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Dangerous Typhoon Wipha Drenching Japan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:45 PM GMT on October 15, 2013

Large and powerful Category 1 Typhoon Wipha is bearing down on Japan as the storm races northeast at 28 mph. Wipha is likely to be the strongest typhoon to hit Japan since Typhoon Tokage of October 2004, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. Wipha is merging with a cold front and undergoing the transition to an extratropical storm--the same process Hurricane Sandy underwent as it approached landfall in October 2012. While Typhoon Wipha is not as powerful as Sandy, it does have a huge area of winds in excess of 50 knots (57.5 mph), which extend out 130 miles to the left of the center. Since the center of Wipha is expected to graze the southern coast of Japan today, and the storm will only weaken slightly, a 100-mile-wide swath of Japan will see damaging winds of 50 knots, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. About a 30 mile-wide swath of Japan will experience winds of 75 mph (hurricane force.) Tokyo will be right at the edge of the hurricane-force wind swath. With many trees still in leaf, these winds will cause widespread tree damage and downed power lines. The counter-clockwise flow of moist, tropical air around the center of Wipha is meeting up with the cold front currently over Japan. This is generating torrential rains over large portions of the country, as the moist air is forced upwards over the cold front, making the air expand and cool, condensing its copious moisture. Radar precipitation estimates show that rainfall rates of 1 - 2" per hour were occurring near Tokyo today. Heavy rains of 4 - 8" capable of causing damaging flooding will be widespread over Japan, including over the Fukushima nuclear site, where rainfall from Typhoon Man-Yi on September 16 complicated clean-up efforts of the reactors damaged by the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami.

Japan may not be all done with typhoons this month, as both the GFS and European models are predicting that an area of disturbed weather (Invest 93W) east of the Philippines will develop into a tropical storm late this week, which will then head northwest and threaten Japan by next Wednesday, October 23.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Wipha approaching Japan, taken at approximately 04:25 UTC on October 15, 2013. At the time, Wipha was a Category 1 storm with winds of 90 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Nari hits Vietnam
Torrential rains are falling in Southeast Asia due to Typhoon Nari, which made landfall near Da Nang around 03 UTC on Wednesday as a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds. The eye passed 10 miles south of Da Nang, putting the city in the stronger northern semicircle of the storm. Da Nang recorded top sustained winds of 55 mph, gusting to 81 mph, and picked up 4.06" of rain. Damage is heavy in Da Nang, and at least five deaths are being blamed on the storm. Nari battered the Philippines on Friday, killing thirteen people and leaving 2.1 million people without power on the main Philippine island of Luzon.

The Atlantic is quiet
The tropical wave (Invest 98L) a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands that we've been tracking this week has been torn apart by high winds, and is no longer a threat to develop. There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis is predicting development over the next five days.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Octave (top) and Tropical Storm Priscilla (bottom) taken at approximately 18:30 UTC (2:30 pm EDT) on October 14, 2013. At the time, Octave had top winds of 50 mph, and Priscilla had top winds of 45 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Depression Octave in the Eastern Pacific bringing needed rain to Texas
In the Eastern Pacific, we have two tropical cyclones: Tropical Storm Priscilla, a minimal-strength tropical storm that is weakening and heading northwest out to sea, and Tropical Depression Octave, which hit Mexico's Baja Peninsula early Wednesday morning. Octave and Priscilla are embedded in a large plume of tropical moisture that is riding up to the northeast over Mexico and Texas. Flood watches and warnings are posted over much of the southern half of Texas, where widespread rains of 2 - 6" have fallen over the past two days. While the heavy rains have caused some minor to moderate flooding, the precipitation is mostly welcome, as it will make a substantial dent in the multi-year drought that has gripped much of Texas.


Video 1. Waterspout observed offshore of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico on October 14, 2013, as rains bands from Tropical Storm Octave moved over the Baja Peninsula.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 499. HadesGodWyvern:
add width=400 height=400 after the image address

Thanks.

Tried posting an image on my own blog w/o specifying a size. Looks OK. Blog code appears to auto-scale image, but I'm not familiar enough with HTML to figure out exactly how it's being done.

