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Sunshine Aids Colorado Evacuations; 38 Dead in Mexico From Manuel and Ingrid

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:42 PM GMT on September 17, 2013

After nine consecutive days with rain, skies have finally cleared over flood-ravaged Boulder, Colorado. Flooding from the past week's rains have killed at least seven, destroyed over 1,500 homes, damaged 18,000 homes, and caused close to $1 billion in damage, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield. Over 70 bridges have been damaged or destroyed, and hundreds of roads damaged, including major sections of U.S. Highways 34, 36 and 72. Clear skies are forecast for the remainder of the week, which will allow rescue helicopters to safely operate to evacuate the hundreds of people still trapped in mountain towns cut off by the rockslides, collapsed bridges, and destroyed roads. The rains that fell early Monday morning in Boulder officially put the city over its all-time annual precipitation record with three and a half months left in the year. Boulder has been deluged with 30.13" so far this year; the previous record was 29.93", set in 1995.


Figure 1. A raging waterfall destroys a bridge along Highway 34 east of Estes Park, Colorado, on September 15, 2013. (AP Photo/Colorado Heli-Ops, Dennis Pierce)


Figure 2. Damage to Highway 34 along the Big Thompson River, on the road to Estes Park, Colorado. Image credit: Colorado National Guard.


Figure 3. A field of parked cars and trucks sits partially submerged near Greeley, Colorado, Saturday, Sept. 14, 2013, as debris-filled rivers flooded into towns and farms miles from the Rockies (AP Photo/John Wark).

A 1-in-1,000 year flood and rainfall event
The Colorado Emergency Management Agency reported that “Some areas in Larimer County experienced a 100-year flood and other areas experienced a 1,000-year flood. It all depends on where the heaviest rain fell. Areas with more extensive damage experienced the 1,000 year flooding.” The U.S. Geological Survey office in Colorado called the flood of Boulder Creek in the city of Boulder as at least a 1-in-100-year event. In the towns of Lyons and Estes Park, officials separately described the current event in each area as a 1-in-500-year flood. According to Bob Henson of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, 17.16" of rain fell in the past week in Boulder. Using about a century of precipitation records, NOAA has constructed a Precipitation Frequency Data Server, which estimates how often we might expect to see extreme rainfall events recur. For Boulder, a 5.87" rain event in one week has an average recurrence interval of once every 1,000 years. The city received almost triple that amount of rain over the past week--a truly extreme and rare weather event.

As extreme as the 2013 Colorado flood was, there are two flood events in Colorado history that compare. One was the June 1965 flood that hit the Colorado Front Range, causing $4 billion in damage (adjusted for inflation.) Colorado's deadliest flood on record was the Big Thompson Flood of 1976, which killed 145 people between Estes Park and Loveland. More than 12" of rain fell in just three hours, causing a flood rated at between a 500-year and 1,000-year event.


Figure 4. The rains that fell in a 24-hour period ending at 12 pm MDT September 13, 2013 over regions near Boulder, Colorado were the type of rains with a 0.2% chance of falling in a particular year, or once every 500 years (purple colors), according to MetStat, Inc. (http://www.metstat.com.) MetStat computed the recurrence interval statistics based on gauge-adjusted radar precipitation and frequency estimates from NOAA Atlas 14 Volume 8, published in 2013 (http://dipper.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/.) MetStat does not supply their precipitation recurrence interval forecasts or premium analysis products for free, but anyone can monitor the real-time analysis (observed) at: http://metstat.com/solutions/extreme-precipitation-index-analysis/

Colorado's rains set to cause record flooding in Nebraska
Much of the water from the past week's record rains in Colorado have funneled into the South Platte River, which flows eastwards in Nebraska. A 10 - 11' high flood crest is headed downriver, and is setting all-time flood height records as it heads east. By Wednesday night, the crest will reach western Nebraska at Roscoe, where the flood waters may cover Interstate 80, unless sandbagging efforts to protect the highway are done. Interstate 80 is one of the two most heavily traveled transcontinental highways in the United States.


Figure 5. Observed and predicted flood heights on the South Platte River in Western Nebraska, where an all-time record flood is expected on Wednesday. Records at this gauge go back 30 years. Image credit: NOAA/

Links
Bob Henson of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder summarizes the great flood.

Wunderblogger Dr. Ricky Rood has a home in Boulder, and discusses his take on the flood.

Colorado’s ‘Biblical’ Flood in Line with Climate Trends by Andrew Freedman of Climate Central.

Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt discusses how this year's flood compares to previous Colorado floods in his latest post.

A map of Boulder flood zones and detailed history of previous floods in the area may be found here.


Video 1. A slow-motion mudslide pours into Boulder Creek, Colorado on September 14, 2013.

Ingrid and Manuel kill 38 in Mexico; Invest 95L headed for Bay of Campeche
Flooding from the combined one-two punch of Hurricane Ingrid on the Atlantic coast and Tropical Storm Manuel on the Pacific coast is being blamed for the deaths of at least 38 people in Mexico, according to AP. The two storms hit Mexico nearly simultaneously on Monday, packing sustained winds of 65 - 70 mph and torrential rains. Hardest hit was the Acapulco region on Mexico's Pacific coast, where the airport is closed, many roads flooded and blocked, and much of the city without water or power.

