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Dangerous Tropical Cyclone Phailin Headed Towards India

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:09 PM GMT on October 09, 2013

In the North Indian Ocean's Bay of Bengal, Tropical Storm Phailin has formed off the west coast of Thailand, and is moving west-northwest towards India at 8 mph. Satellite images show that Phailin is a medium-sized storm that is increasing in organization and intensity. Water temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, and the ocean heat content is very high, 80 - 100 kJ/cm^2--a level often associated with rapid intensification. With wind shear low, Phailin should be able to intensify into at least a Category 1 storm before landfall occurs near 12 UTC on Saturday, as predicted by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is predicting that Phailin may be able to intensify into a Category 3 storm before landfall. The 12Z Wednesday run of the HWRF model predicted that Phailin would peak as a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds at landfall on Saturday. The northeast coast of India where Phailin is expected to hit is vulnerable to high storm surges and is densely populated, so Phailin has the potential to be a very dangerous storm.


Figure 1. The great Odisha Cyclone of 1999 at landfall on October 19, 1999 at 05:30 UTC, as seen by the Meteosat satellite. The cyclone hit the Indian state of Odisha (formerly called Orissa) near the city of Bhubaneswar as a Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds, killing 9,658 people and causing $2.5 billion in damage (1999 dollars). Image credit: NOAA.

India's tropical cyclone history
Only two Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones have hit India at hurricane strength since 2000. The most recent was Cyclone Thane,  which hit Southeast India on December 30, 2011, as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Thane killed 48 people and did $250 million in damage. The most recent major tropical cyclone to hit India was the 1999 Odisha Cyclone, which hit Northeast India in the Indian state of Odisha (formerly called Orissa) near the city of Bhubaneswar as a Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds on October 29, 1999. The mighty storm, which had been at Category 5 strength with 160 mph winds and a 912 mb central pressure shortly before landfall, drove a storm surge of 26 feet (8 meters) onto the coast. The storm stalled just inland, dumping torrential rains on portions of India already saturated from the landfall of Category 4 Tropical Cyclone 04B just twelve days before. The catastrophe killed 9,658 people and left $2.5 billion in damage (1999 dollars), India's most expensive and fourth deadliest tropical cyclone in the past 100 years. Six other Indian tropical cyclones occurring before 1900 were deadlier; see wunderground's list of the 35 Deadliest Tropical Cyclones in World History. During the past two centuries, 42 percent of Earth's tropical cyclone-associated deaths have occurred in Bangladesh, and 27 percent have occurred in India (Nicholls et al., 1995.)

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a detailed post on India's tropical cyclone history.

References
Nicholls, R.J.N., N. Mimura, J.C. Topping, 1995, "Climate change in south and south-east Asia: some implications for coastal areas," J Glob Environ Eng 1995;1:137–54.

Little change to 98L in the Eastern Atlantic
A tropical wave (Invest 98L) located about 400 miles south-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is headed west to west-northwest at about 5 - 10 mph. Satellite loops show that 98L has a small area of heavy thunderstorms with a modest amount of spin. The UKMET and GFS models develop the disturbance into a tropical depression late in the week, but the European model does not. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 30%, and 5-day odds of 40%. 98L's projected west-northwest track is expected take it near or just northeast of the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands around Wednesday October 16, according to the 00Z Wednesday morning runs of the GFS and European models.

Tropical Storm Nari headed towards the Philippines
In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Nari has formed east of the Philippines, and is expected to intensify into a Category 1 typhoon and make landfall on Luzon Island in the Philippines this weekend, and in Vietnam next week. The GFS and European models predict that a new tropical storm will form east of the Philippines late this week, but recurve to the northeast and not threaten any land areas.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Near Marianas Islands

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1000 hPa) located at 13.0N 145.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 14.0N 142.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas Islands
CSU forecast above average activity in October/November

They say the ACE will get to 11 units but with a caveat about the signals that have not worked well this season.
Quoting 458. Hurricane614:
I just went on a walk to see if I can find a good place to view the ISS, and when I found a nice place to watch and look what I found


I swear I almost passed out
That photo you posted of the aurora borealis with a tree in the foreground was taken in July of 2008 by photographer David Bebee of the Kitchener, Ontario, Canada newspaper, "The Record." It was picked up and distributed by the Associated Press, and published in the New York Times and some other places.

It's a spectacular picture, but I don't understand your comment.
PilotOnline.com

Hampton Roads, VA







I found a storm at coordinates 144 degrees East by 12 degrees North, and its low pressure center at the moment is right on top of Guam and its the storm on the right of Tropical Storm Nari, the big storm, it has a chance of being a hurricane in most likely 4-6 days. Maybe not.
Quoting 504. ncstorm:
PilotOnline.com

Hampton Roads, VA









It's been buckets of fun!
09/2345 UTC 15.0N 100.5W T1.0/1.0 94E -- East Pacific
Quoting 509. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Yikes.



Eye spy an I.
I can't believe how fast this storm has developed. I figured it would end up quite strong but I thought it would need a little more time over water to organize its core before taking off. Winds are probably close to 100mph right now, maybe a bit below that. It's definitely been in an RI phase.

He obviously found a 2008 New York Times in the bushes.

Quoting 503. Xulonn:
That photo you posted of the aurora borealis with a tree in the foreground was taken in July of 2008 by photographer David Bebee of the Kitchener, Ontario, Canada newspaper, "The Record." It was picked up and distributed by the Associated Press, and published in the New York Times and some other places.

It's a spectacular picture, but I don't understand your comment.
513. beell
Quoting 498. GTstormChaserCaleb:










I am almost certain this season will be under intensive review as to why it did not live up to expectation.



I am almost certain that our ability to make accurate seasonal forecasts will remain below expectations of skill in 2014.
Quoting 496. Tazmanian:



never say never.
Thank you Taz !!!!
this



looks like Hurricane Wilma dont you think?




Impressive.

Quoting 451. CybrTeddy:


The Australian's seem to do a decent job.
They do ok, but they aren't the same league as the Portugese. Portugal rocks my man!!!!
I just went on a walk to see if I can find a good place to view the ISS, and when I found a nice place to watch and look what I found:




What the heck is that???
Quoting 517. MississippiWx:
Impressive.

The Gfs is doing very well with these system so far.
Quoting 519. BobinTampa:
I just went on a walk to see if I can find a good place to view the ISS, and when I found a nice place to watch and look what I found:




What the heck is that???
Manbearpig :D
Quoting 517. MississippiWx:
Impressive.


Very. This is going to be a big deal.
Quoting 447. VR46L:


Thanks! I looked further it looks like it gives me a miss, but Iceland will get whacked



Portugal should watch this one too.
02B/MH/P/C3
Quoting 517. MississippiWx:
Impressive.

Rapid Intensification.
526. SLU
Quoting 502. Tropicsweatherpr:
CSU forecast above average activity in October/November

They say the ACE will get to 11 units but with a caveat about the signals that have not worked well this season.


Very brave of CSU to still forecast an above average Caribbean Hurricane Season for Oct/Nov. This is a forecast I believe will bust ......... again.

We expect that October-November will have above-average hurricane activity in the Caribbean basin. This forecast is due to hurricane-enhancing factors from the two predictors utilized. Cool neutral ENSO conditions are currently occurring in the tropical Pacific (a positive factor), while Caribbean basin sea surface temperatures are relatively warm (an additional enhancing factor). A caveat with this forecast is that typical large-scale climate signals that work well in predicting most tropical cyclone seasons have not worked well with this year's predictions.
Praying for everyone in India in the path of the cyclone in the Bay of Bengal that appears to be undergoing rapid intensification. I'm getting that very sick feeling in my stomach that I did when I was tracking Katrina's RI in the Gulf.
Quoting 519. BobinTampa:
I just went on a walk to see if I can find a good place to view the ISS, and when I found a nice place to watch and look what I found:




What the heck is that???
wunder bear
Dvorak T3.0

looks like the next advisory from India Meteorological Department will be 40-45 knots.
You may not be religious so don't listen to the first part of this, but my prayers go to the people of India as this monster nears. I fear the news that will come from there once Phailin gets there.
Quoting 530. HadesGodWyvern:
Dvorak T3.0

looks like the next advisory from India Meteorological Department will be 40-45 knots.



but this has

09/2030 UTC 14.4N 91.5E T4.5/4.5 PHAILIN -- Bay of Bengal
Quoting 530. HadesGodWyvern:
Dvorak T3.0

looks like the next advisory from India Meteorological Department will be 40-45 knots.
looks better than that near c3 high c2 conditions as per vis sat to me anyway


the satellite they are using.. you can't see the eye forming

That is the reason.
Quoting 534. HadesGodWyvern:


the satellite they are using.. you can't see the eye forming

That is the reason.
well there in for a surprise if it maintains itself all the way in
Quoting 530. HadesGodWyvern:
Dvorak T3.0

looks like the next advisory from India Meteorological Department will be 40-45 knots.

That's nearly criminal.
State of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season

- 12 tropical cyclones
- 11 named storms
- 2 hurricanes (both Cat. 1s)
- 0 major hurricanes
- Strongest storm: Humberto, 980mbar (85 mph)
- USA landfalls: 1, Andrea (60 mph)
- Total landfalls: 6 (5 non-USA, 1 USA)
- Unknown amount of damage (need NCDC information; comes out in coming months)
- 45 deaths (questionable due to Manuel/Ingrid situation)
- ACE: 28.02 units (includes post-season changes)



State of the 2013 Pacific hurricane season

- 14 tropical cyclones (East Pacific solely; 17 including Central Pacific)
- 14 named storms (East Pacific solely; 16 including Central Pacific)
- 7 hurricanes
- 0 major hurricanes
- Strongest storm: Henriette, 976mbar (105 mph)
- Total cyclone landfalls: 2
- $39.2 million (2013 USD) in damage (96.6% from Manuel)
- 95 confirmed, over 70 missing (questionable figures because of Ingrid/Manuel situation)
- ACE: 44.595 units (East Pacific solely; 50.7725 units including the Central Pacific - accounts for post-season changes)

I can't remember what Super Cyclonic Storm Gonu looked on Kapala-1 radar.. but IMD knew it was 130 knots (3 min sustained winds)
Pahilin 03:00z track.



Nari 03:00z track.

Quoting 537. TropicalAnalystwx13:
State of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season

- 12 tropical cyclones
- 11 named storms
- 2 hurricanes (both Cat. 1s)
- 0 major hurricanes
- Strongest storm: Humberto, 980mbar (85 mph)
- USA landfalls: 1, Andrea (60 mph)
- Total landfalls: 6 (5 non-USA, 1 USA)
- Unknown amount of damage (need NCDC information; comes out in coming months)
- 45 deaths (questionable due to Manuel/Ingrid situation)
- ACE: 28.02 units (includes post-season changes)



State of the 2013 Pacific hurricane season

- 17 tropical cyclones
- 16 named storms
- 7 hurricanes
- 0 major hurricanes
- Strongest storm: Henriette, 976mbar (105 mph)
- Total cyclone landfalls: 2
- $39.2 million (2013 USD) in damage (96.6% from Manuel)
- 95 confirmed, over 70 missing (questionable figures because of Ingrid/Manuel situation)
- ACE: 44.595 units (East Pacific solely; 50.7725 units including the Central Pacific - accounts for post-season changes)




lol are 16 name storms went too the E PAC
I see the Joint Typhoon Warning Center gave Phailin 55 knots instead of 80-85.
Quoting 530. HadesGodWyvern:
Dvorak T3.0

looks like the next advisory from India Meteorological Department will be 40-45 knots.
Okay I am pretty sure that this is at least the equivalent of a category 1 hurricane right now based on it's satellite presentation........unless I am somehow really stupidly drunk and seeing things in a very interesting way.....
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013
800 PM PDT WED OCT 09 2013

...NARDA REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT DRIFTS
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 128.7W
ABOUT 1300 MI...2090 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
Okay I am pretty sure that this is at least the equivalent of a category 1 hurricane right now based on it's satellite presentation........unless I am somehow really stupidly drunk and seeing things in a very interesting way.....


