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Karen Having Trouble With Dry Air and High Wind Shear

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:25 PM GMT on October 03, 2013

Tropical Storm Karen is having trouble with dry air and high wind shear as the storm heads north-northwest at 12 mph into the Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force hurricane hunter plane is in the storm, and found top surface winds near 65 mph between 3:30 - 4:30 pm EDT Thursday, and a central pressure of 999 mb, 5 mb lower than this morning's. Satellite loops show that Karen is a medium-sized storm whose heavy thunderstorms have declined in intensity and areal coverage since this morning. The heavy thunderstorms are all on the northern and eastern flanks of the storm, and the low-level center is exposed to view. High wind shear of 20 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the west-southwest, is driving dry air from the Western Gulf of Mexico into Karen's core. Heavy thunderstorms are having difficulty building on the west and south sides of Karen's center of circulation because of the shear, resulting in a lopsided comma-shape on satellite imagery. Karen is attempting to build an eyewall, and has managed to wrap a band of heavy thunderstorm about half way around its center. If this band wraps all the way around, Karen will likely be able to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane. Karen has a strong upper-level outflow channel to its north that is helping ventilate the storm, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). Ocean heat content is about 30 kJ per square centimeter, which is fairly typical for this time of year, and does not increase the odds of rapid intensification. Strong southeasterly winds ahead of Karen are already pushing tides 1 - 1.5' above normal along the coast from Eastern Louisiana to Alabama, as seen on our wundermap with the storm surge layer turned on.


Figure 1. Predicted 3-day rainfall totals for Karen, generated at 3:14 pm EDT Thursday October 3, 2013. NHC now puts this product on their website.


Figure 2. Ocean heat content (also called the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, TCHP) for October 3, 2013, along the path of Tropical Storm Karen, was about 20 - 40 kJ per square centimeter. This is a fairly ocean heat content for this time of year, and does not increase the odds of rapid intensification. TCHP values above about 75 kJ per square centimeter are typically associated with rapid intensification. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.

Forecast for Karen
Wind shear is expected to increase as the storm heads north-northwest, and shear will be quite high, 25 knots, on Saturday, as Karen closes in on the U.S. Gulf Coast, according to the 2 pm EDT SHIPS model forecast. The atmosphere will grow drier as Karen moves into the Northern Gulf of Mexico, and the drier air combined with increasing wind shear will retard development, making only slow intensification likely through Friday. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn Karen more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Saturday. The higher shear, combined with ocean temperatures that will drop to 28°C, should be able to induce weakening, and the 5 pm EDT Thursday wind probability forecast from NHC gave a 23% chance Karen will be a hurricane at 2 pm EDT Saturday, down from 41% odds at 2 am EDT Saturday.

The models are split into two camps for Karen's track. The European, UKMET, and GFDL models have Karen making landfall over Central or Eastern Louisiana. These models keep Karen relatively weak, resulting in a path that follows the low-level winds more to the west, where there is more dry air and higher wind shear. The GFS model and HWRF model keep Karen stronger, and predict a landfall in the Western Florida Panhandle. NHC is splitting the difference between these two solutions, which is a reasonable compromise. Most of Karen's heavy thunderstorms will be displaced to the east by high wind shear when the storm makes landfall, and there will likely be relatively low rainfall totals of 1 - 3" to the immediate west of where the center. Much higher rainfall totals of 4 - 8" can be expected to the east. To judge the possibilities of receiving tropical storm-force winds at your location, I recommend using the NHC wind probability forecast. The highest odds of tropical storm-force winds (44 - 66%), according to NHC's 5 pm EDT Thursday forecast, are along the coast from Buras, Louisiana, to Pensacola, Florida.


Figure 3. A possible analogue for Karen: Hurricane Ida of 2009 followed a path very similar to Karen's, and was a hurricane just south of Louisiana before suddenly weakening to an extratropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds as it made landfall in Alabama.

A possible analogue for Karen: Hurricane Ida of 2009
We have little skill forecasting intensity, and I expect that at landfall, Karen has a 20% probability of being a Category 1 hurricane with 75 - 85 mph winds, and a 20% chance of being a minimal tropical storm with 40 - 45 mph winds. One possible scenario is a repeat of what happened with Hurricane Ida of 2009. Ida took a track very similar to Karen's, and was a hurricane with 75 mph winds just south of the mouth of the Mississippi River in Louisiana. High wind shear from an approaching trough of low pressure, combined with cooler ocean temperatures near shore, combined to cause a sudden weakening of the storm. Ida became extratropical a few hours before making landfall on the Alabama coast, and brought top sustained winds of 40 - 50 mph to the coast from Shell Beach, Louisiana to Waveland, Mississippi.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1501. Gearsts
Quoting 1496. IKE:
It's his opinion. If he's wrong he's wrong. What does it matter? Beautiful sunrise here at my residence this morning....coming up over Lake Holley in Defuniak Springs,FL.

Temp is an even 70 degrees. TGIF :)
He said people should prepare for a 100 mph hurricane and that in my opinion is irresponsible of him.
1502. barbamz

Recon (mission 7): Sudden turn towards northeast?
Link to recon google earth.
Coordinates latest dropsonde: 25.2N 89.8W
1503. LargoFl
Quoting 1498. Torito:
GFS 72 hour:

Karen makes landfall as a strong TS or weak cat 1.




GFS 87 hour:

Karen makes it through FL and emerges on the east side of the state.



Karen then proceeds to travel up the coast....

96 hour



105 hour





114 hour



153 hour

Karen is fully merged with the front, and a NEW TROPICAL SYSTEM FORMS IN THE ATLANTIC.


TY for posting the whole run,folks do need to stay alert
1504. Torito
Reposting due to the post being cut off by being the 2nd to last post on one page....



GFS 72 hour:

Karen makes landfall as a strong TS or weak cat 1.




GFS 87 hour:

Karen makes it through FL and emerges on the east side of the state.



Karen then proceeds to travel up the coast....

96 hour



105 hour





114 hour



153 hour

Karen is fully merged with the front, and a NEW TROPICAL SYSTEM FORMS IN THE ATLANTIC.


1505. Torito
Quoting 1503. LargoFl:
TY for posting the whole run,folks do need to stay alert


Yea, no problem. I will probably post it a few times throughout the day to get the word out.
1506. JasonRE
Is there ANY possible way this thing stays farther West than predicted. I know there is always a possibility of these things turning, etc but typically when a path like this is determined, it's usually spot on. Here in SE LA, Lafayette area.

Thanks!
Quoting 1501. Gearsts:
He said people should prepare for a 100 mph hurricane and that in my opinion is irresponsible of him.
Dont blame him.Blame the crystal ball he use for forecast.
1508. Torito
Quoting 1506. JasonRE:
Is there ANY possible way this thing stays farther West than predicted. I know there is always a possibility of these things turning, etc but typically when a path like this is determined, it's usually spot on. Here in SE LA, Lafayette area.