The waterlogged Gulf Coast of Mexico has yet another tropical rain-making system to worry about this week. An area of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) over the Yucatan Peninsula will emerge into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Wednesday. Belize radar and satellite loops show that 95L already has a pronounced spin and a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is low and is expected to stay low over the next five days. There is some dry air over the Bay of Campeche, but I doubt this will be an impediment to development, given the low wind shear. NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 30% and 5-day odds of 50% in their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook. The disturbance is likely to stay trapped in the Bay of Campeche and take a slow west-northwest path towards the same region of coast affected by Hurricane Ingrid. On Saturday, a cold front is expected to push southeastwards over the Gulf of Mexico, and moisture from 95L will likely stream northeastwards along the cold front over much of the U.S. Gulf Coast, bringing heavy rains on Saturday and Sunday. A non-tropical low pressure system could form along this front and move northeastwards into the Florida Gulf Coast, bringing heavy rains to the Southeast U.S. on Sunday and Monday.

Jeff Masters
Lefthand Creek Flood
Lefthand Creek Flood
Aftermath
Day 4
Day 4
Clear Creek is normally a small clear creek that runs from Golden to Denver. Floods have changed it's look.
Lefthand Creek Flood - Aftermath
Lefthand Creek Flood - Aftermath
Wash out

Flood Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Those of us here should be in READINESS MODE, too...because very soon...we will have to endure the "Springer Chant" from many trolls! :)

I am going to be in Miami on September 23.
Quoting 1499. PanhandleChuck:
Whoot! Blog should hit 56000 comments per minute by this afternoon, and no GW malarkey!

Not so fast Chuck. Post 1483 plussed by Neapolitan is already trying to tie in these recent storms to GW. It ain't going away!! LOL
Quoting 1501. CycloneOz:
Those of here should be in READINESS MODE, too...because very soon...you will have to endure the "Springer Chant" from many trolls! :)


What about the high in the Gulf. Wouldn't that keep this westward into Mexico or extreme southern Texas?
1504. VR46L
Just spied this

"Classique Comma!"

Gosh I knew it was a bad idea to plan a family reunion in the Smokeys for Christmas day. Last time I did that we got hit by Katrina. I should spare you all the hassle and cancel.
Looks like 95L is NOT going to be the culprit this weekend. 95L is going to be in the Gulf until next week. There is deep tropical moisture that will be drawn NE into the trough sweeping across the eastern US late this weekend. There will most likely be a baroclinic/cold core low that develops somewhere along the front as it stalls out late Sunday along the Gulf Coast near the big bend of Florida. The intensity guidance everyone is looking at is for 95L that will be near the Yucatan Peninsula for several days. There are going to be 2 systems. The one I just spoke of that the 0 Z GFS and 0 Z Euro are almost identical on now and then 95L that will still be left behind somewhere inthe western Gulf. This will NOT be a hurricane or tropical system for Florida.
Quoting 1501. CycloneOz:
Those of us here should be in READINESS MODE, too...because very soon...you will have to endure the "Springer Chant" from many trolls! :)



What is "Springer Chant?"
Quoting 1500. fmbill:


I have noticed over the years that people are more apt to take a storm serious if it is called a "strong tropical storm" vs. a "weak hurricane." It may be symantics, but history has shown that anything with a name should always be considered "intense."


We certainly learned our lesson over TS Allison. That was the worst ever flood wise...
Usagi looking very good! It's eye cleared out in the last frame a bit:



Definitely looking like the next Soulik/Utor type storm in the WPAC.
1510. FOREX
Quoting 1506. Chucktown:
Looks like 95L is NOT going to be the culprit this weekend. 95L is going to be in the Gulf until next week. There is deep tropical moisture that will be drawn NE into the trough sweeping across the eastern US late this weekend. There will most likely be a baroclinic/cold core low that develops somewhere along the front as it stalls out late Sunday along the Gulf Coast near the big bend of Florida. The intensity guidance everyone is looking at is for 95L that will be near the Yucatan Peninsula for several days. There are going to be 2 systems. The one I just spoke of that the 0 Z GFS and 0 Z Euro are almost identical on now and then 95L that will still be left behind somewhere inthe western Gulf. This will NOT be a hurricane or tropical system for Florida.


I hope you're right.
1511. K8eCane
Quoting 1506. Chucktown:
Looks like 95L is NOT going to be the culprit this weekend. 95L is going to be in the Gulf until next week. There is deep tropical moisture that will be drawn NE into the trough sweeping across the eastern US late this weekend. There will most likely be a baroclinic/cold core low that develops somewhere along the front as it stalls out late Sunday along the Gulf Coast near the big bend of Florida. The intensity guidance everyone is looking at is for 95L that will be near the Yucatan Peninsula for several days. There are going to be 2 systems. The one I just spoke of that the 0 Z GFS and 0 Z Euro are almost identical on now and then 95L that will still be left behind somewhere inthe western Gulf. This will NOT be a hurricane or tropical system for Florida.



since when are there absolutes in weather forecasting?
Quoting 1507. FunnelVortex:


What is "Springer Chant?"


The "Springer Chant" is:

JERRY - JERRY - JERRY!
1513. Patrap
Quoting 1507. FunnelVortex:


What is "Springer Chant?"


Changing clothes in a Car Wash Live on UStream I think,...

; )
1514. K8eCane
It irks me when forecasters say something WILL or WONT. You don't know that
1515. LargoFl
1516. Torito
Looking good manuel.

Quoting 1513. Patrap:


Changing clothes in a Car Wash Live on UStream I think,...