Been looking at the raw HTML for comments on this blog. Looks like most images are posted w/o explicit scaling here, too, and they look OK. So it seems that specifying an image size might help, but isn't (usually) required.

Only way to know for sure is to try it. Preview still looks really HUGE and wrong. But what could possibly go wrong?! Can always delete the dang thing later, right? (I hope!) Here goes...

YAAAH! Worked!

OK. Done playing now. Back to the regularly scheduled programming w/o further interruptions. ;)
Quoting 501. EstherD:

Thanks.

Tried posting an image on my own blog w/o specifying a size. Looks OK. Blog code appears to auto-scale image, but I'm not familiar enough with HTML to figure out exactly how it's being done.

Been looking at the raw HTML for comments on this blog. Looks like most images are posted w/o explicit scaling here, too, and they look OK. So it seems that specifying an image size might help, but isn't (usually) required.

Only way to know for sure is to try it. Preview still looks really HUGE and wrong. But what could possibly go wrong?! Can always delete the dang thing later, right? (I hope!) Here goes...



you're welcome
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #63
DEVELOPING LOW, FORMER TC WIPHA (T1326)
15:00 PM JST October 16 2013
======================================

Sea East Of Japan

At 6:00 AM UTC, Extratropical Low, Former Wipha (968 hPa) located at 41.0N 146.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65. The low is reported as moving north northeast at 50 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
600 NM from the center

This is the final tropical cyclone advisory from the Japan Meteorological Agency..
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31
15:00 PM JST October 16 2013
=====================================

Near Marianas Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 12.7N 144.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 13.8N 143.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas Island
World Ocean Systems Undermined by Climate Change by 2100

Oct. 15, 2013 — An ambitious new study describes the full chain of events by which ocean biogeochemical changes triggered by humanmade greenhouse gas emissions may cascade through marine habitats and organisms, penetrating to the deep ocean and eventually influencing humans.

Previous analyses have focused mainly on ocean warming and acidification, considerably underestimating the biological and social consequences of climate change. Factoring in predictable synergistic changes such as the depletion of dissolved oxygen in seawater and a decline in productivity of ocean ecosystems, the new study shows that no corner of the world ocean will be untouched by climate change by 2100.

"When you look at the world ocean, there are few places that will be free of changes; most will suffer the simultaneous effects of warming, acidification, and reductions in oxygen and productivity," said lead author Camilo Mora, assistant professor at the Department of Geography in the College of Social Sciences at the University of Hawai'i at Mānoa (UH Mānoa). "The consequences of these co-occurring changes are massive -- everything from species survival, to abundance, to range size, to body size, to species richness, to ecosystem functioning are affected by changes in ocean biogeochemistry."
...
Mora and Craig Smith with UH - noa's School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST) worked with a 28-person international collaboration of climate modelers, biogeochemists, oceanographers, and social scientists to develop the study, which is due for publication October 15 in the scientific journal PLOS Biology.


Link for #506

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/10/1310 15191401.htm

Quoting 491. EstherD:

OK. This is a very old post, and the OP has probably already gone to bed. Furthermore, the original image in this post appears to be a hotlink to the radar (rather than a static image), so I cannot be sure what I'm seeing now is what the OP saw several hours earlier. But I'll take a chance.

Clutter in a radar image has less to do with radio frequency interference (RFI) than with bogus reflections. Or to say it a better way, real (but undesired) reflections of objects that are not the intended target(s).

I'm going to assume you're referring to the linear yellow feature about 1/3 up the right-hand side of the image, which runs parallel to the red line representing I70, and just below the white cross, which represents the location of the radar.

Certain conditions make the atmosphere act like a lens, causing it to refract (bend) the outgoing radar beam down to the ground, and also to refract the returning echoes so that the radar sees them as if they were reflections of real targets in its straight line-of-sight. This phenomenon is what the term "clutter" is most-often used to describe.

Therefore, the most likely explanation is that this linear feature is a reflection from the cars and trucks on I70, or from the road surface itself.

