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Karen Weakens Significantly; 4 Feet of Snow in South Dakota; 18 Tornadoes in Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:57 PM GMT on October 05, 2013

Tropical Storm Karen has weakened to a minimal-strength tropical storm with 40 mph winds as it heads towards landfall in Southeast Louisiana. Karen continues to struggle with high wind shear of 25 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the west. These winds have driven dry air from the Western Gulf of Mexico into Karen's core, making it difficult for heavy thunderstorms to build on the west and south sides of Karen's center of circulation. Satellite loops show the classic appearance of a sheared storm, with the low level center exposed to view, and the heavy thunderstorms pushed to one side by the high shear. A spiral band on the north side of Karen's center of circulation moved over Southern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama Friday afternoon, bringing a few scattered areas of 1" of rain. Long-range radar out of New Orleans shows a few thunderstorms over land, with the bulk of Karen's rain offshore. Karen brought a storm surge of up to 1.6' above normal along the Louisiana and Mississippi coast Saturday morning, as seen on our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Karen, taken at approximately 12:30 pm EDT on October 5, 2013. At the time, Karen had top winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Karen
The computer models have come into good agreement on the track of Karen, with the storm expected to make landfall in Southeast Louisiana and pass near or to the south of New Orleans early Sunday morning. With wind shear showing no signs of letting up, any strengthening of Karen on Saturday will be slow, and it is more likely that the storm will weaken to a tropical depression with 35 mph winds before landfall. NHC's 11 am EDT Saturday wind probability forecast shows the highest odds of tropical storm-force winds to be at the tip of the Mississippi River at Buras, Louisiana: 47%. New Orleans has a 38% chance, and the rest of the coast from Mississippi to Pensacola, Florida has odds ranging from 20% - 30%. Karen should cause mostly minor damage at landfall, with flooding rains, storm surge, and a few weak tornadoes of concern.


Figure 2. iWitness Anne Zollinger captured this photo of snow accumulation in Wright, WY on October 4, 2013.


Figure 3. Radar reflectivity image of the supercell thunderstorm that spawned the tornado that hit Wayne, Nebraska (marked by the circle with "+" symbol in it.)

A blizzard and a severe weather outbreak in the Midwest
A storm far more intense and dangerous than Tropical Storm Karen is Winter Storm Atlas, which continues to pound the Midwest with a variety of extreme weather today. Blizzard conditions enveloped much of Wyoming and South Dakota on Friday, with an astonishing 48" (4 feet!) of snow falling in Deadwood, South Dakota. Check out this amazing photo of the snow there. The 43.5" of snow that fell in Lead, South Dakota was that city's fourth heaviest snowfall on record. In Rapid City, South Dakota, the airport recorded thundersnow and sustained winds of 44 mph, gusting to 55 mph at 4 pm Friday, before communication were lost. The snow tally so far in the city is 18.3", making it the sixth largest snowfall in recorded history. Casper, Wyoming received 16.2" of snow, their tenth greatest snow storm in recorded history. The storm brought a significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms with very large hail and eighteen preliminary reports of tornadoes, with the most damaging tornado hitting Wayne, Nebraska on Friday afternoon near 5:30 pm CDT, causing millions in damage, and injuring fifteen people. The severe weather threat is much less for Saturday and Sunday, with only a "slight" risk of severe weather being predicted by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has done some research to see the last time a blizzard, major severe weather outbreak, tropical storm, and extreme fire danger all threatened the U.S. at the same time, and has not been able to find such an event in past history, as detailed in his latest blog post.

Extremely critical fire threat continues for Southern California
A Santa Ana wind event is in its second day over Southern California in Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, where numerous locations saw wind gusts in excess of 60 mph on Friday. The top wind gust was 75 mph in Santa Paula at 4:45 am Saturday, October 5; the Naval Air Station Point Muga had a gust of 74 mph at 1:54 am Saturday. Strong wind gusts of up to 60 mph, combined with humidity levels of 5 - 10%, will make for extremely critical fire conditions again on Saturday afternoon. Fortunately, no fires were sparked on Friday. Let's keep it that way on Saturday!

I'll have a new post Sunday.

Jeff Masters
TORNADO WARNED
TORNADO WARNED
Drove up to my target area in Fairbury, Nebraska and watched this storm develop and eventually drop a tornado in Palmyra. Think chasing tornadoes is dangerous during the day? Try one at night! This was absolutely crazy! I also chased Friday in Nebraska and Iowa. I'm extremely tired......
Karen's Sunrise
Karen's Sunrise
Tropical storm Karen has far reaching outer bands giving us a brilliant Sunrise in SW FL.
Crazy Storm Cells and Shadows at Sunset
Crazy Storm Cells and Shadows at Sunset
Storms brewing in the afternoon,made for some spectacular sky viewing..this storm cell quickly moved north-northeast,with a possible tornado outside of Essex,[Ia] a few miles northeast of this location...So,,we got to watch it all form. Cells to the east-southeast also formed along the line...some hail cells apparently in the area as well...we did not have any severe weather,even though they sounded the siren,,funny enough,,nothing was going on in Shenandoah.a few drops of rain,and lightning
Silos
Silos
We had a
Dome
Dome
This is a view of the Desert Dome at the Henry Doorly zoo looking SE. You see the back side of a thunderstorm in Iowa.
Storm Brewin
Storm Brewin
Thunderheads growing quickly again tonight headed up the Missouri Valley.

Hurricane Winter Weather Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Video by chaser James Reynolds of Typhoon Fitow lashing Okinawa.

