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Hurricane Ingrid and Tropical Storm Manuel Drench Mexico, Killing 5

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:09 PM GMT on September 15, 2013

Dangerous Hurricane Ingrid weakened Sunday morning, and is barely a hurricane, but the storm's heavy rains remain a major threat to Eastern Mexico. Sunday morning wind data from the Hurricane Hunters showed the highest surface winds in Ingrid were just below hurricane force, and it appears that upper-level outflow from Tropical Storm Manuel to its west may have increased wind shear over Ingrid, causing weakening. Ingrid is still embedded in a very moist environment with high ocean temperatures, making re-intensification likely if the wind shear drops, which appears likely, as Manual weakens after making landfall on Sunday afternoon. Satellite loops show that Ingrid is a relatively small storm, and has changed little in size today. The storm's heaviest rains were offshore Sunday morning, as seen on Mexican radar. Flooding from Hurricane Ingrid has already killed two people in Mexico, and Tropical Storm Manuel's floods have killed three people, according to CNN.

Ingrid is the second hurricane of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, and the hurricane's peak intensity of 85 mph winds on Saturday tied it with Hurricane Humberto as the strongest hurricane of the 2013 season so far. Ingrid's intensification into a hurricane on September 14 came eighteen days later than the usual appearance of the Atlantic's second hurricane of the season, which is August 28.


Figure 1. Rainfall for the 24-hour period ending at 8 am EDT September 14, 2013. Rainfall amounts in excess of five inches (red colors) affected portions of Mexico. Image credit: Conagua.

Forecast for Ingrid
All of the models predict that a ridge of high pressure building in to Ingrid's north will force the storm nearly due west into the coast of Mexico on Monday. The soils along the Mexican Gulf Coast in the state of Veracruz where Ingrid will be dumping its heaviest rains are already saturated from the rains of Tropical Depression Eight and Tropical Storm Fernand, and the expected 10 - 15 inches of rain, with isolated amounts of up to 25", will cause extremely dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. On the other side of Mexico, Tropical Storm Manuel will be making landfall on Sunday afternoon, and will bring similar prodigious amounts of rainfall.


Figure 2. Ingrid's rainfall amounts may rival those of Hurricane Alex, which struck Mexico north of Tampico as a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds in 2010. Extremely heavy rains of up to 35" fell mainly on the Mexican side of the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo, particularly near Monterrey, where rainfall amounts were historic. The hurricane left 51 people dead or missing in Eastern Mexico, and damage was $1.8 billion. Flooding along the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo was the worst seen since 1960. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Ingrid's impact on Texas
In South Texas, Ingrid has already brought a storm surge of one foot to South Padre Island, where a coastal flood warning has been posted. Large swells up to seven feet high are causing dangerous surf, and the South Texas coast will receive a severe battering from waves expected to reach twelve feet high by Monday. No flash flood watches are posted for South Texas as present, but 2 - 4" of rain may cause some isolated flooding problems. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Brownsville radar shows that some areas north of the city have received 3" of rain, and coastal areas of Mexico 100 miles south of the border have received 5 - 10".

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Live feed overlooking the disabled nuclear power plant at Fukushima. The clouds & rain are from Cyclone Man-Yi. By the floater & models a ~60kt cyclone should pass near directly over Fukushima in about 5 hrs.

16W MAN-YI

Quoting 449. aislinnpaps:
Off topic: for those who knew about my son. I am home. Zander had to have a new pulmonary valve and three stents. I'm exhausted and stressed out. Zander is doing very well. They were able to do it all through a cath instead of full open heart surgery. He will spend his days this week with his brother so he isn't alone as I have to go back to work. Bills must be paid. Needless to say, there was no sightseeing.

I'm hoping maybe we'll get some rain from something, but the forecast is still dry.
They say almost nothing is as hard as open-heart surgery. Luckily, in this case, it didn't have to be.
Quoting 488. victoria780:
whats your reasoning chicklit or just post another picture

NHC has Ingrid taking a hard left.

Cowboy was posting earlier today that he thought the ridge would not build and Ingrid would go north.

Everyone is hoping that is the case, but the models are sticking to westward movement.
Aislinpapps - I wish your son a speedy recovery. Been through some tough time with mine when they were infants and my son last year with a sports injury. NOTHING like what you are going through. Godspeed to you and Zander.

--

And here's to no storms for you to deal with. You don't need that headache!
Quoting 494. GeoffreyWPB:


Nothing is going to take Ingrid north. Sometimes it is what it is.


Ingrid was post-INLAND at 23oN according to Avila, tomorrow. It's not anywhere near landfall, and still moving NW.
Quoting 479. sar2401:

What NW Caribbean AOI are you talking about? I don't see on on the Navy site.

It just looks interesting atm, and the NHC has mentioned it. It's not a designated invest yet, just an area of interest.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #41
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MAN-YI (T1318)
9:00 AM JST September 16 2013
======================================

Overland Nagano Prefecture

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Man-yi (975 hPa) located at 35.3N 137.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 24 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
90 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
================
350 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
250 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak intensity: OVERLAND

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 47.6N 151.8E - Extratropical Low In Kurils Water
Whatever happened to Largo? I was in Clearwater Beach this weekend and was thinking of my fellow Tampa area bloggers. BTW, what an awesome weekend it was on the beach. A little hot and we got a little sunburned - But what great weather overall.
Quoting theyoungmet:
WOW! Manuel with the surprise of the day, by moving substantially more inland than forecasted, and I mean seriously more inland, look at the picture I attached below. This will have a big effect on Ingrid's future track. If you go on the latest satellite imagery, you can see Manuel's shear size pushing Ingrid's convective field to the eastward slightly. Over the last three hours, Ingrid has moved away from her forecast point in a more NE direction. As you can also see below, the green dot is her current center and below that is her forecast point for this same time period(NHC). I wouldn't call this a wobble either, because it is due to Manuel's westward movement. If he continues inland, you could see Ingrid get pushed more northward. Mexico still seems to be her target, but she is getting closer to Texas than originally projected. Interesting.






How did you come up with that location for Manuel? The NHC has it at 19.5N 104.5W. Your location is at least 100 miles further north and east. It's also moving NW, not NE. Are you basing it on the cloud appearance? if so you're wrong, the center is exactly where the NHC put it, not that swirl of clouds inland. Manuel is over 400 miles from Ingrid, and there a lot of 10,000 to 15,000 mountain peaks between the two of them. Ingrid is continuing to slowly push slowly NW to landfall in Mexico, while Manuel continues on his way NW toward Puerto Vallarta. Neither storm is going to have a substantial influence on the other at this point.
Title: Damaged Fukushima plant on typhoon alert
Source: NHK
Date: Sept. 15, 2013

Workers [...] are increasing patrols to make sure contaminated water does not overflow in the heavy rain.

[...] By Sunday afternoon, it has already brought heavy rain fall of 41.5 millimeters per hour in a town near the crippled power plant.

The operators are strengthening patrols to prevent rain from entering and overflowing the basement of turbine buildings and the underground tunnel where highly contaminated water has accumulated.

They found water overflowing from a fence around storage tanks near the Number 4 reactor on Sunday afternoon. TEPCO officials are inspecting the leaked water to determine if it%u2019s contaminated. [...]
"The Marine Corps is a component of the United States Department of the Navy." wikipedia, I checked just to be sure. The Marines don't have their own academy. Go Navy, beat Army!
Humberto is firing convection very near its center in the face of 50 knots of wind shear.

Is that mission 13 still in the storm?? Seems like they have been there a while.
Skyepony that is not good news.

I hope that TEPCO gets its act together and soon. SO far they are still dropping the ball.
516. txjac
Quoting 515. Dakster:
Skyepony that is not good news.

I hope that TEPCO gets its act together and soon. SO far they are still dropping the ball.


This mess right here should be looked in to by the UN. Global consequences ...


I'll go with the Brownsville radar presentation, and above satellite images and place the center of Ingrid at 23.5N & 96.0W; moving NNW.
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

It just looks interesting atm, and the NHC has mentioned it. It's not a designated invest yet, just an area of interest.

Oh, I get it now - a Blog AOI. :-) There are a few bloggers who always see an AOI in the NW Caribbean. The NHC should give them a permanent invest number.
Quoting 449. aislinnpaps:
Off topic: for those who knew about my son. I am home. Zander had to have a new pulmonary valve and three stents. I'm exhausted and stressed out. Zander is doing very well. They were able to do it all through a cath instead of full open heart surgery. He will spend his days this week with his brother so he isn't alone as I have to go back to work. Bills must be paid. Needless to say, there was no sightseeing.

I'm hoping maybe we'll get some rain from something, but the forecast is still dry.


I've had my pulmonary valve replaced several years the old fashioned way, so I know what your son is going through. I thrilled that he is doing well and so pleased he didnt have to deal with the full blown open heart and was able to do the cath lab. Good luck to him and your family during this difficult time, but Im sure he'll be fine.
amazing how these CV waves dissipate right after reaching the Atlantic.
Link
Quoting 516. txjac:


This mess right here should be looked in to by the UN. Global consequences ...


I agree - and it shouldn't be the USA's sole problem either. I am getting tired of us being the worlds Mr. Fixit. We have our own problems to solve at the moment too. I don't mind us HELPING.
Quoting 408. washingtonian115:
More BOC trash coming!.Where is the excitement/originality and suspense this season?.I just haven't been feeling this season at all.It feels redundant.Well I'm off to go do more exciting things than watch the weather in the tropics literally be stuck on replay.


I completely agree. Ingrid has never looked quite like a hurricane to me and just looks kinda sloppy and unimpressive. Nothing this season has impressed me much so far. Humberto was somewhat impressive for a time but ended up being a very ordinary category 1 hurricane.
Quoting 482. victoria780:
Maybe another trough digging in from the north is weakening the ridge to allow Ingrid to move more north then anticipated?


I don't know, it appears Manuel is operating beyond the comprehension of the models (at the moment). Yes, there is a trough over the western CONUS, but is it the one pulling Manuel north? Seems there is a ridge in the way, but, the models (I just checked several) do not locate Manuel's rotational vortex as it appears on the satellite, so, who knows!

this is where science is yet to catch up with nature...I'm sure if this works out different than forecast there will be a lot of intensive studying on how this happened...

:)

Quoting 513. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Humberto is firing convection very near its center in the face of 50 knots of wind shear.

Let's go Humberto! Let's go Humberto! Let's go Humberto! C'mon, you can do it! He'll be back-like the Terminator told ya!
Quoting 510. sar2401:

How did you come up with that location for Manuel? The NHC has it at 19.5N 104.5W. Your location is at least 100 miles further north and east. It's also moving NW, not NE. Are you basing it on the cloud appearance? if so you're wrong, the center is exactly where the NHC put it, not that swirl of clouds inland. Manuel is over 400 miles from Ingrid, and there a lot of 10,000 to 15,000 mountain peaks between the two of them. Ingrid is continuing to slowly push slowly NW to landfall in Mexico, while Manuel continues on his way NW toward Puerto Vallarta. Neither storm is going to have a substantial influence on the other at this point.


Ok, I can understand the "low level" center becoming separated, but, watch the satellite loops, how do you then explain the apparent cause of Ingrid's sudden change of direction that happens to apparently correlate with that of the "swirl of clouds" that was created by Manuel?
Quoting 451. pcola57:


Your a trooper aisln..
Gods speed Zander..
Quoting 486. wunderkidcayman:

Our AOI it's not labeled as INVEST yet on ATCF or NAVY and another thing I don't trust navy too much anyway Boo NAVY yay MARINES lol

You should think about joining. You could learn a thing or two. Don't put down our military....BOY!
Quoting 511. Skyepony:
Title: Damaged Fukushima plant on typhoon alert
Source: NHK
Date: Sept. 15, 2013

Workers [...] are increasing patrols to make sure contaminated water does not overflow in the heavy rain.

[...] By Sunday afternoon, it has already brought heavy rain fall of 41.5 millimeters per hour in a town near the crippled power plant.

The operators are strengthening patrols to prevent rain from entering and overflowing the basement of turbine buildings and the underground tunnel where highly contaminated water has accumulated.

They found water overflowing from a fence around storage tanks near the Number 4 reactor on Sunday afternoon. TEPCO officials are inspecting the leaked water to determine if its contaminated. [...]


That ain't good.. :(
Getting kinda windy too..
You know, one thing is for sure, if Ingrid were to follow NHC's track it would NOT be becoming more visible on the 248nm Brownsville radar.

18z HWRF simulated GOES infrared satellite for hour 120:

Quoting 523. StormMan:

From the NHC discussion on Manuel earlier this afternoon:

MANUEL CONTINUES TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. GULF COAST. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE WHILE THE CIRCULATION REMAINS INTACT. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY BEYOND 24 HOURS AND SOME MODELS...NOTABLY THE HWRF...GFDL...AND ECMWF...SHOW A TRACK TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENNISULA. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO IS BEING DISCOUNTED FOR NOW SINCE THE VORTEX TRACKER APPLIED TO THESE MODELS SEEMS TO FOLLOW ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHILE MANUEL DISSIPATES.

Seems the NHC is all over this model glitch.
Quoting 510. sar2401:

How did you come up with that location for Manuel? The NHC has it at 19.5N 104.5W. Your location is at least 100 miles further north and east. It's also moving NW, not NE. Are you basing it on the cloud appearance? if so you're wrong, the center is exactly where the NHC put it, not that swirl of clouds inland. Manuel is over 400 miles from Ingrid, and there a lot of 10,000 to 15,000 mountain peaks between the two of them. Ingrid is continuing to slowly push slowly NW to landfall in Mexico, while Manuel continues on his way NW toward Puerto Vallarta. Neither storm is going to have a substantial influence on the other at this point.
You could have stated your opinion without telling him he's wrong. That's little rude, you think?
532. txjac
Quoting 528. StormMan:
You know, one thing is for sure, if Ingrid were to follow NHC's track it would NOT be becoming more visible on the 248nm Brownsville radar:



I wish that there was some way to make it magically appear on Houston/Galveston radar ...wishful thinking
Quoting 452. CaicosRetiredSailor:
WHO DAT!!!!!!!!!
WHO DAT bailed out by the 1-sided officiating. Every time the Bucs player hit the receivers for the Saints it was flagged for a personal foul. The fact is the NFL is watered down nowadays it's getting closer to the point that we will be watching 2-hand touch football, unless they revert back to the way things were. This whole thing about player safety is too safe, now they delay games for rain, something they would not have done like 5 years ago. Anyone old enough to remember the 1967 Ice Bowl played between the Packers and Cowboys, extremely harsh conditions, frigid cold temperatures, and a malfunctioning heating system led to a thin layer of ice covering the field. The game was still played.
Quoting 499. SLU:
SAB continues to believe that Ingrid is not entirely a hurricane

15/2345 UTC 23.0N 96.1W T3.5/4.0 INGRID -- Atlantic


Satellite presentation is really POOR for a hurricane... another bad performance of 2013... BRAVO (irony) 2013!
Moving due W now...like it hit a wall.
Quoting 445. PensacolaDoug:



picky, picky...
Agreed... I'm entirely willing to settle for just the pineapple and orange slices... lol...

