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Powerful Cyclone Phailin not a Mega-Disaster for India

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:56 PM GMT on October 13, 2013

Tropical Cyclone Phailin has weakened to a tropical storm over northern India after making landfall on the northeast coast of India near the town of Gopalpur (population 7,000) at 15:45 UTC (11:45 am EDT) on Saturday, October 12, 2013. According to media reports from the BBC, the cyclone brought a storm surge in excess of 3 meters (10 feet) to portions of the coast, and at least fourteen people had been killed by the storm. Phailin was weakening substantially at landfall, due to interaction with land, and was rated a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), four hours before landfall. The pressure bottomed out at 938 mb in Gopalpur as the eye passed over, and the city reported sustained winds of 56 mph, gusting to 85 mph, in the eyewall. A 938 mb pressure is what one expects to find in a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds, using the "Dvorak technique" of satellite wind and pressure estimation, but I expect Phailin's winds were at Category 3 strength, 125 - 130 mph, at landfall, due to the eyewall replacement cycle that was going on at the time. The India Meteorology Department (IMD) still rated Phailin as a Category 2 storm with winds over 100 mph six hours after making landfall, when it was about 60 miles inland. Satellite images show that Phailin's most intense thunderstorms and heaviest rains are no longer near the coast, but have pushed inland near the India/Nepal border. Rainfall amounts as high as 9.49" (241 mm) were reported in the Odisha region where Phailin made landfall.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phailin, taken at approximately 07:30 UTC on October 13, 2013. At the time, Phailin was a tropical storm with winds 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

A victory for India's cyclone evacuation and preparation efforts
While we have yet to hear from the worst affected area, the town of Gopalpur in Odisha where the eye of Phailin came ashore, it is clear that India has avoided a humanitarian mega-disaster like occurred in October 1999, when the great 1999 Odisha Cyclone killed nearly 10,000 people in the same region of the county. The India Meteorology Department (IMD) provided excellent early warning information for Phailin, predicting on October 9 that the cyclone would strike on October 12 with at least Category 2-strength winds. Civil defense in India took the warnings seriously, and operated the largest evacuation effort in the nation's history--nearly 1 million people--one that undoubtedly saved hundreds of lives. There were far more shelters available to put the evacuees in, compared to in 1999, thanks to a major effort to build more shelters after the cyclone. The high death toll in the 1999 cyclone was blamed, in part, due to lack of shelters.

How strong was Phailin?
According to satellite strength estimates made by the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Phailin was just as strong as the great 1999 Odisha Cyclone, 12 hours before landfall. Both storms were rated as Category 5 storms with winds of 160 mph. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) strength estimates for Phailin were considerably lower than that of JTWC, but since both centers use satellite estimates rather than direct measurements of the winds and pressure, we don't know which center was correct. It is true that satellite estimates using the same techniques give different central pressures for the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans--i.e., a storm with the same appearance on satellite imagery will have a higher pressure in the Atlantic than in the Pacific (see this chart of the differences.) However, the satellite estimates give the same winds for each ocean, since the lower pressures in the Pacific are due to the fact that background pressures in the Pacific are lower, and it takes a much lower central pressure to generate the same winds as in an Atlantic storm. It may be the satellite-wind relationship is different in the Indian Ocean, though. IMD has looked at some buoy data to try and calibrate their satellite strength estimates, but high-end tropical cyclones are uncommon enough in the Indian Ocean that I doubt we really know whether or not Indian Ocean cyclones have the same winds as a hurricane in the Atlantic with the same satellite signature. Another thing to consider is that the IMD uses 3-minute average winds for their advisories, and JTWC uses 1-minute, so the winds in the IMD advisories will be lower by at least 2%, due to the longer averaging period. (I said incorrectly that IMD uses 10-minute averaging times in my Saturday blog post.) We need a hurricane hunter aircraft in the Indian Ocean to fly into tropical cyclones and take measurements of the actual winds to resolve the issue.


Figure 2. Triple trouble: Tropical Cyclone Phailin, Typhoon Nari, and Typhoon Wipha parade across the Earth in this MODIS satellite image montage taken on October 13, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Nari heads for Vietnam
Category 2 Typhoon Nari is headed for landfall in Vietnam, after battering the Philippines on Friday. Nari killed thirteen people and left 2.1 million people without power on the main Philippine island of Luzon, after hitting on Friday night near midnight local time as a Category 3 typhoon with 115 mph winds. The core of the storm passed about 80 miles north of the capital of Manila, sparing the capital major flooding, but the storm dumped torrential rains in excess of ten inches to the northeast of Manilla. Nari is under moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, which should keep intensification relatively slow, and increasing interaction with land will also act to slow intensification. Nari is expected to be at Category 1 strength when it makes landfall in Vietnam near 20 - 23 UTC on Monday.

Typhoon Wipha a threat to Japan
Huge and powerful Category 4 Typhoon Wipha continues intensifying as it heads northwest towards Japan. The storm is expected to peak at 145 mph winds on Monday near 12 UTC. By Tuesday, Wipha will recurve to the northeast and begin weakening, passing just offshore from Tokyo, Japan, sometime between 00 - 06 UTC on Wednesday. Wipha will be rapidly weakening as it makes its closest approach to Tokyo, due to high wind shear and cooler waters, and the coast of Japan should experience winds below hurricane force if the core of Wipha passes offshore as expected. High winds and heavy rains from Wipha may be a concern for the Fukushima nuclear site, where rainfall from Typhoon Man-Yi on September 16 complicated clean-up efforts of the reactors damaged by the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami.

98L in the Eastern Atlantic disorganized
A tropical wave (Invest 98L) 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is headed west-northwest at 10 mph. Satellite loops show that 98L has lost most of its organization and heavy thunderstorms. The disturbance is under a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear, and the shear is expected to remain high for the next two days. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 10%, and 5-day odds of 10%. 98L's projected west-northwest track is expected take it close to the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Thursday, according to the 00Z Sunday run of the European model.

Moisture associated with Tropical Storm Octave in the Eastern Pacific bringing rain to Texas
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Octave is headed NNW towards Mexico's Baja Peninsula, but is expected to dissipate before making it there. Octave is embedded in a large plume of tropical moisture that is riding up to the northeast over Mexico and Texas. Flood Watches are posted over large regions of Texas, where widespread rains of 2 - 4", with some 6 - 8" amounts, are expected.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks, Dr. M! I have seen numbers as high as 800,000 for the number of people evacuated. seems the Indian government did a superb job with this.
thursday looks to be stormy up in the northeast huh...
Thanks Doc !

Feel for those who lost live, but its a great result for preparedness and sensible evacuations
Thanks J. Masters, definitelly good news forecasted for Japan...

img src="">
Thank you for the new blog Dr. Jeff Masters.
Thanks for the update Doc. Looks like India did a nice job at evacuating everyone before landfall. The death toll is much lower than I feared it would be.
Thanks for the update, Doc,
Thanks Dr. Masters!

I'm very relieved that Phailin didn't turn out to be another catastrophic tropical cyclone like the 1999 cyclone.
this blob in the gulf crosses fla/ga,,then up the east coast..could be the coming nor'easter in later runs..
I'm not quite as sanguine as Dr. Masters about India escaping with the low death tolls reported so far. The major death and destruction will come inland, from flooding and landslides. Even with a high storm surge, the area around Gopalpur has a coastline that's about 20-35 meters high on average, so storm surge will not be as big an issue as with most South Asian typhoons. I'll wait to hear from the Indian Red Cross, which provides accurate data about casualties, before breathing a sigh of relief.
Thanks, Dr. Masters.
gfs at 218 hours,blob now off the east coast.....
Beautiful weekend here..not a drop of rain..........
Ft.Lauderdale Beach this morning.............
Thanks Dr. Masters for the updated blog entry..
Am very happy that loss of life seems at this point to be low..
Kudos to the tremendous efforts on behalf of the Indian Gov..
Thanks again..
Thanks Dr. Masters


Looks like we're the fools and the IMD/Indian news media knew what they were doing all along. Guess that's what happens when you try to butt into other peoples' affairs. Perhaps we are so desensitized to media hype here that we perceived the Indian procedure to be irresponsible and underdone. Oh well, happy to be wrong in this instance.

Still gotta worry about this beast, though:

Quoting 18. wxgeek723:
Thanks Dr. Masters


Looks like we're the fools and the IMD/Indian news media knew what they were doing all along. Guess that's what happens when you try to butt into other peoples' affairs. Perhaps we are so desensitized to media hype here that we perceived the Indian procedure to be irresponsible and underdone. Oh well, happy to be wrong in this instance.

Still gotta worry about this beast, though:


Social media is an amazing thing these days. I think that is one of the main contributors for the low death toll. The evacuations by public officials certainly helped. Looks like the lesson was learned after the '99 cyclone.
Wipha is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. Convection surrounding the eye has been warming while convection towards the outer edges of the central dense overcast has been cooling. A moat is developing between the two.

Insane rainfall totals occurred last night and up to this morning which forced the cancellation of the Austin City Limits festival today... below are some of the rainfall totals, and many locations received 6" of rain in 3 hours. Peak total was in excess of 12 inches just a mile northeast of my location. This will surely help some with the drought but may cause some damage and nagging pains for ACL goers.


IMD also nailed the storm surge.
Thanks, Dr. Masters for the concise, reality and fact-based update on Cyclone Phailin and its impact on India's Bay of Bengal coast.

It was sad to watch commenters here the last couple of days continuously trashing the Indian government and the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

I was impressed, however, with the number of intelligent and reasoned commenters who discussed the Phailin situation rationally without value judgements. Their comments provided valuable ongoing insight into the developing cyclone that complemented your periodic blog posts. These are the same people whose posts I regularly read with respect to Atlantic tropical weather and U.S. Severe weather. They are quite an amazing bunch, and I often plus their comments. You guys and gals really add a lot to this blog!

In spite of a lot less funding and technology, it appears that IMD and the Indian government did a pretty good job with their forecasting and preparation for this storm.

However, as SAR says, there is still danger from flooding as the water from the heavy rains in the mountains pours down the rivers to the sea.
Quoting Hurricane1216:
Insane rainfall totals occurred last night and up to this morning which forced the cancellation of the Austin City Limits festival today... below are some of the rainfall totals, and many locations received 6" of rain in 3 hours. Peak total was in excess of 12 inches just a mile northeast of my location.




Austin, Austin, Austin....(As in Marsha, Marsha, Marsha)

I sat at my house in San Antonio and watched as storms formed and moved directly to Austin. Zip rainfall here. Uvalde got 2 inches, but it looks like we're gonna get some decent drizzle today. (I'm guessing about 1/4 to 1/2 inch)
Quoting 4. sunlinepr:
Thanks J. Masters, definitelly good news forecasted for Japan...

img src="">


I always think of Japan as being similar to the East coast of the U.S. Japan is located on a similar latitude to the East Coast of the U.S. and many tropical systems make the famous turn to the north (as they do with the U.S.) right before getting there.

In a perfect world, I'd like to see more consistency between forecasting agencies. The Japan Meteorological Agency uses 10-minute sustained winds, the India Meteorological Department uses 3-minute sustained winds, the National Hurricane Center and Joint Typhoon Warning Center use 1-minute sustained winds. I'd also like to see but one forecasting agency for each basin...for example, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center writes advisories for typhoons (West Pacific) and cyclones (Indian Ocean). This makes it difficult for individual people, the media, etc. to note how strong a storm is. Some organizations were noting how Phailin was a Category 5...which it officially was not.

Perhaps the IMD needs to come around with the global understanding of the Dvorak technique as well. They were giving Phailin a T4.5/77kt when it had a clear eye of 24.5C (see CIRA) surrounded by -80C convection. That does not compute.
Social media played a small role, no doubt.

The two biggest factors in avoiding or limiting loss of life?

From Dr. Masters:

...The pressure bottomed out at 938 mb in Gopalpur as the eye passed over, and the city reported sustained winds of 56 mph, gusting to 85 mph, in the eyewall...

...The India Meteorology Department (IMD) provided excellent early warning information for Phailin, predicting on October 9 that the cyclone would strike on October 12 with at least Category 2-strength winds. Civil defense in India took the warnings seriously, and operated the largest evacuation effort in the nation's history--nearly 1 million people--one that undoubtedly saved hundreds of lives. There were far more shelters available to put the evacuees in, compared to in 1999, thanks to a major effort to build more shelters after the cyclone. The high death toll in the 1999 cyclone was blamed, in part, due to lack of shelters...
The. Epac is up two 17 name storms for th the season so march for the be low normal forcast what evere that was
29. JRRP


30. vis0
Thank you to the WxU community for bringing to the forefront the fact that there was a dangerous cyclone heading for India & Bangladesh.

After i  read ~4 days ago of TC Phailin on WxU (member's posts) the next morning i went to 28 stores on Lexington Aver between 23rd & 34th st. in
Manhattan.  There are many Indian/Banglash owned stores in that community. Made sure they knew of the TC, most did a few did not and let them know of WxU in case there home country's stations go out.

Some ask why isn't U.S. WxU on fire when weather acts up elsewhere.

My "2pents".
Human beings by nature (100,000s of yrs) are still oriented more toward their local needs, that's why we tend to be on the look out for whats around us than whats far away be the human in the Northern, Southern Hemispheres, Eastern or Western disc. If we communicate little by little specially when Natures gives us a reason why it'll bring the world closer together.
Thank You
Quoting 27. beell:
Social media played a small role, no doubt.

The two biggest factors in avoiding or limiting loss of life?

From Dr. Masters:

...The pressure bottomed out at 938 mb in Gopalpur as the eye passed over, and the city reported sustained winds of 56 mph, gusting to 85 mph, in the eyewall...

...The India Meteorology Department (IMD) provided excellent early warning information for Phailin, predicting on October 9 that the cyclone would strike on October 12 with at least Category 2-strength winds. Civil defense in India took the warnings seriously, and operated the largest evacuation effort in the nation's history--nearly 1 million people--one that undoubtedly saved hundreds of lives. There were far more shelters available to put the evacuees in, compared to in 1999, thanks to a major effort to build more shelters after the cyclone. The high death toll in the 1999 cyclone was blamed, in part, due to lack of shelters...



