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Category 4 Cyclone Phailin Hits India; 13 Dead in Philippines From Typhoon Nari

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:44 PM GMT on October 12, 2013

Very dangerous Tropical Cyclone Phailin has made landfall on the northeast coast of India near the town of Gopalpur (population 7,000) at 16 UTC (noon EDT) Saturday, October 12, 2013. Phailin was weakening substantially at landfall, due to interaction with land, and was rated a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), four hours before landfall. The pressure bottomed out at 938 mb in Gopalpur as the eye passed over, and the city reported sustained winds of 56 mph, gusting to 85 mph, in the eyewall. A 938 mb pressure is what one expects to find in a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds, using the "Dvorak technique" of satellite wind and pressure estimation. Satellite images show that Phailin's intense thunderstorms have warmed and shrunk in areal coverage, and radar out of Visakhapanam, India also shows a weakening of the storm's echoes as it pushes inland. Phailin is bringing torrential rains of over an inch per hour, as estimated by microwave satellite instruments.


Figure 1. Radar image of Phailin at landfall. Image credit: IMD.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phailin, taken at approximately 07:30 UTC on October 12, 2013. At the time, Phailin was a top-end Category 4 storm with winds of 150 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Damage from Phailin
Phailin is the strongest tropical cyclone to affect India in fourteen years, since the great 1999 Odisha Cyclone. That storm hit with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph, and brought a storm surge of 5.9 meters (19 feet) to the coast. Phailin should be able to drive a similar-sized storm surge to the coast, since it is larger in areal extent than the 1999 cyclone (although somewhat weaker, with winds perhaps 20 - 30 mph lower.) Phailin's storm surge and Category 3 to 4 winds will cause near-catastrophic damage to a 50-mile wide swath of the coast where the eyewall comes ashore, and to the right. Hurricane Katrina was weaker at landfall than Phailin, but Katrina had hurricane-force winds that covered a much larger area, making Katrina's storm surge much more devastating than Phailin's will be. I think the main danger from Phailin will be from its winds. I am particularly concerned about Phailin's wind damage potential in the city of Brahmapur (population 350,000), the 58th largest city in India. Brahmapur lies about ten miles inland, and will likely experience sustained hurricane-force winds for several hours. Phailin's flooding potential is another huge concern, as rainfall amounts of 6 - 12 inches will fall along a swath over 100 miles inland, triggering life-threatening flash flooding.

How strong was Phailin?
Questions have been raised about the India Meteorological Department (IMD) assessments of Phailin's strength, which were considerably lower than that of the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). Both centers use satellite estimates rather than direct measurements of the winds, so we don't know which center is correct. It is true that satellite estimates using the same techniques give different results for the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans--i.e., a storm with the same appearance on satellite imagery will be weaker in the Atlantic than in the Pacific (see this chart of the differences.) It may be that this is the case in the Indian Ocean as well. IMD has looked at some buoy data to try and calibrate their satellite strength estimates, but high-end tropical cyclones are uncommon enough in the Indian Ocean that I doubt we really know whether or not Indian Ocean cyclones have the same winds as a hurricane in the Atlantic with the same satellite signature. Another thing to consider is that the IMD uses 3-minute average winds for their advisories, and JTWC uses 1-minute, so the winds in the IMD advisories will be lower by at least 2%, due to the longer averaging period. This issue could be cleared up if India had its own hurricane hunter aircraft; there have been some high-level discussions about India getting a C-130 aircraft like the U.S. Air Force uses to fly into tropical cyclones and take measurements of the actual winds.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Nari, taken at approximately 02:30 UTC on October 12, 2013. At the time, Nari was a Category 1 storm with winds of 90 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Nari hits the Philippines
Thirteen people were killed and 2.1 million people lost power on the main Philippine island of Luzon afterTyphoon Nari hit on Friday night near midnight local time. Nari was a Category 3 typhoon with 115 mph winds a few hours before landfall. The core of the storm passed about 80 miles north of the capital of Manila, sparing the capital major flooding, but the storm dumped torrential rains in excess of ten inches to the northeast of Manilla. Passage over Luzon weakened Nari to a Category 1 storm, but it is already beginning to re-organize over the South China Sea between the Philippines and Vietnam. Nari is under moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, which should keep intensification relatively slow, and increasing interaction with land will act to slow intensification on Sunday and Monday. Nari could be near Category 3 strength with 115 mph winds by Monday, and landfall in Vietnam is expected around 21 UTC on Monday.

Typhoon Wipha a threat to Japan
Category 1 Typhoon Wipha is intensifying as it heads northwest towards Japan, and the storm is expected to reach major Category 3 strength by Monday. By Tuesday, Wipha will recurve to the northeast and begin weakening, passing very close to Tokyo, Japan, sometime between 00 - 12 UTC on Wednesday. High winds and heavy rains from Wipha may be a concern for the Fukushima nuclear site, where workers continue to struggle with high radiation levels in the wake of the 2011 tsunami that damaged the reactors.

98L in the Eastern Atlantic weakening
A tropical wave (Invest 98L) located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands is headed west to west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph. Satellite loops show that 98L has lost most of its organization and heavy thunderstorms since this morning. The disturbance is under a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear, and the shear is expected to remain high for the next three days. The UKMET model shows some weak development of 98L by early next week, but the European and GFS models do not. In their 2 pm EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 30%, and 5-day odds of 30%. 98L's projected west-northwest track is expected take it close to the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Wednesday, according to the 00Z Saturday run of the European model.

Thanks go to wunderground member thunderfrance for posting the link to the weather station at Gopalpur, India.

NDTV in India has a Live Blog on Phailin with the latest developments.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Typhoon 02B

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 OCT 2013 Time : 170000 UTC
Lat : 19:18:01 N Lon : 84:45:36 E


TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
NO ADT ANALYSIS AVAILABLE




http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/02BP.GI F
not going to last,sheer is just too high.....
well unless something pops up on the next 30 days,atlantic season just might be over...
Thanks, Dr. Masters.
Thanks Doc !!!
Quoting 767. hydrus:
I am glad this year is a disappointment.


Feel the same way....If we were living in the Pac, would we be posting here "What a wonderfull season we are having"?

Really, this year leaving out the BOC systems, this is one of the best seasons ever in the Atl...
Thank you Dr. Masters
Quoting 3. LargoFl:
well unless something pops up on the next 30 days,atlantic season just might be over...
well in 1986 the last storm of a boring season did not form till nov 18 till 21

so there is still a chance no matter how small
Quoting 3. LargoFl:
well unless something pops up on the next 30 days,atlantic season just might be over...


The conditions in the Atlantic were more often resembling a dessert since mid June this year.



Thanks Dr. Masters for the instructive new blog, especially for the clarifying remarks concerning the differences between IMD and JTWC.

Reposted from the end of the last blog:


I'm seasick from looking at this RAW video about Phailin's waves earlier.
Quoting 8. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
well in 1986 the last storm of a boring season did not form till nov 18 till 21

so there is still a chance no matter how small
yes oct is not good for storms close to home this year,maybe Nov will give us a surprise storm..guess we never know huh..
some area's in texas might get 9-10 inches of rain over the coming week...stay alert over there....
Quoting 3. LargoFl:
well unless something pops up on the next 30 days,atlantic season just might be over...
its over and been over
Quoting 9. VR46L:


The conditions in the Atlantic were more often resembling a dessert since mid June this year.





I think this big sal outbreak of early August was the culprit for bringing all the dry air to MDR that affected the season.

"Another thing to consider is that the IMD uses 10-minute average winds for their advisories"

I thought IMD uses 3-minute winds?
Eye filling in as the storm weakens and moves inland.


Once again the TV live coverages on Phailin:

NDTV

CNN/IBN

I think only in daylight tomorrow it slowly will be clear what the damage of Phailin really is. Most of the towns are voluntarily without power, and no one can venture out into the complete dark and the howling winds to look at what is happening.

They constantly tell on NDTV (interviewing people), that a lot of people only moved into some make shift shelters when the eye of Phailin already was very near to the coast. Before inhabitants wouldn't believe the authorities that this really would be a life threatening situation until they've realized it with their own eyes. - This explains that the number of evacuees suddenly is up to 700.000 people, according to NDTV.

Edit: Right now they speak of about 800.000 evacuees (NDTV).


look at that huge band to the north of the center of the storm
Quoting 15. yqt1001:
"Another thing to consider is that the IMD uses 10-minute average winds for their advisories"

I thought IMD uses 3-minute winds?


Yep , I understand it's 3 minutes Too !
@NorthAndrew 25m
Wind now tearing down main hotel corridor, so strong can barely stand. Rooms flooding w/rainwater. Gonna be long night #Phaliin

Visakhapatnam radar shows the eye of Phailin traveling further on land.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC225-121900-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0130.131012T1813Z-131012T1900Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
113 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 200 PM CDT

* AT 113 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED OVER LATEXO...OR NEAR CROCKETT...AND MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE DAMAGING WINDS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CROCKETT...GRAPELAND...KENNARD...LATEXO AND WECHES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

folks in texas..pay attention to your local warnings this week......A POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS FROM SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC...ALONG WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF...WILL COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
TO RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN URBAN AREAS...ESPECIALLY AT LOW
WATER CROSSINGS AND BRIDGE UNDERPASSES. REMEMBER...TURN
AROUND...DON`T DROWN. IT ONLY TAKES ONE TO TWO FEET OF WATER TO
WASH YOUR VEHICLE OFF THE ROAD.

ALSO...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE UPDATES TO THE FORECAST.

$$
Last news from the live blog of The Times of India

Cyclone Phailin has hit land near Gopalpur in Odisha with a windspeed of around 200kmph, director general of IMD LS Rathore has confirmed.

11:30 PM
As per IMD data, the rainfall received in Bhubaneswar from 8.30am to 8.30pm was 130mm, while Gopalpur and Puri received 78mm and 81mm respectively.
11:16 PM
"The areas likely to suffer maximum damage are the stretch between Kalingaptam and Paradip while adding that Gopalpur will be the epicentre."
-IMD director general LS Rathore
11:15 PM
"The intensity of Cyclone Phailin will not reduce as of now but could go up to 210 to 220kmph as earlier predicted."
-IMD director general LS Rathore
11:12 PM
High tide has been reported from the sea resort of Digha in West Bengal with Cyclone Phailin hitting the Odisha coast. ...
This is why Texas will be getting heavy rains and storms...........it WILL be tropical...............DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE AND HIGH LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE AIRMASS
WILL BE TROPICAL WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR
FLOODING WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE REMNANTS OF A PACIFIC CYCLONE.
Quoting 3. LargoFl:
well unless something pops up on the next 30 days,atlantic season just might be over...
I think you may be right Largo... Looking better for us every day...Love it
"Another thing to consider is that the IMD uses 10-minute average winds for their advisories, and JTWC uses 1-minute, so the winds in the IMD advisories will be lower by at least 6%, due to the longer averaging period."

the IMD uses a 3-minute average
Tired with the Saharan desert..
Quoting 28. PalmBeachWeather:
I think you may be right Largo... Looking better for us every day...Love it
yes we dont need anything tropical now..we've had alot of rain these last few months..
Quoting 16. Sfloridacat5:
Eye filling in as the storm weakens and moves inland.


take this evil vision from our sight
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED ABOUT
MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE STEADILY BECOMING UNFAVORABLE...AND DEVELOPMENT IS
BECOMING LESS LIKELY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAN
BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
invest 98L DOWN TO 30%
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC035-121930-
/O.NEW.KFWD.SV.W.0242.131012T1828Z-131012T1930Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
128 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BOSQUE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT

* AT 129 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MERIDIAN STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
CLIFTON AROUND 140 PM...


I just hope they all moved like they say
go 94 e....oh yeah baby.....people already talki that it might bring tropical moisture to el paso.....
Nam precip for wens.....................
Twitter from:

Eric Holthaus %u200F@EricHolthaus 18m
High tide is still a few hours (~4hrs) away, so sea level will continue rising near & NE of #CyclonePhailin landfall.


So Phailin struck at low tide, which is good news as much as I guess.
My forecast for the year will be RIGHT ON. I said 0-1 MH and that looks to be correct.
Quoting 39. barbamz:
Twitter from:

Eric Holthaus ‏@EricHolthaus 18m
High tide is still a few hours (~4hrs) away, so sea level will continue rising near & NE of #CyclonePhailin landfall.


So Phailin struck at low tide, which is good as much as I guess.
im wondering if that 20ft storm surge really happened..half of my county would have been underwater if that came in here. wow
The 18 fishermen are still missing, according to IBN.

Phailin hit at low tide. Some good news for India after their biggest evacuation in 23 years.
Quoting 3. LargoFl:
well unless something pops up on the next 30 days,atlantic season just might be over...
Means it will be busier in the future instead. Not if, but when.
Thank you Dr. Masters...Hoping for the best in India...But I'm sure the"best" is out of the question...Sad
Quoting 28. PalmBeachWeather:
I think you may be right Largo... Looking better for us every day...Love it
This season has been too good to be true..
And strangely dry weather for October in Florida.
im glad im 48ft above sea level..half my county would be underwater and..for a time i'd be on an island til waters receded lol...............CLEARWATER — The gradual slope of the continental shelf in the Gulf of Mexico. Raging winds pushing water onto shore. The low elevation of waterfront — and many upland — communities in a county surrounded by water on three sides.

Add them all together and emergency management officials have a good idea of the outcome: massive flooding caused by storm surge that could inundate about 42 percent of Pinellas County homes in a Category 3 hurricane
Quoting 47. unknowncomic:
This season has been too good to be true..
And strangely dry weather for October in Florida.
a front comes next weekend which might change things again.
Quoting 37. ricderr:
go 94 e....oh yeah baby.....people already talki that it might bring tropical moisture to el paso.....



