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Manuel Hits Mexico Again, 138 Dead or Missing; Cat 4 Usagi a Threat to Hong Kong

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:56 PM GMT on September 19, 2013

Hurricane Manuel made landfall in the Mexican state of Sinaloa almost due east of the tip of the Baja Peninsula this Thursday morning near 8 am EDT, as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. It was Manuel's second landfall this week in storm-weary Mexico. Manuel hit the coast on Monday as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds northwest of Acapulco, bringing torrential rains of up to foot in the coastal mountains. The combined one-two punch of Manuel on Mexico's Pacific coast and Hurricane Ingrid on the Atlantic coast this week have caused flooding blamed for at least 80 deaths. Another 58 people are missing and probably dead in a landslide that hit La Pintada, several hours north of Acapulco. The double blow by Manuel and Ingrid this week was the first time since 1958 that two tropical storms or hurricanes had hit both of Mexico's coasts within 24 hours. Acapulco received 7.41" of rain from Manuel September 12 - 16, and up to a foot of rain fell in the surrounding mountains. Manuel promises to bring 5 - 10" of rain to the Mexican state of Sinaloa, which is likely to cause additional flash floods and mudslides over the next few days. Mexican radar shows that Manuel is moving very slowly inland, and should weaken significantly as long as the eye stays ashore. Satellite images show that Manuel is a small storm, and its heavy rains are affecting a relatively limited area. With such a large death toll, it is possible that the name Manuel will be retired from the list of active Eastern Pacific hurricanes; only three other Pacific storms that hit Mexico have had their names retired.


Figure 1. Hurricane Manuel at landfall in the Mexican state of Sinaloa at 7:15 am EDT September 19, 2013. Image credit: Conagua.


Figure 2. Rainfall for the 9-day period September 9 - 18, 2013, as measured by NASA's TRMM satellite. Rainfall amounts of 12" inches (red colors) affected portions of Mexico near Acapulco. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 3. A soldier wades through the water at the airport of Acapulco, after floods from Tropical Storm Manuel hit on September 17, 2013. Image credit: Pedro Pardo/AFP/Getty Images).

Invest 95L in Bay of Campeche
Waterlogged Mexico has yet another tropical rain-making system to worry about--Invest 95L, over the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Satellite loops show that 95L has a pronounced spin, but only a small area of heavy thunderstorms. The thunderstorms are causing some isolated heavy downpours along the coast of Mexico, as seen on Mexican radar. Wind shear is moderate, and ocean temperatures are warm, 29°C (84°F.) There is some dry air over the Bay of Campeche, which appears to be slowing down development. A hurricane hunter flight is scheduled to investigate 95L on Thursday afternoon, but I expect this flight will be cancelled, due to 95L's lack of heavy thunderstorms.

Invest 95L will likely stay trapped in the Bay of Campeche
Wind shear is expected to be low to moderate over the next five days. NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 70% and 5-day odds of 80% in their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook. Steering currents will be weak in the Bay of Campeche over the next five days, and most of the models predict that 95L will stay trapped there, moving slowly and erratically. However, the UKMET model and approximately 20% of the 20 individual forecasts from the GFS ensemble and European Center ensemble predict that 95L will turn north next week and hit the U.S. Gulf Coast. A cold front and associated upper-level trough of low pressure are expected to push southeastwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and it is possible that the upper-level westerly winds associated with this weather system will reach far enough south to pull 95L out of the Bay of Campeche. It typically takes a stronger upper-level trough of low pressure to flush a tropical cyclone out of the Bay of Campeche, though, and 95L will most likely stay put. Regardless, tropical moisture from 95L will likely stream northeastwards along the cold front over much of the U.S. Gulf Coast on Saturday and Sunday, bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4".


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Usagi, taken at approximately 02:30 UTC on September 19, 2013. At the time, Usagi was a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Dangerous Typhoon Usagi headed for Taiwan and Hong Kong
In the Western Pacific, powerful and dangerous Typhoon Usagi has intensified to a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. Further intensification is likely over the next day, as Usagi is over very warm waters of 29 - 30°C with high heat content, and is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. The official JTWC forecast brings Usagi to a Category 5 super typhoon by Friday, which would make Usagi Earth's first Category 5 storm of 2013. Usagi will pass very close to the southern tip of Taiwan at 06 UTC Saturday (2 am EDT), and interaction with land could potentially weaken the storm. However, Usagi is still expected to be a major Category 3 typhoon when it makes landfall near Hong Kong at approximately 00 UTC Sunday (8 pm EDT Saturday.) Satellite images show that Usagi is a large and very impressive typhoon with a prominent eye surrounded by a thick eyewall with intense thunderstorms that reach high into the atmosphere.

Friday's blog update will be later than usual, as I am taking the day off, and one of wunderground's San Francisco-based meteorologists will be filling in for me.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Mid level spin SE off the coast of the Yucatan
1502. Torito
Quoting 1499. JRRP:

NAVGEM develops one of them


Yea, but I don't know if it can be followed yet, its still far out.
1503. Torito
1504. FOREX
Quoting 1501. RitaEvac:
Mid level spin SE off the coast of the Yucatan


and another over land to its south.
You can really see nicely the line of demarcation as the storms build up along the front now.

Quoting 1496. superpete:


Kman- as we have seen in past years, late October into first weeks of November has spawned some major storms in the Caribbean, not to mention the 'M' 'W' and 'P' storms. The 2013 season may yet to reveal its true colors, despite all the bust forecast one is hearing. This year's season is far from over, just my thoughts


There is a secondary peak in early to mid October so we still have a good 5 weeks of "peak" season remaining. After that the cold fronts come down and stall out leaving tail end lows typically East of Nicaragua and these tend to have a lot of time to organise as steering is usually weak late in the season.

Quoting 1497. kmanislander:


Not much to watch so far but a long way to go :-)


Maybe not so far. Seems to be some rotation there (save my bad eyes). Another thing noteworthy is the weak steering, slow forward speed which could aid development.


Quoting 1470. LargoFl:
maybe some one has a better GFS run for thursday..whats this by the west coast of florida?..


There will be nothing tropical in the GOM this weekend or next week. The front that is crossing the US right now is going to stall across Florida into early next week. There will be a series of non-tropical lows that will develop and ride along the front bringing lots of rain to central and south Florida through at least next Wednesday. This front coupled with a strong area of high pressure building down the east side of the Appalachians will also aid in "piling" more moisture into Florida. We will not see Jerry until October.
1509. ncstorm
Quoting 1502. Torito:


Yea, but I don't know if it can be followed yet, its still far out.


CMC
1510. Torito
Quoting 1509. ncstorm:


CMC


3 potential storms there, although the one appears to be subtropical (the north one).
I'd just like to mention a comment made to me yesterday at work. (Retail) A customer said her mother's nursing home evacuated to Alexandria, LA due to the potential of high tides and such. Located in eastern N.O. I found that so odd. I asked her if they knew something we didn't? She assumed they did so out of extreme caution. For 95L? Wait, what????
1512. hydrus
Quoting 1481. Torito:
Very weak tropical waves coming off of Africa now.

They still have some decent spin to them. I do wonder if we will get an October storm from that region..
Hey guys this new AOI looking good has good vort in all area (925mb 850mb (although 700mb has little vort but its more vort than 500mb) except for 500mb which has very little vort but that can change shear is not bad at all and it appears to be developing an upper anticyclone on top my guess is that it will slowly make its way into the E Caribbean and then WNW into the Central Caribbean being just E of Jamaica and S of Haiti










Quoting 1506. kmanislander:


There is a secondary peak in early to mid October so we still have a good 5 weeks of "peak" season remaining. After that the cold fronts come down and stall out leaving tail end lows typically East of Nicaragua and these tend to have a lot of time to organise as steering is usually weak late in the season.



We both mentioned weak steering at the same time. Maybe I'm getting smarter! ;P
Quoting 1491. nitro901:


Yes, 5' of rain would be catastrophic no doubt. So far in the last 3 days I've only had a trace each day and a whopping 0.67" the day before that. Our total for the year so far is a mere 11.68" when our yearly average is around 29-30".


We have had a bit more than you this year, but all at once and very little in the past month. The grass is high, and the soil is drying out. The front brought a whopping 0.09" to us. So i feel your pain.

The long term forecast - over the next 90 days - indicates above average rainfall for our region. Hopefully if we don't get it now, we get some soon.

1516. 7544
mornin all WELCOME BACK LARGO !maybe new blob watch today east of the islands looks like a little spin there maybe pre 96L soon?
1517. junie1
Quoting 1446. CaribBoy:


I can take jose but no MARILYN 18 years ago storm cost massive devestation to st.thomas not again no power no water 80% of the island had damage..A nice small TS would be nice just for kicks
1518. LargoFl
Quoting 1516. 7544:
mornin all WELCOME BACK LARGO !maybe new blob watch today east of the islands looks like a little spin there maybe pre 96L soon?
hiya, yes watching it too.
If it wasn't 2013 the action east of the Lesser Antilles would look promising.

Quoting 1507. moonlightcowboy:


Maybe not so far. Seems to be some rotation there (save my bad eyes). Another thing noteworthy is the weak steering, slow forward speed which could aid development.




