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Mexican Death Toll 57 From Manuel and Ingrid; 95L Likely to Bring More Rain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:20 PM GMT on September 18, 2013

Tropical Storm Manuel has regenerated into a strong tropical storm just west of Mexico's Baja Peninsula this Wednesday morning, and the destructive storm promises to bring even more misery to a Mexican nation already reeling from the combined one-two punch of Manuel on its Pacific coast and Hurricane Ingrid on the Atlantic coast earlier this week. The two storms, which hit Mexico within 24 hours of each other on Monday and Tuesday, are now being blamed for the deaths of at least 57 people in Mexico. It was the first time since 1958 that two tropical storms or hurricanes had hit both of Mexico's coasts within 24 hours. Hardest hit was the Acapulco region on Mexico's Pacific coast, where the airport is barely functioning, many roads still flooded and blocked, and tens of thousands of tourists are scrambling to get home. Acapulco received 7.41" of rain from Manuel September 12 - 16, and much higher amounts of rain fell in the surrounding mountains. Newly regenerated Manuel promises to bring 5 - 10" of rain to the Mexican state of Sinaloa, which is likely to cause dangerous flash floods and mudslides.


Figure 1. A soldier wades through the water at the airport of Acapulco, after floods from Tropical Storm Manuel hit on September 17, 2013. Image credit: Pedro Pardo/AFP/Getty Images).


Figure 2. View of a street in Acapulco, Guerrero state, Mexico, after a landslide caused by heavy rains from Tropical Storm Manuel on September 15, 2013. Image credit: CLAUDIO VARGAS/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. Storm sandwich: Tropical Storm Manuel and Hurricane Ingrid lay siege to Mexico on September 15, 2013. Tropical Storm Manuel came ashore on the Pacific coast near Manzanillo on the afternoon of September 15, and Hurricane Ingrid followed suit from the Atlantic on September 16. Image credit: NASA.

Invest 95L headed for Bay of Campeche
Waterlogged Mexico has yet another tropical rain-making system to worry about this week. An area of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) over the Yucatan Peninsula will emerge into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Wednesday night. Satellite loops show that 95L already has a pronounced spin and a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is moderate, and ocean temperatures are warm, 29°C (84°F.) A hurricane hunter flight is scheduled to investigate 95L on Thursday afternoon.

Invest 95L will likely stay trapped in the Bay of Campeche
Wind shear is expected to be low to moderate over the next five days. There is some dry air over the Bay of Campeche, but I doubt this will be an impediment to development, given the low to moderate wind shear. NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 70% and 5-day odds of 80% in their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook. Steering currents will be weak in the Bay of Campeche over the next five days, and most of the models predict that 95L will stay trapped there, moving slowly and erratically. However, the UKMET model and approximately 20% of the 20 individual forecasts from the GFS ensemble and European Center ensemble predict that 95L will turn north next week and hit the U.S. Gulf Coast. A cold front and associated upper-level trough of low pressure are expected to push southeastwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and it is possible that the upper-level westerly winds associated with this weather system will reach far enough south to pull 95L out of the Bay of Campeche. It typically takes a stronger upper-level trough of low pressure to flush a tropical cyclone out of the Bay of Campeche, though, and 95L will most likely stay put. Regardless, tropical moisture from 95L will likely stream northeastwards along the cold front over much of the U.S. Gulf Coast on Saturday and Sunday, bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4". A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form along this front over the Southeast U.S. on Sunday, spreading heavy rains up the East Coast early next week.

Typhoon Usagi headed for Taiwan
In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Usagi has intensified to a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Further intensification is likely over the next few days, as Usagi is over very warm waters of 29 - 30°C with high heat content, and is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. The official JTWC forecast brings Usagi to a Category 3 storm before encountering Taiwan, when interaction with land could potentially weaken the storm. Satellite images show Usagi has developed a prominent eye surrounded by intense thunderstorms that reach high into the atmosphere. The typhoon is expected to pass north of the Philippines Islands on Friday, and will threaten southern Taiwan on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 995. Pallis:
You do realize that Gore is related to Cheney, the Hapsburgs, Bush, Romney, and Obama? Quite the coincidence ehh? Lemmings understand history and politics just as well as they do weather phenomena, but they all rush off the cliff when the conditions are right. Hard lessons for an unfair world.


And they're all related to....(drum roll, please)...Kevin Bacon! Six degrees of separation, my friend.
Quoting 989. indianrivguy:


big sugar interfered with that election, IMO, Al Gore won Florida.. and I did NOT vote for him.. jes saying...


it would be interesting to see what is going on in that parallel universe where Gore did win . . . makes you wonder about what might been.
Quoting 979. Hurricane1956:
If I may ask a question please.What we can expect from this system here in South Florida over the weekend and into next week,our channel 4 Met,said last night that he thinks that apart from what ever become of 95L,he thinks that a low or Sub-tropical low might form West of South Florida,and to expect a lot of rain for this are starting Sunday.Any thoughts?.
Sounds close. We have been getting an inch plus a day here for a while already. I noticed this morning that the ground is oozing water into the gutters. It is soggy!!
ADT couldn't even position the circulation within the CDO. Just awful.

Quoting 981. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Nope, not me. Take a look at storm tracks from 1995-2003. With the exception of the strong El-Nino year of 1997, each of those seasons featured multiple 2+ strikes on the CONUS. The 1930s and 1950s saw impacts from long track Cape-Verde systems. I know it is climatolgically favored, but going 5 years without a long track Cape-Verde hurricane hitting the CONUS is striking as well as the fact that FL. hasn't been hit by a hurricane since 2006. Now tell me that is not striking to you?


wasn't beryl a cat 1 at landfall last year? or was that the year before...
local weather here just said that if 95l gets picked by the front on saturday it will be just a low going northeast over florida with some rain, and if the front doesnt pick it up it will a tropical storm and go into mexico where ingrid did
Quoting 993. daddyjames:


Shh - you'll wake the hurricane gods back up. Actually from the late 1960's until the 1990's no hurricanes of any significance hit South Florida - so going this long is not necessarily odd.
1960 had Donna, 1966 had Alma and Inez, 1968 Hurricane Gladys, 1973 Agnes, 1975 Eloise, 1979 David, 1985 Kate and Elena, 1987 Floyd, 1992 Andrew. Most is 6 years. So something has to give here eventually.
wow now the 8pm models dont have 95l going anywhere near louisiana or alabama or florida... i kinda thought everything would change that way
Quoting 1006. darbyderp:


wasn't beryl a cat 1 at landfall last year? or was that the year before...


Beryl was a TS at landfall.
Quoting 1006. darbyderp:


wasn't beryl a cat 1 at landfall last year? or was that the year before...
Beryl was a 70 mph. tropical storm at peak intensity that hit near Jacksonville, FL. in 2012.
how would you like two walk up two this

Link
the central florida sheild is up still we will get nothing
Quoting 1012. Tazmanian:
how would you like two walk up two this

Link
Sure I guess if you want to get eaten.
Quoting 1010. Astrometeor:


Beryl was a TS at landfall.


i knew the guy on the radio sounded drunk when he got to the third round of yelling "CAT ONE! CAT ONE!" thats what i get for listening to the college station lol
still though, was that changed post season? NOPE
EDIT: thx caleb :)
Quoting 1014. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Sure I guess if you want to get eaten.



i gus he was tired and wanted a free night stay lol
not one model shows 95l going anywhere near florida now as i thought would happen yesterday
20130919.0115.goes13.x.ir1km_bw.09LHUMBERTO.30kts-1009mb-321N-435W.100pc.jpg
Quoting 1008. GTstormChaserCaleb:
1960 had Donna, 1966 had Alma and Inez, 1968 Hurricane Gladys, 1973 Agnes, 1975 Eloise, 1979 David, 1985 Kate and Elena, 1987 Floyd, 1992 Andrew. Most is 6 years. So something has to give here eventually.


David barely brushed the coast, Kate & Elena (1985), Floyd 1987 did very little damage.

I did say since the late 60's and "of any significance". Really, one of the reasons that Andrew is remembered was that it was an extremely harsh wake-up call!

Everyone, except for old-timers, had forgotten what a hurricane could do. It was a 20 year-long span that SoFl was significantly impacted by a landfalling hurricane.

I was there.
1020. sar2401
Quoting Astrometeor:


Mine has yet to bust...Woot!

Astro, you, me, and a few others were among the minority that were downcasters so far this season. I think I'll be close with my guess about 12 named storms, but it appears I'm going to be way off on my 8 hurricanes. I may even make it with the 3 majors, but I'm quite surprised with the lack of hurricanes at all this year. I thought the total storms would be below average but also thought that most storms that got named would be Humberto/Fernand types. They would from either in the central Atlantic or the BOC,because that's where the best instability and leastr affect from SAL would be. I thought the total numbers would be low because the SAL wouldn't slack off until mid-August and the Texas Death Ridge would keep down instability in the Gulf. I didn't realize that the effects of the ridge and the long non-tropical rainy season in the Gulf would stabilize things until September, and that we'd still have the SAL and dry air even now. I knew it would be a strange season, but not quite this strange. :-)
Quoting 1019. daddyjames:


David barely brushed the coast, Kate & Elena (1985), Floyd 1987 did very little damage.

I did say since the late 60's and "of any significance". Really, one of the reasons that Andrew is remembered was that it was an extremely harsh wake-up call!

Everyone, except for old-timers, had forgotten what a hurricane could do. It was a 20 year-long span that SoFl was significantly impacted by a landfalling hurricane.

I was there.
I guess what I was trying to say was FL. in general taking a direct hit by a hurricane, last one was Ernesto in 2006.
Quoting 931. JrWeathermanFL:
Can we get a normal season??

2009-El Nino
2010-Pretty good
2011-8 straight TS
2012-Nothing stronger than 115mph Cat. 3
2013-Do I even have to explain :P


Do you mean nothing stronger than a 85MPH CAT 1 lol

2013 lalala lalaa BUST just BUST (except for the BOC, of course... )
1023. Pallis
Quoting 994. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Sure it's surprising given the past two decades, but there isn't exactly a rule that says at least one hurricane should hit the state every X years.

Exactly. It is weather, although there is such a thing as due time. Even I admit it as a matter of statistics, and Florida is in the cross hairs by accumulation of hydrostatic aggregation passed on throughout these recent years without cause for concern. We could go 100 years without a major Hurricane, but the most likely scenario is one within the next 5 years starting now(or last year if you prefer). Who shall predict it? Neither the computer or the meteorologist can predict it, because neither have the necessary input to come up with the solution. Mother nature ya'll. Heads up!
Quoting 1005. MiamiHurricanes09:
ADT couldn't even position the circulation within the CDO. Just awful.



Is that just a mistake or is really that bad of a positioning?? Plain sad if it is not.
Quoting 1008. GTstormChaserCaleb:
1960 had Donna, 1966 had Alma and Inez, 1968 Hurricane Gladys, 1973 Agnes, 1975 Eloise, 1979 David, 1985 Kate and Elena, 1987 Floyd, 1992 Andrew. Most is 6 years. So something has to give here eventually.


As for Agnes

"Though Agnes made landfall as a hurricane, no reports of hurricane force winds exists"

Most of the damage in Florida was a result of tornados spawned by the storm. Not necessarily unusual, but these were generally far removed from the landfalling location.
1027. will40
Quoting 1025. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


the 00Z run will be interesting indeed
Quoting 1027. will40:


the 00Z run will be interesting indeed
yes we have too see
Quoting 1021. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I guess what I was trying to say was FL. in general taking a direct hit by a hurricane, last one was Ernesto in 2006.


Yes, that I agree.
1030. FOREX
Quoting 1027. will40:


the 00Z run will be interesting indeed


I'm thinking 95L is done. Mexican landfall as a tropical depression in a 4 days. No crystal ball, just gut feelings.
The Weather Prediction Center says 95L will remain a separate entity from the front through day 7.

1032. will40
Quoting 1030. FOREX:


I'm thinking 95L is done. Mexican landfall as a tropical depression in a 4 days. No crystal ball, just gut feelings.


what GFS is showing is the cut off front going north
Quoting 1012. Tazmanian:
how would you like two walk up two this

Link


That would be more effective than my alarm clock is in the morning . . .
Quoting 1010. Astrometeor:


Beryl was a TS at landfall.


Not much difference between a 70 MPH TS and a low end Cat 1.
Quoting 1034. FunnelVortex:


Not much difference between a 70 MPH TS and a low end Cat 1.


True, some of us (me included) still believe that Beryl could've/should've been labeled as a Cat 1 at landfall.
Quoting 976. scott39:
When you get that high end Cat3 or low four with sustained winds of 110 mph 30 miles inland for 8 hours and 200 tornadoes with the sound of freight trains over your house.....Then you will know what living on the edge is all about my friend :) choo choo!


hahaha

I'd be gone before I'd voluntarily experience something like that.
1027. will40 2:14 AM GMT on September 19, 2013 +0




Quoting 1025. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



the 00Z run will be interesting indeed


95 appears to be a semi quasi stationary enity that feeds the tropical moisture ne ward towards sw tropical atlantic that will dev a feature off mid atlantic states with a reinforcing strong front as it rolls off advancing and absorbing whatever it is on the coast at the last few days of sept ring out may not be what we expect but interesting none the less

1038. FOREX
Quoting 1032. will40:


what GFS is showing is the cut off front going north


And not coming down to the gulf coast?
Quoting 1035. Astrometeor:


True, some of us (me included) still believe that Beryl could've/should've been labeled as a Cat 1 at landfall.


I believe it was briefly a hurricane at or near landfall.

1040. will40
Quoting 1038. FOREX:


And not coming down to the gulf coast?


yes it comes from the Gulf Coast. what it is showing is a dif part of 95L
1041. dolig


lets call the crystal ball GFOREX :)
1042. scott39
Quoting 1036. KoritheMan:


hahaha

I'd be gone before I'd voluntarily experience something like that.
Wise choice


M-D-G rain magnet doesn't take a break. And doesn't give a chance to "the others".
African Dust Storms in Our Air: Dust Storms in Africa Affect U.S. and the Caribbean's Air Quality



"Dust activity has been very intense this year and sea surface temperatures are unusually low," Prospero says. "These may have been contributing factors to the unusually weak hurricane season this year."


Link
Quoting 955. MiamiHurricanes09:
Usagi remains at 90kts/956mb.

WP, 17, 2013091900, , BEST, 0, 170N, 1281E, 90, 956, XX, 34, NEQ, 85, 85, 85, 85, 1003, 320, 20, 0, 0, W, 0, X, 260, 6, USAGI, D, , , , , , , TCGP EXTRA DATA, WP172013, JTWC, NCEP_TCVITALS,


I think Usagi is much stronger than that. It might even be approaching category 4 intensity, based on the extremely impressive microwave image.


1046. scott39
Tracking these complex TCs is becoming too much like work. Lol
1047. hydrus
Quoting 1026. daddyjames:


As for Agnes

"Though Agnes made landfall as a hurricane, no reports of hurricane force winds exists"

Most of the damage in Florida was a result of tornados spawned by the storm. Not necessarily unusual, but these were generally far removed from the landfalling location.
Agnes did a lot of damage on the west coast of Florida. It is unusual, but much of it went unreported.
Manuel wasn't content with its Round 1 performance, unfortunately. Eyewall just offshore. Question is, will it continue heading inland, or resume its NW motion and slowly churn its way up the coast?


Rough night ahead for areas near Guasave.

Quoting 1044. ColoradoBob1:
African Dust Storms in Our Air: Dust Storms in Africa Affect U.S. and the Caribbean's Air Quality



"Dust activity has been very intense this year and sea surface temperatures are unusually low," Prospero says. "These may have been contributing factors to the unusually weak hurricane season this year."


Link

Both of those statements are false. :\
Quoting 1036. KoritheMan:


hahaha

I'd be gone before I'd voluntarily experience something like that.


Hmm...That gives me an idea.
Quoting 1047. hydrus:
Agnes did a lot of damage on the west coast of Florida. It is unusual, but much of it went unreported.
Flooded grandmas house to the second floor in Wilkes Barre.
Starting to have some doubts that 95L becomes anything stronger than a mid-range tropical storm, if even that. There has to be a reason the models are showing an elongated system that gradually gets wrung out by the front.