Quoting 449. aislinnpaps:
Off topic: for those who knew about my son. I am home. Zander had to have a new pulmonary valve and three stents. I'm exhausted and stressed out. Zander is doing very well. They were able to do it all through a cath instead of full open heart surgery. He will spend his days this week with his brother so he isn't alone as I have to go back to work. Bills must be paid. Needless to say, there was no sightseeing.

I'm hoping maybe we'll get some rain from something, but the forecast is still dry.
Glad you all got through it OK. There should be some provision for paid leave in special cases like this, but I guess that's not likely in the modern economic climate... :o/... Get some rest, but keep us posted later on...
Quoting 528. StormMan:
You know, one thing is for sure, if Ingrid were to follow NHC's track it would NOT be becoming more visible on the 248nm Brownsville radar:



Ingrid will have to do a swan off a 200-mile platform into MX in order to keep up with the NHC cone, at this rate.
Quoting 535. whipster:
Moving due W now...like it hit a wall.


Yes, I saw that too. Ingrid must be crashing right now...
Quoting 520. Chicklit:
amazing how these CV waves dissipate right after reaching the Atlantic.
Link


Hey Chicklit..
Looks like a vacuum cleaner sucked 'em up..
Lots of stable stabling I guess?? :)
Quoting 528. StormMan:
You know, one thing is for sure, if Ingrid were to follow NHC's track it would NOT be becoming more visible on the 248nm Brownsville radar.


Actually, it could just be some shear from the south at the mid-levels pushing the midlevel circulation north a bit. Just mentioning the possibility. I did see some clouds approaching Ingrid from the south south west on the floater loop. The high clouds seem to be blowing straight through Ingrid from due west.

It is no sure bet to determine motion of a weak system from the radar, particularly at long range where the radar is sampling the upper part of the storm, not the low level circulation.
Quoting 505. redwagon:


Ingrid was post-INLAND at 23oN according to Avila, tomorrow. It's not anywhere near landfall, and still moving NW.


So Ingrid will not make landfall tomorrow? Or are you in the Texas camp?
543. xcool
Professional-Met ozonepete Clearly blocked to the west and so climbing north very slowly


storm2k.com
Mexico's radar - sigh ...
Quoting 464. Skyepony:
Nearly 500 unaccounted for in the CO floods.
I've seen totals today as high as near 1000, taking into account all the counties involved. Unfortunately the rain seems set to continue until tomorrow, at least, making it difficult to account for quite a number of people isolated by washed out roads and streams that have jumped their banks.
Quoting 408. washingtonian115:
More BOC trash coming!.Where is the excitement/originality and suspense this season?.I just haven't been feeling this season at all.It feels redundant.Well I'm off to go do more exciting things than watch the weather in the tropics literally be stuck on replay.
I know what you mean, the weather has been tranquil here along the northeast coast of FL. at around 11am the temperature on our soccer field was 88 degrees with a heat index of 96. I literally got 3 shades darker and have tan lines. It was really miserable out there and I really felt for the players on the field. I'd rather take a thunderstorm any day as opposed to hot sunny weather that if you are not careful could cause a heat stroke. It was that bad everyone was crowding the concession stands just to keep hydrated.
Quoting 526. gulfshoresAL:
You should think about joining. You could learn a thing or two. Don't put down our military....BOY!

Lol
I'm a Marine if ya didn't know

Quoting 529. TropicalAnalystwx13:
18z HWRF simulated GOES infrared satellite for hour 120:


Link please

548. beell
Quoting 531. Bluestorm5:
You could have stated your opinion without telling him he's wrong. That's little rude, you think?


I, for one was surprised to hear there were a lot of 10-15,000' mountains between Ingrid and Manuel.
:)
Quoting 526. gulfshoresAL:
You should think about joining. You could learn a thing or two. Don't put down our military....BOY!

And I'm not a boy
Sloppy looking little storm, again.

Quoting 542. GeoffreyWPB:


So Ingrid will not make landfall tomorrow? Or are you in the Texas camp?


It'll make landfall probably tomorrow evening.
Quoting 541. bappit:

Actually, it could just be some shear from the south at the mid-levels pushing the midlevel circulation north a bit. Just mentioning the possibility. I did see some clouds approaching Ingrid from the south south west on the floater loop. The high clouds seem to be blowing straight through Ingrid from due west.

It is no sure bet to determine motion of a weak system from the radar, particularly at long range where the radar is sampling the upper part of the storm, not the low level circulation.


Agreed, definitely not even showing the eyewall or what's left of it on radar yet, just storms circulating around it and they are becoming better visible on the 248nm....

so if the storm tops are moving closer I am thinking the rest of the storm is too because I do not believe it is becoming that sheared, at least with apparently storms that are staying intact and are moving in the direction of storm circulation...

will be watching since the radar is better than any satellite we have at the moment to showing what is happening under the canopy in practically realtime

:)
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Yep I think Ingrid may RI until landfall and I think landfall will be further N as well

Why would Ingrid be a candidate for RI? It's not over an area of deep warm water. In its present location, the water is over 2000 feet deep and there has to be some cold water upwelling taking place. Wind shear is and has been a problem since it became a storm. There are no anticyclones formed or forming in the vicinity of the storm. The pressure would have to drop to 945 mb in 24 hours. Ingrid has been hanging around out there for over 24 hours as a hurricane and has never had significantly low pressure, let alone a significant pressure drop. I see Ingrid as possibly a 90 mph hurricane if things go just right and it gets in some shallow, warm water before landfall. I see absolutely no chance for RI.
Quoting 522. HurrMichaelOrl:


I completely agree. Ingrid has never looked quite like a hurricane to me and just looks kinda sloppy and unimpressive. Nothing this season has impressed me much so far. Humberto was somewhat impressive for a time but ended up being a very ordinary category 1 hurricane.
I still think we can get up to 15 named storms, but I was going with 8 hurricanes and 5 majors, so I might bust in that department. Still I would keep eyes to the south of us, especially when we get into October. You know what would be ironic is if we broke the major hurricane drought on the US. with a storm hitting in the same spot as Wilma did or near to that spot.
hmmmm, now that's interesting..





I think that, combined with wind shear, would explain much of the strung out orientation.
Quoting 550. GatorWX:
Sloppy looking little storm, again.



That's perfectly fine, we just need the rain :)
Quoting 550. GatorWX:
Sloppy looking little storm, again.



Slow-moving sloppy storms can be the worse as far as rainfall.
Quoting 550. GatorWX:
Sloppy looking little storm, again.



Agree Gator..
Looks to be getting sheared now in the north quad..



Good little rain maker though..
Maybe Texas relief..??
Quoting 552. StormMan:


Agreed, definitely not even showing the eyewall or what's left of it on radar yet, just storms circulating around it and they are becoming better visible on the 248nm....

so if the storm tops are moving closer I am thinking the rest of the storm is too because I do not believe it is becoming that sheared, at least with apparently storms that are staying intact and are moving in the direction of storm circulation...

will be watching since the radar is better than any satellite we have at the moment to showing what is happening under the canopy in practically realtime

:)
Sure a lot further north then predicted,yesterday the highest latitude it was suppose to be was 22.5 before inland/
I got the internet back and was not evacuated so i'm back on :p It looks like Ingrid is affecting something in the US at least

In addition to the Brownsville lSD, the following school are also closing due to bad weather tomorrow:

St Joseph Academy
Brownsville

IDEA and IDEA Frontier
Brownsville

Incarnate Word Academy
Brownsville

Trinity Lutheran Christian Childcare
Brownsville

Harmony Science Academy
Brownsville.

Livingway Leadership Academy and Jubilee Leadership Academy
Brownsville

(Source: KRGV.com)
Quoting 542. GeoffreyWPB:


So Ingrid will not make landfall tomorrow? Or are you in the Texas camp?


Am I in the TX camp? I have a lake 60ft low that needs 40" just to put it back to *normal*. Our *normal* annual rainfall is ~30".



Inching closer.

Quoting 554. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I still think we can get up to 15 named storms, but I was going with 8 hurricanes and 5 majors, so I might bust in that department. Still I would keep eyes to the south of us, especially when we get into October. You know what would be ironic is if we broke the major hurricane drought on the US. with a storm hitting in the same spot as Wilma did or near to that spot.
Yea...we don't really need that. But it seems like some of the ingredients may be in place for something like that...
Quoting 474. Chicklit:
While Texans pray for rain more bad news from Colorado...Some 1,500 homes have been destroyed and about 17,500 have been damaged, according to an initial estimate released by the Colorado Office of Emergency Management.

Some people just don't know what's come of their relatives. A Dallas man saw a photo of his mother's Big Thompson Canyon home in ruins on a Denver TV website. "I don't know that she's even OK," Rob Clements told The Coloradoan about his mother, Libby Orr, 73, with whom he last spoke on Thursday. "I presume she is. But her house, if not completely gone, fell into the river and is most of the way gone."


Link USA Today Minutes Ago
There have been two different reports of elderly ladies observed to have been in houses which were washed away by flood waters. They are missing and presumed to be dead, but so far not actually added to any death toll. Authorities are being very circumspect about declaring any deaths without bodies.
Anyone here watching "Breaking Bad"?

Holy Moly!

Quoting 553. sar2401:

Why would Ingrid be a candidate for RI? It's not over an area of deep warm water. In its present location, the water is over 2000 feet deep and there has to be some cold water upwelling taking place. Wind shear is and has been a problem since it became a storm. There are no anticyclones formed or forming in the vicinity of the storm. The pressure would have to drop to 945 mb in 24 hours. Ingrid has been hanging around out there for over 24 hours as a hurricane and has never had significantly low pressure, let alone a significant pressure drop. I see Ingrid as possibly a 90 mph hurricane if things go just right and it gets in some shallow, warm water before landfall. I see absolutely no chance for RI.
Thanks to Manuel, Ingrid wasn't given that full opportunity to take advantage of its surrounding environment, the atmospheric conditions, the upper level outflow from Manuel and caught in the monsoon envelope kept her in check. It also prevent Manuel from becoming terribly strong as well, that and if you factor in proximity to land, and perhaps the mountains over Mexico driving down some dry air into the circulation of Ingrid.
LOL, looks like the circulation just jumped due west.
Quoting 548. beell:


I, for one was surprised to hear there were a lot of 10-15,000' mountains between Ingrid and Manuel.
:)

"the Sierra Madre del Sur, runs from Michoacn to Oaxaca" (wikipedia) has probably decapitated Manuel what with the upper winds streaming in from the Pacific. This season I've seen the NHC track both the low level and mid level circulations of storms after they decouple. [They seem to pick one or the other.]
Quoting Bluestorm5:
You could have stated your opinion without telling him he's wrong. That's little rude, you think?

Blue, it wasn't my opinion, it was the NHC's opinion. It was his opinion that the NHC was wrong about both the location and direction of movement for Miguel. He's wrong. It's not my job to make him feel better about being wrong. If I had said something like "you're an absolute moron...and you're wrong", that would have been rude. He, of course, has every right and opportunity to show us how he's correct.
Quoting 562. redwagon:


Am I in the TX camp? I have a lake 60ft low that needs 40" just to put it back to *normal*. Our *normal* annual rainfall is ~30".



Inching closer.



Hope you get the rain you need.
Levi's forcast from 3-4 days ago is coming to life.
Quoting 553. sar2401:

Why would Ingrid be a candidate for RI? It's not over an area of deep warm water. In its present location, the water is over 2000 feet deep and there has to be some cold water upwelling taking place. Wind shear is and has been a problem since it became a storm. There are no anticyclones formed or forming in the vicinity of the storm. The pressure would have to drop to 945 mb in 24 hours. Ingrid has been hanging around out there for over 24 hours as a hurricane and has never had significantly low pressure, let alone a significant pressure drop. I see Ingrid as possibly a 90 mph hurricane if things go just right and it gets in some shallow, warm water before landfall. I see absolutely no chance for RI.

From 75mph to 90mph between now and landfall can also be considered as RI but yeah I'm expecting Ingrid could make it to a 90-95mph hurricane just maybe it could push it to 100mph just before or as it make landfall just maybe
Quoting 570. GeoffreyWPB:


Hope you get the rain you need. You don't need a direct hit to achieve that.
What the hell is wrong with Ingrid? it looks absolutely pathetic!
No spoilers. Putting you on ignore just in case.
100 MPH? It should probably start to do something other than look like a complete train wreck if it wants to become anything more than an ugly, rainmaking minimum cat 1.
Gosh, there's a lot going on!

Quoting 570. GeoffreyWPB:


Hope you get the rain you need.
It would be beneficial to them if they get the rains over a span of time, as opposed to all at once.
Quoting 568. bappit:

LOL, looks like the circulation just jumped due west.


You mean based on the radar? If so, did you notice that you are also seeing it more in the north too?

Could it be the "westward jump" is simply the storms rotating around the core becoming more visible to the radar as the entire system moves north?

Now I know this blog has lost it when they start yelling at the storms
Quoting bappit:
LOL, looks like the circulation just jumped due west.
"the Sierra Madre del Sur, runs from Michoacán to Oaxaca" (wikipedia) has probably decapitated Manuel what with the upper winds streaming in from the Pacific. This season I've seen the NHC track both the low level and mid level circulations of storms after they decouple.

Remember "The Treasure of the Sierra Madre", with Humphrey Bogart? "Badges....I don't have to show you no stinkin' badges"? Those were the Sierra Madres that the movie was actually filmed in.
582. beell
Quoting 568. bappit:
LOL, looks like the circulation just jumped due west.
.


A good caution from your previous post. Beam height to the circular radar returns from KBRO ought to be at least 25-30,000'.
Quoting 578. GTstormChaserCaleb:
It would be beneficial to them if they get the rains over a span of time, as opposed to all at once.


