WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Tropical Storms Ingrid and Manuel Hit Mexico, Killing 21

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:34 PM GMT on September 16, 2013

Tropical Storm Ingrid hit the Mexican coast about 200 miles south of the Texas border with top sustained winds of 65 mph at approximately 8 am EDT Monday morning. Ingrid weakened below hurricane strength just before landfall, and it appears that strong upper-level winds from the outflow of Tropical Storm Manuel to its west may have been responsible for keeping Ingrid weaker than expected for the past 24 hours. Satellite loops show that Ingrid is a relatively small storm, but the storm is bringing torrential rains to portions of Mexico a few hundred miles south of the Texas border. Flooding from the combined one-two punch of Ingrid on the Atlantic coast and Tropical Storm Manuel on Mexico's Pacific coast are already being blamed for the deaths of 21 people, according to AP. However, Ingrid is also bringing beneficial rains to areas of northern Mexico and South Texas that are in extreme drought.


Figure 1. Radar image from the Brownsville, Texas radar of Tropical Storm Ingrid at landfall, near 8 am EDT September 16, 2013.

Ingrid was the second hurricane of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, and Ingrid's peak intensity of 85 mph on Saturday tied it with Hurricane Humberto as the strongest hurricane of the 2013 season so far. Ingrid's intensification into a hurricane on September 14 came eighteen days later than the usual appearance of the Atlantic's second hurricane of the season, which is August 28. Ingrid is the third named storm to hit Mexico's Gulf of Mexico coast so far in 2013, which is a very high level of tropical activity for the region. Only 1933 (seven storms), 1936 (six storms), and 2005 (five storms) had more tropical storms or hurricanes make landfall on Mexico's Gulf of Mexico coast. Two other years have also had three such landfalls, 1944 and 1931.




Figure 2. Rainfall for the 24-hour period ending at 8 am EDT September 14, 2013 (top) and 8 am EDT September 15, 2013 (bottom). Rainfall amounts in excess of five inches (red colors) affected portions of Mexico both days. Image credit: Conagua.


Figure 3. Predicted rainfall for Tropical Storm Ingrid from the 06Z (2 am EDT) September 16, 2013 run of the HWRF model. Image credit: NOAA/GFDL.

Ingrid's impact on Texas
In South Texas, Ingrid brought a storm surge of one foot on Sunday afternoon and Monday morning to South Padre Island, where a coastal flood warning is in effect. Seas were eight feet high Tuesday morning at buoy 42020, located 58 miles southeast of Corpus Christi, and large waves are causing dangerous surf all along the South Texas coast. No flash flood watches are posted for South Texas ay present, but 2 - 5" of rain may cause some isolated flooding problems. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Brownsville radar shows that some areas north of the city have received 3 - 4" of rain, and coastal and mountain areas of Mexico 100 - 200 miles south of the border have received 5 - 10".

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The remains of Hurricane Humberto are regenerating back into a tropical storm, but newly re-formed Humberto will stay far out to sea and will not be a threat to any land areas.

An area of disturbed weather over the Western Caribbean will move over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by late this week. NHC gave the disturbance 5-day development odds of 20% in their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook. Moisture from the disturbance is likely to stream northeastwards across the Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, Florida, and the Western Bahamas during the period 7 - 14 days from now, bringing heavy rainfall.

The tropical Atlantic will be dominated by dry air this week, and the models are not showing any development from new African tropical waves during the coming week. With the African monsoon now beginning to wane, and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) expected to be in a phase that will bring sinking air to the tropical Atlantic during the remainder of September, the Cape Verde hurricane season is likely over; I give only a 30% chance that we will see a tropical storm develop between the Lesser Antilles Islands and coast of Africa during the remainder of hurricane season. However, we will likely get several more tropical storms forming in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, or waters near the Bahamas during the remainder of the season.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 17 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID...LOCATED INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO...AND IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO...
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER BELIZE AND THE SOUTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND
THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE LOW IS LIKELY TO DRIFT TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER IN
THE WEEK...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THAT
TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.


1002. IKE
From New Orleans....

IN THE TROPICS...AN AREA OF DISTURBED OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR YUCATAN PENINSULA IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO MOVE WEST
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING
THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH MODELS GENERALLY TAKING IT WEST TOWARD MEXICO. IN
ADDITION...SOME OF THE MODELS WANT TO DEVELOP A BAROCLINIC LOW
ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GULF AND MOVE IT
EAST NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND/OR NEXT WEEK.

From Houston NWS:
A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL PUSH INTO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY AND EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON
WEDNESDAY. MODELS KEEP THIS SYSTEM AS A FAIRLY DISORGANIZED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND ANY MOVEMENT
TOWARD SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BE HAMPERED BY AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL REACH THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHICH WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF INGRID AND MANUEL
WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD INTO TEXAS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND WILL
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ON FRIDAY. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
AND INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND OFFSHORE WATERS ON
SATURDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES THE COAST. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE STATE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE MID 90S. 38
If you live in FL watch the future forecast as the models are mixed on a Hybrid or fully tropical system impacting the state come Sunday.


Someone brough Cafe Du Mond coffee today! Wish I had some low fat shrimp to go with it.

Nea, my 8 ball says to agree with you. It also said Humberto was headed to Spain.

Still hitting the 90's but it should cool down after tomorrow.
1006. FOREX
Quoting 1004. StormTrackerScott:
If you live in FL watch the future forecast as the models are mixed on a Hybrid or fully tropical system impacting the state come Sunday.



Should I be concerned in the panhandle?
Quoting 1004. StormTrackerScott:
If you live in FL watch the future forecast as the models are mixed on a Hybrid or fully tropical system impacting the state come Sunday.


Looks like another Debby and Andrea situation. Well I'm off to class, see you guys in a little bit.
Quoting 1006. FOREX:


Should I be concerned in the panhandle?


Not yet but definitely watch the forecast the next few days as the NHC thinks we may have fully tropical system moving NE somewhere toward FL. Could be Panhandle or it could be near Tampa
1009. FOREX
Quoting 1008. StormTrackerScott:


Not yet but definitely watch the forecast the next few days as the NHC thinks we may have fully tropical system moving NE somewhere toward FL. Could be Panhandle or it could be near Tampa


thanks Scott.
1010. VR46L
Humberto needs to get his trousers on...

Enlarged Image embedded

Quoting 996. VR46L:


Umm were did that come from ... How far back do I have to read ?

If its about the full moon comment that because the Full moon can effect peoples mood and maybe act out more ... but I guess Mood and emotion has no place on a weather board as its all hard and fast rules of science that never change ..... So My Bad !!!


You should put him on ignore. He's nothing but a troll.
Quoting 1002. IKE:
From New Orleans....

IN THE TROPICS...AN AREA OF DISTURBED OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR YUCATAN PENINSULA IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO MOVE WEST
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING
THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH MODELS GENERALLY TAKING IT WEST TOWARD MEXICO. IN
ADDITION...SOME OF THE MODELS WANT TO DEVELOP A BAROCLINIC LOW
ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GULF AND MOVE IT
EAST NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND/OR NEXT WEEK.



Well this sure as heck doesn't look frontal. All the models except your Bam models show a bend to the NE. I would watch closely!

Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #4
TROPICAL STORM ODETTE
5:00 PM PhST September 17 2013
=================================================

Tropical Storm "ODETTE" remains almost stationary

At 4:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Odette [USAGI] (997 hPa) located at 17.5N 130.5E or 815 km east of Tuguegarao City has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gustiness up to 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Additional Information
========================

Tropical Storm "ODETTE" is expected to remain almost stationary within the next 24-36 hours. With this development, PSWS #1 are now lifted over Cagayan including Calayan and Babuyan Group of Islands.

This disturbance is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon that will bring light to moderate rains and thunderstorms over the western sections of southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 15-20 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 350 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Sea travel is risky over the seaboards of Occidental Mindoro and Palawan.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
DEVELOPING LOW, FORMER TC MAN-YI
15:00 PM JST September 17 2013
=====================================

Sea Around Kuril Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Extratropical Low, Former Man-yi (960 hPa) located at 52.0N 156.0E is reported as moving north northeast at 35 knots.
It wouldn't surprise me if we had a pretty strong system in the GULF come this weekend. The only track that makes sense right now is the bend NE as a upper trough cuts off near New Orleans creating steering out of the SW for 95L. Very different set than the one we had with Ingrid.
1018. FOREX
Quoting 1017. StormTrackerScott:
It wouldn't surprise me if we had a pretty strong system in the GULF come this weekend. The only track that makes sense right now is the bend NE as a upper trough cuts off near New Orleans creating steering out of the SW for 95L. Very different set than the one we had with Ingrid.