Thanks!


Yes. the gfs sort of depicts some westward movement early in the run before turning north east.... if the turn does not happen, which is possible if the front that moves it NE does not make it to Karen in time, the storm will hit in that general area you live in.

^Based on GFS 48 hours, at the westernmost part of the track of the system on this model.

1509. LargoFl
Notice this part..of the nws tampa forecast..THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF KAREN WILL KEEP WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FL ON THE FRINGE OF TROPICAL STORM IMPACTS. INCREASING
WAVES AND SWELLS FROM KAREN MAY BEGIN TO REACH COASTAL WATERS SUN
AND PRODUCE AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF...THIS
THREAT WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH OUT THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ANY
CHANGES IN THE TRACK COULD SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA...RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD INSURE THEY ARE USING THE
LATEST AVAILABLE FORECASTS.
Quoting 1500. LargoFl:
he was following the GFS and the HWRF models and now the GFL is coming onboard with a hit on the eastern panhandle or big bend area as I am also and he has family there which is why he was concerned,my son is in tallahassee so Im watching it also..its reasonable for us to do so.


She would have to start turning now to do that IMO. She's still moving NW and then is expected to turn North and slow down. I guess it all depends on the timing of her NE turn. We all know she's going to make the turn, just when is it going to be. Originally they had her hitting NW Florida on Saturday, now she's forecast to hit us on Sunday. Fun storm to watch since she's not getting too strong.
1511. IKE
Latest CMC has it going in in the western GOM region. So does the 0Z NAVGEM. Then getting picked up by the trough.

Here's the 00Z ECMWF @ 72 hours....


1512. guygee
Quoting 1495. LargoFl:
im watching her closely..we must remember this IS october in florida and storm patterns say..recurvature over florida Most likely
Personally I do not think that the LLC will recurve enough, but otherwise I agree with you, watch it until it is dead and gone. There have been too many bad surprises in the past to relax just yet.
Hmmmm NHC still has Hurricane watches up yet they are no longer predicting a hurricane. Why?



1514. Torito
Quoting 1513. AussieStorm:
Hmmmm NHC still has Hurricane watches up yet they are no longer predicting a hurricane. Why?





Because of a potential 5MPH error in their predictions. :P
1515. JasonRE
@ Torito - Thanks for the information. I appreciate it.
1516. mrmombq
Quoting 1502. barbamz:

Recon (mission 7): Sudden turn towards northeast?
Link to recon google earth.
Yea I noticed that too seems odd unless its a relocation of center?
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 11:49Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 12L in 2013
Storm Name: Karen (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 16
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 11:14:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°11'N 90°00'W (25.1833N 90.W)
B. Center Fix Location: 331 miles (533 km) to the S (179°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,451m (4,760ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 31kts (~ 35.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the WNW (303°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 22° at 19kts (From the NNE at ~ 21.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the WNW (301°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,528m (5,013ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,528m (5,013ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 54kts (~ 62.1mph) which was observed 85 nautical miles (98 statute miles) to the NE (52°) from the flight level center at 10:05:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 38kts (~ 43.7mph) which was observed 47 nautical miles (54 statute miles) to the N (3°) from the flight level center at 11:28:30Z
Maximum SFMR Estimated Surface Wind Outbound: 38kts (~ 43.7mph) which was observed 47 nautical miles (54 statute miles) to the N (3°) from the flight level center at 11:28:30Z
1518. LargoFl
Quoting 1516. mrmombq:
Yea I noticed that too seems odd unless its a relocation of center?
I just hope karen doesnt decide to come into florida sooner and lower down the state
1519. Torito
Quoting 1515. JasonRE:
@ Torito - Thanks for the information. I appreciate it.


No problem. :)
1520. Gearsts
Moving north now
1521. Torito
Quoting 1520. Gearsts:
Moving north now


Im thinking NNW right now :P
Karen struggling..
1523. LargoFl
Quoting 1510. 69Viking:


She would have to start turning now to do that IMO. She's still moving NW and then is expected to turn North and slow down. I guess it all depends on the timing of her NE turn. We all know she's going to make the turn, just when is it going to be. Originally they had her hitting NW Florida on Saturday, now she's forecast to hit us on Sunday. Fun storm to watch since she's not getting too strong.
yeah there was a run yesterday that brought her close to oh NO or miss/ala then having her run along the gulf coast to the panhandle or big bend area..that could..still happen
1524. guygee
Quoting 1504. Torito:
Reposting due to the post being cut off by being the 2nd to last post on one page....
I am on the 200 post per page plan.
1525. IKE
Looks like 60mph TS is being generous....at this time.
1526. Torito
Quoting 1524. guygee:
I am on the 200 post per page plan.



default is at 50, so just taking extra measures to keep others safe. I don't want this system to cause death.
Quoting 1489. 69Viking:


So what was his forecast and why does it matter?


Yesterday there were probably 50+ worthless posts where Scott or one of his followers were bragging about his forecast. Almost every post Scott made started with "I was right about .......

Overall, his forecast was wrong. The storm did not do what he forecasted it to do.

I think it's all ridiculous. His constant bragging about his forecasts is what brought all this attention to the situation (and all the wasted posts).

1528. Gearsts
1529. LargoFl
well regardless of how she looks right now..she is Still a tropical storm...............BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL AL122013
700 AM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013

...KAREN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD
LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 90.0W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

Hi SLU. More runs by GFS that has MDR activity.
Quoting 1520. Gearsts:
Moving north now


Nope you are looking at the convection the COC is further to the west and is moving NW/NNW
Quoting 1520. Gearsts:
Moving north now
Naked swirl moving north now.
AL, 12, 2013100412, , BEST, 0, 253N, 901W, 45, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 110, 0, 60, 1012, 125, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, KAREN, M,

Oh, man, so close! All she needs is the shear to relax, the dry air to go away, the waters to warm a bit, some convection to wrap around the center, the pressure to drop a dozen millibars or so, and the winds to come up 20 knots, and we'll have the hurricane some were forecasting for today... ;-)
1534. IKE
Interesting.....


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.0 WEST. KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE
COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT.


MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WITH SOME STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 42001 LOCATED
ABOUT 60 MILES...95 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...RECENTLY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 38 MPH...61 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF
49 MPH...79 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
AIRCRAFT IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


What a mess Karen is this morning.
Quoting 1513. AussieStorm:
Hmmmm NHC still has Hurricane watches up yet they are no longer predicting a hurricane. Why?