It's not you.. it's the Kapala-1 satellite. It does not really show eyes of hurricanes very well unless it's huge.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013
800 PM PDT WED OCT 09 2013

NARDA CONTINUES TO GENEATE DEEP CONVECTION IN A SMALL BAND TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. SCATTEROMETER OVERPASSES 6-9 HOURS AGO
INDICATED 30-35 KT WINDS WEST OF THE CENTER...AND THE MOST RECENT
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB IS 30 KT. BASED ON THESE
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. WHILE THE FORECAST
TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OVER INCREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD CAUSE
NARDA TO WEAKEN. THUS...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO
A REMNANT LOW IN 12 HOURS AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 72 HOURS.

NARDA NOW APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION OF 245/2. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 16.5N 128.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 16.2N 129.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 11/0000Z 15.7N 130.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 11/1200Z 15.1N 131.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/0000Z 14.7N 132.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Beautiful sunset ontop of Mount Washington Observatory, looking far out to the horizon of Canada.

Quoting 543. Civicane49:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013
800 PM PDT WED OCT 09 2013

...NARDA REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT DRIFTS
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 128.7W
ABOUT 1300 MI...2090 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


wonder what made Narda to restrengthen earlier... wasn't it down to 30 MPH this morning.
Quoting 547. HadesGodWyvern:


wonder what made Narda to restrengthen earlier... wasn't it down to 30 MPH this morning.


It did earlier but went up to 35 mph with the ASCAT pass around 1800Z showing 30 knot wind barbs.

will be watching the Caribbean Sea for development during the next 10 days some models have been picking up on something and with the new csu forecast hinting that could be a potential area to host a hurricane we should keep an eye on it through the end of the month and even into early November.
Quoting 412. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
a good addition to the crew it is
Agreed.

[waves at the night crew]

Quoting 435. Patrap:
img style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px;" src="http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/p lots/northatlantic/2013/al982013/track_early/aal98 _2013100918_track_early.png"

Interesting that BAMS keeps 98L well below 20N at 55W... meaning if it can hold on to its integrity while not strengthening too much, 98L may be of interest to interests in the NW Car on Monday...

vary nic camping weather


Link
Quoting 537. TropicalAnalystwx13:
State of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season

- 12 tropical cyclones
- 11 named storms
- 2 hurricanes (both Cat. 1s)
- 0 major hurricanes
- Strongest storm: Humberto, 980mbar (85 mph)
- USA landfalls: 1, Andrea (60 mph)
- Total landfalls: 6 (5 non-USA, 1 USA)
- Unknown amount of damage (need NCDC information; comes out in coming months)
- 45 deaths (questionable due to Manuel/Ingrid situation)
- ACE: 28.02 units (includes post-season changes)



State of the 2013 Pacific hurricane season

- 14 tropical cyclones (East Pacific solely; 17 including Central Pacific)
- 14 named storms (East Pacific solely; 16 including Central Pacific)
- 7 hurricanes
- 0 major hurricanes
- Strongest storm: Henriette, 976mbar (105 mph)
- Total cyclone landfalls: 2
- $39.2 million (2013 USD) in damage (96.6% from Manuel)
- 95 confirmed, over 70 missing (questionable figures because of Ingrid/Manuel situation)
- ACE: 44.595 units (East Pacific solely; 50.7725 units including the Central Pacific - accounts for post-season changes)

It's so strange to think that the Western Hemisphere has not seen a Major Hurricane yet this year. I wonder if this has ever happened in the satellite era.
Quoting 552. 1900hurricane:
It's so strange to think that the Western Hemisphere has not seen a Major Hurricane yet this year. I wonder if this has ever happened in the satellite era.


(yet) thats a key word because i predict there will be 1 major hurricane before the season ends.
Quoting 552. 1900hurricane:
It's so strange to think that the Western Hemisphere has not seen a Major Hurricane yet this year. I wonder if this has ever happened in the satellite era.




what about the W PAC inst that in the Western Hemisphere has well?
Quoting 552. 1900hurricane:
It's so strange to think that the Western Hemisphere has not seen a Major Hurricane yet this year. I wonder if this has ever happened in the satellite era.

It hasn't.
Quoting 554. Tazmanian:




what about the W PAC inst that in the Western Hemisphere has well?


It's in the Eastern Hemisphere as it is west of the dateline.
Quoting 554. Tazmanian:




what about the W PAC inst that in the Western Hemisphere has well?


eastern hemisphere im pretty sure they are probably separated around the international date line
Quoting 555. TropicalAnalystwx13:

It hasn't.
2013 is the alter-ego of 2005. Both are anomalies. In our life time it is quite possible we'll never see a repeat of either one of these seasons again.
Quoting 558. GTstormChaserCaleb:
2013 is the alter-ego of 2005. Both are anomalies. In our life time it is quite possible we'll never see a repeat of either one of these seasons again.


Interesting how they sorta cancel each other out.
Quoting 451. CybrTeddy:


The Australians seem to do a decent job.
So do the Japanese for the most part. They seem to be less conservative than the Philipinos and track / timing is usually fairly accurate.
Quoting 552. 1900hurricane:
It's so strange to think that the Western Hemisphere has not seen a Major Hurricane yet this year. I wonder if this has ever happened in the satellite era.




2012-13 SPac's Evan...became a major in the Western Hemisphere ....in December 2012.

Not super likely, but we could have something like this again I guess.
562. txjac
Quoting 553. MiamiHeat305:


(yet) thats a key word because i predict there will be 1 major hurricane before the season ends.


Kind of a strong prediction for you. Enlighten me as to why you think this please
Hello from hell on earth.... It's absolutely brutal here in Sydney right now. Strong gust very hot winds, very scary and very very hot.

A towel takes 5 minutes to go from soaking wet to on fire, I mean, crispy dry.
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.

!!! Special Report: U.S. builders hoard mineral rights under new homes (courtesy of etxwx)

* New York Set to Reach Climate Point-of-No-Return in 2047

I don't often editorialize, but articles and headlines like this article above make me uneasy. If there is a below-average temperature year after the deadline for any of these cities you can bet it will generate a lot of hoopla on the denier sites and blogs.

Shale Drillers Offered Water Cheaper Than U.K. Residents

Your Dot: On Walking Dogs and Warming Trends

The article immediately above includes a long quote by Kip Hansen that I disagree with.

China calls NASA conference ban 'discriminatory'

*** Shock outlook for local weather


The article above goes is about the same topic as the second article but in greater detail. My reservations still apply. A third article in ScienceDaily about this topic is here.

!!! A Strange Lonely Planet Found Without a Star

*** Longer Life for Humans Linked to Further Loss of Endangered Species

Precision Agriculture for Small Scale Farming Systems


* Major Leap Towards Graphene for Solar Cells

*** Natural gas 'fracking' has flipped US energy map, study says

Jupiter-bound Juno probe encounters glitch after Earth flyby

Archaeologists want *you* to solve this 1,200-year-old Pictish puzzle

Open source science--will you participate? (article immediately above)
Tropical Cyclone Phailin has been strengthening at a fast pace and you can now clearly see that an eye feature has formed. If the NHC had control of operations in the Indian Ocean, this would most likely be nearing Category 2 status. It frustrates me to know that the innocent and some of the less fortunate people of India will be in the direct path of a Intense Cyclone that is being tracked by an agency with a track-record for being very conservative with Intensity estimates, which leads to many being caught off-guard.

We can only hope that people are aware of the situation and are evacuating the coastlines and taking shelter.


Goodnight Everyone
Quoting 559. Dakster:


Interesting how they sorta cancel each other out.
When I get some time Dakster I'm going to try to construct a graph of the 2005 and 2013 season with an average to include ACE and named storms/hurricanes/and major hurricanes.
10/0230 UTC 14.6N 91.2E T4.5/4.5 PHAILIN -- Bay of Bengal
Quoting 562. txjac:


Kind of a strong prediction for you. Enlighten me as to why you think this please


well i hope i'm wrong but season isnt over yet and conditions look favorable later this month as the MJO returns and waters are warm in the caribbean is there a reason to not see a major? its 2013 isnt a reason though so besides that?
Quoting 566. GTstormChaserCaleb:
When I get some time Dakster I'm going to try to construct a graph of the 2005 and 2013 season with an average to include ACE and named storms/hurricanes/and major hurricanes.


That would be neat to see.
570. txjac
Quoting 565. TylerStanfield:
Tropical Cyclone Phailin has been strengthening at a fast pace and you can now clearly see that an eye feature has formed. If the NHC had control of operations in the Indian Ocean, this would most likely be nearing Category 2 status. It frustrates me to know that the innocent and some of the less fortunate people of India will be in the direct path of a Intense Cyclone that is being tracked by an agency with a track-record for being very conservative with Intensity estimates, which leads to many being caught off-guard.

We can only hope that people are aware of the situation and are evacuating the coastlines and taking shelter.


Goodnight Everyone


I'm hoping that if there are Indian residents here in the US that are from these regions or know family or friends that are in this path that they would communicate the information. I work with many, many Indians and they are aware of the hurricane/typhoon.
571. txjac
Quoting 568. MiamiHeat305:


well i hope i'm wrong but season isnt over yet and conditions look favorable later this month as the MJO returns and waters are warm in the caribbean is there a reason to not see a major? its 2013 isnt a reason though so besides that?


Thanks for the response
Quoting 571. txjac:


Thanks for the response

no problem and hopefully we dont see anything :)

Quoting 570. txjac:


I'm hoping that if there are Indian residents here in the US that are from these regions or know family or friends that are in this path that they would communicate the information. I work with many, many Indians and they are aware of the hurricane/typhoon.
Kinda hard not to be...
A major hurricane can occur in October fairly easily. Not too much is preventing that, if all factors are equal.

It depends on the MJO progression, primarily. It will be interesting to see what pans out.
Quoting 563. AussieStorm:
Hello from hell on earth.... It's absolutely brutal here in Sydney right now. Strong gust very hot winds, very scary and very very hot.

A towel takes 5 minutes to go from soaking wet to on fire, I mean, crispy dry.

What's the Temperature like out that way Aussie? It's barely even Spring over there and it's that hot. I'm sure that's not a good sign of things to come.

As fall is setting in here in Texas, it's actually been pretty comfortable with Temperatures in the 80's and there's a good chance of rain for a good portion of the weekend and into next week. :)

If we get the rain that is forecasted of 1-3 Inches, it could finally put us over the edge and finally make mine, and many other Texans wishes come true.
The Drought of 2011-2013 to be officially OVER!
Moving West...

578. txjac
Quoting 575. TylerStanfield:

What's the Temperature like out that way Aussie? It's barely even Spring over there and it's that hot. I'm sure that's not a good sign of things to come.