If it organizes quickly enough that could change, but this is a very tricky situation.
yesterday it will all florida today florida is out .... and thats what always happens.... only time a front is involved is when it takes a storm away from florida
1054. FOREX
Quoting 1052. KoritheMan:
Starting to have some doubts that 95L becomes anything stronger than a mid-range tropical storm, if even that. There has to be a reason the models are showing an elongated system that gradually gets wrung out by the front.

If it organizes quickly enough that could change, but this is a very tricky situation.


Agree completely.
Quoting 1047. hydrus:
Agnes did a lot of damage on the west coast of Florida. It is unusual, but much of it went unreported.


Yes, it did.

It was retired/remembered was for the flooding in Virginia and Maryland where the majority of damage was caused. I am not sure it would have been retired based upon Florida alone.

Not saying it wasn't bad. Just not significant in its impact on Florida.

Quoting 1050. Astrometeor:


Hmm...That gives me an idea.


I bet it does.
Quoting 963. daddyjames:
BTW - sure looks as if Manuel is about to make landfall.

Manuel make landfall imo.
1058. hydrus
Quoting 1019. daddyjames:


David barely brushed the coast, Kate & Elena (1985), Floyd 1987 did very little damage.

I did say since the late 60's and "of any significance". Really, one of the reasons that Andrew is remembered was that it was an extremely harsh wake-up call!

Everyone, except for old-timers, had forgotten what a hurricane could do. It was a 20 year-long span that SoFl was significantly impacted by a landfalling hurricane.

I was there.
The only bad Florida hurricane I remember from the 1970,s was Eloise.
This weather satellite picture of Hurricane Eloise was taken on September 22, 1975 at 1700 UTC
img src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/common s/8/82/Hurricane_Eloise_in_Gulf_on_S2ptember_22.jp g">

Eloise came ashore along the coast of northern Florida as a Category 3 storm producing winds of 90 mph (140 km/h) with gusts that reached 155 mph (249 km/h).[1] Sustained winds were likely higher, but due to the sparsity of recording stations, few official records exist. The winds in the area were reportedly the strongest of the century.[5] Hurricane-force winds occurred from Fort Walton Beach through Panama City. Along the coast, tides ran 12 to 16 feet (3.7 to 4.9 m) above normal, peaking at 18 feet (5.5 m). Hurricane Eloise spawned several tornadoes as it pressed inland.[1] In general, rainfall ranged from 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm); at the Eglin Air Force Base near Valparaiso, however, the hurricane dropped 14.9 inches (380 mm) of precipitation.[10] The heaviest rainfall was usually confined to northwest of the storm's track, and a number of locations to the east of Eloise's center picked up less than 1 inch (25 mm) of rain.[1]

Damage from the hurricane was widespread. Fort Walton Beach, where hundreds of structures were damaged or destroyed, was hit particularly hard. In some areas, the storm surge washed away buildings demolished by the strong winds. The winds cleared certain locations of trees and buried properties and roads under sand. Throughout northwest Florida, an estimated 8,000 people suffered storm-related losses, and 500 businesses were completely destroyed. An article in the Tallahassee Democrat reported that "Cottages, motels, restaurants, convenience stores and other beach businesses were strewn across the highway in a tangle of down power poles, lines and busted mains."[5] A 2,100-acre (850 ha) shrimp farm at Panama City, the first of its kind, was effectively lost. The storm destroyed the farm's prospective initial harvest, 1,500,000 pounds (680,000 kg) of shrimp enclosed in a system of nets and enclosures. The president of the company described the subsequent events as six months of extreme turmoil in an effort to recover, followed by a quick and steady rebound. By the spring of 1976, the company became confident in financial success and full recovery.[11][15]
Aerial view of the Florida Panhandle damage


The storm caused severe beach erosion in Bay County; approximately 801,000 cubic yards (612,000 m3) of sand was removed.[16] Storm-related changes in the coastal topography resulted in extensive structural damage in the Panama City Beach area. The most severe damage was concentrated in a 22 miles (35 km) area of the shore east of the hurricane's eye, and storm surge peaked in intensity for no more than a half hour according to preliminary estimates. Much of the resultant damage came as a result of foundation undermining, which was compared to that of the New England hurricane of 1938. Although Eloise was not abnormally strong, the geographicy setting and building standards in the area were blamed for the destruction of many homes and businesses.[17] Monetary losses from property damage in Panama City Beach alone totaled about $50 million.[18]

The first major storm to strike the region in 40 years, Hurricane Eloise did not directly kill anyone in the state of Florida.[19] However, four deaths of an indirect nature were attributed to the hurricane;[1] two of them were related to heart attacks. Numerous people sustained injuries, largely from broken glass or cleanup efforts. Overall property damage from the storm in Florida amounted to $150 million.[11] In the storm's aftermath, a study of the hurricane's effect on aquatic animals living in the swash zone (the immediate area where land and the ocean meet) of Panama City Beach was conducted.[18] The study concluded that compared to 11 consecutive months of data prior to the storm, the swash zone experienced a brief influx of animal species normally found offshore. However, the number decreased to near normal shortly thereafter.[18] Also along the shore, the hurricane dismantled or severely impaired several piers, including the total destruction of a 300 feet (91 m) extension of the Okaloosa Island Pier built just three years earlier and part of its original span. A fishing pier at St. Andrews State Park also suffered vast damage, along with another wooden pier at Mexico Beach and the M.B. Miller Pier at Panama City Beach, which lost its end section to the storm.
I know its been sort of a slow start.. still at or above average, but not quite what I thought at the start of the season.

What are the chances the jet stream takes a dip and training systems west.carrib./ yucatan, or even the boc.. start to move north and east into the gulf states and/or Florida?
Quoting 1052. KoritheMan:
Starting to have some doubts that 95L becomes anything stronger than a mid-range tropical storm, if even that. There has to be a reason the models are showing an elongated system that gradually gets wrung out by the front.

If it organizes quickly enough that could change, but this is a very tricky situation.
timing timing timing

trust me florida wont get anything but mexico will
Quoting 1055. daddyjames:


Yes, it did.

It was retired/remembered was for the flooding in Virginia and Maryland where the majority of damage was caused. I am not sure it would have been retired based upon Florida alone.

Not saying it wasn't bad. Just not significant in its impact on Florida.

PA
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
9:00 AM JST September 19 2013
=====================================

Kamchatka Peninsula
At 0:00 AM UTC, Low, Former Man-yi (984 hPa) located at 60.0N 163.0E is reported as moving north northeast slowly

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression "23" (1000 hPa) located at 16.0N 105.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 15 knots.

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 14.0N 150.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.
Quoting 1052. KoritheMan:
Starting to have some doubts that 95L becomes anything stronger than a mid-range tropical storm, if even that. There has to be a reason the models are showing an elongated system that gradually gets wrung out by the front.

If it organizes quickly enough that could change, but this is a very tricky situation.
we going to get a new low on the cold front with rain in FL TO
I see a strong ts out of 95L aleast. That u should agree lol
95L looks like crap hahah
Quoting 1065. RGVtropicalWx13:
I see a strong ts out of 95L aleast. That u should agree lol


"At least" is pretty strong wording. Nothing about the pattern supports even a marginal hurricane, primarily because the models show a non-tropical low forming along the front over the southern United States this weekend. The flow on the back side of that low will try to ingest cooler and drier air into the circulation, along with the potential for some northwesterly shear.
Quoting 1062. Abacosurf:
PA


Oops - yes in PA. My bad.
Quoting 1067. KoritheMan:


"At least" is pretty strong wording. Nothing about the pattern supports even a marginal hurricane, primarily because the models show a non-tropical low forming along the front over the southern United States this weekend. The flow on the back side of that low will try to ingest cooler and drier air into the circulation, along with the potential for some northwesterly shear.
I just want a minimal ts of that.
The death toll is already at 80...now this:

@AP
BREAKING: Mexican official says at least 58 missing in landslide unleashed by storm.
1071. hydrus
Quoting 1051. Abacosurf:
Flooded grandmas house to the second floor in Wilkes Barre.
And flooding sux..I would much rather have wind damage any day than flooding.
Quoting 993. daddyjames:


Shh - you'll wake the hurricane gods back up. Actually from the late 1960's until the 1990's no hurricanes of any significance hit South Florida - so going this long is not necessarily odd.
We had a 25 year period here where the worst we saw was a low end cat 1.... David. Since about 97 we've been hit by something almost every year, and it's gotten to be a strange happening if we don't get at least one school disruption in September [which is cool 4 the kids, but not so much for the rest of us who still have to go to work].

Category 2 Jose was my favorite hurricane !!

It was moving very slowly...

It brought a prolonged period of heavy weather (4days)

Weather began to deteriorate well before the arrival of the core (24hours before...)

The arrival of the core has been VERY SPECTACULAR!!!! I will NEVER forget that BRIGHT ORANGE "ambiance" at sunset as the winds were approaching hurricane force with very heavy rains!

I will NEVER forget those crazy lightnings when the northern eyewall passed overhead! Jose is the ONLY hurricane with thunder and lightnings I experienced so far.

It brought Cat 2 hurricane force winds, with gusts to 120MPH

It brought 20 inches of rain!!

THAT'S WHAT A CALL AN INTERESTING STORM. More interesting the 2010 EARL...







Quoting 1071. hydrus:
And flooding sux..I would much rather have wind damage any day than flooding.


I actually agree completely.
Quoting 1070. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The death toll is already at 80...now this:

@AP
BREAKING: Mexican official says at least 58 missing in landslide unleashed by storm.


Yikes.
Just joking around I know whats going around. Just have to see how it plays out.
1077. hydrus
Once this thing percolates a while, it will regenerate farther north of the present center. .just me harmless opine.
Quoting 1077. hydrus:
Once this thing percolates a while, it will regenerate farther north of the present center. .just me harmless opine.


Using a wee bit of yer fanciful language there, eh?
Quoting 1069. allancalderini:
I just want a minimal ts of that.


To continue the chain of weaklings in the Jerry family?
I finished a blog about my adventures over the past few weekends so if you want to see the pictures I took of Western North Carolina, just click this link

l
l
l
l
\/

Bluestorm5's Blog
Quoting 136. Walshy:
Brad Panovich WCNC
The HWRF model has been very unreliable this season so far but it initialized pretty well today on #Invest95L over the Yucatan. It then develops it into a hurricane moving into the Northeast Gulf of Mexico. There is some supports from the other models as well. All interests in the Gulf should pay attention to the weather over the next few days and into the weekend. #Jerry

Great example of Wishcasting LOL are you kidding me the HWRF Model, I have a magic 8 ball that would do a better job of tropical predictions.
Quoting 1031. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Weather Prediction Center says 95L will remain a separate entity from the front through day 7.



That would be a very dangerous situation, right?
Quoting 1082. weatherrx:
Great example of Wishcasting LOL are you kidding me the HWRF Model, I have a magic 8 ball that would do a better job of tropical predictions.


My 3 year old sister would do better...
What a beast!
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
800 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2013

...MANUEL HUGGING THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 108.0W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF ALTATA MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
800 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2013

...MANUEL HUGGING THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 108.0W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF ALTATA MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
1066: the c word isn't allowed on this blog. Follow the rules!
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 PM AST WED SEP 18 2013

...HUMBERTO WEAKENING OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 43.4W
ABOUT 1000 MI...1605 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
HURRICANE MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
800 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2013

DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE
DATA SHOWED A RAGGED EYE. ON THAT BASIS...MANUEL WAS UPGRADED TO A
HURRICANE WITH 65-KNOT WINDS. SINCE THAT TIME...THERE HAS BEEN NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN...AND BECAUSE THE NORTHERN
EYEWALL AND A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION ARE ALREADY INTERACTING
WITH LAND...THE INTENSIFICATION OBSERVED EARLIER HAS ENDED.

MANUEL HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT ABOUT 3
KT. THIS SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH SMALL...HAS BROUGHT THE
CENTER CLOSE TO THE COAST...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. HOWEVER...MANUEL COULD EASILY
DEVIATE A LITTLE BIT TO THE LEFT..AND THE CENTER COULD REMAIN OVER
WATER A LITTLE LONGER. THIS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN THE RATE OF
WEAKENING.

TRACK GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AND MODELS ARE IN AS MUCH
DISAGREEMENT AS POSSIBLE. THIS OCCURS...IN GENERAL...WHEN THE
STEERING FLOW IS NOT WELL ESTABLISHED. THE NHC FORECAST WHICH...IN
FACT...IS ALSO HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...HAS OPTED FOR THE SLOW NORTHWARD
TRACK BRINGING A WEAKENING CYCLONE FATHER INLAND. THIS IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 24.6N 108.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 24.8N 108.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 20/0000Z 25.1N 108.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 20/1200Z 25.5N 108.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 21/0000Z 25.5N 108.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 22/0000Z 25.5N 108.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Humberto is now a depression, no significant strengthening expected.

11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 18
Location: 32.5N 43.4W
Moving: N at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 32.5N 43.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 33.7N 43.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 35.7N 41.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 38.6N 38.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 43.0N 34.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/0000Z...ABSORBED
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 PM AST WED SEP 18 2013

...HUMBERTO WEAKENING OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 43.4W
ABOUT 1000 MI...1605 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 PM AST WED SEP 18 2013

HUMBERTO IS LOSING ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE-IR IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME STRETCHED FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH LITTLE CONVECTION REMAINING. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
TAFB SATELLITE ESTIMATE. WHILE THE CYCLONE STILL HAS SOME TIME
OVER MARGINAL SSTS AND IN LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR...THE POOR INITIAL
STRUCTURE WILL LIKELY PREVENT HUMBERTO FROM SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM. AFTER 24H...THE SYSTEM SHOULD
ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST...AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW SOME
INCREASE IN STRENGTH DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. AFTER
ACCOUNTING FOR THE WEAKER INITIAL WINDS...THE LATEST NHC FORECAST
IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

SINCE THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME ELONGATED...THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 010/8. GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON HUMBERTO TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATING
AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A
LITTLE TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THE CYCLONE WILL DISSIPATE OR BE ABSORBED WITHIN A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 72H. THE NHC PREDICTION WILL GO ALONG WITH
THE ABSORBED SCENARIO...THOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF
HUMBERTO OPENED UP INTO A TROUGH BEFORE THAT TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 32.5N 43.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 33.7N 43.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 35.7N 41.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 38.6N 38.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 43.0N 34.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



all the players
Two reasons the Pacific has more cyclone activity than the Atlantic:1)Substantially more tepid water, particularly in the West Pacific 2)No SAL.
Quoting 1072. BahaHurican:
We had a 25 year period here where the worst we saw was a low end cat 1.... David. Since about 97 we've been hit by something almost every year, and it's gotten to be a strange happening if we don't get at least one school disruption in September [which is cool 4 the kids, but not so much for the rest of us who still have to go to work].



Yeah - that is what I was trying to say.

It was very quiet in our neck of the woods for a long time. Allowed SoFL to become what it is now - which maybe wasn't such a good thing.

When i was a kid, my folks used to "humor" me by putting up with my talk of "what could happen" and that we should get shutters (I must have been pretty annoying - still am ;)). Their house is 9 miles inland, and far enough from the coast to not worry.

After Andrew, that changed pretty quick. We were walking around thinking that "that wasn't so bad" - in Broward. Until the power came back, and we saw what happened down in South Dade. Dad, who worked for the Federal Gov at that time, was eventually mobilized to help down there. After seeing things - he decided shutters would be a very good thing.
Humberto dissappoint me even though I never thought he would regain hurricane strength many were skeptical of it and even thought he would become a cat 2 or 1 I was even in favor of it because we haven`t had anything stronger than a cat 1.That is why I say to not take models to seriously or they can dissappoint you.
If nothing becomes of 95L, or if it goes into Mexico instead of the US, I wonder how many weather modification proponents this will bring out?

"It looked like a significant threat to the US economy, so the government went ahead and stopped it."
Quoting 1090. Civicane49:
HURRICANE MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
800 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2013

DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE
DATA SHOWED A RAGGED EYE. ON THAT BASIS...MANUEL WAS UPGRADED TO A
HURRICANE WITH 65-KNOT WINDS. SINCE THAT TIME...THERE HAS BEEN NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN...AND BECAUSE THE NORTHERN
EYEWALL AND A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION ARE ALREADY INTERACTING
WITH LAND...THE INTENSIFICATION OBSERVED EARLIER HAS ENDED.