I know from previous posts over the years that you are very proficient with Gulf systems. I will look forward to your updated thoughts as this progresses.
Wow! What a "bust" this season turned out to be! All we had were weak tropical storms and short lived hurricanes. I guess it's just not hot enough for these un-needed cooling systems. So much for the GW theory! :)
Quoting 1017. StormTrackerScott:
It wouldn't surprise me if we had a pretty strong system in the GULF come this weekend. The only track that makes sense right now is the bend NE as a upper trough cuts off near New Orleans creating steering out of the SW for 95L. Very different set than the one we had with Ingrid.


So you think this will be a well-organized strong hurricane instead of a piece of BOC trash?
Humberto looking nice.

1022. vis0

Quoting 873. KoritheMan:
I was talking to my brother about how close Ingrid was to hitting Louisiana, and I realized one thing; Manuel was also a huge factor in why she didn't go northward. Then it hit me... in order for government weather modification on a massive scale (such as to discourage hurricane formation and movement toward the US), it would take a lot of planning that just doesn't make sense.

For example, ...95L was being forecast by the global models, right now, to move northeastward into Louisiana one week from today as a hurricane. In order for the US government to be able to effectively prevent that scenario from happening, they would literally have to act ...
When I pondered that, I realized how utterly insane I was for ever giving that idea such strong credibility. Any government prevention program would have to be premeditated, ...
Hard if not impossible...Unless one can tap into an energy source from the planet that encompasses the planet,
Like using the force of the ocean (a force that encompasses the planet) on itself to stop storm waves.
Posted
AN IDEA on a S. American site (after the big Chilean quake/miners
trapped) Idea in simple terms is a floating heavy wall that has a
corkscrew curve to it under water formation many feet under water, and several strategically placed are used not just one.
Its
wide hallow sea surface area balances it even through the
strongest of waves, the underwater duo-corkscrew design forces the water
above to fight itself,  sink and disturb the wave to the point that the
wave loses its strength in not being as wide. Like breaking up a line
of linemen in football means the line is not as powerful. Plus as water goes
to fill the lowest point in the waves caused by the corkscrew action it
also lowers the entire waves strength.
Placed as buoys near Tsunami active areas  prevents the need for a response time to move them.

BTW, i state there is someone influencing the weather, little (husky) 'ol me.
Crazy sure, but try reading my blog as B-movie/sci-fi.
Quoting 1021. FunnelVortex:
Humberto looking nice.

what a joke.
Quoting 1004. StormTrackerScott:
If you live in FL watch the future forecast as the models are mixed on a Hybrid or fully tropical system impacting the state come Sunday.




Good morning everyone! I'll welcome a weak tropical system that brings some rain to NW Florida. We couldn't get the rain to stop in July and August and now you can't buy rain for my area, been almost 3 weeks without rain and temps in the low 90's everyday! Things are starting to dry up & turn brown, hard to believe after the wet summer we had. I guess there's just no happy medium!
1025. OneDrop
Quoting 1007. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Looks like another Debby and Andrea situation. Well I'm off to class, see you guys in a little bit.
Agreed! Met's here in NE Florida are mentioning it on the weekend weather forecast. Debbie was a soaker! This potential system could provide the much needed offshore flow to glass off any residual swell left over from Humberto!!
Quoting 1023. Waltanater:
what a joke.


Your problem?
1027. FOREX
Quoting 1026. FunnelVortex:


Your problem?


He is a known troll and has nothing ever constructive to add. Ig nore him like I am going to right now.
Quoting 1027. FOREX:


He is a known troll and has nothing ever constructive to add. Ig nore him like I am going to right now.


I can tell. He gets mad at me for still being a fan of Humberto...
Quoting 1028. FunnelVortex:


I can tell. He gets mad at me for still being a fan of Humberto...
No, I was not mad at you at all...I was referring to Humberto being the joke, not you. I just don't see it doing anything more development wise.
Quoting 1020. FunnelVortex:


So you think this will be a well-organized strong hurricane instead of a piece of BOC trash?
Quoting 1020. FunnelVortex:


So you think this will be a well-organized strong hurricane instead of a piece of BOC trash?


I don't see anyway that we will see a hurricane moving towards Florida coming out of the BOC. The trough that would steer it will also produce a high amount of shear. We could see a hybrid system or sheared weak TS.
Quoting 1028. FunnelVortex:


I can tell. He gets mad at me for still being a fan of Humberto...
I was a fan of Humberto as well...after all it was first system to become a Hurricane this year!
Quoting 1031. clwstmchasr:


I don't see anyway that we will see a hurricane moving towards Florida coming out of the BOC. The trough that would steer it will also produce a high amount of shear. We could see a hybrid system or sheared weak TS.


A subtrop? I like those :B
I got up this morning its cold outside!! only 41 F at 7am this morning
Quoting 1014. GeoffreyWPB:
Quoting 1017. StormTrackerScott:
It wouldn't surprise me if we had a pretty strong system in the GULF come this weekend. The only track that makes sense right now is the bend NE as a upper trough cuts off near New Orleans creating steering out of the SW for 95L. Very different set than the one we had with Ingrid.


It will be interesting to see how 95L reacts in the BOC. There shouldn't be another invest/TS there to shear it, but at the same time how much energy did Ingrid zap out of the BOC. Winds never got too strong, but she took her sweet time coming ashore.

Quoting 1019. Waltanater:
Wow! What a "bust" this season turned out to be! All we had were weak tropical storms and short lived hurricanes. I guess it's just not hot enough for these un-needed cooling systems. So much for the GW theory! :)


Except climate projections call for fewer hurricanes in a warmer world due to increasingly unfavorable conditions (such as increased wind shear).

0 points for style. 0 points for originality. 10 points for trolling. Better luck next time.



On a curious note this past September 8

An incredible image reveals a rare moment of calm on Earth with clear skies above three oceans.

The image, taken on September 8, shows no hurricanes, cyclones, or tropical storms in the Atlantic, Pacific, or Indian Ocean basin.


A total of 14 polar satellite images, also known as swaths, were stitched together to create the stunning view.



Link
Quoting 1034. hurricanes2018:
I got up this morning its cold outside!! only 41 F at 7am this morning
So much for global warming! Some people are just "frozen" in their tracks right now.
1039. VR46L
Quoting 1036. Xyrus2000:


Except climate projections call for fewer hurricanes in a warmer world due to increasingly unfavorable conditions (such as increased wind shear).

0 points for style. 0 points for originality. 10 points for trolling. Better luck next time.





I know a different handle marked a comment I made similarly over in Dr Rood's blog some months back...
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL952013 09/17/13 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 48 56 63 68 73 75 76 79
V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 26 26 37 45 52 58 40 31 28 27
V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 25 26 26 35 43 54 66 45 32 28 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 9 8 4 7 9 4 6 3 9 4 11 9 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 -2 -3 0 -1 0 -3
SHEAR DIR 339 10 12 351 20 170 360 84 30 352 353 357 17
SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0
POT. INT. (KT) 144 147 149 150 152 152 151 149 147 146 147 149 149
ADJ. POT. INT. 131 136 138 139 141 141 139 136 132 129 130 132 133
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -51.4 -51.8 -50.9 -51.4 -50.7 -51.3 -50.5 -51.4
TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 9 8 7 10 8 12 9 13 10 13 9
700-500 MB RH 82 81 80 79 79 78 76 76 77 77 80 77 74
GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 10 10 10 9 9 7 6 5 5 4 5
850 MB ENV VOR 75 83 86 84 73 80 74 75 60 55 72 54 51
200 MB DIV 39 28 29 30 32 33 41 33 35 45 46 24 26
700-850 TADV 0 2 1 -1 -2 2 -1 4 -3 0 -1 -2 0
LAND (KM) 0 -52 -130 -74 -4 111 191 119 12 -65 -146 -241 -349
LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.1 19.6 20.1 20.7 21.2 21.7 21.7 21.5 21.2
LONG(DEG W) 88.0 88.7 89.4 90.1 90.8 92.4 94.0 95.7 97.2 98.4 99.2 100.1 101.1
STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 5 4 4 5
HEAT CONTENT 33 68 0 27 34 15 13 29 18 0 0 9999 9999

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=624)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
-------------------------------------------------- --------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
-------------------------------------------------- --------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 31. 38. 43. 48. 50. 51. 54.

** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952013 INVEST 09/17/13 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.4 times the sample mean(11.9%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952013 INVEST 09/17/13 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952013 INVEST 09/17/2013 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

AL, 95, 2013091712, 01, CARQ, 0, 180N, 880W, 25, 1006, LO, 64, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, X, 285, 3, INVEST, M ,
Quoting 1036. Xyrus2000:


Except climate projections call for fewer hurricanes in a warmer world due to increasingly unfavorable conditions (such as increased wind shear).

0 points for style. 0 points for originality. 10 points for trolling. Better luck next time.





