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97L Growing More Organized in Western Caribbean

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:49 PM GMT on October 01, 2013

A tropical disturbance (Invest 97L) over the Western Caribbean is moving to the northwest at 10 mph and is generating heavy rains over Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Kingston, Jamaica picked up 2.60" of rain on Monday. Satellite loops show that 97L has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have increased in intensity and organization Tuesday morning. The broad area of spin associated with 97L is growing more defined, and the storm is taking advantage of wind shear that has fallen to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, as well as an upper-air anticyclone that has set up over the storm, providing good ventilation aloft. Dry air covers the Northwest Caribbean, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is slowing development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F). A hurricane hunter flight scheduled for Tuesday afternoon was cancelled due to 97L's lack of organization, and has been rescheduled for Wednesday.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 97L.

Forecast for 97L: development into at least a tropical depression likely
WInd shear is expected to remain low to moderate through Friday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. The lack of wind shear on Tuesday and Wednesday should allow 97L to moisten the atmosphere and wall off the dry air to its northwest that is slowing down development, and I expect 97L will be close to tropical depression status by Wednesday morning. By Wednesday night, 97L will cross the northeastern tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, bringing 4 - 8" of rain to the peninsula and to Western Cuba. Passage over the Yucatan will act to disrupt the storm. The atmosphere will grow drier and wind shear will increase as 97L moves northwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday, and these combined effects will likely retard development. A trough of low pressure and an associated cold front will be moving through Louisiana on Saturday, and the associated upper-level westerly winds will be able to turn 97L more to the northeast as it approaches the coast on Friday. The GFS model predicts landfall will occur along the Florida Panhandle, while the European model is farther west, taking the storm over Eastern Louisiana. Neither model shows 97L developing tropical storm-force winds. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 30%, and 5-day odds of 50%. I give a 40% chance 97L will be Tropical Storm Karen with top winds of 40 - 60 mph at landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Friday night, a 10% chance it will be stronger, and a 50% chance it will be a tropical depression or mere tropical disturbance.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Jerry, taken at 10:30 am EDT on October 1, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Jerry in the Central Atlantic no threat
Tropical Storm Jerry formed on Monday in the Central Atlantic, far from land. Jerry is the tenth named storm of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, and arrived twenty days before the usual appearance of the season's tenth named storm, which is October 19. Jerry is not a threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JERRY ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
1100 PM AST TUE OCT 01 2013

...JERRY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 43.7W
ABOUT 1290 MI...2075 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1180 MI...1900 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
Quoting 999. Pallis:
Who is taking who hostage? 65% of the country is against a single bill being passed, and only 19 on the hill are standing against this unconstitutional travesty with support of the majority? How can one bill stop a country? The bill did not. The radars still work without much ado. It is the purposeful pulling of the plug which interfaces with the computer. It is the executive branch overreaching it's powers and trying to influence the weak minded.Psy ops.

false
TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
1100 PM AST TUE OCT 01 2013

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH JERRY HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE
AND ORGANIZATION ONCE AGAIN...WITH RECENT SATELLITE DATA ONLY
SHOWING A SMALL BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. A TIMELY 2356 UTC ASCAT OVERPASS
SUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED SINCE THIS MORNING
AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY LOWERED TO 35 KT.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE
DAYS WHILE JERRY REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. AFTER THAT TIME...JERRY WILL BE MOVING OVER GRADUALLY
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO AN AREA OF STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE WEAKENING AND
DEGENERATION TO A REMNANT LOW BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN
ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS THAT THE SMALL CYCLONE COULD SUCCUMB TO THE
SHEAR AND DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED BELOW.

AFTER REMAINING STATIONARY FOR MOST OF THE DAY...IT APPEARS THAT
JERRY HAS DRIFTED WESTWARD THIS EVENING. JERRY IS FORECAST TO
MOVE A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE.
AFTER THAT TIME...JERRY SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN
ACCELERATE IN THE MID-LATITUDE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD SPEED OF JERRY IN A FEW
DAYS. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ONE...BUT REMAINS SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...
OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE SLOWER ECMWF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 28.1N 43.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 28.6N 43.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 29.5N 43.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 30.6N 42.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 31.8N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 34.0N 34.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 37.0N 29.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 41.0N 23.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
97L Not looking that promising anymore.



Although I'm interested in seeing Jerry tomorrow morning just after D-Max
Quoting 999. Pallis:
Who is taking who hostage? 65% of the country is against a single bill being passed, and only 19 on the hill are standing against this unconstitutional travesty with support of the majority? How can one bill stop a country? The bill did not. The radars still work without much ado. It is the purposeful pulling of the plug which interfaces with the computer. It is the executive branch overreaching it's powers and trying to influence the weak minded.

Well stated! Simply put, we are facing a tyranny in the making!
Meanwhile , in Lakeland its 78 *, partly cloudy with occasional thunder storms tomorrow.
Quoting 984. VR46L:


LMAO

Yep anyone can be whoever they want to be on the internet... Actually I am a retired Catwalk Model , worked in Milan , Paris and London ... I am 5 FT 10 and Blonde ;)



I'm batman...... :)
1007. hydrus
Quoting 988. kmanislander:
You all have a good evening. 97L not worth blogging about tonight.
well sure it is..If ya like talkin about rainshowers.
Quoting 1005. seer2012:

Well stated! Simply put, we are facing a tyranny in the making!
Meanwhile , in Lakeland its 78 *, partly cloudy with occasional thunder storms tomorrow.


Obama is not a tyrant...
Quoting 1004. FunnelVortex:
97L Not looking that promising anymore.



Although I'm interested in seeing Jerry tomorrow morning just after D-Max

As long as its firing convection in a concentrated area, I'm still watching closely. The worst it could do is lose convection, like we saw with pre-Gabrielle and 95L I believe.

This thing isn't just going to go poof like 95L. It is pretty certain that some sort of system: whether it be a tropical disturbance or a tropical storm, is going to impact the GOMEX.
Quoting 1004. FunnelVortex:
97L Not looking that promising anymore.



Although I'm interested in seeing Jerry tomorrow morning just after D-Max
It must be a matter of perception, but it is definitely holding its own and on track to slowly develop. The TCHP should help give it some bursts of convection. Also, the dry air over the Yucatan looks like it is continuing to slide off towards the West in tandem with 97L. Still think we will get a TS from this when it is all said and done.
Quoting 999. Pallis:
Who is taking who hostage? 65% of the country is against a single bill being passed, and only 19 on the hill are standing against this unconstitutional travesty with support of the majority? How can one bill stop a country? The bill did not. The radars still work without much ado. It is the purposeful pulling of the plug which interfaces with the computer. It is the executive branch overreaching it's powers and trying to influence the weak minded.Psy ops.


The executive branch has no control over this.
1012. VR46L
Quoting 1004. FunnelVortex:
97L Not looking that promising anymore.



Although I'm interested in seeing Jerry tomorrow morning just after D-Max


Hmmm I guess will have to see how it is in 8 hrs ... but right now can't see the fuss

1013. SLU
A TIMELY 2356 UTC ASCAT OVERPASS SUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED SINCE THIS MORNING
AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY LOWERED TO 35 KT.


Quoting 996. Dakster:
GT - Its about to be nasty few days for those of us in South FLA.


Yes, it is, we can only hope the runaway MLC doesn't strengthen on its way to you... since it's headed due N... and can draw moisture from both your coasts once it does landfall.
Quoting 998. sdswwwe:


Yeah looks like an LLC is trying to form there. Where can I find a map for the 925mb vort?


Here is a link loop it and you will see the vort weaken and it shifted E and now stacked with E part of 850mb and the center of 700mb 500mb

Link
Quoting 1010. GTstormChaserCaleb:
It must be a matter of perception, but it is definitely holding its own and on track to slowly develop. The TCHP should help give it some bursts of convection. Also, the dry air over the Yucatan looks like it is continuing to slide off towards the West in tandem with 97L. Still think we will get a TS from this when it is all said and done.


I'm still calling for a moderate "shrimp" TS. But it may take longer to develop now. We will have to see after DMAX
Quoting 1009. opal92nwf:

As long as its firing convection in a concentrated area, I'm still watching closely. The worst it could do is lose convection, like we saw with pre-Gabrielle and 95L I believe.

This thing isn't just going to go poof like 95L. It is pretty certain that some sort of system: whether it be a tropical disturbance or a tropical storm, is going to impact the GOMEX.


Don't remind me of 95L....
1018. sdswwwe
Quoting 1015. wunderkidcayman:


Here is a link loop it and you will see the vort weaken and it shifted E and now stacked with E part of 850mb and the center of 700mb 500mb

Link


Thanks. If it can get stacked, we may finally see something happening but I'm guessing it would still take over 48 hours to get organized to a minimal td.
1019. Pallis
Quoting 994. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Moisture starting to stream north across South FL. and the Southeastern GOM.

Scott was right about the dry air getting pushed aside. I noticed the regular low level clouds forming here today and scooting off. There is no way you can have that much heat over land with a sea breeze to not have it go somewhere. Last night the low ones went west, the middle ones went north and hit an invisible block to the north and stopping, and the higher ones were going south.Amazing sunset, but without the regular storms I could see the layers that the full sunlight would shield.
1020. Dakster
Quoting 1014. redwagon:


Yes, it is, we can only hope the runaway MLC doesn't strengthen on its way to you... since it's headed due N... and can draw moisture from both your coasts once it does landfall.


And that is always a fun day in the making...
Good night everybody. 'See' you on the flip side.
1022. VR46L
If accurate , thats alot of knots of shear 97L is facing

Quoting 1010. GTstormChaserCaleb:
It must be a matter of perception, but it is definitely holding its own and on track to slowly develop. The TCHP should help give it some bursts of convection. Also, the dry air over the Yucatan looks like it is continuing to slide off towards the West in tandem with 97L. Still think we will get a TS from this when it is all said and done.

And though this doesn't happen with every tropical system, it seems like 97L is starting to bring a bubble of moisture with it in which it is embedded well inside.
Quoting 1018. sdswwwe:


Thanks. If it can get stacked, we may finally see something happening but I'm guessing it would still take over 48 hours to get organized to a minimal td.

It will likely stack up on the E side
Quoting 1022. VR46L:
If accurate , thats alot of knots of shear 97L is facing



We've seen storms go up in that kind of shear before. It's when it hits 30 Kts where it gets hostile.
I know this has likely already been mentioned, but this is some very strong wording by the SPC for Friday's potential severe weather event. It's not very common for them to directly point out the potential for strong tornadoes in their Day 4-8 outlook.

DUE TO COOLING ALOFT WITH THIS STRONG SYSTEM...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE STEEP FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...PERHAPS NEAR 8.0 C/KM...ATOP A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN CLASSIC LOADED GUN PROFILES.
HODOGRAPHS WILL BE VERY LARGE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW TRACK...AND WILL
FAVOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING TORNADOES...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG...AND
VERY LARGE HAIL.
A FASTER MOVING FRONT OR EARLIER INITIATION COULD
LEAD TO MORE OF A LINEAR MODE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...BUT DETAILS SUCH
AS THESE HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY THIS FAR OUT.

Iowa, and surrounding states need to really pay attention to this potential severe weather/tornado outbreak.
Looks like my call will be right with 97L lol, everyone keeps saying OHHH wait for DMAX and then nothing. stormtrackerscott and wunderkidcayman how ya guys wishcasting doing lol
Haven't seen this picture of Floyd before: absolutely beautiful.
I don't get it. I just don't get it. Looking at overall tropical cyclone activity in the Northern Hemisphere this year has been quite a disappointment. Both the EPac and Atlantic have had low numbers of hurricanes relative to those basins' averages and not even a major hurricane has formed in either location. Normally when one basin is inactive, the other one is more active. Even the WPac has been below average, relatively speaking with few major typhoons. I don't think I have seen such low numbers in all three basins. Correct me if I am wrong, but this seems to be unprecedented. Anyone have any thoughts as to why this is happened? I am all ears :)
1027. SuperStorm093

I'm now officially done with your boasting, annoying comments. POOF!
Quoting 1027. SuperStorm093:
Looks like my call will be right with 97L lol, everyone keeps saying OHHH wait for DMAX and then nothing. stormtrackerscott and wunderkidcayman how ya guys wishcasting doing lol


Go to bed.... You have preschool tomorrow,
Quoting 1030. CitikatzSouthFL:
1027. SuperStorm093

I'm now officially done with your boasting, annoying comments. POOF!

I don't know should I put him on my ignore list
Quoting 1020. Dakster:


And that is always a fun day in the making...


Want me to write you a TWO? :( :\
Quoting 1031. FunnelVortex:


Go to bed.... You have preschool tomorrow,

Lol
Hurricane Karen, I mean Katrina, had lots of dry air to her northwest before she turned into a monster.

I wonder if we could we see a repeat of that effort?

The isotherm says, yeah.







Quoting 1035. OracleDeAtlantis:
Hurricane Karen, I mean Katrina, had lots of dry air to her northwest before she turned into a monster.

I wonder if we could we see a repeat of that effort?

The isotherm says, yeah.









*cough*Doomcasting*cough*
Use the 6.7 micron water vapor satellite to measure the temperature of the the last water vapor molecules. Dark means cooler and drier and light means warmer and more moisture.

1038. hydrus
Quoting 1026. Ameister12:
I know this has likely already been mentioned, but this is some very strong wording by the SPC for Friday's potential severe weather event. It's not very common for them to directly point out the potential for strong tornadoes in their Day 4-8 outlook.