As fall is setting in here in Texas, it's actually been pretty comfortable with Temperatures in the 80's and there's a good chance of rain for a good portion of the weekend and into next week. :)

If we get the rain that is forecasted of 1-3 Inches, it could finally put us over the edge and finally make mine, and many other Texans wishes come true.
The Drought of 2011-2013 to be officially OVER!


I'll take whatever Mother Nature gives us ...deficits from years past need to be taken into consideration
Quoting 568. MiamiHeat305:


well i hope i'm wrong but season isnt over yet and conditions look favorable later this month as the MJO returns and waters are warm in the caribbean is there a reason to not see a major? its 2013 isnt a reason though so besides that?


Shear? Dry air?

Quoting 577. sunlinepr:
Moving West...

Unless it hits the Caribbean (which is unlikely), it will recurve east of the US under a rather climatological western Atlantic trough.
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
2013 is the alter-ego of 2005. Both are anomalies. In our life time it is quite possible we'll never see a repeat of either one of these seasons again.
Agree, but 2013, will be remember by the expectations of the experts and most distinguish authorities in forecasting meteorological events vs. what the season turn out to be in reality... explanations, investigation on the matter would take perhaps years ....
Quoting 579. VAbeachhurricanes:


Shear? Dry air?


Its 2013...?
Quoting yqt1001:




2012-13 SPac's Evan...became a major in the Western Hemisphere ....in December 2012.

Not super likely, but we could have something like this again I guess.


Evan looped around Western Samoa which is in the Eastern Hemisphere. If Evan had moved closer to America Samoa it would of moved into the Western Hemisphere.

STC Evan...


STC Evan's Track.

Quoting 574. KoritheMan:
A major hurricane can occur in October fairly easily. Not too much is preventing that, if all factors are equal.

It depends on the MJO progression, primarily. It will be interesting to see what pans out.


Hi Kori. CSU released today their October/November forecast and calls for above average period in Caribbean. I think they once again will not nail this one as it has occurred all season long. They add a caveat about that.

Link
Quoting 565. TylerStanfield:
Tropical Cyclone Phailin has been strengthening at a fast pace and you can now clearly see that an eye feature has formed. If the NHC had control of operations in the Indian Ocean, this would most likely be nearing Category 2 status. It frustrates me to know that the innocent and some of the less fortunate people of India will be in the direct path of a Intense Cyclone that is being tracked by an agency with a track-record for being very conservative with Intensity estimates, which leads to many being caught off-guard.

We can only hope that people are aware of the situation and are evacuating the coastlines and taking shelter.


Goodnight Everyone
Mmmm depends for example if India is like Honduras.Many people in here may know a hurricane maybe a cat 4 or 5 is coming and they will still stay at there home,because they would be scare to loose their things like from stealing.That is what happen with Felix many people evacuate and when nothing happen many were really angry when they get back home and their things were gone.
Sarah Phailin will visit India...

588. txjac
Quoting 582. HuracanTaino:
Agree, but 2013, will be remember by the expectations of the experts and most distinguish authorities in forecasting meteorological events vs. what the season turn out to be in reality... explanations, investigation on the matter would take perhaps years ....



I'll have to go look up what was predicted in 2005. See how "off" pre-season predictions where that year
Quoting KoritheMan:

Unless it hits the Caribbean (which is unlikely), it will recurve east of the US under a rather climatological western Atlantic trough.
actually what ever gets to the Caribbean if I does, is becoming gradually more likely to happened, as each model is turning westward as the high pressure becomes stronger in the mid Atlantic....
Track forecast from the India Meteorological Department. Image is clickable and expandable.


Quoting 585. Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi Kori. CSU released today their October/November forecast and calls for above average period in Caribbean. I think they once again will not nail this one as it has occurred all season long. They add a caveat about that.

Link
Well, at least they won't be caught off guard this time, then. ;)

Quoting 589. HuracanTaino:
actually what ever gets to the Caribbean if I does, is becoming gradually more likely to happened, as each model is turning westward as the high pressure becomes stronger in the mid Atlantic....
It's actually probably a combination of the ridge and the weaker state of the system. To be fair, it probably will get fairly far west, either north or south of the Lesser Antilles, as there is no evidence to assume the large-scale upper westerlies will abate anytime soon.
Quoting TylerStanfield:

What's the Temperature like out that way Aussie? It's barely even Spring over there and it's that hot. I'm sure that's not a good sign of things to come.

As fall is setting in here in Texas, it's actually been pretty comfortable with Temperatures in the 80's and there's a good chance of rain for a good portion of the weekend and into next week. :)

If we get the rain that is forecasted of 1-3 Inches, it could finally put us over the edge and finally make mine, and many other Texans wishes come true.
The Drought of 2011-2013 to be officially OVER!


Current Temp...

Now
97.0°F rising
Updated at 14:10 EDT
Wind: WNW 25km/h rising
Wind Gusts: 39km/h
Relative Humidity: 11%
Fire Danger: 52.6
Nearby Now
Bankstown Ap: 96.4°F
Canterbury: 94.6°F
Horsley Park: 96.1°F
Sydney: 97.0°F

Quoting 588. txjac:



I'll have to go look up what was predicted in 2005. See how "off" pre-season predictions where that year
2006 and 2012 were also really off.

Still, even in those years, the number of hurricanes and intense hurricanes did not bust to this degree. It's fairly unfathomable.
Quoting 589. HuracanTaino:
actually what ever gets to the Caribbean if I does, is becoming gradually more likely to happened, as each model is turning westward as the high pressure becomes stronger in the mid Atlantic....


An October Cape Verde Hurricane that hits the East Coast US. That could be one for the anomaly books too.
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5
TROPICAL STORM SANTI
11:00 AM PhST October 10 2013
================================================= ==

Tropical Storm "SANTI" intensified further and moving closer to eastern Luzon

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Santi [NARI] (987 hPa) located at 15.2N 127.6E or 350 km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gustiness up to 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 6 knots.

Signal Warnings
===============

Signal Warning #1

Luzon Region
-------------

1. Catanduanes
2. Camarines Sur
3. Isabela
4. Aurora
5. Quezon
6. Camarines Norte

Additional Information
==========================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 5.0-20.0 mm per hour (moderate to intense) within the 400 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Residents of areas under Public Storm Warning Signal #1 are alerted againts possible flash floods and landslides.

Sea travel is risky over the seaboards of eastern Visayas.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
Quoting 588. txjac:



I'll have to go look up what was predicted in 2005. See how "off" pre-season predictions where that year

They predicted 13 Named Storms for 2005 in pre-season, and boy did the forecasters have egg on their face when the season really got going.
599. txjac
Quoting 595. Dakster:


An October Cape Verde Hurricane that hits the East Coast US. That could be one for the anomaly books too.


Thanks Dak ...really have had too much red wine to look up what I want to look up ...lol

You all excuse me please
Quoting 593. AussieStorm:


Current Temp...

Now
97.0F rising
Updated at 14:10 EDT
Wind: WNW 25km/h rising
Wind Gusts: 39km/h
Relative Humidity: 11%
Fire Danger: 52.6
Nearby Now
Bankstown Ap: 96.4F
Canterbury: 94.6F
Horsley Park: 96.1F
Sydney: 97.0F

Yikes! I don't think we even reached 95 until Mid-June (AKA the beginning of Summer over here in the Northern Hemisphere), and the humidity was definitely not that arid. Hang in their bud!

It's a comfortable 73F Here and the Humidity is at 57%. Not to rub it in your face, but hey, it is 10:33PM here.

Goodnight Everyone.
Virginia Beach, Oceana, Naval Air Station VA
Humidity87%
Wind SpeedNE 25 G 39 mph
Barometer29.96 in (1014.9 mb)
Dewpoint62F (17C)
Visibility10.00 mi

Quoting 574. KoritheMan:
A major hurricane can occur in October fairly easily. Not too much is preventing that, if all factors are equal.

It depends on the MJO progression, primarily. It will be interesting to see what pans out.


I know of a major hurricane that occurred in October...her name was Sandy.

*imagine big, child-like smile*

Quoting 604. Astrometeor:


I know of a major hurricane that occurred in October...her name was Sandy.

*imagine big, child-like smile*
Heh.
Quoting TylerStanfield:

Yikes! I don't think we even reached 95°+ until Mid-June around here, and the humidity was definitely not that arid. Hang in their bud!

It's a comfortable 73°F Here and the Humidity is at 57%. Not to rub it in your face, but hey, it is 10:33PM here.

Goodnight Everyone.


This page is my local WX Station.... Link Since your not a member(which is free) You won't be able to see thing in °F.
Quoting 604. Astrometeor:


I know of a major hurricane that occurred in October...her name was Sandy.

*imagine big, child-like smile*


Hattie and Hazel also spring to mind. Does Wilma count?
Quoting 603. VAbeachhurricanes:
Virginia Beach, Oceana, Naval Air Station VA
Humidity87%
Wind SpeedNE 25 G 39 mph
Barometer29.96 in (1014.9 mb)
Dewpoint62�F (17�C)
Visibility10.00 mi



Blustery
Quoting 610. Civicane49:
Cat 2 or 3 easily.
Quoting 604. Astrometeor:


I know of a major hurricane that occurred in October...her name was Sandy.

*imagine big, child-like smile*

Sorry, can't help it. :)
October Major Hurricanes of the Past 13 Years...
2001: Hurricane Iris and Hurricane Michelle
2005: Hurricane Wilma and Hurricane Beta
2008: Hurricane Omar
2011: Hurricane Rina
2012: Hurricane Sandy
Quoting 584. AussieStorm:


Evan looped around Western Samoa which is in the Eastern Hemisphere. If Evan had moved closer to America Samoa it would of moved into the Western Hemisphere.

STC Evan...


STC Evan's Track.


Evan also occurred in December of 2012, before the turn of the year.

Quoting 607. BaltimoreBrian:
For Kori Comment?
Well...
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
Storm Warning
TROPICAL STORM NARI (T1325)
12:00 PM JST October 10 2013
======================================

Sea East Of The Philippines

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Nari (992 hPa) located at 15.2N 127.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center

Dvorak intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 15.8N 124.2E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
45 HRS: 16.1N 121.0E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Overland Luzon
69 HRS: 16.0N 116.3E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Evan also occurred in December of 2012, before the turn of the year.


As noted by yqt1001 in their original comment.
618. txjac
Quoting 602. TylerStanfield:

Yikes! I don't think we even reached 95� until Mid-June (AKA the beginning of Summer over here in the Northern Hemisphere), and the humidity was definitely not that arid. Hang in their bud!

It's a comfortable 73�F Here and the Humidity is at 57%. Not to rub it in your face, but hey, it is 10:33PM here.

Goodnight Everyone.


Tyler, where are you at in Texas?
Quoting 613. TylerStanfield:

Sorry, can't help it. :)
October Major Hurricanes of the Past 13 Years...
2001: Hurricane Iris and Hurricane Michelle
2005: Hurricane Wilma and Hurricane Beta
2008: Hurricane Omar
2011: Hurricane Rina
2012: Hurricane Sandy
Michelle hit here [The Bahamas] after November 1st. So this wasn't even a mid-October storm...

EDIT: Thanks, Brian. I only remember school was closed the 1st week in Nov for a hurricane, which was pretty much unprecedented for us since 1970...
55 kts? Please...



It'll be double that soon at this rate.
Quoting 618. txjac:


Tyler, where are you at in Texas?


