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98L in Eastern Atlantic no Threat; Typhoon Danas Takes Aim at Japan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:49 PM GMT on October 07, 2013

A tropical wave (Invest 98L) located about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands is headed west-northwest at about 10 mph. Satellite loops show that 98L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms and spin. The UKMET model develops the disturbance into a tropical depression late in the week, but the GFS and European models do not. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 20%, and 5-day odds of 30%. 98L's projected track will take it into the Central Atlantic, where it is unlikely to threaten any land areas. The models are not showing any other threat areas, and the large-scale Atlantic conditions favor below-average chances of tropical storm formation for the next two weeks. These odds may rise by the last week of October and first week of November, when the MJO has a decent chance changing to a phase that will bring upward air motion to the Atlantic.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of 98L over the far Eastern Atlantic, taken at approximately 8:30 am EDT on October 7, 2013. The southernmost Cape Verde Islands are visible at upper right. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Danas takes aim at Japan
In the Pacific, impressive Typhoon Danas reached Category 4 status with 145 mph winds this morning as it passed just north of Okinawa, becoming the third strongest tropical cyclone on Earth so far in 2013. Only Super Typhoon Usagi (160 mph winds) and Super Typhoon Utor (150 mph winds) have been stronger. Danas has peaked in strength, and satellite loops show that wind shear has begun eating into the intense thunderstorms on the southwest portion of Danas' eyewall. Danas is expected to weaken to Category 2 strength as it recurves to the northeast and passes very close to Nagasaki, Japan around 12 UTC on Tuesday.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Danas, taken at approximately 02 UTC on October 7, 2013. At the time, Danas had top winds of about 140 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Cyclone expected to form in the North Indian Ocean and threaten India
In India, where one of the longest monsoon seasons ever recorded is finally beginning to wane, atmospheric conditions over the North Indian Ocean are growing more conducive for the formation of tropical cyclones. The waters off the west coast of Thailand feature a large area of intense thunderstorms with a pronounced spin, as seen on satellite images. Both the GFS and European models predict that this disturbance will develop into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday, with the storm expected to track to the northwest and make landfall in Northeast India this weekend. This storm has the potential to intensify into a major storm capable of driving a dangerous storm surge onto the coast.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 498. kmanislander:


Forecasts have worked for a few years and then something happens and activity makes a big swing in the opposite direction. We saw this from quiet decades into the very active mid nineties up through 2006 etc.

We may be swinging back the other way now although I am curious as to what the remaining 7 weeks have in store. The way things are going there could be one or two ferocious systems like the very old days ( 1932 ).

Let's hope not but some serious heat still building in the tropics.



So true, fingers crossed!
Quoting 479. SLU:
A lot of models bringing it to hurricane strength.
Either way, I'm pretty sold that this is going to be the first year since 1994 without an Atlantic major hurricane.

But if one does form, it will be in the western Caribbean.
Quoting 503. KoritheMan:
Either way, I'm pretty sold that this is going to be the first year since 1994 without an Atlantic major hurricane.

But if one does form, it will be in the western Caribbean.

Meanwhile, Invest 98L becomes a Category 5 hurricane in the open central Atlantic.
Quoting 503. KoritheMan:
Either way, I'm pretty sold that this is going to be the first year since 1994 without an Atlantic major hurricane.

But if one does form, it will be in the western Caribbean.
Lorenzo and Melissa will be major hurricanes and I think the season will end there. 13/4/2.
Quoting 504. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Meanwhile, Invest 98L becomes a Category 5 hurricane in the open central Atlantic.

Don't forget the big blizzard impacting the Great Lakes in early to mid October. ;)
Quoting 505. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Lorenzo and Melissa will be major hurricanes and I think the season will end there. 13/4/2.
Caleb you forgot my Nestor :(
Quoting 454. washingtonian115:
I really do hope you get your destructive storm one day so you could learn your lesson.


I've been through several destructive storms and my house is still up! After cat 4 Luis, cat 3 Georges, and cat 4 Lenny... I only lost gutters. And absolutely no damage to the house were reported after cat 2 Jose, cat 1 Bertha, cat 1 Debby, cat 3 Omar and cat 3 Earl. You know, the building code is very good in St. Barths and you can't build a home that doesn't match with the security standards relative to hurricane and earthquake risks.

Believe me I know what a major hurricane looks like. In fact, all these strikes in the past have reinforced my passion for storms instead of killing it xD
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #45
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON DANAS (T1324)
9:00 AM JST October 8 2013
======================================

South Southwest Of Nagasaki Prefecture

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Danas (960 hPa) located at 30.4N 127.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 17 knots.

Storm Force Winds
================
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in east quadrant
120 NM from the center in west quadrant

Dvorak intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 36.4N 132.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Shimane Prefecture
48 HRS: 40.0N 142.5E - Extratropical Low Near Aomori Prefecture
Quoting 507. allancalderini:
Caleb you forgot my Nestor :(
Alright 14/5/3 for Allan, we end the season with 3 for 2013.
Quoting 510. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Alright 14/5/3 for Allan, we end the season with 3 for 2013.
:D you are the best,you rock man.

Quoting 508. CaribBoy:


I've been through several destructive storms and my house is still up! After cat 4 Luis, cat 3 Georges, and cat 4 Lenny... I only lost gutters. And absolutely no damage to the house were reported after cat 2 Jose, cat 1 Bertha, cat 1 Debby, cat 3 Omar and cat 3 Earl. You know, the building code is very good in St. Barths and you can't build a home that doesn't match with the security standards relative to hurricane and earthquake risks.

Believe me I know what a major hurricane looks like. In fact, all these strikes in the past have reinforced my passion for storms instead of killing it xD
That's actually kinda funny. I was talking to a buddy of mine at Walmart that moved from Puerto Rico to Louisiana, and he pretty much said the same thing about the building codes.
Quoting 504. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Meanwhile, Invest 98L becomes a Category 5 hurricane in the open central Atlantic.


Well, it does have a decent moisture field, but that trough will probably shear it.

Quoting 482. MAweatherboy1:

55kts is likely a bit generous at this point... not sure what happened with Narda today but something has interrupted it.



08/0000 UTC 14.4N 124.4W T3.0/3.5 NARDA -- East Pacific

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 2.8 2.8

Dry, stable air, the theme of 2013. But hey, it's not like it was forecast to become a major hurricane. It was only expected to become a mid-grade category 1 hurricane like most of the other EPAC hurricanes this year, pretty boring.
Quoting 506. wxchaser97:

Don't forget the big blizzard impacting the Great Lakes in early to mid October. ;)


I'd like to see that :)
Quoting 513. FunnelVortex:


Well, it does have a decent moisture field, but that trough will probably shear it.

It might make it to merit the name Lorenzo.
Narda is not looking healthy as it was yesterday; dry, stable mid-level air from the northwest has intruded the western circulation and wrapped around the core, causing the convection to wane. Narda has about 36 hours left to strengthen over warm waters and low shear environment but may not recover from the dry air issue, with relative humidity values forecasting to remain around 50% for the next few days. Starting to have my doubts of it becoming a hurricane.

Quoting 512. KoritheMan:

That's actually kinda funny. I was talking to a buddy of mine at Walmart that moved from Puerto Rico to Louisiana, and he pretty much said the same thing about the building codes.
Makes you wonder, Kori, shouldn't we be enforcing stronger building codes, and to think I almost became an architect, that would have been one of the things I researched before designing a house, something that would withstand a Category 5 hurricane, so people wouldn't have to evacuate.
519. JRRP

Quoting 508. CaribBoy:


I've been through several destructive storms and my house is still up! After cat 4 Luis, cat 3 Georges, and cat 4 Lenny... I only lost gutters. And absolutely no damage to the house were reported after cat 2 Jose, cat 1 Bertha, cat 1 Debby, cat 3 Omar and cat 3 Earl. You know, the building code is very good in St. Barths and you can't build a home that doesn't match with the security standards relative to hurricane and earthquake risks.

Believe me I know what a major hurricane looks like. In fact, all these strikes in the past have reinforced my passion for storms instead of killing it xD


A Cat 4? You are one brave soul.
Quoting 505. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Lorenzo and Melissa will be major hurricanes and I think the season will end there. 13/4/2.