I thought the argument was that GW would bring stronger hurricanes and more frequent. Sorry you cannot have it both ways decide wich one will it be. This is why ppl arguing GW has issues with credibility. As a matter of fact, Al Gore uses a hurricane in his inconveniece truth movie poster. IMO.
1043. FOREX
Quoting 1041. HurricaneAndre:

AL, 95, 2013091712, 01, CARQ, 0, 180N, 880W, 25, 1006, LO, 64, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, X, 285, 3, INVEST, M ,


So is current pressure estimated 1006 or 1008?
1044. VR46L
RMTC - Sector 5 - Ch 4 - Thermal Infrared

Loop Embedded

Quoting 1037. CaneHunter031472:
On a curious note this past September 8

An incredible image reveals a rare moment of calm on Earth with clear skies above three oceans.

The image, taken on September 8, shows no hurricanes, cyclones, or tropical storms in the Atlantic, Pacific, or Indian Ocean basin.


A total of 14 polar satellite images, also known as swaths, were stitched together to create the stunning view.



Link
Cool. (no pun intended)
Quoting 1043. FOREX:


So is current pressure estimated 1006 or 1008?
1006,environmental 1008.
WEATHER ALERT DAY for SE FL from Storm Team 5
Threat of heavy rain and thunderstorms through this evening

Quoting 1005. biff4ugo:
Someone brough Cafe Du Mond coffee today! Wish I had some low fat shrimp to go with it.

Nea, my 8 ball says to agree with you. It also said Humberto was headed to Spain.

Still hitting the 90's but it should cool down after tomorrow.
But we all know that's not right, because according to the all knowing, and judge Xyrus2000, climate projections call for fewer hurricanes in a warmer world! How can it cool down after tomorrow!?
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
536 AM EDT TUE SEP 17 2013

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-181000-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
536 AM EDT TUE SEP 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 4. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS CONTINUING TO BE GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

...TROPICAL IMPACT...MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. REFER TO THE LATEST TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOKS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

$$

JELSEMA

Not surprised to see 95L. Hate to say it but not as sure it will make it to TX/MX as I was a few days ago.. It might get shoved back out into the gulf & go north. It would be enhanced by the front in that case & stronger. ex98L is starting to put on a show in the Bahamas. Heads up Bermuda, this may come your way. Leaning toward CMC doom solution.. NE gulf coast & Bermuda in 5-6 days.. More confident about Bermuda than the NE gulf coast.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
Storm Warning
TROPICAL STORM USAGI (T1319)
21:00 PM JST September 17 2013
======================================

Sea East Of The Philippines

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Usagi (994 hPa) located at 17.5N 130.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center

Dvorak intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.7N 128.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 19.0N 124.6E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 20.9N 121.4E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Bashi Channel
Quoting 1051. Skyepony:
Not surprised to see 95L. Hate to say it but not as sure it will make it to TX as I was a few days ago.. It might get shoved back out into the gulf & go north. It would be enhanced by the front in that case & stronger. ex98L is starting to put on a show in the Bahamas. Heads up Bermuda, this may come your way. Leaning toward CMC doom solution.. NE gulf coast & Bermuda in 5-6 days.. More confident about Bermuda than the NE gulf coast.



I know Levi mentioned about how the central Atlantic is dead. Everywhere from Hispaniola east to the Cape Verdes, but it seems like when anything gets outside those areas they do not waste any time organizing.

This system as great upper level outflow, now anyone got anything showing what kind of circulation we got under there if any?

1054. MahFL
Still intense convection near the center of Ingrid.

Quoting 1036. Xyrus2000:


Except climate projections call for fewer hurricanes in a warmer world due to increasingly unfavorable conditions (such as increased wind shear).

0 points for style. 0 points for originality. 10 points for trolling. Better luck next time.



Since you are keeping my score, I got 3 more points! See 1038.
Wow, this is almost closed by the look of it on radar.



LINK

I'm guessing 18 degrees North and 87 degrees West? Or somewhere to the northeast of that point anyway.
Good Morning. NHC has gone up to 50% in the longer term so prudent to keep an eye on the Yucatan low as we edge towards the weekend.

That big ULL cell near the Yucatan Channel is starting to dissipate/weaken (below) so things should be pretty clear in the Northern BOC when the low emerges into the Gulf.

Link

It will pretty much boil down to needing favorable sheer levels in that region over the weekend to help the system organize; after that, we need to keep an eye on dry air intrusion issues (if the Central Gulf remains clear and dry) which could keep a TD or storm in-check from significant intensification.

It would probably be a fast moving system once it gets going but I don't have a clue whether it would have time for a fully tropical system or hybrid while on the move; it could just end up being a short lived rain-wind event and hopefully nothing more than that.

It's a watch and wait.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23
21:00 PM JST September 17 2013
======================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1000 hPa) located at 16.1N 112.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.1N 110.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
Time to bring something up from the Caribbean. Poor Mexico needs a break.
1061. ncstorm
Good Morning Folks.

I see we still got agreement on the Gulf storm developing from the models..

also wanted to note that the Navgem has done a great job with seeing the potential of the gulf systems..its been running a cape verde system in its past runs so I wouldnt discount the cape verde system just yet..wouldnt that be something..just when most think the season is dead..

last frame 180 hours

Quoting 1036. Xyrus2000:


Except climate projections call for fewer hurricanes in a warmer world due to increasingly unfavorable conditions (such as increased wind shear).

0 points for style. 0 points for originality. 10 points for trolling. Better luck next time.





Shouldn't that be -10 points for trolling?
Quoting 1036. Xyrus2000:


Except climate projections call for fewer hurricanes in a warmer world due to increasingly unfavorable conditions (such as increased wind shear).

0 points for style. 0 points for originality. 10 points for trolling. Better luck next time.




Going back almost 20 years to 1995, it sure doesn't appear these climate projections are that on par.
Today's Discussion out of Melbourne, FL regarding the possible BOC low.

"Sat-tues...the 00z GFS has changed its tune dramatically in the
evolution of the broad area of low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico
over the weekend into early next week. It now depicts a considerably
stronger upper level trough/low swinging through the Mississippi and
Tennessee valleys...along with strong baroclinic cyclogenesis along
the northern Gulf and East Coast. This swings through a decent cold
front through most of the state leaving behind a very unorganized
area of lower pressure along the front in the Bay of Campeche.

The 00z European model (ecmwf) remains close to the previous model solutions with a
weaker trough and broader double barreled (baroclinic north/tropical
south) area of low pressure over the Gulf on sun which then lifts
out in the general vicinity of Florida and the Bahamas into middle next
week.

Both scenarios look complex...and the uncertainties in intensity and
structure of any low that would potentially impact the area are
quite large. But regardless of how this feature develops...it
appears we are headed toward wetter period for at least the first
half of next week. "
Quoting 1062. JohnLonergan:


Shouldn't that be -10 points for trolling?

Making a statement that contradicts another's is called trolling now? Wow. You guys. I sure wish I spent as much time on here as you and maybe I'd see more eye to eye with you and perhaps even engage in childish name calling myself.
Quoting 1063. SouthernIllinois:

Going back almost 20 years to 1995, it sure doesn't appear these climate projections aren't that on par.
If it really "appears" that way to you, you might want to consider changing your news sources, for the ones you're probably using have terribly misled you.
1068. centex
95L may actually steal the rain expected later this week in Central Texas, bummer.

From NWS Austin/San Antonio

THE NAM SOLUTIONS PRESENT A MINOR CONCERN IN DEVELOPING THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE INTO A CYCLONE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF BY FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A REDUCED RAINFALL POTENTIAL DUE TO MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD.
Quoting 1063. SouthernIllinois:

Going back almost 20 years to 1995, it sure doesn't appear these climate projections aren't that on par.


Evidence? Looks like the deniers are the ones on the wrong end of predictions.

Good morning, weathergeeks! ;)

Rinse, repeat with 95L? Pattern doesn't look much different than it has. Low level steering is weak beneath the Tamaulipas area where Ingrid made landfall. A bit stronger steering north of that landfall currently. Depending on where 95L gets across the Yucatan lends notion to track: further south, likely south of Tampico; further north off the peninsula, possibly southeastern TX.



The ridge is still in place despite the upper level trough, and not likely to get much further north until that changes. Keep your fingers crossed, TX! ;)





Quoting 1066. Neapolitan:
If it really "appears" that way to you, you might want to consider changing your news sources.

It has nothing to do with News sources. Instead, look back at the climatological hurricane archives to observe what I am referring to. You might want to start here. Link
Quoting 1062. JohnLonergan:


Shouldn't that be -10 points for trolling?
yeah, but don't put him down though...he's not really good at math.
Quoting 1071. SouthernIllinois:

It has nothing to do with News sources. Instead, look back at the climatological hurricane archives to observe what I am referring to. You might want to start here. Link


What link are you claiming between climate and hurricanes? Considering the science is divided on the topic of climate change and hurricanes and there are two competing theories.
Quoting 1069. Naga5000:


Evidence? Looks like the deniers are the ones on the wrong end of predictions.