MANUEL HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT ABOUT 3
KT. THIS SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH SMALL...HAS BROUGHT THE
CENTER CLOSE TO THE COAST...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. HOWEVER...MANUEL COULD EASILY
DEVIATE A LITTLE BIT TO THE LEFT..AND THE CENTER COULD REMAIN OVER
WATER A LITTLE LONGER. THIS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN THE RATE OF
WEAKENING.

TRACK GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AND MODELS ARE IN AS MUCH
DISAGREEMENT AS POSSIBLE. THIS OCCURS...IN GENERAL...WHEN THE
STEERING FLOW IS NOT WELL ESTABLISHED. THE NHC FORECAST WHICH...IN
FACT...IS ALSO HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...HAS OPTED FOR THE SLOW NORTHWARD
TRACK BRINGING A WEAKENING CYCLONE FATHER INLAND. THIS IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 24.6N 108.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 24.8N 108.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 20/0000Z 25.1N 108.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 20/1200Z 25.5N 108.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 21/0000Z 25.5N 108.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 22/0000Z 25.5N 108.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


Guess he has not officially made landfall yet.
Sinking and dry air in the midlevels is greater than I thought.....95L is stuggling
Quoting 1079. KoritheMan:


To continue the chain of weaklings in the Jerry family?
Hahaha yes.:D I don`t want that curse broken.
Quoting 1096. daddyjames:


Yeah - that is what I was trying to say.

It was very quiet in our neck of the woods for a long time. Allowed SoFL to become what it is now - which maybe wasn't such a good thing.

When i was a kid, my folks used to "humor" me by putting up with my talk of "what could happen" and that we should get shutters (I must have been pretty annoying).

After Andrew, that changed pretty quick. We were walking around thinking that "that wasn't so bad" - in Broward. Until the power came back, and we saw what happened down in South Dade. Dad, who worked for the Federal Gov at that time, was eventually mobilized to help down there. After seeing things - he decided shutters would be a very good thing.
Yeah. Similar reaction here in Nassau. Ppple were like "Andrew was a breeze"... until they saw the impacts in Eleuthera. And as bad as Andrew was - we got low-end cat 2 winds at my location - New Providence was spared because of Andrew's small size and the fact that the eye passed sufficiently to our north.

We still haven't gotten one as bad as the 1929 storm for Nassau...
Quoting 1084. KoritheMan:


My 3 year old sister would do better...


I bet your 3 year old sister could do better than you.

:)
Biological Hazard in FL on Wednesday, 18 September, 2013 at 03:13 (03:13 AM) UTC.
Description
St. Lucie County joined Martin County Tuesday in asking Gov. Rick Scott to declare a state of emergency with regards to the Indian River Lagoon. But the governor did not commit to that, saying the federal government needs to step up. Mike Connor holds a plastic water bottle with a green liquid inside. "We've all become armchair biologists lately. This is a toxic algae," said Connor. When Connor looks at the plastic bottle, he sees a lost summer. Revenues from his small charter boat, are down 90 percent. "When the toxic river signs went up, all bets were off. I can't in good conscience take people out on the river," said Connor. His last charter was the first week in June. "Everything's been documented, the effects, the causes. What we don't know as business owners, what is being done on our end," he added. Tuesday, the St. Lucie County Commission followed its peers in Martin County and approved a resolution to ask the governor to declare a state of emergency for the Indian River lagoon. "It's important that we move and have the ability to make a difference when it comes to the Indian River Lagoon," said St. Lucie County Commissioner Chris Dzadovsky. Scott was in Stuart on Tuesday and said that last week he asked water control and environmental agencies to speed up any necessary permitting processes. When we asked the governor if there will there be help for business owners like Conner, the governor turned the attention to the federal government. "What's so frustrating is that the federal government has sat on their hands. They're $1.6 billion behind in funding these projects which could have prevented this from ever happening," said Scott. Connor has consulted with an attorney and plans to file some type of legal papers this week to see if there's anyway he can get some sort of reimbursement for his losses this summer.
Quoting 1101. allancalderini:
Hahaha yes.:D I don`t want that curse broken.

I have a family member named Jerry, so it would be nice if it was a weak storm so I would call him a weakling :p
1106. sar2401
Quoting KoritheMan:
Starting to have some doubts that 95L becomes anything stronger than a mid-range tropical storm, if even that. There has to be a reason the models are showing an elongated system that gradually gets wrung out by the front.

If it organizes quickly enough that could change, but this is a very tricky situation.

It appears the front will move a lot faster than 95L. Assuming the front does as forecast. it will be bringing with it about 2.3" of PW on Sunday. The air in front of the front, over the Gulf, will be quite dry by comparison. If the front can being enough PW and instability to the Gulf as the same time 95L is starting to get any easterly movement in the Gulf, that sub-tropical front could be a prodigious rainmaker for the SE. If 95L dawdles around like the previous BOC storms, the front will wash out before 95L gains enough latitude to inject any instability and moist air to the west end of the front, and 95L will keel over and head into Mexico....again.
Quoting 1103. Astrometeor:


I bet your 3 year old sister could do better than you.

:)


At least I provide forecasts. You don't. Why is that, Nathan? Scared you'll embarrass yourself?

What I thought.

gg no re
Quoting 1102. BahaHurican:
Yeah. Similar reaction here in Nassau. Ppple were like "Andrew was a breeze"... until they saw the impacts in Eleuthera. And as bad as Andrew was - we got low-end cat 2 winds at my location - New Providence was spared because of Andrew's small size and the fact that the eye passed sufficiently to our north.

We still haven't gotten one as bad as the 1929 storm for Nassau...


What was funny was I had a coworker - younger than me - from Iowa, Who had no place to go, so i invited him to my folks place. They were out of town, and i was house sitting for them.

He left the week afterwards saying that "In Iowa, you wait 15 mins. and you know exactly where the tornado is going."

I never really understood what he meant, until moving here to OK. Now I do.
105 mph.

I call BS.

Quoting 1107. KoritheMan:


At least I provide forecasts. You don't. Why is that, Nathan? Scared you'll embarrass yourself?

What I thought.

gg no re


No, I don't particularly like hurricanes. Didn't start watching them until last year when I joined the blog. Katrina was a pathetic little thing when it passed over me, and so I didn't really take to hurricanes as well as I took to severe storms (which are obviously more common in TN than 'canes).
1111. hydrus
Quoting 1078. KoritheMan:


Using a wee bit of yer fanciful language there, eh?
Good evening Kori.
That greater than u thought is just temporary lol
105 mph.

I call BS.



looks like PAGASA is going with...

967 hPa 39 m/s 75 knots

could be worst estimate of intensity
Quoting 1110. Astrometeor:


No, I don't particularly like hurricanes. Didn't start watching them until last year when I joined the blog. Katrina was a pathetic little thing when it passed over me, and so I didn't really take to hurricanes as well as I took to severe storms (which are obviously more common in TN than 'canes).


I see.

It's probably a geographical thing. I prefer hurricanes to severe weather, but it's probably because there's a hurricane here more than there is a tornado.

Strongly considering gearing my forecasts toward severe weather after the culmination of what we're calling a "season" here. I've been meaning to.
Quoting 1111. hydrus:
Good evening Kori.


Hydrus!
Quoting 1083. ChemPhysMath:


That would be a very dangerous situation, right?

Probably not. Even if the low itself isn't absorbed into the frontal boundary, it will experience wind shear and dry air in advance of, and following the passage of, the front. Its moisture will likely be robbed as well.
Quoting 1058. hydrus:
The only bad Florida hurricane I remember from the 1970,s was Eloise.
This weather satellite picture of Hurricane Eloise was taken on September 22, 1975 at 1700 UTC
img src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/common s/8/82/Hurricane_Eloise_in_Gulf_on_S2ptember_22.jp g">

Eloise came ashore along the coast of northern Florida as a Category 3 storm producing winds of 90 mph (140 km/h) with gusts that reached 155 mph (249 km/h).[1] Sustained winds were likely higher, but due to the sparsity of recording stations, few official records exist. The winds in the area were reportedly the strongest of the century.[5] Hurricane-force winds occurred from Fort Walton Beach through Panama City. Along the coast, tides ran 12 to 16 feet (3.7 to 4.9 m) above normal, pe...tp:>

People forget about Eloise. I had never heard about it until looking at hurricane history info
Quoting 1116. wxgeek723:
Jersey Shore boardwalk fire linked to wiring damage from Hurricane Sandy


I thought about that when I first heard about it but then I brushed it off. I guess I was right
Quoting 1119. opal92nwf:

People forget about Eloise. I had never heard about it until looking at hurricane history info
Hurricane Frederick 1979
Quoting 1119. opal92nwf:

People forget about Eloise. I had never heard about it until looking at hurricane history info


But that was a year of recurves, right?

Right?!

R...ight?

:|

Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #9
TYPHOON ODETTE
11:00 AM PhST September 19 2013
=================================================

"ODETTE" continues to move towards northern Luzon

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Odette [USAGI] (967 hPa) located at 17.1N 128.2E or 610 km east of Tuguegarao City has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gustiness up to 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #2

Luzon Region
--------------
1. Cagayan
2. Calayan
3. Babuyan Group of Islands

Signal Warning #1

Luzon Region
-------------
1. Apayao
2. Ilocos Norte
3. Abra
4. Kalinga
5. Isabela
6. Batanes Group of Islands

Additional Information
========================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 15-20 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 600 km diameter of the typhoon.

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under signal #2 & #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under signal #2 are alerted against storm surges.

"ODETTE" will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon that will bring moderate to occasionally heavy rains and thunderstorms over MIMAROPA, western Visayas,Zambales and Bataan. Residents in these areas are advised to be alert against flash floods and landslides.

Sea travel is risky over the seaboards of Occidental Mindoro and Palawan and over the eastern seaboard of central and southern Luzon and of Visayas.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
Quoting 1121. PensacolaNative:
Hurricane Frederick 1979


Technically that hit Alabama . . . ;)
I'm telling you guys if we reach November 29 without a significant the storm the blog will still be like "SEASON STILL NOT OVER ONE DAY LEFT THERE'S STILL HOPE FOR A STORM LOOK AT THE DECEMBER 1925 FLORIDA HURRICANE NO THIS SEASON CAN'T END LIKE THIS DOES NOT COMPUTE DOES NOT COMPUTE"
Quoting 1124. daddyjames:


Technically hat hit Alabama . . . ;)
True, we were on the bad side though
Quoting 1118. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Probably not. Even if the low itself isn't absorbed into the frontal boundary, it will experience wind shear and dry air in advance of, and following the passage of, the front. Its moisture will likely be robbed as well.

Although at least in the short term, dry air really isn't overwhelming. I've seen developing tropical waves amidst dryer air. I think the best thing this system could do for the long term is become strong (like a trop storm) sooner which will both help it feel the influence of the trough and keep it from becoming torn apart or stretched out when the trough comes.
18z FIM-9 now that track would be something else.

Usagi is looking pretty well formed. The track forecast takes it between the islands and to the southern China coast.



44 mph wind gust in East End , now we getting hammered here in South Sound.
Quoting 1126. PensacolaNative:
True, we were on the bad side though


True.

In that area FL, AL, MI should be counted as one - as impact generally affects all three.
Quoting 1131. daddyjames:


True.

In that area FL, AL, MI should be counted as one - as impact generally affects all three.


Michigan gets hurricanes?
What? Tropical Depression HUMBERTO, he'll come back!
Quoting 1094. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



all the players

Quoting 1132. KoritheMan:


Michigan gets hurricanes?


Duh

Quoting 1133. Funication:
What? Tropical Depression HUMBERTO, he'll come back!



I see you decided to abolish your disturbing, nightmare-inducing avatar in favor of a more peaceable one. :P
1136. vis0
Quoting 114. redwagon:


There are quite a few of us coders in here, Centex, sar2401... do you have a blog?

I'm not one of those coders ...not as to physics.
Forgive me if these ideas have been posted just got in & am at 56K.

Don't think conventional sub.

How
about round on top (like the mini subs) to receive the least drag when
being used as a water drone. It'll be going against constant strong
winds.

A weight reversed longer pointy bottom/~undercarriage so the
weight of an upside down pyramid shape keeps the ball on top, no roll
over.

Hidden
curved rims can be deployed (raised from within ) though just
centimeters in height use them to deflect wind and micro-steer the
"PROTI". & save internal battery from being over used.

Already
named it PROTI? You'll think of something better but one needs a name to
start so one can focus ones questions instead of having to think of a
name as you go along in your discussions. In a few minutes i'm sure a
better name will pop up amongst the experts that will take this idea.

Proti from Proteus to Protius To PROTI, acronym for "Probe Receiving Operational Tropical Information" (Under Sea).

i first used this name in a weather board for The Weather Channel (1998/99) were i left 2 drawings.
 
The main drawing was for a device that can go into tornadoes &
survive by using curves in its design forcing the probe to go downwards
when the Tornado becomes stronger and in F4 & F5s the probe is
forced to (excuse the language) screw itself into the ground thus not
being flung around and destroying its valuable information it collected
that could not be sent due to the interfering with signals from being in winds of
over 180 mph.

The
2nd drawing was of a probe dropped on the
ocean to get readouts & create visible imagery at night instead of
relying on infrared which use damaging microwaves. Proti would use a
type of laser
that could beam up through the clouds and read by Satellites and
create visible images. The latter i called Proti but didn't explain it
any further as i asked if interested as to either idea just reply. No
one replies to my
ideas except to criticize the grammar which is okay as that's how i
separate those whom really care (they take the time to read the book)
from those that are in it for greed or for other negative reasons (they
just read the cover).

BTW
can't use my WxU mail am blocked from
doing 'cause an offer to download a weather app keeps popping up
when i try to use my WxU mail & no one has responded to my request
ticket so i'm  looking for another blog that fits my needs, so far
found one in China, but prefer a more human friendly country as to my
blogging.

If
one wishes try reading my other ideas/theories before they close (3
just closed this year) UNDERSTAND i post all sorts of theories &
ideas from a device i state can be used to influence nature as to
reverse diseases & influence weather to ideas i leave for women to
attract attention w/o showing too much skin while working in the field
of TV broadcasts (fashion ideas are what has given me the most money as
have shared 14 ideas with designers (Friends of my Sis, she went to The
School Of Art & Design, NYC), 8 of those ideas worked, 3 flopped
other 3 still being tinkered with, they think i'm a fashion genius as my styles place REAL TIME control in changing a "look" while still wearing the same outfit. Oh yeah i forgot its a site dedicated to trolling & close minded arguing ...i mean weather)
At *********** i'm AKAMRX
At ******** (a great photography site) i'm Senor Equis
At WxU (here) i'm vis0


Hope
it helps, would add more (as make sure its fog proof, add a short signal that imitates dolphin brain activity/sonar to prevent sharks from eating it)
but i figure by others i've written to here at WxU and other science
related media sites if i write more than a few paragraphs you'll need
Dramamine from going back n forth trying to make sense, though i
thought that's a low price to pay for tomorrows science/ideas i guess
most want new ideas to fit old technology so their brains can handle
it. With the latter way of thinking we'd have used an Edsel to launch
ourselves to the moon....3,2,1! CRANK IT! (add sound of Edsel back firing
here)

Sincerely
vis0 at wunderground
Gregorio OM  in Real life
,peace
lol, It's the second Louisiana grown pineapple
Quoting 1135. KoritheMan:


I see you decided to abolish your disturbing, nightmare-inducing avatar in favor of a more peaceable one. :P

Quoting 1011. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Beryl was a 70 mph. tropical storm at peak intensity that hit near Jacksonville, FL. in 2012.


I drove right into that one. Stayed at Ponta Vedra Beach for 3 hours in 25-45 mph winds waiting for the worst to hit. It finally got dark and my better half told me it was time to go. So we start driving north along the main beach road toward Jax Beach, then the worst hit. It was pretty squally and the official Jax Beach observation of 46 mph sustained seems about like what I experienced. By the time we found a hotel room in Jax Beach, it was about 10 pm, and the winds were like 25-30 mph gusting 35 -40 mph. The eye lasted an hour or two but as soon as the center moved ashore the circulation started to disintegrate. By the time the "back half" "hit" all that was left was showers and winds 15-25 mph gusting to 30 mph, maybe 35 mph at the highest. That was the best I had seen since my experience with Fay at Melbourne Beach in 2008.
Humberto's regeneration has been somewhat of a disappointment.