Couldn't be Tyler TX? That would be funny.
Quoting 617. AussieStorm:


As noted by yqt1001 in their original comment.

Must have missed that, my bad.

Quoting 621. 1900hurricane:
55 kts? Please...



It'll be double that soon at this rate.
These conservative foreign agencies bug me with intensity. Never fails.
Quoting 589. HuracanTaino:
actually what ever gets to the Caribbean if I does, is becoming gradually more likely to happened, as each model is turning westward as the high pressure becomes stronger in the mid Atlantic....

2005 was initially forecast to be relatively quiet due to uncertainty about a developing El Nino. The April 1, 2005 CSU forecast called for 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 majors. Their next update on May 31 called for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 majors. NOAA called for 12-15 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes on May 16. Needless to say, 2005 went beyond these expectations.
Quoting 621. 1900hurricane:
55 kts? Please...



It'll be double that soon at this rate.
It does look closer to 85 than 55kts...
Quoting 613. TylerStanfield:

Sorry, can't help it. :)
October Major Hurricanes of the Past 13 Years...
2001: Hurricane Iris and Hurricane Michelle
2005: Hurricane Wilma and Hurricane Beta
2008: Hurricane Omar
2011: Hurricane Rina
2012: Hurricane Sandy
My turn.

November Major Hurricanes:

1912 Hurricane 7,
Cuba hurricane of 1932,
Hurricane Greta in 1956,
Hurricane Kate in 1985,
Hurricane Lenny in 1999,
Hurricane Michelle in 2001,
Hurricane Paloma in 2008.
Quoting 625. TropicalAnalystwx13:

2005 was initially forecast to be quiet due to uncertainty about a developing El Nino. The April 1, 2005 CSU forecast called for 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 majors. Their next update on May 31 called for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 majors. NOAA called for 12-15 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes on May 16. Needless to say, 2005 went beyond these expectations.
By the time they were doing Aug update, the season had already spit out almost that many storms, and definitely the majors. That was an amazing July.

Quoting 627. GTstormChaserCaleb:
My turn.

November Major Hurricanes:

1912 Hurricane 7,
Cuba hurricane of 1932,
Hurricane Greta in 1956,
Hurricane Kate in 1985,
Hurricane Lenny in 1999,
Hurricane Michelle in 2001.


Paloma in 2008.
Quoting 626. BahaHurican:
It does look closer to 85 than 55kts...

I was saying 85 kts earlier, but based on that last pass and the latest sat imagery, I'd say we're up around 100 kts now.
If I had time, I'd make a box plot for seasonal forecasts vs. observed totals for the past few years. Think I'll start on it during my free periods tomorrow.
Quoting 618. txjac:


Tyler, where are you at in Texas?


HurricaneDean07 (his old handle) is from Crystal Beach, Texas, according to WU's list.
634. txjac
Quoting 633. Astrometeor:


HurricaneDean07 (his old handle) is from Crystal Beach, Texas, according to WU's list.


Thanks Astro

These conservative foreign agencies bug me with intensity. Never fails.


foreign? but, but JTWC is Hawaii.. that can't be too foreign. =P
Quoting 630. BaltimoreBrian:


Paloma in 2008.
Thanks, went back and fixed it, when I copied and paste I didn't highlight the whole section. Guess it is just getting to be that time in the night.
Quoting 584. AussieStorm:


Evan looped around Western Samoa which is in the Eastern Hemisphere. If Evan had moved closer to America Samoa it would of moved into the Western Hemisphere.

STC Evan...


STC Evan's Track.



Evan was a major for quite a while and it reached 100kts, according to the JTWC, at 171W. It had the ACE equivalent to a long lived ATL CV hurricane.
Heading into higher TCHP.

What a beautiful day it is today! My Cardinals are going to NLCS once again :)
TylerStanfield needs to tell his Hurricane Ike story.
Aircraft 700 mb wind data after Michelle became extratropical on 6th indicated winds as high as 106 kt. This would normally support surface winds of 90-95 kt using reduction factors developed for eyewall conditions (Figure 4). However, no significant convection was associated with the storm at that time. Thus, the best track intensity is set to a more conservative 75 kt using reduction factors for non-convective situations. This interesting observation in the TCR reflects my recollection of this very interesting storm. Michelle was the first storm which impacted the Bahamas which I was able to track via computer. When Floyd had hit us in 1999 my computer was not working. However, I remember watching the satellite imagery as Michelle basically just fell to pieces. It looked like some Wolverine-like hand just stuck its "claws" into the storm as it crossed Cuba and entered our waters. I also watched the eye, which was extremely large, approach New Providence before the power went out. The most interesting thing about Michelle was the way the highest winds and heaviest rainfall were divorced. As the eye approached, the rain rate was torrential. Our street was under as much as 10 inches of standing rain water at one point - no surge. The northern part of the eye passed over New Providence, but when it was gone, we got no more rain, just the heaviest winds we had experienced to that point. By the time it was all over, the wind dried up the rain, and our street was almost as dry as it had been before the storm.
this is a major I don't care what there sayin

02b is a high impact dangerous storm
TXIO24 KNES 100250
TCSNIO

A. 02B (PHAILIN)

B. 10/0230Z

C. 14.6N

D. 91.2E

E. ONE/MET-7

F. T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...A BLACK EYE SURROUNDED BY WHITE AND EMBEDDED IN BLACK
YIELDS A DT OF 4.5 AFTER A -1.0 ADJUSTMENT. MET IS 4.0 AND PT IS 4.5. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

09/2141Z 14.4N 91.6E AMSU


...RAMIREZ
Quoting 642. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
this is a major I don't care what there sayin

Wow that is rapid intensification at its finest.
they're slowly catching up

0300 AM UTC..

Dvorak 3.5

55-60 knots from India Meteorological Department
Quoting 635. HadesGodWyvern:


foreign? but, but JTWC is Hawaii.. that can't be too foreign. =P


Pretty clear from the latest Indian warning that they see this danger clearly; a storm of constantly increasing strength over the next 48 hours with gusts over 120 mph at landfall.

They at least appear to have a pretty good idea what they are in for. Deep trouble!

Link
* make note that is advisory just issued is stated for 3 hours ago

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
CYCLONIC STORM PHAILIN (BOB04-2013)
5:30 AM IST October 10 2013
======================================

Subject: Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN in east central Bay of Bengal

Cyclone Alert for North Andhra Pradesh and Orissa Coast

Cyclone Warning for Andaman & Nicobar Island


At 0:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Phailin over east central Bay of Bengal moved slightly northwest wards intensified further and now lays near 14.5N 91.5E, about 850 km southeast of Paradip, 900 km east southeast of Kalingapatnam, and 950 km east southeast of Visakhapatnam.

The system would intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 12 hours. It also would continue to move northwestwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast between Kalingapatnam and Paradip by Friday/Saturday as a very severe cyclonic storm with sustained winds of 95-100 knots.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T3.0. Intense to very intense convection is seen over east central bay and adjoining north Andaman Sea adjoining islands and area between lat 11.0N to 16.0N and long 88.0E to 94.0E. The associated convection has increased gradually with respect to height and organization during past 6 hours. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -80C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The state of the sea is high around the center. The central pressure of Phailin is 996 hPa.

The upper tropospheric ridge runs along 19n and is providing poleward out flow in association with the anticyclonic circulation over central India. Hence upper level divergence is favorable for intensification. The low level convergence along with low level relative vorticity has increased during past 12 hours.. The sea surface temperature is about 28-29C and ocean thermal energy is about 80-100 kj/cm2. The sea height anomaly is about 5-10 meters. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind has decreased and is about 5-15 knots (low to moderate). The Madden-Jullian oscillation index lies over phase 6 with amplitude greater than 1. Numerical weather prediction models suggest that Madden-Jullian oscillation would continue in phase 6 during next 3 days.

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS: 15.2N 90.2E - 50-55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 16.1N 88.5E - 65-70 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 17.5N 86.1E - 85-90 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS: 20.0N 84.7E - 50-55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
Quoting 608. AussieStorm:


This page is my local WX Station.... Link Since your not a member(which is free) You won't be able to see thing in °F.


Is that your tennis court? I pulled up your house by going to your weather site. Nice pad.
Quoting 642. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
this is a major I don't care what there sayin

But, it's still a 55 knot TS.

Nari looking more organised and might potentially intensify rapidly.
Lol..that is definitely not a 55 kt ts. Especially if it has an eye in it lmao. It's already like a cat 2 .
Probably a much more accurate intensity...

2013OCT10 043000 5.0 968.2 90.0 5.0 5.0 4.3 MW ON
This is fun to watch, the loop of Phailin's RI:

98L:

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS NOT IMPROVED.
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.
94E:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE DECREASED A LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
What percentage chance would you say 98L has of making it into the Caribbean?

My guess is 20%
Quoting 652. Stormchaser2007:
Probably a much more accurate intensity...

2013OCT10 043000 5.0 968.2 90.0 5.0 5.0 4.3 MW ON

agreed
This storm is likely going to end up being a nasty one.

94E will be one of the key ingredients for that heavy rain that is forecast to setup over most of tx late this weekend along with a stalled out front pushing that engery over tx.
Quoting 621. 1900hurricane:
55 kts? Please...



It'll be double that soon at this rate.
Please they fail.I am sorry to say it but they really need to be more open about intensity,It surprise me an organization can be this lacking in this field and worse when they are millions of people counting on them.
Quoting 660. allancalderini:
Please they fail.I am sorry to say it but they really need to be more open about intensity,It surprise me an organization can be this lacking in this field and worse when they are millions of people counting on them.


Yes, unfortunately this is a life or death situation for many people there. I have no clue why they would be so conservative.
Quoting 661. sdswwwe:


Yes, unfortunately this is a life or death situation for many people there. I have no clue why they would be so conservative.
maybe as to not cause mass panic and cause more death before the storm even got there
Quoting 662. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
maybe as to not cause mass panic and cause more death before the storm even got there


I was considering that, but would mass panic really be worse than unprepared and unevacuated people facing a major hurricane? I believe every hour counts, even if the storm is 72 hours away.
Quoting 653. Astrometeor:
This is fun to watch, the loop of Phailin's RI:

I digress, that is NOT a 55 knot tropical cyclone.
Quoting 663. sdswwwe:


I was considering that, but would mass panic really be worse than unprepared and unevacuated people facing a major hurricane? I believe every hour counts, even if the storm is 72 hours away.
I agree 100% with what you said.


Huge S off Africa....

What a big S....

Quoting 653. Astrometeor:
This is fun to watch, the loop of Phailin's RI:




55 knots...category 2 to 3 is more likely.

If this thing is 55 knots then I will completely quit satellite analysis for the rest of my life.
With all the heavy convection being north of the circulation with 98L still, this hasn't gotten any better organized in the last two days. Been interesting how the convection has refused to wrap around the circulation to this point. The trough that was looking to pull 98L northward is moving out and if the convection ever shifts south around the LLC 98L could make the Caribbean.
Quoting 667. Jedkins01:



55 knots...category 2 to 3 is more likely.

If this thing is 55 knots then I will completely quit satellite analysis for the rest of my life.


Just bizarre that they have it at 55 knots. Defies all logic. Do they not see the eye? Keeper's thoughts on why is the only thing that makes any sense. Where this is headed is so densely populated that thousands are likely to die. Worst natural disaster of the year coming with this beast.
This is so not 55 kts.