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SIGH.........................
1003. JRRP
1004. sar2401
Quoting ISMBAF:
From the NWS Taunton MA Forecast Discussion:
THERE IS THEN A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY FROM FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHAT IS CERTAIN IS THAT A STORM SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...MOST LIKELY OFF THE
CAROLINA OR MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THAT IT WILL BECOME A RATHER
PERSISTENT FEATURE. THE 00Z GFS INCREASES CLOUDS AND MOISTURE
OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND STARTING LATE SAT.
THE 00Z ECMWF HAS THE LOW INTENSIFYING AND HEADING NORTH...CAUSING
RAIN OVER OUR REGION AS EARLY AS FRI. THE CANADIAN MODEL IMPLIES
THAT THIS LOW WOULD BE OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL ORIGIN AND THAT
IT COULD MOVE INLAND OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
.
AGAIN...UNCERTAINTY IS QUITE HIGH IN THIS PERIOD.
Anyone have some thoughts on this? The time period is quite a ways out.

Yes. Ignore the entire thing until a low which is predicted by the CMC actually develops. Once it develops, keep an eye on it until it keels over. If it makes it out into the Atlantic and is headed your way, then you can start worrying. :-)
1005. Kyon5

Quoting 942. KoritheMan:


Torcon alert: 10


How you know you need coffee: I originally read that as Twerkon alert: 10 which made me think that Miley Ray Cyrus had done something tasteless again. :P
G'morning from Central OK,

And what a glorious morning it is here! A bit nippy with the wind, definitely jacket weather this morning, but going to be a beautiful fall day all-in-all.

Highs in the low-70's today, warming up into the 80's this week, until the next front passes through sometime towards the end of the week/next weekend.

Karen has finally given up the ghost. Never thought it would amount to much, but certainly never thought it would amount to so little. Not even sure folks will see much rain out of this - except for FL. But heck you're used to that, and it should not be anything out of the ordinary.

GFS indicates something may spin up next week, but don't be terribly surprised if nothing comes of it. Seems to be the theme this year.

Little one just woke up - so off to make French toast. If in the neighborhood there's more than enough for everyone.

Have a fantastic day!





Boring
1009. sar2401
Quoting IKE:
In other words....a Karen redo. For the umpteenth time this season.

11-2-0. 55 days to go and it's officially finished.

Ike, you are far too pessimistic. With some luck and and a decrease in wind shear, this one had a chance to be "Jerry II". It could be a contender. "-)
Quoting 1008. CaribBoy:




Boring
LOL... some pple think this is paradise, u know... lol
Quoting 1010. BahaHurican:
LOL... some pple think this is paradise, u know... lol


Lol yes, indeed! But I love bad weather, while they don't :-)
1012. sar2401
Quoting CaribBoy:




Boring

Seriously, though, you really do live in as close to paradise as we'll find in earth. I'd drop my hook in that harbor any day.
Quoting 1012. sar2401:

Seriously, though, you really do live in as close to paradise as we'll find in earth. I'd drop my hook in that harbor any day.


I have some stuff to finish then I will go to the beach for 1 or 2 hrs before lunch..

Lol hopefully I'll see big thunderclouds developing close xD
1015. LargoFl
Quoting 1000. hurricanewatcher61:
NWS in Melbourne said it would be in the Mid 60's for lows by Wednesday, not anymore. Geez, I was looking for a decent cooldown with front passing through. They have had a busted forcast through summer at times as well. I remember them even mentioning it as well, guess they have to be honest when it comes down to it. It will pour down rain when they mentioned 20% then at 60% it is sunny all day, go figure. At least we have shot of 50% by Wednesday, we shall see. We could use a little rain here on east coast.
wow I totally agree..my local met said later this coming week we would have lows in the 50's..yeah right..no chance of that.
Quoting 1012. sar2401:

Seriously, though, you really do live in as close to paradise as we'll find in earth. I'd drop my hook in that harbor any day.
Thing is, normally they would get enough variation wx-wise, even if only diurnal pop up storms, to satisfy Caribboy's craving. Just this season it seems all the rain is happening in bands - even in the Bahamas the NW has gotten more rain than average while the SE is practically at drought stage...

Between waves and troughs we usually stay pretty moist here during the season...
1017. LargoFl
6z GFS for oct 12th............
1018. LargoFl
Karen's final ACE*: 2.1275. That means this once-promising/threatening storm failed to even reach the very low 2013 average ACE to-date of 2.4191, though her paltry numbers were still enough to catapult her into 4th place:

1) HUMBERTO: 8.8225
2) INGRID: 4.6675
3) DORIAN: 2.45
4) KAREN: 2.1275
5) CHANTAL: 2.0925
6) GABRIELLE: 1.8425
7) JERRY: 1.4175
8) ANDREA: 1.405
9) ERIN: 0.8575
10) BARRY: 0.565
11) FERNAND: 0.3625

2013

2013

2013

My favorite and most telling stat, and one that shows the true weakness of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane saeason, can be seen in this chart I just threw together:

2013

In fact, in the entire official 144-year history of North Atlantic hurricane seasons (from 1870 through now), 2013's average ACE per-storm is the second lowest on record. Only 1925's tepid average of 1.75 per storm was lower. The 1960-2012 average is 8.51.

And finally:

2013
1020. LargoFl
1021. junie1
Picture of cariboy on a perfect day
1022. K8eCane
Quoting 1019. Neapolitan:
Karen's final ACE*: 2.1275. That means this once-promising/threatening storm failed to even reach the very low 2013 average ACE to-date of 2.4191, though her paltry numbers were still enough to catapult her into 4th place:

1) HUMBERTO: 8.8225
2) INGRID: 4.6675
3) DORIAN: 2.45
4) KAREN: 2.1275
5) CHANTAL: 2.0925
6) GABRIELLE: 1.8425
7) JERRY: 1.4175
8) ANDREA: 1.405
9) ERIN: 0.8575
10) BARRY: 0.565
11) FERNAND: 0.3625

2013

2013

2013

My favorite and most telling one, though, can be seen in this chart I just threw together:

2013

In fact, in the entire official 144-year history of North Atlantic hurricane seasons (from 1870 through today), 2013's average ACE per-storm is the second lowest on record. Only 1925's tepid average of 1.75 per storm was lower. The 1960-2012 average is 8.51.