Sugar high gotcha thinking of impending doom, but two majors? So you see 98L majoring? Should be fun to follow, the models have been jumping all over the place in intensity and path. Lot of dry air out in front of 98L and a WSW trajectory seems highly unlikely. A late season wave forming in the Caribbean forming into a problem could really happen though; a Chantal or Dorian with much much better conditions. One major could certainly rewrite what we remember the season for.
Quoting 520. FunnelVortex:


A Cat 4? You are one brave soul.
I'd go through a Category 5 as long as the structure I was in could withstand it.

Buuut... I'm in Louisiana, and anything above a marginal Category 3 could probably cause the **** to hit the fan fairly quickly.
Quoting 522. KoritheMan:

I'd go through a Category 5 as long as the structure I was in could withstanding it.

Buuut... I'm in Louisiana, and anything above a marginal Category 3 could probably cause the **** to hit the fan fairly quickly.


I wouldn't go through a Cat 3 without an armored truck, or good structure.
It looks like the most likely possible storm threat to the US will be from the west Caribbean, like Karen. As for the coming seasons the old adage "when in rains it pours." The question is not if, but when?
Quoting 515. FunnelVortex:


I'd like to see that :)

If South Dakota can do it, why not Michigan and Wisconsin?! I can't wait for the white stuff as that is one of my favorite weather phenomenons.

Quoting 523. FunnelVortex:


I wouldn't go through a Cat 3 without an armored truck, or good structure.
Well, I am a storm lover, but I don't think a lot of people that are really understand the implication of a serious storm.

Even in a Category 2, it doesn't take a lot of debris to cause serious hazard or personal injury to a person; even the tiniest of objects can fly at incredibly high speeds and be used as a cleverly-crafted projectile.

That's why, whenever I am out in a storm, I make sure to exercise extreme caution.
Watch this season have 4-5 more named systems and them all be majors. Wouldn't that be something.

Buuuuuuuuuut it's not gunna be. I had high hopes for Karen, and she REALLY tried, but conditions this year are just nightmarish for tropical cyclones.


Quoting 527. LostTomorrows:
Watch this season have 4-5 more named systems and them all be majors. Wouldn't that be something.

Buuuuuuuuuut it's not gunna be. I had high hopes for Karen, and she REALLY tried, but conditions this year are just nightmarish for tropical cyclones.

To be fair, October Gulf of Mexico storms approaching the US coast are expected to be terrorized by shear. Karen's stationary component subjected it to shear for longer than most such storms, however.
Quoting 513. FunnelVortex:


Well, it does have a decent moisture field, but that trough will probably shear it.

If you ignore the trough,it will go away.

Quoting 530. HurricaneAndre:
If you ignore the trough,it will go away.
Just like I ignored the shear and Karen gave me tropical storm force winds. :)
532. JRRP
Quoting 525. wxchaser97:

If South Dakota can do it, why not Michigan and Wisconsin?! I can't wait for the white stuff as that is one of my favorite weather phenomenons.


Every year I wishcast my dream "super blizzard", a massive cross-country storm system (winter storm in its top half, and severe thunderstorm producer in its south half) that comes in on the west coast and affects most of the lower 48 in its life span, and covers 40-50% of the lower 48 landmass at a time, and peaks around around my area bringing blizzard conditions, TS winds or gusts, and thundersnow before it winds down and dissipates off the coast of Maine or just north of Maine in Canada.

I know I'm asking for a ton, but I can dream, can I?
Quoting 526. KoritheMan:

Well, I am a storm lover, but I don't think a lot of people that are really understand the implication of a serious storm.

Even in a Category 2, it doesn't take a lot of debris to cause serious hazard or personal injury to a person; even the tiniest of objects can fly at incredibly high speeds and be used as a cleverly-crafted projectile.

That's why, whenever I am out in a storm, I make sure to exercise extreme caution.


I'm a storm lover too. But I wouldn't jump into a 110 MPH hurricane right away. I'd have to work up my courage gradually. Maybe someday when I become a stormchaser and get lots of experience first.
Quoting 533. FunnelVortex:


Every year I wishcast my dream "super blizzard", a massive cross-country storm system (winter storm in its top half, and severe thunderstorm producer in its south half) that comes in on the west coast and affects most of the lower 48 in its life span, and covers 40-50% of the lower 48 landmass at a time, and peaks around around my area bringing blizzard conditions, TS winds or gusts, and thundersnow before it winds down and dissipates off the coast of Maine or just north of Maine in Canada.

I know I'm asking for a ton, but I can dream, can I?

Of course you can, and I also have similar wants of a "super blizzard". At least it's harder for a blizzard to destroy/damage a house than a hurricane. Not minimizing the effects of a blizzard, but I rather go through a powerful blizzard than a major hurricane.
Quoting 530. HurricaneAndre:
If you ignore the trough,it will go away.


The trough may be a troll, but it's a tough one to get rid of.
Quoting 536. wxchaser97:

Of course you can, and I also have similar wants of a "super blizzard". At least it's harder for a blizzard to destroy/damage a house than a hurricane. Not minimizing the effects of a blizzard, but I rather go through a powerful blizzard than a major hurricane.


they both have their inherent dangers ..
Quoting 528. KoritheMan:

To be fair, October Gulf of Mexico storms approaching the US coast are expected to be terrorized by shear. Karen's stationary component subjected it to shear for longer than most such storms, however.


Yeah Karen was kind of like Debby in that regard.

I wonder if any future systems that try to spin up in the gulf will benefit from the slight lack of troughs this time of year. It seems like less than usual.
Quoting 536. wxchaser97:

Of course you can, and I also have similar wants of a "super blizzard". At least it's harder for a blizzard to destroy/damage a house than a hurricane. Not minimizing the effects of a blizzard, but I rather go through a powerful blizzard than a major hurricane.


Cool. We are on the same page then. Super blizzard buddies unite!

Blizzards can still do damage. Especially when you get one after another.

Last year we got no blizzard conditions, but we did get a few high end winter storms after another, and they did rip siding off of some of the houses in my neighborhood.

But yeah, it's nowhere near what a major hurricane can do.

Quoting 539. LostTomorrows:


Yeah Karen was kind of like Debby in that regard.

I wonder if any future systems that try to spin up in the gulf will benefit from the slight lack of troughs this time of year. It seems like less than usual.
I'm not comfortable saying something like that without looking at 500 mb height anomalies.

Memory is not a very reliable outlet for disseminating information about the weather, lol.
Quoting 532. JRRP:
98L is actually looking good.Maybe code red at 2AM.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NARDA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013
800 PM PDT MON OCT 07 2013

...NARDA NOT STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE OPEN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 125.0W
ABOUT 1140 MI...1835 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 080234
PWSEP4

TROPICAL STORM NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013
0300 UTC TUE OCT 08 2013

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X 1 2 10 25 34
TROP DEPRESSION 2 2 6 12 33 46 48
TROPICAL STORM 84 45 56 59 52 29 18
HURRICANE 14 54 38 28 5 1 X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 14 45 31 22 5 1 X
HUR CAT 2 1 7 5 4 X X X
HUR CAT 3 X 2 1 1 X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 55KT 65KT 60KT 55KT 40KT 30KT 25KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Earthquake off the florida coast.
Quoting 545. MeteorologistTV:
Earthquake off the florida coast.
Really,what size quake.
Quoting 545. MeteorologistTV:
Earthquake off the florida coast.


Didn't someone post a few weeks ago about a mag 7 earthquake about 200 years ago near there?

The earthquake
548. DFWjc
Quoting 545. MeteorologistTV:
Earthquake off the florida coast.


4.5
Time 2013-10-07 20:58:11 UTC-05:00
Location 30.241°N 74.178°W
Depth 13.4km
Quoting 548. DFWjc:


4.5
Time 2013-10-07 20:58:11 UTC-05:00
Location 30.241°N 74.178°W
Depth 13.4km
Imo Earthquakes are the ones stronger than 6.
Quoting 549. allancalderini:
Imo Earthquakes are the ones stronger than 6.