EP, 94, 2013101006, , BEST, 0, 149N, 1018W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 100, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Quoting 669. Tribucanes:


Just bizarre that they have it at 55 knots. Defies all logic. Do they not see the eye? Keeper's thoughts on why is the only thing that makes any sense. Where this is headed is so densely populated that thousands are likely to die. Worst natural disaster of the year coming with this beast.

yeah... so messed up that they are not changing anything and its going to be bad.. surreal knowing that thousands will die, and you cant do anything
AL, 98, 2013101006, , BEST, 0, 106N, 294W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
Typhoon Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NARI (T1325)
15:00 PM JST October 10 2013
======================================

Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Nari (985 hPa) located at 15.3N 126.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center

Dvorak intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 15.8N 123.8E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 16.1N 118.7E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 16.0N 114.3E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
EP, 14, 2013101006, , BEST, 0, 165N, 1287W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NARDA, S,
Good Morning. 98L is organizing nicely this morning.


Lots of shear ahead tho.



98L is organizing nicely this morning
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM PHAILIN (BOB04-2013)
8:30 AM IST October 10 2013
======================================

Subject: Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN in East central Bay of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for North Andhra Pradesh and Orissa Coast

At 3:00 AM UTC, The cyclonic storm over east central Bay of Bengal moved slightly westwards and intensified into a severe cyclonic storm. Severe Cyclonic Storm Phailin lays center near 14.5N 91.0E, about 820 km southeast of Paradip, 870 km east southeast of Kalingapatnam, and 900 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam.

The system would intensify into a very severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hours. It would continue to move northwestwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast between Kalingapatnam and Paradip, close to Gopalpur (Odisha) by Friday/Saturday as a very severe cyclonic storm with sustained winds of 95-100 knots.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 50 knots with gusts of 60 knots.
15.1N 90.6E Dvorak T4.0

6:00 AM

65-70 knots from the India Meteorological Department in the next advisory.

2013OCT10 073000 3.1 989.6 0.0 47.0 3.1 3.4 6.5 0.5T/hour OFF OFF -13.56 -75.13 EYE

Raw Initial Dvorak at 6.5 from the ADT

I'm sorry IMD and JTWC. That doesn't look like a 65 kt let alone a 55 kt system...

However, do note that the IMD uses 3-minute sustained winds instead of 1-minute winds employed by the JTWC and NHC.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013
200 AM PDT THU OCT 10 2013

...NARDA MOVING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 128.9W
ABOUT 1315 MI...2115 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013
200 AM PDT THU OCT 10 2013

A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND NARDA CONTINUES TO
CLING TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT STRONG SHEAR
AND DRY AIR SHOULD RESULT IN NARDA BECOMING A REMNANT LOW LATER
TODAY...WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY 72 HOURS.

THE CYCLONE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN GEOSTATIONARY
IMAGERY...BUT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS A
LITTLE TO THE EAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 240/02...AND A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH DISSIPATION AS NARDA IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
TRADE WIND FLOW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 16.4N 128.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 16.1N 129.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 11/0600Z 15.6N 130.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 11/1800Z 15.0N 131.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/0600Z 14.5N 132.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Quoting 682. Civicane49:
ah so this..is what I saw on the models last week that would be bringing rain to texas maybe..
Quoting 676. StormTrackerScott:
Good Morning. 98L is organizing nicely this morning.


good morning scott!
Good Morning Folks!..BEAUTIFUL outside right now!!!..love the coolness...dogs loved it too!
Nari's now a typhoon as per JTWC. Severe Tropical Storm according to the JMA.

Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 55 degrees with a dew point of 54 and a high expected later of about 86. I am ready for the weekend but there's still today and tomorrow. : )

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Crepes with Salted Butter Caramel Recipe, Belgian waffles with strawberries or powdered sugar, French Toast with Bourbon Peach Sauce, egg and sausage casserole, creamy oatmeal with blueberries, broccoli & cheddar omelet, bacon and grill cheese sandwich, andouille sausage and shrimp over cheesey grits, whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
Quoting 695. aislinnpaps:
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 55 degrees with a dew point of 54 and a high expected later of about 86. I am ready for the weekend but there's still today and tomorrow. : )

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Crepes with Salted Butter Caramel Recipe, Belgian waffles with strawberries or powdered sugar, French Toast with Bourbon Peach Sauce, egg and sausage casserole, creamy oatmeal with blueberries, broccoli & cheddar omelet, bacon and grill cheese sandwich, andouille sausage and shrimp over cheesey grits, whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!


Please tell me that is breakfast for a whole family (of at least 4), otherwise my European stomach is gonna cringe :)
98.close.to.a.td
Quoting 696. skycycle:


Please tell me that is breakfast for a whole family (of at least 4), otherwise my European stomach is gonna cringe :)


It's a very large sideboard, enough for all!
Quoting 699. GatorWX:


Wow, is all I can say to that.
Good morning. It appears our worst fears about Phailin are coming true. It continued to rapidly intensify overnight and based off satellite estimates is probably at about 110-115kts right now, a borderline Cat 3/4 equivalent.

JTWC and the IMD better get their act together, Phailin is looking monstrous right now - definitely over 90kts, probably closer to a 100+ - they need to start warnings and evacuations ASAP, otherwise this will turn out be a huge disaster :/

Can someone explain to me why satellite photos clearly show a RI system with perfect outflow in all quadrants, yet the intensity forecasts are severely falling behind??
Quoting 666. sunlinepr:


Huge S off Africa....

What a big S....



Big S? What do you mean?

Good morning everybody!

This isn't good...
Wow, Phailin looks beautiful in the Aqua pass.
Phailin looks beautiful.
708. MahFL
Quoting 702. skycycle:
JTWC and the IMD better get their act together


Remember in that part of the world warnings are not always able to be communicated to local villages etc due to the lack of technological infrastructure.
TXIO24 KNES 100909
TCSNIO

A. 02B (PHAILIN)

B. 10/0830Z

C. 15.2N

D. 90.6E

E. ONE/MET-7

F. T6.0/6.0/D3.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG EMBEDDED IN WHITE YIELDS A DT
OF 6.5 AFTER A PLUS 0.5 ADJUSTMENT. MET IS 4.5 AND PT IS LIMITED TO
5.0. FT IS BASED ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND THE 6HR AVERAGE DT OF
5.92. CONSTRAINTS LIMITING THE CHANGE IN FT TO 1.0 IN 6HRS, 2.0 IN 18HRS,
AND 2.5 IN 24HRS WERE BROKEN. THE CONSTRAINT LIMITING THE DIFFERENCE IN
MET AND FT TO 1.0 WAS BROKEN.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

their chances are way better than 100 yrs ago
Ummm. Woah. I predicted this system to start RI yesterday, but this is to an extreme....

And here is Nari. It looks better as well, but unfortunately it looks like it will be making landfall shortly. I pray for the people who live there to stay safe.

How is this thing still a Tropical Depression?

98L:

Quoting 613. TylerStanfield:

Sorry, can't help it. :)
October Major Hurricanes of the Past 13 Years...
2001: Hurricane Iris and Hurricane Michelle
2005: Hurricane Wilma and Hurricane Beta
2008: Hurricane Omar
2011: Hurricane Rina
2012: Hurricane Sandy


Lawl more than half are women...(I'm not)

1 is miscellaneous(LAWL)
716. VR46L
Good Morning ... A beast!!!

Philin has likely intensified to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane [on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale]. It still has over 2 days over water...meaning any intensity changes whatsoever will be modulated by inner core processes.

This is a bad situation.

Rainy windy and depressing this morning here in D.C.
98 impressive almost the middle of october?
98L up to 50%.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...ABOUT SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO
FORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW BEFORE UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL LEVEL
WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED NEAR THE DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.
Lorenzo is that you?

Quoting 719. islander101010:
98 impressive almost the middle of october?


& near the Cape Verde Islands. Shear is usually very high this time of year near Africa.

models all over the place with 98L. I can tell you this if live in the NE Caribbean then I would watch this closely.


98L...



Quoting 716. VR46L:
Good Morning ... A beast!!!

...and the JTWC stubbornly kept it at 65 knots.

Also note that the IMD uses 3-minute sustained winds.
Quoting 536. 1900hurricane:

That's nearly criminal.
Remember, the IMD uses 3-minute winds.
Pick me up song of the day.
Link
730. VR46L
Quoting 727. MoltenIce:
...and the JTWC stubbornly kept it at 65 knots.


That looks more Cat 2-3 on the Atlantic Scale .. But why would JTWC even bother about it ..its India Met Problem

What I don't understand is why the colors stay stationary if the storm rotates.



It's a shame that there are no longer regular reconnaissance flights into systems in the WPac. The JMA could benefit a lot from live, on the spot data.
TXNT26 KNES 101209
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98L)

B. 10/1145Z

C. 10.9N

D. 32.2W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...ALTHOUGH THE MOST RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS A BROAD AND
POORLY DEFINED CIRCULATION CONVECTION MEASURES SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 2/10
FOR A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT ARE ALSO 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK
Regardless of what JTWC says, this is at least a 115kt cyclone.
Quoting 732. MoltenIce:
It's a shame that there are no longer regular reconnaissance flights into systems in the WPac. The JMA could benefit a lot from live, on the spot data.


Why are there no Recon flights to the WPAC?
Quoting 734. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Regardless of what JTWC says, this is at least a 115kt cyclone.


I agree. This clearly a major hurricane in the Indian Ocean.
Latest IMD advisory puts it at 60 knots (3-min sustained) with a pressure of 982 mbar.

ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T 4.0. INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER EAST CENTRAL BAY AND ADJOINING NORTH ANDAMAN SEA ISLANDS AND AREA BETWEEN LAT 13.00N TO 16.50N AND LONG 88.00E TO 92.00E. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS INCREASED GRADUALLY WITH RESPECT TO HEIGHT AND ORGANISATION DURING PAST 03 HRS. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) IS ABOUT -770C. THE SYSTEM IS EYE PATTERN. EYE IS CIRCULAR WITH DIAMETER OF ABOUT 15 KM. EYE TEMPERATURE IS -190C.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 60 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS VERY HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 982 HPA.

Source: Link

Also, that's one cold eye. Is that normal?
Nautilus exploration live with its ROVs
We are continuing our dive on the Desecheo Ridge, west of Puerto Rico in Mona Passage, exploring the seafloor geology and biology, working our way up slope to a depth of about 200 meters. 29 min 59 sec ago
When she is e offering breakfast to the entire blog there must be a diverse selection to conform with diets,food allergies and preferances. Definately humidity returning to the Texas Gulf coast this morning and temps. back up to the mid 60's this morning. Fall was nice  when we had it earlier this week.
Quoting 696. skycycle:


Please tell me that is breakfast for a whole family (of at least 4), otherwise my European stomach is gonna cringe :)

Ascat pass of the storm.

Quoting 734. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Regardless of what JTWC says, this is at least a 115kt cyclone.
We as weather forecasters we know it but the millions in India don`t,They might believe this is only a cat 1 instead of a cat 4.I am so ashame of those organizations right now that words can`t describe it.
Quoting 735. FunnelVortex:


Why are there no Recon flights to the WPAC?
Wiki link on the 54th Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, which was deactivated in 1987.
744. VR46L
Quoting 736. FunnelVortex:


I agree. This clearly a major hurricane in the Indian Ocean.


