In the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico, a stalled stationary front is bringing heavy thunderstorms to west-central Florida, where heavy rains of up to six inches have caused flooding problems. A weak area of low pressure along this front will move over the coastal waters several hundred miles offshore of North Carolina by Friday, when an extratropical storm is expected to develop. Ocean temperatures off the North Carolina coast are 26 - 27°C, which is warm enough to help give the storm some extra energy and moisture. However, wind shear will be high, and this storm is expected to stay non-tropical as it heads north-northeast, potentially bringing rainy weather to New England and the Canadian Maritime Provinces on Sunday and Monday. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave no odds that anything tropical would spin up in the next five days. None of the reliable computer models for tropical cyclone genesis predicts development over the next five days, and the Atlantic is dominated by dry air and high wind shear. The next area to watch for development might be the Western Caribbean or the area between the Bahamas and Bermuda next week. However, chances of development will be below average for this time of year, due the fact we are in the suppressed phase of the MJO. This suppressed phase may end by mid-October, increasing the odds of development in about two weeks' time. Figure 1.
All quiet in the Atlantic: The Atlantic remains welcomely quiet at 8:15 am EDT on September 25, 2013, with an unusual lack of heavy thunderstorm activity for this time of year. Image credit: NOAA.Join me in New York City on Thursday for Climate Week
I write a lot about billion-dollar weather disasters like Hurricane Sandy, the coming great climate disruption, and other "doom-and-gloom" topics. These are important to discuss, but too much talk of disaster can turn people off and make them feel hopeless. Social science research shows that including a positive message along with your science will make people more inclined to believe your science, and it is important to emphasize some of the remarkable solutions on how we can lessen and adapt to climate change that technology and entrepreneurship are coming up with. This Thursday afternoon, I am moderating a panel discussion in New York City on some innovative ways to combat climate change. It's part of Climate Week,
which culminates Friday with the release of the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, which is released only once every six years. You can register to attend Thursday's free event here.
The session begins at 2 pm with remarks by David Kenny, CEO of The Weather Company, followed by guest speaker Mayor Bloomberg. My "New Frontiers" panel is at 5:40 pm.