; )


Now that was just mean. Hurricane Earl was a very successful 1st ever live stream during a hurricane event.
1518. Patrap
Quoting 1506. Chucktown:
Looks like 95L is NOT going to be the culprit this weekend. 95L is going to be in the Gulf until next week. There is deep tropical moisture that will be drawn NE into the trough sweeping across the eastern US late this weekend. There will most likely be a baroclinic/cold core low that develops somewhere along the front as it stalls out late Sunday along the Gulf Coast near the big bend of Florida. The intensity guidance everyone is looking at is for 95L that will be near the Yucatan Peninsula for several days. There are going to be 2 systems. The one I just spoke of that the 0 Z GFS and 0 Z Euro are almost identical on now and then 95L that will still be left behind somewhere inthe western Gulf. This will NOT be a hurricane or tropical system for Florida.
Thank you for being the voice of reason, it's a scary situation for us in Florida, thank goodness we'll have cycloneoz here in a few days.
1520. 7544
Quoting 1459. LargoFl:
GFS is consistant but way too early to believe it..


oooo welcome back largo nice to see u again ;)
Quoting 1503. SouthernIllinois:

Not so fast Chuck. Post 1483 plussed by Neapolitan is already trying to tie in these recent storms to GW. It ain't going away!! LOL

What about the high in the Gulf. Wouldn't that keep this westward into Mexico or extreme southern Texas?


Had a power outage last night at work, no storms in the area . I had a headache as well. Both caused by GW!

In all seriousness, this is the first storm that we need to be concerned with this year in the Panhandle.
1522. GetReal
Weather History for Merida, Mexico



Impressive winds and a pressure of 29.75 inches.... 95l is probably a TD over the Yucatan already.
Quoting 1519. Llamaluvr:
Thank you for being the voice of reason, it's a scary situation for us in Florida, thank goodness we'll have cycloneoz here in a few days.


You will never believe why I am in Miami...it is beyond stupid! :)
1524. icmoore
Quoting 1489. FlyingScotsman:


Since when did borderline Cat. 1 qualify as an "intense storm"? Only in 2013, lol.


Well, a Cat 1 would be major to me but I live on a barrier island in a flood zone.
1525. Patrap
Quoting 1506. Chucktown:
Looks like 95L is NOT going to be the culprit this weekend. 95L is going to be in the Gulf until next week. There is deep tropical moisture that will be drawn NE into the trough sweeping across the eastern US late this weekend. There will most likely be a baroclinic/cold core low that develops somewhere along the front as it stalls out late Sunday along the Gulf Coast near the big bend of Florida. The intensity guidance everyone is looking at is for 95L that will be near the Yucatan Peninsula for several days. There are going to be 2 systems. The one I just spoke of that the 0 Z GFS and 0 Z Euro are almost identical on now and then 95L that will still be left behind somewhere inthe western Gulf. This will NOT be a hurricane or tropical system for Florida.


Really? Well the TVCN has also joined the trip ENE.

1527. Torito
Dat cold front is entering montana now.

Here is 0Z GFS and 0 Z Euro at 120 Hours. Very similiar.

Link

Link
Quoting 1523. CycloneOz:


You will never believe why I am in Miami...it is beyond stupid! :)


you had to get some Shorty's ribs? Frankie's Pizza? Ice cream at the Purple Cow? the suspense is killing me Oz... :)
Quoting 1528. Chucktown:
Here is 0Z GFS and 0 Z Euro at 120 Hours. Very similiar.

Link

Link


I see what you are saying and I hope your not right as that would be worse for FL and if that verifies then us in FL will need an ARK.
Quoting 1523. CycloneOz:


You will never believe why I am in Miami...it is beyond stupid! :)
Ok, I have to know... what brings you to Miami?
if you wishcast enough eventually it will come true. then you got problems
Quoting 1526. StormTrackerScott:


Really? Well the TVCN has also joined the trip ENE.



Here, you live in Orlando, Melbourne disco is thinking two systems as well.

Link
Quoting 1503. SouthernIllinois:

Not so fast Chuck. Post 1483 plussed by Neapolitan is already trying to tie in these recent storms to GW. It ain't going away!! LOL

What about the high in the Gulf. Wouldn't that keep this westward into Mexico or extreme southern Texas?


At the time of the year, cold fronts are more robust and will pull storms to the east. Looks like a cold front will keep storms away from Texas this week...
Quoting 1528. Chucktown:
Here is 0Z GFS and 0 Z Euro at 120 Hours. Very similiar.

Link

Link


The best case sceanrio for FL is that this is a hurricane and gets scooted out of here because a weak system would continue to pump copious amounts of rain on FL.
Quoting 1533. Chucktown:


Here, you live in Orlando, Melbourne disco is thinking two systems as well.

Link



Your right both models show that to a degree then here is when you go wrong as the Euro then kicks 95L across S FL on day 8.

Quoting 1529. indianrivguy:


you had to get some Shorty's ribs? Frankie's Pizza? Ice cream at the Purple Cow? the suspense is killing me Oz... :)


I live in Ecuador now.

On Monday, I travel to Miami.

The reason?

My pension paperwork that I have here with me needs approval by the Ecuadorian consulate in Miami...because the pension originates in the USA.

To me, it is a stupid waste of money and other resources...but it is the rule and I cannot stay here unless I comply.

I will bring a hurricane with me...perhaps.

Anyway...they send you home here in Ecuador. It is locked-down here...unlike some countries I know of... ;)
Quoting 1506. Chucktown:
Looks like 95L is NOT going to be the culprit this weekend. 95L is going to be in the Gulf until next week. There is deep tropical moisture that will be drawn NE into the trough sweeping across the eastern US late this weekend. There will most likely be a baroclinic/cold core low that develops somewhere along the front as it stalls out late Sunday along the Gulf Coast near the big bend of Florida. The intensity guidance everyone is looking at is for 95L that will be near the Yucatan Peninsula for several days. There are going to be 2 systems. The one I just spoke of that the 0 Z GFS and 0 Z Euro are almost identical on now and then 95L that will still be left behind somewhere inthe western Gulf. This will NOT be a hurricane or tropical system for Florida.


Two of the better local mets said something similar last night about 2 systems. The first will be barcolonic in nature and the 2nd would be tropical. The difference is that neither said that this would or would not be a tropical system for Florida. Too early to tell.
Quoting 1530. StormTrackerScott:


I see what you are saying and I hope your not right as that would be worse for FL and if that verifies then us in FL will need an ARK.