Reservoir Storage Index

Texas Water Development Board Drought Info



Quoting 47. unknowncomic:
This season has been too good to be true..
And strangely dry weather for October in Florida.
I'm thinking 2 more systems before the end of the season. We'll see what happens with the MJO it may visit our area one last time by the end of the month. I'm also noticing the past few runs on the GFS has been showing a pretty strong system in the EPAC towards the end of the run. So we'll see if there is any teleconnection between the WPAC and Indian Ocean activity and the EPAC and Atlantic activity.
Quoting 50. beell:



Reservoir Storage Index

Texas Water Development Board Drought Info



yes you have warnings for it..stay alert and safe over there.
Quoting 51. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I'm thinking 2 more systems before the end of the season. We'll see what happens with the MJO it may visit our area one last time by the end of the month. I'm also noticing the past few runs on the GFS has been showing a pretty strong system in the EPAC towards the end of the run. So we'll see if there is any teleconnection between the WPAC and Indian Ocean activity and the EPAC and Atlantic activity.
Just seems like the system three vortices cannot line up this year. That will change. When?
taken from one of doc's older blogs about the tampa area............Tampa Bay's vulnerability to hurricanes
Tampa Bay doesn't get hit very often by hurricanes. The last time it suffered a direct hit by any hurricane was 1946, when a Category 1 storm came up through the bay. The Tampa Bay Hurricane of October 25, 1921 was a the last major hurricane to make landfall in the Tampa Bay Region. At that time, there were 160,000 residents in the 4-county region, most of whom lived in communities on high ground. Today there are 2.75 million residents in the region, most of whom live along the coast and low-lying areas or in manufactured housing. About 1/3 of the 4-county Tampa Bay region lies within a flood plain. Over 800,000 people live in evacuation zones for a Category 1 hurricane, and 2 million people live in evacuation zones for a Category 5 hurricane, according to the 2010 Statewide Regional Evacuation Study for the Tampa Bay Region. Given that only 46% of the people in the evacuation zones for a Category 1 hurricane evacuated when Category 4 Hurricane Charley threatened the region, the potential for hundreds or thousands of people to die when the next major hurricane hits the region is high. In the long run, I expect a multi-billion dollar sea wall will be built to protect Tampa Bay from storm surges, since sea level rise will make storm surge damages increasingly problematic. A 2007 study by Tufts University titled, Florida and Climate Change, found that a 2.25 foot increase in sea level--which many sea level rise scientists expect will happen by the end of the century--would put 152,000 people in Pinellas County (where St. Petersburg is located) at risk of inundation.
It seems that Cyclone Phailin's eye was growing smaller (on radar images) in the final hours, as it was nearing the coast of India. But, the storm was weakening at the time of landfall.

Many times when the eye in a hurricane or cyclone appears to be contracting or is very tiny, it is getting stronger. The overall convection of Cyclone Phailin seemed to shrink or diminish in the final hours before the eye made landfall. However; the eyewall seemed to be really organized on satellite pictures, except being covered with some clouds.

Why did it (the eye) appear to get so tiny at landfall? Was dry air getting entrained into the outer edges of the overall system, causing it to weaken? Just wondering. Tropical weather is always so interesting.

Hope the coastal and inland residents were ready for the storm, because it still looked impressive near that eye!
Quoting 52. LargoFl:
yes you have warnings for it..stay alert and safe over there.


why should i adopt such sensible advice at this stage of my life?
02B/OLCYC/P/CX
Quoting 48. LargoFl:
im glad im 48ft above sea level..half my county would be underwater and..for a time i'd be on an island til waters receded lol...............CLEARWATER — The gradual slope of the continental shelf in the Gulf of Mexico. Raging winds pushing water onto shore. The low elevation of waterfront — and many upland — communities in a county surrounded by water on three sides.

Add them all together and emergency management officials have a good idea of the outcome: massive flooding caused by storm surge that could inundate about 42 percent of Pinellas County homes in a Category 3 hurricane
Hope that does not happen anytime soon! The Tampa area is so overdue for a major hurricane. Like since 1921, overdue!
A good deal of Texas' drought will be wiped away by this upcoming heavy rainfall event. I'm sure it's a welcome change.

This is a much better picture than a year ago.

Quoting beell:


why should i adopt such sensible advice at this stage of my life?

Yep.
Best to remain Oblivious.

Works for me !

:):))
Quoting 9. VR46L:


The conditions in the Atlantic were more often resembling a dessert since mid June this year.



I am watching to see if 98L can make it into the Caribbean Sea...Could be interesting if it does.
Spending the beginning of my vacation yesterday and today on severe weather and especially on bad impacts of Phailin, I'm now out for today. May the people in India survive this night as well as possible. - Good evening/night everybody from Germany and a good start into Sunday.

Here is the Atlantic, showing some severe weather in the southern areas of Western Africa. Poor people over there got drenched the whole season already.


Edit: Oh yes, and keep an eye on Nari:


saved image


TPPN11 PGTW 121826

A. TYPHOON 25W (WIPHA)

B. 12/1732Z

C. 18.0N

D. 137.9E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.5 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 4.5. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


SCHALIN


TPPN10 PGTW 121821

A. TYPHOON 24W (NARI)

B. 12/1732Z

C. 15.7N

D. 115.6E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T4.5/5.0/W0.5/27HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.45 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 4.5. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


SCHALIN
INV98L DEACTIVATE

Quoting 61. hydrus:
I am watching to see if 98L can make it into the Caribbean Sea...Could be interesting if it does.


Yes that is where it could be interesting as its where the conditions are at there best , And its the pattern for October...

Nari is firing some incredibly cold cloudtops, at or below -90C.

Quoting 58. Stormwatch247:
Hope that does not happen anytime soon! The Tampa area is so overdue for a major hurricane. Like since 1921, overdue!
yes indeed..its why i searched the web for a site like this..active...glad i found it.
Japan just might luck out with this one..maybe...
hey what is that strange wet stuff in texas?..grandpa said long ago..they called it rain? (:
The Atlantic and East Pacific basins have one more chance to produce a >Cat. 3 storm. We'll see..

Here's a satellite animation link of Phailin making landfall from IMD website:

Link
Quoting 72. LargoFl:
hey what is that strange wet stuff in texas?..grandpa said long ago..they called it rain? (:


LOL !!!

I know a few Texans that will be more than happy !
Is over
Quoting 59. TropicalAnalystwx13:
A good deal of Texas' drought will be wiped away by this upcoming heavy rainfall event. I'm sure it's a welcome change.

This is a much better picture than a year ago.




Yes, good to see drought declining nationwide.

What was not good was seeing the last remaining hopeful team in my profile pic go down the drain.....

At least it's a beautiful fall day outside, although it does seem greener than normal for this time of year.
The core is mostly over land now

Quoting 73. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Atlantic and East Pacific basins have one more chance to produce a >Cat. 3 storm. We'll see..



are any models picking up on development right now i think the FIM was showing something some time ago? how are the atmospheric conditions looking for mid to late oct? i know right now in florida its dry driest its been in months.
nooooooo it's overrrr

lol
Quoting 81. CaribBoy:
nooooooo it's overrrr

lol


its not over until it is officially over.. hurricane season that is... 98L is done though
Quoting 79. MiamiHeat305:


are any models picking up on development right now i think the FIM was showing something some time ago? how are the atmospheric conditions looking for mid to late oct? i know right now in florida its dry driest its been in months.

Not bullishly. The GFS ensembles have increased moisture and lower pressures in the Bay of Campeche towards the end of October.


Sigh..
Quoting 83. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Not bullishly. The GFS ensembles have increased moisture and lower pressures in the Bay of Campeche towards the end of October.


seems like thats where most of 2013 has taken place if only something out of there didn't go into tampico would be more interesting
Quoting 84. CaribBoy:


Sigh..


dont worry CaribBoy i will wishcast lots of rain for you :)
Quoting 86. MiamiHeat305:


dont worry CaribBoy i will wishcast lots of rain for you :)


Haha xD THANKS
Quoting 84. CaribBoy:


Sigh..

There's always next year. :)
Quoting 88. TropicalAnalystwx13:

There's always next year. :)


...and the year after next xD

But will have to be patient during the boring winter/dry season
Quoting 89. CaribBoy:


...and the year after next xD

But will have to be patient during the boring winter/dry season
maybe ya will get more rain this winter than ya had all summer
Quoting 91. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
maybe ya will get more rain this winter than ya had all summer


Lol that would be great! Hopefully the cold fronts will move as far south as 18N... and stay wet enough to bring us decent rain!
Keep an eye on the SW Caribbean close to Panama. This may be the next area for tropical developement, in 3 to 5 days.
94. SLU
A wind surge accompanied by winds of 25 - 30mph racing towards the Windwards.

The low level wind flow is increasing behind and it is catching up with the lighter winds further west. This is causing convergence and thus the development of thunderstorms.



Quoting 93. scott39:
Keep an eye on the SW Caribbean close to Panama. This may be the next area for tropical developement, in 3 to 5 days.

did see models arent as enthusiastic about it as 2 days ago though .. what model is picking up on that area now?
Quoting 40. SuperStorm093:
My forecast for the year will be RIGHT ON. I said 0-1 MH and that looks to be correct.
YOU are still not BANNED ?!!! Like really...
Doesn't look like Barbados is laking of rain.
Quoting 52. LargoFl:
yes you have warnings for it..stay alert and safe over there.


How do you stay safe from drought ?
Quoting 82. MiamiHeat305:


its not over until it is officially over.. hurricane season that is... 98L is done though
And even when it is "officially over" it may not be over...Remember 2005
Quoting 95. MiamiHeat305:

did see models arent as enthusiastic about it as 2 days ago though .. what model is picking up on that area now?
NCEP/EMC maps and the FIM 9 was showing it.
Quoting 98. MahFL:


How do you stay safe from drought ?


Stillsuits.



Dune fans... anyone?
Some spin going on in the SW Caribbean.
103. VR46L
Quoting 96. Climate175:
YOU are still not BANNED ?!!! Like really...


I actually think there is alot of truth in what he and others have said . It has been a bust season ... 24 hr TS is the norm ... the NHC had to be quick to name them or they would have missed them .

I hope this is not bannable but it has been a dud season for Atlantic storm trackers .

NAM showing the Low in the S.W. Caribbean. Southern Caribbean has been a hot spot this season with Lows forming and moving WNW to the Yucatan/BOC.
Have to watch this area to see if something forms and moves northerly.
18z NAM at 84 hours.
Quoting 103. VR46L:


I actually think there is alot of truth in what he and others have said . It has been a bust season ... 24 hr TS is the norm ... the NHC had to be quick to name them or they would have missed them .

I hope this is not bannable but it has been a dud season for Atlantic storm trackers .


He may have been right about this season being a bust, but he all season long he has been acting like a rude, childish jerk. Nobody here enjoys his presence on this blog.
107. VR46L
@106 Ameister12 Well there is always the iggy button if someone is being rude I guess... I don't have anyone on iggy maybe I have a higher tolerance ... It would take for someone behaving absolutely disgracefully for me to ban ....
Pressure may have been a bit lower since the center of Phailin's eye was a little south of Gopalpur at landfall. 930-935 mb seems a good guess to me.
Not a lot in the model runs. GFS shows a weak Karen-ish system 15 days out.

GEM has a glitch. It's like the Harlem Shake.

48 hours out



54 hours out

Quoting 110. DonnieBwkGA:
Not a lot in the model runs. GFS shows a weak Karen-ish system 15 days out.

GEM has a glitch. It's like the Harlem Shake.

48 hours out



54 hours out


Looks like the WPac pressure grid may have been accidentally been placed over the Atlantic PWs. Seems to happen every once and a while on Levi's products.
112. IKE
Montgomery,AL...forecast for the end of next week....

  • Friday A 30 percent chance of showers. Sunny, with a high near 77.
  • Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 54.
  • Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 74.

Quoting 111. 1900hurricane:

Looks like the WPac pressure grid may have been accidentally been placed over the Atlantic PWs. Seems to happen every once and a while on Levi's products.


Wonder how that happens. The fake storms are there through 78 hours and then disappear. If I had time I'd make a slow animation and set it to the Harlem Shake music.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #35
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM PHAILIN (BOB04-2013)
23:30 PM IST October 12 2013
======================================

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Over Northwest Adjoining West Central Bay of Bengal Has Crossed Coast Close To Gopalpur (Odisha)

At 18:00 PM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Phailin over northwest adjoining west central Bay of Bengal moved north northwestwards during past 3 hours at about 8 knots and crossed Odisha & adjoining north coastal Andhra Pradesh near Gopalpur between 20:30-21:30 PM IST

The system now lays center near 19.5N 84.8E, about 25 km northwest of Gopalpur over south coastal Odisha. The system would move in north northwestwards and weaken gradually.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 105 knots with gusts of 120 knots. Phailin central pressure is 940 hPa

Forecast And Intensity
==========================
12 HRS: 21.5/83.5 - 30 knots (Deep Depression)

Further information will be issued on the Cyclone Warning For India (CWIND) page at about 0:00 AM UTC (0530 AM IST)..
115. VR46L
Quoting 110. DonnieBwkGA:
Not a lot in the model runs. GFS shows a weak Karen-ish system 15 days out.

GEM has a glitch. It's like the Harlem Shake.

48 hours out



54 hours out



FSU Is different



has to be some mistake on the version you are showing
Quoting 115. VR46L:


FSU Is different



has to be some mistake on the version you are showing


Of course there is! That's why I posted it LOL. 1900hurricane explained that this sort of glitch has happened before.
117. txjac
Quoting 106. Ameister12:

He may have been right about this season being a bust, but he all season long he has been acting like a rude, childish jerk. Nobody here enjoys his presence on this blog.


I agree, has some attitude ...but there are many on here that have "attitudes", "personality", "know it all", "superiour", etc ... should we ban everyone with an attitude ...the fun and excitement of the blog would be gone. I like it how it is, attitudes and all

Look beyond the attitude to hear the message

I've done that with some on here and it works well
119. txjac
Have gotten about .40" here on the west side of Houston ...I always time this wrong. Was getting my hair cut (hate it by the way) when we had the storm.

Wanted to be home to have the .40" rain experience.

Oh well, looks like I might get another chance


Just seems like the center of 98L keeps pushing shear aside, seems to be moving in tandem with the lowest shear for now!

850mb vort still strong.


I wouldn't forget about 98L. I'm curios to see if it can start consolidating tonight, for the ball of cold cloud tops kind of hints that may be happening. I would also not let my guard down for a handful of ensembles throw it toward CONUS.
New day on Wipha:

123. txjac
The blog is quieter now than it is in the winter ...
Quoting 123. txjac:
The blog is quieter now than it is in the winter ...


I was thinking the same thing, really strange for mid-October.
Woah, rain in Texas? Nice.

Quoting 121. Hurricane614:


I wouldn't forget about 98L. I'm curios to see if it can start consolidating tonight, for the ball of cold cloud tops kind of hints that may be happening. I would also not let my guard down for a handful of ensembles throw it toward CONUS.
Yes the models are trending more towards Bahamas now because of it remaining weak for next several days due to shear. If it develops now [which should not happen] it would likely go north and miss all land. However if it remains weak [very likely] and goes to the so called "sweet spot" NE of PR then the S.E U.S may need to watch this as shear may weaken by then.
98L...



128. txjac
Quoting 125. Astrometeor:
Woah, rain in Texas? Nice.



I'm sitting here hoping for a bit more there Astro. My rain chances are below 50% from here on to the rest of the early week. Would love the rain in the evening hours so I am at home to enjoy it
Quoting 110. DonnieBwkGA:
Not a lot in the model runs. GFS shows a weak Karen-ish system 15 days out.

GEM has a glitch. It's like the Harlem Shake.

48 hours out



54 hours out




safe too say hurricane season is overe
Quoting 117. txjac:


I agree, has some attitude ...but there are many on here that have "attitudes", "personality", "know it all", "superiour", etc ... should we ban everyone with an attitude ...the fun and excitement of the blog would be gone. I like it how it is, attitudes and all

Look beyond the attitude to hear the message

I've done that with some on here and it works well
Hitlers ghost, you're right! Now lets talk about weather again.
Quoting 126. mrmombq:
Yes the models are trending more towards Bahamas now because of it remaining weak for next several days due to shear. If it develops now [which should not happen] it would likely go north and miss all land. However if it remains weak [very likely] and goes to the so called "sweet spot" NE of PR then the S.E U.S may need to watch this as shear may weaken by then.
Quoting 131. mrmombq:


been looking closer to home for development but i guess il keep an eye on the open atlantic just in case
Quoting 123. txjac:

The blog is quieter now than it is in the winter ...