Cat 4 pressure with only 56 mph winds gusting to 85 mph?
Quoting 26. TropicalAnalystwx13:
In a perfect world, I'd like to see more consistency between forecasting agencies. The Japan Meteorological Agency uses 10-minute sustained winds, the India Meteorological Department uses 3-minute sustained winds, the National Hurricane Center and Joint Typhoon Warning Center use 1-minute sustained winds. I'd also like to see but one forecasting agency for each basin...for example, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center writes advisories for typhoons (West Pacific) and cyclones (Indian Ocean). This makes it difficult for individual people, the media, etc. to note how strong a storm is. Some organizations were noting how Phailin was a Category 5...which it officially was not.

Perhaps the IMD needs to come around with the understand of the Dvorak technique as well. They were giving Phailin a T4.5/77kt when it had a clear eye of 24.5C (see CIRA) surrounded by -80C convection. That does not compute.


Couple of things . the Cyclone was in the Indian ocean which is a basin of its own so why would it have the same as the W. Pac .

I think the IMD did very well in predicting the storm and getting the people evacuated . Maybe it should be the otherway round that the NHC could take a lesson from the IMD .... The death toll tells a story in itself just my opinion .

If I had been reading the blog and lived there I might have been terrified into a heart attack /nervous breakdown and not listen to the IMD .
And the epac has a full house wish means evere TD this year has be come a name storm and not one TD was lost this year with out becomeing a name storm but we are not done yet the epac could lose that full house status if a td forms and then falls a part so well see how the rest of oct and nov gos for the epac
A quick graphical update on the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season to-date:

2013

2013

2013

2013

That last graph is very telling: the 2013 Atlantic hurricane seasons has accumulated the lowest average ACE-per-storm of the satellite era (2.64). In fact, it's currently below the 1th percentile. In order to avoid finishing the season with the satellite era record, the average per-storm ACE for any remaining storms would need to be roughly as follows:

One more storm: 12.00
Two more storms: 8.00
Three more storms: 6.00
Four more storms: 5.5
Five more storms: 5.2

...and so on. Not looking good. Or bad, depending on your take...
I wonder how strong that MJO pulse will be when it get's here in the Atlantic.It helped partake in the development of Phailin and the two other typhoons in the west pacific.Wonder if the Atlantic will go out with a bang this year..
Quoting 31. Sfloridacat5:



Cat 4 pressure with only 56 mph winds gusting to 85 mph?


I don't get it either. But if anywhere close to truth, a factor in why Gopalpur has not been wiped off the face of the earth.
Quoting 35. washingtonian115:
I wonder how strong that MJO pulse will be when it get's here in the Atlantic.It helped partake in the development of Phailin and the two other typhoons in the west pacific.Wonder if the Atlantic will go out with a bang this year..


Doubt it ... The winter pattern is all ready up and running with fronts getting well into the Caribbean.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Social media is an amazing thing these days. I think that is one of the main contributors for the low death toll. The evacuations by public officials certainly helped. Looks like the lesson was learned after the '99 cyclone.
India now a days is a fast developing nation, following the steps to others that are already, first world powers like China and Brazil; their improvement is shown in many areas including of course, meteorology.
Quoting 34. Neapolitan:
A quick graphical update on the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season to-date:

2013

2013

2013

2013

That last graph is very telling: the 2013 Atlantic hurricane seasons has accumulated the lowest average ACE-per-storm of the satellite era (2.64). In fact, it's currently below the 1th percentile. In order to avoid finishing the season with the satellite era record, the average per-storm ACE for any remaining storms would need to be roughly as follows:

One more storm: 12.00
Two more storms: 8.00
Three more storms: 6.00
Four more storms: 5.5
Five more storms: 5.2

...and so on. Not looking good. Or bad, depending on your take...


Ah the CHART !
Quoting 37. VR46L:


Doubt it ... The winter pattern is all ready up and running with fronts getting well into the Caribbean.
The fall/winter pattern is setting up.But October can be a nasty month still.The fall/winter pattern was setting up to last year at this time and then Sandy came along.But knowing that this is 2013 I have my doubts.
Quoting VR46L:


Doubt it ... The winter pattern is all ready up and running with fronts getting well into the Caribbean.
kind of late in the season, but maybe it could help for a November, "surprise"....
Quoting 36. beell:


I don't get it either. But if anywhere close to truth, a factor in why Gopalpur has not been wiped off the face of the earth.

Perhaps the station failed? That doesn't make any sense to me.
Powerful Cyclone Phailin not a Mega-Disaster for India

Good, I was dreading this one.
Thanks Dr.Masters.I hope Bangladesh and Myanmar take note of this as they are also vulnerable to mega disasters caused by this cyclones.
2013 Atlantic hurricane season

has 11 name storms 2 hurricanes and 0 cat 3 and higher hurricanes and 1 TD



2013 Epac hurricane season


has 17 name storms 7 hurricanes and 0 cat 3 and higher hurricane and no TD where lots and it looks like the Epac hurricane season is still going strong with 95E wish is up two 30%


i think some one got there hurricane season forcast mixed up
Quoting 27. beell:
Social media played a small role, no doubt....
A "small role"? I dunno. Based on figures I could gather from multiple sources, India has the fastest-growing internet user base of any large nation; it has the third-larget internet population in the world (behind the US and China); social media users there are growing by 50% a year; 66 million Indians are on Facebook alone; India has the second-highest LinkedIn population in the world; and so on. Now, obiously not everyone there is connected, and not all who are connected are using the internet for urgent news of breaking events. But if I had to take a guess, I'd say social media and the internet played much more than a small role in warning people what was headed their way. After all, getting those crucial government warnings out to the numerous small villages and towns along the coast most likely wouldn't have happened so quickly without the good old intertubes. Which goes to show that, used properly, the web is a tool unlike anything the planet has ever seen; it's definitely useful for more than just keeping up-to-date with the Kardashians or watching videos of cats playing with yarn... ;-)
Quoting 46. Neapolitan:
A "small role"? I dunno. Based on figures I could gather from multiple sources, India has the fastest-growing internet user base of any large nation; it has the third-larget internet population in the world (behind the US and China); social media users there are growing by 50% a year; 66 million Indians are on Facebook alone; India has the second-highest LinkedIn population in the world; and so on. Now, obiously not everyone there is connected, and not all who are connected are using the internet for urgent news of breaking events. But if I had to take a guess, I'd say social media and the internet played much more than a small role in warning people what was headed their way. After all, getting those crucial government warnings out to the numerous small villages and towns along the coast most likely wouldn't have happened so quickly without the good old intertubes. Which goes to show that, used properly, the web is a tool unlike anything the planet has ever seen; it's definitely useful for more than just keeping up-to-date with the Kardashians or watching videos of cats playing with yarn... ;-)


Don't you dare insult our cat videos. The internet was clearly designed to be the world's largest repository of funny cat videos. You, sir, have crossed a line.
Quoting 46. Neapolitan:
A "small role"? I dunno. Based on figures I could gather from multiple sources, India has the fastest-growing internet user base of any large nation; it has the third-larget internet population in the world (behind the US and China); social media users there are growing by 50% a year; 66 million Indians are on Facebook alone; India has the second-highest LinkedIn population in the world; and so on. Now, obiously not everyone there is connected, and not all who are connected are using the internet for urgent news of breaking events. But if I had to take a guess, I'd say social media and the internet played much more than a small role in warning people what was headed their way. After all, getting those crucial government warnings out to the numerous small villages and towns along the coast most likely wouldn't have happened so quickly without the good old intertubes. Which goes to show that, used properly, the web is a tool unlike anything the planet has ever seen; it's definitely useful for more than just keeping up-to-date with the Kardashians or watching videos of cats playing with yarn... ;-)


Ok, if you insist. I concede.
:)

The internet does not govern storm strength.
ADDED: Or point of landfall. This blog stands as evidence to those obvious facts.

It may also have played a (grammar, grammar separated the verb) role in the mechanics of evacuation. But I assume a lot of it was plain old "boots-on the-ground" in getting people rounded up and transported to an adequate number of shelters put in place after 1999.
Quoting 36. beell:


I don't get it either. But if anywhere close to truth, a factor in why Gopalpur has not been wiped off the face of the earth.


Only 56 mph sustained with 85 mph gusts that's weaker than hurricane Sandy.

Yesterday I was reading about winds of 167 mph sustained....maybe I was experiencing a vivid hallucination.
Quoting 48. beell:


Ok, if you insist. I concede.
:)

The internet does not govern storm strength.

It may also have played a role in the mechanics of evacuation. But I assume a lot of it was plain old "boots-on the-ground" in getting people rounded up and transported to an adequate number of shelters put in place after 1999.


unlike here in the US .. the people over there actually followed advise and appear to have gone to shelters ..
Quoting 48. beell:


Ok, if you insist. I concede.
:)

The internet does not govern storm strength.

It may also have played a role in the mechanics of evacuation. But I assume a lot of it was plain old "boots-on the-ground" in getting people rounded up and transported to an adequate number of shelters put in place after 1999.


I think it is more that they weren't ask to leave. They were told to leave and if they didn't they were loaded in the truck and taken anyways.
Quoting 47. Naga5000:


Don't you dare insult our cat videos. The internet was clearly designed to be the world's largest repository of funny cat videos. You, sir, have crossed a line.

+10000!
The likely last chance for the Atlantic to have something developing is when the MJO arrives by late October.



GFS on long range has some hints of Caribbean activity.

Quoting 42. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Perhaps the station failed? That doesn't make any sense to me.


Maybe so.

Thanks to social media, maybe we will have the opportunity to have a look at the damage over the coming days and perform our own assessment.
Fantastic article from PBS about tagging fish to get ocean data for use in forecasting. Link

“A single PAT tag on a tarpon can provide 50,000 conductivity, temperature, and depth profiles per year,” Shay tells me in his office at the Rosenstiel School before that evening’s football game, for which he was wearing an orange Miami Hurricanes polo shirt and a pair of lime green shorts. “If you tag 20 fish a year, you’d get a million CTD profiles. Integrating that many data points with our satellite framework could significantly improve the way we forecast hurricane intensity.”
Quoting 52. JNTenne:

+10000!


I love internet cats :)


98L doesn't look to be much of a Cat in the making !

Not quite sure if I can post this here, but over here in the Netherlands, we had trouble today because of a low pressure zone called ''Xenon'' that moved just past the coast today. The Western and South-Western parts of the country suffered the most because of the 80 milimetres rain that fell there in the past 24 hours (80 mm is the amount that falls during October usually), and because of the hard winds. Luckily, I live in the South-Eastern part of the country, where it was a little breezy and nearly dry the entire day hehe!

Besides that, I'm really glad India got out so well after that amazingly strong cyclone.. Great news :)

Here some pics of the consequences from the flooding:






Link

Stay safe, please ignore my bad English, and have a great day! :)
cannot believe they still have 98 at 10%.........TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE LOW MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
59. SLU
Quoting 53. Tropicsweatherpr:
The likely last chance for the Atlantic to have something developing is when the MJO arrives by late October.



GFS on long range has some hints of Caribbean activity.



Should I start boarding up my windows? :)
18z Best Track for 98L.

AL, 98, 2013101318, , BEST, 0, 130N, 485W, 30, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S
Quoting 57. Gino99:
Not quite sure if I can post this here, but over here in the Netherlands, we had trouble today because of a low pressure zone called ''Xenon'' that moved just past the coast today. The Western and South-Western parts of the country suffered the most because of the 80 milimetres rain that fell there in the past 24 hours (80 mm is the amount that falls during October usually), and because of the hard winds. Luckily, I live in the South-Eastern part of the country, where it was a little breezy and nearly dry the entire day hehe.

Besides that, I'm really glad India got out so well after that amazingly strong cyclone.. Great news :)

Here some pics of the consequences from the flooding:






Link

Stay safe, please ignore my bad English, and have a great day! :)


Thank you for the post Gino! I enjoy hearing about weather around the globe (and beyond) and you grammar was actually better than a few who have no ecxuse!
Thanks again!
Rita might be getting some of this if not already..
Quoting 61. JNTenne:


Thank you for the post Gino! I enjoy hearing about weather around the globe (and beyond) and you grammar was actually better than a few who have no ecxuse!
Thanks again!

No problem buddy! The Netherlands doesn't really have a spectacular climate, but whenever there is something going on, I'll try to share it over here. Thanks for your comment!
Despite seemingly often ill-informed invective and ire, often totally insulting, displayed on this site by some - I for one will "tip my cap" to the Indian Government - local & state, as well as to the Indian Red Cross and any other actively involved NGOs and, extend kudos to their massive efforts to avert what could have been a tragedy of massive proportions.

Mitigation, Preparedeness and Recovery are not precise sciences - they never will be - but it is patently obvious that "Lessons Learned" from previous disasters have apparently been, to a greater or lesser extent, put into practice in India. One need only coldly analyse the sheer population numbers involved to gain an insight into the staggering proportions of Indian Govt and NGO efforts.

Sadly, I have no doubt that the death toll will rise as first responders reach cut-off areas, as the rainfalls in the NE Foothills and Mountains cause flooding, mudslides and later on potentially huge river rises and flooding in places like Bangladesh and, perhaps (although I sincerely hope not)water borne diseases.

I attach below an extract from the British Red Cross Web Site:

Cyclone Phailin made landfall on India's eastern coast on 12 October 2013, and was the second most powerful cyclone to strike the country in recorded history. Early reports suggest about 8million people have been affected, and more than 200,000 homes damaged.

Heavy rainfall and winds of up to 140mph caused huge damage and put many lives at risk. Between 500,000 and one million people in Odisha and Andhra Prahesh State were helped to leave their homes. Relief camps have been set up in cyclone shelters, schools and public buildings.

The cyclone has destroyed homes and livelihoods in a part of India particularly vulnerable to natural disasters, and could cause floods and landslides. The area's communication and travel networks have been badly damaged.

