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Quiet in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:15 PM GMT on September 25, 2013

In the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico, a stalled stationary front is bringing heavy thunderstorms to west-central Florida, where heavy rains of up to six inches have caused flooding problems. A weak area of low pressure along this front will move over the coastal waters several hundred miles offshore of North Carolina by Friday, when an extratropical storm is expected to develop. Ocean temperatures off the North Carolina coast are 26 - 27°C, which is warm enough to help give the storm some extra energy and moisture. However, wind shear will be high, and this storm is expected to stay non-tropical as it heads north-northeast, potentially bringing rainy weather to New England and the Canadian Maritime Provinces on Sunday and Monday. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave no odds that anything tropical would spin up in the next five days. None of the reliable computer models for tropical cyclone genesis predicts development over the next five days, and the Atlantic is dominated by dry air and high wind shear. The next area to watch for development might be the Western Caribbean or the area between the Bahamas and Bermuda next week. However, chances of development will be below average for this time of year, due the fact we are in the suppressed phase of the MJO. This suppressed phase may end by mid-October, increasing the odds of development in about two weeks' time.


Figure 1. All quiet in the Atlantic: The Atlantic remains welcomely quiet at 8:15 am EDT on September 25, 2013, with an unusual lack of heavy thunderstorm activity for this time of year. Image credit: NOAA.

Join me in New York City on Thursday for Climate Week
I write a lot about billion-dollar weather disasters like Hurricane Sandy, the coming great climate disruption, and other "doom-and-gloom" topics. These are important to discuss, but too much talk of disaster can turn people off and make them feel hopeless. Social science research shows that including a positive message along with your science will make people more inclined to believe your science, and it is important to emphasize some of the remarkable solutions on how we can lessen and adapt to climate change that technology and entrepreneurship are coming up with. This Thursday afternoon, I am moderating a panel discussion in New York City on some innovative ways to combat climate change. It's part of Climate Week, which culminates Friday with the release of the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, which is released only once every six years. You can register to attend Thursday's free event here. The session begins at 2 pm with remarks by David Kenny, CEO of The Weather Company, followed by guest speaker Mayor Bloomberg. My "New Frontiers" panel is at 5:40 pm.



Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 417. yoboi:



Link


Let me know if ya need additional links.....

From your link, "As early as the fourth century B.C. however, philosophers and scientists realized that the Earth was actually a sphere."

So, no, a majority of scientists didn't think the Earth was flat.
Quoting 498. BahaHurican:
This is the sort of crap that makes talking about the topic so difficult. This person is just out to jeer and mock. There no real information or respect for the other person if not the other person's position. As a result, even IF he or she ever said something I agreed with, instinctively, [emotionally] I would be repelled by his thinking. Calling me stupid and making dumb jokes about me is not the way to get me to agree with you.

But then that's not what it's about, is it? Really all this person wants is to destroy the conversation, so that nothing worthwhile is ever achieved. People with genuine dissenting views that should be discussed in order to improve our understanding are drowned out by this noise, and people holding the "majority" position become complacent because it seems the only opposition is not credible or serious.

And these guys are running amok on the internet. Sad.


Good post. Totally agree with you.
Quoting 497. BaltimoreBrian:
I see 4 cases of cholera reported in Tehran so far. We'll see if it becomes a major outbreak.


174 cases in the country have been 'registered'. Last year the total number was 15. But you're right, number of cases in the capital itself are low. Something to watch, I think.
Quoting 413. yoboi:


And at one time the majority of scientist thought the earth was flat.........


Well, if you want to get technical...

Cambridge University historian and philosopher of science William Whewell coined the term "scientist" in 1834 (source). Since "the concept of a spherical Earth dates back to ancient Greek philosophy from around the 6th century BC," (source), I'm thinking the scientific establishment in 1834 was quite in agreement about the roundness of the earth.

So, since the spherical earth theory predates the very creation of the word "scientist," the statement "at one time the majority of scientist [sic] thought the earth was flat" is, I'm afraid, incorrect.
Look - snow!




yup, snow forecast for Wyoming and the Dakotas
Quoting 498. BahaHurican:
This is the sort of crap that makes talking about the topic so difficult. This person is just out to jeer and mock. There no real information or respect for the other person if not the other person's position. As a result, even IF he or she ever said something I agreed with, instinctively, [emotionally] I would be repelled by his thinking. Calling me stupid and making dumb jokes about me is not the way to get me to agree with you.

But then that's not what it's about, is it? Really all this person wants is to destroy the conversation, so that nothing worthwhile is ever achieved. People with genuine dissenting views that should be discussed in order to improve our understanding are drowned out by this noise, and people holding the "majority" position become complacent because it seems the only opposition is not credible or serious.

And these guys are running amok on the internet. Sad.


Baha..I had this same conversation with a well known poster yesterday that most idolize on this blog..funny, I dont see many posting this same conversation to him..
I think what we just saw can all be related back to my picture on post 264.
8-14 Day Temperature Outlook

Quoting 471. opal92nwf:
people have not looked at Atlantic hurricanes the same way ever since the 2004-2005 seasons (and mainly cause of Katrina)

I read accounts of people on a Hurricane Andrew fb page of what they were doing the day before. Some of them didn't even know there was a storm coming! (and at that point it was a major!!) I thought to myself that there is almost no way that will happen in this day and age because of the level of alarmism and vulturing the media now does (mainly TWC) when there is any wisp of cloud in the Atlantic that could become a trop cyclone. And again, this is all because of 2004-2005, the seasons that caught everyone in the nation's attention.

I would love to hear your thoughts on this
I know back in the 80s when I was going to school in NC it was almost impossible to find out what was happening storm-wise in the MDR... even the Wx Channel would say something like... "yeah there's a hurricane somewhere out in the ATL, but it's not threatening the US, so no worries..." About drove me crazy.

I am kinda glad people are more aware today.
Quoting 508. MrMixon:
8-14 Day Temperature Outlook



Nice and warm in Virginia. Perfect golfing weather.
Quoting 451. Patrap:
Climate




Americans%u2019 health, security, and economic well-being are tied to climate and weather. In the last 2 years, the United States experienced 25 climate- and weather-related disasters exceeding $1 billion ($115 billion total) in damages and claiming 1,019 lives. The public, businesses, resource managers, and policy leaders are increasingly asking for information to help them understand how and why climate conditions are changing and how they can prepare.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is a primary provider of climate science, data, tools, and information used by stakeholders and citizens in decision-making contexts. These resources are supported by our strong foundation in science %u2014 including global climate observation and monitoring networks; world-renowned scientists; and state-of-the-art climate models.

NOAA is working with partners and the public to build a climate-smart nation that is resilient to climate and weather extremes, and long-term changes. Drawing upon NOAA%u2019s foundation in science, our objectives are to:

reduce vulnerability to extreme climate and weather events;
prepare for drought and long-term water resource challenges;
protect and preserve coasts and coastal infrastructure;
identify and manage risks to marine ecosystems and the services they provide; and
mitigate and adapt to climate impacts.
The current bought and paid for majority in senate still supports NOAA and yet they still refuse to acknowledge the combining of many alphabet soups has only more tightly controlled political science into a tool for well moneyed corporations.The rising rate of population due to open borders with no laws being enforced combined with a central bank lending money to bad investments equals the extreme devaluation of our monetary standard, but still tied to the everyday spending dollar for the average American means that 115$ Billion is just average, and has nothing to do with the weather, but instead is a blown up figure of rich people having houses in places that never should have been built on in the first place... America no longer fishes it's own waters, Thanks environmentalists for helping other countries rape our waters and sell it back to us. NOAA cares for itself and itself only.
Quoting 488. JRRP:
It's really pitiful when I can type with a straight face that this is best looking anything I've seen approaching the Antilles in weeks... [sigh]....

Quoting 499. MrMixon:
Look - snow!

LOL... so is that a good thing or a bad thing????

;o)

Edit: Wonder if they got any in Riverton...
Quoting 504. MrMixon:


Well, if you want to get technical...

Cambridge University historian and philosopher of science William Whewell coined the term "scientist" in 1834 (source). Since "the concept of a spherical Earth dates back to ancient Greek philosophy from around the 6th century BC," (source), I'm thinking the scientific establishment in 1834 was quite in agreement about the roundness of the earth.

So, since the spherical earth theory predates the very creation of the word "scientist," the statement "at one time the majority of scientist [sic] thought the earth was flat" is, I'm afraid, incorrect.
Heh Heh. I can't wait to hear your response when they call you a crazy racist, or a mainlander.
Quoting 515. Pallis:
Heh Heh. I can't wait to hear your response when they call you a crazy racist, or a mainlander.


Then wait no more. My response would be thus:

"Huh? What?"
Quoting 511. Pallis:
The current bought and paid for majority in senate still supports NOAA and yet they still refuse to acknowledge the combining of many alphabet soups has only more tightly controlled political science into a tool for well moneyed corporations.The rising rate of population due to open borders with no laws being enforced combined with a central bank lending money to bad investments equals the devaluation of our monetary standard, but still tied to the everyday spending dollar for the average American means that 115$ Billion is just average, and has nothing to do with the weather, but instead is a blown up figure of rich people having houses in places that never should have been built on in the first place... America no longer fishes it's own waters, Thanks environmentalists for helping other countries rape our waters and sell it back to us. NOAA cares for itself and itself only.




We need a major hurricane to track on here within the next few weeks, because I don't think this blog can take this level of bickering and nonsensical logic (on both sides, mind you, the above is just an example of one) for the rest of the hurricane season.
@EricBlake12 10h
If someone had showed me this SSTA map in the pre-season and told me no El Nino too, I would have been excited...