DUE TO COOLING ALOFT WITH THIS STRONG SYSTEM...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE STEEP FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...PERHAPS NEAR 8.0 C/KM...ATOP A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN CLASSIC LOADED GUN PROFILES.
HODOGRAPHS WILL BE VERY LARGE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW TRACK...AND WILL
FAVOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING TORNADOES...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG...AND
VERY LARGE HAIL.
A FASTER MOVING FRONT OR EARLIER INITIATION COULD
LEAD TO MORE OF A LINEAR MODE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...BUT DETAILS SUCH
AS THESE HAVE LOW PREDICTABILITY THIS FAR OUT.

Iowa, and surrounding states need to really pay attention to this potential severe weather/tornado outbreak.
I have seen some strange jet patterns, but I mean really...
Quoting 1035. OracleDeAtlantis:
Hurricane Karen, I mean Katrina, had lots of dry air to her northwest before she turned into a monster.

I wonder if we could we see a repeat of that effort?

The isotherm says, yeah.











We're done talking future tense.
Quoting 1031. FunnelVortex:


Go to bed.... You have preschool tomorrow,
Wow, that was a poor attempt at a comeback, at least have it be original, and wunderkidcayman, you have the word kid in your name, enough said there lmao.
Quoting 1029. lobdelse81:
I don't get it. I just don't get it. Looking at overall tropical cyclone activity in the Northern Hemisphere this year has been quite a disappointment. Both the EPac and Atlantic have had low numbers of hurricanes relative to those basins' averages and not even a major hurricane has formed in either location. Normally when one basin is inactive, the other one is more active. Even the WPac has been below average, relatively speaking with few major typhoons. I don't think I have seen such low numbers in all three basins. Correct me if I am wrong, but this seems to be unprecedented. Anyone have any thoughts as to why this is happened? I am all ears :)


No one really knows for sure why, but it isn't exactly without precedent.

1977 Atlantic hurricane season

Quoting 1008. FunnelVortex:


Obama is not a tyrant...
Quoting 1019. Pallis:
Scott was right about the dry air getting pushed aside. I noticed the regular low level clouds forming here today and scooting off. There is no way you can have that much heat over land with a sea breeze to not have it go somewhere. Last night the low ones went west, the middle ones went north and hit an invisible block to the north and stopping, and the higher ones were going south.Amazing sunset, but without the regular storms I could see the layers that the full sunlight would shield.


Tonight at pier.
Let's see if this GFS run has right bias.
1043. beell
Quoting 899. LAbonbon:


Why shift to the SW?


To make a long story short, that appears to be where the best "modeled" ingredients come together at peak heating. SE Nebraska/NW Missouri/SW Iowa. The current risk area may be a bit too far north with the warm front at that time. The highest potential should be along the warm front near the surface low just to the west.

That 4 day risk outlook was issued very early this morning-so it's almost out-of-date. The next opportunity for the SPC to update will be with the Day 3 which will be issued very early Wednesday morning. I guess will see if it shifts.

Stepped out for a bit LAbb-sorry I'm late.
initialization.
We are gonna have some nice torrential rains and wind in S/SW Fl soon.... I won't gloat too much about being right about Northerly track.... Just glad for some stormy weather, makes me feel so blissed out. Can't wait to see if 97L pulls it together in the am.


Maybe a F1, twister in Aguada PR.... today...

36 hrs.

Quoting 1024. wunderkidcayman:

It will likely stack up on the E side


No it won't you can see the storms are working their way west towards the LLC now.

97L looks ok to me at the moment, blowing convection right over the center around 17.5/83.5.
.
I'm not expecting a storm that goes down in history here, but I wouldn't downcast this one. I do think the storm will at least over-achieve beyond current NHC forecasts. mid to high end TS perhaps. jmo
1050. sar2401
Quoting wxgeek723:


No one really knows for sure why, but it isn't exactly without precedent.

1977 Atlantic hurricane season


We know, in pretty good detail, of about 70 hurricane seasons. With less detail, we know about 150 seasons. With a lot of sketchy details, maybe 200. There have been hurricane seasons for at least 10,000 years. Thar means we have some knowledge of .02% of all hurricane seasons. With that kind of sample size, you can bet we've only seen a small bit of what hurricane seasons can be like, be they almost non-existent to unlike anything white men have see in the Western Hemisphere in terms of fantastically huge seasons. We seem to think we actually know all about tropical storms when nothing could be further from the truth.
Let's see how strong it gets now. Seems as though the GFS is now sold on development as I am as well.

Quoting 1050. sar2401:

We know, in pretty good detail, of about 70 hurricane seasons. With less detail, we know about 150 seasons. With a lot of sketchy details, maybe 200. There have been hurricane seasons for at least 10,000 years. Thar means we have some knowledge of .02% of all hurricane seasons. With that kind of sample size, you can bet we've only seen a small bit of what hurricane seasons can be like, be they almost non-existent to unlike anything white men have see in the Western Hemisphere in terms of fantastically huge seasons. We seem to think we actually know all about tropical storms when nothing could be further from the truth.


A lot more than that...
Quoting 1040. SuperStorm093:
Wow, that was a poor attempt at a comeback, at least have it be original, and wunderkidcayman, you have the word kid in your name, enough said there lmao.

Did that to make me feel young again that's all
Quoting 1049. CosmicEvents:
97L looks ok to me at the moment, blowing convection right over the center around 17.5/83.5.
.
I'm not expecting a storm that goes down in history here, but I wouldn't downcast this one. I do think the storm will at least over-achieve beyond current NHC forecasts. mid to high end TS perhaps. jmo


I know my opinion is not popular, but I don't give a crap what any of the intensity models say at all. Look how wrong the LGEM was with Jerry, for example, showing it becoming a hurricane when we actually have a steadily decaying tropical storm.

I don't see this getting stronger than 60 mph right now, but that's still higher than the guidance.
Somewhat exagerated? But some truth in here....

Fukushima could be 15,000 times worse than Hiroshima with removal of fuel rods
Posted on October 1, 2013

October 1, 2013 – JAPAN - A Yale Professor is compelling the world to wake up from its nuclear slumber and face some cold-hard facts, “All of humanity will be threatened for thousands of years” if the Fukushima Unit 4 pool can’t be kept cool. Your worries about eating cesium-contaminated fish from the Pacific Ocean are grounded in fact, but this is a world-wide disaster of the most epic proportions just waiting to happen. If nothing else, it points to the necessity of nuclear-free power to fuel the planet, but in the meantime, more than 1,535 fuel rods must be meticulously removed from Unit 4, which in all likelihood is crumbling. Charles Perrow, Professor Emeritus of Sociology from Yale University cautions: “Conditions in the unit 4 pool, 100 feet from the ground, are perilous, and if any two of the rods touch it could cause a nuclear reaction that would be uncontrollable. The radiation emitted from all these rods, if they are not continually cool and kept separate, would require the evacuation of surrounding areas including Tokyo. Because of the radiation at the site the 6,375 rods in the common storage pool could not be continuously cooled; they would fission and all of humanity will be threatened, for thousands of years.” In early stages of the Fukushima disaster Tepco, under influence of the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency (NISA), tried to keep the full ramifications of Fukushima under wraps, and now the entire country faces a possible trillion dollar price tag and multiple decades of active clean up to make this go away, but that will all be a moot point if the fuel rods aren’t removed properly. All the boron between spent fuel rods has disintegrated.
This means a nuclear chain reaction could ensue if the rods get too close together in the pools, causing nuclear mayhem like we’ve never endured. In less than two months, Tepco plans to try to remove these rods, admitting that they haven’t the expertise or resources to do it perfectly – and that is what it would take – absolute perfection. According to globalreasearch.ca, “Some 400 tons of fuel in that pool could spew out more than 15,000 times as much radiation as was released at Hiroshima. More than 6,000 fuel assemblies now sit in a common pool just 50 meters from Unit Four. Some contain plutonium. The pool has no containment over it. It’s vulnerable to loss of coolant, the collapse of a nearby building, another earthquake, another tsunami and more.” Overall, more than 11,000 fuel assemblies are scattered around the Fukushima site. According to long-time expert and former Department of Energy official Robert Alvarez, there is more than 85 times as much lethal cesium on site as was released at Chernobyl.” This is no time for Tepco or the Japanese government to try to save face, or the world to turn the other cheek. If we don’t treat this as a global disaster it would be like waiting for the Russians to start nuclear war back in the 1980s – or worse. Harvey Wasserman has created a petition at NukeFree.org to alert our own president and other politicians about the extreme seriousness of this incident. All while they were planning to go to war with Syria, the nuclear disaster right under our noses was escalating to unfathomable proportions. Not to sound doom and gloom, but it’s important to recognize the ramifications if this issue isn’t taken care of – properly. –Prison Planet
New data show vort on W side is weakening and vort in E side is increasing
Quoting 1050. sar2401:

We know, in pretty good detail, of about 70 hurricane seasons. With less detail, we know about 150 seasons. With a lot of sketchy details, maybe 200. There have been hurricane seasons for at least 10,000 years. Thar means we have some knowledge of .02% of all hurricane seasons. With that kind of sample size, you can bet we've only seen a small bit of what hurricane seasons can be like, be they almost non-existent to unlike anything white men have see in the Western Hemisphere in terms of fantastically huge seasons. We seem to think we actually know all about tropical storms when nothing could be further from the truth.
Have to also remember a lot has gone on with plate tectonics during that time, so landmasses have shifted around and oceans have shrunk or gained size, so what may be hurricanes affecting the Lesser Antilles now might have been an even larger landmass before and quite possibly South America. This is just talking from the Atlantic perspective.
Quoting 1056. wunderkidcayman:
New data show vort on W side is weakening and vort in E side is increasing


What data?
Triple 9s.


Reuters: Strengthening storm headed near Fukushima — Typhoon Warning Center: Well-defined low-level circulation center… Deep convection is building

Published: October 1st, 2013 at 9:21 am ET

Reuters, Oct. 1, 2013: [... Tepco] faces the prospect of more heavy rain in the next few days as another storm approaches Japan from the south. Tropical Depression Sepat is forecast to gain strength overnight and arrive in the vicinity of Fukushima by 1200 GMT on Wednesday, the U.S. Navy Joint Typhoon Warning Centre said. [...]

Tropical Storm Sepat – Prognostic Reasoning, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Oct. 1, 2013: [...] Has Tracked Northward At 12 Knots Over The Past Six Hours. Animated Multispectral Satellite Imagery Shows a Partially-exposed And Well-defined Low-level Circulation Center [...] Convection Beginning To Build And Wrap Along The Northern Semi-circle. A 010516z Ssmi Microwave Image Shows The Increase In Convective Organization As The Deep Convection Is Building Along The Northern Peripheries. [...] Initial Intensity Has Been Increased To 35 Knots [65 kilometers per hour] Based On A 010216z Oscat Pass And The Increasing Convection, [...] Upper-level Analysis Indicates Poleward Outflow Is Beginning To Increase Ahead Of A Digging Trough Over Japan [...]
Quoting 1056. wunderkidcayman:
New data show vort on W side is weakening and vort in E side is increasing
What data? the blow up of convection IS where the lowest pressure is at the surface.
Quoting 1053. wunderkidcayman:

Did that to make me feel young again that's all
.
Has the shape, may not be a sheared mess of a tropical storm and more like an actual tropical storm if you know what I mean.

Quoting 1048. VAbeachhurricanes:


No it won't you can see the storms are working their way west towards the LLC now.



Many have not internalized that 97L has split, curiously some FL folks who are about to get smacked with the first rainband of the split-off MLC in a couple hours.
Quoting 1061. Abacosurf:
What data? the blow up of convection IS where the lowest pressure is at the surface.


Probably exclusive stuff from the Cayman National Weather service, where he works. Eyes only... you know the drill.
Still triple 9s.

Quoting 1063. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Has the shape, may not be a sheared mess of a tropical storm and more like an actual tropical storm if you know what I mean.



I see something there east of the islands.
Heavy wind and rain here. Powerful squall moving through. Trees swaying hard.
Quoting 1046. sunlinepr:


Maybe a F1, twister in Aguada PR.... today...



I can't believe that mountainous PR can get tornados
Quoting 1065. VAbeachhurricanes:


Probably exclusive stuff from the Cayman National Weather service, where he works. Eyes only... you know the drill.
lol
This is the only proof I need.

1071. sar2401
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Hurricane Karen, I mean Katrina, had lots of dry air to her northwest before she turned into a monster.

I wonder if we could we see a repeat of that effort?

The isotherm says, yeah.








Nothing else says yeah. There is zero chance that 97L will become Katrina. I realize it's been a while since we had a big storm, but this kind of prediction is absurd.
Quoting 1069. CaribBoy:


I can't believe that mountainous PR can get tornados

Very strange to watch that tornado in that area called monte Atalaya...

1074. Drakoen
Rut-roh! Slowly getting better organized with thunderstorms becoming more concentrated around the center. The upper level outflow is expanding to the north.


I WANT MY TRIPLE 9!!!!!!!!!!
Looks to me like a spark has been ignited.
1077. sar2401
Quoting GrandCaymanMed:
Heavy wind and rain here. Powerful squall moving through. Trees swaying hard.

Yeah, tropical thunderstorms do that kind of thing.
Very strong winds right now here in grand cayman on the NW coast and raining
Quoting 1078. wunderkidcayman:
Very strong winds right now here in grand cayman on the NW coast and raining


Do you have a weather station to see how strong the winds are?
1080. sar2401
Quoting Drakoen:
Rut-roh! Slowly getting better organized with thunderstorms becoming more concentrated around the center. The upper level outflow is expanding to the north.