The Indian Red Cross Society, which has already mobilised volunteers and opened up to 75 evacuation centres, will continue to support people affected by the disaster.

The organisation is handing out tarpaulins to make simple emergency shelters and family packs of relief items, including buckets, kitchen utensils and blankets. It has also set up a water treatment unit to provide clean water to displaced families.

The Indian Red Cross Society is assessing what longer term work will be needed to give people shelter and help them rebuild their lives.

Pete Garratt, British Red Cross disaster response manager, said: "indications point to sterling work by Indian authorities in saving lives. However, we are aware that Cyclone Phailin has left a massive trail of destruction, the impact of which will prove devastating to people livelihoods and homes."

"We therefore appeal to the public to support with donations and aid the Indian people in recovering from this disaster."

TXPZ23 KNES 131820
TCSENP

A. 15E (OCTAVE)

B. 13/1800Z

C. 19.0N

D. 112.2W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T3.5/3.5/D2.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS 9/10 FOR A DT=3.5. MET IS 2.5 BASED ON
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AND PT IS 3.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MCCARTHY
If shear is still high by the time the MJO makes it's way around here then this season is officially closed for business.Come back in err may 2014

Quoting 62. LargoFl:
Rita might be getting some of this if not already..


I bet TXJAC is dancing in it !
Quoting 61. JNTenne:


Thank you for the post Gino! I enjoy hearing about weather around the globe (and beyond) and you grammar was actually better than a few who have no ecxuse!
Thanks again!


Too funny but you knew that would happen.

Quoting 67. VR46L:


I bet TXJAC is dancing in it !


You are totally right! Been dreaming of a day like this for some time now. Nice and drizzly.
Nari

Quoting 68. PedleyCA:


Too funny but you knew that would happen.



So glad you over look my terrible Grammar !
:)
Quoting 69. txjac:


You are totally right! Been dreaming of a day like this for some time now. Nice and drizzly.


I know you too well !:p
Quoting 71. VR46L:


So glad you over look my terrible Grammar !
:)


Hey, Grammar and spelling in the same post and it was about Grammar. I couldn't resist it. There is so much here I have to resist the urge and look for
the best ones to pick on.
74. JRRP
India seems to have weathered Phailin amazingly well. Especially given the political mayhem in Andhra Pradesh state.
Best TV news reports that I am seeing today on Phailin are actually on the Al Jazeerah America which I get on my Dish Channels down here on the islands.
Quoting 74. JRRP:
The GFS has been showing lower pressure over the north-east and mid-atlantic.That is probably due to the frontal low pressure systems and what now.Should keep us in a rainy pattern.
Quoting 73. PedleyCA:


Hey, Grammar and spelling in the same post and it was about Grammar. I couldn't resist it. There is so much here I have to resist the urge and look for
the best ones to pick on.


I am sure you do !If I knew were to place a comma or spell, I would do the same !
Quoting 78. VR46L:


I am sure you do !If I knew were to place a comma or spell, I would do the same !


Commas? I just wing it. Been a long time since I was in school.
Quoting 67. VR46L:


I bet TXJAC is dancing in it !
yeah they have needed rain for so long now...
Quoting 61. JNTenne:


Thank you for the post Gino! I enjoy hearing about weather around the globe (and beyond) and you grammar was actually better than a few who have no ecxuse!
Thanks again!
Wah r u talk'in bout my enrish perfact!.
Quoting JRRP:
Checking visible, amazingly 98L is getting better organize !!!
Quoting VR46L:


I am sure you do !If I knew were to place a comma many of spell, I would do the same !
For many of us English isn't our first language, not even 2nd, in my case is my third...so excuse the spelling, please...
Quoting 84. HuracanTaino:
For many of us English isn't our first language, not even 2nd, in my case is my third...so excuse the spelling, please...


I like what you just did :) LOL
I see a discussion about commas. Alas, Schoolhouse Rock never made a song about punctuation.
Not sure if someone already posted this, but here was Phailin two days ago near peak.

When confronted by a grammar nazi don't take the bait. Instead go here. Imagine that is the grammar nazi's face. Move cursor back and forth horizontally across face until you feel better.

Quoting 91. BaltimoreBrian:
When confronted by a grammar nazi don't take the bait. Instead go here. Imagine that is the grammar nazi's face. Move cursor back and forth horizontally across face until you feel better.



-_- Better not post that in Max's blog.
-_- mods..
The GFS is consistently depicting a serious cold outbreak for much of the country (barring locations west of the Rocky Mountains). While I do believe the Central USA will get cold, it doesn't make much sense for the East to get as cold as the GFS is forecasting. The negative PDO should prevent this. The ECMWF seems more accurate in showing a Central USA chill with an average Southeast and East.


Quoting 92. Astrometeor:


-_- Better not post that in Max's blog.


The first link, the second link or the image? ;)
Quoting 96. BaltimoreBrian:


The first link, the second link or the image? ;)


D. All of the above.

Quoting 95. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The GFS is consistently depicting a serious cold outbreak for much of the country (barring locations west of the Rocky Mountains). While I do believe the Central USA will get cold, it doesn't make much sense for the East to get as cold as the GFS is forecasting. The negative PDO should prevent this. The ECMWF seems more accurate in showing a Central USA chill with an average Southeast and East.




If it was late November or December I would be rooting for a snowstorm right now, but alas not quite there yet, but could give us a freeze if the GFS's solution comes true.
LMAO.I'm a female :).The rumor is true!.Brain cells are dead up there!.
99. JRRP
Quoting washingtonian115:
The GFS has been showing lower pressure over the north-east and mid-atlantic.That is probably due to the frontal low pressure systems and what now.Should keep us in a rainy pattern.

yeah but nothing in the tropics
Quoting 95. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The GFS is consistently depicting a serious cold outbreak for much of the country (barring locations west of the Rocky Mountains). While I do believe the Central USA will get cold, it doesn't make much sense for the East to get as cold as the GFS is forecasting. The negative PDO should prevent this. The ECMWF seems more accurate in showing a Central USA chill with an average Southeast and East.


I hope the GFS is right.I want some chilly weather.So I can sit by the fire place with a nice hot bowl of soup.
Quoting coolbreezejean:
everyone stop talking about 98l... it sucks and has always sucked and wont amount to anything... so stop this every few hours crap ( it looks better now ) then a few hours later its falling apart then a few hours later its getting better now ) just stop it the season is over and the BUZZARD WRATH told everyone everyday back in june and july that wind shear and dust would bust the season and nothing will change that.... why didnt anyone listen to the BUZZARDWRATH BACK IN JUNE AND JULY WHEN HE SAID THE SEASON WOULD BE A SHEAR AND DUST BUST EVERYDAY.... HE SAID IT EVERYDAY AND PROVED ALL THE EXPERTS WRONG.
ha,ha,agree, but that doesn't change the fact that 98L IS getting better organize, even if it is for a couple of hours. ;)
Here comes the next EPAC storm in the new train.

Wow hater-aid is in full effect
Quoting 57. Gino99:
Not quite sure if I can post this here, but over here in the Netherlands, we had trouble today because of a low pressure zone called ''Xenon'' that moved just past the coast today. The Western and South-Western parts of the country suffered the most because of the 80 milimetres rain that fell there in the past 24 hours (80 mm is the amount that falls during October usually), and because of the hard winds. Luckily, I live in the South-Eastern part of the country, where it was a little breezy and nearly dry the entire day hehe!

Besides that, I'm really glad India got out so well after that amazingly strong cyclone.. Great news :)

Here some pics of the consequences from the flooding:






Link

Stay safe, please ignore my bad English, and have a great day! :)

Your english wasn't bad :p and I hope nobody was hurt in the flooding in the Netherlands. On Thursday and Friday I got 7.3 inches or 185.42 millimeters of rain and there was quite a bit of flooding here as well.
Quoting 101. HuracanTaino:
ha,ha,agree, but that doesn't change the fact that 98L IS getting better organize, even if it is for a couple of hours. ;)
It's the same person.Their just trying to critique themselves.A really sad world some live in :)
Waiting for my next wave of storms to kick up from the WSW this evening. The first wave moved through overnight and gave me about 4.5 inches of rain in about 3 hours, but because the ground is still very dry there were no flooding issues. It was glorious.



Mid-Level moisture streaming off Octave certainly isn't hurting either. This is the second time this fall that an EPac storm has really helped the rain cause in Texas (with the first being Hurricane Manuel).

Quoting 109. 1900hurricane:
Mid-Level moisture streaming off Octave certainly isn't hurting either. This is the second time this fall that an EPac storm has really helped the rain cause in Texas (with the first being Hurricane Manuel).

It seems the Texas death ridge has broken down enough this year to allow ya'll to get much needed rain.You all really needed it as the lakes and environment were really hurting.
Wow, coolbreezejean needs to coolherjets.
Quoting 114. Stormlover16:
Wow, coolbreezejean needs to coolherjets.


It's a troll, ban evader if anyone remembers buzzard...
Just flag and ignore, hopefully a mod is on to take care of it.
Astro I didn't dare post it here but check out the most recent comment in my blog.
Interesting.
Again, Dr Masters, thanks very much for your blogs on cyclone Phailin. Your blogs were very informative, detailed and timely, particularly to an expat Indian like myself.
Quoting 117. CybrTeddy:
Interesting.

Octave trying to be an over-achiever?
Quoting 91. BaltimoreBrian:
When confronted by a grammar nazi don't take the bait. Instead go here. Imagine that is the grammar nazi's face. Move cursor back and forth horizontally across face until you feel better.



Hey a new Icon.................lol
Quoting 117. CybrTeddy:
Interesting.

Best track says 55kt but I wouldn't be surprised if they went 60kt based on the eye on microwave/conventional satellite and satellite intensity estimates of T3.5/55kt from SAB and T4.5/65kt from TAFB.
i have a prediction that I know will come true! im going to put coolbreezejean on my iggy list...... ahhh , see, I was right! my prediction came true!
Quoting 113. washingtonian115:
It seems the Texas death ridge has broken down enough this year to allow ya'll to get much needed rain.You all really needed it as the lakes and environment were really hurting.

It came back pretty strong during the heat of summer, but a semi-permanent continental mid-level ridge is rarely a player with our fall weather. Whenever we are hurting for rain during the transition to the cooler months, it is typically due to elevated mixed layer advected off of the Mexican Plateau to our SW. These EPac storms have really helped to eliminate any any dry layer present in what probably would have been moderately wet storm systems to begin with. Very happy with the EPac this year.
Sorry folks .. Lets get back to the weather now ..

Good to see Texas getting rain in some of the areas that badly need it ..
Quoting 117. CybrTeddy:
Interesting.
Kiko,Manuel and now Octave part 3.
Quoting 129. whitewabit:
That should look different when the next map comes out.Almost 6 inches at my house.


looks like the SW Caribbean is firing up convection now..
Quoting 130. washingtonian115:
That should look different when the next map comes out.Almost 6 inches at my house.


We are in the severe category and don't expect a change either way ..
I doubt the National Hurricane Center will be checking this post-season but nonetheless I found this convective blob south of Newfoundland on October 11 pretty interesting.

Next year, can we have a "Pacific Only" blog? There does not seem to be any movement towards paving the Sahara as many here have requested. We waste too much time analyzing the Atlantic Basin...GFSes at 300 hours that never, ever materialize. One forecaster, maybe Stewart, is enough to cover the AB, lets channel our resources properly.
Quoting 133. Hurricane1216:
I doubt the National Hurricane Center will be checking this post-season but nonetheless I found this convective blob south of Newfoundland on October 11 pretty interesting.

Im sure they will give it a name, maybe even call it a major. Their jobs are clearly at stake.
Ghost of Karen energizing back up off S.C. coast?
Quoting 136. eyewallblues:
Im sure they will give it a name, maybe even call it a major. Their jobs are clearly at stake.


"Clearly"
has anyone seen anything in any of the models regarding development in the caribbean in the next few days?
Quoting 129. whitewabit:

I bet that the next update, all yellow in PA/MD/VA will be gone.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013

...OCTAVE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IT PASSES WELL TO THE
WEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 112.7W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM WNW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013

DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...OUTER BAND CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED WHILE
INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS MADE SOMEWHAT OF A COMEBACK. THE INNER
CORE CONVECTION NOW CONSISTS OF A SMALL RING OF CONVECTION ABOUT
100 NMI IN DIAMETER WITH A 25 NMI DIAMETER EYE FEATURE EMBEDDED
NEARLY IN THE CENTER OF THE CONVECTIVE RING. HOWEVER...SEVERAL
PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL EYE
FEATURE IS TILTED MORE THAN 20 NMI TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE JUMPED SHARPLY TO
T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND T3.5/55 KT FROM SAB SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BUT A 1639Z ASCAT-B OVERPASS ONLY REVEALED 35-40 KT
WINDS WITHIN 20 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER...AND A 1725Z ASCAT-A
OVERPASS ONLY INDICATED 45 KT IN THE EASTERN EYEWALL. THIS SUGGESTS
THAT OCTAVE MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE SATELLITE SIGNATURES
INDICATE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY BLENDS THESE ESTIMATES AND IS
GENEROUSLY SET TO 55 KT. UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES INDICATE THAT
OCTAVE IS EXPERIENCING 15-20 KT OF SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR THAT
IS UNDERCUTTING THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE 6 KT OF 850-200 MB SHEAR...
WHICH EXPLAINS THE NORTHWARD TILT OF THE EYE FEATURE. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO...BUT THE TILTED EYE FEATURE...ALONG WITH THE RATHER COMPACT
SIZE OF THE CYCLONE...MEANS THE OCTAVE SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN ONCE
IT MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 18-24 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...STEADILY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD DECOUPLE THE
LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS...RESULTING IN OCTAVE BECOMING A
REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/11 KT. OCTAVE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY SLOW
DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD BY MONDAY AND TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
AND NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...A VERTICALLY SHALLOW AND
WEAK OCTAVE COULD BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA AND COMPLETELY DECOUPLES.
THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
PLUME...HOWEVER...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND SPREAD
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS BAJA AND NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE TCVE AND FSSE
MODELS.