It is weak and the high over the SE ( big bend area ) should propagate to the East bending that feature back to the West if it does develop. The 84 hour steering shows very zonal flow all the way to Western Cuba.
1521. ncstorm
GFS Ensembles..more south

1522. FOREX
Quoting 1516. 7544:
mornin all WELCOME BACK LARGO !maybe new blob watch today east of the islands looks like a little spin there maybe pre 96L soon?


there is also nice spin south of the Yucatan over land.
1523. LargoFl
Quoting 1514. moonlightcowboy:


We both mentioned weak steering at the same time. Maybe I'm getting smarter! ;P


LOL
Wave east of the Lesser Antilles is more and more interesting

(Though I keep in mind that this is 2013... )
Quoting 1519. VAbeachhurricanes:
If it wasn't 2013 the action east of the Lesser Antilles would look promising.



You may be right, but for once, the blob doesn't seem to be embedded in some monsoonal gyre, some surface trough. Actually looks like more of the normal type of blob potential than most anything we've seen yet this season.
To the experts on here....As we have not seen but one Hurricane this season so far (I think), I hear people on here talk alot about energy that's "bottled up", and hasn't been released due to slower than normal season. What effect will that have on next season, if any? Hope the question makes sense.......
Quoting 1465. prcane4you:
CaribBoy you are not a blob tracker.


I am a BIG storm wishcaster... lol I know :))))


It looks like this area has had some consistent rotation over the last 12 hours... Any agreement?
Quoting 1468. Torito:


Could this be your storm? I don't think it has any chance of development TBH...



Nice image though
1531. hydrus
Quoting 1486. kmanislander:


My referring to Gilbert was not meant to imply that I expected something dramatic from the wave but just because the season has been odd to date does not mean it will end as it began. In fact, it is the strangeness of the season that is a potential worry as the remainder of it could be where the danger lies. Only time will tell.
October always makes me worry more than September, because we get whacked more in that month. September brings mostly storms in from the east coast of Florida and then we get hit , but not as bad. When they come from your region, we are taking direct hits, some serious...Historically, October is definitely S.W.Florida,s worst month.
It does have some nice spin to it.

Quoting 1441. Bluestorm5:
Usagi is about to undergo eye replacement... I think. Dat pinhole eye last half of GIF though.



JTWC seems to be awfully confident in Usagi weakening due to land interaction from Taiwan and then combined with lowering SST and TCHP as Usagi nears Hong Kong. I am not so sure if it will decrease as quickly as they depict. I could see it pulling in dry air from mainland China, but if it's core manages to completely miss Taiwan and shoot the gap it could easily maintain CAT 3 status, maybe even higher.

So 940 MB CAT 3 still very possible...

Quoting 1485. stormwatcherCI:


I see there is a LOW with it...

Now the only thing this LOW has to do is --->> EXPLODING with huge convection

XD
During the past couple of weeks we have had hot temperatures in PR during the day and night which indicates that there still lots of energy in the atmosphere.
1536. LargoFl
1537. hydrus
Quoting 1527. cat6band:
To the experts on here....As we have not seen but one Hurricane this season so far (I think), I hear people on here talk alot about energy that's "bottled up", and hasn't been released due to slower than normal season. What effect will that have on next season, if any? Hope the question makes sense.......
I,m no expert, but I can say that if there is plenty of shear, and very few waves or disturbances, all the hot water or bottled energy wont matter. Atmospheric conditions have to be there for tropical storms to develop.
1538. hydrus
Quoting 1533. ILwthrfan:


JTWC seems to be awfully confident in Usagi weakening due to land interaction from Taiwan and then combined with lowering SST and TCHP as Usagi nears Hong Kong. I am not so sure if it will decrease as quickly as they depict. I could see it pulling in dry air from mainland China, but if it's core manages to completely miss Taiwan and shoot the gap it could easily maintain CAT 3 status, maybe even higher.

So 940 MB CAT 3 still very possible...

Aussie said last night that Southern Taiwan is very mountainous, and can disrupt the storm.
Quoting 1527. cat6band:
To the experts on here....As we have not seen but one Hurricane this season so far (I think), I hear people on here talk alot about energy that's "bottled up", and hasn't been released due to slower than normal season. What effect will that have on next season, if any? Hope the question makes sense.......


Firstly, I have no pretensions to being an expert but once the season is over and the water cools that would be it. Some of the OHC is carried away from the tropics by the natural ocean currents and the remainder will be dissipated over the winter months as the cold fronts come down and temperatures drop.Even weak storms will cool the water, as we have seen in the BOC recently, from either upwelling or persistent rain over the same area.

I seriously doubt there is any carry over from one season to the next.
Quoting 1511. midgulfmom:
I'd just like to mention a comment made to me yesterday at work. (Retail) A customer said her mother's nursing home evacuated to Alexandria, LA due to the potential of high tides and such. Located in eastern N.O. I found that so odd. I asked her if they knew something we didn't? She assumed they did so out of extreme caution. For 95L? Wait, what????


Do you know when she evacuated? A portion of the LA coast was under coastal flood watch/warnings this week.
Quoting 1508. Chucktown:


There will be nothing tropical in the GOM this weekend or next week. The front that is crossing the US right now is going to stall across Florida into early next week. There will be a series of non-tropical lows that will develop and ride along the front bringing lots of rain to central and south Florida through at least next Wednesday. This front coupled with a strong area of high pressure building down the east side of the Appalachians will also aid in "piling" more moisture into Florida. We will not see Jerry until October.


Just to illustrate your point . . .

Quoting 1527. cat6band:
To the experts on here....As we have not seen but one Hurricane this season so far (I think), I hear people on here talk alot about energy that's "bottled up", and hasn't been released due to slower than normal season. What effect will that have on next season, if any? Hope the question makes sense.......


There has been no evidence that any past season activity affects the next years numbers.
Quoting 1531. hydrus:
October always makes me worry more than September, because we get whacked more in that month. September brings mostly storms in from the east coast of Florida and then we get hit , but not as bad. When they come from your region, we are taking direct hits, some serious...Historically, October is definitely S.W.Florida,s worst month.
Hydrus.... I agree 100%..., Things "ARE NOT" dying down in October....
Catch you all later
1545. LargoFl
Flash Flood Warning

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1002 AM CDT FRI SEP 20 2013

TXC349-201715-
/O.CON.KFWD.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-130920T1715Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
NAVARRO TX-
1002 AM CDT FRI SEP 20 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 PM CDT FOR
NAVARRO COUNTY...

AT 959 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED AN
AREA OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING ACROSS PARTS OF NAVARRO COUNTY. THE
HEAVIEST RAINS AS OF 959 AM WERE LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
KERENS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THE OFFICIAL STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL AT CORSICANA IS NOW OVER 6 INCHES.

AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF
NAVARRO COUNTY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF CORSICANA.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING THROUGH LATE
MORNING.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAIN
INCLUDE KERENS AND RICHLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. TURN AROUND...DONT
DROWN. IT ONLY TAKES TWO FEET OF MOVING WATER TO CARRY AWAY MOST
VEHICLES...INCLUDING PICKUPS AND SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES. TAKE A
DIFFERENT ROUTE TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION OR WAIT UNTIL WATER
RECEDES. CHILDREN SHOULD NEVER PLAY AROUND HIGH WATER...DRAINAGE
DITCHES...STORM DRAINS...OR FLOODED STREAMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3200 9608 3180 9651 3182 9672 3192 9679
3228 9636 3230 9630 3226 9628 3225 9624
3220 9620 3221 9616 3217 9618 3215 9616
3215 9610 3209 9612 3208 9606 3202 9606

$$
Quoting 1517. junie1:
I can take jose but no MARILYN 18 years ago storm cost massive devestation to st.thomas not again no power no water 80% of the island had damage..A nice small TS would be nice just for kicks


Be reassured, I don't want devastation. I referred to Marilyn because its track is interesting.
1547. ncstorm
Euro in 24 hours (Islands)

Quoting 1538. hydrus:
Aussie said last night that Southern Taiwan is very mountainous, and can disrupt the storm.


The center is forecast to pass well south of the mountains. But there will be a mess of rain on Taiwan, as well as Luzon.

It'll weaken the storm a bit, but not much at that point.
Quoting 1539. kmanislander:


Firstly, I have no pretensions to being an expert but once the season is over and the water cools that would be it. Some of the OHC is carried away from the tropics by the natural ocean currents and the remainder will be dissipated over the winter months as the cold fronts come down and temperatures drop.Even weak storms will cool the water, as we have seen in the BOC recently, from either upwelling or persistent rain over the same area.

I seriously doubt there is any carry over from one season to the next.


Thanks Kman.....didn't know if there was a "ripple" effect....
1550. LargoFl
DURING
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS DEEP MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

Quoting 1544. kmanislander:
Catch you all later


I hope our AOI will be a strengthening TD when you come back!
1552. hydrus
Quoting 1541. daddyjames:


Just to illustrate your point . . .

Yep. It is possible we may even go into a spring like pattern, which the fall seasonal pattern does resemble in many ways. If this were to happen, any late Sept, early Oct storms that form will likely recurve. That does not put the the Lesser or Greater Antilles in the clear tho, and they do get blasted by powerful Oct storms. Our home grown cyclones will still be a possibility.
Low pressure carving itself out in W TX, coming around the bend and gonna pull some convection and hopefully explode as it nears the coast of TX
1554. hydrus
Quoting 1548. daddyjames:


The center is forecast to pass well south of the mountains. But there will be a mess of rain on Taiwan, as well as Luzon.