And finally:

2013



Always causing trouble Nea! JK JK
Good Graphics
Wow
1023. sar2401
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


It's nice to see a fairly normal looking tide and surge chart for Waveland after what I saw there after Katrina. It's the the only town of any real size I saw that was completely destroyed by storm surge. Even semis and a big fire truck just disappeared. I wonder where it all ended up?

Speaking of wondering, I was sitting here, giving thanks that Karen won't be another Katrina and was thinking about our model performance this year. If we have to have bad model performance, at least it has been "good" bad, in that it predicted bigger and we got smaller. What would have happened if we actually got bigger storms and the models erred in the other direction? I've about lost faith in any model this year, but I sure hope they get them at least a little fixed by next year.
1024. K8eCane
Quoting 1023. sar2401:

It's nice to see a fairly normal looking tide and surge chart for Waveland after what I saw there after Katrina. It's the the only town of any real size I saw that was completely destroyed by storm surge. Even semis and a big fire truck just disappeared. I wonder where it all ended up?

Speaking of wondering, I was sitting here, giving thanks that Karen won't be another Katrina and was thinking about our model performance this year. If we have to have bad model performance, at least it has been "good" bad, in that it predicted bigger and we got smaller. What would have happened if we actually got bigger storms and the models erred in the other direction? I've about lost faith in any model this year, but I sure hope they get them at least a little fixed by next year.

im wondering if it has anything to do with budget
Quoting 988. BahaHurican:
I saw ppple mention Jeanne and Frances as S FL strikes, but IIRC they hit N of Palm Beach Co., at Stuart. [Jeanne was the first major (Category 3 or higher) storm to make landfall on the East coast between Palm Beach, Florida and the mouth of the Savannah River since 1899.[15]]

Katrina and Rita were both cat 1, albeit strengthening, as they passed through south FL.

So the person who posited that Andrew was the last major to hit SF from the EAST may not have been that far off...


While Frances and Jeanne both did hit the Treasure Coast, they were both very large storms, so major impacts were felt throughout South Florida! Both were strong enough to close Broward County and Palm Beach schools. And the eye of Frances was so large that we here in Boca Raton found ourselves in the Southern section of the eyewall.
1026. LargoFl
1027. sar2401
Quoting BahaHurican:
Thing is, normally they would get enough variation wx-wise, even if only diurnal pop up storms, to satisfy Caribboy's craving. Just this season it seems all the rain is happening in bands - even in the Bahamas the NW has gotten more rain than average while the SE is practically at drought stage...

Between waves and troughs we usually stay pretty moist here during the season...

Indeed, but these kinds of weather variations are normal and always change for the better. Paradise lasts forever (or for as long as the world is around). North Dakota has some of the most varied weather in the country, from searing heat waves to months long bouts of below zero weather punctuated by the occasional blizzard. That's why about 200 people live there, and most of them want to leave. :-0
1028. LargoFl

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

Thanks for the visual summary, Nea...

I think we are nearing the point when we will have to officially designate 2013 as a "bust" season.... some bloggers will not be pleased to have to admit the season seriously underperformed in comparison to expectations...

1030. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HIGH RISK OF LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AREA
BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF WATERS TODAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING...SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE FORECAST...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE.
THIS HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN URBAN AND LOW LYING
AREAS. AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OF FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

watch out it coming!!
1032. LargoFl
hmmm.......oct 11th...

Lots of snowcover for so early in the season!
Harbinger of a cold winter? Only the shadow knows.

Map on left is last year at this time. On right is current.
1034. LargoFl
GEM model has been drinking the good stuff lol....
1035. hydrus
Quoting 1025. ProphetessofDoom:


While Frances and Jeanne both did hit the Treasure Coast, they were both very large storms, so major impacts were felt throughout South Florida! Both were strong enough to close Broward County and Palm Beach schools. And the eye of Frances was so large that we here in Boca Raton found ourselves in the Southern section of the eyewall.
Francis and Jeanne also caused a lot of trouble for folks hit by Charley. People were trying to put what was left of there belongings and some normalcy back into there lives, only to have those storms rip things apart again. Especially Jeanne...It was terrible.
Quoting 1031. hurricanes2018:
watch out it coming!!
I have seen to many false alarms this year!.
1037. hydrus
Quoting 1034. LargoFl:
GEM model has been drinking the good stuff lol....
Always.
1038. beell
Quoting 977. CaicosRetiredSailor:



I see you found the link you were looking for. Re-saved it here also.
:)
1039. LargoFl
Navy model also has that storm coming across....
Quoting 1036. washingtonian115:
I have seen to many false alarms this year!.
Random question Washi but are your trees changing color yet , when do you think the DC, Maryland area will start changing?
1041. LargoFl
could get some good thunderstorms when she comes ashore..maybe a few waterspouts since she is tropical..
Funny...JB had the same maps


Quoting 1033. PensacolaDoug:

Lots of snowcover for so early in the season!
Harbinger of a cold winter? Only the shadow knows.

Map on left is last year at this time. On right is current.
Quoting 1040. Climate175:
Random question Washi but are your trees changing color yet , when do you think the DC, Maryland area will start changing?
Yes my trees have changed.They started changing back in late August and the leaves started falling off in about mid September.More leaves are starting to fall now.

when do you think the DC, Maryland area will start changing?