Quoting 1135. KoritheMan:


I see you decided to abolish your disturbing, nightmare-inducing avatar in favor of a more peaceable one. :P


Got tired of people asking what it was. Of course, this one has me wondering also.
TWC also agrees on splitting into 2 lows and one hitting florida as NON TROPICAL

HAHA BUST SEASON CONTINUES HELLO!!!

Quoting 1140. daddyjames:


Got tired of people asking what it was. Of course, this one has me wondering also.
it was the bottom of a turtle
Quoting 1125. wxgeek723:
I'm telling you guys if we reach November 29 without a significant the storm the blog will still be like "SEASON STILL NOT OVER ONE DAY LEFT THERE'S STILL HOPE FOR A STORM LOOK AT THE DECEMBER 1925 FLORIDA HURRICANE NO THIS SEASON CAN'T END LIKE THIS DOES NOT COMPUTE DOES NOT COMPUTE"

This is one of the funniest things I've heard from you.

Quoting 1127. opal92nwf:

Although at least in the short term, dry air really isn't overwhelming. I've seen developing tropical waves amidst dryer air. I think the best thing this system could do for the long term is become strong (like a trop storm) sooner which will both help it feel the influence of the trough and keep it from becoming torn apart or stretched out when the trough comes.

True. We'll just have to wait and see. The environment doesn't look terrible for the next 2-3 days. Should at least get a moderate tropical storm out of this.
Quoting 1139. wxgeek723:
Humberto's regeneration has been somewhat of a disappointment.



Dude's got a bit of stage fright, doesn't he?
Remembering those good old days lol

...JOSE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH 100 MPH
WINDS...

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE GEORGES POUNDING NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LENNY STALLS AGAIN NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY LASHING THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN...

...LENNY WREAKING HAVOC ON ST. MAARTEN AND ADJACENT ISLANDS...

...EYE OF LENNY OVER ST. BARTHS IN THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...

...DEBBY NEARING NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THREATENS TO STRENGTHEN...

...OMAR GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

...OMAR BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE VIRGIN AND
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

...OMAR CROSSING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH 120 MPH WINDS...

...EARL STRENGTHENS AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD
ISLANDS...

...EARL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...

...IRENE LASHING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH SQUALLS AND
HEAVY RAINS...

...CENTER OF RAFAEL MOVES NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAINS STILL AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


... Still hoping for some action in october and november of this year... LOL WHO KNOWS................ XD
95L has such a huge circulation that it'll take some time to get consolidated. That and the sheer screaming just to its north gives it no room to maneuver.

Quoting 1145. CaribBoy:
Remembering those good old days lol

...JOSE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH 100 MPH
WINDS...

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE GEORGES POUNDING NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LENNY STALLS AGAIN NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY LASHING THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN...

...LENNY WREAKING HAVOC ON ST. MAARTEN AND ADJACENT ISLANDS...

...EYE OF LENNY OVER ST. BARTHS IN THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...

...DEBBY NEARING NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THREATENS TO STRENGTHEN...

...OMAR GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

...OMAR BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE VIRGIN AND
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

...OMAR CROSSING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH 120 MPH WINDS...

...EARL STRENGTHENS AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD
ISLANDS...

...EARL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...

...IRENE LASHING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH SQUALLS AND
HEAVY RAINS...

...CENTER OF RAFAEL MOVES NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAINS STILL AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


... Still hoping for some action in october and november of this year... LOL WHO KNOWS................ XD


I truly think your enthusiasm is even greater than mine. Kudos.
Quoting KoritheMan:


But that was a year of recurves, right?

Right?!

R...ight?

:|

Eloise was a killer in Puerto Rico, one of the greatest catastrophes in our history....Personally touch since I lost my best friend.... very sad, indeed....
Quoting 1142. Funication:

it was the bottom of a turtle


Really? Pretty cool. Like the pineapple! But I liked the pig too.
Quoting 1147. KoritheMan:


I truly think your enthusiasm is even greater than mine. Kudos.


XD lol I love weather so much!! But 2013... well...
19/0232 UTC 17.3N 128.3E T6.0/6.0 USAGI -- West Pacific
Once the eye completely clears out, Usagi should become a super typhoon, probably bordering on category 5 intensity. Definitely another Western Pacific badass.
Quoting 1143. TropicalAnalystwx13:

This is one of the funniest things I've heard from you.


True. We'll just have to wait and see. The environment doesn't look terrible for the next 2-3 days. Should at least get a moderate tropical storm out of this.


Oh really? Just because I don't reciprocate your juvenile humor that I already see in school every day? :p
Quoting 1150. daddyjames:


Really? Pretty cool. Like the pineapple! But I liked the pig too.
opps

Quoting 1155. Funication:


what happened there?
1157. vis0
Quoting 114. redwagon:


There are quite a few of us coders in here, Centex, sar2401... do you have a blog?

I'm not one of those coders ...not as to physics.
Since i can't use WxU mail here is something i would prefer send to "thinker" here at WxU. Its better that someone steal it and develop it than lay dormant as a text file.

Don't think conventional sub.

How
about round on top (like the mini subs) to receive the least drag when
being used as a water drone. It'll be going against constant strong
winds.

A weight reversed pointy bottom/~undercarriage so the
weight of an upside down pyramid shape keeps the ball on top, no roll
over.

Hidden curved rims can be deployed (raised from within ) to deflect wind and used the wind to micro-steer the "PROTI"

Already
named it? You'll think of something better but one needs a name to
start so one can focus ones questions instead of having to think of a
name as you go along in your discussions. In a few minutes i'm sure a
better name will pop up amongst the experts that will take this idea.

Proti from Proteus to Protius To PROTI, acronym for "Probe Receiving Operational Tropical Information" (Under Sea).

i first used this name in a weather board for The Weather Channel (1998/99) were i left 2 drawings.
 
The main drawing was for a device that can go into tornadoes &
survive by using curves in its design forcing the probe to go downwards
when the Tornado becomes stronger and in F4 & F5s the probe is
forced to (excuse the language) screw itself into the ground thus not
being flung around and destroying its valuable information it collected
that could not be sent due to the interfering with signals from being in winds of
over 180 mph.

The
2nd drawing was of a probe dropped on the
ocean to get readouts & create visible imagery at night instead of
relying on infrared which use damaging microwaves. Proti would use a
type of laser
that could beam up through the clouds and read by Satellites and
create visible images. The latter i called Proti but didn't explain it
any further as i asked if interested as to either idea just reply. No
one replies to my
ideas except to criticize the grammar which is okay as that's how i
separate those whom really care (they take the time to read the book)
from those that are in it for greed or for other negative reasons (they
just read the cover).

BTW
can't use my WxU mail am blocked from
doing 'cause an offer to download a weather app keeps popping up
when i try to use my WxU mail & no one has responded to m y request
ticket so i'm  looking for another blog that fits my needs, so far
found one in China, but prefer a more human friendly country as to my
blogging.

If
one wishes try reading my other ideas/theories before they close (3
just closed this year) UNDERSTAND i post all sorts of theories &
ideas from a device i state can be used to influence nature as to
reverse diseases & influence weather to ideas i leave for women to
attract attention w/o showing too much skin while working in the field
of TV broadcasts (fashion ideas are what has given me the most money as
have shared 14 ideas with designers (Friends of my Sis, she went to The
School Of Art & Design, NYC), 8 of those ideas worked, 3 flopped
other 3 still being tinkered with, they think i'm a fashion genius)
At *********** i'm AKAMRX
At ******** (a great photography site) i'm Senor Equis
At WxU (here) i'm vis0


Hope
it helps, would add more (as make sure its fog proof, a short that
imitates dolphin brain activity/sonar to prevent sharks from eating it)
but i figure by others i've written to here at WxU and other science
related media sites if i write more than a few paragraphs you'll need
Dramamine from going back n forth trying to make sense, though i
thought that's a low price to pay for tomorrows science/ideas i guess
most want new ideas to fit old technology so their brains can handle
it. With the latter way of thinking we'd have used an Edsel to launch
ourselves to the moon....3,2,1! CRANK IT! (add sound of Edsel back firing
here)

Sincerely
vis0 at wunderground
Gregorio OM  in Real life
,peace
Quoting 1154. wxgeek723:


Oh really? Just because I don't reciprocate your juvenile humor that I already see in school every day? :p


I should pull out a little old middle-school style speaking here.

ooooo, Cody got Burned!.


Maybe that was a bad idea...
Quoting CaribBoy:
Remembering those good old days lol

...JOSE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH 100 MPH
WINDS...

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE GEORGES POUNDING NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LENNY STALLS AGAIN NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LENNY LASHING THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN...

...LENNY WREAKING HAVOC ON ST. MAARTEN AND ADJACENT ISLANDS...

...EYE OF LENNY OVER ST. BARTHS IN THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...

...DEBBY NEARING NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THREATENS TO STRENGTHEN...

...OMAR GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

...OMAR BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE VIRGIN AND
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

...OMAR CROSSING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH 120 MPH WINDS...

...EARL STRENGTHENS AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD
ISLANDS...

...EARL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...

...IRENE LASHING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH SQUALLS AND
HEAVY RAINS...

...CENTER OF RAFAEL MOVES NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAINS STILL AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


... Still hoping for some action in october and november of this year... LOL WHO KNOWS................ XD

oh.... go to bed
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
and dream of a cat 5
Quoting 1157. vis0:

vis0 at wunderground
Gregorio OM  in Real life
,peace


Hey Gregorio, how's it going?
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #26
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON USAGI (T1319)
12:00 PM JST September 19 2013
======================================

Sea East Of The Philippines

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Usagi (955 hPa) located at 17.1N 128.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Storm Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
240 NM from the center

Dvorak intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 19.0N 125.3E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
45 HRS: 20.5N 122.7E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) South Of Okinawa
69 HRS: 21.7N 119.3E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Northern South China Sea

no change from JMA except the direction of the storm to the west.

China Meteorological Administration has upgraded the storm's intensity

** WTPQ20 BABJ 190300 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STY USAGI 1319 (1319) INITIAL TIME 190300 UTC
00HR 17.1N 128.2E 955HPA 42M/S
30KTS 380KM
50KTS 120KM
P12HR WNW 15KM/H
P+24HR 18.8N 124.8E 935HPA 52M/S
P+48HR 20.5N 121.3E 935HPA 52M/S
P+72HR 21.6N 117.4E 950HPA 45M/S
Looks like the latest GFS sends 95L poofing into Mexico.
This year it's not the Atlantic Hurricane season. It's the Atlantic Hurry Can't season.

Quoting 1163. unknowncomic:
Looks like the latest GFS sends 95L poofing into Mexico.
This year it's not the Atlantic Hurricane season. It's the Atlantic Hurry Can't season.


And another one bites the dust.... (probably)
nope, nope and nope! if this stays this weak it's just going to go into Mexico. Nothing new there, BORING!!!

2014 HAS to be more interesting, otherwise.......well we'll see
1166. Dakster
Models seem to be aimed at Florida for 95L or at least the CMC and UKMET are.

Could this one need to be watched by us Floridians?
Lol, based on statistics, we are supposed to get another storm pretty soon XD

Normally, tropical systems LIKE the Northern Leewards!!

But not in 2013 (so far).
For all you younger guys, check out this link. Please don't fall into this trap.

Putting a face on the student debt crisis

Out With Student Debt

I worked may way through college. Don't see how you younger guys could do that these days.
Quoting 1165. opal92nwf:
nope, nope and nope! if this stays this weak it's just going to go into Mexico. Nothing new there, BORING!!!

2014 HAS to be more interesting, otherwise.......well we'll see


Lol, looks like me getting grumpy with the 2013 Bay of Campeche Hurricane Season!! :-)
Quoting 1166. Dakster:
Models seem to be aimed at Florida for 95L or at least the CMC and UKMET are.

Could this one need to be watched by us Floridians?


Not for a while, if at all.
1171. Dakster
Daddyjames - College tuition is the next s* storm waiting to happen. I have pre-paid college tuition for my kids for that reason. (debt)

Light Rain, 79F.


Little blob wants to go north
Quoting 1109. TropicalAnalystwx13:
105 mph.

I call BS.

Don't forget that's 10-min sustained at 105 mph...

That's more like 120 - 125 mph to us. IIRC
Quoting 1166. Dakster:
Models seem to be aimed at Florida for 95L or at least the CMC and UKMET are.

Could this one need to be watched by us Floridians?
October will be the month we need to watch to the south of us as that is typically the month where FL. gets hit on the West Coast as troughs get more deeper and draw whatever forms to the northeast.
Don't forget that's 10-min sustained at 105 mph...

That's more like 120 - 125 mph to us. IIRC


that is actually JTWC 90 knots (105 mph) reading.
Quoting 1171. Dakster:
Daddyjames - College tuition is the next s* storm waiting to happen. I have pre-paid college tuition for my kids for that reason. (debt)

Light Rain, 79F.


Its not just tuition, its fees. Make sure the pre-paid covers that too. The associated fees, not included in tuition calculations are astronomical.
1178. EricSFL


Circulation seems to be off to the northwest of the convection.
Wow!! A lot of folks still making fools of them selves with 95L and especially the season. Geez no patience at all. Especially opal lol. You Forgot that there's October and November to a hurricane season. Btw it's spelled hurricane not hurr it can't!! Wow!!! Show some respect and patience.
Quoting 1179. RGVtropicalWx13:
Wow!! A lot of folks still making fools of them selves with 95L and especially the season. Geez no patience at all. Especially opal lol. You Forgot that there's October and November to a hurricane season. Btw it's spelled hurricane not hurr it can't!! Wow!!! Show some respect and patience.
lol its mid september, people said that in the beginning of august. and we only have 1 hurricane to show for it. youll say that again this time october,
Quoting 1168. daddyjames:
For all you younger guys, check out this link. Please don't fall into this trap.

Putting a face on the student debt crisis

Out With Student Debt

I worked may way through college. Don't see how you younger guys could do that these days.


I am really angry and disappointed with the older generation. Their thinking of short term gain over long term got us younger generation in a tough spot to fix. Not just debt crisis, but everything.
Quoting 1180. SuperStorm093:
lol its mid september, people said that in the beginning of august. and we only have 1 hurricane to show for it. youll say that again this time october,
Thank goodness you're here Superstorm!
Quoting 1180. SuperStorm093:
lol its mid september, people said that in the beginning of august. and we only have 1 hurricane to show for it. youll say that again this time october,

Lol when we will 3-4 hurricanes then. Say that then.
1184. EricSFL
Good Evening Night Class! And Good Evening to some students that I have not seen for some time.

Things will be getting interesting..........No?
Quoting 1171. Dakster:
Daddyjames - College tuition is the next s* storm waiting to happen. I have pre-paid college tuition for my kids for that reason. (debt)

Light Rain, 79F.


Tuition here (in state): $147.50/hr. Fees: $100.55/hr

On top of that there is college based fees ($7.50-$22.00/hr), the "special" fees - parking, etc., the application fee, and the "new student/orientation fee - which they require all students to "take". Its freaking ridiculous.

Although they brag that tuition is one of the lowest, the fees kill you.
Quoting 1185. HurricaneHunterJoe:
Good Evening Night Class! And Good Evening to some students that I have not seen for some time.

Things will be getting interesting..........No?


No.
Quoting 1185. HurricaneHunterJoe:
Good Evening Night Class! And Good Evening to some students that I have not seen for some time.

Things will be getting interesting..........No?
Ask Superstorm, he knows everything
Quoting 1181. Bluestorm5:


I am really angry and disappointed with the older generation. Their thinking of short term gain over long term got us younger generation in a tough spot to fix. Not just debt crisis, but everything.


I agree - its freaking ridiculous. I don;t see how this is not going to undermine our society on a whole. There is no way that you can go to college, work, and pay for everything.
Quoting 1140. daddyjames:


Got tired of people asking what it was. Of course, this one has me wondering also.
C'mon... it's obviously a pineapple.... [obviously to any self-respecting Bahamian... lol]

Quoting 1187. daddyjames:


No.


Really?
1192. Dakster
Quoting 1186. daddyjames:


Tuition here (in state): $147.50/hr. Fees: $100.55/hr

On top of that there is college based fees ($7.50-$22.00/hr), the "special" fees - parking, etc., the application fee, and the "new student/orientation fee - which they require all students to "take". Its freaking ridiculous.

Although they brag that tuition is one of the lowest, the fees kill you.