Now, if the Euro verifies, going to be a significant severe weather event across Florida and much of the SE US. GFS, not so much, but there will still be a warm sector involved and still could be some severe weather.
1540. Patrap
Quoting 1523. CycloneOz:


You will never believe why I am in Miami...it is beyond stupid! :)



I know why.
Quoting 1506. Chucktown:
Looks like 95L is NOT going to be the culprit this weekend. 95L is going to be in the Gulf until next week. There is deep tropical moisture that will be drawn NE into the trough sweeping across the eastern US late this weekend. There will most likely be a baroclinic/cold core low that develops somewhere along the front as it stalls out late Sunday along the Gulf Coast near the big bend of Florida. The intensity guidance everyone is looking at is for 95L that will be near the Yucatan Peninsula for several days. There are going to be 2 systems. The one I just spoke of that the 0 Z GFS and 0 Z Euro are almost identical on now and then 95L that will still be left behind somewhere inthe western Gulf. This will NOT be a hurricane or tropical system for Florida.



Well, the powerball is at 400 million....would you mind giving up those numbers as well? Cause it does seem like you have a crystal ball....
1543. ncstorm
Quoting 1514. K8eCane:
It irks me when forecasters say something WILL or WONT. You don't know that


absolutely..and then when they are wrong, they deny saying it..
1544. will40
Quoting 1528. Chucktown:
Here is 0Z GFS and 0 Z Euro at 120 Hours. Very similiar.

Link

Link



you may need to look at 06z Gfs run.
1545. Patrap
Lordy, Banned from the USA eh?

I din't think St. Charles Parish was dat upset with yas during Isaac Oz.

; o
Quoting 1537. CycloneOz:


I live in Ecuador now.

On Monday, I travel to Miami.

The reason?

My pension paperwork that I have here with me needs approval by the Ecuadorian consulate in Miami...because the pension originates in the USA.

To me, it is a stupid waste of money and other resources...but it is the rule and I cannot stay here unless I comply.

I will bring a hurricane with me...perhaps.

Anyway...they send you home here in Ecuador. It is locked-down here...unlike some countries I know of... ;)
That is crazy, hope you enjoy your stay!
Quoting 1545. Patrap:
Lordy, Banned from the USA eh?

I din't think St. Charles Parish was dat upset with yas during Isaac Oz.

; o


My Isaac chase was my last official stream.

It had many classic man vs. man moments...in addition to man vs. nature.

Short story material...
1548. Guysgal
Terrible flooding in Acapulco Link
1549. ncstorm
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 AM EDT WED SEP 18 2013

VALID 12Z SAT SEP 21 2013 - 12Z WED SEP 25 2013

...PATTERN OVERVIEW...GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...SENSIBLE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

AN AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DUG INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST SAT EJECTS NEWD INTO ERN CANADA AND THE MARITIMES BY
MON...WITH A DEEP ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACK ACROSS ERN CANADA
ACTING TO FORCE A TRAILING FRONT AND COOLING POST-FRONTAL HIGH
PRESSURE DOWN THROUGH THE ERN/SRN/SERN US BEFORE STALLING. THIS
FRONT WILL POOL MOISTURE TO FUEL SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AS
POTENTIALLY AIDED BY DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH RECENT
TROPICAL SYSTEMS. MASS FIELD FORECAST SPREAD/UNCERTAINTY HOLDS
NEAR AVERAGE WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT HEAVY RAINFALL SPECIFICS ARE
LESS CLEAR DESPITE HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL OVER/UP FROM THE SRN/SERN
US. FORECAST SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER AS GUIDANCE REMAINS
QUITE VARIED WITH POTENTIAL GULF OF MEXICO DEVELOPMENT. PLEASE
REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM THE NHC FOR UPDATED INFO AS WARRANTED WITH
THE LATEST WPC SURFACE PROGS CURRENTLY HOLDING A LOW NEAR THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE INTO NEXT WEEK AS PER LATEST NHC COORDINATION.
Quoting 1538. clwstmchasr:


Two of the better local mets said something similar last night about 2 systems. The first will be barcolonic in nature and the 2nd would be tropical. The difference is that neither said that this would or would not be a tropical system for Florida. Too early to tell.


Tropical or not, rain and possibly severe weather will be the main concern with the first system. It's rare for the GFS and Euro to be that close, but it looks like they are both coming to this solution. 95L could be a different story, or whatever is left behind. Strong high pressure will be building down the east coast behind this weekend's front. The western Gulf coast and even Texas could be in mix late next week. Once again, check out 240 GFS. That "blob" in the Gulf is still 95L I believe. This is what yesterdays 12Z Euro was showing with a tropical system impacting the central Gulf coast near New Orleans.

Link
DOUG!

I can't come to Pensacola!
I'm noticing in the models that when they turn it NE, there is some major slow (days) movement in those tracks, so that tells me a stall more than anything in the GOM, if the stalled out washed out frontal boundary washes out, a ridge is bound to develop somewhere, will it form over the SE and push GOM system back west or will a trough come on down and push it out finally. That is the question.

Starting to pick up here;

PensacolaDoug and I worked through many hurricanes together...since 2004.

Both of us are here at Wunderground.com at this moment...

...that should put the fear of God into you...because we are here for that LOW.

Quoting 1544. will40:



you may need to look at 06z Gfs run.


I never look at 6 or 18 Z runs of the GFS. It uses outdated data. This is why Euro is only issued twice a day.
1556. hydrus
1557. Patrap
Published on Sep 18, 2013

NEWS Thousands stranded as heavy downpours flood Acapulco airport
A torrential three-day downpour has flooded Acapulco airport causing chaos and stranding some of the 40,000 tourists visiting Mexico's famous beach resort.

