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Little Change to Karen; U.S. HIt By a Blizzard, Severe Weather, and Santa Ana Winds

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:44 PM GMT on October 04, 2013

Tropical Storm Karen is proving resilient in the face of dry air and high wind shear, as the storm heads north-northwest at 10 mph towards Louisiana. A NOAA hurricane hunter plane is in the storm this morning, and found top surface winds near 60 mph and a central pressure of 1001 mb, a pressure 2 mb higher than on Thursday evening. NOAA buoy 42001 located about 60 miles (95 km) north-northeast of the center reported a sustained wind of 38 mph, gusting to 49 mph, at 8:45 am EDT. Satellite loops show that Karen has maintained a vigorous circulation this morning in the face of high wind shear of 25 knots from strong upper-level winds out of the west. These winds have driven dry air from the Western Gulf of Mexico into Karen's core, making it difficult for heavy thunderstorms to build on the west and south sides of Karen's center of circulation. Karen has a strong upper-level outflow channel to its north that is helping ventilate the storm, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). Ocean heat content is 20 - 40 kJ per square centimeter, which is fairly typical for this time of year, and does not increase the odds of rapid intensification. Strong southeasterly winds ahead of Karen are pushing tides about 1 - 1.5' above normal along most of the Louisiana and Mississippi coast, as seen on our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Karen, taken at approximately 3:30 pm EDT on October 3, 2013. At the time, Karen had top winds of 65 mph. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Brooding clouds from Tropical Storm Karen hover over the waters offshore of Cancun, Mexico, at 11 am EDT October 3, 2013. Image credit: Mindy Saylor.

Forecast for Karen
Wind shear for the next three days is expected to stay high, around 20 - 30 knots, according to the 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast. The atmosphere is quite dry over the Western Gulf of Mexico, and this dry air combined with high wind shear will retard development, making only slow intensification possible until landfall. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will bring higher wind shear near 30 knots and turn Karen more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Saturday. The higher shear, combined with ocean temperatures that will drop to 28°C, may be able to induce weakening, and NHC has sharply reduced its odds of Karen achieving hurricane strength. The 5 am EDT Friday wind probability forecast from NHC put Karen's best chance of becoming a hurricane as a 23% chance on Sunday at 2 am EDT. This is down from the 41% odds given in Thursday afternoon's forecast. Most of the models show Karen intensifying by 5 - 10 mb on Saturday afternoon and evening as the storm nears the coast, as the storm interacts with the trough of low pressure turning it to the northeast. This predicted intensification may be because of stronger upper-level outflow developing (due to diverging winds aloft sucking up more air from the surface.) We don't have much skill making hurricane intensity forecasts, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Karen do the opposite of what the models predict, and decay to a weak tropical storm just before landfall, due to strong wind shear. In any case, residents of New Orleans should feel confident that their levee system will easily withstand any storm surge Karen may generate, as rapid intensification of Karen to a Category 3 or stronger hurricane has a only a minuscule probability of occurring (1% chance in the latest NHC forecast.)

Since Karen is expected to make a sharp course change to the northeast near the time it approaches the south coast of Louisiana, the models show a wide range of possible landfall locations. The European and UKMET models are the farthest west, with a landfall occurring west of New Orleans. The GFS model is at the opposite extreme, showing a landfall about 400 miles to the east, near Apalachicola, Florida. NHC is splitting the difference between these extremes, which is a reasonable compromise. Most of Karen's heavy thunderstorms will be displaced to the east by high wind shear when the storm makes landfall, and there will likely be relatively low rainfall totals of 1 - 3" to the immediate west of where the center. Much higher rainfall totals of 4 - 8" can be expected to the east. NHC's 5 am EDT Friday wind probability forecast shows the highest odds of tropical storm-force winds to be at the tip of the Mississippi River at Buras, Louisiana: 66%. New Orleans, Gulfport, Mobile, and Pensacola have odds ranging from 47% - 51%.

Most significant fire threat for Southern California in the past 5 years
A Santa Ana wind event is building over Southern California this morning, where wind gusts in excess of 50 mph have already been observed this morning. From the Los Angeles NWS office:

"Most significant fire weather threat across Southern California in past 5 years as strong Santa Ana wind event unfolds. In addition to the strength of winds being projected...the concerns with this event include the widespread nature and long duration of Santa Ana winds...very long period of single digit humidities...and extremely dry fuels approaching record levels. Red flag warnings are in effect for much of Los Angeles and Ventura counties overnight into Sunday. The onset of the offshore winds are expected to begin across the mountains by late evening...then descend into the lower elevations overnight. The peak of this Santa Ana wind event will likely be late tonight through Saturday morning...with the strongest winds focused across Los Angeles and Ventura counties."


Figure 3. A moderate risk for severe weather is predicted for this afternoon over Iowa and surrounding states.

A blizzard and a severe weather outbreak in the Midwest
The same low pressure system that is expected to turn Tropical Storm Karen to the northeast this weekend is hammering the Midwest with a variety of extreme weather today. Blizzard warnings are flying in Wyoming, Nebraska, and South Dakota from the storm, and a significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes is expected over much of Iowa this afternoon. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has done some research to see the last time a blizzard, major severe weather outbreak, tropical storm, and extreme fire danger all threatened the U.S. at the same time, and has not been able to find such an event in past history.

Portlight disaster relief charity ready to respond to Karen
The Portlight.org disaster relief charity, founded and staffed by members of the wunderground community, are ready to respond to Tropical Storm Karen, if they are needed. You can check out their progress on the Portlight Blog or donate to Portlight's disaster relief fund at the portlight.org website.

I'll have a new post this afternoon.

Jeff Masters
Portlight volunteers at Biloxi shelter
Portlight volunteers at Biloxi shelter

Hurricane Karen Atlas

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 500. IKE:
Karen path through the oil patch
oh brother more excuses now for gas to go up even though this tiny storm wont be much
It's obviously moving north-weast.
Quoting 499. MiamiHeat305:


not sure, think it was charley tho
yeah charley then frances then jeanne all in 2004, but been saved since then very weird
...KAREN HEADING FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
1:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 4
Location: 25.8N 90.2W
Moving: NNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
Quoting 500. IKE:
Karen path through the oil patch


Are those sustained winds or gusts in the picture?
Quoting 501. mrsbinder:
oh brother more excuses now for gas to go up even though this tiny storm wont be much


They actually started waiting for excuses now?
Quoting 497. spleenstomper:


My husband got through his surgical residency by dreaming how he was going to quit and be a professional wrestler. The "spleenstomper" would be his finishing move. Lol. The handle is usually available when he or I register places.


Now that is a good story!
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
100 PM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013

...KAREN HEADING FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 90.2W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
If you were at sea level just west of Karen's center, what would you see?

How high are the light circulating clouds we see on a visible satellite shot.

Would it look like a big watersprout , that is with clouds all the way down to the water surface?

Or just high circulating clouds?
Took a two-hour break from the loops so I could see a better short-term trend. The convection near the Western edge of the COC has been blown back off to the East in the last few hours. The sheer is not letting up right now and preventing strengthening. Also, the COC has not moved much at all in the last few hours.

Starting to wonder if it is starting to feel the effects of the approaching trof and slowing down to a crawl.
25.783N 90.133W 1001.3 mb
in that area has there been any decent storms since the oil spill?
getting slower! Here comes the stall! Mite not move until the front really pushes it
1001.3mb located at 25.8N 90.1W. Lowest pressure found on that pass.
Quoting 513. bigwes6844:
getting slower! Here comes the stall! Mite not move until the front really pushes it
people said hear comes the stall yesterday and there wasnt any stall




COC appears to be at 25.8N & 90.3W on this pic.
Quoting 433. Patrap:






This map seems to show Karen's windfield in a more NW direction, considering her location.
Quoting 502. MississippiWx:
It's obviously moving north-weast.


Coordinates 3 hours ago were 25.6N & 90.2W. Coordinates at the most recent update 25.8N & 90.2W, that's .2N and .0W movement, not much West movement anymore, pretty sure she's made her turn more to the North!
my husband just said we wont get anything here in orlando and to come cook dinner and stop listening to all this wish wash lolol
Quoting 512. islander101010:
in that area has there been any decent storms since the oil spill?


Last year Isaac!
Quoting 516. GetReal:

COC appears to be at 25.8N & 90.3W on this pic.


Looks like that image is from nearly 2 hours ago is it not?
my husband just said we wont get anything here in orlando and to come cook dinner and stop listening to all this wish wash lolol




thinks your husband is a smart man
It look's like it's not moving nnw anymore. .1 degrees eastern than the 1.00pm advisory. Could be wobbling next few hours before the nne-ne turn begin. JMO
We have to assume that NHC is correct with 9 mph from their just released info but 9 mph probably looks like a stall from a satellite shot..... However, it has slowed down in the last few hours (we were seeing movement this am); I am not seeing much movement North at the moment and the coc is exposed.
Quoting 518. 69Viking:


Coordinates 3 hours ago were 25.6N & 90.2W. Coordinates at the most recent update 25.8N & 90.2W, that's .2N and .0W movement, not much West movement anymore, pretty sure she's made her turn more to the North!


Lol. Please re-read my post carefully.
Quoting 509. nearthesea:
If you were at sea level just west of Karen's center, what would you see?

How high are the light circulating clouds we see on a visible satellite shot.

Would it look like a big watersprout , that is with clouds all the way down to the water surface?

Or just high circulating clouds?


Hold on: let me swim out there & take a peak around, if I can hold my breathe that long -- has to be underwater for easier swimming. :-)
Just kill it.

I'm ready for this season to be over.

they have been saying karen would be a hurricane the past 3 days ??? whats wrong again?
Quoting 515. mrsbinder:
people said hear comes the stall yesterday and there wasnt any stall
im telling u its gonna potentially stall this time landfall wont be until Saturday night late almost Sunday early morning so yes a stall will most likely happen until it feels the cold front
Noticing new cluster of lightning strikes only a few miles SE of the CoC....
Still sticking with the Big Bend Area, preferably Cedar Key as landfall.

Quoting 521. babomb:


Looks like that image is from nearly 2 hours ago is it not?


Your right it is about 1.5 hours ago.
thats right my character needs to get real.. there was talk of what happen to all the oil
Disappointed by the tracks of the future CATL storm...

Hopefully it will take more time to develop and do so closer to the Windwards.

I AM REALLY BORED WITH THE FISH STORMS! I want a nice surprise JUST FOR ONCE!
storm was moving at 15mph at once now its down to 9mph.
You could outrun the circulation to the North Gulf Coast at the moment..............
1002.4 mb
(~ 29.60 inHg)
540. IKE
Is this the lowest pressure found???....

1002.4 mb
(~ 29.60 inHg)

Karen's motion the early part of today has been more northward than anything else. This puts it slightly to the east of the forecast track. However, Karen was most likely feeling the affects of the deep convection that almost covered the center this morning and was thus tugged a little more northerly. Now that the convection has been blown away again, more westerly wobbles could be in store. Recon will tell the tale.
Quoting 532. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Still sticking with the Big Bend Area, preferably Cedar Key as landfall.



Lol. Scott, is that you?
I AM REALLY BORED WITH THE FISH STORMS! I want a nice surprise JUST FOR ONCE!


quit whining
Quoting 540. IKE:
Is this the lowest pressure found???....

1002.4 mb
(~ 29.60 inHg)


1001.3mb at 90.13W 25.78N.
Quoting 540. IKE:
Is this the lowest pressure found???....

1002.4 mb
(~ 29.60 inHg)



No. 1001.3mb.
546. IKE

Quoting MississippiWx:
1001.3mb located at 25.8N 90.1W. Lowest pressure found on that pass.
Ok...I missed that recon page.
Quoting 529. bigwes6844:
im telling u its gonna potentially stall this time landfall wont be until Saturday night late almost Sunday early morning so yes a stall will most likely happen until it feels the cold front