Probably because of what they said in their 4 am discussion, see bold below.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS RATHER PROBLEMATIC. FIRST...KAREN IS
LIKELY TO INTERACT WITH A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE SOME SUPPORT FOR RENEWED CONVECTION.
SECOND...THE SHEAR MAY DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...WHICH
COULD ALLOW FOR INTENSIFICATION...ESPECIALLY IF KAREN TURNS
NORTHEASTWARD WHILE STILL OVER WATER. THE ECMWF SHOWS ABOUT 10 MB
OF DEEPENING AFTER RECURVATURE...AND THE GFS...HWRF...AND GFDL
MODELS SHOW MORE. BASED ON THESE MODELS AND CURRENT TRENDS...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS MODIFIED TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
THROUGH 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY INTENSIFICATION TO NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH BY 48 HOURS.
AFTER LANDFALL...KAREN SHOULD WEAKEN AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AS IT MERGES WITH THE DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH.
1537. Gearsts
Quoting 1531. nola70119:


Nope you are looking at the convection the COC is further to the west and is moving NW/NNW
The center is naked on that pic and in my opinion is finally moving N
1538. LargoFl
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...............URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM KAREN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
537 AM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...KAREN WEAKENS A LITTLE...EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NONE.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND GULF COAST
WATERS AND BAYS FROM DESTIN TO PASGAGOULA OUT 60NM.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...UPPER
MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...LOWER BALDWIN...INLAND
ESCAMBIA...COASTAL ESCAMBIA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...COASTAL SANTA
ROSA...INLAND OKALOOSA AND COASTAL OKALOOSA.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL OF
THE BAYS AND SOUNDS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA...AND GULF
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PASCAGOULA OUT 60NM.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.9N...LONGITUDE 89.8W. THIS WAS ABOUT 410 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MOBILE AL...OR ABOUT 410 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF PENSACOLA FL. STORM MOTION WAS NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH.
STORM INTENSITY WAS 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
GREAT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN KAREN'S TRACK AND THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST TURNS KAREN
GRADUALLY MORE NORTHWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATER TODAY
WITH ANOTHER GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE ALABAMA COAST EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. STORM SURGE MAY PRODUCE 2 TO 4 FEET OF TOTAL INUNDATION FROM
THE UPPER REACHES OF MOBILE BAY AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
SOUNDS TO THE ALABAMA- MISSISSIPPI BORDER. EAST OF MOBILE BAY 1 TO 3
FEET OF INUNDATION IS FORECAST INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
DURING THE HOURS SURROUNDING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SATURDAY EVENING
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS WHEN THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS SHOULD BE
OBSERVED WITH A VERY SLOW WATER RECESSION DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST APPROACHING HURRICANE FORCE WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN RAIN BANDS...TAPERING OFF TO 35 TO 45 MPH WELL INLAND
OVER SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF KAREN'S CENTER. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS KAREN'S OUTER RAINBANDS APPROACH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN AT THIS TIME.

&&
Quoting 1532. prcane4you:
Naked swirl moving north now.


COC is to the West you aren't seeing the storm structure....
Good Morning. Just checking in after a long evening with family issues (nothing bad) and am a bit shocked to see the circulation spinning up towards La and all of the displaced circulation moving towards Key West.

I thought the storm had made an unexpected hard right overnight at first as my loops started to load............... :)


Gonna wait now until the first good visible shots of the day, and recon, to try and figure out what is going on at the surface.
Quoting 1527. Sfloridacat5:


Yesterday there were probably 50+ worthless posts where Scott or one of his followers were bragging about his forecast. Almost every post Scott made started with "I was right about .......

Overall, his forecast was wrong. The storm did not do what he forecasted it to do.

I think it's all ridiculous. His constant bragging about his forecasts is what brought all this attention to the situation (and all the wasted posts).

There's a job for him at NHC.
1542. Torito
For those who are not the best at geography, this is the general track the system is LIKELY to take...

1543. IKE
Convection closer to the COC. Does appear to be turning more to the north. Could be just a wobble. Wait on later frames to verify.
Quoting 1532. prcane4you:
Naked swirl moving north now.


You need to have your eyes checked....
Quoting 1501. Gearsts:
He said people should prepare for a 100 mph hurricane and that in my opinion is irresponsible of him.


I don't think that's irresponsible. Irresponsible to me would be to giude people into letting their guard down. Maybe a little exagerated, but not irresponsible. Anyway the safer thing to do is to follow NHC advisories. IMHO.
1546. Gearsts
2013

vs
2005



Quoting 1539. nola70119:


COC is to the West you aren't seeing the storm structure....
Nola,naked swirl is heading your way.
1548. LargoFl
Quoting 1546. Gearsts:
2013

vs

2005

LOL good one
GFDL.... must not turn right... must not turn right... must not turn right......



1550. IKE

Quoting Gearsts:
2013

vs

2005

LOL....but which one is easier to take? To live with.
1551. Torito
Quoting 1546. Gearsts:
2013

vs
2005





in the exact same place, eh? :P
1552. Torito
Quoting 1549. nrtiwlnvragn:
GFDL.... must not turn right... must not turn right... must not turn right......





yea, that model predicts the front to be too slow to turn Karen to the east.

:P
1553. LargoFl
be careful guys..mods posted many warnings yesterday about making fun of or attacking other posters..
Quoting 1551. Torito:


in the exact same place, eh? :P


You Canadian?
1555. Patrap
Quoting 1531. nola70119:


Nope you are looking at the convection the COC is further to the west and is moving NW/NNW


And is exposed....
Well you can not deny that Karen is a fighter shes trying to build the storms back around the center-- yeah poorly but still!
Just imagine what a beast she could have been if this was a month earlier I mean for a tropical storm she is trying her best to thumb it to mother nature thats trying her best to kill karen!..
1558. Torito
Quoting 1554. Dragod66:


You Canadian?


nope. I'm in MD, USA.
Quoting 1542. Torito:
For those who are not the best at geography, this is the general track the system is LIKELY to take...

Just what I think.
I still think Karen could become a Category 1 briefly before landfall like I called yesterday.
Quoting 1533. Neapolitan:
AL, 12, 2013100412, , BEST, 0, 253N, 901W, 45, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 110, 0, 60, 1012, 125, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, KAREN, M,

Oh, man, so close! All she needs is the shear to relax, the dry air to go away, the waters to warm a bit, some convection to wrap around the center, the pressure to drop a dozen millibars or so, and the winds to come up 20 knots, and we'll have the hurricane some were forecasting for today... ;-)


LOL!
1562. ncstorm
Quoting 1533. Neapolitan:
AL, 12, 2013100412, , BEST, 0, 253N, 901W, 45, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 110, 0, 60, 1012, 125, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, KAREN, M,

Oh, man, so close! All she needs is the shear to relax, the dry air to go away, the waters to warm a bit, some convection to wrap around the center, the pressure to drop a dozen millibars or so, and the winds to come up 20 knots, and we'll have the hurricane some were forecasting for today... ;-)


yeah, because we dont want those ACE numbers to go up..
1563. LargoFl
gee its going to be a LONG day today watching what this storm does..IM perking another pot of the blogs Coffee for y'all..we are gonna need it lol.
1564. LargoFl
Quoting 1557. Pcola32507:
Well you can not deny that Karen is a fighter shes trying to build the storms back around the center-- yeah poorly but still!
Just imagine what a beast she could have been if this was a month earlier I mean for a tropical storm she is trying her best to thumb it to mother nature thats trying her best to kill karen!..
yes she could have been a big one huh
1565. Patrap
Ahh, we have plenty of wunderground secret decoder rings for Winning your forecast.