Actually, that seems true, and it is in case of severe flooding rains...however, that is precisely what central Texas needs, you see, there have been several cases of localized 3-6" rain falls in the LCRA buckets (lining the tributaries that feed the watershed), but, the ground is so empty, instead of running off it just disappears.

We truly do need flooding rains (with fast rainfall rates) to make enough surface drainage to feed the watershed...

And that is how Texas droughts are usually busted...
The main convection sure made a good jog to the north. The further north the better for Texas. The COC might just be where the NHC has placed it though. Will be interesting to see the next update.
Quoting 580. Hurricanes101:
Now I know this blog has lost it when they start yelling at the storms


The 2013 hurricane season will do that to you
586. beell
Quoting 581. sar2401:

Remember "The Treasure of the Sierra Madre", with Humphrey Bogart? "Badges....I don't have to show you no stinkin' badges"? Those were the Sierra Madres that the movie was actually filmed in.


Which Sierra Madre?
No Spoilers. I wouldn't do that.
Looks to me like Ingrid is still completely embedded in the monsoon trough, which now extends east of the Yucatan. At the same time, an ull is moving west in the ne gom. Shear looks 20-25 kts from the west. The combination of the stretched mid-upper level vorticity and wind shear is keeping it very unbalanced and I first noticed last night what looked like a mid level spin break off towards the se. Since then the monsoon trough has repositioned itself and built eastward into the wcarib. I remember reading from the Melbourne NWS discussion, a tropical or perhaps baroclinic low could form in the wcarib as evidenced by the euro and gfs. I haven't looked at models yet, but I think I remember seeing the gfs throwing a large system ne into the atl earlier today in the long range.

IMO
Quoting 581. sar2401:

Remember "The Treasure of the Sierra Madre", with Humphrey Bogart? "Badges....I don't have to show you no stinkin' badges"? Those were the Sierra Madres that the movie was actually filmed in.
I knew that!
I also know it's probably best to keep an open mind on the possibilities with these cyclones. Never good to get too emotional. Here, with Ingrid, the NHC said in it's last discussion there was little chance for much intensification within the following 12 hours....and at the same time they forecast a move north to an eventual landfall at 23N. It's just 5 hours later and the cyclone is north of 23N already. They might be wrong about the intensity as well. Might. It's not an exact science.
Quoting 578. GTstormChaserCaleb:
It would be beneficial to them if they get the rains over a span of time, as opposed to all at once.


If I had the choice between the two with this scenario...I would take all at once.
Good Evening Class!


Bret was forecast to go into Mexico south of Brownsville and models shifted at last minute and he went in almost 100 miles north of Brownsville.
I'm sorry INGRID, you're not selected for the 2013 SUPERMODEL CONTEST.
Humberto looking good.

Quoting 577. GatorWX:
Gosh, there's a lot going on!



Looks like that convective band from Manuel heading N towards Ingrid is gonna bump her a little N. We still have center reloc concerns with Ingrid at this point.
Quoting 593. CaribBoy:
I'm sorry INGRID, you're not selected for the 2013 SUPERMODEL CONTEST.


The only contestant so far is Humberto.
Quoting 462. Badmonkey82009:


I'll never be over macho grande


Just saw this!
Bahahahahhaa!
The SSTs are extremely WARM.... and NOTHING IS EVEN ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC!!!!

WHAT A PITY!!
Quoting 596. FunnelVortex:


The only contestant so far is Humberto.


Lol the way he is looking right now... well....................
GFS - 204 hrs.



ECMWF 216 hrs.

Quoting 594. FunnelVortex:
Humberto looking good.



He is sheared, not sexy enough for the contest lol
Quoting 580. Hurricanes101:
Now I know this blog has lost it when they start yelling at the storms

No, yelling at clouds is what all the normal people do....
XD
Ingrid is weakening
For the 1 000 000 000 000th time this year : BoOoOoORRRRRRIIIIIIIINNNNGGGG.

Lol.
Quoting 596. FunnelVortex:


The only contestant so far is Humberto.


Quoting 599. CaribBoy:


Lol the way he is looking right now... well....................


He still has a pretty swirl, and he is looking a lot better now than he did earlier. Convection is going off over the center again.

I expect him to become something pretty again sometime soon.

And the FIM 7 and FIM 8!
Quoting 600. GatorWX:
GFS - 204 hrs.



ECMWF 216 hrs.

Quoting 606. yqt1001:




I mean the 2013 Humberto...
Some of the most incredible lightning I've ever seen going on in Miami right now.

Already lost power twice lol.
Quoting 609. FunnelVortex:


I mean the 2013 Humberto...


That's Utor...
Quoting 465. Tazmanian:
Crownpoint dam expected to break


According to law enforcement, a dam in Crownpoint is expected to break sometime between 6:30 p.m. and 8:30 p.m. on Sunday evening.

When the dam fails a flash flood is expected to impact low laying areas of Crownpoint.

This area includes the Indian Health Service Hospital.

An evacuation is in progress and people in the area should seek higher ground immediately



Link



back too lurking


From KRQE

CROWNPOINT, N.M. (KRQE) - Navajo police have asked the National Weather Service to retract statements that the Crownpoint dam is expected to break.

On Sunday the NWS issued an alert citing law enforcement officials that the failure of the dam was “imminent” going on to say it would break between 6:30 and 8:30 p.m.

While Navajo police do say there are concerns about an earthen dam, crews have built a spillway to relieve pressure and have water pumps going.



Capt. Steven Nelson with Navajo Police goes on to say that the dam could fail if more storms come through. That dam is located about half a mile out of town.

The alert issued by the National Weather Service indicated that when the dam broke, a flash flood would impact the low laying areas of Crownpoint, including the Indian Health Service Hospital.

Nelson said employees who live north of the dam are being asked to seek higher ground – but not being evacuated.

In response to Navajo Police, Kerry Jones with the National Weather Service issued the following statement:

“It’s a fluid situation. The State EOC Director is checking with the State Engineer to gauge the amount of water that is potentially dammed.”
Thousands of residents in Lake Worth have been without power for several hours on Sunday evening.
Utility crews are feverishly working to restore power, and 5,000 customers still remain without power in the south and central parts of the city, said Michael Bornstein, City Manager of Lake Worth.
The major power outage affected 16,000 customers and was caused by a lightning strike that hit a transformer, Bornstein said.
Power lines are expected to be restored by midnight on Sunday, said Bornstein.



Quoting 610. MiamiHurricanes09:
Some of the most incredible lightning I've ever seen going on in Miami right now.

Already lost power twice lol.
Quoting 610. MiamiHurricanes09:
Some of the most incredible lightning I've ever seen going on in Miami right now.

Already lost power twice lol.


STRANGE! I see no deep convection over miami right now.
Quoting 606. yqt1001:


I believe he mean the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season.
Quoting 610. MiamiHurricanes09:
Some of the most incredible lightning I've ever seen going on in Miami right now.

Already lost power twice lol.

Agree, even though I haven't lost power. This morning it was also very intense. They issued a severe thunderstorm warning and flood watch for northeastern Miami-Dade County earlier today.
Ingrid is done for.

NEXT
620. beell


Ingrid's recon center fix is located near the southern perimeter of the eye-like radar return on KBRO radar. At about the six five o'clock position.

A. Time of Center Fix: 16th day of the month at 1:31:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 2302'N 9621'W (23.0333N 96.35W)

GFS at 180 hrs.



That a heck of a low sw of AK. CMC, GFS and euro ensembles show this as well. The operational euro is weaker however and shows high pressure over the plains.
Quoting 601. CaribBoy:


He is sheared, not sexy enough for the contest lol


IM starting a rain fund for CaribBoy....Cash,Checks excepted......we will bribe the rain gods!
Quoting 620. beell:


Ingrid's recon center fix is located near the southern perimeter of the eye-like radar return on KBRO radar. At about the six five o'clock position.

A. Time of Center Fix: 16th day of the month at 1:31:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°02'N 96°21'W (23.0333N 96.35W)

Looks like landfall within 6 hours at this rate.
624. beell
Quoting 623. Abacosurf:
Looks like landfall within 6 hours at this rate.


Maybe a little longer. Still about 100 miles off the beach. Rough approximation between the current and previous fix yields about 10 knots.

Seems to be a hurricane in the northern semicircle. But a very small radius of CAT1 winds.
625. Relix
Seems CV season has officially shut down heh?
Quoting 618. RTLSNK:


Wow! Ingrid looks a lot closer to Texas than I realized!
Manuel downgraded to a tropical depression. Tropical storm warnings have been discontinued.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2013

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
The wind shear has not abated at all like it was forecast to by the global models and National Hurricane Center. If anything, it appears to have increased just a little. With Ingrid speeding up now and turning west-northwestward, expect landfall in the morning as a strong tropical storm/minimal hurricane.

Without Manuel, this would have likely been a powerful major hurricane.
Quoting 621. GatorWX:
GFS at 180 hrs.



That a heck of a low sw of AK. CMC, GFS and euro ensembles show this as well. The operational euro is weaker however and shows high pressure over the plains.


wow...look at those gradients!
For those interested Im running a blog on Ingrid, trying to keep it updated with the latest information from NHC and CONAGUA

BULLETIN
HURRICANE INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...INGRID TURNS BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIND NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 96.5W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM NE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES
Rain slows rescue efforts amid deadly Colorado floods

Link
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...MANUEL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUT STILL PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 104.9W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM NW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013

MANUEL HAS BEEN INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FOR MORE THAN 6
HOURS...AND THE LAND INTERACTION IS TAKING A TOLL ON THE SYSTEM.
THE VERTICAL CIRCULATION HAS DECOUPLED...WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE
MINIMUM LOCATED NEAR THE COAST TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
WHILE THE MID-LEVEL CENTER HAS MOVED WELL INLAND OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...MANUEL IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE WEAKENED TO A 30-KT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. EVEN THOUGH MANUEL IS LOSING STRENGTH...IT CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.

ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WHILE THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD. ALTHOUGH DISSIPATION IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL COULD REDEVELOP IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN THE
SYSTEM NEARS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

THE MAIN HAZARD IS TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING...
WHICH COULD PERSIST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 19.8N 104.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 20.7N 105.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Not sure how the NHC gets 989mb when the last 4 center fixes have been 990, 990, 991, 992...
HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
INDICATE THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION IN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS ABATED...AT LEAST FOR THE MEAN TIME.
AROUND 21-22Z...A NOAA AIRCRAFT MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 987
MB. SINCE THAT TIME...THE PRESSURE HAS RISEN SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 989
MB. THE HIGHEST WIND DATA OBSERVED THUS FAR HAVE BEEN 76 KT AT 850
MB...62-63 KT SFMR BIAS-ADJUSTED...DROPSONDE MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS OF 64 KT...AND A DROPSONDE SURFACE WIND OF 69 KT. A BLEND OF
THESE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS NEAR 65 KT...
WHICH MEANS THAT INGRID IS BARELY MAINTAINING HURRICANE STATUS.

AFTER A SLIGHT JOG TO THE NORTHWEST EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...INGRID
APPEARS TO HAVE RETURNED TO ITS PREVIOUS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE
OF 290/05 KT. AS A RESULT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING ARE REQUIRED. HURRICANE INGRID SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF
A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF LANDFALL...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR IN ABOUT
24 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCA.

A COMPARISON OF RADAR FIXES AT 35000 FEET AND THE RECONNAISSANCE
SURFACE POSITIONS INDICATE THAT MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR IS STILL
TILTING THE UPPER-LEVEL VORTEX TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE TIME
OF LANDFALL...WHICH MEANS THAT SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NOW THAT INGRID IS MOVING INTO THE CONVECTIVE
MAXIMUM PERIOD. THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY ONCE IT MOVES
INLAND OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND STORM SURGE THREATS...TORRENTIAL RAINS
FROM BOTH INGRID AND EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 23.1N 96.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 23.2N 97.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 22.9N 98.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/1200Z 22.5N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 18/0000Z 22.1N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Quoting 554. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I still think we can get up to 15 named storms, but I was going with 8 hurricanes and 5 majors, so I might bust in that department. Still I would keep eyes to the south of us, especially when we get into October. You know what would be ironic is if we broke the major hurricane drought on the US. with a storm hitting in the same spot as Wilma did or near to that spot.


Definitely Caleb. I think we will have no problem getting to 15 named storms. If Florida does get a hurricane this year, I have no doubt it will be from the NW Caribbean (FL Peninsula) and from the Caribbean or Southern Gulf if hitting the FL Panhandle.
Quoting 628. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The wind shear has not abated at all like it was forecast to by the global models and National Hurricane Center. If anything, it appears to have increased just a little. With Ingrid speeding up now and turning west-northwestward, expect landfall in the morning as a strong tropical storm/minimal hurricane.

Without Manuel, this would have likely been a powerful major hurricane.
Manuel really save Mexico,Manuel hurt her more than helping her.I believe Ingrid was small to hurt Manuel like he hurt her.
Ingrid is being beat up by a tropical depression.....this is absolutely hilarious.
Gnite all... big day blogging here
Ingrid looks like its trying to tighten up in the center.
643. flsky
Quoting 632. BahaHurican:
Rain slows rescue efforts amid deadly Colorado floods

Link

Boulder County has been declared a disaster area for infrastructure and individual assistance. I understand now, that 12 other counties are being considered. I might be spending Halloween in CO.
So far in CO the same 6 people are being given as fatalities that were "identified" on Friday evening. I'm finding it interesting that CNN and others are talking about the count "increasing" when it hasn't changed for 48 hours.

I've not doubt there will be others, but so far it seems most people can hope their loved ones are just stranded somewhere out of reach.
Good evening, weathergeeks! ;)

Y'all got this thing figured out yet?


646. flsky

Gorgeous image.
Anyway guys I'm out see y'all tomorrow
Quoting 640. HurricaneCamille:
Ingrid is being beat up by a tropical depression.....this is absolutely hilarious.
Same thing happened to Gabrielle...
649. flsky
NEARLY 19,000 HOMES DAMAGED, 11,700 PEOPLE EVACUATED

(Not my caps. The above from the online version of the Denver Post - at about 8:30p their time)
I know she's getting closer to the beach, but still edging ever so much closer to TX. LBAR and BAMD bringing what's left of it back over TX. Maybe off the right side, off this kind of loop, it'll generate some much needed precip for TX. We can hope for them. :)


Both systems in the same floater.