Still looks like a disorganized mess to me. I see no signs of low level circulation at all.
Things might get pretty nasty up in the Panhandle this weekend.

1082. FOREX
Quoting 1059. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Triple 9s.



Don't see it there in three days. Way too fast. you think?
1083. sar2401
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Do you have a weather station to see how strong the winds are?

One would certainly think so, being part of the Cayman Met Service.
Quoting 982. billsfaninsofla:
So exactly what are the duties of the non-essential employees? Seems to be a lot of them?


You're asking for quite a list. But basically non-essential employees are ones that aren't required to be at work to prevent danger, (significant) disruption, destruction, and death.

Non-essentials get furloughed, which means they are still technically employed but they are not allowed to work. Not just that they're not allowed to go to work, they actually are not allowed to do any work. At all. Even if they want to do it on their free time.

Essential personnel still have to go to work because of the nature of their jobs. However, that doesn't necessarily mean they're still getting paid. Usually after congress gets it's damn act together and things restart they get back pay, but there is no guarantee.

It's not just government employees, it's also contractors. If you have a government contract and they get hit, you get hit. So where I work, there are more than a few people who are furloughed as well since their contracts received a stop work order from the government.

So basically, the self-serving idiots in congress throwing tantrums and acting like spoiled brats over some idealistic nonsense is screwing over a lot of people, while simultaneously making our entire country look like a miserable excuse for a joke.

However, I will say this. It's amazing how fast someone's political loyalties change when you take away their job. :P
Comes in @ 998mb with heavy precipitation to the northeast.

The upper-level pattern forecast by the GFS today is a lot different than it was two days ago. Models are coming back on-board with development. As discussed previously though, dry air will remain an issue regardless of shear. I wouldn't expect anything stronger than a moderate tropical storm, but hey, I've been wrong before. :)

1086. sar2401
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Things might get pretty nasty up in the Panhandle this weekend.


The 12th prediction of "things getting pretty nasty in the Panhandle this weekend" So far, we've gotten rain, and I suspect that's what we'll get again. I hope it makes it to SE Alabama, since things are getting pretty dry here.
Quoting 1082. FOREX:


Don't see it there in three days. Way too fast. you think?

Looks fine to me. It's in agreement with the other global models.

All of them bring it ashore in approximately 96 hours.
1088. sar2401
Quoting Xyrus2000:


However, I will say this. It's amazing how fast someone's political loyalties change when you take away their job. :P

You mean there are people who now realize Harry Reid is a jerk? Him and the Senate had a nice long weekend off...except they got paid.
Other views of Floyd....


Visual comparison of Hurricane Floyd and Hurricane Andrew`. The two storms are at similar positions and nearly identical intensities (933 mbar), but Hurricane Floyd is remarkably larger.
1090. FOREX
Quoting 1085. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Comes in @ 998mb with heavy precipitation to the northeast.

The upper-level pattern forecast by the GFS today is a lot different than it was two days ago. Models are coming back on-board with development. As discussed previously though, dry air will remain an issue regardless of shear. I wouldn't expect anything stronger than a moderate tropical storm, but hey, I've been wrong before. :)



Too fast it seems. 3 1/2 days to move all that way? Don't see it.
Quoting 1085. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Comes in @ 998mb with heavy precipitation to the northeast.

The upper-level pattern forecast by the GFS today is a lot different than it was two days ago. Models are coming back on-board with development. As discussed previously though, dry air will remain an issue regardless of shear. I wouldn't expect anything stronger than a moderate tropical storm, but hey, I've been wrong before. :)

Looks like GFS also hinting at a strengthrning storm closer to landfall. 2-3 days ago it was weakening near landfall.
Also moving rather slow once it gets near coast. Could be a real drencher.
The Caymans should have a nice squally night and likely tomorrow as well. Nothing too bad. 35-40 gusts, maybe a rogue 45. 2-3 inches of rain. Enjoy!
There is a center at 17.5/83.5 moving nw around 310 next 2 days. We should have recon in their tomorrow PM.
Thanks. You are right on!!! Well guys, it looks like 1977 was a year that was quite similar to this year in the Northern Hemisphere regarding tropical cyclone activity. All three basins were below average (EPac the slowest season ever)with anemic numbers of hurricanes. The Atlantic surprise that year was category 5 Hurricane Anita. Which I guess is proof that even in a slow garbage season, a monster could still pop out of the hat.
Quoting 1041. wxgeek723:


No one really knows for sure why, but it isn't exactly without precedent.

1977 Atlantic hurricane season

That data about the center reformation to the east come in yet?
1096. aquak9
Quoting 1092. CosmicEvents:
The Caymans should have a nice squally night and likely tomorrow as well. Nothing too bad. 35-40 gusts, maybe a rogue 45. 2-3 inches of rain. Enjoy!
There is a center at 17.5/83.5 moving nw around 310 next 2 days. We should have recoon in their tomorrow PM.


fixed it for ya -

heh heh heh
Quoting 1079. Tropicsweatherpr:


Do you have a weather station to see how strong the winds are?

Yes of course however it's not online
Wind are running between 25MPH and 30MPH gust up to 33MPH

With all the stations on island highest winds was up to 40MPH that's on the SW coast
34MPH on the SE coast
Those high winds were sustained with even high gust
Currently wind did decrease very slightly though

Quoting 1096. aquak9:


fixed it for ya -

heh heh heh
no problem. It'll just cost you a plus.....2 plusses if you want my long-term full fledged fake blog met track.
Quoting 1089. sunlinepr:
Other views of Floyd....

I was in the eye of Floyd for 2 hours and 20 minutes not too long after that photo was captured.. Crazy how slow and long the storm lasted.
1101. sar2401
Quoting sunlinepr:
Somewhat exagerated? But some truth in here....

Fukushima could be 15,000 times worse than Hiroshima with removal of fuel rods
Posted on October 1, 2013

October 1, 2013 – JAPAN - A Yale Professor is compelling the world to wake up from its nuclear slumber and face some cold-hard facts, “All of humanity will be threatened for thousands of years” if the Fukushima Unit 4 pool can’t be kept cool. Your worries about eating cesium-contaminated fish from the Pacific Ocean are grounded in fact, but this is a world-wide disaster of the most epic proportions just waiting to happen. If nothing else, it points to the necessity of nuclear-free power to fuel the planet, but in the meantime, more than 1,535 fuel rods must be meticulously removed from Unit 4, which in all likelihood is crumbling. Charles Perrow, Professor Emeritus of Sociology from Yale University cautions: “Conditions in the unit 4 pool, 100 feet from the ground, are perilous, and if any two of the rods touch it could cause a nuclear reaction that would be uncontrollable. The radiation emitted from all these rods, if they are not continually cool and kept separate, would require the evacuation of surrounding areas including Tokyo. Because of the radiation at the site the 6,375 rods in the common storage pool could not be continuously cooled; they would fission and all of humanity will be threatened, for thousands of years.” In early stages of the Fukushima disaster Tepco, under influence of the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency (NISA), tried to keep the full ramifications of Fukushima under wraps, and now the entire country faces a possible trillion dollar price tag and multiple decades of active clean up to make this go away, but that will all be a moot point if the fuel rods aren’t removed properly. All the boron between spent fuel rods has disintegrated.
This means a nuclear chain reaction could ensue if the rods get too close together in the pools, causing nuclear mayhem like we’ve never endured. In less than two months, Tepco plans to try to remove these rods, admitting that they haven’t the expertise or resources to do it perfectly – and that is what it would take – absolute perfection. According to globalreasearch.ca, “Some 400 tons of fuel in that pool could spew out more than 15,000 times as much radiation as was released at Hiroshima. More than 6,000 fuel assemblies now sit in a common pool just 50 meters from Unit Four. Some contain plutonium. The pool has no containment over it. It’s vulnerable to loss of coolant, the collapse of a nearby building, another earthquake, another tsunami and more.” Overall, more than 11,000 fuel assemblies are scattered around the Fukushima site. According to long-time expert and former Department of Energy official Robert Alvarez, there is more than 85 times as much lethal cesium on site as was released at Chernobyl.” This is no time for Tepco or the Japanese government to try to save face, or the world to turn the other cheek. If we don’t treat this as a global disaster it would be like waiting for the Russians to start nuclear war back in the 1980s – or worse. Harvey Wasserman has created a petition at NukeFree.org to alert our own president and other politicians about the extreme seriousness of this incident. All while they were planning to go to war with Syria, the nuclear disaster right under our noses was escalating to unfathomable proportions. Not to sound doom and gloom, but it’s important to recognize the ramifications if this issue isn’t taken care of – properly. –Prison Planet

Professor emeritus of Sociology? I had no idea nuclear physics were being taught back when he was a sociology graduate student...to sociology graduate students. But at least the article is not trying to predict doom and gloom.

Geez....
I see a LLC being either near 17.5N 81.5W or 17.5N 82.3W moving slowly NW
1103. flsky
Both frightening.
Quoting 1089. sunlinepr:
Other views of Floyd....


Visual comparison of Hurricane Floyd and Hurricane Andrew`. The two storms are at similar positions and nearly identical intensities (933 mbar), but Hurricane Floyd is remarkably larger.
1104. SLU
One-punch-you're-out.

1105. sar2401
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Yes of course however it's not online
Wind are running between 25MPH and 30MPH gust up to 33MPH

With all the stations on island highest winds was up to 40MPH that's on the SW coast
34MPH on the SE coast

Robert Owens reports winds of 13 mph with a gust of 26 mph, and .16" of rain. Sounds like a rough night in the Caymans.
I think it was during Andrea that I heard someone from Tallahassee say they haven't gotten hit in so long.

Quoting 1100. Abacosurf:
I was in the eye of Floyd for 2 hours and 20 minutes not too long after that photo was captured.. Crazy how slow and long the storm lasted.


What a well defined eye it had.....

1108. sar2401
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I see a LLC being either near 17.5N 81.5W or 17.5N 82.3W moving slowly NW

So what's your 0200 prediction, WKC. By the sound of things, should be at least a TD by then...or a 40/70. Want to bet on which one?
Caleb, have to dis-agree with your statement (in post # 1057) that plate tectonics have shifted around land masses in the last 10,000 years. Their has not been that much movement in that time. 10,000 years is but a "blip" in geologic time. The continents have hardly moved in the last 10,000 years. You have to go back millions of years to see any difference in their relative locations.
Quoting 1105. sar2401:

Robert Owens reports winds of 13 mph with a gust of 26 mph, and .16" of rain. Sounds like a rough night in the Caymans.

For some reason Owen Robert International Airport always seem to get the quite bit compared to the rest of the islands
Track...just a wag, but i'll go with landfall between Cedar Key and the armpit area or Florida, tracking across Live Oak(where someone(Ike) dropped the magnet 2 years ago), exiting around St. Simon's Island...then riding up the east coast or just inland.
Quoting 1088. sar2401:

You mean there are people who now realize Harry Reid is a jerk? Him and the Senate had a nice long weekend off...except they got paid.

Harry Reid is a jerk -and ineffectual- but he isn't the one who put a poison pill in what should be a straightforward, clean bill.
Quoting 1108. sar2401:

So what's your 0200 prediction, WKC. By the sound of things, should be at least a TD by then...or a 40/70. Want to bet on which one?

Well to tell you the truth the last 2 TWO was kinda surprising so kinda hard to say
no closed low, no TD. And I said a TD at best, so we will see, could be right could be wrong.
Quoting 1113. wunderkidcayman:

Well to tell you the truth the last 2 TWO was kinda surprising so kinda hard to say


What is the CNWS thinking?
We'll see what 97L will do. Might have to watch this one since so models got this one bee-lining for Asheville after landfall. Extremely heavy rain in short time in mountains = massive flooding in area.
Quoting 1117. LAbonbon:


This is a very cool weather station. Lots of information.
Quoting 1118. GTstormChaserCaleb:
This is a very cool weather station. Lots of information.


I remembered stormpetrol posting both of these earlier. I just scrolled back for them. I thought the same - everything at a glance.
1120. sar2401
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Has the shape, may not be a sheared mess of a tropical storm and more like an actual tropical storm if you know what I mean.


So, GT, a simulated picture of the IR temperature of something which hasn't formed and is at least 96 hours away is more impressive that 998 circle on a map? Give me that image, I'll Shop it, make it look like Katrina, and really scare the heck out of everybody. The only similarities will be they are both made up.
1121. sar2401
Quoting Birthmark:

Harry Reid is a jerk -and ineffectual- but he isn't the one who put a poison pill in what should be a straightforward, clean bill.

Poison to whom? The latest survey shows 1 out 8 Americans even knows that today was the first day to sign up for ObamaCare. The web site and phone system still collapsed. Imagine what would have happened if even 2 of 8 Americans knew about it. A one year delay to actually come up with a tested, working system sounds like a good idea to me.
Anyway guy I'm off be back in a few hrs maybe around 2/3am un less 97L changes drastically that it had to be noted
I'm gonna take 17.8N 82.2W
Quoting 1121. sar2401:

Poison to whom? The latest survey shows 1 out 8 Americans even knows that today was the first day to sign up for ObamaCare. The web site and phone system still collapsed. Imagine what would have happened if even 2 of 8 Americans knew about it. A one year delay to actually come up with a tested, working system sounds like a good idea to me.


I.am..sure.uninsured.people.would.love.to.wait.an other.
year,especially.if.they.have.sick.kids
A little something in the long run, nothing to get overly hyped about, but keep it in mind that the Western Caribbean will tend to be the hot spot later in the month and near the secondary peak.

