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Intriguing Tipping Points TV Series Begins Airing Saturday at 9pm EDT

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:09 PM GMT on October 18, 2013

How does one tell the most important story of our time--the emergence of our great Climate Disruption--without boring one's audience to tears, but at the same time, not resorting to over-hyped spinning of the science? “Tipping Points”, a landmark 6-part TV series that begins airing at 9 pm EDT Saturday, October 19 on The Weather Channel, aims to do just that. "Tipping Points" follows a group of preeminent scientists as they venture off the grid to explore the perilous tipping points making our weather systems more extreme and unpredictable.

The phenomena of “tipping points” follows the concept that, at a particular moment in time, a small change can have a large, long-term consequence on a fragile climate system already in a state of flux. Localized ecological systems are known to shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another when they are forced across critical thresholds. Further, when the situation is pushed past the “tipping point,” it will potentially lead to a chain reaction, putting other ecosystems around the globe in peril. “Tipping Points” will feature several of the most critical examples, including the collapse of the Greenland ice sheet, total melting of the Himalayan icecap glaciers, die-back of the Amazon rainforest, shutdown of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation, and the rapid melt of the permafrost in Siberia. "Tipping Points" will not only show how climate changes affect local communities in exotic and distant locales like the Amazon or Siberia, but how it impacts and is relevant to people from Australia and Asia to Europe, South America to Canada and every community in between. The series explores what is happening at the most dramatic tipping points and looks to find answers to understand what can be done to stem the tide of change before we do irreparable damage, and ultimately put our own lives at risk.



The series is hosted by polar explorer and climate journalist Bernice Notenboom, the first woman to climb Mt. Everest and walk to the North and South Poles. She is joined by a number of leading international environmental scientists in each episode, such as Dr. Jason Box, Dr. Matthew England, Professor Peter Cox, and more. In each episode, Notenboom heads off to a far corner of the world to find scientists in the field undertaking vital climate research to try to understand how the climate system is changing and how long we have to make significant changes before we reach a tipping point--a point of no return when our climate system will be changed irreversibly.



The first episode at 9 pm EDT/8 pm CDT this Saturday will be "Amazon Rainforest Risks". "Tipping Points" host Bernice Notenboom will join Peter Cox, Professor of Climate System Dynamics at the University of Exeter, on an expedition across the vast Amazon Rainforest to explore the mega droughts and tree deaths occurring that threaten the forest's survival this century. The Amazon stores CO2 in its soils and biomass equivalent to about fifteen years of human-caused emissions, so a massive die-back of the forest could greatly accelerate global warming. Photosynthesis in the world's largest rainforest keeps the Earth cooler by taking about 2 billion tons of carbon dioxide out of the air each year. However, exceptional droughts in both 2005 and 2010 reversed this process. The Amazon emitted 3 billion tons of CO2 to the atmosphere in 2005, causing a net 5 billion ton increase in CO2 to the atmosphere--roughly equivalent to 19% of the total CO2 emissions to the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels that year. A 2013 NASA-led study found that an area of the Amazon rainforest twice the size of California continues to suffer from the effects of the 2005 mega drought. A 2008 paper by Professor Cox warned that their climate model predicted a rapidly increasing risk of 2005-like droughts from 1-in-20 years in the present climate to 1-in-2 years by 2025, if we continue emitting CO2 at our current "business-as-usual" pace. A 2013 study by Fu et al. found that the dry season length has grown by about seven days per decade in the southern part of the rainforest. If this trend continues in coming decades at half of that rate, the fire season that contributed to the 2005 drought would become the new norm by the late 21st century. The leader of the study, Rong Fu, explained: "The dry season over the southern Amazon is already a marginal for maintaining rainforest. At some point, if it becomes too long, the rainforest will reach a tipping point."



Typhoon Francisco headed towards Japan
Category 4 Typhoon Francisco continues to intensify over the warm waters of the Western Pacific about 200 miles west of Guam. Even though the eye of Francisco passed more than 150 miles west of Guam Friday morning, the huge storm brought sustained winds of 37 mph, gusting to 46 mph, to the island, along with 6.75" of rain. Satellite loops show that Francisco is well-organized with an impressive area of heavy thunderstorms and a prominent eye. With warm waters that extend to great depth and low wind shear, continued strengthening is likely, and Francisco is forecast to become a super typhoon with 150 mph winds by Saturday as it heads northwest towards Japan. The European model now shows that Francisco will miss Japan, but the GFS model predicts that Francisco will hit Japan on Thursday next week. There is very high uncertainty in the storm's track that far into the future, since the timing of Francisco's turn the northeast is difficult to predict.

The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 500. skycycle:
Does anyone from the East Coast or Europe plan to take photos of the moon eclipse later tonight?

On another note, Francisco has now apparently reached Super Typhoon Status, looks set to bring more misery and devastation to Japan, where 24 are now confirmed dead and 26 missing from Wipha, most of them in the island of Oshima :/
I have seen so many, there not exiting to me anymore. We here in Mid TN will be in for a total solar eclipse in August 2017. I have only seen partial solar eclipse, and am truly exited to see this event.
503. VR46L
Quoting 500. skycycle:
Does anyone from the East Coast or Europe plan to take photos of the moon eclipse later tonight?

On another note, Francisco has now apparently reached Super Typhoon Status, looks set to bring more misery and devastation to Japan, where 24 are now confirmed dead and 26 missing from Wipha, most of them in the island of Oshima :/


NO chance... weather not cooperating

Quoting 496. Patrap:
Vostok, Antarctica wu page
2:50 AM VOST on October 19, 2013 (GMT +0600)Elev: 11220 ft Lon: 106.9° ELat: 78.4° S


Temperature
-60 °F
Feels Like -60 °F
.No way...u puttin us on...now i need Fresca..
Quoting 500. skycycle:
Does anyone from the East Coast or Europe plan to take photos of the moon eclipse later tonight?

On another note, Francisco has now apparently reached Super Typhoon Status, looks set to bring more misery and devastation to Japan, where 24 are now confirmed dead and 26 missing from Wipha, most of them in the island of Oshima :/


I plan to. Great viewing conditions around here. Do you know what time it peaks?
Quoting 500. skycycle:
Does anyone from the East Coast or Europe plan to take photos of the moon eclipse later tonight?

On another note, Francisco has now apparently reached Super Typhoon Status, looks set to bring more misery and devastation to Japan, where 24 are now confirmed dead and 26 missing from Wipha, most of them in the island of Oshima :/
I am actually scared for those people and I know not one person there...I pray that storm misses.
Quoting 442. ncstorm:


Now Nea, for the first time I will say you are absolutely right but the flag system doesnt seem to be working as comments are still visible and not removed..
Mine have been going...

Sounds like the blog is glitchy this afternoon....

Hey, ever'body... it's FRIDAY!!!! WhooHoo!!!!

lol...

Glad to be able to sit back with a drink and relax a bit...

Quoting 502. hydrus:
I have seen so many, there not exiting to me anymore. We here in Mid TN will be in for a total solar eclipse in August 2017. I have only seen partial solar eclipse, and am truly exited to see this event.


Was lucky enough to see the 1999 total solar eclipse in one of the best locations for it, on the Black Sea coast in my beloved homeland of Bulgaria - the greatest eclipse point was in Southeastern Romania, at 2 min 22 sec, I saw it from Golden Sands in Bulgaria, for 2+ minutes :) Was 12 at the time, yet it is something I will never forget - and last I checked the upcoming eclipses for Europe in the 21st century - something that I might not see again on this continent :)


Facts I've learned from this blog:

J. Masters is pro-GW... Can't understand why there is fight on the subject between bloggers, after any post he makes.... Why not present any denialyst facts or complaints to J. Masters?

As a meterorological scientist he has no problems with the Weather Channel....
Some bloggers here do...

Amen
Quoting 442. ncstorm:


Now Nea, for the first time I will say you are absolutely right but the flag system doesnt seem to be working as comments are still visible and not removed..



It takes 10(I believe its 10)flags on a post to remove it..until that number is reached it will still be visible to everyone(even the bloggers who flagged it)
.."its only words, and words are all I have, to take your Heart away"..

Viz coming up on Fnansisco, a Powerlful Typhoon heading toward Okinawa in the West Pacific

Quoting 508. skycycle:


Was lucky enough to see the 1999 total solar eclipse in one of the best locations for it, on the Black Sea coast in my beloved homeland of Bulgaria - the greatest eclipse point was in Southeastern Romania, at 2 min 22 sec, I saw it from Golden Sands in Bulgaria, for 2+ minutes :) Was 12 at the time, yet it is something I will never forget - and last I checked the upcoming eclipses for Europe in the 21st century - something that I might not see again on this continent :)
I believe they said 2 minutes and 12 seconds for us...Here at me house.!..All I will have to do is put my favorite chair on the porch..:)
Quoting 495. nwobilderburg:
Link

Found this online... thought u guys would like it


ROFL!
The sea surface temperature ahead of Francisco is below normal. From Wipha upwelling? Whether that's the reason or not it may help limit Francisco's strength.

I posted a new blog and want to know what y'all think about what you see there.

Quoting 505. Hurricane614:


I plan to. Great viewing conditions around here. Do you know what time it peaks?


spaceweather.com said it was 7:30 PM EDT
TCHP Loop

Quoting 503. VR46L:


NO chance... weather not cooperating



France may have a shot. It's just a penumbral eclipse though. Not total. So it won't be as spectacular. Next total lunar eclipse is in April next year I think.
Quoting 511. Patrap:
.."its only words, and words are all I have, to take your Heart away"..

That is an amazing display of natures power..I never second guessed why I am fascinated by the Earths weather..Or anything that is science...I truly dig the stuff.
519. yoboi
Quoting 503. VR46L:


NO chance... weather not cooperating




yes...
The SST West Pac Loop shows the Temps fall off fast above 28N.

Quoting 515. RTLSNK:


spaceweather.com said it was 7:30 PM EDT


Thanks
As Francisco turns North near or at Okinawa, the intensity graph from 12Z shows it tailing off.



cooler weather in the northeast by sunday
524. VR46L
Quoting 495. nwobilderburg:
Link

Found this online... thought u guys would like it


That's Doom if I ever read doom ,Cat8 35 miles south of Galveston LOL as if ....I think the Florida Panhandle has more chance !
Happy 87th to the man in my avatar, the Grandfather of Rock n Roll, Chuck Berry!

Hoping our relatively dry air (42 dew point) will hold off the clouds and rain long enough to at least see the Hunter's Moon rise. Eclipse view would be nice too, though not sure it will be up soon enough here. Will settle for a dry NLCS and a Bday win for Chuck!
526. txjac
Quoting 523. hurricanes2018:
cooler weather in the northeast by sunday


Looking pretty fallish all over
Quoting 524. VR46L:


That's Doom if I ever read doom ,Cat8 35 miles south of Galveston LOL as if ....I think the Florida Panhandle has more chance !


And holds hurricane status hundreds of miles inland and it's remnants causing a huge tornado outbreak. Lol.
2009?
Quoting 524. VR46L:


That's Doom if I ever read doom ,Cat8 35 miles south of Galveston LOL as if ....I think the Florida Panhandle has more chance !


hypercane..
Quoting 529. MiamiHeat305:


hypercane..


A hypercane would be 500 MPH.
Quoting 530. FunnelVortex:


A hypercane would be 500 MPH.


wonder if its even possible lol probably not in the ATL
The Climate Prediction Center's forecast for the next three months calls for above normal temps across a wide, diagonal swath of the Continental US, with no areas expected to see overall below-normal temperatures.

cpc
Quoting 531. MiamiHeat305:


wonder if its even possible lol probably not in the ATL


The Atlantic can produce some monsters. But I don't think a hypercane is likely on Planet Earth, that is unless a meteor hit the ocean or there was an underwater supervolcanic eruption.
Quoting 530. FunnelVortex:


A hypercane would be 500 MPH.


i read sea surface temps would need to be 122 F for it to happen though
Quoting 485. JrWeathermanFL:
I hate watching weather shows in which half the information is wrong...
Like, "Andrew is the largest natural disaster in America" and "Hurricanes pack winds UP TO 150mph"

Later in the show they said Allen had 190mph and the 1900 Galveston was the largest natural disaster in America, therefore contradicting themselves..


LOL I feel your pain.

One of my favorite lines is "tornadoes are the strongest storms on Earth" which I've heard/seen too many times.

After a statement like that, what do they do when they are confronted with talking about thunderstorms that produce the tornadoes? lol
I know the attention has to be to Supertyphoon Francisco,but let's have some love to 96E in EPAC that may develop into a strong system as conditions appear favorable.

Quoting 173. Patrap:
Its Friday, I'm in Love
That sounds like the "CURE"
Franscisco


Quoting 464. CaribBoy:








Strange weather
Are you going to sucker punch me again by making me think you will actually get some rain?

;o)

It does look like some low clouds, but wouldn't that just mean it's going to rain? I'm not sure what's strange bout it otherwise.

Weather's been great here today... considerably less humid than at the beginning of the week.
Quoting 536. Jedkins01:


LOL I feel your pain.

One of my favorite lines is "tornadoes are the strongest storms on Earth" which I've heard/seen too many times.

After a statement like that, what do they do when they are confronted with talking about thunderstorms that produce the tornadoes? lol


Tornadoes themselves are not even storms. They are just a part of a supercell.
543. yoboi
Quoting 534. MiamiHeat305:


i read sea surface temps would need to be 122 F for it to happen though


some have predicted that will happen by 2018 we shall see how the prediction turns out.......
Quoting 543. yoboi:


some have predicted that will happen by 2018 we shall see how the prediction turns out.......


If the SSTs ever rise high enough for a hypercane, we would see it in the WPAC first.
Invest 96E appears destined to develop into the strongest tropical cyclone of the 2013 Pacific hurricane season.

SHEAR (KT) 9 8 7 4 3 10 4 5 1 5 7 5 5
SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.8
700-500 MB RH 74 75 76 76 75 77 75 74 70 67 62 60 62
Quoting 542. FunnelVortex:


Tornadoes themselves are not even storms. They are just a part of a supercell.


Yeah that's my point, yet I've seen/heard tornadoes referred to as "storms" an awful lot, lol.

Quoting 468. CybrTeddy:


11,000 comments is still is a fair amount. That averages to about 1,571 a year, 130 a month, and 4 a day. It takes about 1 minute to right a decent post, so I guess you could say you average about 4 minutes of time writing and posting.

However, I have 22,485 comments over the course of 8 years. That averages to about 2,810 posts a year, 234 a month, and about 8 a day. That yields about 8 minutes of time per day just writing. That being said, I know I spend one heck of a lot more time on here during hurricane season and I spend very little time on here during post-season. When there's a major storm out there, I'm probably averaging 20-30 posts a day, and I bet you're not terribly far off having joined a year later than me.
Sounds about right. When it's busy I may post 30 times a day. I prolly post more here in the off season than you do, Teddy, but then I also go for days at a time without any posts at all.

I think of blogging as part of my life, like going to a coffee shop and meeting up with friends, only with wx benefits... lol...
Quoting 546. Jedkins01:


Yeah that's my point, yet I've seen/heard tornadoes referred to as "storms" an awful lot, lol.



LOL. Yeah, I'm like "I think it needs to be bigger and independent to be called a storm" a lot when I hear that.
Quoting 472. PensacolaDoug:
I haven't insulted anyone today.



But it's still early.
Don't do it, Doug!!!

:o)

Quoting 546. Jedkins01:


Yeah that's my point, yet I've seen/heard tornadoes referred to as "storms" an awful lot, lol.



What is a storm? The meteorological definition. Does it have a size or duration limit?

I don't know how to define a storm but I know it when I see one ;)
Good morning Super Typhoon Francisco.
Quoting 543. yoboi:


some have predicted that will happen by 2018 we shall see how the prediction turns out.......


Who said we would have 122F sea temps by 2018? I don't remember anyone saying that. If you can give us a link I'd appreciate it.
Quoting 547. BahaHurican:
Sounds about right. When it's busy I may post 30 times a day. I prolly post more here in the off season than you do, Teddy, but then I also go for days at a time without any posts at all.

I think of blogging as part of my life, like going to a coffee shop and meeting up with friends, only with wx benefits... lol...


hold up..I just saw this..11,000 comments, yes but during that time Wilmington has been threatened by two category 4 hurricanes..Earl and Irene..and we had a close brush with Sandy..I think a lot of my comments came from those situations along with tornado threats and snow :)..as TA said sorta, I'm not sitting on here every day posting comments 24/7..its usually during a heightened period..I have been a member since August 2006 with only 11000 comments and maybe about 4 blog entries..I think that is still pretty low compared to the superusers here..your equation doesn't accurately depict the situation Teddy..
Quoting 545. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Invest 96E appears destined to develop into the strongest tropical cyclone of the 2013 Pacific hurricane season.

SHEAR (KT) 9 8 7 4 3 10 4 5 1 5 7 5 5
SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.8
700-500 MB RH 74 75 76 76 75 77 75 74 70 67 62 60 62
Raymond had always been a strong name used for strong storms.
Quoting 485. JrWeathermanFL:
I hate watching weather shows in which half the information is wrong...
Like, "Andrew is the largest natural disaster in America" and "Hurricanes pack winds UP TO 150mph"

Later in the show they said Allen had 190mph and the 1900 Galveston was the largest natural disaster in America, therefore contradicting themselves..
This is just really shoddy journalism. The information is so readily available - and for FREE!!! - that it is unbelievable they could get it so wrong.

Quoting 488. JSparrow:
Digital Typhoon has a nice animation of the last 120 hrs, with Wipha brushing Japan, and Francisco following.

Link


Francisco:

A compilation of this year's Eastern Hemisphere activity would prolly be quite spectacular...

Quoting 505. Hurricane614:


I plan to. Great viewing conditions around here. Do you know what time it peaks?
How far south will the viewing be good on the East coast? I'm trying to decide whether I should make the effort.
Quoting 545. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Invest 96E appears destined to develop into the strongest tropical cyclone of the 2013 Pacific hurricane season.

SHEAR (KT) 9 8 7 4 3 10 4 5 1 5 7 5 5
SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.8
700-500 MB RH 74 75 76 76 75 77 75 74 70 67 62 60 62

And yet, watch it develop only into a weak TS and then dissipate for no reason since it's 2013. :v
Quoting 556. wxchaser97:

And yet, watch it develop only into a weak TS and then dissipate for no reason since it's 2013. :v

It better not. This will have the support of both a robust MJO signature in the upper-levels and a convectively-coupled kelvin wave.

12z EC deepens it to a strong Category 2 hurricane. It would not surprise me.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #26
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON FRANCISCO (T1327)
6:00 AM JST October 19 2013
=====================================

Near Marianas Island

At 21:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Francisco (920 hPa) located at 16.0N 140.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 150 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 9 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
180 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 18.4N 138.1E - 105 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
45 HRS: 20.5N 136.8E - 105 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea South Of Japan
69 HRS: 23.5N 135.3E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea South Of Japan
Riverside, Jurupa Valley, CA (Indian Hills), Jurupa Valley, California (PWS)
Updated: 3:02 PM PDT on October 18, 2013
Clear
86.3 F
Clear
Humidity: 19%
Dew Point: 39 F

Wind: 4.6 mph from the SE
Wind Gust: 15.5 mph
Pressure: 29.89 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 83 F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 6.0 out of 16
Pollen: 4.40 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1000 ft

88F at the Airport across the river. Lovely Day.

Quoting 559. PedleyCA:
Riverside, Jurupa Valley, CA (Indian Hills), Jurupa Valley, California (PWS)
Updated: 3:02 PM PDT on October 18, 2013
Clear
86.3 �F
Clear
Humidity: 19%
Dew Point: 39 �F

Wind: 4.6 mph from the SE
Wind Gust: 15.5 mph
Pressure: 29.89 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 83 �F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 6.0 out of 16
Pollen: 4.40 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1000 ft

88F at the Airport across the river. Lovely Day.



So that's the 'dry heat' I keep hearing about! Sounds nice. I wish it happened here.
Quoting 552. DonnieBwkGA:


Who said we would have 122F sea temps by 2018? I don't remember anyone saying that. If you can give us a link I'd appreciate it.


Those voices in his head.
Quoting 560. DonnieBwkGA:


So that's the 'dry heat' I keep hearing about! Sounds nice. I wish it happened here.


I have seen it as low as 4%, that is DRY... this is just nice. Good water cooler weather, but not Hot enough to need it really......
Quoting 513. FunnelVortex:


ROFL!
OK, that was not so funny...

The hurricane kept increasing in strength, eventually reaching borderline category 5/category 6 intensity by the time it reached the Bahamas on September 9. Hurricane-force winds extended for 150 miles (240 km/h), and tropical-storm-force winds extended 350 miles (560 km), with an eye that was 30 miles across. The hurricane hit the area in the middle of the day, trapping thousands who were evacuating the islands. The hurricane's 190 mph (305 km/h) winds leveled most of the cities in the nation, including Nassau, which was leveled by the 25-foot (7.6 meter) storm surge and 185 mph (300 km/h) winds. The nation was devastated, with over 25,000 dead. Many of the people died as the winds actually crushed thousands of cars, which complicated evacuations.

See, there's nothing like inaccurate info to detract from the effectiveness of a piece.

1) No matter how bad the storm is here, nobody would be evacuating the islands once the TCI were under the storm... there's maybe 60 miles between the TCI and the Bahamas... not that anybody who lives here would evacuate anyway....

2) There are only TWO cities, Nassau and Freeport. I'd expect both of them to be leveled. Maybe communities would be better?