Here you go.

Bermuda Triangle Earthquake Triggered 1817 Tsunami

Quoting 549. allancalderini:
Imo Earthquakes are the ones stronger than 6.


Unless it's one of those 4's that strikes the East Coast of the US and freaks D.C. out. Closed the Washington Memorial for a year to do "repair" because of the earthquake, lol.

You probably get a good sampling of them though Allan, I bet you would find it comical to see how we react to the weak ones.
552. DFWjc
Quoting 549. allancalderini:
Imo Earthquakes are the ones stronger than 6.


Unless you've never been in one..LOL

In 7th grade i experienced my first one and it was a 3.2 in Washington, and my classmates laughed at me, because I just moved there from Texas. Before that I'd been a Hurricane(alicia), Tornado, Flood, and a near lightning strike. The desk just moved a bit and it was no longer than 15-20 secs long.
TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013
800 PM PDT MON OCT 07 2013

COMPARED TO 12 HOUR AGO...THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF NARDA LOOKS
SOMEWHAT DISHEVELED. HOWEVER...A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION HAS
PERSISTED NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE...AND A
T3.5/55 KT SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB SUPPORTS HOLDING THE
INTENSITY STEADY AT 55 KT. DESPITE THE DEGRADED CONVECTIVE
PATTERN...THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE.
HOWEVER...UW-CIMSS ANALYSES INDICATE THAT SOUTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL
SHEAR OF 10-15 KT IS UNDERCUTTING THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW REGIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 285/10 KT. NARDA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE IT NEARS
A WEAKNESS IN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS LOCATED ALONG 130W. AFTER
THAT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BUILD
BACK WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF NARDA BY DAYS 4 AND 5...WHICH FORCE
THE CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.

NARDA HAS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS OR SO. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-27C
SSTS IN 12-18 HOURS...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO
LESS THAN 5 KT BY 24 HOURS. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR NARDA TO MAKE ONE
MORE INTENSIFICATION EFFORT TO BECOME A HURRICANE IF IT CAN MIX OUT
THE STABLE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DESK THAT THE CYCLONE HAS INGESTED
TODAY. BY 36-48 HOURS...NARDA WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO INDUCE GRADUAL
WEAKENING. BY 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR SHOULD GENERATE EVEN GREATER WEAKENING...AND NARDA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5...IF NOT SOONER.

THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY FORECAST...AND IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
SHIPS/LGEM MODELS THROUGH 24 HOURS...AND THEN CLOSELY FOLLOWS THAT
GUIDANCE THERAFTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 14.6N 125.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 15.0N 126.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 15.5N 128.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 15.8N 129.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 15.9N 130.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 16.0N 131.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 16.0N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 15.9N 134.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Quoting 551. Astrometeor:


Unless it's one of those 4's that strikes the East Coast of the US and freaks D.C. out. Closed the Washington Memorial for a year to do "repair" because of the earthquake, lol.

You probably get a good sampling of them though Allan, I bet you would find it comical to see how we react to the weak ones.


That was a mag 5.8

This just in -- Winter Storm Atlas surpassed the all-time statewide single-snowstorm snowfall record in South Dakota. Previous record was 52"; Atlas dropped 58".
Weird... earthquake due east of Jacksonville, due north of San Sal?
Quoting 554. BaltimoreBrian:


That was a mag 5.8


They upgraded it? Huh. Still wimpy. Can't wait for the triplet 8.0s of New Madrid to come back. That'll be fun, I will make sure to be in an open plain away from any dead trees or structures when that happens.
Quoting 555. TropicalAnalystwx13:
This just in -- Winter Storm Atlas dropped the all-time statewide single-snowstorm snowfall record in South Dakota. Previous record was 52"; Atlas dropped 58".


Who's Atlas? You mean the mountains in North Africa?

Sheesh, kids these days, Winter Storm Atlas, who would make up such a silly thing anyways?

/sarcasm
Quoting 552. DFWjc:


Unless you've never been in one..LOL

In 7th grade i experienced my first one and it was a 3.2 in Washington, and my classmates laughed at me, because I just moved there from Texas. Before that I'd been a Hurricane(alicia), Tornado, Flood, and a near lightning strike. The desk just moved a bit and it was no longer than 15-20 secs long.

I freaked out when the East Coast quake happened a few years ago but the afterwards, I was so excited that I was actually in an earthquake :P Its nothing tho, One side of my family is from California, so they just laughed at us :)
Astro here's some footage from inside the Washington monument during that quake. It was a pretty big deal--the primary water main into the Pentagon snapped and caused a huge mess.

Quoting 527. LostTomorrows:
Watch this season have 4-5 more named systems and them all be majors. Wouldn't that be something.

Buuuuuuuuuut it's not gunna be. I had high hopes for Karen, and she REALLY tried, but conditions this year are just nightmarish for tropical cyclones.

You are just not wishcasting hard enough. I wanted Karen to get to Tampa, and it did, eventually. I just did not have enough support here at home. Look to the gargoyle face in the swirl headed to Ireland as your inspiration. Probably only visible in infrared.
562. SLU
Quoting 508. CaribBoy:


I've been through several destructive storms and my house is still up! After cat 4 Luis, cat 3 Georges, and cat 4 Lenny... I only lost gutters. And absolutely no damage to the house were reported after cat 2 Jose, cat 1 Bertha, cat 1 Debby, cat 3 Omar and cat 3 Earl. You know, the building code is very good in St. Barths and you can't build a home that doesn't match with the security standards relative to hurricane and earthquake risks.

Believe me I know what a major hurricane looks like. In fact, all these strikes in the past have reinforced my passion for storms instead of killing it xD


muhahahahaha
Quoting 557. Astrometeor:


They upgraded it? Huh. Still wimpy. Can't wait for the triplet 8.0s of New Madrid to come back. That'll be fun, I will make sure to be in an open plain away from any dead trees or structures when that happens.


Have been overdue for a 6-7 for the New Madrid fault for almost two decades now. An eight or higher would lead to hundreds of thousands of deaths through a wide area where major cities are not built to withstand large quakes. Would be a multi-trillion dollar disaster that would bring the world's economy to a halt. People would be on their own for weeks and a response would take months and months. So much of our highway infrastructure would be shut down and interstate commerce would not flow. Lets hope we don't see another quake there strong enough to turn the Mississippi backwards in our lifetimes. Would be unthinkable.
Checkout this new weather channel.
Link
Link
Quoting 551. Astrometeor:


Unless it's one of those 4's that strikes the East Coast of the US and freaks D.C. out. Closed the Washington Memorial for a year to do "repair" because of the earthquake, lol.

You probably get a good sampling of them though Allan, I bet you would find it comical to see how we react to the weak ones.
Not really 5.5 are really common in all Central America I don`t even move from place even though my mom is the one that goes crazy that we should leave the house because it might fall blablabla.6 ,7 and 8 magnitude though usually occur in the pacific coasts.The last big one and I mean big one 7,3 was in 2009 one month before the coup.
Quoting KoritheMan:

That's actually kinda funny. I was talking to a buddy of mine at Walmart that moved from Puerto Rico to Louisiana, and he pretty much said the same thing about the building codes.
IN Puerto Rico most of the houses can stand a Cat 4 or 5, built with very high standards of constructions. Our problems are mostly due to land slides and constructions built in flooding areas...
Quoting 560. BaltimoreBrian:
Astro here's some footage from inside the Washington monument during that quake. It was a pretty big deal--the primary water main into the Pentagon snapped and caused a huge mess.


Hmm, considering Brian is military...maybe I should stop toying with him before he gets mad...even though I'm still laughing at D.C. about that earthquake.

I had a 4.5 that had an epicenter over near St. Louis once, woke Mom, Dad, and I all up at 3:30 AM. Annoying little bugger, rattling the windows. Took me a second to realize that it was an earthquake, at first I thought it was those jerks from Fort Campbell flying real low again with their jets and helicopters.
Temperatures across the United States

(Linked because the image is massive!)
That's why I love Wisconsin, relatively small tornado risk is the biggest threat. Earthquakes don't happen here, tsunamis are blocked by two mountain ranges. Only downside is that Illinois has more nuclear plants than any other state and Wisconsin is surrounded by them in Minnesota and SD too.
What do you make TA13 of all these models taking 98L to hurricane strength? Have they completely lost it?
Quoting 568. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Temperatures across the United States

(Linked because the image is massive!)