Wes, need to kick in your spidey sense...
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
17:55:30Z 25.700N 90.117W 841.7 mb
(~ 24.86 inHg) 1,550 meters
(~ 5,085 feet) 1002.4 mb
(~ 29.60 inHg) - From 265° at 9 knots
(From the W at ~ 10.3 mph) 21.7°C
(~ 71.1°F) 19.6°C
(~ 67.3°F) 10 knots
(~ 11.5 mph) 28 knots
(~ 32.2 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 25.2 knots (~ 29.0 mph)
280.0%
17:56:00Z 25.667N 90.133W 842.8 mb
(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,540 meters
(~ 5,052 feet) 1002.7 mb
(~ 29.61 inHg) - From 279° at 13 knots
(From the W at ~ 14.9 mph) 21.9°C
(~ 71.4°F) 19.4°C
(~ 66.9°F) 14 knots
(~ 16.1 mph) 32 knots
(~ 36.8 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 29.7 knots (~ 34.2 mph)
228.6%
17:56:30Z 25.650N 90.150W 842.0 mb
(~ 24.86 inHg) 1,548 meters
(~ 5,079 feet) 1002.9 mb
(~ 29.62 inHg) - From 299° at 15 knots
(From the WNW at ~ 17.2 mph) 21.9°C
(~ 71.4°F) 19.1°C
(~ 66.4°F) 16 knots
(~ 18.4 mph) 39 knots
(~ 44.8 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 36.6 knots (~ 42.0 mph)
Tropical Storm 243.8%
17:57:00Z 25.633N 90.183W 843.2 mb
(~ 24.90 inHg) 1,540 meters
(~ 5,052 feet) 1003.5 mb
(~ 29.63 inHg) - From 301° at 18 knots
(From the WNW at ~ 20.7 mph) 21.2°C
(~ 70.2°F) 19.0°C
(~ 66.2°F) 21 knots
(~ 24.1 mph) 41 knots*
(~ 47.1 mph*) 1 mm/hr*
(~ 0.04 in/hr*) 35.1 knots* (~ 40.4 mph*)
Tropical Storm* 195.2%*
17:57:30Z 25.617N 90.200W 842.5 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,547 meters
(~ 5,075 feet) 1003.9 mb
(~ 29.65 inHg) - From 308° at 24 knots
(From the NW at ~ 27.6 mph) 20.9°C
(~ 69.6°F) 18.8°C
(~ 65.8°F) 25 knots
(~ 28.7 mph) 42 knots*
(~ 48.3 mph*) 1 mm/hr*
(~ 0.04 in/hr*) 40.3 knots* (~ 46.4 mph*)
Tropical Storm* 168.0%*
17:58:00Z 25.583N 90.233W 842.2 mb
(~ 24.87 inHg) 1,553 meters
(~ 5,095 feet) 1004.6 mb
(~ 29.67 inHg) - From 312° at 26 knots
(From the NW at ~ 29.9 mph) 20.2°C
(~ 68.4°F) 18.7°C
(~ 65.7°F) 27 knots
(~ 31.0 mph) 41 knots
(~ 47.1 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 39.5 knots (~ 45.4 mph)
Tropical Storm 151.9%
17:58:30Z 25.567N 90.250W 842.5 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,555 meters
(~ 5,102 feet) 1005.6 mb
(~ 29.70 inHg) - From 309° at 30 knots
(From the NW at ~ 34.5 mph) 19.2°C
(~ 66.6°F) 18.6°C
(~ 65.5°F) 32 knots
(~ 36.8 mph) 41 knots
(~ 47.1 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 38.4 knots (~ 44.2 mph)
Tropical Storm 128.1%
17:59:00Z 25.550N 90.283W 842.3 mb
(~ 24.87 inHg) 1,556 meters
(~ 5,105 feet) 1005.9 mb
(~ 29.70 inHg) - From 309° at 31 knots
(From the NW at ~ 35.6 mph) 18.7°C
(~ 65.7°F) 18.3°C
(~ 64.9°F) 33 knots
(~ 37.9 mph) 40 knots
(~ 46.0 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 37.6 knots (~ 43.2 mph)
Tropical Storm 121.2%
17:59:30Z 25.533N 90.300W 843.1 mb
(~ 24.90 inHg) 1,553 meters
(~ 5,095 feet) 1006.2 mb
(~ 29.71 inHg) - From 314° at 35 knots
(From the NW at ~ 40.2 mph) 18.8°C
(~ 65.8°F) 18.1°C
(~ 64.6°F) 36 knots
(~ 41.4 mph) 38 knots
(~ 43.7 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 36.9 knots (~ 42.5 mph)
Tropical Storm 105.6%
18:00:00Z 25.517N 90.333W 841.8 mb
(~ 24.86 inHg) 1,567 meters
(~ 5,141 feet) 1006.4 mb
(~ 29.72 inHg) - From 323° at 38 knots
(From the NW at ~ 43.7 mph) 19.2°C
(~ 66.6°F) 17.7°C
(~ 63.9°F) 39 knots
(~ 44.8 mph) 36 knots
(~ 41.4 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 35.1 knots (~ 40.3 mph)
Tropical Storm 92.3%
18:00:30Z 25.483N 90.350W 842.9 mb
(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,560 meters
(~ 5,118 feet) 1006.9 mb
(~ 29.73 inHg) - From 322° at 36 knots
(From the NW at ~ 41.4 mph) 19.1°C
(~ 66.4°F) 17.4°C
(~ 63.3°F) 37 knots
(~ 42.5 mph) 34 knots
(~ 39.1 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 33.1 knots (~ 38.0 mph)
91.9%
18:01:00Z 25.467N 90.383W 842.5 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,564 meters
(~ 5,131 feet) 1007.1 mb
(~ 29.74 inHg) - From 321° at 35 knots
(From the NW at ~ 40.2 mph) 19.3°C
(~ 66.7°F) 17.1°C
(~ 62.8°F) 36 knots
(~ 41.4 mph) 34 knots
(~ 39.1 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 33.1 knots (~ 38.0 mph)
94.4%
18:01:30Z 25.450N 90.400W 842.8 mb
(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,566 meters
(~ 5,138 feet) 1007.4 mb
(~ 29.75 inHg) - From 317° at 31 knots
(From the NW at ~ 35.6 mph) 19.2°C
(~ 66.6°F) 16.8°C
(~ 62.2°F) 34 knots
(~ 39.1 mph) 33 knots
(~ 37.9 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 30.1 knots (~ 34.6 mph)
97.1%
18:02:00Z 25.433N 90.433W 842.6 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,568 meters
(~ 5,144 feet) 1007.6 mb
(~ 29.75 inHg) - From 315° at 29 knots
(From the NW at ~ 33.3 mph) 19.1°C
(~ 66.4°F) 16.6°C
(~ 61.9°F) 30 knots
(~ 34.5 mph) 33 knots
(~ 37.9 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 31.9 knots (~ 36.7 mph)
110.0%
18:02:30Z 25.400N 90.450W 842.2 mb
(~ 24.87 inHg) 1,573 meters
(~ 5,161 feet) 1007.9 mb
(~ 29.76 inHg) - From 319° at 28 knots
(From the NW at ~ 32.2 mph) 19.2°C
(~ 66.6°F) 16.4°C
(~ 61.5°F) 28 knots
(~ 32.2 mph) 31 knots
(~ 35.6 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 31.0 knots (~ 35.6 mph)
110.7%
18:03:00Z 25.383N 90.467W 842.6 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,573 meters
(~ 5,161 feet) 1008.2 mb
(~ 29.77 inHg) - From 322° at 27 knots
(From the NW at ~ 31.0 mph) 19.5°C
(~ 67.1°F) 16.3°C
(~ 61.3°F) 27 knots
(~ 31.0 mph) 31 knots
(~ 35.6 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 31.0 knots (~ 35.6 mph)
114.8%
18:03:30Z 25.367N 90.500W 842.5 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,574 meters
(~ 5,164 feet) 1008.1 mb
(~ 29.77 inHg) - From 328° at 25 knots
(From the NNW at ~ 28.7 mph) 19.5°C
(~ 67.1°F) 16.1°C
(~ 61.0°F) 26 knots
(~ 29.9 mph) 31 knots
(~ 35.6 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 29.8 knots (~ 34.3 mph)
119.2%
18:04:00Z 25.350N 90.517W 842.5 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,577 meters
(~ 5,174 feet) 1008.6 mb
(~ 29.78 inHg) - From 325° at 25 knots
(From the NW at ~ 28.7 mph) 19.2°C
(~ 66.6°F) 16.1°C
(~ 61.0°F) 26 knots
(~ 29.9 mph) 30 knots
(~ 34.5 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 28.8 knots (~ 33.2 mph)
115.4%
18:04:30Z 25.317N 90.550W 842.5 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,579 meters
(~ 5,180 feet) 1008.7 mb
(~ 29.79 inHg) - From 323° at 26 knots
(From the NW at ~ 29.9 mph) 19.1°C
(~ 66.4°F) 16.0°C
(~ 60.8°F) 26 knots
(~ 29.9 mph) 30 knots
(~ 34.5 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 30.0 knots (~ 34.5 mph)
115.4%
18:05:00Z 25.300N 90.567W 842.2 mb
(~ 24.87 inHg) 1,581 meters
(~ 5,187 feet) 1008.4 mb
(~ 29.78 inHg) - From 330° at 25 knots
(From the NNW at ~ 28.7 mph) 19.6°C
(~ 67.3°F) 16.0°C
(~ 60.8°F) 26 knots
(~ 29.9 mph) 29 knots
(~ 33.3 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 27.9 knots (~ 32.1 mph)
111.5%
is cedar still possible for a landfall? seriously?
cedar key i meant
Quoting 549. mrsbinder:
is cedar still possible for a landfall? seriously?
cedar key i meant
Temperatures are warming across Iowa. This is breaking up some of the clouds across the state which should in turn allow for a more unstable atmosphere. Wind shear will increase through the afternoon as the center of Atlas moves east.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 90.2W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA
18:05:30Z 25.283N 90.600W 842.9 mb
(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,576 meters
(~ 5,171 feet) 1008.9 mb
(~ 29.79 inHg) - From 323° at 25 knots
(From the NW at ~ 28.7 mph) 19.0°C
(~ 66.2°F) 15.9°C
(~ 60.6°F) 25 knots
(~ 28.7 mph) 29 knots
(~ 33.3 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 29.0 knots (~ 33.3 mph)
116.0%
18:06:00Z 25.250N 90.617W 842.5 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,580 meters
(~ 5,184 feet) 1009.2 mb
(~ 29.80 inHg) - From 322° at 24 knots
(From the NW at ~ 27.6 mph) 18.6°C
(~ 65.5°F) 15.9°C
(~ 60.6°F) 25 knots
(~ 28.7 mph) 28 knots
(~ 32.2 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 26.9 knots (~ 30.9 mph)
112.0%
18:06:30Z 25.233N 90.650W 842.4 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,581 meters
(~ 5,187 feet) 1009.9 mb
(~ 29.82 inHg) - From 314° at 24 knots
(From the NW at ~ 27.6 mph) 17.6°C
(~ 63.7°F) 15.8°C
(~ 60.4°F) 25 knots
(~ 28.7 mph) 27 knots
(~ 31.0 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 25.9 knots (~ 29.8 mph)
108.0%
18:07:00Z 25.217N 90.667W 842.6 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,581 meters
(~ 5,187 feet) 1010.0 mb
(~ 29.83 inHg) - From 312° at 22 knots
(From the NW at ~ 25.3 mph) 17.6°C
(~ 63.7°F) 15.6°C
(~ 60.1°F) 24 knots
(~ 27.6 mph) 25 knots
(~ 28.7 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 22.9 knots (~ 26.4 mph)
104.2%
18:07:30Z 25.200N 90.700W 842.5 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,583 meters
(~ 5,194 feet) 1009.9 mb
(~ 29.82 inHg) - From 311° at 20 knots
(From the NW at ~ 23.0 mph) 17.9°C
(~ 64.2°F) 15.3°C
(~ 59.5°F) 21 knots
(~ 24.1 mph) 25 knots
(~ 28.7 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 23.8 knots (~ 27.4 mph)
119.0%
18:08:00Z 25.167N 90.717W 842.5 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,583 meters
(~ 5,194 feet) 1009.7 mb
(~ 29.82 inHg) - From 312° at 21 knots
(From the NW at ~ 24.1 mph) 18.5°C
(~ 65.3°F) 15.1°C
(~ 59.2°F) 21 knots
(~ 24.1 mph) 25 knots
(~ 28.7 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 25.0 knots (~ 28.7 mph)
119.0%
18:08:30Z 25.150N 90.750W 842.5 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,582 meters
(~ 5,190 feet) 1010.0 mb
(~ 29.83 inHg) - From 316° at 21 knots
(From the NW at ~ 24.1 mph) 18.3°C
(~ 64.9°F) 15.0°C
(~ 59.0°F) 22 knots
(~ 25.3 mph) 25 knots
(~ 28.7 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 23.9 knots (~ 27.4 mph)
113.6%
18:09:00Z 25.133N 90.767W 842.6 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,581 meters
(~ 5,187 feet) 1009.8 mb
(~ 29.82 inHg) - From 317° at 20 knots
(From the NW at ~ 23.0 mph) 18.5°C
(~ 65.3°F) 14.9°C
(~ 58.8°F) 20 knots
(~ 23.0 mph) 24 knots
(~ 27.6 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 24.0 knots (~ 27.6 mph)
120.0%
18:09:30Z 25.117N 90.800W 842.6 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,584 meters
(~ 5,197 feet) 1009.9 mb
(~ 29.82 inHg) - From 313° at 20 knots
(From the NW at ~ 23.0 mph) 18.5°C
(~ 65.3°F) 14.9°C
(~ 58.8°F) 21 knots
(~ 24.1 mph) 23 knots
(~ 26.4 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 21.9 knots (~ 25.2 mph)
109.5%
18:10:00Z 25.083N 90.817W 842.5 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,583 meters
(~ 5,194 feet) 1010.2 mb
(~ 29.83 inHg) - From 305° at 18 knots
(From the NW at ~ 20.7 mph) 18.2°C
(~ 64.8°F) 14.8°C
(~ 58.6°F) 19 knots
(~ 21.8 mph) 21 knots
(~ 24.1 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 19.9 knots (~ 22.9 mph)
110.5%
18:10:30Z 25.067N 90.850W 842.6 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,583 meters
(~ 5,194 feet) 1010.1 mb
(~ 29.83 inHg) - From 303° at 19 knots
(From the WNW at ~ 21.8 mph) 18.3°C
(~ 64.9°F) 14.8°C
(~ 58.6°F) 19 knots
(~ 21.8 mph) 21 knots
(~ 24.1 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 21.0 knots (~ 24.2 mph)
110.5%
18:11:00Z 25.050N 90.867W 842.5 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,585 meters
(~ 5,200 feet) 1010.3 mb
(~ 29.83 inHg) - From 306° at 18 knots
(From the NW at ~ 20.7 mph) 17.8°C
(~ 64.0°F) 14.8°C
(~ 58.6°F) 19 knots
(~ 21.8 mph) 19 knots
(~ 21.8 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 18.0 knots (~ 20.7 mph)
100.0%
18:11:30Z 25.033N 90.883W 843.0 mb
(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,581 meters
(~ 5,187 feet) 1010.6 mb
(~ 29.84 inHg) - From 304° at 18 knots
(From between the WNW and NW at ~ 20.7 mph) 17.5°C
(~ 63.5°F) 14.8°C
(~ 58.6°F) 18 knots
(~ 20.7 mph) 19 knots
(~ 21.8 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 19.0 knots (~ 21.8 mph)
105.6%
18:12:00Z 25.017N 90.917W 842.1 mb
(~ 24.87 inHg) 1,592 meters
(~ 5,223 feet) 1010.7 mb
(~ 29.85 inHg) - From 305° at 19 knots
(From the NW at ~ 21.8 mph) 17.5°C
(~ 63.5°F) 14.8°C
(~ 58.6°F) 19 knots
(~ 21.8 mph) 20 knots
(~ 23.0 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 20.0 knots (~ 23.0 mph)
105.3%
18:12:30Z 24.983N 90.933W 842.6 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,589 meters
(~ 5,213 feet) 1011.0 mb
(~ 29.85 inHg) - From 308° at 19 knots
(From the NW at ~ 21.8 mph) 17.4°C
(~ 63.3°F) 14.7°C
(~ 58.5°F) 20 knots
(~ 23.0 mph) 22 knots
(~ 25.3 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 20.9 knots (~ 24.0 mph)
110.0%
18:13:00Z 24.967N 90.967W 842.4 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,590 meters
(~ 5,217 feet) 1011.7 mb
(~ 29.88 inHg) - From 308° at 19 knots
(From the NW at ~ 21.8 mph) 16.2°C
(~ 61.2°F) 14.7°C
(~ 58.5°F) 21 knots
(~ 24.1 mph) 28 knots
(~ 32.2 mph) 7 mm/hr
(~ 0.28 in/hr) 25.3 knots (~ 29.1 mph)
133.3%
18:13:30Z 24.950N 90.983W 842.8 mb
(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,587 meters
(~ 5,207 feet) 1012.1 mb
(~ 29.89 inHg) - From 311° at 19 knots
(From the NW at ~ 21.8 mph) 15.4°C
(~ 59.7°F) 14.5°C
(~ 58.1°F) 20 knots
(~ 23.0 mph) 27 knots*
(~ 31.0 mph*) 2 mm/hr*
(~ 0.08 in/hr*) 25.7 knots* (~ 29.5 mph*)
135.0%*
18:14:00Z 24.933N 91.017W 842.5 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,590 meters
(~ 5,217 feet) 1011.7 mb
(~ 29.88 inHg) - From 310° at 18 knots
(From the NW at ~ 20.7 mph) 16.6°C
(~ 61.9°F) 14.1°C
(~ 57.4°F) 19 knots
(~ 21.8 mph) - - - -
18:14:30Z 24.900N 91.033W 842.5 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,590 meters
(~ 5,217 feet) 1011.4 mb
(~ 29.87 inHg) - From 310° at 19 knots
(From the NW at ~ 21.8 mph) 17.0°C
(~ 62.6°F) 13.9°C
(~ 57.0°F) 19 knots
(~ 21.8 mph) - - - -
18:15:00Z 24.883N 91.067W 842.4 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,590 meters
(~ 5,217 feet) 1011.5 mb
(~ 29.87 inHg) - From 307° at 18 knots
(From the NW at ~ 20.7 mph) 17.0°C
(~ 62.6°F) 13.9°C
(~ 57.0°F) 18 knots
(~ 20.7 mph) - - - -
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
Quoting 543. ricderr:
I AM REALLY BORED WITH THE FISH STORMS! I want a nice surprise JUST FOR ONCE!


