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95L Remains Unorganized in the Gulf of Mexico

By: shauntanner 6:15 PM GMT on September 20, 2013

Invest 95L, located in the southwest Gulf of Mexico, is around 100 miles east of Tampico, Mexico Friday morning and is struggling to organize based on satellite imagery. Visible satellite shows the strongest thunderstorm activity has been displaced to the south of what would be the center of circulation. Only a few thunderstorms are associated with this disturbance currently, with the strongest of these on the southern and eastern edges.


Satellite image showing Invest 95L and a lack of thunderstorm development

The National Hurricane Center has decreased the likelihood of 95L developing over the next two days from 70% on Thursday to 30% heading into the weekend.  Some models suggest this disturbance could track north toward the Texas coast, where it could strengthen. This northward jog would be guided by a cold front that is forecast to track across the U.S over the weekend.  Regardless whether this disturbance develops, significant rain is expected from southern Texas through much of the Southeast as it will couple with the aforementioned cold front to draw considerable moisture northward. Upwards of 5 inches of rain (see image below) could fall along coastal areas from Texas through Mississippi even if the disturbance does not develop.


WPC forecast showing the QPF forecast for Friday through Monday.  Note the significant rain expected through the Southeast due to the combination of the tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico and a cold front moving through the eastern U.S.


Model tracks showing some possible paths of Invest 95L

Super Typhoon Usagi

Usagi maintained Super Typhoon strength on its path just south Taiwan and north of Philippines.  With a wind strength of 150 mph, Usagi is taking a reasonably good path as the official forecast takes the typhoon into the South China Sea and weakens it into a Category 2 storm before eventual landfall near Shenzen on Sunday.  This will still be a strong storm with the capability of doing considerable damage and significant flooding.


Tracking map of Super Typhoon Usagi.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Hmmm, hot off the press. It appears the forecasted precip within the next 2 days has gone down for my area. Which I am thrilled with...but call me skeptical. Seeing the front move so slowly, and given some of the numbers that have been racked up so far, I'm not sure I quite believe this forecast.

and the threat of an El Nino suppressed Atlantic next year may turn us all on this blog into lemmings to cliffs from now till June 2015, lol, rofl, lmao :)
Quoting 490. NWwaterlogged:

10 days past the mid point of the "calendar" season and peeps are jumping off cliffs faster than a lemming migration.

Back side of the peak has a grander hump.
What's wrong with this image from the CIMSS???



Answer: Where is TY Usagi??

Quoting 501. LAbonbon:
Which I am thrilled with

You would be. :)
Even inactive years like 1977, 1983, 1992, gave us Anita, Alicia, and Andrew to follow and track, respectively.

Quoting 505. lobdelse81:
Even inactive years like 1977, 1983, 1992, gave us Anita, Alicia, and Andrew to follow and track, respectively.
I'm just astonished that a warm AMO non El-Nino year can be this inactive. Even 1997 saw more hurricane and major hurricane days by this point, because well, we... already had a major. >_>
Quoting 504. KoritheMan:

You would be. :)


:D


Seriously, though, some of the totals are high. NE TX/SW Arkansas, and SW LA are 6+. Moss Bluff (N of Lake Charles) has been reported at 10+ in, and according to this they're at 12 in.

Now that is just too much, IMHO. Except perhaps for the diehard rain-loving Texans here...
Good evening folks (or early morning),

Just popping in before i wander off bed. See that y'all in LA are getting dumped on. Kori, LAbonbon - are your heads still above water?

See, that for the next couple of weeks its gonna be a bit slow tropical-wise. This front seems to have dropped low enough for long enough that it will scour out all moisture from the Gulf. MJO looks to be stuck in the WPAC, and not return to the ATL until the second week of October. Slow days ahead.

Gonna be fun around here. :)
Good late night or early morning everyone
I was sleeping but....

I got nailed by a jellyfish late yesterday afternoon at the beach and I guess it's the side affects happening now with the itching.

Geez, I had the fire ants last week, jellyfish this week...I hate to see what's next!

Lindy
Quoting 508. daddyjames:
Good evening folks (or early morning),

Just popping in before i wander off bed. See that y'all in LA are getting dumped on. Kori, LAbonbon - are your heads still above water?

See, that for the next couple of weeks its gonna be a bit slow tropical-wise. This front seems to have dropped low enough for long enough that it will scour out all moisture from the Gulf. MJO looks to be stuck in the WPAC, and not return to the ATL until the second week of October. Slow days ahead.

Gonna be fun around here. :)


Good evening, DJ. It just started raining here (finally!) in the last couple of minutes.

Did you happen to read the post at 252? Explains the scenario we're facing over the next several days.

MJO? LOL-above my pay grade. Not there yet :P

Slow tropics works just fine for me...plenty of other weather goes on to keep me happy.
Quoting 510. VirginIslandsVisitor:
I was sleeping but....

I got nailed by a jellyfish late yesterday afternoon at the beach and I guess it's the side affects happening now with the itching.

Geez, I had the fire ants last week, jellyfish this week...I hate to see what's next!

Lindy


Bummer! Gotta ask - which is worse?
Quoting 510. VirginIslandsVisitor:
I was sleeping but....

I got nailed by a jellyfish late yesterday afternoon at the beach and I guess it's the side affects happening now with the itching.

Geez, I had the fire ants last week, jellyfish this week...I hate to see what's next!

Lindy


Lindy,

Sorry to hear about that - nature has not been kind to you lately.

Quoting 510. VirginIslandsVisitor:
I was sleeping but....

I got nailed by a jellyfish late yesterday afternoon at the beach and I guess it's the side affects happening now with the itching.

Geez, I had the fire ants last week, jellyfish this week...I hate to see what's next!

Lindy
I was stung by a jellyfish when I was in Orange Beach, Alabama once. I think I was 9. It wasn't a pleasant experience.
Quoting 513. daddyjames:


Lindy,

Sorry to hear about that - nature has not been kind to you lately.


All I can do is laugh right now.

And really, I'm thinking I'm NOT going fishing next week! (Sharks come to mind...LOL)

Quoting 508. daddyjames:
Good evening folks (or early morning),

Just popping in before i wander off bed. See that y'all in LA are getting dumped on. Kori, LAbonbon - are your heads still above water?

See, that for the next couple of weeks its gonna be a bit slow tropical-wise. This front seems to have dropped low enough for long enough that it will scour out all moisture from the Gulf. MJO looks to be stuck in the WPAC, and not return to the ATL until the second week of October. Slow days ahead.

Gonna be fun around here. :)
Just started raining here now, actually.

Wow, you can really tell how literally... right next to each other me and Bonnie are. Even I'm getting astonished!
Quoting 511. LAbonbon:


Good evening, DJ. It just started raining here (finally!) in the last couple of minutes.

Did you happen to read the post at 252? Explains the scenario we're facing over the next several days.