I beg to differ .... its a Cyclone not a Hurricane , wrong ocean :)
Quoting 742. MoltenIce:
Wiki link on the 54th Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, which was deactivated in 1987.


Why did they do that? They could use it.
Quoting 743. FunnelVortex:


May be already a TD or close to be one.
Good Morning..

Henry Margusity Fan Club
I would remain vigilant along the Eastern seaboard next week. While we have a coastal now, another may form later next week.
749. VR46L
Quoting 742. MoltenIce:
Wiki link on the 54th Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, which was deactivated in 1987.


When were they deactivated in the Indian Ocean .....
Quoting 745. FunnelVortex:


Why did they do that?
The 53rd is still doing occasional flights into typhoons.

Example, Megi in 2010 (which I think is the most spectacular storm of late).
Link

Quoting 749. VR46L:


When were they deactivated in the Indian Ocean .....


Not explicitly mentioning the Indian Ocean. However, there is Nari that poses a threat to the Philippines.
98L come come come
GFS doesnt develop 98..................
753. beell
Phailin
Kinda old. 0317Z

It is one of my favorite food groups: bacon, cheese, and buffet.

Vortex
I expect the parts of the storm not updated are moved/stay stationary relative to the storm center.
quite a stormy week midlantic up into the northeast....
12z Best Track for 98L.

AL, 98, 2013101012, , BEST, 0, 106N, 320W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S
Raining really hard with wind.I went outside and got slapped in the face with rain.
Good Morning. Looking at this mornings sheer chart (Link) and reading between the lines of the latest two from NHC:

POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW BEFORE UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL LEVEL WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED NEAR THE DISTURBANCE.

...I am thinking that sheer is going to prevent development into a storm looking at the bands of 40-60 knots of shear the wave is about to encounter.
98L looking better this morning.

92W looks like it is almost at TD status now.

Quoting 759. weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Looking at this mornings sheer chart (Link) and reading between the lines of the latest two from NHC:

POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW BEFORE UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL LEVEL WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED NEAR THE DISTURBANCE.

...I am thinking that sheer is going to prevent development into a storm looking at the bands of 40-60 knots of shear the wave is about to encounter.


in order to become a named storm, this system would have to stall or head south a little to avoid that mess.
Quoting 762. Torito:


in order to become a named storm, this system would have to stall or head south a little to avoid that mess.


Its moving pretty quickly in the trades so a stall is not going to happen; only possible chance for storm status is for a) the sheer to relax, b) the convection to reposition further to the south, or c) formation of an anti-cyclone above it to fight off the sheer and keep ventilating the system.........

Maybe a 50/50 shot as noted by NHC but the sheer is a formidable obstacle at the moment.
Quoting 763. weathermanwannabe:


Its moving pretty quickly in the trades so a stall is not going to happen; only possible chance for storm status is for a) the sheer to relax, b) the convection to reposition further to the south, or c) formation of an anti-cyclone above it to fight off the sheer and keep ventilating the system.........

Maybe a 50/50 shot as noted by NHC but the sheer is a formidable obstacle at the moment.


Yea, when that 60mph shear stream hits 98L, it will completely destroy it in a matter of hours if none of the things you stated happen.
It was previously the dry air, now it's the shear!! 2013 please end!!!!!
Fantasy land, but there is a cat 1 in the northern atlantic at gfs 300 hours.

GEM develops 98L into a potent system.

96 hour:(94E turns into a hurricane? Bottom left.)



120 hour:



156 hour: (note the TS heading up the east coast of the US, or a nor'easter.)



222 hour:
98L becomes a cat 3? the model wants to predict that..

769. SLU
This season's over man.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25 FORMS IN THE WEST PACIFIC.

Quoting 769. SLU:
This season's over man.



Not in the west pacific. ;)
TD 25 wind directions (still says invest, as it has not been updated for the MTCSWA.)


here is TC phailin.




moving more west here!!
Phailin has a nearly perfect LLC.

Quoting 741. allancalderini:
We as weather forecasters we know it but the millions in India don`t,They might believe this is only a cat 1 instead of a cat 4.I am so ashame of those organizations right now that words can`t describe it.
They are forecasting 95 knots, Strong Cat 2 at landfall. It does look much worse than that. They have time to get many people inland, I hope that's the plan.
First TD force winds located in 98l.

Quoting 773. Torito:
here is TC phailin.





Category 4 easily. Should EWRC before landfall though and be much weaker at landfall.
Quoting 778. yqt1001:


Category 4 easily. Should EWRC before landfall though and be much weaker though.


hopefully. if not, this thing could become extremely dangerous to any area even remotely near it.
780. VR46L
Quoting 775. Torito:
Phailin has a nearly perfect LLC.



I can't see any chance of it weakening before Landfall...



Is this really a cat 1 like wunderground says?

Quoting 760. Torito:
98L looking better this morning.

As others shear will destroy this one too.
783. VR46L
Quoting 765. CaribBoy:
It was previously the dry air, now it's the shear!! 2013 please end!!!!!


Hmmm Dry air ~still an issue

Quoting 716. VR46L:
Good Morning ... A beast!!!



It's eye looks to be contracting. Could still be strengthening as it heads into warmer Oceanic Heat Content and also it will be in diurnal maximum by our time this evening. So in about another 12 hours it could be even stronger than whatever it is at the moment, which is certainly stronger than what the JWTC is depicting.
So I asked this earlier, yet NOONE bothered to answer - meaning I will ask once more...

Why are both JWTC and IMD so SEVERELY underestimating the intensity of Phailin, even with high Dvorak numbers and a very impressive satellite presentation? And why is Wunderground listing it as a category 1?

Is it slow updates, is it lack of instruments, is it just bad science? Because this might cost many many lives if they don't do something about it soon...
Quoting 781. GeorgiaStormz:
Is this really a cat 1 like wunderground says?



No, it is easily a cat 3 right now.... I read earlier that wind speeds were detected in excess of 120kts, which is near 135 MPH.
Quoting 786. skycycle:
So I asked this earlier, yet NOONE bothered to answer - meaning I will ask once more...

Why are both JWTC and IMD so SEVERELY underestimating the intensity of Phailin, even with high Dvorak numbers and a very impressive satellite presentation? And why is Wunderground listing it as a category 1?

Is it slow updates, is it lack of instruments, is it just bad science? Because this might cost many many lives if they don't do something about it soon...


slow updates. :c
As of right now JWTC is calling for a landfall to the north of or very near Berhampur (pop. 355,823---2011 Census) and south of Cuttack & Bhubaneswar (pop. 606,007 & pop. 837,737---2011 Census) Source WIKIPEDIA




India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM PHAILIN (BOB04-2013)
14:30 PM IST October 10 2013
======================================

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm in East central Bay of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for North Andhra Pradesh and Orissa Coast

At 9:00 AM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Phailin over east central Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay near 15.0N 90.5E, about 800 km southeast of Paradip, 850 km east southeast of
Kalingapatnam, and 870 km east southeast of Visakhapatnam.

It would continue to move northwestwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast between Kalingapatnam and Paradip, close to Gopalpur (Odisha) by Friday/Saturday as a very severe cyclonic
storm with sustained winds of 95-100 knots.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 65 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The state of the sea is high around the center of the system. Phailin central pressure is 982 hPa.
Dvorak T4.5

12:00 PM UTC

75-85 knots from India Meteorological Department in the next advisory at 20:30 PM IST..
792. VR46L
Quoting 786. skycycle:
So I asked this earlier, yet NOONE bothered to answer - meaning I will ask once more...

Why are both JWTC and IMD so SEVERELY underestimating the intensity of Phailin, even with high Dvorak numbers and a very impressive satellite presentation? And why is Wunderground listing it as a category 1?

Is it slow updates, is it lack of instruments, is it just bad science? Because this might cost many many lives if they don't do something about it soon...



I have No Idea but RAMMB is not saying that

IO022013 - Tropical Cyclone (>=96 kt) PHAILIN

PHAILIN storm Page
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
Typhoon Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NARI (T1325)
21:00 PM JST October 10 2013
======================================

Sea East Of The Philippines

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Nari (980 hPa) located at 15.3N 126.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Storm Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center

Dvorak intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.0N 122.7E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
45 HRS: 15.9N 118.0E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
69 HRS: 15.9N 113.5E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30
21:00 PM JST October 10 2013
======================================

Near Marianas Islands

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1000 hPa) located at 13.7N 143.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 9 knots.

Dvorak intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 15.1N 141.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas Islands
Beautiful storm.


Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #6
TROPICAL STORM SANTI [NARI]
5:00 PM PhST October 10 2013
================================================= ==

Signal Warnings
===============

Signal Warning #1

Luzon Region
-------------

1. Catanduanes
2. Camarines Sur
3. Isabela
4. Aurora
5. Quezon
6. Polilio Islands
7. Camarines Norte

Additional Information
==========================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 5.0-20.0 mm per hour (moderate to intense) within the 400 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Residents of areas under Public Storm Warning Signal #1 are alerted againts possible flash floods and landslides.

Sea travel is risky over the eastern seaboards of northern Luzon and of Visayas.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
so when is this Hurricane Season Shutdown going to end?

Can't the dry air and the MJO negotiate a compromise already?!
Quoting 789. ILwthrfan:
As of right now JWTC is calling for a landfall to the north of or very near Berhampur (pop. 355,823 2011 Census) and south of Cuttack & Bhubaneswar (pop. 606,007 & pop. 837,737) Source WIKIPEDIA






It is running well south of that track, headed towards the town that starts with a V
Quoting 797. MisterPerfect:
so when is this Hurricane Season Shutdown going to end?

Can't the dry air and the MJO negotiate a compromise already?!
2015
shear and dry air might allow 98 to come further west thus making it a bigger threat. more impressive than 97 karen.

I wouldnt be surprised if phailin reaches cat-5 status.
Quoting 795. Torito:
Beautiful storm.


it comes with a price
Quoting 795. Torito:
Beautiful storm.


Looks huge, cant say for sure tho.
Quoting 800. islander101010:
shear and dry air might allow 98 to come further west thus making it a bigger threat. more impressive than 97 karen.


I hope!
It has been a very quiet year in the North Indian Ocean, and now we have Phailin. Don't let your guard down in the Atlantic Ocean until the season is officially over.



Severe Cyclonic Storm Phailin is a tropical cyclone currently threatening the eastern coast of India. Originating from an area of low pressure over the Andaman Sea in early October 2013, Phailin slowly consolidated into a depression on October 8. The depression gained forward momentum and attained gale-force winds on October 9 and was designated as Cyclonic Storm Phailin, becoming the second storm of the season. Phailin is now forecasted to intensify further in the next two days, and make landfall over north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coasts at peak strength. IMD says that it would hit India's Eastern Coast on the night of October 12.[1]

The name Phailin, meaning a Sapphire, was given by Thailand.

2013OCT10 133000 4.4 968.0 +0.0 74.6 4.3 4.8 7.4 1.7T/6hr ON OFF 1.64 -80.31 EYE 15 IR N/A 15.43 -90.09

Raw Initial Dvorak reading 7.5 from New Delphi ADT page
Just added Joe B. to twitter. I should have added him a long time ago. He knows how to forecast weather patterns and has great insight and understanding on climate change.
Quoting 808. GTstormChaserCaleb:
It has been a very quiet year in the North Indian Ocean, and now we have Phailin. Don't let your guard down in the Atlantic Ocean until the season is officially over.



