dry air into the systems that actually developed. We also had one of the biggest observed SAL outbreaks ever recorded, back in August I think that it made it all the way across the Atlantic and into the Caribbean. The only thing we had going for us was the warm sst and high TCHP content. So is this just typical of how a neutral ENSO behaves? or was this season an anomaly?
Quoting 568. Climate175:
Does that mean snow in Maryland ?????
To far out. The models have done really well with the troughs. We should have a good idea whats in store within a few days. The latest GFS has the last storm to be large and powerful..

Quoting 554. Pallis:
The Navy actually spent the first black money on the Alaska project. If you are still on the fence as to whether it is real, I suggest you do some more research. It is based on Tesla tech. It can either bounce off the ionosphere or blast a hole in it, small or wide. If you make a hole then it heals ... slowly, but the cold travels down and the scar travels as it normally would. I liken that to an amateur thrown bowling ball spinning down an uneven lane. There are more than one HAARP stations now,and they interact with each other and devices on Navy ships. No one is sure what they are doing with the pulses, but given the nature of the program, and the history of the military experimenting on Americans, I really would not put anything past them.

Yes, I am aware that certain techniques can cause transient, localized effects. So I will amend my previous statement:
If "weather modification" actually worked on a global scale, then there might be grounds for concern... that weather models might become unreliable.

And yes I am aware of "the history of the military experimenting on Americans", which makes me very nervous about the things that our government is doing in secret. But I'm still not quite ready for a tinfoil hat just yet.
Quoting 573. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Well the season behaved like as if it was an El-Nino. We had strong Southwesterly Windshear from a persistent trough from the Central Caribbean northeastward towards the Central Atlantic along that trough we had ULL's or cut-off lows breaking off from it, not only inducing shear, but dry air into the systems that actually developed. We also had one of the biggest observed SAL outbreaks ever recorded, back in August I think that it made it all the way across the Atlantic and into the Caribbean. The only thing we had going for us was the warm sst and high TCHP content. So is this just typical of how a neutral ENSO behaves? or was this season an anomaly?


The latter.

Still don't see how that has anything to do with the state of ENSO though, lol.
Raymond is a solid hurricane.

Quoting 576. KoritheMan:


The latter.

Still don't see how that has anything to do with the state of ENSO though, lol.
Those 2 features the TUTT and SAL were permanent features during the 2006 El-Nino season. We don't have quite as many TUTT cells and outbreaks of SAL in a La-Nina season, we sure didn't have it during the past 3 seasons.
Quoting 578. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Those 2 features the TUTT and SAL were permanent features during the 2006 El-Nino season. We don't have quite as many TUTT cells and outbreaks of SAL in a La-Nina season, we sure didn't have it during the past 3 seasons.


There may be certain similarities, but that likely has little to do with ENSO (which by the way, was neither close to El Nino nor close to La Nina for any significant period of time) and more to do with unknown large-scale synoptic features, as Jordan pointed out.
Quoting 574. hydrus:
To far out. The models have done really well with the troughs. We should have a good idea whats in store within a few days. The latest GFS has the last storm to be large and powerful..

Dang we are gonna get dumped ..
No recon until Tuesday afternoon...

Quoting 554. Pallis:
The Navy actually spent the first black money on the Alaska project. If you are still on the fence as to whether it is real, I suggest you do some more research. It is based on Tesla tech. It can either bounce off the ionosphere or blast a hole in it, small or wide. If you make a hole then it heals ... slowly, but the cold travels down and the scar travels as it normally would. I liken that to an amateur thrown bowling ball spinning down an uneven lane. There are more than one HAARP stations now,and they interact with each other and devices on Navy ships. No one is sure what they are doing with the pulses, but given the nature of the program, and the history of the military experimenting on Americans, I really would not put anything past them.
Conspiracy theories have no more place on a science forum than Birtherism had on a political forum, if you ask me. I wish everyone would stick with evidence and fact, and leave the other stuff for the Weekly World News...

Just a thought...
Quoting 581. TropicalAnalystwx13:
No recon until Tuesday afternoon...



Didn't know they were flying. Cool.
Quoting 582. Neapolitan:
Conspiracy theories have no more place on a science forum than Birtherism had on a political forum, if you ask me. I wish everyone would stick with evidence and fact, and leave the other stuff for the Weekly World News...

Just a thought...


Nonsense! That would be too... logical!
Quoting 573. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Well the season behaved like as if it was an El-Nino. We had strong Southwesterly Windshear from a persistent trough from the Central Caribbean northeastward towards the Central Atlantic along that trough we had ULL's or cut-off lows breaking off from it, not only inducing shear, but dry air into the systems that actually developed. We also had one of the biggest observed SAL outbreaks ever recorded, back in August I think that it made it all the way across the Atlantic and into the Caribbean. The only thing we had going for us was the warm sst and high TCHP content. So is this just typical of how a neutral ENSO behaves? or was this season an anomaly?
I hate to blow your mind, but we are all getting our information from an easily controlled/altered source. That is why I want you all to send me a dollar for my organic doppler system. Sure, we only serve Florida, but with the customer base we can branch out before next season.By the way, did you notice that T.S. just closed circulation? It broke a little right after, but I saw it.
Quoting 563. Climate175:
So let me get this Correct the GFs is saying snow from another Rare October Snow Event for Baltimore and DC very soon ok lets go !!
The GFS has lied so many times to me in terms of snow.
@ 550. ncstorm
Glad to see I wasn't the only one who misjudged this curveball. Had to stare at it three times before I noticed "Sandy" and "2012". Whew! is right!
588. beell
Quoting 580. Climate175:
Dang we are gonna get dumped ..


Maybe if you're in Canada or near the Great Lakes.
Quoting 583. KoritheMan:


Didn't know they were flying. Cool.


Hi Kori. Hopefully it doesn't make landfall before they go and have the data from the plane and see how strong Raymond is.

PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....PSBL MISSION FOR 22/1800Z
NEAR 16.5N AND 102.0W
Zero major hurricanes for 2013...Not only a "bust", but a huge blow for AGW sheeple... who affirmed over half a decade back that there would be more intense hurricanes but perhaps less TCs in general... last two years, 30/12/2... long term ratio, 22:13:6...
Quoting 579. KoritheMan:


There may be certain similarities, but that likely has little to do with ENSO (which by the way, was neither close to El Nino nor close to La Nina for any significant period of time) and more to do with unknown large-scale synoptic features, as Jordan pointed out.
Oh yeah I know what you mean and I actually like Jordan's explanation well though out and breaks it down into a smaller scale. I was just referring to the whole El-Nino thing in a general sense.

Quoting 586. washingtonian115:
The GFS has lied so many times to me in terms of snow.
Lets see what it says at the 00z update
12z ECMWF:


Quoting 590. UNThurricane2019:
Zero major hurricanes for 2013...Not only a "bust", but a huge blow for AGW sheeple... who affirmed over half a decade back that there would be more intense hurricanes but perhaps less TCs in general... last two years, 30/12/2... long term ratio, 11:6:3...


That was an original prognosis I suppose, but that theory has largely been abandoned in favor of decreasing cyclones, but more intense ones. The decrease presumably resulting from a less pronounced temperature gradient between the tropics and the poles (remember, hurricanes are necessary heat distributors), but the net result of theoretically stronger cyclones being from warming sea surface temperatures due to global warming.