quit whining


Give me a storm or plenty of rain then I will stop lol
Quoting 550. mrsbinder:
cedar key i meantcedar key i meant


Not according to the probabilities last issued by the NHC

CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10)

Very slight probabilities that you'll even experience any significant winds.
Quoting 551. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Temperatures are warming across Iowa. This is breaking up some of the clouds across the state which should in turn allow for a more unstable atmosphere. Wind shear will increase through the afternoon as the center of Atlas moves east.



So...just shrug to get rid of it?
Quoting 527. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just kill it.

I'm ready for this season to be over.


I really think that once it starts a solid NE movement, then it won't look like that.
Quoting 528. mrsbinder:
they have been saying karen would be a hurricane the past 3 days ??? whats wrong again?


It's 2013 -
Quoting 527. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just kill it.

I'm ready for this season to be over.



RIP Karen
Quoting 555. daddyjames:


Not according to the probabilities last issued by the NHC

CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10)

Very slight probabilities that you'll even experience any significant winds.
ok thanks thats what hubby has been saying all week
Quoting 554. CaribBoy:


Give me a storm or plenty of rain then I will stop lol


I thought you had raining getting geared up for your area!
Quoting 561. CaribBoy:


RIP Karen
Another one that is biting the dust.


Needless to say that the skies have darkened here, and easterly breeze picking up some.
Weak sister.

Quoting 565. allancalderini:
Another one that is biting the dust.
Naw, it's biting dry air and wind! DOA?
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 18:04Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 12L in 2013
Storm Name: Karen (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 17:52:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°46'N 90°07'W (25.7667N 90.1167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 291 miles (468 km) to the S (181°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,460m (4,790ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 48kts (~ 55.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the N (359°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 130° at 43kts (From the SE at ~ 49.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 80 nautical miles (92 statute miles) to the NNE (33°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,530m (5,020ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 23°C (73°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 43kts (~ 49.5mph) which was observed 80 nautical miles (92 statute miles) to the NNE (33°) from the flight level center at 17:29:30Z
Why is there still a Hurricane Watch up? Is there something they are not telling us?
@NWSNewOrleans 3m
1:15p - Recon plane flying around in Karen. So far est winds ~55mph. Look for full update after the 4pm advisory from NHC is issued.
Quoting 538. LAbonbon:


The flow of it all still looks more northwesterly, IMO, and Karen doesn't know she's "supposed" to turn, does she? No. I think we see the cold front coming & start figuring she'll have to turn, so may tend to read into her an anticipation of that, also.

But,...storms can't anticipate. After all, she's only a storm; but, if she could,... (hmmm, sounds like a bank commercial deja vu, somehow.)
Quoting 566. CaneHunter031472:



Toward the end you can see a shift to the north and close to being stationary as well.


But I just looked at the Satellite and it looks like another small west turn.
Karen is weak... Levi was right.

Tidbits

Bravo to him...
Quoting 519. mrsbinder:
my husband just said we wont get anything here in orlando and to come cook dinner and stop listening to all this wish wash lolol
that's exactly what my WIFE says to me!
Quoting 565. allancalderini:
Another one that is biting the dust.
This is really starting to get ridiculous. And no I'm not wishing for death and destruction, but we can't even seem to get an organized tropical storm. The only organized system this year was Humberto and even he didn't last that long. The ACE continues to be low. Mid-Oceanic Trough causing wind shear in the MDR, SAL, and dry continental air preventing anything close to home from getting strong can be blamed for the lack of activity this season. In fact this season has performed worst then some El-Nino season's. It's a head scratcher for sure and one that will be subject to research.
Quoting 563. WalkingInTheSun:


I thought you had raining getting geared up for your area!


The GFS has backed off AS USUAL.... :(

NO RAIN EVENT ANYMORE. WHAT A BUST 2013 IS!!!
Quoting 569. seer2012:
Naw, it's biting dry air and wind! DOA?


I hope they don't cancel Cruising the coast for this.
Quoting 571. mrmombq:
Why is there still a Hurricane Watch up? Is there something they are not telling us?
there may be a very slight chance and also i think that kind of watch authorizes the gov to do certain things..wont be a hurricane anymore unless something drastic happens
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
18:05:30Z 25.283N 90.600W 842.9 mb
(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,576 meters
(~ 5,171 feet) 1008.9 mb
(~ 29.79 inHg) - From 323° at 25 knots
(From the NW at ~ 28.7 mph) 19.0°C
(~ 66.2°F) 15.9°C
(~ 60.6°F) 25 knots
(~ 28.7 mph) 29 knots
(~ 33.3 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 29.0 knots (~ 33.3 mph)
116.0%
18:06:00Z 25.250N 90.617W 842.5 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,580 meters
(~ 5,184 feet) 1009.2 mb
(~ 29.80 inHg) - From 322° at 24 knots
(From the NW at ~ 27.6 mph) 18.6°C
(~ 65.5°F) 15.9°C
(~ 60.6°F) 25 knots
(~ 28.7 mph) 28 knots
(~ 32.2 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 26.9 knots (~ 30.9 mph)
112.0%
18:06:30Z 25.233N 90.650W 842.4 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,581 meters
(~ 5,187 feet) 1009.9 mb
(~ 29.82 inHg) - From 314° at 24 knots
(From the NW at ~ 27.6 mph) 17.6°C
(~ 63.7°F) 15.8°C
(~ 60.4°F) 25 knots
(~ 28.7 mph) 27 knots
(~ 31.0 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 25.9 knots (~ 29.8 mph)
108.0%
18:07:00Z 25.217N 90.667W 842.6 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,581 meters
(~ 5,187 feet) 1010.0 mb
(~ 29.83 inHg) - From 312° at 22 knots
(From the NW at ~ 25.3 mph) 17.6°C
(~ 63.7°F) 15.6°C
(~ 60.1°F) 24 knots
(~ 27.6 mph) 25 knots
(~ 28.7 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 22.9 knots (~ 26.4 mph)
104.2%
18:07:30Z 25.200N 90.700W 842.5 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,583 meters
(~ 5,194 feet) 1009.9 mb
(~ 29.82 inHg) - From 311° at 20 knots
(From the NW at ~ 23.0 mph) 17.9°C
(~ 64.2°F) 15.3°C
(~ 59.5°F) 21 knots
(~ 24.1 mph) 25 knots
(~ 28.7 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 23.8 knots (~ 27.4 mph)
119.0%
18:08:00Z 25.167N 90.717W 842.5 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,583 meters
(~ 5,194 feet) 1009.7 mb
(~ 29.82 inHg) - From 312° at 21 knots
(From the NW at ~ 24.1 mph) 18.5°C
(~ 65.3°F) 15.1°C
(~ 59.2°F) 21 knots
(~ 24.1 mph) 25 knots
(~ 28.7 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 25.0 knots (~ 28.7 mph)
119.0%
18:08:30Z 25.150N 90.750W 842.5 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,582 meters
(~ 5,190 feet) 1010.0 mb
(~ 29.83 inHg) - From 316° at 21 knots
(From the NW at ~ 24.1 mph) 18.3°C
(~ 64.9°F) 15.0°C
(~ 59.0°F) 22 knots
(~ 25.3 mph) 25 knots
(~ 28.7 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 23.9 knots (~ 27.4 mph)
113.6%
18:09:00Z 25.133N 90.767W 842.6 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,581 meters
(~ 5,187 feet) 1009.8 mb
(~ 29.82 inHg) - From 317° at 20 knots
(From the NW at ~ 23.0 mph) 18.5°C
(~ 65.3°F) 14.9°C
(~ 58.8°F) 20 knots
(~ 23.0 mph) 24 knots
(~ 27.6 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 24.0 knots (~ 27.6 mph)
120.0%
18:09:30Z 25.117N 90.800W 842.6 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,584 meters
(~ 5,197 feet) 1009.9 mb
(~ 29.82 inHg) - From 313° at 20 knots
(From the NW at ~ 23.0 mph) 18.5°C
(~ 65.3°F) 14.9°C
(~ 58.8°F) 21 knots
(~ 24.1 mph) 23 knots
(~ 26.4 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 21.9 knots (~ 25.2 mph)
109.5%
18:10:00Z 25.083N 90.817W 842.5 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,583 meters
(~ 5,194 feet) 1010.2 mb
(~ 29.83 inHg) - From 305° at 18 knots
(From the NW at ~ 20.7 mph) 18.2°C
(~ 64.8°F) 14.8°C
(~ 58.6°F) 19 knots
(~ 21.8 mph) 21 knots
(~ 24.1 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 19.9 knots (~ 22.9 mph)
110.5%
18:10:30Z 25.067N 90.850W 842.6 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,583 meters
(~ 5,194 feet) 1010.1 mb
(~ 29.83 inHg) - From 303° at 19 knots
(From the WNW at ~ 21.8 mph) 18.3°C
(~ 64.9°F) 14.8°C
(~ 58.6°F) 19 knots
(~ 21.8 mph) 21 knots
(~ 24.1 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 21.0 knots (~ 24.2 mph)
110.5%
18:11:00Z 25.050N 90.867W 842.5 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,585 meters
(~ 5,200 feet) 1010.3 mb
(~ 29.83 inHg) - From 306° at 18 knots
(From the NW at ~ 20.7 mph) 17.8°C
(~ 64.0°F) 14.8°C
(~ 58.6°F) 19 knots
(~ 21.8 mph) 19 knots
(~ 21.8 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 18.0 knots (~ 20.7 mph)
100.0%
18:11:30Z 25.033N 90.883W 843.0 mb
(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,581 meters
(~ 5,187 feet) 1010.6 mb
(~ 29.84 inHg) - From 304° at 18 knots
(From between the WNW and NW at ~ 20.7 mph) 17.5°C
(~ 63.5°F) 14.8°C
(~ 58.6°F) 18 knots
(~ 20.7 mph) 19 knots
(~ 21.8 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 19.0 knots (~ 21.8 mph)
105.6%
18:12:00Z 25.017N 90.917W 842.1 mb
(~ 24.87 inHg) 1,592 meters
(~ 5,223 feet) 1010.7 mb
(~ 29.85 inHg) - From 305° at 19 knots
(From the NW at ~ 21.8 mph) 17.5°C
(~ 63.5°F) 14.8°C
(~ 58.6°F) 19 knots
(~ 21.8 mph) 20 knots
(~ 23.0 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 20.0 knots (~ 23.0 mph)
105.3%
18:12:30Z 24.983N 90.933W 842.6 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,589 meters
(~ 5,213 feet) 1011.0 mb
(~ 29.85 inHg) - From 308° at 19 knots
(From the NW at ~ 21.8 mph) 17.4°C
(~ 63.3°F) 14.7°C
(~ 58.5°F) 20 knots
(~ 23.0 mph) 22 knots
(~ 25.3 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 20.9 knots (~ 24.0 mph)
110.0%
18:13:00Z 24.967N 90.967W 842.4 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,590 meters
(~ 5,217 feet) 1011.7 mb
(~ 29.88 inHg) - From 308° at 19 knots
(From the NW at ~ 21.8 mph) 16.2°C
(~ 61.2°F) 14.7°C
(~ 58.5°F) 21 knots
(~ 24.1 mph) 28 knots
(~ 32.2 mph) 7 mm/hr
(~ 0.28 in/hr) 25.3 knots (~ 29.1 mph)
133.3%
18:13:30Z 24.950N 90.983W 842.8 mb
(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,587 meters
(~ 5,207 feet) 1012.1 mb
(~ 29.89 inHg) - From 311° at 19 knots
(From the NW at ~ 21.8 mph) 15.4°C
(~ 59.7°F) 14.5°C
(~ 58.1°F) 20 knots
(~ 23.0 mph) 27 knots*
(~ 31.0 mph*) 2 mm/hr*
(~ 0.08 in/hr*) 25.7 knots* (~ 29.5 mph*)
135.0%*
18:14:00Z 24.933N 91.017W 842.5 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,590 meters
(~ 5,217 feet) 1011.7 mb
(~ 29.88 inHg) - From 310° at 18 knots
(From the NW at ~ 20.7 mph) 16.6°C
(~ 61.9°F) 14.1°C
(~ 57.4°F) 19 knots
(~ 21.8 mph) - - - -
18:14:30Z 24.900N 91.033W 842.5 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,590 meters
(~ 5,217 feet) 1011.4 mb
(~ 29.87 inHg) - From 310° at 19 knots
(From the NW at ~ 21.8 mph) 17.0°C
(~ 62.6°F) 13.9°C
(~ 57.0°F) 19 knots
(~ 21.8 mph) - - - -
18:15:00Z 24.883N 91.067W 842.4 mb
(~ 24.88 inHg) 1,590 meters
(~ 5,217 feet) 1011.5 mb
(~ 29.87 inHg) - From 307° at 18 knots
(From the NW at ~ 20.7 mph) 17.0°C
(~ 62.6°F) 13.9°C
(~ 57.0°F) 18 knots
(~ 20.7 mph) - - - -
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations
Quoting 571. mrmombq:
Why is there still a Hurricane Watch up? Is there something they are not telling us?


