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Little Change to 97L in Central Caribbean

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:16 PM GMT on September 30, 2013

A low pressure system (Invest 97L) over the Central Caribbean is generating heavy rains from Jamaica to the coast of Panama, and is moving northwest at about 8 mph. Satellite loops show 97L has a modest area of disorganized heavy thunderstorms. The broad area of spin 97L had on Sunday is less apparent today. Dry air covers the Northwest Caribbean, and this dry air is slowing development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F), and wind shear has fallen since Sunday, and is now a moderate 10 - 20 knots.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 97L.

Forecast for 97L
Marginally favorable conditions for development are expected for the next five days, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast, with moderate levels of wind shear (10 - 20 knots), but an atmosphere that will grow drier as 97L approaches the Northwest Caribbean and Southeast Gulf of Mexico. None of the reliable computer forecast models develop 97L into a tropical depression over the next five days. These models (the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET) predict a northwesterly track for 97L over the next three days, bringing the center into the Yucatan Channel between Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba by Thursday. On this path, 97L will bring heavy rains of 2 - 4" to Jamaica and Southwest Haiti on Monday, to the Cayman Islands and Central and Eastern Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday, and to Western Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday and Thursday. It is uncertain if 97L will then turn northeast and affect Florida late in the week, or stay in the Central Gulf of Mexico and head north into Louisiana. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 10%, and 5-day odds of 30%.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of TD 11.

Little change to Tropical Depression 11 in the Central Atlantic
Tropical Depression Eleven continues to wander slowly across the Central Atlantic, far from land. Wind shear from an upper-level just northwest of TD 11 is currently keeping the storm disorganized, with just a small area of heavy thunderstorms displaced from the center of circulation. However, the storm is more organized than on Sunday, and just a small reduction in shear should allow TD 11 to intensify into Tropical Storm Jerry. TD 11 is not a threat to any land areas.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1501. Patrap
Quoting 1489. LargoFl:
if the home is paid off..you dont need flood insurance manditory I mean..but you take the chance huh.


What some do here in that situ, is put 10-15% away a month, into a repair/replace account. A friend of mine manages something like dat.

Maybe check out the insurance gains in Profits from 2001-2008

They went from 2.5 Billion in 01 to 12.5 Billion in 08.

Yeah, they in a bind seems.
Quoting 1497. daddyjames:


Yes, private insurers do not provide flood insurance in flood prone areas. That is why the feds stepped in.

I don't agree with it. What it does is allow developers to continue to develop regions that eventually will be overwhelmed. It indirectly allows building to occur. Now, There is a "grandfather" clause that allows only a maximum 25% hike, but all bets are off once the property is sold. The ultimate affect will be that these properties will only be sold to those that can afford to live there.

It is not economically sustainable.

I wonder if there is information available for "economic" damages for regions due to storms that examines where the likely impact would be. I guess, what would be the impact of a storm - if there were no development on barrier islands in SoFL.

Hundreds of millions of dollars are spent every few years in each county of SoFl to "renourish" the beaches in the name of "protecting" what has already been built. All of this washes back out into the sea. If we took that money, and burned it or dumped it into the ocean, we would be outraged.

As sea level continues to rise, it'll only get worse and eventually the battle is going to be lost. Bettter to wave the white flag right now, and encourage peeps to move elsewhere.


Just to be clear - you disagree with federal flood insurance everywhere, or just for homes that sit on the coast?
1503. Torito
1504. Torito
Jerry is somehow still holding together....

i can see home insurance becoming unaffordable soon going to have to wing it
1506. Patrap
1507. Greg01
Mystery 13th Century eruption traced to Lombok, Indonesia

Link
starting to be in better agreement
1509. Patrap


Multi-Platform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis

Currently, this product combines information from five data sources to create a mid-level (near 700 hPa) wind analysis using a variational approach described in Knaff and DeMaria (2006). The resulting mid-level winds are then adjusted to the surface applying a very simple single column approach. Over the ocean an adjustment factor is applied, which is a function of radius from the center ranging from 0.9 to 0.7, and the winds are turned 20 degrees toward low pressure. Over land, the oceanic winds are reduced by an additional 20% and turned an additional 20 degrees toward low pressure.

The five datasets currently used are the ASCAT scatterometer, which is adjusted upward to 700 hPa in the same manner as the surface winds are adjusted downward, feature track winds in the mid-levels from the operational satellite centers, 2-d flight-level winds estimated from infrared imagery (see Mueller et al 2006 ) and 2-d winds created from Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU)- derived height fields and solving the non-linear balance equations as described in Bessho et al (2006). Past analyses also made use of the QuickSCAT scatterometer (i.e., prior to November 2009), but this satellite is no longer producing observations of surface vector winds.

Each of the input data are shown in subpanels following the analysis (i.e., storm-relative). Shown are AMSU winds, Cloud-drift/IR/WV winds, IR-proxy winds and Scatterometer winds; QuikSCAT, when available for past analyses (BLUE) and ASCAT (RED). All input data in these panels has been reduced to a 10-m land or oceanic exposure depending on the location (i.e., non-surface data has been reduced to a 10-m exposure).