That is massive, considering I'm quoting this and still waiting for it to load, but weatherbell makes some nice temps maps, I like them. Wow, image is so big it takes a second for it to come back if I look away for a moment at another tab.

Why is SD surrounded by warmth? Kinda looks funny there. Snow keeping the temps artificially (wanted to say naturally, but that doesn't make sense) low?
Quoting 571. Astrometeor:


That is massive, considering I'm quoting this and still waiting for it to load, but weatherbell makes some nice temps maps, I like them. Wow, image is so big it takes a second for it to come back if I look away for a moment at another tab.

Why is SD surrounded by warmth? Kinda looks funny there. Snow keeping the temps artificially (wanted to say naturally, but that doesn't make sense) low?

Yes.

Quoting 570. Tribucanes:
What do you make TA13 of all these models taking 98L to hurricane strength? Have they completely lost it?

Probably. Maybe a decent tropical storm out of this though.
Quoting CaribBoy:


+1000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 * 10e10000000000000000000

YES ME TOO!
Agree, me three... I mean, me too....
Quoting 556. BahaHurican:
Weird... earthquake due east of Jacksonville, due north of San Sal?
Not so weird. The great New Madrid earthquake was felt in Jacksonville, one in St Augustine much later and a small one again in Jacksonville and no where else at the time. Captiva Island had its moment in 1948? I have heard locals tell of a mini tsunami that washed up Venice avenue in the 50's and went past U.S. 41 before receding, but have not researched it. I have seen B/W pictures of early electric poles and a horse and buggy sunk into the ground. Liquefaction is the main threat because very little of the surface is close to any kind of hard pack. Most of the state is sand with water underneath. Shake vigorously and you get quicksand. It would not take a big tremor to kill everyone. I imagine that would be true for a lot of the islands south of us too.
Quoting 576. GatorWX:

Nice little low headed this direction.
Quoting 550. BaltimoreBrian:


Here you go.

Bermuda Triangle Earthquake Triggered 1817 Tsunami



That's a scary picture.

One bad thing about Florida. Not too many places to run to.
Quoting 557. Astrometeor:


They upgraded it? Huh. Still wimpy. Can't wait for the triplet 8.0s of New Madrid to come back. That'll be fun, I will make sure to be in an open plain away from any dead trees or structures when that happens.


I felt that earthquake, though... and I'm like 500 miles from DC.
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening all

2013 continues as a very odd season with 98L as an anomaly in the far eastern Atlantic. A system like this would normally be seen in the CV window between August 1st and the end of September generally speaking.

The models have no idea what is going on with 98L and the later into the season we get the harder it is for them to forecast what late season systems may do.

Interesting to watch but the odds of making it all the way to 60W below 20 N are very low based upon climo.
Agree, the only thing to achieve 60w, is if it continues weak, to avoid feeling the ULLs and following in a low latitude tracking, mostly due west....dangerous hurricane, josé, October 17, 1999, did it....
Quoting 580. Bluestorm5:


I felt that earthquake, though... and I'm like 500 miles from DC.


East Coast allows for easy transfer of energy, remember the Great New Madrid Earthquakes rang the bells on the East Coast at the time. Compare that against a Californian quake, the energy dissipates rather quickly with regards to distance over there.
I want Lorenzo to become a major hurricane.

Quoting 582. Astrometeor:


East Coast allows for easy transfer of energy, remember the Great New Madrid Earthquakes rang the bells on the East Coast at the time. Compare that against a Californian quake, the energy dissipates rather quickly with regards to distance over there.
I know. Btw, I actually feared an New Madrid earthquake more than tornadoes growing up in St. Louis.
Quoting 582. Astrometeor:


East Coast allows for easy transfer of energy, remember the Great New Madrid Earthquakes rang the bells on the East Coast at the time. Compare that against a Californian quake, the energy dissipates rather quickly with regards to distance over there.
Eventually over time the Pacific Ocean is going to shrink and the Atlantic Ocean is going to expand and become the active margin, which will make Earthquakes more prevalent in the Atlantic Ocean.
Quoting 467. FunnelVortex:


But below average seasons doesn't mean to let your guard down. Storms like Andrew and Camille happened in below-average seasons.


Camille was during 1969... which was far from a below active season. I believe there were 19 total storms (which includes all of the unnamed ones).
Quoting 583. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I want Lorenzo to become a major hurricane.



Yes please, I only need one major to meet my 8-4-1 season expectations.
I go take a 3-hour nap this afternoon and this is what I miss:

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #46
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON DANAS (T1324)
12:00 PM JST October 8 2013
======================================

West Southwest Of Nagasaki Prefecture

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Danas (965 hPa) located at 32.0N 127.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 16 knots.

Storm Force Winds
================
70 NM from the center in the southwest quadrant
50 NM from the center in the northeast quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Dvorak intensity: T4.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 36.9N 133.3E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Tottori Prefecture
45 HRS: 40.0N 142.5E - Extratropical Low Near Aomori Prefecture
Quoting 587. Astrometeor:


Yes please, I only need one major to meet my 8-4-1 season expectations.



you are way pass 8-4-1 we are at 10-2-0 and one TD
Quoting 562. SLU:


muhahahahaha


Lol, so......... I'm still waiting for my storm!! Too bad that stupid 98L doesn't want to pay me a visit :/
Which one would you rather face? 8.0 quake or EF5 tornado?

I'll say 8.0 quake...

Quoting 573. HuracanTaino:
Agree, me three... I mean, me too....


XD I know ;-)))
595. SLU
Quoting 583. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I want Lorenzo to become a major hurricane.



Maybe the 2019 hurricane season edition. :)
Quoting 591. Tazmanian:



you are way pass 8-4-1 we are at 10-2-0 and one TD


Do I have to go find your original numbers Taz?
598. SLU
Quoting 592. CaribBoy:


Lol, so......... I'm still waiting for my storm!! Too bad that stupid 98L doesn't want to pay me a visit :/


We're looking at August 2014 before the next genuine threat may arrive ...
599. vis0
CREDIT:erau.edu   SUBJECT: GoMx-Baha PERIOD: 201310-07'2130_-08'0230  IMG TYPE: day/night.from erau.edu,

My
filter created the yellows/reds. Those colours represent what would be the visible clouds under daylight
 imagery. The milky (white) are high COOLER cliouds with little
moisture.
Quoting 593. Bluestorm5:
Which one would you rather face? 8.0 quake or EF5 tornado?

I'll say 8.0 quake...



While they can predict severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornados... earthquakes, however, remain unpredictable :S

For that reason, I think earthquakes are more dreadful than any weather-related disaster.
Blue, an EF5 is not survivable unless your in a bunker or somehow miraculously survive. So I'd have to go with 8.0 earthquake, but that's all about where you are when it happens; whether or not you survive. An EF5 would be terrifying beyond belief though, no thanks.
Quoting 597. Astrometeor:


Do I have to go find your original numbers Taz?


Taz's original numbers: 17-10-5.

Link
Quoting 599. vis0:
CREDIT:erau.edu   SUBJECT: GoMx-Baha PERIOD: 201310-07'2130_-08'0230  IMG TYPE: day/night.from erau.edu,

My
filter created the yellows/reds. Those colours represent what would be the visible clouds under daylight
 imagery. The milky (white) are high COOLER cliouds with little
moisture.


I think there is still some question whether the BOC disturbance is PAC or ATL. It seems to be jumping backing forth between the basins.
Quoting 569. Tribucanes:
That's why I love Wisconsin, relatively small tornado risk is the biggest threat. Earthquakes don't happen here, tsunamis are blocked by two mountain ranges. Only downside is that Illinois has more nuclear plants than any other state and Wisconsin is surrounded by them in Minnesota and SD too.


Wisconsin is no Oklahoma that's for sure, but I wouldn't downplay the tornado threat there by any means.
Quoting 593. Bluestorm5:
Which one would you rather face? 8.0 quake or EF5 tornado?