Last I heard, due to lower shear being expected, they (NWS) thought Karen might strengthen some before landfall.
According to Wikipedia, damage estimates for Manuel have already reached $925 million USD and the death total is 84.

When looking at the list of retired names from the East/Central Pacific, if Manuel were to be retired next spring, it would be the second costliest retired storm name, and third deadliest for that basin.

I think it should be retired.
18:13:00Z 27.783N 82.350W 858.7 mb
(~ 25.36 inHg) 1,473 meters
(~ 4,833 feet) 1017.4 mb
(~ 30.04 inHg) - From 59° at 7 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 8.0 mph) 17.8°C
(~ 64.0°F) 7.7°C
(~ 45.9°F) 8 knots
(~ 9.2 mph) - - - -
18:13:30Z 27.767N 82.383W 839.5 mb
(~ 24.79 inHg) 1,665 meters
(~ 5,463 feet) 1017.2 mb
(~ 30.04 inHg) - From 57° at 8 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 9.2 mph) 17.0°C
(~ 62.6°F) 2.9°C
(~ 37.2°F) 8 knots
(~ 9.2 mph) - - - -
18:14:00Z 27.767N 82.417W 822.7 mb
(~ 24.29 inHg) 1,837 meters
(~ 6,027 feet) 1017.0 mb
(~ 30.03 inHg) - From 41° at 5 knots
(From the NE at ~ 5.8 mph) 16.0°C
(~ 60.8°F) 2.9°C
(~ 37.2°F) 7 knots
(~ 8.0 mph) - - - -
18:14:30Z 27.750N 82.467W 805.0 mb
(~ 23.77 inHg) 2,020 meters
(~ 6,627 feet) 1016.9 mb
(~ 30.03 inHg) - From 16° at 5 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 5.8 mph) 14.6°C
(~ 58.3°F) 2.6°C
(~ 36.7°F) 6 knots
(~ 6.9 mph) - - - -
18:15:00Z 27.750N 82.500W 787.4 mb
(~ 23.25 inHg) 2,208 meters
(~ 7,244 feet) 1016.9 mb
(~ 30.03 inHg) - From 27° at 12 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 13.8 mph) 13.9°C
(~ 57.0°F) -0.4°C
(~ 31.3°F) 15 knots
(~ 17.2 mph) - - - -
18:15:30Z 27.750N 82.533W 774.1 mb
(~ 22.86 inHg) 2,352 meters
(~ 7,717 feet) 1016.3 mb
(~ 30.01 inHg) - From 22° at 14 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 16.1 mph) 13.6°C
(~ 56.5°F) -3.4°C
(~ 25.9°F) 16 knots
(~ 18.4 mph) - - - -
18:16:00Z 27.750N 82.583W 755.9 mb
(~ 22.32 inHg) 2,549 meters
(~ 8,363 feet) 1015.4 mb
(~ 29.98 inHg) - From 356° at 12 knots
(From the N at ~ 13.8 mph) 13.1°C
(~ 55.6°F) -6.0°C
(~ 21.2°F) 12 knots
(~ 13.8 mph) - - - -
18:16:30Z 27.733N 82.617W 739.1 mb
(~ 21.83 inHg) 2,741 meters
(~ 8,993 feet) 1015.1 mb
(~ 29.98 inHg) - From 2° at 12 knots
(From the N at ~ 13.8 mph) 12.4°C
(~ 54.3°F) -5.1°C
(~ 22.8°F) 12 knots
(~ 13.8 mph) - - - -
18:17:00Z 27.733N 82.650W 726.9 mb
(~ 21.47 inHg) 2,882 meters
(~ 9,455 feet) 1015.2 mb
(~ 29.98 inHg) - From 358° at 10 knots
(From the N at ~ 11.5 mph) 11.5°C
(~ 52.7°F) -4.3°C
(~ 24.3°F) 10 knots
(~ 11.5 mph) - - - -
18:17:30Z 27.733N 82.700W 714.2 mb
(~ 21.09 inHg) 3,028 meters
(~ 9,934 feet) 1015.0 mb
(~ 29.97 inHg) - From 353° at 10 knots
(From the N at ~ 11.5 mph) 10.6°C
(~ 51.1°F) -2.0°C
(~ 28.4°F) 11 knots
(~ 12.6 mph) - - - -
18:18:00Z 27.733N 82.733W 701.0 mb
(~ 20.70 inHg) 3,183 meters
(~ 10,443 feet) 1014.5 mb
(~ 29.96 inHg) - From 349° at 9 knots
(From between the NNW and N at ~ 10.3 mph) 10.3°C
(~ 50.5°F) -8.2°C
(~ 17.2°F) 9 knots
(~ 10.3 mph) - - - -
18:18:30Z 27.717N 82.767W 689.3 mb
(~ 20.36 inHg) 3,321 meters
(~ 10,896 feet) 1014.8 mb
(~ 29.97 inHg) - From 346° at 8 knots
(From the NNW at ~ 9.2 mph) 9.2°C
(~ 48.6°F) -7.4°C
(~ 18.7°F) 9 knots
(~ 10.3 mph) - - - -
18:19:00Z 27.717N 82.817W 680.7 mb
(~ 20.10 inHg) 3,430 meters
(~ 11,253 feet) 1014.8 mb
(~ 29.97 inHg) - From 355° at 7 knots
(From the N at ~ 8.0 mph) 8.7°C
(~ 47.7°F) -12.8°C
(~ 9.0°F) 8 knots
(~ 9.2 mph) - - - -
18:19:30Z 27.717N 82.850W 670.2 mb
(~ 19.79 inHg) 3,555 meters
(~ 11,663 feet) 1014.3 mb
(~ 29.95 inHg) - From 28° at 7 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 8.0 mph) 8.3°C
(~ 46.9°F) -13.5°C
(~ 7.7°F) 8 knots
(~ 9.2 mph) - - - -
18:20:00Z 27.700N 82.883W 661.7 mb
(~ 19.54 inHg) 3,661 meters
(~ 12,011 feet) 1014.2 mb
(~ 29.95 inHg) - From 46° at 7 knots
(From the NE at ~ 8.0 mph) 7.5°C
(~ 45.5°F) -8.3°C
(~ 17.1°F) 8 knots
(~ 9.2 mph) - - - -
18:20:30Z 27.700N 82.933W 651.2 mb
(~ 19.23 inHg) 3,794 meters
(~ 12,448 feet) 1014.3 mb
(~ 29.95 inHg) - From 65° at 9 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 10.3 mph) 6.5°C
(~ 43.7°F) -5.6°C
(~ 21.9°F) 10 knots
(~ 11.5 mph) - - - -
18:21:00Z 27.700N 82.967W 643.5 mb
(~ 19.00 inHg) 3,889 meters
(~ 12,759 feet) 1014.4 mb
(~ 29.96 inHg) - From 62° at 10 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 11.5 mph) 5.8°C
(~ 42.4°F) -6.2°C
(~ 20.8°F) 10 knots
(~ 11.5 mph) - - - -
18:21:30Z 27.700N 83.017W 636.5 mb
(~ 18.80 inHg) 3,977 meters
(~ 13,048 feet) 1014.3 mb
(~ 29.95 inHg) - From 62° at 9 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 10.3 mph) 5.1°C
(~ 41.2°F) -4.9°C
(~ 23.2°F) 9 knots
(~ 10.3 mph) - - - -
18:22:00Z 27.700N 83.050W 627.4 mb
(~ 18.53 inHg) 4,093 meters
(~ 13,428 feet) 1014.6 mb
(~ 29.96 inHg) - From 63° at 9 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 10.3 mph) 4.3°C
(~ 39.7°F) -9.1°C
(~ 15.6°F) 9 knots
(~ 10.3 mph) - - - -
18:22:30Z 27.683N 83.100W 619.1 mb
(~ 18.28 inHg) 4,204 meters
(~ 13,793 feet) 1014.7 mb
(~ 29.96 inHg) - From 57° at 9 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 10.3 mph) 3.7°C
(~ 38.7°F) -13.0°C
(~ 8.6°F) 9 knots
(~ 10.3 mph) 5 knots*
(~ 5.8 mph*) 0 mm/hr*
(~ 0 in/hr*) 5.0 knots* (~ 5.8 mph*)
55.6%*
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations
Quoting 571. mrmombq:
Why is there still a Hurricane Watch up? Is there something they are not telling us?


NHC may change that later today:

000
WTNT22 KNHC 041431
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
1500 UTC FRI OCT 04 2013

. . .

THE HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE DISCONTINUED OR CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH LATER TODAY.

. . .
Quoting 579. CaribBoy:


The GFS has backed off AS USUAL.... :(

NO RAIN EVENT ANYMORE. WHAT A BUST 2013 IS!!!

As usual? Hmm lets see...looking at maps the GFS put out at 168 hrs - 384hrs is really acccepting what will happen. How many times do we have to say to not look past 5 days in the open atlantic. Even then the odds are at 25% or less
588. 7544
did she stall yet ? tia
LMAO... 2013

...FRINGE EFFECTS FROM TROPICAL STORM KAREN EXPECTED FROM LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ON
SATURDAY...MAINLY OVER INLAND AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TROPICAL STORM KAREN IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY AND THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD ON
SUNDAY TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
REGION. KAREN IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...WHILE WEAKENING. DEPENDING ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF
KAREN...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOCAL
INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