The leaves of the trees in the DMV have been changing.Maybe not so much downtown due to the heat island effect.But up here in N.W D.C where their is more shade and less heat it's a different story.
Quoting 1021. junie1:
Picture of cariboy on a perfect day


I want a even DARKER sky!!!
I don't think any other satellite image could possibly sum up this hurricane season better. 
Quoting 1045. CybrTeddy:
I don't think any other satellite image could possibly sum up this hurricane season better.
TRUE
Quoting 1016. BahaHurican:
Thing is, normally they would get enough variation wx-wise, even if only diurnal pop up storms, to satisfy Caribboy's craving. Just this season it seems all the rain is happening in bands - even in the Bahamas the NW has gotten more rain than average while the SE is practically at drought stage...

Between waves and troughs we usually stay pretty moist here during the season...


Striking similarity with the N Leewards VERSUS Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands rain-wise.
Quoting 1047. CaribBoy:


Striking similarity with the N Leewards VERUS Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands rain-wise.
Somebody send CaribBoy a Lenny !
Quoting 1048. Climate175:
Somebody send CaribBoy a Lenny !


XD
ex karen pulsing a bit. might be worse for florida than cyclone bonnie a few yrs ago
1051. SLU
Quoting 990. IKE:
In other words....a Karen redo. For the umpteenth time this season.

11-2-0. 55 days to go and it's officially finished.


For all intents and purposes, it's officially finished.
This also sums up this season. Dry air and shear have won. Time to admit defeat.
1053. RTLSNK

Quoting 1051. SLU:


For all intents and purposes, it's officially finished.
It's been over since Ingrid.
Most anemic hurricane season I've ever tracked.
1055. RTLSNK
1056. sar2401
Quoting K8eCane:im wondering if it has anything to do with budget

Not unless hurricane models produce revenue that was stolen. The GFS, for example, worked fine last year. This year, they "upgraded the model" and switched it over to a new supercomputer right in the middle of hurricane season. Anyone who has worked with networks know it's a bad idea to switch a critical program to a new platform at a critical time. Money is not the issue, or at least not any more than no one ever has all the money they want, but competence is most certainly an issue.
I wonder if the main cause of the lower ACE producution in the North Atlantic basin since 2011 and being more pronounced the low numbers in 2013 is the multi decadal active period since 1995 that ended more early than what the experts forecasted.
Quoting 1051. SLU:


For all intents and purposes, it's officially finished.


For me, it's finished when water temps go below 80f. Good news from the NBDC.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm= at2
Hmm looks like TD Karen's LLC is moving SE-ESE looks like now located near 28.0N 90.0W or it could be that the LLC dissipated and new one reformed or that LLC dissipated and none reformed and I'm looking at something else
1060. hydrus
Quoting 1025. ProphetessofDoom:


While Frances and Jeanne both did hit the Treasure Coast, they were both very large storms, so major impacts were felt throughout South Florida! Both were strong enough to close Broward County and Palm Beach schools. And the eye of Frances was so large that we here in Boca Raton found ourselves in the Southern section of the eyewall.
Agreed.

So imagine if the storm had come ashore in Jupiter or even closer to West Palm. Impacts would have been felt much deeper into the more heavily populated parts of Broward County. As it was, neither storm impacted S FL as badly as a direct strike would have done.

I think the original post was suggesting that despite the high activity of the last 20 years, the SE counties - Dade, Broward, Palm Beach [and even the Keys] - have not seen the kind of major storm landfalls that devastated them in the 1920s and 30s.

Nah I'm going with my first option
1063. VR46L
Quoting 1059. wunderkidcayman:
Hmm looks like TD Karen's LLC is moving SE-ESE looks like now located near 28.0N 90.0W or it could be that the LLC dissipated and new one reformed or that LLC dissipated and none reformed and I'm looking at something else


Its Not going to reach the Caymans ......:)
1064. sar2401
Quoting RTLSNK:

We're waiting here in Alabama for some rain...any rain...to get here. You can see from radar that whatever rain Karen is producing is not going to make it it much further north than the coast. Our only hope is that rain from the front in Mississippi but it looks like the southern end of the front is already starting to wash out, as it usually does. I spent most of this week bringing in all the lawn furniture, trying down lose objects, pruning questionable looking branches from my trees, and making sure my drainage ditches were cleaned out. Now I sit here with my cup of coffee with my fiance looking at me like I'm some kind of moron. Oh well, at least I'm ahead for 2014. :-)
Quoting 1042. palmbeachinlet:
Funny...JB had the same maps



What's so funny? Is there a point to your post?
1066. sar2401
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Hmm looks like TD Karen's LLC is moving SE-ESE looks like now located near 28.0N 90.0W or it could be that the LLC dissipated and new one reformed or that LLC dissipated and none reformed and I'm looking at something else

I'm not sure Karen has any kind of LLC but, if it does, it's sure not headed anywhere that resembles south. It will be dragged, kicking and screaming, almost due east by the trough rapidly approaching from the west. As I said several nights ago, Karen's chance of making the big time ended when it didn't intensify in the SW Caribbean. I take it the damage from your close brush with Karen was minimal.
1067. Pallis
Quoting 1059. wunderkidcayman:
Hmm looks like TD Karen's LLC is moving SE-ESE looks like now located near 28.0N 90.0W or it could be that the LLC dissipated and new one reformed or that LLC dissipated and none reformed and I'm looking at something else
This afternoon should clear things up,er actually make clouds cover W Florida. Reinforcements coming from east and south.
It will be dragged, kicking and screaming...