Quoting 1104. SLU:
One-punch-you're-out.


Wow, how strong is that?
Quoting 1119. LAbonbon:


I remembered stormpetrol posting both of these earlier. I just scrolled back for them. I thought the same - everything at a glance.

All u had to do was just to type weatherincayman.com but there is other stations that is not on website too
Quoting 1121. sar2401:

Poison to whom? The latest survey shows 1 out 8 Americans even knows that today was the first day to sign up for ObamaCare. The web site and phone system still collapsed. Imagine what would have happened if even 2 of 8 Americans knew about it. A one year delay to actually come up with a tested, working system sounds like a good idea to me.

What is a good idea to you, in this case, is a political poison pill. Obamacare isn't going to be delayed a year; it's not going to be killed any time soon. The House has made its point. Now, it's time to do their job.

I'm not wild about that little message screen at NOAA.
The next hurricane event in the FL Panhandle is a disaster waiting to happen in the sense that the last hurricanes we had here were Ivan and Dennis. They both had the "category 3 label." However, Ivan was weakening at landfall and it's center went into AL. Dennis was weakening as well and didn't have significant winds much at all away from its tiny center.

The point of this is: unless people in the FL Panhandle were in the core of Dennis, or close enough to the AL border, the most winds they have experienced were Cat 1.

I have heard people here in the Ft. Walton Beach area say things like "we had 115 mph winds" during Ivan or "I had a 140 something mph gust" on my weather station.

Many people believe they have weathered a Cat. 3 hurricane with nary a scratch on their house, while in reality, they only experienced cat 1 conditions with some higher gusts.

So if we get a cat 2 or even a solid cat 1, people are going to be shell-shocked.

This short video of Wutip in Vietnam reminds me of why watching a storm through a screen is as close as I want to be.



Quoting 1127. wunderkidcayman:

All u had to do was just to type weatherincayman.com but there is other stations that is not on website too


Good to know. I was interested in the spike in winds right before 11 pm - this was on both the weather stations posted.
hmm? This is starting to look interesting.



Quoting 1125. GTstormChaserCaleb:
A little something in the long run, nothing to get overly hyped about, but keep it in mind that the Western Caribbean will tend to be the hot spot later in the month and near the secondary peak.



What's the point in even showing those? lol
(From Mike's Weather Page)

"Latest 00z GFS has Invest 97 as potential Karen this weekend affecting the Florida panhandle. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gf sfull/2013100200/gfsfull_pres_wind_watl_31.png"
Quoting 1125. GTstormChaserCaleb:
A little something in the long run, nothing to get overly hyped about, but keep it in mind that the Western Caribbean will tend to be the hot spot later in the month and near the secondary peak.

Honduras and Nicaragua have been pretty lucky this season.We are so dry we need the MJO before we enter the dry season in December.
1136. FOREX
Quoting 1134. opal92nwf:
(From Mike's Weather Page)

"Latest 00z GFS has Invest 97 as potential Karen this weekend affecting the Florida panhandle. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gf sfull/2013100200/gfsfull_pres_wind_watl_31.png"


what is that pressure a moderate TS??
Quoting 1130. LAbonbon:
This short video of Wutip in Vietnam reminds me of why watching a storm through a screen is as close as I want to be.





Pfft.
If the NSA is watching, it looks like we are go for launch.

There is a strong precedent for my combining comet discoveries in the sky with past hurricane forecasts(2007 Comet Holmes)

Hit the gas, baby.(forecast timing)

1. Where, location of OK hand signal - Click photo to play, Published Post 39 - 8/29/13,

2. When
, comet ISON makes closest with Mars(10/1/13,) Post 624 - 9/26/2013 - WU











Quoting 1102. wunderkidcayman:
I see a LLC being either near 17.5N 81.5W or 17.5N 82.3W moving slowly NW

17.9N and 84.7W the weak LLC is
Quoting 1137. KoritheMan:


Pfft.


the only thing that video was missing was snapping trees, poles and peeling roofs :O
Quoting 1140. LAbonbon:


the only thing that video was missing was snapping trees, poles and peeling roofs :O


Maybe I'm crazy, but unless the winds are strong enough to literally collapse my roof on top of me, I'm pretty much unfazed at the prospect of going through a storm.

When I saw that video I was like "What? That's it?"

Honestly seems like child's play to me, lol.
Quoting 1125. GTstormChaserCaleb:
A little something in the long run, nothing to get overly hyped about, but keep it in mind that the Western Caribbean will tend to be the hot spot later in the month and near the secondary peak.



Haven't you learned yet to post these things 360hrs out? If a model went out 14,000hrs would you post it still? How about posting something 1 week out... at least that gets up to a 10% chance of being correct
Quoting 1141. KoritheMan:


Maybe I'm crazy, but unless the winds are strong enough to literally collapse my roof on top of me, I'm pretty much unfazed at the prospect of going through a storm.

When I saw that video I was like "What? That's it?"

Honestly seems like child's play to me, lol.


until the cat 1/2 drops a tree on that roof...
Quoting 1143. LAbonbon:


until the cat 1/2 drops a tree on that roof...


Chance you take, I guess.

I'd rather have a tree go through my house then have the entire thing collapse, though.

But I get what you're saying.
1145. FOREX
Quoting 1144. KoritheMan:


Chance you take, I guess.

I'd rather have a tree go through my house then have the entire thing collapse, though.

But I get what you're saying.


what does 998mb equal in terms of strength of a system?
A 0z ASCAT pass suggests Jerry may not be a tropical storm anymore, even when accounting for the well-documented low bias of that instrument:



Certainly would be expected with the convective pattern the cyclone's exhibiting right now.

Satellite estimates are also continuing to fall.
Quoting 1145. FOREX:


what does 998mb equal in terms of strength of a system?


Probably about 45 kt, all other factors being equal.
1148. FOREX
Quoting 1147. KoritheMan:


Probably about 45 kt, all other factors being equal.
Windspeed
in MPH Description - Visible Condition
0 Calm smoke rises vertically
1 - 4 Light air direction of wind shown by smoke but not by wind vanes
4 - 7 Light breeze wind felt on face; leaves rustle; ordinary wind vane moved by wind
8 - 12 Gentle breeze leaves and small twigs in constant motion; wind extends light flag
13 - 18 Moderate breeze raises dust and loose paper; small branches are moved
19 - 24 Fresh breeze small trees in leaf begin to sway; crested wavelets form on inland water
25 - 31 Strong breeze large branches in motion; telephone wires whistle; umbrellas used with difficulty
32 - 38 Moderate gale whole trees in motion; inconvenience in walking against wind
39 - 46 Fresh gale breaks twigs off trees; generally impedes progress
47 - 54 Strong gale slight structural damage occurs; chimney pots and slates removed
55 - 63 Whole gale trees uprooted; considerable structural damage occurs
64 - 72 Storm very rarely experienced; accompanied by widespread damage
73+ Hurricane devastation occurs


Over the last few years, I've taken a more mature mentality to the "Oh, it's so late in the year, X location is fine. No hurricane worries". Rather than having the above as my prevailing mindset, I'm now more inclined to be attentive to every area of the coastline through November 30. There's a reason that's the official end. I mean, Kate and Ida were November Gulf of Mexico hurricanes, and Sandy was a Halloween hurricane for the east coast. There's literally nothing preventing any of that from happening in any given year except climatology. And while certainly a useful indicator in its own right, it is never a substitute for actual forecasting and analysis.

And even now, 97L threatens to become a tropical storm for the northern Gulf Coast, when I would have assumed the chances were significantly less for that area considering the time of year.

You just don't know...
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED OCT 2 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM JERRY...LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS
DISORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD NEAR OR
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER
TODAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.
SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
LATE THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS COULD AFFECT THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
1151. FOREX
Quoting 1150. Civicane49:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED OCT 2 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM JERRY...LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS
DISORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD NEAR OR
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER
TODAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.
SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
LATE THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS COULD AFFECT THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.


Same 'ol story. Not much confidence in development.
It must be hard to ignore that moisture is approaching Karen from all sides now.

She is spinning a cocoon, drawing in moisture from the Eastern Pacific, and the Atlantic.

The Total Precip. Animation shows that she is pushing the dry air away from her core, becoming much more symmetrical.





02/0545 UTC 28.0N 43.9W T2.0/2.5 JERRY -- Atlantic
AL, 11, 2013100206, , BEST, 0, 281N, 439W, 35, 1009, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 40, 0, 30, 1014, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, JERRY, M,
AL, 97, 2013100206, , BEST, 0, 178N, 848W, 25, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Good morning just getting back from work. Waiting on the new models
really??
Africa said hold up not done yet. It looks like one off Africa and one on Africa. lets see if they do something.

gotta say future karen is looking pretty darn good. lets see if that convection stays up. They always have a way to blow up then fizzle back out. but I must say it looks good now. Just gotta wait and see if it persist now

New Models!! Seems to be pushing more towards Miss/Alabama landfall. This is gonna be interesting within 48 to 72 hrs. That cold front will be very important with the timing of future Karen.
Now the dress ...
Quoting 834. OracleDeAtlantis:Post 834 September 30, 2013





Im posting the 6z models but they keep showing the 00z models smh! Put it like this models shifted west towards Miss/Ala
ensembles in agreement almost directly middle of GOM
looks like we are going to have more activity after this one
Quoting 1080. sar2401:

Still looks like a disorganized mess to me. I see no signs of low level circulation at all.

Who is the more experience here.. drakoen is. I agree with him. I think u need sleep
1168. FOREX
Quoting 1167. RGVtropicalWx13:

Who is the more experience here.. drakoen is. I agree with him. I think u need sleep


Seems like it is running out of time to organize. Any intensity model update?
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JERRY ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
500 AM AST WED OCT 02 2013

...JERRY DRIFTING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 44.0W
ABOUT 1275 MI...2050 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1195 MI...1925 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
500 AM AST WED OCT 02 2013

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH JERRY HAS INCREASED A LITTLE THIS
MORNING...MAINLY IN BANDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND EXPERIMENTAL MULTISPECTRAL AIRMASS IMAGERY SUGGEST
THAT THE CYCLONE IS UNDERNEATH A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW...WITH DRY
AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE CIRCULATION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
THERE ARE NO RECENT SCATTEROMETER OVERPASSES...AND THE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM 6 HOURS AGO. BASED ON
THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A WESTWARD DRIFT OR 270/1. JERRY IS CURRENTLY
SOUTH OF A RIDGE IN THE WESTERLIES. A LARGE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF EASTERN CANADA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
WEAKEN THIS RIDGE LATER TODAY...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE JERRY TO BECOME
EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AS SHOWN BY
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
IN TERMS OF DIRECTION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN SPEED
BETWEEN THE SLOWER ECMWF AND THE OTHER MODELS. THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE FORECAST MOTION BRINGS JERRY OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO DECAY. INDEED...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT JERRY WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH BY THE 72 HOUR POINT.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH THROUGH 72
HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A
REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS AND SUBSEQUENTLY DISSIPATE. AN ALTERNATIVE
SCENARIO IS THAT JERRY DISSIPATES MUCH EARLIER AS FORECAST BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 28.1N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 28.9N 43.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 29.9N 42.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 31.1N 40.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 32.2N 38.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 34.5N 33.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 38.0N 27.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Quoting 1168. FOREX:


Seems like it is running out of time to organize. Any intensity model update?


Vorticity better, Convergence better, Divergence better

Shear Medium until GOM when it gets high

Anticyclone displaced to SW

SST good

TCHP Good

Dry air - Dry air to the west and north

Overall ok conditions, but not great
One caveat to future strengthening of 97L is a small upper low along the Yucatan peninsula. Water vapor imagery shows this feature quite nicely. Unfortunately, the GFS didn't have the best initialization of the low, placing it east of where it actually is, and also portraying it as much weaker.

If this low sticks around for too long, we may start to see some westerly shear.
1175. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
504 AM EDT WED OCT 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL SHIFT NE
AND OUT OF AREA TONIGHT AND WED AHEAD OF ELONGATED LOW PRES AREA
THAT WILL MOVE N ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL AND PENINSULA...POSSIBLY
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF THU...THEN
SHIFT MORE NE AND ACROSS THE NE GULF FRI THROUGH SUN.
WHETHER OR
NOT THIS LOW INTENSIFIES...WIND AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE E AND SE GULF TODAY THROUGH WED ACCOMPANIED
BY SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


Are they still working? Do they proofread?Today is Wednesday.
1176. IKE
6Z GFS @ 24 hours...