How good are the wind estimates? Here is the verification based upon 2007 data . These statistics were based on 1) H*Wind data when available and 2) best track wind radii estimates from NHC. In interpreting the wind radii verification it is important to not that the zero wind radii are included in the verification, which both skews and inflates the MAE verification statistics. Note however detection is improved over climatology provided by Knaff et al. (2007).
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JERRY ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
1100 AM AST TUE OCT 01 2013

...JERRY NOT MOVING MUCH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 43.5W
ABOUT 1300 MI...2095 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1170 MI...1885 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
1100 AM AST TUE OCT 01 2013

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED TO
THE WEST OF A SMALL AREA OF DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. BASED ON
DATA FROM A RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS AND A BLEND OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40
KT. ANIMATION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE STORM...SO
STRENGTHENING DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM. LATER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVENT
MUCH...IF ANY...INTENSIFICATION. BY 5 DAYS...EVEN STRONGER SHEAR
IS LIKELY TO CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD OCCUR
SOONER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE
MODEL CONSENSUS BUT BELOW THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RECENT MOVEMENT...SO THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY. JERRY IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN A REGION OF
WEAK STEERING CURRENTS...BUT MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATE
THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE AREAS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTERWARD...THE
STORM IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS
IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGHER-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 28.1N 43.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 28.1N 43.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 28.7N 44.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 29.5N 44.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 30.3N 43.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 31.5N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 32.5N 37.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 33.0N 34.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
I think the models will keep on going east due to the deep trough comingvto the south I just hope it doesn't get to strong and what about the tampa bay area what impacts will they get
Quoting 1505. islander101010:
i can see home insurance becoming unaffordable soon going to have to wing it


The discussion here is about flood insurance rates. Not regular home insurance. Or am I missing something.
Quoting 1480. LargoFl:
from baynews9.....
0







CLEARWATER --
Flood insurance rates are set to increase though Florida officials are trying to combat the rate hikes.

Gov. Rick Scott is scheduled to be in Clearwater Tuesday to discuss the pending insurance rate changes.

The governor will be joined by several local leaders at the Pinellas Realtors Organization office at 4590 Ulmerton Road in Clearwater today as Florida could be the proverbial ground zero of the rate hike crisis.

According to the Pinellas County Property Appraiser's office, the county has more homes affected by the flood insurance changes than any other county in the United States. There are about 25,000 non-waterfront Pinellas homes that are affected.

Those homeowners are facing huge increases to their flood insurance rates due to the federal government no longer subsidizing the cost of some policies.

Scott is leading an effort for Congress to fix the issue but with the ongoing government budget issue, it may not be a priority.

Florida sens. Bill Nelson and Marco Rubio have voiced their opinions about the legislation, along with lawmakers from states hit hard by Superstorm Sandy like New Jersey and New York.

The rates take effect today.



Always amazes me that those that emphasize "the market can solve everything" change their tune all too rapidly when following that mantra impacts their chances of reelection . . .
Quoting 1491. RitaEvac:
Galveston in deep trouble too with hike rates, it's everybody. Galveston may actually be depopulated by hike rates.


One day at cat5 is going to level Galveston Island.
Padre Island near Corpus Chrisi, which is gaining population, along with Port Aransas could one day be wiped out by a major storm.
1516. SLU
Minimal TS

1517. LargoFl
Quoting 1501. Patrap:


What some do here in that situ, is put 10-15% away a month, into a repair/replace account. A friend of mine manages something like dat.

Maybe check out the insurance gains in Profits from 2001-2008

They went from 2.5 Billion in 01 to 12.5 Billion in 08.

Yeah, they in a bind seems.
yeah if you put that premium in the bank each year instead of mailing it to an insurance company imagine what you'd have over the years..ive been here almost 30 years..never once filed a claim on my homeowners ins..i'd have almost enough to build a new house on my own with that money gee...but fear of the unknown is what insurance companies rely on..
I think the low from 97 is more east of where models are initializing
Is Dr. M gonna do a new post? Or has the Government shut that down too?
1520. Patrap
Quoting 1502. LAbonbon:


Just to be clear - you disagree with federal flood insurance everywhere, or just for homes that sit on the coast?


I have not read the law itself - but based on the news reports - it s primary impact is upon those properties that have repeatedly flooded - over and over and over, again.

This si why I always scratch my head when I hear stories of people/communities vowing to rebuild gagain, after reeatedly being impacted. When do you not say, "You know Mother Nat, I get the message - we should not have built here."

So, i agree. If you have repeatedly been flooded. Then perhaps its time to move.
Quoting 1513. marknmelb:


The discussion here is about flood insurance rates. Not regular home insurance. Or am I missing something.