It'll weaken the storm a bit, but much at that point.
Yep. Yet another interesting thing to watch pan out.
1555. VR46L
Peak has passed



Quoting 1555. VR46L:
Peak has passed





RIP peak
1557. hydrus
Quoting 1543. PalmBeachWeather:
Hydrus.... I agree 100%..., Things "ARE NOT" dying down in October....
We are actually due for some type of October storm. Wilma in 05 was serious, but other than that, it has been a while since we had a direct hit on S.W. Florida by a large October hurricane.
1558. hydrus
Quoting 1544. kmanislander:
Catch you all later
Peace.
Quoting 1556. VAbeachhurricanes:


RIP peak
My personal opinion....The peak has not yet arrived here in south Florida.....
Quoting 1508. Chucktown:


There will be nothing tropical in the GOM this weekend or next week. The front that is crossing the US right now is going to stall across Florida into early next week. There will be a series of non-tropical lows that will develop and ride along the front bringing lots of rain to central and south Florida through at least next Wednesday. This front coupled with a strong area of high pressure building down the east side of the Appalachians will also aid in "piling" more moisture into Florida. We will not see Jerry until October.


Sounds about right Chuck.
1561. 7544
Quoting 1555. VR46L:
Peak has passed





o now watch the tropics come alive were running late this year nobody told the charts ! :) lol
Quoting 1557. hydrus:
We are actually due for some type of October storm. Wilma in 05 was serious, but other than that, it has been a while since we had a direct hit on S.W. Florida by a large October hurricane.
Hydrus... I am in SE Florida... and "YES" it has been quite a few years "Wilma" ..but I never hold to the statement "We are due"
Quoting 1519. VAbeachhurricanes:
If it wasn't 2013 the action east of the Lesser Antilles would look promising.



Eh, who knows.
1564. ncstorm
Just to note..but we may not be entering a fall like season like some are hoping for if the CPC is right which would mean the waters would still remain warm..

We're looking to have a firework show tonight in SE TX, it's not guaranteed, but highly likely.
Quoting 1552. hydrus:
Yep. It is possible we may even go into a spring like pattern, which the fall seasonal pattern does resemble in many ways. If this were to happen, any late Sept, early Oct storms that form will likely recurve. That does not put the the Lesser or Greater Antilles in the clear tho, and they do get blasted by powerful Oct storms. Our home grown cyclones will still be a possibility.


It is looking more and more that a weak El-Nino maybe arriving this Winter. That could really make for an Interesting December thru March from Texas to North Carolina.
Quoting 1421. indianrivguy:


This is a worthy event. If you live anywhere along Indian River lagoon, please consider participating. The more of "us" that show up, the more likely our elected officials will fulfill their oaths of office and begin protecting our health and water, instead of selling out to corporate polluters..

You no its bad while cast netting for mullet you see a gar fish on Hutchinson Island.
1568. Times2
Quoting 1527. cat6band:
To the experts on here....As we have not seen but one Hurricane this season so far (I think), I hear people on here talk alot about energy that's "bottled up", and hasn't been released due to slower than normal season. What effect will that have on next season, if any? Hope the question makes sense.......

There are NO experts on here! Just sayin....
The low pressure area near Newfoundland is 95L by 240 hours on the ECMWF. Hybrid/non-tropical system.
Quoting 1552. hydrus:
Yep. It is possible we may even go into a spring like pattern, which the fall seasonal pattern does resemble in many ways. If this were to happen, any late Sept, early Oct storms that form will likely recurve. That does not put the the Lesser or Greater Antilles in the clear tho, and they do get blasted by powerful Oct storms. Our home grown cyclones will still be a possibility.


Very much so since this side of the basin is pretty much where all of the activity has been centered. Hopefully not though.
1571. MahFL
The wave at 55 W should normally be developing nicely, as shear is low and not much dry air, but it being 2013 it's NOT !
Quoting 1561. 7544:


o now watch the tropics come alive were running late this year nobody told the charts ! :) lol


The way USAGI strengthened to the strongest thing we've seen in a long time makes me wunder if some switch was thrown.

1573. afj3
Quoting 1564. ncstorm:
Just to note..but we may not be entering a fall like season like some are hoping for if the CPC is right which would mean the waters would still remain warm..



Hi
I saw this map with interest. It can help me with my work. Do you have the link where I can find forecasts for normal, above-normal and below-normal temps? I would greatly appreciate it!
Quoting 1566. StormTrackerScott:


It is looking more and more that a weak El-Nino maybe arriving this Winter. That could really make for an Interesting December thru March from Texas to North Carolina.


Warm neutral. Wonder if much can be said for that.
Quoting 1572. Skyepony:


The way USAGI strengthened to the strongest thing we've seen in a long time makes me wunder if some switch thrown.



Now the Atlantic just needs to take on to this possible trend.
1576. 7544
my concern is that we have not have a major hurricane yet oct will have to be watched closely imo n the caribiean may just spin one up still alot of time left to play catch up !
Quoting 1572. Skyepony:


The way USAGI strengthened to the strongest thing we've seen in a long time makes me wunder if some switch was thrown.

How are you Skye... Haven't seen you around lately?... How are things in Melbourne? Finally a dry day here
When does the next update/advisory on Usagi come out?
Quoting 1573. afj3:


Hi
I saw this map with interest. It can help me with my work. Do you have the link where I can find forecasts for normal, above-normal and below-normal temps? I would greatly appreciate it!


Here is the link

here's what it looks like:
Quoting 1574. daddyjames:


Warm neutral. Wonder if much can be said for that.


I would think about the same conditions apply warm nuetral/ weak El-nino. Either there shouldn't any shortage of cold air with warm moist over riding to create some fun for the south this winter.
Quoting 1555. VR46L:
Peak has passed




Second peak is just before Oct 20th and last one is just before Nov 10th
1582. LargoFl
Quoting 1580. StormTrackerScott:


I would think about the same conditions apply warm nuetral/ weak El-nino. Either there shouldn't any shortage of cold air with warm moist over riding to creat some fun for the south this winter.
scott are they forcasting heavy rains by you too next week?
Quoting 1579. daddyjames:


Here is the link

here's what it looks like:


This Link will get him/her to the page for forecasts/predicts for a variety of timeframes.
Quoting 1582. LargoFl:
scott are they forcasting heavy rains by you too next week?


A very heavy rain event infact. I can easily see up to 6" of rain across Orlando over a 4 to 5 day span.
1585. afj3
Quoting 1583. LAbonbon:


This Link will get him/her to the page for forecasts/predicts for a variety of timeframes.


Thanks!
1586. LargoFl
1587. afj3
Quoting 1579. daddyjames:


Here is the link

here's what it looks like:


Thanks so much! Much appreciated!
Quoting 1567. fortpiercecane1:

You no its bad while cast netting for mullet you see a gar fish on Hutchinson Island.


For those of us who don't fish, or know much about the fish around Florida, what's the significance of the gar?
GFS is giving me a winter storm in 384 hours fantastyland.


1590. LargoFl
Quoting 1584. StormTrackerScott:


A very heavy rain event infact. I can easily see up to 6" of rain across Orlando over a 4 to 5 day span.
yes same here, going to be a wet week for central florida.
Usagi went from 25 knots to 140 knots in 72 hours. Just an epic RI there.
1592. FOREX
Quoting 1582. LargoFl:
scott are they forcasting heavy rains by you too next week?
.MARINE...
As with the entire forecast as a whole, there is still much
uncertainty in the Marine Forecast. Over the short term at least,
the surface pressure pattern should remain fairly weak, with onshore
winds and seas remaining below cautionary levels through the
upcoming weekend. Then, conditions will be subject to change very
rapidly and despite the continued rain threat, it is very uncertain
whether this forcing will come mainly from aloft (which would keep
winds and seas below headline levels), or if a stronger surface low
will develop in conjunction with the upper low. Should this happen,
Cautionary, Advisory, or even some form of Tropical level winds and
seas could enter the picture my the early to middle portion of next
week. It is just too early to tell at this time, so all marine
interests should stay tuned if you are planning to be in the Gulf of
Mexico next week.


Quoting 1583. LAbonbon:


This Link will get him/her to the page for forecasts/predicts for a variety of timeframes.


:o Link wars? LOL - G'morning, raining by you yet?

For those of us in the west and TX/OK - here's hoping this does not pan out. Hopefully the pattern will change in the intervening months:

Quoting 1592. FOREX:
.MARINE...
As with the entire forecast as a whole, there is still much
uncertainty in the Marine Forecast. Over the short term at least,
the surface pressure pattern should remain fairly weak, with onshore
winds and seas remaining below cautionary levels through the
upcoming weekend. Then, conditions will be subject to change very
rapidly and despite the continued rain threat, it is very uncertain
whether this forcing will come mainly from aloft (which would keep
winds and seas below headline levels), or if a stronger surface low
will develop in conjunction with the upper low. Should this happen,
Cautionary, Advisory, or even some form of Tropical level winds and
seas could enter the picture my the early to middle portion of next
week. It is just too early to tell at this time, so all marine
interests should stay tuned if you are planning to be in the Gulf of
Mexico next week.