Note: that random negative anomaly southwest of Tampa is not actual data, the buoys near that location are malfunctioning.
Quoting 498. BahaHurican:
This is the sort of crap that makes talking about the topic so difficult. This person is just out to jeer and mock. There no real information or respect for the other person if not the other person's position. As a result, even IF he or she ever said something I agreed with, instinctively, [emotionally] I would be repelled by his thinking. Calling me stupid and making dumb jokes about me is not the way to get me to agree with you.

But then that's not what it's about, is it? Really all this person wants is to destroy the conversation, so that nothing worthwhile is ever achieved. People with genuine dissenting views that should be discussed in order to improve our understanding are drowned out by this noise, and people holding the "majority" position become complacent because it seems the only opposition is not credible or serious.

And these guys are running amok on the internet. Sad.

Not to mention that we have reached peak oil. We are now using unconventional sources that are more problematic to produce like fracking and tar sands. So the original statement of the offending post is just wrong to begin with. And that is before the poster goes off with insults.
Quoting 506. ncstorm:


Baha..I had this same conversation with a well known poster yesterday that most idolize on this blog..funny, I dont see many posting this same conversation to him..
nc, I was generalizing from a specific post. However, that doesn't mean I think pejoratives work well for anybody. And since I missed the conversation, I'm not sure who you r referring to, but I keep thinking by having rancorous arguments that are not actually getting people to think about the issues is wasting time that we genuinely may not have.

It's the same data vs. personality split that sometimes takes away from our wx discussions here.
I kinda figured Mr. Cruz would be sleeping instead of blogging here.

So............
Quoting 473. ScottLincoln:

The whole southeast coast will be evacuating and one person will look up and realize all his neighbors are gone. Then we'll get "I didn't have any warning!" (I hear this far too much in my line of work)


I agree with you on some on that..but even as recently during Sandy with all of the technology and social media, many people still choose to stay especially in Jersey. Gov Christie got on TV and warned them that no help would be coming for them but yet they stayed on barrier islands..its not so much with the "I didnt get any warnings" but most people dont want to leave their material possessions behind or dont have the financial means to evacuate to which some staying have cost them their lives..
Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, No. 16 (28 August 2013) 4361-4366; doi: 10.1002/grl.50775.
Increasing amount of Arctic Ocean deep waters in the Greenland Sea

R. Somavilla, U. Schauer and G. Budéus

Abstract

In the last three decades, deep convection has come to a halt in the Greenland Sea. Hydrographic data reveal that during this period, temperature and salinity in the deep Greenland Sea have increased at mean rates without precedent in the last 100 years, and these trends are among the highest in the global deep ocean. The origin of these changes is identified as the advection of Arctic Ocean deep waters and the necessary transports to explain them are calculated (0.44 ± 0.09 Sv). Despite the fact that the deep Greenland Sea hardly covers 0.05% of the global surface, the resulting trends constitute 0.3% of the World Ocean heat content increase per unit area of earth's surface and 0.1% of the global sea level rise. These results suggest that changes of the deep Arctic Mediterranean and their contribution to the global budgets need to be addressed.

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50775/abs tract;jsessionid=9F7D5062A1B88E7508F283F8A24BDE00. d03t04
For some this blog has turned into a platform to bash scientists, environmentalists, and NOAA.

Where does everyone think a lot of our weather data comes from? How about the satellite images? The internet websites and databases?

How about our (relatively) clean air? Water? Who fought for that?

Every day we all turn on the lights, open the fridge, take medicine, get in a car, turn on a computer/TV/radio/cell phone, and access the internet. ALL of it brought to you by scientists.

Scientists are not perfect, but it's an honorable profession. I would never want to return to a world that existed pre-science. And yet, it's become somewhat popular to disparage them.

Many bloggers on here are scientists; some work in the environmental field, some work in private industry, some are likely in academia, and some work for the government in some form.

I have a lot of respect for most of the bloggers on here. What I can't respect is the childish behavior by some, or the unwarranted accusations against entire groups of people.

On that note, I'm signing off the blog for the evening. I certainly hope the dialogue improves upon my return...but unfortunately it's likely a false hope.

Good night, all.

Quoting 514. BahaHurican:
LOL... so is that a good thing or a bad thing????

;o)

Edit: Wonder if they got any in Riverton...


Snow is always a good thing in my book (well, ask me again in late spring...)

Oh, and which Riverton?
Quoting 522. ncstorm:


I agree with you on some on that..but even as recently during Sandy with all of the technology and social media, many people still choose to stay especially in Jersey. Gov Christie got on TV and warned them that no help would be coming for them but yet they stayed on barrier islands..its not so much with the "I didnt get any warnings" but most people dont want to leave their material possessions behind or dont have the financial means to evacuate to which some staying have cost them their lives..


The "it's only a category 1" mentality striked again so to speak for Sandy. I wish we'd come up with something more effective than the SSHS scale. Sandy's destructive potential was more on pair with some of the more powerful hurricanes.
Baha, you're not sure who I am referring to? LOL..okay..who else gets 20+ plusses and calls bloggers ignorant, stupid, dumb, and uses the analogy of a doctor telling a patient not to smoke, etc..

think good and hard..LOL
Quoting 518. TropicalAnalystwx13:
@EricBlake12 10h
If someone had showed me this SSTA map in the pre-season and told me no El Nino too, I would have been excited...



Note: that random negative anomaly southwest of Tampa is not actual data, the buoys near that location are malfunctioning.


The problem lies within those insane-warm SST anomalies between Newfoundland and Europe. No focus of heat in the basin. If we head into 2014 with these same problems, with the same PDO phase, and the ENSO remaining the same, I'll guess around 4-5 named storms.
I would personally like to see something like this soon..I think some people take advantage of a argument to go ego tripping instead..
Quoting 517. CybrTeddy:




We need a major hurricane to track on here within the next few weeks, because I don't think this blog can take this level of bickering and nonsensical logic (on both sides, mind you, the above is just an example of one) for the rest of the hurricane season.
At this point don't even have to be major... another 14 days of "nuttin" and we'll all be "nuts"...

Good night all..



Quoting 493. BahaHurican:
Evening all...

So just after I posted this, we had some more lightning and the power went out.... which nixed the internet... so I played solitaire until the rain gave up, then went home.

Just turned on the blog because I was watching the last-ditch attempts to prevent Obamacare from coming onstream.

I still can't understand why there is so much opposition to such a common-sense solution for a country as wealthy as the US.
You must be kidding Obamacare is the worst thing this country has ever come up with. But we do have a bunch of nuts that voted for this FOOL!!!
Quoting 529. CybrTeddy:


The problem lies within those insane-warm SST anomalies between Newfoundland and Europe. No focus of heat in the basin. If we head into 2014 with these same problems, with the same PDO phase, and the ENSO remaining the same, I'll guess around 4-5 named storms.

I'm in the 'it's having an effect' bandwagon but not the 'it's completely shutting down the season' bandwagon. We've seen several hurricane seasons that ended up very active with a similar profile.

In fact....



There's a much bigger negative factor here. I just have no idea what it is lol.
Quoting 522. ncstorm:


I agree with you on some on that..but even as recently during Sandy with all of the technology and social media, many people still choose to stay especially in Jersey. Gov Christie got on TV and warned them that no help would be coming for them but yet they stayed on barrier islands..its not so much with the "I didnt get any warnings" but most people dont want to leave their material possessions behind or dont have the financial means to evacuate to which some staying have cost them their lives..
Unfortunately, there are always a few who fit into Scott's descriptor handily... you wouldn't expect it in the Bahamas where we get hit somewhere almost every year, but it happens here too... people who get to the grocery store on a weeknight and can't figure out why there's lines like Christmas Eve...

Quoting 525. MrMixon:


Snow is always a good thing in my book (well, ask me again in late spring...)

Oh, and which Riverton?
Well, I love the way snow looks, and I have a great respect for those who are willing to put up with it for months at a time... lol...

I meant Riverton WY... Fremont County. I expect, looking at your map, that Lander and Dubois got some snow, but Riverton is far enough down in the valley to maybe have gotten passed over.
Sometimes you feel like a nut...

The Soyuz crew of 3 are station-keeping with the ISS currently in the Fly around mode.

Docking in 17 minutes.

NASA TV

Quoting 534. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm in the 'it's having an effect' bandwagon but not the 'it's completely shutting down the season' bandwagon. We've seen several hurricane seasons that ended up very active with a similar profile.

In fact....



There's a much bigger negative factor here.


Compare that to current:


SST anomalies are WAY higher in that area than they were in 2005. 2012 was also rather similar.
Dang is windy here



Loop

pssst,

The MDO is turned O-F-F.



Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO)


The Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) is a mode of natural variability occurring in the North Atlantic Ocean and which has its principle expression in the sea surface temperature (SST) field. The AMO is identified as a coherent pattern of variability in basin-wide North Atlantic SSTs with a period of 60-80 years.


Quoting 527. CybrTeddy:


The "it's only a category 1" mentality striked again so to speak for Sandy. I wish we'd come up with something more effective than the SSHS scale. Sandy's destructive potential was more on pair with some of the more powerful hurricanes.


That mentality did ultimately prevail, but I can tell you the local media here did their best to emphasize the "THIS IS MUCH MORE THAN A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE" factor. I think Sandy's rough satellite appearance probably played a role too honestly. People are very superficial. If only the NHC had upgraded Sandy to category 2 while off the Jersey Shore operationally and not after the fact. Trust me, people in Jersey are scared of category 2's. Category 1s? Pfft.
Quoting 529. CybrTeddy:


The problem lies within those insane-warm SST anomalies between Newfoundland and Europe. No focus of heat in the basin. If we head into 2014 with these same problems, with the same PDO phase, and the ENSO remaining the same, I'll guess around 4-5 named storms.


The tripole has to develop strongly to have better energy focused in MDR.
Quoting 540. Patrap:
pssst,

The MDO is turned O-F-F.



Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO)


The Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) is a mode of natural variability occurring in the North Atlantic Ocean and which has its principle expression in the sea surface temperature (SST) field. The AMO is identified as a coherent pattern of variability in basin-wide North Atlantic SSTs with a period of 60-80 years.