So no, there still isn't a hole in the AGW theory, if you were looking for one.
Quoting 590. UNThurricane2019:
Zero major hurricanes for 2013...Not only a "bust", but a huge blow for AGW sheeple... who affirmed over half a decade back that there would be more intense hurricanes but perhaps less TCs in general... last two years, 30/12/2... long term ratio, 22:13:6...
Lowrd..(lord)...
Quoting 588. beell:


Maybe if you're in Canada or near the Great Lakes.
Nope..
Quoting 596. Climate175:
Nope..
We must once agaib be the snowiest city in the country..
Baltimore: 79.9"
Syracuse, NY 76.1"
Washington (Dulles) 72.8"
Philadelphia: 72.1"
Rochester, NY: 63.9"
Buffalo: 63.9"
Pittsburgh: 58.6"
Des Moines: 52.6"
Bangor, ME: 52.1
Binghamton, NY 51.6"
Chicago: 45.1
Omaha, NE: 44.9
Denver: 41.1"
Cleveland: 39.4"
Minneapolis: 38.1"
Green Bay: 34.2"
Milwaukee: 30.8"
Boston: 30.1
Detroit: 27.5"
Kansas City: 27.4"
New York City: 25.5"
Salt Lake City: 24.9"
Dallas: 14.4"
Nashville 6.5"
Raleigh-Durham: 5.1"
Atlanta Georgia 4.2
Quoting 597. Climate175:
We must once again be the snowiest city in the country..
Quoting 590. UNThurricane2019:
Zero major hurricanes for 2013...Not only a "bust", but a huge blow for AGW sheeple... who affirmed over half a decade back that there would be more intense hurricanes but perhaps less TCs in general... last two years, 30/12/2... long term ratio, 22:13:6...

You're a bit out to lunch on AGW. I suggest you read the science.
Quoting 600. Birthmark:

You're a bit out to lunch on AGW. I suggest you read the science.
I got a better idea me and you can take him for lunch and show him the science. :D
Quoting 601. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I got a better idea me and you can take him for lunch and show him the science. :D

You buying? :)
Excerpt from the Miami NWS Disco...

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY)...
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ENOUGH THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL OOZE INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA WEDNESDAY EVENING SO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY COULD STILL SEE
SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEHIND THE FRONT, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE
AND BE LESS HUMID FOR THURSDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT
WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS WHERE IT WILL STALL AND MAY
BEGIN TO MOVE BACK NORTH IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER DEVELOPING TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT TOO EARLY TO TELL AT THIS
POINT IN TIME.

For West Palm Beach..

Quoting 597. Climate175:
We must once agaib be the snowiest city in the country..


unless you live around Syracuse, N.Y .. that area receives more snow on average then any where else in the us .. averaging near or over 100 inches a season ..
Quoting 570. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Are we all somewhat agreeing that a lack of an El-Nino caused this Atlantic Hurricane Season to be a dud, just in the overall sense of things?
No I believe Stable air was a big factor to it but I don`t believe a lack of El Niño to be a problem.
Quoting 590. UNThurricane2019:
Zero major hurricanes for 2013...Not only a "bust", but a huge blow for AGW sheeple... who affirmed over half a decade back that there would be more intense hurricanes but perhaps less TCs in general... last two years, 30/12/2... long term ratio, 22:13:6...


The reason the season had a lack of major hurricanes this season was the lack of vertical instability in the Atlantic. We also saw this in 2012 and 2011, but this year had it much worse. Arguably, this is because there's simply no focus of heat in our basin. Having no focus of heat results in less active hurricane seasons. Hurricanes act as the A/C units of the Atlantic, bringing warm water up to the polar regions. Waters already plenty warm there, making the need for hurricanes less and less necessary in my opinion.

NOAA officials have been stating that tropical cyclone activity would remain the same or slightly less. What don't people get about this? It's the media with their outlandish headlines like "HURRICANES TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND POWERFUL SCIENTISTS SAY" to attract views, because they know that's all people are going to read into it, while completely spinning the worlds of the climatologist or weather forecaster -- or bringing in someone who has absolutely no idea what they're talking about.

The Pacific has also been suffering this season, but has recently decided to show off with numerous powerful typhoons (yes, those actually do count as hurricanes, shocking, the Atlantic isn't the only basin that matters) including just yesterday a Super Typhoon and a few weeks before that one of the strongest storms ever recorded in the northern-Indian ocean. But still it doesn't make up for the fact the Pacific has been rather stagnant this year in ACE counts, and in the last few years the case has been the same.

I'd argue that the period of activity in the Atlantic, which started in 1995, ended in 2010 when vertical instability in the Atlantic started becoming below average in the MDR.
Quoting 575. EstherD:

Yes, I am aware that certain techniques can cause transient, localized effects. So I will amend my previous statement:
If "weather modification" actually worked on a global scale, then there might be grounds for concern... that weather models might become unreliable.

And yes I am aware of "the history of the military experimenting on Americans", which makes me very nervous about the things that our government is doing in secret. But I'm still not quite ready for a tinfoil hat just yet.
Quoting 590. UNThurricane2019:
Zero major hurricanes for 2013...Not only a "bust", but a huge blow for AGW sheeple... who affirmed over half a decade back that there would be more intense hurricanes but perhaps less TCs in general... last two years, 30/12/2... long term ratio, 22:13:6...
Quoting 585. Pallis:
I hate to blow your mind, but we are all getting our information from an easily controlled/altered source. That is why I want you all to send me a dollar for my organic doppler system. Sure, we only serve Florida, but with the customer base we can branch out before next season.By the way, did you notice that T.S. just closed circulation? It broke a little right after, but I saw it.


Using Dr. Master's blog to hit people up for money? Are you serious?
607. Good, don't put on the tinfoil hat. I sometimes think that conspiracy theorists don't even know what the government is doing to modify the weather. They're all over the place and it's rather hilarious. If they're trying to modify the weather for sinister reasons, wouldn't we have had Category 5 landfalls one after another? And if they're trying to protect us, why have events like Sandy, Irene, Gustav, et al happened in the last few years? They're doing a lousy job either way if they're trying to modify the weather.

People usually point towards HAARP for whatever reason, but they're usually at a loss to explain what HAARP is. It's an ionospheric research program, meaning it's goal is to research the atmosphere from 85 kilometers to 600 kilometers.. the orbits of the ISS and Hubble Space Telescope lie in those regions. Most of the people who believe in this theory can't even identify where the ionosphere is.
Quoting 609. DonnieBwkGA:


Using Dr. Master's blog to hit people up for money? Are you serious?
Sorry Donny, that was a joke, you did not have your humor button clicked. Although I would like my own Doppler radar, and if you all just sent me a dollar ...
Quoting 609. DonnieBwkGA:


Using Dr. Master's blog to hit people up for money? Are you serious?
Can I hit up everyone on here for 10 bucks each then :D.
Interesting surroundings for Francisco
TD27 is evaporating..

Quoting 610. CybrTeddy:
607. Good, don't put on the tinfoil hat. I sometimes don't think that conspiracy theorists even know what the government is doing to so much as modify the weather. They're all over the place and it's rather hilarious. If they're trying to modify the weather for sinister reasons, wouldn't we have had Category 5 landfalls one after another? And if they're trying to protect us, why have events like Sandy, Irene, Gustav, et al happened in the last few years? They're doing a lousy job either way if they're trying to modify the weather.

People usually point towards HAARP for whatever reason, but they're usually at a loss to explain what HAARP is. It's an ionospheric research program, meaning it's goal is to research the atmosphere from 85 kilometers to 600 kilometers.. the orbits of the ISS and Hubble Space Telescope lie in those regions. Most of the people who believe in this theory can't even identify where the ionosphere is.
NRL Scientists Produce Densest Artificial Ionospheric Plasma ...
www.nrl.navy.mil › ... › News Releases › 2013 News Releases‎. At the very least you can blame them for your cell phone not working and your internet connection being untrustworthy. So, do you agree that a coc was there concerning Raymond? Or are you looking at an alternative radar? This is a test.
616. SLU
Quoting 590. UNThurricane2019:
Zero major hurricanes for 2013...Not only a "bust", but a huge blow for AGW sheeple... who affirmed over half a decade back that there would be more intense hurricanes but perhaps less TCs in general... last two years, 30/12/2... long term ratio, 22:13:6...


+100000000000000000000000000000
Quoting 615. Pallis:
... At the very least you can blame them for your cell phone not working and your internet connection being untrustworthy. ...