You see, anyone that contradicts a viewpoint of another is called a troll or denier. Do you see what is wrong with that. Right off the bat, it illustrates you already have your mind made up and are not open to hearing anything that you don't want to hear. It doesn't work that way.

1995 to 2013 sure doesn't equate with climate model projections of fewer storms.
Quoting 1062. JohnLonergan:


Shouldn't that be -10 points for trolling?


So let me see if I get you straight. First I only see you in this blog when the GW crew gets alerted that someone is trashing your religion. You come here and make the argument that anyone talking against GW is a troll and deserves a -10. Well sport, I think you and your crew deserves a -100 actually you deserve to be ignored. I'm sick of people like you really. Anyway, back to the weather, I will not bother with you.
What's all these "nuts" er uh, peanuts doing this morning....
I knew that can of worms would have a purpose! Have a nice day everyone! :)
Quoting 1076. RitaEvac:
What's all these "nuts" er uh, peanuts doing this morning....

Logging off now. Got a BUSY day today!! Just wanted to correct a couple incorrect statements made on here this morning. Of course I have the ability to do that without name calling. That's just the "nut" in me I guess. ;)
Quoting 1074. SouthernIllinois:

You see, anyone that contradicts a viewpoint of another is called a troll or denier. Do you see what is wrong with that. Right off the bat, it illustrates you already have your mind made up and are not open to hearing anything that you don't want to hear. It doesn't work that way.

1995 to 2013 sure doesn't equate with climate model projections of fewer storms.


You go girl. You are AWESOME and it is rare to see a young lady taking on this GW crew instead of joining them. There's hope for this country for what I see. Kudos to you. By the way, Love your avatar picture.
1080. ncstorm
Quoting 1078. SouthernIllinois:

Logging off now. Got a BUSY day today!! Just wanted to correct a couple incorrect statements made on here this morning. Of course I have the ability to do that without name calling. That's just the "nut" in me I guess. ;)


Don't leave us! we can't handle all the GW without youuuuu.... have a good one Natalie
S.E. and especially Fl. look for lots of precipitation next week.
Quoting 1066. Neapolitan:
If it really "appears" that way to you, you might want to consider changing your news sources, for the ones you're probably using have terribly misled you.


That's your opinion. Scientists are now debating the rate of warming over the past 15 years. Multiple news reports have stated the earth has not warmed nearly as much as the U.N.'s IPCC panel predited it would.
Quoting 1074. SouthernIllinois:

You see, anyone that contradicts a viewpoint of another is called a troll or denier. Do you see what is wrong with that. Right off the bat, it illustrates you already have your mind made up and are not open to hearing anything that you don't want to hear. It doesn't work that way.

1995 to 2013 sure doesn't equate with climate model projections of fewer storms.


Well considering you are misrepresenting the science, I only think it's fair. You don't like what the accepted science says, that's your right, but don't start putting words into scientists mouths and claiming it as accurate. Do you see the problem here?
Quoting 1083. 69Viking:


That's your opinion. Scientists are now debating the rate of warming over the past 15 years. Multiple news reports have stated the earth has not warmed nearly as much as the U.N.'s IPCC panel predited it would.


He's a denier.
Quoting 1079. CaneHunter031472:


You go girl. You are AWESOME and it is rare to see a young lady taking on this GW crew instead of joining them. There's hope for this country for what I see. Kudos to you. By the way, Love your avatar picture.
GW is not conjecture it is fact. Denial is not a river in Egypt. Ignore at your own peril and prepare to gobble crow, because as time continues the facts will become clear even to the people who still think the earth is flat.
1087. scott39
Quoting 1051. Skyepony:
Not surprised to see 95L. Hate to say it but not as sure it will make it to TX/MX as I was a few days ago.. It might get shoved back out into the gulf & go north. It would be enhanced by the front in that case & stronger. ex98L is starting to put on a show in the Bahamas. Heads up Bermuda, this may come your way. Leaning toward CMC doom solution.. NE gulf coast & Bermuda in 5-6 days.. More confident about Bermuda than the NE gulf coast.

Is the 95L solution more complex? Is that why you are more confident about about Bermuda? TIA
1088. Torito
Usagi looking nice. I wouldn't be surprised if this thing makes it to a low end cat 3 typhoon...


Quoting 1079. CaneHunter031472:


You go girl. You are AWESOME and it is rare to see a young lady taking on this GW crew instead of joining them. There's hope for this country for what I see. Kudos to you. By the way, Love your avatar picture.


She's taking on the GW crew (denier's) head on!
Quoting 1084. Naga5000:


Well considering you are misrepresenting the science, I only think it's fair. You don't like what the accepted science says, that's your right, but don't start putting words into scientists mouths and claiming it as accurate. Do you see the problem here?


Sorry, but what 'accepted science' seeing as how Scientist themselves can't even agree on whether there's GW or not, whether it's been as rapid as predicted or not, or even if we are in a Global Cooling period as of now. There is no Scientific community consensus on GW, only debate, much like this blog. SI wasn't putting words into anyone's mouth, she was questioning those coming out.
"It is unclear whether global warming is increasing hurricane frequency but there is increasing evidence that warming increases hurricane intensity." Link


"In July 2007, a survey of hurricanes in the North Atlantic over the past century noted an increase in the number of observed hurricanes, concluding "increasing cyclone numbers has lead to a distinct trend in the number of major hurricanes and one that is clearly associated with greenhouse warming" (Holland 2007). However, this was refuted by an analysis of monitoring systems stating "improved monitoring in recent years is responsible for most, if not all, of the observed trend in increasing frequency of tropical cyclones" (Landsea 2007). In other words, the reason more hurricanes are being observed may be due to an improved ability to observe them, thanks to aircraft, radar and satellites.'


This is the science behind the link between global warming and hurricanes.
Quoting 1084. Naga5000:


Well considering you are misrepresenting the science, I only think it's fair. You don't like what the accepted science says, that's your right, but don't start putting words into scientists mouths and claiming it as accurate. Do you see the problem here?


The only problem I see is that you NEED to be correct all of the time. Just saying. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, as are you.
Quoting 1090. Lonewulf:


Sorry, but what 'accepted science' seeing as how Scientist themselves can't even agree on whether there's GW or not, whether it's been as rapid as predicted or not, or even if we are in a Global Cooling period as of now. There is no Scientific community consensus on GW, only debate, much like this blog. SI wasn't putting words into anyone's mouth, she was questioning those coming out.


Evidence? Because your statement is untrue.
"That humans are causing global warming is the position of the Academies of Science from 19 countries plus many scientific organizations that study climate science. More specifically, around 95% of active climate researchers actively publishing climate papers endorse the consensus position."

Link
Quoting 1083. 69Viking:


That's your opinion. Scientists are now debating the rate of warming over the past 15 years. Multiple news reports have stated the earth has not warmed nearly as much as the U.N.'s IPCC panel predited it would.
Did you look at the chart in 1069? That's data, not "news reports".
Quoting 1092. SecretStormNerd:


The only problem I see is that you NEED to be correct all of the time. Just saying. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, as are you.


When we keep thinking of science as opinion, we get to keep the false debate going. Whatever.
Quoting 1092. SecretStormNerd:


The only problem I see is that you NEED to be correct all of the time. Just saying. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, as are you.
Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts.
Quoting 1086. congaline:
GW is not conjecture it is fact. Denial is not a river in Egypt. Ignore at your own peril and prepare to gobble crow, because as time continues the facts will become clear even to the people who still think the earth is flat.


Ok Conga. Can I make a soup with that crow? I ned something warm.

Quoting 1093. Naga5000:


Evidence? Because your statement is untrue.
"That humans are causing global warming is the position of the Academies of Science from 19 countries plus many scientific organizations that study climate science. More specifically, around 95% of active climate researchers actively publishing climate papers endorse the consensus position."

Link


Sorry but the website 'Skeptical Science' is hardly a trustworthy source. We can have this argument all day long with each of us posting refuting views from various sites, each decrying the other's validity. I refuse to get into it, you just need to accept that not everyone accepts that GW is real, or if it is real, that's it the threat some believe, or that it's happening as rapidly, etc... ad nauseum.

There is *NO* undeniable verifiable proof that GW does or does NOT exist, therefor there will continue to be debate and dissention on the topic. Accept that and allow others to have the opinion they are entitled to, even if you disagree.
1100. Torito
Geez global warming fights again, like every Tuesday for some reason....
1101. FOREX
Quoting 1100. Torito:
Geez global warming fights again, like every Tuesday for some reason....


There should be a GW blog somewhere.
Big time rain coming into WPB now!
Quoting 1100. Torito:
Geez global warming fights again, like every Tuesday for some reason....