Can we just have a link for this data?
Quoting 585. HurricaneAndre:
18:13:00Z 27.783N 82.350W 858.7 mb
(~ 25.36 inHg) 1,473 meters
(~ 4,833 feet) 1017.4 mb
(~ 30.04 inHg) - From 59° at 7 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 8.0 mph) 17.8°C
(~ 64.0°F) 7.7°C
(~ 45.9°F) 8 knots
(~ 9.2 mph) - - - -
18:13:30Z 27.767N 82.383W 839.5 mb
(~ 24.79 inHg) 1,665 meters
(~ 5,463 feet) 1017.2 mb
(~ 30.04 inHg) - From 57° at 8 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 9.2 mph) 17.0°C
(~ 62.6°F) 2.9°C
(~ 37.2°F) 8 knots
(~ 9.2 mph) - - - -
18:14:00Z 27.767N 82.417W 822.7 mb
(~ 24.29 inHg) 1,837 meters
(~ 6,027 feet) 1017.0 mb
(~ 30.03 inHg) - From 41° at 5 knots
(From the NE at ~ 5.8 mph) 16.0°C
(~ 60.8°F) 2.9°C
(~ 37.2°F) 7 knots
(~ 8.0 mph) - - - -
18:14:30Z 27.750N 82.467W 805.0 mb
(~ 23.77 inHg) 2,020 meters
(~ 6,627 feet) 1016.9 mb
(~ 30.03 inHg) - From 16° at 5 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 5.8 mph) 14.6°C
(~ 58.3°F) 2.6°C
(~ 36.7°F) 6 knots
(~ 6.9 mph) - - - -
18:15:00Z 27.750N 82.500W 787.4 mb
(~ 23.25 inHg) 2,208 meters
(~ 7,244 feet) 1016.9 mb
(~ 30.03 inHg) - From 27° at 12 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 13.8 mph) 13.9°C
(~ 57.0°F) -0.4°C
(~ 31.3°F) 15 knots
(~ 17.2 mph) - - - -
18:15:30Z 27.750N 82.533W 774.1 mb
(~ 22.86 inHg) 2,352 meters
(~ 7,717 feet) 1016.3 mb
(~ 30.01 inHg) - From 22° at 14 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 16.1 mph) 13.6°C
(~ 56.5°F) -3.4°C
(~ 25.9°F) 16 knots
(~ 18.4 mph) - - - -
18:16:00Z 27.750N 82.583W 755.9 mb
(~ 22.32 inHg) 2,549 meters
(~ 8,363 feet) 1015.4 mb
(~ 29.98 inHg) - From 356° at 12 knots
(From the N at ~ 13.8 mph) 13.1°C
(~ 55.6°F) -6.0°C
(~ 21.2°F) 12 knots
(~ 13.8 mph) - - - -
18:16:30Z 27.733N 82.617W 739.1 mb
(~ 21.83 inHg) 2,741 meters
(~ 8,993 feet) 1015.1 mb
(~ 29.98 inHg) - From 2° at 12 knots
(From the N at ~ 13.8 mph) 12.4°C
(~ 54.3°F) -5.1°C
(~ 22.8°F) 12 knots
(~ 13.8 mph) - - - -
18:17:00Z 27.733N 82.650W 726.9 mb
(~ 21.47 inHg) 2,882 meters
(~ 9,455 feet) 1015.2 mb
(~ 29.98 inHg) - From 358° at 10 knots
(From the N at ~ 11.5 mph) 11.5°C
(~ 52.7°F) -4.3°C
(~ 24.3°F) 10 knots
(~ 11.5 mph) - - - -
18:17:30Z 27.733N 82.700W 714.2 mb
(~ 21.09 inHg) 3,028 meters
(~ 9,934 feet) 1015.0 mb
(~ 29.97 inHg) - From 353° at 10 knots
(From the N at ~ 11.5 mph) 10.6°C
(~ 51.1°F) -2.0°C
(~ 28.4°F) 11 knots
(~ 12.6 mph) - - - -
18:18:00Z 27.733N 82.733W 701.0 mb
(~ 20.70 inHg) 3,183 meters
(~ 10,443 feet) 1014.5 mb
(~ 29.96 inHg) - From 349° at 9 knots
(From between the NNW and N at ~ 10.3 mph) 10.3°C
(~ 50.5°F) -8.2°C
(~ 17.2°F) 9 knots
(~ 10.3 mph) - - - -
18:18:30Z 27.717N 82.767W 689.3 mb
(~ 20.36 inHg) 3,321 meters
(~ 10,896 feet) 1014.8 mb
(~ 29.97 inHg) - From 346° at 8 knots
(From the NNW at ~ 9.2 mph) 9.2°C
(~ 48.6°F) -7.4°C
(~ 18.7°F) 9 knots
(~ 10.3 mph) - - - -
18:19:00Z 27.717N 82.817W 680.7 mb
(~ 20.10 inHg) 3,430 meters
(~ 11,253 feet) 1014.8 mb
(~ 29.97 inHg) - From 355° at 7 knots
(From the N at ~ 8.0 mph) 8.7°C
(~ 47.7°F) -12.8°C
(~ 9.0°F) 8 knots
(~ 9.2 mph) - - - -
18:19:30Z 27.717N 82.850W 670.2 mb
(~ 19.79 inHg) 3,555 meters
(~ 11,663 feet) 1014.3 mb
(~ 29.95 inHg) - From 28° at 7 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 8.0 mph) 8.3°C
(~ 46.9°F) -13.5°C
(~ 7.7°F) 8 knots
(~ 9.2 mph) - - - -
18:20:00Z 27.700N 82.883W 661.7 mb
(~ 19.54 inHg) 3,661 meters
(~ 12,011 feet) 1014.2 mb
(~ 29.95 inHg) - From 46° at 7 knots
(From the NE at ~ 8.0 mph) 7.5°C
(~ 45.5°F) -8.3°C
(~ 17.1°F) 8 knots
(~ 9.2 mph) - - - -
18:20:30Z 27.700N 82.933W 651.2 mb
(~ 19.23 inHg) 3,794 meters
(~ 12,448 feet) 1014.3 mb
(~ 29.95 inHg) - From 65° at 9 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 10.3 mph) 6.5°C
(~ 43.7°F) -5.6°C
(~ 21.9°F) 10 knots
(~ 11.5 mph) - - - -
18:21:00Z 27.700N 82.967W 643.5 mb
(~ 19.00 inHg) 3,889 meters
(~ 12,759 feet) 1014.4 mb
(~ 29.96 inHg) - From 62° at 10 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 11.5 mph) 5.8°C
(~ 42.4°F) -6.2°C
(~ 20.8°F) 10 knots
(~ 11.5 mph) - - - -
18:21:30Z 27.700N 83.017W 636.5 mb
(~ 18.80 inHg) 3,977 meters
(~ 13,048 feet) 1014.3 mb
(~ 29.95 inHg) - From 62° at 9 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 10.3 mph) 5.1°C
(~ 41.2°F) -4.9°C
(~ 23.2°F) 9 knots
(~ 10.3 mph) - - - -
18:22:00Z 27.700N 83.050W 627.4 mb
(~ 18.53 inHg) 4,093 meters
(~ 13,428 feet) 1014.6 mb
(~ 29.96 inHg) - From 63° at 9 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 10.3 mph) 4.3°C
(~ 39.7°F) -9.1°C
(~ 15.6°F) 9 knots
(~ 10.3 mph) - - - -
18:22:30Z 27.683N 83.100W 619.1 mb
(~ 18.28 inHg) 4,204 meters
(~ 13,793 feet) 1014.7 mb
(~ 29.96 inHg) - From 57° at 9 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 10.3 mph) 3.7°C
(~ 38.7°F) -13.0°C
(~ 8.6°F) 9 knots
(~ 10.3 mph) 5 knots*
(~ 5.8 mph*) 0 mm/hr*
(~ 0 in/hr*) 5.0 knots* (~ 5.8 mph*)
55.6%*
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations
Link
Quoting 592. JNTenne:
Can we just have a link for this data?

Here you go.
Quoting 587. scottsvb:

As usual? Hmm lets see...looking at maps the GFS put out at 168 hrs - 384hrs is really acccepting what will happen. How many times do we have to say to not look past 5 days in the open atlantic. Even then the odds are at 25% or less


Yes I agree...

But we din even have a single chance this year! I cannot count how many times the GFS predicted false rain events (sometimes in the very short range).
Quoting 525. MississippiWx:


Lol. Please re-read my post carefully.


LOL, I thought you fat fingered it but now I get it!
Looks like she is east of the forecast points and the models are trending east. Panhandle of Florida could get some decent rains with this.
12z FIM-7:



And something at the end of the run:

600. CJ5
It appears the HH hunters have dropped a message to Karen that the US is shutdown. She appears to be giving up on a visit.
The GFS has really backed off in strength.

Bands of rain starting to move into New Orleans from Karen........
605. 7544
Quoting 602. GTstormChaserCaleb:
The GFS has really backed off in strength.



ill go with loop de loop the blue one
Karen is trying. She decoupled at around 1AM last night and it didn't look good for her. Convection and mid level circulation and LLCOC were close to 50-75 miles apart further than they are now. Really looked like the mid level and convection would head NE and the LLCOC would head NW. Convection continues to fire nicely closer to the LLCOC and while this won't stack again in the near term, the low and mid level circulations are working their way back to each other. If you saw Karen at 3AM you'd be impressed with her now.
Quoting 584. Halcyon19:
According to Wikipedia, damage estimates for Manuel have already reached $925 million USD and the death total is 84.

When looking at the list of retired names from the East/Central Pacific, if Manuel were to be retired next spring, it would be the second costliest retired storm name, and third deadliest for that basin.

I think it should be retired.
Karl in 2010 produce more much damage than Manuel did,I believe it was the costliest storm for Veracruz and wasn`t retire.Agatha killed more than Manuel and was the worst storm for Guatemala and it wasn`t retire,So I am not sure about Manuel.I give it a 50%.A toss up for me.
Quoting 578. GTstormChaserCaleb:
This is really starting to get ridiculous. And no I'm not wishing for death and destruction, but we can't even seem to get an organized tropical storm. The only organized system this year was Humberto and even he didn't last that long. The ACE continues to be low. Mid-Oceanic Trough causing wind shear in the MDR, SAL, and dry continental air preventing anything close to home from getting strong can be blamed for the lack of activity this season. In fact this season has performed worst then some El-Nino season's. It's a head scratcher for sure and one that will be subject to research.
I understand your point even 2009 was more much fun than this one.This one reminds me of 2006 an El Nio year and even that season produce 2 majors.I am almost sure 2014 will be more fun than this one.
Quoting 602. GTstormChaserCaleb:
The GFS has really backed off in strength.



Although that shows a 1009mb low in the near future... HH just found 1001mb...
Some light reading for those tired of watching Karen getting sheared:

http://bit.ly/GD62k4
Quoting 528. mrsbinder:
they have been saying karen would be a hurricane the past 3 days ??? whats wrong again?


Shear, dry air. There was a possibility that it could become a hurricane, but that seems to passed.
Quoting 597. Drakoen:
Looks like she is east of the forecast points and the models are trending east. Panhandle of Florida could get some decent rains with this.


Which we don't need!
Models that have had a weaker solution all along should win out with Karen. They have been more consistent than the GFS and have had a better overall grasp of the environment ahead. The 12z GFS came more in line with the weaker camp through the short term before shooting the system nearly due east. The hook seems overdone.
Quoting 602. GTstormChaserCaleb:
The GFS has really backed off in strength.

Gfs is now in par with the other models.The hurricane watch will probably be drop at the 5pm advisory.
Quoting 597. Drakoen:
Looks like she is east of the forecast points and the models are trending east. Panhandle of Florida could get some decent rains with this.


So what is it that is preventing Karen from be taken up to the north by the front? Is the ridge of high pressure in the SE supposed to prevent the storm from moving more poleward?
Well, looking at the satellite picture it looks like mississippi will be getting a few showers on Sunday. Nothing out of the ordinary no DOOM scenario no need to cancel cruising the coast.

Well looks like wind shear is only going to continue to increase the approaching front will just absorb Karen and when that happens she will likely be no more and will just be a non-tropical low riding along a front. Right now it doesn't even look like Karen will make a landfall.

Westerly jog could be taking place now. Let's see what recon says. Jogs in either direction should be common, fluctuating in response to convection.

well this isnt a central florida storm nor worry..we can enjoy our weekend around here
Perfect weather after the front passes. I can't wait.

Quoting 619. LargoFl:
that 2pm purple model track looks scarey for cedarkey florida
Looking at the water vapor loop, it looks like dry air is starting to recede as moisture from SW comes up. Not going to be enough or anything.
Ouch that dry air over Texas, where have I heard that before? has done its work on Karen keeping her in check, had she been more closer to the Eastern Gulf this may be a different story.

On a positive note - the winter storm affecting the rockies/Plains is bringing precip to those regions that need it most. Considerably improving the current situation.

AL, 12, 2013100418, , BEST, 0, 258N, 902W, 45, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 100, 0, 30, 1011, 120, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, KAREN, M,
Quoting 609. DoctorDave1:
Some light reading for those tired of watching Karen getting sheared:

http://bit.ly/GD62k4
It's light, alright--light on just about everything. I'll pass...

Karen continues her dance of dishabille. Meanwhile, the blizzard continues to smother parts of Wyoming and the Dakotas. This is I-90 a hundred miles or so west of the Wyoming/South Dakota state line.:

2013



Read the first letter in each line in the first paragraph:

http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/pubfcst.php?fcst=FXAK68P AFC

: )
all those poor people in the middle gulf states that went and spent so much money on supplys and they might not even see a drop of rain..... hmmmmmmm
631. VR46L
Quoting 610. daddyjames:


Shear, dry air. There was a possibility that it could become a hurricane, but that seems to passed.


Not sure it was ever a possibility , the models on most sites was showing a transistion at landfall . hence the Low pressures being sited
COC shows up well here, exposed.

Quoting 629. CaicosRetiredSailor:
Read the first letter in each line in the first paragraph:

http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/pubfcst.php?fcst=FXAK68P AFC

: )
Awesome!!!
Quoting 629. CaicosRetiredSailor:
Read the first letter in each line in the first paragraph:

http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/pubfcst.php?fcst=FXAK68P AFC

: )
the first letter reas PLEASE PAY US.... are you saying this storm is a scam so people spend money on retail?
Quoting 631. VR46L:


Not sure it was ever a possibility , the models on most sites was showing a transistion at landfall . hence the Low pressures being sited
Noticed how the HWRF was never very enthusiastic which always tells you something.
Quoting 630. mrsbinder:
all those poor people in the middle gulf states that went and spent so much money on supplys and they might not even see a drop of rain..... hmmmmmmm
should not have happened..they should have been prepared with the hurricane kits etc all season long no?
We seem to be neglecting the unusual summer-like warm temperatures across the Midwest and Mid Atlantic.



Currently 85 right now in NJ. Average high for us this time of year is 69.
Quoting 635. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Noticed how the HWRF was never very enthusiastic which always tells you something.
not so true..yesterday evening it was inline with the GFS on strengthening,gee we stayed up past midnight watching all of the models lol.
oh my the K storm doing weird things as normal
Quoting 636. LargoFl:
should not have happened..they should have been prepared with the hurricane kits etc all season long no?
this is true why wait and get scared for nothing
We'll see if Karen will be impactful enough to be add to "Hall of Storms"... I might have to go over the data for 5 storms I got listed and a possibility addition of Earl in 2010 as well as Karen 2013 if she is bad enough. I don't remember why I didn't add Earl in first place.
Quoting 629. CaicosRetiredSailor:
Read the first letter in each line in the first paragraph:

http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/pubfcst.php?fcst=FXAK68P AFC

: )


You should check out the opening prayers to each house session lately. Check out 10/01/2103

Quoting 637. wxgeek723:
We seem to be neglecting the unusual summer-like warm temperatures across the Midwest and Mid Atlantic.



Currently 85 right now where I am in Jersey. Average high for this time of year is 69.


Not truly unusual with a large winter storm heading across the country. The south westerly flow in front of an intense storm warms the area up. You'll balance out soon with snow lol
big weather story next 4-5 days will be that Big winter storm crossing the US in the northern and central states...besides snow in the western states..alot of Tornado warnings last night.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
213 PM AST FRI OCT 4 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DISSIPATED
DURING THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP WEST
OF THE AREA BY MONDAY. A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL BRING DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...AFFECTING MAINLY THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH CONTINUES NORTH OF THE
AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKENS AND EVENTUALLY WILL DISSIPATE
DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND WILL DIG
SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THEREFORE...EVERY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF
PUERTO RICO.

IN ADDITION...A MOIST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WIND WILL MAINTAIN
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
LATEST 12Z SJU-GFS MODEL FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
BE OVER 2.0 INCHES MOST OF NEXT WEEK...AND THETAE VALUES AT 700MB
WILL BE AROUNG 335K.