Yep. ridiculous...
Quoting 1181. Bluestorm5:


I am really angry and disappointed with the older generation. Their thinking of short term gain over long term got us younger generation in a tough spot to fix. Not just debt crisis, but everything.
Agreed. I'd like to make a really egregious political comment here.

But instead I think I'll go to bed. Ban myself instead of being banned...

G'nite 2 all...
Well one thing has been consistent with the GFS and that is it is showing a lot of rain for FL. and the rains continuing in Mexico.

Quoting 1191. HurricaneHunterJoe:


Really?


Really. 95L may do something, but looks as if it'll remain in the BOC for a bit.

Manuel will pump moisture up into Texas/OK - that is a good thing.

Humberto is dying.

Everything going into Florida for the next week is non-tropical.

The next week looks slow . . . so, more time to discuss GW ;)
Quoting 1189. daddyjames:


I agree - its freaking ridiculous. I don;t see how this is not going to undermine our society on a whole. There is no way that you can go to college, work, and pay for everything.


Kinda hard competing financially with 3rd world economies?....And keep our accustomed standard of living?.....No?
1197. will40
Quoting 1194. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Well one thing has been consistent with the GFS and that is it is showing a lot of rain for FL. and the rains continuing in Mexico.



yes the GFS is showing the split of 95L
1198. jpsb
Quoting 1181. Bluestorm5:


I am really angry and disappointed with the older generation. Their thinking of short term gain over long term got us younger generation in a tough spot to fix. Not just debt crisis, but everything.


If you are talking about the older older generation the ones that gave us income taxes, the federal reserve, direct election of Senators and lots of other bad progressive ideas then I totally agree with you.
Quoting 1190. BahaHurican:
C'mon... it's obviously a pineapple.... [obviously to any self-respecting Bahamian... lol]



LOL - he changed it from the turtle that he had. Had not seen the new one.
Fresh ASCAT of 95L, slightly elongated but about there..
Quoting 1196. HurricaneHunterJoe:


Kinda hard competing financially with 3rd world economies?....And keep our accustomed standard of living?.....No?


I will never achieve the standard of living that my parents did - that in part is because I chose to go back to school - and pay for it all.

But, things have to change - otherwise, I see us having the same economic structure as Mexico. Not to knock Mexico, but it is a similar income distribution that is happening here.
Quoting 1195. daddyjames:


Really. 95L may do something, but looks as if it'll remain in the BOC for a bit.

Manuel will pump moisture up into Texas/OK - that is a good thing.

Humberto is dying.

Everything going into Florida for the next week is non-tropical.

The next week looks slow . . . so, more time to discuss GW ;)


I was talking about potential problems for Florida be they tropical or otherwise....let us hope these forecast rainfall totals are off base as usual. 8-12" of rain in parts of florida, especially central and south with the lake issues.
I'm not too concerned to be honest, I have two parents that both understand real well how college works and how to handle debt loads such as college tuition. And I have a college plan that was created when I was born, which already contains a fairly substantial sum in it.

Quoting 1198. jpsb:


If you are talking about the older older generation the ones that gave us income taxes, the federal reserve, direct election of Senators and lots of other bad progressive ideas then I totally agree with you.


Those generations have long since left this earth.
1205. jpsb
Quoting 1201. daddyjames:


I will never achieve the standard of living that my parents did - that in part is because I chose to go back to school - and pay for it all.

But, things have to change - otherwise, I see us having the same economic structure as Mexico. Not to knock Mexico, but it is a similar income distribution that is happening here.
A good way to go to school on the cheap is first 2 years at a good community college last 2 at a good state school.
Quoting 1204. daddyjames:


Those generations have long since left this earth.


Yeah, lol, we the younger generation need some living folk to point our muscular gaming/texting fingers at for all this.
1207. jpsb
Quoting 1204. daddyjames:


Those generations have long since left this earth.
Yup and left us a really big mess to clean up.
Quoting 1202. HurricaneHunterJoe:


I was talking about potential problems for Florida be they tropical or otherwise....let us hope these forecast rainfall totals are off base as usual. 8-12" of rain in parts of florida, especially central and south with the lake issues.


I think it'll be ok in the long run. Florida has suffered worse. Of course, I could be totally wrong.
1209. flsky
Quoting 1205. jpsb:
A good way to go to school on the cheap is first 2 years at a good community college last 2 at a good state school.

Gotta make sure they're "good."
Very recent Terra of USAGI.




Quoting 1193. BahaHurican:
Agreed. I'd like to make a really egregious political comment here.

But instead I think I'll go to bed. Ban myself instead of being banned...

G'nite 2 all...

Nice to see some self moderation with a near full moon out there:)

Rest of you on that topic.. you have a blog, I think it even comes with a soap box..
1211. GatorWX
Just wanted to say I finally made it across the pond. Lovin' it! 95L hasn't done much since I've been gone. Models are everywhere. Doesn't look like I'm missing much over there in the tropics.
Quoting 1201. daddyjames:


I will never achieve the standard of living that my parents did - that in part is because I chose to go back to school - and pay for it all.

But, things have to change - otherwise, I see us having the same economic structure as Mexico. Not to knock Mexico, but it is a similar income distribution that is happening here.


There is the tipping point...it could be very ugly.....Not enough jobs........Wages stagnant......Corporate profits up........Mostly service job/Low Wage......Hope the changes needed come before too much suffering.

Sorry, Back to weather.......just hope those rainfall forecasts are wrong and way overblown on the high side
Quoting 1205. jpsb:
A good way to go to school on the cheap is first 2 years at a good community college last 2 at a good state school.


Our good state school, which is one of the least expensive in the nation, would cost $44,000 for two years, at least.

As i said before, i worked my way through school - and finished in four years (the first time). Can't see students being able to do that these days. Not with the wages as they are, and the jobs available.
Quoting 1210. Skyepony:
Very recent Terra of USAGI.





Nice to see some self moderation with a near full moon out there:)

Rest of you on that topic.. you have a blog, I think it even comes with a soap box..


Appreciate the kind heads up - things were a little slow. Will cease and desist.

P.S. - and i all fairness, i did start it.
1215. flsky
Quoting 1189. daddyjames:


I agree - its freaking ridiculous. I don;t see how this is not going to undermine our society on a whole. There is no way that you can go to college, work, and pay for everything.

You could move to France - better food, too....
Rest of you on that topic.. you have a blog, I think it even comes with a soap box..


haha
Quoting 1211. GatorWX:
Just wanted to say I finally made it across the pond. Lovin' it! 95L hasn't done much since I've been gone. Models are everywhere. Doesn't look like I'm missing much over there in the tropics.


Glad you made it. How's the weather there?
CO floods made a polluted mess of the oil & gas industry..

Environment Pollution in USA on Thursday, 19 September, 2013 at 03:15 (03:15 AM) UTC.
Description
Industry crews have placed absorbent booms in the South Platte River south of Milliken where at least 5,250 gallons of crude oil has spilled into the flood-swollen river. The spill from a damaged tank was reported to the Colorado Department of Natural Resources Wednesday afternoon by Anadarko Petroleum, as is required by state law. State officials have responded to the spill site, which is south of Milliken near where the St. Vrain River flows into the South Platte. Nearly 1,900 oil and gas wells in flooded areas of Colorado are shut, and 600 industry personnel are inspecting and repairing sites, according to the Colorado Oil and Gas Association. Crews are inspecting operations, conducting aerial and ground surveillance, identifying and determining locations of possible impairments, the association said Tuesday. Anadarko, the second-largest operator in the operator in the Denver-Julesburg Basin, has shut about 10 percent of its operations 250 tank batteries and 670 wells. State inspectors also have fanned along the river to assess environmental damage from toppled oil and gas facilities after the floods.ű
Quoting 1203. Astrometeor:
I'm not too concerned to be honest, I have two parents that both understand real well how college works and how to handle debt loads such as college tuition. And I have a college plan that was created when I was born, which already contains a fairly substantial sum in it.



Glad to hear that
Quoting 1211. GatorWX:
Just wanted to say I finally made it across the pond. Lovin' it! 95L hasn't done much since I've been gone. Models are everywhere. Doesn't look like I'm missing much over there in the tropics.


Dos Margaritas por favor!
I miss a long-tracked powerful Cape Verde system. Will we ever see them again?
1222. jpsb
Quoting 1209. flsky:

Gotta make sure they're "good."
Absolutely, but first two years are mostly, math, English, physics, maybe some engineering, maybe a little history. All can be found at a good community college and if you grades are good getting into a state school is a piece of cake after 2 years in at CC.
Quoting 1213. daddyjames:


Our good state school, which is one of the least expensive in the nation, would cost $44,000 for two years, at least.

As i said before, i worked my way through school - and finished in four years (the first time). Can't see students being able to do that these days. Not with the wages as they are, and the jobs available.
Government funded "student loans" drove up the cost of higher education. As soon as government funds anything the costs go way up. When I went to school it was 15 to 20 bucks and hour. I did not need a loan to pay for school I could make 5 to 8 bucks an hour part time.
Quoting 1222. jpsb:
Absolutely, but first two years are mostly, math, English, physics, maybe some engineering, maybe a little history. All can be found at a good community college and if you grades are good getting into a state school is a piece of cake after 2 years in at CC. Government funded "student loans" drove up the cost of higher education. As soon as government funds anything the costs go way up. When I went to school it as 15 to 20 bucks and hour. I did not need a loan to pay for school I could make 5 to 8 bucks and hour part time.


Last word - promise skye.

Check out the percent funding of public schools receive from the public (state) and how it has declined precipitously. Compare that with the raise in tuition, and the increase in administrative costs that have occurred over the same period.

We can discuss it further via WU mail so we don't get in trouble . . . .

Oh well... my parents seem to be confident in getting this debt out of my way if I'm in a university instead of community college all 4 years. I do have loans out already and I have to start working jobs until retirement starting in December. Only reason why I don't have job now is because my parents want me to get used to college first.
Good evening, weathergeeks! ;)

Sfc Map shows 1004mb, discussion 1005mb. Presentation looking better, I guess. Sabancuy radar shows a closed but sloppy-looking llc. Only moderate convection with a few towers popping. Still a broad circulation, but tightening slowly maybe.



1226. scott39
I'm probably out for the rest of the Atlantic "hurricane" Season. See everyone next season. Be good and stay safe :)
Quoting 1224. Bluestorm5:
Oh well... my parents seem to be confident in getting this debt out of my way if I'm in a university instead of community college all 4 years. I do have loans out already and I have to start working jobs until retirement starting in December. Only reason why I don't have job now is because my parents want me to get used to college first.


I agree, focus on your education - eventually it'll pan out.
Quoting 1221. lobdelse81:
I miss a long-tracked powerful Cape Verde system. Will we ever see them again?
Not this year! The shows over baby! And when it's over,,,IT"S OVER! Now there's always next year of course.
Quoting 1221. lobdelse81:
I miss a long-tracked powerful Cape Verde system. Will we ever see them again?


lol

yes
Good night WU.



Quoting 1226. scott39:
I'm probably out for the rest of the Atlantic "hurricane" Season. See everyone next season. Be good and stay safe :)


If 95L makes a comeback overnight into tomorrow, and you come back, I'll remind you of this. :)
1232. jpsb
Quoting 1228. HurriHistory:
Not this year! The shows over baby! And when it's over,,,IT"S OVER! Now there's always next year of course.
Someone posted a link about the SAL and dust. I read the article and there was a very recent NASA pic of all the dust blowing into the Atlantic. Very impressive, I think SAL killed the CV storms this year. Might happen again next year too.

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1006 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

GMZ001-191415-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1006 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR 21N95W LATE THU...POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...THEN MEANDER NEAR 22N96W ON FRI AND SAT. A COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE NW GULF ON FRI NIGHT REACHING A POSITION FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO THE SW GULF ON SAT MERGING WITH THE LOW. THE
FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE SW
GULF ON SUN...THEN STALL FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE EASTERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE ON MON. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SE ON SUN
REACHING NEAR 21N95W BY LATE MON.
1234. scott39
Quoting 1231. KoritheMan:


If 95L makes a comeback overnight into tomorrow, and you come back, I'll remind you of this. :)
lol I did say probably. I've got a lot going on and enthusiasm is waning. Take care and stay true.
Quoting 1226. scott39:
I'm probably out for the rest of the Atlantic "hurricane" Season. See everyone next season. Be good and stay safe :)


Take care bud!
1236. scott39
Quoting 1235. HurricaneHunterJoe:


Take care bud!
you too
Quoting 1234. scott39:
lol I did say probably. I've got a lot going on and enthusiasm is waning. Take care and stay true.


Oh, you don't have to worry about that. ;)
Well folks, I'm stepping of the soap box - and heading off to bed.

Catch you all later.
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1200 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2013

VALID 12Z SAT SEP 21 2013 - 12Z WED SEP 25 2013

BASELINE SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURES AND 500 MB GRAPHICS WERE A BLEND
OF THE 18/00Z ECENS GEFS AND NAEFS...WITH SOME OF THE
SMALLER-SCALE DETAILS AND TIMING DIFFERENCES SIDING WITH THE
18/00Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF.

FORECAST REASONING AND PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AT ALL FROM
24 HOURS AGO. THE DETERMINISTIC UKMET AND CANADIAN ARE THE FAR
WESTERN OUTLIERS WITH A 'YET-TO-EVOLVE' DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE (DAYS 3-5). THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WERE PREFERRED
YESTERDAY AND THE UPCOMING WPC/NHC CONFERENCE CALL SHOULD FIRM UP
SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE DETAILS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE 18/00Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE
SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD AND INTERACT
WITH A DECAYING...FRACTURED MID-LATITUDE FRONTAL BOUNDARY (DAY4)
AND THE 18/00Z GFS/ECMWF LOOKED VERY REASONABLE WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL H5 CENTER TRANSPOSING ITSELF ATOP THE LOW-LEVEL WAVE
TRACKING NORTHEAST-BOUND ALONG THIS 'FRONT'. THE DAY5-6 SURFACE
GRAPHICS WERE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR A 'SLOWDOWN' OF THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE FRONT. THIS IMPLIES THE FRONT WILL NOT SURGE THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS...BUT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT DOES MOVE
OFFSHORE NORTH OF 40N...THEN RETURNS AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AROUND DAY 6.

DAYS 5-7...ACTIVE PACIFIC PATTERN REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFFSHORE OF THE WEST COAST. BY DAY
7...ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO RELOAD THE UPPER-LEVEL
LONGWAVE AND READJUST THE WAVELENGTH INVOF 140W. DOWNWIND ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS...THE FLOW ALOFT IS DE-AMPLIFYING WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW A WEAK SURGE OF CANADIAN AIRMASS TO SEEP INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DAY4...THEN MODIFYING RAPIDLY IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM DAYS 6-7.

EDIT
Looks like they not buying the western solutions of UKMET and GEM?
1240. jpsb
Quoting 1221. lobdelse81:
I miss a long-tracked powerful Cape Verde system. Will we ever see them again?
home grown storms can be very impressive too.
Typhoon Usagi



Hong Kong Anyone?

Quoting 1237. KoritheMan:


Oh, you don't have to worry about that. ;)

The EURO and some of the GFS ensembles take AL95 north. I dont know if I should put much faith into it because it always fools us. Always.
Tropical Depression 18W coming ashore near Hue, Socialist Republic of Vietnam

1239: look at the time that discussion was issued. That's 12 hours old. It has changed since then.
Eye is gradually clearing out over the last few hours.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU SEP 19 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION HUMBERTO...LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC WELL TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH...AND A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY SPREAD HEAVY RAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MEXICO AND COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS ALREADY IMPACTED BY
TORRENTIAL RAIN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A SURFACE TROUGH...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM IN THIS AREA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE LOW COULD STILL ACQUIRE
SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MANUEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
1100 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2013

...MANUEL MOVING SLOWLY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 108.1W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM WNW OF ALTATA MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
Hurricane Manual just offshore Mexico. Loop was not working.

are there any radars on along the western coast of Mexico ??
Quoting 1250. whitewabit:
are there any radars on along the western coast of Mexico ??


#1248 Guasave,Mexico
Quoting 1208. daddyjames:


I think it'll be ok in the long run. Florida has suffered worse. Of course, I could be totally wrong.