More like shoved violently!
...KAREN DISSIPATES...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 89.9W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

REMNANTS OF KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 06 2013

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF
KAREN HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND IS NO LONGER WELL DEFINED. AS A
RESULT...KAREN IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE THE
LAST ADVISORY. THE REMNANTS OF KAREN HAVE BEEN MOVING QUICKLY
EASTWARD THIS MORNING AT AROUND 11 KT...AND SHOULD CONTINUE ON A
GENERAL EASTWARD TRACK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT UNTIL THEY ARE OVERTAKEN BY THE
FRONT IN A DAY OR SO.

THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST OF
THE REMNANT CENTER...AND REGENERATON IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO EVEN
HIGHER VALUES OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ADVECTING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF KAREN CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. INTERESTS ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST CAN FIND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IN PRODUCTS
FROM THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 28.1N 89.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS
12H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

1071. guygee
Quoting 1025. ProphetessofDoom:


While Frances and Jeanne both did hit the Treasure Coast, they were both very large storms, so major impacts were felt throughout South Florida! Both were strong enough to close Broward County and Palm Beach schools. And the eye of Frances was so large that we here in Boca Raton found ourselves in the Southern section of the eyewall.
I live in Satellite Beach but for Frances I went down there to stay with my cousin in Boca Raton since she was by herself. Boca Raton and surrounding areas lost power early on and TS-force winds brought a lot of trees down. With no power and severe gasoline shortages conditions were bad in S. FL even into Broward County. Meanwhile back up north in Satellite Beach tornadoes tore the roof off of the Post Office and many houses, so it was worse. In my neighborhood several houses away there is a small sewer booster pump that needs to be serviced with a generator until the power comes back up ... that puts our neighborhood on the priority list to get power back up earlier than most, so I had power shortly after returning while many others went over a week.

Jeanne was not nearly as bad in this area, although worse south of Sebastian Inlet in Vero Beach and Port St. Lucie from what I heard and saw.
1073. sar2401
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
I wonder if the main cause of the lower ACE producution in the North Atlantic basin since 2011 and being more pronounced the low numbers in 2013 is the multi decadal active period since 1995 that ended more early than what the experts forecasted.

That's my belief. These active periods average about 20 years. 1995 to 2012 isn't all that far off the average. These multi-decadal active periods also tend to have their most active seasons about in the middle of the cycle, and 2004-2005 are also in the right time period. Most weather is characterized by persistence. During the height of the last active period, it wasn't hard to forecast that the next year would be much higher than average. If 2014 turns out to be average or below average, I think it will be pretty certain we will be headed into the next quiet multi-decadal period.
Quoting 1065. PensacolaDoug:

What's so funny? Is there a point to your post?
U r not supposed to use good graphics from other sources... ur supposed to slave and put ur own together....

BTW, the first time I saw the right image [think somebody posted it yesterday] I was struck by the dearth of snow to the north of the US Rockies... normally there would be a like down along the western side of the continent [following the mountains] before such an accumulation would be seen so far south.
.
1076. SLU
Typhoon Danas (Ramil)


1077. RTLSNK
Quoting 1064. sar2401:

We're waiting here in Alabama for some rain...any rain...to get here. You can see from radar that whatever rain Karen is producing is not going to make it it much further north than the coast. Our only hope is that rain from the front in Mississippi but it looks like the southern end of the front is already starting to wash out, as it usually does. I spent most of this week bringing in all the lawn furniture, trying down lose objects, pruning questionable looking branches from my trees, and making sure my drainage ditches were cleaned out. Now I sit here with my cup of coffee with my fiance looking at me like I'm some kind of moron. Oh well, at least I'm ahead for 2014. :-)


LOL, I know the feeling, I live in Macon, Ga and one
of the earlier models had the center coming up thru
the panhandle and dead center right thru Macon heading
NE back out to the east coast. So I did the same things,
patio furniture, big shade umbrella, plants on the
patio walls, ect ect. :)

Will be putting them all back tomorrow. :)
1078. SLU
Quoting 1069. Tropicsweatherpr:
...KAREN DISSIPATES...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 89.9W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES



This season is officially a bust.
1079. 19N81W
Quoting 1076. SLU:
Typhoon Danas (Ramil)




meanwhile in the rest of the tropical world.........
Quoting 1074. BahaHurican:
...the first time I saw the right image [think somebody posted it yesterday] I was struck by the dearth of snow to the north of the US Rockies... normally there would be a like down along the western side of the continent [following the mountains] before such an accumulation would be seen so far south.
This image clearly shows the anomalously oddball nature of this week's unprecedented, record-shattering snowfall event:

snow
ex-s are like bacteria kill most but that little bit takes off ese.
1082. Dakster
Quoting 1073. sar2401:

That's my belief. These active periods average about 20 years. 1995 to 2012 isn't all that far off the average. These multi-decadal active periods also tend to have their most active seasons about in the middle of the cycle, and 2004-2005 are also in the right time period. Most weather is characterized by persistence. During the height of the last active period, it wasn't hard to forecast that the next year would be much higher than average. If 2014 turns out to be average or below average, I think it will be pretty certain we will be headed into the next quiet multi-decadal period.


For personal financial reasons I hope you are correct. I can't afford insurance (home) as it is.

I see Karen has been downgraded to a sun shower.
1083. 19N81W
Quoting 1078. SLU:


This season is officially a bust.