12Z GFS is showing this scenario now.

or if a stronger surface low
will develop in conjunction with the upper low. Should this happen,
Cautionary, Advisory, or even some form of Tropical level winds and
seas could enter the picture my the early to middle portion of next
week.
1595. LargoFl
Quoting 1592. FOREX:
.MARINE...
As with the entire forecast as a whole, there is still much
uncertainty in the Marine Forecast. Over the short term at least,
the surface pressure pattern should remain fairly weak, with onshore
winds and seas remaining below cautionary levels through the
upcoming weekend. Then, conditions will be subject to change very
rapidly and despite the continued rain threat, it is very uncertain
whether this forcing will come mainly from aloft (which would keep
winds and seas below headline levels), or if a stronger surface low
will develop in conjunction with the upper low. Should this happen,
Cautionary, Advisory, or even some form of Tropical level winds and
seas could enter the picture my the early to middle portion of next
week. It is just too early to tell at this time, so all marine
interests should stay tuned if you are planning to be in the Gulf of
Mexico next week.


thanks for this, have to stay alert here next week for sure.
Quoting 1588. LAbonbon:


For those of us who don't fish, or know much about the fish around Florida, what's the significance of the gar?


A fresh water fish in what should be too salty of an environment for it.
1597. LargoFl
1598. FOREX
Quoting 1594. StormTrackerScott:


12Z GFS is showing this scenario now.

or if a stronger surface low
will develop in conjunction with the upper low. Should this happen,
Cautionary, Advisory, or even some form of Tropical level winds and
seas could enter the picture my the early to middle portion of next
week.


This was out of Tallahassee office.
Another thing I am noticing is the Cold pool near Hawaii is gone as we approach Fall and that is another key piece to the puzzle as we head into Winter.

Quoting 1560. StormTrackerScott:


Sounds about right Chuck.


That does not preclude possible development in the Caribbean.
1601. barbamz

I think now an eyewall replacement really is occuring in Usagi, and it seems to lose a bit of its strength.

If anything, the fact that this season has busted is probably doing more good than bad. The most obvious reason is because we've not seen a lot of death and destruction outside of Manuel-Ingrid. Secondly, this should make forecasters take a step back and reassess what's important in hurricane season forecasting, because we are obviously missing something huge for it to be September 20 with only 2 hurricanes, no majors, and an ACE a little over 23 units. If we find what's wrong, we can incorporate it into the factors to look at when making seasonal predictions, and maybe those seasonal predictions will be more accurate as a result.
1603. LargoFl
Quoting 1596. daddyjames:


A fresh water fish in what should be too salty of an environment for it.
And... Gar are considered a freshwater trash fish. They can live in hostile environments much like the carp... Not a good thing
Quoting 1588. LAbonbon:


For those of us who don't fish, or know much about the fish around Florida, what's the significance of the gar?


We have this fish called an alligator gar here in Texas. Real gnarly looking thing but pretty much harmless.
Quoting 1605. calkevin77:


We have this fish called an alligator gar here in Texas. Real gnarly looking thing but pretty much harmless.
Same family, only the alligator gar grows to much larger proportions..
1607. barbamz

Taiwan radar. Is this already the eye (below right side)?
000
NOUS42 KNHC 201533
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT FRI 20 SEPTEMBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-111

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 21/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 21/1500Z
D. 26.5N 97.0W
E. 21/1730Z TO 21/2130Z
F. SURFACE TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 22/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0211A CYCLONE
C. 220400Z
D. 27.5N 96.5W
E. 22/0530Z TO 22/1200Z
F. SURFACE TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
IS A THREAT.

3. REMARKS:
A. MISSIONS FOR 20/1200Z, 21/0000Z AND 21/1200Z ALL
CANCELED BY NHC.
B. RESEARCH OUTLOOK: NA871 MAY FLY SUNDAY
. TAKEOFF WOULD
BE AT 22/1400Z
C. GLOBAL HAWK SCHEDULED FOR TODAY HAS CANCELED.
8 years ago right now Rita was going thru the FL keys as a 100mph Cane and headed for rapid intensification in the next day. Mass panic would hit the Gulf coast especially TX

cmc=interesting
Quoting 1539. kmanislander:


Firstly, I have no pretensions to being an expert but once the season is over and the water cools that would be it. Some of the OHC is carried away from the tropics by the natural ocean currents and the remainder will be dissipated over the winter months as the cold fronts come down and temperatures drop.Even weak storms will cool the water, as we have seen in the BOC recently, from either upwelling or persistent rain over the same area.

I seriously doubt there is any carry over from one season to the next.


You used the term OHC. I googled that and didn't find anything weather related. What is OHC?
1613. LargoFl
Quoting 1604. PalmBeachWeather:
And... Gar are considered a freshwater trash fish. They can live in hostile environments much like the carp... Not a good thing
Quoting 1605. calkevin77:


We have this fish called an alligator gar here in Texas. Real gnarly looking thing but pretty much harmless.


Quoting 1606. PalmBeachWeather:
Same family, only the alligator gar grows to much larger proportions..


And they get pretty big too



FWS biologist holding an adult alligator gar. Credit: USFWS Image.
Quoting 1593. daddyjames:


:o Link wars? LOL - G'morning, raining by you yet?

For those of us in the west and TX/OK - here's hoping this does not pan out. Hopefully the pattern will change in the intervening months:



Morning, DJ. No, it's just if someone is unfamiliar with NWS/WPC/CPC's products they're likely unaware that there are different time periods these are available for. Didn't intend to rain on your parade!

No rain yet - the skies have been interesting to watch for the last hour or so. Looking to the east, I see white clouds, a little grey, and still some blue skies. Looking to the west, there's just grey and darker grey...no blue to be seen. Slightly breezy.

Not liking the WPC graphic so much - it's got me on the border between 4-5 and 5 . Unlike my neighbors to the west, I don't want it :/
From NOAA

"Most model forecasts continue to predict ENSO-neutral (Nio-3.4 index between -0.5oC and 0.5oC) into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014 (Fig. 6). For the next several seasons, the average of the statistical model forecasts is near -0.5oC, while the average of the dynamical model forecasts is near or just above 0.0oC. Similar to last month, the forecast consensus favors ENSO-neutral (60% chance or greater) through December %u2013 February 2013-14 (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast)."

So we may not get an el ninio winter to make up for this pathetic hurricane season.
Quoting 1606. PalmBeachWeather:
Same family, only the alligator gar grows to much larger proportions..


Yeah. I've seen some pics of folks pull in 110 pounders before. I'll stick to rainbows and bass :)
Oh man in the BEST MOOD ever!! Look at this radar...rain baby!!!! Yeyaz!! Tropics are quite now and Colorado is FINALLY drying out. Good times ahead all!!! :)

Quoting 1596. daddyjames:


A fresh water fish in what should be too salty of an environment for it.


Comprendo.
1620. IKE
99 hour 12Z GFS....


Quoting 1612. PedleyCA:


You used the term OHC. I googled that and didn't find anything weather related. What is OHC?
Ocean Heat Content
1622. LargoFl

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WEST ORANGE...VIDOR...ORANGE...
MAURICEVILLE...BRIDGE CITY...

* UNTIL 145 PM CDT

* AT 1041 AM CDT...RADAR INDICATES THAT ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN
HAS FALLEN ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY SINCE 8 AM. HEAVY SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE OFF AN ON INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS RAINFALL WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS
MAY BEGIN TO OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN
THE ADVISORY AREA THROUGH 130 PM.

A FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS RIVER OR STREAM FLOWS ARE ELEVATED OR PONDING
OF WATER IN URBAN OR OTHER AREAS IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT.

&&
Quoting 1610. stormwatcherCI:


RI lol?
Lake Travis



Quoting 1604. PalmBeachWeather:
And... Gar are considered a freshwater trash fish. They can live in hostile environments much like the carp... Not a good thing


When I was much younger, "trash fish" lined the docks, piers and old bridges as people tossed them aside to die. One of the positive things today is you don't see as much of this anymore. Everything has its place in this world.
Quoting 1615. LAbonbon:


Morning, DJ. No, it's just if someone is unfamiliar with NWS/WPC/CPC's products they're likely unaware that there are different time periods these are available for. Didn't intend to rain on your parade!

No rain yet - the skies have been interesting to watch for the last hour or so. Looking to the east, I see white clouds, a little grey, and still some blue skies. Looking to the east, there's just grey and darker grey...no blue to be seen. Slightly breezy.

Not liking the WPC graphic so much - it's got me on the border between 4-5 and 5 . Unlike my neighbors to the west, I don't want it :/


No rain here to rain on any parade :)

have you tried looking to the west? ;)
Quoting 1617. calkevin77:


Yeah. I've seen some pics od folks pull in 110 pounders before. I'll stick to rainbows and bass :)
You must be north cal with the rainbows statement... Doing well with the Snappers and Dolphin down here lately
Quoting 1625. ChillinInTheKeys:


When I was much younger, "trash fish" lined the docks , piers and old bridges as people tossed them aside to die. One of the positive things today is you don't see as much of this today. Everything has its place in this world.
Chillin.... I hate to see that...I remember seeing catfish, mullet, carp being thrown on the bank just because they were considered unedible...
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Yes, while Texas is getting their much needed rain, something is catching our interest or should, close to the island,,, 56w, 15N....
Quoting 1602. TropicalAnalystwx13:
If anything, the fact that this season has busted is probably doing more good than bad. The most obvious reason is because we've not seen a lot of death and destruction outside of Manuel-Ingrid. Secondly, this should make forecasters take a step back and reassess what's important in hurricane season forecasting, because we are obviously missing something huge for it to be September 20 with only 2 hurricanes, no majors, and an ACE a little over 23 units. If we find what's wrong, we can incorporate it into the factors to look at when making seasonal predictions, and maybe those seasonal predictions will be more accurate as a result.