MJO? LOL-above my pay grade. Not there yet :P

Slow tropics works just fine for me...plenty of other weather goes on to keep me happy.


BRB - going to see #252.

MJO - Madden-Julian Oscillation- basically an area of instability or enhanced lift in the tropical atmosphere that propagates west to east around the globe. Enhances convection - not that you guys need that at the moment.
Quoting 514. KoritheMan:

I was stung by a jellyfish when I was in Orange Beach, Alabama once. I think I was 9. It wasn't a pleasant experience.


No, it's not pleasant thing. Someone asked me what it felt like and I told them was like getting an electrical shock. It's instant. The minute they hit you, you feel it.
Quoting 515. VirginIslandsVisitor:


All I can do is laugh right now.

And really, I'm thinking I'm NOT going fishing next week! (Sharks come to mind...LOL)


Quit while you're ahead right?
Quoting 507. LAbonbon:


:D


Seriously, though, some of the totals are high. NE TX/SW Arkansas, and SW LA are 6 . Moss Bluff (N of Lake Charles) has been reported at 10 in, and according to this they're at 12 in.

Now that is just too much, IMHO. Except perhaps for the diehard rain-loving Texans here...
Rain doesn't particularly interest me unless it's wind-driven, anyway. Gotta love that wind action to addle things. ;)

Actually, having to work in it all the time, I find rainfall extremely annoying most of the time. I had two pairs of shoes in my aunt's vehicle the other day (we ride together until I can get another car in a few months), and I literally was unable to avoid encapsulating both pairs with inordinate amounts of water.

When I flooded my first pair, I thought "oh hey, I forgot about my other pair." A minute later, I fall victim to that same puddle of standing water in the parking lot. I was infuriated at that point. >_>
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #43
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON USAGI (T1319)
15:00 PM JST September 21 2013
======================================

Bashi Channel

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Usagi (925 hPa) located at 20.8N 120.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Storm Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
240 NM from the center

Dvorak intensity: T5.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 21.6N 117.0E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Northern South China Sea
48 HRS: 23.1N 112.2E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Overland Southern China
72 HRS: 23.1N 108.8E - Tropical Depression Overland Southern China
Quoting 517. daddyjames:


BRB - going to see #252.

MJO - Madden-Julian Oscillation- basically an area of instability or enhanced lift in the tropical atmosphere that propagates west to east around the globe. Enhances convection - not that you guys need that at the moment.


Thanks DJ. Now, just so you know I'm not totally clueless, I know what it is, and theoretically what it does. I just don't feel I know nearly enough to start hypothesizing about it and the dearth of expected tropical storms in the Atlantic.

But...I thought the MJO mattered less the further in the season it is? See, I don't know enough to discuss...not yet anyway!
Quoting 512. LAbonbon:


Bummer! Gotta ask - which is worse?


I KNEW someone was going to ask that question.

Honestly, they're on the same level for me. The only difference is the timing of pain. The ants have a two-second delay.

*rolling my eyes*
4.77" over the last 2 days and I think I'm done. Front got close to me and stepped on the gas.

Ah, the good 'ol emergency alert system, advertising areal flood advisories. I guess this is the closest I'm gonna get to an actual landfalling tropical cyclone all year.

Of course, said alert could have been a little better if there was the mention of inland tropical storm or hurricane warnings, and the opening of local storm shelters for anyone that might need them.

Ah yes, those were the days with Gustav. Wait, I mean what? Uh, yeah, let's just uh... let's just forget I said that!

:P
Quoting 523. VirginIslandsVisitor:


I KNEW someone was going to ask that question.

Honestly, they're on the same level for me. The only difference is the timing of pain. The ants have a two-second delay.

*rolling my eyes*


Sorry for prying! I've experienced fire ants, but not jellyfish.
Quoting 524. AtHomeInTX:
4.77" over the last 2 days and I think I'm done. Front got close to me and stepped on the gas.



I'm so glad some of you are getting rain. It's been way overdue!
Quoting 522. LAbonbon:


Thanks DJ. Now, just so you know I'm not totally clueless, I know what it is, and theoretically what it does. I just don't feel I know nearly enough to start hypothesizing about it and the dearth of expected tropical storms in the Atlantic.

But...I thought the MJO mattered less the further in the season it is? See, I don't know enough to discuss...not yet anyway!


Kori would better be able to answer whether or not the MJO provides enough lift to get things rollicking in October. Sorry if I may have offended you in any way, not my intention.

I think the combination of the front hanging out, and lack of MJO will end up reducing any chances of something developing - unless a cutoff low should happen to spin off one of the fronts.

Kori - what are your thoughts about MJO in October?
Quoting 526. LAbonbon:


Sorry for prying! I've experienced fire ants, but not jellyfish.


Please don't get me wrong. I wasn't rolling my eyes at you but myself!! It's getting to be a joke with me.

Just like the fire ants, you don't feel the jellyfish. All you get is that instant burn and horrible itching feeling.
Quoting 526. LAbonbon:


Sorry for prying! I've experienced fire ants, but not jellyfish.


Imagine fire ants but - well depending on the jellyfish - 10x more painful, and it burns.

Was it jelly fish or Man-O-War - do you get those down there in the VI?
Quoting 527. VirginIslandsVisitor:


I'm so glad some of you are getting rain. It's been way overdue!


Thanks. Seems we did ok around here pretty much slow and steady beneficial rain. It has been so nice! Sorry about the ants and jelly fish. Never felt a jelly fish sting but I know the ants hurt.
Quoting 528. daddyjames:


Kori would better be able to answer whether or not the MJO provides enough lift to get things rollicking in October. Sorry if I may have offended you in any way, not my intention.

I think the combination of the front hanging out, and lack of MJO will end up reducing any chances of something developing - unless a cutoff low should happen to spin off one of the fronts.

Kori - what are your thoughts abut MJO in October?


I'm not offended at all. I guess a better way to state it is I don't feel confident to discuss it yet. I'm perfectly confident in certain areas, but the higher-end TC stuff? I've got a ways to go.

And if I don't know an acronym, I try and find it; failing that, I'll do a shout out to the blog ;)
Quoting 532. LAbonbon:


I'm not offended at all. I guess a better way to state it is I don't feel confident to discuss it yet. I'm perfectly confident in certain areas, but the higher-end TC stuff? I've got a ways to go.

And if I don't know an acronym, I try and find it; failing that, I'll do a shout out to the blog ;)


I was hoping that I hadn't, and glad that was true :)

Quoting 528. daddyjames:


Kori would better be able to answer whether or not the MJO provides enough lift to get things rollicking in October. Sorry if I may have offended you in any way, not my intention.

I think the combination of the front hanging out, and lack of MJO will end up reducing any chances of something developing - unless a cutoff low should happen to spin off one of the fronts.