So..... orographic convection and that's it! BORING BUST
Quoting 631. VR46L:


Not sure it was ever a possibility , the models on most sites was showing a transistion at landfall . hence the Low pressures being sited


It had a shot - yesterday, and was not far removed from being a hurricane. But, it most likely will maintain its current status until landfall.
Euro now is inline with the GFS,HRWF.... takes the system ENE to near Panama City and then NE through SE GA. Confidence is high that this will hit in the Panhandle to as far east as the Big Bend Sunday night or Monday morning. Still hard to tell on the strength.... anywhere from 50mph TS to 85Mph Hurricane..all depending on how far south this stays.
Quoting 640. mrsbinder:
this is true why wait and get scared for nothing
yes at my house we've had our kits prepared at the beginning of the season..if a storm came all i needed was the bottled water,had everything else except maybe some extra gasoline.everyone in the hurricane danger zones should have been the same..but then not all are ever prepared for anything i guess til the last moment.
I am damn glad its not a hurricane and all you posters who wish that--wish it on yourself...I'll that a nice Tropical Storm/Cat 1 anytime.
Quoting 639. bigwes6844:
oh my the K storm doing weird things as normal


Yeah you rite neighbor, nice banding coming through here in Mid-City right now.
Quoting 628. Neapolitan:
It's light, alright--light on just about everything. I'll pass...

Karen continues her dance of dishabille. Meanwhile, the blizzard continues to smother parts of Wyoming and the Dakotas. This is I-90 a hundred miles or so west of the Wyoming/South Dakota state line.:

2013



wow just give me ONE day here with snow lol..i'll trade them a day with these humid 90 temps.
652. VR46L
Quoting 646. daddyjames:


It had a shot - yesterday, and was not far removed from being a hurricane. But, it most likely will maintain its current status until landfall.


Good.
2005




2013




LOL... Nuf said!!
Quoting 647. scottsvb:
Euro now is inline with the GFS,HRWF.... takes the system ENE to near Panama City and then NE through SE GA. Confidence is high that this will hit in the Panhandle to as far east as the Big Bend Sunday night or Monday morning. Still hard to tell on the strength.... anywhere from 50mph TS to 85Mph Hurricane..all depending on how far south this stays.


Now, maybe we can quit seeing the NOLA radar loop posted, every thirty minutes.
Quoting 654. CaneHunter031472:
2005




2013




LOL... Nuf said!!

Well, one is August 28 and the other is October 4. Big difference in atmospheric conditions there. :P
Quoting 644. LargoFl:
big weather story next 4-5 days will be that Big winter storm crossing the US in the northern and central states...besides snow in the western states..alot of Tornado warnings last night.

There weren't really lots of warnings last night, just two vigorous storms that wouldn't die. (And one warning in Wisconsin :P)
Quoting 656. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, one is August 25 and the other is October 4. Big difference in atmospheric conditions there. :P


How about Wilma 2005 :P It's not the month, It's the season.
Should be slowing, southeastern high not budging in the present. Steering suggests a continued north/northwest movement.





MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1933
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 PM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL KS...WRN/N-CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 041910Z - 042015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO...WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WHICH WILL LIKELY
NECESSITATE WATCH ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS FROM 19Z SHOWS A DRYLINE/COLD FRONT
INTERSECTION NEAR PTT...WITH THE DRYLINE EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE ERN
TX PANHANDLE...AND A COLD FRONT ARCING WSWWD ACROSS SWRN KS INTO THE
NRN TX PANHANDLE. MORE RECENTLY...VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE
SHOWED BOUNDARY LAYER-BASED CU INCREASING ALONG THE DRYLINE...BUT
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS SUGGEST NOTABLE MLCINH IS STILL
PRESENT. GIVEN ADDITIONAL SFC HEATING /WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
NEAR 88-90 F PER RAP/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS/...AND WEAK BUT
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE...REMAINING
MLCINH SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND RESULT IN CONVECTIVE
INITIATION...POSSIBLY BY 21Z.

RECENT SUITE OF HIGH-RESOLUTION NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TSTM
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG THE DRYLINE INITIALLY OVER WRN OK INTO
FAR SRN KS...AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO CNTRL KS. VEERING
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES YIELDING EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KT
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH ANY SUSTAINED DISCRETE STORMS
THAT CAN DEVELOP...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND
GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. HOWEVER...THE TEMPORAL WINDOW FOR
DISCRETE CONVECTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN...AS THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SWD LATER THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY
UNDERCUT TSTMS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE DOMINANT MODE
EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO A LINE.

..ROGERS/HART.. 10/04/2013


ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON 38019603 37099660 35529800 34739869 34559938 34839984
35599997 37349872 38479766 38429675 38019603
Quoting 654. CaneHunter031472:
2005




2013




LOL... Nuf said!!
Man how the times have changed, back then a small thunderstorm complex would develop, nowadays you can't even get a blob to develop. Whoever is modifying the weather in the Atlantic Ocean is sure as hell doing a good job. :P
662. MTWX
Karen is trying really hard to make it to Texas!!

Link
Quoting 659. moonlightcowboy:
Should be slowing, southeastern high not budging in the present. Steering suggests a continued north/northwest movement.





Right into that dry, dry air, die Karen die
Quoting 654. CaneHunter031472:
2005




2013




LOL... Nuf said!!


I like 2013 much better.
Karen will likely be the poster child when we look back at the 2013 North Atlantic "Hurricane" season.
Quoting 662. MTWX:
Karen is trying really hard to make it to Texas!!

Link


Of course. We have awesome BBQ lots of land and no state income tax. Who wouldn't want to come here :)

EDIT: Almost forgot Florida too has no income tax. This explains the tug-o-war effect on Karen right now.
Quoting 658. CaneHunter031472:


How about Wilma 2005 :P It's not the month, It's the season.

I understand I'm ruining your point here (lol) but Wilma spent several days over very high ocean heat content in the western Caribbean. Karen is over low ocean heat content in the Gulf of Mexico, a region that typically sees strong shear in October.
Quoting 657. Doppler22:

There weren't really lots of warnings last night, just two vigorous storms that wouldn't die. (And one warning in Wisconsin :P)


There was a reported tornado in Nebraska. But, yes, all in all not much.
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!
671. FOREX
Quoting 655. Sangria:


Now, maybe we can quit seeing the NOLA radar loop posted, every thirty minutes.


Proof on Euro run please. thanks.
Quoting 668. daddyjames:


There was a reported tornado in Nebraska. But, yes, all in all not much.
Haha yes I remember, I called it :) I hope I can call some more storms later (But obviously I hope nobody is hurt today)
Which way is it going now lol. speed up for full effect.

Link
Quoting 672. Doppler22:
Haha yes I remember, I called it :) I hope I can call some more storms later (But obviously I hope nobody is hurt today)


Tch, tch - yes you did ;) How soon one forgets. :)
Quoting 620. MississippiWx:
Westerly jog could be taking place now. Let's see what recon says. Jogs in either direction should be common, fluctuating in response to convection.



Idk..that would be weird if it happens
Quoting 655. Sangria:


Now, maybe we can quit seeing the NOLA radar loop posted, every thirty minutes.


your probably gonna see it continue....the high over Florida isn't going anywhere fast....only thing for her to do right now is NW/NNW....
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!AAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!AAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!AAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!AAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!AAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!
Quoting 660. Doppler22:


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1933
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 PM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL KS...WRN/N-CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 041910Z - 042015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO...WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WHICH WILL LIKELY
NECESSITATE WATCH ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS FROM 19Z SHOWS A DRYLINE/COLD FRONT
INTERSECTION NEAR PTT...WITH THE DRYLINE EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE ERN
TX PANHANDLE...AND A COLD FRONT ARCING WSWWD ACROSS SWRN KS INTO THE
NRN TX PANHANDLE. MORE RECENTLY...VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE
SHOWED BOUNDARY LAYER-BASED CU INCREASING ALONG THE DRYLINE...BUT
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS SUGGEST NOTABLE MLCINH IS STILL
PRESENT. GIVEN ADDITIONAL SFC HEATING /WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
NEAR 88-90 F PER RAP/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS/...AND WEAK BUT
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE...REMAINING
MLCINH SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND RESULT IN CONVECTIVE
INITIATION...POSSIBLY BY 21Z.

RECENT SUITE OF HIGH-RESOLUTION NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TSTM
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG THE DRYLINE INITIALLY OVER WRN OK INTO
FAR SRN KS...AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO CNTRL KS. VEERING
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES YIELDING EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KT
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH ANY SUSTAINED DISCRETE STORMS
THAT CAN DEVELOP...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND
GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. HOWEVER...THE TEMPORAL WINDOW FOR
DISCRETE CONVECTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN...AS THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SWD LATER THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY
UNDERCUT TSTMS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE DOMINANT MODE
EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO A LINE.

..ROGERS/HART.. 10/04/2013


ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON 38019603 37099660 35529800 34739869 34559938 34839984
35599997 37349872 38479766 38429675 38019603


Right on time. I just hope we don't get hail :(. I hate hail.
Quoting 673. DavidHOUTX:
Which way is it going now lol. speed up for full effect.

Link


Collapsing upon itself?
GFS proves to be king once again as the ECMWF succumbs to the GFS's forecast.
Quoting 680. StormPro:


Collapsing upon itself?


That is exactly what I was thinking too. Looks to to really be falling apart now
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
208 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

IAC049-041930-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0243.000000T0000Z-131004T1930Z/
DALLAS IA-
208 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
DALLAS COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

AT 204 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DALLAS
CENTER...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PERRY...WOODWARD...BOUTON AND GRANGER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&
Our local officials are calling for a state of emergency here is south Louisiana, all can goods and water is gone from our local grocery stores. We are a strong group down here, we will take all Karen has to throw at us. We will pick ourselves up by the boot straps and make it through it. We just heard Joe Cantoro boots are on the ground in our area, he will be staying at the local YMCA to cover Karen. I will keep you guys updated on the storm called Karen.
Quoting 682. DavidHOUTX:


That is exactly what I was thinking too. Looks to to really be falling apart now


Speeding it up you can see it. Went from nice, round "eye like" feature to squished cumquat lol
Quoting 673. DavidHOUTX:
Which way is it going now lol. speed up for full effect.

Link

Now that's just plain weird David
Hey look, recon found the mid-level circulation also

Governor of Alabama declares a State of Emergency

Link
Quoting 686. StormPro:


Speeding it up you can see it. Went from nice, round "eye like" feature to squished cumquat lol


Learned a new word today. Thought that was something else
Big waves breaking on the beach. I'm concerned about further beach erosion and the possibility of neighbors losing property this time.
Quoting 687. Times2:

Now that's just plain weird David


Dry air and being squished between that high and the approaching front? I don't know. I'm not a met. Maybe its dry air intrusion. Just wild guesses on my part though
Quoting 630. mrsbinder:
all those poor people in the middle gulf states that went and spent so much money on supplys and they might not even see a drop of rain..... hmmmmmmm
I buy my supplies in May.....(very few) since we have not had anything much to worry about since 2005. Top off my fuel tank in my car...but I do this nice a week. Obviously, you are one of those that does not prepare by June 1.
Quoting 690. Drakoen:


Learned a new word today. Thought that was something else


Generally spelled with a "K", wonder why . . .
Quoting 689. Doppler22:
Governor of Alabama declares a State of Emergency

Link


Thanks for the link
Quoting 692. DanAlabama:
Big waves breaking on the beach. I'm concerned about further beach erosion and the possibility of neighbors losing property this time.

Worry about drownings...I saw one with my own eyes this past may in Gulf Shores.
Quoting 617. LargoFl:





This loop seems to show the dry air being pushed back to the West. If Karen slows down, might that allow time for the EPAC to contribute better moisture levels right about the time of lower shear when they think the storm might regain a bit of intensity?
Peace y'all. I gotta head across the lake to my little peace of heaven in Mandeville
Living in the gulf states - most folks have already prepared (hopefully in June) - supplies aren't necessarily things you don't use in the "off" season. Biggest loss generally for a Karen type storm is losing power and figuring out what to do with the goods in your freezer...

Quoting 630. mrsbinder:
all those poor people in the middle gulf states that went and spent so much money on supplys and they might not even see a drop of rain..... hmmmmmmm
703. VR46L
Quoting 678. HurricaneAndre:
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH HH HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!AAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!AAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!AAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!AAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!AAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!


A little over dramatic ? LOL
Quoting 656. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, one is August 28 and the other is October 4. Big difference in atmospheric conditions there. :P


We didn't even have a storm in the Central Gulf to compare in August :)
Quoting 703. VR46L:


A little over dramatic ? LOL


That's far from drama.
Quoting 699. WalkingInTheSun:





This loop seems to show the dry air being pushed back to the West. If Karen slows down, might that allow time for the EPAC to contribute better moisture levels right about the time of lower shear when they think the storm might regain a bit of intensity?
its going to be interesting to see tomorrow mornings warnings etc..today it will just be lurking out in the gulf,dont see any models bringing it ashore tonight.
Quoting 689. Doppler22:
Governor of Alabama declares a State of Emergency

Link
I am not even sure why,at the rate I see things Karen might not even make landfall.
Quoting 704. louisianaboy444:


We didn't even have a storm in the Central Gulf to compare in August :)


So, I had this question before . . . what is it that is preventing the upcoming front from pulling Karen off to the immediate north (as shown on the GFS)? Is it that the low lifts off to the north, and the ridge of HP in the SE prevents it from taking a more NE direction?
Tornado Watch issued for Iowa and Nebraska
Subtle westcast vs. eastcast battle going on here. (:

Well ladies and gentlemen, this appears to be the most fearsome storm 2013 has cranked out for the U.S. and it's absolutely pitiful.

There is a mentality of many people (including someone I know very well (not on the blog)) to completely downcast and belittle every single tropical system that threatens our area. I really don't like talking to people like this about tropical weather systems because they just cannot keep their mouth shut about how small the chance is that we will get a significant system, or how it is going to be a non-event, amount to nothing, etc. And the kind of annoying thing is that they have been right because since 2005, the Atlantic hasn't been able to do squat in cranking out any system that isn't plagued by some inhibiting factor. But this downcasting is definitely not a mentality that will last forever, especially when the big one comes. You can only downcast for so long before you get hit.