For viewing on Monday, the link below is for webcams viewing the salvage operation of the Costa Concordia. Although it is still dark now, they are beginning preparations to pull the ship upright.

http://costaconcordiawebcams.com/

(this will take many hours)
Quoting BahaHurican:
Same thing happened to Gabrielle...
And there is another Fernand, tropical depression, an Ingrid for old Good Mexico on the making for next week; we can remember this season as the Bay of Campeche Mexican's Storms and weak hurricanes,which unfortunately are causing lots of damages and lives...
Also before I go to sleep the is a good amount of spin now visible on grand cayman Belize and canćun radars
Quoting 645. moonlightcowboy:
Good evening, weathergeeks! ;)

Y'all got this thing figured out yet?




It's gonna rain.

588?
0z GFS @ 42 hours:

Quoting BahaHurican:
So far in CO the same 6 people are being given as fatalities that were "identified" on Friday evening. I'm finding it interesting that CNN and others are talking about the count "increasing" when it hasn't changed for 48 hours.

I've not doubt there will be others, but so far it seems most people can hope their loved ones are just stranded somewhere out of reach.

The media keep hammering away on the hundreds of "missing", when most of them are simply unaccounted for. These range from college students staring blankly at the "No Signal" message on their cell phone to real backwoods types, who have chosen to live off the beaten path. In the first case, someone will have to lead them to a Red Cross communications center, at which time they'll find out they don't know anyone's phone number without the contacts on their no longer functioning phone. They will then have to be taught how to use something called a "phone book". :-)

In the second case, those folks already live pretty much off the grid and prefer it that way. They are just fine, but parents and friends are worried, so the sheriff's search and rescue team will have to travel (sometimes over long distances and at great peril) to lay eyes on Grizzly Adams to check another name off the list.

Almost everyone else is just lost in the shuffle and will contact one another as communications are restored. We had over 500 reported "missing" after the Oakland Hills Firestorm and it finally turned out we found the remains of 20. Five had already been located before we stated our search, so the total direct death toll was 25. The area struck by the floods in Colorado is not as densely populated as the Oakland Hills, so I would expect the final death toll to be about 12-15.
Quoting BahaHurican:
So far in CO the same 6 people are being given as fatalities that were "identified" on Friday evening. I'm finding it interesting that CNN and others are talking about the count "increasing" when it hasn't changed for 48 hours.

I've not doubt there will be others, but so far it seems most people can hope their loved ones are just stranded somewhere out of reach.


News channels like to make disaster news seem worse by not telling the truth. I'm surprised the different news channels aren't giving different counts like they did after the Moore Tornado.
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


Definitely Caleb. I think we will have no problem getting to 15 named storms. If Florida does get a hurricane this year, I have no doubt it will be from the NW Caribbean (FL Peninsula) and from the Caribbean or Southern Gulf if hitting the FL Panhandle.
Don't worry unfortunately for Mexico, all the storms are heading towards them. You could see how all those cold front are diving across Florida, which is telling you that fall hurricane season is blocked for Florida... of course, there is always the possibility of a hybrid system to appear in October and November....
Quoting 655. GatorWX:


It's gonna rain.

588?



Read it. Sounds good, Gator. Rain. Yup, that's what we want, not so much for MX, but for it to keep creeping northwards and dump some precip on TX. At this point, don't care much how they classify it, just that TX gets some rain (and there's no loss of life).
Quoting BahaHurican:
Same thing happened to Gabrielle...
Yeap, Gabrielle was beat up by a tropical wave... that came from no where, to save Puerto Rico....
Quoting 659. AussieStorm:


News channels like to make disaster news seem worse by not telling the truth. I'm surprised the different news channels aren't giving different counts like they did after the Moore Tornado.
The Moore tornado was a bit different, I think, because there was actually some miscounting going on, as well as mis-reporting of numbers. Here the numbers are not really changing; the officials are being very clear about the meaning of "missing" as unaccounted for rather than as believed to be dead. The media [for some unknown reason] seems to think this situation needs to be hyped....

The Denver Post website has been pretty accurate so far.
Pretty lackluster radar presentation. Ingrid is a tricky little thing to watch!



and then there's the jsl and ir2...


Quoting moonlightcowboy:
I know she's getting closer to the beach, but still edging ever so much closer to TX. LBAR and BAMD bringing what's left of it back over TX. Maybe off the right side, off this kind of loop, it'll generate some much needed precip for TX. We can hope for them. :)



Well, CLIPS is just climatology, not a model. That BAMD does very well on deep and well organized tropical storms, which, unfortunately, Ingrid ain't. The LBAR is an altered version of forecast model data from the GFS with special meteorological equations and techniques (different from the BAM), including an average of winds over the entire atmosphere from top to bottom, that predict the evolution of tropical storms. It's moderately useful for storms in the formative stages but not very good on storms that have already come ashore. There's a reason why those three are outliers. I wish I could be more optimistic for Texas, but whatever south Texas can pickup between now and tomorrow afternoon is likely to be it, :-(
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #42
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MAN-YI (T1318)
12:00 PM JST September 16 2013
======================================

Overland Saitama Prefecture

At 3:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Man-yi (985 hPa) located at 36.1N 139.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 30 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
350 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
250 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak intensity: OVERLAND

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 49.3N 153.6E - Extratropical Low In Kurils Water
Quoting 665. sar2401:

Well, CLIPS is just climatology, not a model. That BAMD does very well on deep and well organized tropical storms, which, unfortunately, Ingrid ain't. The LBAR is an altered version of forecast model data from the GFS with special meteorological equations and techniques (different from the BAM), including an average of winds over the entire atmosphere from top to bottom, that predict the evolution of tropical storms. It's moderately useful for storms in the formative stages but not very good on storms that have already come ashore. There's a reason why those three are outliers. I wish I could be more optimistic for Texas, but whatever south Texas can pickup between now and tomorrow afternoon is likely to be it, :-(



Thanks, Sar. The model explanation wasn't necessary. Fully aware of what CLIPS is. Been following this stuff a few years myself. Just trying to be positive for folks that need some rain.
That ULL wants to destroy Humberto

Manuel has been a big hindrance today regarding shear. It is however sending a good deal of moisture ne.

Anyone else thinking.....? : /

Quoting GatorWX:
Manuel has been a big hindrance today regarding shear. It is however sending a good deal of moisture ne as well.



Manuel looks huge beside Ingrid
Still out, darn!

#659: BBC is saying:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-240 98184
19 fatalities in total but it reads like maybe 13 died in previous rain events.
Quoting 670. GatorWX:
Anyone else thinking.....? : /



No, my brain stopped working at about five o'clock Friday and isn't scheduled to reboot until after a couple cups of coffee in the morning at about 8:00. ;)

What you seein'? I'll vote for it. ;)
Quoting 671. AussieStorm:


Manuel looks huge beside Ingrid


As beell stated, think of this all as one system, extending from Manuel up to ingrid and back e into the nwcarib. I'm pretty sure this is still essentially true.
BRB...There's some convection out there for sure.



Last three hours


Quoting 670. GatorWX:
Anyone else thinking.....? : /



center relocation?
idk either at this point. Need some more sat frames. Flash loop is one frame longer. Looked, on gif, like convection is/was wrapping further e. I'm not sure that's the case after looking at flash though.



Leaving ealry tomorrow, so trying to get my "fix", lol.
Quoting HuracanTaino:
And there is another Fernand, tropical depression, an Ingrid for old Good Mexico on the making for next week; we can remember this season as the Bay of Campeche Mexican's Storms and weak hurricanes,which unfortunately are causing lots of damages and lives...

Indeed, but certainly not as bad as it could have been. Most of the rain has been very beneficial to Mexico's tropical crops farmers. like mangoes and vanilla. It's the first good season they've had in years. The Mexican poor that live in the hills seem to always suffer even from a normal rainstorm, so at least the rain is also doing some good.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22
12:00 PM JST September 16 2013
======================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 17.5N 132.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 18.1N 131.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
have quite the possibilities of cyclones in the western Pacific..



Sea East Of The Philippines TD 22 (99W)



South China Sea 90W



East Of Marianas Island
Quoting 622. HurricaneHunterJoe:


IM starting a rain fund for CaribBoy....Cash,Checks excepted......we will bribe the rain gods!


LOL I want some rain more than ever!!
Quoting GatorWX:
idk either at this point. Need some more sat frames. Flash loop is one frame longer. Looked, on gif, like convection is/was wrapping further e. I'm not sure that's the case after looking at flash though.



Leaving ealry tomorrow, so trying to get my "fix", lol.

Look at the AVN loop here and you can see, right at the very last frames, a definite turn to the west. You can also see that organization is decreasing and the blow-off to the north is shrinking. I think Ingrid has finally run out of energy to fight the shear and the ridge any longer, and the turn to the west will become very clear over the next several hours.

This is now the fifth system in the BOC that has been unable to break away from the shore. With Fernand, I kept hearing that it was "this" close to becoming a hurricane before it went ashore, as if that made some kind of difference. Now we have a cat 1 hurricane and, except for making it a little further north, the results will be exactly the same - keel over and head west. The BOC is not a magical place, and storms that form in it are both blessed and cursed. Weak systems, like those we've had this year, get trapped by the topography, deep, cold water, and the usual ridge that's in place to the north. If a storm enters the BOC as a deep, well organized system and can start moving north and then east very quickly, and intensify quickly, it can then get slingshoted out into the Gulf. These are the dangerous BOC storms. The vast majority are going to be like the ones we've already seen, who either arrive as infants, are born in the BOC, and then are doomed to die in the BOC. This is going to continue this year until we get a strong system in the NW Caribbean or the Texas Ridge breaks down.
Ingrid is becoming more organized in structure.. even saw a ragged eye like feature appear on IR a few minutes ago. I deff can see her making cat 2 later today now that Manuel has weakened. Very interesting but also dangerous.
Wasn't Ingrid already supposed to have made landfall according to NHC and modeling forecasts?
Weird... 00z GFS no longer shows Humberto becoming a hurricane again, which it has been for the last several runs. Heck, it doesn't even show it becoming a decent tropical storm anymore.
Quoting 683. sar2401:

Look at the AVN loop here and you can see, right at the very last frames, a definite turn to the west. You can also see that organization is decreasing and the blow-off to the north is shrinking. I think Ingrid has finally run out of energy to fight the shear and the ridge any longer, and the turn to the west will become very clear over the next several hours.

This is now the fifth system in the BOC that has been unable to break away from the shore. With Fernand, I kept hearing that it was "this" close to becoming a hurricane before it went ashore, as if that made some kind of difference. Now we have a cat 1 hurricane and, except for making it a little further north, the results will be exactly the same - keel over and head west. The BOC is not a magical place, and storms that form in it are both blessed and cursed. Weak systems, like those we've had this year, get trapped by the topography, deep, cold water, and the usual ridge that's in place to the north. If a storm enters the BOC as a deep, well organized system and can start moving north and then east very quickly, and intensify quickly, it can then get slingshoted out into the Gulf. These are the dangerous BOC storms. The vast majority are going to be like the ones we've already seen, who either arrive as infants, are born in the BOC, and then are doomed to die in the BOC. This is going to continue this year until we get a strong system in the NW Caribbean or the Texas Ridge breaks down.


I didn't imply the llc wasn't heading west.
Quoting 684. reedzone:
Ingrid is becoming more organized in structure.. even saw a ragged eye like feature appear on IR a few minutes ago. I deff can see her making cat 2 later today now that Manuel has weakened. Very interesting but also dangerous.



Where you been, Reed? Sure haven't seen you around much. Good to see you.

That's a mess down there, two systems embedded in a larger monsoonal moisture gyre. I've been optimistic about Ingrid, then I get let down. However, it's still out there, hanging on to cane strength albeit barely, and slowing getting a bit more latitude. What do you think it's ultimately going to do?
Quoting moonlightcowboy:



Thanks, Sar. The model explanation wasn't necessary. Fully aware of what CLIPS is. Been following this stuff a few years myself. Just trying to be positive for folks that need some rain.

Yeah, I know. I wish I could be positive using the models, but the models make it look even worse. The only really chance it has is to get some monsoonal flow out of the Gulf of California and have it pick up some of the copious remnants of both storms and move it east. New Mexico actually looks like it has pretty good shot at this, so having the ridge drift a few hundred miles north might be all that's needed for at least south and central Texas.
Quoting 688. moonlightcowboy:



Where you been, Reed? Sure haven't seen you around much. Good to see you.

That's a mess down there, two systems embedded in a larger monsoonal moisture gyre. I've been optimistic about Ingrid, then I get let down. However, it's still out there, hanging on to cane strength albeit barely, and slowing getting a bit more latitude. What do you think it's ultimately going to do?


After what this season has brung? I have no clue.. Typing from my phone here. I lurk here everyday and sad to see Grother leave. He has contributed alot to this blog over the past couple years. Hope everything is ok with him in the real world. Glad to see ur doing well Moonlight. :)
Quoting 684. reedzone:
Ingrid is becoming more organized in structure.. even saw a ragged eye like feature appear on IR a few minutes ago. I deff can see her making cat 2 later today now that Manuel has weakened. Very interesting but also dangerous.

An eye?

The center is located on the western edge of the westernmost convective blob. Still very disorganized with little time to intensify before landfall. Recon showed a slowly rising pressure upon exit.
CBC is saying there are 21 fatalities - mostly due to Manuel so far.
Quoting reedzone:


After what this season has brung? I have no clue.. Typing from my phone here. I lurk here everyday and sad to see Grother leave. He has contributed alot to this blog over the past couple years. Hope everything is ok with him in the real world. Glad to see ur doing well Moonlight. :)

Hope Grother gets his butt back here...and hope he's doing well.
Quoting GatorWX:


I didn't imply the llc wasn't heading west.

Sorry, Gator, that last paragrapgh wasn't meant for you. It was for the folks who hear "storm" + "BOC" = "Giant Hurricane". There actually seemed to some people here that were miffed that, since Ingrid became a hurricane, it was supposed to rocket off into the Gulf and flatten Galveston. :-) Seemed like a good time to remind some newbies that the the BOC doesn't usually work like that.
Really? Another ULL in the gulf off SW FL. Can't catch a break on the heavy rain here in the Naples area. Not as bad as Colorado, but if we get any kind of tropical storm, we will be screwed!
Quoting 695. sar2401:

Sorry, Gator, that last paragrapgh wasn't meant for you. It was for the folks who hear "storm" + "BOC" = "Giant Hurricane". There actually seemed to some people here that were miffed that, since Ingrid became a hurricane, it was supposed to rocket off into the Gulf and flatten Galveston. :-) Seemed like a good time to remind some newbies that the the BOC doesn't usually work like that.