LOL. Sorry I always get dragged into them. I'll stop. Back to weather...
Quoting 1099. Lonewulf:


Sorry but the website 'Skeptical Science' is hardly a trustworthy source. We can have this argument all day long with each of us posting refuting views from various sites, each decrying the other's validity. I refuse to get into it, you just need to accept that not everyone accepts that GW is real, or if it is real, that's it the threat some believe, or that it's happening as rapidly, etc... ad nauseum.

There is *NO* undeniable verifiable proof that GW does or does NOT exist, therefor there will continue to be debate and dissention on the topic. Accept that and allow others to have the opinion they are entitled to, even if you disagree.


First, claiming skeptical science as not a valid source is absurd, considering they actually link to the papers to back up their statements. But that's another issue.

""It might be helpful for you to think a bit more logically about the statement "I don't believe in AGW". Among scientists, what you call "AGW" is simply the net result of the following chain of concepts:
- Humans burn fossil fuels.
- Burning fossil fuels produces CO2 [currently ~9.5 Pg C per year].
- About half of that CO2 remains in the atmosphere [the "airborne fraction"].
- Adding CO2 to the atmosphere raises its concentration in the atmosphere [currently ~400 ppmv].
- CO2 in the atmosphere absorbs longwave infrared radiation.
- The earth's energy budget is determined by the balance between absorbed shortwave solar radiation minus emitted longwave infrared radiation.
- In the absence of positive or negative feedbacks, increasing the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere reduces outgoing longwave radiation and raises the temperature by 1C per doubling.
- This pre-feedback climate sensitivity will be reduced by negative feedbacks and increased by positive feedbacks. It can only be reduced to ~0 if the net effect of all feedbacks is sufficiently negative to stabilize climate in the face of forcings.
- The record of past climate changes (e.g., glacial/interglacial cycles) shows that net feedbacks within the earth system are not sufficiently negative to prevent large swings in climate.

"Every one of these is well established, from chemistry or physics in the case of steps 2 through 8, or from the geosciences in steps 1 and 9. Add them all up and you have "AGW".

"So ... which specific part of the process do you "disbelieve"?""
1105. help4u
How is the record southern sea ice and cooler ocean temps affecting global warming,that is the question?lol!!!!!!
1106. will40
Quoting 1101. FOREX:


There should be a GW blog somewhere.


there is but i guess they cant bicker enough over there so they come here
Quoting 1100. Torito:
Geez global warming fights again, like every Tuesday for some reason....


I'm not debating the validity of GW, I've made that clear more than once. My argument today is to allow everyone their opinion, even if it disagrees with your own. There is no absolute scientific proof one way or the other, for every study for, there's one against, etc...

Read the studies, decide for your self, debate all you want, just understand others may have a differing opinion, and they are just as entitled to it as you are to yours.
Another point; assuming the system does form, in terms of the precipitation issues and current forecasts, post-landfall trajectory will be a big factor once it gets inland. Anyone caught in the training bands can be in for much more rain and flooding than other folks at or closer to the landfall location of the low.

From the standpoint of the Florida Panhandle/Big Bend, TS Faye gave the Tallahassee region around 20 inches of rain (due to the training effect) after going inland and I have seen other Gulf lows/Tropical Storms make landfall at or near the Big Bend with minimal impacts near the center but with most of rain and wind displaced away from the COC on the E-NE quadrant impacting the Peninsula to the East.

In any event, someone is going to be in for lots of rain and flooding but too early to know exactly where due to the complex nature of forecast conditions in the Gulf 5-6 days out at this point.
1109. Torito
Humberto:



Ingrid:



Manuel:



95L:



T-wave:

1110. ncstorm
Quoting 1100. Torito:
Geez global warming fights again, like every Tuesday for some reason....


didn't you know..its buy one fight and get the other 1/2 off Tuesday..

1111. VR46L
Quoting 1101. FOREX:


There should be a GW blog somewhere.


There is but they have no one to fight with there ..

Link

1112. Torito
Quoting 1107. Lonewulf:


I'm not debating the validity of GW, I've made that clear more than once. My argument today is to allow everyone their opinion, even if it disagrees with your own. There is no absolute scientific proof one way or the other, for every study for, there's one against, etc...

Read the studies, decide for your self, debate all you want, just understand others may have a differing opinion, and they are just as entitled to it as you are to yours.


Instead of debating over GW exists, why not just debate how fast warming/cooling is actually occurring...
Only on WU, yup, this must be the place. The surest way to tell there's not much going on in the tropics when the blog is full of AGW diatribe.

Have a good day, all. Try not to shoot one another. ;)
Quoting 1104. Naga5000:


First, claiming skeptical science as not a valid source is absurd, considering they actually link to the papers to back up their statements. But that's another issue.

""It might be helpful for you to think a bit more logically about the statement "I don't believe in AGW". Among scientists, what you call "AGW" is simply the net result of the following chain of concepts:
- Humans burn fossil fuels.
- Burning fossil fuels produces CO2 [currently ~9.5 Pg C per year].
- About half of that CO2 remains in the atmosphere [the "airborne fraction"].
- Adding CO2 to the atmosphere raises its concentration in the atmosphere [currently ~400 ppmv].
- CO2 in the atmosphere absorbs longwave infrared radiation.
- The earth's energy budget is determined by the balance between absorbed shortwave solar radiation minus emitted longwave infrared radiation.
- In the absence of positive or negative feedbacks, increasing the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere reduces outgoing longwave radiation and raises the temperature by 1C per doubling.
- This pre-feedback climate sensitivity will be reduced by negative feedbacks and increased by positive feedbacks. It can only be reduced to ~0 if the net effect of all feedbacks is sufficiently negative to stabilize climate in the face of forcings.
- The record of past climate changes (e.g., glacial/interglacial cycles) shows that net feedbacks within the earth system are not sufficiently negative to prevent large swings in climate.

"Every one of these is well established, from chemistry or physics in the case of steps 2 through 8, or from the geosciences in steps 1 and 9. Add them all up and you have "AGW".

"So ... which specific part of the process do you "disbelieve"?""


Ever visited either the Democratic National Party or Republican National Party homepages? How about a candidate for an office? They post all kinds of links to articles, etc... that supports their point of view. They are biased by their own beliefs and will not post dissenting information on their own sites. That is why I say that Skeptical Science is an invalid source, they are biased on GW. They don't post any contrary views. But enough of this, believe what you want, I will not debate whether or not GW exists with you, I stand by every other statement I've made today - everyone is entitled to their opinion like you are, don't call them out on it.
1115. StormWx
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
It wouldn't surprise me if we had a pretty strong system in the GULF come this weekend. The only track that makes sense right now is the bend NE as a upper trough cuts off near New Orleans creating steering out of the SW for 95L. Very different set than the one we had with Ingrid.


Hmm, maybe you are just wishing the storm your way? lol :o) seems as the esembles and models are pointing towards a BOC/Mexico landfall. Unless you are using the Wekiva model :o)

Quoting 1101. FOREX:


There should be a GW blog somewhere.
Quoting 1106. will40:


there is but i guess they cant bicker enough over there so they come here


Nice guys, really. When people post misleading "science" here on Dr. Master's blog. Not a word is said, only when other users attempt to correct the misinformation do you get all angry about it.


You do know that those who post on Dr. Rood's blog also frequently post on Dr. Master's right? Last time I checked we weren't sent off to some obscure corner of weather underground and only allowed to post there.
1117. ncstorm
ex 98L on the 6z HWRF..



Quoting 1115. StormWx:


Hmm, maybe you are just wishing the storm your way? lol :o) seems as the esembles and models are pointing towards a BOC/Mexico landfall. Unless you are using the Wekiva model :o)



That looks more like a complete U-turn on its way to Mehicoo and back into the BOC
1119. Torito
Polar low again.

1120. hydrus
Quoting 1036. Xyrus2000:


Except climate projections call for fewer hurricanes in a warmer world due to increasingly unfavorable conditions (such as increased wind shear).

0 points for style. 0 points for originality. 10 points for trolling. Better luck next time.



I read ( somewhere ) that there would be ( for a period of time ) larger and more intense storms in the Atlantic and other basins due to oceans and land areas warming and the substantial amounts of cold and iced areas at the poles. Eventually, ( when all here will not be here ) and Earth warms further, the need for Earth to relieve her steam kettle in the tropics will be much less needed, as everything starts to even out tempwise.
Quoting 1106. will40:


there is but i guess they cant bicker enough over there so they come here
Actually, the people who reject AGW science don't come on Dr Rood's blog very often. They don't really want to "debate" or discuss. They would rather start an argument over here where they have an audience and maybe some backup.
95Ls LLC seems to have stalled slowly moving Sward
I think the circulation will continues to stall and eventually start moving NNE-NE IMO
1123. Torito
Quoting 1095. Naga5000:


When we keep thinking of science as opinion, we get to keep the false debate going. Whatever.