Eventually when the rains eased some flights were able to take off. Those getting away were leaving behind them hotels where food was in short supply and had to be rationed and cash machines failed to work due to power cuts.

For locals the suffering continued with long queues at supermarkets which had mainly empty shelves due to prior panic buying.

Thousands of people have had to seek safety in temporary shelters after homes were swept away or buried beneath landslides

Quoting 1551. CycloneOz:
DOUG!

I can't come to Pensacola!


But I am this weekend! Bringing my kids over to see my sister
G'morning from Central OK,

Here - hot today (90's ). Tomorrow into Thursday looks to be fun. Moisture pumped up from Mexico, combined with a cold front promises rain across most of the state, and a chance for severe storms. Woo hoo!

One lonely thunderstorm in OK made the news yesterday. It chose to collapse just as it was passing over the State Fairgrounds. Winds estimated to be 50-60 mph hit the fair, sent people scurrying, and put a few trees down on cars - played some games with the booths too.

Perhaps the most unfortunate report was for those people "taking shelter" from the storm in the Port-o-Johns which were blown over - Ewwww!

In the tropics, Manuel is getting its act together for his encore, Humberto is heading north, 95L is still provoking a raging debate in the blog regarding where (and what) is heading Florida's way.

Regardless, the rains in Mexico continue. :(

Have a good day, hope you and yours are doing well.

Quoting 1554. CycloneOz:
PensacolaDoug and I worked through many hurricanes together...since 2004.

Both of us are here at Wunderground.com at this moment...

...that should put the fear of God into you...because we are here for that LOW.



it does.. you and Cantore :)
Quoting 1554. CycloneOz:
PensacolaDoug and I worked through many hurricanes together...since 2004.

Both of us are here at Wunderground.com at this moment...

...that should put the fear of God into you...because we are here for that LOW.




Quoting 1465. LargoFl:
Local met is saying some area's in florida could recieve over 5 days..1 foot or more of rain,think about the lakes and streams and the flooding concerns...who knows IF that amount will come but if your in a flood prone area...think back april and may what happened,all that flooding..this will come in a few days not months whew...hope it goes somewhere else.


People glad you are back. :)
1563. hydrus
Quoting 1554. CycloneOz:
PensacolaDoug and I worked through many hurricanes together...since 2004.

Both of us are here at Wunderground.com at this moment...

...that should put the fear of God into you...because we are here for that LOW.

That is very cool. If fate permits it, there are a few folks I would like to meet in person here.I have been on the blog six years this month. I have great respect for many on here for there knowledge and kindness...Good people are not always easy to find. Those of us that have traveled a lot know this.
Quoting 1542. cat6band:



Well, the powerball is at 400 million....would you mind giving up those numbers as well? Cause it does seem like you have a crystal ball....


You're right, I should rephrase. 95L will NOT impact Florida this weekend, because it will be a separate disturbance (baroclinic low) that brings the heavy rain to Florida. 95L will still be meandering somewhere in the Gulf next week, and could go anywhere, but it would be mid to late next week.
Quoting 1564. Chucktown:


You're right, I should rephrase. 95L will NOT impact Florida this weekend, because it will be a separate disturbance (baroclinic low) that brings the heavy rain to Florida. 95L will still be meandering somewhere in the Gulf next week, and could go anywhere, but it would be mid to late next week.



That sounds alot better......but, can you give me the powerball numbers? lol!!
This is the only animation I have of many hurricanes making US landfall.

By the end of this month, I should have one more... :(

1567. hydrus
Quoting 1516. Torito:
Looking good manuel.

Manuel has been an impressive storm in my book.
Quoting 1564. Chucktown:


You're right, I should rephrase. 95L will NOT impact Florida this weekend, because it will be a separate disturbance (baroclinic low) that brings the heavy rain to Florida. 95L will still be meandering somewhere in the Gulf next week, and could go anywhere, but it would be mid to late next week.


Much better because the Euro has 95L crossing S or C FL in 8 days.
1569. Patrap
Melbourne, FL Weather Discussion:
"Sun-tues...a complex weather pattern appears to be evolving. A potent shortwave trough drops southeast through the Mississippi and Tennessee valleys this weekend and cuts off from the jet stream flow over Alabama. This will pull deep tropical moisture north and east across the Florida Peninsula increasing rain chances and bring a threat for heavy rain early next week. This cold upper low should induce a baroclinic surface low near the central Gulf Coast which lifts northeast to near Cape Hatteras Monday or Tuesday and pushes a frontal boundary south into central Florida by Wednesday.

Meanwhile...hurricane center give high probabilities that a tropical wave over the Yucatan Peninsula will become better organized once it pushes into the Bay of Campeche in the next day or so. NHC/wpc keep low pressure meandering over the SW Gulf of Mexico into the middle of the next week. And both GFS and European model (ecmwf)
show a weak area of low pressure left behind along the western extent of the front in the south central Gulf of Mexico middle week as well.

Regardless of how these features develop...it appears we are headed toward a wet and cloudy period the first half of next week. "
1571. EllasD
Quoting 1554. CycloneOz:
PensacolaDoug and I worked through many hurricanes together...since 2004.

Both of us are here at Wunderground.com at this moment...

...that should put the fear of God into you...because we are here for that LOW.



hmmmm saw the fear of God put into YOU, when you and your wife were chasing tornados!!

glad to see back on the blog
1572. Torito
South platte river still not rising. :P

Quoting 1552. RitaEvac:
I'm noticing in the models that when they turn it NE, there is some major slow (days) movement in those tracks, so that tells me a stall more than anything in the GOM, if the stalled out washed out frontal boundary washes out, a ridge is bound to develop somewhere, will it form over the SE and push GOM system back west or will a trough come on down and push it out finally. That is the question.