I'll say 8.0 quake...

I would prefer the quake.Tornadoes scare me to death,meanwhile Earthquakes I have feel them and even though they are scary I am more scare of a possible tsunami as I live near the coast.
Sorry double post.
Quoting 595. SLU:


Maybe the 2019 hurricane season edition. :)
Going to make a run at it, in the north atlantic too.



Might look something like Florence of '94:

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
5:30 AM IST October 8 2013
======================================

The low pressure area over north Andaman sea and adjoining Tenasserim coast now lies over north Andaman sea and neighborhood.

It would concentrate into depression during next 24 hours and move slowly in west ­northwesterly direction initially.
609. SLU
Quoting 607. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Going to make a run at it, in the north atlantic too.



I find it hard to believe though
Quoting 609. SLU:


I find it hard to believe though
Now you believe it will be a ts?:D
Quoting 608. HadesGodWyvern:
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
5:30 AM IST October 8 2013
======================================

The low pressure area over north Andaman sea and adjoining Tenasserim coast now lies over north Andaman sea and neighborhood.

It would concentrate into depression during next 24 hours and move slowly in west ­northwesterly direction initially.
Guys this wouldn't be pretty for the East Central coast of India.



Quoting 612. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Guys this wouldn't be pretty for the East Central coast of India.





Does that say 957?
Final: Dodgers 4, Braves 3

Juan Uribe put the Dodgers ahead in the eighth inning with a two-run homer. Carl Crawford has gone deep twice for Los Angeles!!!!
Quoting 613. Astrometeor:


Does that say 957?
yea
Quoting 613. Astrometeor:


Does that say 957?
Yep, looking for a satellite image over that region.
Quoting 604. wxgeek723:


Wisconsin is no Oklahoma that's for sure, but I wouldn't downplay the tornado threat there by any means.


absolutely, have been numerous EF5's and Wisconsin is in the top ten for most tornadoes nationally.
Quoting 616. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Yep, looking for a satellite image over that region.


Quoting 615. Bluestorm5:
yea


Whelp, let's hope the GFS is modeling after the CMC. If that were to come true, heh.
There it is, mark 93 East, 13 North.

invest 98L will be still at 40% at 2am
Quoting 619. Astrometeor:




Whelp, let's hope the GFS is modeling after the CMC. If that were to come true, heh.
This is the latest CMC:

Well I'm off to bed...goodnight everyone.
Quoting 621. hurricanes2018:
invest 98L will be still at 40% at 2am


Yeah, it's slowly getting organized but hasn't changed much in the past few hours. Interesting to see if d-max helps.


image from Thailand Meteorological Department
Quoting 623. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Well I'm off to bed...goodnight everyone.


Good night Caleb, I shall be taking my leave in a few minutes as well.
Quoting 620. GTstormChaserCaleb:
There it is, mark 93 East, 13 North.


Ditto


Likelihood of development, courtesy of JTWC.
Good night everyone.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE OCT 8 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IT HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5
MPH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE WEEK...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AND ELONGATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 10
MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
Quoting Astrometeor:


Do I have to go find your original numbers Taz?

Ruh-oh. The Taz doesn't like being confronted with what he actually wrote. :-)
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON OCT 7 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM NARDA...LOCATED WELL TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS LOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH.
All this talk of earthquakes in and around Washington, D.C. brings a bit of trivia to mind.

Here's a curious fact that you don't know.

A day or two after that earthquake, photos showing plaster underneath the Capitol Rotunda appeared on YouTube, and the Internet, but they vanished with a day or two, never to be seen since.

Where did they go? I've been looking for them ever since ... can't find them.
AL, 98, 2013100806, , BEST, 0, 94N, 268W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 180, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Narda is down to 50 kts.

EP, 14, 2013100806, , BEST, 0, 150N, 1250W, 50, 999, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 1011, 180, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NARDA, M,

Quoting 634. Civicane49:
Narda is down to 50 kts.

EP, 14, 2013100806, , BEST, 0, 150N, 1250W, 50, 999, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 1011, 180, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NARDA, M,
Didn't the 0z ATCF file say the same thing? Although I could be mistaken.
Quoting 635. KoritheMan:

Didn't the 0z ATCF file say the same thing? Although I could be mistaken.


No.

EP, 14, 2013100800, , BEST, 0, 148N, 1239W, 55, 998, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 1009, 200, 20, 65, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NARDA, M
The year so far in weather....



Quoting Civicane49:




Haven't most of the models this year have said that the storm will reach cat 1 status... How many have we had so far? 2
Quoting 641. AussieStorm:


Haven't most of the models this year have said that the storm will reach cat 1 status... How many have we had so far? 2


If I remembered correctly, majority of the models this year, like the CMC and GFS, had predicted some storms reaching hurricane strength. But so far, we only had two hurricanes: Humberto and Ingrid.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NARDA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 08 2013

...NARDA WEAKENS AND NO LONGER FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 125.4W
ABOUT 1140 MI...1835 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 08 2013

A SERIES OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER OF NARDA IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A SMALL AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE STILL
55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALTHOUGH THE FINAL T-NUMBER FROM SAB HAS
FALLEN TO 35 KT. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ADT AND SATCON
ESTIMATES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN ARE AROUND 45 KT. BASED
ON THESE NUMBERS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT...BUT
THIS COULD STILL BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WAS REQUIRED IN THIS
ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW FOR
ANOTHER 36 HOURS...NARDA APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING A BIT DUE TO A
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. AS THE STORM CONTINUES
WESTWARD...IT WILL BE RUNNING INTO AN EVEN DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR MASS...AND THE PROSPECTS FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION HAVE
DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. IN ADDITION...THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
THAT A MID-LEVEL BLOCKING RIDGE WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF NARDA
IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND CAUSE THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS TO
DECOUPLE. AS A RESULT...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE NO LONGER SHOWS ANY
STRENGTHENING. THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS AN
INTENSITY OF 50 KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR
REMAINS LOW...BUT THEN SHOWS RELATIVELY FAST WEAKENING TO REMNANT
LOW STATUS BY DAY 4.

NARDA IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE...AND
ITS CURRENT MOTION IS 290/11 KT. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...LEAVING NARDA IN A COL REGION TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH
AND BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONES TO ITS EAST AND WEST. THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT STEERING FLOW WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW
DOWN AND LIKELY DRIFT WESTWARD BY 48 AND 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT
TIME...NARDA WILL BE WEAKENING...AND THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD
ACCELERATE WESTWARD WITHIN THE TRADES BY DAYS 4 AND 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 15.3N 125.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 15.7N 126.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 16.1N 128.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 16.3N 129.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 16.3N 129.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 16.3N 130.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 16.0N 132.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/0600Z 15.5N 135.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG
I'm heading off for the night. Good night all.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION BOB04-2013
11:30 AM IST October 8 2013
========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, The depression over northern Andaman Sea moved westward at 9 knots during the past 3 hours and now lays center near 12.0N 95.5E, about 300 km east northeast of Port Blair (Andaman Island), 1350 km east southeast of Paradip (India), 1470 km east southeast of Visakhapatnam (India)

The system would intensify into a deep depression and further into a cyclonic storm by tomorrow. It would move west northwestward towards northern Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast during the next 72 hours.
The storm brewing in the Indian Ocean has an ominous feel to it... I know this is not the MOST discussed basin around here, but maybe someone can share more knowledge on this - how strong can this thing get and what might the potential damage be?

The strongest cyclone ever recorded in the NI Ocean was the 1999 Odisha cyclone, which tracked just north of what is predicted for our current storm. It reached a minimum pressure of 912mb and 1-min sustained winds of 160mph, becoming the first disturbance ever to be designated "Super Cyclonic Storm" in the basin. On October 29 it struck the state of Odisha, stalling about 30mi inland, killing an estimated 15,000 and causing almost 5 billion $ in damage.