Hurricanes usually need SSTs at a minimum of 26.5C to form. However, they can form with SSTs considerably below 26.5C, if the upper atmosphere is unusually cold. It's the temperature difference that counts.

What you don't hear so much about is the effect of a lack of vertical instability due to the upper atmosphere being warmer than usual. This has a suppressing effect on cyclogenesis. This might be a more important factor than is realised. Below average vertical instability has been a feature of the last three seasons, 2013 included. It was well above average in 2005.
Quoting 1610. stormwatcherCI:

Wow nice
Quoting 1626. daddyjames:


No rain here to rain on any parade :)

have you tied looking to the west? ;)


Yeah, I caught that after I posted... Funny guy you are. It's obvious your eyes work perfectly fine, why did you have them up against the screen again?.
Quoting 1627. PalmBeachWeather:
You must be north cal with the rainbows statement... Doing well with the Snappers and Dolphin down here lately


Right on. I didn't go so much in Northern Cali but my dad and I would go deep sea overnighters off the channel islands down south. I'd love to do some deep sea excursions out your way. Though I mostly go freshwater, having lived in Oregon for a few years where we had the McKenzie River almost always yielding a good catch. Right when the spring thaw would take place a buddy of mine and I would go dive the rivers and salvage all the snags so we'd have enough slinky lead and lures to last us the season.
1635. JNTenne
Quoting 1625. ChillinInTheKeys:


When I was much younger, "trash fish" lined the docks, piers and old bridges as people tossed them aside to die. One of the positive things today is you don't see as much of this anymore. Everything has its place in this world.
Trash fish? If it was alive it was good enough to eat, at least in the neck of the woods where I grew up...
1636. barbamz
Quoting 1629. HuracanTaino:
Yes, while Texas is getting their much needed rain, something is catching our interest or should, close to the island,,, 56w, 15N....




Worth watching, although it is losing its deeper convection right now.
Quoting 1635. JNTenne:
Trash fish? If it was alive it was good enough to eat, at least in the neck of the woods where I grew up...
OK...Go for it... I'm sure you are a "Duck" fan.... I sure am
Anyone have the latest on 95L?
Quoting 1635. JNTenne:
Trash fish? If it was alive it was good enough to eat, at least in the neck of the woods where I grew up...


Isn't it a pain to get the meat off/difficult to filet?
Quoting 1635. JNTenne:
Trash fish? If it was alive it was good enough to eat, at least in the neck of the woods where I grew up...


Yep... Been there done that... Didn't even know we were poor until I grew up. It's all just a matter of perspective!!!
Quoting 1635. JNTenne:
Trash fish? If it was alive it was good enough to eat, at least in the neck of the woods where I grew up...


Haha I grew up where as long as you had enough ketchup or hot sauce you could eat it.
Quoting 1633. LAbonbon:


Yeah, I caught that after I posted... Funny guy you are. It's obvious your eyes work perfectly fine, why did you have them up against the screen again?.


LOL - I thought there was a scratch-n-sniff . . .
Quoting 1642. calkevin77:


Haha I grew up where as long as you had enough ketchup or hot sauce you could eat it.
There is nothing worse than bad tasting seafood.... I am gagging as I type this
no lunch time update today

big picture

1646. barbamz
Quoting 1639. tater5500:
Anyone have the latest on 95L?



Not much to be seen with its naked circulation at present.

Quoting 1644. PalmBeachWeather:
There is nothing worse than bad tasting seafood.... I am gagging as I type this


Lol If you can make a tasty gumbo then it makes it palatable. Well that and a few cold ones sure help.
Quoting 1589. FunnelVortex:
GFS is giving me a winter storm in 384 hours fantastyland.




Funnel, where are you located? Are you in Keeper's neck of the woods?
Quoting 1646. barbamz:



Not much to be seen with its circulation at present.



THANK YOU! :-) Have a great afternoon!
Quoting 1636. barbamz:




Worth watching, although it is losing its deeper convection right now.

It's just expanding its cloud cover after that then convection will rebuild
Quoting 1644. PalmBeachWeather:
There is nothing worse than bad tasting seafood.... I am gagging as I type this


If it's iced properly, there is no bad tasting seafood!!!
Quoting 1647. calkevin77:


Lol If you can make a tasty gumbo then it makes it palatable. Well that and a few cold ones sure help.
Freshwater...Carp...Saltwater...Bonita...Yuck
Quoting 1648. LAbonbon:


Funnel, where are you located? Are you in Keeper's neck of the woods?


Quoting 1630. FunnelVortex:


somebody should make that there avatar
maybe we all should

lol

Quoting 1651. ChillinInTheKeys:


If it's iced properly, there is no bad tasting seafood!!!
... My favorite "Hogfish" same as Hog Snapper...
Quoting 1621. stormwatcherCI:
Ocean Heat Content


Doh. should have got that one, thank You....
Quoting 1653. FunnelVortex:




Now that's a very specific response :) Packers fan by any chance?
Quoting 1652. PalmBeachWeather:
Freshwater...Carp...Saltwater...Bonita...Yuck


I hear you on the bonita. When the wamer currents would make their way up the West coast every other fish we'd get would be bonita or black perch. Very oily suckers. But on a good day for every ten fish caught on the boat some lucky person would get a nice calico. Those guys are some good eating.
Quoting 1652. PalmBeachWeather:
Freshwater...Carp...Saltwater...Bonita...Yuck


You've just gotta be creative... Never tried the carp but bleed a fresh bonita, cut belly strips for bait, squeeze a lime on the loin pieces and you've got a nice sashimi.
Quoting 1657. LAbonbon:


Now that's a very specific response :) Packers fan by any chance?


Yes, I am.


And this is what Wausau, WI (the city I live in) looks like.

Monkfish used to be regarded as 'trash', here in the UK. Now, monkfish tails go for $15 a pound.
Quoting 1656. PedleyCA:


Doh. should have got that one, thank You....
Ped... Just saw Linda Ronstadt on TV...So sad... She can no longer sing because of Parkinson's disease.. "Blue Bayou"
Quoting 1654. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


somebody should make that there avatar
maybe we all should

lol



Go right ahead.
Quoting 1659. ChillinInTheKeys:


You've just gotta be creative... Never tried the carp but bleed a fresh bonita, cut belly strips for bait, squeeze a lime on the loin pieces and you've got a nice sashimi.
LOL...... No way
1665. MahFL
Tighter coc now.

Quoting 1666. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Texas is getting much needed rain.
1668. LargoFl
Quoting 1666. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Glad to see Texas is finally getting their much needed rain!!!
Quoting 1661. yonzabam:
Monkfish used to be regarded as 'trash', here in the UK. Now, monkfish tails go for $15 a pound.


Similar to lobster...

"In North America, the American lobster did not achieve popularity until the mid-19th century, when New Yorkers and Bostonians developed a taste for it, and commercial lobster fisheries only flourished after the development of the lobster smack,[23] a custom-made boat with open holding wells on the deck to keep the lobsters alive during transport.[24] Prior to this time, lobster was considered a mark of poverty or as a food for indentured servants or lower members of society in Maine, Massachusetts, and the Canadian Maritimes, and servants specified in employment agreements that they would not eat lobster more than twice per week.[25] Lobster was also commonly served in prisons, much to the displeasure of inmates.[26] American lobster was initially deemed worthy only of being used as fertilizer or fish bait, and it was not until well into the twentieth century that it was viewed as more than a low-priced canned staple food."

From Wiki
1671. barbamz
Hmm, Usagi apparently doesn't waste any time to form its new eyewall. But let's wait some more frames to see whether it pans out.


Saved image.

Next frame. Some dryer air gets close to the new eyewall.

Saved image.
Quoting 1618. SouthernIllinois:
Oh man in the BEST MOOD ever!! Look at this radar...rain baby!!!! Yeyaz!! Tropics are quite now and Colorado is FINALLY drying out. Good times ahead all!!! :)

Just don't forget Super Typhoon Usagi gunning for Hong Kong.
Quoting 1668. LargoFl:


And that is the cold front that shuts down the gulf.

The carribean is where anything (fully tropical) will be now.
Quoting 1631. yonzabam:


Hurricanes usually need SSTs at a minimum of 26.5C to form. However, they can form with SSTs considerably below 26.5C, if the upper atmosphere is unusually cold. It's the temperature difference that counts.

What you don't hear so much about is the effect of a lack of vertical instability due to the upper atmosphere being warmer than usual. This has a suppressing effect on cyclogenesis. This might be a more important factor than is realised. Below average vertical instability has been a feature of the last three seasons, 2013 included. It was well above average in 2005.

