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Heavy Damage in India From Phailin, but a Low Death Toll

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:49 PM GMT on October 14, 2013

Tropical Cyclone Phailin has left behind a shattered coast in northeast India's Odisha region, but a remarkably low death toll, after making landfall on Saturday near the town of Gopalpur. According to media reports, the death toll from the cyclone is the 22 - 36 range, which is extremely low, considering this is a region where 10,000 died in a similar-strength cyclone in 1999. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) provided excellent early warning information for Phailin, predicting on October 9 that the cyclone would strike on October 12 with at least Category 2-strength winds. Civil defense in India took the warnings seriously, and operated the largest evacuation effort in the nation's history--nearly 1 million people--one that undoubtedly saved hundreds of lives. There were far more shelters available to put the evacuees in, compared to in 1999, thanks to a major effort to build more shelters after the terrible 1999 Odisha cyclone. The high death toll in the 1999 cyclone was blamed, in part, due to lack of shelters.


Figure 1. Evacuated Indian villagers get down from a truck at a relief camp as it rains near Berhampur, India, Saturday, Oct. 12, 2013. (AP Photo/Bikas Das)


Figure 2. Villagers take refuge in a cyclone shelter at Gokhorkuda village in, Ganjam district about 200 kilometers (125 miles) from the eastern Indian city Bhubaneswar, India, Saturday, Oct. 12, 2013. (AP Photo/Biswaranjan Rout)

According to media reports, Phailin brought a storm surge of up to 3.5 meters (11 feet) to portions of the coast. I estimate the cyclone's winds were 125 - 140 mph at landfall--Category 3 to 4. The pressure bottomed out at 938 mb in Gopalpur as the eye passed over. At its peak strength 12 hours before landfall, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) rated Phailin as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. JTWC has rated only three other Bay of Bengal cyclones that strong: the 1999 Odisha Cyclone (10,000 killed in India), Cyclone Sidr of 2007 (4,200 killed in Bangladesh), and the 1991 02B cyclone that hit Bangladesh (138,000 killed.) All had top winds of 160 mph. There has only been one Category 5 cyclone on record in the Arabian Sea, Cyclone Gonu of 2007 (165 mph winds.) Accurate satellite records of North Indian Ocean tropical cyclones go back no earlier than 1980.


Figure 3. Indian fishermen look at boats destroyed by Cyclone Phailin at the Gopalpur Port on October 14, 2013. (MANAN VATSYAYANA/AFP/Getty Images)

Typhoon Wipha a heavy rainfall threat for Japan
Huge and powerful Category 2 Typhoon Wipha is now weakening as it heads north towards Japan. The storm peaked as a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds on Sunday, but has weakened to 110 mph winds, despite warm ocean temperatures of 28 - 29°C and moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots, because of an eyewall replacement cycle and ingestion of dry air. On Tuesday, Wipha will encounter cooler waters and higher wind shear, which should substantially weaken the storm as it recurves to the northeast and passes just offshore from Tokyo. The coast of Japan should experience winds below hurricane force, if the core of Wipha passes offshore as expected, but heavy rains of 4 - 8" capable of causing damaging flooding will likely affect portions of the coast, including Tokyo. Heavy rains from Wipha may be a concern for the Fukushima nuclear site, where rainfall from Typhoon Man-Yi on September 16 complicated clean-up efforts of the reactors damaged by the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami.


Figure 4. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Wipha, taken at approximately 02:30 UTC on October 14, 2013. At the time, Wipha was a Category 3 storm with winds of 125 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Nari nearing landfall in Vietnam
Torrential rains are falling in Vietnam due to Category 1 Typhoon Nari, which is nearing landfall in the central part of the country. More than 180,000 people have been evacuated in advance of the storm. Nari battered the Philippines on Friday, killing thirteen people and leaving 2.1 million people without power on the main Philippine island of Luzon.

98L in the Eastern Atlantic disorganized
A tropical wave (Invest 98L) about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is headed west-northwest at 10 mph. Satellite loops show that 98L has lost most of its organization and heavy thunderstorms. The disturbance is under a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear, and the shear is expected to remain high for the next two days. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 0%, and 5-day odds of 10%. 98L's projected west-northwest track is expected take it close to the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Thursday, according to the 00Z Monday run of the European model.

Moisture associated with Tropical Storm Octave in the Eastern Pacific bringing needed rain to Texas
In the Eastern Pacific, we have two tropical cyclones: newly-developed Tropical Storm Priscilla, and Tropical Storm Octave. Octave is the only one that is a threat to land, and the 60-mph tropical storm is headed NNW towards Mexico's Baja Peninsula, where 3 - 6" of rain is expected over the next few days. Octave is expected to dissipate before making it to Baja, due to increasing dry air and wind shear. Octave and Priscilla are embedded in a large plume of tropical moisture that is riding up to the northeast over Mexico and Texas. Flood watches and warnings are posted over many areas of Texas, where widespread rains of 2 - 6" have fallen over the past day. While the heavy rains have caused some moderate flooding, the precipitation is mostly welcome, as it will make a substantial dent in the multi-year drought that has gripped much of Texas. Wunderblogger Lee Grenci makes the point in his latest post that much of the moisture generating the heavy rains in Texas is actually coming from the Gulf of Mexico, due to the clockwise flow of low-level air around a high pressure system over the Upper Midwest.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 498. sar2401:

This isn't a normal October. You'd expect to see warmer temperatures still over the SE, dry conditions in general, relaxing wind shear, and increasing vertical instability. None of that is happening this year. The conditions are more like mid-June than mid-October. It's not impossible for this track to occur...we just saw it with Karen. We also saw Karen, whcih the models though was going to be at least a cat 1 hurricane, get torn to shreds and become a remnant low without making landfall. The easterlies and continuing high wind shear make it nearly impossible for any storm which does form and follow the usual October track to survive, and, after October 20, the odds get worse every day. Maybe October 2014 will be different, but not this October.
Mitch was really weird in track to a October storm it move south towards Honduras meanwhile every model was saying WNW to NW before landfall occur.
Quoting 498. sar2401:

This isn't a normal October. You'd expect to see warmer temperatures still over the SE, dry conditions in general, relaxing wind shear, and increasing vertical instability. None of that is happening this year. The conditions are more like mid-June than mid-October. It's not impossible for this track to occur...we just saw it with Karen. We also saw Karen, whcih the models though was going to be at least a cat 1 hurricane, get torn to shreds and become a remnant low without making landfall. The easterlies and continuing high wind shear make it nearly impossible for any storm which does form and follow the usual October track to survive, and, after October 20, the odds get worse every day. Maybe October 2014 will be different, but not this October.
Quoting EstherD:

I've noticed that, too, and wondered about it a bit myself.

It may be as you say... long-term members who have been lurking and not posting recently suddenly get the urge to post. But if that were true, then I would expect at least a few of these old-timer postings would come in response to something being actively discussed on the blog. And I would expect that at least some of them would be pro-AGW.

What seems odd to me is that, contrary to my expectations, most of these old-timer postings appear to come completely out-of-the-blue, do not relate to anything being actively discussed at the moment, and most seem to be opposed to AGW in some way. (These are my impressions. YMMV.)

So another possible explanation springs to mind: These are old astroturf (or troll) accounts, created at the time of the release of the previous IPCC rerport, which have lain fallow over the last several years, because they were not needed. They are being reactivated now to counter the recently-released IPCC report, or to disrupt discussions based on it.

Having been around a few years, I don't recognize most of the infrequent posters by the usual "troll" signatures. I really haven't seen a lot of anti-AGW posts from this group either. If anything, I've been surprised by people with post counts of less than 20 and being members for several years making some downright mean posts in support of AGW. I suspect the real reason is that Dr. Masters is on TWC frequently, his WU blog get frequent quotes, and people who basically forgot all about the blog are now coming back again. I'm sure that TWC has marketing folks that look at these trends. It would be interesting being a fly on the wall during one of their meetings. :-)
Quoting 456. BaltimoreBrian:
Again, Skuldouggery, there were a total of 7 scientific papers in the 15 year period from 1965 to 1979 that predicted global cooling. Seven. There were not 'tons of scientists saying we were heading for an ice age' as you claim. Either you have no idea of what climate research of the time was concluding, or you do know and you are lying.

Golly, which could it be? Has no idea? Lying? Has no idea? Lying?

Edit: If he really has no idea, but speaks as if he does, then he is lying. If he knows better and still lies, again, a liar.
505. SLU
Quoting 458. BaltimoreBrian:


I doubt it too. It was the NAO flip during the last week of October 1994 that presaged the active 1995 hurricane season and most of the seasons since.