3)Nobody would be attempting to evacuate anywhere during a hurricane in a car in the Bahamas. And cars would more likely be washed away by storm surge [washover] than crushed by wind.

Quoting 563. BahaHurican:
OK, that was not so funny...

The hurricane kept increasing in strength, eventually reaching borderline category 5/category 6 intensity by the time it reached the Bahamas on September 9. Hurricane-force winds extended for 150 miles (240 km/h), and tropical-storm-force winds extended 350 miles (560 km), with an eye that was 30 miles across. The hurricane hit the area in the middle of the day, trapping thousands who were evacuating the islands. The hurricane's 190 mph (305 km/h) winds leveled most of the cities in the nation, including Nassau, which was leveled by the 25-foot (7.6 meter) storm surge and 185 mph (300 km/h) winds. The nation was devastated, with over 25,000 dead. Many of the people died as the winds actually crushed thousands of cars, which complicated evacuations.

See, there's nothing like inaccurate info to detract from the effectiveness of a piece.

1) No matter how bad the storm is here, nobody would be evacuating the islands once the TCI were under the storm... there's maybe 60 miles between the TCI and the Bahamas... not that anybody who lives here would evacuate anyway....

2) There are only TWO cities, Nassau and Freeport. I'd expect both of them to be leveled. Maybe communities would be better?

3)Nobody would be attempting to evacuate anywhere during a hurricane in a car in the Bahamas. And cars would more likely be washed away by storm surge [washover] than crushed by wind.



Not all the islands of the Bahamas are low, right? What islands have hills over 50 feet?
Quoting 563. BahaHurican:
OK, that was not so funny...

The hurricane kept increasing in strength, eventually reaching borderline category 5/category 6 intensity by the time it reached the Bahamas on September 9. Hurricane-force winds extended for 150 miles (240 km/h), and tropical-storm-force winds extended 350 miles (560 km), with an eye that was 30 miles across. The hurricane hit the area in the middle of the day, trapping thousands who were evacuating the islands. The hurricane's 190 mph (305 km/h) winds leveled most of the cities in the nation, including Nassau, which was leveled by the 25-foot (7.6 meter) storm surge and 185 mph (300 km/h) winds. The nation was devastated, with over 25,000 dead. Many of the people died as the winds actually crushed thousands of cars, which complicated evacuations.

See, there's nothing like inaccurate info to detract from the effectiveness of a piece.

1) No matter how bad the storm is here, nobody would be evacuating the islands once the TCI were under the storm... there's maybe 60 miles between the TCI and the Bahamas... not that anybody who lives here would evacuate anyway....

2) There are only TWO cities, Nassau and Freeport. I'd expect both of them to be leveled. Maybe communities would be better?

3)Nobody would be attempting to evacuate anywhere during a hurricane in a car in the Bahamas. And cars would more likely be washed away by storm surge [washover] than crushed by wind.



It's just such an unrealistic situation. Category 8? Maintaining Cat 2 hurricane strength more than 100 miles inland? Seriously?

Hypothetical Hurricanes Wiki has some of the most insane things ever.
I thought that Hazel and Katrina were cat 2 100 miles inland but I'm not sure. I'm too hungry to look that up. Gotta eat!
[PDF]
Hurricane Katrina August 23-31, 2005 - National Weather Service
www.nws.noaa.gov/om/assessments/pdfs/Katrina.pdf



WFO Jackson, MS

Within WFO Jackson’s service area, the primary weather-related impact of Katrina was high winds and tornadoes. Katrina produced eleven tornadoes in WFO
Jackson’s service area. Of these tornadoes, two were rated F-2, and the other nine were rated F-1. The damage associated with these tornadoes was mostly fallen and uprooted trees with some minor damage to roofs and buildings. WFO Jackson’s average tornado
warning lead time was 16.5 minutes.

Forty-six fatalities have been attributed to Katrina in WFO Jackson’s service area.
In addition, 568 homes and 102 mobile homes were destroyed, and 5,851 homes suffered significant damage. The State of Mississippi estimates that about one million trees were blown down and more than one million residents in central and eastern Mississippi lost power during Katrina. Wind gusts of 80 to 110 mph were widespread in the southern and
eastern portion of WFO Jackson’s service area.

On August 24, WFO Jackson began to provide information on Katrina to their emergency management community. While NHC forecasts kept Katrina well east of
Mississippi at this time, WFO Jackson advised emergency managers to monitor the storm. By the morning of August 27, NHC’s forecast brought Katrina directly into WFO Jackson’s service area. Later that day, NHC posted a hurricane watch for the north
central Gulf Coast including the coast of Mississippi. WFO Jackson issued a detailed Special Weather Statement that afternoon to raise awareness and recommend preparedness activities:

A LARGE SWATH OF SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AROUND 60 MILES AN HOUR
AND HIGHER...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH...WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AREAS
EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 MONDAY EVENING
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DECIDE WHICH PART OF YOUR HOUSE IS SAFEST
AND CREATE A FAMILY DISASTER PLAN. CHECK YOUR STOCK OF CANNED
FOODS...FIRST AID SUPPLIES...DRINKING WATER AND PRESCRIPTION
DRUGS. MAKE PLANS FOR POSSIBLE PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES AND
LOSS OF WATER OR OTHER UTILITIES.

On August 28, WFO Jackson issued inland hurricane and tropical storm watches
and warnings. Their forecasts, warnings, and statements issued throughout the weekend
stressed the potential for Katrina to produce significant wind damage well inland and
tornadoes. Jeff Mayo, Director of Neshoba County, MS, Emergency Management
Agency said as a result of the threats mentioned in the WFO Jackson forecasts, warnings,
and statements, the county recommended residents leave mobile homes before the
morning of August 29. A number of mobile homes were destroyed by tornadoes in
Neshoba County August 29. Jeff Mayo stated that because of the county’s action, based
on information provided by WFO Jackson, “…undoubtedly lives were saved.”

On the morning of August 29, as Katrina was making landfall in southeast
Louisiana, WFO Jackson shifted its focus to short-term warnings, forecasts, and
statements such as the following Special Weather Statement issued at 9:25 a.m. CDT:

ANALYSIS OF DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE DANGEROUS EYEWALL OF KATRINA WILL LIKELY
BE REACHING THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THESE COUNTIES BY
AROUND MIDDAY.KATRINA MAY STILL BE A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE
....WITH WINDS OF 100 TO 120 MPH POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WIND DAMAGE. TREAT THIS SITUATION AS IF IT WERE A TORNADO. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OF THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

WFO Jackson issued a total of 98 watches, warnings, and statements for Katrina
Since life began on this planet millions of years ago, how many tipping points have we had?

I submit there have been "millions" of tipping points.....

If we had "stopped" any one of those tipping points, is it possible that we wouldn't be here?

Something to ponder......

PS - I love tree's, clean water, and clean air...... but I am not fond of GW or Climate Change sensationalism......
Quoting 564. DonnieBwkGA:


Not all the islands of the Bahamas are low, right? What islands have hills over 50 feet?
Almost all of them. We are lowlying, but most islands have at least one ridge of "sand dune" type hills over 60 feet.
Quoting 555. BahaHurican:
This is just really shoddy journalism. The information is so readily available - and for FREE!!! - that it is unbelievable they could get it so wrong.

A compilation of this year's Eastern Hemisphere activity would prolly be quite spectacular...

How far south will the viewing be good on the East coast? I'm trying to decide whether I should make the effort.


From what I see, best viewing will be in northeast, but maybe visible all up and down the coast.
Humans were not even around the last time the atmosphere hit 400ppm CO2 during the Pliocene.

Prolly will be a interesting Century this un.


Smell dem shrimps dey beginning to burl'
Quoting 565. FunnelVortex:


It's just such an unrealistic situation. Category 8? Maintaining Cat 2 hurricane strength more than 100 miles inland? Seriously?

Hypothetical Hurricanes Wiki has some of the most insane things ever.


Hugo was a beast as well!

"Hurricane Hugo plowed through the center of South Carolina on September 22, 1989, reaching the North Carolina border 140 miles inland by 8am EDT. Amazingly, Hugo remained at hurricane strength for its entire passage through South Carolina--a full eight hours. The hurricane caused massive damage to forests, buildings, and power lines along the way, killing thirteen South Carolinans in total. Charlotte, North Carolina, over 200 miles inland, and a place of refuge for many South Carolinans that fled the storm, received sustained winds of 69 mph from Hugo--just below the 74-mph threshold of hurricane strength."


Friday October 18, 2013
TRMM Monitors Powerful Typhoon Francisco
One of the strongest typhoons of 2013 called Francisco developed in the Western Pacific Ocean on October 16, 2013. The image on the left was made from data collected as the TRMM satellite passed over on October 18, 2013 at 1002 UTC when typhoon Francisco with wind speeds of about 125kts (~144 mph) was located west-northwest of Guam. A rainfall analysis that used data from TRMM's Microwave Imager (TMI) and Precipitation Radar (PR) instruments is shown on the left overlaid on an enhanced infrared image from TRMM's Visible and InfraRed Scanner (VIRS). TRMM PR found that rain was falling at a rate of over 113 mm/hr (~4.5 inches) in powerful storms within Francisco's distinct eye wall. The image on the right shows a simulated 3-D cutaway view of typhoon Francisco using data from TRMM's Precipitation Radar (PR) instrument.
Quoting 253. StormTrackerScott:
Notice what happend this year. This is the reason for the recent dud hurricane season. For the kids out there this is the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation .

Quoting 318. StormTrackerScott:
One thing we can agree on is a Cold AMO will drastically reduce the number of major hurricanes over the coming years.
No, the AMO is positive, Scott. Latest monthly value (Sep 2013) is (positive) 0.290. Last time we had a negative monthly value was Jan 2012. Link
Quoting 568. thelmores:
>
PS - I love tree's, clean water, and clean air...... but I am not fond of GW or Climate Change sensationalism......
Me too - I abhor sensationalism, but appreciate the good, solid climate science that many of our more intelligent and informed commenters bring to the discussions here!
Quoting 571. Patrap:
Humans were not even around the last time the atmosphere hit 400ppm CO2 during the Pliocene.

Prolly will be a interesting Century this un.


Smell dem shrimps dey beginning to burl'

The humans probably won't be around when the CO2 dips back under 400 PPM either!
Quoting 575. Xulonn:
Me too - I abhor sensationalism, but appreciate the good, solid climate science that many of our more intelligent and informed commenters bring to the discussions here!


I have always said that having intelligence and using intelligence is two different things.....

Was not long ago, in my lifetime, that scientists were pondering global cooling and potential start of new ice age.....

Excuse me if I don't just "blindly" accept conclusions based upon flawed science! In an equation, if you put crap in, the answer you get out is crap!

Lastly, even if the globe is warming, regulating and taxing American citizens WILL NOT stop it..... we would be much better suited spending our time and efforts learning how to cope with climate change...... instead of arrogantly believing that we can stop it!

Not sure why I bother..... since their are many "more intelligent and informed" folks that post here.....
Quoting 532. Neapolitan:
The Climate Prediction Center's forecast for the next three months calls for above normal temps across a wide, diagonal swath of the Continental US, with no areas expected to see overall below-normal temperatures.

cpc


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weath er-gang/wp/2013/04/25/aers-judah-cohen-produces-am azingly-accurate-winter-outlook/
Quoting 578. tramp96:


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weath er-gang/wp/2013/04/25/aers-judah-cohen-produces-am azingly-accurate-winter-outlook/


Link
Quoting 532. Neapolitan:
The Climate Prediction Center's forecast for the next three months calls for above normal temps across a wide, diagonal swath of the Continental US, with no areas expected to see overall below-normal temperatures.

cpc

Well, technically-speaking, no places have a >33% chance of below-normal temperatures. :)
This model run sez it all about the upcoming pattern...Link


Francisco,s eye seems to contracted a bit..
Hey, this is fun: last Sunday, I discovered a pair of errors in two of the TCRs for this year's tropical storms, and wrote to the NHC about them. They fixed those errors and updated the TCRs, then sent me a gracious thank you note. All of which goes to prove that even "evil" government employees can be pretty cool... ;-)
583. MTWX
Quoting 566. DonnieBwkGA:
I thought that Hazel and Katrina were cat 2 100 miles inland but I'm not sure. I'm too hungry to look that up. Gotta eat!


Not sure, but depending on your source, Katrina was a Cat 1 over Columbus, MS ~260 miles north of the coast.

Officially NWS has it as a TS by that point (due to the closest official reporting station being Tuscaloosa, AL), but I maintained the weather equipment here at the base at the time. Our set of NWS certified anemometers outfitted with a recorder measured 5 minute sustained wind of 75-80 MPH over the course of 1.5 hours with the highest gust at 104. Many trees were toppled and a few of our buildings lost their roof.
Quoting 577. thelmores:

I have always said that having intelligence and using intelligence is two different things.....

Ok, so far so good...
Quoting 577. thelmores:

Was not long ago, in my lifetime, that scientists were pondering global cooling and potential start of new ice age.....

Oh bother. And you were starting of with such potential.
Quoting 581. hydrus:
This model run sez it all about the upcoming pattern...Link


Francisco,s eye seems to contracted a bit..


CDO has eroded too, so Francisco is likely to begin an EWRC soon.
Quoting 582. Neapolitan:
Hey, this is fun: last Sunday, I discovered a pair of errors in two of the TCRs for this year's tropical storms, and wrote to the NHC about them. They fixed those errors and updated the TCRs, then sent me a gracious thank you note. All of which goes to prove that even "evil" government employees can be pretty cool... ;-)


What were those errors?
any signs of development in the caribbean anytime soon?
Quoting 583. MTWX:


Not sure, but depending on your source, Katrina was a Cat 1 over Columbus, MS ~260 miles north of the coast.

Officially NWS has it as a TS by that point (due to the closest official reporting station being Tuscaloosa, AL), but I maintained the weather equipment here at the base at the time. Our set of NWS certified anemometers outfitted with a recorder measured 5 minute sustained wind of 75-80 MPH over the course of 1.5 hours with the highest gust at 104. Many trees were toppled and a few of our buildings lost their roof.

Did you ever contact your local NWS office about that, to see if those readings would be considered for the TCR?
North Carolina Snowfall Predictions from Ray's Weather...

Boone 38"
Wilkesboro 10" (me!)
Banner Elk 43"
Beech Mountain 100"
Spruce Pine 23"
Sugar Mountain 90"

Reasoning:
Link
Quoting 578. tramp96:


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weath er-gang/wp/2013/04/25/aers-judah-cohen-produces-am azingly-accurate-winter-outlook/

Looks interesting... now we need the following:
1) more independent groups to find the same relationship and reach similar conclusions
2) more study into the mechanism by which increased Siberian snowcover favors a colder Arctic Oscillation
3) more study into what causes the increased Siberian snowcover in fall
4) more seasonal comparisons comparing forecasts spatially between groups (NOAA vs. Cohen)

The AO is still regarded as a rather unpredictable climate variability index, even more so than ENSO. It certainly would be helpful, at least on a regional scale, to improve predictability.
591. MTWX
Quoting 588. ScottLincoln:

Did you ever contact your local NWS office about that, to see if those readings would be considered for the TCR?


We brought it up to our weather flight, but I'm not sure if they ever contacted NWS Jackson...
Quoting 571. Patrap:
Humans were not even around the last time the atmosphere hit 400ppm CO2 during the Pliocene.

Prolly will be a interesting Century this un.


Smell dem shrimps dey beginning to burl'

Dem humans wilt probly be remembered as da species which took the CO2 levels up above 400 PPM, then expired.
Not too sure who will be doing the remembering though!
Quoting 587. MiamiHeat305:
any signs of development in the caribbean anytime soon?



nop
About to head out to check out the eclipse. I'll tell you guys if it's anything worth it, and if so will have pictures tomorrow!
Quoting 564. DonnieBwkGA:


Not all the islands of the Bahamas are low, right? What islands have hills over 50 feet?
Ever hear about the story where the Bahamas recently formed? See, Florida was twice as big as now. The Bahamas, as we know it now, was a huge island, with a lot of little islands around it. Just like Florida, the whole thing had been seabed of one form or another in ancient times, but not too long ago it went under for the most part. It had elephants and other strange creatures. The scenario played out by Uncle Fester is one of the sea taking away the surface evidence depositing it in a deeper lagoon, and coral encrustations covering it followed by slick clays. He is a wise uncle, that Fester. 206 ft. Cat island. That does not count as for where people live.
96E up to 40%/60%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI OCT 18 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

WOW! The lunar eclipse was amazing! If you have a chance to see it do it! That just changed my life!
Looking at the moon... not seeing anything and the peak is around 7:50. -_-
Quoting 573. whitewabit:


Friday October 18, 2013
TRMM Monitors Powerful Typhoon Francisco
One of the strongest typhoons of 2013 called Francisco developed in the Western Pacific Ocean on October 16, 2013. The image on the left was made from data collected as the TRMM satellite passed over on October 18, 2013 at 1002 UTC when typhoon Francisco with wind speeds of about 125kts (~144 mph) was located west-northwest of Guam. A rainfall analysis that used data from TRMM's Microwave Imager (TMI) and Precipitation Radar (PR) instruments is shown on the left overlaid on an enhanced infrared image from TRMM's Visible and InfraRed Scanner (VIRS). TRMM PR found that rain was falling at a rate of over 113 mm/hr (~4.5 inches) in powerful storms within Francisco's distinct eye wall. The image on the right shows a simulated 3-D cutaway view of typhoon Francisco using data from TRMM's Precipitation Radar (PR) instrument.
Right now is the time of reckoning for the N. Marianas. From what I hear they are good people who like to stay off the grid,(I do not blame them). I doubt if anyone will set up a relief fund for them, but on the other hand if anyone knows how to survive this kind of weather it would be them. They have been at it for a couple thousand years at least. My best hopes and prayers go out to them tonight.
Quoting 598. Doppler22:
Looking at the moon... not seeing anything and the peak is around 7:50. -_-


where are you?
Quoting 595. Pallis:
Ever hear about the story where the Bahamas recently formed? See, Florida was twice as big as now. The Bahamas, as we know it now, was a huge island, with a lot of little islands around it. Just like Florida, the whole thing had been seabed of one form or another in ancient times, but not too long ago it went under for the most part. It had elephants and other strange creatures. The scenario played out by Uncle Fester is one of the sea taking away the surface evidence depositing it in a deeper lagoon, and coral encrustations covering it followed by slick clays. He is a wise uncle, that Fester. 206 ft. Cat island. That does not count as for where people live.
Cave divers down 500 feet in the Bahamas found some curious stuff at the bottom...Bat guano. things were alot different back then..and it was not long ago in geologic terms.
Quoting 600. Hurricane614:


where are you?

Southern Pennsylvania, which I heard was a great place to see it
Quoting 581. hydrus:
This model run sez it all about the upcoming pattern...Link


Francisco,s eye seems to contracted a bit..


Convection around the center appears to be warming slightly
The central dense overcast is not as symmetric as earlier but recent microwave imagery does not indicate an eyewall replacement cycle underway.

Quoting 602. Doppler22:

Southern Pennsylvania, which I heard was a great place to see it


I'm in Southern NY, and am getting a good view. The hunters moon itself sis gorgeous.
Quoting 598. Doppler22:
Looking at the moon... not seeing anything and the peak is around 7:50. -_-


cloud bank moved in .. can see the glow but not the moon ..
Quoting 603. Hurricane614:


Convection around the center appears to be warming slightly
Eyewall regeneration cycle should begin before long. Then da cold tops come back.
Quoting 599. Pallis:
Right now is the time of reckoning for the N. Marianas. From what I hear they are good people who like to stay off the grid,(I do not blame them). I doubt if anyone will set up a relief fund for them, but on the other hand if anyone knows how to survive this kind of weather it would be them. They have been at it for a couple thousand years at least. My best hopes and prayers go out to them tonight.


The Northern Marianas Islands are largely uninhabited. Guam did get a glancing blow but the concern now is for Japan. Link
Quoting 563. BahaHurican:
OK, that was not so funny...

The hurricane kept increasing in strength, eventually reaching borderline category 5/category 6 intensity by the time it reached the Bahamas on September 9. Hurricane-force winds extended for 150 miles (240 km/h), and tropical-storm-force winds extended 350 miles (560 km), with an eye that was 30 miles across. The hurricane hit the area in the middle of the day, trapping thousands who were evacuating the islands. The hurricane's 190 mph (305 km/h) winds leveled most of the cities in the nation, including Nassau, which was leveled by the 25-foot (7.6 meter) storm surge and 185 mph (300 km/h) winds. The nation was devastated, with over 25,000 dead. Many of the people died as the winds actually crushed thousands of cars, which complicated evacuations.

See, there's nothing like inaccurate info to detract from the effectiveness of a piece.

1) No matter how bad the storm is here, nobody would be evacuating the islands once the TCI were under the storm... there's maybe 60 miles between the TCI and the Bahamas... not that anybody who lives here would evacuate anyway....

2) There are only TWO cities, Nassau and Freeport. I'd expect both of them to be leveled. Maybe communities would be better?

3)Nobody would be attempting to evacuate anywhere during a hurricane in a car in the Bahamas. And cars would more likely be washed away by storm surge [washover] than crushed by wind.

That big storm on Jupiter just reached Category 409. Don't go there.
Penumbral Eclipse

a different link
Use the Force Wabit......
Quoting 607. whitewabit:


cloud bank moved in .. can see the glow but not the moon ..