And while that may be a far-fetched scenario, the basin has not had a Super Cyclonic Storm since Gonu in June 2007 (920mb, 165mph 1-min winds), and hasn't even seen a Very Strong Cyclonic Storm since Thane in December 2011 (969mb, 105mph 1-min winds).
carib boys lucky day?
Good Morning Folks!.....................
Quoting 649. LargoFl:
Good Morning Folks!.....................
Morning Largo, and all... looks like the NW Bahamas may have some rain today.

98L fish stormm if it develops
lets all sit in here 24/7 anylizing 98L that wont come near anyone or plain ol fizzle out... well it looks like it will do this it looks like it will do that..... oh brother here we go again
Quoting 648. islander101010:
carib boys lucky day?


Nope :( No rain all night, only high clouds this AM...

BORING!!!!!!!!
98L.. is done.
Morning all!


657. IKE
Quoting CaribBoy:
98L.. is done.
And so is this season.

Totals 11-2-0. Oops...plus one TD. 53 days to go. Day 130 of the decoupled season.
90W is bad news for India. Let's hope that the GFS is completely wrong, like it was with Karen, in regards to intensity!


Almost closed.
It was supposed to be a year to rewrite the record books
We didn't get our first cane until September
Now all of the forecasters are getting funny looks
2013's failed forecast is all we'll remember
Quoting 661. PanhandleChuck:
It was supposed to be a year to rewrite the record books
We didn't get our first cane until September
Now all of the forecasters are getting funny looks
2013's failed forecast is all we'll remember
Last year too.
didnt karen start off the coast of s america? looks like another suspect area this morning.
didnt you get 25 inches from the first 97 panhandler? not enough for you?
Quoting HurricaneAndre:

Almost closed.
Quoting 663. islander101010:
didnt karen start off the coast of s america? looks like another suspect area this morning.


LOL, not another storm, it took me so long to clean up that lawn chair that blew over in my back yard.
Quoting 655. CaribBoy:
98L.. is done.

Looks better organized to me..

The Most Detailed Visuals of Hurricane Sandy, Revealed


In this 3-D map of potential temperature, relatively cool air wraps around Sandy's core near the surface (purple and blue colors), while air parcels gain heat from moisture condensing into clouds and precipitation as they ascend through the storm’s core. Credit: UCAR.
Quoting 667. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Looks better organized to me..

He wans it to come to him and it looks like it won't...
Henry Margusity Fan Club
Some can argue that the low pressure off the Southeast coast is part of Karen. Gales along the beaches today from NC to SC.
671. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 8 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...AND IT HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE MOVING SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE WEEK
...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AND ELONGATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 5
TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
remember the first 97 in the gulf? sure looked like that one wanted to develop. yet localized areas on the north eastern gulf coast received over 20 inches. thats weather.
674. beell
Quoting 667. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Looks better organized to me..



May be consistently plagued by a moderate to strong upper level southern branch undulating across the Atlantic this week. The outlook could be overly optimistic.
The Complete Hurricane Season up to 10/05/2013:

676. beell

10/08 850 mb relative vorticity
677. SLU
Quoting 610. allancalderini:
Now you believe it will be a ts?:D


Well this morning 98L looks very sick after so much hard work in the last couple of days. It's going to have to start all over again. The dry air Gods have eaten it alive.

There's virtually nothing there. I was never really enthusiastic about this system.



Quoting 674. beell:


May be consistently plagued by a moderate to strong upper level southern branch undulating across the Atlantic this week. The outlook could be overly optimistic.

Yeah, it probably won't be long-lived nor strong. The ECMWF ensembles bring it to tropical cyclone status in 24 hours.

Low-pressure center seems better defined this morning.
Post 667 please..
Quoting 667. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Looks better organized to me..

It does look organized on the Vis Satellite. The GFS still develops 98L into something by the weekend! It needs more T-storms to get going. Lorenzo? Or will our next named storm be forming south of Bermuda? Late-season storms are ALWAYs interesting!
Nice Animation CycloneOZ!
It does an AMAZING job of showing the summer daily storm cycles over Florida and the Yucatan. You can see why June set some wet weather records.
682. beell
Quoting 678. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, it probably won't be long-lived nor strong. The ECMWF ensembles bring it to tropical cyclone status in 24 hours.

Low-pressure center seems better defined this morning.


Well, it's all we got in ATL basin for now. GFS keeps a very slow moving, well defined circulation throughout. Something does not look right in that model between lower and upper levels.
Quoting 666. PanhandleChuck:


LOL, not another storm, it took me so long to clean up that lawn chair that blew over in my back yard.
LOL, that is the most damage I have heard that Karen did! LoL. Also, all the cancelled events along the Gulf Coast.
that was cool! I could find the exact parking lot and bus stop where that video was taken Aussie.
Quoting 661. PanhandleChuck:
It was supposed to be a year to rewrite the record books
We didn't get our first cane until September
Now all of the forecasters are getting funny looks
2013's failed forecast is all we'll remember


Last year they said below normal season. Look what happened.

I've learned to always trust the opposite of what the NHC or CPC says. Because you won't believe all the times they got the winter outlook wrong, and now the hurricane forecasts too.
It seems that my prediction of not seeing another 2010 in the MDR came true.More than likely "Lorenzo" will be another weak short lived storm.
Quoting 681. biff4ugo:
Nice Animation CycloneOZ!
It does an AMAZING job of showing the summer daily storm cycles over Florida and the Yucatan. You can see why June set some wet weather records.


As of this date, total number of images stands at approximately 6,000.

I have to download each image separately. There is no batch download function to obtain the imagery. Depending on server speed, that can take anywhere from 10-25 seconds per image.

After 21 days on the server, images are deleted from the server.

As far as can tell, I am the only one on the planet taking the time and effort to produce animations from GOES East imagery.

I have been told the animations are very important, so I continue to produce them...but I wish someone else became dedicated to create such projects so I could use my time for other things.

The amount of work is so great, I am not surprised that even NASA cannot provide these long playing animations.
Quoting 675. CycloneOz:
The Complete Hurricane Season up to 10/05/2013:



Such an epic season
Quoting 689. FunnelVortex:


Such an epic season


Yeah...these epic seasons have been going on for a few years now! :\
Very saturated here NW of Orlando this morning as nearly 3" of rain since Sunday has fallen. Ground just can't take anymore around here I literally have a river running thru my neighborhood now which is normally a a small creek.

Storm moving in yesterday.
Quoting 690. CycloneOz:


Yeah...these epic seasons have been going on for a few years now! :\


The previous seasons had majors though.
Had to use the heater in my truck this morning. 52 and bright sunshine.
Quoting 693. PanhandleChuck:
Had to use the heater in my truck this morning. 52 and bright sunshine.


Used your heater when it was 52?
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's a lovely 55 degrees with a wind chill of 53. The dogs didn't want to come back in.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: shrimp and spinach omelet, steak, eggs and hash browns, whole wheat pancakes with fruit sauce , egg burritos with cheese and chorizo, Warm grapefruit and orange with toasted coconut, Baked eggs with tomato and feta, Breakfast Grain Salad with Blueberries, Hazelnuts & Lemon, Scrambled Egg Pockets, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
696. SLU
11-2-0 ACE 25 units on October 8th? You got to be kidding.



Heavy rain moving into Altamonte Springs yesterday.

Twice the Gulf was expected to be hit with a storm.
Quoting 691. StormTrackerScott:
Very saturated here NW of Orlando this morning as nearly 3" of rain since Sunday has fallen. Ground just can't take anymore around here I literally have a river running thru my neighborhood now which is normally a a small creek.
Hi StormTrackerScott! If it gets too bad perhaps Tazmanian will lend you his yellow raft. Good luck!
Quoting 694. FunnelVortex:


Used your heater when it was 52?



Yup, anything under 60 is freezing. I sure am glad I didn't have the heater in my truck removed after hearing all of the GW predictions over the last few years. I also am glad that the ice in the Artic has expanded, otherwise my house 20 miles inland may have been swallowed by the GOM.
Rain till Thursday..and quite cool..