Yes .. The NAO was negative during the winter of 1994 if i'm correct and that helped the SSTs to really blow up in time for the unforgettable 1995 season.
Quoting 499. sar2401:

See #498. It's only the calendar that says it's October.
?
Quoting 503. sar2401:

Having been around a few years, I don't recognize most of the infrequent posters by the usual "troll" signatures. I really haven't seen a lot of anti-AGW posts from this group either. If anything, I've been surprised by people with post counts of less than 20 and being members for several years making some downright mean posts in support of AGW. I suspect the real reason is that Dr. Masters is on TWC frequently, his WU blog get frequent quotes, and people who basically forgot all about the blog are now coming back again. I'm sure that TWC has marketing folks that look at these trends. It would be interesting being a fly on the wall during one of their meetings. :-)

What would be really interesting in this context, and a feature I've long-wished that WU blogs provided, is a way to look at (or search) the entire corpus of a particular blogger in chronological order. That would make it much easier to identify the trolls and the astroturfers.
"If anything, I've been surprised by people with post counts of less than 20 and being members for several years making some downright mean posts in support of AGW."

I haven't noticed that happening. Can you give some examples?

Edit: Only 13 more posts to 5000!
I went through skuldouggery's page (which is from 2009 from climate depot) and its links.

34 links total

3 links are dead
3 are to other climate depot pages

1 USA TODAY
6 New York Times
3 Time magazine
2 Washington Times
2 Dennis Dutton blog (philosophy professor died in 2010)
2 John Daly blog entries (died in 2004, not a scientist)
1 Newsweek
1 zombietime.com/zomblog
1 icecap.us, denier blog entry
1 algorelied.com
1 anonymous blog on blogspot
1 capitalismmagazine.com
1 amazon book page
1 peopleofglobalwarming.com
1 Wisconsin Energy Cooperative webpage
1 Business and media Institute

1 paper from 1975 supporting global warming
1 paper from 1971 supporting global cooling (due to aerosol pollution)


After all that it just cited 2 science papers. One supporting global warming, and one global cooling SkulDouggery said he had a page full of science papers from the 1970s predicting global cooling and there was just one.

ONE

Wow.

PS my favorite scienctific (so to speak) source climate depot used was zombietime.com/zomblog
From earlier:

@TheWxMeister 9h
#nwas13 "EF" was intended to be pronounced as "F" to honor the legacy of Fujita and his scale. WE screwed that up!
Maybe climatedepot just wants to up their page view count so they can justify getting more money from some sponsor. LOL I just totally made that up, but at least I admit it.
"If anything, I've been surprised by people with post counts of less than 20 and being members for several years making some downright mean posts in support of AGW" Saar2401 I'd like to see some examples of this too, as bappit pointed out.
Quoting allancalderini:
Mitch was really weird in track to a October storm it move south towards Honduras meanwhile every model was saying WNW to NW before landfall occur.

Evening, Allan. Indeed, Mitch was a weird October storm, and the type I'm more concerned about than the usual over Cuba and on to Florida storm this year. The conditions in the SW Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras are not as ideal as they were for Mitch, but they are much better than for a storm which has to fight its way north through the continental troughs and easterlies. It's very possible for a weak low to intensify into a hurricane in the GOH, cross Honduras, get picked up by some of the energy in the Eastern Pacific, get carried along through Central America, and then get slingshoted into the BOC and Gulf. What's missing is shear relaxation and a cold front in the Gulf to act as a highway for a Mitch-type storm. I know you are already aware of this, Allan, since you live in Honduras, for those who don't, even though Mitch was a "minimal" hurricane when it made landfall in Honduras, it sat offshore for two days and pummeled most of Honduras with 120 mph winds and 18" to 35" of rain, causing horrendous structural damage and massive flooding. No one knows how many died for sure, but it was over 7,000.

I'm not wishing harm on anyone but, if we get a tropical storm in the SW Caribbean, I hope it follows the path of its predecessors into Mexico. It would be the least damaging and least casualty rout it could follow.
It also isn't true that: "all you have to do is look up "1970 ice age warnings" on wiki".

If you Google "1970 ice age warnings", the top link is the Climate Depot page that Brian analyzed.

But Link #5 is to a Wikipedia article, Global cooling, which begins:
"Global cooling was a conjecture during the 1970s of imminent cooling of the Earth's surface and atmosphere culminating in a period of extensive glaciation. This hypothesis had little support in the scientific community, but gained temporary popular attention due to a combination of a slight downward trend of temperatures from the 1940s to the early 1970s and press reports that did not accurately reflect the full scope of the scientific climate literature, i.e., a larger and faster-growing body of literature projecting future warming due to greenhouse gas emissions. ... "

Therefore, even much-maligned Wikipedia fails to support SkulDouggery's position!

So I guess he couldn't even be bothered to read the stuff he claimed to be referencing.

For my money, I'll bet on an astroturfer, not someone returning to the blog after a long absence because of a sudden revival of interest in tropical weather due to Dr. M's blog being given prominence on TWC.

Edit: Forgot to include the link to the Wikipedia article.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #54
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM NARI (T1325)
12:00 PM JST October 15 2013
======================================

Overland Vietnam

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Nari (985 hPa) located at 15.3N 107.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 10 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center in east quadrant
100 NM from the center in west quadrant

Dvorak intensity: OVERLAND

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 15.5N 104.3E - Tropical Depression Overland Thailand

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #54
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON WIPHA (T1326)
12:00 PM JST October 15 2013
======================================

Sea South Of Japan

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Wipha (945 hPa) located at 27.7N 134.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 13 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
400 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
325 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Dvorak intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 37.7N 142.2E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Miyagi Prefecture
45 HRS: 48.5N 154.3E - Extratropical Low In Kuril Waters
Quoting 484. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wipha looks horrid. I doubt it remains a typhoon all the way to Japan.

Once again I tip my hat to the GFS model, it has been doing amazingly well in the Eastern Hemisphere, with Cyclone Phailin, Typhoon Nari and Wipha. Of course it is another story in our neck of the woods. But that is ok, the season busted and now the models are finally responding and waking up to that.

This would pretty much be current:



And likely no longer a Typhoon later today:



Time stamp is from 12z Oct. 12.
Good work EstherD!
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
"If anything, I've been surprised by people with post counts of less than 20 and being members for several years making some downright mean posts in support of AGW" Saar2401 I'd like to see some examples of this too, as bappit pointed out.

Brian, I don't have that particular post number at hand but I believe it was yesterday. It's hard to remember since the Doc has been adding new blogs pretty quickly. I can't believe you don't remember it (Like I said, he had 12 posts over about years and I had never seen his handle before). Geoffry posted a hilarious parody of the "rear" of the Rushmore National Monument and the caption was we could only look at it from the Canadian side due to the government shutdown. Nothing about AGW at all. This guy comes on saying he reported him flagged him (whatever that means), and ignored him because we were all dumping trillions of tons of carbon on the atmosphere, and it wasn't funny....really the response was one of the most cruel and, I believe, delusional posts I've seen "supporting" AGW. You're a lot quicker at finding things than me if you don't remember the post. There were a couple of others that were also low post count that were clearly AGW believers but none that was that bizarre.
PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 12:06 pm WST on Tuesday 15 October 2013

This is a test message




Australia is getting ready for their cyclone season.
sar2401 that one yesterday, napleswebdesigner (or something like that) was a sockpuppet used by one of the people who hates Neapolitan. One time winter before last that handle commented on my blog posting a bunch of weird crap. I banned him. But before I got rid of him I traced the IP.

The IP he posted from traced back to North Richland Hills, TX, a suburb of Fort Worth, TX. A long way from Naples FL.
That would be a good tie in with The Walking Dead sar,

This ammo (or firearm) was approved by the cast of The Walking Dead. Or used in The Walking Dead.
Quoting 520. BaltimoreBrian:
... before I got rid of him I traced the IP. ...

Others have claimed to be able to do that, too. How the hex can you do that w/o access to the raw server logs?!
524. VR46L
Nothing tropical of note upto 288 hrs

but a deep winter storm

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
sar2401 that one yesterday, napleswebdesigner (or something like that) was a sockpuppet used by one of the people who hates Neapolitan. One time winter before last that handle commented on my blog posting a bunch of weird crap. I banned him. But before I got rid of him I traced the IP.

The IP he posted from traced back to North Richland Hills, TX, a suburb of Fort Worth, TX. A long way from Naples FL.

Yep, that was him. He's either a jerk, crazy, or both. I'm not a great fan on Neapolitan either, for a number of reasons, but why go around stalking someone, especially when you're doing it to a guy who's done you no harm?

I'm constantly amazed by the number of people who actually believe that posts either for or against any subject here have any meaning in the "real" world. We are just a bunch of geeks and science wonks writing back and forth, and most people would think we were a little "off" to being with. My fiance already thinks that, and she supposedly loves me. :-)
EstherD you don't need access to the server logs. All you need is a visitor tracking program like MapLoco. trHUrrIXC5MMX and Astrometeor display them on their blogs. You can see where people post from and when. However these tracking programs do not have to be openly displayed.
I'm telling you that something is trying to form down in the South Central Caribbean! Just look for yourself if you don't believe me.
Quoting 528. HurriHistory:
I'm telling you that something is trying to form down in the South Central Caribbean! Just look for yourself it you don't believe me.