Congratulations!!
Quoting 1523. LargoFl:
yeah there was a run yesterday that brought her close to oh NO or miss/ala then having her run along the gulf coast to the panhandle or big bend area..that could..still happen


I know, regardless looks like a wet weekend here in the Panhandle. Like we really need more rain.
Fact of the matter is that this particular storm is not in the most optimum conditions like we usually see in September. It's a fine line/balancing act between all of the supporting factors (sheer/ssts/moisture, etc.) and it's a tough environment for this one.

It will do strange things as the current factors align or miss-align at any given point over the course of a few hours........It would be a different situation, and possibly a major, if this was three weeks ago, but the currently this system is still tying to find a "sweet spot"; that is questionable at this point and probably why NHC is now looking at a tropical storm through landfall.
Naked swirl warning for NOLA,if that possible?
1569. Torito
I think NAM is the off the most out of all of the models right now... it predicts Karen to degenerate into a TD and make landfall in LA...

NAM 75 hours:



Sorry, NAM, you are benched for now.
1571. ncstorm
Quoting 1553. LargoFl:
be careful guys..mods posted many warnings yesterday about making fun of or attacking other posters..


Yeah but some on here get free passes or will just change their posts in about 3 minutes to an image of a radar..

the GFDL seems to think the front will be too slow to pick up karen and swing her to the NE. Are other models in agreement with that. It seems the GFS wants to make this a northern FL storm and take it out to the ocean and up the east coast.
1573. Torito
Quoting 1572. rmbjoe1954:
the GFDL seems to think the front will be too slow to pick up karen and swing her to the NE. Are other models in agreement with that. It seems the GFS wants to make this a northern FL storm and take it out to the ocean and up the east coast.


NAM seems to want to do the same thing, however, the intensity of Karen on that model is so different from all of the other models.

See post 1569.
Quoting 1501. Gearsts:
He said people should prepare for a 100 mph hurricane and that in my opinion is irresponsible of him.


Many of the models were showing that this was a possibility. The NHC was saying that this was a possibility. There was a big swirly thing in the gulf with significant convection and tropical storm stats.

Irresponsible?
1575. LargoFl
Quoting 1566. 69Viking:


I know, regardless looks like a wet weekend here in the Panhandle. Like we really need more rain.
yeah with all the rains florida has been getting over months and months we dont need anymore heavy rains..add to that the ground below is still saturated add to that 60-70mph Sustained winds..i'd be watching the tree's very closely..hurry up december
I got a question some one mentioned it earlier with that trough approaching could that intensify the storm as it nears the coast??
Models have shifted with both Karen and Atlas. Karan now to the Big Bend of Florida. Atlas now gonna make a visit to the northeast! Which will bring a cold front through here next week.
Quoting 1560. FunnelVortex:
I still think Karen could become a Category 1 briefly before landfall like I called yesterday.
After that briefly moment,a naked swirl again.
Quoting 1555. Patrap:


Looks like she's slowing and making that turn to the North.
1580. Torito
Quoting 1576. Pcola32507:
I got a question some one mentioned it earlier with that trough approaching could that intensify the storm as it nears the coast??


Yes, as it could potentally lower shear and remove some of the dry air around where Karen would be located at the time.
on that last satellite pic big blob of moisture is getting close to wrapping around the COC next few hrs will be make or break,
Quoting 1571. ncstorm:


Yeah but some on here get free passes or will just change their posts in about 3 minutes to an image of a radar..



Thats the thing about the mods. They favor some over others.
Quoting 1569. Torito:
I think NAM is the off the most out of all of the models right now... it predicts Karen to degenerate into a TD and make landfall in LA...

NAM 75 hours:



If conditions stay this hostile that might not be far off the mark.
1584. LargoFl
Quoting 1571. ncstorm:


Yeah but some on here get free passes or will just change their posts in about 3 minutes to an image of a radar..

Lol,Lol
1586. barbamz

Ha! New Vortex fix to the northeast!
1587. Patrap
1588. LargoFl
Quoting 1576. Pcola32507:
I got a question some one mentioned it earlier with that trough approaching could that intensify the storm as it nears the coast??
nws mentioned that also
1589. Torito
Quoting 1586. barbamz:

Ha!


Lol.. another spiderweb path from the recon.....
"I should be a Cat 3 right now. I'm a K storm in the Gulf of Mexico in early October. Somebody take a shotgun to the 2013 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season and put it out of its misery already." - TS Karen
1591. ncstorm
those in the severe weather risk area today..stay safe and heed your local warnings..



Greg Forbes Torcon Index
Friday, Oct. 4

Limited-area severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak. Severe thunderstorms in IA, south MN, south half WI, southwest MI, north IL, northwest MO, east NE, extreme southeast SD, east and south-central KS, north-central and southwest OK. TOR:CON - 5 north IA, south MN; 4 south IA; 3 to 4 south WI; 3 east NE; 2 to 3 rest of area.

A chance of an isolated severe thunderstorm overnight in northeast WI and northwest MI.

TOR:CON FRIDAY
IA north half - 5
IA south half - 4
IL north - 2 to 3
KS east, south-central - 2
MI southwest - 2
MI northwest - 2 night
MN south - 5
MO northwest - 3 to 4
NE east - 3
OK north-central, southwest - 2
SD extreme southeast - 3
WI south half - 3 to 4
WI northeast - 2 night
other areas - 1
Saturday, Oct. 5

Isolated severe thunderstorms in the east half of WI, MI, IN, northwest OH, central and east IL, west KY, west TN, northeast AR. TOR:CON - 2 to 3

A chance of an isolated severe thunderstorm along the cold front in southeast AR, MS, LA, southeast TX. TOR:CON - 1

Heavy rain and a chance of an isolated damaging gust or brief tornadoes from Karen rainbands in extreme southeast LA, southeast MS, south AL, FL panhandle. TOR:CON - 2 or less through afternoon; 2 to 3 overnight
Sunday, Oct. 6

Isolated severe thunderstorms in NY, VT, PA, northeast WV, MD, DC, north NJ, north DE, north and central VA. TOR:CON - less than 2

Heavy rain and a chance of an isolated damaging gust or brief tornado from T.S. Karen or its remnants over the FL panhandle, southeast AL, central and south GA, west SC, northeast FL and overnight across SC, southeast NC. TOR:CON - 2, at this time.
Monday, Oct. 7

The remnants of T.S. Karen may be moving across central NC toward southeast VA, which would bring heavy rain and a chance of a damaging gust or brief tornado in east SC, east half NC, southeast VA, southeast MD, DE, south NJ. TOR:CON - 2, for now.
1592. guygee
First rays of dawn just lighting the highest clouds in the Gulf of Mexico.