What I love is how the "Scientist" you refer to are always 100% correct. As I have said in many posts about this ridiculous discussion, It's all based on theory...Again, there are MANY "Scientists" who believe that UFO's, Big Foot and the Loch ness Monster are real.....Are we to believe them as well??
What is the cause of the warming then?

1126. Torito
Clouds moving over TX, maybe they will get lucky and get some rain..

Quoting 1104. Naga5000:


First, claiming skeptical science as not a valid source is absurd, considering they actually link to the papers to back up their statements. But that's another issue.

""It might be helpful for you to think a bit more logically about the statement "I don't believe in AGW". Among scientists, what you call "AGW" is simply the net result of the following chain of concepts:
- Humans burn fossil fuels.
- Burning fossil fuels produces CO2 [currently ~9.5 Pg C per year].
- About half of that CO2 remains in the atmosphere [the "airborne fraction"].
- Adding CO2 to the atmosphere raises its concentration in the atmosphere [currently ~400 ppmv].
- CO2 in the atmosphere absorbs longwave infrared radiation.
- The earth's energy budget is determined by the balance between absorbed shortwave solar radiation minus emitted longwave infrared radiation.
- In the absence of positive or negative feedbacks, increasing the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere reduces outgoing longwave radiation and raises the temperature by 1C per doubling.
- This pre-feedback climate sensitivity will be reduced by negative feedbacks and increased by positive feedbacks. It can only be reduced to ~0 if the net effect of all feedbacks is sufficiently negative to stabilize climate in the face of forcings.
- The record of past climate changes (e.g., glacial/interglacial cycles) shows that net feedbacks within the earth system are not sufficiently negative to prevent large swings in climate.

"Every one of these is well established, from chemistry or physics in the case of steps 2 through 8, or from the geosciences in steps 1 and 9. Add them all up and you have "AGW".

"So ... which specific part of the process do you "disbelieve"?""
You know, Naga, when you or Scott or someone else posts this question, I've never seen anybody respond except by dismissing it as a bunch of words and then running in the opposite direction.
1128. StormWx
Quoting SteveDa1:
What is the cause of the warming then?



The Sun. :o)
1129. Torito
Quoting 1128. StormWx:


The Sun. :o)



Naa, Santa got tired of the cold and turned on the heater. :P
Quoting 1124. cat6band:


What I love is how the "Scientist" you refer to are always 100% correct. As I have said in many posts about this ridiculous discussion, It's all based on theory...Again, there are MANY "Scientists" who believe that UFO's, Big Foot and the Loch ness Monster are real.....Are we to believe them as well??
Well, I guess you have no answer for 1104 either.

You are entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts.
Quoting 1110. ncstorm:


didn't you know..its buy one fight and get the other 1/2 off Tuesday..



dang..i thought it was buy one get the next one for freeee...
1132. help4u
Big foot and Nessie do exist 95% of science community agree!Remember the earth is 1 million degrees hot that could cause global warming .Algore 2007.
1133. StormWx
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


That looks more like a complete U-turn on its way to Mehicoo and back into the BOC


Yeah right now the models are having a tough time deciphering where 95L will go once it reaches the BOC. It could go into Mehico, or it could go North, but to say it could be a powerful storm in the GOM right now is a bit pre-mature :)
Quoting 1124. cat6band:


What I love is how the "Scientist" you refer to are always 100% correct. As I have said in many posts about this ridiculous discussion, It's all based on theory...Again, there are MANY "Scientists" who believe that UFO's, Big Foot and the Loch ness Monster are real.....Are we to believe them as well??


False equivalency. A scientific theory, such as AGW has observable and testable evidence to back it up.

"A scientific theory summarizes a hypothesis or group of hypotheses that have been supported with repeated testing. If enough evidence accumulates to support a hypothesis, it moves to the next step known as a theory in the scientific method and becomes accepted as a valid explanation of a phenomenon."

So, if there is any evidence to the hypothesis of the existence of Big Foot and Old Nessie, we can move on from there. Until then, that is just a hypothesis and not a scientific theory.
Quoting 1127. FLwolverine:
You know, Naga, when you or Scott or someone else posts this question, I've never seen anybody respond except by dismissing it as a bunch of words and then running in the opposite direction.


Bingo.
1136. Torito
The next tropical system? :P

Quoting 1107. Lonewulf:


I'm not debating the validity of GW, I've made that clear more than once. My argument today is to allow everyone their opinion, even if it disagrees with your own. There is no absolute scientific proof one way or the other, for every study for, there's one against, etc...

Read the studies, decide for your self, debate all you want, just understand others may have a differing opinion, and they are just as entitled to it as you are to yours.


When the IPCC releases AR5 Sept. 27th it should clear some things up. GW is naturally happening to the Earth but I think people are going to be surprised to find out it's not warming nearly as fast as man caused GW supporters would like you to think. That's all I'm going to say on the subject today, just not worth it to argue with some people.
1138. help4u
The sun warms the planet?who have thought that?Can we all agree on this?lol
1139. Torito
Look at all that dry air south of humberto :P (orange/red)

Quoting 1134. Naga5000:


False equivalency. A scientific theory, such as AGW has observable and testable evidence to back it up.

"A scientific theory summarizes a hypothesis or group of hypotheses that have been supported with repeated testing. If enough evidence accumulates to support a hypothesis, it moves to the next step known as a theory in the scientific method and becomes accepted as a valid explanation of a phenomenon."

So, if there is any evidence to the hypothesis of the existence of Big Foot and Old Nessie, we can move on from there. Until then, that is just a hypothesis and not a scientific theory.


Have you watched Discovery lately? They have done shows on Big Foot, UFO's and even MERMAIDS!! With PLENTY of " evidence" to back up their theory....It's all ridiculous, I'm not trying to change your stance....but don't try to change mine either with your "Scientific Evidence".....
Legitimate question to all GW deniers...do you believe the poisons left behind by our burning of fossil fuels simply dissipate without any sort of impact? Do you really believe that your actions, and those of others in developed, petroleum dependent nations, have no influence? And do any of you have a true scientific background? In other words, what professional credentials do you bring to this discussion? Truly, I would respect your opinion if you could actually provide real evidence, not what you heard on Fox News or in US News or some other "trustworthy" news source.
1142. Torito
Dry air moving towards the north GOM, it could act like a natural hurricane shield if it can stay there.

Here we go.. again

Was supposed to be heading to Playa Del Carmen this Friday - Wed. Any chance the rain/disturbance can move entirely in BOC by that time and dry up the Eastern Yucatan or should I consider canceling?

Rain and/or solid clouds don't make for a good vacation.

Any help/advice greatly appreciated.
Quoting 1134. Naga5000:


False equivalency. A scientific theory, such as AGW has observable and testable evidence to back it up.

"A scientific theory summarizes a hypothesis or group of hypotheses that have been supported with repeated testing. If enough evidence accumulates to support a hypothesis, it moves to the next step known as a theory in the scientific method and becomes accepted as a valid explanation of a phenomenon."

So, if there is any evidence to the hypothesis of the existence of Big Foot and Old Nessie, we can move on from there. Until then, that is just a hypothesis and not a scientific theory.


Did you steal this information from my science class? lol
I'm a certified Science teacher and find myself saying things very similar to your post. lol
"They post all kinds of links to articles, etc.... that supports (sic) their point of view."
Articles appearing in the Wall Street Journal, USA Today, or the Daily Mail are not peer reviewed and should not be considered as reliable sources of scientific information.







1147. scott39
Goodmorning all, Weather related events have been here since the beginning of its creation. In the last century man has helped speed them up, but dont fool yourself into thinking that man is the one in control. The Earths population explosion and consumption of its materials, is "pissing" it off. It was not designed to handle this load, so its going to "fix" the problem. Everyone has there own idea about how that is going to happen. If your looking for man to fix a problem that is past its solution, then your are delusional. The perfect example..... all the petty arguing of your points and our politicians, is like the beating of a dead horse.
1148. ncstorm
Quoting 1131. WaterWitch11:


dang..i thought it was buy one get the next one for freeee...


no, thats friday..
1149. Torito
Quoting 1148. ncstorm:


no, thats friday..


And Monday is when all the "2013 hurricane season was terrible" fans come out...
not sure about the wekiva model but i think we should expect alot of rain and maybe a little wind. e cen fl
1151. Torito
IMO Humberto is barely a TC now...

Quoting 1147. scott39:
Goodmorning all, Weather related events have been here since the beginning of its creation. In the last century man has helped speed them up, but dont fool yourself into thinking that man is the one in control. The Earths population explosion and consumption of its materials, is "pissing" it off. It was not designed to handle this load, so its going to "fix" the problem. Everyone has there own idea about how that is going to happen. If your looking for man to fix a problem that is past its solution, then your are delusional. The perfect example..... all the petty arguing of your points and our politicians, is like the beating of a dead horse.