The road is so close to the radar, that the beam won't be very high off the ground as it crosses the road, so it wouldn't take much refraction to cause it to hit the ground there. The fact that the radar is picking up the windmills is additional evidence that the beam is being refracted and picking up objects on the ground.

This is a common occurrence. So common in fact that I'm surprised some of the pro meteorologists didn't pick up on it earlier.

There are other well-known examples. One is near Chicago, I believe, but I don't want to take the time now to look it up, else this post will be another half hour later than it already is.


Oh my gosh...why are you mainly a lurker?! LOL Love bloggers who can post stuff like you
Report: U.S. to be top energy producer this year - USA Today, October 11, 2013

If we endanger the lives of billions with what largely amounts to a slow, poison gas, can their protector be far behind?

Is it easier to forecast the behavior of men, than the plagues he now beckons?



Quoting 508. mitthbevnuruodo:


Oh my gosh...why are you mainly a lurker?! LOL Love bloggers who can post stuff like you

Thanks. That response is based on my deep knowledge of physics and electrical engineering, in particular electromagnetic wave propagation (from courses in both physics and EE) and some practical knowledge of radar (from courses and professional work in EE). None of it comes from a knowledge of meteorology, about which I actually know very little. (Oddly, I have a pretty solid background in all of the physical sciences except meteorology, which is why I'm here... to learn. That bit about the radar picking up the road came from someone on this blog a year or two ago, for example.)

So mostly I lurk because: 1) I try to stay on topic, and the topics under discussion are mostly things I know little about; 2) I'm a very slow thinker and writer, so even when there is a topic I can contribute to, someone else almost always responds before I even know that I might have something relevant to say.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRISCILLA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162013
200 AM PDT WED OCT 16 2013

...PRISCILLA CONTINUES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 118.6W
ABOUT 660 MI...1065 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162013
200 AM PDT WED OCT 16 2013

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSE NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER
THE PAST 12H...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS UNCHANGED AT 30
KT...WHICH IS AN AVERAGE OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT
FROM UW-CIMSS ADT...30 KT FROM TAFB...AND 25 KT FROM SAB.

PASSIVE MICROWAVE FIXES INDICATE THAT PRISCILLA IS STILL MOVING AT
290/06 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR
THE NEXT 24H OR SO DUE TO A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF PRISCILLA. AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND BECOMES
A VERTICALLY SHALLOW REMNANT LOW...A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS
FORECAST BY 36H...FOLLOWED BY A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AT 48H
AND BEYOND AS THE WEAKENED SYSTEM GETS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.

THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT 12-18H WHILE
PRISCILLA REMAINS OVER MARGINALLY WARM SSTS. HOWEVER...BY 24H AND
BEYOND...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO A REGION OF MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR...WHILE ALSO
MOVING OVER SUB-26C SSTS. THIS COMBINATION OF UNFAVORABLE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE PRISCILLA TO WEAKEN AND DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT LOW BY 36H AND DISSIPATE AFTER 72H...IF NOT SOONER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 17.9N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 18.3N 119.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 18.6N 120.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 18.7N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/0600Z 18.5N 123.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0600Z 17.7N 125.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Good Morning folks!..Blogs Coffee is Perked!.......
Looks like no cool down for Tampa Bay area huh.........
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 71 degrees with a heat index of 76 with a high expected of 77. We have a 40 or 70 percent chance of rain, depending on who you listen to.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Andouille sausage and shrimp scramble, cheesy grits and shrimp, whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, whole wheat pancakes with fruit sauce, egg burritos with cheese and chorizo, scrambled eggs with ricotta and brocolini, Warm grapefruit and orange with toasted coconut, cranberry coffee cake, thick slices fried ham, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
G'morning. One of these cool fronts will make it there eventually Largo.
Good Morning,

I live just north of Largo (Dunedin). The great thing about our weather being right where it is at the moment is that my tomato plants are growing like crazy. Come home from work and they are visibly larger than when I left the house.

As long as the temp drop just below 70 at night ... perfect!