Honestly, has the Gulf lost it's potential to crank out real tropical cyclones?

The storms that have entered the Gulf as a hurricane since 2005 have all weakened or not been able to become a major.

How much longer will this continue?????



Quoting 675. LargoFl:




So, this pic does show the CoC is rather apart from the T-storm activity.
Quoting 707. allancalderini:
I am not even sure why,at the rate I see things Karen might not even make landfall.
allows the gov to call up the National guard etc..just a legal formality
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 539
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
240 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

TORNADO WATCH 539 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

IAC071-085-129-133-137-145-155-165-193-050300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0539.131004T1940Z-131005T0300Z/

IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

FREMONT HARRISON MILLS
MONONA MONTGOMERY PAGE
POTTAWATTAMIE SHELBY WOODBURY


NEC003-011-021-023-025-027-037-039-043-051-053-055 -067-095-097-
107-109-119-127-131-133-139-141-147-151-153-155-15 9-167-173-177-
179-050300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0539.131004T1940Z-131005T0300Z/

NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANTELOPE BOONE BURT
BUTLER CASS CEDAR
COLFAX CUMING DAKOTA
DIXON DODGE DOUGLAS
GAGE JEFFERSON JOHNSON
KNOX LANCASTER MADISON
NEMAHA OTOE PAWNEE
PIERCE PLATTE RICHARDSON
SALINE SARPY SAUNDERS
SEWARD STANTON THURSTON
WASHINGTON WAYNE


ATTN...WFO...OAX...FSD...
So what happens when the emperor has no clothes...All convection is now east of the COC. Certainly not a structure that suggests strengthening any time soon. Looks like a good rain maker, but that's all....

Link
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM DANAS (T1324)
3:00 AM JST October 5 2013
======================================

Near Mariana Islands

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Danas (996 hPa) located at 17.9N 144.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Dvorak intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 20.3N 138.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea South Of Japan
48 HRS: 23.2N 132.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea South Of Japan
72 HRS: 27.4N 127.3E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) East China Sea

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #45
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON FITOW (T1323)
3:00 AM JST October 5 2013
======================================

South Southeast of Naha (Okinawa)

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Fitow (965 hPa) located at 23.7N 128.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest slowly.

Storm Force Winds
================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
210 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
180 NM from the center in southeast quadrant

Dvorak intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 25.4N 125.4E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) North of Miyako Island
48 HRS: 27.0N 121.5E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) East China Sea
72 HRS: 27.9N 118.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland central China
Quoting 712. opal92nwf:
Subtle westcast vs. eastcast battle going on here. (:

Well ladies and gentlemen, this appears to be the most fearsome storm 2013 has cranked out for the U.S. and it's absolutely pitiful.

There is a mentality of many people (including someone I know very well (not on the blog)) to completely downcast and belittle every single tropical system that threatens our area. I really don't like talking to people like this about tropical weather systems because they just cannot keep their mouth shut about how small the chance is that we will get a significant system, or how it is going to be a non-event, amount to nothing, etc. And the kind of annoying thing is that they have been right because since 2005, the Atlantic hasn't been able to do squat in cranking out any system that isn't plagued by some inhibiting factor. But this downcasting is definitely not a mentality that will last forever, especially when the big one comes. You can only downcast for so long before you get hit.

Honestly, has the Gulf lost it's potential to crank out real tropical cyclones?

The storms that have entered the Gulf as a hurricane since 2005 have all weakened or not been able to become a major.

How much longer will this continue?????





I don't know, but I have some opinions. Heh.
(1) I think she is going more NW & will go in more westerly.

(2) She could rebuild a bit again before landfall.

(3) If she falls apart befoe landfall,...we can dubb her "The Amazing GOM FISHSTORM!!!"
The Gulf is bisected.
Quoting 706. LargoFl:
its going to be interesting to see tomorrow mornings warnings etc..today it will just be lurking out in the gulf,dont see any models bringing it ashore tonight.


"Lurking", lol.
I noticed a lone pink line in the ensemble models showing Karen backtracking to the South, to lurk.
Quoting 655. Sangria:


Now, maybe we can quit seeing the NOLA radar loop posted, every thirty minutes.


Sure, lol......and pigs are going to fly!
Good to see you BFF!!!
I'm done....I'm not going to check back until shortly before I go to bed.
Really Karen..
It's center moved slightly south?? Recon passed 1002.0 is the lowest.. where and why does the NHC forecat restrengthening?
Quoting 721. Patrap:

Dry air appears to be winning for now...


Central Louisiana, looking South
Good afternoon, people!
tomorrow, SPC has outlooked Illinois and the vicinity into a slight risk.

If you live in Iowa, be safe!
poor karen seems to be getting torn up and the LLC is moving away from the convection
Quoting 714. LargoFl:
allows the gov to call up the National guard etc..just a legal formality
Thanks Largo.
Quoting 723. WalkingInTheSun:


"Lurking", lol.
I noticed a lone pink line in the ensemble models showing Karen backtracking to the South, to lurk.
yes the bam model wants karen to backtrak south into central or south florida..wont happen but it sure would fool everyone huh..and...coming back south and over warm waters so much longer, who knows what would happen.
"Sip, sip, sip."
That's the sound of Karen beginning to suck in life-giving moisture from EPAC & Central America.

She sits over warm waters w/ lowering shear.
We must hope she didn't get her feelings hurt by all the ridicule so far. -- You know the saying about "a woman scorned",...and I don't even know what time of month it is for her -- and don't want to ask.
If Karen would have been in the BOC she might have explode like previous storms.I know though that the BOC right now is not favorable for development.
Quoting 726. JrWeathermanFL:
Really Karen..
It's center moved slightly south?? Recon passed 1002.0 is the lowest.. where and why does the NHC forecat restrengthening?
At their 5pm adv would probably show weakening or mantaining strength.
Quoting 731. allancalderini:
Thanks Largo.
here's an excerpt............A state of emergency is a governmental declaration which usually suspends a few normal functions of the executive, legislative and judicial powers, alerts citizens to change their normal behaviors, or orders government agencies to implement emergency preparedness plans. It can also be used as a rationale for suspending rights and freedoms, even if those rights and freedoms are guaranteed under the constitution. A government would normally declare a state of emergency during a time of natural or man-made disaster, during a period of civil unrest, or following a declaration of war or situation of international or internal armed conflict. Justitium is its equivalent in Roman law.
736. IKE
I see outflow boundaries coming out from Karen to the north of the COC.
Quoting 732. LargoFl:
yes the bam model wants karen to backtrak south into central or south florida..wont happen but it sure would fool everyone huh..and...coming back south and over warm waters so much longer, who knows what would happen.


thats where it was expected to go originally when it first became an invest in the caribbean


a photo in the gallery of pensicola beach
Quoting 732. LargoFl:
yes the bam model wants karen to backtrak south into central or south florida..wont happen but it sure would fool everyone huh..and...coming back south and over warm waters so much longer, who knows what would happen.


The latest BAM suite (18z) does not show that path to the south anymore. But the HWRF does now. LOL!!!
Quoting 705. daddyjames:


That's far from drama.


Did a spider crawl on him or something?

Panama disturbance blowing up.
Quoting 713. WalkingInTheSun:




So, this pic does show the CoC is rather apart from the T-storm activity.
for now yes,we'll see if the sheer relaxes tonight..what she will look like tomorrow morning..could be less could be a bit stronger..we'll see..all of the models said nothing was going to happen today
Pretty significant tornado watch...
Quoting 739. fmbill:


The latest BAM suite (18z) does not show that path to the south anymore. But the HWRF does now. LOL!!!
you know..we sure need to keep an eye on this storm till she dies out..you just never know.
Quoting 708. daddyjames:


So, I had this question before . . . what is it that is preventing the upcoming front from pulling Karen off to the immediate north (as shown on the GFS)? Is it that the low lifts off to the north, and the ridge of HP in the SE prevents it from taking a more NE direction?


I thought we discussed this, this morning, DJ? Grab a surface map and proper steering, and look at the high pressure and steering flow. Karen cannot turn northeast until the high pressure over the southeast erodes. It is yet to budge, consequently why Karen's motion continues to be north/northwest. It'll stay that way until your dryline, aka front, moves eastwards to erode the western periphery of the ridge. It'll be about timing, Karen's forward speed which has slowed, and whether Karen gains any strength (doubtful). Again, I would not be surprised to see it not make any kind of neast turn until maybe even after landfall. These "Cedar Key" landfalls are a figment of FL wishcaster imaginations. Pretty simply really.
Quoting 726. JrWeathermanFL:
Really Karen..
It's center moved slightly south?? Recon passed 1002.0 is the lowest.. where and why does the NHC forecat restrengthening?


Going out on a limb, but we may be seeing "out with the old, in with the new". Collapse of the old llc with relocation of the llc under the mlc.

Not sure if happening...
but could Karen be reforming a low under the convection? This low seems to be getting ejected and there was some weird wind shift a while back with a high 1013mb pressure..
Quoting 744. moonlightcowboy:


I thought we discussed this, this morning, DJ? Grab a surface map and proper steering, and look at the high pressure and steering flow. Karen cannot turn northeast until the high pressure over the southeast erodes. It is yet to budge, consequently why Karen's motion continues to be north/northwest. It'll stay that way until your dryline, aka front, moves eastwards to erode the western periphery of the ridge. It'll be about timing, Karen's forward speed which has slowed, and whether Karen gains any strength (doubtful). Again, I would not be surprised to see it not make any kind of neast turn until maybe even after landfall. These "Cedar Key" landfalls are a figment of FL wishcaster imaginations. Pretty simply really.


Here you go, DJ.



Quoting 740. redwagon:


Did a spider crawl on him or something?

Panama disturbance blowing up.


You mean as in falling apart? Arc clouds, high upper level winds, no dicernable circulaiton..
Quoting 724. tropicofcancer:


Sure, lol......and pigs are going to fly!
Good to see you BFF!!!


LMAO.... Nice to see that you came out of the dungeon, BFF.
Quoting 745. daddyjames:


Going out on a limb, but we may be seeing "out with the old, in with the new". Collapse of the old llc with eelocation of the llc under the mlc.



There is no new center.
12Z ECMWF is cheating! It is following the exact path of the NHC. LOL!!!

Quoting 744. moonlightcowboy:


I thought we discussed this, this morning, DJ? Grab a surface map and proper steering, and look at the high pressure and steering flow. Karen cannot turn northeast until the high pressure over the southeast erodes. It is yet to budge, consequently why Karen's motion continues to be north/northwest. It'll stay that way until your dryline, aka front, moves eastwards to erode the western periphery of the ridge. It'll be about timing, Karen's forward speed which has slowed, and whether Karen gains any strength (doubtful). Again, I would not be surprised to see it not make any kind of neast turn until maybe even after landfall. These "Cedar Key" landfalls are a figment of FL wishcaster imaginations. Pretty simply really.


We discussed that the front you were referring to in TX is a dryline, and that the real front was still west of that in New Mexico. The dryline ain't moving nothin'. :P

I know, but the models, I suppose, have been forecasting differences in the high pressure eroding to the north of Karen - and the GFS seems to build a ridge back in (as oppposed to the others).

We are in agreement that Cedar Key is a longshot.
Quoting 751. moonlightcowboy:


There is no new center.


I don't know, let's wait and see . . . like I said - going way out on a limb.
at least we had a storm to follow track and guess about for a few days..sure beats last few weeks in here huh.


Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 19:54Z
Date: October 4, 2013
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number: 12
Storm Name: Karen (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 8

Observation Number: 22

19:55:00Z 26.667N 91.267W 843.6 mb
(~ 24.91 inHg) 1,574 meters
(~ 5,164 feet) 1010.4 mb
(~ 29.84 inHg) - From 65° at 20 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 23.0 mph) 17.0°C
(~ 62.6°F) 16.3°C
(~ 61.3°F) 21 knots
(~ 24.1 mph) 21 knots
(~ 24.1 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 20.0 knots (~ 23.0 mph)
100.0%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 19:45:30Z (first observation), the observation was 260 miles (418 km) to the S (190°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.

At 19:55:00Z (last observation), the observation was 240 miles (387 km) to the SSW (198°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.

757. Tygor
I'm honestly not sure what the fuss has been on here the last couple days, beyond people wishcasting this thing to get much stronger and to hit Florida. Looks like it will remain a non-dangerous storm with copious amounts of rainfall, but nothing these areas can't handle.
Quoting 753. daddyjames:


We discussed that the front you were referring to in TX is a dryline, and that the real front was still west of that in New Mexico. The dryline ain't moving nothin'. :P

I know, but the models, I suppose, have been forecasting differences in the high pressure eroding to the north of Karen - and the GFS seems to build a ridge back in (as oppposed to the others).

We are in agreement that Cedar Key is a longshot.


I'm done talking about this. Look at the "blue" line. That is the front that is expected to erode the ridge and turn Karen northeastwards.

Quoting 758. moonlightcowboy:


I'm done talking about this. Look at the "blue" line. That is the front that is expected to erode the ridge and turn Karen northeastwards.



Yes, but that was not- and is not in West TX. Its in New Mexico.

Edit: Especially earlier this morning.
buoy 42001 at 25.888 N 89.658 W


Quoting 760. daddyjames:


Yes, but that was not- and is not in West TX. Its in New Mexico.


It's the front, DJ, which is what I said. I did say west side of TX. That's pretty much the general location. If you want the last word, you can have it. I will NOT back-n-forth with you. Ignore is coming if you keep it up.
Finally, these are all updated. Shows Karen, the coast, and the timing of the turn differently than earlier.