Pat, I'm pretty sure that "principle" should be "principal" in that quote, as in "chief, greatest".

Wonder u to talk to at Ucar...
I think I'm gonna head out.

Though I do recall never posting the Bahama Mama recipe I found...

Bahama Mama recipe
1/4 oz coffee liqueur
1/2 oz dark rum
1/2 oz coconut liqueur
1/4 oz 151 proof rum
juice of 1/2 lemons
4 oz pineapple juice

Combine all ingredients and pour over cracked ice in a collins glass. Decorate with a strawberry or cherry and serve.

Read more: Bahama Mama drink recipes http://www.drinksmixer.com/cat/3219/#ixzz2fqw7RkQN

Do NOT let anybody tell you that cherry liquor should be in a Bahama Mama... if you MUST have a fruit liquor, get some pineapple rum, for goodness' sake....

And with that, have a pleasant buzz - I mean night, all...
548. SLU
Quoting 518. TropicalAnalystwx13:
@EricBlake12 10h
If someone had showed me this SSTA map in the pre-season and told me no El Nino too, I would have been excited...



Note: that random negative anomaly southwest of Tampa is not actual data, the buoys near that location are malfunctioning.


I'd say an SST profile like this with no EL Nino could easily support a 16-8-5 kind of season like 2008.

Quoting 548. SLU:


I'd say an SST profile like this with no EL Nino could easily support a 16-8-5 kind of season like 2008.

This is actually the kind of season I was expecting this year. What r we missing from 2008 this year?
OK there is a lot of people on this blog that do not understand that everyear is not 2004 or 2005! There are down years and if you beleave in History look it up! Models are not always right and so call experts are not allways right (GW). Weather is just that it can change in a heart beat and no one know's what may happen we only have about 150 years of real records and that's only a drop in the bucket when it comes to Weather History!!!
First hard frost and first forecast with snow this Thursday/Friday... bring it on! (My wife and I are both ready for allergy season to end).



The above is from my wunderground Nederland, CO weather email. Strangely, the local forecast on the wunderground page for Nederland calls for a lower low on Friday (27 F), but rain, instead of snow.



Go figure...
Quoting 548. SLU:


I'd say an SST profile like this with no EL Nino could easily support a 16-8-5 kind of season like 2008.



'08 was the best.
553. SLU
Quoting 549. BahaHurican:
This is actually the kind of season I was expecting this year. What r we missing from 2008 this year?


Yep .. I predicted a cataclysmic year for the Caribbean and the US with several landfalling major hurricanes based on the 500mb pattern in the earlier stages of the season but fortunately that has busted.

Only 150 years of weather history?

Me tink's you's should use da google on dat un.

You may learn sumting'




List of Arctic expeditions
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This article is incomplete. Please help to improve the article, or discuss the issue on the talk page. (February 2009)
This list of Arctic expeditions is a timeline of historic expeditions in, and explorers of, the Arctic.

Contents [hide]
1 Pre-expedition
2 1400s
3 1500s
4 1600s
5 1700s
6 1800s
7 1900s
8 2000s
9 See also
10 References
11 Further reading
Pre-expedition[edit source]

Inuit, Greek, and Viking voyages in the far north ( Faroes/Greenland/Novaya Zemlya )
1400s[edit source]

1496 Russian G. Istoma venturing out of the White Sea explores Murman Coast and coast of northern Norway, also western coast of Novaya Zemlya
1497 Russians D. Zaytsev and D. Ralev venturing out of the White Sea follow route of G. Istoma
1500s[edit source]

1553 English expedition piloted by Richard Chancellor searches for the North-east Passage
1575–77 English expeditions led by Martin Frobisher reaches Baffin Island
1579 Danish expedition led by John Allday fails to reach Greenland due to ice
1585–87 English expeditions led by John Davis explore the Davis Strait-Baffin Bay region and reaches Upernavik
1596–97 Dutch expedition piloted by Willem Barentsz discovers Spitsbergen
1600s[edit source]

1605–07 Danish expeditions led by John Cunningham, Godske Lindenov and Carsten Richardson (all piloted by James Hall), search for the lost Norse colonies on Greenland
1606 John Knight dies commanding an English expedition in search of the Northwest Passage
1607 Henry Hudson explores Spitsbergen
1610 Jonas Poole thoroughly explores Spitsbergen's west coast, reporting that he saw a "great store of whales"; this report leads to the establishment of the English whaling trade.
1610 Russian K. Kurochkin explores mouth of the Yenesei River and adjoining coast
1612 James Hall and William Baffin explores Southwest Greenland
1612–1613 British Button Expedition
1613 Several whaling expeditions, consisting of a total of at least thirty ships, from England, France, Spain, and the Netherlands crowd Spitsbergen's west coast.
1614 Dutch and French expeditions discover Jan Mayen
1615 Robert Fotherby, in the pinnace Richard, is the first English expedition to reach Jan Mayen
1616 English expedition piloted by William Baffin explores Davis Strait-Baffin Bay region
1619–20 Danish expedition led by Jens Munk in Enhiörningen (Unicorn) and Lamprenen (Lamprey) to discover the Northwest Passage penetrated Davis Strait as far north as 69°, found Frobisher Bay, spent a winter in Hudson Bay.
1633-34 I. Rebrov explores the mouth of the Lena River
1633-35 I. Perfilyev explores Lena and Yana Rivers and intervening coast
1638 I. Rebrov explores coast between the Lena and Indigirka Rivers
1641 D.M. Zyryan and M.V. Stadukhin explore mouth of the Indigirka River and adjoining coast
1646 I. Ignatyev explores explores the mouth of the Kolyma River and adjoining coast
1648 Ya. Semyonov explores mouth of Kotuy River and adjoining coast
1648 Semyon Dezhnyov and Fedot Alekseyev explore from the Kolyma River through the Bering Strait
1649 M.V. Stadukhin explores coast from Kolyma River to Bering Strait
1686-1687 Bezvestnaya Expedition explores the coast of Taymyr Peninsula
1700s[edit source]

Vitus Bering
1712 M. Vagin and Ya. Permyakov explore vicinity of mouth of Yana River and adjoining coast
1733–43 Great Northern Expedition / Second Kamchatka expedition explores coast from the Ob River to the Lena River
1751–53 Peder Olsen Walløe explores the east coast of Greenland from Cape Farewell in umiaks
1760-63 S.F. Loshkin explores Novaya Zemlya
1765-66 V.Ya. Chichagov explores Kola Peninsula coast and Spitzbergen
1768-69 F.F. Rozmyslov explores Novaya Zemlya and Matochkin Shar Strait
1773 Captain Constantine Phipps in HMS Carcass and Commander Skeffington Lutwidge in HMS Racehorse reach 80° 37' N, with a young Midshipman Horatio Nelson among the crew.[1]
1800s[edit source]

1809-11 M.M. Gedenshtorm explores New Siberian Islands
1818 Royal Navy expedition led by Captain David Buchan[2]
1818 Royal Navy expedition led by John Ross to search for the Northwest Passage extended a far north along the west coast of Greenland as Pituffik and met the Kap York-Inuit
1819 Royal Navy expedition aboard HMS Hecla and HMS Griper led by William Edward Parry[3]
1820-24 F.P. Wrangel explores east Siberian coast from mouth of the Kolyma River to the Bering Strait
1821-24 F.P. Litke explores eastern Barents and west coast of Novaya Zemlya, including Matochkin Shar
1821-23 P.F. Anzhu continues exploration of New Siberian Islands
1822 William Scoresby lands in East Greenland near the mouth of the fjord system that would later be named for him – Scoresby Sund.
1823 Douglas Charles Clavering and Edward Sabine explores East Greenland northwards to Clavering Island, where they get in contact with the now extinct Northeast Greenland Inuit.
1826 F. Beechy aboard "Blossom" explores Alaskan coast from Point Barrow to the Bering Strait
1827 First Norwegian expedition to the Arctic, lead by Baltazar M. Keilhau.
1827 Royal Navy expedition to Spitsbergen led by William Edward Parry reaches 82°45’N [4]
1828–30 Danish expedition led by W. A. Graah tries to locate the lost Norse colonies in Southeast Greenland, but does not reach Ammassalik Island.
1829–33 Royal Navy expedition led by John Ross to search for the Northwest Passage discovered James Ross Strait and King William Land, located the magnetic north pole at 70°05′N 96°44′W
1833 P.K. Pastukhov explores southern half of eastern coast of Novaya Zemlya
1833–35 Royal Navy expedition led by Captain George Back[5]
1838–40 La Recherche Expedition (1838-1840)
1845 Franklin's lost expedition led by Sir John Franklin searches for the Northwest Passage.
1848 Rae-Richardson Arctic Expedition searched overland for Franklin's lost expedition.
1850 McClure Arctic Expedition led by Robert McClure, a British search for the members of Franklin's lost expedition.
1850–51 First Grinnell Expedition led by Edwin DeHaven, first American search for the members of Franklin's lost expedition.
1852 Edward Augustus Inglefield sets out to search for Franklin's ill-fated expedition
1853–55 American expedition led by Elisha Kent Kane[6]
1857–59 British expedition led by Francis Leopold McClintock
1860–61 American expedition led by Isaac Israel Hayes
1860–62 First expedition led by Charles Francis Hall (USA)
1864–69 Second expedition led by Charles Francis Hall
1868 First German North Polar Expedition led by Carl Koldewey along the east coast of Greenland
1869–70 Second German North Polar Expedition (Germania and Hansa) led by Carl Koldewey reaches Sabine Island.
1871–73 Third expedition led by Charles Francis Hall: Polaris expedition
1872–74 Austro-Hungarian North Pole Expedition led by Captain Karl Weyprecht
1875–76 British Arctic Expedition led by Captain George Nares
1876–78 Norwegian Northern Seas Expedition in Vøringen explored the Northern Atlantic up to 80°N.
1878 J. A. D. Jensen explores the inland ice sheeth from West Greenland
1878-1881 different voyages with Dutch polar schooner Willem Barents in the area around Spitsbergen and Nova Zembla, organised by Geographical Society of Amsterdam. Goals were 1) placing memorial stones for 17th century Dutch discoveries and 2) scientific research.
1878–79 Swedish Vega expedition, led by Adolf Erik Nordenskiöld
1879–82 USS Jeanette expedition with Lt. George Washington De Long (commander) and George W. Melville (chief engineer)[7]
1881–84 Lady Franklin Bay Expedition, US Army expedition led by Adolphus Greely
1882–1883 (First International Polar Year) Danish Dijmphna expedition to the territory between Russia and the North Pole
1883–85 Umiak Expedition led by Gustav Holm and Thomas Vilhelm Garde along the southeastern coast of Greenland in the shallow waters between the coast and the sea ice.
1883 Failed attempt by Nordenskiöld to cross Greenland from the west
1886 Failed attempt by Robert E Peary (USA) to cross Greenland
1888-89 First successful crossing of the Greenland inland ice by Norwegian expedition led by Fridtjof Nansen (from east to west)
1891–92 The East Greenland Expedition on the Hekla led by Carl Ryder fails to get through the sea ice of East Greenland, but explores the Scoresby Sund system in detail
1891–92 Third US Greenland expedition led by Peary.
1892 Swedish expedition led by Alfred Björling
1893–95 Fourth US Greenland expedition led by Peary
1893–96 Norwegian expedition by Fridtjof Nansen and Hjalmar Johansen on the Fram and over ice towards the North Pole.
1894–97 Jackson-Harmsworth Expedition, led by Frederick George Jackson
1897 S. A. Andrée's Arctic balloon expedition
1898–1902 Second Fram voyage under Otto Sverdrup
1898–1900 The Carlsbergfund Expedition to East Greenland led by G. C. Amdrup explores the Blosseville Coast
1899 Alfred Gabriel Nathorst explores the fjords of Northeast Greenland, in particular the King Oscar Fjord system
1899 Attempt to ski to North Pole from Franz Josef Land by Walter Wellman
1899–1900 Italian North Pole expedition led by Luigi Amedeo, Duke of the Abruzzi on the ship Stella Polare
1900s[edit source]