On a somewhat related note, when is the last time a system originating in the BOC developed into a hurricane and made a beeline for the US Gulf Coast(anywhere from Key West to Brownsville)?
Quoting 696. swflurker:
Really? Another ULL in the gulf off SW FL. Can't catch a break on the heavy rain here in the Naples area. Not as bad as Colorado, but if we get any kind of tropical storm, we will be screwed!


What a difference a couple hundred miles makes. We have had below normal rainfall in Orlando lately.
Quoting 697. HurrMichaelOrl:


On a somewhat related note, when is the last time a system originating in the BOC developed into a hurricane and made a beeline for the US Gulf Coast(anywhere from Key West to Brownsville)?


Hurricane Brett 1999
Quoting 686. Ameister12:
Weird... 00z GFS no longer shows Humberto becoming a hurricane again, which it has been for the last several runs. Heck, it doesn't even show it becoming a decent tropical storm anymore.


Well it tries to but it's likely extratropical by this point:


14 years, wow. A homegrown BOC hurricane headed for the US is not at all a common outcome of these systems. I know Opal in 1995 was also one.
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
Wasn't Ingrid already supposed to have made landfall according to NHC and modeling forecasts?

Yep, should have made landfall yesterday, but her increase in structure and the shear and ridge to the north, combined to keep her offshore and moving about 100 miles further north than the point yesterday. Ingrid was supposed to move slightly NW, then make a hard left yesterday, and make landfall as a TS. Instead, it moved almost north for a while, then NNW, and now appears to be moving west of north, and is still a hurricane, although barely. I suspect that it will be a tropical storm and be off about 125 miles from predicted landfall. I want to see what Skye's site shows as success for both direction and intensity for Ingrid. Since it will probably make landfall as a TS, the intensity models will claim victory, regardless of that little matter about it becoming a hurricane in between. The track models will find some way to show that the general track was correct, but the landfall was off by a hair. I believe both the track and intensity models were horrible for Ingrid, as they have been for almost every storm this season. This makes me really nervous about how wrong they might be when we finally do get a big storm.
703. DDR
Good morning
we are really taking a beating from the itcz in Trinidad over the past 12 hours,it is currently raining with amounts nearing 3 inches for the said time period.
Despite their separation by land, Manuel and Ingrid appear to be one giant system, spinning in synchronicity.

Their dance is making my eyes dizzy ...

Where is all this moisture going? I hope not to Colorado.

Idk, off to bed. See y'all manana.

Ingrid....my head hurts

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 16 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
INGRID...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HUMBERTO IS LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE AZORES ISLANDS AND IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS
CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS AS IT TURNS
NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
WESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHERE A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE COULD FORM BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&
Japan Meteorological Agency
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MAN-YI (T1318)
13:00 PM JST September 16 2013
======================================

Overland Tochigi Prefecture

At 4:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Man-yi (985 hPa) located at 36.6N 139.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 35 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
350 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
250 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
Next Hour: 37.0N 140.5E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Storm) Fukushima Prefecture
11 HRS: 42.3N 145.7E - Extratropical Low East of Hokkaido
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
14 years, wow. A homegrown BOC hurricane headed for the US is not at all a common outcome of these systems. I know Opal in 1995 was also one.

Although even Opal was a TD off Cozumel before it crossed the Yucatan and became a TS. Brett is one of the few powerful hurricanes that were born strictly in the BOC, and it went to Texas, which is typical of real BOC storms.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE INGRID INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
100 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013

...INGRID EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 96.9W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM NE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES
Quoting 702. sar2401:

Yep, should have made landfall yesterday, but her increase in structure and the shear and ridge to the north, combined to keep her offshore and moving about 100 miles further north than the point yesterday.



E D I T
I don't guess that's disagreeing, depending on whether your interpretation in fact supports the ridge allowing it to come more northwards. Most everyone seems to have maintained that it's been the "firm" ridge that will keep Ingrid from coming more northerly, and with which I have disagreed. We'll see what she does during the day. Anyways, I'm off to hit the hay. Enjoyed it.


I would agree mostly entirely except for the part in bold. The fact that Ingrid has managed to keep gaining latitude is indeed indicative of a weaker ridge to its north, and that is what I've maintained for some time now. The western nose of the southeastern conus high has been on the weaker side, only 1008 to about 1012/14mb at times. In addition there's been a front, another weakness stuck in between that and the high pressure further north centered over the Dakotas and extending southwards into Nebraska.




The steering layer clearly shows the front/weakness and the flow. If Ingrid continues to gain some strength, the natural poleward movement inclination should help it get caught up into that flow towards that weakness and landfalling in southeast TX.

Yup, I've been told that's a stretch, lol, but guess what? Ingrid is still over water, and still gaining latitude. ;)
HURRICANE INGRID WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2013

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 19 47 NA NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION X 15 49 38 NA NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 48 69 29 15 NA NA NA
HURRICANE 52 15 2 1 NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 49 12 2 1 NA NA NA
HUR CAT 2 3 2 X X NA NA NA
HUR CAT 3 1 X X X NA NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 65KT 45KT 30KT 20KT NA NA NA


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

GFMX 270N 960W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

BROWNSVILLE TX 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

GFMX 250N 960W 34 7 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)

LA PESCO MX 34 44 32(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77)
LA PESCO MX 50 3 9(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
LA PESCO MX 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

TAMPICO MX 34 10 37(47) 2(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49)
TAMPICO MX 50 1 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
TAMPICO MX 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

TUXPAN MX 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)

VERACRUZ MX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)

$$
Japan Meteorological Agency
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MAN-YI (T1318)
14:00 PM JST September 16 2013
======================================

Overland Fukushima Prefecture

At 5:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Man-yi (985 hPa) located at 37.4N 140.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 35 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
350 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
250 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
Next Hour: 37.9N 141.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Storm) Miyagi Prefecture
this look like late October weather here for the USA
Quoting moonlightcowboy:



I would agree mostly entirely except for the part in bold. The fact that Ingrid has managed to keep gaining latitude is indeed indicative of a weaker ridge to its north, and that is what I've maintained for some time now. The western nose of the southeastern conus high has been on the weaker side, only 1008 to about 1012/14mb at times. In addition there's been a front, another weakness stuck in between that and the high pressure further north centered over the Dakotas and extending southwards into Nebraska.




The steering layer clearly shows the front/weakness and the flow. If Ingrid continues to gain some strength, the natural poleward movement inclination should help it get caught up into that flow towards that weakness and landfalling in southeast TX.

Yup, I've been told that's a stretch, lol, but guess what? Ingrid is still over water, and still gaining latitude. ;)

Well, it's still not making it to Texas but, if Ingrid was a 978 hurricane instead of a 987 to 999 mb hurricane, it might have been able to take advantage of those weaknesses. A characteristic of stroms this year has been their relatively high pressures compated to their winds. When you have even a 1010 high, that's a significant barrier against a 999 hurricane. Same thing with the low. The hurricane has to be strong enough to break through the ridge to feel the weakness in the trough. Here we are up to the "I" storm, and the best we've been able to do is Humberto with a 980 mb pressure, which is only average for a cat 1.

Looking at the GOM AVN, it sure looks like Ingrid's time of gaining latitude is over. Looks like it's down from 23.1 to about 22.6.

EDIT: No, in reponse your edit, I don't think the ridge was firm at all. If it was, it would have prevented Ingrid from gaining as much latitude as it has.
What made the ridge look better was the relatively high pressure of Ingrid. If it could have even gotten down to 980, I think it would have had a much better chance to get north and east, into the shallower and warmer waters of the Gulf.
El Nino could be what my area needs. I just noticed that the years 1998, 2002 and 2007 which were major floods (1998/2002) and record rainfall year (2007) either had El Nino the same year or the end of the previous year. I know it means a wet and cool winter, but it shows no effect during the spring/summer. It's just something for me to look forward too though. :)
16/0545 UTC 26.5N 42.5W TOO WEAK HUMBERTO -- Atlantic
Quoting 672. GatorWX:
Still out, darn!



One thing I've noticed is that whenever a system is close by the radar sites in Mexico, that particular site gest taken off line and this sign is seen. I have seen in it several years now.
It's not at 22.6 it's at 23.1 still. Center clearly visible on radar.
Quoting 722. weather12know:


One thing I've noticed is that whenever a system is close by the radar sites in Mexico, that particular site gest taken off line and this sign is seen. I have seen in it several years now.

Center is on the Brownsville radar though. Very visible.
000
SXUS74 KMEG 160632
RERMKL

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
0131 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT JACKSON...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 47 DEGREES WAS SET AT JACKSON
YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 48 SET IN 1961.

Link
16/0545 UTC 23.2N 96.7W T3.5/3.5 INGRID -- Atlantic
Ingrid remains at 65 kts in the 06z update.

AL, 10, 2013091606, , BEST, 0, 232N, 968W, 65, 988, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 15, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INGRID, D,
2013SEP16 054500 3.4 991.1 53.0 3.2 2.9 2.9

Dvorak from satellite service and division's Advance Dvorak website not support hurricane for INGRID
Manuel is gone.

EP, 13, 2013091606, , BEST, 0, 204N, 1052W, 25, 1002, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1004, 60, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MANUEL, M,
I hate these late night blogs where no one's awake to read them.

Here.
Quoting KoritheMan:
I hate these late night blogs where no one's awake to read them.

Here.


Would the source of the shear be from ex-Manuel or just the collision of the 2 systems
Ingrid continues to battle with strong westerly shear, but the shear appears to gradually lessen. Slight strengthening is possible before making landfall near Tampico in the next several hours.

Quoting 731. AussieStorm:


Would the source of the shear be from ex-Manuel?


Part of it is, but since it's already inland and decaying, I really don't think all of it is.
Already above tampicos latitude so it's more of la pesca hit imo
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #43
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MAN-YI (T1318)
15:00 PM JST September 16 2013
======================================

Overland Miyagi Prefecture

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Man-yi (985 hPa) located at 38.4N 141.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 35 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
350 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
250 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak intensity: OVERLAND

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 51.1N 154.8E - Extratropical Low In Sea of Okhotsk
AL, 94, 2013091606, , BEST, 0, 266N, 426W, 35, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 160, 0, 0, 100, 1015, 150, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, M,
737. JLPR2
Looks like Ingrid is leaving behind its convection, at least at the moment. LLC is easy to spot on the western edge of the convection.

Quoting 735. HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #43
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MAN-YI (T1318)
15:00 PM JST September 16 2013
======================================

Overland Miyagi Prefecture

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Man-yi (985 hPa) located at 38.4N 141.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 35 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
350 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
250 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak intensity: OVERLAND

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 51.1N 154.8E - Extratropical Low In Sea of Okhotsk


Rather large diameter of gale force winds, I see. I don't think that's always quite so typical for a high-latitude cyclone making the transition to extratropical.
The center Is coming out a lil bit better on Brownsville long range radar.
Quoting 737. JLPR2:
Looks like Ingrid is leaving behind its convection, at least at the moment. LLC is easy to spot on the western edge of the convection.



From my blog just now:

An alternate scenario is that continued shear causes Ingrid to weaken to a tropical storm later today.

:D
Quoting KoritheMan:


Part of it is, but since it's already inland and decaying, I really don't think all of it is.


But then again, Ingrid is the stronger system so you'd think her outflow would effect Manuel more than Manuel on Ingrid.
Quoting 741. AussieStorm:


But then again, Ingrid is the stronger system so you'd think her outflow would effect Manuel more than Manuel on Ingrid.


Manuel was always the larger of the two systems, since the bulk of the monsoonal gyre that comprised these cyclones was in the east Pacific. It would make sense, then, that Manuel was a negative deterrent even though Ingrid was stronger.
744. TXCWC
Low level center just off shore Link


Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23
15:00 PM JST September 16 2013
======================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 15.6N 113.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.5N 112.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22
15:00 PM JST September 16 2013
======================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 17.5N 132.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 18.1N 130.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
747. VR46L
Looks like the Pocket of dry air coming down from the CONUS has sealed a Mexican Landfall . It was a Close thing . Hope the moisture makes it north to Texas and not Go and dive Back into the Gulf

Japan Meteorological Agency
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MAN-YI (T1318)
16:00 PM JST September 16 2013
======================================

Overland Iwate Prefecture

At 7:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Man-yi (985 hPa) located at 39.2N 141.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 38 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
350 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
250 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
Next Hour: 39.7N 142.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Storm) Iwate Prefecture
750. VR46L
A dive South?

Man-yi is rapidly deteriorating as it passes over Honshu.

752. VR46L
Man-yi is rapidly deteriorating as it passes over Honshu.



yup. not wasting time passing through either. Almost in the Pacific Ocean already.
BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
200 AM PDT MON SEP 16 2013

...MANUEL DISSIPATES OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 105.3W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
REMNANTS OF MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
200 AM PDT MON SEP 16 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT MANUEL NO
LONGER HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE.
THE CYCLONE HAS DISSIPATED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO...AND THIS
WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT LOW- TO MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF MANUEL SHOULD DRIFT WESTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE COAST OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FOR A FEW DAYS. THE
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK SURFACE LOW COULD FORM IN THIS
AREA IN A FEW DAYS...AND THE REMNANTS WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS
OF REGENERATION.

EVEN THOUGH MANUEL HAS DISSIPATED...VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FOR ANOTHER DAY OR
SO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND
MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL PLEASE SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 20.6N 105.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG
BULLETIN
HURRICANE INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
400 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013

...CENTER OF INGRID APPROACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 97.1W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM NNE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES
HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
400 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013

ALTHOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS
RELAXED A LITTLE OVER INGRID...THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE HURRICANE
HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH
THE CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB
RANGE FROM 55 KT TO 77 KT...AND THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY. IT APPEARS THAT THE WINDOW FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL IS CLOSING...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES
INLAND. THE NHC WIND FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
LGEM PREDICTION.

GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE CENTER FIXES...ALONG WITH THE
BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D RADAR...INDICATE THAT THE CENTER HAS GAINED A
LITTLE MORE LATITUDE AND THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/6.
HOWEVER...THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST A LITTLE LATER TODAY AND A TURN TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST BY TONIGHT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH STEERING BY THE
FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS ALONG WITH
INTERACTION WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO. THE LATTER FEATURE
TYPICALLY INDUCES A LEFTWARD BEND IN THE MOTION FOR LANDFALLING
TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THIS REGION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
LITTLE NORTH OF THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOSE TO THE LATEST
HWRF MODEL TRACK.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND STORM SURGE THREATS...TORRENTIAL RAINS
FROM BOTH INGRID AND THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST
OF MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 23.4N 97.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 23.3N 98.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
24H 17/0600Z 22.8N 99.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/1800Z 22.3N 99.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 18/0600Z 22.0N 100.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Oh no...ANOTHER MX STORM FORMING IN THE CARIBBEAN?????? Come onnnnnnn! TX needs this! Im getting tired of this. As im sure you all are too.
New burst of convection over the low-level center.

Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. I'm up extra early, couldn't sleep. I really need to de-stress. It's 73 degrees, feels like 77 already, another hot day in the 90's with heat index around 100. No rain in sight, a tease of 20% later in the week, same as always.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Eggs Benedict with asparagus and a creamy low fat shrimp sauce, whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, egg burritos with cheese and chorizo, Boston Cream Pie Pancakes, cinnamon streusel coffee cake, fluffy scrambled eggs with bacon or sausage links, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
Getting some nibbles at 180 hrs from 0Z GEFS:
looks like south mexico is gonna get hit again later in the week
Quoting 762. aislinnpaps:
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. I'm up extra early, couldn't sleep. I really need to de-stress. It's 73 degrees, feels like 77 already, another hot day in the 90's with heat index around 100. No rain in sight, a tease of 20% later in the week, same as always.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Eggs Benedict with asparagus and a creamy low fat shrimp sauce, whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, egg burritos with cheese and chorizo, Boston Cream Pie Pancakes, cinnamon streusel coffee cake, fluffy scrambled eggs with bacon or sausage links, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!



One of everything please!
up earlier but not much to add good morning
seems to have a landfaller i was hopefully she glided south back to the boc and spinned down
771. beell
Quoting 667. moonlightcowboy:



Thanks, Sar. The model explanation wasn't necessary. Fully aware of what CLIPS is. Been following this stuff a few years myself. Just trying to be positive for folks that need some rain.


Appreciate the positive thoughts for Texas, MLC. And the BAM's trajectory tracks are consistent with monsoonal moisture flowing north around an eastward retreat of the "much discussed/cussed" ridge. Some folks are probably not familiar with the "ring-of-fire" convection around a ridge of high pressure. Maybe not too fiery with this one, but effective at moisture transport.

In addition, the remains of Ingrid's moisture and the monsoon circulation keeps Texas in a long-fetch easterly flow. All that points to better than average chances of rain towards mid-week and into the weekend.

As long as we're wishing, a west-coast trough and subsequent retreat of the ridge would also benefit Colorado. If it does not retreat as much as forecast, some of this moisture could be shunted farther west and north over Colorado.

(and for the record, my landfall prediction was biased to the north a bit as well. "a landfall closer to Brownsville than Tampico"-a fail).
772. yoboi
Quoting 750. VR46L:
A dive South?




sure..
how about them dallas drugboys again lol losers as usual
Quoting 643. flsky:

Boulder County has been declared a disaster area for infrastructure and individual assistance. I understand now, that 12 other counties are being considered. I might be spending Halloween in CO.


I pray FEMA will help with their threshold of damage!
Quoting 771. beell:


Appreciate the positive thoughts for Texas, MLC. And the BAM's trajectory tracks are consistent with monsoonal moisture flowing north around an eastward retreat of the "much discussed/cussed" ridge. Some folks are probably not familiar with the "ring-of-fire" convection around a ridge of high pressure. Maybe not too fiery, but effective at moisture transport.

In addition, the remains of Ingrid and the monsoon circulation keeps Texas in a long-fetch easterly flow. All that points to better than average chances of rain towards mid-week and into the weekend.

As long as we're wishing, a west-coast trough and subsequent retreat of the ridge would also benefit Colorado. If it does not retreat as much as forecast, some of this moisture could be shunted farther west and north over Colorado.

(and for the record, my landfall prediction was biased to the north a bit as well. "a landfall closer to Brownsville than Tampico"-a fail).




Well, *something* has made landfall, but *something* has not yet.
Quoting 762. aislinnpaps:
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. I'm up extra early, couldn't sleep. I really need to de-stress. It's 73 degrees, feels like 77 already, another hot day in the 90's with heat index around 100. No rain in sight, a tease of 20% later in the week, same as always.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Eggs Benedict with asparagus and a creamy low fat shrimp sauce, whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, egg burritos with cheese and chorizo, Boston Cream Pie Pancakes, cinnamon streusel coffee cake, fluffy scrambled eggs with bacon or sausage links, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!


All I'm having is an English Muffin, and two soft boiled eggs, wtih coffee!
Quoting 765. guygee:
Getting some nibbles at 180 hrs from 0Z GEFS:
What does this represent?
Morning everyone!

On to the next...



Off to Spain!! I'll post pictures on my blog in a few days if anyone is interested. Keep it real, ; )

Forecast for Barcelona:

Mid 70's/mid 60's, other than Tues @ 40%, no chance of rain. Yeeeah! San Diego-ish. See ya!
Quoting 777. interstatelover7165:
What does this represent?
The regions inside the closed contours are where the individual ensemble members are predicting below 1004 mb surface pressure (or as the chart says, above 1044 mb, which obviously is not the case here) at 180 hrs from when the model ran.
Safe trip Gator!
the pipeline seems to have other areas of interest too first up the nw carib. gator should finally dry out
Tampa AFD this morning about possible development.


HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE TAIL END OF THE WORK WEEK...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PREVAILING
EASTERLY FLOW WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEA BREEZE DRIVEN
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL WEAKEN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND STALLS OUT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND NEXT MONDAY. OF NOTE...THE
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS TO DIFFERING DEGREES ALL SHOW A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WITH PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THESE TRENDS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.
783. VR46L
Quoting 775. redwagon:




Well, *something* has made landfall, but *something* has not yet.


Na the actual centre is still a while away from Landfall... but an interesting Blow up just south of the TX Border..

Ingrid isn't as organized as humberto was. :/

Everyone have a great Monday!
99W: The next storm in the west pacific?
Humberto slowly gaining back convection.

Quoting 783. VR46L:


Na the actual centre is still a while away from Landfall... but an interesting Blow up just south of the TX Border..



Looks to me as if the LLC de-coupled and is making landfall as we speak. The new blow-up is over top of the LLC.
Its all your fault Manuel :P
791. VR46L
Quoting 788. Torito:
Humberto slowly gaining back convection.



Just needs to get his clothes on properly
From Miami NWS Disco


THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS INTERESTING ABOUT A WEEK FROM NOW AS
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD LOW OR TROUGH DEVELOPING. PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS TOOK A LOW NORTHEASTWARD NEAR OR ACROSS SOUTH FL AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIED IN THE MODELS ACROSS THE EASTERN SATES.
HOWEVER, THE LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO NOT AMPLIFY
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AS MUCH AND LEAVE LOW PRESSURE OR A BROAD
TROUGH HUNG UP ACROSS SOUTH FL FOR SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK. IT IS
WAY TOO SOON TO HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE IN ONE SCENARIO, BUT IT`S
SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THIS PATTERN WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE COPIOUS RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH OR WITHOUT ANY
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.
793. IKE
Not much on either latest GFS or ECMWF.

Day 108 of the season. 75 days to go.

Totals....

9-2-0. Plus a TD.
Quoting 789. PensacolaDoug:


Looks to me as if the LLC de-coupled and is making landfall as we speak. The new blow-up is over top of the LLC.


Yea when a cane or storm is so disorganized, its sometimes hard to tell where the LLC actually is...

Ill be back later, maybe 11 ish.
795. VR46L
Quoting 766. meteorite:
looks like south mexico is gonna get hit again later in the week


Actually quite a possibility ... The Ghost of Manu and Ingrid will leave a low pressure trough behind and a poor TW only will need to come along and spark a storm IMO .
796. VR46L
Quoting 789. PensacolaDoug:


Looks to me as if the LLC de-coupled and is making landfall as we speak. The new blow-up is over top of the LLC.


Really ?

Shrug ..I guess she will be on land by time VIS or RGB are available
I hope MX isnt hit again...once again...TX needs the rain. A stray afternoon scattered shower isnt gonna cut it.
798. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 16 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
INGRID...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HUMBERTO IS LOCATED ABOUT 1075 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT..
.OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS
AS IT TURNS NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHERE A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Ingrid's coming ashore
Quoting 796. VR46L:


Really ?

Shrug ..I guess she will be on land by time VIS or RGB are available
Can be seen on Brownsville radar.
801. IKE
I would say it's made landfall....


Good morning. I guess Ingrid is making landfall as we speak. Seems to have been struggling with shear as well. The good news is that on radar it appear that Ingridis bringing a few rains to Texas where rain is really needed.
99W in the WPAC has the aid of an upper anti-cyclone



JMA already have it as a TD and it is expected to strengthen quite quickly via the models. So will definitely be the next storm of interest once Ingrid has made landfall/dissipated.

So was she technically a hurricane or TS at landfall?
Quoting 805. JrWeathermanFL:
So was she technically a hurricane or TS at landfall?


I'm thinking TS. I've been wrong before however.
One last thing before I head out, weird! Has that two systems look like yesterday.

I wonder what's next??



Happy Blogging!
ir shows extremely heavy rainfall ass/ with the coc
Quoting 807. GatorWX:
One last thing before I head out, weird! Has that two systems look like yesterday.

I wonder what's next??



Happy Blogging!


Oh com'on man. Take your smartphone with you like I do lol. You can't be away a single second on this historic season. You might miss the next big thing. Anyway be safe and have a great day Gator...




I wonder what's next??






Tune in next week...Same Bat time, Same Bat channel!
Quoting 805. JrWeathermanFL:
So was she technically a hurricane or TS at landfall?


I guess this will be ground for debate in the comming days. One thing is for sure. Ingrid took a serious beating from Manuel. I think an investigation preceded by a restraining order is appropiate here.
Quoting 810. PensacolaDoug:

I wonder what's next??




Tune in,next week...Same Bat time, Same Bat channel!


Same lame hurricane bat season... zzzzzz .....
Quoting 811. CaneHunter031472:


I guess this will be ground for debate in the comming days. One thing is for sure. Irene took a serious beating from Manuel. I think an investigation preceded by a restraining order is appropiate here.



Ya mean Ingrid. But yeah.
What a bust of a storm...

Quoting 813. PensacolaDoug:



Ya mean Ingrid. But yeah.


OMG... I must have traveled in time lol... Please bear with me It's Monday morning :(
Good Morning/Evening.

Halfway through the season, halfway through my TS prediction number.

Ha ha funnel!
818. IKE
"It made landfall? As it TS???????"


820. IKE
I didn't know they had downgraded it...oh my......season is a busters will be out in full force today...so much for Bastardi's thoughts of it being a cat 2 or 3. Think he said at landfall too.

...INGRID WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MAKES LANDFALL
NEAR LA PESCA...
...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING INLAND...


7:00 AM CDT Mon Sep 16

Location: 23.8°N 97.8°W

Moving: WNW at 10 mph

Min pressure: 991 mb

Max sustained: 65 mph

I consider a 13/6/2 year to be normal. That's just my opinion. Only 4/4/2 left :P
822. IKE

Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
I consider a 13/6/2 year to be normal. That's just my opinion. Only 4/4/2 left :P
I wonder when the last season was without a major hurricane in the ATL? I think it will happen though.
Thanks for the link to the storm hitting Japan.

P.S. how do you make boston cream pie pancakes?
Ingrid won't do this, I was just thinking...
Has there ever been a storm to make landfall and turn ang go back out to sea?
825. beell
Quoting 820. IKE:
I didn't know they had downgraded it...oh my......season is a busters will be out in full force today...so much for Bastardi's thoughts of it being a cat 2 or 3. Think he said at landfall too.

...INGRID WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MAKES LANDFALL
NEAR LA PESCA...
...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING INLAND...


7:00 AM CDT Mon Sep 16

Location: 23.8N 97.8W

Moving: WNW at 10 mph

Min pressure: 991 mb

Max sustained: 65 mph



Thought last night's 10PM CDT discussion was a little jacked up regarding landfall.

HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...AFTER A SLIGHT JOG TO THE NORTHWEST EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...INGRID
APPEARS TO HAVE RETURNED TO ITS PREVIOUS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE
OF 290/05 KT. AS A RESULT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING ARE REQUIRED. HURRICANE INGRID SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF
A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF LANDFALL...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR IN ABOUT
24 HOURS OR SO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCA...

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Quoting 824. JrWeathermanFL:
Ingrid won't do this, I was just thinking...
Has there ever been a storm to make landfall and turn ang go back out to sea?


yes
Other than Ingrid, the tropics in the Atlantic Basin are VERY quiet. Love this. And the SST and TCHP are beginning to cool off now. They will continue to level off. This is great news!!
1994 had no Majors in the Atl.
Strongest was Florence 110mph.
We went 7/3/0 that year.
829. IKE

Quoting beell:


Thought last night's 10PM CDT discussion was a little jacked up regarding landfall.

HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...AFTER A SLIGHT JOG TO THE NORTHWEST EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...INGRID
APPEARS TO HAVE RETURNED TO ITS PREVIOUS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE
OF 290/05 KT. AS A RESULT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING ARE REQUIRED. HURRICANE INGRID SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF
A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF LANDFALL...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR IN ABOUT
24 HOURS OR SO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCA...

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

lol.....oops!
830. IKE

Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
1994 had no Majors in the Atl.
Strongest was Florence 110mph.
We went 7/3/0 that year.
Thanks.
Some models are showing 20 plus inches of rain across FL. Something to watch as the are the NHC is watching in the NW Caribbean is forecast to move into the SW Gulf then ride NE very slowly toward FL.

GGEM

SUPER HAPPY this morning. Some showers are migrating into the region here. Yes, they are light, but it is something! :)

Good Morning Class!
Quoting 831. StormTrackerScott:
Some models are showing 20 plus inches of rain across FL. Something to watch as the are the NHC is watching in the NW Caribbean is forecast to move into the SW Gulf then ride NE very slowly toward FL.

GGEM


I'm very jealous Scott!!!
Quoting 833. HurricaneHunterJoe:
Good Morning Class!

Morning Joe. :) Up early I see!
By the way the GFS & Euro show the same set up for FL. Of course the downcasters are out today the fact of the matter is it is possible that we could see 2 to 3 system form in the Gulf & Caribbean and head NNE or NE toward FL.