Kori - what are your thoughts about MJO in October?
I think the idea that the MJO becomes less relevant during the peak season is generally accurate; this year was a notable exception, because the airmass over the tropical Atlantic was just that stable. Usually there's enough instability to generate tropical cyclones ad nauseum during August and September, provided the environment isn't too stable and the vertical shear cooperates.

So to answer your question, I think the MJO becomes more prominent during the late season as well, just as it is during the early season. It's probably still not as important in October as it is in May or June, where it's almost impossible to have a storm without the upward MJO, but it's still extremely relevant; the western Atlantic tends to dry out quickly during the fall transition season as cold fronts become more climatologically frequent. Taking that mechanism into account, along with the annual migration of the ITCZ toward the equator, the MJO's assistance is very much needed during October.

That actually raises a rather interesting question in regards to which area of the world the MJO was most present in whenever there were October major hurricanes within the western Atlantic (Gulf, Caribbean, or Bahamas) region. Perhaps I shall look that up.
DJ (or any other blogger/lurker) - did you happen to see SAR's blog about radar sites that are down?
Quoting 534. KoritheMan:

I think the idea that the MJO becomes less relevant during the peak season is generally accurate; this year was a notable exception, because the airmass over the tropical Atlantic was just that stable. Usually there's enough instability to generate tropical cyclones ad nauseum during August and September, provided the environment isn't too stable and the vertical shear cooperates.

So to answer your question, I think the MJO becomes more prominent during the late season as well, just as it is during the early season. It's probably still not as important in October as it is in May or June, where it's almost impossible to have a storm without the upward MJO, but it's still extremely relevant; the western Atlantic tends to dry out quickly during the fall transition season as cold fronts become more climatologically frequent. Taking that mechanism into account, along with the annual migration of the ITCZ toward the equator, the MJO's assistance is very much needed during October.

That actually raises a rather interesting question in regards to which area of the world the MJO was most present in whenever there were October major hurricanes within the western Atlantic (Gulf, Caribbean, or Bahamas) region. Perhaps I shall look that up.


That would be interesting to know. See that the ITCZ is pretty low in the Mid-ATL, but the Monsoon trough seems to be displaced high to the north - southern Mexcio (no surprise given the recent weather).

Wonder if they may also play a role. i know that the Monsoon trough is generally more prevalent in aiding EPAC systems, but . . . - just thinking out loud.
Quoting 530. daddyjames:


Imagine fire ants but - well depending on the jellyfish - 10x more painful, and it burns.

Was it jelly fish or Man-O-War - do you get those down there in the VI?


I actually just read up on that the other day. It seems that St. Croix gets the Man-O-War more frequently due to a certain water current they have over there. Personally I've never seen one. We get the jellyfish. I was told today that there are jellyfish warnings posted on some of the beaches on the north side of St. Thomas right now but I was totally unaware of it.

I was so glad I was holding the grandbaby with my right arm. I got hit on the left. Some really great tourists helped me out with the baby so I could look after myself.
Quoting 535. LAbonbon:
DJ (or any other blogger/lurker) - did you happen to see SAR's blog about radar sites that are down?


Yes. But not sure where you are going with this.

Quoting 536. daddyjames:


That would be interesting to know. See that the ITCZ is pretty low in the Mid-ATL, but the Monsoon trough seems to be displaced high to the north - southern Mexcio (no surprise given the recent weather).

Wonder if they may also play a role. i know that the Monsoon trough is generally more prevalent in aiding EPAC systems, but . . . - just thinking out loud.
The monsoon trough is actually much more beneficial to tropical cyclogenesis than the ITCZ; perhaps I shouldn't have been so general, lol.

The ITCZ certainly helps, but the monsoon trough is a truly cyclonic feature, while the ITCZ is more uniform.

The monsoon trough typically features a southwest to northeast low-level wind fetch, while the ITCZ tends to feature a southeast to northeast low-level wind fetch. The former favors low-level convergence, which helps to promote spin. That's not as easily accessible in the ITCZ since the flow is generally easterly.

Incidentally, the monsoon trough also plays a rather large role in early and late season development when the ITCZ is farther south.
Quoting 538. daddyjames:


Yes. But not sure where you are going with this.


Should have expanded my thoughts. Is it normal, do you know, for a bunch to be down at once, or it an unusual occurrence? I know of one other time this summer that Sar was frustrated by this.

I know nada about the radar systems...
Quoting 537. VirginIslandsVisitor:


I actually just read up on that the other day. It seems that St. Croix gets the Man-O-War more frequently due to a certain water current they have over there. Personally I've never seen one. We get the jellyfish. I was told today that there are jellyfish warnings posted on some of the beaches on the north side of St. Thomas right now but I was totally unaware of it.

I was so glad I was holding the grandbaby with my right arm. I got hit on the left. Some really great tourists helped me out with the baby so I could look after myself.


Wow - lucky you. Nothing personal, but that would have really sucked for the little one.

Huh, we get them all the time on the East Coast of Florida. Hurts like a . . . . (fill in with your favorite colorful phrase). Maybe you're protected by the wind/current patterns? or the islands on the Atlantic side - you are on St. Thomas, correct?
Quoting 540. LAbonbon:


Should have expanded my thoughts. Is it normal, do you know, for a bunch to be down at once, or it an unusual occurrence? I know of one other time this summer that Sar was frustrated by this.

I know nada about the radar systems...


The radar site in his immediate area was recently upgraded - but apparently has had issues, as sar has mentioned on several occasions that it is down.
Quoting 541. daddyjames:


Wow - lucky you. Nothing personal, but that would have really sucked for the little one.

Huh, we get them all the time on the East Coast of Florida. Hurts like a . . . . (fill in with your favorite colorful phrase). Maybe you're protected by the wind/current patterns? or the islands on the Atlantic side - you are on St. Thomas, correct?


Oh, believe me. The words coming out of my mouth shocked myself!

The north side of St. Thomas is the Atlantic and the south side (my side) is the Caribbean.

The area north of Moss Bluff (north of Lake Charles) is now showing 14-16 in.

Link
Quoting 539. KoritheMan:

The monsoon trough is actually much more beneficial to tropical cyclogenesis than the ITCZ; perhaps I shouldn't have been so general, lol.

The ITCZ certainly helps, but the monsoon trough is a truly cyclonic feature, while the ITCZ is more uniform.

The monsoon trough typically features a southwest to northeast low-level wind fetch, while the ITCZ tends to feature a southeast to northeast low-level wind fetch. The former favors low-level convergence, which helps to promote spin. That's not as easily accessible in the ITCZ since the flow is generally easterly.

Incidentally, the monsoon trough also plays a rather large role in early and late season development when the ITCZ is farther south.


Hmm, we'll have to see where it is in a couple of weeks. But this is what it looks now. I don't know the normal positioning - but the monsoon this September appears to be strong, to say the least.

Quoting 544. LAbonbon:
The area north of Moss Bluff (north of Lake Charles) is now showing 14-16 in.