Eh? Cellphones use line-of-sight radio, and most Internet connections are via copper or fiber, although some (like mine) use the same radio technology as cellphones, and some use satellites. None of these technologies is in any way dependent on the ionosphere.
Quoting 612. washingtonian115:
Can I hit up everyone on here for 10 bucks each then :D.
Only if it is organic, and has do do with weather.
2013 has a shot of tying the record for fewest hurricanes in a season during the satellite era - 2.


620. SLU
Quoting 590. UNThurricane2019:
Zero major hurricanes for 2013...Not only a "bust", but a huge blow for AGW sheeple... who affirmed over half a decade back that there would be more intense hurricanes but perhaps less TCs in general... last two years, 30/12/2... long term ratio, 22:13:6...


... and an average of 17-7.75-3 so far this decade. If I add 2009, 15.4-6.8-2.8.

So much for fewer TC's and more powerful hurricanes with 2014 set to potentially be another sub-par season relative to normal.
Quoting 608. Jedkins01:
The problem is he's right.
Quoting 610. CybrTeddy:
607. Good, don't put on the tinfoil hat. I sometimes think that conspiracy theorists don't even know what the government is doing to modify the weather. They're all over the place and it's rather hilarious. If they're trying to modify the weather for sinister reasons, wouldn't we have had Category 5 landfalls one after another? And if they're trying to protect us, why have events like Sandy, Irene, Gustav, et al happened in the last few years? They're doing a lousy job either way if they're trying to modify the weather.

People usually point towards HAARP for whatever reason, but they're usually at a loss to explain what HAARP is. It's an ionospheric research program, meaning it's goal is to research the atmosphere from 85 kilometers to 600 kilometers.. the orbits of the ISS and Hubble Space Telescope lie in those regions. Most of the people who believe in this theory can't even identify where the ionosphere is.


The government does a lousy job at everything.

But in all seriousness, people who blame the government for extreme weather, or lack there of, need to learn some actual meteorology.
Sitting here at my beach house in new smyrna beach. Ocean temp here is 83 in late October amazing!
Quoting 621. StormTrackerScott:
The problem is he's right.

Not concerning AGW. But I don't think it can be contested that this season is a "bust."
Raymond is now nearing Category 2 intensity.

EP, 17, 2013102100, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1019W, 80, 978, HU
Quoting EstherD:

Eh? Cellphones use line-of-site radio, and most Internet connections are via copper or fiber, although some (like mine) use the same radio technology as cellphones, and some use satellites. None of these technologies is in any way dependent on the ionosphere.

Assuming that somehow you could create an extremely dense ionospheric atmosphere, it would affect anything that uses radio frequencies, from cell phones, which are only line of sight from you to a tower, and then depends on microwave or satellite, and your internet connection nearly all of which depend on satellite for at least one hop. The whole thing sounds nuts anyway, but any country or entity that could control atmospheric density could cause us lots of problems with almost all our electronics.
Quoting 616. SLU:


100000000000000000000000000000

Perhaps it'd be worth a plus if the comment was actually accurate.
Quoting 617. EstherD:

Eh? Cellphones use line-of-sight radio, and most Internet connections are via copper or fiber, although some (like mine) use the same radio technology as cellphones, and some use satellites. None of these technologies is in any way dependent on the ionosphere.
If there is a hole in the ionosphere, depending on where it is located on the Earth, certain elements can get in, or out. If someone is using your Dsl copper based mainframe for their fancy little gadgets(your kids), and the grid gets slow from sunspot interference, then the laptops. ect. could decrease band with. Like I said. You "COULD" blame HAARP for your slow or not working devises.
Radio signals under 30 MHz (give or take) are reflected off the ionosphere back to Earth, whereas radio signals over 30 MHz (give or take) normally go straight through the ionosphere. Saying that anything is not dependent on the ionosphere is ridiculous though. In that case we might as well just do away with it. Just watch the movie Hairspray and it will go away.
And perhaps so would mine if I knew how to spell. :) Corrected it.
Some day (I hope!) some of you may learn how science really works.

Scientific theories are not built like a house of cards, such that if you pull out the right one, the entire thing collapses.

Rather, they're constructed as a network of ideas -- like a fishnet: You may be able to break one (or even a few) of the cords, but even if you do that, all that will happen is that a few of the little fishes will escape... the whale ain't likely goin' nowhere.
631. SLU
Quoting 627. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Perhaps it'd be worst a plus if the comment was actually accurate.


Well at least he was right on the bust comment for sure. No subjectivity there.
Quoting 627. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Perhaps it'd be worth a plus if the comment was actually accurate.


oh its accurate and was said by many of the beloved posters on here..I'm sure many of the technology savys on here did a program search to find those statements and edit them in the archive..

" Hurricanes act as the A/C units of the Atlantic, bringing warm water up to the polar regions. "

TC's transport heat vertically but at a variety of latitudes and with a variety of ventilation. Air coming out of a TC could go back equatorward in an outflow channel, poleward, or whatever. The frontal boundaries are where heat is consistently transported poleward. This is old news.
Quoting 626. sar2401:

Assuming that somehow you could create an extremely dense ionospheric atmosphere, it would affect anything that uses radio frequencies, from cell phones, which are only line of sight from you to a tower, and then depends on microwave or satellite, and your internet connection nearly all of which depend on satellite for at least one hop. The whole thing sounds nuts anyway, but any country or entity that could control atmospheric density could cause us lots of problems with almost all our electronics.
Now you are sounding like a conspiracy theorist by stating known scientific facts that it is extremely possible to disable communications at will using old technology. It is not tin foil hat, it is old hat. Castro's brother could pull it off, if he wanted to. The Navy admitted it was a weather modification DEFENCE mechanism. Do they test it. No. Never.
Quoting 631. SLU:


Well at least he was right on the bust comment for sure. No subjectivity there.

That wasn't his message. It was a really bogus post.
Hey guys I do have to say in terms of major hurricanes it is very poor
Atlantic
Total depressions 12
Total storms 11
Hurricanes 2
Major hurricanes (Cat. 3 ) 0

E Pac
Total depressions 20
Total storms 19
Hurricanes 8
Major hurricanes (Cat. 3 ) 0
Yeah, OK, ya got me. I shot from the hip, instead of spending a half-hour writing a full and correct explanation that no-one would read. However, considering the statement to which I responded, I stand by my original comment, slightly modified: to a first approximation, and for all practical intents and purposes, neither cellphones nor Internet are in any major way dependent on the ionosphere.
Quoting 633. Civicane49:

There's the dreaded pinhole.
2013OCT21 021500 3.9 987.1 63.0 3.9 4.3 6.0 0.5T/hour OFF OFF -28.66 -72.42 EYE -99 IR N/A 15.81 101.91 SPRL GOES13 36.0
Quoting 625. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Raymond is now nearing Category 2 intensity.

EP, 17, 2013102100, , BEST, 0, 158N, 1019W, 80, 978, HU
I saw the eye close and then open at the top,and then start to close, but then I got assailed by Ionosphere Deniers. What are they teaching these kids nowadays? Are we still allowed to believe in the Van Allen Belt?
We have a Category 2.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAYMOND ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013

...RAYMOND CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 102.0W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES
Quoting 638. EstherD:
Yeah, OK, ya got me. I shot from the hip, instead of spending a half-hour writing a full and correct explanation that no-one would read. However, considering the statement to which I responded, I stand by my original comment, slightly modified: to a first approximation, and for all practical intents and purposes, neither cellphones nor Internet are in any major way dependent on the ionosphere.
You must have good service, because all I have to do is step next to a metal building, get near the beach,go inside, have a minor sunspot,wind over 10 knots, an Poof! Service not available. My cell phone is the canary model.
HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013

RAYMOND HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING AT AN ASTOUNDING RATE SINCE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE
PICTURES...AND WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO THE SMALL EYE HAS CLEARED
AND WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY. ALTHOUGH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AT
0000 UTC WERE 65 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AN EARLIER CIMSS AMSU
INTENSITY INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 74 KT. GIVEN THE MUCH
IMPROVED SATELLITE PRESENTATION SINCE EARLY THIS EVENING...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 85 KT...WHICH MIGHT BE CONSERVATIVE.
THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
NOW CALLS FOR RAYMOND TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 12
HOURS...AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE. LATER IN THE
FOREAST PERIOD...THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND IS LIKELY TO INITIATE
WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/5 KT. RAYMOND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS WHILE A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...AS THE TROUGH LIFTS
OUT...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...AND RAYMOND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY. THE PRIMARY
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND HOW
CLOSE RAYMOND WILL GET TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WHETHER LANDFALL WILL OCCUR. THE GFDL
AND HWRF MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE RAYMOND TO THE COAST WITHIN 48
HOURS....WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL
NORTHWARD MOTION. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN LIE IN BETWEEN AND
SO DOES THE NHC FORECAST. IT CANNOT BE STRESSED ENOUGH THAT ONLY A
SMALL NORTHWARD DEVIATION OF RAYMOND FROM THE NHC FOREAST WOULD
BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE VERY NEAR THE COAST. THE UPDATED
NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...HWRF...AND
GFS MODELS.