1593. Patrap
Karen has a wide CoC..as he plane is finding, still 999mb.

I just wonder. With the center away from the convection, will we even notice it's passing by us? Isn't the winds ussually located in the convective area?

1595. LargoFl
Some lesser shown models


University of Wisconsin






COAMPS

Quoting 1584. LargoFl:


It "looks" like a hard right but the coc is still trucking towards the Northern Gulf Coast; the question now is whether the coc can rebuild some convection before landfall.

It's going to be a little hard to do that (pull some convection back in or re-fire new ones) if the pressure starts to rise.............. Have to wait on recon for that one to confirm what is happening at the surface pressure-wise.

Just a reminder ..

It would be advisable for everyone to read Dr Masters "Rules of the Road" ..

Moderators will be enforcing them as we have a named storm .. keep your comments on Weather ..

Sniping will not be tolerated ..

sniping - To make malicious, underhand remarks or attacks.

The blog will be quite busy today .. if you would like to continue to blog follow those rules ..

Quoting 1583. Xyrus2000:


If conditions stay this hostile that might not be far off the mark.
NAM predicts anything.
1600. barbamz

COC is overshadowed.

And due to the easterly turn COC is moving towards the convection, I guess.
1601. Patrap
SW IR Loop


Quoting 1568. prcane4you:
Naked swirl warning for NOLA,if that possible?
that's funny wonder what would happen if the eye of the naked swirl passes directly overhead you would get a wind shift???
1603. LargoFl
Quoting 1594. CaneHunter031472:
I just wonder. With the center away from the convection, will we even notice it's passing by us? Isn't the winds ussually located in the convective area?

when it slows and begins to intensify and makes that right hand turn,we could possibly see a very different storm then how she looks now..we just need to watch wait and stay alert...im watching out for a fast turn to the right..my area is not out of the woods fully just yet.

Quoting 1601. Patrap:
SW IR Loop

she's trying
1605. Torito

for new page...
1607. mfcmom
Just my humble opinion here, some of this sniping and making fun of others is not cool. Even if this storm fizzles, the fact is still there that any large amounts of rainfall in the panhandle can be so very dangerous right now as we are still recovering from being swamped with water all summer long and the ground is more than saturated. Please stop it. People could still be in danger. Thank you.
1608. LargoFl
Quoting 1597. weathermanwannabe:


It "looks" like a hard right but the coc is still trucking towards the Northern Gulf Coast; the question now is whether the coc can rebuild some convection before landfall.

It's going to be a little hard to do that (pull some convection back in or re-fire new ones) if the pressure starts to rise.............. Have to wait on recon for that one to confirm what is happening at the surface pressure-wise.

yes nhc doesnt think reintensification untill saturday..she may even weaken a bit more today..tomorrow if it happens will be the active day.
Quoting 1600. barbamz:

COC is overshadowed.

And due to the easterly turn COC is moving towards the convection, I guess.
Nope,COC is moving away to the north,I guess
So I assume NHC is ignoring the GFS right now simply cause the Euro model said the storm would lose intensity and arrive further west and turn right later.. So if the storm was to take advantage of the sheer lowering today and strengthen and develop more around the center than maybe the NHC will side with the GFS ( since it said a stronger storm ) but since it looks horrible and weakened they have to assume the Euro model has a handle on it.. Just my observation why they dont consider the big bend area in danger..YET!!
1611. Patrap
7:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 4
Location: 25.2°N 90.0°W
Moving: NNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph
Quoting 1604. breeezee:

she's trying
Maybe "she" don't know to try.
1614. Torito
Quoting 1611. Patrap:
7:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 4
Location: 25.2°N 90.0°W
Moving: NNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph


NNW, thought so. by tomorrow you should start seeing it turn to the east very slightly.

(NNE)
1615. Patrap
The Front/First Feeder, is off the La Coast

1616. Patrap
1617. SLU
Quoting 1530. Tropicsweatherpr:
Hi SLU. More runs by GFS that has MDR activity.


Some good consensus coming through now but any development of this system will likely be slow to occur due to the presence of dry/stable air across the Atlantic ocean.

To my eyes, the storm is currently in the worst shape that I have seen over the last 24 hours. Let's be real; the outflow looked excellent yesterday and right now the circulation is fully detached from the convection and I am not seeing any outflow at the upper levels.

The current sheer is not allowing the storm to stack up; Karen is in trouble unless the sheer relaxes a bit. Just my personal opinion at the moment.
1619. ncstorm


1620. SLU
Quoting 1546. Gearsts:
2013

vs
2005





Yes, 2013 has turned the Atlantic into the laughing stock of global TC activity.

ACE to date ~ 24 units.
Quoting 1533. Neapolitan:
AL, 12, 2013100412, , BEST, 0, 253N, 901W, 45, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 110, 0, 60, 1012, 125, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, KAREN, M,

Oh, so close. All she needs is the shear to relax, the dry air to go away, the waters to warm a bit, some convection to wrap around the center, the pressure to drop a dozen millibars or so, and the winds to come up 20 knots, and we'll have the hurricane some were forecasting for today... ;-)


Nice Neo lol, +1000
1622. FLDART1
It appears that convection may be developing near the COC once again.
1623. LargoFl
now THIS is what I myself am watching out for..this being October..Notice the HUGE change in the Bams model track....
1624. Patrap

1626. Patrap
I'll take 0 ACE every year in exchange for NO impacts.

1627. LargoFl
Quoting 1625. GeoffreyWPB:
please dont make that hard right just yet
1628. fmbill
Quoting 1623. LargoFl:
now THIS is what I myself am watching out for..this being October..Notice the HUGE change in the Bams model track....