Heavy snow early in October and no hurricanes....does kinda make you wonder.....

looking forward is there anything else for the caribbean in the next couple weeks?
Hmm ok NHC says E I'll take that as E and now dead and says whatever LLC is there it's weak and elongated fine boy it must feel boring with no US landfalling system since early season with Andrea which is a good thing right now with what's happening with the Gov and everything else US don't need any
This season has been so boring,Yesterday I have a feeling Karen wouldn`t make landfall and I was correct -_-.I am speechless of this season.
Offically Karen is now our ExKaren...remnants are moving east according to NHC
1087. guygee
Quoting 1073. sar2401:

That's my belief. These active periods average about 20 years. 1995 to 2012 isn't all that far off the average. These multi-decadal active periods also tend to have their most active seasons about in the middle of the cycle, and 2004-2005 are also in the right time period. Most weather is characterized by persistence. During the height of the last active period, it wasn't hard to forecast that the next year would be much higher than average. If 2014 turns out to be average or below average, I think it will be pretty certain we will be headed into the next quiet multi-decadal period.
Was it only yesterday you were saying the historical period since the 1800's was an insufficient sample for scientists to make judgements? Now one or two years is enough for you? Wrong on both counts.
1088. K8eCane
Well everybody..See You In September
1089. SLU
A record breaking season for all the right (wrong) reasons.

1091. sar2401
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Duh fool
And yes "fool" because it only a fool that would bring up an island in the Caribbean when we talking about the GOM specifically the US gulf coast


Yeah it appears to still have it and yeah it appears to be ESE if this continues without merging with the front the it could make landfall in Florida given that it survives and not merge

WKC, assuming you missed it, the NHC just declared Karen a remnant low. As I said, I'm not sure it has an LLC, more like a collection of blobs. The NHC says the remnant is headed east at 11 mph, so whatever is left may very well make its only landfall somewhere around the Big Bend area of Florida. I said this yesterday also and many people thought I was nuts.

What is it with you and the name calling? You really do have a bias for storms to head for the Caymans, just like saying a storm that's clearly headed east, and about to become a remnant low, is headed ESE and forming a new LLC. You open yourself up for some ribbing when you keep doing this. Just stick to forecasting what's really happening, not what you'd like to see happen.
@ Caribboy...



This was Friday... but the wx has been pretty much like this most of the last week. This is the first week since July that it hasn't rained heavily here at least some part of every single day.

So maybe u guys will get some rain... soon...
1093. MahFL
RIP Karen, what a tease she was !
1094. SLU
Quoting 1083. 19N81W:


Heavy snow early in October and no hurricanes....does kinda make you wonder.....

looking forward is there anything else for the caribbean in the next couple weeks?


The tropical season is done. The wave in the EATL probably won't develop given the stable air in the CATL graveyard. Look for the models to drop this system in the next couple of days once they begin to resolve the poor thermodynamic environment better.

1095. sar2401
Quoting guygee:
Was it only yesterday you were saying the historical period since the 1800's was an insufficient sample for scientists to make judgements? Now one or two years is enough for you? Wrong on both counts.

Yes, but you're apparently confused on what I wrote. It's certainly possible to make forecasts based on things we know for sure have happened since 1800, like multi-decadal active and inactive seasons. It is not possible to make accurate predictions about how many storms an "average" season has when we have no clue about an "average" season before 1800. Unless you believe we have seen every permutation of both hurricanes and hurricane seasons since 1800, it's a well accepted principle of statistics that making extrapolations from extremely small sample sizes is always going to produce errors. We just don't know either the type or magnitude of the errors because they haven't happened to us yet. If you can refute that using statistical evidence, I'm all ears.
I think the remnants of Karen will increase the rain threat for the entire state of Florida thru at least tomorrow. This will be most felt on the west coast later today and tonight.
Tropical Storm Karen R.I.P. Another one bites the dust!
Karen busted badly and was upstaged by a winter storm.

I shouldn't have been surprised. This is 2013.
Quoting 1056. sar2401:

Not unless hurricane models produce revenue that was stolen. The GFS, for example, worked fine last year. This year, they "upgraded the model" and switched it over to a new supercomputer right in the middle of hurricane season. Anyone who has worked with networks know it's a bad idea to switch a critical program to a new platform at a critical time. Money is not the issue, or at least not any more than no one ever has all the money they want, but competence is most certainly an issue.

The GFS isn't just used for hurricane season. It is used for forecasts nationwide, every day of the year. If someone is going to argue that it shouldn't be updated during hurricane season because it is a bad time, the question then is, what is a "good time?" Severe weather season for the plains? Winter storm season for the northeast?

The answer is probably closer to "there isn't a good time" and it should be updated as soon as reasonably possible if updates are necessary.
I think if history is any indication Florida will have one more threat before the 20th and if we can get thru that I believe the US can rest easy for another season.
bonnie knocked down a few garbage cans in miami lets see what ex karen will do.
Quoting 1094. SLU:


The tropical season is done. The wave in the EATL probably won't develop given the stable air in the CATL graveyard. Look for the models to drop this system in the next couple of days once they begin to resolve the poor thermodynamic environment better.

It might develop but into another td or weak ts.
Quoting 1099. ScottLincoln:

The GFS isn't just used for hurricane season. It is used for forecasts nationwide, every day of the year. If someone is going to argue that it shouldn't be updated during hurricane season because it is a bad time, the question then is, what is a "good time?" Severe weather season for the plains? Winter storm season for the northeast?

The answer is probably closer to "there isn't a good time" and it should be updated as soon as reasonably possible if updates are necessary.
I hypothesize that the models underperformed because this was an anomalous season where signals were overlooked or misinterpreted. Just like 2005, I think this is going to be a teaching season for tropical forecasting.
This Blog will die off just like Karen did, now that it just remnants that we will be watching.
1105. FOREX
Quoting 1091. sar2401:

WKC, assuming you missed it, the NHC just declared Karen a remnant low. As I said, I'm not sure it has an LLC, more like a collection of blobs. The NHC says the remnant is headed east at 11 mph, so whatever is left may very well make its only landfall somewhere around the Big Bend area of Florida. I said this yesterday also and many people thought I was nuts.