GIVEN THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...RECENT STRENGTHENING...AND POSSIBLE
EXPANSION OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THE
GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM TECPAN DE
GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 15.9N 102.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 16.3N 102.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 16.6N 101.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 16.8N 101.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 17.0N 101.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 16.7N 103.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 16.2N 105.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 16.0N 109.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
647. SLU
Could Raymond be the first MH in the EPAC?
I'm off to bed. Good night everybody!

I think we'll see a major hurricane in the EPac in the morning.

649. SLU
Correct me if I'm wrong, but this may be the first time that the NHC has issued a forecast with a storm maxing out at 125mph all year in both basins.

24H 22/0000Z 16.6N 101.9W 110 KT 125 MPH

Quoting 649. SLU:
Correct me if I'm wrong, but this may be the first time that the NHC has issued forecast with a storm maxing out at 125mph all year in both basins.

24H 22/0000Z 16.6N 101.9W 110 KT 125 MPH


You are correct. Raymond should become the first major hurricane of 2013.
Quoting 624. Birthmark:

Not concerning AGW. But I don't think it can be contested that this season is a "bust."
I'm just praying we get all the way out without a major landfall of any kind... Looking at the sat imagery it's pretty obvious that the October secondary peak is actually happening in the WPac... not the ATL. At this late stage in the game, I have 0 interest in doing hurricane preps for the 2013 season...
Quoting 651. BahaHurican:
I'm just praying we get all the way out without a major landfall of any kind... Looking at the sat imagery it's pretty obvious that the October secondary peak is actually happening in the WPac... not the ATL. At this late stage in the game, I have 0 interest in doing hurricane preps for the 2013 season...

I'm with you 100%.
I hope NHC changes the planned recon from Tuesday to Monday. I don't see them doing it but you never know if they decide to go 24 hours earlier than planned.


Off just a Tad.
@ 641. Pallis
"... but then I got assailed by Ionosphere Deniers. What are they teaching these kids nowadays? ..."

Not a kid, sweetie, but thanks for the compliment. And to paraphrase my father: "At my age, I've forgotten more about radio propagation and the physics of the ionosphere than most people are ever likely to know." Just sayin'

@ 645. Pallis
"You must have good service..."

Comes from livin' in the city... and knowing a lot about radio propagation. ;)


we can classify this year as Mexico's hurricane season
We should have 90L with the mid Atlantic disturbance.
24 hours ago:



Now:

Tricky forecast for Raymond:

Here is a very interesting fact:

Both times that the name "Raymond" has been used in the East Pacific (1983 and 1989), that hurricane became the strongest storm of the season.

This trend continues for the third time, as within twenty-four hours, Raymond 2013 has become the strongest storm of this year's East Pacific season.

In addition, BOTH previous storms named Raymond peaked at 145 mph... let's see what happens this year.
Quoting 658. Civicane49:
24 hours ago:



Now:


That's some insane RI.

Raymond dropped 25mbar in 12 hours (11am to 11pm).
Finally a decent hurricane to forecast that's not in the western Pacific (not that I dislike following or forecasting those, either):

Quoting Orcasystems:


Off just a Tad.

What didn't we all see that would cause problems?
Quoting 651. BahaHurican:
I'm just praying we get all the way out without a major landfall of any kind... Looking at the sat imagery it's pretty obvious that the October secondary peak is actually happening in the WPac... not the ATL. At this late stage in the game, I have 0 interest in doing hurricane preps for the 2013 season...


Heh. My Walmart is selling Christmas trees. A hurricane would send everyone into panic mode, a lot more than usual. :)
Quoting 666. KoritheMan:


Heh. My Walmart is selling Christmas trees. A hurricane would send everyone into panic mode, a lot more than usual. :)
I just wish they would keep selling fans until the summer is over in South Florida... lol

Too previous, that's all I can say...
It took 21 hours (8pm PDT 10-19 to 5pm PDT 10-20) for Raymond to intensify from a tropical depression to a hurricane. This is 3 hours short of [2007 Atlantic] Humberto's record as fastest to go from those two such categories.
Humberto started off as nothing. It was a deactivated invest.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #44
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON FRANCISCO (T1327)
12:00 PM JST October 21 2013
=====================================

Sea South Of Japan

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Francisco (940 hPa) located at 20.1N 136.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 6 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
240 NM from the center in north quadrant
210 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 22.3N 134.4E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) southeast of Minami Daito Island
45 HRS: 23.8N 131.7E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) south of Minami Daito Island
69 HRS: 25.1N 130.2E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Minami Daito Island waters
Quoting 669. sunlinepr:

Wow, a disturbance near the equator. I wonder what it would become. Maybe it could cross the equator and become a possible typhoon. (Disturbances can cross the equator, right?)

Wow, a disturbance near the equator. I wonder what it would become. Maybe it could cross the equator and become a possible typhoon. (Disturbances can cross the equator, right?)


TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD02F [1005HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 5.3S 171.5E AT 202100UTC MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS.
‏@wunderground 1m
Watching area near 26.5N 55.5W for tropical development [Invest 90L]: winds 30 mph moving NNW at 9 mph http://wxug.us/16pju #hurricane
Quoting 673. Bobbyweather:

Wow, a disturbance near the equator. I wonder what it would become. Maybe it could cross the equator and become a possible typhoon. (Disturbances can cross the equator, right?)


The other day Dr. Masters posted one that almost did...
Quoting 674. HadesGodWyvern:


TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD02F [1005HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 5.3S 171.5E AT 202100UTC MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS.

Oh it was already a TD.
yup, according to RSMC Nadi
Latest GFS isn't showing much of a front moving into C and S FL anymore. Will Need to watch for hybrid low forming in the Gulf by late week.
Quoting 666. KoritheMan:


Heh. My Walmart is selling Christmas trees. A hurricane would send everyone into panic mode, a lot more than usual. :)


My bank had Christmas decorations up on September 12.
Quoting 680. DonnieBwkGA:


My bank had Christmas decorations up on September 12.


Eww.
Quoting BahaHurican:
I'm just praying we get all the way out without a major landfall of any kind... Looking at the sat imagery it's pretty obvious that the October secondary peak is actually happening in the WPac... not the ATL. At this late stage in the game, I have 0 interest in doing hurricane preps for the 2013 season...


Don't you mean Hurricane Season 2014????

You are currently in Hurricane Season 2013.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Heh. My Walmart is selling Christmas trees. A hurricane would send everyone into panic mode, a lot more than usual. :)


Christmas decorations have been selling here since August. As we get closer to Christmas they will then have sales.
Quoting 622. FunnelVortex:


The government does a lousy job at everything.

But in all seriousness, people who blame the government for extreme weather, or lack there of, need to learn some actual meteorology.



Really, can you show me how they are lousy at everything? Have some respect buddy.

Yes it has its flaws, but in a free world, the government is only as good as its people, are culture is just as much to blame, if not more so.