Its so quiet on here, its like a lot of people are sulking because the Pacific and now the Indian ocean's are having so much activity, while most of the bloggers hang around the Atlantic.
Meanwhile the few of us over in Europe have no tropical activity worth mentioning and we have have to make do with hitch hiking on everybody else's excitement.
Tonight its 19/C here near Seville Spain and the cold north where Barb and others are in is experiencing a bit of nasty weather. The north od Africa is quiet and winter is about 2 months away from us.
Nothing more to report, hope everybody is surviving along as best they can.
Quoting 125. Astrometeor:
Woah, rain in Texas? Nice.

Yeah, every bit helps, but I bet West Texas would really like some showers like that, or even a sprinkle perhaps. It really is like it's own country. Ever drive across it in any direction? Most folks who live there have never been to the other side.
One of, if not the only, severe t-storm warnings out right now:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
529 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CONCORDIA PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...VIDALIA...FERRIDAY...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 529 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
NORTHEAST OF WILDSVILLE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
FROGMORE BY 540 PM CDT...
WEST FERRIDAY AND FERRIDAY BY 545 PM CDT...
VIDALIA BY 600 PM CDT...
DEER PARK BY 605 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS OF 60 MPH CAN BRING DOWN TREES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN INJURY
AND PROPERTY DAMAGE. ROOFS OF MOBILE HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS COULD BE
DAMAGED...AND MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO WELL BUILT HOMES AND STRUCTURES
COULD OCCUR.
The track of Wipha has been trending closer to Japan in the past few runs..

Quoting 134. Pallis:
Yeah, every bit helps, but I bet West Texas would really like some showers like that, or even a sprinkle perhaps. It really is like it's own country. Ever drive across it in any direction? Most folks who live there have never been to the other side.


Yeah, started from El Paso and went to the Caverns in New Mexico, then all the way across to LA then to Jackson, MS. Part of a huge cross-country road trip my family did as part of my sister's graduation from Caltech.

Saw some really bad soil conditions, sorry, dust conditions, not even enough to be called soil.
Several inches of rain for Texas and Oklahoma.

does anyone have links or images to the models showing development in the SW caribbean soon?


Last post from me for the evening. Good night everyone.
Quoting mrmombq:
98L is very persistent, right now is looking better than a few hours ago, despite the hostile conditions, and may stand a chance. Around the northern islands upper level winds are low...
Also now that I check there does appear a robust-ish spin in the SW Caribbean, but it lacks any thunderstorms except on it NE side. Just a interesting note, not saying this is going to be a Sandy at all, this is about the place and time Sandy formed.
An acquaintance crossed over from Texas into New Mexico some years ago and at the state border came upon a sign: "Remember, only you can prevent forest fires." Good, only little of what was growing was even a foot tall anywhere within sight.

This picture is labeled "no trees" in Wikimedia.



I'm not sure what is more significant out there. Drought or the depletion of the Ogallala aquifer. I don't think average rainfall keeps up with that.
Here's another Wikimedia picture labeled "Windmill at Buffalo Lake National Wildlife Refuge pumping water from the Ogallala Aquifer."

98 trying
146. txjac
Has Saturday night really come to this?

Glass of very nice Californian merlot and a bucket full of new bathroom cleaning supplies ...

I really need to get a life ...lol

No more rain yet
Phailin has looked surprisingly organized all day for a system that has made landfall...
What temps do you need for fall colors to show? And i am so confused on what is going on with the trees, my big tree in my back yard is still green but the days are getting shorter every day and still no color change? Does it need to be in the low 50s ? Somebody please answer.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT OCT 12 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA
INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. IF
CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER
TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. AFTER THAT...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AND DEVELOPMENT WILL BE UNLIKELY
TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...
80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...HAS FORMED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE DISTURBANCE
TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD.
Quoting 148. Climate175:
What temps do you need for fall colors to show? And i am so confused on what is going on with the trees, my big tree in my back yard is still green but the days are getting shorter every day and still no color change? Does it need to be in the low 50s ?


temperature has no effect on the color in tree leaves it is the length of the day light hours that cause the change ..
Quoting 133. PlazaRed:

Its so quiet on here, its like a lot of people are sulking because the Pacific and now the Indian ocean's are having so much activity, while most of the bloggers hang around the Atlantic.
Meanwhile the few of us over in Europe have no tropical activity worth mentioning and we have have to make do with hitch hiking on everybody else's excitement.
Tonight its 19/C here near Seville Spain and the cold north where Barb and others are in is experiencing a bit of nasty weather. The north od Africa is quiet and winter is about 2 months away from us.
Nothing more to report, hope everybody is surviving along as best they can.


Hey, Plaza good to see you on here. I guess some people are watching the NASCAR race which is on ABC, while it usually is not on a free channel. Some
of them may be doing that. I was watching LSU-Florida 17-6 LSU... So, what you been up too. Don't see you here often as before.
Quoting 151. whitewabit:


temperature has no effect on the color in tree leaves it is the length of the day light hours that cause the change ..
Well when do you think the colors might start to change, im in Central Maryland.
Quoting islander101010:
98 trying
Yes, looking better, even if it didn't receive any recognition by the NHC in their 8:00pm update...
Quoting 153. Climate175:
Well when do you think the colors might start to change, im in Central Maryland.


look it up on the web ..
LOL people thinking 98L will become something. ITS OVER GUYS, I told you reasons back in late july why this season would not be active. LOOKS like I and tampaspin are right.
Quoting 157. SuperStorm093:
LOL people thinking 98L will become something. ITS OVER GUYS, I told you reasons back in late july why this season would not be active. LOOKS like I and tampaspin are right.
Your a good predictor man
Quoting 148. Climate175:
What temps do you need for fall colors to show? And i am so confused on what is going on with the trees, my big tree in my back yard is still green but the days are getting shorter every day and still no color change? Does it need to be in the low 50s ? Somebody please answer.


Here is a good website for a indicator of fall arriving..

US Forest Service..there is a map where you can click on your state..
94E definitely looks like a tropical depression.

Quoting 157. SuperStorm093:
LOL people thinking 98L will become something. ITS OVER GUYS, I told you reasons back in late july why this season would not be active. LOOKS like I and tampaspin are right.


Looks like you've won the the "Weather Underground Self Congratulatory Amateur Forecaster of the Season Award". Way to go man, you were clearly miles ahead of the rest with all those pats on the back you give yourself.

Quoting 160. Halcyon19:
94E definitely looks like a tropical depression.



Agree. I also just took not of that feature SE of 94E. How strong do you guy think 94E may get?
Quoting 157. SuperStorm093:
LOL people thinking 98L will become something. ITS OVER GUYS, I told you reasons back in late july why this season would not be active. LOOKS like I and tampaspin are right.




give it a rest all ready you troll
Quoting 161. Naga5000:


Looks like you've won the the "Weather Underground Self Congratulatory Amateur Forecaster of the Season Award". Way to go man, you were clearly miles ahead of the rest with all those pats on the back you give yourself.




hes nothing but a troll dont feed him plzs
Quoting 164. Tazmanian:



hes nothing but a troll dont feed him plzs


You missed the sarcasm ;)
NAM is showing a spin down in the SW Caribbean. MJO is also on the way.

Rain still falling hard over India as Phailin continues to move slowly off towards the NW.

168. DFWjc
Quoting 125. Astrometeor:
Woah, rain in Texas? Nice.



Yup, we had about 30 mins of the light stuff here in North Texas (we in North Richland Hills that is)...Trying to find out where that tornado sighting was tho...
Whew....

I measured over seven inches of rain here on Provo from Thursday to this morning from that "whatever" system which dumped on us. Lots of lightning!

I was without Internet and landline for two days... (really sucks when you can't even see a satellite image and the rain just keeps coming).

So, today I finally bought a cellphone and a "Mifi" mobile Hotspot to get back online.
Here comes Wipha.

I'm sure that Cable and Wireless won't fix my landline before Tuesday at the earliest, since Monday is a holiday.

So my current learning curve includes the iPhone and mobile hotspot.
Quoting 167. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Rain still falling hard over India as Phailin continues to move slowly off towards the NW.


how many deaths do you think?
Quoting 159. ncstorm:


Here is a good website for a indicator of fall arriving..

US Forest Service..there is a map where you can click on your state..


That's a great find! With so many federal govt sites shut down I'm surprised that one is still up.
Quoting 174. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Jeez!



Ouch
Quoting 172. nwobilderburg:

how many deaths do you think?
We might not know for days, weeks, maybe months? Remember that well after the storm has past there is usually standing water that is left behind and in that water breeds malaria.


That is hurricane force wind right next to Fukushima
Quoting 171. CaicosRetiredSailor:
I'm sure that Cable and Wireless won't fix my landline before Tuesday at the earliest, since Monday is a holiday.

So my current learning curve includes the iPhone and mobile hotspot.
You have an iPhone before me, so you're way ahead of me. I have a blackberry curve and I feel like I am wayyy behind everyone. :P
Quoting 174. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Jeez!


Yikes.
AL, 98, 2013101300, , BEST, 0, 118N, 439W, 30, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
181. DFWjc
Landspout in Denton County, Texas...



Link
I vote to retire the GEM model by the end of this year, who is with me? :P

Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
I vote to retire the GEM model by the end of this year, who is with me? :P



me.
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep942013_ep152013.ren
FSTDA
R
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040
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0000
201310130049
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
185. JRRP
186. JRRP
Quoting 184. Civicane49:
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep942013_ep152013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
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0000
201310130049
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP


Cool. Excited to see NHC cone.
EP, 15, 2013101300, , BEST, 0, 157N, 1098W, 30, 1005, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 150, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FIFTEEN, M,
Quoting 188. Civicane49:
EP, 15, 2013101300, , BEST, 0, 157N, 1098W, 30, 1005, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 150, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FIFTEEN, M,

Should become a minimal tropical storm and degenerate before impacting Baja California Sur. Gusty winds and some rain appears likely there.
Quoting 178. GTstormChaserCaleb:
You have an iPhone before me, so you're way ahead of me. I have a blackberry curve and I feel like I am wayyy behind everyone. :P


I've never had an 'i' anything...am a rebel :p I have a Samsung that has android, have a few apps, google skymap and the photographers ephemeris, think that's it LOL

I don't have home internet or phone these days. best thing about not having a landline and just mobile dongles for internet on the computers..doesn't matter if electric or phone goes out....though do have to worry about a big solar storm sometime I suppose!

Glad you're dealing well and learning something new out of it CRS! ;p


from whitewabbit's post...I have a hard time believing temps have nothing to do with leaves turning. Last year, leaves were well into fall colors at the start of Sept, and was a very cool summer. This year, has been very warm and aside from a few days recently, still mild...and the leaves are just now starting to turn. unless more cloudy days made them turn so much earlier?
191. JRRP

Cariboy ?
Quoting 190. mitthbevnuruodo:


I've never had an 'i' anything...am a rebel :p I have a Samsung that has android, have a few apps, google skymap and the photographers ephemeris, think that's it LOL

I don't have home internet or phone these days. best thing about not having a landline and just mobile dongles for internet on the computers..doesn't matter if electric or phone goes out....though do have to worry about a big solar storm sometime I suppose!

Glad you're dealing well and learning something new out of it CRS! ;p


from whitewabbit's post...I have a hard time believing temps have nothing to do with leaves turning. Last year, leaves were well into fall colors at the start of Sept, and was a very cool summer. This year, has been very warm and aside from a few days recently, still mild...and the leaves are just now starting to turn. unless more cloudy days made them turn so much earlier?


Leaves are nature's food factories. Plants take water from the ground through their roots. They take a gas called carbon dioxide from the air. Plants use sunlight to turn water and carbon dioxide into oxygen and glucose. Oxygen is a gas in the air that we need to breathe. Glucose is a kind of sugar. Plants use glucose as food for energy and as a building block for growing. The way plants turn water and carbon dioxide into oxygen and sugar is called photosynthesis. That means "putting together with light." A chemical called chlorophyll helps make photosynthesis happen. Chlorophyll is what gives plants their green color.

As summer ends and autumn comes, the days get shorter and shorter. This is how the trees "know" to begin getting ready for winter.

During winter, there is not enough light or water for photosynthesis. The trees will rest, and live off the food they stored during the summer. They begin to shut down their food-making factories. The green chlorophyll disappears from the leaves. As the bright green fades away, we begin to see yellow and orange colors. Small amounts of these colors have been in the leaves all along. We just can't see them in the summer, because they are covered up by the green chlorophyll.
The sun did come out today but it came out when it was starting to set.How ironic..The rain is back yet again and heavy.

BTW my R.R sport has been doing well in this weather.It rides really smooth just as if it were dry road and not wet.
BEGIN
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invest_ep952013.invest
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NOTIFY=ATRP
END

Quoting 178. GTstormChaserCaleb:
You have an iPhone before me, so you're way ahead of me. I have a blackberry curve and I feel like I am wayyy behind everyone. :P


This is my first ever cellphone... I've had the iPad since the very first day it was introduced, I was confident that it was introducing a new way of doing things...

Then again, I had one of the original 128k, one floppy drive Macintosh computers. It was delivered to me in the Exuma Land and Sea Park, (that is REMOTE! for those who don't know) new in 1984... all powered by a wind generator.

I was the Park Warden at the time, living on my 40 ft. Houseboat.

40 posts in 75 minutes, too funny.
Quoting 192. whitewabit:


Leaves are nature's food factories. Plants take water from the ground through their roots. They take a gas called carbon dioxide from the air. Plants use sunlight to turn water and carbon dioxide into oxygen and glucose. Oxygen is a gas in the air that we need to breathe. Glucose is a kind of sugar. Plants use glucose as food for energy and as a building block for growing. The way plants turn water and carbon dioxide into oxygen and sugar is called photosynthesis. That means "putting together with light." A chemical called chlorophyll helps make photosynthesis happen. Chlorophyll is what gives plants their green color.

As summer ends and autumn comes, the days get shorter and shorter. This is how the trees "know" to begin getting ready for winter.

During winter, there is not enough light or water for photosynthesis. The trees will rest, and live off the food they stored during the summer. They begin to shut down their food-making factories. The green chlorophyll disappears from the leaves. As the bright green fades away, we begin to see yellow and orange colors. Small amounts of these colors have been in the leaves all along. We just can't see them in the summer, because they are covered up by the green chlorophyll.


So, too cloudy of summers, over cool summers, when the leaves turn early. We have been much more sunny than norm until lately, back to average lately.But way sunny July/Aug/Sept for us



And thanks for the reply about it :)
The EPac is spitting out a few more storms before closing down, I see!
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #36
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM PHAILIN (BOB04-2013)
2:30 AM IST October 13 2013
======================================

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Over Odisha

At 21:00 PM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Phailin over south coastal Odisha moved north northwestwards during past 3 hours at about 10 knots and now lays center near 20.0N 84.5E, about 90 km northwest of Gopalpur over Odisha.