New legislation aimed at making the federal flood insurance program 'pay for itself' went into partial effect today. Therefore rate increases, some quite substantial.
1523. LargoFl
Quoting 1512. psetas23:
I think the models will keep on going east due to the deep trough comingvto the south I just hope it doesn't get to strong and what about the tampa bay area what impacts will they get
so far anyway local mets say just an increase in rain chances..me im staying alert to any changes in track.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1525. guygee
I called my congressman Bill Posey FL District 8, who is on the Science committee. I called his Washington office and I was pleased that I got to speak with his chief of staff. I brought up the fact that while the local NWS offices have the message, "Due to the Federal Government shutdown, NOAA.gov and most associated web sites are unavailable. However, because the information this site provides is necessary to protect life and property, it will be updated and maintained during the Federal Government shutdown." , NOAA.gov has a different message, "Due to the Federal Government shutdown, NOAA.gov and most associated web sites are unavailable.This site will remain accessible during the federal government shutdown. However, information on the site may not be up to date and we may not be able to respond to inquiries until appropriations are enacted."
(emphasis mine). I told the staffer that this was inappropriate because it put into doubt the validity of the data on the GOES information server, and that was very important information that a lot of people rely on to keep up to date on weather and the tropics. He was very patient and went through the websites with me. He noted that the GOES information was currently up to date. I told him they should have a priority message that the satellite information server information will be kept up to date. He told me he could not promise it would be fixed but he did promise to pass on my concerns to the congressman. So we will see what happens.
Quoting 1516. SLU:
Minimal TS

What storm is that from.
As I look at it more and more with new images it becomes clearer LLC located near 16.5°N 80.8°W
3000%? o_O...The thunderstorms we get in the afternoon are usually localized and would lead to a localized flooding event, but even then the water would tend to drain out really fast. I think this is really for hurricane flood insurance and if your house is along the coast for when the big one comes. It's been 8 years since the last major hurricane (Wilma) has hit the state. We also get a dry period between the winter and spring months.

Link
Quoting 1502. LAbonbon:


Just to be clear - you disagree with federal flood insurance everywhere, or just for homes that sit on the coast?


Relocating has been done before. An example:

With Houses In Tow, Town Exits Flood Plain

in the long run, this makes more economic sense.

For coastal residents, its not necessarily that easy. And, as heartless as it may seem, it should be "build at your own risk". As it was for a long time.

The only people that have profited are developers - allowing them to develop properties that - although desirable, are not the best places to build.
1530. Patrap
i'd have almost enough to build a new house on my own with that money gee...but fear of the unknown is what insurance companies rely on..
Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/littl e-change-to-97l-in-central-caribbean#ZZBfbfmvMoG4v 4Wh.99


I do security work at the Hilton for a Company that handles large events there. I worked the Green room for State Farms Chairman's circle convention here in April. From former JCS Chairman Mullen to State Farms CEO were there. And believe me, what I overheard well, will make a good entry one day in da futcha'

I hear your emote in your post, its palatable..and after what we saw Gulf Wide post K, R, and others since,...

A most sad unreported fact:

Many a strong man/woman literally ate a bullet over what they thought was insured...was actually total losses.

Without appeal.
Quoting 1521. daddyjames:


I have not read the law itself - but based on the news reports - it s primary impact is upon those properties that have repeatedly flooded - over and over and over, again.

This si why I always scratch my head when I hear stories of people/communities vowing to rebuild gagain, after reeatedly being impacted. When do you not say, "You know Mother Nat, I get the message - we should not have built here."

So, i agree. If you have repeatedly been flooded. Then perhaps its time to move.


I agree with your thoughts on repetitive flooding (very high risk) areas. However, the legislation covers anyone, in a low, moderate or high risk location. It is not solely for coastal areas. This means people far inland as well, who have never flooded.

My neighborhood was built in the 1970s. It is in the 500-year floodplain. My address is considered low to moderate risk. The new rules affect me too. I urge everyone to check their flood risk location at floodsmart.gov.

I think there's a dichotomy here - people keep envisioning high-dollar homes sitting at the edge of the ocean. No, I don't want to subsidize some random rich guy. But there are many folks not in that situation that this effects.
Not expecting much of a response friends, but I'll throw it out there in case there's someone bored and intelligent and generous, all those things working for me :)

I plan to hit Siesta Key, Sarasota, FL this Thurs and Friday, and all of the weather outlooks show heavy heavy chances of rain.

I've been following 97L down south, and always thought this was the Mets contributing factor to awful weather late this week in Sarasota. But with the momentum and direction it looks to be taking, I don't see the washout on the central Gulf Coast being realistic. Anyone have some thoughts on my concern? I've thought about cancelling the trip, if it's going to be a washout.

Thanks buds!
1533. flsky
If you take a larger, less personalized view, this might be the best action. I was there for the aftermath of Galveston's last hurricane and it was an absolute mess. The majority of residents were inundated and most had wind damage as well. FEMA (you and I) spent so much money just getting them back up to speed. Galveston will always be vulnerable to tropical catastrophe. Will our taxes just keep paying for people to live there?

Quoting 1491. RitaEvac:
Galveston in deep trouble too with hike rates, it's everybody. Galveston may actually be depopulated by hike rates.
1534. flsky
Government services during the shutdown:

Link
Quoting 1452. Neapolitan:
That's tough to disagree with. After all, it seems to be working pretty well for Somalia...



von Mises and his Austrian disciples are probably more responsible more responsible than any other group for the global economic situation.

Hers an interesting read on the collapse; the Chicago boys get a good part of the blame.