Do or do not. There is no try. ;)

The late great Grady Norton can be seen throughout this film.
Quoting 527. BaltimoreBrian:
EstherD you don't need access to the server logs. All you need is a visitor tracking program like MapLoco. trHUrrIXC5MMX and Astrometeor display them on their blogs. You can see where people post from and when. However these tracking programs do not have to be openly displayed.

Thanks, Brian!

Retired now, but in a former lifetime in a galaxy far away, my profession was computer systems, networking and security, mostly UNIX-based, but also Mac, and to a lesser extent, Windows.

Never did anything much with Web design, although I did run a rudimentary Apache webserver for a few years, mostly for internal information dissemination. So I don't know a lot about the in's and out's of blog implementation. Thought these blogs were purely text-based and passive; hence, couldn't figure out how you could see what IP was being used. Unless, of course, you had a back-channel into the raw WU server logs, which seemed highly unlikely. Didn't realize that users could add code to track visitors. Now it makes sense. Glad I asked!
Quoting 529. BaltimoreBrian:


Do or do not. There is no try. ;)
When Polly's in trouble I am not slow. It's hip hip hip and away I goooooooooooo.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
http://www.philstar.com/news-feature/2013/10/15/1 245553/photos-quake-aftermath

Some of those Spanish colonial structure have been on the verge of collapse for decades. The Philippine Government and the UN has done what it could to do to shore them up, but there's a limit to what you can with monumental unreinforced masonry structures. I don't see any rescue work at those sites, and it appears the more modern buildings came though in reasonably good shape. Interestingly, some of these churches are approaching 400 years old, and show the basic strength of those type of structures, since they have survived many large earthquakes in the past. Unfortunately, when they do fail, they tend to do so catastrophically, and you have just a pile of ruble left.
Quoting 513. sar2401:

Evening, Allan. Indeed, Mitch was a weird October storm, and the type I'm more concerned about than the usual over Cuba and on to Florida storm this year. The conditions in the SW Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras are not as ideal as they were for Mitch, but they are much better than for a storm which has to fight its way north through the continental troughs and easterlies. It's very possible for a weak low to intensify into a hurricane in the GOH, cross Honduras, get picked up by some of the energy in the Eastern Pacific, get carried along through Central America, and then get slingshoted into the BOC and Gulf. What's missing is shear relaxation and a cold front in the Gulf to act as a highway for a Mitch-type storm. I know you are already aware of this, Allan, since you live in Honduras, for those who don't, even though Mitch was a "minimal" hurricane when it made landfall in Honduras, it sat offshore for two days and pummeled most of Honduras with 120 mph winds and 18" to 35" of rain, causing horrendous structural damage and massive flooding. No one knows how many died for sure, but it was over 7,000.

I'm not wishing harm on anyone but, if we get a tropical storm in the SW Caribbean, I hope it follows the path of its predecessors into Mexico. It would be the least damaging and least casualty rout it could follow.
You are right but I doubt I will ever see a track similar to Mitch as I believe it was 1 in 100.Mitch was devastating to us because it stall like you said near the coast leaving a lot of rain to us.Creating mudslides and landslides.
Quoting 526. sar2401:

... most people would think we were a little "off" to being with. My fiance already thinks that, and she supposedly loves me. :-)

Every once in awhile, some comment reminds me of Grothar, and how much I miss his humor on this blog. This is one of them.

I remember him commenting fairly regularly about how his spouse had trouble understanding his fascination with weather. And how when he mentioned his hobby a a dinner party, all the guests would stop chewing and stare at him with disbelief.

Grothar, wherever you are and whatever you're doing, I wish wish you well! Come back to us, if you can!

Wow, normally I just lurk, but I'm being a real Chatty Kathy tonight! Sorry. Shifting back into lurk mode...
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013
1100 PM PDT MON OCT 14 2013

...OCTAVE WEAKENING AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 112.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM N OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
Just a note from Naples Fl. Nea is to take with a grain of salt. His opinions are just his opinions. Also, been a member here since 1995, but my post number got reset when I got a new computer. I was over a 1000 before.
Quoting 537. swflurker:
Just a note from Naples Fl. Nea is to take with a grain of salt. His opinions are just his opinions. Also, been a member here since 1995, but my post number got reset when I got a new computer. I was over a 1000 before.


First, people can decide for themselves about Neapolitan. I find his posts witty and accurate.

Next, wunderground didn't start offering memberships until 2001. The oldest member that I have seen is applejack from July 4, 2001. You have not been a member since 1995. Neither has anyone else.

Third, the membership is stored on wunderground's servers. Your account doesn't reset when you get a new computer. Or use different computers. I have used this site from Asia, Africa, Europe, South America and the United States. I bet that most here have accessed wunderground from home, from their work computers, from their smartphone, etc. Getting a new computer doesn't erase your membership or reset your comments posted number
Quoting HurriHistory:

The late great Grady Norton can be seen throughout this film.

That was a some great video, especially about opening your house windows a crack. :-) I'm sure glad I wasn't flying hurricane/typhoon hunter missions in the PB4Y-2 Privateers. There were a single vertical stabilizer version of the B-24, and they had a nasty habit of losing things like a wing in flight. The Navy had several close calls before they finally put one into the ground in Bataan in 1951. By 1952, the Navy switched over to the PV-2 Neptune, a much newer and safer aircraft. The Navy also has an interesting history with the WC-121N Super Constellation, a "weather reconnaissance" aircraft that was used for other supposed weather investigations than hurricanes. In reality, the EC-121's spent a lot of their time shadowing Russian fleet operations and keeping track of Russian subs. The "weather recon" designation served as good cover for this kind of activity.
That was a good video HurriHistory.
You are correct! Sorry, 2005 was my when I joined here. But all my info was reset anyway.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


First, people can decide for themselves about Neapolitan. I find his posts witty and accurate.

Next, wunderground didn't start offering memberships until 2001. The oldest member that I have seen is applejack from July 4, 2001. You have not been a member since 1995. Neither has anyone else.

Third, the membership is stored on wunderground's servers. Your account doesn't reset when you get a new computer. Or use different computers. I have used this site from Asia, Africa, Europe, South America and the United States. I bet that most here have accessed wunderground from home, from their work computers, from their smartphone, etc.
Quoting sar2401:

Extremely deep (56 kilometers) and in a lightly populated area of Mindanao, so the damage and casualties should be minimal.


At this stage I am seeing a fair few building collapsed and the death toll is not up to 20.

Video....
Quake starts more or less straight away and goes to about 35 seconds.





Photo's of destruction.























Seismogram of the quake.

Phivolcs records 110 aftershocks

MANILA, Philippines – At least 110 aftershocks have been recorded hours after the 7.2 magnitude earthquake that rattled Central Visayas Tuesday.
Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology chief Renato Solidum said that there were 100 aftershocks recorded as of 11 a.m.
The strongest aftershock so far was recorded at 9:55 a.m. with a magnitude of 4.5.
He said the aftershocks may continue within the next several days but would diminish in time.
The 7.2 quake at 8:12 a.m. on Tuesday near Carmen, Bohol. It was widely felt in Visayas and Mindanao.


Cebu hospital catches fire, floor collapses due to earthquake

The fifth-floor of the Cebu Doctors University Hospital caught fire while another part collapsed on Tuesday after a 7.2-magnitude earthquake was felt in Cebu City, reports said.
“Part of (the) 2nd floor of Cebu Doctors Hospital collapsed while part of (the) 5th floor [caught] fire. Some nurses and patients are outside,” the Philippine Information Agency – Central Visayas said over Twitter.
One video posted online showed nurses, students and patients standing in front of the building while a doctor carried a baby.