Yeah, we'll live, and every plant in the area will be thankful. I hope rainfall is not sufficient to cause severe flooding. I don't think severe flooding is likely.
Manual will dump a lot of rain moving very slowly north at 3mph.
Quoting 1250. whitewabit:
are there any radars on along the western coast of Mexico ??


Link
Quoting 1252. HurrMichaelOrl:


Yeah, we'll live, and every plant in the area will be thankful. I hope rainfall is not sufficient to cause severe flooding. I don't think severe flooding is likely.


Hope the rainfall totals are lower for sure.
Quoting 1189. daddyjames:


I agree - its freaking ridiculous. I don;t see how this is not going to undermine our society on a whole. There is no way that you can go to college, work, and pay for everything.


Older generation did it, don't see why the new generation can't...
Manuel remains at 65 kts.

EP, 13, 2013091906, , BEST, 0, 247N, 1082W, 65, 987, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 10, 0, 0, 1006, 90, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MANUEL, M,
AL, 95, 2013091906, , BEST, 0, 202N, 934W, 25, 1004, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 160, 110, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,




I dont know what to say
1262. guygee
Quoting 1257. weather12know:


Older generation did it, don't see why the new generation can't...
Rising tuition, Pell Grants decimated, privatized student loans with high interest, labor unions destroyed, death of the middle class, the "Great Recession", jobs lost to computers and robots or sent to Asia ... good luck, kids!
AL, 09, 2013091906, , BEST, 0, 330N, 445W, 30, 1009, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 170, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, M,
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON USAGI (T1319)
15:00 PM JST September 19 2013
======================================

Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Usagi (925 hPa) located at 17.5N 128.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 7 knots.

Storm Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
270 NM from the center

Dvorak intensity: T6.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 19.4N 125.2E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 20.8N 122.1E - 105 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 21.7N 118.6E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Northern South China Sea
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU SEP 19 2013


CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A SURFACE TROUGH...AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM IN THIS AREA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE LOW COULD STILL ACQUIRE
SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

INVEST 96L coming soon
2013SEP19 070100 6.2 923.8 +2.0 119.8 5.8 6.3 7.4 0.5T/hour ON OFF -2.58 -80.44 EYE 18 IR 73.4 17.73 -127.85

A Raw Dvorak of near 7.5!

don't get carried away silly "rabbit" typhoon
The best way nowadays to get an education seems, to me, the military. That's the route I'm going.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24
15:00 PM JST September 19 2013
======================================

Near Marianas Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 14.0N 148.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest slowly

Dvorak intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 15.1N 147.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas Island
1269. barbamz

Good morning with Usagi, a dangerous beauty.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 PM AST WED SEP 18 2013

...HUMBERTO WEAKENING OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 43.4W
ABOUT 1000 MI...1605 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
200 AM PDT THU SEP 19 2013

...MANUEL CRAWLING NORTHWARD VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 108.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NW OF ALTATA MEXICO
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 AM AST THU SEP 19 2013

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HUMBERTO IS LIMITED TO A CLUSTER OF
CELLS LOCATED 100-200 N MI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE CYCLONE IS
MAINTAINED AS A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT
IT COULD BE CLOSE TO BECOMING POST-TROPICAL. THE GLOBAL MODELS
HAVE ALL TRENDED TOWARDS SHOWING THE SURFACE WIND FIELD OF HUMBERTO
OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH IN 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN WE HAVE BEEN
INDICATING. FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS POINTS OUT TO 36 HOURS. IF IT DOES LAST THAT LONG...HUMBERTO
SHOULD ULTIMATELY BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE BY 48 HOURS.

A MORE WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER HAS FORMED...BUT THAT NOW PUTS
HUMBERTO ABOUT A DEGREE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES.
REGARDLESS...THE DEPRESSION IS STILL MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWARD
AROUND 7 KT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED
TO CAUSE HUMBERTO TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE WITHIN 24
HOURS AND THEN MAINTAIN THAT HEADING UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE
FIRST 24 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ADJUSTED INITIAL POSITION...BUT
OTHERWISE THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 33.0N 44.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 34.5N 43.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 36.3N 41.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 38.6N 38.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 21/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT

$$
FORECASTER BERG
HURRICANE MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
200 AM PDT THU SEP 19 2013

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF MANUEL HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN
GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER A SERIES OF MICROWAVE
PASSES AND RADAR DATA FROM GUASAVE MEXICO SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER
HAS REMAINED OFFSHORE THUS FAR...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERN EYEWALL HAS
BEEN OVER LAND FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MICROWAVE IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTED
SOME TILT TO THE CIRCULATION...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DISPLACED
A BIT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. GIVEN THAT THE
CENTER STILL APPEARS TO BE OFFSHORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD
AT 65 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM
TAFB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 355/03. THE AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE FIXES SHOWED THAT THE CENTER IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST AND
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE STEERING...
THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LARGE SPREAD. THE NHC
FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND SHOW THE CENTER OF MANUEL
MOVING SLOWLY INLAND NEAR THE COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS GENERAL IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS...ECMWF...FIM...AND HWRF
MODELS. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF
MANUEL COULD DECOUPLE FROM THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND
LINGER OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS...AS
SHOWN BY THE UKMET. NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW
IN THE TRACK FORECAST.

AS MORE OF THE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER LAND IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. WITH THE NHC TRACK FORECAST SHOWING THE
CYCLONE REMAINING INLAND...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
STEADY WEAKENING WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY 72 HOURS. IF THE
CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER LONGER...THE CIRCULATION COULD PERSIST
LONGER AND WEAKEN SLOWER THAN SHOWN HERE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 24.8N 108.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 25.3N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 20/0600Z 25.5N 108.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 20/1800Z 25.6N 108.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 21/0600Z 25.7N 108.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
1274. barbamz
Mexico storms: Hurricane Manuel upgraded and near coast
BBC, September 19

US meteorologists say Tropical Storm Manuel, which has battered the south-west of Mexico, has gathered strength and is now a category one hurricane.

Hurricane Manuel is now approaching north-western Mexico and threatens more destruction, the US National Hurricane Centre said.

The tropical storms Ingrid and Manuel killed 80 people earlier this week.

Now 58 people are reported missing after a landslide buried a village in the south-west of the country.

US experts say Hurricane Manuel is sustaining winds of 120km/h (75mph) and moving towards the coast.
'Very powerful landslide'

President Enrique Pena Nieto said that 58 people were missing after the landslide in the village of La Pintada in Guerrero state.

"It doesn't look good, based on the photos we have in our possession," said Mexican Interior Minister Miguel Angel Osorio Chong, saying it was a "very powerful" landslide.

"Up to this point, we do not have any [confirmed] dead in the landslide," he added.
...
Beautiful.



Raw T number is up to 7.5/155 kts.

2013SEP19 080100 6.2 923.8 2.0 119.8 6.0 7.1 7.5 1.7T/6hr ON OFF 5.78 -80.83 EYE 18 IR 73.4 17.79 -127.75 COMBO MTSAT2 28.7
Usagi is now up to 120 kts according to JTWC. Although I believe it's a little stronger than that, perhaps at about 130 kts.

Small, but tight inner core on the recent microwave imagery.

1278. VR46L
Split but not as split

1279. barbamz
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #10
TYPHOON ODETTE
5:00 PM PhST September 19 2013
=================================================

Typhoon "ODETTE" has gained strength as it moves in a northwest direction towards northern Luzon

At 4:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Odette [USAGI] (958 hPa) located at 17.8N, 127.7E or 570 km east of Tuguegarao City has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gustiness up to 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 8 knots.

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #2

Luzon Region
--------------
1. Batanes Group of Islands
2. Cagayan
3. Calayan
4. Babuyan Group of Island
5. Apayao

Signal Warning #1

Luzon Region
-------------
1. Iocos Norte
2. Ilocos Sur
3. Mt. Province
4. Ifugao
5. Abra
6. Kalinga
7. Isabela

Additional Information
========================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-20 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 700 km diameter of the typhoon.

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas under signal #2 & #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under signal #2 are alerted against storm surges.

"ODETTE" will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon that will bring moderate to occasionally heavy rains and thunderstorms over MIMAROPA, western Visayas, Cavite, Laguna and Batangas. Residents in these areas are advised to be alert against flashfloods and landslides.

Sea travel is risky over the seaboards of Occidental Mindoro and Palawan and over the eastern seaboard of central and southern Luzon and of Visayas.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
1281. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
ELEVATED SEAS DUE TO OVERNIGHT EASTERLY SURGES IN WIND COULD BRING
AT LEAST CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS TO THE GULF WATERS. SEE THE LATEST
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE BEACHES OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED WINDS AND WAVES DUE TO A DEVELOPING GULF
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE RIP CURRENT RISK NEXT
WEEK.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A WEATHER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH FLORIDA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BRING ELEVATED
WINDS AND SEAS TO THE WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

$$

1282. LargoFl
1283. LargoFl
GEM model for next Tuesday................
1284. LargoFl
SAB thinks Usagi is a Category 5 typhoon.

19/0832 UTC 17.9N 127.6E T7.0/7.0 USAGI -- West Pacific
JMA did not change in intensity at the 6PM JST advisory.

meanwhile 98W (24)

2013SEP19 090100 2.5 997.0 0.0 35.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -19.25 -48.77 CRVBND N/A N/A 14.11 -148.14
false alarm again central florida..... everything has changed as usual..... maybe a little rain next week but thats it
Good morning to everyone (even though its already almost noon here in Amsterdam) :) I see Manuel has pulled off a bit of a surprise, changing course and intensity...

On a different note, the wikipedia articles for the 2013 atlantic and pacific hurricane seasons still show 15 casualties for Manuel and 23 for Ingrid, despite media reports now suggesting at least 80 deaths from the two storms combined... However, most articles are yet to separate the death toll according to each storm - I don't even know how easy that will be, but can anyone that likes to edit on WP maybe fix the tolls or at least share a link to a news article where new and updated ones are available?
Usagi will very likely be the first Category 5 cyclone of 2013.
1290. jeebsa
Quoting 1284. LargoFl:
Good to see you back Largo I miss the morning maps.
Quoting 1289. Civicane49:
Usagi will very likely be the first Category 5 cyclone of 2013.


Agreed, already has the same pressure as Utor (925) and forecasts show at least a 10 to 20 knot increase in winds before reaching Taiwan... Also showing it to pass directly over Hong Kong on the 22nd with sustained winds of 100+ knots, not a pretty scenario - this could turn out to be the costliest, if not the deadliest storm in the WPAC this season :/
2013SEP19 090100 6.8 906.3 +1.9 134.8 6.8 7.5 7.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 5.90 -81.14 EYE 19 IR 73.4 17.92 -127.63 COMBO MTSAT2 28.9
a few new areas to keep a keen eye on. better have the A game today
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. An even warmer 76 degrees already this morning, with a high of 92 expected, so a 'little' cooler. A chance of rain this afternoon, but a 70% chance tomorrow. We can only hope...

I see Manuel is back to a hurricane, and the poor people of Tampico can't get a break. :(

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Corn Waffles With Cajun Vegetables and Shrimp, whole wheat pancakes with fruit sauce, egg burritos with cheese and chorizo, bacon and egg grilled cheese, egg & cheese quesadillas, French toast roll-ups, thick slices honey ham, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
T numbers from ADT are now at 7.0/140 kts, equivalent of a Category 5 cyclone.

2013SEP19 093200 7.0 899.9 1.9 140.0 7.0 7.6 7.6 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 5.18 -81.46 EYE 18 IR 71.3 17.98 -127.57 COMBO MTSAT2 29.0
Good morning, WU!

Looks like there have been a few developments:

-Humberto is (finally) a tropical depression

-Miguel is still (!) a hurricane

-Usagi/Odette has gotten stronger, is looking good, and headed between the Philippines & Taiwan

-TD 18 is at the coast of Central Vietnam, headed inland

-95L looks to be headed to Mexico

-there's a new yellow circle E/NE of the Bahamas

-the South Platte River near Kersey (east of Greeley, CO) is still in major flood stage

and, last but not least, there's a bunch of rain headed our way here in S. Louisiana from the front coming through this weekend

I know for a lot of folks that adds up to 'boring', but that's plenty enough for me :)

(please let me know if I've missed anything of significance)

EDIT: also, TD east of the Mariana Islands
1298. yoboi
Quoting 1278. VR46L:
Split but not as split




yeah
What a storm. Probably at or near Cat 5 intensity based off satellite estimates. The relative regularity with which the West Pacific can produce storms like this is scary.



It'll probably perform an EWRC at some point starting within the next 24 hours, probably sooner, due to the rather tight inner core shown by microwave imagery. Hopefully that will weaken it some.
Good morning everybody.

There is no doubt in my mind that Usagi is a category 5, if not very close to becoming one. It's pretty much perfect in every way.
heard alot from the west side of mexico but not the east. eastern? fearful what we might find out.
1302. VR46L
Goodbye Humberto , don't see ya coming back this time

Now at 140 kts.

Usagi is the first Category 5 cyclone of 2013.

Quoting 1302. VR46L:
Goodbye Humberto , don't see ya coming back this time



So long, it's been good to know you
1305. VR46L
Quoting 1304. LAbonbon:


So long, it's been good to know you


Actually I was thinking of this one for the ACE counters

Crowded House - Don't Dream It's Over
1306. LargoFl

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY ON SATURDAY. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

$$
DOH!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Top climate scientists admit global warming forecasts were wrong!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Can you believe this, the top 50 scientists agree on this one!





A leaked draft of a report by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is understood to concede that the computer predictions for global warming and the effects of carbon emissions have been proved to be inaccurate.

The report, to be published later this month, is a six year assessment which is seen as the gospel of climate science and is cited to justify fuel taxes and subsidies for renewable energy.

The “summary for policymakers” of the report, seen by the Mail on Sunday, states that the world is warming at a rate of 0.12C per decade since 1951, compared to a prediction of 0.13C per decade in their last assessment published in 2007.

Other admission in the latest document include that forecast computers may not have taken enough notice of natural variability in the climate, therefore exaggerating the effect of increased carbon emissions on world temperatures.

The governments which fund the IPCC have tabled 1,800 questions in relation to the report.
Related Articles

‘Hack the planet to counter climate change,’ says Lord Rees
12 Sep 2013

Climate change killed the woolly mammoth, researchers claim
11 Sep 2013

Summers are getting hotter – honest
11 Sep 2013

One of the central issues is believed to be why the IPCC failed to account for the “pause” in global warming, which they admit that they did not predict in their computer models. Since 1997, world average temperatures have not shown any statistically significant increase.

The summary also shows that scientist have now discovered that between 950 and 1250 AD, before the Industrial Revolution, parts of the world were as warm for decades at a time as they are now.

Despite a 2012 draft stating that the world is at it’s warmest for 1,300 years, the latest document states: “'Surface temperature reconstructions show multi-decadal intervals during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950-1250) that were in some regions as warm as in the late 20th Century.”

The 2007 report included predictions of a decline in Antarctic sea ice, but the latest document does not explain why this year it is at a record high.

The 2013 report states: “'Most models simulate a small decreasing trend in Antarctic sea ice extent, in contrast to the small increasing trend in observations ...

“There is low confidence in the scientific understanding of the small observed increase in Antarctic sea ice extent.'

The 2007 forecast for more intense hurricanes has also been ignored in the new document after this year was one of the quietest hurricane seasons in history.

One of the report's authors, Professor Myles Allen, the director of Oxford University's Climate Research Network, has said that people should not look to the IPCC for a “bible” on climate change.

Professor Allen, who admits “we need to look very carefully about what the IPCC does in future”, said that he could not comment on the report as it was still considered to be in its draft stages.

However, he added: “It is a complete fantasy to think that you can compile an infallible or approximately infallible report, that is just not how science works.

“It is not a bible, it is a scientific review, an assessment of the literature. Frankly both sides are seriously confused on how science works - the critics of the IPCC and the environmentalists who credit the IPCC as if it is the gospel."

Scientist were constantly revising their research to account for new data, he said.

Despite the uncertainties and contradictions, the IPCC insists that it is more confident than ever – 95 per cent certain - that global warming is mainly human’s fault.

Next week 40 of the 250 authors who contributed to the report and representatives of most of the 195 governments that fund the IPCC will hold a meeting in Stockholm to discuss the finding to discuss any issues ahead of the publication. The body has insisted that this is not a crisis meeting but a pre-planned discussion.
1308. LargoFl
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, ISOLATED STREET FLOODING POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS PALM BEACHES, SLIGHT RISK BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE BEACHES...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST AND A SLIGHT RISK ALONG THE BROWARD AND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY COAST.