1898, 1899, 1906, 1907 Prince Albert I's Arctic Exploration with Princesse Alice
1900–03 Russian ship Zarya
1901–02 First North Pole expedition financed by US industrialist William Ziegler, led by Evelyn Baldwin
1902–04 The Literary Expedition led by Ludvig Mylius-Erichsen together with Knud Rasmussen explores the Northwest Greenland coast between Uumanaq and Thule
1903–06 Amundsen's ''Gjøa'' Expedition when Roald Amundsen traversed the Northwest Passage for the first time
1903–05 Ziegler Polar Expedition overland, led by Anthony Fiala
1905–06 North Pole expedition led by Robert Peary, from Ellesmere Island
1906–08 The Danmark Expedition led by Ludvig Mylius-Erichsen reaches Nordostrundingen, but ends fatally
1906, 1907, 1909 The airship America and Walter Wellman
1906–08 Anglo-American Polar Expedition (Mikkelsen-Leffingwell Expedition)
1907–09 US North Pole expedition led by Frederick Cook
1909–12 The Alabama Expedition to Northeast Greenland led by Ejnar Mikkelsen in an operation to recover bodies and logs of the fatal Danmark expedition
1908–09 expedition led by Robert Peary
1910–15 Russian Arctic Ocean Hydrographic Expedition in Taymyr and Vaigach
1912 First Thule Expedition – Knud Rasmussen and Peter Freuchen explores North Greenland
1912–13 J.P. Koch crosses the inland ice in North Greenland
1912–15 Brusilov Expedition, ill-fated expedition led by Captain Georgy Brusilov
1913 Crocker Land Expedition
1913–14 Russian expedition aboard Foka, led by Georgiy Sedov
1913–18 Canadian Arctic Expedition 1913-1916 led by Vilhjalmur Stefansson, initially in the Karluk
1916–18 Second Thule Expedition – Knud Rasmussen and Peter Freuchen explores North Greenland and establishes that Peary Land is not an island
1918–25 Roald Amundsen traversed the Northeast Passage with Maud
1919 Third Thule Expedition – Knud Rasmussen explores North Greenland and lays out depots for Roald Amundsen's polar drift in Maud
1919–20 Fourth Thule Expedition – Knud Rasmussen explores East Greenland
1921–23 Bicentenary Jubilee Expedition (commemorating Hans Egede's landing in Greenland) led by Lauge Koch explores North Greenland
1921–24 Fifth Thule Expedition led by Knud Rasmussen crossed the Northwest Passage on dog sledges from Thule across Arctic Canada to Nome, Alaska demonstrates how inuit culture could spread rapidly
1925 Flying boat expedition led by Roald Amundsen and Lincoln Ellsworth
1926 Aircraft flight by Richard E. Byrd and Floyd Bennett
1926 The airship Norge (Roald Amundsen, Umberto Nobile and Lincoln Ellsworth)
1928 Eielson-Wilkins Arctic Ocean crossing (powered flight Alaska-Spitsbergen)
1928 The airship Italia (Umberto Nobile)
1930 Bratvaag Expedition to Franz Josef Land, found long lost remains of S. A. Andrée's expedition.
1931 Sir Hubert Wilkins with submarine Nautilus (failed 800 km south of the pole).
1931 Sixth Thule Expedition led by Knud Rasmussen explores Northeast Greenland
1931–34 The Three-year Expedition to East Greenland led by Lauge Koch explores Northeast Greenland
1932 Icebreaker Sibiryakov
1933 Russian steamship Chelyuskin
1937 Soviet transpolar flights
1937–1938 MacGregor Arctic Expedition
1938–present Soviet and Russian manned drifting ice stations
1948 Russian scientific expedition led by Aleksandr Kuznetsov lands aircraft at Pole
1958 USS Nautilus passes under the Arctic ice
1959 Discoverer 1 first satellite in polar orbit. (Prototype; no camera.)
1960 Tiros 1 weather satellite in polar orbit; eventually returned 22952 cloud cover photos
1968 Ralph Plaisted and three others reach the north pole by snowmobile.
1968–69 Wally Herbert, British explorer, reaches Pole on foot and traverses the polar sea
1977 Arktika, nuclear-powered icebreaker, reaches the North Pole
1982 Sir Ranulph Fiennes and Charles Burton cross the Arctic Ocean in a single season.
1986 Will Steger and party reach the north pole by dogsled without resupply.
1988 Will Steger completes first south-north traverse of Greenland.
1988 Ski-Trek a joint Soviet-Canadian transpolar expedition aided by satellites.
1992 Scientific environmental expedition; crossing of the Greenland inland ice by Japanese expedition led by Kenji Yoshikawa (from east to west)
1994 Shane Lundgren led expedition began in Moscow and proceeded north of the Arctic Circle across Siberia to Magadan.
1995 Smithsonian Institution's Arctic Studies Center joined Shane Lundgren in a flying expedition to chronicle indigenous people from Yakutsk to Alaska across the Bering Straits. Discovery Online was launched through this expedition.
1955 Marek Kamiński unsupported walked to the North Pole on 23 May 1995 (27 December 1995, he reached the South Pole alone)
2000s[edit source]

2004 Together to the Pole - a Polish four-man expedition led by Marek Kamiński, with Jan Mela (a teenage double amputee, who in the same year reached also the South Pole)
2004 Five members of the Ice Warrior Squad reach the Geomagnetic North Pole, including the first two women in history to do so.
2007 Arktika 2007, Russian submersible descends to the ocean floor below the North Pole.
2007 Top Gear: Polar Special, BBC's Top Gear team are the first to reach the magnetic North Pole in a car.
2008 Alex Hibbert and George Bullard complete Tiso Trans Greenland expedition. The longest fully unsupported expedition in history at 1374 statute miles.
See also[edit source]

Arctic exploration
Cartographic expeditions to Greenland
Farthest North
North Pole
Territorial claims in the Arctic
History of research ships
List of Antarctic expeditions
List of Russian explorers
References[edit source]

[8]

Jump up ^ E. C. Coleman (2006). The Royal Navy in Polar Exploration: From Frobisher to Ross. Tempus. pp. 65–77. ISBN 978-0-7524-3660-9. Retrieved 22 October 2012.
Jump up ^ Beechey, F. W. (1843). A Voyage Of Discovery Towards The North Pole, Performed In His Majesty's Ships Dorothea And Trent, Under The Command Of Captain David Buchan, R. N., 1818. London: Richard Bentley. Retrieved 2009-08-15.
Jump up ^ *An Officer Of The Expedition (1821). Letters Written During The Later Voyage Of Discovery In The Western Arctic Sea. London: Sir Richard Phillips And Co. Retrieved 2009-08-15.
Jump up ^ "Polar Discovery". Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. Retrieved May 20, 2013.
Jump up ^ King, Richard (1836). Narrative Of A Journey To The Shores Of The Arctic Ocean In 1833, 1834, and 1835; Under The Command Of Capt. Back, R. N., Volume I. London: Richard Bentley. Retrieved 2009-08-15. King, Richard (1836). Narrative Of A Journey To The Shores Of The Arctic Ocean In 1833, 1834, and 1835; Under The Command Of Capt. Back, R. N., Volume II. London: Richard Bentley. Retrieved 2009-08-15.
Jump up ^ Sonntag, August (1865). Professor Sonntag's Thrilling Narrative Of The Grinnell Exploring Expedition To The Arctic Ocean In The Years 1853, 1854, and 1855 In Se
One, two, three and to the fo'
Snoop Doggy Dogg and Dr. Dre are at the do'
Ready to make an entrance, so back on up
Gimme the microphone first, so I can bust like a bubble
Compton and Long Beach together, now you know you in trouble
Ain't nothin' but a G thang, baaaaabay!
Two loc'ed out G's so we're craaaaazay!
Quoting 442. Dakster:


yuk... Looking for more Algae blooms? I hope they are not as bad as they were earlier in the year.