Well, vertical instability is usually associated with the strength of a particular tropical cyclone, not the formation. We saw plenty of weak storms form in the East Atlantic in 2011 and 2012 despite low vertical instability. I do think it's a factor that needs to be looked into more though.
1675. Torito
Quoting 1673. FunnelVortex:


And that is the cold front that shuts down the gulf.

The carribean is where anything (fully tropical) will be now.

Still got to watch for those subtropical systems that typically form just off the east cost of the united states though. :P
Quoting 1670. LAbonbon:


Similar to lobster...

"In North America, the American lobster did not achieve popularity until the mid-19th century, when New Yorkers and Bostonians developed a taste for it, and commercial lobster fisheries only flourished after the development of the lobster smack,[23] a custom-made boat with open holding wells on the deck to keep the lobsters alive during transport.[24] Prior to this time, lobster was considered a mark of poverty or as a food for indentured servants or lower members of society in Maine, Massachusetts, and the Canadian Maritimes, and servants specified in employment agreements that they would not eat lobster more than twice per week.[25] Lobster was also commonly served in prisons, much to the displeasure of inmates.[26] American lobster was initially deemed worthy only of being used as fertilizer or fish bait, and it was not until well into the twentieth century that it was viewed as more than a low-priced canned staple food."

From Wiki


I have tried lobster three times, and I don't get it . . . Kinda agree with those early Americans.
Quoting 1667. FunnelVortex:


Texas is getting much needed rain.
yep need it so its good all around
1678. Torito
Anyone know what happened to the NHC? their 11:00 update never came out....
Quoting 1677. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yep need it so its good all around


But the question is how much will it actually help?
Quoting 1676. daddyjames:


I have tried lobster three times, and I don't get it . . . Kinda agree with those early Americans.


Where did you have it/how was it prepped?
Quoting 1667. FunnelVortex:


Texas is getting much needed rain.


We seem to have chosen the same words... You were a bit quicker on the draw.
Quoting 1661. yonzabam:
Monkfish used to be regarded as 'trash', here in the UK. Now, monkfish tails go for $15 a pound.
We have monk fish for sale here in Florida at Whole Foods and Fresh Market. I think it is about as good as lobster!
1683. Torito
This might be the last T-wave we get off Africa for a while now..

Quoting 1678. Torito:
Anyone know what happened to the NHC? their 11:00 update never came out....

11 update for what? There are no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic or East Pacific.
Quoting 1678. Torito:
Anyone know what happened to the NHC? their 11:00 update never came out....


Their 11:00 PM update never came out last night eithier.

I guess they gave up on Hurricane Season.
fall svr wx is coming ...creeping south ever so slowly

MARGINAL TO PERHAPS SLIGHT RISK SEVERE
PROBABILITIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE WARRANTED FOR THE D7-8 TIME FRAME
FROM THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SRN PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU.
Quoting 1442. CaribBoy:
55W wave has to take all its sweet times. Slow motion = more time to develop and longer period of weather.

Please ... another Jose or Marilyn (Cat 1 max)


Although I wasn't on island when Hurricane Marilyn hit, the islanders still speak of it. This is a horrible reminder of what happened here:



I've never been able to post pics on this site but if the above doesn't work, here's the link:

Link

Personally, if we get some rain out of the system, I'd be more than happy.

Lindy
Quoting 1678. Torito:
Anyone know what happened to the NHC? their 11:00 update never came out....



what 11 am update from the nhc on what?
1689. Torito
Quoting 1684. TropicalAnalystwx13:

11 update for what? There are no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic or East Pacific.


yea, but the tropical discussion is updated at the same times systems get updated, however it was not today for some reason.
1690. Torito
Quoting 1688. Tazmanian:



what 11 am update from the nhc on what?


The tropical weather discussion. This thing.

Link
Quoting 1680. LAbonbon:


Where did you have it/how was it prepped?


I don't remember . . . Steamed and/or boiled. Not much of a fan of crab also. Too much work . . . Love scallops, though.

And sushi/niguri/sashimi - delicious!
We need more rain (or snow) in the west, or else the drought will just keep regenerating like this every year.

Quoting 1689. Torito:


yea, but the tropical discussion is updated at the same times systems get updated, however it was not today for some reason.

The tropical discussion for the Atlantic is updated at approximately the same time as the TWO. 8am, 2pm, 8pm, 2am.
Quoting 1689. Torito:


yea, but the tropical discussion is updated at the same times systems get updated, however it was not today for some reason.


The Tropical Outlook and Tropical Discussion are only done at set times, not in conjunction with storms.
Quoting 1567. fortpiercecane1:

You no its bad while cast netting for mullet you see a gar fish on Hutchinson Island.


I agree.. someone caught a three ft. Alligator Gar just north of Jensen Causeway two months back... I, along with others will be going to Washington Oct 3 to speak to our elected officials about all this.. totally destroying the most diverse estuary, and most diverse fisheries in all of north America to protect corporate polluters.. again.
1696. Torito
Quoting 1693. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The tropical discussion for the Atlatnic is updated at approximately the same time as the TWO. 8am, 2pm, 8pm, 2am.


There is usually an 11:00 AM and PM one too, though.
Quoting 1691. daddyjames:


I don't remember . . . Steamed and/or boiled. Not much of a fan of crab also. Too much work . . . Love scallops, though.

And sushi/niguri/sashimi - delicious!


Hmmm, you should try it grilled. IMO, absolutely delicious.

OTOH, not a fan of scallops/sushi, etc. It looks like we have opposite tastes.

Okay, back on topic now :o
1698. Torito
Quoting 1694. daddyjames:


The Tropical Outlook and Tropical Discussion are only done at set times, not in conjunction with storms.


If nothing really changes with the storms though, they get updated at the same intervals as the tropical discussion though.. Im not talking about special advisories, just normal updates.
Quoting 1682. WarEagle8:
We have monk fish for sale here in Florida at Whole Foods and Fresh Market. I think it is about as good as lobster!
However, I prefer Florida Gulf STONE CRABS....season starts 10/15.
Lots of rain on tap from Texas to FL.

Hong Kong might have to use rare "Hurricane Signal Number 10" to warn people in city. Number 10 signals had only been used twice in last 30 years (1999 and 2012). Usagi could also become the strongest typhoon to directly hit Hong Kong in a while.
Quoting 1696. Torito:


There is usually an 11:00 AM and PM one too, though.
I believe that's for when there is active tropical storm warning/watches or hurricane warning/watches. We don't have one now.


Could be the next Invest,just saying.
1705. Torito
Quoting 1702. Bluestorm5:
Hong Kong might have to use rare "Hurricane Signal Number 10" to warn people in city. Number 10 signals had only been used twice in last 30 years (1999 and 2012). Usagi could also become the strongest typhoon to directly hit Hong Kong in a while.


York and Vicente. :P
1706. Torito
Quoting 1703. Bluestorm5:
I believe that's for when there is active tropical storm warning/watches or hurricane warning/watches. We don't have one now.



Ahh ok
1707. 7544
Quoting 1704. stormpetrol:


Could be the next Invest,just saying.


i agree this one looks better than 95l imo thanks wait ,watch and see


Quoting 1704. stormpetrol:


Could be the next Invest,just saying.


Looking better each hour.


Quoting 1691. daddyjames:


I don't remember . . . Steamed and/or boiled. Not much of a fan of crab also. Too much work . . . Love scallops, though.

And sushi/niguri/sashimi - delicious!


As far as seafood goes, which I'm a big fan of, lobster is pretty far down on my list. We sauteed some Florida lobster chunks in coconut oil the other night... I have moved them up a bit.

Smelled kinda like a day at the beach.

In other news... The sun is finally shining upon the Keys!!!
1710. ncstorm
12z CMC
up to 138 hours
1711. Torito
Quoting 1697. LAbonbon:


Hmmm, you should try it grilled. IMO, absolutely delicious.

OTOH, not a fan of scallops/sushi, etc. It looks like we have opposite tastes.

Okay, back on topic now :o
Yes.... Butterfly the tail, baste with butter and throw them on the grill... Shell side down first until it turns orange... Flip over and brush again with butter... Grill until the meat is opaque... At least with Florida bugs (spiny lobster)
1713. VR46L
I guess its the 18th of October we next have to worry about ..

1714. barbamz

The frantic circulation of Usagi. But you see the entrainment of some dryer air in the last frames.
Click to enlarge.
1715. hydrus
Quoting 1699. WarEagle8:
However, I prefer Florida Gulf STONE CRABS....season starts 10/15.
We fished stone crabs on Captiva way back..They were 4 bucks a pound then.
1716. IKE
Looking at the 12Z GFS I begin to see signs of fall weather in the SE USA...after next week.
Quoting 1713. VR46L:
I guess its the 18th of October we next have to worry about ..

Yes... October is not a good month for south Florida
Quoting 1695. indianrivguy:


I agree.. someone caught a three ft. Alligator Gar just north of Jensen Causeway two months back... I, along with others will be going to Washington Oct 3 to speak to our elected officials about all this.. totally destroying the most diverse estuary, and most diverse fisheries in all of north America to protect corporate polluters.. again.