I can see the moon clearly though...
Quoting 609. goosegirl1:


The Northern Marianas Islands are largely uninhabited. Guam did get a glancing blow but the concern now is for Japan. Link


I wouldn't call 53K people uninhabited ..
Quoting 613. Doppler22:

I can see the moon clearly though...


Oh well. I have seen one before. nevermind :p
Quoting 577. thelmores:


I have always said that having intelligence and using intelligence is two different things.....

Was not long ago, in my lifetime, that scientists were pondering global cooling and potential start of new ice age.....


How many times does this need to be debunked? At no time was "global cooling" ever considered a possibility by the scientific community. The MEDIA latched on to a couple fringe scientists and sensationalized the whole mess. But even a cursory search of publications during that time period shows that literally only a couple of papers (introduced by the same guy) even broached the subject, and later on even he didn't support them.

Excuse me if I don't just "blindly" accept conclusions based upon flawed science!


No is expecting you to blindly accept anything. You can read the papers. You can check the analysis. In a number of cases you can even download the data. The only person preventing you from doing this is yourself.

You also claim the science is flawed. Which science? What flaws? Greenhouse theory has been around for close to 200 years, and involves multiple branches of science ranging from chemistry to thermodynamics. AGW has been around for about 114 years and is based on Greenhouse theory and the same sciences. So what part is flawed? All of it? The physics? The chemistry? The fluid dynamics? The thermodynamics?

If you're going to make claims about flawed science in a field where the scientific results arrived at by contributions from thousands of scientists for the past 100+ years, then you're going to need to make one hell of a strong case (a lot stronger than shouting "IT'S FLAWED" on an internet blog).

In an equation, if you put crap in, the answer you get out is crap!


Stating this is completely irrelevant to your premise. You haven't even identified what you think is flawed, let alone any of the equations used to construct a global climate model. Or are you saying that the data fed to the models is flawed? Again, you're going to have construct a much stronger argument, since the GCM's replicate historical and current climate quite accurately.

Lastly, even if the globe is warming, regulating and taxing American citizens WILL NOT stop it.....


Non-sequitor. Policy decisions are made by politicians, not scientists. The science stands regardless of what our idiotic representatives/government decide to do with it. For example, despite the science showing that CFCs were causing ozone depletion, it took more than a decade for anything to be done about it. Policy != Science.

Also, we've long past the point where we could stop the warming. Doing so now would require a massive global effort over several decades. That simply isn't going to happen. Most scientists are now recommending a course of action to reduce potential warming and preparation.

we would be much better suited spending our time and efforts learning how to cope with climate change...... instead of arrogantly believing that we can stop it!


No one does. Or rather no climate scientist does. You might as well ask for world peace. That's the type of cooperation it would require. And it isn't going to happen unless things get really bad (an by then it will be far too late).

Not sure why I bother..... since their are many "more intelligent and informed" folks that post here.....


There are. And that's not meant to be insulting either, unlike the last line of your comment. While those you derisively call "more intelligent and informed" post links to papers, sites, and research to back up their arguments, all you've thrown up is ideological arguments, bold statements with no proof, and empty rhetoric. That's not really convincing.
A bit random but I thought I would mention it. The USS Zumwalt is set to be commissioned tomorrow. This is the latest destroyer in the US arsenal and is set to replace Arleigh Burke class destroyers.



Currently armed with with cruise missiles/AA missiles and a brand new 2x 155mm AGS guns this is the single most advance ship out there. Something impressive about the 155mm AGS is its range. Shoots a 24 in shell 60 miles. Later runs of the ship are being fitted with railguns and free-electron lasers. Ship is not cheap however and cost 3.45 Billion USD per unit.


Zumwalt getting its final paint job before ceremony.



Quoting 568. thelmores:
Since life began on this planet millions of years ago, how many tipping points have we had?

I submit there have been "millions" of tipping points.....

If we had "stopped" any one of those tipping points, is it possible that we wouldn't be here?

Something to ponder......

PS - I love tree's, clean water, and clean air...... but I am not fond of GW or Climate Change sensationalism......
Lead-based underwear designed in Japan to help fight Fukushima disaster
RT - ‎3 hours ago‎ Then maybe you would be interested in the latest fashions! Carbon/lead wetsuit to work? why not? All the others will be envious while you enjoy the work day, and no checking for extra growths on the weekend. Order now for custom American fits!


Just took this shot, Here is a Cayman Moon.
Quoting 614. whitewabit:


I wouldn't call 53K people uninhabited ..


The is almost that many people in Saipan alone. However, there is a long string of nearly empty islands stretching to the north from Guam Link

Link

Quoting 586. CybrTeddy:


What were those errors?


spelling errors..


Quoting 577. thelmores:


I have always said that having intelligence and using intelligence is two different things.....

Was not long ago, in my lifetime, that scientists were pondering global cooling and potential start of new ice age.....

Excuse me if I don't just "blindly" accept conclusions based upon flawed science! In an equation, if you put crap in, the answer you get out is crap!

Lastly, even if the globe is warming, regulating and taxing American citizens WILL NOT stop it..... we would be much better suited spending our time and efforts learning how to cope with climate change...... instead of arrogantly believing that we can stop it!

Not sure why I bother..... since their are many "more intelligent and informed" folks that post here.....
Again, I agree with you on some of your points. I don't "blindly accept" conclusions based on flawed science either. and that part of the equation comes mostly from people like scientists Richard Lintzen, Judith Curry, Roy Spencer, and others, plus denialist blogs and websites, some openly funded by the fossil fuel industry and their conservative-backed so-called "think tanks.' Such bloggers include Anthony Watts, whoever calls himself Steven Goddard, and many others. Your comment about "In an equation, if you put crap in, the answer you get out is crap!" is a perfect description for the just mentioned scientists, bloggers and their websites.

Do you know anyone who is even speculating how low-lying areas like Florida, Bangladesh and California's great central valley can "adapt" to at least 5 or 6 feet of sea level increase in 2 or 3 generations? Parts of Miami are already flooding in the annual high tides and sea level rise is such a well documented fact, that few even try to dispute it - and those who do are the ones not using their intelligence!

long range..but exciting to see..

18z GFS snow depth map





Quoting 601. hydrus:
Cave divers down 500 feet in the Bahamas found some curious stuff at the bottom...Bat guano. things were alot different back then..and it was not long ago in geologic terms.
Not long indeed. Here in Florida we have a Yankee university that has taken the title of fossil Nazis. They take over sites, put up signs, and lobby for extremely stiff penalties for disturbance, but stop no construction development for any reason. We do our own research and come up with our own conclusions as a result. I would never tell them of the least important dig. My take is that it is better to leave it in the ground until an advanced civilization comes along, or dig it up and secret it away to higher elevations with the soil attached if threatened by a white guy wearing a hard hat with a small army of illegal aliens.
Quoting 622. Xulonn:
Again, I agree with you on some of your points. I don't "blindly accept" conclusions based on flawed science either. and that part of the equation comes mostly from people like scientists Richard Lintzen, Judith Curry, Roy Spencer, and others, plus denialist blogs and websites, some openly funded by the fossil fuel industry and their conservative-backed so-called "think tanks.' Such bloggers include Anthony Watts, whoever calls himself Steven Goddard, and many others. Your comment about "In an equation, if you put crap in, the answer you get out is crap!" is a perfect description for the just mentioned scientists, bloggers and their websites.

Do you know anyone who is even speculating how low-lying areas like Florida, Bangladesh and California's great central valley can "adapt" to at least 5 or 6 feet of sea level increase in 2 or 3 generations? Parts of Miami are already flooding in the annual high tides and sea level rise is such a well documented fact, that few even try to dispute it - and those who do are the ones not using their intelligence!


Sounds way too high, Xulonn. 5 or 6 feet. No way. Adjust your numbers.
I remember "Winter Storm Nemo's" weather channel forecast. 1-3 inches of snow possible. It went up a little to 3-6 inches, and until right up to the storm it stayed that way. We ended up with 14 inches. All thought this hurricane season, they have said they don't expect development, because of "extremely dry air" around the storm, but whenever they say that it developed. With Jerry, I remember Carl Parker specifically say, "I think the odds will go down on invest 96L, because of strong wind shear. It appears that this will get ripped apart soon, and we don't expect any development. Later that day the headline of weather.com is New Tropical Storm forms in Atlantic I almost find it funny, on how wrong they can be. Even when my town got heavy rain for 2 hours straight, and picked up 5 inches, they had are forecast at 60% of light rain. Does anyone else feel this way or it it just me?
Quoting 616. Xyrus2000:

...[Polite and solid analysis and debunking of a post]
Excellent post - both the form and content support my comment about intelligent and informed people here. Thanks!
Quoting 626. Hurricane614:
I remember "Winter Storm Nemo's" weather channel forecast. 1-3 inches of snow possible. It went up a little to 3-6 inches, and until right up to the storm it stayed that way. We ended up with 14 inches. All thought this hurricane season, they have said they don't expect development, because of "extremely dry air" around the storm, but whenever they say that it developed. With Jerry, I remember Carl Parker specifically say, "I think the odds will go down on invest 96L, because of strong wind shear. It appears that this will get ripped apart soon, and we don't expect any development. Later that day the headline of weather.com is New Tropical Storm forms in Atlantic I almost find it funny, on how wrong they can be. Even when my town got heavy rain for 2 hours straight, and picked up 5 inches, they had are forecast at 60% of light rain. Does anyone else feel this way or it it just me?

Weather is always changing and we still have a lot to learn. That's why meteorologists are in the so-dubbed "problem-solving business".
New Study: ’2013 ranks as one of the least extreme U.S. weather years ever’– Many bad weather events at ‘historically low levels’
By: Marc Morano - Climate DepotOctober 18, 2013 12:25 PM

'Whether you’re talking about tornadoes, wildfires, extreme heat or hurricanes, the good news is that weather-related disasters in the US are all way down this year compared to recent years and, in some cases, down to historically low levels.'

Tornadoes: 'lowest total in several decades'

Number of wildfires: 'On pace to be the lowest it has been in the past ten years'

Extreme Heat: The number of 100 degree days may 'turn out to be the lowest in about 100 years of records'

Hurricanes: 'We are currently in the longest period (8 years) since the Civil War Era without a major hurricane strike in the US (i.e., category 3, 4 or 5)' ( last major hurricane to strike the US was Hurricane Wilma in 2005)

www.climatedepot.com/2013/10/18/new-study-2013-ra nks-as-one-of-the-least-extreme-us-weather-years-e ver-many-bad-weather-events-at-historically-low-le vels
TRMM 3-D flyby of Francisco:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xzr3kUZAEjw&featur e=youtube_gdata_player


This is a simulated 3-D flyby animation over Super-Typhoon Francisco on Oct. 18 using TRMM Satellite Precipitation Radar data. Credit: SSAI/NASA, Hal Pierce.
ClimateDepot.com founder Marc Morano has been called "the Matt Drudge of climate denial," the "king of the skeptics," and "a central cell of the climate-denial machine," and he revels in these descriptions. Although he has no scientific expertise, he is adamant that manmade global warming is a "con job" based on "subprime science." Morano gained prominence working for two of the most vocal climate deniers in the U.S.: Sen. James Inhofe (R-OK), who notoriously called climate change "the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people," and Rush Limbaugh, who we named Climate Change Misinformer of the Year in 2011 for his steadfast denial of climate science and wild conspiracy theories about the climate change "hoax."

These days Morano is paid by an industry-funded group to run the climate denial website ClimateDepot.com. At Climate Depot, Morano serves as the de facto research department for the right-wing media's attacks on climate science, and mobilizes his readers to target individual scientists and reporters for telling the public about climate change threats. The site was instrumental in manufacturing the 2009 "Climategate" controversy, which Morano incorrectly claimed exposed "deliberate manipulation of facts and data" by climate scientists. Morano is a darling of the organization most committed to climate denial, the Heartland Institute. He regularly speaks at their conferences and defended their controversial billboard comparing those who accept climate science to "murderers, tyrants, and madmen" including the Unabomber Ted Kaczynski.


Western Caribbean shear wise couldn't be any more conducive for tropical development, something needs to release the heat build up around here, it's stifling . I think Mother Nature will take care of it before long.
Quoting 625. frankfish:

Sounds way too high, Xulonn. 5 or 6 feet. No way. Adjust your numbers.
Thanks for the polite response, Frank. The IPCC is extraordinarily conservative and cautious in their projections of projected sea level rise in the 21st century. I suspect that one or more tipping points Dr. Masters discussed may kick in and render the current "official" projections moot - and I'm not alone in that line of thinking.

Quoting livescience.com, 9/24/2013
"The big argument in the scientific community is, 'How much is this going to look like past events?" because this really is different," said Josh Willis, a climate scientist at NASA%u2019s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. "We are dumping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere faster than anything done in millions of years, and the temperature is changing really rapidly."

What%u2019s more, after the peak of the last ice age, much more ice was available to melt and raise sea levels than at present, he said.

But the other alternative, physics-based models, still don't account for all of the processes that can influence changing sea levels, potentially underestimating the impact. "So we are stuck between a rock and a hard place," Willis said.

"The 2 meters by 2100 is cited a lot, but if you ask scientists what they think of that number, they say it is probably a little high, maybe 1.5 meters [4.9 feet] is more like an upper bound," Willis said.


Edit: Here's another LINK to the discussion this subject. It seems that there is a lot of dissent on the subject - searching the internet brings up lots of discussions of this - and they are nearly all contending that sea levels are likely to rise much more rapidly than currently predicted by the very conservative models.
Quoting 630. MisterPerfect:

[...] By: Marc Morano - Climate Depot [...]

Climate Denial Playbook: Marc Morano's History of Bullying Scientists


(Click for larger image)
00z Best Track for 96E.

EP, 96, 2013101900, , BEST, 0, 107N, 972W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 170, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Can somebody explain to me exactly what eyewall replacement cycle is. I know what it is, but what does it mean? Strengthening? Weakening? Speed?
This little guy will threaten Tropical Storm Marco's record as smallest tropical cyclone on record if it's designated. With a well-organized ball of convection atop a well-defined center of circulation and winds near 30-35kt, I would indeed declare this. Its name would be Ian.

This is the South Pacific, by the way.


you folks all rock..I learn so much from you!
Quoting 622. Xulonn:
Again, I agree with you on some of your points. I don't "blindly accept" conclusions based on flawed science either. and that part of the equation comes mostly from people like scientists Richard Lintzen, Judith Curry, Roy Spencer, and others, plus denialist blogs and websites, some openly funded by the fossil fuel industry and their conservative-backed so-called "think tanks.' Such bloggers include Anthony Watts, whoever calls himself Steven Goddard, and many others. Your comment about "In an equation, if you put crap in, the answer you get out is crap!" is a perfect description for the just mentioned scientists, bloggers and their websites.

Do you know anyone who is even speculating how low-lying areas like Florida, Bangladesh and California's great central valley can "adapt" to at least 5 or 6 feet of sea level increase in 2 or 3 generations? Parts of Miami are already flooding in the annual high tides and sea level rise is such a well documented fact, that few even try to dispute it - and those who do are the ones not using their intelligence!

Florida is being dragged at 1 inch per annum from Africa. The part that lifts, and erodes just as quickly, is Venice, Sanibel, parts of Port Charlotte, Pine Island, St. Petersburg, Naples to a lesser degree, and ect. The very well known 500 year deluge of Miami(now)is because, as the new lifts, the back end falls. Right now, we as a state are rising in the middle in some parts, but not others. I would contact your trusted real estate agent. The sea has risen by a very slight degree, but you blaming rising seas sinking Miami is very unscientific. If you Google Earth real close you can see the huge drop right off shore. If you peruse the state and local news papers in the last 100 years you will find things that were on land relatively recently in the bay of Biscayne. The land has sunk, and you can easily go north to Jacksonville, St Augustine, Indian River, or Jupiter to corroborate your own investigation. They taught us this stuff in the 80's. What in Jack Snot are they teaching you kids now'a'days?
JMA thinks the Dvorak could go up to T7.5 in 24 hours.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON FRANCISCO (T1327)
9:00 AM JST October 19 2013
=====================================

Near Marianas Island

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Francisco (920 hPa) located at 16.2N 140.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 150 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 8 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
180 NM from the center in north quadrant
150 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 18.3N 137.8E - 115 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 20.6N 136.1E - 105 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea South Of Japan
72 HRS: 23.6N 134.6E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea South Of Japan
Quoting 640. TropicalAnalystwx13:
This little guy will threaten Tropical Storm Marco's record as smallest tropical cyclone on record if it's designated. With a well-organized ball of convection atop a well-defined center of circulation and winds near 30-35kt, I would indeed declare this. Its name would be Ian.

This is the South Pacific, by the way.


Isn't it a bit early for Southern Hemisphere seasons?
Isn't it a bit early for Southern Hemisphere seasons?


not really.. there has been October cyclones in the southern Pacific.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Xavier

article from Wiki
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0032 UTC SAT OCT 19 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962013) 20131019 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
131019 0000 131019 1200 131020 0000 131020 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.7N 97.2W 11.3N 98.5W 11.6N 99.3W 11.9N 99.8W
BAMD 10.7N 97.2W 11.2N 98.4W 11.5N 99.3W 11.6N 99.9W
BAMM 10.7N 97.2W 11.6N 98.5W 12.2N 99.5W 12.6N 100.2W
LBAR 10.7N 97.2W 11.4N 99.1W 12.3N 100.9W 13.2N 102.4W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 31KTS 43KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 31KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
131021 0000 131022 0000 131023 0000 131024 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.2N 100.1W 13.0N 100.3W 13.4N 100.6W 13.6N 101.4W
BAMD 11.7N 100.4W 12.0N 100.9W 12.5N 101.2W 12.9N 101.7W
BAMM 12.8N 100.4W 13.3N 100.8W 13.9N 100.9W 14.3N 101.4W
LBAR 14.4N 103.5W 17.7N 104.0W 21.6N 102.2W 25.8N 98.1W
SHIP 56KTS 72KTS 79KTS 88KTS
DSHP 56KTS 72KTS 79KTS 88KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.7N LONCUR = 97.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 10.3N LONM12 = 95.1W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 9.8N LONM24 = 92.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 170NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Second most intense tropical cyclone in 2013 thus far.
Quoting 639. Hurricane614:
Can somebody explain to me exactly what eyewall replacement cycle is. I know what it is, but what does it mean? Strengthening? Weakening? Speed?

Eyewall replacement cycles are natural within intense tropical cyclones, and almost all systems with winds above 115 mph go through at least one in their lifespan. There are have been many hypotheses on what causes EWRCs, but none have been proven and trying to identify what causes the process has largely been ceased. In an EWRC, outer rainbands contract to form a larger eyewall with a moat of subsidence between the new and old eyewalls. Because the inner eyewall can no longer draw in moisture (it's being robbed by the outer eyewall), it dissipates. Once this happens, the storm loses organization; the pressure rises and the maximum winds come down. However, the storm expands greatly, making it much more of a threat to land (see also: Irene '11, Ike '08, Igor '10). After a while, the outer eyewall contracts to the size of a normal eyewall (10-15 nautical miles) and the system is able to regain intensity.


TWAVE
Quoting 648. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Eyewall replacement cycles are natural within intense tropical cyclones, and almost all systems with winds above 115 mph go through at least one in their lifespan. There are have been many hypotheses on what causes EWRCs, but none have been proven and trying to identify what causes the process has largely been ceased. In an EWRC, outer rainbands contract to form a larger eyewall with a moat of subsidence between the new and old eyewalls. Because the inner eyewall can no longer draw in moister (it's being robbed by the outer eyewall), it dissipates. Once this happens, the storm loses organization; the pressure rises and the maximum winds come down. However, the storm expands greatly, making it much more of a threat to land (see also: Irene '11, Ike '08, Igor '10). After a while, the outer eyewall contracts to the size of a normal eyewall (10-15 nautical miles) and the system is able to regain intensity.


Thanks for that!
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE

METEOROLOGIST JEFF HABY


A feature of significant hurricanes is the eyewall replacement cycle. Basically what occurs is that a new eye begins to develop around the old eye. The new eye gradually decreases in diameter and replaces the old eye. With the profound increase in the number of extreme hurricanes the past few years there has been an opportunity to witness several eyewall replacement cycles.

When an eyewall replacement cycle occurs the intensity of the hurricane usually decreases. For example, a CAT 5 hurricane could weaken to a CAT 4 hurricane. The intensity weakens due to the gradual erosion of the inner eyewall. As the outer eyewall contracts and gains organization then the storm will often increase in intensity. Because of eyewall replacement cycles, a hurricane will typically not remain a CAT 5 for a long period of time.

Although an eyewall replacement cycle tends to reduce the category of a hurricane it also spread the hurricane force winds out over a larger area. This can cause a larger region to experience the extreme damage in a hurricane.

The forecast models have extreme difficulty with predicting an eyewall replacement cycle. Replacement cycles will usually happen with intense hurricanes but it is not known exactly when.

An important question is, "What causes these eyewall replacement cycles?" That is still being researched. Here are some possible explanations:

1. When the eye diameter gets too small then the eyewall convection is not able to stay organized. New convection and a new eyewall develop outside the old one where there is more space and energy.

2. Once the winds become too strong, turbulent breakdown occurs. This turbulence breaks apart portions of the eyewall which lead to its weakening. A new eyewall develops where the wind field remains less turbulent and more organized outside the old eyewall.

3. The band of convection outside the inner eyewall begins to rob the inner eyewall of moisture and energy. The inner eyewall weakens and the outer eyewall, which has greater moisture and energy, replaces it.