It has been dry, so watering is a must.
99 where are you?
Quoting 515. LargoFl:
Looks like no cool down for Tampa Bay area huh.........


No real cool down but not too long ago we were looking at low 90s for highs with mid 70s for lows.

The biggest thing is less humidity and no afternoon T storms anymore.
I'm afraid they are going to have to make this graph go up to 500PPM sooner or later.

Colder Temperatures Ahead for Midwest, Great Lakes
October 16, 2013
A colder weather pattern is set to take shape for the second half of October. Some locations could see their first snowflakes
MUCH cooler weather for the northeast starting on sunday only 62F IN new haven,conn and highs in the 50s next week!
Quoting 522. hurricanes2018:
Colder Temperatures Ahead for Midwest, Great Lakes
October 16, 2013
A colder weather pattern is set to take shape for the second half of October. Some locations could see their first snowflakes


Many areas may not even get out of the 30's for highs. Winter is coming to the Mid West in 4 to 5 days from now.
Good morning from Orlando while the Midwest braces itself for record cold temperatures. In Orlando it's 73 and foggy right now. Highs in the low 90's today thru most of next week with thunderstorm chances rising this weekend thru next week. Good Morning!
Quoting 520. Sfloridacat5:


No real cool down but not too long ago we were looking at low 90s for highs with mid 70s for lows.

The biggest thing is less humidity and no afternoon T storms anymore.


??? 73 with a dewpoint of 73 here in Orlando this morning. Maybe it's cooler in South FL than further north.
Cold in Dutchess county NY this morning! 42 degrees! High don't look to be getting out of the 50 next week! Winter is coming. Fast!
Yes the lower humidity is most welcomed huh..ah dunedin..I used to grow tomatoes also..this weather is great for them..but your right..without the afternoon rains watering is a must for sure..years ago i tried some corn..didnt do too well so i never tried it again.
Quoting 529. LargoFl:
Yes the lower humidity is most welcomed huh..ah dunedin..I used to grow tomatoes also..this weather is great for them..but your right..without the afternoon rains watering is a must for sure..years ago i tried some corn..didnt do too well so i never tried it again.


Lots of rain on the way just wait a few more days. Also the high humidity is back over by E C FL. Sticky outside today!

GFS 192hr precip accum
The next 3 weeks look wet across FL thanks to the MJO.


Beginnings of an El-Nino building in? Notice all the warm water across the western Pacific starting to shift further east.


Looks like record lows will outnumber record highs yet again. GW? Sheesh!
Quoting 395. CarolinaJim:

It doesn't matter what Dr. Master's says about the issue. Do you honestly think he will chime in at this hour? The answer is no.

Please stay on topic. Weather is weather. Climate is climate. The topic is weather. Is that clear?

Stacy - Please stay on topic. Perhaps you missed the banter last night. Lots of trespassing. Lots of it. Let's not go there today, K?
Quoting 535. Nekeopbarren:

Stacy - Please stay on topic. Perhaps you missed the banter last night. Lots of trespassing. Lots of it. Let's not go there today, K?


GW is always on topic on Doc's blog.
Quoting 529. LargoFl:
Yes the lower humidity is most welcomed huh..ah dunedin..I used to grow tomatoes also..this weather is great for them..but your right..without the afternoon rains watering is a must for sure..years ago i tried some corn..didnt do too well so i never tried it again.



Even tomato "experts" here say that growing anything except cherry varieties here is tough. When a seed packet says that plant wants "full sun", I think they mean Ohio and not here. LOL.

I moved my garden from very sunny to an area shaded by a giant oak, and have been doing much better. I had yellow pear tomatoes (small cherry-like variety) by the bushel ... the plant was 7 feet tall! Trying a couple new types this fall. Growing a lot of peppers too.
Well it actually is more humid over Orlando to the coast as compared to the rest of the state.

6-10 day


8-14 day
GFS fantastyland. A monster winter storm for the great lakes.

Quoting 540. FunnelVortex:
GFS fantastyland. A monster winter storm for the great lakes.