I can't hear you... :P

Quoting 1143. DavidHOUTX:
Here we go.. again



And "aint" coming to TX...again
1154. Torito
Ingrid appears to now be a TD with 30MPH max wind speeds.

1155. scott39
Quoting 1152. CaneHunter031472:


I can't hear you... :P

Lol
Statement as of 10:15 AM EDT on September 17, 2013


The National Weather Service in Miami has issued an

* Urban Flood Advisory for...
east central Palm Beach County in Southeast Florida...
this includes the cities of... West Palm Beach... Lake Worth...
Boynton Beach...

* until 1215 PM EDT

* at 1012 am EDT... National Weather Service radar indicated
torrential rainfall extending from Wellington to Lake Worth to
Boynton Beach... moving slowly westward but training repeatedly over
the same area.

Radar estimates 1-3 inches of rain have fallen this morning... and
additional amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible in the advised area.

Most flood deaths occur in automobiles. Never drive your vehicle into
areas where the water covers the roadway. Flood waters are usually
deeper than they appear. When encountering flooded roads make the
smart choice... turn around... dont drown.
1157. Torito
Quoting 1156. SFLWeatherman:
Statement as of 10:15 AM EDT on September 17, 2013


The National Weather Service in Miami has issued an

* Urban Flood Advisory for...
east central Palm Beach County in Southeast Florida...
this includes the cities of... West Palm Beach... Lake Worth...
Boynton Beach...

* until 1215 PM EDT

* at 1012 am EDT... National Weather Service radar indicated
torrential rainfall extending from Wellington to Lake Worth to
Boynton Beach... moving slowly westward but training repeatedly over
the same area.

Radar estimates 1-3 inches of rain have fallen this morning... and
additional amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible in the advised area.

Most flood deaths occur in automobiles. Never drive your vehicle into
areas where the water covers the roadway. Flood waters are usually
deeper than they appear. When encountering flooded roads make the
smart choice... turn around... dont drown.


1158. Torito
any rain that tries to fall in TX is just evaporating...

1159. Torito
Rather interesting storm path that humberto produced...



I am leaning more and more in the direction that 95L will go straight into Mexico and anything heading Northeast will be baroclinically induced along the frontal boundary. The Cape Verde Season is winding down and hopefully with all these troughs dropping down the westerlies can take over the Gulf pretty soon and end this season early. That's the best thing that can happen.
Quoting 1138. help4u:
The sun warms the planet?who have thought that?Can we all agree on this?lol


Really? What is responsible for ensuring that the energy from the sun does not radiate back out into space?

The moon is warmed by the sun, how does that compare to the earth?
1162. Torito
2013 Hurricane Season History so far:

1163. Torito
2009 for comparison:

Quoting 1163. Torito:
2009 for comparison:


Quite different than current season
Quoting 1153. RitaEvac:


And "aint" coming to TX...again

That high pressure system needs to get its A** out of here. Pardon my language lol we need this system.
1166. pcola57
Quoting 1126. Torito:
Clouds moving over TX, maybe they will get lucky and get some rain..


Good Morning All..
Texas getting spotty rain..
Places like Abliene,Wichita Falls,Dallas/Ft. Worth,Midland/Odessa,Lubbock ect..
Looking hard to get moisture their way..
Water tables are low / to extremely low..again..
Both Amarillo and Lubbock have drilling projects ongoing..

On another note..
I see from checking back on the blog..
That alot of bloggers are being criticized for having a opinion on AGW..
As a blogger who realizes that we each are entitled to express our own opinions..
And that from non-confrontational discussions comes understanding and tolerance in this very diverse world..
I am concerned that close-mindedness will effect our great blog / and world for that matter, in such a way
that only people that agree with each other will prevail and "to be human" is looked on with dis-dane..
Our we bigger than ourselves?
Should those with the largest ego's rain supreme?
WU is a great blogging experience when the members take responsibility for what they post..
And diversity is allowed to flourish..

I take responsibility for what I post as best as I can and try to enjoy they texture of our conversations and information sharing..As there is yet a season do endure so to un-clogg Dr. Masters blog..
I offer up My blog and WU mail and are available to any wishing to discuss my views..


Thanks for taking the time.. :)

Back to weather..







1167. Torito
Quoting 1164. wunderkidcayman:

Quite different than current season



Yea, I wouldn't be surprised if 2013 is setting the tone for future seasons, and eventually the tropical seasons will not have (strong) hurricanes.
1168. hydrus
Quoting 1141. ProphetessofDoom:
Legitimate question to all GW deniers...do you believe the poisons left behind by our burning of fossil fuels simply dissipate without any sort of impact? Do you really believe that your actions, and those of others in developed, petroleum dependent nations, have no influence? And do any of you have a true scientific background? In other words, what professional credentials do you bring to this discussion? Truly, I would respect your opinion if you could actually provide real evidence, not what you heard on Fox News or in US News or some other "trustworthy" news source.
There is a tremendous amount of pollution on the Earth, and it comes not just from fossil fuels, but factories of all kinds. Some of the toxic waste from these factories is so dangerous, even getting near it can kill someone. Love Canal in the late 70,s was probably the worst example I have ever seen in the U.S. killing innocent men, women and children suffering from all types of cancers and birth defects. In December of 1984, many here will remember The Union Carbide Disaster in Bhopal,India killing thousands in one night while they slept.


Bhopal disaster

The Bhopal disaster was an industrial disaster that took place at a Union Carbide India Limited pesticide plant in the Indian city of Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh. Around midnight on 3 December 1984, methyl isocyanate (MIC) gas was accidentally released from the plant, exposing more than 500,000 people to MIC and other chemicals. The government of Madhya Pradesh confirmed a total of 3,787 deaths related to the gas release. It left an estimated 40,000 individuals permanently disabled, maimed, or suffering from serious illness, making it one of the world's worst industrial disasters in history. Union Carbide was sued by the Government of India and agreed to an out-of-court settlement of US$470 million in 1989. The plant site cleanup and India's demand for the extradition of then-Union Carbide CEO Warren Anderson are yet to be resolved....Link


This Link is a good read about a horrible situation from pollution and what it does to human beings..

The Love Canal came from the last name of William T. Love, who in the early 1890s envisioned a canal connecting the Niagara River to Lake Ontario. He believed it would serve the area's burgeoning industries with much needed hydro electricity; however, the power scheme was never completed due to limitations of direct current (DC) power transmission, and Tesla's introduction of alternating current (AC). Furthermore, the Panic of 1893 caused investors to drop sponsorship of the project. Also, Congress passed a law barring the removal of water from the Niagara River, to preserve Niagara Falls. After 1892, Love's plan changed to incorporate a shipping lane that would bypass the Niagara Falls, reaching Lake Ontario. He envisioned a perfect urban area called "Model City" and prepared a plan with a community of parks and homes along Lake Ontario. His plan was never realized. He began digging the canal and built a few streets and homes when his funds were depleted. Only one mile (1.6 km) of the canal, about 50 feet (15 m) wide and 10 to 40 feet (3 m to 12 m) deep, stretching northward from the Niagara River, was dug.

There is little information about those who actually worked for Love. Canal building was exhausting, dirty and often dangerous. Immigrants usually performed this arduous work, along with removing all trees and vegetation.

With the project abandoned, the canal gradually filled with water. The local children swam there in the summer and skated in the winter. In the 1920s, the canal became a dump site for the City of Niagara Falls, with the city regularly unloading its municipal refuse into the pit. In the 1940s, the U.S. Army began using the site to dump wastes from the war effort during World War II, including some nuclear waste from the Manhattan Project, the rest of which was dumped in nearby Lewiston, New York at the Niagara Falls Storage Site.[citation needed]

By the 1940s, Hooker Electrochemical Company (later known as Hooker Chemical Company), founded by Elon Hooker, began searching for a place to dump the large quantity of chemical waste it was producing. Hooker was granted permission by the Niagara Power and Development Company in 1942 to dump wastes in the canal. The canal was drained and lined with thick clay. Into this site, Hooker began placing 55-US-gallon (210 L) metal or fibre barrels. In 1947, Hooker bought the canal and the 70-foot-wide (21 m) banks on either side of the canal. The City of Niagara Falls and the army continued the dumping of refuse.

In 1948, after World War II had ended and the City of Niagara Falls had ended self-sufficient disposal of refuse, Hooker became the sole user and owner of the site.

This dumpsite was in operation until 1953. During this time, 21,000 tons of chemicals such as "caustics, alkalines, fatty acids and chlorinated hydrocarbons from the manufacturing of dyes, perfumes, solvents for rubber and synthetic resins" were added. These chemicals were buried at a depth of twenty to twenty-five feet. After 1953, the canal was covered with soil, and vegetation began to grow atop the dumpsite...Wiki
The Love Canal Disaster...Link
Quoting 1112. Torito:


Instead of debating over GW exists, why not just debate how fast warming/cooling is actually occurring...