Here is an example of an eyewall replacement cycle. This radar image is of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 that struck the coast of Southeast Louisiana and Mississippi. Notice the circular blue color in the center. That is the eye of Katrina. Notice to the southeast of the eye is a clear area. Notice there is a second eye around the inner eye and the clear area. The inner eye is on the north end of the outer eye. That second outer eye was in the process of replacing the inner eye when Katrina made landfall.

Quoting 636. Xulonn:
Thanks for the polite response, Frank. The IPCC is extraordinarily conservative and cautious in their projections of projected sea level rise in the 21st century. I suspect that one or more tipping points Dr. Masters discussed may kick in and render the current "official" projections moot - and I'm not alone in that line of thinking.



Edit: Here's another LINK to the discussion this subject. It seems that there is a lot of dissent on the subject - searching the internet brings up lots of discussions of this - and they are nearly all contending that sea levels are likely to rise much more rapidly than currently predicted by the very conservative models.


Rahmstorf(2010) gives a range of projections which are much greater than both Ar4 and AR5:



Estimates for twenty-first century sea level rise from semi-empirical models2, 8, 16, 17, 18 as compared to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)1. For exact definitions of the time periods and emissions scenarios considered, see the original references.

Source: A new view on sea level rise Stefan Rahmstorf







WP262013 - Typhoon (>=96 kt) FRANCISCO

Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery Loop


click image for Loop

Click Loop to ZOOM


re-loaded


Pinwheel!

Quoting 652. Patrap:
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE

METEOROLOGIST JEFF HABY


A feature of significant hurricanes is the eyewall replacement cycle. Basically what occurs is that a new eye begins to develop around the old eye. The new eye gradually decreases in diameter and replaces the old eye. With the profound increase in the number of extreme hurricanes the past few years there has been an opportunity to witness several eyewall replacement cycles.

When an eyewall replacement cycle occurs the intensity of the hurricane usually decreases. For example, a CAT 5 hurricane could weaken to a CAT 4 hurricane. The intensity weakens due to the gradual erosion of the inner eyewall. As the outer eyewall contracts and gains organization then the storm will often increase in intensity. Because of eyewall replacement cycles, a hurricane will typically not remain a CAT 5 for a long period of time.

Although an eyewall replacement cycle tends to reduce the category of a hurricane it also spread the hurricane force winds out over a larger area. This can cause a larger region to experience the extreme damage in a hurricane.

The forecast models have extreme difficulty with predicting an eyewall replacement cycle. Replacement cycles will usually happen with intense hurricanes but it is not known exactly when.

An important question is, "What causes these eyewall replacement cycles?" That is still being researched. Here are some possible explanations:

1. When the eye diameter gets too small then the eyewall convection is not able to stay organized. New convection and a new eyewall develop outside the old one where there is more space and energy.

2. Once the winds become too strong, turbulent breakdown occurs. This turbulence breaks apart portions of the eyewall which lead to its weakening. A new eyewall develops where the wind field remains less turbulent and more organized outside the old eyewall.

3. The band of convection outside the inner eyewall begins to rob the inner eyewall of moisture and energy. The inner eyewall weakens and the outer eyewall, which has greater moisture and energy, replaces it.

Here is an example of an eyewall replacement cycle. This radar image is of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 that struck the coast of Southeast Louisiana and Mississippi. Notice the circular blue color in the center. That is the eye of Katrina. Notice to the southeast of the eye is a clear area. Notice there is a second eye around the inner eye and the clear area. The inner eye is on the north end of the outer eye. That second outer eye was in the process of replacing the inner eye when Katrina made landfall.

(4) The eye wall passes near a stationary geomagnetic anomaly and gets pulled while the rest of the storm remains on track, thus re-diverting itself. Putting itself on track in layman's terms. Sorry if I made hurricane prediction more complicated than it already is.
Quoting 655. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Pinwheel!

Exactly!
Quoting 656. Pallis:
(4) The eye wall passes near a stationary geomagnetic anomaly and gets pulled while the rest of the storm remains on track, thus re-diverting itself. Putting itself on track in layman's terms. Sorry if I made hurricane prediction more complicated than it already is. They all can't be winners kid.
Have you heard?
Good evening everyone lots of things happening in space tonight and visible for us here on Earth.

1) COMET ISON NOW VISIBLE FROM SOME BACKYARDS:

This was taken from the Hubble Space Telescope on April 10, 2013:



Link



2) And a spectacular view of the Hunter's Moon and a lunar eclipse:



Link
Quoting 617. hurricanehunter27:
A bit random but I thought I would mention it. The USS Zumwalt is set to be commissioned tomorrow. This is the latest destroyer in the US arsenal and is set to replace Arleigh Burke class destroyers.



Currently armed with with cruise missiles/AA missiles and a brand new 2x 155mm AGS guns this is the single most advance ship out there. Something impressive about the 155mm AGS is its range. Shoots a 24 in shell 60 miles. Later runs of the ship are being fitted with railguns and free-electron lasers. Ship is not cheap however and cost 3.45 Billion USD per unit.


Zumwalt getting its final paint job before ceremony.





It looks like a floating space ship! Amazing.
Quoting 659. Patrap:
Have you heard?about the bird
Quoting 661. Jedkins01:


It looks like a floating space ship! Amazing.

Railguns and free-electron lazers.... legit
Check it out Caleb, new Oct 9th Hubble Ison Image

Its still very intact, with a good round Coma.



Potentially Dazzling Comet ISON Still Intact, Hubble Photo Suggests
By Mike Wall, Senior Writer | October 17, 2013 04:18pm ET


This is very good news as she is inside of Mars orbit, on schedule, on parabola..hopefully, we will get a Hale Bopp or greater sight for Xmas Day.
Quoting 642. Pallis:
Florida is being dragged at 1 inch per annum from Africa. The part that lifts, and erodes just as quickly, is Venice, Sanibel, parts of Port Charlotte, Pine Island, St. Petersburg, Naples to a lesser degree, and ect. The very well known 500 year deluge of Miami(now)is because, as the new lifts, the back end falls. Right now, we as a state are rising in the middle in some parts, but not others. I would contact your trusted real estate agent. The sea has risen by a very slight degree, but you blaming rising seas sinking Miami is very unscientific. If you Google Earth real close you can see the huge drop right off shore. If you peruse the state and local news papers in the last 100 years you will find things that were on land relatively recently in the bay of Biscayne. The land has sunk, and you can easily go north to Jacksonville, St Augustine, Indian River, or Jupiter to corroborate your own investigation. They taught us this stuff in the 80's. What in Jack Snot are they teaching you kids now'a'days?
Science advances, and sea level rise and its projected impact on Florida are being studied intensely. I get my information from reports on current research, and not from history books about the 1980s. Subsidence,rise, and erosion are well understood, and included in the science.

I learned to do my research in libraries while I attended elementary school in Chicago in the 1950's, carried those skills into high school and college, and also used them as a research technician many years ago. And then I transferred those acquired skills vigorously and rigorously to the internet as it became more and more saturated with information - both good and bad.

I'm not going to rebut you detail by detail, but the factors you mention are definitely included in the study of sea level "rise." Scientists may be smarter than you think - they don't miss much, and if they do, their colleagues will trash them in the peer review process.

Florida Atlantic University%u2019s Center for Environmental Studies last year held a conference on the subject. Here's part of the summary on that event:

Session One: Sea Level Rise and Florida: %u201CA Complex and Unique Relationship%u201D

The highlights of the session included current sea level rise rates, potential acceleration, and impacts that are already being felt.

- Sea level is rising and it is expected to accelerate. During much of the last century the global rate of rise is about 1.8mm per year. Since 1990 it has been 3.1 mm per year.

- The state has a high percentage of the nations risk due to these reasons:

- In the US, 4.9 million people live below an elevation of 4 feet, 2.4 million of which are in Florida;

- There are 107 towns and cities in Florida in which over half of the residents live below 4 feet in elevation (Strauss, 2012).

- The limestone geology causes a rapid interaction between rising sea water along the coast, potentially impacting municipal well fields.

Florida has current and future problems. Current impacts in Southeast Florida include: reduction in capacity of flood control structures (some of which are already experiencing impacts during high tide), salt water intrusion towards fresh water well fields (South Florida's primary source of drinking water), and the landward migration of fresh water wetlands that may experience peat collapse along the coast.

Edit: Use Google to search for sea level rise and Miami or Florida, and you will find a wealth of information on the subject.
Beautiful satellite presentation.
If one would like a great story of climate change, step up and do a Thesis on the Maldives as they are the ones being impacted now.

They need to move residents now, and have.

Its a social and dynamic situation that layer the rising water, tenfold.

It would do them and the World a great service.

Think about it.


After all, we have the gift to think, create, Build, but also destroy and make War like a fine Art.

The World needs it young minds as never before.

Time is not on yer side.

We need to break the cycle, or the cycle will break us..without hesitation, or thought, let alone care.

Published on Apr 9, 2012
DemocracyNow.org - In part two of our interview with ousted president of the Maldives, Mohamed Nasheed, he describes the battle for democracy in his country after he was forced out at gunpoint in February. To his surprise, the United States instantly recognized the man who took his place, former dictator Maumoon Abdul Gayoom. Nasheed was a longtime pro-democracy activist who was jailed for six years under Gayoom's rule. The coup became news across the globe in part because Nasheed has become an internationally recognized leader in the effort to address the root causes of climate change. The Maldives rise just 1.3 meters above sea level, making his nation and other island states extremely vulnerable from rising sea waters due to global warming. We also speak with Jon Shenk, director of a new documentary about Nasheed's life, "The Island President," which is now playing in theaters.

To watch the complete independent, weekday news hour, read the transcript and download the podcast, please visit http://www.democracynow.org


It's a bird, it's a plane, it's a UFO, it's a swarm of bees, no it's an explosion from a mortar that was being tested for an upcoming fireworks display. :P



Link
Quoting 661. Jedkins01:


It looks like a floating space ship! Amazing.


While I'm glad we have the technology, would be nice if the other countries, whose shipping lanes we protect, would kick in a little towards that 3.45B price tag. They get the benefit, we run the deficit.


Im looking thru, a Hole in the Sky..


I'm looking through a hole in the sky
I'm seeing nowhere through the eyes of a lie
I'm getting closer to the end of the line
I'm living easy where the sun doesn't shine

I'm living in a room without any view
I'm living free because the rent's never due
The synonyms of all the things that I've said
Are just the riddles that are built in my head

Hole in the sky, gateway to Heaven Window in time, through it I fly

I'm seeing the stars that disappear in the sun
The shooting's easy if you've got the right gun
And even though I'm sitting waiting for miles I don't believe there's any future in cars

Hole in the sky, gateway to Heaven
Window in time, through it I fly

I've watched the dogs of war enjoying their feast
I've seen the western world go down in the east
The food of love became the greed of our time
But now we're living on the profits of crime



Quoting 668. GTstormChaserCaleb:
It's a bird, it's a plane, it's a UFO, it's a swarm of bees, no it's an explosion from a mortar that was being tested for an upcoming fireworks display. :P



Link
Quoting 631. whitewabit:


And in the short term

Quoting 623. ncstorm:
long range..but exciting to see..

18z GFS snow depth map







Has Missouri ever had snow like that in October? I'm skeptical but hope it comes true. Typhoons in the western Pacific sometimes trigger cold outbreaks here a week or so after moving into the temperate zone. Francisco's ghost?
Quoting 668. GTstormChaserCaleb:
It's a bird, it's a plane, it's a UFO, it's a swarm of bees, no it's an explosion from a mortar that was being tested for an upcoming fireworks display. :P



Link




It was a King Kong Smoke Ring


95W INVEST CMC model.. (Lekima?!)
Issue appears to be dry air.



Typhoon 26W FRANSISCO

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 OCT 2013 Time : 010000 UTC
Lat : 16:27:41 N Lon : 140:10:49 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 929.2mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.2 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : +13.8C Cloud Region Temp : -72.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 128km
- Environmental MSLP : 1004mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 20.1 degrees


Quoting 665. Xulonn:
Science advances, and sea level rise and its projected impact on Florida are being studied intensely. I get my information from reports on current research, and not from history books about the 1980s. Subsidence,rise, and erosion are well understood, and included in the science.

I learned to do my research in libraries while I attended elementary school in Chicago in the 1950's, carried those skills into high school and college, and also used them as a research technician many years ago. And then I transferred those acquired skills vigorously and rigorously to the internet as it became more and more saturated with information - both good and bad.

I'm not going to rebut you detail by detail, but the factors you mention are definitely included in the study of sea level "rise." Scientists may be smarter than you think - they don't miss much, and if they do, their colleagues will trash them in the peer review process.

Florida Atlantic University%u2019s Center for Environmental Studies last year held a conference on the subject. Here's part of the summary on that event:

Session One: Sea Level Rise and Florida: %u201CA Complex and Unique Relationship%u201D

The highlights of the session included current sea level rise rates, potential acceleration, and impacts that are already being felt.

- Sea level is rising and it is expected to accelerate. During much of the last century the global rate of rise is about 1.8mm per year. Since 1990 it has been 3.1 mm per year.

- The state has a high percentage of the nations risk due to these reasons:

- In the US, 4.9 million people live below an elevation of 4 feet, 2.4 million of which are in Florida;

- There are 107 towns and cities in Florida in which over half of the residents live below 4 feet in elevation (Strauss, 2012).

- The limestone geology causes a rapid interaction between rising sea water along the coast, potentially impacting municipal well fields.

Florida has current and future problems. Current impacts in Southeast Florida include: reduction in capacity of flood control structures (some of which are already experiencing impacts during high tide), salt water intrusion towards fresh water well fields (South Florida's primary source of drinking water), and the landward migration of fresh water wetlands that may experience peat collapse along the coast.

Edit: Use Google to search for sea level rise and Miami or Florida, and you will find a wealth of information on the subject.
You really did not rebut me at all. Eloquent presentation though. You were good in English, and possibly Literature. My learning was not just by book. I dig. That is the difference. I hope that you can equate that strata is a factor in sea level rise, otherwise it is a moot point. I am also suggesting you find the same strata up and down the coast and figure out why it is all bendy. I could tell you, but I would ruin your excitement of discovery. Two sciences coming together on one blog ... aahhAAahuaH!
Certainly deserves classification.

SOUTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0210 UTC SAT OCT 19 2013

A. Tropical disturbance.

B. 18/2332Z.

C. 11.8S.

D. 166.0E.

E. Mtsat.

F. T2.0/2.0/d1.0/12 hrs.

G. Vis/ir.

H. Remarks: Cdo pattern yields a data t-number of 3.5 while a .4 wrap would yield a data t-number of 2.5. Final T-number held to 2.0 based on Dvorak constraints. This is a very small system and may not be following the Dvorak constraints for speed of development. There is a greater than normal amount of uncertainty regarding the intensity of this system.

I. Addl positions 18/1132Z 12.3S 166.2E t1.0/1.0.

$$
DONALDSON
Francisco looks like it is on track to make landfall over Japan and another system looks to form right behind it per the GFS.

Quoting 681. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Francisco looks like it is on track to make landfall over Japan and another system looks to form right behind it per the GFS.

That's one of the craziest maps of the GFS I've seen posted.
Quoting 667. Patrap:
If one would like a great story of climate change, step up and do a Thesis on the Maldives as they are the ones being impacted now.

They need to move residents now, and have.

Its a social and dynamic situation that layer the rising water, tenfold.

It would do them and the World a great service.

Think about it.


After all, we have the gift to think, create, Build, but also destroy and make War like a fine Art.

The World needs it young minds as never before.

Time is not on yer side.

We need to break the cycle, or the cycle will break us..without hesitation, or thought, let alone care.

Published on Apr 9, 2012
DemocracyNow.org - In part two of our interview with ousted president of the Maldives, Mohamed Nasheed, he describes the battle for democracy in his country after he was forced out at gunpoint in February. To his surprise, the United States instantly recognized the man who took his place, former dictator Maumoon Abdul Gayoom. Nasheed was a longtime pro-democracy activist who was jailed for six years under Gayoom's rule. The coup became news across the globe in part because Nasheed has become an internationally recognized leader in the effort to address the root causes of climate change. The Maldives rise just 1.3 meters above sea level, making his nation and other island states extremely vulnerable from rising sea waters due to global warming. We also speak with Jon Shenk, director of a new documentary about Nasheed's life, "The Island President," which is now playing in theaters.

To watch the complete independent, weekday news hour, read the transcript and download the podcast, please visit http://www.democracynow.org


Not our business. I am well aware that the Maldives are sinking and that is a natural process. This is proven by the fact that explorers noticed the cliffs getting shorter just like Wales. Scotland is shooting out of the water at an exponential rate. No one here seems to realize that coastlines go up and down, sometimes on a regular basis. Scotland is rising because the huge ice sheet that pushed it down has melted a long time ago. Isostatic rebound would be the term.
Quoting 682. washingtonian115:
That's one of the craziest maps of the GFS I've seen posted.
My professor showed me this website.

Here is the Atlantic and part of EPAC.


Note this is from yesterday. Still waiting for a Terra/Aqua pass over Francisco.
Quoting 683. Pallis:
Not our business. I am well aware that the Maldives are sinking and that is a natural process. This is proven by the fact that explorers noticed the cliffs getting shorter just like Wales. Scotland is shooting out of the water at an exponential rate. No one here seems to realize that coastlines go up and down, sometimes on a regular basis. Scotland is rising because the huge ice sheet that pushed it down has melted a long time ago. Isostatic rebound would be the term.
"Not our business"?

Really?

Well, even if one believes that--I don't--there's no denying it's our fault in part--and that makes it our responsibility. You know, leader of the world, the shining city on the hill, the chosen ones, and all that...
8 years ago now:

WILMA HAS DEVELOPED THE DREADED PINHOLE EYE. REPORTS FROM THE AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING WILMA BETWEEN 19Z AND
23Z INDICATED A 7-8 N MI WIDE EYE...WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
DROPPING FROM 970 MB TO 954 MB IN 3 HR 14 MIN. THE MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT AT 850 MB WERE 101 KT.
SINCE THAT TIME...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED ORGANIZATION...
WITH A RING OF COLD TOPS OF -80C TO -87C SURROUNDING THE EYE.
Quoting 688. TropicalAnalystwx13:
8 years ago now:

WILMA HAS DEVELOPED THE DREADED PINHOLE EYE. REPORTS FROM THE AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING WILMA BETWEEN 19Z AND
23Z INDICATED A 7-8 N MI WIDE EYE...WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
DROPPING FROM 970 MB TO 954 MB IN 3 HR 14 MIN. THE MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT AT 850 MB WERE 101 KT.
SINCE THAT TIME...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED ORGANIZATION...
WITH A RING OF COLD TOPS OF -80C TO -87C SURROUNDING THE EYE.
What a storm that was.

Also, check out this site. Allows you to browse through Aqua/Terra MODIS imagery,

Link
Ge, I thought you said it was because it was, er, down the coast and figure out why it is all bendy

I'm gonna go with the the published Science data on the Maldives, but thanks anyway.



Main article: Geography of the Maldives



See also: Atolls of the Maldives and List of islands of the Maldives



Malhosmadulhu Atoll seen from space. "Fasdutere" and Southern Maalhosmadulhu Atoll can be seen in this picture.


Maldives consists of 1,192 coral islands grouped in a double chain of 26 atolls, along the north-south direction, spread over roughly 90,000 square kilometres (35,000 sq mi), making this one of the world's most dispersed countries. It lies between latitudes 1°S and 8°N, and longitudes 72° and 74°E. The atolls are composed of live coral reefs and sand bars, situated atop a submarine ridge 960 kilometres (600 mi) long that rises abruptly from the depths of the Indian Ocean and runs north to south.

Only near the southern end of this natural coral barricade do two open passages permit safe ship navigation from one side of the Indian Ocean to the other through the territorial waters of Maldives. For administrative purposes the Maldivian government organised these atolls into twenty one administrative divisions. The largest island of Maldives is Gan, which belongs to Laamu Atoll or Hahdhummathi Maldives.

In Addu Atoll the westernmost islands are connected by roads over the reef (collectively called Link Road) and the total length of the road is 14 km (9 mi).

Maldives is the lowest country in the world, with a maximum natural ground level of only 2.4 metres (7 ft 10 in), with the average being only 1.5 metres (4 ft 11 in) above sea level, although in areas where construction exists, this has been increased to several metres.

However, more than 80 per cent of the country's land is composed of coral islands that rise less than one metre above sea level.

Quoting 634. stormpetrol:


Western Caribbean shear wise couldn't be any more conducive for tropical development, something needs to release the heat build up around here, it's stifling . I think Mother Nature will take care of it before long.


i agree its only a matter of time


only hurricane so far this year.
South Pacific AOI.
Quoting 630. MisterPerfect:
New Study: ’2013 ranks as one of the least extreme U.S. weather years ever’– Many bad weather events at ‘historically low levels’
By: Marc Morano - Climate DepotOctober 18, 2013 12:25 PM

'Whether you’re talking about tornadoes, wildfires, extreme heat or hurricanes, the good news is that weather-related disasters in the US are all way down this year compared to recent years and, in some cases, down to historically low levels.'