I can't count how many times GFS phantoms have buried us (the norcent gom) in snow or Cat3,4,or 5 'canes. I'm all for the snow, not the 'canes!
Quoting 510. EstherD:

Thanks.... 2) I'm a very slow thinker and writer, so even when there is a topic I can contribute to, someone else almost always responds before I even know that I might have something relevant to say.


I like to describe this as being "thoughtful" as opposed to slow.... as it has been applied to me as well.
I hope the folks in Japan are safe. Yes they have great engineered drainage, but with Mountains to squeeze out the rain and give it speed, and practically 100% impervious paved and built up areas around Tokyo. No chance to slow the rain down or soak it in, even if it was bone dry previously.
That is to say this may overtax some of their systems.
Even with good building codes, there may be landslides after that much precip.
Quoting 537. CaptainComet:



Even tomato "experts" here say that growing anything except cherry varieties here is tough. When a seed packet says that plant wants "full sun", I think they mean Ohio and not here. LOL.

I moved my garden from very sunny to an area shaded by a giant oak, and have been doing much better. I had yellow pear tomatoes (small cherry-like variety) by the bushel ... the plant was 7 feet tall! Trying a couple new types this fall. Growing a lot of peppers too.
wow you sure have the touch alright.
well we dried out nicely the last week or so,we can take whatever rain comes now when the fronts get here..dont know about south florida, they got more rain than I did here....
TD 26.
nice fall weather!!
If I had a dollar for every hurricane the models were wrong about this year, I would.. well.. you know the rest.

GFS full ENS 240 hours.

1,000 cows frozen to death in early october. Its time to emit more carbons to warm things up a little. I for one will leave my car on outside for an extra 15 minutes so the exhaust pipes can heat up the world. I'm willing to do the little things to keep more cows from freezing. On the other hand, dont polar bears like more snow. Think i will side with the cows on this one since i like hamburgers.
G'morning from Central OK,

A little chill in the air, as temps are pretty cool right now. All in all, a pretty good soaking from the rain in most of Texas and OK. However, the regions that needed it most missed out, and drought continues in the SW corner of the state of OK.

See that the folks in TX are happy that the rain dances finally worked.

Have a fantastic day, and an even better weekend.

Cheers!
Beware swimming in the ocean here in FL

Sea Water Bacteria Vibrio Vulnificus Claims 10 Lives in Florida
Show that fantasy hurricane, GFS.....

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
Storm Warning
TROPICAL STORM FRANCISCO (T1327)
21:00 PM JST October 16 2013
=====================================

Near Marianas Island

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Francisco (1000 hPa) located at 11.5N 143.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 12 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 12.6N 141.9E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Marianas Island
48 HRS: 15.6N 141.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Marianas Island
72 HRS: 18.3N 139.2E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
Late next week the first significant front of the season is coming to Central Florida!!!
Popped in this morning to catch up on the latest chatter, so I was reading through the last page of comments and see that there was quite a bit of controversy last night about what kind of comments are permitted and not permitted, especially when it pertained to AGW.

It is a valid point that some brought up. AGW seems to be the most controversial and gets the most warnings, I guess because it becomes most heated and oftentimes personal.

Seems as though there is an arbitrary enforcement of whether a comment is relevant or not on the part of the moderators. The Admin Notice above this box where I am writing this is pretty clear in stating "please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself". My reading of that is that if Dr. Masters didn't blog about AGW in his current blog entry, then that topic isn't pertinent to the tropical weather discussion. Same goes for local forecasts and radar displays (unless they are related to an approaching tropical system), fake breakfast menus and 80% of the other comments that don't meet the standards listed under the Admin Notice, but the moderators arbitrarily enforce the rules, including posting their own comments that don't meet their own standards, so the confusion ensues.
Quoting 554. StormTrackerScott:
Beware swimming in the ocean here in FL

Sea Water Bacteria Vibrio Vulnificus Claims 10 Lives in Florida


Morning Scott.. :)
The link to the bacteria info didn't work.. :(
Quoting 556. Torito:
Show that fantasy hurricane, GFS.....