Here's the Loop
Quoting 741. LargoFl:
for now yes,we'll see if the sheer relaxes tonight..what she will look like tomorrow morning..could be less could be a bit stronger..we'll see..all of the models said nothing was going to happen today


This morning was supposed to be the only small window of opportunity to become a Hurricane, briefly. Then is was anticipated to get sheared further apart and be downgraded prior to landfall. There are to many things happening to its North in the atmosphere for her to get her act together. Time will tell.
Quoting 763. moonlightcowboy:


It's the front, DJ, which is what I said. I did say west side of TX. That's pretty much the general location. If you want the last word, you can have it. I will NOT back-n-forth with you. Ignore is coming if you keep it up.


Come on, we can't have a discussion without feeling offended?

Please, nothing personal is intended by it. Your statement this morning was not clear.

ignore if you feel you must.
767. SLU
Quoting 654. CaneHunter031472:
2005




2013




LOL... Nuf said!!


No prizes for guessing which season had a near record ACE of about 250 and the other has an ACE that might not exceed 30 units.
Quoting 764. LAbonbon:
Finally, these are all updated. Shows Karen, the coast, and the timing of the turn differently than earlier.









Here's the Loop


T H A N K You! This clearly shows the "front"!

20:05:00Z 27.033N 91.667W 842.9 mb
(~ 24.89 inHg) 1,585 meters
(~ 5,200 feet) 1011.7 mb
(~ 29.88 inHg) - From 74° at 20 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 23.0 mph) 16.3°C
(~ 61.3°F) 15.9°C
(~ 60.6°F) 21 knots
(~ 24.1 mph) 9 knots*
(~ 10.3 mph*) 0 mm/hr*
(~ 0 in/hr*) 8.6 knots* (~ 9.9 mph*)
42.9%*
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 19:55:30Z (first observation), the observation was 238 miles (384 km) to the SSW (198°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.

At 20:05:00Z (last observation), the observation was 221 miles (356 km) to the S (174°) from Lafayette, LA, USA.
Quoting 741. LargoFl:
for now yes,we'll see if the sheer relaxes tonight..what she will look like tomorrow morning..could be less could be a bit stronger..we'll see..all of the models said nothing was going to happen today


Recent peek at IR loop seems to show the overall coverage area of the storm is getting slowly larger, with more influx of moisture from southerly areas.
One lone model that stands out that's pointing Karen to Cedar Key.
What's its deal. Don't come here!
774. SLU
Karen's center could be reforming further east under the deep convection.

Quoting 766. daddyjames:


Come on, we can't have a discussion without feeling offended?

Please, nothing personal is intended by it. Your statement this morning was not clear.

ignore if you feel you must.


Oh no, NOT the ignore!!!! Ahhhhh!!!
Hah -- ignore list never stops me from giving my 2 cents. :-))
Btw, speaking of all that, did anyone mention whether all that is happening with Karen is related to GW? (listening intently)
Quoting 772. JrWeathermanFL:
One lone model that stands out that's pointing Karen to Cedar Key.
What's its deal. Don't come here!
only thing one can say..listen to and heed your local warnings,but your right..northern florida doesnt need the rains...would have been wonderful if went to dry texas.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 19:52Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 12L in 2013
Storm Name: Karen (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 19:31:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°45'N 90°13'W (25.75N 90.2167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 292 miles (470 km) to the S (182°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,462m (4,797ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 47kts (~ 54.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the ESE (102°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 188° at 36kts (From the S at ~ 41.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the ESE (106°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1004mb (29.65 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 43kts (~ 49.5mph) which was observed 83 nautical miles (96 statute miles) to the NE (36°) from the flight level center at 17:29:30Z
Quoting 748. fmbill:


You mean as in falling apart? Arc clouds, high upper level winds, no dicernable circulaiton..


Quoting 769. moonlightcowboy:


T H A N K You! This clearly shows the "front"!


I'd been waiting for the full 'suite' showing the turn to be updated. 2 or so come out at a time, then there's a delay of hours for the others. The ones showing the turn were part of the 'lag'. Any idea why there's such a delay? Figure it has to do w/ timing of different model runs, but honestly don't know...

If posted w/o the turn, then folks in central/western LA could worry for nothing :/
Quoting 774. SLU:
Karen's center could be reforming further east under the deep convection.

Her last shot to mantain strength or strength a little bit more.
Quoting 764. LAbonbon:
Finally, these are all updated. Shows Karen, the coast, and the timing of the turn differently than earlier.









Here's the Loop
That' sa path change.
Karen looks like she's slow down some and still east of her forecast points according to the latest vortex message.
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 539
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
240 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

TORNADO WATCH 539 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NEC003-011-021-023-025-027-037-039-043-051-053-05 5-067-095-097-
107-109-119-127-131-133-139-141-147-151-153-155-1 59-167-173-177-
179-050300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0539.131004T1940Z-131005T0300Z/

NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANTELOPE BOONE BURT
BUTLER CASS CEDAR
COLFAX CUMING DAKOTA
DIXON DODGE DOUGLAS
GAGE JEFFERSON JOHNSON
KNOX LANCASTER MADISON
NEMAHA OTOE PAWNEE
PIERCE PLATTE RICHARDSON
SALINE SARPY SAUNDERS
SEWARD STANTON THURSTON
WASHINGTON WAYNE
$$


ATTN...WFO...OAX...FSD
Quoting 775. WalkingInTheSun:


Oh no, NOT the ignore!!!! Ahhhhh!!!
Hah -- ignore list never stops me from giving my 2 cents. :-))
Btw, speaking of all that, did anyone mention whether all that is happening with Karen is related to GW? (listening intently)


Not yet ;)
786. SLU
Quoting 780. allancalderini:
Her last shot to mantain strength or strength a little bit more.


Absolutely
Quoting 755. LargoFl:
at least we had a storm to follow track and guess about for a few days..sure beats last few weeks in here huh.


I like to think of it as group therapy sometimes.
Quoting 781. Doppler22:


Yup local mets said from 4pm-8pm things would fire up. Hopefully the front (the one mlc keeps referring to) will push through quick enough to prevent anything - except for hail - to spin up here in OK.
I am going to wait for next updates for NHC, and recon reports, before making any more conclusions at this point. Using the old "ruler on computer screen and pencil point" method (on the hi-res vis loops), I have determined that the COC has moved very little over the past few hours and tops of the displaced convection continues to be blown away to the east away from the coc.

Convection is still trying to fire near the coc but the storm is quickly losing the battle, at the moment, with the sheer and dry air. It looks much worse at the moment than it did 3 hours ago to my eyes
Wabit, Moonlight??

Any old timwrs here??

In Europre, spotty internet... Trying to get good idea of what is predicted for Destin???

We think neighbors removed canvas from boat, that is really all we would need done if serious threat headed our way - we usually remain reafy.

However, it is difficult to keep up with news and WX when traveling.

Any new would be appreciated. 💙💙💙

When I saw the weird wind shift shown by recon and the center moving SSW.....
could just be horrible disorganization but it'd be bertter if the center reformed under the MLC for the storms sake.
Quoting 786. SLU:


Absolutely


You are right.

URNT12 KWBC 042016
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL122013
A. 04/19:57:17Z
B. 25 deg 47 min N
090 deg 10 min W
C. 700 mb 3137 m
D. 46 kt
E. 357 deg 4 nm
F. 105 deg 36 kt
G. 357 deg 23 nm
H. EXTRAP 1002 mb
I. 14 C / 2438 m
J. 17 C / 2436 m
K. 13 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 7
O. 1 / 1 nm
P. NOAA2 0912A KAREN OB 05
MAX FL WIND 36 KT 357/23 19:50:25Z
MSLP EXTRAP FROM 8000 FT
CENTER SONDE SPLASHED WITH 1006 MB WINDS 080/50 KTS
SURFACE CENTER REFORMING IN CONVECTION SSE OF CTR
CENTER SST 28.7C FROM AXBT
Just a reminder ..

It would be advisable for everyone to read Dr Masters "Rules of the Road" ..

Moderators will be enforcing them as we have a named storm .. keep your comments on Weather ..

Sniping will not be tolerated ..

sniping - To make malicious, underhand remarks or attacks.

The blog will be quite busy today .. if you would like to continue to blog follow those rules ..
Yup local mets said from 4pm-8pm things would fire up. Hopefully the front (the one mlc keeps referring to) will push through quick enough to prevent anything - except for hail - to spin up here in OK.


little bit of talk here by the west texas mets that the front may not move through as fast as predicted...bringing us cooler weather longer than predicted....
Quoting 757. Tygor:
I'm honestly not sure what the fuss has been on here the last couple days, beyond people wishcasting this thing to get much stronger and to hit Florida. Looks like it will remain a non-dangerous storm with copious amounts of rainfall, but nothing these areas can't handle.


UNbeliever!!!
How dare you deny the inevitable fury of the chosen few who could get it right this season!
Don't you BELIEVE this storm is secretly waiting to catch the people offguard just prior to going RI, turning along the coast, turning again,...then again....and slamming Cuba as a Cat 5, then migrating up North as superstorm Karen, making the East Coast tremble in fear, before smashing Novia Scotia so hard that part of it falls off into the sea? -- Oh, um, well, honestly,...me neither. :-o
Quoting 735. LargoFl:
here's an excerpt............A state of emergency is a governmental declaration which usually suspends a few normal functions of the executive, legislative and judicial powers, alerts citizens to change their normal behaviors, or orders government agencies to implement emergency preparedness plans. It can also be used as a rationale for suspending rights and freedoms, even if those rights and freedoms are guaranteed under the constitution. A government would normally declare a state of emergency during a time of natural or man-made disaster, during a period of civil unrest, or following a declaration of war or situation of international or internal armed conflict. Justitium is its equivalent in Roman law.

In some states,it also suspends weight limits on trucks to move supplies, harvest veggies and fruits to market, sets in motion anti- gouging laws, makes it possible to restrict alcohol sales, implement curfews, activate National guard etc.
Quoting 795. ricderr:
Yup local mets said from 4pm-8pm things would fire up. Hopefully the front (the one mlc keeps referring to) will push through quick enough to prevent anything - except for hail - to spin up here in OK.


little bit of talk here by the west texas mets that the front may not move through as fast as predicted...bringing us cooler weather longer than predicted....


How cool for you guys? We're to get a taste of "late fall/early winter" tomorrow.
799. VR46L
Quoting 775. WalkingInTheSun:


Oh no, NOT the ignore!!!! Ahhhhh!!!
Hah -- ignore list never stops me from giving my 2 cents. :-))
Btw, speaking of all that, did anyone mention whether all that is happening with Karen is related to GW? (listening intently)


Urgh Iggy Lists ...

And stirrer on GW :p

(Can hear the keyboard banging and feel the extra WV created by the CO2 about to be burned ;))
Bourbon street WebCam... What about having a Hurricane?

Link
Center reforming could make things interesting, especially since its reforming to the southeast which once again delay poleward movement.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 801. Drakoen:
Center reforming could make things interesting, especially since its reforming to the southeast which once again delay poleward movement.


Ahh, so I wasn't necessarily too far out on that limb ;)
How cool for you guys? We're to get a taste of "late fall/early winter" tomorrow.


a high of only 72 tomorrow and a low of 48 early sun morning......

now iffn that front should slow....well....easterly push is gonna slow too.......waiting for the 5 o clock report to see if they still think it will pan out
Quoting 801. Drakoen:
Center reforming could make things interesting, especially since its reforming to the southeast which once again delay poleward movement.


Hey Drak. Any delay is some more time over the water but I am not seeing "it" unless the sheer drops off and there is something for the extra time to work with.

Very frustrating is the word for all concerned; we are normally dealing with more robust systems in this general location. These "weebles wobble but they don't fall down" ones are a pain............. :)
I'm just wondering been at work all day and trying to figure out what Karen is up to. I am from Satsuma,Al right outside of Mobile, Al are we still gonna get anything from her? I have drank a few Bushwackers from the Whistle Stop and really just trying to figure things out if someone could help out a little. Thank you in advanced...

sheri
Quoting 785. daddyjames:


Not yet ;)


Well, surely GW must be causing all that dry air in the W GOM that is interferring with Karen, huh? :~o
The LLCOC is still clearly pretty vigorous and the main body of convection and mid level circulation has been pulling east of the LLCOC again after moving closer together earlier. No clear signs of the COC dying off and reforming under the MLC. Looks like this is going to remain a sheared mess with the COC staying alive and west of the growing body of convection, likely until landfall. Could we instead see a competing COC form under the MLC? Just this has been decoupled now for 14 plus hours and the LLCOC hasn't weakened much.
Popping in out of lurk mode to say thanks for all the good info on Karen. Keeping a close watch here in PCB and will post pics if we get any weather out of it. Back to lurking..
Is Karen reforming in another area or anything at all?
Nice to see the models in better agreement. Since a storm (not to be named) was forecasted to land elsewhere for days - some of us get nervous with models that don't agree - not that Karen is a strong threat - just caused us (well me actually) to question and stay glued to the news/coordinates etc. Mostly the NHC has been almost spot on in the years since with landfall... But am still watching - until landfall....
Its a good news that tropical Storm Karen is getting weaker because its struggling against wind shear. :)
Oh. its horrible.. :O
Karen has looked a lot, to me, like a typical June storm. The activity is all on the east side and it has just never gotten wrapped around the COC.

I wonder if the movement of that front from TX will be as fast as predicted. If not, as someone suggested it might not be, then wouldn't that mean a much later turn to the NE?

Thanks.
I guess my opinion from this morning didn't totally suck. The latest NHC track appears to be following the track I thought it would, though they seem to take it a bit further east on the second "landfall" after clipping LA.

I don't think Karen will get tugged quite that hard to the east. I still think the second landfall will be slightly further west inside Mississippi around Pascagoula. I'm also pretty much convinced that at best it will be a strong tropical storm, but more likely it will be a moderate one. There won't be enough time in a low shear environment, and by the time she gets there she'll be sucking in dry continental air as well.

Just my opinion though. Most likely I will be completely wrong. :)
Based on the HH passes, Karen is under a weak steering flow which likely signals a transition from a N/NW movement to a N/NE type movement in the next 24 to 48 hours... IMO.