Texas landfalls are shut down now as the troughs will keep coming. Just run the Euro and GFS models and you will see that they are coming every few days now.


Chuck, I wait for your take on GW nearly every day now, lmbo! :)

Welcome back Largo!
Quoting 1571. EllasD:


hmmmm saw the fear of God put into YOU, when you and your wife were chasing tornados!!

glad to see back on the blog


Interesting...that she is my ex- now...and it all went south in our relationship after that "kidnapping." :D
Quoting 1563. hydrus:
That is very cool. If fate permits it, there are a few folks I would like to meet in person here.I have been on the blog six years this month. I have great respect for many on here for there knowledge and kindness...Good people are not always easy to find. Those of us that have traveled a lot know this.


Good morning everyone

A beautiful 86, feeling like 98, with a chance of T'storms on the island today.

I second that comment, hydrus! I'd love to get an email some day from some of my favorite bloggers telling me they're coming in by ship or holiday. I'd gladly get together with them.

Largo, welcome back! Missed you!

Lindy
Appears to be moving North on this radar, although there could be multiple vorticities, seems to be elongated at some level...



850 MB



700MB



500 MB



200 MB



Divergence



Convergence




Chances are increasing for a heavy rain event for parts TX starting Thursday into Friday night. Air column to be totally saturated and 2-3 inch an hr rain events are possible.
1579. EllasD
Quoting 1575. CycloneOz:


Interesting...that she is my ex- now...and it all went south in our relationship after that "kidnapping." :D


everything happens for a reason! If you come up to Biloxi, let us know,
If this develops, this could be a problem down the road for someone.
Quoting 1554. CycloneOz:
PensacolaDoug and I worked through many hurricanes together...since 2004.

Both of us are here at Wunderground.com at this moment...

...that should put the fear of God into you...because we are here for that LOW.



seeing you two together again makes me nervous ;) welcome back Oz

Not liking the set up in the GOM at all....
Quoting 1574. masonsnana:
Chuck, I wait for your take on GW nearly every day now, lmbo! :)

Welcome back Largo!


I can't help myself, this increase of .2 degrees of the average temperature is making me loopy.
Howdy from Vermilion Block 179, GOM.

Watching 95L with interest. Anything within 250nm and TS strength has us leaving the rig. I see the models having a spaghetti fight early next week, then NE shortly thereafter. Is this too simplistic of an evaluation?

Also, saw one model that keeps it TS. Is anything disagreeing with this?

Quoting 1580. SouthernIllinois:
If this develops, this could be a problem down the road for someone.


With this one...I think it is not a question of "if."

I think it is more of a question of "when later today?"
1585. IKE

Quoting gulfbreeze:
Is there a model that is reliable on strength real ? not trying to be a SA!
As far as actual intensity....I'm not sure.
Quoting 1581. hurricanehanna:


seeing you two together again makes me nervous ;) welcome back Oz

Not liking the set up in the GOM at all....


I am working out my schedule to be in Dr. Master's blog very often over the course of the next week.

There will be a period during travel when I will be down...Sunday into Monday.

The Gulf is a powder keg.
Quoting 1583. DocMurphy:
Howdy from Vermilion Block 179, GOM.

Watching 95L with interest. Anything within 250nm and TS strength has us leaving the rig. I see the models having a spaghetti fight early next week, then NE shortly thereafter. Is this too simplistic of an evaluation?

Also, saw one model that keeps it TS. Is anything disagreeing with this?



Models will have a much better latch onto this once it re-emerges back out over water from the Yucatan, as it does not really have a well defined surface low yet and that can still easily change until it does so. There will also be a few other variables in play that will complicate the forecast.
Quoting 1578. RitaEvac:
Chances are increasing for a heavy rain event for parts TX starting Thursday into Friday night. Air column to be totally saturated and 2-3 inch an hr rain events are possible.

We're going to have lots of nice moisture steaming off of Manuel, that's for sure.

Quoting 1579. EllasD:


everything happens for a reason! If you come up to Biloxi, let us know,


Unfortunately...my pension payments are barely adequate. I was able to save money over the last six months in Ecuador...but the cash was used to buy my tickets and hotel room in Miami.

I won't be going anywhere.

If I cover the storm...it will be via Wi-Fi from a very nice hotel room near to Miami Airport. :)

It will have to come to me...I will not go to it. (Nor...to Biloxi.) :)

Lastly...I do not plan to return to the USA anytime soon once I leave on Saturday, September 28.
1591. K8eCane
Quoting 1590. CycloneOz:


Unfortunately...my pension payments are barely adequate. I was able to save money over the last six months in Ecuador...but the cash was used to buy my tickets and hotel room in Miami.

I won't be going anywhere.

If I cover the storm...it will be via Wi-Fi from a very nice hotel room near to Miami Airport. :)

It will have to come to me...I will not go to it. (Nor...to Biloxi.) :)

Lastly...I do not plan to return to the USA anytime soon once I leave on Saturday, September 28.


u got a cashflow problem too?
Quoting 1589. 1900hurricane:

We're going to have lots of nice moisture steaming off of Manuel, that's for sure.



Manuel, leftovers from Ingrid, and incoming 95L all pulling moisture in a beeline into TX
so nice to see some familiar "faces" back in here....but it tells me things are about to get hairy...
1594. Patrap
As with guidance, so with Intensity, one looks for consensus among the members for insight.




Quoting 1583. DocMurphy:
Howdy from Vermilion Block 179, GOM.

Watching 95L with interest. Anything within 250nm and TS strength has us leaving the rig. I see the models having a spaghetti fight early next week, then NE shortly thereafter. Is this too simplistic of an evaluation?