Speaking of algae blooms, Madison Water confirmed that our water supply did have a an algae bloom run through the plant and into everyone's (North Nashville, TN's) drinking supply, and they did confirm too that it tastes like dirt.

My water should taste like normal in a day or two.
Quoting 551. MrMixon:
First hard frost and first forecast with snow this Thursday/Friday... bring it on! (My wife and I are both ready for allergy season to end).



Strangely, my current local forecast calls for a lower low on Friday (27 F), but rain, instead of snow.



Go figure...


Perhaps rain during the day, but then the system clears out before snow can fall?

I have to deal with allergies year-round because my school has mold in it, and the district refuses to acknowledge it.
@gulfbreeze

You didn't have to quote the text, if you don't like it, minus/ignore it and move on.
Quoting 560. Astrometeor:
@gulfbreeze

You didn't have to quote the text, if you don't like it, minus/ignore it and move on.
Sorry it did take up a lot of space.
gulfbreeze


and you should be banned for quoting it
Quoting will40:
gulfbreeze


and you should be banned for quoting it


I both

It should of been linked.

Quoting 562. will40:
gulfbreeze


and you should be banned for quoting it


& Patrap shouldn't post that most if not all on here don't have the attention span to read thru all of that.
Good Night Peeps, Stay Safe, use those Buttons, Stop Bickering. Sleep Well.
Southern Caribbean

Quoting 550. gulfbreeze:
OK there is a lot of people on this blog that do not understand that everyear is not 2004 or 2005! There are down years and if you beleave in History look it up! Models are not always right and so call experts are not allways right (GW). Weather is just that it can change in a heart beat and no one know's what may happen we only have about 150 years of real records and that's only a drop in the bucket when it comes to Weather History!!!


Exactly. There are down years in terms of landfalls as well, and this likewise appears to be one of them.
Storm front moving in yesterday evening. This storm had a tornado warning with it.

Quoting 552. wxgeek723:


'08 was the best.


You said it. ;)
Quoting 569. StormTrackerScott:
Storm front moving in yesterday evening. This storm had a tornado warning with it.

Cool! Maybe we'll get a hurricane next. :D
Quoting 553. SLU:


Yep .. I predicted a cataclysmic year for the Caribbean and the US with several landfalling major hurricanes based on the 500mb pattern in the earlier stages of the season but fortunately that has busted.



This year recurvature has not been the issue, it's been lack of storm formation.

If it isn't one thing, it's another, lol.
Quoting 571. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Cool! Maybe we'll get a hurricane next. :D


Yeah, you might. The odds of me getting one are considerably decreased. :/
Quoting 550. gulfbreeze:
OK there is a lot of people on this blog that do not understand that everyear is not 2004 or 2005! There are down years and if you beleave in History look it up! Models are not always right and so call experts are not allways right (GW). Weather is just that it can change in a heart beat and no one know's what may happen we only have about 150 years of real records and that's only a drop in the bucket when it comes to Weather History!!!
Whatchu talking about? "The first known records of rainfall were kept by the Ancient Greeks about 500 B.C. This was followed 100 years later by people in India using bowls to record the rainfall."

Ever heard about the story about Jang Yeong Sil, a Korean scientist who invented the world's first rain gauge, he was ordered to build a chair for King Seong, well the chair broke while the King was travelling and Jang was expelled from the palace and thrown in jail for it.
Quoting 568. KoritheMan:


Exactly. There are down years in terms of landfalls as well, and this likewise appears to be one of them.

Link
Quoting 573. KoritheMan:


Yeah, you might. The odds of me getting one are considerably decreased. :/
Ohhh you can always get something like this a late season crossover hurricane. :D

577. SLU
Quoting 572. KoritheMan:


This year recurvature has not been the issue, it's been lack of storm formation.

If it isn't one thing, it's another, lol.


It's hard to get a "perfect" hurricane season like 2004/05/08.
Quoting 575. CatfishJones:

Link


Funny thing is, 1997 was I believe, the strongest El Nino of record, and we still saw more hurricane and major hurricane activity by this point in the season, including ACE consequentially.

Horrendous, this year.
Quoting 450. ScottLincoln:

That's the one downside to free... it's not for credit so there's no consequence. You can use it as a way to be intellectually honest and learn, or as a mechanism to spew silliness thinking you are making some sort of point.
If it were for credit, of course, those individuals would fail the course which would have ramifications for their academic career.
One Impression that I haven't talked about here, Scott, is the discussions between students from around the world who took the course seriously and talked about themselves, their background and their view of AGW/CC from their own cultural perspectives. I think that alone would be an interesting reason to sign up - just to read the forums - it will open your eyes to the wide international level of interest in the subject. It's a good counter to the ignorance and idiocy of the denialist community here at WU. It's easy to dis-enroll, which I did just before the end when I had accomplished my goals for the course.

In spite of the lack of rigor compared to actual hard-core college/university courses, I think that the UBC Coursera Climate Science course is is a great offering that will help many interested people of all ages, backgrounds, and educational fields and levels from around the world learn about AGW/CC via real climate science.
GFS is showing some much drier air moving into FL later tomorrow.

@RyanMaue
Bad SST observation still out in Gulf of Mexico off Tampa. Shows up in ECMWF ensemble precip fields as a void.

Quoting 577. SLU:


It's hard to get a "perfect" hurricane season like 2004/05/08.
Nah not really, you had 1887, 1933, and 1950. A season like these will come again eventually. Also, this season is like 1997 at least up to this point, did anyone think we would see a season like that again?
Quoting 582. Skyepony:


Might be the seed for our Caribbean system down the road.
Quoting bappit:
What's the source of your numbers Sar? I was wondering where Japan fits in.


The amount of energy consumption per capita shows the US is #10 or #11 in the rankings, depending on the list. The numbers are from 2003, but the best I could find go to 2010 and the rankings haven't changed except by one place for a few countries. Japan is #30 in the list. There are some caveats for this list however. Not every country is included because either the information is not available or a country refuses to provide it. Some of the data is of very doubtful accuracy as well. It's highly unlikely that China is really #60, using less energy per capita than industrial powers like Latvia and Malta.

My point in posting this initially is to counter the knee-jerk reaction I see constantly that "The US uses more energy per capita than any other country in the world". That hasn't been true since 1984, and we have managed to remain the most productive economy in the world while still decreasing our overall power consumption by more than 5%. The United States is a pretty good example to follow for other countries that want to reduce energy consumption.
Quoting 583. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Nah not really, you had 1887, 1933, and 1950. A season like these will come again eventually. Also, this season is like 1997 at least up to this point, did anyone think we would see a season like that again?


I knew we would, but I never thought it would occur in a non El Nino year. Sheesh.
Good evening fellow bloggers! How's everyone?

It has been very hot and dry in Jamaica over the past week or so, September to October is usually the wettest period of the year...this is not good for Jamaica, as season will likely commence in late November.

Current Weather Conditions:
Kingston / Norman Manley, Jamaica

Conditions at

2013.09.26 0300 UTC

Wind from the NNE (020 degrees) at 7 MPH (6 KT)

Visibility: greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions: mostly clear
Weather: Showers in the vicinity
Temperature: 84 F (29 C)
Dew Point: 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity: 74%
Pressure (altimeter): 29.88 in. Hg (1012 hPa)
Quoting 584. StormTrackerScott:


Might be the seed for our Caribbean system down the road.

Maybe.. That is spread out. Has it's moisture over 16 squares.

This lack of consolidation seems to be an inhibitor. We've seen some large distances between upper lows & their surface reflections.


Quoting 578. KoritheMan:


Funny thing is, 1997 was I believe, the strongest El Nino of record, and we still saw more hurricane and major hurricane activity by this point in the season, including ACE consequentially.

Horrendous, this year.


It was extreme as far as the direction of storms..now that is a fish year..almost all the storms go to the NE as soon as they form. Typical El Nino.

I called a trend into MX/Central America this year. The Cool Neutral ENSO, with La Nina conditions here & there gives that westho..

Here's 1997..




589. yoboi
Quoting 504. MrMixon:


Well, if you want to get technical...

Cambridge University historian and philosopher of science William Whewell coined the term "scientist" in 1834 (source). Since "the concept of a spherical Earth dates back to ancient Greek philosophy from around the 6th century BC," (source), I'm thinking the scientific establishment in 1834 was quite in agreement about the roundness of the earth.

So, since the spherical earth theory predates the very creation of the word "scientist," the statement "at one time the majority of scientist [sic] thought the earth was flat" is, I'm afraid, incorrect.



it might help if ya refresh your latin research to show ya are wrong....
I'm so bad I use Wikipedia..."Findings to date indicate that the iron-rich dust particles which often occur within the SAL reflect solar radiation, thus cooling the atmosphere. The particles also reduce the amount of sunlight reaching the ocean, thus reducing the amount of heating of the ocean. They also tend to increase condensation as they drift into the marine layer below, but not precipitation as the drops formed are too small to fall and tend not to readily coelesce. These tiny drops are subsequently more easily evaporated as they move into drier air laterally or dry air mixes down from the SAL aloft. Research on aerosols also shows that the presence of small particles in air tends to suppress winds. The SAL has also been observed to suppress the development and intensifying of tropical cyclones, which may be related directly to these factors.[1]
The SAL is a subject of ongoing study and research."