Link


Wow, that's a lot of rain, even for LA.
Quoting 546. daddyjames:


Wow, that's a lot of rain, even for LA.


Yup. That front was very slow moving, and almost stationary at times. I assume that's what happened there.
Quoting 544. LAbonbon:
The area north of Moss Bluff (north of Lake Charles) is now showing 14-16 in.

Link


That's way too much rain for anyone!

Have a great night everyone!
Quoting 548. VirginIslandsVisitor:


That's way too much rain for anyone!

Have a great night everyone!


Night, Lindy. Hope you're feeling better tomorrow.
Hiccup Girl, will spend the rest of her life behind bars

Read more: http://www.abcactionnews.com/dpp/news/region_pinel las/jennifer-mee-trial-closing-arguments-begin#ixz z2fVlJ0Dlf
Quoting 547. LAbonbon:


Yup. That front was very slow moving, and almost stationary at times. I assume that's what happened there.


Started to, but dried out as it passed over, so we got nothing. Oh well, the next one looks promising.
Quoting 549. LAbonbon:


Night, Lindy. Hope you're feeling better tomorrow.


Same here!

And I am going to bid adieu. Have to be up in four hours, so i shuld be off to bed.

Stay dry, and don't float away LA and Kori. Good night.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM PABUK (T1320)
15:00 PM JST September 21 2013
======================================

Near Marianas Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Pabuk (996 hPa) located at 19.6N 145.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 9 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
300 NM from the center in east quadrant
150 NM from the center in west quadrant

Dvorak intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 22.6N 143.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Ogasawara waters
48 HRS: 24.7N 141.6E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) south of Chichi-jima
72 HRS: 27.4N 140.2E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Ogasawara waters
I am also going to try and sleep, but with the thunder...who knows.

Good night all.

555. vis0

CREDIT:NOAA<Wisc. (x3WV filtered not a NOAA product)

SUBJECT:95L + Remnants of Manuel

TIME:201309-20;0815 till 201309-21;0315





CREDIT:NOAA<Wisc. (x3WV filtered not a NOAA product) 

SUBJECT:The North-Mid Tropical Atlantic (not a reversed animation)

TIME:201309-20;1615 till 201309-21;0415





Someone call Dr. Schoch & Prof? West as to their theory on Sphinx area becoming a flooded area ...oh
wait that was a 1990s blog. No one here will get this, its for the 2
members i personally know (can't eMail left the comment)

You can really see 95L blow up in convection right off the Brownsville, TX coast!!
Surface observations suggest northerly winds at Brownsville. Water vapor imagery doesn't suggest that the front has fully cleared the Brownsville metro quite yet, and there has been no appreciable decrease in temperature or moisture in the city proper, so I'm not convinced those winds are from the dry side of the front.

95L was likely attempting one last hurrah before moving inland, as these systems often do. The remnant mid-level energy will help to amplify the front now that the system has regained its convection, and it is likely that much of the United States Gulf Coast will see a heavy rain event today.

In the meantime, 95L is becoming absorbed by the frontal zone, with radar data suggesting little evidence of a circulation, which appears to have dissipated just offshore as of the last hour or two.
Could something form along the tail end of this front? The NAM shows this I think.
Good morning............
Good morning.


Daily accumulated precipitation in Taiwan (mm). Wow.

Typhoon Usagi hits Philippines and Taiwan
Highest level warning issued as super typhoon moves towards China after wreaking havoc in the Philippines and Taiwan.
AlJazeera, Last Modified: 21 Sep 2013 09:00

Super Typhoon Usagi, the most powerful storm of the year, has brought torrential rain and strong winds to the Philippines and Taiwan uprooting trees and knocking out power as it barreled towards Hong Kong.

Usagi battered across the Batanes islands through the early hours of Saturday morning in the far north of the Philippines with gusts of up to 250km per hour.

"The winds are very strong. I cannot even go out now," Batanes governor Vicente Gato told DZBB radio in Manila. "Many trees have been uprooted and we have no electricity," he said.

The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Center issued its highest alert, with flooding recorded in four regions of the main island of Luzon, the country's most populous area, while several roads and bridges were rendered impassable by overflowing rivers or landslides. ...


Whole report see link above.


Taiwan Radar.

TPW with Usagi and Pabuk; the latter should stay out on sea:
northern gulf coast LA/MISS/ALA a very wet day ahead..
Looks like a washout for us today.
In Mexico, Critics Say Political Corruption Worsened Impact of Dual Storms
New York Times, by ELISABETH MALKIN, published: September 20, 2013
MEXICO CITY - The twin storms that tore through the country this week, unleashing rains that sent mud crashing down hillsides, buckling roads and flooding coastal cities, have renewed criticism that corruption and political shortsightedness made the damage even worse.
The death toll rose to 101 late Friday, but was expected to climb higher as rescue workers reached by air isolated mountain villages that had been cut off by landslides along the Pacific Coast. Soldiers continued their search Friday for 68 missing people in La Pintada, a coffee-growing village in Guerrero State where a hillside had given way and a river of mud poured over the town's center.
"Anywhere you fly over you will see a number of landslides that are truly shocking," Interior Minister Miguel Angel Osorio Chong said Friday. ...
Whole article see link above.


Still a lot of rain in parts of Mexico.
Folgers Special Blend Hazelnut Yessssss but the blog is slower than i have ever seen it for peak cane season
Quoting 563. LargoFl:
northern gulf coast LA/MISS/ALA a very wet day ahead..


lovely!
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 21 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
BECOMING ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT...AND TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE...DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEFORE THE SYSTEM MERGES WITH A COLD
FRONT IN ABOUT A DAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&
An interestingly varied forecast for South Florida:

SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER
AIR MASS SIT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, AS
WELL AS THE GULF COAST, WHERE THE SEA AND GULF BREEZES COLLIDE.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

---

THE PWAT VALUES THIS WEEKEND WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM 1.5 INCHES
THIS MORNING TO 1.8 INCHES BY SUNDAY EVENING, WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE PWAT VALUES WILL THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT, AND BY MONDAY MORNING THE PWAT VALUES WILL BE AT 2.4
INCHES. THEY WILL REMAIN AT 2.4 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE
PWAT VALUES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE THE NORMAL 1.8 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SO AT THIS
TIME, THE HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING WILL BE ADDED TO THE ZONES FOR
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. IF THESE TRENDS
CONTINUE IN LATER FORECAST, THEN AN HYDROLOGICAL OUTLOOK STATEMENT
WILL MORE LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY OR EARLY SUNDAY FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
573. SLU
Excerpt:

A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS BECOMING ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT...AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

Basically all of the models (including the conservative-with-cyclogenesis EURO) busted on this one. At one stage the NHC reached 60 - 70% probability of development and still nothing.
fukishima nuck? time is running out acc/ to nuck scientist. https://www.commondreams.org/view/2013/09/20-1
Quoting 573. SLU:
Excerpt:

A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS BECOMING ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT...AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

Basically all of the models (including the conservative-with-cyclogenesis EURO) busted on this one. At one stage the NHC reached 60 - 70% probability of development and still nothing.