The system would move in north-northwestwards and weaken gradually.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is estimated to be 85-90 knots with gusts of 105 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
9 HRS: 21.5N 83.5E - Deep Depression
21 HRS: 23.5N 82.5E - Depression

Post landfall outlook:

System would weaken gradually into a cyclonic storm while moving north northwestwards across interior Odisha. Under its influence rainfall at most places with heavy falls at a few places and extremely heavy falls at isolated places would occur over Odisha. Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would also occur over north coastal Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand.
Quoting 197. mitthbevnuruodo:


So, too cloudy of summers, over cool summers, when the leaves turn early. We have been much more sunny than norm until lately, back to average lately.But way sunny July/Aug/Sept for us



And thanks for the reply about it :)


Your welcome ..

Leave's in my area aren't changing but just starting to turn yellow and are falling from the trees .. I am in a severe drought area again .. only 2.6 inches of rain since the 26th of July .. and wonder if we will have any color at all because of the drought ..


While you were playing in the hot sun during summer vacation the trees on the streets, in the parks, and in the forests were working hard to keep you cool. To feed the shiny green leaves that make shade, trees use sunlight to convert water and carbon dioxide into sugar. This is called photosynthesis.

Now it's autumn, and you're ready -- okay, almost ready -- to be back in school. Those hardworking trees, on the other hand, need to take a break from all that photosynthesizing. When leaves change color from green to yellow, bright orange, or red, you'll know that trees are beginning their long winter's rest.

Leaf color comes from pigments. Pigments are natural substances produced by leaf cells. The three pigments that color leaves are:

chlorophyll (green)
carotenoid (yellow, orange, and brown)
anthocyanin (red)

more here: http://dnr.wi.gov/eek/veg/trees/treestruecolor.ht m
More than 500 MET department officials work night and day to analyse data and alert administration

Sunday, Oct 13, 2013, 6:40 IST | Agency: DNA
Mayank Aggarwal  
  

IMD control room, New Delhi:  While the world was glued to news channels to see the heavy damage that cyclone Phailin inflicts, more than 500 officials of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) would be slogging out whole night long and thereafter as well for continuously analysing data and issuing forecasts to help others involved in decision making and relief work.

On Saturday evening, when dna visited the control room set up at the IMD headquarters in New Delhi for Cyclone Phailin, it was abuzz with scientists who were analysing data being relayed to them from a string of their observatories across the eastern coast of India —  primarily from Odisha and northern Andhra Pradesh.

Not just that, the IMD officials were constantly relaying information to agencies like the National Disaster Management Authority as well as the top centres like the union home ministry.  Regular queries of media teams stationed at the place throughout the day were just adding to their work......
Large curved band in the western semicircle is wrapping around the center of 15E nicely. Upper-level outflow pattern is well-defined to the west and north. Expect additional organization for the next 24-36 hours before weakening and later degenerating off the western coast of Baja California.

Quoting 181. DFWjc:
Landspout in Denton County, Texas...



Link
I thought landspouts are tornadoes?
Are right guys going back to AndreBrooks as my handle,since the Atlantic has became dead.I know the East Pacific is alive,but we need some action in the Atlantic soon before we end an active era.
So, how many inches of snow do you think the south will get this year.I say around 6-12 inches.
Quoting 191. JRRP:

Cariboy ?


I really hope for some torrential rains !!!
pathetic convection over the lesser antilles.. while october should bring WAY MORE!!!
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 12 2013

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 110.2W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 12 2013

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS
DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED STRONG
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THUS...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
30 KT FROM SAB AND 45 KT FROM TAFB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
AT 30 KT...AND THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/10. THE DEPRESSION
IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AN
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
FORECAST THAT A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES...ALONG WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
NEAR 21N 124W...SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD AND START TO RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL SHEAR APART
AFTER 36-48 HOURS...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MOVING VERY SLOWLY
NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS
THIS SCENARIO...SHOWING A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 24 HOURS...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH A DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. THE FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ALLOW CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...
THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS SHOULD CAUSE
WEAKENING...WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW
AFTER 72 HOURS. THE FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD
STRENGTHEN MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST BEFORE REACHING COLDER
WATER.

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY DO NOT REQUIRE ANY TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE CYCLONE GETS STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 16.1N 110.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 17.4N 111.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 19.4N 112.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 21.1N 113.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 22.4N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 24.5N 112.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 25.5N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/0000Z 26.0N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
213. vis0
CREDIT: erau.edu  SUBJECT: 2013 Tropical Cyclone Phailin  PERIOD:
201310-11'2130_-13'0000  IMG TYPE: water vapor (lighter vapor removed)
Hosted by vidmeup  If VID sticks click play bar.
Cyclone Phailin Phailin wreaks havoc in Odisha; communication, power lines devastated

Sunday, October 13, 2013

Report by Odisha Diary bureau, Bhubaneswar: Cyclone Phailin has hit communication lines and power supply in Odisha. After making landfall near Gopalpur and causing very heavy rain along the coast and in most parts of Odisha, Phailin moved north-northwestwards and is weakening gradually. 

Currently, the system is situated 200km inside Odisha near Sambalpur with wind speed of 80-90 km per hour. It has been downgraded to a "cyclonic storm" now.

The cyclone caused extensive damage to thatched houses and old buildings. Largescale disruption of power and communication lines, disruption of rail and road traffic. Heavy to very heavy rainfall were also widespread in the districts of Gajapati, Khurda, Puri, Jagatsinghpur, Nayagarh, Cuttack, Bhadrak and Kendrapara in coastal region besides state capital Bhubaneshwar. 
Bhubaneswar, Berhampur, Paradeep, Puri, Gopalpur, Cuttack, Jagatsinghpur and other cities remained in darkness as power lines were switched off due to this storm.

At least 600 buildings have been identified as shelters and people are being evacuated from areas near the coast, including Ganjam, Puri, Khordha and Jagatsinghapur districts in Odisha.

But only when Phailin’s severity comes down – after 12 hours from the time of landfall – will rescuers from the Indian Navy and the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) venture out from their safe shelters.

- See more at: http://www.orissadiary.com/CurrentNews.asp?id=448 36#sthash.lgc7ukjx.dpuf
Quoting 192. whitewabit:


... During winter, there is not enough light or water for photosynthesis. The trees will rest, and live off the food they stored during the summer. They begin to shut down their food-making factories. The green chlorophyll disappears from the leaves. As the bright green fades away, we begin to see yellow and orange colors. Small amounts of these colors have been in the leaves all along. We just can't see them in the summer, because they are covered up by the green chlorophyll.

Good grief! Thought the idea that the green chlorophyll "hides" the brighter-colored leaf pigments had been laid to rest years ago. Green plus red equals brown. If there were as much red in a typical sugar maple leaf during the summer as there is in the fall, then the entire canopy of the tree would be a very dull brown!

Try this [ emphasis added ]:
"... But in the fall, because of changes in the length of daylight and changes in temperature, the leaves stop their food-making process. The chlorophyll breaks down, the green color disappears, and the yellow to orange colors become visible and give the leaves part of their fall splendor.

At the same time other chemical changes may occur, which form additional colors through the development of red anthocyanin pigments. Some mixtures give rise to the reddish and purplish fall colors of trees such as dogwoods and sumacs, while others give the sugar maple its brilliant orange. ...

Temperature, light, and water supply have an influence on the degree and the duration of fall color. Low temperatures above freezing will favor anthocyanin formation producing bright reds in maples. However, early frost will weaken the brilliant red color. Rainy and/or overcast days tend to increase the intensity of fall colors. ..."

So it's a combination of changes: the loss of the green chlorophyll, which reveals the existing carotenes and xanthophyll pigments, and the creation de novo of anthocyanin pigments, which is driven by the waning sugar production.
Typhoon Wiphia may track very close to the Fuckushima nuclear plant.

Quoting 201. 47n91w:
... more here: http://dnr.wi.gov/eek/veg/trees/treestruecolor.ht m

This reference also has the correct explanation. Here's the relevant part:
"... Perhaps you've noticed that in some years, the red fall colors seem brighter and more spectacular than in other years. The temperature and cloud cover can make a big difference in a tree's red colors from year to year.

When a number of warm, sunny autumn days and cool but not freezing nights come one after the other, it's going to be a good year for reds. In the daytime, the leaves can produce lots of sugar, but the cool night temperatures prevent the sugar sap from flowing through the leaf veins and down into the branches and trunk. Anthocyanins to the rescue! Researchers have found out that anthocyanins are produced as a form of protection. They allow the plant to recover nutrients in the leaves before they fall off. This helps make sure that the tree will be ready for the next growing season. Anthocyanins give leaves their bright, brilliant shades of red, purple and crimson.

The yellow, gold and orange colors created by carotenoid remain fairly constant from year to year. That's because carotenoids are always present in leaves and the amount does not change in response to weather. ..."
7.50 am: Restoring roads for rescue vehicles first priority, says Odisha DGP Cyclone

Phailin‘s worst is over, according to thr officials of both Andhra Pradesh and Odisha. Speaking to CNN-IBN, Prakash Mishra, DGP of Odisha said, “Gopalpur in Ganjam district has been the worst hit in Odisha. But no casualties have been reported.” He also said, “The first priority would be to clear the roads so that the rescue vehicles can come in. Then we will be restoring the power lines and the water supply.”

However, there is still no trace of the 18-member ship that was stranded at a distance from Paradip port. A rescue ship of Indian Oil Corporation had been sent to rescue the ship but they have not found the ship or established communication with the crew on board, said Odisha DGP.

The Met office in Odisha said that the severe cyclone had passed over Odisha and now it would pass in a north to north-west direction over the Indian mainland away from the coast.

7.00 am: Cyclone Phailin leaves train of devastation The worst of Cyclone Phailin is over, but signs of its passage can be seen thanks to a trail of devastation.

In Gopalpur, Odisha where Phailin made landfall, low lying areas are completely inundated thanks to storm surges that caused flooding as much as half a kilometre away from the coast.

The winds of over 200 kmph had also uprooted trees, telephone and electricity poles, and torn off roofs in the area.  The storm is weakening, and focus is now shifting to rescue operations.

Read more at: http://www.firstpost.com/india/live-restoring-road s-for-rescue-vehicles-first-priority-says-odisha-d gp-1165983.html?utm_source=ref_article
219. JRRP
My blog is always open for winter weather chats.
Link
I just realized just how massive Typhoon Wipha is. The cyclone has a gale-diameter of a whopping 715 miles!

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #37
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM PHAILIN (BOB04-2013)
5:30 AM IST October 13 2013
======================================

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Over Odish

At 0:00 AM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Phailin over Odisha moved northwards during past 3 hours at about 10 knots and now lays near 20.5N 84.5E, close to Phulbani.

The system would move northwards for some more time and weaken gradually into a cyclonic storm by noon of today and into a deep depression by the evening.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is estimated to be about 70-75 knots with gusts of 80 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 22.3N 84.8E - Deep Depression
24 HRS: 24.8N 85.7E - Depression

Damage expected over Odisha:
Extensive damage to kutcha houses. Partial disruption of power and communication lines. Disruption of rail and road traffic. Potential threat from flying debris. Flooding of escape routes. Extensive damage to agricultural crops.

State of Sea:
It will be very high along & off Odisha coast and very rough to high along & off north Andhra Pradesh and very rough along & off West Bengal coast during next 12 hours.

Action suggested:
Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea along north Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal coast during next 24 hours. Judicious regulation of rail and road traffic in vulnerable areas. People in affected areas to remain indoors.
Quoting 221. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I just realized just how massive Typhoon Wipha is. The cyclone has a gale-diameter of a whopping 715 miles!

WOW.
Quoting 163. Tazmanian:




give it a rest all ready you troll
As opposed to ...

Lackohurricaneophobia - the fear that there will be no hurricanes in any given year.
Quoting 221. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I just realized just how massive Typhoon Wipha is. The cyclone has a gale-diameter of a whopping 715 miles!



Somewhat reminds me of Typhoon Tip.
So,I heard last night hurricanes2018,was told that he was stupid by SuperStorm093,we need to decide if we need to remove his account.I have already have ignored him and banned him for 1000 hours.So what do you guys think.
Quoting 224. OracleDeAtlantis:
As opposed to ...

Lackohurricaneophobia - the fear that there will be no hurricanes in any given year.
LOL.
228. JRRP
Quoting 226. Andrebrooks:
So,I heard last night hurricanes2018,was told that he was stupid by SuperStorm093,we need to decide if we need to remove his account.I have already have ignored him and banned him for 1000 hours.So what do you guys think.


If he's repeatedly causing issues then I'd say ban him, but what's to stop him from signing back up with a new account in a day and being right back at it?

I don't like it when people attack others, we're all entitled to an opinion and we all have the right to disagree with others.
Let's not discuss bans in this blog.
Quoting 219. JRRP:


Restrengthening at the end xD
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #16 (FINAL)
TYPHOON SANTI
11:00 AM PhST October 13 2013
================================================= ==

Typhoon "SANTI" is already outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility and is moving farther away from the country and closer towards Vietnam.

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Santi [NARI] (972 hPa) located at 15.2N, 114.3E or 550 km west of Iba, Zambales has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gustiness up to 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Additional Information
==========================
With this development and unless re-entry occurs, this is the final weather bulletin for this weather disturbance.

Meanwhile, as of 10:00 am Typhoon "WIPHA" (International Name) was estimated at 1,400 km east of northern Luzon. It is expected to enter the PAR by Monday morning.
Quoting 151. whitewabit:


temperature has no effect on the color in tree leaves it is the length of the day light hours that cause the change ..


Hey, I don't want to be chump, but while that's a common belief, its actually not true, while shorter days are the biggest factor, temperature is also important:

"Trees use a combination of cues to determine when to drop their leaves, but the two primary signals are the length of daylight, and temperature. Sunlight is the major factor; as trees sense fewer hours of light, they curtail photosynthesis in their leaves. Green chlorophyll fades, and colors emerge. Climate change has no effect on day length, but it does on temperature. If autumn days are warm, trees tend to delay the color change, and if autumn days are cool, they tend to hasten the pace. If global temperatures generally rise, you may need to take that walk a few days later. Indeed, Massachusetts officials have determined that the average peak color change has shifted about three days later over recent decades."


Link
looks like 98L will remain weak and disorganized all the way to the Bahamas where it will probably find less wind shear and strengthen there watch out SE US
see a lot of rebuttals on my statement .. I gave the main reason for the change in leaf color and that is the length of days .. which causes lower temps, which causes less sugar production .. ect .. ect ..

For those interested, I did a short blog update on Fifteen-E. Finally had enough time and motivation to do a blog on the tropics.
Deep convection has been increasing in the spiral band wrapping into the center from the west and the center itself over the past few hours. It's highly likely we have Tropical Storm Octave right now.