1177. RTLSNK
Fear not, we all know where we live, we can still see
where the storm is and what direction it is going, we
can make our decisions based on that information. :)

1178. IKE
Station 42056
NDBC
Location:
19.802N 84.857W
Date: Wed, 02 Oct 2013 08:50:00 UTC
Winds: E (100°) at 13.6 kt gusting to 15.5 kt
Significant Wave Height: 5.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ESE (123°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.80 in and falling
Air Temperature: 81.1 F
Dew Point: 78.8 F
Water Temperature: 84.6 F
Quoting 1178. IKE:
Station 42056
NDBC
Location:
19.802N 84.857W
Date: Wed, 02 Oct 2013 08:50:00 UTC
Winds: E (100°) at 13.6 kt gusting to 15.5 kt
Significant Wave Height: 5.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ESE (123°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.80 in and falling
Air Temperature: 81.1 F
Dew Point: 78.8 F
Water Temperature: 84.6 F


Was just watching that one. Should be interesting to follow through the day.
1180. LargoFl
Good Morning...................
1181. IKE
DMAX is helping 97L. Looks better this morning. Headed for the GOM.
1182. LargoFl

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN FORMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN DRIFT OFFSHORE LATE EVENING.
COVERAGE WILL RANGE FROM WIDELY SCATTERED AROUND BROOKSVILLE TO
SCATTERED FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD TO CHARLOTTE HARBOR...WITH
NUMEROUS STORMS SOUTH OF THERE. NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY BUT BRIEF RAINFALL.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
AN EVENING SURGE OF EASTERLY WINDS MAY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS FOR SOME LOCATIONS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER IN
THE WEEK. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND STRENGTH WOULD INDICATE
LIMITED IMPACTS TO THE AREA. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
EVENING SURGES OF EASTERLY WINDS MAY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE GULF LATER IN THE WEEK IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE LIMITED IMPACT TO THE COASTAL WATERS...OTHER THAN
PERHAPS SOME SWELLS APPROACHING THE COAST. HOWEVER...MARINERS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR ANY CHANGES IN WINDS
AND SEAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

RUDE
1183. LargoFl
1184. LargoFl
GFS for Friday...
1185. IKE
6Z GFS @ 93 hours.....


The lights are coming on now ...

1187. LargoFl
Dry air is becoming less of an issue in the GOM for 97L. The GOM really has moistened up much faster than I thought it would. If this thing is gonna spin up to anything more than a weak TS, it'd better really get its act together today and tomorrow. I'm not rooting it on, just saying. If I were to bet on it, I'd bet on the gremlins of this season to keep it weak. TS along the NCENTGOM at worst. We don't need no stinking 'cane.
1189. LargoFl
1190. LargoFl
Quoting 1188. PensacolaDoug:
Dry air is becoming less of an issue in the GOM for 97L. The GOM really has moistened up much faster than I thought it would. If this thing is gonna spin up to anything more than a weak TS, it'd better really get its act together today and tomorrow. I'm not rooting it on, just saying. If I were to bet on it, I'd bet on the gremlins of this season to keep it weak. TS along the NCENTGOM at worst. We don't need no stinking 'cane.
good morning..NHC still has it at 30-50,guess it has to get into the gulf away from land to get a bit stronger,we'll see.


wow. This was not what I was expecting.
Quoting 1190. LargoFl:
good morning..NHC still has it at 30-50,guess it has to get into the gulf away from land to get a bit stronger,we'll see.


Based on current sat trends, I'm anticipating a bump up on odds for the next TWO.
Quoting 1191. Hurricane614:


wow. This was not what I was expecting.



Ditto here.
It's called, "Surprise!".
Folks this thing is going to be a hurricane in the Gulf. FL Panhandle better be ready for the worst. I would say anywhere from a 70 to 100 mph system.

1196. LargoFl
Quoting 1192. PensacolaDoug:


Based on current sat trends, I'm anticipating a bump up on odds for the next TWO.
yeah I guess from LA over to the western panhandle folks need to stay alert huh..nam and navy bring it close to NO..and gfs over to miss/ala...so far anyway.
By the way what the hell is the NHC looking at!
Quoting 1194. seer2012:
It's called, "Surprise!".



We don't need no stinking surprise!
1199. Gearsts
Quoting 1195. StormTrackerScott:
Folks this thing is going to be a hurricane in the Gulf. FL Panhandle better be ready for the worst. I would say anywhere from a 70 to 100 mph system.

You really need to stop scaring people with your comments.
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 72 degrees and feels like 77. We've a 40 to 50% chance of rain. One place says 40%, another says 50%, I guess they can't make up their mind. I would just like a little bit to water the garden.

The low down south is going to be interesting to watch the next few days. I leave tomorrow for Zander's follow up visit to the cardiologist so will be out of the loop tomorrow afternoon and Friday. I only have to go to Baton Rouge though, not back to New Orleans. It sounds like anyone's guess where the low be when I get back, or what it'll be.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Crepes with Salted Butter Caramel Recipe, Belgian waffles with strawberries or powdered sugar, croissants, French breakfast puffs, French Toast with Bourbon Peach Sauce, Toasted cinnamon brioche with lavender honey, egg and sausage casserole, creamy oatmeal with blueberries, five grain cereal, oats and raisins with low fat milk, shrimp and spinach omelet, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
Quoting 1199. Gearsts:
You really need to stop scaring people with your comments.


It's the truth man this thing is really blowing up. I bet this is Karen right now.

And we have lift off finally for the 2013 season!

IKE & Doug you guys get ready! Is CycloneOZ going to report from the Panhandle?
1204. LargoFl
I see the ship model has joined the Bam model in bringing it over to the nature coast...landfall is not set in stone yet for the gulf coast states..we all need to stay alert for whatevet it becomes huh..
1205. LargoFl

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
TODAY ACROSS COASTAL ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND
INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS BEING MONITORED FOR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AND SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE
EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. AT THE VERY LEAST...RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GENERAL
AREA AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
ARE POSSIBLE IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS ACROSS OR WEST OF THE LOCAL
AREA. IN ADDITION...A PROLONGED EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND MAY RESULT IN
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK ALONG AREA BEACHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

AREA RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE
GULF.

$$
How about that Dry NW Caribbean. Infact MississippiWx said Desert Like.
Quoting 1203. StormTrackerScott:
IKE & Doug you guys get ready! Is CycloneOZ going to report from the Panhandle?



Oz is in Ecuador. So no. Me? I'm always ready during cane season. I've learned my lessons! Still, even if your prediction of 7o-100 is accurate, and that's a big if, We can handle that with out much trouble. Its CAT3 and above where I get really nervous.
1209. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE
THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS LOWER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. COVERAGE WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGHOUTH
THE DAY IN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. WHILE SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...SOME MAY
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME PONDING OF WATER AND MINOR STREET FLOODING
MAY RESULT FROM FREQUENT ROUNDS OF RAINFALL. WATERSPOUTS AND
TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN MARINE AREAS
MAINLY THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CURRENTLY IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY AND
CURVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE
THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYLONE BY FRIDAY OR EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING ASHORE SOMEWHERE ALONG THE MIDDLE GULF
COAST REGION. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH
THIS SYSTEM. A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON BOTH TRACK
AND INTENSITY OF ANY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MAY DEVELOP. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THURSDAY FOR THE GULF
COASTAL WATERS.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE OUTLOOK AREA LATE SATURDAY
THAT WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE AREA. NO WEATHER
HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

$$

1210. LargoFl
6z GFS is just about finished.................
Good morning. 97L is blowing up a lot of DMAX convection right now, which is to be expected. It is likely getting better organized, but not nearly as much as satellite seems to suggest with the new convection. Development will continue to be a slow process and remains far from certain. I still like the NHC's 30/50 odds. The 6z GFS also backed off on intensity, showing just a TD or maybe weak TS at best. Still nothing to get excited over.

Quoting IKE:
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
504 AM EDT WED OCT 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL SHIFT NE
AND OUT OF AREA TONIGHT AND WED AHEAD OF ELONGATED LOW PRES AREA
THAT WILL MOVE N ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL AND PENINSULA...POSSIBLY
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF THU...THEN
SHIFT MORE NE AND ACROSS THE NE GULF FRI THROUGH SUN.
WHETHER OR
NOT THIS LOW INTENSIFIES...WIND AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE E AND SE GULF TODAY THROUGH WED ACCOMPANIED
BY SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


Are they still working? Do they proofread?Today is Wednesday.


Nope-Budget cuts
Lots of fuel in the tank for this one.





1214. LargoFl
Intensity models have no idea either...........
remember gordon? 94 one? it killed people in palm bay florida and the storm looked pitiful. dont let these bloggers tell you it aint so. cyclones can be dangerous no matter the intensity. all it takes is some bad luck
1216. LargoFl
Quoting 1215. islander101010:
remember gordon? 92 one. it killed people in palm bay and the storm looked pitiful. dont let these blogger tell you it aint so. cyclones can be dangerous no matter the intensity. all it takes is some bad luck
yes folks need to stay alert and heed their local warnings thru the weekend.
Dropping like a rock ...

Quoting 1201. StormTrackerScott:


It's the truth man this thing is really blowing up. I bet this is Karen right now.


I bet it's not!
Quoting 1216. LargoFl:
yes folks need to stay alert and heed their local warnings thru the weekend.

Sure will be interesting to watch!
1220. FOREX
Quoting 1216. LargoFl:
yes folks need to stay alert and heed their local warnings thru the weekend.
.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Friday]...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through Thursday, except for
coastal areas where a 20-30% PoP remains in place. By Friday and
beyond, the forecast starts to depend more on the tropical
disturbance in the northwest Caribbean, which is forecast to move
into the Gulf of Mexico. For now, we have leaned more towards the
02/00z ECMWF and UKMET scenarios, which are weaker and farther to
the west as compared to the stronger 02/00z GFS scenario that takes
the system to Panama City. However, considerable uncertainty remains
and forecast confidence is low. Expect gradually increasing rain
chances towards the end of the week and into the weekend in either
scenario, especially for western areas.

&&
from Tallahassee NWS
.LONG TERM [Friday Night through Tuesday]...
Deep layer moisture from the tropical disturbance mentioned above
will likely be advecting NE from the Gulf towards our area.
Significant model differences remain with the handling of this,
and confidence remains low, although the official forecast
currently downplays the 02/00z GFS solution, which is strongest
and furthest east of any of the main global guidance. No changes
were made to the previous long term forecast grids, which had
30-50% PoPs for Sunday through Tuesday.


1221. LargoFl
so far there's no chance this makes a hard right turn huh in the gulf......
1222. LargoFl
1223. LargoFl
lets see if these tracks hold thru friday...............
1224. beell
By late this evening, 97L should finally pull itself together with respect to alignment as it pops out into the GOM. Some issues with SW shear will begin to have some limiting effect on intensification. Shear should slowly increase as the system approaches the Alabama coast and it begins to ease into the westerlies. Most of the weather may remain constrained to the eastern semi-circle. Landfall on Saturday.

The SE Louisiana Parishes along with coastal MS, AL and the Florida Panhandle will have some issues with tides and moderate coastal flooding as enough surface ridging to the north of 97L (probably (Karen)remains to tighten the pressure gradient. A prolonged period of increasing east and southeasterly winds. 97L should make TS status by tomorrow evening.

Early model rainfall estimates are running about 4-5 inches near landfall. Love to stay and chat but hump day is calling.

A bunch of guesses here in this post. It would be wise to pay closer attention to the NHC and NWS
That's a big dress she's putting on.

Good morning. 97 L beginning to look healthier this morning.


1227. LargoFl
from my local met............Meanwhile, an area of low pressure in the northwestern Caribbean will move to the Yucatan Peninsula later today then into the Gulf of Mexico Thursday, possibly bringing moisture to Florida at the end of the week.

"We're still watching the area of low pressure in the Caribbean," Marquez said. "It has a chance of development and it could bring some rain chances into the Bay area Friday and Saturday. Some of the computer models show it moving to the northern Gulf coast but they are not in agreement at this time."
Quoting 1202. StormTrackerScott:
And we have lift off finally for the 2013 season!

Looks like 97L is getting better ventilation and is "breathing," with a better upper-level outflow. Let's see if the T-storms persist or keep on developing. Yikes and excitement ... from the NOLA-MS-AL-FL Panhandle area, looking at the latest run of the models! One thing to always remember, the models do not always tell us how strong this thing is going to get, especially at potential landfall along the north central or northeastern GOM coast - guess we will find out by this weekend! At the least, lots of rain we do not need here, and gusty winds, rough seas. Maybe a lot more?!

Love to come here to see what everyone has to say, especially when the tropics heat up ... Awesome!
Quoting 1227. LargoFl:
from my local met............Meanwhile, an area of low pressure in the northwestern Caribbean will move to the Yucatan Peninsula later today then into the Gulf of Mexico Thursday, possibly bringing moisture to Florida at the end of the week.

"We're still watching the area of low pressure in the Caribbean," Marquez said. "It has a chance of development and it could bring some rain chances into the Bay area Friday and Saturday. Some of the computer models show it moving to the northern Gulf coast but they are not in agreement at this time."

I'd stay alert Largo, I would put much stock in any of the tracks right now.
We have an invest in the Arabian Sea!



Wutip has a floater in the Bay of Bengal as well, meaning it has managed to cross from the Pacific Ocean into the Indian Ocean. Perhaps it'll be an Atlantic system down the line too? ;)



Fitow is starting to blow up now. Should be upgraded to a typhoon later today:



In regards to 97L, I'm going to wait a bit. Many tropical waves have blown up in the Western Caribbean this year, due to the high amounts of energy, only to dwindle after leaving.
Quoting 1211. MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. 97L is blowing up a lot of DMAX convection right now, which is to be expected. It is likely getting better organized, but not nearly as much as satellite seems to suggest with the new convection. Development will continue to be a slow process and remains far from certain. I still like the NHC's 30/50 odds. The 6z GFS also backed off on intensity, showing just a TD or maybe weak TS at best. Still nothing to get excited over.

RIP 97L
In regards to 97L, I'm going to wait a bit. Many tropical waves have blown up in the Western Caribbean this year, due to the high amounts of energy, only to dwindle after leaving.


The Gremlins of 2013
Very heavy rain and T&L in Grand Cayman.
Quoting 1211. MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. 97L is blowing up a lot of DMAX convection right now, which is to be expected. It is likely getting better organized, but not nearly as much as satellite seems to suggest with the new convection. Development will continue to be a slow process and remains far from certain. I still like the NHC's 30/50 odds. The 6z GFS also backed off on intensity, showing just a TD or maybe weak TS at best. Still nothing to get excited over.