Good morning all...Even though this is long range I would keep an eye on this area or the SW Caribbean/Gulf of Honduras, depending on where the MJO decides to show the greatest upward motion. Could get a storm on either side of Central America. More likely on the Atlantic side since we are getting closer to the end of the EPAC season.
Quoting 534. stacyrunnergirl:
Looks like record lows will outnumber record highs yet again. GW? Sheesh!
You should read Dr. Roods series of blogs on the Arctic Oscillation. It helps explain how AGW/CC influences the AO and big lazy loops of cold Arctic air can come down and persist in certain regions like the U.S. Blocking highs can keep the cold in place while other regions like the Arctic, Alaska, Australia suffer from severe heat waves. While the U.S. - at least the lower 48 states - can have many record lows, they are usually outnumbered by record highs around the world - hence the term "GLOBAL" warming. It doesn't mean that every region on the earth will warm steadily and smoothly, but that, on average, the earth is warming.

Perhaps some of the meteorology experts can explain the cold of the AO and blocking highs better, but there is a lot of information on it on the internet in case you are actually interested in learning more and not simply bashing what Dr. Masters and Dr. Rood are teaching us about AGW/CC.
Quoting 556. Torito:
Show that fantasy hurricane, GFS.....



Yes yes yes yes yes the EPAC is saving TX's bacon this year. Thank you thank you thank you thank you!
Antarctic Researchers To Congress: Don't Stop The Science!
Posted: 10/15/2013 6:57 pm EDT | Updated: 10/15/2013 7:13 pm EDT


WASHINGTON -- A contractor working at the United States Antarctic Program has started an online petition asking Congress to shield the program's McMurdo Station from the effects of the government shutdown.

Richard Jeong, a senior systems administrator at United States Antarctic Program, started the Change.org petition last week, and more than 3,000 people—including a number of scientists -- have since signed it.

Jeong wants the government to continue funding the station's work, which is part of a National Science Foundation program. The shutdown came just as scientists there were preparing for the summer research season, and the closure has forced the station to go into a holding pattern while it awaits a new appropriation.

"Unlike shutting down a court or a government office in a city, removing Antarctic participants from the ice means losing a long-term investment in infrastructure and a higher cost to re-start the projects," wrote Jeong. "I’m seeing the devastating consequences of this decision firsthand as I’ve been working as a contractor at McMurdo Station in Antarctica all winter. Congress must pass a shutdown exemption, similar to US Military Pay and US Defense Contractors, for the USAP program or end the shutdown."

..more
Quoting 556. Torito:
Show that fantasy hurricane, GFS.....



Yes yes yes yes yes the EPAC is saving TX's bacon this year. Thank you thank you thank you thank you!
Quoting 560. pcola57:


Morning Scott.. :)
The link to the bacteria info didn't work.. :(


Sorry it was from weather.com
Quoting 566. StormTrackerScott:


Sorry it was from weather.com


No prob.. :)
Here's the link..

Link
Hasn't AGW been a topic of discussion since around the 1950s? Didn't we have cold spells between that time and now. Like the late 1970s and for much of the 1980s? It shouldn't be nothing new, not every year is going to see record high temperatures in fact that is not even what AGW is all about, you have to factor in Greenhouse gases and CO2 levels. Sure you're going to have /- oscillations that are going to continue to bring warm or cool weather depending on the amplification of troughs and heights of ridges along the Rossby Waves, but that doesn't defeat the purpose of AGW. Our concern now is to raise awareness to the public and start looking at alternative ways to save on energy and stop polluting the environment, so our future generations can live a healthy and happy life and not have to deal with the consequences of AGW.
Quoting 566. StormTrackerScott:


Sorry it was from weather.com

The bacterial infections in most cases did not come from swimming in the water; at least 2 of them were from people who tended their crab traps. The number of cases this year is not higher, but the families of the affected cases are being vocal about it and good for them. A recent case in Volusia County where the man died was maybe 60 hours from the time of exposure to his death, pretty frightening.
Folks at work here debating how much the stock market will fall point wise with the default looming, everybody chipping in money and whoever is closest wins the pot of money. Will it fall 200, 400, 600 points?
Quoting 568. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Hasn't AGW been a topic of discussion since around the 1950s?
Believe it or not, greenhouse heating from CO2 has been a topic of scientific study since 1824, and of general scientific interest for hundreds of years before that.
Quoting 568. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Our concern now is to raise awareness to the public and start looking at alternative ways to save on energy and stop polluting the environment, so our future generations can live a healthy and happy life and not have to deal with the consequences of AGW.
I'm afraid that train has already left the station... :-\
Vessel capsizes off Miami; 4 dead, 11 rescued

By Marlena Baldacci, CNN
updated 10:27 AM EDT, Wed October 16, 2013




(CNN) -- Four people are dead and 11 were rescued after a small vessel capsized in waters off Miami early Wednesday, and rescuers were trying to determine whether anyone else needed to be saved, a U.S. Coast Guard spokeswoman said.
The vessel capsized just after 1 a.m. about 7 miles off the channel that ships use to pass Miami Beach into the Port of Miami, Coast Guard spokeswoman Sabrina Laberdesque said.
The Coast Guard would not comment on the names and nationalities of those aboard, or the vessel's destination and point of departure.
The 11 rescued were found clinging to the capsized craft, the Coast Guard said. Among them, one was airlifted to a hospital; their conditions were not released.
Those who died were found in the water, the Coast Guard said.
The Coast Guard said it was searching for any other passengers who might be in the water Wednesday morning.
574. SLU
I hope CaribBoy isn't on the blog this morning to see this:

The remnants of a system that was given a 50 - 60% probability of development a few days ago.

Stock market manipulation, 401K depletion, higher and higher taxes, poverty rising, guns guns guns, outta control society, wars/civil wars, weather disasters, energy crisis....AGW discussion?

How's my future look?

Bright...VERY BRIGHT

Rescue workers search for survivors among collapsed houses on Izu Oshima island, south of Tokyo, after a landslide caused by Typoon Wipha on October 16, 2013

At least 17 dead, 50 missing as Typhoon Wipha grazes Japan
Updated 5 hours 9 minutes ago


A typhoon killed 17 people in Japan on Wednesday, most on an offshore island, but largely spared the capital and caused no new disaster as it brushed by the wrecked Fukushima nuclear power station.

Typhoon Wipha roared up Japan's east coast, forcing the evacuation of about 20,000 people from their homes because of flooding and the cancellation of hundreds of flights.

Sixteen people were killed on Izu Oshima island about 120 kilometres south of Tokyo, as rivers burst their banks.

Meanwhile, the island's local authority says it has not been able to confirm the whereabouts of 50 of Izu Oshima's more than 8,300 residents.

The storm set off mudslides along a two-kilometre stretch of mountains.

Television footage showed roads clogged with wreckage and houses with gaping holes smashed into them.

"I heard a crackling sound and then the trees on the hillside all fell over," a woman on Izu Oshima told NHK television.

The once-in-a-decade storm brought hurricane-force winds and drenching rain to the Tokyo metropolitan area of 30 million people at the peak of the morning rush hour.

A woman was swept away by a swollen river in the west of the capital, the government said, while about 20 people were hurt in falls or struck by flying debris.

More than 500 flights at Tokyo's Haneda and Narita airports were cancelled, and thousands of schools closed. Bullet train services were halted but resumed by Wednesday afternoon.

The operator of the Fukushima nuclear plant, Tokyo Electric Power Corporation (TEPCO), cancelled all offshore work and secured machinery as the storm approached.

TEPCO has been struggling to contain radioactive leaks since a 2011 earthquake and tsunami caused extensive damage and triggered the world's worst nuclear crisis since Chernobyl in 1986.

A TEPCO spokesman said the typhoon had caused no new problems at the plant, which is on the coast 220 kilometres north of Tokyo.

The storm dumped heavy rain which had to be pumped out of protective containers at the base of about 1,000 tanks storing radioactive water, the by-product of a jerry-rigged cooling system designed to control wrecked reactors.

The rainwater was checked for radioactivity and released into the sea, the company spokesman said.