DESPITE THE RECENT STRENGTHENING OF OCTAVE...THE CURRENT TRACK
AND INTENSITY FORECASTS...PLUS AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...DOES
NOT WARRANT ANY TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 19.2N 112.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 20.6N 113.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 22.3N 113.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 23.7N 113.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 24.6N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 25.1N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/1800Z 26.0N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Link
My winter blog is always open.
Quoting 140. Doppler22:

I bet that the next update, all yellow in PA/MD/VA will be gone.



Think it will too .. believe that they had rain for several days .. Wash said she had over 6 inches where she lives ..
Quoting 144. whitewabit:


Think it will too .. believe that they had rain for several days .. Wash said she had over 6 inches where she lives ..


Yup, flooding in the region, Harrisburg, PA set at least one daily rainfall record, and a 24-hr record of at least 9 inches.
The forecasters up there completely missed the location for the heavy rainfall, the forecast was 100-150 miles east of where the rain fell.
Quoting 145. Astrometeor:


Yup, flooding in the region, Harrisburg, PA set at least one daily rainfall record, and a 24-hr record of at least 9 inches.
The forecasters up there completely missed the location for the heavy rainfall, the forecast was 100-150 miles east of where the rain fell.


We had almost 4" over Friday and the weekend.
147. VR46L
Quoting 139. MiamiHeat305:
has anyone seen anything in any of the models regarding development in the caribbean in the next few days?


Well the CMC is at it again

Jeepers, creepers, where'd you get those peepers

Atlantic basin suffering the measles.

150. JeffM
Quoting 24. SubtropicalHi:


Austin, Austin, Austin....(As in Marsha, Marsha, Marsha)

I sat at my house in San Antonio and watched as storms formed and moved directly to Austin. Zip rainfall here. Uvalde got 2 inches, but it looks like we're gonna get some decent drizzle today. (I'm guessing about 1/4 to 1/2 inch)


I'm in the Stone Oak/Timberwood Park area and we got HAMMERED with rain last night. My rain gauge had 3" this morning.

Looks like some of us on the north/north east side got a good soaking. Been raining all day and looks like it will be for awhile.
Quoting 148. BaltimoreBrian:
Jeepers, creepers, where'd you get those peepers



If it wasn't at 384 hours it would be time to get excited.
Here's the first round of pictures from my adventure on Blue Ridge Parkway. These are the most colorful ones that I captured on my iPhone :)

Quoting 151. Sfloridacat5:


If it wasn't at 384 hours it would be time to get excited.


its been hinting though at that area for the entire month now not in every run but it sure means something i suppose. maybe lets get a little excited otherwise im gonna suffer lackofstorms depression lol

last year was better in sfl by the way we got a tropical storm pass us nearby it was isaac was fun to watch the media go crazy about it
154. VR46L
Quoting 153. MiamiHeat305:


its been hinting though at that area for the entire month now not in every run but it sure means something i suppose. maybe lets get a little excited otherwise im gonna suffer lackofstorms depression lol


I love the hints they give ...and then nothing happens story of 2013 :)
Quoting 154. VR46L:


I love the hints they give ...and then nothing happens story of 2013 :)
makes me wonder if in 2014 the same trend will continue or not
hey if invest 98 remains weak can it maybe go farther west and have a chance of strengthening later?
Quoting 155. MiamiHeat305:
makes me wonder if in 2014 the same trend will continue or not


Probably not, no two years are the same. Although, we did have Irene and Sandy in back-to-back years.

Edit: But not in the same way, Irene was a classic storm coming up the coast, Sandy was...well...Sandy.
by the way i'm lowering my personal prediction of a major hurricane this year to 0 the most we can see and still looking hard at this point is a cat 1 or 2..
159. VR46L
Quoting 155. MiamiHeat305:
makes me wonder if in 2014 the same trend will continue or not


Patterns of Active seasons followed by ones of inactivity ..
2004,2005 were busy followed by.2006,2007,2008 and 2009 were relatively quiet and 2010 ,2011 and 2012 were busy and 2013 quiet ....

Who really knows ?
Quoting 159. VR46L:


Patterns of Active seasons followed by ones of inactivity ..
2004,2005 were busy followed by.2006,2007,2008 and 2009 were relatively quiet and 2010 ,2011 and 2012 were busy and 2013 quiet ....

Who really knows ?


Your not hinting that we might have 3-4 years like 2013, That would cause a Riot here....... lol
161. VR46L
Quoting 160. PedleyCA:


Your not hinting that we might have 3-4 years like 2013, That would cause a Riot here....... lol


True ... I guess that comment would be considered trolling by some ...but hey I get a summer when the tropics are quiet :)
w.carib?
Quoting 162. islander101010:
w.carib?


shhh dont talk about it so it can develop
164. txjac
Quoting 100. washingtonian115:
I hope the GFS is right.I want some chilly weather.So I can sit by the fire place with a nice hot bowl of soup.


Wow, I was thinking the same thing. I ran out and bought what I needed to make lentil soup (enough to take to the gang at the office tommorrow) and homemade bread.

It will all be ready in a couple of hours washi ...you're more than welcome to come down and have some with me tonight.

I love cutting veggies when it rains ...it's soothing
How many deaths and damage do you think there would be if a Phailin type storm hit the U.S.?
Quoting 161. VR46L:


True ... I guess that comment would be considered trolling by some ...but hey I get a summer when the tropics are quiet :)


Didn't mean it like that but the way you said it makes sense. Never know, might be another slow period starting up. I am no expert (18/6/3) lol......
Quoting 71. VR46L:


So glad you over look my terrible Grammar !
:)
I just figured that it was because your first language was Gaelic, Liz. (That would make a good excuse - don't you think.)

My ex-wife, the Ph.D., is far worse than me at spelling and grammar, and I had to struggle just to get a B.S. at the same university - U.C. Berkeley.
168. VR46L
Quoting 166. PedleyCA:


Didn't mean it like that but the way you said it makes sense. Never know, might be another slow period starting up. I am no expert (18/6/3) lol......


I meant my comment about inactivity could be seen as trolling here :)
169. txjac
Quoting 152. Bluestorm5:
Here's the first round of pictures from my adventure on Blue Ridge Parkway. These are the most colorful ones that I captured on my iPhone :)



Gorgeous, thanks for sharing
Quoting 158. MiamiHeat305:
by the way i'm lowering my personal prediction of a major hurricane this year to 0 the most we can see and still looking hard at this point is a cat 1 or 2..



we are likey not even going too see that take a look around you what are you seeing that you think will have a cat 1 or 2 hiting the USA heck we cant even get pass 85 mph winds hurricane season is really starting too wide on down i dont think we will see any more name storms this season

the E PAC have seen 17 name storms 7 hurricanes and 0 cant 3 or higher hurricanes

some one made a big goof up in the hurricane forcast for the E pac so the most of the storms this year have been in the E PAC and i say this the E PAC is acting like EL Nino with them 17 name storm i think that 17 name storms was meant for us oops wrong
172. VR46L
Quoting 167. Xulonn:
I just figured that it was because your first language was Gaelic, Liz. (That would make a good excuse - don't you think.)

My ex-wife, the Ph.D., is far worse than me at spelling and grammar, and I had to struggle just to get a B.S. at the same university - U.C. Berkeley.


Nope My first tongue is English , then Gaelic and then a bit of French and Spanish
Is there a low forming within the cluster of thunderstorms in the SW Caribbean? That area has the highest chance for any storm to form this season.
Quoting 171. BaltimoreBrian:
Schottenfreude


So glad that is not my first language.
True or false. There has been a hurricane season in which there was more ACE in November than the rest of the season combined. (since satellite observation began)
Quoting 165. nwobilderburg:
How many deaths and damage do you think there would be if a Phailin type storm hit the U.S.?

It depends. On a lot. Which part of the United States? What month? How much advanced warning did the impacted residents get?
Quoting 173. GrandCaymanMed:
Is there a low forming within the cluster of thunderstorms in the SW Caribbean? That area has the highest chance for any storm to form this season.


I was thinking the same thing, and I think it is a possibility
Quoting 175. BaltimoreBrian:
True or false. There has been a hurricane season in which there was more ACE in November than the rest of the season combined. (since satellite observation began)

False.
180. VR46L
Quoting 173. GrandCaymanMed:
Is there a low forming within the cluster of thunderstorms in the SW Caribbean? That area has the highest chance for any storm to form this season.


As I don't know much ... I would not be sure ... But it looks like it's dissipating ..



i most be the ghost of karen
Quoting 176. TropicalAnalystwx13:

It depends. On a lot. Which part of the United States? What month? How much advanced warning did the impacted residents get?


Georgia, September, same as Phailin.

Georgia hurricanes are so rare we need to talk about them once at least.
Quoting 178. TropicalAnalystwx13:

False.


True. In 1994 the total ACE was 32.

Hurricane Florence had an ACE of 10.9775
Hurricane Gordon had an ACE of 8.15

Total of 19.1275

Even if the season total was 32.5, with HURDAT rounding numbers, that means there was a maximum of 13.3725 before November 1st and 19.1275 after November 1st.
98L....

Quoting 183. BaltimoreBrian:


True. In 1994 the total ACE was 32.

Hurricane Florence had an ACE of 10.9775
Hurricane Gordon had an ACE of 8.15

Total of 19.1275

Even if the season total was 32.5, with HURDAT rounding numbers, that means there was a maximum of 13.3725 before November 1st and 19.1275 after November 1st.


I knew it was true, just didn't know the season.
Quoting 183. BaltimoreBrian:


True. In 1994 the total ACE was 32.

Hurricane Florence had an ACE of 10.9775
Hurricane Gordon had an ACE of 8.15

Total of 19.1275

Even if the season total was 32.5, with HURDAT rounding numbers, that means there was a maximum of 13.3725 before November 1st and 19.1275 after November 1st.

You learn something new everyday. :)

Quoting 182. yqt1001:


Georgia, September, same as Phailin.

Georgia hurricanes are so rare we need to talk about them once at least.

Difficult scenario. Surely the complacency factor would come into play.
Quoting 186. TropicalAnalystwx13:

You learn something new everyday. :)


Difficult scenario. Surely the complacency factor would come into play.



It's possible I made a mistake adding up their ACE points. But November definitely had more than half the ACE that year.
Quoting 182. yqt1001:


Georgia, September, same as Phailin.

Georgia hurricanes are so rare we need to talk about them once at least.


that would be bad if it hit savannah, but otherwise the coast is not very dense.... someone needs to come up with a simulation were you could create various hurricanes and plot potential damage and evacuations..
Quoting 159. VR46L:


Patterns of Active seasons followed by ones of inactivity ..
2004,2005 were busy followed by.2006,2007,2008 and 2009 were relatively quiet and 2010 ,2011 and 2012 were busy and 2013 quiet ....

Who really knows ?
Uhh 2008 was anything but quite..
Quoting 164. txjac:


Wow, I was thinking the same thing. I ran out and bought what I needed to make lentil soup (enough to take to the gang at the office tommorrow) and homemade bread.

It will all be ready in a couple of hours washi ...you're more than welcome to come down and have some with me tonight.

I love cutting veggies when it rains ...it's soothing
I just made lamb stew.Mind if I bring it down to share :).
Quoting 189. washingtonian115:
Uhh 2008 was anything but quite..
I just made lamb stew.Mind if I bring it down to share :).


Lamb stew? That could go mysteriously missing.

On-topic:
191. VR46L
Quoting 189. washingtonian115:
Uhh 2008 was anything but quite..
I just made lamb stew.Mind if I bring it down to share :).


Oops yeah you are right but 2006 and 2009 were
Lamb stew for ewe is
wonderful I could eat it
all day it's yummy!
Creeping in from the south.
Quoting 191. VR46L:


Oops yeah you are right but 2006 and 2009 were
2009 was the year of the shear and also the year to some of the ugliest tropical cyclones in Atlantic basin history.

Astrometeor yes with carrots,potatoes and celery.
Quoting 192. BaltimoreBrian:
Lamb stew for ewe is
wonderful I could eat it
all day it's yummy!


The WUnderground haiku master is back, y'all, watch out!
Good Evening. Gonna take advantage of this Sunday evening lull, before the usual crew of hypers check in tomorrow morning, to declare that 98L is going no-where.

The Central Atlantic is closed for business due to sheer. (Link)

Also nice to see that India apparently fared much better than expected with Phailin.
But not for long. I
will go eat dinner and then
watch The Walking Dead
Flash flood warnings becoming to come up.

Quoting 161. VR46L:


True ... I guess that comment would be considered trolling by some ...but hey I get a summer when the tropics are quiet :)
2008 wasn't quite, Ike, Gustav,Dolly all hit the US as Cat 2 Hurricanes
Quoting 199. Methurricanes:
2008 wasn't quite, Ike, Gustav,Dolly all hit the US as Cat 2 Hurricanes

And Omar passed through the northeastern Leeward Islands as a Category 4. Paloma stuck Cuba as a Category 2 after becoming the second third-strongest November hurricane on record.
TropicalAnalystwx13 trHUrrIXC5MMX is looking for you.
Quoting 201. washingtonian115:
TropicalAnalystwx13 trHUrrIXC5MMX is looking for you.


Clarification: He would like a new blog from you Cody, guess he's feeling lonely since he removed some of my comments the other day...
.
Quoting 200. TropicalAnalystwx13:

And Omar passed through the northeastern Leeward Islands as a Category 4. Paloma stuck Cuba as a Category 2 after becoming the second strongest November hurricane on record.
Paloma was no Pal o mine!
Quoting 200. TropicalAnalystwx13:

And Omar passed through the northeastern Leeward Islands as a Category 4. Paloma stuck Cuba as a Category 2 after becoming the second strongest November hurricane on record.
Plus td 16 flooded all of the north coast of my country even if it was the weakest cyclone of the season :P.
206. txjac
Quoting 189. washingtonian115:
Uhh 2008 was anything but quite..
I just made lamb stew.Mind if I bring it down to share :).


Come on with it ...have some great wine we could share.