Tornadoes: 'lowest total in several decades'

Number of wildfires: 'On pace to be the lowest it has been in the past ten years'

Extreme Heat: The number of 100 degree days may 'turn out to be the lowest in about 100 years of records'

Hurricanes: 'We are currently in the longest period (8 years) since the Civil War Era without a major hurricane strike in the US (i.e., category 3, 4 or 5)' ( last major hurricane to strike the US was Hurricane Wilma in 2005)

www.climatedepot.com/2013/10/18/new-study-2013-ra nks-as-one-of-the-least-extreme-us-weather-years-e ver-many-bad-weather-events-at-historically-low-le vels
In addition to his many other well demonstrated knowledge deficiencies, Morono also shows us here that he fails to grasp the meaning of the term 'extreme'...
Screw GW my alumni (UCF) is beating #8 ranked Louisville 31 to 28 with 6 minutes left. GO KNIGHTs!
I see Patrap is finally behaving now.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
9:00 AM JST October 19 2013
======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 19.0N 152.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest slowly.

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 10.0N 164.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.
000
FXUS62 KTBW 182322
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
720 PM EDT FRI OCT 18 2013

.UPDATE (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
23Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCH OF THE CONUS
UNDERNEATH THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP AND BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING. THE
TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY PIVOTING EASTWARD FROM A POSITION EXTENDING
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SOUTHERN
"LOBE" OF ENERGY ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SWING ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND HELP TO SUPPRESS
SOUTHWARD THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED OUR WEATHER THE PAST
FEW DAYS. AT LEAST FOR NOW...THE RIDGE IS STILL HOLDING STRONG OVER
THE FL PENINSULA WITH THE DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SHOWN BY
WV IMAGERY STREAMING OVER THE CENTRAL/NE GULF COAST. SOME OF THIS
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH WITH TIME AND ALLOW FOR BETTER
CHANCES FOR A FEW SCT SHOWERS TO ENTER THE FORECAST DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...A VERY WEAK GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA THIS EVENING TO THE SOUTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN GA. THE WEAK GRADIENT AND
IMPRESSIVE TERRESTRIAL HEATING FOR MID/LATE OCTOBER ALLOWED FOR WELL
DEFINED SEA-BREEZES ALONG BOTH THE WEST AND EAST COASTS OF THE
STATE. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS JUST ENOUGH ALONG OUR WEST COAST
SEA-BREEZE TO FORCE A FEW VERY ISOLATED AND SHALLOW SHOWERS EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE WAS REALLY QUITE HOSTILE TO CONVECTION
TODAY WITH A VERY WELL DEFINED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 800MB ON
THE MORNING KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE. THIS SHOWS JUST HOW STRONG THE
LOW LEVEL FOCUS CAN GET ALONG OUR SEA-BREEZE TO OVERCOME THE
NEGATIVE FACTORS. IN FACT...THE HOSTILITY OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO
RISING MOTION AND THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THE FIRST ISOLATED SHOWER
LEAD TO DISCUSSION OF WHETHER OR NOT IT WAS A FIRE BEING DETECTED BY
THE RADAR. HOWEVER... ANALYSIS OF THE VARIOUS DUAL-POL RADAR
PRODUCTS CONFIRMED THAT INDEED THE RADAR WAS SAMPLING METEOROLOGICAL
HYDROMETEORS...AKA...RAINDROPS. GO FIGURE...WHEN FLORIDA WANTS TO
RAIN...IT RAINS.


REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...SUN HAS SET AND THINGS ARE COOLING
OFF. SEA-BREEZE WILL FOLLOW AND DIMINISH IN NEXT HOUR OR 2 ALLOWING
ANY LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE. THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR OUR LAND AREAS.
THE SLOW LOSS OF THE RIDGE STRENGTH BY LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH A
WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN THE
SOUTHEAST GULF MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS OFF THE COAST OF
SARASOTA/CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL SEE A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE AT A FEW MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL ENTER
NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND ALONG WITH OVERALL LESS SUPPRESSION AND
ANOTHER WELL-DEFINED WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE...WE SHOULD HAVE SOME
ACTIVITY ON THE RADAR FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO BE ENOUGH TO DO ANYTHING BUT BRIEFLY HALT ANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES. A WET AFTERNOON/EVENING IS CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTED. MOST
OF YOUR SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE 80S
TO LOWER 90S. ENJOY!



The Ruskin office threw in some humor tonight, I got a kick out of this! Its also nice to see odd weather phenomenon bothers them like it does me, lol.
TPPN12 PGTW 190025

A. SUPER TYPHOON 26W (FRANCISCO)

B. 18/2332Z

C. 16.2N

D. 140.4E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.5/7.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY B YIELDS
AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT OF
6.5. MET YIELDS A 7.0 AND PT AND PT YIELDS A 6.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
18/2017Z 15.9N 140.7E SSMS
18/2238Z 16.0N 140.5E SSMS


BERMEA
Quoting 698. Jedkins01:
000
FXUS62 KTBW 182322
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
720 PM EDT FRI OCT 18 2013

.UPDATE (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
23Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCH OF THE CONUS
UNDERNEATH THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP AND BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING. THE
TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY PIVOTING EASTWARD FROM A POSITION EXTENDING
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SOUTHERN
"LOBE" OF ENERGY ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SWING ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND HELP TO SUPPRESS
SOUTHWARD THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED OUR WEATHER THE PAST
FEW DAYS. AT LEAST FOR NOW...THE RIDGE IS STILL HOLDING STRONG OVER
THE FL PENINSULA WITH THE DEEPER MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SHOWN BY
WV IMAGERY STREAMING OVER THE CENTRAL/NE GULF COAST. SOME OF THIS
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH WITH TIME AND ALLOW FOR BETTER
CHANCES FOR A FEW SCT SHOWERS TO ENTER THE FORECAST DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...A VERY WEAK GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA THIS EVENING TO THE SOUTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN GA. THE WEAK GRADIENT AND
IMPRESSIVE TERRESTRIAL HEATING FOR MID/LATE OCTOBER ALLOWED FOR WELL
DEFINED SEA-BREEZES ALONG BOTH THE WEST AND EAST COASTS OF THE
STATE. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS JUST ENOUGH ALONG OUR WEST COAST
SEA-BREEZE TO FORCE A FEW VERY ISOLATED AND SHALLOW SHOWERS EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE WAS REALLY QUITE HOSTILE TO CONVECTION
TODAY WITH A VERY WELL DEFINED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 800MB ON
THE MORNING KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE. THIS SHOWS JUST HOW STRONG THE
LOW LEVEL FOCUS CAN GET ALONG OUR SEA-BREEZE TO OVERCOME THE
NEGATIVE FACTORS. IN FACT...THE HOSTILITY OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO
RISING MOTION AND THE STATIONARY NATURE OF THE FIRST ISOLATED SHOWER
LEAD TO DISCUSSION OF WHETHER OR NOT IT WAS A FIRE BEING DETECTED BY
THE RADAR. HOWEVER... ANALYSIS OF THE VARIOUS DUAL-POL RADAR
PRODUCTS CONFIRMED THAT INDEED THE RADAR WAS SAMPLING METEOROLOGICAL
HYDROMETEORS...AKA...RAINDROPS. GO FIGURE...WHEN FLORIDA WANTS TO
RAIN...IT RAINS.


REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...SUN HAS SET AND THINGS ARE COOLING
OFF. SEA-BREEZE WILL FOLLOW AND DIMINISH IN NEXT HOUR OR 2 ALLOWING
ANY LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE. THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR OUR LAND AREAS.
THE SLOW LOSS OF THE RIDGE STRENGTH BY LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH A
WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN THE
SOUTHEAST GULF MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS OFF THE COAST OF
SARASOTA/CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL SEE A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE AT A FEW MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL ENTER
NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND ALONG WITH OVERALL LESS SUPPRESSION AND
ANOTHER WELL-DEFINED WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE...WE SHOULD HAVE SOME
ACTIVITY ON THE RADAR FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS TO BE ENOUGH TO DO ANYTHING BUT BRIEFLY HALT ANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES. A WET AFTERNOON/EVENING IS CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTED. MOST
OF YOUR SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE 80S
TO LOWER 90S. ENJOY!



The Ruskin office threw in some humor tonight, I got a kick out of this! Its also nice to see odd weather phenomenon bothers them like it does me, lol.


Maybe they can teach these newbees at eh NWS in Melbourne how to make an extended forecast as I have had to write them this week on how bad their forecast was in the extended. They were showing 20% chances of rain when the HPC folks were forecasting an 1 inch plus of rain Monday thru Wenesday.


couple of possible cyclones in the coming days..

"Lekima"
"01R" possible near Réunion Island
Quoting 700. StormTrackerScott:


Maybe they can teach these newbees at eh NWS in Melbourne how to make an extended forecast as I have had to write them this week on how bad their forecast was in the extended. They were showing 20% chances of rain when the HPC folks were forecasting an 1 inch plus of rain Monday thru Wenesday.

That's highly rude and an insult to those who spent years in schooling to work at the National Weather Service...
Hope this degrades or skips Japan, else better moving the Chernobyl Steel cover to Fukushima...

Quoting 704. sunlinepr:
Hope this degrades or skips Japan, else better moving the Chernobyl Steel cover to Fukushima..


Ehh...no.


sure it'll weaken.. but NOT likely miss mainland Japan.
Quoting 690. Patrap:
Ge, I thought you said it was because it was, er, down the coast and figure out why it is all bendy

I'm gonna go with the the published Science data on the Maldives, but thanks anyway.



Main article: Geography of the Maldives



See also: Atolls of the Maldives and List of islands of the Maldives



Malhosmadulhu Atoll seen from space. "Fasdutere" and Southern Maalhosmadulhu Atoll can be seen in this picture.


Maldives consists of 1,192 coral islands grouped in a double chain of 26 atolls, along the north-south direction, spread over roughly 90,000 square kilometres (35,000 sq mi), making this one of the world's most dispersed countries. It lies between latitudes 1°S and 8°N, and longitudes 72° and 74°E. The atolls are composed of live coral reefs and sand bars, situated atop a submarine ridge 960 kilometres (600 mi) long that rises abruptly from the depths of the Indian Ocean and runs north to south.

Only near the southern end of this natural coral barricade do two open passages permit safe ship navigation from one side of the Indian Ocean to the other through the territorial waters of Maldives. For administrative purposes the Maldivian government organised these atolls into twenty one administrative divisions. The largest island of Maldives is Gan, which belongs to Laamu Atoll or Hahdhummathi Maldives.

In Addu Atoll the westernmost islands are connected by roads over the reef (collectively called Link Road) and the total length of the road is 14 km (9 mi).

Maldives is the lowest country in the world, with a maximum natural ground level oRapid Uplift: Maldives Reef Sea Level Curves: What About Palk ...
suvratk.blogspot.com/2009/05/maldives-reef-sea-le vel-curves-what.html‎f only 2.4 metres (7 ft 10 in), with the average being only 1.5 metres (4 ft 11 in) above sea level, although in areas where construction exists, this has been increased to several metres.

However, more than 80 per cent of the country's land is composed of coral islands that rise less than one metre above sea level.

Bit old, but this will do as a primer for you.Rapid Uplift: Maldives Reef Sea Level Curves: What About Palk ...
suvratk.blogspot.com/2009/05/maldives-reef-sea-le vel-curves-what.html‎
NFL Coach Bum Phillips has passed away at age 90.
There once was an ice age. There isn't one anymore. In fact there have been many ice ages. What that means is the earth's temperature goes up and down. That is natural. What isn't natural is thinking that if we give a bunch of money to the UN that we can stop nature. If there is indeed an emergency man will either adapt to change or perish - that too is natural. We do have the power of private enterprise and science to help us as well - but one thing I am certain of, the UN is not the solution, assuming there is even a problem.
Quoting 692. hurricanes2018:


only hurricane so far this year.



no its not
Quoting 700. StormTrackerScott:


Maybe they can teach these newbees at eh NWS in Melbourne how to make an extended forecast as I have had to write them this week on how bad their forecast was in the extended. They were showing 20% chances of rain when the HPC folks were forecasting an 1 inch plus of rain Monday thru Wenesday.


Well, keep in mind that its always better in a professional and a scientific sense to have a conservative forecast as apposed to having a "boy who cried wolf forecast".

But the Melbourne office does often seem to be more conservative than comparable offices. For example a great way to compare how different offices forecast is by clicking on the point forecast map very close to the boundary of either office viewing area.

I notice they tend to forecast warmer highs and lows for cold front passages than the Ruskin or the Miami office, and often project lower precip chances on average from days 3 to 7 than Miami and Ruskin.


Again, conservative forecasting is good and professional, but one must be careful not to go too conservative such that the forecast doesn't accurately portray upcoming events effectively until within a few days.

I've always felt that a fairly long-term conservative forecast is good as long as there is is an open forecast discussion explaining that rain chances may be bumped up significantly more with time, or a similar trend for temps.

Regardless though, calling them newbies isn't very respectful, I think they deserve better, right?

I can assure you as a student getting into the NWS is highly competitive and requires a very rigorous program in meteorology that is heavily quantitative along with a very high GPA and other requirements such as plenty of internship experience.

Any forecaster at a NWS office is deserving of great respect and should be considered an expert in the science of meteorology.

I've gotten to meet a couple of them at the NWS Tallahassee through the North Florida AMS chapter here at school, and I can assure you they KNOW their meteorology.
Quoting 688. TropicalAnalystwx13:
8 years ago now:

WILMA HAS DEVELOPED THE DREADED PINHOLE EYE. REPORTS FROM THE AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING WILMA BETWEEN 19Z AND
23Z INDICATED A 7-8 N MI WIDE EYE...WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
DROPPING FROM 970 MB TO 954 MB IN 3 HR 14 MIN. THE MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT AT 850 MB WERE 101 KT.
SINCE THAT TIME...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED ORGANIZATION...
WITH A RING OF COLD TOPS OF -80C TO -87C SURROUNDING THE EYE.


So that's where that meme came from!

Quoting 704. sunlinepr:
Hope this degrades or skips Japan, else better moving the Chernobyl Steel cover to Fukushima...

I have a feeling Tokyo will be on the right front quadrant of this one.
Quoting 709. Patrap:
NFL Coach Bum Phillips has passed away at age 90.


I heard it here first, now it's blowing up my Twitter feed. WeatherUnderground, your source for breaking weather and sports news.
Quoting 650. Hurricane614:


Thanks for that!

If he cited some sources, it would have been even better.
Quoting 688. TropicalAnalystwx13:
8 years ago now:

WILMA HAS DEVELOPED THE DREADED PINHOLE EYE. REPORTS FROM THE AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING WILMA BETWEEN 19Z AND
23Z INDICATED A 7-8 N MI WIDE EYE...WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
DROPPING FROM 970 MB TO 954 MB IN 3 HR 14 MIN. THE MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT AT 850 MB WERE 101 KT.
SINCE THAT TIME...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED ORGANIZATION...
WITH A RING OF COLD TOPS OF -80C TO -87C SURROUNDING THE EYE.


Has it really been 8 years? I remember going to bed at around 8pm with a Category 2, woke up with the strongest hurricane ever recorded and it was going to make landfall in my area.
I think were pretty sane 8 years removed from those Storms of 05 eh, CT?

What a ride 05 was,,sheesh.

From Cindy to Wilma.

One fer da books

Memorie's fade,
like looking thru a fogged mirror



Quoting 704. sunlinepr:
Hope this degrades or skips Japan, else better moving the Chernobyl Steel cover to Fukushima...

Here here.
You know it's downtime when we're doling out past advisories. Sheesh.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #28
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON FRANCISCO (T1327)
12:00 PM JST October 19 2013
=====================================

Near Marianas Island

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Francisco (920 hPa) located at 16.5N 140.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 150 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 8 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
180 NM from the center in north quadrant
150 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 18.5N 137.6E - 115 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
45 HRS: 20.6N 136.1E - 105 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea South Of Japan
69 HRS: 23.6N 134.6E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea South Of Japan
Quoting 715. Jelloboy:


I heard it here first, now it's blowing up my Twitter feed. WeatherUnderground, your source for breaking weather and sports news.
NOOOOOOOOOOO!
Quoting 703. TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's highly rude and an insult to those who spent years in schooling to work at the National Weather Service...


Cody get off your stick as they are newbees. Some of the regulars there are gone.
Quoting 703. TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's highly rude and an insult to those who spent years in schooling to work at the National Weather Service...


If you spend years going to school to be an engineer, and the bridge that you design fails, is it "rude" for people to outwardly criticize you? I have the utmost respect for NWS workers but the ones here in NJ especially are very guilty of letting the models do the talking and then have the forecast bust miserably. And I'm not just talking once or twice.
People are sensitive on here. Maybe all the sensitive people should go to Sensitivethug's blog. Anyways my post wasn't attacking them I was just stating their are new employees there.
----According to a report from the German Press Agency (DPA), a spokesman from the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that the country had received international pledges of $941 million to build the steel-and-concrete structure, and construction is set to begin in October 2011.

----The entire completed structure - weighing some 31,000 tonnes - will be pushed over unit 4 and part of its turbine hall using hydraulic jacks in a three-day sliding operation scheduled before the end of 2015. End walls will then be built to strengthen and seal the NSC, creating a means of confining dust and debris from dismantlement while protecting it from harsh weather.

-------However, the structure is not designed for radiation shielding: gamma radiation doses outside of the NSC will be about the same as they are now


Each run of the GFS gets slower with the front moving into FL.

The way global economies are heading, Soon there won't be any money to fund Human reliefs for errors, mistakes like Cherno and Fukushima.... and others...

Pictured: The colossal cap being lowered over exploded nuclear reactor to protect the world from Chernobyl's crumbling tomb

By LARISA BROWN
PUBLISHED: 19:56 EST, 27 November 2012


Staff work on the new structure at the site of the Chernobyl nuclear reactor yesterday. The first section of the colossal arch-shaped structure has now been raised


Project officials on Tuesday have hailed the arch raising as a significant step in a complex effort to clean up the consequences of the explosion.

Upon completion, the shelter will be moved on tracks over the building containing the destroyed reactor, allowing work to begin on dismantling the reactor and disposing of radioactive waste.

Suma Chakrabati, president of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, which is leading the project, called Tuesday 'a very significant milestone, which is a tribute to the ongoing commitment of the international donor community, and an important step towards overcoming the legacy of the accident.'
The shelter, shaped like a gargantuan Quonset hut, will be 843ft by 492 ft when completed and at its apex will be higher than the Statue of Liberty.
The April 26, 1986, accident in the then-Soviet republic of Ukraine sent a cloud of radioactive fallout over much of Europe and forced the evacuation of about 115,000 people from the plant's vicinity.







Quoting 731. Patrap:
Pictured: The colossal cap being lowered over exploded nuclear reactor to protect the world from Chernobyl's crumbling tomb

By LARISA BROWN
PUBLISHED: 19:56 EST, 27 November 2012


Staff work on the new structure at the site of the Chernobyl nuclear reactor yesterday. The first section of the colossal arch-shaped structure has now been raised


Project officials on Tuesday have hailed the arch raising as a significant step in a complex effort to clean up the consequences of the explosion.

Upon completion, the shelter will be moved on tracks over the building containing the destroyed reactor, allowing work to begin on dismantling the reactor and disposing of radioactive waste.

Suma Chakrabati, president of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, which is leading the project, called Tuesday 'a very significant milestone, which is a tribute to the ongoing commitment of the international donor community, and an important step towards overcoming the legacy of the accident.'
The shelter, shaped like a gargantuan Quonset hut, will be 843ft by 492 ft when completed and at its apex will be higher than the Statue of Liberty.
The April 26, 1986, accident in the then-Soviet republic of Ukraine sent a cloud of radioactive fallout over much of Europe and forced the evacuation of about 115,000 people from the plant's vicinity.









Pretty impressive
Quoting 724. wxgeek723:


If you spend years going to school to be an engineer, and the bridge that you design fails, is it "rude" for people to outwardly criticize you? I have the utmost respect for NWS workers but the ones here in NJ especially are very guilty of letting the models do the talking and then have the forecast bust miserably. And I'm not just talking once or twice.

I'm not sure why those two are being compared because that's apples and oranges...?

It doesn't really matter either way. Probably just should've ignored the comment.

...

Dry air is really wrapping around Francisco now:

Quoting 701. HadesGodWyvern:


couple of possible cyclones in the coming days..

"Lekima"
"01R" possible near Réunion Island

Maybe its because I am tired and when i'm tired I have horrible vision, but I can barely make out the country outlines.
Quoting 733. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm not sure why those two are being compared because that's apples and oranges...?

It doesn't really matter either way. Probably just should've ignored the comment.

...

Dry air is really wrapping around Francisco now:



Well then why did you make a big deal out of nothing?

Anyway GFS now stalls front of S FL with little if any cool down for C & S FL.
Quoting 735. StormTrackerScott:


Well then why did you make a big deal out of nothing?

Anyway GFS now stalls front of S FL with little if any cool down for C & S FL.

I didn't make a big deal out of anything. I simply stated that your post calling meteorologists at the NWS newbees that needed to be taught how to make a medium-range forecast was rude. Jedkins noted that it wasn't a respectful thing to say either so it's not just me.

But I'm moving on.
Quoting 733. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm not sure why those two are being compared because that's apples and oranges...?

It doesn't really matter either way. Probably just should've ignored the comment.

...

Dry air is really wrapping around Francisco now:



I'm just trying to poke a hole in your logic, like usual. Just because you worked hard for the position doesn't mean you're good at it, and yeah it's rude to criticize NWS Melbourne and say they can't make a medium range forecast. BUT I know you like to flaunt your good morals ;)
Quoting 736. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I didn't make a big deal out of anything. I simply stated that your post calling meteorologists at the NWS newbees that need to be taught how to make a medium-range forecast was rude. Jedkins noted the same thing so it's not me overreacting.

But I'm moving on.