Typhoon Wipha was downgraded to a tropical depression by 5:00pm AEST. It was off the coast of north-eastern Japan and moving northeast at 95 kph, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency.

At its height, Wipha had sustained winds at its centre of 126 kph and gusts of up to 180 kph.

It was the strongest storm to hit the region since October 2004.

That cyclone triggered floods and landslides that killed almost 100 people, forced thousands from their homes and caused billions of dollars in damage.

Reuters/AFP
Give it a rest Rita,

The DOW is up 161...pernts.

Maybe do a personal entry on it and link to it from here.
coming faster now

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
21:00 PM JST October 16 2013
======================================

Sea Around The Kurils

At 12:00 PM UTC, Extratropical Low, Former Wipha (964 hPa) located at 44.0N 149.0E. The low is reported as moving northeast at 50 knots.
Gotta prop it up, before it tanks...
Highs in the 30's & 40's across the Upper Midwest. Brrrr!

Quoting 575. RitaEvac:
Stock market manipulation, 401K depletion, higher and higher taxes, poverty rising, guns guns guns, outta control society, wars/civil wars, weather disasters, energy crisis....AGW discussion?

How's my future look?

Bright...VERY BRIGHT


Here's the end of the GFS run. The whole mother load drops south bringing freezes to the Tennessee Valley.

Quoting 571. RitaEvac:
Folks at work here debating how much the stock market will fall point wise with the default looming, everybody chipping in money and whoever is closest wins the pot of money. Will it fall 200, 400, 600 points?





Won't fall. Those with financial savvy know that it's illegal not to service our debt and we have the money to make the interest payments off of what we take in.
Quoting 580. RitaEvac:
Gotta prop it up, before it tanks...


Military vets may not get paid if the shutdown continues and the Government is not going to retro the payments if a resolution is met. November 1st is when this happens.
Quoting 559. HeinrichFrogswatter:
Popped in this morning to catch up on the latest chatter, so I was reading through the last page of comments and see that there was quite a bit of controversy last night about what kind of comments are permitted and not permitted, especially when it pertained to AGW.

It is a valid point that some brought up. AGW seems to be the most controversial and gets the most warnings, I guess because it becomes most heated and oftentimes personal.

Seems as though there is an arbitrary enforcement of whether a comment is relevant or not on the part of the moderators. The Admin Notice above this box where I am writing this is pretty clear in stating "please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself". My reading of that is that if Dr. Masters didn't blog about AGW in his current blog entry, then that topic isn't pertinent to the tropical weather discussion. Same goes for local forecasts and radar displays (unless they are related to an approaching tropical system), fake breakfast menus and 80% of the other comments that don't meet the standards listed under the Admin Notice, but the moderators arbitrarily enforce the rules, including posting their own comments that don't meet their own standards, so the confusion ensues.
I agree with much of what you say,Heinrich. Many people here don't understand AGW/CC and are apparently uncomfortable when the subject is discussed, and feel compelled to try to stifle the conversations. This happens even though Dr. Masters attempts to teach all of us everyone here the actual hard science of climate which supports AGW/CC, something he does in addition in addition to analyzing weather. With no significant named storms threatening the U.S., off-topic subjects are usually tolerated - as long as that topic is not AGW/CC.

And notice that denialists are usually the ones who start the conversations - quite often with provocative and unsupported - and/or bogus statements. Then other people get upset when someone jumps in, usually to defend what is actually Dr. Masters' position on the subject.

Many people here indirectly bash Dr. Masters and his involvement in climate science and AGW/CC - usually with no evidence or very flawed evidence to support their positions - which are often feelings, beliefs and opinions with no basis in science and facts.

The relationship between weather, climate and global warming are extremely complex and currently subject to a HUGE global research effort as scientists try to sort out the details and better understand AGW/CC and its implications for human civilization.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
I hope it ain't the same Financial "Savvy" know how dat blew up the Economy in 08.

But datz jus me.

The DOW sure has rebounded since Jan 09.

; 0


next week another west pacific cyclone to form...?