Doesn't mean much, it's alternating between strength in each run. For all we know, the 12z may have a 998mb storm.
C'mon sun! I wanna see dis ting!
1236. LargoFl
Quoting 1229. sporteguy03:

I'd stay alert Largo, I would put much stock in any of the tracks right now.
yes there still are a few models moving it more eastward,by friday we should have a better idea,still early yet.
97L is absolutely no threat to become anything more than a weak TS still. Looks like it'll be a small storm too in the Gulf, so it looks like a lesser rain event than a larger system. Expect if this develops to see a dried out, sheared system moving into the coast.
1238. beell
And one other item of interest. Ain't it always about the timing? 06Z GFS is also slower.


(click image for full discussion and graphics)

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT WED OCT 02 2013

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS UNCERTAINTY IN REGARD TO TIMING OF THIS TROUGH. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS...

1239. OneDrop
Quoting 1202. StormTrackerScott:
And we have lift off finally for the 2013 season!

Doode, I want some of that Kool-aid you're drinking!! I respect your opinion but this is a mirror image of the whole 2013 season. The little low that couldn't. Anything could happen but a NE moving system is likely under moderate to heavy shear so powerful it most likely will not be but wind and rain somewhere? Yes. Hey anything could happen but local mets in north Florida don't sound too concerned. Life long native Floridian here and like Doug said, we're just about ready for anything.


Jerry not looking so bad this morning...
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
515 AM EDT WED OCT 2 2013

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-022115-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
515 AM EDT WED OCT 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN FORMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN DRIFT OFFSHORE LATE EVENING.
COVERAGE WILL RANGE FROM WIDELY SCATTERED AROUND BROOKSVILLE TO
SCATTERED FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD TO CHARLOTTE HARBOR...WITH
NUMEROUS STORMS SOUTH OF THERE. NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY BUT BRIEF RAINFALL.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
AN EVENING SURGE OF EASTERLY WINDS MAY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS FOR SOME LOCATIONS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER IN
THE WEEK. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND STRENGTH WOULD INDICATE
LIMITED IMPACTS TO THE AREA. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
EVENING SURGES OF EASTERLY WINDS MAY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE GULF LATER IN THE WEEK IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE LIMITED IMPACT TO THE COASTAL WATERS...OTHER THAN
PERHAPS SOME SWELLS APPROACHING THE COAST. HOWEVER...MARINERS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR ANY CHANGES IN WINDS
AND SEAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

RUDE



Probably something similar to Matthew in 2004. Ida at its strength at the Ms/Al line. Or worst case, without the loops Juan of 1985. track imo between Grand Isle and Mobile Bay.
Quoting 1237. CybrTeddy:
97L is absolutely no threat to become anything more than a weak TS still. Looks like it'll be a small storm too in the Gulf, so it looks like a lesser rain event than a larger system. Expect if this develops to see a dried out, sheared system moving into the coast.
So basically, we won't see anything out of this, like Andrea?
1244. IKE

Lot of dry air ike. Whats your take 40 to 45 max sheared to the east?
1246. IKE

Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Lot of dry air ike. Whats your take 40 to 45 max sheared to the east?
Probably.
1247. MahFL
Quoting 1195. StormTrackerScott:
Folks this thing is going to be a hurricane in the Gulf. FL Panhandle better be ready for the worst. I would say anywhere from a 70 to 100 mph system.



You don't know if it's going to be a cane, a cold front is forecast to sweep down and that will bring massive amounts of shear.
1248. beell
Quoting 1244. IKE:



700 mb rh charts show a downward trend in moisture as 97L approaches the coast.
1249. IKE

Quoting beell:


700 mb rh charts show a downward trend in moisture as 97L approaches the coast.
I noticed that on the GFS. Maybe it will change?
Hey, I'm not sure if someone has already asked this but if the national government is shutdown does that mean FEMA funds are not available to a coming natural disaster such as what we might have with this tropical event in the Gulf???
So long as that anti-cyclone stays over her, you can forget any shear shoveling dry air into her core.

This is the first system to maintain an anticyclone over head like this, this entire season, unless my memory is failing.

1252. MahFL
Quoting 1250. dartboardmodel:
Hey, I'm not sure if someone has already asked this but if the national government is shutdown does that mean FEMA funds are not available to a coming natural disaster such as what we might have with this tropical event in the Gulf???


It's only a partial shutdown, life saving services are not affected.
If you had bothered to check the FEMA website it informs you that disaster services remain normal.
1253. mfcmom
Ok guys we are having Thunder Beach here this weekend in Panama City. But not literally please. Can we huff and puff and blow this thing away. Good morning to all but looks like a really yucky weekend.
1254. WxLogic
Good Morning... 97L looking a bit more robust this AM.
Heavy rain and winds gusting to tropical storm strength. East end had a gust to 39 earlier and I'm sure some areas have had higher winds.
Quoting 1223. LargoFl:
lets see if these tracks hold thru friday...............

Those going way out in the Gulf and then hooking back to the Big Bend area take whatever 97L becomes to me..
1257. WxLogic
There's a bit of competition going at 700MB but if it's able to get it sorted out then it might attempt to develop a bit more quicker.

This is very likely Karen right now. Very tight circulation here. The stronger this gets the more east this moves in the long run.

1259. guygee
MLB NWS seems very sure attm that ECFL is in the clear, whether we get any rain out of it later this week depends on battle of the models ECMWF vs GFS. NWS line attm seems to be that Karen ain't coming ... it's a "T-Wave" or weak low at most. Personally I think they will change their tune on this latter point.

AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
332 AM EDT WED OCT 2 2013

.DISCUSSION...

[...]
THE ECMWF MODEL IS SLOW WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE T-WAVE...KEEPING IT MORE OR LESS AN OPEN FEATURE BEFORE PUSHING IT ONSHORE OVER THE NW GOMEX. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND DVLPS A WEAK CLOSED LOW ARND 1008MB WHILE DRIVING IT TOWARD THE W FL PANHANDLE. NEITHER SOLUTION BODES WELL FOR PRECIP IN CENTRAL FL THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.
[...]
SAT-TUE...
FCST WILL CONTINUE TO BE TIED TO THE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE T-WAVE. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS MODELS KEEP THE SAME BASIC WX FEATURES IN PLAY THRU THE WEEKEND: DEEP RIDGING OVER THE W ATLC AND TROFFING ALONG OR E OF THE LWR MS VALLEY...BUT DVLP THEM IN A MANNER THAT COULD RESULT IN RESPECTABLE PRECIP COVERAGE THRU THE WEEKEND (GFS) OR LEAVE MOST OF THE CENTRAL PENINSULA UNTOUCHED (ECMWF). WILL CAP PRECIP AOB 40PCT THRU THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY THE
T-WAVE WILL TAKE A DELAYED SWIPE AT CENTRAL FL...THEN DECREASING TO AOB 20PCT THRU THE END OF THE FCST AS THE T-WAVE IS ABSORBED BY THE NRN STREAM.
[...]
1260. WxLogic
I would put 97L at 40% at the moment with a 50% if it's able to sustain convection by 2PM.
Quoting 1256. JrWeathermanFL:

Those going way out in the Gulf and then hooking back to the Big Bend area take whatever 97L becomes to me..



Those hard right hook models are showing a stronger system. That's the difference and that is what the GFS was showing yesterday.
Quoting 1260. WxLogic:
I would put 97L at 40% at the moment with a 50% if it's able to sustain convection by 2PM.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATER TODAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AFTER THAT...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS COULD AFFECT THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON.
We really need a recon out to investigate 97L. If not the NHC will be sitting back with egg on their face as they have called much worse looking systems than this.

1264. WxLogic
Quoting 1263. StormTrackerScott:
We really need a recon out to investigate 97L. If not the NHC will be sitting back with egg on their face as they have called much worse looking systems than this.



One should be out this afternoon. More specifically 2:45PM. :)
Quoting 1263. StormTrackerScott:
We really need a recon out to investigate 97L. If not the NHC will be sitting back with egg on their face as they have called much worse looking systems than this.



From 8 AM TWO.

AN
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON.
1266. HCW
Are OBama's kids doing the NHC circles right now with the Govt being shut down ? Really only 40% ? What a joke ! Well at least we get recon later today
Quoting 1259. guygee:
MLB NWS seems very sure attm that ECFL is in the clear, whether we get any rain out of it later this week depends on battle of the models ECMWF vs GFS. NWS line attm seems to be that Karen ain't coming ... it's a "T-Wave" or weak low at most. Personally I think they will change their tune on this latter point.

AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
332 AM EDT WED OCT 2 2013

.DISCUSSION...

[...]
THE ECMWF MODEL IS SLOW WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE T-WAVE...KEEPING IT MORE OR LESS AN OPEN FEATURE BEFORE PUSHING IT ONSHORE OVER THE NW GOMEX. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND DVLPS A WEAK CLOSED LOW ARND 1008MB WHILE DRIVING IT TOWARD THE W FL PANHANDLE. NEITHER SOLUTION BODES WELL FOR PRECIP IN CENTRAL FL THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.
[...]
SAT-TUE...
FCST WILL CONTINUE TO BE TIED TO THE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE T-WAVE. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS MODELS KEEP THE SAME BASIC WX FEATURES IN PLAY THRU THE WEEKEND: DEEP RIDGING OVER THE W ATLC AND TROFFING ALONG OR E OF THE LWR MS VALLEY...BUT DVLP THEM IN A MANNER THAT COULD RESULT IN RESPECTABLE PRECIP COVERAGE THRU THE WEEKEND (GFS) OR LEAVE MOST OF THE CENTRAL PENINSULA UNTOUCHED (ECMWF). WILL CAP PRECIP AOB 40PCT THRU THE WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY THE
T-WAVE WILL TAKE A DELAYED SWIPE AT CENTRAL FL...THEN DECREASING TO AOB 20PCT THRU THE END OF THE FCST AS THE T-WAVE IS ABSORBED BY THE NRN STREAM.
[...]


That Saturday thru Tuesday forecast is interesting because the Euro tries to develope that wave in 8 days and move it right into E C FL.

Quoting 1266. HCW:
Are OBama's kids doing the NHC circles right now with the Govt being shut down ? Really only 40% ? What a joke !


What a joke is right. I am at a lose for words right now.

Quoting 1250. dartboardmodel:
Hey, I'm not sure if someone has already asked this but if the national government is shutdown does that mean FEMA funds are not available to a coming natural disaster such as what we might have with this tropical event in the Gulf???
Don't worry, we're not all rude here
Quoting 1255. GrandCaymanMed:
Heavy rain and winds gusting to tropical storm strength. East end had a gust to 39 earlier and I'm sure some areas have had higher winds.


Yeah I am seeing lots of 35 to 40 mph winds across the Cayman's this morning and why 97L isn't called is beyond me.
1271. MahFL
Quoting 1266. HCW:
Are OBama's kids doing the NHC circles right now with the Govt being shut down ? Really only 40% ? What a joke ! Well at least we get recon later today


It's only a partial shutdown.
Quoting 1252. MahFL:


It's only a partial shutdown, life saving services are not affected.
If you had bothered to check the FEMA website it informs you that disaster services remain normal.


Ya know it's odd that 3 weeks ago we had money to bomb Syria but now we can't keep National Parks and Monuments open? FEMA won't be needed for this one unless its in small amounts I'm thinking, (hoping).
1274. Relix
Quoting 1270. StormTrackerScott:


Yeah I am seeing lots of 35 to 40 mph winds across the Cayman's this morning and why 97L isn't called is beyond me.


There's not a defined circulation right now. You can have a cluster of storms with hurricane winds and if there isn't an actual low level center you have nothing.
1276. Dakster
Quoting 1270. StormTrackerScott:


Yeah I am seeing lots of 35 to 40 mph winds across the Cayman's this morning and why 97L isn't called is beyond me.


Gotta SCAT pass that shows a circulation down to the surface?

About the only thing I can think of stopping them.
1278. Pallis
Quoting 1263. StormTrackerScott:
We really need a recon out to investigate 97L. If not the NHC will be sitting back with egg on their face as they have called much worse looking systems than this.

Uh, government shut down, couldnt get to computer, government car locked. There. That solves that problem.
Quoting 1274. Relix:


There's not a defined circulation right now. You can have a cluster of storms with hurricane winds and if there isn't an actual low level center you have nothing.
This was the case when Dolly passed Grand Cayman a few years ago. TS force winds with very heavy rain but it was not called until right after she passed us due to the fact HH did not find a closed low.
Quoting 1274. Relix:


There's not a defined circulation right now. You can have a cluster of storms with hurricane winds and if there isn't an actual low level center you have nothing.


Circulation is closed and has been since last night.
1282. sdswwwe
Oh boy someone has a nasty case of dmax wishcasting right now. Get well soon...

Convection + wind != TS
Quoting 1280. StormTrackerScott:


Circulation is closed and has been since last night.


What evidence you have that there is a closed LLC? Let's wait for the plane to reach 97L and see if it finds that closed LLC you elude to.
Morning all! Yikes! I see that some of us are still operating in premature panic mode.
1286. MahFL
Quoting 1277. StormTrackerScott:


Senate is gun hoe on not funding Obama Care as they should be.