The NWS is lousy, NASA is lousy, the military is lousy? Really?
Would the U.S. be where it is today if the government "does a lousy job at everything"?

Don't get caught up into political extremism, its stupid.

Quoting 663. KoritheMan:
Finally a decent hurricane to forecast that's not in the western Pacific (not that I dislike following or forecasting those, either):



Could be making a run for a major if the trend continues.
Still near 80 here at coast at 12:30am here at Bethune Beach. One of the warmest mid to late October here since 2009
I would love to know what is going on with Francisco. Convective dissonance between eyewall and bands?

Quoting 687. 1900hurricane:
I would love to know what is going on with Francisco. Convective dissonance between eyewall and bands?



"Convective dissonance"? :)
From my local NWS:

"PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ENTIRELY UNDER PARTIAL CLEARING AND LIGHT INLAND
WIND...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD NOR PROBLEMATIC FOR MOST EARLY MORNING
COMMUTES. THE PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ALLOW AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
VIEWING OF THE ORIONID METEORS LATE TONIGHT BUT BRING A JACKET AND
PREFERABLY A LAWN-CHAIR TO PREVENT A SORE-NECK."
Quoting 682. AussieStorm:


Don't you mean Hurricane Season 2014????

You are currently in Hurricane Season 2013.
Nah... I mean I don't want no November storms appearing out of nowhere... happens every now and then. 2014 is soon enough to start again.
Quoting 686. StormTrackerScott:
Still near 80 here at coast at 12:30am here at Bethune Beach. One of the warmest mid to late October here since 2009
We've 81 at our airport... amazing to be that warm in the last decade of October...
Quoting 688. KoritheMan:


"Convective dissonance"? :)

Possibly something I made up, but perhaps the bands are wrapped up in such a way that the low-level moisture flux is not able to make it to the eyewall, thus resulting in less vigorous eyewall updrafts and therefore producing warmer convection?
Halloween temps near 90 in Orlando based on 0Z GFS.
State of emergency for New South Wales west of Sydney.
Francisco is crossing the blue:

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
State of emergency for New South Wales west of Sydney.


New South Wales is under a State of Emergency

Sydney is the capital of NSW.

The state of emergency is because of the bushfires burning west of Sydney and on the Central Coast.
Quoting 695. AussieStorm:


New South Wales is under a State of Emergency

Sydney is the capital of NSW.

The state of emergency is because of the bushfires burning west of Sydney and on the Central Coast.
Yeah I just saw that on our local news here in Orlando. You stay safe Aussie
Quoting 692. StormTrackerScott:
Halloween temps near 90 in Orlando based on 0Z GFS.
Well I would think one or two things is going to happen, you're either going to get ridging which would favor tropical development down in the Western Caribbean or your going to get troughing along the East Coast that would bring cool and unsettled weather. I'm leaning to the former happening, based on MJO wave propagation and consistency with the GFS showing lowering pressures by the end of the month. Too early to tell how strong a system would be originating from the Caribbean and where exactly it would go.
Quoting 694. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Francisco is crossing the blue:


That might do it.
90L:

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA
HAS INCREASED AND HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. SATELLITE DATA ALSO SHOW THAT A SURFACE CIRCULATION IS
DEVELOPING. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A SHORT-LIVED
TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TUESDAY BEFORE THE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD...AND THEN TURNS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.
Yawn...


1. SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA
HAS INCREASED AND HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. SATELLITE DATA ALSO SHOW THAT A SURFACE CIRCULATION IS
DEVELOPING. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A SHORT-LIVED
TROPICAL CYCLONE
LATER TODAY OR TUESDAY BEFORE THE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD...AND THEN TURNS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.
2013OCT21 044500 5.0 967.6 90.0 5.0 5.2 6.1 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF -28.66 -72.73 EYE -99 IR 55.8 16.02 102.08

RSMC Miami ADT on Raymond

Initial Dvorak: T5.0

Raw T6.0
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAYMOND INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
1100 PM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013

...RAYMOND HESITATES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...ALMOST A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 102.2W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES
I'm personally liking the general idea of what the ECMWF is doing with Raymond.



Quoting 704. Civicane49:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAYMOND INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
1100 PM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013

...RAYMOND HESITATES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...ALMOST A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 102.2W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES

This has escalated uncomfortably quickly today.

65 knots in 24 hours.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Yeah I just saw that on our local news here in Orlando. You stay safe Aussie

Yeah I'm safe, just trying to cope with the smoke. I haven't heard from TropicalStormIsaac that comes on here. I know she lives in the Blue Mountains where these fires are located.
Raymond wants to continue the curse of cat 4.The past 2 Raymonds had become cat 4 I believe I mention this before in the hurricane wikia or here in wunderground.I am also hoping we at least get Lorenzo of 90L.
37 in North Wilkesboro, NC. Going to be closer to 27 later this week with mountain flakes to the west.

#brrrr
21/0545 UTC 16.0N 102.2W T5.5/5.5 RAYMOND
AL, 90, 2013102106, , BEST, 0, 270N, 560W, 25, 1012, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 150, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
Typhoon Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LEKIMA (T1328)
15:00 PM JST October 21 2013
=====================================

Near Marshall Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Lekima (990 hPa) located at 12.2N 160.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 6 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===================
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 15.0N 157.0E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Marshall Island
48 HRS: 18.0N 151.7E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) south southwest of Minami torishima
72 HRS: 20.1N 147.1E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Ogasawara waters

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #45
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON FRANCISCO (T1327)
15:00 PM JST October 21 2013
=====================================

Southeast of Minami Daito Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Francisco (940 hPa) located at 20.3N 135.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 6 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
240 NM from the center in north quadrant
210 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 22.5N 134.0E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) southeast of Minami Daito Island
48 HRS: 24.0N 131.0E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) south of Minami Daito Island
72 HRS: 25.5N 129.8E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Minami Daito Island waters
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST October 21 2013
=====================================

A well marked low pressure area has formed over southwest Bay of Bengal off northern Tamil Nadu - southern Andhra Pradesh coasts.
Lekima.




Eye feature now visible. JTWC still has it at 45 knots while the JMA bumped it up to a STS (Severe Tropical Storm) with 10-min 50 knot winds with a pressure of 990 mbar. Expect a typhoon tomorrow.

Francisco.


New eye is looking more pronounced. Although both the JTWC and JMA are not expecting it to re-intensify.

Doesn't look too good for the Tokyo Metro area.
Quoting 689. TropicalAnalystwx13:
From my local NWS:

"PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ENTIRELY UNDER PARTIAL CLEARING AND LIGHT INLAND
WIND...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD NOR PROBLEMATIC FOR MOST EARLY MORNING
COMMUTES. THE PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ALLOW AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
VIEWING OF THE ORIONID METEORS LATE TONIGHT BUT BRING A JACKET AND
PREFERABLY A LAWN-CHAIR TO PREVENT A SORE-NECK."

Stayed up much too late tonight in hopes of catching at least one Orionid. Moon too bright for the dim ones. Thought I might get lucky and see a fireball that was bright enough to cut through the glare. No joy. Then the partly cloudy started rolling in from the west. Stayed until it covered the radiant, then gave it up as a bad job. Maybe next year...
90L:

EPAC finally has a major hurricane.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAYMOND ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 AM PDT MON OCT 21 2013

...RAYMOND STALLS SOUTH OF MEXICO WITH 120 MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 102.2W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES
HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 AM PDT MON OCT 21 2013

RAYMOND CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW A CIRCULAR AND DISTINCT EYE WITH A SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE
PATTERN SURROUNDING THE CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT
105 KT...FOLLOWING THE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND
UW-CIMSS ADT. THIS MAKES RAYMOND A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...THE FIRST
MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC 2013 SEASON. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THIS CYCLONE HAS EXHIBITED AN IMPRESSIVE
PERIOD OF STRENGTHENING...AS IT WAS ONLY A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM
AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.