Severe Cyclonic Storm Phailin is a tropical cyclone currently threatening the eastern coast of India. Originating from an area of low pressure over the Andaman Sea in early October 2013, Phailin slowly consolidated into a depression on October 8. The depression gained forward momentum and attained gale-force winds on October 9 and was designated as Cyclonic Storm Phailin, becoming the second storm of the season. Phailin is now forecasted to intensify further in the next two days, and make landfall over north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coasts at peak strength. IMD says that it would hit India's Eastern Coast on the night of October 12.[1]

The name Phailin, meaning a Sapphire, was given by Thailand.



more active than last year in the northern Indian Ocean.. first "BOB01" was in October.
I wonder when Dr.Masters will post a new blog on Phailin??? We could use the updated info.

Anyways, here is the TCFP for the next few days.

As often happens when a storm threatens a non-American area, there are appearing here a lot of comments stating that those poor people don't know what's about to hit them. In my opinion, that's an unfairly provincial view.

In reality, while India is definitely overcrowded, and has pockets of deep poverty*, it's also a very technologically progressive country, with internet usage far higher than some may be giving it credit for. (Have you ever wondered why so many of the technical support numbers you call are answered by an Indian-accented voice?) There are newspapers, and TV and radio stations, and internet cafes, and tens of millions of web-connected devices. Not to mention, people have lived in the area for thousands of years, and they've experienced a lot as a culture.

In short, then, Phailin isn't going to "sneak" up on them unawares. Yes, the infrastructure isn't up to western standards in many places, so that's going to cause problems, as it sadly always does. And the Indian weather service does seem to be underestimating Phailin's strength at the moment (though I think the official warning of a "VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM" says a lot). I'm not in any way saying that Phailin won't be a very damaging and, probably, deadly storm. But despite what some seem to believe, India overall isn't peopled by uneducated, disconnected, paleolithic primitives huddled up in mud shacks who believe that they can do nothing as they're solely at the mercy of the elephant-riding, thunderbolt-tossing deity Indra; they're not too ignorant to shelter themselves from the wind and rain when they know a storm is coming.

* - As does the United States.
815. beell

SW shear over and near 98L at left center of frame


Dry mid level air headed towards 98L on SW winds. Moderately strong easterly jet to the N of 98L does not help either.


98L still trying to lose its E/W elongated circulation


?
Quoting 808. GTstormChaserCaleb:
It has been a very quiet year in the North Indian Ocean


I wouldn't necessarily say so. Tropcial cylcone activity tends to happen often in October/November/December, when the monsoon retreats. Plus, the North Indian Ocean tends to have lower activty than that of the Atlantic.
Phailin may be nearing the upper ranges of the Category 4 threshold. That core is violent!

Beautiful cyclone. And a very dangerous cyclone.
Quoting 817. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Phailin may be nearing the upper ranges of the Category 4 threshold. That core is violent!

Beautiful cyclone. And a very dangerous cyclone.


...NARDA DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 129.1W
ABOUT 1330 MI...2140 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NARDA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.1 WEST. THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH...6
KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE REMNANT LOW IS FOECAST TO DISSIPATE IN DAY OR TWO.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NARDA HAS BECOME A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS AND HAS DEGENERATED INTO A
REMNANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...THE
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SPORADIC AND LESS PERSISTENT.
ALSO...THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN BELOW WHAT WOULD BE
EXPECTED FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW COULD STILL OCCASIONALLY
GENERATE A FEW PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...BECAUSE THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH SHEAR AND STABLE
AIR...IT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO WHILE IT DRIFTS
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
Quoting 813. Neapolitan:
As often happens when a storm threatens a non-American area, there are appearing here a lot of comments stating that those poor people don't know what's about to hit them. In my opinion, that's an unfairly provincial view.

In reality, while India is definitely overcrowded, and has pockets of deep poverty*, it's also a very technologically progressive country, with internet usage far higher than some may be giving it credit for. (Have you ever wondered why so many of the technical support numbers you call are answered by an Indian-accented voice?) There are newspapers, and TV and radio stations, and internet cafes, and tens of millions of web-connected devices. Not to mention, people have lived in the area for thousands of years, and they've experienced a lot as a culture.

In short, then, Phailin isn't going to "sneak" up on them unawares. Yes, the infrastructure isn't up to western standards in many places, so that's going to cause problems, as it sadly always does. And the Indian weather service does seem to be underestimating Phailin's strength at the moment (though I think the official warning of a "VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM" says a lot). I'm not in any way saying that Phailin won't be a very damaging and, probably, deadly storm. But despite what some seem to believe, India overall isn't peopled by uneducated, disconnected, paleolithic primitives huddled up in mud shacks who believe that they can do nothing as they're solely at the mercy of the elephant-riding, thunderbolt-tossing deity Indra; they're not too ignorant to shelter themselves from the wind and rain when they know a storm is coming.

* - As does the United States.


I think you have completely misjudged most comments here. The sentiment I am hearing is that they are seriously underestimating an incredibly dangerous storm and with hours ticking away for preparation. The fact that they have less infrastructure to deal with a major hurricane makes every hour even more important. If the NHC were toying around with people's lives like this, with a major hurricane 2 days away from hitting a heavy population you better believe people would be outraged and heads would be rolling.

(PS. India is a powerhouse in IT but this website it downright embarrassing... http://www.imd.gov.in/ )
Phailin is looking violent. Raw T#'s from CIMSS ADT are approaching T7.0. This won't be a good situation at all for India.
Thanks for the clarifications on Phailin, i guess just the IMD is very slow to respond to a very rapidly intensifying storm..

and "thanks" to #813 for pointing out the obvious :/ I don't think anyone with a common sense and travelling experience here imagined Indians like you described them - the problem is that very often even 60-70mph tropical storms cause hundreds of deaths and serious damage in India, don't want to imagine what a monster like Phailin might do. In any developed country warnings and evacuations would be flying, India just does not have the infrastructure to sustain that kind of response - it has nothing to do with Internet cafes or support for foreign companies...
New TD 25W first forecast track. Is forecast to be a typhoon in 72 hours.

Quoting 822. wxchaser97:
Phailin is looking violent. Raw T#'s from CIMSS ADT are approaching T7.0. This won't be a good situation at all for India.


At least it's a very small compact storm at the moment.

Initially it's stating that 50 knot or greater winds are within 20 NM of the center, although those are more likely closer to 100 knots. It's windfield is forecasted to grow in coverage.
Quoting 808. GTstormChaserCaleb:
It has been a very quiet year in the North Indian Ocean, and now we have Phailin. Don't let your guard down in the Atlantic Ocean until the season is officially over.



Severe Cyclonic Storm Phailin is a tropical cyclone currently threatening the eastern coast of India. Originating from an area of low pressure over the Andaman Sea in early October 2013, Phailin slowly consolidated into a depression on October 8. The depression gained forward momentum and attained gale-force winds on October 9 and was designated as Cyclonic Storm Phailin, becoming the second storm of the season. Phailin is now forecasted to intensify further in the next two days, and make landfall over north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coasts at peak strength. IMD says that it would hit India's Eastern Coast on the night of October 12.[1]

The name Phailin, meaning a Sapphire, was given by Thailand.



They are in one of their more active TC formation periods right now since the monsoons have come to an end. May and October are usually the times when most storms form.
Quoting 818. Torito:


This thing is growing by the second. I hope it weakens before landfall.
Quoting 828. hydrus:
This thing is growing by the second. I hope it weakens before landfall.


Hopefully it soon starts an eyewall replacement cycle. that should knock the system down a bit..
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM PHAILIN (BOB04-2013)
17:30 PM IST October 10 2013
======================================

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm in East central Bay of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha Coast

At 12:00 PM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Phailin over east central Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards slightly intensified further and now lays center near 15.5N 90.0E, about 650 km southeast of Paradip, 700 km southeast of Gopalpur, and 700 km east southeast of Kalingapatnam.

It would continue to move northwestwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast between
Kalingapatnam and Paradip, close to Gopalpur (Odisha) by Friday/Saturday as a very severe cyclonic storm with a sustained winds of 95-100 knots.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 70-75 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The state of the sea is high around the center.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 16.2N 88.2E - 85-90 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 17.0N 86.9E - 95-100 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 19.2N 85.0E - 95-100 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS: 21.2N 84.2E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
Quoting 830. HadesGodWyvern:
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM PHAILIN (BOB04-2013)
17:30 PM IST October 10 2013
======================================

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm in East central Bay of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha Coast

At 12:00 PM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Phailin over east central Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards slightly intensified further and now lays center near 15.5N 90.0E, about 650 km southeast of Paradip, 700 km southeast of Gopalpur, and 700 km east southeast of Kalingapatnam.

It would continue to move northwestwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast between
Kalingapatnam and Paradip, close to Gopalpur (Odisha) by Friday/Saturday as a very severe cyclonic storm with a sustained winds of 95-100 knots.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 70-75 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The state of the sea is high around the center.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 16.2N 88.2E - 85-90 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 17.0N 86.9E - 95-100 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 19.2N 85.0E - 95-100 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS: 21.2N 84.2E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)


I really think they are underestimating this system.
Who the heck is thinking Phailin is still that weak? IMD or JTWC? This is just dumb...
Quoting 830. HadesGodWyvern:
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM PHAILIN (BOB04-2013)
17:30 PM IST October 10 2013
======================================

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm in East central Bay of Bengal

Cyclone Warning for North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha Coast

At 12:00 PM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Phailin over east central Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards slightly intensified further and now lays center near 15.5N 90.0E, about 650 km southeast of Paradip, 700 km southeast of Gopalpur, and 700 km east southeast of Kalingapatnam.

It would continue to move northwestwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast between
Kalingapatnam and Paradip, close to Gopalpur (Odisha) by Friday/Saturday as a very severe cyclonic storm with a sustained winds of 95-100 knots.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 70-75 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The state of the sea is high around the center.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 16.2N 88.2E - 85-90 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 17.0N 86.9E - 95-100 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 19.2N 85.0E - 95-100 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS: 21.2N 84.2E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)


Oh, it's 3 minutes sustained winds from IMD... anyhow, still maybe little higher is what I'm thinking.
Even 75kt at 3 minutes would translate to a maybe a minimal category 2. Yeah right, not buying it.
I hope everyone looking modeles here.
837. beell
Not exactly ancient history here.

From Dr. M.

Only two Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones have hit India at hurricane strength since 2000. The most recent was Cyclone Thane, which hit Southeast India on December 30, 2011, as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Thane killed 48 people and did $250 million in damage. The most recent major tropical cyclone to hit India was the 1999 Odisha Cyclone, which hit Northeast India in the Indian state of Odisha (formerly called Orissa) near the city of Bhubaneswar as a Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds on October 29, 1999. The mighty storm, which had been at Category 5 strength with 160 mph winds and a 912 mb central pressure shortly before landfall, drove a storm surge of 26 feet (8 meters) onto the coast. The storm stalled just inland, dumping torrential rains on portions of India already saturated from the landfall of Category 4 Tropical Cyclone 04B just twelve days before. The catastrophe killed 9,658 people and left $2.5 billion in damage (1999 dollars), India's most expensive and fourth deadliest tropical cyclone in the past 100 years. Six other Indian tropical cyclones occurring before 1900 were deadlier; see wunderground's list of the 35 Deadliest Tropical Cyclones in World History. During the past two centuries, 42 percent of Earth's tropical cyclone-associated deaths have occurred in Bangladesh, and 27 percent have occurred in India (Nicholls et al., 1995.)
Quoting 822. wxchaser97:
Phailin is looking violent. Raw T#'s from CIMSS ADT are approaching T7.0. This won't be a good situation at all for India.
Quoting 829. Torito:


Hopefully it soon starts an eyewall replacement cycle. that should knock the system down a bit..