It reached 70%-80% as the highest so is worse.
Quoting 573. SLU:
Excerpt:

A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS BECOMING ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT...AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

Basically all of the models (including the conservative-with-cyclogenesis EURO) busted on this one. At one stage the NHC reached 60 - 70% probability of development and still nothing.


all hail the models
ive always suspected model tampering
578. SLU
Quoting 575. Tropicsweatherpr:


It reached 70%-80% as the highest so is worse.


sigh.
579. SLU
Quoting 576. K8eCane:


all hail the models


A season for the record books for all the wrong (right) reasons.
581. IKE
Makes me think about how the HWRF had 95L blowing up into a cane north of the Yucatan.

Not.
Quoting 573. SLU:
Excerpt:

A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS BECOMING ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT...AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

Basically all of the models (including the conservative-with-cyclogenesis EURO) busted on this one. At one stage the NHC reached 60 - 70% probability of development and still nothing.
I wouldn't say they "busted"; that would only be a true statement had the NHC ever listed the probability at 100%. A 60%-70% chance of development is equivalent to a 40%-30% chance of non-development--and those odds are far from a 0% chance.
Quoting 582. Neapolitan:
I wouldn't say they "busted"; that would only be a true statement had the NHC ever listed the probability at 100%. A 60%-70% chance of development is equivalent to a 40%-30% chance of non-development--and those odds are far from a 0% chance.


in the medical field it would still be called a miracle by some
Good morning blog faithful.... Got our inch and still drizzling here, west of Nashville. Just noticed that our 10 day forecast completely dried up, was hoping we'd get a some of 95L remnants... Have a safe day all!


I imagine the west caribbean will get a circle at some point today.
Definite "twist" in the precip. On radar, SE of Corpus Christie, I guess that's where the center of old 95L is.
this weather look like october weather!
Quoting 581. IKE:
Makes me think about how the HWRF had 95L blowing up into a cane north of the Yucatan.

Not.
I predicted it would reach Cat 3 status before leveling Brownsville. It appears that I was wrong.
Quoting 583. K8eCane:


in the medical field it would still be called a miracle by some
Maybe---though if my surgeon told me I had a 30%-40% chance of not surviving the surgery for which I was being prepped, I wouldn't high-five the operating room and shout, "Then I've clearly nothing to fear!" ;-)
591. SLU
Quoting 582. Neapolitan:
I wouldn't say they "busted"; that would only be a true statement had the NHC ever listed the probability at 100%. A 60%-70% chance of development is equivalent to a 40%-30% chance of non-development--and those odds are far from a 0% chance.


Basically the principle of the cup being half full instead of half empty.

But yeah, that's a fair assessment when you look at it from that perspective.

Usagi apparently once again is establishing its pinhole eye. Radar Taiwan (loops available)
South on 9/21/2013 to 9/22/2013


- A cold front will interact with ample tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to produce an area of widespread rain today.

- Significant rainfall, 1-3" is possible from southern Louisiana, into Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia.

- There could be some spotty localized flooding, but generally this rain is welcome over much of the affected areas.

- After heavy rain on Friday, much drier weather settles in to the southern Plains today.

- Clouds and rain will keep temperatures in the 70s across a large part of the region (away from the Southeast Coast where it will be warmer in the low 80s).

- Saturday's highs in the 80s across much of Texas.

- Highs in the upper 80s to near 90 across the Florida Peninsula.

- Most of the Southeast will dry out on Sunday, except for areas along the Southeast coast, right near the Gulf Coast and in Florida.

Northeast | View Regional Video

- After a nice stretch of dry weather recently, showers and thunderstorms will move into the region today.

- The main area of rain will extend from central New York back down to West Virginia.

- Most of New England will remain rain free through the daytime hours today.

- Rain makes its way into Boston and New York City this evening into early Sunday.

- Today's highs will range from the mid 60s to mid 70s, higher temperatures near the East Coast.

- A wet Sunday looms for much of New England.

- Another surge of much cooler air behind the cold front for early next week.

- Temperatures will return to 5-15 degrees below average by Monday.
Attention everyone! Everybody in the building! Looks like something is trying to develop in the NW Caribbean. Get out that yellow pencil. It's in the right place and in the right time of year. Finally looks like we might get a storm.
Agreed HurriHistory, looks like something trying to get going, but which way will it go--if it forms? That front is sweeping thru the Gomex.
12z Best Track for Usagi and Pabuk.

17W USAGI 130921 1200 21.1N 119.7E WPAC 110 941

19W PABUK 130921 1200 20.6N 144.4E WPAC 40 993
Quoting 595. originalLT:
Agreed HurriHistory, looks like something trying to get going, but which way will it go--if it forms? That front is sweeping thru the Gomex.
That front is forcast to position itself across South Florida early next week and bring very heavy rains to the sunshine state. If that area gets going as the front drifts southward it most likely would move NE up, along and ahead of the front over South Florida like several of the Hurricanes did back in the 1940s. See the 1948 Hurricane Season. This is typical of how we get a Hurricane this time of year. An early season coldfront and a developing area of low pressure in the NW Caribbean. When the two meet, WATCH OUT SOUTH FLORIDA!
Quoting 598. HurriHistory:
That front is forcast to position itself across South Florida early next week and bring very heavy rains to the sunshine state. If that area gets going as the front drifts southward it most likely would move NE up, along and ahead of the front over South Florida like several of the Hurricanes did back in the 1940s. See the 1948 Hurricane Season. This is typical of how we get a Hurricane this time of year. An early season coldfront and a developing area of low pressure in the NW Caribbean. When the two meet, WATCH OUT SOUTH FLORIDA!


are you serious?

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF REGION. THIS DEEP MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF UPCOMING WEEK WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNT IN
SOME LOCATIONS AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.
ok so florida has a very wet week ahead..cleaning out the gutters etc again today..getting ready.
Quoting 599. K8eCane:


are you serious?
Yes,100%.
Today marks another anniversary of the last hurricane that made landfall in Puerto Rico and that was Georges in 1998. It caused extensive damage and some casualties.



Hurricane Georges Puerto Rico report
Quoting 604. HurriHistory:
Yes, why not.


uh i dunno. just asking
ABSOLUTELY NO WIND TODAY....