Actually it's the GOP that wants to de-fund Obamacare, the Dems in the Senate do not want to de-fund Obamacare.
1288. intampa
stormtrackerscott lets keep all your panic associated with 97 on 97, keep your obama derangment syndrome and welfare queen fear stories and take back amurica crap over on the fox news site please.
Quoting 1277. StormTrackerScott:


Senate is gun hoe on not funding Obama Care as they should be. For instance my wife just had our second child 2 months ago and we paid $7,500 insurance paid the rest while low income people that were on Government assistance paid nothing and these same people were complaining on why their deductible was $10. I was like really!
Well, no, the Senate majority is for the ACA; rather, it's a small but (for some unexplainable reason) influential group of children in the House who are mad they haven't been able to stop the increasingly-popular ACA--though they've tried dozens of times to no avail--so now they're attempting to circumvent the democratic process by threatening to burn down the nation, leading to, among other things, the loss of hugely important climate- and weather-monitoring processes that really need to continue...
Wow. 97L did improve with DMAX...

1292. guygee
Political posts get the big red one this morning.
1293. RTLSNK
Now would be a great time to stop all the political
shots and talk about the weather. This is not the
political blog, take those comments to your personal
blogs please.
1296. mfcmom
Please all this is NOT a political site. There are so many to choose from. Some of us are actually trying to folllow the development of this since we live in the what could be affected area. Thank you.
Quoting 1292. guygee:
Political posts get the big red one this morning.
I agree.I don't come here for politics.
1299. WxLogic
Hopefully this helps divert the topics:



Sure looks menacing in IR Shortwave. :)
1301. Dakster
So....

Anyone think that 97L will be called a TD this afternoon or evening?
1302. hulakai
in years past 97L would probably have received more respect than it seems to be getting now. Although we've had a good number of storms, ACE has been quiet.

Have not heard much discussion of AMO lately. Since the mid 1990's we've been in an active period, but lately have been trending toward quiet. Maybe we've crossed the threshhold to quiet and can expect years of relatively weak hurricane seasons.

Might not help the blog traffic, but insurance companies can replenish their reserves.
Pressure down a single millibar, but still a ways from TS status at just 25 knots, despite the overheated wording of a few...

AL, 97, 2013100212, , BEST, 0, 181N, 853W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
1304. WxLogic
Quoting 1301. Dakster:
So....

Anyone think that 97L will be called a TD this afternoon or evening?


I believe by evening if it's able to hold that ULAC and keep up the convention and/or increase it further along with getting its act together at 700MB.
Quoting 1301. Dakster:
So....

Anyone think that 97L will be called a TD this afternoon or evening?


I'll answer this after we get a couple of hours of visible shots!
Quoting 1289. Neapolitan:
Well, no, the Senate majority is for the ACA; rather, it's a small but (for some unexplainable reason) influential group of children in the House who are mad they haven't been able to stop the increasingly-popular ACA--though they've tried dozens of times to no avail--so now they're attempting to circumvent the democratic process by threatening to burn down the nation, leading to, among other things, the loss of hugely important climate- and weather-monitoring processes that really need to continue...

Do you think we can possibly stay on topic? The subject of the blog is about our system in the Caribbean which has the potential to develop and move through the Gulf of Mexico. I don't think politics is what should be discussed here now.

Thanks! ;-)
Quoting 1301. Dakster:
So....

Anyone think that 97L will be called a TD this afternoon or evening?


Possibly.
1308. RTLSNK
Quoting 1293. RTLSNK:
Now would be a great time to stop all the political
shots and talk about the weather. This is not the
political blog, take those comments to your personal
blogs please.


Personal attacks can be added to this advice.
Talk about the weather and not each other.
No other warning will be given. Thanks.
Quoting 1306. NaplesWebDesigner56:

Do you think we can possibly stay on topic? The subject of the blog is about our system in the Caribbean which has the potential to develop and move through the Gulf of Mexico. I don't think politics is what should be discussed here now.

Thanks! ;-)

I noticed they bumped in up to 40%. I honestly think it should be higher now. It is looking good. Time for the red crayola.
1310. HCW
Impact WX intermetiate Update:

Disturbance 58 Becoming Better Organized - Development More Likely

7:25 AM CDT, Wednesday, October 2nd

Disturbance 58 is near 18N/84W in the northwest
Caribbean. Movement is to the NW at 10 mph. Satellite imagery over the
past 3 hours indicates that the dsiturbance is becoming better
organized. There is a good chance that it will develop into a
depression within the next 24 hours as it moves into the southern Gulf
of Mexico. By tomorrow, it could become a weak tropical storm in the
southern Gulf of Mexico. Southwesterly winds aloft ahead of an
approaching cold front should steer the storm north-northeastward
generally toward the western Florida Panhandle on Saturday. Though it
could become a weak tropical storm in the Gulf, increasing wind shear as
it nears landfall should lead to weakening. The main threat over land
areas will be from heavy rainfall Saturday afternoon through Sunday from
the Mississippi coast to the central Florida Panhandle. Please see our
latest advisory below for more information.

Quoting 1303. Neapolitan:
Pressure down a single millibar, but still a ways from TS status at just 25 knots, despite the overheated wording of a few...

AL, 97, 2013100212, , BEST, 0, 181N, 853W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,


And is a disturbance not a low.
1312. HCW
Quoting 1309. ITCZmike:

I noticed they bumped in up to 40%. I honestly think it should be higher now. It is looking good. Time for the red crayola.

I found the red crayola !!
Quoting 1309. ITCZmike:

I noticed they bumped in up to 40%. I honestly think it should be higher now. It is looking good. Time for the red crayola.

Interesting both the HWRF and GFDL take her right up to Missisippi and near-abouts....
1315. FOREX
Quoting 1313. StormTrackerScott:


Really just looks like a strong wave at this point. not sure Scott.
AL, 11, 2013100212, , BEST, 0, 282N, 439W, 35, 1009, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 40, 0, 30, 1014, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, JERRY, M,
Quoting 1292. guygee:
Political posts get the big red one this morning.


I'm with you ...
Quoting 1313. StormTrackerScott:
Might be decieving you scott.I have seen much better systems that at the end didn`t haver a closed low.
Look at the MJO coming back in 15DAY and look the GFS Ensembles!
1320. GetReal
Quoting 1206. StormTrackerScott:
How about that Dry NW Caribbean. Infact MississippiWx said Desert Like.


Scott,

That was 2 days ago and I said that would limit its development chances in the short term, which it did, while you were claiming the system would spin up quickly into Karen. You said it would be Karen by yesterday. Other than increased convection this morning, I see no evidence to say that this is anymore organized than yesterday yet. As for the dry air, it will continue to struggle with it, especially if the circulation strengthens and begins to pull in air from further away. It's pretty obvious that dry air still surrounds the system and is still limiting 97L on the western and northwestern parts.
1322. GetReal
Quoting 1313. StormTrackerScott:


We are going to have to wait a few more frames to see the LLC in more detail.
Quoting 1321. MississippiWx:


Scott,

That was 2 days ago and I said that would limit its development chances in the short term, which it did, while you were claiming the system would spin up quickly into Karen. You said it would be Karen by yesterday. Other than increased convection this morning, I see no evidence to say that this is anymore organized than yesterday yet. As for the dry air, it will continue to struggle with it, especially if the circulation strengthens and begins to pull in air from further away. It's pretty obvious that dry air still surrounds the system and is still limiting 97L on the western and northwestern parts.



I also believe Scott and WKC said the COC was was more N and E and was moving N....guess that didn't pan out.....
97L looks like nothing more then a storng open wave this morning
1326. GetReal
1327. LargoFl
Quoting 1322. GetReal:


Shifting west....not liking that....
Starting to get that shrimp look to it.

1330. FOREX
Quoting 1327. LargoFl:


TWC just said the coc is moving West towards the Yucatan which would kill the system unless a new low form under the deep convection which is possible but not all that likely.
1331. RTLSNK
1332. HCW
Models are locked on my beach house. Now if I could only get blond and redhead models at my beach house :)

its starting to get better now watch out for invest 97L
Quoting 1312. HCW:

I found the red crayola !!
Love it! Time to draw that red circle! LoL!
1335. IKE

48m
97L in western Caribbean looks bigger and prettier than Jerry. Have an east side weighted system with squalls to ts over n cent gulf 10/4-5
1336. vis0
CREDIT: erau.edu (though  final product not theirs)
SUBJECT: INVEST97L
PERIOD: 201310-02'0930_10-02'1200    click4VID
1337. GetReal


97L is what it is ATT; a blob with very little cyclonic rotation evident. Maybe it will improve this afternoon...
1338. LargoFl
OT wow we just had some big excitement here around the corner from me,feds and police surrounded this house, all had those ar-15's and used a battering ram to break down the door..saw on the vests homeland security etc...wow...no idea what happened in there...
GFS

After looking at one more frame of visible this morning at the NASA site, it's a possibility that a low might have closed off north of the Central Honduran coast in the "ball" of convection on the SW side of the system. Low clouds can be seen moving due east just off the coast there. This is obviously not hard evidence, but it's a possibility. This still does not take away from the fact that the system is still unstacked with the mid-level vort well to the northeast of where the actual surface low could be consolidating.

1341. MahFL
Quoting 1309. ITCZmike:

I noticed they bumped in up to 40%. I honestly think it should be higher now. It is looking good. Time for the red crayola.


The NHC is always conservative. They can more easily go from 50 % to TS in one leap than to unduly say something is 80% when 6 hours later it's dead in the water.
1342. icmoore
Quoting 1338. LargoFl:
OT wow we just had some big excitement here around the corner from me,feds and police surrounded this house, all had those ar-15's and used a battering ram to break down the door..saw on the vests homeland security etc...wow...no idea what happened in there...


Wow, Largo!
Quoting 1324. cat6band:



I also believe Scott and WKC said the COC was was more N and E and was moving N....guess that didn't pan out.....


Lol. Yes. Not really trying to brag about anything, but I haven't exactly been wrong about the things I've said about 97L yet. I said a moderate tropical storm at peak was the most I could see coming from this which is still valid.
1344. MahFL
Quoting 1332. HCW:
Models are locked on my beach house



Left or right side of the house ? lol.


Nam is offering Louisiana shrimp!
1346. Torito


dry air is retreating.

Quoting 1343. MississippiWx:


Lol. Yes. Not really trying to brag about anything, but I haven't exactly been wrong about the things I've said about 97L yet. I said a moderate tropical storm at peak was the most I could see coming from this which is still valid.


You and I are calling for the same thing, really. But I am expecting a "shrimp" shape to it like Andrea and Lee.
1349. LargoFl
Quoting 1342. icmoore:


Wow, Largo!
yeah this was like watching a movie..scary for a time too lol
1350. Torito
97 seems to be moving west starting to glare at the stalled out front north of hispanola hum
1352. Torito
Jerry hiding inside the UUL that he has been attached to... really cool to look at....

1353. icmoore
Quoting 1349. LargoFl:
yeah this was like watching a movie..scary for a time too lol


I'll bet it was and I will be curious to hear what that was all about! You and me live in the same county.
1354. FOREX
Quoting 1351. islander101010:
97 seems to be moving west starting to glare at the stalled out front north of hispanola hum


One major model is predicting the system will split and die, then we have the GFS trying to develop a new low under the deep convection.
Quoting 1340. MississippiWx:
After looking at one more frame of visible this morning at the NASA site, it's a possibility that a low might have closed off north of the Central Honduran coast in the "ball" of convection on the SW side of the system. Low clouds can be seen moving due east just off the coast there. This is obviously not hard evidence, but it's a possibility. This still does not take away from the fact that the system is still unstacked with the mid-level vort well to the northeast of where the actual surface low could be consolidating.



No really. I mean I have been saying this all morning. Expect Karen this afternoon or tonight. Also you have not been right about 97L at all so don't kid yourself as you said the Dry air in the NW Caribbean would still be there when I tried to tell you it would get pushed over into the BOC which has happened Also I said yesterday we would have Karen today I did say however I thought 97L would be a TD on Tuesday night.

NAFES calling for panhandle hit from 97L



But look at the model at the end of the run. Not one, or two, but three storms in the basin. That's fantastyland, but still.

1360. Torito
the next TD/TS?


Once recon gets to 97L then expect a renumber with 97L as we do have a closed COC.

1362. Torito


No boating today thanks to a little spin off of 97L...

Quoting 1355. StormTrackerScott:


No really. I mean I have been saying this all morning. Expect Karen this afternoon or tonight. Also you have not been right about 97L at all so don't kid yourself as you said the Dry air in the NW Caribbean would still be there when I tried to tell you it would get pushed over into the BOC which has happened Also I said yesterday we would have Karen today I did say however I thought 97L would be a TD on Tuesday night.



Lol. Ok, Scott. There are other people here who have kept up with this. I'm not going to argue about who is right or wrong with you. It's too childish. The evidence is back in the previous blog and this one and it speaks for itself.
1365. LargoFl
Quoting 1353. icmoore:


I'll bet it was and I will be curious to hear what that was all about! You and me live in the same county.
maybe the news will have it tonight..i asked one of the local cops what was going on, he stayed quiet just said they were serving a search warrant..didnt want to say what was really going on..hope it wasnt terrorists or something..its a rental house people only been in there a few months..car has Mass plates..and werent friendly at all.
Quoting 1338. LargoFl:
OT wow we just had some big excitement here around the corner from me,feds and police surrounded this house, all had those ar-15's and used a battering ram to break down the door..saw on the vests homeland security etc...wow...no idea what happened in there...