No signs of an Eyewall replacement cycle yet, but that can change quickly. If it were to progress through an eye wall replacement cycle, it would help distribute a greater wind field over a greater area, but the extreme maximum winds around the center would weaken and try to re-organize. If this storm were to go through this it would only increase the storms overall area and increase it's ability to affect more people are larger geographic area. You'd just be trading one evil for another.
Quoting 832. Torito:


I really think they are underestimating this system.


I just realized that IMD is doing 3 minutes sustained winds which is big difference from 1 minute sustained that NHC do. Still might be little low, though...
Quoting 829. Torito:


Hopefully it soon starts an eyewall replacement cycle. that should knock the system down a bit..

Well, it's certainly not going to be shear or dry air that'll weaken Phailian. The atmosphere is saturated and the only shear in the vicinity is due to Phailian's own outflow.

Quoting 836. hurricanes2018:
I hope everyone looking modeles here.




why? there not point and no need two 98L has dry air and shear
Quoting 827. Stoopid1:


They are in one of their more active TC formation periods right now since the monsoons have come to an end. May and October are usually the times when most storms form.
Actually compared to the last 3 seasons this one has been quiet up until this point.

2010: 8 depression/5 Cyclones/ 4 Severe Cyclone/ 2 Very Severe Cyclone



2011: 10 depression/ 6 deep depressions/ 2 Cyclonic Storms/ 1 Very Cyclonic Storm



2012: 5 depression/ 5 deep depressions/ 2 Cyclonic Storms



2013: 5 depressions/ 2 deep depressions/ 2 Cyclonic Storms/ 1 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

25W
Quoting 842. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Actually compared to the last 3 seasons this one has been quiet up until this point.

2010: 8 depression/5 Cyclones/ 4 Severe Cyclone/ 2 Very Severe Cyclone



2011: 10 depression/ 6 deep depressions/ 2 Cyclonic Storms/ 1 Very Cyclonic Storm



2012: 5 depression/ 5 deep depressions/ 2 Cyclonic Storms



2013: 5 depressions/ 2 deep depressions/ 2 Cyclonic Storms/ 1 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm



This year has been pretty inactive yes, I was merely referring to the months when more activity can be expected in a given season.
JTWC has upgraded Phailin to 100 KT and expects 135 KT at landfall

Link
I think 98L will become a TD later today.
Quoting 846. KingofNewOrleans:
JTWC has upgraded Phailin to 100 KT and expects 135 KT at landfall

Link
Another huge natural disaster unfolding before our eyes..I am very thankful that there is nothing like phailin affecting us.
Quoting 845. Stoopid1:


This year has been pretty inactive yes, I was merely referring to the months when more activity can be expected in a given season.
LOL well that was the point I was trying to make, everyone assumed I didn't know what I was talking about.
Quoting 842. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Actually compared to the last 3 seasons this one has been quiet up until this point.

2010: 8 depression/5 Cyclones/ 4 Severe Cyclone/ 2 Very Severe Cyclone



2011: 10 depression/ 6 deep depressions/ 2 Cyclonic Storms/ 1 Very Cyclonic Storm



2012: 5 depression/ 5 deep depressions/ 2 Cyclonic Storms



2013: 5 depressions/ 2 deep depressions/ 2 Cyclonic Storms/ 1 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

As opposed to a very anticyclonic one? :P
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #7
TROPICAL STORM SANTI
11:00 PM PhST October 10 2013
================================================= ==

Tropical Storm "SANTI" has slightly intensified as it continues to move west towards Aurora-Isabela area

At 10:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Santi [NARI] (982 hPa) located at 15.5N 125.9E or 410 km east of Baler, Aurora has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gustiness up to 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Signal Warnings
===============

Signal Warning #2

Luzon Region
-------------
1. Isabela
2. Aurora
3. Northern Quezon
4. Polilio Islands

Signal Warning #1

Luzon Region
-------------

1. Southern Cagayan
2. Kalinga
3. Abra
4. Mt. Province
5. Ilocos Sur
6. Ifugao
7. Beguet
8. La Union
9. Quirino
10. Nueva Vizcaya
11. Nueva Ecija
12. Pangasinan
13. Tarlac
14. Zambales
15. Bataan
16. Pampanga
17. Bulacan
18. Metro Manila
19. Rizal
20. Cavite
21. Laguna
22. Rest of Quezon
23. Camarines Provinces
24. Catanduanes

Additional Information
==========================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 5.0-20.0 mm per hour (moderate to intense) within the 500 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Residents of in low lying and mountainous areas under signal #2 & #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under signal #2 are alerted against storm surges.

Sea travel is risky over the Eastern seaboard of northern Luzon and of Visayas.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.
Quoting 850. 1900hurricane:
As opposed to a very anticyclonic one? :P


Under what conditions would an anticyclonic TC form?
The JTWC may have upgraded Phailin to a category 3 (100kt), but I still think that intensity is way to low. Phailin may be bordering on category 5 intensity right now (130kt perhaps)
Quoting 849. GTstormChaserCaleb:
LOL well that was the point I was trying to make, everyone assumed I didn't know what I was talking about.


I see, I guess I focused on the initial statement you made. The Atlantic is beyond it's most active time frame now as the North Indian is in theirs. Season ain't over by no means but the conditions are different from the two basins. The likelihood of seeing a strong system in the ATL like Phailin is low at this point,. Not zero, but low.
Quoting 852. FunnelVortex:


Under what conditions would an anticyclonic TC form?
It doesn't, I was just trying to point out that he left out the word "Severe" in the term "Very Severe Cyclonic Storm" in a somewhat humorous fashion.
Quoting 853. Ameister12:
The JTWC may have upgraded Phailin to a category 3 (100 KT), but I still think that intensity is way to low. Phailin may be bordering on category 5 intensity right now.


This is Andrew-type RI we are seeing.
Quoting 848. hydrus:
Another huge natural disaster unfolding before our eyes..I am very thankful that there is nothing like phailin affecting us.


Absolutely. Death and destruction NOT needed. (And we don't have the $$ right now. Has FEMA been cut?) Instead of trailers, they could pass out card board boxes?) Downsize! LOL j/k
According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T4.5. Intense to very intense convection is seen over east central bay and adjoining north Andaman sea islands and area between lat 13.0N to 16.5N and long 88.0E to 92.0E. The associated convection has increased gradually with respect to height and organization during past 3 hours. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -80C. The system is eye pattern. Eye is circular with diameter of about 15 km.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 75 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center. Phailin central pressure is 976 hPa

The upper tropospheric ridge runs along 18n and is providing poleward out flow in association with the anticyclonic circulation over central India. Hence upper level divergence is favorable for intensification. The low level convergence along with low level relative vorticity has increased during past 6 hours.. The sea surface temperature is about 28-29C and ocean thermal energy is about 80-100 kj/cm2. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind has decreased and is about 5-10 knots (low). The Madden-Jullian oscillation index is in phase 6 with amplitude greater than 1. Numerical weather prediction models suggest that Madden-Jullian oscillation would move to phase 7 during next 3 days

---
little more update from IMD from the Tropical Cyclone Outlook page.
Impressive number of records fell in So Cal yesterday:

... Lowest maximum temperature records broken or tied on Oct 09 2013 ...

Location new record old record period of record

Laguna Beach 65 66 in 1928 1928
Vista 63 67 in 1965 1957
Elsinore 62 64 in 1930 1897
Riverside 66 68 in 1931 1893
Ramona 61 68 in 1985 1974
alpine 56 62 in 1961 1952
El Cajon 64 69 in 1986 1979
big bear 42 48 in 1973 1960
Palomar Mountain 40 49 in 1949 1901
Palm Springs 72 76 in 1949 1906
thermal 76 78 in 1961 1950
Indio 73 74 in 1949 1894
Borrego 68 76 in 1973 1942

Quoting 805. hydrus:
what kind of map is that called, hydrus? It looks like I could use it to help here in the atlantic.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 858. HadesGodWyvern:
According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T4.5. Intense to very intense convection is seen over east central bay and adjoining north Andaman sea islands and area between lat 13.0N to 16.5N and long 88.0E to 92.0E. The associated convection has increased gradually with respect to height and organization during past 3 hours. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -80C. The system is eye pattern. Eye is circular with diameter of about 15 km.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 75 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center. Phailin central pressure is 976 hPa

The upper tropospheric ridge runs along 18n and is providing poleward out flow in association with the anticyclonic circulation over central India. Hence upper level divergence is favorable for intensification. The low level convergence along with low level relative vorticity has increased during past 6 hours.. The sea surface temperature is about 28-29C and ocean thermal energy is about 80-100 kj/cm2. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind has decreased and is about 5-10 knots (low). The Madden-Jullian oscillation index is in phase 6 with amplitude greater than 1. Numerical weather prediction models suggest that Madden-Jullian oscillation would move to phase 7 during next 3 days

---
little more update from IMD from the Tropical Cyclone Outlook page.
I'm trying to figure out in what universe this yields a T# of 4.5...

Quoting 823. skycycle:
...and "thanks" to #813 for pointing out the obvious :/ I don't think anyone with a common sense and travelling experience here imagined Indians like you described them - the problem is that very often even 60-70mph tropical storms cause hundreds of deaths and serious damage in India, don't want to imagine what a monster like Phailin might do. In any developed country warnings and evacuations would be flying, India just does not have the infrastructure to sustain that kind of response - it has nothing to do with Internet cafes or support for foreign companies...
You're very welcome; I'm always happy to help.

Now, "Support for foreign companies"? I'm not sure what that has to do with anything. But the point of my comment was that, thanks to a healthy broadcast- and internet-based communications infrastructure--of which, yes, internet cafes are a part--you can best believe that the people in India do indeed know what's coming, and the ones that don't soon will. Yes, 1999's Odisha cyclone killed thousands--but in terms of the internet, 1999 was pre-history; coverage is vastly greater, so new travels much farther and faster now.

As I said in my first statement, Phailin will almost certainly be a destructive and deadly storm. But no one should allow a biased western point-of-view to lead them into thinking people in India are clueless as to what's coming.
Quoting 821. sdswwwe:
I think you have completely misjudged most comments here.
Stick around here for a while; you'll see what I mean... ;-)
Quoting 859. canyonboy:
Impressive number of records fell in So Cal yesterday:

... Lowest maximum temperature records broken or tied on Oct 09 2013 ...

Location new record old record period of record

Laguna Beach 65 66 in 1928 1928
Vista 63 67 in 1965 1957
Elsinore 62 64 in 1930 1897
Riverside 66 68 in 1931 1893
Ramona 61 68 in 1985 1974
alpine 56 62 in 1961 1952
El Cajon 64 69 in 1986 1979
big bear 42 48 in 1973 1960
Palomar Mountain 40 49 in 1949 1901
Palm Springs 72 76 in 1949 1906
thermal 76 78 in 1961 1950
Indio 73 74 in 1949 1894
Borrego 68 76 in 1973 1942




Be careful I just got a ban for doubting the Global warming witch hunt
So, with the hurricane season almost over, is Florida in the clear? I see nothing at all forming to give Florida issues.