El-Nino is overrated, this season just proved that and why pre season forecasts are all pretty much guess work. We need to stop trying to rely on if the season is going to be a El-Nino, Neutral, or La-Nina mentality and go with actual observation, real-time data, and look into other factors. SAL, ULL's, How the concentration of Arctic Ice is behaving, what the droughts are looking like in Texas, South America, if we had put that all into perspective before the season and not go based on data from the last 3 years one could have easily seen why this season wasn't going to be an active one. SST, Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential mean absolutely nothing if those other conditions aren't favorable.
Sorry about the rant guys. You all have a goodnight, heading off to bed a little earlier than usual because I have an exam in the morning.
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
I'm so bad I use Wikipedia..."Findings to date indicate that the iron-rich dust particles which often occur within the SAL reflect solar radiation, thus cooling the atmosphere. The particles also reduce the amount of sunlight reaching the ocean, thus reducing the amount of heating of the ocean. They also tend to increase condensation as they drift into the marine layer below, but not precipitation as the drops formed are too small to fall and tend not to readily coelesce. These tiny drops are subsequently more easily evaporated as they move into drier air laterally or dry air mixes down from the SAL aloft. Research on aerosols also shows that the presence of small particles in air tends to suppress winds. The SAL has also been observed to suppress the development and intensifying of tropical cyclones, which may be related directly to these factors.[1]
The SAL is a subject of ongoing study and research."

El-Nino is overrated, this season just proved that and why pre season forecasts are all pretty much guess work. We need to stop trying to rely on if the season is going to be a El-Nino, Neutral, or La-Nina mentality and go with actual observation, real-time data, and look into other factors. SAL, ULL's, How the concentration of Arctic Ice is behaving, what the droughts are looking like in Texas, South America, if we had put that all into perspective before the season and not go based on data from the last 3 years one could have easily seen why this season wasn't going to be an active one. SST, Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential mean absolutely nothing if those other conditions aren't favorable.

Agreed. Hey Caleb! How have you been...How's the weather in your neck of the woods?
Quoting 589. yoboi:



it might help if ya refresh your latin research to show ya are wrong....


Greece isn't Latin. The ancient Greeks were the first people to estimate the size of the Earth, and sailors knew that the Earth had to be round, that's why ships' masts slowly disappear on the horizon, not drop off quickly like the Flat-Earthers would think.

One major inhibitor to science was and still is, religion. The Catholic Church was very stern on science, and tried to keep the science in the ground for a long while. Even today there are some people who claim creationism actually happened and that science doesn't work because it's a "human creation" and is "against God's will".

Our theories are purely observation. They change as our understanding and knowledge on science changes. Science doesn't change. It's fact. Our understanding of it, can and does change. Currently the best bet is that AGW is real and is occurring and we as a human race need to start looking towards solutions to the monumental problem that is beginning to show itself.
Quoting gulfbreeze:
YOU SHOULD BE BANNED JUST FOR POSTING ALL OF THIS BS!

It's very easy. Put people who seem to think they have some special knowledge and yet write like they they just pulled up from a bayou after failing fourth grade on ignore. You don't have to read it, he doesn't get the attention, and your blood pressure stays under much better control. :-)
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Sorry about the rant guys. You all have a goodnight, heading off to bed a little earlier than usual because I have an exam in the morning.

Good night, Caleb...good luck on your exam as well!
596. yoboi
Quoting 444. bappit:

Yoboi is spreading misinformation yet again. He is hoping people are ignorant of Eratosthenes who measured the circumference of the earth back around 240 BC. People thought Columbus was nuts because he based his plans on a gross underestimate of the earth's circumference and the people of the day knew he was wrong. Nevertheless, today we have the East Indies and West Indies because Columbus came back alive and proclaimed himself correct.


Misinformation???? I was just calling out the predictions this yr of record ice melt this yr in the artic....I said it would not be a record this yr 6 months ago...maybe it would be fair to direct that to the naples resident for the wrong prediction.....solar 25 explains it all to me....
Quoting 594. sar2401:

It's very easy. Put people who seem to think they have some special knowledge and yet write like they they just pulled up from a bayou after failing fourth grade on ignore. You don't have to read it, he doesn't get the attention, and your blood pressure stays under much better control. :-)






Hm. Looks like something would like to clock in in the BOC except this High over TX, again. But no dice:

598. yoboi
Quoting 593. Astrometeor:


Greece isn't Latin. The ancient Greeks were the first people to estimate the size of the Earth, and sailors knew that the Earth had to be round, that's why ships' masts slowly disappear on the horizon, not drop off quickly like the Flat-Earthers would think.

One major inhibitor to science was and still is, religion. The Catholic Church was very stern on science, and tried to keep the science in the ground for a long while. Even today there are some people who claim creationism actually happened and that science doesn't work because it's a "human creation" and is "against God's will".

Our theories are purely observation. They change as our understanding and knowledge on science changes. Science doesn't change. It's fact. Our understanding of it, can and does change. Currently the best bet is that AGW is real and is occurring and we as a human race need to start looking towards solutions to the monumental problem that is beginning to show itself.


can you please provide a link??? or links???
Kenny Heatley ‏@kennyheatleySKY 3m
Bass Strait and coastal Victoria seeing wind gusts over 160km/h(100mph), the equivalent of what you would see in Cat 2 cyclone @SkyWeatherAUS
Quoting yoboi:



it might help if ya refresh your latin research to show ya are wrong....

it might help if ya refresh your ability to link to anything from those two articles that show Latin research has anything from those two articles that shows he's wrong. I spent 12 years in Catholic school, so my knowledge of Latin is pretty good. Either that or you think poor grammar and writing like a fourth grade dropout from the bayou is just cute. I don't.
Quoting 598. yoboi:


can you please provide a link??? or links???


Start Here

The Catholic Church I believe today has a half-view on science. They won't shun you for it, but they will state that God is higher than science, and that in reality science is a product/effect of God. Or something like that, haven't read about it in a while.
Quoting yoboi:


can you please provide a link??? or links???

Look at Strabo here...or here...or most of his writings here. There were many other Greek geographers and sailors who knew the earth was spherical. I can provide more links, or you can use Google and not look quite as foolish next time.
Quoting 583. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Nah not really, you had 1887, 1933, and 1950. A season like these will come again eventually. Also, this season is like 1997 at least up to this point, did anyone think we would see a season like that again?
With an El niño or with a super El Niño of course but never in a neutral season,I really thought the tracks and the storms for 2013 will have been amazing but so far fail after fail.2008 and 2010 were the best and my favorite seasons to track,and even in those two season my country was hit directly by a tc something so rare to happen.
NSWIA Weather ‏@nswia_weather 2m
There are currently more than 50 bush and grass fires across New South Wales, 23 remain uncontained. Three emergency warnings are in place.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED SEP 25 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD BY THE WEEKEND...AND SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS
CONDUCIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&
Quoting 601. Astrometeor:


Start Here

The Catholic Church I believe today has a half-view on science. They won't shun you for it, but they will state that God is higher than science, and that in reality science is a product/effect of God. Or something like that, haven't read about it in a while.

As both a fledgling scientist and a Roman Catholic, I can say that nowadays, the Church is very accepting of science and even has put in resources for scientific study and how it relates to religion. A Catholic priest was actually the first person to propose the idea of the Big Bang.

In the past, there is no denying that the Church has had conflicts with science, but just like any other organization, the Church is led by people who are imperfect and make mistakes. Like I said, the Church is quite a bit more favorable towards science to say the least.
Quoting 564. StormTrackerScott:


& Patrap shouldn't post that most if not all on here don't have the attention span to read thru all of that.


Read through what???
Quoting 533. gulfbreeze:
You must be kidding Obamacare is the worst thing this country has ever come up with. But we do have a bunch of nuts that voted for this FOOL!!!

Yeah, the right-wing Heritage Foundation should never have dreamed up the scheme in the first place. ;)
Rates are about the same for store bought insurance.
Quoting Birthmark:

Yeah, the right-wing Heritage Foundation should never have dreamed up the scheme in the first place. ;)


NSW Incident Alerts - Weather
Another image of the Taree Fire from the Taree Service Centre before being evacuated.

Quoting Astrometeor:


Start Here

The Catholic Church I believe today has a half-view on science. They won't shun you for it, but they will state that God is higher than science, and that in reality science is a product/effect of God. Or something like that, haven't read about it in a while.

No, you are are quite wrong, Astro. Read the story of Galileo and his battles with the Spanish Inquisition. At least three of the popes who lived during Galileo's time and a number of prominent cardinals, natural philosophers themselves, were supporters of Galileo's theories. Much like the AGW battle raging today, there are two camps - one that believes that AGW is hypothetically true and another that believes that AGW is an unquestionably physical phenomenon not open to question. Galileo, known as a impulsive, threw in his lot with the second camp, and that was a direct challenge to the non-heliocentric views of the Church. This is what got him into trouble, although even his troubles were relatively minor for the times, since he was allowed to continue to do research and his writings were never banned.

One has to remember that the Church was everything in the 16th century, including the arbiter of science. Imagine that today, the IPPC, with Al Gore as the chief executive, was the sole arbiter on the question of AGW as absolute phenomenal truth. Do you think we might have a modern day version of the Inquisition for those who did not go along with the IPPC's view of AGW? It's absolutely vital we put things that happened 500 years ago in context rather than holding a body from that era to the standards of science we have today.
Quoting redwagon:






Hm. Looks like something would like to clock in in the BOC except this High over TX, again. But no dice:


I have never seen a time in late September where the Gulf and the entire Caribbean have been so full of dry air and a complete lack of convection. We are entering an almost unprecedented round of continuing troughs coming down from the north, bringing more fool, stable air. It looks like, except for very slight chance for a few thunderstorms next Friday, that SE Alabama will have very cool and dry air in place until at least October 5, and possibly October 10 if the next ridge holds and washes out and fronts. The supposed low for this weekend off the East Coast, if it occurs, will be baroclinic and so fart off the coast it will affect no one except some surfers. Unless something unexpected happens soon, it looks like the chances of a hurricane are approaching zero. A Gulf or SW Caribbean TC may still have a chance to from, but the high pressures, strong trades, and strong shear will keep any such storm weak and confined to the basin, away from land.