LOL! That run of the BAM shallow is a trip! Even if it did follow that path, Karen would be so sheered apart I dont think it would even be a "naked swirl", she would just be naked! :-)
1629. LargoFl
Notice how many models bring karen up to a midrange Cat-1 Hurricane for a time....
1631. IKE

Well the low level circulation on this storm looks perfect, if it ever heads anywhere towards the direction the convection is traveling look out. That's why the NHC is a little skittish on their intensity forecast. If stops for a short period before going ne watch out.
Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 12:25Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Number & Year: 12L in 2013
Storm Name: Karen (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 32
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 11:44:19Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°10'N 89°48'W (25.1667N 89.8W)
B. Center Fix Location: 333 miles (536 km) to the S (177°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,121m (10,240ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 38kts (~ 43.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 35 nautical miles (40 statute miles) to the WNW/NW (304°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 26° at 25kts (From the NNE at ~ 28.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the WNW (301°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg) was coded in Item H, however the MSLP in the remarks section was 999mb (29.50 inHg) extrapolated from 8,000 ft
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,310m (7,579ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,302m (7,552ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Minimum Sea Level Pressure Coded in Remarks: 999mb (29.50 inHg) extrapolated from 8,000 ft
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 46kts (~ 52.9mph) which was observed 76 nautical miles (87 statute miles) to the E (95°) from the flight level center at 8:53:50Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 20°C (68°F) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the WNW/NW (304°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SONDE SPLASHED WITH SURFACE WINDS 272 AT 08 KT
Quoting 1622. FLDART1:
It appears that convection may be developing near the COC once again.
Sheared system,so convection will stay away the COC
Link

No where to go but left.
1636. LargoFl
Quoting 1628. fmbill:


LOL! That run of the BAM shallow is a trip! Even if it did follow that path, Karen would be so sheered apart I dont think it would even be a "naked swirl", she would just be naked! :-)
lol time will tell what happens..me i sure hope its wrong, dont want this storm anywhere near me.
1637. Patrap
Quoting 1629. LargoFl:
Notice how many models bring karen up to a midrange Cat-1 Hurricane for a time....



Thats the 0600 UTC run,

here is the current one,12Z



1638. LargoFl
Quoting 1625. GeoffreyWPB:
is it at all possible the storm spilts into 2 pieces..creating yet another one?
YOU CAN DO IT KAREN at least make it a decent T-Storm so i can get my storm fix here in Pcola..Been through IVAN so I prefer no Hurricanes but a good tropical storm gets the adrenaline pumping..
1640. LargoFl
Quoting 1637. Patrap:



Thats the 0600 UTC run,

here is the current one,12Z



yeah each run they go up and down..models are so confused..as we are too lol
1641. guygee
I like the RAP site for today, the view is centered and all the frames get cached so you don't have to reload them every time. Here is the second visible frame. The shear is obviously stronger towards the north, and even though there is a burst of convection near the center, there is not much left except the SE quadrant for now.

Quoting 1631. IKE:



The High that is centered over the Carolina's is sinking toward the south. Karen's forward speed should begin to show signs of slowing
Quoting 1636. LargoFl:
lol time will tell what happens..me i sure hope its wrong, dont want this storm anywhere near me.
Comanche.Coster is close to you.
Quoting 1638. LargoFl:
is it at all possible the storm spilts into 2 pieces..creating yet another one?


No.
NWS said last night with Brian that there is a small window today as it moves north that the sheer will let up and if it stalls there than GFS had it right all along with its stronger storm prediction!!
Quoting 1638. LargoFl:
is it at all possible the storm spilts into 2 pieces..creating yet another one?
Yes,one for NOLA and the other to Tampa Bay.
1647. LargoFl
Quoting 1643. prcane4you:
Comanche.Coster is close to you.
get off my case PR
1648. Patrap
1649. LargoFl
Quoting 1647. LargoFl:
get off my case PR
I will.
1652. Patrap
Lets all be civil today,use yer controls for Pop up Trolls" & ignore.

Its sure to be a Huge page view day.

Lets all work the Storm..as all else is fools gold.

Nobody's fault but mine

Too bad for Shear, because she's really tryg to make an effort. It would be a whole different story if shear was weak.

The Gulf is a hot bathtub. Fine. We all know what happened with Rita and Katrina. And I know many of you are just salivating from the mouth hoping Karen can follow suit. But in reality it's all about the dry air and upper atmospheric conditions more so than the TCHP. Karen will likely never make hurricane status, and I know that will break hearts on here.
Quoting 1634. prcane4you:
Sheared system,so convection will stay away the COC


I've seen Tropical Storms similar to this where the sun was shining and the weather was rather nice (people having fun on the beach) where the center of circulation makes landfall.
While to the East of the center, the weather is nasty with heavy rain and wind.
Karen could be similar at landfall.
WOW 6Z GFS Ensemble look like hurricane wilma on one
Karen is a wake up call to the wishcasting that goes on not only in here but in life. Plus, a little aluminum and barium aeresol spraying from our fine government always keep these in check. They know what there are doing. Do you think they want another 130 billion dollar disaster? Hell no.
1658. K8eCane
Quoting 1655. Sfloridacat5:


I've seen Tropical Storms similar to this where the sun was shining and the weather was rather nice (people having fun on the beach) as the center of circulation makes landfall.
While to the East of the center, the weather is nasty with heavy rain and wind.
Karen could be similar at landfall.


here in coastal nc you name it, ive seen it. aint no fun in most of it
1660. LargoFl
1661. Torito
Well the one model on here is wrong, this thing is obviously not going south.... -.-


So, what can the MS Gulf Coast expect from this sheared storm? The convection will be to its east. Are we even getting wind this weekend? I'm planning on going to Cruising the Coast and I just found out that Bayfest in Alabama is still scheduled. Anyone?
1663. Patrap
Karen is right at or very near 90 West.



That kicks in some Moves in NOLA and Below, Jefferson, Plauqemines, and a few other as well.
Typhoon Fitow



Currently at 85kts (100mph).

Tropical Storm Danas



Currently at 35kts (40mph).
Quoting 1657. SheetUnion222Man:
Karen is a wake up call to the wishcasting that goes on not only in here but in life. Plus, a little aluminum and barium aeresol spraying from our fine government always keep these in check. They know what there are doing. Do you think they want another 130 billion dollar disaster? Hell no.


Or, you know, dry air and shear which Karen has struggled with since forming. But whatever, CONSPIRACY is much easier than science.
very interesting how it decoupled, you think its a dead. Then refires convection to hang on.
1667. Patrap


Quoting 1659. Patrap:


Sunrise and a peek under Karen's hood from NEXSAT/GOM Loop


I like that view Pat thanks.
Quoting 1607. mfcmom:
Just my humble opinion here, some of this sniping and making fun of others is not cool. Even if this storm fizzles, the fact is still there that any large amounts of rainfall in the panhandle can be so very dangerous right now as we are still recovering from being swamped with water all summer long and the ground is more than saturated. Please stop it. People could still be in danger. Thank you.