Clouds are stationary. I think some islands will get localized heavy afternoon showers.
Quoting 606. K8eCane:


uh i dunno. just asking
A lot of the Hurrianes which have hit South Florida over the years have come out of the NW Caribbean when an early season cold-front moves down from the NW. Just look at your Hurricane History. It's all there. The problem is most of the people on this blog don't like to look at anything that happened before 1960 and that is a must, as that is where you will see certain trends in development and movement. With tropical cyclones, the past is very important.
Quoting 608. HurriHistory:
A lot of the Hurrianes which have hit South Florida over the years have come out of the NW Caribbean when an early season cold-front moves down from the NW. Just look at your Hurricane History. It's all there. The problem is most of the people on this blog don't like to look at anything that happened before 1960 and that is a must, as that is where you will see certain trends in development and movement. With tropical cyclones, the past is very important.


i know. i have had Hazel 1954 on my mind all season
Quoting 607. CaribBoy:
ABSOLUTELY NO WIND TODAY....



Clouds are stationary. I think some islands will get localized heavy afternoon showers.


Beautiful! was going to ask you the other day if u would post a pic from there
Quoting 608. HurriHistory:
A lot of the Hurrianes which have hit South Florida over the years have come out of the NW Caribbean when an early season coldfront moves down from the NW. Just look at your Hurricane History. It's all there. The problem is most of the people on this blog don't like to look at anything that happened before 1960 and that is a must as that is where you will see certain trends in development and movement. With tropical cyclones the past is very important.


Sure it's happened. But since 95L just punched into the front...and it has a 0% chance of development, I don't think conditions are existent enough in the NW Caribbean and/or Gulf to get a storm right now.

That and since this year has been disappointing on so many fronts (lol), everyone has become either pessimistic or really jumpy at every single low that comes by.
Quoting 502. lobdelse81:
and the threat of an El Nino suppressed Atlantic next year may turn us all on this blog into lemmings to cliffs from now till June 2015, lol, rofl, lmao :)

Well, even if it is an El Nino next year, I still would expect it to be slightly more active than 2013
Quoting 590. Neapolitan:
Maybe---though if my surgeon told me I had a 30%-40% chance of not surviving the surgery for which I was being prepped, I wouldn't high-five the operating room and shout, "Then I've clearly nothing to fear!" ;-)

I just love how folks on here think that a 70% or even 80% means something will definitely develop. I have even seen this when the NHC marks an invest orange (30%). The salivating fest on here continues. The relentless salivating at both ends of the mouth for the next Rita to explode in the Gulf and destroy property.

So sad Neapolitan. I agree with you completely. And so sad fine sir. Nice post.
Quoting 609. K8eCane:


i know. i have had Hazel 1954 on my mind all season


that was a mid oct storm i think
Quoting 584. JNTenne:
Good morning blog faithful.... Got our inch and still drizzling here, west of Nashville. Just noticed that our 10 day forecast completely dried up, was hoping we'd get a some of 95L remnants... Have a safe day all!


I got a total of 2.24 inches from this front, really impressive and a great help seeing how dry it's been recently.
Quoting 614. K8eCane:


that was a mid oct storm i think


havent looked at how the rest of the 54 season was though
Quoting 616. K8eCane:


havent looked at how the rest of the 54 season was though


just looked and this season dont measure up
Quoting 613. SouthernIllinois:

I just love how folks on here think that a 70% or even 80% means something will definitely develop. I have even seen this when the NHC marks an invest orange (30%). The salivating fest on here continues. The relentless salivating at both ends of the mouth for the next Rita to explode in the Gulf and destroy property.

So sad Neapolitan. So sad fine sir.
No one isn't wishing for the next Rita per say.Everyone is just grumpy on how this season has turned out.Every storm looks like it has potential only for shear,dry air,or multiple LLC's to disrupt the storm from doing anything more than what we've seen this year in the tropics: weak storms struggling to get going.
Quoting 607. CaribBoy:
ABSOLUTELY NO WIND TODAY....



Clouds are stationary. I think some islands will get localized heavy afternoon showers.


Good morning everyone

We're in the same boat over here.
Quoting 619. VirginIslandsVisitor:


Good morning everyone

We're in the same boat over here.


can you post a pic from Virgin Islands today?
Id what's left of 95 staying over water or expected to come in and give us some more rain??
We've gotten right at 4" of rain here in the Richmond, TX area since yesterday. That ought to green up the grass a little...or at least make it less crispy.
Quoting 615. Astrometeor:


I got a total of 2.24 inches from this front, really impressive and a great help seeing how dry it's been recently.
Good morning Astro. The GFS did a good job with this front, and had it configured just this way over a week ago. The GFS has a similar front at 192 hours..
Quoting 539. KoritheMan:

The monsoon trough is actually much more beneficial to tropical cyclogenesis than the ITCZ...
Hey Kori, the same feature (a double red line) on the synoptic charts sometimes called the ITCZ and other times the monsoon trough. According to Wikipedia "When it [the ITCZ] lies near the equator, it is called the near-equatorial trough. Where the ITCZ is drawn into and merges with a monsoonal circulation, it is sometimes referred to as a monsoon trough..."

I live in the mountains of western Panama about 40 miles from the Costa Rica border, and our local WU-station weather site has an excellent local "tropical weather guide" with lots of basic information - a good source of basic weather and climate information for newbies to tropical weather.

Panama gets most of its rain when the ITCZ is north of us, and during our December-March dry season, it usually stays south of us. Although the SW Caribbean is a cyclogenesis region, we're too far south (8.75 degrees north latitude) to get hit by hurricanes, although 1998's Hurricane Mitch did bring torrential rains to Bocas del Toro and Chiriqui Provinces.

This year, we're WAY below average cumulative rainfall to this date, although the 21 inches so far in September has been good. We would need another 48 inches this month to reach the 6-year cumulative average for the end of September, which is very unlikely, and 110" more by the end of the year to reach the 6-year average. Without a Mitch-type event, that is not likely to happen. Water supplies ran low, and some domestic water sources dried up in the dry season this year, and the same situation looks likely for next year.
First classic fall cold front of the year.

Quoting 625. VAbeachhurricanes:
First classic fall cold front of the year.




that little blob of rain over wilmington nc is raining on me right now
October 8 marks the beginning of the new Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season. My staff and I will be gearing up, with live reporting from New Orleans when the first Cat 4 of the season makes landfall, on or before October 12. This will coincide with the stock market crash at the same time. Thank you.
628. yoboi
Quoting 582. Neapolitan:
I wouldn't say they "busted"; that would only be a true statement had the NHC ever listed the probability at 100%. A 60%-70% chance of development is equivalent to a 40%-30% chance of non-development--and those odds are far from a 0% chance.


This is a fine example of the scientist not knowing what will happen in a couple of days......and you come on here to sell that the scientist can predict with 95-97% accuracy our climate 100 yrs from now....Do you think that when George Straight was singing he had some ocean front property for sale in Arizona that he was actually singing a climate change song????
Okay. Since it's a fairly quiet morning, I'm going to make my first attempt at posting a pic. If I screw it up, I'll delete it immediately!