What is it with you and the name calling? You really do have a bias for storms to head for the Caymans, just like saying a storm that's clearly headed east, and about to become a remnant low, is headed ESE and forming a new LLC. You open yourself up for some ribbing when you keep doing this. Just stick to forecasting what's really happening, not what you'd like to see happen.


What's left of the circulation does seem to be moving ESE, not East.
1106. tramp96
Quoting 1080. Neapolitan:
This image clearly shows the anomalously oddball nature of this week's unprecedented, record-shattering snowfall event:

snow

Damn GW is giving us record snow in the first part of Oct. If GW keeps going like this we will be skiing in July.
Quoting 1094. SLU:


The tropical season is done. The wave in the EATL probably won't develop given the stable air in the CATL graveyard. Look for the models to drop this system in the next couple of days once they begin to resolve the poor thermodynamic environment better.

Models r suggesting this will stay quite low as it crosses the ATL... just about the only scenario where it would stand a chance of making it to TS. But we have at least 5 days before we can seriously consider this a contender at all.
Quoting 1073. sar2401:

That's my belief. These active periods average about 20 years. 1995 to 2012 isn't all that far off the average. These multi-decadal active periods also tend to have their most active seasons about in the middle of the cycle, and 2004-2005 are also in the right time period. Most weather is characterized by persistence. During the height of the last active period, it wasn't hard to forecast that the next year would be much higher than average. If 2014 turns out to be average or below average, I think it will be pretty certain we will be headed into the next quiet multi-decadal period.
Good morning everyone...I agree with you SAR, furthermore the active period that started in 1995 actually began active in both 1995 and 1996. 2004 and 2005 were the middle part of the period and was active, and If I'm not mistaken 2010-2012 saw a record for amount of storms in a 3 year span. So I guess what I'm trying to say is you start with a bang and end with a bang. We will see as time passes on though if we are both correct in that we are entering a quiet multi-decadal cycle, the next 2 seasons should be enough to determine that, if we don't get an El-Nino and things stay quiet that will be your indicator.
Quoting 1106. tramp96:

Damn GW is giving us record snow in the first part of Oct. If GW keeps going like this we will be skiing in July.
And going to the beach in January.
Quoting 1092. BahaHurican:
@ Caribboy...



This was Friday... but the wx has been pretty much like this most of the last week. This is the first week since July that it hasn't rained heavily here at least some part of every single day.

So maybe u guys will get some rain... soon...


Thanks for the picture (is it in the N Bahamas ?) :-) Great weather indeed, same as ours for the past few weeks.

Right now it looks like some thunderstorms are trying to build to our east (Barbuda), will see if they finally reach us later this afternoon. Would be nice, but........ there is a huge difference between wishes and reality lol, especially this year.

I'm going to the beach now... see you later...


(Looking North)
Quoting 1110. CaribBoy:


Thanks for the picture (is it in the N Bahamas ?) :-) Great weather indeed, same as ours for the past few weeks.

Right now it looks like some thunderstorms are trying to build to our east (Barbuda), will see if they finally reach us later this afternoon. Would be nice, but........ there is a huge difference between wishes and reality lol, especially this year.

I'm going to the beach now... see you later...


(Looking North)
Have fun! The photo is of NW New Providence, not too far from the airport. I may go out there later, though I don't know about actually getting wet...

lol

And maybe those clouds will move WEST they way they are supposed to....
And Karen was supposed to be a cat 1 hurricance now JEEEEZ!
This most likely will be our last Cape-Verde storm of the season. After that focus will once again need to be shifted to the Caribbean.

1114. SLU
Quoting 1102. allancalderini:
It might develop but into another td or weak ts.


Quoting 1107. BahaHurican:
Models r suggesting this will stay quite low as it crosses the ATL... just about the only scenario where it would stand a chance of making it to TS. But we have at least 5 days before we can seriously consider this a contender at all.


For and shot at development it has to be south of 15 - 17 north by the time it gets to 50 west. Anything higher up and cooler SSTs, shear and dry air will kill it ... like it did Dorian and Erin and Humberto and Jerry and ...
1115. sar2401
Quoting FOREX:


What's left of the circulation does seem to be moving ESE, not East.

The NHC doesn't agree, and, frankly, the elongated kind of center is so diffuse that the only thing I'm sure of is that it's not headed west. ;-)
Quoting 1106. tramp96:

Damn GW is giving us record snow in the first part of Oct. If GW keeps going like this we will be skiing in July.


I'm pretty sure you don't understand what you are saying. Weather is not climate, regional is not global, so on and so on. Take your false equivalency somewhere else.
I suspect this winter will be a bust again.I'm not even looking forward to it.Just bring on spring...Hurricane season for me has ended...
1118. guygee
Quoting 1095. sar2401:

Yes, but you're apparently confused on what I wrote. It's certainly possible to make forecasts based on things we know for sure have happened since 1800, like multi-decadal active and inactive seasons. It is not possible to make accurate predictions about how many storms an "average" season has when we have no clue about an "average" season before 1800. Unless you believe we have seen every permutation of both hurricanes and hurricane seasons since 1800, it's a well accepted principle of statistics that making extrapolations from extremely small sample sizes is always going to produce errors. We just don't know either the type or magnitude of the errors because they haven't happened to us yet. If you can refute that using statistical evidence, I'm all ears.
Outside of well-understood natural variations largely due to the ENSO pseudo-oscillations, there is a large amount of temporal correlation in the climate system: 1)Milankovitch orbital cycles that have caused the largest changes in long-term climate are on the order of tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of years, 2)discounting the predictable effects of large volcanic eruptions, the variance of solar power flux at the surface of the earth has not changed by more than a couple tenths of one percent over the last one thousand years, 3)the oceans by far store most of the energy available in the climate system.