Stopped drizzling here ...ready for more
Oops sorry.Paloma such a beautiful name sadly it has three meanings in my country 1 that is a name another that is an animal and another that I can`t write in here.XD
well if we do get any development it will be close to home or in the caribbean for the remainder of the season. eastern atlantic is closed for business..
Quoting 206. txjac:


Come on with it ...have some great wine we could share.

Stopped drizzling here ...ready for more
I have my margarita shaker :).It is approximately going to take me at least 21 hours to get down to Texas by car.The lamb might be rotted by then.
211. txjac
Quoting 210. washingtonian115:
I have my margarita shaker :).It is approximately going to take me at least 21 hours to get down to Texas by car.The lamb might be rotted by then.


Hey, we still got the wine and ritas! lol

I drive up to Ohio a couple of times a year. Will need to make it to DC some time.

Looks like we will have rain on and of for the next several days.
Maybe I'll make a blog about the winter later on. It sure beats West Hemisphere tropics..
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #42
DEEP DEPRESSION, FORMER PHAILIN (BOB04-2013)
23:30 PM IST October 13 2013
======================================

PHAILIN Remained As A Deep Depression Over North Chhattisgarh And Adjoining Jharkhand

At 18:00 PM UTC, Deep Depression, Former Phailin over north Chhattisgarh and adjoining areas of Odisha & Jharkhand and moved northwards at about 8 knots during past 6 hours and now lays center near 23.5N 83.8E, about 70 km northeast of Ambikapur & 60 km southeast of Daltonganj.

The system would move north northeastwards during next 6-12 hours and weaken gradually into a depression


hmmmmm
Link

Link

Paloma was the 3 rd most powerful November hurricane as the November 1932 Hurricane was upgraded last year to a 175mph Cat5
Quoting 200. TropicalAnalystwx13:

And Omar passed through the northeastern Leeward Islands as a Category 4. Paloma stuck Cuba as a Category 2 after becoming the second strongest November hurricane on record.



if Paloma had a little more time it would have be come a cat 5
OK got to go.
May thunder impinge upon
your dreams. Rest well all.
Quoting 214. Hurricane614:


hmmmmm


vorticity map for the caribbean anyone?
Quoting 204. eyewallblues:
Paloma was no Pal o mine!


well she was a Pal o my Ma


:p
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
250 PM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF FORMATION OF THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA TO THE HIGH CATEGORY.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM OCTAVE...LOCATED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...ANY FURTHER INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION
WOULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WHILE IT
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD.

&&

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTPZ35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP5.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTPZ25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP5.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN
221. JRRP
Quoting MiamiHeat305:


vorticity map for the caribbean anyone?

nothing there
Quoting 221. JRRP:

nothing there


thanks for posting yeah seems as if these thunderstorms there are nothing significant and will just fade soon
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE LOW MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS DISTURBANCE
CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
Quoting 222. MiamiHeat305:


thanks for posting yeah seems as if these thunderstorms there are nothing significant and will just fade soon


they could but this is the time year that the Western/SW Caribbean are hot spots for formation of TS/Hurricanes.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1245 PM HST SUN OCT 13 2013

HIZ005-008-010-011-140145-
CENTRAL OAHU-OAHU KOOLAU-OAHU SOUTH SHORE-WAIANAE MOUNTAINS-
1245 PM HST SUN OCT 13 2013

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FUNNEL
CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT 345 PM HST.

IF FUNNEL CLOUDS EXTEND TO THE GROUND...THEY CAN PRODUCE DANGEROUS
WINDS. REMAIN ALERT FOR CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND STAY TUNED TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA SOURCES FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT UNLESS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$
LAU
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM OCTAVE...LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
ABOUT 825 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT...ANY FURTHER INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD LEAD TO
THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD.
Good evening as I'm shortly hopping in from Germany. I don't have much time as I'm preparing for some days of vacation nearby in the countryside. I'm glad to learn that the impacts of Phailin weren't as devastating as they could have been - thanks to the efforts of authorities in India. Here is a report on the damage in coastal areas:



NDTV, published Oct 13, 2013
Before Cyclone Phailin struck the Odisha, villagers in the coastal district of Ganjam left all their belongings and rushed to safer places. As they returned a day later, these villagers saw their houses all damaged and roads inundated. The gush of water and ferocity of the winds took away everything they possessed. Rebuilding their lives has now become a challenge for these people. As NDTV wades through water and broken roads to reach Ganjam, these villagers say they are happy that they and their dear ones are alive. They also thank the government for warning them in advance.

And BTW, here is the infrared loop of our European cyclonic turning, drifting in the last days from the Mediterranean to the Northern Sea/UK where it is right now. Nice to look at it:



Saved image:
Venice tests €5 billion 'Moses' flood barriers
The Local, Italy, published: 13 Oct 2013 11:06 GMT+02:00

Flood-prone Venice on Saturday carried out the first test of its 5.4 billion euro ($7.3 billion) barrier system known as "Moses", designed to protect the Renaissance city from rising sea levels. ...

The city's vulnerability to rising water levels has worsened dramatically over the years. During the 20th century, Venice sank by 23 centimetres.

The 78 box-shaped barriers will be inserted into immense tanks on the sea floor. When high waters threaten the city, pressurised air will be pumped into the barriers, raising them up on hinges to block the tidal flow.

Once the danger has passed, the air will be expelled and the barriers will fill with water and sink back to the sea floor.

Construction began in 2003, and the system that was initially scheduled to go into operation in 2014 is not expected to be up and running until 2017.

The project has also raised concerns over graft. Under a major investigation into alleged corruption in contracts to build Moses, 14 people were placed under house arrest in July. ...


Whole article see link above.
229. beell
Quoting 180. VR46L:


As I don't know much ... I would not be sure ... But it looks like it's dissipating ..





Kind of interesting how 98L has been riding the boundary of strong northeast flow comprised of a low instability airmass and the tropical airmass to the south.

Almost frontal in nature and baroclinic to a certain extent. An elongated surface trough drifting west across the ATL-more or less well-removed from the ITCZ.
i find this interesting, even tho its a way out. Reminds me of last year.

Wipha, heading for Japan.


Cyclone duet in the WPAC (Nari and Wipha). With that a good night!
EP, 15, 2013101400, , BEST, 0, 199N, 1135W, 55, 995, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 20, 0, 0, 1007, 130, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, OCTAVE, D,
Interesting radar image over Europe.

Done :/
Very last post: Report from AlJazeera about the advanced technology of India forecasting cyclones since the catastrophy of 1999:

Multiple deaths reported in Cyclone-hit India
At least 17 people are reported dead in two eastern states in India following cyclone Phailin's destructive landfall.
Last Modified: 13 Oct 2013 23:52
Quoting 230. hydrus:
i find this interesting, even tho its a way out. Reminds me of last year.


Has the strongest wind right over me. Hope this doesn't pan out (Probably won't). Reliving last year is something that I really don't want to do.
Here's my temperature forecast for the United States for the October 16-30 period. Feel free to disagree.

A recurving typhoon (Wipha) correlates well with expansive ridging building in over the northwestern Pacific behind it. This creates a downstream trough over the Aleutian Islands which leads to ridging over British Columbia and the Northwest United States. This in turn creates troughing over the Central United States, which is supported by a PNA and -NAO. Typically this cold would expand eastward into the East United States but with a -PDO...a phase that favors ridging over the West Atlantic...think it will be modulated some by the time it gets there. I should note that the Great Lakes are very warm right now. With a cold snap likely to overcome this region, residents in Michigan, Wisconsin, and surrounding states may have to deal with a lake-effect system before Halloween. :)

Moisture returning to the tropics end of October.

I had a eerie experience today. I remember the feeling in the air the day before Sandy. I remember watching vultures flying in the breeze. When I stepped outside today and saw the vultures,it struck me how similar it felt to that day. I got really creeped out.
Quoted from Dr.Masters:
The disturbance is under a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear, and the shear is expected to remain high for the next two days.

That means this system will have a chance to develop after the next couple days before shear will increase again.
Quoting 237. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Here's my temperature forecast for the United States for the October 16-30 period. Feel free to disagree.

A recurving typhoon (Wipha) is a classic jump-start for a very amplified pattern. Expansive ridging develops over the northwestern Pacific, resulting in amplified troughing over the Aleutian Islands. We get a massive ridge over British Columbia, leading to troughing over the Central United States. This is supported by a positive PNA. We might see some leakage of cold air into the East United States given the -NAO pattern, but with -PDO, a ridge will want to form over the West Atlantic and influence the temperature pattern along the East Coast. I should note that the Great Lakes are very warm right now. With a cold snap likely to overcome this region, residents in Michigan, Wisconsin, and surrounding states may have to deal with a lake-effect system before Halloween. :)



I like this forecast, and the only thing I would change is bring the cooler then average temperatures a little further south on the east side. So maybe it extends down to the Virginia of North Carolina coast.
"Gosh all, Get out, How they hypnotize!"

Quoting 148. BaltimoreBrian:
Jeepers, creepers, where'd you get those peepers

Quoting 221. JRRP:

nothing there

wouldn't say *nothing is there:



Two minors plotting in the GOM and another way deep down Panama. And an also likely jumper into the BOC. 95E mitosed, the Nrn half will likely landfall Baja, moistening the entire SWCONUS as soon as he shakes that Srn whirl.
Blog is more dead than dead!

MERRY CHRISTMAS!!!!!!! (I think you got the picture xD)
Hey look guys, I'm getting the right front quadrant of a cyclone after all!

EP, 95, 2013101400, , BEST, 0, 127N, 1165W, 30, 1003, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 150, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 98, 2013101400, , BEST, 0, 139N, 491W, 30, 1009, LO
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #45
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON WIPHA (T1326)
9:00 AM JST October 14 2013
======================================

Southeast Of Minami Daito Island

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Wipha (930 hPa) located at 21.8N 135.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 10 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
375 NM from the center in north quadrant
325 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak intensity: T5.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 26.3N 134.0E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Minami Daito Island
48 HRS: 33.6N 139.5E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Izu Islands
72 HRS: 46.4N 151.4E - Extratropical Low In Kuril Waters
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #45
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NARI (T1325)
9:00 AM JST October 14 2013
======================================

Northern South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Nari (965 hPa) located at 15.5N 111.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Storm Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
210 NM from the center in north quadrant
180 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.5N 108.2E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Northern South China Sea
48 HRS: 16.5N 106.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Laos
72 HRS: 16.2N 103.3E - Tropical Depression Overland Thailand
Quoting barbamz:
Very last post: Report from AlJazeera about the advanced technology of India forecasting cyclones since the catastrophy of 1999:

Multiple deaths reported in Cyclone-hit India
At least 17 people are reported dead in two eastern states in India following cyclone Phailin's destructive landfall.
Last Modified: 13 Oct 2013 23:52


Let me warn you, before you put too much faith in the Al Jazeera report about the Indian typhoon that Andhra Pradesh has the highest population of Muslims of any state in India. The state government and almost all agencies, including the rescue agencies, are run and staffed by Muslims, hence the glowing reports of how well the government performed. You'll note that Al Jazeera was careful to note that most outlying areas have yet to be heard from. If you read the comments to the story, you'll also see a large number are repetitive kudos for the government of the Muslim areas of that part of India. The only reliable agency when it comes to casualty reports in India is the Indian Red Cross. Until you hear directly from them, take any other report with a grain of salt.

Another story on the same page states:

"Unfortunately, unlike countries such as the US and the UK, the Indian Met Department does not have access to a specialized aircraft which could be used to take direct readings of temperature and wind from cyclones."

The first statement is, of course, ridiculous, since the UK has no hurricane hunters, mainly because they have no hurricanes. As I wrote last night, the Indian Air Force and Navy have advanced aircraft, in some cases more advanced than what we are flying, that could be used to establish a hurricane hunter service like the US and NOAA. The Indian Armed Forces, for reasons best known to them, have chosen not to do so. Don't fall for this sympathy pitch. The Indian Air Force is the fourth largest in the world, with more than 1400 aircraft. Al Jazeera is not an unbiased source for news, especially when it comes to India, which has had Muslim/Hindu conflicts for centuries.
251. JRRP
Quoting redwagon:

wouldn't say *nothing is there:



Two minors plotting in the GOM and another way deep down Panama. And an also likely jumper into the BOC. 95E mitosed, the Nrn half will likely landfall Baja, moistening the entire SWCONUS as soon as he shakes that Srn whirl.


i meant SW Caribbean
Quoting Hurricane614:
I had a eerie experience today. I remember the feeling in the air the day before Sandy. I remember watching vultures flying in the breeze. When I stepped outside today and saw the vultures,it struck me how similar it felt to that day. I got really creeped out.

Since vultures usually cruise around because they've spotted something dead, I'd be creeped out too. :-) Sandy was one of the once in a generation storms. Not saying it can't happen again, but it's not very likely.
Quoting 250. sar2401:


Let me warn you, before you put too much faith in the Al Jazeera report about the Indian typhoon that Andhra Pradesh has the highest population of Muslims of any state in India. The state government and almost all agencies, including the rescue agencies, are run and staffed by Muslims, hence the glowing reports of how well the government performed. You'll note that Al Jazeera was careful to note that most outlying areas have yet to be heard from. If you read the comments to the story, you'll also see a large number are repetitive kudos for the government of the Muslim areas of that part of India. The only reliable agency when it comes to casualty reports in India is the Indian Red Cross. Until you hear directly from them, take any other report with a grain of salt.

Another story on the same page states:

"Unfortunately, unlike countries such as the US and the UK, the Indian Met Department does not have access to a specialized aircraft which could be used to take direct readings of temperature and wind from cyclones."

The first statement is, of course, ridiculous, since the UK has no hurricane hunters, mainly because they have no hurricanes. As I wrote last night, the Indian Air Force and Navy have advanced aircraft, in some cases more advanced than what we are flying, that could be used to establish a hurricane hunter service like the US and NOAA. The Indian Armed Forces, for reasons best known to them, have chosen not to do so. Don't fall for this sympathy pitch. The Indian Air Force is the fourth largest in the world, with more than 1400 aircraft. Al Jazeera is not an unbiased source for news, especially when it comes to India, which has had Muslim/Hindu conflicts for centuries.