Wish me luck here. ;-)
Quoting 629. VirginIslandsVisitor:
Okay. Since it's a fairly quiet morning, I'm going to make my first attempt at posting a pic. If I screw it up, I'll delete it immediately!

Wish me luck here. ;-)


GOOD LUCK!
img src="">

St. Thomas this morning.
Quoting 631. VirginIslandsVisitor:
img src="">

St. Thomas this morning.



Beautiful!!
Quoting 627. eyewallblues:
October 8 marks the beginning of the new Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season. My staff and I will be gearing up, with live reporting from New Orleans when the first Cat 4 of the season makes landfall, on or before October 12. This will coincide with the stock market crash at the same time. Thank you.



wishcasting???
A success!
Quoting 634. VirginIslandsVisitor:
A success!


i certainly wish i was there to jump right in!
Quoting 635. K8eCane:


i certainly wish i was there to jump right in!


Very pretty to look at but the swimming at that beach isn't nice. The sand is very coarse and there is a coral reef a few feet off shore. Good for snorkeling though.
637. MahFL
95L lives ?

I wonder how soon before the next active hurricane season OR major hurricane....

Hopefully it won't be any longer than say....the rest of this year!!!!
Quoting 625. VAbeachhurricanes:
First classic fall cold front of the year.

I'm enjoying the sunshine while I still.That will be moving in later tonight bringing us a good amount of rain.

While we're on the topic of sunshine I've been taking advantage of these last two weeks of dry weather and crisp mornings.I know the fattening time (Halloween-Thanks giving-Christmas) are coming up.Been working out in the mornings and really trying to keep this weight off.
Quoting 637. MahFL:
95L lives ?




nop 95L is now part of a cold front
Quoting 637. MahFL:
95L lives ?


Unless it at least becomes a tropical storm with a partial eyewall, I really don't care, I am done with 2013 storms.
Quoting 641. opal92nwf:

Unless it at least becomes a tropical storm with a partial eyewall, I really don't care, I am done with 2013 storms.



same here
Quoting 609. K8eCane:


i know. i have had Hazel 1954 on my mind all season


I've had Hazel and Hugo on my mind all season.
Hurricane Hugo, a category 4 storm, hit Charleston, SC 24 years ago today!
The season has probably come to an end for any systems originating in the tropical Atlantic with respect to affecting the U.S. That disturbance in the NW Caribbean needs to be watch for persistence, however.
Quoting 644. charlestonscnanny:
Hurricane Hugo, a category 4 storm, hit Charleston, SC 24 years ago today!


i remember that very well
Quoting 646. K8eCane:


i remember that very well


tore up our yard here in wilmington
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. We have had an inch of rain here in my part of Louisiana. The heavier rain we wanted is/has missed us, but that's all right. Everything has been nature-watered wonderfully. My plants are very happy, as am I.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Cajun Crawfish Breakfast Eggs, whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, steak, eggs and hash browns, bacon and egg grilled cheese, French Toast Roll-Ups, Cheesecake Burritos, cinnamon streusel coffee cake, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
We were really close to having a white Christmas last year only for it to switch to all rain.I'm hoping this year will be better...I'm not holding my breath though..
Quoting 602. LargoFl:
ok so florida has a very wet week ahead..cleaning out the gutters etc again today..getting ready.
It rained all but 2 days here in South Broward 10 miles from the coast at least some drops, but mostly heavier downpours this summer. What kind of rain are we talking, because of witnessed 3 or 4 inches an hour here in an hours time on several occasions where minor street flooding happened. If we are talking a foot over a 24 hr period, then just maybe we'll have more substantial issues.
Quoting 609. K8eCane:


i know. i have had Hazel 1954 on my mind all season
My Father told me about Hazel. He lived in New Jersey at the time. He mentioned how the tree,s snapped and all loose objects were thrown down his street at 70 mph. Hazel was huge and violent.
Quoting 651. hydrus:
My Father told me about Hazel. He lived in New Jersey at the time. He mentioned how the tree,s snapped and all loose objects were thrown down his street at 70 mph. Hazel was huge and violent.


she was 4 years before i was born, but my mom told me pretty much the same thing, except after it was over they found a dead man in the back yard
Quoting 652. K8eCane:


she was 4 years before i was born, but my mom told me pretty much the same thing, except after it was over they found a dead man in the back yard


they were near the beach at NC/SC state line
James Reynolds (@TyphoonFury) is now back in Hong Kong editing his footage from Taiwan.


Drought conditions are obvious
Quoting 655. CaribBoy:


Drought conditions are obvious



still pretty tho
657. MahFL
Over all the front is starting to curve around 95 L, could leave a spinning low in the center of the GOM, which could blow up into a HUGE hurricane :).


Central parts of the island are slightly greener though.
@EricBlake12 4m
EC/GFS consistently showing another CV-type cyclone in a little over a week. This could be the ultimate "quantity not quality" Atlc TC year
Quoting 659. TropicalAnalystwx13:
@EricBlake12 4m
EC/GFS consistently showing another CV-type cyclone in a little over a week. This could be the ultimate "quantity not quality" Atlc TC year


6Z GFS shows a weak storm heading WNW across the CATL.
661. BA
rainy and windy on north padre island (south Texas coast) this morning
Good wet, raining Saturday morning, weathergeeks! ;)


So, I peek at a visible, there's this nice looking blob spinning like crazy in the northwest Caribbean, and I hit the Navy site expecting to see 96L (or more), and presto - NOTHING! Huh? Sfc map - no "L", nothing. I mean, what the hay? This has to be the weirdest cane season I've ever endured.

Good morning, everyone!

Got about 4 inches at my home in Baton Rouge. Very happy not to be in one of the hotspots that got inundated.
666. yoboi
Quoting 664. LAbonbon:
Good morning, everyone!

Got about 4 inches at my home in Baton Rouge. Very happy not to be in one of the hotspots that got inundated.



I got just over 5 inches and I see the folks in the moss bluff area got over 10 inches of rain and flooding of houses.....
667. beell
Quoting 663. moonlightcowboy:
Good wet, raining Saturday morning, weathergeeks! ;)


So, I peek at a visible, there's this nice looking blob spinning like crazy in the northwest Caribbean, and I hit the Navy site expecting to see 96L (or more), and presto - NOTHING! Huh? Sfc map - no "L", nothing. I mean, what the hay? This has to be the weirdest cane season I've ever endured.



The last hurrah of what has been a very active monsoon?
Quoting 667. beell:


The last hurrah of what has been a very active monsoon?



Beell, so what's the story on your tramp?
Quoting MahFL:
Over all the front is starting to curve around 95 L, could leave a spinning low in the center of the GOM, which could blow up into a HUGE hurricane :).