THE HURRICANE HAS COME TO A HALT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS ABOUT 100
N MI SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE STEERING CURRENTS HAVE
COLLAPSED WITH A TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF RAYMOND AND A RIDGE
TO THE NORTHWEST. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO STAY WITHIN THESE
WEAK CURRENTS FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...THEREFORE...LITTLE MOTION IS
EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. BY LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE
CURRENTLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF RAYMOND IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME THE
MORE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE...FORCING RAYMOND TO MOVE WESTWARD
OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE LATEST
GLOBAL MODEL RUNS SHOW A TRACK FARTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER...KEEPING
THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. IN
FACT...GUIDANCE NO LONGER BRINGS THE HURRICANE INLAND AND IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES THE WARNINGS FOR MEXICO COULD BE ALTERED.

RAYMOND COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE TODAY AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM
INTENSITY CHANGES WILL LIKELY BE PRIMARILY CONTROLLED BY EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLES AND INTERNAL DYNAMICS. SLOW WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AS INDICATED BY MUCH OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE HURRICANE
AND HOW CLOSE IT GETS TO THE COAST...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...CAUSING
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 16.0N 102.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 16.3N 102.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 16.5N 102.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 16.5N 102.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 16.4N 102.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 16.0N 104.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 15.7N 106.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 15.5N 110.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA
Link

Scattered thunderstorms over the Western Caribbean. Nothing organized right now, but I expect a tropical storm to develop in the Western Caribbean in the next 10-12 days. The 18Z GFS from yesterday showed a strong low over the NW Caribbean with winds of 35 knots around Halloween.

The 0z GFS for this morning shows a tropical storm in the NW Caribbean just after Halloween by November 1st. The remnants of the strong cold front expected to move into the Gulf in conjunction with an area of moisture coming in from the SW (a tropical wave that is currently over the central Atlantic) seem to be the triggers on the GFS model for this potential system. Remember in 2009, as inactive as that year was, we still had Hurricane Ida in the Caribbean in November. A niche of low shear should be present once the tropical wave reaches the West Caribbean.

Like with most Caribbean storms, I expect the system to get caught in weak steering between a weak westerly propagating tropical wave producing westward steering and a cold front in the GOM producing easterly steering. This collapse of steering should favor ample time for intensification.

Chance of Tropical Storm: 90%
Chance of Hurricane: 80%
Chance of Major Hurricane: 60%

***NOT OFFICIAL***
Good Morning folks!..............
Atl side now has an Invest..for the fish though....
currently not expected to head eastward into mexico..
Wow! What happened to Raymond last night? I left it being a 75 mph hurricane and now it's a 120 mph hurricane! Talk about rapid intensification!


Good morning everybody!

As expected, Raymond continued to rapidly intensify and became a major hurricane over night.


Atlantic is up to its old antics and 90L could end up becoming another weak, forgettable tropical storm.
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's pretty much 53 across the board again. We seem to like to keep our temperature, wind chill/heat index, dew point and humidity all the same.

Raymond appeared out of no where to me, guess I should have been checking in yesterday, but it was a busy day. Last I saw it was just an invest...


Breakfast's on the sideboard: steak, eggs and hash browns, bacon and egg grilled cheese, Raspberry oatmeal breakfast cake, broccoli & cheddar omelet, Cheesecake Burritos with strawberry topping, Boston Cream Pie Pancakes, cheesy grits and shrimp, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
731. SLU
Quoting 701. KoritheMan:
Yawn...


1. SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA
HAS INCREASED AND HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. SATELLITE DATA ALSO SHOW THAT A SURFACE CIRCULATION IS
DEVELOPING. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A SHORT-LIVED
TROPICAL CYCLONE
LATER TODAY OR TUESDAY BEFORE THE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD...AND THEN TURNS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.


This should easily add a whooping 0.5 units to the ACE. Something is better than nothing I guess ...
732. SLU
Probably a TS by now.

733. VR46L
Quoting 722. GrandCaymanMed:
Link

Scattered thunderstorms over the Western Caribbean. Nothing organized right now, but I expect a tropical storm to develop in the Western Caribbean in the next 10-12 days. The 18Z GFS from yesterday showed a strong low over the NW Caribbean with winds of 35 knots around Halloween.

The 0z GFS for this morning shows a tropical storm in the NW Caribbean just after Halloween by November 1st. The remnants of the strong cold front expected to move into the Gulf in conjunction with an area of moisture coming in from the SW (a tropical wave that is currently over the central Atlantic) seem to be the triggers on the GFS model for this potential system. Remember in 2009, as inactive as that year was, we still had Hurricane Ida in the Caribbean in November. A niche of low shear should be present once the tropical wave reaches the West Caribbean.

Like with most Caribbean storms, I expect the system to get caught in weak steering between a weak westerly propagating tropical wave producing westward steering and a cold front in the GOM producing easterly steering. This collapse of steering should favor ample time for intensification.

Chance of Tropical Storm: 90%
Chance of Hurricane: 80%
Chance of Major Hurricane: 60%

***NOT OFFICIAL***


Plussed because it gave me a laugh !
This season nothing seems to be ever going to occur

Morning Folks !
734. beell
Raymond may have peaked. Slow to stationary forward speed leading to upwelling and perhaps a bit of dry air beginning to wrap in from the west. Taking on a bit of a lop-sided appearance this morning. Shear may not be an issue yet but it is not too far away to the NW.


But still, 65 knots in 24 hrs. Scary.

Quoting 722. GrandCaymanMed:
Link

Scattered thunderstorms over the Western Caribbean. Nothing organized right now, but I expect a tropical storm to develop in the Western Caribbean in the next 10-12 days. The 18Z GFS from yesterday showed a strong low over the NW Caribbean with winds of 35 knots around Halloween.

The 0z GFS for this morning shows a tropical storm in the NW Caribbean just after Halloween by November 1st. The remnants of the strong cold front expected to move into the Gulf in conjunction with an area of moisture coming in from the SW (a tropical wave that is currently over the central Atlantic) seem to be the triggers on the GFS model for this potential system. Remember in 2009, as inactive as that year was, we still had Hurricane Ida in the Caribbean in November. A niche of low shear should be present once the tropical wave reaches the West Caribbean.

Like with most Caribbean storms, I expect the system to get caught in weak steering between a weak westerly propagating tropical wave producing westward steering and a cold front in the GOM producing easterly steering. This collapse of steering should favor ample time for intensification.

Chance of Tropical Storm: 90%
Chance of Hurricane: 80%
Chance of Major Hurricane: 60%

***NOT OFFICIAL***


90L might become our next Alantic fish storm!

It would not be surprising for a T.S. or strong hurricane to form in the NW Carribbean. Although the 2013 season has been slower than recent years, that area has been a hot spot for October-November hurricanes, including Paloma (2008), Ida (2009), Paula and Richard (2010), Rina (2011), and Superstorm Sandy (2012).

As Hurricane Ida (Nov 2009) approached the central US Gulf Coast, it was still a hurricane when it was located just offshore of the southeast tip of Louisiana. Gale force winds occurred along the coast from Louisiana to Florida, and a hurricane force wind gust of 75MPH was recorded at the mouth of the Mississippi River. Hurricane Ida did occur during a slower El Nino year.

VERY interesting forecast, and believable! Late season hurricanes are SO interesting to observe and track!
Quoting 733. VR46L:


Plussed because it gave me a ROFL moment !

Morning Folks !


Thank you. Laughs are very healthy :D
I will confess I went out on a huge limb though. But that's the challenge in forecasting.

Quoting 735. Stormwatch247:


90L might become our next Alantic fish storm!

It would not be surprising for a T.S. or strong hurricane to form in the NW Carribbean. Although the 2013 season has been slower than recent years, that area has been a hot spot for October-November hurricanes, including Paloma (2008), Ida (2009), Paula and Richard (2010), Rina (2011), and Superstorm Sandy (2012).

As Hurricane Ida (Nov 2009) approached the central US Gulf Coast, it was still a hurricane when it was located just offshore of the southeast tip of Louisiana. Gale force winds occurred along the coast from Louisiana to Florida, and a hurricane force wind gust of 75MPH was recorded at the mouth of the Mississippi River. Hurricane Ida did occur during a slower El Nino year.