In 50 years of watching tropical storms, I've never seen a setup so clear that I'm willing to go out on a limb and say this season is a complete bust, I'm usually very conservative about things like this, but I am totally amazed with this year.
Since I'm going to bed in 5 minutes and am currently half-asleep, the 5 or 6 articles that I skimmed have all stated either The Church itself, or The Church through the Spanish Inquisition. Urban VIII was a friend at one point, then Galileo alienated him, and Galileo was convicted of heresy. One mentions that his writing called Dialogue was banned, but he was allowed to keep writing while under house arrest.

I've always been told that it was the Roman Church who gave Galileo the punishments, through all my history courses, and whatever else I stumbled upon.

Good night.



To stay on a weather topic^.
I have been tracking the ULL'S. Been a great season. LOL
Quoting sar2401:

I have never seen a time in late September where the Gulf and the entire Caribbean have been so full of dry air and a complete lack of convection. We are entering an almost unprecedented round of continuing troughs coming down from the north, bringing more fool, stable air. It looks like, except for very slight chance for a few thunderstorms next Friday, that SE Alabama will have very cool and dry air in place until at least October 5, and possibly October 10 if the next ridge holds and washes out and fronts. The supposed low for this weekend off the East Coast, if it occurs, will be baroclinic and so fart off the coast it will affect no one except some surfers. Unless something unexpected happens soon, it looks like the chances of a hurricane are approaching zero. A Gulf or SW Caribbean TC may still have a chance to from, but the high pressures, strong trades, and strong shear will keep any such storm weak and confined to the basin, away from land.

In 50 years of watching tropical storms, I've never seen a setup so clear that I'm willing to go out on a limb and say this season is a complete bust, I'm usually very conservative about things like this, but I am totally amazed with this year.
Quoting Astrometeor:
Since I'm going to bed in 5 minutes and am currently half-asleep, the 5 or 6 articles that I skimmed have all stated either The Church itself, or The Church through the Spanish Inquisition. Urban VIII was a friend at one point, then Galileo alienated him, and Galileo was convicted of heresy. One mentions that his writing called Dialogue was banned, but he was allowed to keep writing while under house arrest.

I've always been told that it was the Roman Church who gave Galileo the punishments, through all my history courses, and whatever else I stumbled upon.

Good night.



To stay on a weather topic^.

Good Night, Astro, I'm about head off myself, since this is about the slowest September 26 we'll eve see. The whole story of the Inquisition is on of intrigue, politics, power, and the search for truth. Very few schools ever have much time to teach about the complexities of the Dark Ages and how we emerged into the most enlightened time in the Western World. The easiest thing to teach is the Chruch was the only institution with absolute political power, and they did some evil things, hence the entire "Church was evil". If you live as long as I have, you may have time to do some more in-depth reading and find out it was more complicated than what appeared on the surface. You also have to remember this was directly after the Crusades, and the Church felt a special obligation to suppress what it viewed as heresy. Right or wrong, without the Church, a lot more of us today would be speaking Arabic than is the case.
Quoting 601. Astrometeor:



 but they will state that God is higher than science,
Isn't this pretty much true if you possess a Christian viewpoint? The going theory that comes a corollary of those beliefs is that God is the arbiter of creation, and this includes science. At the very least, he ordained us to have that knowledge.

Contrary to what some Christians think (though thankfully that number appears to be decreasing), science is not the antithesis of Christianity and everything Jesus Christ stood for. I no longer believe in any deities, but back when I did believe in that particular god, I held the view I postulated above; that for all intents and purposes, god is higher than science, but he allowed us to develop and cultivate the knowledge we have.

In short, if your axioms are formulated from a Christian worldview, god is higher than science.

Sorry for the off-topic post, mods.

Oh, and good night there, Nathan.
Quoting swflurker:
I have been tracking the ULL'S. Been a great season. LOL

Yes, if you like tracking ULL's, ghost storms, busted models, terrible path and intensity predictions, and storms so weak that many of them lasted less than a day, this has been a great season. :-)
Quoting KoritheMan:
Isn't this pretty much true if you possess a Christian viewpoint? The going theory that comes a corollary of those beliefs is that God is the arbiter of creation, and this includes science. At the very least, he ordained us to have that knowledge.

Contrary to what some Christians think (though thankfully that number appears to be decreasing), science is not the antithesis of Christianity and everything Jesus Christ stood for. I no longer believe in any deities, but back when I did believe in that particular god, I held the view I postulated above; that for all intents and purposes, god is higher than science, but he allowed us to develop and cultivate the knowledge we have.

In short, if your axioms are formulated from a Christian worldview, god is higher than science.

Sorry for the off-topic post, mods.

Oh, and good night there, Nathan.
\
Of course God is higher that science - He created science. That has nothing to do with endowing men with the brainpower and free will to attempt to discover scientific truth. We have been doing it since the first man picked up a part of tree that had been struck by lightning and said "Hey, what's this hot stuff". Man has had the ability to discover what he believed to be true ("Miasma causes malaria") to what man now knows to be true ("The plasmodium of the Anopheles mosquito causes malaria"). God gives us no special powers to make discoveries in science but also puts no obstacles in our path. The parts of science that turn out to be true were always known to God - it's just up to us, using our God-given brain power and curiosity, to figure out. One is certainly free to believe that God will take care of everything so science is irrelevant, but I can find nothing in the Word of God that says that is the way all believers should act.
Question for the wise.

Does "unspent" thermal energy stored in the Atlantic Basin remain broadly there for the next year, or does is it transported away, either through the atmosphere or via oceanic circulation?

Quoting 618. sar2401:
\
Of course God is higher that science - He created science. That has nothing to do with endowing men with the brainpower and free will to attempt to discover scientific truth. We have been doing it since the first man picked up a part of tree that had been struck by lightning and said "Hey, what's this hot stuff". Man has had the ability to discover what he believed to be true ("Miasma causes malaria") to what man now knows to be true ("The plasmodium of the Anopheles mosquito causes malaria"). God gives us no special powers to make discoveries in science but also puts no obstacles in our path. The parts of science that turn out to be true were always known to God - it's just up to us, using our God-given brain power and curiosity, to figure out. One is certainly free to believe that God will take care of everything so science is irrelevant, but I can find nothing in the Word of God that says that is the way all believers should act.
Maybe I misspoke. I didn't mean that god gave us "special powers", but just by nature of being creatures capable of logical and abstract thought, he had a direct in hand in our ability to gain knowledge. He created us with the ability to furnish critical thinking, so in a sense, he is responsible. Not so much that he instilled us with special powers, so much that our very nature to reason and be objective is kind of a corollary response.

I hope that made a little more sense...

Quoting 619. chimera245:
Question for the wise.

Does "unspent" thermal energy stored in the Atlantic Basin remain broadly there for the next year, or does is it transported away, either through the atmosphere or via oceanic circulation?

I haven't studied it extensively, but I've always assumed it was a combination of both atmospheric and oceanic circulation processes. In this case, the atmospheric trigger would probably be winter storms.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25
15:00 PM JST September 26 2013
======================================

South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 15.0N 118.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 15.1N 116.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #57
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM PABUK (T1320)
15:00 PM JST September 26 2013
======================================

Sea East Of Japan

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Pabuk (970 hPa) located at 33.8N 145.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 21 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
90 NM from the center in east quadrant
60 NM from the center in west quadrant

Gale Force Winds
==================
240 NM from the center in east quadrant
210 NM from the center in west quadrant

Dvorak intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 42.2N 154.8E - Extratropical Low Sea Far East Of Japan
623. MPI88
Quoting 619. chimera245:
Question for the wise.

Does "unspent" thermal energy stored in the Atlantic Basin remain broadly there for the next year, or does is it transported away, either through the atmosphere or via oceanic circulation?



Although there appears to be; there is no such thing as "unspent energy".

It's an energy balance with a time dependent tipping point. Compare it to a large pool that varies in size by the seasons (or weeks, or days). Water evaporates by time (transport). However, if there is way too much water (energy) the pool overflows (storm).

Back to the original question; does it stay? Well, a bit might stay, depending on the winter season.
Unless my memory fails me, this looks like the greatest concentration of moisture that we've seen in the Central Atlantic this entire season. It's protecting what is at its center too, at least for now.



I would not discount the possibility that Ma Nature is planning a 21 gun salute for sun grazing comet ISON, which is coming in from a rare point of origin.

After all, this comet was discovered on the anniversary of Hurricane Hugo.

All hail, comet ISON:

The Mars flyby comes at a key time in Comet ISONs journey. It will have just crossed the "frost line," a place just outside the orbit of Mars where solar heating is enough to start vaporizing frozen water.







I just perused the posts from last evening. A mish-mosh of religion vs science with AGW, politics and Obamacare thrown in. Now I've got a headache.
Quoting 616. KoritheMan:
Isn't this pretty much true if you possess a Christian viewpoint? The going theory that comes a corollary of those beliefs is that God is the arbiter of creation, and this includes science. At the very least, he ordained us to have that knowledge.

Contrary to what some Christians think (though thankfully that number appears to be decreasing), science is not the antithesis of Christianity and everything Jesus Christ stood for. I no longer believe in any deities, but back when I did believe in that particular god, I held the view I postulated above; that for all intents and purposes, god is higher than science, but he allowed us to develop and cultivate the knowledge we have.

In short, if your axioms are formulated from a Christian worldview, god is higher than science.

Sorry for the off-topic post, mods.