Should I get my plywood out now or wait a bit? :-) We are starting to get out very first light rain/drizzle in SE AL in the last 10 days, so I'm hoping that, between the front and whatever amount of moisture the the remnants of 95L can contribute, we might get an inch or so over the next few days. Even though the rain is not heavy, it is fairly widespread, and the front looks like our first "fall" type storm, although the cold air hasn't reached us yet.
Quoting 666. yoboi:



I got just over 5 inches and I see the folks in the moss bluff area got over 10 inches of rain and flooding of houses.....


Ouch! I was thinking of you when I started seeing the rain amounts your way. Looks like most of it stayed to your west?

And I'm sure the ponds are looking good :)
Quoting LAbonbon:
Good morning, everyone!

Got about 4 inches at my home in Baton Rouge. Very happy not to be in one of the hotspots that got inundated.

Looks like Louisiana and Texas are getting most of the rain from this one. Most of Mississippi and Alabama are either getting light rain or nothing at all. It appears that there is a wave offshore from Louisiana that's generating most of the heavy rain. Glad to hear you got a good soaking with no problems.
Quoting 671. sar2401:

Looks like Louisiana and Texas are getting most of the rain from this one. Most of Mississippi and Alabama are either getting light rain or nothing at all. It appears that there is a wave offshore from Louisiana that's generating most of the heavy rain. Glad to hear you got a good soaking with no problems.


Yup, good news for me. Looks like portions of 'upstate' Mississippi has gotten a good bit Link

(If I knew how to zoom in and then show the image here I would!)
674. beell
Quoting 668. moonlightcowboy:



Beell, so what's the story on your tramp?



Last I heard, she was dancing in a club up in Dallas.
Quoting 659. TropicalAnalystwx13:
@EricBlake12 4m
EC/GFS consistently showing another CV-type cyclone in a little over a week. This could be the ultimate "quantity not quality" Atlc TC year
Does EC mean the Euro model?.And ncstorm posted awhile back that the Nogaps was showing a cape verde storm.I just want this season to end.Highs for the rest of the week should be in the 70's :).Yep.That is fall!.
676. yoboi
Quoting 670. LAbonbon:


Ouch! I was thinking of you when I started seeing the rain amounts your way. Looks like most of it stayed to your west?

And I'm sure the ponds are looking good :)


Yeah the ponds are almost full....wonder how much more rain we will get....
Northern CDO of Usagi is beginning to cool again. Seems to be filling that voided area in. No shear evident what so ever on satellite.

Lots of rain in those two fronts.

Quoting moonlightcowboy:
Good wet, raining Saturday morning, weathergeeks! ;)


So, I peek at a visible, there's this nice looking blob spinning like crazy in the northwest Caribbean, and I hit the Navy site expecting to see 96L (or more), and presto - NOTHING! Huh? Sfc map - no "L", nothing. I mean, what the hay? This has to be the weirdest cane season I've ever endured.


Good morning, MLC. That blob off Honduras is just what it looks like - a blob. No surface circulation, just an area of thunderstorms. During the tropical summer, they blow up almost every day and tend to die down by midnight. What little movement it appears to have is WSW toward Honduras. The dry air is out in full force south of the immediate Gulf Coast today. The Yucatan, Cuba, and most of the Florida Peninsula is convection free today. Even assuming that blob did develop, I suspect it would have to be more impressive and the general conditions in the area would have to improve a lot before it would be an invest. The NHC has been burned by a lot of invests coming over the Yucatan and into the BOC this year - witness 95L - and I don't think they want to be burned again for a while. :-)
Quoting 675. washingtonian115:
Does EC mean the Euro model?.And ncstorm posted awhile back that the Nogaps was showing a cape verde storm.I just want this season to end.Highs for the rest of the week should be in the 70's :).Yep.That is fall!.

Yup, ECMWF.
Quoting 663. moonlightcowboy:
Good wet, raining Saturday morning, weathergeeks! ;)


So, I peek at a visible, there's this nice looking blob spinning like crazy in the northwest Caribbean, and I hit the Navy site expecting to see 96L (or more), and presto - NOTHING! Huh? Sfc map - no "L", nothing. I mean, what the hay? This has to be the weirdest cane season I've ever endured.



If the mass of clouds continue to fester for the next 24 hrs then the NHC will be concerned about it. My guess if it is still there a 8pm tonight they may mention the area on there 5 day outlook then. For now lets just continue to monitor the area for signs of organization.
Quoting 677. ILwthrfan:
Northern CDO of Usagi is beginning to cool again. Seems to be filling that voided area in. No shear evident what so ever on satellite.



Actually, if you look at the outflow channel in the SW quadrant you can see some shear induced reduction in outflow(the clouds are not streaming away from the center as rapidly).

Can also note some continental dry air affecting the East and NE sides convection wise.

Just my opinion, and noting my observations of the loop; Not trying to step on any toes... :)
683. beell
We should have a persistent surface trough stretching from Texas to the BOC to watch for a few days. Maybe attached to the remains of the frontal boundary.



09/21 12Z GFS 850 mb-Valid Sunday, 15Z
Our rain gauge shows 4.04 inches since 6p.m. yesterday. We are in the Missouri City area just South of Houston.
685. IKE
12Z GFS @ 144 hours...next Friday.....




Quoting LAbonbon:


Yup, good news for me. Looks like portions of 'upstate' Mississippi has gotten a good bit Link

(If I knew how to zoom in and then show the image here I would!)

I can never figure those thing out either. for some reason, the area around Jackson seems to have been the MS hotspot, with almost 4 inches in the last 2 days. Most other areas got an inch to 2 inches except for the coast, which got less than an inch. The rain looks to be breaking up as it moves further east. I've had enough to wet the sidewalks but still not enough to tip the gauge.
tues-wens 25-30 mph winds per the ecwmf model for central florida..
Nam precip for wens...
Quoting fireflymom:
Our rain gauge shows 4.04 inches since 6p.m. yesterday. We are in the Missouri City area just South of Houston.

Good for you. I'd take 4 inches of rain here in SE Alabama now. Unfortunately, the rain is dissolving as it moves east. Maybe we'll get more later today as the low moves a little further east, but it's not looking good right now.
GFS precip for wens...............
UKMET precip for tues.............
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 677. ILwthrfan:
Northern CDO of Usagi is beginning to cool again. Seems to be filling that voided area in. No shear evident what so ever on satellite.


Looks like some southerly shear on the loop here. The south side of the outflow flattens. Seems like some dry air from the south could have wrapped into the northern side by "taking the tour" in the storms outer circulation.
sunny beautiful and there is surf e cen fl.
Video from James Reynolds in the Southern tip of Taiwan

img src="">img src="">
Link


new blog
Quoting 688. LargoFl:
Nam precip for wens...


The NAM and the GFS have some sort of error issue with showing heavy rain barely making it onshore from the gulf. Both models have done so with nearly every heavy rain event in Florida this year that has come from the west.

In this setup, typically the heaviest rain is near the coast, but still. Inland areas will get more than the model is showing, there is something wrong there.
and so is 95L

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