Newbees as in new employees. Since when does newbees get taken as an insult.
Quoting 734. Doppler22:

Maybe its because I am tired and when i'm tired I have horrible vision, but I can barely make out the country outlines.


Reunion is near 20.0S 55.0E

Quoting hurricanehunter27:
A bit random but I thought I would mention it. The USS Zumwalt is set to be commissioned tomorrow. This is the latest destroyer in the US arsenal and is set to replace Arleigh Burke class destroyers.



Currently armed with with cruise missiles/AA missiles and a brand new 2x 155mm AGS guns this is the single most advance ship out there. Something impressive about the 155mm AGS is its range. Shoots a 24 in shell 60 miles. Later runs of the ship are being fitted with railguns and free-electron lasers. Ship is not cheap however and cost 3.45 Billion USD per unit.


Zumwalt getting its final paint job before ceremony.




Whoever wrote this is very confused. This is going to be a "naming" ceremony, not a launching. The vessel is still on the ways and only 60% complete. Almost none of the electronics or weapons system are installed. The 155mm long range guns, for example, have not even finished testing, and many of the critical electronic systems are still being tested (and failing) on a decommissioned Spruance Class destroyer hull. The ship is about a year behind schedule and, with some luck, will actually be commissioned for sea trials late in 2015. There's a reason you only see drawings of this ship except for the pieces which are resting on (but not connected to) the hull on the building ways. This is the most expensive non-nuclear naval vessel ever constructed ($3.5 billion, probably $4 billion with overruns) and also the largest "destroyer" ever built, at 600 feet long and over 14,500 tons. This is about the size of an average WWII cruiser and, because of its value to the Navy, will require its own task force to escort it and protect it from submarine and air attack. This the traditional escort mission of a destroyer. But the DDG-1000 class will actually act as cruisers. Because of the astronomical cost, only 3 of this class will ordered, essentially as showpieces, because having three vessels scattered throughout the world will never be able to give the concentrated firepower needed for shore bombardment.

Now you know where some of NOAA's potential money goes every year. :-)
Quoting 733. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm not sure why those two are being compared because that's apples and oranges...?

It doesn't really matter either way. Probably just should've ignored the comment.

...

Dry air is really wrapping around Francisco now:

If you say something that you know is going to provoke an opposite response, it's not very classy to run away with your tail between your legs.

Although to your credit, there was a follow up post.
Quoting 740. HadesGodWyvern:


Réunion is near 15.0S 55.0E


It's nearer 21.0S actually
Quoting 743. BaltimoreBrian:


It's nearer 21.0S actually


ya I realized it was a little further south
Quoting 742. KoritheMan:
If you say something that you know is going to provoke an opposite response, it's not very classy to run away with your tail between your legs.

Although to your credit, there was a follow up post.

....hence the entire reason I said I should've just ignored it in the first place.
Quoting 745. TropicalAnalystwx13:

....hence the entire reason I said I should've just ignored it in the first place.


...You shouldn't ignore it in cases where you're the one who started the discussion. That's the point I'm trying to make.

Even entertaining that philosophy within that context isn't particularly savory.
Quoting 745. TropicalAnalystwx13:

....hence the entire reason I said I should've just ignored it in the first place.


What was there to ignore. You jumped to conclusions saying I was insulting them when that wasn't even the case. You thought wrong Cody as well as Jedkins
Jinx alert! Will the EPAC finally see a major hurricane?

Reunion has 838,000 people. Quite a lot.
Quoting 748. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Jinx alert! Will the EPAC finally see a major hurricane?



Not before you graduate from Embry-Riddle!
Quoting 748. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Jinx alert! Will the EPAC finally see a major hurricane?



Has a better chance than the Atlantic, at least.

But then again, anything does.
Quoting 742. KoritheMan:
If you say something that you know is going to provoke an opposite response, it's not very classy to run away with your tail between your legs.

Although to your credit, there was a follow up post.
lol this post really make me laugh this can show how bored I am. I hope I might play pokemon x and y when I finish my quarter exams.The Ace of the NHemisphere might be save by the Wpac which has been pretty active this month.
Quoting 752. allancalderini:
lol this post really make me laugh this can show how bored I am. I hope I might play pokemon x and y when I finish my quarter exams.The Ace of the NHemisphere might be save by the Wpac which has been pretty active this month.


Wait, did you get Pokemon as well?
Quoting 748. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Jinx alert! Will the EPAC finally see a major hurricane?


12z ECMWF brought it down to 972 millibars. 0z SHIPS brings it up to 88kt in 120 hours. With low shear, a relatively moist environment, and a MJO/CCKW coupling, I don't see any reason this won't make a run at the strongest storm of the season. Maybe even major hurricane status.

Or, as Isaac suggested earlier, it will falter because this is 2013 and the term hurricane does not exist apparently.
Quoting 739. StormTrackerScott:
Cody better hurry up and get to bed before mommie comes in and turns his light off.



Did you see Cody's real picture I had in my blog? I took it down later.
Quoting 755. BaltimoreBrian:


Did you see Cody's real picture I had in my blog? I had to take it down.

I'm beautiful. :]
Quoting 683. Pallis:
Not our business. I am well aware that the Maldives are sinking and that is a natural process. This is proven by the fact that explorers noticed the cliffs getting shorter just like Wales. Scotland is shooting out of the water at an exponential rate. No one here seems to realize that coastlines go up and down, sometimes on a regular basis. Scotland is rising because the huge ice sheet that pushed it down has melted a long time ago. Isostatic rebound would be the term.
Everybody in science realizes that subsidence and lift are integral components of relative sea level. The fact the rate and amount of sea level rise varies across the globe is well known and frequently discussed in the science and the reporting of the sciences of AGW/CC.

You are the one with the limited perspective, Pallis. Science considers your geological aspects, but you seem to ignore all other factors. I'll bet you have never even read the Climate Change pages right here at Weather Underground where it says:

Factors Driving Sea Level Rise

Sea level rise is due to a number of causes, some of which may exert a more regional influence than others. These include:

Thermal expansion – As seawater becomes warmer it expands. Heat in the upper layer of the ocean is released quickly into the atmosphere. However, heat absorbed by the deeper layers of the ocean will take much longer to be released and therefore, be stored in the ocean much longer and have significant impacts on future ocean warming.

An increase in freshwater inputs from mountain glaciers, ice sheets, ice caps, and sea ice, as well as other atmospheric and hydrologic cycles due to rising global surface and ocean temperatures

Physical forces – Subsidence and lifting are associated with tectonic activity and the extraction of water and resources such as gas and oil. These types of forces don't actually change the volume of the ocean, only the relative sea level. However, these changes do affect movement over land, as well as estimates from satellite altimetry. For example, in Scandinavia's Gulf of Bothnia, the weight of glaciers had caused the land beneath it to compress and sink. Now that glaciers are melting and the pressure has been released, the region is lifting at a rate of as much as 11 mm per year. This rebound makes it seem like sea level is dropping even though it is actually rising by 2.1 mm per year (Milne et al., 2001).

Ocean current variations – Large, regional ocean currents which move large quantities of water from one location to another also affect relative sea level without changing the actual volume of the ocean. For example, el Niño moves water from one side of the Pacific to the other every three or four years. These large-scale variations also affect the relative sea level of certain areas. In normal conditions, trade winds blow across the Pacific toward the west. According to NOAA, the trade winds push warm surface water to the west Pacific, so the sea level is roughly 1/2 meter higher in Indonesia than it is in Ecuador. During el Niño years, this warm water is pushed over to the eastern Pacific.


Quoting 753. KoritheMan:


Wait, did you get Pokemon as well?
lol you look really eager of me getting one.
Such a difference....

Conservative 3PM : HENCE ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...PEAKING ON MONDAY.


Bullish 9PM : TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 53W IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BIG MOISTURE SURGE WITH PW
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2.5 INCHES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE INTO
OUR AREA LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON AND YIELD NMRS TSTMS WITH A SIG
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT.


Very strange... but interesting.
Quoting 758. allancalderini:
lol you look really eager of me getting one.


Nah, I'd actually love to play with you. Send me your friend code through Facebook or something. We'll set something up.
Quoting 748. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Jinx alert! Will the EPAC finally see a major hurricane?


No, it's 2013 so major hurricanes don't exist in the EPAC and ATL. :P

If it (the AOI) can continue to organize, remain in its favorable environment, and not do some stupid weakening for no reason episode, then this potential storm could very possibly become the strongest storm of the year in the EPAC or ATL.
Quoting sunlinepr:
The way global economies are heading, Soon there won't be any money to fund Human reliefs for errors, mistakes like Cherno and Fukushima.... and others...


I don't know what global economy you live in but the markets in North America, Europe, and most of Asia closed today at or near all-time highs. Oil is the lowest it's been in months. The US dollar is down against most world currencies, which gives those countries more commodity buying power. Agricultural commodity prices are continuing down, as are interest rates. If we have to have a disaster, the world's economies have never been equipped to handle it.
Well goodnight everyone. I'm on fall break, so going to take this opportunity to get some sleep and re-energize.
Quoting 765. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Well goodnight everyone. I'm on fall break, so going to take this opportunity to get some sleep and re-energize.
Fall break sounds fun :/ Honduras can never get the holidays right.
Quoting 760. KoritheMan:


Nah, I'd actually love to play with you. Send me your friend code through Facebook or something. We'll set something up.
Lol I would love to play with you but I have it confiscate until I pass my quarters that ends on Thursday 24.
Quoting 764. sar2401:

I don't know what global economy you live in but the markets in North America, Europe, and most of Asia closed today at or near all-time highs. Oil is the lowest it's been in months. The US dollar is down against most world currencies, which gives those countries more commodity buying power. Agricultural commodity prices are continuing down, as are interest rates. If we have to have a disaster, the world's economies have never been equipped to handle it.


The Pacific including the Hawaii, Mariana's, west coast and Alaska Fisheries are also closing everyday in all-time radiation highs.... What economy is going to put an end to those 3 reactors leaking and contaminating the area, for sure we don't know... Meanwhile the leaking keeps occuring

and Francisco is going to help in contributing with some clean water for the cleaning process...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI OCT 18 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
Quoting 769. Civicane49:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI OCT 18 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

Meanwhile..

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT OCT 19 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FIVE DAYS.

&&
771. BtnTx
A lot of rain is pouring down in the Houston area: wow!
Quoting 771. BtnTx:
A lot of rain is pouring down in the Houston area: wow!

Yep, the maratime tropical air is pushing over a warm front that is sitting right on the coastline and finding some elevated instability to develop into thunderstorms while being aided by an upper air jet streak.







The end result:

774. BtnTx
Quoting 772. 1900hurricane:

Yep, the maratime tropical air is pushing over a warm front that is sitting right on the coastline and finding some elevated instability to develop into thunderstorms while being aided by an upper air jet streak.







The end result:

Excellent response with graphics! Thanks!
The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days.

Jeff Masters


Has any of the models been reliable??
Quoting 775. AussieStorm:
The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days.

Jeff Masters


Has any of the models been reliable??


They predicted Ingrid and Karen's genesis with much accuracy.
Quoting 761. sunlinepr:


yep - beautiful sky tonight in the Florida Keys
Quoting 775. AussieStorm:
The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days.

Jeff Masters


Has any of the models been reliable??


It's been another good year here in the Fl Keys (since Wilma, Irene, Georges and Donna)
Quoting 764. sar2401:

I don't know what global economy you live in but the markets in North America, Europe, and most of Asia closed today at or near all-time highs. Oil is the lowest it's been in months. The US dollar is down against most world currencies, which gives those countries more commodity buying power. Agricultural commodity prices are continuing down, as are interest rates. If we have to have a disaster, the world's economies have never been equipped to handle it.


should that be(?)
. . . never been better equipped . . . ?
Man, Francisco is another wild monster loose in the Pacific.

Quoting 780. kabloie:
Man, Francisco is another wild monster loose in the Pacific.



wow - tight core kabloie
Quoting 779. daddyjames:


should that be(?)
. . . never been better equipped . . . ?

could be... but its true... no one seems to expect or budget for disasters.. even though several minor ones strike each year, and major ones every couple of years
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON FRANCISCO (T1327)
15:00 PM JST October 19 2013
=====================================

Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Francisco (920 hPa) located at 16.7N 139.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 150 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 8 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
180 NM from the center in north quadrant
150 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 18.8N 137.4E - 115 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 21.3N 136.0E - 105 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea South Of Japan
72 HRS: 24.0N 134.5E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea South Of Japan
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
15:00 PM JST October 19 2013
======================================

Southwest of Minami torishima
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 19.8N 151.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest slowly.

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 10.0N 164.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.
19/0832 UTC 16.9N 139.4E T7.0/7.0 FRANCISCO
Tropical Disturbance One and Two from RSMC Nadi..

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
21:00 PM FST October 19 2013
====================================

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 01F (1005 hPa) located at 11.5S 166.2E is reported as slowly moving. Position fair based on multispectral infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Convection persistent in the past 12 hours. Organization has slightly improved in the past 24 hours. System lies under upper diffluent region in a low sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA.

Global models have picked up the system and moves it westward with slight intensification.

Potential for this disturbance to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 is MODERATE.

System #2
------------

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 02F (1006 hPa) located at 4.0S 178.0E is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multispectral infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Convection persistent in the past 24 hours. Organization has not improved much in past 24 hours. System lies under upper diffluent region in a low sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA.

Global models have picked up the system and moves it west than southward with slight intensification.

Potential for this disturbance to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 hours is LOW.
No one had mentioned that Francisco is now a Category 5?

JTWC has it at 140 knots and they expect Francisco to intensify slightly to 145 knots.

Also, I think this little guy would get decimated by Francisco.
Here is my forecast for Sat might, next week

Rain heavy at times, low of 31 degrees. Why isn't this snow?

Want people to trust you? Try apologising for the rain

If you want people to see you as trustworthy, try apologising for situations outside of your control such as the rain or a transport delay. That's the implication of a new study by researchers at Harvard Business School and Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania.

http://www.bps-research-digest.blogspot.co.uk/201 3/10/want-people-to-trust-you-try.html

: )
208 homes lost to the raging fires west of Sydney. Most were lost on Thursday.



Holy Moly Aussie! I can't even imagine what that must be like.
96E up to 60%/80%.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THIS LOW MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. INTERESTS ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

Quoting 754. TropicalAnalystwx13:

12z ECMWF brought it down to 972 millibars. 0z SHIPS brings it up to 88kt in 120 hours. With low shear, a relatively moist environment, and a MJO/CCKW coupling, I don't see any reason this won't make a run at the strongest storm of the season. Maybe even major hurricane status.

Or, as Isaac suggested earlier, it will falter because this is 2013 and the term hurricane does not exist apparently.


The term "super typhoon" sure as heck exists though in 2013.
796. VR46L
W-PAC keeps on spitting them out

Sure is a shame that extreme weather was so rampant in 2013:
Link
Quoting 797. MarkMatis:
Sure is a shame that extreme weather was so rampant in 2013:
Link
Even more of a shame that Morano and his sycophants haven't yet bothered to look up the meaning of the word "extreme":
ex-treme: (ecks-TREEM) adjective (prenominal) 1 : Most remote in any direction; outermost or farthest; either of the two limits or ends of a scale or range of possibilities.
Good morning everybody!

Category 5 Typhoon Francisco:

Quoting 797. MarkMatis:
Sure is a shame that extreme weather was so rampant in 2013:
Link


I doubt the people in Oklahoma City would quite agree.
Quoting 798. Neapolitan:
Even more of a shame that Morano and his sycophants haven't yet bothered to look up the meaning of the word "extreme":

Can't let the facts get in the way of the story. Surely you realize that from all those TV programs by now? Why would you think Global Warming/Climate Change would be any different, since it is sold by the same folks?
Quoting 797. MarkMatis:

[...] http://www.climatedepot.com

Click image for more information.

Quoting 800. CybrTeddy:


I doubt the people in Oklahoma City would quite agree.

You might want to learn what "rampant" means. But then that wouldn't fit your worldview.
Beware of faulty, flaky Facebook weather forecasts
By Jason Samenow, Published: October 17 at 2:03 pm

Anyone can play meteorologist on Facebook. Build a page with a credible-sounding name, post some weather maps, get some friends and family to "like" it, and you're off and running.

In the last few years, the number of Facebook weather pages has exploded, many maintained by curators without clear meteorological credentials. Unfortunately this has led to misleading or flat-out inaccurate information spreading virally, especially around high-interest weather events, like winter storms (or possible winter storms).

...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weath er-gang/wp/2013/10/17/beware-of-faulty-flaky-faceb ook-weather-forecasts/
Quoting 803. MarkMatis:

You might want to learn what "rampant" means. But then that wouldn't fit your worldview.


Really? Is a personal shot necessary? Grow up. I'm aware of what "rampant" means having sat through the 2005, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, and 2012 Atlantic hurricane seasons, as well as having watched the Moore EF5 and the El Reno EF3, the April 27th, 2011 super outbreak, and the Joplin Tornado.

I've been fully aware of how inactive the tornado season has been, as well as the Atlantic hurricane season. But I've also been aware that the Pacific typhoon season has been the most active since 2004, that India just saw one of the strongest cyclones ever recorded in their basin (JTWC had Cyclone Phailin down to 918mb), and right now there's a Category 5 Super typhoon approaching Japan.

Of course, this has taken place not in the United States, which is where everything must happen for anything to be significant, so what does it matter?
8 years ago today: Many people would wake up to find that Hurricane Wilma had become the most intense tropical cyclone ever in the Atlantic basin (882 mbar.)
Quoting 806. Ameister12:
8 years ago today: Many people would wake up to find that Hurricane Wilma had become the most intense tropical cyclone ever in the Atlantic basin (882 mbar.)


Hurricane WILMA
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL CCA
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

...TO USE THE PROPER WORD...RELAYED...

IN ADDITION TO THE SPECTACULAR CLOUD PATTERN OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
...AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED 168 KNOTS AT 700 MB
AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 884 MB EXTRAPOLATED FROM 700MB.
UNOFFICIALLY...THE METEOROLOGIST ON BOARD THE PLANE RELAYED AN
EXTRAPOLATED 881 MB PRESSURE AND MEASURED 884 MB WITH A DROPSONDE.
THIS IS ALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VERY SMALL EYE THAT HAS BEEN
OSCILLATING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 N MI DURING EYE PENETRATIONS. THIS IS
PROBABLY THE LOWEST MINIMUM PRESSURE EVER OBSERVED IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN AND IS FOLLOWED BY THE 888 MB MINIMUM PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988. HOWEVER...ONE MUST BE VERY CAREFUL
BEFORE IT IS DECLARED A RECORD MINIMUM PRESSURE UNTIL A FULL AND
DETAILED CALIBRATION OF THE INSTRUMENTS AND CALCULATIONS IS
PERFORMED. SO PLEASE DO NOT JUMP INTO CONCLUSIONS YET...BE PATIENT.

WILMA IS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE THAT IS MOVING OVER
VERY WARM WATERS...TYPICAL OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND
WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SHEAR. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE
FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT...WILMA IS NEAR ITS MAXIMUM
POTENTIAL INTENSITY AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
MOST LIKELY...THE SMALL EYE WILL COLLAPSE FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT
WEAKENING OR SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLES WILL LIKELY CONTROL THE INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS
WHILE THE HURRICANE IS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
THEREAFTER...ONCE WILMA REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
ENCOUNTERS THE WESTERLIES AND HIGH SHEAR...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT
7 KNOTS. IT SEEMS THAT DATA FROM THE HIGH ALTITUDE NOAA JET
INGESTED BY MODELS CAUSED THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE TO SHIFT
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD FOR THE 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD. HOWEVER...NO CHANGE IN
TRACK IS INDICATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO TURN WILMA SHARPLY TO THE NORTHEAST OVER FLORIDA. BASED ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD BUT IS KEPT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE.
THIS IN CASE THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHIFTS BACK TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT
RUN.

IN SUMMARY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE CORE OF THIS
CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND
THEN SHARPLY TURNS A WEAKER HURRICANE TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD
FLORIDA WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. NO CHANGE IN WARNINGS
OR WATCHES IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0900Z 17.2N 82.5W 150 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 17.7N 83.4W 150 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 18.5N 84.7W 145 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 20.0N 85.5W 140 KT
48HR VT 21/0600Z 21.0N 85.7W 130 KT
72HR VT 22/0600Z 22.5N 86.0W 115 KT
96HR VT 23/0600Z 26.5N 81.0W 90 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 24/0600Z 33.0N 72.0W 70 KT
It does aggravate me that people use weather seen just in the United States to justify a position on their "worldview." (I find interesting though that my worldview is put into question based off events in the United States alone, I could have sworn that there are other countries out there) Both sides of the argument do this rather annoyingly. I've seen one component actually argue three years ago that because the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season was a hyperactive season then tropical cyclones must be increasing, when the EPAC and WPAC seasons both saw the most inactive on record.

But as we've just seen though, the other side is pretty darn good at omitting facts into their argument too, and they're even better with arguing that "well if [X] is happening in the United States, then clearly this is a world trend!" The 2013 Tornado season fairly inactive as to be expected with the setup seen, but it still was incredibly destructive. 2013 alone saw the Moore, EF5 tornado, the largest tornado ever recorded with the El Reno EF3*, and several other beasts.

The point is don't let your political leanings get in the way of logic and facts. And don't use numbers and statistics in terms of quantity to justify quality, the 2013 tornado season will be memorable just in the same way the 1992 Atlantic hurricane season has been.