NAVGEM


06Z


0Z
test
Quoting 827. SouthernIllinois:
Other than Ingrid, the tropics in the Atlantic Basin are VERY quiet. Love this. And the SST and TCHP are beginning to cool off now. They will continue to level off. This is great news!!



Please show some evidence of what you are stating. The Gulf and Caribbean waters still appear to be more than warm enough to support tropical cyclone development.
In order for Fall to arrive in FL we have to release some of this Latent Heat across the Gulf & Caribbean which could take another 6 to 8 weeks to complete.

I'm sure we'll hear a mountain of talk here today about Ingrid being a "bust", along with a lot of complaining because the storm didn't max out as a Cat 2 or 3 as some thought/hoped it might. The typical ribbing of forecasters who were too conservative or too aggressive will be lobbed back and forth. And that's all fine, I guess. But I hope when folks do that, they at least pause for a moment to consider the fact that dozens of our neighbors to the south have already been killed by the Manuel/Ingrid combo, and that many more are likely to die before all is said and done. Hundreds will lose their lives, their families, their farms, their orchards, their homes, or their livelihoods. Countless others will be greatly inconvenienced by the loss of expensive-to-replace bridges and roads and pieces of the utility infrastructure . Thousands on both coasts have been evacuated, and now sit in overcrowded shelters waiting for the rains to abate and the floodwaters to recede and the steep slopes to cease sliding to find out what awaits them at home--or whether they even still have one. So, again, enjoy tracking the storms. But every now and then, stop to think what those storms mean to those affected. Please.
Quoting 838. Wunderwood:



Please show some evidence of what you are stating. The Gulf and Caribbean waters still appear to be more than warm enough to support tropical cyclone development.

Oh they are still more than warm enough. I never said that they weren't. I just said that they are cooling off now. That makes me happy.
Cooler waters mean less latent heat storms can take advantage of. Weaker storms are better. Less destruction potential!
Quoting 835. SouthernIllinois:

Morning Joe. :) Up early I see!


Good Morning Natalie! Yes Up way too early! Have to leave in a hour and a half to get to 3 medical appointments at the V.A. Medical Center in La Jolla,CA....82 miles from me home in the boonies.
844. VR46L
Quoting 836. StormTrackerScott:
By the way the GFS & Euro show the same set up for FL. Of course the downcasters are out today the fact of the matter is it is possible that we could see 2 to 3 system form in the Gulf & Caribbean and head NNE or NE toward FL.

NAVGEM


06Z


0Z


Is that gonna end up being one of them tropical gyre thingees?
Quoting 844. VR46L:


Looks like Levi nailed that landfall point if me memory serves me.
847. VR46L
Quoting 846. HurricaneHunterJoe:


Looks like Levi nailed that landfall point if me memory serves me.


Levi is very Good !
I'm actually thankful that neither storm made landfall as a hurricane (Ingrid and Manuel) for Mexico's sake.

If one of the two weren't there, Ingrid or Manuel would have been much stronger. For instance, if Manuel was never there, we might be looking at a major making landfall this morning.
Quoting 844. VR46L:


At least a little rain in S Texas! How inland is Harlingen TX? They grow a lot of fruit there.

SouthernIllinois, I just checked and sea surface temps in the Gulf and Caribbean are at 85 degrees and higher. No evidence of cooling at this time.
Quoting 839. StormTrackerScott:
In order for Fall to arrive in FL we have to release some of this Latent Heat across the Gulf & Caribbean which could take another 6 to 8 weeks to complete.



The Gulf/SW Atlantic will be far from being favorable for tropical development during that time period. An upper level trough should dominate the area during this time period, bringing very unfavorable upper level conditions.





852. VR46L
Quoting 840. Neapolitan:
I'm sure we'll hear a mountain of talk here today about Ingrid being a "bust", along with a lot of complaining because the storm didn't max out as a Cat 2 or 3 as some thought/hoped it might. The typical ribbing of forecasters who were too conservative or too aggressive will be lobbed back and forth. And that's all fine, I guess. But I hope when folks do that, they at least pause for a moment to consider the fact that dozens of our neighbors to the south have already been killed by the Manuel/Ingrid combo, and that many more are likely to die before all is said and done. Hundreds will lose their lives, their families, their farms, their orchards, their homes, or their livelihoods. Countless others will be greatly inconvenienced by the loss of expensive-to-replace bridges and roads and pieces of the utility infrastructure . Thousands on both coasts have been evacuated, and now sit in overcrowded shelters waiting for the rains to abate and the floodwaters to recede and the steep slopes to cease sliding to find out what awaits them at home--or whether they even still have one. So, again, enjoy tracking the storms. But every now and then, stop to think what those storms mean to those affected. Please.


Who's Heart would not bleed with the images out of Mexico over the last 24 hrs .

But how many lives will Manuel/ ingrid save as long as some of their moisture gets North to Texas ... Afterall Drought is the bigger killer in the long term..
Quoting 839. StormTrackerScott:
In order for Fall to arrive in FL we have to release some of this Latent Heat across the Gulf & Caribbean which could take another 6 to 8 weeks to complete.

Or it will take one strong hurricane coming out of the Gulf. In 2005, fall started in Florida with the passage of Wilma. I remember it went from the 90s with high humidity to the mid 60s in a matter of hours as the hurricane drew in dry air from the continent.
I'm anxious to see what's going to happen up here in Jacksonville, as I hear things might be coming in this general direction from the Gulf the next week or so.. Should be interesting to see what happens!!
Spawn of Ingrid heading southwest. Might this loop around and head back into gulf. There is modeling support for tropical troubles in both Florida and central to north central texas coast in the 6-10
Quoting 849. HurricaneHunterJoe:


At least a little rain in S Texas! How inland is Harlingen TX? They grow a lot of fruit there.
30-35 miles
Is that second piece of energy SE of Ingrid the entity models picked up on saying we need to look out for??
From this morning's Area Forecast Discussion, Miami NWS office. Something to watch...

THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS INTERESTING ABOUT A WEEK FROM NOW AS
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD LOW OR TROUGH DEVELOPING. PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS TOOK A LOW NORTHEASTWARD NEAR OR ACROSS SOUTH FL AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIED IN THE MODELS ACROSS THE EASTERN SATES.
HOWEVER, THE LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO NOT AMPLIFY
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AS MUCH AND LEAVE LOW PRESSURE OR A BROAD
TROUGH HUNG UP ACROSS SOUTH FL FOR SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK
. IT IS
WAY TOO SOON TO HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE IN ONE SCENARIO, BUT IT`S
SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THIS PATTERN WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE COPIOUS RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH OR WITHOUT ANY
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.


STILL BORING.
Quoting 848. JrWeathermanFL:
I'm actually thankful that neither storm made landfall as a hurricane (Ingrid and Manuel) for Mexico's sake.

If one of the two weren't there, Ingrid or Manuel would have been much stronger. For instance, if Manuel was never there, we might be looking at a major making landfall this morning.
I believe Manuel was a hurricane at landfall.
Good Morning All-
Seeing some comments pop up regarding some model support for possible activity in the Gulf in the next week or so that may impact FL - can anyone share? Are we talking West Coast (SWFL)?
IMO, the LLC of ingrid is right between the original part and the new burst of convection to the north of it, so about 97,22.5....
863. DDR
Good morning
almost 4 inches here in Trinidad the past 24 hours,bringing my total rainfall to 11 inches for September so far with plenty more on the way.
T wave approaching 55 W with a decent amount of convection.Certainly a low-rider with a possibility to watch down the road.Conditions dont look that good for development, until it passes 70 west

CaribBoy - Should miss you by a good margin

Humberto still gaining convection, even though it is doing so slowly.

Quoting 856. Hhunter:
30-35 miles


Hope they get some free water
However, humberto still has this dry air to deal with.

Quoting 788. Torito:
Humberto slowly gaining back convection.

It looks like its on fire..:)

It really looks bad for the folks in Mexico..My prayers to them, as I know all to well what its like to be flooded out..


Tampico, right now. webcam
Quoting 857. bryanfromkyleTX:
Is that second piece of energy SE of Ingrid the entity models picked up on saying we need to look out for??


This is my question as well.....
Beell?
Beell?
Anyone?
871. VR46L
What a messy Gal!!!

Quoting 840. Neapolitan:
I'm sure we'll hear a mountain of talk here today about Ingrid being a "bust", along with a lot of complaining because the storm didn't max out as a Cat 2 or 3 as some thought/hoped it might. The typical ribbing of forecasters who were too conservative or too aggressive will be lobbed back and forth. And that's all fine, I guess. But I hope when folks do that, they at least pause for a moment to consider the fact that dozens of our neighbors to the south have already been killed by the Manuel/Ingrid combo, and that many more are likely to die before all is said and done. Hundreds will lose their lives, their families, their farms, their orchards, their homes, or their livelihoods. Countless others will be greatly inconvenienced by the loss of expensive-to-replace bridges and roads and pieces of the utility infrastructure . Thousands on both coasts have been evacuated, and now sit in overcrowded shelters waiting for the rains to abate and the floodwaters to recede and the steep slopes to cease sliding to find out what awaits them at home--or whether they even still have one. So, again, enjoy tracking the storms. But every now and then, stop to think what those storms mean to those affected. Please.


Keep your sermons for Sunday morning mass please.
Puerto vallarta now
Quoting 871. VR46L:
What a messy Gal!!!



Yes, messy!
But what will the blob moving away from the other blob do?
Quoting 868. hydrus:
It looks like its on fire..:)

It really looks bad for the folks in Mexico..My prayers to them, as I know all to well what its like to be flooded out..


I believe that TX will get some rain from the remnants of this system though, which is a good thing. And yes, I wish all of the people affected by this storm well.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23
21:00 PM JST September 16 2013
======================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 16.2N 112.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.4N 112.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22
21:00 PM JST September 16 2013
======================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 17.9N 131.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 6 knots

Dvorak intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 18.0N 130.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #45
Storm Warning
DEVELOPING LOW, FORMER TC MAN-YI (T1318)
21:00 PM JST September 16 2013
======================================

East of Hokkaido Prefecture

At 12:00 PM UTC, Extratropical Low, Former Man-yi (980 hPa) located at 42.0N 145.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots. The low is reported as moving northeast at 40 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
400 NM from the center in east quadrant
300 NM from the center in west quadrant

This is the final tropical cyclone advisory from the Japan Meteorological Agency..
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ODETTE
5:00 PM PhST September 16 2013
=================================================

The Low Pressure Area (LPA) east of Casiguran has developed into a tropical depression and was named "ODETTE"

At 4:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Odette (1004 hPa) located at 17.2N 132.1E or 930 km east of Casiguran has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 4 knots.

Additional Information
========================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 5- 0 mm per hour (moderate to heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression "ODETTE" will not yet affect any part of the country. However, it will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon that will bring moderate to occasionally heavy rains and thunderstorms over Metro Manila, central Luzon, CALABARZON, and Occidental Mindoro.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Quoting 874. ihave27windows:


Yes, messy!
But what will the blob moving away from the other blob do?


We need Grothar to answer that question... :/
G'morning from Central OK,

Here its grey and rumbling outside, with a good chance of getting some wet stuff as the front pushes through. Gives us a temporary respite from the above average temps, as the heat returns a little later this week, then followed by another chance of rain towards the weekend.

Ingrid has wandered onshore at La Pesca, and is expected to dump more rain in the region. :(

Folks in Southern Texas got a little bit which is nice to see. Even nicer is seeing CO drying out after the deluge. :)

Manuel, at least what's left of him, is surfing the waves and promising to continue pumping moisture into NW Mexico for the rest of the week. Hopefully not too much for Mexico, and a bit more for Texas.

Estimated rainfall, last 24 hours from "los gemelos mal"


881. VR46L
Quoting 864. superpete:
T wave approaching 55 W with a decent amount of convection.Certainly a low-rider with a possibility to watch down the road.Conditions dont look that good for development, until it passes 70 west

CaribBoy - Should miss you by a good margin



Shhh .. If he thinks there is a possibility he is not so grumpy ... If no possibility He gets Very grumpy....

Quoting 863. DDR:
Good morning
almost 4 inches here in Trinidad the past 24 hours,bringing my total rainfall to 11 inches for September so far with plenty more on the way.


Don't tell CaribBoy...it may break his heart
Quoting 840. Neapolitan:
I'm sure we'll hear a mountain of talk here today about Ingrid being a "bust", along with a lot of complaining because the storm didn't max out as a Cat 2 or 3 as some thought/hoped it might. The typical ribbing of forecasters who were too conservative or too aggressive will be lobbed back and forth. And that's all fine, I guess. But I hope when folks do that, they at least pause for a moment to consider the fact that dozens of our neighbors to the south have already been killed by the Manuel/Ingrid combo, and that many more are likely to die before all is said and done. Hundreds will lose their lives, their families, their farms, their orchards, their homes, or their livelihoods. Countless others will be greatly inconvenienced by the loss of expensive-to-replace bridges and roads and pieces of the utility infrastructure . Thousands on both coasts have been evacuated, and now sit in overcrowded shelters waiting for the rains to abate and the floodwaters to recede and the steep slopes to cease sliding to find out what awaits them at home--or whether they even still have one. So, again, enjoy tracking the storms. But every now and then, stop to think what those storms mean to those affected. Please.



Very well said, Neo.
Well, hopefully we can get "some" rain (albiet not 10+ inches like the GEM is indicating) over the next few weeks here in coastal Brevard County. I think some of us in Melbourne are roughly at 30% of their normal rainfall for the wet season thus far. Parts of south Florida have been, in general, pretty dry as well?
Quoting 868. hydrus:
It looks like its on fire..:)

It really looks bad for the folks in Mexico..My prayers to them, as I know all to well what its like to be flooded out..


A good Ascat sure would be helpful about now to help us figure out what we're looking at.....
Interesting Water Vapor across the Atlantic this am..

After only 1.5 inches of rain in the 16 months from the March 2012 hailstorm and August 1, 2013, the lower RGV of Texas has had (generally)4 or 5 inches since August 1st from these series of tropical rains.

We're forecast to get up to 2 more inches in the next 24 hours, with locally as much as 5 inches?

Very grateful for these rains. We needed the deep moisture. Unfortunately, we still need a lot of precip into our lakes upstream (Falcon and Amistad) and that has to fall into an area N and W of Del Rio to get into those reservoirs. Many, many farmers in South Texas have absolutely ZERO water allocated for 2013-14 crop production. I'm one of those.