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TODAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED STREET
FLOODING.

FLOODING: ISOLATED STREET FLOODING AND FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND
POORLY DRAINED AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY, ESPECIALLY IF
HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS OVER AREAS WHICH RECEIVED HIGH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS YESTERDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS POISED TO MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA, BUT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS WELL, PARTICULARLY TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO A THREAT OF FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE UPCOMING DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OR FLOODING
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

$$

GREGORIA
1309. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AS ACTIVITY MOVES IN FROM THE
ATLANTIC. COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHER SOUTH OF THE CAPE. OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND A BURST OF HEAVY RAIN WITH LOW VISIBILITY
WILL ALSO OCCUR.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
A FEW LOCATIONS PRIMARILY IN BREVARD...INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE
AND MARTIN COUNTIES MAY SEE ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN. THIS
COULD LEAD TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO OR THREE INCHES...CAUSING
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A LONG PERIOD EAST SWELL WILL BRING A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
AT THE BEACHES. IN ADDITION...BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO
ROUGH SURF WHICH CAN KNOCK YOU DOWN AND MAKE YOU SUSCEPTIBLE
TO DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. CHECK WITH OCEAN RESCUE PERSONNEL ABOUT
THE LOCAL SURF DANGERS WHEN ARRIVING AT THE BEACH.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
A FEW SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS MAY PRODUCE WINDS AROUND 35
KNOTS AS THEY MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE
INTRACOASTAL WATERS. ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING AND PUSHING
WESTWARDS OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS OVER THE LARGER INLAND LAKES.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS OF VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES FOR SEAS UP TO 7 FEET. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ELSEWHERE FOR SEAS UP TO 6 FEET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST THIS WEEKEND.

DRIER AIR WILL PRODUCE LOWER RAIN AND STORM CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. BUT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL
FLORIDA FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A PROLONGED THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

KELLY
Quoting 1307. trunkmonkey:
DOH!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Dude! The blog had a good vibe going sharing information on the tropics. I hope that post doesn't derail the conversation.
Quoting 1295. aislinnpaps:
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. An even warmer 76 degrees already this morning, with a high of 92 expected, so a 'little' cooler. A chance of rain this afternoon, but a 70% chance tomorrow. We can only hope...

I see Manuel is back to a hurricane, and the poor people of Tampico can't get a break. :(

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Corn Waffles With Cajun Vegetables and Shrimp, whole wheat pancakes with fruit sauce, egg burritos with cheese and chorizo, bacon and egg grilled cheese, egg & cheese quesadillas, French toast roll-ups, thick slices honey ham, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!



What are "corn waffles"? Is that cornbread from a waffle maker? Throw in a little chicken fried venison with all of that and I'm on my way!!!!
1312. K8eCane
everytime I think the season is surely over my mind says * HAZEL*
1313. LargoFl
So from reading all the nws discussions,my guess is comes sun-mon-tues of next week rainfall totals just might get impressive in central florida
Quoting 1310. StAugustineFL:


Dude! The blog had a good vibe going sharing information on the tropics. I hope that post doesn't derail the conversation.


StAugustine - I was just thinking that exact thought. It won't, if people don't take the bait. Sadly, I'm sure someone will...

Quoting 781. FunnelVortex:


You can not blame one anomalous year on GW.
No, you can't. And no one ever has. And no one ever will. But that wasn't my point.
Quoting 785. KoritheMan:


I wouldn't claim it with certainty, but I don't think the lack of tropical cyclone activity on Earth this year has anything to do with climate change. It's probably just a global circulation pattern. We've observed this in other years as well, like 1977.

If it happens more often than not, we might have an argument. But nobody knows how climate change affects the planet just yet, aside from the very bare basics.
Again, that wasn't my point. My point--and, far more importantly, the point expressed by a large and growing number of climate scientists--is that, while this year's relative lack of TC activity can't be laid at the feet of climate change, neither can anyone claim that climate change hasn't had any effect. Period. The fact of the matter is that the entire atmosphere has been altered in ways subtle and not-so-subtle, and each and every weather event is taking place in that altered atmosphere. And while some may believe or wish otherwise, that point is undeniable.
1316. yoboi
Quoting 1307. trunkmonkey:
DOH!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Top climate scientists admit global warming forecasts were wrong!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Can you believe this, the top 50 scientists agree on this one!





A leaked draft of a report by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is understood to concede that the computer predictions for global warming and the effects of carbon emissions have been proved to be inaccurate.

The report, to be published later this month, is a six year assessment which is seen as the gospel of climate science and is cited to justify fuel taxes and subsidies for renewable energy.

The “summary for policymakers” of the report, seen by the Mail on Sunday, states that the world is warming at a rate of 0.12C per decade since 1951, compared to a prediction of 0.13C per decade in their last assessment published in 2007.

Other admission in the latest document include that forecast computers may not have taken enough notice of natural variability in the climate, therefore exaggerating the effect of increased carbon emissions on world temperatures.

The governments which fund the IPCC have tabled 1,800 questions in relation to the report.
Related Articles

‘Hack the planet to counter climate change,’ says Lord Rees
12 Sep 2013

Climate change killed the woolly mammoth, researchers claim
11 Sep 2013

Summers are getting hotter – honest
11 Sep 2013

One of the central issues is believed to be why the IPCC failed to account for the “pause” in global warming, which they admit that they did not predict in their computer models. Since 1997, world average temperatures have not shown any statistically significant increase.

The summary also shows that scientist have now discovered that between 950 and 1250 AD, before the Industrial Revolution, parts of the world were as warm for decades at a time as they are now.

Despite a 2012 draft stating that the world is at it’s warmest for 1,300 years, the latest document states: “'Surface temperature reconstructions show multi-decadal intervals during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950-1250) that were in some regions as warm as in the late 20th Century.”

The 2007 report included predictions of a decline in Antarctic sea ice, but the latest document does not explain why this year it is at a record high.

The 2013 report states: “'Most models simulate a small decreasing trend in Antarctic sea ice extent, in contrast to the small increasing trend in observations ...

“There is low confidence in the scientific understanding of the small observed increase in Antarctic sea ice extent.'

The 2007 forecast for more intense hurricanes has also been ignored in the new document after this year was one of the quietest hurricane seasons in history.

One of the report's authors, Professor Myles Allen, the director of Oxford University's Climate Research Network, has said that people should not look to the IPCC for a “bible” on climate change.

Professor Allen, who admits “we need to look very carefully about what the IPCC does in future”, said that he could not comment on the report as it was still considered to be in its draft stages.

However, he added: “It is a complete fantasy to think that you can compile an infallible or approximately infallible report, that is just not how science works.

“It is not a bible, it is a scientific review, an assessment of the literature. Frankly both sides are seriously confused on how science works - the critics of the IPCC and the environmentalists who credit the IPCC as if it is the gospel."

Scientist were constantly revising their research to account for new data, he said.

Despite the uncertainties and contradictions, the IPCC insists that it is more confident than ever – 95 per cent certain - that global warming is mainly human’s fault.

Next week 40 of the 250 authors who contributed to the report and representatives of most of the 195 governments that fund the IPCC will hold a meeting in Stockholm to discuss the finding to discuss any issues ahead of the publication. The body has insisted that this is not a crisis meeting but a pre-planned discussion.



Do you have a link for all of this????
1317. VR46L
Quoting 1314. LAbonbon:


StAugustine - I was just thinking that exact thought. It won't, if people don't take the bait. Sadly, I'm sure someone will...



And it will be very soon too ...
1318. K8eCane
Quoting 1315. Neapolitan:
No, you can't. And no one ever has. And no one ever will. But that wasn't my point.Again, that wasn't my point. My point--and, far more importantly, the point expressed by a large and growing number of climate scientists--is that, while this year's relative lack of TC activity can't be laid at the feet of climate change, neither can anyone claim that climate change hasn't had any effect. Period. The fact of the matter is that the entire atmosphere has been altered in ways subtle and not-so-subtle, and each and every weather event is taking place in that altered atmosphere. And while some may believe or wish otherwise, that point is undeniable.



Even the presence of space vehicles has caused altering, including satellites
1319. K8eCane
Quoting 1318. K8eCane:



Even the presence of space vehicles has caused altering, including satellites



THERE. I took the bait
1320. LargoFl
IF the GFS precip verifies,might be good news for texas..........
Too many hurricanes - GW to blame
Lack of hurricanes - GW to blame

Ah well, at least it's not being blamed on the President.
And so it begins...again...
Quoting 1321. HimacaneBrees:
Too many hurricanes - GW to blame
Lack of hurricanes - GW to blame

Ah well, at least it's not being blamed on the President.



(Unless it's Bush.)
1324. yoboi
Quoting 1315. Neapolitan:
No, you can't. And no one ever has. And no one ever will. But that wasn't my point.Again, that wasn't my point. My point--and, far more importantly, the point expressed by a large and growing number of climate scientists--is that, while this year's relative lack of TC activity can't be laid at the feet of climate change, neither can anyone claim that climate change hasn't had any effect. Period. The fact of the matter is that the entire atmosphere has been altered in ways subtle and not-so-subtle, and each and every weather event is taking place in that altered atmosphere. And while some may believe or wish otherwise, that point is undeniable.


Maybe Smokey can help you figure it out....I think ole Ben Franklin said it the best..." start with the basics and work your way up"

Edit: Clinton said that....
Quoting 1311. HimacaneBrees:



What are "corn waffles"? Is that cornbread from a waffle maker? Throw in a little chicken fried venison with all of that and I'm on my way!!!!


That caught my eye as well. I've never been a fan of waffles, but I loooove cornbread. Especially when it's really moist, with whole/partial kernels. Mmmm mmmm! If that's what she's talking about, I'd consider giving waffles another try :P
1326. LargoFl
HMM ECMF model has 30-35 mph winds across central florida tues-wens..add to that very heavy rains..
Quoting 1325. LAbonbon:


That caught my eye as well. I've never been a fan of waffles, but I loooove cornbread. Especially when it's really moist, with whole/partial kernels. Mmmm mmmm! If that's what she's talking about, I'd consider giving waffles another try :P



Yep. Also with the whole kernel corn put some sauteed onions, jalapenos, cheese, and some ground beef in with it. Makes for a fine meal.
Quoting 1299. MAweatherboy1:
What a storm. Probably at or near Cat 5 intensity based off satellite estimates. The relative regularity with which the West Pacific can produce storms like this is scary.



It'll probably perform an EWRC at some point starting within the next 24 hours, probably sooner, due to the rather tight inner core shown by microwave imagery. Hopefully that will weaken it some.
Now why can't we have storms like that in the Atlantic...
1331. SLU
Humberto's second coming was a complete bust.

The WPAC never seems to disappoint. Winds are easily near 140kts.

1333. LargoFl
7-day for the tampa bay area.................
1334. Torito
Usagi:

1335. LargoFl
Good for you Texas..you NEED this...............
Looks like i better start building my ark here in Clearwater looking at the latest model runs!
1337. Torito
My opinion of the 2013 hurricane season sometimes...

Quoting 1333. LargoFl:
7-day for the tampa bay area.................



Those weekend rain chances may be adjusted in the upcoming days!!!
1339. LargoFl
Quoting 1338. MRCYCLOGENESIS:



Those weekend rain chances may be adjusted in the upcoming days!!!
yes im thinking the same thing too.
1340. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU SEP 19 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION HUMBERTO...LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WELL TO
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
NEAR THE COAST OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND A
HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY SPREAD HEAVY RAIN
OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MEXICO AND COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS ALREADY IMPACTED
BY TORRENTIAL RAIN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS
AND BERMUDA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH. ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM IN THIS
AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM COULD ACQUIRE
SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
1341. barbamz

The circulation in the BOC is now very prominent in the loop of TPW (Total precipital water). Click to enlarge.

Still, WPAC with Usagi and the next one behind is quite another league:
1342. LargoFl
Quoting 1336. MRCYCLOGENESIS:
Looks like i better start building my ark here in Clearwater looking at the latest model runs!
yes i remember the gfs precip run from oh several days ago where it was dropping almost a foot of rain in some area's of central florida..hope that doesnt come true.
1343. MahFL
The shear has gone down quite a bit in the Bay of Campeche.
Wow.

2013SEP19 103200 7.4 884.7 +1.9 152.0 7.4 7.5 7.5 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 3.97 -80.95 EYE 19 IR 71.3 18.08 -127.44 COMBO MTSAT2 29.2
1345. LargoFl
1346. LargoFl
I just hope that ECMF model for the 30-35 mph winds doesnt happen..we get 6-8 inches of rain and get those winds..i worry about the tree's in that soaking wet ground....next week might get interesting around here.
Good morning all...Finally a morning without rain in Lake Worth/West Palm...

1349. LargoFl
Nam for sunday...........
I just realized we've had 2 storms form in the Caribbean, with only one other one spendidng time there (Chantal)
Only part of the Atlantic (out of the 3 main parts. GOM, Atl, Car.) to not have a hurricane...
Quoting 1346. LargoFl:
I just hope that ECMF model for the 30-35 mph winds doesnt happen..we get 6-8 inches of rain and get those winds..i worry about the tree's in that soaking wet ground....next week might get interesting around here.




Interesting meaning ugly!
Good morning from soggy Fort Myers FL. My 4 day rainfall total stands at 6.17" and more is expected today. And next week it will be worse... much worse
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MANUEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
500 AM PDT THU SEP 19 2013

...MANUEL MEANDERING NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 108.1W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NW OF ALTATA MEXICO
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
Holy crap.

1355. LargoFl
Quoting 1352. FtMyersgal:
Good morning from soggy Fort Myers FL. My 4 day rainfall total stands at 6.17" and more is expected today. And next week it will be worse... much worse
yes im afraid next week may make some records fall..we'll see.
1356. LargoFl
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM
INTO THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH THIS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO PROVIDE
POSSIBLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE 5 INCHES POSSIBLE WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING OF ROADS.

THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT FOR GULF FACING BEACHES
CONTINUING ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW AROUND THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE ALONG GULF FACING BEACHES FRIDAY ALSO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.


$$
1357. WxLogic
Good Morning...
From the Miami NWS Disco...

THE NICER WEATHER IS SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AN
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
EASTERN SEA BOARD. OUT AHEAD OF THIS...SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH...BRINGING A SURGE OF MOISTURE BACK INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A
WEAKER LOW LEVEL/SURFACE REFLECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND
THUS A WEAKER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE
ECMWF IS NOW STRONGER THAN THE GFS WITH THE BAROCLINIC SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES...AND DRAWS
THE MOISTURE FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST.
REGARDLESS...SINCE THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND KEEP IT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE FOCUS FOR STORMS MAY BE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND
NORTH OR CENTRAL FLORIDA. WITH NO FOCUS FOR RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER POSSIBLY LIMITING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE HEAVIEST RAINS MAY
ACTUALLY FALL OVER THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AS SPEED/COASTAL
CONVERGENCE SETS UP. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT THIS AS
WELL. SO RAINFALL CHANCES WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE FORECAST IS UNCLEAR BEYOND THAT POINT...BUT RAINFALL
CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
1359. SLU
That's right WPAC, show the Atlantic how to get it done.





1360. LargoFl
Quoting 1358. GeoffreyWPB:
From the Miami NWS Disco...

THE NICER WEATHER IS SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AN
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
EASTERN SEA BOARD. OUT AHEAD OF THIS...SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH...BRINGING A SURGE OF MOISTURE BACK INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A
WEAKER LOW LEVEL/SURFACE REFLECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND
THUS A WEAKER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE
ECMWF IS NOW STRONGER THAN THE GFS WITH THE BAROCLINIC SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES...AND DRAWS
THE MOISTURE FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST.
REGARDLESS...SINCE THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND KEEP IT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE FOCUS FOR STORMS MAY BE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND
NORTH OR CENTRAL FLORIDA. WITH NO FOCUS FOR RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER POSSIBLY LIMITING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE HEAVIEST RAINS MAY
ACTUALLY FALL OVER THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AS SPEED/COASTAL
CONVERGENCE SETS UP. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT THIS AS
WELL. SO RAINFALL CHANCES WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE FORECAST IS UNCLEAR BEYOND THAT POINT...BUT RAINFALL
CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
yeah so they are now thinking central florida for the heavy stuff..
Quoting 1327. HimacaneBrees:



Yep. Also with the whole kernel corn put some sauteed onions, jalapenos, cheese, and some ground beef in with it. Makes for a fine meal.
Good morning LSU. Is there still a 70% chance of rain for the kickoff on Saturday night in Baton Rouge?
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
319 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERABLY MORE NOCTURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS
BEING NOTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS
EARLY THIS MORNING WHEN COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
WAS THE RESULT OF A DEEPENING MOISTURE PROFILE AND THE CONTINUED
WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE GULF COAST REGION. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
DRAWS DEEP MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF AND EVENTUALLY PUSHES
AN ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
SOME LOCATIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH 2.25 INCHES. RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO
AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BEFORE ENDING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY STALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN U.S. NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS.