Some of these alligator gars are huge. Since they can live up to 20 years that goes to show that they have had ample time to eat and grow. Its not uncommon for folks to pull 100+ pounders in many of the rivers and lakes here in TX.
Quoting 1698. Torito:


If nothing really changes with the storms though, they get updated at the same intervals as the tropical discussion though.. Im not talking about special advisories, just normal updates.


Hmm, I have never noticed that.
Quoting 1716. IKE:
Looking at the 12Z GFS I begin to see signs of fall weather in the SE USA...after next week.


It sure looks that way
1721. Torito
What happened to usagi's page on this site? it only says this and nothing else:

Storm Activity: -999/-999/-999 - 10/20/2013

xD
1722. Torito
and why is this here? 0.0

Jul. 02 00 GMT 21.4 110.0 60 -999 Tropical Storm
1723. hydrus
Quoting 1683. Torito:
This might be the last T-wave we get off Africa for a while now..

yep..Especially with the shear in the MDR.
1724. JNTenne
Quoting 1640. daddyjames:


Isn't it a pain to get the meat off/difficult to filet?
Dad was not much of a filet'er.. we learned to be careful with the bones.. and sometimes it seemed like there where more bones left over on the plate than meat in our stomachs! Thank God for rice and beans! (and Tabasco)
1725. barbamz

MIMC Usagi
Remember this?
Wow. Doing about as lovely as my fantasy football league lol.



Larger image
With all this rain headed my way, I'm headed out to clean out my gutters.

After that, I think I'm headed to the market...all this talk has given me a hankering for some seafood :P

Have a nice day, everyone!
Quoting 1725. barbamz:

MIMC Usagi


Looks like the eye might miss Taiwan.
Quoting 1726. calkevin77:
Remember this?
Wow. Doing about as lovely as my fantasy football league lol.



When are you doing this again? I want to cash in next time.
1730. barbamz
Quoting 1728. yonzabam:


Looks like the eye might miss Taiwan.


It should do so:


Radar loop Taiwan/Usagi.
DISCUSSUION...
A WET PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WEEKEND...AS AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER TROUGH TAPS INTO DEEP
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF AS WELL AS MOISTURE
FROM THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL WHILE PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND MAY APPROACH 2.25 TO 2.5 INCHES OVER THE
WEEKEND...THEREFORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA IN LATER
FORECAST PACKAGES.

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF NOT PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BUT INSTEAD HAVE IT HANGING UP OVER THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...WHOLESALE CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
FORECAST SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES NOW IN THE
FORECAST FOR EACH DAY. AS A MATTER OF FACT...SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY
EVEN MONDAY NOW LOOK TO BE FAIRLY WET AS A MID LEVEL WEAKNESS LEFT
BEHIND BY THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION WITH A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA. RAIN
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE SOUTH...HOWEVER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. 11

&&

Here's hoping the folks in S. Texas get just what they need...and not too much of it all at once....
Quoting 1729. FunnelVortex:


When are you doing this again? I want to cash in next time.


Haha that wasn't me who created it.

It was Max. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/trHUrrIXC5MMX/sh ow.html

But yeah there would have been quite a nice jackpot had it been setup as such...although I'm fairly sure the terms of service on here would not agree to that :)
Quoting 1730. barbamz:


It should do so:


Radar loop Taiwan/Usagi.


If the eye misses it shouldn't get disrupted too much.
Quoting 1726. calkevin77:
Remember this?
Wow. Doing about as lovely as my fantasy football league lol.



Larger image



yep we all busted are hurricane forcast
well am done with this hurricane season and 2014 season next season too look forword two is 2015 hurricane season
Quoting 1725. barbamz:

MIMC Usagi


Wow that is an excellent portrayal of the eyewall replacement. Send it to Lee!
Quoting 1730. barbamz:


It should do so:


Radar loop Taiwan/Usagi.


That's a typhoon headed for Hong Kong. Might weaken a bit, but its size and former strength means it'll 'do an Ike'.
watch out for invest 96L AND INVEST 97L SOON.
1739. barbamz
Quoting 1733. FunnelVortex:


If the eye misses it shouldn't get disrupted too much.


Some disruption of the northern part of its circulation could happen though due to the high mountains.

Quoting 1734. Tazmanian:



yep we all busted are hurricane forcast


Errr umm I think we all meant for our forecast to be applied to the Pacific season. Yeah that's it :)

watch out for invest 96L AND INVEST 97L SOON.



Quoting 1738. hurricanes2018:
watch out for invest 96L AND INVEST 97L SOON.




nop
hurricane season ends with 9-2-0
1744. barbamz
Quoting 1736. daddyjames:


Wow that is an excellent portrayal of the eyewall replacement. Send it to Lee!


Lol, he apparently just did it by himself (before me). I'm too late.
good outflow from north of disturbance east of the islands There is low clouds streaming to an area which appears to have a LLC
Quoting 1743. Tazmanian:
hurricane season ends with 9-2-0
You do realized we got 2 and half months left, right?
Quoting 1746. Bluestorm5:
You do realized we got 2 and half months left, right?
and when another month goes by and nothing major storms have formed, you will say hey guys we stil have all of november lol
1748. 7544
Quoting 1745. stoormfury:
good outflow from north of disturbance east of the islands There is low clouds streaming to an area which appears to have a LLC


this might be 96l soon imo. maybe a yellow by the nhc sometime tonight looks like it may head west ?
Quoting 1746. Bluestorm5:
You do realized we got 2 and half months left, right?



in a norml year may be but this is 2013 and what I have seen so far in 2013 hurricane season could vary well end vary early this year
Quoting 1747. SuperStorm093:
and when another month goes by and nothing major storms have formed, you will say hey guys we stil have all of november lol
Since blog is not active, I guess it's okay to respond to you...

You're the one coming on here in August and have done nothing but repeatedly downcast the season. Honestly, you never know what's going to occur in hurricane season. Forecasts busted badly, yes... but we are still at the risk for "The One". WPAC had been quiet most of year until Usagi and that super typhoon is "The One" of season considering it's heading directly for Hong Kong.
Quoting 1743. Tazmanian:
hurricane season ends with 9-2-0



uhhhh....hurricane season is NOT over......not for another 2 months.......stop trolling please
Quoting 1749. Tazmanian:



in a norml year may be but this is 2013 and what I have seen so far in 2013 hurricane season could vary well end vary early this year
We still got Western Caribbean fuel, though... we could get something there in October like it historically does. Wait and see.
Quoting 1743. Tazmanian:
hurricane season ends with 9-2-0


Taz cheer up, you sound down right depressed about the season. There's a zero percent chance we end up 9-2-0. Danger still lurks, and as Andrew proved, even the dullest of seasons can provide a storm or two that is unforgettable. And your not coming back until 2015? Come on, your a tropics addict like most of us here, see you later today and tomorrow. Still think there's a 55-65% chance we'll get one or more majors this year, hang in there.
95L rip


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 20 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...LOCATED
ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF TAMPICO...IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. SINCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
DECREASED...AND THE LOW IS LESS DEFINED...THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT HAS DIMINISHED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...
HOWEVER...COULD STILL FAVOR SOME SLIGHT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT IN THE
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE MISSION SCHEDULED
FOR TODAY WAS CANCELLED.

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF
BERMUDA IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE...SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SYSTEM MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

Quoting 1753. Tribucanes:


Taz cheer up, you sound down right depressed about the season. There's a zero percent chance we end up 9-2-0. Danger still lurks, and as Andrew proved, even the dullest of seasons can provide a storm or two that is unforgettable. And your not coming back until 2015? Come on, your a tropics addict like most of us here, see you later today and tomorrow. Still think there's a 55-65% chance we'll get one or more majors this year, hang in there.



2014 season will be a EL nino season and you no what happens in EL nino season
Quoting 1726. calkevin77:
Remember this?
Wow. Doing about as lovely as my fantasy football league lol.



Larger image
I'm feeling pretty comfortable at 12/3/0.
Quoting 1752. Bluestorm5:
We still got Western Caribbean fuel, though... we could get something there in October like it historically does. Wait and see.


ya, didn't Wilma, the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the atlantic basin, occur in LATE OCTOBER?? I agree that the season is not over by a long shot....all these folks who were calling the season over in august sure got fooled when we had 4 storms or so in the first couple weeks of sept. October can bring the same thing. personally, I think anyone whos calling the season over or a bust are just trolling for comments and crying for attention. there are still 2 months left in season, plenty of very warm SST in the gulf and caribean, and we are entering the time of the year when it historically produces TS in said areas.
Quoting 1725. barbamz:

MIMC Usagi


Outer eyewall contracting as inner eyewall collapses, cycle may be quicker than forecasted. I see no dry air issues with Usagi.
Quoting 1756. SouthTampa:
I'm feeling pretty comfortable at 12/3/0.


Me not so much at 18/8/4 :D
Quoting 1755. Tazmanian:



2014 season will be a EL nino season and you no what happens in EL nino season


that's funny, I thought 2012 and 2013 were SUPPOSED to be elnino years, but guess what....it never happened. the same thing can happen in 2014. just my opinion, but I think anyone who makes predictions that far off and thinks its set in stone don't really know what they are talking about in the first place. sort of like believing the model when its 200 hrs out... and even in el nino years, there is still tropical activity, it just happens to be surpressed a bit.
1761. Torito
Quoting 1759. skycycle:


Me not so much at 18/8/4 :D


I said 16-3-1 so im off too :P
1762. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 20 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...LOCATED
ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF TAMPICO...IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. SINCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
DECREASED...AND THE LOW IS LESS DEFINED...THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT HAS DIMINISHED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...
HOWEVER...COULD STILL FAVOR SOME SLIGHT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT IN THE
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE MISSION SCHEDULED
FOR TODAY WAS CANCELLED.