The only reason not to trust over one hundred years of sampling is that we are beginning to change the climate more quickly due to our large population and resulting large additions to the greenhouse gas inventory of the atmosphere.

For this very same reason if we took samples far back into another age of the climate, say the Mid-Holocene Climatic Optimum, we would sampling from a different population.

Climate change is a non-stationary process. If you have even the smallest knowledge of statistics this should be obvious. It is also a chaotic process. So having many older samples would be misleading, sampling from other underlying populations that no longer have any relevance to today's climate. You should know this!
1119. sar2401
I'm more than a little surprised that the NHC declared Karen a remnant low as quickly as it did. It still has winds of 30 mph, there is still a poorly defined but existent center, and it's still maintaining its identify. This is part of the definition of a TD, and I've seen a lot worse classified as a TD. I realize it's not going to undergo a miraculous rebirth, but I guess I would have waited for it to either get on the coast or have the front a lot closer. It's almost like the forecasts for Karen were so bad that the NHC would like to round file this one ASAP. It's like having a crazy aunt come to visit. A day or two is OK, but, after that, you start easing her out the door. :-)
1120. guygee
Quoting 1119. sar2401:
I'm more than a little surprised that the NHC declared Karen a remnant low as quickly as it did. It still has winds of 30 mph, there is still a poorly defined but existent center, and it's still maintaining its identify. This is part of the definition of a TD, and I've seen a lot worse classified as a TD. I realize it's not going to undergo a miraculous rebirth, but I guess I would have waited for it to either get on the coast or have the front a lot closer. It's almost like the forecasts for Karen were so bad that the NHC would like to round file this one ASAP. It's like having a crazy aunt come to visit. A day or two is OK, but, after that, you start easing her out the door. :-)
LOL, I agree with this one.
Quoting 1117. washingtonian115:
I suspect this winter will be a bust again.I'm not even looking forward to it.Just bring on spring...Hurricane season for me has ended...



Winter has not even started yet
1123. Patrap
Houston 59 F

Quoting 1121. Tazmanian:



Winter has not even started yet
But I don't expect much from it like the last few winters.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1126. sar2401
Quoting guygee:
Outside of well-understood natural variations largely due to the ENSO pseudo-oscillations, there is a large amount of temporal correlation in the climate system: 1)Milankovitch orbital cycles that have caused the largest changes in long-term climate are on the order of tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of years, 2)discounting the predictable effects of large volcanic eruptions, the variance of solar power flux at the surface of the earth has not varied by more than a couple tenths of one percent over the last one thousand years, 3)the oceans by far store most of the energy available in the climate system.

The only reason not to trust over one hundred years of sampling is that we are beginning to change the climate more quickly due to our large population and resulting large additions to the greenhouse gas inventory of the atmosphere.

For this very same reason if we took samples far back into another age of the climate, say the Mid-Holocene Climatic Optimum, we would sampling from a different population.

Climate change is a non-stationary process. If you have even the smallest knowledge of statistics this should be obvious. It is also a chaotic process. So having many older samples would be misleading, sampling from other underlying populations that no longer have any relevance to today's climate. You should know this!

No, you're making an assumption that can't be proven. You should know this! You have absolutely no idea if, using samples from the last 10 centuries would improve our forecasting or not. One of the ways to smooth out chaos is to use the largest sample size available. Saying that having more sample available would make things worse is totally nonsensical from a statistical point of view. Again, my issue is not that we understand general climate for the past 10,000 years. We do. We do not, and can not, with our present level of knowledge, know if any particular time period within that 10,000 years had many, a few, or no periods when we had many more or many fewer hurricanes in a season than we have now. We also don't know the absolute limit in size of a hurricane can attain. We make a lot of assumptions, based on a lot of other assumptions, but we don't know.

My minor was in stat, and I spent a lot of hours sitting in class with professors teaching me all this. I'll be happy to have a discussion with you, but my years listening to professors lecture me ended about 30 years ago.
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
Quoting 1089. SLU:
A record breaking season for all the right (wrong) reasons.


What record(s) did this season break?
1129. Dakster
Quoting 1128. 12george1:

What record(s) did this season break?


Shortest tempers of wunderbloggers.
Riverside, Jurupa Valley, CA (Indian Hills), Jurupa Valley, California (PWS)
Updated: 9:57 AM PDT on October 06, 2013
Clear
73.4 °F
Clear
Humidity: 14%
Dew Point: 20 °F

Wind: 1.3 mph from the East
Wind Gust: 2.4 mph
Pressure: 30.07 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 74 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 3.0 out of 16
Pollen: 5.30 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1000 ft

Still dry here....
1132. guygee
Quoting 1126. sar2401:

No, you're making an assumption that can't be proven. You should know this! You have absolutely no idea if, using samples from the last 10 centuries would improve our forecasting or not. One of the ways to smooth out chaos is to use the largest sample size available. Saying that having more sample available would make things worse is totally nonsensical from a statistical point of view. Again, my issue is not that we understand general climate for the past 10,000 years. We do. We do not, and can not, with our present level of knowledge, know if any particular time period within that 10,000 years had many, a few, or no periods when we had many more or many fewer hurricanes in a season than we have now. We also don't know the absolute limit in size of a hurricane can attain. We make a lot of assumptions, based on a lot of other assumptions, but we don't know.

My minor was in stat, and I spent a lot of hours sitting in class with professors teaching me all this. I'll be happy to have a discussion with you, but my years listening to professors lecture me ended about 30 years ago.
You are completely ignoring the well-developed scientific field of paleoclimatology. With your reasoning we have almost no evidence of evolution in higher animals either. Are you a creationist too?
YELLOW AT 10% IS NEW