VERY interesting forecast, and believable! Late season hurricanes are SO interesting to observe and track!


Agree 100%. The NW Caribbean is a hotbed for late season storms. It ain't over till it's over...
Quoting 637. wunderkidcayman:
Hey guys I do have to say in terms of major hurricanes it is very poor
Atlantic
Total depressions 12
Total storms 11
Hurricanes 2
Major hurricanes (Cat. 3 )
E Pac
Total depressions 20
Total storms 19
Hurricanes 8
Major hurricanes (Cat. 3 ) 1


We had to edit that.
738. VR46L
Quoting 736. GrandCaymanMed:


Thank you. Laughs are very healthy :D
I will confess I went out on a huge limb though. But that's the challenge in forecasting.



Agree 100%. The NW Caribbean is a hotbed for late season storms. It ain't over till it's over...


Its Just this season has been so uneventful , I find it hard to muster any enthusiasm for the next 6 weeks!
90L up to 60%.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE
LATER TODAY OR TUESDAY BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND THEN TURNS EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAYMOND INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
500 AM PDT MON OCT 21 2013

...MAJOR HURRICANE RAYMOND DRIFTING NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 102.3W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES...AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES
Who cares about Francisco. Who cares about Raymond. Seriously?
Quoting 738. VR46L:


Its Just this season has been so uneventful , I find it hard to muster any enthusiasm for the next 6 weeks!

It's over.
Global Warming, Global Schwarming.



I'm holing out for 4 more storms, but know it doesn't look too likely.

Morning/Evening.
LOL Jeff. So the Atlantic has been pretty non-eventful all year so you use the Pacific storms (which you never EVER talk about by the way) to pound at your AGW agenda. And you title it so pretty. 3 category 5 storms. OMG Jeff!!!!

Ah, Jeff......
Quoting 745. HardTimesHenry:

No ones cares about Raymond.
I personally don't.But I guess it's something to talk about.Maybe 2014 will be the season of the Atlantic's revenge.That's if a El nino doesn't form.
I see 90L is up to 60% chance of becoming a TS in the next 48 hours
Quoting 742. HardTimesHenry:
Who cares about Francisco. Who cares about Raymond. Seriously?


People who like to follow storms do care - not to mention people living on Japan's eastern seacoast, or Mexico's western...

Anyway, I can guarantee you no one cares about your continuous spamming one-line posts, or boldly predicting the season is OVER..
Quoting 749. FtMyersgal:
I see 90L is up to 60% chance of becoming a TS in the next 48 hours
I would post the "That escalated quickly meme" but I'm not sure if it's allowed anymore..
Quoting 745. HardTimesHenry:

No ones cares about Raymond.


Man, you are bringing some positivity to the blog this morning.
753. ARiot
Quoting 5. ricderr:
The japanese have got to be wondering why they've become the worlds number one target for natural dissasters.....on a birghter note...one of our own..."spetrm" is a weather forecaster for a japanese news station...he's got to be at least a little excited


Their culture is full of disaster stories, like most older societies, but their modern culture is overloaded with that kind of stuff -- Godzilla (perils of technology) to Final Fantasy (a popular video game with themes surrounding disasterous corruption of the natural world).

Everybody loves raymond!

"The Atlantic Season behaved like an El Niño year, yet all data suggest that water temperatures over much of the tropical Pacific were near average, suggesting a neutral pattern."

This is a excerpt from Accuweather regarding the Atlantic...

BTW highs starting Thursday will be in the upper 40's to lower 50's across the region.Bring it on!.
Does anyone know if Raymond is the latest in date (October 21) to become a major in EPAC?
HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 AM PDT MON OCT 21 2013

RAYMOND CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW A CIRCULAR AND DISTINCT EYE WITH A SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE
PATTERN SURROUNDING THE CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT
105 KT...FOLLOWING THE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND
UW-CIMSS ADT. THIS MAKES RAYMOND A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...THE FIRST
MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC 2013 SEASON. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THIS CYCLONE HAS EXHIBITED AN IMPRESSIVE
PERIOD OF STRENGTHENING...AS IT WAS ONLY A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM
AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.

THE HURRICANE HAS COME TO A HALT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS ABOUT 100
N MI SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE STEERING CURRENTS HAVE
COLLAPSED WITH A TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF RAYMOND AND A RIDGE
TO THE NORTHWEST. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO STAY WITHIN THESE
WEAK CURRENTS FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...THEREFORE...LITTLE MOTION IS
EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. BY LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE
CURRENTLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF RAYMOND IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME THE
MORE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE...FORCING RAYMOND TO MOVE WESTWARD
OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE LATEST
GLOBAL MODEL RUNS SHOW A TRACK FARTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER...KEEPING
THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. IN
FACT...GUIDANCE NO LONGER BRINGS THE HURRICANE INLAND AND IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES THE WARNINGS FOR MEXICO COULD BE ALTERED.

RAYMOND COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE TODAY AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM
INTENSITY CHANGES WILL LIKELY BE PRIMARILY CONTROLLED BY EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLES AND INTERNAL DYNAMICS. SLOW WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AS INDICATED BY MUCH OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE HURRICANE
AND HOW CLOSE IT GETS TO THE COAST...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...CAUSING
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 16.0N 102.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 16.3N 102.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 16.5N 102.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 16.5N 102.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 16.4N 102.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 16.0N 104.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 15.7N 106.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 15.5N 110.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

Raymond has been fantastic to watch over the last 24 hours. The increase in wind speed by 70mph in one days time is rare. 90L is looking like it's well on it's way to named status later this morning. Good looking little fishy.
Quoting 755. washingtonian115:
"The Atlantic Season behaved like an El Niño year, yet all data suggest that water temperatures over much of the tropical Pacific were near average, suggesting a neutral pattern."

This is a excerpt from Accuweather regarding the Atlantic...

BTW highs starting Thursday will be in the upper 40's to lower 50's across the region.Bring it on!.


I guess that is why is a neutral year, it can either be an active or lame year.
interesting AOI near 10N 28W. Ihas some spin
Quoting 757. iloveweather15:
HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 AM PDT MON OCT 21 2013

RAYMOND CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW A CIRCULAR AND DISTINCT EYE WITH A SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE
PATTERN SURROUNDING THE CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT
105 KT...FOLLOWING THE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND
UW-CIMSS ADT. THIS MAKES RAYMOND A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...THE FIRST
MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC 2013 SEASON. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THIS CYCLONE HAS EXHIBITED AN IMPRESSIVE
PERIOD OF STRENGTHENING...AS IT WAS ONLY A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM
AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.

THE HURRICANE HAS COME TO A HALT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS ABOUT 100
N MI SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE STEERING CURRENTS HAVE
COLLAPSED WITH A TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF RAYMOND AND A RIDGE
TO THE NORTHWEST. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO STAY WITHIN THESE
WEAK CURRENTS FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...THEREFORE...LITTLE MOTION IS
EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. BY LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE
CURRENTLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF RAYMOND IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME THE
MORE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE...FORCING RAYMOND TO MOVE WESTWARD
OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE LATEST
GLOBAL MODEL RUNS SHOW A TRACK FARTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER...KEEPING
THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. IN
FACT...GUIDANCE NO LONGER BRINGS THE HURRICANE INLAND AND IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES THE WARNINGS FOR MEXICO COULD BE ALTERED.

RAYMOND COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE TODAY AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM
INTENSITY CHANGES WILL LIKELY BE PRIMARILY CONTROLLED BY EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLES AND INTERNAL DYNAMICS. SLOW WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AS INDICATED BY MUCH OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE HURRICANE
AND HOW CLOSE IT GETS TO THE COAST...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...CAUSING
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 16.0N 102.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 16.3N 102.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 16.5N 102.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 16.5N 102.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 16.4N 102.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 16.0N 104.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 15.7N 106.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 15.5N 110.0W 70 KT 80 MPH




wow winds over 120 mph!
12z Best Track for Raymond.