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF
BERMUDA IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE...SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SYSTEM MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Ex-Manuel seems to be visiting Texas, and it shows even in the windshear loop. Lots of moisture that, on WV loop, even looks rather like a tropical disturbance. :-o

On the bright side, the TX system seems to be progressing more quickly, so maybe it'll clear the state instead of stalling -- not sure what recent forecast is on that. 95L being drawn up toward TX, with moisture converging between it and ex-Manuel's moisture -- could be problematic but maybe will end more quickly than previously expected....or not.

Rain expected through Saturday last I heard.Arkansas (& NE TX) may be in for some big rains by the looks of the WV loop (but not this one due to logo). In view of ex-Manuel seeming to get sucking into Texas so abundantly, not sure how long a rain event it will turn out to be, but might clear out nicely, afterwards.

Let's face it. At this point, it's more likely that we get a blizzard before we see another hurricane. lol
1765. barbamz
Quoting 1758. TheDawnAwakening:


Outer eyewall contracting as inner eyewall collapses, cycle may be quicker than forecasted. I see no dry air issues with Usagi.


Comparatively "dry", lol.



1766. IKE

Quoting muddertracker:
Let's face it. At this point, it's more likely that we get a blizzard before we see another hurricane. lol
You could be right.
well, the first hurricane of the season, Humberto, acted just like i thought it would. continued to meander into cooler waters and lose strength. i may have missed it... i am behind reading my spam and email, has anyone put forth an explanation of how cool the water in the Atlantic is, especially that far south? entire area from Africa to Caribbean was in the darker reds and the gulf was in the next level before, like during 2005. is this normal, or was 2005 closer to normal?
Quoting 1761. Torito:


I said 16-3-1 so im off too :P


those numbers are still very possible.... one major brings it to 10-3-1 and then all you would need are 6 ts to round it out. plenty of time for that to happen. I think we will probably even get subtropical system after the season ends (probably something forming on the tail end of a front)
1769. Torito
Quoting 1768. floridafisherman:


those numbers are still very possible.... one major brings it to 10-3-1 and then all you would need are 6 ts to round it out. plenty of time for that to happen. I think we will probably even get subtropical system after the season ends (probably something forming on the tail end of a front)


Yea it is possible, but more likely to not happen than it is to happen
Texas getting great beneficial rains from Manuels' moisture.

hurricane season is like baseball. we spend weeks looking for and praying for something major to happen with our favorite team. and then they go into a slump, and weeks go by. then maybe things pick up a little just before the playoffs. and then you have the main thrust of the entire season, the playoffs. will the playoffs be a bust this year? and whoop! i am enjoying this rain!!!came down here in Bryan slow enough to soak into the ground for the most part. does not go well with newspapers, though, with the number of customers complaining their paper was wet.
1772. dabirds
Quoting 1770. ILwthrfan:
Texas getting great beneficial rains from Manuel moisture.

Looked like you finally got some, we got another 1.1" w/ it still drizzling a bit, a very welcome and needed 2" in S C IL. Will keep the dust down on the annual 4 wheeler ride tomorrow.
1773. pottery
Quoting floridafisherman:


those numbers are still very possible.... one major brings it to 10-3-1 and then all you would need are 6 ts to round it out. plenty of time for that to happen. I think we will probably even get subtropical system after the season ends (probably something forming on the tail end of a front)


Fishermen are the most Optimistic people I know...

And I should know.

:)::
1774. Torito
95L

1775. Torito
Remnants of Manuel:

Quoting 1760. floridafisherman:


that's funny, I thought 2012 and 2013 were SUPPOSED to be elnino years, but guess what....it never happened. the same thing can happen in 2014. just my opinion, but I think anyone who makes predictions that far off and thinks its set in stone don't really know what they are talking about in the first place. sort of like believing the model when its 200 hrs out... and even in el nino years, there is still tropical activity, it just happens to be surpressed a bit.


It's a while since we had a strong El Nino. Next time it happens, the global temperature record will be smashed, and there could be some 'interesting' phenomena.
1777. Torito
Cold front attaching to ex-manuel's moisture:

1778. Torito
next invest IMO:



Like someone flipped a switch and we went back to June. Marine Layer again this morning. There are a couple of eddies out there too. Hey Joe, are you under this mess this morning or are you too far inland.
1780. Torito
T-Waves:

If I am right we are at 9 / 2 / 0. I would say we will finish at 16 / 6 / 3 ! With 1 major , cat 4 or 5 ! Just my best guess , has anyone seen the 2014 Farmers almanac , look at Florida , we will be dodging storms , and hurricanes , all year !
Quoting 1772. dabirds:
Looked like you finally got some, we got another 1.1" w/ it still drizzling a bit, a very welcome and needed 2" in S C IL. Will keep the dust down on the annual 4 wheeler ride tomorrow.


We only got just over a TRACE again here, didn't even get a little puddle. lol just can't seem to buy a drop here lately. Everything evaporates before it closes in on I-57.



Most of the time this stations records about 90% the value that I record in my three different gages; however as of right now I'm just under 0.10". Bringing our 8 week total to a whopping 0.35"




I got imagine a good bit of mud down there for four-wheeling day, that will certainly make things funner, or at least messier!
1783. dabirds
The .8 soaked in pretty fast, but imagine it will depend on whether sun pops out this afternoon or not.

Sorry it dried up, thought radar showed a nice little yellow spot around you.

Should be a couple of fun weekends, Cubs-Cards in StL next Sat.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Its starting to really come down here in downtown Austin right now. One station is reporting 3.7 inches per hour rainfall rate. Come to papa.
Good Afternoon. Given that this Blog is based out of the US and a large portion of the Bloggers on here are from Florida and the Gulf Coast regions (for obvious reasons), we tend to discuss "the one" in terms of memorable past Conus strikes or potential/future storms.

The tropics spans both basins (Atlantic and Pacific) and while the Atlantic has been suppressed this year, they have had a bang up season on the Pacific side and we are still counting deaths in Mexico from the two recent storms; this season will be memorable for them in terms of the "one" this year even though none were major hurricanes.

The United States have been very lucky since 2006 in terms of major hurricane landfalls but we have also had our share of flooding/surge issues from several "mere" tropical storms in recent years.

The "one" could come in any given season but so far this year, I am grateful (and particularly at the pump in recent weeks) that we have not gotten a storm in the Gulf disrupting gas production and that insurance reserves can build up a little bit (flooding claims are still taking a bit hit this year regardless).

Hurricane tracking is fun but the lack of major strikes in any given season for the Caribbean/US/Mexico is a better outcome in any given year regardless of the predictions and whether they busted or not.

We have seen some unusual things in recent years but Mother Nature is the only one in control; we over predicted this year (bust forecast) but we also grossly under predicted the record-setting 2005 season (another bust forecast).

The next several seasons will probably be just as interesting.

Quoting 1779. PedleyCA:


Like someone flipped a switch and we went back to June. Marine Layer again this morning. There are a couple of eddies out there too. Hey Joe, are you under this mess this morning or are you too far inland.


Marine layer is strong in the SF valley today. Love it, love it, love it.
Quoting 1773. pottery:


Fishermen are the most Optimistic people I know...

And I should know.

:)::
And biggest liars
1789. hydrus
Quoting 1786. weathermanwannabe:
Good Afternoon. Given that this Blog is based out of the US and a large portion of the Bloggers on here are from Florida and the Gulf Coast regions (for obvious reasons), we tend to discuss "the one" in terms of memorable past Conus strikes or potential/future storms.

The tropics spans both basins (Atlantic and Pacific) and while the Atlantic has been suppressed this year, they have had a bang up season on the Pacific side and we are still counting deaths in Mexico from the two recent storms; this season will be memorable for them in terms of the "one" this year even though none were major hurricanes.

The United States have been very lucky since 2006 in terms of major hurricane landfalls but we have also had our share of flooding/surge issues from several "mere" tropical storms in recent years.

The "one" could come in any given season but so far this year, I am grateful (and particularly at the pump in recent weeks) that we have not gotten a storm in the Gulf disrupting gas production and that insurance reserves can build up a little bit (flooding claims are still taking a bit hit this year regardless).

Hurricane tracking is fun but the lack of major strikes in any given season for the Caribbean/US/Mexico is a better outcome in any given year regardless of the predictions and whether they busted or not.

We have seen some unusual things in recent years but Mother Nature is the only one in control; we over predicted this year (bust forecast) but we also grossly under predicted the record-setting 2005 season (another bust forecast).

The next several seasons will probably be just as interesting.

Good post. I do count Sandy as a big one for the U.S. There are a few that would agree with me.
]
Quoting MahFL:
The wave at 55 W should normally be developing nicely, as shear is low and not much dry air, but it being 2013 it's NOT !
Agree, at this time of the year(around or just past peak) waves at that position and with marginal or good environmental conditions should develop rather quick... but as you say is 2013,,,don't expect much, out of it...