Also, saw one model that keeps it TS. Is anything disagreeing with this?



Nope, that is a pretty good summation of things right now.
1596. jpsb
Quoting 1580. SouthernIllinois:
If this develops, this could be a problem down the road for someone.


I bet you are right.
1597. hydrus
Houston doesn't know it yet, but we've got incoming
Quoting 1593. hurricanehanna:
so nice to see some familiar "faces" back in here....but it tells me things are about to get hairy...


Just thinking the same thing. Glad to see so many familiar faces but scary all the same.

Just missing Kman, and cchsweatherman.....
Typhoon Usagi intensifying rapidly.

Quoting 1551. CycloneOz:
DOUG!

I can't come to Pensacola!





Figures.
1602. MahFL
Oh oh, convection expanding a lot to the NW with 95L.
I'm betting that JTWC is very conservative on this forecast. This is going to be a bad storm. Usagi has not wasted any time in organizing.

Also models have shifted south, getting rather close to Hong Kong, still well over 5 days out, much can change in that time frame, but I would venture a stronger storm than 105 knots at peak if this avoids shear and land.



1604. vis0
ALT TITLE: Who needs a beanstalk when...
CREDIT: Univision news (off my reception)


NOT RELATED TO VID.

Interesting thing i just thought WOW to, i appended to post #1402(p29)
on Dr. Masters' 2525# blog, to a comment KoritheMan as to how he was
adjusting his Ts\Hurr.\Hurr.+ predictions.



That while the ml-d ("ml-d" is a device i state influences weather) was
ON

no TD/TS formed in the Atlantic/GoMx. Maybe ONE TD/TS did but am too
busy to double check now, taking Father to have teeth done. Typing
& Posting this so i don't forget

Looking at the 12Z sounding from Del Rio, everything above 600 mb is saturated due to Manuel's moisture.

Trying to figure out if that is the actual LLC already over the water and moving west, seeing Low level banding sweeping out over the waters, visible loop isn't long enough to tell.
Quoting 1578. RitaEvac:
Chances are increasing for a heavy rain event for parts TX starting Thursday into Friday night. Air column to be totally saturated and 2-3 inch an hr rain events are possible.


That's a lot of water. Most of our streets here have problems with 1 inch per hour rain.

95L should come off land very soon. Still a hard call. TX getting some rain from this isn't out of the question. Models are together to a point..then diverge wildly. Looking at the average model error for 95L with 24hrs to verify yet..overall the models aren't doing well. The ones that stands out as doing better than the rest is the TV models..which eventually turn it back east.

model 0hrs 24hrs
TV15 0 18.9
TVCA 0 18.9
TVCC 0 24.7
TVCE 0 18.9
TVCN 0 18.9

Quoting 1606. 1900hurricane:
Looking at the 12Z sounding from Del Rio, everything above 600 mb is saturated due to Manuel's moisture.



Means we don't need need tall based highly convective thunderstorms to do the job, the ingredients are already there for rainfall
Y'all realize that most people in hurricane prone areas have become complacent this year after all of the hype during the pre hurricane season forecast. I know that everyone in here is not complacent, but the fear is that no one is going to take any storm seriously that develops this year. Could be devastating!
1612. Greg01
Quoting 1598. RitaEvac:
Houston doesn't know it yet, but we've got incoming


The National Weather Service Houston-Galveston put out a notice yesterday regarding ingredients coming together for a significant rainfall event in Houston this Friday.
If 95L make landfall in NE Gulf Coast, it would be bad flooding for SE USA because of rain we already have received this year.
Quoting 1608. nofailsafe:


That's a lot of water. Most of our streets here have problems with 1 inch per hour rain.


More likely isolated than widespread
1615. jpsb
Quoting 1610. RitaEvac:


Means we don't need need tall based highly convective thunderstorms to do the job, the ingredients are already there for rainfall

I am waiting for a forecast of rain to plant my fall garden since we are under a no watering order. Looks like I will plant today, thanks for the tip. (galveston bay area)
Link

It's fairly localized (a low level trough), but FWIW, we've gotten over 4 1/2" of rain so far in the last coupla hours. Has eased a bit, but still coming down...
Quoting 1611. PanhandleChuck:
Y'all realize that most people in hurricane prone areas have become complacent this year after all of the hype during the pre hurricane season forecast. I know that everyone in here is not complacent, but the fear is that no one is going to take any storm seriously that develops this year. Could be devastating!

I think you're dead right!

Us weather watchers here in the FL Panhandle sure are on guard right now.
Quoting 1611. PanhandleChuck:
Y'all realize that most people in hurricane prone areas have become complacent this year after all of the hype during the pre hurricane season forecast. I know that everyone in here is not complacent, but the fear is that no one is going to take any storm seriously that develops this year. Could be devastating!


I think if we ever get a storm that makes it past a minimal hurricane in strength people will take notice more. Even this storm that is about to move into the BOC looks like it will stay weak and be just a rain maker.
Good morning...95L. And I see recon will be going in later today.

1620. Torito
Looking good Usagi.

Quoting 1591. K8eCane:


u got a cashflow problem too?


In Ecuador...no problem with cash flow. Most things are very inexpensive...especially the good, chemical-free food you have to cook from scratch.

But this trip to Miami cost me all of my savings. I can buy a new pair of shoes and a couple of other minor necessities...but that's all.

Once I get back, I have to start saving again.
Quoting 1617. opal92nwf:

I think you're dead right!

Us weather watchers here in the FL Panhandle sure are on guard right now.