EP, 17, 2013102112, , BEST, 0, 162N, 1023W, 105, 954, HU
Quoting 760. stoormfury:
interesting AOI near 10N 28W. Ihas some spin


yep
Atlantic Satellite...

765. VR46L
Quoting 743. HardTimesHenry:

It's over.


Hmm I guess it aint over till its over

But with 90L showing some teeth Its not completely over.....



767. VR46L
Quoting 754. FunnelVortex:
Everybody loves raymond!



I found that show one of the least funny comedies ever ...

But this is a cool fish (hopefully)

they keep on blaring warnings here..cold front coming..where?....
Perhaps the tail ends of these fronts May..start up something...
Oh my gosh that was a huge turn around
HIGH
Lorenzo here he comes
000
ABNT20 KNHC 211137
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 21 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE
LATER TODAY OR TUESDAY BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND THEN TURNS EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BRENNAN

Good Morning.

The story of 2013 continues.........Another E-Pac system late in their season and NHC finally keeping it real in the discussion: A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY

Don't need to hear all the comments later about a "waste" of name; if it meets the criteria, it gets the name for 4 hours................
Area forecast discussion for the Florida Keys
National Weather Service Key West Florida
353 am EDT Monday Oct 21 2013

Discussion...

currently...
only a few very light showers are crossing the Keys area at this hour
under mostly clear skies and light and variable winds. From satellite
we see the cold Arctic air diving through the intermountain west
behind the parent low over south central Canada and the western Great
Lakes. The remains of a weak trough extend from the Delaware-Maryland-Virginia
peninsula...southwest across the northern Gulf of Mexico...and out
over Mexico...merging with east Pacific Tropical Storm Raymond.

Short term

(today through Tuesday night)...
no changes made or expected in the near term forecast with periods of
brief surging winds becoming gentle to moderate during the nocturnal
cycle the next few nights. The lower troposphere will remain quite
moist through Tuesday night while the vertical wind profile indicates
a propensity for island cloud line formation. This would also promote
an higher potential for waterspouts developing underneath cloud lines
with flat dark bases. Will address this possibility in the hazardous
weather outlook.

&&

Long term

(wednesday through sunday)...
the strong upper low over the western Great Lakes will traverse
southern Canada Wednesday dropping a trough trough the eastern United
States. Several short wave disturbances will follow through early
Thursday as the polar and subtropical jets phase near the coastal
Carolinas. Most of this energy will not make it through the Keys
forecast area...but will hang up over the Keys Thursday through
Saturday night. A strong surface ridge will build in over the deep
south which will substantially increase winds across the Keys early
Thursday...with the ridge waning slightly Thursday afternoon...then
re-intensifying Thursday night. Expecting breezy northeast winds Friday
through the weekend. Rain chances are the one factor in question and
will keep chance showers and thunderstorms...but make this the higher
end of the chance range at 50 percent Thursday and Friday due to the
lingering boundary.
While we were all paying attention to the pacific the Atlantic gave us a little surprise.What if 90L pulls a Micheal?
Quoting 756. Tropicsweatherpr:
Does anyone know if Raymond is the latest in date (October 21) to become a major in EPAC?


I'm relatively sure that Kenneth in 2011 became a category 4 in November.
invest 90L!
Quoting 764. GeoffreyWPB:
Atlantic Satellite...

Besides 90L the Atlantic is practically dead..
Excerpt from Miami NWS Disco...

MODELS STILL DEPICT A COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND INCREASE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE QUESTION REMAINS WHETHER A DEEP
MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE SOUTH WILL OVERRUN THE FRONT AND TO WHAT
EXTENT. THE GFS KEEPS A MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SECONDARY REINFORCING FRONT SHOVING THE MOISTURE SOUTH AND
OUT OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS
DEPICTING MORE OF A CLEAN FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A GOOD SURGE OF DRY
AIR FUNNELING INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

EITHER WAY IT APPEARS AS THOUGH A DRY PATTERN WILL THEN ENSUE LATE
NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK WITH CONTINUED NORTHEAST
FLOW AND MORE MILD TEMPERATURES.

For West Palm Beach...

The other area SW of the AOI is also spinning around....Looks like "Dueling Banjos" out there at the moment...........
Quoting 779. weathermanwannabe:
The other area SW of the AOI is also spinning around....Looks like "Dueling Banjos" out there at the moment...........
I think at some point,I think two weeks ago,the GFS was showing multiple storms.
781. VR46L
Quoting 774. washingtonian115:
While we were all paying attention to the pacific the Atlantic gave us a little surprise.What if 90L pulls a Micheal?


Its cute looking but I doubt a Michael ... Front is going to take the fun away ..

Quoting 774. washingtonian115:
While we were all paying attention to the pacific the Atlantic gave us a little surprise.What if 90L pulls a Micheal?

I hope it does we need a number under the major hurricanes and it's best if a major hurricane was one out to see so it don't kill nobody but a few fish
Quoting 780. Andrebrooks:
I think at some point,I think two weeks ago,the GFS was showing multiple storms.


Interesting to note that they are both located in the only area in the Central Atlantic where sheer is relatively low (Link).

They are too far north/cooler waters for any significant development and surrounded by hostile sheer all around............ "Short lived" is a good summary given those overall synoptic conditions.
Quoting 774. washingtonian115:
While we were all paying attention to the pacific the Atlantic gave us a little surprise.What if 90L pulls a Micheal?
It would be some fun, it actually looks pretty good right, it should be a storm now.Or at least a depression.
90L = FISH ENTERTAINMENT. TO BE FORGOTTEN;
787. VR46L
Quoting 783. wunderkidcayman:

I hope it does we need a number under the major hurricanes and it's best if a major hurricane was one out to see so it don't kill nobody but a few fish


What about the Mermaids ?
Raymond
Quoting 786. CaribBoy:
90L = FISH ENTERTAINMENT. TO BE FORGOTTEN;
Really.
Quoting 786. CaribBoy:
90L = FISH ENTERTAINMENT. TO BE FORGOTTEN;

Umm Hurricane Michael was a fish and people still remember it
Quoting 789. Andrebrooks:
Really.

Lol
The only reason he says that is because he don't got no hurricane that gonna be on to of him lol
Thanks Dr. Masters for being a leader in the world of concern for life. I find it amazing that people who deny AGW also are unwilling to devote any significant resources to cleaning up our water, cleaning up our air, finding ways to live that support homeostasis of our planet, or reducing waste. All of these things are obvious to anybody with a brain. Doing that will help the planet in myriad ways while also helping to slow AGW. Everything we can imagine benefits from doing that! Am I the only one that thinks that AGW denying is just a red herring, following a politically motivated issue instead of saying the truth, which is: "I don't care?"
GOOD MORNING!

Not sure if this is a severe weather threat shaping place but it will be some heavy rain for the southern states at least..

00z GFS didnt show this scenario but the 06z GFS did while the 00z CMC shows it as well-240 hours





JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 790. wunderkidcayman:

Umm Hurricane Michael was a fish and people still remember it
Yep. A rather interesting surprise becoming a major. It was forecast never to become a hurricane..I think...Another reason that people may remember it is I do not believe there has ever been a Hurricane Michael in the Atlantic...Maybe never anywhere..
Quoting 797. hydrus:
Yep. A rather interesting surprise becoming a major. It was forecast never to become a hurricane..I think...Another reason that people may remember it is I do not believe there has ever been a Hurricane Michael in the Atlantic...Maybe never anywhere..

There was a Hurricane Michael in 2001.
799. txjac
Quoting 767. VR46L:


I found that show one of the least funny comedies ever ...

But this is a cool fish (hopefully)



Come on now ...you have to at least love Robert? He was funny to me ...especially the episode when he "thought" he was black and dating Judy ...lol. My daughter never liked it either ...didnt think it was funny ...however she liked Marie!