*debatable, was an EF5 for a period of time.
Quoting 806. Ameister12:
8 years ago today: Many people would wake up to find that Hurricane Wilma had become the most intense tropical cyclone ever in the Atlantic basin (882 mbar.)


Love to watch that classic wobble (or zigzag) pattern of movement.
I bet guys were "its now going north." "It's now going south." "It's now going west."
Drats, only 8:49am ET and I've already gone off on a tirade. Here's Super Typhoon Francisco, which looks to be once again becoming better organized as a the "doughnut" look has resumed.

Quoting 806. Ameister12:
8 years ago today: Many people would wake up to find that Hurricane Wilma had become the most intense tropical cyclone ever in the Atlantic basin (882 mbar.)


WILMA was just under 200 miles from us when it did that wobble turn visible in the Satellite loop. Some huge seas on our south coast. Inundated some areas. Quite scary, considering we had been through Ivan just 13 months before. I was pretty shocked to see it went to Cat 5 overnight
SP
Quoting 800. CybrTeddy:


I doubt the people in Oklahoma City would quite agree.
Tornadoes have caused tremendous death and destruction the past few years. I hope I never go through one.. had a couple very close calls tho.
Quoting 808. CybrTeddy:
It does aggravate me that people use weather seen just in the United States to justify a position on their "worldview." (I find interesting though that my worldview is put into question based off events in the United States alone, I could have sworn that there are other countries out there) Both sides of the argument do this rather annoyingly. I've seen one component actually argue three years ago that because the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season was a hyperactive season then tropical cyclones must be increasing, when the EPAC and WPAC seasons both saw the most inactive on record.

But as we've just seen though, the other side is pretty darn good at omitting facts into their argument too, and they're even better with arguing that "well if [X] is happening in the United States, then clearly this is a world trend!" The 2013 Tornado season fairly inactive as to be expected with the setup seen, but it still was incredibly destructive. 2013 alone saw the Moore, EF5 tornado, the largest tornado ever recorded with the El Reno EF3*, and several other beasts.

The point is don't let your political leanings get in the way of logic and facts. And don't use numbers and statistics in terms of quantity to justify quality, the 2013 tornado season will be memorable just in the same way the 1992 Atlantic hurricane season has been.

*debatable, was an EF5 for a period of time.


Thanks for this and well said. We all have biases that influence our opinions, the hard part about science is putting them aside to objectively look at the problem.
Excerpt from the Miami NWS Disco...

MODELS SEEM TO BE IN FAIR AGREEMENT BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
SOUTH FLORIDA AREA BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO
BE A BIT FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION THAN THE GFS. EITHER
WAY...THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY THURSDAY. HOWEVER MODELS
CURRENTLY KEEP THE BULK OF THE POST FRONTAL DRY AIR WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA KEEPING THE SOUTH FLORIDA AREA RATHER MOIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
Quoting 810. CybrTeddy:
Drats, only 8:49am ET and I've already gone off on a tirade. Here's Super Typhoon Francisco, which looks to be once again becoming better organized as a the "doughnut" look has resumed.

Why it's always at night.
Could easily peak at 150kts. Doesn't get much better than this.

Re: 802


Typical LT post.
Quoting 801. MarkMatis:

Can't let the facts get in the way of the story. Surely you realize that from all those TV programs by now? Why would you think Global Warming/Climate Change would be any different, since it is sold by the same folks?


You're linking to an opinion piece supported by known deniers and at least one discredited scientist on a site full of crackpot pseudo science that is somehow claiming that a year where a limited and select number of weather events in the US can somehow be extrapolated to the rest of the planet, and that these limited statistics somehow prove that there is no decades long trends and, by corollary, there is no climate change?

If they handed out medals for mental gymnastics, these guys would be winning gold.

Quoting 819. PensacolaDoug:
Re: 802


Typical LT post.


Not sure what Lactate thresholds have to do with this, I guess though my 5k run could be affected by it though. :P
Quoting 808. CybrTeddy:
It does aggravate me that people use weather seen just in the United States to justify a position on their "worldview." (I find interesting though that my worldview is put into question based off events in the United States alone, I could have sworn that there are other countries out there) Both sides of the argument do this rather annoyingly. I've seen one component actually argue three years ago that because the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season was a hyperactive season then tropical cyclones must be increasing, when the EPAC and WPAC seasons both saw the most inactive on record.

But as we've just seen though, the other side is pretty darn good at omitting facts into their argument too, and they're even better with arguing that "well if [X] is happening in the United States, then clearly this is a world trend!" The 2013 Tornado season fairly inactive as to be expected with the setup seen, but it still was incredibly destructive. 2013 alone saw the Moore, EF5 tornado, the largest tornado ever recorded with the El Reno EF3*, and several other beasts.

The point is don't let your political leanings get in the way of logic and facts. And don't use numbers and statistics in terms of quantity to justify quality, the 2013 tornado season will be memorable just in the same way the 1992 Atlantic hurricane season has been.

*debatable, was an EF5 for a period of time.
If the Pacific takes up a third of the Earth, I would expect it to create more storms than the Atlantic on a general basis, but this is weather we are talking about.
Quoting 821. CybrTeddy:


Not sure what Lactate thresholds have to do with this, I guess though my 5k run could be affected by it though. :P





Guess again...
Quoting 822. Pallis:
If the Pacific takes up a third of the Earth, I would expect it to create more storms than the Atlantic on a general basis, but this is weather we are talking about.


Why would you expect that? Rarely, if ever, are seasons in the Atlantic active when seasons in the Pacific are active. However, I have no doubt though the season in the Atlantic would have been active if it wasn't for the lack of vertical instability in the MDR.

Quoting 823. PensacolaDoug:





Guess again...


I'm sure LT stands for that greatly offensive term you like to throw at people on the left. Am I getting warmer?
Quoting 801. MarkMatis:

Can't let the facts get in the way of the story. Surely you realize that from all those TV programs by now? Why would you think Global Warming/Climate Change would be any different, since it is sold by the same folks?



393 ppm
Quoting 819. PensacolaDoug:
Re: 802


Typical LT post.

Quoting 825. Naga5000:



I'm sure LT stands for that greatly offensive term you like to throw at people on the left. Am I getting warmer?

Quoting 820. Xyrus2000:


You're linking to an opinion piece supported by known deniers and at least one discredited scientist on a site full of crackpot pseudo science that is somehow claiming that a year where a limited and select number of weather events in the US can somehow be extrapolated to the rest of the planet, and that these limited statistics somehow prove that there is no decades long trends and, by corollary, there is no climate change?

If they handed out medals for mental gymnastics, these guys would be winning gold.



Quoting 827. CybrTeddy:









As long as I get to be Moe, we're good.
Quoting 800. CybrTeddy:


I doubt the people in Oklahoma City would quite agree.


I graduated from Moore High School. I lived just S.W. of OKC for many years.

Living in central Oklahoma, you're at a high risk of tornadoes. I believe OKC has been hit by more tornadoes than any other city.
Every home in OKC/Moore area should have a tornado shelter. I wouldn't feel safe without one.


Brent McRoberts of Texas A&M University.
“Oklahoma City is almost in a class by itself when it comes to tornado activity,” he explains. “According to the local National Weather Service office, the capital of Oklahoma has been hit more than 140 times since records began in the early 1890s. OKC added to that total this month when at least five other tornadoes hit just recently, and the deadly Moore storm on May 20 struck just south of Oklahoma City. There seems to be no explanation other than Oklahoma City is smack in the middle of Tornado Alley, and conditions in and around the town are perfect for tornado formation during the spring months.”

Article written by Jim Shay.
Please do not talk about each other.
Talk about the blog subject.
It makes it so much nicer that way.
JUST TO SHOW THE FACTS!
As the blog climate debate is continuing, I will chime in with this:

Link

835. NCstu
Quoting 806. Ameister12:
8 years ago today: Many people would wake up to find that Hurricane Wilma had become the most intense tropical cyclone ever in the Atlantic basin (882 mbar.)


wilma was beautiful. I'm glad she had the courtesy to stay away from heavily populated areas at that strength

This kid is reviewing the 2013 hurricane season.
I wonder if anyone who denies the real possibility of climate change chaos really ever read a summary of the latest IPCC report. I don't think it is possible to make the claims they do, if they actually read the report.
One things for sure, the experts have a lot to learn about predicting how active a hurricane season will be in advance.
Quoting 839. Sfloridacat5:
One things for sure, the experts have a lot to learn about predicting how active a hurricane season will be in advance.
Yes, and the trolls and others that predicted a dud season are going to claim that they were right. They were right, but by chance as they were for the most trying to engage others in arguing. If you examine those people, I'm sure they have not presented facts to back up their predictions.
B-O-R-I-N-G
Quoting 837. cruzanrum:
I wonder if anyone who denies the real possibility of climate change chaos really ever read a summary of the latest IPCC report. I don't think it is possible to make the claims they do, if they actually read the report.
True. And remember, that IPCC report was watered down, as they always are, by those wishing to maintain the fossil fuel-only paradigm for financial and/or ideological reasons. Imagine if the full scientific reality were allowed to be reported...
Quoting 842. Neapolitan:
True. And remember, that IPCC report was watered down, as they always are, by those wishing to maintain the fossil fuel-only paradigm for financial and/or ideological reasons. Imagine if the full scientific reality were allowed to be reported...
I have posted this before, and do not like being redundant, but when a certain subject raises its ugly head, I cannot control myself. Anyone who believes that big oil is forced by necessity to make enormous profits to meet demand is not only sadly mistaken, but have obviously overlooked the profit margins over the past 40 years. It taxes satisfactory verbal description just how bad the greed and power play within the fossil fuel realm actually is. One only needs to do a minute amount of research into the financial aspects of oil to gain a solid perspective on the enormous amounts of money that is available to manipulate everything that could possibly cut into " their " wealth and power....
Quoting 840. sebastianflorida:
Yes, and the trolls and others that predicted a dud season are going to claim that they were right. They were right, but by chance as they were for the most trying to engage others in arguing. If you examine those people, I'm sure they have not presented facts to back up their predictions.


This year's season will surely be studied closely. Hopefully that will lead to improved forecasting in the future.

I don't remember a season where storms had such a hard time developing in the Atlantic Basin. It didn't matter whether they were in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or GOM, shear, dry air, or dust did them in.
Quoting 843. hydrus:
I have posted this before, and do not like being redundant, but when a certain subject raises its ugly head, I cannot control myself. Anyone who believes that big oil is forced by necessity to make enormous profits to meet demand is not only sadly mistaken, but have obviously overlooked the profit margins over the past 40 years. It taxes satisfactory verbal description just how bad the greed and power play within the fossil fuel realm actually is. One only needs to do a minute amount of research into the financial aspects of oil to gain a solid perspective on the enormous amounts of money that is available to manipulate everything that could possibly cut into " their " wealth and power....
True that. (See: Koch Brothers. [Also here.])
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. A pleasant 59 degrees with a wind chill of 53 degrees. We had .33 of rain overnight. So nice to not be standing out in 100 degrees of heat in full sun watering the garden!

Japan surely hasn't had a good year. My thought and prayers to those affected.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: steak, eggs and hash browns, bacon and egg grilled cheese, Egg, Cheese and chorizo Quesadillas, Warm grapefruit and orange with toasted coconut, Baked eggs with tomato and feta, French Toast Roll-Ups, Canadian bacon , sausage links , cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
NSW bushfires: properties destroyed, man dies amid worst fires in a decade
A 63-year-old man has died while battling a fire at his Central Coast home. Firefighters from interstate travel to NSW to help as more than 100 continue to burn across the state.



Much more at
The Guardian
These toughs reach farther each time. This could spell trouble for many growers..
120 hours..


240 hours...
oops.
Quoting 834. JupiterKen:
As the blog climate debate is continuing, I will chime in with this:

Link

If Legates and Mitchell were simply ignorant where climate science is concerned, that would be bad enough. But at least one of the two is engaging in a deliberate misinformation campaign. Not cool, bro. Not cool at all...

(As an aside, did Anthony Watts post anything else today that you guys might be linking here? Or was the Legates/Mitchell piece the only thing?)
From Wiki (square miles info)

Japan - 145
Montana - 147
California - 164

Also, Japan's latitude is similar to the U.S.
Quoting 845. Neapolitan:
True that. (See: Koch Brothers. [Also here.])
I dont even have words.....none that I can post..

Many folks will be gathering winter apparel with this coming our way..

120 hours..


240 hours..This could break records..

Next week's surface map (day 6). High pressure taking over, front clearing the GOM.
#849/834:
As Butch said to Sundance:
"WHO ARE THOSE GUYS?"
27W being mentioned in first paragraph

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
21:00 PM JST October 19 2013
======================================

Southwest of Minami torishima
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 19.8N 150.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest slowly.

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 10.0N 163.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.
Anyone seen Aussie here?

He may be affected by the Fires down under.
Quoting 834. JupiterKen:
As the blog climate debate is continuing, I will chime in with this:

Link



http://iceagenow.info/2013/10/life-climate-catacl ysm-box



Ice age now?

Really ?

; 0
Quoting 855. Patrap:
Anyone seen Aussie here?

He may be affected by the Fires down under.

Yeah, I've noticed he hasn't been around for a few days. I hope he's safe.
Quoting 792. AussieStorm:208 homes lost to the raging fires west of Sydney. Most were lost on Thursday.
My heart goes out to the Australian people caught in theses fires. I've lived in several fire-prone areas in California, but never had one directly impact me. Weather and climate play a big role in wildfires. In coastal California, rare hard freezes can kill the eucalyptus trees, presenting one type of fire hazard. OTOH, living eucalyptus trees can also make fires much worse than the native trees in these regions.

I actually took an upper division course titled "The Sociology of Natural Resources" at Berkeley in 1975, which was about how people and societies interact with - and react to - the natural environment and natural disasters. Among the readings was a study on how quickly people in Australia forget the big historic bush fires and go right back and build in the danger zones - just like they do in flood, tornado and hurricane zones, and on major earthquake areas like California San Andreas fault that runs from Los Angeles to San Francisco.

Quoting the "Berkeleyside" a local news website:
In 1973, [the year after a big freeze killed over 5 million eucalyptus trees in the Berkeley-Oakland hills] H.H. Biswell, professor of forestry and conservation at UC Berkeley, [one year before I transferred into Berkeley as a Conservation major] made this prophetic statement: %u201CWhen eucalyptus waste catches fire, an updraft is created and strong winds may blow flaming bark for a great distance. I think the eucalyptus is the worst tree anywhere as far as fire hazard is concerned. If some of that flaming bark should be blown on to shake roofs in the hills we might have a firestorm that would literally suck the roofs off the houses. People might be trapped.%u201D

Biswell was absolutely right. Eucalyptus, planted by land speculators, along with equally flammable Monterey pines, have been implicated in several disastrous conflagrations in the East Bay hills, especially the deadly 1991 firestorm that took 25 lives, destroyed more than 3,000 homes and cost $1.5 billion.]


Aussie, one of the things my former - and beloved - home of California shares with Australia is the danger of suburban firestorms. I was still living in the San Francisco Bay Area when the 1991 Oakland Firestorm occurred, but across the Bay in Marin County north of the famous Golden Gate Bridge. The Oakland hills, where I had lived in a couple of different rental houses over the years, had literally "millions" of easily ignited and fierce burning eucalyptus trees - mostly blue gum. The seeds had been brought to California and widely planted in the 19th century by greedy entrepreneurs who were unaware that the wood twists and cracks, and has little commercial value.

One of the rental houses in which I had lived, as well as the houses of several friends, were destroyed in that fire. These huge suburban fires are a horrible nightmare for many people.

Quoting 856. Patrap:


http://iceagenow.info/2013/10/life-climate-catacl ysm-box



Ice age now?

Really ?

; 0
I read about a sudden shift in the Gulf Stream could affect the climate drastically....I know the stream well, and is a huge player when it comes to weather. We were actually late with scheduled shipments because of the giant eddies that slowed our speed more than once. Edit...I do not believe a large shift in da stream would throw us into an Ice Age tho..
Aussie posted overnight---check post 792--
Quoting 849. Neapolitan:
If Legates and Mitchell were simply ignorant where climate science is concerned, that would be bad enough. But at least one of the two is engaging in a deliberate misinformation campaign. Not cool, bro. Not cool at all...

(As an aside, did Anthony Watts post anything else today that you guys might be linking here? Or was the Legates/Mitchell piece the only thing?)


Climatology Professor, David Legates, fails Climatology 101 at WUWT

I copied a few images that Sou used to thoroughly destroy the WTFUWT post:


There is no "absence of warming" over the last 16 years. Take a look for yourself:




Fig 3.21 Source: IPCC AR5 WG1

Ocean heat content is increasing

Source: NOAA/NODC



Source: NOAA/NODC

I realized you had linked to Sou, but I think the images are worthwhile

Good morning everyone...I'm looking forward to this cold weather outbreak, don't let me down now.



TWC was this showing that we may be looking at a nor Ester some time next week or weekend i think the gfs was showing it
Quoting 862. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Good morning everyone...I'm looking forward to this cold weather outbreak, don't let me down now.




You're kidding. I cannot see snow in Louisiana.
Quoting 801. MarkMatis:

Can't let the facts get in the way of the story. Surely you realize that from all those TV programs by now? Why would you think Global Warming/Climate Change would be any different, since it is sold by the same folks?
Because it's backed by hard science - very strong peer-reviewed evidence and verifiable facts??

Scientists don't "sell" things, and in fact have been criticized for not being adamant and outspoken enough about the reality of the dangers to human civilization from AGW/CC.

I don't know the details of your stance on AGW/CC and the science that supports if, but if you are a conspiracy theorist, reality is irrelevant. And there cannot be a viable conversation with you on the subject.
Quoting 862. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Good morning everyone...I'm looking forward to this cold weather outbreak, don't let me down now.





More excited about the one in 124 hours. Please verify.
Another Category 5.

I'm late to the party, I know.

The big three of 2008...anyone remember them? I was not into tracking hurricanes back then, but i did hear a lot about those "big three"...
Quoting 866. CybrTeddy:


More excited about the one in 124 hours. Please verify.

I hate cold...and for my area the prediction is temperatures in the high 40s to low 50s. No thank you.
The Great Lakes and Northeast region will get their first taste of winter this upcoming week as temperatures plummet. With a warm Great Lakes, this is a good setup for lake-effect snowfall as a clipper moves across the region. The 0z ECMWF paints the aforementioned area in blue and purple over the next 10 days:



Meanwhile, the 0z ECMWF also develops Invest 96E into a major hurricane, but not until later in the run this time.



The 6z GFS trended weaker with Invest 96E, though the primary cause seems to be land interaction.

Quoting 856. Patrap:


http://iceagenow.info/2013/10/life-climate-catacl ysm-box



Ice age now?

Really ?

; 0


From Hotwhopper:

"An ice age isn't due for at least 50,000 years, even without AGW

If Willis had bothered to read any science he might have come across this paper from Berger and Loutre in Science. They calculate that even without global warming, Earth wouldn't start getting cold for at least another 50,000 years. That's because of the calculated insolation in future years. Here is a diagram from their paper:"

Long-term variations of eccentricity (top), June insolation at 65°N (middle), and simulated Northern Hemisphere ice volume (increasing downward) (bottom) for 200,000 years before the present to 130,000 from now. Time is negative in the past and positive in the future. For the future, three CO2 scenarios were used: last glacial-interglacial values (solid line), a human-induced concentration of 750 ppmv (dashed line), and a constant concentration of 210 ppmv (dotted line). Simulation results from (13, 15); eccentricity and insolation from (19).


Archer and Grananopolski say:

"We predict that a carbon release from fossil fuels or methane hydrate deposits of 5000 Gton C could prevent glaciation for the next 500,000 years, until after not one but two 400 kyr cycle eccentricity minima. The duration and intensity of the projected interglacial period are longer than have been seen in the last 2.6 million years."


A movable trigger: Fossil fuel CO2 and the onset of the next glaciation-David Archer1, Andrey Ganopolski
DOI: 10.1029/2004GC000891


Waiting for my first winter storm. And I may not have to wait for long. I'm hoping the clipper system coming down will be bigger and more southward than thought, but we will see.
Quoting 801. MarkMatis:

Can't let the facts get in the way of the story. Surely you realize that from all those TV programs by now? Why would you think Global Warming/Climate Change would be any different, since it is sold by the same folks?

Yep. They're the folks that know the difference between the US and the entire Earth --unlike Morano...and his fellow travelers.
Quoting 819. PensacolaDoug:
Re: 802
Typical LT post.
Ah, yes - Xandra's cartoon is indeed "Literally True"

Good observation, Doug!
Super Typhoon Francisco and newly formed TD Twenty Seven:



G'morning from Central OK,

Well, it is a wee bit cold outside - we actually dipped below freezing last night for a number of hours. Although early for the first freeze, not necessarily unusual. Reflective of the pattern we have been stuck in the last couple of years.

Although we saw some rain, not a lot. Especially for those in the SW and panhandle - where the drought continues - in some instances entering its third year severely impacting ranchers and farmers in those regions.

All in all, the upcoming week will be cooler than average with highs in the mid-60's and lows in the 30's/40's.

Have a good day. Catch you all later. Homecoming here, so a cool, but beautiful day for the activities on-going. Cheers!



Quoting 875. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Super Typhoon Francisco and newly formed TD Twenty Seven:





Francisco is killing 27.
Quoting 876. daddyjames:
G'morning from Central OK,

Well, it is a wee bit cold outside - we actually dipped below freezing last night for a number of hours. Although early for the first freeze, not necessarily unusual. Reflective of the pattern we have been stuck in the last couple of years.