Today

Rain Chance for Measurable Precipitation 100%

Rain

High: 69 °F

Tonight

Rain Chance for Measurable Precipitation 100%

Rain

Low: 61 °F

Wednesday

Rain Chance for Measurable Precipitation 90%

Rain

High: 70 °F

Wednesday
Night

Rain Likely Chance for Measurable Precipitation 60%

Rain
Likely

Low: 60 °F

Thursday

Chance Rain Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%

Chance
Rain

High: 71 °F

Thursday
Night

Mostly Cloudy

Mostly
Cloudy

Low: 58 °F
Looking like a slow trend toward El-Nino this Winter. I say bring it on as the Southern US could us some interesting weather this Winter.

There are already signs in the long range forecast that we could be dealing with a very active southern branch. So snow from TX to NC seems liekly this Winter and FL is looking wet this Winter wwith average to below average temps.

Quoting 666. PanhandleChuck:


LOL, not another storm, it took me so long to clean up that lawn chair that blew over in my back yard.


Lol!
Quoting 677. SLU:


Well this morning 98L looks very sick after so much hard work in the last couple of days. It's going to have to start all over again. The dry air Gods have eaten it alive.

There's virtually nothing there. I was never really enthusiastic about this system.



It has less convection but better structure just need to have more convection again.Coming until 2pm my local time as I am leaving to high school.
Quoting 557. Astrometeor:


They upgraded it? Huh. Still wimpy. Can't wait for the triplet 8.0s of New Madrid to come back. That'll be fun, I will make sure to be in an open plain away from any dead trees or structures when that happens.


That won't necessarily help you. Between soil liquefaction, ground displacement, sink holes, and general geological instability you probably won't be that much better off. And with nothing built to withstand an 8.0 earthquake in the region, even if you survived you'd be in the middle of a major disaster zone.

And by disaster zone I mean a large portion of the midwest. Most of the substrate out there is solid bedrock which happens to be quite good at transmitting seismic waves across long distances. The 1811-1812 quake caused damage over a very large area, and even in Boston supposedly caused church bells to ring.

Then there's the aftershocks and the other ancillary effects like potential floods (from broken dams, seismic shifts under bodies of water) and fires. There'd also be heavy disruption to our food supply since a lot of our agricultural resources would be impacted.

It would be a bag of happy fun balls alright. :P
Quoting 703. StormTrackerScott:
There are already signs in the long range forecast that we could be dealing with a very active southern branch. So snow from TX to NC seems liekly this Winter and FL is looking wet this Winter wwith average to below average temps.



cattle ranchers in the northern plain states are saying they have suffered large losses from the blizzard ..

Link
708. MahFL
Quoting 703. StormTrackerScott:
There are already signs in the long range forecast that we could be dealing with a very active southern branch. So snow from TX to NC seems liekly this Winter and FL is looking wet this Winter wwith average to below average temps.



I heard FL was going to be dry.
The next winter storm?

Panhandle, that is one craaazy loop in the jet bringing you 50's temps while the pan is still sweltering in mega humidity.
I'm looking forward to actually being on the Fall side of this front with you.
Good morning over there. For those who are interested in deep water operations, here is the link to the live watch of Nautilus in the Caribbean:

Current Status of the Nautilus with its ROVs:
We are continuing to dive along the western wall of the Mona Rift, investigating the geological structure and biological character of this major fault system. We are at a depth of 2100 m. 1 hour 36 min ago
Actually got just under 1" of rain yesterday and today so far from the remnants of Karen and the cold front. As per the Wunderground's almanac, Jacksonville is 4" below average for the year as of yesterday, but no concerns for drought issues.

Cloudy and 75 now, but we're supposed to have lows in the low and mid 60's this week. Happy to see the change in season really coming.
98L...



G'morning from Central OK,

Another chilly, upper-40's, but beautiful morning - with one slight exception.

Light winds combined with a skunk that met an untimely demise last night on the highway, leads to a local forecast outside of continued stinky (barely breathable) conditions.

Otherwise, the next chance for rain, and potentially severe weather, in the area begins late-Thursday and stretches throughout Saturday. A potential concern for tailgaters at the Oklahoma-Texas showdown in Norman on Sat.

Two potential areas of concern in the Tropics. If the CV storm develops, there still is a snowball's chance in "a very warm place" for my numbers to be correct.

Have a fantastic day. Hope for our sake the city guys can cart PePe Le Pew (moment of silence) somewhere far removed from here.
:)
Quoting 711. barbamz:
Good morning over there. For those who are interested in deep water operations, here is the link to the live watch of Nautilus in the Caribbean:

Current Status of the Nautilus with its ROVs:
We are continuing to dive along the western wall of the Mona Rift, investigating the geological structure and biological character of this major fault system. We are at a depth of 2100 m. 1 hour 36 min ago


Thank you for the link .. sad that they are finding garbage on the ocean floor ..
Quoting 714. GeoffreyWPB:
98L...



Another one going nowhere but open seas.
Quoting 717. prcane4you:
Another one going nowhere but open seas.
that is a good thing.
Quoting 717. prcane4you:
Another one going nowhere but open seas.


EXCELLENT!!! Then you can track something and no one gets hurt
Quoting 651. BahaHurican:
Morning Largo, and all... looks like the NW Bahamas may have some rain today.



The ultimate prep that has led to the busted season!!
I went and invested a few thousand dollars in a trailer for my boat so I would not have to go thru the stress of pulling my boat out this year for all the storms we almost had...It seems the more I prep the less we get. This is a very good thing indeed, although we like a good storm you can't beat the adrenaline. We are thankful for the break after two years of excitement from Irene and Sandy. So I do apologize for the year of the tropical storm!!

link to the video of Irene - Link

Quoting 601. Tribucanes:
Blue, an EF5 is not survivable unless your in a bunker or somehow miraculously survive.

Based upon what information?

The peer reviewed literature on tornado survivability indicates that the vast majority of people survived in areas with "violent" (EF4-5) tornadic winds. Most of these studies were biased toward tornado events in areas that had few basements, particularly Oklahoma. This suggests that your chance of surviving a tornado - even a strong or violent tornado - is quite high, assuming you following the standard tornado safety advice. Lowest floor, sturdy structure, most interior room. Never use your car (exceptions are few and not widely applicable), and never stay in a mobile home.

Follow the standard advice, avoid the unsubstantiated advice of newscasters, and although you may be injured (especially in higher-end tornadoes) you will most likely survive. That is what the evidence says.

More reading:
Wurman et al (2007)
Brooks et al (2008)
Simmons & Sutter (2008)
Ashley (2007)
Quoting 701. ncstorm:
Rain till Thursday..and quite cool..

Today

Rain Chance for Measurable Precipitation 100%

Rain

High: 69 °F

Tonight

Rain Chance for Measurable Precipitation 100%

Rain

Low: 61 °F

Wednesday

Rain Chance for Measurable Precipitation 90%

Rain

High: 70 °F

Wednesday
Night

Rain Likely Chance for Measurable Precipitation 60%

Rain
Likely

Low: 60 °F

Thursday

Chance Rain Chance for Measurable Precipitation 30%

Chance
Rain

High: 71 °F

Thursday
Night

Mostly Cloudy

Mostly
Cloudy

Low: 58 °F


One week late again this year for my fishing trip. Looks more like a hang out at the beach and drink beer inside kind of trip now :(.
2013 Atlantic ACE so far...

Andrea - 1.6175
Barry - 0.5650
Chantal - 2.0925
Dorian - 2.4925
Erin - 0.98
Fernand - 0.3625
Gabrielle - 1.8425
Humberto - 8.8225
Ingrid - 4.6675
Jerry - 1.4175
Karen - 2.09

Total - 26.95
Quoting 700. PanhandleChuck:



Yup, anything under 60 is freezing. I sure am glad I didn't have the heater in my truck removed after hearing all of the GW predictions over the last few years. I also am glad that the ice in the Artic has expanded, otherwise my house 20 miles inland may have been swallowed by the GOM.
Artic --> Arctic
98L trying to close off the LLC right now...

Quoting 711. barbamz:
Good morning over there. For those who are interested in deep water operations, here is the link to the live watch of Nautilus in the Caribbean:

Current Status of the Nautilus with its ROVs:
We are continuing to dive along the western wall of the Mona Rift, investigating the geological structure and biological character of this major fault system. We are at a depth of 2100 m. 1 hour 36 min ago


Thanks so much for that link! I read an article last week that they would be diving in the area. This is fascinating to watch.