Well said! My yard is saturated from recent rains ahead of this storm. Some areas could be at risk for some dangerous flooding even if this system fizzles into a remnant low.
all I can say this AM - let's give a cheer for shear! There is obviously going to be some coastal erosion and flooding...never a good thing. But you never want to see one of these develop and do harm.
1671. MahFL
Looks like the shear let up a touch.

Yes the worse shear is now to Karens east.
1672. IKE
Convection closing in on COC.
1673. Patrap
<
O.K. Things are all over the map. One model shows it way over by New Iberia, Louisiana. Another has it making a complete hook over to Pensacola. Others split the difference and take it to MS or AL. And I have the same question. If most of the clouds and convection have been ripped off to the east, won't most of the rain be over that way as well?

And if anyone wants an adrenaline rush, please go do a bungee jump off a bridge. Don't care what area you live in, if anywhere from Gulfport, MS to Panama City, FL gets 6-8 inches of rain on top of what they already have had this year, the rush you get will be the water coming into your house. Those areas cannot take any more rain.
1675. fmbill
Quoting 1654. SheetUnion222Man:
The Gulf is a hot bathtub. Fine. We all know what happened with Rita and Katrina. And I know many of you are just salivating from the mouth hoping Karen can follow suit. But in reality it's all about the dry air and upper atmospheric conditions more so than the TCHP. Karen will likely never make hurricane status, and I know that will break hearts on here.


For me, it's not that I want to see Karen become a monster with destruction in its wake. I like following these storms because when everything lines up just right, they become amazing displays of the power and awesomeness of nature. When everything comes together it is a beautiful sight to behold. It's not a bad thing to stand in reverent awe. It keeps us humble, knowing there are some things that are way beyond us. (Kind of like enjoying a rainbow.)
1676. Patrap
This iz BAD mojo, a sucker set-up almost.

Like riding down a Razor Blade on a Ice cube kinda,

"What could go wrong"?




1677. barbamz

Karen (Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery). Source
Off to a meeting. In the meantime it looks like convection is building near the center and it doesn't look to be getting sheared off like before. I could be wrong but Karen could be regrouping this morning, I don't think she's going to fizzle like some think.
1679. MahFL
Quoting 1672. IKE:
Convection closing in on COC.


Hey IKE, Doomcon 4 now ?
1680. PTXer
Looks like there is some stuff getting ready to fire off on the North side.
It appears Karen is firing more convection over the coc now. Is shear dropping?
1682. LargoFl
Quoting 1674. LAsurvivor:
O.K. Things are all over the map. One model shows it way over by New Iberia, Louisiana. Another has it making a complete hook over to Pensacola. Others split the difference and take it to MS or AL. And I have the same question. If most of the clouds and convection have been ripped off to the east, won't most of the rain be over that way as well?

And if anyone wants an adrenaline rush, please go do a bungee jump off a bridge. Don't care what area you live in, if anywhere from Gulfport, MS to Panama City, FL gets 6-8 inches of rain on top of what they already have had this year, the rush you get will be the water coming into your house. Those areas cannot take any more rain.
yes i agree..models are all over the place..even NHC is guessing right now..they give the best advice possibe..stay alert and heed your LOCAL warnings
Quoting 1672. IKE:
Convection closing in on COC.


I noticed, nd I hope it doesn't decide to intensify in the last minute.
1684. Times2
The models are going to be right. She will make her right turn....clip the tip of the boot come ashore about right at the Miss/Ala border. It's pretty obvious and I don't see the point in worrying about intensity since that will be about right at 60-70 mph at landfall. It's all set folks and will be over pretty quick.
1685. MahFL
Strong convection is now west of lat 90.
1686. Patrap

Looks like Cindy 05 down there, sans the nekid-ness though.

; )






1687. MahFL
Quoting 1674. LAsurvivor:
O.K. Things are all over the map. One model shows it way over by New Iberia, Louisiana. Another has it making a complete hook over to Pensacola. Others split the difference and take it to MS or AL. And I have the same question. If most of the clouds and convection have been ripped off to the east, won't most of the rain be over that way as well?

And if anyone wants an adrenaline rush, please go do a bungee jump off a bridge. Don't care what area you live in, if anywhere from Gulfport, MS to Panama City, FL gets 6-8 inches of rain on top of what they already have had this year, the rush you get will be the water coming into your house. Those areas cannot take any more rain.


The GFS last run is very interesting. Instead of Karen curving to to the right, she now hooks to the right.
1689. LargoFl
Quoting 1662. CaneHunter031472:
So, what can the MS Gulf Coast expect from this sheared storm? The convection will be to its east. Are we even getting wind this weekend? I'm planning on going to Cruising the Coast and I just found out that Bayfest in Alabama is still scheduled. Anyone?
best guess is a rain event for that area with some sustained winds and higher gusts..but its all still up in the air right now..no positive answer can be given at this time.
My opinion now is that Karen will most like be a moderate TS at landfall, which will occur somewhere between the south-eastern NOLA peninsula and Pascagoula, AL. My gut feel says it will be pretty close to NOLA though.

Looking at the shear forecast, it appears there will only be a small window where shear will let up about 36 hours from now before shear kicks up again along the coast. Along with this, the steering currents have the storm heading on pretty much a northern route.

Given the dry air and Karen's current conditions, it just doesn't seem that there will be much of a chance to intensify over the next couple of days before landfall.
1691. MahFL
Some very dry air on the west side though.

1692. Patrap
New Orleans
NEXRAD Radar

Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile ° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

Quoting 1671. MahFL:
Looks like the shear let up a touch.

Yes the worse shear is now to Karens east.


I wonder if the shear forecast will pan out, or f it will be weaker than expected.
1694. LargoFl
Quoting 1688. Unconquered:


The GFS last run is very interesting. Instead of Karen curving to to the right, she now hooks to the right.
watching it closely for that to happen..october that happens alot.
1695. drs2008
Quoting 1683. CaneHunter031472:


I noticed, nd I hope it doesn't decide to intensify in the last minute.
a la Opal!
1696. MahFL
A big hook to the right would surprise a few people.
1697. LargoFl
Gem brings it into LA then northward..i dont think the front will allow that to happen....
Quoting 1690. Xyrus2000:
My opinion now is that Karen will most like be a moderate TS at landfall, which will occur somewhere between the south-eastern NOLA peninsula and Pascagoula, AL. My gut feel says it will be pretty close to NOLA though.

Looking at the shear forecast, it appears there will only be a small window where shear will let up about 36 hours from now before shear kicks up again along the coast. Along with this, the steering currents have the storm heading on pretty much a northern route.

Given the dry air and Karen's current conditions, it just doesn't seem that there will be much of a chance to intensify over the next couple of days before landfall.