Quoting 238. whitewabit:
see a lot of rebuttals on my statement .. I gave the main reason for the change in leaf color and that is the length of days .. which causes lower temps, which causes less sugar production .. ect .. ect ..

The basic reasons... however, there are many more factors like how much sun in the year or how much rain. Fall foliage is little late in Asheville area this year because of heavy rainfall.
Quoting 238. whitewabit:
see a lot of rebuttals on my statement .. I gave the main reason for the change in leaf color and that is the length of days .. which causes lower temps, which causes less sugar production .. ect .. ect ..




No worries, sunlight loss is the main reason, which of course also is responsible for colder temps anyway like you said.

I just figured I'd mention it though, I generally try my best to post to inform, not to 1-up anyone here which is rather childish yet seems fairly common.
98L looking like it's trying to make a comeback
Quoting 240. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Deep convection has been increasing in the spiral band wrapping into the center from the west and the center itself over the past few hours. It's highly likely we have Tropical Storm Octave right now.


Stray 40kt wind barb.
Quoting 243. wunderkidcayman:
98L looking like it's trying to make a comeback
Maybe code orange in ten minutes.
Quoting 245. Andrebrooks:
Maybe code orange in ten minutes.
Eh,Nevermind

000
ABNT20 KNHC 130512
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE IT MOVES
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS DISTURBANCE CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Comeback huh?
Quoting 244. Andrebrooks:

Stray 40kt wind barb.

WindSat is unreliable, I recommend avoiding it.
95E:

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS PRODUCING AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIFTEEN-E. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD.
BHUBANESWAR/SRIKAKULAM, India

-- Cyclone Phailin powered its way inland over eastern India on Sunday leaving a swathe of destruction but the loss of life appeared limited after more than half a million people sought safety in storm shelters.

Phailin was the strongest storm to hit India in 14 years. Torn branches littered a road running past destroyed huts and twisted electricity poles along a large stretch of the east coast.
At least five people were killed - four people by falling trees and one when the walls of her mud house collapsed as the storm roared in off the Bay of Bengal, authorities said.

Television images showed cars flipped on their sides and debris-strewn streets in the silk producing city of Brahmapur, one of the hardest hit. A few trucks and motor-bikes returned to the city's streets as residents emerged to survey the damage.

Large swathes of Odisha, including its capital, were without electricity for a second day after the storm ripped down power cables, and officials said it was too early to give an accurate damage assessment.
"We will assess after the cyclone eases ... even now the cyclone is on," said Odisha's chief secretary J.K Mohapatra.
"There has been pretty severe devastation in Brahmapur town."
Soldiers and rescue workers in helicopters, boats and trucks will fan out across Odisha and neighboring Andhra Pradesh state to review the damage. Storm surges can cause the worst destruction. Phailin was forecast to drive sea levels up 11 feet at its peak.

Operations at Paradip port in Odisha have been halted since Friday. All vessels were ordered to leave the port, which handles coal, crude oil and iron ore. An oil tanker carrying 2 million barrels of oil worth $220 million was moved.

Link
Quoting 241. Bluestorm5:
The basic reasons... however, there are many more factors like how much sun in the year or how much rain. Fall foliage is little late in Asheville area this year because of heavy rainfall.


Or, thanks to this year's heavy rains, the leaves here in Nashville are going from green to brown while on the tree, and some even start to mold over before falling.

Sigh, no leaf pile this year. Too many acorns to make raking even worthwhile. The squirrels are having a field day, however.
This is impressive, the current Dr. Masters blog has been up for around 12 hours, and there are 252 posts above me. 252/12 = 21 posts per hour. Or, put in another way, about a post every 3 minutes. Even winter has more traffic than today.

zzzzzzzzz
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #38
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM PHAILIN (BOB04-2013)
8:30 AM IST October 13 2013
======================================

Severe Cyclonic Storm Over Odisha

At 3:00 AM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Phailin over Odisha moved north northwestwards during past 6 hours at about 10 knots and weakened into a severe cyclonic storm. Phailin lays center near 21.0N 84.0E, about 50 km south of Sampalpur.

The system would move northwestwards and weaken gradually into a cyclonic storm by noon of today and into a deep depression by evening of today.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is estimated at 55-60 knots with gusts of 65 knots.
Quoting 253. Astrometeor:
This is impressive, the current Dr. Masters blog has been up for around 12 hours, and there are 252 posts above me. 252/12 = 21 posts per hour. Or, put in another way, about a post every 3 minutes. Even winter has more traffic than today.

zzzzzzzzz


Never seen the blog this quiet for a long time.
I know very little about trees except they keep dropping leaves I have to rake. Living in SE AL, removes a lot of the variables that occur further north when it come to leaf change. We don't have cold nights, or at least not cold when compared to the rest of the country. Our percent of sunny days changes very little, and I've always believed that not just cool but cloudy days stimulate trees to start changing leaf colors and dropping them. Our day length is is little longer than up north, but I tend to believe that's not a big factor for us. However, the leaves are already beginning to change here (about three weeks ahead of normal), and only two things were abnormal The first was out temperatures were below normal almost all summer, and the second was out rainfall was much above average all summer. I'm just wondering, with the decreased stress on the trees from heat and drought, if they haven't complete their job "early", so to speak, so they are changing colors and dropping leaves to get ready for winter. I clearly have no idea if trees know if a cold winter is ahead, but things like this make me wonder.
Not trying to one-up anyone, either. However, the "green hides the red" explanation is flat-out wrong, and it's a pet peeve of mine that it's still in circulation after all these years. It's bad science, and shouldn't be promulgated on a scientifically-oriented blog like this.

Anyone who has fooled around with mixing paints knows that "green plus red equals brown". Try as you might, there's no way you can hide a bright red using green without creating a muddy brown. Many kids know this from personal experience and will ask why this principle doesn't apply to leaves as well as to paints. If you get the fall-color-change explanation wrong, then you have to argue them out of it somehow. Bad science.

You can also do a simple kitchen table chromatography experiment to extract the various pigments from a green leaf. But if you do that experiment... lo and behold... green and yellow bands, but no red! Some kids will know about (or have done) this experiment and will ask "where's the red?". Or -- worse -- maybe this experiment is being done in a science classroom and some kid will bring up the subject of red leaves in the fall. Again, if you get the fall-color-change explanation wrong, then you have to argue your way out of the missing red band somehow, hopefully without negating either the experiment, or the kid's curiosity. Worse science.

Far better just to get the fall-color-change explanation right in the first place.
Quoting Astrometeor:
This is impressive, the current Dr. Masters blog has been up for around 12 hours, and there are 252 posts above me. 252/12 = 21 posts per hour. Or, put in another way, about a post every 3 minutes. Even winter has more traffic than today.

zzzzzzzzz

Nothing happening in the Atlantic and the big storms in the western Pacific are on shore or their oath is not dangerous. I can guarantee you that things in India are much worse that we've heard, but India is notorious in withholding news, so it will be a few days before we really know what happened. The entire US is typically quiet for Fall, with the usual early winter snow in the upper Midwest. Really, it's not surprising to me that the amount of posts is low. Back in 2006, you would have seen more like more like 5 or 6 posts an hour. Y'all have just been spoiled. :-)
Quoting 257. EstherD:
... Far better just to get the fall-color-change explanation right in the first place.

And it's not like it's hard to find. Googling "fall red leaf color" gets lots of hits with the correct explanation. The link I referenced is #2, and the other rebutter's link is #5.
Good night everyone, good night Wipha:



Tried to get a day-shot earlier, but had to leave just before the sun could get there.
EP, 95, 2013101306, , BEST, 0, 120N, 1162W, 25, 1005, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 180, 100, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 98, 2013101306, , BEST, 0, 120N, 450W, 30, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
13/0600 UTC 16.5N 110.8W T2.5/2.5 15E
Quoting 263. Civicane49:
13/0600 UTC 16.5N 110.8W T2.5/2.5 15E
Should be upgrade Octave in the next couple of minutes by ATCF and by the NHC at 5am.
EP, 15, 2013101306, , BEST, 0, 166N, 1106W, 40, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 40, 0, 40, 1007, 150, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, OCTAVE, M,
I impressed how India (not IMD) handled the cyclone... not that many deaths so far
Quoting 224. OracleDeAtlantis:

Lackohurricaneophobia - the fear that there will be no hurricanes in any given year.
I have all the symptoms ...






Quoting nwobilderburg:
I impressed how India (not IMD) handled the cyclone... not that many deaths so far


Cyclone Phailin pounds India, rescue workers start to assess damage

Quoting 269. AussieStorm:


Cyclone Phailin pounds India, rescue workers start to assess damage



yeah, i was watching a live english-language india newscast... they seemed to think not many had died... but who knows..
What do you think the over/under on deaths is
From Dr. Master's blog:

"This issue could be cleared up if India had its own hurricane hunter aircraft; there have been some high-level discussions about India getting a C-130 aircraft like the U.S. Air Force uses to fly into tropical cyclones and take measurements of the actual winds."

First, there's nothing magic about WC-130 for hurricane hunting. Any long endurance, reliable aircraft, with the space and payload for the crew and sensors, can act as a hurricane hunters. Our first hurricane hunter as a single engine AT-6 single engine trainer. We flew several different versions of the Lockheed Constellation after that, and the original aircraft were all variants of B-29's. None of these aircraft were ideal for hurricane hunting, but we made them work. We now have the WC-130 and the P3-Orion, plus the Gulfstream executive jet.

The Indian Air force flies 6 examples of the C-130J, with 6 more on order. This is a more modern version of the C-130J that the USAF already flies for hurricane hunting. The Indian C-130J's were delivered new in 2009 compared to the WC-130's that we fly, the newest of which was put in service in 1999.

The Indian Navy flies 5 examples of the Ilyushin Il-38, roughly equivalent to our P-3 Orions. In addition, the Indian Navy has already taken delivery of a Boeing P-8 Poseidon, which is a militarized version of 737-800. This is expected to be the US Navy's replacement for the aging Orions. The Indian Navy took delivery of their first P-8 a month before the US Navy, and expects to have a total of 24 in service by 2016.

My point in relating the assets already held by the Indian Air Force and Navy is that they do not lack equipment. This is not a lot of guys flying around in Piper cubs. They are the fourth largest air force in the world and have over 1,400 aircraft in service. They could have had hurricane hunter aircraft in service many years if they had chosen to. The Indian Armed Forces see the biggest threat to India as Pakistan, and all their aircraft purchases and basing is directed to both offensive and defensive attacks on and from Pakistan.

Typhoons come and go, some people die, but Pakistan remains as a nuclear threat to India. Until someone in the government believes it's a good idea to devote a relatively small amount of money, aircraft, crew, and equipment to building a hurricane hunter force, it will never happen. The "high level discussion" the Doctor refers to have been going on for years, and the subject is always the same - "You give us everything for free and we'll do it". The USA has, and rightly so, said they would participate in the cost, but the days of giving things like this away for free are gone. So, there the issue sits. It's up to the Indian people to carry this forward if they don't want to continue dying because their government just doesn't think they're worth the money.
Quoting 271. sar2401:
From Dr. Master's blog:

"This issue could be cleared up if India had its own hurricane hunter aircraft; there have been some high-level discussions about India getting a C-130 aircraft like the U.S. Air Force uses to fly into tropical cyclones and take measurements of the actual winds."

First, there's nothing magic about WC-130 for hurricane hunting. Any long endurance, reliable aircraft, with the space and payload for the crew and sensors, can act as a hurricane hunters. Our first hurricane hunter as a single engine AT-6 single engine trainer. We flew several different versions of the Lockheed Constellation after that, and the original aircraft were all variants of B-29's. None of these aircraft were ideal for hurricane hunting, but we made them work. We now have the WC-130 and the P3-Orion, plus the Gulfstream executive jet.

The Indian Air force flies 6 examples of the C-130J, with 6 more on order. This is a more modern version of the C-130J that the USAF already flies for hurricane hunting. The Indian C-130J's were delivered new in 2009 compared to the WC-130's that we fly, the newest of which was put in service in 1999.

The Indian Navy flies 5 examples of the Ilyushin Il-38, roughly equivalent to our P-3 Orions. In addition, the Indian Navy has already taken delivery of a Boeing P-8 Poseidon, which is a militarized version of 737-800. This is expected to be the US Navy's replacement for the aging Orions. The Indian Navy took delivery of their first P-8 a month before the US Navy, and expects to have a total of 24 in service by 2016.

My point in relating the assets already held by the Indian Air Force and Navy is that they do not lack equipment. This is not a lot of guys flying around in Piper cubs. They are the fourth largest air force in the world and have over 1,400 aircraft in service. They could have had hurricane hunter aircraft in service many years if they had chosen to. The Indian Armed Forces see the biggest threat to India as Pakistan, and all their aircraft purchases and basing is directed to both offensive and defensive attacks on and from Pakistan.

Typhoons come and go, some people die, but Pakistan remains as a nuclear threat to India. Until someone in the government believes it's a good idea to devote a relatively small amount of money, aircraft, crew, and equipment to building a hurricane hunter force, it will never happen. The "high level discussion" the Doctor refers to have been going on for years, and the subject is always the same - "You give us everything for free and we'll do it". The USA has, and rightly so, said they would participate in the cost, but the days of giving things like this away for free are gone. So, there the issue sits. It's up to the Indian people to carry this forward if they don't want to continue dying because their government just doesn't think they're worth the money.
India maintains a formidable air force so they're definitely not short of aircraft.
Quoting nwobilderburg:
I impressed how India (not IMD) handled the cyclone... not that many deaths so far

Wait two days and see if that's still the case. We get accurate figures until the Indian Red Cross gets in there. Anything coming from the government will grossly underestimate the casualty count.
Well it seems things are quiet right now.. going to continue to watch 98 and the SW Caribbean probably the next spot to look in for development
Quoting MoltenIce:
India maintains a formidable air force so they're definitely not short of aircraft.

No, as I said, it's political will and what the Armed Forces want to see happen. To them, dedicated hurricane hunters are a diversion from maritime patrol and submarine hunting, looking for signs of a Pakistani and, secondarily, a Chinese attack. In India's defense, the Pakistanis have maintained a war-like stance against India for the last 40 years. OTOH, the Indian Air Force maintains a 3-1 advantage over Pakistan in aircraft, and more like a 5-1 advantage in combat aircraft. Their nuclear offensive and defensive capabilities far outpace Pakistan. India can divert a small amount of their budget and aircraft o a hurricane hunter force if the Indian people demand it. So far, that hasn't been the case.
Quoting nwobilderburg:


yeah, i was watching a live english-language india newscast... they seemed to think not many had died... but who knows..
What do you think the over/under on deaths is


I have no idea, just need to wait and see. Hopefully not to many though.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM SOUTH OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 111.0W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE HAS STRENGTHENED DURING THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL A BIT
ELONGATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS AROUND 0500 UTC
SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 35 TO 40 KT RANGE...AND ON THAT BASIS
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 40 KT...MAKING THE CYCLONE
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE. THIS INITIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS ALSO IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB.

OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT
AND OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. BEYOND 24
HOURS...THE STORM WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C WATERS AND INTO AN
ATMOSPHERE OF QUITE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND DRIER AIR.
THESE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN...
AND OCTAVE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A FEW DAYS.

THE STORM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 11 KT ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OCTAVE...CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO SLOW
DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT
TIME...THE SHALLOW SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN EVEN FURTHER
WHEN IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT REQUIRE ANY TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED
FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA IF THE CYCLONE GETS STRONGER THAN
PREDICTED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 17.1N 111.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 18.6N 112.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 20.5N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 22.0N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 23.2N 113.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 24.5N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/0600Z 25.5N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
So I had a feeling 98l was going to keep going more west in regards to what the models were saying in earlier runs..so is it possible that 98L COULD be something serious down the road if it gets into the Caribbean???
Hurricane season 2013 is officially over. Shear and dry have ruined this season
Wipha is now a potent system sporting 100 knot winds.

JTWC now has it at 125 knots in the long run.
Good Morning folks!..these next few days the news will be texas rains in the states...
texas will be getting the rains from the coming front AND the rains from the pacific storm wow...
well they surely Need this rain there..............
Dr. Masters, thanks for the update. You stated that cyclones with the same sattelite appearance have different intensities in the different basins. This is not true. Only the pressures are different. The wind speeds are the same. The pressures are lower in the western Pacific because the overall pressure in this basin are lower than the overall pressure in the Atlantic basin. A cyclone with the same sattelite signature can be expected to have the same wind speeds regardless of basin.
Might be some flooding issues here thru 84 hours....
288. IKE

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Hurricane season 2013 is officially over. Shear and dry have ruined this season
If you admit it, it must be over.

11-2-0, plus one TD, rocks on.

Highest wind in a storm in the ATL this season....85 mph. Who would have taken that bet?

Day 135 of the season. 48 days to go.

Why Shutting Down U.S. Antarctic Research Will Have Global Repercussions

BY JEFFREY MARLOW10.11.1310:04 AM

The continued paralysis of the U.S. government is being felt around the world, even at some of the most remote scientific outposts on the planet. As the partial shutdown extends into its second week, the National Science Foundation (NSF) has directed its scientists and its primary logistical contractor – Lockheed Martin – to wind down operations and initiate “caretaker” status.

The abrupt change of course comes at an inopportune time, as the most active portion of the field season – October through February – was just getting underway. The logistical ordeal of transporting people and supplies to Antarctica is an intricately choreographed process, and the departure from the tightly constrained plan will affect an entire season of scientific operations no matter how long the holding pattern lasts.

Simply put, there will be long-term repercussions, even if the political deadlock is solved in the coming days.

Multi-year projects will likely miss a year’s worth of data; for research initiatives like the McMurdo Dry Valley Long Term Ecological Research Network, the increasingly noticeable impacts of climate change make losing the 2013-2014 season particularly upsetting. The NSF also funds dozens of three-year grant projects, many of which depend on annual maintenance or monitoring. By the time scientists return to Antarctica, these experiments could be ruined, and their biological, meteorological, or chemical data lost forever...

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2013/10/why-shu tting-down-u-s-antarctic-research-will-have-global -repercussions/
290. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WHILE THE LOW MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS DISTURBANCE
CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Hurricane season 2013( I will still say so far):

June: 2/0/0

July: 2/0/0

August: 2/0/0

September: 4/2/0

October: 1/0/0

Hurricane season 2013 so far: 11/2/0

Way below my May 1, 2013 prediction: 18/10/4
95E:

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS BECOME POORLY
DEFINED DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WHILE IT
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD.
Quoting 290. IKE:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WHILE THE LOW MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS DISTURBANCE
CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BERG
so much for the 60% chance they said
Good morning. Big Nor'easter on the end of the 0z GFS run:



6z also had a big storm at 300 hours, further west:



I doubt it amounts to anything but we'll see. A few of the 0z CMC ensembles also had a storm off the southern New England coast at 300 hours:

Quoting 285. TampaCat5:
Dr. Masters, thanks for the update. You stated that cyclones with the same sattelite appearance have different intensities in the different basins. This is not true. Only the pressures are different. The wind speeds are the same. The pressures are lower in the western Pacific because the overall pressure in this basin are lower than the overall pressure in the Atlantic basin. A cyclone with the same sattelite signature can be expected to have the same wind speeds regardless of basin.
Source, please?
Looks like Texas is getting too much of a good thing today. I don't think I've ever seen a spike like this on a river gauge before. Maybe it's an error?

Quoting 295. Neapolitan:
Source, please?


Yes, the Dvorak chart shows different pressures for the same T-rating, not different winds. I was unspecific in my post by saying "intensity" (deliberately), which can be refer to pressure or winds. IMD had much lower pressures and winds in their forecasts.

Jeff Masters
Quoting 291. Tornado6042008X:
Hurricane season 2013( I will still say so far):

June: 2/0/0

July: 2/0/0

August: 2/0/0

September: 4/2/0

October: 1/0/0

Hurricane season 2013 so far: 11/2/0

Way below my May 1, 2013 prediction: 18/10/4


Everybody and their mother missed this year. Lot's of post season analysis will take place to figure out exactly what/why conditions changed.
Quoting 296. MAweatherboy1:
Looks like Texas is getting too much of a good thing today. I don't think I've ever seen a spike like this on a river gauge before. Maybe it's an error?

yeah we must remember texas will be getting alot of moisture from 3 different sources..the front..the tropical from the pacific and the moisture being drawn in from the gulf..all coming into the state..already there were flash flood warnings early this morning..alot more coming thru the next 3-4-5 days.
Can't get a better source on tropical weather than
Dr. Masters.
Quoting 275. sar2401:

No, as I said, it's political will and what the Armed Forces want to see happen. To them, dedicated hurricane hunters are a diversion from maritime patrol and submarine hunting, looking for signs of a Pakistani and, secondarily, a Chinese attack. In India's defense, the Pakistanis have maintained a war-like stance against India for the last 40 years. OTOH, the Indian Air Force maintains a 3-1 advantage over Pakistan in aircraft, and more like a 5-1 advantage in combat aircraft. Their nuclear offensive and defensive capabilities far outpace Pakistan. India can divert a small amount of their budget and aircraft o a hurricane hunter force if the Indian people demand it. So far, that hasn't been the case.


You seem to have a good understanding of India, so that last part of your paragraph doesn't make much sense. India's political climate and situation is much more complex than just the people demanding it. It is a very difficult intersection between region, religion, race, caste, and language in a notoriously corrupt and slow system. The people demanding it has little to do with it.

i dont like body count. reminds me of vietnam when i was ateenager. ever watch the movie full metal jacket? the numbers were a way just to satisify their superiors and politicians back home. bogus. same for a death from a hurricane. if a person dies from putting a piece of wood on their house that 1. more like the same person could of died mowing their grass.
the rains from octave will be headed into Texas,hopefully not its energy with it from whats left of it going over land..
12.4N 47.7W 98L
frost and cold already in the northern tier states........Frost Advisory

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
309 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

...AREAS OF FROST IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN IOWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...

IAZ004-005-015-023-024-033>035-044>046-057-058-07 0-131300-
/O.CON.KDMX.FR.Y.0002.131013T0900Z-131013T1300Z/
EMMET-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-
CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-CASS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ESTHERVILLE...ALGONA...EMMETSBURG...
POCAHONTAS...HUMBOLDT...SAC CITY...ROCKWELL CITY...FORT DODGE...
DENISON...CARROLL...JEFFERSON...AUDUBON...GUTHRIE CENTER...
ATLANTIC
309 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

* TEMPERATURE...LOWS FROM 30 TO 35 DEGREES WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF
FROST EARLY THIS MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$
Flash flood warnings in texas thru 7pm..........
Very warm eye feature. Wipha easily approaching category 4 status.

Quoting 297. JeffMasters:


Yes, the Dvorak chart shows different pressures for the same T-rating, not different winds. I was unspecific in my post by saying "intensity" (deliberately), which can be refer to pressure or winds. IMD had much lower pressures and winds in their forecasts.

Jeff Masters
Ah, got you. Thanks for the clarification...
Quoting 308. MiamiHurricanes09:
Very warm eye feature. Wipha easily approaching category 4 status.



12z Best Track rapidly rising to now 115kts.


25W WIPHA 131013 1200 19.8N 136.4E WPAC 115 937
98L...

Quoting 307. LargoFl:
Flash flood warnings in texas thru 7pm..........


Indeed. I'm 45 miles E of San Antonio, and we received 2" of rain in the past 1.45 hours in my town. Fitting to be studying for my synoptic meteorology and statistical climatology midterms while fun weather is going on outside. :)

Looks like its developing into a sweet mesoscale convective system that should provide some wide-scale rain, at least for north central and east central Texas...
Quoting 311. GeoffreyWPB:
98L...



Glad it is still rotating lol
Quoting 288. IKE:

If you admit it, it must be over.

11-2-0, plus one TD, rocks on.

Highest wind in a storm in the ATL this season....85 mph. Who would have taken that bet?

Day 135 of the season. 48 days to go.


I'm over this season. Just end already! No more tropical discussions from me just full frontal weather.
I like our chances of a wet Winter in FL as it appears the sub tropical jet is active this year unlike the last few years.

Quoting 295. Neapolitan:
Source, please?

"(The reason that lower pressures are given to the Northwest Pacific tropical cyclones in comparison to the higher pressures of the Atlantic basin tropical cyclones is because of the difference in the background climatology. The Northwest Pacific basin has a lower background sea level pressure field. Thus to sustain a given pressure gradient and thus the winds, the central pressure must accordingly be smaller in this basin.)"
From http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/H1.html
Also see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dvorak_technique
Hey guys, to be honest, 98L don't look too bad. infact I think this increase of shear may have helped it. before 98L was a large elongated circulation. now as seen on visible it has a much tighter circulation that is not elongated, but there is still is a large rotation around the outer part of the tight circulation and it's elongated as well as NE-SW orientated, but that is just apart of the surface trof that goes through the low.

Now I say 98L will continue to move on this W-WNW movement and enter the Caribbean. infact I did a little bit of research with the models over the past few days (10-13 12Z) and looked at where its location is now and compared that to the models, and believe it or not majority of the models were wrong, they threw 98L WNW-NW. 98L should be near 16N/17N right now if most of the models were correct. now some of the models were correct showing very low riders and they're consistently showing it entering the Caribbean near 14N/15N.
Quoting 315. StormTrackerScott:
I like our chances of a wet Winter in FL as it appears the sub tropical jet is active this year unlike the last few years.


I just wish it will be very much colder for the extreme SE I certainly don't mind the rain but I need them cooler temps
Quoting 315. StormTrackerScott:
I like our chances of a wet Winter in FL as it appears the sub tropical jet is active this year unlike the last few years.



Is that indicative of an El Nino.
Did you know that some of Octave's moisture is going to South Central region of the US.
Quoting 315. StormTrackerScott:
I like our chances of a wet Winter in FL as it appears the sub tropical jet is active this year unlike the last few years.

This is good news for our ski resorts, see you on the slopes!
Quoting 317. wunderkidcayman:
Hey guys, to be honest, 98L don't look too bad. infact I think this increase of shear may have helped it. before 98L was a large elongated circulation. now as seen on visible it has a much tighter circulation that is not elongated, but there is still is a large rotation around the outer part of the tight circulation and it's elongated as well as NE-SW orientated, but that is just apart of the surface trof that goes through the low.

Now I say 98L will continue to move on this W-WNW movement and enter the Caribbean. infact I did a little bit of research with the models over the past few days (10-13 12Z) and looked at where its location is now and compared that to the models, and believe it or not majority of the models were wrong, they threw 98L WNW-NW. 98L should be near 16N/17N right now if most of the models were correct. now some of the models were correct showing very low riders and they're consistently showing it entering the Caribbean near 14N/15N.


I'm looking at the satellite on post #811, that does not look like a tight circulation to me. Looks elongated SW/NE.
Quoting 317. wunderkidcayman:
Hey guys, to be honest, 98L don't look too bad. infact I think this increase of shear may have helped it. before 98L was a large elongated circulation. now as seen on visible it has a much tighter circulation that is not elongated, but there is still is a large rotation around the outer part of the tight circulation and it's elongated as well as NE-SW orientated, but that is just apart of the surface trof that goes through the low.

Now I say 98L will continue to move on this W-WNW movement and enter the Caribbean. infact I did a little bit of research with the models over the past few days (10-13 12Z) and looked at where its location is now and compared that to the models, and believe it or not majority of the models were wrong, they threw 98L WNW-NW. 98L should be near 16N/17N right now if most of the models were correct. now some of the models were correct showing very low riders and they're consistently showing it entering the Caribbean near 14N/15N.
It still has a chance while it is out there! A larger disturbance like 98L usually has a better chance of surviving wind shear, or a more hostile environment. Smaller disturbances or circulations in the same hostile conditions would get ripped apart faster, so we will see.
shear is dropping in the vicinity of 98L.It is also forecast to further abate during the next 24hrs. Early morning sat photos still shows a vigorous spin, with some convection building near the coc. It has has been a strange year and it would not surprise me with 98L getting a little more organize, as it approaches the islands.
Quoting 319. clwstmchasr:


Is that indicative of an El Nino.

Supposedly but if anything it's just gonna be warm neutral maybe going into weak El Niño by late winter going into spring IMO
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #41
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NARI (T1325)
21:00 PM JST October 13 2013
======================================

Northern South China Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Nari (965 hPa) located at 15.4N 112.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 11 knots.

Storm Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
210 NM from the center

Dvorak intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.3N 110.9E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Northern South China Sea
48 HRS: 16.8N 108.7E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Northern South China Sea
72 HRS: 17.0N 106.9E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Overland Vietnam

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #41
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON WIPHA (T1326)
21:00 PM JST October 13 2013
======================================

Sea East Of The Philippines

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Wipha (945 hPa) located at 19.8N 136.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 8 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
450 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
300 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak intensity: T5.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 23.9N 133.5E- 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea South Of Japan
48 HRS: 29.0N 135.5E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea South Of Japan
72 HRS: 39.6N 144.7E - Extratropical Low Near Iwata Prefecture

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #40
CYCLONIC STORM PHAILIN (BOB04-2013)
14:30 PM IST October 13 2013
======================================

Cyclonic Storm Over Odisha

At 9:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Phailin over Odisha moved north northwestwards during past 3 hours at about 7 knots and now lay near 21.8N 83.8E, close to southwest of Jharsuguda.

The system would move north northwestwards and weaken gradually into a deep depression during next 6 hours

3 minute sustained winds near the center is estimated at 35-40 knots with gusts of 45 knots.
98L still trying to hold on.I'm surprised it hasn't been shredded yet.
Quoting 324. clwstmchasr:


I'm looking at the satellite on post #811, that does not look like a tight circulation to me. Looks elongated SW/NE.