Although we saw some rain, not a lot. Especially for those in the SW and panhandle - were the drought continues - in some instances entering its third year severely impacting ranchers and farmers in those regions.

All in all, the upcoming week will be cooler than average with highs in the mid-60's and lows in the 30's/40's.

Have a good day. Catch you all later. Homecoming here, so a cool, but beautiful day for the activities on-going. Cheers!



Have fun ours is in 2 weeks, just in time for the start of basketball season, the weather is looking nice then.
Quoting 870. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Great Lakes and Northeast region will get their first taste of winter this upcoming week as temperatures plummet. With a warm Great Lakes, this is a good setup for lake-effect snowfall as a clipper moves across the region. The 0z ECMWF paints the aforementioned area in blue and purple over the next 10 days:



Meanwhile, the 0z ECMWF also develops Invest 96E into a major hurricane, but not until later in the run this time.



The 6z GFS trended weaker with Invest 96E, though the primary cause seems to be land interaction.


Here's to hoping the 00z ECMWF verifies!
Quoting 851. hydrus:
I dont even have words.....none that I can post..

Many folks will be gathering winter apparel with this coming our way..

120 hours..


240 hours..This could break records..

Snow into Southern Arkansas by the 29th of October? That would tie the state's earliest record measurable snowfall ever, which would bookend nicely with this past May's snowfall event, which was the state's latest (and only May) snowfall ever.

That would be record-breaking. That would be unprecedented. That would be, well, extreme...
Quoting 879. wxchaser97:

Here's to hoping the 00z ECMWF verifies!


For both the hurricane and the snow!
Quoting 796. VR46L:
W-PAC keeps on spitting them out



LOL - nice pic of the ocean bottom, where's the spitting going on? How ya doin' across the pond?
Quoting 878. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Have fun ours is in 2 weeks, just in time for the start of basketball season, the weather is looking nice then.


Thanks! We will. makes sense that FL would perfer to do it a little later. Here, I think they need to bump it up a little . . .:)
While I have always respected Dr. Masters it worries me, no matter your side in GW, when he is promoting a TV program that is produced and present by the company that's paying the bills. Just how can his view be totally scientific?
Quoting 877. FunnelVortex:


Francisco is killing 27.
Not sure if that is TD 27 or a new system Funnel, but the GFS is planning on keeping things active in the WPAC.



Here is the forecast advisory on TD 27, not expected to last long, so that leads me to believe a new system showing up on the GFS:

Quoting 874. Xulonn:
Ah, yes - Xandra's cartoon is indeed "Literally True"

Good observation, Doug!
Oh, that's what it means? I thought Dougie was talking about either past NFL players (Ladanian Tomlinson; Lawrence Taylor) or the Larentz Transformation, though to be honest I assumed the latter was maybe a bit to science-y a title to lay upon us... ;-)
Quoting 874. Xulonn:
Ah, yes - Xandra's cartoon is indeed "Literally True"

Good observation, Doug!





Lol!
But no....try again?
Quoting 885. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Not sure if that is TD 27 or a new system Funnel, but the GFS is planning on keeping things active in the WPAC.



Here is the forecast advisory on TD 27, not expected to last long, so that leads me to believe a new system showing up on the GFS:



Sometimes I wonder how the people living on those islands deal with constant typhoon hits.
Quoting 880. Neapolitan:
Snow into Southern Arkansas by the 29th of October? That would tie the state's earliest record measurable snowfall ever, which would bookend nicely with this past May's snowfall event, which was the state's latest (and only May) snowfall ever.

That would be record-breaking. That would be unprecedented. That would be, well, extreme...





Finish the thought JL!


That would be........GW!
Quoting 880. Neapolitan:
Snow into Southern Arkansas by the 29th of October? That would tie the state's earliest record measurable snowfall ever, which would bookend nicely with this past May's snowfall event, which was the state's latest (and only May) snowfall ever.

That would be record-breaking. That would be unprecedented. That would be, well, extreme...
Reported!!

Sorry, Nea, but scientific accuracy combined with sarcasm if against the WU rulez. It is offensive to denialists, and they are a species on the verge of extinction - who therefore must be protected from criticism.

/snark
Wilma looping around with 160kt winds..

Quoting 891. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wilma looping around with 160kt winds..



One of the most exciting days on the blog. I think that was the only time when people were allowed to slip out swear words when the recon data started pouring in and weren't banned, because no words could better describe what we were seeing, other than "HOLY ****."
Quoting 884. sts100launch:
While I have always respected Dr. Masters it worries me, no matter your side in GW, when he is promoting a TV program that is produced and present by the company that's paying the bills. Just how can his view be totally scientific?


I am sure that TWC was well aware of Dr. Master's position on AGW and CC prior to purchasing WU. As his presentation and position on these subjects has remained consistent, and is supported by a scientific research conducted over the past 150 years, it it unfair to question Dr. M's scientific credibility.

He provides thoughtful analyses of weather events, and the ongoing impact we have on the environment, with clarity and without over-hyping of the facts.
894. VR46L
Quoting 882. daddyjames:


LOL - nice pic of the ocean bottom, where's the spitting going on? How ya doin' across the pond?



Hiya

Must remember to Imgur after capture CMISS products doh!!!

Doing grand , very busy these days and how are ya ?
895. yoboi
Quoting 889. PensacolaDoug:





Finish the thought JL!


That would be........GW!


Wonder who he will be for halloween....
Quoting 894. VR46L:



Hiya

Must remember to Imgur after capture CMISS products doh!!!

Doing grand , very busy these days and how are ya ?


Been busy myself - mostly with repairing the comp. So, been absent lately.
Quoting 889. PensacolaDoug:





Finish the thought JL!


That would be........GW!
You still haven't become knowledgeable the dynamics of the rather unpredictable Arctic Oscillation? And how it causes weather extremes? And how it is influenced by AGW/CC.

A good place to start learning about this very fundamental element of northern hemisphere weather is via Dr. Rood's current series of blogs.

Take off your blinders!

Expand your horizons!

Become scientifically literate in meteorology and climate science.

WU has so much to offer for all of us - it's right there in front of us for the taking.!
Quoting 895. yoboi:


Wonder who he will be for halloween....


Probably a co2 molecule.
Quoting 889. PensacolaDoug:





Finish the thought JL!


That would be........GW!


What does George Washington have to do with this?
I think it silly to try to relate every "extreme" event to GW.

GW/Climate change must be viewed in trends over time (not an independent event).
Quoting 900. Sfloridacat5:
I think it silly to try to relate every "extreme" event to GW.

GW/Climate change must be viewed in trends over time (not an independent event).


Yes, unfortunately both camps are guilty as charged. It is a long-term kind of catastrophic event that will occur. Unfortunately, disasters that evolve relatively slowly, compared to our lifespan, are the most difficult to acknowledge. And when the impacts are sufficient to convince almost the entire population (there will always be a percentage of individuals that will not be convinced by the evidence on hand), it will be too late to take any prudent steps to avoid the inevitable effects.
Quoting 901. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wilma: freak of nature - October 19, 2005

It's a shame you weren't here then. It really was an incredible night. Like many others, I stayed up all night watching the pressure drop precipitously. The blog was, rightfully, nuts.
Quoting 902. daddyjames:


Yes, unfortunately both camps are guilty as charged. It is a long-term kind of catastrophic event that will occur. Unfortunately, disasters that evolve relatively slowly, compared to our lifespan, are the most difficult to acknowledge. And when the impacts are sufficient to convince almost the entire population (there will always be a percentage of individuals that will not be convinced by the evidence on hand), it will be too late to take any prudent steps to avoid the inevitable effects.
mail daddy
905. VR46L
Quoting 897. Xulonn:
You still haven't become knowledgeable the dynamics of the rather unpredictable Arctic Oscillation? And how it causes weather extremes? And how it is influenced by AGW/CC.

A good place to start learning about this very fundamental element of northern hemisphere weather is via Dr. Rood's current series of blogs.

Take off your blinders!

Expand your horizons!

Become scientifically literate in meteorology and climate science.

WU has so much to offer for all of us - it's right there in front of us for the taking.!



LOL!!!

Doug to post in Dr Rood's blog ? I would be there with the popcorn . I don't think you realise what you are doing ? Or are things uninteresting now that Yoboi is the only Questioning regular voice these days
Quoting 902. daddyjames:


Yes, unfortunately both camps are guilty as chraged. It is a log-term kind of catastorphic event that will occur. Unfortunately, disasters that evolve realtively slowly, compared to our lifespan, are the most difficult to acknowledge. And when the impacts are sufficient to convince almost the entire population (there will always be a percentage of individuals that will not be convinced by the evidence on hand), it will be too late to take any prudent steps to avoid the inevitable effects.


Yes, but now the door is open to blame everything on GW. (record lows, record highs, earliest snowfalls, drought, flooding, etc).

I can only imagine if it snowed in Miami like it did back in 1977, everyone would point their finger at GW.

But I agree about the percentage of people who turn a blind eye to GW/Climate change.
Quoting 884. sts100launch:
While I have always respected Dr. Masters it worries me, no matter your side in GW, when he is promoting a TV program that is produced and present by the company that's paying the bills. Just how can his view be totally scientific?


I don't believe Dr Masters views on GW can be bought !! and that's what your implying ..
Quoting 905. VR46L:



LOL!!!

Doug to post in Dr Rood's blog ? I would be there with the popcorn . I don't think you realise what you are doing ? Or are things uninteresting now that Yoboi is the only Questioning regular voice these days


Questioning? What is there to question? We would much rather post news and info about climate and climate science than be forced to debunk all the nonsense that comes out of pseudo science blogs like Goddard's and Watt's. If reposting non science is questioning, we are in a boat load of trouble here.
Lorentz transformation
Are we doing 2014 predictions or did I miss that and we are now on 2015?
Quoting 907. whitewabit:


I don't believe Dr Masters views on GW can be bought !! and that's what your implying ..


When you don't agree with someone, imply some nefarious is going on.
Quoting 911. Dakster:


When you don't agree with someone, imply some nefarious is going on.


To be fair, it is often implied on here that Dr. Master's is part of some "conspiracy of the left"', promoting their "agenda", or NBC's "agenda", or TWC's "agenda", it's hardly rare.
Quoting 910. Dakster:
Are we doing 2014 predictions or did I miss that and we are now on 2015?

It was so "disappointing" this year that the malaise will take another year to fully dissipate.
Quoting 900. Sfloridacat5:
I think it silly to try to relate every "extreme" event to GW.

GW/Climate change must be viewed in trends over time (not an independent event).
I think it's silly, too. So I think it's a good thing no one remotely credible has done that. Wouldn't you agree? But doing that is, of course, quite different from looking at a large number of extreme events, and seeing those events increase in both frequency and severity. And it's also quite different from acknowledging that the changing climate naturally affects every single weather event taking place. That doesn't mean every weather event is extreme, of course, but it does mean that they're all playing in the same sandbox, so to speak, so it's logically impossible to separate the two, and there's absolutely no validity in anyone's claim that "Weather Event X was not influenced in any way by climate change"...
Quoting 907. whitewabit:


I don't believe Dr Masters views on GW can be bought !! and that's what your implying ..

I've seen him use TWC's winter storm names. That's proof he can be bought--because those names are just TWC hype. Edit: but that's a trifling matter.

I've already criticized the glamorization of tipping points. Because CO2 levels decrease only slowly through natural processes, the consequences of increased CO2 are built into the system before they are noticeable. The true tipping points pass unnoticed. We notice the consequences after it is too late.
Quoting 891. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wilma looping around with 160kt winds..

It is my theory that the sustained wind were higher than 160 kts.
Quoting 906. Sfloridacat5:


Yes, but now the door is open to blame everything on GW. (record lows, record highs, earliest snowfalls, drought, flooding, etc)..
Again, I've seen no one do that. If you have, please share with us, as we'd like to correct them on their erroneous statements.
rejoice florida,its coming..7-day for tampa bay area..
Quoting 915. bappit:

I've seen him use TWC's winter storm names. That's proof he can be bought--because those names are just TWC hype.

I've already criticized the glamorization of tipping points. Because CO2 levels decrease only slowly through natural processes, the consequences are built into the system before they are noticeable. Consequently, the true tipping points pass unnoticed. We notice the consequences after it is too late.
I use TWC's storm names, and TWC has not yet sent me any cash. The BBC uses the TWC names, too, and I'm so far unaware of any payment going to London for their doing so. Many other people--and blogs, and news outlets--use those handy names, too, and I seriously doubt they're all being bribed by TWC to do so. So, no, the fact that Dr. Masters uses them is "proof" of nothing--though it is evidence that he's smart enough to know a great idea when he sees it... ;-)
Quoting 916. hydrus:
It is my theory that the sustained wind were higher than 160 kts.


during any hurricane there can be pockets of winds much higher then those recorded at weather stations .. but would think that the duration of those winds would be short in comparison to the length of the storm ..

Quoting 915. bappit:

I've seen him use TWC's winter storm names. That's proof he can be bought--because those names are just TWC hype.

I've already criticized the glamorization of tipping points. Because CO2 levels decrease only slowly through natural processes, the consequences are built into the system before they are noticeable. Consequently, the true tipping points pass unnoticed. We notice the consequences after it is too late.

I would disagree about the "glamorization" of tipping points, as this does not imply that the impacts of passing these points will lead to immediate catastrophic events.

It simply is a point, that when passed, the impacts cannot be mitigated. Those impacts will unfold. Yes, over a long period of time, but essentially they will happen - regardless of what action is subsequently taken. Education about the fact that the negative impacts cannot be addressed by future reactions to any changes, dispels many of the myths that are promulgated by those more focused on the short term impacts.

We are talking about the future, but someday the future does become the present.
A serious blast of cold air for us in Middle Tennessee..
Quoting 916. hydrus:
It is my theory that the sustained wind were higher than 160 kts.

Probably. The recon plane left Wilma a few hours before it's estimated to have attained peak intensity.

Did Hurricane Wilma have 209 mph sustained winds? - April 28, 2012
Quoting 915. bappit:

I've seen him use TWC's winter storm names. That's proof he can be bought--because those names are just TWC hype. Edit: but that's a trifling matter.

I've already criticized the glamorization of tipping points. Because CO2 levels decrease only slowly through natural processes, the consequences of increased CO2 are built into the system before they are noticeable. Consequently, the true tipping points pass unnoticed. We notice the consequences after it is too late.


I believe you are you confusing policy and views ..

TWC new policy of naming storms and someone's views are much different ..
Quoting 919. Neapolitan:
I use TWC's storm names, and TWC has not yet sent me any cash. The BBC uses the TWC names, too, and I'm so far unaware of any payment going to London for their doing so. Many other people--and blogs, and news outlets--use those handy names, too. So, no, the fact that Dr. Masters uses them is "proof" of nothing--though it is evidence that he's smart enough to know a great idea when he sees it... ;-)

LOL
.
928. beell
The large, impressive Omega block centered just off the western coast of North America continues in the GFS model.

A "stuck" oscillation resulting in all forms of fall weather one would associate with a deep long wave over the eastern half of the country.


10/19 00Z GFS 500 mb height anomaly. Left to right, Day 3, 8, and 11
(click for full image)

Well this will remain to be seen. But we could be looking at 2 hurricanes, possibly 2 major hurricanes in the EPAC by the end of the month. Wonder what the MJO chart is looking like now?



Quoting 929. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Well this will remain to be seen. But we could be looking at 2 hurricanes, possibly 2 major hurricanes in the EPAC by the end of the month. Wonder what the MJO chart is looking like now?





and i see a 995mb low on the map way down there by MX that would bring us up too the T storm
Anyone needing proof of sea level rise, please go to Miami Beach... The tide is in and laping against the buildings along the coast.

I don't agree 'we' (humans) are the sole reason of GW - however, I also don't believe in poisoning the environment regardless.

Link-Miami Beach Street Flooding
Analogies to the effects of CO2: On a personal level, when do you notice the irreversible effects of poor dental hygiene? of smoking? of excess cholesterol? etc.

The point of irreversible damage passes quietly, unnoticed. I wouldn't be looking for tipping points in these story lines. (TWC wants to sell stories. We may call it news, but they are news stories. News without a story does not sell as well, and they know it.)
934. yoboi
Quoting 908. Naga5000:


Questioning? What is there to question? We would much rather post news and info about climate and climate science than be forced to debunk all the nonsense that comes out of pseudo science blogs like Goddard's and Watt's. If reposting non science is questioning, we are in a boat load of trouble here.



I post many times from NOAA NASA Dr Spencer.....and Curry sems to have figured what is going on.....Do I need to list more names??? I have plenty....
Look at the first sentence in Dr. M's blog.

"How does one tell the most important story of our time--the emergence of our great Climate Disruption--without boring one's audience to tears ..."

He goes on to declare he does not want to hype the science, but I think introducing tipping points is exactly that. Tipping points create a story line. It distorts the science.

Nobody wants to be told to brush and floss, not smoke, watch what they eat or decrease their CO2 excretion (consumption, lol). Then again, no one wants their teeth to fall out, die in pain as cancer metastasizes (or live off an oxygen bottle), or have a stroke or heart attack. They also don't want to watch sea levels rise and flood their cities, endure droughts or all the other ills climate change can wreak.
Quoting 915. bappit:

I've seen him use TWC's winter storm names. That's proof he can be bought--because those names are just TWC hype. Edit: but that's a trifling matter.

I've already criticized the glamorization of tipping points. Because CO2 levels decrease only slowly through natural processes, the consequences of increased CO2 are built into the system before they are noticeable. The true tipping points pass unnoticed. We notice the consequences after it is too late.


There nothing wrong with naming winter storms. I think you are one of the few people still whining about it.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 934. yoboi:



I post many times from NOAA NASA Dr Spencer.....and Curry sems to have figured what is going on.....Do I need to list more names??? I have plenty....


Listen Yoboi, Spencer's last publication on clouds was trashed by his peers:
"This simple model does not have a realistic representation of the Earth's oceans, which are a key factor in the planet's climate, and it also doesn't model the Earth's water cycle. One key aspect in the Earth's temperature changes is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is a cycle of the Pacific Ocean. Spencer's model does not include ENSO, and he assumes that ENSO responds to changes in cloud cover, when in reality it's the other way around.

There are some other key problems in the paper. It doesn't provide enough information for other scientists to repeat the study. When two other climate scientists (Kevin Trenberth and John Fasullo) tried to replicate its results as best they could with the information provided, they found quite different results (see the Advanced version of this rebuttal for further details). Spencer and Braswell's conclusions also only seems to work using the satellite data set they chose, but Trenberth and Fasullo found that using other data sets also changes their results." Link

Curry's current co-authored paper has also been picked apart for it's inaccuracies. (See previous posts on this subject in the current blog and on Dr. Rood's)

So go ahead, post whatever you'd like.
It appears Fransisco will make a direct hit on Japan .. frightening looking storm ..



My grandmother lives on an island in the intercoastal in Port Orange (in the Daytona area). She's been calling me and telling me that the waters have been anonymously high lately.

What causes the phenomenon of the high waters? I'm curious.
941. yoboi
Quoting 938. Naga5000:


Listen Yoboi, Spencer's last publication on clouds was trashed by his peers:
"This simple model does not have a realistic representation of the Earth's oceans, which are a key factor in the planet's climate, and it also doesn't model the Earth's water cycle. One key aspect in the Earth's temperature changes is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is a cycle of the Pacific Ocean. Spencer's model does not include ENSO, and he assumes that ENSO responds to changes in cloud cover, when in reality it's the other way around.

There are some other key problems in the paper. It doesn't provide enough information for other scientists to repeat the study. When two other climate scientists (Kevin Trenberth and John Fasullo) tried to replicate its results as best they could with the information provided, they found quite different results (see the Advanced version of this rebuttal for further details). Spencer and Braswell's conclusions also only seems to work using the satellite data set they chose, but Trenberth and Fasullo found that using other data sets also changes their results." Link

Curry's current co-authored paper has also been picked apart for it's inaccuracies. (See previous posts on this subject in the current blog and on Dr. Rood's)

So go ahead, post whatever you'd like.



I understand what you are saying but I disagree that I only post from what you deem crazy sites....
New blog up ..
Quoting 933. bappit:
Analogies to the effects of CO2: On a personal level, when do you notice the irreversible effects of poor dental hygiene of smoking? of excess cholesterol? etc.

The point of irreversible damage passes quietly, unnoticed. I wouldn't be looking for tipping points in these story lines. (TWC wants to sell stories. We may call it news, but they are news stories. News without a story does not sell as well, and they know it.)
Perhaps when your dentist he has to pull all your remaining teeth immediately to keep you from dying of periodontal disease? When you wake up after a stroke with half your brain non-functional? When you have a massive heart attack while sitting at McDonalds?

No, not all "irreversible damage passes quietly" and "unnoticed". Sometimes it really is just that sudden...
Quoting 932. Dakster:
I don't agree 'we' (humans) are the sole reason of GW ...
And I don't think anyone ever said we were. But we have been scientifically and soundly implicated as the primary culprit.
Quoting 899. daddyjames:


What does George Washington have to do with this?


Because his flatulence meter was waaay over the roof!!!
Quoting 934. yoboi:



I post many times from NOAA NASA Dr Spencer.....and Curry sems to have figured what is going on.....Do I need to list more names??? I have plenty....

More? No. Quantity isn't the problem. It is the quality of what you post with respect to climate that is lacking severely.
Quoting 944. Neapolitan:
And I don't think anyone ever said we were. But we have been scientifically and soundly implicated as the primary culprit.


Ya right...