Other news outlets have also given glowing reports for the effort of the the Indian Met Department and India's National Disaster Response Force (NDRF)..
254. beell
Quoting 237. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Here's my temperature forecast for the United States for the October 16-30 period. Feel free to disagree.


I disagree.

and......an unbiased source for news...
Is that one of those oxy-morons?
Quoting 244. CaribBoy:
Blog is more dead than dead!

MERRY CHRISTMAS!!!!!!! (I think you got the picture xD)


Quoting 245. KoritheMan:
Hey look guys, I'm getting the right front quadrant of a cyclone after all!

Coming to pay me a visit in D.C.
257. JRRP
rest in peace 98L

so if something were to develop in the caribbean/GOM/BOC when would this occur?
Quoting 258. MiamiHeat305:
so if something were to develop in the caribbean/GOM/BOC when would this occur?


Tonight at 10 o' clock.
Quoting 258. MiamiHeat305:
so if something were to develop in the caribbean/GOM/BOC when would this occur?



nevere
Quoting 259. KoritheMan:


Tonight at 10 o' clock.


i meant like when conditions would become favorable
Quoting 258. MiamiHeat305:
so if something were to develop in the caribbean/GOM/BOC when would this occur?
In two days.
Quoting 260. Tazmanian:



nevere


eventually it happens it cant be never even if it wasnt this year
Just kidding unfavorable.
265. beell
Quoting 258. MiamiHeat305:
so if something were to develop in the caribbean/GOM/BOC when would this occur?


I give up. When?
Quoting 258. MiamiHeat305:
so if something were to develop in the caribbean/GOM/BOC when would this occur?




There by that little Twave.
Quoting 266. redwagon:




There by that little Twave.


can you put a star on it thats a map of the entire northern hemisphere lol hard for me to see
Quoting 261. MiamiHeat305:


i meant like when conditions would become favorable


Tonight at 10 o' clock.

What, did you not think I was being serious?
Quoting 268. KoritheMan:


Tonight at 10 o' clock.

What, did you not think I was being serious?


yes in 2 minutes the atl basin will wake up ;)
G A M E - O V E R
Quoting 267. MiamiHeat305:


can you put a star on it thats a map of the entire northern hemisphere lol hard for me to see


Right under Hispanola.
Quoting 271. redwagon:


Right under Hispanola.

oh i see it now thanks :)
Hey guys looks like something wants to start up in the SW Caribbean gonna have ta wait and see what happens
Quoting 273. wunderkidcayman:
Hey guys looks like something wants to start up in the SW Caribbean gonna have ta wait and see what happens

but it already looks like it wants to disappear its like the season doesn't want anything to develop at all.
Quoting 276. MiamiHeat305:

thats where the real storms are :)


There's real storms anywhere but the Atlantic.

Bam, 2013!
Quoting 273. wunderkidcayman:
Hey guys looks like something wants to start up in the SW Caribbean gonna have ta wait and see what happens


80% chance it won't :-) It's 2013...
Quoting 250. sar2401:


Let me warn you, before you put too much faith in the Al Jazeera report about the Indian typhoon that Andhra Pradesh has the highest population of Muslims of any state in India. The state government and almost all agencies, including the rescue agencies, are run and staffed by Muslims, hence the glowing reports of how well the government performed. You'll note that Al Jazeera was careful to note that most outlying areas have yet to be heard from. If you read the comments to the story, you'll also see a large number are repetitive kudos for the government of the Muslim areas of that part of India. The only reliable agency when it comes to casualty reports in India is the Indian Red Cross. Until you hear directly from them, take any other report with a grain of salt.

Another story on the same page states:

"Unfortunately, unlike countries such as the US and the UK, the Indian Met Department does not have access to a specialized aircraft which could be used to take direct readings of temperature and wind from cyclones."

The first statement is, of course, ridiculous, since the UK has no hurricane hunters, mainly because they have no hurricanes. As I wrote last night, the Indian Air Force and Navy have advanced aircraft, in some cases more advanced than what we are flying, that could be used to establish a hurricane hunter service like the US and NOAA. The Indian Armed Forces, for reasons best known to them, have chosen not to do so. Don't fall for this sympathy pitch. The Indian Air Force is the fourth largest in the world, with more than 1400 aircraft. Al Jazeera is not an unbiased source for news, especially when it comes to India, which has had Muslim/Hindu conflicts for centuries.


The proportion of people in Andhra Pradesh who are Muslim is considerably below the national average. 9.17% for the state and 13.43% for India as a whole. In absolute numbers Andhra Pradesh ranks 7th among the states of India in its Muslim population.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013

...OCTAVE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY WHILE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 113.7W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM NW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
Quoting 279. CaribBoy:


80% chance it won't :-) It's 2013...

its already fading as we speak
The Atlantic is as close to getting another named storm as Congress is to reaching an agreement.
Quoting 283. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Atlantic is as close to getting another named storm as Congress is to reaching an agreement.


I hope the Atlantic is further away.
Quoting 283. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Atlantic is as close to getting another named storm as Congress is to reaching an agreement.


Oh, you didn't just go there...
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF OCTAVE HAS LOST SOME ORGANIZATION SINCE
THE LAST ADVISORY. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS STARTING TO TRANSITION INTO
A SHEAR PATTERN...WITH LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTING THAT THE CENTER WAS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION. A 0006 UTC SSMI/S PASS ALSO SUGGESTED AN EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD TILT OF THE VORTEX WITH HEIGHT...PRESUMABLY DUE TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED SINCE 1800 UTC...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 55 KT. OCTAVE HAS ALREADY REACHED THE 26C-
ISOTHERM AND SHOULD MOVE OVER SHARPLY COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE COOLING SEA SURFACE UNDERNEATH THE CYCLONE...
ALONG WITH AN ABRUPT INCREASE IN SHEAR IN 24 HOURS...SHOULD LEAD TO
SLOW WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND BEYOND THAT TIME.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE BULK OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE...WITH OCTAVE FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
IN 48 HOURS AND DISSIPATE SOON AFTER THAT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

OCTAVE HAS MAINTAINED ABOUT THE SAME MOTION OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS...335/13. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WHILE IT MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THE WEAKENING
CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE TO
DECELERATE WHEN THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS SEPARATE FROM
ONE ANOTHER...LEAVING THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND MUCH FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.

THE CURRENT TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS DO NOT WARRANT TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. HOWEVER...INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OCTAVE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 20.6N 113.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 22.3N 114.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 23.9N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 25.0N 113.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 25.8N 112.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
KoritheMan come by my blog and check out comment #550.
Quoting 285. KoritheMan:


Oh, you didn't just go there...


Quoting 288. BaltimoreBrian:
KoritheMan come by my blog and check out comment #550.


I literally busted out laughing in my chair, hahaha.

My blog persona is typically so dark that it actually felt good for a change. :D

Bet that was fun. Geez.
Morny! Ruin sorbees!
Quoting 292. BaltimoreBrian:
Morny! Ruin sorbees!


I'm gonna knock on a random person's door and use that accent when I go to MechaCon next year.

Be like "RUIN SORBEES!"
Quoting 289. GeoffreyWPB:




Seems appropriate.
Farmer's Almanac for the South-East...

Oct 12-15: Hurricane threat;

Quoting Walshy:
Farmer's Almanac for the South-East...

Oct 12-15: Hurricane threat;


Since my taxes are due on the 15th, the OFA got that one right. :-)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:



LOL. That's worth a +1000
I'm sure Texans are loving this.
So are those of us in the PacNW. With a few interruptions, what a fall it has been so far!

Quoting 298. Ameister12:
I'm sure Texans are loving this.
Quoting 298. Ameister12:
I'm sure Texans are loving this.



they cant have it give it too CA
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Atlantic is as close to getting another named storm as Congress is to reaching an agreement.

Good. That means we get a named storm on the 17th. Lots of drama until Thursday but we'll come up with some kind of settlement by then. National default is a little more serious than some people, who are going to get back pay anyway, getting an unplanned vacation.
Quoting 289. GeoffreyWPB:



Completely inappropriate. Ignored, flagged, and reported. The Globe is warming rapidly--and we cannot afford to stand around idle and watch this disaster in the making--in large part to our burning of trillions of tons of CO2 into the atmosphere per year.
Quoting 283. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Atlantic is as close to getting another named storm as Congress is to reaching an agreement.

LOL! Awesome analogy!
Quoting 302. NaplesWebDesigner56:

Completely inappropriate. Ignored, flagged, and reported. The Globe is warming rapidly--and we cannot afford to stand around idle and watch this disaster in the making--in large part to our burning of trillions of tons of CO2 into the atmosphere per year.

Huh. Neapolitan, is that you?? You totally need to take a chill pill. A little humor here and there never hurt anyone dude. The tropics are quiet anyway...
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


The proportion of people in Andhra Pradesh who are Muslim is considerably below the national average. 9.17% for the state and 13.43% for India as a whole. In absolute numbers Andhra Pradesh ranks 7th among the states of India in its Muslim population.

You might want to take a look at a Muslim web site and see what they say. I should have clarified that this is the percentage of Muslims in urban areas. Indians in non-urban areas are almost 100% Hindu and have, for all practical purposes, no political power in states with high proportions of Muslims in urban areas.
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
TYPHOON TINO
11:00 AM PhST October 14 2013
=============================

Typhoon east of extreme northern Luzon has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility and was named "TINO"

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Tino [WIPHA] (958 hPa) located at 21.8N 135.4E or 1,210 km east northeast of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gustiness up to 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 10 knots.

Additional Information
======================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 7.5-15 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 1000 km diameter of the typhoon.

Typhoon "TINO" is expected not to affect any part of the country.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM tonight.
Quoting NaplesWebDesigner56:

Completely inappropriate. Ignored, flagged, and reported. The Globe is warming rapidly--and we cannot afford to stand around idle and watch this disaster in the making--in large part to our burning of trillions of tons of CO2 into the atmosphere per year.

What the heck did a funny picture have to do with AGW? A little bizarre for your 12th post.
Don't doubt the Caribbean disturbance. MJO coming around the mountain.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #46
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON WIPHA (T1326)
12:00 PM JST October 14 2013
======================================

Southeast Of Minami Daito Island

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Wipha (930 hPa) located at 22.3N 135.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 12 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
375 NM from the center in north quadrant
325 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak intensity: T5.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 27.0N 134.0E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Minami Daito Island
45 HRS: 33.6N 139.5E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Izu Islands
69 HRS: 46.4N 151.4E - Extratropical Low In Kuril Waters
Quoting MiamiHeat305:

but it already looks like it wants to disappear its like the season doesn't want anything to develop at all.

It just disappeared. Maybe WKC saw a little heat lightning before it dissipated though. More than I've seen here.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Don't doubt the Caribbean disturbance. MJO coming around the mountain.


Sorry, but I just have to doubt it until MJO makes its much awaited appearance somewhere outside the Pacific basin.
Shear is exiting stage left with the quickness.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #43
DEEP DEPRESSION, FORMER PHAILIN (BOB04-2013)
5:30 AM IST October 14 2013
======================================

Deep depression (PHAILIN) over Jharkhand And adjoining North Chhattisgarh

At 0:00 AM UTC, Deep Depression, Former Phailin over Jharkhand and adjoining areas of north Chhattisgarh and Odisha moved slightly north northeastwards and lays center near 23.8N 84.0E, about 40 km south southwest of Daltonganj (Jharkhand).

The system would move north northeastwards and weaken gradually into a depression during next 6 hours.
Quoting 311. sar2401:

Sorry, but I just have to doubt it until MJO makes its much awaited appearance somewhere outside the Pacific basin.


Spawned Octave? Looking at the Moisture in the Caribbean it looks ripe to receive this time around.
The lowest pressure at any reporting station near the center of Phailin is 1001 mb / 29.56"
WV loops are prime picking for a storm to develop.
317. VR46L


Octave

Some go north and some
go west but it will never
ever be the best.

Shower and thunderstorm activity over the southwestern Caribbean is nothing more than a result of the monsoon trough and Panama low. Standard activity. If you're watching for a storm to form here, you'll be waiting a long time.

If the shear remains
a beast then I expect its
fate to be the least
Quoting 315. BaltimoreBrian:
The lowest pressure at any reporting station near the center of Phailin is 1001 mb / 29.56"


Seemed to be tanking big time at landfall. TS winds in the eyewall at landfall according to the Doctor's post.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #46
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NARI (T1325)
12:00 PM JST October 14 2013
======================================

Northern South China Sea

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Nari (965 hPa) located at 15.4N 111.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Storm Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
210 NM from the center in north quadrant
180 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.3N 107.8E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Overland Vietnam
45 HRS: 16.5N 106.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Laos
69 HRS: 16.2N 103.3E - Tropical Depression Overland Thailand
Quoting 319. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Shower and thunderstorm activity over the southwestern Caribbean is nothing more than a result of the monsoon trough and Panama low. Standard activity. If you're watching for a storm to form here, you'll be waiting a long time.



All due respect but isn't that what makes the Caribbean the hot bed at the end of the season?
Quoting 321. ProgressivePulse:


Seemed to be tanking big time at landfall. TS winds in the eyewall at landfall according to the Doctor's post.


I am sure that is right now pressure as Phailin is a T2.0 tropical depression.
Quoting 323. ProgressivePulse:


All due respect but isn't that what makes the Caribbean the hot bed at the end of the season?

When conditions are favorable, sometimes. The monsoon trough usually isn't the only player though.
326. VR46L
Quoting 321. ProgressivePulse:


Seemed to be tanking big time at landfall. TS winds in the eyewall at landfall according to the Doctor's post.


It really was ...





Quoting 325. TropicalAnalystwx13:

When conditions are favorable, sometimes. The monsoon trough usually isn't the only player though.


Looks like MJO is coming around, plentiful moisture in the Caribbean, Twave entering the area. Just looking suspicious is all.