That's because your looking at the whole picture you need to focus on a tight small rounded circulation inside the the large elongated SW-NE orientated rotation
Oh also that tight circulation is mostly under some new convection that just build on top
I say that LLC is located near 12.5N 48.4W
also watching an area of disturbed weather SE of 98L good 850mb vorticity


98L is that you??
Quoting Civicane49:


Never seen the blog this quiet for a long time.
Majority of the Bloggers are from Florida, and there's nothing threatening ,...what happened in India or any where else only brings interest to a few, that's the truth...
Quoting 312. NewBerlinTX:


Indeed. I'm 45 miles E of San Antonio, and we received 2" of rain in the past 1.45 hours in my town. Fitting to be studying for my synoptic meteorology and statistical climatology midterms while fun weather is going on outside. :)

Looks like its developing into a sweet mesoscale convective system that should provide some wide-scale rain, at least for north central and east central Texas...
Congratulations on your rain event.At least it is still warm enough to not cause hail, freezing rain, and black ice. There are lots of positives. Put a bucket out and dump it down a cave for later.


Killer Indian cyclone wreaks havoc, 1 million evacuated

REPORT from Agence France-Presse


10/13/2013 11:40 GMT

by Annie BANERJI

BHUBANESWAR, October 13, 2013 (AFP) - Cyclone Phailin left a trail of destruction along India's east coast and at least seven people dead Sunday, after the biggest evacuation in the country's history helped minimise casualties.

As emergency teams began assessing damage from the country's biggest cyclone in 14 years, a massive relief effort went into full swing to distribute food to an estimated one million evacuees, clear roads and help the injured.

Most of the local population spent the night huddled in shelters and public buildings as deafening winds flattened flimsy homes, uprooted trees, and sent glass and asbestos strips flying through the air.

The worst affected area, around the town of Gopalpur in Orissa where the eye of Phailin came ashore packing winds of 200 kilometres an hour (125 miles per hour), was still without power and communications were down.

Roads strewn with fallen trees were at least open, as emergency services rushed to reach people living there.

Raj Kishor Muduli, a delivery driver who lives just outside Orissa's state capital Bhubaneswar, said the whole of his village had spent the night hunkering down in a communal shelter.

"We were all afraid, the whole village was afraid, we didn't know how strong the winds would be," the 43-year-old told AFP in the morning, when the winds had died down and heavy overnight rainfall had ceased.

"Everyone was awake the whole night to see what the size of (the) storm would be and to be on guard."

Pradipta Kumar Mohapatra, Orissa's special relief commissioner, said that seven people were known to have died.

"We can confirm seven deaths in Orissa, mostly due to falling branches from trees," he told AFP in Bhubaneswar.

"Our rescue workers and state officials are working tirelessly to sort things out.

"Electricity and water will be restored everywhere by this evening, except for the district of Ganjam, which has been very badly affected. We are coming up with a separate plan to address the situation in Ganjam."

More than 8,000 people were killed in 1999 when a cyclone hit the same region, devastating crops and livestock. The area took years to recover.

This time round, a massive evacuation operation, which officials said was the biggest in Indian history, appeared to have succeeded in minimising casualties.

"I think we have been successful in minimising the loss of precious lives," Orissa's Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik told reporters in Bhubaneswar.

Some 600,000 people were left homeless after the ferocious storm swept through 14,000 villages mainly in coastal districts, Mohapatra told AFP.

Families, many clutching bags of possessions, or holding their children, returned to what was left of their homes to assess the damage after spending the night in the shelters.

"I lost my house and also a small shaving shop, I lost everything," Janardan, 32, who uses one name, said from inside his tiny dwelling in Gopalpur. The cyclone collapsed the roof, leaving Janardan and his wife to sift through the debris and begin the clean up.

High-sided trucks lying on their sides were witness to the strength of the winds on the main highway south of Gopalpur, which was littered with uprooted trees and other debris.

Despite the damage, there was a general sense of relief that things could have been a lot worse in Orissa and neighbouring Andhra Pradesh.

"We were preparing for a super cyclone, but Phailin did not turn into a super cyclone," spokeswoman for the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Tripti Parule, told AFP.

"The last biggest evacuation in India's recorded history was in Andhra Pradesh in 1990 (when another cyclone struck) -- and this is now much bigger."

Officials in Orissa said 873,000 people moved before the cyclone made landfall on Saturday evening, while at least another 100,000 were evacuated further south in the state of Andhra Pradesh. Residents were also evacuated from coastal regions of West Bengal state.

Weakening wind speeds

The NDMA's vice chairman Marri Shashidhar Reddy said the cyclone was gradually weakening as it moved inland, and officials said winds were slowing to below 90 kilometres an hour.

"Of course, there will be widespread rain all over Orissa and parts of Andhra Pradesh but it may be to the extent of 10-15 centimetres (of rain), slightly lower than what was expected," said Reddy.

Before the storm struck, international weather experts had predicted it would be a "super cyclone", comparable to the 2005 Hurricane Katrina in the United States.

"They have been issuing over-warnings, we have been contradicting them," L.S. Rathore, the director general of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), told a press conference in New Delhi.

Although the worst was over, Rathore said heavy rainfall could be expected to fall in at least five states over the next 24 hours, including in Bihar, where floods five years ago killed dozens.

Some of the deadliest storms in history have formed in the Bay of Bengal, including one in 1970 that killed hundreds of thousands of people in modern-day Bangladesh.

bur-co-tha/st

© 1994-2013 Agence France-Presse
Quoting 332. stoormfury:
also watching an area of disturbed weather SE of 98L good 850mb vorticity

Well duh that because there's a surface low there


98L you can blow now.



OCHA Flash Update Philippines | Typhoon Nari (Santi), 13 October 2013

REPORT from UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs Published on 13 Oct 2013


This is the second OCHA Flash Update on Typhoon Nari (Santi), which is being sent on behalf of Mr. David Carden, Head of Office, OCHA Philippines. The next Flash Update will be issued as soon as more information is available.

The effects of Typhoon Nari (locally named 'Santi') has left at least 13 people dead and thousands displaced in Northern Philippines. The National Disaster Risk Reduction Management Council (NDRRMC) has reported over 200,000 people affected by the typhoon. More than 43,000 people (or 9000 families) are displaced, some living with host families and others in evacuation centres. More than 16,500 homes have been damaged.

Nari pummeled Central Luzon early Saturday morning, ripping roofs off buildings and leaving more than two million people without electricity. As of Sunday, many areas were still without power. Bulacan province suffered extensive damage from flooding, with several villages still submerged and rice and vegetable farms damaged or destroyed. The local government of Nueva Ecija province also reported damage to several hectares of rice farms.

Over 3,000 people were stranded at several seaports in the country, the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) reported. Sea travel remains risky over the seaboards of Northern Luzon, western seaboard of Central Luzon, western and southern seaboards of Southern Luzon and over the western seaboard of Western Visayas.

Authorities are conducting rescue and relief operations in the affected areas. Teams from local governments are working to restore electricity and clear debris from roads. However, access to some of the areas is difficult as most roads are either blocked or damaged. So far, the Government has provided over PHP 600,000 worth of relief to some of the worst affected families. As of 13 October, there has been no request for international assistance by the Government. The United Nations and it's humanitarian partners stand ready to support the Government's ongoing efforts to help the affected people.

After sweeping across the country, Nari blew out to the South China Sea with peak winds of 120 kilometers per hour, the state weather service reported. Projections from the Hong Kong Observatory suggest the storm gathering pace over the coming days as it heads towards the northeast coast of Vietnam. Meanwhile, authorities say they are monitoring a second storm 'Wipha' which is still at the Pacific Ocean and may enter the Philippines on Monday morning.

For further information, please contact:

David Carden, Head of Office, OCHA Philippines, carden@un.org, Tel: +63 2 901 0265, Mobile: +63 917 513 9924 Prerna Suri, Public Information Officer, OCHA Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific, surip@un.org, Tel: +66 2288 2856, Mobile: +66 9 2261 8523

UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs:
To learn more about OCHA's activities, please visit http://unocha.org/.
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 68 degrees, dew point of 68, wind chill of 67 and 100% humidity. We had some really nice rain last evening and the possibility of more. I have a BBQ today, so hope the rain skips the cooking timeframe. The burn ban has been lifted, which has many of my neighbors happy. I expect I'll see a lot of smoke in the air today. The neighbors down in the field found a gator in their pond. I'm surprised it took so long to get them back. With their horses and mini horses, they're looking at having them taken out.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: beignets smothered in powdered sugar, banana or corn fritters, Pain perdu (French toast) also smothered in powdered sugar, smoked sausage, broiled boudin patties, frittatas with spinach, bacon and cheddar, Eggs Sardou, toast or bagels with creole cream cheese, cheesy grits with shrimp, grillades and grits, crawfish, cheese and mushroom omelets, scrambled eggs with crawfish Étouffée to pour over it, big fluffy biscuits with sausage gravy, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Creole coffee. Enjoy!
Quoting 334. HuracanTaino:
Majority of the Bloggers are from Florida, and there's nothing threatening ,...what happened in India or any where else only brings interest to a few, that's the truth...
Those discussions are on the Hindi blog. Phailin was quite predictable, and Mr. Masters almost nailed every outcome, leaving us with little to talk about.
Awesome!
Quoting 314. StormTrackerScott:


I'm over this season. Just end already! No more tropical discussions from me just full frontal weather.


hmmm, "full frontal" may be a violation of the community standards . . ;)
Quoting 342. Ameister12:
Awesome!

Just imagine if this was in Atlantic basin the west one in the Caribbean and the east one in the Atlantic
Quoting 343. daddyjames:


hmmm, "full frontal" may be a violation of the community standards . . ;)
as long as there is no visual we are ok
Quoting 343. daddyjames:


hmmm, "full frontal" may be a violation of the community standards . . ;)

Lol I think that that kinda thinking that your implying that he is thinking is just plain dirty and that yeah that may be a violation of the community standards
Quoting 343. daddyjames:


hmmm, "full frontal" may be a violation of the community standards . . ;)


Quoting 346. wunderkidcayman:

Lol I think that that kinda thinking that your implying that he is thinking is just plain dirty and that yeah that may be a violation of the community standards


Sorry I just had to do it

Quoting 345. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
as long as there is no visual we are ok

Ok well then were just fine then
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
832 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH
TONIGHT...

.MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
OCTAVE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL
INTERACT WITH A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT MAY PERSIST INTO MONDAY
AS WELL. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 6 INCHES.

TXZ054-064>066-071>073-076>078-127-139-140-154-15 5-168>170-132100-
/O.NEW.KSJT.FF.A.0003.131013T1332Z-131014T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-
SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-TAYLOR-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH- SAN SABA-MENARD-
KIMBLE-MASON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SWEETWATER...STERLING CITY...
ROBERT LEE...BRONTE...BALLINGER...WINTERS...MERTZON...
SAN ANGELO...EDEN...OZONA...ELDORADO...SONORA...ABILEN E...
COLEMAN...BROWNWOOD...BRADY...SAN SABA...MENARD...JUNCTION...
MASON
832 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...BROWN...COKE...COLEMAN...
CONCHO...CROCKETT...IRION...KIMBLE...MASON...MCCUL LOCH...
MENARD...NOLAN...RUNNELS...SAN SABA...SCHLEICHER...STERLING...
SUTTON...TAYLOR AND TOM GREEN.

* THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

* WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES.

* URBAN STREET FLOODING WILL BE PRIMARY CONCERN DUE TO POOR
DRAINAGE AND EXTREME RUNOFF. NORMALLY DRY CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
CATCH EXCESS RUNOFF AND MAY FLOOD LOW LYING ROADWAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

JOHNSON


Quoting 345. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
as long as there is no visual we are ok

By the way Keeps nice avatar you have I like it
Quoting 345. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
as long as there is no visual we are ok


so no more posting of naked swirls? ;)
Anyway guys I'm out till later
Quoting 308. MiamiHurricanes09:
Very warm eye feature. Wipha easily approaching category 4 status.

Yep, JTWC now has it at 115 kts. JMA has the pressure at 945 mb and 80 kts 10-minute sustained winds.
353. JRRP


buoy near 98L
Quoting 350. daddyjames:


so no more posting of naked swirls? ;)

No they have been approved but if them swirls turn into something else then no posting of them
Quoting 353. JRRP:

buoy near 98L

Hmm
with the ground so dry all summer and probably hard packed in area's this could get a bit dangerous in texas going all the way thru wens and possibly even into the weekend depending on octave and the front..heed your local warnings over there this week folks..today is just the beginning.
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152013
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013

ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR AND
AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF OCTAVE. IN ADDITION...THE PRESSURE
AT SOCORRO ISLAND...LOCATED ABOUT 80 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL
STORM...FELL TO AS LOW AS 1001.4 MB AROUND 11Z...WHICH INDICATES
THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE CYCLONE IS BELOW 1000 MB. BASED ON
PRESSURE-WIND RELATIONSHIPS AND A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/12 KT. THE DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE
CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR THE CENTER OF OCTAVE TO BE BETTER
DETERMINED...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A MORE WESTWARD LOCATION. OTHER
THAN THAT...THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK OR REASONING. OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE
AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD ALONG 22N FROM CENTRAL
MEXICO INTO THE EXTREME EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD ON MONDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST ON
TUESDAY. AS OCTAVE WEAKENS...THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME VERTICALLY
SHALLOW AND SLOW DOWN EVEN FURTHER WHEN IT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL TCVE AND THE
FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL FSSE.

ANOTHER BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER COULD RESULT IN SOME
SLIGHT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE IS OVER
RELATIVELY WARM WATER AND IN LOW VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...THE RECENT INGESTION OF COOLER AND DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR IN
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING
FROM OCCURRING FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...OCTAVE
WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...WHICH SHOULD
INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING BY MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KT SHOULD STRIP AWAY ANY
REMAINING CONVECTION...RESULTING IN OCTAVE BECOMING A REMNANT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BEFORE IT REACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
CONSENSUS INTENSITY MODEL ICON.

THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS DO NOT REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF ANY
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 18.3N 112.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 19.9N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 21.7N 113.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 23.3N 113.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 24.3N 113.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 25.1N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/1200Z 26.0N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings


Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.

Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.


FLASH FLOOD WARNING SAN ANGELO TX - KSJT 851 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013
FLASH FLOOD WARNING HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 833 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013
FLASH FLOOD WARNING HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 748 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013
FLASH FLOOD WARNING HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 633 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013
FLASH FLOOD WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 627 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013

Severe Warnings Issued More Than Three Hours Ago

FLASH FLOOD WARNING HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 555 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013
FLASH FLOOD WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 521 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013
FLASH FLOOD WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 459 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013
FLASH FLOOD WARNING HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 445 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013
FLASH FLOOD WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 431 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013
FLASH FLOOD WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 347 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 258 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013
FLASH FLOOD WARNING HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 241 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013
FLASH FLOOD WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 148 AM CDT SUN OCT 13 2013
FLASH FLOOD WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 1150 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SAN ANGELO TX - KSJT 1124 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
FLASH FLOOD WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 926 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 916 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING SAN ANGELO TX - KSJT 848 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING SAN ANGELO TX - KSJT 837 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING SAN ANGELO TX - KSJT 805 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
SVR T-STORM WARNING SAN ANGELO TX - KSJT 552 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
Anyway fa real I'm out till later see y'all later
Austin-San Antonio
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 248 NMI



TXPQ28 KNES 130938
TCSWNP

A. 25W (WIPHA)

B. 13/0832Z

C. 19.6N

D. 136.7E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT OF 6.0 IS BASED ON OW EYE SURROUNDED W AND EMBEDDED IN
B AFTER A PLUS 0.5 ADJUSTMENT IS MADE. MET IS 5.0 AND PT IS 5.5. FT IS
BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ
G' morning from Central OK.