Oh man ... I must have given them the wrong address ...
SAFES

1368. myway
Please stop the political BS.
We finally have a tropical system to argue about.
Quoting 1361. StormTrackerScott:
Once recon gets to 97L then expect a renumber with 97L as we do have a closed COC.



Can you give us a link or some proof of a closed COC?
People keep mentioning a shrimp shape for 97L...doesn't it kinda look like a stingray right now?
1371. HCW
Quoting 1365. LargoFl:
maybe the news will have it tonight..i asked one of the local cops what was going on, he stayed quiet just said they were serving a search warrant..didnt want to say what was really going on..hope it wasnt terrorists or something..its a rental house people only been in there a few months..car has Mass plates..and werent friendly at all.



You really need to look into buying a digital scanner :)
1372. LargoFl
6z Nam..check out the Low (yellow) by the islands..
1373. Torito
Quoting 1368. myway:
Please stop the political BS.
We finally have a tropical system to argue about.


I guess this post by a mod diddnt help...


"Now would be a great time to stop all the political
shots and talk about the weather. This is not the
political blog, take those comments to your personal
blogs please."

"Personal attacks can be added to this advice.
Talk about the weather and not each other.
No other warning will be given. Thanks."



...
Good Morning. Out of town today but still have internet access. Basically, per NHC, a 50/50 chance of a low grade tropical storm over the next 5 days, facing dry air and sheer in the Gulf, and a definite rain event for someone on the Northern Gulf coast going into the late weekend or Monday time frame.

As I mentioned yesterday, I believe that the only potential game changer would be if the system were able to reach TD or Storm status before reaching the Yucatan before facing some limiting conditions in the Gulf.

Now we just have to watch and wait to see if can defy a few odds and pull a fast one over the next 24 hours..........Flip a coin.
Quoting 1359. CJ5:

Shush we've all had enough.
Quoting 1361. StormTrackerScott:
Once recon gets to 97L then expect a renumber with 97L as we do have a closed COC.

I think we all need to take a moment and recognize Stormtrackerscott's brilliant analysis. He has been consistently magnificent the entire season.
1377. LargoFl
Quoting 1371. HCW:



You really need to look into buying a digital scanner :)
yeah would have been great listening in..
Quoting 1355. StormTrackerScott:


No really. I mean I have been saying this all morning. Expect Karen this afternoon or tonight. Also you have not been right about 97L at all so don't kid yourself as you said the Dry air in the NW Caribbean would still be there when I tried to tell you it would get pushed over into the BOC which has happened Also I said yesterday we would have Karen today I did say however I thought 97L would be a TD on Tuesday night.



Scott, please don't pretend you were right and Mississippi was wrong....I have followed both of your comments since yesterday, you said we'd have a TD already. You also said the COC was N and E of it's current location, and you also said it was moving N.....None of which has come to past...stop beating your chest and wishing it somewhere it's not going. You do have some great posts (sometimes)...it isn't about who's right or who's wrong....we're all gonna be wrong at some point...
1379. FOREX
Quoting 1374. weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Out of town today but still have internet access. Basically, per NHC, a 50/50 chance of a low grade tropical storm over the next 5 days, facing dry air and sheer in the Gulf, and a definite rain event for someone on the Northern Gulf coast going into the late weekend or Monday time frame.

As I mentioned yesterday, I believe that the only potential game changer would be if the system were able to reach TD or Storm status before reaching the Yucatan before facing some limiting conditions in the Gulf.

Now we just have to watch and wait to see if can defy a few odds and pull a fast one over the next 24 hours..........Flip a coin.


I'm sticking with my forecast of it becoming and staying a depression with no further strenghthening.
may i re mind you guys of rule #11 Political comments are allowed, as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic.



1381. MahFL
Quoting 1368. myway:
Please stop the political BS.
We finally have a tropical system to argue about.


Not yet....it's just an invest right now.
I think the models are wrong. This is a SW coast Fl storm. I am guessing Tampa or South, Sarasota area?.... models will continue to correct to the East.
Quoting 1379. FOREX:


I'm sticking with my forecast of it becoming and staying a depression with no further strenghthening.


We don't know how it will turn out at this point but that is a reasonable guess considering the dry air, sheer, and moderate temps in the Gulf with no warm pools out there.
1384. Torito
Quoting 1383. weathermanwannabe:


We don't know how it will turn out at this point but that is a reasonable guess considering the dry air, sheer, and moderate temps in the Gulf with no warm pools out there.


dry air seems to be moving out now, however...

1385. LargoFl
Quoting 1382. congaline:
I think the models are wrong. This is a SW coast Fl storm. I am guessing Tampa or South, Sarasota area?.... models will continue to correct to the East.
thats what I am watching out for..Bams model has said a right hand turn all along..who know..we'll see in a couple of days..still early yet.
1386. LargoFl
Ukmet..................
1387. GatorWX
Quoting 1361. StormTrackerScott:
Once recon gets to 97L then expect a renumber with 97L as we do have a closed COC.



If we do, it's likely that it's tracking wnw towards the center of the Yucatan with the mid level energy having a more northward component towards the eastern gom.



Good luck to you 97L! It's not going to be particularly easy to get going once in the gom and I believe it's going to have a much better chance if it can develop, at least some, before crossing the Yucatan.

Elsewhere,

things can change. lots of variables land interaction could be in 97s near future no heberts box ideas
1389. KORBIN
I am looking at the models and i feel a bit uneasy about this storm. It looks much strong this morning then last and will soon be a TD or TS.

When we have models how often does the initial few runs are actually correct with landfall?
It seem that more times than not Florida is in the cross hairs then it goes else where. I think everyone from Mexico to Fl should keep an eye on this one.
1390. GatorWX
At least the Atlantic resembles hurricane season!
1391. LargoFl
At 1200 UTC, 02 October 2013, DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL97) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 18.1°N and 85.3°W. The current intensity was 25 kt and the center was moving at 8 kt at a bearing of 300 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb.
1392. GatorWX


Mid level:

1393. FOREX
Quoting 1389. KORBIN:
I am looking at the models and i feel a bit uneasy about this storm. It looks much strong this morning then last and will soon be a TD or TS.

When we have models how often does the initial few runs are actually correct with landfall?
It seem that more times than not Florida is in the cross hairs then it goes else where. I think everyone from Mexico to Fl should keep an eye on this one.


I see a lot of convection but no spin.
Quoting 1355. StormTrackerScott:


No really. I mean I have been saying this all morning. Expect Karen this afternoon or tonight. Also you have not been right about 97L at all so don't kid yourself as you said the Dry air in the NW Caribbean would still be there when I tried to tell you it would get pushed over into the BOC which has happened Also I said yesterday we would have Karen today I did say however I thought 97L would be a TD on Tuesday night.



By the way, this is what I said about the "dry air in the NW Caribbean"...

Quoting 383. MississippiWx:

97L is very broad for now without even anything close to a closed circulation. There will be no "quick spin-up" for a while. To quickly spin up, it would need deep convection to persist on the western portion of the axis as well to help consolidate low pressure. This is not going to happen for a while thanks to the desert-like airmass in the NW Caribbean.


This was posted 2 days ago, btw. Nothing about it "staying there" or preventing development altogether. Just that it would keep it from "quickly spinning up" like you have been claiming all along. Now, there's my evidence.
1395. RTLSNK
Quoting 1308. RTLSNK:


Personal attacks can be added to this advice.
Talk about the weather and not each other.
No other warning will be given. Thanks.


No political comments, no personal attacks, simple.
Please re-read the rules, and follow them, simple.
Thanks.
1396. Torito
Quoting 1374. weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Out of town today but still have internet access. Basically, per NHC, a 50/50 chance of a low grade tropical storm over the next 5 days, facing dry air and sheer in the Gulf, and a definite rain event for someone on the Northern Gulf coast going into the late weekend or Monday time frame.

As I mentioned yesterday, I believe that the only potential game changer would be if the system were able to reach TD or Storm status before reaching the Yucatan before facing some limiting conditions in the Gulf.

Now we just have to watch and wait to see if can defy a few odds and pull a fast one over the next 24 hours..........Flip a coin.


So the odds are in the system's favor, it appears..


You flipped 1 coin of type US 1935 Buffalo Nickel:



Timestamp: 2013-10-02 13:39:39 UTC

Link
yes the old hebert box #2 it is oct.
1398. GatorWX
We'll see.

1399. LargoFl
Aircraft leaves in an hour.
Quoting 1398. GatorWX:
We'll see.




Seems as though the moisture field is making the dry air "get out of dodge".....
1402. LargoFl
Local met upped tampa bays rain chances for the weekend...
Quoting 1395. RTLSNK:


No political comments, no personal attacks, simple.
Please re-read the rules, and follow them, simple.
Thanks.




sure here is rule 11 Political comments are allowed, as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic



so there for we can talk about Political and since Political have some in to do with the weather with the goverment shut down we can talk about it


so what if dr m dos a blog about the govrment shut down you going too ban evere one for talking about Political?? with the blog topic being about the goverment shut down and how its efficing noaa wish is all so about weather



some of you modes need too light in up 97L is nothing more insvet right now
Wow, woke up and didn't expect to see this!
1405. GatorWX
It has slowly organized over the last few days, but I'm afraid it's running out of time before encountering land. The Yucatan isn't horribly detrimental to a developing cyclone, as opposed to a mountainous land mass, but conditions aren't going to be as favorable on the other side, wherever it pops off.



I'll say it's perhaps 50% 48hrs, 60% 120hrs.
1406. LargoFl

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATER TODAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AFTER THAT...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS COULD AFFECT THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

FORECASTER PASCH

Quoting 1382. congaline:
I think the models are wrong. This is a SW coast Fl storm. I am guessing Tampa or South, Sarasota area?.... models will continue to correct to the East.


You could be correct.....if 97L is slower than predicted now to advance into the GOM then you would be correct.
1408. LargoFl
Quoting 1405. GatorWX:
It has slowly organized over the last few days, but I'm afraid it's running out of time before encountering land. The Yucatan isn't horribly detrimental to a developing cyclone, as opposed to a mountainous land mass, but conditions aren't going to be as favorable on the other side, wherever it pops off.



I'll say it's perhaps 50% 48hrs, 60% 120hrs.
I just hope it doesnt fool everyone and jump over the tip of cuba.
I'm not seeing any Westward movement at this time. I feel the models will be trending more East as we go forward in time. IMO.
1410. RTLSNK
Quoting 1403. Tazmanian:




sure here is rule 11 Political comments are allowed, as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic



so there for we can talk about Political and since Political have some in to do with the weather with the goverment shut down we can talk about it


so what if dr m dos a blog about the govrment shut down you going too ban evere one for talking about Political?? with the blog topic being about the goverment shut down and how its efficing noaa wish is all so about weather



some of you modes need too light in up 97L is nothing more insvet right now


I am referring to that rule Taz. I am talking about
political comments that "DON'T" refer to Science.
But thank you for your help.
1411. GatorWX
Quoting 1401. cat6band:



Seems as though the moisture field is making the dry air "get out of dodge".....


All wind shear is out the west (wsw-wnw and will be increasing. WV loops can be misleading sometimes. Notice how the western edge of the moisture envelope looks like it's butted up against a wall?

And there's a weak upper level cyclonic spin immediately to the nw,



Look at my post on the last page in reference to shear.
1412. pcola57
Good Morning All..

Current Jet Stream Analysis..





We are in the heavy stuff now..LOL
feeling some wind gusts in the 25 to 30 mph range here near the south coast of G.C.
Todays garden upgrade job in a temporary holding pattern...

Quoting 1393. FOREX:


I see a lot of convection but no spin.


Convection + no circulation = drift. Ensembles are more or less back on the same page, unlike the schism we saw last night.
Quoting 1361. StormTrackerScott:
Once recon gets to 97L then expect a renumber with 97L as we do have a closed COC.



Would you please re-post your sat image and circle the darn thing (the COC), because I don't see it. Not that I am an expert or anything. All I see is a blob of clouds similar to many we have seen in that area. In fact, there's a blob that looks similar to it, only smaller, over South Louisiana and no one here is predicting it to become anything of interest.

I just don't get where you are pulling all of these predictions from. There is a huge cold front coming Saturday that will probably kill the development and push it off to the east. That's what the local mets here are predicting. If the NHC doesn't send reconnaissance into the system, we won't be able to really know exactly what, if anything, is developing just from sat loops and radar. It looks the same to me as it did two days ago, just with more heavy clouds. With the sequester and now a government shutdown, who knows when that will be. Haven't been really impressed with the NHC's grasping at straws this season anyway.
1416. Patrap


1417. GatorWX
Quoting 1408. LargoFl:
I just hope it doesnt fool everyone and jump over the tip of cuba.


The two energies would have to split. The llc is quite clearly down on the sw corner of convection, whether closed off or not. I'll say that it looks like an elongated low (ssw-nne). It's not stacked at all right now. As it did last night when I looked, lower convergence is strong under mid level center.

WOW....all systems are go except the Shear on 97L ....it has very strong Convergence, very strong Divergence and good 850mb Vorticity......this will be a Tropical Depression within the next 36hrs sooner than later IMO!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1420. Patrap
Quoting 1417. GatorWX:


The two energies would have to split. The llc is quite clearly down on the sw corner of convection, whether closed off or not. I'll say that it looks like an elongated low (ssw-nne). It's not stacked at all right now. As it did last night when I looked, lower convergence is strong under mid level center.

That would be correct Gator.



When is recon departing
Quoting 1368. myway:
Please stop the political BS.
We finally have a tropical system to argue about.

Yea, agw would be a better topic than the political stuff!