Oh, and good night there, Nathan.
The interesting thing is that even 50 years ago the position of church vs science was not in any way mainstream. It's interesting to read kid's adventure literature from about 1960 where science is clearly presented as man's way of discovering and understanding the greatness of God's creation. In this view science is a tool, not a quasi-religious belief. As a result the writers were able to embrace each fully in its appropriate context. This was very much an accepted way of thinking in educated circles during the much of the 1800s and early 1900s.

I think the problem comes when people try to use science to prove or disprove God. Some people look at scientific findings and can't reconcile those findings [i.e. that way of interpreting the world] with what is found in the Bible. As a result, they conclude either that a) God doesn't exist or b) science is anti-God.

However, I've never been able to understand why people assume that God is limited to their own understanding. There's a reason why the Judeo-Christian name of God is simply "I AM". I say, start by recognising that science cannot contain or explain God. Then you can enjoy your understanding of the physical processes of the world.
Quoting 622. HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25
15:00 PM JST September 26 2013
======================================

24 HRS: 15.1N 116.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #57
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM PABUK (T1320)
15:00 PM JST September 26 2013
======================================
You know, the way the WPac has been churning them out lately, I'm starting to think we may end up with a bit more activity in October than we are expecting...
629. JRRP





That area of thunderstorms (tw?) approaching the lesser Antilles is looking better this morning. Also note the blow up of convection of the south american coast.
631. JRRP
does not look suppressed this morning cmc was sniffing something in the sw carib a few days ago. here comes the convection
Quoting 632. islander101010:
does not look suppressed this morning cmc was sniffing something in the sw carib a few days ago. here comes the convection
We live in hopes... unfortunately it looks like the convection won't be widespread enough to impact the Leewards in any serious way...

I'm out for the morning. Ya'll have a good day!
634. JRRP
Quoting 627. BahaHurican:
The interesting thing is that even 50 years ago the position of church vs science was not in any way mainstream. It's interesting to read kid's adventure literature from about 1960 where science is clearly presented as man's way of discovering and understanding the greatness of God's creation. In this view science is a tool, not a quasi-religious belief. As a result the writers were able to embrace each fully in its appropriate context. This was very much an accepted way of thinking in educated circles during the much of the 1800s and early 1900s.

I think the problem comes when people try to use science to prove or disprove God. Some people look at scientific findings and can't reconcile those findings [i.e. that way of interpreting the world] with what is found in the Bible. As a result, they conclude either that a) God doesn't exist or b) science is anti-God.

However, I've never been able to understand why people assume that God is limited to their own understanding. There's a reason why the Judeo-Christian name of God is simply "I AM". I say, start by recognising that science cannot contain or explain God. Then you can enjoy your understanding of the physical processes of the world.
Science isn't anti-God any more than it's anti-leprechaun or anti-dragon or anti-mermaid. Religion asks people to accept things on faith--the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen--and that's fine. But science demands a substantially higher standard for support. Science didn't set out to "kill" God; rather, science has merely sought to find the reason things in the physical realm are as they are, and has--so far at least--failed to find a single verifiable shred of evidence of His existence. It may do that someday, but it hasn't happened yet.
636. beell
A snippet from the Caribbean Forecast Desk describing general synoptics over the Caribbean this weekend. The discussion is from yesterday but still valid per the 06Z GFS. At the very least, increasing moisture and lowered pressures over a broad area of the Caribbean.

An impending blob watch.


TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
224 PM EDT WED SEP 25 2013


...ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...PATTERN IS GRADUALLY CHANGING FROM A
CURRENTLY DRY ONE INTO A WETTER ONE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEKEND

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER
POLAR TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN COAST OF THE USA
INTO THE BAHAMAS.
DEEPENING TROUGH WILL SLOWLY ERODE CURRENTLY STRONG MID-LEVEL
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. AS TROUGH
DEEPENS...IT WILL ENTER IN PHASE AND INTERACT WITH TROUGH ACROSS
SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS WILL INDUCE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE
FALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE
. THE SURGE WILL TRANSPORT DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY FROM CENTRAL VENEZUELA INTO
THE ABC/GUAJIRA PENINSULA AND THEN JAMAICA/HAITI/EASTERN CUBA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...



09/26 06Z GFS 700 mb heights, RH. Valid Sunday, 15Z
A bit of a look at the phasing of the inverted trough over the Caribbean and the mid latitude trough off the US east coast


09/26 06Z TAFB 72 hr Surface Forecast. Valid 00Z 09/29

And let's throw in a tropical wave forecast to be along 80W in approximately 72 hrs.
637. VR46L
Quoting 635. Neapolitan:
Science isn't anti-God any more than it's anti-leprechaun or anti-dragon or anti-mermaid. Religion asks people to accept things on faith--the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen--and that's fine. But science demands a substantially higher standard for support. Science didn't set out to "kill" God; rather, science has merely sought to find the reason things in the physical realm are as they are, and has--so far at least--failed to find a single verifiable shred of evidence of His existence. It may do that someday, but it hasn't happened yet.


Huh Banging the atheist drum again . Oh well ! Each to their own ... but I think there is alot of people of some kind of faith reading your attack ,and may not be happy with it ... I think you would have a more successful approach if you had sugar rather than vinegar in your wording Jusr sayin.....
Quoting 634. JRRP:


The GFS has been very consistent of developing TS activity after the 200hr mark near our area PR for the last couple of days.
Pubak is a RARE example of a tropical storm with an eye:

Quoting 625. LargoFl:





FINALLY drying out!!!
GFS now shows a weaker nor'easter than before, at 117 hours.

348 hours out "fantasy land"

Tropical storm in the ATL.

Quoting 636. beell:
A snippet from the Caribbean Forecast Desk describing general synoptics over the Caribbean this weekend. The discussion is from yesterday but still valid per the 06Z GFS. At the very least, increasing moisture and lowered pressures over a broad area of the Caribbean.

An impending blob watch.


TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
224 PM EDT WED SEP 25 2013


...ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...PATTERN IS GRADUALLY CHANGING FROM A
CURRENTLY DRY ONE INTO A WETTER ONE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEKEND

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER
POLAR TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN COAST OF THE USA
INTO THE BAHAMAS.
DEEPENING TROUGH WILL SLOWLY ERODE CURRENTLY STRONG MID-LEVEL
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. AS TROUGH
DEEPENS...IT WILL ENTER IN PHASE AND INTERACT WITH TROUGH ACROSS
SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS WILL INDUCE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE
FALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE
. THE SURGE WILL TRANSPORT DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY FROM CENTRAL VENEZUELA INTO
THE ABC/GUAJIRA PENINSULA AND THEN JAMAICA/HAITI/EASTERN CUBA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...



09/26 06Z GFS 700 mb heights, RH. Valid Sunday, 15Z
A bit of a look at the phasing of the inverted trough over the Caribbean and the mid latitude trough off the US east coast


09/26 06Z TAFB 72 hr Surface Forecast. Valid 00Z 09/29

And let's throw in a tropical wave forecast to be along 80W in approximately 72 hrs.


Interesting pattern shaping up that may be a precursor of development in Caribbean. It will be something to watch.
644. beell
Quoting 635. Neapolitan:
Science isn't anti-God any more than it's anti-leprechaun or anti-dragon or anti-mermaid. Religion asks people to accept things on faith--the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen--and that's fine. But science demands a substantially higher standard for support. Science didn't set out to "kill" God; rather, science has merely sought to find the reason things in the physical realm are as they are, and has--so far at least--failed to find a single verifiable shred of evidence of His existence. It may do that someday, but it hasn't happened yet.


Science, being a man made construct, will never find any existence of God. Some folks are okay with that.
645. VR46L
Quoting 644. beell:


Science, being a man made construct, will never find any existence of God. Some folks are okay with that.


Even Quite a few scientists are ...
646. beell
Quoting 645. VR46L:


Even Quite a few scientists are ...


Of course, some will say belief in God is man-made as well.

:)
Quoting 644. beell:


Science, being a man made construct, will never find any existence of God. Some folks are okay with that.

I normally don't comment on these matters because it can be contentious, but Acts 1:20 clearly addresses both of these comments. When things are proved, than faith is not required and God "in accordance with the Bible" desires that men walk by faith not by sight.
648. beell
Quoting 643. Tropicsweatherpr:


Interesting pattern shaping up that may be a precursor of development in Caribbean. It will be something to watch.


At least some rain for the Greater Antilles.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Interesting pattern shaping up that may be a precursor of development in Caribbean. It will be something to watch.
I wonder if the wave at 40w, 10N, would gain some respect from NHC to at least be mention, since it is looking kind of interesting....
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
On a different note, what do you guys think of the convection burst in the southern Caribbean and the large cloud cluster east of the Antilles?
Quoting 637. VR46L:


Huh Banging the atheist drum again . Oh well ! Each to their own ... but I think there is alot of people of some kind of faith reading your attack ,and may not be happy with it ... I think you would have a more successful approach if you had sugar rather than vinegar in your wording Jusr sayin.....
An "attack"? Seriously? I merely stated a few well-known facts. One would have to be very thin-skinned--and of suspiciously insecure faith--to misconstrue anything I wrote as "an attack".

At any rate, "attacking" religion or the religious wasn't my goal; I was only explaining, as many others have before me, that science relies on evidence, and religion doesn't, so they operate in two entirely different frameworks...
Quoting 652. Neapolitan:
An "attack"? Seriously? I merely stated a few well-known facts. One would have to be very thin-skinned--and of suspiciously insecure faith--to misconstrue anything I wrote as "an attack".

"Attacking" religion or the religious wasn't my goal; I was only explaining, as many others have before me, that science relies on evidence, and religion doesn't, so they operate in two entirely different frameworks...



religion relies on faith, but faith doesnt rely on religion
Quoting HuracandelCaribe:


The GFS has been very consistent of developing TS activity after the 200hr mark near our area PR for the last couple of days.
That's early October, we had a big tragedy(Mameeyes) in a month of October 28 years ago, from the weak TS Isabel,Oct.7,1985, coming from the South.....