Lindy
what?....another invest?....another chance of a named storm?....which would be number what......12?...these dead seasons sure are active....



good morning boys and girls
Quoting 724. Stoopid1:
2013 Atlantic ACE so far...

Andrea - 1.6175
Barry - 0.5650
Chantal - 2.0925
Dorian - 2.4925
Erin - 0.98
Fernand - 0.3625
Gabrielle - 1.8425
Humberto - 8.8225
Ingrid - 4.6675
Jerry - 1.4175
Karen - 2.09

Total - 26.95


One word to describe it: pathetic
90W looking good!

So glad that we are now entering a rainy pattern.My garden is healthy.I know plants don't have feelings but they seem more happier now that they've gotten rain and not burning temps and dry conditions.
Quoting 727. VirginIslandsVisitor:


Thanks so much for that link! I read an article last week that they would be diving in the area. This is fascinating to watch.

Lindy


Now the connection is broken :(
Usually it's very stable. I like to follow the live reports from Nautilus for quite a time, whether they are exploring sunken ships, underwater mud volcanoes or whatever. Great job to communicate science in real time in a very public friendly manner!

Edit: Back online again :)
Quoting 700. PanhandleChuck:



Yup, anything under 60 is freezing. I sure am glad I didn't have the heater in my truck removed after hearing all of the GW predictions over the last few years. I also am glad that the ice in the Artic has expanded, otherwise my house 20 miles inland may have been swallowed by the GOM.

Arctic sea ice melt is virtually irrelevant to sea level rise.

There are no climate change predictions that even remotely suggest that winter will no longer occur in the panhandle of Florida. If you were to remove said heater, it would be your mistake to make.
cold front coming into S FL tonight!:) going down to 66 tonight and 86 tomorrow from 91 today!:)
Quoting 730. Torito:
90W looking good!



Is this even a depression yet? JTWC still has it as 90W, I have no idea how that isn't at least a TD, let alone it may already be a minimal cylcone less than 50 knots?
Quoting 736. ILwthrfan:


Is this even a depression yet? JTWC still has it as 90W, I have no idea how that isn't at least a TD, let alone it may already be a minimul cylcone less than 50 knots?


Yes, looks like a tropical cyclone already, JTWC should get its act together sometime.....
Quoting 712. GeoffreyWPB:


System trying to form off Venezuela? BOC spark still alive, kinda inland.
Riah cracks me up! Thanks for the Roundup and shutdown outline for weather types.

So do Tea Party folks like wunderground since it is private sector and doesn't shut down with the most of the other weather services like NOAA or are they disappointed that they weren't able to douse this climate change espousing web portal?
Systems don't spark off of Venezuela like you think they would.
Quoting 675. CycloneOz:
The Complete Hurricane Season up to 10/05/2013:


Thanks! That was amazing to see how so many potential storms just dried up and blew away, so to speak. One weird year indeed!






Some recent screenshots from Nautilus / channel 1.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 734. ScottLincoln:

Arctic sea ice melt is virtually irrelevant to sea level rise.

There are no climate change predictions that even remotely suggest that winter will no longer occur in the panhandle of Florida. If you were to remove said heater, it would be your mistake to make.


K.... keep drinking the kool aid
Quoting 725. Neapolitan:
Artic --> Arctic
This does not help save polar bears. It polarizes both sides. Leadership is desperately needed in this country.
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 081431
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 08 2013

ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES...CONVENTIONAL
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE
NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION HAS ALSO DECREASED THIS
MORNING...AND OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE CONSEQUENTLY
FALLEN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT... WHICH IS A
BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SATELLITE ESTIMATES.

THE UNEXPECTED WEAKENING OF NARDA DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS APPEARS
TO BE THE RESULT OF AN UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THE
CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO EVEN DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR...AND
INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE NARDA TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...
AND THE CYCLONE IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NARDA CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT.
THE STORM IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A
LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD BEGIN MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AS
IT IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 15.6N 126.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 16.1N 127.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 16.3N 128.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 16.4N 129.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 16.4N 130.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 16.3N 131.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1200Z 16.0N 133.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1200Z 15.5N 135.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Quoting 744. PanhandleChuck:


K.... keep drinking the kool aid

A fascinating, logical rebuttal. Do you have any actual information to back up your original claims?

As a reminder...
1. Arctic sea ice melt is virtually irrelevant to sea level rise. You can look this up... it isn't a controversial statement.

2. There are no climate change predictions that even remotely suggest that winter will no longer occur in the panhandle of Florida. If you were to remove said heater, it would be your mistake to make. You can look this up... no astrophysicists have made predictions that the planet's orbit will change. If you'd like to suggest otherwise, it's your responsibility to back it up with evidence.

No evidence to back up your claims. No rebuttals with anything of substance. Yet someone who has actually gone to school for this is "drinking the kool aid?" Fascinating.

Quoting 745. scott39:
This does not help save polar bears. It polarizes both sides. Leadership is desperately needed in this country.
Correcting a spelling error is "polarizing both sides"?

Please do tell...
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Based upon what information?

The peer reviewed literature on tornado survivability indicates that the vast majority of people survived in areas with "violent" (EF4-5) tornadic winds. Most of these studies were biased toward tornado events in areas that had few basements, particularly Oklahoma. This suggests that your chance of surviving a tornado - even a strong or violent tornado - is quite high, assuming you following the standard tornado safety advice. Lowest floor, sturdy structure, most interior room. Never use your car (exceptions are few and not widely applicable), and never stay in a mobile home.

Follow the standard advice, avoid the unsubstantiated advice of newscasters, and although you may be injured (especially in higher-end tornadoes) you will most likely survive. That is what the evidence says.

More reading:
Wurman et al (2007)
Brooks et al (2008)
Simmons & Sutter (2008)
Ashley (2007)

Thank you for the interesting links, Scott. I have never been involved in a tornado rescue, but have part of rescue teams after major earthquakes in California and Mexico City. While the lead time from a tornado warning to a strike may only be a few minutes, it's more like a few seconds in a major earthquake. Even while a tornado is almost on top of a structure, there may still be a few seconds to move to a better place of safety. Once a major earthquake is in progress, it's impossible to move at all due to the violent ground motion. I was continually amazed at the number of people we found alive in completely collapsed structures, including pancake collapses in multistory concrete slab buildings in Mexico City. Every collapse creates voids withing the collapsed structure, and that's where people are sheltered and can survive, even when it looks hopeless from the outside. The biggest killer is time, not the actual collapse. Most trapped people are injured and dehydration sets in withing 24 hours, especially in hot weather. I haven't seen any figures for the numbers of people who survived the initial collapse but died later from injuries or dehydration but, from my own anecdotal experience, it's a substantial amount.
Quoting 749. sar2401:

Thank you for the interesting links, Scott. I have never been involved in a tornado rescue, but have part of rescue teams after major earthquakes in California and Mexico City. While the lead time from a tornado warning to a strike may only be a few minutes, it's more like a few seconds in a major earthquake. Even while a tornado is almost on top of a structure, there may still be a few seconds to move to a better place of safety. Once a major earthquake is in progress, it's impossible to move at all due to the violent ground motion. I was continually amazed at the number of people we found alive in completely collapsed structures, including pancake collapses in multistory concrete slab buildings in Mexico City. Every collapse creates voids withing the collapsed structure, and that's where people are sheltered and can survive, even when it looks hopeless from the outside. The biggest killer is time, not the actual collapse. Most trapped people are injured and dehydration sets in withing 24 hours, especially in hot weather. I haven't seen any figures for the numbers of people who survived the initial collapse but died later from injuries or dehydration but, from my own anecdotal experience, it's a substantial amount.

This is why we should be pushing for the earthquake warning systems already in use in many other developed countries with earthquake threats. Unfortunately our national priorities many times stray from science and important domestic matters.
The information on hurricanes in the Atlantic is well covered and much appreciated but this year it was a quiet year and it seems to me the Pacific is having a busy year. We live in a big World and not every thing revolves around the USA. Could you extend you statistics to the rest of the World. It would also give you more interest in the off season.