EP, 15, 2013101506, , BEST, 0, 253N, 1121W, 30, 1004, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 120, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, OCTAVE, M,
EP, 16, 2013101506, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1159W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 40, 40, 30, 1010, 160, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, PRISCILLA, M,
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW
LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 112.0W
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NNE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013

MICROWAVE DATA REVEAL THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME DETACHED
FROM THE CONVECTION. IN FACT...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO
INDICATE THAT CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS STILL
LOCATED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHILE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER MAINLAND
MEXICO. THE STRONG WIND SHEAR AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE TERRAIN
WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL WEAKENING. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY AND DISSIPATE BY
WEDNESDAY.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS.
GIVEN THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM...LITTLE
MOTION OR PERHAPS A NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL
DISSIPATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 25.5N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 26.0N 111.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 16/0600Z 26.5N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162013
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013

...PRISCILLA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 116.0W
ABOUT 565 MI...905 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162013
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY
AND SEPARATED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THE LATEST DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM
TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT MAINTAINING AN INTENSITY OF 35 KT...WHICH
COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. THE EASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN
PLAGUING PRISCILLA IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TODAY BUT AT THE SAME
TIME THE CYCLONE WILL BE INGESTING DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO ITS
NORTHWEST. THESE UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE
PRISCILLA TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...AND PRISCILLA IS FORECAST TO BECOME
A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. IF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
DOES NOT RETURN LATER TODAY...THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A REMNANT
LOW MUCH SOONER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 355/7 KT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT PRISCILLA WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD VERY SOON AS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF A RIDGE OVER MEXICO BUILDS WESTWARD TO THE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY AND THIS GENERAL HEADING WITH SOME DECREASE IS FORWARD
SPEED SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK IS
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...DUE TO A LITTLE MORE
NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE
TO THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 17.1N 116.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 17.7N 116.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 18.5N 118.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 19.3N 119.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 19.8N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/0600Z 20.0N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Quoting 521. sar2401:

Did they have any deals on zombie ammo? I'm starting to run low on 7.62 x 39. Just can't conserve ammo if I'm going to keep those zombie killing skills up, ya know. I figure it's a just a mater of time until that radiation at Fukushima escapes into the atmosphere and water and, well, you know what happens to the neighbors then.... :-)


It already has. Salmon and herring are being pulled in by biologists in the U.S. and Canadian northwest with 100% bleeding from the eyes, mouth, and gills. This has NEVER happened before. Their migration pathways arch along Bering Sea down towards Japan and back.

The problem being ignored is Cesium-137. Much worse than "amount of radiation in a banana" the IAEA hacks and talking heads spout on prime time sound bytes.

Over 200 tons each day of highly radioactive water flowing under the reactors is gushing into the Pacific. The reactors have burned through 6" of steel containment and who knows how much concrete. And all the ice in the poles is not enough to stop the flow.

TEPCO has tried to cool the infernos with millions of gallons of water, which then becomes very radioactive, and store it on site. Those tanks were compromised in Sept (Dr. Masters referred to this). Danas, and how many more storms before the world wakes up to what may be the greatest threat ever in the northern hemisphere?

This should be the weather topic everywhere, but sadly only a few dare look, much less discuss.
Just to clarify something for sar2401 and anyone else interested - 56.0km depth is NOT extremely deep, especially considering the topography of the region where the tremor struck... AND it has since been updated to an estimated 20km, which is much much worse, obviously. Still, PAGER impact says a 43% chance of between 10 and 100 fatalities, and I would agree somewhat - though we are already at 30+, and surely the economic bill will be significant.
Quoting 535. EstherD:

Every once in awhile, some comment reminds me of Grothar, and how much I miss his humor on this blog. This is one of them.

I remember him commenting fairly regularly about how his spouse had trouble understanding his fascination with weather. And how when he mentioned his hobby a a dinner party, all the guests would stop chewing and stare at him with disbelief.

Grothar, wherever you are and whatever you're doing, I wish wish you well! Come back to us, if you can!

Wow, normally I just lurk, but I'm being a real Chatty Kathy tonight! Sorry. Shifting back into lurk mode...


Wow, Esther! I haven't heard the term "Chatty Kathy" in a long while! My sister had one, and the things were almost as big as she was at the time. She liked it not only for the string on the back that pulling on it made the recordings play, but because it had blonde hair like hers.

And that brought about Kathy's demise.

Our Dad came home late one winter evening and flipped on the living room light on the way in. He nearly had a heart attack as his peripherial caught the stone cold stare and blonde hair of Chatty Kathy, on her back on the floor, behind the couch where my sister left her.

Chatty Kathy did look a lot like my little sister, and was about the same size. So I can see how this would be disconcerting to Dad.

The doll disappeared the next day. It was a while before my sister transferred her affection to Barbie, and to this day Dad still dislikes poor Chatty Kathy.
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 72 degrees, heat index of 76 and humidity at 94%. We've a 40% chance of rain today which increases to 60% tonight. We've gone from severe to moderate drought, so this small rain every few days is helping.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: berry breakfast pizza, zucchini and yellow squash pancakes, Cinnamon French Toast Casserole, French Toast Roll-Ups, Cheesecake Burritos with strawberry topping, Apple slices dipped in pancake batter & cooked on the griddle with cinnamon & nutmeg, omelets with cheese, mushrooms, peppers and dice ham or bacon, Canadian bacon , sausage links, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
Good morning all. Tropics are quiet. It's a beautiful thing.
Good Morning Folks!................
the season was over back on june 1st i said .... next time peeps listen to me, it would have saved all alot of time sitting in here 24/ 7
Quoting 526. sar2401:

Yep, that was him. He's either a jerk, crazy, or both. I'm not a great fan on Neapolitan either, for a number of reasons, but why go around stalking someone, especially when you're doing it to a guy who's done you no harm?

I'm constantly amazed by the number of people who actually believe that posts either for or against any subject here have any meaning in the "real" world. We are just a bunch of geeks and science wonks writing back and forth, and most people would think we were a little "off" to being with. My fiance already thinks that, and she supposedly loves me. :-)


My wife refers to me posting on WU as "Are you off saving the planet again?". As for the Neapolitan obsession...it is quite creepy.
Quoting 559. PensacolaDoug:
Good morning all. Tropics are quiet. It's a beautiful thing.
Word.....oops . I too old fo dat..:)
Unfortunately my earlier post (#502) will maybe turn out to be a bit premature... Philippine Police have now raised the preliminary death toll from the 7.2 quake to at least 85, per Breakingnews.com :/
The final epilog for 98L.

NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al982013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201310150413
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
Quoting 563. calmmingaffect:
the season was over back on june 1st i said .... next time peeps listen to me, it would have saved all alot of time sitting in here 24/ 7

That's funny, you've had an account since three days ago...and on June 1st, you said?
Quoting 538. BaltimoreBrian:


First, people can decide for themselves about Neapolitan. I find his posts witty and accurate.

Next, wunderground didn't start offering memberships until 2001. The oldest member that I have seen is applejack from July 4, 2001. You have not been a member since 1995. Neither has anyone else.

Third, the membership is stored on wunderground's servers. Your account doesn't reset when you get a new computer. Or use different computers. I have used this site from Asia, Africa, Europe, South America and the United States. I bet that most here have accessed wunderground from home, from their work computers, from their smartphone, etc. Getting a new computer doesn't erase your membership or reset your comments posted number
Morning Brian. I like Nea too. He is accurate on many things. Did something happen to him.? I saw some glitches with the join dates, one of them said 1970...Imagine if we had this technology back then..:)
Quoting 568. Stormlover16:

That's funny, you've had an account since three days ago...and on June 1st, you said?
Lol..Instead of calmmingeffect, it should be mentaldeffect.
575. VR46L
Good Morning !

Looks like the Mid sector of the US is getting some welcome rains .

Sorry, woke up a little late this morning.
Thanks for flagging out his first comment.
The troll is gone now. :)
578. IKE
It could be....it might be.....over.......


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

&&
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
sharp drop off with frequency of atlantic systems but there is still plenty of moisture available and more in the the pipeline doubt its over
580. VR46L
Quoting 578. IKE:
It could be....it might be.....over.......


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

&&
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Did It ever start really this season ;)
Funny how when the troll was attacking me it wasn't "done and over with quickly" :)...Annny way...

I'm not giving up full hope that the hurricane season is down and out until the MJO comes around and leaves the area..If the MJO comes and nothing happens 2013 will go out as quietly as it came in.
The death toll from yesterday's M7.1 earthquake in the Philippines is up to 93 this morning per The Weather Channel.
583. IKE
Quoting VR46L:


Did It ever start really this season ;)
Not really.

No.

***gives up on ATL season...walks out of room***
584. NCstu
News of inland flooding in India is starting to come in. Mind boggling that it caught people off guard. They were forecasting 8" of rain in most places in the path of the storm...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-245301 93
Quoting 576. RTLSNK:
Sorry, woke up a little late this morning.
Thanks for flagging out his first comment.
The troll is gone now. :)


Awww, I missed it.

Speaking of trolls, has there been any sightings of "you-know-who" lately?
Quoting 568. Stormlover16:

That's funny, you've had an account since three days ago...and on June 1st, you said?


I think he is a familiar troll on a different account.
587. SLU
Quoting 582. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The death toll from yesterday's M7.1 earthquake in the Philippines is up to 93 this morning per The Weather Channel.


The damage pics from Aussie show a rather violent earthquake.
Witty?.. is that another word for sarcastic..



589. SLU
Quoting 578. IKE:
It could be....it might be.....over.......


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

&&
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Hindsight is 20/20 and I reckon after the fact that the season was already over since June 1st.

GFS giving me an extended period of cold.




And a snow event in fantastyland.