The area of Tamualipas State that is getting pounded in Mexico produces a huge % of the hot peppers that are exported to the US from now until January/Feb. Then, up to a hundred loads/day of onions from mid-January to April. Those crops will be affected, obviously, but the lakes in those areas (roughly bounded by Tampico to Mante to Zaragoza) needed to be filled in a bad way. Long term, this big rain event will be very beneficial (on average) to that area's producers. Obviously there will be some unfortunate exceptions.
Quoting 880. daddyjames:
G'morning from Central OK,

Here its grey and rumbling outside, with a good chance of getting some wet stuff as the front pushes through. Gives us a temporary respite from the above average temps, as the heat returns a little later this week, then followed by another chance of rain towards the weekend.

Ingrid has wandered onshore at La Pesca, and is expected to dump more rain in the region. :(

Folks in Southern Texas got a little bit which is nice to see. Even nicer is seeing CO drying out after the deluge. :)

Manuel, at least what's left of him, is surfing the waves and promising to continue pumping moisture into NW Mexico for the rest of the week. Hopefully not too much for Mexico, and a bit more for Texas.

Estimated rainfall, last 24 hours from "los gemelos mal"


Good morning Big Daddy Cool..
Quoting 851. MississippiWx:


The Gulf/SW Atlantic will be far from being favorable for tropical development during that time period. An upper level trough should dominate the area during this time period, bringing very unfavorable upper level conditions.


MississippiWx, Euro does develop a TS east of the Bahamas by Saturday, takes it NE and toward eastern Newfoundland by next Tuesday as an extratropical storm. However, the Euro continues to indicate moisture and lower pressure in the Gulf and NW Caribbean in its wake. I'm not ready to take your bold statement as gospel.
Quoting 885. redwagon:


A good Ascat sure would be helpful about now to help us figure out what we're looking at.....
Indeed. October will be interesting.
Quoting 888. hydrus:
Good morning Big Daddy Cool..


Top o' the morning to you hydrus, how are things in your neck of the woods?
Quoting 886. pcola57:
Interesting Water Vapor across the Atlantic this am..

That wave east of the leseer antilles reminds me of Matthew of 2010.
What a mess!
Quoting 872. luvtogolf:


Keep your sermons for Sunday morning mass please.
richard noggon...that was just rude.....
Quoting 889. Wunderwood:



Yeah I agree especially now since all the models develope atleast an area of weak low pressure in the Gulf. Also the models are indicating several lows forming in the Gulf & Caribbean and riding NE over FL and the NW Bahamas. Fact of the matter is a very active pattern is setting up for FL one which could create a very dangerous flood threat down the road.
Notice the Western Caribbean Sea.

Quoting 892. allancalderini:
That wave east of the leseer antilles reminds me of Matthew of 2010.


Been keeping an eye on that allan..
It does seem a bit sneeky and entering a prime area..
Anything is possible this season..
The un-predictable..
By the way Ingrid looks like she just might make a rain disaster for folks in Mexico.. :(
Quoting 884. sabres:
Well, hopefully we can get "some" rain (albiet not 10+ inches like the GEM is indicating) over the next few weeks here in coastal Brevard County. I think some of us in Melbourne are roughly at 30% of their normal rainfall for the wet season thus far. Parts of south Florida have been, in general, pretty dry as well?


Just because your location is dry doesn't mean the rest of are. Infact the only dry county in FL is Brevard County all other areas are well above average for rainfall really since April 1st.
We have once again Humberto.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al942013_al092013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201309161329
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
Key West to West Palm Beach and beyond is about to get (or already getting) some nasty weather again today.

Quoting 891. daddyjames:


Top o' the morning to you hydrus, how are things in your neck of the woods?
52 degrees with low humidity. Getting a bit behind in the rainfall department. Checking the long range to see if we will have a stormy fall and winter. I am hanging in there but swamped with work.
Quoting 896. hydrus:
Notice the Western Caribbean Sea.



Morning hydrus..
I don't have access to the pressure readings that stormpetrol posted last night..
But noticed several areas of lower pressures in that area..
Good morning everyone...



Quoting 898. StormTrackerScott:


Just because your location is dry doesn't mean the rest of are. Infact the only dry county in FL is Brevard County all other areas are well above average for rainfall really since April 1st.


Remember, all weather, like politics, is local.
905. VR46L
Quoting 898. StormTrackerScott:


Just because your location is dry doesn't mean the rest of are. Infact the only dry county in FL is Brevard County all other areas are well above average for rainfall really since April 1st.


But Alot of Floridians seem to want the wet season to not stop ...
Quoting 901. hydrus:
52 degrees with low humidity. Getting a bit behind in the rainfall department. Checking the long range to see if we will have a stormy fall and winter. I am hanging in there but swamped with work.


whoo - a bit brisk outside this morning! Better swamped with work than rain, although you don't necessarily want to fall behind in either. :)
Quoting 895. StormTrackerScott:



Yeah I agree especially now since all the models develope atleast an area of weak low pressure in the Gulf. Also the models are indicating several lows forming in the Gulf & Caribbean and riding NE over FL and the NW Bahamas. Fact of the matter is a very active pattern is setting up for FL one which could create a very dangerous flood threat down the road.




Models unsure where in the GOM to send the CARIB feature.
908. VR46L
Quoting 903. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Good morning everyone...





Should see some of those drough areas colours change on the next two maps .
Quoting 905. VR46L:


But Alot of Floridians seem to want the wet season to not stop ...


I will take all the rain I can get. Sitting at 52" for year here north of Orlando but as we all know the dry season is about 6 weeks away.
910. VR46L
Africa looks on shut down... The only cloud I could find

Quoting 907. redwagon:




Models unsure where in the GOM to send the CARIB feature.


We are going to see multiple lows form. Look at the Euro here at day 10. It shows one low over FL and another in the BOC.

The pattern we are entering here in FL is worrisome as the train of storms crossing the state is about to occur and I am willing to bet our days of a major NOT hitting the US are about to come to an end of the next several weeks.
914. yoboi
Quoting 905. VR46L:


But Alot of Floridians seem to want the wet season to not stop ...


Lol.....
Quoting 911. StormTrackerScott:


We are going to see multiple lows form. Look at the Euro here at day 10. It shows one low over FL and another in the BOC.



Yeah, the last thing you want to see - going into October - is the BOC/GOM being the center of activity for the hurricane season . . .
Quoting 911. StormTrackerScott:


We are going to see multiple lows form. Look at the Euro here at day 10. It shows one low over FL and another in the BOC.



Well, our 10-day in Austin is 20,20,20,50,70,40,0,50,40,40% so *something* must be coming.
Quoting 912. StormTrackerScott:
The pattern we are entering here in FL is worrisome as the train of storms crossing the state is about to occur and I am willing to bet our days of a major NOT hitting the US are about to come to an end of the next several weeks.
I'll believe it when I see it. Last major to cross the state was Wilma which was 8 years ago. I suppose we will see one make landfall again I just don't know when.
Quoting 915. daddyjames:


Yeah, the last thing you want to see - going into October - is the BOC/GOM being the center of activity for the hurricane season . . .


Seeing the Gulf and Caribbean being the focus of activity is concerning now that we going into the end of September.
Quoting 910. VR46L:
Africa looks on shut down... The only cloud I could find

I was always skeptical about an active Cape-Verde season, I said that this year look closer to home for development. I mean the activity in that region from the last 3 years has been somewhat hyperactive, so that is energy well spent and burnt out. Now that energy is focused elsewhere.
Morning VR,27windows,hydrus,scott,allan,GT,yoboi and everyone lurking.. :)
I am waiting for a new post from Dr. Masters..
Should be very interesting as poor Mexico has taken it on the chin..
And,in my eyes, several areas of interest lurking..
I expect the five day forecasts from the NHC to start to become more forthcoming..
Also, I am very interested in Dr. Masters mention of his posting on his experience in Gilbert as he stated a couple of posts ago..

Quoting 864. superpete:
T wave approaching 55 W with a decent amount of convection.Certainly a low-rider with a possibility to watch down the road.Conditions dont look that good for development, until it passes 70 west

CaribBoy - Should miss you by a good margin



As usual.
Quoting 913. daddyjames:




You mean a Wilma-type. CARIB water is the hottest around, wouldn't take much of a wave to spin up, what with all the instability Ingrid has left in her wake.
Getting warmer and warmer each passing day. Makes one wonder if El-Nino is finally coming.

It's alive:

AL, 09, 2013091612, , BEST, 0, 271N, 426W, 35, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ, 160, 0, 0, 100, 1015, 140, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, M,
925. 7544
morning all getting a little blobish from the antilies going west keeps one eye out there and close to home stay tuned
Morning guys looks like it just about right that its the Caribbean and BOC and GOM time to shine during the second half of season as I said I think see 1-2 more storms for the month the when Oct ome I'm expecting to see most of the storm development to occur in the Caribbean and mostly W of 70°W
Quoting 881. VR46L:


Shhh .. If he thinks there is a possibility he is not so grumpy ... If no possibility He gets Very grumpy....



No possibility with this one. Trinidad and Tobago will get rain again... but that's a normal situation being in september. Ours, though, IS NOT NORMAL! THAT DROUGHT IS NOT NORMAL AT ALL!!!!!
Quoting 924. Neapolitan:
It's alive:

AL, 09, 2013091612, , BEST, 0, 271N, 426W, 35, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ, 160, 0, 0, 100, 1015, 140, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, M,


Oh yeah Humberto is back alive advisories should start within 30-45mins
Quoting 923. StormTrackerScott:
Getting warmer and warmer each passing day. Makes one wonder if El-Nino is finally coming.



Anyway IT REALLY LOOKS LIKE EL NINO CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING IN THE MDR. AND THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL SEASON.
Quoting 925. 7544:
morning all getting a little blobish from the antilies going west keeps one eye out there and close to home stay tuned


Yeah look at this.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
323 AM EDT MON SEP 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...250 MB TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN GULF WILL SLIDE SLOWLY SE
KEEPING SRN SECTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FL AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS. EASTERLY LOW LVL FLOW AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH PWATS IN THE 1.9-2.0
RANGE WILL ALLOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS
TO REDEVELOP OVER E CENTRAL WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS
SRN SECTIONS. MID LYR STEERING FLOW WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO MOVE
INTO THE INTERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND WEST OF THE KISSIMMEE RIVER
THIS EVENING. CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS PORTIONS OF E
CENTRAL FL WILL ALSO LIKELY SET UP DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES
THAT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN PREFERRED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AREAS.
HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 80S COAST TO LOWER 90S
INTERIOR. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS IN
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES WITH AN EAST SWELL.

TONIGHT...LOW LVL ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE FOR ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
EXPECT 20 PCT CHANCE NRN COASTAL AREAS TO 30 PCT S CSTL WHERE
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL LINGER. LOWS IN THE 70S.

TUE-THU...STRONG ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS
A STRONGER SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY.

DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NW CARIBBEAN WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE TREASURE
COAST.
..WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AT
40-60 PERCENT BEFORE A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTH. HOW MUCH DRIER DIFFERS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF.

THE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL DAYS OF
BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND A FAST MOVING AND DIFFUSE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE PUSHING WELL INLAND BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS WILL
SHIFT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO THE WEST COAST BY EARLY
EVENING...THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
SHUT OFF THE POSSIBILITY OF ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE DAY.

FRI-MON...ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS IN
RESPONSE TO THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WEAKENING AND MOVING FURTHER INTO
THE ATLANTIC. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY AS TO THE DEGREE OF
DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS AND STEERING FLOW...BUT BOTH DO SHOW ENOUGH
TO KEEP POPS AT 20-30 PERCENT FRI AND SAT WITH MUCH WEAKER STEERING.

BY SUNDAY...BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK
LOW AROUND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
FEATURE WILL GET PICKED UP BY THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING
OFF THE EAST COAST AND LIFTED OUT TO THE NE ACROSS CUBA/SOUTH
FL/BAHAMAS IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. REGARDLESS OF HOW THIS
FEATURE DEVELOPS...IT APPEARS MODELS ARE GOING TOWARDS A WETTER
PERIOD SUN-TUES AND HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO REFLECT THIS.
Quoting 925. 7544:
morning all getting a little blobish from the antilies going west keeps one eye out there and close to home stay tuned




Lotsa stuff to track now that we finally got that MJO out of our hair. All it did was raise dry air even higher so it could be even further dried out.
Quoting 922. redwagon:


You mean a Wilma-type. CARIB water is the hottest around, wouldn't take much of a wave to spin up, what with all the instability Ingrid has left in her wake.


LOL - took me a moment to realize that you were referencing what I said in #915.

Looks as if the moisture flow that will be established from "los gemelos mal" brings much needed rain into the high plains, but not until the second front arrives, as most of this accumulates in the last 48 hours.

Unfortunately, if this pans out - Mexico still has a lot more rain in its forecast. This is additional to what has already fallen.



Quoting 910. VR46L:
Africa looks on shut down... The only cloud I could find



It's OVER.

Quoting 912. StormTrackerScott:
The pattern we are entering here in FL is worrisome as the train of storms crossing the state is about to occur and I am willing to bet our days of a major NOT hitting the US are about to come to an end of the next several weeks.
Would you please explain when you post something like this. I read your posts, but you dont always provide any info on why you think an event will occur.
Quoting 932. redwagon:




Lotsa stuff to track now that we finally got that MJO out of our hair. All it did was raise dry air even higher so it could be even further dried out.


BTW that little blob down by Panama is where Carla formed 50 or so years ago.
Quoting 882. HurricaneHunterJoe:


Don't tell CaribBoy...it may break his heart


1 inch so far this september. Bored to death lol
Quoting 821. JrWeathermanFL:
I consider a 13/6/2 year to be normal. That's just my opinion. Only 4/4/2 left :P


Lol we won't get 2 majors.. but maybe 4 ugly 75MPH canes like INGRID
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Where are my PR mates?
942. 7544
Quoting 934. CaribBoy:


It's OVER.



agree now till oct ends look to the caribiean any thing could pop up at any time imo and dont forget we still did not have one major yet and oct is coming soon and it it just might happen down there .
Quoting 865. Torito:
Humberto still gaining convection, even though it is doing so slowly.



Looks like a strong outflow boundary line is squelching further convection and even the circulation.
Quoting CaribBoy:
Where are my PR mates?
I'm here..
Quoting 7544:


agree now till oct ends look to the caribiean any thing could pop up at any time imo and dont forget we still did not have one major yet and oct is coming soon and it it just might happen down there .
I'm looking forward for a Lenny in late October and NOvember,,who knows? Is that kind of a weird year....