OR...now that we FINALLY have a little bit of tropical weather to talk about, why don't we just drop the GW BS and focus on the tropics!
1170. VR46L
95L seems to be hitting Day time troubles early...

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1172. Torito
Wondering if humberto will stay a TS in the next update from the NHC...
I always find it amusing that those who whine the most when someone mentions climate change in a blog entry about tropical-weather are the very same people who whine the most when Dr. Masters actually posts a blog entry about climate change. And by the same token, while they remain adamant that no one post a climate change comment under a tropical weather entry, they have no problem whatsoever posting tropical weather comments under climate change entries. And also along the same lines, why do so many defend as free speech the right of some to spew anti-science nonsense, while at the same time constantly telling those who would combat that nonsense to shut up and go elsewhere?

Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?

Okay, maybe it's not so much amusing as it is sad... ;-)
I say the active part of the season is just beginning Sept Oct Nov we will see more storms stronger storm and landfalling storms during them months
allison type rains with leftover ingrid
Invest 95L should take a straightforward track into Mexico given the high presure over the Southeast. However, its remnant moisture should combine with a stalled out frontal boundary that may lead to the development of a pseudo-tropical low over the central Gulf that heads towards the western coast of Florida. A weak nor'easter-like system, really.

Josephine 1996 redux?
1177. auspiv
Quoting 1168. hydrus:
There is a tremendous amount of pollution on the Earth, and it comes not just from fossil fuels, but factories of all kinds. Some of the toxic waste from these factories is so dangerous, even getting near it can kill someone. Love Canal in the late 70,s was probably the worst example I have ever seen in the U.S. killing innocent men, women and children suffering from all types of cancers and birth defects. In December of 1984, many here will remember The Union Carbide Disaster in Bhopal,India killing thousands in one night while they slept.


Bhopal disaster

The Bhopal disaster was an industrial disaster that took place at a Union Carbide India Limited pesticide plant in the Indian city of Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh. Around midnight on 3 December 1984, methyl isocyanate (MIC) gas was accidentally released from the plant, exposing more than 500,000 people to MIC and other chemicals. The government of Madhya Pradesh confirmed a total of 3,787 deaths related to the gas release. It left an estimated 40,000 individuals permanently disabled, maimed, or suffering from serious illness, making it one of the world's worst industrial disasters in history. Union Carbide was sued by the Government of India and agreed to an out-of-court settlement of US$470 million in 1989. The plant site cleanup and India's demand for the extradition of then-Union Carbide CEO Warren Anderson are yet to be resolved....Link


This Link is a good read about a horrible situation from pollution and what it does to human beings..

The Love Canal came from the last name of William T. Love, who in the early 1890s envisioned a canal connecting the Niagara River to Lake Ontario. He believed it would serve the area's burgeoning industries with much needed hydro electricity; however, the power scheme was never completed due to limitations of direct current (DC) power transmission, and Tesla's introduction of alternating current (AC). Furthermore, the Panic of 1893 caused investors to drop sponsorship of the project. Also, Congress passed a law barring the removal of water from the Niagara River, to preserve Niagara Falls. After 1892, Love's plan changed to incorporate a shipping lane that would bypass the Niagara Falls, reaching Lake Ontario. He envisioned a perfect urban area called "Model City" and prepared a plan with a community of parks and homes along Lake Ontario. His plan was never realized. He began digging the canal and built a few streets and homes when his funds were depleted. Only one mile (1.6 km) of the canal, about 50 feet (15 m) wide and 10 to 40 feet (3 m to 12 m) deep, stretching northward from the Niagara River, was dug.

There is little information about those who actually worked for Love. Canal building was exhausting, dirty and often dangerous. Immigrants usually performed this arduous work, along with removing all trees and vegetation.

With the project abandoned, the canal gradually filled with water. The local children swam there in the summer and skated in the winter. In the 1920s, the canal became a dump site for the City of Niagara Falls, with the city regularly unloading its municipal refuse into the pit. In the 1940s, the U.S. Army began using the site to dump wastes from the war effort during World War II, including some nuclear waste from the Manhattan Project, the rest of which was dumped in nearby Lewiston, New York at the Niagara Falls Storage Site.[citation needed]

By the 1940s, Hooker Electrochemical Company (later known as Hooker Chemical Company), founded by Elon Hooker, began searching for a place to dump the large quantity of chemical waste it was producing. Hooker was granted permission by the Niagara Power and Development Company in 1942 to dump wastes in the canal. The canal was drained and lined with thick clay. Into this site, Hooker began placing 55-US-gallon (210 L) metal or fibre barrels. In 1947, Hooker bought the canal and the 70-foot-wide (21 m) banks on either side of the canal. The City of Niagara Falls and the army continued the dumping of refuse.

In 1948, after World War II had ended and the City of Niagara Falls had ended self-sufficient disposal of refuse, Hooker became the sole user and owner of the site.

This dumpsite was in operation until 1953. During this time, 21,000 tons of chemicals such as "caustics, alkalines, fatty acids and chlorinated hydrocarbons from the manufacturing of dyes, perfumes, solvents for rubber and synthetic resins" were added. These chemicals were buried at a depth of twenty to twenty-five feet. After 1953, the canal was covered with soil, and vegetation began to grow atop the dumpsite...Wiki
The Love Canal Disaster...Link

Not a single word you just posted answered the question posed by ProphetessofDoom.
G'morning from Central OK,

Grey an gloomy at the moment, but should clear out by early afternoon. Kind of matches my mood . . . as i woke up not entirely feeling well today.

Here, the story was a tale of have and have nots. Rain fell throughout 2/3's of the state, but the majority of it was light - unless a storm happened to form just overhead. Officially, OKC got 0.0 in (as measured at the airport) but just to the north 1-2 inches fell.

All in all, those that did get it, needed it the most.



Forecast - just as I post this - Dr. JM will post his. We seem to be on the same schedule lately :)

Have a good day, don't let the AGWers* get you down!

* It may be what you think, then again it may not :)
Sticks head in, looks around decides its not safe., backs out slowly....
1180. Ed22
Invest 95L is some trouble today because land mass is involved in. The system could become a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours over the GOM moving towards Florida this week end into early next week as strong tropical storm or a category 2 hurricane not a hybrid tropical system. So tropical depression or tropical storm Jerry on the way, so weather blogger what your say on this.
Quoting 1116. Naga5000:


Nice guys, really. When people post misleading "science" here on Dr. Master's blog. Not a word is said, only when other users attempt to correct the misinformation do you get all angry about it.


You do know that those who post on Dr. Rood's blog also frequently post on Dr. Master's right? Last time I checked we weren't sent off to some obscure corner of weather underground and only allowed to post there.
I had a vision of all of you sitting in a corner with round coned hats but all I could make out was the D on the hat because you were all forced to turn towards the wall....

Follow the money trail!
It will lead you right to OIL.

And we aint gettin off of it soon enough because they want us to be DIVIDED so they can cram more regulations down our throat!
Arguing on here about it is USELESS.
Quoting 1083. 69Viking:


That's your opinion. Scientists are now debating the rate of warming over the past 15 years. Multiple news reports have stated the earth has not warmed nearly as much as the U.N.'s IPCC panel predited it would.

Multiple news reports mean zero scientifically. One paper looked at one model suite over a short time period. That is not "the U.N.'s IPCC panel."

1183. hydrus
Quoting 1177. auspiv:

Not a single word you just posted answered the question posed by ProphetessofDoom.
I wasnt finished..Forgive me for posting it too soon as I have to rush most times. My point was going to be that our infrastructure the way it is now with fossil fuels, and the huge money that these folks are making ( mostly do to greed ) will be hard to overcome, but eventually, fossil fuels will not be needed, and the big companies will either find alternatives to keep things running, or simply go out of business. The pollution game is one factories ( all kinds ) have been playing for a very long time. There are ones who pollute in ways hard to find, or it can been done for the least amount of money by simply dumping anywhere because they will save millions paying the fine as opposed to disposing of it properly.
Quoting 1158. Torito:
any rain that tries to fall in TX is just evaporating...



Tell me about it! Yesterday I was watching the radar at home and see this nice storm heading my way, so I tell my wife to get ready for a little bit of rain and just when the storm is getting closer it split in two going around my area without a single drop for us :(
My wife starts laughing and says time to go out and water the grass...
Quoting 1184. Hou77083:


Tell me about it! Yesterday I was watching the radar at home and see this nice storm heading my way, so I tell my wife to get ready for a little bit of rain and just when the storm is getting closer it split in two going around my area without a single drop for us :(
My wife starts laughing and says time to go out and water the grass...
there is a new entry up by the doc
where is invest 95L GOING??
Steering pattern like this screams Opal in terms of track.