Quoting 581. washingtonian115:
Funny how when the troll was attacking me it wasn't "done and over with quickly" :)...Annny way...

I'm not giving up full hope that the hurricane season is down and out until the MJO comes around and leaves the area..If the MJO comes and nothing happens 2013 will go out as quietly as it came in.

SST's are cooling off rapidly, and shear will only pick up. It's over. Anything that forms will likely be a weak TS or moderate TS at best. It's over.
592. yoboi
Quoting 588. ncstorm:
Witty?.. is that another word for sarcastic..






It could be......
Quoting 591. Pocamocca:

SST's are cooling off rapidly, and shear will only pick up. It's over. Anything that forms will likely be a weak TS or moderate TS at best. It's over.
shear and dry air this year has been epic....i called it back in july when everyone was like omg it gonna be big year man!!! the year of the cat5 storm ya know. yeah right.conditions will only continue to be hostile...
time to throw in the towel and wrap her up eh.shear and dry air did a number on these systems. i feel bad for the hard core ones salvating from the mouth hoping the for the next rita or sandy.so painful to watch that go down...
What am I going to do with 12 cases of Fresca ?
Quoting 591. Pocamocca:

SST's are cooling off rapidly, and shear will only pick up. It's over. Anything that forms will likely be a weak TS or moderate TS at best. It's over.



Quoting 594. stormgirI:
time to throw in the towel and wrap her up eh.shear and dry air did a number on these systems. i feel bad for the hard core ones salvating from the mouth hoping the for the next rita or sandy.so painful to watch that go down...

At least they weren't pounding the climate change agenda down everyone's throat. And how is that climate change going. Seems like the last couple of years have been normal. Arctic ice is increasing. Heat waves and drought are down. Yeah? How is the GW going??
598. yoboi
Quoting 595. Patrap:
What am I going to do with 12 cases of Fresca ?


Do ya have some everclear????
Quoting 591. Pocamocca:

SST's are cooling off rapidly, and shear will only pick up. It's over. Anything that forms will likely be a weak TS or moderate TS at best. It's over.


The carribean is always a place to look at.
Tropical season may be a bust to many, but ex Karen and that coastal storm were more than enough to make me upset this year. Another year where I spent most of my fishing trip to the OBX inside. Had a few nice hours of weather as the center passed over, but other than that it was cool, rainy, and blustery. Got some fishing in on Friday, but surf was still so rough the action was pretty poor. At least we caught a few keepers so guess it could have been worse.
Quoting Patrap:
What am I going to do with 12 cases of Fresca ?


LOLOL, Good Morning all.

Hot, Bright day here, with the promise of Heat.
It's another Glorious day in Paradox.
Quoting 596. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:





The Caribbean can definately support a strong storm. We could see a system form (most likely a T.S, but could be a hurricane)and move north/northeast over Cuba (addded -or the islands DR/Hait, P.R.)out into the Atlantic. We usually see 1 or 2 of these type systems every year or so.
That would be the highest percentage system this time of year.
Quoting 597. snowballing:

At least they weren't pounding the climate change agenda down everyone's throat. And how is that climate change going. Seems like the last couple of years have been normal. Arctic ice is increasing. Heat waves and drought are down. Yeah? How is the GW going??

Ehem. I think it is pretty clear that the current drought conditions in TX--along with New Mexico anD Colorado--and the neighboring states are among the worst in history.

And it will only get worse, much worse. As long as trillions of tons of C02 is being pumped into the Earth's atmosphere per day, it is very hard to say whether or not things will ever get back to normal. I don't think I'd necessarily say GW is over. But you could dream, right? ;-)
Looks like Low pressure spin making landfall in Northeast Florida.

Late season majors (Late October - Nov) - information from Wunderground (give credit where credit is due)


1.
Kate
November 20 - 21, 1985
120
Florida Panhandle

2.
Wrong-way Lenny
November 17 - 18, 1999
155
Northern Lesser Antilles

3.
Hurricane Seven
November 17 - 18, 1912
115
South of Jamaica

4.
1932 Cuba Hurricane
November 5 - 10, 1932
135
Cuba

5.
Paloma
November 8, 2008
145
Cuba

6.

Greta
November 5 - 6, 1956
140
Mid-Atlantic

7.
Michelle
November 3 - 5, 2001
140
Cuba

8.
Beta
October 30, 2005
115
Nicaragua

9.
Hattie
October 28 - 31, 1961
160
Belize

10.
Mitch
October 25 - 28, 1998
180
Honduras

11.
Hurricane Nine
October 29, 1867
130
Northern Lesser Antilles

12.
Fox
October 26, 1952
115
Cuba


Quoting 37. RevElvis:
Increased human life expectancy correlates to increase in species extinction

As GDP per capita increases, so does the percentage of invasive species.


A study published by a team of biologists suggests that as a nation's population life expectancy increases, so does its percentage of invasive and endangered birds and mammals. It suggests that rather than population density alone being the largest threat to wildlife, it's the quality of life that matters most.

The very presence of humans is often blamed for the increasing numbers of extinct species on the planet. But a team of biologists from the University of California-Davis examined 15 economic, ecological, and social variables to judge which factors of that human presence are the biggest contributors to the downfall of species.

Expanding the survey to include the number of invasive species in a country revealed even more interesting results. Introducing a non-indigenous species to any given ecosystem can have devastating effects. Controlling the number of invasive species was identified as the greatest challenge threatening the Galapagos when the World Heritage Committee placed it on its danger list, for instance, and in the UK the introduction of the eastern gray squirrel from North America is blamed for devastating the red squirrel population, now down to under 200,000. What the report found, however, is that a combination of economic and social factors is responsible for this devastation—just as, in reality, deforestation and other factors have contributed to the fall of the red squirrel.

Taking in data from 100 countries, representing 87 percent of the world's total population and 43 percent of global GDP, the study focused on the following: GDP, export-import ratio, tourism, undernourishment, energy efficiency, agricultural intensity, rainfall, water stress, wilderness protection, biodiversity, life expectancy, adult literacy, pesticide regulation, political stability, and female participation in national government. It is a comprehensive look at the human impact on the landscape, but it became clear that life expectancy was the greatest correlating factor responsible for the damage.

"It's not a random pattern," says lead author Aaron Lotz, a postdoctoral scholar in the Department of Wildlife, Fish, and Conservation Biology at the time of the study. "Out of all this data, that one factor—human life expectancy—was the determining factor for endangered and invasive birds and mammals."

ARSTechnica.com
The cold is coming, except for Florida. Snowbirds here they come.

Hurricane Wilma didn't make the list because she formed on Oct. 15.
That's not considered late season occording to the list which starts in Late Oct.
Quoting 611. StormWx:
The cold is coming, except for Florida. Snowbirds here they come.

alot already here looking at all the out of state plates but they are welcomed here.
Quoting 612. Sfloridacat5:
Hurricane Wilma didn't make the list because she formed on Oct. 15.
That's not considered late season occording to the list which starts in Late Oct.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1...CORRECTION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2005

...CORRECTED BIN NUMBER...BIN 4 INSTEAD OF 3...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH CONVECTION AND SURFACE
CIRCULATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A 25-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE
CIRCULATION IS RATHER BROAD AND THE AREA OF MINIMUM PRESSURE COULD
BE ANYWHERE WITHIN 60 MILES FROM THE INITIAL POINT IN THE ADVISORY.
THIS IS COMMON IN DEVELOPING SYSTEMS. THE CYCLONE HAS NOT DEVELOPED
A TIGHT INNER CORE YET. DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SHOWS SO
FAR A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT WINDS WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1004 MB
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY
SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...AND WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. BOTH SHIPS AND THE
GFDL SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. IN FACT...THE GFDL MAKES THIS CYCLONE A VERY
INTENSE HURRICANE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN CUBA AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL...AND MORE ALONG THE
LINE OF THE SHIPS MODEL.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 3 KNOTS. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS BLOCKING ANY NORTHWARD
MOTION AND IS KEEPING VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...A SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 3
DAYS. BY THEN...A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE COULD DEVELOP OVER FLORIDA
AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GFDL...THE
UK...THE ECMWF AND THE NOGAPS MODELS. THE GFS DOES NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY DEVELOP THE CYCLONE AND DOES NOT CARRY THE SYSTEM
MORE THAN A DAY OR TWO.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE COULD BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS.
HOWEVER...BOTH GENESIS AND INTENSIFICATION ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE.

FORECASTER AVILA
Quoting 611. StormWx:
The cold is coming, except for Florida. Snowbirds here they come.



I live in Fort Myers and they start filling up the vacant houses in the neighborhood once Oct. hits. We have 2 neighbors that come down from Michigan and stay from Oct - April.
And I have to say the weather is usually beautiful during those months here.
So why does Russia get all the snow? It is like the snowfall is following their boarder.