Pascagoula is in MS
One thing about all those models they seem to have it visiting New Orleans before going somewhere else.
1700. LargoFl
Quoting 1691. MahFL:
Some very dry air on the west side though.

that dry air..IS that the front coming in?
MAYBE A SUPER STORM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST
Last few visible satellite images indicate that the COC has jogged to the east. COC now east of 90W. It was directly over 90W in her birthday suit but convection has now covered her.
1703. Patrap
Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Quoting 1688. Unconquered:


The GFS last run is very interesting. Instead of Karen curving to to the right, she now hooks to the right.


Well, I posted my opinion so the storm will do the complete opposite. :D
1705. Patrap
She sure gained a lot of latitude overnight.
Quoting 1700. LargoFl:
that dry air..IS that the front coming in?


I may be wrong Largo, but the front isn't supposed to make it's way through our area (S. La) until Late Saturday....
Quoting 1698. southernema:



Pascagoula is in MS


Oops. I should know better than to post without my coffee. :P
1708. Times2
Link

color enhancement pretty much says it all....sucking dry air...that will take the wind out of her and uh oh the front cometh
1710. LargoFl
Quoting 1706. hurricanehanna:


I may be wrong Largo, but the front isn't supposed to make it's way through our area (S. La) until Late Saturday....
ok thanks.
Remember when the season started and we were all making storm track comparisons to 2005 and saying how amazingly active this season was going to be?

lol.
Quoting 1710. LargoFl:
ok thanks.

I think it's just a lot of dry air out ahead of the front....
1713. LargoFl
well IF the GFS verifies..some Heavy sustained winds for My area as well and this is KTS not MPH
Quoting 1705. Patrap:
She sure gained a lot of latitude overnight.


She was moving close to 20MPH overnight but slowing of forward speed is anticipated. The water vapor imagery of Eastern United States illustrates to issue Karen will have moving Northward. The High pressure system centered over the Carolina's is digging all the way down to Florida Georgia border. She can't go North much longer the door is slamming shut to the west as the cold front approaches. Only one place to go.
Quoting 1702. Unconquered:
Last few visible satellite images indicate that the COC has jogged to the east. COC now east of 90W. It was directly over 90W in her birthday suit but convection has now covered her.


Center is still on the western edge of the convection west of 90W.

Be interesting to see the 12z GFS. If the GFS continues to show a hard right turn we could see an adjustment in the NHC official forecast.

But I'm not sold on the GFS forecast. But saying that, I trust the GFS over any other model.
Good shot of Karen

OK people, lower Plaquemines parish, the mouth of the Mississippi river(toe of the boot) is NOT New Orleans. Please look at a map before you post that "NOLA is getting hit in every model!!!!"
its the storm path keep going east maybe it will move up the east coast and go back in the warm water and be a big tropical storm or a big northeaster for the northeast!!!
Looks like Karen might be losing some westerly component and steering a more northerly heading now as convention begins to develop around the COC.
1722. 7544
Quoting 1694. LargoFl:
watching it closely for that to happen..october that happens alot.


morning i see that bam model still not givin in and now tries to turn her further south and som gfs essembles show it too . she did the split tho and convection heading east maybe thats what the bam was showing and could that convection head east over the sw fl to se fl or will it fizzle out
Quoting 1721. DellOperator:
Looks like Karen might be losing some westerly component and steering a more northerly heading now as convention begins to develop around the COC.


Lets hope you right
1724. mopapa
Okay, I have a really stupid question. I'm sure it's been asked and answered and y'all are tired of it, but... How do you know what the "center" of a storm is? To me the "center" would be the middle. Obviously not, though. Any info appreciated. Thanks.
Quoting 1716. MississippiWx:


Center is still on the western edge of the convection west of 90W.



Shadow playing eye tricks on me I guess.
1726. barbamz

May I repost this screenshot of the last recon visit into Karen from earlier? Might have been a little wobble to the Northeast at the last pass, but you never know. Next recon flight will tell us for sure.
1727. LargoFl
Quoting 1720. hurricanes2018:
its the storm path keep going east maybe it will move up the east coast and go back in the warm water and be a big tropical storm or a big northeaster for the northeast!!!
whever it does go..its rains are going to add to the fronts rains..rainy few day coming for the east coast states next week.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1729. LargoFl
Quoting 1727. LargoFl:
wherever it does go..its rains are going to add to the fronts rains..rainy few day coming for the east coast states next week.
1730. icmoore
Quoting 1717. Sfloridacat5:
Be interesting to see the 12z GFS. If the GFS continues to show a hard right turn we could see an adjustment in the NHC official forecast.

But I'm not sold on the GFS forecast. But saying that, I trust the GFS over any other model.


I gained a lot of trust in the GFS with Debby.
1731. Patrap
1732. pottery
Quoting mopapa:
Okay, I have a really stupid question. I'm sure it's been asked and answered and y'all are tired of it, but... How do you know what the "center" of a storm is? To me the "center" would be the middle. Obviously not, though. Any info appreciated. Thanks.

The ''center'' refers to the center of the Circulation (if there is one, and in this case there is).
The satelite images show the storm, and the true center of circulation is just to the right and partially under the cloud.

You can see it well, in post 1718.
1733. GatorWX
Quoting 1623. LargoFl:
now THIS is what I myself am watching out for..this being October..Notice the HUGE change in the Bams model track....


1735. guygee
Quoting 1657. SheetUnion222Man:
...aluminum and barium aeresol spraying...
If people would just stop recycling their aluminum cans and barium enemas we could foil these nefarious plots.

What is an "aeresol" anyways?
1736. IKE
Convection continuing to fire near/over the COC.
What would worse case scenerio be for New Orleans with storm surge if Karen goes just to the west before making that turn for the east?
The sun is rising and the visible loops are showing some building convection again near/over the coc where there was a naked swirl a few hours ago.

Like a roller coaster ride for the last 6 hours; it's going to boil down to relative sheer levels over the next two days as this system is very persistent.
An interesting scenario for Floridacasters to ponder is the one shown by BAMS. Notice how it actually has Karen moving farther west than any other model? This allows more time over water, waiting for the front to come and pick it up. This is reflected in the sharp W to WSW movement predicted by BAMS and some of the GFS ensembles. The timing works out such that if the storm stays further east, it will be more northerly by the time the front comes, sweeping Karen across the CONUS. The more west the system tracks, the farther south it will be when it begins to interact with the front. This could cause a landfall along the west coast of Florida (very unlikely, as shear would have to let up a good deal for the storm to strengthen enough to be pulled west).
I thought she was sheared to death last night BUT In the Gulf you never know.....loops starting to look a little less de-coupled now.
Its really going to come down to the interaction with that cold front and that is hard to predict....
Quoting 1565. Patrap:
Ahh, we have plenty of wunderground secret decoder rings for Winning your forecast.

Congratulations!!

Do you deliver or does one have to personaly pick it up?