Rain and thunder but the dry air bubble is almost over us.... tomorrow it will be sunny...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM OCTAVE...LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...ANY FURTHER INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION
WOULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL
STORM OVERNIGHT OR ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWARD AROUND
10 MPH.
Hermes unveils line of $11,000 bicycles

For the environmentally conscious among the 1%. The updated 'limousine liberal' ;)

I see the year 2013 has struck again, basically killing 98L...

Thought I would check in and see how everyone was doing and what the prognosis of 98L would be. Looks like an afternoon rain shower at the moment. Don't mean to downcast, just being realistic at this point.

I got the nail anyone got the hammer so we can finish Hurricane Season 2013?
EP, 15, 2013101406, , BEST, 0, 211N, 1136W, 55, 995, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 20, 0, 0, 1007, 130, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, OCTAVE, D,
AL, 98, 2013101406, , BEST, 0, 147N, 497W, 25, 1009, DB
EP, 95, 2013101406, , BEST, 0, 138N, 1158W, 35, 1001, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 60, 60, 30, 1006, 120, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #47
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON WIPHA (T1326)
15:00 PM JST October 14 2013
======================================

Southeast Of Minami Daito Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Wipha (930 hPa) located at 23.0N 134.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 12 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
375 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
325 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Dvorak intensity: T5.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 28.0N 134.9E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Minami Daito Island
48 HRS: 37.4N 142.7E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Miyagi Prefecture
72 HRS: 48.3N 154.1E - Extratropical Low In Kuril Waters
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #47
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NARI (T1325)
15:00 PM JST October 14 2013
======================================

South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Nari (965 hPa) located at 15.7N 110.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Storm Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in north quadrant
150 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.3N 107.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Vietnam
48 HRS: 16.1N 103.7E - Tropical Depression Overland Thailand
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #44
DEPRESSION, FORMER PHAILIN (BOB04-2013)
8:30 AM IST October 14 2013
======================================

Depression Over Jharkhand And Adjoining North Chhattisgarh

At 3:00 AM UTC, the Deep Depression over Jharkhand and adjoining areas of north Chhattisgarh and Odisha moved slightly north northeastwards and weakened into a depression. "Phailin" now lays close to southwest of Daltonganj (Jharkhand).

The system would move north northeastwards and weaken gradually into a well marked low pressure area by today evening.
EP, 16, 2013101406, , BEST, 0, 138N, 1158W, 35, 1001, TS,
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162013
200 AM PDT MON OCT 14 2013

...YET ANOTHER TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 115.7W
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162013
200 AM PDT MON OCT 14 2013

SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...A COUPLE OF ASCAT
PASSES AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM THE RESEARCH VESSEL MELVILLE...
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS MAXIMUM WINDS OF 35 KT. AS A
RESULT...ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM
PRISCILLA...THE SIXTEENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON IN THE
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN.

OVERNIGHT SATELLITE FIXES SHOW THAT THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER RATE THAN WAS OBSERVED DURING THE
DAY YESTERDAY...HOWEVER THE INITIAL MOTION OF 015/10 KT IS A BIT
MORE UNCERTAIN THAN NORMAL. PRISCILLA SHOULD MOVE NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHICH SHOULD CAUSE
THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD. AS PRISCILLA
WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOWER CYCLONE LATER IN THE PERIOD...IT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING
FLOW WELL WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

PRISCILLA IS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE CENTER LOCATED NEAR
THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS. EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME.
ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER PRISCILLA IS FORECAST TO DECREASE
IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING COOL WATERS AND
A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING
BY 48 HOURS...AND PRISCILLA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT LOW WITHIN 3 TO 4 DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 14.3N 115.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 15.8N 115.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 17.0N 115.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 18.1N 115.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 19.2N 115.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 20.5N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 21.0N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/0600Z 21.0N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013
200 AM PDT MON OCT 14 2013

...OCTAVE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH FOR NOW...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 113.9W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013
200 AM PDT MON OCT 14 2013

OCTAVE APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH. ALTHOUGH THE STORM
HAS MORE OF A SHEARED APPEARANCE THAT IT DID EARLIER...IT STILL IS
PRODUCING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0430 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM
WINDS NEAR 50 KT...AND THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE
FROM 45 TO 65 KT. BASED ON ALL OF THESE DATA...THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED ESTIMATE REMAINS 55 KT. OCTAVE HAS NOW CROSSED THE 26C
ISOTHERM AND IS MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER AIR. THESE EXPECTED HOSTILE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE OCTAVE TO STEADILY WEAKEN...AND THE CYCLONE
IS FORECAST TO BE A REMNANT LOW BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE BAJA
PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT. A
SLOWER NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER TODAY WHILE
OCTAVE ROUNDS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER EASTERN MEXICO. ON
TUESDAY...THE WEAK SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN EVEN FURTHER AND
TURN NORTHEASTWARD IN THE LIGHTER LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFS RUN.

THE CURRENT TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS DO NOT WARRANT TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. HOWEVER...INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS STORM. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH OCTAVE
IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE RAINS WILL CONTINUE FOR A DAY OR TWO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 21.6N 113.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 23.2N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 24.8N 113.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 25.9N 113.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 26.5N 112.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Quoting 302. NaplesWebDesigner56:

Completely inappropriate. Ignored, flagged, and reported. The Globe is warming rapidly--and we cannot afford to stand around idle and watch this disaster in the making--in large part to our burning of trillions of tons of CO2 into the atmosphere per year.


Oh boo, someone needs to lighten up. "Flagged" and "Reported" is abuse of the filtering system when it's for petty stuff like this. You should be ashamed of yourself!

Quoting 348. SunriseSteeda:


Oh boo, someone needs to lighten up. "Flagged" and "Reported" is abuse of the filtering system when it's for petty stuff like this. You should be ashamed of yourself!



I'd also like to add that... CO2 levels and global warming have nothing to do with the context in which that image was posted.

Someone's sporting a complete non sequitur. >.>
Good Morning Folks!..................
Wow an ongoing flooding event occurring in Laredo, TX.. also look at that next huge piece of energy approaching the area too. Wow!!!
Quoting 351. RGVtropicalWx13:
Wow an ongoing flooding event occurring in Laredo, TX.. also look at that next huge piece of energy approaching the area too. Wow!!!
yeah it will be interesting when octaves moisture gets to texas..

Good morning 98L.
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 71 degrees, 71 degree dewpoint, a heat index of 76 and 100% humidity. Hmm, sounds like July and August, not mid October. But at least the high expected is only 84, not 94. We do have a chance of rain today, tomorrow and Wednesday.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: steak, eggs and hash browns, whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, Slow-Poached Eggs with Shrimp and cheesy Grits, Egg, Cheese and chorizo Quesadillas, Raspberry oatmeal breakfast cake, Belgian waffles with strawberries or powdered sugar, Apple pie bites, fruity granola and yogurt parfait, fried honey ham, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!

358. beell
Quoting 319. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Shower and thunderstorm activity over the southwestern Caribbean is nothing more than a result of the monsoon trough and Panama low. Standard activity. If you're watching for a storm to form here, you'll be waiting a long time.



Not out of the question for a disturbance to begin in that general area and move into the EPAC this week. But would agree on low chances for any meaningful development to remain in the ATL basin.

And after further review, a hint or two in the GFS over the last few days that we could see this development try to creep back north into the GOH or BOC.
359. MahFL
Quoting 332. BaltimoreBrian:
Hermes unveils line of $11,000 bicycles


Stolen from your local high street in 3-2-1....lol.
Quoting 302. NaplesWebDesigner56:

Completely inappropriate. Ignored, flagged, and reported. The Globe is warming rapidly--and we cannot afford to stand around idle and watch this disaster in the making--in large part to our burning of trillions of tons of CO2 into the atmosphere per year.


Losin' the bubble pal?
361. beell

click for full images
go to latin america tons of new and old cars hitting the road everyday. exhaust central. i love the smell of progress. i imagine you are seeing this throughout the third world.
363. VR46L
Twins

364. VR46L
Btw Good Morning !
Quoting 364. VR46L:
Btw Good Morning !


Good Morning. Howz the weather up there?
366. VR46L
Quoting 365. PensacolaDoug:


Good Morning. Howz the weather up there?


Its actually great , have had a few beautiful days with no rain and high in the 60's . the storm that battered the rest of NW eurpe gave us a miss !

but looks like it will come to an end shortly

367. VR46L
See completely in the clear

Quoting 367. VR46L:
See completely in the clear



Glad to hear it! We had one of the nicest weekends in a while this weekend. Got to do some boating at Perdido Key and Orange Beach. It was nice.


Fujiwhara effect? :P
370. VR46L
Quoting 368. PensacolaDoug:


Glad to hear it! We had one of the nicest weekends in a while this weekend. Got to do some boating at Perdido Key and Orange Beach. It was nice.


Yeah you have had a very rainy season and a bit of non weather, weather is a welcome treat !
371. VR46L
Quoting 369. Torito:


Fujiwhara effect? :P


I was wondering about a Fuji dance too ....


BTW what is the issue with Goes 14 on the NASA site ?
372. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
considering the amount of clouds acc/ with 98 time of the yr the odds given are pretty low
Quoting 366. VR46L:


Its actually great , have had a few beautiful days with no rain and high in the 60's . the storm that battered the rest of NW eurpe gave us a miss !

but looks like it will come to an end shortly



As someone living in Amsterdam, don't like the look of what's coming from the Atlantic :/ We've had non-stop rain for about 36 hours, just stopped this morning... looks like more is on the way..
Quoting 371. VR46L:


I was wondering about a Fuji dance too ....


BTW what is the issue with Goes 14 on the NASA site ?

Sup Lizzy? Just came back from a vacation to the Irish countryside. I did not wanna leave!!!!!!!
Quoting 371. VR46L:


I was wondering about a Fuji dance too ....


BTW what is the issue with Goes 14 on the NASA site ?

I'll do the Fuji dance with ya. Only if I can take the lead. =)
Quoting 375. stacyrunnergirl:

Sup Lizzy? Just came back from a vacation to the Irish countryside. I did not wanna leave!!!!!!!

Lucky!!!!!!!! You suck!!! haha.
378. VR46L
Quoting 375. stacyrunnergirl:

Sup Lizzy? Just came back from a vacation to the Irish countryside. I did not wanna leave!!!!!!!


Did ya now ? Glad ya had a good time .. Its quite pretty but sure parts of US are truely beautiful
Quoting 377. SouthernIllinois:

Lucky!!!!!!!! You suck!!! haha.

It's been dry by you. How's your fall foliage party girl? I have not seen you here for a while.
380. VR46L
Quoting 376. MassiveCranium:

I'll do the Fuji dance with ya. Only if I can take the lead. =)


I am sure you would ;)

anyway




381. VR46L
Quoting 379. ITCZmike:

It's been dry by you. How's your fall foliage party girl? I have not seen you here for a while.


Yeah I have missed Nat too !
382. RWT
Quoting 377. SouthernIllinois:

Lucky!!!!!!!! You suck!!! haha.
uh oo Nat. drought is creeping up on ya. ;) hey I want the bikini pic back! o;)

383. yoboi
Quoting 363. VR46L:
Twins





wow
Maybe a couple of flurries?

Quoting 356. barbamz:

Good morning 98L.
It has defied the odds of 40 knot shear and is still around!.This thing is really determined to try and form into something.
387. SLU
LOL ..

A category 4/5 hurricane slams into India and kills 20.

A religious stampede in India results in at least 115 dead.

Link
Good day to all. Brilliant blue sky with a few high clouds here in Maine, but it's a perfect day for Sox and Pats fans after yesterday's drama. I don't think there is a more beloved man in all of New England than David Ortiz.

Perfect day for leaf-peeping in New England. Not so perfect if you're driving on one of the leaf-pepper highways and want to get somewhere in a hurry, but that's the price we pay for living here.

Enjoy the Feast of the Lost Italian, everyone.
GFS shows old low moving off and dissipating.




And shows a new one forming.




And then the big boy arrives.



This thing is to determined.
Quoting 302. NaplesWebDesigner56:

Completely inappropriate. Ignored, flagged, and reported. The Globe is warming rapidly--and we cannot afford to stand around idle and watch this disaster in the making--in large part to our burning of trillions of tons of CO2 into the atmosphere per year.
I'm not to sure rather to laugh at this comment or feel sorry for it.You act like all the glaciers are going to melt tomorrow.We know the planet is warming.Relax man.
Global warming will increase intensity of El Nino, scientists say
Scientists say they are more certain than ever about the impact of global warming on a critical weather pattern.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) occurs in the Pacific Ocean but plays an important part in the world's climate system.

Researchers have until now been unsure as to how rising temperatures would affect ENSO in the future.

But this new study suggests that droughts and floods driven by ENSO will be more intense.


Link
Quoting 390. Hurricane614:


This thing is to determined.
The NHC is like "die,die already!".What are you up to 98L é_é....
Nothing going on by me,just beautiful days.........
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
647 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM THIS MORNING...

.PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WATCH AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING HAS RESULTED IN VERY SATURATED SOILS
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY RUN OFF AND RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
FLOODING.

TXZ229-230-239-240-141500-
/O.EXT.KCRP.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-131014T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-WEBB-DUVAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COTULLA...CALLIHAM...CROSS...
LOMA ALTA...TILDEN...LAREDO...FREER...BENAVIDES...SAN DIEGO
647 AM CDT MON OCT 14 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* A PORTION OF SOUTH TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...
DUVAL...LA SALLE...MCMULLEN AND WEBB.

* UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING

* PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WATCH AREA HAS RESULTED IN VERY
SATURATED SOILS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ONE INCH CAN
BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING.

* ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RUN OFF AND RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL FLOODING ESPECIALLY OVER NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
FLOODING NEAR CREEKS AND SMALL STREAMS ARE ALSO LIKELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$
98L...

Quoting 396. GeoffreyWPB:
98L...



It's trying
Octave and Priscilla...

Quoting 397. Hurricane614:


It's trying
it sho is!
Quoting 390. Hurricane614:


This thing is to determined.