I thought the post count was kinda low for hurricane season. When you kick off a troll, does the comment count go down?

Have you read "Global 2000 report to the President"?
Quoting 595. Patrap:
What am I going to do with 12 cases of Fresca ?




All these odd birds coming out of the weeds this morning.... maybe you should save it for January, when the anti-science really starts to flow.
Quoting 614. GeoffreyWPB:


TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1...CORRECTION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2005

...CORRECTED BIN NUMBER...BIN 4 INSTEAD OF 3...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH CONVECTION AND SURFACE
CIRCULATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A 25-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE
CIRCULATION IS RATHER BROAD AND THE AREA OF MINIMUM PRESSURE COULD
BE ANYWHERE WITHIN 60 MILES FROM THE INITIAL POINT IN THE ADVISORY.
THIS IS COMMON IN DEVELOPING SYSTEMS. THE CYCLONE HAS NOT DEVELOPED
A TIGHT INNER CORE YET. DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SHOWS SO
FAR A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT WINDS WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1004 MB
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY
SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...AND WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. BOTH SHIPS AND THE
GFDL SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. IN FACT...THE GFDL MAKES THIS CYCLONE A VERY
INTENSE HURRICANE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN CUBA AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL...AND MORE ALONG THE
LINE OF THE SHIPS MODEL.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 3 KNOTS. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS BLOCKING ANY NORTHWARD
MOTION AND IS KEEPING VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...A SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 3
DAYS. BY THEN...A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE COULD DEVELOP OVER FLORIDA
AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GFDL...THE
UK...THE ECMWF AND THE NOGAPS MODELS. THE GFS DOES NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY DEVELOP THE CYCLONE AND DOES NOT CARRY THE SYSTEM
MORE THAN A DAY OR TWO.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE COULD BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS.
HOWEVER...BOTH GENESIS AND INTENSIFICATION ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE.

FORECASTER AVILA


Scary discussion.
You don't see "dangerous hurricane" in 3-5 days in many discussions.
Oct 15 - T.D.
Oct 18 - Hurricane
24 hours later - cat 5
Quoting 595. Patrap:
What am I going to do with 12 cases of Fresca ?


Johnny Mathis lyrics; a little old school for the folks on here but relevant:

Yes, it's over, call it a day
Sorry that it had to end this way
No reason to pretend
We knew it had to end some day, this way


Atlantic Satellite...

Quoting 615. Sfloridacat5:


I live in Fort Myers and they start filling up the vacant houses in the neighborhood once Oct. hits. We have 2 neighbors that come down from Michigan and stay from Oct - April.
And I have to say the weather is usually beautiful during those months here.


What about the polluted water... that has to be hurting you. Will you be at the Rally on Saturday? Floridians for Clean Water
It may be over for the Hurricane Season... BUT it's not supposed to be over for the Rainy Season! October and November are supposed to be the wettest months with september...

BUT 2013 is A COMPLETE ANOMALY!! NO RAIN NO STORMS... 100% BUST and DISAPPOINTMENT.

To Ellen, #610
Nature CLOUD Study Author: ‘The Climate May Be More Sensitive Than Previously Thought’


Beef, it's what's for dinner.
I love ways to save the climate that involve steak.
625. SLU
Quoting 623. CaribBoy:
It may be over for the Hurricane Season... BUT it's not supposed to be over for the Rainy Season! October and November are supposed to be the wettest months with september...

BUT 2013 is A COMPLETE ANOMALY!! NO RAIN NO STORMS... 100% BUST and DISAPPOINTMENT.


A complete shocker of a season to be honest.
All for PR/VI and nothing for me. I can bet...

IN GENERAL...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE AND BECOME MORE ACTIVE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UNDER
INFLUENCE OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH PATTERN ALOFT AND THE ARRIVAL OF
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE.
Nari is hanging in there even throughout the land it needs to cross to get back in the "rocket fuel" the ocean has.... Not likely it will pull all the way through though, I believe only one or two storms in recorded history have done this..... If someone can verify this, it would be great...

This wave has a chance.
Wipha.
Cool polar low was out there yesterday.

Quoting 623. CaribBoy:
It may be over for the Hurricane Season... BUT it's not supposed to be over for the Rainy Season! October and November are supposed to be the wettest months with september...

BUT 2013 is A COMPLETE ANOMALY!! NO RAIN NO STORMS... 100% BUST and DISAPPOINTMENT.


The fat lady won't sing the end of the season until November 30th (offically).

Hopefully you will get something out of 98L remnants.
Can anyone tell me what the difference is between MJO Phase 8 and 1? Is 8 near the Americas and 1 near Africa?

Thanks
Area of disturbed weather in the far eastern atlantic a few hundred miles WSW of the cape verde islands continues to have an interesting look about it. Ironically in the same position of the disturbance that spawned Tomas in october of 2010.
Yesterday the EURO in the 12z run did show show a disturbance nearing the windward islands around next Monday Something to watch the next few days
invest 93W has formed in the west pacific.

Here is the intensity forecasts for this system.

Quoting 289. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Hello and good evening everyone from a rainy Daytona Beach, FL. I was doing some thinking last night, and I am starting to wonder if this is a transition year for the Atlantic Hurricane Season? I mean before 2009, we had a lot of land bound hurricanes and major hurricanes. Of note was Ike, Gustav, Felix, Dean, and of course the 2004-2005 hurricanes which would take me a whole year to list off. 2009 was probably a transition to OTS bound hurricanes because quite frankly almost every storm from 2010-2012 has recurved OTS with a few exceptions. 2013 may very well be a transition year and we will see if starting next year we see a rebound to land bound hurricanes. I also wonder if hurricane season goes through a 10-year cycle, if indeed it does, then 2014 would be a lot like 2004.
Hello, and that is a good question. Hurricane seasons do appear to go through cycles, and there are several recent writings and news stories about that topic. Beginning in 1995, we entered a period of increased storm activity in the Atlantic, when we had 19 named storms. Overall, since 1995, except for a few seasons (including 2013), major storm activity in the Atlantic basin has been above the long term average. From 1970-1994, we were in a slower cycle of storm activity; however, we still had several strong hurricanes hit the USA. If you look back before 1970, there were several cycles that lasted 20-30 years where storm activity was above the average, or below the average number of named storms.

Getting back to the question of landfalling hurricanes occurring in cycles, it does sometimes seem to happen, but not necessarily in 10 year cycles.

During the 1940s, Florida was hit often with major hurricanes. In the 50s, the focus shifted to the Atlantic east coast - they were slammed with several major hurricane stikes. The 1960s and 1970s saw many major hurricanes strike the US Gulf Coast, and Florida. During the mid 1980s and 1990s, the Gulf Coast continued to get slammed. We still had some major hurricanes hit the East coast and S. Florida, such as Hugo, and, Andrew. The 2000s, especially the 2004-2005 and 2008 historical hurricane seasons, we saw hurricanes in record numbers, where Florida and the Gulf Coast continued to get slammed by major storms. It was just unbelievable! Hurricane Katrina was the most costliest and one of the most deadly to hit the US coast. Rita and Wilma also slammed into the US.

Since 2010-2012, although we had record numbers of named storms occurring in the Atlantic Basin, most of them were OTS. Luckily for the USA, there has been a persistant trough that has protected us, and turned the storms northward, and northeastward, harmlessly away from coastal areas. And it appears that hurricanes might be shifting their focus back to the Atlantic seaboard (Irene 2011 and Sandy 2012). The next few hurricane seasons will tell us how the trends are going to play out.

If you look at hurricane strikes at one region of the coast, it might appear as if there is roughly a 10 year cycle: Here are some examples - SE Louisiana to NW Florida

- The Central Gulf Coast was hit by Hurricane Hilda in 1964, and Betsy in 1965.

- 10 years later, Hurricane Carmen (1974) and Eloise (1975) slammed into the northern Gulf Coast.

- In 1985, Hurricanes Danny, Elena, Juan, and Kate plowed into the northern Gulf coast.

- 10 years after that, in 1995, Hurricanes Erin and Opal slammed into the northern Gulf Coast.

- 2004-2005 Hurricanes Ivan, Cindy, Dennis, and Katrina slammed the northern Gulf Coast.

Looking at all of this historical information, should residents living on the Gulf Coast between Vermillion Bay, LA and Apalachicola, FL be getting ready for a major hurricane strike in 2014-2015? I would !! However; this 10 year trend of hurricane strikes in that area might just be a coincidence, or bad luck.

There are so many influences that cause the storms to strike the USA, or turn out to sea. Upper level winds, the general steering patterns of that particular year, El-Nino, La Nina, the location of the jet stream and cold fronts, the location of the Bermuda High pressure, are some of the big influences that will control whether a storm will go OTS or hit land.