IN THE TROPICS...THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST
GULF IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE SOME TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SLOWLY TAKE THIS
SYSTEM WEST NORTHWEST TOWARD MEXICO. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE
MODELS WANT TO DEVELOP A BAROCLINIC LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GULF AND MOVE IT EAST NORTHEAST LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION. SO FAR...RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO THE NEW
ORLEANS TERMINALS...THOUGH ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS LATER
TODAY. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE MOST LIKELY TIMING OF
CONVECTION. 95

&&

.MARINE...
TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW AND ROUGH SEAS THROUGH TODAY. HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY...WITH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES BEING EXTENDED THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR MOST AREAS.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE
WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THIS BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
AREA AND THE GRADIENT EASES...THOUGH THEY MAY STRENGTHEN AGAIN
BEHIND THE FRONT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT MOVES.

THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SWELLS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...ENHANCING WAVE HEIGHTS. WITH TIDES STILL RUNNING 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
17W USAGI 130919 1200 18.2N 127.2E WPAC 140 918

Usagi is the strongest storm of the WPAC season so far and the deepest, beating Soulik and Utor's depth of 925mb. With winds at 140kts and more time to strengthen, Usagi could reach a peak of 150kts or more! Very impressive intensification. I thought it would be a low end cat 4 when I came back to check, but it's a very beautiful cat 5 instead!
1364. ncstorm
lol..DOOM!!!!



In 60 hours, Usagi as gone from a 1002mb 30kt (35mph) depression to a 918mb, 140kt (160mph) Category 5 Super Typhoon. A decrease of 84mb in pressure and and increase of 110kts (125mph) in wind speed. Which is roughly a decrease of 1.4mb/hour and an increase of 1.8kts/hour (or 2.1mph/hour).
Quoting 1358. GeoffreyWPB:
From the Miami NWS Disco...

THE NICER WEATHER IS SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AN
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
EASTERN SEA BOARD. OUT AHEAD OF THIS...SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH...BRINGING A SURGE OF MOISTURE BACK INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A
WEAKER LOW LEVEL/SURFACE REFLECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND
THUS A WEAKER COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE
ECMWF IS NOW STRONGER THAN THE GFS WITH THE BAROCLINIC SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES...AND DRAWS
THE MOISTURE FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST.
REGARDLESS...SINCE THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND KEEP IT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE FOCUS FOR STORMS MAY BE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND
NORTH OR CENTRAL FLORIDA. WITH NO FOCUS FOR RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER POSSIBLY LIMITING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE HEAVIEST RAINS MAY
ACTUALLY FALL OVER THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AS SPEED/COASTAL
CONVERGENCE SETS UP. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT THIS AS
WELL. SO RAINFALL CHANCES WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE FORECAST IS UNCLEAR BEYOND THAT POINT...BUT RAINFALL
CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
So the Naples forecast is for hot and humid with day-long overcast, and a chance of passing showers at night? Gee. I feel so lucky... ;-)
1367. ncstorm
12z CMC









Last 50 days (7 weeks) Total Precipitation 0.20" during the month of August and through today of September.





It's worse here year locally than it was all of last season.
1369. ncstorm
NWS, Wilmington, NC seems a little concerned about what could happen, very lengthy discussion

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN THE
EXTENDED...BUT IT IS APPEARING MORE LIKELY THAT A PERIOD OF VERY
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS SUN-TUE.

PERIOD STARTS WITH A COLD FRONT ENCROACHING ON THE WESTERN CWA. THE
EXACT PROGRESSION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS VERY MUCH IN
QUESTION...BECAUSE AS IT TRIES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA...A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG IT...POSSIBLY KEEPING IT
FROM DROPPING TOO FAR SOUTHEAST. NO MATTER HOW FAR THIS FRONT
PROGRESSES...SURFACE CONVERGENCE INTO A COLUMN WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS/TSTMS SUNDAY...AND HIGH-CHC POP
REMAINS...INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.

THEREAFTER THE EXTENDED IS...TO BE BLUNT...A MESS. TROPICAL MOISTURE
ORGANIZING IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS WKND WILL POSSIBLY BECOME THE
NEXT NAMED SYSTEM.
..AND IS THEN PROGGED TO MEANDER IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY THAT DIVING UPPER
TROUGH WILL CAPTURE THIS MOISTURE AND SLING IT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE IS BASICALLY NO AGREEMENT IN
TIMING...STRENGTH...OR PLACEMENT OF THIS SURFACE LOW AS IT TRACKS
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY NEXT WEEK. GFS HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE
PLACE WITH ITS EVOLUTION...THUS PROVIDING LITTLE INSIGHT/HELP TO THE
FORECAST. THE ECMWF HAS A SINGLE CONSOLIDATED LOW TRACKING EAST OF
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...AND HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT. THE
ENSEMBLES DO NOT PROVIDE A LOT OF HELP EITHER. THIS CREATES LOWERED
CONFIDENCE...BUT WE CAN GLEAN A FEW DETAILS FOR NEXT WEEK FROM WHAT
IS AVAILABLE...AND ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE EXCESSIVE TO DISCUSS DETAILS
ON D5/D6 IN A LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST...BELIEVE IT IS IMPORTANT TO
EXPLAIN WHY UNCERTAINTY EXISTS.

WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE...AND COPIOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
THE GOM...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT RAINFALL WILL IMPINGE UPON THE
AREA NEXT WEEK. WITH A LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE COAST TAPPING
TROPICAL MOISTURE...WE WOULD EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.
HOWEVER...PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE ONLY TO AROUND 1.75
INCHES...ABOUT THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-SEPTEMBER. THE 700MB
TROUGH AXIS MOVES ALMOST OVERHEAD...NOT IDEAL FOR AN OPEN GULF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WHILE A 100KT 200MB JET STREAK DEVELOPS DUE
NORTH OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...AND 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
VECTORS POINT TO JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST. THESE PARAMETERS SUGGEST
THAT THE BEST RAINFALL WOULD BE FOCUSED JUST EAST OF THE
AREA...OVER THE OCEAN...SUPPORTING THE ECMWF TRACK. HOWEVER...THE
NAO (NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION) IS FORECAST TO BECOME
SIGNIFICANTLY NEGATIVE NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A MORE
AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN AND HENCE A SLOWER/FURTHER WEST LOW
CENTER. AN ADDITIONAL CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE WHAT HAPPENS IF THE
SYSTEM IN THE GOM/BAY OF CAMPECHE DEVELOPS INTO A STRONGER
TROPICAL SYSTEM...CREATING A SECONDARY SUBSIDENT RIDGE ALOFT. THAT
WILL THROW ANOTHER "WRENCH" INTO THE FLOW...CAUSING AN EVEN MORE
COMPLEX PATTERN.


SO...WITH ALL THIS IN PLACE...IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE THAT
WET WEATHER WILL IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL VERY
UNSURE EXACTLY HOW SIGNIFICANT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE.
INHERITED FORECAST HAS MDT-CHC POP MONDAY...FALLING OFF INTO
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP MONDAY AS-IS...BUT INCREASE POP TUESDAY FOR THE
POTENTIAL SLOWER SYSTEM. HIGHEST POP WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG THE
COAST WHERE PARAMETERS AND WPC SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR.

TEMPS SUN-TUE WILL BE INHIBITED BY CLOUDS...RAIN...AND POTENTIALLY
GUSTY N/NE WINDS...SO EXPECT HIGHS BELOW CLIMO WITH LOWS JUST ABOVE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE
MID-WEEK...ALLOWING FOR MORE SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY BUT TEMPS REMAINING
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
Saved loop of SuperTyphoon Usagi. When will the Atlantic have one of these again?

Link
1371. Doss2k
Well Usagi sure has given us a nice looking storm at least. Hopefully it will drop some of its strength before making landfall though.
Usagi easily this year's most intense storm, or will be by the time it's all said and done. Taiwan looks to be in the line of fire, with mainland China there after. Although Usagi has been bouncing around the last few days as it moves westward for the most part.



Quoting 1370. Tropicsweatherpr:
Saved loop of SuperTyphoon Usagi. When will the Atlantic have one of these again?

Link


Not this year.
Little bit of a change with the Melbourne discussion regarding the Gulf.
"Sun-Wed...uncertainty/low confidence continues in this period with medium range models showing subtle differences. The previously mentioned shortwave trough will send energy across the Florida Peninsula sun/Mon. The frontal boundary over the deep south will sag
slowly into the peninsula becoming quasi-stationary through much of this time allowing for very deep tropical moisture to pool across the area into the middle of next week. Timing...strength and exact placement of surface/upper air features remains inconsistent at this
time. Higher confidence exists in that rain chances will be elevated from normal during this time. The potential for heavy rainfall across east central Florida will exist. This additional moisture may keep conditions cloudy and afternoon highs below what is presently
forecast. Overnight lows should remain mild and above climatology.

With potential tropical development over the Bay of Campeche will continue to watch for low pressure development over the western Gulf in vicinity of the decaying frontal boundary."
Quoting 1366. Neapolitan:
So the Naples forecast is for hot and humid with day-long overcast, and a chance of passing showers at night? Gee. I feel so lucky... ;-)


NOW the name becomes clear! I sort of assumed you were showing family pride, and that your family originated in Napoli...

That's what I get for drawing conclusions from handles :)
Latest HWRF run says... BOC TRASH!

1377. ncstorm
1378. ncstorm
1379. SLU
Quoting 1370. Tropicsweatherpr:
Saved loop of SuperTyphoon Usagi. When will the Atlantic have one of these again?

Link


2015 ... next year will likely be an El Nino bust.
Quoting 1372. ILwthrfan:
Usagi easily this year's most intense storm, or will be by the time it's all said and done. Taiwan looks to be in the line of fire, with mainland China there after. Although Usagi has been bouncing around the last few days as it moves westward for the most part.





The heavy populated city of Hong Kong is in the track and if no deviation occurs it may cause big problems there.
Quoting 1321. HimacaneBrees:
Too many hurricanes - GW to blame


Nobody said that.

Lack of hurricanes - GW to blame


No one said that either, however that is the eventual expected result by the end of the century.

Ah well, at least it's not being blamed on the President.


Depends on your source of news. Certain organizations blame the president for everything, even for things that don't exist. :)
Quoting 1368. ILwthrfan:
Last 50 days (7 weeks) Total Precipitation 0.20" during the month of August and through today of September.





It's worse here year locally than it was all of last season.


What part of IL are you in? Looks like part of IL will be getting some rain in the immediate future. Probably not enough, though...



Quoting 1379. SLU:


2015 ... next year will likely be an El Nino bust.


Well,that is if El Nino shows up because if in 14 it doesn.t ,then it would be in 16.
So is 95L still expected to be an impact in the Gulf.
Quoting 1379. SLU:


2015 ... next year will likely be an El Nino bust.


An El Ninio would still be better than this.
Quoting 1384. weatherman994:
So is 95L still expected to be an impact in the Gulf.


Looks more like it will be another piece of disorganized garbage.
Quoting 1372. ILwthrfan:
Usagi easily this year's most intense storm, or will be by the time it's all said and done. Taiwan looks to be in the line of fire, with mainland China there after. Although Usagi has been bouncing around the last few days as it moves westward for the most part.





Utor's peak strength wasn't recorded because the intensity updates didn't occur during the time it reached it. I believe at one point Utor's Dvorak number indicated a strength of 161kts, although it only stayed like that briefly before it started an eyewall replacement cycle.

Hopefully Usagi won't cause much damage or take any lives, but considering it's going to effect Tawain and China as a strong system, and the Phillipes will be affected by its outer rains/winds, it might become the deadliest and costliest storm so far.
1388. Murko
Quoting 1307. trunkmonkey:
DOH!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Top climate scientists admit global warming forecasts were wrong!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Typical Daily Fail and Rush Limbaugh nonsense.

What the IPCC said in 2007 was that warming between 1990 and 2005 had been measured at 0.2°C (0.36°F) per decade. In a different section, it reported that warming over a longer period -- the last 50 years -- was about 0.13°C (0.23°F) per decade. This makes sense since, as we know climate change is ramping up more quickly of late. If the new assessment really says we've been warming at 0.12°C (0.22°F) per decade since 1951, it will mean the IPCC was almost exactly right. As a scientist misquoted in the article noted, an accurate headline would have been "Global warming is just 92 percent of what we said it was" (rather than "Global warming is just HALF what we said," as the story was titled before a recent edit). Other scientists deemed the Daily Mail's claims "incorrect" and emphasized that the report's findings have not been finalized.
1386. FunnelVortex this season is a bust nothin can get going.
Quoting 1385. FunnelVortex:


An El Ninio would still be better than this.
Are you sure 2009 and 2006 were so boring I almost die of borement.2009 though had Fred and Bill the only to see of those season.2006 Gordon and Helene were nothing special.
Quoting 1390. allancalderini:
Are you sure 2009 and 2006 were so boring I almost die of borement.2009 though had Fred and Bill the only to see of those season.2006 Gordon and Helene were nothing special.


At least it had a couple impressive storms. So far we only had Humberto. And it was mediocre.
big hurricane with 980 mb
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Once again it is NOT BOC Trash!!! Get over it. Also u can't be sure if 2014 is an el nino season. It can sometimes be a trick for some of you that it'll be an above year. Just watch and see folks. Remember to always be patient.
Quoting 1388. Murko:


Typical Daily Fail and Rush Limbaugh nonsense.

What the IPCC said in 2007 was that warming between 1990 and 2005 had been measured at 0.2°C (0.36°F) per decade. In a different section, it reported that warming over a longer period -- the last 50 years -- was about 0.13°C (0.23°F) per decade. This makes sense since, as we know climate change is ramping up more quickly of late. If the new assessment really says we've been warming at 0.12°C (0.22°F) per decade since 1951, it will mean the IPCC was almost exactly right. As a scientist misquoted in the article noted, an accurate headline would have been "Global warming is just 92 percent of what we said it was" (rather than "Global warming is just HALF what we said," as the story was titled before a recent edit). Other scientists deemed the Daily Mail's claims "incorrect" and emphasized that the report's findings have not been finalized.


Dont get side tracked. Climate change is a fact and has existed since the planet formed. What is to be debated is whether human beings can destroy the planet thru the use of natural resources.
Quoting 1387. Envoirment:


Utor's peak strength wasn't recorded because the intensity updates didn't occur during the time it reached it. I believe at one point Utor's Dvorak number indicated a strength of 161kts, although it only stayed like that briefly before it started an eyewall replacement cycle.

Hopefully Usagi won't cause much damage or take any lives, but considering it's going to effect Tawain and China as a strong system, and the Phillipes will be affected by its outer rains/winds, it might become the deadliest and costliest storm so far.


Thanks, I was wondering if what I posted was right, should have looked it up.



Although Usagi has a more impressive structure I believe. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if this maxed out somewhere around 180 knots. It has that look. What our the T #'s for Usagi at the moment?
1397. MahFL
Looks to me like 95L is heading back onshore, in MX.
Quoting 1381. Xyrus2000:


Nobody said that.

Lack of hurricanes - GW to blame


No one said that either, however that is the eventual expected result by the end of the century.

Ah well, at least it's not being blamed on the President.


Depends on your source of news. Certain organizations blame the president for everything, even for things that don't exist. :)



Really? I'm pretty sure a lot of global warming scientists say there will be more hurricanes... Or have said that in the past
1399. trey33
Does anyone have a weekend forecast for Pensacola? Thanks.