I think is not determined, it is terminated.
Quoting 371. VR46L:


I was wondering about a Fuji dance too ....


BTW what is the issue with Goes 14 on the NASA site ?


I don't know, I was wondering that as well.
The way the E PAC is firin' up with Octave & Priscilla, it is "acting like" an El Nino is on the horizon! Although the PAC temps may not be rising much, do ya think ..... it is finally going to happen soon? Especially the way the moisture from the Pacific storms this year keeps getting blown off to the NE toward TX.
404. VR46L
Quoting 399. GeoffreyWPB:
Octave and Priscilla...




Hope Priscilla doesn't fish she could be Queen of the Desert....





edit wrong Image originally
405. NCstu
Quoting 387. SLU:
LOL ..

A category 4/5 hurricane slams into India and kills 20.

A religious stampede in India results in at least 115 dead.

Link


not sure if that's funny, but definitely a good point. Looks like the India met was right on target as far as predicting strength. Part of me wonders if India would have been better off with a more dramatic death toll as that may have brought in more aid. The good news is that they evacuated everyone. The bad news is that the evacuees might not have anything to return to. I saw that 15% of the rice in the state is gone and salt water may hurt the next crop.
So .... I see 98L is going into fish land :/ with all its rain :// the rain we NEEEEEED :///

ONCE AGAIN IN 2013 ://////////
TD Phailin (max wind speeds 30mph). it is expected to finish dissipating by the end of the day.

Wilpha looks beautiful. It appears to be forming a HUGE EYE..

As the Atlantic season winds down and talk of El Nino is out there, the European Model was consistent this year in not showing phantom storms.
India's Cyclone Phailin: Hundreds of thousands return home
BBC, 14 October 2013 Last updated at 06:55 GMT

Hundreds of thousands of people who were evacuated before Cyclone Phailin crashed into eastern India have begun returning to their homes.

But many will remain in shelters as their homes and businesses were wrecked by the strongest cyclone in 14 years.

As the storm weakened a vast relief operation got under way in Orissa and Andhra Pradesh states, where officials say up to one million were displaced.

Mass evacuations managed to keep the death toll to a bare minimum.

Officials said 22 people were killed - all but one of the deaths were in Orissa.

The cyclone flattened many coastal homes, uprooted trees and blocked roads in the two states but the evacuation effort - described by officials as "the biggest in India's history for such an event" - ensured the death toll remained low. ...


Whole article see link above.

BBC weather video from today:
Storm watch around the world
Darren Bett looks at the progress of powerful storms across Asia.
OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE AMPLIFICATION OF A
LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
AS THIS FEATURE EVOLVES...THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WILL DESTABILIZE...ALLOWING DEEP MOISTURE TO SURGE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
AND A EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. THESE INGREDIENTS COMBINED WILL RESULT
IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY REMAIN HIGH.

And we wont get a drop... as usual. Too far EAST... too far WEST... too far SOUTH... too far NORTH....



....always the same story.
OCTAVE



PRISCILLA

Quoting 387. SLU:
LOL ..

A category 4/5 hurricane slams into India and kills 20.

A religious stampede in India results in at least 115 dead.

Link
135 dead = LOL?

Seriously?
My same thought when I sat down and that stared back at me,..and it was a rumor the bridge was collapsing that started the rush, not any "religion"

Laughing at the loss of Human life, says a lot.


Quoting 270. CaribBoy:
G A M E - O V E R


My friend from St. Barth, RIC (rest in calm) until 2014. I think you are right, for 2013, the game is over.

Take Care
Quoting 414. Neapolitan:
135 dead = LOL?

Seriously?
He's laughing at the irony.People predicted more deaths from the cyclone.Not due to a religion riot.


Shaking and cringing due to much close lightning...

More heavy rain

power off now
This is the least active hurricane season since 1983......



EDIT: This is the atlantic hurricane season.
Global ACE....

Link
Quoting Torito:
This is the least active hurricane season since 1983......


Is that Atlantic, or overall ?
Quoting Torito:
Global ACE....

Link

OK, that answers my question. Thanks.
Quoting 421. pottery:

Is that Atlantic, or overall ?


atlantic.

global ACE Is found here. (it is even worse...)

Link
Quoting 423. pottery:

OK, that answers my question. Thanks.


Yea, no problem.
Quoting 421. pottery:

Is that Atlantic, or overall ?
and thats a good thing
Coastal Flood Advisory

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
915 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2013

VAZ099-100-142115-
/O.EXT.KAKQ.CF.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-131015T0000Z/
ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-
915 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2013

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATION...ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
EASTERN SHORE...INCLUDING WACHAPREAGUE...AND AREAS NEAR THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...INCLUDING KIPTOPEKE.

* TIMING...WITHIN ONE TO TWO HOURS ON EITHER SIDE OF HIGH TIDE.

* TIDES...TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL AVERAGE 1.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL. AT
WACHAPREAGUE...HIGH TIDE OCCURS AT 539 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH A FORECAST WATER LEVEL AROUND 6.2 FT MLLW. MINOR FLOODING
AT WACHAPREAGUE BEGINS AT 6.5 FT MLLW. AT KIPTOPEKE...HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AT 542 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FORECAST WATER
LEVEL AROUND 4.4 FT MLLW. MINOR FLOODING AT KIPTOPEKE BEGINS AT
4.5 FT MLLW.

* IMPACTS...THE TIDAL SURGE WILL RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS AND TIDES
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE...
AND NEAR TIDAL RIVERS AND CREEKS. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN
RESULTS IN SOME ROAD CLOSURES. USUALLY...THE MOST VULNERABLE
ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

&&

$$
Octave



Priscilla



No "Fuji dance" yet.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD OVER MAINLY NORTHEAST TEXAS
INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TODAY AND INTO
THE EVENING...THEN IN THE WARM SECTOR IN WAKE OF A WARM
FRONT LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ON TUESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO LATE WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. DUE TO A RICH AND DEEP SUPPLY OF GULF OF MEXICO AND
PACIFIC MOISTURE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY
PROVIDING AMOUNTS FROM ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS TO
FOUR OR FIVE IN SOME LOCATIONS. STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
...HAIL...AND DEADLY LIGHTNING...ESPECIALLY WITH FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE. THE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PONDING
OF WATER IN STREETS...LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. URBAN AND
SMALL STREAMS IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY ALSO FILL TO MINOR OVERFLOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$

06
Good morning everyone. I've got a question, you guys and girls are so good on here with maps and satellite and all. Is there somewhere you can go for up to the minute satellite feed like if you wanna look go down a road and look on different property? See someone has spotted our stolen Chev Dually Western Hauler, it was stolen Jan 13, 2013 and I guess there getting brave by driving it. I just want to look around in the Vincenty where it was seen. Can someone help me? I know this is off subject but I figured you all where the best to turn to.

sheri

Looks like hurricane season is over.
Quoting 423. pottery:

OK, that answers my question. Thanks.

The global numbers are less than the numbers for the Pacific. It says update Oct. 14, but I don't think so.
436. VR46L
Quoting 430. Torito:
Octave



Priscilla



No "Fuji dance" yet.


Too far away :(

Awesome polar low from 2003 I just found while researching cyclones...

438. yoboi
Quoting 304. Coldwellrnd:

Huh. Neapolitan, is that you?? You totally need to take a chill pill. A little humor here and there never hurt anyone dude. The tropics are quiet anyway...
Quoting 430. Torito:
Octave



Priscilla



No "Fuji dance" yet.


Won't happen ..
440. MahFL
Quoting 432. catastropheadjuster:
Is there somewhere you can go for up to the minute satellite feed


Contact these nice people.......


Link
Death toll from Phailin is unfortunately rising - Indian news reports are now saying 33 confirmed dead, 32 of them in Orisha :/
I dont know about yall but I will be glad to see that yellow ball of sunshine..it has been cloudy since ex Karen started her way up and down the coast..

DURING WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTH...THE
RESULT OF UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION.
WHILE THICKNESSES WILL NEVER BECOME TOO IMPRESSIVE...SURFACE
RESPONSE TO THIS WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WARM SW FLOW AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFFSHORE...CREATING...FINALLY...MORE SEASONABLE
FALL WEATHER WITH MORE SUNSHINE.
Quoting 442. ncstorm:
I dont know about yall but I will be glad to see that yellow ball of sunshine..it has been cloudy since ex Karen started her way up and down the coast..

DURING WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTH...THE
RESULT OF UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION.
WHILE THICKNESSES WILL NEVER BECOME TOO IMPRESSIVE...SURFACE
RESPONSE TO THIS WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WARM SW FLOW AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFFSHORE...CREATING...FINALLY...MORE SEASONABLE
FALL WEATHER WITH MORE SUNSHINE.
I had to remind myself what that yellow thing was in the sky this morning.It looked mighty familiar.I had to look it up on google.It's called a sun I think.It sure is drying us out though.
Quoting 403. Stormwatch247:
The way the E PAC is firin' up with Octave & Priscilla, it is "acting like" an El Nino is on the horizon! Although the PAC temps may not be rising much, do ya think ..... it is finally going to happen soon? Especially the way the moisture from the Pacific storms this year keeps getting blown off to the NE toward TX.
What is your reason for doubting NOAA?

There is no indication that an El Nino is on the horizon. Data and analysis indicates a likely ENSO neutral state through next spring.

Current ONI values have been running -0.3 degrees C, (La Nina is -0.5, and El Nino is +0.5 degrees C for three consecutive months).
It appears that the COC of 98L is trying to relocate near the ball of convection near 14N 52 W
Quoting 445. stoormfury:
It appears that the COC of 98L is trying to relocate near the ball of convection near 14N 52 W


Would be good... but it seems that the fishes always win this year.
nari about to make landfall on a already soaked region.Bad news.
Quoting 440. MahFL:


Contact these nice people.......


Link


Thank you, I'm there looking around, trying to find it.

sheri
Quoting 444. Xulonn:
What is your reason for doubting NOAA?

There is no indication that an El Nino is on the horizon. Data and analysis indicates a likely ENSO neutral state through next spring.

Current ONI values have been running -0.3 degrees C, (La Nina is -0.5, and El Nino is +0.5 degrees C for three consecutive months).
The strange behavior of the oceans and atmosphere continues. I am very curious to see what this winter brings.
LOOP

15N 50W heading for Fishland.
451. VR46L
Quoting 450. CaribBoy:
LOOP

15N 50W heading for Fishland.


Could be worse could be a cat5 bearing down on ya !
TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162013
800 AM PDT MON OCT 14 2013

INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF PRISCILLA IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHEASTERN
EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES
ARE BETWEEN 30-35 KT...THE EARLIER ASCAT DATA SHOWED WINDS BETWEEN
35-40 KT...AND THE MOST RECENT OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATE IS T2.9/43
KT. THE LATTER TWO ESTIMATES SUGGEST AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DUE TO 20 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR. THE SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO RELAX IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND PRISCILLA SHOULD
REMAIN OVER WATER OF AT LEAST 26C THROUGH 48 HOURS. AT THE SAME
TIME...HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING COULD BE LIMITED BY
INGESTION OF DRIER AIR WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES NORTHWARD. BY DAY
3...INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...COLDER WATER...AND MORE
STABLE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ALL INDUCE QUICK WEAKENING. THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS
CYCLE...AND IN FACT THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS BRING PRISCILLA NEAR
OR AT HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO
THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.

PRISCILLA HAS TURNED NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER EASTERN MEXICO...AND ITS
INITIAL MOTION IS 010/9 KT. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
MOVING NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL THE BREAK IN THE
RIDGE ALONG 120W FILLS IN AND FORCES PRISCILLA TO SLOW DOWN AND
TURN NORTHWESTWARD. A SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE OCCURRED ON THIS FORECAST CYCLE...WHICH REQUIRED A FAIRLY
SIZEABLE WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST AS
WELL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST STILL LIES
EAST OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE...SO
AN ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENT MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 15.2N 115.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 16.2N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 17.3N 116.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 18.2N 117.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 19.0N 118.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 20.5N 119.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 21.0N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1200Z 20.5N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG


BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013
800 AM PDT MON OCT 14 2013

...OCTAVE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT TURNS NORTHWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 113.7W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE
NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS.



TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013
800 AM PDT MON OCT 14 2013

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/11 KT. OCTAVE IS ON OR JUST NORTH
OF THE LATITUDE OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS
EAST. AS A RESULT...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ON
TUESDAY AS THE CYCLONE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND A BROAD
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT...BUT REMAINS
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.

OCTAVE IS MOVING OVER A NARROW TONGUE OF COLD WATER LESS THAN 24C...
AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AS A
RESULT. AVERAGE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO
45-50 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 50 KT.
OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS IT REMAINS OVER SUB-24C SSTS AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF MORE THAN 30 KT BY 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE
CYCLONE WILL ALSO BE PASSING CLOSE ENOUGH TO A TIGHT SST GRADIENT
AND WARMER WATER JUST TO ITS EAST THAT COULD KEEP AN INFLUX OF
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR FLOWING INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH
WOULD HELP MAINTAIN CONVECTION AND TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY A
LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...SHIP PINX-
WESTERDAM THAT HAS BEEN TRAVERSING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
BAJA THIS MORNING HAS RECENTLY REPORTED 31-KT WINDS...INDICATING
THAT OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF THE WIND FIELD IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE IS NOW OCCURRING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
TIMING...STRENGTH...AND SIZE OF THE OUTER WINDFIELD OF OCTAVE AT
LANDFALL...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR POTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
EVEN IF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOT OBSERVED ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM OCTAVE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
THEREFORE...INTERESTS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 22.6N 113.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 24.2N 113.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 25.4N 112.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 26.0N 112.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/1200Z 26.0N 112.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 437. Torito:
Awesome polar low from 2003 I just found while researching cyclones...


That's not actually a polar low, but rather a more normal occlusion/seclusion. If you really want to see what a polar low looks like, check out this post from the CIMSS Satellite Blog.
Quoting 451. VR46L:


Could be worse could be a cat5 bearing down on ya !


Lol but that won't happen too soon xD I think...