Quoting 628. hydrus:
This wave has a chance.




nop it dos not have a ch
Quoting 627. Torito:
Nari is hanging in there even throughout the land it needs to cross to get back in the "rocket fuel" the ocean has.... Not likely it will pull all the way through though, I believe only one or two storms in recorded history have done this..... If someone can verify this, it would be great...



This is the most recent one I can find...

Severe tropical storm Yvette. (1995)

Tropical storm kim, 1983..

Super typhoon hope, 1979.

Here comes the rain again...falling on my head like a new emotion...
6Z GFS wow look at all the snow
What's up with that little guy in the center of this image? This is off of the Carolinas, by the way.

kind of strange day weather wise by me..2 weeks of clear skies,low humidity and warmth..today overcast,cool and damp...must be a change is coming for the tampa bay area.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
954 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013

FLZ033-151500-
ST. JOHNS-
954 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ST. JOHNS
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS VALID UNTIL 1100 AM EDT...

AT 953 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
RAIN BAND WITH HEAVY SHOWERS CENTERED 4 MILES EAST OF SOUTH PONTE
VEDRA BEACH...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH. THIS BAND WILL ALSO AFFECT
AREAS AROUND GUANA RIVER STATE PARK...SOUTH PONTE VEDRA
BEACH...VILANO BEACH...ANASTASIA...NOCATEE...SAINT
AUGUSTINE...DURBIN...WORLD GOLF VILLAGE...FRUIT COVE AND BAKERSVILLE
THROUGH 1100 AM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED WEAK
ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP WITH LITTLE OR NO
ADVANCE WARNING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2976 8150 3010 8166 3012 8154 3010 8154
3011 8144 3014 8143 3015 8134 2994 8129
2990 8126 2989 8126
TIME...MOT...LOC 1353Z 063DEG 14KT 3004 8127

$$
Quoting 520. BaltimoreBrian:
sar2401 that one yesterday, napleswebdesigner (or something like that) was a sockpuppet used by one of the people who hates Neapolitan. One time winter before last that handle commented on my blog posting a bunch of weird crap. I banned him. But before I got rid of him I traced the IP.

The IP he posted from traced back to North Richland Hills, TX, a suburb of Fort Worth, TX. A long way from Naples FL.
Awesome Brian. I bet if we could IP trace a lot of these deniers, they would trace to the same basement office on Energy Row in Houston. LOL, Speculation, Just sayin'. Also I think that they must get paid by the line, even counting the lines of the posts of those who respond to them. If you must respond, just cite the post number, making it harder for the bots to catch word count for the paycheck.
649. SLU
Quoting 635. stoormfury:
Area of disturbed weather in the far eastern atlantic a few hundred miles WSW of the cape verde islands continues to have an interesting look about it. Ironically in the same position of the disturbance that spawned Tomas in october of 2010.
Yesterday the EURO in the 12z run did show show a disturbance nearing the windward islands around next Monday Something to watch the next few days


Development might be possible in the WCAR next week as the MJO pulse arrives.

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR NASSAU...DUVAL...AND ST. JOHNS COUNTIES
TODAY...

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THIS MORNING FOR THE EAST COAST...

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY...

...ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 30 MPH TODAY MAINLY
AT THE BEACHES OF NASSAU...DUVAL...AND ST. JOHNS COUNTY.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE
EAST COAST FROM ST. AUGUSTINE NORTHWARD. MINOR FLOODING MAY OCCUR
MAINLY NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE DUE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND
ELEVATED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT EAST COAST BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY DUE TO
AN ONSHORE FLOW AND EASTERLY SWELLS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

$$

MZ
Nari is hanging in there..... Somehow it appears to have gained back some strength in the last few frames of this...

Quoting 644. Torito:
What's up with that little guy in the center of this image? This is off of the Carolinas, by the way.



Looks like a little TD. It's probably an MCV though.
Quoting 653. FunnelVortex:


Looks like a little TD. It's probably an MCV though.


Its really tiny, like tropical storm marco of 2008. :P

Quoting 648. Pipejazz:
Awesome Brian. I bet if we could IP trace a lot of these deniers, they would trace to the same basement office on Energy Row in Houston. LOL, Speculation, Just sayin'. Also I think that they must get paid by the line, even counting the lines of the posts of those who respond to them. If you must respond, just cite the post number, making it harder for the bots to catch word count for the paycheck.


I'm POSITIVE the other side of the argument has robots working for them as well..its very evident on this blog and rood's blog..all you have to do is say GW is a hoax and like a swarm of locusts, here come the avengers..I agree lets do that but for both sides of argument..oh wait..we only want one side of the debate heard though..

(goes back to lurking)
Quoting 643. SFLWeatherman:
6Z GFS wow look at all the snow


will be an interesting pattern for the upcoming winter if it holds..
www.nytimes.com Asia Pacific

Major Earthquake Strikes Central Philippines



Patients and family members outside a hospital following an aftershock on Tuesday in Cebu City, Philippines.


By FLOYD WHALEY
Published: October 14, 2013


MANILA — A powerful earthquake violently shook the central Philippines on Tuesday morning, killing at least 67 people, injuring hundreds and smashing one of the country’s oldest churches, officials said.

The earthquake was centered about 32 miles underground near the small town of Carmen, on the island of Bohol, and struck at 8:12 a.m., said Renato Solidum, the director of the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology.

“A magnitude seven earthquake has an energy equivalent to around 32 Hiroshima atomic bombs,” Mr. Solidum said. “This one had a magnitude of 7.2.”

The tremors reverberated across adjacent islands of the central Philippines, toppling structures and sending panicked people into the streets.

“I was asleep and my bed started shaking very hard,” said Jessa Ariola, a 23-year-old resident of Tagbilaran, a city near the earthquake’s center. She said that after the tremors stopped she went to the restaurant where she works as a cashier and found it in ruins — with broken glass, toppled appliances and raw meat scattered on the floor.

Local television showed obliterated buildings, cracked roads, downed bridges and chaotic evacuations on Bohol. The quake also damaged major buildings in Cebu City, a heavily populated commercial center on a nearby island. Among those hit were a sprawling shopping mall, a prominent hospital and a busy public market.

The main airport on Bohol was temporarily closed, as were several ports in the central Philippines, while officials inspected them for safety.

The damaged structures in Cebu included the Santo Niño de Cebu Basilica, which was founded in 1565. On Bohol, the roof of the Church of San Pedro in Loboc, which dates to 1602, collapsed. Officials said as many as 10 other historic churches appeared to have been damaged.

The earthquake killed at least 67 people. Dozens died on the island of Bohol, 15 in nearby Cebu and 1 on the neighboring island of Siquijor, according to the National Disaster Risk Reduction Management Council. The island of Cebu, which is adjacent to Bohol, where the earthquake was centered, experienced extensive damage and injuries because it is more heavily populated, officials said.

People killed included a 4-year-old girl who was trampled in the town of Toledo, on Cebu island, when the earthquake shook a building where people were receiving cash grants from a government program to help the poor. In addition to the child who died, 19 people were injured there during a stampede out of the wobbling structure.

Officials on Tuesday afternoon were warning local residents to keep out of major buildings until their structural integrity could be verified. They also warned of landslides amid reports of aftershocks on the two most affected islands.

Electric power was disrupted in many of the affected areas. No tsunami warning was issued because the earthquake was land-based, an official of the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology said during a morning news briefing.

President Benigno S. Aquino III will visit the affected areas on Wednesday, a spokesman said. The islands of Cebu and Bohol have been declared in a state of calamity by the government, which authorizes additional national government assistance to the areas.

A 6.8-magnitude earthquake struck the same island on Feb. 8, 1990, and damaged more than 3,000 houses. Last year, a 6.9-magnitude quake hit near the island of Negros, also in the central Philippines, and killed nearly 100 people.

A version of this article appears in print on October 15, 2013, on page A11 of the New York edition with the headline: Major Earthquake Strikes Central Philippines.

Quoting 656. hydrus:
looks like this coming front will be stronger than the last one was..hope no damaging winds etc and the remnants of Octave will get added to it looks like.
Interesting I didn't know at one time the HURDAT used X, Y, Z names. They stopped using it in 1960. Wonder why they got rid of them? By the way the name Florence has been used since the 1953 Atlantic Hurricane Season and still to this day exists in the list of names. That is 60 years and counting. She will be back for another go at retirement in 2018. Dolly has also been around since 1953, she will be making a return next year, so cue that one since 65 years is usually the retirement age for humans.



Quoting 653. FunnelVortex:


Looks like a little TD. It's probably an MCV though.


Those things can be deadly, too... an MCV caused this...

Link
18Z GFS


6Z GFS
Quoting 664. Torito:


Those things can be deadly, too... an MCV caused this...

Link


Oh yes, the MCV that looked like an inland TC. I wish I was on the blog in 2009...
out of all the severe weather events except maybe tornado's..earthquakes scare me the most...as a young teenager i was in a 5.0 earthquake..i cannot describe it cause i never felt one before that..really scared me and to this day i dont want to experience a strong one ever again...something is very very wrong with the ground beneath you swaying almost violently huh.
I concur, but a Earthquake is a geological event, not weather.