Well, the first pass of the front brought only a little rain throughout OK, and none here. All in all a much more beautiful weekend than originally thought.

The second pass, as the front becomes warm and lifts to the north, promises to have a bit more precip associated with it. A couple of rainy days ahead.

Instability in the comp is on its way to being resolved - I can only hope. Halfway there, and the big test is today.

Rain may be on its way for CaribBoy - from 98L? Which looks as if its chances of developing into anything organized are diminishing.

Have a fantastic day - and if things don't go well with the continued troubleshooting - a few days.

Cheers!


TXPQ27 KNES 130951
TCSWNP

A. 24W (NARI)

B. 13/0832Z

C. 15.5N

D. 113.3E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T4.5/4.5/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU/SSMI

H. REMARKS...DT OF 4.0 IS BASED ON 1.0 W BANDING. MET AND PT ARE 4.5. FT
IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

13/0600Z 15.3N 113.7E AMSU
13/0708Z 15.4N 113.6E SSMI


...RAMIREZ
rain continuing thru friday into the weekend,rain every day..


TXPZ23 KNES 131219
TCSENP

A. 15E (OCTAVE)

B. 13/1200Z

C. 17.4N

D. 111.8W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/18HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION MEASURES 4/10 FOR A DT=2.5. MET IS 1.5 WHILE
PT IS 2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MCCARTHY


98L DEACTIVATE
might be some tornado watches as well.........
full frontal weather just for STS

372. beell
Quoting 366. LargoFl:
rain continuing thru friday into the weekend,rain every day..


I think if you will step through that accumulated precip forecast-frame by frame, you will find that most of the rain will end over Texas after frontal passage on Wednesday.
7-day for the Tampa bay area...and the snow birds are arriving........
Quoting 372. beell:


I think if you will step through that accumulated precip forecast-frame by frame, most of the rain will end over Texas after frontal passage on Wednesday.
your forgetting octave..
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Texas
626 am CDT sun Oct 13 2013

Discussion...

Previous discussion... /issued 400 am CDT sun Oct 13 2013/

Short term (today through monday)...

a surface boundary has drifted south into central Texas while an
upper level shortwave is lifting north and approaching the Rio
Grande. Plumes of moisture from the Pacific and Gulf of Mexico are
spreading over Texas with a nearly tropical airmass and precipitable waters of 1.7
to 2 inches across south central Texas. Expect numerous to
widespread showers and thunderstorms across south central Texas
today. Will mention locally heavy rains and issue a Flash Flood
Watch for areas along and north of U.S. Highway 90 through 7 PM.
The surface boundary lifts back north and moisture levels slightly
decrease resulting in less coverage of showers and thunderstorms
by Monday. Except...along the Rio Grande and over the Edwards
Plateau where another upper level shortwave moves across tonight
resulting in numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms that
may require the watch to be extended. Daytime temperatures will be
a bit cooler due to clouds and rain.

Long term (monday night through saturday)...

models appear to be coming into better agreement for much of the
week. Rain chances decrease Monday night into Tuesday morning as
upper level ridge briefly builds over southern Texas. An upper
level trough moving out into the plains drops a cold front south
with a slow passage across south central Texas late Tuesday into
early Wednesday. Moisture levels increase as additional Pacific
moisture is drawn northeast across Texas from the remnants of
current tropical depression 15-east and are maximized in the frontal
zone with precipitable waters of 1.9 to 2.2 inches. Expect more widespread heavy
rains due to slow movement of front and steering flow parallel to
the front resulting in training of rains. Depending on how much
rain falls until then to saturate the soils...a Flash Flood Watch
may have to be issued for later Tuesday into early Wednesday. Rain
chances will continue later on Wednesday into early Thursday as
another upper level trough moves across the Southern Plains. A
brief period of no rain chances for late Thursday and Thursday
night. Then slight chances of rain develop ahead of yet another
upper level trough. Above average temperatures early in the week
turn below average middle to late week due to clouds...rain and cold
advection.

&&
02B nothing but a memory


Quoting 368. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


98L DEACTIVATE

You should not deactivate unless ATCF deactivate

Quoting 373. LargoFl:
7-day for the Tampa bay area...and the snow birds are arriving........

I kinda wish that soon it could be actual snow for Florida ;)
379. beell
Quoting 374. LargoFl:
your forgetting octave..


We'll see! Thanks for all the TX weather posts over the last couple days.
Quoting 377. wunderkidcayman:

You should not deactivate unless ATCF deactivate


I kinda wish that soon it could be actual snow for Florida ;)
it will be deactivated today percents are down to 10 percent it will be 0 at 2
Quoting 379. beell:


We'll see! Thanks for all the TX weather posts over the last couple days.
you folks sure need the rains..good luck.
there is the front tuesday..wonder if it will make it to florida..still a bit early for any real cool down for us..
389. beell
Quoting 381. LargoFl:
you folks sure need the rains..good luck.


Compared to 2011 we are in pretty good shape. Many different ways to define drought but the continuing problem with reservoir levels in the western half of the state is the most obvious.


Texas Water Development Board



A God Blessed Sunday morning to you all. Weather is very calm and clear here in Daytona Beach, a little cooler and less humid in the morning, a nice change of the season and a touch of fall.
GFS is,,forcasting a nor'easter around the 24th..
I have picked up almost 6 inches of rain here at my house.This should put a lid on the drought.In terms of rain October has lived up to it's reputation.
GFS doesnt have anything tropical coming our way thru the 29th........
Quoting 392. washingtonian115:
I have picked up almost 6 inches of rain here at my house.This should put a lid on the drought.In terms of rain October has lived up to it's reputation.
See you can bust out of a drought without the support of a tropical system.
98L is far from dead, its taking a beating from shear, but appears to have a talent for survival, I wouldn't declare it dead just yet!
GFS is showing a rather strong blast of cold air hitting the SE United States by the end of the month, we'll see.
Quoting 393. LargoFl:
GFS doesnt have anything tropical coming our way thru the 29th........
Good keep it that way. We don't need no hurricane here with the government in disarray as it is.
Quoting 393. LargoFl:
GFS doesnt have anything tropical coming our way thru the 29th........
its likely over largo with a chance of a rogue system too spin up from now till end of nov that's about it
Quoting 398. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its likely over largo with a chance of a rogue system too spin up from now till end of nov that's about it
yes i think your right keeper..
Quoting 394. GTstormChaserCaleb:
See you can bust out of a drought without the support of a tropical system.


The Washington area or for that matter the east coast hasn't been in drought conditions ..
any chance 98 becomes that weak nor'easter in a week or so?....
Quoting 396. CybrTeddy:
GFS is showing a rather strong blast of cold air hitting the SE United States by the end of the month, we'll see.
I think the Mid-Atlantic on upward will see effects from the cold blast, especially if a storm system rides up the coast. Skeptical about that cold blast making it all the way through FL. Will probably end up seeing temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s for highs and upper 50s to lower 60s for lows by the end of the month.
Quoting 396. CybrTeddy:
GFS is showing a rather strong blast of cold air hitting the SE United States by the end of the month, we'll see.


850mb shows quite the blast of cold but it appears not to get all the way to fla more like ga north

Quoting 404. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


850mb shows quite the blast of cold but it appears not to get all the way to fla more like ga north



I always remember the weather being nice and warm on Holloween down in my area (Ft. Myers).

I was curious so I checked the history for Ft. Myers on October 31. Average high is 84 for the date.


Mean Temperature
75 F

Max Temperature
84 F

Min Temperature
65 F

Record Low
49 F (1953)

Record High
91 F (1992)


Quoting 404. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


850mb shows quite the blast of cold but it appears not to get all the way to fla more like ga north


Nari



Wipha will track very close to Tokyo .. any track movement to the west would be unwelcomed by Japan ..

Quoting stormpetrol:
98L is far from dead, its taking a beating from shear, but appears to have a talent for survival, I wouldn't declare it dead just yet!
Very persistent little bug, if it gets a tiny chance from that shear to lift a little, it could give a surprise. Anyway,interesting to watch....
Regardless of whether the center of Wipha stays offshore, eastern Japan will likely see significant impacts due to the storm's massive size.

412. ackee
The CSU forecast an active October and November for the Caribbean given what we have seen so far this season what the chance that you guys think we see this forecast happening ?

A MEDIUM
B lOW
c Very Low
D The seasons is probably over


How WOULD you guys rate the major forecasting agent on there early seasons PREDICTION of the 2013 seasons ?

A Good
B medium
C below average
D POOR
E VERY poor

413. VR46L
Quoting 412. ackee:
The CSU forecast an active October and November for the Caribbean given what we have seen so far this season what the chance that you guys think we see this forecast happening ?

A MEDIUM
B lOW
c Very Low
D The seasons is probably over


How WOULD you guys rate the major forecasting agent on there early seasons PREDICTION of the 2013 seasons ?

A Good
B medium
C below average
D POOR
E VERY poor



D and E

LOL

Bust Season in the Atlantic ....
Thanks to Phailin, North Indian Ocean ACE is now 286% (22.89/8) of normal. For contrast, the Atlantic is currently 32% (28.02/88) of normal.
Quoting 412. ackee:
The CSU forecast an active October and November for the Caribbean given what we have seen so far this season what the chance that you guys think we see this forecast happening ?

A MEDIUM
B lOW
c Very Low
D The seasons is probably over


How WOULD you guys rate the major forecasting agent on there early seasons PREDICTION of the 2013 seasons ?

A Good
B medium
C below average
D POOR
E VERY poor



C and C.

It has been a pretty boring year in the Atlantic.There were no major hurricanes to track in the Atlantic.Although I am happy that there was not much of disaster cause by tropical cyclones in the Atlantic,with the exception of Mexico.
Quoting 406. CybrTeddy:

Ok help me understand anomaly a little better Cybr, so does this map show the temperatures below normal or the actual air temperature on that day?
Quoting 416. allancalderini:
It has been a pretty boring year in the Atlantic.There were no major hurricanes to track in the Atlantic.Although I am happy that there was not much of disaster cause by tropical cyclones in the Atlantic,with the exception of Mexico.
The season's not over yet.
Quoting 412. ackee:
The CSU forecast an active October and November for the Caribbean given what we have seen so far this season what the chance that you guys think we see this forecast happening ?

A MEDIUM
B lOW
c Very Low
D The seasons is probably over


How WOULD you guys rate the major forecasting agent on there early seasons PREDICTION of the 2013 seasons ?

A Good
B medium
C below average
D POOR
E VERY poor



Trump would say, "Your're fired"!
Quoting 418. GTstormChaserCaleb:
The season's not over yet.
It looks like the way we are going,we might get two more storms thanks to the MJO but I would count them strong by any means.Conditions are not that favorable.
Quoting 420. allancalderini:
It looks like the way we are going,we might get two more storms thanks to the MJO but I would count them strong by any means.Conditions are not that favorable.
I agree with you on both points, Allan. I think a late season Caribbean storm cannot be ruled out, when you get fronts like we have been seeing to push off the East Coast and GOM, you need to watch the tail end of those for any mischief.
Wipha



EPAC still in business.
Quoting 425. PedleyCA:


EPAC still in business.
I'm thinking so long as the EPAC is in business that opens the door for an extended Atlantic Hurricane Season. If this were an actual El-Nino I would believe this season is over, but because it is not, I'm more inclined to lean towards the development of 1-2 storms before the official end of the season.


Click on link then click on any system in the photo

Link
JMO leaving Pac

Quoting 425. PedleyCA:


EPAC still in business.


Hoping some of that moisture flow will be brought up into the central part of the US to give us some much needed rain .. the low developing around the 4 corners may do just that ..

only 2.6 inches of rain since the last week in July tells the story here at my place ..
Quoting 430. LargoFl:


the light green area in Illinois is approximate area I live in .. so .10 is all expected ..
Japan, Tokio and Fukushima could be Next...

Quoting 429. whitewabit:


Hoping some of that moisture flow will be brought up into the central part of the US to give us some much needed rain .. the low developing around the 4 corners may do just that ..

only 2.6 inches of rain since the last week in July tells the story here at my place ..
Meanwhile 7.34 inches of rain has fallen here in Herndon, VA since Monday, October 7, 2013. (6 days)
434. VR46L
Quoting 430. LargoFl:


That Map looks hopeful for areas in drought but the USA looks much healthier as regards to drought now than it has for a couple of years. Hardly any deep drought at all

Quoting 432. sunlinepr:
Japan, Tokio and Fukushima could be Next...



lets hope for an early turn to the NNE
Wipha is definitely a very impressive typhoon, but the lack of intense convection around the eye will likely suppress it from becoming a category 5, in the short term at least. Nevertheless, it still has another 24 hours or so of possible intensification before environmental conditions and inner core dynamics start to play a role in the strength of the cyclone.

Quoting 434. VR46L:


That Map looks hopeful for areas in drought but the USA looks much healthier as regards to drought now than it has for a couple of years. Hardly any deep drought at all



The drought maps can be deceiving though .. many areas have gotten rain and are not considered in drought any more .. but the loss of ground water hasn't come close to being restored ..
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 435. whitewabit:


lets hope for an early turn to the NNE


Ugly trajectory... hope that or that it degrades to a TS....
forget 98,its been blown apart by the strong sheer...
Quoting LargoFl:
any chance 98 becomes that weak nor'easter in a week or so?....

I don't think 98L survives long enough to become anything but a remnant low headed out to the North Atlantic, assuming it doesn't dissipate altogether. It's headed into more hostile conditions than it's already been in, and it has shown no propensity to intensify since it formed.

The critical day climatologically is October 20. If there are no decent lows or invests by then, the probability of one forming decreasing with each passing day. By November 10, the probability drops to about 5%. If the forecasted cold air reaches the South and into the Gulf, the probability drops to near 0%. I'm not saying it's impossible for a tropical storm to form after those date, but I am saying, if I had to place a bet with real money, it would be against storm formation, and not for storm formation.
443. VR46L
Quoting 438. whitewabit:


The drought maps can be deceiving though .. many areas have gotten rain and are not considered in drought any more .. but the loss of ground water hasn't come close to being restored ..


I appreciate that especially if you are in a drought area but its still is a terrific improvement for in particular Texas .
Oct 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE LOW MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS DISTURBANCE
CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BERG
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM OCTAVE...LOCATED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

1. A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD
OR NORTHEASTWARD.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTPZ35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP5.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTPZ25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP5.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

FORECASTER STEWART

Dr. Masters, thanks so much for your coverage of cyclone Phailin. Your blogs were very informative, detailed and timely.