True, but maybe not the best choice of words? May be what happens unfortunately. .......
Quoting 1611. PanhandleChuck:
Y'all realize that most people in hurricane prone areas have become complacent this year after all of the hype during the pre hurricane season forecast. I know that everyone in here is not complacent, but the fear is that no one is going to take any storm seriously that develops this year. Could be devastating!


Don't completely agree with you. I think the majority of us that live on the GOM take "actual" hurricanes very seriously. What I'm complacent about and don't take seriously are the annual projections and doomsday hype that comes with the start of every hurricane season.
Quoting 1610. RitaEvac:


Means we don't need need tall based highly convective thunderstorms to do the job, the ingredients are already there for rainfall

Low level moisture coming off the Gulf is pretty nice too. We just need a triggering mechanism now, and that's where Friday's front comes into play. Here's to hoping that 850-700 mb winds don't flip into coming off the Mexican Plateau...
0z FIM-7:

Quoting 1612. Greg01:


The National Weather Service Houston-Galveston put out a notice yesterday regarding ingredients coming together for a significant rainfall event in Houston this Friday.


Our local Houston weather has been saying 80% chance of the wet stuff on Friday.
Rita and Pat, looking at the marine forecast about 20 to 25 knot winds extending 270miles to the ne of systems reminds me of isadore when it left the yuc. Also Juan scenario is possible.A hybrid system. I still think this will merge with cold fornt. And if the high moves back in as it comes north it could do the loop the loop.So I would think the folks far away from the center could have the worst weather.Thats my take, probably wrong lol.
1628. Torito
TOMS RIVER, N.J. — The massive fire that destroyed part of a Jersey shore boardwalk and scores of businesses began accidentally by wiring damaged in Superstorm Sandy, and should prompt coastal property owners to inspect their own wiring for similar danger, authorities said Tuesday.

The boardwalk fire in Seaside Park and Seaside Heights began accidentally Thursday in aged wiring that had been compromised by saltwater and sand during the Oct. 29 storm, federal and county investigators said at a news conference. The wind-whipped blaze destroyed more than 50 businesses in the two towns.

Ocean County Prosecutor Joseph Coronato said the fire should be a cautionary tale.

"I'm sure on every boardwalk everywhere (at the Jersey shore), there may be compromised wiring," he said. "We don't want to start a panic mode; we just want to be reasonable. If you're a property owner and you think your electrical work came in contact with water and sand, we strongly recommend you have it inspected."

Whole article here.
Quoting 1623. oceanspringsMS:


Don't completely agree with you. I think the majority of us that live on the GOM take "actual" hurricanes very seriously. What I'm complacent about and don't take seriously is the annual projections and doomsday hype that comes with the start of every hurricane season.


I hope you are right
Events are going to happen in 24-48-72 hours which is the order in time and how the real world works, but yet I see posts of over 120+hrs of model runs that are pointless. More or less "if it aint affecting me I'm looking 5 days out to models because that's all I care about".
1631. Patrap
NAVGEM is showing NE Gulf Coast:

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1634. Walshy
new blog
1636. EllasD
Quoting 1623. oceanspringsMS:


Don't completely agree with you. I think the majority of us that live on the GOM take "actual" hurricanes very seriously. What I'm complacent about and don't take seriously is the annual projections and doomsday hype that comes with the start of every hurricane season.


ITA, our EOCs spring into action quickly,shut down the casinos, warn ppl in flood prown areas, ppl top off their hurricane supplies. The issue is the low income ppl who can't afford supplies, or don't have a way to evac out. That's why Katrina, all 3 Ms Coastal counties offer busses to pick ppl up to take them to shelters, and now some shelters are taking pets. Also, I think many come here to see what's REALLY going on since our local mets are a joke
Quoting 1632. GTstormChaserCaleb:
NAVGEM is showing NE Gulf Coast:



1002 mb? I do not know about that...

This is a very interesting time for this LOW.

So much depends on that frontal boundary and what it does.

72 hours of interesting moments are right ahead.
1638. Patrap

Hurricane Isidore in the Gulf of Mexico

Formed September 14, 2002
Dissipated September 27, 2002
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
125 mph (205 km/h)
Lowest pressure 934 mbar (hPa); 27.58 inHg
Fatalities 19 direct, 3 indirect
Damage $1.3 billion (2002 USD)
Areas affected Venezuela, Jamaica, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Yucatn Peninsula, Louisiana, Mississippi
Part of the 2002 Atlantic hurricane season.




1639. jpsb
Quoting 1628. Torito:
"I'm sure on every boardwalk everywhere (at the Jersey shore), there may be compromised wiring," he said. "We don't want to start a panic mode; we just want to be reasonable. If you're a property owner and you think your electrical work came in contact with water and sand, we strongly recommend you have it inspected."

Whole article here.

You've got to be kidding me, who doesn't know that once wiring comes into prolong contact with sea water it is going fail. Everyone knows that! Local gov should have condemned the wiring and local power companies should have refused to turn on power until compromised wiring was replaced.
Quoting 1639. jpsb:

You've got to be kidding me, who doesn't know that once wiring comes into prolong contact with sea water it is going fail. Everyone knows that! Local gov should have condemned the wiring and local power companies should have refused to turn on power until compromised wiring was replaced.


One of things I found most interesting in my many hurricane chases is that hurricanes "taste like salt water."

And it makes sense! So much wind over the water whips up the salty water into its matrix.

Hurricanes are notorious for ruining electronics.
L95 entering to Campeche, Mexico.

Going out to the Gulf of Mexico.

See you later (Jerry).


It's raining here on Merida, Yucatan and winds.
1642. MahFL
Quoting 1613. Bluestorm5:
If 95L make landfall in NE Gulf Coast, it would be bad flooding for SE USA because of rain we already have received this year.


It's pouring here today in Orange Park, 0.62 inch so far today.
Labonbon here you go.