; )
Quoting 667. LargoFl:
out of all the severe weather events except maybe tornado's..earthquakes scare me the most...as a young teenager i was in a 5.0 earthquake..i cannot describe it cause i never felt one before that..really scared me and to this day i dont want to experience a strong one ever again...something is very very wrong with the ground beneath you swaying almost violently huh.


The strongest I have felt was a 3.3, 2 years or so ago when we had that quake in Maryland...
Quoting 656. hydrus:


What does this mean for us in Wisconsin? Any snow?
Quoting 667. LargoFl:
out of all the severe weather events except maybe tornado's..earthquakes scare me the most...as a young teenager i was in a 5.0 earthquake..i cannot describe it cause i never felt one before that..really scared me and to this day i dont want to experience a strong one ever again...something is very very wrong with the ground beneath you swaying almost violently huh.


An earthquake isnt weather.
Accuweather has a high of 59 and a low of 41 on October 26th. It would be amazing if it actually snowed that far south this early in the season. What would be even more weird is if we get a tropical system trying to come up from the Western Caribbean during that time frame.
oh cares about the MJO any more it fail big time this season evere time we said a big pulse was comeing it did not happen



the MJO pulse has been in the W PAC and E PAC all season why you think the E PAC has 18 name storms ??? other big fail they where forcast too have a be low norml season well that was a ooops
Quoting 668. Patrap:
I concur, but a Earthquake is a geological event, not weather.

; )


my reaction would be biological... :)
Quoting 668. Patrap:
I concur, but a Earthquake is a geological event, not weather.

; )
hmm??? While I would agree with you, there is an exception where weather and a geologic event is involved, and that would be called a mudslide/landslide or even an avalanche.
Will we see something this impressive this winter??... I hope not, but I got that weary feeling right now....

Quoting 657. ncstorm:


I'm POSITIVE the other side of the argument has robots working for them as well..its very evident on this blog and rood's blog..all you have to do is say GW is a hoax and like a swarm of locusts, here come the avengers..I agree lets do that but for both sides of argument..oh wait..we only want one side of the debate heard though..

(goes back to lurking)
No robots; just people dedicated to keeping the fora focused on scientific fact, not uninformed opinion and ideological nonsense.
Quoting 670. FunnelVortex:


What does this mean for us in Wisconsin? Any snow?
Too far out for consideration, but this would indicate an early start for winter.
Quoting 676. Torito:
Will we see something this impressive this winter??... I hope not, but I got that weary feeling right now....



But I loved that storm. Me wanna see it again :)
Quoting 676. Torito:
Will we see something this impressive this winter??... I hope not, but I got that weary feeling right now....

Or this. :D

Anyone remember the Nor'easter that formed from the remnants of hurricane ida in 2009? (Nor'ida LOL)?

Link
I was at Boot Camp on the 3rd Floor Barracks pulling firewatch in a Open dormlike structure as the Platoon was at Chow.

As I walked between the Racks and the windows along the Airport side, suddenly the window panes went to moving like in slow motion.

Being from NOLA I was like, WTH?

Then the temblor hit the building in a uplifting motion.

Earthquake! the Brain screamed.

I'm purty sure I then set a New record for dashing down the 3 flights o stairs to the Street.


Quoting 683. Torito:


There is a second swirl south of that minicane.
Quoting 665. SFLWeatherman:
18Z GFS


6Z GFS


Um, yuck. Been an "Indian Summer" here the past few weeks, and loving every minute of it. This means I may have to finally re-arrange the shed and get the plow out.
Quoting 683. Torito:

Cool little mesoscale spins up on top of that inverted surface trough.



Quoting 680. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Or this. :D

Remember that one well..It was bad.
People on here keep talking about the Earth being round or even spherical. It is totally one sided. Flat earthers don't get their side or actually 2 sides mentioned at all.
Why aren't the scientists or peer reviewed articles giving the flat truth of the issue?

AGW uses aliens and zombies, not robots.
Quoting 688. hydrus:
Remember that one well..It was bad.
Storm of the Century.

Quoting 682. Patrap:
I was at Boot Camp on the 3rd Floor Barracks pulling firewatch in a Open dormlike structure as the Platoon was at Chow.

As I walked between the Racks and the windows along the Airport side, suddenly the window panes went to moving like in slow motion.

Being from NOLA I was like, WTH?

Then the temblor hit the building in a uplifting motion.

Earthquake! the Brain screamed.

I'm purty sure I then set a New record for dashing down the 3 flights o stairs to the Street.




Earned a couple hours of intimate exercise with my rifle over a challenge. Had the watch and someone approached.. "halt, who goes there?" "Superman!" "Okay, then fly your azz over here and be identified!" Absolutely the wrong thing to say to a CPO..when you are a boot.
Quoting 656. hydrus:
For the past three years some bad has happened between the 28 or the 29th of October.Nature is stuck on replay..Snow is so close but yet so far away..
Quoting 684. FunnelVortex:


There is a second swirl south of that minicane.


I know. Both of them are rather interesting to watch. :)
Quoting 641. Torito:
Super typhoon hope, 1979.



Typhoon Gay, 1989.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Gay_(1989)

Someone teach me how to put images up.
Quoting 692. washingtonian115:
For the past three years some bad has happened between the 28 or the 29th of October.Nature is stuck on replay..Snow is so close but yet so far away..
Yeah, I think it is our turn to witness some violent weather, nature has a way of balancing things out, and while this hurricane season has been a dud, that's not to say this tranquil weather will continue into the winter season. If we stay at ENSO Neutral conditions, something like the '93 storm is not out of the question.
Quoting 643. SFLWeatherman:
6Z GFS wow look at all the snow
All lies!.It'll perhaps be only cold rain we'll be getting.
Quoting 671. FunnelVortex:


An earthquake isnt weather.


mmm...

Earthquakes have been known to trigger what is called Earthquake Weather. A phenomena which causes the night sky to go in flames(metaphorically speaking) before the event(kinda like an aura if you will).

Also they have been known to slightly off-tick the rotation of the Earth(which is one thing that drives the weather).
Quoting 692. washingtonian115:
For the past three years some bad has happened between the 28 or the 29th of October.Nature is stuck on replay..Snow is so close but yet so far away..


well, I was up there.. looked EVERYWHERE for you, but no joy... *cries*

we had just left when the crazy lady got herself shot. I will NEVER spend 36 of 48 hours on a bus again.. ever..
699. yoboi
Quoting 657. ncstorm:


I'm POSITIVE the other side of the argument has robots working for them as well..its very evident on this blog and rood's blog..all you have to do is say GW is a hoax and like a swarm of locusts, here come the avengers..I agree lets do that but for both sides of argument..oh wait..we only want one side of the debate heard though..

(goes back to lurking)


That would explain the al gore picture I see being flashed in the sky......the code has been exposed....
Quoting 698. indianrivguy:


well, I was up there.. looked EVERYWHERE for you, but no joy... *cries*

we had just left when the crazy lady got herself shot. I will NEVER spend 36 of 48 hours on a bus again.. ever..
I was in a candy red range rover riverguy!.Are you sure you didn't see me?.Yeah it was probably best for you guys to leave after when the lady got herself shot.They have bulked up security even more since that incident.Did you guys at least get people to pay attention to what you were doing?.I told some of my neighbors.Did a guy name Matt show up? he said he went downtown.
Quoting 657. ncstorm:


I'm POSITIVE the other side of the argument has robots working for them as well..its very evident on this blog and rood's blog..all you have to do is say GW is a hoax and like a swarm of locusts, here come the avengers..I agree lets do that but for both sides of argument..oh wait..we only want one side of the debate heard though..

(goes back to lurking)


You got me. You have to admit, I am an excellent demonstration of improvement in Artificial Intelligence programming. :)

Quoting 700. washingtonian115:
I was in a candy red range rover riverguy!.Are you sure you didn't see me?.Yeah it was probably best for you guys to leave after when the lady got herself shot.They have bulked up security even more since that incident.Did you guys at least get people to pay attention to what you were doing?.I told some of my neighbors.Did a guy name Matt show up? he said he went downtown.


Yes, we were the only game in town.. and that's where the camera's were.. so they trickled in to get face time and appear to be bi-partisan.. mostly, they patted each other on their backs so long, we were left with very little comment time.. It was however, worth it.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 702. indianrivguy:


Yes, we were the only game in town.. and that's where the camera's were.. so they trickled in to get face time and appear to be bi-partisan.. mostly, they patted each other on their backs so long, we were left with very little comment time.. It was however, worth it.
I don't understand why they didn't give you a lot of time to talk about what you were doing.But it's good your getting the word out about the water problems going on in lake O and the environment disaster.